Designing for Change: Minimizing the Impact of Changing Requirements in the Later Stages of a Spaceflight Software Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, B. Danette

1998-01-01

In the traditional 'waterfall' model of the software project life cycle, the Requirements Phase ends and flows into the Design Phase, which ends and flows into the Development Phase. Unfortunately, the process rarely, if ever, works so smoothly in practice. Instead, software developers often receive new requirements, or modifications to the original requirements, well after the earlier project phases have been completed. In particular, projects with shorter than ideal schedules are highly susceptible to frequent requirements changes, as the software requirements analysis phase is often forced to begin before the overall system requirements and top-level design are complete. This results in later modifications to the software requirements, even though the software design and development phases may be complete. Requirements changes received in the later stages of a software project inevitably lead to modification of existing developed software. Presented here is a series of software design techniques that can greatly reduce the impact of last-minute requirements changes. These techniques were successfully used to add built-in flexibility to two complex software systems in which the requirements were expected to (and did) change frequently. These large, real-time systems were developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to test and control the Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) instrument which flew aboard the space shuttle Discovery as the primary payload on the STS-64 mission.

Projecting technological change

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog

2007-01-01

Improving efficiency in the use of both wood and nonwood inputs has characterized the US forest sector over the last 50 years. This chapter explores methods used to reflect this pattern of technological change and others in the Timber Assessment Projection System models. The development and use of three types of technology projection methods are explained: (1)...

75 FR 6168 - Angeles National Forest, California; Tehachapi Renewable Transmission Project, Supplemental Draft...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-08

... project changes affecting National Forest System (NFS) lands. After the public review period for the SDEIS... square miles of NFS lands in the Angeles National Forest between August 26, 2009 and October 16, 2009... assess the impacts of the Station Fire. In addition, project changes affecting NFS lands, which may...

Western water and climate change.

PubMed

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

2015-12-01

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Assessing the vulnerability of watersheds to climate change: results of national forest watershed vulnerability pilot assessments

Treesearch

Michael J. Furniss; Ken B. Roby; Dan Cenderelli; John Chatel; Caty F. Clifton; Alan Clingenpeel; Polly E. Hays; Dale Higgins; Ken Hodges; Carol Howe; Laura Jungst; Joan Louie; Christine Mai; Ralph Martinez; Kerry Overton; Brian P. Staab; Rory Steinke; Mark Weinhold

2013-01-01

Existing models and predictions project serious changes to worldwide hydrologic processes as a result of global climate change. Projections indicate that significant change may threaten National Forest System watersheds that are an important source of water used to support people, economies, and ecosystems.Wildland managers are expected to anticipate and...

NICA project management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashashin, M. V.; Kekelidze, D. V.; Kostromin, S. A.; Korenkov, V. V.; Kuniaev, S. V.; Morozov, V. V.; Potrebenikov, Yu. K.; Trubnikov, G. V.; Philippov, A. V.

2016-09-01

The science projects growth, changing of the efficiency criteria during the project implementation require not only increasing of the management specialization level but also pose the problem of selecting the effective planning methods, monitoring of deadlines and interaction of participants involved in research projects. This paper is devoted to choosing the project management information system for the new heavy-ion collider NICA (Nuclotron based Ion Collider fAcility). We formulate the requirements for the project management information system with taking into account the specifics of the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Dubna, Russia) as an international intergovernmental research organization, which is developed on the basis of a flexible and effective information system for the NICA project management.

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Treesearch

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

2012-01-01

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

2018-01-01

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

SPIRES (Stanford Public Information REtrieval System). Annual Report (2d, 1968).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Edwin B.; And Others

During 1968 the name of the project was changed from Stanford Physics Information Retrieval System" to "Stanford Public Information Retrieval System" to reflect the broadening of perspective and goals due to formal collaboration with Project BALLOTS (Bibliographic Automation of Large Library Operations using a Time-Sharing System).…

Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Cayan, D.R.

2004-01-01

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300-2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300-2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; Harrison, Laura; Funk, Chris; Lombardozzi, Danica; Goodale, Christine

2016-03-01

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land-atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in some parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

DOE PAGES

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; ...

2016-03-09

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO 2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in somemore » parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Lastly, our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.« less

Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2015-12-01

Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change impacts on runoff, sediment, and nutrient loads in an agricultural watershed in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected climate change can impact various aspects of agricultural systems, including the nutrient and sediment loads exported from agricultural fields. This study evaluated the potential changes in runoff, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads using projected climate estimates from 2041 – 2070 ...

Changing the world: the design and implementation of comprehensive continuous integrated systems of care for individuals with co-occurring disorders.

PubMed

Minkoff, Kenneth; Cline, Christie A

2004-12-01

This article has described the CCISC model and the process of implementation of systemic implementation of co-occurring disorder services enhancements within the context of existing resources. Four projects were described as illustrations of current implementation activities. Clearly, there is need for improved services for these individuals, and increasing recognition of the need for systemic change models that are effective and efficient. The CCISC model has been recognized by SAMHSA as a consensus best practice for system design, and initial efforts at implementation appear to be promising. The existing toolkit may permit a more formal process of data-driven evaluation of system, program, clinician, and client outcomes, to better measure the effectiveness of this approach. Some projects have begun such formal evaluation processes, but more work is needed, not only with individual projects, but also to develop opportunities for multi-system evaluation, as more projects come on line.

Clinical nurse specialist education: actualizing the systems leadership competency.

PubMed

Thompson, Cathy J; Nelson-Marten, Paula

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article was to show how sequenced educational strategies aid in the acquisition of systems leadership and change agent skills, as well as other essential skills for professional clinical nurse specialist (CNS) practice. Clinical nurse specialist education offers the graduate student both didactic and clinical experiences to help the student transition into the CNS role. Clinical nurse specialist faculty have a responsibility to prepare students for the realities of advanced practice. Systems leadership is an integral competency of CNS practice. The contemporary CNS is to be a leader in the translation of evidence into practice. To assist students to acquire this competency, all CNS students are expected to use research and other sources of evidence to identify, design, implement, and evaluate a specific practice change. Anecdotal comments from students completing the projects are offered. Student projects have been focused in acute and critical care, palliative care, and adult/gerontologic health clinical settings; community outreach has been the focus of a few change projects. Examples of student projects related to the systems leadership competency and correlated to the spheres of influence impacted are presented.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Terry R.

2011-01-01

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Technological changes in the healthcare sector. A method to assess change readiness.

PubMed

Kristensen, M; Nøhr, C

2000-01-01

This paper describes the theory, method and recent results of a study developing methods for assessment of change readiness. The empirical focus is on development and implementation of clinical IT systems in the Danish healthcare sector. To assess change readiness, a questionnaire has been developed. The questionnaire has been tested in a hospital department as a part of a pre analysis related to development and implementation of an IT quality assurance system. The study shows a general positive attitude to the IT system and the organisational changes, related to the implementation and use of the system. It also supplies the project organisation with specific information, useful to the project organisation to continue the essential dialogue with the healthcare professionals during the change process. Furthermore it provides a useful tool for planning the ongoing developing processes. Several other healthcare organisations are at the moment entering the study.

Teaching a Systems Approach: An Innovative Quality Improvement Project.

PubMed

Hamrin, Vanya; Vick, Rose; Brame, Cynthia; Simmons, Megan; Smith, Letizia; Vanderhoef, Dawn

2016-04-01

Nurse practitioners are required to navigate complex health care systems. Quality improvement (QI) projects provide the opportunity for nurse practitioner students to learn systems knowledge and improve health care outcomes in patient populations. A gap in the literature exists around how to systematically teach, apply, and measure QI curricular objectives at the master's level. Six faculty evaluated the QI project for the psychiatric nurse practitioner master's program by identifying the most challenging QI concepts for students to apply, revising their teaching strategies to address gaps, and retrospectively evaluating the outcomes of these curriculum changes by comparing student outcomes before and after the curricular changes. A significant difference was noted on QI project performance between students in the 2014 and 2015 graduating classes, measured by the scores earned on students' final papers (t[92] = 1.66, p = .05, d = .34, r(2) = .0289). Theoretical principles of adult and cooperative learning were used to inform curricular changes to enhance student's acquisition of QI skills. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Building Communities, Changing Lives: The NYC Justice Corps Community Benefit Projects. Reentry Research in the First Person

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prisoner Reentry Institute, 2017

2017-01-01

The NYC Justice Corps aims to change the dynamic between justice system-involved young adults and the communities in which they live. At the heart of the program are community benefit projects -- from renovation and restoration projects to educational and arts initiatives -- designed and carried out by Corps members. Community benefit projects…

Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogacheva, Yana; Panenkov, Andrey; Petrikova, Zinaida; Nezhnikova, Ekaterina

2018-03-01

Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Linking climate change and karst hydrology to evaluate species vulnerability: The Edwards and Madison aquifers (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, B. J.; Long, A. J.; Stamm, J. F.; Poteet, M.; Symstad, A.

2013-12-01

Karst aquifers present an extreme case of flow along structurally variable pathways, making them highly dynamic systems and therefore likely to respond rapidly to climate change. In turn, many biological communities and ecosystems associated with karst are sensitive to hydrologic changes. We explored how three sites in the Edwards aquifer (Texas) and two sites in the Madison aquifer (South Dakota) might respond to projected climate change from 2011 to 2050. Ecosystems associated with these karst aquifers support federally listed endangered and threatened species and state-listed species of concern, including amphibians, birds, insects, and plants. The vulnerability of selected species associated with projected climate change was assessed. The Advanced Research Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate projected climate at a 36-km grid spacing for three weather stations near the study sites, using boundary and initial conditions from the global climate model Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and an A2 emissions scenario. Daily temperature and precipitation projections from the WRF model were used as input for the hydrologic Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow (RRAWFLOW) model and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) model. RRAWFLOW is a lumped-parameter model that simulates hydrologic response at a single site, combining the responses of quick and slow flow that commonly characterize karst aquifers. CCVI uses historical and projected climate and hydrologic metrics to determine the vulnerability of selected species on the basis of species exposure to climate change, sensitivity to factors associated with climate change, and capacity to adapt to climate change. An upward trend in temperature was projected for 2011-2050 at all three weather stations; there was a trend (downward) in annual precipitation only for the weather station in Texas. A downward trend in mean annual spring flow or groundwater level was projected for all of the Edwards sites, but there was no significant trend for the Madison sites. Of 16 Edwards aquifer species evaluated (four amphibians, six arthropods, one fish, one mollusk, and four plants), 12 were scored as highly or moderately vulnerable under the projected climate change scenario. In contrast, all of the 8 Madison aquifer species evaluated (two mammals, one bird, one mollusk, and four plants) were scored as moderately vulnerable, stable, or intermediate between the two. The inclusion of hydrologic projections in the vulnerability assessment was essential for interpreting the effects of climate change on aquatic species of conservations concern, such as endemic salamanders. The linkage of climate, hydrologic, and vulnerability models provided a bridge to project the effects of global climate change on local karst aquifer and stream systems and selected species.

Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

2013-01-01

We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

2016-11-01

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

Real-time operating system for selected Intel processors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pool, W. R.

1980-01-01

The rationale for system development is given along with reasons for not using vendor supplied operating systems. Although many system design and performance goals were dictated by problems with vendor supplied systems, other goals surfaced as a result of a design for a custom system able to span multiple projects. System development and management problems and areas that required redesign or major code changes for system implementation are examined as well as the relative successes of the initial projects. A generic description of the actual project is provided and the ongoing support requirements and future plans are discussed.

"Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis

2017-04-01

In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

Monitoring Seasons Through Global Learning Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Robin, J. H.; Jeffries, M. O.; Gordon, L. S.; Verbyla, D. L.; Levine, E. R.

2006-12-01

Monitoring Seasons through Global Learning Communities (MSTGLC) is an inquiry- and project-based project that monitors seasons, specifically their interannual variability, in order to increase K-12 students' understanding of the Earth system by providing teacher professional development in Earth system science and inquiry, and engaging K-12 students in Earth system science research relevant to their local communities that connect globally. MSTGLC connects GLOBE students, teachers, and communities, with educators and scientists from three integrated Earth systems science programs: the International Arctic Research Center, and NASA Landsat Data Continuity and Terra Satellite Missions. The project organizes GLOBE schools by biomes into eight Global Learning Communities (GLCs) and students monitor their seasons through regional based field campaigns. The project expands the current GLOBE phenology network by adapting current protocols and making them biome-specific. In addition, ice and mosquito phenology protocols will be developed for Arctic and Tropical regions, respectively. Initially the project will focus on Tundra and Taiga biomes as phenological changes are so pronounced in these regions. However, our long-term goal is to determine similar changes in other biomes (Deciduous Forest, Desert, Grasslands, Rain Forest, Savannah and Shrubland) based upon what we learn from these two biomes. This project will also contribute to critically needed Earth system science data such as in situ ice, mosquito, and vegetation phenology measurements for ground validations of remotely sensed data, which are essential for regional climate change impact assessments. Additionally it will contribute environmental data critical to prevention and management of diseases such as malaria in Asian, African, and other countries. Furthermore, this project will enable students to participate in the International Polar Year (IPY) (2007-2009) through field campaigns conducted by students in polar regions, and web chats between IPY scientists and GLOBE students from all eight GLCs that include non-polar countries.

Reengineering the Project Design Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casani, E.; Metzger, R.

1994-01-01

In response to NASA's goal of working faster, better and cheaper, JPL has developed extensive plans to minimize cost, maximize customer and employee satisfaction, and implement small- and moderate-size missions. These plans include improved management structures and processes, enhanced technical design processes, the incorporation of new technology, and the development of more economical space- and ground-system designs. The Laboratory's new Flight Projects Implementation Office has been chartered to oversee these innovations and the reengineering of JPL's project design process, including establishment of the Project Design Center and the Flight System Testbed. Reengineering at JPL implies a cultural change whereby the character of its design process will change from sequential to concurrent and from hierarchical to parallel. The Project Design Center will support missions offering high science return, design to cost, demonstrations of new technology, and rapid development. Its computer-supported environment will foster high-fidelity project life-cycle development and cost estimating.

Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

2017-01-01

The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

Reconfigurable microfluidic pump enabled by opto-electrical-thermal transduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takeuchi, Masaru; Hagiwara, Masaya; Haulot, Gauvain; Ho, Chih-Ming

2013-10-01

Flexible integration of a microfluidic system comprising pumps, valves, and microchannels was realized by an optoelectronic reconfigurable microchannels (OERM) technique. Projecting a low light fluidic device pattern—e.g., pumps, valves, and channels—onto an OERM platform generates Joule heating and melts the substrate in the bright area on the platform; thus, the fluidic system can be reconfigured by changing the projected light pattern. Hexadecane was used as the substrate of the microfluidic system. The volume change of hexadecane during the liquid-solid phase transition was utilized to generate pumping pressure. The system can pump nanoliters of water within several seconds.

Enhancing the Reflexivity of System Innovation Projects with System Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Mierlo, Barbara; Arkesteijn, Marlen; Leeuwis, Cees

2010-01-01

Networks aiming for fundamental changes bring together a variety of actors who are part and parcel of a problematic context. These system innovation projects need to be accompanied by a monitoring and evaluation approach that supports and maintains reflexivity to be able to deal with uncertainties and conflicts while challenging current practices…

Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

PubMed

Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-12-01

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Dynamic systems and the role of evaluation: The case of the Green Communities project.

PubMed

Anzoise, Valentina; Sardo, Stefania

2016-02-01

The crucial role evaluation can play in the co-development of project design and its implementation will be addressed through the analysis of a case study, the Green Communities (GC) project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Environment within the EU Interregional Operational Program (2007-2013) "Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency". The project's broader goals included an attempt to trigger a change in Italian local development strategies, especially for mountain and inland areas, which would be tailored to the real needs of communities, and based on a sustainable exploitation and management of the territorial assets. The goal was not achieved, and this paper addresses the issues of how GC could have been more effective in fostering a vision of change, and which design adaptations and evaluation procedures would have allowed the project to better cope with the unexpected consequences and resistances it encountered. The conclusions drawn are that projects should be conceived, designed and carried out as dynamic systems, inclusive of a dynamic and engaged evaluation enabling the generation of feedbacks loops, iteratively interpreting the narratives and dynamics unfolding within the project, and actively monitoring the potential of various relationships among project participants for generating positive social change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

2014-05-01

Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

New identities: the changing profile of patients with cancer, their families, and their professional caregivers.

PubMed

Boyle, D M

1994-01-01

To discuss and project cancer care needs and a vision of oncology nursing in the next century. Scholarly, professional, and governmental sources of information. Projections of a changed patient/family profile, social support dilemmas, and a new "hybrid" oncology nurse. Opportunities for nurses, resulting from these projections, include roles as minority needs specialist, director of new care-delivery models, facilitator of intergenerational support teams, overseer of neighborhood-based care systems, multispecialty nursing care provider, cancer care policy activist. Nursing education, community models, and current care-delivery settings will all be affected by the projected changes and will all need to consider adjusting to meet the demands that will be placed on them to facilitate change.

Dryden Flight Research Center Critical Chain Project Management Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hines, Dennis O.

2012-01-01

In Fiscal Year 2011 Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) implemented a new project management system called Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM). Recent NASA audits have found that the Dryden workforce is strained under increasing project demand and that multi-tasking has been carried to a whole new level at Dryden. It is very common to have an individual work on 10 different projects during a single pay period. Employee surveys taken at Dryden have identified work/life balance as the number one issue concerning employees. Further feedback from the employees indicated that project planning is the area needing the most improvement. In addition, employees have been encouraged to become more innovative, improve job skills, and seek ways to improve overall job efficiency. In order to deal with these challenges, DFRC management decided to adopt the CCPM system that is specifically designed to operate in a resource constrained multi-project environment. This paper will discuss in detail the rationale behind the selection of CCPM and the goals that will be achieved through this implementation. The paper will show how DFRC is tailoring the CCPM system to the flight research environment as well as laying out the implementation strategy. Results of the ongoing implementation will be discussed as well as change management challenges and organizational cultural changes. Finally this paper will present some recommendations on how this system could be used by selected NASA projects or centers.

Global Change Encyclopedia - A project for the international space year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J.; Simard, R.; Manore, M.; Baker, R.; Clark, D.; Kineman, J.; Allen, J.; Ruzek, M.

1991-01-01

'Global Change Encyclopedia' is a project for the International Space Year in 1992. The project will produce a comprehensive set of satellite and other global data with relevance to studies of global change and of the earth as a system. These data will be packaged on CD-ROMs, accompanied by appropriate software for access, display and manipulation. On behalf of the Canadian Space Agency, the project is being carried out by the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration as major contributors. This paper highlights the background leading to the project, the concept and principal characteristics of the Encyclopedia itself, and the current status and plans.

Impact of agile methodologies on team capacity in automotive radio-navigation projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prostean, G.; Hutanu, A.; Volker, S.

2017-01-01

The development processes used in automotive radio-navigation projects are constantly under adaption pressure. While the software development models are based on automotive production processes, the integration of peripheral components into an automotive system will trigger a high number of requirement modifications. The use of traditional development models in automotive industry will bring team’s development capacity to its boundaries. The root cause lays in the inflexibility of actual processes and their adaption limits. This paper addresses a new project management approach for the development of radio-navigation projects. The understanding of weaknesses of current used models helped us in development and integration of agile methodologies in traditional development model structure. In the first part we focus on the change management methods to reduce request for change inflow. Established change management risk analysis processes enables the project management to judge the impact of a requirement change and also gives time to the project to implement some changes. However, in big automotive radio-navigation projects the saved time is not enough to implement the large amount of changes, which are submitted to the project. In the second phase of this paper we focus on increasing team capacity by integrating at critical project phases agile methodologies into the used traditional model. The overall objective of this paper is to prove the need of process adaption in order to solve project team capacity bottlenecks.

MISST: The Multi-Sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

climate change studies, fisheries management, and a wide range of other applications. Measurements are taken by several satellites carrying infrared and...TEMPERATURE PROJECT ABSTRACT. Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are vital to global weather prediction, climate change studies, fisheries management...important variables related to the global ocean-atmosphere system. It is a key indicator of climate change , is widely applied to studies of upper

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Heating Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shenchao; Yang, Yanchun; Liu, Yude; Zhang, Peng; Li, Siwei

2018-01-01

It is effective to reduce haze in winter by changing the distributed heat supply system. Thus, the studies on comprehensive index system and scientific evaluation method of distributed heat supply project are essential. Firstly, research the influence factors of heating modes, and an index system with multiple dimension including economic, environmental, risk and flexibility was built and all indexes were quantified. Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP was put forward to analyze the proposed multiple and comprehensive index system. Lastly, the case study suggested that supplying heat with electricity has great advantage and promotional value. The comprehensive index system of distributed heating supply project and evaluation method in this paper can evaluate distributed heat supply project effectively and provide scientific support for choosing the distributed heating project.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

EPA Science Inventory

Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this stud...

An ECG Lab Project for Teaching Signal Conditioning Systems in a Master's Degree in Mechatronic Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martín, Francisco Javier Ferrero; Martínez, Alberto López; Llopis, Marta Valledor; Rodriguez, Juan Carlos Campo; Viejo, Cecilio Blanco; Vershinin, Yuri A.

2015-01-01

Ongoing technological progress in measurement systems triggered the development of an in­novative, hands-on teaching program to help students toward a fuller understanding of recent changes in the field. This paper presents a lab project that links theoretical principles with the practical issues of signal conditioning systems. This is…

The NASA Advanced Space Power Systems Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Carolyn R.; Hoberecht, Mark A.; Bennett, William R.; Lvovich, Vadim F.; Bugga, Ratnakumar

2015-01-01

The goal of the NASA Advanced Space Power Systems Project is to develop advanced, game changing technologies that will provide future NASA space exploration missions with safe, reliable, light weight and compact power generation and energy storage systems. The development effort is focused on maturing the technologies from a technology readiness level of approximately 23 to approximately 56 as defined in the NASA Procedural Requirement 7123.1B. Currently, the project is working on two critical technology areas: High specific energy batteries, and regenerative fuel cell systems with passive fluid management. Examples of target applications for these technologies are: extending the duration of extravehicular activities (EVA) with high specific energy and energy density batteries; providing reliable, long-life power for rovers with passive fuel cell and regenerative fuel cell systems that enable reduced system complexity. Recent results from the high energy battery and regenerative fuel cell technology development efforts will be presented. The technical approach, the key performance parameters and the technical results achieved to date in each of these new elements will be included. The Advanced Space Power Systems Project is part of the Game Changing Development Program under NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate.

A retrospective review of required projects in systems-based practice in a single anesthesiology residency: a 10-year experience.

PubMed

Sakai, Tetsuro; Emerick, Trent D; Patel, Rita M

2015-09-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education has emphasized in its core competencies and more recently, in its Milestones Project, that residents understand the importance of systems-based practice (SBP). The objectives of the study are to evaluate the quality of residents' SBP projects and to determine the degrees that were subsequently implemented. A retrospective educational observational study. A university-based anesthesiology training institution. One hundred forty-nine anesthesiology residents in their final (postgraduate year 4) year of training who completed SBP projects for the last 10 years (2004-2013). A structured SBP course was provided for postgraduate year 4 anesthesiology residents with deadlines set such as project identification, data collection, and proposal draft. Each resident's written SBP proposal received inputs by 2 members of the department executive steering committee. The SBP projects concluded with oral presentations by each resident to the department executive steering committee, who provided overall scores. All SBP projects were categorized into 7 categories: safety initiatives, economic analysis, process analysis, policy change recommendations, education initiatives, teamwork/communication, and operating room efficiency. Evaluation scores using a Likert scale (1-9, where 9 is the best) were analyzed. The rate of implementation of project ideas within the department based on the presentations to the executive committee was examined. Of 149 projects, policy change recommendations was the most frequently chosen category (46 projects; 30.9%), followed by process analysis (36 projects; 24.2%). The overall evaluation score was 7.6 ± 0.6 (mean ± SD). A total of 53 projects (35.6%) were implemented in the department. There was no statistical difference between SBPs with implementation vs SBPs without implementation in terms of evaluation scores, year of the presentation, or categories. This SBP project has given residents the opportunity to participate in a hospital system change aiming to improve efficiency and safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Influences of water quality and climate on the water-energy nexus: A spatial comparison of two water systems.

PubMed

Stang, Shannon; Wang, Haiying; Gardner, Kevin H; Mo, Weiwei

2018-07-15

As drinking water supply systems plan for sustainable management practices, impacts from future water quality and climate changes are a major concern. This study aims to understand the intraannual changes of energy consumption for water treatment, investigate the relative importance of water quality and climate indicators on energy consumption for water treatment, and predict the effects of climate change on the embodied energy of treated, potable water at two municipal drinking water systems located in the northeast and southeast US. To achieve this goal, a life cycle assessment was first performed to quantify the monthly energy consumption in the two drinking water systems. Regression and relative importance analyses were then performed between climate indicators, raw water quality indicators, and chemical and energy usages in the treatment processes to determine their correlations. These relationships were then used to project changes in embodied energy associated with the plants' processes, and the results were compared between the two regions. The projections of the southeastern US water plant were for an increase in energy demand resulted from an increase of treatment chemical usages. The northeastern US plant was projected to decrease its energy demand due to a reduced demand for heating the plant's infrastructure. The findings indicate that geographic location and treatment process may determine the way climate change affects drinking water systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Northwest Ohio crop yield benefits of water capture and subirrigation based on future climate change projections

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change projections for the Midwest U.S. indicate increased growing season crop water deficits in the future that will adversely impact the sustainability of agricultural production. Systems that capture water on site for later subirrigation use have potential as a climate adaptation strateg...

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Fawcett, Stephen B; Spiegel, Jerry; Tovalin, Horacio

2016-09-01

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perotti, Jose M.

2015-01-01

The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

Advancing the practice of systems engineering at JPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jansma, Patti A.; Jones, Ross M.

2006-01-01

In FY 2004, JPL launched an initiative to improve the way it practices systems engineering. The Lab's senior management formed the Systems Engineering Advancement (SEA) Project in order to "significantly advance the practice and organizational capabilities of systems engineering at JPL on flight projects and ground support tasks." The scope of the SEA Project includes the systems engineering work performed in all three dimensions of a program, project, or task: 1. the full life-cycle, i.e., concept through end of operations 2. the full depth, i.e., Program, Project, System, Subsystem, Element (SE Levels 1 to 5) 3. the full technical scope, e.g., the flight, ground and launch systems, avionics, power, propulsion, telecommunications, thermal, etc. The initial focus of their efforts defined the following basic systems engineering functions at JPL: systems architecture, requirements management, interface definition, technical resource management, system design and analysis, system verification and validation, risk management, technical peer reviews, design process management and systems engineering task management, They also developed a list of highly valued personal behaviors of systems engineers, and are working to inculcate those behaviors into members of their systems engineering community. The SEA Project is developing products, services, and training to support managers and practitioners throughout the entire system lifecycle. As these are developed, each one needs to be systematically deployed. Hence, the SEA Project developed a deployment process that includes four aspects: infrastructure and operations, communication and outreach, education and training, and consulting support. In addition, the SEA Project has taken a proactive approach to organizational change management and customer relationship management - both concepts and approaches not usually invoked in an engineering environment. This paper'3 describes JPL's approach to advancing the practice of systems engineering at the Lab. It describes the general approach used and how they addressed the three key aspects of change: people, process and technology. It highlights a list of highly valued personal behaviors of systems engineers, discusses the various products, services and training that were developed, describes the deployment approach used, and concludes with several lessons learned.

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Dadson, Simon J.; Prudhomme, Christel; Whitehead, Paul G.

2016-11-01

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by -4% (-16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Organizational Problems of Nutrition in the Context of Modernization of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Platonovaa, Raisa I.; Lebedeva, Uljana M.; Cherkashina, Anna G.; Ammosova, Liliya I.; Dokhunaeva, Alyona V.

2016-01-01

The realization of the project of regional educational systems' modernization was started in 2011. The main goal of the project is to achieve systemic positive changes in the school education, improving of learning conditions, increasing of openness, availability, efficiency of General education, introduction of modern educational technologies. In…

Production application of injection-molded diffractive elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter P.; Chao, Yvonne Y.; Hines, Kevin P.

1995-12-01

We demonstrate that transmission kinoforms for visible light applications can be injection molded in acrylic in production volumes. A camera is described that employs molded Fresnel lenses to change the convergence of a projection ranging system. Kinoform surfaces are used in the projection system to achromatize the Fresnel lenses.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate.

PubMed

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A; Olden, Julian D; Smith, Scott S; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Piorkowski, Robert J; McPhedran, John

2008-06-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

2008-01-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Critical Education for Systemic Change: A World-Systems Analysis Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Tom G.

2015-01-01

This paper both draws on, and seeks to apply, world-systems analysis to a broad, critical education project that builds mass schooling's potential contribution to the process of world-systemic change. In short, this is done by first setting out the world-systems analysis account of the current state, and period of transition, of the capitalist…

Western water and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-01-01

In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Requirements Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C.A. Kouts

2006-05-10

The CRD addresses the requirements of Department of Energy (DOE) Order 413.3-Change 1, ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets'', by providing the Secretarial Acquisition Executive (Level 0) scope baseline and the Program-level (Level 1) technical baseline. The Secretarial Acquisition Executive approves the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management's (OCRWM) critical decisions and changes against the Level 0 baseline; and in turn, the OCRWM Director approves all changes against the Level 1 baseline. This baseline establishes the top-level technical scope of the CRMWS and its three system elements, as described in section 1.3.2. The organizations responsible formore » design, development, and operation of system elements described in this document must therefore prepare subordinate project-level documents that are consistent with the CRD. Changes to requirements will be managed in accordance with established change and configuration control procedures. The CRD establishes requirements for the design, development, and operation of the CRWMS. It specifically addresses the top-level governing laws and regulations (e.g., ''Nuclear Waste Policy Act'' (NWPA), 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 63, 10 CFR Part 71, etc.) along with specific policy, performance requirements, interface requirements, and system architecture. The CRD shall be used as a vehicle to incorporate specific changes in technical scope or performance requirements that may have significant program implications. Such may include changes to the program mission, changes to operational capability, and high visibility stakeholder issues. The CRD uses a systems approach to: (1) identify key functions that the CRWMS must perform, (2) allocate top-level requirements derived from statutory, regulatory, and programmatic sources, and (3) define the basic elements of the system architecture and operational concept. Project-level documents address CRD requirements by further defining system element functions, decomposing requirements into significantly greater detail, and developing designs of system components, facilities, and equipment. The CRD addresses the identification and control of functional, physical, and operational boundaries between and within CRWMS elements. The CRD establishes requirements regarding key interfaces between the CRWMS and elements external to the CRWMS. Project elements define interfaces between CRWMS program elements. The Program has developed a change management process consistent with DOE Order 413.3-Change 1. Changes to the Secretarial Acquisition Executive and Program-level baselines must be approved by a Program Baseline Change Control Board. Specific thresholds have been established for identifying technical, cost, and schedule changes that require approval. The CRWMS continually evaluates system design and operational concepts to optimize performance and/or cost. The Program has developed systems analysis tools to assess potential enhancements to the physical system and to determine the impacts from cost saving initiatives, scientific and technological improvements, and engineering developments. The results of systems analyses, if appropriate, are factored into revisions to the CRD as revised Programmatic Requirements.« less

Scenarios and Strategies for Vocational Education and Lifelong Learning in Europe: Summary of Findings and Conclusions of the Joint CEDEFOP/ETF Project (1998-2002). CEDEFOP Panorama Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sellin, Burkart

The scenarios project set out to develop a tool to improve understanding of vocational education and training (VET) systems in the linked contexts of economic and technological change; changes in society, work, and the labor market; and changing training/skills environment. Other key attempts at the European level to generate European scenarios…

Acute Total and Chronic Partial Sleep Deprivation: Effects on Neurobehavioral Functions, Waking EEG and Renin-Angiotensin System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dijk, Derk-Jan

1999-01-01

Total sleep deprivation leads to decrements in neurobehavioral performance and changes in electroencephalographic (EEG) oscillations as well as the incidence of slow eye movements ad detected in the electro-oculogram (EOG) during wakefulness. Although total sleep deprivation is a powerful tool to investigate the association of EEG/EOG and neurobehavioral decrements, sleep loss during space flight is usual only partial. Furthermore exposure to the microgravity environment leads to changes in sodium and volume homeostasis and associated renal and cardio-endocrine responses. Some of these changes can be induced in head down tilt bedrest studies. We integrate research tools and research projects to enhance the fidelity of the simulated conditions of space flight which are characterized by complexity and mutual interactions. The effectiveness of countermeasures and physiologic mechanisms underlying neurobehavioral changes and renal-cardio endocrine changes are investigated in Project 3 of the Human Performance Team and Project 3 of the Cardiovascular Alterations Team respectively. Although the. specific aims of these two projects are very different, they employ very similar research protocols. Thus, both projects investigate the effects of posture/bedrest and sleep deprivation (total or partial) on outcome measures relevant to their specific aims. The main aim of this enhancement grant is to exploit the similarities in research protocols by including the assessment of outcome variables relevant to the Renal-Cardio project in the research protocol of Project 3 of the Human Performance Team and by including the assessment of outcome variables relevant to the Quantitative EEG and Sleep Deprivation Project in the research protocols of Project 3 of the Cardiovascular Alterations team. In particular we will assess Neurobehavioral Function and Waking EEG in the research protocols of the renal-cardio endocrine project and renin-angiotensin and cardiac function in the research protocol of the Quantitative EEG and Waking Neurobehavioral Function project. This will allow us to investigate two additional specific aims: 1) Test the hypothesis that chronic partial sleep deprivation during a 17 day bed rest experiment results in deterioration of neurobehavioral function during waking and increases in EEG power density in the theta frequencies, especially in frontal areas of the brain, as well as the nonREM- REM cycle dependent modulation of heart-rate variability. 2) Test the hypothesis that acute total sleep deprivation modifies the circadian rhythm of the renin-angiotensin system, changes the acute responsiveness of this system to posture beyond what a microgravity environment alone does and affects the nonREM-REM cycle dependent modulation of heart-rate variability.

Overcoming the Challenges of Implementing a Multi-Mission Distributed Workflow System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sayfi, Elias; Cheng, Cecilia; Lee, Hyun; Patel, Rajesh; Takagi, Atsuya; Yu, Dan

2009-01-01

A multi-mission approach to solving the same problems for various projects is enticing. However, the multi-mission approach leads to the need to develop a configurable, adaptable and distributed system to meet unique project requirements. That, in turn, leads to a set of challenges varying from handling synchronization issues to coming up with a smart design that allows the "unknowns" to be decided later. This paper discusses the challenges that the Multi-mission Automated Task Invocation Subsystem (MATIS) team has come up against while designing the distributed workflow system, as well as elaborates on the solutions that were implemented. The first is to design an easily adaptable system that requires no code changes as a result of configuration changes. The number of formal deliveries is often limited because each delivery costs time and money. Changes such as the sequence of programs being called, a change of a parameter value in the program that is being automated should not result in code changes or redelivery.

Jet engine nozzle exit configurations, including projections oriented relative to pylons, and associated systems and methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengle, Vinod G. (Inventor); Thomas, Russell H. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

Nozzle exit configurations and associated systems and methods are disclosed. An aircraft system in accordance with one embodiment includes a jet engine exhaust nozzle having an internal flow surface and an exit aperture, with the exit aperture having a perimeter that includes multiple projections extending in an aft direction. Aft portions of individual neighboring projections are spaced apart from each other by a gap, and a geometric feature of the multiple can change in a monotonic manner along at least a portion of the perimeter. Projections near a support pylon and/or associated heat shield can have particular configurations, including greater flow immersion than other projections.

Advanced fuel system technology for utilizing broadened property aircraft fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reck, G. M.

