Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Changing stream temperatures in a changing world: evaluating spatio-temporal patterns and trends across the eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, C.; Archfield, S. A.

2016-12-01

Stream temperatures drive biogeochemical processes and influence ecosystem health and extent, with patterns of stream temperature arising from complex interactions between climate, land cover, and in-stream diversions and dams. While each of these individual drivers may have well-understood implications for changing stream temperatures, considering the concomitant impacts of these drivers along the stream network is much more difficult. This is true especially for the eastern United States, where downstream temperature integrates many different upstream impacts. To begin to decipher the influence of these different drivers on changing stream temperatures and how these impacts may manifest through time, we examined trends for 66 sites with continuous stream temperature measurements across the eastern United States. Stream temperature records were summarized as daily mean, maximum, and mimimum values, and sites consisting of 15 or more years of data were selected for analysis. While annual stream temperatures at 53 locations were warming, a few sites on larger rivers (n = 13) have been cooling. To explore the timing of these changes as well as their implications for aquatic species, we calculated trends for seasonal extremes (average of the five warmest and coolest daily stream temperatures) during spring, summer, and fall. Interestingly, while some streams displayed strong warming trends in peak summer temperatures (n = 43), many streams also displayed cooling trends (n = 23). We also found that peak stream temperatures were warming faster in fall than in summer for many locations (n = 36). Results of this analysis show that warming (and cooling) happens at different times in different places, as a function of climate and anthropogenic impacts. Finally, we explore potential drivers of these different patterns, to determine the relative impacts of climate, land cover, and in-stream water diversions on stream temperature change. Given that the number of regulated stream miles is only increasing, improving our understanding of linkages between landscape drivers and stream temperature variation may have important outcomes for river management in a changing world.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

Temporal and spatial variability in North Carolina piedmont stream temperature

Treesearch

J.L. Boggs; G. Sun; S.G. McNulty; W. Swartley; Treasure E.; W. Summer

2009-01-01

Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of in-stream temperature can provide useful information to managing future impacts of climate change on these systems. This study will compare temporal patterns and spatial variability of headwater in-stream temperature in six catchments in the piedmont of North Carolina in two different geological regions, Carolina slate...

Flight Investigation of the Cooling Characteristics of a Two-row Radial Engine Installation III : Engine Temperature Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rennak, Robert M; Messing, Wesley E; Morgan, James E

1946-01-01

The temperature distribution of a two-row radial engine in a twin-engine airplane has been investigated in a series of flight tests. The test engine was operated over a wide range of conditions at density altitudes of 5000 and 20,000 feet; quantitative results are presented showing the effects of flight and engine variables upon average engine temperature and over-all temperature spread. Discussions of the effect of the variables on the shape of the temperature patterns and on the temperature distribution of individual cylinders are also included. The results indicate that, for the tests conducted, the temperature distribution patterns were chiefly determined by the fuel-air ratio and cooling-air distributions. It was possible to calculate individual cylinder temperature, on the assumption of equal power distribution among cylinders, to within an average of plus or minus 14 degrees F. of the actual temperature. A considerable change occurred in either the spread or the thrust axis, the average engine fuel-air ratio, the engine speed, the power, or the blower ratio. Smaller effects on the temperature pattern were noticed with a change in cowl-flap opening and altitude. In most of the tests, a change in conditions affected the temperature of the barrels less than that of the heads. The variation of flight and engine variables had a negligible effect on the temperature distributions of the individual cylinders. (author)

All-Printed Differential Temperature Sensor for the Compensation of Bending Effects.

PubMed

Ali, Shawkat; Hassan, Arshad; Bae, Jinho; Lee, Chong Hyun; Kim, Juho

2016-11-08

Because printed resistance temperature detectors (RTDs) are affected by tension and compression of metallic patterns on flexible or curved surfaces, a significant temperature-sensing error occurs in general. Hence, we propose a differential temperature sensor (DTS) to compensate the bending effect of the printed RTDs, which is composed of two serially connected similar meander patterns fabricated back-to-back on a polyimide polyethylene terephthalate substrate through a Dimatix DMP-3000 inkjet printer using silver nanoparticles. Under mechanical deformation, the resistance of the proposed DTS is not varied significantly under the same temperature environment because its patterns vary differentially as one side experiences tension while the opposite side experiences compression. A single meander pattern of the proposed DTS has a total length of 75 mm and device dimensions of 7 × 7 mm 2 . The total resistance variation is observed to be 15.5 Ω against the temperature variation from 0 to 100 °C, and the temperature coefficient of resistance is 1.076 × 10 -3 °C -1 . The proposed DTS exhibits no significant resistance change on bendability testing down to 2 mm diameter because of mechanical deformation. In addition, it is also used to detect the curvature of a body shape down to 2 mm diameter because its resistance changes by ±8.22% using a single meander pattern of DTS. The proposed sensor can be applied on a curved or flexible surface to measure relatively accurate temperature when compared to a single meander pattern.

Spatial Patterns in Water Temperature in Pacific Northwest Rivers: Diversity at Multiple Scales and Potential Influence of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torgersen, C. E.; Fullerton, A.; Lawler, J. J.; Ebersole, J. L.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Steel, E. A.; Beechie, T. J.; Faux, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial patterns in water temperature will be essential for evaluating vulnerability of aquatic biota to future climate and for identifying and protecting diverse thermal habitats. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data for over 16,000 km of 2nd to 7th-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and California to evaluate spatial patterns of summertime water temperature at multiple spatial scales. We found a diverse and geographically distributed suite of whole-river patterns. About half of rivers warmed asymptotically in a downstream direction, whereas the rest exhibited complex and unique spatial patterns. Patterns were associated with both broad-scale hydroclimatic variables as well as characteristics unique to each basin. Within-river thermal heterogeneity patterns were highly river-specific; across rivers, median size and spacing of cool patches <15 °C were around 250 m. Patches of this size are large enough for juvenile salmon rearing and for resting during migration, and the distance between patches is well within the movement capabilities of both juvenile and adult salmon. We found considerable thermal heterogeneity at fine spatial scales that may be important to fish that would be missed if data were analyzed at coarser scales. We estimated future thermal heterogeneity and concluded that climate change will cause warmer temperatures overall, but that thermal heterogeneity patterns may remain similar in the future for many rivers. We demonstrated considerable spatial complexity in both current and future water temperature, and resolved spatial patterns that could not have been perceived without spatially continuous data.

Do Aphids Alter Leaf Surface Temperature Patterns During Early Infestation?

PubMed Central

Cahon, Thomas; Caillon, Robin

2018-01-01

Arthropods at the surface of plants live in particular microclimatic conditions that can differ from atmospheric conditions. The temperature of plant leaves can deviate from air temperature, and leaf temperature influences the eco-physiology of small insects. The activity of insects feeding on leaf tissues, may, however, induce changes in leaf surface temperatures, but this effect was only rarely demonstrated. Using thermography analysis of leaf surfaces under controlled environmental conditions, we quantified the impact of presence of apple green aphids on the temperature distribution of apple leaves during early infestation. Aphids induced a slight change in leaf surface temperature patterns after only three days of infestation, mostly due to the effect of aphids on the maximal temperature that can be found at the leaf surface. Aphids may induce stomatal closure, leading to a lower transpiration rate. This effect was local since aphids modified the configuration of the temperature distribution over leaf surfaces. Aphids were positioned at temperatures near the maximal leaf surface temperatures, thus potentially experiencing the thermal changes. The feedback effect of feeding activity by insects on their host plant can be important and should be quantified to better predict the response of phytophagous insects to environmental changes. PMID:29538342

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

2018-03-01

The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Classification of Thermal Patterns at Karst Springs and Cave Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luhmann, A.J.; Covington, M.D.; Peters, Albert J.; Alexander, S.C.; Anger, C.T.; Green, J.A.; Runkel, Anthony C.; Alexander, E.C.

2011-01-01

Thermal patterns of karst springs and cave streams provide potentially useful information concerning aquifer geometry and recharge. Temperature monitoring at 25 springs and cave streams in southeastern Minnesota has shown four distinct thermal patterns. These patterns can be divided into two types: those produced by flow paths with ineffective heat exchange, such as conduits, and those produced by flow paths with effective heat exchange, such as small fractures and pore space. Thermally ineffective patterns result when water flows through the aquifer before it can equilibrate to the rock temperature. Thermally ineffective patterns can be either event-scale, as produced by rainfall or snowmelt events, or seasonal scale, as produced by input from a perennial surface stream. Thermally effective patterns result when water equilibrates to rock temperature, and the patterns displayed depend on whether the aquifer temperature is changing over time. Shallow aquifers with seasonally varying temperatures display a phase-shifted seasonal signal, whereas deeper aquifers with constant temperatures display a stable temperature pattern. An individual aquifer may display more than one of these patterns. Since karst aquifers typically contain both thermally effective and ineffective routes, we argue that the thermal response is strongly influenced by recharge mode. ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

PubMed

Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2016-04-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

PubMed Central

Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2016-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

Nonlinear growth responses of Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest to summer temperatures in the past decade

EPA Science Inventory

Altered seasonal climate patterns resulting from global climate change could affect the productivity of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. This study examined seasonal patterns of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and plant available...

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns

2016-01-01

Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

PubMed

Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-09-06

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

PubMed Central

Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E.; Mueller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution. PMID:27597446

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Environmental change at Kartchner Caverns: trying to separate natural and anthropogenic changes

Treesearch

Rickard S. Toomey; Ginger Nolan

2005-01-01

Cave temperature and moisture levels are important factors in the environmental health of Kartchner Caverns. Monitoring indicates the cave has warmed and moisture levels have fallen over the past 14 years. Timing and patterns of change within the cave suggest that changes are due to development as a show cave. However, changes in other caves, surface temperature and...

Advances in Thin Film Thermocouple Durability Under High Temperature and Pressure Testing Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Lisa C.; Fralick, Gustave C.; Taylor, Keith F.

1999-01-01

Thin film thermocouples for measuring material surface temperature have been previously demonstrated on several material systems and in various hostile test environments. A well-developed thin film fabrication procedure utilizing shadow masking for patterning the sensors elements had produced thin films with sufficient durability for applications in high temperature and pressure environments that exist in air-breathing and hydrogen-fueled burner rig and engine test facilities. However, while shadow masking had been a reliable method for specimens with flat and gently curved surfaces, it had not been consistently reliable for use on test components with sharp contours. This work reports on the feasibility of utilizing photolithography processing for patterning thin film thermocouples. Because this patterning process required changes in the thin film deposition process from that developed for shadow masking, the effect of these changes on thin film adherence during burner rig testing was evaluated. In addition to the results of changing the patterning method, the effects on thin film adherence of other processes used in the thin film fabrication procedure is also presented.

Staying cool in a changing landscape: the influence of maximum daily ambient temperature on grizzly bear habitat selection.

PubMed

Pigeon, Karine E; Cardinal, Etienne; Stenhouse, Gordon B; Côté, Steeve D

2016-08-01

To fulfill their needs, animals are constantly making trade-offs among limiting factors. Although there is growing evidence about the impact of ambient temperature on habitat selection in mammals, the role of environmental conditions and thermoregulation on apex predators is poorly understood. Our objective was to investigate the influence of ambient temperature on habitat selection patterns of grizzly bears in the managed landscape of Alberta, Canada. Grizzly bear habitat selection followed a daily and seasonal pattern that was influenced by ambient temperature, with adult males showing stronger responses than females to warm temperatures. Cutblocks aged 0-20 years provided an abundance of forage but were on average 6 °C warmer than mature conifer stands and 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks. When ambient temperatures increased, the relative change (odds ratio) in the probability of selection for 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks decreased during the hottest part of the day and increased during cooler periods, especially for males. Concurrently, the probability of selection for 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks increased on warmer days. Following plant phenology, the odds of selecting 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks also increased from early to late summer while the odds of selecting 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks decreased. Our results demonstrate that ambient temperatures, and therefore thermal requirements, play a significant role in habitat selection patterns and behaviour of grizzly bears. In a changing climate, large mammals may increasingly need to adjust spatial and temporal selection patterns in response to thermal constraints.

Variations in West Antarctic Ice Front and Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature for 8 Years Duration in 2000s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Yu, J.; Wang, L.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

Changes in Antarctic ice sheet are caused by various reasons such as changes in Holocene climate, precipitation, and ocean temperature. Such issues of changes in ice sheet has been mainly focused on the Antarctic peninsula, and it is known that ice retreat of the area is caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. For the case of West Antarctica, ice front change research is relatively rarely conducted except the Pine island glacier area. This study has monitored ice front changes of West Antarctica and compared the patterns with the changes in brightness temperature based on remote sensing techniques. We used 2000 Radarsat-1 and 2008 Rasarsat-2 SAR data to delineate coastlines of whole West Antarctica based on the locally thresholding adaptive algorithm. The delineated coast lines are analyzed to figure out ice front change patterns between the duration. The variations in brightness temperature for the same duration are calculated based on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)'s Special Sensor Microwave/Images-Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSM/I-SSMIS) passive microwave data. The results show ice front of West Antarctica shows advancing trend except the pine island glacier area. The brightness temperature had decreasing trend during the study period. It infers that changes in ice front and brightness temperature of West Antarctica have considerable relationships. It is expected that a long term monitoring of the relationship would contribute understanding ice dynamics of West Antarctica significantly.

Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: Effects of scale and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fullerton, A.H.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawer, J.J.; Steel, E. A.; Ebersole, J.L.; Lee, S.Y.

2018-01-01

Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of impacts typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal thermal patterns in rivers. Patches of cooler water could serve as refuges for anadromous species like salmon that migrate during summer. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data to characterize summer thermal heterogeneity patterns for 11,308 km of second–seventh-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern California (USA). We evaluated (1) water temperature patterns at different spatial resolutions, (2) the frequency, size, and spacing of cool thermal patches suitable for Pacific salmon (i.e., contiguous stretches ≥ 0.25 km, ≤ 15 °C and ≥ 2 °C, aooler than adjacent water), and (3) potential influences of climate change on availability of cool patches. Thermal heterogeneity was nonlinearly related to the spatial resolution of water temperature data, and heterogeneity at fine resolution (< 1 km) would have been difficult to quantify without spatially continuous data. Cool patches were generally > 2.7 and < 13.0 km long, and spacing among patches was generally > 5.7 and < 49.4 km. Thermal heterogeneity varied among rivers, some of which had long uninterrupted stretches of warm water ≥ 20 °C, and others had many smaller cool patches. Our models predicted little change in future thermal heterogeneity among rivers, but within-river patterns sometimes changed markedly compared to contemporary patterns. These results can inform long-term monitoring programs as well as near-term climate-adaptation strategies.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010.

PubMed

Yang, Yuting; Guan, Huade; Shen, Miaogen; Liang, Wei; Jiang, Lei

2015-02-01

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change: Life history adaptation by a global whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, with rising temperature and carbon dioxide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Introduction: Climate change can have direct and indirect impacts on living organisms. A rise in ambient temperature and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations due to global warming may have assorted impacts on arthropods such as altered life cycles, altered reproductive patterns, and change...

Climate change and Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae): Impacts of temperature and carbon dioxide on life history

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is relevant to life around the globe. A rise in ambient temperature and CO2 may have various impacts on arthropods such as altered life cycles, modified reproductive patterns, and changes in distribution. The sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius), is a global agricultural...

Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K. C. Benita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or "anthropogenic" activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes...

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

The influence of environment, sex, and innate timing mechanisms on body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Lehmer, Erin M; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M; Van Horne, Beatrice

2003-01-01

Mechanisms that influence body temperature patterns in black-tailed prairie dogs are not well understood. Previous research on both free-ranging and laboratory populations of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) has suggested that reductions in ambient temperature and food and water deprivation are the primary factors that stimulate torpor in this species. In other species, however, torpor has been shown to be influenced by a multitude of factors, including innate circadian and circannual timing mechanisms, energy status, and reproductive behaviors. Our objective was to clarify the influence of weather, sex, and intrinsic timing mechanisms on the body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs. We monitored body temperatures of eight adult (>1 yr) prairie dogs from November 1999 to June 2000. Prairie dogs showed distinct daily and seasonal body temperature patterns, which reflected changes in ambient temperatures that occurred during these periods. These patterns of daily and seasonal heterothermy suggest that body temperature patterns of black-tailed prairie dogs may be driven by an innate timing mechanism. All prairie dogs entered torpor intermittently throughout winter and spring. Torpor bouts appeared to be influenced by precipitation and reductions in ambient temperature. Our results also suggest that reproductive behaviors and circadian timing may influence torpor in this species.

Lizard thermal trait variation at multiple scales: a review.

PubMed

Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Chown, Steven L

2014-01-01

Thermal trait variation is of fundamental importance to forecasting the impacts of environmental change on lizard diversity. Here, we review the literature for patterns of variation in traits of upper and lower sub-lethal temperature limits, temperature preference and active body temperature in the field, in relation to space, time and phylogeny. Through time, we focus on the direction and magnitude of trait change within days, among seasons and as a consequence of acclimation. Across space, we examine altitudinal and latitudinal patterns, incorporating inter-specific analyses at regional and global scales. This synthesis highlights the consistency or lack thereof, of thermal trait responses, the relative magnitude of change among traits and several knowledge gaps identified in the relationships examined. We suggest that physiological information is becoming essential for forecasting environmental change sensitivity of lizards by providing estimates of plasticity and evolutionary scope.

Linkage between global sea surface temperature and hydroclimatology of a major river basin of India before and after 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanayak, Sonali; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.; Nagesh Kumar, D.

2017-12-01

The frequent occurrence of flood and drought worldwide has drawn attention to assessing whether the hydroclimatology of major river basins has changed. The Mahanadi river basin (MRB) is the major source of fresh water for both Chattisgarh and Odisha states (71 million people approximately) in India. The MRB (141 600 km2 area) is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and variations in temperature and precipitation. In recent years, it has repeatedly faced adverse hydrometeorological conditions. Large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena have a substantial influence on river hydroclimatology. Hence global sea surface temperature (SST) linkage with the precipitation and surface temperature of the MRB was analyzed over the period 1950-2012. Significant changes in seasonal correlation patterns were witnessed from 1950-1980 (PR-80) to 1981-2012 (PO-80). The correlation was higher during PR-80 compared to PO-80 between the El Niño region SST versus the maximum temperature (T max) in all seasons except the pre-monsoon season and the minimum temperature (T min) in all seasons except the monsoon season. However, precipitation correlation changes are not prominent. Like the SST, the correlation patterns of sea level pressure with precipitation, T max and T min shifted conspicuously from PR-80 to PO-80. These shifts could be related to change in Pacific decadal SST patterns and anthropogenic effects. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis revealed that the observed changes in T min (pre-monsoon and monsoon season) during the second half of the 20th century cannot be explained solely by natural variability and can be attributed to an anthropogenic effect.

The relationship of meteorological patterns with changes in floristic richness along a large elevational gradient in a seasonally dry region of southern Mexico.

PubMed

Salas-Morales, Silvia H; Meave, Jorge A; Trejo, Irma

2015-12-01

Globally, climate is a fundamental driver of plant species' geographical distributions, yet we still lack a good understanding of climatic variation on tropical mountains and its consequences for elevational floristic patterns. In a seasonally dry region of southern Mexico, we analysed meteorological patterns along a large elevational gradient (0-3670 m a.s.l.) and examined their relationship with changes in floristic richness. Meteorological patterns were characterised using two data sources. First, climatic information was extracted from cartography and records from a few existing meteorological stations. Additionally, air temperature and humidity were recorded hourly during 1 year with data loggers, at sites representing 200-m elevation increments. Floristic information was extracted from a database containing 10,124 records of plant collections, and organized in 200-m elevational belts. Climatic charts distinguished three climate types along the gradient, all with marked rainfall seasonality, but these bore little correspondence with the information obtained with the data loggers. Mean annual air temperature decreased with increasing elevation (lapse rate of 0.542 °C 100 m(-1)). Thermal oscillation was minimum around 1400 m and increased towards both extremes of the gradient. Relative humidity opposed this pattern, with maxima between 800 and 1800 m, decreasing towards the highest elevations. An analysis of temperature frequency distributions revealed meteorological features undetectable from the annual or monthly means of this variable; despite an overall gradual transition of the proportions of time recorded at different temperatures, some changes did not conform to this pattern. The first discontinuity occurred between 1000-1200 m, where dominant temperatures shifted abruptly; also noticeable was an abrupt increase of the proportion of time elapsed at 0.1-10 °C between 2400 and 2600 m. Air temperature appears to be the most influential climatic factor driving elevational variation of plant species richness in this region.

Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2013-03-01

There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it is happening at higher latitudes. However, the identity of the species showing changes in their range of distribution was different.

Contribution of urban expansion and a changing climate to decline of a butterfly fauna.

PubMed

Casner, Kayce L; Forister, Matthew L; O'Brien, Joshua M; Thorne, James; Waetjen, David; Shapiro, Arthur M

2014-06-01

Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18-22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land-use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working-landscape area below which further loss of working-landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cryptic impacts of temperature variability on amphibian immune function.

PubMed

Terrell, Kimberly A; Quintero, Richard P; Murray, Suzan; Kleopfer, John D; Murphy, James B; Evans, Matthew J; Nissen, Bradley D; Gratwicke, Brian

2013-11-15

Ectothermic species living in temperate regions can experience rapid and potentially stressful changes in body temperature driven by abrupt weather changes. Yet, among amphibians, the physiological impacts of short-term temperature variation are largely unknown. Using an ex situ population of Cryptobranchus alleganiensis, an aquatic North American salamander, we tested the hypothesis that naturally occurring periods of temperature variation negatively impact amphibian health, either through direct effects on immune function or by increasing physiological stress. We exposed captive salamanders to repeated cycles of temperature fluctuations recorded in the population's natal stream and evaluated behavioral and physiological responses, including plasma complement activity (i.e. bacteria killing) against Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Aeromonas hydrophila. The best-fit model (ΔAICc=0, wi=0.9992) revealed 70% greater P. aeruginosa killing after exposure to variable temperatures and no evidence of thermal acclimation. The same model predicted 50% increased E. coli killing, but had weaker support (ΔAICc=1.8, wi=0.2882). In contrast, plasma defenses were ineffective against A. hydrophila, and other health indicators (leukocyte ratios, growth rates and behavioral patterns) were maintained at baseline values. Our data suggest that amphibians can tolerate, and even benefit from, natural patterns of rapid warming/cooling. Specifically, temperature variation can elicit increased activity of the innate immune system. This immune response may be adaptive in an unpredictable environment, and is undetectable by conventional health indicators (and hence considered cryptic). Our findings highlight the need to consider naturalistic patterns of temperature variation when predicting species' susceptibility to climate change.

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-05-12

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Cary D.; Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squared regression methods. We exploremore » the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90°N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5°C, but choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. As a result, this paper describes our library of least squared regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns.« less

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology

DOE PAGES

Lynch, Cary D.; Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2017-05-15

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squared regression methods. We exploremore » the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90°N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5°C, but choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. As a result, this paper describes our library of least squared regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns.« less

Amplified Late Pliocene terrestrial warmth in northern high latitudes from greater radiative forcing and closed Arctic Ocean gateways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Ran; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Fletcher, Tamara L.; Tabor, Clay R.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Brady, Esther C.

2017-05-01

Proxy reconstructions of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) suggest terrestrial temperatures were much warmer in the northern high latitudes (55°-90°N, referred to as NHL) than present-day. Climate models participating in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (PlioMIP1) tend to underestimate this warmth. For instance, the underestimate is ∼10 °C on average across NHL and up to 17 °C in the Canadian Arctic region in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Here, we explore potential mPWP climate forcings that might contribute to this mPWP mismatch. We carry out seven experiments to assess terrestrial temperature responses to Pliocene Arctic gateway closure, variations in CO2 level, and orbital forcing at millennial time scale. To better compare the full range of simulated terrestrial temperatures with sparse proxy data, we introduce a pattern recognition technique that simplifies the model surface temperatures to a few representative patterns that can be validate with the limited terrestrial proxy data. The pattern recognition technique reveals two prominent features of simulated Pliocene surface temperature responses. First, distinctive patterns of amplified warming occur in the NHL, which can be explained by lowered surface elevation of Greenland, pattern and amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and changing strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, patterns of surface temperature response are similar among experiments with different forcing mechanisms. This similarity is due to strong feedbacks from responses in surface albedo and troposphere water vapor content to sea ice changes, which overwhelm distinctions in forcings from changes in insolation, CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateway closure. By comparing CCSM4 simulations with proxy records, we demonstrate that both model and proxy records show similar patterns of mPWP NHL terrestrial warmth, but the model underestimates the magnitude. High insolation, greater CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateways closure each contributes to reduce the underestimate by enhancing the Arctic warmth of 1-2 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering proxy NHL warmth in the context of Pliocene Arctic gateway changes, and variations in insolation and CO2 forcing.

Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions

PubMed Central

Stanley, Steven M.

2010-01-01

Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins, where ∼90% of marine carbon burial occurs today, rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the δ13C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates, the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below ∼15°, and increased phytoplankton productivity during “icehouse” conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change. PMID:21041682

Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane; Gupta, Mukund; Bandoro, Justin; Santer, Benjamin; Fu, Qiang; Lin, Pu; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Doug; Mills, Michael

2017-08-01

Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979-2000) and the early 21st (2000-2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., "mirrored") patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000-2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

2016-04-01

Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

Diurnal and seasonal change in stem respiration of Larix principis-rupprechtii trees, northern China.

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Zhao, Miao; Xu, Xiangtao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Yin, Guodong; Piao, Shilong

2014-01-01

Stem respiration is a critical and uncertain component of ecosystem carbon cycle. Few studies reported diurnal change in stem respiration as well as its linkage with climate. In this study, we investigated the diurnal and seasonal change in stem respiration and its linkage with environmental factors, in larch plantations of northern China from 2010 to 2012. The stem respiration per unit surface area (RS) showed clear diurnal cycles, ranging from 1.65±0.10 to 2.69±0.15 µmol m(-2) s(-1), increased after 6∶00, peaked at 15∶00 and then decreased. Both stem temperature and air temperature show similar diurnal pattern, while the diurnal pattern of air relative humidity is just the opposite to Rs. Similar to the diurnal cycles, seasonal change in RS followed the pattern of stem temperature. RS increased from May (1.28±0.07 µmol m(-2) s(-1)) when the stem temperature was relatively low and peaked in July (3.02±0.10 µmol m(-2) s(-1)) when the stem temperature was also the highest. Further regression analyses show that RS exponentially increases with increasing temperature, and the Q10 of Rs at mid daytime (1.97±0.17 at 12∶00 and 1.96±0.10 at 15∶00) is significantly lower than that of mid nighttime (2.60±0.14 at 00∶00 and 2.71±0.25 at 03∶00) Q10. This result not only implies that Rs is more sensitive to night than day warming, but also highlights that temperature responses of Rs estimated by only daytime measurement can lead to underestimated stem respiration increase under global warming, especially considering that temperature increase is faster during nighttime.

Response of the Morus bombycis growing season to temperature and its latitudinal pattern in Japan.

PubMed

Doi, Hideyuki

2012-09-01

Changes in leaf phenology lengthen the growing season length (GSL, the days between leaf budburst and leaf fall) under the global warming. GSL and the leaf phenology response to climate change is one of the most important predictors of climate change effect on plants. Empirical evidence of climatic effects on GSL remains scarce, especially at a regional scale and the latitudinal pattern. This study analyzed the datasets of leaf budburst and fall phenology in Morus bombycis (Urticales), which were observed by the agency of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1953 to 2005 over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). In the present study, single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan were calculated and their spatial patterns using general linear models were tested. The results showed that the GSL extension was caused mainly by a delay in leaf fall phenology. Relationships between latitude and leaf phenological and GSL responses against air temperature were significantly negative. The response of leaf phenology and GSL to air temperature at lower latitudes was larger than that at higher latitudes. The findings indicate that GSL extension should be considered with regards to latitude and climate change.

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

Contrasting elevational diversity patterns for soil bacteria between two ecosystems divided by the treeline.

PubMed

Li, Guixiang; Xu, Guorui; Shen, Congcong; Tang, Yong; Zhang, Yuxin; Ma, Keming

2016-11-01

Above- and below-ground organisms are closely linked, but how elevational distribution pattern of soil microbes shifting across the treeline still remains unknown. Sampling of 140 plots with transect, we herein investigated soil bacterial distribution pattern from a temperate forest up to a subalpine meadow along an elevational gradient using Illumina sequencing. Our results revealed distinct elevational patterns of bacterial diversity above and below the treeline in responding to changes in soil conditions: a hollow elevational pattern in the forest (correlated with soil temperature, pH, and C:N ratio) and a significantly decreasing pattern in the meadow (correlated with soil pH, and available phosphorus). The bacterial community structure was also distinct between the forest and meadow, relating to soil pH in the forest and soil temperature in the meadow. Soil bacteria did not follow the distribution pattern of herb diversity, but bacterial community structure could be predicted by herb community composition. These results suggest that plant communities have an important influence on soil characteristics, and thus change the elevational distribution of soil bacteria. Our findings are useful for future assessments of climate change impacts on microbial community.

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Seasonal temperature variations influence tapetum mitosis patterns associated with reproductive fitness.

PubMed

Lavania, Umesh C; Basu, Surochita; Kushwaha, Jyotsana Singh; Lavania, Seshu

2014-09-01

Environmental stress in plants impacts many biological processes, including male gametogenesis, and affects several cytological mechanisms that are strongly interrelated. To understand the likely impact of rising temperature on reproductive fitness in the climate change regime, a study of tapetal mitosis and its accompanying meiosis over seasons was made to elucidate the influence of temperature change on the cytological events occurring during microsporogenesis. For this we used two species of an environmentally sensitive plant system, i.e., genus Cymbopogon Sprengel (Poaceae), namely Cymbopogon nardus (L.) Rendle var. confertiflorus (Steud.) Bor (2n = 20) and Cymbopogon jwaruncusha (Jones) Schult. (2n = 20). Both species flower profusely during extreme summer (48 °C) and mild winter (15 °C) but support low and high seed fertility, respectively, in the two seasons. We have shown that tapetal mitotic patterns over seasons entail differential behavior for tapetal mitosis. During the process of tapetum development there are episodes of endomitosis that form either (i) an endopolyploid genomically imbalanced uninucleate and multinucleate tapetum, and (or) (ii) an acytokinetic multinucleate genomically balanced tapetum, with the progression of meiosis in the accompanying sporogenous tissue. The relative frequency of occurrence of the two types of tapetum mitosis patterns is significantly different in the two seasons, and it is found to be correlated with the temperature conditions. Whereas, the former (genomically imbalanced tapetum) are prevalent during the hot summer, the latter (genomically balanced tapetum) are frequent under optimal conditions. Such a differential behaviour in tapetal mitosis vis-à-vis temperature change is also correspondingly accompanied by substantial disturbances or regularity in meiotic anaphase disjunction. Both species show similar patterns. The study underpins that tapetal mitotic behaviour per se could be a reasonable indicator to elucidate the effect of climate change on reproductive fitness.

Investigation of the 3D temperature distribution patterns above the Antarctic Peninsula using remote sensing data - A contribution for polar climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Höppner, Kathrin; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Diedrich, Erhard

2015-04-01

West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are in the focus of current studies on a changing environment and climate of the polar regions. A recently founded Junior Researchers Group at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) is studying changing processes in cryosphere and atmosphere above the Antarctic Peninsula. It is the aim of the group to make use of long-term remote sensing data sets of the land and ice surfaces and the atmosphere in order to characterize environmental changes in this highly sensitive region. One of the PhD projects focuses on the investigation of the 3D temperature distribution patterns above the Antarctic Peninsula. Temperature data sets ranging from MODIS land surface temperatures up to middle atmosphere data of AURA/MLS will be evaluated over the last approx. 12 years. This 3-dimensional view allows comprehensive investigations of the thermal structure and spatio-temporal characteristics of the southern polar atmosphere. Tropospheric data sets will be analyzed by multivariate statistical methods and will allow the identification of dominant atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their temporal variability. An overview of the data sets and first results will be presented.

Odor Sensing System Using Preconcentrator with Variable Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Isaka, Y; Nakamoto, Takamichi; Moriizumi, T

1999-01-01

An odor sensing system using QCM gas sensor array and pattern recognition technique is useful to identify various kinds of odors. A preconcentrator with variable temperature is promising to obtain further pattern separation after the appropriate temperature changes, whereas it has been so far used to enhance sensor sensitivity. After the preconcentrator collects the vapors, it is heated so that they can be thermally desorbed. The combination of the preconcentrator with the sensor array enhances the capability of discrimination among vapors since their desorption temperatures depend upon vapor kinds.

High temperature antenna development for space shuttle, volume 2. [space environment simulation effects on antenna radiation patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlman, E. A.

1974-01-01

An S-band antenna system and a group of off-the-shelf aircraft antenna were exposed to temperatures simulating shuttle orbital cold soak and entry heating. Radiation pattern and impedance measurements before and after exposure to the thermal environments were used to evaluate the electrical performance. The results of the electrical and thermal testing are given. Test data showed minor changes in electrical performance and established the capability of these antenna to withstand both the low temperatures of space flight and the high temperatures of entry.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Performance Simulation of a Flat-Plate Thermoelectric Module Consisting of Square Truncated Pyramid Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Sae; Suzuki, Ryosuke O.

2017-05-01

The performance of a flat-plate thermoelectric (TE) module consisting of square truncated pyramid elements is simulated using commercial software and original TE programs. Assuming that the temperatures of both the hot and cold surfaces are constant, the performance can be varied by changing the element shape and element alignment pattern. When the angle between the edge and the base is 85° and the small square surfaces of all n-type element faces are connected to the low-temperature surface, the efficiency becomes the largest among all the 17 examined shapes and patterns. By changing the shape to match the temperature distribution, the performance of the TE module is maximized.

Large Scale Relationship between Aquatic Insect Traits and Climate.

PubMed

Bhowmik, Avit Kumar; Schäfer, Ralf B

2015-01-01

Climate is the predominant environmental driver of freshwater assemblage pattern on large spatial scales, and traits of freshwater organisms have shown considerable potential to identify impacts of climate change. Although several studies suggest traits that may indicate vulnerability to climate change, the empirical relationship between freshwater assemblage trait composition and climate has been rarely examined on large scales. We compared the responses of the assumed climate-associated traits from six grouping features to 35 bioclimatic indices (~18 km resolution) for five insect orders (Diptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera and Trichoptera), evaluated their potential for changing distribution pattern under future climate change and identified the most influential bioclimatic indices. The data comprised 782 species and 395 genera sampled in 4,752 stream sites during 2006 and 2007 in Germany (~357,000 km² spatial extent). We quantified the variability and spatial autocorrelation in the traits and orders that are associated with the combined and individual bioclimatic indices. Traits of temperature preference grouping feature that are the products of several other underlying climate-associated traits, and the insect order Ephemeroptera exhibited the strongest response to the bioclimatic indices as well as the highest potential for changing distribution pattern. Regarding individual traits, insects in general and ephemeropterans preferring very cold temperature showed the highest response, and the insects preferring cold and trichopterans preferring moderate temperature showed the highest potential for changing distribution. We showed that the seasonal radiation and moisture are the most influential bioclimatic aspects, and thus changes in these aspects may affect the most responsive traits and orders and drive a change in their spatial distribution pattern. Our findings support the development of trait-based metrics to predict and detect climate-related changes of freshwater assemblages.

Anticipated water quality changes in response to climate change and potential consequences for inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Yushun; Todd, Andrew S.; Murphy, Margaret H.; Lomnicky, Gregg

2016-01-01

Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Changes anticipated with climate change in the future are likely to have a profound effect on inland aquatic ecosystems through diverse pathways, including changes in water quality. In this brief article, we present an initial discussion of several of the water quality responses that can be anticipated to occur within inland water bodies with climate change and how those changes are likely to impact fishes.

Observing temporal patterns of vertical flux through streambed sediments using time-series analysis of temperature records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautz, Laura K.

2012-09-01

SummaryRates of water exchange between surface water and groundwater (SW-GW) can be highly variable over time due to temporal changes in streambed hydraulic conductivity, storm events, and oscillation of stage due to natural and regulated river flow. There are few effective field methods available to make continuous measurements of SW-GW exchange rates with the temporal resolution required in many field applications. Here, controlled laboratory experiments were used to explore the accuracy of analytical solutions to the one-dimensional heat transport model for capturing temporal variability of flux through porous media from propagation of a periodic temperature signal to depth. Column experiments were used to generate one-dimensional flow of water and heat through saturated sand with a quasi-sinusoidal temperature oscillation at the upstream boundary. Measured flux rates through the column were compared to modeled flux rates derived using the computer model VFLUX and the amplitude ratio between filtered temperature records from two depths in the column. Imposed temporal changes in water flux through the column were designed to replicate observed patterns of flux in the field, derived using the same methodology. Field observations of temporal changes in flux were made over multiple days during a large-scale storm event and diurnally during seasonal baseflow recession. Temporal changes in flux that occur gradually over days, sub-daily, and instantaneously in time can be accurately measured using the one-dimensional heat transport model, although those temporal changes may be slightly smoothed over time. Filtering methods effectively isolate the time-variable amplitude and phase of the periodic temperature signal, effectively eliminating artificial temporal flux patterns otherwise imposed by perturbations of the temperature signal, which result from typical weather patterns during field investigations. Although previous studies have indicated that sub-cycle information from the heat transport model is not reliable, this laboratory experiment shows that the sub-cycle information is real and sub-cycle changes in flux can be observed using heat transport modeling. One-dimensional heat transport modeling provides an easy-to-implement, cost effective, reliable field tool for making continuous observations of SW-GW exchange through time, which may be particularly useful for monitoring exchange rates during storms and other conditions that create temporal change in hydraulic gradient across the streambed interface or change in streambed hydraulic conductivity.

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: description and methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Kravitz, Ben

2017-05-01

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squares regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90° N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern-predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5 °C, but the choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. This paper describes our library of least squares regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns. The dataset and netCDF data generation code are available at doi:10.5281/zenodo.495632.

Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang; Slamet S, Lilik

2018-05-01

Climate change is one of the most important issues being discussed globally. It caused by global warming and indirectly affecting the world climate cycle. This research discussed the effect of climate change on rainfall pattern of Sambas District and predicted the future rainfall pattern due to climate change. CRU and TRMM were used and has been validated using in situ data. This research was used Climate Modelling and Prediction using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) which also validated by in situ data (correlation= 0.81). The results show that temperature trends in Sambas regency increased to 0.082°C/yr from 1991-2014 according to CRU data. High temperature trigger changes in rainfall patterns. Rainfall pattern in Sambas District has an equatorial type where the peak occurs when the sun is right on the equator. Rainfall in Sambas reaches the maximum in March and September when the equinox occurs. The CCAM model is used to project rainfall in Sambas District in the future. The model results show that rainfall in Sambas District is projected to increase to 0.018 mm/month until 2055 so the flow rate increase 0.006 m3/month and the water balance increase 0.009 mm/month.

Seasonal patterns of body temperature and microhabitat selection in a lacertid lizard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Zaida; Pérez-Mellado, Valentín

2016-11-01

In temperate areas, seasonal changes entail a source of environmental variation potentially important for organisms. Temperate ectotherms may be adapted to the seasonal fluctuations in environmental traits. For lizards, behavioural adaptations regarding microhabitat selection could arise to improve thermoregulation during the different seasons. However, little is still known about which traits influence microhabitat selection of lizards and their adaptation to seasonality. Here we used Podarcis guadarramae to study the role of potential intrinsic (body size, sex, age) and environmental traits (air and substrate temperatures, wind speed, and sunlight) in the seasonal changes of body temperatures and microhabitat selection of lizards. We measured body temperatures of lizards in the same habitat during the four seasons and compared the climatic variables of the microhabitats selected by lizards with the mean climatic conditions available in their habitat. Body temperatures were similar for adult males, adult females, and juveniles within each season, being significantly higher in summer than in the other seasons, and in spring than in winter. The same pattern was found regarding substrate and air temperatures of the selected microhabitats. Wind speed and air temperature did not affect body temperatures, while body length was marginally significant and substrate temperatures and season did affect the body temperatures of lizards. Our results during the whole year support the idea that the seasonality could be the most important factor affecting body temperatures of these temperate species. Regarding microhabitat selection, environmental constraints, as environmental temperatures and wind speed, affected the seasonal changes on behavioural thermoregulation of lizards. This effect was similar between sexes and age classes, and was independent of body size. In addition, importance of sunlight exposure of the selected microhabitats (full sun, filtered sun, or shade) also changed between seasons. Hence, environmental constraints were the main forces driving seasonal changes in microhabitat selection.

Latitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Hunt, Gene; Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2012-01-01

High tropical and low polar biodiversity is one of the most fundamental patterns characterising marine ecosystems, and the influence of temperature on such marine latitudinal diversity gradients is increasingly well documented. However, the temporal stability of quantitative relationships among diversity, latitude and temperature is largely unknown. Herein we document marine zooplankton species diversity patterns at four time slices [modern, Last Glacial Maximum (18 000 years ago), last interglacial (120 000 years ago), and Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago)] and show that, although the diversity-latitude relationship has been dynamic, diversity-temperature relationships are remarkably constant over the past three million years. These results suggest that species diversity is rapidly reorganised as species' ranges respond to temperature change on ecological time scales, and that the ecological impact of future human-induced temperature change may be partly predictable from fossil and paleoclimatological records.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.; Valderrama, Anayansí; Saldaña, Azael

2014-01-01

Background Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission. Methodology and Findings We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases. Conclusion Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations. PMID:25275503

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Patterns of Community Change among Ammonia Oxidizers in Meadow Soils upon Long-Term Incubation at Different Temperatures

PubMed Central

Avrahami, Sharon; Conrad, Ralf

2003-01-01

The effect of temperature on the community structure of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria was investigated in three different meadow soils. Two of the soils (OMS and GMS) were acidic (pH 5.0 to 5.8) and from sites in Germany with low annual mean temperature (about 10°C), while KMS soil was slightly alkaline (pH 7.9) and from a site in Israel with a high annual mean temperature (about 22°C). The soils were fertilized and incubated for up to 20 weeks in a moist state and as a buffered (pH 7) slurry amended with urea at different incubation temperatures (4 to 37°C). OMS soil was also incubated with less fertilizer than the other soils. The community structure of ammonia oxidizers was analyzed before and after incubation by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of the amoA gene, which codes for the α subunit of ammonia monooxygenase. All amoA gene sequences found belonged to the genus Nitrosospira. The analysis showed community change due to temperature both in moist soil and in the soil slurry. Two patterns of community change were observed. One pattern was a change between the different Nitrosospira clusters, which was observed in moist soil and slurry incubations of GMS and OMS. Nitrosospira AmoA cluster 1 was mainly detected below 30°C, while Nitrosospira cluster 4 was predominant at 25°C. Nitrosospira clusters 3a, 3b, and 9 dominated at 30°C. The second pattern, observed in KMS, showed a community shift predominantly within a single Nitrosospira cluster. The sequences of the individual DGGE bands that exhibited different trends with temperature belonged almost exclusively to Nitrosospira cluster 3a. We conclude that ammonia oxidizer populations are influenced by temperature. In addition, we confirmed previous observations that N fertilizer also influences the community structure of ammonia oxidizers. Thus, Nitrosospira cluster 1 was absent in OMS soil treated with less fertilizer, while Nitrosospira cluster 9 was only found in the sample given less fertilizer. PMID:14532075

Thermal and athermal crackling noise in ferroelastic nanostructures.

PubMed

Zhao, Z; Ding, X; Sun, J; Salje, E K H

2014-04-09

The evolution of ferroelastic microstructures under external shear is determined by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations in two and three dimensions. Ferroelastic pattern formation was found to be almost identical in two and three dimensions, with only the ferroelastic transition temperature changing. The twin patterns generated by shear deformation depend strongly on temperature, with high wall densities nucleating under optimized temperature conditions. The dynamical tweed and mobile kink movement inside the twin walls is continuous and thermally activated at high temperatures, and becomes jerky and athermal at low temperatures. With decreasing temperature, the statistical distributions of dynamical tweed and kinks vary from a Vogel-Fulcher law P(E)~exp-(E/(T-TVF)) to an athermal power-law distribution P(E)~E-E. During the yield event, the nucleation of needles and kinks is always jerky, and the energy of the jerks is power-law distributed. Low-temperature yield proceeds via one large avalanche. With increasing temperature, the large avalanche is thermally broken up into a multitude of small segments. The power-law exponents reflect the changes in temperature, even in the athermal regime.

Thin film diamond temperature sensor array for harsh aerospace environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aslam, M.; Masood, A.; Fredricks, R. J.; Tamor, M. A.

1992-01-01

The feasibility of using polycrystalline CVD diamond films as temperature sensors in harsh aerospace environment associated with hypersonic flights was tested using patterned diamond resistors, fabricated on flat or curved oxidized Si surfaces, as temperature sensors at temperatures between 20 and 1000 C. In this temperature range, the measured resistance was found to vary over 3 orders of magnitude and the temperature coefficient of resistance to change from 0.017/K to 0.003/K. After an annealing treatment, the resistance change was reproducible within 1 percent on the entire temperature range for short measuring times.

Classifying Urban Space Types of Seoul using Time-series Heat Island map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, S.; KIM, H.; JE, M.

2017-12-01

In August 2016, the hottest heat occurred in Korea since the weather observation started in Korea. Due to climate changes, this heat phenomenon is expected to be severe more in the future. Thus, this study analyzed the heatwave occurred in 2016 with regard to Seoul from various angles to identify the characteristics of urban regions where the heat island phenomenon occurred. To do this, first, temperature data for two days on August 6 and 12 in 2016 when the hottest heatwave occurred were collected from 287 places of automatic weather stations (AWS) installed in Seoul and adjacent suburbs. The temperature distribution of Seoul was mapped using interpolation in every hour using the collected temperature data. Second, regions in Seoul were classified using statistical methods based on spatial characteristics such as land coverage, density, use type, and traffic volume in Seoul. Third, a daily pattern of change in temperature in the classified regions was depicted with a graph, and regions were re-classified based on the daily pattern of change in temperature. Finally, the characteristics of the classified regions were re-reviewed and then, heat island occurrence, continuation, and reduction measure by region type were discussed. The analysis results showed that a pattern of heatwave occurrence was exhibited differently by the classified region type. The results also showed that not only physical characteristics such as land coverage but also socioeconomic index such as population density and floating population that induced a traffic volume influenced the pattern of heatwave occurrence despite of the same land usage regions. This study not only classified urban climate regions by existing mean temperature and specific time-point temperature but also proposed a methodology that analyzed heat island phenomenon inside cities by using time-series temperature data in a day. Furthermore, this study enabled regional classification based on heat island characteristics to contribute to establishment of measure for each regional classification.

Patterns of activity and body temperature of Aldabra giant tortoises in relation to environmental temperature.

PubMed

Falcón, Wilfredo; Baxter, Rich P; Furrer, Samuel; Bauert, Martin; Hatt, Jean-Michel; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Ozgul, Arpat; Bunbury, Nancy; Clauss, Marcus; Hansen, Dennis M

2018-02-01

We studied the temperature relations of wild and zoo Aldabra giant tortoises ( Aldabrachelys gigantea ) focusing on (1) the relationship between environmental temperature and tortoise activity patterns ( n  = 8 wild individuals) and (2) on tortoise body temperature fluctuations, including how their core and external body temperatures vary in relation to different environmental temperature ranges (seasons; n  = 4 wild and n  = 5 zoo individuals). In addition, we surveyed the literature to review the effect of body mass on core body temperature range in relation to environmental temperature in the Testudinidae. Diurnal activity of tortoises was bimodally distributed and influenced by environmental temperature and season. The mean air temperature at which activity is maximized was 27.9°C, with a range of 25.8-31.7°C. Furthermore, air temperature explained changes in the core body temperature better than did mass, and only during the coldest trial, did tortoises with higher mass show more stable temperatures. Our results, together with the overall Testudinidae overview, suggest that, once variation in environmental temperature has been taken into account, there is little effect of mass on the temperature stability of tortoises. Moreover, the presence of thermal inertia in an individual tortoise depends on the environmental temperatures, and we found no evidence for inertial homeothermy. Finally, patterns of core and external body temperatures in comparison with environmental temperatures suggest that Aldabra giant tortoises act as mixed conformer-regulators. Our study provides a baseline to manage the thermal environment of wild and rewilded populations of an important island ecosystem engineer species in an era of climate change.

High temperatures disrupt Artemia franciscana mating patterns and impact sexual selection intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Maria R.; Vieira, Natividade; Monteiro, Nuno M.

2018-07-01

Temperature plays a critical role in survival and reproduction, especially in ectotherms. Therefore, it is important to understand the mechanisms influencing life history traits and reproductive behaviours in order to predict climate change impacts on species' occurrence and performance. Here, we used the crustacean Artemia franciscana to investigate the potential impacts of temperature on life history traits, mating patterns and intensity of sexual selection. We reared A. franciscana at three temperatures 20 °C, 25 °C, and 30 °C and measured life history traits such as growth, mortality or development of sexual traits. Our observations confirmed a clear link between life history traits and temperature, with advanced sexual maturity and increased mortality rates following temperature rises. Also, we found that mating is size assortative close to the ideal developmental temperature. Nevertheless, when temperatures deviate from the optimum, mating patterns were altered. Although selection intensity for females remained similar at all tested temperatures, as males preferentially mated with the larger females, size assortative mating disappeared at the highest temperature. Overall, our results highlight the potential for a temperature-dependent disruption of A. franciscana mating patterns. This disruption is especially pronounced under high temperatures as reproduction becomes progressively more random, thus entailing a relaxation of sexual selection intensity.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Combining multiple approaches and optimized data resolution for an improved understanding of stream temperature dynamics of a forested headwater basin in the Southern Appalachians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belica, L.; Mitasova, H.; Caldwell, P.; McCarter, J. B.; Nelson, S. A. C.

2017-12-01

Thermal regimes of forested headwater streams continue to be an area of active research as climatic, hydrologic, and land cover changes can influence water temperature, a key aspect of aquatic ecosystems. Widespread monitoring of stream temperatures have provided an important data source, yielding insights on the temporal and spatial patterns and the underlying processes that influence stream temperature. However, small forested streams remain challenging to model due to the high spatial and temporal variability of stream temperatures and the climatic and hydrologic conditions that drive them. Technological advances and increased computational power continue to provide new tools and measurement methods and have allowed spatially explicit analyses of dynamic natural systems at greater temporal resolutions than previously possible. With the goal of understanding how current stream temperature patterns and processes may respond to changing landcover and hydroclimatoligical conditions, we combined high-resolution, spatially explicit geospatial modeling with deterministic heat flux modeling approaches using data sources that ranged from traditional hydrological and climatological measurements to emerging remote sensing techniques. Initial analyses of stream temperature monitoring data revealed that high temporal resolution (5 minutes) and measurement resolutions (<0.1°C) were needed to adequately describe diel stream temperature patterns and capture the differences between paired 1st order and 4th order forest streams draining north and south facing slopes. This finding along with geospatial models of subcanopy solar radiation and channel morphology were used to develop hypotheses and guide field data collection for further heat flux modeling. By integrating multiple approaches and optimizing data resolution for the processes being investigated, small, but ecologically significant differences in stream thermal regimes were revealed. In this case, multi-approach research contributed to the identification of the dominant mechanisms driving stream temperature in the study area and advanced our understanding of the current thermal fluxes and how they may change as environmental conditions change in the future.

A deployment of fine-grained sensor network and empirical analysis of urban temperature.

PubMed

Thepvilojanapong, Niwat; Ono, Takahiro; Tobe, Yoshito

2010-01-01

Temperature in an urban area exhibits a complicated pattern due to complexity of infrastructure. Despite geographical proximity, structures of a group of buildings and streets affect changes in temperature. To investigate the pattern of fine-grained distribution of temperature, we installed a densely distributed sensor network called UScan. In this paper, we describe the system architecture of UScan as well as experience learned from installing 200 sensors in downtown Tokyo. The field experiment of UScan system operated for two months to collect long-term urban temperature data. To analyze the collected data in an efficient manner, we propose a lightweight clustering methodology to study the correlation between the pattern of temperature and various environmental factors including the amount of sunshine, the width of streets, and the existence of trees. The analysis reveals meaningful results and asserts the necessity of fine-grained deployment of sensors in an urban area.

Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield.

PubMed

Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V; Damianidis, Damianos

2016-07-19

Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha(-1)year(-1) (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.

Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

Dynamic changes in ear temperature in relation to separation distress in dogs.

PubMed

Riemer, Stefanie; Assis, Luciana; Pike, Thomas W; Mills, Daniel S

2016-12-01

Infrared thermography can visualize changes in body surface temperature that result from stress-induced physiological changes and alterations of blood flow patterns. Here we explored its use for remote stress monitoring (i.e. removing need for human presence) in a sample of six pet dogs. Dogs were tested in a brief separation test involving contact with their owner, a stranger, and social isolation for two one-minute-periods. Tests were filmed using a thermographic camera set up in a corner of the room, around 7m from where the subjects spent most of the time. Temperature was measured from selected regions of both ear pinnae simultaneously. Temperatures of both ear pinnae showed a pattern of decrease during separation and increase when a person (either the owner or a stranger) was present, with no lateralized temperature differences between the two ears. Long distance thermographic measurement is a promising technique for non-invasive remote stress assessment, although there are some limitations related to dogs' hair structure over the ears, making it unsuitable for some subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alteration of protein patterns in black rock inhabiting fungi as a response to different temperatures

PubMed Central

Tesei, Donatella; Marzban, Gorji; Zakharova, Kristina; Isola, Daniela; Selbmann, Laura; Sterflinger, Katja

2012-01-01

Rock inhabiting fungi are among the most stress tolerant organisms on Earth. They are able to cope with different stressors determined by the typical conditions of bare rocks in hot and cold extreme environments. In this study first results of a system biological approach based on two-dimensional protein profiles are presented. Protein patterns of extremotolerant black fungi – Coniosporium perforans, Exophiala jeanselmei – and of the extremophilic fungus – Friedmanniomyces endolithicus – were compared with the cosmopolitan and mesophilic hyphomycete Penicillium chrysogenum in order to follow and determine changes in the expression pattern under different temperatures. The 2D protein gels indicated a temperature dependent qualitative change in all the tested strains. Whereas the reference strain P. chrysogenum expressed the highest number of proteins at 40 °C, thus exhibiting real signs of temperature induced reaction, black fungi, when exposed to temperatures far above their growth optimum, decreased the number of proteins indicating a down-regulation of their metabolism. Temperature of 1 °C led to an increased number of proteins in all of the analysed strains, with the exception of P. chrysogenum. These first results on temperature dependent reactions in rock inhabiting black fungi indicate a rather different strategy to cope with non-optimal temperature than in the mesophilic hyphomycete P. chrysogenum. PMID:22862921

Thermal motion of a nonlinear localized pattern in a quasi-one-dimensional system.

PubMed

Dessup, Tommy; Coste, Christophe; Saint Jean, Michel

2016-07-01

We study the dynamics of localized nonlinear patterns in a quasi-one-dimensional many-particle system near a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation. The normal form at the bifurcation is given and we show that these patterns can be described as solitary-wave envelopes. They are stable in a large temperature range and can diffuse along the chain of interacting particles. During their displacements the particles are continually redistributed on the envelope. This change of particle location induces a small modulation of the potential energy of the system, with an amplitude that depends on the transverse confinement. At high temperature, this modulation is irrelevant and the thermal motion of the localized patterns displays all the characteristics of a free quasiparticle diffusion with a diffusion coefficient that may be deduced from the normal form. At low temperature, significant physical effects are induced by the modulated potential. In particular, the localized pattern may be trapped at very low temperature. We also exhibit a series of confinement values for which the modulation amplitudes vanishes. For these peculiar confinements, the mean-square displacement of the localized patterns also evidences free-diffusion behavior at low temperature.

Ecohydrological responses of a model semiarid system to precipitation pulses after a global change type dry-down depend on growth-form, event size, and time since establishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Potts, D. L.

2012-12-01

Woody encroachment into grasslands alters ecosystem structure and function both above- and belowground. Aboveground, woody plant canopies increase leaf area index and alter patterns of interception, infiltration and runoff. Belowground, woody plants alter root distribution and increase maximum rooting depth with the effect of accessing deeper pools of soil moisture and shifting the timing and duration of evapotranspiration. In turn, these woody plants mediate hydrological changes that influence patterns of ecosystem CO2 exchange and productivity. Given projections of more variable precipitation and increased temperatures for many semiarid regions, differences in physiological performance are likely to drive changes in ecosystem-scale carbon and water flux depending on the degree of woody cover. Ultimately, as soil moisture declines with decreased precipitation, differential patterns of environmental sensitivity among growth-forms and their dependence on groundwater will only become more important in determining ecosystem resilience to future change. Here, we created a series of 1-meter deep mesocosms that housed either a woody mesquite shrub, a bunchgrass, or was left as bare soil. Five replicates of each were maintained under current ambient air temperatures, and five replicates were maintained under projected (+4oC) air temperatures. Each mesocosm was outfitted with an array of soil moisture, temperature, water potential, and CO2 exchange concentration sensors at the near-surface, 30, 55, and 80cm depths to quantify patterns of soil moisture and respiratory CO2 exchange efflux in response to rainfall events of varying magnitude and intervening dry periods of varying duration. In addition, we used minirhizotrons to quantify the response of roots to episodic rainfall. During the first year, bunchgrasses photosynthetically outperformed mesquite saplings across a wider range of temperatures under dry conditions, regardless of growth temperature (ambient or +4oC). Both growth forms were similarly responsive to episodic rainfall, regardless of event magnitude, though mesquite were able to maintain photosynthetic function for a longer period in response to each rain. However, in the second year of the experiment a new pattern of response to moisture and high temperature stress emerged. Under dry conditions, mesquite sustained high photosynthetic rates across a wider range of atmospheric temperatures and were less responsive to rainfall, regardless of event magnitude. In contrast, the limiting effect of high temperatures on bunchgrass photosynthesis was soil moisture dependent. In this case, the effects of high temperature limitation were exaggerated under dry conditions and relaxed when soil moisture was more abundant. Together, these trends yielded a significantly greater photosynthetic assimilation by deeper-rooted mesquite shrubs than shallow-rooted bunchgrasses under both temperature regimes. Combining these aboveground measurements of carbon uptake with belowground estimates of carbon efflux will allow us to make much more informed projections of net carbon balance within mixed vegetation shrublands across a range of global climate change projections.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Connectivity planning to address climate change.

PubMed

Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2013-04-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

PubMed

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

The effect of a change in sleep-wakefulness timing, bright light and physical exercise interventions on 24-hour patterns of performance, mood and body temperature.

PubMed

Iskra-Golec, I; Fafrowicz, M; Marek, T; Costa, G; Folkard, S; Foret, J; Kundi, M; Smith, L

2001-12-01

Experiments consisting of baseline, bright light and physical exercise studies were carried out to compare the effect of a 9-hour delay in sleep-wakefulness timing, and the effects of bright light and physical exercise interventions on 24-hour patterns of performance, mood and body temperature were examined. Each study comprised a 24-hour constant routine at the beginning followed by 3 night shifts and 24-hour constant routine at the end. Performance on tasks differing in cognitive load, mood and body temperature was measured during each constant routine and the interventions were applied during the night shifts. The 24-hour pattern of alertness and performance on the tasks with low cognitive load in post-treatment conditions followed the change in sleep-wakefulness timing while more cognitively loaded tasks tended to show a reverse trend when compared to pre-treatment conditions. There was a phase delay around 4 hours in circadian rhythms of body temperature in post-treatment conditions.

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

Method of lift-off patterning thin films in situ employing phase change resists

DOEpatents

Bahlke, Matthias Erhard; Baldo, Marc A; Mendoza, Hiroshi Antonio

2014-09-23

Method for making a patterned thin film of an organic semiconductor. The method includes condensing a resist gas into a solid film onto a substrate cooled to a temperature below the condensation point of the resist gas. The condensed solid film is heated selectively with a patterned stamp to cause local direct sublimation from solid to vapor of selected portions of the solid film thereby creating a patterned resist film. An organic semiconductor film is coated on the patterned resist film and the patterned resist film is heated to cause it to sublime away and to lift off because of the phase change.

Apparent changes in body insulation of juvenile king penguins suggest an energetic challenge during their early life at sea.

PubMed

Enstipp, Manfred R; Bost, Charles-André; Le Bohec, Céline; Bost, Caroline; Le Maho, Yvon; Weimerskirch, Henri; Handrich, Yves

2017-07-15

Little is known about the early life at sea of marine top predators, like deep-diving king penguins ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ), although this dispersal phase is probably a critical phase in their life. Apart from finding favourable foraging sites, they have to develop effective prey search patterns as well as physiological capacities that enable them to capture sufficient prey to meet their energetic needs. To investigate the ontogeny of their thermoregulatory responses at sea, we implanted 30 juvenile king penguins and 8 adult breeders with a small data logger that recorded pressure and subcutaneous temperature continuously for up to 2.5 years. We found important changes in the development of peripheral temperature patterns of foraging juvenile king penguins throughout their first year at sea. Peripheral temperature during foraging bouts fell to increasingly lower levels during the first 6 months at sea, after which it stabilized. Most importantly, these changes re-occurred during their second year at sea, after birds had fasted for ∼4 weeks on land during their second moult. Furthermore, similar peripheral temperature patterns were also present in adult birds during foraging trips throughout their breeding cycle. We suggest that rather than being a simple consequence of concurrent changes in dive effort or an indication of a physiological maturation process, these seasonal temperature changes mainly reflect differences in thermal insulation. Heat loss estimates for juveniles at sea were initially high but declined to approximately half after ∼6 months at sea, suggesting that juvenile king penguins face a strong energetic challenge during their early oceanic existence. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-09-01

This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia.

Influence of environmental factors on activity patterns of Incisitermes minor (Isoptera: Kalotermitidae) in naturally infested logs.

PubMed

Lewis, Vernard R; Leighton, Shawn; Tabuchi, Robin; Baldwin, James A; Haverty, Michael I

2013-02-01

Acoustic emission (AE) activity patterns were measured from seven loquat [Eriobotrya japonica (Thunb.) Lindl.] logs, five containing live western drywood termite [Incisitermes minor (Hagen)] infestations, and two without an active drywood termite infestation. AE activity, as well as temperature, were monitored every 3 min under unrestricted ambient conditions in a small wooden building, under unrestricted ambient conditions but in constant darkness, or in a temperature-controlled cabined under constant darkness. Logs with active drywood termite infestations displayed similar diurnal cycles of AE activity that closely followed temperature with a peak of AE activity late in the afternoon (1700-1800 hours). When light was excluded from the building, a circadian pattern continued and apparently was driven by temperature. When the seven logs were kept at a relatively constant temperature (approximately 23 +/- 0.9 degrees C) and constant darkness, the pattern of activity was closely correlated with temperature, even with minimal changes in temperature. Temperature is the primary driver of activity of these drywood termites, but the effects are different when temperature is increasing or decreasing. At constant temperature, AE activity was highly correlated with the number of termites in the logs. The possible implications of these findings on our understanding of drywood termite biology and how this information may affect inspections and posttreatment evaluations are discussed.

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change.

PubMed

Ospina-Alvarez, Natalia; Piferrer, Francesc

2008-07-30

In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1-2 degrees C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1:1 (males:females) up to 3:1 in both freshwater and marine species. We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

Temperature can interact with landscape factors to affect songbird productivity

Treesearch

W. Andrew Cox; Frank R. III Thompson; Jennifer L. Reidy; John Faaborg

2013-01-01

Increased temperatures and more extreme weather patterns associated with global climate change can interact with other factors that regulate animal populations, but many climate change studies do not incorporate other threats to wildlife in their analyses. We used 20 years of nest-monitoring data from study sites across a gradient of habitat fragmentation in Missouri,...

Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

2017-12-01

South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

Changing climates, changing forests: A western North American perspective

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Mary L. Reid; Barbara J. Bentz; Sanna Sevanto; David L. Spittlehouse; T. Wang

2013-01-01

The Earth’s mean surface air temperature has warmed by ~1C over the last 100 years and is projected to increase at a faster rate in the future, accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events. In western North America, projected increases in mean annual temperatures range from ~1−3.5C by the 2050s,...

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, B. L.; Chang, J.; Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; DAntoni, Hector (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Elevation-dependent temperature trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: changes over a 56- and 20-year record.

PubMed

McGuire, Chris R; Nufio, César R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

2012-01-01

Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953-2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989-2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change.

Elevation-Dependent Temperature Trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: Changes over a 56- and 20-Year Record

PubMed Central

McGuire, Chris R.; Nufio, César R.; Bowers, M. Deane; Guralnick, Robert P.

2012-01-01

Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953–2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989–2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change. PMID:22970205

A data centred method to estimate and map changes in the full distribution of daily surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Characterizing how our climate is changing includes local information which can inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily surface temperature. Here we focus on these local changes and on a model independent method to transform daily observations into patterns of local climate change. Our method [1] is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of the distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. For temperature, changes in the distribution itself can yield robust results [2]. We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations [3]. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data [4] timeseries of local daily surface temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. [1] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, On estimating long term local climate trends, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 (2013) [2] Stainforth, D. A. S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, ERL 8, 034031 (2013) [3] Chapman, S. C., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL 10, 094018 (2015) [4] Haylock M. R. et al ., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, (2008)

Analyzing the effects of urban expansion on land surface temperature patterns by landscape metrics: a case study of Isfahan city, Iran.

PubMed

Madanian, Maliheh; Soffianian, Ali Reza; Koupai, Saeid Soltani; Pourmanafi, Saeid; Momeni, Mehdi

2018-03-03

Urban expansion can cause extensive changes in land use and land cover (LULC), leading to changes in temperature conditions. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key parameters that should be considered in the study of urban temperature conditions. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the effects of changes in LULC due to the expansion of the city of Isfahan on LST using landscape metrics. To this aim, two Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, which had been acquired, respectively, on August 2, 1985, and July 4, 2015, were used. The support vector machine method was then used to classify the images. The results showed that Isfahan city had been encountered with an increase of impervious surfaces; in fact, this class covered 15% of the total area in 1985, while this value had been increased to 30% in 2015. Then LST zoning maps were created, indicating that the bare land and impervious surfaces categories were dominant in high temperature zones, while in the zones where water was present or NDVI was high, LST was low. Then, the landscape metrics in each of the LST zones were analyzed in relation to the LULC changes, showing that LULC changes due to urban expansion changed such landscape properties as the percentage of landscape, patch density, large patch index, and aggregation index. This information could be beneficial for urban planners to monitor and manage changes in the LULC patterns.

Constraining Holocene hydrological changes in the Carpathian-Balkan region using speleothem δ18O and pollen-based temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drăguşin, V.; Staubwasser, M.; Hoffmann, D. L.; Ersek, V.; Onac, B. P.; Veres, D.

2014-07-01

Here we present a speleothem isotope record (POM2) from Ascunsă Cave (Romania) that provides new data on past climate changes in the Carpathian-Balkan region from 8.2 ka until the present. This paper describes an approach to constrain the effect of temperature changes on calcite δ18O values in stalagmite POM2 over the course of the middle Holocene (6-4 ka), and across the 8.2 and 3.2 ka rapid climate change events. Independent pollen temperature reconstructions are used to this purpose. The approach combines the temperature-dependent isotope fractionation of rain water during condensation and fractionation resulting from calcite precipitation at the given cave temperature. The only prior assumptions are that pollen-derived average annual temperature reflects average cave temperature, and that pollen-derived coldest and warmest month temperatures reflect the range of condensation temperatures of rain above the cave site. This approach constrains a range of values between which speleothem δ18O changes should be found if controlled only by surface temperature variations at the cave site. Deviations of the change in δ18Ocspel values from the calculated temperature-constrained range of change are interpreted towards large-scale variability of climate-hydrology. Following this approach, we show that an additional ∼0.6‰ enrichment of δ18Oc in the POM2 stalagmite was caused by changing hydrological patterns in SW Romania across the middle Holocene, most likely comprising local evaporation from the soil and an increase in Mediterranean moisture δ18O. Further, by extending the calculations to other speleothem records from around the entire Mediterranean basin, it appears that all eastern Mediterranean speleothems recorded a similar isotopic enrichment due to changing hydrology, whereas all changes recorded in speleothems from the western Mediterranean are fully explained by temperature variation alone. This highlights a different hydrological evolution between the two sides of the Mediterranean. Our results also demonstrate that during the 8.2 ka event, POM2 stable isotope data essentially fit the temperature-constrained isotopic variability. In the case of the 3.2 ka event, an additional climate-related hydrological factor is more evident. This implies a different rainfall pattern in the Southern Carpathian region during this event at the end of the Bronze Age.

How do molecular marker patterns of BC change at increasing age of chars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M. P. W.; Hilf, M.; Schmidt, M. W. I.

2009-04-01

Black carbon (BC) is considered to be a relatively stable form of organic carbon. However, previous results have shown that the physical and chemical properties of BC can vary considerably with formation temperature. Thus, to understand the long-term carbon sink potential of BC there is increasing interest to gain more information about i) the conditions under which BC was formed, and ii) the resulting degradability of BC under natural conditions. In a first step, we synthesised chars from two different sources of biomass (chestnut wood, rice straw) under well-defined conditions as model substances to analyse the changes in their molecular structure at increasing formation temperature. Results are presented obtained from a set of laboratory produced char samples pyrolysed at increasing temperatures with a high resolution between 200 and 1000 °C. The chars were characterized by a molecular marker method for pyrogenic carbon quantification, which additionally provides information about the degree of condensation of chars. At temperatures between 275 and 500°C, which typically are observed during wildfires and thus are relevant for natural char formation, the molecular marker pattern of the chars remains almost constant. In a next step, we analysed changes in the molecular marker patterns of chars from a chronosequence, with BC deposited between 0 and 100 years ago. Based on the data obtained from the laboratory char series, we compare changes in the molecular marker patterns of the chars from the chronosequence over time. These results show if less condensed forms of BC are degraded preferentially and more condensed, aromatic backbone of BC becomes enriched in the soils with time of degradation. Our results provide information about the fate of BC in the environment, which has important implications in the context of carbon sequestration strategies.

Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

2018-05-01

Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change.

PubMed

Woods, H Arthur; Dillon, Michael E; Pincebourde, Sylvain

2015-12-01

We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2016-04-01

The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2018-05-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of - 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.

Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

PubMed

Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

2016-01-01

Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2017-05-03

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0005467

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broccoli, Anthony J.

2014-09-14

The objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key atmospheric mechanisms and physical processes associated with temperature extremes in order to better interpret and constrain uncertainty in climate model simulations of future extreme temperatures. To achieve this objective, we first used climate observations and a reanalysis product to identify the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America during the late twentieth century. We found that temperature extremes were associated with distinctive signatures in near-surface and mid-tropospheric circulation. The orientations and spatial scales of these circulation anomalies vary with latitude, season,more » and proximity to important geographic features such as mountains and coastlines. We next examined the associations between daily and monthly temperature extremes and large-scale, recurrent modes of climate variability, including the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The strength of the associations are strongest with the PNA and NAM and weaker for ENSO, and also depend upon season, time scale, and location. The associations are stronger in winter than summer, stronger for monthly than daily extremes, and stronger in the vicinity of the centers of action of the PNA and NAM patterns. In the final stage of this project, we compared climate model simulations of the circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America with those obtained from observations. Using a variety of metrics and self-organizing maps, we found the multi-model ensemble and the majority of individual models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generally capture the observed patterns well, including their strength and as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this project indicate that current models are capable of simulating the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with daily temperature extremes and they suggest that such models can be used to evaluate the extent to which changes in atmospheric circulation will influence future changes in temperature extremes.« less

The mental and subjective skin: Emotion, empathy, feelings and thermography.

PubMed

Salazar-López, E; Domínguez, E; Juárez Ramos, V; de la Fuente, J; Meins, A; Iborra, O; Gálvez, G; Rodríguez-Artacho, M A; Gómez-Milán, E

2015-07-01

We applied thermography to investigate the cognitive neuropsychology of emotions, using it as a somatic marker of subjective experience during emotional tasks. We obtained results that showed significant correlations between changes in facial temperature and mental set. The main result was the change in the temperature of the nose, which tended to decrease with negative valence stimuli but to increase with positive emotions and arousal patterns. However, temperature change was identified not only in the nose, but also in the forehead, the oro-facial area, the cheeks and in the face taken as a whole. Nevertheless, thermic facial changes, mostly nasal temperature changes, correlated positively with participants' empathy scores and their performance. We found that temperature changes in the face may reveal maps of bodily sensations associated with different emotions and feelings like love. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the potential effects of climate change on high elevation vegetation in the Olympic Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1995-06-01

Subalpine and alpine vegetation may be particularly sensitive to climatic change, such as expected temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns with global warming. The gap replacement model ZELIG was modified and used to examine transient and steady-state changes in altitudinal treeline, tree species distribution, and forest structure and composition along elevation gradients in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, under a range of temperature and precipitation changes. Changes in vegetation pattern were examined for north vs. south aspects, and wet (southwest) vs. dry (northeast) regions of the mountains. The seedling establishment subroutine in ZELIG was improved to specifically model the complexities ofmore » tree invasion in subalpine meadows and include empirical data. A function allowing for stand replacement fire was also added in order to examine the role of altered disturbance regimes on vegetation change. Results indicate that distribution of tree species will change under various climate change scenarios, but future elevation of treeline depends greatly on precipitation levels, disturbance frequency, and aspect.« less

Effects of rapid temperature changes on HK, PK and HSP70 of Litopenaeus vannamei in different seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Biao; Wang, Fang; Dong, Shuanglin; Hou, Chunqiang

2010-09-01

Activities of hexokinase (HK), pyruvate kinase (PK) and levels of HSP70 were measured to evaluate the response of Litopenaeus vannamei to rapid temperature changes under controlled laboratory conditions. Shrimps were subjected to a quick temperature change from 27°C to 17°C for the summer case (Cold temperature treatment), or from 17°C to 27°C for the winter case (Warm temperature treatment). After 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h of exposure time, shrimps were sampled and prepared for further analysis. The results showed that the effect of acute temperature changes on activities of HK was significant. Patterns of variations of the two glycolytic enzymes suggested that enzymes in the glycolysis cycle could adjust their activities to meet the acute temperature change. The HSP70 level increased in both cold and warm temperature treatments, suggesting that the rapid temperature changes activated the process of body’s self-protection. But the difference in expression peak of HSP70 might be related to the different body size and the higher thermal sensitivity to temperature increase than to temperature decrease of L. vannamei.

Response of birds to climatic variability; evidence from the western fringe of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison; Cooney, Tom; Jennings, Eleanor; Buscardo, Erika; Jones, Mike

2009-05-01

Ireland’s geographic location on the western fringe of the European continent, together with its island status and impoverished avifauna, provides a unique opportunity to observe changes in bird migration and distribution patterns in response to changing climatic conditions. Spring temperatures have increased in western Europe over the past 30 years in line with reported global warming. These have been shown, at least in part, to be responsible for changes in the timing of life cycle events (phenology) of plants and animals. In order to investigate the response of bird species in Ireland to changes in temperature, we examined ornithological records of trans-Saharan migrants over the 31-year period 1969-1999. Analysis of the data revealed that two discrete climatic phenomena produced different responses in summer migrant bird species. Firstly, a number of long-distance migrants showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival. This trend was evident in some species and was found to be a response to increasing spring air temperature particularly in the month of March. Secondly, (1) a step change in the pattern of occurrences of non-breeding migrant bird species, and (2) an increase in the ringing data of migrant species were found to correlate with a step change in temperature in 1987-1988. These results indicate that, for migrant bird species, the impact of a sudden change in temperature can be as important as any long-term monotonic trend, and we suggest that the impact of step change events merits further investigation on a wider range of species and across a greater geographical range.

Impacts of water and nutrient availability on loblolly pine function

Treesearch

Maxwell Wightman; Timothy Martin; Eric Jokela; Carlos Gonzalez-Benecke

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns in the southeastern United States are likely to have important effects on southern pine systems. A 2009 summary from the U.S. Global Change Research Program indicated that the southeastern U.S. will experience an increase in average temperature of 2.5 to 5 °C by the 2080s.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability.

PubMed

Andrew, Carrie; Heegaard, Einar; Høiland, Klaus; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice; Kuyper, Thomas W; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard; Kirk, Paul M; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Gange, Alan C; Egli, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Büntgen, Ulf; Boddy, Lynne; Kauserud, Håvard

2018-06-01

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot - Project Research Plan

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change affects the fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle. Evidence is growing that climate change will have significant ramifications for the nation’s freshwater ecosystems, as deviations in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns are more ...

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the temporal dynamic of bat-fruit interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurindo, Rafael de Souza; Gregorin, Renato; Tavares, Davi Castro

2017-08-01

Mutualistic interactions between animals and plants vary over time and space based on the abundance of fruits or animals and seasonality. Little is known about this temporal dynamic and the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the structure of interaction networks. We evaluated changes in the structure of network interactions between bats and fruits in relation to variations in rainfall. Our results suggest that fruit abundance is the main variable responsible for temporal changes in network attributes, such as network size, connectance, and number of interactions. In the same way, temperature positively affected the abundance of fruits and bats. An increase in temperature and alterations in rainfall patterns, due to human induced climate change, can cause changes in phenological patterns and fruit production, with negative consequences to biodiversity maintenance, ecological interactions, and ecosystem functioning.

[Adaptive specific features of energy metabolism in fish ontogenesis].

PubMed

Ozerniuk, N D

2011-01-01

A review of data on the pattern of change of the intensity of oxygen consumption during early ontogenesis of different fish species (rainbow trout, loach, zebrafish, carp, and grass carp) is provided. It has a similar pattern: this index increases in the period of embryonic and larval development and, after passing of larvae to an active feeding, it begins to gradually decline. This dynamics is determined by specific features of an increase in the rate of oxygen uptake and body weight in the course of early stages of fish ontogenesis. For determining optimal temperature conditions of development, a method of total (for a definite stage of development) oxygen uptake was suggested, which makes it possible to determine minimal energy expenditures necessary for the process of a particular stage of embryogenesis to take place. Analysis of temperature dependence of kinetic properties of enzymes with reference to the Michaelis constant (Km) for lactate dehydrogenase demonstrated that minimal Km, corresponding to maximal enzyme-substrate affinity, for embryos of different fish species differs in correspondence with differences in temperature conditions of development of these species in nature. For embryos of one species developing at changing temperature conditions (salmonids), this index changes in accordance with a temperature drift in nature.

Cosmic strings and the microwave sky. I - Anisotropy from moving strings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stebbins, Albert

1988-01-01

A method is developed for calculating the component of the microwave anisotropy around cosmic string loops due to their rapidly changing gravitational fields. The method is only valid for impact parameters from the string much smaller than the horizon size at the time the photon passes the string. The method makes it possible to calculate the temperature pattern around arbitrary string configurations numerically in terms of one-dimensional integrals. This method is applied to temperature jump across a string, confirming and extending previous work. It is also applied to cusps and kinks on strings, and to determining the temperature pattern far from a strong loop. The temperature pattern around a few loop configurations is explicitly calculated. Comparisons with the work of Brandenberger et al. (1986) indicates that they have overestimated the MBR anisotropy from gravitational radiation emitted from loops.

Neuromodulation to the Rescue: Compensation of Temperature-Induced Breakdown of Rhythmic Motor Patterns via Extrinsic Neuromodulatory Input

PubMed Central

Städele, Carola; Heigele, Stefanie; Stein, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Stable rhythmic neural activity depends on the well-coordinated interplay of synaptic and cell-intrinsic conductances. Since all biophysical processes are temperature dependent, this interplay is challenged during temperature fluctuations. How the nervous system remains functional during temperature perturbations remains mostly unknown. We present a hitherto unknown mechanism of how temperature-induced changes in neural networks are compensated by changing their neuromodulatory state: activation of neuromodulatory pathways establishes a dynamic coregulation of synaptic and intrinsic conductances with opposing effects on neuronal activity when temperature changes, hence rescuing neuronal activity. Using the well-studied gastric mill pattern generator of the crab, we show that modest temperature increase can abolish rhythmic activity in isolated neural circuits due to increased leak currents in rhythm-generating neurons. Dynamic clamp-mediated addition of leak currents was sufficient to stop neuronal oscillations at low temperatures, and subtraction of additional leak currents at elevated temperatures was sufficient to rescue the rhythm. Despite the apparent sensitivity of the isolated nervous system to temperature fluctuations, the rhythm could be stabilized by activating extrinsic neuromodulatory inputs from descending projection neurons, a strategy that we indeed found to be implemented in intact animals. In the isolated nervous system, temperature compensation was achieved by stronger extrinsic neuromodulatory input from projection neurons or by augmenting projection neuron influence via bath application of the peptide cotransmitter Cancer borealis tachykinin-related peptide Ia (CabTRP Ia). CabTRP Ia activates the modulator-induced current IMI (a nonlinear voltage-gated inward current) that effectively acted as a negative leak current and counterbalanced the temperature-induced leak to rescue neuronal oscillations. Computational modelling revealed the ability of IMI to reduce detrimental leak-current influences on neuronal networks over a broad conductance range and indicated that leak and IMI are closely coregulated in the biological system to enable stable motor patterns. In conclusion, these results show that temperature compensation does not need to be implemented within the network itself but can be conditionally provided by extrinsic neuromodulatory input that counterbalances temperature-induced modifications of circuit-intrinsic properties. PMID:26417944

Body temperature patterns as a predictor of hospital-acquired sepsis in afebrile adult intensive care unit patients: a case-control study.

