Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

2014-10-01

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Methods for Genomic Selection of Traits with Additive and Epistatic Genetic Architectures

PubMed Central

Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

2014-01-01

Parametric and nonparametric methods have been developed for purposes of predicting phenotypes. These methods are based on retrospective analyses of empirical data consisting of genotypic and phenotypic scores. Recent reports have indicated that parametric methods are unable to predict phenotypes of traits with known epistatic genetic architectures. Herein, we review parametric methods including least squares regression, ridge regression, Bayesian ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), Bayesian LASSO, best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes C, and Bayes Cπ. We also review nonparametric methods including Nadaraya-Watson estimator, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, support vector machine regression, and neural networks. We assess the relative merits of these 14 methods in terms of accuracy and mean squared error (MSE) using simulated genetic architectures consisting of completely additive or two-way epistatic interactions in an F2 population derived from crosses of inbred lines. Each simulated genetic architecture explained either 30% or 70% of the phenotypic variability. The greatest impact on estimates of accuracy and MSE was due to genetic architecture. Parametric methods were unable to predict phenotypic values when the underlying genetic architecture was based entirely on epistasis. Parametric methods were slightly better than nonparametric methods for additive genetic architectures. Distinctions among parametric methods for additive genetic architectures were incremental. Heritability, i.e., proportion of phenotypic variability, had the second greatest impact on estimates of accuracy and MSE. PMID:24727289

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

Comparison of Co-Temporal Modeling Algorithms on Sparse Experimental Time Series Data Sets.

PubMed

Allen, Edward E; Norris, James L; John, David J; Thomas, Stan J; Turkett, William H; Fetrow, Jacquelyn S

2010-01-01

Multiple approaches for reverse-engineering biological networks from time-series data have been proposed in the computational biology literature. These approaches can be classified by their underlying mathematical algorithms, such as Bayesian or algebraic techniques, as well as by their time paradigm, which includes next-state and co-temporal modeling. The types of biological relationships, such as parent-child or siblings, discovered by these algorithms are quite varied. It is important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various algorithms and time paradigms on actual experimental data. We assess how well the co-temporal implementations of three algorithms, continuous Bayesian, discrete Bayesian, and computational algebraic, can 1) identify two types of entity relationships, parent and sibling, between biological entities, 2) deal with experimental sparse time course data, and 3) handle experimental noise seen in replicate data sets. These algorithms are evaluated, using the shuffle index metric, for how well the resulting models match literature models in terms of siblings and parent relationships. Results indicate that all three co-temporal algorithms perform well, at a statistically significant level, at finding sibling relationships, but perform relatively poorly in finding parent relationships.

Bayesian hierarchical model of ceftriaxone resistance proportions among Salmonella serotype Heidelberg infections.

PubMed

Gu, Weidong; Medalla, Felicita; Hoekstra, Robert M

2018-02-01

The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks resistance among Salmonella infections. The annual number of Salmonella isolates of a particular serotype from states may be small, making direct estimation of resistance proportions unreliable. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve estimation by borrowing strength from relevant sampling units. We illustrate the models with different specifications of spatio-temporal interaction using 2004-2013 NARMS data for ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella serotype Heidelberg. Our results show that Bayesian estimates of resistance proportions were smoother than observed values, and the difference between predicted and observed proportions was inversely related to the number of submitted isolates. The model with interaction allowed for tracking of annual changes in resistance proportions at the state level. We demonstrated that Bayesian hierarchical models provide a useful tool to examine spatio-temporal patterns of small sample size such as those found in NARMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian model selection for disease mapping

PubMed Central

Carroll, R; Lawson, AB; Faes, C; Kirby, RS; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2016-01-01

Spatio-temporal analysis of small area health data often involves choosing a fixed set of predictors prior to the final model fit. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach of Bayesian model selection to implement model selection for certain areas of the study region as well as certain years in the study time line. Here, we examine the usefulness of this approach by way of a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a case study. Our results suggest that a special case of the model selection methods, a mixture model allowing a weight parameter to indicate if the appropriate linear predictor is spatial, spatio-temporal, or a mixture of the two, offers the best option to fitting these spatio-temporal models. In addition, the case study illustrates the effectiveness of this mixture model within the model selection setting by easily accommodating lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables to select a predominantly spatio-temporal linear predictor. PMID:28070156

Traffic Video Image Segmentation Model Based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jun; Bao, Xu; Li, Dawei; Yin, Yongwen

2017-10-01

Traffic video image is a kind of dynamic image and its background and foreground is changed at any time, which results in the occlusion. In this case, using the general method is more difficult to get accurate image segmentation. A segmentation algorithm based on Bayesian and Spatio-Temporal Markov Random Field is put forward, which respectively build the energy function model of observation field and label field to motion sequence image with Markov property, then according to Bayesian' rule, use the interaction of label field and observation field, that is the relationship of label field’s prior probability and observation field’s likelihood probability, get the maximum posterior probability of label field’s estimation parameter, use the ICM model to extract the motion object, consequently the process of segmentation is finished. Finally, the segmentation methods of ST - MRF and the Bayesian combined with ST - MRF were analyzed. Experimental results: the segmentation time in Bayesian combined with ST-MRF algorithm is shorter than in ST-MRF, and the computing workload is small, especially in the heavy traffic dynamic scenes the method also can achieve better segmentation effect.

Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species.

PubMed

Cook, Alex; Marion, Glenn; Butler, Adam; Gibson, Gavin

2007-08-01

In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in a stochastic spatio-temporal model of the spread of invasive species across a landscape. To date, statistical techniques, such as logistic and autologistic regression, have outstripped stochastic spatio-temporal models in their ability to handle large numbers of covariates. Here we seek to address this problem by making use of a range of covariates describing the bio-geographical features of the landscape. Relative to regression techniques, stochastic spatio-temporal models are more transparent in their representation of biological processes. They also explicitly model temporal change, and therefore do not require the assumption that the species' distribution (or other spatial pattern) has already reached equilibrium as is often the case with standard statistical approaches. In order to illustrate the use of such techniques we apply them to the analysis of data detailing the spread of an invasive plant, Heracleum mantegazzianum, across Britain in the 20th Century using geo-referenced covariate information describing local temperature, elevation and habitat type. The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling within a Bayesian framework facilitates statistical assessments of differences in the suitability of different habitat classes for H. mantegazzianum, and enables predictions of future spread to account for parametric uncertainty and system variability. Our results show that ignoring such covariate information may lead to biased estimates of key processes and implausible predictions of future distributions.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O₃ ...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, B

This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

2014-02-01

In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

PubMed

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal flexibility among the three networks. Our proposed methods provide a novel and powerful generative model for investigating dynamic brain connectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

Treesearch

Stephen M. Pawson; Bruce G. Marcot; Owen G. Woodberry

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight...

Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process.

PubMed

Ding, Mingtao; He, Lihan; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2012-12-01

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

A local approach for focussed Bayesian fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael; Goussev, Igor; Beyerer, Jürgen

2009-04-01

Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim to reduce high storage and computational costs of Bayesian fusion which is separated from fixed modeling assumptions. Using the small world formalism, we argue why this proceeding is conform with Bayesian theory. Then, we concentrate on the realization of local Bayesian fusion by focussing the fusion process solely on local regions that are task relevant with a high probability. The resulting local models correspond then to restricted versions of the original one. In a previous publication, we used bounds for the probability of misleading evidence to show the validity of the pre-evaluation of task specific knowledge and prior information which we perform to build local models. In this paper, we prove the validity of this proceeding using information theoretic arguments. For additional efficiency, local Bayesian fusion can be realized in a distributed manner. Here, several local Bayesian fusion tasks are evaluated and unified after the actual fusion process. For the practical realization of distributed local Bayesian fusion, software agents are predestinated. There is a natural analogy between the resulting agent based architecture and criminal investigations in real life. We show how this analogy can be used to improve the efficiency of distributed local Bayesian fusion additionally. Using a landscape model, we present an experimental study of distributed local Bayesian fusion in the field of reconnaissance, which highlights its high potential.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio–Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio–Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

PubMed

Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

Evidence-based Controls for Epidemics Using Spatio-temporal Stochastic Model as a Bayesian Framwork

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models con...

Deciphering structural and temporal interplays during the architectural development of mango trees.

PubMed

Dambreville, Anaëlle; Lauri, Pierre-Éric; Trottier, Catherine; Guédon, Yann; Normand, Frédéric

2013-05-01

Plant architecture is commonly defined by the adjacency of organs within the structure and their properties. Few studies consider the effect of endogenous temporal factors, namely phenological factors, on the establishment of plant architecture. This study hypothesized that, in addition to the effect of environmental factors, the observed plant architecture results from both endogenous structural and temporal components, and their interplays. Mango tree, which is characterized by strong phenological asynchronisms within and between trees and by repeated vegetative and reproductive flushes during a growing cycle, was chosen as a plant model. During two consecutive growing cycles, this study described vegetative and reproductive development of 20 trees submitted to the same environmental conditions. Four mango cultivars were considered to assess possible cultivar-specific patterns. Integrative vegetative and reproductive development models incorporating generalized linear models as components were built. These models described the occurrence, intensity, and timing of vegetative and reproductive development at the growth unit scale. This study showed significant interplays between structural and temporal components of plant architectural development at two temporal scales. Within a growing cycle, earliness of bud burst was highly and positively related to earliness of vegetative development and flowering. Between growing cycles, flowering growth units delayed vegetative development compared to growth units that did not flower. These interplays explained how vegetative and reproductive phenological asynchronisms within and between trees were generated and maintained. It is suggested that causation networks involving structural and temporal components may give rise to contrasted tree architectures.

Airborne bacterial assemblage in a zero carbon building: A case study.

PubMed

Leung, M H Y; Tong, X; Tong, J C K; Lee, P K H

2018-01-01

Currently, there is little information pertaining to the airborne bacterial communities of green buildings. In this case study, the air bacterial community of a zero carbon building (ZCB) in Hong Kong was characterized by targeting the bacterial 16S rRNA gene. Bacteria associated with the outdoor environment dominated the indoor airborne bacterial assemblage, with a modest contribution from bacteria associated with human skin. Differences in overall community diversity, membership, and composition associated with short (day-to-day) and long-term temporal properties were detected, which may have been driven by specific environmental genera and taxa. Furthermore, time-decay relationships in community membership (based on unweighted UniFrac distances) and composition (based on weighted UniFrac distances) differed depending on the season and sampling location. A Bayesian source-tracking approach further supported the importance of adjacent outdoor air bacterial assemblage in sourcing the ZCB indoor bioaerosol. Despite the unique building attributes, the ZCB microbial assemblage detected and its temporal characteristics were not dissimilar to that of conventional built environments investigated previously. Future controlled experiments and microbial assemblage investigations of other ZCBs will undoubtedly uncover additional knowledge related to how airborne bacteria in green buildings may be influenced by their distinctive architectural attributes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian modeling of flexible cognitive control

PubMed Central

Jiang, Jiefeng; Heller, Katherine; Egner, Tobias

2014-01-01

“Cognitive control” describes endogenous guidance of behavior in situations where routine stimulus-response associations are suboptimal for achieving a desired goal. The computational and neural mechanisms underlying this capacity remain poorly understood. We examine recent advances stemming from the application of a Bayesian learner perspective that provides optimal prediction for control processes. In reviewing the application of Bayesian models to cognitive control, we note that an important limitation in current models is a lack of a plausible mechanism for the flexible adjustment of control over conflict levels changing at varying temporal scales. We then show that flexible cognitive control can be achieved by a Bayesian model with a volatility-driven learning mechanism that modulates dynamically the relative dependence on recent and remote experiences in its prediction of future control demand. We conclude that the emergent Bayesian perspective on computational mechanisms of cognitive control holds considerable promise, especially if future studies can identify neural substrates of the variables encoded by these models, and determine the nature (Bayesian or otherwise) of their neural implementation. PMID:24929218

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

BCM: toolkit for Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers.

PubMed

Thijssen, Bram; Dijkstra, Tjeerd M H; Heskes, Tom; Wessels, Lodewyk F A

2016-10-21

Computational models in biology are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty can be analyzed with Bayesian statistics, however, the sampling algorithms that are frequently used for calculating Bayesian statistical estimates are computationally demanding, and each algorithm has unique advantages and disadvantages. It is typically unclear, before starting an analysis, which algorithm will perform well on a given computational model. We present BCM, a toolkit for the Bayesian analysis of Computational Models using samplers. It provides efficient, multithreaded implementations of eleven algorithms for sampling from posterior probability distributions and for calculating marginal likelihoods. BCM includes tools to simplify the process of model specification and scripts for visualizing the results. The flexible architecture allows it to be used on diverse types of biological computational models. In an example inference task using a model of the cell cycle based on ordinary differential equations, BCM is significantly more efficient than existing software packages, allowing more challenging inference problems to be solved. BCM represents an efficient one-stop-shop for computational modelers wishing to use sampler-based Bayesian statistics.

Bayesian Modeling of Temporal Coherence in Videos for Entity Discovery and Summarization.

PubMed

Mitra, Adway; Biswas, Soma; Bhattacharyya, Chiranjib

2017-03-01

A video is understood by users in terms of entities present in it. Entity Discovery is the task of building appearance model for each entity (e.g., a person), and finding all its occurrences in the video. We represent a video as a sequence of tracklets, each spanning 10-20 frames, and associated with one entity. We pose Entity Discovery as tracklet clustering, and approach it by leveraging Temporal Coherence (TC): the property that temporally neighboring tracklets are likely to be associated with the same entity. Our major contributions are the first Bayesian nonparametric models for TC at tracklet-level. We extend Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) to TC-CRP, and further to Temporally Coherent Chinese Restaurant Franchise (TC-CRF) to jointly model entities and temporal segments using mixture components and sparse distributions. For discovering persons in TV serial videos without meta-data like scripts, these methods show considerable improvement over state-of-the-art approaches to tracklet clustering in terms of clustering accuracy, cluster purity and entity coverage. The proposed methods can perform online tracklet clustering on streaming videos unlike existing approaches, and can automatically reject false tracklets. Finally we discuss entity-driven video summarization- where temporal segments of the video are selected based on the discovered entities, to create a semantically meaningful summary.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

A functional model for characterizing long-distance movement behaviour

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buderman, Frances E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ivan, Jacob S.; Shenk, Tanya M.

2016-01-01

Advancements in wildlife telemetry techniques have made it possible to collect large data sets of highly accurate animal locations at a fine temporal resolution. These data sets have prompted the development of a number of statistical methodologies for modelling animal movement.Telemetry data sets are often collected for purposes other than fine-scale movement analysis. These data sets may differ substantially from those that are collected with technologies suitable for fine-scale movement modelling and may consist of locations that are irregular in time, are temporally coarse or have large measurement error. These data sets are time-consuming and costly to collect but may still provide valuable information about movement behaviour.We developed a Bayesian movement model that accounts for error from multiple data sources as well as movement behaviour at different temporal scales. The Bayesian framework allows us to calculate derived quantities that describe temporally varying movement behaviour, such as residence time, speed and persistence in direction. The model is flexible, easy to implement and computationally efficient.We apply this model to data from Colorado Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and use derived quantities to identify changes in movement behaviour.

A Machine Learning Concept for DTN Routing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudukovich, Rachel; Hylton, Alan; Papachristou, Christos

2017-01-01

This paper discusses the concept and architecture of a machine learning based router for delay tolerant space networks. The techniques of reinforcement learning and Bayesian learning are used to supplement the routing decisions of the popular Contact Graph Routing algorithm. An introduction to the concepts of Contact Graph Routing, Q-routing and Naive Bayes classification are given. The development of an architecture for a cross-layer feedback framework for DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) protocols is discussed. Finally, initial simulation setup and results are given.

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology. PMID:24358072

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

2011-03-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

Efficient Bayesian mixed model analysis increases association power in large cohorts

PubMed Central

Loh, Po-Ru; Tucker, George; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan K; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Finucane, Hilary K; Salem, Rany M; Chasman, Daniel I; Ridker, Paul M; Neale, Benjamin M; Berger, Bonnie; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L

2014-01-01

Linear mixed models are a powerful statistical tool for identifying genetic associations and avoiding confounding. However, existing methods are computationally intractable in large cohorts, and may not optimize power. All existing methods require time cost O(MN2) (where N = #samples and M = #SNPs) and implicitly assume an infinitesimal genetic architecture in which effect sizes are normally distributed, which can limit power. Here, we present a far more efficient mixed model association method, BOLT-LMM, which requires only a small number of O(MN)-time iterations and increases power by modeling more realistic, non-infinitesimal genetic architectures via a Bayesian mixture prior on marker effect sizes. We applied BOLT-LMM to nine quantitative traits in 23,294 samples from the Women’s Genome Health Study (WGHS) and observed significant increases in power, consistent with simulations. Theory and simulations show that the boost in power increases with cohort size, making BOLT-LMM appealing for GWAS in large cohorts. PMID:25642633

Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

PubMed

Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

2018-02-01

In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in the development of neuroanatomical functional connectivity underlying intelligence found using Bayesian connectivity analysis.

PubMed

Schmithorst, Vincent J; Holland, Scott K

2007-03-01

A Bayesian method for functional connectivity analysis was adapted to investigate between-group differences. This method was applied in a large cohort of almost 300 children to investigate differences in boys and girls in the relationship between intelligence and functional connectivity for the task of narrative comprehension. For boys, a greater association was shown between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking Broca's area to auditory processing areas, including Wernicke's areas and the right posterior superior temporal gyrus. For girls, a greater association was shown between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking the left posterior superior temporal gyrus to Wernicke's areas bilaterally. A developmental effect was also seen, with girls displaying a positive correlation with age in the association between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking the right posterior superior temporal gyrus to Wernicke's areas bilaterally. Our results demonstrate a sexual dimorphism in the relationship of functional connectivity to intelligence in children and an increasing reliance on inter-hemispheric connectivity in girls with age.

MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

2017-09-01

Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

A Bayesian-Based Approach to Marine Spatial Planning: Evaluating Spatial and Temporal Variance in the Provision of Ecosystem Services Before and After the Establishment Oregon's Marine Protected Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, B.; Harte, M.; Goldfinger, C.

2017-12-01

Participating in a ten-year monitoring project to assess the ecological, social, and socioeconomic impacts of Oregon's Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), we have worked in partnership with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) to develop a Bayesian geospatial method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variance in the provision of ecosystem services produced by Oregon's MPAs. Probabilistic (Bayesian) approaches to Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) show considerable potential for addressing issues such as uncertainty, cumulative effects, and the need to integrate stakeholder-held information and preferences into decision making processes. To that end, we have created a Bayesian-based geospatial approach to MSP capable of modelling the evolution of the provision of ecosystem services before and after the establishment of Oregon's MPAs. Our approach permits both planners and stakeholders to view expected impacts of differing policies, behaviors, or choices made concerning Oregon's MPAs and surrounding areas in a geospatial (map) format while simultaneously considering multiple parties' beliefs on the policies or uses in question. We quantify the influence of the MPAs as the shift in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, both inside and outside the protected areas, over time. Once the MPAs' influence on the provision of coastal ecosystem services has been evaluated, it is possible to view these impacts through geovisualization techniques. As a specific example of model use and output, a user could investigate the effects of altering the habitat preferences of a rockfish species over a prescribed period of time (5, 10, 20 years post-harvesting restrictions, etc.) on the relative intensity of spillover from nearby reserves (please see submitted figure). Particular strengths of our Bayesian-based approach include its ability to integrate highly disparate input types (qualitative or quantitative), to accommodate data gaps, address uncertainty, and to investigate temporal and spatial variation. This approach conveys the modeled outcome of proposed policy changes and is also a vehicle through which stakeholders and planners can work together to compare and deliberate on the impacts of policy and management changes, a capacity of considerable utility for planners and stakeholders engaged in MSP.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian analysis of Lyme disease in New York state, 1990-2000.

PubMed

Chen, Haiyan; Stratton, Howard H; Caraco, Thomas B; White, Dennis J

2006-07-01

Mapping ordinarily increases our understanding of nontrivial spatial and temporal heterogeneities in disease rates. However, the large number of parameters required by the corresponding statistical models often complicates detailed analysis. This study investigates the feasibility of a fully Bayesian hierarchical regression approach to the problem and identifies how it outperforms two more popular methods: crude rate estimates (CRE) and empirical Bayes standardization (EBS). In particular, we apply a fully Bayesian approach to the spatiotemporal analysis of Lyme disease incidence in New York state for the period 1990-2000. These results are compared with those obtained by CRE and EBS in Chen et al. (2005). We show that the fully Bayesian regression model not only gives more reliable estimates of disease rates than the other two approaches but also allows for tractable models that can accommodate more numerous sources of variation and unknown parameters.

System Architecture for Temporal Information Extraction, Representation and Reasoning in Clinical Narrative Reports

PubMed Central

Zhou, Li; Friedman, Carol; Parsons, Simon; Hripcsak, George

2005-01-01

Exploring temporal information in narrative Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) is essential and challenging. We propose an architecture for an integrated approach to process temporal information in clinical narrative reports. The goal is to initiate and build a foundation that supports applications which assist healthcare practice and research by including the ability to determine the time of clinical events (e.g., past vs. present). Key components include: (1) a temporal constraint structure for temporal expressions and the development of an associated tagger; (2) a Natural Language Processing (NLP) system for encoding and extracting medical events and associating them with formalized temporal data; (3) a post-processor, with a knowledge-based subsystem to help discover implicit information, that resolves temporal expressions and deals with issues such as granularity and vagueness; and (4) a reasoning mechanism which models clinical reports as Simple Temporal Problems (STPs). PMID:16779164

Hiereachical Bayesian Model for Combining Geochemical and Geophysical Data for Environmental Applications Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong

2013-05-01

Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of aqueous geochemical parameters associated with in-situ bioremediation using surface spectral induced polarization (SIP) data and borehole geochemical measurements collected during a bioremediation experiment at a uranium-contaminated site near Rifle, Colorado. The SIP data are first inverted for Cole-Cole parameters including chargeability, time constant, resistivity at the DC frequency and dependence factor, at each pixel of two-dimensional grids using a previously developed stochastic method. Correlations between the inverted Cole-Cole parameters and the wellbore-based groundwater chemistry measurements indicative of key metabolic processes within the aquifer (e.g. ferrous iron, sulfate, uranium)more » were established and used as a basis for petrophysical model development. The developed Bayesian model consists of three levels of statistical sub-models: 1) data model, providing links between geochemical and geophysical attributes, 2) process model, describing the spatial and temporal variability of geochemical properties in the subsurface system, and 3) parameter model, describing prior distributions of various parameters and initial conditions. The unknown parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. By combining the temporally distributed geochemical data with the spatially distributed geophysical data, we obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of ferrous iron, sulfate and sulfide, and their associated uncertainity information. The obtained results can be used to assess the efficacy of the bioremediation treatment over space and time and to constrain reactive transport models.« less

Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

PubMed

Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

2006-01-01

Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

How People Use Social Information to Find out What to Want in the Paradigmatic Case of Inter-temporal Preferences

PubMed Central

Dolan, Raymond J.