1980-01-01

Possible changes in fuel properties are identified based on current trends and projections. The effect of those changes with respect to the aircraft fuel system are examined and some technological approaches to utilizing those fuels are described.

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Warrick, Jonathan; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Lovering, Jessica

2018-01-01

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented.

Theorising Systemic Change: Learning from the Academisation Project in England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rayner, Stephen M.; Courtney, Steven J.; Gunter, Helen M.

2018-01-01

The research reported in this article contributes new understandings of systemic change by studying the form of system redesign known in England as "academisation." The data illuminate tensions within the neoliberal policy complex that are surfaced in a single secondary school. Although several studies have described academy conversions…

Design and Implementation of Geothermal Energy Systems at West Chester University

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, James

West Chester University has launched a comprehensive transformation of its campus heating and cooling systems from traditional fossil fuels to geothermal. This change will significantly decrease the institution's carbon footprint and serve as a national model for green campus efforts. The institution has designed a phased series of projects to build a district geo-exchange system with shared well fields, central pumping station and distribution piping to provide the geo-exchange water to campus buildings as their internal building HVAC systems are changed to be able to use the geo-exchange water. This project addresses the US Department of Energy Office of Energymore » Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) goal to invest in clean energy technologies that strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. In addition, this project advances EERE's efforts to establish geothermal energy as an economically competitive contributor to the US energy supply.« less

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

What’s Needed from Climate Modeling to Advance Actionable Science for Water Utilities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J. J.; Anderson, C. J.; Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

2009-12-01

“…perfect information on climate change is neither available today nor likely to be available in the future, but … over time, as the threats climate change poses to our systems grow more real, predicting those effects with greater certainty is non-discretionary. We’re not yet at a level at which climate change projections can drive climate change adaptation.” (Testimony of WUCA Staff Chair David Behar to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 5, 2009) To respond to this challenge, the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) has sponsored a white paper titled “Options for Improving Climate Modeling to Assist Water Utility Planning for Climate Change. ” This report concerns how investments in the science of climate change, and in particular climate modeling and downscaling, can best be directed to help make climate projections more actionable. The meaning of “model improvement” can be very different depending on whether one is talking to a climate model developer or to a water manager trying to incorporate climate projections in to planning. We first surveyed the WUCA members on present and potential uses of climate model projections and on climate inputs to their various system models. Based on those surveys and on subsequent discussions, we identified four dimensions along which improvement in modeling would make the science more “actionable”: improved model agreement on change in key parameters; narrowing the range of model projections; providing projections at spatial and temporal scales that match water utilities system models; providing projections that water utility planning horizons. With these goals in mind we developed four options for improving global-scale climate modeling and three options for improving downscaling that will be discussed. However, there does not seem to be a single investment - the proverbial “magic bullet” -- which will substantially reduce the range of model projections at the scales at which utility planning is conducted. In the near term we feel strongly that water utilities and climate scientists should work together to leverage the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5; a coordinated set climate model experiments that will be used to support the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment) to better benefit water utilities. In the longer term, even with model and downscaling improvements, it is very likely that substantial uncertainty about future climate change at the desired spatial and temporal scales will remain. Nonetheless, there is no doubt the climate is changing, and the challenge is to work with what we have, or what we can reasonably expect to have in the coming years to make the best decisions we can.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...

Earth Observation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

For pipeline companies, mapping, facilities inventory, pipe inspections, environmental reporting, etc. is a monumental task. An Automated Mapping/Facilities Management/Geographic Information Systems (AM/FM/GIS) is the solution. However, this is costly and time consuming. James W. Sewall Company, an AM/FM/GIS consulting firm proposed an EOCAP project to Stennis Space Center (SSC) to develop a computerized system for storage and retrieval of digital aerial photography. This would provide its customer, Algonquin Gas Transmission Company, with an accurate inventory of rights-of-way locations and pipeline surroundings. The project took four years to complete and an important byproduct was SSC's Digital Aerial Rights-of-Way Monitoring System (DARMS). DARMS saves substantial time and money. EOCAP enabled Sewall to develop new products and expand its customer base. Algonquin now manages regulatory requirements more efficiently and accurately. EOCAP provides government co-funding to encourage private investment in and broader use of NASA remote sensing technology. Because changes on Earth's surface are accelerating, planners and resource managers must assess the consequences of change as quickly and accurately as possible. Pacific Meridian Resources and NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) developed a system for monitoring changes in land cover and use, which incorporated the latest change detection technologies. The goal of this EOCAP project was to tailor existing technologies to a system that could be commercialized. Landsat imagery enabled Pacific Meridian to identify areas that had sustained substantial vegetation loss. The project was successful and Pacific Meridian's annual revenues have substantially increased. EOCAP provides government co-funding to encourage private investment in and broader use of NASA remote sensing technology.

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W.

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning. PMID:24466116

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach tomore » establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.« less

Hanford tanks initiative (HTI) configuration management desk instruction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaus, P.S., Fluor Daniel Hanford

The purpose of the document is to provide working level directions for submitting requirements, making changes to the requirements database, and entering Project documentation into the HTI Project information and document management system.

Airspace Systems Program: Next Generation Air Transportation System Concepts and Technology Development FY2010 Project Plan Version 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopardekar, Parimal H.

2010-01-01

This document describes the FY2010 plan for the management and execution of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Concepts and Technology Development (CTD) Project. The document was developed in response to guidance from the Airspace Systems Program (ASP), as approved by the Associate Administrator of the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), and from guidelines in the Airspace Systems Program Plan. Congress established the multi-agency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) in 2003 to develop a vision for the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and to define the research required to enable it. NASA is one of seven agency partners contributing to the effort. Accordingly, NASA's ARMD realigned the Airspace Systems Program in 2007 to "directly address the fundamental research needs of the Next Generation Air Transportation System...in partnership with the member agencies of the JPDO." The Program subsequently established two new projects to meet this objective: the NextGen-Airspace Project and the NextGen-Airportal Project. Together, the projects will also focus NASA s technical expertise and world-class facilities to address the question of where, when, how and the extent to which automation can be applied to moving aircraft safely and efficiently through the NAS and technologies that address optimal allocation of ground and air technologies necessary for NextGen. Additionally, the roles and responsibilities of humans and automation influence in the NAS will be addressed by both projects. Foundational concept and technology research and development begun under the NextGen-Airspace and NextGen-Airportal projects will continue. There will be no change in NASA Research Announcement (NRA) strategy, nor will there be any change to NASA interfaces with the JPDO, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Research Transition Teams (RTTs), or other stakeholders

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Tank waste remediation system immobilized high-level waste storage project configuration management implementation plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgard, K.G.

This Configuration Management Implementation Plan was developed to assist in the management of systems, structures, and components, to facilitate the effective control and statusing of changes to systems, structures, and components; and to ensure technical consistency between design, performance, and operational requirements. Its purpose is to describe the approach Project W-464 will take in implementing a configuration management control, to determine the rigor of control, and to identify the mechanisms for imposing that control.This Configuration Management Implementation Plan was developed to assist in the management of systems, structures, and components, to facilitate the effective control and statusing of changes tomore » systems, structures, and components; and to ensure technical consistency between design, performance, and operational requirements. Its purpose is to describe the approach Project W-464 will take in implementing a configuration management control, to determine the rigor of control, and to identify the mechanisms for imposing that control.« less

Overview of NASA's Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephan, Ryan A.

2010-01-01

NASA's Constellation Program includes the Orion, Altair, and Lunar Surface Systems project offices. The first two elements, Orion and Altair, are manned space vehicles while the third element is broader and includes several sub-elements including Rovers and a Lunar Habitat. The upcoming planned missions involving these systems and vehicles include several risks and design challenges. Due to the unique thermal environment, many of these risks and challenges are associated with the vehicles' thermal control system. NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) includes the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP). ETDP consists of several technology development projects. The project chartered with mitigating the aforementioned risks and design challenges is the Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project. The risks and design challenges are addressed through a rigorous technology development process that culminates with an integrated thermal control system test. The resulting hardware typically has a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of six. This paper summarizes the development efforts being performed by the technology development project. The development efforts involve heat acquisition and heat rejection hardware including radiators, heat exchangers, and evaporators. The project has also been developing advanced phase change material heat sinks and performing assessments for thermal control system fluids.

Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 15, Course Summary and Project Presentation

EPA Science Inventory

This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

Sea-level Fingerprinting, Vertical Crustal Motion from GIA, and Projections of Relative Sea-level Change in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Thomas; Simon, Karen; Forbes, Donald; Dyke, Arthur; Mazzotti, Stephane

2010-05-01

We present projections of relative sea-level rise in the 21st century for communities in the Canadian Arctic. First, for selected communities, we determine the sea-level fingerprinting response from Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers and ice caps. Then, for various published projections of global sea-level change in the 21st century, we determine the local amount of "absolute" sea-level change. We next determine the vertical land motion arising from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and incorporate this into the estimates of absolute sea-level change to obtain projections of relative sea-level change. The sea-level fingerprinting effect is especially important in the Canadian Arctic owing to proximity to Arctic ice caps and especially to the Greenland ice sheet. Its effect is to reduce the range of projected relative sea-level change compared to the range of global sea-level projections. Vertical crustal motion is assessed through empirically derived regional isobases, the Earth's predicted response to ice-sheet loading and unloading by the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and Global Positioning System vertical velocities. Owing to the large rates of crustal uplift from glacial isostatic adjustment across a large region of central Arctic Canada, many communities are projected to experience relative sea-level fall despite projections of global sea-level rise. Where uplift rates are smaller, such as eastern Baffin Island and the western Canadian Arctic, sea-level is projected to rise.

Complex Systems and Educational Change: Towards a New Research Agenda

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemke, Jay L.; Sabelli, Nora H.

2008-01-01

How might we usefully apply concepts and procedures derived from the study of other complex dynamical systems to analyzing systemic change in education? In this article, we begin to define possible agendas for research toward developing systematic frameworks and shared terminology for such a project. We illustrate the plausibility of defining such…

The Social Process of Analyzing Real Water Resource Systems Plans and Management Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loucks, Daniel

2016-04-01

Developing and applying systems analysis methods for improving the development and management of real world water resource systems, I have learned, is primarily a social process. This talk is a call for more recognition of this reality in the modeling approaches we propose in the papers and books we publish. The mathematical models designed to inform planners and managers of water systems that we see in many of our journals often seem more complex than they need be. They also often seem not as connected to reality as they could be. While it may be easier to publish descriptions of complex models than simpler ones, and while adding complexity to models might make them better able to mimic or resemble the actual complexity of the real physical and/or social systems or processes being analyzed, the usefulness of such models often can be an illusion. Sometimes the important features of reality that are of concern or interest to those who make decisions can be adequately captured using relatively simple models. Finding the right balance for the particular issues being addressed or the particular decisions that need to be made is an art. When applied to real world problems or issues in specific basins or regions, systems modeling projects often involve more attention to the social aspects than the mathematical ones. Mathematical models addressing connected interacting interdependent components of complex water systems are in fact some of the most useful methods we have to study and better understand the systems we manage around us. They can help us identify and evaluate possible alternative solutions to problems facing humanity today. The study of real world systems of interacting components using mathematical models is commonly called applied systems analyses. Performing such analyses with decision makers rather than of decision makers is critical if the needed trust between project personnel and their clients is to be developed. Using examples from recent and ongoing modeling projects in different parts of the world, this talk will attempt to show the dependency on the degree of project success with the degree of attention given to the communication between project personnel, the stakeholders and decision making institutions. It will also highlight how initial project terms-of-reference and expected outcomes can change, sometimes in surprising ways, during the course of such projects. Changing project objectives often result from changing stakeholder values, emphasizing the need for analyses that can adapt to this uncertainty.

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.

2012-01-01

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Tachie-Obeng, E.

2009-01-01

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha−1 year−1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha−1 year−1. To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

2011-12-01

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

The NextData Project: a national Italian system for the retrieval, storage, access and diffusion of environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello

2013-04-01

Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental change and many marine regions provide information on past climate variations. The Project of Interest NextData will favour the implementation of measurement networks in remote mountain and marine areas and will develop efficient web portals to access meteoclimatic and atmospheric composition data, past climate information from ice and sediment cores, biodiversity and ecosystem data, measurements of the hydrological cycle, marine reanalyses and climate projections at global and regional scale. New data on the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections in the Alps, the Himalaya-Karakoram, the Mediterranean region and other areas of interest will be obtained and made available. The pilot studies conducted during the project will allow for obtaining new estimates on the availability of water resources and on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on high-altitude environments, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on ecosystems, health and societies in mountain regions. The system of archives and the scientific results produced by the NextData project will provide a unique data base for research, for environmental management and for the estimate of climate change impacts, allowing for the development of knowledge-based environmental and climate adaptation policies.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Changing Environment and Changing Institution: Indian Project of the Northeast Kansas Library System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, William D.

1971-01-01

The chief features of the program's first year were the establishment of a liason between the library and identifiable service needs within the community, the second year was for developing the communication center approach; and development of special services and a cultural awareness program were projected for the third and fourth years. (2…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospectivemore » for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.« less

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tam, A.; Jain, M.

2016-12-01

This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.

Theoretical analysis to interpret projected image data from in-situ 3-dimensional equiaxed nucleation and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, Robin P.; McFadden, Shaun

2017-12-01

In-situ observation of crystal growth in transparent media allows us to observe solidification phase change in real-time. These systems are analogous to opaque systems such as metals. The interpretation of transient 2-dimensional area projections from 3-dimensional phase change phenomena occurring in a bulky sample is problematic due to uncertainty of impingement and hidden nucleation events; in stereology this problem is known as over-projection. This manuscript describes and demonstrates a continuous model for nucleation and growth using the well-established Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov model, and provides a method to relate 3-dimensional volumetric data (nucleation events, volume fraction) to observed data in a 2-dimensional projection (nucleation count, area fraction). A parametric analysis is performed; the projection phenomenon is shown to be significant in cases where nucleation is occurring continuously with a relatively large variance. In general, area fraction on a projection plane will overestimate the volume fraction within the sample and the nuclei count recorded on the projection plane will underestimate the number of real nucleation events. The statistical framework given in this manuscript provides a methodology to deal with the differences between the observed (projected) data and the real (volumetric) measures.

A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, Alistair; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty projections of global carbon fluxes.

A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth System Models

DOE PAGES

Rogers, Alistair; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; ...

2016-11-28

Accurate representation of photosynthesis in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is essential for robust projections of global change. However, current representations vary markedly between TBMs, contributing uncertainty projections of global carbon fluxes.

Assessment of Alphamagnetic Spectrometer (AMS) Upper Experiment Structural Configuration Shielding Effectiveness Associated with Change from Cryo-Cooled Magnet to Permanent Magnet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scully, Robert

2012-01-01

In the spring of 2010, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer 2 (AMS-02) underwent a series of system level electromagnetic interference control measurements, followed by thermal vacuum testing. Shortly after completion of the thermal vacuum testing, the project decided to remove the cryogenically cooled superconducting magnet, and replace it with the original permanent magnet design employed in the earlier AMS- 01 assembly. Doing so necessitated several structural changes, as well as removal or modification of numerous electronic and thermal control devices and systems. At this stage, the project was rapidly approaching key milestone dates for hardware completion and delivery for launch, and had little time for additional testing or assessment of any impact to the electromagnetic signature of the AMS-02. Therefore, an analytical assessment of the radiated emissions behavioural changes associated with the system changes was requested.

The integrated project AquaTerra of the EU sixth framework lays foundations for better understanding of river-sediment-soil-groundwater systems.

PubMed

Gerzabek, M H; Barceló, D; Bellin, A; Rijnaarts, H H M; Slob, A; Darmendrail, D; Fowler, H J; Négrel, Ph; Frank, E; Grathwohl, P; Kuntz, D; Barth, J A C

2007-07-01

The integrated project "AquaTerra" with the full title "integrated modeling of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system; advanced tools for the management of catchment areas and river basins in the context of global change" is among the first environmental projects within the sixth Framework Program of the European Union. Commencing in June 2004, it brought together a multidisciplinary team of 45 partner organizations from 12 EU countries, Romania, Switzerland, Serbia and Montenegro. AquaTerra is an ambitious project with the primary objective of laying the foundations for a better understanding of the behavior of environmental pollutants and their fluxes in the soil-sediment-water system with respect to climate and land use changes. The project performs research as well as modeling on river-sediment-soil-groundwater systems through quantification of deposition, sorption and turnover rates and the development of numerical models to reveal fluxes and trends in soil and sediment functioning. Scales ranging from the laboratory to river basins are addressed with the potential to provide improved river basin management, enhanced soil and groundwater monitoring as well as the early identification and forecasting of impacts on water quantity and quality. Study areas are the catchments of the Ebro, Meuse, Elbe and Danube Rivers and the Brévilles Spring. Here we outline the general structure of the project and the activities conducted within eleven existing sub-projects of AquaTerra.

Sensitivity of Regional Hydropower Generation to the Projected Changes in Future Watershed Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Naz, B. S.; Gangrade, S.

2015-12-01

Hydropower is a key contributor to the renewable energy portfolio due to its established development history and the diverse benefits it provides to the electric power systems. With the projected change in the future watershed hydrology, including shift of snowmelt timing, increasing occurrence of extreme precipitation, and change in drought frequencies, there is a need to investigate how the regional hydropower generation may change correspondingly. To evaluate the sensitivity of watershed storage and hydropower generation to future climate change, a lumped Watershed Runoff-Energy Storage (WRES) model is developed to simulate the annual and seasonal hydropower generation at various hydropower areas in the United States. For each hydropower study area, the WRES model use the monthly precipitation and naturalized (unregulated) runoff as inputs to perform a runoff mass balance calculation for the total monthly runoff storage in all reservoirs and retention facilities in the watershed, and simulate the monthly regulated runoff release and hydropower generation through the system. The WRES model is developed and calibrated using the historic (1980-2009) monthly precipitation, runoff, and generation data, and then driven by a large set of dynamically- and statistically-downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections to simulate the change of watershed storage and hydropower generation under different future climate scenarios. The results among different hydropower regions, storage capacities, emission scenarios, and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

Planning for climate change on the National Wildlife Refuge System

Treesearch

B. Czech; S. Covington; T. M. Crimmins; J. A. Ericson; C. Flather; M. Gale; K. Gerst; M. Higgins; M. Kaib; E. Marino; T. Moran; J. Morton; N. Niemuth; H. Peckett; D. Savignano; L. Saperstein; S. Skorupa; E. Wagener; B. Wilen; B. Wolfe

2014-01-01

This document originated in 2008 as a collaborative project of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the University of Maryland's Graduate Program in Sustainable Development and Conservation Biology. The original title was A Primer on Climate Change for the National Wildlife Refuge System. The Primer has evolved into Planning for Climate Change on the...

Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

Treesearch

Gary P. Kofinas; F. Stuart Chapin; Shauna BurnSilver; Jennifer I. Schmidt; Nancy L. Fresco; Knut Kielland; Stephanie Martin; Anna Springsteen; T. Scott Rupp

2010-01-01

Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social-ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone...

Managing Automation: A Process, Not a Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffmann, Ellen

1988-01-01

Discussion of issues in management of library automation includes: (1) hardware, including systems growth and contracts; (2) software changes, vendor relations, local systems, and microcomputer software; (3) item and authority databases; (4) automation and library staff, organizational structure, and managing change; and (5) environmental issues,…

Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

2016-04-01

Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and using geographic information systems - (GIS). 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the DRC prototype, its validation, and testing the DRC feasibility for analyses of the recent regional environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and North America. Results of the first stage of the Project implementation are presented. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement № 14.613.21.0037.

NASA's Advanced Multimission Operations System: A Case Study in Formalizing Software Architecture Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Jeffrey M.

2011-01-01

All software systems of significant size and longevity eventually undergo changes to their basic architectural structure. Such changes may be prompted by evolving requirements, changing technology, or other reasons. Whatever the cause, software architecture evolution is commonplace in real world software projects. Recently, software architecture researchers have begun to study this phenomenon in depth. However, this work has suffered from problems of validation; research in this area has tended to make heavy use of toy examples and hypothetical scenarios and has not been well supported by real world examples. To help address this problem, I describe an ongoing effort at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to re-architect the Advanced Multimission Operations System (AMMOS), which is used to operate NASA's deep-space and astrophysics missions. Based on examination of project documents and interviews with project personnel, I describe the goals and approach of this evolution effort and then present models that capture some of the key architectural changes. Finally, I demonstrate how approaches and formal methods from my previous research in architecture evolution may be applied to this evolution, while using languages and tools already in place at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Advancing the application of systems thinking in health: sustainability evaluation as learning and sense-making in a complex urban health system in Northern Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric G; Kouletio, Michelle; Jahan, Dr Shamim; Rasul, Izaz; Musha, Akm

2014-08-26

Starting in 1999, Concern Worldwide Inc. (Concern) worked with two Bangladeshi municipal health departments to support delivery of maternal and child health preventive services. A mid-term evaluation identified sustainability challenges. Concern relied on systems thinking implicitly to re-prioritize sustainability, but stakeholders also required a method, an explicit set of processes, to guide their decisions and choices during and after the project. Concern chose the Sustainability Framework method to generate creative thinking from stakeholders, create a common vision, and monitor progress. The Framework is based on participatory and iterative steps: defining (mapping) the local system and articulating a long-term vision, describing scenarios for achieving the vision, defining the elements of the model, and selecting corresponding indicators, setting and executing an assessment plan,, and repeated stakeholder engagement in analysis and decisions . Formal assessments took place up to 5 years post-project (2009). Strategic choices for the project were guided by articulating a collective vision for sustainable health, mapping the system of actors required to effect and sustain change, and defining different components of analysis. Municipal authorities oriented health teams toward equity-oriented service delivery efforts, strengthening of the functionality of Ward Health Committees, resource leveraging between municipalities and the Ministry of Health, and mitigation of contextual risks. Regular reference to a vision (and set of metrics (population health, organizational and community capacity) mitigated political factors. Key structures and processes were maintained following elections and political changes. Post-project achievements included the maintenance or improvement 5 years post-project (2009) in 9 of the 11 health indicator gains realized during the project (1999-2004). Some elements of performance and capacity weakened, but reductions in the equity gap achieved during the project were largely maintained post-project. Sustainability is dynamic and results from local systems processes, which can be strengthened through both implicit and explicit systems thinking steps applied with constancy of purpose.

CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

A Systemic Approach to Implementing a Protective Factors Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parsons, Beverly; Jessup, Patricia; Moore, Marah

2014-01-01

The leadership team of the national Quality Improvement Center on early Childhood ventured into the frontiers of deep change in social systems by funding four research projects. The purpose of the research projects was to learn about implementing a protective factors approach with the goal of reducing the likelihood of child abuse and neglect. In…

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis.

PubMed

Glibert, Patricia M; Icarus Allen, J; Artioli, Yuri; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Holt, Jason

2014-12-01

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects on Urban Stormwater Infrastructure in City of Las Vegas, NV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakali, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2016-12-01

In the spring of 2016 the City of Las Vegas and the Southern Illinois University began collaborating on a project that seeks to assess the city's current vulnerability to drought, extreme heat, and extreme precipitation patterns, as well as the response mechanisms that are already in place within its jurisdiction. The document analyzes a series of scenarios to assess to what extent the vulnerability of four Key Planning Areas will change in the long term (30-50 years), what will be the most affected city operations, and what mechanisms the City will need to put into place to adapt to such changes. As part of the vulnerability report, this study assessed the impacts of climate change in the existing stormwater system of the Gowan watershed within City of Las Vegas, NV, by assessing projected design storms. The climate change projection for the region was evaluated using the high-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate model data. The design storms (6h 100y) were calculated using the best fitted probability distribution among twenty-seven distributions for the historic and future NARCCAP climate model projection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to assess the performance of NARCCAP data. The projected design storms were implemented in an existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model developed by Clark County Regional Flood Control District (CCRFCD), Las Vegas. The simulation results showed an increase in the design storms which exceeded the capacity of existing stormwater infrastructure.

Pan-Arctic observations in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project and its successor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanouchi, Takashi

2016-04-01

We started a Japanese initiative - "Arctic Climate Change Research Project" - within the framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT), in 2011. This Project targeted understanding and forecasting "Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences." Four strategic research targets are set by the Ministry: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic; 2. Understanding the Arctic climate system for global climate and future change; 3. Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on the weather and climate in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries; 4. Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Through a network of universities and institutions in Japan, this 5-year Project involves more than 300 scientists from 39 institutions and universities. The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) works as the core institute and The Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) joins as the supporting institute. There are 7 bottom up research themes approved: the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, cryosphere, greenhouse gases, marine ecology and fisheries, sea ice and Arctic sea routes and climate modeling, among 22 applications. The Project will realize multi-disciplinal study of the Arctic region and connect to the projection of future Arctic and global climatic change by modeling. The project has been running since the beginning of 2011 and in those 5 years pan-Arctic observations have been carried out in many locations, such as Svalbard, Russian Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and intensive atmospheric observations were carried out in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the Arctic Ocean cruises by R/V "Mirai" (belonging to JAMSTEC) and other icebreakers belonging to other countries were conducted and mooring buoy observations were also carried out. The data retrieved during these observations was accumulated in the "Arctic Data archive System (ADS)" (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/) and served with interfaces for analysis. In addition, modeling studies have been promoted from fundamental process model to general circulation model. The successor of the project, ArCS (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability), which lays delivering emphasis 
on robust scientific information to stakeholders for decision making and solving problems, was started in FY2015. Within this project, a cooperative observation of black carbon are planned to be started at Cape Baranova Station (AARI, Rusia), Severnaya Zemlya, and new activities including emphasizing aerological observations are also planned to be started for contributing to "Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)" of Polar Prediction Project (PPP/ WMO). It will be desirable to have a future collaboration with IASOA.

Support of an Active Science Project by a Large Information System: Lessons for the EOS Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Angelici, Gary L.; Skiles, J. W.; Popovici, Lidia Z.

1993-01-01

The ability of large information systems to support the changing data requirements of active science projects is being tested in a NASA collaborative study. This paper briefly profiles both the active science project and the large information system involved in this effort and offers some observations about the effectiveness of the project support. This is followed by lessons that are important for those participating in large information systems that need to support active science projects or that make available the valuable data produced by these projects. We learned in this work that it is difficult for a large information system focused on long term data management to satisfy the requirements of an on-going science project. For example, in order to provide the best service, it is important for all information system staff to keep focused on the needs and constraints of the scientists in the development of appropriate services. If the lessons learned in this and other science support experiences are not applied by those involved with large information systems of the EOS (Earth Observing System) era, then the final data products produced by future science projects may not be robust or of high quality, thereby making the conduct of the project science less efficacious and reducing the value of these unique suites of data for future research.

A Projection of Changes in Landfilling Atmospheric River Frequency and Extreme Precipitation over Western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases withmore » warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.« less

41. View of electro/mechanical fiber optic system panel in transmitter ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

41. View of electro/mechanical fiber optic system panel in transmitter building no. 102. Images projected to screen (panel at upper left) are projected to back side of screen located in MWOC to display changing information. - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

2010-12-01

The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

Developing Support Systems within Schools: Creating a Foundation for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steele, Toren Anderson

This paper describes and evaluates the Blalock FIRST (Fund for the Improvement and Reform of Schools and Teaching) project, a 3-year, federally funded project based in an elementary school that serves mainly female-headed, African-American families who receive government assistance and live in public housing. The Blalock FIRST project seeks to…

Reengineering the project design process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane Casani, E.; Metzger, Robert M.

1995-01-01

In response to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's goal of working faster, better, and cheaper, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has developed extensive plans to minimize cost, maximize customer and employee satisfaction, and implement small- and moderate-size missions. These plans include improved management structures and processes, enhanced technical design processes, the incorporation of new technology, and the development of more economical space- and ground-system designs. The Laboratory's new Flight Projects Implementation Development Office has been chartered to oversee these innovations and the reengineering of JPL's project design process, including establishment of the Project Design Center (PDC) and the Flight System Testbed (FST). Reengineering at JPL implies a cultural change whereby the character of the Laboratory's design process will change from sequential to concurrent and from hierarchical to parallel. The Project Design Center will support missions offering high science return, design to cost, demonstrations of new technology, and rapid development. Its computer-supported environment will foster high-fidelity project life-cycle development and more accurate cost estimating. These improvements signal JPL's commitment to meeting the challenges of space exploration in the next century.

Biogeochemical Responses and Feedbacks to Climate Change: Synthetic Meta-Analyses Relevant to Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van Gestel, Natasja; Jan van Groenigen, Kees; Osenberg, Craig

This project examined the sensitivity of carbon in land ecosystems to environmental change, focusing on carbon contained in soil, and the role of carbon-nitrogen interactions in regulating ecosystem carbon storage. The project used a combination of empirical measurements, mathematical models, and statistics to partition effects of climate change on soil into processes enhancing soil carbon and processes through which it decomposes. By synthesizing results from experiments around the world, the work provided novel insight on ecological controls and responses across broad spatial and temporal scales. The project developed new approaches in meta-analysis using principles of element mass balance and largemore » datasets to derive metrics of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The project used meta-analysis to test how nutrients regulate responses of ecosystems to elevated CO2 and warming, in particular responses of nitrogen fixation, critical for regulating long-term C balance.« less

Uncoupling File System Components for Bridging Legacy and Modern Storage Architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golpayegani, N.; Halem, M.; Tilmes, C.; Prathapan, S.; Earp, D. N.; Ashkar, J. S.

2016-12-01

Long running Earth Science projects can span decades of architectural changes in both processing and storage environments. As storage architecture designs change over decades such projects need to adjust their tools, systems, and expertise to properly integrate such new technologies with their legacy systems. Traditional file systems lack the necessary support to accommodate such hybrid storage infrastructure resulting in more complex tool development to encompass all possible storage architectures used for the project. The MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) and the Level 1 and Atmospheres Archive and Distribution System (LAADS) is an example of a project spanning several decades which has evolved into a hybrid storage architecture. MODAPS/LAADS has developed the Lightweight Virtual File System (LVFS) which ensures a seamless integration of all the different storage architectures, including standard block based POSIX compliant storage disks, to object based architectures such as the S3 compliant HGST Active Archive System, and the Seagate Kinetic disks utilizing the Kinetic Protocol. With LVFS, all analysis and processing tools used for the project continue to function unmodified regardless of the underlying storage architecture enabling MODAPS/LAADS to easily integrate any new storage architecture without the costly need to modify existing tools to utilize such new systems. Most file systems are designed as a single application responsible for using metadata to organizing the data into a tree, determine the location for data storage, and a method of data retrieval. We will show how LVFS' unique approach of treating these components in a loosely coupled fashion enables it to merge different storage architectures into a single uniform storage system which bridges the underlying hybrid architecture.

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCown, F.E.

UCC Research Corporation, along with most of the companies involved in coal development, initially was thinking in terms of high pressure systems, flash pyrolysis, and hydrogenation. Most goverment funding has also been provided for projects using these techniques. However, information from several sources, only recently available to UCC Research Corporation, has effected a change in our recommended direction on the subject project. First, information being obtained in-house at UCC Research on another project using low temperature/pressure pyrolysis looked very favorable. Secondly, the initial review of the design, cost and capabilities of the pyrolysis equipment originally proposed indicated that substantial advantagesmore » could be gained at only a modest increase in cost, by changing to a low pressure unit. Finally, it was discovered that a company in England, using almost identical pyrolysis conditions as those being used at UCC Research, was producing coal liquids commercially, and had been in business many years. In consideration of the above information, UCC Research is recommending that the pyrolysis system for the subject project be changed to a low pressure/temperature design, utilizing the information obtained via our in-house research and from the company in England.« less

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Project W-211 initial tank retrieval systems year 2000 compliance assessment project plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BUSSELL, J.H.

1999-08-24

This assessment describes the potential Year 2000 (Y2K) problems and describes the methods for achieving Y2K Compliance for Project W-211, Initial Tank Retrieval Systems (ITRS). The purpose of this assessment is to give an overview of the project. This document will not be updated and any dates contained in this document are estimates and may change. The scope of project W-211 is to provide systems for retrieval of radioactive wastes from ten double-shell tanks (DST). systems will be installed in tanks 102-AP, 104-AP, 105-AN, 104-AN, 102-AZ, 101-AW, 103-AN, 107-AN, 102-AY, and 102-SY. The current tank selection and sequence supports phasemore » I feed delivery to privatized processing plants. A detailed description of system dates, functions, interfaces, potential Y2K problems, and date resolutions can not be described since the project is in the definitive design phase. This assessment will describe the methods, protocols, and practices to assure that equipment and systems do not have Y2K problems.« less

Predicting response of fuel load to future changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

Chi Zhang; Hanqin Tian; Yuhang Wang; Tao Zeng; Yongqiang Liu

2010-01-01

The model projected ecosystem carbon dynamics were incorporated into the default (contemporary) fuel load map developed by FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) to estimate the dynamics of fuel load in the Southern United States in response to projected changes in climate and atmosphere (CO2 and nitrogen deposition) from 2002 to 2050. The study results...

Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

Treesearch

Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

2018-01-01

Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

The Contribution of Project Environmental Assessment to Assessing and Managing Cumulative Effects: Individually and Collectively Insignificant?

PubMed

Noble, Bram; Liu, Jialang; Hackett, Paul

2017-04-01

This paper explores the opportunities and constraints to project-based environmental assessment as a means to support the assessment and management of cumulative environmental effects. A case study of the hydroelectric sector is used to determine whether sufficient information is available over time through project-by-project assessments to support an adequate understanding of cumulative change. Results show inconsistency from one project to the next in terms of the components and indicators assessed, limited transfer of baseline information between project assessments over time, and the same issues and concerns being raised by review panels-even though the projects reviewed are operating in the same watershed and operated by the same proponent. Project environmental assessments must be managed, and coordinated, as part of a larger system of impact assessment, if project-by-project assessments are to provide a meaningful forum for learning and understanding cumulative change. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved project-based assessment practice in support of cumulative effects assessment and management.

Changes in projected spatial and seasonal groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

The Colorado River is an important source of water in the western United States, supplying the needs of more than 38 million people in the United States and Mexico. Groundwater discharge to streams has been shown to be a critical component of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), particularly during low-flow periods. Understanding impacts on groundwater in the basin from projected climate change will assist water managers in the region in planning for potential changes in the river and groundwater system. A previous study on changes in basin-wide groundwater recharge in the UCRB under projected climate change found substantial increases in temperature, moderate increases in precipitation, and mostly periods of stable or slight increases in simulated groundwater recharge through 2099. This study quantifies projected spatial and seasonal changes in groundwater recharge within the UCRB from recent historical (1950 to 2015) through future (2016 to 2099) time periods, using a distributed-parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Simulation results indicate that projected increases in basin-wide recharge of up to 15% are not distributed uniformly within the basin or throughout the year. Northernmost subregions within the UCRB are projected an increase in groundwater recharge, while recharge in other mainly southern subregions will decline. Seasonal changes in recharge also are projected within the UCRB, with decreases of 50% or more in summer months and increases of 50% or more in winter months for all subregions, and increases of 10% or more in spring months for many subregions.

