Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Formation mechanism and mechanics of dip-pen nanolithography using molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Wu, Cheng-Da; Fang, Te-Hua; Lin, Jen-Fin

2010-03-02

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanisms of molecular transference, pattern formation, and mechanical behavior in the dip-pen nanolithography (DPN) process. The effects of deposition temperature were studied using molecular trajectories, the meniscus characteristic, surface absorbed energy, and pattern formation analysis. At the first transferred stage (at the initial indentation depth), the conformation of SAM molecules lies almost on the substrate surface. The molecules start to stand on the substrate due to the pull and drag forces at the second transferred stage (after the tip is pulled up). According to the absorbed energy behavior, the second transferred stage has larger transferred amounts and the transfer rate is strongly related to temperature. When molecules were deposited at low temperature (e.g., room temperature), the pattern shape was more highly concentrated. The pattern shape at high temperatures expanded and the area increased because of good molecular diffusion.

Solar Eclipse Effect on Shelter Air Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Turner, R. W.; Prusa, J.; Bitzer, R. J.; Finley, S. V.

1996-01-01

Decreases in shelter temperature during eclipse events were quantified on the basis of observations, numerical model simulations, and complementary conceptual evaluations. Observations for the annular eclipse on 10 May 1994 over the United States are presented, and these provide insights into the temporal and spatial changes in the shelter temperature. The observations indicated near-surface temperature drops of as much as 6 C. Numerical model simulations for this eclipse event, which provide a complementary evaluation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature drops, predict similar decreases. Interrelationships between the temperature drop, degree of solar irradiance reduction, and timing of the peak eclipse are also evaluated for late spring, summer, and winter sun conditions. These simulations suggest that for total eclipses the drops in shelter temperature in midlatitudes can be as high as 7 C for a spring morning eclipse.

Crossover in growth laws for phase-separating binary fluids: molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Ahmad, Shaista; Das, Subir K; Puri, Sanjay

2012-03-01

Pattern and dynamics during phase separation in a symmetrical binary (A+B) Lennard-Jones fluid are studied via molecular dynamics simulations after quenching homogeneously mixed critical (50:50) systems to temperatures below the critical one. The morphology of the domains, rich in A or B particles, is observed to be bicontinuous. The early-time growth of the average domain size is found to be consistent with the Lifshitz-Slyozov law for diffusive domain coarsening. After a characteristic time, dependent on the temperature, we find a clear crossover to an extended viscous hydrodynamic regime where the domains grow linearly with time. Pattern formation in the present system is compared with that in solid binary mixtures, as a function of temperature. Important results for the finite-size and temperature effects on the small-wave-vector behavior of the scattering function are also presented.

Evaluation of WRF Model Against Satellite and Field Measurements During ARM March 2000 IOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

2003-12-01

Meso-scale WRF model is employed to simulate the organization of clouds related with the cyclogenesis occurred during March 1-4, 2000 over ARM SGP CART site. Qualitative comparisons of simulated clouds with GOES8 satellite images show that the WRF model can capture the main features of clouds related with the cyclogenesis. The simulated precipitation patterns also match the Radar reflectivity images well. Further evaluation of the simulated features on GCM grid-scale is conducted against ARM field measurements. The evaluation shows that the evolutions of the simulated state fields such as temperature and moisture, the simulated wind fields and the derived large-scale temperature and moisture tendencies closely follow the observed patterns. These results encourages us to use meso-scale WRF model as a tool to verify the performance of GCMs in simulating cloud feedback processes related with the frontal clouds such that we can test and validate the current cloud parameterizations in climate models, and make possible improvements to different components of current cloud parameterizations in GCMs.

Temperature distribution analysis of tissue water vaporization during microwave ablation: experiments and simulations.

PubMed

Ai, Haiming; Wu, Shuicai; Gao, Hongjian; Zhao, Lei; Yang, Chunlan; Zeng, Yi

2012-01-01

The temperature distribution in the region near a microwave antenna is a critical factor that affects the entire temperature field during microwave ablation of tissue. It is challenging to predict this distribution precisely, because the temperature in the near-antenna region varies greatly. The effects of water vaporisation and subsequent tissue carbonisation in an ex vivo porcine liver were therefore studied experimentally and in simulations. The enthalpy and high-temperature specific absorption rate (SAR) of liver tissues were calculated and incorporated into the simulation process. The accuracy of predictions for near-field temperatures in our simulations has reached the level where the average maximum error is less than 5°C. In addition, a modified thermal model that accounts for water vaporisation and the change in the SAR distribution pattern is proposed and validated with experiment. The results from this study may be useful in the clinical practice of microwave ablation and can be applied to predict the temperature field in surgical planning.

Simulating natural light and temperature cycles in the laboratory reveals differential effects on activity/rest rhythm of four Drosophilids.

PubMed

Prabhakaran, Priya M; Sheeba, Vasu

2014-10-01

Recent studies under semi-natural conditions have revealed various unique features of activity/rest rhythms in Drosophilids that differ from those under standard laboratory conditions. An additional afternoon peak (A-peak) has been reported for Drosophila melanogaster and another species D. malerkotliana while D. ananassae exhibited mostly unimodal diurnal activity. To tease apart the role of light and temperature in mediating these species-specific behaviours of four Drosophilid species D. melanogaster, D. malerkotliana, D. ananassae, and Zaprionus indianus we simulated gradual natural light and/or temperature cycles conditions in laboratory. The pattern observed under semi-natural conditions could be reproduced in the laboratory for all the species under a variety of simulated conditions. D. melanogaster and D. malerkotliana showed similar patterns where as D. ananassae consistently exhibited predominant morning activity under almost all regimes. Z. indianus showed clearly rhythmic activity mostly when temperature cycles were provided. We find that gradually changing light intensities reaching a sufficiently high peak value can elicit A-peak in D. melanogaster, D. malerkotliana, and D. ananassae even at mild ambient temperature. Furthermore, we show that high mid-day temperature could induce A-peak in all species even under constant light conditions suggesting that this A-peak is likely to be a stress response.

Amplified Late Pliocene terrestrial warmth in northern high latitudes from greater radiative forcing and closed Arctic Ocean gateways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Ran; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Fletcher, Tamara L.; Tabor, Clay R.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Brady, Esther C.

2017-05-01

Proxy reconstructions of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) suggest terrestrial temperatures were much warmer in the northern high latitudes (55°-90°N, referred to as NHL) than present-day. Climate models participating in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (PlioMIP1) tend to underestimate this warmth. For instance, the underestimate is ∼10 °C on average across NHL and up to 17 °C in the Canadian Arctic region in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Here, we explore potential mPWP climate forcings that might contribute to this mPWP mismatch. We carry out seven experiments to assess terrestrial temperature responses to Pliocene Arctic gateway closure, variations in CO2 level, and orbital forcing at millennial time scale. To better compare the full range of simulated terrestrial temperatures with sparse proxy data, we introduce a pattern recognition technique that simplifies the model surface temperatures to a few representative patterns that can be validate with the limited terrestrial proxy data. The pattern recognition technique reveals two prominent features of simulated Pliocene surface temperature responses. First, distinctive patterns of amplified warming occur in the NHL, which can be explained by lowered surface elevation of Greenland, pattern and amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and changing strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, patterns of surface temperature response are similar among experiments with different forcing mechanisms. This similarity is due to strong feedbacks from responses in surface albedo and troposphere water vapor content to sea ice changes, which overwhelm distinctions in forcings from changes in insolation, CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateway closure. By comparing CCSM4 simulations with proxy records, we demonstrate that both model and proxy records show similar patterns of mPWP NHL terrestrial warmth, but the model underestimates the magnitude. High insolation, greater CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateways closure each contributes to reduce the underestimate by enhancing the Arctic warmth of 1-2 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering proxy NHL warmth in the context of Pliocene Arctic gateway changes, and variations in insolation and CO2 forcing.

Numerical simulation study on impact of slope on smoke temperature distribution and smoke spread pattern in spiral tunnel fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Xie, Wei

2017-04-01

The spiral tunnel arises as a new form of tunnel, with great differences in fire development pattern when compared with traditional straight line tunnel, this paper takes method of numerical simulation, based on computation fluid dynamics theory and fire-turbulence numerical simulation theory, establishing a full-scale spiral tunnel model, and applies CFX simulation software to research full-scale spiral tunnel fire and its ventilation condition. The results indicate that with increasing tunnel slope, high temperature area gradually extends to downstream area, high temperature mainly distributes near fire source area, and symmetrically distributes among the fire center point; With increasing tunnel slope, the highest temperature underneath tunnel arch rises first followed by a downward trend and then rising again, which strengthens chimney effect, and promotes more fresh cold air flow into the tunnel, suppressing fire smoke backflow and simultaneously accelerating fire smoke spread to downstream area; Fire plume presents vertical slender shape with 1% or 3% tunnel slope, and burning flame hits tunnel arch and then extending all around into the ceiling jet flow, when tunnel slope increases to 5% or 7%, fire plume cross section grows bigger and wider with unstable burning flame swaying in all directions, integrally incline to fire downstream.

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

2018-01-01

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

The influence of extreme seasonality on lake temperatures during Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Stranne, C.; Wohlfarth, B.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cold reversal ( 12.9 to 11.7 kyr BP) is the last abrupt climate change event interrupting the warming of the late deglaciation right before the onset of the Holocene. The spatial pattern of the cooling event seen in proxy data is largely consistent with those of climate simulations and suggests that the Younger Dryas is linked to a significant slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, despite the strong ocean cooling of up to 6 K along the European coasts and a significant southward extension of sea-ice during the Younger Dryas, different climate simulations do not reproduce summer cooling over Europe as seen in July lake temperature reconstructions based on chironomids. Aquatic plants used as climate indicator species do in contrast not show such a strong cooling and are more in line with climate simulations. To investigate this discrepancy, we use two numerical lake models driven by high resolution climate model output for the Younger Dryas and the preceding warm period of the late Alleröd ( 13 kyr BP). First, we investigate to which extent simulated lake temperatures in summer still reflect atmospheric summer temperatures despite a strong increase in seasonality during Younger Dryas. Because the (paleo-)lake depths are usually not well known, we use the lake models to test their sensitivity to changes in seasonality as a function of depth. Second, we artificially change the temperatures used as forcing for the lake models to investigate how cold air temperatures would need to be to match the up to 5 K July cooling suggested by chironomids. The results show that more care needs to be taken about the location and (paleo-)lake depths when comparing lake temperatures with simulated air temperatures. The simulated atmospheric circulation patterns during summer appears to be rather insensitive to the Younger Dryas cooling owing to the dominance of high atmospheric pressure over the Euro-Atlantic region. This would support a recent study linking extremely cold North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies to severe heat waves in Europe since the 1980s (Duchez et al. 2016, ERL, Vol. 11, No. 7).

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

A new prospect in magnetic nanoparticle-based cancer therapy: Taking credit from mathematical tissue-mimicking phantom brain models.

PubMed

Saeedi, Mostafa; Vahidi, Omid; Goodarzi, Vahabodin; Saeb, Mohammad Reza; Izadi, Leila; Mozafari, Masoud

2017-11-01

Distribution patterns/performance of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) was visualized by computer simulation and experimental validation on agarose gel tissue-mimicking phantom (AGTMP) models. The geometry of a complex three-dimensional mathematical phantom model of a cancer tumor was examined by tomography imaging. The capability of mathematical model to predict distribution patterns/performance in AGTMP model was captured. The temperature profile vs. hyperthermia duration was obtained by solving bio-heat equations for four different MNPs distribution patterns and correlated with cell death rate. The outcomes indicated that bio-heat model was able to predict temperature profile throughout the tissue model with a reasonable precision, to be applied for complex tissue geometries. The simulation results on the cancer tumor model shed light on the effectiveness of the studied parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cammarano, Davide; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Wallach, Daniel; Martre, Pierre; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Ruane, Alex C.;

Alloy Shrinkage factors for the investment casting of 17-4PH stainless steel parts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sabau, Adrian S; Porter, Wallace D

2008-01-01

In this study, the alloy shrinkage factors were obtained for the investment casting of 17-4PH stainless steel parts. For the investment casting process, unfilled wax and fused silica with a zircon prime coat were used for patterns and shell molds, respectively. Dimensions of the die tooling, wax pattern, and casting were measured using a Coordinate Measurement Machine. For all the properties, the experimental data available in the literature did not cover the entire temperature range necessary for process simulation. A comparison between the predicted material property data measured property data is made. It was found that most material properties weremore » accurately predicted over the most of the temperature range of the process. Several assumptions were made in order to obtain a complete set of mechanical property data at high temperatures. Thermal expansion measurements for the 17-4PH alloy were conducted at heating and cooling. As a function of temperature, the thermal expansion for both the alloy and shell mold materials showed different evolution at heating and cooling. Thus, one generic simulation were performed with thermal expansion obtained at heating and another one with thermal expansion obtained at cooling. The alloy dimensions were obtained from numerical simulation results of solidification, heat transfer, and deformation phenomena. As compared with experimental results, the numerical simulation results for the shrinkage factors were slightly over-predicted.« less

Alloy Shrinkage Factors for the Investment Casting of 17-4PH Stainless Steel Parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabau, Adrian S.; Porter, Wallace D.

2008-04-01

In this study, alloy shrinkage factors were obtained for the investment casting of 17-4PH stainless steel parts. For the investment casting process, unfilled wax and fused silica with a zircon prime coat were used for patterns and shell molds, respectively. The dimensions of the die tooling, wax pattern, and casting were measured using a coordinate measurement machine (CMM). For all the properties, the experimental data available in the literature did not cover the entire temperature range necessary for process simulation. A comparison between the predicted material property data and measured property data is made. It was found that most material properties were accurately predicted over most of the temperature range of the process. Several assumptions were made, in order to obtain a complete set of mechanical property data at high temperatures. Thermal expansion measurements for the 17-4PH alloy were conducted during heating and cooling. As a function of temperature, the thermal expansion for both the alloy and shell mold materials showed a different evolution on heating and cooling. Thus, one generic simulation was performed with thermal expansion obtained on heating, and another one was performed with thermal expansion obtained on cooling. The alloy dimensions were obtained from the numerical simulation results of the solidification, heat transfer, and deformation phenomena. As compared with experimental results, the numerical simulation results for the shrinkage factors were slightly overpredicted.

Laser induced heating of coated carbon steel sheets: Consideration of melting and Marangoni flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuja, S. Z.; Yilbas, B. S.

2013-04-01

Laser induced melting of coated carbon steel workpiece is simulated. The coating materials include tungsten carbide, alumina, and boron are incorporated in the simulations. The coating thickness is kept constant at 7.5 μm in the analysis. The enthalpy porosity method is used to account for the phase change in the irradiated region. The study is extended to include the influence of laser intensity transverse mode pattern (β) on the resulting melting characteristics. It is found that peak temperature predicted at the surface is higher for alumina and boron coatings than that of tungsten carbide coating. The influence of the laser intensity transverse mode pattern on the melting characteristics is considerable. Surface temperature predicted agrees with the thermocouple data.

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.; ...

2017-01-31

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Model-based feasibility assessment and evaluation of prostate hyperthermia with a commercial MR-guided endorectal HIFU ablation array

PubMed Central

Salgaonkar, Vasant A.; Prakash, Punit; Rieke, Viola; Ozhinsky, Eugene; Plata, Juan; Kurhanewicz, John; Hsu, I-C. (Joe); Diederich, Chris J.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Feasibility of targeted and volumetric hyperthermia (40–45 °C) delivery to the prostate with a commercial MR-guided endorectal ultrasound phased array system, designed specifically for thermal ablation and approved for ablation trials (ExAblate 2100, Insightec Ltd.), was assessed through computer simulations and tissue-equivalent phantom experiments with the intention of fast clinical translation for targeted hyperthermia in conjunction with radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Methods: The simulations included a 3D finite element method based biothermal model, and acoustic field calculations for the ExAblate ERUS phased array (2.3 MHz, 2.3 × 4.0 cm2, ∼1000 channels) using the rectangular radiator method. Array beamforming strategies were investigated to deliver protracted, continuous-wave hyperthermia to focal prostate cancer targets identified from representative patient cases. Constraints on power densities, sonication durations and switching speeds imposed by ExAblate hardware and software were incorporated in the models. Preliminary experiments included beamformed sonications in tissue mimicking phantoms under MR temperature monitoring at 3 T (GE Discovery MR750W). Results: Acoustic intensities considered during simulation were limited to ensure mild hyperthermia (Tmax < 45 °C) and fail-safe operation of the ExAblate array (spatial and time averaged acoustic intensity ISATA < 3.4 W/cm2). Tissue volumes with therapeutic temperature levels (T > 41 °C) were estimated. Numerical simulations indicated that T > 41 °C was calculated in 13–23 cm3 volumes for sonications with planar or diverging beam patterns at 0.9–1.2 W/cm2, in 4.5–5.8 cm3 volumes for simultaneous multipoint focus beam patterns at ∼0.7 W/cm2, and in ∼6.0 cm3 for curvilinear (cylindrical) beam patterns at 0.75 W/cm2. Focused heating patterns may be practical for treating focal disease in a single posterior quadrant of the prostate and diffused heating patterns may be useful for heating quadrants, hemigland volumes or even bilateral targets. Treatable volumes may be limited by pubic bone heating. Therapeutic temperatures were estimated for a range of physiological parameters, sonication duty cycles and rectal cooling. Hyperthermia specific phasing patterns were implemented on the ExAblate prostate array and continuous-wave sonications (∼0.88 W/cm2, 15 min) were performed in tissue-mimicking material with real-time MR-based temperature imaging (PRFS imaging at 3.0 T). Shapes of heating patterns observed during experiments were consistent with simulations. Conclusions: The ExAblate 2100, designed specifically for thermal ablation, can be controlled for delivering continuous hyperthermia in prostate while working within operational constraints. PMID:24593742

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Firefighter exercise protocols conducted in an environmental chamber: developing a laboratory-based simulated firefighting protocol.

PubMed

Ensari, Ipek; Motl, Robert W; Klaren, Rachel E; Fernhall, Bo; Smith, Denise L; Horn, Gavin P

2017-05-01

A standard exercise protocol that allows comparisons across various ergonomic studies would be of great value for researchers investigating the physical and physiological strains of firefighting and possible interventions for reducing the demands. We compared the pattern of cardiorespiratory changes from 21 firefighters during simulated firefighting activities using a newly developed firefighting activity station (FAS) and treadmill walking both performed within an identical laboratory setting. Data on cardiorespiratory parameters and core temperature were collected continuously using a portable metabolic unit and a wireless ingestible temperature probe. Repeated measures ANOVA indicated distinct patterns of change in cardiorespiratory parameters and heart rate between conditions. The pattern consisted of alternating periods of peaks and nadirs in the FAS that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to live fire activities, whereas the same parameters increased logarithmically in the treadmill condition. Core temperature increased in a similarly for both conditions, although more rapidly in the FAS. Practitioner Summary: The firefighting activity station (FAS) yields a pattern of cardiorespiratory responses qualitatively and quantitatively similar to live fire activities, significantly different than treadmill walking. The FAS can be performed in a laboratory/clinic, providing a potentially standardised protocol for testing interventions to improve health and safety and conducting return to duty decisions.

Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane; Gupta, Mukund; Bandoro, Justin; Santer, Benjamin; Fu, Qiang; Lin, Pu; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Doug; Mills, Michael

2017-08-01

Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979-2000) and the early 21st (2000-2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., "mirrored") patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000-2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan using the PRECIS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xiong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2018-02-01

In this study, dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan are developed through the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. It can resolve detailed features within GCM grids such as topography, clouds, and land use in Saskatchewan. The PRECIS model is employed to carry out ensemble simulations for projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan. Temperature and precipitation variables at 14 weather stations for the baseline period are first extracted from each model run. Ranges of simulated temperature and precipitation variables are then obtained through combination of maximum and minimum values calculated from the five ensemble runs. The performance of PRECIS ensemble simulations can be evaluated through checking if observations of current temperature at each weather station are within the simulated range. Future climate projections are analyzed over three time slices (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) to help understand the plausible changes in temperature and precipitation over Saskatchewan in response to global warming. The evaluation results show that the PRECIS ensemble simulations perform very well in terms of capturing the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation variables. The results of future climate projections over three time slices indicate that there will be an obvious warming trend from the 2030s, to the 2050s, and the 2080s over Saskatchewan. The projected changes of mean temperature over the whole Saskatchewan area is [0, 2] °C in the 2030s at 10th percentile, [2, 5.5] °C in the 2050s at 50th percentile, and [3, 10] °C in the 2090s at 90th percentile. There are no significant changes in the spatial patterns of the projected total precipitation from the 2030s to the end of this century. The minimum change of the projected total precipitation over the whole Province of Saskatchewan is most likely to be -1.3% in the 2030s, and -0.2% in the 2050s, while the minimum value would be -2.1% to the end of this century at 50th percentile.

The influence of tissue layering on microwave thermographic measurements.

PubMed

Hawley, M S; Conway, J; Anderson, A P; Cudd, P A

1988-01-01

Non-invasive thermal imaging and temperature measurement by microwave radiometry has been investigated for medical diagnostic applications and monitoring hyperthermia treatment of cancer, in the context of heterogeneous body structure. The temperature measured by a radiometer is a function of the emission and propagation of microwaves in tissue and the receiving characteristics of the radiometric probe. Propagation of microwaves in lossy media was analysed by a spectral diffraction approach. Extension of this technique via a cascade transmission line model provides an efficient algorithm for predicting the field patterns of aperture antennas contacting multi-layered tissue. A coherent radiative transfer analysis was used to relate the field pattern of a radiating antenna to its receiving characteristics when used as a radiometer probe, leading to a method for simulating radiometric data. Measurements and simulations were used to assess the effect of overlying fat layers upon radiometer response to temperature hot spots in muscle-type media. Results suggest that dielectric layering in tissue greatly influences measured temperatures and should be accounted for in the interpretation of radiometric data.

Study of sputtered ZnO modified by Direct Laser Interference Patterning: Structural characterization and temperature simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parellada-Monreal, L.; Castro-Hurtado, I.; Martínez-Calderón, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Olaizola, S. M.; Gamarra, D.; Lozano, J.; Mandayo, G. G.

2018-05-01

ZnO thin film sputtered on alumina substrate is processed by Direct Laser Interference Patterning (DLIP). The heat transfer equation has been simulated for interference patterns with a period of 730 nm and two different fluences (85 mJ/cm2 and 165 mJ/cm2). A thermal threshold of 900 K, where crystal modification occurs has been calculated, indicating a lateral and depth processing around 173 nm and 140 nm, respectively. The experimentally reproduced samples have been analyzed from the structural and composition point of view and compared to conventional thermal treatments at three different temperatures (600 °C, 700 °C and 800 °C). Promising properties have been observed for the laser treated samples, such as low influence on the thin film/substrate interface, an improvement of the crystallographic structure, as well as a decrease of the oxygen content from O/Zn = 2.10 to 1.38 for the highest fluence, getting closer to the stoichiometry. The DLIP characteristics could be suitable for the replacement of annealing process in the case of substrates that cannot achieve high temperatures as most of flexible substrates.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

NAO and its relationship with the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofan; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Liu, Ting

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most prominent teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and has recently been found to be both an internal source and useful predictor of the multidecadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT). In this study, we examine how well the variability of the NAO and NHT are reproduced in historical simulations generated by the 40 models that constitute Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). All of the models are able to capture the basic characteristics of the interannual NAO pattern reasonably well, whereas the simulated decadal NAO patterns show less consistency with the observations. The NAO fluctuations over multidecadal time scales are underestimated by almost all models. Regarding the NHT multidecadal variability, the models generally represent the externally forced variations well but tend to underestimate the internal NHT. With respect to the performance of the models in reproducing the NAO-NHT relationship, 14 models capture the observed decadal lead of the NAO, and model discrepancies in the representation of this linkage are derived mainly from their different interpretation of the underlying physical processes associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This study suggests that one way to improve the simulation of the multidecadal variability of the internal NHT lies in better simulation of the multidecadal variability of the NAO and its delayed effect on the NHT variability via slow ocean processes.

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

Impact of Amazon deforestation on climate simulations using the NCAR CCM2/BATS model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

Model validation and results are briefly presented for a simulation of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. This initial study is made using assumptions regarding deforestation similar to those in earlier studies with several versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) couples to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The model used is a revised version of the NCAR CCM Version 2 coupled to BATS Version 1e. This paper discusses the portion of validation dealing with the distribution of precipitation; the simulation displays very good agreement with observed rainfall rates for the austral summer. Preliminary results from an 8-year simulation ofmore » deforestation are similar to that of previous studies. Annual precipitation and evaporation are reduced, while surface air temperatures show a slight increase. A substantial bimodal pattern appears in the results, with the Amazon decrease of precipitation and temperature increase accompanied by changes in the opposite sign to the southeast of the Amazon. Similar patterns have occurred in other studies, but not always in exactly the same locations. Evidently, how much of the region of rainfall increase occurs in the deforested area over the Amazon strongly affects the inferred statistics. It is likely that this pattern depends on the model control climatology and possibly other features. 16 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.« less

A numerical study of diurnally varying surface temperature on flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-03-01

The impacts of the diurnal variation of surface temperature on street canyon flow pattern and pollutant dispersion are investigated based on a two-dimensional street canyon model under different thermal stratifications. Uneven distributed street temperature conditions and a user-defined wall function representing the heat transfer between the air and the street canyon are integrated into the current numerical model. The prediction accuracy of this model is successfully validated against a published wind tunnel experiment. Then, a series of numerical simulations representing four time scenarios (Morning, Afternoon, Noon and Night) are performed at different Bulk Richardson number (Rb). The results demonstrate that uneven distributed street temperature conditions significantly alters street canyon flow structure and pollutant dispersion characteristics compared with conventional uniform street temperature assumption, especially for the morning event. Moreover, air flow patterns and pollutant dispersion are greatly influenced by diurnal variation of surface temperature under unstable stratification conditions. Furthermore, the residual pollutant in near-ground-zone decreases as Rb increases in noon, afternoon and night events under all studied stability conditions.

Numerical Temperature And Fluid-Flow Modelling For The Topographic Effects On Hydrothermal Circulation; A case study in Lucy Strike Vent Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erçetin, Engin; Düşünür Doǧan, Doǧa

2017-04-01

The aim of the study is to present a numerical temperature and fluid-flow modelling for the topographic effects on hydrothermal circulation. Bathymetry can create a major disturbance on fluid flow pattern. ANSYS Fluent Computational fluid dynamics software is used for simulations. Coupled fluid flow and temperature quations are solved using a 2-Dimensional control volume finite difference approach. Darcy's law is assumed to hold, the fluid is considered to be anormal Boussinesq incompressible fluid neglecting inertial effects. Several topographic models were simulated and both temperature and fluid flow calculations obtained for this study. The preliminary simulations examine the effect of a ingle bathymetric high on a single plume and the secondary study of simulations investigates the effect of multiple bathymetric highs on multiple plume. The simulations were also performed for the slow spreading Lucky Strike segment along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), one of the best studied regions along the MAR, where a 3.4 km deep magma chamber extending 6 km along-axis is found at its center. The Lucky Strike segment displays a transitional morphology between that of the FAMOUS - North FAMOUS segments, which are characterized by well-developed axial valleys typical of slow-spreading segments, and that of the Menez Gwen segment, characterized by an axial high at the segment center. Lucky Strike Segment hosts a central volcano and active vent field located at the segment center and thus constitutes an excellent case study to simulate the effects of bathymetry on fluid flow. Results demonstrate that bathymetric relief has an important influence on hydrothermal flow. Subsurface pressure alterations can be formed by bathymetric highs, for this reason, bathymetric relief ought to be considered while simulating hydrothermal circulation systems. Results of this study suggest the dominant effect of bathymetric highs on fluid flow pattern and Darcy velocities will be presented. Keywords: Hydrothermal Circulation, Lucky Strike, Bathymetry - Topography, Vent Location, Fluid Flow, Numerical Modelling

Molecular dynamics study of the growth of a metal nanoparticle array by solid dewetting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Yanhua; Li, Yanru; Nie, Tiaoping; Yu, Jun; Meng, Lijun

2018-03-01

We investigated the effect of the substrate and the ambient temperature on the growth of a metal nanoparticle array (nanoarray) on a solid-patterned substrate by dewetting a Au liquid film using an atomic simulation technique. The patterned substrate was constructed by introducing different interaction potentials for two atom groups ( C 1 and C 2) in the graphene-like substrate. The C 1 group had a stronger interaction between the Au film and the substrate and was composed of regularly distributed circular disks with radius R and distance D between the centers of neighboring disks. Our simulation results demonstrate that R and D have a strikingly different influence on the growth of the nanoparticle arrays. The degree of order of the nanoarray increases first before it reaches a peak and then decreases for increasing R at fixed D. However, the degree of order increases monotonously when D is increased and reaches a saturated value beyond a critical value of D for a fixed R. Interestingly, a labyrinth-like structure appeared during the dewetting process of the metal film. The simulation results also indicated that the temperature was an important factor in controlling the properties of the nanoarray. An appropriate temperature leads to an optimized nanoarray with a uniform grain size and well-ordered particle distribution. These results are important for understanding the dewetting behaviors of metal films on solid substrates and understanding the growth of highly ordered metal nanoarrays using a solid-patterned substrate method.

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

PubMed Central

Wallace, John M.; Fu, Qiang; Smoliak, Brian V.; Lin, Pu; Johanson, Celeste M.

2012-01-01

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. PMID:22847408

Analysis of streambed temperatures in ephemeral channels to determine streamflow frequency and duration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.; Stonestrom, David A.; Stewart, Amy E.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Smith, Tyson R.

2001-01-01

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow are rarely monitored for ephemeral streams. Flashy, erosive streamflows common in ephemeral channels create a series of operational and maintenance problems, which makes it impractical to deploy a series of gaging stations along ephemeral channels. Streambed temperature is a robust and inexpensive parameter to monitor remotely, leading to the possibility of analyzing temperature patterns to estimate streamflow frequency and duration along ephemeral channels. A simulation model was utilized to examine various atmospheric and hydrological upper boundary conditions compared with a series of hypothetical temperature‐monitoring depths within the streambed. Simulation results indicate that streamflow events were distinguished from changing atmospheric conditions with greater certainty using temperatures at shallow depths (e.g., 10–20 cm) as opposed to the streambed surface. Three ephemeral streams in the American Southwest were instrumented to monitor streambed temperature for determining the accuracy of using this approach to ascertain the long‐term temporal and spatial extent of streamflow along each stream channel. Streambed temperature data were collected at the surface or at shallow depth along each stream channel, using thermistors encased in waterproof, single‐channel data loggers tethered to anchors in the channel. On the basis of comparisons with site information, such as direct field observations and upstream flow records, diurnal temperature variations successfully detected the presence and duration of streamflow for all sites.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nogueira, C. P. S. M.; Guimarães, J. G.

In this paper, an auto-associative neural network using single-electron tunneling (SET) devices is proposed and simulated at low temperature. The nanoelectronic auto-associative network is able to converge to a stable state, previously stored during training. The recognition of the pattern involves decreasing the energy of the input state until it achieves a point of local minimum energy, which corresponds to one of the stored patterns.

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco;

How consistent are precipitation patterns predicted by GCMs in the absence of cloud radiative effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popke, Dagmar; Bony, Sandrine; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-04-01

Model simulations with state-of-the-art general circulation models reveal a strong disagreement concerning the simulated regional precipitation patterns and their changes with warming. The deviating precipitation response even persists when reducing the model experiment complexity to aquaplanet simulation with forced sea surface temperatures (Stevens and Bony, 2013). To assess feedbacks between clouds and radiation on precipitation responses we analyze data from 5 models performing the aquaplanet simulations of the Clouds On Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE), where the interaction of clouds and radiation is inhibited. Although cloud radiative effects are then disabled, the precipitation patterns among models are as diverse as with cloud radiative effects switched on. Disentangling differing model responses in such simplified experiments thus appears to be key to better understanding the simulated regional precipitation in more standard configurations. By analyzing the local moisture and moist static energy budgets in the COOKIE experiments we investigate likely causes for the disagreement among models. References Stevens, B. & S. Bony: What Are Climate Models Missing?, Science, 2013, 340, 1053-1054

An Improved Simulation of the Diurnally Varying Street Canyon Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghoobian, Neda; Kleissl, Jan; Paw U, Kyaw Tha

2012-11-01

The impact of diurnal variation of temperature distribution over building and ground surfaces on the wind flow and scalar transport in street canyons is numerically investigated using the PArallelized LES Model (PALM). The Temperature of Urban Facets Indoor-Outdoor Building Energy Simulator (TUF-IOBES) is used for predicting urban surface heat fluxes as boundary conditions for a modified version of PALM. TUF-IOBES dynamically simulates indoor and outdoor building surface temperatures and heat fluxes in an urban area taking into account weather conditions, indoor heat sources, building and urban material properties, composition of the building envelope (e.g. windows, insulation), and HVAC equipment. Temperature (and heat flux) distribution over urban surfaces of the 3-D raster-type geometry of TUF-IOBES makes it possible to provide realistic, high resolution boundary conditions for the numerical simulation of flow and scalar transport in an urban canopy. Compared to some previous analyses using uniformly distributed thermal forcing associated with urban surfaces, the present analysis shows that resolving non-uniform thermal forcings can provide more detailed and realistic patterns of the local air flow and pollutant dispersion in urban canyons.

Distinct aggregation patterns and fluid porous phase in a 2D model for colloids with competitive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordin, José Rafael

2018-04-01

In this paper we explore the self-assembly patterns in a two dimensional colloidal system using extensive Langevin Dynamics simulations. The pair potential proposed to model the competitive interaction have a short range length scale between first neighbors and a second characteristic length scale between third neighbors. We investigate how the temperature and colloidal density will affect the assembled morphologies. The potential shows aggregate patterns similar to observed in previous works, as clusters, stripes and porous phase. Nevertheless, we observe at high densities and temperatures a porous mesophase with a high mobility, which we name fluid porous phase, while at lower temperatures the porous structure is rigid. triangular packing was observed for the colloids and pores in both solid and fluid porous phases. Our results show that the porous structure is well defined for a large range of temperature and density, and that the fluid porous phase is a consequence of the competitive interaction and the random forces from the Langevin Dynamics.

Neon ion beam induced pattern formation on amorphous carbon surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobes, Omar; Hofsäss, Hans; Zhang, Kun

2018-02-01

We investigate the ripple pattern formation on amorphous carbon surfaces at room temperature during low energy Ne ion irradiation as a function of the ion incidence angle. Monte Carlo simulations of the curvature coefficients applied to the Bradley-Harper and Cater-Vishnyakov models, including the recent extensions by Harrison-Bradley and Hofsäss predict that pattern formation on amorphous carbon thin films should be possible for low energy Ne ions from 250 eV up to 1500 eV. Moreover, simulations are able to explain the absence of pattern formation in certain cases. Our experimental results are compared with prediction using current linear theoretical models and applying the crater function formalism, as well as Monte Carlo simulations to calculate curvature coefficients using the SDTrimSP program. Calculations indicate that no patterns should be generated up to 45° incidence angle if the dynamic behavior of the thickness of the ion irradiated layer introduced by Hofsäss is taken into account, while pattern formation most pronounced from 50° for ion energy between 250 eV and 1500 eV, which are in good agreement with our experimental data.

Wenatchee River, Washington, Water Temperature Modeling and Assessment Using Remotely Sensed Thermal Infrared and Instream Recorded Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristea, N. C.; Burges, S. J.

2004-12-01

The stream water spatial and temporal temperature patterns of the Wenatchee River, WA are assessed based on temperature data recorded by instream data loggers in the dry season of 2002 and thermal infrared imagery from August 16th 2002. To gain insights into the possible thermal behavior of the river, the stream temperature model Qual2K (Chapra and Pelletier, 2003) is extended beyond its calibration (10-16 August 2002) and confirmation (9-11 September 2002) periods for use with different meteorological, shade and flow conditions. The temperature longitudinal profile of the Wenatchee River is influenced by the temperature regime in Lake Wenatchee, the source of the Wenatchee River. Model simulations performed at 7-day average with 2-year return period flow conditions show that the potential (maximum average across all reaches) temperature (the temperature that would occur under natural conditions) is about 19.8 deg. C. For the 7-day average with 10-year return period flow conditions the potential temperature increases to about 21.2 deg. C. The simulation results show that under normal flow and meteorological conditions the water temperature exceeds the current water quality standards. Model simulations performed under the 7-day average with 10-year return period flow conditions and a climate change scenario show that the average potential temperature across all reaches can increase by as much as 1.3 deg. C compared to the case where climate change impact is not taken into account. Thermal infrared (TIR) derived stream temperature data were useful for describing spatial distribution patterns of the Wenatchee River water temperature. The TIR and visible band images are effective tools to map cold water refugia for fish and to detect regions that can be improved for fish survival. The images collected during the TIR survey and the TIR derived stream temperature longitudinal profile helps pinpoint additional instream monitoring locations that avoid regions of backwater, cool or warm pockets or regions affected by tributary influence, that are inappropriate for stream temperature monitoring. Groundwater input is difficult to detect from the TIR images in the case of a relatively large river such the Wenatchee River.

Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change.

PubMed

Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas

In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Using a conformal water bolus to adjust heating patterns of microwave waveguide applicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Paul R.; Rodrigues, Dario B.; Sinahon, Randolf; Sbarro, Lyndsey; Beckhoff, Valeria; Hurwitz, Mark D.

2017-02-01

Background: Hyperthermia, i.e., raising tissue temperature to 40-45°C for 60 min, has been demonstrated to increase the effectiveness of radiation and chemotherapy for cancer. Although multi-element conformal heat applicators are under development to provide more adjustable heating of contoured anatomy, to date the most often used applicator to heat superficial disease is the simple microwave waveguide. With only a single power input, the operator must be resourceful to adjust heat treatment to accommodate variable size and shape tumors spreading across contoured anatomy. Methods: We used multiphysics simulation software that couples electromagnetic, thermal and fluid dynamics physics to simulate heating patterns in superficial tumors from commercially available microwave waveguide applicators. Temperature distributions were calculated inside homogenous muscle and layered skin-fat-muscle-tumor-bone tissue loads for a typical range of applicator coupling configurations and size of waterbolus. Variable thickness waterbolus was simulated as necessary to accommodate contoured anatomy. Physical models of several treatment configurations were constructed for comparison of simulation results with experimental specific absorption rate (SAR) measurements in homogenous muscle phantom. Results: Accuracy of the simulation model was confirmed with experimental SAR measurements of three unique applicator setups. Simulations demonstrated the ability to generate a wide range of power deposition patterns with commercially available waveguide antennas by controllably varying size and thickness of the waterbolus layer. Conclusion: Heating characteristics of 915 MHz waveguide antennas can be varied over a wide range by controlled adjustment of microwave power, coupling configuration, and waterbolus lateral size and thickness. The uniformity of thermal dose delivered to superficial tumors can be improved by cyclic switching of waterbolus thickness during treatment to proactively shift heat peaks and nulls around under the aperture, thereby reducing patient pain while increasing minimum thermal dose by end of treatment.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

MANTLE CONVECTION, PLATE TECTONICS, AND VOLCANISM ON HOT EXO-EARTHS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Summeren, Joost; Conrad, Clinton P.; Gaidos, Eric, E-mail: summeren@hawaii.edu

Recently discovered exoplanets on close-in orbits should have surface temperatures of hundreds to thousands of Kelvin. They are likely tidally locked and synchronously rotating around their parent stars and, if an atmosphere is absent, have surface temperature contrasts of many hundreds to thousands of Kelvin between permanent day and night sides. We investigated the effect of elevated surface temperature and strong surface temperature contrasts for Earth-mass planets on the (1) pattern of mantle convection, (2) tectonic regime, and (3) rate and distribution of partial melting, using numerical simulations of mantle convection with a composite viscous/pseudo-plastic rheology. Our simulations indicate thatmore » if a close-in rocky exoplanet lacks an atmosphere to redistribute heat, a {approx}>400 K surface temperature contrast can maintain an asymmetric degree 1 pattern of mantle convection in which the surface of the planet moves preferentially toward subduction zones on the cold night side. The planetary surface features a hemispheric dichotomy, with plate-like tectonics on the night side and a continuously evolving mobile lid on the day side with diffuse surface deformation and vigorous volcanism. If volcanic outgassing establishes an atmosphere and redistributes heat, plate tectonics is globally replaced by diffuse surface deformation and volcanism accelerates and becomes distributed more uniformly across the planetary surface.« less

Numerical simulation of diurnally varying thermal environment in a street canyon under haze-fog conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-10-01

The impact of haze-fog on surface temperature, flow pattern, pollutant dispersion and pedestrian thermal comfort are investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach based on a three-dimensional street canyon model under different haze-fog conditions. In this study, light extinction coefficient (Kex) is adopted to represent haze-fog pollution level. Numerical simulations are performed for different Kex values at four representative time events (1000 LST, 1300 LST, 1600 LST and 2000 LST). The numerical results suggest that the surface temperature is strongly affected by the haze-fog condition. Surface heating induced by the solar radiation is enhanced by haze-fog, as higher surface temperature is observed under thicker haze-fog condition. Moreover, the temperature difference between sunlit and shadow surfaces is reduced, while that for the two shadow surfaces is slightly increased. Therefore, the surface temperature among street canyon facets becomes more evenly distributed under heavy haze-fog conditions. In addition, flow patterns are considerably altered by different haze-fog conditions, especially for the afternoon (1600 LST) case, in which thermal-driven flow has opposite direction as that of the wind-driven flow direction. Consequently, pollutants such as vehicular emissions will accumulate at pedestrian level, and pedestrian thermal comfort may lower under thicker haze-fog condition.

Nonlinear regression method for estimating neutral wind and temperature from Fabry-Perot interferometer data.

PubMed

Harding, Brian J; Gehrels, Thomas W; Makela, Jonathan J

2014-02-01

The Earth's thermosphere plays a critical role in driving electrodynamic processes in the ionosphere and in transferring solar energy to the atmosphere, yet measurements of thermospheric state parameters, such as wind and temperature, are sparse. One of the most popular techniques for measuring these parameters is to use a Fabry-Perot interferometer to monitor the Doppler width and breadth of naturally occurring airglow emissions in the thermosphere. In this work, we present a technique for estimating upper-atmospheric winds and temperatures from images of Fabry-Perot fringes captured by a CCD detector. We estimate instrument parameters from fringe patterns of a frequency-stabilized laser, and we use these parameters to estimate winds and temperatures from airglow fringe patterns. A unique feature of this technique is the model used for the laser and airglow fringe patterns, which fits all fringes simultaneously and attempts to model the effects of optical defects. This technique yields accurate estimates for winds, temperatures, and the associated uncertainties in these parameters, as we show with a Monte Carlo simulation.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

Concurrent design of an RTP chamber and advanced control system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spence, P.; Schaper, C.; Kermani, A.

1995-12-31

A concurrent-engineering approach is applied to the development of an axisymmetric rapid-thermal-processing (RTP) reactor and its associated temperature controller. Using a detailed finite-element thermal model as a surrogate for actual hardware, the authors have developed and tested a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) controller. Closed-loop simulations are performed by linking the control algorithm with the finite-element code. Simulations show that good temperature uniformity is maintained on the wafer during both steady and transient conditions. A numerical study shows the effect of ramp rate, feedback gain, sensor placement, and wafer-emissivity patterns on system performance.

Experimental measurement of microwave ablation heating pattern and comparison to computer simulations.

PubMed

Deshazer, Garron; Prakash, Punit; Merck, Derek; Haemmerich, Dieter

2017-02-01

For computational models of microwave ablation (MWA), knowledge of the antenna design is necessary, but the proprietary design of clinical applicators is often unknown. We characterised the specific absorption rate (SAR) during MWA experimentally and compared to a multi-physics simulation. An infrared (IR) camera was used to measure SAR during MWA within a split ex vivo liver model. Perseon Medical's short-tip (ST) or long-tip (LT) MWA antenna were placed on top of a tissue sample (n = 6), and microwave power (15 W) was applied for 6 min, while intermittently interrupting power. Tissue surface temperature was recorded via IR camera (3.3 fps, 320 × 240 resolution). SAR was calculated intermittently based on temperature slope before and after power interruption. Temperature and SAR data were compared to simulation results. Experimentally measured SAR changed considerably once tissue temperatures exceeded 100 °C, contrary to simulation results. The ablation zone diameters were 1.28 cm and 1.30 ± 0.03 cm (transverse), and 2.10 cm and 2.66 ± -0.22 cm (axial), for simulation and experiment, respectively. The average difference in temperature between the simulation and experiment were 5.6 °C (ST) and 6.2 °C (LT). Dice coefficients for 1000 W/kg SAR iso-contour were 0.74 ± 0.01 (ST) and 0.77 (± 0.03) (LT), suggesting good agreement of SAR contours. We experimentally demonstrated changes in SAR during MWA ablation, which were not present in simulation, suggesting inaccuracies in dielectric properties. The measured SAR may be used in simplified computer simulations to predict tissue temperature when the antenna geometry is unknown.

Development of Low Carbon Niobium Bearing High Strength F-B Dual Phase Steel with High Hole Expansion Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Xia, Ming-sheng; Xiong, Zi-liu; Du, Yan-bing; Qiao, Zhi-ming; Zhang, Hong-bo

In the study a low carbon niobium bearing high strength F-B dual phase automobile steel with high hole expansion property has been investigated. Steels of different chemical composition have been investigated by simulation experiments of controlled rolling and cooling process to study the influences of chemical elements, especially for C,Nb and Ti, and cooling pattern on the mechanical properties, flangeability and microstructure of strips. So-called 3-stages cooling pattern was adopted in simulation experiments, combining ultra fast cooling in first stage, air cooling in middle stage and fast cooling in the last stage, and at the end of run-out table the temperature of rolled pieces drop to below Bs point. Optical microstructure and SEM morphology have been observed. Results indicate that it is possible to obtain dual phase microstructure of polygonal ferrite plus bainite in adopting 3-stages cooling pattern. The low temperature coiling method using 3-step controlled cooling pattern after hot rolling is effective to produce low carbon Nb bearing steel with high balance of strength-ductility-flangeability, in addition, higher carbon content of steel tend to be detrimental to flangeability of steel, due to much carbide precipitation at ferrite boundary. Based on the results of simulation experiments mill trial has been carried out and hot rolled high strength steel with tensile strength higher as 600Mpa and hole expansion ratio higher as 100% has been developed successfully.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Multiphysics Modeling of Microwave Heating of a Frozen Heterogeneous Meal Rotating on a Turntable.

PubMed

Pitchai, Krishnamoorthy; Chen, Jiajia; Birla, Sohan; Jones, David; Gonzalez, Ric; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan

2015-12-01

A 3-dimensional (3-D) multiphysics model was developed to understand the microwave heating process of a real heterogeneous food, multilayered frozen lasagna. Near-perfect 3-D geometries of food package and microwave oven were used. A multiphase porous media model combining the electromagnetic heat source with heat and mass transfer, and incorporating phase change of melting and evaporation was included in finite element model. Discrete rotation of food on the turntable was incorporated. The model simulated for 6 min of microwave cooking of a 450 g frozen lasagna kept at the center of the rotating turntable in a 1200 W domestic oven. Temperature-dependent dielectric and thermal properties of lasagna ingredients were measured and provided as inputs to the model. Simulated temperature profiles were compared with experimental temperature profiles obtained using a thermal imaging camera and fiber-optic sensors. The total moisture loss in lasagna was predicted and compared with the experimental moisture loss during cooking. The simulated spatial temperature patterns predicted at the top layer was in good agreement with the corresponding patterns observed in thermal images. Predicted point temperature profiles at 6 different locations within the meal were compared with experimental temperature profiles and root mean square error (RMSE) values ranged from 6.6 to 20.0 °C. The predicted total moisture loss matched well with an RMSE value of 0.54 g. Different layers of food components showed considerably different heating performance. Food product developers can use this model for designing food products by understanding the effect of thickness and order of each layer, and material properties of each layer, and packaging shape on cooking performance. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2018-05-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of - 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.

Topology of microwave background fluctuations - Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gott, J. Richard, III; Park, Changbom; Bies, William E.; Bennett, David P.; Juszkiewicz, Roman

1990-01-01

Topological measures are used to characterize the microwave background temperature fluctuations produced by 'standard' scenarios (Gaussian) and by cosmic strings (non-Gaussian). Three topological quantities: total area of the excursion regions, total length, and total curvature (genus) of the isotemperature contours, are studied for simulated Gaussian microwave background anisotropy maps and then compared with those of the non-Gaussian anisotropy pattern produced by cosmic strings. In general, the temperature gradient field shows the non-Gaussian behavior of the string map more distinctively than the temperature field for all topology measures. The total contour length and the genus are found to be more sensitive to the existence of a stringy pattern than the usual temperature histogram. Situations when instrumental noise is superposed on the map, are considered to find the critical signal-to-noise ratio for which strings can be detected.

Infrared target simulation environment for pattern recognition applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savakis, Andreas E.; George, Nicholas

1994-07-01

The generation of complete databases of IR data is extremely useful for training human observers and testing automatic pattern recognition algorithms. Field data may be used for realism, but require expensive and time-consuming procedures. IR scene simulation methods have emerged as a more economical and efficient alternative for the generation of IR databases. A novel approach to IR target simulation is presented in this paper. Model vehicles at 1:24 scale are used for the simulation of real targets. The temperature profile of the model vehicles is controlled using resistive circuits which are embedded inside the models. The IR target is recorded using an Inframetrics dual channel IR camera system. Using computer processing we place the recorded IR target in a prerecorded background. The advantages of this approach are: (1) the range and 3D target aspect can be controlled by the relative position between the camera and model vehicle; (2) the temperature profile can be controlled by adjusting the power delivered to the resistive circuit; (3) the IR sensor effects are directly incorporated in the recording process, because the real sensor is used; (4) the recorded target can embedded in various types of backgrounds recorded under different weather conditions, times of day etc. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by generating an IR database of three vehicles which is used to train a back propagation neural network. The neural network is capable of classifying vehicle type, vehicle aspect, and relative temperature with a high degree of accuracy.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Local-scale analysis of temperature patterns over Poland during heatwave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyżewska, Agnieszka; Dyer, Jamie

2018-01-01

Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in the future, including over Central Europe where populations are sensitive to extreme temperature. This paper studies six recent major heatwave events over Poland from 2006 through 2015 using regional-scale simulations (10-km grid spacing, hourly frequency) from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to define local-scale 2-m temperature patterns. For this purpose, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with maximum 2-m air temperature exceeding 30 °C. The WRF simulations were validated using maximum daily 2-m temperature observations from 12 meteorological stations in select Polish cities, which were selected to have even spatial coverage across the study area. Synoptic analysis of the six study events shows that the inflow of tropical air masses from the south is the primary driver of heatwave onset and maintenance, the highest temperatures (and most vulnerable areas) occur over arable land and artificial surfaces in central and western Poland, while coastal areas in the north, mountain areas in the south, and forested and mosaic areas of smaller fields and pastures of the northwest, northeast, and southeast are less affected by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures. In general, regional differences in 2-m temperature between the hottest and coolest areas is about 2-4 °C. Large urban areas like Warsaw, or the large complex of artificial areas in the conurbation of Silesian cities, are also generally warmer than surrounding areas by roughly 2-4 °C, and even up to 6 °C, especially during the night. Additionally, hot air from the south of Poland flows through a low-lying area between two mountain ranges (Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains)—the so-called Moravian Gate—hitting densely populated urban areas (Silesian cities) and Cracow. These patterns occur only during high-pressure synoptic conditions with low cloudiness and wind and without any active fronts or mesoscale convective disturbances.