PubMed

Drewry, Anne M; Fuller, Brian M; Bailey, Thomas C; Hotchkiss, Richard S

2013-09-12

Early treatment of sepsis improves survival, but early diagnosis of hospital-acquired sepsis, especially in critically ill patients, is challenging. Evidence suggests that subtle changes in body temperature patterns may be an early indicator of sepsis, but data is limited. The aim of this study was to examine whether abnormal body temperature patterns, as identified by visual examination, could predict the subsequent diagnosis of sepsis in afebrile critically ill patients. Retrospective case-control study of 32 septic and 29 non-septic patients in an adult medical and surgical ICU. Temperature curves for the period starting 72 hours and ending 8 hours prior to the clinical suspicion of sepsis (for septic patients) and for the 72-hour period prior to discharge from the ICU (for non-septic patients) were rated as normal or abnormal by seven blinded physicians. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare groups in regard to maximum temperature, minimum temperature, greatest change in temperature in any 24-hour period, and whether the majority of evaluators rated the curve to be abnormal. Baseline characteristics of the groups were similar except the septic group had more trauma patients (31.3% vs. 6.9%, p = .02) and more patients requiring mechanical ventilation (75.0% vs. 41.4%, p = .008). Multivariable logistic regression to control for baseline differences demonstrated that septic patients had significantly larger temperature deviations in any 24-hour period compared to control patients (1.5°C vs. 1.1°C, p = .02). An abnormal temperature pattern was noted by a majority of the evaluators in 22 (68.8%) septic patients and 7 (24.1%) control patients (adjusted OR 4.43, p = .017). This resulted in a sensitivity of 0.69 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.50, 0.83) and specificity of 0.76 (95% CI 0.56, 0.89) of abnormal temperature curves to predict sepsis. The median time from the temperature plot to the first culture was 9.40 hours (IQR [inter-quartile range] 8.00, 18.20) and to the first dose of antibiotics was 16.90 hours (IQR 8.35, 34.20). Abnormal body temperature curves were predictive of the diagnosis of sepsis in afebrile critically ill patients. Analysis of temperature patterns, rather than absolute values, may facilitate decreased time to antimicrobial therapy.

Body temperature patterns as a predictor of hospital-acquired sepsis in afebrile adult intensive care unit patients: a case-control study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Early treatment of sepsis improves survival, but early diagnosis of hospital-acquired sepsis, especially in critically ill patients, is challenging. Evidence suggests that subtle changes in body temperature patterns may be an early indicator of sepsis, but data is limited. The aim of this study was to examine whether abnormal body temperature patterns, as identified by visual examination, could predict the subsequent diagnosis of sepsis in afebrile critically ill patients. Methods Retrospective case-control study of 32 septic and 29 non-septic patients in an adult medical and surgical ICU. Temperature curves for the period starting 72 hours and ending 8 hours prior to the clinical suspicion of sepsis (for septic patients) and for the 72-hour period prior to discharge from the ICU (for non-septic patients) were rated as normal or abnormal by seven blinded physicians. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare groups in regard to maximum temperature, minimum temperature, greatest change in temperature in any 24-hour period, and whether the majority of evaluators rated the curve to be abnormal. Results Baseline characteristics of the groups were similar except the septic group had more trauma patients (31.3% vs. 6.9%, p = .02) and more patients requiring mechanical ventilation (75.0% vs. 41.4%, p = .008). Multivariable logistic regression to control for baseline differences demonstrated that septic patients had significantly larger temperature deviations in any 24-hour period compared to control patients (1.5°C vs. 1.1°C, p = .02). An abnormal temperature pattern was noted by a majority of the evaluators in 22 (68.8%) septic patients and 7 (24.1%) control patients (adjusted OR 4.43, p = .017). This resulted in a sensitivity of 0.69 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.50, 0.83) and specificity of 0.76 (95% CI 0.56, 0.89) of abnormal temperature curves to predict sepsis. The median time from the temperature plot to the first culture was 9.40 hours (IQR [inter-quartile range] 8.00, 18.20) and to the first dose of antibiotics was 16.90 hours (IQR 8.35, 34.20). Conclusions Abnormal body temperature curves were predictive of the diagnosis of sepsis in afebrile critically ill patients. Analysis of temperature patterns, rather than absolute values, may facilitate decreased time to antimicrobial therapy. PMID:24028682

[Usefulness of contact thermography for the evaluation of chemotherapeutic effectiveness in breast cancer].

PubMed

Kurihara, T; Higashi, Y; Suemasu, K; Kanoh, T; Tabei, T; Inoue, K

1993-05-01

We examined temperature differences between a cancerous breast and its counterpart normal one by contact thermography before and after preoperative chemotherapy, and evaluated the relationship between the changes in the thermograms and response to chemotherapy in six patients with breast cancer. We used the following definitions: 1) delta Tmean: temperature differences between a mean temperature of a cancerous breast and that of the contralateral healthy breast; 2) delta Tmax: temperature differences between a cancer-related hyperthermic area in a breast and the mirror area of contralateral breast; 3) and the thermal patterns in thermogram were estimated by the criteria of Tada et al. In responders the thermograms after chemotherapy indicated an improvement in the hyperthermic vascular pattern (HVP) or hyperthermic area and a decrease of delta Tmean and delta Tmax. In contrast, little or no changes were observed in the thermograms of non-responders. Degrees of changes in thermograms reflected the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Our study showed that chemotherapeutic effectiveness may be better evaluated by combining contact thermography with the present method measuring tumor sizes than by only the present one.

Highs and lows, ups and downs: Meteorology and mood in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Bullock, Ben; Murray, Greg; Meyer, Denny

2017-01-01

Seasonal variation of manic and depressive symptoms is a controversial topic in bipolar disorder research. Several studies report seasonal patterns of hospital admissions for depression and mania and variation in symptoms that appear to follow a seasonal pattern, whereas others fail to report such patterns. Differences in research methodologies, data analysis strategies, and temporal resolution of data may partly explain the variation in findings between studies. The current study adds a novel perspective to the literature by investigating specific meteorological factors such as atmospheric pressure, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures as more proximal predictors of self-reported daily mood change in people diagnosed with bipolar disorder. The results showed that daily maximum temperature was the only meteorological variable to predict clinically-relevant mood change, with increases in temperature associated with greater odds of a transition into manic mood states. The mediating effects of sleep and activity were also investigated and suggest at least partial influence on the prospective relationship between maximum temperature and mood. Limitations include the small sample size and the fact that the number and valence of social interactions and exposure to natural light were not investigated as potentially important mediators of relationships between meteorological factors and mood. The current data make an important contribution to the literature, serving to clarify the specific meteorological factors that influence mood change in bipolar disorder. From a clinical perspective, greater understanding of seasonal patterns of symptoms in bipolar disorder will help mood episode prophylaxis in vulnerable individuals.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Eduardo; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

PubMed Central

Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation. PMID:28481897

Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States.

PubMed

Portmann, Robert W; Solomon, Susan; Hegerl, Gabriele C

2009-05-05

Changes in climate during the 20th century differ from region to region across the United States. We provide strong evidence that spatial variations in US temperature trends are linked to the hydrologic cycle, and we also present unique information on the seasonal and latitudinal structure of the linkage. We show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between trends in daily temperature and average daily precipitation across regions. This linkage is most pronounced in the southern United States (30-40 degrees N) during the May-June time period and, to a lesser extent, in the northern United States (40-50 degrees N) during the July-August time period. It is strongest in trends in maximum temperatures (T(max)) and 90th percentile exceedance trends (90PET), and less pronounced in the T(max) 10PET and the corresponding T(min) statistics, and it is robust to changes in analysis period. Although previous studies suggest that areas of increased precipitation may have reduced trends in temperature compared with drier regions, a change in sign from positive to negative trends suggests some additional cause. We show that trends in precipitation may account for some, but not likely all, of the cause point to evidence that shows that dynamical patterns (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) cannot account for the observed effects during May-June. We speculate that changing aerosols, perhaps related to vegetation changes, and increased strength of the aerosol direct and indirect effect may play a role in the observed linkages between these indices of temperature change and the hydrologic cycle.

[Plasma temperature of white-eye hexagonal pattern in dielectric barrier discharge].

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Dong, Li-fang; Fu, Hong-yan

2015-01-01

By using the water-electrode discharge experimental setup, the white-eye hexagonal pattern is firstly observed and investigated in the dielectric barrier discharge with the mixture of argon and air whose content can be varied whenever necessary, and the study shows that the white-eye cell is an interleaving of three different hexagonal sub-structures: the spot, the ring, and the halo. The white-eye hexagonal pattern has the excellent discharge stability and sustainability during the experiment. Pictures recorded by ordinary camera with long exposure time in the same argon content condition show that the spot, the ring, and the halo of the white-eye hexagonal pattern have different brightness, which may prove that their plasma states are different. And, it is worth noting that there are obvious differences not only on the brightness but also on the color of the white-eye cell in conditions of different argon content, which shows that its plasma state also changed with the variation of the argon content. The white-eye hexagonal pattern is observed at a lower applied voltage so that the temperature of the water electrodes almost keeps unchanged during the whole experiment, which is advantageous for the long term stable measurement. The plasma state will not be affected by the temperature of the electrodes during the continuous discharge. Based on the above phenomena, plasma temperatures of the spot, the ring, and the halo in white-eye hexagonal pattern including molecule vibrational temperature and variations of electron density at different argon content are investigated by means of optical emission spectroscopy (OES). The emission spectra of the N2 second positive band(C3Πu-->B3Πg)are measured, and the molecule vibrational temperature of the spot, the ring, and the halo of the white-eye hexagonal pattern are calculated by the emission intensities. Furthermore, emission spectra of Ar I (2P2-->1S5)is collected and the changes of its width with different argon content are used to estimate the variations of electron density of the spot, the ring, and the halo of the white-eye hexagonal pattern. In the same argon content condition, the molecule vibrational temperatures of halo, ring, and spot in the white-eye hexagonal pattern are in descending order, while the electron densities of halo, ring, and spot are in ascending order. With argon content increasing from 70% to 90%, both the molecule vibrational temperature and the electron density of the spot increase, while both of them of the halo decrease. And the molecule vibrational temperature of the ring keeps constant, while its electron density decreases. The experimental results indicate that the plasma state of the spot, the halo and the ring in a white-eye cell of the white-eye hexagonal pattern is different. These results are of great importance to the investigation of the multilayer structure of the patterns in dielectric barrier discharge and applications in industry.

Neighborhood Landscape Spatial Patterns and Land Surface Temperature: An Empirical Study on Single-Family Residential Areas in Austin, Texas.

PubMed

Kim, Jun-Hyun; Gu, Donghwan; Sohn, Wonmin; Kil, Sung-Ho; Kim, Hwanyong; Lee, Dong-Kun

2016-09-02

Rapid urbanization has accelerated land use and land cover changes, and generated the urban heat island effect (UHI). Previous studies have reported positive effects of neighborhood landscapes on mitigating urban surface temperatures. However, the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on enhancing cooling effects has not yet been fully investigated. The main objective of this study was to assess the relationships between neighborhood landscape spatial patterns and land surface temperatures (LST) by using multi-regression models considering spatial autocorrelation issues. To measure the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on LST, this study analyzed neighborhood environments of 15,862 single-family houses in Austin, Texas, USA. Using aerial photos, geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing, FRAGSTATS was employed to calculate values of several landscape indices used to measure neighborhood landscape spatial patterns. After controlling for the spatial autocorrelation effect, results showed that larger and better-connected landscape spatial patterns were positively correlated with lower LST values in neighborhoods, while more fragmented and isolated neighborhood landscape patterns were negatively related to the reduction of LST.

Neighborhood Landscape Spatial Patterns and Land Surface Temperature: An Empirical Study on Single-Family Residential Areas in Austin, Texas

PubMed Central

Kim, Jun-Hyun; Gu, Donghwan; Sohn, Wonmin; Kil, Sung-Ho; Kim, Hwanyong; Lee, Dong-Kun

2016-01-01

Rapid urbanization has accelerated land use and land cover changes, and generated the urban heat island effect (UHI). Previous studies have reported positive effects of neighborhood landscapes on mitigating urban surface temperatures. However, the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on enhancing cooling effects has not yet been fully investigated. The main objective of this study was to assess the relationships between neighborhood landscape spatial patterns and land surface temperatures (LST) by using multi-regression models considering spatial autocorrelation issues. To measure the influence of neighborhood landscape spatial patterns on LST, this study analyzed neighborhood environments of 15,862 single-family houses in Austin, Texas, USA. Using aerial photos, geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing, FRAGSTATS was employed to calculate values of several landscape indices used to measure neighborhood landscape spatial patterns. After controlling for the spatial autocorrelation effect, results showed that larger and better-connected landscape spatial patterns were positively correlated with lower LST values in neighborhoods, while more fragmented and isolated neighborhood landscape patterns were negatively related to the reduction of LST. PMID:27598186

Effects of aerial hypoxia and temperature on pulmonary breathing pattern and gas exchange in the South American lungfish, Lepidosiren paradoxa.

PubMed

da Silva, Glauber S F; Ventura, Daniela A D N; Zena, Lucas A; Giusti, Humberto; Glass, Mogens L; Klein, Wilfried

2017-05-01

The South American lungfish Lepidosiren paradoxa is an obligatory air-breathing fish possessing well-developed bilateral lungs, and undergoing seasonal changes in its habitat, including temperature changes. In the present study we aimed to evaluate gas exchange and pulmonary breathing pattern in L. paradoxa at different temperatures (25 and 30°C) and different inspired O 2 levels (21, 12, 10, and 7%). Normoxic breathing pattern consisted of isolated ventilatory cycles composed of an expiration followed by 2.4±0.2 buccal inspirations. Both expiratory and inspiratory tidal volumes reached a maximum of about 35mlkg -1 , indicating that L. paradoxa is able to exchange nearly all of its lung air in a single ventilatory cycle. At both temperatures, hypoxia caused a significant increase in pulmonary ventilation (V̇ E ), mainly due to an increase in respiratory frequency. Durations of the ventilatory cycle and expiratory and inspiratory tidal volumes were not significantly affected by hypoxia. Expiratory time (but not inspiratory) was significantly shorter at 30°C and at all O 2 levels. While a small change in oxygen consumption (V̇O 2 ) could be noticed, the carbon dioxide release (V̇CO 2 , P=0.0003) and air convection requirement (V̇ E /V̇O 2 , P=0.0001) were significantly affected by hypoxia (7% O 2 ) at both temperatures, when compared to normoxia, and pulmonary diffusion capacity increased about four-fold due to hypoxic exposure. These data highlight important features of the respiratory system of L. paradoxa, capable of matching O 2 demand and supply under different environmental change, as well as help to understand the evolution of air breathing in lungfish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Physiologic reactions during five weeks of continuous residence in an artificial humid and hot climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laaser, U.

1979-01-01

During 5 weeks in a climatic room, total sweat during work almost doubled. Initial hour differences increasingly equalized. There was a displacement of sweat secretion from trunk to extremities till the end of week 3, occurring earlier and more clearly for the arm than for the leg. Work temperatures dropped rapidly and evenly to a constant level by day 11. Circulation behavior matched that of temperature. Pulse rate during work dropped like rectal temperature and pulse rate during rest was phasically like the pattern of corresponding temperatures. Except for the first days urine output was adequate and even, Na decreasing in the urine until week 3, then returning to initial values. Na and K in sweat declined but with opposite patterns for hours 1-4. Total salt elimination decreased. The conclusive phenomena of redistribution occurred within the first 3 weeks. A few functions changed later also. Relatively trivial changes in an otherwise uniform reaction pattern indicated that after 3 or even 5 weeks of acclimatization the process is not over or at least not completely so. The tempo of the process appears to be a function of the degree of loading.

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Ruedy, R.; Glascoe, J.; Sato, M.

1999-01-01

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change is higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 is too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino, suggesting that global temperature may have moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. The warming in the United States over the past 50 years is smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there is a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism is involved in this regional cooling.

The effect of climate change on skin disease in North America.

PubMed

Kaffenberger, Benjamin H; Shetlar, David; Norton, Scott A; Rosenbach, Misha

2017-01-01

Global temperatures continue to rise, reaching new records almost every year this decade. Although the causes are debated, climate change is a reality. Consequences of climate change include melting of the arctic ice cap, rising of sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased severe weather events. This article updates dermatologists about the effects of climate change on the epidemiology and geographic ranges of selected skin diseases in North America. Although globalization, travel, and trade are also important to changing disease and vector patterns, climate change creates favorable habitats and expanded access to immunologically naïve hosts. Endemic North American illnesses such as Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, and dimorphic fungal infections have recently expanded the geographic areas of risk. As temperatures increase, epidemic viral diseases such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease may develop transmission seasons that are longer and more intense. Chikungunya and dengue are now reported within the southern United States, with Zika on the horizon. Cutaneous injuries from aquatic and marine organisms that have expanding habitats and longer durations of peak activity include jellyfish envenomation, cercarial dermatitis, and seabather eruption, among others. Skin cancer rates may also be affected indirectly by changes in temperature and associated behaviors. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Directional transport of droplets on wettability patterns at high temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shuai; Yin, Shaohui; Chen, Fengjun; Luo, Hu; Tang, Qingchun; Song, Jinlong

2018-01-01

Directional transport of liquid has attracted increasing interest owing to its potential of application in lab-on-a-chip, microfluidic devices and thermal management technologies. Although numerous strategies have been developed to achieve directional transport of liquid at low temperature, controlling the directional transport of liquid at high temperature remains to be a challenging issue. In this work, we reported a novel strategy in which different parts of droplet contacted with surface with different wettability patterns, resulting in a discrepant evaporative vapor film to achieve the directional transport of liquid. The experimental results showed that the state of the liquid on wettability patterned surface gradually changed from contact boiling to Leidenfrost state with the increase of substrate temperature Ts, and liquid on superhydrophilic surface was in composite state of contact boiling and Leidenfrost when Ts was higher than 200 °C. Inspired by the different evaporation states of droplet on the wettability boundary, controlling preferential motion of droplets was observed at high temperature. By designing a surface with wettability pattern on which superhydrophobic region and superhydrophilic region are alternately arranged, a controlled directional transport of droplet can be achieved at high temperature.

Rethinking the longitudinal stream temperature paradigm: region-wide comparison of thermal infrared imagery reveals unexpected complexity of river temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fullerton, Aimee H.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Faux, Russell N.; Steel, E. Ashley; Beechie, Timothy J.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Leibowitz, Scott J.

2015-01-01

Prevailing theory suggests that stream temperature warms asymptotically in a downstream direction, beginning at the temperature of the source in the headwaters and leveling off downstream as it converges to match meteorological conditions. However, there have been few empirical examples of longitudinal patterns of temperature in large rivers due to a paucity of data. We constructed longitudinal thermal profiles (temperature versus distance) for 53 rivers in the Pacific Northwest (USA) using an extensive dataset of remotely sensed summertime river temperatures and classified each profile into one of five patterns of downstream warming: asymptotic (increasing then flattening), linear (increasing steadily), uniform (not changing), parabolic (increasing then decreasing), or complex (not fitting other classes). We evaluated (1) how frequently profiles warmed asymptotically downstream as expected, and (2) whether relationships between river temperature and common hydroclimatic variables differed by profile class. We found considerable diversity in profile shape, with 47% of rivers warming asymptotically, and 53% having alternative profile shapes. Water temperature did not warm substantially over the course of the river for coastal parabolic and uniform profiles, and for some linear and complex profiles. Profile classes showed no clear geographical trends. The degree of correlation between river temperature and hydroclimatic variables differed among profile classes, but there was overlap among classes. Water temperature in rivers with asymptotic or parabolic profiles was positively correlated with August air temperature, tributary temperature and velocity, and negatively correlated with elevation, August precipitation, gradient, and distance upstream. Conversely, associations were less apparent in rivers with linear, uniform, or complex profiles. Factors contributing to the unique shape of parabolic profiles differed for coastal and inland rivers, where downstream cooling was influenced locally by climate or cool water inputs, respectively. Potential drivers of shape for complex profiles were specific to each river. These thermal patterns indicate diverse thermal habitats that may promote resilience of aquatic biota to climate change. Without this spatial context, climate change models may incorrectly estimate loss of thermally suitable habitat.

The implications of climate change on pavement performance and design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-25

Pavements are designed based on historic climatic patterns, reflecting local climate and : incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. : Given anticipated climate changes and the inherent uncertainty a...

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

PubMed

Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2014-10-01

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biocompatible patterning of proteins on wettability gradient surface by thermo-transfer printing.

PubMed

Kim, Sungho; Ryu, Yong-Sang; Suh, Jeng-Hun; Keum, Chang-Min; Sohn, Youngjoo; Lee, Sin-Doo

2014-08-01

We develop a simple and biocompatible method of patterning proteins on a wettability gradient surface by thermo-transfer printing. The wettability gradient is produced on a poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS)-modified glass substrate through the temperature gradient during thermo-transfer printing. The water contact angle on the PDMS-modified surface is found to gradually increase along the direction of the temperature gradient from a low to a high temperature region. Based on the wettability gradient, the gradual change in the adsorption and immobilization of proteins (cholera toxin B subunit) is achieved in a microfluidic cell with the PDMS-modified surface.

Evaluating the potential for justice in urban climate change adaptation in the U.S.: The role of institutions

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change requires that cities adapt to new conditions such as changing precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and frequency of natural disasters. Adapting cities to climate change will have consequences for urban populations as it requires a reconfiguration of...

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades.

PubMed

Bjorkman, Anne D; Elmendorf, Sarah C; Beamish, Alison L; Vellend, Mark; Henry, Gregory H R

2015-12-01

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long-term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21-year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05-0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species - especially for early-flowering species - while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later-flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species' phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Refugia Research Coalition: A regional-scale approach for connecting refugia science to natural and cultural resource management

EPA Science Inventory

Background / question / methods Warmer air and water temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered fire regimes associated with climate change threaten many important natural and cultural resources. Climate change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contempora...

Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Mears, Carl A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Caldwell, Peter; Arblaster, Julie M.; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Lanzante, John; Perlwitz, Judith; Solomon, Susan; Stott, Peter A.; Taylor, Karl E.; Terray, Laurent; Thorne, Peter W.; Wehner, Michael F.; Wentz, Frank J.; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Wilcox, Laura J.; Zou, Cheng-Zhi

2013-01-01

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing. PMID:23197824

Investment casting using multi-jet modelling patterns: the thermogravimetric analysis of visijet® SR200 UV curable acrylate plastic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafsa, M. N.; Ibrahim, M.; Sharif, S.

2013-12-01

Rapid Prototyping (RP) technology is actively studied to be implemented in Investment Casting (IC) process. Nowadays RP techniques are studied for their feasibility as IC master patterns, in terms of pattern collapsibility and drainage during burnout. The purpose of the study is to determine the characteristic of Visijet® SR200 acrylate material during burnout process. Traditional IC patterns made from wax have properties that limit their application in precision casting, especially for parts with thin geometries that readily break or deform when handled or dipped in the refractory slurry. Furthermore, it is not economical when producing a small number of parts. Non wax patterns fabricated for IC process, revealed ceramic shell cracking due to excessive thermal expansions, incomplete collapsibility of pattern during burnout, residual ash and poor surface finish. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was used to measured the weight loss of acrylate material as the temperature was increased. TGA measured the change of material's mass as it is heated. It represents the decomposition temperature after being subjected to varying temperatures, as well as the amount of residual ash. In this experiment, the temperature range was from 20°C to 700°C with 5°C increment. Experiment results show the values of material's optimum reaction temperature and decomposing temperature of Visijet® SR200 acrylate. The percentages of remaining materials were also monitored throughout the process to obtain the amount of residual ash. All of the temperature values obtained is a resemblance for the actual burnout process and can be used as references.

Functional significance and control of release of pulmonary surfactant in the lizard lung.

PubMed

Wood, P G; Daniels, C B; Orgeig, S

1995-10-01

The amount of pulmonary surfactant in the lungs of the bearded dragon (Pogona vitticeps) increases with increasing body temperature. This increase coincides with a decrease in lung compliance. The relationship between surfactant and lung compliance and the principal stimuli for surfactant release and composition (temperature, ventilatory pattern, and autonomic neurotransmitters) were investigated. We chose to investigate ventilatory pattern (which causes mechanical deformation of the type II cells) and adrenergic agents, because they are the major stimuli for surfactant release in mammals. To examine the effects of body temperature and ventilatory pattern, isolated lungs were ventilated at either 18 or 37 degrees C at different ventilatory regimens. An isolated perfused lung preparation at 27 degrees C was used to analyze the effects of autonomic neurotransmitters. Ventilatory pattern did not affect surfactant release, composition, or lung compliance at either 18 or 37 degrees C. An increase in temperature increased phospholipid reuptake and disproportionately increased cholesterol degradation/uptake. Epinephrine and acetylcholine stimulated phospholipid but not cholesterol release. Removal of surfactant caused a decrease in compliance, regardless of the experimental temperature. Temperature appears to be the principal determinant of lung compliance in the bearded dragon, acting directly to increase the tone of the smooth muscle. Increasing the ambient temperature may result in greater surfactant turnover by increasing cholesterol reuptake/degradation directly and by increasing circulating epinephrine, thereby indirectly increasing phospholipid secretion. We suggest that changing ventilatory pattern may be inadequate as a mechanism for maintaining surfactant homeostasis, given the discontinuous, highly variable reptilian breathing pattern.

Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production

Treesearch

Nathan J. Mantua

2009-01-01

For much of the 20th century a clear north-south inverse production pattern for Pacific salmon had a time dynamic that closely followed that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the dominant pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Total Alaska salmon production was high during warm regimes of the PDO, and total Alaska salmon...

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Spatial and temporal stability of temperature in the first-level basins of China during 1951-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuting; Li, Peng; Xu, Guoce; Li, Zhanbin; Cheng, Shengdong; Wang, Bin; Zhao, Binhua

2018-05-01

In recent years, global warming has attracted great attention around the world. Temperature change is not only involved in global climate change but also closely linked to economic development, the ecological environment, and agricultural production. In this study, based on temperature data recorded by 756 meteorological stations in China during 1951-2013, the spatial and temporal stability characteristics of annual temperature in China and its first-level basins were investigated using the rank correlation coefficient method, the relative difference method, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, and wavelet transforms. The results showed that during 1951-2013, the spatial variation of annual temperature belonged to moderate variability in the national level. Among the first-level basins, the largest variation coefficient was 114% in the Songhuajiang basin and the smallest variation coefficient was 10% in the Huaihe basin. During 1951-2013, the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature presented extremely strong spatial and temporal stability characteristics in the national level. The variation range of Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.97-0.99, and the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature showed an increasing trend. In the national level, the Liaohe basin, the rivers in the southwestern region, the Haihe basin, the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, the Huaihe basin, the rivers in the southeastern region, and the Pearl River basin all had representative meteorological stations for annual temperature. In the Songhuajiang basin and the rivers in the northwestern region, there was no representative meteorological station. R/S analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Morlet wavelet analysis of annual temperature showed that the best representative meteorological station could reflect the variation trend and the main periodic changes of annual temperature in the region. Therefore, strong temporal stability characteristics exist for annual temperature in China and its first-level basins. It was therefore feasible to estimate the annual average temperature by the annual temperature recorded by the representative meteorological station in the region. Moreover, it was of great significance to assess average temperature changes quickly and forecast future change tendencies in the region.

Paleoclimate and paleoelevation in the western US Cordillera, 80 Ma to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snell, K. E.; Thompson, J. M.; Foreman, B. Z.; Wernicke, B. P.; Chamberlain, C. P.; Eiler, J. M.; Koch, P. L.

2011-12-01

Disentangling local to regional paleoclimatic signals from paleoelevation changes in the terrestrial sedimentary record is challenging, and can be done with confidence only by compiling spatially and temporally distributed datasets (preferably drawing on diverse proxies). Spatial coverage is particularly important for paleoelevation reconstruction because climate at low elevation sites must be known to identify higher paleoelevation sites and to quantify their altitude. The abundance of previous paleoclimatic and paleoelevation studies from the western United States can provide some of the necessary temporal and spatial framework for discriminating signals of climate change from elevation changes. Here, we present a compilation of previously published and new paleotemperature data from the western United States from the Late Cretaceous - Present derived from leaf physiognomy MAT estimates and carbonate clumped-isotope temperature estimates. After coarsely binning the data into high paleoelevation (>2 km) and lower paleoelevation (<2 km) sites (according to original interpretations made by the authors of previous studies), we compare the general temporal patterns of temperature change from western North America with those implied by the marine stable isotope record. Within this framework, we begin to evaluate sites of uncertain paleoelevation that cannot be compared with contemporaneous, adjacent low elevation sites. In this compilation, both low and high elevation land temperatures are warmer than today during the Late Cretaceous, reach an apex during the early-middle Eocene and then cool to the Present (sharply from the late Miocene to Pleistocene). The observed pattern matches reasonably well with the coarse temporal pattern of climate change based on the marine oxygen isotope record. Paleobotanical data reflect mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas the clumped isotope data from paleosol and lacustrine carbonates appear to be biased toward summer temperatures. Throughout the Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic, both MAT and summer paleotemperature estimates are higher than modern MAT and summer temperature, but the relatively consistent difference between these records implies a seasonal range in temperature that was similar to modern. Summer temperatures from low paleoelevation sites during the Late Cretaceous to the Early Eocene are relatively warm (30 - 40 degrees C), though these values may include a few degrees of radiant solar heating of the surface. Interestingly, Early Eocene-aged carbonate samples from southwest Montana are cooler on average than other carbonate samples of roughly the same age, but are similar in temperature to samples thought to be at high elevation during the Late Cretaceous. Thus, these samples may reflect high elevation summer temperatures, rather than low elevation temperatures, demonstrating the utility of this combined spatial and temporal approach to evaluating terrestrial paleoenvironmental records.

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China.

PubMed

Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

2014-05-01

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species' phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39-43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71-85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was -3.93 to 3.30 days °C(-1) and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C⁻¹, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaomin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Guan, Zhaoyong; Sun, Bo; Yang, Xin; Liu, Chengyan

2015-03-10

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco;

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olesen, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Boberg, F.

2016-12-01

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5Climate change affects the Greenlandic society both advantageously and disadvantageously. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may result in changes in a number of derived society related climate indices, such as the length of growing season or the number of annual dry days or a combination of the two - indices of substantial importance to society in a climate adaptation context.Detailed climate indices require high resolution downscaling. We have carried out a very high resolution (5 km) simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced by the global model EC-Earth. Evaluation of RCM output is usually done with an ensemble of downscaled output with multiple RCM's and GCM's. Here we have introduced and tested a new technique; a translation of the robustness of an ensemble of GCM models from CMIP5 into the specific index from the HIRHAM5 downscaling through a correlation between absolute temperatures and its corresponding index values from the HIRHAM5 output.The procedure is basically conducted in two steps: First, the correlation between temperature and a given index for the HIRHAM5 simulation by a best fit to a second order polynomial is identified. Second, the standard deviation from the CMIP5 simulations is introduced to show the corresponding standard deviation of the index from the HIRHAM5 run. The change of specific climate indices due to global warming will then be possible to evaluate elsewhere corresponding to the change in absolute temperature.Results based on selected indices with focus on the future climate in Greenland calculated for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios will be presented.

Genetic diversity in the environmental conditioning of gossypium hirsutum and gossypium barbadense cultivars

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Enzyme adaptations to temperature occur constantly as temperature patterns modulate diurnally and seasonally. These adaptations entail qualitative and/or quantitative metabolic changes that often provide a competitive advantage, impact migration to new environments, and effect the survival of the s...

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

PubMed

Whitfield, P H

2001-01-01

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

Behavioural responses to thermal conditions affect seasonal mass change in a heat-sensitive northern ungulate.

PubMed

van Beest, Floris M; Milner, Jos M

2013-01-01

Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection) to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces) are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer). We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat) at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter) during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in thermal tolerance are likely contributory factors. Climate-related effects on animal behaviour, and subsequently fitness, are expected to intensify as global warming continues.

Behavioural Responses to Thermal Conditions Affect Seasonal Mass Change in a Heat-Sensitive Northern Ungulate

PubMed Central

van Beest, Floris M.; Milner, Jos M.

2013-01-01

Background Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection) to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces) are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. Methodology/Principal Findings Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer). We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat) at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter) during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. Conclusions/Significance This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in thermal tolerance are likely contributory factors. Climate-related effects on animal behaviour, and subsequently fitness, are expected to intensify as global warming continues. PMID:23776584

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2015-02-01

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

2018-06-01

A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to effective proactive management of extreme phenomena. The impacts of the findings on the predictability of the extreme daily mean areal temperature patterns are also commented.

Pan-Arctic patterns of planktonic heterotrophic microbial abundance and processes: Controlling factors and potential impacts of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maranger, Roxane; Vaqué, Dolors; Nguyen, Dan; Hébert, Marie-Pier; Lara, Elena

2015-12-01

The Arctic Ocean is rapidly changing where increasing water temperatures and rapid loss of summer sea-ice will likely influence the structure and functioning of the entire ecosystem. The aim of this study was to synthesize the current state of knowledge on microbial abundances and processes from a regional Pan-Arctic perspective, characterize regulating factors and attempt to predict how patterns may change under a warming scenario. Here we identify some generalized patterns of different microbial variables between the Pacific-fed and the Atlantic-fed sectors of the Arctic Ocean. Bacterial production (BP), abundance and grazing rates by protists (GT) were all higher in the Atlantic-fed region. Bacterial loss by viral lyses (VL) was proportionally more important in the Pacific-fed sector, suggesting a reduced C transfer efficiency within the microbial loop of that region. Using a cross-comparative approach and all available data to build Arrhenius plots, we found a differential response to warming temperatures among various microbial processes. BP and GT responded similarly and more strongly to increases in temperature than VL did, suggesting a shift in the overall influence of viral mortality under a warming scenario. However, together with temperature, resource-related factors also exerted an influence in regulating these rates. We identified large information gaps for more classically studied microbial variable from several Arctic seas. Furthermore, there is limited information on less conventional pathways such as grazing by mixotrophic species, which may be playing a significant role in Arctic microbial trophodynamics. Although generalized patterns could be elucidated, more information is needed to predict and understand how a changing Arctic will alter microbial C pathways and major biogeochemical cycles on regional and seasonal scales.

Characteristics of temperature change in China over the last 2000 years and spatial patterns of dryness/wetness during cold and warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Haolong; Ma, Xiang; Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin

2017-08-01

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50-70-yr, 100-120-yr, and 200-250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3°C and 0.7°C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870-2000, at a rate of 0.56° ± 0.42°C (100 yr)-1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981-1100 and AD 1201-70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°-30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

How Are Changing Solar Ultraviolet Radiation and Climate Affecting Light-induced Chemical Processes in Aquatic Environments?

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in the ozone layer over the past three decades have resulted in increases in solar UV-B radiation (280-315 nm) that reach the surface of aquatic environments. These changes have been accompanied by unprecedented changes in temperature and precipitation patterns around the...

Impacts of Climate Anomalies on the Vegetation Patterns in the Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dildora, Aralova; Toderich, Kristina; Dilshod, Gafurov

2016-08-01

Steadily rising temperature anomalies in last decades are causing changes in vegetation patterns for sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid dryland ecosystems. After desiccation of the Aral Sea, Uzbekistan has been left with the challenge to develop drought and heat stress monitoring system and tools (e.g., to monitor vegetation status and/crop pattern dynamics) with using remote sensing technologies in broad scale. This study examines several climate parameters, NDVI and drought indexes within geostatistical method to predict further vegetation status in arid and semi-arid zones of landscapes. This approaches aimed to extract and utilize certain variable environmental data (temperature and precipitation) for assessment and inter-linkages of vegetation cover dynamics, specifically related to predict degraded and recovered zones or desertification process in the drylands due to scarcity of water resources and high risks of climate anomalies in fragile ecosystem of Uzbekistan.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to Prairie Potholes and Grasslands

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Climate changes in the Prairie Potholes and Grasslands bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperature and changing precipitation patterns. Because the region is relatively dry with a strong seasonal climate, it is sensitive to climatic changes and vulnerable to changes in climatic regime. For example, model simulations show that regional...

Dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan using the PRECIS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xiong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2018-02-01

In this study, dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan are developed through the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. It can resolve detailed features within GCM grids such as topography, clouds, and land use in Saskatchewan. The PRECIS model is employed to carry out ensemble simulations for projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan. Temperature and precipitation variables at 14 weather stations for the baseline period are first extracted from each model run. Ranges of simulated temperature and precipitation variables are then obtained through combination of maximum and minimum values calculated from the five ensemble runs. The performance of PRECIS ensemble simulations can be evaluated through checking if observations of current temperature at each weather station are within the simulated range. Future climate projections are analyzed over three time slices (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) to help understand the plausible changes in temperature and precipitation over Saskatchewan in response to global warming. The evaluation results show that the PRECIS ensemble simulations perform very well in terms of capturing the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation variables. The results of future climate projections over three time slices indicate that there will be an obvious warming trend from the 2030s, to the 2050s, and the 2080s over Saskatchewan. The projected changes of mean temperature over the whole Saskatchewan area is [0, 2] °C in the 2030s at 10th percentile, [2, 5.5] °C in the 2050s at 50th percentile, and [3, 10] °C in the 2090s at 90th percentile. There are no significant changes in the spatial patterns of the projected total precipitation from the 2030s to the end of this century. The minimum change of the projected total precipitation over the whole Province of Saskatchewan is most likely to be -1.3% in the 2030s, and -0.2% in the 2050s, while the minimum value would be -2.1% to the end of this century at 50th percentile.

Relations between fish abundances, summer temperatures, and forest harvest in a northern Minnesota stream system from 1997 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merten, Eric C.; Hemstad, Nathaniel A.; Eggert, L.S.; Johnson, L.B.; Kolka, R.K.; Newman, Raymond M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

Short-term effects of forest harvest on fish habitat have been well documented, including sediment inputs, leaf litter reductions, and stream warming. However, few studies have considered changes in local climate when examining postlogging changes in fish communities. To address this need, we examined fish abundances between 1997 and 2007 in a basin in a northern hardwood forest. Streams in the basin were subjected to experimental riparian forest harvest in fall 1997. We noted a significant decrease for fish index of biotic integrity and abundance of Salvelinus fontinalis and Phoxinus eos over the study period. However, for P. eos and Culaea inconstans, the temporal patterns in abundances were related more to summer air temperatures than to fine sediment or spring precipitation when examined using multiple regressions. Univariate regressions suggested that summer air temperatures influenced temporal patterns in fish communities more than fine sediment or spring precipitation.

Development and characterization of amorphous acrylate networks for use as switchable adhesives inspired from shapememory behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakhera, Nishant

Several types of insects and animals such as spiders and geckos are inherently able to climb along vertical walls and ceilings. This remarkable switchable adhesive behavior has been attributed to the fibrillar structures on their feet, with size ranging from few nanometers to a few micrometers depending on the species. Several studies have attempted to create synthetic micro-patterned surfaces trying to imitate this adhesive behavior seen in nature. The experimental procedures are scattered, with sole purpose of trying to increase adhesion, thereby making direct comparison between studies very difficult. There is a lack of fundamental understanding on adhesion of patterned surfaces. The influence of critical parameters like material modulus, glass transition temperature, viscoelastic effects, temperature and water absorption on adhesion is not fully explored and characterized. These parameters are expected to have a decisive influence on adhesion behavior of the polymer. Previous studies have utilized conventional "off-the-shelf" materials like epoxy, polyurethanes etc. It is however, impossible to change the material modulus, glass transition temperature etc. of these polymer systems without changing the base constituents itself, thereby explaining the gaps in the current research landscape. The purpose of this study was to use acrylate shape-memory polymers (SMPs) for their ability to be tailored to specific mechanical properties by control of polymer chemistry, without changing the base constituents. Polymer networks with tailorable glass transition, material modulus, water absorption etc. were developed and adhesion studies were performed to investigate the influence of temperature, viscoelastic effects, material modulus on the adhesion behavior of flat acrylate polymer surfaces. The knowledge base gained from these studies was utilized to better understand the fundamental mechanisms associated with adhesion behavior of patterned acrylate surfaces. Thermally induced switchable adhesion and water induced switchable adhesion of patterned acrylate surfaces was investigated. The viscoelastic energy dissipation occurring during the detachment phase was shown to dramatically increase adhesion under both thermally induced and water induced conditions. This effect was most pre-dominant at the glass transition temperature of the material. Increase in pre-load force and unloading velocity were also shown to increase the adhesive capability of the patterned acrylate SMPs.

Circadian and circannual rhythms in the metabolism and ventilation of red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans).

PubMed

Reyes, Catalina; Milsom, William K

2010-01-01

Endogenous circadian and circannual rhythms may exist in the metabolism, ventilation, and breathing pattern of turtles that could further prolong dive times during daily and seasonal periods of reduced activity. To test this hypothesis, turtles were held under seasonal or constant environmental conditions over a 1-yr period, and in each season, V(O)(2) and respiratory variables were measured in all animals under both the prevailing seasonal conditions and the constant conditions for 24 h. Endogenous circadian and circannual rhythms in metabolism and ventilation occurred independent of ambient temperature, photoperiod, and activity, although long-term entrainment to daily and seasonal changes in temperature and photoperiod were required for them to be expressed. Metabolism and ventilation were always higher during the photophase, and the day-night difference was greater at any given temperature when the photoperiod was provided. When corrected for temperature, turtles had elevated metabolic and ventilation rates in the fall and spring (corresponding to the reproductive seasons) and suppressed metabolism and ventilation during winter. The strength of the circadian rhythm varied seasonally, with proportionately larger day-night differences in colder seasons. Daily and seasonal cycles in ventilation largely followed metabolism, although daily and seasonal changes did occur in the breathing pattern independent of levels of total ventilation. These endogenous circadian and circannual changes in metabolism, ventilation, and breathing pattern prolonged dive times at night and in winter and may serve to reduce the costs of breathing and transport and risk of predation.