Changes in Projected Spatial and Seasonal Groundwater Recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

PubMed

Tillman, Fred D; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-07-01

The Colorado River is an important source of water in the western United States, supplying the needs of more than 38 million people in the United States and Mexico. Groundwater discharge to streams has been shown to be a critical component of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), particularly during low-flow periods. Understanding impacts on groundwater in the basin from projected climate change will assist water managers in the region in planning for potential changes in the river and groundwater system. A previous study on changes in basin-wide groundwater recharge in the UCRB under projected climate change found substantial increases in temperature, moderate increases in precipitation, and mostly periods of stable or slight increases in simulated groundwater recharge through 2099. This study quantifies projected spatial and seasonal changes in groundwater recharge within the UCRB from recent historical (1950 to 2015) through future (2016 to 2099) time periods, using a distributed-parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Simulation results indicate that projected increases in basin-wide recharge of up to 15% are not distributed uniformly within the basin or throughout the year. Northernmost subregions within the UCRB are projected an increase in groundwater recharge, while recharge in other mainly southern subregions will decline. Seasonal changes in recharge also are projected within the UCRB, with decreases of 50% or more in summer months and increases of 50% or more in winter months for all subregions, and increases of 10% or more in spring months for many subregions. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Design and Implementation of Geothermal Energy Systems at West Chester University

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuprak, Greg

West Chester University has launched a comprehensive transformation of its campus heating and cooling systems from traditional fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) to geothermal. This change will significantly decrease the institution’s carbon footprint and serve as a national model for green campus efforts. The institution has designed a phased series of projects to build a district geo-exchange system with shared well fields, central pumping station and distribution piping to provide the geo-exchange water to campus buildings as their internal building HVAC systems is changed to be able to use the geo-exchange water. This project addresses the US Departmentmore » of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) goal to invest in clean energy technologies that strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. In addition, this project advances EERE’s efforts to establish geothermal energy as an economically competitive contributor to the US energy supply.« less

Effects of an incinerator project on a healthcare-waste management system.

PubMed

Khammaneechan, Patthanasak; Okanurak, Kamolnetr; Sithisarankul, Pornchai; Tantrakarnapa, Kraichat; Norramit, Poonsup

2011-10-01

This evaluative research study aimed to assess the effects of the central healthcare incinerator project on waste management in Yala Province. The study data were collected twice: at baseline and during the operational phase. A combination of structured interview and observation were used during data collection. The study covered 127 healthcare facilities: government hospitals, healthcare centres, and private clinics. The results showed 63% of healthcare risk waste (HCRW) handlers attended the HCRW management training. Improvements in each stage of the HCRW management system were observed in all groups of facilities. The total cost of the HCRW management system did not change, however; the costs for hospitals decreased, whereas those for clinics increased significantly. It was concluded that the central healthcare waste incinerator project positively affected HCRW management in the area, although the costs of management might increase for a particular group. However, the benefits of changing to a more appropriately managed HCRW system will outweigh the increased costs.

Participation in a national nursing outcomes database: monitoring outcomes over time.

PubMed

Loan, Lori A; Patrician, Patricia A; McCarthy, Mary

2011-01-01

The current and future climates in health care require increased accountability of health care organizations for the quality of the care they provide. Never before in the history of health care in America has this focus on quality been so critical. The imperative to measure nursing's impact without fully developed and tested monitoring systems is a critical issue for nurse executives and managers alike. This article describes a project to measure nursing structure, process, and outcomes in the military health system, the Military Nursing Outcomes Database project. Here we review the effectiveness of this project in monitoring changes over time, in satisfying expectations of nurse leaders in participating hospitals, and evaluate the potential budgetary impacts of such a system. We conclude that the Military Nursing Outcomes Database did meet the needs of a monitoring system that is sensitive to changes over time in outcomes, provides interpretable data for nurse leaders, and could result in cost benefits and patient care improvements in organizations.

Advocating mindset for cooperative partnership for better future of construction industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, Datuk Wahid

2017-11-01

Construction industry players are known for their low acceptance on the changes. Hence, it is identified that the biggest challenge in the industry is changing the mindset. This paper highlights the importance of transformation in shaping for better future of the industry. Transformation favors innovation and progressive development in the industry and specifically in managing a project. Thus changes in mindset of players with an eye to the future and focus on what is coming are paramount in inculcating the transformation culture in construction eco-system. The key to the success of transformation is the collaborative and cooperative partnering which ensuring the performance of every stage of project delivery. The collaborative, cooperative and concerted effort of all parties involved in the project creates mutual understanding on mission and vision of project. Adopting healthy and harmonious project culture, implementing innovative procurement that emphasis on fair risk sharing should be a working culture. This cooperative partnership should be the future of the project undertaking in the construction industry.

Integrating Native knowledge and community perspectives in geoscience research and education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Stephens, S.; Schneider, W.

2010-12-01

Multiple perspectives are being incorporated in geoscience research and education exemplified by ongoing projects at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. This presentation will highlight two such projects. In the Seasons and Biomes project, that monitors seasons through global learning communities, in an effort to increase K-12 student understanding of Earth as a system and the environmental changes occurring in their local environment, students are accessing different knowledge systems in their studies. During professional development workshops for K-12 teachers, Alaska Native elders and community experts have been invited to be part of the scientist-educator team to help teachers engage their students in geoscience studies. Teachers learn and practice scientific measurement protocols in investigations such as atmosphere/weather, phenology and hydrology, learn about increasing their observation skills and systems thinking and how to engage and guide their students in environmental investigations. Native elders have been involved in classroom projects to help students understand what changes have occurred and currently occurring in their villages. They have also been involved in projects where small groups of students have conducted investigations under their guidance and the teachers’/scientists’ guidance. A student group from Shageluk, Alaska, successfully completed their study on effects of environmental changes and fire, and was invited and funded along with their Native mentor, to present their findings at an international student conference. In the Stakeholders and Climate Change project, fieldwork, meetings and numerous interviews have been conducted with Tanana, Ft. Yukon, and Chalkyitsik elders and middle-aged travelers and subsistence users. These video-taped interviews have been transcribed, digitized and processed into a draft Alaska Stakeholders and Climate Change/Project Jukebox website using Drupal CMA to create and maintain dynamic content and XSLT to create synchronized transcription. Interviews also have been analyzed and sorted according to 6 emerging themes: weather, rivers and lakes, fire, permafrost, plants and animals, and seasonality. Additionally, an interview “sampler” has been produced in DVD format for sharing with communities. This past February, we conducted a Stakeholders and Climate Change Workshop that melded local and indigenous observations and scientific research. Residents of Fort Yukon, Chalkyitsik and Tanana, Alaska and IARC and other UAF scientists met for two days to discuss changes in weather, climate, seasonality and the effects on landscape, subsistence resources and activities. Participating scientists were stimulated by the questions and observations of local residents and are interested in how their knowledge and future investigations might align more directly with local concerns. Local residents were appreciative of attention to their climate change concerns and are particularly interested in how their observations link to scientific explanations and to climate change forecasts for their specific location and getting climate change information out to communities and schools.

Water governance within Kenya's Upper Ewaso Ng'iro Basin: Assessing the performance of water projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, P. F.; Evans, T. P.; Dell'Angelo, J.; Gower, D.; McBride, L.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

Climate change processes are projected to change the availability and seasonality of streamflow with dramatic implications for irrigated agricultural systems. Within mountain environments, this alteration in water availability may be quite pronounced over a relatively short distance as upstream users with first access to river water directly impact the availability of water to downstream users. Livelihood systems that directly depend on river water for both domestic consumption and practices such as irrigated agriculture are particularly vulnerable. The Mount Kenya region is an exemplary case of a semi-arid upstream-downstream system in which water availability rapidly decreases and directly impacts the livelihoods of river water users existing across this steep environmental gradient. To effectively manage river water within these water-scarce environs, water projects have been established along the major rivers of the Mount Kenya region. These water projects are responsible for managing water within discrete sub-catchments of the region. While water projects develop rules that encourage the responsible use of water and maintenance of the project itself, the efficiency of water allocation to the projects' members remains unclear. This research analyzes water projects from five sub-catchments on the northwest slopes of Mount Kenya. It utilizes data from household surveys and water project management surveys as well as stream gauge data and flow measurements within individual water projects to assess the governance structure and performance of water projects. The performance of water projects is measured through a variety of household level metrics including: farm-level water flow and volume over time, mean and variability in maize yield, per capita crop productivity, household-level satisfaction with water availability, number of days where water volume was insufficient for irrigation, and quantity harvested compared with expected quantity harvested. We present results demonstrating the heterogeneity of these individual measures and discuss the influence of topography, network design, household behaviors and water governance on the overall performance of these water projects. This work is the foundation for an agent-based model of these water projects that investigates the impact of climate change and population pressure on sustained agricultural production in the region. Additionally, the study highlights the utility of pairing distinct fields of scholarship by utilizing both survey responses and hydrological data to study complex social-ecological systems. This pairing allows for insights regarding governance structures that are effectively managing river water in the present and helps to understand the structures that may be suitable for future water management.

Great Lakes O shore Wind Project: Utility and Regional Integration Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sajadi, Amirhossein; Loparo, Kenneth A.; D'Aquila, Robert

This project aims to identify transmission system upgrades needed to facilitate offshore wind projects as well as operational impacts of offshore generation on operation of the regional transmission system in the Great Lakes region. A simulation model of the US Eastern Interconnection was used as the test system as a case study for investigating the impact of the integration of a 1000MW offshore wind farm operating in Lake Erie into FirstEnergy/PJM service territory. The findings of this research provide recommendations on offshore wind integration scenarios, the locations of points of interconnection, wind profile modeling and simulation, and computational methods tomore » quantify performance, along with operating changes and equipment upgrades needed to mitigate system performance issues introduced by an offshore wind project.« less

Australian Higher Education: Regional Universities under a Coalition Government

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Sullivan, Dominic

2013-01-01

Projected student enrolment growth places the Australian higher education system on the precipice of significant change, leading to philosophical debates about how the system should respond. One suggested policy change is that resources be redirected from non-research intensive regional universities to other providers. The Liberal Party is the…

Factors Shaping the Evolution of Electronic Documentation Systems. Research Activity No. IM.4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dede, C. J.; And Others

The first of 10 sections in this report focuses on factors that will affect the evolution of Space Station Project (SSP) documentation systems. The goal of this project is to prepare the space station technical and managerial structure for likely changes in the creation, capture, transfer, and utilization of knowledge about the space station which…

Implementing a regional oncology information system: approach and lessons learned.

PubMed

Evans, W K; Ashbury, F D; Hogue, G L; Smith, A; Pun, J

2014-10-01

Paper-based medical record systems are known to have major problems of inaccuracy, incomplete data, poor accessibility, and challenges to patient confidentiality. They are also an inefficient mechanism of record-sharing for interdisciplinary patient assessment and management, and represent a major problem for keeping current and monitoring quality control to facilitate improvement. To address those concerns, national, regional, and local health care authorities have increased the pressure on oncology practices to upgrade from paper-based systems to electronic health records. Here, we describe and discuss the challenges to implementing a region-wide oncology information system across four independent health care organizations, and we describe the lessons learned from the initial phases that are now being applied in subsequent activities of this complex project. The need for change must be shared across centres to increase buy-in, adoption, and implementation. It is essential to establish physician leadership, commitment, and engagement in the process. Work processes had to be revised to optimize use of the new system. Culture change must be included in the change management strategy. Furthermore, training and resource requirements must be thoroughly planned, implemented, monitored, and modified as required for effective adoption of new work processes and technology. Interfaces must be established with multiple existing electronic systems across the region to ensure appropriate patient flow. Periodic assessment of the existing project structure is necessary, and adjustments are often required to ensure that the project meets its objectives. The implementation of region-wide oncology information systems across different health practice locations has many challenges. Leadership is essential. A strong, collaborative information-sharing strategy across the region and with the supplier is essential to identify, discuss, and resolve implementation problems. A structure that supports project management and accountability contributes to success.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

2015-04-01

The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially when inter-annual inflow variability is high. Key words: Climate change, water resource, impact, management strategy modelling

Changes in the Legal System of the People’s Republic of China and the Projected Impact on National Security of the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-01

unloaded furs, wool and ginseng in exchange for Chinese teas, silk and porcelain. 22 These trades were generally one- sided and not highly desired by the...so as to develop an effective United States policy. 1992 Executive Research Project S52 Changes in the Legal System of the People’s Republic of China...national strategy options may be pursued relating to the People’s Republic of China so as to develop an effective United States policy. In the National

Mobile-Based Nutrition and Child Health Monitoring to Inform Program Development: An Experience From Liberia.

PubMed

Guyon, Agnes; Bock, Ariella; Buback, Laura; Knittel, Barbara

2016-12-23

Implementing complex nutrition and other public health projects and tracking nutrition interventions, such as women's diet and supplementation and infant and young child feeding practices, requires reliable routine data to identify potential program gaps and to monitor trends in behaviors in real time. However, current monitoring and evaluation practices generally do not create an environment for this real-time tracking. This article describes the development and application of a mobile-based nutrition and health monitoring system, which collected monitoring data on project activities, women's nutrition, and infant and young child feeding practices in real time. The Liberia Agricultural Upgrading Nutrition and Child Health (LAUNCH) project implemented a nutrition and health monitoring system between April 2012 and June 2014. The LAUNCH project analyzed project monitoring and outcome data from the system and shared selected behavioral and programmatic indicators with program managers through a short report, which later evolved into a visual data dashboard, during program-update meetings. The project designed protocols to ensure representativeness of program participants. LAUNCH made programmatic adjustments in response to findings from the monitoring system; these changes were then reflected in subsequent quarterly trends, indicating that the availability of timely data allowed for the project to react quickly to issues and adapt the program appropriately. Such issues included lack of participation in community groups and insufficient numbers of food distribution points. Likewise, the system captured trends in key outcome indicators such as breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices, linking them to project activities and external factors including seasonal changes and national health campaigns. Digital data collection platforms can play a vital role in improving routine programmatic functions. Fixed gathering locations such as food distribution points represent an opportunity to easily access program participants and enable managers to identify strengths and weaknesses in project implementation. For programs that track individuals over time, a mobile tool combined with a strong database can greatly improve efficiency and data visibility and reduce resource leakages. © Guyon et al.

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

PubMed

Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

2012-03-01

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

Linking Project Evaluation and Goals-Based Teacher Evaluation: Evaluating the Accelerated Schools Project in South Carolina.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finnan, Christine; Davis, Sara Calhoun

This paper describes efforts to design an evaluation system that has as its primary objective helping schools effect positive change through the Accelerated Schools Project. Three characteristics were deemed essential: (1) that the evaluation be useful and meaningful; (2) that it be sensitive to local conditions; and (3) that evaluations of…

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Software Architecture Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnes, Jeffrey M.

2013-01-01

Many software systems eventually undergo changes to their basic architectural structure. Such changes may be prompted by new feature requests, new quality attribute requirements, changing technology, or other reasons. Whatever the causes, architecture evolution is commonplace in real-world software projects. Today's software architects, however,…

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

Incorporating a Systems Approach into Civil and Environmental Engineering Curricula: Effect on Course Redesign, and Student and Faculty Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayden, Nancy J.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.; Neumann, Maureen D.; Lathem, Sandra; Sadek, Adel

2011-01-01

This paper presents a brief overview of the changes made during our department level reform (DLR) process (Grant Title: "A Systems Approach for Civil and Environmental Engineering Education: Integrating Systems Thinking, Inquiry-Based Learning and Catamount Community Service-Learning Projects") and some of the effects of these changes on…

Projected changes to precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies using multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

Information on projected changes to precipitation extremes is needed for future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and storm water management systems and to sustain socio-economic activities and ecosystems at local, regional and other scales of interest. This study explores the projected changes to seasonal (April-October) precipitation extremes at daily, hourly and sub-hourly scales over the Canadian Prairie Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble and regional frequency analysis. The performance of each RCM is evaluated regarding boundary and performance errors to study various sources of uncertainties and the impact of large-scale driving fields. In the absence of RCM-simulated short-duration extremes, a framework is developed to derive changes to extremes of these durations. Results from this research reveal that the relative changes in sub-hourly extremes are higher than those in the hourly and daily extremes. Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes are larger for southeastern parts of this region than southern and northern areas, and smaller for southwestern and western parts of the study area. Keywords: climate change, precipitation extremes, regional frequency analysis, NARCCAP, Canadian Prairie provinces

Evolution of Ada technology in the flight dynamics area: Implementation/testing phase analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quimby, Kelvin L.; Esker, Linda; Miller, John; Smith, Laurie; Stark, Mike; Mcgarry, Frank

1989-01-01

An analysis is presented of the software engineering issues related to the use of Ada for the implementation and system testing phases of four Ada projects developed in the flight dynamics area. These projects reflect an evolving understanding of more effective use of Ada features. In addition, the testing methodology used on these projects has changed substantially from that used on previous FORTRAN projects.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

Telescience Resource Kit Software Lifecycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griner, Carolyn S.; Schneider, Michelle

1998-01-01

The challenge of a global operations capability led to the Telescience Resource Kit (TReK) project, an in-house software development project of the Mission Operations Laboratory (MOL) at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The TReK system is being developed as an inexpensive comprehensive personal computer- (PC-) based ground support system that can be used by payload users from their home sites to interact with their payloads on board the International Space Station (ISS). The TReK project is currently using a combination of the spiral lifecycle model and the incremental lifecycle model. As with any software development project, there are four activities that can be very time consuming: Software design and development, project documentation, testing, and umbrella activities, such as quality assurance and configuration management. In order to produce a quality product, it is critical that each of these activities receive the appropriate amount of attention. For TReK, the challenge was to lay out a lifecycle and project plan that provides full support for these activities, is flexible, provides a way to deal with changing risks, can accommodate unknowns, and can respond to changes in the environment quickly. This paper will provide an overview of the TReK lifecycle, a description of the project's environment, and a general overview of project activities.

Clinicians' perceptions of organizational readiness for change in the context of clinical information system projects: insights from two cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Paré, Guy; Sicotte, Claude; Poba-Nzaou, Placide; Balouzakis, George

2011-02-28

The adoption and diffusion of clinical information systems has become one of the critical benchmarks for achieving several healthcare organizational reform priorities, including home care, primary care, and integrated care networks. However, these systems are often strongly resisted by the same community that is expected to benefit from their use. Prior research has found that early perceptions and beliefs play a central role in shaping future attitudes and behaviors such as negative rumors, lack of involvement, and resistance to change. In this line of research, this paper builds on the change management and information systems literature and identifies variables associated with clinicians' early perceptions of organizational readiness for change in the specific context of clinical information system projects. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted to test our research model. First, a questionnaire was pretested and then distributed to the future users of a mobile computing technology in 11 home care organizations. The second study took place in a large teaching hospital that had approved a budget for the acquisition of an electronic medical records system. Data analysis was performed using partial least squares. Scale items used in this study showed adequate psychometric properties. In Study 1, four of the hypothesized links in the research model were supported, with change appropriateness, organizational flexibility, vision clarity, and change efficacy explaining 75% of the variance in organizational readiness. In Study 2, four hypotheses were also supported, two of which differed from those supported in Study 1: the presence of an effective project champion and collective self-efficacy. In addition to these variables, vision clarity and change appropriateness also helped explain 75% of the variance in the dependent variable. Explanations for the similarities and differences observed in the two surveys are provided. Organizational readiness is arguably a key factor involved in clinicians' initial support for clinical information system initiatives. As healthcare organizations continue to invest in information technologies to improve quality and continuity of care and reduce costs, understanding the factors that influence organizational readiness for change represents an important avenue for future research.

Clinicians' perceptions of organizational readiness for change in the context of clinical information system projects: insights from two cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The adoption and diffusion of clinical information systems has become one of the critical benchmarks for achieving several healthcare organizational reform priorities, including home care, primary care, and integrated care networks. However, these systems are often strongly resisted by the same community that is expected to benefit from their use. Prior research has found that early perceptions and beliefs play a central role in shaping future attitudes and behaviors such as negative rumors, lack of involvement, and resistance to change. In this line of research, this paper builds on the change management and information systems literature and identifies variables associated with clinicians' early perceptions of organizational readiness for change in the specific context of clinical information system projects. Methods Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted to test our research model. First, a questionnaire was pretested and then distributed to the future users of a mobile computing technology in 11 home care organizations. The second study took place in a large teaching hospital that had approved a budget for the acquisition of an electronic medical records system. Data analysis was performed using partial least squares. Results Scale items used in this study showed adequate psychometric properties. In Study 1, four of the hypothesized links in the research model were supported, with change appropriateness, organizational flexibility, vision clarity, and change efficacy explaining 75% of the variance in organizational readiness. In Study 2, four hypotheses were also supported, two of which differed from those supported in Study 1: the presence of an effective project champion and collective self-efficacy. In addition to these variables, vision clarity and change appropriateness also helped explain 75% of the variance in the dependent variable. Explanations for the similarities and differences observed in the two surveys are provided. Conclusions Organizational readiness is arguably a key factor involved in clinicians' initial support for clinical information system initiatives. As healthcare organizations continue to invest in information technologies to improve quality and continuity of care and reduce costs, understanding the factors that influence organizational readiness for change represents an important avenue for future research. PMID:21356080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfiffner, Susan M.; Brandt, Craig C.; Kostka, Joel E.

Our current research represents a joint effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Florida State University (FSU), and the University of Tennessee. ORNL will serve as the lead institution with Dr. A.V. Palumbo responsible for project coordination, integration, and deliverables. This project was initiated in November, 2004, in the Integrative Studies Element of the NABIR program. The overall goal of our project is to provide an improved understanding of the relationships between microbial community structure, geochemistry, and metal reduction rates. The research seeks to address the following questions: Is the metabolic diversity of the in situ microbial community sufficiently largemore » and redundant that bioimmobilization of uranium will occur regardless of the type of electron donor added to the system? Are their donor specific effects that lead to enrichment of specific community members that then impose limits on the functional capabilities of the system? Will addition of humics change rates of uranium reduction without changing community structure? Can resource-ratio theory be used to understand changes in uranium reduction rates and community structure with respect to changing C:P ratios?« less

A Case Review: Integrating Lewin’s Theory with Lean’s System Approach for Change

PubMed

Wojciechowski, Elizabeth; Pearsall, Tabitha; Murphy, Patricia; French, Eileen

2016-05-31

The complexity of healthcare calls for interprofessional collaboration to improve and sustain the best outcomes for safe and high quality patient care. Historically, rehabilitation nursing has been an area that relies heavily on interprofessional relationships. Professionals from various disciplines often subscribe to different change management theories for continuous quality improvement. Through a case review, authors describe how a large, Midwestern, rehabilitation hospital used the crosswalk methodology to facilitate interprofessional collaboration and develop an intervention model for implementing and sustaining bedside shift reporting. The authors provide project background and offer a brief overview of the two common frameworks used in this project, Lewin’s Three-Step Model for Change and the Lean Systems Approach. The description of the bedside shift report project methods demonstrates that multiple disciplines are able to utilize a common framework for leading and sustaining change to support outcomes of high quality and safe care, and capitalize on the opportunities of multiple views and discipline-specific approaches. The conclusion discusses outcomes, future initiatives, and implications for nursing practice.

GCD TechPort Data Sheets Thermal Protection System Materials (TPSM) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chinnapongse, Ronald L.

2014-01-01

The Thermal Protection System Materials (TPSM) Project consists of three distinct project elements: the 3-Dimensional Multifunctional Ablative Thermal Protection System (3D MAT) project element; the Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System (CA-TPS) project element; and the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project element. 3D MAT seeks to design, develop and deliver a game changing material solution based on 3-dimensional weaving and resin infusion approach for manufacturing a material that can function as a robust structure as well as a thermal protection system. CA-TPS seeks to develop and deliver a conformal ablative material designed to be efficient and capable of withstanding peak heat flux up to 500 W/ sq cm, peak pressure up to 0.4 atm, and shear up to 500 Pa. HEEET is developing a new ablative TPS that takes advantage of state-of-the-art 3D weaving technologies and traditional manufacturing processes to infuse woven preforms with a resin, machine them to shape, and assemble them as a tiled solution on the entry vehicle substructure or heatshield.

An integrated approach to stakeholder engagement.

PubMed

Carr, Dafna; Howells, Arlene; Chang, Melissa; Hirji, Nadir; English, Ann

2009-01-01

The Wait Time Information System (WTIS) project was a complex change-management initiative. For the first time in Ontario, wait time data would be captured directly from clinician offices and publicly reported in an effort to improve access to care. The change meant using new technology, new business processes and, most importantly, a new dimension of accountability for making improvements within the health system. Success required engaging thousands of individuals at all levels of healthcare, many of whom were skeptical and resistant to the upcoming change, and subsequently gaining their support and motivating them to use the WTIS and its data. To achieve the level of stakeholder engagement that would be required to deploy and sustain the WTIS, the project team needed to address both the business reasons for change, and the emotional reactions to it. The team applied a three-pronged approach encompassing strong communications, compelling adoption efforts and hands-on training. Communication focused on awareness and education, ensuring that information was coordinated, consistent and transparent. Adoption efforts involved helping hospitals and users understand and prepare for the impact of change. Training provided hands-on practice to get people comfortable with using the system. This article explores how information management/information technology (IM/IT) projects can integrate communications, adoption and training to drive stakeholder engagement. It also provides insight around how, when used effectively, these functions can maximize limited resources and provide valuable benefits.

Exploring Land Use and Land Cover Change and Feedbacks in the Global Change Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a major driver of global and regional environmental change. Projections of land use change are thus an essential component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to study feedbacks between transformation of energy systems and land productivity under the context of climate change. However, the spatial scale of IAMs, e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), is typically larger than the scale of terrestrial processes in the human-Earth system, LULCC downscaling therefore becomes a critical linkage among these multi-scale and multi-sector processes. Parametric uncertainties in LULCC downscaling algorithms, however, have been under explored, especially in the context of how such uncertainties could propagate to affect energy systems in a changing climate. In this study, we use a LULCC downscaling model, Demeter, to downscale GCAM-based future land use scenarios into fine spatial scales, and explore the sensitivity of downscaled land allocations to key parameters. Land productivity estimates (e.g., biomass production and crop yield) based on the downscaled LULCC scenarios are then fed to GCAM to evaluate how energy systems might change due to altered water and carbon cycle dynamics and their interactions with the human system, , which would in turn affect future land use projections. We demonstrate that uncertainties in LULCC downscaling can result in significant differences in simulated scenarios, indicating the importance of quantifying parametric uncertainties in LULCC downscaling models for integrated assessment studies.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

2015-01-01

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

Systems change resulting from HIV/AIDS education and training. A cross-cutting evaluation of nine innovative projects.

PubMed

Henderson, H; German, V F; Panter, A T; Huba, G J; Rohweder, C; Zalumas, J; Wolfe, L; Uldall, K K; Lalonde, B; Henderson, R; Driscoll, M; Martin, S; Duggan, S; Rahimian, A; Melchior, L A

1999-12-01

An evaluation of nine diverse HIV/AIDS training programs assessed the degree to which the programs produced changes in the ways that health care systems deliver HIV/AIDS care. Participants were interviewed an average of 8 months following completion of training and asked for specific examples of a resulting change in their health care system. More than half of the trainees gave at least one example of a systems change. The examples included the way patient referrals are made, the manner in which agency collaborations are organized, and the way care is delivered.

People and the Arctic: A Prospectus for Research on the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) for the National Science Foundation Arctic System Science Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, AK.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program was established in 1990 to develop scientific projections of anticipated impacts of the changing biosphere on humans and social systems. As part of this program, the National Science Foundation created the Arctic System Science Program (ARCSS). This document describes the ARCSS Human Dimensions of the Arctic…

[Factors of success in the implementation of the technologies of the information and the communication in the health systems. The human factor].

PubMed

Roman-Viñas, Ramón

2010-02-01

In this work some of the fundamentals of change management techniques to ensure the introduction of information and communication technologies in health organizations are analized. Managing change is aimed at redirecting the impact of any transformation process in the organizations towards a positive attitude and enthusiasm of those involved. That is, this paper analyzes the most important of all factors that must be managed in any project for change: the human factor. If a proper change management is a critical success factor in implementing new processes and systems of information and communication technologies (ICT) in an organization, when we faced with the introduction of new processes and interoperability systems between different organizations, cooperation, leadership and motivation of individuals focused on a common goal is absolutely imperative. This is the case of the new ICT systems being introduced in the Catalan Health System. Indeed, by definition of the model itself, in Catalonia, continuity of care, increased efficiency and effectiveness and quality improvement of projects as the clinical history shared, electronic prescriptions, or scanning medical imaging, require necessarily the definition of processes in which a large number of different health organizations, different in their law status, and whose own interests should converge towards the ICT systems and processes of health care so that the contribution of all parties can make a whole. The success of these projects, a reality nowadays, is due largely to the management of the human factor conducted continuously since its inception. 2010 Elsevier España S.L. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qui, Songgang; Galbraith, Ross

This final report summarizes the final results of the Phase II Innovative Application of Maintenance-Free Phase-Change Thermal Energy Storage for Dish-Engine Solar Power Generation project being performed by Infinia Corporation for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-FC36-08GO18157 during the project period of September 1, 2009 - August 30, 2012. The primary objective of this project is to demonstrate the practicality of integrating thermal energy storage (TES) modules, using a suitable thermal salt phase-change material (PCM) as its medium, with a dish/Stirling engine; enabling the system to operate during cloud transients and to provide dispatchable power for 4 tomore » 6 hours after sunset. A laboratory prototype designed to provide 3 kW-h of net electrical output was constructed and tested at Infinia's Ogden Headquarters. In the course of the testing, it was determined that the system's heat pipe network - used to transfer incoming heat from the solar receiver to both the Stirling generator heater head and to the phase change salt - did not perform to expectations. The heat pipes had limited capacity to deliver sufficient heat energy to the generator and salt mass while in a charging mode, which was highly dependent on the orientation of the device (vertical versus horizontal). In addition, the TES system was only able to extract about 30 to 40% of the expected amount of energy from the phase change salt once it was fully molten. However, the use of heat pipes to transfer heat energy to and from a thermal energy storage medium is a key technical innovation, and the project team feels that the limitations of the current device could be greatly improved with further development. A detailed study of manufacturing costs using the prototype TES module as a basis indicates that meeting DOE LCOE goals with this hardware requires significant efforts. Improvement can be made by implementing aggressive cost-down initiatives in design and materials, improving system performance by boosting efficiencies, and by refining cost estimates with vendor quotes in lieu of mass-based approaches. Although the prototype did not fully demonstrate performance and realize projected cost targets, the project team believes that these challenges can be overcome. The test data showed that the performance can be significantly improved by refining the heat pipe designs. However, the project objective for phase 3 is to design and test on sun the field ready systems, the project team feels that is necessary to further refine the prototype heat pipe design in the current prototype TES system before move on to field test units, Phase 3 continuation will not be pursued.« less

Hydrology for a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, R. M.

2017-12-01

To support critical decisions related to water quantity, quality, and hazard mitigation, surface water hydrologists and water resources engineers have historically invoked the assumption that hydrologic systems are stationary; variables such as discharge or solute fluxes were assumed to have a mean, a variance, and other statistical properties that did not change over time. Today, the drivers of non-stationarity such as urbanization, groundwater depletion, engineered land-drainage systems, application of nutrients at the land surface, new farming technologies, and changes in greenhouse gas forcing of the global atmosphere have perturbed hydrologic systems enough so that this assumption must be challenged. Understanding of the non-stationarity in hydrologic systems is important for at least two major reasons: (1) Society needs insights on the hydrologic conditions of the future as a basis for planning, operating, and regulating water resources in the future. Water resources engineers cannot depend solely on records of the past to design and operate in the future. However, simply substituting model projections for historic records, without evaluation of the ability of those models to produce realistic projections, is not acceptable. (2) Non-stationarity provides a framework to identify emerging water resource issues and evaluate our society's success in achieving its environmental goals. The study of hydrologic change is our greatest challenge. We must learn how best to blend our knowledge of the past with our projections of the future. In this non-stationary world, observing systems and networks become even more critically important and our models must be tested using historical records to ensure that they produce useful projections of our future. In the words of Ralph Keeling, "The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking the changes decade after decade, and poring over the records." Walter Langbein knew the importance of all parts of this process: both data collection and data analysis. We need to step up our efforts to understand the past, in order to help society better understand and manage our changing world.

Improving Undergraduate Climate Change Literacy through Writing: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small Griswold, Jennifer D.

2017-01-01

A climate-literate population, capable of making informed decisions related to climate change, is of critical importance as society faces ever-increasing global temperatures and changes in the climate system. This project evaluates the effectiveness of a novel instructional approach that incorporates climate change science into a first-year…

Making the most of MBSE: pragmatic model-based engineering for the SKA Telescope Manager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Roux, Gerhard; Bridger, Alan; MacIntosh, Mike; Nicol, Mark; Schnetler, Hermine; Williams, Stewart

2016-08-01

Many large projects including major astronomy projects are adopting a Model Based Systems Engineering approach. How far is it possible to get value for the effort involved in developing a model that accurately represents a significant project such as SKA? Is it possible for such a large project to ensure that high-level requirements are traceable through the various system-engineering artifacts? Is it possible to utilize the tools available to produce meaningful measures for the impact of change? This paper shares one aspect of the experience gained on the SKA project. It explores some of the recommended and pragmatic approaches developed, to get the maximum value from the modeling activity while designing the Telescope Manager for the SKA. While it is too early to provide specific measures of success, certain areas are proving to be the most helpful and offering significant potential over the lifetime of the project. The experience described here has been on the 'Cameo Systems Modeler' tool-set, supporting a SysML based System Engineering approach; however the concepts and ideas covered would potentially be of value to any large project considering a Model based approach to their Systems Engineering.

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John; Beville, Shelly; Britsch, Del; Hartley, Stephen; Hawes, Suzanne; Johnston, James; Kemp, Paul; Kinler, Quin; Martucci, Antonio; Porthouse, Jon; Reed, Denise; Roy, Kevin; Sapkota, Sijan; Suhayda, Joseph

2003-01-01

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Arterial catheter complications and management problems: observations from AACN's Thunder Project.

PubMed

1993-09-01

Arterial cannulation, while common in critical care, is a procedure with attendant risks of complications. Anecdotal data from the American Association of Critical Care Nurses' Thunder Project provided evidence that catheters, insertion sites, and monitoring systems continue to be sources of complications. The problems have not changed since arterial cannulation began. Line management issues cannot be resolved until low-maintenance systems are developed.

Research in nonlinear structural and solid mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccomb, H. G., Jr. (Compiler); Noor, A. K. (Compiler)

1981-01-01

Recent and projected advances in applied mechanics, numerical analysis, computer hardware and engineering software, and their impact on modeling and solution techniques in nonlinear structural and solid mechanics are discussed. The fields covered are rapidly changing and are strongly impacted by current and projected advances in computer hardware. To foster effective development of the technology perceptions on computing systems and nonlinear analysis software systems are presented.

Patterns-Based IS Change Management in SMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makna, Janis; Kirikova, Marite

The majority of information systems change management guidelines and standards are either too abstract or too bureaucratic to be easily applicable in small enterprises. This chapter proposes the approach, the method, and the prototype that are designed especially for information systems change management in small and medium enterprises. The approach is based on proven patterns of changes in the set of information systems elements. The set of elements was obtained by theoretical analysis of information systems and business process definitions and enterprise architectures. The patterns were evolved from a number of information systems theories and tested in 48 information systems change management projects. The prototype presents and helps to handle three basic change patterns, which help to anticipate the overall scope of changes related to particular elementary changes in an enterprise information system. The use of prototype requires just basic knowledge in organizational business process and information management.

Bench-Scale Process for Low-Cost Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture Using a Phase-Changing Absorbent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Westendorf, Tiffany; Caraher, Joel; Chen, Wei

2015-03-31

The objective of this project is to design and build a bench-scale process for a novel phase-changing aminosilicone-based CO2-capture solvent. The project will establish scalability and technical and economic feasibility of using a phase-changing CO2-capture absorbent for post-combustion capture of CO2 from coal-fired power plants with 90% capture efficiency and 95% CO2 purity at a cost of $40/tonne of CO2 captured by 2025 and a cost of <$10/tonne of CO2 captured by 2035. In the first budget period of this project, the bench-scale phase-changing CO2 capture process was designed using data and operating experience generated under a previous project (ARPA-emore » project DE-AR0000084). Sizing and specification of all major unit operations was completed, including detailed process and instrumentation diagrams. The system was designed to operate over a wide range of operating conditions to allow for exploration of the effect of process variables on CO2 capture performance.« less

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

Teaching Math and Science: Improving Instruction through Local Systemic Change Initiatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Iris R.; Pasley, Joan D.

