Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

Cluster ensemble based on Random Forests for genetic data.

PubMed

Alhusain, Luluah; Hafez, Alaaeldin M

2017-01-01

Clustering plays a crucial role in several application domains, such as bioinformatics. In bioinformatics, clustering has been extensively used as an approach for detecting interesting patterns in genetic data. One application is population structure analysis, which aims to group individuals into subpopulations based on shared genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms. Advances in DNA sequencing technology have facilitated the obtainment of genetic datasets with exceptional sizes. Genetic data usually contain hundreds of thousands of genetic markers genotyped for thousands of individuals, making an efficient means for handling such data desirable. Random Forests (RFs) has emerged as an efficient algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data. RFs provides a proximity measure that can capture different levels of co-occurring relationships between variables. RFs has been widely considered a supervised learning method, although it can be converted into an unsupervised learning method. Therefore, RF-derived proximity measure combined with a clustering technique may be well suited for determining the underlying structure of unlabeled data. This paper proposes, RFcluE, a cluster ensemble approach for determining the underlying structure of genetic data based on RFs. The approach comprises a cluster ensemble framework to combine multiple runs of RF clustering. Experiments were conducted on high-dimensional, real genetic dataset to evaluate the proposed approach. The experiments included an examination of the impact of parameter changes, comparing RFcluE performance against other clustering methods, and an assessment of the relationship between the diversity and quality of the ensemble and its effect on RFcluE performance. This paper proposes, RFcluE, a cluster ensemble approach based on RF clustering to address the problem of population structure analysis and demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The paper also illustrates that applying a cluster ensemble approach, combining multiple RF clusterings, produces more robust and higher-quality results as a consequence of feeding the ensemble with diverse views of high-dimensional genetic data obtained through bagging and random subspace, the two key features of the RF algorithm.

The Impact of Density and Ratio on Object-Ensemble Representation in Human Anterior-Medial Ventral Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Cant, Jonathan S.; Xu, Yaoda

2015-01-01

Behavioral research has demonstrated that observers can extract summary statistics from ensembles of multiple objects. We recently showed that a region of anterior-medial ventral visual cortex, overlapping largely with the scene-sensitive parahippocampal place area (PPA), participates in object-ensemble representation. Here we investigated the encoding of ensemble density in this brain region using fMRI-adaptation. In Experiment 1, we varied density by changing the spacing between objects and found no sensitivity in PPA to such density changes. Thus, density may not be encoded in PPA, possibly because object spacing is not perceived as an intrinsic ensemble property. In Experiment 2, we varied relative density by changing the ratio of 2 types of objects comprising an ensemble, and observed significant sensitivity in PPA to such ratio change. Although colorful ensembles were shown in Experiment 2, Experiment 3 demonstrated that sensitivity to object ratio change was not driven mainly by a change in the ratio of colors. Thus, while anterior-medial ventral visual cortex is insensitive to density (object spacing) changes, it does code relative density (object ratio) within an ensemble. Object-ensemble processing in this region may thus depend on high-level visual information, such as object ratio, rather than low-level information, such as spacing/spatial frequency. PMID:24964917

Determination of the conformational ensemble of the TAR RNA by X-ray scattering interferometry.

PubMed

Shi, Xuesong; Walker, Peter; Harbury, Pehr B; Herschlag, Daniel

2017-05-05

The conformational ensembles of structured RNA's are crucial for biological function, but they remain difficult to elucidate experimentally. We demonstrate with HIV-1 TAR RNA that X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) can be used to determine RNA conformational ensembles. X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI) is based on site-specifically labeling RNA with pairs of heavy atom probes, and precisely measuring the distribution of inter-probe distances that arise from a heterogeneous mixture of RNA solution structures. We show that the XSI-based model of the TAR RNA ensemble closely resembles an independent model derived from NMR-RDC data. Further, we show how the TAR RNA ensemble changes shape at different salt concentrations. Finally, we demonstrate that a single hybrid model of the TAR RNA ensemble simultaneously fits both the XSI and NMR-RDC data set and show that XSI can be combined with NMR-RDC to further improve the quality of the determined ensemble. The results suggest that XSI-RNA will be a powerful approach for characterizing the solution conformational ensembles of RNAs and RNA-protein complexes under diverse solution conditions. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

PubMed

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

2016-08-12

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Revealing the distinct folding phases of an RNA three-helix junction.

PubMed

Plumridge, Alex; Katz, Andrea M; Calvey, George D; Elber, Ron; Kirmizialtin, Serdal; Pollack, Lois

2018-05-14

Remarkable new insight has emerged into the biological role of RNA in cells. RNA folding and dynamics enable many of these newly discovered functions, calling for an understanding of RNA self-assembly and conformational dynamics. Because RNAs pass through multiple structures as they fold, an ensemble perspective is required to visualize the flow through fleetingly populated sets of states. Here, we combine microfluidic mixing technology and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) to measure the Mg-induced folding of a small RNA domain, the tP5abc three helix junction. Our measurements are interpreted using ensemble optimization to select atomically detailed structures that recapitulate each experimental curve. Structural ensembles, derived at key stages in both time-resolved studies and equilibrium titrations, reproduce the features of known intermediates, and more importantly, offer a powerful new structural perspective on the time-progression of folding. Distinct collapse phases along the pathway appear to be orchestrated by specific interactions with Mg ions. These key interactions subsequently direct motions of the backbone that position the partners of tertiary contacts for later bonding, and demonstrate a remarkable synergy between Mg and RNA across numerous time-scales.

Topology determines force distributions in one-dimensional random spring networks.

PubMed

Heidemann, Knut M; Sageman-Furnas, Andrew O; Sharma, Abhinav; Rehfeldt, Florian; Schmidt, Christoph F; Wardetzky, Max

2018-02-01

Networks of elastic fibers are ubiquitous in biological systems and often provide mechanical stability to cells and tissues. Fiber-reinforced materials are also common in technology. An important characteristic of such materials is their resistance to failure under load. Rupture occurs when fibers break under excessive force and when that failure propagates. Therefore, it is crucial to understand force distributions. Force distributions within such networks are typically highly inhomogeneous and are not well understood. Here we construct a simple one-dimensional model system with periodic boundary conditions by randomly placing linear springs on a circle. We consider ensembles of such networks that consist of N nodes and have an average degree of connectivity z but vary in topology. Using a graph-theoretical approach that accounts for the full topology of each network in the ensemble, we show that, surprisingly, the force distributions can be fully characterized in terms of the parameters (N,z). Despite the universal properties of such (N,z) ensembles, our analysis further reveals that a classical mean-field approach fails to capture force distributions correctly. We demonstrate that network topology is a crucial determinant of force distributions in elastic spring networks.

Topology determines force distributions in one-dimensional random spring networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidemann, Knut M.; Sageman-Furnas, Andrew O.; Sharma, Abhinav; Rehfeldt, Florian; Schmidt, Christoph F.; Wardetzky, Max

2018-02-01

Networks of elastic fibers are ubiquitous in biological systems and often provide mechanical stability to cells and tissues. Fiber-reinforced materials are also common in technology. An important characteristic of such materials is their resistance to failure under load. Rupture occurs when fibers break under excessive force and when that failure propagates. Therefore, it is crucial to understand force distributions. Force distributions within such networks are typically highly inhomogeneous and are not well understood. Here we construct a simple one-dimensional model system with periodic boundary conditions by randomly placing linear springs on a circle. We consider ensembles of such networks that consist of N nodes and have an average degree of connectivity z but vary in topology. Using a graph-theoretical approach that accounts for the full topology of each network in the ensemble, we show that, surprisingly, the force distributions can be fully characterized in terms of the parameters (N ,z ) . Despite the universal properties of such (N ,z ) ensembles, our analysis further reveals that a classical mean-field approach fails to capture force distributions correctly. We demonstrate that network topology is a crucial determinant of force distributions in elastic spring networks.

Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Drift Compensation Using a Two-Dimensional Classifier Ensemble

PubMed Central

Liu, Hang; Chu, Renzhi; Tang, Zhenan

2015-01-01

Sensor drift is the most challenging problem in gas sensing at present. We propose a novel two-dimensional classifier ensemble strategy to solve the gas discrimination problem, regardless of the gas concentration, with high accuracy over extended periods of time. This strategy is appropriate for multi-class classifiers that consist of combinations of pairwise classifiers, such as support vector machines. We compare the performance of the strategy with those of competing methods in an experiment based on a public dataset that was compiled over a period of three years. The experimental results demonstrate that the two-dimensional ensemble outperforms the other methods considered. Furthermore, we propose a pre-aging process inspired by that applied to the sensors to improve the stability of the classifier ensemble. The experimental results demonstrate that the weight of each multi-class classifier model in the ensemble remains fairly static before and after the addition of new classifier models to the ensemble, when a pre-aging procedure is applied. PMID:25942640

A probabilistic verification score for contours demonstrated with idealized ice-edge forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goessling, Helge; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We introduce a probabilistic verification score for ensemble-based forecasts of contours: the Spatial Probability Score (SPS). Defined as the spatial integral of local (Half) Brier Scores, the SPS can be considered the spatial analog of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Applying the SPS to idealized seasonal ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice edge in a global coupled climate model, we demonstrate that the SPS responds properly to ensemble size, bias, and spread. When applied to individual forecasts or ensemble means (or quantiles), the SPS is reduced to the 'volume' of mismatch, in case of the ice edge corresponding to the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE).

Ocean state and uncertainty forecasts using HYCOM with Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Mozheng; Hogan, Pat; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Ole-Martin; Wallcraft, Alan; Penny, Steve

2017-04-01

An ensemble forecast system based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology has been developed for ocean state and uncertainty forecasts. One of the advantages is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates the operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is supplied with the ensemble, thus it avoids the difficulty of developing tangent linear and adjoint models for 4D-VAR from the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate in HYCOM. Another advantage is that the ensemble system provides the valuable uncertainty estimate corresponding to every state forecast from HYCOM. Uncertainty forecasts have been proven to be critical for the downstream users and managers to make more scientifically sound decisions in numerical prediction community. In addition, ensemble mean is generally more accurate and skilful than the single traditional deterministic forecast with the same resolution. We will introduce the ensemble system design and setup, present some results from 30-member ensemble experiment, and discuss scientific, technical and computational issues and challenges, such as covariance localization, inflation, model related uncertainties and sensitivity to the ensemble size.

Comparing Planning Hydrologic Ensembles associated with Paleoclimate, Projected Climate, and blended Climate Information Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Prairie, J.; Pruitt, T.; Rajagopalan, B.; Woodhouse, C.

2008-12-01

Water resources adaptation planning under climate change involves making assumptions about probabilistic water supply conditions, which are linked to a given climate context (e.g., instrument records, paleoclimate indicators, projected climate data, or blend of these). Methods have been demonstrated to associate water supply assumptions with any of these climate information types. Additionally, demonstrations have been offered that represent these information types in a scenario-rich (ensemble) planning framework, either via ensembles (e.g., survey of many climate projections) or stochastic modeling (e.g., based on instrument records or paleoclimate indicators). If the planning goal involves using a hydrologic ensemble that jointly reflects paleoclimate (e.g., lower- frequency variations) and projected climate information (e.g., monthly to annual trends), methods are required to guide how these information types might be translated into water supply assumptions. However, even if such a method exists, there is lack of understanding on how such a hydrologic ensemble might differ from ensembles developed relative to paleoclimate or projected climate information alone. This research explores two questions: (1) how might paleoclimate and projected climate information be blended into an planning hydrologic ensemble, and (2) how does a planning hydrologic ensemble differ when associated with the individual climate information types (i.e. instrumental records, paleoclimate, projected climate, or blend of the latter two). Case study basins include the Gunnison River Basin in Colorado and the Missouri River Basin above Toston in Montana. Presentation will highlight ensemble development methods by information type, and comparison of ensemble results.

The Contribution of Object Shape and Surface Properties to Object Ensemble Representation in Anterior-medial Ventral Visual Cortex.

PubMed

Cant, Jonathan S; Xu, Yaoda

2017-02-01

Our visual system can extract summary statistics from large collections of objects without forming detailed representations of the individual objects in the ensemble. In a region in ventral visual cortex encompassing the collateral sulcus and the parahippocampal gyrus and overlapping extensively with the scene-selective parahippocampal place area (PPA), we have previously reported fMRI adaptation to object ensembles when ensemble statistics repeated, even when local image features differed across images (e.g., two different images of the same strawberry pile). We additionally showed that this ensemble representation is similar to (but still distinct from) how visual texture patterns are processed in this region and is not explained by appealing to differences in the color of the elements that make up the ensemble. To further explore the nature of ensemble representation in this brain region, here we used PPA as our ROI and investigated in detail how the shape and surface properties (i.e., both texture and color) of the individual objects constituting an ensemble affect the ensemble representation in anterior-medial ventral visual cortex. We photographed object ensembles of stone beads that varied in shape and surface properties. A given ensemble always contained beads of the same shape and surface properties (e.g., an ensemble of star-shaped rose quartz beads). A change to the shape and/or surface properties of all the beads in an ensemble resulted in a significant release from adaptation in PPA compared with conditions in which no ensemble feature changed. In contrast, in the object-sensitive lateral occipital area (LO), we only observed a significant release from adaptation when the shape of the ensemble elements varied, and found no significant results in additional scene-sensitive regions, namely, the retrosplenial complex and occipital place area. Together, these results demonstrate that the shape and surface properties of the individual objects comprising an ensemble both contribute significantly to object ensemble representation in anterior-medial ventral visual cortex and further demonstrate a functional dissociation between object- (LO) and scene-selective (PPA) visual cortical regions and within the broader scene-processing network itself.

Ensemble Manifold Rank Preserving for Acceleration-Based Human Activity Recognition.

PubMed

Tao, Dapeng; Jin, Lianwen; Yuan, Yuan; Xue, Yang

2016-06-01

With the rapid development of mobile devices and pervasive computing technologies, acceleration-based human activity recognition, a difficult yet essential problem in mobile apps, has received intensive attention recently. Different acceleration signals for representing different activities or even a same activity have different attributes, which causes troubles in normalizing the signals. We thus cannot directly compare these signals with each other, because they are embedded in a nonmetric space. Therefore, we present a nonmetric scheme that retains discriminative and robust frequency domain information by developing a novel ensemble manifold rank preserving (EMRP) algorithm. EMRP simultaneously considers three aspects: 1) it encodes the local geometry using the ranking order information of intraclass samples distributed on local patches; 2) it keeps the discriminative information by maximizing the margin between samples of different classes; and 3) it finds the optimal linear combination of the alignment matrices to approximate the intrinsic manifold lied in the data. Experiments are conducted on the South China University of Technology naturalistic 3-D acceleration-based activity dataset and the naturalistic mobile-devices based human activity dataset to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the new nonmetric scheme for acceleration-based human activity recognition.

Thermodynamic-ensemble independence of solvation free energy.

PubMed

Chong, Song-Ho; Ham, Sihyun

2015-02-10

Solvation free energy is the fundamental thermodynamic quantity in solution chemistry. Recently, it has been suggested that the partial molar volume correction is necessary to convert the solvation free energy determined in different thermodynamic ensembles. Here, we demonstrate ensemble-independence of the solvation free energy on general thermodynamic grounds. Theoretical estimates of the solvation free energy based on the canonical or grand-canonical ensemble are pertinent to experiments carried out under constant pressure without any conversion.

Rapid cell separation with minimal manipulation for autologous cell therapies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Alban J.; O'Rorke, Richard D.; Kale, Akshay; Rimsa, Roberts; Tomlinson, Matthew J.; Kirkham, Jennifer; Davies, A. Giles; Wälti, Christoph; Wood, Christopher D.

2017-02-01

The ability to isolate specific, viable cell populations from mixed ensembles with minimal manipulation and within intra-operative time would provide significant advantages for autologous, cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. Current cell-enrichment technologies are either slow, lack specificity and/or require labelling. Thus a rapid, label-free separation technology that does not affect cell functionality, viability or phenotype is highly desirable. Here, we demonstrate separation of viable from non-viable human stromal cells using remote dielectrophoresis, in which an electric field is coupled into a microfluidic channel using shear-horizontal surface acoustic waves, producing an array of virtual electrodes within the channel. This allows high-throughput dielectrophoretic cell separation in high conductivity, physiological-like fluids, overcoming the limitations of conventional dielectrophoresis. We demonstrate viable/non-viable separation efficacy of >98% in pre-purified mesenchymal stromal cells, extracted from human dental pulp, with no adverse effects on cell viability, or on their subsequent osteogenic capabilities.

Entropy of network ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianconi, Ginestra

2009-03-01

In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

The Effect of Ensemble Performance Quality on the Evaluation of Conducting Expressivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silvey, Brian A.

2011-01-01

This study was designed to examine whether the presence of excellent or poor ensemble performances would influence the ratings assigned by ensemble members to conductors who demonstrated highly expressive conducting. Two conductors were videotaped conducting one of two excerpts from an arrangement of Frank Ticheli's "Loch Lomond." These videos…

The Impact of Density and Ratio on Object-Ensemble Representation in Human Anterior-Medial Ventral Visual Cortex.

PubMed

Cant, Jonathan S; Xu, Yaoda

2015-11-01

Behavioral research has demonstrated that observers can extract summary statistics from ensembles of multiple objects. We recently showed that a region of anterior-medial ventral visual cortex, overlapping largely with the scene-sensitive parahippocampal place area (PPA), participates in object-ensemble representation. Here we investigated the encoding of ensemble density in this brain region using fMRI-adaptation. In Experiment 1, we varied density by changing the spacing between objects and found no sensitivity in PPA to such density changes. Thus, density may not be encoded in PPA, possibly because object spacing is not perceived as an intrinsic ensemble property. In Experiment 2, we varied relative density by changing the ratio of 2 types of objects comprising an ensemble, and observed significant sensitivity in PPA to such ratio change. Although colorful ensembles were shown in Experiment 2, Experiment 3 demonstrated that sensitivity to object ratio change was not driven mainly by a change in the ratio of colors. Thus, while anterior-medial ventral visual cortex is insensitive to density (object spacing) changes, it does code relative density (object ratio) within an ensemble. Object-ensemble processing in this region may thus depend on high-level visual information, such as object ratio, rather than low-level information, such as spacing/spatial frequency. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of closed-loop neural interface technology in a rat model: combining motor cortex operant conditioning with visual cortex microstimulation.

PubMed

Marzullo, Timothy Charles; Lehmkuhle, Mark J; Gage, Gregory J; Kipke, Daryl R

2010-04-01

Closed-loop neural interface technology that combines neural ensemble decoding with simultaneous electrical microstimulation feedback is hypothesized to improve deep brain stimulation techniques, neuromotor prosthetic applications, and epilepsy treatment. Here we describe our iterative results in a rat model of a sensory and motor neurophysiological feedback control system. Three rats were chronically implanted with microelectrode arrays in both the motor and visual cortices. The rats were subsequently trained over a period of weeks to modulate their motor cortex ensemble unit activity upon delivery of intra-cortical microstimulation (ICMS) of the visual cortex in order to receive a food reward. Rats were given continuous feedback via visual cortex ICMS during the response periods that was representative of the motor cortex ensemble dynamics. Analysis revealed that the feedback provided the animals with indicators of the behavioral trials. At the hardware level, this preparation provides a tractable test model for improving the technology of closed-loop neural devices.

Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korner, Stephan; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Holzapfel, Frank; VanValkenburg, Randal L.

2017-01-01

Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.