2016-01-01

The weight with which a specific outcome feature contributes to preference quantifies a person’s ‘taste’ for that feature. However, far from being fixed personality characteristics, tastes are plastic. They tend to align, for example, with those of others even if such conformity is not rewarded. We hypothesised that people can be uncertain about their tastes. Personal tastes are therefore uncertain beliefs. People can thus learn about them by considering evidence, such as the preferences of relevant others, and then performing Bayesian updating. If a person’s choice variability reflects uncertainty, as in random-preference models, then a signature of Bayesian updating is that the degree of taste change should correlate with that person’s choice variability. Temporal discounting coefficients are an important example of taste–for patience. These coefficients quantify impulsivity, have good psychometric properties and can change upon observing others’ choices. We examined discounting preferences in a novel, large community study of 14–24 year olds. We assessed discounting behaviour, including decision variability, before and after participants observed another person’s choices. We found good evidence for taste uncertainty and for Bayesian taste updating. First, participants displayed decision variability which was better accounted for by a random-taste than by a response-noise model. Second, apparent taste shifts were well described by a Bayesian model taking into account taste uncertainty and the relevance of social information. Our findings have important neuroscientific, clinical and developmental significance. PMID:27447491

Inference on the Genetic Basis of Eye and Skin Color in an Admixed Population via Bayesian Linear Mixed Models.

PubMed

Lloyd-Jones, Luke R; Robinson, Matthew R; Moser, Gerhard; Zeng, Jian; Beleza, Sandra; Barsh, Gregory S; Tang, Hua; Visscher, Peter M

2017-06-01

Genetic association studies in admixed populations are underrepresented in the genomics literature, with a key concern for researchers being the adequate control of spurious associations due to population structure. Linear mixed models (LMMs) are well suited for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) because they account for both population stratification and cryptic relatedness and achieve increased statistical power by jointly modeling all genotyped markers. Additionally, Bayesian LMMs allow for more flexible assumptions about the underlying distribution of genetic effects, and can concurrently estimate the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by genetic markers. Using three recently published Bayesian LMMs, Bayes R, BSLMM, and BOLT-LMM, we investigate an existing data set on eye ( n = 625) and skin ( n = 684) color from Cape Verde, an island nation off West Africa that is home to individuals with a broad range of phenotypic values for eye and skin color due to the mix of West African and European ancestry. We use simulations to demonstrate the utility of Bayesian LMMs for mapping loci and studying the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in admixed populations. The Bayesian LMMs provide evidence for two new pigmentation loci: one for eye color ( AHRR ) and one for skin color ( DDB1 ). Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Omid; Lindsey, Merry L; Yang, Tianyi; Nguyen, Nguyen; Huang, Yufei; Jin, Yu-Fang

2011-01-01

The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV) response to myocardial infarction (MI) and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly parameterized dynamic systems. Our proposed Bayesian algorithm successfully estimated parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways. This method can be further extended to high order systems and thus provides a useful tool to analyze biological dynamics and extract information using temporal data.

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Hanlon, Cathleen A.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Anderson, Gary A.

2016-01-01

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007–2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km2 home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed. PMID:27127994

Genetic architechture and biological basis for feed efficiency in dairy cattle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genetic architecture of residual feed intake (RFI) and related traits was evaluated using a dataset of 2,894 cows. A Bayesian analysis estimated that markers accounted for 14% of the variance in RFI, and that RFI had considerable genetic variation. Effects of marker windows were small, but QTL p...

Modeling fatigue.

PubMed

Sumner, Walton; Xu, Jin Zhong

2002-01-01

The American Board of Family Practice is developing a patient simulation program to evaluate diagnostic and management skills. The simulator must give temporally and physiologically reasonable answers to symptom questions such as "Have you been tired?" A three-step process generates symptom histories. In the first step, the simulator determines points in time where it should calculate instantaneous symptom status. In the second step, a Bayesian network implementing a roughly physiologic model of the symptom generates a value on a severity scale at each sampling time. Positive, zero, and negative values represent increased, normal, and decreased status, as applicable. The simulator plots these values over time. In the third step, another Bayesian network inspects this plot and reports how the symptom changed over time. This mechanism handles major trends, multiple and concurrent symptom causes, and gradually effective treatments. Other temporal insights, such as observations about short-term symptom relief, require complimentary mechanisms.

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

PubMed Central

Pawson, Stephen M.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Woodberry, Owen G.

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model’s predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways. PMID:28953904

Temporal and spatial variabilities of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred by GRACE in a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.

GBIS (Geodetic Bayesian Inversion Software): Rapid Inversion of InSAR and GNSS Data to Estimate Surface Deformation Source Parameters and Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagnardi, M.; Hooper, A. J.

2017-12-01

Inversions of geodetic observational data, such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, are often performed to obtain information about the source of surface displacements. Inverse problem theory has been applied to study magmatic processes, the earthquake cycle, and other phenomena that cause deformation of the Earth's interior and of its surface. Together with increasing improvements in data resolution, both spatial and temporal, new satellite missions (e.g., European Commission's Sentinel-1 satellites) are providing the unprecedented opportunity to access space-geodetic data within hours from their acquisition. To truly take advantage of these opportunities we must become able to interpret geodetic data in a rapid and robust manner. Here we present the open-source Geodetic Bayesian Inversion Software (GBIS; available for download at http://comet.nerc.ac.uk/gbis). GBIS is written in Matlab and offers a series of user-friendly and interactive pre- and post-processing tools. For example, an interactive function has been developed to estimate the characteristics of noise in InSAR data by calculating the experimental semi-variogram. The inversion software uses a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm, incorporating the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with adaptive step size, to efficiently sample the posterior probability distribution of the different source parameters. The probabilistic Bayesian approach allows the user to retrieve estimates of the optimal (best-fitting) deformation source parameters together with the associated uncertainties produced by errors in the data (and by scaling, errors in the model). The current version of GBIS (V1.0) includes fast analytical forward models for magmatic sources of different geometry (e.g., point source, finite spherical source, prolate spheroid source, penny-shaped sill-like source, and dipping-dike with uniform opening) and for dipping faults with uniform slip, embedded in a isotropic elastic half-space. However, the software architecture allows the user to easily add any other analytical or numerical forward models to calculate displacements at the surface. GBIS is delivered with a detailed user manual and three synthetic datasets for testing and practical training.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

Compiling quantum circuits to realistic hardware architectures using temporal planners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venturelli, Davide; Do, Minh; Rieffel, Eleanor; Frank, Jeremy

2018-04-01

To run quantum algorithms on emerging gate-model quantum hardware, quantum circuits must be compiled to take into account constraints on the hardware. For near-term hardware, with only limited means to mitigate decoherence, it is critical to minimize the duration of the circuit. We investigate the application of temporal planners to the problem of compiling quantum circuits to newly emerging quantum hardware. While our approach is general, we focus on compiling to superconducting hardware architectures with nearest neighbor constraints. Our initial experiments focus on compiling Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) circuits whose high number of commuting gates allow great flexibility in the order in which the gates can be applied. That freedom makes it more challenging to find optimal compilations but also means there is a greater potential win from more optimized compilation than for less flexible circuits. We map this quantum circuit compilation problem to a temporal planning problem, and generated a test suite of compilation problems for QAOA circuits of various sizes to a realistic hardware architecture. We report compilation results from several state-of-the-art temporal planners on this test set. This early empirical evaluation demonstrates that temporal planning is a viable approach to quantum circuit compilation.

Bayesian model reveals latent atrophy factors with dissociable cognitive trajectories in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiuming; Mormino, Elizabeth C; Sun, Nanbo; Sperling, Reisa A; Sabuncu, Mert R; Yeo, B T Thomas

2016-10-18

We used a data-driven Bayesian model to automatically identify distinct latent factors of overlapping atrophy patterns from voxelwise structural MRIs of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia patients. Our approach estimated the extent to which multiple distinct atrophy patterns were expressed within each participant rather than assuming that each participant expressed a single atrophy factor. The model revealed a temporal atrophy factor (medial temporal cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala), a subcortical atrophy factor (striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum), and a cortical atrophy factor (frontal, parietal, lateral temporal, and lateral occipital cortices). To explore the influence of each factor in early AD, atrophy factor compositions were inferred in beta-amyloid-positive (Aβ+) mild cognitively impaired (MCI) and cognitively normal (CN) participants. All three factors were associated with memory decline across the entire clinical spectrum, whereas the cortical factor was associated with executive function decline in Aβ+ MCI participants and AD dementia patients. Direct comparison between factors revealed that the temporal factor showed the strongest association with memory, whereas the cortical factor showed the strongest association with executive function. The subcortical factor was associated with the slowest decline for both memory and executive function compared with temporal and cortical factors. These results suggest that distinct patterns of atrophy influence decline across different cognitive domains. Quantification of this heterogeneity may enable the computation of individual-level predictions relevant for disease monitoring and customized therapies. Factor compositions of participants and code used in this article are publicly available for future research.

The entropy reduction engine: Integrating planning, scheduling, and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.; Kedar, Smadar T.

1991-01-01

The Entropy Reduction Engine, an architecture for the integration of planning, scheduling, and control, is described. The architecture is motivated, presented, and analyzed in terms of its different components; namely, problem reduction, temporal projection, and situated control rule execution. Experience with this architecture has motivated the recent integration of learning. The learning methods are described along with their impact on architecture performance.

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Learning oncogenetic networks by reducing to mixed integer linear programming.

PubMed

Shahrabi Farahani, Hossein; Lagergren, Jens

2013-01-01

Cancer can be a result of accumulation of different types of genetic mutations such as copy number aberrations. The data from tumors are cross-sectional and do not contain the temporal order of the genetic events. Finding the order in which the genetic events have occurred and progression pathways are of vital importance in understanding the disease. In order to model cancer progression, we propose Progression Networks, a special case of Bayesian networks, that are tailored to model disease progression. Progression networks have similarities with Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (CBNs) [1],a variation of Bayesian networks also proposed for modeling disease progression. We also describe a learning algorithm for learning Bayesian networks in general and progression networks in particular. We reduce the hard problem of learning the Bayesian and progression networks to Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). MILP is a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time complete (NP-complete) problem for which very good heuristics exists. We tested our algorithm on synthetic and real cytogenetic data from renal cell carcinoma. We also compared our learned progression networks with the networks proposed in earlier publications. The software is available on the website https://bitbucket.org/farahani/diprog.

Nonlinear Bayesian filtering and learning: a neuronal dynamics for perception.

PubMed

Kutschireiter, Anna; Surace, Simone Carlo; Sprekeler, Henning; Pfister, Jean-Pascal

2017-08-18

The robust estimation of dynamical hidden features, such as the position of prey, based on sensory inputs is one of the hallmarks of perception. This dynamical estimation can be rigorously formulated by nonlinear Bayesian filtering theory. Recent experimental and behavioral studies have shown that animals' performance in many tasks is consistent with such a Bayesian statistical interpretation. However, it is presently unclear how a nonlinear Bayesian filter can be efficiently implemented in a network of neurons that satisfies some minimum constraints of biological plausibility. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF), a sampling-based nonlinear Bayesian filter, which does not rely on importance weights. We show that this filter can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics of a recurrently connected rate-based neural network receiving feed-forward input from sensory neurons. Further, it captures properties of temporal and multi-sensory integration that are crucial for perception, and it allows for online parameter learning with a maximum likelihood approach. The NPF holds the promise to avoid the 'curse of dimensionality', and we demonstrate numerically its capability to outperform weighted particle filters in higher dimensions and when the number of particles is limited.

Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.

PubMed

Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.

Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey

PubMed Central

Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind–morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging–, thereby broadening the scope–molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical– of the brain aspects to be studied. PMID:25360109

Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjidoukas, P. E.; Angelikopoulos, P.; Papadimitriou, C.; Koumoutsakos, P.

2015-03-01

We present Π4U, an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow.

Temporal abstraction and temporal Bayesian networks in clinical domains: a survey.

PubMed

Orphanou, Kalia; Stassopoulou, Athena; Keravnou, Elpida

2014-03-01

Temporal abstraction (TA) of clinical data aims to abstract and interpret clinical data into meaningful higher-level interval concepts. Abstracted concepts are used for diagnostic, prediction and therapy planning purposes. On the other hand, temporal Bayesian networks (TBNs) are temporal extensions of the known probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian networks. TBNs can represent temporal relationships between events and their state changes, or the evolution of a process, through time. This paper offers a survey on techniques/methods from these two areas that were used independently in many clinical domains (e.g. diabetes, hepatitis, cancer) for various clinical tasks (e.g. diagnosis, prognosis). A main objective of this survey, in addition to presenting the key aspects of TA and TBNs, is to point out important benefits from a potential integration of TA and TBNs in medical domains and tasks. The motivation for integrating these two areas is their complementary function: TA provides clinicians with high level views of data while TBNs serve as a knowledge representation and reasoning tool under uncertainty, which is inherent in all clinical tasks. Key publications from these two areas of relevance to clinical systems, mainly circumscribed to the latest two decades, are reviewed and classified. TA techniques are compared on the basis of: (a) knowledge acquisition and representation for deriving TA concepts and (b) methodology for deriving basic and complex temporal abstractions. TBNs are compared on the basis of: (a) representation of time, (b) knowledge representation and acquisition, (c) inference methods and the computational demands of the network, and (d) their applications in medicine. The survey performs an extensive comparative analysis to illustrate the separate merits and limitations of various TA and TBN techniques used in clinical systems with the purpose of anticipating potential gains through an integration of the two techniques, thus leading to a unified methodology for clinical systems. The surveyed contributions are evaluated using frameworks of respective key features. In addition, for the evaluation of TBN methods, a unifying clinical domain (diabetes) is used. The main conclusion transpiring from this review is that techniques/methods from these two areas, that so far are being largely used independently of each other in clinical domains, could be effectively integrated in the context of medical decision-support systems. The anticipated key benefits of the perceived integration are: (a) during problem solving, the reasoning can be directed at different levels of temporal and/or conceptual abstractions since the nodes of the TBNs can be complex entities, temporally and structurally and (b) during model building, knowledge generated in the form of basic and/or complex abstractions, can be deployed in a TBN. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The NIST Real-Time Control System (RCS): A Reference Model Architecture for Computational Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albus, James S.

1996-01-01

The Real-time Control System (RCS) developed at NIST and elsewhere over the past two decades defines a reference model architecture for design and analysis of complex intelligent control systems. The RCS architecture consists of a hierarchically layered set of functional processing modules connected by a network of communication pathways. The primary distinguishing feature of the layers is the bandwidth of the control loops. The characteristic bandwidth of each level is determined by the spatial and temporal integration window of filters, the temporal frequency of signals and events, the spatial frequency of patterns, and the planning horizon and granularity of the planners that operate at each level. At each level, tasks are decomposed into sequential subtasks, to be performed by cooperating sets of subordinate agents. At each level, signals from sensors are filtered and correlated with spatial and temporal features that are relevant to the control function being implemented at that level.

Connectionist Architectures for Time Series Prediction of Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigend, Andreas Sebastian

We investigate the effectiveness of connectionist networks for predicting the future continuation of temporal sequences. The problem of overfitting, particularly serious for short records of noisy data, is addressed by the method of weight-elimination: a term penalizing network complexity is added to the usual cost function in back-propagation. We describe the dynamics of the procedure and clarify the meaning of the parameters involved. From a Bayesian perspective, the complexity term can be usefully interpreted as an assumption about prior distribution of the weights. We analyze three time series. On the benchmark sunspot series, the networks outperform traditional statistical approaches. We show that the network performance does not deteriorate when there are more input units than needed. In the second example, the notoriously noisy foreign exchange rates series, we pick one weekday and one currency (DM vs. US). Given exchange rate information up to and including a Monday, the task is to predict the rate for the following Tuesday. Weight-elimination manages to extract a significant part of the dynamics and makes the solution interpretable. In the third example, the networks predict the resource utilization of a chaotic computational ecosystem for hundreds of steps forward in time.

Spatio-temporal Eigenvector Filtering: Application on Bioenergy Crop Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Kamarianakis, Y.; Georgescu, M.

2017-12-01

A suite of 10-year ensemble-based simulations was conducted to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts due to large-scale deployment of perennial bioenergy crops across the continental United States. Given the large size of the simulated dataset (about 60Tb), traditional hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical modelling cannot be implemented for the evaluation of physics parameterizations and biofuel impacts. In this work, we propose a filtering algorithm that takes into account the spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of the data while avoiding spatial confounding. This method is used to quantify the robustness of simulated hydroclimatic impacts associated with bioenergy crops to alternative physics parameterizations and observational datasets. Results are evaluated against those obtained from three alternative Bayesian spatio-temporal specifications.

Temporal BYY encoding, Markovian state spaces, and space dimension determination.

PubMed

Xu, Lei

2004-09-01

As a complementary to those temporal coding approaches of the current major stream, this paper aims at the Markovian state space temporal models from the perspective of the temporal Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) learning with both new insights and new results on not only the discrete state featured Hidden Markov model and extensions but also the continuous state featured linear state spaces and extensions, especially with a new learning mechanism that makes selection of the state number or the dimension of state space either automatically during adaptive learning or subsequently after learning via model selection criteria obtained from this mechanism. Experiments are demonstrated to show how the proposed approach works.

Bayesian ionospheric multi-instrument 3D tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norberg, Johannes; Vierinen, Juha; Roininen, Lassi

2017-04-01

The tomographic reconstruction of ionospheric electron densities is an inverse problem that cannot be solved without relatively strong regularising additional information. % Especially the vertical electron density profile is determined predominantly by the regularisation. % %Often utilised regularisations in ionospheric tomography include smoothness constraints and iterative methods with initial ionospheric models. % Despite its crucial role, the regularisation is often hidden in the algorithm as a numerical procedure without physical understanding. % % The Bayesian methodology provides an interpretative approach for the problem, as the regularisation can be given in a physically meaningful and quantifiable prior probability distribution. % The prior distribution can be based on ionospheric physics, other available ionospheric measurements and their statistics. % Updating the prior with measurements results as the posterior distribution that carries all the available information combined. % From the posterior distribution, the most probable state of the ionosphere can then be solved with the corresponding probability intervals. % Altogether, the Bayesian methodology provides understanding on how strong the given regularisation is, what is the information gained with the measurements and how reliable the final result is. % In addition, the combination of different measurements and temporal development can be taken into account in a very intuitive way. However, a direct implementation of the Bayesian approach requires inversion of large covariance matrices resulting in computational infeasibility. % In the presented method, Gaussian Markov random fields are used to form a sparse matrix approximations for the covariances. % The approach makes the problem computationally feasible while retaining the probabilistic and physical interpretation. Here, the Bayesian method with Gaussian Markov random fields is applied for ionospheric 3D tomography over Northern Europe. % Multi-instrument measurements are utilised from TomoScand receiver network for Low Earth orbit beacon satellite signals, GNSS receiver networks, as well as from EISCAT ionosondes and incoherent scatter radars. % %The performance is demonstrated in three-dimensional spatial domain with temporal development also taken into account.

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models

PubMed Central

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A.; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A.; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A.

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website. PMID:29200994

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models.

PubMed

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

Hybrid ICA-Bayesian network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Kim, D; Burge, J; Lane, T; Pearlson, G D; Kiehl, K A; Calhoun, V D

2008-10-01

We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge, J., Lane, T., Link, H., Qiu, S., Clark, V.P., 2007. Discrete dynamic Bayesian network analysis of fMRI data. Hum Brain Mapp.) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge, J., Lane, T., 2005. Learning Class-Discriminative Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Bonn, Germany, pp. 97-104.). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, A., 1991. Probability, random variables, and stochastic processes. McGraw-Hill, New York.). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions, including bilateral temporal, frontal, and cerebellar regions during an auditory paradigm.

Missing value imputation: with application to handwriting data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhen; Srihari, Sargur N.

2015-01-01

Missing values make pattern analysis difficult, particularly with limited available data. In longitudinal research, missing values accumulate, thereby aggravating the problem. Here we consider how to deal with temporal data with missing values in handwriting analysis. In the task of studying development of individuality of handwriting, we encountered the fact that feature values are missing for several individuals at several time instances. Six algorithms, i.e., random imputation, mean imputation, most likely independent value imputation, and three methods based on Bayesian network (static Bayesian network, parameter EM, and structural EM), are compared with children's handwriting data. We evaluate the accuracy and robustness of the algorithms under different ratios of missing data and missing values, and useful conclusions are given. Specifically, static Bayesian network is used for our data which contain around 5% missing data to provide adequate accuracy and low computational cost.

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

A Comparison of FPGA and GPGPU Designs for Bayesian Occupancy Filters.

PubMed

Medina, Luis; Diez-Ochoa, Miguel; Correal, Raul; Cuenca-Asensi, Sergio; Serrano, Alejandro; Godoy, Jorge; Martínez-Álvarez, Antonio; Villagra, Jorge

2017-11-11

Grid-based perception techniques in the automotive sector based on fusing information from different sensors and their robust perceptions of the environment are proliferating in the industry. However, one of the main drawbacks of these techniques is the traditionally prohibitive, high computing performance that is required for embedded automotive systems. In this work, the capabilities of new computing architectures that embed these algorithms are assessed in a real car. The paper compares two ad hoc optimized designs of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter; one for General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) and the other for Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The resulting implementations are compared in terms of development effort, accuracy and performance, using datasets from a realistic simulator and from a real automated vehicle.

On-chip visual perception of motion: a bio-inspired connectionist model on FPGA.

PubMed

Torres-Huitzil, César; Girau, Bernard; Castellanos-Sánchez, Claudio

2005-01-01

Visual motion provides useful information to understand the dynamics of a scene to allow intelligent systems interact with their environment. Motion computation is usually restricted by real time requirements that need the design and implementation of specific hardware architectures. In this paper, the design of hardware architecture for a bio-inspired neural model for motion estimation is presented. The motion estimation is based on a strongly localized bio-inspired connectionist model with a particular adaptation of spatio-temporal Gabor-like filtering. The architecture is constituted by three main modules that perform spatial, temporal, and excitatory-inhibitory connectionist processing. The biomimetic architecture is modeled, simulated and validated in VHDL. The synthesis results on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) device show the potential achievement of real-time performance at an affordable silicon area.

An adaptable architecture for patient cohort identification from diverse data sources.

PubMed

Bache, Richard; Miles, Simon; Taweel, Adel

2013-12-01

We define and validate an architecture for systems that identify patient cohorts for clinical trials from multiple heterogeneous data sources. This architecture has an explicit query model capable of supporting temporal reasoning and expressing eligibility criteria independently of the representation of the data used to evaluate them. The architecture has the key feature that queries defined according to the query model are both pre and post-processed and this is used to address both structural and semantic heterogeneity. The process of extracting the relevant clinical facts is separated from the process of reasoning about them. A specific instance of the query model is then defined and implemented. We show that the specific instance of the query model has wide applicability. We then describe how it is used to access three diverse data warehouses to determine patient counts. Although the proposed architecture requires greater effort to implement the query model than would be the case for using just SQL and accessing a data-based management system directly, this effort is justified because it supports both temporal reasoning and heterogeneous data sources. The query model only needs to be implemented once no matter how many data sources are accessed. Each additional source requires only the implementation of a lightweight adaptor. The architecture has been used to implement a specific query model that can express complex eligibility criteria and access three diverse data warehouses thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach in dealing with temporal reasoning and data heterogeneity.