Thermal and athermal crackling noise in ferroelastic nanostructures.

PubMed

Zhao, Z; Ding, X; Sun, J; Salje, E K H

2014-04-09

The evolution of ferroelastic microstructures under external shear is determined by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations in two and three dimensions. Ferroelastic pattern formation was found to be almost identical in two and three dimensions, with only the ferroelastic transition temperature changing. The twin patterns generated by shear deformation depend strongly on temperature, with high wall densities nucleating under optimized temperature conditions. The dynamical tweed and mobile kink movement inside the twin walls is continuous and thermally activated at high temperatures, and becomes jerky and athermal at low temperatures. With decreasing temperature, the statistical distributions of dynamical tweed and kinks vary from a Vogel-Fulcher law P(E)~exp-(E/(T-TVF)) to an athermal power-law distribution P(E)~E-E. During the yield event, the nucleation of needles and kinks is always jerky, and the energy of the jerks is power-law distributed. Low-temperature yield proceeds via one large avalanche. With increasing temperature, the large avalanche is thermally broken up into a multitude of small segments. The power-law exponents reflect the changes in temperature, even in the athermal regime.

Modelling in-stream temperature and dissolved oxygen at sub-daily time steps: an application to the River Kennet, UK.

PubMed

Williams, Richard J; Boorman, David B

2012-04-15

The River Kennet in southern England shows a clear diurnal signal in both water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations through the summer months. The water quality model QUESTOR was applied in a stepwise manner (adding modelled processes or additional data) to simulate the flow, water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations along a 14 km reach. The aim of the stepwise model building was to find the simplest process-based model which simulated the observed behaviour accurately. The upstream boundary used was a diurnal signal of hourly measurements of water temperature and dissolved oxygen. In the initial simulations, the amplitude of the signal quickly reduced to zero as it was routed through the model; a behaviour not seen in the observed data. In order to keep the correct timing and amplitude of water temperature a heating term had to be introduced into the model. For dissolved oxygen, primary production from macrophytes was introduced to better simulate the oxygen pattern. Following the modifications an excellent simulation of both water temperature and dissolved oxygen was possible at an hourly resolution. It is interesting to note that it was not necessary to include nutrient limitation to the primary production model. The resulting model is not sufficiently proven to support river management but suggests that the approach has some validity and merits further development. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupled Long-Term Simulation of Reach-Scale Water and Heat Fluxes Across the River-Groundwater Interface for Retrieving Hyporheic Residence Times and Temperature Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munz, Matthias; Oswald, Sascha E.; Schmidt, Christian

2017-11-01

Flow patterns in conjunction with seasonal and diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many temperature-sensitive microbial processes. In this study, we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high-resolution observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures to quantify reach-scale water and heat flux across the river-groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel bed river. The model was calibrated in order to constrain estimates of the most sensitive model parameters. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7°C and an average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.87. Our results indicate that nonsubmerged streambed structures such as gravel bars cause substantial thermal heterogeneity within the saturated sediment at the reach scale. Individual hyporheic flow path temperatures strongly depend on the flow path residence time, flow path depth, river, and groundwater temperature. Variations in individual hyporheic flow path temperatures were up to 7.9°C, significantly higher than the daily average (2.8°C), but still lower than the average seasonal hyporheic temperature difference (19.2°C). The distribution between flow path temperatures and residence times follows a power law relationship with exponent of about 0.37. Based on this empirical relation, we further estimated the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on oxygen consumption which was found to partly increase by up to 29% in simulations.

Expanded modeling of temperature-dependent dielectric properties for microwave thermal ablation

PubMed Central

Ji, Zhen; Brace, Christopher L

2011-01-01

Microwaves are a promising source for thermal tumor ablation due to their ability to rapidly heat dispersive biological tissues, often to temperatures in excess of 100 °C. At these high temperatures, tissue dielectric properties change rapidly and, thus, so do the characteristics of energy delivery. Precise knowledge of how tissue dielectric properties change during microwave heating promises to facilitate more accurate simulation of device performance and helps optimize device geometry and energy delivery parameters. In this study, we measured the dielectric properties of liver tissue during high-temperature microwave heating. The resulting data were compiled into either a sigmoidal function of temperature or an integration of the time–temperature curve for both relative permittivity and effective conductivity. Coupled electromagnetic–thermal simulations of heating produced by a single monopole antenna using the new models were then compared to simulations with existing linear and static models, and experimental temperatures in liver tissue. The new sigmoidal temperature-dependent model more accurately predicted experimental temperatures when compared to temperature–time integrated or existing models. The mean percent differences between simulated and experimental temperatures over all times were 4.2% for sigmoidal, 10.1% for temperature–time integration, 27.0% for linear and 32.8% for static models at the antenna input power of 50 W. Correcting for tissue contraction improved agreement for powers up to 75 W. The sigmoidal model also predicted substantial changes in heating pattern due to dehydration. We can conclude from these studies that a sigmoidal model of tissue dielectric properties improves prediction of experimental results. More work is needed to refine and generalize this model. PMID:21791728

Decadal climate simulations using the Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled to the SSiB2 land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Marx, L.; Ek, M. B.

2016-12-01

The Simplified Simple Biophysical version 2 (SSiB2) model was implemented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for two 30-yr simulations. One simulation was initialized from CFS reanalysis data (EXP1), and the other from a 10-yr spin-up run (EXP2), in which the ocean model was allowed to run freely while the atmosphere and land surface were maintained constant to adjust inconsistencies in the initial conditions. EXP2 also includes an update in the SSiB2's average soil water potential calculation. The material presented highlights the model's performance in predicting spatial and temporal variability of monthly precipitation and surface temperature and aims at determining the optimum configuration for longer simulations. In general, the model is able to reproduce the main features of large-scale precipitation, with spatial correlation (scorr) and RMSE of 0.8 and 1.4 mm day-1, respectively. A split ITCZ pattern is observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, which results in dry biases along the equator and wet-bias bands to its north and south. Positive biases are also observed in the Atlantic ITCZ. The model generates consistent surface temperature climatology (scorr > 0.9, RMSE= 2.3°C). Warm biases are observed especially over southern Asia during summer. Both experiments produce similar precipitation climatology patterns with similar biases. EXP2, however, improves the temperature simulation by reducing the global bias by 48% and 26% during boreal winter and summer, respectively; and improves the temperature decadal variability for many areas. Moreover, EXP2 generates a better continental surface air warming trend. In the attempt to improve the precipitation decadal variability in the simulations, remotely-sensed LAI and vegetation cover fraction have been implemented in the CFS/SSiB2 to substitute the look-up table originally used in EXP1 and 2. The satellite vegetation data has been processed into global monthly maps which are continuous updated throughout the simulation. Results from this experiment will also be presented.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Biomes computed from simulated climatologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Claussen, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

The biome model of Prentice et al. is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie. This study undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a differencemore » in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are for the tropical rain forests. A potential northeast shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced CO{sub 2} concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting chances in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation to be taken as a prediction of chances in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a reduction of a future distribution of biomes. 15 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Spin flip statistics and spin wave interference patterns in Ising ferromagnetic films: A Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Acharyya, Muktish

2017-07-01

The spin wave interference is studied in two dimensional Ising ferromagnet driven by two coherent spherical magnetic field waves by Monte Carlo simulation. The spin waves are found to propagate and interfere according to the classic rule of interference pattern generated by two point sources. The interference pattern of spin wave is observed in one boundary of the lattice. The interference pattern is detected and studied by spin flip statistics at high and low temperatures. The destructive interference is manifested as the large number of spin flips and vice versa.

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Kumar, Arun; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Influence of reanalysis datasets on dynamically downscaling the recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2017-08-01

Multiple reanalysis datasets currently exist that can provide boundary conditions for dynamic downscaling and simulating local hydro-climatic processes at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Previous work has suggested that there are two reanalyses alternatives that provide the best lateral boundary conditions for downscaling over southern Africa. This study dynamically downscales these reanalyses (ERA-I and MERRA) over southern Africa to a high resolution (10 km) grid using the WRF model. Simulations cover the period 1981-2010. Multiple observation datasets were used for both surface temperature and precipitation to account for observational uncertainty when assessing results. Generally, temperature is simulated quite well, except over the Namibian coastal plain where the simulations show anomalous warm temperature related to the failure to propagate the influence of the cold Benguela current inland. Precipitation tends to be overestimated in high altitude areas, and most of southern Mozambique. This could be attributed to challenges in handling complex topography and capturing large-scale circulation patterns. While MERRA driven WRF exhibits slightly less bias in temperature especially for La Nina years, ERA-I driven simulations are on average superior in terms of RMSE. When considering multiple variables and metrics, ERA-I is found to produce the best simulation of the climate over the domain. The influence of the regional model appears to be large enough to overcome the small difference in relative errors present in the lateral boundary conditions derived from these two reanalyses.

Contribution of land use changes to meteorological parameters in Greater Jakarta: Case 17 January 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuryanto, D. E.; Pawitan, H.; Hidayat, R.; Aldrian, E.

2018-05-01

The impact of land use changes on meteorological parameters during a heavy rainfall event on 17 January 2014 in Greater Jakarta (GJ) was examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This study performed two experimental simulation methods. The first WRF simulation uses default land use (CTL). The second simulation applies the experiment by changing the size of urban and built-up land use (SCE). The Global Forecast System (GFS) data is applied to provide more realistic initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (3 km, 1 km). The simulations were initiated at 00:00 UTC January 13, 2014 and the period of modeling was equal to six days. The air temperature and the precipitation pattern in GJ shows a good agreement between the observed and simulated data. The results show a consistent significant contribution of urban development and accompany land use changes in air temperature and precipitation. According to the model simulation, urban and built-up land contributed about 6% of heavy rainfall and about 0.2 degrees of air temperatures in the morning. Simulations indicate that new urban developments led to an intensification and expansion of the rain area. The results can support the decision-making of flooding and watershed management.

Simulated Seasonal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Soil Moisture, Temperature, and Net Radiation in a Deciduous Forest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballard, Jerrell R., Jr.; Howington, Stacy E.; Cinnella, Pasquale; Smith, James A.

2011-01-01

The temperature and moisture regimes in a forest are key components in the forest ecosystem dynamics. Observations and studies indicate that the internal temperature distribution and moisture content of the tree influence not only growth and development, but onset and cessation of cambial activity [1], resistance to insect predation[2], and even affect the population dynamics of the insects [3]. Moreover, temperature directly affects the uptake and metabolism of population from the soil into the tree tissue [4]. Additional studies show that soil and atmospheric temperatures are significant parameters that limit the growth of trees and impose treeline elevation limitation [5]. Directional thermal infrared radiance effects have long been observed in natural backgrounds [6]. In earlier work, we illustrated the use of physically-based models to simulate directional effects in thermal imaging [7-8]. In this paper, we illustrated the use of physically-based models to simulate directional effects in thermal, and net radiation in a adeciduous forest using our recently developed three-dimensional, macro-scale computational tool that simulates the heat and mass transfer interaction in a soil-root-stem systems (SRSS). The SRSS model includes the coupling of existing heat and mass transport tools to stimulate the diurnal internal and external temperatures, internal fluid flow and moisture distribution, and heat flow in the system.

Atmospheric circulation of brown dwarfs and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets with active clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xianyu; Showman, Adam

2016-10-01

Observational evidence have suggested active meteorology in the atmospheres of brown dwarfs (BDs) and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets (EGPs). In particular, a number of surveys for brown dwarfs showed that near-IR brightness variability is common for L and T dwarfs. Directly imaged EGPs share similar observations, and can be viewed as low-gravity versions of BDs. Clouds are believed to play the major role in shaping the thermal structure, dynamics and near-IR flux of these atmospheres. So far, only a few studies have been devoted to atmospheric circulation and the implications for observations of BDs and directly EGPs, and yet no global model includes a self-consistent active cloud formation. Here we present preliminary results from the first global circulation model applied to BDs and directly imaged EGPs that can properly treat absorption and scattering of radiation by cloud particles. Our results suggest that horizontal temperature differences on isobars can reach up to a few hundred Kelvins, with typical horizontal length scale of the temperature and cloud patterns much smaller than the radius of the object. The combination of temperature anomaly and cloud pattern can result in moderate disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Wind speeds can reach several hundred meters per second in cloud forming layers. Unlike Jupiter and Saturn, we do not observe stable zonal jet/banded patterns in our simulations. Instead, our simulated atmospheres are typically turbulent and dominated by transient vortices. The circulation is sensitive to the parameterized cloud microphysics. Under some parameter combinations, global-scale atmospheric waves can be triggered and maintained. These waves induce global-scale temperature anomalies and cloud patterns, causing large (up to several percent) disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Our results demonstrate that the commonly observed near-IR brightness variability for BDs and directly imaged EGPs can be explained by the typical cloud-induced turbulent circulation, and in particular, the large flux variability for some objects can be attributed to the global-scale patterns of temperature anomaly and cloud formation caused by atmospheric waves.

Individual based simulations of bacterial growth on agar plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ginovart, M.; López, D.; Valls, J.; Silbert, M.

2002-03-01

The individual based simulator, INDividual DIScrete SIMulations (INDISIM) has been used to study the behaviour of the growth of bacterial colonies on a finite dish. The simulations reproduce the qualitative trends of pattern formation that appear during the growth of Bacillus subtilis on an agar plate under different initial conditions of nutrient peptone concentration, the amount of agar on the plate, and the temperature. The simulations are carried out by imposing closed boundary conditions on a square lattice divided into square spatial cells. The simulator studies the temporal evolution of the bacterial population possible by setting rules of behaviour for each bacterium, such as its uptake, metabolism and reproduction, as well as rules for the medium in which the bacterial cells grow, such as concentration of nutrient particles and their diffusion. The determining factors that characterize the structure of the bacterial colony patterns in the presents simulations, are the initial concentrations of nutrient particles, that mimic the amount of peptone in the experiments, and the set of values for the microscopic diffusion parameter related, in the experiments, to the amount of the agar medium.

Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

2014-05-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed analysis of individual components of the energy budget over Central Europe during and before the 1994 heat wave was performed.

Environmental influences on potential recruitment of pink shrimp, Fatlantopenaeus duorarum, from Florida Bay nursery grounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Browder, Joan A.; Restrepo, V.R.; Rice, J.K.; Robblee, M.B.; Zein-Eldin, Z.

1999-01-01

Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas rink shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlement-stage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly density estimates for juvenile rink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches.

Synthesizing SMOS Zero-Baselines with Aquarius Brightness Temperature Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colliander, A.; Dinnat, E.; Le Vine, D.; Kainulainen, J.

2012-01-01

SMOS [1] and Aquarius [2] are ESA and NASA missions, respectively, to make L-band measurements from the Low Earth Orbit. SMOS makes passive measurements whereas Aquarius measures both passive and active. SMOS was launched in November 2009 and Aquarius in June 2011.The scientific objectives of the missions are overlapping: both missions aim at mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). Additionally, SMOS mission produces soil moisture product (however, Aquarius data will eventually be used for retrieving soil moisture too). The consistency of the brightness temperature observations made by the two instruments is essential for long-term studies of SSS and soil moisture. For resolving the consistency, the calibration of the instruments is the key. The basis of the SMOS brightness temperature level is the measurements performed with the so-called zero-baselines [3]; SMOS employs an interferometric measurement technique which forms a brightness temperature image from several baselines constructed by combination of multiple receivers in an array; zero-length baseline defines the overall brightness temperature level. The basis of the Aquarius brightness temperature level is resolved from the brightness temperature simulator combined with ancillary data such as antenna patterns and environmental models [4]. Consistency between the SMOS zero-baseline measurements and the simulator output would provide a robust basis for establishing the overall comparability of the missions.

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olesen, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Boberg, F.

2016-12-01

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5Climate change affects the Greenlandic society both advantageously and disadvantageously. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may result in changes in a number of derived society related climate indices, such as the length of growing season or the number of annual dry days or a combination of the two - indices of substantial importance to society in a climate adaptation context.Detailed climate indices require high resolution downscaling. We have carried out a very high resolution (5 km) simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced by the global model EC-Earth. Evaluation of RCM output is usually done with an ensemble of downscaled output with multiple RCM's and GCM's. Here we have introduced and tested a new technique; a translation of the robustness of an ensemble of GCM models from CMIP5 into the specific index from the HIRHAM5 downscaling through a correlation between absolute temperatures and its corresponding index values from the HIRHAM5 output.The procedure is basically conducted in two steps: First, the correlation between temperature and a given index for the HIRHAM5 simulation by a best fit to a second order polynomial is identified. Second, the standard deviation from the CMIP5 simulations is introduced to show the corresponding standard deviation of the index from the HIRHAM5 run. The change of specific climate indices due to global warming will then be possible to evaluate elsewhere corresponding to the change in absolute temperature.Results based on selected indices with focus on the future climate in Greenland calculated for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios will be presented.

Effects of climate change on water quality in the Yaquina ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of a larger study to examine the effect of climate change (CC) on estuarine resources, we simulated the effect of rising sea level, alterations in river discharge, and increasing atmospheric temperatures on water quality in the Yaquina Estuary. Due to uncertainty in the effects of climate change, initial model simulations were performed for different steady river discharge rates that span the historical range in inflow, and for a range of increases in sea level and atmospheric temperature. Model simulations suggest that in the central portion of the estuary (19 km from mouth), a 60-cm increase in sea level will result in a 2-3 psu change in salinity across a broad range of river discharges. For the oligohaline portion of the estuary, salinity increases associated with a rise in sea level of 60 cm are only apparent at low river discharge rates (< 50 m3 s-1). Simulations suggest that the water temperatures near the mouth of the estuary will decrease due to rising sea level, while water temperatures in upriver portions of the estuary will increase due to rising atmospheric temperatures. We present results which demonstrate how the interaction of changes in river discharge, rising sea level, and atmospheric temperature associated with climate change produce non-linear patterns in the response of estuarine salinity and temperature, which vary with location inside the estuary and season. We also will discuss the importance of presenting results in a mann

Numerical analysis of steady and transient natural convection in an enclosed cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehedi, Tanveer Hassan; Tahzeeb, Rahat Bin; Islam, A. K. M. Sadrul

2017-06-01

The paper presents the numerical simulation of natural convection heat transfer of air inside an enclosed cavity which can be helpful to find out the critical width of insulation in air insulated walls seen in residential buildings and industrial furnaces. Natural convection between two walls having different temperatures have been simulated using ANSYS FLUENT 12.0 in both steady and transient conditions. To simulate different heat transfer and fluid flow conditions, Rayleigh number ranging from 103 to 105 has been maintained (i.e. Laminar flow.) In case of steady state analysis, the CFD predictions were in very good agreement with the reviewed literature. Transient simulation process has been performed by using User Defined Functions, where the temperature of the hot wall varies with time linearly. To obtain and compare the heat transfer properties, Nusselt number has been calculated at the hot wall at different conditions. The buoyancy driven flow characteristics have been investigated by observing the flow pattern in a graphical manner. The characteristics of the system at different temperature differences between the wall has been observed and documented.

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Francis, Jane E; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.; Pope, James O.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Wade, Bidget S

2014-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.

Thermophoretic motion behavior of submicron particles in boundary-layer-separation flow around a droplet.

PubMed

Wang, Ao; Song, Qiang; Ji, Bingqiang; Yao, Qiang

2015-12-01

As a key mechanism of submicron particle capture in wet deposition and wet scrubbing processes, thermophoresis is influenced by the flow and temperature fields. Three-dimensional direct numerical simulations were conducted to quantify the characteristics of the flow and temperature fields around a droplet at three droplet Reynolds numbers (Re) that correspond to three typical boundary-layer-separation flows (steady axisymmetric, steady plane-symmetric, and unsteady plane-symmetric flows). The thermophoretic motion of submicron particles was simulated in these cases. Numerical results show that the motion of submicron particles around the droplet and the deposition distribution exhibit different characteristics under three typical flow forms. The motion patterns of particles are dependent on their initial positions in the upstream and flow forms. The patterns of particle motion and deposition are diversified as Re increases. The particle motion pattern, initial position of captured particles, and capture efficiency change periodically, especially during periodic vortex shedding. The key effects of flow forms on particle motion are the shape and stability of the wake behind the droplet. The drag force of fluid and the thermophoretic force in the wake contribute jointly to the deposition of submicron particles after the boundary-layer separation around a droplet.

Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2017-02-01

A new dataset of surface temperature over North America has been constructed by merging climate model results and empirical tree-ring data through the application of an optimal interpolation algorithm. Errors of both the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulation and the tree-ring reconstruction were considered to optimize the combination of the two elements. Variance matching was used to reconstruct the surface temperature series. The model simulation provided the background field, and the error covariance matrix was estimated statistically using samples from the simulation results with a running 31-year window for each grid. Thus, the merging process could continue with a time-varying gain matrix. This merging method (MM) was tested using two types of experiment, and the results indicated that the standard deviation of errors was about 0.4 °C lower than the tree-ring reconstructions and about 0.5 °C lower than the model simulation. Because of internal variabilities and uncertainties in the external forcing data, the simulated decadal warm-cool periods were readjusted by the MM such that the decadal variability was more reliable (e.g., the 1940-1960s cooling). During the two centuries (1601-1800 AD) of the preindustrial period, the MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature, which is in accordance with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Compared with pure CCSM4 simulations, it was demonstrated that the MM brought a significant improvement to the decadal variability of the gridded temperature via the merging of temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.

Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the swedish integrated monitoring sites with the integrated catchments model for carbon, INCA-C.

PubMed

Futter, M N; Löfgren, S; Köhler, S J; Lundin, L; Moldan, F; Bringmark, L

2011-12-01

Surface water concentrations of dissolved organic carbon ([DOC]) are changing throughout the northern hemisphere due to changes in climate, land use and acid deposition. However, the relative importance of these drivers is unclear. Here, we use the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon (INCA-C) to simulate long-term (1996-2008) streamwater [DOC] at the four Swedish integrated monitoring (IM) sites. These are unmanaged headwater catchments with old-growth forests and no major changes in land use. Daily, seasonal and long-term variations in streamwater [DOC] driven by runoff, seasonal temperature and atmospheric sulfate (SO₄(2-)) deposition were observed at all sites. Using INCA-C, it was possible to reproduce observed patterns of variability in streamwater [DOC] at the four IM sites. Runoff was found to be the main short-term control on [DOC]. Seasonal patterns in [DOC] were controlled primarily by soil temperature. Measured SO₄(2-) deposition explained some of the long-term [DOC] variability at all sites.

A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

2018-04-01

Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

A simulation exercise of a cavity-type solar receiver using the HEAP program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.

1979-01-01

A computer program has been developed at JPL to support the advanced studies of solar receivers in high concentration solar-thermal-electric power plants. This work presents briefly the program methodology, input data required, expected output results, capabilities and limitations. The program was used to simulate an existing 5 kwt experimental receiver of a cavity type. The receiver is located at the focus of a paraboloid dish and is connected to a Stirling engine. Both steady state and transient performance simulation were given. Details about the receiver modeling were also presented to illustrate the procedure followed. Simulated temperature patterns were found in good agreement with test data obtained by high temperature thermocouples. The simulated receiver performance was extrapolated to various operating conditions not attained experimentally. The results of the parameterization study were fitted to a general performance expression to determine the receiver characteristic constraints. The latter were used to optimize the receiver operating conditions to obtain the highest overall conversion efficiency.

Experimental study on flame pattern formation and combustion completeness in a radial microchannel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Aiwu; Minaev, Sergey; Kumar, Sudarshan; Liu, Wei; Maruta, Kaoru

2007-12-01

Combustion behavior in a radial microchannel with a gap of 2.0 mm and a diameter of 50 mm was experimentally investigated. In order to simulate the heat recirculation, which is an essential strategy in microscale combustion devices, positive temperature gradients along the radial flow direction were given to the microchannel by an external heat source. A methane-air mixture was supplied from the center of the top plate through a 4.0 mm diameter delivery tube. A variety of flame patterns, including a stable circular flame and several unstable flame patterns termed unstable circular flame, single and double pelton-like flames, traveling flame and triple flame, were observed in the experiments. The regime diagram of all these flame patterns is presented in this paper. Some characteristics of the various flame patterns, such as the radii of stable and unstable circular flames, major combustion products and combustion efficiencies of all these flame patterns, were also investigated. Furthermore, the effect of the heat recirculation on combustion stability was studied by changing the wall temperature levels.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Numerical simulation of humidification and heating during inspiration within an adult nose.

PubMed

Sommer, F; Kroger, R; Lindemann, J

2012-06-01

The temperature of inhaled air is highly relevant for the humidification process. Narrow anatomical conditions limit possibilities for in vivo measurements. Numerical simulations offer a great potential to examine the function of the human nose. In the present study, the nasal humidification of inhaled air was simulated simultaneously with temperature distribution during a respiratory cycle. A realistic nose model based on a multislice CT scan was created. The simulation was performed by the Software Fluent(r). Boundary conditions were based on previous in vivo measurements. Inhaled air had a temperature of 20(deg)C and relative humidity of 30%. The wall temperature was assumed to be variable from 34(deg)C to 30(deg)C with constant humidity saturation of 100% during the respiratory cycle. A substantial increase in temperature and humidity can be observed after passing the nasal valve area. Areas with high speed air flow, e.g. the space around the turbinates, show an intensive humidification and heating potential. Inspired air reaches 95% humidity and 28(deg)C within the nasopharynx. The human nose features an enormous humidification and heating capability. Warming and humidification are dependent on each other and show a similar spacial pattern. Concerning the climatisation function, the middle turbinate is of high importance. In contrast to in vivo measurements, numerical simulations can explore the impact of airflow distribution on nasal air conditioning. They are an effective method to investigate nasal pathologies and impacts of surgical procedures.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Modeling of convection, temperature distribution and dendritic growth in glass-fluxed nickel melts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jianrong; Kao, Andrew; Bojarevics, Valdis; Pericleous, Koulis; Galenko, Peter K.; Alexandrov, Dmitri V.

2017-08-01

Melt flow is often quoted as the reason for a discrepancy between experiment and theory on dendritic growth kinetics at low undercoolings. But this flow effect is not justified for glass-fluxed melts where the flow field is weaker. In the present work, we modeled the thermal history, flow pattern and dendritic structure of a glass-fluxed nickel sample by magnetohydrodynamics calculations. First, the temperature distribution and flow structure in the molten and undercooled melt were simulated by reproducing the observed thermal history of the sample prior to solidification. Then the dendritic structure and surface temperature of the recalescing sample were simulated. These simulations revealed a large thermal gradient crossing the sample, which led to an underestimation of the real undercooling for dendritic growth in the bulk volume of the sample. By accounting for this underestimation, we recalculated the dendritic tip velocities in the glass-fluxed nickel melt using a theory of three-dimensional dendritic growth with convection and concluded an improved agreement between experiment and theory.

Effective height of chimney for biomass cook stove simulated by computational fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faisal; Setiawan, A.; Wusnah; Khairil; Luthfi

2018-02-01

This paper presents the results of numerical modelling of temperature distribution and flow pattern in a biomass cooking stove using CFD simulation. The biomass stove has been designed to suite the household cooking process. The stove consists of two pots. The first is the main pot located on the top of the combustion chamber where the heat from the combustion process is directly received. The second pot absorbs the heat from the exhaust gas. A chimney installed at the end of the stove releases the exhaust gas to the ambient air. During the tests, the height of chimney was varied to find the highest temperatures at both pots. Results showed that the height of the chimney at the highest temperatures of the pots is 1.65 m. This chimney height was validated by developing a model for computational fluid dynamics. Both experimental and simulations results show a good agreement and help in tune-fining the design of biomass cooking stove.

Effects of Hot Streak Shape on Rotor Heating in a High-Subsonic Single-Stage Turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorney, Daniel J.; Gundy-Burlet, Karen L.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Experimental data have shown that combustor temperature non-uniformities can lead to the excessive heating of first-stage rotor blades in turbines. This heating of the rotor blades can lead to thermal fatigue and degrade turbine performance. The results of recent studies have shown that variations in the circumferential location (clocking) of the hot streak relative to the first-stage vane airfoils can be used to minimize the adverse effects of the hot streak. The effects of the hot streak/airfoil count ratio on the heating patterns of turbine airfoils have also been evaluated. In the present investigation, three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes simulations have been performed for a single-stage high-pressure turbine operating in high subsonic flow. In addition to a simulation of the baseline turbine, simulations have been performed for circular and elliptical hot streaks of varying sizes in an effort to represent different combustor designs. The predicted results for the baseline simulation show good agreement with the available experimental data. The results of the hot streak simulations indicate: that a) elliptical hot streaks mix more rapidly than circular hot streaks, b) for small hot streak surface area the average rotor temperature is not a strong function of hot streak temperature ratio or shape, and c) hot streaks with larger surface area interact with the secondary flows at the rotor hub endwall, generating an additional high temperature region.

Three-dimensional whispering gallery modes in InGaAs nanoneedle lasers on silicon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tran, T.-T. D.; Chen, R.; Ng, K. W.

2014-09-15

As-grown InGaAs nanoneedle lasers, synthesized at complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor compatible temperatures on polycrystalline and crystalline silicon substrates, were studied in photoluminescence experiments. Radiation patterns of three-dimensional whispering gallery modes were observed upon optically pumping the needles above the lasing threshold. Using the radiation patterns as well as finite-difference-time-domain simulations and polarization measurements, all modal numbers of the three-dimensional whispering gallery modes could be identified.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

PubMed Central

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-01-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions. PMID:27934933

Modeling of convection phenomena in Bridgman-Stockbarger crystal growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, F. M.; Eraslan, A. H.; Sheu, J. Z.

1985-01-01

Thermal convection phenomena in a vertically oriented Bridgman-Stockbarger apparatus were modeled by computer simulations for different gravity conditions, ranging from earth conditions to extremely low gravity, approximate space conditions. The modeling results were obtained by the application of a state-of-the art, transient, multi-dimensional, completely densimetrically coupled, discrete-element computational model which was specifically developed for the simulation of flow, temperature, and species concentration conditions in two-phase (solid-liquid) systems. The computational model was applied to the simulation of the flow and the thermal conditions associated with the convection phenomena in a modified Germanium-Silicon charge enclosed in a stationary fused-silica ampoule. The results clearly indicated that the gravitational field strength influences the characteristics of the coherent vortical flow patterns, interface shape and position, maximum melt velocity, and interfacial normal temperature gradient.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Mears, Carl A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Caldwell, Peter; Arblaster, Julie M.; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Lanzante, John; Perlwitz, Judith; Solomon, Susan; Stott, Peter A.; Taylor, Karl E.; Terray, Laurent; Thorne, Peter W.; Wehner, Michael F.; Wentz, Frank J.; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Wilcox, Laura J.; Zou, Cheng-Zhi

2013-01-01

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing. PMID:23197824

Analysis of the role of the Spitzenkörper in fungal morphogenesis by computer simulation of apical branching in Aspergillus niger

PubMed Central

Reynaga-Peña, Cristina G.; Gierz, Gerhard; Bartnicki-Garcia, Salomon

1997-01-01

High-resolution video microscopy, image analysis, and computer simulation were used to study the role of the Spitzenkörper (Spk) in apical branching of ramosa-1, a temperature-sensitive mutant of Aspergillus niger. A shift to the restrictive temperature led to a cytoplasmic contraction that destabilized the Spk, causing its disappearance. After a short transition period, new Spk appeared where the two incipient apical branches emerged. Changes in cell shape, growth rate, and Spk position were recorded and transferred to the fungus simulator program to test the hypothesis that the Spk functions as a vesicle supply center (VSC). The simulation faithfully duplicated the elongation of the main hypha and the two apical branches. Elongating hyphae exhibited the growth pattern described by the hyphoid equation. During the transition phase, when no Spk was visible, the growth pattern was nonhyphoid, with consecutive periods of isometric and asymmetric expansion; the apex became enlarged and blunt before the apical branches emerged. Video microscopy images suggested that the branch Spk were formed anew by gradual condensation of vesicle clouds. Simulation exercises where the VSC was split into two new VSCs failed to produce realistic shapes, thus supporting the notion that the branch Spk did not originate by division of the original Spk. The best computer simulation of apical branching morphogenesis included simulations of the ontogeny of branch Spk via condensation of vesicle clouds. This study supports the hypothesis that the Spk plays a major role in hyphal morphogenesis by operating as a VSC—i.e., by regulating the traffic of wall-building vesicles in the manner predicted by the hyphoid model. PMID:9256441

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arakawa, Akio; Konor, C.S.

Two types of vertical grids are used for atmospheric models: The Lorenz (L grid) and the Charney-Phillips grid (CP grid). In this paper, problems with the L grid are pointed out that are due to the existence of an extra degree of freedom in the vertical distribution of the temperature (and the potential temperature). Then a vertical differencing of the primitive equations based on the CP grid is presented, while most of the advantages of the L grid in a hybrid {sigma}-p vetical coordinate are maintained. The discrete hydrostatic equation is constructed in such a way that it is freemore » from the vertical computational mode in the thermal field. Also, the vertical advection of the potential temperature in the discrete thermodynamic equation is constructed in such a way that it reduces to the standard (and most straightforward) vertical differencing of the quasigeostrophic equations based on the CP grid. Simulations of standing oscillations superposed on a resting atmosphere are presented using two vertically discrete models, one based on the L grid and the other on the CP grid. The comparison of the simulations shows that with the L grid a stationary vertically zigzag pattern dominates in the thermal field, while with the CP grid no such pattern is evident. Simulations of the growth of an extrapolated cyclone in a cyclic channel on a {beta} plan are also presented using two different {sigma}-coordinate models, again one with the L grid and the other with the CP grid, starting from random disturbances. 17 refs., 8 figs.« less

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Do maize models capture the impacts of heat and drought stresses on yield? Using algorithm ensembles to identify successful approaches.

PubMed

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Tan, Zeli; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Zheng, Bangyou; Melillo, Jerry M

2016-09-01

Stresses from heat and drought are expected to increasingly suppress crop yields, but the degree to which current models can represent these effects is uncertain. Here we evaluate the algorithms that determine impacts of heat and drought stress on maize in 16 major maize models by incorporating these algorithms into a standard model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), and running an ensemble of simulations. Although both daily mean temperature and daylight temperature are common choice of forcing heat stress algorithms, current parameterizations in most models favor the use of daylight temperature even though the algorithm was designed for daily mean temperature. Different drought algorithms (i.e., a function of soil water content, of soil water supply to demand ratio, and of actual to potential transpiration ratio) simulated considerably different patterns of water shortage over the growing season, but nonetheless predicted similar decreases in annual yield. Using the selected combination of algorithms, our simulations show that maize yield reduction was more sensitive to drought stress than to heat stress for the US Midwest since the 1980s, and this pattern will continue under future scenarios; the influence of excessive heat will become increasingly prominent by the late 21st century. Our review of algorithms in 16 crop models suggests that the impacts of heat and drought stress on plant yield can be best described by crop models that: (i) incorporate event-based descriptions of heat and drought stress, (ii) consider the effects of nighttime warming, and (iii) coordinate the interactions among multiple stresses. Our study identifies the proficiency with which different model formulations capture the impacts of heat and drought stress on maize biomass and yield production. The framework presented here can be applied to other modeled processes and used to improve yield predictions of other crops with a wide variety of crop models. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Mahanama, Sarith P.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2017-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

Fluid Flow Patterns During Production from Gas Hydrates in the Laboratory compared to Field Settings: LARS vs. Mallik

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, B.; Heeschen, K. U.; Priegnitz, M.; Abendroth, S.; Spangenberg, E.; Thaler, J.; Schicks, J. M.

2015-12-01

The GFZ's LArge Reservoir Simulator LARS allows for the simulation of the 2008 Mallik gas hydrate production test and the comparison of fluid flow patterns and their driving forces. Do we see the gas flow pattern described for Mallik [Uddin, M. et al., J. Can. Petrol Tech, 50, 70-89, 2011] in a pilot scale test? If so, what are the driving forces? LARS has a network of temperature sensors and an electric resistivity tomography (ERT) enabling a good spatial resolution of gas hydrate occurrences, water and gas distribution, and changes in temperature in the sample. A gas flow meter and a water trap record fluid flow patterns and a backpressure valve has controlled the depressurization equivalent to the three pressure stages (7.0 - 5.0 - 4.2 MPa) applied in the Mallik field test. The environmental temperature (284 K) and confining pressure (13 MPa) have been constant. The depressurization induced immediate endothermic gas hydrate dissociation until re-establishment of the stability conditions by a consequent temperature decrease. Slight gas hydrate dissociation continued at the top and upper lateral border due to the constant heat input from the environment. Here transport pathways were short and permeability higher due to lower gas hydrate saturation. At pressures of 7.0 and 5.0 MPa the LARS tests showed high water flow rates and short irregular spikes of gas production. The gas flow patterns at 4.2 MPa and 3.0MPa resembled those of the Mallik test. In LARS the initial gas surges overlap with times of hydrate instability while water content and lengths of pathways had increased. Water production was at a minimum. A rapidly formed continuous gas phase caused the initial gas surges and only after gas hydrate dissociation decreased to a minimum the single gas bubbles get trapped before slowly coalescing again. In LARS, where pathways were short and no additional water was added, a transport of microbubbles is unlikely to cause a gas surge as suggested for Mallik.

3D conformal MRI-controlled transurethral ultrasound prostate therapy: validation of numerical simulations and demonstration in tissue-mimicking gel phantoms.

PubMed

Burtnyk, Mathieu; N'Djin, William Apoutou; Kobelevskiy, Ilya; Bronskill, Michael; Chopra, Rajiv

2010-11-21

MRI-controlled transurethral ultrasound therapy uses a linear array of transducer elements and active temperature feedback to create volumes of thermal coagulation shaped to predefined prostate geometries in 3D. The specific aims of this work were to demonstrate the accuracy and repeatability of producing large volumes of thermal coagulation (>10 cc) that conform to 3D human prostate shapes in a tissue-mimicking gel phantom, and to evaluate quantitatively the accuracy with which numerical simulations predict these 3D heating volumes under carefully controlled conditions. Eleven conformal 3D experiments were performed in a tissue-mimicking phantom within a 1.5T MR imager to obtain non-invasive temperature measurements during heating. Temperature feedback was used to control the rotation rate and ultrasound power of transurethral devices with up to five 3.5 × 5 mm active transducer elements. Heating patterns shaped to human prostate geometries were generated using devices operating at 4.7 or 8.0 MHz with surface acoustic intensities of up to 10 W cm(-2). Simulations were informed by transducer surface velocity measurements acquired with a scanning laser vibrometer enabling improved calculations of the acoustic pressure distribution in a gel phantom. Temperature dynamics were determined according to a FDTD solution to Pennes' BHTE. The 3D heating patterns produced in vitro were shaped very accurately to the prostate target volumes, within the spatial resolution of the MRI thermometry images. The volume of the treatment difference falling outside ± 1 mm of the target boundary was, on average, 0.21 cc or 1.5% of the prostate volume. The numerical simulations predicted the extent and shape of the coagulation boundary produced in gel to within (mean ± stdev [min, max]): 0.5 ± 0.4 [-1.0, 2.1] and -0.05 ± 0.4 [-1.2, 1.4] mm for the treatments at 4.7 and 8.0 MHz, respectively. The temperatures across all MRI thermometry images were predicted within -0.3 ± 1.6 °C and 0.1 ± 0.6 °C, inside and outside the prostate respectively, and the treatment time to within 6.8 min. The simulations also showed excellent agreement in regions of sharp temperature gradients near the transurethral and endorectal cooling devices. Conformal 3D volumes of thermal coagulation can be precisely matched to prostate shapes with transurethral ultrasound devices and active MRI temperature feedback. The accuracy of numerical simulations for MRI-controlled transurethral ultrasound prostate therapy was validated experimentally, reinforcing their utility as an effective treatment planning tool.

Sheet-like and plume-like thermal flow in a spherical convection experiment performed under microgravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breuer, D.; Futterer, B.; Plesa, A.; Krebs, A.; Zaussinger, F.; Egbers, C.

2013-12-01

In mantle dynamics research, experiments, usually performed in rectangular geometries in Earth-based laboratories, have the character of ';exploring new physics and testing theories' [1]. In this work, we introduce our spherical geometry experiments on electro-hydrodynamical driven Rayleigh-Benard convection that have been performed for both temperature-independent (`GeoFlow I'), and temperature-dependent fluid viscosity properties (`GeoFlow II') with a measured viscosity contrast up to 1.5. To set up a self-gravitating force field, we use a high voltage potential between the inner and outer boundaries and a dielectric insulating liquid and perform the experiment under microgravity conditions at the ISS [2, 3]. Further, numerical simulations in 3D spherical geometry have been used to reproduce the results obtained in the `GeoFlow' experiments. For flow visualisation, we use Wollaston prism shearing interferometry which is an optical method producing fringe pattern images. Flow pattern differ between our two experiments (Fig. 1). In `GeoFlow I', we see a sheet-like thermal flow. In this case convection patterns have been successfully reproduced by 3D numerical simulations using two different and independently developed codes. In contrast, in `GeoFlow II' we obtain plume-like structures. Interestingly, numerical simulations do not yield this type of solution for the low viscosity contrast realised in the experiment. However, using a viscosity contrast of two orders of magnitude or higher, we can reproduce the patterns obtained in the `GeoFlow II' experiment, from which we conclude that non-linear effects shift the effective viscosity ratio [4]. References [1] A. Davaille and A. Limare (2009). In: Schubert, G., Bercovici, D. (Eds.), Treatise on Geophysics - Mantle Dynamics. [2] B. Futterer, C. Egbers, N. Dahley, S. Koch, L. Jehring (2010). Acta Astronautica 66, 193-100. [3] B. Futterer, N. Dahley, S. Koch, N. Scurtu, C. Egbers (2012). Acta Astronautica 71, 11-19. [4] B. Futterer, A. Krebs, A.-C. Plesa, F. Zaussinger, D.Breuer, C. Egbers (2013). submitted to Journal of Fluid Mechanics. Fig. 1: a) Sheet-like thermal flow in the GeoFlow I spherical experiment with silicone oil of temperature-stable properties (RaE=1.17e6); b) Plume-like dominated flow in the GeoFlow II experiment using a fluid with temperature dependent viscosity and volume expansion (RaE=1.87e6).

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

The influence of spectral nudging on typhoon formation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feser, Frauke; Barcikowska, Monika

2012-03-01

Regional climate models can successfully simulate tropical cyclones and typhoons. This has been shown and was evaluated for hindcast studies of the past few decades. But often global and regional weather phenomena are not simulated at the observed location, or occur too often or seldom even though the regional model is driven by global reanalysis data which constitute a near-realistic state of the global atmosphere. Therefore, several techniques have been developed in order to make the regional model follow the global state more closely. One is spectral nudging, which is applied for horizontal wind components with increasing strength for higher model levels in this study. The aim of this study is to show the influence that this method has on the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) in regional climate models. Two ensemble simulations (each with five simulations) were computed for Southeast Asia and the Northwestern Pacific for the typhoon season 2004, one with spectral nudging and one without. First of all, spectral nudging reduced the overall TC number by about a factor of 2. But the number of tracks which are similar to observed best track data (BTD) was greatly increased. Also, spatial track density patterns were found to be more similar when using spectral nudging. The tracks merge after a short time for the spectral nudging simulations and then follow the BTD closely; for the no nudge cases the similarity is greatly reduced. A comparison of seasonal precipitation, geopotential height, and temperature fields at several height levels with observations and reanalysis data showed overall a smaller ensemble spread, higher pattern correlations and reduced root mean square errors and biases for the spectral nudged simulations. Vertical temperature profiles for selected TCs indicate that spectral nudging is not inhibiting TC development at higher levels. Both the Madden-Julian Oscillation and monsoonal precipitation are reproduced realistically by the regional model, with results slightly closer to reanalysis data for the spectral nudged simulations. On the basis of this regional climate model hindcast study of a single typhoon season, spectral nudging seems to be favourable since it has mostly positive effects on typhoon formation, location and general circulation patterns in the generation areas of TCs.

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Regional Climate Simulations over North America: Interaction of Local Processes with Improved Large-Scale Flow.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2005-04-01

The reasons for biases in regional climate simulations were investigated in an attempt to discern whether they arise from deficiencies in the model parameterizations or are due to dynamical problems. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the detailed climate over North America at 50-km resolution for June 2000 was simulated. First, the RAMS equations were modified to make them applicable to a large region, and its turbulence parameterization was corrected. The initial simulations showed large biases in the location of precipitation patterns and surface air temperatures. By implementing higher-resolution soil data, soil moisture and soil temperature initialization, and corrections to the Kain-Fritch convective scheme, the temperature biases and precipitation amount errors could be removed, but the precipitation location errors remained. The precipitation location biases could only be improved by implementing spectral nudging of the large-scale (wavelength of 2500 km) dynamics in RAMS. This corrected for circulation errors produced by interactions and reflection of the internal domain dynamics with the lateral boundaries where the model was forced by the reanalysis.

Variability in reef connectivity in the Coral Triangle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Kleypas, J. A.; Castruccio, F. S.; Watson, J. R.; Curchitser, E. N.

2015-12-01

The Coral Triangle (CT) is not only the global center of marine biodiversity, it also supports the livelihoods of millions of people. Unfortunately, it is also considered the most threatened of all reef regions, with rising temperature and coral bleaching already taking a toll. Reproductive connectivity between reefs plays a critical role in the reef's capacity to recover after such disturbances. Thus, oceanographic modeling efforts to understand patterns of reef connectivity are essential to the effective design of a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) to conserve marine ecosystems in the Coral Triangle. Here, we combine a Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) with a Lagrangian particle tracking tool (TRACMASS) to investigate the probability of coral larval transport between reefs. A 47-year hindcast simulation (1960-2006) was used to investigate the variability in larval transport of a broadcasting coral following mass spawning events in April and September. Potential connectivity between reefs was highly variable and stochastic from year to year, emphasizing the importance of decadal or longer simulations in identifying connectivity patterns, key source and sink regions, and thus marine management targets for MPAs. The influence of temperature on realized connectivity (future work) may add further uncertainty to year-to-year patterns of connectivity between reefs. Nonetheless, the potential connectivity results we present here suggest that although reefs in this region are primarily self-seeded, rare long-distance dispersal may promote recovery and genetic exchange between reefs in the region. The spatial pattern of "subpopulations" based solely on the physical drivers of connectivity between reefs closely match regional patterns of biodiversity, suggesting that physical barriers to larval dispersal may be a key driver of reef biodiversity. Finally, 21st Century simulations driven by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) suggest that these major barriers to larval dispersal persist into the future under 8.5 W/m2 of climate forcing, despite some regional changes in connectivity between reefs.

Thermally induced rarefied gas flow in a three-dimensional enclosure with square cross-section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lianhua; Yang, Xiaofan; Guo, Zhaoli

2017-12-01

Rarefied gas flow in a three-dimensional enclosure induced by nonuniform temperature distribution is numerically investigated. The enclosure has a square channel-like geometry with alternatively heated closed ends and lateral walls with a linear temperature distribution. A recently proposed implicit discrete velocity method with a memory reduction technique is used to numerically simulate the problem based on the nonlinear Shakhov kinetic equation. The Knudsen number dependencies of the vortices pattern, slip velocity at the planar walls and edges, and heat transfer are investigated. The influences of the temperature ratio imposed at the ends of the enclosure and the geometric aspect ratio are also evaluated. The overall flow pattern shows similarities with those observed in two-dimensional configurations in literature. However, features due to the three-dimensionality are observed with vortices that are not identified in previous studies on similar two-dimensional enclosures at high Knudsen and small aspect ratios.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of ion-induced ripple formation: Dependence on flux, temperature, and defect concentration in the linear regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chason, E.; Chan, W. L.; Bharathi, M. S.

Low-energy ion bombardment produces spontaneous periodic structures (sputter ripples) on many surfaces. Continuum theories describe the pattern formation in terms of ion-surface interactions and surface relaxation kinetics, but many features of these models (such as defect concentration) are unknown or difficult to determine. In this work, we present results of kinetic Monte Carlo simulations that model surface evolution using discrete atomistic versions of the physical processes included in the continuum theories. From simulations over a range of parameters, we obtain the dependence of the ripple growth rate, wavelength, and velocity on the ion flux and temperature. The results are discussedmore » in terms of the thermally dependent concentration and diffusivity of ion-induced surface defects. We find that in the early stages of ripple formation the simulation results are surprisingly well described by the predictions of the continuum theory, in spite of simplifying approximations used in the continuum model.« less

Development, Testing, and Application of a Coupled Hydrodynamic Surface-Water/Groundwater Model (FTLOADDS) with Heat and Salinity Transport in the Ten Thousand Islands/Picayune Strand Restoration Project Area, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Decker, Jeremy D.