Imprinting and Recalling Cortical Ensembles

PubMed Central

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S.; Yuste, Rafael

2017-01-01

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent emergent building blocks of neural circuits. They could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations in visual cortex of awake mice generates artificially induced ensembles which recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexistent ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. PMID:27516599

Experimental Demonstration of Quantum Stationary Light Pulses in an Atomic Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kwang-Kyoon; Cho, Young-Wook; Chough, Young-Tak; Kim, Yoon-Ho

2018-04-01

We report an experimental demonstration of the nonclassical stationary light pulse (SLP) in a cold atomic ensemble. A single collective atomic excitation is created and heralded by detecting a Stokes photon in the spontaneous Raman scattering process. The heralded single atomic excitation is converted into a single stationary optical excitation or the single-photon SLP, whose effective group velocity is zero, effectively forming a trapped single-photon pulse within the cold atomic ensemble. The single-photon SLP is then released from the atomic ensemble as an anti-Stokes photon after a specified trapping time. The second-order correlation measurement between the Stokes and anti-Stokes photons reveals the nonclassical nature of the single-photon SLP. Our work paves the way toward quantum nonlinear optics without a cavity.

Predicting protein function and other biomedical characteristics with heterogeneous ensembles

PubMed Central

Whalen, Sean; Pandey, Om Prakash

2015-01-01

Prediction problems in biomedical sciences, including protein function prediction (PFP), are generally quite difficult. This is due in part to incomplete knowledge of the cellular phenomenon of interest, the appropriateness and data quality of the variables and measurements used for prediction, as well as a lack of consensus regarding the ideal predictor for specific problems. In such scenarios, a powerful approach to improving prediction performance is to construct heterogeneous ensemble predictors that combine the output of diverse individual predictors that capture complementary aspects of the problems and/or datasets. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of such heterogeneous ensembles, derived from stacking and ensemble selection methods, for addressing PFP and other similar biomedical prediction problems. Deeper analysis of these results shows that the superior predictive ability of these methods, especially stacking, can be attributed to their attention to the following aspects of the ensemble learning process: (i) better balance of diversity and performance, (ii) more effective calibration of outputs and (iii) more robust incorporation of additional base predictors. Finally, to make the effective application of heterogeneous ensembles to large complex datasets (big data) feasible, we present DataSink, a distributed ensemble learning framework, and demonstrate its sound scalability using the examined datasets. DataSink is publicly available from https://github.com/shwhalen/datasink. PMID:26342255

Challenges in Visual Analysis of Ensembles

DOE PAGES

Crossno, Patricia

2018-04-12

Modeling physical phenomena through computational simulation increasingly relies on generating a collection of related runs, known as an ensemble. In this paper, we explore the challenges we face in developing analysis and visualization systems for large and complex ensemble data sets, which we seek to understand without having to view the results of every simulation run. Implementing approaches and ideas developed in response to this goal, we demonstrate the analysis of a 15K run material fracturing study using Slycat, our ensemble analysis system.

Challenges in Visual Analysis of Ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crossno, Patricia

Modeling physical phenomena through computational simulation increasingly relies on generating a collection of related runs, known as an ensemble. In this paper, we explore the challenges we face in developing analysis and visualization systems for large and complex ensemble data sets, which we seek to understand without having to view the results of every simulation run. Implementing approaches and ideas developed in response to this goal, we demonstrate the analysis of a 15K run material fracturing study using Slycat, our ensemble analysis system.

Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne

2015-04-01

In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.

Performance analysis of a Principal Component Analysis ensemble classifier for Emotiv headset P300 spellers.

PubMed

Elsawy, Amr S; Eldawlatly, Seif; Taher, Mohamed; Aly, Gamal M

2014-01-01

The current trend to use Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) with mobile devices mandates the development of efficient EEG data processing methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the performance of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ensemble classifier for P300-based spellers. We recorded EEG data from multiple subjects using the Emotiv neuroheadset in the context of a classical oddball P300 speller paradigm. We compare the performance of the proposed ensemble classifier to the performance of traditional feature extraction and classifier methods. Our results demonstrate the capability of the PCA ensemble classifier to classify P300 data recorded using the Emotiv neuroheadset with an average accuracy of 86.29% on cross-validation data. In addition, offline testing of the recorded data reveals an average classification accuracy of 73.3% that is significantly higher than that achieved using traditional methods. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of the parameters of the P300 speller paradigm on the performance of the method.

Photonic quantum state transfer between a cold atomic gas and a crystal.

PubMed

Maring, Nicolas; Farrera, Pau; Kutluer, Kutlu; Mazzera, Margherita; Heinze, Georg; de Riedmatten, Hugues

2017-11-22

Interfacing fundamentally different quantum systems is key to building future hybrid quantum networks. Such heterogeneous networks offer capabilities superior to those of their homogeneous counterparts, as they merge the individual advantages of disparate quantum nodes in a single network architecture. However, few investigations of optical hybrid interconnections have been carried out, owing to fundamental and technological challenges such as wavelength and bandwidth matching of the interfacing photons. Here we report optical quantum interconnection of two disparate matter quantum systems with photon storage capabilities. We show that a quantum state can be transferred faithfully between a cold atomic ensemble and a rare-earth-doped crystal by means of a single photon at 1,552  nanometre telecommunication wavelength, using cascaded quantum frequency conversion. We demonstrate that quantum correlations between a photon and a single collective spin excitation in the cold atomic ensemble can be transferred to the solid-state system. We also show that single-photon time-bin qubits generated in the cold atomic ensemble can be converted, stored and retrieved from the crystal with a conditional qubit fidelity of more than 85 per cent. Our results open up the prospect of optically connecting quantum nodes with different capabilities and represent an important step towards the realization of large-scale hybrid quantum networks.

Entanglement between two spatially separated atomic modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Karsten; Peise, Jan; Lücke, Bernd; Kruse, Ilka; Vitagliano, Giuseppe; Apellaniz, Iagoba; Kleinmann, Matthias; Tóth, Géza; Klempt, Carsten

2018-04-01

Modern quantum technologies in the fields of quantum computing, quantum simulation, and quantum metrology require the creation and control of large ensembles of entangled particles. In ultracold ensembles of neutral atoms, nonclassical states have been generated with mutual entanglement among thousands of particles. The entanglement generation relies on the fundamental particle-exchange symmetry in ensembles of identical particles, which lacks the standard notion of entanglement between clearly definable subsystems. Here, we present the generation of entanglement between two spatially separated clouds by splitting an ensemble of ultracold identical particles prepared in a twin Fock state. Because the clouds can be addressed individually, our experiments open a path to exploit the available entangled states of indistinguishable particles for quantum information applications.

New technologies for examining the role of neuronal ensembles in drug addiction and fear.

PubMed

Cruz, Fabio C; Koya, Eisuke; Guez-Barber, Danielle H; Bossert, Jennifer M; Lupica, Carl R; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T

2013-11-01

Correlational data suggest that learned associations are encoded within neuronal ensembles. However, it has been difficult to prove that neuronal ensembles mediate learned behaviours because traditional pharmacological and lesion methods, and even newer cell type-specific methods, affect both activated and non-activated neurons. In addition, previous studies on synaptic and molecular alterations induced by learning did not distinguish between behaviourally activated and non-activated neurons. Here, we describe three new approaches--Daun02 inactivation, FACS sorting of activated neurons and Fos-GFP transgenic rats--that have been used to selectively target and study activated neuronal ensembles in models of conditioned drug effects and relapse. We also describe two new tools--Fos-tTA transgenic mice and inactivation of CREB-overexpressing neurons--that have been used to study the role of neuronal ensembles in conditioned fear.

Progressive freezing of interacting spins in isolated finite magnetic ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Kakoli; Dupuis, Veronique; Le-Roy, Damien; Deb, Pritam

2017-02-01

Self-organization of magnetic nanoparticles into secondary nanostructures provides an innovative way for designing functional nanomaterials with novel properties, different from the constituent primary nanoparticles as well as their bulk counterparts. Collective magnetic properties of such complex closed packing of magnetic nanoparticles makes them more appealing than the individual magnetic nanoparticles in many technological applications. This work reports the collective magnetic behaviour of magnetic ensembles comprising of single domain Fe3O4 nanoparticles. The present work reveals that the ensemble formation is based on the re-orientation and attachment of the nanoparticles in an iso-oriented fashion at the mesoscale regime. Comprehensive dc magnetic measurements show the prevalence of strong interparticle interactions in the ensembles. Due to the close range organization of primary Fe3O4 nanoparticles in the ensemble, the spins of the individual nanoparticles interact through dipolar interactions as realized from remnant magnetization measurements. Signature of super spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles is observed in the memory studies carried out in field cooled conditions. Progressive freezing of spins in the ensembles is corroborated from the Vogel-Fulcher fit of the susceptibility data. Dynamic scaling of relaxation reasserted slow spin dynamics substantiating cluster spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles.

Visualization and classification of physiological failure modes in ensemble hemorrhage simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Song; Pruett, William Andrew; Hester, Robert

2015-01-01

In an emergency situation such as hemorrhage, doctors need to predict which patients need immediate treatment and care. This task is difficult because of the diverse response to hemorrhage in human population. Ensemble physiological simulations provide a means to sample a diverse range of subjects and may have a better chance of containing the correct solution. However, to reveal the patterns and trends from the ensemble simulation is a challenging task. We have developed a visualization framework for ensemble physiological simulations. The visualization helps users identify trends among ensemble members, classify ensemble member into subpopulations for analysis, and provide prediction to future events by matching a new patient's data to existing ensembles. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the visualization on simulated physiological data. The lessons learned here can be applied to clinically-collected physiological data in the future.

Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-07-01

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

Identification of Nanoparticle Prototypes and Archetypes.

PubMed

Fernandez, Michael; Barnard, Amanda S

2015-12-22

High-throughput (HT) computational characterization of nanomaterials is poised to accelerate novel material breakthroughs. The number of possible nanomaterials is increasing exponentially along with their complexity, and so statistical and information technology will play a fundamental role in rationalizing nanomaterials HT data. We demonstrate that multivariate statistical analysis of heterogeneous ensembles can identify the truly significant nanoparticles and their most relevant properties. Virtual samples of diamond nanoparticles and graphene nanoflakes are characterized using clustering and archetypal analysis, where we find that saturated particles are defined by their geometry, while nonsaturated nanoparticles are defined by their carbon chemistry. At the complex hull of the nanostructure spaces, a combination of complex archetypes can efficiency describe a large number of members of the ensembles, whereas the regular shapes that are typically assumed to be representative can only describe a small set of the most regular morphologies. This approach provides a route toward the characterization of computationally intractable virtual nanomaterial spaces, which can aid nanomaterials discovery in the foreseen big data scenario.

SSEL-ADE: A semi-supervised ensemble learning framework for extracting adverse drug events from social media.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Zhao, Songzheng; Wang, Gang

2018-01-01

With the development of Web 2.0 technology, social media websites have become lucrative but under-explored data sources for extracting adverse drug events (ADEs), which is a serious health problem. Besides ADE, other semantic relation types (e.g., drug indication and beneficial effect) could hold between the drug and adverse event mentions, making ADE relation extraction - distinguishing ADE relationship from other relation types - necessary. However, conducting ADE relation extraction in social media environment is not a trivial task because of the expertise-dependent, time-consuming and costly annotation process, and the feature space's high-dimensionality attributed to intrinsic characteristics of social media data. This study aims to develop a framework for ADE relation extraction using patient-generated content in social media with better performance than that delivered by previous efforts. To achieve the objective, a general semi-supervised ensemble learning framework, SSEL-ADE, was developed. The framework exploited various lexical, semantic, and syntactic features, and integrated ensemble learning and semi-supervised learning. A series of experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of each component of SSEL-ADE and reveal that our proposed framework outperforms most of existing ADE relation extraction methods The SSEL-ADE can facilitate enhanced ADE relation extraction performance, thereby providing more reliable support for pharmacovigilance. Moreover, the proposed semi-supervised ensemble methods have the potential of being applied to effectively deal with other social media-based problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New technologies for examining neuronal ensembles in drug addiction and fear

PubMed Central

Cruz, Fabio C.; Koya, Eisuke; Guez-Barber, Danielle H.; Bossert, Jennifer M.; Lupica, Carl R.; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T.

2015-01-01

Correlational data suggest that learned associations are encoded within neuronal ensembles. However, it has been difficult to prove that neuronal ensembles mediate learned behaviours because traditional pharmacological and lesion methods, and even newer cell type-specific methods, affect both activated and non-activated neurons. Additionally, previous studies on synaptic and molecular alterations induced by learning did not distinguish between behaviourally activated and non-activated neurons. Here, we describe three new approaches—Daun02 inactivation, FACS sorting of activated neurons and c-fos-GFP transgenic rats — that have been used to selectively target and study activated neuronal ensembles in models of conditioned drug effects and relapse. We also describe two new tools — c-fos-tTA mice and inactivation of CREB-overexpressing neurons — that have been used to study the role of neuronal ensembles in conditioned fear. PMID:24088811

A computational pipeline for the development of multi-marker bio-signature panels and ensemble classifiers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? Results The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Conclusion Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway. PMID:23216969

A computational pipeline for the development of multi-marker bio-signature panels and ensemble classifiers.

PubMed

Günther, Oliver P; Chen, Virginia; Freue, Gabriela Cohen; Balshaw, Robert F; Tebbutt, Scott J; Hollander, Zsuzsanna; Takhar, Mandeep; McMaster, W Robert; McManus, Bruce M; Keown, Paul A; Ng, Raymond T

2012-12-08

Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway.

A Roadmap for using Agile Development in a Traditional System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Streiffert, Barbara; Starbird, Thomas

2006-01-01

I. Ensemble Development Group: a) Produces activity planning software for in spacecraft; b) Built on Eclipse Rich Client Platform (open source development and runtime software); c) Funded by multiple sources including the Mars Technology Program; d) Incorporated the use of Agile Development. II. Next Generation Uplink Planning System: a) Researches the Activity Planning and Sequencing Subsystem for Mars Science Laboratory (APSS); b) APSS includes Ensemble, Activity Modeling, Constraint Checking, Command Editing and Sequencing tools plus other uplink generation utilities; c) Funded by the Mars Technology Program; d) Integrates all of the tools for APSS.

Implementing the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm with macroscopic ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenenko, Henry; Byrnes, Tim

2016-05-01

Quantum computing implementations under consideration today typically deal with systems with microscopic degrees of freedom such as photons, ions, cold atoms, and superconducting circuits. The quantum information is stored typically in low-dimensional Hilbert spaces such as qubits, as quantum effects are strongest in such systems. It has, however, been demonstrated that quantum effects can be observed in mesoscopic and macroscopic systems, such as nanomechanical systems and gas ensembles. While few-qubit quantum information demonstrations have been performed with such macroscopic systems, a quantum algorithm showing exponential speedup over classical algorithms is yet to be shown. Here, we show that the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm can be implemented with macroscopic ensembles. The encoding that we use avoids the detrimental effects of decoherence that normally plagues macroscopic implementations. We discuss two mapping procedures which can be chosen depending upon the constraints of the oracle and the experiment. Both methods have an exponential speedup over the classical case, and only require control of the ensembles at the level of the total spin of the ensembles. It is shown that both approaches reproduce the qubit Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm, and are robust under decoherence.

Nine time steps: ultra-fast statistical consistency testing of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v3.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milroy, Daniel J.; Baker, Allison H.; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Jessup, Elizabeth R.

2018-02-01

The Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) suite was developed as an alternative to requiring bitwise identical output for quality assurance. This objective test provides a statistical measurement of consistency between an accepted ensemble created by small initial temperature perturbations and a test set of CESM simulations. In this work, we extend the CESM-ECT suite with an inexpensive and robust test for ensemble consistency that is applied to Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) output after only nine model time steps. We demonstrate that adequate ensemble variability is achieved with instantaneous variable values at the ninth step, despite rapid perturbation growth and heterogeneous variable spread. We refer to this new test as the Ultra-Fast CAM Ensemble Consistency Test (UF-CAM-ECT) and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice, including its ability to detect small-scale events and its applicability to the Community Land Model (CLM). The new ultra-fast test facilitates CESM development, porting, and optimization efforts, particularly when used to complement information from the original CESM-ECT suite of tools.

Real-time demonstration and evaluation of over-the-loop short to medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Arnold, J. R.

2015-12-01

The US National Weather Service River Forecasting Centers are beginning to operationalize short range to medium range ensemble predictions that have been in development for several years. This practice contrasts with the traditional single-value forecast practice at these lead times not only because the ensemble forecasts offer a basis for quantifying forecast uncertainty, but also because the use of ensembles requires a greater degree of automation in the forecast workflow than is currently used. For instance, individual ensemble member forcings cannot (practically) be manually adjusted, a step not uncommon with the current single-value paradigm, thus the forecaster is required to adopt a more 'over-the-loop' role than before. The relative lack of experience among operational forecasters and forecast users (eg, water managers) in the US with over-the-loop approaches motivates the creation of a real-time demonstration and evaluation platform for exploring the potential of over-the-loop workflows to produce usable ensemble short-to-medium range forecasts, as well as long range predictions. We describe the development and early results of such an effort by a collaboration between NCAR and the two water agencies, the US Army Corps of Engineers and the US Bureau of Reclamation. Focusing on small to medium sized headwater basins around the US, and using multi-decade series of ensemble streamflow hindcasts, we also describe early results, assessing the skill of daily-updating, over-the-loop forecasts driven by a set of ensemble atmospheric outputs from the NCEP GEFS for lead times from 1-15 days.

Resonant optical spectroscopy and coherent control of Cr4+ spin ensembles in SiC and GaN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koehl, William

Spins bound to point defects have emerged as an important resource in quantum information and spintronic technologies, especially as new materials systems have been developed that enable robust and precise quantum state control via optical, electronic, or mechanical degrees of freedom. In an effort to broaden the range of materials platforms available to such defect-based quantum technologies, we have recently begun exploring optically active transition metal ion spins doped into common wide-bandgap semiconductors. The spins of such ions are derived in part from unpaired d orbital electron states, suggesting in some cases that they may be portable across multiple materials systems. This in contrast to many vacancy-related defect spins such as the diamond nitrogen vacancy center or silicon carbide divacancy, which are formed primarily from the dangling bond states of the host. Here we demonstrate ensemble optical spin polarization and time-resolved optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) of the S = 1 electronic ground state of chromium (Cr4+) impurities in silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). We find that these impurities possess narrow optical linewidths (<8.5 GHz at cryogenic temperatures) that allow us to optically resolve the magnetic sublevels of the spins even when probing a large ensemble of many ions simultaneously. This enables us to directly polarize and probe the Cr4+ spins using straightforward optical techniques, which we then combine with coherent microwave excitation in order to characterize the dynamical properties of the ensemble. Significantly, these near-infrared emitters also possess exceptionally weak phonon sidebands, ensuring that >73% of the overall optical emission is contained within the defects' zero-phonon lines. These characteristics make the Cr4+ ion system a promising target for further study in the ongoing effort to integrate optically active quantum states within common optoelectronic materials. In collaboration with B. Diler, S. J. Whiteley, A. Bourassa, N. T. Son, E. Janzén, and D. D. Awschalom. This work supported by AFOSR, ARO, NSF MRSEC, the Argonne LDRD Program, LiLi-NFM, and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Embedding Digital Literacies in English Language Teaching: Students' Digital Video Projects as Multimodal Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafner, Christoph A.

2014-01-01

As a result of recent developments in digital technologies, new genres as well as new contexts for communication are emerging. In view of these developments, this article argues that the scope of English language teaching be expanded beyond the traditional focus on speech and writing to the production of multimodal ensembles, drawing on a range of…

Stress-stress fluctuation formula for elastic constants in the NPT ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lips, Dominik; Maass, Philipp

2018-05-01

Several fluctuation formulas are available for calculating elastic constants from equilibrium correlation functions in computer simulations, but the ones available for simulations at constant pressure exhibit slow convergence properties and cannot be used for the determination of local elastic constants. To overcome these drawbacks, we derive a stress-stress fluctuation formula in the NPT ensemble based on known expressions in the NVT ensemble. We validate the formula in the NPT ensemble by calculating elastic constants for the simple nearest-neighbor Lennard-Jones crystal and by comparing the results with those obtained in the NVT ensemble. For both local and bulk elastic constants we find an excellent agreement between the simulated data in the two ensembles. To demonstrate the usefulness of the formula, we apply it to determine the elastic constants of a simulated lipid bilayer.