Adrenal-kidney-gonad complex measurements may not predict gonad-specific changes in gene expression patterns during temperature-dependent sex determination in the red-eared slider turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans).

PubMed

Ramsey, Mary; Crews, David

2007-08-01

Many turtles, including the red-eared slider turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans) have temperature-dependent sex determination in which gonadal sex is determined by temperature during the middle third of incubation. The gonad develops as part of a heterogenous tissue complex that comprises the developing adrenal, kidney, and gonad (AKG complex). Owing to the difficulty in excising the gonad from the adjacent tissues, the AKG complex is often used as tissue source in assays examining gene expression in the developing gonad. However, the gonad is a relatively small component of the AKG, and gene expression in the adrenal-kidney (AK) compartment may interfere with the detection of gonad-specific changes in gene expression, particularly during early key phases of gonadal development and sex determination. In this study, we examine transcript levels as measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for five genes important in slider turtle sex determination and differentiation (AR, ERalpha, ERbeta, aromatase, and Sf1) in AKG, AK, and isolated gonad tissues. In all cases, gonad-specific gene expression patterns were attenuated in AKG versus gonad tissue. All five genes were expressed in the AK in addition to the gonad at all stages/temperatures. Inclusion of the AK compartment masked important changes in gonadal gene expression. In addition, AK and gonad expression patterns are not additive, and gonadal gene expression cannot be predicted from intact AKG measurements. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A quantitative index for classification of plantar thermal changes in the diabetic foot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Contreras, D.; Peregrina-Barreto, H.; Rangel-Magdaleno, J.; Gonzalez-Bernal, J. A.; Altamirano-Robles, L.

2017-03-01

One of the main complications caused by diabetes mellitus is the development of diabetic foot, which in turn, can lead to ulcerations. Because ulceration risks are linked to an increase in plantar temperatures, recent approaches analyze thermal changes. These approaches try to identify spatial patterns of temperature that could be characteristic of a diabetic group. However, this is a difficult task since thermal patterns have wide variations resulting on complex classification. Moreover, the measurement of contralateral plantar temperatures is important to determine whether there is an abnormal difference but, this only provides information when thermal changes are asymmetric and in absence of ulceration or amputation. Therefore, in this work is proposed a quantitative index for measuring the thermal change in the plantar region of participants diagnosed diabetes mellitus regards to a reliable reference (control) or regards to the contralateral foot (as usual). Also, a classification of the thermal changes based on a quantitative index is proposed. Such classification demonstrate the wide diversity of spatial distributions in the diabetic foot but also demonstrate that it is possible to identify common characteristics. An automatic process, based on the analysis of plantar angiosomes and image processing, is presented to quantify these thermal changes and to provide valuable information to the medical expert.

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; Josey, S. A.; Beaulieu, C.; Johns, W. E.; Moat, B. I.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Bryden, H. L.; McCarthy, G. D.

2018-02-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared to 2004-2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate models. Concurrent changes in air-sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor in decadal-scale variability of North Atlantic climate.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

PubMed

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose multiple challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of climate change impacts to biota typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal patterns of stream networks; yet patches of cooler water within rivers c...

Firefighter exercise protocols conducted in an environmental chamber: developing a laboratory-based simulated firefighting protocol.

PubMed

Ensari, Ipek; Motl, Robert W; Klaren, Rachel E; Fernhall, Bo; Smith, Denise L; Horn, Gavin P

2017-05-01

A standard exercise protocol that allows comparisons across various ergonomic studies would be of great value for researchers investigating the physical and physiological strains of firefighting and possible interventions for reducing the demands. We compared the pattern of cardiorespiratory changes from 21 firefighters during simulated firefighting activities using a newly developed firefighting activity station (FAS) and treadmill walking both performed within an identical laboratory setting. Data on cardiorespiratory parameters and core temperature were collected continuously using a portable metabolic unit and a wireless ingestible temperature probe. Repeated measures ANOVA indicated distinct patterns of change in cardiorespiratory parameters and heart rate between conditions. The pattern consisted of alternating periods of peaks and nadirs in the FAS that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to live fire activities, whereas the same parameters increased logarithmically in the treadmill condition. Core temperature increased in a similarly for both conditions, although more rapidly in the FAS. Practitioner Summary: The firefighting activity station (FAS) yields a pattern of cardiorespiratory responses qualitatively and quantitatively similar to live fire activities, significantly different than treadmill walking. The FAS can be performed in a laboratory/clinic, providing a potentially standardised protocol for testing interventions to improve health and safety and conducting return to duty decisions.

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Interdecadal Change in the Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the Late 1990s during Boreal Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Zhiping; Guo, Yuanyuan; Wu, Renguang

2017-04-01

The leading mode of boreal spring precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s. The pattern before 1998 features positive precipitation anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) with positive principle component years. The counterpart after 1998 exhibits a westward shift of the positive center to the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Observational evidence shows that this interdecadal change in the leading mode of precipitation variability is closely associated with a distinctive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. The westward shift of the anomalous precipitation center after 1998 is in tandem with a similar shift of maximum warming from the EP to CP. Diagnostic analyses based on a linear equation of the mixed layer temperature anomaly exhibit that an interdecadal enhancement of zonal advection (ZA) feedback process plays a vital role in the shift in the leading mode of both the tropical Pacific SST and the precipitation anomaly during spring. Moreover, the variability of the anomalous zonal current at the upper ocean dominates the ZA feedback change, while the mean zonal SST gradient associated with a La Niña-like pattern of the mean state only accounts for a relatively trivial proportion of the ZA feedback change. It was found that both the relatively rapid decaying of the SST anomalies in the EP and the La Niña-like mean state make it conceivable that the shift of the leading mode of the tropical precipitation anomaly only occurs in spring. In addition, the largest variance of the anomalous zonal current in spring might contribute to the unique interdecadal change in the tropical spring precipitation anomaly pattern.

Holocene Activity of the Quelccaya Ice Cap: A Working Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, T. V.; Smith, C. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Stroup, J. S.

2012-12-01

The patterns and magnitudes of past climate change in the topics are still under discussion. We contribute here by reporting on patterns of glacier length changes of the largest glacier in the tropics, Quelccaya Ice Cap (~13.9°S, 70.9°W, summit at 5645 m). This ice cap has several local domes that may have different patterns of length changes because of differing elevations of the domes (high to the north, lower to the south). Prior work (Mark et al. 2003, Abbott et al., 2004; Thompson et al., 2005; Buffen, et al., 2009), new radiocarbon ages, and stratigraphic and geomorphic relationships are used to determine the general pattern of length changes for the outlets from this ice cap. We exploit geomorphic relationships and present new radiocarbon ages on interpreted stratigraphic sections to determine the pattern of length changes for this ice cap. Ice retreated during late glacial times (Rodbell and Seltzer, 2000; Kelly et al., in press). By 11,400 yr BP it had reached a position ~1.2 km beyond its present (2000 AD) extent. While length during the early Holocene is problematic, present evidence permits, but does not prove, extents of 0.5 to 1.0 km down-valley from the present margin. Between 6400 and 4400 yr BP the ice cap was smaller than present, but it advanced multiple times during the late Holocene. Lengths of up to 1 km beyond present were achieved at 3400 yr BP and ~500 yr BP. Additionally, the ice advanced to 0.8 km beyond its present margin at 1600 yr BP. Because these glaciers were temperate, we take these lengths to represent primarily changes in temperature. This may suggest that lowering insolation values in the northern hemisphere during the Holocene provide a first order control on tropical temperatures. Alternatively, it may be that major reorganization of the topical circulation belts about 5000 yr BP yields two configurations of the QIC and hence Holocene temperatures - one at the present ice margin and and the second about 1 km beyond the present ice margin. In either case, the pulsating glacier lengths indicate a dynamic Holocene climate.

Ectotherm thermal stress and specialization across altitude and latitude.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Miller, Ethan F; Kingsolver, Joel G

2013-10-01

Gradients of air temperature, radiation, and other climatic factors change systematically but differently with altitude and latitude. We explore how these factors combine to produce altitudinal and latitudinal patterns of body temperature, thermal stress, and seasonal overlap that differ markedly from patterns based solely on air temperature. We use biophysical models to estimate body temperature as a function of an organism's phenotype and environmental conditions (air and surface temperatures and radiation). Using grasshoppers as a case study, we compare mean body temperatures and the incidence of thermal extremes along altitudinal gradients both under past and current climates. Organisms at high elevation can experience frequent thermal stress despite generally cooler air temperatures due to high levels of solar radiation. Incidences of thermal stress have increased more rapidly than have increases in mean conditions due to recent climate change. Increases in air temperature have coincided with shifts in cloudiness and solar radiation, which can exacerbate shifts in body temperature. We compare altitudinal thermal gradients and their seasonality between tropical and temperate mountains to ask whether mountain passes pose a greater physiological barrier in the tropics (Janzen's hypothesis). We find that considering body temperature rather than air temperature generally increases the amount of overlap in thermal conditions along gradients in elevation and thus decreases the physiological barrier posed by tropical mountains. Our analysis highlights the limitations of predicting thermal stress based solely on air temperatures, and the importance of considering how phenotypes influence body temperatures.

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Differences in cold hardiness, carbohydrates, dehydrins and related gene expressions under an experimental deacclimation and reacclimation in Prunus persica.

PubMed

Shin, Hyunsuk; Oh, Youngjae; Kim, Daeil

2015-08-01

To boost our understanding of a recent outbreak of freezing injury, we sought to confirm distinctive features between the shoot tissues of the peach (Prunus persica) cultivars Daewol and Kiraranokiwami by mimicking unseasonable changes of temperatures that occur in the early spring through repeated deacclimation and reacclimation treatments. Patterns of cold hardiness declined dramatically during the deacclimation and rose during the reacclimation in both cultivars. Our results indicated that 'Daewol' possessed higher capacity in response to repeated deacclimation and reacclimation treatments than 'Kiraranokiwami'. 'Daewol' showed more sensitive changes in the carbohydrates in response to warm and low temperatures compared with 'Kiraranokiwami'. 'Daewol' indicated almost similar repeated down- and up-patterns in soluble sugar content in response to repeated deacclimation and reacclimation, whereas it indicated repeated up- and down-patterns in starch content. However, 'Kiraranokiwami' showed a progressive increase in the soluble sugar content and a progressive decrease in starch content. Notably, patterns of accumulation of a 60-kDa dehydrin protein encoded by the PpDhn1 gene were confirmed through western blotting and paralleled fluctuations of cold hardiness in both cultivars. Expression of this dehydrin was weak in both cultivars during deacclimation but its band intensity increased during reacclimation. Changes in related genes (β-amylase, PpDhn1, PpDhn2 and PpDhn3) were positively correlated with changes in cold hardiness throughout the experiment. Our results indicate that recent repeated warm periods may cause premature deacclimation in the early spring, and that more cold-tolerant cultivar may be more resilient to freezing injury caused by unstable temperature conditions. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Patterns of total ecosystem carbon storage with changes in soil temperature in boreal black spruce forests

Treesearch

E.S. Kane; J.G. Vogel

2009-01-01

To understand how carbon (C) pools in boreal ecosystems may change with warming, we measured above- and belowground C pools and C increment along a soil temperature gradient across 16 mature upland black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. [B•S.P]) forests in interior Alaska. Total spruce C stocks (stand and root C) increased from 1.3 to 8.5 kg C m

Implications of climatic seasonality on activity patterns and resource use by sympatric peccaries in northern Pantanal.

PubMed

Hofmann, Gabriel Selbach; Coelho, Igor Pfeifer; Bastazini, Vinicius Augusto Galvão; Cordeiro, José Luís Passos; de Oliveira, Luiz Flamarion Barbosa

2016-03-01

We evaluated the effects of climate seasonality from a thermal and water availability perspective on the activity patterns and resource use of Pecari tajacu and Tayassu pecari during wet and dry seasons in the northeastern Brazilian Pantanal. We used camera traps and temperature sensors to record species activity patterns in relation to temperature, established five habitat categories based on flooding intensity and local vegetation characteristics, assessed the activity patterns of each species in dry and wet periods and in artificial water bodies using circular statistical metrics, and calculated niche amplitude and overlap on three axes (temperature, time, and habitat) in both periods. Peccaries shared a strong resemblance in resource use and in their responses to seasonal variations in the tested gradients. The activity patterns of both species exhibited a significant correlation with air temperature on all the evaluated measures, and both species strongly reduced their activity when the air temperature exceeded 35 °C. High temperatures associated with low water availability were most likely responsible for the changes in species activity patterns, which resulted in an increased temporal overlap in habitat use throughout the dry season. However, the peccaries avoided intensively flooded habitats; therefore, the habitat gradient overlap was greater during the wet period. Our results show that an increase in niche overlap on the environmental gradient as a result of climatic seasonality may be partially compensated by a reduction in other niche dimensions. In this case, temporal partitioning appears to be an important, viable mechanism to reduce competition by potentially competing species.

Evaluation of common bean lines for adaptation to high temperatures in Honduras

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As in other regions worldwide, common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) production in Central America and the Caribbean (CA/C) region is threatened by effects of climate change including increasing temperatures and drought due to variable rainfall patterns. One of the main alternatives for increasing ada...

Photosynthesis, growth and maize yields in the context of global change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maize is the third most important grain crop behind wheat and rice. Global mean temperatures are rising primarily due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the earth’s atmosphere. Warmer temperatures over major landmasses are predicted to alter precipitation patterns and to increase the f...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to western mountains and forests

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Observed climate changes in the Western Mountains and Forests bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a shift toward earlier timing of peak runoff. These climatic changes have resulted in widespread mortality in western forests, species range shifts and changes in phenology, productivity, and...

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason; Jones, William R.

2017-01-01

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates.

Activation of AMP-activated protein kinase in response to temperature elevation shows seasonal variation in the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha.

PubMed

Jost, Jennifer A; Keshwani, Sarah S; Abou-Hanna, Jacob J

2015-04-01

Global climate change is affecting ectothermic species, and a variety of studies are needed on thermal tolerances, especially from cellular and physiological perspectives. This study utilized AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), a key regulator of cellular energy levels, to examine the effects of high water temperatures on zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) physiology. During heating, AMPK activity increased as water temperature increased to a point, and maximum AMPK activity was detected at high, but sublethal, water temperatures. This pattern varied with season, suggesting that cellular mechanisms of seasonal thermal acclimatization affect basic metabolic processes during sublethal heat stress. There was a greater seasonal variation in the water temperature at which maximum AMPK activity was measured than in lethal water temperature. Furthermore, baseline AMPK activity varied significantly across seasons, most likely reflecting altered metabolic states during times of growth and reproduction. In addition, when summer-collected mussels were lab-acclimated to winter and spring water temperatures, patterns of heat stress mirrored those of field-collected animals. These data suggest that water temperature is the main driver of the seasonal variation in physiology. This study concluded that AMPK activity, which reflects changes in energy supply and demand during heat stress, can serve as a sensitive and early indicator of temperature stress in mussels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species.

PubMed

Horne, Curtis R; Hirst, Andrew G; Atkinson, David

2017-03-29

Major biological and biogeographical rules link body size variation with latitude or environmental temperature, and these rules are often studied in isolation. Within multivoltine species, seasonal temperature variation can cause substantial changes in adult body size, as subsequent generations experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature-size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air forces aquatic species to exhibit greater plasticity in body size with temperature. Total percentage change in size over the annual cycle appears relatively constant with annual temperature range but varies between environments, such that the overall size reduction in aquatic-developing species (approx. 31%) is almost threefold greater than in terrestrial species (approx. 11%). For the first time, we show that strong correlations exist between seasonal temperature-size gradients, laboratory responses and latitudinal-size clines, suggesting that these patterns share common drivers. © 2017 The Author(s).

Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

PubMed

Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

2017-07-01

For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

Interdecadal change in the Eurasia-Pacific anti-phase relation of atmospheric mass and its possible link with PDO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong

2017-02-01

Based on the known climatic shift that occurred in 1976, we divide the present study period into two epochs: epoch-I, for 1958-1976; and epoch-II, for 1977-2002. Using ERA-40 and the 20th century reanalysis data, we investigate the interdecadal change in the Eurasia-Pacific anti-phase relation (EPAR) pattern of atmospheric mass (AM) during boreal winter before and after 1976. It is found that anomalous AM over lands is highly and negatively correlated with anomalous AM over oceans in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. This correlation does not change much from epoch-I to epoch-II. However, the correlation pattern of surface air pressure anomalies with variations of anomalous AM over lands changes remarkably from epoch-I to epoch-II; the EPAR pattern emerges evidently in the later period, whereas it is not significant in epoch-I. The occurrence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II may be attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may modulate the EPAR pattern in two ways. Firstly, the interdecadal component of the PDO as a background may modulate the intensities of the Aleutian low, East Asian trough, and westerly flow, acting as a waveguide during the warm phase (epoch-II) of the PDO. Secondly, the interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific, in association with the PDO, may affect the interannual variations of AM, which facilitates the existence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II only. With the teleconnection pattern having changed before and after 1976, winter climate anomalies, including rainfall and temperature, are found to be different in many regions in the Northern Hemisphere between epoch-I and epoch-II. All the results of the present work are meaningful for a better understanding of climate anomalies during boreal winter.

Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

2014-12-01

Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

2016-08-01

A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Acclimatization patterns in tropical reptiles: uncoupling temperature and energetics.

PubMed

Berg, Wiebke; Theisinger, Ole; Dausmann, Kathrin H

2017-10-13

The physiological compensation of animals in changing environments through acclimatization has long been considered to be of minor importance in tropical ectotherms due to more stable climatic conditions compared to temperate regions. Contrasting this assumption are reports about a range of metabolic adjustments in tropical species, especially during the last two decades from field acclimatized animals. Metabolic rates are strongly linked to temperature in ectotherms but they also reflect energetic requirements and restrictions. We therefore postulate that the observed variety of acclimatization patterns in tropical reptiles results from an interaction of multiple influences, including food and water availability, rather than from thermal constraints alone. We present new data from two sympatric Malagasy lizards with contrasting acclimatization patterns and, complemented with an extensive literature search, discuss the variety of acclimatization patterns in tropical reptiles with regard to thermal and energetic influences. This broad consideration of constraints allows a rearrangement of apparently controversial patterns into a scheme of decreasing metabolic costs, including two new categories for selective and selective inverse acclimatization, where metabolic shifts are restricted to body temperatures below those preferred during activity.

Atom-Scale Mechanisms for Unstable Growth on Patterned GaAs(001)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadayyon-Eslami, Tabassom; Kan, Hung-Chih; Calhoun, Lynn; Phaneuf, Ray

2007-03-01

Molecular beam epitaxy on patterned GaAs(001) under standard conditions of temperature (˜600 C), rate (˜ 0.3 nm/s) and flux ratio (As2/Ga˜10:1) leads to a transient instability toward perturbation of the flat surface [1]. Lowering the temperature through approximately 540^oC, roughly coincident with the preroughening temperature changes the mode of this instability [2]; however, as we show in this talk, observations of the As2 flux dependence rule out both preroughening and a reconstructive phase transition as driving the growth mode change. Instead, we find evidence that the change in unstable growth mode can be explained by a competition between decreased adatom collection rate on small terraces and a small anisotropic multi-step Ehrlich-Schwoebel barrier. We relate these effects to the up-down symmetry breaking term which commonly appears in continuum equations for growth. [1] H.-C. Kan, S. Shah, T. Tadayyon-Eslami and R.J. Phaneuf, Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 146101 (2004). [2] T. Tadayyon-Eslami, H.-C. Kan, L. C. Calhoun and R. J. Phaneuf, Phys. Rev. Lett., 97, 126101 (2006).

Glass transition in ferroic glass K x (ND4)1-x D2PO4: a complete x-ray diffraction line shape analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjan Choudhury, Rajul; Chitra, R.; Jayakrishnan, V. B.

2016-03-01

Quenching of dynamic disorder in glassy systems is termed as the glass transition. Ferroic glasses belong to the class of paracrystalline materials having crystallographic order in-between that of a perfect crystal and amorphous material, a classic example of ferroic glass is the solid solution of ferroelectric deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate and antiferroelectric deuterated ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. Lowering temperature of this ferroic glass can lead to a glass transition to a quenched disordered state. The subtle atomic rearrangement that takes place at such a glass transition can be revealed by careful examination of the temperature induced changes occurring in the x-ray powder diffraction (XRD) patterns of these materials. Hence we report here results of a complete diffraction line shape analysis of the XRD patterns recorded at different temperatures from deuterated mixed crystals DK x A1-x DP with mixing concentration x ranging as 0 < x < 1. Changes observed in diffraction peak shapes have been explained on the basis of structural rearrangements induced by changing O-D-O hydrogen bond dynamics in these paracrystals.

Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climatic patterns for the Coastal Plain region of Georgia, USA, centered on Tifton, Georgia (31 28 30N, 83 31 54W) were examined for long term patterns in precipitation and air temperature. Climate projections based upon output from seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three future Green Hous...

Using Nitrogen Stable Isotope Tracers to Track Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Salt Marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts on coastal salt marshes are predicted to be complex and multi-faceted. In addition to rising sea level and warmer water temperatures, regional precipitation patterns are also expected to change. At least in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S., more severe s...

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

PubMed

Jansson, Roland

2003-03-22

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Climatic effects of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions and associated feedbacks due to vegetation change in the boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blichner, Sara Marie; Koren Berntsen, Terje; Stordal, Frode

2017-04-01

As our understanding of the earth system improves, it is becoming increasingly clear that vegetation and ecosystems are not only influenced by the atmosphere, but that changes in these also feed back to the atmosphere and induce changes here. One such feedback involves the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation. As BVOCs are oxidized, they become less volatile and contribute to aerosol growth and formation in the atmosphere, and can thus change the radiative balance of the atmosphere through both the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The amount and type of BVOCs emitted by vegetation depends on a myriad of variables; temperature, leaf area index (LAI), species, water availability and various types of stress (e.g. insects attacks). They generally increase with higher temperatures and under stress. These factors beg the question of how emissions will change in the future in response to both temperature increase and changes to vegetation patterns and densities. The boreal region is of particular interest because forest cover in general has been thought to have a warming effect due to trees reducing the albedo, especially when snow covers the ground. We investigate feedbacks through BVOC emissions related to the expected northward expansion of boreal forests in response to global warming with a development version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). BVOC emissions are computed by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature 2.1 (MEGAN2.1) which is incorporated into the Community Land Model v4.5 (CLM4.5). The atmospheric component is CAM5.3-Oslo. We will present preliminary results of effects on clouds and aerosol concentrations resulting from a fixed poleward shift in boreal forests and compare the radiative effects of this to changes in surface energy fluxes. CO2-concentrations and sea surface temperatures are kept fixed in order to isolate the effects of the change in vegetation patterns. Finally, these results are compared to simulations of a future climate (corresponding to 2xCO2-concentrations) both with present-day and shifted vegetation patterns.

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

PubMed

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Ranges of diurnal variation and the pattern of body temperature, blood pressure and heart rate in laboratory beagle dogs.

PubMed

Miyazaki, Hiroyasu; Yoshida, Mutsumi; Samura, Keiji; Matsumoto, Hiroyoshi; Ikemoto, Fumihiko; Tagawa, Masahiro

2002-01-01

Ranges in diurnal variation and the patterns of body temperature (T), blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR) and locomotor activity (LA) in 61 laboratory beagle dogs were analyzed using a telemetry system. Body temperature, BP, HR and LA increased remarkably at feeding time. Locomotor activity increased sporadically during the other periods. Body temperature was maintained at the higher value after feeding but had decreased by 0.2 C by early the next morning. Blood pressure fell to a lower value after feeding but had increased by 2.8% by early the next morning. Heart rate decreased progressively after feeding and was 14.5% lower the next morning. This study determined that in laboratory beagles the ranges of diurnal variation and patterns of T, BP and HR are significantly different from those reported in humans and rodents, and that over 24 hr these physiological changes were associated with their sporadic wake-sleep cycles of the dogs.

Stress Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

SPATE 900 Dynamic Stress Analyzer is an acronym for Stress Pattern Analysis by Thermal Emission. It detects stress-induced temperature changes in a structure and indicates the degree of stress. Ometron, Inc.'s SPATE 9000 consists of a scan unit and a data display. The scan unit contains an infrared channel focused on the test structure to collect thermal radiation, and a visual channel used to set up the scan area and interrogate the stress display. Stress data is produced by detecting minute temperature changes, down to one-thousandth of a degree Centigrade, resulting from the application to the structure of dynamic loading. The electronic data processing system correlates the temperature changes with a reference signal to determine stress level.

Statistical analysis of temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorentzen, Torbjørn

2014-02-01

The paper analyzes sea temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea. The data cover the period 1948-2010. The following questions are addressed: What type of stochastic process characterizes the temperature series? Are there any changes or patterns which indicate climate change? Are there any characteristics in the data which can be linked to the shrinking sea-ice in the Arctic area? Can the series be modeled consistently and applied in forecasting of the future sea temperature? The paper applies the following methods: Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for testing of unit-root and stationarity, ARIMA-models in univariate modeling, cointegration and error-correcting models are applied in estimating short- and long-term dynamics of non-stationary series, Granger-causality tests in analyzing the interaction pattern between the deep and upper layer temperatures, and simultaneous equation systems are applied in forecasting future temperature. The paper shows that temperature at 2000 m Granger-causes temperature at 150 m, and that the 2000 m series can represent an important information carrier of the long-term development of the sea temperature in the geographical area. Descriptive statistics shows that the temperature level has been on a positive trend since the beginning of the 1980s which is also measured in most of the oceans in the North Atlantic. The analysis shows that the temperature series are cointegrated which means they share the same long-term stochastic trend and they do not diverge too far from each other. The measured long-term temperature increase is one of the factors that can explain the shrinking summer sea-ice in the Arctic region. The analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the shrinking sea ice and the sea temperature at Station-M. The paper shows that the temperature forecasts are conditioned on the properties of the stochastic processes, causality pattern between the variables and specification of model, respectively. The estimated models forecast that temperature at 150 m is expected to increase by 0.018 °C per year, while deep water temperature at 2000 m is expected to increase between 0.0022 and 0.0024 °C per year.

Local pharmacological effects of tungstate on the color-pattern determination of butterfly wings: a possible relationship between the eyespot and parafocal element.

PubMed

Dhungel, Bidur; Otaki, Joji M

2009-11-01

Butterfly wing color patterns can be changed by the application of a temperature shock or pharmacological agents such as tungstate, producing a distinctive type of elemental modification called the TS (temperature shock) type. Heterochronic uncoupling between the signaling and reception steps during the color-pattern determination process has been proposed as a mechanism for TS-type changes. As an extension of this hypothesis, both the parafocal element (PFE) and the eyespot in the same wing compartment are considered to be determined by morphogenic signal(s) emitted from the same eyespot focus. However, these models need to be examined with additional experimental data. Furthermore, there is controversy as to whether the action of tungstate on wing color patterns is direct or Indirect. Using a species of nymphalid butterfly (Junonia orithya), we have devised a simple method for the local application of pharmacological agents directly on developing wings of pupae. Local tungstate application resulted in reduced eyespots and circular dislocated PFEs in the eyespot-less compartments only on the treated wing, demonstrating that tungstate directly induces color-pattern changes on wings. We further examined the eyespot-PFE relationship in normal and cold-shocked Individuals, showing that an eyespot can be superimposed on a PFE and vice versa, probably depending on the timing of their fate determination. Taken together, we propose a two-morphogen model for the normal color-pattern determination, in which the morphogenic signals for the eyespot and PFE are different from each other despite their Identical origin. This two-morphogen model is compatible with the heterochronic uncoupling model for TS-type changes.

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2016-11-01

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

Satellite observations of the 1982-1983 El Nino along the U.S. Pacific coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiedler, P. C.

1984-01-01

Satellite infrared temperature images illustrate several effects of the 1982-1983 El Nino: warm sea-surface temperatures with the greatest anomalies near the coast, weakened coastal upwelling, and changes in surface circulation patterns. Phytoplankton pigment images from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner indicate reduced productivity during El Nino, apparently related to the weakened coastal upwelling. The satellite images provide direct evidence of mesosale changes associated with the oceanwide El Nino event.

40 CFR 230.20 - Substrate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... result in changes in water circulation, depth, current pattern, water fluctuation and water temperature... organic and inorganic solid materials and includes water and other liquids or gases that fill the spaces... dredged or fill material can result in varying degrees of change in the complex physical, chemical, and...

40 CFR 230.20 - Substrate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... result in changes in water circulation, depth, current pattern, water fluctuation and water temperature... organic and inorganic solid materials and includes water and other liquids or gases that fill the spaces... dredged or fill material can result in varying degrees of change in the complex physical, chemical, and...

Drought stress suppresses phytoalexin production against Fusarium verticilliodes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change involves rising temperatures and potentially decreased rainfall or changes in rainfall patterns, which could dramatically decrease the yield of food crops. Drought alone can impair plant growth and development, but in nature plants are continuously exposed to both abiotic and b...

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Application of spatially modulated near-infrared structured light to study changes in optical properties of mouse brain tissue during heatstress.

PubMed

Shaul, Oren; Fanrazi-Kahana, Michal; Meitav, Omri; Pinhasi, Gad A; Abookasis, David

2017-11-10

Heat stress (HS) is a medical emergency defined by abnormally elevated body temperature that causes biochemical, physiological, and hematological changes. The goal of the present research was to detect variations in optical properties (absorption, reduced scattering, and refractive index coefficients) of mouse brain tissue during HS by using near-infrared (NIR) spatial light modulation. NIR spatial patterns with different spatial phases were used to differentiate the effects of tissue scattering from those of absorption. Decoupling optical scattering from absorption enabled the quantification of a tissue's chemical constituents (related to light absorption) and structural properties (related to light scattering). Technically, structured light patterns at low and high spatial frequencies of six wavelengths ranging between 690 and 970 nm were projected onto the mouse scalp surface while diffuse reflected light was recorded by a CCD camera positioned perpendicular to the mouse scalp. Concurrently to pattern projection, brain temperature was measured with a thermal camera positioned slightly off angle from the mouse head while core body temperature was monitored by thermocouple probe. Data analysis demonstrated variations from baseline measurements in a battery of intrinsic brain properties following HS.

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

2017-09-01

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

Effect of artificial gravity on thermoregulation, respiratory metabolism and intermediary metabolism of animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oyama, J.

1973-01-01

Metabolic alterations in animals exposed to radial acceleration are reported. Temperatures in acutely stressed animals dropped profoundly in correlation with decreased food consumption. Repeated exposure of the acutely stressed animal caused a decrease in hypothermic response whereas deceleration or reduction of G load did not significantly change body temperatures. Adrenal corticosteroids affected significantly the animal's recovery rate. No changes occured in body temperature patterns of chronically centrifuged animals after full adaptation; their respiratory rate increased very significantly in terms of CO2 output as did their glucose uptake by muscle tissues and their insulin responsiveness or sensitivity.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

The Urban Heat Island Impact in Consideration of Spatial Pattern of Urban Landscape and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Sung, S.; Park, J.

2015-12-01

Preceding study has established a clear relationship between land surface temperature and area of land covers. However, only few studies have specifically examined the effects of spatial patterns of land covers and urban structure. To examine how much the local climate is affected by the spatial pattern in highly urbanized city, we investigated the correlation between land surface temperature and spatial patterns of land covers. In the analysis of correlation, we categorized urban structure to four different land uses: Apartment residential area, low rise residential area, industrial area and central business district. Through this study, we aims to examine the types of residential structure and land cover pattern for reducing urban heat island and sustainable development. Based on land surface temperature, we investigated the phenomenon of urban heat island through using the data of remote sensing. This study focused on Daegu in Korea. This city, one of the hottest city in Korea has basin form. We used high-resolution land cover data and land surface temperature by using Landsat8 satellite image to examine 100 randomly selected sample sites of 884.15km2 (1)In each land use, we quantified several landscape-levels and class-level landscape metrics for the sample study sites. (2)In addition, we measured the land surface temperature in 3 year hot summer seasons (July to September). Then, we investigated the pattern of land surface temperature for each land use through Ecognition package. (3)We deducted the Pearson correlation coefficients between land surface temperature and each landscape metrics. (4)We analyzed the variance among the four land uses. (5)Using linear regression, we determined land surface temperature model for each land use. (6)Through this analysis, we aims to examine the best pattern of land cover and artificial structure for reducing urban heat island effect in highly urbanized city. The results of linear regression showed that proportional land cover of grass, tree, water and impervious surfaces well explained the temperature in apartment residential areas. In contrast, the changes in the pattern of water, grass, tree and impervious surfaces were the best to determine the temperature in low rise residential area, central business district and industrial area.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Viewing Integrated-Circuit Interconnections By SEM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawton, Russel A.; Gauldin, Robert E.; Ruiz, Ronald P.

1990-01-01

Back-scattering of energetic electrons reveals hidden metal layers. Experiment shows that with suitable operating adjustments, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) used to look for defects in aluminum interconnections in integrated circuits. Enables monitoring, in situ, of changes in defects caused by changes in temperature. Gives truer picture of defects, as etching can change stress field of metal-and-passivation pattern, causing changes in defects.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural communities in the United States

Treesearch

Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; D Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate such as temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer (USEPA 2009). In the last decade, there has been a clear consensus among scientists that the world is experiencing a rapid global climate change, much of it attributable to anthropogenic activities. The extent of...

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Effects of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Identified in Midlatitude Mesospheric Rayleigh-Scatter Lidar Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.

2014-12-01

Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.

Physical mechanism or evolutionary trade-off? Factors dictating the relationship between metabolic rate and ambient temperature in carabid beetles.

PubMed

Gudowska, Agnieszka; Schramm, Bartosz W; Czarnoleski, Marcin; Kozłowski, Jan; Bauchinger, Ulf

2017-08-01

The tight association between ambient temperature (T) and metabolic rate (MR) is a common occurrence in ectotherms, but the determinants of this association are not fully understood. This study examined whether the relationship between MR and T is the same among individuals, as predicted by the Universal Temperature Dependence hypothesis, or whether this relationship differs between them. We used flow-through respirometry to measure standard MR and to determine gas exchange patterns for 111 individuals of three Carabidae species which differ in size (Abax ovalis, Carabus linnei and C. coriaceus), exposed to four different temperatures (ten individuals of each species measured at 6, 11, 16 and 21°C). We found a significant interaction between ln body mass and the inverse of temperature, indicating that in a given species, the effect of temperature on MR was weaker in larger individuals than in smaller individuals. Overall, this finding shows that the thermal dependence of MR is not body mass invariant. We observed three types of gas exchange patterns among beetles: discontinuous, cyclic and continuous. Additionally, the appearance of these patterns was associated with MR and T. Evolution in diverse terrestrial environments could affect diverse ventilation patterns, which accommodate changes in metabolism in response to temperature variation. In conclusion, explaining the variance in metabolism only through fundamental physical laws of thermodynamics, as predicted by the Universal Temperature Dependence hypothesis, appears to oversimplify the complexity of nature, ignoring evolutionary trade-offs that should be taken into account in the temperature - metabolism relationship. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in the body size of two rotifer species living in activated sludge follow the Temperature-Size Rule.

PubMed

Kiełbasa, Anna; Walczyńska, Aleksandra; Fiałkowska, Edyta; Pajdak-Stós, Agnieszka; Kozłowski, Jan

2014-12-01

Temperature-Size Rule (TSR) is a phenotypic body size response of ectotherms to changing temperature. It is known from the laboratory studies, but seasonal patterns in the field were not studied so far. We examined the body size changes in time of rotifers inhabiting activated sludge. We hypothesize that temperature is the most influencing parameter in sludge environment, leading sludge rotifers to seasonally change their body size according to TSR, and that oxygen content also induces the size response. The presence of TSR in Lecane inermis rotifer was tested in a laboratory study with two temperature and two food-type treatments. The effect of interaction between temperature and food was significant; L. inermis followed TSR in one food type only. The seasonal variability in the body sizes of the rotifers L. inermis and Cephalodella gracilis was estimated by monthly sampling and analyzed by multiple regression, in relation to the sludge parameters selected as the most influential by multivariate analysis, and predicted to alter rotifer body size (temperature and oxygen). L. inermis varied significantly in size throughout the year, and this variability is explained by temperature as predicted by the TSR, but not by oxygen availability. C. gracilis also varied in size, though this variability was explained by both temperature and oxygen. We suggest that sludge age acts as a mortality factor in activated sludge. It may have a seasonal effect on the body size of L. inermis and modify a possible effect of oxygen. Activated sludge habitat is driven by both biological processes and human regulation, yet its resident organisms follow general evolutionary rule as they do in other biological systems. The interspecific response patterns differ, revealing the importance of taking species-specific properties into account. Our findings are applicable to sludge properties enhancement through optimizing the conditions for its biological component.

Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change.

PubMed

Monteiro, Nuno; Cunha, Mário; Ferreira, Lídia; Vieira, Natividade; Antunes, Agostinho; Lyons, David; Jones, Adam G

2017-09-01

While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold-water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The ecology and evolution of temperature-dependent reaction norms for sex determination in reptiles: a mechanistic conceptual model.

PubMed

Pezaro, Nadav; Doody, J Sean; Thompson, Michael B

2017-08-01

Sex-determining mechanisms are broadly categorised as being based on either genetic or environmental factors. Vertebrate sex determination exhibits remarkable diversity but displays distinct phylogenetic patterns. While all eutherian mammals possess XY male heterogamety and female heterogamety (ZW) is ubiquitous in birds, poikilothermic vertebrates (fish, amphibians and reptiles) exhibit multiple genetic sex-determination (GSD) systems as well as environmental sex determination (ESD). Temperature is the factor controlling ESD in reptiles and temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles has become a focal point in the study of this phenomenon. Current patterns of climate change may cause detrimental skews in the population sex ratios of reptiles exhibiting TSD. Understanding the patterns of variation, both within and among populations and linking such patterns with the selection processes they are associated with, is the central challenge of research aimed at predicting the capacity of populations to adapt to novel conditions. Here we present a conceptual model that innovates by defining an individual reaction norm for sex determination as a range of incubation temperatures. By deconstructing individual reaction norms for TSD and revealing their underlying interacting elements, we offer a conceptual solution that explains how variation among individual reaction norms can be inferred from the pattern of population reaction norms. The model also links environmental variation with the different patterns of TSD and describes the processes from which they may arise. Specific climate scenarios are singled out as eco-evolutionary traps that may lead to demographic extinction or a transition to either male or female heterogametic GSD. We describe how the conceptual principles can be applied to interpret TSD data and to explain the adaptive capacity of TSD to climate change as well as its limits and the potential applications for conservation and management programs. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress.

PubMed

Helmuth, Brian; Broitman, Bernardo R; Yamane, Lauren; Gilman, Sarah E; Mach, Katharine; Mislan, K A S; Denny, Mark W

2010-03-15

Predicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales.

Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

PubMed

Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

2010-06-01

The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

The influence of surface versus free-air decoupling on temperature trend patterns in the western United States

Treesearch

N.C. Pepin; C. Daly; J. Lundquist

2011-01-01

We analyzed temperature trends from 460 GHCNv2 weather stations in the western United States for 1948¨C2006 to determine whether the extent of decoupling of surface temperatures from the free atmosphere influences past change. At each location we derived monthly indices representative of anticyclonicity using NCEP/NCAR 700 hPa reanalysis pressure fields. The number of...

Diel time-courses of leaf growth in monocot and dicot species: endogenous rhythms and temperature effects.

PubMed

Poiré, Richard; Wiese-Klinkenberg, Anika; Parent, Boris; Mielewczik, Michael; Schurr, Ulrich; Tardieu, François; Walter, Achim

2010-06-01

Diel (24 h) leaf growth patterns were differently affected by temperature variations and the circadian clock in several plant species. In the monocotyledon Zea mays, leaf elongation rate closely followed changes in temperature. In the dicotyledons Nicotiana tabacum, Ricinus communis, and Flaveria bidentis, the effect of temperature regimes was less obvious and leaf growth exhibited a clear circadian oscillation. These differences were related neither to primary metabolism nor to altered carbohydrate availability for growth. The effect of endogenous rhythms on leaf growth was analysed under continuous light in Arabidopsis thaliana, Ricinus communis, Zea mays, and Oryza sativa. No rhythmic growth was observed under continuous light in the two monocotyledons, while growth rhythmicity persisted in the two dicotyledons. Based on model simulations it is concluded that diel leaf growth patterns in mono- and dicotyledons result from the additive effects of both circadian-clock-controlled processes and responses to environmental changes such as temperature and evaporative demand. Apparently very distinct diel leaf growth behaviour of monocotyledons and dicotyledons can thus be explained by the different degrees to which diel temperature variations affect leaf growth in the two groups of species which, in turn, depends on the extent of the leaf growth control by internal clocks.

HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

EPA Science Inventory

The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Observation of airplane flow fields by natural condensation effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, James F.; Chambers, Joseph R.; Rumsey, Christopher L.