2009-01-01

A numerical model application was developed for the coastal area inland of the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) in southwestern Florida using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) model. This model couples a two-dimensional dynamic surface-water model with a three-dimensional groundwater model, and has been applied to several locations in southern Florida. The model application solves equations for salt transport in groundwater and surface water, and also simulates surface-water temperature using a newly enhanced heat transport algorithm. One of the purposes of the TTI application is to simulate hydrologic factors that relate to habitat suitability for the West Indian Manatee. Both salinity and temperature have been shown to be important factors for manatee survival. The inland area of the TTI domain is the location of the Picayune Strand Restoration Project, which is designed to restore predevelopment hydrology through the filling and plugging of canals, construction of spreader channels, and the construction of levees and pump stations. The effects of these changes are simulated to determine their effects on manatee habitat. The TTI application utilizes a large amount of input data for both surface-water and groundwater flow simulations. These data include topography, frictional resistance, atmospheric data including rainfall and air temperature, aquifer properties, and boundary conditions for tidal levels, inflows, groundwater heads, and salinities. Calibration was achieved by adjusting the parameters having the largest uncertainty: surface-water inflows, the surface-water transport dispersion coefficient, and evapotranspiration. A sensitivity analysis did not indicate that further parameter changes would yield an overall improvement in simulation results. The agreement between field data from GPS-tracked manatees and TTI application results demonstrates that the model can predict the salinity and temperature fluctuations which affect manatee behavior. Comparison of the existing conditions simulation with the simulation incorporating restoration changes indicated that the restoration would increase the period of inundation for most of the coastal wetlands. Generally, surface-water salinity was lowered by restoration changes in most of the wetlands areas, especially during the early dry season. However, the opposite pattern was observed in the primary canal habitat for manatees, namely, the Port of the Islands. Salinities at this location tended to be moderately elevated during the dry season, and unchanged during the wet season. Water temperatures were in close agreement between the existing conditions and restoration simulations, although minimum temperatures at the Port of the Islands were slightly higher in the restoration simulation as a result of the additional surface-water ponding and warming that occurs in adjacent wetlands. The TTI application output was used to generate salinity and temperature time series for comparison to manatee field tracking data and an individually-based manatee-behavior model. Overlaying field data with salinity and temperature results from the TTI application reflects the effect of warm water availability and the periodic need for low-salinity drinking water on manatee movements. The manatee-behavior model uses the TTI application data at specific model nodes along the main manatee travel corridors to determine manatee migration patterns. The differences between the existing conditions and restoration scenarios can then be compared for manatee refugia. The TTI application can be used to test a variety of hydrologic conditions and their effect on important criteria.

Determination of the Pb, Cr, and Cd distribution patterns with various chlorine additives in the bottom ashes of a low-temperature two-stage fluidized bed incinerator by chemical sequential extraction.

PubMed

Peng, Tzu-Huan; Lin, Chiou-Liang; Wey, Ming-Yen

2015-09-15

A novel low-temperature two-stage fluidized bed (LTTSFB) incinerator has been successfully developed to control heavy-metal emissions during municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment. However, the characteristics of the residual metal patterns during this process are still unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the metal patterns in the different partitions of the LTTSFB bottom ash by chemical sequential extraction. Artificial waste was used to simulate the MSW. Different parameters including the first-stage temperature, chloride additives, and operating gas velocity were also considered. Results indicated that during the low-temperature treatment process, a high metal mobility phase exists in the first-stage sand bed. The main patterns of Cd, Pb, and Cr observed were the water-soluble, exchangeable, and residual forms, respectively. With the different Cl additives, the results showed that polyvinyl chloride addition increased metal mobility in the LTTSFB bottom ash, while, sodium chloride addition may have reduced metal mobility due to the formation of eutectic material. The second-stage sand bed was found to have a lower risk of metal leaching. The results also suggested that, the residual ashes produced by the LTTSFB system must be taken into consideration given their high metal mobility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Numerical modeling tools for chemical vapor deposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasinski, Thomas J.; Childs, Edward P.

1992-01-01

Development of general numerical simulation tools for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was the objective of this study. Physical models of important CVD phenomena were developed and implemented into the commercial computational fluid dynamics software FLUENT. The resulting software can address general geometries as well as the most important phenomena occurring with CVD reactors: fluid flow patterns, temperature and chemical species distribution, gas phase and surface deposition. The physical models are documented which are available and examples are provided of CVD simulation capabilities.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Minimum maximum temperature gradient coil design.

PubMed

While, Peter T; Poole, Michael S; Forbes, Larry K; Crozier, Stuart

2013-08-01

Ohmic heating is a serious problem in gradient coil operation. A method is presented for redesigning cylindrical gradient coils to operate at minimum peak temperature, while maintaining field homogeneity and coil performance. To generate these minimaxT coil windings, an existing analytic method for simulating the spatial temperature distribution of single layer gradient coils is combined with a minimax optimization routine based on sequential quadratic programming. Simulations are provided for symmetric and asymmetric gradient coils that show considerable improvements in reducing maximum temperature over existing methods. The winding patterns of the minimaxT coils were found to be heavily dependent on the assumed thermal material properties and generally display an interesting "fish-eye" spreading of windings in the dense regions of the coil. Small prototype coils were constructed and tested for experimental validation and these demonstrate that with a reasonable estimate of material properties, thermal performance can be improved considerably with negligible change to the field error or standard figures of merit. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tao; Calvo, Natalia; Yue, Jia; Dou, Xiankang; Russell, J. M, III; Mlynczak, M. G.; She, Chiao-Yao; Xue, Xianghui

2013-01-01

Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

Dynamic Angular Control Of Thermal Therapy With Stationary Multi-Sectored Tubular Ultrasound Applicators Under MR Temperature Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Nau, William H.; Ross, Anthony B.; Butts Pauly, Kim; Rieke, Viola; Sommer, Graham

2006-05-01

Multi-sectored ultrasound heating applicators with dynamic angular and longitudinal control of heating profiles are being investigated for the thermal treatment of tumors in sites such as prostate, uterus, and brain. Multi-sectored tubular ultrasound transducers with independent sector power control were incorporated into interstitial and transurethral applicators and provided dynamic angular control of a heating pattern without requiring device manipulation during treatment. Acoustic beam measurements of each applicator type demonstrated a 35-40° acoustic dead zone between each independent sector, with negligible mechanical or electrical coupling. Despite the acoustic dead zone between sectors, simulations and experiments under MR temperature (MRT) monitoring showed that the variance from the maximum lesion radius (scalloping) with all elements activated on a transducer was minimal and did not affect conformal heating of a target area. A biothermal model with a multi-point controller was used to adjust the applied power and treatment time of individual transducer segments as the tissue temperature changed in simulations of thermal lesions with both interstitial and transurethral applicators. Transurethral ultrasound applicators for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) treatment with either three or four sectors conformed a thermal dose to a simulated target area in the angular and radial dimensions. The simulated treatment was controlled to a maximum temperature of 85°C, and had a maximum duration of 5 min when power was turned off as the 52°C temperature contour reach a predetermined control point for each sector in the tissue. Experiments conducted with multi-sectored applicators under MRT monitoring showed thermal ablation and hyperthermia treatments had little or no border `scalloping', conformed to a pretreatment target area, and correlated very well with the simulated thermal lesions. The radial penetration of the heat treatments in tissue with interstitial (1.5-1.8 mm OD transducer) and transurethral (2.5-4.0 mm OD transducer) applicators was at least 1.5 cm and 2.0 cm, respectively, for a treatment duration of 10 min. Angular control of thermal ablation and hyperthermia therapy often relies upon non-adjustable angular power deposition patterns and/or mechanical manipulation of the heating device. The multi-sectored ultrasound applicators developed in this study provide dynamic control of the angular heating distribution during treatment without device manipulation and maintain previously reported heating penetration and spatial control characteristics of similar ultrasound devices.

Investigation of thermocapillary convection in a three-liquid-layer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Géoris, Ph.; Hennenberg, M.; Lebon, G.; Legros, J. C.

1999-06-01

This paper presents the first experimental results on Marangoni Bénard instability in a symmetrical three-layer system. A pure thermocapillary phenomenon has been observed by performing the experiment in a microgravity environment where buoyancy forces can be neglected. This configuration enables the hydrodynamic stability of two identical liquid liquid interfaces subjected to a normal gradient of temperature to be studied. The flow is driven by one interface only and obeys the criterion based on the heat diffusivity ratio proposed by Scriven & Sternling (1959) and Smith (1966). The measured critical temperature difference for the onset of convection is compared to the value obtained from two-dimensional numerical simulations. The results of the simulations are in reasonable agreement with the velocimetry and the thermal experimental data for moderate supercriticality. Numerically and experimentally, the convective pattern exhibits a transition between different convective regimes for similar temperature gradients. Their common detailed features are discussed.

Theoretical framework for quantitatively estimating ultrasound beam intensities using infrared thermography.

PubMed

Myers, Matthew R; Giridhar, Dushyanth

2011-06-01

In the characterization of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) systems, it is desirable to know the intensity field within a tissue phantom. Infrared (IR) thermography is a potentially useful method for inferring this intensity field from the heating pattern within the phantom. However, IR measurements require an air layer between the phantom and the camera, making inferences about the thermal field in the absence of the air complicated. For example, convection currents can arise in the air layer and distort the measurements relative to the phantom-only situation. Quantitative predictions of intensity fields based upon IR temperature data are also complicated by axial and radial diffusion of heat. In this paper, mathematical expressions are derived for use with IR temperature data acquired at times long enough that noise is a relatively small fraction of the temperature trace, but small enough that convection currents have not yet developed. The relations were applied to simulated IR data sets derived from computed pressure and temperature fields. The simulation was performed in a finite-element geometry involving a HIFU transducer sonicating upward in a phantom toward an air interface, with an IR camera mounted atop an air layer, looking down at the heated interface. It was found that, when compared to the intensity field determined directly from acoustic propagation simulations, intensity profiles could be obtained from the simulated IR temperature data with an accuracy of better than 10%, at pre-focal, focal, and post-focal locations. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Evaluating source area contributions from aircraft flux measurements over heterogeneous land cover by large eddy simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The estimation of spatial patterns in surface fluxes from aircraft observations poses several challenges in presence of heterogeneous land cover. In particular, the effects of turbulence on scalar transport and the different behavior of passive (e.g. moisture) versus active (e.g. temperature) scalar...

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce water availability for agriculture, so it is essential to increase the effective use of water to ensure future crop productivity. Quantifying future crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Th...

Field and numerical studies of flow structure in Lake Shira (Khakassia) in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakubaylik, Tatyana; Kompaniets, Lidia

2014-05-01

Investigations of Lake Shira are conducted within a multidisciplinary approach that includes the study of biodiversity, biochemistry, geology of lake sediments, as well as its hydrophysics. Our report focuses on field measurements in the lake during the 2009 - 2013 and numerical modeling of flow structure. The flow velocity, temperature and salinity distribution and fluctuations of the thermocline (density) were measured in summer. An analysis of spatial and temporal variability of the major hydrophysical characteristics leads us to conclusion that certain meteorological conditions may cause internal waves in this lake. Digital terrain model is constructed from measurements of Lake bathymetry allowing us to carry out numerical simulation. Three-dimensional primitive equation numerical model GETM is applied to simulate hydrophysical processes in Lake Shira. The model is hydrostatic and Boussinesq. An algorithm of high order approximation is opted for calculating the equations of heat and salt transfer. Temperature and salinity distributions resulting from field observations are taken as initial data for numerical simulations. Model calculations as well as calculations with appropriate real wind pattern being observed on Lake Shira have been carried out. In the model calculations we follow (1). Significant differences are observed between model calculations with constant wind and calculations with real wind pattern. Unsteady wind pattern leads to the appearance of horizontal vortexes and a significant increase of vertical fluctuations in temperature (density, impurities). It causes lifting of the sediments to the upper layers at the areas where the thermocline contacts the bottom. It is important for understanding the overall picture of the processes occurring in the lake in summer. Comparison of the results of numerical experiments with the field data shows the possibility of such a phenomena in Lake Shira. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Studies under Grant 13-05-00853 and interdisciplinary integration project of SB RAS 56. REFERENCES 1. Beletsky D. Numerical Simulation of Internal Kelvin Waves and Coastal Upwelling Fronts. D. Beletsky, W. P. O'Connor J. of Physical Oceanography. - v.27. - July 1997. - P. 1197-1215.

Flow and Pollutant Transport in Urban Street Canyons of Different Aspect Ratios with Ground Heating: Large-Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xian-Xiang; Britter, Rex E.; Norford, Leslie K.; Koh, Tieh-Yong; Entekhabi, Dara

2012-02-01

A validated large-eddy simulation model was employed to study the effect of the aspect ratio and ground heating on the flow and pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons. Three ground-heating intensities (neutral, weak and strong) were imposed in street canyons of aspect ratio 1, 2, and 0.5. The detailed patterns of flow, turbulence, temperature and pollutant transport were analyzed and compared. Significant changes of flow and scalar patterns were caused by ground heating in the street canyon of aspect ratio 2 and 0.5, while only the street canyon of aspect ratio 0.5 showed a change in flow regime (from wake interference flow to skimming flow). The street canyon of aspect ratio 1 does not show any significant change in the flow field. Ground heating generated strong mixing of heat and pollutant; the normalized temperature inside street canyons was approximately spatially uniform and somewhat insensitive to the aspect ratio and heating intensity. This study helps elucidate the combined effects of urban geometry and thermal stratification on the urban canyon flow and pollutant dispersion.

Three-dimensional finite element simulations of vertebral body thermal treatment (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Thomas P.; Patel, Samit J.; Morris, Ronit; Hoopes, P. J.; Bergeron, Jeffrey A.; Mahajan, Roop

2005-04-01

Lower back pain affects a large group of people worldwide and when in its early stages, has no viable interventional treatment. In order to avoid the eventuality of an invasive surgical procedure, which is further down the Care Pathway, an interventional treatment that is minimally invasive and arrests the patient's pain would be of tremendous clinical benefit. There is a hypothesis that if the basivertebral nerve in the vertebral body is defunctionalized, lower back pain may be lessened. To further investigate creating a means to provide localized thermal therapy, bench and animal studies were planned, but to help select the applicator configuration and placement, numerical modeling studies were undertaken. A 3D finite element model was utilized to predict the electric field pattern and power deposition pattern of radiofrequency (RF) based electrodes. Three types of tissues were modeled: 1) porcine (ex-vivo), ovine (in-vivo preclinical), and 3) human (ex-vivo, in-vivo). Two types of RF devices were simulated: 1) a pair of converging, hollow electrodes, and 2) an in-line pair of spaced-apart electrodes. Temperature distributions over time were plotted using the electric field results and the bioheat equation. Since the thermal and electrical properties of the vertebral bodies of porcine, ovine, and human tissue were not available, measurements were undertaken to capture these data to input into the model. The measurements of electrical and thermal properties of cancellous and cortical vertebral body were made over a range of temperatures. The simulation temperature results agreed with live animal and human cadaver studies. In addition, the lesion shapes predicted in the simulations matched CT and MRI studies done during the chronic ovine study, as well as histology results. In conclusion, the simulations aided in shaping and sizing the RF electrodes, as well as positioning them in the vertebral body structures to assure that the basivertebral nerve was ablated, but other neighboring structures such as the spinal cord and nerve roots were spared.

Comparisons between observations and numerical simulations of Japan (East) Sea flow and mass fields in 1999 through 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, Christopher N. K.; Bang, Inkweon; Sandoval, Francisco J.

2005-06-01

The Princeton Ocean Model (POM), as implemented for the Japan (East) Sea (JES) with mesoscale-admitting resolution is driven by seasonal throughflow and synoptic atmospheric forcing for 1999 through 2001. Temperature and salinity profiles from shipborne and PALACE float CTDs, and horizontal velocities at 800 m from PALACE float trajectories, plus horizontal velocities at 15 m from WOCE surface drifters for 1988 through 2001, are used to assess the performance of the numerical simulations for a base case. General agreement exists in the circulation at 15 and 800 m and the horizontal and vertical structure of the upper ocean temperature and salinity fields. The mean observed flow at 15 m defines the two branches of the Tsushima Warm Current and hints at the existence of a large cyclonic gyre over the Japan Basin, which the simulations also produce. The mean observed flow at 800 m defines a large cyclonic recirculation gyre over the Japan Basin that validates the simulated flow pattern. Variances of the observed and simulated flows at 15 and 800 m have similar patterns. The main discrepancies are associated with the strength of the seasonal thermocline and halocline and the location of the Subpolar Front. When smoother topography and smaller lateral friction are used in other cases, the thermocline and halocline strengthen, agreeing better with the observed values, and when 80% of total outflow transport is forced to exit through Soya Strait, the Subpolar Front extends along the coast to the north of Tsugaru Strait, which is an observed feature absent in the base case.

Simulated Tree Growth across the Northern Hemisphere and the Seasonality of Climate Signals Encoded within Tree-ring Widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; St George, S.

2013-12-01

Both dendrochronological theory and regional and global networks of tree-ring width measurements indicate that trees can respond to climate variations quite differently from one location to another. To explain these geographical differences at hemispheric scale, we used a process-based model of tree-ring formation (the Vaganov-Shashkin model) to simulate tree growth at over 6000 locations across the Northern Hemisphere. We compared the seasonality and strength of climate signals in the simulated tree-ring records against parallel analysis conducted on a hemispheric network of real tree-ring observations, tested the ability of the model to reproduce behaviors that emerge from large networks of tree-ring widths and used the model outputs to explain why the network exhibits these behaviors. The simulated tree-ring records are consistent with observations with respect to the seasonality and relative strength of the encoded climate signals, and time-related changes in these climate signals can be predicted using the modeled relative growth rate due to temperature or soil moisture. The positive imprint of winter (DJF) precipitation is strongest in simulations from the American Southwest and northern Mexico as well as selected locations in the Mediterranean and central Asia. Summer (JJA) precipitation has higher positive correlations with simulations in the mid-latitudes, but some high-latitude coastal sites exhibit a negative association. The influence of summer temperature is mainly positive at high-latitude or high-altitude sites and negative in the mid-latitudes. The absolute magnitude of climate correlations are generally higher in simulations than in observations, but the pattern and geographical differences remain the same, demonstrating that the model has skill in reproducing tree-ring growth response to climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because the model uses only temperature, precipitation and latitude as input and is not adjusted for species or other biological factors, the fact that the climate response of the simulations largely agrees with the observations may imply that climate, rather than biology, is the main factor that influences large-scale patterns of the climate information recorded by tree rings. Our results also suggest that the Vaganov-Shashkin model could be used to estimate the likely climate response of trees in ';frontier' areas that have not been sampled extensively. Seasonal Climate Correlations of Simulated Tree-ring Records

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Understanding the Central Equatorial African long-term drought using AMIP-type simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Wenjian; Zhou, Liming; Chen, Haishan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Jiang, Yan; Raghavendra, Ajay

2018-02-01

Previous studies show that Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations may help to explain the observed long-term drought during April-May-June (AMJ) since the 1990s over Central equatorial Africa (CEA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this drought are still not clear due to observation limitations. Here we use the AMIP-type simulations with 24 ensemble members forced by observed SSTs from the ECHAM4.5 model to explore the likely physical processes that determine the rainfall variations over CEA. We not only examine the ensemble mean (EM), but also compare the "good" and "poor" ensemble members to understand the intra-ensemble variability. In general, EM and the "good" ensemble member can simulate the drought and associated reduced vertical velocity and anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere. However, the "poor" ensemble members cannot simulate the drought and associated circulation patterns. These contrasts indicate that the drought is tightly associated with the tropical Walker circulation and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. If the observational circulation patterns cannot be reproduced, the CEA drought will not be captured. Despite the large intra-ensemble spread, the model simulations indicate an essential role of SST forcing in causing the drought. These results suggest that the long-term drought may result from tropical Indo-Pacific SST variations associated with the enhanced and westward extended tropical Walker circulation.

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non-stationary) relationship between lake surface temperature and air temperature. The data-model comparison helps partition the impacts of lake-specific processes such as energy balance, mixing, sedimentation and bioturbation. We provide new insight into the patterns, amplitudes, sensitivity, and mechanisms of African temperature change.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Simulation model of stratified thermal energy storage tank using finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waluyo, Joko

2016-06-01

Stratified TES tank is normally used in the cogeneration plant. The stratified TES tanks are simple, low cost, and equal or superior in thermal performance. The advantage of TES tank is that it enables shifting of energy usage from off-peak demand for on-peak demand requirement. To increase energy utilization in a stratified TES tank, it is required to build a simulation model which capable to simulate the charging phenomenon in the stratified TES tank precisely. This paper is aimed to develop a novel model in addressing the aforementioned problem. The model incorporated chiller into the charging of stratified TES tank system in a closed system. The model was developed in one-dimensional type involve with heat transfer aspect. The model covers the main factors affect to degradation of temperature distribution namely conduction through the tank wall, conduction between cool and warm water, mixing effect on the initial flow of the charging as well as heat loss to surrounding. The simulation model is developed based on finite difference method utilizing buffer concept theory and solved in explicit method. Validation of the simulation model is carried out using observed data obtained from operating stratified TES tank in cogeneration plant. The temperature distribution of the model capable of representing S-curve pattern as well as simulating decreased charging temperature after reaching full condition. The coefficient of determination values between the observed data and model obtained higher than 0.88. Meaning that the model has capability in simulating the charging phenomenon in the stratified TES tank. The model is not only capable of generating temperature distribution but also can be enhanced for representing transient condition during the charging of stratified TES tank. This successful model can be addressed for solving the limitation temperature occurs in charging of the stratified TES tank with the absorption chiller. Further, the stratified TES tank can be charged with the cooling energy of absorption chiller that utilizes from waste heat from gas turbine of the cogeneration plant.

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Thermal Energy Exchange Model and Water Loss of a Barrel Cactus, Ferocactus acanthodes1

PubMed Central

Lewis, Donald A.; Nobel, Park S.

1977-01-01

The influences of various diurnal stomatal opening patterns, spines, and ribs on the stem surface temperature and water economy of a CAM succulent, the barrel cactus Ferocactus acanthodes, were examined using an energy budget model. To incorporate energy exchanges by shortwave and longwave irradiation, latent heat, conduction, and convection as well as the heat storage in the massive stem, the plant was subdivided into over 100 internal and external regions in the model. This enabled the average surface temperature to be predicted within 1 C of the measured temperature for both winter and summer days. Reducing the stem water vapor conductance from the values observed in the field to zero caused the average daily stem surface temperature to increase only 0.7 C for a winter day and 0.3 C for a summer day. Thus, latent heat loss does not substantially reduce stem temperature. Although the surface temperatures averaged 18 C warmer for the summer day than for the winter day for a plant 41 cm tall, the temperature dependence of stomatal opening caused the simulated nighttime water loss rates to be about the same for the 2 days. Spines moderated the amplitude of the diurnal temperature changes of the stem surface, since the daily variation was 17 C for the winter day and 25 C for the summer day with spines compared with 23 C and 41 C, respectively, in their simulated absence. Ribs reduced the daytime temperature rise by providing 54% more area for convective heat loss than for a smooth circumscribing surface. In a simulation where both spines and ribs were eliminated, the daytime average surface temperature rose by 5 C. PMID:16660148

A comparison between general circulation model simulations using two sea surface temperature datasets for January 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ose, Tomoaki; Mechoso, Carlos; Halpern, David

1994-01-01

Simulations with the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using two different global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets for January 1979 are compared. One of these datasets is based on Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) (SSTs) at locations where there are ship reports, and climatology elsewhere; the other is derived from measurements by instruments onboard NOAA satellites. In the former dataset (COADS SST), data are concentrated along shipping routes in the Northern Hemisphere; in the latter dataset High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS SST), data cover the global domain. Ensembles of five 30-day mean fields are obtained from integrations performed in the perpetual-January mode. The results are presented as anomalies, that is, departures of each ensemble mean from that produced in a control simulation with climatological SSTs. Large differences are found between the anomalies obtained using COADS and HIRS SSTs, even in the Northern Hemisphere where the datasets are most similar to each other. The internal variability of the circulation in the control simulation and the simulated atmospheric response to anomalous forcings appear to be linked in that the pattern of geopotential height anomalies obtained using COADS SSTs resembles the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF 1) in the control simulation. The corresponding pattern obtained using HIRS SSTs is substantially different and somewhat resembles EOF 2 in the sector from central North America to central Asia. To gain insight into the reasons for these results, three additional simulations are carried out with SST anomalies confined to regions where COADS SSTs are substantially warmer than HIRS SSTs. The regions correspond to warm pools in the northwest and northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic. These warm pools tend to produce positive geopotential height anomalies in the northeastern part of the corresponding oceans. Both warm pools in the Pacific produce large-scale circulation anomalies with a pattern that resembles that obtained using COADS SSTs as well as EOF 1 of the control simulation; the warm pool in the Atlantic does not. These results suggest that the differences obtained with COADS SSTs and HIRS SSTs are mostly due to the differences in the datasets over the northern Pacific. There was a blocking episode near Greenland in late January 1979. Both simulations with warm SST anomalies over the northwest and northeast Pacific show a tendency toward increased incidence of North Atlantic blocking; the simulation with warm SST anomalies over the northwest Atlantic shows a tendency toward decreased incidence. These results suggest that features in both SST datasets that do not have a counterpart in the other dataset contribute signficantly to the differences between the simulated and observed fields. The results of this study imply that uncertainties in current SST distributions for the world oceans can be as important as the SST anomalies themselves in terms of their impact on the atmospheric circulation. Caution should be exercised, therefore, when linking anomalous circulation and SST patterns, especially in long-range prediction.

Phase transitions in the system CaCO3 at high P and T determined by in situ vibrational spectroscopy in diamond anvil cells and first-principles simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch-Müller, Monika; Jahn, Sandro; Birkholz, Natalie; Ritter, Eglof; Schade, Ulrich

2016-09-01

The stability of the high-pressure CaCO3 calcite (cc)-related polymorphs was studied in experiments that were performed in conventional diamond anvil cells (DAC) at room temperature as a function of pressure up to 30 GPa as well as in internally heated diamond anvil cells (DAC-HT) at pressures and temperatures up to 20 GPa and 800 K. To probe structural changes, we used Raman and FTIR spectroscopy. For the latter, we applied conventional and synchrotron mid-infrared as well as synchrotron far-infrared radiation. Within the cc-III stability field (2.2-15 GPa at room temperature, e.g., Catalli and Williams in Phys Chem Miner 32(5-6):412-417, 2005), we observed in the Raman spectra consistently three different spectral patterns: Two patterns at pressures below and above 3.3 GPa were already described in Pippinger et al. (Phys Chem Miner 42(1):29-43, 2015) and assigned to the phase transition of cc-IIIb to cc-III at 3.3 GPa. In addition, we observed a clear change between 5 and 6 GPa that is independent of the starting material and the pressure path and time path of the experiments. This apparent change in the spectral pattern is only visible in the low-frequency range of the Raman spectra—not in the infrared spectra. Complementary electronic structure calculations confirm the existence of three distinct stability regions of cc-III-type phases at pressures up to about 15 GPa. By combining experimental and simulation data, we interpret the transition at 5-6 GPa as a re-appearance of the cc-IIIb phase. In all types of experiments, we confirmed the transition from cc-IIIb to cc-VI at about 15 GPa at room temperature. We found that temperature stabilizes cc-VI to lower pressure. The reaction cc-IIIb to cc-VI has a negative slope of -7.0 × 10-3 GPa K-1. Finally, we discuss the possibility of the dense cc-VI phase being more stable than aragonite at certain pressure and temperature conditions relevant to the Earth's mantle.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to Prairie Potholes and Grasslands

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Climate changes in the Prairie Potholes and Grasslands bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperature and changing precipitation patterns. Because the region is relatively dry with a strong seasonal climate, it is sensitive to climatic changes and vulnerable to changes in climatic regime. For example, model simulations show that regional...

On the molecular origin of the cooperative coil-to-globule transition of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) in water.

PubMed

Tavagnacco, L; Zaccarelli, E; Chiessi, E

2018-04-18

By means of atomistic molecular dynamics simulations we investigate the behaviour of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), PNIPAM, in water at temperatures below and above the lower critical solution temperature (LCST), including the undercooled regime. The transition between water soluble and insoluble states at the LCST is described as a cooperative process involving an intramolecular coil-to-globule transition preceding the aggregation of chains and the polymer precipitation. In this work we investigate the molecular origin of such cooperativity and the evolution of the hydration pattern in the undercooled polymer solution. The solution behaviour of an atactic 30-mer at high dilution is studied in the temperature interval from 243 to 323 K with a favourable comparison to available experimental data. In the water soluble states of PNIPAM we detect a correlation between polymer segmental dynamics and diffusion motion of bound water, occurring with the same activation energy. Simulation results show that below the coil-to-globule transition temperature PNIPAM is surrounded by a network of hydrogen bonded water molecules and that the cooperativity arises from the structuring of water clusters in proximity to hydrophobic groups. Differently, the perturbation of the hydrogen bond pattern involving water and amide groups occurs above the transition temperature. Altogether these findings reveal that even above the LCST PNIPAM remains largely hydrated and that the coil-to-globule transition is related with a significant rearrangement of the solvent in the proximity of the surface of the polymer. The comparison between the hydrogen bonding of water in the surrounding of PNIPAM isopropyl groups and in the bulk displays a decreased structuring of solvent at the hydrophobic polymer-water interface across the transition temperature, as expected because of the topological extension along the chain of such interface. No evidence of an upper critical solution temperature behaviour, postulated in theoretical and thermodynamics studies of PNIPAM aqueous solution, is observed in the low temperature domain.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Dynamical downscaling of regional climate over eastern China using RSM with multiple physics scheme ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peishu, Zong; Jianping, Tang; Shuyu, Wang; Lingyun, Xie; Jianwei, Yu; Yunqian, Zhu; Xiaorui, Niu; Chao, Li

2017-08-01

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; O'Neill, K. P.; Harden, J.W.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Yarie, J.

2003-01-01

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm (R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated (R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands (R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Omens of coupled model biases in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Hourdin, Frédéric; Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Braconnot, Pascale

2018-02-01

Despite decades of efforts and improvements in the representation of processes as well as in model resolution, current global climate models still suffer from a set of important, systematic biases in sea surface temperature (SST), not much different from the previous generation of climate models. Many studies have looked at errors in the wind field, cloud representation or oceanic upwelling in coupled models to explain the SST errors. In this paper we highlight the relationship between latent heat flux (LH) biases in forced atmospheric simulations and the SST biases models develop in coupled mode, at the scale of the entire intertropical domain. By analyzing 22 pairs of forced atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations from the CMIP5 database, we show a systematic, negative correlation between the spatial patterns of these two biases. This link between forced and coupled bias patterns is also confirmed by two sets of dedicated sensitivity experiments with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. The analysis of the sources of the atmospheric LH bias pattern reveals that the near-surface wind speed bias dominates the zonal structure of the LH bias and that the near-surface relative humidity dominates the east-west contrasts.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

2014-07-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5-degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment six-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Investigation on the impact of irregular fringe patterns of a single-fiber Mach-Zehnder interferometer on its sensing capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Kumar, Ashish

2018-07-01

A novel single-mode single-fiber (SMSF) MZI formed by cascading of two non-adiabatic fiber tapers, with stable and repeatable spectrum, has been found to be useful in sensing applications in recent times. A multimode interference based novel simulation approach is proposed to predict the sensing characteristics of SMSF-MZI and is validated with experimental observation. The proposed method includes solving of simultaneous non-homogenous equations for determining the amplitudes of the interfering modes excited in the tapered section of the interferometer. The simulated fringe pattern and the experimental spectral response converge to some important comprehension reported for the first time. A linear shift in output spectral response, of SMSF-MZI, due to change in optical path length induced by temperature/strain etc., is likely to be characterized by three modes interference occurring in the interference region of the interferometer. Whereas if the spectral shift starts saturating at moderately higher temperature/strain, then the formation of interference fringes are possibly governed by two modes interference. Further, it was also explained that a SMSF-MZI with variable fringe widths in its spectral pattern exhibits higher sensitivity than that of the SMSF-MZI having wavelength spectrum with uniform free spectral range. These findings are useful in selecting and predicting the sensitivity of a given SMSF-MZI, based on its spectrum, for sensing applications.

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

PubMed

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-08-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

Low Frequency Modulation of Extreme Temperature Regimes in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Black, Robert X.

2014-11-24

The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the easternmore » US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also studied in (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Although the climate models considered are able to represent the overall behavior of ETEs, the frequency of WWs (CAOs) is too high (low) in many models. While all models qualitatively replicate the overall structure of the PNA pattern, a small minority of models fails to properly simulate the NAO pattern. Model shortcomings in representing the NAO and PNA patterns have important consequences for simulating associated regional variability in surface air temperature and storm track behavior. The influence of PCMs on ETEs is underestimated in most CMIP5 models. In particular, none of the models are able to accurately simulate observed linkages between ETEs and the PDO, due to a gross misrepresentation of the PDO pattern in most models. Our results indicate that predictions of future CAO and WW behavior are currently limited by the ability of climate models to accurately represent PCM characteristics. Our study also considers the behavior of PCMs known as annular modes. It is determined that north-south movements in the stratospheric jet stream (related to the Polar Annular Mode) result in long-lasting impacts upon surface weather conditions including regional air temperature anomalies. The structure and dynamics of the stratospheric northern annular mode (or SNAM, related to changes in the strength of the stratospheric jet stream) was studied in CMIP5 models. In models with poorly-resolved stratospheres, the amplitude of SNAM at stratospheric altitudes is typically too weak, consistent with weaker stratospheric jet variability. However, this distinction does not carry over to the associated tropospheric signature of SNAM. A regional analysis illustrates that most CMIP5 models (regardless of whether the stratosphere is well-resolved) have anomalously weak and eastward shifted (compared to observed SNAM events) storm track and sea level pressure anomaly patterns during SNAM events. Analyses of stratosphere–troposphere coupling reveal that large-scale wave activity in the stratosphere is anomalously weak in CMIP5 models having poorly-resolved stratospheres, due to correspondingly weak upward propagation of wave activity from the troposphere. This suggests that such models have anomalously weak stratosphere-troposphere coupling in association with SNAM events. Paradoxically, however, there is little apparent impact upon the attendant tropospheric variability.« less

Evaluation of mean climate in a chemistry-climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Park, H.; Wie, J.; Park, R.; Lee, S.; Moon, B. K.

2017-12-01

Incorporation of the interactive chemistry is essential for understanding chemistry-climate interactions and feedback processes in climate models. Here we assess a newly developed chemistry-climate model (GRIMs-Chem), which is based on the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) including the aerosol direct effect as well as stratospheric linearized ozone chemistry (LINOZ). We conducted GRIMs-Chem with observed sea surface temperature during the period of 1979-2010, and compared the simulation results with observations and also with CMIP models. To measure the relative performance of our model, we define the quantitative performance metric using the Taylor diagram. This metric allow us to assess overall features in simulating multiple variables. Overall, our model better reproduce the zonal mean spatial pattern of temperature, horizontal wind, vertical motion, and relative humidity relative to other models. However, the model did not produce good simulations at upper troposphere (200 hPa). It is currently unclear which model processes are responsible for this. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program."

Interaction between neoclassical effects and ion temperature gradient turbulence in gradient- and flux-driven gyrokinetic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberparleiter, M.; Jenko, F.; Told, D.; Doerk, H.; Görler, T.

2016-04-01

Neoclassical and turbulent transport in tokamaks has been studied extensively over the past decades, but their possible interaction remains largely an open question. The two are only truly independent if the length scales governing each of them are sufficiently separate, i.e., if the ratio ρ* between ion gyroradius and the pressure gradient scale length is small. This is not the case in particularly interesting regions such as transport barriers. Global simulations of a collisional ion-temperature-gradient-driven microturbulence performed with the nonlinear global gyrokinetic code Gene are presented. In particular, comparisons are made between systems with and without neoclassical effects. In fixed-gradient simulations, the modified radial electric field is shown to alter the zonal flow pattern such that a significant increase in turbulent transport is observed for ρ*≳1 /300 . Furthermore, the dependency of the flux on the collisionality changes. In simulations with fixed power input, we find that the presence of neoclassical effects decreases the frequency and amplitude of intermittent turbulent transport bursts (avalanches) and thus plays an important role for the self-organisation behaviour.

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

2017-09-01

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

Improving Pyroelectric Energy Harvesting Using a Sandblast Etching Technique

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Chun-Ching; Siao, An-Shen

2013-01-01

Large amounts of low-grade heat are emitted by various industries and exhausted into the environment. This heat energy can be used as a free source for pyroelectric power generation. A three-dimensional pattern helps to improve the temperature variation rates in pyroelectric elements by means of lateral temperature gradients induced on the sidewalls of the responsive elements. A novel method using sandblast etching is successfully applied in fabricating the complex pattern of a vortex-like electrode. Both experiment and simulation show that the proposed design of the vortex-like electrode improved the electrical output of the pyroelectric cells and enhanced the efficiency of pyroelectric harvesting converters. A three-dimensional finite element model is generated by commercial software for solving the transient temperature fields and exploring the temperature variation rate in the PZT pyroelectric cells with various designs. The vortex-like type has a larger temperature variation rate than the fully covered type, by about 53.9%.The measured electrical output of the vortex-like electrode exhibits an obvious increase in the generated charge and the measured current, as compared to the fully covered electrode, by of about 47.1% and 53.1%, respectively. PMID:24025557

Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

2018-04-01

Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF-LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in a regional model.

Numerical Modeling of the Hydrothermal System at East Pacific Rise 9°50'N Including Anhydrite Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolandaivelu, K. P.; Lowell, R. P.

2015-12-01

To better understand the effects of anhydrite precipitation on mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems, we conducted 2-D numerical simulations of two-phase hydrothermal circulation in a NaCl-H2O fluid at the East Pacific Rise 9°50'N. The simulations were constrained by key observational thermal data and seismicity that suggests the fluid flow is primarily along axis with recharge focused into a small zone near a 4th order discontinuity. The simulations considered an open-top square box with a fixed seafloor pressure of 25 MPa, and nominal seafloor temperature of 10 °C. The sides of the box were assumed to be impermeable and insulated. We considered two models: a homogeneous model with a permeability of 10-13 m2 and a heterogeneous model in which layer 2A extrusives were given a higher permeability. Both models had a fixed bottom temperature distribution and initial porosity of 0.1. Assuming that anhydrite precipitation resulted from the decrease in solubility with increasing temperature as downwelling fluid gets heated, we calculated the rate of porosity decrease and sealing times in each cell at certain time snapshots in the simulations. The results showed that sealing would occur most rapidly in limited regions near the base of the high-temperature plumes, where complete sealing could occur on decadal time scales. Though more detailed analysis is needed, it appeared that the areas of rapid sealing would likely have negligible impact on the overall circulation pattern and hydrothermal vent temperatures. The simulations also indicated that sealing due to anhydrite precipitation would occur more slowly at the margins of the ascending plumes. The sealing times in the deep recharge zone determined in these simulations were considerably greater than estimated from 1D analytical calculations, suggesting that with a 2D model, focused recharge at the EPR 9°50'N site may occur, at least on a decadal time scale.

Degree of polymerization of glucan chains shapes the structure fluctuations and melting thermodynamics of a cellulose microfibril.

PubMed

Chang, Rakwoo; Gross, Adam S; Chu, Jhih-Wei

2012-07-19

A Staggered LATtice (SLAT) model is developed for modeling cellulose microfibrils. The simple representation of molecular packing and interactions employed in SLAT allows simulations of structure fluctuations and phase transition of cellulose microfibrils at sufficiently long and large scales for comparison with experiments. Glucan chains in the microfibril are modeled as connected monomers, each corresponding to a cellobiose subunit, and the surrounding space around the cellulose is composed of solvent cells. Interaction parameters of monomer-monomer interactions were parametrized based on the results of atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. The monomer-solvent interaction was optimized to give a melting temperature of ∼695 K for the 36-glucan chain model cellulose microfibril, which is consistent with the estimation based on experimental data. Monte Carlo simulations of the SLAT model also capture experimentally measured X-ray diffraction patterns of cellulose as a function of temperature, including the region of melting transition, as well as predict the highly flexible regions in the microfibril. Beyond the diameter of ∼3 nm, we found that melting temperature of the cellulose microfibril is not significantly shifted by changing the thickness. On the other hand, a slight decrease in the degree of polymerization of glucan chains is shown to enhance structure fluctuations through the ends of glucan chains, i.e., the defect sites, and thereby significantly reduce the melting temperature. Analysis of the sizes, densities, and lifetimes of defect structures in the microfibril indicates a significant extent of fluctuations on the surfaces even at room temperature and that defect statistics are strong but distinct functions of temperature and solvent quality. The SLAT model is the first of its kind for simulating cellulosic materials, and this work shows that it can be used to incorporate information obtained from atomistic simulations and experimental data to enable the aforementioned findings through computation.

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Simulations of Global Flows in Io’s Rarefied Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoey, William A.; Goldstein, D. B.; Varghese, P. L.; Trafton, L. M.; Walker, A. C.

2013-10-01

The sulfur-rich Ionian atmosphere is populated through a number of mechanisms, the most notable of which include sublimation from insolated surface frost deposits, material sputtering due to the impact of energetic ions from the Jovian plasma torus, and plume emission related to volcanic activity. While local flows are collisional at low altitudes on portions of the moon’s dayside, densities rapidly tend toward the free-molecular limit with altitude, necessitating non-continuum (rarefied gas dynamic) modeling and analysis. While recent work has modestly constrained the relative contributions of sputtering, sublimation, and volcanism to Io’s atmosphere, dynamic wind patterns driven by dayside sublimation and nightside condensation remain poorly understood. This work moves toward the explanation of mid-infrared observations that indicate an apparent super-rotating wind in Io’s atmosphere. In the present work, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method is employed in the modeling of Io’s rarefied atmosphere; simulations are computed in parallel, on a three-dimensional domain that spans the moon’s entire surface and extends hundreds of kilometers vertically, into the exobase. A wide range of physical phenomena have been incorporated into the atmospheric model, including: [1] the effects of planetary rotation; [2] surface temperature, surface frost inhomogeneity, and thermal inertia; [3] plasma heating and sputtering; [4] gas plumes from superimposed volcanic hot spots; and [5] multi-species chemistry. Furthermore, this work improves upon previous efforts by correcting for non-inertial effects in a moon-fixed reference frame. The influence of such effects on the development of global flow patterns and cyclonic wind is analyzed. The case in which Io transits Jupiter is considered, with the anti-Jovian hemisphere as the dayside. We predict that a circumlunar flow develops that is asymmetric about the subsolar point, and drives atmosphere from the warmer, dayside hemisphere toward the colder nightside. The resultant flow patterns, column densities, species concentrations, and temperatures are discussed in relation to previous simulations of Io in a pre-eclipse configuration. This research is supported via NASA-PATM.

Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

Effects of environmental temperature on the dynamics of ichthyophoniasis in Juvenile Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, J.L.; Vollenweider, Johanna J.; Grady, C.A.; Heintz, R.A.; Hershberger, P.K.

2011-01-01

The effects of temperature and infection by Ichthyophonus were examined in juvenile Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) maintained under simulated overwinter fasting conditions. In addition to defining parameters for a herring bioenergetics model (discussed in Vollenweider et al. this issue), these experiments provided new insights into factors influencing the infectivity and virulence of the parasite Ichthyophonus. In groups of fish with established disease, temperature variation had little effect on disease outcome. Ichthyophonus mortality outpaced that resulting from starvation alone. In newly infected fish, temperature variation significantly changed the mortality patterns related to disease. Both elevated and lowered temperatures suppressed disease-related mortality relative to ambient treatments. When parasite exposure dose decreased, an inverse relationship between infection prevalence and temperature was detected. These findings suggest interplay between temperature optima for parasite growth and host immune function and have implications for our understanding of how Ichthyophonus infections are established in wild fish populations.

Meteorological overview and plume transport patterns during Cal-Mex 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bei, Naifang; Li, Guohui; Zavala, Miguel; Barrera, Hugo; Torres, Ricardo; Grutter, Michel; Gutiérrez, Wilfredo; García, Manuel; Ruiz-Suarez, Luis Gerardo; Ortinez, Abraham; Guitierrez, Yaneth; Alvarado, Carlos; Flores, Israel; Molina, Luisa T.

2013-05-01

Cal-Mex 2010 Field Study is a US-Mexico collaborative project to investigate cross-border transport of emissions in the California-Mexico border region, which took place from May 15 to June 30, 2010. The current study presents an overview of the meteorological conditions and plume transport patterns during Cal-Mex 2010 based on the analysis of surface and vertical measurements (radiosonde, ceilometers and tethered balloon) conducted in Tijuana, Mexico and the modeling output using a trajectory model (FLEXPRT-WRF) and a regional model (WRF). The WRF model has been applied for providing the meteorological daily forecasts that are verified using the available observations. Both synoptic-scale and urban-scale forecasts (including wind, temperature, and humidity) agree reasonably well with the NCEP-FNL reanalysis data and the measurements; however, the WRF model frequently underestimates surface temperature and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height during nighttime compared to measurements. Based on the WRF-FLEXPART simulations with particles released in Tijuana in the morning, four representative plume transport patterns are identified as “plume-southeast”, “plume-southwest”, “plume-east” and “plume-north”, indicating the downwind direction of the plume; this will be useful for linking meteorological conditions with observed changes in trace gases and particular matter (PM). Most of the days during May and June are classified as plume-east and plume-southeast days, showing that the plumes in Tijuana are mostly carried to the southeast and east of Tijuana within the boundary layer during daytime. The plume transport directions are generally consistent with the prevailing wind directions on 850 hPa. The low level (below 800 m) wind, temperature, and moisture characteristics are different for each plume transport category according to the measurements from the tethered balloon. Future studies (such as using data assimilation and ensemble forecasts) will be performed to improve the temperature, wind and PBL simulations.

Understanding tropical upper tropospheric warming: The role of SSTs, convective parameterizations, and observational uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

2015-12-01

Recent research has compared CMIP5 general circulation model (GCM) simulations with satellite observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. Although the pattern of SST warming is important, this research demonstrated that models overestimate increases in static stability between the mid- to upper- tropical troposphere, even when they are forced with historical sea surface temperatures. This discrepancy between satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements (MSU) and GCMs is important because it has implications for the strength of the lapse rate and water vapor feedback. The apparent model-observational difference for changes in static stability in the tropical upper troposphere represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. In this work, we will use GCM simulations to examine the importance of the spatial pattern of SST warming and different convective parameterizations in determining the lapse rate changes in tropical troposphere. We will also consider uncertainties in MSU satellite observations, including changes in the diurnal sampling of temperature and instrument calibration biases when comparing GCMs with the observed record.

Spatial patterns of diagenesis during geothermal circulation in carbonate platforms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, A.M.; Sanford, W.; Whitaker, F.; Smart, P.

2001-01-01

Geothermal convection of seawater deep in carbonate platforms could provide the necessary supply of magnesium for dolomitization at temperatures high enough to overcome kinetic limitations. We used reactive-transport simulations to predict the rates and spatial patterns of dolomitization during geothermal convection in a platform that was 40 km across and 2 km thick. In the simulations, porosity and permeability decrease with depth to account for sediment compaction. Dolomitization of a platform consisting of medium grained (???0.05 mm) sediments occurred in a broad band ranging from ???2.5 km depth near the margin to ???1.5 km depth near the platform center. The area of dolomitization is deep enough that temperatures exceed ???50??C but not so deep that low permeabilities restrict mass transport. Complete dolomitization in the center of this zone is estimated to require at least 60 my. Incorporation of permeability contrasts, permeable beds, and reactive beds focused dolomitization strongly and reduced the estimated time required for dolomitization by as much as 50 percent. Dolomitization created magnesium-depleted, calcium-rich fluids in less than 10 ky, and results support a link between dolomitization and anhydrite precipitation where adequate sulfate is available.

Investigating Summer Thermal Stratification in Lake Ontario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, S. C.; Arifin, R. R.; Craig, P. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

Seasonal temperature variations establish strong vertical density gradients (thermoclines) between the epilimnion and hypolimnion. Accurate simulation of vertical mixing and seasonal stratification of large lakes is a crucial element of the thermodynamic coupling between lakes and the atmosphere in integrated models. Time-varying thermal stratification patterns can be accurately simulated with the versatile Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). Lake Ontario bathymetry was interpolated onto a 2-km-resolution curvilinear grid with vertical layering using a new approach in EFDC+, the so-called "sigma-zed" coordinate system which allows the number of vertical layers to be varied based on water depth. Inflow from the Niagara River and outflow to the St. Lawrence River in conjunction with hourly meteorological data from seven local weather stations plus three-hourly data from the North American Regional Reanalysis govern the hydrodynamic and thermodynamic responses of the Lake. EFDC+'s evaporation algorithm was updated to more accurately simulate net surface heat fluxes. A new vertical mixing scheme from Vinçon-Leite that implements different eddy diffusivity formulations above and below the thermocline was compared to results from the original Mellor-Yamada vertical mixing scheme. The model was calibrated by adjusting solar-radiation absorption coefficients in addition to background horizontal and vertical mixing parameters. Model skill was evaluated by comparing measured and simulated vertical temperature profiles at shallow (20 m) and deep (180 m) locations on the Lake. These model improvements, especially the new sigma-zed vertical discretization, accurately capture thermal-stratification patterns with low root-mean-squared errors when using the Vinçon-Leite vertical mixing scheme.

Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto

2018-05-01

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.

Effects of increasing aerosol on regional climate change in China: Observation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Leung, L.; Ghan, S. J.

2002-12-01

We present regional simulations of climate, aerosol properties, and direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol and analyze the pollutant emissions and observed climatic data during the latter decades of last century in China. The regional model generally captures the spatial distributions and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol extinction coefficient and aerosol optical depth are generally well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution, which provides a reliable foundation for estimating the radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol. The radiative forcing of aerosol is in the range of -1 to -14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to -9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the sub-regional scale. A strong maximum in negative radiative forcing corresponding to the maximum optical depth is found over the Sichuan Basin, where emission as well as relative humidity are high, and stagnant atmospheric conditions inhibit pollutants dispersion. Negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling, which is stronger in the range of -0.6 to -1.2oC in autumn and winter than in spring (-0.3 to -0.6oC) and summer (0.0 to -0.9oC) over the Sichuan Basin and East China due to more significant effects of cloud and precipitation in the summer and spring. Aerosol-induced cooling is mainly contributed by cooling in the daytime temperature. The cooling reaches a maximum and is statistically significant in the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including the asymmetric daily maximum and minimum temperature trends, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. It supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the Sichuan Basin and some parts of East China, which are exceptions to the large scale warming trend in the northern hemisphere, are at least partly related to the cooling induced by atmospheric aerosol loading that has been increasing since the middle of the last century.