Applying spatio-temporal models to assess variations across health care areas and regions: Lessons from the decentralized Spanish National Health System.

PubMed

Librero, Julián; Ibañez, Berta; Martínez-Lizaga, Natalia; Peiró, Salvador; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2017-01-01

To illustrate the ability of hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models in capturing different geo-temporal structures in order to explain hospital risk variations using three different conditions: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), Colectomy in Colorectal Cancer (CCC) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This is an observational population-based spatio-temporal study, from 2002 to 2013, with a two-level geographical structure, Autonomous Communities (AC) and Health Care Areas (HA). The Spanish National Health System, a quasi-federal structure with 17 regional governments (AC) with full responsibility in planning and financing, and 203 HA providing hospital and primary care to a defined population. A poisson-log normal mixed model in the Bayesian framework was fitted using the INLA efficient estimation procedure. The spatio-temporal hospitalization relative risks, the evolution of their variation, and the relative contribution (fraction of variation) of each of the model components (AC, HA, year and interaction AC-year). Following PCI-CCC-CODP order, the three conditions show differences in the initial hospitalization rates (from 4 to 21 per 10,000 person-years) and in their trends (upward, inverted V shape, downward). Most of the risk variation is captured by phenomena occurring at the HA level (fraction variance: 51.6, 54.7 and 56.9%). At AC level, the risk of PCI hospitalization follow a heterogeneous ascending dynamic (interaction AC-year: 17.7%), whereas in COPD the AC role is more homogenous and important (37%). In a system where the decisions loci are differentiated, the spatio-temporal modeling allows to assess the dynamic relative role of different levels of decision and their influence on health outcomes.

The brain connectome as a personalized biomarker of seizure outcomes after temporal lobectomy.

PubMed

Bonilha, Leonardo; Jensen, Jens H; Baker, Nathaniel; Breedlove, Jesse; Nesland, Travis; Lin, Jack J; Drane, Daniel L; Saindane, Amit M; Binder, Jeffrey R; Kuzniecky, Ruben I

2015-05-05

We examined whether individual neuronal architecture obtained from the brain connectome can be used to estimate the surgical success of anterior temporal lobectomy (ATL) in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). We retrospectively studied 35 consecutive patients with TLE who underwent ATL. The structural brain connectome was reconstructed from all patients using presurgical diffusion MRI. Network links in patients were standardized as Z scores based on connectomes reconstructed from healthy controls. The topography of abnormalities in linkwise elements of the connectome was assessed on subnetworks linking ipsilateral temporal with extratemporal regions. Predictive models were constructed based on the individual prevalence of linkwise Z scores >2 and based on presurgical clinical data. Patients were more likely to achieve postsurgical seizure freedom if they exhibited fewer abnormalities within a subnetwork composed of the ipsilateral hippocampus, amygdala, thalamus, superior frontal region, lateral temporal gyri, insula, orbitofrontal cortex, cingulate, and lateral occipital gyrus. Seizure-free surgical outcome was predicted by neural architecture alone with 90% specificity (83% accuracy), and by neural architecture combined with clinical data with 94% specificity (88% accuracy). Individual variations in connectome topography, combined with presurgical clinical data, may be used as biomarkers to better estimate surgical outcomes in patients with TLE. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

Bayesian inversion analysis of nonlinear dynamics in surface heterogeneous reactions.

PubMed

Omori, Toshiaki; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Okamoto, Atsushi; Hukushima, Koji

2016-09-01

It is essential to extract nonlinear dynamics from time-series data as an inverse problem in natural sciences. We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for extracting nonlinear dynamics of surface heterogeneous reactions from sparse and noisy observable data. Surface heterogeneous reactions are chemical reactions with conjugation of multiple phases, and they have the intrinsic nonlinearity of their dynamics caused by the effect of surface-area between different phases. We adapt a belief propagation method and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to partial observation problem, in order to simultaneously estimate the time course of hidden variables and the kinetic parameters underlying dynamics. The proposed belief propagation method is performed by using sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to estimate nonlinear dynamical system. Using our proposed method, we show that the rate constants of dissolution and precipitation reactions, which are typical examples of surface heterogeneous reactions, as well as the temporal changes of solid reactants and products, were successfully estimated only from the observable temporal changes in the concentration of the dissolved intermediate product.

Using a Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Interaction between Catchment Characteristics and Water Quality Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Lintern, A.; Liu, S.; Ryu, D.; Webb, J. A.; Leahy, P.; Wilson, P.; Waters, D.; Bende-Michl, U.; Watson, M.

2016-12-01

Many streams, lakes and estuaries are experiencing increasing concentrations and loads of nutrient and sediments. Models that can predict the spatial and temporal variability in water quality of aquatic systems are required to help guide the management and restoration of polluted aquatic systems. We propose that a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework could be used to predict water quality responses over varying spatial and temporal scales. Stream water quality data and spatial data of catchment characteristics collected throughout Victoria and Queensland (in Australia) over two decades will be used to develop this Bayesian hierarchical model. In this paper, we present the preliminary exploratory data analysis required for the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model. Specifically, we present the results of exploratory data analysis of Total Nitrogen (TN) concentrations in rivers in Victoria (in South-East Australia) to illustrate the catchment characteristics that appear to be influencing spatial variability in (1) mean concentrations of TN; and (2) the relationship between discharge and TN throughout the state. These important catchment characteristics were identified using: (1) monthly TN concentrations measured at 28 water quality gauging stations and (2) climate, land use, topographic and geologic characteristics of the catchments of these 28 sites. Spatial variability in TN concentrations had a positive correlation to fertiliser use in the catchment and average temperature. There were negative correlations between TN concentrations and catchment forest cover, annual runoff, runoff perenniality, soil erosivity and catchment slope. The relationship between discharge and TN concentrations showed spatial variability, possibly resulting from climatic and topographic differences between the sites. The results of this study will feed into the hierarchical Bayesian model of river water quality.

How powerful are summary-based methods for identifying expression-trait associations under different genetic architectures?

PubMed

Veturi, Yogasudha; Ritchie, Marylyn D

2018-01-01

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) have recently been employed as an approach that can draw upon the advantages of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and gene expression studies to identify genes associated with complex traits. Unlike standard GWAS, summary level data suffices for TWAS and offers improved statistical power. Two popular TWAS methods include either (a) imputing the cis genetic component of gene expression from smaller sized studies (using multi-SNP prediction or MP) into much larger effective sample sizes afforded by GWAS - TWAS-MP or (b) using summary-based Mendelian randomization - TWAS-SMR. Although these methods have been effective at detecting functional variants, it remains unclear how extensive variability in the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases impacts TWAS results. Our goal was to investigate the different scenarios under which these methods yielded enough power to detect significant expression-trait associations. In this study, we conducted extensive simulations based on 6000 randomly chosen, unrelated Caucasian males from Geisinger's MyCode population to compare the power to detect cis expression-trait associations (within 500 kb of a gene) using the above-described approaches. To test TWAS across varying genetic backgrounds we simulated gene expression and phenotype using different quantitative trait loci per gene and cis-expression /trait heritability under genetic models that differentiate the effect of causality from that of pleiotropy. For each gene, on a training set ranging from 100 to 1000 individuals, we either (a) estimated regression coefficients with gene expression as the response using five different methods: LASSO, elastic net, Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian spike-slab, and Bayesian ridge regression or (b) performed eQTL analysis. We then sampled with replacement 50,000, 150,000, and 300,000 individuals respectively from the testing set of the remaining 5000 individuals and conducted GWAS on each set. Subsequently, we integrated the GWAS summary statistics derived from the testing set with the weights (or eQTLs) derived from the training set to identify expression-trait associations using (a) TWAS-MP (b) TWAS-SMR (c) eQTL-based GWAS, or (d) standalone GWAS. Finally, we examined the power to detect functionally relevant genes using the different approaches under the considered simulation scenarios. In general, we observed great similarities among TWAS-MP methods although the Bayesian methods resulted in improved power in comparison to LASSO and elastic net as the trait architecture grew more complex while training sample sizes and expression heritability remained small. Finally, we observed high power under causality but very low to moderate power under pleiotropy.

A hybrid expectation maximisation and MCMC sampling algorithm to implement Bayesian mixture model based genomic prediction and QTL mapping.

PubMed

Wang, Tingting; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Bowman, Phil J; Goddard, Michael E; Hayes, Ben J

2016-09-21

Bayesian mixture models in which the effects of SNP are assumed to come from normal distributions with different variances are attractive for simultaneous genomic prediction and QTL mapping. These models are usually implemented with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling, which requires long compute times with large genomic data sets. Here, we present an efficient approach (termed HyB_BR), which is a hybrid of an Expectation-Maximisation algorithm, followed by a limited number of MCMC without the requirement for burn-in. To test prediction accuracy from HyB_BR, dairy cattle and human disease trait data were used. In the dairy cattle data, there were four quantitative traits (milk volume, protein kg, fat% in milk and fertility) measured in 16,214 cattle from two breeds genotyped for 632,002 SNPs. Validation of genomic predictions was in a subset of cattle either from the reference set or in animals from a third breeds that were not in the reference set. In all cases, HyB_BR gave almost identical accuracies to Bayesian mixture models implemented with full MCMC, however computational time was reduced by up to 1/17 of that required by full MCMC. The SNPs with high posterior probability of a non-zero effect were also very similar between full MCMC and HyB_BR, with several known genes affecting milk production in this category, as well as some novel genes. HyB_BR was also applied to seven human diseases with 4890 individuals genotyped for around 300 K SNPs in a case/control design, from the Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC). In this data set, the results demonstrated again that HyB_BR performed as well as Bayesian mixture models with full MCMC for genomic predictions and genetic architecture inference while reducing the computational time from 45 h with full MCMC to 3 h with HyB_BR. The results for quantitative traits in cattle and disease in humans demonstrate that HyB_BR can perform equally well as Bayesian mixture models implemented with full MCMC in terms of prediction accuracy, but with up to 17 times faster than the full MCMC implementations. The HyB_BR algorithm makes simultaneous genomic prediction, QTL mapping and inference of genetic architecture feasible in large genomic data sets.

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of zero-inflated biological population density data by a delta-normal spatiotemporal additive model.

PubMed

Arcuti, Simona; Pollice, Alessio; Ribecco, Nunziata; D'Onghia, Gianfranco

2016-03-01

We evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the density of a particular species of crustacean known as deep-water rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, based on biological sample data collected during trawl surveys carried out from 1995 to 2006 as part of the international project MEDITS (MEDiterranean International Trawl Surveys). As is the case for many biological variables, density data are continuous and characterized by unusually large amounts of zeros, accompanied by a skewed distribution of the remaining values. Here we analyze the normalized density data by a Bayesian delta-normal semiparametric additive model including the effects of covariates, using penalized regression with low-rank thin-plate splines for nonlinear spatial and temporal effects. Modeling the zero and nonzero values by two joint processes, as we propose in this work, allows to obtain great flexibility and easily handling of complex likelihood functions, avoiding inaccurate statistical inferences due to misclassification of the high proportion of exact zeros in the model. Bayesian model estimation is obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, suitably specifying the complex likelihood function of the zero-inflated density data. The study highlights relevant nonlinear spatial and temporal effects and the influence of the annual Mediterranean oscillations index and of the sea surface temperature on the distribution of the deep-water rose shrimp density. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Model averaging, optimal inference, and habit formation

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function—the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge—that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behavior. Bayesian model averaging—which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence—provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent's behavior should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesize that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realizable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behavior. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded) Bayesian inference, focusing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behavior. PMID:25018724

Learning in the context of distribution drift

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-09

published in the leading data mining journal, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (Webb et. al., 2016)1. We have shown that the previous qualitative...learner Low-bias learner Aggregated classifier Figure 7: Architecture for learning fr m streaming data in th co text of variable or unknown...Learning limited dependence Bayesian classifiers, in Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD

Construction of Endo-Time and its Manipulation in Autopoietic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaž, Igor

2005-10-01

Two main factors determine construction of internal temporal architecture in autopoietic systems: external pressure and network of internal interdependences. External influences are given for systems and they are only able to incorporate them into its own functional and temporal blueprint, with very small space for further manipulations. But, internal processes, or more precisely, irreversible reductions toward determined states are enclosed into mobile and alterative network of re-productive cycles. On that basis autopoietic systems are able to construct and manipulate with different temporal strategies as reversibility, delaying, circularity, spiral flows, different distribution of times and so on. Special case is construction of transient time fields, called here intersubjective times, that arise as fusions of two or more specific temporal architectures during their interactions. This paper describes construction of internal proliferation of time patterns and analyze their functional usefulness.

Bayesian 2-Stage Space-Time Mixture Modeling With Spatial Misalignment of the Exposure in Small Area Health Data.

PubMed

Lawson, Andrew B; Choi, Jungsoon; Cai, Bo; Hossain, Monir; Kirby, Russell S; Liu, Jihong

2012-09-01

We develop a new Bayesian two-stage space-time mixture model to investigate the effects of air pollution on asthma. The two-stage mixture model proposed allows for the identification of temporal latent structure as well as the estimation of the effects of covariates on health outcomes. In the paper, we also consider spatial misalignment of exposure and health data. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the 2-stage mixture model. We apply our statistical framework to a county-level ambulatory care asthma data set in the US state of Georgia for the years 1999-2008.

Bayesian estimation of self-similarity exponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarava, Natallia; Benmehdi, Sabah; Holschneider, Matthias

2011-08-01

In this study we propose a Bayesian approach to the estimation of the Hurst exponent in terms of linear mixed models. Even for unevenly sampled signals and signals with gaps, our method is applicable. We test our method by using artificial fractional Brownian motion of different length and compare it with the detrended fluctuation analysis technique. The estimation of the Hurst exponent of a Rosenblatt process is shown as an example of an H-self-similar process with non-Gaussian dimensional distribution. Additionally, we perform an analysis with real data, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closing values, and analyze its temporal variation of the Hurst exponent.

The visual system’s internal model of the world

PubMed Central

Lee, Tai Sing

2015-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm has provided a useful conceptual theory for understanding perceptual computation in the brain. While the detailed neural mechanisms of Bayesian inference are not fully understood, recent computational and neurophysiological works have illuminated the underlying computational principles and representational architecture. The fundamental insights are that the visual system is organized as a modular hierarchy to encode an internal model of the world, and that perception is realized by statistical inference based on such internal model. In this paper, I will discuss and analyze the varieties of representational schemes of these internal models and how they might be used to perform learning and inference. I will argue for a unified theoretical framework for relating the internal models to the observed neural phenomena and mechanisms in the visual cortex. PMID:26566294

A Comparison of FPGA and GPGPU Designs for Bayesian Occupancy Filters

PubMed Central

Medina, Luis; Diez-Ochoa, Miguel; Correal, Raul; Cuenca-Asensi, Sergio; Godoy, Jorge; Martínez-Álvarez, Antonio

2017-01-01

Grid-based perception techniques in the automotive sector based on fusing information from different sensors and their robust perceptions of the environment are proliferating in the industry. However, one of the main drawbacks of these techniques is the traditionally prohibitive, high computing performance that is required for embedded automotive systems. In this work, the capabilities of new computing architectures that embed these algorithms are assessed in a real car. The paper compares two ad hoc optimized designs of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter; one for General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) and the other for Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The resulting implementations are compared in terms of development effort, accuracy and performance, using datasets from a realistic simulator and from a real automated vehicle. PMID:29137137

An adaptable architecture for patient cohort identification from diverse data sources

PubMed Central

Bache, Richard; Miles, Simon; Taweel, Adel

2013-01-01

Objective We define and validate an architecture for systems that identify patient cohorts for clinical trials from multiple heterogeneous data sources. This architecture has an explicit query model capable of supporting temporal reasoning and expressing eligibility criteria independently of the representation of the data used to evaluate them. Method The architecture has the key feature that queries defined according to the query model are both pre and post-processed and this is used to address both structural and semantic heterogeneity. The process of extracting the relevant clinical facts is separated from the process of reasoning about them. A specific instance of the query model is then defined and implemented. Results We show that the specific instance of the query model has wide applicability. We then describe how it is used to access three diverse data warehouses to determine patient counts. Discussion Although the proposed architecture requires greater effort to implement the query model than would be the case for using just SQL and accessing a data-based management system directly, this effort is justified because it supports both temporal reasoning and heterogeneous data sources. The query model only needs to be implemented once no matter how many data sources are accessed. Each additional source requires only the implementation of a lightweight adaptor. Conclusions The architecture has been used to implement a specific query model that can express complex eligibility criteria and access three diverse data warehouses thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach in dealing with temporal reasoning and data heterogeneity. PMID:24064442

An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.

2012-01-01

A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.

Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.

PubMed

Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lila, Marisol

2017-10-18

'Place' matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. We conducted a 12-year (2004-2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units, we used 552 census block groups. Cases were geocoded using the family address. Neighborhood-level characteristics analyzed included three indicators of neighborhood disadvantage-neighborhood economic status, neighborhood education level, and levels of policing activity-, immigrant concentration, and residential instability. Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and disease mapping methods were used to provide area-specific risk estimations. Results from a spatio-temporal autoregressive model showed that neighborhoods with low levels of economic and educational status, with high levels of policing activity, and high immigrant concentration had higher levels of substantiated child maltreatment risk. Disease mapping methods were used to analyze areas of excess risk. Results showed chronic spatial patterns of high child maltreatment risk during the years analyzed, as well as stability over time in areas of low risk. Areas with increased or decreased child maltreatment risk over the years were also observed. A spatio-temporal epidemiological approach to study the geographical patterns, trends over time, and the contextual determinants of child maltreatment risk can provide a useful method to inform policy and action. This method can offer a more accurate description of the problem, and help to inform more localized prevention and intervention strategies. This new approach can also contribute to an improved epidemiological surveillance system to detect ecological variations in risk, and to assess the effectiveness of the initiatives to reduce this risk.

Ridge, Lasso and Bayesian additive-dominance genomic models.

PubMed

Azevedo, Camila Ferreira; de Resende, Marcos Deon Vilela; E Silva, Fabyano Fonseca; Viana, José Marcelo Soriano; Valente, Magno Sávio Ferreira; Resende, Márcio Fernando Ribeiro; Muñoz, Patricio

2015-08-25

A complete approach for genome-wide selection (GWS) involves reliable statistical genetics models and methods. Reports on this topic are common for additive genetic models but not for additive-dominance models. The objective of this paper was (i) to compare the performance of 10 additive-dominance predictive models (including current models and proposed modifications), fitted using Bayesian, Lasso and Ridge regression approaches; and (ii) to decompose genomic heritability and accuracy in terms of three quantitative genetic information sources, namely, linkage disequilibrium (LD), co-segregation (CS) and pedigree relationships or family structure (PR). The simulation study considered two broad sense heritability levels (0.30 and 0.50, associated with narrow sense heritabilities of 0.20 and 0.35, respectively) and two genetic architectures for traits (the first consisting of small gene effects and the second consisting of a mixed inheritance model with five major genes). G-REML/G-BLUP and a modified Bayesian/Lasso (called BayesA*B* or t-BLASSO) method performed best in the prediction of genomic breeding as well as the total genotypic values of individuals in all four scenarios (two heritabilities x two genetic architectures). The BayesA*B*-type method showed a better ability to recover the dominance variance/additive variance ratio. Decomposition of genomic heritability and accuracy revealed the following descending importance order of information: LD, CS and PR not captured by markers, the last two being very close. Amongst the 10 models/methods evaluated, the G-BLUP, BAYESA*B* (-2,8) and BAYESA*B* (4,6) methods presented the best results and were found to be adequate for accurately predicting genomic breeding and total genotypic values as well as for estimating additive and dominance in additive-dominance genomic models.

Lithospheric architecture of NE China from joint Inversions of receiver functions and surface wave dispersion through Bayesian optimisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebastian, Nita; Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Sippl, Christian

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated inference on the lithospheric structure of NE China using three passive seismic networks comprised of 92 stations. The NE China plain consists of complex lithospheric domains characterised by the co-existence of complex geodynamic processes such as crustal thinning, active intraplate cenozoic volcanism and low velocity anomalies. To estimate lithospheric structures with greater detail, we chose to perform the joint inversion of independent data sets such as receiver functions and surface wave dispersion curves (group and phase velocity). We perform a joint inversion based on principles of Bayesian transdimensional optimisation techniques (Kim etal., 2016). Unlike in the previous studies of NE China, the complexity of the model is determined from the data in the first stage of the inversion, and the data uncertainty is computed based on Bayesian statistics in the second stage of the inversion. The computed crustal properties are retrieved from an ensemble of probable models. We obtain major structural inferences with well constrained absolute velocity estimates, which are vital for inferring properties of the lithosphere and bulk crustal Vp/Vs ratio. The Vp/Vs estimate obtained from joint inversions confirms the high Vp/Vs ratio ( 1.98) obtained using the H-Kappa method beneath some stations. Moreover, we could confirm the existence of a lower crustal velocity beneath several stations (eg: station SHS) within the NE China plain. Based on these findings we attempt to identify a plausible origin for structural complexity. We compile a high-resolution 3D image of the lithospheric architecture of the NE China plain.

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The strength and efficacy of the responses depend upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a ne...

HIERARCHIAL BAYESIAN CALIBRATION: AN APPLICATION TO AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER MONITORING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

In studies of the relationship between airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health, researchers frequently use monitoring data with the most extensive temporal coverage. Such data may come from a monitor that is not a federal reference monitor (FRM), a monitor that is d...

Large-Scale Simulations of Plastic Neural Networks on Neuromorphic Hardware

PubMed Central

Knight, James C.; Tully, Philip J.; Kaplan, Bernhard A.; Lansner, Anders; Furber, Steve B.

2016-01-01

SpiNNaker is a digital, neuromorphic architecture designed for simulating large-scale spiking neural networks at speeds close to biological real-time. Rather than using bespoke analog or digital hardware, the basic computational unit of a SpiNNaker system is a general-purpose ARM processor, allowing it to be programmed to simulate a wide variety of neuron and synapse models. This flexibility is particularly valuable in the study of biological plasticity phenomena. A recently proposed learning rule based on the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) paradigm offers a generic framework for modeling the interaction of different plasticity mechanisms using spiking neurons. However, it can be computationally expensive to simulate large networks with BCPNN learning since it requires multiple state variables for each synapse, each of which needs to be updated every simulation time-step. We discuss the trade-offs in efficiency and accuracy involved in developing an event-based BCPNN implementation for SpiNNaker based on an analytical solution to the BCPNN equations, and detail the steps taken to fit this within the limited computational and memory resources of the SpiNNaker architecture. We demonstrate this learning rule by learning temporal sequences of neural activity within a recurrent attractor network which we simulate at scales of up to 2.0 × 104 neurons and 5.1 × 107 plastic synapses: the largest plastic neural network ever to be simulated on neuromorphic hardware. We also run a comparable simulation on a Cray XC-30 supercomputer system and find that, if it is to match the run-time of our SpiNNaker simulation, the super computer system uses approximately 45× more power. This suggests that cheaper, more power efficient neuromorphic systems are becoming useful discovery tools in the study of plasticity in large-scale brain models. PMID:27092061

Distinct respiratory responses of soils to complex organic substrate are governed predominantly by soil architecture and its microbial community.