Multiple-Swarm Ensembles: Improving the Predictive Power and Robustness of Predictive Models and Its Use in Computational Biology.

PubMed

Alves, Pedro; Liu, Shuang; Wang, Daifeng; Gerstein, Mark

2018-01-01

Machine learning is an integral part of computational biology, and has already shown its use in various applications, such as prognostic tests. In the last few years in the non-biological machine learning community, ensembling techniques have shown their power in data mining competitions such as the Netflix challenge; however, such methods have not found wide use in computational biology. In this work, we endeavor to show how ensembling techniques can be applied to practical problems, including problems in the field of bioinformatics, and how they often outperform other machine learning techniques in both predictive power and robustness. Furthermore, we develop a methodology of ensembling, Multi-Swarm Ensemble (MSWE) by using multiple particle swarm optimizations and demonstrate its ability to further enhance the performance of ensembles.

Telecom-Wavelength Atomic Quantum Memory in Optical Fiber for Heralded Polarization Qubits.

PubMed

Jin, Jeongwan; Saglamyurek, Erhan; Puigibert, Marcel lí Grimau; Verma, Varun; Marsili, Francesco; Nam, Sae Woo; Oblak, Daniel; Tittel, Wolfgang

2015-10-02

Polarization-encoded photons at telecommunication wavelengths provide a compelling platform for practical realizations of photonic quantum information technologies due to the ease of performing single qubit manipulations, the availability of polarization-entangled photon-pair sources, and the possibility of leveraging existing fiber-optic links for distributing qubits over long distances. An optical quantum memory compatible with this platform could serve as a building block for these technologies. Here we present the first experimental demonstration of an atomic quantum memory that directly allows for reversible mapping of quantum states encoded in the polarization degree of freedom of a telecom-wavelength photon. We show that heralded polarization qubits at a telecom wavelength are stored and retrieved with near-unity fidelity by implementing the atomic frequency comb protocol in an ensemble of erbium atoms doped into an optical fiber. Despite remaining limitations in our proof-of-principle demonstration such as small storage efficiency and storage time, our broadband light-matter interface reveals the potential for use in future quantum information processing.

Momentum distribution functions in ensembles: the inequivalence of microcannonical and canonical ensembles in a finite ultracold system.

PubMed

Wang, Pei; Xianlong, Gao; Li, Haibin

2013-08-01

It is demonstrated in many thermodynamic textbooks that the equivalence of the different ensembles is achieved in the thermodynamic limit. In this present work we discuss the inequivalence of microcanonical and canonical ensembles in a finite ultracold system at low energies. We calculate the microcanonical momentum distribution function (MDF) in a system of identical fermions (bosons). We find that the microcanonical MDF deviates from the canonical one, which is the Fermi-Dirac (Bose-Einstein) function, in a finite system at low energies where the single-particle density of states and its inverse are finite.

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet-Proulx, Sébastien; Chimi Chiadjeu, Olivier; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; St-Hilaire, André

2017-11-01

Recent work demonstrated the value of water temperature forecasts to improve water resources allocation and highlighted the importance of quantifying their uncertainty adequately. In this study, we perform a multisite cascading ensemble assimilation of discharge and water temperature on the Nechako River (Canada) using particle filters. Hydrological and thermal initial conditions were provided to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled to a thermal module, using ensemble meteorological forecasts as inputs to produce 5 day ensemble thermal forecasts. Results show good performances of the particle filters with improvements of the accuracy of initial conditions by more than 65% compared to simulations without data assimilation for both the hydrological and the thermal component. All thermal forecasts returned continuous ranked probability scores under 0.8 °C when using a set of 40 initial conditions and meteorological forecasts comprising 20 members. A greater contribution of the initial conditions to the total uncertainty of the system for 1-dayforecasts is observed (mean ensemble spread = 1.1 °C) compared to meteorological forcings (mean ensemble spread = 0.6 °C). The inclusion of meteorological uncertainty is critical to maintain reliable forecasts and proper ensemble spread for lead times of 2 days and more. This work demonstrates the ability of the particle filters to properly update the initial conditions of a coupled hydrological and thermal model and offers insights regarding the contribution of two major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in thermal forecasts.

Desynchronization in an ensemble of globally coupled chaotic bursting neuronal oscillators by dynamic delayed feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Yanqiu; Yang, Tingting; Li, Ruixue; Li, Huiyan; Han, Chunxiao; Wang, Jiang; Wei, Xile

2015-09-01

In this paper, we propose a dynamic delayed feedback control approach or desynchronization of chaotic-bursting synchronous activities in an ensemble of globally coupled neuronal oscillators. We demonstrate that the difference signal between an ensemble's mean field and its time delayed state, filtered and fed back to the ensemble, can suppress the self-synchronization in the ensemble. These individual units are decoupled and stabilized at the desired desynchronized states while the stimulation signal reduces to the noise level. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by examples of two different populations of globally coupled chaotic-bursting neurons. The proposed method has potential for mild, effective and demand-controlled therapy of neurological diseases characterized by pathological synchronization.

Constructing better classifier ensemble based on weighted accuracy and diversity measure.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaodong; Wong, Derek F; Chao, Lidia S

2014-01-01

A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases.

Constructing Better Classifier Ensemble Based on Weighted Accuracy and Diversity Measure

PubMed Central

Chao, Lidia S.

2014-01-01

A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases. PMID:24672402

EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei

We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based onmore » ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.« less

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

EFS: an ensemble feature selection tool implemented as R-package and web-application.

PubMed

Neumann, Ursula; Genze, Nikita; Heider, Dominik

2017-01-01

Feature selection methods aim at identifying a subset of features that improve the prediction performance of subsequent classification models and thereby also simplify their interpretability. Preceding studies demonstrated that single feature selection methods can have specific biases, whereas an ensemble feature selection has the advantage to alleviate and compensate for these biases. The software EFS (Ensemble Feature Selection) makes use of multiple feature selection methods and combines their normalized outputs to a quantitative ensemble importance. Currently, eight different feature selection methods have been integrated in EFS, which can be used separately or combined in an ensemble. EFS identifies relevant features while compensating specific biases of single methods due to an ensemble approach. Thereby, EFS can improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability in subsequent binary classification models. EFS can be downloaded as an R-package from CRAN or used via a web application at http://EFS.heiderlab.de.

A further step toward an optimal ensemble of classifiers for peptide classification, a case study: HIV protease.

PubMed

Nanni, Loris; Lumini, Alessandra

2009-01-01

The focuses of this work are: to propose a novel method for building an ensemble of classifiers for peptide classification based on substitution matrices; to show the importance to select a proper set of the parameters of the classifiers that build the ensemble of learning systems. The HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem is here studied. The results obtained by a blind testing protocol are reported, the comparison with other state-of-the-art approaches, based on ensemble of classifiers, allows to quantify the performance improvement obtained by the systems proposed in this paper. The simulation based on experimentally determined protease cleavage data has demonstrated the success of these new ensemble algorithms. Particularly interesting it is to note that also if the HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem is considered linearly separable we obtain the best performance using an ensemble of non-linear classifiers.

Dynamical predictive power of the generalized Gibbs ensemble revealed in a second quench.

PubMed

Zhang, J M; Cui, F C; Hu, Jiangping

2012-04-01

We show that a quenched and relaxed completely integrable system is hardly distinguishable from the corresponding generalized Gibbs ensemble in a dynamical sense. To be specific, the response of the quenched and relaxed system to a second quench can be accurately reproduced by using the generalized Gibbs ensemble as a substitute. Remarkably, as demonstrated with the transverse Ising model and the hard-core bosons in one dimension, not only the steady values but even the transient, relaxation dynamics of the physical variables can be accurately reproduced by using the generalized Gibbs ensemble as a pseudoinitial state. This result is an important complement to the previously established result that a quenched and relaxed system is hardly distinguishable from the generalized Gibbs ensemble in a static sense. The relevance of the generalized Gibbs ensemble in the nonequilibrium dynamics of completely integrable systems is then greatly strengthened.

Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

2016-12-01

We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

Reducing Risk of Noise-Induced Hearing Loss in Collegiate Music Ensembles Using Ambient Technology.

PubMed

Powell, Jason; Chesky, Kris

2017-09-01

Student musicians are at risk for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) as they develop skills and perform during instructional activities. Studies using longitudinal dosimeter data show that pedagogical procedures and instructor behaviors are highly predictive of NIHL risk, thus implying the need for innovative approaches to increase instructor competency in managing instructional activities without interfering with artistic and academic freedom. Ambient information systems, an emerging trend in human-computer interaction that infuses psychological behavioral theories into technologies, can help construct informative risk-regulating systems. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of introducing an ambient information system into the ensemble setting. The system used two ambient displays and a counterbalanced within-subjects treatment study design with six jazz ensemble instructors to determine if the system could induce a behavior change that alters trends in measures resulting from dosimeter data. This study assessed efficacy using time series analysis to determine changes in eight statistical measures of behavior over a 9-wk period. Analysis showed that the system was effective, as all instructors showed changes in a combination of measures. This study is in an important step in developing non-interfering technology to reduce NIHL among academic musicians.

Generation, storage, and retrieval of nonclassical states of light using atomic ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisaman, Matthew D.

This thesis presents the experimental demonstration of several novel methods for generating, storing, and retrieving nonclassical states of light using atomic ensembles, and describes applications of these methods to frequency-tunable single-photon generation, single-photon memory, quantum networks, and long-distance quantum communication. We first demonstrate emission of quantum-mechanically correlated pulses of light with a time delay between the pulses that is coherently controlled by utilizing 87Rb atoms. The experiment is based on Raman scattering, which produces correlated pairs of excited atoms and photons, followed by coherent conversion of the atomic states into a different photon field after a controllable delay. We then describe experiments demonstrating a novel approach for conditionally generating nonclassical pulses of light with controllable photon numbers, propagation direction, timing, and pulse shapes. We observe nonclassical correlations in relative photon number between correlated pairs of photons, and create few-photon light pulses with sub-Poissonian photon-number statistics via conditional detection on one field of the pair. Spatio-temporal control over the pulses is obtained by exploiting long-lived coherent memory for photon states and electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) in an optically dense atomic medium. Finally, we demonstrate the use of EIT for the controllable generation, transmission, and storage of single photons with tunable frequency, timing, and bandwidth. To this end, we study the interaction of single photons produced in a "source" ensemble of 87Rb atoms at room temperature with another "target" ensemble. This allows us to simultaneously probe the spectral and quantum statistical properties of narrow-bandwidth single-photon pulses, revealing that their quantum nature is preserved under EIT propagation and storage. We measure the time delay associated with the reduced group velocity of the single-photon pulses and report observations of their storage and retrieval. Together these experiments utilize atomic ensembles to realize a narrow-bandwidth single-photon source, single-photon memory that preserves the quantum nature of the single photons, and a primitive quantum network comprised of two atomic-ensemble quantum memories connected by a single photon in an optical fiber. Each of these experimental demonstrations represents an essential element for the realization of long-distance quantum communication.

Ensemble Grouping Strategies for Embedded Stochastic Collocation Methods Applied to Anisotropic Diffusion Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Elia, M.; Edwards, H. C.; Hu, J.

Previous work has demonstrated that propagating groups of samples, called ensembles, together through forward simulations can dramatically reduce the aggregate cost of sampling-based uncertainty propagation methods [E. Phipps, M. D'Elia, H. C. Edwards, M. Hoemmen, J. Hu, and S. Rajamanickam, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 39 (2017), pp. C162--C193]. However, critical to the success of this approach when applied to challenging problems of scientific interest is the grouping of samples into ensembles to minimize the total computational work. For example, the total number of linear solver iterations for ensemble systems may be strongly influenced by which samples form the ensemble whenmore » applying iterative linear solvers to parameterized and stochastic linear systems. In this paper we explore sample grouping strategies for local adaptive stochastic collocation methods applied to PDEs with uncertain input data, in particular canonical anisotropic diffusion problems where the diffusion coefficient is modeled by truncated Karhunen--Loève expansions. Finally, we demonstrate that a measure of the total anisotropy of the diffusion coefficient is a good surrogate for the number of linear solver iterations for each sample and therefore provides a simple and effective metric for grouping samples.« less

Ensemble Grouping Strategies for Embedded Stochastic Collocation Methods Applied to Anisotropic Diffusion Problems

DOE PAGES

D'Elia, M.; Edwards, H. C.; Hu, J.; ...

2018-01-18

Previous work has demonstrated that propagating groups of samples, called ensembles, together through forward simulations can dramatically reduce the aggregate cost of sampling-based uncertainty propagation methods [E. Phipps, M. D'Elia, H. C. Edwards, M. Hoemmen, J. Hu, and S. Rajamanickam, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 39 (2017), pp. C162--C193]. However, critical to the success of this approach when applied to challenging problems of scientific interest is the grouping of samples into ensembles to minimize the total computational work. For example, the total number of linear solver iterations for ensemble systems may be strongly influenced by which samples form the ensemble whenmore » applying iterative linear solvers to parameterized and stochastic linear systems. In this paper we explore sample grouping strategies for local adaptive stochastic collocation methods applied to PDEs with uncertain input data, in particular canonical anisotropic diffusion problems where the diffusion coefficient is modeled by truncated Karhunen--Loève expansions. Finally, we demonstrate that a measure of the total anisotropy of the diffusion coefficient is a good surrogate for the number of linear solver iterations for each sample and therefore provides a simple and effective metric for grouping samples.« less

Enhancing optical nonreciprocity by an atomic ensemble in two coupled cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, L. N.; Wang, Z. H.; Li, Yong

2018-05-01

We study the optical nonreciprocal propagation in an optical molecule of two coupled cavities with one of them interacting with a two-level atomic ensemble. The effect of increasing the number of atoms on the optical isolation ratio of the system is studied. We demonstrate that the significant nonlinearity supplied by the coupling of the atomic ensemble with the cavity leads to the realization of greatly-enhanced optical nonreciprocity compared with the case of single atom.

Quantum Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fantoni, Riccardo, E-mail: rfantoni@ts.infn.it; Moroni, Saverio, E-mail: moroni@democritos.it

We present a path integral Monte Carlo method which is the full quantum analogue of the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo method of Panagiotopoulos to study the gas-liquid coexistence line of a classical fluid. Unlike previous extensions of Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo to include quantum effects, our scheme is viable even for systems with strong quantum delocalization in the degenerate regime of temperature. This is demonstrated by an illustrative application to the gas-superfluid transition of {sup 4}He in two dimensions.

A polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system for efficient parameter inference and robust uncertainty assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Huang, W.

2015-11-01

This paper presents a polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system (PCEHPS) for an efficient and robust uncertainty assessment of model parameters and predictions, in which possibilistic reasoning is infused into probabilistic parameter inference with simultaneous consideration of randomness and fuzziness. The PCEHPS is developed through a two-stage factorial polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework, which consists of an ensemble of PCEs to approximate the behavior of the hydrologic model, significantly speeding up the exhaustive sampling of the parameter space. Multiple hypothesis testing is then conducted to construct an ensemble of reduced-dimensionality PCEs with only the most influential terms, which is meaningful for achieving uncertainty reduction and further acceleration of parameter inference. The PCEHPS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. A detailed comparison between the HYMOD hydrologic model, the ensemble of PCEs, and the ensemble of reduced PCEs is performed in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal temporal and spatial variations in parameter sensitivities due to the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems, and the effects (magnitude and direction) of parametric interactions depending on different hydrological metrics. The case study demonstrates that the PCEHPS is capable not only of capturing both expert knowledge and probabilistic information in the calibration process, but also of implementing an acceleration of more than 10 times faster than the hydrologic model without compromising the predictive accuracy.

Coherently coupling distinct spin ensembles through a high-Tc superconducting resonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirri, A.; Bonizzoni, C.; Troiani, F.; Buccheri, N.; Beverina, L.; Cassinese, A.; Affronte, M.

2016-06-01

The problem of coupling multiple spin ensembles through cavity photons is revisited by using (3,5-dichloro-4-pyridyl)bis(2,4,6-trichlorophenyl)methyl (PyBTM) organic radicals and a high-Tc superconducting coplanar resonator. An exceptionally strong coupling is obtained and up to three spin ensembles are simultaneously coupled. The ensembles are made physically distinguishable by chemically varying the g factor and by exploiting the inhomogeneities of the applied magnetic field. The coherent mixing of the spin and field modes is demonstrated by the observed multiple anticrossing, along with the simulations performed within the input-output formalism, and quantified by suitable entropic measures.

Ensemble Methods for Classification of Physical Activities from Wrist Accelerometry.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Alok Kumar; Tjondronegoro, Dian; Chandran, Vinod; Trost, Stewart G

2017-09-01

To investigate whether the use of ensemble learning algorithms improve physical activity recognition accuracy compared to the single classifier algorithms, and to compare the classification accuracy achieved by three conventional ensemble machine learning methods (bagging, boosting, random forest) and a custom ensemble model comprising four algorithms commonly used for activity recognition (binary decision tree, k nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and neural network). The study used three independent data sets that included wrist-worn accelerometer data. For each data set, a four-step classification framework consisting of data preprocessing, feature extraction, normalization and feature selection, and classifier training and testing was implemented. For the custom ensemble, decisions from the single classifiers were aggregated using three decision fusion methods: weighted majority vote, naïve Bayes combination, and behavior knowledge space combination. Classifiers were cross-validated using leave-one subject out cross-validation and compared on the basis of average F1 scores. In all three data sets, ensemble learning methods consistently outperformed the individual classifiers. Among the conventional ensemble methods, random forest models provided consistently high activity recognition; however, the custom ensemble model using weighted majority voting demonstrated the highest classification accuracy in two of the three data sets. Combining multiple individual classifiers using conventional or custom ensemble learning methods can improve activity recognition accuracy from wrist-worn accelerometer data.

On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

2017-12-01

Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

An efficient ensemble learning method for gene microarray classification.

PubMed

Osareh, Alireza; Shadgar, Bita

2013-01-01

The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.

A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics

PubMed Central

Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.

2011-01-01

The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486

Distinct cognitive mechanisms involved in the processing of single objects and object ensembles

PubMed Central

Cant, Jonathan S.; Sun, Sol Z.; Xu, Yaoda

2015-01-01

Behavioral research has demonstrated that the shape and texture of single objects can be processed independently. Similarly, neuroimaging results have shown that an object's shape and texture are processed in distinct brain regions with shape in the lateral occipital area and texture in parahippocampal cortex. Meanwhile, objects are not always seen in isolation and are often grouped together as an ensemble. We recently showed that the processing of ensembles also involves parahippocampal cortex and that the shape and texture of ensemble elements are processed together within this region. These neural data suggest that the independence seen between shape and texture in single-object perception would not be observed in object-ensemble perception. Here we tested this prediction by examining whether observers could attend to the shape of ensemble elements while ignoring changes in an unattended texture feature and vice versa. Across six behavioral experiments, we replicated previous findings of independence between shape and texture in single-object perception. In contrast, we observed that changes in an unattended ensemble feature negatively impacted the processing of an attended ensemble feature only when ensemble features were attended globally. When they were attended locally, thereby making ensemble processing similar to single-object processing, interference was abolished. Overall, these findings confirm previous neuroimaging results and suggest that distinct cognitive mechanisms may be involved in single-object and object-ensemble perception. Additionally, they show that the scope of visual attention plays a critical role in determining which type of object processing (ensemble or single object) is engaged by the visual system. PMID:26360156

Effects of ensemble and summary displays on interpretations of geospatial uncertainty data.