Modeling of Dendritic Structure and Microsegregation in Solidification of Al-Rich Quaternary Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Ting; Zhu, Mingfang; Chen, Shuanglin; Cao, Weisheng

A two-dimensional cellular automaton (CA) model is coupled with a CALPHAD tool for the simulation of dendritic growth and microsegregation in solidification of quaternary alloys. The dynamics of dendritic growth is calculated according to the difference between the local equilibrium liquidus temperature and the actual temperature, incorporating with the Gibbs—Thomson effect and preferential dendritic growth orientations. Based on the local liquid compositions determined by solving the solutal transport equation in the domain, the local equilibrium liquidus temperature and the solid concentrations at the solid/liquid (SL) interface are calculated by the CALPHAD tool. The model was validated through the comparisons of the simulated results with the Scheil predictions for the solid composition profiles as a function of solid fraction in an Al-6wt%Cu-0.6wt%Mg-1wt%Si alloy. It is demonstrated that the model is capable of not only reproducing realistic dendrite morphologies, but also reasonably predicting microsegregation patterns in solidification of Al-rich quaternary alloys.

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

Diel time-courses of leaf growth in monocot and dicot species: endogenous rhythms and temperature effects.

PubMed

Poiré, Richard; Wiese-Klinkenberg, Anika; Parent, Boris; Mielewczik, Michael; Schurr, Ulrich; Tardieu, François; Walter, Achim

2010-06-01

Diel (24 h) leaf growth patterns were differently affected by temperature variations and the circadian clock in several plant species. In the monocotyledon Zea mays, leaf elongation rate closely followed changes in temperature. In the dicotyledons Nicotiana tabacum, Ricinus communis, and Flaveria bidentis, the effect of temperature regimes was less obvious and leaf growth exhibited a clear circadian oscillation. These differences were related neither to primary metabolism nor to altered carbohydrate availability for growth. The effect of endogenous rhythms on leaf growth was analysed under continuous light in Arabidopsis thaliana, Ricinus communis, Zea mays, and Oryza sativa. No rhythmic growth was observed under continuous light in the two monocotyledons, while growth rhythmicity persisted in the two dicotyledons. Based on model simulations it is concluded that diel leaf growth patterns in mono- and dicotyledons result from the additive effects of both circadian-clock-controlled processes and responses to environmental changes such as temperature and evaporative demand. Apparently very distinct diel leaf growth behaviour of monocotyledons and dicotyledons can thus be explained by the different degrees to which diel temperature variations affect leaf growth in the two groups of species which, in turn, depends on the extent of the leaf growth control by internal clocks.

Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Through the empirical orthogonal functions and power spectrum analysis, it was demonstrated that, compared with the pure simulations of CCSM4, MM made significant improvement of decadal variability for the gridded temperature in North America by merging the temperature-sensitive tree ring records.

A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles

PubMed Central

Colwell, Robert K.; Rangel, Thiago F.

2010-01-01

Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients. In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the elevational pattern of species richness in the model—and perhaps in nature, as well. PMID:20980317

Development of a short length combustor for a supersonic cruise turbofan engine using a 90 deg sector of a full annulus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, T. R.

1972-01-01

A performance development program has been conducted on a short length, double-annular, ram-induction combustor. The combustor was designed for a large augmented turbofan engine capable of sustained flight speeds up to Mach 3.0. Performance tests were conducted at an inlet temperature and Mach number simulating engine sea level takeoff conditions. At the design temperature rise of 1600 F, combustion efficiency was 100%, pattern factor was 0.20, and combined diffuser-combustor pressure loss was 4.4% or 1.12 times the diffuser inlet velocity head. A temperature rise in excess of 2400 F with a combustion efficiency of 94% was demonstrated.

Crystal accumulation in the Hanford Waste Treatment Plant high level waste melter: Summary of 2017 experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, K.; Fowley, M.

A full-scale, transparent mock-up of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Project High Level Waste glass melter riser and pour spout has been constructed to allow for testing with visual feedback of particle settling, accumulation, and resuspension when operating with a controlled fraction of crystals in the glass melt. Room temperature operation with silicone oil and magnetite particles simulating molten glass and spinel crystals, respectively, allows for direct observation of flow patterns and settling patterns. The fluid and particle mixture is recycled within the system for each test.

Sensitivity of simulated South America Climate to the Land Surface Schemes in RegCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llopart, Marta; da Rocha, Rosmeri; Reboita, Michelle; Cuadra, Santiago

2017-04-01

This work evaluates the impact of two land surface parameterizations on the simulated climate and its variability over South America (SA). Two numerical experiments using RegCM4 coupled with Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (RegBATS) and Community Land Model version 3.5 (RegCLM) land surface schemes are compared. For the period 1979-2008, RegCM4 simulations used 50 km horizontal grid spacing and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions. For the period studied, both simulations represent the main observed spatial patterns of rainfall, air temperature and low level circulation over SA. However, concerning the precipitation intensity, RegCLM values are closer to the observations than RegBATS (it is in general, wetter) over most of SA. RegCLM also provides smaller biases for air temperature. Over the Amazon basin, the amplitudes of the annual cycles of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are higher in RegBATS than in RegCLM. This indicates that RegBATS provides large amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere and has more available energy to increase the boundary layer and make it reach the level of free convection (higher sensible heat flux values) resulting in higher precipitation rates and a large wet bias. RegCLM is closer to the observations than RegBATS, presenting smaller wet and warm biases over the Amazon basin. On an interannual scale, the magnitudes of the anomalies of the precipitation and air temperature simulated by RegCLM are closer to the observations. In general, RegBATS simulates higher magnitude for the interannual variability signal.

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

Non-coaxial-based microwave ablation antennas for creating symmetric and asymmetric coagulation zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohtashami, Yahya; Luyen, Hung; Hagness, Susan C.; Behdad, Nader

2018-06-01

We present an investigation of a new class of microwave ablation (MWA) antennas capable of producing axially symmetric or asymmetric heating patterns. The antenna design is based on a dipole fed by a balanced parallel-wire transmission line. The angle and direction of the deployed dipole arms are used to control the heating pattern. We analyzed the specific absorption rate and temperature profiles using electromagnetic and thermal simulations. Two prototypes were fabricated and tested in ex vivo ablation experiments: one was designed to produce symmetric heating patterns and the other was designed to generate asymmetric heating patterns. Both fabricated prototypes exhibited good impedance matching and produced localized coagulation zones as predicted by the simulations. The prototype operating in porcine muscle created an ˜10 cm3 symmetric ablation zone after 10 min of ablation with a power level of 18 W. The prototype operating in egg white created an ˜4 cm3 asymmetric ablation zone with a directionality ratio of 40% after 5 min of ablation with a power level of 25 W. The proposed MWA antenna design shows promise for minimally invasive treatment of tumors in various clinical scenarios where, depending on the situation, a symmetric or an asymmetric heating pattern may be needed.

TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor

PubMed Central

Olivares, Erick; Salgado, Simón; Maidana, Jean Paul; Herrera, Gaspar; Campos, Matías; Madrid, Rodolfo; Orio, Patricio

2015-01-01

Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs) encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response). During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response). To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics). However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature). Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization. PMID:26426259

Small pelagic fish reproductive strategies in upwelling systems: A natal homing evolutionary model to study environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, T.; Colas, F.; Lett, C.; Echevin, V.; Cubillos, L. A.; Tam, J.; Chlaida, M.; Mullon, C.; Fréon, P.

2009-12-01

Although little is known about the individual-level mechanisms that influence small pelagic fish species’ reproductive strategy, Mullon et al. [Mullon, C., Cury, P., Penven, P., 2002. Evolutionary individual-based model for the recruitment of anchovy ( Engraulis capensis) in the southern Benguela. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59, 910-922] showed that the observed anchovy spawning patterns in the southern Benguela Current system off South Africa could be accurately reproduced by simulating a natal homing reproductive strategy, i.e. individuals spawning at their natal date and place. Here we used a similar method, i.e., an individual-based model of the natal homing reproductive strategy, and applied it to other upwelling systems: the northern Humboldt Current system off Peru, the southern Humboldt Current system off Chile and the central Canary Current system off Morocco. We investigated the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and seasonal spawning patterns that emerged after applying different environmental constraints in the model, and compared these to observed spawning patterns of sardine and anchovy in their respective systems. The selective environmental constraints tested were: (1) lethal temperature; (2) retention over the continental shelf; and (3) avoidance of dispersive structures. Simulated horizontal spatial patterns and seasonal patterns compared reasonably well with field data, but vertical patterns in most cases did not. Similarly to what was found for the southern Benguela, temperature was a determinant constraint in the southern Humboldt. The shelf retention constraint led to selection of a particular spawning season during the period of minimum upwelling in all three of the upwelling regions considered, and to spatial patterns that matched observed anchovy spawning off Chile and sardine spawning off Morocco. The third constraint, avoidance of dispersive structures, led to the emergence of a spawning season during the period of maximum upwelling off Chile and Morocco, but not in Peru. The most accurate representation of observed spatio-temporal spawning patterns off Peru was achieved through a combination of shelf retention and non-dispersion constraints.

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE PAGES

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; ...

2017-11-06

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

High aspect ratio 10-nm-scale nanoaperture arrays with template-guided metal dewetting

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying Min; Lu, Liangxing; Srinivasan, Bharathi Madurai; Asbahi, Mohamed; Zhang, Yong Wei; Yang, Joel K. W.

2015-01-01

We introduce an approach to fabricate ordered arrays of 10-nm-scale silica-filled apertures in a metal film without etching or liftoff. Using low temperature (<400°C) thermal dewetting of metal films guided by nano-patterned templates, apertures with aspect ratios up to 5:1 are demonstrated. Apertures form spontaneously during the thermal process without need for further processing. Although the phenomenon of dewetting has been well studied, this is the first demonstration of its use in the fabrication of nanoapertures in a spatially controllable manner. In particular, the achievement of 10-nm length-scale patterning at high aspect ratio with thermal dewetting is unprecedented. By varying the nanotemplate design, we show its strong influence over the positions and sizes of the nanoapertures. In addition, we construct a three-dimensional phase field model of metal dewetting on nano-patterned substrates. The simulation data obtained closely corroborates our experimental results and reveals new insights to template dewetting at the nanoscale. Taken together, this fabrication method and simulation model form a complete toolbox for 10-nm-scale patterning using template-guided dewetting that could be extended to a wide range of material systems and geometries. PMID:25858792

High aspect ratio 10-nm-scale nanoaperture arrays with template-guided metal dewetting.

PubMed

Wang, Ying Min; Lu, Liangxing; Srinivasan, Bharathi Madurai; Asbahi, Mohamed; Zhang, Yong Wei; Yang, Joel K W

2015-04-10

We introduce an approach to fabricate ordered arrays of 10-nm-scale silica-filled apertures in a metal film without etching or liftoff. Using low temperature (<400°C) thermal dewetting of metal films guided by nano-patterned templates, apertures with aspect ratios up to 5:1 are demonstrated. Apertures form spontaneously during the thermal process without need for further processing. Although the phenomenon of dewetting has been well studied, this is the first demonstration of its use in the fabrication of nanoapertures in a spatially controllable manner. In particular, the achievement of 10-nm length-scale patterning at high aspect ratio with thermal dewetting is unprecedented. By varying the nanotemplate design, we show its strong influence over the positions and sizes of the nanoapertures. In addition, we construct a three-dimensional phase field model of metal dewetting on nano-patterned substrates. The simulation data obtained closely corroborates our experimental results and reveals new insights to template dewetting at the nanoscale. Taken together, this fabrication method and simulation model form a complete toolbox for 10-nm-scale patterning using template-guided dewetting that could be extended to a wide range of material systems and geometries.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Charge-regulation phase transition on surface lattices of titratable sites adjacent to electrolyte solutions: An analog of the Ising antiferromagnet in a magnetic field

PubMed Central

Shore, Joel D.; Thurston, George M.

2018-01-01

We report a charge-patterning phase transition on two-dimensional square lattices of titratable sites, here regarded as protonation sites, placed in a low-dielectric medium just below the planar interface between this medium and a salt solution. We calculate the work-of-charging matrix of the lattice with use of a linear Debye-Hückel model, as input to a grand-canonical partition function for the distribution of occupancy patterns. For a large range of parameter values, this model exhibits an approximate inverse cubic power-law decrease of the voltage produced by an individual charge, as a function of its in-lattice separation from neighboring titratable sites. Thus, the charge coupling voltage biases the local probabilities of proton binding as a function of the occupancy of sites for many neighbors beyond the nearest ones. We find that even in the presence of these longer-range interactions, the site couplings give rise to a phase transition in which the site occupancies exhibit an alternating, checkerboard pattern that is an analog of antiferromagnetic ordering. The overall strength W of this canonical charge coupling voltage, per unit charge, is a function of the Debye length, the charge depth, the Bjerrum length, and the dielectric coefficients of the medium and the solvent. The alternating occupancy transition occurs above a curve of thermodynamic critical points in the (pH-pK,W) plane, the curve representing a charge-regulation analog of variation of the Néel temperature of an Ising antiferromagnet as a function of an applied, uniform magnetic field. The analog of a uniform magnetic field in the antiferromagnet problem is a combination of pH-pK and W, and 1/W is the analog of the temperature in the antiferromagnet problem. We use Monte Carlo simulations to study the occupancy patterns of the titratable sites, including interactions out to the 37th nearest-neighbor category (a distance of 74 lattice constants), first validating simulations through comparison with exact and approximate results for the nearest-neighbor case. We then use the simulations to map the charge-patterning phase boundary in the (pH-pK,W) plane. The physical parameters that determine W provide a framework for identifying and designing real surfaces that could exhibit charge-patterning phase transitions. PMID:26764648

Charge-regulation phase transition on surface lattices of titratable sites adjacent to electrolyte solutions: An analog of the Ising antiferromagnet in a magnetic field.

PubMed

Shore, Joel D; Thurston, George M

2015-12-01

We report a charge-patterning phase transition on two-dimensional square lattices of titratable sites, here regarded as protonation sites, placed in a low-dielectric medium just below the planar interface between this medium and a salt solution. We calculate the work-of-charging matrix of the lattice with use of a linear Debye-Hückel model, as input to a grand-canonical partition function for the distribution of occupancy patterns. For a large range of parameter values, this model exhibits an approximate inverse cubic power-law decrease of the voltage produced by an individual charge, as a function of its in-lattice separation from neighboring titratable sites. Thus, the charge coupling voltage biases the local probabilities of proton binding as a function of the occupancy of sites for many neighbors beyond the nearest ones. We find that even in the presence of these longer-range interactions, the site couplings give rise to a phase transition in which the site occupancies exhibit an alternating, checkerboard pattern that is an analog of antiferromagnetic ordering. The overall strength W of this canonical charge coupling voltage, per unit charge, is a function of the Debye length, the charge depth, the Bjerrum length, and the dielectric coefficients of the medium and the solvent. The alternating occupancy transition occurs above a curve of thermodynamic critical points in the (pH-pK,W) plane, the curve representing a charge-regulation analog of variation of the Néel temperature of an Ising antiferromagnet as a function of an applied, uniform magnetic field. The analog of a uniform magnetic field in the antiferromagnet problem is a combination of pH-pK and W, and 1/W is the analog of the temperature in the antiferromagnet problem. We use Monte Carlo simulations to study the occupancy patterns of the titratable sites, including interactions out to the 37th nearest-neighbor category (a distance of √74 lattice constants), first validating simulations through comparison with exact and approximate results for the nearest-neighbor case. We then use the simulations to map the charge-patterning phase boundary in the (pH-pK,W) plane. The physical parameters that determine W provide a framework for identifying and designing real surfaces that could exhibit charge-patterning phase transitions.

Charge-regulation phase transition on surface lattices of titratable sites adjacent to electrolyte solutions: An analog of the Ising antiferromagnet in a magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shore, Joel D.; Thurston, George M.

2015-12-01

We report a charge-patterning phase transition on two-dimensional square lattices of titratable sites, here regarded as protonation sites, placed in a low-dielectric medium just below the planar interface between this medium and a salt solution. We calculate the work-of-charging matrix of the lattice with use of a linear Debye-Hückel model, as input to a grand-canonical partition function for the distribution of occupancy patterns. For a large range of parameter values, this model exhibits an approximate inverse cubic power-law decrease of the voltage produced by an individual charge, as a function of its in-lattice separation from neighboring titratable sites. Thus, the charge coupling voltage biases the local probabilities of proton binding as a function of the occupancy of sites for many neighbors beyond the nearest ones. We find that even in the presence of these longer-range interactions, the site couplings give rise to a phase transition in which the site occupancies exhibit an alternating, checkerboard pattern that is an analog of antiferromagnetic ordering. The overall strength W of this canonical charge coupling voltage, per unit charge, is a function of the Debye length, the charge depth, the Bjerrum length, and the dielectric coefficients of the medium and the solvent. The alternating occupancy transition occurs above a curve of thermodynamic critical points in the (p H-p K ,W ) plane, the curve representing a charge-regulation analog of variation of the Néel temperature of an Ising antiferromagnet as a function of an applied, uniform magnetic field. The analog of a uniform magnetic field in the antiferromagnet problem is a combination of p H-p K and W , and 1 /W is the analog of the temperature in the antiferromagnet problem. We use Monte Carlo simulations to study the occupancy patterns of the titratable sites, including interactions out to the 37th nearest-neighbor category (a distance of √{74 } lattice constants), first validating simulations through comparison with exact and approximate results for the nearest-neighbor case. We then use the simulations to map the charge-patterning phase boundary in the (p H-p K ,W ) plane. The physical parameters that determine W provide a framework for identifying and designing real surfaces that could exhibit charge-patterning phase transitions.

Automation of temperature control for large-array microwave surface applicators.

PubMed

Zhou, L; Fessenden, P

1993-01-01

An adaptive temperature control system has been developed for the microstrip antenna array applicators used for large area superficial hyperthermia. A recursive algorithm which allows rapid power updating even for large antenna arrays and accounts for coupling between neighbouring antennas has been developed, based on a first-order difference equation model. Surface temperatures from the centre of each antenna element are the primary feedback information. Also used are temperatures from additional surface probes placed within the treatment field to protect locations vulnerable to excessive temperatures. In addition, temperatures at depth are observed by mappers and utilized to restrain power to reduce treatment-related complications. Experiments on a tissue-equivalent phantom capable of dynamic differential cooling have successfully verified this temperature control system. The results with the 25 (5 x 5) antenna array have demonstrated that during dynamic water cooling changes and other experimentally simulated disturbances, the controlled temperatures converge to desired temperature patterns with a precision close to the resolution of the thermometry system (0.1 degree C).

Numerical simulation of forced convection in a duct subjected to microwave heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Kuznetsov, A. V.; Sandeep, K. P.

2007-01-01

In this paper, forced convection in a rectangular duct subjected to microwave heating is investigated. Three types of non-Newtonian liquids flowing through the duct are considered, specifically, apple sauce, skim milk, and tomato sauce. A finite difference time domain method is used to solve Maxwell’s equations simulating the electromagnetic field. The three-dimensional temperature field is determined by solving the coupled momentum, energy, and Maxwell’s equations. Numerical results show that the heating pattern strongly depends on the dielectric properties of the fluid in the duct and the geometry of the microwave heating system.

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures themore » main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.« less

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

The influence of glacier ice temperature on the long-term evolution of longitudinal valley profiles: Can a landscape escape from the "glacial buzzsaw"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dühnforth, M.; Anderson, R. S.; Colgan, W.

2012-04-01

The long-term pattern of glacial erosion in alpine valleys leads to characteristic longitudinal valley profiles. While landscape evolution models commonly take glacier sliding velocity to be the dominant control on erosion, the influence of spatial and temporal variations in glacier ice temperature on the efficiency of erosion over long timescales (>1 Ma) remains largely unexplored. Yet, the thermal field of a glacier can strongly influence the pattern of sliding. Temperate glaciers, with basal temperatures at the pressure melting point (PMP), slide whenever and wherever the glacial hydrology produces high water pressures. In contrast, in polythermal glaciers, erosion efficiency is strongly linked to basal ice temperature; when and where basal ice temperatures are below the PMP sliding, and hence erosion, are limited. We present results from numerical models in which we explore the influence of variations in glacier ice temperature on long-term glacial erosion processes in alpine valleys. These simulations are motivated by the persistent appeal of geomorphologists to polar glacial conditions to explain sites of unusually low glacial erosion rates. We employ a transient 1D (flowline) ice flow model that numerically solves the continuity equation for ice, and includes a depth-averaged approximation for longitudinal coupling stress. We prescribe separate winter and summer surface mass balance profiles: a capped elevation-dependent snowfall pattern in winter, and we capture both daily and seasonal oscillations in ablation using a positive degree day algorithm in summer. The steady-state ice temperature within the glacier is calculated using the conventional 2D (cross-sectional) heat equation (i.e. diffusion, advection and production terms) at a prescribed interval. The ice temperature model uses the surface temperature at the end of each melt season as the surface boundary condition, and a prescribed geothermal gradient as the basal boundary condition. Basal sliding is limited to sites where the basal ice is at the PMP. Glacial erosion rate is parameterized as a function of sliding velocity, which in turn depends upon a flotation fraction that is parameterized to account for annual variations in the glacial hydrologic system. We explore the long-term glacial erosion pattern when the landscape is subjected to different rock uplift rates, and to climates ranging from continental to maritime. Of specific interest to us are conditions that favor polythermal glaciers in which the basal ice at high elevations becomes cold. In such cases, rock uplift can outpace limited glacial erosion, allowing high peaks to escape from the "glacial buzzsaw" while basal ice at lower elevations remains at the PMP, allowing sliding and erosion. These simulations also allow a more formal assessment of the conditions under which cold basal ice can be invoked to explain low glacial erosion rates, and the conditions under which variations in rock erodibility may instead be invoked as the major control on erosion.

Rationalizing the role of structural motif and underlying electronic structure in the finite temperature behavior of atomic clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susan, Anju; Joshi, Kavita

2014-04-01

Melting in finite size systems is an interesting but complex phenomenon. Many factors affect melting and owing to their interdependencies it is a challenging task to rationalize their roles in the phase transition. In this work, we demonstrate how structural motif of the ground state influences melting transition in small clusters. Here, we report a case with clusters of aluminum and gallium having same number of atoms, valence electrons, and similar structural motif of the ground state but drastically different melting temperatures. We have employed Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics to simulate the solid-like to liquid-like transition in these clusters. Our simulations have reproduced the experimental trends fairly well. Further, the detailed analysis of isomers has brought out the role of the ground state structure and underlying electronic structure in the finite temperature behavior of these clusters. For both clusters, isomers accessible before cluster melts have striking similarities and does have strong influence of the structural motif of the ground state. Further, the shape of the heat capacity curve is similar in both the cases but the transition is more spread over for Al36 which is consistent with the observed isomerization pattern. Our simulations also suggest a way to characterize transition region on the basis of accessibility of the ground state at a specific temperature.

Influence of low-temperature resistivity on fast electron transport in solids: scaling to fast ignition electron beam parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, P.; MacLellan, D. A.; Butler, N. M. H.; Dance, R. J.; Gray, R. J.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Neely, D.; Desjarlais, M. P.

2015-06-01

The role of low-temperature electrical resistivity in defining the transport properties of mega-Ampere currents of fast (MeV) electrons in solids is investigated using 3D hybrid particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. By considering resistivity profiles intermediate to the ordered (lattice) and disordered forms of two example materials, lithium and silicon, it is shown that both the magnitude of the resistivity and the shape of the resistivity-temperature profile at low temperatures strongly affect the self-generated resistive magnetic fields and the onset of resistive instabilities, and thus the overall fast electron beam transport pattern. The scaling of these effects to the giga-Ampere electron currents required for the fast ignition scheme for inertial fusion is also explored.

Nanoflare vs Footpoint Heating : Observational Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winebarger, Amy; Alexander, Caroline; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper

2015-01-01

Time lag analysis shows very long time lags between all channel pairs. Impulsive heating cannot address these long time lags. 3D Simulations of footpoint heating shows a similar pattern of time lags (magnitude and distribution) to observations. Time lags and relative peak intensities may be able to differentiate between TNE and impulsive heating solutions. Adding a high temperature channel (like XRT Be-­thin) may improve diagnostics.

Automated numerical simulation of biological pattern formation based on visual feedback simulation framework

PubMed Central

Sun, Mingzhu; Xu, Hui; Zeng, Xingjuan; Zhao, Xin

2017-01-01

There are various fantastic biological phenomena in biological pattern formation. Mathematical modeling using reaction-diffusion partial differential equation systems is employed to study the mechanism of pattern formation. However, model parameter selection is both difficult and time consuming. In this paper, a visual feedback simulation framework is proposed to calculate the parameters of a mathematical model automatically based on the basic principle of feedback control. In the simulation framework, the simulation results are visualized, and the image features are extracted as the system feedback. Then, the unknown model parameters are obtained by comparing the image features of the simulation image and the target biological pattern. Considering two typical applications, the visual feedback simulation framework is applied to fulfill pattern formation simulations for vascular mesenchymal cells and lung development. In the simulation framework, the spot, stripe, labyrinthine patterns of vascular mesenchymal cells, the normal branching pattern and the branching pattern lacking side branching for lung branching are obtained in a finite number of iterations. The simulation results indicate that it is easy to achieve the simulation targets, especially when the simulation patterns are sensitive to the model parameters. Moreover, this simulation framework can expand to other types of biological pattern formation. PMID:28225811

Automated numerical simulation of biological pattern formation based on visual feedback simulation framework.

PubMed

Sun, Mingzhu; Xu, Hui; Zeng, Xingjuan; Zhao, Xin

2017-01-01

There are various fantastic biological phenomena in biological pattern formation. Mathematical modeling using reaction-diffusion partial differential equation systems is employed to study the mechanism of pattern formation. However, model parameter selection is both difficult and time consuming. In this paper, a visual feedback simulation framework is proposed to calculate the parameters of a mathematical model automatically based on the basic principle of feedback control. In the simulation framework, the simulation results are visualized, and the image features are extracted as the system feedback. Then, the unknown model parameters are obtained by comparing the image features of the simulation image and the target biological pattern. Considering two typical applications, the visual feedback simulation framework is applied to fulfill pattern formation simulations for vascular mesenchymal cells and lung development. In the simulation framework, the spot, stripe, labyrinthine patterns of vascular mesenchymal cells, the normal branching pattern and the branching pattern lacking side branching for lung branching are obtained in a finite number of iterations. The simulation results indicate that it is easy to achieve the simulation targets, especially when the simulation patterns are sensitive to the model parameters. Moreover, this simulation framework can expand to other types of biological pattern formation.

Enhanced tagging of light utilizing acoustic radiation force with speckle pattern analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakili, Ali; Hollmann, Joseph L.; Holt, R. Glynn; DiMarzio, Charles A.

2017-10-01

In optical imaging, the depth and resolution are limited due to scattering. Unlike light, scattering of ultrasound (US) waves in tissue is negligible. Hybrid imaging methods such as US-modulated optical tomography (UOT) use the advantages of both modalities. UOT tags light by inducing phase change caused by modulating the local index of refraction of the medium. The challenge in UOT is detecting the small signal. The displacement induced by the acoustic radiation force (ARF) is another US effect that can be utilized to tag the light. It induces greater phase change, resulting in a stronger signal. Moreover, the absorbed acoustic energy generates heat, resulting in change in the index of refraction and a strong phase change. The speckle pattern is governed by the phase of the interfering scattered waves; hence, speckle pattern analysis can obtain information about displacement and temperature changes. We have presented a model to simulate the insonation processes. Simulation results based on fixed-particle Monte Carlo and experimental results show that the signal acquired by utilizing ARF is stronger compared to UOT. The introduced mean irradiance change (MIC) signal reveals both thermal and mechanical effects of the focused US beam in different timescales. Simulation results suggest that variation in the MIC signal can be used to generate a displacement image of the medium.

Diurnal changes of photosynthetic quantum yield in the intertidal macroalga Sargassum thunbergii under simulated tidal emersion conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yong Qiang; Zhang, Quan Sheng; Tang, Yong Zheng; Li, Xue Meng; Liu, Hong Liang; Li, Li Xia

2013-07-01

In this study, a three-way factorial experimental design was used to investigate the diurnal changes of photosynthetic activity of the intertidal macroalga Sargassum thunbergii in response to temperature, tidal pattern and desiccation during a simulated diurnal light cycle. The maximum (Fv/Fm) and effective (ΦPSII) quantum yields of photosystem II (PSII) were estimated by chlorophyll fluorescence using a pulse amplitude modulated fluorometer. Results showed that this species exhibited sun-adapted characteristics, as evidenced by the daily variation of Fv/Fm and ΦPSII. Both yield values decreased with increasing irradiance towards noon and recovered rapidly in the afternoon suggesting a dynamic photoinhibition. The photosynthetic quantum yield of S. thunbergii thalli varied significantly with temperature, tidal pattern and desiccation. Thalli were more susceptible to light-induced damage at high temperature of 25 °C and showed complete recovery of photosynthetic activity only when exposed to 8 °C. In contrast with the mid-morning low tide period, although there was an initial increase in photosynthetic yield during emersion, thalli showed a greater degree of decline at the end of emersion and remained less able to recover when low tide occurred at mid-afternoon. Short-term air exposure of 2 h did not significantly influence the photosynthesis. However, when exposed to moderate conditions (4 h desiccation at 15 °C or 6 h desiccation at 8 °C), a significant inhibition of photosynthesis was followed by partial or complete recovery upon re-immersion in late afternoon. Only extreme conditions (4 h desiccation at 25 °C or 6 h desiccation at 15 °C or 25 °C) resulted in the complete inhibition, with little indication of recovery until the following morning, implying the occurrence of chronic PSII damage. Based on the magnitude of effect, desiccation was the predominant negative factor affecting the photosynthesis under the simulated daytime irradiance period. These results may explain the distribution pattern of this species in natural habitats, where it is generally restricted to tide pools in the intertidal zone of wave-swept rocky shores which could provide shelter from desiccation stress during low tide.

Ground-state candidate for the classical dipolar kagome Ising antiferromagnet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chioar, I. A.; Rougemaille, N.; Canals, B.

2016-06-01

We have investigated the low-temperature thermodynamic properties of the classical dipolar kagome Ising antiferromagnet using Monte Carlo simulations, in the quest for the ground-state manifold. In spite of the limitations of a single-spin-flip approach, we managed to identify certain ordering patterns in the low-temperature regime and we propose a candidate for this unknown state. This configuration presents some intriguing features and is fully compatible with the extrapolations of the at-equilibrium thermodynamic behavior sampled so far, making it a very likely choice for the dipolar long-range ordered state of the classical kagome Ising antiferromagnet.

Considerations of temperature in the context of the persistence classification in the EU.

PubMed

Matthies, Michael; Beulke, Sabine

2017-01-01

Simulation degradation studies for industrial chemicals, biocidal products and plant protection products are required in the EU to estimate half-lives in soil, water and sediment for the comparison to persistence criteria for hazard (P/vP) assessment, and for use in exposure assessments. There is a discrepancy between European regulatory approaches regarding the temperature at which degradation half-lives should be (1) measured in simulation degradation testing of environmental compartments, and (2) compared to the P/vP criteria. In this paper, an opinion is provided on the options for the experimental temperature and extrapolation to other conditions. A review of the historical development of persistence criteria did not give conclusive evidence of the temperature at which the half-lives that underpin the P-criteria were measured, but room temperature is likely. Half-lives measured at 20 °C are in line with the intentions of some international agreements, but in the EU there is a continued political debate regarding the relevant temperature for comparison with persistence criteria. Measuring degradation at 20 °C has the advantage that metabolites/transformation products can be identified with greater accuracy, and that kinetic fits to determine half-lives for parent compounds and metabolites carry less uncertainty. Extrapolation of half-lives to lower temperatures is possible for assessing environmental exposure, but the uncertainty of the persistence classification is smaller when measured half-lives are used for direct comparison with P/vP criteria, without extrapolation. Model simulations demonstrate the pattern of concentrations that can be expected for realistic worst case climate scenarios in the EU based on the half-life of 120 days in soil at 20 °C and of 40 days in water at 20 °C, and their temporal and spatial variability.

Establishment and analysis of a High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of the water-energy cycle in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xiaohang; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping; Zheng, Zhiyuan

For better prediction and understanding of land-atmospheric interaction, in-situ observed meteorological data acquired from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the monthly Green Vegetation Coverage (GVF) data, which was calculated using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (EOS-MODIS) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) system. Furthermore, the WRF model produced a High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of the water-energy cycle in China (HRADC). This dataset has a horizontal resolution of 25 km for near surface meteorological data, such as air temperature, humidity, wind vectors and pressure (19 levels); soil temperature and moisture (four levels); surface temperature; downward/upward short/long radiation; 3-h latent heat flux; sensible heat flux; and ground heat flux. In this study, we 1) briefly introduce the cycling 3D-Var assimilation method and 2) compare results of meteorological elements, such as 2 m temperature and precipitation generated by the HRADC with the gridded observation data from CMA, and surface temperature and specific humidity with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) output data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). We find that the simulated results of monthly 2 m temperature from HRADC is improved compared with the control simulation and has effectively reproduced the observed patterns. The simulated special distribution of ground surface temperature and specific humidity from HRADC are much closer to GLDAS outputs. The spatial distribution of root mean square errors (RMSE) and bias of 2 m temperature between observations and HRADC is reduced compared with the bias between observations and the control run. The monthly spatial distribution of surface temperature and specific humidity from HRADC is consistent with the GLDAS outputs over China. This study could improve the land surface parameters by utilizing remote sensing data and could further improve atmospheric elements with a data assimilation system. This work provides an effective attempt at combining multi-source data with different spatial and temporal scales into numerical simulations, and the simulated results could be used in further research on the long-term climatic effects and characteristics of the water-energy cycle over China.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parlinski, K.; Hashi, Y.; Tsunekawa, S.

A model of lanthanum orthoniobate which possesses a ferroelastic tetragonal-monoclinic phase transition is proposed. It contains only one particle per unit cell, but it is constructed consistently with symmetry changes at the phase transition. The model parameters are chosen to reproduce the bare soft mode, degree of deformation of the tetragonal unit cell to monoclinic one, and the phase transition temperature. The ferroelastic system with free boundary conditions was simulated by the molecular dynamics technique, and the second order phase transition was reproduced. The studied annealing process shows formation of the stripe lenticular domain pattern, which has been interrupted bymore » appearance of a temporary band of perpendicularly oriented lenticular domains. The maps contain W{sup {prime}}-type domain walls whose orientations are fixed only by interplay of potential parameters and not by symmetry elements. The simulated domain pattern has the same features as those observed by transmission electron microscopy. {copyright} {ital 1997 Materials Research Society.}« less

Frustration in Condensed Matter and Protein Folding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorelli, S.; Cabot, A.; Sundarprasad, N.; Boekema, C.

Using computer modeling we study frustration in condensed matter and protein folding. Frustration is due to random and/or competing interactions. One definition of frustration is the sum of squares of the differences between actual and expected distances between characters. If this sum is non-zero, then the system is said to have frustration. A simulation tracks the movement of characters to lower their frustration. Our research is conducted on frustration as a function of temperature using a logarithmic scale. At absolute zero, the relaxation for frustration is a power function for randomly assigned patterns or an exponential function for regular patterns like Thomson figures. These findings have implications for protein folding; we attempt to apply our frustration modeling to protein folding and dynamics. We use coding in Python to simulate different ways a protein can fold. An algorithm is being developed to find the lowest frustration (and thus energy) states possible. Research supported by SJSU & AFC.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Exploring Protein Stability by Comparative Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Homologous Hyperthermophilic, Mesophilic, and Psychrophilic Proteins.

PubMed

Khan, Sara; Farooq, Umar; Kurnikova, Maria

2016-11-28

In the present studies, we analyzed the influence of temperature on the stability and dynamics of the α subunit of tryptophan synthase (TRPS) from hyperthermophilic, mesophilic, and psychrophilic homologues at different temperatures by molecular dynamics simulations. Employing different indicators such as root-mean-square deviations, root-mean-square fluctuations, principal component analysis, and free energy landscapes, this study manifests the diverse behavior of these homologues with changes in temperature. Especially, an enhancement in the collective motions, classified as representative motions, is observed at high temperature. Similarly, the criterion for the selection of electrostatic interactions in terms of their life span (duty cycle) has indeed helped in identifying the short- and long-lived electrostatic interactions and how they affect the protein's overall stability at different temperatures. Rigidity and flexibility patterns of the homologous proteins are examined using FIRST software along with the calculation of duty cycles with various threshold limits at different temperatures. Rigid cluster decomposition in TRPS of psychrophilic, mesophilic, and hyperthermophilic origin identifies the flexible and rigid regions in the protein. Early loss of rigidity is observed in mesophilic TRPS via loss of contact between the major fragments of the protein compared with the other homologues. In spite of the high similarity of their three-dimensional structures, the overall responses of the three proteins to varying temperatures are significantly different.

Experimental and modeling study of thermal exposure of a self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA).

PubMed

Donnelly, Michelle K; Yang, Jiann C

2015-08-01

An experimental apparatus designed to study firefighter safety equipment exposed to a thermal environment was developed. The apparatus consisted of an elevated temperature flow loop with the ability to heat the air stream up to 200°C. The thermal and flow conditions at the test section were characterized using thermocouples and bi-directional probes. The safety equipment examined in this study was a self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA), including a facepiece and an air cylinder. The SCBA facepiece was placed on a mannequin headform and coupled to a breathing simulator that was programmed with a prescribed breathing pattern. The entire SCBA assembly was placed in the test section of the flow loop for these thermal exposure experiments. Three air stream temperatures, 100°C, 150°C, and 200°C, were used with the average air speed at the test section set at 1.4m/s and thermal exposure durations up to 1200 s. Measurements were made using type-K bare-bead thermocouples located in the mannequin's mouth and on the outer surface of the SCBA cylinder. The experimental results indicated that increasing the thermal exposure severity and duration increased the breathing air temperatures supplied by the SCBA. Temperatures of breathing air from the SCBA cylinder in excess of 60°C were observed over the course of the thermal exposure conditions used in most of the experiments. A mathematical model for transient heat transfer was developed to complement the thermal exposure experimental study. The model took into consideration forced convective heat transfer, quasi-steady heat conduction through the composite layers of the SCBA cylinder wall, the breathing pattern and action of the breathing simulator, and predicted air temperatures from the thermally exposed SCBA cylinder and temperatures at the outer surface of the SCBA cylinder. Model predictions agreed reasonably well with the experimental measurements. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling Environmental Influences in the Psyllaephagus bliteus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae)-Glycaspis brimblecombei (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) Parasitoid-Host System.

PubMed

Margiotta, M; Bella, S; Buffa, F; Caleca, V; Floris, I; Giorno, V; Lo Verde, G; Rapisarda, C; Sasso, R; Suma, P; Tortorici, F; Laudonia, S

2017-04-01

Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) is an invasive psyllid introduced into the Mediterranean area, where it affects several species of Eucalyptus. Psyllaephagus bliteus Riek (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) is a specialized parasitoid of this psyllid that was accidentally introduced into Italy in 2011. We developed a model of this host-parasitoid system that accounts for the influence of environmental conditions on the G. brimblecombei population dynamics and P. bliteus parasitism rates in the natural ecosystem. The Lotka-Volterra-based model predicts non-constant host growth and parasitoid mortality rates in association with variation in environmental conditions. The model was tested by analyzing sampling data collected in Naples in 2011 (before the parasitoid was present) and defining several environmental patterns, termed Temperature-Rain or T-R patterns, which correspond to the host growth rate. A mean value of the host growth rate was assigned to each T-R pattern, as well as a variation of the parasitoid mortality rate based on temperature thresholds. The proposed model was applied in simulation tests related to T-R patterns carried out with a data series sampled between June 2014 and July 2015 in five Italian sites located in Campania, Lazio, Sicily, and Sardinia regions. The simulation results showed that the proposed model provides an accurate approximation of population trends, although oscillation details may not be apparent. Results predict a 64% reduction in G. brimblecombei population density owing to P. bliteus parasitoid activity. Our results are discussed with respect to features of the host-parasitoid interaction that could be exploited in future biological control programs. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The effect of the shape and size of gold seeds irradiated with ultrasound on the bio-heat transfer in tissue.

PubMed

Gkigkitzis, Ioannis; Austerlitz, Carlos; Haranas, Ioannis; Campos, Diana

2015-01-01

The aim of this report is to propose a new methodology to treat prostate cancer with macro-rod-shaped gold seeds irradiated with ultrasound and develop a new computational method for temperature and thermal dose control of hyperthermia therapy induced by the proposed procedure. A computer code representation, based on the bio-heat diffusion equation, was developed to calculate the heat deposition and temperature elevation patterns in a gold rod and in the tissue surrounding it as a result of different therapy durations and ultrasound power simulations. The numerical results computed provide quantitative information on the interaction between high-energy ultrasound, gold seeds and biological tissues and can replicate the pattern observed in experimental studies. The effect of differences in shapes and sizes of gold rod targets irradiated with ultrasound is calculated and the heat enhancement and the bio-heat transfer in tissue are analyzed.

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Development of Self-Powered Wireless-Ready High Temperature Electrochemical Sensors for In-Situ Corrosion Monitoring for Boiler Tubes in Next Generation Coal-based Power Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xingbo

The key innovation of this project is the synergy of the high temperature sensor technology based on the science of electrochemical measurement and state-of-the-art wireless communication technology. A novel self-powered wireless high temperature electrochemical sensor system has been developed for coal-fired boilers used for power generation. An initial prototype of the in-situ sensor demonstrated the capability of the wireless communication system in the laboratory and in a pilot plant (Industrial USC Boiler Setting) environment to acquire electrochemical potential and current signals during the corrosion process. Uniform and localized under-coal ash deposit corrosion behavior of Inconel 740 superalloy has been studiedmore » at different simulated coal ash hot corrosion environments using the developed sensor. Two typical potential noise patterns were found to correlate with the oxidation and sulfidation stages in the hot coal ash corrosion process. Two characteristic current noise patterns indicate the extent of the corrosion. There was a good correlation between the responses of electrochemical test data and the results from corroded surface analysis. Wireless electrochemical potential and current noise signals from a simulated coal ash hot corrosion process were concurrently transmitted and recorded. The results from the performance evaluation of the sensor confirm a high accuracy in the thermodynamic and kinetic response represented by the electrochemical noise and impedance test data.« less

Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun

2017-12-01

This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

A finite volume model simulation for the Broughton Archipelago, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman, M. G. G.; Czajko, P.; Stucchi, D. J.; Guo, M.

A finite volume circulation model is applied to the Broughton Archipelago region of British Columbia, Canada and used to simulate the three-dimensional velocity, temperature, and salinity fields that are required by a companion model for sea lice behaviour, development, and transport. The absence of a high resolution atmospheric model necessitated the installation of nine weather stations throughout the region and the development of a simple data assimilation technique that accounts for topographic steering in interpolating/extrapolating the measured winds to the entire model domain. The circulation model is run for the period of March 13-April 3, 2008 and correlation coefficients between observed and model currents, comparisons between model and observed tidal harmonics, and root mean square differences between observed and model temperatures and salinities all showed generally good agreement. The importance of wind forcing in the near-surface circulation, differences between this simulation and one computed with another model, the effects of bathymetric smoothing on channel velocities, further improvements necessary for this model to accurately simulate conditions in May and June, and the implication of near-surface current patterns at a critical location in the 'migration corridor' of wild juvenile salmon, are also discussed.

Properties of Decaying Plasma Turbulence at Subproton Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olshevsky, Vyacheslav; Servidio, Sergio; Pucci, Francesco; Primavera, Leonardo; Lapenta, Giovanni

2018-06-01

We study the properties of plasma turbulence at subproton scales using kinetic electromagnetic three-dimensional simulations with nonidentical initial conditions. Particle-in-cell modeling of the Taylor–Green vortex has been performed, starting from three different magnetic field configurations. All simulations expose very similar energy evolution in which the large-scale ion flows and magnetic structures deteriorate and transfer their energy into particle heating. Heating is more intense for electrons, decreasing the initial temperature ratio and leading to temperature equipartition between the two species. A full turbulent cascade, with a well-defined power-law shape at subproton scales, is established within a characteristic turnover time. Spectral indices for magnetic field fluctuations in two simulations are close to α B ≈ 2.9, and are steeper in the remaining case with α B ≈ 3.05. Energy is dissipated by a complex mixture of plasma instabilities and magnetic reconnection and is milder in the latter simulation. The number of magnetic nulls, and the dissipation pattern observed in this case, differ from two others. Spectral indices for the kinetic energy deviate from magnetic spectra by ≈1 in the first simulation, and by ≈0.75 in two other runs. The difference between magnetic and electric slopes confirm the previously observed value of α B ‑ α E ≈ 2.

A scale model wind tunnel study of dispersion in the Cleveland area. Laboratory simulation of lake breeze effects on diffusion from ground level emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoydysh, W. G.

1974-01-01

A wind tunnel simulation of the diffusion patterns in a sea breeze was attempted. The results indicate that the low level onshore flow was well simulated for neutral, stable, unstable, and elevated inversion conditions. Velocity, turbulence, shear stress, and temperature data were taken, and the spread of emissions from ground level sources was investigated. Comparison is made with theoretical predictions by E. Inoue and with the open, homogeneous plane field results of Pasquill. Agreement with the predictions by Inoue is good, and the comparison with Pasquill's results shows that the wind tunnel flows are shifted two categories towards more stable. The discrepancy may be explained as a matter of averaging time.

Use of simulated satellite radiances from a mesoscale numerical model to understand kinematic and dynamic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, Michael; Robertson, Franklin; Jedlovec, Gary; Perkey, Donald

1987-01-01

Techniques by which mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output and radiative transfer codes are combined to simulate the radiance fields that a given passive temperature/moisture satellite sensor would see if viewing the evolving model atmosphere are introduced. The goals are to diagnose the dynamical atmospheric processes responsible for recurring patterns in observed satellite radiance fields, and to develop techniques to anticipate the ability of satellite sensor systems to depict atmospheric structures and provide information useful for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The concept of linking radiative transfer and dynamical NWP codes is demonstrated with time sequences of simulated radiance imagery in the 24 TIROS vertical sounder channels derived from model integrations for March 6, 1982.

Influence of Climate Variability on Brown Planthopper Population Dynamics and Development Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romadhon, S.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Hidayati, R.

2017-03-01

Brown planthopper or Nilaparvata lugens (BPH) is one of the rice major pest in Indonesia. BPH can cause extensive damage and almost always appear in each planting season, frequent explosions attack (outbreaks) resulting in very high economic losses. Outbreaks of BPH were often occurred in paddy fields in Indramayu regency and several endemic regency in Java island, where rice is cultivated twice to three times a year both in the rainy and dry cropping seasons. The output of simulation shows the BPH population starts increasing from December to February (rainy season) and from June to August (dry season). The result relatively had same pattern with light trap observation data, but overestimate to predict BPH population. Therefore, the output of simulation had adequately close pattern if it is compares to BPH attacked area observation data. The development time taken by different stages of BPH varied at different temperatures. BPH development time at eggs and adults stage from the simulation output is suitable with BPH real lifestage, but at nymphs stage the result is different with the concept of development time.

Thermocapillary Technique for Shaping and Fabricating Optical Ribbon Waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Kevin; Troian, Sandra

The demand for ever increasing bandwidth and higher speed communication has ushered the next generation optoelectronic integrated circuits which directly incorporate polymer optical waveguide devices. Polymer melts are very versatile materials which have been successfully cast into planar single- and multimode waveguides using techniques such as embossing, photolithography and direct laser writing. In this talk, we describe a novel thermocapillary patterning method for fabricating waveguides in which the free surface of an ultrathin molten polymer film is exposed to a spatially inhomogeneous temperature field via thermal conduction from a nearby cooled mask pattern held in close proximity. The ensuring surface temperature distribution is purposely designed to pool liquid selectively into ribbon shapes suitable for optical waveguiding, but with rounded and not rectangular cross sectional areas due to capillary forces. The solidified waveguide patterns which result from this non-contact one step procedure exhibit ultrasmooth interfaces suitable for demanding optoelectronic applications. To complement these studies, we have also conducted finite element simulations for quantifying the influence of non-rectangular cross-sectional shapes on mode propagation and losses. Kf gratefully acknowledges support from a NASA Space Technology Research Fellowship.

Exploring the Influence of Topography on Belowground C Processes Using a Coupled Hydrologic-Biogeochemical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Davis, K. J.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Kaye, J. P.; Duffy, C.; Yu, X.; He, Y.

2014-12-01

Belowground carbon processes are affected by soil moisture and soil temperature, but current biogeochemical models are 1-D and cannot resolve topographically driven hill-slope soil moisture patterns, and cannot simulate the nonlinear effects of soil moisture on carbon processes. Coupling spatially-distributed physically-based hydrologic models with biogeochemical models may yield significant improvements in the representation of topographic influence on belowground C processes. We will couple the Flux-PIHM model to the Biome-BGC (BBGC) model. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically-based land surface hydrologic model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model. Because PIHM is capable of simulating lateral water flow and deep groundwater, Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as the land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BBGC model will be tested at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills critical zone observatory (SSHCZO). The abundant observations, including eddy covariance fluxes, soil moisture, groundwater level, sap flux, stream discharge, litterfall, leaf area index, above ground carbon stock, and soil carbon efflux, make SSHCZO an ideal test bed for the coupled model. In the coupled model, each Flux-PIHM model grid will couple a BBGC cell. Flux-PIHM will provide BBGC with soil moisture and soil temperature information, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with leaf area index. Preliminary results show that when Biome- BGC is driven by PIHM simulated soil moisture pattern, the simulated soil carbon is clearly impacted by topography.

Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, F.; Lall, U.; Monti, A.

2013-12-01

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is developed using a 65-years record (1948-2012) of daily rainfall amount at nineteen stations in South Florida and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds on the specific latitude of 27N (ZW27N) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM fitted is then used for predicting future rainfall patterns under global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly includes a consideration of seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can also be modeled. The results of the simulations obtained by using the downscaling model NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, seems to indicate that, as a consequence of increase of CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida should be subjected to more frequent dry conditions for the most part of the year, due mainly to a reduction of number of wet days and, at the same time, the territory should be also affected by extreme rainfall events that are more intense than the present ones. What appears from results is an increases of rainfall variability. This scenario seems coherent with the trends of rainfall patterns observed in the XX century. An investigation on the causes of such hydrologic changes, and specifically on the role of North Atlantic Subtropical High is pursued.