PubMed

Fraser, F C; Todman, L C; Corstanje, R; Deeks, L K; Harris, J A; Pawlett, M; Whitmore, A P; Ritz, K

2016-12-01

Factors governing the turnover of organic matter (OM) added to soils, including substrate quality, climate, environment and biology, are well known, but their relative importance has been difficult to ascertain due to the interconnected nature of the soil system. This has made their inclusion in mechanistic models of OM turnover or nutrient cycling difficult despite the potential power of these models to unravel complex interactions. Using high temporal-resolution respirometery (6 min measurement intervals), we monitored the respiratory response of 67 soils sampled from across England and Wales over a 5 day period following the addition of a complex organic substrate (green barley powder). Four respiratory response archetypes were observed, characterised by different rates of respiration as well as different time-dependent patterns. We also found that it was possible to predict, with 95% accuracy, which type of respiratory behaviour a soil would exhibit based on certain physical and chemical soil properties combined with the size and phenotypic structure of the microbial community. Bulk density, microbial biomass carbon, water holding capacity and microbial community phenotype were identified as the four most important factors in predicting the soils' respiratory responses using a Bayesian belief network. These results show that the size and constitution of the microbial community are as important as physico-chemical properties of a soil in governing the respiratory response to OM addition. Such a combination suggests that the 'architecture' of the soil, i.e. the integration of the spatial organisation of the environment and the interactions between the communities living and functioning within the pore networks, is fundamentally important in regulating such processes.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Watson, Stella C; Liu, Yan; Lund, Robert B; Gettings, Jenna R; Nordone, Shila K; McMahan, Christopher S; Yabsley, Michael J

2017-01-01

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be used to alert veterinarians in areas likely to see above average B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence in dogs in the upcoming year. In addition, because dogs and humans can be exposed to ticks in similar habitats, these data may ultimately prove useful in predicting areas where human Lyme disease risk may emerge.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Watson, Stella C.; Liu, Yan; Lund, Robert B.; Gettings, Jenna R.; Nordone, Shila K.; McMahan, Christopher S.

2017-01-01

This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be used to alert veterinarians in areas likely to see above average B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence in dogs in the upcoming year. In addition, because dogs and humans can be exposed to ticks in similar habitats, these data may ultimately prove useful in predicting areas where human Lyme disease risk may emerge. PMID:28472096

The influence of omniscient technology on cryptography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Weihong; Li, Jian

2009-07-01

Scholars agree that concurrent algorithms are an interesting new topic in the field of cyberinformatics, and hackers worldwide concur. In fact, few end-users would disagree with the evaluation of architecture. We propose a Bayesian tool for harnessing massive multiplayer online role-playing games (FIRER), which we use to prove that the well-known ubiquitous algorithm for the improvement of wide-area networks by Karthik Lakshminarayanan is in Co-NP.

An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Duncan, James S.; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.

2015-01-01

Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differences in connectivity to localize a subset of foci that are most affected by ASD. Our approach is entirely data-driven and does not impose spatial constraints on the region foci or dictate the trajectory of altered functional pathways. We apply our method to data from the openly shared Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) and pinpoint two intrinsic functional networks that distinguish ASD patients from typically developing controls. One network involves foci in the right temporal pole, left posterior cingulate cortex, left supramarginal gyrus, and left middle temporal gyrus. Automated decoding of this network by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database suggests high-level concepts of “language” and “comprehension” as the likely functional correlates. The second network consists of the left banks of the superior temporal sulcus, right posterior superior temporal sulcus extending into temporo-parietal junction, and right middle temporal gyrus. Associated functionality of these regions includes “social” and “person”. The abnormal pathways emanating from the above foci indicate that ASD patients simultaneously exhibit reduced long-range or inter-hemispheric connectivity and increased short-range or intra-hemispheric connectivity. Our findings reveal new insights into ASD and highlight possible neural mechanisms of the disorder. PMID:26106561

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence

PubMed Central

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-01-01

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain. PMID:27282108

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence.

PubMed

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-06-10

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain.

A real-time architecture for time-aware agents.

PubMed

Prouskas, Konstantinos-Vassileios; Pitt, Jeremy V

2004-06-01

This paper describes the specification and implementation of a new three-layer time-aware agent architecture. This architecture is designed for applications and environments where societies of humans and agents play equally active roles, but interact and operate in completely different time frames. The architecture consists of three layers: the April real-time run-time (ART) layer, the time aware layer (TAL), and the application agents layer (AAL). The ART layer forms the underlying real-time agent platform. An original online, real-time, dynamic priority-based scheduling algorithm is described for scheduling the computation time of agent processes, and it is shown that the algorithm's O(n) complexity and scalable performance are sufficient for application in real-time domains. The TAL layer forms an abstraction layer through which human and agent interactions are temporally unified, that is, handled in a common way irrespective of their temporal representation and scale. A novel O(n2) interaction scheduling algorithm is described for predicting and guaranteeing interactions' initiation and completion times. The time-aware predicting component of a workflow management system is also presented as an instance of the AAL layer. The described time-aware architecture addresses two key challenges in enabling agents to be effectively configured and applied in environments where humans and agents play equally active roles. It provides flexibility and adaptability in its real-time mechanisms while placing them under direct agent control, and it temporally unifies human and agent interactions.

HOTS: A Hierarchy of Event-Based Time-Surfaces for Pattern Recognition.

PubMed

Lagorce, Xavier; Orchard, Garrick; Galluppi, Francesco; Shi, Bertram E; Benosman, Ryad B

2017-07-01

This paper describes novel event-based spatio-temporal features called time-surfaces and how they can be used to create a hierarchical event-based pattern recognition architecture. Unlike existing hierarchical architectures for pattern recognition, the presented model relies on a time oriented approach to extract spatio-temporal features from the asynchronously acquired dynamics of a visual scene. These dynamics are acquired using biologically inspired frameless asynchronous event-driven vision sensors. Similarly to cortical structures, subsequent layers in our hierarchy extract increasingly abstract features using increasingly large spatio-temporal windows. The central concept is to use the rich temporal information provided by events to create contexts in the form of time-surfaces which represent the recent temporal activity within a local spatial neighborhood. We demonstrate that this concept can robustly be used at all stages of an event-based hierarchical model. First layer feature units operate on groups of pixels, while subsequent layer feature units operate on the output of lower level feature units. We report results on a previously published 36 class character recognition task and a four class canonical dynamic card pip task, achieving near 100 percent accuracy on each. We introduce a new seven class moving face recognition task, achieving 79 percent accuracy.This paper describes novel event-based spatio-temporal features called time-surfaces and how they can be used to create a hierarchical event-based pattern recognition architecture. Unlike existing hierarchical architectures for pattern recognition, the presented model relies on a time oriented approach to extract spatio-temporal features from the asynchronously acquired dynamics of a visual scene. These dynamics are acquired using biologically inspired frameless asynchronous event-driven vision sensors. Similarly to cortical structures, subsequent layers in our hierarchy extract increasingly abstract features using increasingly large spatio-temporal windows. The central concept is to use the rich temporal information provided by events to create contexts in the form of time-surfaces which represent the recent temporal activity within a local spatial neighborhood. We demonstrate that this concept can robustly be used at all stages of an event-based hierarchical model. First layer feature units operate on groups of pixels, while subsequent layer feature units operate on the output of lower level feature units. We report results on a previously published 36 class character recognition task and a four class canonical dynamic card pip task, achieving near 100 percent accuracy on each. We introduce a new seven class moving face recognition task, achieving 79 percent accuracy.

Joint inversion for transponder localization and sound-speed profile temporal variation in high-precision acoustic surveys.

PubMed

Li, Zhao; Dosso, Stan E; Sun, Dajun

2016-07-01

This letter develops a Bayesian inversion for localizing underwater acoustic transponders using a surface ship which compensates for sound-speed profile (SSP) temporal variation during the survey. The method is based on dividing observed acoustic travel-time data into time segments and including depth-independent SSP variations for each segment as additional unknown parameters to approximate the SSP temporal variation. SSP variations are estimated jointly with transponder locations, rather than calculated separately as in existing two-step inversions. Simulation and sea-trial results show this localization/SSP joint inversion performs better than two-step inversion in terms of localization accuracy, agreement with measured SSP variations, and computational efficiency.

Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grazia Pennino, M.; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José M.

2014-07-01

Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel effect and seasonal variability were identified as main driving variables for both metiers. Predictive maps of the abundance of discards and maps of the posterior mean of the spatial component show several hot spots with high discard concentration for each metier. We argue how the seasonal/spatial effects, and the knowledge about the factors influential to discarding, could potentially be exploited as potential mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies. However, misidentification of hotspots and uncertain predictions can culminate in inappropriate mitigation practices which can sometimes be irreversible. The proposed Bayesian spatial method overcomes these issues, since it offers a unified approach which allows the incorporation of spatial random-effect terms, spatial correlation of the variables and the uncertainty of the parameters in the modeling process, resulting in a better quantification of the uncertainty and accurate predictions.

Priors in Whole-Genome Regression: The Bayesian Alphabet Returns

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel

2013-01-01

Whole-genome enabled prediction of complex traits has received enormous attention in animal and plant breeding and is making inroads into human and even Drosophila genetics. The term “Bayesian alphabet” denotes a growing number of letters of the alphabet used to denote various Bayesian linear regressions that differ in the priors adopted, while sharing the same sampling model. We explore the role of the prior distribution in whole-genome regression models for dissecting complex traits in what is now a standard situation with genomic data where the number of unknown parameters (p) typically exceeds sample size (n). Members of the alphabet aim to confront this overparameterization in various manners, but it is shown here that the prior is always influential, unless n ≫ p. This happens because parameters are not likelihood identified, so Bayesian learning is imperfect. Since inferences are not devoid of the influence of the prior, claims about genetic architecture from these methods should be taken with caution. However, all such procedures may deliver reasonable predictions of complex traits, provided that some parameters (“tuning knobs”) are assessed via a properly conducted cross-validation. It is concluded that members of the alphabet have a room in whole-genome prediction of phenotypes, but have somewhat doubtful inferential value, at least when sample size is such that n ≪ p. PMID:23636739

Development of the concept of spatial-temporal mask for testing effects of discharge from well-drilling activities on biological communities.

PubMed

Pulgati, Fernando H; Ayup-Zouain, Ricardo N; Landau, Luiz; Fachel, Jandyra M G

2010-08-01

This paper describes the use of Bayesian spatial models to develop the concept of a spatial-temporal mask for the purpose of identifying regions in which before and after drilling effects are most clearly defined and from which the consequences of exposure of macrofauna and meiofauna to the release of drilling discharges can be evaluated over time. To determine the effects of drilling fluids and drill-cuttings on the marine benthic community, it is essential to know not only where discharged materials ended up within the possible impact area, but also the chemical concentrations to which biota were exposed during and after drilling. Barium and light hydrocarbons were used as chemical tracers for water-based and non-aqueous-based fluids in a shallow water site in the Campos Basin, off the coast of Brazil. Since the site showed evidence of exposure to waste material from earlier drilling, the analysis needed to take into account the background concentrations of these compounds. Using the Bayesian models, concentrations at unsampled sites were predicted and regions altered and previously contaminated were identified.

Differential Gene Expression (DEX) and Alternative Splicing Events (ASE) for Temporal Dynamic Processes Using HMMs and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Approaches.

PubMed

Oh, Sunghee; Song, Seongho

2017-01-01

In gene expression profile, data analysis pipeline is categorized into four levels, major downstream tasks, i.e., (1) identification of differential expression; (2) clustering co-expression patterns; (3) classification of subtypes of samples; and (4) detection of genetic regulatory networks, are performed posterior to preprocessing procedure such as normalization techniques. To be more specific, temporal dynamic gene expression data has its inherent feature, namely, two neighboring time points (previous and current state) are highly correlated with each other, compared to static expression data which samples are assumed as independent individuals. In this chapter, we demonstrate how HMMs and hierarchical Bayesian modeling methods capture the horizontal time dependency structures in time series expression profiles by focusing on the identification of differential expression. In addition, those differential expression genes and transcript variant isoforms over time detected in core prerequisite steps can be generally further applied in detection of genetic regulatory networks to comprehensively uncover dynamic repertoires in the aspects of system biology as the coupled framework.

DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

2018-03-01

High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

2003-04-01

This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics.

PubMed

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-10-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation.

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics

PubMed Central

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-01-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation. PMID:27699416

Architecture-Centric Development in Globally Distributed Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, Joachim

In this chapter architecture-centric development is proposed as a means to strengthen the cohesion of distributed teams and to tackle challenges due to geographical and temporal distances and the clash of different cultures. A shared software architecture serves as blueprint for all activities in the development process and ties them together. Architecture-centric development thus provides a plan for task allocation, facilitates the cooperation of globally distributed developers, and enables continuous integration reaching across distributed teams. Advice is also provided for software architects who work with distributed teams in an agile manner.

Bayesian nonparametric adaptive control using Gaussian processes.

PubMed

Chowdhary, Girish; Kingravi, Hassan A; How, Jonathan P; Vela, Patricio A

2015-03-01

Most current model reference adaptive control (MRAC) methods rely on parametric adaptive elements, in which the number of parameters of the adaptive element are fixed a priori, often through expert judgment. An example of such an adaptive element is radial basis function networks (RBFNs), with RBF centers preallocated based on the expected operating domain. If the system operates outside of the expected operating domain, this adaptive element can become noneffective in capturing and canceling the uncertainty, thus rendering the adaptive controller only semiglobal in nature. This paper investigates a Gaussian process-based Bayesian MRAC architecture (GP-MRAC), which leverages the power and flexibility of GP Bayesian nonparametric models of uncertainty. The GP-MRAC does not require the centers to be preallocated, can inherently handle measurement noise, and enables MRAC to handle a broader set of uncertainties, including those that are defined as distributions over functions. We use stochastic stability arguments to show that GP-MRAC guarantees good closed-loop performance with no prior domain knowledge of the uncertainty. Online implementable GP inference methods are compared in numerical simulations against RBFN-MRAC with preallocated centers and are shown to provide better tracking and improved long-term learning.

Student Modeling in Orthopedic Surgery Training: Exploiting Symbiosis between Temporal Bayesian Networks and Fine-Grained Didactic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chieu, Vu Minh; Luengo, Vanda; Vadcard, Lucile; Tonetti, Jerome

2010-01-01

Cognitive approaches have been used for student modeling in intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs). Many of those systems have tackled fundamental subjects such as mathematics, physics, and computer programming. The change of the student's cognitive behavior over time, however, has not been considered and modeled systematically. Furthermore, the…

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C.; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2013-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability. PMID:25284967

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes.

PubMed

Weiss, Jeremy C; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2012-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.

A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method’s graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication. PMID:22849390

Application of a Multimedia Service and Resource Management Architecture for Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Castro, Alfonso; Sedano, Andrés A.; García, Fco. Javier; Villoslada, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the complexity of global video products has substantially increased. They are composed of several associated services whose functionalities need to adapt across heterogeneous networks with different technologies and administrative domains. Each of these domains has different operational procedures; therefore, the comprehensive management of multi-domain services presents serious challenges. This paper discusses an approach to service management linking fault diagnosis system and Business Processes for Telefónica’s global video service. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of an extended service management architecture based on Multi Agent Systems able to integrate the fault diagnosis with other different service management functionalities. This architecture includes a distributed set of agents able to coordinate their actions under the umbrella of a Shared Knowledge Plane, inferring and sharing their knowledge with semantic techniques and three types of automatic reasoning: heterogeneous, ontology-based and Bayesian reasoning. This proposal has been deployed and validated in a real scenario in the video service offered by Telefónica Latam. PMID:29283398

Application of a Multimedia Service and Resource Management Architecture for Fault Diagnosis.

PubMed

Castro, Alfonso; Sedano, Andrés A; García, Fco Javier; Villoslada, Eduardo; Villagrá, Víctor A

2017-12-28

Nowadays, the complexity of global video products has substantially increased. They are composed of several associated services whose functionalities need to adapt across heterogeneous networks with different technologies and administrative domains. Each of these domains has different operational procedures; therefore, the comprehensive management of multi-domain services presents serious challenges. This paper discusses an approach to service management linking fault diagnosis system and Business Processes for Telefónica's global video service. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of an extended service management architecture based on Multi Agent Systems able to integrate the fault diagnosis with other different service management functionalities. This architecture includes a distributed set of agents able to coordinate their actions under the umbrella of a Shared Knowledge Plane, inferring and sharing their knowledge with semantic techniques and three types of automatic reasoning: heterogeneous, ontology-based and Bayesian reasoning. This proposal has been deployed and validated in a real scenario in the video service offered by Telefónica Latam.

Future applications of artificial intelligence to Mission Control Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedland, Peter

1991-01-01

Future applications of artificial intelligence to Mission Control Centers are presented in the form of the viewgraphs. The following subject areas are covered: basic objectives of the NASA-wide AI program; inhouse research program; constraint-based scheduling; learning and performance improvement for scheduling; GEMPLAN multi-agent planner; planning, scheduling, and control; Bayesian learning; efficient learning algorithms; ICARUS (an integrated architecture for learning); design knowledge acquisition and retention; computer-integrated documentation; and some speculation on future applications.

Bayesian approach for three-dimensional aquifer characterization at the Hanford 300 Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murakami, Haruko; Chen, X.; Hahn, Melanie S.

2010-10-21

This study presents a stochastic, three-dimensional characterization of a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field within DOE's Hanford 300 Area site, Washington, by assimilating large-scale, constant-rate injection test data with small-scale, three-dimensional electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) measurement data. We first inverted the injection test data to estimate the transmissivity field, using zeroth-order temporal moments of pressure buildup curves. We applied a newly developed Bayesian geostatistical inversion framework, the method of anchored distributions (MAD), to obtain a joint posterior distribution of geostatistical parameters and local log-transmissivities at multiple locations. The unique aspects of MAD that make it suitable for this purpose are itsmore » ability to integrate multi-scale, multi-type data within a Bayesian framework and to compute a nonparametric posterior distribution. After we combined the distribution of transmissivities with depth-discrete relative-conductivity profile from EBF data, we inferred the three-dimensional geostatistical parameters of the log-conductivity field, using the Bayesian model-based geostatistics. Such consistent use of the Bayesian approach throughout the procedure enabled us to systematically incorporate data uncertainty into the final posterior distribution. The method was tested in a synthetic study and validated using the actual data that was not part of the estimation. Results showed broader and skewed posterior distributions of geostatistical parameters except for the mean, which suggests the importance of inferring the entire distribution to quantify the parameter uncertainty.« less

Architectures of Kepler Planet Systems with Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morehead, Robert C.; Ford, Eric B.

2015-12-01

The distribution of period normalized transit duration ratios among Kepler’s multiple transiting planet systems constrains the distributions of mutual orbital inclinations and orbital eccentricities. However, degeneracies in these parameters tied to the underlying number of planets in these systems complicate their interpretation. To untangle the true architecture of planet systems, the mutual inclination, eccentricity, and underlying planet number distributions must be considered simultaneously. The complexities of target selection, transit probability, detection biases, vetting, and follow-up observations make it impractical to write an explicit likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) offers an intriguing path forward. In its simplest form, ABC generates a sample of trial population parameters from a prior distribution to produce synthetic datasets via a physically-motivated forward model. Samples are then accepted or rejected based on how close they come to reproducing the actual observed dataset to some tolerance. The accepted samples form a robust and useful approximation of the true posterior distribution of the underlying population parameters. We build on the considerable progress from the field of statistics to develop sequential algorithms for performing ABC in an efficient and flexible manner. We demonstrate the utility of ABC in exoplanet populations and present new constraints on the distributions of mutual orbital inclinations, eccentricities, and the relative number of short-period planets per star. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for other planet occurrence rate calculations, such as eta-Earth.

Bayesian network analysis revealed the connectivity difference of the default mode network from the resting-state to task-state

PubMed Central

Wu, Xia; Yu, Xinyu; Yao, Li; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have converged to reveal the default mode network (DMN), a constellation of regions that display co-activation during resting-state but co-deactivation during attention-demanding tasks in the brain. Here, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) analysis method to construct a directed effective connectivity model of the DMN and compared the organizational architecture and interregional directed connections under both resting-state and task-state. The analysis results indicated that the DMN was consistently organized into two closely interacting subsystems in both resting-state and task-state. The directed connections between DMN regions, however, changed significantly from the resting-state to task-state condition. The results suggest that the DMN intrinsically maintains a relatively stable structure whether at rest or performing tasks but has different information processing mechanisms under varied states. PMID:25309414

Entanglement-enhanced Neyman-Pearson target detection using quantum illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-based target detection---in an entanglement-breaking environment---whose performance is significantly better than that of optimum classical-illumination target detection. QI's performance advantage was established in a Bayesian setting with the target presumed equally likely to be absent or present and error probability employed as the performance metric. Radar theory, however, eschews that Bayesian approach, preferring the Neyman-Pearson performance criterion to avoid the difficulties of accurately assigning prior probabilities to target absence and presence and appropriate costs to false-alarm and miss errors. We have recently reported an architecture---based on sum-frequency generation (SFG) and feedforward (FF) processing---for minimum error-probability QI target detection with arbitrary prior probabilities for target absence and presence. In this paper, we use our results for FF-SFG reception to determine the receiver operating characteristic---detection probability versus false-alarm probability---for optimum QI target detection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion.

Hybrid ICA-Bayesian Network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Kim, D.; Burge, J.; Lane, T.; Pearlson, G. D; Kiehl, K. A; Calhoun, V. D.

2008-01-01

We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge et al., 2007) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge and Lane, 2005). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, 1991). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions, including bilateral temporal and frontal cortices, plus cerebellum during an auditory paradigm. PMID:18602482

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Test and Evaluation of Architecture-Aware Compiler Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

biology, medicine, social sciences , and security applications. Challenges include extremely large graphs (the Facebook friend network has over...Operations with Temporal Binning ....................................................................... 32 4.12 Memory behavior and Energy per...five challenge problems empirically, exploring their scaling properties, computation and datatype needs, memory behavior , and temporal behavior

Spatiotemporal multivariate mixture models for Bayesian model selection in disease mapping.

PubMed

Lawson, A B; Carroll, R; Faes, C; Kirby, R S; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2017-12-01

It is often the case that researchers wish to simultaneously explore the behavior of and estimate overall risk for multiple, related diseases with varying rarity while accounting for potential spatial and/or temporal correlation. In this paper, we propose a flexible class of multivariate spatio-temporal mixture models to fill this role. Further, these models offer flexibility with the potential for model selection as well as the ability to accommodate lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables with spatial, temporal, or both structures. Here, we explore the capability of this approach via a large scale simulation study and examine a motivating data example involving three cancers in South Carolina. The results which are focused on four model variants suggest that all models possess the ability to recover simulation ground truth and display improved model fit over two baseline Knorr-Held spatio-temporal interaction model variants in a real data application.