PubMed

Padilla, Lace M; Ruginski, Ian T; Creem-Regehr, Sarah H

2017-01-01

Ensemble and summary displays are two widely used methods to represent visual-spatial uncertainty; however, there is disagreement about which is the most effective technique to communicate uncertainty to the general public. Visualization scientists create ensemble displays by plotting multiple data points on the same Cartesian coordinate plane. Despite their use in scientific practice, it is more common in public presentations to use visualizations of summary displays, which scientists create by plotting statistical parameters of the ensemble members. While prior work has demonstrated that viewers make different decisions when viewing summary and ensemble displays, it is unclear what components of the displays lead to diverging judgments. This study aims to compare the salience of visual features - or visual elements that attract bottom-up attention - as one possible source of diverging judgments made with ensemble and summary displays in the context of hurricane track forecasts. We report that salient visual features of both ensemble and summary displays influence participant judgment. Specifically, we find that salient features of summary displays of geospatial uncertainty can be misunderstood as displaying size information. Further, salient features of ensemble displays evoke judgments that are indicative of accurate interpretations of the underlying probability distribution of the ensemble data. However, when participants use ensemble displays to make point-based judgments, they may overweight individual ensemble members in their decision-making process. We propose that ensemble displays are a promising alternative to summary displays in a geospatial context but that decisions about visualization methods should be informed by the viewer's task.

An Ensemble-Based Smoother with Retrospectively Updated Weights for Highly Nonlinear Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, T. M.; Turmon, M. J.; Jewell, J. B.; Ghil, M.

2006-01-01

Monte Carlo computational methods have been introduced into data assimilation for nonlinear systems in order to alleviate the computational burden of updating and propagating the full probability distribution. By propagating an ensemble of representative states, algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the resampled particle filter (RPF) rely on the existing modeling infrastructure to approximate the distribution based on the evolution of this ensemble. This work presents an ensemble-based smoother that is applicable to the Monte Carlo filtering schemes like EnKF and RPF. At the minor cost of retrospectively updating a set of weights for ensemble members, this smoother has demonstrated superior capabilities in state tracking for two highly nonlinear problems: the double-well potential and trivariate Lorenz systems. The algorithm does not require retrospective adaptation of the ensemble members themselves, and it is thus suited to a streaming operational mode. The accuracy of the proposed backward-update scheme in estimating non-Gaussian distributions is evaluated by comparison to the more accurate estimates provided by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation for the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, N.; Bojarova, J.; Vignes, O.

2014-02-01

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation has been developed on top of the HIRLAM variational data assimilation. It provides the possibility of applying a flow-dependent background error covariance model during the data assimilation at the same time as full rank characteristics of the variational data assimilation are preserved. The hybrid formulation is based on an augmentation of the assimilation control variable with localised weights to be assigned to a set of ensemble member perturbations (deviations from the ensemble mean). The flow-dependency of the hybrid assimilation is demonstrated in single simulated observation impact studies and the improved performance of the hybrid assimilation in comparison with pure 3-dimensional variational as well as pure ensemble assimilation is also proven in real observation assimilation experiments. The performance of the hybrid assimilation is comparable to the performance of the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. The sensitivity to various parameters of the hybrid assimilation scheme and the sensitivity to the applied ensemble generation techniques are also examined. In particular, the inclusion of ensemble perturbations with a lagged validity time has been examined with encouraging results.

Exploring diversity in ensemble classification: Applications in large area land cover mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, Andrew; Boukir, Samia

2017-07-01

Ensemble classifiers, such as random forests, are now commonly applied in the field of remote sensing, and have been shown to perform better than single classifier systems, resulting in reduced generalisation error. Diversity across the members of ensemble classifiers is known to have a strong influence on classification performance - whereby classifier errors are uncorrelated and more uniformly distributed across ensemble members. The relationship between ensemble diversity and classification performance has not yet been fully explored in the fields of information science and machine learning and has never been examined in the field of remote sensing. This study is a novel exploration of ensemble diversity and its link to classification performance, applied to a multi-class canopy cover classification problem using random forests and multisource remote sensing and ancillary GIS data, across seven million hectares of diverse dry-sclerophyll dominated public forests in Victoria Australia. A particular emphasis is placed on analysing the relationship between ensemble diversity and ensemble margin - two key concepts in ensemble learning. The main novelty of our work is on boosting diversity by emphasizing the contribution of lower margin instances used in the learning process. Exploring the influence of tree pruning on diversity is also a new empirical analysis that contributes to a better understanding of ensemble performance. Results reveal insights into the trade-off between ensemble classification accuracy and diversity, and through the ensemble margin, demonstrate how inducing diversity by targeting lower margin training samples is a means of achieving better classifier performance for more difficult or rarer classes and reducing information redundancy in classification problems. Our findings inform strategies for collecting training data and designing and parameterising ensemble classifiers, such as random forests. This is particularly important in large area remote sensing applications, for which training data is costly and resource intensive to collect.

Scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei Feng; Yu Yafei; Feng Mang

2009-10-15

We present a scheme for scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons. Using the Rydberg blockade, we encode the qubits in the collective atomic states, which could be manipulated fast and easily due to the enhanced interaction in comparison to the single-atom case. We demonstrate that our proposed gating could be applied to generation of two-dimensional cluster states for measurement-based quantum computation. Moreover, the atomic ensembles also function as quantum repeaters useful for long-distance quantum state transfer. We show the possibility of our scheme to work in bad cavity or in weak coupling regime, which could muchmore » relax the experimental requirement. The efficient coherent operations on the ensemble qubits enable our scheme to be switchable between quantum computation and quantum communication using atomic ensembles.« less

Glyph-based analysis of multimodal directional distributions in vector field ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarema, Mihaela; Demir, Ismail; Kehrer, Johannes; Westermann, Rüdiger

2015-04-01

Ensemble simulations are increasingly often performed in the geosciences in order to study the uncertainty and variability of model predictions. Describing ensemble data by mean and standard deviation can be misleading in case of multimodal distributions. We present first results of a glyph-based visualization of multimodal directional distributions in 2D and 3D vector ensemble data. Directional information on the circle/sphere is modeled using mixtures of probability density functions (pdfs), which enables us to characterize the distributions with relatively few parameters. The resulting mixture models are represented by 2D and 3D lobular glyphs showing direction, spread and strength of each principal mode of the distributions. A 3D extension of our approach is realized by means of an efficient GPU rendering technique. We demonstrate our method in the context of ensemble weather simulations.

Developing Novel Frameworks for Many-Body Ensembles

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-17

RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 77 Massachusetts Ave. NE18-901 Cambridge , MA 02139 -4307 15-Jul-2015...of-equilibrium dynamics and to estimate prob- Page 4 of 9 Figure 2: Illustration of the dendro- gram representation. The rectangle on the left shows...isolation as illustrated in Figure 4. Starting from random initial conditions, an ensemble of particle pairs was simulated to establish the long-time

Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellsky, Thomas, E-mail: bellskyt@asu.edu; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-15

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly locatedmore » observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.« less

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Dong, Jiarul; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Mocko, David; Gomez, Breogan

2017-01-01

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

Peculiarities of use of ECOC and AdaBoost based classifiers for thematic processing of hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dementev, A. O.; Dmitriev, E. V.; Kozoderov, V. V.; Egorov, V. D.

2017-10-01

Hyperspectral imaging is up-to-date promising technology widely applied for the accurate thematic mapping. The presence of a large number of narrow survey channels allows us to use subtle differences in spectral characteristics of objects and to make a more detailed classification than in the case of using standard multispectral data. The difficulties encountered in the processing of hyperspectral images are usually associated with the redundancy of spectral information which leads to the problem of the curse of dimensionality. Methods currently used for recognizing objects on multispectral and hyperspectral images are usually based on standard base supervised classification algorithms of various complexity. Accuracy of these algorithms can be significantly different depending on considered classification tasks. In this paper we study the performance of ensemble classification methods for the problem of classification of the forest vegetation. Error correcting output codes and boosting are tested on artificial data and real hyperspectral images. It is demonstrates, that boosting gives more significant improvement when used with simple base classifiers. The accuracy in this case in comparable the error correcting output code (ECOC) classifier with Gaussian kernel SVM base algorithm. However the necessity of boosting ECOC with Gaussian kernel SVM is questionable. It is demonstrated, that selected ensemble classifiers allow us to recognize forest species with high enough accuracy which can be compared with ground-based forest inventory data.

Exploring size and state dynamics in CdSe quantum dots using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Caram, Justin R.; Zheng, Haibin; Dahlberg, Peter D.; Rolczynski, Brian S.; Griffin, Graham B.; Dolzhnikov, Dmitriy S.; Talapin, Dmitri V.; Engel, Gregory S.

2014-01-01

Development of optoelectronic technologies based on quantum dots depends on measuring, optimizing, and ultimately predicting charge carrier dynamics in the nanocrystal. In such systems, size inhomogeneity and the photoexcited population distribution among various excitonic states have distinct effects on electron and hole relaxation, which are difficult to distinguish spectroscopically. Two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy can help to untangle these effects by resolving excitation energy and subsequent nonlinear response in a single experiment. Using a filament-generated continuum as a pump and probe source, we collect two-dimensional spectra with sufficient spectral bandwidth to follow dynamics upon excitation of the lowest three optical transitions in a polydisperse ensemble of colloidal CdSe quantum dots. We first compare to prior transient absorption studies to confirm excitation-state-dependent dynamics such as increased surface-trapping upon excitation of hot electrons. Second, we demonstrate fast band-edge electron-hole pair solvation by ligand and phonon modes, as the ensemble relaxes to the photoluminescent state on a sub-picosecond time-scale. Third, we find that static disorder due to size polydispersity dominates the nonlinear response upon excitation into the hot electron manifold; this broadening mechanism stands in contrast to that of the band-edge exciton. Finally, we demonstrate excitation-energy dependent hot-carrier relaxation rates, and we describe how two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy can complement other transient nonlinear techniques. PMID:24588185

Locally Weighted Ensemble Clustering.

PubMed

Huang, Dong; Wang, Chang-Dong; Lai, Jian-Huang

2018-05-01

Due to its ability to combine multiple base clusterings into a probably better and more robust clustering, the ensemble clustering technique has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. Despite the significant success, one limitation to most of the existing ensemble clustering methods is that they generally treat all base clusterings equally regardless of their reliability, which makes them vulnerable to low-quality base clusterings. Although some efforts have been made to (globally) evaluate and weight the base clusterings, yet these methods tend to view each base clustering as an individual and neglect the local diversity of clusters inside the same base clustering. It remains an open problem how to evaluate the reliability of clusters and exploit the local diversity in the ensemble to enhance the consensus performance, especially, in the case when there is no access to data features or specific assumptions on data distribution. To address this, in this paper, we propose a novel ensemble clustering approach based on ensemble-driven cluster uncertainty estimation and local weighting strategy. In particular, the uncertainty of each cluster is estimated by considering the cluster labels in the entire ensemble via an entropic criterion. A novel ensemble-driven cluster validity measure is introduced, and a locally weighted co-association matrix is presented to serve as a summary for the ensemble of diverse clusters. With the local diversity in ensembles exploited, two novel consensus functions are further proposed. Extensive experiments on a variety of real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art.

Ensemble assimilation of ARGO temperature profile, sea surface temperature, and altimetric satellite data into an eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Candille, G.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.

2015-07-01

Sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Sixty ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. An incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with independent/semiindependent observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations, in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centered random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analyzed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted.

Designing Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning at Work for Rural It Workers: Learning Ensembles and Geographic Isolation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goggins, Sean P.

2014-01-01

This paper presents the results of a 9-month ethnographic and action research study of rural technology workers where computer support for collaborative learning through workplace technologies was introduced to a US-based technology firm. Throughout the implementation of this support and participation, issues related to geographic isolation are…

Cases, Simulacra, and Semantic Web Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carmichael, P.; Tscholl, M.

2013-01-01

"Ensemble" is an interdisciplinary research and development project exploring the potential role of emerging Semantic Web technologies in case-based learning across learning environments in higher education. Empirical findings have challenged the claim that cases "bring reality into the classroom" and that this, in turn, might…

New Styles, New Technologies, New Possibilities in Jazz.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuzmich, John, Jr.

1989-01-01

Focuses on the growth of jazz-related ensembles and jazz education. Covers trends that parallel technological developments including electronic keyboards, Musical Instrument Digital Interface (MIDI) systems, the computer, computer assisted instruction, interactive video, and the compact disc. Urges teachers to update their knowledge and experience…

Ensembl variation resources

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org. PMID:20459805

Time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensembles in open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Florian; Lenarčič, Zala; Rosch, Achim

2018-04-01

Generalized Gibbs ensembles have been used as powerful tools to describe the steady state of integrable many-particle quantum systems after a sudden change of the Hamiltonian. Here, we demonstrate numerically that they can be used for a much broader class of problems. We consider integrable systems in the presence of weak perturbations which break both integrability and drive the system to a state far from equilibrium. Under these conditions, we show that the steady state and the time evolution on long timescales can be accurately described by a (truncated) generalized Gibbs ensemble with time-dependent Lagrange parameters, determined from simple rate equations. We compare the numerically exact time evolutions of density matrices for small systems with a theory based on block-diagonal density matrices (diagonal ensemble) and a time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensemble containing only a small number of approximately conserved quantities, using the one-dimensional Heisenberg model with perturbations described by Lindblad operators as an example.

Phase-selective entrainment of nonlinear oscillator ensembles

DOE PAGES

Zlotnik, Anatoly V.; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, Istvan Z.; ...

2016-03-18

The ability to organize and finely manipulate the hierarchy and timing of dynamic processes is important for understanding and influencing brain functions, sleep and metabolic cycles, and many other natural phenomena. However, establishing spatiotemporal structures in biological oscillator ensembles is a challenging task that requires controlling large collections of complex nonlinear dynamical units. In this report, we present a method to design entrainment signals that create stable phase patterns in ensembles of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators without using state feedback information. We demonstrate the approach using experiments with electrochemical reactions on multielectrode arrays, in which we selectively assign ensemble subgroups intomore » spatiotemporal patterns with multiple phase clusters. As a result, the experimentally confirmed mechanism elucidates the connection between the phases and natural frequencies of a collection of dynamical elements, the spatial and temporal information that is encoded within this ensemble, and how external signals can be used to retrieve this information.« less

Multiple-instance ensemble learning for hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ergul, Ugur; Bilgin, Gokhan

2017-10-01

An ensemble framework for multiple-instance (MI) learning (MIL) is introduced for use in hyperspectral images (HSIs) by inspiring the bagging (bootstrap aggregation) method in ensemble learning. Ensemble-based bagging is performed by a small percentage of training samples, and MI bags are formed by a local windowing process with variable window sizes on selected instances. In addition to bootstrap aggregation, random subspace is another method used to diversify base classifiers. The proposed method is implemented using four MIL classification algorithms. The classifier model learning phase is carried out with MI bags, and the estimation phase is performed over single-test instances. In the experimental part of the study, two different HSIs that have ground-truth information are used, and comparative results are demonstrated with state-of-the-art classification methods. In general, the MI ensemble approach produces more compact results in terms of both diversity and error compared to equipollent non-MIL algorithms.

Quantum Ensemble Classification: A Sampling-Based Learning Control Approach.

PubMed

Chen, Chunlin; Dong, Daoyi; Qi, Bo; Petersen, Ian R; Rabitz, Herschel

2017-06-01

Quantum ensemble classification (QEC) has significant applications in discrimination of atoms (or molecules), separation of isotopes, and quantum information extraction. However, quantum mechanics forbids deterministic discrimination among nonorthogonal states. The classification of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles is very challenging, since there exist variations in the parameters characterizing the members within different classes. In this paper, we recast QEC as a supervised quantum learning problem. A systematic classification methodology is presented by using a sampling-based learning control (SLC) approach for quantum discrimination. The classification task is accomplished via simultaneously steering members belonging to different classes to their corresponding target states (e.g., mutually orthogonal states). First, a new discrimination method is proposed for two similar quantum systems. Then, an SLC method is presented for QEC. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the binary classification of two-level quantum ensembles and the multiclass classification of multilevel quantum ensembles.

On the statistical equivalence of restrained-ensemble simulations with the maximum entropy method

PubMed Central

Roux, Benoît; Weare, Jonathan

2013-01-01

An issue of general interest in computer simulations is to incorporate information from experiments into a structural model. An important caveat in pursuing this goal is to avoid corrupting the resulting model with spurious and arbitrary biases. While the problem of biasing thermodynamic ensembles can be formulated rigorously using the maximum entropy method introduced by Jaynes, the approach can be cumbersome in practical applications with the need to determine multiple unknown coefficients iteratively. A popular alternative strategy to incorporate the information from experiments is to rely on restrained-ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. However, the fundamental validity of this computational strategy remains in question. Here, it is demonstrated that the statistical distribution produced by restrained-ensemble simulations is formally consistent with the maximum entropy method of Jaynes. This clarifies the underlying conditions under which restrained-ensemble simulations will yield results that are consistent with the maximum entropy method. PMID:23464140

Phase-selective entrainment of nonlinear oscillator ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zlotnik, Anatoly V.; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, Istvan Z.

The ability to organize and finely manipulate the hierarchy and timing of dynamic processes is important for understanding and influencing brain functions, sleep and metabolic cycles, and many other natural phenomena. However, establishing spatiotemporal structures in biological oscillator ensembles is a challenging task that requires controlling large collections of complex nonlinear dynamical units. In this report, we present a method to design entrainment signals that create stable phase patterns in ensembles of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators without using state feedback information. We demonstrate the approach using experiments with electrochemical reactions on multielectrode arrays, in which we selectively assign ensemble subgroups intomore » spatiotemporal patterns with multiple phase clusters. As a result, the experimentally confirmed mechanism elucidates the connection between the phases and natural frequencies of a collection of dynamical elements, the spatial and temporal information that is encoded within this ensemble, and how external signals can be used to retrieve this information.« less

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

PubMed

LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

2016-05-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning

PubMed Central

LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J.; Peterson, Maya

2016-01-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree. PMID:27227721

Phase-selective entrainment of nonlinear oscillator ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlotnik, Anatoly; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, István Z.; Li-Shin, Jr.

2016-03-01

The ability to organize and finely manipulate the hierarchy and timing of dynamic processes is important for understanding and influencing brain functions, sleep and metabolic cycles, and many other natural phenomena. However, establishing spatiotemporal structures in biological oscillator ensembles is a challenging task that requires controlling large collections of complex nonlinear dynamical units. In this report, we present a method to design entrainment signals that create stable phase patterns in ensembles of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators without using state feedback information. We demonstrate the approach using experiments with electrochemical reactions on multielectrode arrays, in which we selectively assign ensemble subgroups into spatiotemporal patterns with multiple phase clusters. The experimentally confirmed mechanism elucidates the connection between the phases and natural frequencies of a collection of dynamical elements, the spatial and temporal information that is encoded within this ensemble, and how external signals can be used to retrieve this information.

Coherent Spin Control at the Quantum Level in an Ensemble-Based Optical Memory.

PubMed

Jobez, Pierre; Laplane, Cyril; Timoney, Nuala; Gisin, Nicolas; Ferrier, Alban; Goldner, Philippe; Afzelius, Mikael

2015-06-12

Long-lived quantum memories are essential components of a long-standing goal of remote distribution of entanglement in quantum networks. These can be realized by storing the quantum states of light as single-spin excitations in atomic ensembles. However, spin states are often subjected to different dephasing processes that limit the storage time, which in principle could be overcome using spin-echo techniques. Theoretical studies suggest this to be challenging due to unavoidable spontaneous emission noise in ensemble-based quantum memories. Here, we demonstrate spin-echo manipulation of a mean spin excitation of 1 in a large solid-state ensemble, generated through storage of a weak optical pulse. After a storage time of about 1 ms we optically read-out the spin excitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. Our results pave the way for long-duration optical quantum storage using spin-echo techniques for any ensemble-based memory.