Thermal surface characteristics of coal fires 1 results of in-situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianzhong; Kuenzer, Claudia

2007-12-01

Natural underground coal fires are fires in coal seams occurring subsurface. The fires are ignited through a process named spontaneous combustion, which occurs based on a natural reaction but is usually triggered through human interaction. Coal mining activities expose coal to the air. This leads to the exothermal oxidation of the carbon in the coal with the air's oxygen to CO 2 and - under certain circumstances - to spontaneous combustion. Coal fires occur in many countries world wide - however, currently the Chinese coal mining industry faces the biggest problems with coal fires. Coal fires destroy the valuable resource coal and furthermore lead to many environmental degradation phenomena such as the deterioration of surrounding vegetation, land subsidence and the emission of toxic gasses (CO, N 2O). They additionally contribute to the emission of green house relevant gasses such as CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere. In this paper we present thermal characteristics of coal fires as measured in-situ during a field campaign to the Wuda coal fire area in south-central Inner Mongolia, China. Thermal characteristics include temperature anomaly measurements at the surface, spatial surface temperature profiles of fire areas and unaffected background areas, diurnal temperature profiles, and temperature measurements inside of coal fire induced cracks in the overlying bedrock. For all the measurements the effects of uneven solar heating through influences of slope and aspect are considered. Our findings show that coal fires result in strong or subtle thermal surface anomalies. Especially the latter can easily be influenced by heating of the surrounding background material through solar influences. Temperature variation of background rocks with different albedo, slope, aspect or vegetation cover can substantially influence the detectability of thermal anomalies. In the worst case coal fire related thermal anomalies can be completely masked by solar patterns during the daytime. Thus, night-time analysis is the most suitable for thermal anomaly mapping of underground coal fires, although this is not always feasible. The heat of underground coal fires only progresses very slowly through conduction in the rock material. Anomalies of coal fires completely covered by solid unfractured bedrock are very weak and were only measured during the night. The thermal pattern of underground coal fires manifested on the surface during the daytime is thus the pattern of cracks and vents, which occur due to the volume loss underground and which support radiation and convective energy transport of hot gasses. Inside coal fire temperatures can hardly be measured and can only be recorded if the glowing coal is exposed through a wider crack in the overlaying bedrock. Direct coal fire temperatures measured ranged between 233 °C and 854 °C. The results presented can substantially support the planning of thermal mapping campaigns, analyses of coal fire thermal anomalies in remotely sensed data, and can provide initial and boundary conditions for coal fire related numerical modeling. In a second paper named "Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: results of measurements on simulated coal fires" [ Zhang J., Kuenzer C., Tetzlaff A., Oettl D., Zhukov B., Wagner W., 2007. Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: Result of measurements on simulated coal fires. Accepted for publication at Journal of Applied Geophysics. doi:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2007.08.003] we report about thermal characteristics of simulated coal fires simulated under simplified conditions. The simulated set up allowed us to measure even more parameters under undisturbed conditions — especially inside fire temperatures. Furthermore we could demonstrate the differences between open surface coal fires and covered underground coal fires. Thermal signals of coal fires in near range thermal remotely sensed imagery from an observing tower and from an airplane are presented and discussed.

Scalable patterning using laser-induced shock waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhom, Saidjafarzoda; Kholikov, Khomidkhodza; Li, Peizhen; Ottman, Claire; Sanford, Dylan; Thomas, Zachary; San, Omer; Karaca, Haluk E.; Er, Ali O.

2018-04-01

An advanced direct imprinting method with low cost, quick, and minimal environmental impact to create a thermally controllable surface pattern using the laser pulses is reported. Patterned microindents were generated on Ni50Ti50 shape memory alloys and aluminum using an Nd: YAG laser operating at 1064 nm combined with a suitable transparent overlay, a sacrificial layer of graphite, and copper grid. Laser pulses at different energy densities, which generate pressure pulses up to a few GPa on the surface, were focused through the confinement medium, ablating the copper grid to create plasma and transferring the grid pattern onto the surface. Scanning electron microscope and optical microscope images show that various patterns were obtained on the surface with high fidelity. One-dimensional profile analysis indicates that the depth of the patterned sample initially increases with the laser energy and later levels off. Our simulations of laser irradiation process also confirm that high temperature and high pressure could be generated when the laser energy density of 2 J/cm2 is used.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Direct numerical simulation of turbulence and heat transfer in a hexagonal shaped duct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marin, Oana; Obabko, Aleks; Schlatter, Philipp

2014-11-01

Flows in hexagonal shapes frequently occur in nuclear reactor applications, and are also present in honeycomb-shaped settling chambers for e.g. wind tunnels. Whereas wall-bounded turbulence has been studied comprehensively in two-dimensional channels, and to a lesser degree also in square and rectangular ducts and triangles, only very limited data for hexagonal ducts is available, including resistance correlations and mean profiles. Here, we use resolved spectral-element simulations to compute velocity and temperature in fully-developed (periodic) hexagonal duct flow. The Reynolds number, based on the fixed flow rate and the hydraulic diameter, ranges between 2000 and 20000. The temperature assumes constant wall flux or constant wall temperature. First DNS results are focused on the mean characteristics such a head loss, Nusselt number, and critical Reynolds number for sustained turbulence. Profiles, both for mean and fluctuating quantities, are extracted and discussed in the context of square ducts and pipes. Comparisons to existing experiments, RANS and empirical correlations are supplied as well. The results show a complicated and fine-scale pattern of the in-plane secondary flow, which clearly affects the momentum and temperature distribution throughout the cross section.

Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

2018-04-01

The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

The Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be Tailored Using Multiple Injection Locations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Tilmes, Simone

The climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols has the potential to be designed to achieve some chosen objectives. By injecting different amounts of SO2 at multiple different latitudes, the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be partially controlled. We use simulations from the fully-coupled whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model CESM1(WACCM), to demonstrate that three spatial degrees of freedom of AOD can be achieved by appropriately combining injection at different locations: an approximately spatially-uniform AOD distribution, the relative difference in AOD between Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the relative AOD in high versus low latitudes. For forcing levels that yieldmore » 1–2°C cooling, the AOD and surface temperature response are sufficiently linear in this model so that many climate effects can be predicted from single-latitude injection simulations. Optimized injection at multiple locations is predicted to improve compensation of CO2-forced climate change, relative to a case using only equatorial aerosol injection. The additional degrees of freedom can be used, for example, to balance interhemispheric temperature differences and the equator to pole temperature difference in addition to the global mean temperature; this is projected in this model to reduce the mean-square error in temperature compensation by 30%.« less

Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate, vegetation, and stream flow patterns in adjacent natural areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Chase, T.N.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Baron, Jill S.

1998-01-01

We present evidence that land use practices in the plains of Colorado influence regional climate and vegetation in adjacent natural areas in the Rocky Mountains in predictable ways. Mesoscale climate model simulations using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) projected that modifications to natural vegetation in the plains, primarily due to agriculture and urbanization, could produce lower summer temperatures in the mountains. We corroborate the RAMS simulations with three independent sets of data: (i) climate records from 16 weather stations, which showed significant trends of decreasing July temperatures in recent decades; (ii) the distribution of seedlings of five dominant conifer species in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, which suggested that cooler, wetter conditions occurred over roughly the same time period; and (iii) increased stream flow, normalized for changes in precipitation, during the summer months in four river basins, which also indicates cooler summer temperatures and lower transpiration at landscape scales. Combined, the mesoscale atmospheric/land-surface model, short-term in regional temperatures, forest distribution changes, and hydrology data indicate that the effects of land use practices on regional climate may overshadow larger-scale temperature changes commonly associated with observed increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Bales, Jerad D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7

High temperature antenna development for space shuttle, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlman, E. A.

1973-01-01

Design concepts for high temperature flush mounted Space Shuttle Orbiter antenna systems are discussed. The design concepts include antenna systems for VHF, L-band, S-band, C-band and Ku-band frequencies. The S-band antenna system design was completed and test hardware fabricated. It was then subjected to electrical and thermal testing to establish design requirements and determine reuse capabilities. The thermal tests consisted of applying ten high temperature cycles simulating the Orbiter entry heating environment in an arc tunnel plasma facility and observing the temperature distributions. Radiation pattern and impedance measurements before and after high temperature exposure were used to evaluated the antenna systems performance. Alternate window design concepts are considered. Layout drawings, supported by thermal and strength analyses, are given for each of the antenna system designs. The results of the electrical and thermal testing of the S-band antenna system are given.

Numerical simulation of dendrite growth in nickel-based superalloy and validated by in-situ observation using high temperature confocal laser scanning microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xuewei; Xu, Qingyan; Liu, Baicheng

2017-12-01

Dendritic structures are the predominant microstructural constituents of nickel-based superalloys, an understanding of the dendrite growth is required in order to obtain the desirable microstructure and improve the performance of castings. For this reason, numerical simulation method and an in-situ observation technology by employing high temperature confocal laser scanning microscopy (HT-CLSM) were used to investigate dendrite growth during solidification process. A combined cellular automaton-finite difference (CA-FD) model allowing for the prediction of dendrite growth of binary alloys was developed. The algorithm of cells capture was modified, and a deterministic cellular automaton (DCA) model was proposed to describe neighborhood tracking. The dendrite and detail morphology, especially hundreds of dendrites distribution at a large scale and three-dimensional (3-D) polycrystalline growth, were successfully simulated based on this model. The dendritic morphologies of samples before and after HT-CLSM were both observed by optical microscope (OM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The experimental observations presented a reasonable agreement with the simulation results. It was also found that primary or secondary dendrite arm spacing, and segregation pattern were significantly influenced by dendrite growth. Furthermore, the directional solidification (DS) dendritic evolution behavior and detail morphology were also simulated based on the proposed model, and the simulation results also agree well with experimental results.

Effects of vertical distribution of water vapor and temperature on total column water vapor retrieval error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Jielun

1993-01-01

Results are presented of a test of the physically based total column water vapor retrieval algorithm of Wentz (1992) for sensitivity to realistic vertical distributions of temperature and water vapor. The ECMWF monthly averaged temperature and humidity fields are used to simulate the spatial pattern of systematic retrieval error of total column water vapor due to this sensitivity. The estimated systematic error is within 0.1 g/sq cm over about 70 percent of the global ocean area; systematic errors greater than 0.3 g/sq cm are expected to exist only over a few well-defined regions, about 3 percent of the global oceans, assuming that the global mean value is unbiased.

Simulation studies promote technological development of radiofrequency phased array hyperthermia.

PubMed

Wust, P; Seebass, M; Nadobny, J; Deuflhard, P; Mönich, G; Felix, R

1996-01-01

A treatment planning program package for radiofrequency hyperthermia has been developed. It consists of software modules for processing three-dimensional computerized tomography (CT) data sets, manual segmentation, generation of tetrahedral grids, numerical calculation and optimisation of three-dimensional E field distributions using a volume surface integral equation algorithm as well as temperature distributions using an adaptive multilevel finite-elements code, and graphical tools for simultaneous representation of CT data and simulation results. Heat treatments are limited by hot spots in healthy tissues caused by E field maxima at electrical interfaces (bone/muscle). In order to reduce or avoid hot spots suitable objective functions are derived from power deposition patterns and temperature distributions, and are utilised to optimise antenna parameters (phases, amplitudes). The simulation and optimisation tools have been applied to estimate the improvements that could be reached by upgrades of the clinically used SIGMA-60 applicator (consisting of a single ring of four antenna pairs). The investigated upgrades are increased number of antennas and channels (triple-ring of 3 x 8 antennas and variation of antenna inclination. Significant improvement of index temperatures (1-2 degrees C) is achieved by upgrading the single ring to a triple ring with free phase selection for every antenna or antenna pair. Antenna amplitudes and inclinations proved as less important parameters.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Macrosegregation Resulting from Directional Solidification Through an Abrupt Change in Cross-Sections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauer, M.; Poirier, D. R.; Ghods, M.; Tewari, S. N.; Grugel, R. N.

2017-01-01

Simulations of the directional solidification of two hypoeutectic alloys (Al-7Si alloy and Al-19Cu) and resulting macrosegregation patterns are presented. The casting geometries include abrupt changes in cross-section from a larger width of 9.5 mm to a narrower 3.2 mm width then through an expansion back to a width of 9.5 mm. The alloys were chosen as model alloys because they have similar solidification shrinkages, but the effect of Cu on changing the density of the liquid alloy is about an order of magnitude greater than that of Si. The simulations compare well with experimental castings that were directionally solidified in a graphite mold in a Bridgman furnace. In addition to the simulations of the directional solidification in graphite molds, some simulations were effected for solidification in an alumina mold. This study showed that the mold must be included in numerical simulations of directional solidification because of its effect on the temperature field and solidification. For the model alloys used for the study, the simulations clearly show the interaction of the convection field with the solidifying alloys to produce a macrosegregation pattern known as "steepling" in sections with a uniform width. Details of the complex convection- and segregation-patterns at both the contraction and expansion of the cross-sectional area are revealed by the computer simulations. The convection and solidification through the expansions suggest a possible mechanism for the formation of stray grains. The computer simulations and the experimental castings have been part of on-going ground-based research with the goal of providing necessary background for eventual experiments aboard the ISS. For casting practitioners, the results of the simulations demonstrate that computer simulations should be applied to reveal interactions between alloy solidification properties, solidification conditions, and mold geometries on macrosegregation. The simulations also presents the possibility of engineering the mold-material to avoid, or mitigate, the effects of thermosolutal convection and macrosegregation by selecting a mold material with suitable thermal properties, especially its thermal conductivity.

Debye–Waller coefficient of heavily deformed nanocrystalline iron1

PubMed Central

Abdellatief, M.

2017-01-01

Synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns from an extensively ball-milled iron alloy powder were collected at 100, 200 and 300 K. The results were analysed together with those using extended X-ray absorption fine structure, measured on the same sample at liquid nitrogen temperature (77 K) and at room temperature (300 K), to assess the contribution of static disorder to the Debye–Waller coefficient (B iso). Both techniques give an increase of ∼20% with respect to bulk reference iron, a noticeably smaller difference than reported by most of the literature for similar systems. Besides good quality XRD patterns, proper consideration of the temperature diffuse scattering seems to be the key to accurate values of the Debye–Waller coefficient. Molecular dynamics simulations of nanocrystalline iron aggregates, mapped on the evidence provided by XRD in terms of domain size distribution, shed light on the origin of the observed B iso increase. The main contribution to the static disorder is given by the grain boundary, while line and point defects have a much smaller effect. PMID:28381974

Debye–Waller coefficient of heavily deformed nanocrystalline iron

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scardi, P.; Rebuffi, L.; Abdellatief, M.

2017-02-17

Synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns from an extensively ball-milled iron alloy powder were collected at 100, 200 and 300 K. The results were analysed together with those using extended X-ray absorption fine structure, measured on the same sample at liquid nitrogen temperature (77 K) and at room temperature (300 K), to assess the contribution of static disorder to the Debye–Waller coefficient (B iso). Both techniques give an increase of ~20% with respect to bulk reference iron, a noticeably smaller difference than reported by most of the literature for similar systems. Besides good quality XRD patterns, proper consideration of themore » temperature diffuse scattering seems to be the key to accurate values of the Debye–Waller coefficient. Molecular dynamics simulations of nanocrystalline iron aggregates, mapped on the evidence provided by XRD in terms of domain size distribution, shed light on the origin of the observedB isoincrease. The main contribution to the static disorder is given by the grain boundary, while line and point defects have a much smaller effect.« less

Numerical study of heat transfer characteristics in BOG heat exchanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yan; Pfotenhauer, John M.; Miller, Franklin; Ni, Zhonghua; Zhi, Xiaoqin

2016-12-01

In this study, a numerical study of turbulent flow and the heat transfer process in a boil-off liquefied natural gas (BOG) heat exchanger was performed. Finite volume computational fluid dynamics and the k - ω based shear stress transport model were applied to simulate thermal flow of BOG and ethylene glycol in a full-sized 3D tubular heat exchanger. The simulation model has been validated and compared with the engineering specification data from its supplier. In order to investigate thermal characteristics of the heat exchanger, velocity, temperature, heat flux and thermal response were studied under different mass flowrates in the shell-side. The shell-side flow pattern is mostly determined by viscous forces, which lead to a small velocity and low temperature buffer area in the bottom-right corner of the heat exchanger. Changing the shell-side mass flowrate could result in different distributions of the shell-side flow. However, the distribution in the BOG will remain in a relatively stable pattern. Heat flux increases along with the shell-side mass flowrate, but the increase is not linear. The ratio of increased heat flux to the mass flow interval is superior at lower mass flow conditions, and the threshold mass flow for stable working conditions is defined as greater than 0.41 kg/s.

Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

2017-12-01

The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

Sensitivity of simulated South America climate to the land surface schemes in RegCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llopart, Marta; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Reboita, Michelle; Cuadra, Santiago

2017-12-01

This work evaluates the impact of two land surface parameterizations on the simulated climate and its variability over South America (SA). Two numerical experiments using RegCM4 coupled with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (RegBATS) and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (RegCLM) land surface schemes are compared. For the period 1979-2008, RegCM4 simulations used 50 km horizontal grid spacing and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions. For the period studied, both simulations represent the main observed spatial patterns of rainfall, air temperature and low level circulation over SA. However, with regard to the precipitation intensity, RegCLM values are closer to the observations than RegBATS (it is wetter in general) over most of SA. RegCLM also produces smaller biases for air temperature. Over the Amazon basin, the amplitudes of the annual cycles of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux are higher in RegBATS than in RegCLM. This indicates that RegBATS provides large amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere and has more available energy to increase the boundary layer thickness and cause it to reach the level of free convection (higher sensible heat flux values) resulting in higher precipitation rates and a large wet bias. RegCLM is closer to the observations than RegBATS, presenting smaller wet and warm biases over the Amazon basin. On an interannual scale, the magnitudes of the anomalies of the precipitation and air temperature simulated by RegCLM are closer to the observations. In general, RegBATS simulates higher magnitude for the interannual variability signal.

The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change.

PubMed

Woods, H Arthur; Dillon, Michael E; Pincebourde, Sylvain

2015-12-01

We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less

Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experiencemore » temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.« less

Reassessment of ice-age cooling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Mix, A.C.

1999-01-01

The CLIMAP project's reconstruction of past sea surface temperature inferred limited ice-age cooling in the tropical oceans. This conclusion has been controversial, however, because of the greater cooling indicated by other terrestrial and ocean proxy data. A new faunal sea surface temperature reconstruction, calibrated using the variation of foraminiferal species through time, better represents ice-age faunal assemblages and so reveals greater cooling than CLIMAP in the equatorial current systems of the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic oceans. Here we explore the climatic implications of this revised sea surface temperature field for the Last Glacial Maximum using an atmospheric general circulation model. Relative to model results obtained using CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, the cooler equatorial oceans modify seasonal air temperatures by 1-2??C or more across parts of South America, Africa and southeast Asia and cause attendant changes in regional moisture patterns. In our simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Amazon lowlands, for example, are cooler and drier, whereas the Andean highlands are cooler and wetter than the control simulation. Our results may help to resolve some of the apparent disagreements between oceanic and continental proxy climate data. Moreover, they suggest a wind-related mechanism for enhancing the export of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific oceans, which may link variations in deep-water production and high-latitude climate changes to equatorial sea surface temperatures.

Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

2017-07-01

This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

The Feasibility of Conformal Thermal Therapy with Transurethral Ultrasound Heating Applicators and MR Temperature Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, Vanessa; Tang, Kee; Wachsmuth, Jeff; Chopra, Rajiv; Bronskill, Michael

2006-05-01

Transurethral thermal therapy offers a minimally invasive alternative for the treatment of prostate diseases including benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) and prostate cancer. Accurate heating of a targeted region of the gland can be achieved through the use of a rotating directional heating source incorporating planar ultrasound transducers, and the implementation of active temperature feedback along the beam direction during heating provided by magnetic resonance (MR) thermometry. The performance of this control method with practical spatial, temporal, and temperature resolution (such as angular alignment, spatial resolution, update rate for temperature feedback (imaging time), and the presence of noise) for thermal feedback using a clinical 1.5 T MR scanner was investigated in simulations. As expected, the control algorithm was most sensitive to the presence of noise, with noticeable degradation in its performance above ±2°C of temperature uncertainty. With respect to temporal resolution, acceptable performance was achieved at update rates of 5s or faster. The control algorithm was relatively insensitive to reduced spatial resolution due to the broad nature of the heating pattern produced by the heating applicator, this provides an opportunity to improve signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The overall simulation results confirm that existing clinical 1.5T MR imagers are capable of providing adequate temperature feedback for transurethral thermal therapy without special pulse sequences or enhanced imaging hardware.

Modeling the influence of a reduced equator-to-pole sea surface temperature gradient on the distribution of water isotopes in the Early/Middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speelman, Eveline N.; Sewall, Jacob O.; Noone, David; Huber, Matthew; von der Heydt, Anna; Damsté, Jaap Sinninghe; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2010-09-01

Proxy-based climate reconstructions suggest the existence of a strongly reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient during the Azolla interval in the Early/Middle Eocene, compared to modern. Changes in the hydrological cycle, as a consequence of a reduced temperature gradient, are expected to be reflected in the isotopic composition of precipitation (δD, δ 18O). The interpretation of water isotopic records to quantitatively reconstruct past precipitation patterns is, however, hampered by a lack of detailed information on changes in their spatial and temporal distribution. Using the isotope-enabled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model v.3 (isoCAM3), relationships between water isotopes and past climates can be simulated. Here we examine the influence of an imposed reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient on the spatial distribution of precipitation and its isotopic composition in an Early/Middle Eocene setting. As a result of the applied forcings, the Eocene simulation predicts the occurrence of less depleted high latitude precipitation, with δD values ranging only between 0 and -140‰ (compared to Present-day 0 to -300‰). Comparison with Early/Middle Eocene-age isotopic proxy data shows that the simulation accurately captures the main features of the spatial distribution of the isotopic composition of Early/Middle Eocene precipitation over land in conjunction with the aspects of the modeled Early/Middle Eocene climate. Hence, the included stable isotope module quantitatively supports the existence of a reduced meridional temperature gradient during this interval.

An investigation of bread-baking process in a pilot-scale electrical heating oven using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Anishaparvin, A; Chhanwal, N; Indrani, D; Raghavarao, K S M S; Anandharamakrishnan, C

2010-01-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed for bread-baking process in a pilot-scale baking oven to find out the effect of hot air distribution and placement of bread on temperature and starch gelatinization index of bread. In this study, product (bread) simulation was carried out with different placements of bread. Simulation results were validated with experimental measurements of bread temperature. This study showed that nonuniform air flow pattern inside the oven cavity leads to uneven temperature distribution. The study with respect to placement of bread showed that baking of bread in upper trays required shorter baking time and gelatinization index compared to those in the bottom tray. The upper tray bread center reached 100 °C at 1200 s, whereas starch gelatinization completed within 900 s, which was the minimum baking index. Moreover, the heat penetration and starch gelatinization were higher along the sides of the bread as compared to the top and bottom portions of the bread. © 2010 Institute of Food Technologists®

A finite element method based microwave heat transfer modeling of frozen multi-component foods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitchai, Krishnamoorthy

Microwave heating is fast and convenient, but is highly non-uniform. Non-uniform heating in microwave cooking affects not only food quality but also food safety. Most food industries develop microwavable food products based on "cook-and-look" approach. This approach is time-consuming, labor intensive and expensive and may not result in optimal food product design that assures food safety and quality. Design of microwavable food can be realized through a simulation model which describes the physical mechanisms of microwave heating in mathematical expressions. The objective of this study was to develop a microwave heat transfer model to predict spatial and temporal profiles of various heterogeneous foods such as multi-component meal (chicken nuggets and mashed potato), multi-component and multi-layered meal (lasagna), and multi-layered food with active packages (pizza) during microwave heating. A microwave heat transfer model was developed by solving electromagnetic and heat transfer equations using finite element method in commercially available COMSOL Multiphysics v4.4 software. The microwave heat transfer model included detailed geometry of the cavity, phase change, and rotation of the food on the turntable. The predicted spatial surface temperature patterns and temporal profiles were validated against the experimental temperature profiles obtained using a thermal imaging camera and fiber-optic sensors. The predicted spatial surface temperature profile of different multi-component foods was in good agreement with the corresponding experimental profiles in terms of hot and cold spot patterns. The root mean square error values of temporal profiles ranged from 5.8 °C to 26.2 °C in chicken nuggets as compared 4.3 °C to 4.7 °C in mashed potatoes. In frozen lasagna, root mean square error values at six locations ranged from 6.6 °C to 20.0 °C for 6 min of heating. A microwave heat transfer model was developed to include susceptor assisted microwave heating of a frozen pizza. The root mean square error values of transient temperature profiles of five locations ranged from 5.0 °C to 12.6 °C. A methodology was developed to incorporate electromagnetic frequency spectrum in the coupled electromagnetic and heat transfer model. Implementing the electromagnetic frequency spectrum in the simulation improved the accuracy of temperature field pattern and transient temperature profile as compared to mono-chromatic frequency of 2.45 GHz. The bulk moisture diffusion coefficient of cooked pasta was calculated as a function of temperature at a constant water activity using desorption isotherms.

Urban Thermodynamic Island in a Coastal City Analysed from an Optimized Surface Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigeon, Grégoire; Lemonsu, Aude; Long, Nathalie; Barrié, Joël; Masson, Valéry; Durand, Pierre

2006-08-01

Within the framework of ESCOMPTE, a French experiment performed in June and July 2001 in the south-east of France to study the photo-oxidant pollution at the regional scale, the urban boundary layer (UBL) program focused on the study of the urban atmosphere over the coastal city of Marseille. A methodology developed to optimize a network of 20 stations measuring air temperature and moisture over the city is presented. It is based on the analysis of a numerical simulation, performed with the non-hydrostatic, mesoscale Meso-NH model, run with four nested-grids down to a horizontal resolution of 250 m over the city and including a specific parametrization for the urban surface energy balance. A three-day period was modelled and evaluated against data collected during the preparatory phase for the project in summer 2000. The simulated thermodynamic surface fields were analysed using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition in order to determine the optimal network configuration designed to capture the dominant characteristics of the fields. It is the first attempt of application of this kind of methodology to the field of urban meteorology. The network, of 20 temperature and moisture sensors, was implemented during the UBL-ESCOMPTE experiment and continuously recorded data from 12 June to 14 July 2001. The measurements were analysed in order to assess the urban thermodynamic island spatio-temporal structure, also using EOF decomposition. During nighttime, the influence of urbanization on temperature is clear the field is characterized by concentric thermo-pleths around the old core of the city, which is the warmest area of the domain. The moisture field is more influenced by proximity to the sea and airflow patterns. During the day, the sea breeze often moves from west or south-west and consequently the spatial pattern for both parameters is characterized by a gradient perpendicular to the shoreline. Finally, in order to assess the methodology adopted, the spatial structures extracted from the simulation of the 2000 preparatory campaign and observations gathered in 2001 have been compared. They are highly correlated, which is a relevant validation of the methodology proposed. The relations between these spatial structures and geographical characteristics of the site have also been studied. High correlations between temperature spatial structure during nighttime and urban cover fraction or street aspect ratio are observed and simulated. For temperature during daytime or moisture during both daytime and nighttime these geographical factors are not correlated with thermodynamic fields spatial structures.

Optical and microwave detection using Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O thin films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabow, B. E.; Sova, R. M.; Boone, B. G.; Moorjani, K.; Kim, B. F.; Bohandy, J.; Adrian, F.; Green, W. J.

1990-01-01

Recent progress at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) in the development of optical and microwave detectors using high temperature superconducting thin films is described. Several objectives of this work have been accomplished, including: deposition of Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O thin films by laser abation processing (LAP); development of thin film patterning techniques, including in situ masking, wet chemical etching and laser patterning; measurements of bolometric and non-bolometric signatures in patterned Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O films using optical and microwave sources, respectively; analysis and design of an optimized bolometer through computer simulation, and investigation of its use in a Fourier transform spectrometer. The focus here is primarily on results from the measurement of the bolometric and non-bolometric response.

Optical and microwave detection using Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O thin films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabow, B. E.; Sova, R. M.; Boone, B. G.; Moorjani, K.; Kim, B. F.; Bohandy, J.; Adrian, F.; Green, W. J.

1991-01-01

Recent progress at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) in the development of optical and microwave detectors using high temperature superconducting thin films is described. Several objectives of this work have been accomplished, including: deposition of Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O thin films by laser abation processing (LAP); development of thin film patterning techniques, including in situ masking, wet chemical etching, and laser patterning; measurements of bolometric and non-bolometric signatures in patterned Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O films using optical and microwave sources, respectively; analysis and design of an optimized bolometer through computer simulation; and investigation of its use in a Fourier transform spectrometer. The focus here is primarily on results from the measurement of the bolometric and non-bolometric response.

In-volume structuring of a bilayered polymer foil using direct laser interference patterning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rößler, Florian; Günther, Katja; Lasagni, Andrés F.

2018-05-01

Periodic surface patterns can provide materials with special optical properties, which are usable in decorative or security applications. However, they can be sensitive to contact wear and thus their lifetime and functionality are limited. This study describes the use of direct laser interference patterning for structuring a multilayered polymer film at its interface creating periodic in-volume structures which are resistant to contact wear. The spatial period of the structures are varied in the range of 1.0 μm to 2.0 μm in order to produce decorative elements. The pattern formation at the interface is explained using cross sectional observations and a thermal simulation of the temperature evolution during the laser treatment at the interface. Both, the diffraction efficiency and direct transmission are characterized by light intensity measurements to describe the optical behavior of the produced periodic structures and a decorative application example is presented.

Elimination of Hot Tears in Steel Castings by Means of Solidification Pattern Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotas, Petr; Tutum, Cem Celal; Thorborg, Jesper; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2012-06-01

A methodology of how to exploit the Niyama criterion for the elimination of various defects such as centerline porosity, macrosegregation, and hot tearing in steel castings is presented. The tendency of forming centerline porosity is governed by the temperature distribution close to the end of the solidification interval, specifically by thermal gradients and cooling rates. The physics behind macrosegregation and hot tears indicate that these two defects also are dependent heavily on thermal gradients and pressure drop in the mushy zone. The objective of this work is to show that by optimizing the solidification pattern, i.e., establishing directional and progressive solidification with the help of the Niyama criterion, macrosegregation and hot tearing issues can be both minimized or eliminated entirely. An original casting layout was simulated using a transient three-dimensional (3-D) thermal fluid model incorporated in a commercial simulation software package to determine potential flaws and inadequacies. Based on the initial casting process assessment, multiobjective optimization of the solidification pattern of the considered steel part followed. That is, the multiobjective optimization problem of choosing the proper riser and chill designs has been investigated using genetic algorithms while simultaneously considering their impact on centerline porosity, the macrosegregation pattern, and primarily on hot tear formation.

Laser-assisted chemical vapor deposition setup for fast synthesis of graphene patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chentao; Zhang, Jianhuan; Lin, Kun; Huang, Yuanqing

2017-05-01

An automatic setup based on the laser-assisted chemical vapor deposition method has been developed for the rapid synthesis of graphene patterns. The key components of this setup include a laser beam control and focusing unit, a laser spot monitoring unit, and a vacuum and flow control unit. A laser beam with precision control of laser power is focused on the surface of a nickel foil substrate by the laser beam control and focusing unit for localized heating. A rapid heating and cooling process at the localized region is induced by the relative movement between the focalized laser spot and the nickel foil substrate, which causes the decomposing of gaseous hydrocarbon and the out-diffusing of excess carbon atoms to form graphene patterns on the laser scanning path. All the fabrication parameters that affect the quality and number of graphene layers, such as laser power, laser spot size, laser scanning speed, pressure of vacuum chamber, and flow rates of gases, can be precisely controlled and monitored during the preparation of graphene patterns. A simulation of temperature distribution was carried out via the finite element method, providing a scientific guidance for the regulation of temperature distribution during experiments. A multi-layer graphene ribbon with few defects was synthesized to verify its performance of the rapid growth of high-quality graphene patterns. Furthermore, this setup has potential applications in other laser-based graphene synthesis and processing.

Modeling fluid flow and heat transfer at Basin and Range faults: preliminary results for Leach hot springs, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

López, Dina L.; Smith, Leslie; Storey, Michael L.; Nielson, Dennis L.

1994-01-01

The hydrothermal systems of the Basin and Range Province are often located at or near major range bounding normal faults. The flow of fluid and energy at these faults is affected by the advective transfer of heat and fluid from an to the adjacent mountain ranges and valleys, This paper addresses the effect of the exchange of fluid and energy between the country rock, the valley fill sediments, and the fault zone, on the fluid and heat flow regimes at the fault plane. For comparative purposes, the conditions simulated are patterned on Leach Hot Springs in southern Grass Valley, Nevada. Our simulations indicated that convection can exist at the fault plane even when the fault is exchanging significant heat and fluid with the surrounding country rock and valley fill sediments. The temperature at the base of the fault decreased with increasing permeability of the country rock. Higher groundwater discharge from the fault and lower temperatures at the base of the fault are favored by high country rock permabilities and fault transmissivities. Preliminary results suggest that basal temperatures and flow rates for Leach Hot Springs can not be simulated with a fault 3 km deep and an average regional heat flow of 150 mW/m2 because the basal temperature and mass discharge rates are too low. A fault permeable to greater depths or a higher regional heat flow may be indicated for these springs.

Thermosolutal Marangoni convection short-time regimes - Proposals for drop tower experiments and real time computer simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polezhaev, V. I.; Ermakov, M. K.

1992-12-01

Results are presented of a parametrical study of flow patterns, heat transfer, and time scales of thermosolutal Marangoni convection in a cavity with temperature and solutal gradients along the free surface and adiabatic bottom for the case of zero gravity. Nusselt number, concentration difference across the cavity, and flow/temperature fields for the different regimes are presented; they show the possibility to use Drop Tower 'Bremen' for measuring the developed secondary flow and heat/mass transfer due to thermosolutal Marangoni convection as well as the possibility to analyze and plan the drop tower for such experiments using the COMGA PC-based system.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

High resolution dynamical downscaling of air temperature and relative humidity: performance assessment of WRF for Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João

2017-04-01

Air temperature and relative humidity are two of the atmospheric variables with higher impact on human and natural systems, contributing to define the stress/comfortable conditions, affecting the productivity and health of the individuals as well as diminishing the resilience to other environmental hazards. Atmospheric regional models, driven by large scale forecasts from global circulation models, are the best way to reproduce such environmental conditions in high space-time resolution. This study is focused on the performance assessment of the WRF mesoscale model to perform high resolution dynamical downscaling for Portugal with three two-way nested grids, at 60 km, 20 km and 5 km horizontal resolution. The simulations of WRF models were produced with different initial and boundary forcing conditions. The NCEP-FNL Operational Global Analysis data available on 1-degree by 1-degree grid every six hours and ERA-Interim reanalyses dataset were used to drive the models. Two alternative configurations of the WRF model, including planetary boundary, layer schemes, microphysics, land-surface models, radiation schemes, were used and tested within the 5 km spatial resolution domain. Simulations of air temperature and relative humidity were produced for January and July of 2016 and compared with the observed datasets provided by the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) for 83 weather stations. Different performance measures of bias, precision, and accuracy were used, namely normalized bias, standard deviation, mean absolute error, root mean square error, bias of root mean square error as well as correlation based measures (e.g., coefficient of determination) and goodness of fit measures (index of agreement). Main conclusions from the obtained results reveal: (i) great similarity between the spatial patterns of the simulated and observed fields; (ii) only small differences between simulations produced with ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL, in spite of some differences between the input variables; (iii) the tested parametrizations do not force significantly different simulation patterns; (iv) observed and simulated hourly air temperature are very well correlated (91%), presenting similar variance and a low bias over the country. Obtained results are also in good agreement with other dynamical downscaling studies for Portugal supporting the use of WRF as a regional forecast model. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033.

Modeling stream temperature in the Anthropocene: An earth system modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu; ...

2015-10-29

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less

Simulating Pliocene warmth and a permanent El Niño-like state: The role of cloud albedo

DOE PAGES

Burls, N. J.; Fedorov, A. V.

2014-09-13

We present that available evidence suggests that during the early Pliocene (4–5 Ma) the mean east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was significantly smaller than today, possibly reaching only 1–2°C. The meridional SST gradients were also substantially weaker, implying an expanded ocean warm pool in low latitudes. Subsequent global cooling led to the establishment of the stronger, modern temperature gradients. Given our understanding of the physical processes that maintain the present-day cold tongue in the east, warm pool in the west and hence sharp temperature contrasts, determining the key factors that maintained early Pliocene climatemore » still presents a challenge for climate theories and models. This study demonstrates how different cloud properties could provide a solution. We show that a reduction in the meridional gradient in cloud albedo can sustain reduced meridional and zonal SST gradients, an expanded warm pool and warmer thermal stratification in the ocean, and weaker Hadley and Walker circulations in the atmosphere. Having conducted a range of hypothetical modified cloud albedo experiments, we arrive at our Pliocene simulation, which shows good agreement with proxy SST data from major equatorial and coastal upwelling regions, the tropical warm pool, middle and high latitudes, and available subsurface temperature data. As suggested by the observations, the simulated Pliocene-like climate sustains a robust El Niño-Southern Oscillation despite the reduced mean east-west SST gradient. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that cloud albedo changes may be a critical element of Pliocene climate and that simulating the meridional SST gradient correctly is central to replicating the geographical patterns of Pliocene warmth.« less

Stratospheric ozone levels and their role for the dynamic response to volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien G.; Raible, Christoph C.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Arfeuille, Florian; Peter, Tom; Rozanov, Eugene; Shapiro, Alexander; Beer, Juerg; Steinhilber, Friedhelm; Brugnara, Yuri; Schmutz, Werner

2013-04-01

The role of different background ozone climatologies for the dynamic response to tropical volcanic eruptions is analyzed using an ensemble of simulation with the atmospheric-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL/MPIOM. In this sensitivity study a single tropical eruption of Tambora-size is applied to an ensemble with either pre-industrial ozone concentrations or present day concentrations respectively. The analysis focuses on the characteristic of the Northern Europe winter warming pattern following the eruption, that has been identified after several eruptions in observations and in proxy data. The sensitivity study reveals a higher probability for a large and significant winter warming pattern with pre-industrial ozone levels, when the dynamic response of the chemistry to the eruption is disabled in the model. The positive temperature anomaly is driven by a positive NAO-like pressure pattern that lead to the advection of warm Atlantic air towards Northern Europe. With present day concentrations winter warmings are also found in some ensemble members, but overall the probability is strongly reduced. It is shown, that with pre-industial day ozone concentrations the coupling between positive anomalies of the polar vortex and the zonal wind in the troposphere is more effective, which could explain the higher likelihood of positive NAO-like pressure patterns and positive temperature anomalies in Northern Europe.

A fresh look at the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, S. B.; Tierney, J. E.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Quantifying climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21ka) can help us to understand climate responses to forcing and climate states that are poorly represented in the instrumental record. Paleoclimate proxies may be used to estimate these climate conditions, but proxies are sparsely distributed and possess uncertainties from environmental and biogeochemical processes. Alternatively, climate model simulations provide a full-field view, but may predict unrealistic climate states or states not faithful to proxy records. Here, we use data assimilation - combining climate proxy records with a theoretical understanding from climate models - to produce field reconstructions of the LGM that leverage the information from both data and models. To date, data assimilation has mainly been used to produce reconstructions of climate fields through the last millennium. We expand this approach in order to produce a climate fields for the Last Glacial Maximum using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation. Ensemble samples were formed from output from multiple models including CCSM3, CESM2.1, and HadCM3. These model simulations are combined with marine sediment proxies for upper ocean temperature (TEX86, UK'37, Mg/Ca and δ18O of foraminifera), utilizing forward models based on a newly developed suite of Bayesian proxy system models. We also incorporate age model and radiocarbon reservoir uncertainty into our reconstructions using Bayesian age modeling software. The resulting fields show familiar patterns based on comparison with previous proxy-based reconstructions, but additionally reveal novel patterns of large-scale shifts in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, as the surface temperature data inform upon atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.

Quantitative analysis of dinuclear manganese(II) EPR spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golombek, Adina P.; Hendrich, Michael P.

2003-11-01

A quantitative method for the analysis of EPR spectra from dinuclear Mn(II) complexes is presented. The complex [(Me 3TACN) 2Mn(II) 2(μ-OAc) 3]BPh 4 ( 1) (Me 3TACN= N, N', N''-trimethyl-1,4,7-triazacyclononane; OAc=acetate 1-; BPh 4=tetraphenylborate 1-) was studied with EPR spectroscopy at X- and Q-band frequencies, for both perpendicular and parallel polarizations of the microwave field, and with variable temperature (2-50 K). Complex 1 is an antiferromagnetically coupled dimer which shows signals from all excited spin manifolds, S=1 to 5. The spectra were simulated with diagonalization of the full spin Hamiltonian which includes the Zeeman and zero-field splittings of the individual manganese sites within the dimer, the exchange and dipolar coupling between the two manganese sites of the dimer, and the nuclear hyperfine coupling for each manganese ion. All possible transitions for all spin manifolds were simulated, with the intensities determined from the calculated probability of each transition. In addition, the non-uniform broadening of all resonances was quantitatively predicted using a lineshape model based on D- and r-strain. As the temperature is increased from 2 K, an 11-line hyperfine pattern characteristic of dinuclear Mn(II) is first observed from the S=3 manifold. D- and r-strain are the dominate broadening effects that determine where the hyperfine pattern will be resolved. A single unique parameter set was found to simulate all spectra arising for all temperatures, microwave frequencies, and microwave modes. The simulations are quantitative, allowing for the first time the determination of species concentrations directly from EPR spectra. Thus, this work describes the first method for the quantitative characterization of EPR spectra of dinuclear manganese centers in model complexes and proteins. The exchange coupling parameter J for complex 1 was determined ( J=-1.5±0.3 cm-1; H ex=-2J S1· S2) and found to be in agreement with a previous determination from magnetization. The phenomenon of exchange striction was found to be insignificant for 1.

Impact of radiation frequency, precipitation radiative forcing, and radiation column aggregation on convection-permitting West African monsoon simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, Toshi; Zhang, Sara Q.; Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Ichoku, Charles; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-03-01

In this study, the impact of different configurations of the Goddard radiation scheme on convection-permitting simulations (CPSs) of the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated using the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). These CPSs had 3 km grid spacing to explicitly simulate the evolution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their interaction with radiative processes across the WAM domain and were able to reproduce realistic precipitation and energy budget fields when compared with satellite data, although low clouds were overestimated. Sensitivity experiments reveal that (1) lowering the radiation update frequency (i.e., longer radiation update time) increases precipitation and cloudiness over the WAM region by enhancing the monsoon circulation, (2) deactivation of precipitation radiative forcing suppresses cloudiness over the WAM region, and (3) aggregating radiation columns reduces low clouds over ocean and tropical West Africa. The changes in radiation configuration immediately modulate the radiative heating and low clouds over ocean. On the 2nd day of the simulations, patterns of latitudinal air temperature profiles were already similar to the patterns of monthly composites for all radiation sensitivity experiments. Low cloud maintenance within the WAM system is tightly connected with radiation processes; thus, proper coupling between microphysics and radiation processes must be established for each modeling framework.

Investigation on combustion characteristics and NO formation of methane with swirling and non-swirling high temperature air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xing; Jia, Li

2014-10-01

Combustion characteristics of methane jet flames in an industrial burner working in high temperature combustion regime were investigated experimentally and numerically to clarify the effects of swirling high temperature air on combustion. Speziale-Sarkar-Gatski (SSG) Reynolds stress model, Eddy-Dissipation Model (EDM), Discrete Ordinates Method (DTM) combined with Weighted-Sum-of-Grey Gases Model (WSGG) were employed for the numerical simulation. Both Thermal-NO and Prompt-NO mechanism were considered to evaluate the NO formation. Temperature distribution, NO emissions by experiment and computation in swirling and non-swirling patterns show combustion characteristics of methane jet flames are totally different. Non-swirling high temperature air made high NO formation while significant NO prohibition were achieved by swirling high temperature air. Furthermore, velocity fields, dimensionless major species mole fraction distributions and Thermal-NO molar reaction rate profiles by computation interpret an inner exhaust gas recirculation formed in the combustion zone in swirling case.

CRETACEOUS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY USING DINOSAUR & PLANT PALEOBIOGEOGRAPHY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, A.; Main, D. J.; Noto, C. R.; Moore, T. L.; Scotese, C.

2009-12-01

The Early Cretaceous was characterized by cool poles and moderate global temperatures (~16° C). During the mid and late Cretaceous, long-term global warming (~20° - 22° C) was driven by increasing levels of CO2, rising sea level (lowering albedo) and the continuing breakup of Pangea. Paleoclimatic reconstructions for four time intervals during the Cretaceous: Middle Campanian (80 Ma), Cenomanian/Turonian (90 Ma), Early Albian (110 Ma) and Barremian-Hauterivian (130Ma) are presented here. These paleoclimate simulations were prepared using the Fast Ocean and Atmosphere Model (FOAM). The simulated results show the pattern of the pole-to-Equator temperature gradients, rainfall, surface run-off, the location of major rivers and deltas. In order to investigate the effect of potential dispersal routes on paleobiogeographic patterns, a time-slice series of maps from Early - Late Cretaceous were produced showing plots of dinosaur and plant fossil distributions. These Maps were created utilizing: 1) plant fossil localities from the GEON and Paleobiology (PBDB) databases; and 2) dinosaur fossil localities from an updated version of the Dinosauria (Weishampel, 2004) database. These results are compared to two different types of datasets, 1) Paleotemperature database for the Cretaceous and 2) locality data obtained from GEON, PBDB and Dinosauria database. Global latitudinal mean temperatures from both the model and the paelotemperature database were plotted on a series of latitudinal graphs along with the distributions of fossil plants and dinosaurs. It was found that most dinosaur localities through the Cretaceous tend to cluster within specific climate belts, or envelopes. Also, these Cretaceous maps show variance in biogeographic zonation of both plants and dinosaurs that is commensurate with reconstructed climate patterns and geography. These data are particularly useful for understanding the response of late Mesozoic ecosystems to geographic and climatic conditions that differed markedly from the present. Studies of past biotas and their changes may elucidate the role of climatic and geographic factors in driving changes in species distributions, ecosystem organization, and evolutionary dynamics over time.

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kucera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.

2011-05-01

Nine thousand years ago, the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration with a minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of the "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated in the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular a subsurface warming in the Cretan and Western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and the reconstructions from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. However, a reinterpretation of the reconstructions is proposed, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column. Such a depth-integrated approach accounts for the vertical range of preferred habitat depths of the foraminifera used for the reconstructions and strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal. The subsurface warming is recorded by both model and proxies, with a light shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the Western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region.

The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lin; Li, Zhanqing; Yang, Xin; Gong, Hainan; Li, Chao; Xiong, Anyuan

2016-04-01

Understanding the causes of long-term temperature trends is at the core of climate change studies. Any observed trend can result from natural variability or anthropogenic influences or both. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 on simulating the Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR) and explored the potential causes of the long-term trend in the DTR by examining the response of the DTR to natural forcing (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols) in the historical period of 1961-2005. For the climatology, the multimodel ensemble mean reproduced the geographical distribution and amplitude of the DTR over eastern China and India but underestimated the magnitudes of the DTR over the Tibetan Plateau and the high-latitude regions of the Asian continent. These negative biases in the DTR over frigid zones existed in most models. Seasonal biases in the DTR pattern from models were similar to the bias in the annual mean DTR pattern. Based on three selected state-of-the-art models, the observed decreasing trend in the DTR over Asia was reasonably reproduced in the all-forcing run. A comparison of separate forcing experiments revealed that anthropogenic forcing plays the dominant role in the declining trend in the DTR. Observations and model simulations showed that GHG forcing is mainly responsible for the negative trends in the DTR over Asia but that anthropogenic aerosol forcing was also behind the decreasing trend in the DTR over China and especially over eastern China.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Phase behavior of Langmuir monolayers with ionic molecular heads: Molecular simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Castro, Carlos A.; Ramírez-Santiago, Guillermo

2015-03-01

We carried out Monte Carlo simulations in the N ,Π,T ensemble of a Langmuir monolayer coarse-grained molecular model. Considering that the hydrophilic groups can be ionized by modulating acid-base interactions, here we study the phase behavior of a model that incorporates the short-range steric and long-range ionic interactions. The simulations were carried out in the reduced temperature range 0.1 ≤T*<4.0 , where there is a competition of these interactions. Different order parameters were calculated and analyzed for several values of the reduced surface pressure in the interval, 1 ≤Π*≤40. For most of the surface pressures two directions of molecular tilt were found: (i) towards the nearest neighbor (NN) at low temperatures, T*<0.7, and most of the values of Π* and (ii) towards next-nearest neighbors (NNN) in the temperature interval 0.7 ≤T*<1.1 for Π*<25. We also found the coexistence of the NN and NNN at intermediate temperatures and Π*>25 . A low-temperature reentrant disorder-order-disorder transition in the positions of the molecular heads and in the collective tilt of the tails was found for all the surface pressure values. It was also found that the molecular tails arranged forming "rotating patterns" in the temperature interval, 0.5

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

1994-01-01

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-10-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103-1122, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-11-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model using observed spatial patterns from MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; González, Gorka M.; Mai, Juliane; Stisen, Simon

2016-04-01

Distributed hydrologic models are typically calibrated against streamflow observations at the outlet of the basin. Along with these observations from gauging stations, satellite based estimates offer independent evaluation data such as remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (aET) and land surface temperature. The primary objective of the study is to compare model calibrations against traditional downstream discharge measurements with calibrations against simulated spatial patterns and combinations of both types of observations. While the discharge based model calibration typically improves the temporal dynamics of the model, it seems to give rise to minimum improvement of the simulated spatial patterns. In contrast, objective functions specifically targeting the spatial pattern performance could potentially increase the spatial model performance. However, most modeling studies, including the model formulations and parameterization, are not designed to actually change the simulated spatial pattern during calibration. This study investigates the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). This model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the optimization of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) values directly as input. In addition the simulated aET can be estimated at a spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed with MODIS data. To increase our control on spatial calibration we introduced three additional parameters to the model. These new parameters are part of an empirical equation to the calculate crop coefficient (Kc) from daily LAI maps and used to update potential evapotranspiration (PET) as model inputs. This is done instead of correcting/updating PET with just a uniform (or aspect driven) factor used in the mHM model (version 5.3). We selected the 20 most important parameters out of 53 mHM parameters based on a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (Cuntz et al., 2015). We calibrated 1km-daily mHM for the Skjern basin in Denmark using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and inputs at different spatial scales i.e. meteorological data at 10km and morphological data at 250 meters. We used correlation coefficients between observed monthly (summer months only) MODIS data calculated from cloud free days over the calibration period from 2001 to 2008 and simulated aET from mHM over the same period. Similarly other metrics, e.g mapcurves and fraction skill-score, are also included in our objective function to assess the co-location of the grid-cells. The preliminary results show that multi-objective calibration of mHM against observed streamflow and spatial patterns together does not significantly reduce the spatial errors in aET while it improves the streamflow simulations. This is a strong signal for further investigation of the multi parameter regionalization affecting spatial aET patterns and weighting the spatial metrics in the objective function relative to the streamflow metrics.