Complex Event Recognition Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzgerald, William A.; Firby, R. James

2009-01-01

Complex Event Recognition Architecture (CERA) is the name of a computational architecture, and software that implements the architecture, for recognizing complex event patterns that may be spread across multiple streams of input data. One of the main components of CERA is an intuitive event pattern language that simplifies what would otherwise be the complex, difficult tasks of creating logical descriptions of combinations of temporal events and defining rules for combining information from different sources over time. In this language, recognition patterns are defined in simple, declarative statements that combine point events from given input streams with those from other streams, using conjunction, disjunction, and negation. Patterns can be built on one another recursively to describe very rich, temporally extended combinations of events. Thereafter, a run-time matching algorithm in CERA efficiently matches these patterns against input data and signals when patterns are recognized. CERA can be used to monitor complex systems and to signal operators or initiate corrective actions when anomalous conditions are recognized. CERA can be run as a stand-alone monitoring system, or it can be integrated into a larger system to automatically trigger responses to changing environments or problematic situations.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Entropy-Bayesian Inversion of Time-Lapse Tomographic GPR data for Monitoring Dielectric Permittivity and Soil Moisture Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Z; Terry, N; Hubbard, S S

2013-02-12

In this study, we evaluate the possibility of monitoring soil moisture variation using tomographic ground penetrating radar travel time data through Bayesian inversion, which is integrated with entropy memory function and pilot point concepts, as well as efficient sampling approaches. It is critical to accurately estimate soil moisture content and variations in vadose zone studies. Many studies have illustrated the promise and value of GPR tomographic data for estimating soil moisture and associated changes, however, challenges still exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data in a manner that quantifies input and predictive uncertainty, incorporates multiple data types, handles non-uniquenessmore » and nonlinearity, and honors time-lapse tomograms collected in a series. To address these challenges, we develop a minimum relative entropy (MRE)-Bayesian based inverse modeling framework that non-subjectively defines prior probabilities, incorporates information from multiple sources, and quantifies uncertainty. The framework enables us to estimate dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the spatial correlation range. In the inversion framework, MRE is first used to derive prior probability distribution functions (pdfs) of dielectric permittivity based on prior information obtained from a straight-ray GPR inversion. The probability distributions are then sampled using a Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) approach, and the sample sets provide inputs to a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSim) algorithm that constructs a highly resolved permittivity/velocity field for evaluation with a curved-ray GPR forward model. The likelihood functions are computed as a function of misfits, and posterior pdfs are constructed using a Gaussian kernel. Inversion of subsequent time-lapse datasets combines the Bayesian estimates from the previous inversion (as a memory function) with new data. The memory function and pilot point design takes advantage of the spatial-temporal correlation of the state variables. We first apply the inversion framework to a static synthetic example and then to a time-lapse GPR tomographic dataset collected during a dynamic experiment conducted at the Hanford Site in Richland, WA. We demonstrate that the MRE-Bayesian inversion enables us to merge various data types, quantify uncertainty, evaluate nonlinear models, and produce more detailed and better resolved estimates than straight-ray based inversion; therefore, it has the potential to improve estimates of inter-wellbore dielectric permittivity and soil moisture content and to monitor their temporal dynamics more accurately.« less

Entropy-Bayesian Inversion of Time-Lapse Tomographic GPR data for Monitoring Dielectric Permittivity and Soil Moisture Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Zhangshuan; Terry, Neil C.; Hubbard, Susan S.

2013-02-22

In this study, we evaluate the possibility of monitoring soil moisture variation using tomographic ground penetrating radar travel time data through Bayesian inversion, which is integrated with entropy memory function and pilot point concepts, as well as efficient sampling approaches. It is critical to accurately estimate soil moisture content and variations in vadose zone studies. Many studies have illustrated the promise and value of GPR tomographic data for estimating soil moisture and associated changes, however, challenges still exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data in a manner that quantifies input and predictive uncertainty, incorporates multiple data types, handles non-uniquenessmore » and nonlinearity, and honors time-lapse tomograms collected in a series. To address these challenges, we develop a minimum relative entropy (MRE)-Bayesian based inverse modeling framework that non-subjectively defines prior probabilities, incorporates information from multiple sources, and quantifies uncertainty. The framework enables us to estimate dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the spatial correlation range. In the inversion framework, MRE is first used to derive prior probability density functions (pdfs) of dielectric permittivity based on prior information obtained from a straight-ray GPR inversion. The probability distributions are then sampled using a Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) approach, and the sample sets provide inputs to a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) algorithm that constructs a highly resolved permittivity/velocity field for evaluation with a curved-ray GPR forward model. The likelihood functions are computed as a function of misfits, and posterior pdfs are constructed using a Gaussian kernel. Inversion of subsequent time-lapse datasets combines the Bayesian estimates from the previous inversion (as a memory function) with new data. The memory function and pilot point design takes advantage of the spatial-temporal correlation of the state variables. We first apply the inversion framework to a static synthetic example and then to a time-lapse GPR tomographic dataset collected during a dynamic experiment conducted at the Hanford Site in Richland, WA. We demonstrate that the MRE-Bayesian inversion enables us to merge various data types, quantify uncertainty, evaluate nonlinear models, and produce more detailed and better resolved estimates than straight-ray based inversion; therefore, it has the potential to improve estimates of inter-wellbore dielectric permittivity and soil moisture content and to monitor their temporal dynamics more accurately.« less

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank

2016-12-01

Mobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985-2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual 'synthetic control' timeseries. Annual 1985-2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual 'synthetic England' timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series. There is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the 'synthetic England' time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005-2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48-324) cases annually. A causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Temporal-Spatial Ambient Concentrator Estimator (T-SpACE): Hierarchical Bayesian Model Software Used to Estimate Ambient Concentrations of NAAQS Air Pollutants in Support of Health Studies

EPA Science Inventory

To fulfill its mission to protect human health and the environment, EPA has established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on six selected air pollutants known as criteria pollutants: ozone (O3); carbon monoxide (CO); lead (Pb); nitrogen dioxide (NO2); sulfur dioxide ...

Assessing the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on respiratory-cardiovascular chronic diseases in the New York City Metropolitan area using Hierarchical Bayesian Model estimates

EPA Science Inventory

An enhanced research paradigm is presented to address the spatial and temporal gaps in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements and generate realistic and representative concentration fields for use in epidemiological studies of human exposure to ambient air particulate conce...

Spatiotemporal hurdle models for zero-inflated count data: Exploring trends in emergency department visits.

PubMed

Neelon, Brian; Chang, Howard H; Ling, Qiang; Hastings, Nicole S

2016-12-01

Motivated by a study exploring spatiotemporal trends in emergency department use, we develop a class of two-part hurdle models for the analysis of zero-inflated areal count data. The models consist of two components-one for the probability of any emergency department use and one for the number of emergency department visits given use. Through a hierarchical structure, the models incorporate both patient- and region-level predictors, as well as spatially and temporally correlated random effects for each model component. The random effects are assigned multivariate conditionally autoregressive priors, which induce dependence between the components and provide spatial and temporal smoothing across adjacent spatial units and time periods, resulting in improved inferences. To accommodate potential overdispersion, we consider a range of parametric specifications for the positive counts, including truncated negative binomial and generalized Poisson distributions. We adopt a Bayesian inferential approach, and posterior computation is handled conveniently within standard Bayesian software. Our results indicate that the negative binomial and generalized Poisson hurdle models vastly outperform the Poisson hurdle model, demonstrating that overdispersed hurdle models provide a useful approach to analyzing zero-inflated spatiotemporal data. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluating Consistency between Climate Model Output and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, A. J.; Cressie, N.; Teixeira, J.

2010-12-01

Like other scientific and engineering problems that involve physical modeling of complex systems, climate models can be evaluated and diagnosed by comparing their output to observations of similar quantities. Though the global remote sensing data record is relatively short by climate research standards, these data offer opportunities to evaluate model predictions in new ways. For example, remote sensing data are spatially and temporally dense enough to provide distributional information that goes beyond simple moments to allow quantification of temporal and spatial dependence structures. In this talk, we propose a new method for exploiting these rich data sets using a Bayesian paradigm. For a collection of climate models, we calculate posterior probabilities its members best represent the physical system each seeks to reproduce. The posterior probability is based on the likelihood that a chosen summary statistic, computed from observations, would be obtained when the model's output is considered as a realization from a stochastic process. By exploring how posterior probabilities change with different statistics, we may paint a more quantitative and complete picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the models relative to the observations. We demonstrate our method using model output from the CMIP archive, and observations from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder.

Towards Real-time, On-board, Hardware-Supported Sensor and Software Health Management for Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Rozier, Kristin Y.; Reinbacher, Thomas; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Mbaya, Timmy; Ippolito, Corey

2013-01-01

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) can only be deployed if they can effectively complete their missions and respond to failures and uncertain environmental conditions while maintaining safety with respect to other aircraft as well as humans and property on the ground. In this paper, we design a real-time, on-board system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components for detection and diagnosis of failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and/or software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on the- fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software due to instrumentation. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual data from the NASA Swift UAS, an experimental all-electric aircraft.

Scale invariance of temporal order discrimination using complex, naturalistic events

PubMed Central

Kwok, Sze Chai; Macaluso, Emiliano

2015-01-01

Recent demonstrations of scale invariance in cognitive domains prompted us to investigate whether a scale-free pattern might exist in retrieving the temporal order of events from episodic memory. We present four experiments using an encoding-retrieval paradigm with naturalistic stimuli (movies or video clips). Our studies show that temporal order judgement retrieval times were negatively correlated with the temporal separation between two events in the movie. This relation held, irrespective of whether temporal distances were on the order of tens of minutes (Exp 1−2) or just a few seconds (Exp 3−4). Using the SIMPLE model, we factored in the retention delays between encoding and retrieval (delays of 24 h, 15 min, 1.5–2.5 s, and 0.5 s for Exp 1–4, respectively) and computed a temporal similarity score for each trial. We found a positive relation between similarity and retrieval times; that is, the more temporally similar two events, the slower the retrieval of their temporal order. Using Bayesian analysis, we confirmed the equivalence of the RT/similarity relation across all experiments, which included a vast range of temporal distances and retention delays. These results provide evidence for scale invariance during the retrieval of temporal order of episodic memories. PMID:25909581

Fourier transform spectrometer controller for partitioned architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamas-Selicean, D.; Keymeulen, D.; Berisford, D.; Carlson, R.; Hand, K.; Pop, P.; Wadsworth, W.; Levy, R.

The current trend in spacecraft computing is to integrate applications of different criticality levels on the same platform using no separation. This approach increases the complexity of the development, verification and integration processes, with an impact on the whole system life cycle. Researchers at ESA and NASA advocated for the use of partitioned architecture to reduce this complexity. Partitioned architectures rely on platform mechanisms to provide robust temporal and spatial separation between applications. Such architectures have been successfully implemented in several industries, such as avionics and automotive. In this paper we investigate the challenges of developing and the benefits of integrating a scientific instrument, namely a Fourier Transform Spectrometer, in such a partitioned architecture.

Application of 3D Spatio-Temporal Data Modeling, Management, and Analysis in DB4GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuper, P. V.; Breunig, M.; Al-Doori, M.; Thomsen, A.

2016-10-01

Many of todaýs world wide challenges such as climate change, water supply and transport systems in cities or movements of crowds need spatio-temporal data to be examined in detail. Thus the number of examinations in 3D space dealing with geospatial objects moving in space and time or even changing their shapes in time will rapidly increase in the future. Prominent spatio-temporal applications are subsurface reservoir modeling, water supply after seawater desalination and the development of transport systems in mega cities. All of these applications generate large spatio-temporal data sets. However, the modeling, management and analysis of 3D geo-objects with changing shape and attributes in time still is a challenge for geospatial database architectures. In this article we describe the application of concepts for the modeling, management and analysis of 2.5D and 3D spatial plus 1D temporal objects implemented in DB4GeO, our service-oriented geospatial database architecture. An example application with spatio-temporal data of a landfill, near the city of Osnabrück in Germany demonstrates the usage of the concepts. Finally, an outlook on our future research focusing on new applications with big data analysis in three spatial plus one temporal dimension in the United Arab Emirates, especially the Dubai area, is given.

In situ genetic differentiation in a Hispaniolan lizard (Ameiva chrysolaema): a multilocus perspective.

PubMed

Gifford, Matthew E; Larson, Allan

2008-10-01

A previous phylogeographic study of mitochondrial haplotypes for the Hispaniolan lizard Ameiva chrysolaema revealed deep genetic structure associated with seawater inundation during the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene and evidence of subsequent population expansion into formerly inundated areas. We revisit hypotheses generated by our previous study using increased geographic sampling of populations and analysis of three nuclear markers (alpha-enolase intron 8, alpha-cardiac-actin intron 4, and beta-actin intron 3) in addition to mitochondrial haplotypes (ND2). Large genetic discontinuities correspond spatially and temporally with historical barriers to gene flow (sea inundations). NCPA cross-validation analysis and Bayesian multilocus analyses of divergence times (IMa and MCMCcoal) reveal two separate episodes of fragmentation associated with Pliocene and Pleistocene sea inundations, separating the species into historically separate Northern, East-Central, West-Central, and Southern population lineages. Multilocus Bayesian analysis using IMa indicates asymmetrical migration from the East-Central to the West-Central populations following secondary contact, consistent with expectations from the more pervasive sea inundation in the western region. The West-Central lineage has a genetic signature of population growth consistent with the expectation of geographic expansion into formerly inundated areas. Within each lineage, significant spatial genetic structure indicates isolation by distance at comparable temporal scales. This study adds to the growing body of evidence that vicariant speciation may be the prevailing source of lineage accumulation on oceanic islands. Thus, prior theories of island biogeography generally underestimate the role and temporal scale of intra-island vicariant processes.

Discriminative spatial-frequency-temporal feature extraction and classification of motor imagery EEG: An sparse regression and Weighted Naïve Bayesian Classifier-based approach.

PubMed

Miao, Minmin; Zeng, Hong; Wang, Aimin; Zhao, Changsen; Liu, Feixiang

2017-02-15

Common spatial pattern (CSP) is most widely used in motor imagery based brain-computer interface (BCI) systems. In conventional CSP algorithm, pairs of the eigenvectors corresponding to both extreme eigenvalues are selected to construct the optimal spatial filter. In addition, an appropriate selection of subject-specific time segments and frequency bands plays an important role in its successful application. This study proposes to optimize spatial-frequency-temporal patterns for discriminative feature extraction. Spatial optimization is implemented by channel selection and finding discriminative spatial filters adaptively on each time-frequency segment. A novel Discernibility of Feature Sets (DFS) criteria is designed for spatial filter optimization. Besides, discriminative features located in multiple time-frequency segments are selected automatically by the proposed sparse time-frequency segment common spatial pattern (STFSCSP) method which exploits sparse regression for significant features selection. Finally, a weight determined by the sparse coefficient is assigned for each selected CSP feature and we propose a Weighted Naïve Bayesian Classifier (WNBC) for classification. Experimental results on two public EEG datasets demonstrate that optimizing spatial-frequency-temporal patterns in a data-driven manner for discriminative feature extraction greatly improves the classification performance. The proposed method gives significantly better classification accuracies in comparison with several competing methods in the literature. The proposed approach is a promising candidate for future BCI systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Mikami, Satoshi; Saito, Kimiaki

2018-09-01

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 μSv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuselets: an agent based architecture for fusion of heterogeneous information and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyerer, Jürgen; Heizmann, Michael; Sander, Jennifer

2006-04-01

A new architecture for fusing information and data from heterogeneous sources is proposed. The approach takes criminalistics as a model. In analogy to the work of detectives, who attempt to investigate crimes, software agents are initiated that pursue clues and try to consolidate or to dismiss hypotheses. Like their human pendants, they can, if questions beyond their competences arise, consult expert agents. Within the context of a certain task, region, and time interval, specialized operations are applied to each relevant information source, e.g. IMINT, SIGINT, ACINT,..., HUMINT, data bases etc. in order to establish hit lists of first clues. Each clue is described by its pertaining facts, uncertainties, and dependencies in form of a local degree-of-belief (DoB) distribution in a Bayesian sense. For each clue an agent is initiated which cooperates with other agents and experts. Expert agents support to make use of different information sources. Consultations of experts, capable to access certain information sources, result in changes of the DoB of the pertaining clue. According to the significance of concentration of their DoB distribution clues are abandoned or pursued further to formulate task specific hypotheses. Communications between the agents serve to find out whether different clues belong to the same cause and thus can be put together. At the end of the investigation process, the different hypotheses are evaluated by a jury and a final report is created that constitutes the fusion result. The approach proposed avoids calculating global DoB distributions by adopting a local Bayesian approximation and thus reduces the complexity of the exact problem essentially. Different information sources are transformed into DoB distributions using the maximum entropy paradigm and considering known facts as constraints. Nominal, ordinal and cardinal quantities can be treated within this framework equally. The architecture is scalable by tailoring the number of agents according to the available computer resources, to the priority of tasks, and to the maximum duration of the fusion process. Furthermore, the architecture allows cooperative work of human and automated agents and experts, as long as not all subtasks can be accomplished automatically.

A task control architecture for autonomous robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmons, Reid; Mitchell, Tom

1990-01-01

An architecture is presented for controlling robots that have multiple tasks, operate in dynamic domains, and require a fair degree of autonomy. The architecture is built on several layers of functionality, including a distributed communication layer, a behavior layer for querying sensors, expanding goals, and executing commands, and a task level for managing the temporal aspects of planning and achieving goals, coordinating tasks, allocating resources, monitoring, and recovering from errors. Application to a legged planetary rover and an indoor mobile manipulator is described.

Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data using transfer functions.

PubMed

Quirós, Alicia; Diez, Raquel Montes; Wilson, Simon P

2010-09-01

This research describes a new Bayesian spatiotemporal model to analyse BOLD fMRI studies. In the temporal dimension, we describe the shape of the hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a transfer function model. The spatial continuity and local homogeneity of the evoked responses are modelled by a Gaussian Markov random field prior on the parameter indicating activations. The proposal constitutes an extension of the spatiotemporal model presented in a previous approach [Quirós, A., Montes Diez, R. and Gamerman, D., 2010. Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data, Neuroimage, 49: 442-456], offering more flexibility in the estimation of the HRF and computational advantages in the resulting MCMC algorithm. Simulations from the model are performed in order to ascertain the performance of the sampling scheme and the ability of the posterior to estimate model parameters, as well as to check the model sensitivity to signal to noise ratio. Results are shown on synthetic data and on a real data set from a block-design fMRI experiment. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel approach for pilot error detection using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Saada, Mohamad; Meng, Qinggang; Huang, Tingwen

2014-06-01

In the last decade Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) have become one type of the most attractive probabilistic modelling framework extensions of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for working under uncertainties from a temporal perspective. Despite this popularity not many researchers have attempted to study the use of these networks in anomaly detection or the implications of data anomalies on the outcome of such models. An abnormal change in the modelled environment's data at a given time, will cause a trailing chain effect on data of all related environment variables in current and consecutive time slices. Albeit this effect fades with time, it still can have an ill effect on the outcome of such models. In this paper we propose an algorithm for pilot error detection, using DBNs as the modelling framework for learning and detecting anomalous data. We base our experiments on the actions of an aircraft pilot, and a flight simulator is created for running the experiments. The proposed anomaly detection algorithm has achieved good results in detecting pilot errors and effects on the whole system.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

The development of the rhizosphere: simulation of root exudation for two contrasting exudates: citrate and mucilage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Cheng; Bol, Roland; Vetterlein, Doris; Vanderborght, Jan; Schnepf, Andrea

2017-04-01

Different types of root exudates and their effect on soil/rhizosphere properties have received a lot of attention. Since their influence of rhizosphere properties and processes depends on their concentration in the soil, the assessment of the spatial-temporal exudate concentration distribution around roots is of key importance for understanding the functioning of the rhizosphere. Different root systems have different root architectures. Different types of root exudates diffuse in the rhizosphere with different diffusion coefficient. Both of them are responsible for the dynamics of exudate concentration distribution in the rhizosphere. Hence, simulations of root exudation involving four kinds of plant root systems (Vicia faba, Lupinus albus, Triticum aestivum and Zea mays) and two kinds of root exudates (citrate and mucilage) were conducted. We consider a simplified root architecture where each root is represented by a straight line. Assuming that root tips move at a constant velocity and that mucilage transport is linear, concentration distributions can be obtained from a convolution of the analytical solution of the transport equation in a stationary flow field for an instantaneous point source injection with the spatial-temporal distribution of the source strength. By coupling the analytical equation with a root growth model that delivers the spatial-temporal source term, we simulated exudate concentration distributions for citrate and mucilage with MATLAB. From the simulation results, we inferred the following information about the rhizosphere: (a) the dynamics of the root architecture development is the main effect of exudate distribution in the root zone; (b) a steady rhizosphere with constant width is more likely to develop for individual roots when the diffusion coefficient is small. The simulations suggest that rhizosphere development depends in the following way on the root and exudate properties: the dynamics of the root architecture result in various development patterns of the rhizosphere. Meanwhile, Results improve our understanding of the impact of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of exudate input on rhizosphere development for different root system types and substances. In future work, we will use the simulation tool to infer critical parameters that determine the spatial-temporal extent of the rhizosphere from experimental data.

Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

2015-12-01

A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

Atmospheric Tracer Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasibhatla, P.

2004-12-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing emphasis on the use of Bayesian statistical estimation techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric trace gas sources and sinks. The applications have been varied in terms of the particular species of interest, as well as in terms of the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated fluxes. However, one common characteristic has been the use of relatively simple statistical models for describing the measurement and chemical transport model error statistics and prior source statistics. For example, multivariate normal probability distribution functions (pdfs) are commonly used to model these quantities and inverse source estimates are derived for fixed values of pdf paramaters. While the advantage of this approach is that closed form analytical solutions for the a posteriori pdfs of interest are available, it is worth exploring Bayesian analysis approaches which allow for a more general treatment of error and prior source statistics. Here, we present an application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to an atmospheric tracer inversion problem to demonstrate how more gereral statistical models for errors can be incorporated into the analysis in a relatively straightforward manner. The MCMC approach to Bayesian analysis, which has found wide application in a variety of fields, is a statistical simulation approach that involves computing moments of interest of the a posteriori pdf by efficiently sampling this pdf. The specific inverse problem that we focus on is the annual mean CO2 source/sink estimation problem considered by the TransCom3 project. TransCom3 was a collaborative effort involving various modeling groups and followed a common modeling and analysis protocoal. As such, this problem provides a convenient case study to demonstrate the applicability of the MCMC methodology to atmospheric tracer source/sink estimation problems.

Tracing the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages: a mitogenomic perspective.