2007-01-01

Local Systemic Change projects, funded by the National Science Foundation, were designed to help teachers of mathematics and science deepen their content knowledge and improve their instructional practices. Ms. Weiss and Ms. Pasley describe how these aims were accomplished through a combination of intensive professional development and follow-up…

Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David D. Briske; Joel R. Brown; H. Wayne Polley; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

2013-01-01

Recent climatic trends and climate model projections indicate that climate change will modify rangeland ecosystem functions and the services and livelihoods that they provision. Recent history has demonstrated that climatic variability has a strong influence on both ecological and social components of rangeland systems and that these systems possess substantial...

Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on winter wheat and cropping system performance across precipitation gradients in the inland Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among str...

Closing the Gap--Information Systems Curriculum and Changing Global Market

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henson, Kerry; Kamal, Mustafa

2010-01-01

The power of outsourcing basic computing technology such as computer programming, database design, customer service operations and system development, to mention a few have changed the conditions of employment in IT. Many of the projects that went off-shore did not perform well due to failure to consider important factors in business dimensions.

Cropping and tillage systems effects on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

The Global Systems Science High School Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, A. D.; Sneider, C.; Farmer, E.; Erickson, J.

2015-12-01

Global Systems Science (GSS), a high school integrated interdisciplinary science project based at Lawrence Hall of Science at UC Berkeley, began in the early 1990s as a single book "Planet at Risk" which was only about climate change. Federal grants enabled the project to enlist about 150 teachers to field test materials in their classes and then meeting in summer institutes to share results and effect changes. The result was a series of smaller modules dealing not only with climate change, but other related topics including energy flow, energy use, ozone, loss of biodiversity, and ecosystem change. Other relevant societal issues have also been incorporated including economics, psychology and sociology. The course has many investigations/activities for student to pursue, interviews with scientists working in specific areas of research, and historical contexts. The interconnectedness of a myriad of small and large systems became an overarching theme of the resulting course materials which are now available to teachers for free online at http://www.globalsystemsscience.org/

32 CFR 701.117 - Changes to PA systems of records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... wishing to create a new PA system of records must conduct a risk analysis of the proposed system to consider the sensitivity and use of the records; present and projected threats and vulnerabilities; and...

Lessons Learned from Applications of a Climate Change Decision Tree toWater System Projects in Kenya and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

The Decision Tree Framework developed for the World Bank's Water Partnership Program provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner is empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a "bottom-up" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (e.g., economic, environmental, demographic, political). It helps identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected. Lessons learned through application of the Decision Tree to case studies in Kenya and Nepal will be presented, and aspects of the framework requiring further refinement will be described.

Indicators for Assessing Climate Change Resilience Resulting from Emplacement of Green Infrastructure Projects Across an Urban Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parish, E. S.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Nugent, P.

2015-12-01

Many U.S. cities are exploring the potential of using green infrastructure (e.g., porous pavements, green roofs, street planters) to reduce urban storm water runoff, which can be both be a nuisance and costly to treat. While tools exist to measure local runoff changes resulting from individual green infrastructure (GI) projects, most municipalities currently have no method of analyzing the collective impact of GI projects on urban stormwater systems under future rainfall scenarios and impervious surface distribution patterns. Using the mid-sized city of Knoxville, Tennessee as a case study, we propose a set of indicators that can be used to monitor and analyze the collective effects of GI emplacement on urban storm water runoff volumes as well as to quantify potential co-benefits of GI projects (e.g., urban heat island reduction, reduced stream scouring) under different climate projection ensembles and population growth scenarios. These indicators are intended to help the city prioritize GI projects as opportunities arise, as well as to track the effectiveness of GI implementation over time. We explore the aggregation of these indicators across different spatial scales (e.g., plot, neighborhood, watershed, city) in order to assess potential changes in climate change resilience resulting from the collective implementation of GI projects across an urban landscape.

Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

PubMed

Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

2000-01-01

The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject. Analyses of divorced women's economic well-being by major socioeconomic characteristics such as race and ethnicity and education are of particular interest. Such analyses can be supported by the MINT data system.

Income-based projections of water footprint of food consumption in Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djanibekov, Nodir; Frohberg, Klaus; Djanibekov, Utkur

2013-11-01

Assessing future water requirements for feeding the growing population of Central Asia can improve understanding of the projected water supply scenarios in the region. Future water requirements will be partially determined by the dietary habits of the populations, and are thus responsive to significant variation of income levels. Using Uzbekistan as an example, this study projects the water footprints of income driven changes on the population's diet in Central Asia. To reveal the influence of large income changes on dietary habits a Normalized Quadratic-Quadratic Expenditure System was calibrated and applied to data from 2009. The national water footprints of food consumption in Uzbekistan were projected until 2034 by applying the parameterized demand system to estimate the respective water footprint values. The results showed that for Uzbekistan the projected increase in the food consumption water footprint would be primarily linked to income growth rather than population growth. Due to the high water footprint of common food products, the composition of the population's diet, and responsiveness to income, economic growth is expected to put greater pressure on water resources in Uzbekistan unless proper measures are undertaken.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

PubMed

Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

2014-03-01

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Constructing alternative futures

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Robert Huggett; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

The desired product of the Southern Forest Futures Project is a mechanism that will help southerners think about and prepare for future changes in their forests and the benefits they provide. Because any single projection of the world’s (or a region’s) biological, physical, and social systems has a high probability of being incorrect, the Futures Project instead...

The deep space network, volume 10

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

Progress on the Deep Space Network (DSN) supporting research and technology is reported. The objectives, functions and facilities of the DSN are described along with the mission support for the following: interplanetary flight projects, planetary flight projects, and manned space flight projects. Work in advanced engineering and communications systems is reported along with changes in hardware and software configurations in the DSN/MSFN tracking stations.

Results of a Survey Software Development Project Management in the U.S. Aerospace Industry. Volume III. Major Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-18

simplifies the staffing of a project and assures the experience is ’ recyclable ’." "Staff or members are considered ’universal experts’. During estimation...impact of changes upon the original system." "Project reviews are typically exercises in trivia ." [Keider, 1974] ____ ,,, , _ 55 "First, [lesson

Students in a School Environment: A Project Focused on Family Involvement of At-Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denney, Pat

2011-01-01

This project examined family involvement of at risk students in mid-west communities. The purpose of this project was to study the affect of family involvement on at-risk student achievement. The redefining of the perception of America has resulted in a crisis of academic performance in the traditionally slow-changing education systems. This topic…

Evaluating Systemic Change in the National Head Start-Public School Transition Project: Perspectives from Five States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, Andrea; And Others

In 1991 the Department of Health and Human Services funded 32 sites throughout the United States to develop and implement Head Start-Public School Early Childhood Transition Demonstration Projects. The purpose of 31 projects, which are in their fourth year of operation, is to stimulate partnerships among Head Start agencies, public schools, and…

Assessing Australian Rainfall Projections in Two Model Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taschetto, A.; Haarsma, R. D.; Sen Gupta, A.

2016-02-01

Australian climate is projected to change with increases in greenhouse gases. The IPCC reports an increase in extreme daily rainfall across the country. At the same time, mean rainfall over southeast Australia is projected to reduce during austral winter, but to increase during austral summer, mainly associated with changes in the surrounding oceans. Climate models agree better on the future reduction of average rainfall over the southern regions of Australia compared to the increase in extreme rainfall events. One of the reasons for this disagreement may be related to climate model limitations in simulating the observed mechanisms associated with the mid-latitude weather systems, in particular due to coarse model resolutions. In this study we investigate how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affect Australian mean and extreme rainfall under global warming, using a suite of numerical experiments at two model resolutions: about 126km (T159) and 25km (T799). The numerical experiments are performed with the earth system model EC-EARTH. Two 6-member ensembles are produced for the present day conditions and a future scenario. The present day ensemble is forced with the observed daily SST from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center from 2002 to 2006. The future scenario simulation is integrated from 2094 to 2098 using the present day SST field added onto the future SST change created from a 17-member ensemble based on the RCP4.5 scenario. Preliminary results show an increase in extreme rainfall events over Tasmania associated with enhanced convection driven by the Tasman Sea warming. We will further discuss how the projected changes in SST will impact the southern mid-latitude weather systems that ultimately affect Australian rainfall.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts. PMID:21957451

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

PubMed

Cloern, James E; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D; Morgan, Tara L; Schoellhamer, David H; Stacey, Mark T; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R Wayne; Jassby, Alan D

2011-01-01

Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

A developmental approach to mentalizing communities: I. A model for social change.

PubMed

Twemlow, Stuart W; Fonagy, Peter; Sacco, Frank C

2005-01-01

A developmental model is proposed applying attachment theory to complex social systems to promote social change. The idea of mentalizing communities is outlined with a proposal for three projects testing the model: ways to reduce bullying and create a peaceful climate in schools, projects to promote compassion in cities by a focus of end-of-life care, and a mentalization-based intervention into parenting style of borderline and substance abusing parents.

WISE: Automated support for software project management and measurement. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramakrishnan, Sudhakar

1995-01-01

One important aspect of software development and IV&V is measurement. Unless a software development effort is measured in some way, it is difficult to judge the effectiveness of current efforts and predict future performances. Collection of metrics and adherence to a process are difficult tasks in a software project. Change activity is a powerful indicator of project status. Automated systems that can handle change requests, issues, and other process documents provide an excellent platform for tracking the status of the project. A World Wide Web based architecture is developed for (a) making metrics collection an implicit part of the software process, (b) providing metric analysis dynamically, (c) supporting automated tools that can complement current practices of in-process improvement, and (d) overcoming geographical barrier. An operational system (WISE) instantiates this architecture allowing for the improvement of software process in a realistic environment. The tool tracks issues in software development process, provides informal communication between the users with different roles, supports to-do lists (TDL), and helps in software process improvement. WISE minimizes the time devoted to metrics collection, analysis, and captures software change data. Automated tools like WISE focus on understanding and managing the software process. The goal is improvement through measurement.

A CMMI-based approach for medical software project life cycle study.

PubMed

Chen, Jui-Jen; Su, Wu-Chen; Wang, Pei-Wen; Yen, Hung-Chi

2013-01-01

In terms of medical techniques, Taiwan has gained international recognition in recent years. However, the medical information system industry in Taiwan is still at a developing stage compared with the software industries in other nations. In addition, systematic development processes are indispensable elements of software development. They can help developers increase their productivity and efficiency and also avoid unnecessary risks arising during the development process. Thus, this paper presents an application of Light-Weight Capability Maturity Model Integration (LW-CMMI) to Chang Gung Medical Research Project (CMRP) in the Nuclear medicine field. This application was intended to integrate user requirements, system design and testing of software development processes into three layers (Domain, Concept and Instance) model. Then, expressing in structural System Modeling Language (SysML) diagrams and converts part of the manual effort necessary for project management maintenance into computational effort, for example: (semi-) automatic delivery of traceability management. In this application, it supports establishing artifacts of "requirement specification document", "project execution plan document", "system design document" and "system test document", and can deliver a prototype of lightweight project management tool on the Nuclear Medicine software project. The results of this application can be a reference for other medical institutions in developing medical information systems and support of project management to achieve the aim of patient safety.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

Software Configuration Management Plan for the B-Plant Canyon Ventilation Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MCDANIEL, K.S.

1999-08-31

Project W-059 installed a new B Plant Canyon Ventilation System. Monitoring and control of the system is implemented by the Canyon Ventilation Control System (CVCS). This Software Configuration Management Plan provides instructions for change control of the CVCS.

The Oral Health Care Delivery System in 2040: Executive Summary.

PubMed

Bailit, Howard L

2017-09-01

This executive summary for Section 4 of the "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century" project examines the projected oral health care delivery system in 2040 and the likely impact of system changes on dental education. Dental care is at an early stage of major changes with the decline in solo practice and increase in large group practices. These groups are not consolidated at the state level, but further consolidation is expected as they try to increase their negotiating leverage with dental insurers. At this time, there is limited integration of medical and dental care in terms of financing, regulation, education, and delivery. This pattern may change as health maintenance organizations and integrated medical systems begin to offer dental care to their members. By 2040, it is expected that many dentists will be employed in large group practices and working with allied dental staff with expanded duties and other health professionals, and more dental graduates will seek formal postdoctoral training to obtain better positions in group practices.

Practicing Conservation Agriculture to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change in Jordan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Saeb

2016-04-01

Climate change scenarios indicate that Jordan and the Middle East could suffer from reduced agricultural productivity and water availability among other negative impacts. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6 °C by 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. The dominant form of agriculture system in Jordan is based on intensive tillage. This form of tillage has resulted in large losses of organic soil carbon, weaker soil structure, and cause compaction. It has negative effects on soil aeration, root development and water infiltration among other factors. There is a need to transform farming practices to conservation agriculture to sequester carbon so that climate change mitigation becomes an inherent property of future farming systems. Conservation Agriculture, a system avoiding or minimizing soil disturbance, combined with soil cover and crop diversification, is considered to be a sustainable production system that can also sequester carbon unlike tillage agriculture. Conservation agriculture promotes minimal disturbance of the soil by tillage (zero tillage), balanced application of chemical inputs and careful management of residues and wastes. This study was conducted to develop a clear understanding of the impacts and benefits of the two most common types of agriculture, traditional tillage agriculture and conservation agriculture with respect to their effects on land productivity and on soil carbon pools. The study results indicated that conservation agriculture contributed to the reduction of the farming systems' greenhouse gas emissions and enhance its role as carbon sinks. Also, it was found that by shifting to conservation agriculture labor cost needed for land preparation through tillage systems decreased by 40-60% as a result of fuel and time-saving in the operations. The mean biological and grain yield by applying conservation agriculture have increased between 14-35% compared to conventional agriculture. It is concluded that there is a correlation between CO2 loss and tillage intensity and that a shift from traditional agriculture to Conservation agriculture can contribute to making agricultural systems more resilient to climate change.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

PubMed

Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

2017-01-01

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Long-term athlete development Canada: attempting system change and multi-agency cooperation.

PubMed

Norris, Stephen R

2010-01-01

This text provides a synopsis, as well as some greater detail, concerning the "Canadian Sport for Life" project Long-Term Athlete Development Canada (LTAD) initiated in 2004. The genesis of the project may be found in the Canadian Sport Policy released in 2002 by Sport Canada, the sport participation and performance agency within the Canadian Heritage Ministry of the Canadian Government. The project has grown from relatively humble beginnings to become a system-wide movement and catalyst for change that encompasses not only sport participation and excellence, but also aspects to do with education, health, and general recreation. Additionally, it involves all age groups (cradle to grave). Although the project was initiated on behalf of performance sport, it is a clear example of how sport can influence and interact with many facets of a society. In Canada, LTAD clearly is tied to a philosophy that spans a broad narrative from healthy active lives to elite sport performance.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptation of trees, forests and forestry to climate change

Treesearch

Daniel J. Chmura; Glenn T. Howe; Paul D. Anderson; Bradley J. St Clair

2010-01-01

Ongoing climate change will likely expose trees and forests to new stresses and disturbances during this century. Trees naturally adapt to changes in climate, but their natural adaptive ability may be compromised by the rapid changes projected for this century. In the broad sense, adaptation to climate change also includes the purposeful adaptation of human systems,...

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies From Concept to Mission Infusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Beck, Robin; Ellerby, Donald; Feldman, Jay; Gage, Peter; Munk, Michelle; Wercinski, Paul

2016-01-01

NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) and the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) were created to develop new technologies. This paper describes four entry system technologies that are funded by the GCDP and summarizes the lessons learned during the development. The investments are already beginning to show success, mission infusion pathways after five years of existence. It is hoped that our experience and observations, drawn from projects supported by the GCD program/STMD, Orion and SMD can help current and future technology development projects. Observations on fostering a culture of success and on constraints that limit greater success are also provided.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Operational Experience from Solar Thermal Energy Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cameron, C. P.

1984-01-01

Over the past few years, Sandia National Laboratories were involved in the design, construction, and operation of a number of DOE-sponsored solar thermal energy systems. Among the systems currently in operation are several industrial process heat projects and the Modular Industrial Solar Retrofit qualification test systems, all of which use parabolic troughs, and the Shenandoah Total Energy Project, which uses parabolic dishes. Operational experience has provided insight to both desirable and undesirable features of the designs of these systems. Features of these systems which are also relevant to the design of parabolic concentrator thermal electric systems are discussed. Other design features discussed are system control functions which were found to be especially convenient or effective, such as local concentrator controls, rainwash controls, and system response to changing isolation. Drive systems are also discussed with particular emphasis of the need for reliability and the usefulness of a manual drive capability.

Jet engine nozzle exit configurations and associated systems and methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengle, Vinod G. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

Nozzle exit configurations and associated systems and methods are disclosed. An aircraft system in accordance with one embodiment includes a jet engine exhaust nozzle having an internal flow surface and an exit aperture, with the exit aperture having a perimeter that includes multiple projections extending in an aft direction. Aft portions of individual neighboring projections are spaced apart from each other by a gap, and a geometric feature of the multiple can change in a monotonic manner along at least a portion of the perimeter.

Jet Engine Nozzle Exit Configurations and Associated Systems and Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengle, Vinod G. (Inventor)

2013-01-01

Nozzle exit configurations and associated systems and methods are disclosed. An aircraft system in accordance with one embodiment includes a jet engine exhaust nozzle having an internal flow surface and an exit aperture, with the exit aperture having a perimeter that includes multiple projections extending in an aft direction. Aft portions of individual neighboring projections are spaced apart from each other by a gap, and a geometric feature of the multiple can change in a monotonic manner along at least a portion of the perimeter.

NASA's In-Situ Resource Utilization Project: Current Accomplishments and Exciting Future Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, William E.; Sanders, Gerald B.; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

2010-01-01

The utilization of Space resources has been identified in publications for over 40 years for its potential as a "game changing" technology for the human exploration of Space. It is called "game changing" because of the mass leverage possible when local resources at the exploration destination arc used to reduce or even eliminate resources that are brought from the Earth. NASA, under the Exploration Technology Development Program has made significant investments in the development of Space resource utilization technologies as a part of the In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) project. Over the last four years, the ISRU project has taken what was essentially an academic topic with lots of experimentation but little engineering and produced near-full-scale systems that have been demonstrated. In 2008 & again in early 2010, systems that could produce oxygen from lunar soils (or their terrestrial analogs) were tested at a lunar analog site on a volcano in Hawaii. These demonstrations included collaborations with International Partners that made significant contributions to the tests. The proposed federal budget for Fiscal Year 2011 encourages the continued development and demonstration of ISRU. However it goes beyond what the project is currently doing and directs that the scope of the project be expanded to cover destinations throughout the inner solar system with the potential for night demonstrations. This paper will briefly cover the past accomplishments of the ISRU project then move to a di scussion of the plans for the project's future as NASA moves to explore a new paradigm for Space Exploration that includes orbital fuel depots and even refueling on other planetary bodies in the solar system.

Bench Scale Process for Low Cost CO 2 Capture Using a Phase-Changing Absorbent: Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Westendorf, Tiffany; Buddle, Stanlee; Caraher, Joel

The objective of this project is to design and build a bench-scale process for a novel phase-changing aminosilicone-based CO 2-capture solvent. The project will establish scalability and technical and economic feasibility of using a phase-changing CO 2-capture absorbent for post-combustion capture of CO 2 from coal-fired power plants. The U.S. Department of Energy’s goal for Transformational Carbon Capture Technologies is the development of technologies available for demonstration by 2025 that can capture 90% of emitted CO 2 with at least 95% CO 2 purity for less than $40/tonne of CO 2 captured. In the first budget period of the project,more » the bench-scale phase-changing CO2 capture process was designed using data and operating experience generated under a previous project (ARPA-e project DE-AR0000084). Sizing and specification of all major unit operations was completed, including detailed process and instrumentation diagrams. The system was designed to operate over a wide range of operating conditions to allow for exploration of the effect of process variables on CO 2 capture performance. In the second budget period of the project, individual bench-scale unit operations were tested to determine the performance of each of each unit. Solids production was demonstrated in dry simulated flue gas across a wide range of absorber operating conditions, with single stage CO 2 conversion rates up to 75mol%. Desorber operation was demonstrated in batch mode, resulting in desorption performance consistent with the equilibrium isotherms for GAP-0/CO 2 reaction. Important risks associated with gas humidity impact on solids consistency and desorber temperature impact on thermal degradation were explored, and adjustments to the bench-scale process were made to address those effects. Corrosion experiments were conducted to support selection of suitable materials of construction for the major unit operations in the process. The bench scale unit operations were assembled into a continuous system to support steady state system testing. In the third budget period of the project, continuous system testing was conducted, including closed-loop operation of the absorber and desober systems. Slurries of GAP-0/GAP-0 carbamate/water mixtures produced in the absorber were pumped successfully to the desorber unit, and regenerated solvent was returned to the absorber. A techno-economic analysis, EH&S risk assessment, and solvent manufacturability study were completed.« less

LCMS landscape change monitoring system—results from an information needs assessment

Treesearch

Kevin Megown; Brian Schwind; Don Evans; Mark Finco

2015-01-01

Understanding changes in land use and land cover over space and time provides an important means to evaluate complex interactions between human and biophysical systems, to project future conditions, and to design mitigation and adaptive management strategies. Assessing and monitoring landscape change is evolving into a foundational element of climate change adaptation...

integrated Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andew; Di Vittorio, Alan; Collins, William

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems.« less

Student projects in medicine: a lesson in science and ethics.

PubMed

Edwards, Sarah J L

2009-11-01

Regulation of biomedical research is the subject of considerable debate in the bioethics and health policy worlds. The ethics and governance of medical student projects is becoming an increasingly important topic in its own right, especially in the U.K., where there are periodic calls to change it. My main claim is that there seems to be no good reason for treating student projects differently from projects led by qualified and more experienced scientists and hence no good grounds for changing the current system of ethics review. I first suggest that the educational objectives cannot be met without laying down standards of good science, whatever they may be. Weak science is unnecessary for educational purposes, and it is, in any case, unlikely to produce good researchers in the future. Furthermore, it is curious to want to change the system of ethics review specifically for students when it is the science that is at stake, and when the science now falls largely outside the ethics remit. I further show that ethics review is nevertheless important since students carry a new potential conflict of interests that warrants independent oversight which supervisory support does not offer. This potential conflict may become more morally troublesome the greater the risks to the subjects of the research, and students may impose greater risks on their subjects (relative to professional researchers) by virtue of being inexperienced, whatever the nature of the project. Pragmatic concerns may finally be allayed by organizing the current system more efficiently at critical times of the university calendar.

Earth Science Teaching Strategies Used in the International Polar Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.

2009-04-01

There are many effective methods for teaching earth science education that are being successfully used during the fourth International Polar Year (IPY). Relevance of IPY and the polar regions is better understood using a systems thinking approach used in earth science education. Changes in components of the earth system have a global effect; and changes in the polar regions will affect the rest of the world regions and vice versa. Teaching strategies successfully used for primary, secondary, undergraduate and graduate student earth science education and IPY education outreach include: 1) engaging students in earth science or environmental research relevant to their locale; 2) blending lectures with research expeditions or field studies, 3) connecting students with scientists in person and through audio and video conferencing; 4) combining science and arts in teaching, learning and communicating about earth science and the polar regions, capitalizing on the uniqueness of polar regions and its inhabitants, and its sensitivity to climate change; and 5) integrating different perspectives: western science, indigenous and community knowledge in the content and method of delivery. Use of these strategies are exemplified in IPY projects in the University of the Arctic IPY Higher Education Outreach Project cluster such as the GLOBE Seasons and Biomes project, the Ice Mysteries e-Polar Books: An Innovative Way of Combining Science and Literacy project, the Resilience and Adaptation Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship project, and the Svalbard Research Experience for Undergraduates project.

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

DOE PAGES

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; ...

2015-06-10

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

A CAS Project Ten Years On

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garner, Sue; Pierce, Robyn

2016-01-01

Although research shows that Computer Algebra Systems offer pedagogical opportunities, more than a decade later some teachers are reluctant to change established practices. In 2002, the University of Melbourne in Australia launched a research project to investigate implementation of a senior mathematics course in which students could use a…

Curriculum Adaptation for Inclusive Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neary, Tom; And Others

This manual on curriculum adaptation for inclusive classrooms was developed as part of the PEERS (Providing Education for Everyone in Regular Schools) Project, a 5-year collaborative systems change project in California to facilitate the integration of students with severe disabilities previously at special centers into services at regular school…

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The Baltimore Summit Project on Career Development/PERFORMS Enhancement/360 Evaluations for All has made some progress. We have identified the fact that we cannot change the current Pass/Fail PERFORMS system to a tiered system. The current pass/fail system does not have a mechani...

Social and Economic Change in Southern Africa. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad Program, Summer 1991. [Curriculum Projects and Papers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute of International Education, New York, NY.

This document presents curriculum projects and papers written by U.S. teachers who traveled to countries in Southern Africa in the summer of 1991 as part of the Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad Program. The included projects and papers are: "Through a Glass Darkly: The Enigmatic Educational System of Botswana" (Alan C. Howard);…

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Simulation of the effects of ground-water withdrawals and recharge on ground-water flow in Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket Island basins, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Barlow, Paul M.

1994-01-01

The effects of changing patterns of ground-water pumping and aquifer recharge on the surface-water and ground-water hydrologic systems were determined for the Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket Island Basins. Three-dimensional, transient, ground-water-flow modelS that simulate both freshwater and saltwater flow were developed for the f1ow cells of Cape Cod which currently have large-capacity public-supply wells. Only the freshwater-flow system was simulated for the Cape Cod flow cells where public-water supply demands are satisfied by small-capacity domestic wells. Two- dimensional, finite-difference, change models were developed for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island to determine the projected drawdowns in response to projected in-season pumping rates for 180 days of no aquifer recharge. Results of the simulations indicate very little change in the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface from predevelopment flow conditions to projected ground-water pumping and recharge rates for Cape Cod in the year 2020. Results of change model simulations for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island indicate that the greatest impact in response to projected in-season ground-water pumping occurs at the pumping centers and the magnitude of the drawdowns are minimal with respect to the total thickness of the aquifers.

Computer-Aided Systems Engineering for Flight Research Projects Using a Workgroup Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizukami, Masahi

2004-01-01

An online systems engineering tool for flight research projects has been developed through the use of a workgroup database. Capabilities are implemented for typical flight research systems engineering needs in document library, configuration control, hazard analysis, hardware database, requirements management, action item tracking, project team information, and technical performance metrics. Repetitive tasks are automated to reduce workload and errors. Current data and documents are instantly available online and can be worked on collaboratively. Existing forms and conventional processes are used, rather than inventing or changing processes to fit the tool. An integrated tool set offers advantages by automatically cross-referencing data, minimizing redundant data entry, and reducing the number of programs that must be learned. With a simplified approach, significant improvements are attained over existing capabilities for minimal cost. By using a workgroup-level database platform, personnel most directly involved in the project can develop, modify, and maintain the system, thereby saving time and money. As a pilot project, the system has been used to support an in-house flight experiment. Options are proposed for developing and deploying this type of tool on a more extensive basis.

The ISIS project: Fault-tolerance in large distributed systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birman, Kenneth P.; Marzullo, Keith

1990-01-01

The semi-annual status report covers activities of the ISIS project during the second half of 1989. The project had several independent objectives: (1) At the level of the ISIS Toolkit, ISIS release V2.0 was completed, containing bypass communication protocols. Performance of the system is greatly enhanced by this change, but the initial software release is limited in some respects. (2) The Meta project focused on the definition of the Lomita programming language for specifying rules that monitor sensors for conditions of interest and triggering appropriate reactions. This design was completed, and implementation of Lomita is underway on the Meta 2.0 platform. (3) The Deceit file system effort completed a prototype. It is planned to make Deceit available for use in two hospital information systems. (4) A long-haul communication subsystem project was completed and can be used as part of ISIS. This effort resulted in tools for linking ISIS systems on different LANs together over long-haul communications lines. (5) Magic Lantern, a graphical tool for building application monitoring and control interfaces, is included as part of the general ISIS releases.

Watershed Scale Analysis of Groundwater Surface Water Interactions and Its Application to Conjunctive Management under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stresses over the US Sunbelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Seung Beom

Although water is one of the most essential natural resources, human activities have been exerting pressure on water resources. In order to reduce these stresses on water resources, two key issues threatening water resources sustainability - interaction between surface water and groundwater resources and groundwater withdrawal impacts of streamflow depletion - were investigated in this study. First, a systematic decomposition procedure was proposed for quantifying the errors arising from various sources in the model chain in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes using near-term climate change projections. Apart from the unexplained changes by GCMs, the process of customizing GCM projections to watershed scale through a model chain - spatial downscaling, temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model - also introduces errors, thereby limiting the ability to explain the observed changes in hydrologic variability. Towards this, we first propose metrics for quantifying the errors arising from different steps in the model chain in explaining the observed changes in hydrologic variables (streamflow, groundwater). The proposed metrics are then evaluated using a detailed retrospective analyses in projecting the changes in streamflow and groundwater attributes in four target basins that span across a diverse hydroclimatic regimes over the US Sunbelt. Our analyses focused on quantifying the dominant sources of errors in projecting the changes in eight hydrologic variables - mean and variability of seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 3-day peak seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 7-day low seasonal streamflow and mean and standard deviation of groundwater depth - over four target basins using an Penn state Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) between the period 1956-1980 and 1981-2005. Retrospective analyses show that small/humid (large/arid) basins show increased (reduced) uncertainty in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes. Further, changes in error due to GCMs primarily account for the unexplained changes in mean and variability of seasonal streamflow. On the other hand, the changes in error due to temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model account for the inability to explain the observed changes in mean and variability of seasonal extremes. Thus, the proposed metrics provide insights on how the error in explaining the observed changes being propagated through the model under different hydroclimatic regimes. To understand interaction between surface water and groundwater resources, transient pumping impacts on streamflow and groundwater level were analyzed by imposing shortterm pumping scenarios under historic drought conditions. Since surface water and groundwater systems are fully coupled and integrated systems, increased groundwater withdrawal during drought may reduce baseflow into the stream and prolong both systems' recovery from drought. Towards this, we proposed an uncertainty framework to understand the resiliency of groundwater and surface water systems using a fully-coupled hydrologic model under transient pumping. Using this framework, we quantified the restoration time of surface water and groundwater systems and also estimated the changes in the state variables after pumping. Groundwater pumping impacts over the watershed were also analyzed under different pumping volumes and different potential climate scenarios. Our analyses show that groundwater restoration time is more sensitive to changes in pumping volumes as opposed to changes in climate. After the cessation of pumping, streamflow recovers quickly in comparison to groundwater. Pumping impacts on other state variables are also discussed. Given that surface water and groundwater are inter-connected, optimal management of the both resources should be considered to improve the watershed resiliency under drought. Subsequently, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been considered as an effective approach to mitigate water shortage problems that are primarily caused by a drought. It is found that appropriate use of groundwater withdrawal was able to reduce water scarcity in surface water resources in drought condition. Besides, recovery time constraint was embedded in the management model so that trade-off between minimizing water scarcity and maximizing sustainability on groundwater was successfully addressed.

Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

2013-12-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Empowering Students with Games-for-Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ensmann, Suzanne Y.

2017-01-01

Systemic sustainable change does not happen overnight but begins with the diffusion of knowledge and changing of attitudes (Rogers, 2010). Additionally, games can educate while adjusting attitudes (Gee, 2008; Jones, 2008). For these reasons, this project designed a Digital Game-Based Learning (DGBL) prototype to teach about the basic human rights…

Predicting effects of climate and land use change on human well-being via changes in ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

Landuse and climate change have affected biological systems in many parts of the world, and are projected to further adversely affect associated ecosystem goods and services, including provisioning of clean air, clean water, food, and biodiversity. Such adverse effects on ecosyst...

Overview of Best Practices in Mitigating the Impact of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather Phenomena on European Aviation - The MOWE-IT Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muehlhausen, Thorsten; Kreuz, Michael; Temme, Annette; Nokkala, Marko; Nurmi, Pertti; Perrels, Adriaan; Hyvarinen, Otto; Yuga, Ilkka; Pylkko, Pirkko; Kral, Stephan; Schaetter, Frank; Bartsch, Mariana; Wiens, Marcus; Michaelides, Silas; Tymvios, Filippos; Papadakis, Matheos; Athanasatos, Spyros

2014-05-01

The European transport system has shown various degrees of vulnerability to external shocks such as severe weather events, which have partially or, in some cases, totally shut down part of the transport system. Under climate change conditions, the identification of Best Practices within the European area and the proposal of short, medium and long term solutions in order to deal with induced disruptions are vital to upkeep the efficiency and integrity of the European transport network. The MOWE-IT (Management of weather events in the transport system) project is a continuation of the work performed in up-to-date European projects such as the EWENT, WEATHER and ECCONET projects. Its aim is to identify such existing best practices and to develop methodologies in order to assist transport operators, authorities and transport system users to mitigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather phenomena on transport system performance. While the MOWE-IT project covers a wide number of transportation modes such as road, rail, marine transport, aviation and inland waterways, in this current work, an overview of the project's work performed in the aviation sector in Europe is presented. The MOWE-IT project is funded by the European Union, under its 7th Framework Programme (TRANSPORT SUPPORT ACTIONS).

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.;

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2016-01-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

2016-03-01

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Systemic change increases forecast uncertainty of land use change models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstegen, J. A.; Karssenberg, D.; van der Hilst, F.; Faaij, A.

2013-12-01

Cellular Automaton (CA) models of land use change are based on the assumption that the relationship between land use change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. Evaluation of the stationarity of the relationship between land use and a set of spatial attributes has been done by others (e.g., Bakker and Veldkamp, 2012). These studies, however, use logistic regression, separate from the land use change model. Therefore, they do not gain information on how to implement the spatial attributes into the model. In addition, they often compare observations for only two points in time and do not check whether the change is statistically significant. To overcome these restrictions, we assimilate a time series of observations of real land use into a land use change CA (Verstegen et al., 2012), using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the parameterization and model structure, i.e. the selection and relative importance of the drivers of location of land use change. In a case study of sugar cane expansion in Brazil, optimal model structure and parameterization were determined for each point in time for which observations were available (all years from 2004 to 2012). A systemic change, i.e. a statistically significant deviation in model structure, was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in the neighborhood doubled, while the influence of slope and potential yield decreased by 75% and 25% respectively. Allowing these systemic changes to occur in our CA in the future (up to 2022) resulted in an increase in model forecast uncertainty by a factor two compared to the assumption of a stationary system. This means that the assumption of a constant model structure is not adequate and largely underestimates uncertainty in the forecast. Non-stationarity in land use change projections is challenging to model, because it is difficult to determine when the system will change and how. We believe that, in sight of these findings, land use change modelers should be more aware, and communicate more clearly, that what they try to project is at the limits, and perhaps beyond the limits, of what is still projectable. References Bakker, M., Veldkamp, A., 2012. Changing relationships between land use and environmental characteristics and their consequences for spatially explicit land-use change prediction. Journal of Land Use Science 7, 407-424. Verstegen, J.A., Karssenberg, D., van der Hilst, F., Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty in Spatial Decision Support Systems: a Case Study of Changing Land Availability for Bioenergy Crops in Mozambique. Computers , Environment and Urban Systems 36, 30-42.