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

High temperature superconducting YBCO microwave filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghabagheri, S.; Rasti, M.; Mohammadizadeh, M. R.; Kameli, P.; Salamati, H.; Mohammadpour-Aghdam, K.; Faraji-Dana, R.

2018-06-01

Epitaxial thin films of YBCO high temperature superconductor are widely used in telecommunication technology such as microwave filter, antenna, coupler and etc., due to their lower surface resistance and lower microwave loss than their normal conductor counterparts. Thin films of YBCO were fabricated by PLD technique on LAO substrate. Transition temperature and width were 88 K and 3 K, respectively. A filter pattern was designed and implemented by wet photolithography method on the films. Characterization of the filter at 77 K has been compared with the simulation results and the results for a made gold filter. Both YBCO and gold filters show high microwave loss. For YBCO filter, the reason may be due to the improper contacts on the feedlines and for gold filter, low thickness of the gold film has caused the loss increased.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

2014-05-01

Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volcano will be presented. Simulations are made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a high resolution digital elevation map of Montserrat. Simulations with an idealised topography have also been examined, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the Tropics. The model was initialised with soundings from representative days of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season. The heated volcanic dome changes the orographic flow response significantly, depending upon the atmospheric conditions and the magnitude of the dome surface temperature anomaly. The flow regime and qualitative characteristic features, such orographic clouds and rainfall patterns, can all change significantly. For example, the orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased dome temperatures. The implications of these changes on the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards, such as lahars, will be discussed.

Downscaling Thermal Infrared Radiance for Subpixel Land Surface Temperature Retrieval

PubMed Central

Liu, Desheng; Pu, Ruiliang

2008-01-01

Land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from satellite thermal sensors often consists of mixed temperature components. Retrieving subpixel LST is therefore needed in various environmental and ecological studies. In this paper, we developed two methods for downscaling coarse resolution thermal infrared (TIR) radiance for the purpose of subpixel temperature retrieval. The first method was developed on the basis of a scale-invariant physical model on TIR radiance. The second method was based on a statistical relationship between TIR radiance and land cover fraction at high spatial resolution. The two methods were applied to downscale simulated 990-m ASTER TIR data to 90-m resolution. When validated against the original 90-m ASTER TIR data, the results revealed that both downscaling methods were successful in capturing the general patterns of the original data and resolving considerable spatial details. Further quantitative assessments indicated a strong agreement between the true values and the estimated values by both methods. PMID:27879844

Downscaling Thermal Infrared Radiance for Subpixel Land Surface Temperature Retrieval.

PubMed

Liu, Desheng; Pu, Ruiliang

2008-04-06

Land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from satellite thermal sensors often consists of mixed temperature components. Retrieving subpixel LST is therefore needed in various environmental and ecological studies. In this paper, we developed two methods for downscaling coarse resolution thermal infrared (TIR) radiance for the purpose of subpixel temperature retrieval. The first method was developed on the basis of a scale-invariant physical model on TIR radiance. The second method was based on a statistical relationship between TIR radiance and land cover fraction at high spatial resolution. The two methods were applied to downscale simulated 990-m ASTER TIR data to 90-m resolution. When validated against the original 90-m ASTER TIR data, the results revealed that both downscaling methods were successful in capturing the general patterns of the original data and resolving considerable spatial details. Further quantitative assessments indicated a strong agreement between the true values and the estimated values by both methods.

Liquid cooled plate heat exchanger for battery cooling of an electric vehicle (EV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. M.; Rahman, H. Y.; Mahlia, T. M. I.; Sheng, J. L. Y.

2016-03-01

A liquid cooled plate heat exchanger was designed to improve the battery life of an electric vehicle which suffers from premature aging or degradation due to the heat generation during discharging and charging period. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used as a tool to analyse the temperature distribution when a constant surface heat flux was set at the bottom surface of the battery. Several initial and boundary conditions were set based on the past studies on the plate heat exchanger in the simulation software. The design of the plate heat exchanger was based on the Nissan Leaf battery pack to analyse the temperature patterns. Water at different mass flow rates was used as heat transfer fluid. The analysis revealed the designed plate heat exchanger could maintain the surface temperature within the range of 20 to 40°C which is within the safe operating temperature of the battery.

A Study of Pattern Prediction in the Monitoring Data of Earthen Ruins with the Internet of Things.

PubMed

Xiao, Yun; Wang, Xin; Eshragh, Faezeh; Wang, Xuanhong; Chen, Xiaojiang; Fang, Dingyi

2017-05-11

An understanding of the changes of the rammed earth temperature of earthen ruins is important for protection of such ruins. To predict the rammed earth temperature pattern using the air temperature pattern of the monitoring data of earthen ruins, a pattern prediction method based on interesting pattern mining and correlation, called PPER, is proposed in this paper. PPER first finds the interesting patterns in the air temperature sequence and the rammed earth temperature sequence. To reduce the processing time, two pruning rules and a new data structure based on an R-tree are also proposed. Correlation rules between the air temperature patterns and the rammed earth temperature patterns are then mined. The correlation rules are merged into predictive rules for the rammed earth temperature pattern. Experiments were conducted to show the accuracy of the presented method and the power of the pruning rules. Moreover, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall dataset was used to examine the algorithm, and six predictive rules from the air temperature to rammed earth temperature based on the interesting patterns were obtained, with the average hit rate reaching 89.8%. The PPER and predictive rules will be useful for rammed earth temperature prediction in protection of earthen ruins.

The potential for free and mixed convection in sedimentary basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Vlassopoulos, D.

1999-01-01

Free thermal convection and mixed convection are considered as potential mechanisms for mass and heat transport in sedimentary basins. Mixed convection occurs when horizontal flows (forced convection) are superimposed on thermally driven flows. In cross section, mixed convection is characterized by convection cells that migrate laterally in the direction of forced convective flow. Two-dimensional finite-element simulations of variable-density groundwater flow and heat transport in a horizontal porous layer were performed to determine critical mean Rayleigh numbers for the onset of free convection, using both isothermal and semi-conductive boundaries. Additional simulations imposed a varying lateral fluid flux on the free-convection pattern. Results from these experiments indicate that forced convection becomes dominant, completely eliminating buoyancy-driven circulation, when the total forced-convection fluid flux exceeds the total flux possible due to free convection. Calculations of the thermal rock alteration index (RAI=q????T) delineate the patterns of potential diagenesis produced by fluid movement through temperature gradients. Free convection produces a distinct pattern of alternating positive and negative RAIs, whereas mixed convection produces a simpler layering of positive and negative values and in general less diagenetic alteration. ?? Springer-Verlag.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-11-30

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Singh, Hansi A.

2018-01-01

The temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.

The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Here, the temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO 2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity andmore » weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO 2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.« less

Simulation of interior ballistics flows in a shock tube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, F.

1983-07-01

The flow in front of and behind a projectile was investigated in a interior ballistics shock tube simulator. Flow patterns and heat flow were examined for flows with and without gas leakage. The boundary layers behind the piston can clearly be shown by differential interferograms. The dependence of the heat flow into the measuring tube wall on the base form is smaller than the signal perturbations. Flow patterns show no appreciable effect of gas leakage on the flow behind the piston; strong flow effects arise in front of the piston. The same effects are shown by heat flow measurements. In case of gas leakage heat flows into the tube wall before the piston reaches the wall. In the slit between piston and wall a maximum heat flow is found. High temperature gradients, due to the fact that hot gases come closer to the tube wall than in the boundary layer flow behind the piston, lead to high thermal loading of the wall materials which can cause cracks.

Analysis and use of VAS satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, Henry E.; Andrews, Mark J.; Beven, John L., II; Moore, Steven R.; Muller, Bradley M.

1989-01-01

Four interrelated investigations have examined the analysis and use of VAS satellite data. A case study of VAS-derived mesoscale stability parameters suggested that they would have been a useful supplement to conventional data in the forecasting of thunderstorms on the day of interest. A second investigation examined the roles of first guess and VAS radiometric data in producing sounding retrievals. Broad-scale patterns of the first guess, radiances, and retrievals frequently were similar, whereas small-scale retrieval features, especially in the dew points, were often of uncertain origin. Two research tasks considered 6.7 micron middle tropospheric water vapor imagery. The first utilized radiosonde data to examine causes for two areas of warm brightness temperature. Subsidence associated with a translating jet streak was important. The second task involving water vapor imagery investigated simulated imagery created from LAMPS output and a radiative transfer algorithm. Simulated image patterns were found to compare favorably with those actually observed by VAS. Furthermore, the mass/momentum fields from LAMPS were powerful tools for understanding causes for the image configurations.

Climate Intervention as an Optimization Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Ken; Ban-Weiss, George A.

2010-05-01

Typically, climate models simulations of intentional intervention in the climate system have taken the approach of imposing a change (eg, in solar flux, aerosol concentrations, aerosol emissions) and then predicting how that imposed change might affect Earth's climate or chemistry. Computations proceed from cause to effect. However, humans often proceed from "What do I want?" to "How do I get it?" One approach to thinking about intentional intervention in the climate system ("geoengineering") is to ask "What kind of climate do we want?" and then ask "What pattern of radiative forcing would come closest to achieving that desired climate state?" This involves defining climate goals and a cost function that measures how closely those goals are attained. (An important next step is to ask "How would we go about producing these desired patterns of radiative forcing?" However, this question is beyond the scope of our present study.) We performed a variety of climate simulations in NCAR's CAM3.1 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean model and thermodynamic sea ice model. We then evaluated, for a specific set of climate forcing basis functions (ie, aerosol concentration distributions), the extent to which the climate response to a linear combination of those basis functions was similar to a linear combination of the climate response to each basis function taken individually. We then developed several cost functions (eg, relative to the 1xCO2 climate, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean land temperature, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean runoff, minimize rms difference in a combination of these temperature and runoff indices) and then predicted optimal combinations of our basis functions that would minimize these cost functions. Lastly, we produced forward simulations of the predicted optimal radiative forcing patterns and compared these with our expected results. Obviously, our climate model is much simpler than reality and predictions from individual models do not provide a sound basis for action; nevertheless, our model results indicate that the general approach outlined here can lead to patterns of radiative forcing that make the zonal annual mean climate of a high CO2 world markedly more similar to that of a low CO2 world simultaneously for both temperature and hydrological indices, where degree of similarity is measured using our explicit cost functions. We restricted ourselves to zonally uniform aerosol concentrations distributions that can be defined in terms of a positive-definite quadratic equation on the sine of latitude. Under this constraint, applying an aerosol distribution in a 2xCO2 climate that minimized a combination of rms difference in zonal and annual mean land temperature and runoff relative to the 1xCO2 climate, the rms difference in zonal and annual mean temperatures was reduced by ~90% and the rms difference in zonal and annual mean runoff was reduced by ~80%. This indicates that there may be potential for stratospheric aerosols to diminish simultaneously both temperature and hydrological cycle changes caused by excess CO2 in the atmosphere. Clearly, our model does not include many factors (eg, socio-political consequences, chemical consequences, ocean circulation changes, aerosol transport and microphysics) so we do not argue strongly for our specific climate model results, however, we do argue strongly in favor of our methodological approach. The proposed approach is general, in the sense that cost functions can be developed that represent different valuations. While the choice of appropriate cost functions is inherently a value judgment, evaluating those functions for a specific climate simulation is a quantitative exercise. Thus, the use of explicit cost functions in evaluating model results for climate intervention scenarios is a clear way of separating value judgments from purely scientific and technical issues.

Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

2016-08-01

The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was <4 °C. The effects of soil permeability and groundwater temperature (i.e. viscosity and density) were determined. The influence of impermeable obstacles in otherwise homogeneous ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

A numerical study of the effect of urbanization on the climate of Las Vegas metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S. M.; Huang, H. P.; Myint, S. W.

2014-12-01

Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing desert cities. Its developed area has doubled in the last 30 years. An accurate prediction of the effect of urbanization on the climate of the city is crucial for resource management and planning. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a land surface and urban canopy model to investigate the effects of urbanization on the regional climate pattern around Las Vegas. High resolution numerical simulations are performed with a 3 km resolution over the metropolitan area. With identical lateral boundary conditions, three land-use land-cover maps, representing 2006, 1992 and hypothetical 1900, are used in multiple simulations. The differences in the simulated climate among those cases are used to quantify the urban effect. The simulated surface air temperature is validated against observational data from the weather station at the McCarran airport. It is found that urbanization affects substantial warming during the night but a minor cooling during the day. Detailed diagnostics of the surface energy budget are performed to help interpret this result. In addition, the emerging urban structures are found to have a mechanical effect of slowing down the climatological wind field over the urban area. The change in wind, in turn, leads to a secondary modification of the temperature structure within the air shed of the city. This finding suggests the need to combine the mechanical and thermodynamic effects to construct a complete picture of the influence of land cover on urban climate. In all cases of the simulations, it is also demonstrated that urbanization influences surface air temperature mainly within the metropolitan area.

Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, Caroline M.; Allan, Richard P.; Black, Emily

2017-11-01

An objective technique for analysing seasonality, in terms of regime, progression and timing of the wet seasons, is applied in the evaluation of CMIP5 simulations across continental Africa. Atmosphere-only and coupled integrations capture the gross observed patterns of seasonal progression and give mean onset/cessation dates within 18 days of the observational dates for 11 of the 13 regions considered. Accurate representation of seasonality over central-southern Africa and West Africa (excluding the southern coastline) adds credence for future projected changes in seasonality here. However, coupled simulations exhibit timing biases over the Horn of Africa, with the long rains 20 days late on average. Although both sets of simulations detect biannual rainfall seasonal cycles for East and Central Africa, coupled simulations fail to capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline. This is linked with errors in the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperature (SST) and deficient representation of the SST/rainfall relationship.

Numerical Study of Winter Diurnal Convection Over the City of Krasnoyarsk: Effects of Non-freezing River, Undulating Fog and Steam Devils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrebtov, M.; Hanjalić, K.

2017-06-01

We performed a numerical simulation of penetrative convection of an inversion-topped weakly stratified atmospheric boundary layer over urban terrain with a strong localized source of heat and moisture. With some simplifications, the case mimics the real environment of the Krasnoyarsk region in Russia where the non-freezing river Yenisei acts as a thermal and humidity source during winter, generating an undulating fog pattern along the river accompanied with scattered `steam devils'. An idealized full diurnal cycle was simulated using an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) three-equation algebraic flux model and the novel buoyancy-accounting functions for treating the ground boundary conditions. The results show a significant effect of the river on the net temperature and moisture distribution. The localized heat and moisture source leads to strong horizontal convection and marked non-uniformity of humidity concentration in the air. An interplay of several distinct large-scale vortex systems leads to a wavy pattern of moisture plumes over the river. The simulations deal with rare natural phenomena and show the capability of the RANS turbulence closure to capture the main features of flow and scalar fields on an affordable, relatively coarse, computational grid.

Analysis of projected climate change in the Carpathian Basin region based on Holdridge life zone system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Sümegi, Pál

2014-05-01

Nowadays more and more environmental lobbyists believe that climate change must be demonstrated in a new form. The estimated temperature increase can be realized more easily, if the emphasis is on ecological effects of the predicted temperature. For this reason a bioclimatic classification method was used to analyse the projected changes for the Carpathian Basin region. We applied the Holdridge life zone system, which is relatively simple, so our results can be used to inform the population. Holdridge developed a geometric model for climate classification which declares the relationship between classes (life zones) and climate indices (mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ratio). The necessary data for this study was derived from regional climate model (RCM) experiments of the ENSEMBLES project using the SRES A1B emission scenario. The temperature and precipitation data series were bias corrected for the selected RCM simulations. The target area of our investigations is the Carpathian Basin region. Life zones maps were created using the selected RCM simulations and their ensemble mean for the periods: 1961-1990 (T1), 2021-2050 (T2), 2061-2090 (T3). The spatial distribution of life zones and their temporal changes were investigated. According to our results the spatial pattern of life zones changes significantly from T1 to T3. It is possible that some types of life zones (e.g. boreal rain forest) will disappear; and some types (e.g. warm temperate thorn steppe) will appear in the target area. We determined those RCM simulations which predicted the maximum and minimum changes of the spatial pattern of life zones. Maps of T1 were compared to maps of T3 using Cohen's Kappa coefficient. Furthermore, relative extents, vertical distribution patterns and mean centres of life zones have been analysed. These parameters were defined for each decade and also for T1, T2 and T3. The temporal changes of the decadal values were analysed with Mann-Kendall trend test. Overall, our results predict that the mean centres of life zones will shift towards north in most cases. This research was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP-4.2.4.A/ 2-11/1-2012-0001 'National Excellence Program'.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Evolution of relative drifts and temperature anisotropies in expanding collisionless plasmas—1.5D vs. 2.5D hybrid simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneva, Y. G.; Poedts, S.; Araneda, J. A.

2016-02-01

We compare the results from 1.5D and 2.5D hybrid simulations (with fluid electrons, and kinetic/particle-in-cell protons and α particles) to investigate the effect of the solar wind expansion on the evolution of ion relative drifts in collisionless fast wind streams. We initialize the system with initial relative drifts and follow its evolution in time within and without the expanding box model, which takes into account the gradual solar wind expansion in the interplanetary medium. The decay of the differential streaming follows similar pattern in the 1.5D and 2.5D non-expanding cases. For the 1.5D studies we find no difference in the evolution of the initial relative drift speed with and without expansion, whereas in the two-dimensional case the differential streaming is further suppressed once the solar wind expansion is taken into account. This implies that a stronger acceleration source is required to compensate for the effect of the expansion and produce the observed solar wind acceleration rate. The 1.5D case shows stronger oscillations in all plasma properties with higher temperature anisotropies for the minor ions in the first few hundred gyro-periods of the simulations. Yet the preferential perpendicular heating for the minor ions is stronger in the 2.5D case with higher temperature anisotropies at the final stage.

Orographic Flow over an Active Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

2014-05-01

Orographic flows over and around an isolated volcano are studied through a series of numerical model experiments. The volcano top has a heated surface, so can be thought of as "active" but not erupting. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and using both idealised and realistic configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model have been carried out. The study is based on the Soufriere Hills volcano, located on the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean. This is a dome-building volcano, leading to a sharp increase in the surface skin temperature at the top of the volcano - up to tens of degrees higher than ambient values. The majority of the simulations use an idealised topography, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the tropics. The model is initialised with idealised atmospheric soundings, representative of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season in the tropics. The simulations reveal significant changes to the orographic flow response, depending upon the size of the temperature anomaly and the atmospheric conditions. The flow regime and characteristic features such as gravity waves, orographic clouds and orographic rainfall patterns can all be qualitatively changed by the surface heating anomaly. Orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased temperature anomaly. The implications for the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards will also be discussed.

Migration of photoinitiators from cardboard into dry food: evaluation of Tenax® as a food simulant.

PubMed

Van Den Houwe, Kathy; Evrard, Caroline; Van Loco, Joris; Lynen, Frederic; Van Hoeck, Els

2016-05-01

Photoinitiators are widely used to cure ink on packaging materials used in food applications such as cardboards for the packaging of dry foods. Conventional migration testing for long-term storage at ambient temperature with Tenax(®) was applied to paperboard for the following photoinitiators: benzophenone (BP), 4,4'-bis(diethylamino)benzophenone (DEAB), 2-chloro-9H-thioxanthen-9-one (CTX), 1-chloro-4-propoxy-9H-thioxanthen-9-one (CPTX), 4-(dimethylamino)benzophenone (DMBP), 2-ethylanthraquinone (EA), 2-ethylhexyl-4-dimethylaminobenzoate (EDB), ethyl-4-dimethylaminobenzoate (EDMAB), 4-hydroxybenzophenone (4-HBP), 2-hydroxy-4-methoxybenzophenone (HMBP), 2-hydroxy-4'-(2-hydroxyethoxy)-2-methylpropiophenone (HMMP), 2-isopropyl-9H-thioxanthen-9-one (ITX), 4-methylbenzophenone (MBP) and Michler's ketone (MK). Test conditions (10 days at 60°C) were according to Regulation (EU) No. 10/2011 and showed different migration patterns for the different photoinitiators. The results were compared with the migration in cereals after a storage of 6 months at room temperature. The simulation with Tenax at 60°C overestimated actual migration in cereals up to a maximum of 92%. In addition, the effect of a lower contact temperature and the impact of the Tenax pore size were investigated. Analogous simulation performed with rice instead of Tenax resulted in insufficiently low migration rates, showing Tenax is a much stronger adsorbent than rice and cereals.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Simulated and Experimental Damping Properties of a SMA/Fiber Glass Laminated Composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaboldi, S.; Bassani, P.; Biffi, C. A.; Tuissi, A.; Carnevale, M.; Lecis, N.; Loconte, A.; Previtali, B.

2011-07-01

In this article, an advanced laminated composite is developed, combining the high damping properties of shape memory alloy (SMA) with mechanical properties and light weight of a glass-fiber reinforced polymer. The composite is formed by stacking a glass-fiber reinforced epoxy core between two thin patterned strips of SMA alloy, and two further layers of fiber-glass reinforced epoxy. The bars of the laminated composite were assembled and cured in autoclave. The patterning was designed to enhance the interface adhesion between matrix and SMA inserts and optimally exploit the damping capacity of the SMA thin ribbons. The patterned ribbons of the SMA alloy were cut by means of a pulsed fiber laser source. Damping properties at different amplitudes on full scale samples were investigated at room temperature with a universal testing machine through dynamic tension tests, while temperature dependence was investigated by dynamic mechanical analyses (DMA) on smaller samples. Experimental results were used in conjunction with FEM analysis to optimize the geometry of the inserts. Experimental decay tests on the laminated composite have been carried out to identify the adimensional damping value related to their first flexural mode.

Simulation of controllable permeation in PNIPAAm coated membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehrenhofer, Adrian; Wallmersperger, Thomas; Richter, Andreas

2016-04-01

Membranes separate fluid compartments and can comprise transport structures for selective permeation. In biology, channel proteins are specialized in their atomic structure to allow transport of specific compounds (selectivity). Conformational changes in protein structure allow the control of the permeation abilities by outer stimuli (gating). In polymeric membranes, the selectivity is due to electrostatic or size-exclusion. It can thus be controlled by size variation or electric charges. Controllable permeation can be useful to determine particle-size distributions in continuous flow, e.g. in microfluidics and biomedicine to gain cell diameter profiles in blood. The present approach uses patterned polyethylene terephthalate (PET) membranes with hydrogel surface coating for permeation control by size-exclusion. The thermosensitive hydrogel poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAAm) is structured with a cross-shaped pore geometry. A change in the temperature of the water flow through the membrane leads to a pore shape variation. The temperature dependent behavior of PNIPAAm can be numerically modeled with a temperature expansion model, where the swelling and deswelling is depicted by temperature dependent expansion coefficients. In the present study, the free swelling behavior was implemented to the Finite Element tool ABAQUS for the complex composite structure of the permeation control membrane. Experimental values of the geometry characteristics were derived from microscopy images with the tool Image J and compared to simulation results. Numerical simulations using the derived thermo-mechanical model for different pore geometries (circular, rectangle, cross and triangle) were performed. With this study, we show that the temperature expansion model with values from the free swelling behavior can be used to adequately predict the deformation behavior of the complex membrane system. The predictions can be used to optimize the behavior of the membrane pores and the overall performance of the smart membrane.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Domain wall effects on the magnetoresistance in epitaxial nanostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perason, David; Zambano, Antonio; Lukaszew, R. Alejandra

2004-03-01

It has been postulated that adiabatic magneto-transport in sufficiently small contacts in nano-bridges should exhibit significant magnetoresistance at room temperature.[1] In order to study this phenomenon we have patterned nano-bridges on epitaxial ferromagnetic thin films using e-beam lithography. We have tested (001) and (111) oriented Ni films, as well as (001) and (011) CrO2 films. We have patterned bridges with different geometric orientations with respect to the crystallographic axes in the samples. We will show magnetic force microscopy images of the devices and will compare them with OOMMF simulations of the magnetization dynamics during reversal. The magneto-transport was studied using 4-point probe with AC current and Lock-In techniques. We notice here that the size of the observed effect is inversely proportional to the width of the nano-contact. The typical MR observed was 1-2at room temperature. We will show a comparison of MR effects observed in the various films and geometries described. [1]. P. Bruno, Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 2425, (1999).

Simulation of temperature field for temperature-controlled radio frequency ablation using a hyperbolic bioheat equation and temperature-varied voltage calibration: a liver-mimicking phantom study.

PubMed

Zhang, Man; Zhou, Zhuhuang; Wu, Shuicai; Lin, Lan; Gao, Hongjian; Feng, Yusheng

2015-12-21

This study aims at improving the accuracy of temperature simulation for temperature-controlled radio frequency ablation (RFA). We proposed a new voltage-calibration method in the simulation and investigated the feasibility of a hyperbolic bioheat equation (HBE) in the RFA simulation with longer durations and higher power. A total of 40 RFA experiments was conducted in a liver-mimicking phantom. Four mathematical models with multipolar electrodes were developed by the finite element method in COMSOL software: HBE with/without voltage calibration, and the Pennes bioheat equation (PBE) with/without voltage calibration. The temperature-varied voltage calibration used in the simulation was calculated from an experimental power output and temperature-dependent resistance of liver tissue. We employed the HBE in simulation by considering the delay time τ of 16 s. First, for simulations by each kind of bioheat equation (PBE or HBE), we compared the differences between the temperature-varied voltage-calibration and the fixed-voltage values used in the simulations. Then, the comparisons were conducted between the PBE and the HBE in the simulations with temperature-varied voltage calibration. We verified the simulation results by experimental temperature measurements on nine specific points of the tissue phantom. The results showed that: (1) the proposed voltage-calibration method improved the simulation accuracy of temperature-controlled RFA for both the PBE and the HBE, and (2) for temperature-controlled RFA simulation with the temperature-varied voltage calibration, the HBE method was 0.55 °C more accurate than the PBE method. The proposed temperature-varied voltage calibration may be useful in temperature field simulations of temperature-controlled RFA. Besides, the HBE may be used as an alternative in the simulation of long-duration high-power RFA.

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

Simulation of non-linear acoustic field and thermal pattern of phased-array high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU).

PubMed

Wang, Mingjun; Zhou, Yufeng

2016-08-01

HIFU becomes an effective and non-invasive modality of solid tumour/cancer ablation. Simulation of the non-linear acoustic wave propagation using a phased-array transducer in multiple layered media using different focusing strategies and the consequent lesion formation are essential in HIFU planning in order to enhance the efficacy and efficiency of treatment. An angular spectrum approach with marching fractional steps was applied in the wave propagation from phased-array HIFU transducer, and diffraction, attenuation, and non-linearity effects were accounted for by a second-order operator splitting scheme. The simulated distributions of the first three harmonics along and transverse to the transducer axis were compared to the hydrophone measurements. The bioheat equation was used to simulate the subsequent temperature elevation using the deposited acoustic energy, and lesion formation was determined by the thermal dose. Better agreement was found between the measured harmonics distribution and simulation using the proposed algorithm than the Khokhlov-Zabozotskaya-Kuznetsov equation. Variable focusing of the phased-array transducer (geometric focusing, transverse shifting and the generation of multiple foci) can be simulated successfully. The shifting and splitting of focus was found to result in significantly less temperature elevation at the focus and the subsequently, the smaller lesion size, but the larger grating lobe grating lobe in the pre-focal region. The proposed algorithm could simulate the non-linear wave propagation from the source with arbitrary shape and distribution of excitation through multiple tissue layers in high computation accuracy. The performance of phased-array HIFU can be optimised in the treatment planning.

Two-dimensional simulation of a two-phase, regenerative pumped radiator loop utilizing direct contact heat transfer with phase change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhee, Hyop S.; Begg, Lester L.; Wetch, Joseph R.; Jang, Jong H.; Juhasz, Albert J.

An innovative pumped loop concept for 600 K space power system radiators utilizing direct contact heat transfer, which facilitates repeated startup/shutdown of the power system without complex and time-consuming coolant thawing during power startup, is under development. The heat transfer process with melting/freezing of Li in an NaK flow was studied through two-dimensional time-dependent numerical simulations to characterize and predict the Li/NaK radiator performance during startup (thawing) and shutdown (cold-trapping). Effects of system parameters and the criteria for the plugging domain are presented together with temperature distribution patterns in solid Li and subsequent melting surface profile variations in time.

Effects of Convection During the Photodeposition of Polydiacetylene Thin Films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frazier, D. O.; Hung, R. J.; Paley, M. S.; Long, Y. T.

1997-01-01

In this work, we describe a preliminary investigation of buoyancy-driven heat transfer during the growth of thin films from solution following exposure to ultraviolet (UV) light. Irradiation of the growth cell occurs at various directions relative to gravitational acceleration. Through numerical computations, the steady-state flow and temperature profiles are simulated during the course of light exposure. Light-induced polymerization accompanies a heat transfer process through a fairly complicated recirculating flow pattern. A scaling analysis shows that buoyancy-driven velocities only reduce by a factor of 10 for gravity levels as low as 10(exp -2)g(sub 0). Paley et al. observe what appears to be gravitationally sensitive particle development and inclusion in thin films using a photodeposition process. From this study it is clear that production of homogeneous thin films would have to occur in the environment of a complicated flow pattern of recirculation with a nonuniform temperature distribution. Indeed, even when irradiation occurs from the top of the cell, the most stable stratified cell orientation, defects remain in our films due to the persistence of buoyancy-driven convection. To achieve homogeneity, minimal scattering centers, and possible molecular order, photodeposition of polymer films by UV light exposure must proceed in a reduced-convection environment. Fluid mechanics simulations are useful for establishing gravitational sensitivity to this recently discovered process (patent # 5,451,433) for preparing thin films having quite promising nonlinear optical characteristics.

Effects of Convection during the Photodeposition of Polydiacetylene Thin Films

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frazier, D. O.; Hung, R. J.; Paley, M. S.; Long, Y. T.

1997-01-01

In this work, we describe a preliminary investigation of buoyancy-driven heat transfer during the growth of thin films from solution following exposure to ultraviolet (UV) light. Irradiation of the growth cell occurs at various directions relative to gravitational acceleration. Through numerical computations, the steady-state flow and temperature profiles are simulated during the course of light exposure. Light-induced polymerization accompanies a heat transfer process through a fairly complicated recirculating flow pattern. A scaling analysis shows that buoyancy-driven velocities only reduce by a factor of 10 for gravity levels as low as 10(exp -2) g(sub 0). Paley et al. observe what appears to be gravitationally sensitive particle development and inclusion in thin films using a photodeposition process. From this study, it is clear that production of homogeneous thin films would have to occur in the environment of a complicated flow pattern of recirculation with a nonuniform temperature distribution. Indeed, even when irradiation occurs from the top of the cell, the most stable stratified cell orientation, defects remain in our films due to the persistence of buoyancy-driven convection. To achieve homogeneity, minimal scattering centers, and possible molecular order, photodeposition of polymer films by UV light exposure must proceed in a reduced-convection environment. Fluid mechanics simulations are useful for establishing gravitational sensitivity to this recently discovered process (patent # 5,451,433) for preparing thin films having quite promising nonlinear optical characteristics.

Noise reduction in heat-assisted magnetic recording of bit-patterned media by optimizing a high/low Tc bilayer structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthsam, O.; Vogler, C.; Suess, D.

2017-12-01

It is assumed that heat-assisted magnetic recording is the recording technique of the future. For pure hard magnetic grains in high density media with an average diameter of 5 nm and a height of 10 nm, the switching probability is not sufficiently high for the use in bit-patterned media. Using a bilayer structure with 50% hard magnetic material with low Curie temperature and 50% soft magnetic material with high Curie temperature to obtain more than 99.2% switching probability leads to very large jitter. We propose an optimized material composition to reach a switching probability of Pswitch > 99.2% and simultaneously achieve the narrow transition jitter of pure hard magnetic material. Simulations with a continuous laser spot were performed with the atomistic simulation program VAMPIRE for a single cylindrical recording grain with a diameter of 5 nm and a height of 10 nm. Different configurations of soft magnetic material and different amounts of hard and soft magnetic material were tested and discussed. Within our analysis, a composition with 20% soft magnetic and 80% hard magnetic material reaches the best results with a switching probability Pswitch > 99.2%, an off-track jitter parameter σoff,80/20 = 0.46 nm and a down-track jitter parameter σdown,80/20 = 0.49 nm.

Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

PubMed

Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

2017-07-01

For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

[Indoor simulation on dew formation on plant leaves].

PubMed

Gao, Zhi-Yong; Wang, You-Ke; Wei, Xin-Guang; Liu, Shou-Yang; He, Zi-Li; Zhou, Yu-Hong

2014-03-01

Dew forming on plant leaves through water condensation plays a significant ecological role in arid and semi-arid areas as an ignorable fraction of water resources. In this study, an artificial intelligent climate chamber and an automatic temperature-control system for leaves were implemented to regulate the ambient temperature, the leaf surface temperature and the leaf inclination for dew formation. The impact of leaf inclination, ambient temperature and dew point-leaf temperature depression on the rate and quantity of dew accumulation on leaf surface were analyzed. The results indicated that the accumulation rate and the maximum volume of dew on leaves decreased with increasing the leaf inclination while increased with the increment of dew point-leaf temperature depression, ambient temperature and relative humidity. Under the horizontal configuration, dew accumulated linearly on leaf surface over time until the maximum volume (0.80 mm) was reached. However, dew would fall down after reaching the maximum volume when the leaf inclination existed (45 degrees or 90 degrees), significantly slowing down the accumulative rate, and the zigzag pattern for the dynamic of dew accumulation appeared.

Emissions and performance of catalysts for gas turbine catalytic combustors. [automobile engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, D. N.

1977-01-01

Three noble-metal monolithic catalysts were tested in a 12-cm-dia. combustion test rig to obtain emissions and performance data at conditions simulating the operation of a catalytic combustor for an automotive gas turbine engine. Tests with one of the catalysts at 800 K inlet mixture temperature, 3 x 10 to the 5th Pa pressure, and a reference velocity (catalyst bed inlet velocity) of 10 m/sec demonstrated greater than 99 percent combustion efficiency for reaction temperatures higher than 1300 K. With a reference velocity of 25 m/sec the reaction temperature required to achieve the same combustion-efficiency increased to 1380 K. The exit temperature pattern factors for all three catalysts were below 0.1 when adiabatic reaction temperatures were higher than 1400 K. The highest pressure drop was 4.5 percent at 25 m/sec reference velocity. Nitrogen oxides emissions were less than 0.1 g NO2/kg fuel for all test conditions.

Modeling and flow analysis of pure nylon polymer for injection molding process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuruzzaman, D. M.; Kusaseh, N.; Basri, S.; Oumer, A. N.; Hamedon, Z.

2016-02-01

In the production of complex plastic parts, injection molding is one of the most popular industrial processes. This paper addresses the modeling and analysis of the flow process of the nylon (polyamide) polymer for injection molding process. To determine the best molding conditions, a series of simulations are carried out using Autodesk Moldflow Insight software and the processing parameters are adjusted. This mold filling commercial software simulates the cavity filling pattern along with temperature and pressure distributions in the mold cavity. In the modeling, during the plastics flow inside the mold cavity, different flow parameters such as fill time, pressure, temperature, shear rate and warp at different locations in the cavity are analyzed. Overall, this Moldflow is able to perform a relatively sophisticated analysis of the flow process of pure nylon. Thus the prediction of the filling of a mold cavity is very important and it becomes useful before a nylon plastic part to be manufactured.

Numerical simulation of base flow of a long range flight vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, S.; Rathod, S.; Chandra Murty, M. S. R.; Sinha, P. K.; Chakraborty, Debasis

2012-05-01

Numerical exploration of base flow of a long range flight vehicle is presented for different flight conditions. Three dimensional Navier-Stokes equations are solved along with k-ɛ turbulence model using commercial CFD software. Simulation captured all essential flow features including flow separation at base shoulder, shear layer formation at the jet boundary, recirculation at the base region etc. With the increase in altitude, the plume of the rocket exhaust is seen to bulge more and more and caused more intense free stream and rocket plume interaction leading to higher gas temperature in the base cavity. The flow field in the base cavity is investigated in more detail, which is found to be fairly uniform at different instant of time. Presence of the heat shield is seen to reduce the hot gas entry to the cavity region due to different recirculation pattern in the base region. Computed temperature history obtained from conjugate heat transfer analysis is found to compare very well with flight measured data.

Initial fate of fine ash and sulfur from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemeier, U.; Timmreck, C.; Graf, H.-F.; Kinne, S.; Rast, S.; Self, S.

2009-08-01

Large volcanic eruptions emit huge amounts of sulfur and fine ash into the stratosphere. These products cause an impact on radiative processes, temperature and wind patterns. In simulations with a General Circulation Model including detailed aerosol microphysics, the relation between the impact of sulfur and fine ash is determined for different eruption strengths and locations, one in the tropics and one in high Northern latitudes. Fine ash with effective radii between 1 μm and 15 μm has a lifetime of several days only. Nevertheless, the strong absorption of shortwave and longwave radiation causes additional heating and cooling of ±20 K/day and impacts the evolution of the volcanic cloud. Depending on the location of the volcanic eruption, transport direction changes due to the presence of fine ash, vortices develop and temperature anomalies at ground increase. The results show substantial impact on the local scale but only minor impact on the evolution of sulfate in the stratosphere in the month after the simulated eruptions.

Initial fate of fine ash and sulfur from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemeier, U.; Timmreck, C.; Graf, H.-F.; Kinne, S.; Rast, S.; Self, S.

2009-11-01

Large volcanic eruptions emit huge amounts of sulfur and fine ash into the stratosphere. These products cause an impact on radiative processes, temperature and wind patterns. In simulations with a General Circulation Model including detailed aerosol microphysics, the relation between the impact of sulfur and fine ash is determined for different eruption strengths and locations, one in the tropics and one in high Northern latitudes. Fine ash with effective radii between 1 μm and 15 μm has a lifetime of several days only. Nevertheless, the strong absorption of shortwave and long-wave radiation causes additional heating and cooling of ±20 K/day and impacts the evolution of the volcanic cloud. Depending on the location of the volcanic eruption, transport direction changes due to the presence of fine ash, vortices develop and temperature anomalies at ground increase. The results show substantial impact on the local scale but only minor impact on the evolution of sulfate in the stratosphere in the month after the simulated eruptions.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Holocene climate change in North Africa and the end of the African humid period - results of new high-resolution transient simulations with the MPI-ESM 1.3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Lorenz, Stephan

2017-04-01

The Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology has recently undertaken high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the fully-coupled Earth System Model MPI-ESM 1.3. The simulations cover the last 8000 years and are forced not only by reconstructed Holocene orbital variations and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but also by recent compilations of Holocene volcanic aerosol distributions, variations in spectral solar irradiance, stratospheric ozone and land-use change. The simulations reveal the ubiquitous "Holocene conundrum": simulated global mean temperatures increase during the mid-Holocene and stay constant during the late Holocene. Simulated mid-Holocene near-surface temperatures are too cold in large parts of the world. Simulated precipitation, however, agrees much better with reconstruction than temperatures do. Likewise simulated global biome pattern fit reconstructions nicely, except for North Western America. First results of these simulations are presented with the main focus on the North African monsoon region. The amplitude of the mid-Holocene African Humid Period (AHP) is well captured in terms of precipitation and vegetation cover, so is the south-ward transgression of the termination of the AHP seen in reconstructions. The Holocene weakening and southward retreat of the North African monsoon as well as changes in the monsoon dynamic including shifts in the seasonal cycle and their relation to the locally varying termination of the AHP are discussed in detail. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader (1), Sebastian Bathiany (2), Victor Brovkin (1), Martin Claussen (1,3), Traute Crüger (1), Roberta D'agostino (1), Anne Dallmeyer (1), Sabine Egerer (1), Vivienne Groner (1), Matthias Heinze (1), Tatiana Ilyina (1), Johann Jungclaus (1), Thomas Kleinen (1), Alexander Lemburg (1), Stephan Lorenz (1), Thomas Raddatz (1), Hauke Schmidt (1), Gerhard Schmiedl (3), Bjorn Stevens (1), Claudia Timmreck (1), Matthew Toohey (4) (1) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D (2) Wageningen University, NL (3) CEN, Universität Hamburg, D (4) GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

Climate change, shifting seasons, and the ecohydrology of Devils Hole, Death Valley National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausner, M. B.; Wilson, K. P.; Gaines, D. B.; Suarez, F. I.; Tyler, S. W.

2011-12-01

Devils Hole, a water-filled fracture in the carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley Regional Flow System, comprises an ecosystem that can serve as a bellwether of climate change. This 50 square meter pool of unknown depth is home to the only extant population of the endangered Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis). A shallow shelf in the system provides the most suitable habitat for spawning, and the past pupfish population counts have been correlated to the water level in the system. Recently, however, population declines unrelated to water level have been observed. The 33° C waters of Devils Hole are near the upper threshold for most Cyprinodon species, and the shallow shelf experiences the greatest diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. The extremely limited habitat, small population (the spring, 2011 population survey counted approximately 100 individuals), and precarious nature of populations near survival thresholds combine to make the system exceptionally susceptible to the impacts of climate change. A hydrodynamic model of the shallow shelf was developed to simulate thermal convection in response to a number of energy fluxes, including climatic drivers such as air temperature and solar radiation. Simulations of current conditions demonstrate seasonal and diurnal changes in the temperature of the water and the substrate in which adult pupfish spawn, eggs hatch, and larvae develop. The simulated convection patterns also influence the oxygen dynamics, nutrient cycling, and the food web of the ecosystem. Simulations of future conditions using a delta change methodology point towards changes in the seasonal cycles, which may limit or shift the reproductive season of the species.

Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2010-05-01

Rainfall in southeastern Australia has declined in recent years, particularly during austral autumn over the state of Victoria. A recent study suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) variations in both the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region and in a meridional dipole in the central Indian Ocean have influenced Victorian late autumn rainfall since 1950. However, it remains unclear to what extent SSTs in these and other regions force such a teleconnection. Analysis of a 1080 year simulation by the climate model CSIRO Mk3.5 shows that the model Victorian rainfall is correlated rather realistically with SSTs but that part of the above relationships is due to the model ENSO. Furthermore, the remote patterns of pressure, rainfall, and land temperature greatly diminish when the data are lagged by 1 month, suggesting that the true forcing by the persisting SSTs is weak. In a series of simulations of the atmospheric Mk3.5 with idealized SST anomalies, raised SSTs to the east of Indonesia lower the simulated Australian rainfall, while those to the west raise it. A positive ITF anomaly lowers pressure over Australia, but with little effect on Victorian rainfall. The meridional dipole and SSTs to the west and southeast of Australia have little direct effect on southeastern Australia in the model. The results suggest that tropical SSTs predominate as an influence on Victorian rainfall. However, the SST indices appear to explain only a fraction of the observed trend, which in the case of decadal means remains within the range of unforced variability simulated by Mk3.5.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

The diversity of floral temperature patterns, and their use by pollinators

PubMed Central

Harrap, Michael JM; Hempel de Ibarra, Natalie; Whitney, Heather M

2017-01-01

Pollinating insects utilise various sensory cues to identify and learn rewarding flower species. One such cue is floral temperature, created by captured sunlight or plant thermogenesis. Bumblebees, honeybees and stingless bees can distinguish flowers based on differences in overall temperature between flowers. We report here that floral temperature often differs between different parts of the flower creating a temperature structure or pattern. Temperature patterns are common, with 55% of 118 plant species thermographed, showing within-flower temperature differences greater than the 2°C difference that bees are known to be able to detect. Using differential conditioning techniques, we show that bumblebees can distinguish artificial flowers differing in temperature patterns comparable to those seen in real flowers. Thus, bumblebees are able to perceive the shape of these within-flower temperature patterns. Floral temperature patterns may therefore represent a new floral cue that could assist pollinators in the recognition and learning of rewarding flowers. PMID:29254518

Analysis of weld geometry and liquid flow in laser transmission welding between polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and Ti6Al4V based on numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Yuewei; Zheng, Kang; Shin, Yung C.; Wu, Benxin

2018-07-01

The laser transmission welding of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and titanium alloy Ti6Al4V involving the evaluating of the resultant geometry and quality of welds is investigated using a fiber laser in this paper. A 3D transient numerical model considering the melting and fluid flow is developed to predict the weld geometry and porosity formation. The temperature field, molten pool and liquid flow are simulated with varying laser power and welding speed based on the model. It is observed that the weld geometry predictions from the numerical simulation are in good agreement with the experimental data. The results show that the porosity consistently appears in the high temperature region due to the decomposition of PET. In addition, it has also been found that the molten pool with a vortex flow pattern is formed only in the PET layer and the welding processing parameters have significant effects on the fluid flow, which eventually affects the heat transfer, molten pool geometry and weld formation. Consequently, it is shown adopting appropriate welding processing parameters based on the proposed model is essential for the sound weld without defects.

Full-scale simulation and reduced-order modeling of a thermoacoustic engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scalo, Carlo; Lin, Jeff; Lele, Sanjiva; Hesselink, Lambertus

2013-11-01

We have carried out the first three-dimensional numerical simulation of a thermoacoustic Stirling heat-engine. The goal is to lay the groundwork for full-scale Navier-Stokes simulations to advance the state-of-the-art low-order modeling and design of such devices. The model adopted is a long resonator with a heat-exchanger/regenerator (HX/REG) unit on one end - the only component not directly resolved. A temperature difference across the HX/REG unit of 200 K is sufficient to initiate the thermoacoustic instability. The latter is a Lagrangian process that only intensifies acoustic waves traveling in the direction of the imposed temperature gradient. An acoustic network of traveling waves is thus obtained and compared against low-order prediction tools such as DeltaEC. Non-linear effects such as system-wide streaming flow patterns are rapidly established. These are responsible for the mean advection of hot fluid away from the HX/REG (i.e. thermal leakage). This unwanted effect is contained by the introduction of a second ambient heat-exchanger allowing for the establishment of a dynamical thermal equilibrium in the system. A limit cycle is obtained at +178 dB.

System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Simonovic, S. P.

2002-09-01

This study uses a system dynamics approach to explore hydrological processes in the geographic locations where the main contribution to flooding is coming from the snowmelt. Temperature is identified as a critical factor that affects watershed hydrological processes. Based on the dynamic processes of the hydrologic cycle occurring in a watershed, the feedback relationships linking the watershed structure, as well as the climate factors, to the streamflow generation were identified prior to the development of a system dynamics model. The model is used to simulate flood patterns generated by snowmelt under temperature change in the spring. Model structure captures a vertical water balance using five tanks representing snow, interception, surface, subsurface and groundwater storage. Calibration and verification results show that temperature change and snowmelt play a key role in flood generation. Results indicate that simulated values match observed data very well. The goodness-of-fit between simulated and observed peak flow data is measured using coefficient of efficiency, coefficient of determination and square of the residual mass curve coefficient. For the Assiniboine River all three measures were in the interval between 0·92 and 0·96 and for the Red River between 0·89 and 0·97. The model is capable of capturing the essential dynamics of streamflow formation. Model input requires a set of initial values for all state variables and the time series of daily temperature and precipitation information. Data from the Red River Basin, shared by Canada and the USA, are used in the model development and testing.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.

2012-06-01

In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of two model intercomparison projects: GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and IMPLICC (EU project "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change"). In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged compared to the control simulation, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone, the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, in many regions of comparable magnitude but globally of opposite sign.

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Surface diffusion of Si, Ge and C adatoms on Si (001) substrate studied by the molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhi-Hui; Yu, Zhong-Yuan; Lu, Peng-Fei; Liu, Yu-Min

2009-10-01

Depositions of Si, Ge and C atoms onto a preliminary Si (001) substrate at different temperatures are investigated by using the molecular dynamics method. The mechanism of atomic self-assembling occurring locally on the flat terraces between steps is suggested. Diffusion and arrangement patterns of adatoms at different temperatures are observed. At 900 K, the deposited atoms are more likely to form dimers in the perpendicular [110] direction due to the more favourable movement along the perpendicular [110] direction. C adatoms are more likely to break or reconstruct the dimers on the substrate surface and have larger diffusion distances than Ge and Si adatoms. Exchange between C adatoms and substrate atoms are obvious and the epitaxial thickness is small. Total potential energies of adatoms and substrate atoms involved in the simulation cell are computed. When a newly arrived adatom reaches the stable position, the potential energy of the system will decrease and the curves turns into a ladder-like shape. It is found that C adatoms can lead to more reduction of the system energy and the potential energy of the system will increase as temperature increases.

Process solutions for reducing PR residue over non-planar wafer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, C. H.; Huang, C. H.; Yang, Elvis; Yang, T. H.; Chen, K. C.; Lu, Chih-Yuan

2011-03-01

SAS (Self-Aligned Source) process has been widely adopted on manufacturing NOR Flash devices. To form the SAS structure, the compromise between small space patterning and sufficiently removing photo resist residue in topographical substrate has been a critical challenge as the device scaling down. In this study, photo simulation, layout optimization, resist processing and tri-layer materials were evaluated to form defect-free and highly extendible SAS structure for NOR Flash devices. Photo simulation suggested more coherent light source allowed the incident light to reach the trench bottom that facilitates the removal of photo resist. Mask bias also benefited the process latitude extension for residue-free SAS printing. In the photo resist processing, both lowering the SB (Soft Bake) and raising PEB (Post-Exposure Bake) temperature of photo resist were helpful to broaden the process window but the final pattern profile was not good enough. Thermal flow for pos-exposure pattern shrinkage achieved small CD (Critical Dimension) patterning with residue-free, however the materials loading effect is another issue to be addressed at memory array boundary. Tri-layer scheme demonstrated good results in terms of free from residue, better substrate reflectivity control, enabling smaller space printing to loosen overlay specification and minimizing the poly gate clipping defect. It was finally proposed to combine with etch effort to from the SAS structure. Besides it is also promising to extend to even smaller technology nodes.