Embedded feature ranking for ensemble MLP classifiers.

PubMed

Windeatt, Terry; Duangsoithong, Rakkrit; Smith, Raymond

2011-06-01

A feature ranking scheme for multilayer perceptron (MLP) ensembles is proposed, along with a stopping criterion based upon the out-of-bootstrap estimate. To solve multi-class problems feature ranking is combined with modified error-correcting output coding. Experimental results on benchmark data demonstrate the versatility of the MLP base classifier in removing irrelevant features.

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.; Valba, O.

2017-07-01

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the ‘Lifshitz singularity’ emerging in the one-dimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However, the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, reflecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of an ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

DOE PAGES

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.; ...

2017-07-11

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the \\Lifshitz singularity" emerging in the onedimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However,more » the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, re ecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.« less

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the \\Lifshitz singularity" emerging in the onedimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However,more » the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, re ecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.« less

Mode locking of electron spin coherences in singly charged quantum dots.

PubMed

Greilich, A; Yakovlev, D R; Shabaev, A; Efros, Al L; Yugova, I A; Oulton, R; Stavarache, V; Reuter, D; Wieck, A; Bayer, M

2006-07-21

The fast dephasing of electron spins in an ensemble of quantum dots is detrimental for applications in quantum information processing. We show here that dephasing can be overcome by using a periodic train of light pulses to synchronize the phases of the precessing spins, and we demonstrate this effect in an ensemble of singly charged (In,Ga)As/GaAs quantum dots. This mode locking leads to constructive interference of contributions to Faraday rotation and presents potential applications based on robust quantum coherence within an ensemble of dots.

Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach.

PubMed

Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

2017-08-17

Thermostatically controlled loads, e.g., air conditioners and heaters, are by far the most widespread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control - changing from on to off, and vice versa, depending on temperature. We considered aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble, where the devices operate following the same dynamics, subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. Using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, we analyzed how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and established a relationship between the relaxation and the statistics of the probability flux associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off, and continuous temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive the spectrum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trends and the speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g., forced temporary switching off aimed at utilizing the flexibility of the ensemble to provide "demand response" services to change consumption temporarily to balance a larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.

Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach

DOE PAGES

Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

2017-01-17

Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxationmore » and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.« less

Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir

Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxationmore » and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.« less

Stochastic Forcing for High-Resolution Regional and Global Ocean and Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Ensemble Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C. D.; Hogan, P. J.; Martin, P.; Thoppil, P.; Wei, M.

2017-12-01

An extended range ensemble forecast system is being developed in the US Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), and a global ocean ensemble generation capability to represent uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions has been developed. At extended forecast times, the uncertainty due to the model error overtakes the initial condition as the primary source of forecast uncertainty. Recently, stochastic parameterization or stochastic forcing techniques have been applied to represent the model error in research and operational atmospheric, ocean, and coupled ensemble forecasts. A simple stochastic forcing technique has been developed for application to US Navy high resolution regional and global ocean models, for use in ocean-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-wave ensemble forecast systems. Perturbation forcing is added to the tendency equations for state variables, with the forcing defined by random 3- or 4-dimensional fields with horizontal, vertical, and temporal correlations specified to characterize different possible kinds of error. Here, we demonstrate the stochastic forcing in regional and global ensemble forecasts with varying perturbation amplitudes and length and time scales, and assess the change in ensemble skill measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics.

Coherently coupling distinct spin ensembles through a high critical temperature superconducting resonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirri, Alberto; Bonizzoni, Claudio; Troiani, Filippo; Affronte, Marco

The problem of coupling remote ensembles of two-level systems through cavity photons is revisited by using molecular spin centers and a high critical temperature superconducting coplanar resonator. By using PyBTM organic radicals, we achieved the strong coupling regime with values of the cooperativity reaching 4300 at 2 K. We show that up to three distinct spin ensembles are simultaneously coupled through the resonator mode. The ensembles are made physically distinguishable by chemically varying the g-factor and by exploiting the inhomogeneities of the applied magnetic field. The coherent mixing of the spin and field modes is demonstrated by the observed multiple anticrossing, along with the simulations performed within the input-output formalism, and quantified by suitable entropic measures.

An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks as when compared to a deterministic forecast. The work offers perspectives for short-term flood forecasts, flood mitigation strategies and best management practices for climate change scenarios.

Hong-Ou-Mandel Interference between Two Deterministic Collective Excitations in an Atomic Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Zhou, Ming-Ti; Jing, Bo; Wang, Xu-Jie; Yang, Sheng-Jun; Jiang, Xiao; Mølmer, Klaus; Bao, Xiao-Hui; Pan, Jian-Wei

2016-10-01

We demonstrate deterministic generation of two distinct collective excitations in one atomic ensemble, and we realize the Hong-Ou-Mandel interference between them. Using Rydberg blockade we create single collective excitations in two different Zeeman levels, and we use stimulated Raman transitions to perform a beam-splitter operation between the excited atomic modes. By converting the atomic excitations into photons, the two-excitation interference is measured by photon coincidence detection with a visibility of 0.89(6). The Hong-Ou-Mandel interference witnesses an entangled NOON state of the collective atomic excitations, and we demonstrate its two times enhanced sensitivity to a magnetic field compared with a single excitation. Our work implements a minimal instance of boson sampling and paves the way for further multimode and multiexcitation studies with collective excitations of atomic ensembles.

High Throughput Biological Analysis Using Multi-bit Magnetic Digital Planar Tags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, B.; Jeong, J.-R.; Llandro, J.; Hayward, T. J.; Ionescu, A.; Trypiniotis, T.; Mitrelias, T.; Kopper, K. P.; Steinmuller, S. J.; Bland, J. A. C.

2008-06-01

We report a new magnetic labelling technology for high-throughput biomolecular identification and DNA sequencing. Planar multi-bit magnetic tags have been designed and fabricated, which comprise a magnetic barcode formed by an ensemble of micron-sized thin film Ni80Fe20 bars encapsulated in SU8. We show that by using a globally applied magnetic field and magneto-optical Kerr microscopy the magnetic elements in the multi-bit magnetic tags can be addressed individually and encoded/decoded remotely. The critical steps needed to show the feasibility of this technology are demonstrated, including fabrication, flow transport, remote writing and reading, and successful functionalization of the tags as verified by fluorescence detection. This approach is ideal for encoding information on tags in microfluidic flow or suspension, for such applications as labelling of chemical precursors during drug synthesis and combinatorial library-based high-throughput multiplexed bioassays.

NWS Operational Requirements for Ensemble-Based Hydrologic Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, R. K.

2008-12-01

Ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been developed and issued by National Weather Service (NWS) staff at River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for many years. Used principally for long-range water supply forecasts, only the uncertainty associated with weather and climate have been traditionally considered. As technology and societal expectations of resource managers increase, the use and desire for risk-based decision support tools has also increased. These tools require forecast information that includes reliable uncertainty estimates across all time and space domains. The development of reliable uncertainty estimates associated with hydrologic forecasts is being actively pursued within the United States and internationally. This presentation will describe the challenges, components, and requirements for operational hydrologic ensemble-based forecasts from the perspective of a NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center.

Simultaneous Multiparameter Cellular Energy Metabolism Profiling of Small Populations of Cells.

PubMed

Kelbauskas, Laimonas; Ashili, Shashaanka P; Lee, Kristen B; Zhu, Haixin; Tian, Yanqing; Meldrum, Deirdre R

2018-03-12

Functional and genomic heterogeneity of individual cells are central players in a broad spectrum of normal and disease states. Our knowledge about the role of cellular heterogeneity in tissue and organism function remains limited due to analytical challenges one encounters when performing single cell studies in the context of cell-cell interactions. Information based on bulk samples represents ensemble averages over populations of cells, while data generated from isolated single cells do not account for intercellular interactions. We describe a new technology and demonstrate two important advantages over existing technologies: first, it enables multiparameter energy metabolism profiling of small cell populations (<100 cells)-a sample size that is at least an order of magnitude smaller than other, commercially available technologies; second, it can perform simultaneous real-time measurements of oxygen consumption rate (OCR), extracellular acidification rate (ECAR), and mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP)-a capability not offered by any other commercially available technology. Our results revealed substantial diversity in response kinetics of the three analytes in dysplastic human epithelial esophageal cells and suggest the existence of varying cellular energy metabolism profiles and their kinetics among small populations of cells. The technology represents a powerful analytical tool for multiparameter studies of cellular function.

An ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers for fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines.

PubMed

Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K

2016-04-01

In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2018-02-01

End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

PubMed

Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

2014-12-01

In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

Simulation of weak polyelectrolytes: a comparison between the constant pH and the reaction ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

2017-03-01

The reaction ensemble and the constant pH method are well-known chemical equilibrium approaches to simulate protonation and deprotonation reactions in classical molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, we demonstrate the similarity between both methods under certain conditions. We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a weak polyelectrolyte in order to compare the titration curves obtained by both approaches. Our findings reveal a good agreement between the methods when the reaction ensemble is used to sweep the reaction constant. Pronounced differences between the reaction ensemble and the constant pH method can be observed for stronger acids and bases in terms of adaptive pH values. These deviations are due to the presence of explicit protons in the reaction ensemble method which induce a screening of electrostatic interactions between the charged titrable groups of the polyelectrolyte. The outcomes of our simulation hint to a better applicability of the reaction ensemble method for systems in confined geometries and titrable groups in polyelectrolytes with different pKa values.

Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults.

PubMed

Maule, John; Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna

2017-05-01

Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839-851. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults

PubMed Central

Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna

2016-01-01

Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839–851. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:27874263

Research-to-Resource: Programming Ensemble Literature Composed by Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Vicki; Biggers, Carter

2018-01-01

Research has indicated that a gender imbalance exists in the field of music composition. This inequitable distribution is clearly demonstrated in a state-mandated repertoire list in which women represent 3% of the wind band composers and 12% of the choral composers (all voicings). Ensemble directors are in a position to affect a change by…

Wavevector multiplexed atomic quantum memory via spatially-resolved single-photon detection.

PubMed

Parniak, Michał; Dąbrowski, Michał; Mazelanik, Mateusz; Leszczyński, Adam; Lipka, Michał; Wasilewski, Wojciech

2017-12-15

Parallelized quantum information processing requires tailored quantum memories to simultaneously handle multiple photons. The spatial degree of freedom is a promising candidate to facilitate such photonic multiplexing. Using a single-photon resolving camera, we demonstrate a wavevector multiplexed quantum memory based on a cold atomic ensemble. Observation of nonclassical correlations between Raman scattered photons is confirmed by an average value of the second-order correlation function [Formula: see text] in 665 separated modes simultaneously. The proposed protocol utilizing the multimode memory along with the camera will facilitate generation of multi-photon states, which are a necessity in quantum-enhanced sensing technologies and as an input to photonic quantum circuits.

Ensembl Genomes: an integrative resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species.

PubMed

Kersey, Paul J; Staines, Daniel M; Lawson, Daniel; Kulesha, Eugene; Derwent, Paul; Humphrey, Jay C; Hughes, Daniel S T; Keenan, Stephan; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Koscielny, Gautier; Langridge, Nicholas; McDowall, Mark D; Megy, Karine; Maheswari, Uma; Nuhn, Michael; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Toneva, Iliana; Wilson, Derek; Yates, Andrew; Birney, Ewan

2012-01-01

Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrative resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species. The project exploits and extends technology (for genome annotation, analysis and dissemination) developed in the context of the (vertebrate-focused) Ensembl project and provides a complementary set of resources for non-vertebrate species through a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces. These provide access to data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, polymorphisms and comparative analysis. Since its launch in 2009, Ensembl Genomes has undergone rapid expansion, with the goal of providing coverage of all major experimental organisms, and additionally including taxonomic reference points to provide the evolutionary context in which genes can be understood. Against the backdrop of a continuing increase in genome sequencing activities in all parts of the tree of life, we seek to work, wherever possible, with the communities actively generating and using data, and are participants in a growing range of collaborations involved in the annotation and analysis of genomes.

Ensemble: a web-based system for psychology survey and experiment management.

PubMed

Tomic, Stefan T; Janata, Petr

2007-08-01

We provide a description of Ensemble, a suite of Web-integrated modules for managing and analyzing data associated with psychology experiments in a small research lab. The system delivers interfaces via a Web browser for creating and presenting simple surveys without the need to author Web pages and with little or no programming effort. The surveys may be extended by selecting and presenting auditory and/or visual stimuli with MATLAB and Flash to enable a wide range of psychophysical and cognitive experiments which do not require the recording of precise reaction times. Additionally, one is provided with the ability to administer and present experiments remotely. The software technologies employed by the various modules of Ensemble are MySQL, PHP, MATLAB, and Flash. The code for Ensemble is open source and available to the public, so that its functions can be readily extended by users. We describe the architecture of the system, the functionality of each module, and provide basic examples of the interfaces.

Propellant Handler's Ensemble (PHE) Aka Self-Contained Atmospheric Protective Ensemble (SCAPE), Ventilator Improvement Study Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliva-Buisson, Yvette J. (Compiler)

2014-01-01

The overall objective for this project is to evaluate two candidate alternatives for the existing Propellant Handler's Ensemble (PHE) escape ventilator. The new candidate ventilators use newer technology with similar quantities of air at approximately half the weight of the current ventilator. Ventilators are typically used to ingress/egress a hazardous work area when hard line air is provided at the work area but the hose is not long enough to get the operator to and from the staging area to the work area. The intent of this test is to verify that the new ventilators perform as well as or better than the current ventilators in maintaining proper oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the PHE during a typical use for the rated time period (10 minutes). We will evaluate two new units comparing them to the existing unit. Subjects will wear the Category I version of the Propellant Handler's Ensemble with the rear suit pouch snapped.

Multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis: application to diagnostics, monitoring and biometrics.

PubMed

Gavrishchaka, Valeriy; Senyukova, Olga; Davis, Kristina

2015-01-01

Previously, we have proposed to use complementary complexity measures discovered by boosting-like ensemble learning for the enhancement of quantitative indicators dealing with necessarily short physiological time series. We have confirmed robustness of such multi-complexity measures for heart rate variability analysis with the emphasis on detection of emerging and intermittent cardiac abnormalities. Recently, we presented preliminary results suggesting that such ensemble-based approach could be also effective in discovering universal meta-indicators for early detection and convenient monitoring of neurological abnormalities using gait time series. Here, we argue and demonstrate that these multi-complexity ensemble measures for gait time series analysis could have significantly wider application scope ranging from diagnostics and early detection of physiological regime change to gait-based biometrics applications.

Enhanced Sampling in the Well-Tempered Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonomi, M.; Parrinello, M.

2010-05-01

We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the fly by a recently developed reweighting method [M. Bonomi , J. Comput. Chem. 30, 1615 (2009)JCCHDD0192-865110.1002/jcc.21305]. We apply WTE and its parallel tempering variant to the 2d Ising model and to a Gō model of HIV protease, demonstrating in these two representative cases that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.

Enhanced sampling in the well-tempered ensemble.

PubMed

Bonomi, M; Parrinello, M

2010-05-14

We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the fly by a recently developed reweighting method [M. Bonomi, J. Comput. Chem. 30, 1615 (2009)]. We apply WTE and its parallel tempering variant to the 2d Ising model and to a Gō model of HIV protease, demonstrating in these two representative cases that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.

Improvement in T2* via Cancellation of Spin Bath Induced Dephasing in Solid-State Spins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauch, Erik; Hart, Connor; Schloss, Jennifer; Turner, Matthew; Barry, John; Walsworth, Ronald L.

2017-04-01

In measurements using ensembles of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers in diamond, the magnetic field sensitivity can be improved by increasing the NV spin dephasing time, T2*. For NV ensembles, T2* is limited by dephasing arising from variations in the local environment sensed by individual NVs, such as applied magnetic fields, noise induced by other nearby spins, and strain. Here, we describe a systematic study of parameters influencing the NV ensemble T2*, and efforts to mitigate sources of inhomogeneity with demonstrated T2* improvements exceeding one order of magnitude.

Generation of Light with Multimode Time-Delayed Entanglement Using Storage in a Solid-State Spin-Wave Quantum Memory.

PubMed

Ferguson, Kate R; Beavan, Sarah E; Longdell, Jevon J; Sellars, Matthew J

2016-07-08

Here, we demonstrate generating and storing entanglement in a solid-state spin-wave quantum memory with on-demand readout using the process of rephased amplified spontaneous emission (RASE). Amplified spontaneous emission (ASE), resulting from an inverted ensemble of Pr^{3+} ions doped into a Y_{2}SiO_{5} crystal, generates entanglement between collective states of the praseodymium ensemble and the output light. The ensemble is then rephased using a four-level photon echo technique. Entanglement between the ASE and its echo is confirmed and the inseparability violation preserved when the RASE is stored as a spin wave for up to 5  μs. RASE is shown to be temporally multimode with almost perfect distinguishability between two temporal modes demonstrated. These results pave the way for the use of multimode solid-state quantum memories in scalable quantum networks.

A real-time evaluation and demonstration of strategies for 'Over-The-Loop' ensemble streamflow forecasting in US watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Mendoza, Pablo; Nijssen, Bart; Newman, Andy; Clark, Martyn; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Many if not most national operational streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach that require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved from the need to correct for long-standing deficiencies in the models and datasets used in forecasting, and the practice often leads to skillful flow predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. Yet the 'in-the-loop' forecast process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate new techniques systematically, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun develop more centralized, 'over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, many national operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as such systems are beginning to be deployed operationally in centers such as ECMWF. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis Research and Prediction Applications' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop ensemble flow forecasts in a range of US watersheds. The system relies on fully ensemble techniques, including: an 100-member ensemble of meteorological model forcings and an ensemble particle filter data assimilation for initializing watershed states; analog/regression-based downscaling of ensemble weather forecasts from GEFS; and statistical post-processing of ensemble forecast outputs, all of which run in real-time within a workflow managed by ECWMF's ecFlow libraries over large US regional domains. We describe SHARP and present early hindcast and verification results for short to seasonal range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

Ensembl core software resources: storage and programmatic access for DNA sequence and genome annotation.

PubMed

Ruffier, Magali; Kähäri, Andreas; Komorowska, Monika; Keenan, Stephen; Laird, Matthew; Longden, Ian; Proctor, Glenn; Searle, Steve; Staines, Daniel; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Yates, Andrew; Zerbino, Daniel; Flicek, Paul

2017-01-01

The Ensembl software resources are a stable infrastructure to store, access and manipulate genome assemblies and their functional annotations. The Ensembl 'Core' database and Application Programming Interface (API) was our first major piece of software infrastructure and remains at the centre of all of our genome resources. Since its initial design more than fifteen years ago, the number of publicly available genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic datasets has grown enormously, accelerated by continuous advances in DNA-sequencing technology. Initially intended to provide annotation for the reference human genome, we have extended our framework to support the genomes of all species as well as richer assembly models. Cross-referenced links to other informatics resources facilitate searching our database with a variety of popular identifiers such as UniProt and RefSeq. Our comprehensive and robust framework storing a large diversity of genome annotations in one location serves as a platform for other groups to generate and maintain their own tailored annotation. We welcome reuse and contributions: our databases and APIs are publicly available, all of our source code is released with a permissive Apache v2.0 licence at http://github.com/Ensembl and we have an active developer mailing list ( http://www.ensembl.org/info/about/contact/index.html ). http://www.ensembl.org. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Interfacing broadband photonic qubits to on-chip cavity-protected rare-earth ensembles

PubMed Central

Zhong, Tian; Kindem, Jonathan M.; Rochman, Jake; Faraon, Andrei

2017-01-01

Ensembles of solid-state optical emitters enable broadband quantum storage and transduction of photonic qubits, with applications in high-rate quantum networks for secure communications and interconnecting future quantum computers. To transfer quantum states using ensembles, rephasing techniques are used to mitigate fast decoherence resulting from inhomogeneous broadening, but these techniques generally limit the bandwidth, efficiency and active times of the quantum interface. Here, we use a dense ensemble of neodymium rare-earth ions strongly coupled to a nanophotonic resonator to demonstrate a significant cavity protection effect at the single-photon level—a technique to suppress ensemble decoherence due to inhomogeneous broadening. The protected Rabi oscillations between the cavity field and the atomic super-radiant state enable ultra-fast transfer of photonic frequency qubits to the ions (∼50 GHz bandwidth) followed by retrieval with 98.7% fidelity. With the prospect of coupling to other long-lived rare-earth spin states, this technique opens the possibilities for broadband, always-ready quantum memories and fast optical-to-microwave transducers. PMID:28090078

Building Diversified Multiple Trees for classification in high dimensional noisy biomedical data.