Case Study: IRS Business System Modernization Process Improvement

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

31 CMU/SEI-2004-TR-002 iii List of Figures Figure 1: Managing Organizational Change ............................................................ 9...and constant emphasis on training in project management and acquisition, as well as in the SA-CMM. Figure 1: Managing Organizational Change Other

78 FR 25750 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection: Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-02

... proposed projects being developed for submission to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under the... or non-grant designation, and change their scope of project. Burden Statement: Burden in this context... technology and systems for the purpose of collecting, validating and verifying information, processing and...

Origami: An Active Learning Exercise for Scrum Project Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sibona, Christopher; Pourreza, Saba; Hill, Stephen

2018-01-01

Scrum is a popular project management model for iterative delivery of software that subscribes to Agile principles. This paper describes an origami active learning exercise to teach the principles of Scrum in management information systems courses. The exercise shows students how Agile methods respond to changes in requirements during project…

Space Geodesy Project Information and Configuration Management Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merkowitz, Stephen M.

2016-01-01

This plan defines the Space Geodesy Project (SGP) policies, procedures, and requirements for Information and Configuration Management (CM). This procedure describes a process that is intended to ensure that all proposed and approved technical and programmatic baselines and changes to the SGP hardware, software, support systems, and equipment are documented.

Farms and Learning Partnerships in Farming Systems Projects: A Response to the Challenges of Complexity in Agricultural Innovation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Anne; Nettle, Ruth; Paine, Mark; Kabore, Carolyn

2007-01-01

Managing the competing interests of productivity growth, environmental concerns, landscape change and societal expectations presents challenges for agricultural industries. Innovation projects supporting knowledge development to address these challenges often involve partnerships with commercial farms, a methodology which promises much but has…

A color-blind pirate asks, “Do RRR’s make gray and green turn blue?”

EPA Science Inventory

Researchers and managers often do “R” projects when attempting to change conditions in natural and socioeconomic systems. Outputs from restoration, remediation, redevelopment, rehabilitation, reinvestment, and reuse, etc (hence, “R”) projects vary by application but have only a s...

40 CFR 35.3520 - Systems, projects, and project-related costs eligible for assistance from the Fund.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... or upgrade of eligible storage facilities, including finished water reservoirs, to prevent... undertake feasible and appropriate changes in operations to ensure compliance over the long-term. (3... development strategy. (3) Reservoirs or rehabilitation of reservoirs, except for finished water reservoirs and...

Disciplinary Alternatives for an Urban School District.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Carlton E.; Allen, Dwight W.

This paper describes a project that was conducted in six Norfolk, Virginia, public secondary schools to explore the problems associated with the disproportionate involvement of black student in disciplinary actions. The paper also relates the project's efforts to implement changes in the school system that the research activities indicated might…

Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Recent projections of United States carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are considerably lower than those made just a decade ago. A myriad of factors have contributed to lower forecasts, including reductions in end-use energy service demands, improvements in energy efficiency, techno...

Applying Water-Level Difference Control to Central Arizona Project

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Central Arizona Project (CAP) has been supplying Colorado River water to Central Arizona for roughly 25 years. The CAP canal is operated remotely with a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) System. Gate position changes are made either manually or through the use of automatic control...

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

TA-55 change control manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blum, T.W.; Selvage, R.D.; Courtney, K.H.

This manual is the guide for initiating change at the Plutonium Facility, which handles the processing of plutonium as well as research on plutonium metallurgy. It describes the change and work control processes employed at TA-55 to ensure that all proposed changes are properly identified, reviewed, approved, implemented, tested, and documented so that operations are maintained within the approved safety envelope. All Laboratory groups, their contractors, and subcontractors doing work at TA-55 follow requirements set forth herein. This manual applies to all new and modified processes and experiments inside the TA-55 Plutonium Facility; general plant project (GPP) and line itemmore » funded construction projects at TA-55; temporary and permanent changes that directly or indirectly affect structures, systems, or components (SSCs) as described in the safety analysis, including Facility Control System (FCS) software; and major modifications to procedures. This manual does not apply to maintenance performed on process equipment or facility SSCs or the replacement of SSCs or equipment with documented approved equivalents.« less

Some Good Practices for Integration and Outreach and their Implementation in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and its associated web portal CLIMASCOPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Price, J. T.; Goswami, S.

2010-12-01

Successful communication of knowledge to climate change policy makers requires the careful integration of scientific knowledge in an integrated assessment that can be clearly communicated to stakeholders, and which encapsulates the uncertainties in the analysis and conveys the need for using a risk assessment approach. It is important that (i) the system is co-designed with the users (ii) relevant disciplines are included (iii) assumptions made are clear (iv) the robustness of outputs to uncertainties is demonstrated (v) the system is flexible so that it can keep up with changing stakeholder needs and (vi) the results are communicated clearly and are readily accessible. The “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS) is a unique multi-institutional, modular, and flexible integrated assessment system for modeling climate change which fulfils the above six criteria. It differs from other integrated models in being a flexible system allowing various combinations of component modules, to be connected together into alternative integrated assessment models. These modules may be written at different institutions in different computer languages and/or based on different operating systems. Scientists are able determine which particular CIAS coupled model they wish to use through a web portal. This includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental design facilitating formal uncertainty analysis. Further exploration of robustness is possible through the ability to select, for example, alternative hyrdrological or climate models to address the same questions. It has been applied to study future scenarios of climate change mitigation, through for example the AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for DEFRA, in which the avoided impacts (benefits) of alternative climate policies were compared to no-policy baselines. These highlight the potential for mitigation to remove a substantial fraction of the climate change impacts that would otherwise occur; but also show that is not possible to avoid all the impacts, and hence that adaptation will still be required. For example, this has been shown for projections of future European drought. CIAS has also been used for analyses used in the IPCC 4AR and the Stern review. Recent applications include a study of the role of avoided deforestation in climate mitigation, and a study of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. A second web portal, CLIMASCOPE, is being developed for use by stakeholders, currently focusing on the needs of adaptation planners. This will benefit communication by allowing a wide range of users free access to regional climate change projections in simple manner, yet one which encourages risk assessment through encapsulation of the uncertainties in climate change projection. Examples of CLIMASCOPE output that is being made available to stakeholders will be shown.

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutowski, William J.

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASMmore » can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes in the freshwater flux between arctic climate system components resulting from decadal changes in land and sea ice, seasonal snow, vegetation, and ocean circulation. - Changing energetics due to decadal changes in ice mass, vegetation, and air-sea interactions. - The role of small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence decadal variability. This research has been addressing modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change. RASM can facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts.« less

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Enhancing Understanding Of Coupled Human-Natural Systems Through Collaborative Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santelmann, M. V.; Chan, S.; Morzillo, A.; Stebbins, A.; Wright, M.

2012-12-01

In the past decade, it has become clear that the dynamic nature of coupled human-natural systems must be better understood and incorporated into decision making. If the interactions between society and the rest of the ecosystem are poorly represented in system models, our ability to explore the potential consequences of feedbacks between the biophysical system and policy or management actions will be limited. Teams of researchers from three Oregon universities are collaborating with regional experts, water managers, and decision-makers to examine how climate change, population growth, and economic growth may alter the availability and use of water in the Willamette River Basin over the next one hundred years. A central project component is development of a version of the ENVISION modeling framework that will provide decision makers with a way to visualize the Willamette water system and evaluate the interaction of management choices with changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Key objectives of the project broader impacts team include: 1) assist with incorporating the human component of the system into the model, (2) fostering growth of the research team as an interdependent, interdisciplinary research community, and (3) communicating effectively with regional stakeholders. Through Learning-Action Networks we have been able to gather insightful, project-relevant knowledge on water use, management, policies and issues that impact water management in the region. We have identified the types of project outputs that managers and decision makers would find useful for anticipating water scarcity and informing integrative water systems responses. Events and processes used to accomplish our objectives began with field trips involving researchers, educators, and other stakeholders. Follow-up meetings and an all day symposium featured focus group interviews, plenary sessions on project progress, and interactive poster sessions in which participants could help identify water related policies and actions they would like to see modeled. Participants assisted in compiling an interactive table of potential policies and actions organized by water use sector and policy type (e.g., regulatory vs. incentive based). Involvement of K-12 educators and development of innovative interdisciplinary courses has enhanced the broader impacts of the project and helped us achieve multiple project objectives. We present plans to build on initial collaborative learning experiences to promote project outcomes that will advance coupled human-natural systems research and enhance the utility of model outcomes in water management.

Health system strengthening: a qualitative evaluation of implementation experience and lessons learned across five African countries.

PubMed

Rwabukwisi, Felix Cyamatare; Bawah, Ayaga A; Gimbel, Sarah; Phillips, James F; Mutale, Wilbroad; Drobac, Peter

2017-12-21

Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in sub-Saharan Africa will require substantial improvements in the coverage and performance of primary health care delivery systems. Projects supported by the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation's (DDCF) African Health Initiative (AHI) created public-private-academic and community partnerships in five African countries to implement and evaluate district-level health system strengthening interventions. In this study, we captured common implementation experiences and lessons learned to understand core elements of successful health systems interventions. We used qualitative data from key informant interviews and annual progress reports from the five Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) partnership projects funded through AHI in Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Four major overarching lessons were highlighted. First, variety and inclusiveness of concerned key players (public, academic and private) are necessary to address complex health system issues at all levels. Second, a learning culture that promotes evidence creation and ability to efficiently adapt were key in order to meet changing contextual needs. Third, inclusion of strong implementation science tools and strategies allowed informed and measured learning processes and efficient dissemination of best practices. Fourth, five to seven years was the minimum time frame necessary to effectively implement complex health system strengthening interventions and generate the evidence base needed to advocate for sustainable change for the PHIT partnership projects. The AHI experience has raised remaining, if not overlooked, challenges and potential solutions to address complex health systems strengthening intervention designs and implementation issues, while aiming to measurably accomplish sustainable positive change in dynamic, learning, and varied contexts.

Simulated soil organic carbon changes in Maryland are affected by tillage, climate change, and crop yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally-tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC to 50 cm soil depth...

Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

EPA Science Inventory

The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P

2014-02-18

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

Change management and clinical engagement: critical elements for a successful clinical information system implementation.

PubMed

Detwiller, Maureen; Petillion, Wendy

2014-06-01

Moving a large healthcare organization from an old, nonstandardized clinical information system to a new user-friendly, standards-based system was much more than an upgrade to technology. This project to standardize terminology, optimize key processes, and implement a new clinical information system was a large change initiative over 4 years that affected clinicians across the organization. Effective change management and engagement of clinical stakeholders were critical to the success of the initiative. The focus of this article was to outline the strategies and methodologies used and the lessons learned.

Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2016-03-01

A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

SDN Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Rhett

The SDN Project completed on time and on budget and successfully accomplished 100% of the scope of work outlined in the original Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The SDN Project formed an alliance between Ameren Corporation, University of Illinois Urbana- Champaign (UIUC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). The objective of the SDN Project is to address Topic Area of Interest 2: Sustain critical energy delivery functions while responding to a cyber-intrusion under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000797. The goal of the project is to design and commercially release technology that provides a method to sustainmore » critical energy delivery functions during a cyber intrusion and to do this control system operators need the ability to quickly identify and isolate the affected network areas, and re-route critical information and control flows around. The objective of the SDN Project is to develop a Flow Controller that monitors, configures, and maintains the safe, reliable network traffic flows of all the local area networks (LANs) on a control system in the Energy sector. The SDN team identified the core attributes of a control system and produced an SDN flow controller that has the same core attributes enabling networks to be designed, configured and deployed that maximize the whitelisted, deny-bydefault and purpose built networks. This project researched, developed and commercially released technology that: Enables all field networks be to configured and monitored as if they are a single asset to be protected; Enables greatly improved and even precalculated response actions to reliability and cyber events; Supports pre-configured localized response actions tailored to provide resilience against failures and centralized response to cyber-attacks that improve network reliability and availability; Architecturally enables the right subject matter experts, who are usually the information technology and operational technology engineers, to be the ones centrally administering the technology and responding to events; Simplifies network configuration, improving deterministic Ethernet transport times, and providing instant visualization on where the communication circuits are and how all circuits are impacted when changes (e.g., configuration changes, failures or intrusions) happen, allowing operators to minimize downtime; and Improves the ability to identify deviations in network behavior resulting in detection and analysis of potential cyber intrusions and faster response times Results: This project has forever changed the way critical infrastructure networks are designed, secured, deployed and maintained. The cybersecurity and performance advantages achieved are significant, simply put traditional networking has been obsoleted while the team maintained Ethernet interoperability avoiding any legacy concerns. The team commercially released technology that accomplished all the cybersecurity goals outlined in the SOPO and completed it by executing the project management plan approved in the initial contract. The resulting Energy sector SDN flow controller model number is SEL-5056 and can be freely downloaded from the www.SELinc.com website. This technology not only improves the cybersecurity of control systems but has measured results that it improves the performance and reliability of the control system as well. This means the system owners can confidently apply it to their systems knowing that it will, “first do no harm” but actually improve the system as well. Success of the project is best measured by the sales and deployment of the technology. System owners in industrial, electric, defense, and oil and gas only months after commercial release have approved plans for deployment.« less

Method for quick thermal tolerancing of optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werschnik, J.; Uhlendorf, K.

2016-09-01

Optical systems for lithography (projection lens), inspection (micro-objectives) or laser material processing usually have tight specifications regarding focus and wave-front stability. The same is true regarding the field dependent properties. Especially projection lenses have tight specifications on field curvature, magnification and distortion. Unwanted heating either from internal or external sources lead to undesired changes of the above properties. In this work we show an elegant and fast method to analyze the thermal sensitivity using ZEMAX. The key point of this method is using the thermal changes of the lens data from the multi-configuration editor as starting point for a (standard) tolerance analysis. Knowing the sensitivity we can either define requirements on the environment or use it to systematically improve the thermal behavior of the lens. We demonstrate this method for a typical projection lens for which we optimized the thermal field curvature to a minimum.

A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

2011-12-01

Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used with existing or proposed operating rules to explore the range of potential climate impacts on lake levels, drought trigger frequency, hydropower generation, and low-flow statistics. Initial system implementation of the Climate Change DSS was focused in the State of Colorado working with water supply agencies in the Front Range to assess local water supply vulnerability to climate change. To facilitate national implementation, the system capitalizes on National Weather Service (NWS) watershed models currently used for operational river forecasting. These models are well calibrated and available for the entire country. The system has been extended to include the ACF and the Sacramento River basins because of the importance of the water resources in these basins. Plans are now being made to expand coverage to include the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. water supply area. The DSS is operational and publicly available (www.climatechangedss.com).

LANDSAT land cover analysis completed for CIRSS/San Bernardino County project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Likens, W.; Maw, K.; Sinnott, D. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The LANDSAT analysis carried out as part of Ames Research Center's San Bernardino County Project, one of four projects sponsored by NASA as part of the California Integrated Remote Sensing System (CIRSS) effort for generating and utilizing digital geographic data bases, is described. Topics explored include use of data-base modeling with spectral cluster data to improve LANDSAT data classification, and quantitative evaluation of several change techniques. Both 1976 and 1979 LANDSAT data were used in the project.

Climate Change Impacts to Hydro Power Reservoir Systems in British Columbia, Canada: Modelling, Validation and Projection of Historic and Future Streamflow and Snowpack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Berland, A. J.

2010-12-01

The British Columbia Hydro Electric Corporation (BC Hydro) has a mandate to provide clean, renewable and reliable sources of hydro-electric power into the future, hence managing those resources in the context of climate change will be an important component of reservoir operational planning in British Columbia. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (www.PacificClimate.org) has implemented the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model parameterized at 1/16th degree (~32 km2) to provide BC Hydro with future projections of changes to streamflow and snowpack to the 2050s. The headwaters of the Peace, Columbia, and Campbell River basins were selected for study; the Upper Peace River basin (101,000 km2) is a snowmelt-dominated watershed, and the Upper Columbia River Basin (104,000 km2) has a mixed snowmelt-glacier melt runoff regime, with glacier runoff contributing up to 15 to 20% of late summer discharge. The Upper Campbell River watershed (1,200 km2) has a mixed rainfall and snowmelt (hybrid) hydrologic regime. The model has been calibrated using historical streamflow observations and validated against these observations, as well as automated snow pillow measurements. Future streamflow changes are estimated based on eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 suite, downscaled using the Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, run under three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1; A1B is specifically reported on herein). Climate impacts by the 2050s in the three watersheds illustrate an increase in annual average temperature and precipitation ranging between +2.2°C to +2.8°C and +2% to +10% depending on basin, and an annual change in streamflow of -1% to +12% for the three watersheds. Changes are more profound on the seasonal time-scale and differ across basins. Summer streamflow in the Upper Campbell River watershed is projected to decline by -60%, where as the Upper Peace and Columbia systems are projected to decline by -25% and -22%, respectively. Streamflow is projected to increase during winter months for all basins, ranging from increases of +54% (Upper Campbell), +77% (Upper Peace) to +94% (Upper Columbia). These changes in streamflow illustrate a shift towards more rainfall dominated systems with lower snowpacks during the winter months, particularly in the Campbell system (shifting from 23% to 13% snow dominated by the 2050s), which is located at a relatively low elevation and proximal to the Pacific Ocean. Shifts in the distribution of water resources, and in particular snowpack reserves, may require BC Hydro to reconsider their operational planning framework for impacted systems.

Audit activity and quality of completed audit projects in primary care in Staffordshire.

PubMed Central

Chambers, R; Bowyer, S; Campbell, I

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To survey audit activity in primary care and determine which practice factors are associated with completed audit; to survey the quality of completed audit projects. DESIGN--From April 1992 to June 1993 a team from the medical audit advisory group visited all general practices; a research assistant visited each practice to study the best audit project. Data were collected in structured interviews. SETTING--Staffordshire, United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--All 189 general practices. MAIN MEASURES--Audit activity using Oxford classification system. Quality of best audit project by assessing choice of topic; participation of practice staff; setting of standards; methods of data collection and presentation of results; whether a plan to make changes resulted from the audit; and whether changes led to the set standards being achieved. RESULTS--Audit information was available from 169 practices (89%). 44(26%) practices had carried out at least one full audit; 40(24%) had not started audit. Mean scores with the Oxford classification system were significantly higher with the presence of a practice manager (2.7(95% confidence interval 2.4 to 2.9) v 1.2(0.7 to 1.8), p < 0.0001) and with computerisation (2.8(2.5 to 3.1) v 1.4 (0.9 to 2.0), p < 0.0001), organised notes (2.6(2.1 to 3.0) v 1.7(7.2 to 2.2), p = 0.03), being a training practice (3.5(3.2 to 3.8) v 2.1(1.8 to 2.4), p < 0.0001), and being a partnership (2.8(2.6 to 3.0) v 1.5(1.1 to 2.0), p < 0.0001). Standards had been set in 62 of the 71 projects reviewed. Data were collected prospectively in 36 projects and retrospectively in 35. 16 projects entailed taking samples from a study population and 55 from the whole population. 50 projects had a written summary. Performance was less than the standards set or expected in 56 projects. 62 practices made changes as a result of the audit. 35 of the 53 that had reviewed the changes found that the original standards had been reached. CONCLUSIONS--Evaluation of audit in primary care should include evaluation of the methods used, whether deficiencies were identified, and whether changes were implemented to resolve any problems found. PMID:10153426

Skills for a Changing World: National Perspectives and the Global Movement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Care, Esther; Kim, Helyn; Anderson, Kate; Gustafsson-Wright, Emily

2017-01-01

The Skills for a Changing World project presents evidence of a movement of education systems globally toward a more explicit focus on a broad range of skills that our 21st century society needs and demands. This movement can be seen in the vision and mission statements of education systems as well as through their curricula. Although clearly…

Becoming Informed Consumers: A National Survey of Parents' Experience with Respite Services. Guide Materials for Respite Care for Families with Members Who Are Disabled. Final Project Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knoll, James A.; Bedford, Sara

The project sought to determine the content and form of materials that would enable parents of children with disabilities to become informed critical consumers of respite services. Project activities included establishment and utilization of a national advisory panel; an indepth review of the literature on family supports, systems change, and…

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Operations and Future Development of the U.S. Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S. M.; Averyt, K.; Macknick, J.; Meldrum, J.; Sullivan, P.

2014-12-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate reliability concerns for the power sector through changes in water availability and air temperatures. The power sector is responsible for 41% of U.S. freshwater withdrawals, primarily for power plant cooling needs, and any changes in the water available for the power sector, given increasing competition among water users, could affect decisions about new power plant builds and reliable operations for existing generators. Similarly, increases in air temperatures can reduce power plant efficiencies, which in turn increases fuel consumption as well as water withdrawal and consumption rates. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water runoff projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data are applied to surface water available to generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water availability for the 134 electricity balancing regions in the ReEDS model. In addition, air temperature changes are considered for their impacts on electricity load, transmission capacity, and power plant efficiencies and water use rates. Mean climate projections have only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water access to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water access purchases and a greater share of water acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

The Changing Earth Science Network- Projects and Results from the First Call

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dransfeld, Steffen; Fernandez, Diego; Doron, Maeva; Martinez, Elodie; Shutler, Jamie; Papandrea, Enzo; Biggs, Juliet; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Palazzi, Elisa; Garcia-Comas, Maya; de Graaf, Martin; Schneising, Oliver; Pavon, Patricia Oliva

2010-12-01

To better understand the different processes and interactions that govern the earth system and to determine whether recent human-induced changes could ultimately de-stabilise its dynamics, both natural system variability and the consequences of human activities have to be observed and quantified. In this context, the European Space Agency published in 2006 "The Changing Earth: New Scientific Challenges for ESA's living Planet Programme" as the main driver of ESA's new EO science strategy. The document outlines 25 major scientific challenges covering all the different aspects of the Earth system, where EO technology and ESA missions may provide a key contribution. In this context, and responding to a request from ESAC (Earth Science Advisory Committee) to enhance the ESA scientific support towards the achievement of "The Challenges", the Agency has launched the Changing Earth Science Network as an important programmatic component of the new Support To Science Element (STSE) of the Earth Observation Envelope Programme (EOEP). In this paper we summarize the objectives of this initive and provide a review of the first projects that were selected in 2009 and are now generating their first results.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Navigating a Transdisciplinary Research Project with a Non-Traditional Academic Background: Climate Change, Soil Health and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basche, A.

2014-12-01

The Climate and Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agriculture Project (CSCAP) is a collaboration of 150+ team members spanning a range of scientific disciplinary backgrounds. The project goal is to produce collaborative research, education and extension aimed at mitigating and adapting Midwest cropping systems to climate variability and change. My PhD work in Agronomy and Sustainable Agriculture is a part of the CSCAP although my prior academic background was in applied climate science and biology, thus proposing a potential challenge to the new academic landscape. Further, graduate students within CSCAP are a part of a natural experiment in how the next generation of scientists operates in a transdisciplinary environment. As part of my leadership in the CSCAP, I helped to develop a "roadmap" document outlining the learning opportunities available to students. This document was meant to underscore the skills and experiences that will aid us in future collaborative research projects. Through these leadership experiences, I believe that the underpinning of any successful collaborative research project requires time: to develop relationships, earn trust and develop shared understandings and respect for different academic backgrounds.

Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Recreational Fishing in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Using a geographic information system, a spatially explicit modeling framework was developed consisting grid cells organized into 2,099 eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC-8) polygons for the coterminous United States. Projected temperature and precipitation changes associated...

The Advanced Linked Extended Reconnaissance & Targeting Technology Demonstration project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Mark

2008-04-01

The Advanced Linked Extended Reconnaissance & Targeting (ALERT) Technology Demonstration (TD) project is addressing many operational needs of the future Canadian Army's Surveillance and Reconnaissance forces. Using the surveillance system of the Coyote reconnaissance vehicle as an experimental platform, the ALERT TD project aims to significantly enhance situational awareness by fusing multi-sensor and tactical data, developing automated processes, and integrating beyond line-of-sight sensing. The project is exploiting important advances made in computer processing capability, displays technology, digital communications, and sensor technology since the design of the original surveillance system. As the major research area within the project, concepts are discussed for displaying and fusing multi-sensor and tactical data within an Enhanced Operator Control Station (EOCS). The sensor data can originate from the Coyote's own visible-band and IR cameras, laser rangefinder, and ground-surveillance radar, as well as from beyond line-of-sight systems such as mini-UAVs and unattended ground sensors. Video-rate image processing has been developed to assist the operator to detect poorly visible targets. As a second major area of research, automatic target cueing capabilities have been added to the system. These include scene change detection, automatic target detection and aided target recognition algorithms processing both IR and visible-band images to draw the operator's attention to possible targets. The merits of incorporating scene change detection algorithms are also discussed. In the area of multi-sensor data fusion, up to Joint Defence Labs level 2 has been demonstrated. The human factors engineering aspects of the user interface in this complex environment are presented, drawing upon multiple user group sessions with military surveillance system operators. The paper concludes with Lessons Learned from the project. The ALERT system has been used in a number of C4ISR field trials, most recently at Exercise Empire Challenge in China Lake CA, and at Trial Quest in Norway. Those exercises provided further opportunities to investigate operator interactions. The paper concludes with recommendations for future work in operator interface design.

Network, system, and status software enhancements for the autonomously managed electrical power system breadboard. Volume 1: Project summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckee, James W.

1990-01-01

This volume (1 of 4) gives a summary of the original AMPS software system configuration, points out some of the problem areas in the original software design that this project is to address, and in the appendix collects all the bimonthly status reports. The purpose of AMPS is to provide a self reliant system to control the generation and distribution of power in the space station. The software in the AMPS breadboard can be divided into three levels: the operating environment software, the protocol software, and the station specific software. This project deals only with the operating environment software and the protocol software. The present station specific software will not change except as necessary to conform to new data formats.

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are coupled in IAMs , and the need for a lexicon that is agreed upon by the IAM community.

Pipelining in a changing competitive environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.G.; Wishart, D.M.

1996-12-31

The changing competitive environment for the pipeline industry presents a broad spectrum of new challenges and opportunities: international cooperation; globalization of opportunities, organizations and competition; and integrated systems approach to system configuration, financing, contracting strategy, materials sourcing, and operations; cutting edge and emerging technologies; adherence to high standards of environmental protection; an emphasis on safety; innovative approaches to project financing; and advances in technology and programs to maintain the long term, cost effective integrity of operating pipeline systems. These challenges and opportunities are partially a result of the increasingly competitive nature of pipeline development and the public`s intolerance to incidentsmore » of pipeline failure. A creative systems approach to these challenges is often the key to the project moving ahead. This usually encompasses collaboration among users of the pipeline, pipeline owners and operators, international engineering and construction companies, equipment and materials suppliers, in-country engineers and constructors, international lending agencies and financial institutions.« less

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Impacts on Stream Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Qian; Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John

We apply an integrated hydrology-stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM-RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt-dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lowermore » reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub-basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change.« less

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences inmore » projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.« less

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

PubMed

Tomasek, Bradley J; Williams, Martin M; Davis, Adam S

2017-01-01

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

An evaluation of climate change effects in estuarine salinity patterns: Application to Ria de Aveiro shallow water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Catarina I. C.; Vaz, Nuno; Dias, João M.

2017-04-01

It is of global interest, for the definition of effective adaptation strategies, to make an assessment of climate change impacts in coastal environments. In this study, the salinity patterns adjustments and the correspondent Venice System zonations adaptations are evaluated through numerical modelling for Ria de Aveiro, a mesotidal shallow water lagoon located in the Portuguese coast, for the end of the 21st century in a climate change context. A reference (equivalent to present conditions) and three future scenarios are defined and simulated, both for wet and dry conditions. The future scenarios are designed with the following changes to the reference: scenario 1) projected mean sea level (MSL) rise; scenario 2) projected river flow discharges; and scenario 3) projections for both MSL and river flow discharges. The projections imposed are: a MSL rise of 0.42 m; a freshwater flow reduction of ∼22% for the wet season and a reduction of ∼87% for the dry season. Modelling results are analyzed for different tidal ranges. Results indicate: a) a salinity upstream intrusion and a generalized salinity increase for sea level rise scenario, with higher significance in middle-to-upper lagoon zones; b) a maximum salinity increase of ∼12 in scenario 3 and wet conditions for Espinheiro channel, the one with higher freshwater contribution; c) an upstream displacement of the saline fronts occurring in wet conditions for all future scenarios, with stronger expression for scenario 3, of ∼2 km in Espinheiro channel; and d) a landward progression of the saltier physical zones established in the Venice System scheme. The adaptation of the ecosystem to the upstream relocation of physical zones may be blocked by human settlements and other artificial barriers surrounding the estuarine environment.

An approach toward incorporation of global warming effects into Intensity-Duration-Frequency values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Easterling, D. R.

2017-12-01

Rising global temperatures from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will increase overall atmospheric water vapor concentrations. There is a high level of scientific confidence that this will increase the future intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, even in regions where overall precipitation may decrease. For control of runoff from extreme rainfall, infrastructure engineering utilizes design values of rainfall known as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) values. Use of the existing IDF values, which are based solely on historical climate records, is likely to lead to under-design of runoff control structures, and associated increased flood damages. However, future changes in IDF values are uncertain and probably regionally variable. Our paradigm is that changes in IDF values will result from changes in atmospheric capacity (water vapor concentrations) and opportunity (the number and intensity of heavy precipitation-producing storm systems). Relevant storm systems being investigated include extratropical cyclones and their associated fronts, tropical cyclones, and the North American Monsoon system. The overall approach involves developing IDF adjustment factors for changes in these components of the climate system. The adjustment factors have associated uncertainties, primarily from (1) uncertainties in the future pathway of greenhouse gas emissions and (2) variations among climate models in the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gas concentration changes. In addition to meteorological considerations, the lifetime of projects designed using IDF values is an essential consideration because the IDF values may change substantially during that time. The initial results of this project will be discussed.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.

2014-10-01

A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6-10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20-50% in A1B and positive 20-40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15-50% and 10-30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from -10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

Green roof soil system affected by soil structural changes: A project initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jelínková, Vladimíra; Dohnal, Michal; Šácha, Jan; Šebestová, Jana; Sněhota, Michal

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic soil systems and structures such as green roofs, permeable or grassed pavements comprise appreciable part of the urban watersheds and are considered to be beneficial regarding to numerous aspects (e.g. carbon dioxide cycle, microclimate, reducing solar absorbance and storm water). Expected performance of these systems is significantly affected by water and heat regimes that are primarily defined by technology and materials used for system construction, local climate condition, amount of precipitation, the orientation and type of the vegetation cover. The benefits and potencies of anthropogenic soil systems could be considerably threatened in case when exposed to structural changes of thin top soil layer in time. Extensive green roof together with experimental green roof segment was established and advanced automated monitoring system of micrometeorological variables was set-up at the experimental site of University Centre for Energy Efficient Buildings as an interdisciplinary research facility of the Czech Technical University in Prague. The key objectives of the project are (i) to characterize hydraulic and thermal properties of soil substrate studied, (ii) to establish seasonal dynamics of water and heat in selected soil systems from continuous monitoring of relevant variables, (iii) to detect structural changes with the use of X-ray Computed Tomography, (iv) to identify with the help of numerical modeling and acquired datasets how water and heat dynamics in anthropogenic soil systems are affected by soil structural changes. Achievements of the objectives will advance understanding of the anthropogenic soil systems behavior in conurbations with the temperate climate.

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic and non-linear interactions among transportation, land use, and socioeconomic systems. System dynamics (SD) provides a common framework for modeling the complex interactions among transportation and other related systems. This study uses a SD model to simulate the cascading impacts of a proposed light rail transit (LRT) system in central North Carolina, USA. The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) SD model incorporates relationships among the land use, transportation, and economy sectors to simulate the complex feedbacks that give rise to the travel behavior changes forecasted by the region’s transportation model. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of changes in travel behavior to the proposed LRT system and the assumptions that went into the transportation modeling, and compares those results to the impacts of an alternative fare-free transit system. SD models such as the D-O LRP SD model can complement transportation studies by providing valuable insight into the interdependent community systems that collectively contribute to travel behavior changes. Presented at the 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, MA, July 18th, 2017

NASA's Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houts, Michael G.; Mitchell, Doyce P.; Kim, Tony; Emrich, William J.; Hickman, Robert R.; Gerrish, Harold P.; Doughty, Glen; Belvin, Anthony; Clement, Steven; Borowski, Stanley K.;

An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information.

PubMed

Maguire, Martin C

2013-11-01

The EU EuroClim project developed a system to monitor and record climate change indicator data based on satellite observations of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic. It also contained projection data for temperature, rainfall and average wind speed for Europe. These were all stored as data sets in a GIS database for users to download. The process of gathering requirements for a user population including scientists, researchers, policy makers, educationalists and the general public is described. Using an iterative design methodology, a user survey was administered to obtain initial feedback on the system concept followed by panel sessions where users were presented with the system concept and a demonstrator to interact with it. The requirements of both specialist and non-specialist users is summarised together with strategies for the effective communication of geographic climate change information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lowe, J A; Gregory, J M

2005-06-15

Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.

[Development of an instrument for the assessment of demand and monitoring of the health management in a health insurance].

PubMed

Burnus, M; Benner, V; Becker, L; Müller, D; Stock, S

2014-06-01

To identify and follow up the health relevant effects of change-management-projects and to determine improvements in activities following this change a specific health-controlling instrument with benchmarking options has been developed. This instrument applies scientific quality standards and shows the organisational value in form of an index (BGM-Systemindex). It shows the correlation between the four indices management system, health-related actions, health and absence rate and allows a qualitative view of corporate health promotion on and its long term effects. The initiator for the project was an employee survey, which showed a need for action to improve job satisfaction. The survey was the reason that management initiated an integral change-management-project. The project showed many interfaces with the corporate health promotion (BGM), thus enabling consequent changes to be made and their effects to be evaluated. The aim of the project was to clearly increase employee satisfaction up to the next employee survey. Overall the project can be considered a success as the main aim of the project to increase the employees job satisfaction in the given period of time was clearly accomplished. The BGM-Systemindex also stood the test for comprehensive monitoring of the employees health. The project was able to prove that the health relevant parameters could be optimised and that the quality, acceptance and efficiency of the intervention methods had improved. It also showed a positive development of the early and long term health indicators. This is a positive contrast to available literature, which shows that an insufficient or incorrectly used change management results in a lower employee satisfaction. As a result it was decided to use the tool in future.

Vehicle expectations in air transportation for the year 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hearth, D. P.

1980-01-01

This paper is intended to provide an overview of the air transportation system for the year 2000 in terms of vehicle expectations. Emphasis is placed on civil air transportation with the time period approached from the standpoint of evolutionary changes for the near term and also with the assumption of more revolutionary changes for the far term. The view along the evolutionary path begins with a historical review of airline market growth and the impact that technologies have had on airplane designs. Projections of the life expectancy of existing, derivative, and new airplanes are examined in terms of their productivity and fuel efficiency in view of the present and projected fuel usage and availability. The factors influencing airline growth are outlined and some views on whether another new generation of subsonic airplanes are in the offing are given along with an assessment of the economic viability of an advanced commercial supersonic transport in terms of its higher speed, higher productivity, and higher fuel usage. With regard to revolutionary changes, major technology breakthroughs are assumed to occur at a specified date. As an example, the impact of a dramatic reduction in skin friction drag is examined in terms of its effect on the airplane configuration, its propulsion systems, it projected fuel usage, and the air transportation system in which it must operate.

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

PubMed

Alley, Richard B

2003-09-15

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Vulnerabilities of ecosystems across U.S. National Parks to biome shifts, wildfire changes, and invasive species due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, P.; Eigenbrod, F.; Early, R.; Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Williams, J. W.