1988-01-01

In-flight condensation patterns can illustrate a variety of airplane flow fields, such as attached and separated flows, vortex flows, and expansion and shock waves. These patterns are a unique source of flow visualization that has not been utilized previously. Condensation patterns at full-scale Reynolds number can provide useful information for researchers experimenting in subscale tunnels. It is also shown that computed values of relative humidity in the local flow field provide an inexpensive way to analyze the qualitative features of the condensation pattern, although a more complete theoretical modeling is necessary to obtain details of the condensation process. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that relative humidity is more sensitive to changes in local static temperature than to changes in pressure.

Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pounds, J. Alan; Fogden, Michael P. L.; Campbell, John H.

1999-04-01

Recent warming has caused changes in species distribution and abundance, but the extent of the effects is unclear. Here we investigate whether such changes in highland forests at Monteverde, Costa Rica, are related to the increase in air temperatures that followed a step-like warming of tropical oceans in 1976 (refs4, 5). Twenty of 50 species of anurans (frogs and toads) in a 30-km2 study area, including the locally endemic golden toad (Bufo periglenes), disappeared following synchronous population crashes in 1987 (refs 6-8). Our results indicate that these crashes probably belong to a constellation of demographic changes that have altered communities of birds, reptiles and amphibians in the area and are linked to recent warming. The changes are all associated with patterns of dry-season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has declined dramatically since the mid-1970s. The biological and climatic patterns suggest that atmospheric warming has raised the average altitude at the base of the orographic cloud bank, as predicted by the lifting-cloud-base hypothesis,.

Long term monitoring of rock surface temperature and rock cracking in temperate and desert climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eppes, M. C.; Warren, K.; Hinson, E.; Dash, L.

2012-12-01

The extent to which diurnal cycling of temperature results in the mechanical breakdown of rock cannot be clearly defined until direct connections between rock surface temperatures and rock cracking are identified under natural conditions. With this goal, we have developed a unique instrumentation system for monitoring spatial (N-, S-, E-, W-, up- and down-facing) and temporal (per minute) temperature variability in natural boulders while simultaneously monitoring cracking via acoustic emission sensors. To date, we have collected 11 and 12 months of data respectively for ~30 cm diameter granite boulders placed in North Carolina (near Charlotte) and New Mexico (Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge). These data allow us 1) to compare and contrast spatial and temporal trends in surface temperatures of natural boulders at high temporal resolution over unprecedentedly long time scales in two contrasting environments and 2) to make direct correlations between boulder surface temperatures and periods of microcracking as recorded by acoustic emissions in both environments. Preliminary analysis of both data sets indicates that there is no obvious single high or low threshold in surface temperature or rate of surface temperature change (measurable at a per minute scale) beyond which cracking occurs for either locality. For example, for the New Mexico rock, overall rock surface temperatures ranged from -27 C to 54 C throughout the year, and rock surface temperatures during the times of peak cracking event clusters ranged from -14 C to 46 C. The majority of events occur during winter months in North Carolina and in summer in New Mexico. The majority of events occurred in the late afternoon/early evening for both localities, although the overall numbers of cracking events was significantly higher in the New Mexico locality. In both cases, the key temperature factor that appears to most often correlate with cracking is the rate of change of temperature difference across the rock surface. Large clusters of microcracking events commonly occur when the thermal gradient across the rock is rapidly changing, both positively or negatively. In most cases, this condition arises due to periods of rapid temperature change of the rock's upper surface associated with changing cloud cover, increased or decreased wind speed, or sudden rain events that follow sunny periods. As such, it appears that microcracking is often not solely associated with solar-related patterns of diurnal heating and cooling per-sea, but instead associated with weather conditions that lead to abrupt alterations of the diurnal pattern. Thus, the fact that clusters of events occur during specific times of day can be attributed to overall diurnal insolation patterns combined with rapid changes in weather that often occur during specific times of day as well. These data support the interpretation of documented preferential orientations of cracks in a variety of environments as having been formed due to stresses that arise by diurnal heating and cooling during specific times of day. As such, these data provide important inputs for numeric models by our collaborators, B. Hallet and P. Makenzie that seek to determine the exact thermo-mechanical mechanisms that link thermal cycling and rock fracture.

Potential individual versus simultaneous climate change effects on soybean (C 3) and maize (C 4) crops: An agrotechnology model based study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, Roberto J.; Niyogi, Dev; Buol, Gregory S.; Wilkerson, Gail G.; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.

2006-11-01

Landuse/landcover change induced effects on regional weather and climate patterns and the associated plant response or agricultural productivity are coupled processes. Some of the basic responses to climate change can be detected via changes in radiation ( R), precipitation ( P), and temperature ( T). Past studies indicate that each of these three variables can affect LCLUC response and the agricultural productivity. This study seeks to address the following question: What is the effect of individual versus simultaneous changes in R, P, and T on plant response such as crop yields in a C 3 and a C 4 plant? This question is addressed by conducting model experiments for soybean (C 3) and maize (C 4) crops using the DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, CROPGRO (soybean), and CERES-Maize (maize) models. These models were configured over an agricultural experiment station in Clayton, NC [35.65°N, 78.5°W]. Observed weather and field conditions corresponding to 1998 were used as the control. In the first set of experiments, the CROPGRO (soybean) and CERES-Maize (maize) responses to individual changes in R and P (25%, 50%, 75%, 150%) and T (± 1, ± 2 °C) with respect to control were studied. In the second set, R, P, and T were simultaneously changed by 50%, 150%, and ± 2 °C, and the interactions and direct effects of individual versus simultaneous variable changes were analyzed. For the model setting and the prescribed environmental changes, results from the first set of experiments indicate: (i) precipitation changes were most sensitive and directly affected yield and water loss due to evapotranspiration; (ii) radiation changes had a non-linear effect and were not as prominent as precipitation changes; (iii) temperature had a limited impact and the response was non-linear; (iv) soybeans and maize responded differently for R, P, and T, with maize being more sensitive. The results from the second set of experiments indicate that simultaneous change analyses do not necessarily agree with those from individual changes, particularly for temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that for the changing climate, precipitation (hydrological), temperature, and radiative feedbacks show a non-linear effect on yield. Study results also indicate that for studying the feedback between the land surface and the atmospheric changes, (i) there is a need for performing simultaneous parameter changes in the response assessment of cropping patterns and crop yield based on ensembles of projected climate change, and (ii) C 3 crops are generally considered more sensitive than C 4; however, the temperature-radiation related changes shown in this study also effected significant changes in C 4 crops. Future studies assessing LCLUC impacts, including those from agricultural cropping patterns and other LCULC-climate couplings, should advance beyond the sensitivity mode and consider multivariable, ensemble approaches to identify the vulnerability and feedbacks in estimating climate-related impacts.

Pork Quality Traits According to Postmortem pH and Temperature in Berkshire

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Wan; Kim, Chul Wook; Yang, Mi Ra; No, Gun Ryoung; Kim, Il-Suk

2016-01-01

This study was performed to investigate the role of pH and temperature postmortem, and to demonstrate the importance of these factors in determining meat quality. Postmortem pH45min (pH at 45 min postmortem or initial pH) via analysis of Pearson’s correlation showed high positive correlation with pH change pHc24 (pH change from pH45min to pH24h postmortem). However, postmortem pH after 24 h (pH24h or ultimate pH) had a high negative correlation with pH change, pHc24, CIE L*, and protein content. Initial temperature postmortem (T1h ) was positively associated with a change in temperature from 45 min to 24 h postmortem (Tc24) and cooking loss, but negatively correlated with water holding capacity. Temperature at 24 h postmortem (T24h) was negatively associated with Tc24. Collectively, these results indicate that higher initial pH was associated with higher pHc24, T1h, and Tc24. However, higher initial pH was associated with a reduction in carcass weight, backfat thickness, CIE a* and b*, water holding capacity, collagen and fat content, drip loss, and cooking loss as well as decreased shear force. In contrast, CIE a* and b*, drip loss, cooking loss, and shear force in higher ultimate pH was showed by a similar pattern to higher initial pH, whereas pHc24, carcass weight, backfat thickness, water holding capacity, fat content, moisture content, protein content, T1h, T24h, and Tc24 were exhibited by completely differential patterns (p<0.05). Therefore, we suggest that initial pH, ultimate pH, and temperatures postmortem are important factors in determining the meat quality of pork. PMID:27499661

Landscape-scale processes influence riparian plant composition along a regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Emily C.; Ralston, Barbara; Merritt, David M.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2018-01-01

Hierarchical frameworks are useful constructs when exploring landscape- and local-scale factors affecting patterns of vegetation in riparian areas. In drylands, which have steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity, landscape-scale variables, such as climate, can change rapidly along a river's course, affecting the relative influence of environmental variables at different scales. To assess how landscape-scale factors change the structure of riparian vegetation, we measured riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon, determined which factors best explain observed changes, identified how richness and functional diversity vary, and described the implications of our results for river management. Cluster analysis identified three divergent floristic groups that are distributed longitudinally along the river. These groups were distributed along gradients of elevation, temperature and seasonal precipitation, but were not associated with annual precipitation or local-scale factors. Species richness and functional diversity decreased as a function of distance downstream showing that changing landscape-scale factors result in changes to ecosystem characteristics. Species composition and distribution remain closely linked to seasonal precipitation and temperature. These patterns in floristic composition in a semiarid system inform management and provide insights into potential future changes as a result of shifts in climate and changes in flow management.

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R.

2014-01-01

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Relations between fish abundances, summer temperatures, and forest harvest in a northern Minnesota stream system from 1997 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merten, Eric C.; Hemstad, Nathaniel A.; Eggert, S.L.; Johnson, L.B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Newman, Raymond M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2010-01-01

Short-term effects of forest harvest on fish habitat have been well documented, including sediment inputs, leaf litter reductions, and stream warming. However, few studies have considered changes in local climate when examining postlogging changes in fish communities. To address this need, we examined fish abundances between 1997 and 2007 in a basin in a northern hardwood forest. Streams in the basin were subjected to experimental riparian forest harvest in fall 1997. We noted a significant decrease for fish index of biotic integrity and abundance of Salvelinus fontinalis and Phoxinus eos over the study period. However, for P. eos and Culaea inconstans, the temporal patterns in abundances were related more to summer air temperatures than to fine sediment or spring precipitation when examined using multiple regressions. Univariate regressions suggested that summer air temperatures influenced temporal patterns in fish communities more than fine sediment or spring precipitation.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance

PubMed Central

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Abstract Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3–0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach. PMID:27933165

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance.

PubMed

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3-0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach.

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of an integrated climate adaptation strategy.

Spatial patterns of stream temperatures and electric conductivity in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieder, Ernestine; Weiler, Markus; Blume, Theresa

2017-04-01

Stream temperature and electric conductivity (EC) are both relatively easily measured and can provide valuable information on runoff generation processes and catchment storage.This study investigates the spatial variability of stream temperature and EC in a mesoscale basin. We focus on the mesoscale (sub-catchments and reach scale), and long term (seasonal / annual) stream temperature and EC patterns. Our study basin is the Attert catchment in Luxembourg (288km2), which contains multiple sub-catchments of different geology, topography and land use patterns. We installed 90 stream temperature and EC sensors at sites across the basin in summer 2015. The collected data is complemented by land use and discharge data and an extensive climate data set. Thermal sensitivity was calculated as the slope of daily air temperature-water-temperature regression line and describes the sensitivity of stream temperature to long term environmental change. Amplitude sensitivity was calculated as slope of the daily air and water temperature amplitude regression and describes the short term warming capacity of the stream. We found that groups with similar long term thermal and EC patterns are strongly related to different geological units. The sandstone reaches show the coldest temperatures and lowest annual thermal sensitivity to air temperature. The slate reaches are characterized by comparably low EC and high daily temperature amplitudes and amplitude sensitivity. Furthermore, mean annual temperatures and thermal sensitivities increase exponentially with drainage area, which can be attributed to the accumulation of heat throughout the system. On the reach scale, daily stream temperature fluctuations or sensitivities were strongly influenced by land cover distribution, stream shading and runoff volume. Daily thermal sensitivities were low for headwater streams; peaked for intermediate reaches in the middle of the catchment and then decreased again further downstream with increasing drainage area. Combining spatially distributed time series of stream temperatures and EC with information about geology, landscape and climate provides insight into the underlying hydrological processes and allows for the identification of thermally sensitive regions and reaches.

Cool night-time temperatures induce the expression of CONSTANS and FLOWERING LOCUS T to regulate flowering in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Kinmonth-Schultz, Hannah A; Tong, Xinran; Lee, Jae; Song, Young Hun; Ito, Shogo; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Imaizumi, Takato

2016-07-01

Day length and ambient temperature are major stimuli controlling flowering time. To understand flowering mechanisms in more natural conditions, we explored the effect of daily light and temperature changes on Arabidopsis thaliana. Seedlings were exposed to different day/night temperature and day-length treatments to assess expression changes in flowering genes. Cooler temperature treatments increased CONSTANS (CO) transcript levels at night. Night-time CO induction was diminished in flowering bhlh (fbh)-quadruple mutants. FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) transcript levels were reduced at dusk, but increased at the end of cooler nights. The dusk suppression, which was alleviated in short vegetative phase (svp) mutants, occurred particularly in younger seedlings, whereas the increase during the night continued over 2 wk. Cooler temperature treatments altered the levels of FLOWERING LOCUS M-β (FLM-β) and FLM-δ splice variants. FT levels correlated strongly with flowering time across treatments. Day/night temperature changes modulate photoperiodic flowering by changing FT accumulation patterns. Cooler night-time temperatures enhance FLOWERING BHLH (FBH)-dependent induction of CO and consequently increase CO protein. When plants are young, cooler temperatures suppress FT at dusk through SHORT VEGETATIVE PHASE (SVP) function, perhaps to suppress precocious flowering. Our results suggest day length and diurnal temperature changes combine to modulate FT and flowering time. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

On the Origin of Multidecadal to Centennial Greenland Temperature Anomalies Over the Past 800 yr

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-01-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35%of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-03-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Growth patterns of an intertidal gastropod as revealed by oxygen isotope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Hill, T. M.; Guerra, C.

2007-12-01

The size and morphology of mollusk shells are affected by environmental conditions. As a result, it is difficult to assess growth rate, population age structure, shell morphologies associated with ontogenetic stages, and to compare life history patterns across various environments. Oxygen isotope analysis is a useful tool for estimating minimum ages and growth rates of calcium carbonate secreting organisms. Calcite shell material from members of two northern California populations of the intertidal muricid gastropod Acanthinucella spirata was sampled for isotopic analysis. Individual shells were sampled from apex to margin, thus providing a sequential record of juvenile and adult growth. A. spirata were collected from a sheltered habitat in Tomales Bay and from an exposed reef in Bolinas. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, wave exposure, and substrate consistency, and biotic composition differ significantly between these sites, possibly resulting in local adaptations and variation in life history and growth patterns. Shell morphology of A. spirata changes with age as internal shell margin thickenings of denticle rows associated with external growth bands are irregularly accreted. It is not known when, either seasonally and/or ontogentically, these thickenings and bands form or whether inter or intra-populational variation exists. Preliminary results demonstrate the seasonal oxygen isotopic variability present at the two coastal sites, indicating 5-6 degC changes from winter to summertime temperatures; these data are consistent with local intertidal temperature records. Analysis of the seasonal patterns indicate that: 1) differences in growth rate and seasonal growth patterns at different ontogenetic stages within populations, and 2) differences in growth patterns and possibly age structure between the two A. spirata populations. These findings indicate that isotopic analyses, in addition to field observations and morphological measurements, are necessary to assess life history strategies and compare population dynamics under varying environmental conditions.

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

Climate Change and Your National Forest: Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the El Yunque National Forest

Treesearch

L.N. Jennings; E.A. Treasure; S.G. McNulty

2013-01-01

Forestlands across the world are experiencing increased threats from fire, insect and plant invasions, disease, extreme weather, and drought. Scientists project increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns that can make these threats occur more often, with more intensity, and/or for longer durations. Although many of the effects of future changes are...

Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, C.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

With increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns associated with global climate change, the future of hydrologic resources related to snowmelt is less certain than ever. Most existing snowmelt hydrology research focuses on mountainous regions such as the western United States, where snowpack is a primary reservoir of available freshwater. Less research has been done on snowmelt hydrology in non-mountainous, temperate middle to upper latitude regions such as the Midwestern US, where snowmelt is still an important contributor to water budgets (and critically summer water supplies). This study examines the changes to watershed hydrology due to changing snowmelt patterns in Michigan, which has a tension line between seasonally-persistent snowpacks in the north, and episodic snowpacks in the south. This transition varies in space and time, and is likely moving northward as a consequence of climate change. Changes to snow and winter weather were statistically determined from output of the NOAA's Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) model along with historical weather data from the Global Historical Climatology Network. Stream data from the USGS, combined with in-house monitoring data from groundwater and soil moisture networks provide insight into the hydrologic changes. Snowmelt in years with warmer winter temperatures tend to end earlier in the year, resulting in earlier peak stream flows. These changes become more noticeable in the northern regions of the state, where snowfall amounts can be amongst the largest in the country. This study also examines the changing spatial transition zone between regions with snow lasting throughout the season and regions with a more episodic snow presence. In an area with some of the largest freshwater resources in the world, significant changes to streamflow and groundwater recharge could impact already stressed ecosystems and local water supplies.

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Perceived Cooling Using Asymmetrically-Applied Hot and Cold Stimuli.

PubMed

Manasrah, Ahmad; Crane, Nathan; Guldiken, Rasim; Reed, Kyle B

2017-01-01

Temperature perception is a highly nonlinear phenomenon with faster rates of change being perceived at much lower thresholds than slower rates. This paper presents a method that takes advantage of this nonlinear characteristic to generate a perception of continuous cooling even though the average temperature is not changing. The method uses multiple thermal actuators so that a few are cooling quickly while the rest of the actuators are heating slowly. The slowly-heating actuators are below the perceptual threshold temperature change and hence are not perceived, while the quickly-cooling actuators are above the perceptual temperature change, hence are perceived. As a result, a feeling of decreasing temperature was elicited, when in fact, there was no net change in the temperature of the skin. Three sets of judiciously designed experiments were conducted in this study, investigating the effects of actuator sizes, forearm measurement locations, patterns of actuator layout, and various heating/cooling time cycles. Our results showed that 19 out 21 participants perceived the continuous cooling effect as hypothesized. Our research indicates that the measurement location, heating/cooling cycle times, and arrangement of the actuators affect the perception of continuous cooling.

Mountain uplift explains differences in Palaeogene patterns of mammalian evolution and extinction between North America and Europe

PubMed Central

Eronen, Jussi T.; Janis, Christine M.; Chamberlain, C. Page; Mulch, Andreas

2015-01-01

Patterns of late Palaeogene mammalian evolution appear to be very different between Eurasia and North America. Around the Eocene–Oligocene (EO) transition global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummet: following this, European mammal faunas undergo a profound extinction event (the Grande Coupure), while in North America they appear to pass through this temperature event unscathed. Here, we investigate the role of surface uplift to environmental change and mammalian evolution through the Palaeogene (66–23 Ma). Palaeogene regional surface uplift in North America caused large-scale reorganization of precipitation patterns, particularly in the continental interior, in accord with our combined stable isotope and ecometric data. Changes in mammalian faunas reflect that these were dry and high-elevation palaeoenvironments. The scenario of Middle to Late Eocene (50–37 Ma) surface uplift, together with decreasing precipitation in higher-altitude regions of western North America, explains the enigma of the apparent lack of the large-scale mammal faunal change around the EO transition that characterized western Europe. We suggest that North American mammalian faunas were already pre-adapted to cooler and drier conditions preceding the EO boundary, resulting from the effects of a protracted history of surface uplift. PMID:26041349

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

PubMed

Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

2015-07-13

The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Biological Rhythms and Temperature Regulation in Rhesus Monkeys During Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuller, Charles A. (Principal Investigator)

1996-01-01

This program examined the influence of microgravity on temperature regulation and circadian timekeeping systems in Rhesus monkeys. Animals flown on the Soviet Biosatellite COSMOS 2229 were exposed to 11 2/3 days of microgravity. The circadian patterns temperature regulation, heart rate and activity were monitored constantly. This experiment has extended previous observations from COSMOS 1514 and 2044, as well as provided insights into the physiological mechanisms that produce these changes.

Regional Glacier Sensitivity to Climate Change in the Monsoonal Himalaya: Implications for Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Tsering, K.; Rinzin, T.; Dorji, C.; Johnson, E. S.; Cook, E. R.

2014-12-01

The rapid retreat of many glaciers in the monsoonal Himalaya is of potential societal concern. However, the retreat pattern in the region has been very heterogeneous, likely due in part to the inherent heterogeneity of climate and glaciers within the region. Assessing the impacts of glacier change on water resources, hydroelectric power, and hazard potential requires a detailed understanding of this potentially complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to climate change. Here we quantify glacier surface-mass balance and meltwater flux across the entire glacierized region of the Bhutanese watershed using a full surface-energy and -mass balance model validated with field data. We then test the sensitivity of the glaciers to climatic change and compare the results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes. Bhutan is chosen because it (1) sits in the bulls-eye of the monsoon, (2) has >600 glaciers that exhibit the extreme glacier heterogeneity typical of the Himalayas, and (3) faces many of the economic and hazard challenges associated with glacier changes in the Himalaya. Therefore, the methods and results from this study should be broadly applicable to other regions of the monsoonal Himalaya. Our modeling results show a complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to changes in climate across the Bhutanese Himalaya. However, our results also show that <15% of the glaciers in Bhutan account for >90% of the total meltwater flux, and that these glaciers are uniformly the glaciers most sensitive to changes in temperature (and less sensitive to other climate variables). We compare these results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes over the same region. In particular, we extract DEMs and orthorectified imagery from 1976 historical spy satellite images and 2006 ASTER images. DEM differencing shows that the glaciers that have changed most over the past thirty years also have the highest modeled temperature sensitivity. These results suggest that, despite the complex glacier heterogeneity in the region, the regional meltwater resources are controlled by a very small percentage of the glaciers, and that these glaciers are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature.

Do diurnal patterns of branch carbon uptake and transpiration recover after heat waves? Results from a Mediterranean-type ecosystem experiencing seasonal and exceptional drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pivovaroff, A. L.; Pesqueira, A.; Sun, W.; Seibt, U.

2016-12-01

Mediterranean-type ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots, but increasing temperature and changes in precipitation will have significant impacts on vegetation, as evidenced by the current die-back of many woody species in southern California, USA, due to exceptional drought conditions. We installed flow-through chambers on four native woody plant species at Stunt Ranch, a University of California Natural Reserve System site, in order to continuously monitor fluxes of carbon and water at the branch-scale from the growing season through the annual seasonal drought period. Study species included Heteromeles arbutifolia, Malosma laurina, Salvia leucophylla, and Quercus agrifolia. Here we present the results of diurnal flux patterns before, during, and after two extreme heat waves events, when daily maximum temperatures doubled. Under typical summer conditions, which include hot, sunny days, study species exhibited two peaks in carbon assimilation during a diurnal cycle: a peak in the morning and a smaller, secondary peak in the afternoon, separated by a midday depression. During heat wave events, which generally lasted 3 days, species exhibited a small morning peak and no afternoon peak at all. All study species returned to their pre-heat wave diurnal flux patterns, which included the second afternoon peak, when weather conditions returned to normal. Since soil moisture was not affected by the short-term heat wave events, we conclude that the pronounced changes in diurnal patterns, including disappearance of the secondary afternoon peak, are the result of stomatal regulation in response to atmospheric water demand rather than root responses to soil moisture deficits. Our results demonstrate that carbon uptake of native species may be impacted under ongoing climate change when increased temperatures and drought conditions may be sustained.

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Trærup, Sara L. M.; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

2011-01-01

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation. PMID:22408580

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

Apparatuses and methods for removal of ink buildup

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cudzinovic, Michael; Pass, Thomas; Rogers, Rob

A substrate patterning method including the steps of spraying ink on a surface of a substrate, the spraying of the ink resulting in an overspray of excess ink past an edge of the substrate; changing a temperature of the excess ink to cause a change in a viscosity of the excess ink; and removing the excess ink having the changed viscosity.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Temperature and field direction dependences of first-order reversal curve (FORC) diagrams of hot-deformed Nd-Fe-B magnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yomogita, Takahiro; Okamoto, Satoshi; Kikuchi, Nobuaki; Kitakami, Osamu; Sepehri-Amin, Hossein; Ohkubo, Tadakatsu; Hono, Kazuhiro; Akiya, Takahiro; Hioki, Keiko; Hattori, Atsushi

2018-02-01

First-order reversal curve (FORC) diagram has been previously adopted for the analyses of magnetization reversal process and/or quantitative evaluation of coercivity and interaction field dispersions in various magnetic samples. Although these kinds of information are valuable for permanent magnets, previously reported FORC diagrams of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets exhibit very complicated patterns. In this paper, we have studied the FORC diagrams of hot-deformed Nd-Fe-B magnets under various conditions. Contrary to the previous reports on sintered Nd-Fe-B magnets, the FORC diagram of the hot-deformed Nd-Fe-B magnet exhibits a very simple pattern consisting of a strong spot and a weak line. From this FORC diagram pattern, it is revealed that the coercivity dispersion of the hot-deformed Nd-Fe-B magnets is surprisingly small. Moreover, this feature of the FORC diagram pattern is very robust and unaffected by changes in various conditions such as grain boundary diffusion process, temperature, and field direction, whereas these conditions significantly change the coercivity and the shape of magnetization curve. This fact indicates that the magnetization reversal process of the hot-deformed Nd-Fe-B magnets is almost unchanged against these conditions.

The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Sepulveda, Adam J.; Tercek, Michael T.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann W.; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change. PMID:26674185

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam; Tercek, Mike T; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Ray, Andrew; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

The effect of Holocene temperature fluctuations on the evolution and ecology of Neotoma (woodrats) in Idaho and northwestern Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, F.A.; Betancourt, J.L.

2003-01-01

Animals respond to climatic change by adapting or by altering distributional patterns. How an animal responds is influenced by where it is positioned within its geographic range; the probability of extirpation is increased near range boundaries. Here, we examine the impact of Holocene climatic fluctuations on a small mammalian herbivore, the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea), at five locations within south central Idaho and northwestern Utah. Previous work demonstrated that woodrats adapt to temperature shifts by altering body size. We focus here on the relationship between body mass, temperature, and location within the geographic range. Body mass is estimated by measuring fossil fecal pellets, a technique validated in earlier work. Overall, we find the predicted phenotypic response to climate change: Animals were larger during cold periods, and smaller during warmer episodes. However, we also identify several time periods when changes in environmental temperature exceeded the adaptive flexibility of N. cinerea. A smaller-bodied species, the desert woodrat (N. lepida) apparently invaded lower elevation sites during the mid-Holocene, despite being behaviorally and physically subordinate to N. cinerea. Analysis of contemporary patterns of body size and thermal tolerances for both woodrat species suggests this was because of the greater heat tolerance of N. lepida. The robust spatial relationship between contemporary body size and ambient temperature is used as a proxy to reconstruct local climate during the Holocene. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off: expanding the ecohydrological emphasis more explicitly on atmospheric demand. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Adams, H. D.; Eamus, D.; McDowell, N. G.; Law, D. J.; Will, R. E.; Williams, P.; Zou, C.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrology focuses on the interactions of water availability, ecosystem productivity, and biogeochemical cycles via ecological-hydrological connections. These connections can be particularly pronounced and socially relevant when there are large-scale rapid changes in vegetation. One such key change, vegetation mortality, can be triggered by drought and is projected to become more frequent and/or extensive in the future under changing climate. Recent research on drought-induced vegetation die-off has focused primarily on direct drought effects, such as soil moisture deficit, and, to a much lesser degree, the potential for warmer temperatures to exacerbate stress and accelerate mortality. However, temperature is tightly interrelated with atmospheric demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) but the latter has rarely been considered explicitly relative to die-off events. Here we highlight the importance of VPD in addition to soil moisture deficit and warmer temperature as an important driver of future die-off. Recent examples highlighting the importance of VPD include mortality patterns corresponding to VPD drivers, a strong dependence of forest growth on VPD, patterns of observed mortality along an environmental gradient, an experimentally-determined climate envelope for mortality, and a suite of modeling simulations segregating the drought effects of VPD from those of temperature. The vast bulk of evidence suggests that atmospheric demand needs to be considered in addition to temperature and soil moisture deficit in predicting risk of future vegetation die-off and associated ecohydrological transformations.

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Day, Richard H; Hall, Courtney T; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason L; Jones, William R

2017-01-01

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6°C). We expect that in the past 121 yr, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Design, Analysis, and On-Sun Evaluation of Reflective Strips Under Controlled Buckling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, Donald A.; Sechkar, Edward A.; Colozza, Anthony J.

2014-01-01

Solar concentrators are envisioned for use in a variety of space-based applications, including applications involving in situ resource utilization. Identifying solar concentrators that minimize mass and cost are of great interest, especially since launch cost is driven in part by the mass of the payload. Concentrators must also be able to survive the wide temperature excursions on the lunar surface. Identifying smart structures which compensate for changes in concentrator geometry brought about by temperature extremes are of interest. Some applications may benefit from the ability to change the concentrators focal pattern at will. This paper addresses a method of designing a single reflective strip to produce a desired focal pattern through the use of controlled buckling. Small variations in the cross section over the length of the reflective strip influence the distribution of light in the focal region. A finite element method of analysis is utilized here which calculates the curve produced for a given strip cross section and axial load. Varying axial force and strip cross section over the length of the reflective strip provide a means of optimizing ray convergence in the focal region. Careful selection of a tapered cross section yields a reflective strip that approximates a parabola. An array of reflective strips under controlled buckling produces a light weight concentrator and adjustments in the compression of individual strips provide a means of compensating for temperature excursions or changing the focal pattern at will.

Design, Analysis, and On-Sun Evaluation of Reflective Strips Under Controlled Buckling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, D. A.; Sechkar, E. A.; Colozza, A. J.

2014-01-01

Solar concentrators are envisioned for use in a variety of space-based applications, including applications involving in situ resource utilization. Identifying solar concentrators that minimize mass and cost are of great interest, especially since launch cost is driven in part by the mass of the payload. Concentrators must also be able to survive the wide temperature excursions on the lunar surface. Identifying smart structures which compensate for changes in concentrator geometry brought about by temperature extremes are of interest. Some applications may benefit from the ability to change the concentrator's focal pattern at will. This paper addresses a method of designing a single reflective strip to produce a desired focal pattern through the use of controlled buckling. Small variations in the cross section over the length of the reflective strip influence the distribution of light in the focal region. A finite element method of analysis is utilized here which calculates the curve produced for a given strip cross section and axial load. Varying axial force and strip cross section over the length of the reflective strip provide a means of optimizing ray convergence in the focal region. Careful selection of a tapered cross section yields a reflective strip that approximates a parabola. An array of reflective strips under controlled buckling produces a light weight concentrator and adjustments in the compression of individual strips provide a means of compensating for temperature excursions or changing the focal pattern at will.

Mechanisms involved in the regulation of photosynthetic efficiency and carbohydrate partitioning in response to low- and high-temperature flooding triggered in winter rye (Secale cereale) lines with distinct pink snow mold resistances.

PubMed

Pociecha, E; Rapacz, M; Dziurka, M; Kolasińska, I

2016-07-01

In terms of climate changes and global warming, winter hardiness could be determined by unfavorable environmental conditions other than frost. These could include flooding from melting snow and/or rain, coincident with fungal diseases. Therefore, we designed an experiment to identify potential common mechanisms of flooding tolerance and snow mold resistance, involving the regulation of photosynthetic efficiency and carbohydrate metabolism at low temperatures. Snow mold-resistant and susceptible winter rye (Secale cereale) plants were characterized by considerably different patterns of response to flooding. These differences were clearer at low temperature, thus confirming a possible role of the observed changes in snow mold tolerance. The resistant plants were characterized by lower PSII quantum yields at low temperature, combined with much higher energy flux for energy dissipation from the PSII reaction center. During flooding, the level of soluble carbohydrates increased in the resistant plants and decreased in the susceptible ones. Thus increase in resistant line was connected with a decrease in the energy dissipation rate in PSII/increased photosynthetic activity (energy flux for electron transport), a lower rate of starch degradation and higher rates of sucrose metabolism in leaves. The resistant lines accumulated larger amounts of total soluble carbohydrates in the crowns than in the leaves. Irrespective of flooding treatment, the resistant lines allocated more sugars for cell wall composition, both in the leaves and crowns. Our results clearly indicated that studies on carbohydrate changes at low temperatures or during anoxia should investigate not only the alterations in water-soluble and storage carbohydrates, but also cell wall carbohydrates. The patterns of changes observed after low and high-temperature flooding were different, indicating separate control mechanisms of these responses. These included changes in the photosynthetic apparatus, starch accumulation and cell wall carbohydrate accumulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission. Methods To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain. Results Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus. Conclusions Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates. PMID:25030527

MECO Warming Changes Continental Rainfall Patterns in Eocene Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Methner, K.; Mulch, A.; Fiebig, J.; Wacker, U.; Gerdes, A.; Graham, S. A.; Chamberlain, C. P.

2016-12-01

Eocene hyperthermals represent temperature extremes superimposed on an existing warm climate. They dramatically affected the marine and terrestrial biosphere, but still remain among the most enigmatic phenomena of Cenozoic climate dynamics. To evaluate the impacts of global warm periods on terrestrial temperature and rainfall records in continental interiors, we sampled a suite of middle Eocene ( 40 Ma) paleosols from a high-elevation mammal fossil locality in the hinterland of the North American Cordillera (Sage Creek Basin, Montana, USA) and integrated laser ablation U-Pb dating of pedogenic carbonate, stable isotope (δ18O) and clumped isotope temperature (Δ47) records. Δ47 temperature data of soil carbonates progressively increase from 23 °C ±3 °C to peak temperatures of 32 °C ±3 °C and subsequently drop to 21 °C ±2 °C and delineate a rapid +9/-11 °C temperature excursion in the paleosol record. This hyperthermal event is accompanied by large and rapid shifts towards low δ18O values and reduced pedogenic CaCO3 contents. U-Pb geochronology of the paleosol carbonate confirms a middle Eocene age for soil carbonate formation (39.5 ±1.4 Ma and 40.1 ±0.8 Ma). Based on U-Pb geochronology, magneto- and biostratigraphy we suggest that the recorded Δ47 temperature excursion reflects peak warming during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO). The MECO in continental western North America appears to be characterized by warmer and wetter (sub-humid) conditions in this high-elevation site. Shifts in δ18O values of precipitation and pedogenic CaCO3 contents parallel temperature changes and require modification of mid-latitude rainfall patterns, indicating a profound impact of the MECO on the hydrological cycle and consequently on atmospheric circulation patterns in the hinterland of the North American Cordillera.

Reflectance Speckle of Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Reveals Axonal Activity

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiang-Run; Knighton, Robert W.; Zhou, Ye; Zhao, Xiao-Peng

2013-01-01

Purpose. This study investigated the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) reflectance speckle and tested the hypothesis that temporal change of RNFL speckle reveals axonal dynamic activity. Methods. RNFL reflectance speckle of isolated rat retinas was studied with monochromatic illumination. A series of reflectance images was collected every 5 seconds for approximately 15 minutes. Correlation coefficients (CC) of selected areas between a reference and subsequent images were calculated and plotted as a function of the time intervals between images. An exponential function fit to the time course was used to evaluate temporal change of speckle pattern. To relate temporal change of speckle to axonal activity, in vitro living retina perfused at a normal (34°C) and a lower (24°C) temperature, paraformaldehyde-fixed retina, and retina treated with microtubule depolymerization were used. Results. RNFL reflectance was not uniform; rather nerve fiber bundles had a speckled texture that changed with time. In normally perfused retina, the time constant of the CC change was 0.56 ± 0.26 minutes. In retinas treated with lower temperature and microtubule depolymerization, the time constants increased by two to four times, indicating that the speckle pattern changed more slowly. The speckled texture in fixed retina was stationary. Conclusions. Fixation stops axonal activity; treatments with either lower temperature or microtubule depolymerization are known to decrease axonal transport. The results obtained in this study suggest that temporal change of RNFL speckle reveals structural change due to axonal activity. Assessment of RNFL reflectance speckle may offer a new means of evaluating axonal function. PMID:23532525

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Hofstra, Nynke; Franz, Eelco

2013-05-15

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, A. J.; Westervelt, D. M.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D.; Correa, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2018-03-01

Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature changes are estimated. In spite of a temperature drift in the control and large internal variability, 200 year simulations yield statistically significant regional surface temperature responses to the removal of U.S. SO2 emissions. Both local and remote surface temperature changes occur in all models, and the patterns of changes are similar between models for northern hemisphere land regions. We find a global average temperature sensitivity to U.S. SO2 emissions of 0.0055 K per Tg(SO2) per year with a range of (0.0036, 0.0078). We examine global and regional responses in SO4 burdens, aerosol optical depths (AODs), and effective radiative forcing (ERF). While changes in AOD and ERF are concentrated near the source region (United States), the temperature response is spread over the northern hemisphere with amplification of the temperature increase toward the Arctic. In all models, we find a significant response of dust concentrations, which affects the AOD but has no obvious effect on surface temperature. Temperature sensitivity to the ERF of U.S. SO2 emissions is found to differ from the models' sensitivity to radiative forcing of doubled CO2.

Pattern Analysis of El Nino and La Nina Phenomenon Based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Rainfall Intensity using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in West Java Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras

2017-12-01

Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day - 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.

Phasic and tonic fluctuations in brain, muscle, and skin temperatures during motivated drinking behavior in rats: physiological correlates of motivation and reward.

PubMed

Smirnov, Michael S; Kiyatkin, Eugene A

2010-01-15

Since brain metabolism is accompanied by heat production, measurement of brain temperature offers a method for assessing global alterations in metabolic neural activity. This approach, high-resolution (5-s bin) temperature recording from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), temporal muscle, and facial skin, was used to study motivated drinking behavior in rats. Experienced animals were presented with a cup containing 5-ml of Coca-Cola(R) (Coke) beverage that resulted, within certain latencies, in initiation of a continuous chain of licking until all liquid was fully consumed. While cup presentation induced rapid, gradual NAcc temperature increase peaking at the start of drinking, temperatures slowly decreased during Coke consumption, but phasically increased again in the post-consumption period when rats were hyperactive, showing multiple interactions with an empty cup. Muscle temperatures followed a similar pattern, but the changes were weaker and delayed compared to those in the brain. Skin temperature rapidly dropped after cup presentation, steadily maintained at low levels during consumption, and slowly restored during the post-consumption period. Substitution of the expected Coke with either sugar-free Diet Coke(R) or water resulted in numerous drinking attempts but ultimately no consumption. During these tests, locomotor activation was much greater and more prolonged, brain and muscle temperatures increased monophasically, and their elevation was significantly greater than that with regular Coke tests. Food deprivation decreased drinking latencies, did not change the pattern of temperature fluctuations during Coke consumption, but temperature elevations were greater than in controls. Our data suggest sustained neural activation triggered by appetitive stimuli and associated with activational (seeking) aspects of appetitive motivated behavior. This seeking-related activation is rapidly ceased following consumption, suggesting this change as a neural correlate of reward. In contrast, inability to obtain an expected reward maintains neural activation and seeking behavior, resulting in larger deviations in physiological parameters. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Phasic and tonic fluctuations in brain, muscle and skin temperatures during motivated drinking behavior in rats: physiological correlates of motivation and reward

PubMed Central

Smirnov, Michael S.; Kiyatkin, Eugene A.

2009-01-01

Since brain metabolism is accompanied by heat production, measurement of brain temperature offers a method for assessing global alterations in metabolic neural activity. This approach, high-resolution (5-s bin) temperature recording from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), temporal muscle, and facial skin, was used to study motivated drinking behavior in rats. Experienced animals were presented with a cup containing 5-ml of Coca-Cola® (Coke) beverage that resulted, within certain latencies, in initiation of a continuous chain of licking until all liquid was fully consumed. While cup presentation induced rapid, gradual NAcc temperature increase peaking at the start of drinking, temperatures slowly decreased during Coke consumption, but phasically increased again in the post-consumption period when rats were hyperactive, showing multiple interactions with an empty cup. Muscle temperatures followed a similar pattern, but the changes were weaker and delayed compared to those in the brain. Skin temperature rapidly dropped after cup presentation, steadily maintained at low levels during consumption, and slowly restored during the post-consumption period. Substitution of the expected Coke with either sugar-free Diet Coke® or water resulted in numerous drinking attempts but ultimately no consumption. During these tests, locomotor activation was much greater and more prolonged, brain and muscle temperatures increased monophasically, and their elevation was significantly greater than that with regular Coke tests. Food deprivation decreased drinking latencies, did not change the pattern of temperature fluctuations during Coke consumption, but temperature elevations were greater than in controls. Our data suggest sustained neural activation triggered by appetitive stimuli and associated with activational (seeking) aspects of appetitive motivated behavior. This seeking-related activation is rapidly ceased following consumption, suggesting this change as a neural correlate of reward. In contrast, inability to obtain an expected reward maintains neural activation and seeking behavior, resulting in larger deviations in physiological parameters. PMID:19932691

Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the swedish integrated monitoring sites with the integrated catchments model for carbon, INCA-C.