Comparison of real and computer-simulated outcomes of LASIK refractive surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cano, Daniel; Barbero, Sergio; Marcos, Susana

2004-06-01

Computer simulations of alternative LASIK ablation patterns were performed for corneal elevation maps of 13 real myopic corneas (range of myopia, -2.0 to -11.5 D). The computationally simulated ablation patterns were designed with biconic surfaces (standard Munnerlyn pattern, parabolic pattern, and biconic pattern) or with aberrometry measurements (customized pattern). Simulated results were compared with real postoperative outcomes. Standard LASIK refractive surgery for myopia increased corneal asphericity and spherical aberration. Computations with the theoretical Munnerlyn ablation pattern did not increase the corneal asphericity and spherical aberration. The theoretical parabolic pattern induced a slight increase of asphericity and spherical aberration, explaining only 40% of the clinically found increase. The theoretical biconic pattern controlled corneal spherical aberration. Computations showed that the theoretical customized pattern can correct high-order asymmetric aberrations. Simulations of changes in efficiency due to reflection and nonnormal incidence of the laser light showed a further increase in corneal asphericity. Consideration of these effects with a parabolic pattern accounts for 70% of the clinical increase in asphericity.

Modeling Hydrodynamics and Heat Transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, and Implications for Water Quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Tamara M.; Cheng, Ralph T.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.; Hoilman, Gene R.; Lindenberg, Mary K.; Wellman, Roy E.

2008-01-01

The three-dimensional numerical model UnTRIM was used to model hydrodynamics and heat transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, between mid-June and mid-September in 2005 and between mid-May and mid-October in 2006. Data from as many as six meteorological stations were used to generate a spatially interpolated wind field to use as a forcing function. Solar radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity data all were available at one or more sites. In general, because the available data for all inflows and outflows did not adequately close the water budget as calculated from lake elevation and stage-capacity information, a residual inflow or outflow was used to assure closure of the water budget. Data used for calibration in 2005 included lake elevation at 3 water-level gages around the lake, water currents at 5 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sites, and temperature at 16 water-quality monitoring locations. The calibrated model accurately simulated the fluctuations of the surface of the lake caused by daily wind patterns. The use of a spatially variable surface wind interpolated from two sites on the lake and four sites on the shoreline generally resulted in more accurate simulation of the currents than the use of a spatially invariant surface wind as observed at only one site on the lake. The simulation of currents was most accurate at the deepest site (ADCP1, where the velocities were highest) using a spatially variable surface wind; the mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) for the depth-averaged speed over a 37-day simulation from July 26 to August 31, 2005, were 0.50 centimeter per second (cm/s) and 3.08 cm/s, respectively. Simulated currents at the remaining sites were less accurate and, in general, underestimated the measured currents. The maximum errors in simulated currents were at a site near the southern end of the trench at the mouth of Howard Bay (ADCP7), where the ME and RMSE in the depth-averaged speed were 3.02 and 4.38 cm/s, respectively. The range in ME of the temperature simulations over the same period was ?0.94 to 0.73 degrees Celsius (?C), and the RMSE ranged from 0.43 to 1.12?C. The model adequately simulated periods of stratification in the deep trench when complete mixing did not occur for several days at a time. The model was validated using boundary conditions and forcing functions from 2006 without changing any calibration parameters. A spatially variable wind was used. Data for the model validation periods in 2006 included lake elevation at 4 gages around the lake, currents collected at 2 ADCP sites, and temperature collected at 21 water-quality monitoring locations. Errors generally were larger than in 2005. ME and RMSE in the simulated velocity at ADCP1 were 2.30 cm/s and 3.88 cm/s, respectively, for the same 37-day simulation over which errors were computed for 2005. The ME in temperature over the same period ranged from ?0.56 to 1.5?C and the RMSE ranged from 0.41 to 1.86?C. Numerical experiments with conservative tracers were used to demonstrate the prevailing clockwise circulation patterns in the lake, and to show the influence of water from the deep trench located along the western shoreline of the lake on fish habitat in the northern part of the lake. Because water exiting the trench is split into two pathways, the numerical experiments indicate that bottom water from the trench has a stronger influence on water quality in the northern part of the lake, and surface water from the trench has a stronger influence on the southern part of the lake. This may be part of the explanation for why episodes of low dissolved oxygen tend to be more severe in the northern than in the southern part of the lake.

Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

Tidal dynamics of the Terminos Lagoon, Mexico: observations and 3D numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras Ruiz Esparza, Adolfo; Douillet, Pascal; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge

2014-09-01

The tidal circulation patterns in the Terminos Lagoon were studied based on the analysis of 1 year of measurements and numerical simulations using a baroclinic 3D hydrodynamic model, the MARS3D. A gauging network was installed consisting of six self-recording pressure-temperature sensors, a tide gauge station and two current profilers, with pressure and temperature sensors moored in the main lagoon inlets. Model simulations were validated against current and sea level observations and were used to analyse the circulation patterns caused by the tidal forcing. The numerical model was forced with eight harmonic components, four diurnal ( K 1, O 1, P 1, Q 1) and four semi-diurnal ( M 2, S 2, N 2, K 2), extracted from the TPX0.7 database. The tidal patterns in the study area vary from mixed, mainly diurnal in the two main inlets of the lagoon, to diurnal in its interior. The tidal residual circulation inside the lagoon is dominated by a cyclonic gyre. The results indicate a net flux from the southwest Ciudad del Carmen inlet (CdC) towards the northeast Puerto Real inlet (PtR) along the southern side of the lagoon and the opposite in the northern side. The results indicate two areas of strong currents in the vicinity of the inlets and weak currents inside the lagoon. The area of strong currents in the vicinity of the CdC inlet is larger than that observed in the PtR inlet. Nevertheless, the current analysis indicates that the highest current speeds, which can reach a magnitude of 1.9 m s-1, occurred in PtR. A further analysis of the tide distortion in the inlets revealed that both passages are ebb dominated.

High Temperature Induced Glume Closure Resulted in Lower Fertility in Hybrid Rice Seed Production.

PubMed

Yan, Haoliang; Zhang, Binglin; Zhang, Yunbo; Chen, Xinlan; Xiong, Hui; Matsui, Tsutomu; Tian, Xiaohai

2016-01-01

Predicted climate changes, in particular, the increased dimension and frequency of heat waves, are expected to affect crop growth in the future seriously. Hybrid rice relies on seed production from male sterile and restorer lines. Experiments were conducted over two consecutive years to compare the high temperature tolerance of parents of different hybrid rice combinations, in terms of fertility rate, flowering pattern, pollination and physiological parameters of the lodicule. Three male sterile lines and a broad compatibility restorer line (as pollen donor and conventional variety as well) were grown to heading stage and then treated with average daily temperatures of 26°C (range 23-30°C), 28°C (25-32°C), and 30°C (26-34°C), respectively, continued for 5-7 days each in a natural light phytotron which simulated the local typical high temperature weather in the field. The results indicated that male sterile lines were more sensitive to high temperature than the restorer line for fertility rate, and the sensitivity varied between varieties. The fertility rate of the restorer line was maintained at about 90% under the high temperature treatments, while it decreased in the male sterile lines by 23.3 and 48.1% at 28 and 30°C, respectively. The fertility rate of the most sensitive line declined by 70%, and the tolerant line declined by 34% at 30°C. Glume closure in the male sterile lines was a major reason for the reduced fertility rate under high temperature, which is closely correlated with carbohydrates content and the vascular bundle pattern in the lodicule. The present study identified a useful trait to select male sterile lines with high temperature tolerance for seed production.

Mapping malaria incidence distribution that accounts for environmental factors in Maputo Province - Mozambique

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. Methods A Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC. Results For winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23. Conclusions The incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year. PMID:20302674

Performance of Regional Climate Model in Simulating Monsoon Onset Over Indian Subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatla, R.; Mandal, B.; Verma, Shruti; Ghosh, Soumik; Mall, R. K.

2018-06-01

The performance of various Convective Parameterization Schemes (CPSs) of Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) for simulation of onset phase of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over Kerala was studied for the period of 2001-2010. The onset date and its associated spatial variation were simulated using RegCM-4.3 four core CPS, namely Kuo, Tiedtke, Emanuel and Grell; and with two mixed convection schemes Mix98 (Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean) and Mix99 (Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean) on the basis of criteria given by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (Pai and Rajeevan in Indian summer monsoon onset: variability and prediction. National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department, 2007). It has been found that out of six CPS, two schemes, namely Tiedtke and Mix99 simulated the onset date properly. The onset phase is characterized with several transition phases of atmosphere. Therefore, to study the thermal response or the effect of different sea surface temperature (SST), namely ERA interim (ERSST) and weekly optimal interpolation (OI_WK SST) on Indian summer monsoon, the role of two different types of SST has been used to investigate the simulated onset date. In addition, spatial atmospheric circulation pattern during onset phase were analyzed using reanalyze dataset of ERA Interim (EIN15) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), respectively, for wind and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) pattern. Among the six convective schemes of RegCM-4.3 model, Tiedtke is in good agreement with actual onset dates and OI_WK SST forcing is better for simulating onset of ISM over Kerala.

21 Layer troposphere-stratosphere climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Suozzo, R.; Lacis, A.; Russell, G.; Hansen, J.

1984-01-01

The global climate model is extended through the stratosphere by increasing the vertical resolution and raising the rigid model top to the 0.01 mb (75 km) level. The inclusion of a realistic stratosphere is necessary for the investigation of the climate effects of stratospheric perturbations, such as changes of ozone, aerosols or solar ultraviolet irradiance, as well as for studying the effect on the stratosphere of tropospheric climate changes. The observed temperature and wind patterns throughout the troposphere and stratosphere are simulated. In addition to the excess planetary wave amplitude in the upper stratosphere, other model deficiences include the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric temperatures being 5 to 10 C too cold in winter at high latitudes and the temperature at 50 to 60 km altitude near the equator are too cold. Methods of correcting these deficiencies are discussed.

Intermittency in flux driven kinetic simulations of trapped ion turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmet, G.; Ghendrih, Ph.; Sarazin, Y.; Garbet, X.; Grandgirard, V.

2008-02-01

Flux driven kinetic transport is analysed for deeply trapped ion turbulence with the code GYSELA. The main observation is the existence of a steady state situation with respect to the statistics, in particular the balance between the injected energy and the time averaged energy flowing out through the outer edge boundary layer. The temperature is characterised by a very bursty behaviour with a skewed PDF. Superimposed to these short time scale fluctuations, one finds a regime with a strong increase of the zonal flows and a quenching of the turbulent energy. During this phase of such a predator-prey cycle, the core temperature rapidly increases while the edge temperature gradually decreases. The end of this reduced transport regime is governed by the onset of turbulence that governs large relaxation events, and a strong modification of the zonal flow pattern.

Controlling for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders in time-series epidemiological models: a simulation study.

PubMed

Perrakis, Konstantinos; Gryparis, Alexandros; Schwartz, Joel; Le Tertre, Alain; Katsouyanni, Klea; Forastiere, Francesco; Stafoggia, Massimo; Samoli, Evangelia

2014-12-10

An important topic when estimating the effect of air pollutants on human health is choosing the best method to control for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders, such as temperature and humidity. Semi-parametric Poisson time-series models include smooth functions of calendar time and weather effects to control for potential confounders. Case-crossover (CC) approaches are considered efficient alternatives that control seasonal confounding by design and allow inclusion of smooth functions of weather confounders through their equivalent Poisson representations. We evaluate both methodological designs with respect to seasonal control and compare spline-based approaches, using natural splines and penalized splines, and two time-stratified CC approaches. For the spline-based methods, we consider fixed degrees of freedom, minimization of the partial autocorrelation function, and general cross-validation as smoothing criteria. Issues of model misspecification with respect to weather confounding are investigated under simulation scenarios, which allow quantifying omitted, misspecified, and irrelevant-variable bias. The simulations are based on fully parametric mechanisms designed to replicate two datasets with different mortality and atmospheric patterns. Overall, minimum partial autocorrelation function approaches provide more stable results for high mortality counts and strong seasonal trends, whereas natural splines with fixed degrees of freedom perform better for low mortality counts and weak seasonal trends followed by the time-season-stratified CC model, which performs equally well in terms of bias but yields higher standard errors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Characteristics of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation simulation in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, K.; Naoe, H.

2016-12-01

Whether climate models drive Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) appropriately is important to assess QBO impact on climate change such as global warming and solar related variation. However, there were few models generating QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This study focuses on dynamical structure of the QBO and its sensitivity to background wind pattern and model configuration. We present preliminary results of experiments designed by "Towards Improving the QBO in Global Climate Models (QBOi)", which is derived from the Stratosphere-troposphere processes and their role in climate (SPARC), in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model, MRI-ESM2. The simulations were performed in present-day climate condition, repeated annual cycle condition with various CO2 level and sea surface temperatures, and QBO hindcast. In the present climate simulation, zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere generally exhibits realistic behavior of the QBO. Equatorial zonal wind variability associated with QBO is overestimated in upper stratosphere and underestimated in lower stratosphere. In the MRI-ESM2, the QBO behavior is mainly driven by gravity wave drag parametrization (GWDP) introduced in Hines (1997). Comparing to reanalyses, shortage of resolved wave forcing is found especially in equatorial lower stratosphere. These discrepancies can be attributed to difference in wave forcing, background wind pattern and model configuration. We intend to show results of additional sensitivity experiments to examine how model configuration and background wind pattern affect resolved wave source, wave propagation characteristics, and QBO behavior.

High-resolution spatial distribution of temperature over Berlin simulated by the mesoscale model METRAS and comparison with measured data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodoudi, Sahar; Schäfer, Kerstin; Grawe, David; Petrik, Ronny; Heinke Schlünzen, K.

2014-05-01

The world's population is projected to increase in the next decades especially in urban areas. Additionally, the living conditions are affected largely by the local urban climate. The urban climate is a complex local system which might change differently than the regional climate. Studying the spatial distribution of air temperature and urban heat island intensity is one of the major concerns in the climate change scenarios. Due to the expected higher frequency of heat waves in the future and the related heat stress, high resolution distribution of air temperature is an important key for urban planning and development. In this study the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Transport and Fluid Model (METRAS) developed at the University of Hamburg is used to simulate the air temperature for the urban area of Berlin. The forcing data have been derived from the ECMWF reanalysis data. We have used three nested domains (resolution of 4 km, 1 km, 200 m) to simulate the temperature in Berlin. Evaluation of these mesoscale model results is challenging for urban areas, due to the sparse and heterogeneous distribution of meteorological stations and the heterogeneous land cover in urban areas. The Meteorological Institute of the Free University of Berlin organized six measurement campaigns in 2012. Measurements were taken at 31 different routes through Berlin using mobile measurement systems. In comparison with data from permanent weather stations the mobile measurements show a general overestimation of temperature and underestimation of relative humidity values. This may be the result of the different land cover types and places, where the mobile measurements and the stationary measurements were taken. The highly resolved (200 m) simulated air temperature from METRAS has been verified for three different selected summer days in 2012 with different pressure patterns over Berlin. For the model evaluation, the data from the measuring campaign and 34 permanent stations have been used. The results show that METRAS overestimated the cloud water and rain water content on the first two selected days. The air temperature on the first two days has been underestimated by the model due to the reduced incoming radiation, and the strength of the urban heat island has not been reproduced. The mean absolute error is higher during the day time and especially in the city center. The last selected day is a sunny day with light wind from the Northwest. On this day the diurnal temperature variation is well reproduced by the model, although METRAS predicts short showers for several small areas during the afternoon. The showers do not lead to a temperature decrease over the whole city. The mean absolute error is much smaller in comparison with the other days. The temperature peak and the urban heat island are well consistent with observations. The mean absolute error is smaller in the city center and larger over the green areas. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature is in a good agreement with the measurements.

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, J. E.; Guetter, P. J.

1980-09-01

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling a 'world that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'world that was' simulations with the regional WRF model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. For example, preliminary analysis suggests that, given no change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the odds of heavy rainfall over the Front Range.

Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

PubMed

Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

2016-01-01

Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

Far-Field Simulation of the Hawaiian Wake: Sea Surface Temperature and Orographic Effects(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafner, Jan; Xie, Shang-Ping

2003-12-01

Recent satellite observations reveal far-reaching effects of the Hawaiian Islands on surface wind, cloud, ocean current, and sea surface temperature (SST) that extend leeward over an unusually long distance (>1000 km). A three-dimensional regional atmospheric model with full physics is used to investigate the cause of this long wake. While previous wind wake studies tend to focus on regions near the islands, the emphasis here is the far-field effects of SST and orography well away from the Hawaiian Islands. In response to an island-induced SST pattern, the model produces surface wind and cloud anomaly patterns that resemble those observed by satellites. In particular, anomalous surface winds are found to converge onto a zonal band of warmer water, with cloud liquid water content enhanced over it but reduced on the northern and southern sides. In the vertical, a two-cell meridional circulation develops of a baroclinic structure with the rising motion and thicker clouds over the warm water band. The model response in the wind and cloud fields supports the hypothesis that ocean atmosphere interaction is crucial for sustaining the island effects over a few thousand kilometers.Near Hawaii, mountains generate separate wind wakes in the model lee of individual islands as observed by satellites. Under orographic forcing, the model simulates the windward cloud line and the southwest-tilted cloud band leeward of the Big Island. In the far field, orographically induced wind perturbations are found to be in geostrophic balance with pressure anomalies, indicative of quasigeostrophic Rossby wave propagation. A shallow-water model is developed for disturbances trapped in the inversion-capped planetary boundary layer. The westward propagation of Rossby waves is found to increase the wake length significantly, consistent with the three-dimensional simulation.

Large eddy simulation of pollutant gas dispersion with buoyancy ejected from building into an urban street canyon.

PubMed

Hu, L H; Xu, Y; Zhu, W; Wu, L; Tang, F; Lu, K H

2011-09-15

The dispersion of buoyancy driven smoke soot and carbon monoxide (CO) gas, which was ejected out from side building into an urban street canyon with aspect ratio of 1 was investigated by large eddy simulation (LES) under a perpendicular wind flow. Strong buoyancy effect, which has not been revealed before, on such pollution dispersion in the street canyon was studied. The buoyancy release rate was 5 MW. The wind speed concerned ranged from 1 to 7.5m/s. The characteristics of flow pattern, distribution of smoke soot and temperature, CO concentration were revealed by the LES simulation. Dimensionless Froude number (Fr) was firstly introduced here to characterize the pollutant dispersion with buoyancy effect counteracting the wind. It was found that the flow pattern can be well categorized into three regimes. A regular characteristic large vortex was shown for the CO concentration contour when the wind velocity was higher than the critical re-entrainment value. A new formula was theoretically developed to show quantitatively that the critical re-entrainment wind velocities, u(c), for buoyancy source at different floors, were proportional to -1/3 power of the characteristic height. LES simulation results agreed well with theoretical analysis. The critical Froude number was found to be constant of 0.7. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermoelectric phonon-glass electron-crystal via ion beam patterning of silicon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Taishan; Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly; Ertekin, Elif

2018-05-01

Ion beam irradiation has recently emerged as a versatile approach to functional materials design. We show in this work that patterned defective regions generated by ion beam irradiation of silicon can create a phonon-glass electron-crystal (PGEC), a long-standing goal of thermoelectrics. By controlling the effective diameter of and spacing between the defective regions, molecular dynamics simulations suggest a reduction of the thermal conductivity by a factor of ˜20 is achievable. Boltzmann theory shows that the thermoelectric power factor remains largely intact in the damaged material. To facilitate the Boltzmann theory, we derive an analytical model for electron scattering with cylindrical defective regions based on partial-wave analysis. Together we predict a figure of merit of Z T ≈0.5 or more at room temperature for optimally patterned geometries of these silicon metamaterials. These findings indicate that nanostructuring of patterned defective regions in crystalline materials is a viable approach to realize a PGEC, and ion beam irradiation could be a promising fabrication strategy.

Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Zhang, David D.; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Lee, Harry F.; Pei, Qing; Cheng, Bo; Li, Chunhai; Ni, Jian; Sun, Aizhi; Lu, Fengyan; Zong, Yongqiang

2017-03-01

Our understanding on the spatial-temporal patterns of climatic variability over the last few millennia in the East Asian monsoon-dominated northern China (NC), and its role at a macro-scale in affecting the prosperity and depression of Chinese dynasties is limited. Quantitative high-resolution, regionally-synthesized palaeoclimatic reconstructions as well as simulations, and numerical analyses of their relationships with various fine-scale, numerical agro-ecological, social-economic, and geo-political historical records during the period of China's history, are presented here for NC. We utilize pollen data together with climate modeling to reconstruct and simulate decadal- to centennial-scale variations in precipitation or temperature for NC during the last 2200 years (-200-2000 AD). We find an overall cyclic-pattern (wet/warm or dry/cold) in the precipitation and temperature anomalies on centennial- to millennial-scale that can be likely considered as a representative for the entire NC by comparison with other related climatic records. We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. We employ variation partitioning and redundancy analysis to quantify the independent effects of climatic factors on accounting for the total variation of 17 fine-grained numerical Chinese historical records. We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%) in causing the overall agro-ecological and macro-geopolitical shifts in imperial China with NC as the central ruling region and an agricultural heartland over the last 2200 years.

Sensitivity of Surface Temperature to Oceanic Forcing via q-Flux Green’s Function Experiments. Part I: Linear Response Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Lu, Jian; Garuba, Oluwayemi

This paper explores the use of linear response function (LRF) to relate the mean sea surface temperature (SST) response to prescribed ocean heat convergence (q-flux) forcings. Two methods for constructing the LRF based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) and Green’s function (GRF) are examined. A 900-year preindustrial simulation from the Community Earth System Model with a slab ocean (CESM-SOM) is used to estimate the LRF using FDT. For GRF, 106 pairs of CESM-SOM simulations with warm and cold q-flux patches are performed. FDT is found to have skill in estimating the SST response to a q-flux forcing when the localmore » SST response is strong, but it fails in inverse estimation of the q-flux forcing for a given SST pattern. In contrast, GRF is shown to be reasonably accurate in estimating both SST response and q-flux forcing. Possible degradation in FDT may be attributed to insufficient data sampling, significant departures of the SST data from Gaussian, and the non-normality of the constructed operator. The accurately estimated GRF-based LRF is used to (i) generate a global surface temperature sensitivity map that shows the q-flux forcing in higher latitudes to be three to four times more effective than in low latitudes in producing global surface warming; (ii) identify the most excitable SST mode (neutral vector) resembling Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; and (iii) estimate a time-invariant q-flux forcing needed for maintaining the GHG-induced SST warming pattern. The GRF experiments will be used to construct LRF for other variables to further explore climate sensitivities and feedbacks.« less

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

The effect of aerosols on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica M. L.

2010-05-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere because of their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Since the beginning of the industrialisation a large increase has been seen mainly in the concentrations of sulphate and black carbon as a result of combustion of fossil fuel and biomass burning. Aerosol particles have a relatively short residence time in the atmosphere why the aerosol concentration shows a large variation spatially as well as in time where high concentrations are found close to emission sources. This leads to a highly varying radiative forcing pattern which modifies temperature gradients which in turn can alter the pressure distribution and lead to changes in the circulation in the atmosphere. In this study, the effect on the wintertime planetary scale waves on the northern hemisphere is specifically considered together with the regional climate impact due to changes in the stationary waves. To investigate the effect of aerosols on the circulation a global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is used (EC-Earth). The aerosol description in EC-Earth consists of prescribed monthly mean mass concentration fields of five different types of aerosols: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct radiative effect is considered and the different aerosol types are treated as external mixtures. Changes in the stationary wave pattern are determined by comparing model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Since the planetary scale waves largely influence the storm tracks and are an important part of the meridional heat transport, changes in the wave pattern may have substantial impact on the climate globally and locally. By looking at changes in the model simulations globally it can be found that the aerosol radiative forcing has the potential to change the stationary wave pattern. Furthermore, it shows that regional changes in the climate occur also where the radiative forcing from aerosol particles is not particularly strong, which would indicate that the large scale dynamical response to aerosol forcing can induce changes in temperature, precipitation and wind patterns outside the region where the forcing is initially located.

Spatial uncertainty analysis: Propagation of interpolation errors in spatially distributed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.L.; Marks, D.G.

1996-01-01

In simulation modelling, it is desirable to quantify model uncertainties and provide not only point estimates for output variables but confidence intervals as well. Spatially distributed physical and ecological process models are becoming widely used, with runs being made over a grid of points that represent the landscape. This requires input values at each grid point, which often have to be interpolated from irregularly scattered measurement sites, e.g., weather stations. Interpolation introduces spatially varying errors which propagate through the model We extended established uncertainty analysis methods to a spatial domain for quantifying spatial patterns of input variable interpolation errors and how they propagate through a model to affect the uncertainty of the model output. We applied this to a model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a demonstration. We modelled PET for three time periods in 1990 as a function of temperature, humidity, and wind on a 10-km grid across the U.S. portion of the Columbia River Basin. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed were interpolated using kriging from 700- 1000 supporting data points. Kriging standard deviations (SD) were used to quantify the spatially varying interpolation uncertainties. For each of 5693 grid points, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were done, using the kriged values of temperature, humidity, and wind, plus random error terms determined by the kriging SDs and the correlations of interpolation errors among the three variables. For the spring season example, kriging SDs averaged 2.6??C for temperature, 8.7% for relative humidity, and 0.38 m s-1 for wind. The resultant PET estimates had coefficients of variation (CVs) ranging from 14% to 27% for the 10-km grid cells. Maps of PET means and CVs showed the spatial patterns of PET with a measure of its uncertainty due to interpolation of the input variables. This methodology should be applicable to a variety of spatially distributed models using interpolated inputs.

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, L.; Tague, C.L.; Baron, Jill S.

2008-01-01

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream-flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R2 = 0.32 and 0.29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200-1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800-2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150-2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600-4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaofeng; Barnston, Anthony G.; Ward, M. Neil

2003-09-01

Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions, the skill of seasonal precipitation outlooks is modest, leaving uncertainty in how to best make use of them. Seasonal precipitation forecast skill is generally lower than the skill of forecasts for temperature or atmospheric circulation patterns for the same location and time. This is attributable to the smaller-scale, more complex physics of precipitation, resulting in its `noisier' and hence less predictable character. By contrast, associated temperature and circulation patterns are larger scale, in keeping with the anomalous boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) that often give rise to them.Using two atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies, the skill of simulations of total seasonal precipitation is examined as a function of the size of the spatial domain over which the precipitation total is averaged. Results show that spatial aggregation increases skill and, by the skill measures used here, does so to a greater extent for precipitation than for temperature. Corroborative results are presented in an observational framework at smaller spatial scales for gauge rainfalls in northeast Brazil.The findings imply that when seasonal forecasts for precipitation are issued, the accompanying guidance on their expected skills should explicitly specify to which spatial aggregation level the skills apply. Information about skills expected at other levels of aggregation should be supplied for users who may work at such levels.

Large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off: expanding the ecohydrological emphasis more explicitly on atmospheric demand. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Adams, H. D.; Eamus, D.; McDowell, N. G.; Law, D. J.; Will, R. E.; Williams, P.; Zou, C.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrology focuses on the interactions of water availability, ecosystem productivity, and biogeochemical cycles via ecological-hydrological connections. These connections can be particularly pronounced and socially relevant when there are large-scale rapid changes in vegetation. One such key change, vegetation mortality, can be triggered by drought and is projected to become more frequent and/or extensive in the future under changing climate. Recent research on drought-induced vegetation die-off has focused primarily on direct drought effects, such as soil moisture deficit, and, to a much lesser degree, the potential for warmer temperatures to exacerbate stress and accelerate mortality. However, temperature is tightly interrelated with atmospheric demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) but the latter has rarely been considered explicitly relative to die-off events. Here we highlight the importance of VPD in addition to soil moisture deficit and warmer temperature as an important driver of future die-off. Recent examples highlighting the importance of VPD include mortality patterns corresponding to VPD drivers, a strong dependence of forest growth on VPD, patterns of observed mortality along an environmental gradient, an experimentally-determined climate envelope for mortality, and a suite of modeling simulations segregating the drought effects of VPD from those of temperature. The vast bulk of evidence suggests that atmospheric demand needs to be considered in addition to temperature and soil moisture deficit in predicting risk of future vegetation die-off and associated ecohydrological transformations.

Multi-Scale Observation and Modelling of Energy and Matter Exchange in the Atmospheric Boundary-Layer (ScaleX Campaigns)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeeman, M. J.; Wolz, K.; Adler, B.; Brenner, C.; De Roo, F.; Emeis, S.; Kalthoff, N.; Mauder, M.; Schäfer, K.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zhao, P.

2016-12-01

We investigated biosphere-atmosphere exchange processes in relation to the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) flow in a shallow valley. Land-use heterogeneity and topography can force local atmospheric flow patterns, including local circulations. Such flow patterns can impair current techniques for the quantification and source attribution of surface-exchange fluxes due to flux-divergence, advection and decoupling. Wind field, temperature and humidity structures in the ABL were observed in high resolution with spatially distributed observations in a 1 km3 experimental domain. Remote-sensing observations of wind, temperature and particles in the ABL (Raman-lidar; RASS; ceilometer; microwave radiometer; 3D Doppler-lidar) were combined with a high-resolution network of in-situ observations that included vertical and horizontal profiles of wind, temperature, carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor concentrations. The experiments were co-located with the long-term eddy covariance (EC) observatory Fendt (DE-Fen; ICOS, TERENO) and were part of international cooperative efforts in 2015 and 2016 (the ScaleX campaigns). The gathered experimental data offers a scale-transcending insight in local flow patterns in mountainous terrain and their influence on surface-exchange fluxes of energy and matter as observed by EC and flux-gradient methodology. In addition, the data is used for validation of Large-Eddy Simulations in complex terrain using PALM-LES. Within this modelling framework, virtual measurements are conducted to further assess the importance of three-dimensional advective and horizontal turbulent transport terms.

The role of climate in the global patterns of ecosystem carbon turnover rates - contrasts between data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Forkel, M.; Khomik, M.; Bellarby, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Jung, M.; Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Saatchi, S. S.; Santoro, M.; Reichstein, M.

2012-12-01

The turnover rates of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and their sensitivity to climate are instrumental properties for diagnosing the interannual variability and forecasting trends of biogeochemical processes and carbon-cycle-climate feedbacks. We propose to globally look at the spatial distribution of turnover rates of carbon to explore the association between bioclimatic regimes and the rates at which carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on data-driven approaches of ecosystem carbon fluxes and data-based estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks it is possible to build fully observationally supported diagnostics. These data driven diagnostics support the benchmarking of CMIP5 model outputs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) with observationally based estimates. The models' performance is addressed by confronting spatial patterns of carbon fluxes and stocks with data, as well as the global and regional sensitivities of turnover rates to climate. Our results show strong latitudinal gradients globally, mostly controlled by temperature, which are not always paralleled by CMIP5 simulations. In northern colder regions is also where the largest difference in temperature sensitivity between models and data occurs. Interestingly, there seem to be two different statistical populations in the data (some with high, others with low apparent temperature sensitivity of carbon turnover rates), where the different models only seem to describe either one or the other population. Additionally, the comparisons within bioclimatic classes can even show opposite patterns between turnover rates and temperature in water limited regions. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the role of finding patterns and intrinsic properties instead of plain magnitudes of fluxes for diagnosing the sensitivities of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to climate. Further, our regional analysis suggests a significant gap in addressing the partial influence of water in the ecosystem carbon turnover rates especially in very cold or water limited regions.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Effect of inlet geometry on macrosegregation during the direct chill casting of 7050 alloy billets: experiments and computer modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Eskin, D. G.; Miroux, A.; Subroto, T.; Katgerman, L.

2012-07-01

Controlling macrosegregation is one of the major challenges in direct-chill (DC) casting of aluminium alloys. In this paper, the effect of the inlet geometry (which influences the melt distribution) on macrosegregation during the DC casting of 7050 alloy billets was studied experimentally and by using 2D computer modelling. The ALSIM model was used to determine the temperature and flow patterns during DC casting. The results from the computer simulations show that the sump profiles and flow patterns in the billet are strongly influenced by the melt flow distribution determined by the inlet geometry. These observations were correlated to the actual macrosegregation patterns found in the as-cast billets produced by having two different inlet geometries. The macrosegregation analysis presented here may assist in determining the critical parameters to consider for improving the casting of 7XXX aluminium alloys.

Turbulent Superstructures in Rayleigh-Bénard convection at different Prandtl number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, Jörg; Pandey, Ambrish; Ender, Martin; Westermann, Rüdiger; Scheel, Janet D.

2017-11-01

Large-scale patterns of the temperature and velocity field in horizontally extended cells can be considered as turbulent superstructures in Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC). These structures are obtained once the turbulent fluctuations are removed by a finite-time average. Their existence has been reported for example in Bailon-Cuba et al.. This large-scale order obeys a strong similarity with the well-studied patterns from the weakly nonlinear regime at lower Rayleigh number in RBC. In the present work we analyze the superstructures of RBC at different Prandtl number for Prandtl values between Pr = 0.005 for liquid sodium and 7 for water. The characteristic evolution time scales, the typical spatial extension of the rolls and the properties of the defects of the resulting superstructure patterns are analyzed. Data are obtained from well-resolved spectral element direct numerical simulations. The work is supported by the Priority Programme SPP 1881 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Accurate Behavioral Simulator of All-Digital Time-Domain Smart Temperature Sensors by Using SIMULINK

PubMed Central

Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, You-Ting

2016-01-01

This study proposes a new behavioral simulator that uses SIMULINK for all-digital CMOS time-domain smart temperature sensors (TDSTSs) for performing rapid and accurate simulations. Inverter-based TDSTSs offer the benefits of low cost and simple structure for temperature-to-digital conversion and have been developed. Typically, electronic design automation tools, such as HSPICE, are used to simulate TDSTSs for performance evaluations. However, such tools require extremely long simulation time and complex procedures to analyze the results and generate figures. In this paper, we organize simple but accurate equations into a temperature-dependent model (TDM) by which the TDSTSs evaluate temperature behavior. Furthermore, temperature-sensing models of a single CMOS NOT gate were devised using HSPICE simulations. Using the TDM and these temperature-sensing models, a novel simulator in SIMULINK environment was developed to substantially accelerate the simulation and simplify the evaluation procedures. Experiments demonstrated that the simulation results of the proposed simulator have favorable agreement with those obtained from HSPICE simulations, showing that the proposed simulator functions successfully. This is the first behavioral simulator addressing the rapid simulation of TDSTSs. PMID:27509507

Ripple pattern formation on silicon surfaces by low-energy ion-beam erosion: Experiment and theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ziberi, B.; Frost, F.; Rauschenbach, B.

The topography evolution of Si surfaces during low-energy noble-gas ion-beam erosion (ion energy {<=}2000 eV) at room temperature has been studied. Depending on the ion-beam parameters, self-organized ripple patterns evolve on the surface with a wavelength {lambda}<100 nm. Ripple patterns were found to occur at near-normal ion incidence angles (5 deg. -30 deg.) with the wave vector oriented parallel to the ion-beam direction. The ordering and homogeneity of these patterns increase with ion fluence, leading to very-well-ordered ripples. The ripple wavelength remains constant with ion fluence. Also, the influence of ion energy on the ripple wavelength is investigated. Additionally itmore » is shown that the mass of the bombarding ion plays a decisive role in the ripple formation process. Ripple patterns evolve for Ar{sup +},Kr{sup +}, and Xe{sup +} ions, while no ripples are observed using Ne{sup +} ions. These results are discussed in the context of continuum theories and by using Monte Carlo simulations.« less

Structural flexibility and protein adaptation to temperature: Molecular dynamics analysis of malate dehydrogenases of marine molluscs.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Liao, Ming-Ling; Meng, Xian-Liang; Somero, George N

2018-02-06

Orthologous proteins of species adapted to different temperatures exhibit differences in stability and function that are interpreted to reflect adaptive variation in structural "flexibility." However, quantifying flexibility and comparing flexibility across proteins has remained a challenge. To address this issue, we examined temperature effects on cytosolic malate dehydrogenase (cMDH) orthologs from differently thermally adapted congeners of five genera of marine molluscs whose field body temperatures span a range of ∼60 °C. We describe consistent patterns of convergent evolution in adaptation of function [temperature effects on K M of cofactor (NADH)] and structural stability (rate of heat denaturation of activity). To determine how these differences depend on flexibilities of overall structure and of regions known to be important in binding and catalysis, we performed molecular dynamics simulation (MDS) analyses. MDS analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between adaptation temperature and heat-induced increase of backbone atom movements [root mean square deviation (rmsd) of main-chain atoms]. Root mean square fluctuations (RMSFs) of movement by individual amino acid residues varied across the sequence in a qualitatively similar pattern among orthologs. Regions of sequence involved in ligand binding and catalysis-termed mobile regions 1 and 2 (MR1 and MR2), respectively-showed the largest values for RMSF. Heat-induced changes in RMSF values across the sequence and, importantly, in MR1 and MR2 were greatest in cold-adapted species. MDS methods are shown to provide powerful tools for examining adaptation of enzymes by providing a quantitative index of protein flexibility and identifying sequence regions where adaptive change in flexibility occurs.

Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 1: A cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization for sensor response (report version)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Raymond, William H.

1990-01-01

The physical retrieval of geophysical parameters based upon remotely sensed data requires a sensor response model which relates the upwelling radiances that the sensor observes to the parameters to be retrieved. In the retrieval of precipitation water contents from satellite passive microwave observations, the sensor response model has two basic components. First, a description of the radiative transfer of microwaves through a precipitating atmosphere must be considered, because it is necessary to establish the physical relationship between precipitation water content and upwelling microwave brightness temperature. Also the spatial response of the satellite microwave sensor (or antenna pattern) must be included in the description of sensor response, since precipitation and the associated brightness temperature field can vary over a typical microwave sensor resolution footprint. A 'population' of convective cells, as well as stratiform clouds, are simulated using a computationally-efficient multi-cylinder cloud model. Ensembles of clouds selected at random from the population, distributed over a 25 km x 25 km model domain, serve as the basis for radiative transfer calculations of upwelling brightness temperatures at the SSM/I frequencies. Sensor spatial response is treated explicitly by convolving the upwelling brightness temperature by the domain-integrated SSM/I antenna patterns. The sensor response model is utilized in precipitation water content retrievals.

The effect of wall temperature distribution on streaks in compressible turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Yang; Xiong, Neng; Qian, Fengxue

2018-05-01

The thermal boundary condition at wall is very important for the compressible flow due to the coupling of the energy equation, and a lot of research works about it were carried out in past decades. In most of these works, the wall was assumed as adiabatic or uniform isothermal surface; the flow over a thermal wall with some special temperature distribution was seldom studied. Lagha studied the effect of uniform isothermal wall on the streaks, and pointed out that higher the wall temperature is, the longer the streak (POF, 2011, 23, 015106). So, we designed streamwise stripes of wall temperature distribution on the compressible turbulent boundary layer at Mach 3.0 to learn the effect on the streaks by means of direct numerical simulation in this paper. The mean wall temperature is equal to the adiabatic case approximately, and the width of the temperature stripes is in the same order as the width of the streaks. The streak patterns in near-wall region with different temperature stripes are shown in the paper. Moreover, we find that there is a reduction of friction velocity with the wall temperature stripes when compared with the adiabatic case.

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into a Mesoscale Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Suggs, Ron; McNider, Richard T.; Jedlovec, Gary; Dembek, Scott; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A technique has been developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The assimilation technique has been applied to the Oklahoma-Kansas region during the spring-summer 2000 time period when dynamic changes in vegetation cover occur. In April, central Oklahoma is characterized by large NDVI associated with winter wheat while surrounding areas are primarily rangeland with lower NDVI. In July the vegetation pattern reverses as the central wheat area changes to low NDVI due to harvesting and the surrounding rangeland is greener than it was in April. The goal of this study is to determine if assimilating satellite land surface data can improve simulation of the complex spatial distribution of surface energy and water fluxes across this region. The PSU/NCAR NM5 V3 system is used in this study. The grid configuration consists of a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest over the area of interest. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint indicates that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for both state variables. In addition, comparison of model data with ARM/CART EBBR flux observations reveals that the assimilation technique adjusts the bowen ratio in a realistic fashion.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-10-01

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.

2014-12-01

The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover. J. Climate, 26, 6904-6914.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1

Simulation of a Driven Dense Granular Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizon, Chris; Shattuck, M. D.; Swift, J. B.; Swinney, Harry L.

1998-11-01

Event driven particle simulations quantitatively reproduce the experimental results on vibrated granular layers, including the formation of standing wave patterns(C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, J.B. Swift, W.D. McCormick, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80), pp. 57-60 (1998). and secondary instabilities(J.R. deBruyn, C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, D. Goldman, J.B. Swift, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81) (1998), to appear. . In these simulations the velocity distributions are nearly Gaussian when scaled with the local fluctuational kinetic energy (granular temperature); this suggests that inelastic dense gas kinetic theory is applicable. We perform simulations of a two-dimensional granular gas that is homogeneously driven with fluctuating forces. We find that the equation of state differs from that of an elastic dense gas and that this difference is due to a change in the distribution of relative velocities at collisions. Granular thermal conductivity and viscosity are measured by allowing the fluctuating forces to have large scale spatial gradients.

FAST SIMULATION OF SOLID TUMORS THERMAL ABLATION TREATMENTS WITH A 3D REACTION DIFFUSION MODEL *

PubMed Central

BERTACCINI, DANIELE; CALVETTI, DANIELA

2007-01-01

An efficient computational method for near real-time simulation of thermal ablation of tumors via radio frequencies is proposed. Model simulations of the temperature field in a 3D portion of tissue containing the tumoral mass for different patterns of source heating can be used to design the ablation procedure. The availability of a very efficient computational scheme makes it possible update the predicted outcome of the procedure in real time. In the algorithms proposed here a discretization in space of the governing equations is followed by an adaptive time integration based on implicit multistep formulas. A modification of the ode15s MATLAB function which uses Krylov space iterative methods for the solution of for the linear systems arising at each integration step makes it possible to perform the simulations on standard desktop for much finer grids than using the built-in ode15s. The proposed algorithm can be applied to a wide class of nonlinear parabolic differential equations. PMID:17173888

Building the evidence on simulation validity: comparison of anesthesiologists' communication patterns in real and simulated cases.

PubMed

Weller, Jennifer; Henderson, Robert; Webster, Craig S; Shulruf, Boaz; Torrie, Jane; Davies, Elaine; Henderson, Kaylene; Frampton, Chris; Merry, Alan F

2014-01-01

Effective teamwork is important for patient safety, and verbal communication underpins many dimensions of teamwork. The validity of the simulated environment would be supported if it elicited similar verbal communications to the real setting. The authors hypothesized that anesthesiologists would exhibit similar verbal communication patterns in routine operating room (OR) cases and routine simulated cases. The authors further hypothesized that anesthesiologists would exhibit different communication patterns in routine cases (real or simulated) and simulated cases involving a crisis. Key communications relevant to teamwork were coded from video recordings of anesthesiologists in the OR, routine simulation and crisis simulation and percentages were compared. The authors recorded comparable videos of 20 anesthesiologists in the two simulations, and 17 of these anesthesiologists in the OR, generating 400 coded events in the OR, 683 in the routine simulation, and 1,419 in the crisis simulation. The authors found no significant differences in communication patterns in the OR and the routine simulations. The authors did find significant differences in communication patterns between the crisis simulation and both the OR and the routine simulations. Participants rated team communication as realistic and considered their communications occurred with a similar frequency in the simulations as in comparable cases in the OR. The similarity of teamwork-related communications elicited from anesthesiologists in simulated cases and the real setting lends support for the ecological validity of the simulation environment and its value in teamwork training. Different communication patterns and frequencies under the challenge of a crisis support the use of simulation to assess crisis management skills.

Chandra Contaminant Migration Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swartz, Douglas A.; O'Dell, Steve L.

2014-01-01

High volatility cleans OBFs and low volatility produces a high build-up at OBF centers; only a narrow (factor of 2 or less) volatility range produces the observed spatial pattern. Simulations predict less accumulation above outer S-array CCDs; this may explain, in part, gratings/imaging C/MnL discrepancies. Simulations produce a change in center accumulation due solely to DH heater ON/OFF temperature change; but a 2nd contaminant and perhaps a change in source rate is also required. Emissivity E may depend on thickness; another model parameter. Additional physics, e.g., surface migration, is not warranted at this time. At t approx. 14 yrs, model produced 0.22 grams of contaminant, 0.085 grams remaining within ACIS cavity; 7 percent (6mg) on OBFs.

Directional Solidification and Convection in Small Diameter Crucibles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J.; Sung, P. K.; Tewari, S. N.; Poirier, D. R.; DeGroh, H. C., III

2003-01-01

Pb-2.2 wt% Sb alloy was directionally solidified in 1, 2, 3 and 7 mm diameter crucibles. Pb-Sb alloy presents a solutally unstable case. Under plane-front conditions, the resulting macrosegregation along the solidified length indicates that convection persists even in the 1 mm diameter crucible. Al-2 wt% Cu alloy was directionally solidified because this alloy was expected to be stable with respect to convection. Nevertheless, the resulting macrosegregation pattern and the microstructure in solidified examples indicated the presence of convection. Simulations performed for both alloys show that convection persists for crucibles as small as 0.6 mm of diameter. For the solutally stable alloy, Al-2 wt% Cu, the simulations indicate that the convection arises from a lateral temperature gradient.

Dynamic global model of oxide Czochralski process with weighing control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamedov, V. M.; Vasiliev, M. G.; Yuferev, V. S.

2011-03-01

A dynamic model of oxide Czochralski growth with weighing control has been developed for the first time. A time-dependent approach is used for the calculation of temperature fields in different parts of a crystallization set-up and convection patterns in a melt, while internal radiation in crystal is considered in a quasi-steady approximation. A special algorithm is developed for the calculation of displacement of a triple point and simulation of a crystal surface formation. To calculate variations in the heat generation, a model of weighing control with a commonly used PID regulator is applied. As an example, simulation of the growth process of gallium-gadolinium garnet (GGG) crystals starting from the stage of seeding is performed.

On the molecular origin of the cooperative coil-to-globule transition of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) in water† †Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Stereochemistry and initial conformation of PNIPAM 30-mer; pair distribution functions of PNIPAM methyl groups; average time of transitions of dihedral angles; distribution of methyl dihedral angles; temperature dependence of average number of hydration water molecules; correlation between hydrogen bonding of water molecules per repeating unit in the FHS and end to end distance and correlation between PNIPAM–water hydrogen bonding and end to end distance. Time evolution of PNIPAM with the first hydration shell: movie FHSpnipam.avi. See DOI: 10.1039/c8cp00537k

PubMed Central

Zaccarelli, E.

2018-01-01

By means of atomistic molecular dynamics simulations we investigate the behaviour of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), PNIPAM, in water at temperatures below and above the lower critical solution temperature (LCST), including the undercooled regime. The transition between water soluble and insoluble states at the LCST is described as a cooperative process involving an intramolecular coil-to-globule transition preceding the aggregation of chains and the polymer precipitation. In this work we investigate the molecular origin of such cooperativity and the evolution of the hydration pattern in the undercooled polymer solution. The solution behaviour of an atactic 30-mer at high dilution is studied in the temperature interval from 243 to 323 K with a favourable comparison to available experimental data. In the water soluble states of PNIPAM we detect a correlation between polymer segmental dynamics and diffusion motion of bound water, occurring with the same activation energy. Simulation results show that below the coil-to-globule transition temperature PNIPAM is surrounded by a network of hydrogen bonded water molecules and that the cooperativity arises from the structuring of water clusters in proximity to hydrophobic groups. Differently, the perturbation of the hydrogen bond pattern involving water and amide groups occurs above the transition temperature. Altogether these findings reveal that even above the LCST PNIPAM remains largely hydrated and that the coil-to-globule transition is related with a significant rearrangement of the solvent in the proximity of the surface of the polymer. The comparison between the hydrogen bonding of water in the surrounding of PNIPAM isopropyl groups and in the bulk displays a decreased structuring of solvent at the hydrophobic polymer–water interface across the transition temperature, as expected because of the topological extension along the chain of such interface. No evidence of an upper critical solution temperature behaviour, postulated in theoretical and thermodynamics studies of PNIPAM aqueous solution, is observed in the low temperature domain. PMID:29619464

Optimized Characterization of Thermoelectric Generators for Automotive Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatarinov, Dimitri; Wallig, Daniel; Bastian, Georg

2012-06-01

New developments in the field of thermoelectric materials bring the prospect of consumer devices for recovery of some of the waste heat from internal combustion engines closer to reality. Efficiency improvements are expected due to the development of high-temperature thermoelectric generators (TEG). In contrast to already established radioisotope thermoelectric generators, the temperature difference in automotive systems is not constant, and this imposes a set of specific requirements on the TEG system components. In particular, the behavior of the TEGs and interface materials used to link the heat flow from the heat source through the TEG to the heat sink must be examined. Due to the usage patterns of automobiles, the TEG will be subject to cyclic thermal loads, which leads to module degradation. Additionally, the automotive TEG will be exposed to an inhomogeneous temperature distribution, leading to inhomogeneous mechanical loads and reduced system efficiency. Therefore, a characterization rig is required to allow determination of the electrical, thermal, and mechanical properties of such high-temperature TEG systems. This paper describes a measurement setup using controlled adjustment of cold-side and warm-side temperatures as well as controlled feed-in of electrical power for evaluation of TEGs for application in vehicles with combustion engines. The temperature profile in the setup can be varied to simulate any vehicle usage pattern, such as the European standard driving cycle, allowing the power yield of the TEGs to be evaluated for the chosen cycle. The spatially resolved temperature distribution of a TEG system can be examined by thermal imaging. Hotspots or cracks on thermocouples of the TEGs and the thermal resistance of thermal interface materials can also be examined using this technology. The construction of the setup is briefly explained, followed by detailed discussion of the experimental results.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Forecasting decadal changes in sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching within a Caribbean coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Angang; Reidenbach, Matthew A.