2016-12-01

U.S. national parks conserve globally unique biodiversity. Yet, historical impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities threaten species and ecosystems across this system of protected areas. Spatial analyses of historical climate and downscaled future climate projections show climate trends across the system. Spatial analyses of vegetation and wildfire (using a dynamic global vegetation model), habitat fragmentation (using remote sensing-derived land cover), and invasive species introduction and establishment show patterns of future vulnerability across the 50 U.S. states and 412 U.S. national parks. Results reveal high historical and projected temperature increases and precipitation changes, projected increases of wildfire across western U.S. national parks, high vulnerability to biome shifts and habitat fragmentation of up to one-third of National Park System area, and high vulnerability to invasive species of one-ninth of National Park System area. Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, desert Southwest, and Laurentian Great Lakes are highly vulnerable to upslope and poleward shifts of the North America sequence of biomes: temperate shrubland - temperate broadleaf forest - temperate mixed forest - temperate conifer forest - subalpine and boreal forest - alpine and tundra. These areas include Grand Canyon, Mount Rainier, and Yosemite National Parks. The southwestern U.S., including Grand Canyon and Sequoia National Parks, is vulnerable to increases in wildfire. The eastern and midwestern U.S., including Great Smokey Mountains and Voyageurs National Parks, are highly vulnerable to invasive species. These results identify vulnerable areas and potential refugia to help prioritize areas for future natural resource management actions and biodiversity conservation in U.S. national parks.

Assessing the Impact of Planned Social Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Donald T.

2011-01-01

It is a special characteristic of all modern societies that people consciously decide on and plan projects designed to improve their social systems. It is their universal predicament that their projects do not always have their intended effects. It seems inevitable that in most countries this common set of problems, combined with the obvious…

Moving Forward on a National Strategy for Developing Essential Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Maurice; Taschereau, Suzanne

2014-01-01

This pan Canadian participatory action research project involved faculty and managers in twelve Canadian colleges and institutes, nine employers, and 1300 students and workers in examining exemplary practice in essential skills as a way of catalyzing system change. Multiple sources of data were used in the three year project and key findings…

The MDE Diploma: First International Postgraduate Specialization in Model-Driven Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cabot, Jordi; Tisi, Massimo

2011-01-01

Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) is changing the way we build, operate, and maintain our software-intensive systems. Several projects using MDE practices are reporting significant improvements in quality and performance but, to be able to handle these projects, software engineers need a set of technical and interpersonal skills that are currently…

Summary Evaluation of Career Education Project for Buffalo Public School System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buffalo Public Schools, NY.

Evaluation of the three-year career education project in 12 of the Buffalo, New York public schools focuses on changes in pupils' knowledge of occupational information and the clarity, consistency, and reality of vocational interests. An occupational knowledge pre/post-test and occupational interest questionnaire were administered to 359 fourth…

Chapter 7: Lessons, Conclusions, and Implications of the Saber-Tooth Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Phillip; Doutis, Panayiotis; Evans, Sharon A.

1999-01-01

Summarizes findings from the Saber-Tooth Project related to systemic change and student learning, concluding that vision is everything; workplace conditions must be addressed at multiple levels; strong relationships exist among planning, teaching, and assessment; and improvement in reform may occur due to the cessation of business as usual. This…

Fighting Fires in Early Intervention Supervision: Trading the Axe for Mr. Rogers's Slippers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexander, Laura; Gallen, Robert T.; Salazar, Ruby; Shahmoon-Shanok, Rebecca

2012-01-01

When Pennsylvania's Early Intervention system implemented an early intervention-reflective supervision project, modest expectations for change were anticipated, given the limited amount of time and funding for the project. In this article, one participant tells the story of her professional development, which enabled her to augment her skills as…

Linking Climate Change Education through the Integration of a Kite-Borne Remote Sensing System: Linking Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xie, Yichun; Henry, Andy; Bydlowski, David; Musial, Joseph

2014-01-01

A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn…

Climate change adaptation strategies for federal forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA: ecological, policy, and socio-economic perspectives

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Thomas W. Giesen; Frederick J. Swanson; Jerry F. Franklin; Denise Lach; K. Norman Johnson

2010-01-01

Conserving biological diversity in a changing climate poses major challenges for land managers and society. Effective adaptive strategies for dealing with climate change require a socioecological systems perspective. We highlight some of the projected ecological responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A and identify possible adaptive actions that...

Climate Change Impacts to North Pacific Pelagic Habitat Are Projected to Lower Carrying Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth-Jefcoats, P. A.; Polovina, J. J.; Drazen, J.

2016-02-01

We use output from a suite of CMIP5 earth system models to explore the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries over the 21st century. Ocean temperatures from both the historical and RCP 8.5 projections are integrated over the upper 200 m of the water column to characterize thermal habitat in the epipelagic realm. We find that across all models the projected temperature increases lead to a redistribution of thermal habitat: temperatures that currently represent the majority of North Pacific pelagic habitat are replaced by temperatures several degrees warmer. Additionally, all models project the emergence of new thermal habitat that exceeds present-day maximum temperatures. Spatially, present-day thermal habitat retreats northward and contracts eastward as warmer habitat in the southern and western North Pacific expands. In addition to these changes in thermal habitat, zooplankton densities are projected to decline across much of the North Pacific. Taken together, warming temperatures and declining zooplankton densities create the potential for mismatches in metabolic demand and supply through the 21st century. We find that carrying capacity for tropical tunas and other commercially valuable pelagic fish may be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The waters projected to see the greatest redistribution of thermal habitat and greatest declines in zooplankton densities are primarily those targeted by the Hawaii-based and international longline fleets. Fishery managers around the North Pacific will need to incorporate these impacts of climate change into future management strategies.

Solar Energy and Other Appropriate Technologies for Small Potable Water Systems in Puerto Rico

EPA Science Inventory

This Region 2 research demonstration project presentation studied the efficacy of sustainable solar-powered water delivery and monitoring systems to reduce the economic burden of operating and maintaining Non-PRASA drinking water systems and to reduce the impact of climate change...

Mathematical modeling of project management in logistics systems based on two-dimensional random vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glushkova, Yu O.; Gordashnukova, O. Yu; Pahomova, A. V.; Shatohina, S. P.; Filippov, D. V.

2018-05-01

The modern markets are characterized by fierce competition, constantly changing demand, increasing demands of consumers, shortening of the life cycle of goods and services in connection with scientific and technological progress. Therefore, for survival, modern logistic systems of industrial enterprises must be constantly improved. Modern economic literature is represented by a large volume of publications on various aspects of the studied issues. They consider the issues of project management in the logistics system that inevitably encounter with triple Limited. It initially describes the balance between project content, cost, and time. Later it was suggested to either replace the content with quality or add a fourth criterion. Therefore it is possible to name such limitation as triple or four-criteria limitation.

Precision monitoring of bridge deck curvature change during replacement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

This project was focused on development and deployment of a system for monitoring vertical : displacement in bridge decks and bridge spans. The system uses high precision wireless inclinometer : sensors to monitor inclinations at various points of a ...

How will climate change affect watershed mercury export in a representative Coastal Plain watershed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.; Conrads, P. A.; Feaster, T.; Davis, G. M.; Benedict, S. T.; Bradley, P. M.

2012-12-01

Future climate change is expected to drive variations in watershed hydrological processes and water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such shifts in climatic conditions will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern. We simulate the responses of watershed hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to a unified set of past and future climate change projections in a Coastal Plain basin using multiple watershed models. We use two statistically downscaled global precipitation and temperature models, ECHO, a hybrid of the ECHAM4 and HOPE-G models, and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) across two thirty-year simulations (1980 to 2010 and 2040 to 2070). We apply three watershed models to quantify and bracket potential changes in hydrologic and HgT fluxes, including the Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment Model for Hg (VELMA-Hg), the Grid Based Mercury Model (GBMM), and TOPLOAD, a water quality constituent model linked to TOPMODEL hydrological simulations. We estimate a decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change using the ECHO projections and an increase with the CCSM3 projections in the study watershed. Average monthly HgT fluxes increase using both climate change projections between in the late spring (March through May), when HgT concentrations and flow are high. Results suggest that hydrological transport associated with changes in precipitation and temperature is the primary mechanism driving HgT flux response to climate change. Our multiple model/multiple projection approach allows us to bracket the relative response of HgT fluxes to climate change, thereby illustrating the uncertainty associated with the projections. In addition, our approach allows us to examine potential variations in climate change-driven water and HgT export based on different conceptualizations of watershed HgT dynamics and the representative mathematical structures underpinning existing watershed Hg models.

Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the default LUMIP scenarios to illustrate the uncertainties in projected LULC as a result of difference in downscaling algorithms. Our results show that such uncertainties could propagate to other components in ACME and CESM and lead to significant differences in simulated water and biogeochemical cycles.

Investments on Pro-poor Development Projects on Goats: Ensuring Success for Improved Livelihoods*

PubMed Central

Devendra, C.

2013-01-01

The elements that determine the success of development projects on goats and the prerequisites for ensuring this are discussed in the context of the bewildering diversity of goat genetic resources, production systems, multifunctionality, and opportunities for responding to constraints for productivity enhancement. Key determinants for the success of pro-poor projects are the imperatives of realistic project design, resolution of priorities and positive impacts to increase investments and spur agricultural growth, and appropriate policy. Throughout the developing world, there exist 97% of the total world population of 921 million goats across all agro-ecological zones (AEZs), including 570 breeds and 64% share of the breeds. They occupy a very important biological and socio-economic niche in farming systems making significant multifunctional contributions especially to food, nutrition and financial security, stability of farm households, and survival of the poor in the rural areas. Definitions are given of successful and failed projects. The analyses highlighted in successful projects the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers and climate change. Climate change effects on goats are inevitable and are mediated through heat stress, type of AEZ, water availability, quantity and quality of the available feed resources and type of production system. Within the prevailing production systems, improved integrated tree crops - ruminant systems are underestimated and are an important pathway to enhance C sequestration. Key development strategies and opportunities for research and development (R and D) are enormous, and include inter alia defining a policy framework, resolution of priority constraints using systems perspectives and community-based participatory activities, application of yield-enhancing technologies, intensification, scaling up, and impacts. The priority for development concerns the rainfed areas with large concentrations of ruminants in which goats, with a capacity to cope with heat tolerance, can be the entry point for development. Networks and networking are very important for the diffusion of information and can add value to R and D. Well formulated projects with clear priority setting and participatory R and D ensure success and the realisation of food security, improved livelihoods and self-reliance in the future. PMID:25049700

Investments on Pro-poor Development Projects on Goats: Ensuring Success for Improved Livelihoods.

PubMed

Devendra, C

2013-01-01

The elements that determine the success of development projects on goats and the prerequisites for ensuring this are discussed in the context of the bewildering diversity of goat genetic resources, production systems, multifunctionality, and opportunities for responding to constraints for productivity enhancement. Key determinants for the success of pro-poor projects are the imperatives of realistic project design, resolution of priorities and positive impacts to increase investments and spur agricultural growth, and appropriate policy. Throughout the developing world, there exist 97% of the total world population of 921 million goats across all agro-ecological zones (AEZs), including 570 breeds and 64% share of the breeds. They occupy a very important biological and socio-economic niche in farming systems making significant multifunctional contributions especially to food, nutrition and financial security, stability of farm households, and survival of the poor in the rural areas. Definitions are given of successful and failed projects. The analyses highlighted in successful projects the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers and climate change. Climate change effects on goats are inevitable and are mediated through heat stress, type of AEZ, water availability, quantity and quality of the available feed resources and type of production system. Within the prevailing production systems, improved integrated tree crops - ruminant systems are underestimated and are an important pathway to enhance C sequestration. Key development strategies and opportunities for research and development (R and D) are enormous, and include inter alia defining a policy framework, resolution of priority constraints using systems perspectives and community-based participatory activities, application of yield-enhancing technologies, intensification, scaling up, and impacts. The priority for development concerns the rainfed areas with large concentrations of ruminants in which goats, with a capacity to cope with heat tolerance, can be the entry point for development. Networks and networking are very important for the diffusion of information and can add value to R and D. Well formulated projects with clear priority setting and participatory R and D ensure success and the realisation of food security, improved livelihoods and self-reliance in the future.

A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2014-01-01

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

Compulsory Project-Level Involvement and the Use of Program-Level Evaluations: Evaluating the Local Systemic Change for Teacher Enhancement Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Kelli; Weiss, Iris R.

2011-01-01

In 1995, the National Science Foundation (NSF) contracted with principal investigator Iris Weiss and an evaluation team at Horizon Research, Inc. (HRI) to conduct a national evaluation of the Local Systemic Change for Teacher Enhancement program (LSC). HRI conducted the core evaluation under a $6.25 million contract with NSF. This program…

Changing cultures: enhancing mental health and wellbeing of refugee young people through education and training.

PubMed

Bond, Lyndal; Giddens, Anne; Cosentino, Anne; Cook, Margaret; Hoban, Paul; Haynes, Ann; Scaffidi, Louise; Dimovski, Mary; Cini, Eileen; Glover, Sara

2007-01-01

Many refugee people and others entering Australia under the Humanitarian Program, have experienced extremely stressful and disrupted lives prior to arrival. A major difficulty experienced by a significant number of refugee young people is their lack of formal education before arrival. It directly affects their ability to start connecting to their new society and constructing a new life. The level of ease with which young people can move into the education and training system and begin to establish a meaningful career pathway has a huge impact on their successful settlement and stable mental health. This paper describes the Changing Cultures Project, a three-year project, which explored models of appropriate and accessible education and training for refugee and newly arrived young people that would enhance their mental health. The Changing Cultures Project was a partnership between the education, health and settlement sectors. This paper describes the program and system response to the health, settlement, education and vocational issues facing refugee young people using a mental health promotion framework and reflective practice. We discuss how the refugee youth programs met a broad range of needs as well as providing language, literacy and basic education to newly arrived young people. While working in an environment of changing policy and public opinion regarding refugee issues, the Project delivered successful outcomes at the program and organisational levels for refugee young people by addressing issues of program development and delivery, organisational development and capacity building and community development and evaluation.

The Lao PDR Inclusive Education Project 1993-2009: Reflections on the Impact of a National Project Aiming to Support the Inclusion of Disabled Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grimes, Peter; Sayarath, Khomvanh; Outhaithany, Sithath

2011-01-01

The Lao People's Democratic Republic Inclusive Education Project started in 1993 and during a 16-year period, ending in May 2009, it aimed to support the participation of all children in school, with a particular focus on disabled students. The main strategy to enable this involved working to change the education system through the introduction of…

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Altair Lander Life Support: Design Analysis Cycles 4 and 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Molly; Curley, Su; Rotter, Henry; Stambaugh, Imelda; Yagoda, Evan

2011-01-01

Life support systems are a critical part of human exploration beyond low earth orbit. NASA s Altair Lunar Lander team is pursuing efficient solutions to the technical challenges of human spaceflight. Life support design efforts up through Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) 4 focused on finding lightweight and reliable solutions for the Sortie and Outpost missions within the Constellation Program. In DAC-4 and later follow on work, changes were made to add functionality for new requirements accepted by the Altair project, and to update the design as knowledge about certain issues or hardware matured. In DAC-5, the Altair project began to consider mission architectures outside the Constellation baseline. Selecting the optimal life support system design is very sensitive to mission duration. When the mission goals and architecture change several trade studies must be conducted to determine the appropriate design. Finally, several areas of work developed through the Altair project may be applicable to other vehicle concepts for microgravity missions. Maturing the Altair life support system related analysis, design, and requirements can provide important information for developers of a wide range of other human vehicles.

Altair Lander Life Support: Design Analysis Cycles 4 and 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Molly; Curley, Su; Rotter, Henry; Yagoda, Evan

2010-01-01

Life support systems are a critical part of human exploration beyond low earth orbit. NASA s Altair Lunar Lander team is pursuing efficient solutions to the technical challenges of human spaceflight. Life support design efforts up through Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) 4 focused on finding lightweight and reliable solutions for the Sortie and Outpost missions within the Constellation Program. In DAC-4 and later follow on work, changes were made to add functionality for new requirements accepted by the Altair project, and to update the design as knowledge about certain issues or hardware matured. In DAC-5, the Altair project began to consider mission architectures outside the Constellation baseline. Selecting the optimal life support system design is very sensitive to mission duration. When the mission goals and architecture change several trade studies must be conducted to determine the appropriate design. Finally, several areas of work developed through the Altair project may be applicable to other vehicle concepts for microgravity missions. Maturing the Altair life support system related analysis, design, and requirements can provide important information for developers of a wide range of other human vehicles.

Design, implementation and migration of security systems as an extreme project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scharmer, Carol; Trujillo, David

2010-08-01

Decision Trees, algorithms, software code, risk management, reports, plans, drawings, change control, presentations, and analysis - all useful tools and efforts but time consuming, resource intensive, and potentially costly for projects that have absolute schedule and budget constraints. What are necessary and prudent efforts when a customer calls with a major security problem that needs to be fixed with a proven, off-the-approval-list, multi-layered integrated system with high visibility and limited funding and expires at the end of the Fiscal Year? Whether driven by budget cycles, safety, or by management decree, many such projects begin with generic scopes and funding allocatedmore » based on a rapid management 'guestimate.' Then a Project Manager (PM) is assigned a project with a predefined and potentially limited scope, compressed schedule, and potentially insufficient funding. The PM is tasked to rapidly and cost effectively coordinate a requirements-based design, implementation, test, and turnover of a fully operational system to the customer, all while the customer is operating and maintaining an existing security system. Many project management manuals call this an impossible project that should not be attempted. However, security is serious business and the reality is that rapid deployment of proven systems via an 'Extreme Project' is sometimes necessary. Extreme Projects can be wildly successful but require a dedicated team of security professionals lead by an experienced project manager using a highly-tailored and agile project management process with management support at all levels, all combined with significant interface with the customer. This paper does not advocate such projects or condone eliminating the valuable analysis and project management techniques. Indeed, having worked on a well-planned project provides the basis for experienced team members to complete Extreme Projects. This paper does, however, provide insight into what it takes for projects to be successfully implemented and accepted when completed under extreme conditions.« less

Design implementation and migration of security systems as an extreme project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scharmer, Carol

2010-10-01

Decision Trees, algorithms, software code, risk management, reports, plans, drawings, change control, presentations, and analysis - all useful tools and efforts but time consuming, resource intensive, and potentially costly for projects that have absolute schedule and budget constraints. What are necessary and prudent efforts when a customer calls with a major security problem that needs to be fixed with a proven, off-the-approval-list, multi-layered integrated system with high visibility and limited funding and expires at the end of the Fiscal Year? Whether driven by budget cycles, safety, or by management decree, many such projects begin with generic scopes and funding allocatedmore » based on a rapid management 'guestimate.' Then a Project Manager (PM) is assigned a project with a predefined and potentially limited scope, compressed schedule, and potentially insufficient funding. The PM is tasked to rapidly and cost effectively coordinate a requirements-based design, implementation, test, and turnover of a fully operational system to the customer, all while the customer is operating and maintaining an existing security system. Many project management manuals call this an impossible project that should not be attempted. However, security is serious business and the reality is that rapid deployment of proven systems via an 'Extreme Project' is sometimes necessary. Extreme Projects can be wildly successful but require a dedicated team of security professionals lead by an experienced project manager using a highly-tailored and agile project management process with management support at all levels, all combined with significant interface with the customer. This paper does not advocate such projects or condone eliminating the valuable analysis and project management techniques. Indeed, having worked on a well-planned project provides the basis for experienced team members to complete Extreme Projects. This paper does, however, provide insight into what it takes for projects to be successfully implemented and accepted when completed under extreme conditions.« less

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping Water Resources, Allocation and Consumption in the Mills River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodes, J.; Jeuland, M. A.; Barros, A. P.

2014-12-01

Mountain basins and the headwaters of river basins along the foothills of major mountain ranges are undergoing rapid environmental change due to urban development, land acquisition by investors, population increase, and climate change. Classical water infrastructure in these regions is primarily designed to meet human water demand associated with agriculture, tourism, and economic development. Often overlooked and ignored is the fundamental interdependence of human water demand, ecosystem water demand, water rights and allocation, and water supply. A truly sustainable system for water resources takes into account ecosystem demand along with human infrastructure and economic demand, as well as the feedbacks that exist between them. Allocation policies need to take into account basin resilience that is the amount of stress the system can handle under varying future scenarios. Changes in stress on the system can be anthropogenic in the form of population increase, land use change, economic development, or may be natural in the form of climate change and decrease in water supply due to changes in precipitation. Mapping the water rights, supply, and demands within the basin can help determine the resiliency and sustainability of the basin. Here, we present a coupled natural human system project based in the French Broad River Basin, in the Southern Appalachians. In the first phase of the project, we are developing and implementing a coupled hydro-economics modeling framework in the Mills River Basin (MRB), a tributary of the French Broad. The Mills River Basin was selected as the core basin for implementing a sustainable system of water allocation that is adaptive and reflects the interdependence of water dependent sectors. The headwaters of the Mills River are in the foothills of the Appalachians, and are currently under substantial land use land cover (LULC) change pressure for agricultural purposes. In this regard, the MRB is representative of similar headwater basins in regions of complex terrain undergoing similar pressures such as the Andes and Himalayas. First results of the project including a quantitative organigram mapping water availability, water consumption, and the relationships among water stakeholders within the basin will be presented.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

Overview of NASA's Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephan, Ryan A.

2011-01-01

The now-cancelled Constellation Program included the Orion, Altair, and Lunar Surface Systems project offices. The first two elements, Orion and Altair, were planned to be manned space vehicles while the third element was much more diverse and included several sub-elements. Among other things, these sub-elements were Rovers and a Lunar Habitat. The planned missions involving these systems and vehicles included several risks and design challenges. Due to the unique thermal operating environment, many of these risks and challenges were associated with the vehicles thermal control system. NASA s Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) consisted of various technology development projects. The project chartered with mitigating the aforementioned thermal risks and design challenges was the Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project. These risks and design challenges were being addressed through a rigorous technology development process that was planned to culminate with an integrated thermal control system test. Although the technologies being developed were originally aimed towards mitigating specific Constellation risks, the technology development process is being continued within a new program. This continued effort is justified by the fact that many of the technologies are generically applicable to future spacecraft thermal control systems. The current paper summarizes the development efforts being performed by the technology development project. The development efforts involve heat acquisition and heat rejection hardware including radiators, heat exchangers, and evaporators. The project has also been developing advanced phase change material heat sinks and performing a material compatibility assessment for a promising thermal control system working fluid. The to-date progress and lessons-learned from these development efforts will be discussed throughout the paper.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

PubMed

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of remote sensing for land use policy formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The overall objectives and strategies of the Center for Remote Sensing remain to provide a center for excellence for multidisciplinary scientific expertise to address land-related global habitability and earth observing systems scientific issues. Specific research projects that were underway during the final contract period include: digital classification of coniferous forest types in Michigan's northern lower peninsula; a physiographic ecosystem approach to remote classification and mapping; land surface change detection and inventory; analysis of radiant temperature data; and development of methodologies to assess possible impacts of man's changes of land surface on meteorological parameters. Significant progress in each of the five project areas has occurred. Summaries on each of the projects are provided.

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Drazen, Jeffrey C

2017-03-01

Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2-5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries' economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate is changing, everything is flowing, stationarity is immortal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Montanari, Alberto

2015-04-01

There is no doubt that climate is changing -- and ever has been. The environment is also changing and in the last decades, as a result of demographic change and technological advancement, environmental change has been accelerating. These affect also the hydrological processes, whose changes in connection with rapidly changing human systems have been the focus of the new scientific decade 2013-2022 of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, entitled "Panta Rhei - Everything Flows". In view of the changing systems, it has recently suggested that, when dealing with water management and hydrological extremes, stationarity is no longer a proper assumption. Hence, it was proposed that hydrological processes should be treated as nonstationary. Two main reasons contributed to this perception. First, the climate models project a future hydroclimate that will be different from the current one. Second, as streamflow record become longer, they indicate the presence of upward or downward trends. However, till now hydroclimatic projections made in the recent past have not been verified. At the same time, evidence from quite longer records, instrumental or proxy, suggest that local trends are omnipresent but not monotonic; rather at some time upward trends turn to downward ones and vice versa. These observations suggest that improvident dismiss of stationarity and adoption of nonstationary descriptions based either on climate model outputs or observed trends may entail risks. The risks stem from the facts that the future can be different from what was deterministically projected, that deterministic projections are associated with an illusion of decreased uncertainty, as well as that nonstationary models fitted on observed data may have lower predictive capacity than simpler stationary ones. In most of the cases, what is actually needed is to revisit the concept of stationarity and try to apply it carefully, making it consistent with the presence of local trends, possibly incorporating information from deterministic predictions, whenever these prove to be reliable, and estimating the total predictive uncertainty.

Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.

2013-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Véliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-01-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.

Enlightenment from ancient Chinese urban and rural stormwater management practices.

PubMed

Wu, Che; Qiao, Mengxi; Wang, Sisi

2013-01-01

Hundreds of years ago, the ancient Chinese implemented several outstanding projects to cope with the changing climate and violent floods. Some of these projects are still in use today. These projects evolved from the experience and knowledge accumulated through the long coexistence of people with nature. The concepts behind these ancient stormwater management practices, such as low-impact development and sustainable drainage systems, are similar to the technology applied in modern stormwater management. This paper presents the cases of the Hani Terrace in Yunnan and the Fushou drainage system of Ganzhou in Jiangxi. The ancient Chinese knowledge behind these cases is seen in the design concepts and the features of these projects. These features help us to understand better their applications in the contemporary environment. In today's more complex environment, integrating traditional and advanced philosophy with modern technologies is extremely useful in building urban and rural stormwater management systems in China.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

How to Begin a Quality Improvement Project.

PubMed

Silver, Samuel A; Harel, Ziv; McQuillan, Rory; Weizman, Adam V; Thomas, Alison; Chertow, Glenn M; Nesrallah, Gihad; Bell, Chaim M; Chan, Christopher T

2016-05-06

Quality improvement involves a combined effort among health care staff and stakeholders to diagnose and treat problems in the health care system. However, health care professionals often lack training in quality improvement methods, which makes it challenging to participate in improvement efforts. This article familiarizes health care professionals with how to begin a quality improvement project. The initial steps involve forming an improvement team that possesses expertise in the quality of care problem, leadership, and change management. Stakeholder mapping and analysis are useful tools at this stage, and these are reviewed to help identify individuals who might have a vested interest in the project. Physician engagement is a particularly important component of project success, and the knowledge that patients/caregivers can offer as members of a quality improvement team should not be overlooked. After a team is formed, an improvement framework helps to organize the scientific process of system change. Common quality improvement frameworks include Six Sigma, Lean, and the Model for Improvement. These models are contrasted, with a focus on the Model for Improvement, because it is widely used and applicable to a variety of quality of care problems without advanced training. It involves three steps: setting aims to focus improvement, choosing a balanced set of measures to determine if improvement occurs, and testing new ideas to change the current process. These new ideas are evaluated using Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, where knowledge is gained by testing changes and reflecting on their effect. To show the real world utility of the quality improvement methods discussed, they are applied to a hypothetical quality improvement initiative that aims to promote home dialysis (home hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis). This provides an example that kidney health care professionals can use to begin their own quality improvement projects. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

How to Begin a Quality Improvement Project

PubMed Central

Harel, Ziv; McQuillan, Rory; Weizman, Adam V.; Thomas, Alison; Chertow, Glenn M.; Nesrallah, Gihad; Bell, Chaim M.; Chan, Christopher T.

2016-01-01

Quality improvement involves a combined effort among health care staff and stakeholders to diagnose and treat problems in the health care system. However, health care professionals often lack training in quality improvement methods, which makes it challenging to participate in improvement efforts. This article familiarizes health care professionals with how to begin a quality improvement project. The initial steps involve forming an improvement team that possesses expertise in the quality of care problem, leadership, and change management. Stakeholder mapping and analysis are useful tools at this stage, and these are reviewed to help identify individuals who might have a vested interest in the project. Physician engagement is a particularly important component of project success, and the knowledge that patients/caregivers can offer as members of a quality improvement team should not be overlooked. After a team is formed, an improvement framework helps to organize the scientific process of system change. Common quality improvement frameworks include Six Sigma, Lean, and the Model for Improvement. These models are contrasted, with a focus on the Model for Improvement, because it is widely used and applicable to a variety of quality of care problems without advanced training. It involves three steps: setting aims to focus improvement, choosing a balanced set of measures to determine if improvement occurs, and testing new ideas to change the current process. These new ideas are evaluated using Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, where knowledge is gained by testing changes and reflecting on their effect. To show the real world utility of the quality improvement methods discussed, they are applied to a hypothetical quality improvement initiative that aims to promote home dialysis (home hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis). This provides an example that kidney health care professionals can use to begin their own quality improvement projects. PMID:27016497

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslowski, Wieslaw

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate throughmore » polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.« less

Impacts of land use and climate change on carbon dynamics in south-central Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shu-Guang; Kaire, M.; Wood, Eric C.; Diallo, O.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2004-01-01

Total carbon stock in vegetation and soils was reduced 37% in south-central Senegal from 1900 to 2000. The decreasing trend will continue during the 21st century unless forest clearing is stopped, selective logging dramatically reduced, and climate change, if any, relatively small. Developing a sustainable fuelwood and charcoal production system could be the most feasible and significant carbon sequestration project in the region. If future climate changes dramatically as some models have predicted, cropland productivity will drop more than 65% around 2100, posing a serious threat to food security and the efficiency of carbon sequestration projects.

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Technical and Economic Assessment of the Implementation of Measures for Reducing Energy Losses in Distribution Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguila, Alexander; Wilson, Jorge

2017-07-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess a group of measures of electrical improvements in distribution systems, starting from the complementation of technical and economic criteria. In order to solve the problem of energy losses in distribution systems, technical and economic analysis was performed based on a mathematical model to establish a direct relationship between the energy saved by way of minimized losses and the costs of implementing the proposed measures. This paper aims at analysing the feasibility of reducing energy losses in distribution systems, by changing existing network conductors by larger crosssection conductors and distribution voltage change at higher levels. The impact of this methodology provides a highly efficient mathematical tool for analysing the feasibility of implementing improvement projects based on their costs which is a very useful tool for the distribution companies that will serve as a starting point to the analysis for this type of projects in distribution systems.

High Resolution Hydro-climatological Projections for Western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erler, Andre Richard

Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources and hydro-climatic extremes represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here an analysis of hydro-climatic changes in western Canada is presented, with specific focus on the Fraser and Athabasca River basins and on changes in hydro-climatic extremes. The analysis is based on a suite of simulations designed to characterize internal variability, as well as model uncertainty. A small ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations was employed to generate global climate projections, which were downscaled to 10 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.4.1) with several sets of physical parameterizations. Downscaling was performed for a historical validation period and a mid- and end-21st-century projection period, using the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Daily station observations and monthly gridded datasets were used for validation. Changes in hydro-climatic extremes are characterized using Extreme Value Analysis. A novel method of aggregating data from climatologically similar stations was employed to increase the statistical power of the analysis. Changes in mean and extreme precipitation are found to differ strongly between seasons and regions, but (relative) changes in extremes generally follow changes in the (seasonal) mean. At the end of the 21st century, precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase by 30% at the coast in fall and land-inwards in winter, while the projected increase in summer precipitation is smaller and changes in extremes are often not statistically significant. Reasons for the differences between seasons, the role of precipitation recycling in atmospheric water transport, and the sensitivity to physics parameterizations are discussed. Major changes are projected for the Fraser River basin, including earlier snowmelt and a 50% reduction in peak runoff. Combined with higher evapotranspiration, a significant increase in late summer drought risk is likely, but increasing fall precipitation might also increase the risk of moderate flooding. In the Athabasca River basin, increasing winter precipitation and snowmelt is balanced by increasing evapotranspiration in summer and no significant change in flood or drought risk is projected.

Green Turning Brown - Domain Engineering for Social and Health Services in Finland.

PubMed

Suomi, Reima; Nykänen, Pirkko; Vepsäläinen, Tapio; Hiltunen, Riina

2017-01-01

Being able to design information systems to an untouched domain, without the burden of existing information systems, especially legacy systems, is often seen as a dream of most information system professionals. Uncharted domains are anyway scarce, and often such greenfield projects turn into brownfield projects, also to projects where existing structures severely constrain the development of new systems. In this article we discuss the concepts of greenfield and brownfield domain engineering and software development, and reflect their possible messages to the re-engineering of the Finnish health- and social care ecosystem currently under way. In our fieldwork we could identify a lot of need and wish for greenfield domain engineering in the Finnish health and social services delivery. As well we found a lot of brownfield elements inhibiting change. Our proposal for the future is a ecosystem approach, where new and established elements could live together in a self-governed balance.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Computer Integrated Manufacturing: Physical Modelling Systems Design. A Personal View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Richard

A computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) Physical Modeling Systems Design project was undertaken in a time of rapid change in the industrial, business, technological, training, and educational areas in Australia. A specification of a manufacturing physical modeling system was drawn up. Physical modeling provides a flexibility and configurability…

Climate Change Adaptation Support for Transportation Practitioners: 2013 Volpe Center Innovation Challenge Project.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-30

The nature of the U.S. transportation system requires that actions to adapt to climate change impacts occur primarily at the State and local levels. Federal agencies support State, regional, and local agencies and they work hard to provide frameworks...

Projected 2050 Model Simulations for the Chesapeake Bay Program

EPA Science Inventory

The Chesapeake Bay Program as has been tasked with assessing how changes in climate systems are expected to alter key variables and processes within the Watershed in concurrence with land use changes. EPA’s Office of Research and Development will be conducting historic and...

Impact of Redevelopment Projects on Waste Water Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Prashant; Rahate, Sarvesh

2018-05-01

In the last few decades there has been a tremendous increase in urban population globally. Metropolitan cities in India are experiencing rapid change in their population due to migration from rural to urban areas. Due to limited land Mumbai city is experiencing vertical growth in the form of redevelopment projects, signifying a change in population density. Wastewater collection systems greatly contribute to the cost of the overall municipal sewerage system. Present study is an attempt to understand the impact of the redevelopment activities on the wastewater infrastructure. Existing sewerage network of an urban area in Central Mumbai was redesigned and analysed for four different planning scenarios with Bentley's SewerGEM. Results have shown significant change in diameters of the conduits within the sewer network, thus making it inefficient by 13, 19, 31 and 42% with each changing scenario. The results and analysis derived from the study are significant with respect to the urban town planners, developing solutions in alleviating the rising problem of sewer overflows and the economic impact being caused.

Deploying Six Sigma in a health care system as a work in progress.

PubMed

Christianson, Jon B; Warrick, Louise H; Howard, Richard; Vollum, John

2005-11-01

An integrated health care system deployed Six Sigma in four clinical projects. The selected projects targeted Medicare profitability, emergency department cycle time reduction, clinic patient preparation, and medication safety. CROSS-PROJECT ANALYSIS: The six-month start-up period yielded several lessons. For example, the selection and sequence for implementing strategic performance improvement (PI) projects, and the decision to use Six Sigma methods, should be guided by an overall system of project portfolio management. Fairview Health Services (FHS) had begun with a partial deployment with the intent of using the experience to inform subsequent full deployment. Yet even before completing analyses of project outcomes, FHS decided to proceed with full deployment. Leaders developed strategic and communication plans, allocated resources, and provided for further training. In 2005, three years after the initial implementation period, Six Sigma implementation has continued. A systemwide method for setting priorities for PI projects is in place, supported by a Web-based system for managing, tracking, monitoring, and communicating results. Cultural change is a challenge in any environment where staff is rooted in a single PI methodology and is skeptical about the credibility of Six Sigma because of its tie to manufacturing. Health care organizations will need to find better ways to engage physicians, especially community physicians whose patients and clinical practices could be affected by Six Sigma projects.

Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walk, Steven Robert

2011-04-01

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.

Using simple chaotic models to interpret climate under climate change: Implications for probabilistic climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daron, Joseph

2010-05-01

Exploring the reliability of model based projections is an important pre-cursor to evaluating their societal relevance. In order to better inform decisions concerning adaptation (and mitigation) to climate change, we must investigate whether or not our models are capable of replicating the dynamic nature of the climate system. Whilst uncertainty is inherent within climate prediction, establishing and communicating what is plausible as opposed to what is likely is the first step to ensuring that climate sensitive systems are robust to climate change. Climate prediction centers are moving towards probabilistic projections of climate change at regional and local scales (Murphy et al., 2009). It is therefore important to understand what a probabilistic forecast means for a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system that is subject to changing forcings. It is in this context that we present the results of experiments using simple models that can be considered analogous to the more complex climate system, namely the Lorenz 1963 and Lorenz 1984 models (Lorenz, 1963; Lorenz, 1984). Whilst the search for a low-dimensional climate attractor remains illusive (Fraedrich, 1986; Sahay and Sreenivasan, 1996) the characterization of the climate system in such terms can be useful for conceptual and computational simplicity. Recognising that a change in climate is manifest in a change in the distribution of a particular climate variable (Stainforth et al., 2007), we first establish the equilibrium distributions of the Lorenz systems for certain parameter settings. Allowing the parameters to vary in time, we investigate the dependency of such distributions to initial conditions and discuss the implications for climate prediction. We argue that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction. References: Fraedrich, K. Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci, 43, 419-432, 1986. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963. Lorenz, E. N. Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110, 1984. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, G. J. Jenkins, B. B. B. Booth, C. C. Brown, R. T. Clark, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, E. J. Kendon, R. A. Betts, S. J. Brown, P. Boorman, T. P. Howard, K. A. Humphrey, M. P. McCarthy, R. E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R. A. Wood. Uk climate projections science report: Climate change projections. 2009. Sahay, A. and K. R. Sreenivasan. The search for a low-dimensional characterization of a local climate system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 354, 1715-1750, 1996. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.

Global Positioning Systems for Personal Travel Surveys - Lexington Area Travel Data Collection Test: Appendixes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-15

Personal travel and how it changes is of continuing concern to transportation : planners and policy makers. This project, Global Positioning Systems for : Personal Travel Surveys, would combine self-reported information with GPS : recorded informatio...

Procurement of a more efficient railroad system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detmold, P.J.

An analysis of how new technology penetrates the railroad system and who initiates the changes suggests ways for improving the procedures. The author identifies a six-step process in transport development which includes invention, innovation, information dissemination, and persuasion. He concludes that poor economic justification and the lack of capital explain the low rate of equipment replacement. The nature of the market and the need for standardized specification appear to influence procurement changes, but both suppliers and transport operators must be convinced of the need for change. The Advanced Train Control Systems Project illustrates how the initiation process works.

[Individuals and changes in health organizations: a psychosociological approach].

PubMed

Azevedo, Creuza da Silva; Braga Neto, Francisco Campos; Sá, Marilene de Castilho

2002-01-01

The Brazilian health sector has undergone a severe crisis, affecting the case-resolving capacity, efficiency and governability of the health system as a whole and health organizations in particular. Although innovative management systems and tools have been encouraged, such innovations are limited in their ability to spawn organizational change, especially with regard to the challenge of enabling individual adherence to institutional projects and relations involving individuals and organizations. This paper focuses on the French psychosociological approach for analyzing and intervening in organizations, one of whose main thinkers is Eugène Enriquez. In its view of contemporary organizations, this approach focuses on the conflict between reproduction and creation as the main problem to be solved by management processes. While an organization is essentially seen as a place of order and repetition, organizational change implies the challenge of bringing creative individuals into the organization's project, avoiding the trap of controlling their minds and behavior.

CyberSecurity Monitoring Tools and Projects: A Compendium of Commercial and Government Tools and Government Research Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-08-01

identify changes to the risk levels of business network functions based on proposed modifications. Expert can model networks as well (see special...network from departmental systems to enterprise-wide environments. ACX is scaled with the use of a Policy Model Database(PMDB). The PMDB is a management...This Entry February 8, 2000 Description BlackICE Defender is a host-based intrusion detector designed for use on home or small business systems. It

Sustainable Hydro Assessment and Groundwater Recharge Projects (SHARP) in Germany - Water Balance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemand, C.; Kuhn, K.; Schwarze, R.

2010-12-01

SHARP is a European INTERREG IVc Program. It focuses on the exchange of innovative technologies to protect groundwater resources for future generations by considering the climate change and the different geological and geographical conditions. Regions involved are Austria, United Kingdom, Poland, Italy, Macedonia, Malta, Greece and Germany. They will exchange practical know-how and also determine know-how demands concerning SHARP’s key contents: general groundwater management tools, artificial groundwater recharge technologies, groundwater monitoring systems, strategic use of groundwater resources for drinking water, irrigation and industry, techniques to save water quality and quantity, drinking water safety plans, risk management tools and water balance models. SHARP Outputs & results will influence the regional policy in the frame of sustainable groundwater management to save and improve the quality and quantity of groundwater reservoirs for future generations. The main focus of the Saxon State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Landscape in this project is the enhancement and purposive use of water balance models. Already since 1992 scientists compare different existing water balance models on different scales and coupled with groundwater models. For example in the KLIWEP (Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change Projections on Water and Matter Balance for the Catchment of River Parthe in Saxony) project the coupled model WaSiM-ETH - PCGEOFIM® has been used to study the impact of climate change on water balance and water supplies. The project KliWES (Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change Projections on Water and Matter Balance for Catchment Areas in Saxony) still running, comprises studies of fundamental effects of climate change on catchments in Saxony. Project objective is to assess Saxon catchments according to the vulnerability of their water resources towards climate change projections in order to derive region-specific recommendations for management actions. The model comparisons within reference areas showed significant differences in outcome. The values of water balance components calculated with different models partially fluctuate by a multiple of their value. The SHARP project was prepared in several previous projects that were testing suitable water balance models and is now able to assist the knowledge transfer.

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kao, Shih -Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease inmore » annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.« less

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

DOE PAGES

Kao, Shih -Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2014-12-18

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease inmore » annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.« less

Identifying misbehaving models using baseline climate variance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2011-06-01

The majority of projections made using general circulation models (GCMs) are conducted to help tease out the effects on a region, or on the climate system as a whole, of changing climate dynamics. Sun et al., however, used model runs from 20 different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs to try to understand a different aspect of climate projections: how bias correction, model selection, and other statistical techniques might affect the estimated outcomes. As a case study, the authors focused on predicting the potential change in precipitation for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a 1-million- square- kilometer area in southeastern Australia that suffered a recent decade of drought that left many wondering about the potential impacts of climate change on this important agricultural region. The authors first compared the precipitation predictions made by the models with 107 years of observations, and they then made bias corrections to adjust the model projections to have the same statistical properties as the observations. They found that while the spread of the projected values was reduced, the average precipitation projection for the end of the 21st century barely changed. Further, the authors determined that interannual variations in precipitation for the MDB could be explained by random chance, where the precipitation in a given year was independent of that in previous years.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Treesearch

Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

Land cover change map comparisons using open source web mapping technologies

Treesearch

Erik Lindblom; Ian Housman; Tony Guay; Mark Finco; Kevin Megown

2015-01-01

The USDA Forest Service is evaluating the status of current landscape change maps and assessing gaps in their information content. These activities have been occurring under the auspices of the Landscape Change Monitoring System (LCMS) project, which is a joint effort between USFS Research, USFS Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC), USGS Earth Resources...

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Curricular Reform: Systems Modeling and Sustainability in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Vermont

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, D. M.; Hayden, N. J.; Dewoolkar, M.; Neumann, M.; Lathem, S.

2009-12-01

Researchers at the University of Vermont were awarded a NSF-sponsored Department Level Reform (DLR) grant to incorporate a systems approach to engineering problem solving within the civil and environmental engineering programs. A systems approach challenges students to consider the environmental, social, and economic aspects within engineering solutions. Likewise, sustainability requires a holistic approach to problem solving that includes economic, social and environmental factors. Our reform has taken a multi-pronged approach in two main areas that include implementing: a) a sequence of three systems courses related to environmental and transportation systems that introduce systems thinking, sustainability, and systems analysis and modeling; and b) service-learning (SL) projects as a means of practicing the systems approach. Our SL projects are good examples of inquiry-based learning that allow students to emphasize research and learning in areas of most interest to them. The SL projects address real-world open-ended problems. Activities that enhance IT and soft skills for students are incorporated throughout the curricula. Likewise, sustainability has been a central piece of the reform. We present examples of sustainability in the SL and modeling projects within the systems courses (e.g., students have used STELLA™ systems modeling software to address the impact of different carbon sequestration strategies on global climate change). Sustainability in SL projects include mentoring home schooled children in biomimicry projects, developing ECHO exhibits and the design of green roofs, bioretention ponds and porous pavement solutions. Assessment includes formative and summative methods involving student surveys and focus groups, faculty interviews and observations, and evaluation of student work.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Nutrient Loading in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed in Southern Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osidele, O.; Sun, A.; Green, R.

2011-12-01

Based on results of the Second National Climate Assessment reported in 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program projects temperatures in southern Texas will increase 5 to 8° F by the end of the 21st century, with larger changes occurring under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions. Temperature increases in summer are projected to be larger than in winter. Although drier conditions are expected in the region, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall events, and associated storm surges are projected to occur more frequently because of the likely increase in intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The range of possible responses to climate change is attributable to a combination of characteristics at global, regional, and local scales. The risk of flooding and catastrophic infrastructure damage due to global climate phenomena has been incorporated into local climate adaptation plans for many low-lying areas and communities in the Gulf Coast region of southern Texas. However, because this region is dominated by irrigated agriculture and the population is projected to double by 2050, it is important to examine how climate change will affect water resources and environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential hydrologic and water quality impacts of projected climate change, land use change, and population change scenarios in the headwaters of the Arroyo Colorado. The results of this work will provide content for a web-based, collaborative geospatial decision support system being developed to support environmental management in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed. Presently, land use in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed is more than 50 percent agricultural and almost 25 percent residential with varying levels of urbanization. As a result, flow in the Arroyo Colorado is sustained primarily by discharge from municipal wastewater treatment facilities, irrigation return flows, and urban storm runoff. In this study, streamflow and nutrient loading simulations for the Arroyo Colorado Watershed are based on the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by projected future climatic conditions generated from five global circulation models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Land use change data are incorporated based on various remote sensing earth observation products including NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer datasets and Landsat images in the multiagency National Land Cover Database. Population change and urbanization are considered in terms of changes in permitted wastewater treatment discharges. The findings of this study indicate that hydrological models like SWAT are useful tools for evaluating the watershed impacts from global climate change scenarios. In developing climate adaption plans, such models should include significant interactions among various local water management systems driven by population growth and urbanization in communities, and site-specific agricultural water use.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

NASA Composite Cryotank Technology Project Game Changing Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fikes, John

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this project was to provide new and innovative cryotank technologies that enable human space exploration to destinations beyond low earth orbit such as the moon, near-earth asteroids, and Mars. The goal ... to mature technologies in preparation for potential system level flight demonstrations through significant ground-based testing and/or laboratory experimentation

Role of Brokerage in Evolving Innovation Systems: A Case of the Fodder Innovation Project in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madzudzo, Elias

2011-01-01

This paper looks at brokerage functions in a project on building innovation capacity through improved networking. Innovation capacity influences how actors respond to changes in their environments. In such dynamic environments well connected sets of actors are at an advantage in that they can combine skills to address the emerging opportunities…

Human Resource Development and Human Services Technology...A Training Program Comes of Age: Final Project Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cowley, Dan

This report presents comprehensive documentation for the Mental Health Associate Training Project at Wayne Community College. The report is composed of twelve sections describing: (1) the changing nature, philosophy and scope of the human services as a system; (2) the characteristics of the college service area; (3) general information about Wayne…

1994: New Academic Profession for a New South Africa?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolhuter, C. C.

2015-01-01

Since 1994, the eyes of the world have been on South Africa, observing with interest the societal reconstruction project, upon which the country had embarked. In this project, higher education is both the terrain and the perceived instrument of change. In this higher education system and its mission, the academic profession is pivotal--especially,…

Characteristics of Young Children Exposed to Violence: The Safe Start Demonstration Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Joy S.; Ortega, Sandra; Schewe, Paul A.; Kracke, Kristen

2011-01-01

The Safe Start demonstration projects, funded by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) under the first phase of the Safe Start initiative, are primarily designed to influence change at the systems or macrolevels to reduce the incidence of and impact of exposure to violence for children aged birth to 6 years; direct…

Designing Professional Learning for Effecting Change: Partnerships for Local and System Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyatt-Smith, Claire; Bridges, Susan; Hedemann, Maree; Neville, Mary

2008-01-01

This paper presents (i) a purpose-built conceptual model for professional learning and (ii) a leadership framework designed to support a large-scale project involving diverse sites across the state of Queensland, Australia. The project had as its focus teacher-capacity building and ways to improve literacy and numeracy outcomes for students at…

SEDLP Research Brief No. 1: Key Findings from the Baseline Survey of Participants. The Sectoral Employment Development Learning Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zandniapour, Lily

Sectoral employment training programs attempt to provide disadvantaged people with good jobs that pay living wages and offer opportunities for advancement, using innovative approaches to employment training and interacting with industries to create systemic change in labor markets. The Sectoral Employment Development Learning Project (SEDLP) is a…

78 FR 15007 - Notice of Open House-Draft Environmental Impact Statement for Revised Water Control Manuals for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-08

... by USACE to operate a system of five Federal reservoir projects in the basin--Allatoona Dam and Lake... manuals for the ACT Basin in order to improve operations for authorized purposes to reflect changed... determine how the federal projects in the ACT Basin should adjust operations for their authorized purposes...

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

Sustainability of partnership projects: a conceptual framework and checklist.

PubMed

Edwards, Janine C; Feldman, Penny Hollander; Sangl, Judy; Polakoff, David; Stern, Glen; Casey, Don

2007-12-01

There is growing recognition that the health care delivery system in the United States must make major changes. Intervention projects focusing on quality and patient safety offer the potential for reshaping the future of medicine. Sustainability of the Partnerships for Quality (PFQ) projects and other patient safety and quality improvement projects that provide evidence of effectiveness is essential if progress is to be made. For the purposes of these projects, a conceptual framework and a checklist for sustainability were developed. The framework consists of two dimensions: (1) the goals--what is to be sustained--and (2) elements for sustainability--infrastructure, incentives, incremental opportunities for involvement, and integration. The checklist is designed to trigger planning for sustainability early in a project's design. Specific questions about each of the elements can cue planners and project leaders to build in the goals for sustainability and change processes. A pilot test showed that the framework and checklist are relevant and helpful across a variety of projects. Two extended examples of planning and action for sustainability from the PFQ projects are described. It is too early to claim sustainability for these project. However, continued monitoring for at least three years with the checklist could result in valuable national data with which to design and implement future projects.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Software Smarts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

Under an SBIR (Small Business Innovative Research) contract with Johnson Space Center, Knowledge Based Systems Inc. (KBSI) developed an intelligent software environment for modeling and analyzing mission planning activities, simulating behavior, and, using a unique constraint propagation mechanism, updating plans with each change in mission planning activities. KBSI developed this technology into a commercial product, PROJECTLINK, a two-way bridge between PROSIm, KBSI's process modeling and simulation software and leading project management software like Microsoft Project and Primavera's SureTrak Project Manager.

A Systems Approach to Manage Drinking Water Quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Drinking water supplies can be vulnerable to impacts from short-term weather events, long-term changes in land-use and climate, and water quality controls in treatment and distribution. Disinfection by-product (DBP) formation in drinking water is a prominent example to illustrate the water supply vulnerability and examine technological options in adaptation. Total organic carbon (TOC) in surface water can vary significantly due to changes or a combination of changes in watershed land use, climate variability, and extreme meteorological events (e.g., hurricanes). On the other hand, water demand is known to vary temporarily and spatially leading to changes in water ages and hence DBP formation potential. Typically a drinking water facility is designed to operate within a projected range of influent water quality and water demand. When the variations exceed the design range, water supply becomes vulnerable in the compliance to Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) Stage-II disinfection by-product (DBP) rules. This paper describes a framework of systems-level modeling, monitoring and control in adaptive planning and system operation. The framework, built upon the integration of model projections, adaptive monitoring and systems control, has three primary functions. Its advantages and limitations will be discussed with the application examples in Cincinnati (Ohio, USA) and Las Vegas (Nevada, USA). At a conceptual level, an integrated land use and hydrological model

SHERPA Electromechanical Test Bed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wason, John D.

2005-01-01

SHERPA (Strap-on High-altitude Entry Reconnaissance and Precision Aeromaneuver system) is a concept for low-cost-high-accuracy Martian reentry guidance for small scout-class missions with a capsule diameter of approximately 1 meter. This system uses moving masses to change the center of gravity of the capsule in order to control the lift generated by the controlled imbalance. This project involved designing a small proof-of-concept demonstration system that can be used to test the concept through bench-top testing, hardware-in-the-loop testing, and eventually through a drop test from a helicopter. This project has focused on the Mechatronic design aspects of the system including the mechanical, electrical, computer, and low-level control of the concept demonstration system.

EVA Suit Studies: Human Forward Contamination Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rucker, Michelle

2017-01-01

Background: NASA Strategic Knowledge Gap B5: Forward Contamination for Mars. Issue: we have knowledge gaps!: Whether / how microbes are released from crewed pressure systems. Why do we care?: Informs Mars operational concepts - How to protect the science; Informs architecture decisions - How “open” Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) systems are; Informs landing site selection decisions - How close we can land / operate to where life may be present. Project goal: get some data to fill in these gaps: Data will help determine whether we’re ready to go to Mars, or if we need to change our systems or operational designs.

UAS in the NAS Project: Large-Scale Communication Architecture Simulations with NASA GRC Gen5 Radio Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kubat, Gregory

2016-01-01

This report provides a description and performance characterization of the large-scale, Relay architecture, UAS communications simulation capability developed for the NASA GRC, UAS in the NAS Project. The system uses a validated model of the GRC Gen5 CNPC, Flight-Test Radio model. Contained in the report is a description of the simulation system and its model components, recent changes made to the system to improve performance, descriptions and objectives of sample simulations used for test and verification, and a sampling and observations of results and performance data.

A new research project on the interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Y.; Nishijima, J.; Kazama, T.; Nakamura, K.; Doi, K.; Suganuma, Y.; Okuno, J.; Araya, A.; Kaneda, H.; Aoyama, Y.

2017-12-01

A new research project of "Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas" funded by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) has recently been launched. The title of the project is "Giant reservoirs of heat/water/material: Global environmental changes driven by Southern Ocean and Antarctic Ice Sheet", and as a five years project, is aiming to establish a new research area for Antarctic environmental system science. The project consists of 7 research topics, including Antarctic ice sheet and Southern ocean sciences, new observation methodology, modeling and other interdisciplinary topics, and we are involved in the topic A02-2, "Interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet". The Antarctic ice sheet, which relates to the global climate changes through the sea level rise and ocean circulation, is an essential element of the Earth system for predicting the future environment changes. Thus many studies of the ice sheet changes have been conducted by means of geomorphological, geological, geodetic surveys, as well as satellite gravimetry and satellite altimetry. For these studies, one of the largest uncertainties is the effects of GIA. Therefore, GIA as a key to investigate the interaction between the solid Earth and the ice sheet changes, we plan to conduct geomorphological, geological and geodetic surveys in the inland mountain areas and the coastal areas including the surrounding areas of a Japanese station Syowa in East Antarctica, where the in-situ data for constraining GIA models are very few. Combining these new observations with other in-site data, various satellite data and numerical modeling, we aim to estimating a precise GIA model, constructing a reliable ice melting history after the last glacial maximum and obtaining the viscoelastic structure of the Earth's interior. In the presentation, we also show the five years research plans as well. This study was partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 17H06321.

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2018-04-01

Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

A bottom-up, vulnerability-based framework for identifying the adaptive capacity of water resources systems in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system vulnerability drivers and by enhancing the adaptive capacity of the system to respond to unforeseen events, in order to design robust and resilient adaptation measures. The approach is demonstrated on the multipurpose operation of the Lake Como system, located in Northern Italy, accounting for flood protection and irrigation supply. Numerical results show that our framework successfully identified the failure boundary based on current system management policies, which is demonstrated as being particularly sensitive to decreases in both precipitation and temperature. To estimate the likelihood of the climate being in states causing system failures and to provide a time frame for reaching such states, we consider 22 climate model projections; these projections suggest that the current management policies will lead to a high chance of failure over the next 40 years. The adaptive capacity of the re-optimized operating policies exhibits the potential for partially mitigating adverse climate change impacts and for extending the life of the system.

When the Fog Clears: Long-Term Monitoring of Fog and Fog-Dependent Biota in the Namib Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, J. R. V.

2014-12-01

The Gobabeb Research and Training Centre in western Namibia is currently undertaking several efforts to enhance long-term atmospheric and fog monitoring in the central Namib Desert and to measure how fog-dependent biota are responding to global change. In an environment that receives regular sea fog and a mean annual rainfall of only 25 mm, Gobabeb is ideally situated to study the drivers and ecological role of fog in arid environments. Currently more than ten meteorological projects perform measurements at or close to Gobabeb. These projects include continuous trace gas measurements, fog isotope sampling, in situ surface radiation measurements, land surface temperature and other satellite validation studies, and multiple aerosol/dust monitoring projects; most of these projects are also components in other global monitoring networks. To these projects, Gobabeb has recently added a network of nine autonomous weather stations spanning the central Namib that will continuously collect basic meteorological data over an area of approximately 70x70 km. Using this data in conjunction with modeling efforts will expand our understanding of fog formation and the linkages between fog and the Benguela Current off Namibia's coast. Historical weather data from previous meteorological stations and satellite observations will also enable development of a fog time series for the last 50 years to determine climate variability driven by possible changes in the Benguela Current system. To complement these efforts, Gobabeb is also expanding its decades-old ecological research programs to explore the impacts of the fog on the region's biota at various time and spatial scales. Gobabeb's long-term, multidisciplinary projects can serve as a prototype for monitoring in other fog-affected systems, together increasing our understanding of coastal fog dynamics, land-atmosphere-ocean connections, and the impacts of fog-related global change.

PERPHECLIM ACCAF Project - Perennial fruit crops and forest phenology evolution facing climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Audergon, Jean Marc; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Anger, Christel; Bonhomme, Marc; Chuine, Isabelle; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Duchêne, Eric; Legave, Jean Michel; Raynal, Hélène; Pichot, Christian; Van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Perpheclim Team

2015-04-01

Phenology is a bio-indicator of climate evolutions. Measurements of phenological stages on perennial species provide actually significant illustrations and assessments of the impact of climate change. Phenology is also one of the main key characteristics of the capacity of adaptation of perennial species, generating questions about their consequences on plant growth and development or on fruit quality. Predicting phenology evolution and adaptative capacities of perennial species need to override three main methodological limitations: 1) existing observations and associated databases are scattered and sometimes incomplete, rendering difficult implementation of multi-site study of genotype-environment interaction analyses; 2) there are not common protocols to observe phenological stages; 3) access to generic phenological models platforms is still very limited. In this context, the PERPHECLIM project, which is funded by the Adapting Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change Meta-Program (ACCAF) from INRA (French National Institute of Agronomic Research), has the objective to develop the necessary infrastructure at INRA level (observatories, information system, modeling tools) to enable partners to study the phenology of various perennial species (grapevine, fruit trees and forest trees). Currently the PERPHECLIM project involves 27 research units in France. The main activities currently developed are: define protocols and observation forms to observe phenology for various species of interest for the project; organizing observation training; develop generic modeling solutions to simulate phenology (Phenological Modelling Platform and modelling platform solutions); support in building research projects at national and international level; develop environment/genotype observation networks for fruit trees species; develop an information system managing data and documentation concerning phenology. Finally, PERPHECLIM project aims to build strong collaborations with public (Observatoire des Saisons) and private sector partners (technical institutes) in order to allow a more direct transfer of knowledge.

DECOVALEX-THMC Task D: Long-Term Permeability/Porosity Changes inthe EDZ and Near Field due to THM and THC Processes in Volcanic andCrystaline-Bentonite Systems, Status Report October 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, J.; Rutqvist, J.; Sonnenthal, E.

The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperativeproject initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, withparticipation of about 10 international organizations. The name DECOVALEXstands for DEvelopment of COupled models and their VALidation againstExperiments. The general goal of this project is to encouragemultidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modelingcoupled processes in geologic formations in support of the performanceassessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. Three multi-yearproject stages of DECOVALEX have been completed in the past decade,mainly focusing on coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanicalprocesses.Currently, a fourth three-year project stage of DECOVALEX isunder way, referred to as DECOVALEX-THMC. THMC stands for Thermal,Hydrological, Mechanical, and Chemical processes.more » The new project stageaims at expanding the traditional geomechanical scope of the previousDECOVALEX project stages by incorporating geochemical processes importantfor repository performance. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) leadsTask D of the new DECOVALEX phase, entitled "Long-termPermeability/Porosity Changes in the EDZ and Near Field due to THC andTHM Processes for Volcanic and Crystalline-Bentonite Systems." In itsleadership role for Task D, DOE coordinates and sets the direction forthe cooperative research activities of the international research teamsengaged in Task D.« less

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.; ...

2015-07-23

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less

Anthropogenic biomes: a key contribution to earth-system science

Treesearch

Lilian Alessa; F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Human activities now dominate most of the ice-free terrestrial surface. A recent article presents a classification and global map of human-influenced biomes of the world that provides a novel and potentially appropriate framework for projecting changes in earth-system dynamics.

Using Executive Information Systems to Manage Capital Projects and Facilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaynor, Robert

1993-01-01

In higher education, facilities data are essential for long-term capital and financial planning and for testing assumptions underlying anticipated policy change. Executive information systems should incorporate life-cycle considerations (planning, construction, renovation, and management) and resource linkages (describing interrelationships of…

Australian Apprenticeships. Research at a Glance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Leabrook (Australia).

Australia's apprenticeship system was examined in 11 individual research projects that focused on various aspects of the system, including the following: milestones in its development; its changing structure; its broadening occupational base and client base; characteristics of apprentices; completion and attrition rates; outcomes from traditional…

A Semi-empirical Model of the Stratosphere in the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodergren, A. H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.; Meinshausen, M.; McDonald, A.

2014-12-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) currently used to project changes in Antarctic ozone are extremely computationally demanding. CCM projections are uncertain due to lack of knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone depleting substances (ODSs), as well as parameterizations within the CCMs that have weakly constrained tuning parameters. While projections should be based on an ensemble of simulations, this is not currently possible due to the complexity of the CCMs. An inexpensive but realistic approach to simulate changes in stratospheric ozone, and its coupling to the climate system, is needed as a complement to CCMs. A simple climate model (SCM) can be used as a fast emulator of complex atmospheric-ocean climate models. If such an SCM includes a representation of stratospheric ozone, the evolution of the global ozone layer can be simulated for a wide range of GHG and ODS emissions scenarios. MAGICC is an SCM used in previous IPCC reports. In the current version of the MAGICC SCM, stratospheric ozone changes depend only on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC). In this work, MAGICC is extended to include an interactive stratospheric ozone layer using a semi-empirical model of ozone responses to CO2and EESC, with changes in ozone affecting the radiative forcing in the SCM. To demonstrate the ability of our new, extended SCM to generate projections of global changes in ozone, tuning parameters from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and 10 carbon cycle models (to create an ensemble of 190 simulations) have been used to generate probability density functions of the dates of return of stratospheric column ozone to 1960 and 1980 levels for different latitudes.

Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O’Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; Stein, Bruce A.; Thompson, Laura M.; Turner, Woody

2013-01-01

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

Renal and Cardio-Endocrine Responses in Humans to Simulated Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Gordon H.

1999-01-01

The volume regulating systems are integrated to produce an appropriate response to both acute and chronic volume changes. Their responses include changing the levels of the hormones and neural inputs of the involved systems and/or changing the responsiveness of their target tissues. Weightlessness during space travel produces a volume challenge that is unfamiliar to the organism. Thus, it is likely that these volume regulatory mechanisms may respond inappropriately, e.g., a decrease in total body volume in space and abnormal responses to upright posture and stress on return to Earth. A similar "inappropriateness" also can occur in disease states, e.g., congestive heart failure. While it is clear that weightlessness produces profound changes in sodium and volume homeostasis, the mechanisms responsible for these changes are incompletely understood. Confounding this analysis is sleep deprivation, common in space travel, which can also modify volume homeostatic mechanisms. The purpose of this project is to provide the required understanding and then to design appropriate countermeasures to reduce or eliminate the adverse effects of microgravity. To accomplish this we are addressing five Specific Aims: (1) To test the hypothesis that microgravity modifies the acute responsiveness of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) and renal blood flow; (2) Does simulated microgravity change the circadian rhythm of the volume- regulating hormones?; (3) Does simulated microgravity change the target tissue responsiveness to angiotensin 11 (AngII)?; (4) Does chronic sleep deprivation modify the circadian rhythm of the RAAS and change the acute responsiveness of this system to posture beyond what a microgravity environment alone does? and (5) What effect does salt restriction have on the volume homeostatic and neurohumoral responses to a microgravity environment? Because the RAAS plays a pivotal role in blood pressure control and volume homeostasis, it likely is a major mediator of the adaptive cardio-renal responses observed during space missions and is a special focus of this project. Thus, the overall goal of this project is to assess the impact of microgravity and sleep deprivation in humans on volume-regulating systems. To achieve this overall objective, we are evaluating renal blood flow and the status and responsiveness of the volume- regulating systems (RAAS, atrial natriuretic peptide and vasopressin), and the adrenergic system (plasma and urine catecholamines) in both simulated microgravity and normal gravity with and -Without sleep deprivation. Furthermore, the responses of the volume homeostatic mechanisms to acute stimulation by upright tilt testing, standing and exercise are being evaluated before and after achieving equilibrium with these interventions.

Impact of hydroelectric development upon a northern Manitoba native community

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldram, J.B.

1983-01-01

This dissertation describes the process of underdevelopment among the Cree Indian people of South Indian Lake, in Northern Manitoba, Canada, following the construction of the Churchill-Nelson River Hydro Project in 1975. The dissertation seeks to link the ecological, political, economic, socio-cultural and health aspects of the impact of the hydro project within the framework of the historical process of underdevelopment as it has occurred in Latin America, among Native people in the United States, and among Native people in Northern Canada. Utilizing both qualitative and quantitative data, a process of increased dependence is described as the product of two relatedmore » processes. The first process is the impairment of the local commercial and domestic economy caused by the flooding of Southern Indian Lake, which has resulted in a decline in local productivity. The second process is the enhancement of consumerism through rising consumer expectations and a post-project increase in available goods and services which the people are increasingly unable to afford. The overall result has been a process of economic divergence at the local level. The dissertation concludes that the process of underdevelopment which has occurred in South Indian Lake has been the result primarily of changes in the local ecological system caused by the construction of the hydro project. These ecological changes have, in turn, resulted in secondary changes in the socio-economic system.« less

Campus sustainable food projects: critique and engagement.

PubMed

Barlett, Peggy F

2011-01-01

Campus sustainable food projects recently have expanded rapidly. A review of four components - purchasing goals, academic programs, direct marketing, and experiential learning - shows both intent and capacity to contribute to transformational change toward an alternative food system. The published rationales for campus projects and specific purchasing guidelines join curricular and cocurricular activities to evaluate, disseminate, and legitimize environmental, economic, social justice, and health concerns about conventional food. Emerging new metrics of food service practices mark a potential shift from rhetoric to market clout, and experiential learning builds new coalitions and can reshape relations with food and place. Campus projects are relatively new and their resilience is not assured, but leading projects have had regional, state, and national impact. The emergence of sustainability rankings in higher education and contract-based compliance around purchasing goals suggests that if support continues, higher education's leadership can extend to the broader agrifood system.

Dedicated System for Observation of Polaris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavin, Andrew

2018-01-01

Polaris, the North Star, has been known to be a Cepheid variable star for over 150 years (Seidel, 1852). Special interest has been given to Polaris’ variations because of its changing period and periods of cessation (D. Turner et al, 2005). The continuous monitoring of Polaris’ brightness provides us with insights on the behaviors of Cepheid variable stars that are undergoing transformations. Since its inception in 2004, the Polaris project has been somewhat of a white whale for PARI and the numerous interns that have worked on the project. The primary goal of this project is the production of a continuous light curve of Polaris through an automated system. Along with providing a continuous light curve of Polaris, this system will be able to produce an archive of data on the seeing conditions of the PARI site.

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

Development of an International Research Project of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, C.

2006-05-01

Monson Asia has been recommended as one of the critical regions of integrated study of global change. Among a number of reasons, the most significant features of Monsoon Asia is that this is a region where the major features of landscape, such as vegetation, soil and water system are mainly developed under the most representative monsoon climate. On the other hand, the Monsoon Asia is a region with the most active human development. It has more than 5000 years long history of civilization and highest population density of the world, reaching 57 percent of word population. It also had the most rapid development in last decades and is projected to maintain its high growth rates in the foreseeable future. The human-monsoon system interactions and their linkages with the earth system dynamics could be a challenge issue of global change research and a sustainable Asia . A science plan of MAIRS is under drafting by SSC of MAIRS under the guidance of START and an international project office of MAIRS was formally opened in IAP/Chinese Academy of Sciences under the support of Chinese government. The overall objectives of the MAIRS that will combine field experiments, process studies, and modeling components are: 1) To better understand how human activities in regions are interacting with and altering natural regional variability of the atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine components of the environment; 2) To contribute to the provision of a sound scientific basis for sustainable regional development; 3) To develop a predictive capability of estimating changes in global-regional linkages in the Earth System and to recognize on a sound scientific basis the future consequences of such changes.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

Introduction--the Socially Sustainable Egg Production project.

PubMed

Swanson, J C; Mench, J A; Thompson, P B

2011-01-01

The social and political pressure to change egg production from conventional cage systems to alternative systems has been largely driven by the desire to provide more behavioral freedom for egg-laying hens. However, a change of this magnitude can affect other components of the production system and may result in unintended outcomes. To understand this issue, a Socially Sustainable Egg Production project was formed to 1) conduct a holistic and integrated systematic review of the current state of knowledge about various aspects of sustainable egg production, and 2) develop a coordinated grant proposal for future extramural funding based on the research priorities identified from the review. Expert study groups were formed to write evidence-based papers in 5 critical sustainability areas: hen health and welfare, economics, food safety and quality, public attitudes, and environmental impacts. These papers were presented as the PSA Emerging Issues Symposium on Social Sustainability of Egg Production at the 2010 Poultry Science Association meeting.

Latest Changes to NASA's Laser Communication Relay Demonstration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Bernard L.; Israel, David J.; Vithlani, Seema K.

2018-01-01

Over the last couple of years, NASA has been making changes to the Laser Communications Relay Demonstration Project (LCRD), a joint project between NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (JPL), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). The changes made makes LCRD more like a future Earth relay system that has both high speed optical and radio frequency links. This will allow LCRD to demonstrate a more detailed concept of operations for a future operational mission critical Earth relay. LCRD is expected to launch in June 2019 and is expected to be followed a couple of years later with a prototype user terminal on the International Space Station. LCRD's architecture will allow it to serve as a testbed in space and this paper will provide an update of its planned capabilities and experiments.

Rigorous Photogrammetric Processing of CHANG'E-1 and CHANG'E-2 Stereo Imagery for Lunar Topographic Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, K.; Liu, Y.; Liu, B.; Peng, M.