PubMed

Li, Jiuyong; Liu, Lin; Liu, Jixue; Green, Ryan

2017-12-01

It is common that a trained classification model is applied to the operating data that is deviated from the training data because of noise. This paper will test an ensemble method, Diversified Multiple Tree (DMT), on its capability for classifying instances in a new laboratory using the classifier built on the instances of another laboratory. DMT is tested on three real world biomedical data sets from different laboratories in comparison with four benchmark ensemble methods, AdaBoost, Bagging, Random Forests, and Random Trees. Experiments have also been conducted on studying the limitation of DMT and its possible variations. Experimental results show that DMT is significantly more accurate than other benchmark ensemble classifiers on classifying new instances of a different laboratory from the laboratory where instances are used to build the classifier. This paper demonstrates that an ensemble classifier, DMT, is more robust in classifying noisy data than other widely used ensemble methods. DMT works on the data set that supports multiple simple trees.

Interfacing broadband photonic qubits to on-chip cavity-protected rare-earth ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Tian; Kindem, Jonathan M.; Rochman, Jake; Faraon, Andrei

2017-01-01

Ensembles of solid-state optical emitters enable broadband quantum storage and transduction of photonic qubits, with applications in high-rate quantum networks for secure communications and interconnecting future quantum computers. To transfer quantum states using ensembles, rephasing techniques are used to mitigate fast decoherence resulting from inhomogeneous broadening, but these techniques generally limit the bandwidth, efficiency and active times of the quantum interface. Here, we use a dense ensemble of neodymium rare-earth ions strongly coupled to a nanophotonic resonator to demonstrate a significant cavity protection effect at the single-photon level--a technique to suppress ensemble decoherence due to inhomogeneous broadening. The protected Rabi oscillations between the cavity field and the atomic super-radiant state enable ultra-fast transfer of photonic frequency qubits to the ions (~50 GHz bandwidth) followed by retrieval with 98.7% fidelity. With the prospect of coupling to other long-lived rare-earth spin states, this technique opens the possibilities for broadband, always-ready quantum memories and fast optical-to-microwave transducers.

Oceanic ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: An application to the case of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khade, Vikram; Kurian, Jaison; Chang, Ping; Szunyogh, Istvan; Thyng, Kristen; Montuoro, Raffaele

2017-05-01

This paper demonstrates the potential of ocean ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The Bred Vector (BV) technique with one week rescaling frequency is implemented on a 9 km resolution version of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Numerical experiments are carried out by using the HYCOM analysis products to define the initial conditions and the lateral boundary conditions. The growth rates of the forecast uncertainty are estimated to be about 10% of initial amplitude per week. By carrying out ensemble forecast experiments with and without perturbed surface forcing, it is demonstrated that in the coastal regions accounting for uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing is more important than accounting for uncertainties in the ocean initial conditions. In the Loop Current region, the initial condition uncertainties, are the dominant source of the forecast uncertainty. The root-mean-square error of the Lagrangian track forecasts at the 15-day forecast lead time can be reduced by about 10 - 50 km using the ensemble mean Eulerian forecast of the oceanic flow for the computation of the tracks, instead of the single-initial-condition Eulerian forecast.

Ensemble assimilation of ARGO temperature profile, sea surface temperature and Altimetric satellite data into an eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yajing; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Candille, Guillem; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Brasseur, Pierre

2015-04-01

Sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. 60 ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. Incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with observations used in the assimilation experiments and independent observations, which goes further than most previous studies and constitutes one of the original points of this paper. Regarding the deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. Regarding the probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centred random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analysed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted. High reliable situations, in which the RMS error and the CRPS give the same information, are identified for the first time in this paper.

A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, Firas; Ramaswamy, Venkatsundar; Georgas, Nickitas; Blumberg, Alan F.; Pullen, Julie

2016-07-01

This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using a hydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather prediction models. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic prediction framework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model (HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin ( ˜ 36 000 km2) in the United States using gridded precipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated against streamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate a retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrological event, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream discharge forecasts provide improved predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks when compared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputs may result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing the potential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate how errors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as well as the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event by utilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of this work benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales, notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event when combined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modeling framework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible and applicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis products and streamflow data are available.

Universal Linear Optics: An implementation of Boson Sampling on a Fully Reconfigurable Circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrold, Christopher; Carolan, Jacques; Sparrow, Chris; Russell, Nicholas J.; Silverstone, Joshua W.; Marshall, Graham D.; Thompson, Mark G.; Matthews, Jonathan C. F.; O'Brien, Jeremy L.; Laing, Anthony; Martín-López, Enrique; Shadbolt, Peter J.; Matsuda, Nobuyuki; Oguma, Manabu; Itoh, Mikitaka; Hashimoto, Toshikazu

Linear optics has paved the way for fundamental tests in quantum mechanics and has gone on to enable a broad range of quantum information processing applications for quantum technologies. We demonstrate an integrated photonics processor that is universal for linear optics. The device is a silica-on-silicon planar waveguide circuit (PLC) comprising a cascade of 15 Mach Zehnder interferometers, with 30 directional couplers and 30 tunable thermo-optic phase shifters which are electrically interfaced for the arbitrary setting of a phase. We input ensembles of up to six photons, and monitor the output with a 12-single-photon detector system. The calibrated device is capable of implementing any linear optical protocol. This enables the implementation of new quantum information processing tasks in seconds, which would have previously taken months to realise. We demonstrate 100 instances of the boson sampling problem with verification tests, and six-dimensional complex Hadamards. Also Imperial College London.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Towards an improved ensemble precipitation forecast: A probabilistic post-processing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2017-03-01

Recently, ensemble post-processing (EPP) has become a commonly used approach for reducing the uncertainty in forcing data and hence hydrologic simulation. The procedure was introduced to build ensemble precipitation forecasts based on the statistical relationship between observations and forecasts. More specifically, the approach relies on a transfer function that is developed based on a bivariate joint distribution between the observations and the simulations in the historical period. The transfer function is used to post-process the forecast. In this study, we propose a Bayesian EPP approach based on copula functions (COP-EPP) to improve the reliability of the precipitation ensemble forecast. Evaluation of the copula-based method is carried out by comparing the performance of the generated ensemble precipitation with the outputs from an existing procedure, i.e. mixed type meta-Gaussian distribution. Monthly precipitation from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS) and gridded observation from Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) have been employed to generate the post-processed ensemble precipitation. Deterministic and probabilistic verification frameworks are utilized in order to evaluate the outputs from the proposed technique. Distribution of seasonal precipitation for the generated ensemble from the copula-based technique is compared to the observation and raw forecasts for three sub-basins located in the Western United States. Results show that both techniques are successful in producing reliable and unbiased ensemble forecast, however, the COP-EPP demonstrates considerable improvement in the ensemble forecast in both deterministic and probabilistic verification, in particular in characterizing the extreme events in wet seasons.

Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Data for Inversely Determining Atmospheric Refractivity in Surface Ducting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenway, D. P.; Hackett, E.

2017-12-01

Under certain atmospheric refractivity conditions, propagated electromagnetic waves (EM) can become trapped between the surface and the bottom of the atmosphere's mixed layer, which is referred to as surface duct propagation. Being able to predict the presence of these surface ducts can reap many benefits to users and developers of sensing technologies and communication systems because they significantly influence the performance of these systems. However, the ability to directly measure or model a surface ducting layer is challenging due to the high spatial resolution and large spatial coverage needed to make accurate refractivity estimates for EM propagation; thus, inverse methods have become an increasingly popular way of determining atmospheric refractivity. This study uses data from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System developed by the Naval Research Laboratory and instrumented helicopter (helo) measurements taken during the Wallops Island Field Experiment to evaluate the use of ensemble forecasts in refractivity inversions. Helo measurements and ensemble forecasts are optimized to a parametric refractivity model, and three experiments are performed to evaluate whether incorporation of ensemble forecast data aids in more timely and accurate inverse solutions using genetic algorithms. The results suggest that using optimized ensemble members as an initial population for the genetic algorithms generally enhances the accuracy and speed of the inverse solution; however, use of the ensemble data to restrict parameter search space yields mixed results. Inaccurate results are related to parameterization of the ensemble members' refractivity profile and the subsequent extraction of the parameter ranges to limit the search space.

Quantum memory operations in a flux qubit - spin ensemble hybrid system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, S.; Zhu, X.; Amsuss, R.; Matsuzaki, Y.; Kakuyanagi, K.; Shimo-Oka, T.; Mizuochi, N.; Nemoto, K.; Munro, W. J.; Semba, K.

2014-03-01

Superconducting quantum bits (qubits) are one of the most promising candidates for a future large-scale quantum processor. However for larger scale realizations the currently reported coherence times of these macroscopic objects (superconducting qubits) has not yet reached those of microscopic systems (electron spins, nuclear spins, etc). In this context, a superconductor-spin ensemble hybrid system has attracted considerable attention. The spin ensemble could operate as a quantum memory for superconducting qubits. We have experimentally demonstrated quantum memory operations in a superconductor-diamond hybrid system. An excited state and a superposition state prepared in the flux qubit can be transferred to, stored in and retrieved from the NV spin ensemble in diamond. From these experiments, we have found the coherence time of the spin ensemble is limited by the inhomogeneous broadening of the electron spin (4.4 MHz) and by the hyperfine coupling to nitrogen nuclear spins (2.3 MHz). In the future, spin echo techniques could eliminate these effects and elongate the coherence time. Our results are a significant first step in utilizing the spin ensemble as long-lived quantum memory for superconducting flux qubits. This work was supported by the FIRST program and NICT.

Clustering cancer gene expression data by projective clustering ensemble

PubMed Central

Yu, Xianxue; Yu, Guoxian

2017-01-01

Gene expression data analysis has paramount implications for gene treatments, cancer diagnosis and other domains. Clustering is an important and promising tool to analyze gene expression data. Gene expression data is often characterized by a large amount of genes but with limited samples, thus various projective clustering techniques and ensemble techniques have been suggested to combat with these challenges. However, it is rather challenging to synergy these two kinds of techniques together to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem and to boost the performance of gene expression data clustering. In this paper, we employ a projective clustering ensemble (PCE) to integrate the advantages of projective clustering and ensemble clustering, and to avoid the dilemma of combining multiple projective clusterings. Our experimental results on publicly available cancer gene expression data show PCE can improve the quality of clustering gene expression data by at least 4.5% (on average) than other related techniques, including dimensionality reduction based single clustering and ensemble approaches. The empirical study demonstrates that, to further boost the performance of clustering cancer gene expression data, it is necessary and promising to synergy projective clustering with ensemble clustering. PCE can serve as an effective alternative technique for clustering gene expression data. PMID:28234920

Using ensemble of classifiers for predicting HIV protease cleavage sites in proteins.

PubMed

Nanni, Loris; Lumini, Alessandra

2009-03-01

The focus of this work is the use of ensembles of classifiers for predicting HIV protease cleavage sites in proteins. Due to the complex relationships in the biological data, several recent works show that often ensembles of learning algorithms outperform stand-alone methods. We show that the fusion of approaches based on different encoding models can be useful for improving the performance of this classification problem. In particular, in this work four different feature encodings for peptides are described and tested. An extensive evaluation on a large dataset according to a blind testing protocol is reported which demonstrates how different feature extraction methods and classifiers can be combined for obtaining a robust and reliable system. The comparison with other stand-alone approaches allows quantifying the performance improvement obtained by the ensembles proposed in this work.

Causal network in a deafferented non-human primate brain.

PubMed

Balasubramanian, Karthikeyan; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G

2015-01-01

De-afferented/efferented neural ensembles can undergo causal changes when interfaced to neuroprosthetic devices. These changes occur via recruitment or isolation of neurons, alterations in functional connectivity within the ensemble and/or changes in the role of neurons, i.e., excitatory/inhibitory. In this work, emergence of a causal network and changes in the dynamics are demonstrated for a deafferented brain region exposed to BMI (brain-machine interface) learning. The BMI was controlling a robot for reach-and-grasp behavior. And, the motor cortical regions used for the BMI were deafferented due to chronic amputation, and ensembles of neurons were decoded for velocity control of the multi-DOF robot. A generalized linear model-framework based Granger causality (GLM-GC) technique was used in estimating the ensemble connectivity. Model selection was based on the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

Inner Radiation Belt Dynamics and Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, P. P.; Looper, M. D.

2012-12-01

We present preliminary results of inner belt proton data assimilation using an augmented version of the Selesnick et al. Inner Zone Model (SIZM). By varying modeled physics parameters and solar particle injection parameters to generate many ensembles of the inner belt, then optimizing the ensemble weights according to inner belt observations from SAMPEX/PET at LEO and HEO/DOS at high altitude, we obtain the best-fit state of the inner belt. We need to fully sample the range of solar proton injection sources among the ensemble members to ensure reasonable agreement between the model ensembles and observations. Once this is accomplished, we find the method is fairly robust. We will demonstrate the data assimilation by presenting an extended interval of solar proton injections and losses, illustrating how these short-term dynamics dominate long-term inner belt climatology.

Stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbreth, C. N.; Alhassid, Y.

2015-03-01

Quantum Monte Carlo methods are powerful techniques for studying strongly interacting Fermi systems. However, implementing these methods on computers with finite-precision arithmetic requires careful attention to numerical stability. In the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo (AFMC) method, low-temperature or large-model-space calculations require numerically stabilized matrix multiplication. When adapting methods used in the grand-canonical ensemble to the canonical ensemble of fixed particle number, the numerical stabilization increases the number of required floating-point operations for computing observables by a factor of the size of the single-particle model space, and thus can greatly limit the systems that can be studied. We describe an improved method for stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in AFMC that exhibits better scaling, and present numerical tests that demonstrate the accuracy and improved performance of the method.

A shared neural ensemble links distinct contextual memories encoded close in time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Denise J.; Aharoni, Daniel; Shuman, Tristan; Shobe, Justin; Biane, Jeremy; Song, Weilin; Wei, Brandon; Veshkini, Michael; La-Vu, Mimi; Lou, Jerry; Flores, Sergio E.; Kim, Isaac; Sano, Yoshitake; Zhou, Miou; Baumgaertel, Karsten; Lavi, Ayal; Kamata, Masakazu; Tuszynski, Mark; Mayford, Mark; Golshani, Peyman; Silva, Alcino J.

2016-06-01

Recent studies suggest that a shared neural ensemble may link distinct memories encoded close in time. According to the memory allocation hypothesis, learning triggers a temporary increase in neuronal excitability that biases the representation of a subsequent memory to the neuronal ensemble encoding the first memory, such that recall of one memory increases the likelihood of recalling the other memory. Here we show in mice that the overlap between the hippocampal CA1 ensembles activated by two distinct contexts acquired within a day is higher than when they are separated by a week. Several findings indicate that this overlap of neuronal ensembles links two contextual memories. First, fear paired with one context is transferred to a neutral context when the two contexts are acquired within a day but not across a week. Second, the first memory strengthens the second memory within a day but not across a week. Older mice, known to have lower CA1 excitability, do not show the overlap between ensembles, the transfer of fear between contexts, or the strengthening of the second memory. Finally, in aged mice, increasing cellular excitability and activating a common ensemble of CA1 neurons during two distinct context exposures rescued the deficit in linking memories. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that contextual memories encoded close in time are linked by directing storage into overlapping ensembles. Alteration of these processes by ageing could affect the temporal structure of memories, thus impairing efficient recall of related information.

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.

The Collision of Plausibility with Reality: Lifting the Veil of the Ethical Neutrality of Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borgmann, Albert

2012-01-01

Technology, thought of as the ensemble of utilities and devices and of their impact on our lives, proceeds in steps, each of which seems plausible. This kind of development also encourages the view that technology is value-neutral. It always can be used both for good and ill, and we decide how to use it. The production of food and the development…

Probabilistic flood inundation prediction within a coupled hydrodynamic, distributed hydrologic modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, T. E.

2016-12-01

Accurate and timely predictions of the lateral exent of floodwaters and water level depth in floodplain areas are critical globally. This paper demonstrates the coupling of hydrologic ensembles, derived from the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forcings as input to a fully distributed hydrologic model. Resulting ensemble output from the distributed hydrologic model are used as upstream flow boundaries and lateral inflows to a 1-D hydrodynamic model. An example is presented for the Potomac River in the vicinity of Washington, DC (USA). The approach taken falls within the broader goals of the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX).

A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble

PubMed Central

DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

2017-01-01

Abstract We propose a general methodology for determining the lagged ensemble that minimizes the mean square forecast error. The MSE of a lagged ensemble is shown to depend only on a quantity called the cross‐lead error covariance matrix, which can be estimated from a short hindcast data set and parameterized in terms of analytic functions of time. The resulting parameterization allows the skill of forecasts to be evaluated for an arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Remarkably, the parameterization also can estimate the MSE of a burst ensemble simply by taking the limit of an infinitely small interval between initialization times. This methodology is applied to forecasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) from version 2 of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). For leads greater than a week, little improvement is found in the MJO forecast skill when ensembles larger than 5 days are used or initializations greater than 4 times per day. We find that if the initialization frequency is too infrequent, important structures of the lagged error covariance matrix are lost. Lastly, we demonstrate that the forecast error at leads ≥10 days can be reduced by optimally weighting the lagged ensemble members. The weights are shown to depend only on the cross‐lead error covariance matrix. While the methodology developed here is applied to CFSv2, the technique can be easily adapted to other forecast systems. PMID:28580050

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Quantifying rapid changes in cardiovascular state with a moving ensemble average.

PubMed

Cieslak, Matthew; Ryan, William S; Babenko, Viktoriya; Erro, Hannah; Rathbun, Zoe M; Meiring, Wendy; Kelsey, Robert M; Blascovich, Jim; Grafton, Scott T

2018-04-01

MEAP, the moving ensemble analysis pipeline, is a new open-source tool designed to perform multisubject preprocessing and analysis of cardiovascular data, including electrocardiogram (ECG), impedance cardiogram (ICG), and continuous blood pressure (BP). In addition to traditional ensemble averaging, MEAP implements a moving ensemble averaging method that allows for the continuous estimation of indices related to cardiovascular state, including cardiac output, preejection period, heart rate variability, and total peripheral resistance, among others. Here, we define the moving ensemble technique mathematically, highlighting its differences from fixed-window ensemble averaging. We describe MEAP's interface and features for signal processing, artifact correction, and cardiovascular-based fMRI analysis. We demonstrate the accuracy of MEAP's novel B point detection algorithm on a large collection of hand-labeled ICG waveforms. As a proof of concept, two subjects completed a series of four physical and cognitive tasks (cold pressor, Valsalva maneuver, video game, random dot kinetogram) on 3 separate days while ECG, ICG, and BP were recorded. Critically, the moving ensemble method reliably captures the rapid cyclical cardiovascular changes related to the baroreflex during the Valsalva maneuver and the classic cold pressor response. Cardiovascular measures were seen to vary considerably within repetitions of the same cognitive task for each individual, suggesting that a carefully designed paradigm could be used to capture fast-acting event-related changes in cardiovascular state. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Case-Based Learning, Pedagogical Innovation, and Semantic Web Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinez-Garcia, A.; Morris, S.; Tscholl, M.; Tracy, F.; Carmichael, P.