PubMed

Yu, Jihyun; Nam, Bo-Hye; Yoon, Joon; Kim, Eun Bae; Park, Jung Youn; Kim, Heebal; Yoon, Sook Hee

2017-12-01

To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of endangered fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) within the baleen whale (Mysticeti) lineages, we analyzed 148 published mitochondrial genome sequences of baleen whales. We used a Bayesian coalescent approach as well as Bayesian inferences and maximum likelihood methods. The results showed that the fin whales had a single maternal origin, and that there is a significant correlation between geographic location and evolution of global fin whales. The most recent common female ancestor of this species lived approximately 9.88 million years ago (Mya). Here, North Pacific fin whales first appeared about 7.48 Mya, followed by a subsequent divergence in Southern Hemisphere approximately 6.63 Mya and North Atlantic about 4.42 Mya. Relatively recently, approximately 1.76 and 1.42 Mya, there were two additional occurrences of North Pacific populations; one originated from the Southern Hemisphere and the other from an uncertain location. The evolutionary rate of this species was 1.002 × 10 -3 substitutions/site/My. Our Bayesian skyline plot illustrates that the fin whale population has the rapid expansion event since ~ 2.5 Mya, during the Quaternary glaciation stage. Additionally, this study indicates that the fin whale has a sister group relationship with humpback whale (Meganoptera novaeangliae) within the baleen whale lineages. Of the 16 genomic regions, NADH5 showed the most powerful signal for baleen whale phylogenetics. Interestingly, fin whales have 16 species-specific amino acid residues in eight mitochondrial genes: NADH2, COX2, COX3, ATPase6, ATPase8, NADH4, NADH5, and Cytb.

A practical Bayesian stepped wedge design for community-based cluster-randomized clinical trials: The British Columbia Telehealth Trial.

PubMed

Cunanan, Kristen M; Carlin, Bradley P; Peterson, Kevin A

2016-12-01

Many clinical trial designs are impractical for community-based clinical intervention trials. Stepped wedge trial designs provide practical advantages, but few descriptions exist of their clinical implementational features, statistical design efficiencies, and limitations. Enhance efficiency of stepped wedge trial designs by evaluating the impact of design characteristics on statistical power for the British Columbia Telehealth Trial. The British Columbia Telehealth Trial is a community-based, cluster-randomized, controlled clinical trial in rural and urban British Columbia. To determine the effect of an Internet-based telehealth intervention on healthcare utilization, 1000 subjects with an existing diagnosis of congestive heart failure or type 2 diabetes will be enrolled from 50 clinical practices. Hospital utilization is measured using a composite of disease-specific hospital admissions and emergency visits. The intervention comprises online telehealth data collection and counseling provided to support a disease-specific action plan developed by the primary care provider. The planned intervention is sequentially introduced across all participating practices. We adopt a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo-driven statistical approach, wherein we use simulation to determine the effect of cluster size, sample size, and crossover interval choice on type I error and power to evaluate differences in hospital utilization. For our Bayesian stepped wedge trial design, simulations suggest moderate decreases in power when crossover intervals from control to intervention are reduced from every 3 to 2 weeks, and dramatic decreases in power as the numbers of clusters decrease. Power and type I error performance were not notably affected by the addition of nonzero cluster effects or a temporal trend in hospitalization intensity. Stepped wedge trial designs that intervene in small clusters across longer periods can provide enhanced power to evaluate comparative effectiveness, while offering practical implementation advantages in geographic stratification, temporal change, use of existing data, and resource distribution. Current population estimates were used; however, models may not reflect actual event rates during the trial. In addition, temporal or spatial heterogeneity can bias treatment effect estimates. © The Author(s) 2016.

Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Waller, Lance A; Schieb, Linda J; Greer, Sophia; Casper, Michele

2015-05-01

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-range dismount activity classification: LODAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagic, Denis; Peskoe, Jacob; Liu, Fang; Cuevas, Manuel; Freeman, Andrew M.; Rhodes, Bradley J.

2014-06-01

Continuous classification of dismount types (including gender, age, ethnicity) and their activities (such as walking, running) evolving over space and time is challenging. Limited sensor resolution (often exacerbated as a function of platform standoff distance) and clutter from shadows in dense target environments, unfavorable environmental conditions, and the normal properties of real data all contribute to the challenge. The unique and innovative aspect of our approach is a synthesis of multimodal signal processing with incremental non-parametric, hierarchical Bayesian machine learning methods to create a new kind of target classification architecture. This architecture is designed from the ground up to optimally exploit correlations among the multiple sensing modalities (multimodal data fusion) and rapidly and continuously learns (online self-tuning) patterns of distinct classes of dismounts given little a priori information. This increases classification performance in the presence of challenges posed by anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) sensing. To fuse multimodal features, Long-range Dismount Activity Classification (LODAC) develops a novel statistical information theoretic approach for multimodal data fusion that jointly models multimodal data (i.e., a probabilistic model for cross-modal signal generation) and discovers the critical cross-modal correlations by identifying components (features) with maximal mutual information (MI) which is efficiently estimated using non-parametric entropy models. LODAC develops a generic probabilistic pattern learning and classification framework based on a new class of hierarchical Bayesian learning algorithms for efficiently discovering recurring patterns (classes of dismounts) in multiple simultaneous time series (sensor modalities) at multiple levels of feature granularity.

General Temporal Knowledge for Planning and Data Mining

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robert; Khatib, Lina

2001-01-01

We consider the architecture of systems that combine temporal planning and plan execution and introduce a layer of temporal reasoning that potential1y improves both the communication between humans and such systems, and the performance of the temporal planner itself. In particular, this additional layer simultaneously supports more flexibility in specifying and maintaining temporal constraints on plans within an uncertain and changing execution environment, and the ability to understand and trace the progress of plan execution. It is shown how a representation based on single set of abstractions of temporal information can be used to characterize the reasoning underlying plan generation and execution interpretation. The complexity of such reasoning is discussed.

PANDA: Protein function prediction using domain architecture and affinity propagation.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Zhao, Chenguang; Wang, Yiheng; Sun, Zheng; Wang, Nan

2018-02-22

We developed PANDA (Propagation of Affinity and Domain Architecture) to predict protein functions in the format of Gene Ontology (GO) terms. PANDA at first executes profile-profile alignment algorithm to search against PfamA, KOG, COG, and SwissProt databases, and then launches PSI-BLAST against UniProt for homologue search. PANDA integrates a domain architecture inference algorithm based on the Bayesian statistics that calculates the probability of having a GO term. All the candidate GO terms are pooled and filtered based on Z-score. After that, the remaining GO terms are clustered using an affinity propagation algorithm based on the GO directed acyclic graph, followed by a second round of filtering on the clusters of GO terms. We benchmarked the performance of all the baseline predictors PANDA integrates and also for every pooling and filtering step of PANDA. It can be found that PANDA achieves better performances in terms of area under the curve for precision and recall compared to the baseline predictors. PANDA can be accessed from http://dna.cs.miami.edu/PANDA/ .

Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

2005-05-01

Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity, reducing the amount of engineering intervention. We discuss the benefits of this approach, especially improved repeatability and traceability of the learning process, and quantification of uncertainty in decisions made. We also consider the problems associated with this approach, especially in detailed construction of network topology, validation of the Bayesian network and the recipes it generates, and issues arising from the integration of a Bayesian network with a complex multithreaded application; these primarily relate to maintaining Bayesian network and system architecture integrity.

Parallel Ada benchmarks for the SVMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collard, Philippe E.

1990-01-01

The use of parallel processing paradigm to design and develop faster and more reliable computers appear to clearly mark the future of information processing. NASA started the development of such an architecture: the Spaceborne VHSIC Multi-processor System (SVMS). Ada will be one of the languages used to program the SVMS. One of the unique characteristics of Ada is that it supports parallel processing at the language level through the tasking constructs. It is important for the SVMS project team to assess how efficiently the SVMS architecture will be implemented, as well as how efficiently Ada environment will be ported to the SVMS. AUTOCLASS II, a Bayesian classifier written in Common Lisp, was selected as one of the benchmarks for SVMS configurations. The purpose of the R and D effort was to provide the SVMS project team with the version of AUTOCLASS II, written in Ada, that would make use of Ada tasking constructs as much as possible so as to constitute a suitable benchmark. Additionally, a set of programs was developed that would measure Ada tasking efficiency on parallel architectures as well as determine the critical parameters influencing tasking efficiency. All this was designed to provide the SVMS project team with a set of suitable tools in the development of the SVMS architecture.

Duration estimates within a modality are integrated sub-optimally

PubMed Central

Cai, Ming Bo; Eagleman, David M.

2015-01-01

Perceived duration can be influenced by various properties of sensory stimuli. For example, visual stimuli of higher temporal frequency are perceived to last longer than those of lower temporal frequency. How does the brain form a representation of duration when each of two simultaneously presented stimuli influences perceived duration in different way? To answer this question, we investigated the perceived duration of a pair of dynamic visual stimuli of different temporal frequencies in comparison to that of a single visual stimulus of either low or high temporal frequency. We found that the duration representation of simultaneously occurring visual stimuli is best described by weighting the estimates of duration based on each individual stimulus. However, the weighting performance deviates from the prediction of statistically optimal integration. In addition, we provided a Bayesian account to explain a difference in the apparent sensitivity of the psychometric curves introduced by the order in which the two stimuli are displayed in a two-alternative forced-choice task. PMID:26321965

A Survey of Methods for Computing Best Estimates of Endoatmospheric and Exoatmospheric Trajectories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernard, William P.

2018-01-01

Beginning with the mathematical prediction of planetary orbits in the early seventeenth century up through the most recent developments in sensor fusion methods, many techniques have emerged that can be employed on the problem of endo and exoatmospheric trajectory estimation. Although early methods were ad hoc, the twentieth century saw the emergence of many systematic approaches to estimation theory that produced a wealth of useful techniques. The broad genesis of estimation theory has resulted in an equally broad array of mathematical principles, methods and vocabulary. Among the fundamental ideas and methods that are briefly touched on are batch and sequential processing, smoothing, estimation, and prediction, sensor fusion, sensor fusion architectures, data association, Bayesian and non Bayesian filtering, the family of Kalman filters, models of the dynamics of the phases of a rocket's flight, and asynchronous, delayed, and asequent data. Along the way, a few trajectory estimation issues are addressed and much of the vocabulary is defined.

Fuzzy Intervals for Designing Structural Signature: An Application to Graphic Symbol Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luqman, Muhammad Muzzamil; Delalandre, Mathieu; Brouard, Thierry; Ramel, Jean-Yves; Lladós, Josep

The motivation behind our work is to present a new methodology for symbol recognition. The proposed method employs a structural approach for representing visual associations in symbols and a statistical classifier for recognition. We vectorize a graphic symbol, encode its topological and geometrical information by an attributed relational graph and compute a signature from this structural graph. We have addressed the sensitivity of structural representations to noise, by using data adapted fuzzy intervals. The joint probability distribution of signatures is encoded by a Bayesian network, which serves as a mechanism for pruning irrelevant features and choosing a subset of interesting features from structural signatures of underlying symbol set. The Bayesian network is deployed in a supervised learning scenario for recognizing query symbols. The method has been evaluated for robustness against degradations & deformations on pre-segmented 2D linear architectural & electronic symbols from GREC databases, and for its recognition abilities on symbols with context noise i.e. cropped symbols.

Assessing the social and environmental determinants of pertussis epidemics in Queensland, Australia: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis.

PubMed

Huang, X; Lambert, S; Lau, C; Soares Magalhaes, R J; Marquess, J; Rajmokan, M; Milinovich, G; Hu, W

2017-04-01

Pertussis epidemics have displayed substantial spatial heterogeneity in countries with high socioeconomic conditions and high vaccine coverage. This study aims to investigate the relationship between pertussis risk and socio-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation underlying pertussis infection. We obtained daily case numbers of pertussis notifications from Queensland Health, Australia by postal area, for the period January 2006 to December 2012. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly pertussis incidence and socio-environmental factors. The socio-environmental factors included monthly mean minimum temperature (MIT), monthly mean vapour pressure (VAP), Queensland school calendar pattern (SCP), and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA). An increase in pertussis incidence was observed from 2006 to 2010 and a slight decrease from 2011 to 2012. Spatial analyses showed pertussis incidence across Queensland postal area to be low and more spatially homogeneous during 2006-2008; incidence was higher and more spatially heterogeneous after 2009. The results also showed that the average decrease in monthly pertussis incidence was 3·1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 1·3-4·8] for each 1 °C increase in monthly MIT, while average increase in monthly pertussis incidences were 6·2% (95% CrI 0·4-12·4) and 2% (95% CrI 1-3) for SCP periods and for each 10-unit increase in SEIFA, respectively. This study demonstrated that pertussis transmission is significantly associated with MIT, SEIFA, and SCP. Mapping derived from this work highlights the potential for future investigation and areas for focusing future control strategies.

Stochastic extreme downscaling model for an assessment of changes in rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves over South Korea using multiple regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lima, Carlos H. R.

2017-10-01

A conditional copula function based downscaling model in a fully Bayesian framework is developed in this study to evaluate future changes in intensity-duration frequency (IDF) curves in South Korea. The model incorporates a quantile mapping approach for bias correction while integrated Bayesian inference allows accounting for parameter uncertainties. The proposed approach is used to temporally downscale expected changes in daily rainfall, inferred from multiple CORDEX-RCMs based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, into sub-daily temporal scales. Among the CORDEX-RCMs, a noticeable increase in rainfall intensity is observed in the HadGem3-RA (9%), RegCM (28%), and SNU_WRF (13%) on average, whereas no noticeable changes are observed in the GRIMs (-2%) for the period 2020-2050. More specifically, a 5-30% increase in rainfall intensity is expected in all of the CORDEX-RCMs for 50-year return values under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Uncertainty in simulated rainfall intensity gradually decreases toward the longer durations, which is largely associated with the enhanced strength of the relationship with the 24-h annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). A primary advantage of the proposed model is that projected changes in future rainfall intensities are well preserved.

Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach.

PubMed

Zou, Cunlu; Ladroue, Christophe; Guo, Shuixia; Feng, Jianfeng

2010-06-21

Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins). For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

Soil moisture mapping using Sentinel 1 images: the proposed approach and its preliminary validation carried out in view of an operational product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paloscia, S.; Pettinato, S.; Santi, E.; Pierdicca, N.; Pulvirenti, L.; Notarnicola, C.; Pace, G.; Reppucci, A.

2011-11-01

The main objective of this research is to develop, test and validate a soil moisture (SMC)) algorithm for the GMES Sentinel-1 characteristics, within the framework of an ESA project. The SMC product, to be generated from Sentinel-1 data, requires an algorithm able to process operationally in near-real-time and deliver the product to the GMES services within 3 hours from observations. Two different complementary approaches have been proposed: an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which represented the best compromise between retrieval accuracy and processing time, thus allowing compliance with the timeliness requirements and a Bayesian Multi-temporal approach, allowing an increase of the retrieval accuracy, especially in case where little ancillary data are available, at the cost of computational efficiency, taking advantage of the frequent revisit time achieved by Sentinel-1. The algorithm was validated in several test areas in Italy, US and Australia, and finally in Spain with a 'blind' validation. The Multi-temporal Bayesian algorithm was validated in Central Italy. The validation results are in all cases very much in line with the requirements. However, the blind validation results were penalized by the availability of only VV polarization SAR images and MODIS lowresolution NDVI, although the RMS is slightly > 4%.

High-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistics

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Sudipto

2017-01-01

With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial locations and time points. Over the last decade, hierarchical spatiotemporal process models have become widely deployed statistical tools for researchers to better understand the complex nature of spatial and temporal variability. However, fitting hierarchical spatiotemporal models often involves expensive matrix computations with complexity increasing in cubic order for the number of spatial locations and temporal points. This renders such models unfeasible for large data sets. This article offers a focused review of two methods for constructing well-defined highly scalable spatiotemporal stochastic processes. Both these processes can be used as “priors” for spatiotemporal random fields. The first approach constructs a low-rank process operating on a lower-dimensional subspace. The second approach constructs a Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) that ensures sparse precision matrices for its finite realizations. Both processes can be exploited as a scalable prior embedded within a rich hierarchical modeling framework to deliver full Bayesian inference. These approaches can be described as model-based solutions for big spatiotemporal datasets. The models ensure that the algorithmic complexity has ~ n floating point operations (flops), where n the number of spatial locations (per iteration). We compare these methods and provide some insight into their methodological underpinnings. PMID:29391920

Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences

PubMed Central

Lindén, Henrik; Lansner, Anders

2016-01-01

Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model’s feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx). We show that the learning and speed of sequence replay depends on a confluence of biophysically relevant parameters including stimulus duration, level of background noise, ratio of synaptic currents, and strengths of short-term depression and adaptation. Moreover, sequence elements are shown to flexibly participate multiple times in the sequence, suggesting that spiking attractor networks of this type can support an efficient combinatorial code. The model provides a principled approach towards understanding how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate hetero-associative learning in unison. PMID:27213810

The discounting model selector: Statistical software for delay discounting applications.

PubMed

Gilroy, Shawn P; Franck, Christopher T; Hantula, Donald A

2017-05-01

Original, open-source computer software was developed and validated against established delay discounting methods in the literature. The software executed approximate Bayesian model selection methods from user-supplied temporal discounting data and computed the effective delay 50 (ED50) from the best performing model. Software was custom-designed to enable behavior analysts to conveniently apply recent statistical methods to temporal discounting data with the aid of a graphical user interface (GUI). The results of independent validation of the approximate Bayesian model selection methods indicated that the program provided results identical to that of the original source paper and its methods. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 50,000) confirmed that true model was selected most often in each setting. Simulation code and data for this study were posted to an online repository for use by other researchers. The model selection approach was applied to three existing delay discounting data sets from the literature in addition to the data from the source paper. Comparisons of model selected ED50 were consistent with traditional indices of discounting. Conceptual issues related to the development and use of computer software by behavior analysts and the opportunities afforded by free and open-sourced software are discussed and a review of possible expansions of this software are provided. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

High-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistics.

PubMed

Banerjee, Sudipto

2017-06-01

With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial locations and time points. Over the last decade, hierarchical spatiotemporal process models have become widely deployed statistical tools for researchers to better understand the complex nature of spatial and temporal variability. However, fitting hierarchical spatiotemporal models often involves expensive matrix computations with complexity increasing in cubic order for the number of spatial locations and temporal points. This renders such models unfeasible for large data sets. This article offers a focused review of two methods for constructing well-defined highly scalable spatiotemporal stochastic processes. Both these processes can be used as "priors" for spatiotemporal random fields. The first approach constructs a low-rank process operating on a lower-dimensional subspace. The second approach constructs a Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) that ensures sparse precision matrices for its finite realizations. Both processes can be exploited as a scalable prior embedded within a rich hierarchical modeling framework to deliver full Bayesian inference. These approaches can be described as model-based solutions for big spatiotemporal datasets. The models ensure that the algorithmic complexity has ~ n floating point operations (flops), where n the number of spatial locations (per iteration). We compare these methods and provide some insight into their methodological underpinnings.

Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

Central tendency effects in time interval reproduction in autism

PubMed Central

Karaminis, Themelis; Cicchini, Guido Marco; Neil, Louise; Cappagli, Giulia; Aagten-Murphy, David; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Central tendency, the tendency of judgements of quantities (lengths, durations etc.) to gravitate towards their mean, is one of the most robust perceptual effects. A Bayesian account has recently suggested that central tendency reflects the integration of noisy sensory estimates with prior knowledge representations of a mean stimulus, serving to improve performance. The process is flexible, so prior knowledge is weighted more heavily when sensory estimates are imprecise, requiring more integration to reduce noise. In this study we measure central tendency in autism to evaluate a recent theoretical hypothesis suggesting that autistic perception relies less on prior knowledge representations than typical perception. If true, autistic children should show reduced central tendency than theoretically predicted from their temporal resolution. We tested autistic and age- and ability-matched typical children in two child-friendly tasks: (1) a time interval reproduction task, measuring central tendency in the temporal domain; and (2) a time discrimination task, assessing temporal resolution. Central tendency reduced with age in typical development, while temporal resolution improved. Autistic children performed far worse in temporal discrimination than the matched controls. Computational simulations suggested that central tendency was much less in autistic children than predicted by theoretical modelling, given their poor temporal resolution. PMID:27349722

Midday Depression vs. Midday Peak in Diurnal Light Interception: Contrasting Patterns at Crown and Leaf Scales in a Tropical Evergreen Tree.

PubMed

Ventre-Lespiaucq, Agustina; Flanagan, Nicola S; Ospina-Calderón, Nhora H; Delgado, Juan A; Escudero, Adrián

2018-01-01

Crown architecture usually is heterogeneous as a result of foraging in spatially and temporally heterogeneous light environments. Ecologists are only beginning to identify the importance of temporal heterogeneity for light acquisition in plants, especially at the diurnal scale. Crown architectural heterogeneity often leads to a diurnal variation in light interception. However, maximizing light interception during midday may not be an optimal strategy in environments with excess light. Instead, long-lived plants are expected to show crown architectures and leaf positions that meet the contrasting needs of light interception and avoidance of excess light on a diurnal basis. We expected a midday depression in the diurnal course of light interception both at the whole-crown and leaf scales, as a strategy to avoid the interception of excessive irradiance. We tested this hypothesis in a population of guava trees ( Psidium guajava L.) growing in an open tropical grassland. We quantified three crown architectural traits: intra-individual heterogeneity in foliage clumping, crown openness, and leaf position angles. We estimated the diurnal course of light interception at the crown scale using hemispheric photographs, and at the leaf scale using the cosine of solar incidence. Crowns showed a midday depression in light interception, while leaves showed a midday peak. These contrasting patterns were related to architectural traits. At the crown scale, the midday depression of light interception was linked to a greater crown openness and foliage clumping in crown tops than in the lateral parts of the crown. At the leaf scale, an average inclination angle of 45° led to the midday peak in light interception, but with a huge among-leaf variation in position angles. The mismatch in diurnal course of light interception at crown and leaf scales can indicate that different processes are being optimized at each scale. These findings suggest that the diurnal course of light interception may be an important dimension of the resource acquisition strategies of long-lived woody plants. Using a temporal approach as the one applied here may improve our understanding of the diversity of crown architectures found across and within environments.