PubMed

Futter, M N; Löfgren, S; Köhler, S J; Lundin, L; Moldan, F; Bringmark, L

2011-12-01

Surface water concentrations of dissolved organic carbon ([DOC]) are changing throughout the northern hemisphere due to changes in climate, land use and acid deposition. However, the relative importance of these drivers is unclear. Here, we use the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon (INCA-C) to simulate long-term (1996-2008) streamwater [DOC] at the four Swedish integrated monitoring (IM) sites. These are unmanaged headwater catchments with old-growth forests and no major changes in land use. Daily, seasonal and long-term variations in streamwater [DOC] driven by runoff, seasonal temperature and atmospheric sulfate (SO₄(2-)) deposition were observed at all sites. Using INCA-C, it was possible to reproduce observed patterns of variability in streamwater [DOC] at the four IM sites. Runoff was found to be the main short-term control on [DOC]. Seasonal patterns in [DOC] were controlled primarily by soil temperature. Measured SO₄(2-) deposition explained some of the long-term [DOC] variability at all sites.

Stream bed temperature profiles as indicators of percolation characteristics beneath arroyos in the middle Rio Grande Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Thomas, C.L.

1997-01-01

Stream bed temperature profiles were monitored continuously during water year 1990 and 1991 (WY90 and 91) in two New Mexico arroyos, similar in their meteorological features and dissimilar in their hydrological features. Stream bed temperature profiles between depths of 30 and 300 cm were examined to determine whether temporal changes in temperature profiles represent accurate indicators of the timing, depth and duration of percolation in each stream bed. These results were compared with stream flow, air temperature, and precipitation records for WY90 and 91, to evaluate the effect of changing surface conditions on temperature profiles. Temperature profiles indicate a persistently high thermal gradient with depth beneath Grantline Arroyo, except during a semi-annual thermal reversal in spring and autumn. This typifies the thermal response of dry sediments with low thermal conductivities. High thermal gradients were disrupted only during infrequent stream flows, followed by rapid re-establishment of high gradients. The stream bed temperature at 300 cm was unresponsive to individual precipitation or stream flow during WY90 and 91. This thermal pattern provides strong evidence that most seepage into Grantline Arroyo failed to percolate at a sufficient rate to reach 300 cm before being returned to the atmosphere. A distinctly different thermal pattern was recorded beneath Tijeras Arroyo. Low thermal gradients between 30 and 300 cm and large diurnal variations in temperature, suggest that stream flow created continuous, advection-dominated heat transport for over 300 days, annually. Beneath Tijeras Arroyo, low thermal gradients were interrupted only briefly during periodic, dry summer conditions. Comparisons of stream flow records for WY90 and 91 with stream bed temperature profiles indicate that independent analysis of thermal patterns provides accurate estimates of the timing, depth and duration of percolation beneath both arroyos. Stream flow loss estimates indicate that seepage rates were 15 times greater for Tijeras Arroyo than for Grantline Arroyo, which supports qualitative conclusions derived from analysis of stream bed temperature responses to surface conditions. ?? 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

Policy and strategy considerations for assisted migration on USDA Forest Service lands

Treesearch

Randy Johnson; Sandy Boyce; Leslie Brandt; Vicky Erickson; Louis Iverson; Greg Kujawa; Borys Tkacz

2013-01-01

Due to increased temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns associated with climate change, bioclimatic zones that provide habitat for many species are expected to expand, contract, disappear, shift poleward, or move towards higher elevations (WGA 2008). Species will respond to changing climate and disturbance regimes individually, with some species moving...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Gulf Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2010-01-01

Predicted climate changes in the Gulf Coast bioregion include increased air and sea surface temperatures, altered fire regimes and rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased hurricane intensity, and potential destruction of coastal wetlands and the species that reside within them. Prolonged drought conditions, storm...

Seasonally contrasting responses of evapotranspiration to warming and elevated CO2 in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is expected to alter seasonal patterns and rates of evapotranspiration (ET) in dry regions. While climate change will involve elevated CO2 and increased temperatures, independently these factors may have different impacts on ET due to their opposing effects on transpiration. We...

Promoting Sustainable Economic Growth in Mexico (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Butheau, M.; Sandor, D.

2013-11-01

Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America, with rapid growth occurring in the industrial and services sectors. A forward-thinking country on climate change, the nation recognizes that the threat of higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent weather-related disasters could pose a substantial risk to its expanding economy.

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-01-01

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-09-23

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

The effect of aerosols on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica M. L.

2010-05-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere because of their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Since the beginning of the industrialisation a large increase has been seen mainly in the concentrations of sulphate and black carbon as a result of combustion of fossil fuel and biomass burning. Aerosol particles have a relatively short residence time in the atmosphere why the aerosol concentration shows a large variation spatially as well as in time where high concentrations are found close to emission sources. This leads to a highly varying radiative forcing pattern which modifies temperature gradients which in turn can alter the pressure distribution and lead to changes in the circulation in the atmosphere. In this study, the effect on the wintertime planetary scale waves on the northern hemisphere is specifically considered together with the regional climate impact due to changes in the stationary waves. To investigate the effect of aerosols on the circulation a global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is used (EC-Earth). The aerosol description in EC-Earth consists of prescribed monthly mean mass concentration fields of five different types of aerosols: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct radiative effect is considered and the different aerosol types are treated as external mixtures. Changes in the stationary wave pattern are determined by comparing model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Since the planetary scale waves largely influence the storm tracks and are an important part of the meridional heat transport, changes in the wave pattern may have substantial impact on the climate globally and locally. By looking at changes in the model simulations globally it can be found that the aerosol radiative forcing has the potential to change the stationary wave pattern. Furthermore, it shows that regional changes in the climate occur also where the radiative forcing from aerosol particles is not particularly strong, which would indicate that the large scale dynamical response to aerosol forcing can induce changes in temperature, precipitation and wind patterns outside the region where the forcing is initially located.

Sensitivity to low-temperature events: Implications for CO2 dynamics in subtropical coastal ecosystems

Treesearch

Sparkle L. Malone; Jordan Barr; Jose D. Fuentes; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christina L. Staudhammer; Evelyn E. Gaiser; Gregory Starr

2016-01-01

We analyzed the ecosystem effects of low-temperature events (<5 °C) over 4 years (2009-2012) in subtropical short and long hydroperiod freshwater marsh and mangrove forests within Everglades National Park. To evaluate changes in ecosystem productivity, we measured temporal patterns of CO2 and the normalized difference vegetation index over the study period. Both...

Spatial and temporal variation of water temperature regimes on the Snoqualmie River network

Treesearch

Ashley E. Steel; Colin Sowder; Erin E. Peterson

2016-01-01

Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense...

Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.

PubMed

Funari, Enzo; Manganelli, Maura; Sinisi, Luciana

2012-01-01

Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

Dimorphic DNA methylation during temperature-dependent sex determination in the sea turtle Lepidochelys olivacea.

PubMed

Venegas, Daniela; Marmolejo-Valencia, Alejandro; Valdes-Quezada, Christian; Govenzensky, Tzipe; Recillas-Targa, Félix; Merchant-Larios, Horacio

2016-09-15

Sex determination in vertebrates depends on the expression of a conserved network of genes. Sea turtles such as Lepidochelys olivacea have temperature-dependent sex determination. The present work analyses some of the epigenetic processes involved in this. We describe sexual dimorphism in global DNA methylation patterns between ovaries and testes of L. olivacea and show that the differences may arise from a combination of DNA methylation and demethylation events that occur during sex determination. Irrespective of incubation temperature, 5-hydroxymethylcytosine was abundant in the bipotential gonad; however, following sex determination, this modification was no longer found in pre-Sertoli cells in the testes. These changes correlate with the establishment of the sexually dimorphic DNA methylation patterns, down regulation of Sox9 gene expression in ovaries and irreversible gonadal commitment towards a male or female differentiation pathway. Thus, DNA methylation changes may be necessary for the stabilization of the gene expression networks that drive the differentiation of the bipotential gonad to form either an ovary or a testis in L. olivacea and probably among other species that manifest temperature-dependent sex determination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic and Functional Structure of Wintering Waterbird Communities Associated with Ecological Differences.

PubMed

Che, Xianli; Zhang, Min; Zhao, Yanyan; Zhang, Qiang; Quan, Qing; Møller, Anders; Zou, Fasheng

2018-01-19

Ecological differences may be related to community component divisions between Oriental (west) and Sino-Japanese (east) realms, and such differences may result in weak geographical breaks in migratory species that are highly mobile. Here, we conducted comparative phylogenetic and functional structure analyses of wintering waterbird communities in southern China across two realms and subsequently examined possible climate drivers of the observed patterns. An analysis based on such highly migratory species is particularly telling because migration is bound to reduce or completely eliminate any divergence between communities. Phylogenetic and functional structure of eastern communities showed over-dispersion while western communities were clustered. Basal phylogenetic and functional turnover of western communities was significant lower than that of eastern communities. The break between eastern and western communities was masked by these two realms. Geographic patterns were related to mean temperature changes and temperature fluctuations, suggesting that temperature may filter waterbird lineages and traits, thus underlying geographical community divisions. These results suggest phylogenetic and functional divisions in southern China, coinciding with biogeography. This study shows that temperature fluctuations constitute an essential mechanism shaping geographical divisions that have largely gone undetected previously, even under climate change.

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Climatic variability during the last deglaciation: A stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Mawmluh cave, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, C.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Routh, J.; Fietz, S.; Mangini, A.; Ghosh, P.; Lone, M. A.; Rangarajan, R.; Eliasson, J.

2016-12-01

The Mawmluh cave in northeastern India, is affected by global climate patterns displaying glacial-interglacial patterns and also the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation from the ISM plays a vital role for the local community and thus, understanding the driving forces of ISM fluctuations became a recent focus of a number of paleoclimate studies. Here, we used the stalagmite KM-1 from Mawmluh cave to reconstruct climate variability during the last glacial-interglacial transition from 22 to 6 ka. For the first time, molecular proxy data (TEX86 and MBT/CBT derived from isoprenoid and branched GDGTs respectively) were coupled to stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) and compared to other speleothem records in Asia. ISM system abruptly transition between a suppressed and active state which is associated to changes in vegetation and thus shifts in δ13C. The abrupt δ13C shift observed in our record indicate changes to wetter climate in the Holocene, which are coupled to increase in abundance of GDGTs indicating higher production and/or transfer to KM-1. The TEX86-derived temperature roughly follows the glaciation-deglaciation cycle and Holocene changes. The TEX86 results show good correspondence with the δ18O records for temperature highlighting the potential for the use of molecular proxy in speleothem based climate reconstructions. While the MBT/CBT proxy is also defined as a temperature proxy it is not coupled with δ18O patterns, and thus shows no clear temperature signal. A decoupling between MBT/CBT from soils and the connected speleothems as well as a precipitation-moisture effect on this proxy have been previously reported. In this particular case the MBT/CBT seems to be better related to precipitation-monsoon changes, and thus warrant further exploration as a complementary proxy to isotope records for monsoon strength.

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J. E.

1984-01-01

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal.

PubMed

Lacroix, Geneviève; Barbut, Léo; Volckaert, Filip A M

2018-01-01

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (-9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Photoinduced Domain Pattern Transformation in Ferroelectric-Dielectric Superlattices

DOE PAGES

Ahn, Youngjun; Park, Joonkyu; Pateras, Anastasios; ...

2017-07-31

The nanodomain pattern in ferroelectric/dielectric superlattices transforms to a uniform polarization state under above-bandgap optical excitation. X-ray scattering reveals a disappearance of domain diffuse scattering and an expansion of the lattice. Furthermore, the reappearance of the domain pattern occurs over a period of seconds at room temperature, suggesting a transformation mechanism in which charge carriers in long-lived trap states screen the depolarization field. A Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire model predicts changes in lattice parameter and a critical carrier concentration for the transformation.

Photoinduced Domain Pattern Transformation in Ferroelectric-Dielectric Superlattices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Youngjun; Park, Joonkyu; Pateras, Anastasios

2017-07-01

The nanodomain pattern in ferroelectric/dielectric superlattices transforms to a uniform polarization state under above-bandgap optical excitation. X-ray scattering reveals a disappearance of domain diffuse scattering and an expansion of the lattice. The reappearance of the domain pattern occurs over a period of seconds at room temperature, suggesting a transformation mechanism in which charge carriers in long-lived trap states screen the depolarization field. A Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire model predicts changes in lattice parameter and a critical carrier concentration for the transformation.

Climatic change by cloudiness linked to the spatial variability of sea surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.

1975-01-01

An active role in modifying the earth's climate is suggested for low cloudiness over the circumarctic oceans. Such cloudiness, linked to the spatial differences in ocean surface temperatures, was studied. The temporal variations from year to year of ocean temperature patterns can be pronounced and therefore, the low cloudiness over this region should also show strong temporal variations, affecting the albedo of the earth and therefore the climate. Photographs are included.

Temperature variation, bacterial diversity and fungal infection dynamics in the amphibian skin.

PubMed

Longo, Ana V; Zamudio, Kelly R

2017-09-01

Host-associated bacterial communities on the skin act as the first line of defence against invading pathogens. Yet, for most natural systems, we lack a clear understanding of how temperature variability affects structure and composition of skin bacterial communities and, in turn, promotes or limits the colonization of opportunistic pathogens. Here, we examine how natural temperature fluctuations might be related to changes in skin bacterial diversity over time in three amphibian populations infected by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Our focal host species (Eleutherodactylus coqui) is a direct-developing frog that has suffered declines at some populations in the last 20 years, while others have not experienced any changes. We quantified skin bacterial alpha- and beta-diversity at four sampling time points, a period encompassing two seasons and ample variation in natural infections and environmental conditions. Despite the different patterns of infection across populations, we detected an overall increase in bacterial diversity through time, characterized by the replacement of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Increased frog body temperatures possibly allowed the colonization of bacteria as well as the recruitment of a subset of indicator OTUs, which could have promoted the observed changes in diversity patterns. Our results suggest that natural environmental fluctuations might be involved in creating opportunities for bacterial replacement, potentially attenuating pathogen transmission and thus contributing to host persistence in E. coqui populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of fire on greenhouse gas fluxes from mosses and lichen patches in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta, AK.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro-Perez, E.; Natali, S.; Schade, J. D.; Holmes, R. M.; Mann, P. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change has altered patterns of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gases and increased fire frequencies, especially in the Artic. Until recently, the Arctic has been a carbon (C) sink, but have begun releasing C in recent years, likely in response to warming temperatures, permafrost thaw and resulting changes in microbial processes. In addition, increases in fire frequency and intensity are changing vegetation patterns, particularly the relative importance of mosses and lichens. These changes alter soil temperatures, nutrient availability, and moisture, consequently affecting microbial processes and the release of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as N2O, CO2 and CH4. The objective of this research was to understand how recent fires in the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta in southwest Alaska are affecting the emission of GHGs from peat plateau soils. We hypothesized that the presence of mosses and lichen would change soil moisture and temperature, leading to changes in GHG production after fire. We also hypothesized that fire would increase soil nutrient availability, which would increase microbial process rates and GHG emissions. To test these hypotheses, we measured N2O, CH4 and CO2 fluxes from moss and lichen patches in three burned and unburned areas and collected soil cores for analyses of gravimetric soil moisture, carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and N mineralization rates. Soil temperatures were measured in the field with a thermocouple. Results demonstrated low but measurable CH4 emissions from all patches, suggesting peat plateaus in the YK Delta may be CH4 sources. In addition, CO2 emissions were higher in soils under lichen patches in burned areas than unburned controls. Finally, results suggest that burned areas have higher concentrations of extractable NH4 and NO3, and that increased N may be increasing soil respiration.

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests.

PubMed

Haynes, Kyle J; Allstadt, Andrew J; Klimetzek, Dietrich

2014-06-01

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insect species, we examined a 212-year record (1800-2011) of outbreaks of five pine-defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate-driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high-frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high-frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine-defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of climate change for the reproductive capacity and survival of New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae).

PubMed

Strüssmann, C A; Conover, D O; Somoza, G M; Miranda, L A

2010-11-01

The New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae) are found in marine, estuarine and inland waters of North, Central and South America, where they are ecologically important as forage fishes and sometimes economically important for commercial and recreational fisheries. This report reviews the knowledge of the reproductive attributes of temperate and subtropical atherinopsids in relation to temperature and discusses the potential effects of climate change on their reproduction and adaptive responses. Their reproductive cycles are primarily entrained by photoperiod with high temperature acting as a limiting factor. They are generally multiple spawners which release successive batches of eggs in spring, but some species can spawn also in autumn and even summer when temperatures do not increase excessively. The decoupling of temperature patterns and photoperiod with further global warming and associated asymmetric thermal fluctuations could lead to spawning at times or temperatures that are unsuitable for larval development and growth. Many members of this family show temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), where the phenotypic sex of an individual is determined partly or wholly by the temperature experienced during gonadal sex differentiation, and high-temperature induced germ cell degeneration and decreased fertility. The predicted short-term reproductive responses of atherinopsids to climate change therefore include acceleration, shortening or overall disruption of spawning activity, and also more subtle, but nonetheless equally population-threatening, dysfunctions such as highly skewed sex ratios and partial or total loss of fertility. In the case of species with TSD, asymmetric thermal fluctuations could also cause larvae to encounter temperatures lower than normal during early development and be feminized. Such dysfunctions have been documented already in natural populations but are confined so far to landlocked, inland water habitats, perhaps because they impose more severe thermal fluctuations and limitations to migration and dispersal. The severity and recurrence of these dysfunctions with further climate change will depend both on the magnitude, speed and pattern of change and on how much (or how fast) physiological and behavioural traits can evolve to match the new conditions imposed by the climate, which is largely unknown. In this regard, compelling evidence is shown that numerous traits, including the sex determination system, are capable of rapid evolution and could mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases on population viability in atherinopsids. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Diurnal Change of Soil Carbon Flux of Binhai New District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T. F.; Mao, T. Y.; Ye, W.

2018-05-01

In order to investigate the factors influencing diurnal change of soil carbon flux of Binhai New District. Field observation experiments were carried out by using LC pro-SD photosynthetic apparatus. The diurnal changes of soil carbon flux and its environmental factors such as atmosphere temperature and soil temperature were analysed. The results indicated that soil carbon flux appeared single diurnal pattern. The diurnal average of soil carbon flux ranked from 0.2761 to 2.3367μmo1/m2/s. Soil carbon flux varied significantly among different land use regimes(P<0.001). Significant relationships were found between soil respiration rate and atmosphere temperature, which could he best described by exponential equations (P<0.05). The Q10 value was based on the exponential correlations. Its value of Tian Keyuan, ECO-city, Dagu-Outlet and Yongding-River was 8.331, 6.049, 2.651 and 1.391, respectively. There were quadratic correlations between soil carbon flux and soil temperature (10cm). And soil temperature could account for more than 32.27% of the soil carbon flux changes (P<0.05, R2=0.3227-0.7465).

Typhoon Changes in Northwestern Pacific Region and Its Relationship to Hydrologic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. S.; Lee, J. H.

2017-12-01

Changes in typhoon intensity are sensitively related to the thermodynamic responses of the atmosphere and ocean to warmer temperature and increased CO2 concentrations in a changing climate. Atmospheric conditions in warmer climates are likely to promote the strengthening of typhoon activity. The pattern of typhoons in the North Pacific is constantly changing due to rising sea level, the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, and changes in weather and climate patterns due to global warming. In particular, as typhoon genesis positions are shifted to the north compared to past typhoon, the East Asia region is exposed to possible typhoon landings and potential damage. Efforts to integrate typhoon-related information into management and planning have focused on recovery in the wake of damaging events—a reactive, hazard perspective; however, there have been insufficient efforts towards regulation and water management and for multilateral assessments of environmental impacts. Therefore, climate change adaptation and countermeasures based on a variety of hydrological changes and a clear understanding of sea surface temperature changes are needed to analyze the changes in ecological systems under the influence of typhoons at the regional and local scale. In this study, we focus on typhoon - sensitive watersheds and quantify the effects of typhoons to analyze various hydrological changes due to typhoons. The results of this study provide useful information for adapting to climate change and preparing measures.

Habitat use by a Midwestern U.S.A. riverine fish assemblage: effects of season, water temperature and river discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillette, D.P.; Tiemann, J.S.; Edds, D.R.; Wildhaber, M.L.

2006-01-01

The hypothesis that temperate stream fishes alter habitat use in response to changing water temperature and stream discharge was evaluated over a 1 year period in the Neosho River, Kansas, U.S.A. at two spatial scales. Winter patterns differed from those of all other seasons, with shallower water used less frequently, and low-flow habitat more frequently, than at other times. Non-random habitat use was more frequent at the point scale (4.5 m2) than at the larger reach scale (20-40 m), although patterns at both scales were similar. Relative to available habitats, assemblages used shallower, swifter-flowing water as temperature increased, and shallower, slower-flowing water as river discharge increased. River discharge had a stronger effect on assemblage habitat use than water temperature. Proportion of juveniles in the assemblage did not have a significant effect. This study suggests that many riverine fishes shift habitats in response to changing environmental conditions, and supports, at the assemblage level, the paradigm of lotic fishes switching from shallower, high-velocity habitats in summer to deeper, low-velocity habitats in winter, and of using shallower, low-velocity habitats during periods of high discharge. Results also indicate that different species within temperate river fish assemblages show similar habitat use patterns at multiple scales in response to environmental gradients, but that non-random use of available habitats is more frequent at small scales. ?? 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Novel fabrication of flexible graphene-based chemical sensors with heaters using soft lithographic patterning method.

PubMed

Jung, Min Wook; Myung, Sung; Song, Wooseok; Kang, Min-A; Kim, Sung Ho; Yang, Cheol-Soo; Lee, Sun Sook; Lim, Jongsun; Park, Chong-Yun; Lee, Jeong-O; An, Ki-Seok

2014-08-27

We have fabricated graphene-based chemical sensors with flexible heaters for the highly sensitive detection of specific gases. We believe that increasing the temperature of the graphene surface significantly enhanced the electrical signal change of the graphene-based channel, and reduced the recovery time needed to obtain a normal state of equilibrium. In addition, a simple and efficient soft lithographic patterning process was developed via surface energy modification for advanced, graphene-based flexible devices, such as gas sensors. As a proof of concept, we demonstrated the high sensitivity of NO2 gas sensors based on graphene nanosheets. These devices were fabricated using a simple soft-lithographic patterning method, where flexible graphene heaters adjacent to the channel of sensing graphene were utilized to control graphene temperature.

Estimation of Land Surface Temperature for the Quantitative Analysis of Land Cover of Lower Areas of Sindh to Assess the Impacts of Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaisar, Maha

2016-07-01

Due to the present land use practices and climate variability, drastic shifts in regional climate and land covers are easily seen and their future reduction and gain are too well predicted. Therefore, there is an increasing need for data on land-cover changes at narrow and broad spatial scales. In this study, a remote sensing-based technique for land-cover-change analysis is applied to the lower Sindh areas for the last decade. Landsat satellite products were analyzed on an alternate yearly basis, from 1990 to 2016. Then Land-cover-change magnitudes were measured and mapped for alternate years. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is one of the critical elements in the natural phenomena of surface energy and water balance at local and global extent. However, LST was computed by using Landsat thermal bands via brightness temperature and a vegetation index. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was interpreted and maps were achieved. LST reflected NDVI patterns with complexity of vegetation patterns. Along with this, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) was done for classifying 5 major classes of water, vegetation, urban, marshy lands and barren lands with significant map layouts. Pakistan Meteorological Department provided the climate data in which rainfall, temperature and air temperature are included. Once the LST and OBIA are performed, overlay analysis was done to correlate the results of LST with OBIA and LST with meteorological data to ascertain the changes in land covers due to increasing centigrade of LST. However, satellite derived LST was also correlated with climate data for environmental analysis and to estimate Land Surface Temperature for assessing the inverse impacts of climate variability. This study's results demonstrate the land-cover changes in Lower Areas of Sindh including the Indus Delta mostly involve variations in land-cover conditions due to inter-annual climatic variability and temporary shifts in seasonality. However it is too concluded that transitory alteration of the biophysical characteristics of the surface driven by variations in rainfall is the prevailing progression. Moreover, future work will focus on finer-scale analysis and validations of patterns of changes due to rapid urbanization and population explosion in poverty stricken areas of Sindh which are posing an adverse impact on the land utilization and in turn increasing the land surface temperature and ultimately more stress on the low lying areas of Sindh i.e. Indus Delta will be losing its productivity and capacity to bear biodiversity whether the fauna or flora. Hence, this regional scale problem will become a global concern. Therefore, it is needed to stop the menace in its starting phase to mitigate the problem and to bring minds on this horrendous situation.

Will temperature effects or phenotypic plasticity determine the thermal response of a heterothermic tropical bat to climate change?

PubMed

Stawski, Clare; Geiser, Fritz

2012-01-01

The proportion of organisms exposed to warm conditions is predicted to increase during global warming. To better understand how bats might respond to climate change, we aimed to obtain the first data on how use of torpor, a crucial survival strategy of small bats, is affected by temperature in the tropics. Over two mild winters, tropical free-ranging bats (Nyctophilus bifax, 10 g, n = 13) used torpor on 95% of study days and were torpid for 33.5±18.8% of 113 days measured. Torpor duration was temperature-dependent and an increase in ambient temperature by the predicted 2°C for the 21(st) century would decrease the time in torpor to 21.8%. However, comparisons among Nyctophilus populations show that regional phenotypic plasticity attenuates temperature effects on torpor patterns. Our data suggest that heterothermy is important for energy budgeting of bats even under warm conditions and that flexible torpor use will enhance bats' chance of survival during climate change.

Assessment of climate change effects on mountain ecosystems through a cross-site analysis in the Alps and Apennines.

PubMed

Rogora, M; Frate, L; Carranza, M L; Freppaz, M; Stanisci, A; Bertani, I; Bottarin, R; Brambilla, A; Canullo, R; Carbognani, M; Cerrato, C; Chelli, S; Cremonese, E; Cutini, M; Di Musciano, M; Erschbamer, B; Godone, D; Iocchi, M; Isabellon, M; Magnani, A; Mazzola, L; Morra di Cella, U; Pauli, H; Petey, M; Petriccione, B; Porro, F; Psenner, R; Rossetti, G; Scotti, A; Sommaruga, R; Tappeiner, U; Theurillat, J-P; Tomaselli, M; Viglietti, D; Viterbi, R; Vittoz, P; Winkler, M; Matteucci, G

2018-05-15

Mountain ecosystems are sensitive and reliable indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers from a broad ecological perspective. Mountain research sites within the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) network are representative of various types of ecosystems and span a wide bioclimatic and elevational range. Here, we present a synthesis and a review of the main results from ecological studies in mountain ecosystems at 20 LTER sites in Italy, Switzerland and Austria covering in most cases more than two decades of observations. We analyzed a set of key climate parameters, such as temperature and snow cover duration, in relation to vascular plant species composition, plant traits, abundance patterns, pedoclimate, nutrient dynamics in soils and water, phenology and composition of freshwater biota. The overall results highlight the rapid response of mountain ecosystems to climate change, with site-specific characteristics and rates. As temperatures increased, vegetation cover in alpine and subalpine summits increased as well. Years with limited snow cover duration caused an increase in soil temperature and microbial biomass during the growing season. Effects on freshwater ecosystems were also observed, in terms of increases in solutes, decreases in nitrates and changes in plankton phenology and benthos communities. This work highlights the importance of comparing and integrating long-term ecological data collected in different ecosystems for a more comprehensive overview of the ecological effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for (i) adopting co-located monitoring site networks to improve our ability to obtain sound results from cross-site analysis, (ii) carrying out further studies, in particular short-term analyses with fine spatial and temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of responses to extreme events, and (iii) increasing comparability and standardizing protocols across networks to distinguish local patterns from global patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young-of-the-year abundance and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanno, Yoichiro; Pregler, Kasey C.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Hocking, Daniel; Wofford, John E.B.

2015-01-01

Our results indicate that YOY abundance is a key driver of brook trout population dynamics that is mediated by seasonal weather patterns. A reliable assessment of climate change impacts on brook trout needs to account for how alternations in seasonal weather patterns impact YOY abundance and how such relationships may differ across the range of brook trout distribution.

Particle Size, Composition, and Ocean Temperature Govern the Global Distribution of Particle Transfer Efficiency to the Mesopelagic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cram, J. A.; Weber, T. S.; Leung, S.; Deutsch, C. A.

2016-02-01

New analyses of geochemical tracer data detect significant differences between ocean basins in the depth scale of particle remineralization, with deepest in high latitudes, shallowest in the subtropical gyres, and intermediate in the tropics. We evaluate the possible causes of this pattern using a mechanistic model of particle dynamics that includes microbial colonization, detachment, and degradation of sinking particles. The model represents the size structure of particles, the effects of mineral ballast (diagnosed from alkalinity and silicate distributions) and seawater temperature (which influences particle velocity and microbial metabolic rates). We find that diagnosed spatial patterns in particle flux profiles can be best reproduced through a combination of surface particle size distribution and temperature, which both favor low transfer efficiency in subtropical gyres, and high transfer efficiency in higher latitudes and intermediate tropical values. Particle mineral content is shown to significantly modulate these patterns, albeit with a high remaining uncertainty. Implications of these mechanisms for changes in biological carbon storage in a warmer ocean are examined.

Investigation of electron beam lithography effects on metal-insulator transition behavior of vanadium dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuce, H.; Alaboz, H.; Demirhan, Y.; Ozdemir, M.; Ozyuzer, L.; Aygun, G.

2017-11-01

Vanadium dioxide (VO2) shows metal-insulator phase transition at nearly 68 °C. This metal-insulator transition (MIT) in VO2 leads to a significant change in near-infrared transmittance and an abrupt change in the resistivity of VO2. Due to these characteristics, VO2 plays an important role on optic and electronic devices, such as thermochromic windows, meta-materials with tunable frequency, uncooled bolometers and switching devices. In this work, VO2 thin films were fabricated by reactive direct current magnetron sputtering in O2/Ar atmosphere on sapphire substrates without any further post annealing processes. The effect of sputtering parameters on optical characteristics and structural properties of grown thin films was investigated by SEM, XRD, Raman and UV/VIS spectrophotometer measurements. Patterning process of VO2 thin films was realized by e-beam lithography technique to monitor the temperature dependent electrical characterization. Electrical properties of VO2 samples were characterized using microprobe station in a vacuum system. MIT with hysteresis behavior was observed for the unpatterned square samples at around 68 °C. By four orders of magnitude of resistivity change was measured for the deposited VO2 thin films at transition temperature. After e-beam lithography process, substantial results in patterned VO2 thin films were observed. In this stage, for patterned VO2 thin films as stripes, the change in resistivity of VO2 was reduced by a factor of 10. As a consequence of electrical resistivity measurements, MIT temperature was shifted from 68 °C to 50 °C. The influence of e-beam process on the properties of VO2 thin films and the mechanism of the effects are discussed. The presented results contribute to the achievement of VO2 based thermochromic windows and bolometer applications.

Artificial Neural Network with Regular Graph for Maximum Air Temperature Forecasting:. the Effect of Decrease in Nodes Degree on Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaderi, A. H.; Darooneh, A. H.

The behavior of nonlinear systems can be analyzed by artificial neural networks. Air temperature change is one example of the nonlinear systems. In this work, a new neural network method is proposed for forecasting maximum air temperature in two cities. In this method, the regular graph concept is used to construct some partially connected neural networks that have regular structures. The learning results of fully connected ANN and networks with proposed method are compared. In some case, the proposed method has the better result than conventional ANN. After specifying the best network, the effect of input pattern numbers on the prediction is studied and the results show that the increase of input patterns has a direct effect on the prediction accuracy.

Climate variations in northern North America (6000 BP to present) reconstructed from pollen and tree-ring data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diaz, H.F.; Andrews, J.T.; Short, S.K.

The characteristic anomaly patterns of modern surface temperature and precipitation are compared to tree-ring indices (0-300 yr) and fossil pollen (0-6000 yr) variations in northern North America. The data base consists of 245 climate stations, 55 tree-ring chronologies, 153 modern pollen collections, and 39 fossil pollen sites. A few areas exhibit relatively high climatic sensitivity, displaying generally consistent patterns during alternate warm and cold periods, regardless of time scales. The surface changes are related to the redistribution (i.e., changes in the mean position and strength) of the planetary-scale waves and to north-south shifts in the mean boundary of the Arcticmore » Front. The zone where the largest changes occur is typically located along the mean present-day boundary between Arctic and Pacific airstreams. Establishing plausible relationships between vegetation responses and concomitant changes in atmospheric circulation patterns increases our confidence that the paleoclimatic signals are indeed related to large-scale circulation changes.« less

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Correlations between the circadian patterns of body temperature, metabolism and breathing in rats.

PubMed

Mortola, Jacopo P

2007-02-15

It had been demonstrated previously that the circadian patterns of activity and state of arousal are not essential for the manifestation of the daily patterns of pulmonary ventilation (V(E)), tidal volume (V(T)) and breathing frequency (f). In this study we investigated the extent of the linkage between the circadian pattern of breathing and those of body temperature (T(b)) and metabolic rate (oxygen consumption, V(O2), and carbon dioxide production, V(CO2)). Rats were instrumented for measurements of T(b) (by telemetry), and placed in a chamber for continuous 13-day period of measurement of breathing (by a modification of the barometric methodology), and of V(O2) and V(CO2) (by an open flow method). After the first 4 days in control conditions under a 12 h light:12 h dark (L:D) cycle, a perturbation was introduced on day 4, with an L-phase prolongation of 12 h, and on day 9, with an D-phase prolongation of 12 h. During the control days 1-4, all variables had daily oscillations (higher values in D), in phase with each other. During the perturbations (days 4-13), changes in T(b), V(O2) and V(CO2), averaged over the whole period, correlated significantly better with f than with V(T). Day-by-day X-Y loops indicated that V (E), V(T) and f could lead significantly the changes of T(b), V(O2) and V(CO2), and that these relations changed throughout the perturbation period. In addition, f and V(T) did not change necessarily in phase with each other. It is concluded that neither the oscillation in T(b) nor that in metabolism can be considered the direct cause of the daily oscillation of breathing. Presumably, the circadian pattern of breathing reflects the interplay of the daily patterns of many variables, none acting as the primary guide of the breathing daily rhythm.

Impact of natural variability on the perception of climate change for the upcoming decades: Analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rondeau-Genesse, G.; Braun, M.; Chaumont, D.

2017-12-01

The pace of climate change can have a direct impact on the efforts required to adapt. However, for relatively short time scales, this pace can be masked by natural variability (NV). In some cases, this variability might cause, for a few decades, climate change to exceed what would be expected from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alone or, to the contrary, it might cause slowdowns or even hiatuses. This phenomenon is difficult to explore using ensembles such as CMIP5, which are composed of multiple climatological models and thus combine both NV and inter-model differences. This study analyses CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, two state-of-the-art large ensembles (LE) comprised of multiple realizations from a single climatological model and a single GHG emission scenario. We explore the relationship between NV and climate change over the next few decades in Canada and the United States. Temperature indices, namely the mean annual temperature and the 3-day maximum and minimum temperatures are assessed. Results indicate that under the RCP8.5, temperatures within most of the individual large ensemble members will increase in a roughly linear manner between 2021 and 2060. Nevertheless, in some regions such as parts of Canada and Alaska, there is a 20 to 35% probability that the temperature increase will slow down between 2021 and 2040. Such a slowdown in warming temperatures would provide some leeway for adaptation projects, but this phenomenon is caused by NV alone and, as such, is only temporary. Indeed, members of the large ensembles where a slowdown of warming is found during the 2021-2040 period are two to five times more likely to experience a period of very fast warming in the following decades. The opposite scenario, where the changes expected by 2050 would occur early because of NV, remains fairly uncommon for the mean annual temperature. For the extreme temperature indices however, this early warming still occurs in 5 to 20% of the large ensemble members. As such, while our results indicate that the dominant pattern in Canada and the United States is a fairly linear warming, the chances for other patterns is non negligible for the upcoming decades. This reinforces the need for constant, uninterrupted efforts towards climate change adaptation.

Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors

PubMed Central

Helmuth, Brian; Choi, Francis; Matzelle, Allison; Torossian, Jessica L.; Morello, Scott L.; Mislan, K.A.S.; Yamane, Lauren; Strickland, Denise; Szathmary, P. Lauren; Gilman, Sarah E.; Tockstein, Alyson; Hilbish, Thomas J.; Burrows, Michael T.; Power, Anne Marie; Gosling, Elizabeth; Mieszkowska, Nova; Harley, Christopher D.G.; Nishizaki, Michael; Carrington, Emily; Menge, Bruce; Petes, Laura; Foley, Melissa M.; Johnson, Angela; Poole, Megan; Noble, Mae M.; Richmond, Erin L.; Robart, Matt; Robinson, Jonathan; Sapp, Jerod; Sones, Jackie; Broitman, Bernardo R.; Denny, Mark W.; Mach, Katharine J.; Miller, Luke P.; O’Donnell, Michael; Ross, Philip; Hofmann, Gretchen E.; Zippay, Mackenzie; Blanchette, Carol; Macfarlan, J.A.; Carpizo-Ituarte, Eugenio; Ruttenberg, Benjamin; Peña Mejía, Carlos E.; McQuaid, Christopher D.; Lathlean, Justin; Monaco, Cristián J.; Nicastro, Katy R.; Zardi, Gerardo

2016-01-01

At a proximal level, the physiological impacts of global climate change on ectothermic organisms are manifest as changes in body temperatures. Especially for plants and animals exposed to direct solar radiation, body temperatures can be substantially different from air temperatures. We deployed biomimetic sensors that approximate the thermal characteristics of intertidal mussels at 71 sites worldwide, from 1998-present. Loggers recorded temperatures at 10–30 min intervals nearly continuously at multiple intertidal elevations. Comparisons against direct measurements of mussel tissue temperature indicated errors of ~2.0–2.5 °C, during daily fluctuations that often exceeded 15°–20 °C. Geographic patterns in thermal stress based on biomimetic logger measurements were generally far more complex than anticipated based only on ‘habitat-level’ measurements of air or sea surface temperature. This unique data set provides an opportunity to link physiological measurements with spatially- and temporally-explicit field observations of body temperature. PMID:27727238

Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmuth, Brian; Choi, Francis; Matzelle, Allison; Torossian, Jessica L.; Morello, Scott L.; Mislan, K. A. S.; Yamane, Lauren; Strickland, Denise; Szathmary, P. Lauren; Gilman, Sarah E.; Tockstein, Alyson; Hilbish, Thomas J.; Burrows, Michael T.; Power, Anne Marie; Gosling, Elizabeth; Mieszkowska, Nova; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Nishizaki, Michael; Carrington, Emily; Menge, Bruce; Petes, Laura; Foley, Melissa M.; Johnson, Angela; Poole, Megan; Noble, Mae M.; Richmond, Erin L.; Robart, Matt; Robinson, Jonathan; Sapp, Jerod; Sones, Jackie; Broitman, Bernardo R.; Denny, Mark W.; Mach, Katharine J.; Miller, Luke P.; O'Donnell, Michael; Ross, Philip; Hofmann, Gretchen E.; Zippay, Mackenzie; Blanchette, Carol; Macfarlan, J. A.; Carpizo-Ituarte, Eugenio; Ruttenberg, Benjamin; Peña Mejía, Carlos E.; McQuaid, Christopher D.; Lathlean, Justin; Monaco, Cristián J.; Nicastro, Katy R.; Zardi, Gerardo

2016-10-01

At a proximal level, the physiological impacts of global climate change on ectothermic organisms are manifest as changes in body temperatures. Especially for plants and animals exposed to direct solar radiation, body temperatures can be substantially different from air temperatures. We deployed biomimetic sensors that approximate the thermal characteristics of intertidal mussels at 71 sites worldwide, from 1998-present. Loggers recorded temperatures at 10-30 min intervals nearly continuously at multiple intertidal elevations. Comparisons against direct measurements of mussel tissue temperature indicated errors of ~2.0-2.5 °C, during daily fluctuations that often exceeded 15°-20 °C. Geographic patterns in thermal stress based on biomimetic logger measurements were generally far more complex than anticipated based only on ‘habitat-level’ measurements of air or sea surface temperature. This unique data set provides an opportunity to link physiological measurements with spatially- and temporally-explicit field observations of body temperature.

Temperature-tunable wettability on a bioinspired structured graphene surface for fog collection and unidirectional transport.

PubMed

Song, Yun-Yun; Liu, Yan; Jiang, Hao-Bo; Li, Shu-Yi; Kaya, Cigdem; Stegmaier, Thomas; Han, Zhi-Wu; Ren, Lu-Quan

2018-02-22

We designed a type of smart bioinspired wettable surface with tip-shaped patterns by combining polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and graphene (PDMS/G). The laser etched porous graphene surface can produce an obvious wettability change between 200 °C and 0 °C due to a change in aperture size and chemical components. We demonstrate that the cooperation of the geometrical structure and the controllable wettability play an important role in water gathering, and surfaces with tip-shaped wettability patterns can quickly drive tiny water droplets toward more wettable regions, so making a great contribution to the improvement of water collection efficiency. In addition, due to the effective cooperation between super hydrophobic and hydrophilic regions of the special tip-shaped pattern, unidirectional water transport on the 200 °C heated PDMS/G surface can be realized. This study offers a novel insight into the design of temperature-tunable materials with interphase wettability that may enhance fog collection efficiency in engineering liquid harvesting equipment, and realize unidirectional liquid transport, which could potentially be applied to the realms of microfluidics, medical devices and condenser design.