2012-01-01

This paper explores the potential of Semantic Web technologies to support teaching and learning in a variety of higher education settings in which some form of case-based learning is the pedagogy of choice. It draws on the empirical work of a major three year research and development project in the United Kingdom: "Ensemble: Semantic…

Mobilities, Moorings and Boundary Marking in Developing Semantic Technologies in Educational Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Richard; Tracy, Fran; Jordan, Katy

2011-01-01

While much attention has been given to the changing spaces of education introduced by new technologies, the impact of spatial theory on the discussion of such education is less well developed. Drawing upon empirical evidence from the Ensemble research project, this article examines spatially some of the possibilities and constraints that arise in…

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

From a structural average to the conformational ensemble of a DNA bulge

PubMed Central

Shi, Xuesong; Beauchamp, Kyle A.; Harbury, Pehr B.; Herschlag, Daniel

2014-01-01

Direct experimental measurements of conformational ensembles are critical for understanding macromolecular function, but traditional biophysical methods do not directly report the solution ensemble of a macromolecule. Small-angle X-ray scattering interferometry has the potential to overcome this limitation by providing the instantaneous distance distribution between pairs of gold-nanocrystal probes conjugated to a macromolecule in solution. Our X-ray interferometry experiments reveal an increasing bend angle of DNA duplexes with bulges of one, three, and five adenosine residues, consistent with previous FRET measurements, and further reveal an increasingly broad conformational ensemble with increasing bulge length. The distance distributions for the AAA bulge duplex (3A-DNA) with six different Au-Au pairs provide strong evidence against a simple elastic model in which fluctuations occur about a single conformational state. Instead, the measured distance distributions suggest a 3A-DNA ensemble with multiple conformational states predominantly across a region of conformational space with bend angles between 24 and 85 degrees and characteristic bend directions and helical twists and displacements. Additional X-ray interferometry experiments revealed perturbations to the ensemble from changes in ionic conditions and the bulge sequence, effects that can be understood in terms of electrostatic and stacking contributions to the ensemble and that demonstrate the sensitivity of X-ray interferometry. Combining X-ray interferometry ensemble data with molecular dynamics simulations gave atomic-level models of representative conformational states and of the molecular interactions that may shape the ensemble, and fluorescence measurements with 2-aminopurine-substituted 3A-DNA provided initial tests of these atomistic models. More generally, X-ray interferometry will provide powerful benchmarks for testing and developing computational methods. PMID:24706812

NIMEFI: gene regulatory network inference using multiple ensemble feature importance algorithms.

PubMed

Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan

2014-01-01

One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available.

Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, Thomas T.; Sheu, Rong-Shyang; Bowers, James F.; Sykes, R. Ian; Dodd, Gregory C.; Henn, Douglas S.

2002-05-01

Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system. The results demonstrate that the specific choices made about the dynamic-model configuration and the large-scale analyses can have a large impact on the simulated dosages. For example, the area near the source that is exposed to a selected dosage threshold varies by up to a factor of 4 among members of the ensemble. The agreement between the explicit and ensemble dosage probabilities is relatively good for both low and high dosage levels. Although only one ensemble was considered in this study, the encouraging results suggest that a probabilistic dispersion model may be of value in quantifying the effects of uncertainties in a dynamic-model ensemble on dispersion model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion.

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

PubMed

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

Dynamical backaction cooling with free electrons.

PubMed

Niguès, A; Siria, A; Verlot, P

2015-09-18

The ability to cool single ions, atomic ensembles, and more recently macroscopic degrees of freedom down to the quantum ground state has generated considerable progress and perspectives in fundamental and technological science. These major advances have been essentially obtained by coupling mechanical motion to a resonant electromagnetic degree of freedom in what is generally known as laser cooling. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the first self-induced coherent cooling mechanism that is not mediated by an electromagnetic resonance. Using a focused electron beam, we report a 50-fold reduction of the motional temperature of a nanowire. Our result primarily relies on the sub-nanometre confinement of the electron beam and generalizes to any delayed and spatially confined interaction, with important consequences for near-field microscopy and fundamental nanoscale dissipation mechanisms.

Experimental realization of a multiplexed quantum memory with 225 individually accessible memory cells.

PubMed

Pu, Y-F; Jiang, N; Chang, W; Yang, H-X; Li, C; Duan, L-M

2017-05-08

To realize long-distance quantum communication and quantum network, it is required to have multiplexed quantum memory with many memory cells. Each memory cell needs to be individually addressable and independently accessible. Here we report an experiment that realizes a multiplexed DLCZ-type quantum memory with 225 individually accessible memory cells in a macroscopic atomic ensemble. As a key element for quantum repeaters, we demonstrate that entanglement with flying optical qubits can be stored into any neighboring memory cells and read out after a programmable time with high fidelity. Experimental realization of a multiplexed quantum memory with many individually accessible memory cells and programmable control of its addressing and readout makes an important step for its application in quantum information technology.

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been largely corrected on short-term predictions. For the longer term, the addition of the multi-model member has been beneficial to the quality of the predictions, although it is too early to determine whether the gain is related to the addition of a member or if multi-model member has plus-value itself.

Distinct Fos-Expressing Neuronal Ensembles in the Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Mediate Food Reward and Extinction Memories

PubMed Central

Warren, Brandon L.; Mendoza, Michael P.; Cruz, Fabio C.; Leao, Rodrigo M.; Caprioli, Daniele; Rubio, F. Javier; Whitaker, Leslie R.; McPherson, Kylie B.; Bossert, Jennifer M.; Shaham, Yavin

2016-01-01

In operant learning, initial reward-associated memories are thought to be distinct from subsequent extinction-associated memories. Memories formed during operant learning are thought to be stored in “neuronal ensembles.” Thus, we hypothesize that different neuronal ensembles encode reward- and extinction-associated memories. Here, we examined prefrontal cortex neuronal ensembles involved in the recall of reward and extinction memories of food self-administration. We first trained rats to lever press for palatable food pellets for 7 d (1 h/d) and then exposed them to 0, 2, or 7 daily extinction sessions in which lever presses were not reinforced. Twenty-four hours after the last training or extinction session, we exposed the rats to either a short 15 min extinction test session or left them in their homecage (a control condition). We found maximal Fos (a neuronal activity marker) immunoreactivity in the ventral medial prefrontal cortex of rats that previously received 2 extinction sessions, suggesting that neuronal ensembles in this area encode extinction memories. We then used the Daun02 inactivation procedure to selectively disrupt ventral medial prefrontal cortex neuronal ensembles that were activated during the 15 min extinction session following 0 (no extinction) or 2 prior extinction sessions to determine the effects of inactivating the putative food reward and extinction ensembles, respectively, on subsequent nonreinforced food seeking 2 d later. Inactivation of the food reward ensembles decreased food seeking, whereas inactivation of the extinction ensembles increased food seeking. Our results indicate that distinct neuronal ensembles encoding operant reward and extinction memories intermingle within the same cortical area. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A current popular hypothesis is that neuronal ensembles in different prefrontal cortex areas control reward-associated versus extinction-associated memories: the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) promotes reward seeking, whereas the ventral mPFC inhibits reward seeking. In this paper, we use the Daun02 chemogenetic inactivation procedure to demonstrate that Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles mediating both food reward and extinction memories intermingle within the same ventral mPFC area. PMID:27335401

Distinct Fos-Expressing Neuronal Ensembles in the Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Mediate Food Reward and Extinction Memories.

PubMed

Warren, Brandon L; Mendoza, Michael P; Cruz, Fabio C; Leao, Rodrigo M; Caprioli, Daniele; Rubio, F Javier; Whitaker, Leslie R; McPherson, Kylie B; Bossert, Jennifer M; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T

2016-06-22

In operant learning, initial reward-associated memories are thought to be distinct from subsequent extinction-associated memories. Memories formed during operant learning are thought to be stored in "neuronal ensembles." Thus, we hypothesize that different neuronal ensembles encode reward- and extinction-associated memories. Here, we examined prefrontal cortex neuronal ensembles involved in the recall of reward and extinction memories of food self-administration. We first trained rats to lever press for palatable food pellets for 7 d (1 h/d) and then exposed them to 0, 2, or 7 daily extinction sessions in which lever presses were not reinforced. Twenty-four hours after the last training or extinction session, we exposed the rats to either a short 15 min extinction test session or left them in their homecage (a control condition). We found maximal Fos (a neuronal activity marker) immunoreactivity in the ventral medial prefrontal cortex of rats that previously received 2 extinction sessions, suggesting that neuronal ensembles in this area encode extinction memories. We then used the Daun02 inactivation procedure to selectively disrupt ventral medial prefrontal cortex neuronal ensembles that were activated during the 15 min extinction session following 0 (no extinction) or 2 prior extinction sessions to determine the effects of inactivating the putative food reward and extinction ensembles, respectively, on subsequent nonreinforced food seeking 2 d later. Inactivation of the food reward ensembles decreased food seeking, whereas inactivation of the extinction ensembles increased food seeking. Our results indicate that distinct neuronal ensembles encoding operant reward and extinction memories intermingle within the same cortical area. A current popular hypothesis is that neuronal ensembles in different prefrontal cortex areas control reward-associated versus extinction-associated memories: the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) promotes reward seeking, whereas the ventral mPFC inhibits reward seeking. In this paper, we use the Daun02 chemogenetic inactivation procedure to demonstrate that Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles mediating both food reward and extinction memories intermingle within the same ventral mPFC area. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366691-13$15.00/0.

Single Aerosol Particle Studies Using Optical Trapping Raman And Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Z.; Wang, C.; Pan, Y. L.; Videen, G.

2017-12-01

Due to the physical and chemical complexity of aerosol particles and the interdisciplinary nature of aerosol science that involves physics, chemistry, and biology, our knowledge of aerosol particles is rather incomplete; our current understanding of aerosol particles is limited by averaged (over size, composition, shape, and orientation) and/or ensemble (over time, size, and multi-particles) measurements. Physically, single aerosol particles are the fundamental units of any large aerosol ensembles. Chemically, single aerosol particles carry individual chemical components (properties and constituents) in particle ensemble processes. Therefore, the study of single aerosol particles can bridge the gap between aerosol ensembles and bulk/surface properties and provide a hierarchical progression from a simple benchmark single-component system to a mixed-phase multicomponent system. A single aerosol particle can be an effective reactor to study heterogeneous surface chemistry in multiple phases. Latest technological advances provide exciting new opportunities to study single aerosol particles and to further develop single aerosol particle instrumentation. We present updates on our recent studies of single aerosol particles optically trapped in air using the optical-trapping Raman and cavity ringdown spectroscopy.

A Fractional Cartesian Composition Model for Semi-Spatial Comparative Visualization Design.

PubMed

Kolesar, Ivan; Bruckner, Stefan; Viola, Ivan; Hauser, Helwig

2017-01-01

The study of spatial data ensembles leads to substantial visualization challenges in a variety of applications. In this paper, we present a model for comparative visualization that supports the design of according ensemble visualization solutions by partial automation. We focus on applications, where the user is interested in preserving selected spatial data characteristics of the data as much as possible-even when many ensemble members should be jointly studied using comparative visualization. In our model, we separate the design challenge into a minimal set of user-specified parameters and an optimization component for the automatic configuration of the remaining design variables. We provide an illustrated formal description of our model and exemplify our approach in the context of several application examples from different domains in order to demonstrate its generality within the class of comparative visualization problems for spatial data ensembles.

Modified complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and intrinsic mode functions evaluation index for high-speed train gearbox fault diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dongyue; Lin, Jianhui; Li, Yanping

2018-06-01

Complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) has been developed for the mode-mixing problem in Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. Compared to the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the CEEMD method reduces residue noise in the signal reconstruction. Both CEEMD and EEMD need enough ensemble number to reduce the residue noise, and hence it would be too much computation cost. Moreover, the selection of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) for further analysis usually depends on experience. A modified CEEMD method and IMFs evaluation index are proposed with the aim of reducing the computational cost and select IMFs automatically. A simulated signal and in-service high-speed train gearbox vibration signals are employed to validate the proposed method in this paper. The results demonstrate that the modified CEEMD can decompose the signal efficiently with less computation cost, and the IMFs evaluation index can select the meaningful IMFs automatically.

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) for Clustering and Prediction in Heterogeneous Data

PubMed Central

Duan, Leo L.; Clancy, John P.; Szczesniak, Rhonda D.

2016-01-01

We propose a novel “tree-averaging” model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) and model them as a Dirichlet process. We show that BET determines the optimal number of trees by adapting to the data heterogeneity. Compared with the other ensemble methods, BET requires much fewer trees and shows equivalent prediction accuracy using weighted averaging. Moreover, each tree in BET provides variable selection criterion and interpretation for each subset. We developed an efficient estimating procedure with improved estimation strategies in both CART and mixture models. We demonstrate these advantages of BET with simulations and illustrate the approach with a real-world data example involving regression of lung function measurements obtained from patients with cystic fibrosis. Supplemental materials are available online. PMID:27524872

Toward canonical ensemble distribution from self-guided Langevin dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiongwu; Brooks, Bernard R.

2011-04-01

This work derives a quantitative description of the conformational distribution in self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) simulations. SGLD simulations employ guiding forces calculated from local average momentums to enhance low-frequency motion. This enhancement in low-frequency motion dramatically accelerates conformational search efficiency, but also induces certain perturbations in conformational distribution. Through the local averaging, we separate properties of molecular systems into low-frequency and high-frequency portions. The guiding force effect on the conformational distribution is quantitatively described using these low-frequency and high-frequency properties. This quantitative relation provides a way to convert between a canonical ensemble and a self-guided ensemble. Using example systems, we demonstrated how to utilize the relation to obtain canonical ensemble properties and conformational distributions from SGLD simulations. This development makes SGLD not only an efficient approach for conformational searching, but also an accurate means for conformational sampling.

Ensemble Perception of Dynamic Emotional Groups.

PubMed

Elias, Elric; Dyer, Michael; Sweeny, Timothy D

2017-02-01

Crowds of emotional faces are ubiquitous, so much so that the visual system utilizes a specialized mechanism known as ensemble coding to see them. In addition to being proximally close, members of emotional crowds, such as a laughing audience or an angry mob, often behave together. The manner in which crowd members behave-in sync or out of sync-may be critical for understanding their collective affect. Are ensemble mechanisms sensitive to these dynamic properties of groups? Here, observers estimated the average emotion of a crowd of dynamic faces. The members of some crowds changed their expressions synchronously, whereas individuals in other crowds acted asynchronously. Observers perceived the emotion of a synchronous group more precisely than the emotion of an asynchronous crowd or even a single dynamic face. These results demonstrate that ensemble representation is particularly sensitive to coordinated behavior, and they suggest that shared behavior is critical for understanding emotion in groups.

Hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors for the determination of the dielectric constant of semiconducting molecular ensembles.

PubMed

Petrini, Paula A; Silva, Ricardo M L; de Oliveira, Rafael F; Merces, Leandro; Bof Bufon, Carlos C

2018-06-29

Considerable advances in the field of molecular electronics have been achieved over the recent years. One persistent challenge, however, is the exploitation of the electronic properties of molecules fully integrated into devices. Typically, the molecular electronic properties are investigated using sophisticated techniques incompatible with a practical device technology, such as the scanning tunneling microscopy. The incorporation of molecular materials in devices is not a trivial task as the typical dimensions of electrical contacts are much larger than the molecular ones. To tackle this issue, we report on hybrid capacitors using mechanically-compliant nanomembranes to encapsulate ultrathin molecular ensembles for the investigation of molecular dielectric properties. As the prototype material, copper (II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) has been chosen as information on its dielectric constant (k CuPc ) at the molecular scale is missing. Here, hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors containing metallic nanomembranes, insulating Al 2 O 3 layers, and the CuPc molecular ensembles have been fabricated and evaluated. The Al 2 O 3 is used to prevent short circuits through the capacitor plates as the molecular layer is considerably thin (<30 nm). From the electrical measurements of devices with molecular layers of different thicknesses, the CuPc dielectric constant has been reliably determined (k CuPc  = 4.5 ± 0.5). These values suggest a mild contribution of the molecular orientation on the CuPc dielectric properties. The reported nanomembrane-based capacitor is a viable strategy for the dielectric characterization of ultrathin molecular ensembles integrated into a practical, real device technology.

Hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors for the determination of the dielectric constant of semiconducting molecular ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrini, Paula A.; Silva, Ricardo M. L.; de Oliveira, Rafael F.; Merces, Leandro; Bof Bufon, Carlos C.

2018-06-01

Considerable advances in the field of molecular electronics have been achieved over the recent years. One persistent challenge, however, is the exploitation of the electronic properties of molecules fully integrated into devices. Typically, the molecular electronic properties are investigated using sophisticated techniques incompatible with a practical device technology, such as the scanning tunneling microscopy. The incorporation of molecular materials in devices is not a trivial task as the typical dimensions of electrical contacts are much larger than the molecular ones. To tackle this issue, we report on hybrid capacitors using mechanically-compliant nanomembranes to encapsulate ultrathin molecular ensembles for the investigation of molecular dielectric properties. As the prototype material, copper (II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) has been chosen as information on its dielectric constant (k CuPc) at the molecular scale is missing. Here, hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors containing metallic nanomembranes, insulating Al2O3 layers, and the CuPc molecular ensembles have been fabricated and evaluated. The Al2O3 is used to prevent short circuits through the capacitor plates as the molecular layer is considerably thin (<30 nm). From the electrical measurements of devices with molecular layers of different thicknesses, the CuPc dielectric constant has been reliably determined (k CuPc = 4.5 ± 0.5). These values suggest a mild contribution of the molecular orientation on the CuPc dielectric properties. The reported nanomembrane-based capacitor is a viable strategy for the dielectric characterization of ultrathin molecular ensembles integrated into a practical, real device technology.

Post-processing method for wind speed ensemble forecast using wind speed and direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofie Eide, Siri; Bjørnar Bremnes, John; Steinsland, Ingelin

2017-04-01

Statistical methods are widely applied to enhance the quality of both deterministic and ensemble NWP forecasts. In many situations, like wind speed forecasting, most of the predictive information is contained in one variable in the NWP models. However, in statistical calibration of deterministic forecasts it is often seen that including more variables can further improve forecast skill. For ensembles this is rarely taken advantage of, mainly due to that it is generally not straightforward how to include multiple variables. In this study, it is demonstrated how multiple variables can be included in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by using a flexible regression method for estimating the conditional means. The method is applied to wind speed forecasting at 204 Norwegian stations based on wind speed and direction forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble system. At about 85 % of the sites the ensemble forecasts were improved in terms of CRPS by adding wind direction as predictor compared to only using wind speed. On average the improvements were about 5 %, but mainly for moderate to strong wind situations. For weak wind speeds adding wind direction had more or less neutral impact.

A benchmark for reaction coordinates in the transition path ensemble

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The molecular mechanism of a reaction is embedded in its transition path ensemble, the complete collection of reactive trajectories. Utilizing the information in the transition path ensemble alone, we developed a novel metric, which we termed the emergent potential energy, for distinguishing reaction coordinates from the bath modes. The emergent potential energy can be understood as the average energy cost for making a displacement of a coordinate in the transition path ensemble. Where displacing a bath mode invokes essentially no cost, it costs significantly to move the reaction coordinate. Based on some general assumptions of the behaviors of reaction and bath coordinates in the transition path ensemble, we proved theoretically with statistical mechanics that the emergent potential energy could serve as a benchmark of reaction coordinates and demonstrated its effectiveness by applying it to a prototypical system of biomolecular dynamics. Using the emergent potential energy as guidance, we developed a committor-free and intuition-independent method for identifying reaction coordinates in complex systems. We expect this method to be applicable to a wide range of reaction processes in complex biomolecular systems. PMID:27059559

Genetic Feedback Regulation of Frontal Cortical Neuronal Ensembles Through Activity-Dependent Arc Expression and Dopaminergic Input.