Midday Depression vs. Midday Peak in Diurnal Light Interception: Contrasting Patterns at Crown and Leaf Scales in a Tropical Evergreen Tree

PubMed Central

Ventre-Lespiaucq, Agustina; Flanagan, Nicola S.; Ospina-Calderón, Nhora H.; Delgado, Juan A.; Escudero, Adrián

2018-01-01

Crown architecture usually is heterogeneous as a result of foraging in spatially and temporally heterogeneous light environments. Ecologists are only beginning to identify the importance of temporal heterogeneity for light acquisition in plants, especially at the diurnal scale. Crown architectural heterogeneity often leads to a diurnal variation in light interception. However, maximizing light interception during midday may not be an optimal strategy in environments with excess light. Instead, long-lived plants are expected to show crown architectures and leaf positions that meet the contrasting needs of light interception and avoidance of excess light on a diurnal basis. We expected a midday depression in the diurnal course of light interception both at the whole-crown and leaf scales, as a strategy to avoid the interception of excessive irradiance. We tested this hypothesis in a population of guava trees (Psidium guajava L.) growing in an open tropical grassland. We quantified three crown architectural traits: intra-individual heterogeneity in foliage clumping, crown openness, and leaf position angles. We estimated the diurnal course of light interception at the crown scale using hemispheric photographs, and at the leaf scale using the cosine of solar incidence. Crowns showed a midday depression in light interception, while leaves showed a midday peak. These contrasting patterns were related to architectural traits. At the crown scale, the midday depression of light interception was linked to a greater crown openness and foliage clumping in crown tops than in the lateral parts of the crown. At the leaf scale, an average inclination angle of 45° led to the midday peak in light interception, but with a huge among-leaf variation in position angles. The mismatch in diurnal course of light interception at crown and leaf scales can indicate that different processes are being optimized at each scale. These findings suggest that the diurnal course of light interception may be an important dimension of the resource acquisition strategies of long-lived woody plants. Using a temporal approach as the one applied here may improve our understanding of the diversity of crown architectures found across and within environments. PMID:29904391

Application of temporal LNC logic in artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamek, Marek; Mulawka, Jan

2016-09-01

This paper presents the temporal logic inference engine developed in our university. It is an attempt to demonstrate implementation and practical application of temporal logic LNC developed in Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw.1 The paper describes the fundamentals of LNC logic, architecture and implementation of inference engine. The practical application is shown by providing the solution for popular in Artificial Intelligence problem of Missionaries and Cannibals in terms of LNC logic. Both problem formulation and inference engine are described in details.

Multi-agent based control of large-scale complex systems employing distributed dynamic inference engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Daili

Increasing societal demand for automation has led to considerable efforts to control large-scale complex systems, especially in the area of autonomous intelligent control methods. The control system of a large-scale complex system needs to satisfy four system level requirements: robustness, flexibility, reusability, and scalability. Corresponding to the four system level requirements, there arise four major challenges. First, it is difficult to get accurate and complete information. Second, the system may be physically highly distributed. Third, the system evolves very quickly. Fourth, emergent global behaviors of the system can be caused by small disturbances at the component level. The Multi-Agent Based Control (MABC) method as an implementation of distributed intelligent control has been the focus of research since the 1970s, in an effort to solve the above-mentioned problems in controlling large-scale complex systems. However, to the author's best knowledge, all MABC systems for large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties are problem-specific and thus difficult to extend to other domains or larger systems. This situation is partly due to the control architecture of multiple agents being determined by agent to agent coupling and interaction mechanisms. Therefore, the research objective of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive, generalized framework for the control system design of general large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties, with the focus on distributed control architecture design and distributed inference engine design. A Hybrid Multi-Agent Based Control (HyMABC) architecture is proposed by combining hierarchical control architecture and module control architecture with logical replication rings. First, it decomposes a complex system hierarchically; second, it combines the components in the same level as a module, and then designs common interfaces for all of the components in the same module; third, replications are made for critical agents and are organized into logical rings. This architecture maintains clear guidelines for complexity decomposition and also increases the robustness of the whole system. Multiple Sectioned Dynamic Bayesian Networks (MSDBNs) as a distributed dynamic probabilistic inference engine, can be embedded into the control architecture to handle uncertainties of general large-scale complex systems. MSDBNs decomposes a large knowledge-based system into many agents. Each agent holds its partial perspective of a large problem domain by representing its knowledge as a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). Each agent accesses local evidence from its corresponding local sensors and communicates with other agents through finite message passing. If the distributed agents can be organized into a tree structure, satisfying the running intersection property and d-sep set requirements, globally consistent inferences are achievable in a distributed way. By using different frequencies for local DBN agent belief updating and global system belief updating, it balances the communication cost with the global consistency of inferences. In this dissertation, a fully factorized Boyen-Koller (BK) approximation algorithm is used for local DBN agent belief updating, and the static Junction Forest Linkage Tree (JFLT) algorithm is used for global system belief updating. MSDBNs assume a static structure and a stable communication network for the whole system. However, for a real system, sub-Bayesian networks as nodes could be lost, and the communication network could be shut down due to partial damage in the system. Therefore, on-line and automatic MSDBNs structure formation is necessary for making robust state estimations and increasing survivability of the whole system. A Distributed Spanning Tree Optimization (DSTO) algorithm, a Distributed D-Sep Set Satisfaction (DDSSS) algorithm, and a Distributed Running Intersection Satisfaction (DRIS) algorithm are proposed in this dissertation. Combining these three distributed algorithms and a Distributed Belief Propagation (DBP) algorithm in MSDBNs makes state estimations robust to partial damage in the whole system. Combining the distributed control architecture design and the distributed inference engine design leads to a process of control system design for a general large-scale complex system. As applications of the proposed methodology, the control system design of a simplified ship chilled water system and a notional ship chilled water system have been demonstrated step by step. Simulation results not only show that the proposed methodology gives a clear guideline for control system design for general large-scale complex systems with dynamic and uncertain environment, but also indicate that the combination of MSDBNs and HyMABC can provide excellent performance for controlling general large-scale complex systems.

Moving in time: Bayesian causal inference explains movement coordination to auditory beats

PubMed Central

Elliott, Mark T.; Wing, Alan M.; Welchman, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Many everyday skilled actions depend on moving in time with signals that are embedded in complex auditory streams (e.g. musical performance, dancing or simply holding a conversation). Such behaviour is apparently effortless; however, it is not known how humans combine auditory signals to support movement production and coordination. Here, we test how participants synchronize their movements when there are potentially conflicting auditory targets to guide their actions. Participants tapped their fingers in time with two simultaneously presented metronomes of equal tempo, but differing in phase and temporal regularity. Synchronization therefore depended on integrating the two timing cues into a single-event estimate or treating the cues as independent and thereby selecting one signal over the other. We show that a Bayesian inference process explains the situations in which participants choose to integrate or separate signals, and predicts motor timing errors. Simulations of this causal inference process demonstrate that this model provides a better description of the data than other plausible models. Our findings suggest that humans exploit a Bayesian inference process to control movement timing in situations where the origin of auditory signals needs to be resolved. PMID:24850915

A Bayesian state-space approach for damage detection and classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzunic, Zoran; Chen, Justin G.; Mobahi, Hossein; Büyüköztürk, Oral; Fisher, John W.

2017-11-01

The problem of automatic damage detection in civil structures is complex and requires a system that can interpret collected sensor data into meaningful information. We apply our recently developed switching Bayesian model for dependency analysis to the problems of damage detection and classification. The model relies on a state-space approach that accounts for noisy measurement processes and missing data, which also infers the statistical temporal dependency between measurement locations signifying the potential flow of information within the structure. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to simultaneously infer the latent states, parameters of the state dynamics, the dependence graph, and any changes in behavior. By employing a fully Bayesian approach, we are able to characterize uncertainty in these variables via their posterior distribution and provide probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of damage or a specific damage scenario. We also implement a single class classification method which is more realistic for most real world situations where training data for a damaged structure is not available. We demonstrate the methodology with experimental test data from a laboratory model structure and accelerometer data from a real world structure during different environmental and excitation conditions.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling. PMID:22013891

Quantification of downscaled precipitation uncertainties via Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nury, A. H.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Prediction of precipitation from global climate model (GCM) outputs remains critical to decision-making in water-stressed regions. In this regard, downscaling of GCM output has been a useful tool for analysing future hydro-climatological states. Several downscaling approaches have been developed for precipitation downscaling, including those using dynamical or statistical downscaling methods. Frequently, outputs from dynamical downscaling are not readily transferable across regions for significant methodical and computational difficulties. Statistical downscaling approaches provide a flexible and efficient alternative, providing hydro-climatological outputs across multiple temporal and spatial scales in many locations. However these approaches are subject to significant uncertainty, arising due to uncertainty in the downscaled model parameters and in the use of different reanalysis products for inferring appropriate model parameters. Consequently, these will affect the performance of simulation in catchment scale. This study develops a Bayesian framework for modelling downscaled daily precipitation from GCM outputs. This study aims to introduce uncertainties in downscaling evaluating reanalysis datasets against observational rainfall data over Australia. In this research a consistent technique for quantifying downscaling uncertainties by means of Bayesian downscaling frame work has been proposed. The results suggest that there are differences in downscaled precipitation occurrences and extremes.

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.

PubMed

Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil

2016-10-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP

PubMed Central

Staras, Kevin

2016-01-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125

Montblanc1: GPU accelerated radio interferometer measurement equations in support of Bayesian inference for radio observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, S. J.; Marais, P. C.; Zwart, J. T. L.; Natarajan, I.; Tasse, C.; Smirnov, O.

2015-09-01

We present Montblanc, a GPU implementation of the Radio interferometer measurement equation (RIME) in support of the Bayesian inference for radio observations (BIRO) technique. BIRO uses Bayesian inference to select sky models that best match the visibilities observed by a radio interferometer. To accomplish this, BIRO evaluates the RIME multiple times, varying sky model parameters to produce multiple model visibilities. χ2 values computed from the model and observed visibilities are used as likelihood values to drive the Bayesian sampling process and select the best sky model. As most of the elements of the RIME and χ2 calculation are independent of one another, they are highly amenable to parallel computation. Additionally, Montblanc caters for iterative RIME evaluation to produce multiple χ2 values. Modified model parameters are transferred to the GPU between each iteration. We implemented Montblanc as a Python package based upon NVIDIA's CUDA architecture. As such, it is easy to extend and implement different pipelines. At present, Montblanc supports point and Gaussian morphologies, but is designed for easy addition of new source profiles. Montblanc's RIME implementation is performant: On an NVIDIA K40, it is approximately 250 times faster than MEQTREES on a dual hexacore Intel E5-2620v2 CPU. Compared to the OSKAR simulator's GPU-implemented RIME components it is 7.7 and 12 times faster on the same K40 for single and double-precision floating point respectively. However, OSKAR's RIME implementation is more general than Montblanc's BIRO-tailored RIME. Theoretical analysis of Montblanc's dominant CUDA kernel suggests that it is memory bound. In practice, profiling shows that is balanced between compute and memory, as much of the data required by the problem is retained in L1 and L2 caches.

Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Rachel; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Graham, Richard J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Sá Carvalho, Marilia; Barcellos, Christovam

2011-03-01

This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2.5°×2.5° longitude-latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil.

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

40 years of progress in female cancer death risk: a Bayesian spatio-temporal mapping analysis in Switzerland.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christian; Ess, Silvia; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-10-09

In the past decades, mortality of female gender related cancers declined in Switzerland and other developed countries. Differences in the decrease and in spatial patterns within Switzerland have been reported according to urbanisation and language region, and remain controversial. We aimed to investigate geographical and temporal trends of breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality, assess whether differential trends exist and to provide updated results until 2011. Breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality and population data for Switzerland in the period 1969-2011 was retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical office (FSO). Cases were grouped into <55 year olds, 55-74 year olds and 75+ year olds. The geographical unit of analysis was the municipality. To explore age- specific spatio-temporal patterns we fitted Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models on subgroup-specific death rates indirectly standardized by national references. We used linguistic region and degree of urbanisation as covariates. Female cancer mortality continuously decreased in terms of rates in all age groups and cancer sites except for ovarian cancer in 75+ year olds, especially since 1990 onwards. Contrary to other reports, we found no systematic difference between language regions. Urbanisation as a proxy for access to and quality of medical services, education and health consciousness seemed to have no influence on cancer mortality with the exception of uterine and ovarian cancer in specific age groups. We observed no obvious spatial pattern of mortality common for all cancer sites. Rate reduction in cervical cancer was even stronger than for other cancer sites. Female gender related cancer mortality is continuously decreasing in Switzerland since 1990. Geographical differences are small, present on a regional or canton-overspanning level, and different for each cancer site and age group. No general significant association with cantonal or language region borders could be observed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Overview of the TREC-2014 Microblog Track

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

tweets as part of writing a retrospective piece about the impact of social media on the Egyptian revolution. The topic is temporally-anchored in the...imagined that participants would tackle the TTG task in a pipelined architecture that begins with ad hoc retrieval followed by summary generation...random selection of 100 tweets per topic from each TTG run. Although we envisioned a sys- tem architecture consisting of ad hoc retrieval followed by

Multi-class segmentation of neuronal electron microscopy images using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, Nivedita; Agarwal, Chirag

2018-03-01

Study of connectivity of neural circuits is an essential step towards a better understanding of functioning of the nervous system. With the recent improvement in imaging techniques, high-resolution and high-volume images are being generated requiring automated segmentation techniques. We present a pixel-wise classification method based on Bayesian SegNet architecture. We carried out multi-class segmentation on serial section Transmission Electron Microscopy (ssTEM) images of Drosophila third instar larva ventral nerve cord, labeling the four classes of neuron membranes, neuron intracellular space, mitochondria and glia / extracellular space. Bayesian SegNet was trained using 256 ssTEM images of 256 x 256 pixels and tested on 64 different ssTEM images of the same size, from the same serial stack. Due to high class imbalance, we used a class-balanced version of Bayesian SegNet by re-weighting each class based on their relative frequency. We achieved an overall accuracy of 93% and a mean class accuracy of 88% for pixel-wise segmentation using this encoder-decoder approach. On evaluating the segmentation results using similarity metrics like SSIM and Dice Coefficient, we obtained scores of 0.994 and 0.886 respectively. Additionally, we used the network trained using the 256 ssTEM images of Drosophila third instar larva for multi-class labeling of ISBI 2012 challenge ssTEM dataset.

The use of genomic information increases the accuracy of breeding value predictions for sea louse (Caligus rogercresseyi) resistance in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Correa, Katharina; Bangera, Rama; Figueroa, René; Lhorente, Jean P; Yáñez, José M

2017-01-31

Sea lice infestations caused by Caligus rogercresseyi are a main concern to the salmon farming industry due to associated economic losses. Resistance to this parasite was shown to have low to moderate genetic variation and its genetic architecture was suggested to be polygenic. The aim of this study was to compare accuracies of breeding value predictions obtained with pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (P-BLUP) methodology against different genomic prediction approaches: genomic BLUP (G-BLUP), Bayesian Lasso, and Bayes C. To achieve this, 2404 individuals from 118 families were measured for C. rogercresseyi count after a challenge and genotyped using 37 K single nucleotide polymorphisms. Accuracies were assessed using fivefold cross-validation and SNP densities of 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 25 and 37 K. Accuracy of genomic predictions increased with increasing SNP density and was higher than pedigree-based BLUP predictions by up to 22%. Both Bayesian and G-BLUP methods can predict breeding values with higher accuracies than pedigree-based BLUP, however, G-BLUP may be the preferred method because of reduced computation time and ease of implementation. A relatively low marker density (i.e. 10 K) is sufficient for maximal increase in accuracy when using G-BLUP or Bayesian methods for genomic prediction of C. rogercresseyi resistance in Atlantic salmon.

Cortical Coupling Reflects Bayesian Belief Updating in the Deployment of Spatial Attention.

PubMed

Vossel, Simone; Mathys, Christoph; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

2015-08-19

The deployment of visuospatial attention and the programming of saccades are governed by the inferred likelihood of events. In the present study, we combined computational modeling of psychophysical data with fMRI to characterize the computational and neural mechanisms underlying this flexible attentional control. Sixteen healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing paradigm in which the percentage of cue validity varied in time and the targets required saccadic responses. Trialwise estimates of the certainty (precision) of the prediction that the target would appear at the cued location were derived from a hierarchical Bayesian model fitted to individual trialwise saccadic response speeds. Trial-specific model parameters then entered analyses of fMRI data as parametric regressors. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was performed to identify the most likely functional architecture of the attentional reorienting network and its modulation by (Bayes-optimal) precision-dependent attention. While the frontal eye fields (FEFs), intraparietal sulcus, and temporoparietal junction (TPJ) of both hemispheres showed higher activity on invalid relative to valid trials, reorienting responses in right FEF, TPJ, and the putamen were significantly modulated by precision-dependent attention. Our DCM results suggested that the precision of predictability underlies the attentional modulation of the coupling of TPJ with FEF and the putamen. Our results shed new light on the computational architecture and neuronal network dynamics underlying the context-sensitive deployment of visuospatial attention. Spatial attention and its neural correlates in the human brain have been studied extensively with the help of fMRI and cueing paradigms in which the location of targets is pre-cued on a trial-by-trial basis. One aspect that has so far been neglected concerns the question of how the brain forms attentional expectancies when no a priori probability information is available but needs to be inferred from observations. This study elucidates the computational and neural mechanisms under which probabilistic inference governs attentional deployment. Our results show that Bayesian belief updating explains changes in cortical connectivity; in that directional influences from the temporoparietal junction on the frontal eye fields and the putamen were modulated by (Bayes-optimal) updates. Copyright © 2015 Vossel et al.

A generalized LSTM-like training algorithm for second-order recurrent neural networks

PubMed Central

Monner, Derek; Reggia, James A.

2011-01-01

The Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is a second-order recurrent neural network architecture that excels at storing sequential short-term memories and retrieving them many time-steps later. LSTM’s original training algorithm provides the important properties of spatial and temporal locality, which are missing from other training approaches, at the cost of limiting it’s applicability to a small set of network architectures. Here we introduce the Generalized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM-g) training algorithm, which provides LSTM-like locality while being applicable without modification to a much wider range of second-order network architectures. With LSTM-g, all units have an identical set of operating instructions for both activation and learning, subject only to the configuration of their local environment in the network; this is in contrast to the original LSTM training algorithm, where each type of unit has its own activation and training instructions. When applied to LSTM architectures with peephole connections, LSTM-g takes advantage of an additional source of back-propagated error which can enable better performance than the original algorithm. Enabled by the broad architectural applicability of LSTM-g, we demonstrate that training recurrent networks engineered for specific tasks can produce better results than single-layer networks. We conclude that LSTM-g has the potential to both improve the performance and broaden the applicability of spatially and temporally local gradient-based training algorithms for recurrent neural networks. PMID:21803542

A Bayesian approach to traffic light detection and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinyalamdary, Siavash; Yilmaz, Alper

2017-03-01

Automatic traffic light detection and mapping is an open research problem. The traffic lights vary in color, shape, geolocation, activation pattern, and installation which complicate their automated detection. In addition, the image of the traffic lights may be noisy, overexposed, underexposed, or occluded. In order to address this problem, we propose a Bayesian inference framework to detect and map traffic lights. In addition to the spatio-temporal consistency constraint, traffic light characteristics such as color, shape and height is shown to further improve the accuracy of the proposed approach. The proposed approach has been evaluated on two benchmark datasets and has been shown to outperform earlier studies. The results show that the precision and recall rates for the KITTI benchmark are 95.78 % and 92.95 % respectively and the precision and recall rates for the LARA benchmark are 98.66 % and 94.65 % .

Decision making with epistemic uncertainty under safety constraints: An application to seismic design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veneziano, D.; Agarwal, A.; Karaca, E.

2009-01-01

The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations in epistemic uncertainty are ignored or worst-case scenarios are postulated. These strategies tend to produce sub-optimal decisions. We develop a general framework based on Bayesian decision theory and exemplify it for the case of seismic design of buildings. When temporal fluctuations of the epistemic uncertainties and regulatory safety constraints are included, the optimal level of seismic protection exceeds the normative level at the time of construction. Optimal Bayesian decisions do not depend on the aleatory or epistemic nature of the uncertainties, but only on the total (epistemic plus aleatory) uncertainty and how that total uncertainty varies randomly during the lifetime of the project. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phase stabilization of multidimensional amplification architectures for ultrashort pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M.; Kienel, M.; Klenke, A.; Eidam, T.; Limpert, J.; Tünnermann, A.

2015-03-01

The active phase stabilization of spatially and temporally combined ultrashort pulses is investigated theoretically and experimentally. Particularly, considering a combining scheme applying 2 amplifier channels and 4 divided-pulse replicas a bistable behavior is observed. The reason is mutual influence of the optical error signals that is intrinsic to temporal polarization beam combining. A successful mitigation strategy is proposed and is analyzed theoretically and experimentally.

Nuclear Architecture Organized by Rif1 Underpins the Replication-Timing Program

PubMed Central

Foti, Rossana; Gnan, Stefano; Cornacchia, Daniela; Dileep, Vishnu; Bulut-Karslioglu, Aydan; Diehl, Sarah; Buness, Andreas; Klein, Felix A.; Huber, Wolfgang; Johnstone, Ewan; Loos, Remco; Bertone, Paul; Gilbert, David M.; Manke, Thomas; Jenuwein, Thomas; Buonomo, Sara C.B.

2016-01-01

Summary DNA replication is temporally and spatially organized in all eukaryotes, yet the molecular control and biological function of the replication-timing program are unclear. Rif1 is required for normal genome-wide regulation of replication timing, but its molecular function is poorly understood. Here we show that in mouse embryonic stem cells, Rif1 coats late-replicating domains and, with Lamin B1, identifies most of the late-replicating genome. Rif1 is an essential determinant of replication timing of non-Lamin B1-bound late domains. We further demonstrate that Rif1 defines and restricts the interactions between replication-timing domains during the G1 phase, thereby revealing a function of Rif1 as organizer of nuclear architecture. Rif1 loss affects both number and replication-timing specificity of the interactions between replication-timing domains. In addition, during the S phase, Rif1 ensures that replication of interacting domains is temporally coordinated. In summary, our study identifies Rif1 as the molecular link between nuclear architecture and replication-timing establishment in mammals. PMID:26725008

Bayesian dynamic regression models for interval censored survival data with application to children dental health.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojing; Chen, Ming-Hui; Yan, Jun

2013-07-01

Cox models with time-varying coefficients offer great flexibility in capturing the temporal dynamics of covariate effects on event times, which could be hidden from a Cox proportional hazards model. Methodology development for varying coefficient Cox models, however, has been largely limited to right censored data; only limited work on interval censored data has been done. In most existing methods for varying coefficient models, analysts need to specify which covariate coefficients are time-varying and which are not at the time of fitting. We propose a dynamic Cox regression model for interval censored data in a Bayesian framework, where the coefficient curves are piecewise constant but the number of pieces and the jump points are covariate specific and estimated from the data. The model automatically determines the extent to which the temporal dynamics is needed for each covariate, resulting in smoother and more stable curve estimates. The posterior computation is carried out via an efficient reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Inference of each coefficient is based on an average of models with different number of pieces and jump points. A simulation study with three covariates, each with a coefficient of different degree in temporal dynamics, confirmed that the dynamic model is preferred to the existing time-varying model in terms of model comparison criteria through conditional predictive ordinate. When applied to a dental health data of children with age between 7 and 12 years, the dynamic model reveals that the relative risk of emergence of permanent tooth 24 between children with and without an infected primary predecessor is the highest at around age 7.5, and that it gradually reduces to one after age 11. These findings were not seen from the existing studies with Cox proportional hazards models.