2014-09-01

Elevated sea surface temperature (SST) caused by global warming is one of the major threats to coral reefs. While increased SST has been shown to negatively affect the health of coral reefs by increasing rates of coral bleaching, how changes to atmospheric heating impact SST distributions, modified by local flow environments, has been less understood. This study aimed to simulate future water flow patterns and water surface heating in response to increased air temperature within a coral reef system in Bocas del Toro, Panama, located within the Caribbean Sea. Water flow and SST were modeled using the Delft3D-FLOWcomputer simulation package. Locally measured physical parameters, including bathymetry, astronomic tidal forcing, and coral habitat distribution were input into the model and water flow, and SST was simulated over a four-month period under present day, as well as projected warming scenarios in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Changes in SST, and hence the thermal stress to corals, were quantified by degree heating weeks. Results showed that present-day reported bleaching sites were consistent with localized regions of continuous high SST. Regions with highest SST were located within shallow coastal sites adjacent to the mainland or within the interior of the bay, and characterized by low currents with high water retention times. Under projected increases in SSTs, shallow reef areas in low flow regions were found to be hot spots for future bleaching.

Puget Sound Dissolved Oxygen Modeling Study: Development of an Intermediate-Scale Hydrodynamic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Labiosa, Rochelle G.

2010-11-30

The Washington State Department of Ecology contracted with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to develop an intermediate-scale hydrodynamic and water quality model to study dissolved oxygen and nutrient dynamics in Puget Sound and to help define potential Puget Sound-wide nutrient management strategies and decisions. Specifically, the project is expected to help determine 1) if current and potential future nitrogen loadings from point and non-point sources are significantly impairing water quality at a large scale and 2) what level of nutrient reductions are necessary to reduce or dominate human impacts to dissolved oxygen levels in the sensitive areas. In this study, anmore » intermediate-scale hydrodynamic model of Puget Sound was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics of Puget Sound and the Northwest Straits for the year 2006. The model was constructed using the unstructured Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model. The overall model grid resolution within Puget Sound in its present configuration is about 880 m. The model was driven by tides, river inflows, and meteorological forcing (wind and net heat flux) and simulated tidal circulations, temperature, and salinity distributions in Puget Sound. The model was validated against observed data of water surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity at various stations within the study domain. Model validation indicated that the model simulates tidal elevations and currents in Puget Sound well and reproduces the general patterns of the temperature and salinity distributions.« less

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

Projections of rising heat stress over the western Maritime Continent from dynamically downscaled climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Kang, Suchul; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-06-01

This study assesses the future changes in heat stress in response to different emission scenarios over the western Maritime Continent. To better resolve the region-specific changes and to enhance the performance in simulating extreme events, the MIT Regional Climate Model with a 12-km horizontal resolution is used for the dynamical downscaling of three carefully selected CMIP5 global projections forced by two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax), which includes the effect of humidity, is examined to describe heat stress as regulated by future changes in temperature and humidity. An ensemble of projections reveals robust pattern in which a large increase in temperature is accompanied by a reduction in relative humidity but a significant increase in wet-bulb temperature. This increase in TWmax is relatively smaller over flat and coastal regions than that over mountainous region. However, the flat and coastal regions characterized by warm and humid present-day climate will be at risk even under modest increase in TWmax. The regional extent exposed to higher TWmax and the number of days on which TWmax exceeds its threshold value are projected to be much higher in RCP8.5 scenario than those in RCP4.5 scenario, thus highlighting the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the adverse impacts on human health and heat-related mortality.

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

Investigation of antenna pattern constraints for passive geosynchronous microwave imaging radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasiewski, A. J.; Skofronick, G. M.

1992-01-01

Progress by investigators at Georgia Tech in defining the requirements for large space antennas for passive microwave Earth imaging systems is reviewed. In order to determine antenna constraints (e.g., the aperture size, illumination taper, and gain uncertainty limits) necessary for the retrieval of geophysical parameters (e.g., rain rate) with adequate spatial resolution and accuracy, a numerical simulation of the passive microwave observation and retrieval process is being developed. Due to the small spatial scale of precipitation and the nonlinear relationships between precipitation parameters (e.g., rain rate, water density profile) and observed brightness temperatures, the retrieval of precipitation parameters are of primary interest in the simulation studies. Major components of the simulation are described as well as progress and plans for completion. The overall goal of providing quantitative assessments of the accuracy of candidate geosynchronous and low-Earth orbiting imaging systems will continue under a separate grant.

A model for simulating random atmospheres as a function of latitude, season, and time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, J. W.

1977-01-01

An empirical stochastic computer model was developed with the capability of generating random thermodynamic profiles of the atmosphere below an altitude of 99 km which are characteristic of any given season, latitude, and time of day. Samples of temperature, density, and pressure profiles generated by the model are statistically similar to measured profiles in a data base of over 6000 rocket and high-altitude atmospheric soundings; that is, means and standard deviations of modeled profiles and their vertical gradients are in close agreement with data. Model-generated samples can be used for Monte Carlo simulations of aircraft or spacecraft trajectories to predict or account for the effects on a vehicle's performance of atmospheric variability. Other potential uses for the model are in simulating pollutant dispersion patterns, variations in sound propagation, and other phenomena which are dependent on atmospheric properties, and in developing data-reduction software for satellite monitoring systems.

Theoretical and experimental investigation of 'grating' type photovoltaic cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loferski, J. J.; Crisman, E. E.; Armitage, W.; Chen, L. Y.

1974-01-01

The fabrication procedure and properties of 'grating' cells made by forming a fine grating pattern of aluminum alloyed into n-silicon wafers are described. The finest grating lines achieved in the cells described were 5 microns; the smallest spacing was about 15 microns. The best temperature for alloying was found to be about 600 C, a bit above the Si-Al eutectic temperature (576 C). The short-circuit current obtained from the best of these cells exposed to 100 mW/sq cm of (simulated air mass zero) illumination was at least equal to that obtained from conventional diffused cells, but their open-circuit voltage was lower. Their quantum yield was strongly blue-shifted; it was flat from 4000 to 8500 A.

Investigating the effect of invasion characteristics on onion thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) populations in onions with a temperature-driven process model.

PubMed

Mo, Jianhua; Stevens, Mark; Liu, De Li; Herron, Grant

2009-12-01

A temperature-driven process model was developed to describe the seasonal patterns of populations of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, in onions. The model used daily cohorts (individuals of the same developmental stage and daily age) as the population unit. Stage transitions were modeled as a logistic function of accumulated degree-days to account for variability in development rate among individuals. Daily survival was modeled as a logistic function of daily mean temperature. Parameters for development, survival, and fecundity were estimated from published data. A single invasion event was used to initiate the population process, starting at 1-100 d after onion emergence (DAE) for 10-100 d at the daily rate of 0.001-0.9 adults/plant/d. The model was validated against five observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations from two unsprayed sites in the Riverina, New South Wales, Australia, during 2003-2006. Performance of the model was measured by a fit index based on the proportion of variations in observed data explained by the model (R (2)) and the differences in total thrips-days between observed and predicted populations. Satisfactory matching between simulated and observed seasonal patterns was obtained within the ranges of invasion parameters tested. Model best-fit was obtained at invasion starting dates of 6-98 DAE with a daily invasion rate of 0.002-0.2 adults/plant/d and an invasion duration of 30-100 d. Under the best-fit invasion scenarios, the model closely reproduced the observed seasonal patterns, explaining 73-95% of variability in adult and larval densities during population increase periods. The results showed that small invasions of adult thrips followed by a gradual population build-up of thrips within onion crops were sufficient to bring about the observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations in onion. Implications of the model on timing of chemical controls are discussed.

Nanostructured Antireflective and Thermoisolative Cicada Wings.

PubMed

Morikawa, Junko; Ryu, Meguya; Seniutinas, Gediminas; Balčytis, Armandas; Maximova, Ksenia; Wang, Xuewen; Zamengo, Massimiliano; Ivanova, Elena P; Juodkazis, Saulius

2016-05-10

Inter-related mechanical, thermal, and optical macroscopic properties of biomaterials are defined at the nanoscale by their constituent structures and patterns, which underpin complex functions of an entire bio-object. Here, the temperature diffusivity of a cicada (Cyclochila australasiae) wing with nanotextured surfaces was measured using two complementary techniques: a direct contact method and IR imaging. The 4-6-μm-thick wing section was shown to have a thermal diffusivity of α⊥ = (0.71 ± 0.15) × 10(-7) m(2)/s, as measured by the contact temperature wave method along the thickness of the wing; it corresponds to the inherent thermal property of the cuticle. The in-plane thermal diffusivity value of the wing was determined by IR imaging and was considerably larger at α∥ = (3.6 ± 0.2) × 10(-7) m(2)/s as a result of heat transport via air. Optical properties of wings covered with nanospikes were numerically simulated using an accurate 3D model of the wing pattern and showed that light is concentrated between spikes where intensity is enhanced by up to 3- to 4-fold. The closely packed pattern of nanospikes reduces the reflectivity of the wing throughout the visible light spectrum and over a wide range of incident angles, hence acting as an antireflection coating.

Forest gradient response in Sierran landscapes: the physical template

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Dean L.; Miller, Carol; Halpin, Patrick N.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2000-01-01

Vegetation pattern on landscapes is the manifestation of physical gradients, biotic response to these gradients, and disturbances. Here we focus on the physical template as it governs the distribution of mixed-conifer forests in California's Sierra Nevada. We extended a forest simulation model to examine montane environmental gradients, emphasizing factors affecting the water balance in these summer-dry landscapes. The model simulates the soil moisture regime in terms of the interaction of water supply and demand: supply depends on precipitation and water storage, while evapotranspirational demand varies with solar radiation and temperature. The forest cover itself can affect the water balance via canopy interception and evapotranspiration. We simulated Sierran forests as slope facets, defined as gridded stands of homogeneous topographic exposure, and verified simulated gradient response against sample quadrats distributed across Sequoia National Park. We then performed a modified sensitivity analysis of abiotic factors governing the physical gradient. Importantly, the model's sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and soil depth varies considerably over the physical template, particularly relative to elevation. The physical drivers of the water balance have characteristic spatial scales that differ by orders of magnitude. Across large spatial extents, temperature and precipitation as defined by elevation primarily govern the location of the mixed conifer zone. If the analysis is constrained to elevations within the mixed-conifer zone, local topography comes into play as it influences drainage. Soil depth varies considerably at all measured scales, and is especially dominant at fine (within-stand) scales. Physical site variables can influence soil moisture deficit either by affecting water supply or water demand; these effects have qualitatively different implications for forest response. These results have clear implications about purely inferential approaches to gradient analysis, and bear strongly on our ability to use correlative approaches in assessing the potential responses of montane forests to anthropogenic climatic change.

A Hybrid Demand Response Simulator Version 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2012-05-02

A hybrid demand response simulator is developed to test different control algorithms for centralized and distributed demand response (DR) programs in a small distribution power grid. The HDRS is designed to model a wide variety of DR services such as peak having, load shifting, arbitrage, spinning reserves, load following, regulation, emergency load shedding, etc. The HDRS does not model the dynamic behaviors of the loads, rather, it simulates the load scheduling and dispatch process. The load models include TCAs (water heaters, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, etc) and non-TCAs (lighting, washer, dishwasher, etc.) The ambient temperature changes, thermal resistance, capacitance, andmore » the unit control logics can be modeled for TCA loads. The use patterns of the non-TCA can be modeled by probability of use and probabilistic durations. Some of the communication network characteristics, such as delays and errors, can also be modeled. Most importantly, because the simulator is modular and greatly simplified the thermal models for TCA loads, it is very easy and fast to be used to test and validate different control algorithms in a simulated environment.« less

Mask CD relationship to temperature at the time backscatter is received

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zable, Harold; Kronmiller, Tom; Pearman, Ryan; Guthrie, Bill; Shirali, Nagesh; Masuda, Yukihiro; Kamikubo, Takashi; Nakayamada, Noriaki; Fujimura, Aki

2017-07-01

Mask writers need to be able to write sub-50nm features accurately. Nano-imprint lithography (NIL) masters need to create sub-20nm line and space (L:S) patterns reliably. Increasingly slower resists are deployed, but mask write times need to remain reasonable. The leading edge EBM-9500 offers 1200A/cm2 current density to shoot variable shaped beam (VSB) to write the masks. Last year, thermal effect correction (TEC) was introduced by NuFlare in the EBM-95001. It is a GPU-accelerated inline correction for the effect that the temperature of the resist has on CD. For example, a 100nm CD may print at 102nm where that area was at a comparably high temperature at the time of the shot. Since thermal effect is a temporal effect, the simulated temperature of the surface of the mask is dynamically updated for the effect of each shot in order to accurately predict the cumulative effect that is the temperature at the location of the shot at the time of the shot and therefore its impact on CD. The shot dose is changed to reverse the effects of the temperature change. This paper for the first time reveals an enhancement to this thermal model and a simulator for it. It turns out that the temperature at the time each location receives backscatter from other shots also make a difference to the CD. The effect is secondary, but still measurable for some resists and substrates. Results of a test-chip study will be presented. The computation required for the backscatter effect is substantial. It has been demonstrated that this calculation can be performed fast enough to be inline with the EBM-9500 with a reasonable-sized computing platform. Run-time results and the computing architecture will be presented.

Experimental and numerical investigation of dual phase steels formability during laser-assisted hole-flanging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motaman, S. A. H.; Komerla, K.; Storms, T.; Prahl, U.; Brecher, C.; Bleck, W.

2018-05-01

Today, in the automotive industry dual phase (DP) steels are extensively used in the production of various structural parts due to their superior mechanical properties. Hole-flanging of such steels due to simultaneous bending and stretching of sheet metal, is complex and associated with some issues such as strain and strain rate localization, development of micro-cracks, inhomogeneous sheet thinning, etc. In this study an attempt is made to improve the formability of DP sheets, by localized Laser heating. The Laser beam was oscillated in circular pattern rapidly around the pre-hole, blanked prior to the flanging process. In order to investigate formability of DP steel (DP1000), several uniaxial tensile tests were conducted from quasi to intermediate strain rates at different temperatures in warm regime. Additionally, experimentally acquired temperature and strain rate-dependent flow curves were fed into thermomechanical finite element (FE) simulation of the hole-flanging process using the commercial FE software ABAQUS/Explicit. Several FE simulations were performed in order to evaluate the effect of blank's initial temperature and punch speed on deformation localization, stress evolution and temperature distribution in DP1000 sheets during warm hole-flanging process. The experimental and numerical analyses revealed that prescribing a distribution of initial temperature between 300 to 400 °C to the blank and setting a punch speed that accommodates strain rate range of 1 to 5 s-1 in the blank, provides the highest strain hardening capacity in the considered rate and temperature regimes for DP1000. This is in fact largely due to the dynamic strain aging (DSA) effect which occurs due to pinning of mobile dislocations by interstitial solute atoms, particularly at elevated temperatures.

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

Transient variation of martian ground-atmosphere thermal boundary layer structure.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pallmann, A. J.; Dannevik, W. P.

1972-01-01

Results of a numerical simulation of the diurnal redistribution of temperature by radiative and molecular-conductive processes in the Martian soil-atmosphere system. An attempt is made to assess the importance of atmospheric molecular conduction near the surface and to estimate the characteristic depth of the diurnal temperature wave. The computational results are found to indicate a dual structure in the diurnal temperature wave propagation pattern, with a diffusive-type wave in the lowest 150 m superimposed on a radiatively induced disturbance with a characteristic scale of 1.8 km. Atmospheric molecular thermal conduction typically accounts for about 15% of the total heating/cooling in the lowest 25 m. Thermal conduction in both the soil and atmosphere appears to be an important factor in the thermal coupling of these subsystems. A free-convection regime in the conduction layer is predicted by the model for about five hours of the Martian day.

Glassy behavior and dynamic tweed in defect-free multiferroics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofei; Salje, Ekhard K. H.; Sun, Jun; Ding, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Multiferroics often show significant elastic fluctuations even when the transition is strongly stepwise. Molecular dynamics simulations of a generic toy model show the appearance of tweed nanostructures (cross hatched patterns) in the paraelastic phase just above the transition point. This tweed lowers the elastic modulus C12 when approaching the transition temperature. The spatial and temporal correlations of the tweed structure follow the Vogel-Fulcher relationship, and the Vogel-Fulcher temperature is slightly below the transition temperature Ttrans, preventing this glassy state to freeze completely. Spatial correlations of shear strain show that the size of tweed patches reaches about eight lattice spacings near Ttrans. Cross- and rod-shaped diffuse scattering, similar to that in relaxors, emerges around {hh0}* and {h00}* Bragg reflections. The viscosity of the sample increases dramatically at the transition point with a significant precursor increase in the tweed regime.

Fiber Optic Thermal Detection of Composite Delaminations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Meng-Chou; Winfree, William P.

2011-01-01

A recently developed technique is presented for thermographic detection of delaminations in composites by performing temperature measurements with fiber optic Bragg gratings. A single optical fiber with multiple Bragg gratings employed as surface temperature sensors was bonded to the surface of a composite with subsurface defects. The investigated structure was a 10-ply composite specimen with prefabricated delaminations of various sizes and depths. Both during and following the application of a thermal heat flux to the surface, the individual Bragg grating sensors measured the temporal and spatial temperature variations. The data obtained from grating sensors were analyzed with thermal modeling techniques of conventional thermography to reveal particular characteristics of the interested areas. Results were compared and found to be consistent with the calculations using numerical simulation techniques. Also discussed are methods including various heating sources and patterns, and their limitations for performing in-situ structural health monitoring.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Trade-off between competition and facilitation defines gap colonization in mountains

PubMed Central

Lembrechts, Jonas J.; Milbau, Ann; Nijs, Ivan

2015-01-01

Recent experimental observations show that gap colonization in small-stature (e.g. grassland and dwarf shrubs) vegetation strongly depends on the abiotic conditions within them. At the same time, within-gap variation in biotic interactions such as competition and facilitation, caused by distance to the gap edge, would affect colonizer performance, but a theoretical framework to explore such patterns is missing. Here, we model how competition, facilitation and environmental conditions together determine the small-scale patterns of gap colonization along a cold gradient in mountains, by simulating colonizer survival in gaps of various sizes. Our model adds another dimension to the known effects of biotic interactions along a stress gradient by focussing on the trade-off between competition and facilitation in the within-gap environment. We show that this trade-off defines a peak in colonizer survival at a specific distance from the gap edge, which progressively shifts closer to the edge as the environment gets colder, ultimately leaving a large fraction of gaps unsuitable for colonization in facilitation-dominated systems. This is reinforced when vegetation size and temperature amelioration are manipulated simultaneously with temperature in order to simulate an elevational gradient more realistically. Interestingly, all other conditions being equal, the magnitude of the realized survival peak was always lower in large than in small gaps, making large gaps harder to colonize. The model is relevant to predict effects of non-native plant invasions and climate warming on colonization processes in mountains. PMID:26558706

Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Brown, Robert A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o,more » La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.« less

Classification of Thermal Patterns at Karst Springs and Cave Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luhmann, A.J.; Covington, M.D.; Peters, Albert J.; Alexander, S.C.; Anger, C.T.; Green, J.A.; Runkel, Anthony C.; Alexander, E.C.

2011-01-01

Thermal patterns of karst springs and cave streams provide potentially useful information concerning aquifer geometry and recharge. Temperature monitoring at 25 springs and cave streams in southeastern Minnesota has shown four distinct thermal patterns. These patterns can be divided into two types: those produced by flow paths with ineffective heat exchange, such as conduits, and those produced by flow paths with effective heat exchange, such as small fractures and pore space. Thermally ineffective patterns result when water flows through the aquifer before it can equilibrate to the rock temperature. Thermally ineffective patterns can be either event-scale, as produced by rainfall or snowmelt events, or seasonal scale, as produced by input from a perennial surface stream. Thermally effective patterns result when water equilibrates to rock temperature, and the patterns displayed depend on whether the aquifer temperature is changing over time. Shallow aquifers with seasonally varying temperatures display a phase-shifted seasonal signal, whereas deeper aquifers with constant temperatures display a stable temperature pattern. An individual aquifer may display more than one of these patterns. Since karst aquifers typically contain both thermally effective and ineffective routes, we argue that the thermal response is strongly influenced by recharge mode. ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Simulation and spatiotemporal pattern of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Central Asia using RegCM.

PubMed

Meng, Xianyong; Long, Aihua; Wu, Yiping; Yin, Gang; Wang, Hao; Ji, Xiaonan

2018-02-26

Central Asia is a region that has a large land mass, yet meteorological stations in this area are relatively scarce. To address this data issues, in this study, we selected two reanalysis datasets (the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR) and downscaled them to 40 × 40 km using RegCM. Then three gridded datasets (the CRU, APHRO, and WM) that were extrapolated from the observations of Central Asian meteorological stations to evaluate the performance of RegCM and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and air temperature. We found that since the 1960s, the air temperature in Xinjiang shows an increasing trend and the distribution of precipitation in the Tianshan area is quite complex. The precipitation is increasing in the south of the Tianshan Mountains (Southern Xinjiang, SX) and decreasing in the mountainous areas. The CRU and WM data indicate that precipitation in the north of the Tianshan Mountains (Northern Xinjiang, NX) is increasing, while the APHRO data show an opposite trend. The downscaled results from RegCM are generally consistent with the extrapolated gridded datasets in terms of the spatiotemporal patterns. We believe that our results can provide useful information in developing a regional climate model in Central Asia where meteorological stations are scarce.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

Influence of Aerosol Heating on the Stratospheric Transport of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.; Stolarski, Richard S.

2011-01-01

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (15.1 deg. N, 120.3 Deg. E) in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. The large perturbation of the background aerosol caused an increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere of 2-3 K. Even though stratospheric winds climatological]y tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 global climate model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem, to investigate the influence of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the stratospheric transport pattern. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud. In our simulations the local heating perturbation caused by the sudden injection of volcanic aerosol changes the pattern of the stratospheric winds causing more intrusion of air from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, we perform simulations changing the injection height of the cloud, and study the transport of the plume resulting from the different scenarios. Comparisons of model results with SAGE II and AVHRR satellite observations will be shown.

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE PAGES

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.; ...

2016-07-13

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

Numerical simulation on the southern flood and northern drought in summer 2014 over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lianlian; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Huijun

2017-12-01

In summer 2014, Eastern China suffered a typical "southern flood and northern drought" anomalous climate. Observational analyses indicated that the anomalous vertical motion, East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) played important roles in the formation of such precipitation anomaly. Furthermore, using the climate model (IAP-AGCM-4.1) perturbed by simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in global scale and four different regions (North Pacific, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, and Equatorial Pacific), this study investigated the potential contribution of ocean to such "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China in summer 2014. The simulations forced by global-scale SSTAs or North Pacific SSTAs displayed the most similarity to the observed "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China. It was revealed that the global-scale and North Pacific SSTAs influenced the rainfall over Eastern China via modulating the EASM. The related simulations successfully reproduced the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. The experiment driven by Indian Ocean SSTAs could also reproduce the similar precipitation anomaly pattern and suggested that the Indian Ocean exerted pronounced influence on the North Pacific Subtropical High. Additionally, the simulations forced by SSTAs in the North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific successfully reproduced the northern drought but failed to capture the southern flood. The simulations suggested that precipitation anomaly over Eastern China in summer 2014 was a comprehensive effect of global SSTAs and the dominant contribution to the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern came from the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

East Asia winter climate changes under RCP scenarios in terms of East Asian winter monsoon indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hong, J. Y.

2016-12-01

The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 5°C under RCP4.5 and from 3°C to 7°C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal that the interannual variability of the indices will be maintained with intensity similar to that of the present. AcknowledgmentsThis work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ012293)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Societal resilience to hydroclimatic change in the Roman World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; Dekker, Stefan

2016-04-01

The Romans were masters of water resource management. They employed sophisticated irrigation techniques alongside a highly integrated food redistribution system that provided stable food supplies under the variable hydroclimatic regime within the Roman World. However, a number of paleoclimate studies have demonstrated hydroclimatic changes during the Roman Period that exceeded the amplitude and persistence of normal climate variability. In particular, there was a shift from warmer and more stable hydroclimatic conditions in the Roman Warm Period (c.250 BC - 250 AD) to cooler and more variable conditions in Late Roman Period (after c.250 AD). In this study we use a socio-hydrological model of the Roman world to explore the impact of hydroclimatic changes between the Roman Warm Period and Late Roman Period on the Roman food production and redistribution system. We calculate crop yields based on temperature and water resource availability using PC Raster Global Water Balance model (PCR-GLOBWB). PCR-GLOBWB is forced with reanalysis climate fields reflecting reconstructions of Roman Warm Period to the Late Roman climate patterns. Cropland areas and settlement patterns are derived from a database of 14,700 Roman settlement sites and crop suitability maps. We simulate food redistribution using a multi-agent food redistribution network with link weights based on Orbis: The Stanford Geospatial Network of the Roman World. Our analysis indicates a reduction in crop yields during the Late Roman Period compared with the Roman Warm Period owing to cooler temperatures. In addition, our simulations indicate that increased hydroclimatic variability decreased the stability of yields in the Late Roman period. Crop yields in the Western Empire are simulated to have been impacted most by the change in climate owing to cooler average temperatures and greater hydroclimatic variability compared with the Eastern part of the Empire. The food redistribution network was essential to buffer against lower and less stable yields in the Late Roman Period. However, the Late Roman Period coincided with a breakdown in the food redistribution network, making the Western Roman Empire particularly vulnerable to changing climate conditions. Our analysis demonstrates a number of important processes that have general implications for water resource management in food production and redistribution systems.

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-01-01

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-09-23

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

2018-03-01

This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

Establishment and analysis of High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of water-energy cycle over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xiaohang; Liao, Xiaohan; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

2015-04-01

For better prediction and understanding of water-energy exchange process and land-atmospheric interaction, the in-situ observed meteorological data which were acquired from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the monthly Green Vegetation Coverage (GVF) data, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (EOS-MODIS), Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) system were also integrated in the WRF model over China. Further, the High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of water-energy cycle over China (HRADC) was produced by WRF model. This dataset include 25 km horizontal resolution near surface meteorological data such as air temperature, humidity, ground temperature, and pressure at 19 levels, soil temperature and soil moisture at 4 levels, green vegetation coverage, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and ground heat flux for 3 hours. In this study, we 1) briefly introduce the cycling 3D-Var assimilation method; 2) Compare results of meteorological elements such as 2 m temperature, precipitation and ground temperature generated by the HRADC with the gridded observation data from CMA, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) output data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It is found that the results of 2 m temperature were improved compared with the control simulation and has effectively reproduced the observed patterns, and the simulated results of ground temperature, 0-10 cm soil temperature and specific humidity were as much closer to GLDAS outputs. Root mean square errors are reduced in assimilation run than control run, and the assimilation run of ground temperature, 0-10 cm soil temperature, radiation and surface fluxes were agreed well with the GLDAS outputs over China. The HRADC could be used in further research on the long period climatic effects and characteristics of water-energy cycle over China.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Visualizing a possible atmospheric teleconnection associated with UK floods in autumn 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Bensema, K.; Stone, D.; Wehner, M. F.; Bethel, W.; Joy, K.

2012-12-01

Severe floods occurred across England and Wales during the record-wet autumn of the year 2000. Recently Pall et al. (2011) demonstrated that the risk of such floods occurring at that time substantially increased as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and that the synoptic weather system associated with the floods was a common but anomalously strong 'Scandinavia' atmospheric circulation pattern (a Rossby-wave-like train of tropospheric anomalies in geopotential height, extending from the subtropical Atlantic across Eurasia, with a cyclone over the UK and a strong anticyclone over Scandinavia). Blackburn and Hoskins (2001) suggest that this pattern was itself catalyzed by an anomalous upper-tropospheric flow of air: originating with an ascent of air due to convection over warm sea surface temperatures in the western Tropical Pacific, and ending in a descent of air over the Amazon in the proposed source region of the Scandinavia pattern. However, evidence for this so-called 'teleconnection' is not entirely clear in the idealised climate models they used. Here we use visualization techniques to search for this teleconnection in the simulations generated with the more comprehensive seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model of Pall et al. (2011) -- by identifying anomalous streamflow patterns and using the UV-CDAT software developed at Berkeley Lab to do so. Furthermore, since several thousand simulations were generated (in order to capture the rare flood event), totaling hundreds of GB in size, we use paralleisation techniques to perform this search efficiently.

Identification of a deleterious phase in photocatalyst based on Cd1 - xZnxS/Zn(OH)2 by simulated XRD patterns.

PubMed

Cherepanova, Svetlana; Markovskaya, Dina; Kozlova, Ekaterina

2017-06-01

The X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern of a deleterious phase in the photocatalyst based on Cd 1 - x Zn x S/Zn(OH) 2 contains two relatively intense asymmetric peaks with d-spacings of 2.72 and 1.56 Å. Very small diffraction peaks with interplanar distances of (d) ≃ 8.01, 5.40, 4.09, 3.15, 2.49 and 1.35 Å are characteristic of this phase but not always observed. To identify this phase, the XRD patterns for sheet-like hydroxide β-Zn(OH) 2 and sheet-like hydrozincite Zn 5 (CO 3 ) 2 (OH) 6 as well as for turbostratic hydrozincite were simulated. It is shown that the XRD pattern calculated on the basis of the last model gives the best correspondence with experimental data. Distances between layers in the turbostratically disordered hydrozincite fluctuate around d ≃ 8.01 Å. This average layer-to-layer distance is significantly higher than the interlayer distance 6.77 Å in the ordered Zn 5 (CO 3 ) 2 (OH) 6 probably due to a deficiency of CO 3 2- anions, excess OH - and the presence of water molecules in the interlayers. It is shown by variable-temperature XRD and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) that the nanocrystalline turbostratic nonstoichiometric hydrozincite-like phase is quite thermostable. It decomposes into ZnO in air above 473 K.

Performance analysis of air conditioning system and airflow simulation in an operating theater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhamid, Muhammad Idrus; Budihardjo, Rahmat

2018-02-01

The importance of maintaining performance of a hospital operating theater is to establish an adequate circulation of clean air within the room. The parameter of air distribution in a space should be based on Air Changes per Hour (ACH) to maintain a positive room pressure. The dispersion of airborne particles in the operating theater was governed by regulating the air distribution so that the operating theater meets clean room standards ie ISO 14664 and ASHRAE 170. Here, we introduced several input parameters in a simulation environment to observe the pressure distribution in the room. Input parameters were air temperature, air velocity and volumetric flow rate entering and leaving room for existing and designed condition. In the existing operating theatre, several observations were found. It was found that the outlet air velocity at the HEPA filter above the operating table was too high thus causing a turbulent airflow pattern. Moreover, the setting temperature at 19°C was found to be too low. The supply of air into the room was observed at lower than 20 ACH which is under the standard requirement. Our simulation using FloVent 8.2™ program showed that not only airflow turbulence could be reduced but also the amount of particle contamination could also be minimized.

WRF simulation over complex terrain during a southern California wildfire event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Zhong, S.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Liu, S.

2012-03-01

In October 2007, the largest wildfire-related evacuation in California's history occurred as severe wildfires broke out across southern California. Smoke from these wildfires contributed to elevated pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere, affecting air quality in a vast region of the western United States. High-resolution numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to understand the atmospheric conditions during the wildfire episode and how the complex circulation patterns might affect smoke transport and dispersion. The simulated meteorological fields were validated using surface and upper air observations in California and Nevada. To distinguish the performance of the WRF in different geographic regions, the surface stations were grouped into coastal sites, valley and basin sites, and mountain sites, and the results for the three categories were analyzed and intercompared. For temperature and moisture, the mountain category has the best agreement with the observations, while the coastal category was the worst. For wind, the model performance for the three categories was very similar. The flow patterns over complex terrain were also analyzed under different synoptic conditions and the possible impact of the terrain on smoke and pollutant pathways is analyzed by employing a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model. When high mountains prevent the smoke from moving inland, the mountain passes act as active pathways for smoke transport; meanwhile, chimney effect helps inject the pollutants to higher levels, where they are transported regionally. The results highlight the role of complex topography in the assessment of the possible smoke transport patterns in the region.

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Key factors controlling microbial community response after a fire: importance of severity and recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombao, Alba; Barreiro, Ana; Martín, Ángela; Díaz-Raviña, Montserrat

2015-04-01

Microorganisms play an important role in forest ecosystems, especially after fire when vegetation is destroyed and soil is bared. Fire severity and recurrence might be one of main factors controlling the microbial response after a wildfire but information about this topic is scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of fire regimen (recurrence and severity) on soil microbial community structure by means of the analysis of phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA). The study was performed with unburned and burned samples collected from the top layer of a soil affected by a high severity fire (Laza, NW Spain) heated under laboratory conditions at different temperatures (50°C, 75°C, 100°C, 125°C, 150°C, 175°C, 200°C, 300°C) to simulate different fire intensities; the process was repeated after further soil recovery (1 month incubation) to simulate fire recurrence. The soil temperature was measured with thermocouples and used to calculate the degree-hours as estimation of the amount of heat supplied to the samples (fire severity). The PLFA analysis was used to estimate total biomass and the biomass of specific groups (bacteria, fungi, gram-positive bacteria and gram-negative bacteria) as well as microbial community structure (PLFA pattern) and PLFA data were analyzed by means of principal component analysis (PCA) in order to identify main factors determining microbial community structure. The results of PCA, performed with the whole PLFA data set, showed that first component explained 35% of variation and clearly allow us to differentiate unburned samples from the corresponding burned samples, while the second component, explaining 16% of variation, separated samples according the heating temperature. A marked impact of fire regimen on soil microorganisms was detected; the microbial community response varied depending on previous history of soil heating and the magnitude of changes in the PLFA pattern was related to the amount of heat supplied to the samples. Thus, wildfire was the main factor determining the microbial community structure followed, in less extent, by fire severity. The total biomass and the biomass of specifics microbial groups decreased notably as consequence of wildfire and minor changes were detected due to soil heating under laboratory conditions. The results clearly showed the usefulness of PLFA pattern combined with PCA to study the relationships between fire regimen (recurrence and severity) and associated direct and indirect changes in soil microorganisms. The data also indicated that degree-hours methodology rather than temperature is adequate for evaluating the impact of soil heating on microbial communities. Keywords: wildfire, heating temperature, degree-hours, PLFA pattern, microbial biomass Acknowledgements. This study was supported by the Ministerio Español de Economía y Competitividad (AGL2012-39688-C02-01). A Lombao is recipient of FPU grant from Ministerio Español de Educación.

The application of silicon sol-gel technology to forensic blood substitute development: Mimicking aspects of whole human blood rheology.

PubMed

Stotesbury, Theresa; Illes, Mike; Wilson, Paul; Vreugdenhil, Andrew J

2017-01-01

Solution-gelation chemistry has promising applications in forensic synthetic blood substitute development. This research offers a silicon-based sol-gel approach to creating stable materials that share similar rheological properties to that of whole human blood samples. Room temperature, high water content, silicon sol-gels were created using the organosilane precursors 3-glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane and tetraethylorthosilicate along with various concentrations of filler and pigment. Shear-thinning non-Newtonian properties were observed within most formulations of the presented materials. The effects of colloidal concentration, temperature, age and filler addition on the viscosity of the sol-gels were investigated. SEM-EDS analysis was used to identify the behavior of the fillers within the film and support their inclusion for basic bloodstain pattern simulation. A final proposed candidate sol-gel was assessed using a previously reported passive drip simulation test on a hard, dry surface and passed. This works represents encouraging development in providing safe material alternatives to using whole human blood for forensic training and research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges in Radiofrequency Pasteurization of Shell Eggs: Coagulation Rings.

PubMed

Lau, Soon Kiat; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan; Jones, David; Negahban, Mehrdad; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan

2016-10-01

A total of 50 different configurations of simple radiofrequency (RF) heating at 27.12 MHz of a shell egg were simulated using a finite element model with the purpose of pasteurizing the egg. Temperature-dependent thermal and dielectric properties of the yolk, albumen, and shell were measured, fitted, and introduced into the model. A regression equation that relates the top electrode voltage to the gap between the electrodes and vertical position of the egg was developed. Simulation and experimental results had good agreement in terms of temperature deviation (root mean squared error ranged from 0.35 °C to 0.48 °C) and both results demonstrated the development of a "coagulation ring" around the air cell. The focused heating near the air cell of the egg prevented pasteurization of the egg due to its impact on quality (coagulation). Analysis of the electric field patterns offered a perspective on how nonuniform RF heating could occur in heterogeneous food products. The results can be used to guide development of RF heating for heterogeneous food products and further development of RF pasteurization of eggs. © 2016 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Simulating Energy, Water and Carbon Fluxes at the Shortgrass Steppe Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.; Morgan, J. A.; Burke, I. C.

2005-12-01

Coupled atmospheric-biospheric models are a particularly valuable tool for studying the potential effects of land-use and land-cover changes on the near-surface atmosphere since the atmosphere and biosphere are allowed to dynamically interact through the surface and canopy energy balance. GEMRAMS is a coupled atmospheric-biospheric model comprised of an atmospheric model, RAMS, and an ecophysiological process-based model, GEMTM. In the first part of this study, the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) scheme, LEAF2, from RAMS, coupled with GEMTM, are used to simulate energy, water and carbon fluxes over different cropping systems (winter wheat and irrigated corn) and over a mixed C3/C4 shortgrass prairie located at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range near Nunn, Colorado, the LTER Shortgrass Steppe site. The new SVAT scheme, GEMLEAF, is forced with air temperature and humidity, wind speed and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). Calculated canopy temperature and relative humidity, soil moisture and temperature and PAR are used to compute sunlit/shaded leaf photosynthesis (for C3 and C4 plant types) and respiration. Photosynthate is allocated to leaves, shoots, roots and reproductive organs with variable partition coefficients, which are functions of soil water conditions. As water stress increases, the fraction of photosynthate allocated to root growth increases. Leaf area index (LAI) is estimated from daily leaf biomass growth, using the vegetation-prescribed specific leaf area. Canopy conductance, computed and based on photosynthesis and relative humidity, is used to calculate latent heat flux. Simulated energy and CO2 fluxes are compared to observations collected using Bowen ratio flux towers during two growing seasons. Seasonality of the fluxes reflecting different plant phenologies agrees well with the observed patterns. In the second part of this study, simulations for two clear days are performed with GEMRAMS over a model domain centered at the SGS site. Simulated spatial differences in the energy fluxes can be associated with the highly heterogeneous landscape in this area.

Net primary productivity of China's terrestrial ecosystems from a process model driven by remote sensing.

PubMed

Feng, X; Liu, G; Chen, J M; Chen, M; Liu, J; Ju, W M; Sun, R; Zhou, W

2007-11-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle is one of the foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study, China's terrestrial NPP was simulated using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), a carbon-water coupled process model based on remote sensing inputs. For these purposes, a national-wide database (including leaf area index, land cover, meteorology, vegetation and soil) at a 1 km resolution and a validation database were established. Using these databases and BEPS, daily maps of NPP for the entire China's landmass in 2001 were produced, and gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (RA) were estimated. Using the simulated results, we explore temporal-spatial patterns of China's terrestrial NPP and the mechanisms of its responses to various environmental factors. The total NPP and mean NPP of China's landmass were 2.235 GtC and 235.2 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively; the total GPP and mean GPP were 4.418 GtC and 465 gCm(-2)yr(-1); and the total RA and mean RA were 2.227 GtC and 234 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively. On average, NPP was 50.6% of GPP. In addition, statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted, and spatiotemporal patterns of NPP were investigated. The response of NPP to changes in some key factors such as LAI, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, VPD and AWC are evaluated and discussed.

Using Temperature as a Tracer to Study Fluid Flow Patterns On and Offshore Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, W. C.

2017-12-01

Fluid flows are a dynamic system in the crust that affect crustal deformation and formation of natural resources. It is difficult to study fluid flow velocity instrumentally, but temperature data offers a quantitative tool that can be used as a tracer to study crustal hydrogeology. Here we present numerical techniques we have applied to study the fluid migration velocity along conduits including faults in on and offshore settings. Offshore SW Taiwan, we use a bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) from seismic profiles to study the temperature field at several hundred meters subbottom depth. The BSR is interpreted as the base of a gas hydrate stability zone under the seabed. Gas hydrates are solid-state water with gas molecules enclosed, which can be found where the temperature, pressure, and salinity conditions allow hydrates to be stable. Using phase diagrams and hydro pressure information we can derive the temperature at the BSR. BSRs are widespread in the study area, providing very dense temperature field information which shows upward bending of the BSR near faults. We have quantitatively estimated the 1D and 2D fluid flow patterns required to fit the BSR-based temperature field. This shows that fault zones can act as conduits with high permeability parallel to the fault planes. On the other hand, fault zones can also act as barriers to fluid flow, as demonstrated in our onland temperature data. We have collected temperature profiles at several bore holes onland that are very close together. The preliminary results show that the fault zones separate the ground water systems, causing very different geothermal gradients. Our results show that the physical properties of fault zones can be anisotropic, as demonstrated in previous work. Future work includes estimating the regional water expulsion budget offshore SW Taiwan, in particular for several gas hydrate sites.

Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period, which weakened northward heat transport by the ocean. In addition, the high concentration of atmospheric aerosol during the early Holocene may also have partly contribution to the cool summer temperature by weakening solar insolation.

The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry-climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkop, Sabine; Dameris, Martin; Jöckel, Patrick; Garny, Hella; Lossow, Stefan; Stiller, Gabriele

2016-07-01

This study investigates the abrupt and severe water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 (the "millennium water vapour drop") and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions by means of various simulations with the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry Model). The model simulations differ with respect to the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and whether nudging is applied or not. The CCM EMAC is able to most closely reproduce the signature and pattern of the water vapour drop in agreement with those derived from satellite observations if the model is nudged. Model results confirm that this extraordinary water vapour decline is particularly obvious in the tropical lower stratosphere and is related to a large decrease in cold point temperature. The drop signal propagates under dilution to the higher stratosphere and to the poles via the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). We found that the driving forces for this significant decline in water vapour mixing ratios are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to a coincidence with a preceding strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation event (1997/1998) followed by a strong La Niña event (1999/2000) and supported by the change of the westerly to the easterly phase of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in 2000. Correct (observed) SSTs are important for triggering the strong decline in water vapour. There are indications that, at least partly, SSTs contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006. For this period, the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere (overall atmospheric large-scale wind and temperature distribution) is important as well, as it causes the observed persistent low cold point temperatures. These are induced by a period of increased upwelling, which, however, has no corresponding pronounced signature in SSTs anomalies in the tropics. Our free-running simulations do not capture the drop as observed, because a) the cold point temperature has a low bias and thus the water vapour variability is reduced and b) because they do not simulate the appropriate dynamical state. Large negative water vapour declines are also found in other years and seem to be a feature which can be found after strong combined El Niño/La Niña events if the QBO west phase during La Niña changes to the east phase.

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

1994-05-01

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.

Pattern formation for NO+N H3 on Pt(100): Two-dimensional numerical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uecker, Hannes

2005-01-01

The Lombardo-Fink-Imbihl model of the NO+NH3 reaction on a Pt(100) surface consists of seven coupled ordinary differential equations (ODE) and shows stable relaxation oscillations with sharp transitions in the relevant temperature range. Here we study numerically the effect of coupling of these oscillators by surface diffusion in two dimensions. We find different types of patterns, in particular phase clusters and standing waves. In models of related surface reactions such clustered solutions are known to exist only under a global coupling through the gas phase. This global coupling is replaced here by relatively fast diffusion of two variables which are kinetically slaved in the ODE. We also compare our simulations with experimental results and discuss some shortcomings of the model.

Rapid production of polymer microstructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagarajan, Pratapkumar

The goal of this research is to develop an integrated polymer embossing module, with which difficult-to-emboss polymer microstructures and microparts can be fabricated in a cost-effective manner. In particular, the research addresses three major limitations of the hot embossing process, namely, long cycle time, difficulty in producing shell patterns, and difficulty in building up a high embossing pressure on thick substrates. To overcome these limitations, three new technical approaches - two-station embossing, rubber-assisted embossing, and through-thickness embossing - were developed and investigated. Fundamental understanding of these new embossing techniques were achieved through extensive experimental and theoretical studies involving parametric experiments, rheological characterization, surface investigation, mathematical modeling, and computer simulation. A two-station embossing process was developed to reduce the hot embossing cycle time, accomplished by decoupling the heating and cooling stations. For this purpose, the standard hot embossing mold was replaced by a shell type mold, and separate hot and cold stations were used to selectively heat and cool the shell mold during the process. With this method, microlens arrays and micro channels were fabricated onto ABS and HDPE substrates with a cycle time of approximately 10 s. Numerical simulations were performed to study the effect of different design parameters, including thermal contact resistance, shell material and shell thickness, on the thermal response at the mold surface. Furthermore, the polymer flow during the two-station embossing process for the microlens was numerically studied. The simulated filling behavior agreed with the experimental observation, and the predicted thermal and deformation history of the polymer offers a good explanation on the experimentally observed process characteristics. The second technique, rubber-assisted embossing, involving a rubber pad as a soft counter tool, was developed for precision embossing of shell structures. The rubber pad acted as a temporary negative during embossing and recovered to its original geometry after mold opening. With rubber-assisted embossing, a micro shell pattern with a characteristic size of 50 mum was successfully patterned on 25-mum thick polystyrene films. A focused study was undertaken on rubber-assisted isothermal embossing to establish the relationship between process parameters and pattern replication. It was found that the pattern replication and film uniformity were affected by the embossing temperature and the hardness of rubber. It was also found that adequate plasticity and higher stiffness of the deforming film were essential in achieving excellent pattern replication and uniformity in film thickness. The through-thickness embossing process was developed for embossing pressure buildup and fabrication of 3-D parts. The embossing tool includes a punching head and to-be-replicated features in the socket behind the punching head. The built-in punching head facilitates a through-thickness action and provides a close-die environment for embossing pressure buildup. The method was used to emboss multichannel millimeter waveguides which requires crispy edges and accurate dimensions. With a tool temperature of 140°C, an embossing time of 3 min and a total cycle time of 7 min, discrete 4-channel waveguides were successfully embossed from a room-temperature ABS substrate. A computer model was established to study the flow behavior during through-thickness embossing. It was found that nonisothermal embossing conditions helped to confine the polymer in the cavity and reduce the outflow into the surrounding region, thus achieving complete fill of the cavity.

Temperature And Wind Velocity Oscillations Along a Gentle Slope During Sea-Breeze Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe

2005-03-01

The flow structure on a gentle slope at Vallon d’Ol in the northern suburbs of Marseille in southern France has been documented by means of surface wind and temperature measurements collected from 7 June to 14 July 2001 during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The analysis of the time series reveals temperature and wind speed oscillations during several nights (about 60--90 min oscillation period) and several days (about 120-180 min oscillation period) during the whole observing period. Oscillating katabatic winds have been reported in the literature from theoretical, experimental and numerical studies. In the present study, the dynamics of the observed oscillating katabatic winds are in good agreement with the theory.In contrast to katabatic winds, no daytime observations of oscillating anabatic upslope flows have ever been published to our knowledge, probably because of temperature inversion break-up that inhibits upslope winds. The present paper shows that cold air advection by a sea breeze generates a mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient, and hence baroclinicity in the atmosphere, which then allows low-frequency oscillations, similar to a katabatic flow. An expression for the oscillation period is derived that accounts for the contribution of the sea-breeze induced mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient. The theoretical prediction of the oscillation period is compared to the measurements, and good agreement is found. The statistical analysis of the wind flow at Vallon d’Ol shows a dominant north-easterly to easterly flow pattern for nighttime oscillations and a dominant south-westerly flow pattern for daytime oscillations. These results are consistent with published numerical simulation results that show that the air drains off the mountain along the maximum slope direction, which in the studied case is oriented south-west to north-east.

Historical GIS Data and Changes in Urban Morphological Parameters for the Analysis of Urban Heat Islands in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, F.; Wong, M. S.; Nichol, J. E.; Chan, P. W.

2016-06-01

Rapid urban development between the 1960 and 2010 decades have changed the urban landscape and pattern in the Kowloon Peninsula of Hong Kong. This paper aims to study the changes of urban morphological parameters between the 1985 and 2010 and explore their influences on the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study applied a mono-window algorithm to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1987 to 2009. In order to estimate the effects of local urban morphological parameters to LST, the global surface temperature anomaly was analysed. Historical 3D building model was developed based on aerial photogrammetry technique using aerial photographs from 1964 to 2010, in which the urban digital surface models (DSMs) including elevations of infrastructures and buildings have been generated. Then, urban morphological parameters (i.e. frontal area index (FAI), sky view factor (SVF)), vegetation fractional cover (VFC), global solar radiation (GSR), Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), wind speed were derived. Finally, a linear regression method in Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) was used to build prediction model for revealing LST spatial patterns. Results show that the final apparent surface temperature have uncertainties less than 1 degree Celsius. The comparison between the simulated and actual spatial pattern of LST in 2009 showed that the correlation coefficient is 0.65, mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.24 degree Celsius, and root mean square error (RMSE) is 1.51 degree Celsius of 22,429 pixels.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

Recent intensification of the Walker Circulation and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Allen, R.

2017-12-01

In a warming world, the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation-including the Walker Circulation-is expected to weaken due to thermodynamic constraints. Tropical precipitation increases at a slower rate than water vapor-which increases according to Clausius Clapeyron scaling, assuming constant relative humidity-so the tropical overturning circulation slows down. This is supported by both observations and model simulations, which show a slowdown of the Walker Circulation over the 20th century. Model projections suggest a further weakening of the Walker Circulation in the 21st century. However, over the last several decades (1979-2014), multiple observations reveal a robust strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Although coupled CMIP5 simulations are unable to reproduce this strengthening, AMIP simulations-which feature the observed evolution of SSTs-are generally able to reproduce it. Assuming the ensemble mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical CMIP5 simulations accurately represent the externally forced SST response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. CAM5 AMIP-type simulations driven by the unforced component of observed SSTs reproduce the observed strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Corresponding simulations driven by the forced component of observed SSTs yield a weaker Walker Circulation. These results are consistent with the zonal tropical SST gradient and the Bjerknes feedback. The unforced component of SSTs yield an increased SST gradient over tropical Pacific (a La Nina like pattern) and strengthening of the tropical trade winds, which constitute the lower branch of the Walker Circulation. The forced component of SSTs yields a zonally uniform tropical Pacific SST warming and a marginal weakening of the Walker Circulation. Our results suggest significant modulation of the tropical Walker Circulation by natural SST variability over the last several decades.