Effects of rainfall patterns on toxic cyanobacterial blooms in a changing climate: between simplistic scenarios and complex dynamics.

PubMed

Reichwaldt, Elke S; Ghadouani, Anas

2012-04-01

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms represent a serious hazard to environmental and human health, and the management and restoration of affected waterbodies can be challenging. While cyanobacterial blooms are already a frequent occurrence, in the future their incidence and severity are predicted to increase due to climate change. Climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperature and changes in rainfall patterns, which will both have a significant impact on inland water resources. While many studies indicate that a higher temperature will favour cyanobacterial bloom occurrences, the impact of changed rainfall patterns is widely under-researched and therefore less understood. This review synthesizes the predicted changes in rainfall patterns and their potential impact on inland waterbodies, and identifies mechanisms that influence the occurrence and severity of toxic cyanobacterial blooms. It is predicted that there will be a higher frequency and intensity of rainfall events with longer drought periods in between. Such changes in the rainfall patterns will lead to favourable conditions for cyanobacterial growth due to a greater nutrient input into waterbodies during heavy rainfall events, combined with potentially longer periods of high evaporation and stratification. These conditions are likely to lead to an acceleration of the eutrophication process and prolonged warm periods without mixing of the water column. However, the frequent occurrence of heavy rain events can also lead to a temporary disruption of cyanobacterial blooms due to flushing and de-stratification, and large storm events have been shown to have a long-term negative effect on cyanobacterial blooms. In contrast, a higher number of small rainfall events or wet days can lead to proliferation of cyanobacteria, as they can rapidly use nutrients that are added during rainfall events, especially if stratification remains unchanged. With rainfall patterns changing, cyanobacterial toxin concentration in waterbodies is expected to increase. Firstly, this is due to accelerated eutrophication which supports higher cyanobacterial biomass. Secondly, predicted changes in rainfall patterns produce more favourable growth conditions for cyanobacteria, which is likely to increase the toxin production rate. However, the toxin concentration in inland waterbodies will also depend on the effect of rainfall events on cyanobacterial strain succession, a process that is still little understood. Low light conditions after heavy rainfall events might favour non-toxic strains, whilst inorganic nutrient input might promote the dominance of toxic strains in blooms. This review emphasizes that the impact of changes in rainfall patterns is very complex and will strongly depend on the site-specific dynamics, cyanobacterial species composition and cyanobacterial strain succession. More effort is needed to understand the relationship between rainfall patterns and cyanobacterial bloom dynamics, and in particular toxin production, to be able to assess and mediate the significant threat cyanobacterial blooms pose to our water resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental study on flame pattern formation and combustion completeness in a radial microchannel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Aiwu; Minaev, Sergey; Kumar, Sudarshan; Liu, Wei; Maruta, Kaoru

2007-12-01

Combustion behavior in a radial microchannel with a gap of 2.0 mm and a diameter of 50 mm was experimentally investigated. In order to simulate the heat recirculation, which is an essential strategy in microscale combustion devices, positive temperature gradients along the radial flow direction were given to the microchannel by an external heat source. A methane-air mixture was supplied from the center of the top plate through a 4.0 mm diameter delivery tube. A variety of flame patterns, including a stable circular flame and several unstable flame patterns termed unstable circular flame, single and double pelton-like flames, traveling flame and triple flame, were observed in the experiments. The regime diagram of all these flame patterns is presented in this paper. Some characteristics of the various flame patterns, such as the radii of stable and unstable circular flames, major combustion products and combustion efficiencies of all these flame patterns, were also investigated. Furthermore, the effect of the heat recirculation on combustion stability was studied by changing the wall temperature levels.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graceffa, R.; Burghammer, M.; Davies, R. J.

Using stroboscopic techniques, diffraction patterns of ballistic paraffin wax microdrops have been observed. The microdrops, generated by a high-temperature ink-jet system, travel through the 1 {mu}m synchrotron radiation beam with a speed of about 1.4 m/s. Diffraction patterns were recorded in flight by a charge couple device with a microchannel plate image intensifier stage, which was activated with the microdrop generation frequency of 1000 Hz during 2 {mu}s. The data show liquid microdrops with a constant temperature up to 8 mm from the ink-jet system capillary exit. The general technique could be adapted for studying fast structural processes, such asmore » protein conformational changes in aqueous microdrops.« less

Evidence of temperature-dependent effects on the estrogenic response of fish: implications with regard to climate change.

PubMed

Brian, Jayne V; Harris, Catherine A; Runnalls, Tamsin J; Fantinati, Andrea; Pojana, Giulio; Marcomini, Antonio; Booy, Petra; Lamoree, Marja; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Sumpter, John P

2008-07-01

Chemical risk assessment is fraught with difficulty due to the problem of accounting for the effects of mixtures. In addition to the uncertainty arising from chemical-to-chemical interactions, it is possible that environmental variables, such as temperature, influence the biological response to chemical challenge, acting as confounding factors in the analysis of mixture effects. Here, we investigate the effects of temperature on the response of fish to a defined mixture of estrogenic chemicals. It was anticipated that the response to the mixture may be exacerbated at higher temperatures, due to an increase in the rate of physiological processing. This is a pertinent issue in view of global climate change. Fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to the mixture in parallel exposure studies, which were carried out at different temperatures (20 and 30 degrees C). The estrogenic response was characterised using an established assay, involving the analysis of the egg yolk protein, vitellogenin (VTG). Patterns of VTG gene expression were also analysed using real-time QPCR. The results revealed that there was no effect of temperature on the magnitude of the VTG response after 2 weeks of chemical exposure. However, the analysis of mixture effects at two additional time points (24 h and 7 days) revealed that the response was induced more rapidly at the higher temperature. This trend was apparent from the analysis of effects both at the molecular and biochemical level. Whilst this indicates that climatic effects on water temperature are not a significant issue with regard to the long-term risk assessment of estrogenic chemicals, the relevance of short-term effects is, as yet, unclear. Furthermore, analysis of the patterns of VTG gene expression versus protein induction gives an insight into the physiological mechanisms responsible for temperature-dependent effects on the reproductive phenology of species such as roach. Hence, the data contribute to our understanding of the implications of global climate change for wild fish populations.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E

2017-02-01

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Modeling the effects of climate change-induced shifts in reproductive phenology on temperature-dependent traits.

PubMed

Telemeco, Rory S; Abbott, Karen C; Janzen, Fredric J

2013-05-01

By altering phenology, organisms have the potential to match life-history events with suitable environmental conditions. Because of this, phenological plasticity has been proposed as a mechanism whereby populations might buffer themselves from climate change. We examine the potential buffering power of advancing one aspect of phenology, nesting date, on sex ratio in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), a species with temperature-dependent sex determination. We developed a modified constant temperature equivalent model that accounts for the effect of the interaction among climate change, oviposition date, and seasonal thermal pattern on temperature during sexual differentiation and thus on offspring sex ratio. Our results suggest that females will not be able to buffer their progeny from the negative consequences of climate change by adjusting nesting date alone. Not only are offspring sex ratios predicted to become 100% female, but our model suggests that many nests will fail. Because the seasonal thermal trends that we consider are experienced by most temperate species, our result that adjusting spring phenology alone will be insufficient to counter the effects of directional climate change may be broadly applicable.

Recent Warming, Rather than Industrial Emissions of Bioavailable Nutrients, Is the Dominant Driver of Lake Primary Production Shifts across the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

PubMed Central

Summers, Jamie C.; Kurek, Joshua; Kirk, Jane L.; Muir, Derek C. G.; Wang, Xiaowa; Wiklund, Johan A.; Cooke, Colin A.; Evans, Marlene S.; Smol, John P.

2016-01-01

Freshwaters in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) are vulnerable to the atmospheric emissions and land disturbances caused by the local oil sands industry; however, they are also affected by climate change. Recent observations of increases in aquatic primary production near the main development area have prompted questions about the principal drivers of these limnological changes. Is the enhanced primary production due to deposition of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) from local industry or from recent climatic changes? Here, we use downcore, spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a (VRS-chla) profiles (including diagenetic products) from 23 limnologically-diverse lakes with undisturbed catchments to characterize the pattern of primary production increases in the AOSR. Our aim is to better understand the relative roles of the local oil sands industry versus climate change in driving aquatic primary production trends. Nutrient deposition maps, generated using geostatistical interpolations of spring-time snowpack measurements from a grid pattern across the AOSR, demonstrate patterns of elevated total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and bioavailable nitrogen deposition around the main area of industrial activity. However, this pattern is not observed for bioavailable phosphorus. Our paleolimnological findings demonstrate consistently greater VRS-chla concentrations compared to pre-oil sands development levels, regardless of morphological and limnological characteristics, landscape position, bioavailable nutrient deposition, and dibenzothiophene (DBT)-inferred industrial impacts. Furthermore, breakpoint analyses on VRS-chla concentrations across a gradient of DBT-inferred industrial impact show limited evidence of a contemporaneous change among lakes. Despite the contribution of bioavailable nitrogen to the landscape from industrial activities, we find no consistency in the spatial pattern and timing of VRS-chla shifts with an industrial fertilizing signal. Instead, significant positive correlations were observed between VRS-chla and annual and seasonal temperatures. Our findings suggest warmer air temperatures and likely decreased ice covers are important drivers of enhanced aquatic primary production across the AOSR. PMID:27135946

Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

2002-01-01

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Habitat degradation may affect niche segregation patterns in lizards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelegrin, N.; Chani, J. M.; Echevarria, A. L.; Bucher, E. H.

2013-08-01

Lizards partition resources in three main niche dimensions: time, space and food. Activity time and microhabitat use are strongly influenced by thermal environment, and may differ between species according to thermal requirements and tolerance. As thermal characteristics are influenced by habitat structure, microhabitat use and activity of lizards can change in disturbed habitats. We compared activity and microhabitat use of two abundant lizard species of the Semi-arid Chaco of Argentina between a restored and a highly degraded Chaco forest, to determine how habitat degradation affects lizard segregation in time and space, hypothesizing that as activity and microhabitat use of lizards are related to habitat structure, activity and microhabitat use of individual species can be altered in degraded habitats, thus changing segregation patterns between them. Activity changed from an overlapped pattern in a restored forest to a segregated pattern in a degraded forest. A similar trend was observed for microhabitat use, although to a less extent. No correlation was found between air temperature and lizard activity, but lizard activity varied along the day and among sites. Contrary to what was believed, activity patterns of neotropical diurnal lizards are not fixed, but affected by multiple factors related to habitat structure and possibly to interspecific interactions. Changes in activity patterns and microhabitat use in degraded forests may have important implications when analyzing the effects of climate change on lizard species, due to synergistic effects.

Observations of stratospheric temperature changes coincident with the recent Antarctic ozone depletions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William J.; Newman, Paul A.

1988-01-01

A high degree of correlation between the recent decline in Antarctic total ozone and cooling of the stratosphere during Austral spring has been noted in several recent studies (e.g., Sekiguchi, 1986; Angel, 1986). This study analyzes the observed temperature trends in detail, focusing on the spatial and temporal aspects of the observed cooling. Ozone losses and stratospheric cooling can be correlated for several reasons: (1) ozone losses (from an unspecified cause) will directly reduce temperatures due to decreased solar ultraviolet absorption (Shine, 1986), and/or (2) changes in both ozone and temperature structure due to modification of stratospheric circulation patterns (Mahlman and Fels, 1986). In order to scrutinize various ozone depletion scenarios, detailed information on the observed temperature changes is necessary; the goal is to provide such data. The data used are National Meteorological Center (NMC) Climate Analysis Center (CAC) derived temperatures, covering 1000 to 1 mb (0 to 48 km), for the period 1979 to 1987. Discussions on data origin and quality (assessed by extensive comparisons with radiosonde observations), along with other details of these observations, can be found in Newman and Randel (1988).

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disturbance impacts on land surface temperature and gross primary productivity in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, L. Annie; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Holden, Zachary A.; Landguth, Erin L.

2017-04-01

Forest disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function and may impact climate through changes in net radiation or through shifts in carbon exchange. Climate impacts vary depending on environmental variables and disturbance characteristics, yet few studies have investigated disturbance impacts over large, environmentally heterogeneous, regions. We used satellite data to objectively determine the impacts of fire, bark beetles, defoliators, and "unidentified disturbances" (UDs) on land surface temperature (LST) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the western United States (U.S.). We investigated immediate disturbance impacts, the drivers of those impacts, and long-term postdisturbance LST and GPP recovery patterns. All disturbance types caused LST increases (°C; fire: 3.45 ± 3.02, bark beetles: 0.76 ± 3.04, defoliators: 0.49 ± 3.12, and UD: 0.76 ± 3.03). Fire and insects resulted in GPP declines (%; fire: -25.05 ± 21.67, bark beetles: -2.84 ± 21.06, defoliators: -0.23 ± 15.40), while UDs resulted in slightly enhanced GPP (1.89 ± 24.20%). Disturbance responses also varied between ecoregions. Severity and interannual changes in air temperature were the primary drivers of short-term disturbance responses, and severity also had a strong impact on long-term recovery patterns. These results suggest a potential climate feedback due to disturbance-induced biophysical changes that may strengthen as disturbance regimes shift due to climate change.

Diurnal blood pressure variations are associated with changes in distal-proximal skin temperature gradient.

PubMed

Kräuchi, Kurt; Gompper, Britta; Hauenstein, Daniela; Flammer, Josef; Pflüger, Marlon; Studerus, Erich; Schötzau, Andy; Orgül, Selim

2012-11-01

It is generally assumed that skin vascular resistance contributes only to a small extent to total peripheral resistance and hence to blood pressure (BP). However, little is known about the impact of skin blood flow (SBF) changes on the diurnal variations of BP under ambulatory conditions. The main aim of the study was to determine whether diurnal patterns of distal SBF are related to mean arterial BP (MAP). Twenty-four-hour ambulatory measurements of BP, heart rate (HR) and distal (mean of hands and feet) as well as proximal (mean of sternum and infraclavicular region) skin temperatures were carried out in 51 patients (men/women = 18/33) during a 2-d eye hospital investigation. The standardized ambulatory protocol allowed measurements with minimal interference from uncontrolled parameters and, hence, some conclusive interpretations. The distal minus proximal skin temperature gradient (DPG) provided a measure for distal SBF. Individual cross-correlation analyses revealed that the diurnal pattern of MAP was nearly a mirror image of DPG and hence of distal SBF. Scheduled lunch and dinner induced an increase in DPG and a decline in MAP, while HR increased. Low daytime DPG (i.e. low distal SBF) levels significantly predicted sleep-induced BP dipping (r = -.436, p = .0014). Preliminary path analysis suggested that outdoor air temperature and atmospheric pressure may act on MAP via changed distal SBF. Changes in distal SBF may contribute to diurnal variation in MAP, including sleep-induced BP dipping and changes related to food intake. This finding might have an impact on individual cardiovascular risk prediction with respect to diurnal, seasonal and weather variations; however, the underlying mechanisms remain to be discovered.

From blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals to brain temperature maps.

PubMed

Sotero, Roberto C; Iturria-Medina, Yasser

2011-11-01

A theoretical framework is presented for converting Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) images to brain temperature maps, based on the idea that disproportional local changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) as compared with cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption (CMRO₂) during functional brain activity, lead to both brain temperature changes and the BOLD effect. Using an oxygen limitation model and a BOLD signal model, we obtain a transcendental equation relating CBF and CMRO₂ changes with the corresponding BOLD signal, which is solved in terms of the Lambert W function. Inserting this result in the dynamic bioheat equation describing the rate of temperature changes in the brain, we obtain a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation that depends on the BOLD response, which is solved numerically for each brain voxel. Temperature maps obtained from a real BOLD dataset registered in an attention to visual motion experiment were calculated, obtaining temperature variations in the range: (-0.15, 0.1) which is consistent with experimental results. The statistical analysis revealed that significant temperature activations have a similar distribution pattern than BOLD activations. An interesting difference was the activation of the precuneus in temperature maps, a region involved in visuospatial processing, an effect that was not observed on BOLD maps. Furthermore, temperature maps were more localized to gray matter regions than the original BOLD maps, showing less activated voxels in white matter and cerebrospinal fluid.

Estuarine turbidity, flushing, salinity, and circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchard, D. W.

1972-01-01

The effects of estuarine turbidity, flushing, salinity, and circulation on the ecology of the Chesapeake Bay are discussed. The sources of fresh water, the variations in salinity, and the circulation patterns created by temperature and salinity changes are analyzed. The application of remote sensors for long term observation of water temperatures is described. The sources of sediment and the biological effects resulting from increased sediments and siltation are identified.

Phase transitions in the system CaCO3 at high P and T determined by in situ vibrational spectroscopy in diamond anvil cells and first-principles simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch-Müller, Monika; Jahn, Sandro; Birkholz, Natalie; Ritter, Eglof; Schade, Ulrich

2016-09-01

The stability of the high-pressure CaCO3 calcite (cc)-related polymorphs was studied in experiments that were performed in conventional diamond anvil cells (DAC) at room temperature as a function of pressure up to 30 GPa as well as in internally heated diamond anvil cells (DAC-HT) at pressures and temperatures up to 20 GPa and 800 K. To probe structural changes, we used Raman and FTIR spectroscopy. For the latter, we applied conventional and synchrotron mid-infrared as well as synchrotron far-infrared radiation. Within the cc-III stability field (2.2-15 GPa at room temperature, e.g., Catalli and Williams in Phys Chem Miner 32(5-6):412-417, 2005), we observed in the Raman spectra consistently three different spectral patterns: Two patterns at pressures below and above 3.3 GPa were already described in Pippinger et al. (Phys Chem Miner 42(1):29-43, 2015) and assigned to the phase transition of cc-IIIb to cc-III at 3.3 GPa. In addition, we observed a clear change between 5 and 6 GPa that is independent of the starting material and the pressure path and time path of the experiments. This apparent change in the spectral pattern is only visible in the low-frequency range of the Raman spectra—not in the infrared spectra. Complementary electronic structure calculations confirm the existence of three distinct stability regions of cc-III-type phases at pressures up to about 15 GPa. By combining experimental and simulation data, we interpret the transition at 5-6 GPa as a re-appearance of the cc-IIIb phase. In all types of experiments, we confirmed the transition from cc-IIIb to cc-VI at about 15 GPa at room temperature. We found that temperature stabilizes cc-VI to lower pressure. The reaction cc-IIIb to cc-VI has a negative slope of -7.0 × 10-3 GPa K-1. Finally, we discuss the possibility of the dense cc-VI phase being more stable than aragonite at certain pressure and temperature conditions relevant to the Earth's mantle.

Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

PubMed

Randolph, Sarah E

2013-12-01

Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.

Hydroregime prediction models for ephemeral groundwater-driven sinkhole wetlands: a planning tool for climate change and amphibian conservation

Treesearch

C. H. Greenberg; S. Goodrick; J. D. Austin; B. R. Parresol

2015-01-01

Hydroregimes of ephemeral wetlands affect reproductive success of many amphibian species and are sensitive to altered weather patterns associated with climate change.We used 17 years of weekly temperature, precipitation, and waterdepth measurements for eight small, ephemeral, groundwaterdriven sinkhole wetlands in Florida sandhills to develop a hydroregime predictive...

Forest insect and fungal pathogen responses to drought [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Thomas E. Kolb; Christopher J. Fettig; Barbara J. Bentz; Jane E. Stewart; Aaron S. Weed; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Matthew P. Ayres

2016-01-01

Recent changes in precipitation patterns and in the occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events have been documented in many forested regions of the United States (Ryan and Vose 2012). Changes in drought intensity and frequency have the potential to alter populations and impacts of tree-damaging forest insects and pathogens (Ayers and Lombardero...

An investigation on thermal patterns in Iran based on spatial autocorrelation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Ghalhari, Gholamabbas; Dadashi Roudbari, Abbasali

2018-02-01

The present study aimed at investigating temporal-spatial patterns and monthly patterns of temperature in Iran using new spatial statistical methods such as cluster and outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis. To do so, climatic parameters, monthly average temperature of 122 synoptic stations, were assessed. Statistical analysis showed that January with 120.75% had the most fluctuation among the studied months. Global Moran's Index revealed that yearly changes of temperature in Iran followed a strong spatially clustered pattern. Findings showed that the biggest thermal cluster pattern in Iran, 0.975388, occurred in May. Cluster and outlier analyses showed that thermal homogeneity in Iran decreases in cold months, while it increases in warm months. This is due to the radiation angle and synoptic systems which strongly influence thermal order in Iran. The elevations, however, have the most notable part proved by Geographically weighted regression model. Iran's thermal analysis through hotspot showed that hot thermal patterns (very hot, hot, and semi-hot) were dominant in the South, covering an area of 33.5% (about 552,145.3 km2). Regions such as mountain foot and low lands lack any significant spatial autocorrelation, 25.2% covering about 415,345.1 km2. The last is the cold thermal area (very cold, cold, and semi-cold) with about 25.2% covering about 552,145.3 km2 of the whole area of Iran.

Mountain uplift explains differences in Palaeogene patterns of mammalian evolution and extinction between North America and Europe.

PubMed

Eronen, Jussi T; Janis, Christine M; Chamberlain, C Page; Mulch, Andreas

2015-06-22

Patterns of late Palaeogene mammalian evolution appear to be very different between Eurasia and North America. Around the Eocene-Oligocene (EO) transition global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummet: following this, European mammal faunas undergo a profound extinction event (the Grande Coupure), while in North America they appear to pass through this temperature event unscathed. Here, we investigate the role of surface uplift to environmental change and mammalian evolution through the Palaeogene (66-23 Ma). Palaeogene regional surface uplift in North America caused large-scale reorganization of precipitation patterns, particularly in the continental interior, in accord with our combined stable isotope and ecometric data. Changes in mammalian faunas reflect that these were dry and high-elevation palaeoenvironments. The scenario of Middle to Late Eocene (50-37 Ma) surface uplift, together with decreasing precipitation in higher-altitude regions of western North America, explains the enigma of the apparent lack of the large-scale mammal faunal change around the EO transition that characterized western Europe. We suggest that North American mammalian faunas were already pre-adapted to cooler and drier conditions preceding the EO boundary, resulting from the effects of a protracted history of surface uplift. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

The temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition is not related to labile and recalcitrant carbon.

PubMed

Tang, Jie; Cheng, Hao; Fang, Changming

2017-01-01

The response of resistant soil organic matter to temperature change is crucial for predicting climate change impacts on C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the response of the decomposition of different soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions to temperature is still under debate. To investigate whether the labile and resistant SOC components have different temperature sensitivities, soil samples were collected from three forest and two grass land sites, along with a gradient of latitude from 18°40'to 43°17'N and elevation from 600 to 3510 m across China, and were incubated under changing temperature (from 12 to 32 oC) for at least 260 days. Soil respiration rates were positively related to the content of soil organic carbon and soil microbial carbon. The temperature sensitivity of soil respiration, presented as Q10 value, varies from 1.93 ± 0.15 to 2.60 ± 0.21. During the incubation, there were no significant differences between the Q10 values of soil samples from different layers of the same site, nor a clear pattern of Q10 values along with the gradient of latitude. The result of this study does not support current opinion that resistant soil carbon decomposition is more sensitive to temperature change than labile soil carbon.

Measurement of physiological traits of paddy rice in temperature gradient chamber using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Photochemical Reflectance Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J. H.; Oh, D.; Cho, J.

2017-12-01

Global warming has been affecting the phenological and physiological conditions of crop plants due to heat stress. Thus, the scientific understanding of not only crop-yield change, but also growth progress during high temperature condition is necessary. In this study, growth response and yield of paddy rice depending on air temperature (Ta) has been studied in a Temperature Gradient Chamber (TGC) that is composed of higher Ta than actual Ta (ambient temperature). The results on imitating experiment of global warming provided the reduced production of crop by heat stress. Therefore, it is important to quickly detect the condition of a plant in order to minimize damage to heat stress on global warming. Phenological and physiological changes depending on Ta was detected using optical spectroscopy sensors because remote sensing is useful and efficient technology to monitor quickly and continually. Two vegetation indices, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), were applied to monitor paddy rice growth using hyperspectral and multispectral radiometer. Ta in TGC was gradually set from actual Ta + 0 ° to actual Ta + 3 °. The variations of NDVI and PRI were different during rice growth period, and also these patterns were changed depending on Ta condition. NDVI and PRI under +3 ° condition increase faster than ambient temperature. After heading stage, the values of NDVI and PRI were dropped. However, the NDVI and PRI of rice under heat stress were relatively slowly decreased. In addition, we found that the yield of rice decreased in the case of delayed drop patterns of NDVI and PRI after heading stage. Our results will be useful to understand crop plant conditions using vegetation index under global warming situations.

Assessment of Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, Donald H.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steve W.; Leavesley, George H.; Leavitt, Peter R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, Jack A.

1997-06-01

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month spring runoff period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow.Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forcing.Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as appropriate thermal criteria disappear. Warming temperatures may geographically isolate cold water stream fishes in increasingly confined headwaters. The heat budgets of large lakes may be affected resulting in a change of state between dimictic and warm monomictic character. Uncertainties associated with prediction are increased by the planting of fish in historically fishless, high mountain lakes and the introduction of non-native species of fishes and invertebrates into often previously simple food-webs of large valley bottom lakes and streams. Many of the streams and rivers suffer from the anthropogenic effects of abstraction and regulation. Likewise, many of the large lakes receive nutrient loads from a growing human population.We concluded that: (1) regional climate models are required to resolve adequately the complexities of the high gradient landscapes; (2) extensive wilderness preserves and national park lands, so prevalent in the Rocky Mountain Region, provide sensitive areas for differentiation of anthropogenic effects from climate effects; and (3) future research should encompass both short-term intensive studies and long-term monitoring studies developed within comprehensive experimental arrays of streams and lakes specifically designed to address the issue of anthropogenic versus climatic effects.

Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, D.H.; Fausch, K.D.; Hostetler, S.W.; Leavesley, G.H.; Leavitt, P.R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, J.A.

1997-01-01

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month 'spring runoff' period, rivers frequently discharge >70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow. Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation) forcing. Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as appropriate thermal criteria disappear. Warming temperatures may geographically isolate cole water stream fishes in increasingly confined headwaters. The heat budgets of large lakes may be affected resulting in a change of state between dimictic and warm monomictic character. Uncertainties associated with prediction are increased by the planting of fish in historically fishless, high mountain lakes and the introduction of non-native species of fishes and invertebrates into often previously simple food-webs of large valley bottom lakes and streams. Many of the streams and rivers suffer from the anthropogenic effects of abstraction and regulation. Likewise, many of the large lakes receive nutrient loads from a growing human population. We concluded that: (1) regional climate models are required to resolve adequately the complexities of the high gradient landscapes; (2) extensive wilderness preserves and national park lands, so prevalent in the Rocky Mountain Region, provide sensitive areas for differentiation of anthropogenic effects from climate effects; and (3) future research should encompass both short-term intensive studies and long-term monitoring studies developed within comprehensive experimental arrays of streams and lakes specifically designed to address the issue of anthropogenic versus climatic effects. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detecting Changes of Thermal Environment over the Bohai Coastal Region by Spectral Change Vector Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Jia, G.

2009-12-01

Change vector analysis (CVA) is an effective approach for detecting and characterizing land-cover change by comparing pairs of multi-spectral and multi-temporal datasets over certain area derived from various satellite platforms. NDVI is considered as an effective detector for biophysical changes due to its sensitivity to red and near infrared signals, while land surface temperature (LST) is considered as a valuable indicator for changes of ground thermal conditions. Here we try to apply CVA over satellite derived LST datasets to detect changes of land surface thermal properties parallel to climate change and anthropogenic influence in a city cluster since 2001. In this study, monthly land surface temperature datasets from 2001-2008 derived from MODIS collection 5 were used to examine change pattern of thermal environment over the Bohai coastal region by using spectral change vector analysis. The results from principle component analysis (PCA) for LST show that the PC 1-3 contain over 80% information on monthly variations and these PCA components represent the main processes of land thermal environment change over the study area. Time series of CVA magnitude combined with land cover information show that greatest change occurred in urban and heavily populated area, featured with expansion of urban heat island, while moderate change appeared in grassland area in the north. However few changes were observed over large plain area and forest area. Strong signals also are related to economy level and especially the events of surface cover change, such as emergence of railway and port. Two main processes were also noticed about the changes of thermal environment. First, weak signal was detected in mostly natural area influenced by interannual climate change in temperate broadleaf forest area. Second, land surface temperature changes were controlled by human activities as 1) moderate change of LST happened in grassland influenced by grazing and 2) urban heat island was intensifier in major cities, such as Beijing and Tianjin. Further, the continual drier climate combined with human actions over past fifties years have intensified land thermal pattern change and the continuation will be an important aspects to understand land surface processes and local climate change. Land surface temperature trends from 2000-2008 over the Bohai coastal region

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Centennial-to-millennial scale climate change during the last 100,000 years: a Southern Hemisphere perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

2017-04-01

The response of past terrestrial ecosystems to abrupt climate change is central to the debate surrounding the consequences of future climate change. Many centennial-to-millennial scale episodes of rapid change over the past 117,000 years have been reported, notably the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of Greenland and the North Atlantic and Antarctic Isotope Maxima. Best expressed in past climate records from the polar and tropical regions, the timing, amplitude and duration of these changes are variable on a global scale, and it is unclear how the events are generated and transmitted to cause such asynchronous patterns. The southern mid-latitudes form a poorly understood piece of the puzzle. Our Marsden-funded project aims to increase understanding of the New Zealand climate system in relation to global patterns over the last 100 kyr by developing high-resolution climate records from the lake sediments contained within Auckland's maars. These crater lakes are unique, because their sediments are laminated throughout and the sedimentation rate is very high. Additionally, the numerous (>50) volcanic ash layers contained within the sediments act as anchor points in our chronologies. We have adopted a multiproxy approach that combines data from biotic, molecular biomarker isotope and geochemical analyses. The remit of my doctorate is to produce two independent, but complementary, temperature reconstructions from chironomid remains (mean summer temperatures) and pollen (mean annual temperatures) from Lake Pupuke sediments. This approach will eventually help us to address whether abrupt climate change events or changes in seasonality influenced climate and biota over the past 100,000 years in northern New Zealand, and whether these changes were driven by triggers from the North Atlantic, Antarctica or the tropics.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Mapping sleeping bees within their nest: spatial and temporal analysis of worker honey bee sleep.

PubMed

Klein, Barrett Anthony; Stiegler, Martin; Klein, Arno; Tautz, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Patterns of behavior within societies have long been visualized and interpreted using maps. Mapping the occurrence of sleep across individuals within a society could offer clues as to functional aspects of sleep. In spite of this, a detailed spatial analysis of sleep has never been conducted on an invertebrate society. We introduce the concept of mapping sleep across an insect society, and provide an empirical example, mapping sleep patterns within colonies of European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Honey bees face variables such as temperature and position of resources within their colony's nest that may impact their sleep. We mapped sleep behavior and temperature of worker bees and produced maps of their nest's comb contents as the colony grew and contents changed. By following marked bees, we discovered that individuals slept in many locations, but bees of different worker castes slept in different areas of the nest relative to position of the brood and surrounding temperature. Older worker bees generally slept outside cells, closer to the perimeter of the nest, in colder regions, and away from uncapped brood. Younger worker bees generally slept inside cells and closer to the center of the nest, and spent more time asleep than awake when surrounded by uncapped brood. The average surface temperature of sleeping foragers was lower than the surface temperature of their surroundings, offering a possible indicator of sleep for this caste. We propose mechanisms that could generate caste-dependent sleep patterns and discuss functional significance of these patterns.

Historical GIS Data and Changes in Urban Morphological Parameters for the Analysis of Urban Heat Islands in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, F.; Wong, M. S.; Nichol, J. E.; Chan, P. W.

2016-06-01

Rapid urban development between the 1960 and 2010 decades have changed the urban landscape and pattern in the Kowloon Peninsula of Hong Kong. This paper aims to study the changes of urban morphological parameters between the 1985 and 2010 and explore their influences on the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study applied a mono-window algorithm to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1987 to 2009. In order to estimate the effects of local urban morphological parameters to LST, the global surface temperature anomaly was analysed. Historical 3D building model was developed based on aerial photogrammetry technique using aerial photographs from 1964 to 2010, in which the urban digital surface models (DSMs) including elevations of infrastructures and buildings have been generated. Then, urban morphological parameters (i.e. frontal area index (FAI), sky view factor (SVF)), vegetation fractional cover (VFC), global solar radiation (GSR), Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), wind speed were derived. Finally, a linear regression method in Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) was used to build prediction model for revealing LST spatial patterns. Results show that the final apparent surface temperature have uncertainties less than 1 degree Celsius. The comparison between the simulated and actual spatial pattern of LST in 2009 showed that the correlation coefficient is 0.65, mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.24 degree Celsius, and root mean square error (RMSE) is 1.51 degree Celsius of 22,429 pixels.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Effects of climate change on water quality in the Yaquina ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of a larger study to examine the effect of climate change (CC) on estuarine resources, we simulated the effect of rising sea level, alterations in river discharge, and increasing atmospheric temperatures on water quality in the Yaquina Estuary. Due to uncertainty in the effects of climate change, initial model simulations were performed for different steady river discharge rates that span the historical range in inflow, and for a range of increases in sea level and atmospheric temperature. Model simulations suggest that in the central portion of the estuary (19 km from mouth), a 60-cm increase in sea level will result in a 2-3 psu change in salinity across a broad range of river discharges. For the oligohaline portion of the estuary, salinity increases associated with a rise in sea level of 60 cm are only apparent at low river discharge rates (< 50 m3 s-1). Simulations suggest that the water temperatures near the mouth of the estuary will decrease due to rising sea level, while water temperatures in upriver portions of the estuary will increase due to rising atmospheric temperatures. We present results which demonstrate how the interaction of changes in river discharge, rising sea level, and atmospheric temperature associated with climate change produce non-linear patterns in the response of estuarine salinity and temperature, which vary with location inside the estuary and season. We also will discuss the importance of presenting results in a mann

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Insect-plant-pathogen interactions as shaped by future climate: effects on biology, distribution, and implications for agriculture.

PubMed

Trębicki, Piotr; Dáder, Beatriz; Vassiliadis, Simone; Fereres, Alberto

2017-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the main anthropogenic gas which has drastically increased since the industrial revolution, and current concentrations are projected to double by the end of this century. As a consequence, elevated CO 2 is expected to alter the earths' climate, increase global temperatures and change weather patterns. This is likely to have both direct and indirect impacts on plants, insect pests, plant pathogens and their distribution, and is therefore problematic for the security of future food production. This review summarizes the latest findings and highlights current knowledge gaps regarding the influence of climate change on insect, plant and pathogen interactions with an emphasis on agriculture and food production. Direct effects of climate change, including increased CO 2 concentration, temperature, patterns of rainfall and severe weather events that impact insects (namely vectors of plant pathogens) are discussed. Elevated CO 2 and temperature, together with plant pathogen infection, can considerably change plant biochemistry and therefore plant defense responses. This can have substantial consequences on insect fecundity, feeding rates, survival, population size, and dispersal. Generally, changes in host plant quality due to elevated CO 2 (e.g., carbon to nitrogen ratios in C3 plants) negatively affect insect pests. However, compensatory feeding, increased population size and distribution have also been reported for some agricultural insect pests. This underlines the importance of additional research on more targeted, individual insect-plant scenarios at specific locations to fully understand the impact of a changing climate on insect-plant-pathogen interactions. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association.

PubMed

Zhan, Jiasui; Ericson, Lars; Burdon, Jeremy J

2018-02-27

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April-November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host-pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far-reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Marginal Cost Based "Social Cost of Carbon" Provides Inappropriate Guidance in a World That Needs Rapid and Deep Decarbonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, M. G.; Vaishnav, P.; Azevedo, I. L.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Marangoni-Benard Convection in a Evaporating Liquid Thin Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chai, An-Ti; Zhang, Nengli

1996-01-01

Marangoni-Benard convection in evaporating liquid thin layers has been investigated through flow visualization and temperature profile measurement. Twelve liquids, namely ethyl alcohol, methanol, chloroform, acetone, cyclohexane, benzine, methylene chloride, carbon tetrachloride, ethyl acetate, n-pentane, silicone oil (0.65 cSt.), and freon-113, were tested and convection patterns in thin layers of these samples were observed. Comparison among these tested samples shows that some liquids are sensitive to surface contamination from aluminum powder but some are not. The latter is excellent to be used for the investigation of surface-tension driven convection through visualization using the tracer. Two sample liquids, alcohol and freon-113 were particularly selected for systematic study. It was found that the wavelength of Benard cells would not change with thickness of the layer when it evaporates at room temperature. Special attention was focused on cases in which a liquid layer was cooled from below, and some interesting results were obtained. Convection patterns were recorded during the evaporation process and the patterns at certain time frame were compared. Benard cells were observed in thin layers with a nonlinear temperature profile and even with a zero or positive temperature gradient. Wavelength of the cells was found to increase as the evaporation progressed.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Hartree-Fock values of energies, interaction constants, and atomic properties for excited states with 3 d N4 s0 and 3 d n4 s2 configurations of the negative ions, neutral atoms, and first four positive ions of the transition elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, C. D.; Jastram, J. D.; Hitt, N. P.; Woffod, J.; Rice, K. C.

2012-12-01

Global climate-change models predict warmer stream temperatures, but there have been few studies that document such effects on stream communities. In Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, long-term temperature records indicate that stream temperatures show an increasing trend over the last 20 years and especially over the last 10 years. Stream temperatures have increased apparently due to atmospheric warming (i.e., stream temperatures are strongly correlated with regional air temperature patterns). Across 14 monitored stream sites, the median increase in maximum annual water temperature was 0.32oC per year for the 10-yr period between 2000 and 2009, and all 14 sites had positive trend slopes. Moreover, in contrast to water-chemistry trends, temperature trends showed no spatial structure and were consistent throughout the park. The observed warming is consistent with global warming projections, but other factors, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and forest defoliation due to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), also may have contributed to warming trends. We summarized benthic macroinvertebrate community composition and structure from samples collected at 24 stream sites over the last 20 years and evaluated temporal patterns in the context of observed temperature trends. We found that a substantial amount of temporal variation in both taxonomic composition and community structure could be explained by temperature trends, even after accounting for water-chemistry changes. We observed significant declines in community diversity as well as a decline in the abundance of several stonefly (Plecoptera) taxa, a cold-water-dependent taxonomic group. We hypothesize that temperature-induced changes in the diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities could cascade to other faunal groups and other parts of the watershed. For instance, reduced abundances of stoneflies, an important component of the shredder functional group, may lead to reduced export of fine particulate organic matter from headwaters, disrupting food webs and reducing productivity to stream reaches farther downstream.

Evolutionary rescue and local adaptation under different rates of temperature increase: a combined analysis of changes in phenotype expression and genotype frequency in Paramecium microcosms.

PubMed

Killeen, Joshua; Gougat-Barbera, Claire; Krenek, Sascha; Kaltz, Oliver

2017-04-01

Evolutionary rescue (ER) occurs when populations, which have declined due to rapid environmental change, recover through genetic adaptation. The success of this process and the evolutionary trajectory of the population strongly depend on the rate of environmental change. Here we investigated how different rates of temperature increase (from 23 to 32 °C) affect population persistence and evolutionary change in experimental microcosms of the protozoan Paramecium caudatum. Consistent with theory on ER, we found that those populations experiencing the slowest rate of temperature increase were the least likely to become extinct and tended to be the best adapted to the new temperature environment. All high-temperature populations were more tolerant to severe heat stress (35, 37 °C), indicating a common mechanism of heat protection. High-temperature populations also had superior growth rates at optimum temperatures, leading to the absence of a pattern of local adaptation to control (23 °C) and high-temperature (32 °C) environments. However, high-temperature populations had reduced growth at low temperatures (5-9 °C), causing a shift in the temperature niche. In part, the observed evolutionary change can be explained by selection from standing variation. Using mitochondrial markers, we found complete divergence between control and high-temperature populations in the frequencies of six initial founder genotypes. Our results confirm basic predictions of ER and illustrate how adaptation to an extreme local environment can produce positive as well as negative correlated responses to selection over the entire range of the ecological niche. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuanjie; Gao, Zhiqiu; Pan, Zaitao; Li, Dan; Huang, Xinhui

2017-03-01

Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in > 500 years.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

PubMed

Clegg, Benjamin F; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H; Walker, Ian R; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-11-29

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000-5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska

PubMed Central

Clegg, Benjamin F.; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H.; Walker, Ian R.; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-01-01

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate “surprises” with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000–5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land–atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. PMID:22084085

Numerical study of effect of compressor swirling flow on combustor design in a MTE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Yong; Wang, Chengdong; Liu, Cunxi; Liu, Fuqiang; Hu, Chunyan; Xu, Gang; Zhu, Junqiang

2017-08-01

An effect of the swirling flow on the combustion performance is studied by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a micro-gas turbine with a centrifugal compressor, dump diffuser and forward-flow combustor. The distributions of air mass and the Temperature Pattern Factor (as: Overall Temperature Distribution Factor -OTDF) in outlet are investigated with two different swirling angles of compressed air as 0° and 15° in three combustors. The results show that the influences of swirling flow on the air distribution and OTDF cannot be neglected. Compared with no-swirling flow, the air through outer liner is more, and the air through the inner liner is less, and the pressure loss is bigger under the swirling condition in the same combustor. The Temperature Pattern Factor changes under the different swirling conditions.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Impacts of ambient temperature on the burden of bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China.