PubMed

Mastwal, Surjeet; Cao, Vania; Wang, Kuan Hong

2016-01-01

Mental functions involve coordinated activities of specific neuronal ensembles that are embedded in complex brain circuits. Aberrant neuronal ensemble dynamics is thought to form the neurobiological basis of mental disorders. A major challenge in mental health research is to identify these cellular ensembles and determine what molecular mechanisms constrain their emergence and consolidation during development and learning. Here, we provide a perspective based on recent studies that use activity-dependent gene Arc/Arg3.1 as a cellular marker to identify neuronal ensembles and a molecular probe to modulate circuit functions. These studies have demonstrated that the transcription of Arc is activated in selective groups of frontal cortical neurons in response to specific behavioral tasks. Arc expression regulates the persistent firing of individual neurons and predicts the consolidation of neuronal ensembles during repeated learning. Therefore, the Arc pathway represents a prototypical example of activity-dependent genetic feedback regulation of neuronal ensembles. The activation of this pathway in the frontal cortex starts during early postnatal development and requires dopaminergic (DA) input. Conversely, genetic disruption of Arc leads to a hypoactive mesofrontal dopamine circuit and its related cognitive deficit. This mutual interaction suggests an auto-regulatory mechanism to amplify the impact of neuromodulators and activity-regulated genes during postnatal development. Such a mechanism may contribute to the association of mutations in dopamine and Arc pathways with neurodevelopmental psychiatric disorders. As the mesofrontal dopamine circuit shows extensive activity-dependent developmental plasticity, activity-guided modulation of DA projections or Arc ensembles during development may help to repair circuit deficits related to neuropsychiatric disorders.

Knowledge-Based Methods To Train and Optimize Virtual Screening Ensembles

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Ensemble docking can be a successful virtual screening technique that addresses the innate conformational heterogeneity of macromolecular drug targets. Yet, lacking a method to identify a subset of conformational states that effectively segregates active and inactive small molecules, ensemble docking may result in the recommendation of a large number of false positives. Here, three knowledge-based methods that construct structural ensembles for virtual screening are presented. Each method selects ensembles by optimizing an objective function calculated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: either the area under the ROC curve (AUC) or a ROC enrichment factor (EF). As the number of receptor conformations, N, becomes large, the methods differ in their asymptotic scaling. Given a set of small molecules with known activities and a collection of target conformations, the most resource intense method is guaranteed to find the optimal ensemble but scales as O(2N). A recursive approximation to the optimal solution scales as O(N2), and a more severe approximation leads to a faster method that scales linearly, O(N). The techniques are generally applicable to any system, and we demonstrate their effectiveness on the androgen nuclear hormone receptor (AR), cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2), and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor δ (PPAR-δ) drug targets. Conformations that consisted of a crystal structure and molecular dynamics simulation cluster centroids were used to form AR and CDK2 ensembles. Multiple available crystal structures were used to form PPAR-δ ensembles. For each target, we show that the three methods perform similarly to one another on both the training and test sets. PMID:27097522

JuPOETs: a constrained multiobjective optimization approach to estimate biochemical model ensembles in the Julia programming language.

PubMed

Bassen, David M; Vilkhovoy, Michael; Minot, Mason; Butcher, Jonathan T; Varner, Jeffrey D

2017-01-25

Ensemble modeling is a promising approach for obtaining robust predictions and coarse grained population behavior in deterministic mathematical models. Ensemble approaches address model uncertainty by using parameter or model families instead of single best-fit parameters or fixed model structures. Parameter ensembles can be selected based upon simulation error, along with other criteria such as diversity or steady-state performance. Simulations using parameter ensembles can estimate confidence intervals on model variables, and robustly constrain model predictions, despite having many poorly constrained parameters. In this software note, we present a multiobjective based technique to estimate parameter or models ensembles, the Pareto Optimal Ensemble Technique in the Julia programming language (JuPOETs). JuPOETs integrates simulated annealing with Pareto optimality to estimate ensembles on or near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We demonstrate JuPOETs on a suite of multiobjective problems, including test functions with parameter bounds and system constraints as well as for the identification of a proof-of-concept biochemical model with four conflicting training objectives. JuPOETs identified optimal or near optimal solutions approximately six-fold faster than a corresponding implementation in Octave for the suite of test functions. For the proof-of-concept biochemical model, JuPOETs produced an ensemble of parameters that gave both the mean of the training data for conflicting data sets, while simultaneously estimating parameter sets that performed well on each of the individual objective functions. JuPOETs is a promising approach for the estimation of parameter and model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. JuPOETs can be adapted to solve many problem types, including mixed binary and continuous variable types, bilevel optimization problems and constrained problems without altering the base algorithm. JuPOETs is open source, available under an MIT license, and can be installed using the Julia package manager from the JuPOETs GitHub repository.

Development and Validation of a Computational Model Ensemble for the Early Detection of BCRP/ABCG2 Substrates during the Drug Design Stage.

PubMed

Gantner, Melisa E; Peroni, Roxana N; Morales, Juan F; Villalba, María L; Ruiz, María E; Talevi, Alan

2017-08-28

Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter linked to the multidrug resistance phenomenon in many diseases such as epilepsy and cancer and a potential source of drug interactions. For these reasons, the early identification of substrates and nonsubstrates of this transporter during the drug discovery stage is of great interest. We have developed a computational nonlinear model ensemble based on conformational independent molecular descriptors using a combined strategy of genetic algorithms, J48 decision tree classifiers, and data fusion. The best model ensemble consists in averaging the ranking of the 12 decision trees that showed the best performance on the training set, which also demonstrated a good performance for the test set. It was experimentally validated using the ex vivo everted rat intestinal sac model. Five anticonvulsant drugs classified as nonsubstrates for BRCP by the model ensemble were experimentally evaluated, and none of them proved to be a BCRP substrate under the experimental conditions used, thus confirming the predictive ability of the model ensemble. The model ensemble reported here is a potentially valuable tool to be used as an in silico ADME filter in computer-aided drug discovery campaigns intended to overcome BCRP-mediated multidrug resistance issues and to prevent drug-drug interactions.

An ensemble framework for identifying essential proteins.

PubMed

Zhang, Xue; Xiao, Wangxin; Acencio, Marcio Luis; Lemke, Ney; Wang, Xujing

2016-08-25

Many centrality measures have been proposed to mine and characterize the correlations between network topological properties and protein essentiality. However, most of them show limited prediction accuracy, and the number of common predicted essential proteins by different methods is very small. In this paper, an ensemble framework is proposed which integrates gene expression data and protein-protein interaction networks (PINs). It aims to improve the prediction accuracy of basic centrality measures. The idea behind this ensemble framework is that different protein-protein interactions (PPIs) may show different contributions to protein essentiality. Five standard centrality measures (degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and subgraph centrality) are integrated into the ensemble framework respectively. We evaluated the performance of the proposed ensemble framework using yeast PINs and gene expression data. The results show that it can considerably improve the prediction accuracy of the five centrality measures individually. It can also remarkably increase the number of common predicted essential proteins among those predicted by each centrality measure individually and enable each centrality measure to find more low-degree essential proteins. This paper demonstrates that it is valuable to differentiate the contributions of different PPIs for identifying essential proteins based on network topological characteristics. The proposed ensemble framework is a successful paradigm to this end.

A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections

PubMed Central

Lindström, Tom; Tildesley, Michael; Webb, Colleen

2015-01-01

Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensemble prediction. A sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of prior can have a pronounced effect on the posterior estimates of quantities of interest, in particular for ensembles with large discrepancy among projections. However, by using a hierarchical extension of the method we show that prior sensitivity can be circumvented. We further extend the method to include a priori beliefs about different modeling assumptions and demonstrate that the effect of this can have different consequences depending on the discrepancy among projections. We propose that the method is a promising analytical tool for ensemble modeling of disease outbreaks. PMID:25927892

Closing the Loop for Memory Prostheses: Detecting the Role of Hippocampal Neural Ensembles Using Nonlinear Models

PubMed Central

Hampson, Robert E.; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H.M.; Sweatt, Andrew J.; Riley, Mitchell R.; Goonawardena, Anushka V.; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Gerhardt, Greg A.; Berger, Theodore W.; Deadwyler, Sam A.

2012-01-01

A major factor involved in providing closed loop feedback for control of neural function is to understand how neural ensembles encode online information critical to the final behavioral endpoint. This issue was directly assessed in rats performing a short-term delay memory task in which successful encoding of task information is dependent upon specific spatiotemporal firing patterns recorded from ensembles of CA3 and CA1 hippocampal neurons. Such patterns, extracted by a specially designed nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear mathematical model, were used to predict successful performance online via a closed loop paradigm which regulated trial difficulty (time of retention) as a function of the “strength” of stimulus encoding. The significance of the MIMO model as a neural prosthesis has been demonstrated by substituting trains of electrical stimulation pulses to mimic these same ensemble firing patterns. This feature was used repeatedly to vary “normal” encoding as a means of understanding how neural ensembles can be “tuned” to mimic the inherent process of selecting codes of different strength and functional specificity. The capacity to enhance and tune hippocampal encoding via MIMO model detection and insertion of critical ensemble firing patterns shown here provides the basis for possible extension to other disrupted brain circuitry. PMID:22498704

Model dependence and its effect on ensemble projections in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C.

2013-12-01

Conceptually, the notion of model dependence within climate model ensembles is relatively simple - modelling groups share a literature base, parametrisations, data sets and even model code - the potential for dependence in sampling different climate futures is clear. How though can this conceptual problem inform a practical solution that demonstrably improves the ensemble mean and ensemble variance as an estimate of system uncertainty? While some research has already focused on error correlation or error covariance as a candidate to improve ensemble mean estimates, a complete definition of independence must at least implicitly subscribe to an ensemble interpretation paradigm, such as the 'truth-plus-error', 'indistinguishable', or more recently 'replicate Earth' paradigm. Using a definition of model dependence based on error covariance within the replicate Earth paradigm, this presentation will show that accounting for dependence in surface air temperature gives cooler projections in CMIP5 - by as much as 20% globally in some RCPs - although results differ significantly for each RCP, especially regionally. The fact that the change afforded by accounting for dependence across different RCPs is different is not an inconsistent result. Different numbers of submissions to each RCP by different modelling groups mean that differences in projections from different RCPs are not entirely about RCP forcing conditions - they also reflect different sampling strategies.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Multiscale Macromolecular Simulation: Role of Evolving Ensembles

PubMed Central

Singharoy, A.; Joshi, H.; Ortoleva, P.J.

2013-01-01

Multiscale analysis provides an algorithm for the efficient simulation of macromolecular assemblies. This algorithm involves the coevolution of a quasiequilibrium probability density of atomic configurations and the Langevin dynamics of spatial coarse-grained variables denoted order parameters (OPs) characterizing nanoscale system features. In practice, implementation of the probability density involves the generation of constant OP ensembles of atomic configurations. Such ensembles are used to construct thermal forces and diffusion factors that mediate the stochastic OP dynamics. Generation of all-atom ensembles at every Langevin timestep is computationally expensive. Here, multiscale computation for macromolecular systems is made more efficient by a method that self-consistently folds in ensembles of all-atom configurations constructed in an earlier step, history, of the Langevin evolution. This procedure accounts for the temporal evolution of these ensembles, accurately providing thermal forces and diffusions. It is shown that efficiency and accuracy of the OP-based simulations is increased via the integration of this historical information. Accuracy improves with the square root of the number of historical timesteps included in the calculation. As a result, CPU usage can be decreased by a factor of 3-8 without loss of accuracy. The algorithm is implemented into our existing force-field based multiscale simulation platform and demonstrated via the structural dynamics of viral capsomers. PMID:22978601

Attosecond electron pulse trains and quantum state reconstruction in ultrafast transmission electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priebe, Katharina E.; Rathje, Christopher; Yalunin, Sergey V.; Hohage, Thorsten; Feist, Armin; Schäfer, Sascha; Ropers, Claus

2017-12-01

Ultrafast electron and X-ray imaging and spectroscopy are the basis for an ongoing revolution in the understanding of dynamical atomic-scale processes in matter. The underlying technology relies heavily on laser science for the generation and characterization of ever shorter pulses. Recent findings suggest that ultrafast electron microscopy with attosecond-structured wavefunctions may be feasible. However, such future technologies call for means to both prepare and fully analyse the corresponding free-electron quantum states. Here, we introduce a framework for the preparation, coherent manipulation and characterization of free-electron quantum states, experimentally demonstrating attosecond electron pulse trains. Phase-locked optical fields coherently control the electron wavefunction along the beam direction. We establish a new variant of quantum state tomography—`SQUIRRELS'—for free-electron ensembles. The ability to tailor and quantitatively map electron quantum states will promote the nanoscale study of electron-matter entanglement and new forms of ultrafast electron microscopy down to the attosecond regime.

Ultralong relaxation times in bistable hybrid quantum systems.

PubMed

Angerer, Andreas; Putz, Stefan; Krimer, Dmitry O; Astner, Thomas; Zens, Matthias; Glattauer, Ralph; Streltsov, Kirill; Munro, William J; Nemoto, Kae; Rotter, Stefan; Schmiedmayer, Jörg; Majer, Johannes

2017-12-01

Nonlinear systems, whose outputs are not directly proportional to their inputs, are well known to exhibit many interesting and important phenomena that have profoundly changed our technological landscape over the last 50 years. Recently, the ability to engineer quantum metamaterials through hybridization has allowed us to explore these nonlinear effects in systems with no natural analog. We investigate amplitude bistability, which is one of the most fundamental nonlinear phenomena, in a hybrid system composed of a superconducting resonator inductively coupled to an ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy centers. One of the exciting properties of this spin system is its long spin lifetime, which is many orders of magnitude longer than other relevant time scales of the hybrid system. This allows us to dynamically explore this nonlinear regime of cavity quantum electrodynamics and demonstrate a critical slowing down of the cavity population on the order of several tens of thousands of seconds-a time scale much longer than observed so far for this effect. Our results provide a foundation for future quantum technologies based on nonlinear phenomena.

Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

2014-05-01

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Felice, Matteo De; Catalano, Franco; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin-Ho; Weisheimer, Antije

2018-04-01

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. The above results demonstrate for the first time the potential of the Grand MME to significantly contribute in obtaining useful predictions at the seasonal time-scale.

Extracting foreground ensemble features to detect abnormal crowd behavior in intelligent video-surveillance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Yi-Tung; Wang, Shuenn-Jyi; Tsai, Chung-Hsien

2017-09-01

Public safety is a matter of national security and people's livelihoods. In recent years, intelligent video-surveillance systems have become important active-protection systems. A surveillance system that provides early detection and threat assessment could protect people from crowd-related disasters and ensure public safety. Image processing is commonly used to extract features, e.g., people, from a surveillance video. However, little research has been conducted on the relationship between foreground detection and feature extraction. Most current video-surveillance research has been developed for restricted environments, in which the extracted features are limited by having information from a single foreground; they do not effectively represent the diversity of crowd behavior. This paper presents a general framework based on extracting ensemble features from the foreground of a surveillance video to analyze a crowd. The proposed method can flexibly integrate different foreground-detection technologies to adapt to various monitored environments. Furthermore, the extractable representative features depend on the heterogeneous foreground data. Finally, a classification algorithm is applied to these features to automatically model crowd behavior and distinguish an abnormal event from normal patterns. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method's performance is both comparable to that of state-of-the-art methods and satisfies the requirements of real-time applications.

CATS Near Real Time Data Products: Applications for Assimilation Into the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hlavka, D. L.; Nowottnick, E. P.; Yorks, J. E.; Da Silva, A.; McGill, M. J.; Palm, S. P.; Selmer, P. A.; Pauly, R. M.; Ozog, S.

2017-01-01

From February 2015 through October 2017, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) backscatter lidar operated on the International Space Station (ISS) as a technology demonstration for future Earth Science Missions, providing vertical measurements of cloud and aerosols properties. Owing to its location on the ISS, a cornerstone technology demonstration of CATS was the capability to acquire, process, and disseminate near-real time (NRT) data within 6 hours of observation time. CATS NRT data has several applications, including providing notification of hazardous events for air traffic control and air quality advisories, field campaign flight planning, as well as for constraining cloud and aerosol distributions in via data assimilation in aerosol transport models.   Recent developments in aerosol data assimilation techniques have permitted the assimilation of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), a 2-dimensional column integrated quantity that is reflective of the simulated aerosol loading in aerosol transport models. While this capability has greatly improved simulated AOT forecasts, the vertical position, a key control on aerosol transport, is often not impacted when 2-D AOT is assimilated. Here, we present preliminary efforts to assimilate CATS aerosol observations into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model and assimilation system using a 1-D Variational (1-D VAR) ensemble approach, demonstrating the utility of CATS for future Earth Science Missions.

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.

PubMed

Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil

2016-10-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.

Correlated variability modifies working memory fidelity in primate prefrontal neuronal ensembles

PubMed Central

Leavitt, Matthew L.; Pieper, Florian; Sachs, Adam J.; Martinez-Trujillo, Julio C.

2017-01-01

Neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode working memory (WM) representations via sustained firing, a phenomenon hypothesized to arise from recurrent dynamics within ensembles of interconnected neurons. Here, we tested this hypothesis by using microelectrode arrays to examine spike count correlations (rsc) in LPFC neuronal ensembles during a spatial WM task. We found a pattern of pairwise rsc during WM maintenance indicative of stronger coupling between similarly tuned neurons and increased inhibition between dissimilarly tuned neurons. We then used a linear decoder to quantify the effects of the high-dimensional rsc structure on information coding in the neuronal ensembles. We found that the rsc structure could facilitate or impair coding, depending on the size of the ensemble and tuning properties of its constituent neurons. A simple optimization procedure demonstrated that near-maximum decoding performance could be achieved using a relatively small number of neurons. These WM-optimized subensembles were more signal correlation (rsignal)-diverse and anatomically dispersed than predicted by the statistics of the full recorded population of neurons, and they often contained neurons that were poorly WM-selective, yet enhanced coding fidelity by shaping the ensemble’s rsc structure. We observed a pattern of rsc between LPFC neurons indicative of recurrent dynamics as a mechanism for WM-related activity and that the rsc structure can increase the fidelity of WM representations. Thus, WM coding in LPFC neuronal ensembles arises from a complex synergy between single neuron coding properties and multidimensional, ensemble-level phenomena. PMID:28275096

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP

PubMed Central

Staras, Kevin

2016-01-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125

Intelligent postoperative morbidity prediction of heart disease using artificial intelligence techniques.

PubMed

Hsieh, Nan-Chen; Hung, Lun-Ping; Shih, Chun-Che; Keh, Huan-Chao; Chan, Chien-Hui

2012-06-01

Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is an advanced minimally invasive surgical technology that is helpful for reducing patients' recovery time, postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study proposes an ensemble model to predict postoperative morbidity after EVAR. The ensemble model was developed using a training set of consecutive patients who underwent EVAR between 2000 and 2009. All data required for prediction modeling, including patient demographics, preoperative, co-morbidities, and complication as outcome variables, was collected prospectively and entered into a clinical database. A discretization approach was used to categorize numerical values into informative feature space. Then, the Bayesian network (BN), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) were adopted as base models, and stacking combined multiple models. The research outcomes consisted of an ensemble model to predict postoperative morbidity after EVAR, the occurrence of postoperative complications prospectively recorded, and the causal effect knowledge by BNs with Markov blanket concept.

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

2017-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.