2012-07-01

Chang'E-1(CE-1) and Chang'E-2(CE-2) are the two lunar orbiters of China's lunar exploration program. Topographic mapping using CE-1 and CE-2 images is of great importance for scientific research as well as for preparation of landing and surface operation of Chang'E-3 lunar rover. In this research, we developed rigorous sensor models of CE-1 and CE-2 CCD cameras based on push-broom imaging principle with interior and exterior orientation parameters. Based on the rigorous sensor model, the 3D coordinate of a ground point in lunar body-fixed (LBF) coordinate system can be calculated by space intersection from the image coordinates of con-jugate points in stereo images, and the image coordinates can be calculated from 3D coordinates by back-projection. Due to uncer-tainties of the orbit and the camera, the back-projected image points are different from the measured points. In order to reduce these inconsistencies and improve precision, we proposed two methods to refine the rigorous sensor model: 1) refining EOPs by correcting the attitude angle bias, 2) refining the interior orientation model by calibration of the relative position of the two linear CCD arrays. Experimental results show that the mean back-projection residuals of CE-1 images are reduced to better than 1/100 pixel by method 1 and the mean back-projection residuals of CE-2 images are reduced from over 20 pixels to 0.02 pixel by method 2. Consequently, high precision DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and DOM (Digital Ortho Map) are automatically generated.

Climate Change and Dryland Wheat Systems in the US Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockle, C.; Karimi, T.; Huggins, D. R.; Nelson, R.

2015-12-01

A regional assessment of historical and future yields, and components of the water, nitrogen, and carbon soil balance of dryland wheat-based cropping systems in the US Pacific Northwest is being conducted (Regional Approaches to Climate Change project funded by USDA-NIFA). All these elements intertwines and are important to understand the future of these systems in the region. A computer simulation methodology was used based on the CropSyst model and historic and projected daily weather data downscaled to a 4x4 km grid including 14 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways of future atmospheric CO2 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study region was divided in 3 agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on precipitation amount: low (<300 mm/year), intermediate (300-460 mm/year) and high (>460 mm/year), with a change from crop-fallow, to transition fallow (crop-crop-fallow) to annual cropping, respectively. Typical wheat-based rotations included winter wheat (WW)-Summer fallow (SF) for the low AEZ, WW-spring wheat (SW)-SF for the intermediate AEZ, and WW-SW-spring peas for the high AEZ, all under conventional and no tillage management. Alternative systems incorporating canola were also evaluated. Results suggest that, in most cases, these dryland systems may fare well in the future (31-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2070), with potential gains in productivity. Also, a trend towards increased fallow in the intermediate AEZ appears possible for higher productivity, and the inclusion of less water demanding crops may help sustain cropping intensity. Uncertainties in these projections arise from large discrepancies among climate models regarding the warming rate, compounded by different possible future CO2 emission scenarios, the degree of change in frequency and severity of extreme events and associated potential damages to crop canopies due to cold weather and grain set reduction due to extreme heat events. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds that could affect crop production and management costs. Finally, there is also uncertainty on the speed of technological innovation allowing producers to adapt to changing conditions.

Lessons learned on the Ground Test Accelerator control system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kozubal, A.J.; Weiss, R.E.

1994-09-01

When we initiated the control system design for the Ground Test Accelerator (GTA), we envisioned a system that would be flexible enough to handle the changing requirements of an experimental project. This control system would use a developers` toolkit to reduce the cost and time to develop applications for GTA, and through the use of open standards, the system would accommodate unforeseen requirements as they arose. Furthermore, we would attempt to demonstrate on GTA a level of automation far beyond that achieved by existing accelerator control systems. How well did we achieve these goals? What were the stumbling blocks tomore » deploying the control system, and what assumptions did we make about requirements that turned out to be incorrect? In this paper we look at the process of developing a control system that evolved into what is now the ``Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System`` (EPICS). Also, we assess the impact of this system on the GTA project, as well as the impact of GTA on EPICS. The lessons learned on GTA will be valuable for future projects.« less

Value of Investment as a Key Driver for Prioritization and Implementation of Healthcare Software.

PubMed

Bata, Seth A; Richardson, Terry

2018-01-01

Health systems across the nation are recovering from massive financial and resource investments in electronic health record applications. In the midst of these recovery efforts, implementations of new care models, including accountable care organizations and population health initiatives, are underway. The shift from fee-for-service to fee-for-outcomes and fee-for-value payment models calls for care providers to work in new ways. It also changes how physicians are compensated and reimbursed. These changes necessitate that healthcare systems further invest in information technology solutions. Selecting which information technology (IT) projects are of most value is vital, especially in light of recent expenditures. Return-on-investment analysis is a powerful tool used in various industries to select the most appropriate IT investments. It has proven vital in selecting, justifying, and implementing software projects. Other financial metrics, such as net present value, economic value added, and total economic impact, also quantify the success of expenditures on information systems. This paper extends the concept of quantifying project value to include clinical outcomes and nonfinancial value as investment returns, applying a systematic approach to healthcare software projects. We term this inclusive approach Value of Investment. It offers a necessary extension for application in clinical settings where a strictly financial view may fall short in providing a complete picture of important benefits. This paper outlines the Value of Investment process and its attributes, and uses illustrative examples to explore the efficacy of this methodology within a midsized health system.

Value of Investment as a Key Driver for Prioritization and Implementation of Healthcare Software

PubMed Central

Bata, Seth A.; Richardson, Terry

2018-01-01

Health systems across the nation are recovering from massive financial and resource investments in electronic health record applications. In the midst of these recovery efforts, implementations of new care models, including accountable care organizations and population health initiatives, are underway. The shift from fee-for-service to fee-for-outcomes and fee-for-value payment models calls for care providers to work in new ways. It also changes how physicians are compensated and reimbursed. These changes necessitate that healthcare systems further invest in information technology solutions. Selecting which information technology (IT) projects are of most value is vital, especially in light of recent expenditures. Return-on-investment analysis is a powerful tool used in various industries to select the most appropriate IT investments. It has proven vital in selecting, justifying, and implementing software projects. Other financial metrics, such as net present value, economic value added, and total economic impact, also quantify the success of expenditures on information systems. This paper extends the concept of quantifying project value to include clinical outcomes and nonfinancial value as investment returns, applying a systematic approach to healthcare software projects. We term this inclusive approach Value of Investment. It offers a necessary extension for application in clinical settings where a strictly financial view may fall short in providing a complete picture of important benefits. This paper outlines the Value of Investment process and its attributes, and uses illustrative examples to explore the efficacy of this methodology within a midsized health system. PMID:29618963

Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

2017-04-01

Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of climate change in Western Siberia, and dissemination of the Project results. Results of the first stage of the Project implementation are presented. This work is supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No16-19-10257.

Qualitative Phenomenological Study of Data Management Information System Deployments: Financial Services Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerns, Dannie J.

2014-01-01

The qualitative phenomenological study explored the lived experiences of financial services industry change managers to understand the genesis of low data management information system project adoption rates. The goal of the study was to find methods to improve data management information system adoption rates. The participant pool consisted of 19…

24 CFR 965.407 - Reevaluations of master-meter systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Reevaluations of master-meter systems. 965.407 Section 965.407 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING AND URBAN... Existing PHA-Owned Projects § 965.407 Reevaluations of master-meter systems. Because of changes in the cost...

Assessing the Performance of the Army Reserve Components School System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winkler, John D.; And Others

The operation of the U.S. Army's Reserve Components (RC) school system was assessed. Three areas were identified that were fundamental to the system where organizational changes could make a difference. First, the project assessed training requirements and school delivery of courses. In serving a sizable training requirement for reclassification…

The Evaluation of SEPAS National Project Based on Electronic Health Record System (EHRS) Coordinates in Iran.

PubMed

Asadi, Farkhondeh; Moghaddasi, Hamid; Rabiei, Reza; Rahimi, Forough; Mirshekarlou, Soheila Jahangiri

2015-12-01

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are secure private lifetime records that can be shared by using interoperability standards between different organizations and units. These records are created by the productive system that is called EHR system. Implementing EHR systems has a number of advantages such as facilitating access to medical records, supporting patient care, and improving the quality of care and health care decisions. The project of electronic health record system in Iran, which is the goal of this study, is called SEPAS. With respect to the importance of EHR and EHR systems the researchers investigated the project from two perspectives: determining the coordinates of the project and how it evolved, and incorporating the coordinates of EHR system in this project. In this study two evaluation tools, a checklist and a questionnaire, were developed based on texts and reliable documentation. The questionnaire and the checklist were validated using content validity by receiving the experts' comments and the questionnaire's reliability was estimated through Test-retest(r =87%). Data were collected through study, observation, and interviews with experts and specialists of SEPAS project. This research showed that SEPAS project, like any other project, could be evaluated. It has some aims; steps, operational phases and certain start and end time, but all the resources and required facilities for the project have not been considered. Therefore it could not satisfy its specified objective and the useful and unique changes which are the other characteristics of any project have not been achieved. In addition, the findings of EHR system coordinates can be determined in 4 categories as Standards and rules, Telecommunication-Communication facilities, Computer equipment and facilities and Stakeholders. The findings indicated that SEPAS has the ability to use all standards of medical terminology and health classification systems in the case of Maksa approval (The reference health coding of Iran). ISO13606 was used as the main standard in this project. Regarding the telecommunication-communication facilities of the project, the findings showed that its link is restricted to health care centers which does not cover other institutions and organizations involved in public health. The final result showed that SEPAS is in the early stages of execution. And the full implementation of EHR needs the provision of the infrastructure of the National Health Information Network that is the same as EHR system.

Model-based system engineering approach for the Euclid mission to manage scientific and technical complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo Alvarez, Jose; Metselaar, Harold; Amiaux, Jerome; Saavedra Criado, Gonzalo; Gaspar Venancio, Luis M.; Salvignol, Jean-Christophe; Laureijs, René J.; Vavrek, Roland

2016-08-01

In the last years, the system engineering field is coming to terms with a paradigm change in the approach for complexity management. Different strategies have been proposed to cope with highly interrelated systems, system of systems and collaborative system engineering have been proposed and a significant effort is being invested into standardization and ontology definition. In particular, Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) intends to introduce methodologies for a systematic system definition, development, validation, deployment, operation and decommission, based on logical and visual relationship mapping, rather than traditional 'document based' information management. The practical implementation in real large-scale projects is not uniform across fields. In space science missions, the usage has been limited to subsystems or sample projects with modeling being performed 'a-posteriori' in many instances. The main hurdle for the introduction of MBSE practices in new projects is still the difficulty to demonstrate their added value to a project and whether their benefit is commensurate with the level of effort required to put them in place. In this paper we present the implemented Euclid system modeling activities, and an analysis of the benefits and limitations identified to support in particular requirement break-down and allocation, and verification planning at mission level.

Using the NASA Giovanni DICCE Portal to Investigate Land-Ocean Linkages with Satellite and Model Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.; Zalles, Daniel; Krumhansl, Ruth

2012-01-01

Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (DICCE), a NASA climate change education project, employs the NASA Giovanni data system to enable teachers to create climate-related classroom projects using selected satellite and assimilated model data. The easy-to-use DICCE Giovanni portal (DICCE-G) provides data parameters relevant to oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric processes. Participants will explore land-ocean linkages using the available data in the DICCE-G portal, in particular focusing on temperature, ocean biology, and precipitation variability related to El Ni?o and La Ni?a events. The demonstration includes the enhanced information for educators developed for the DICCE-G portal. The prototype DICCE Learning Environment (DICCE-LE) for classroom project development will also be demonstrated.

The Educational Implications of High Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Henry M.; Rumberger, Russell W.

The changes to be effected by high technology in both projected employment growth and existing jobs seem to require significant changes in the American educational system. However, government estimates for the period 1978-90 suggest that employment growth will favor jobs that require little or no training beyond the high school level (for…

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

A New Relationship: The Teacher and the Learner in an Age of Telecommunication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Norman

The 20th Century has witnessed tremendous changes in the American workforce, communications and information technology, and the nation's economy. Changes in the next 20 years are projected to surpass those of the past 80 years. Historically, the focal point for reacting to changes in skills needed in the workplace has been the educational system,…

Global Systems Science and Hands-On Universe Course Materials for High School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, A.

2011-09-01

The University of California Berkeley's Lawrence Hall of Science has a project called Global Systems Science (GSS). GSS produced a set of course materials for high school science education that includes reading materials, investigations, and software for analyzing satellite images of Earth focusing on Earth systems as well as societal issues that require interdisciplinary science for full understanding. The software has general application in analysis of any digital images for a variety of purposes. NSF and NASA funding have contributed to the development of GSS. The current NASA-funded project of GSS is Lifelines for High School Climate Change Education (LHSCCE), which aims to establish professional learning communities (PLCs) to share curriculum resources and best practices for teaching about climate change in grades 9-12. The project explores ideal ways for teachers to meet either in-person or using simple yet effective distance-communication techniques (tele-meetings), depending on local preferences. Skills promoted include: how to set up a website to share resources; initiating tele-meetings with any available mechanism (webinars, Skype, telecons, moodles, social network tools, etc.); and easy ways of documenting and archiving presentations made at meetings. Twenty teacher leaders are forming the PLCs in their regions or districts. This is a national effort in which teachers share ideas, strategies, and resources aimed at making science education relevant to societal issues, improve students' understanding of climate change issues, and contribute to possible solutions. Although the binding theme is climate change, the application is to a wide variety of courses: Earth science, environmental science, biology, physics, and chemistry. Moreover, the PLCs formed can last as long as the members find it useful and can deal with any topics of interest, even if they are only distantly related to climate change.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-04-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

2017-04-01

This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

Modeling high resolution space-time variations in energy demand/CO2 emissions of human inhabited landscapes in the United States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godbole, A. V.; Gurney, K. R.

2010-12-01

With urban and exurban areas now accounting for more than 50% of the world's population, projected to increase 20% by 2050 (UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009), urban-climate interactions are of renewed interest to the climate change scientific community (Karl et. al, 1988; Kalnay and Cai, 2003; Seto and Shepherd, 2009). Until recently, climate modeling efforts treated urban-human systems as independent of the earth system. With studies pointing to the disproportionately large influence of urban areas on their surrounding environment (Small et. al, 2010), modeling efforts have begun to explicitly account for urban processes in land models, like the CLM 4.0 urban layer, for example (Oleson.et. al, 2008, 2010). A significant portion of the urban energy demand comes from the space heating and cooling requirement of the residential and commercial sectors - as much as 51% (DOE, RECS 2005) and 11% (Belzer, D. 2006) respectively, in the United States. Thus, these sectors are both responsible for a significant fraction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and will be influenced by a changing climate through changes in energy use and energy supply planning. This points to the possibility of interactive processes and feedbacks with the climate system. Space conditioning energy demand is strongly driven by external air temperature (Ruth, M. et.al, 2006) in addition to other socio-economic variables such as building characteristics (age of structure, activity cycle, weekend/weekday usage profile), occupant characteristics (age of householder, household income) and energy prices (Huang, 2006; Santin et. al, 2009; Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009). All of these variables vary both in space and time. Projections of climate change have begun to simulate changes in temperature at much higher resolution than in the past (Diffenbaugh et. al, 2005). Hence, in order to understand how climate change and variability will potentially impact energy use/emissions and energy planning, these two components of the human-climate system must be coupled in climate modeling efforts to better understand the impacts and feedbacks. To implement modeling strategies for coupling the human and climate systems, their interactions must first be examined in greater detail at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This work attempts to quantify the impact of high resolution variations in projected climate change on energy use/emissions in the United States. We develop a predictive model for the space heating component of residential and commercial energy demand by leveraging results from the high resolution fossil fuel CO2 inventory of the Vulcan Project (Gurney et al., 2009). This predictive model is driven by high resolution temperature data from the RegCM3 model obtained by implementing a downscaling algorithm (Chow and Levermore, 2007). We will present the energy use/emissions in both the space and time domain from two different predictive models highlighting strengths and weaknesses in both. Furthermore, we will explore high frequency variations in the projected temperature field and how these might place potentially large burdens on energy supply and delivery.

SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change--A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary, Long-term Arctic Research Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, H. V.; Schlosser, P.; Fox, S. E.

2009-12-01

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) is a multi-agency effort to observe, understand, and guide responses to changes in the changing arctic system. Under the SEARCH program, guided by the Science Steering Committee (SSC), the Observing, Understanding, and Responding to Change panels, and the Interagency Program Management Committee (IPMC), scientists with a variety of expertise work together to achieve goals of the program. Over 150 projects and activities contribute to SEARCH implementation. The Observing Change component is underway through the NSF’s Arctic Observing Network (AON), NOAA-sponsored atmospheric and sea ice observations, and other relevant national and international efforts, including the EU-sponsored Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies (DAMOCLES) Program. The Understanding Change component of SEARCH consists of modeling and analysis efforts, including the Sea Ice Outlook project, an international effort to provide a community-wide summary of the expected September arctic sea ice minimum. The Understanding Change component also has strong linkages to programs such as the NSF Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program. The Responding to Change element will be launched through stakeholder-focused research and applications addressing social and economic concerns. As a national program under the International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), SEARCH is working to expand international connections. The State of the Arctic Conference (soa.arcus.org), to be held 16-19 March 2010 in Miami, will be a milestone activity of SEARCH and will provide an international forum for discussion of future research directions aimed toward a better understanding of the arctic system and its trajectory. SEARCH is sponsored by eight U.S. agencies that comprise the IPMC, including: the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Energy (DOE), the Department of the Interior (DOI), the Smithsonian Institution, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The U.S. Arctic Research Commission (USARC) participates as an IPMC observer. For more information, visit the website at: http://www.arcus.org/search or contact: Helen V. Wiggins: helen@arcus.org, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS; or Peter Schlosser, schlosser@ldeo.columbia.edu, SEARCH SSC Chair.

A standard lexicon for biodiversity conservation: unified classifications of threats and actions.

PubMed

Salafsky, Nick; Salzer, Daniel; Stattersfield, Alison J; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Neugarten, Rachel; Butchart, Stuart H M; Collen, Ben; Cox, Neil; Master, Lawrence L; O'Connor, Sheila; Wilkie, David

2008-08-01

An essential foundation of any science is a standard lexicon. Any given conservation project can be described in terms of the biodiversity targets, direct threats, contributing factors at the project site, and the conservation actions that the project team is employing to change the situation. These common elements can be linked in a causal chain, which represents a theory of change about how the conservation actions are intended to bring about desired project outcomes. If project teams want to describe and share their work and learn from one another, they need a standard and precise lexicon to specifically describe each node along this chain. To date, there have been several independent efforts to develop standard classifications for the direct threats that affect biodiversity and the conservation actions required to counteract these threats. Recognizing that it is far more effective to have only one accepted global scheme, we merged these separate efforts into unified classifications of threats and actions, which we present here. Each classification is a hierarchical listing of terms and associated definitions. The classifications are comprehensive and exclusive at the upper levels of the hierarchy, expandable at the lower levels, and simple, consistent, and scalable at all levels. We tested these classifications by applying them post hoc to 1191 threatened bird species and 737 conservation projects. Almost all threats and actions could be assigned to the new classification systems, save for some cases lacking detailed information. Furthermore, the new classification systems provided an improved way of analyzing and comparing information across projects when compared with earlier systems. We believe that widespread adoption of these classifications will help practitioners more systematically identify threats and appropriate actions, managers to more efficiently set priorities and allocate resources, and most important, facilitate cross-project learning and the development of a systematic science of conservation.

The deployment of a tissue request tracking system for the CHTN: a case study in managing change in informatics for biobanking operations

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Managing change has not only been recognized as an important topic in medical informatics, but it has become increasingly important in translational informatics. The move to share data, together with the increasing complexity and volume of the data, has precipitated a transition from locally stored worksheet and flat files to relational data bases with object oriented interfaces for data storage and retrieval. While the transition from simple to complex data structures, mirroring the transition from simple to complex experimental technologies, seems natural, the human factor often fails to be adequately addressed leading to failures in managing change. Methods We describe here a case study in change management applied to an application in translational informatics that touches upon changes in hardware, software, data models, procedures, and terminology standards. We use the classic paper by Riley and Lorenzi to dissect the problems that arose, the solutions that were implemented, and the lessons learned. Results The entire project from requirements gathering through completion of migration of the system took three years. Double data entry into the old and new systems persisted for six months. Contributing factors hindering progress and solutions to facilitate managing the change were identified in seven of the areas identified by Riley and Lorenzi: communications, cultural changes in work practice, scope creep, leadership and organizational issues, and training. Conclusions Detailed documentation of the agreed upon requirements for the new system along with ongoing review of the sources of resistance to change as defined by Riley and Lorenzi were the most important steps taken that contributed to the success of the project. Cultural changes in tissue collection mandated by standards requirements introduced by the Cancer Bioinformatics Grid (CaBIG®) and excessive reliance on the outgoing system during a lengthy period of dual data entry were the primary sources of resistance to change. PMID:20525187

The deployment of a tissue request tracking system for the CHTN: a case study in managing change in informatics for biobanking operations.

PubMed

Edgerton, Mary E; Grizzle, William E; Washington, M Kay

2010-06-02

Managing change has not only been recognized as an important topic in medical informatics, but it has become increasingly important in translational informatics. The move to share data, together with the increasing complexity and volume of the data, has precipitated a transition from locally stored worksheet and flat files to relational data bases with object oriented interfaces for data storage and retrieval. While the transition from simple to complex data structures, mirroring the transition from simple to complex experimental technologies, seems natural, the human factor often fails to be adequately addressed leading to failures in managing change. We describe here a case study in change management applied to an application in translational informatics that touches upon changes in hardware, software, data models, procedures, and terminology standards. We use the classic paper by Riley and Lorenzi to dissect the problems that arose, the solutions that were implemented, and the lessons learned. The entire project from requirements gathering through completion of migration of the system took three years. Double data entry into the old and new systems persisted for six months. Contributing factors hindering progress and solutions to facilitate managing the change were identified in seven of the areas identified by Riley and Lorenzi: communications, cultural changes in work practice, scope creep, leadership and organizational issues, and training. Detailed documentation of the agreed upon requirements for the new system along with ongoing review of the sources of resistance to change as defined by Riley and Lorenzi were the most important steps taken that contributed to the success of the project. Cultural changes in tissue collection mandated by standards requirements introduced by the Cancer Bioinformatics Grid (CaBIG) and excessive reliance on the outgoing system during a lengthy period of dual data entry were the primary sources of resistance to change.

Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

2017-04-01

The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science, modelling changes in soil properties, erosion and sediment transport, agronomy and socio-economy. Beyond the description of the MASCC project, this presentation will describe the first results on the variability of soil erosion observed in the monitored catchments and on the impact of major events on the current soil erosion delivered at catchment outlet. As a starting project, MASCC will foster the involvement of all additional participants that would like to contribute to the project. Acknowledgements: We thanks the Arimnet2 ERA-Net initiative that funded the MASCC project. Keywords: Soil erosion, Agriculture, Conservation, Global change, Mediterranean area.

Open Ocean Assessments for Management in the GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Project (TWAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, A. S.; Alverson, K. D.

2010-12-01

A methodology for a thematic and scientifically-credible assessment of Open Ocean waters as a part of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Transboundary Waters Assessment Project (TWAP) has been developed in the last 18 months by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, and is presented for feedback and comment. While developed to help the GEF International Waters focal area target investment to manage looming environmental threats in interlinked freshwater and marine systems (a very focused decision support system), the assessment methodology could contribute to other assessment and management efforts in the UN system and elsewhere. Building on a conceptual framework that describes the relationships between human systems and open ocean natural systems, and on mapping of the human impact on the marine environment, the assessment will evaluate and make projections on a thematic basis, identifying key metrics, indices, and indicators. These themes will include the threats on key ecosystem services of climate change through sea level rise, changed stratification, warming, and ocean acidification; vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and living marine resources; the impact and sustainability of fisheries; and pollution. Global-level governance arrangements will also be evaluated, with an eye to identifying scope for improved global-level management. The assessment will build on sustained ocean observing systems, model projections, and an assessment of scientific literature, as well as tools for combining knowledge to support identification of priority concerns and in developing scenarios for management. It will include an assessment of key research and observing needs as one way to deal with the scientific uncertainty inherent in such an exercise, and to better link policy and science agendas.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resolving the problem of compliance with the ever increasing and changing regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leigh, Harley

1992-01-01

The most common problem identified at several U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites is regulatory compliance. Simply, the project viability depends on identifying regulatory requirements at the beginning of a specific project to avoid possible delays and cost overruns. The Radioisotope Power Systems Facility (RPSF) is using the Regulatory Compliance System (RCS) to deal with the problem that well over 1000 regulatory documents had to be reviewed for possible compliance requirements applicable to the facility. This overwhelming number of possible documents is not atypical of all DOE facilities thus far reviewed using the RCS system. The RCS was developed to provide control and tracking of all the regulatory and institutional requirements on a given project. WASTREN, Inc., developed the RCS through various DOE contracts and continues to enhance and update the system for existing and new contracts. The RCS provides the information to allow the technical expert to assimilate and manage accurate resource information, compile the necessary checklists, and document that the project or facility fulfills all of the appropriate regulatory requirements. The RCS provides on-line information, including status throughout the project life, thereby allowing more intelligent and proactive decision making. Also, consistency and traceability are provided for regulatory compliance documentation.

77 FR 38051 - Jones Canyon Hydro, LLC; Notice of Application for Amendment of Preliminary Permit Accepted for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-26

... proposed reservoirs from 6,225 feet to 7,330 feet; and (7) change the name of the project from ``Jones Canyon Pumped Storage Project'' to ``Oregon Winds Pumped Storage''. FERC Contact: Jennifer Harper, 202..., using the eComment system at http://www.ferc.gov/docs-filing/ecomment.asp . You must include your name...

Successful Rural Water Supply Projects and the Concerns of Women. Women in Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roark, Paula

As the traditional water carriers and water managers, third world women are crucial to the success of rural water supply projects whose short term goal is increased water quality and quantity and whose long term goal is improved family health. Change depends on the utilization of local learning systems of the society and women are most often the…

Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy Demonstration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackson, Roderick; Lee, Brian; Love, Lonnie

2016-02-05

Meet AMIE - the Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy demonstration project. Led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and many industry partners, the AMIE project changes the way we think about generating, storing, and using electrical power. AMIE uses an integrated energy system that shares energy between a building and a vehicle. And, utilizing advanced manufacturing and rapid innovation, it only took one year from concept to launch.

Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy Demonstration

ScienceCinema

Jackson, Roderick; Lee, Brian; Love, Lonnie; Mabe, Gavin; Keller, Martin; Curran, Scott; Chinthavali, Madhu; Green, Johney; Sawyer, Karma; Enquist, Phil

2018-01-16

Meet AMIE - the Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy demonstration project. Led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and many industry partners, the AMIE project changes the way we think about generating, storing, and using electrical power. AMIE uses an integrated energy system that shares energy between a building and a vehicle. And, utilizing advanced manufacturing and rapid innovation, it only took one year from concept to launch.

Title IV Quality Control Project, Stage II. Management Option II: Delivery System Quality Improvements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Advanced Technology, Inc., Reston, VA.

Stage Two of the Title IV Quality Control Project is an integrated study of quality in five related Federal financial aid programs for postsecondary students. Section 1 of the paper establishes a framework for defining quality improvements, in order to identify the types of changes that would tend to improve quality across all facets of the…

"Making a difference" - Medical students' opportunities for transformational change in health care and learning through quality improvement projects.

PubMed

Bergh, Anne-Marie; Bac, Martin; Hugo, Jannie; Sandars, John

2016-07-11

Quality improvement is increasingly becoming an essential aspect of the medical curriculum, with the intention of improving the health care system to provide better health care. The aim of this study was to explore undergraduate medical students' experiences of their involvement in quality improvement projects during a district health rotation. Student group reports from rotations in learning centres of the University of Pretoria in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa were analysed for the period 2012 to 2015. Interviews were conducted with health care providers at four learning centres in 2013. Three main themes were identified: (1) 'Situated learning', describing students' exposure to the discrepancies between ideal and reality in a real-life situation and how they learned to deal with complex situations, individually and as student group; (2) 'Facing dilemmas', describing how students were challenged about the non-ideal reality; (3) 'Making a difference', describing the impact of the students' projects, with greater understanding of themselves and others through working in teams but also making a change in the health care system. Quality improvement projects can provide an opportunity for both the transformation of health care and for transformative learning, with individual and 'collective' self-authorship.

In Vivo Observation of Structural Changes in Neocortical Catecholaminergic Projections in Response to Drugs of Abuse.

PubMed

Morimoto, Mai M; Tanaka, Shinji; Mizutani, Shunsuke; Urata, Shinji; Kobayashi, Kazuto; Okabe, Shigeo

2018-01-01

Catecholaminergic (dopamine and norepinephrine) projections to the cortex play an important role in cognitive functions and dysfunctions including learning, addiction, and mental disorders. While dynamics of glutamatergic synapses have been well studied in such contexts, little is known regarding catecholaminergic projections, owing to lack of robust methods. Here we report a system to monitor catecholaminergic projections in vivo over the timeframes that such events occur. Green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression driven by tyrosine hydroxylase promoter in a transgenic mouse line enabled us to perform two-photon imaging of cortical catecholaminergic projections through a cranial window. Repetitive imaging of the same axons over 24 h revealed the highly dynamic nature of catecholaminergic boutons. Surprisingly, administration of single high dose methamphetamine (MAP) induced a transient increase in bouton volumes. This new method opens avenues for longitudinal in vivo evaluation of structural changes at single release sites of catecholamines in association with physiology and pathology of cortical functions.

In Vivo Observation of Structural Changes in Neocortical Catecholaminergic Projections in Response to Drugs of Abuse

PubMed Central

Morimoto, Mai M.; Tanaka, Shinji; Mizutani, Shunsuke; Urata, Shinji; Kobayashi, Kazuto

2018-01-01

Catecholaminergic (dopamine and norepinephrine) projections to the cortex play an important role in cognitive functions and dysfunctions including learning, addiction, and mental disorders. While dynamics of glutamatergic synapses have been well studied in such contexts, little is known regarding catecholaminergic projections, owing to lack of robust methods. Here we report a system to monitor catecholaminergic projections in vivo over the timeframes that such events occur. Green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression driven by tyrosine hydroxylase promoter in a transgenic mouse line enabled us to perform two-photon imaging of cortical catecholaminergic projections through a cranial window. Repetitive imaging of the same axons over 24 h revealed the highly dynamic nature of catecholaminergic boutons. Surprisingly, administration of single high dose methamphetamine (MAP) induced a transient increase in bouton volumes. This new method opens avenues for longitudinal in vivo evaluation of structural changes at single release sites of catecholamines in association with physiology and pathology of cortical functions. PMID:29445765

Q-BIC3 - A Québec-Bavarian international collaboration for adapting regional watershed management to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2010-05-01

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is certainly one of the major challenges in water resources management over the next decades. Adaptation to climate change risks is most crucial in this domain, since projected increase in mean air temperature in combination with an expected increase in the temporal variability of precipitation patterns will contribute to pressure on current water availability, allocation and management practices. The latter often involve the utilization of valuable infrastructure, such as dams, reservoirs and water intakes, for which adaptation options must by developed over long-term and often dynamic planning horizons. Research to establish novel methodologies for improved adaptation to climate change is thus very important and only beginning to emerge in regional watershed management. The presented project Q-BIC³, funded by the Bavarian Minstry for the Environment and the Québec Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation, aims to develop and apply a newly designed spectrum of tools to support the improved assessment of adaptation options to climate change in regional watershed management. It addresses in particular selected study sites in Québec and Bavaria. The following key issues have been prioritized within Q-BIC³: i) The definition of potential adaptation options in the context of climate change for pre-targeted water management key issues using a subsequent and logical chain of modelling tools (climate, hydrological and water management modeling tools) ii) The definition of an approach that accounts for hydrological projection uncertainties in the search for potential adaptation options in the context of climate change iii) The investigation of the required complexity in hydrological models to estimate climate change impacts and to develop specific adaptation options for Québec and Bavaria watersheds. iv) The development and prototyping of a regionally transferable and modular modelling system for integrated watershed management under climate change conditions. The study sites under investigation, namely the Haut-Saint Francois and Gatineau watersheds in Québec and the Isar and Regnitz catchments in Bavaria, are under heavy anthropogenic use. Intense dam and reservoir operations and even water transfer systems are in place to satisfy multi-purpose demands on available water resources. These are imposing extreme modifications to the natural flow regimes. In the first phase of the project, climatic forcing, stemming from an ensemble of selected GCM and RCM runs, is applied to a variety of hydrological models with different complexity. The derived projections of future hydrological conditions serve to investigate, whether current operation rules and/or existing infrastructure needs to be adapted to a changing environment. First findings demonstrate the large uncertainties associated to the model chain outputs, but also indicate that related adaptation is indispensable to meet the challenges of the rapidly changing man-environment systems.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

Controllable 3D Display System Based on Frontal Projection Lenticular Screen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Q.; Sang, X.; Yu, X.; Gao, X.; Wang, P.; Li, C.; Zhao, T.

2014-08-01

A novel auto-stereoscopic three-dimensional (3D) projection display system based on the frontal projection lenticular screen is demonstrated. It can provide high real 3D experiences and the freedom of interaction. In the demonstrated system, the content can be changed and the dense of viewing points can be freely adjusted according to the viewers' demand. The high dense viewing points can provide smooth motion parallax and larger image depth without blurry. The basic principle of stereoscopic display is described firstly. Then, design architectures including hardware and software are demonstrated. The system consists of a frontal projection lenticular screen, an optimally designed projector-array and a set of multi-channel image processors. The parameters of the frontal projection lenticular screen are based on the demand of viewing such as the viewing distance and the width of view zones. Each projector is arranged on an adjustable platform. The set of multi-channel image processors are made up of six PCs. One of them is used as the main controller, the other five client PCs can process 30 channel signals and transmit them to the projector-array. Then a natural 3D scene will be perceived based on the frontal projection lenticular screen with more than 1.5 m image depth in real time. The control section is presented in detail, including parallax adjustment, system synchronization, distortion correction, etc. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this novel controllable 3D display system.

Advanced Space Surface Systems Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffaker, Zachary Lynn; Mueller, Robert P.

2014-01-01

The importance of advanced surface systems is becoming increasingly relevant in the modern age of space technology. Specifically, projects pursued by the Granular Mechanics and Regolith Operations (GMRO) Lab are unparalleled in the field of planetary resourcefulness. This internship opportunity involved projects that support properly utilizing natural resources from other celestial bodies. Beginning with the tele-robotic workstation, mechanical upgrades were necessary to consider for specific portions of the workstation consoles and successfully designed in concept. This would provide more means for innovation and creativity concerning advanced robotic operations. Project RASSOR is a regolith excavator robot whose primary objective is to mine, store, and dump regolith efficiently on other planetary surfaces. Mechanical adjustments were made to improve this robot's functionality, although there were some minor system changes left to perform before the opportunity ended. On the topic of excavator robots, the notes taken by the GMRO staff during the 2013 and 2014 Robotic Mining Competitions were effectively organized and analyzed for logistical purposes. Lessons learned from these annual competitions at Kennedy Space Center are greatly influential to the GMRO engineers and roboticists. Another project that GMRO staff support is Project Morpheus. Support for this project included successfully producing mathematical models of the eroded landing pad surface for the vertical testbed vehicle to predict a timeline for pad reparation. And finally, the last project this opportunity made contribution to was Project Neo, a project exterior to GMRO Lab projects, which focuses on rocket propulsion systems. Additions were successfully installed to the support structure of an original vertical testbed rocket engine, thus making progress towards futuristic test firings in which data will be analyzed by students affiliated with Rocket University. Each project will be explained in further detail, as well as the full scope of the contributions made during this opportunity.