PubMed

Cheng, J; Xie, M Y; Zhao, K F; Wu, J J; Xu, Z W; Song, J; Zhao, D S; Li, K S; Wang, X; Yang, H H; Wen, L Y; Su, H; Tong, S L

2017-06-01

Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006-2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36-27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21-36·68%) in urban area to -1·90% (95 eCI -25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1-4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4-31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Analyzing land surface temperature variations during Fogo Island (Cape Verde) 2014-2015 eruption with Landsat 8 images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, D.; Teodoro, A.; Gomes, A.

2016-10-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important parameter related to land surface processes that changes continuously through time. Assessing its dynamics during a volcanic eruption has both environmental and socio-economical interest. Lava flows and other volcanic materials produced and deposited throughout an eruption transform the landscape, contributing to its heterogeneity and altering LST measurements. This paper aims to assess variations of satellite-derived LST and to detect patterns during the latest Fogo Island (Cape Verde) eruption, extending from November 2014 through February 2015. LST data was obtained through four processed Landsat 8 images, focused on the caldera where Pico do Fogo volcano sits. QGIS' plugin Semi-Automatic Classification was used in order to apply atmospheric corrections and radiometric calibrations. The algorithm used to retrieve LST values is a single-channel method, in which emissivity values are known. The absence of in situ measurements is compensated by the use of MODIS sensor-derived LST data, used to compare with Landsat retrieved measurements. LST data analysis shows as expected that the highest LST values are located inside the caldera. High temperature values were also founded on the south-facing flank of the caldera. Although spatial patterns observed on the retrieved data remained roughly the same during the time period considered, temperature values changed throughout the area and over time, as it was also expected. LST values followed the eruption dynamic experiencing a growth followed by a decline. Moreover, it seems possible to recognize areas affected by lava flows of previous eruptions, due to well-defined LST spatial patterns.

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Huey, Raymond B

2016-12-01

Extreme temperatures can injure or kill organisms and can drive evolutionary patterns. Many indices of extremes have been proposed, but few attempts have been made to establish geographic patterns of extremes and to evaluate whether they align with geographic patterns in biological vulnerability and diversity. To examine these issues, we adopt the CLIMDEX indices of thermal extremes. We compute scores for each index on a geographic grid during a baseline period (1961-1990) and separately for the recent period (1991-2010). Heat extremes (temperatures above the 90th percentile during the baseline period) have become substantially more common during the recent period, particularly in the tropics. Importantly, the various indices show weak geographic concordance, implying that organisms in different regions will face different forms of thermal stress. The magnitude of recent shifts in indices is largely uncorrelated with baseline scores in those indices, suggesting that organisms are likely to face novel thermal stresses. Organismal tolerances correlate roughly with absolute metrics (mainly for cold), but poorly with metrics defined relative to local conditions. Regions with high extreme scores do not correlate closely with regions with high species diversity, human population density, or agricultural production. Even though frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have - and are likely to have - major impacts on organisms, the impacts are likely to be geographically and taxonomically idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global change impacts on large-scale biogeographic patterns of marine organisms on Atlantic oceanic islands.

PubMed

Ávila, Sérgio P; Cordeiro, Ricardo; Madeira, Patrícia; Silva, Luís; Medeiros, António; Rebelo, Ana C; Melo, Carlos; Neto, Ana I; Haroun, Ricardo; Monteiro, António; Rijsdijk, Kenneth; Johnson, Markes E

2018-01-01

Past climate changes provide important clues for advancement of studies on current global change biology. We have tested large-scale biogeographic patterns through four marine groups from twelve Atlantic Ocean archipelagos and searched for patterns between species richness/endemism and littoral area, age, isolation, latitude and mean annual sea-surface temperatures. Species richness is strongly correlated with littoral area. Two reinforcing effects take place during glacial episodes: i) species richness is expected to decrease (in comparison with interglacial periods) due to the local disappearance of sandy/muddy-associated species; ii) because littoral area is minimal during glacial episodes, area per se induces a decrease on species richness (by extirpation/extinction of marine species) as well as affecting speciation rates. Maximum speciation rates are expected to occur during the interglacial periods, whereas immigration rates are expected to be higher at the LGM. Finally, sea-level changes are a paramount factor influencing marine biodiversity of animals and plants living on oceanic islands. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Color constancy: phenomenal or projective?

PubMed

Reeves, Adam J; Amano, Kinjiro; Foster, David H

2008-02-01

Naive observers viewed a sequence of colored Mondrian patterns, simulated on a color monitor. Each pattern was presented twice in succession, first under one daylight illuminant with a correlated color temperature of either 16,000 or 4000 K and then under the other, to test for color constancy. The observers compared the central square of the pattern across illuminants, either rating it for sameness of material appearance or sameness of hue and saturation or judging an objective property-that is, whether its change of color originated from a change in material or only from a change in illumination. Average color constancy indices were high for material appearance ratings and binary judgments of origin and low for hue-saturation ratings. Individuals' performance varied, but judgments of material and of hue and saturation remained demarcated. Observers seem able to separate phenomenal percepts from their ontological projections of mental appearance onto physical phenomena; thus, even when a chromatic change alters perceived hue and saturation, observers can reliably infer the cause, the constancy of the underlying surface spectral reflectance.

Changes in canopy cover alter surface air and forest floor temperature in a high-elevation red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) forest

Treesearch

Johnny L. Boggs; Steven G. McNulty

2010-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe winter and summer surface air and forest floor temperature patterns and diurnal fluctuations in high-elevation red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) forests with different levels of canopy cover. In 1988, a series of 10- x 10-meter plots (control, low nitrogen [N] addition, and high nitrogen addition) were...

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

The spatial variable glacier mass loss over the southeast Tibet Plateau and the climate cause analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, L.; Ding, X.; Song, C.; Sheng, Y.

2016-12-01

Temperate glaciers can be highly sensitive to global climate change due to relatively humid and warm local climate. Numerous temperate glaciers are distributed in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) and their changes are still poorly represented. Based on a latest glacier inventory and ICESat altimetry measurements, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of glacier change in the SETP (including the central and eastern Nyainqêntanglha ranges) and further analyze its relation with climate change by using station-based and gridded meteorological data. Our results show that SETP glaciers experienced drastic surface lowering at about -0.84±0.26 m a-1 on average over 2003-2008. Debris-covered ice thinned at an average rate of -1.13±0.32 m a-1, in comparison with -0.92±0.17 m a-1 over the debris-free ice areas. The thinning rate is the strongest in the southeastern sub-region (up to -1.24 m a-1 ) and moderate ( -0.45 m a-1 ) in the central and northwestern parts, which is in general agreement with the pattern of surface mass changes based on the GRACE gravimetry observation. Long-term climate data at weather stations show that, in comparison with the period of 1992-2002, mean temperature increased by 0.46 °C - 0.59 °C in the recent decade (2003-2013); while the change of summer precipitation exhibited remarkably spatial variability, following a southeast-northwest contrasting pattern (decreasing by over 10% in the southeast, to stable level in the central region, and increment up to 10% in the northwest). This spatially variable precipitation change is consistent with results from CN05 grid data and ERA re-analysis data, and agrees well with the spatial pattern of glacier surface elevation changes. The results suggest that overall negative glacier mass balances in SETP are governed by temperature rising, while the different precipitation change could contribute to inconsistent glacier thinning rates. The spatial pattern of precipitation decrease and mass loss might be tele-connected with the dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon.

Historical Change of Equilibrium Water Temperature in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, H.

2015-12-01

Changes in freshwater ecosystems due to a climate change have been great concern for sustainable river basin management both for water resources utilization and ecological conservation. However, their impact seems to be difficult to evaluate because of wide variety of basin characteristics along a river network both in nature and social environment. This presentation uses equilibrium water temperature as a simple criterion index for evaluating the long-term changes of stream thermal environment due to the historical climate change in Japan. It examines, at first, the relationship between the equilibrium water temperature and the stream temperature observed for 7 years at a lower reach in the Ibo River, Japan. It analyzes, then, the seasonal and regional trends of the equilibrium water temperature change for the last 50 years at 133 meteorological station sites throughout Japan, discussing their rising or falling characteristics. The correlation analysis at the local reach of the Ibo River shows that the equilibrium water temperature has similar trend of change as the stream temperature. However, its value tends to be higher than the stream temperature in summer, while lower in winter. The onset of the higher equilibrium water temperature fluctuates annually from mid February to early April. This onset fluctuation at each spring could be influenced by the different amount of snow at the antecedent winter. The rising or falling trends of the equilibrium water temperature are analyzed both annually and seasonally through the regression analysis of the 133 sites in Japan. Consequently, the trends of the temperature change could be categorized by 12 patterns. As for the seasonal analysis, the results shows that there are many sites indicating the falling trend in spring and summer, and rising trends in autumn and winter. In particular, winter has the strong rising tendency throughout Japan. As for the regional analysis, the result illustrates the precise rationality; e.g., northern parts of Japan show the temperature fall in spring and the temperature rise in autumn, while the urbanized regions along the Pacific coastline indicate the temperature rise in all the four seasons.

Department of Defense 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

CREDIT: NANCY JONESBONBREST, PEO C3T HATCHLINGS FROM ENDANGERED SEA TURTLES ARE RELEASED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR KENNEDY SPACE CENTER/CAPE...changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger...disasters. Our coastal installations are vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding, while droughts, wildfires, and more extreme temperatures

Climate-growth relationships for yellow-poplar across structural and site quality gradients in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Tara L. Keyser; Peter M. Brown

2014-01-01

Forecasted changes in climate across the southeastern US include an increase in temperature along with more variable precipitation patterns, including an increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. As such, the management of forests for increased resistance or resilience to the direct and indirect effects of climate change, including decreased tree- and...

Shifts in the potential distribution of Sky Island plant communities in response to climate change

Treesearch

John A. Kupfer; Jeff Balmat; Jacqueline L. Smith

2005-01-01

To examine potential responses of sky island ecosystem pattern to projected climate changes, we used topographic and climatic data to develop a predictive model of plant community distribution in Saguaro National Park East, AZ. Increasing temperatures led to an upslope movement of communities and increased the area of desert scrub at the expense of montane conifer...

Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

2018-06-01

There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

Visualization and minimization of clustering of micro-pillars and walls due to liquid film evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jungchul; Kim, Ho-Young

2013-11-01

The spin drying, in which a rinsing liquid deposited on a wafer is rapidly dried by wafer spinning, is an essential step in the semiconductor manufacturing process. While the liquid evaporates, its meniscus straddles neighboring submicron-size patterns such as pillars and walls. Then the capillary effects that pull the patterns together may lead to direct contact of the patterns, which is often referred to as pattern leaning. This poses a problem becoming more and more serious as the pattern size shrinks and the aspect ratio of the patterns increases. While the clustering behavior of high-aspect-ratio micro- and nanopillars was investigated before, a technical strategy to prevent such clustering has been pursed in industrial practices without being supported by the recently established theory of elastocapillarity. Here we visualize the clustering behavior of polymer micropatterns with the evaporation of liquid film while varying the sizes and temperature of the micropatterns. We find a critical role of substrate temperature in preventing the leaning of the patterns via changing the evaporation rate and behavior of the liquid film. Also, we construct a regime map that guides us to find a process condition to avoid pattern leaning in semiconductor manufacturing. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (grant no. 2012-008023).

The Immediacy of Arctic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Wang, M.; Soreide, N. N.

2015-12-01

Ongoing temperature changes in the Arctic are large relative to lower latitudes; a process known as Arctic Amplification. Arctic temperatures have increased at least 3 times the rate of mid-latitude temperatures relative to the late 20th century, due to multiple interacting feedbacks driven by modest global change. Even if global temperature increases are contained to +2° C by 2040, Arctic (North of 60° N) monthly mean temperatures in fall will increase by +5° C. The Arctic is very likely to be sea ice free during summer before 2040, with the sea ice free duration limited to <5 months. Snow cover will be absent in May and June on most land masses. Whether these changes impact mid-latitude weather events is complex and controversial, as the time period for observing such linkages is short [<10 years] and involves understanding direct forcing by Arctic changes on a chaotic climatic system. Although chaotic internal variability dominates the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, Arctic thermodynamic influences can reinforce regional weather patterns. Extreme Arctic temperature events, as a combination of mean temperature increases combined with natural variability, will become common, nearing and exceeding previous thresholds. Such an event as an analog for the future was the +4° C anomalies for Alaska in November-December 2014 related to recent warm Pacific sea surface temperatures. Thus for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing rapid environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, despite any mitigation activities, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to meet these mean and extreme event changes. Mitigation is essential to forestall further disasters in the second half of the century. It is important to note such future rapid Arctic amplification, and the potential for environmental surprises, to support those making planning decisions and encourage action.

Patterns of cold-air drainage and microclimate in mid-latitude versus high-latitude mountains: contrasts and implications for climate change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.

2009-12-01

Predictions of current spatial patterns of climate are difficult in areas of complex relief in all parts of the world, because of the interweaving influences of topography, elevation and aspect. These influences vary temporally as a result of the seasonal and diurnal cycles in radiation balance. In periods of negative energy balance, surface decoupling can occur as cold air drainage develops low-level temperature inversions, and the surface temperature regime beneath the inversion becomes divorced from free atmospheric forcing. Both the spatial scale and temporal persistence of this decoupling vary according to latitude, and although the physical processes that influence inversion formation are similar in polar areas and mid-latitude mountains, the contrasting seasonal and diurnal forcings make the end results very different. Examples are contrasted from detailed field temperature measurements (~50 sites per field area) taken over several years in areas of complex relief in the eastern Pyrenees (~42.5 deg N), the Oregon Cascades (also ~42.5 deg N) and Finnish Lapland (70 deg N and above the Arctic circle). In the former two locations decoupling is mostly diurnally driven, and small-scale topography is important in mediating the effects. Summer decoupling is brief and spatially limited, whereas winter decoupling can be more spatially extensive. There are strong relationships between synoptic conditions, as measured by objective flow indices at the 700 mb level (derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields) and the patterns of decoupling, which allow us to assess the effects of past and potential future circulation change on spatial patterns of future climate warming. In Finnish Lapland the decoupling regime most clearly approaches the mid-latitude pattern around the equinoxes when there are clear day and night periods. In winter and summer however (the polar night and polar day) with the muting of the diurnal cycle, processes are more poorly understood. Winter cold pools can develop and strengthen over days until eventually they extend over and above the topography. Strangely, there are also indistinct relationships with circulation indices at this time. While build-up can take days, destruction is often immediate and is dynamically forced. In summer, localized decoupling occurs on clear nights even though the sun is above the horizon, but micro-scale patterns are different than in mid-latitudes. The above comparison shows that polar areas are very different in their micro-temperature regimes than mid-latitude mountains and in their relationships of these regimes with circulation. Thus we expect detailed spatial patterns of climate change may be very different in the two regions.

Flow and Pollutant Transport in Urban Street Canyons of Different Aspect Ratios with Ground Heating: Large-Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xian-Xiang; Britter, Rex E.; Norford, Leslie K.; Koh, Tieh-Yong; Entekhabi, Dara

2012-02-01

A validated large-eddy simulation model was employed to study the effect of the aspect ratio and ground heating on the flow and pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons. Three ground-heating intensities (neutral, weak and strong) were imposed in street canyons of aspect ratio 1, 2, and 0.5. The detailed patterns of flow, turbulence, temperature and pollutant transport were analyzed and compared. Significant changes of flow and scalar patterns were caused by ground heating in the street canyon of aspect ratio 2 and 0.5, while only the street canyon of aspect ratio 0.5 showed a change in flow regime (from wake interference flow to skimming flow). The street canyon of aspect ratio 1 does not show any significant change in the flow field. Ground heating generated strong mixing of heat and pollutant; the normalized temperature inside street canyons was approximately spatially uniform and somewhat insensitive to the aspect ratio and heating intensity. This study helps elucidate the combined effects of urban geometry and thermal stratification on the urban canyon flow and pollutant dispersion.

Cranberry flowering times and climate change in southern Massachusetts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellwood, Elizabeth R.; Playfair, Susan R.; Polgar, Caroline A.; Primack, Richard B.

2014-09-01

Plants in wild and agricultural settings are being affected by the warmer temperatures associated with climate change. Here we examine the degree to which the iconic New England cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon, is exhibiting signs of altered flowering phenology. Using contemporary records from commercial cranberry bogs in southeastern Massachusetts in the United States, we found that cranberry plants are responsive to temperature. Flowering is approximately 2 days earlier for each 1 °C increase in May temperature. We also investigated the relationship between cranberry flowering and flight dates of the bog copper, Lycaena epixanthe—a butterfly dependent upon cranberry plants in its larval stage. Cranberry flowering and bog copper emergence were found to be changing disproportionately over time, suggesting a potential ecological mismatch. The pattern of advanced cranberry flowering over time coupled with increased temperature has implications not only for the relationship between cranberry plants and their insect associates but also for agricultural crops in general and for the commercial cranberry industry.

Cranberry flowering times and climate change in southern Massachusetts.

PubMed

Ellwood, Elizabeth R; Playfair, Susan R; Polgar, Caroline A; Primack, Richard B

2014-09-01

Plants in wild and agricultural settings are being affected by the warmer temperatures associated with climate change. Here we examine the degree to which the iconic New England cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon, is exhibiting signs of altered flowering phenology. Using contemporary records from commercial cranberry bogs in southeastern Massachusetts in the United States, we found that cranberry plants are responsive to temperature. Flowering is approximately 2 days earlier for each 1 °C increase in May temperature. We also investigated the relationship between cranberry flowering and flight dates of the bog copper, Lycaena epixanthe-a butterfly dependent upon cranberry plants in its larval stage. Cranberry flowering and bog copper emergence were found to be changing disproportionately over time, suggesting a potential ecological mismatch. The pattern of advanced cranberry flowering over time coupled with increased temperature has implications not only for the relationship between cranberry plants and their insect associates but also for agricultural crops in general and for the commercial cranberry industry.

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Ray, Chris; Mote, Philip W; Wilkening, Jennifer L

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Chris, R.A.Y.; Mote, P.W.; Wilkening, J.L.

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Greater temporal changes of sediment microbial community than its waterborne counterpart in Tengchong hot springs, Yunnan Province, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Shang; Dong, Hailiang; Hou, Weiguo; Jiang, Hongchen; Huang, Qiuyuan; Briggs, Brandon R.; Huang, Liuqin

2014-01-01

Temporal variation in geochemistry can cause changes in microbial community structure and diversity. Here we studied temporal changes of microbial communities in Tengchong hot springs of Yunnan Province, China in response to geochemical variations by using microbial and geochemical data collected in January, June and August of 2011. Greater temporal variations were observed in individual taxa than at the whole community structure level. Water and sediment communities exhibited different temporal variation patterns. Water communities were largely stable across three sampling times and dominated by similar microbial lineages: Hydrogenobaculum in moderate-temperature acidic springs, Sulfolobus in high-temperature acidic springs, and Hydrogenobacter in high-temperature circumneutral to alkaline springs. Sediment communities were more diverse and responsive to changing physicochemical conditions. Most of the sediment communities in January and June were similar to those in waters. However, the August sediment community was more diverse and contained more anaerobic heterotrophs than the January and June: Desulfurella and Acidicaldus in moderate-temperature acidic springs, Ignisphaera and Desulfurococcus in high-temperature acidic springs, the candidate division OP1 and Fervidobacterium in alkaline springs, and Thermus and GAL35 in neutral springs. Temporal variations in physicochemical parameters including temperature, pH, and dissolved organic carbon may have triggered the observed microbial community shifts. PMID:25524763

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

Patterns and Potential Drivers of Dramatic Changes in Tibetan Lakes, 1972–2010

PubMed Central

Li, Yingkui; Liao, Jingjuan; Guo, Huadong; Liu, Zewen; Shen, Guozhuang

2014-01-01

Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia. PMID:25372787

Patterns and potential drivers of dramatic changes in Tibetan lakes, 1972-2010.

PubMed

Li, Yingkui; Liao, Jingjuan; Guo, Huadong; Liu, Zewen; Shen, Guozhuang

2014-01-01

Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia.

A review of the thermal sensitivity of the mechanics of vertebrate skeletal muscle.

PubMed

James, Rob S

2013-08-01

Environmental temperature varies spatially and temporally, affecting many aspects of an organism's biology. In ectotherms, variation in environmental temperature can cause parallel changes in skeletal muscle temperature, potentially leading to significant alterations in muscle performance. Endotherms can also undergo meaningful changes in skeletal muscle temperature that can affect muscle performance. Alterations in skeletal muscle temperature can affect contractile performance in both endotherms and ectotherms, changing the rates of force generation and relaxation, shortening velocity, and consequently mechanical power. Such alterations in the mechanical performance of skeletal muscle can in turn affect locomotory performance and behaviour. For instance, as temperature increases, a consequent improvement in limb muscle performance causes some lizard species to be more likely to flee from a potential predator. However, at lower temperatures, they are much more likely to stand their ground, show threatening displays and even bite. There is no consistent pattern in reported effects of temperature on skeletal muscle fatigue resistance. This review focuses on the effects of temperature variation on skeletal muscle performance in vertebrates, and investigates the thermal sensitivity of different mechanical measures of skeletal muscle performance. The plasticity of thermal sensitivity in skeletal muscle performance has been reviewed to investigate the extent to which individuals can acclimate to chronic changes in their thermal environment. The effects of thermal sensitivity of muscle performance are placed in a wider context by relating thermal sensitivity of skeletal muscle performance to aspects of vertebrate species distribution.

The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

2013-05-01

Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

Idiosyncratic Responses of High Arctic Plants to Changing Snow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rumpf, Sabine B.; Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Dullinger, Stefan; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made. PMID:24523859

Idiosyncratic responses of high Arctic plants to changing snow regimes.

PubMed

Rumpf, Sabine B; Semenchuk, Philipp R; Dullinger, Stefan; Cooper, Elisabeth J

2014-01-01

The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made.

Arctic Amplification and Potential Mid-Latitude Weather Linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.

2014-12-01

Increasing temperatures and other changes continued in the Arctic over the last decade, even though the rate of global warming has decreased in part due to a cool Pacific Ocean. Thus Arctic temperatures have increased at least 3 times the rate of mid-latitude temperatures. Credibility for persistent Arctic change comes from multiple indicators which are now available for multiple decades. Further, the spatial pattern of Arctic Amplification differs from patterns of natural variability. The role of the Arctic in the global climate system is based on multiple interacting feedbacks represented by these indicators as a causal basis for Arctic Amplification driven by modest global change. Many of these processes act on a regional basis and their non-linear interactions are not well captured by climate models. For example, future loss of sea ice due to increases in CO2 are demonstrated by these models but the rates of loss appear slow. It is reasonable to suspect that Arctic change which can produce the largest temperature anomalies on the planet and demonstrate recent extremes in the polar vortex could be linked to mid-latitude weather, especially as Arctic change will continue over the next decades. The meteorological community remains skeptical, however, in the sense of "not proven." Natural variability in chaotic atmospheric flow remains the main dynamic process, and it is difficult to determine whether Arctic forcing of a north-south linkage is emerging from the most recent period of Arctic change since 2007. Nonetheless, such a hypothesis is worthy of investigation, given the need to further understand Arctic dynamic atmospheric processes, and the potential for improving mid-latitude seasonal forecasts base on high-latitude forcing. Several AGU sessions and other forums over the next year (WWRP, IASC,CliC) address this issue, but the topic is not ready for a firm answer. The very level of controversy indicates the state of the science.

Beyond precipitation: physiographic gradients dictate the relative importance of environmental drivers on Savanna vegetation.

PubMed

Campo-Bescós, Miguel A; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kaplan, David A; Southworth, Jane; Zhu, Likai; Waylen, Peter R

2013-01-01

Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation<750 mm) to fire, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (strongest in tree-dominated regions with precipitation>950 mm). We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for further development and application of spatially explicit time series modeling to studies at the intersection of ecology and remote sensing.

Beyond Precipitation: Physiographic Gradients Dictate the Relative Importance of Environmental Drivers on Savanna Vegetation

PubMed Central

Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kaplan, David A.; Southworth, Jane; Zhu, Likai; Waylen, Peter R.

2013-01-01

Background Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation<750 mm) to fire, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (strongest in tree-dominated regions with precipitation>950 mm). Conclusions/Significance We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for further development and application of spatially explicit time series modeling to studies at the intersection of ecology and remote sensing. PMID:24023616

Paraspinal skin temperature patterns: an interexaminer and intraexaminer reliability study.

PubMed

Owens, Edward F; Hart, John F; Donofrio, Joseph J; Haralambous, Jason; Mierzejewski, Eric

2004-01-01

Paraspinal thermography is used by chiropractors as an aid in assessing the presence of vertebral subluxation. Few reliability studies have been carried out, with mixed results. Digital infrared scanning equipment is now available with location tracking that may enhance reproducibility. Digitized scans enable a computer-aided interpretation of thermographic patterns. To assess the ability of examiners to reproduce thermal patterns. Repeated measures with 2 examiners assessing the same patient on 2 occasions. Thirty asymptomatic students served as subjects. A TyTron C-3000 handheld thermographic scanner interfaced to a Microsoft Windows compatible personal computer was used for all recordings. Each examiner recorded 2 scans on each patient. It took an average of 3 minutes to complete all 4 scans. Data were exported to a spreadsheet for initial analysis, then SPSS was used for calculation of intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Since the starting and stopping points of scans were not always the same, care was taken to align scans visually, using well-distinguished peaks on the charts as guides. Scans were cropped to remove artifacts that might have occurred at the beginning and end of the scans. Intraexaminer and interexaminer ICCs were calculated. Skin temperatures ranged from 35.4 degrees C to 30.0 degrees C over all scans. The average temperatures changed little from the first to the last scans, indicating that subjects' overall skin temperatures were stable during the scanning procedure. Intraexaminer ICCs ranged from 0.953 to 0.984. The left and right channel data show slightly higher congruence than the Delta channel. The interexaminer reliability coefficients ranged from 0.918 to 0.975. Again, the Delta channel shows slightly less reliability, although the ICCs were quite high for all channels. Intraexaminer and interexaminer reliability of paraspinal thermal scans using the TyTron C-3000 were found to be very high, with ICC values between 0.91 and 0.98. Changes seen in thermal scans when properly done are most likely due to actual physiological changes rather than equipment error.

Inter-comparison of hydro-climatic regimes across northern catchments: Synchronicity, resistance and resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, S.K.; Tetzlaff, D.; Seibert, J.; Soulsby, C.; Buttle, J.; Laudon, H.; McDonnell, J.; McGuire, K.; Caissie, D.; Shanley, J.; Kennedy, M.; Devito, K.; Pomeroy, J.W.

2010-01-01

The higher mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter-catchment comparison program, North-Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North-Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify 'types' of hydro-climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10-year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter-annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual-scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall-runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preparation and Analysis of Platinum Thin Films for High Temperature Sensor Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wrbanek, John D.; Laster, Kimala L. H.

2005-01-01

A study has been made of platinum thin films for application as high temperature resistive sensors. To support NASA Glenn Research Center s high temperature thin film sensor effort, a magnetron sputtering system was installed recently in the GRC Microsystems Fabrication Clean Room Facility. Several samples of platinum films were prepared using various system parameters to establish run conditions. These films were characterized with the intended application of being used as resistive sensing elements, either for temperature or strain measurement. The resistances of several patterned sensors were monitored to document the effect of changes in parameters of deposition and annealing. The parameters were optimized for uniformity and intrinsic strain. The evaporation of platinum via oxidation during annealing over 900 C was documented, and a model for the process developed. The film adhesion was explored on films annealed to 1000 C with various bondcoats on fused quartz and alumina. From this compiled data, a list of optimal parameters and characteristics determined for patterned platinum thin films is given.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

PubMed

Holt, Rebecca E; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology.

Temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration of fine root litter in a temperate broad-leaved forest.

PubMed

Makita, Naoki; Kawamura, Ayumi

2015-01-01

The microbial decomposition respiration of plant litter generates a major CO2 efflux from terrestrial ecosystems that plays a critical role in the regulation of carbon cycling on regional and global scales. However, the respiration from root litter decomposition and its sensitivity to temperature changes are unclear in current models of carbon turnover in forest soils. Thus, we examined seasonal changes in the temperature sensitivity and decomposition rates of fine root litter of two diameter classes (0-0.5 and 0.5-2.0 mm) of Quercus serrata and Ilex pedunculosa in a deciduous broad-leaved forest. During the study period, fine root litter of both diameter classes and species decreased approximately exponentially over time. The Q10 values of microbial respiration rates of root litter for the two classes were 1.59-3.31 and 1.28-6.27 for Q. serrata and 1.36-6.31 and 1.65-5.86 for I. pedunculosa. A significant difference in Q10 was observed between the diameter classes, indicating that root diameter represents the initial substrate quality, which may determine the magnitude of Q10 value of microbial respiration. Changes in these Q10 values were related to seasonal soil temperature patterns; the values were higher in winter than in summer. Moreover, seasonal variations in Q10 were larger during the 2-year decomposition period than the 1-year period. These results showed that the Q10 values of fine root litter of 0-0.5 and 0.5-2.0 mm have been shown to increase with lower temperatures and with the higher recalcitrance pool of the decomposed substrate during 2 years of decomposition. Thus, the temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration in root litter showed distinct patterns according to the decay period and season because of the temperature acclimation and adaptation of the microbial decomposer communities in root litter.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

PubMed Central

Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology. PMID:27293671

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Obliquity-controlled soil moisture fluctuations recorded in Saharan dust deposits on Lanzarote (Canary Islands) during the last 180 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Suchodoletz, H.; Oberhänsli, H.; Hambach, U.; Zöller, L.; Fuchs, M.; Faust, D.

2009-04-01

On Lanzarote (Canary Islands), dust-borne sediments trapped in valleys dammed by volcanic material were investigated in order to reveal environmental changes during the Late Quaternary. Clay content and frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility are used as proxies of pedogenesis and trace back changes of palaeo-soil moisture during the last 180 ka, showing a pattern of generally enhanced soil moisture during glacials and stadials and more arid conditions during warm periods. These results are compared with proxies from local palaeoclimate studies, showing that there is a positive correlation with proxies of trade wind strength off NW Africa and sea surface temperatures in the NE-Atlantic, and an inverse correlation with the extent of mediterranean vegetation. Possible causes for the observed pattern include a glacial enhancement of precipitation from westerly cyclones, an occasional influence of the African summer monsoon and a relative humidity change triggered by fluctuating air temperatures. Although no clear differentiation between the influences of these factors is possible yet, it is clear that the first and the last one must have dominated during most of the time. These results are the first quasi continuous terrestrial data testifying to environmental changes in the NW African coastal area for the last 180 ka, and complement the abundant data derived from marine cores of the region. The results from this study demonstrate a dominant influence of high latitude dynamics in this area intermediated by North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. This influence is supported by a negative correlation of our proxies with the orbital obliquity cycle, including a time lag of about 10 ka similar to that recorded from North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado.

PubMed

Calder, W John; Shuman, Bryan

2017-10-01

Ecosystems may shift abruptly when the effects of climate change and disturbance interact, and landscapes with regularly patterned vegetation may be especially vulnerable to abrupt shifts. Here we use a fossil pollen record from a regularly patterned ribbon forest (alternating bands of forests and meadows) in Colorado to examine whether past changes in wildfire and climate produced abrupt vegetation shifts. Comparing the percentages of conifer pollen with sedimentary δ 18 O data (interpreted as an indicator of temperature or snow accumulation) indicates a first-order linear relationship between vegetation composition and climate change with no detectable lags over the past 2,500 yr (r = 0.55, P < 0.001). Additionally, however, we find that the vegetation changed abruptly within a century of extensive wildfires, which were recognized in a previous study to have burned approximately 80% of the surrounding 1,000 km 2 landscape 1,000 yr ago when temperatures rose ~0.5°C. The vegetation change was larger than expected from the effects of climate change alone. Pollen assemblages changed from a composition associated with closed subalpine forests to one similar to modern ribbon forests. Fossil pollen assemblages then remained like those from modern ribbon forests for the following ~1,000 yr, providing a clear example of how extensive disturbances can trigger persistent new vegetation states and alter how vegetation responds to climate. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Horton, Daniel E

2018-05-26

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Osland, Michael J.; Reef, Ruth; Ball, Marilyn C.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Niinemets, Ülo

2016-01-01

Mangrove forests grow on saline, periodically flooded soils of the tropical and subtropical coasts. The tree species that comprise the mangrove are halophytes that have suites of traits that confer differing levels of tolerance of salinity, aridity, inundation and extremes of temperature. Here we review how climate change and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will influence mangrove forests. Tolerance of salinity and inundation in mangroves is associated with the efficient use of water for photosynthetic carbon gain which unpins anticipated gains in productivity with increasing levels of CO2. We review evidence of increases in productivity with increasing CO2, finding that enhancements in growth appear to be similar to trees in non-mangrove habitats and that gains in productivity with elevated CO2 are likely due to changes in biomass allocation. High levels of trait plasticity are observed in some mangrove species, which potentially facilitates their responses to climate change. Trait plasticity is associated with broad tolerance of salinity, aridity, low temperatures and nutrient availability. Because low temperatures and aridity place strong limits on mangrove growth at the edge of their current distribution, increasing temperatures over time and changing rainfall patterns are likely to have an important influence on the distribution of mangroves. We provide a global analysis based on plant traits and IPCC scenarios of changing temperature and aridity that indicates substantial global potential for mangrove expansion.

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001–2015

PubMed Central

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-01-01

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as ‘the Roof of the World’ and ‘Asia’s water towers’, exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001–2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc. PMID:28742066

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001-2015.

PubMed

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-07-25

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km 2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as 'the Roof of the World' and 'Asia's water towers', exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001-2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km 2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc.

The impact of temperature and relative humidity on spatiotemporal patterns of infant bronchiolitis epidemics in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Sloan, Chantel; Heaton, Matthew; Kang, Sorah; Berrett, Candace; Wu, Pingsheng; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Sicignano, Nicholas; Evans, Amber; Lee, Rees; Hartert, Tina

2017-05-01

Infant bronchiolitis is primarily due to infection by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is highly seasonal. The goal of the study is to understand how circulation of RSV is impacted by fluctuations in temperature and humidity in order to inform prevention efforts. Using data from the Military Health System (MHS) Data Repository (MDR), we calculated rates of infant bronchiolitis for the contiguous US from July 2004 to June 2013. Monthly temperature and relative humidity were extracted from the National Climate Data Center. Using a spatiotemporal generalized linear model for binomial data, we estimated bronchiolitis rates and the effects of temperature and relative humidity while allowing them to vary over location and time. Our results indicate a seasonal pattern that begins in the Southeast during November or December, then spreading in a Northwest direction. The relationships of temperature and humidity were spatially heterogeneous, and we find that climate can partially account for early onset or longer epidemic duration. Small changes in climate may be associated with larger fluctuations in epidemic duration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Dunham, Jason B.; Heck, Michael; Schultz, Luke; Hockman-Wert, David

2017-01-01

Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, we took advantage of existing stream temperature datasets in dryland streams in the northwest Great Basin desert, USA, to extract critical information on climate-sensitive patterns of flow permanence. We used a signal detection technique, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), to extract information from daily time series of stream temperature to diagnose patterns of stream drying. Specifically, we applied HMMs to time series of daily standard deviation (SD) of stream temperature (i.e., dry stream channels typically display highly variable daily temperature records compared to wet stream channels) between April and August (2015–2016). We used information from paired stream and air temperature data loggers as well as co-located stream temperature data loggers with electrical resistors as confirmatory sources of the timing of stream drying. We expanded our approach to an entire stream network to illustrate the utility of the method to detect patterns of flow permanence over a broader spatial extent. We successfully identified and separated signals characteristic of wet and dry stream conditions and their shifts over time. Most of our study sites within the entire stream network exhibited a single state over the entire season (80%), but a portion of them showed one or more shifts among states (17%). We provide recommendations to use this approach based on a series of simple steps. Our findings illustrate a successful method that can be used to rigorously quantify flow permanence regimes in streams using existing records of stream temperature.

Characterizing hydroclimatic variability in tributaries of the Upper Colorado River Basin—WY1911-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matter, Margaret A.; Garcia, Luis A.; Fontane, Darrell G.; Bledsoe, Brian

2010-01-01

SummaryMountain snowpack is the main source of water in the semi-arid Colorado River Basin (CRB), and while the demands for water are increasing, competing and often conflicting, the supply is limited and has become increasingly variable over the 20th Century. Greater variability is believed to contribute to lower accuracy in water supply forecasts, plus greater variability violates the assumption of stationarity, a fundamental assumption of many methods used in water resources engineering planning, design and management. Thus, it is essential to understand the underpinnings of hydroclimatic variability in order to accurately predict effects of climate changes and effectively meet future water supply challenges. A new methodology was applied to characterized time series of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow (i.e., historic and reconstructed undepleted flows) according to the three climate regimes that occurred in CRB during the 20th Century. Results for two tributaries in the Upper CRB show that hydroclimatic variability is more deterministic than previously thought because it entails complementary temperature and precipitation patterns associated with wetter or drier conditions on climate regime and annual scales. Complementary temperature and precipitation patterns characterize climate regime type (e.g., cool/wet and warm/dry), and the patterns entail increasing or decreasing temperatures and changes in magnitude and timing of precipitation according to the climate regime type. Accompanying each climate regime on annual scales are complementary temperature ( T) and precipitation ( P) patterns that are associated with upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield (i.e., total annual flow volume at a streamflow gauge). Annual complementary T and P patterns establish by fall, are detectable as early as September, persist to early spring, are related to the relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield, are unique to climate regime type, and are specific to each river basin. Thus, while most of the water supply in the Upper CRB originates from winter snowpack, statistically significant indictors of relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and runoff are evident in the fall, well before appreciable snow accumulation. Results of this study suggest strategies that may integrated into existing forecast methods to potentially improve forecast accuracy and advance lead time by as much as six months (i.e., from April 1 to October 1 of the previous year). These techniques also have applications in downscaling climate models and in river restoration and management.

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.

PubMed

Roy, David B; Oliver, Tom H; Botham, Marc S; Beckmann, Bjorn; Brereton, Tom; Dennis, Roger L H; Harrower, Colin; Phillimore, Albert B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2015-09-01

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mapping Sleeping Bees within Their Nest: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Worker Honey Bee Sleep

PubMed Central

Klein, Barrett Anthony; Stiegler, Martin; Klein, Arno; Tautz, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Patterns of behavior within societies have long been visualized and interpreted using maps. Mapping the occurrence of sleep across individuals within a society could offer clues as to functional aspects of sleep. In spite of this, a detailed spatial analysis of sleep has never been conducted on an invertebrate society. We introduce the concept of mapping sleep across an insect society, and provide an empirical example, mapping sleep patterns within colonies of European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Honey bees face variables such as temperature and position of resources within their colony's nest that may impact their sleep. We mapped sleep behavior and temperature of worker bees and produced maps of their nest's comb contents as the colony grew and contents changed. By following marked bees, we discovered that individuals slept in many locations, but bees of different worker castes slept in different areas of the nest relative to position of the brood and surrounding temperature. Older worker bees generally slept outside cells, closer to the perimeter of the nest, in colder regions, and away from uncapped brood. Younger worker bees generally slept inside cells and closer to the center of the nest, and spent more time asleep than awake when surrounded by uncapped brood. The average surface temperature of sleeping foragers was lower than the surface temperature of their surroundings, offering a possible indicator of sleep for this caste. We propose mechanisms that could generate caste-dependent sleep patterns and discuss functional significance of these patterns. PMID:25029445

Evolution of stationary wave patterns in mesospheric water vapor due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirhan Barı, Deniz; Gabriel, Axel; Sezginer Ünal, Yurdanur

2016-07-01

The variability in the observed stationary wave patterns of the mesospheric water vapor (H2O) is investigated using CMIP5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projections. The change in the vertical and meridional wave structure at northern mid- and polar latitudes associated to the zonal and meridional eddy heat fluxes is discussed by analyzing the advection of H2O due to residual wind components. The alteration in the characteristics of the stationary wave-1 pattern of the lower mesospheric H2O (up to about 75km) related to change in the projected radiative forcing is observed for the years from 2006 to 2100. Additionally the remarkable effect of the increase in global temperature on the zonal asymmetries in small-scale transient waves and parameterized gravity waves, which largely contribute to the observed stationary wave patterns of H2O in the upper mesosphere, is analyzed. For validation purposes, the derived stratospheric patterns are verified against the eddy heat fluxes and residual advection terms derived from Aura/MLS satellite data between 2004-2010 and the reference period of the CMIP5 MPI dataset (1976-2005) providing confidence in the applied method.