Efficient computation of the phylogenetic likelihood function on multi-gene alignments and multi-core architectures.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ott, Michael

2008-12-27

The continuous accumulation of sequence data, for example, due to novel wet-laboratory techniques such as pyrosequencing, coupled with the increasing popularity of multi-gene phylogenies and emerging multi-core processor architectures that face problems of cache congestion, poses new challenges with respect to the efficient computation of the phylogenetic maximum-likelihood (ML) function. Here, we propose two approaches that can significantly speed up likelihood computations that typically represent over 95 per cent of the computational effort conducted by current ML or Bayesian inference programs. Initially, we present a method and an appropriate data structure to efficiently compute the likelihood score on 'gappy' multi-gene alignments. By 'gappy' we denote sampling-induced gaps owing to missing sequences in individual genes (partitions), i.e. not real alignment gaps. A first proof-of-concept implementation in RAXML indicates that this approach can accelerate inferences on large and gappy alignments by approximately one order of magnitude. Moreover, we present insights and initial performance results on multi-core architectures obtained during the transition from an OpenMP-based to a Pthreads-based fine-grained parallelization of the ML function.

Perceptual learning shapes multisensory causal inference via two distinct mechanisms

PubMed Central

McGovern, David P.; Roudaia, Eugenie; Newell, Fiona N.; Roach, Neil W.

2016-01-01

To accurately represent the environment, our brains must integrate sensory signals from a common source while segregating those from independent sources. A reasonable strategy for performing this task is to restrict integration to cues that coincide in space and time. However, because multisensory signals are subject to differential transmission and processing delays, the brain must retain a degree of tolerance for temporal discrepancies. Recent research suggests that the width of this ‘temporal binding window’ can be reduced through perceptual learning, however, little is known about the mechanisms underlying these experience-dependent effects. Here, in separate experiments, we measure the temporal and spatial binding windows of human participants before and after training on an audiovisual temporal discrimination task. We show that training leads to two distinct effects on multisensory integration in the form of (i) a specific narrowing of the temporal binding window that does not transfer to spatial binding and (ii) a general reduction in the magnitude of crossmodal interactions across all spatiotemporal disparities. These effects arise naturally from a Bayesian model of causal inference in which learning improves the precision of audiovisual timing estimation, whilst concomitantly decreasing the prior expectation that stimuli emanate from a common source. PMID:27091411

Perceptual learning shapes multisensory causal inference via two distinct mechanisms.

PubMed

McGovern, David P; Roudaia, Eugenie; Newell, Fiona N; Roach, Neil W

2016-04-19

To accurately represent the environment, our brains must integrate sensory signals from a common source while segregating those from independent sources. A reasonable strategy for performing this task is to restrict integration to cues that coincide in space and time. However, because multisensory signals are subject to differential transmission and processing delays, the brain must retain a degree of tolerance for temporal discrepancies. Recent research suggests that the width of this 'temporal binding window' can be reduced through perceptual learning, however, little is known about the mechanisms underlying these experience-dependent effects. Here, in separate experiments, we measure the temporal and spatial binding windows of human participants before and after training on an audiovisual temporal discrimination task. We show that training leads to two distinct effects on multisensory integration in the form of (i) a specific narrowing of the temporal binding window that does not transfer to spatial binding and (ii) a general reduction in the magnitude of crossmodal interactions across all spatiotemporal disparities. These effects arise naturally from a Bayesian model of causal inference in which learning improves the precision of audiovisual timing estimation, whilst concomitantly decreasing the prior expectation that stimuli emanate from a common source.

Lidar detection of underwater objects using a neuro-SVM-based architecture.

PubMed

Mitra, Vikramjit; Wang, Chia-Jiu; Banerjee, Satarupa

2006-05-01

This paper presents a neural network architecture using a support vector machine (SVM) as an inference engine (IE) for classification of light detection and ranging (Lidar) data. Lidar data gives a sequence of laser backscatter intensities obtained from laser shots generated from an airborne object at various altitudes above the earth surface. Lidar data is pre-filtered to remove high frequency noise. As the Lidar shots are taken from above the earth surface, it has some air backscatter information, which is of no importance for detecting underwater objects. Because of these, the air backscatter information is eliminated from the data and a segment of this data is subsequently selected to extract features for classification. This is then encoded using linear predictive coding (LPC) and polynomial approximation. The coefficients thus generated are used as inputs to the two branches of a parallel neural architecture. The decisions obtained from the two branches are vector multiplied and the result is fed to an SVM-based IE that presents the final inference. Two parallel neural architectures using multilayer perception (MLP) and hybrid radial basis function (HRBF) are considered in this paper. The proposed structure fits the Lidar data classification task well due to the inherent classification efficiency of neural networks and accurate decision-making capability of SVM. A Bayesian classifier and a quadratic classifier were considered for the Lidar data classification task but they failed to offer high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, a single-layered artificial neural network (ANN) classifier was also considered and it failed to offer good accuracy. The parallel ANN architecture proposed in this paper offers high prediction accuracy (98.9%) and is found to be the most suitable architecture for the proposed task of Lidar data classification.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Bayesian Tracking within a Feedback Sensing Environment: Estimating Interacting, Spatially Constrained Complex Dynamical Systems from Multiple Sources of Controllable Devices

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-25

composition of simple temporal structures to a speaker diarization task with the goal of segmenting conference audio in the presence of an unknown number of...application domains including neuroimaging, diverse document selection, speaker diarization , stock modeling, and target tracking. We detail each of...recall performance than competing methods in a task of discovering articles preferred by the user • a gold-standard speaker diarization method, as

Demography and population status of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunn, Nicholas J.; Regher, Eric V; Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

The 2011 abundance estimate from this analysis was 806 bears with a 95% Bayesian credible interval of 653-984. This is lower than, but broadly consistent with, the abundance estimate of 1,030 (95% confidence interval = 745-1406) from a 2011 aerial survey (Stapleton et al. 2014). The capture-recapture and aerial survey approaches have different spatial and temporal coverage of the WH subpopulation and, consequently, the effective study population considered by each approach is different.

Surveying for architectural students: as simple as possible - as much as necessary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, I.; Mitterecker, T.

2017-08-01

More and more, existing buildings - and particularly historic buildings - are becoming part of the daily business of every architect. Planning and designing in the field of architectural heritage requires not only knowledge of contemporary building techniques, design processes and national and international guidelines, but also a deep understanding of architectural heritage, its evolution and genesis, the building techniques that have been applied, materials used, traditions, etc. In many cases, it is indispensable to perform a detailed building survey and building research to achieve an adequate design concept. The Department of History of Architecture and Building Archaeology of TU Wien has an extensive tradition of building research and over the course of the past 10 years, has developed a teaching workflow to introduce architectural students to building archaeology und surveying methods for building research. A sophisticated, temporally interwoven combination of courses and lectures on different topics related to building archaeology and surveying rapidly gives the architectural students the right tools for this important but often neglected task.

Brain activity underlying auditory perceptual learning during short period training: simultaneous fMRI and EEG recording

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is an accumulating body of evidence indicating that neuronal functional specificity to basic sensory stimulation is mutable and subject to experience. Although fMRI experiments have investigated changes in brain activity after relative to before perceptual learning, brain activity during perceptual learning has not been explored. This work investigated brain activity related to auditory frequency discrimination learning using a variational Bayesian approach for source localization, during simultaneous EEG and fMRI recording. We investigated whether the practice effects are determined solely by activity in stimulus-driven mechanisms or whether high-level attentional mechanisms, which are linked to the perceptual task, control the learning process. Results The results of fMRI analyses revealed significant attention and learning related activity in left and right superior temporal gyrus STG as well as the left inferior frontal gyrus IFG. Current source localization of simultaneously recorded EEG data was estimated using a variational Bayesian method. Analysis of current localized to the left inferior frontal gyrus and the right superior temporal gyrus revealed gamma band activity correlated with behavioral performance. Conclusions Rapid improvement in task performance is accompanied by plastic changes in the sensory cortex as well as superior areas gated by selective attention. Together the fMRI and EEG results suggest that gamma band activity in the right STG and left IFG plays an important role during perceptual learning. PMID:23316957

A spatiotemporal model of ecological and sociological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background/Question/Methods Suffolk County, New York is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a robust system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. Since 2010, there have been 55 confirmed human cases of WNV in Suffolk County, resulting in 3 deaths. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV we developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008-2014 using the R package 'R-INLA' which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The INLA SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of temporal parameters and a spatial covariance matrix, while incorporating multiple likelihood functions and running in standard R statistical software on a typical home computer. Results/Conclusions We found that land cover classified as open water or woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two weeks lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R-INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a mar

Spatio-temporal Genetic Structuring of Leishmania major in Tunisia by Microsatellite Analysis

PubMed Central

Harrabi, Myriam; Bettaieb, Jihène; Ghawar, Wissem; Toumi, Amine; Zaâtour, Amor; Yazidi, Rihab; Chaâbane, Sana; Chalghaf, Bilel; Hide, Mallorie; Bañuls, Anne-Laure; Ben Salah, Afif

2015-01-01

In Tunisia, cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major are increasing and spreading from the south-west to new areas in the center. To improve the current knowledge on L. major evolution and population dynamics, we performed multi-locus microsatellite typing of human isolates from Tunisian governorates where the disease is endemic (Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates) and collected during two periods: 1991–1992 and 2008–2012. Analysis (F-statistics and Bayesian model-based approach) of the genotyping results of isolates collected in Sidi Bouzid in 1991–1992 and 2008–2012 shows that, over two decades, in the same area, Leishmania parasites evolved by generating genetically differentiated populations. The genetic patterns of 2008–2012 isolates from the three governorates indicate that L. major populations did not spread gradually from the south to the center of Tunisia, according to a geographical gradient, suggesting that human activities might be the source of the disease expansion. The genotype analysis also suggests previous (Bayesian model-based approach) and current (F-statistics) flows of genotypes between governorates and districts. Human activities as well as reservoir dynamics and the effects of environmental changes could explain how the disease progresses. This study provides new insights into the evolution and spread of L. major in Tunisia that might improve our understanding of the parasite flow between geographically and temporally distinct populations. PMID:26302440

Non parametric, self organizing, scalable modeling of spatiotemporal inputs: the sign language paradigm.

PubMed

Caridakis, G; Karpouzis, K; Drosopoulos, A; Kollias, S

2012-12-01

Modeling and recognizing spatiotemporal, as opposed to static input, is a challenging task since it incorporates input dynamics as part of the problem. The vast majority of existing methods tackle the problem as an extension of the static counterpart, using dynamics, such as input derivatives, at feature level and adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques originally designed for solving problems that do not specifically address the temporal aspect. The proposed approach deals with temporal and spatial aspects of the spatiotemporal domain in a discriminative as well as coupling manner. Self Organizing Maps (SOM) model the spatial aspect of the problem and Markov models its temporal counterpart. Incorporation of adjacency, both in training and classification, enhances the overall architecture with robustness and adaptability. The proposed scheme is validated both theoretically, through an error propagation study, and experimentally, on the recognition of individual signs, performed by different, native Greek Sign Language users. Results illustrate the architecture's superiority when compared to Hidden Markov Model techniques and variations both in terms of classification performance and computational cost. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Principles of Temporal Processing Across the Cortical Hierarchy.

PubMed

Himberger, Kevin D; Chien, Hsiang-Yun; Honey, Christopher J

2018-05-02

The world is richly structured on multiple spatiotemporal scales. In order to represent spatial structure, many machine-learning models repeat a set of basic operations at each layer of a hierarchical architecture. These iterated spatial operations - including pooling, normalization and pattern completion - enable these systems to recognize and predict spatial structure, while robust to changes in the spatial scale, contrast and noisiness of the input signal. Because our brains also process temporal information that is rich and occurs across multiple time scales, might the brain employ an analogous set of operations for temporal information processing? Here we define a candidate set of temporal operations, and we review evidence that they are implemented in the mammalian cerebral cortex in a hierarchical manner. We conclude that multiple consecutive stages of cortical processing can be understood to perform temporal pooling, temporal normalization and temporal pattern completion. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2016-01-01

With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Zero-inflated spatio-temporal models for disease mapping.

PubMed

Torabi, Mahmoud

2017-05-01

In this paper, our aim is to analyze geographical and temporal variability of disease incidence when spatio-temporal count data have excess zeros. To that end, we consider random effects in zero-inflated Poisson models to investigate geographical and temporal patterns of disease incidence. Spatio-temporal models that employ conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and B-spline smoothing over the temporal dimension are proposed. The analysis of these complex models is computationally difficult from the frequentist perspective. On the other hand, the advent of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm has made the Bayesian analysis of complex models computationally convenient. Recently developed data cloning method provides a frequentist approach to mixed models that is also computationally convenient. We propose to use data cloning, which yields to maximum likelihood estimation, to conduct frequentist analysis of zero-inflated spatio-temporal modeling of disease incidence. One of the advantages of the data cloning approach is that the prediction and corresponding standard errors (or prediction intervals) of smoothing disease incidence over space and time is easily obtained. We illustrate our approach using a real dataset of monthly children asthma visits to hospital in the province of Manitoba, Canada, during the period April 2006 to March 2010. Performance of our approach is also evaluated through a simulation study. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Acousto-Optic Processing of 2-D Signals Using Temporal and Spatial Integration.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-31

Documents includes data on: Architectures; Coherence Properties of Pulsed Laser Diodes; Acousto - optic device data; Dynamic Range Issues; Image correlation; Synthetic aperture radar; 2-D Fourier transform; and Moments.

Modeling and performance analysis of QoS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzeciwilk, Dariusz; Zuberek, Włodzimierz M.

2016-09-01

The article presents the results of modeling and analysis of data transmission performance on systems that support quality of service. Models are designed and tested, taking into account multiservice network architecture, i.e. supporting the transmission of data related to different classes of traffic. Studied were mechanisms of traffic shaping systems, which are based on the Priority Queuing with an integrated source of data and the various sources of data that is generated. Discussed were the basic problems of the architecture supporting QoS and queuing systems. Designed and built were models based on Petri nets, supported by temporal logics. The use of simulation tools was to verify the mechanisms of shaping traffic with the applied queuing algorithms. It is shown that temporal models of Petri nets can be effectively used in the modeling and analysis of the performance of computer networks.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

PubMed

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure.

Bayesian probabilistic approach for inverse source determination from limited and noisy chemical or biological sensor concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Eugene

2007-04-01

Although a great deal of research effort has been focused on the forward prediction of the dispersion of contaminants (e.g., chemical and biological warfare agents) released into the turbulent atmosphere, much less work has been directed toward the inverse prediction of agent source location and strength from the measured concentration, even though the importance of this problem for a number of practical applications is obvious. In general, the inverse problem of source reconstruction is ill-posed and unsolvable without additional information. It is demonstrated that a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework provides a natural and logically consistent method for source reconstruction from a limited number of noisy concentration data. In particular, the Bayesian approach permits one to incorporate prior knowledge about the source as well as additional information regarding both model and data errors. The latter enables a rigorous determination of the uncertainty in the inference of the source parameters (e.g., spatial location, emission rate, release time, etc.), hence extending the potential of the methodology as a tool for quantitative source reconstruction. A model (or, source-receptor relationship) that relates the source distribution to the concentration data measured by a number of sensors is formulated, and Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source-receptor relationship, is described. Furthermore, we describe the application of efficient stochastic algorithms based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for sampling from the posterior distribution of the source parameters, the latter of which is required to undertake the Bayesian computation. The Bayesian inferential methodology for source reconstruction is validated against real dispersion data for two cases involving contaminant dispersion in highly disturbed flows over urban and complex environments where the idealizations of horizontal homogeneity and/or temporal stationarity in the flow cannot be applied to simplify the problem. Furthermore, the methodology is applied to the case of reconstruction of multiple sources.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time series often deviate significantly from the requirements of optimality for Fourier transformation. In this paper we present an alternative approach based on Bayesian inference. We show the value of placing spectral analysis in the framework of Bayesian inference and demonstrate how model comparison can automate this procedure. PMID:21702910

A New Method for Predicting Patient Survivorship Using Efficient Bayesian Network Learning

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis. PMID:24558297

A new method for predicting patient survivorship using efficient bayesian network learning.

PubMed

Jiang, Xia; Xue, Diyang; Brufsky, Adam; Khan, Seema; Neapolitan, Richard

2014-01-01

The purpose of this investigation is to develop and evaluate a new Bayesian network (BN)-based patient survivorship prediction method. The central hypothesis is that the method predicts patient survivorship well, while having the capability to handle high-dimensional data and be incorporated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). We have developed EBMC_Survivorship (EBMC_S), which predicts survivorship for each year individually. EBMC_S is based on the EBMC BN algorithm, which has been shown to handle high-dimensional data. BNs have excellent architecture for decision support systems. In this study, we evaluate EBMC_S using the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) dataset, which concerns breast tumors. A 5-fold cross-validation study indicates that EMBC_S performs better than the Cox proportional hazard model and is comparable to the random survival forest method. We show that EBMC_S provides additional information such as sensitivity analyses, which covariates predict each year, and yearly areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs). We conclude that our investigation supports the central hypothesis.

Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

2017-12-01

Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream measurements.

Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2010-01-01

Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

HIV Migration Between Blood and Cerebrospinal Fluid or Semen Over Time

PubMed Central

Chaillon, Antoine; Gianella, Sara; Wertheim, Joel O.; Richman, Douglas D.; Mehta, Sanjay R.; Smith, David M.

2014-01-01

Previous studies reported associations between neuropathogenesis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) compartmentalization in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and between sexual transmission and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) compartmentalization in semen. It remains unclear, however, how compartmentalization dynamics change over time. To address this, we used statistical methods and Bayesian phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct temporal dynamics of HIV migration between blood and CSF and between blood and the male genital tract. We investigated 11 HIV-infected individuals with paired semen and blood samples and 4 individuals with paired CSF and blood samples. Aligned partial HIV env sequences were analyzed by (1) phylogenetic reconstruction, using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach; (2) evaluation of viral compartmentalization, using tree-based and distance-based methods; and (3) analysis of migration events, using a discrete Bayesian asymmetric phylogeographic approach of diffusion with Markov jump counts estimation. Finally, we evaluated potential correlates of viral gene flow across anatomical compartments. We observed bidirectional replenishment of viral compartments and asynchronous peaks of viral migration from and to blood over time, suggesting that disruption of viral compartment is transient and directionally selected. These findings imply that viral subpopulations in anatomical sites are an active part of the whole viral population and that compartmental reservoirs could have implications in future eradication studies. PMID:24302756

An adaptive Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate the parameters of a hazardous atmospheric release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaona, Harizo; Septier, François; Armand, Patrick; Delignon, Yves; Olry, Christophe; Albergel, Armand; Moussafir, Jacques

2015-12-01

In the eventuality of an accidental or intentional atmospheric release, the reconstruction of the source term using measurements from a set of sensors is an important and challenging inverse problem. A rapid and accurate estimation of the source allows faster and more efficient action for first-response teams, in addition to providing better damage assessment. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the location and the temporal emission profile of a pointwise source. The release rate is evaluated analytically by using a Gaussian assumption on its prior distribution, and is enhanced with a positivity constraint to improve the estimation. The source location is obtained by the means of an advanced iterative Monte-Carlo technique called Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS), which uses a recycling process at each iteration to accelerate its convergence. The proposed methodology is tested using synthetic and real concentration data in the framework of the Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT-07) experiment. The quality of the obtained results is comparable to those coming from the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a popular Bayesian method used for source estimation. Moreover, the adaptive processing of the AMIS provides a better sampling efficiency by reusing all the generated samples.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood estimation (BMCML) to calibrate a lake oxygen recovery model. We first derive an analytical solution of the differential equation governing lake-averaged oxygen dynamics as a function of time-variable wind speed. Statistical inferences on model parameters and predictive uncertainty are then drawn by Bayesian conditioning of the analytical solution on observed daily wind speed and oxygen concentration data obtained from an earlier study during two recovery periods on a eutrophic lake in upper state New York. The model is calibrated using oxygen recovery data for one year and statistical inferences were validated using recovery data for another year. Compared with essentially two-step, regression and optimization approach, the BMCML results are more comprehensive and performed relatively better in predicting the observed temporal dissolved oxygen levels (DO) in the lake. BMCML also produced comparable calibration and validation results with those obtained using popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique (MCMC) and is computationally simpler and easier to implement than the MCMC. Next, using the calibrated model, we derive an optimal relationship between liquid film-transfer coefficien

Predit: A temporal predictive framework for scheduling systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paolucci, E.; Patriarca, E.; Sem, M.; Gini, G.

1992-01-01

Scheduling can be formalized as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). Within this framework activities belonging to a plan are interconnected via temporal constraints that account for slack among them. Temporal representation must include methods for constraints propagation and provide a logic for symbolic and numerical deductions. In this paper we describe a support framework for opportunistic reasoning in constraint directed scheduling. In order to focus the attention of an incremental scheduler on critical problem aspects, some discrete temporal indexes are presented. They are also useful for the prediction of the degree of resources contention. The predictive method expressed through our indexes can be seen as a Knowledge Source for an opportunistic scheduler with a blackboard architecture.

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling of rates and variability of Holocene sea-level changes in the western North Atlantic and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Khan, N.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies over of both space and time. Prior to the instrumental period, the sea-level record depends upon geological reconstructions that contain vertical and temporal uncertainty. Spatio-temporal statistical models enable the interpretation of RSL and rates of change as well as the reconstruction of the entire sea-level field from such noisy data. Hierarchical models explicitly distinguish between a process level, which characterizes the spatio-temporal field, and a data level, by which sparse proxy data and its noise is recorded. A hyperparameter level depicts prior expectations about the structure of variability in the spatio-temporal field. Spatio-temporal hierarchical models are amenable to several analysis approaches, with tradeoffs regarding computational efficiency and comprehensiveness of uncertainty characterization. A fully-Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which places prior probability distributions upon the hyperparameters, is more computationally intensive than an empirical hierarchical model (EHM), which uses point estimates of hyperparameters, derived from the data [1]. Here, we assess the sensitivity of posterior estimates of relative sea level (RSL) and rates to different statistical approaches by varying prior assumptions about the spatial and temporal structure of sea-level variability and applying multiple analytical approaches to Holocene sea-level proxies along the Atlantic coast of North American and the Caribbean [2]. References: 1. N Cressie, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data (John Wiley & Sons). 2. Kahn N et al. (2016). Quaternary Science Reviews (in revision).

Determining Protein Complex Structures Based on a Bayesian Model of in Vivo Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) Data*

PubMed Central

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Kim, Seung Joong; Russel, Daniel; Sundin, Bryan A.; Riffle, Michael; Jaschob, Daniel; Ramsden, Richard; Davis, Trisha N.; Muller, Eric G. D.; Sali, Andrej

2014-01-01

The use of in vivo Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) data to determine the molecular architecture of a protein complex in living cells is challenging due to data sparseness, sample heterogeneity, signal contributions from multiple donors and acceptors, unequal fluorophore brightness, photobleaching, flexibility of the linker connecting the fluorophore to the tagged protein, and spectral cross-talk. We addressed these challenges by using a Bayesian approach that produces the posterior probability of a model, given the input data. The posterior probability is defined as a function of the dependence of our FRET metric FRETR on a structure (forward model), a model of noise in the data, as well as prior information about the structure, relative populations of distinct states in the sample, forward model parameters, and data noise. The forward model was validated against kinetic Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo experimental data collected on nine systems of known structure. In addition, our Bayesian approach was validated by a benchmark of 16 protein complexes of known structure. Given the structures of each subunit of the complexes, models were computed from synthetic FRETR data with a distance root-mean-squared deviation error of 14 to 17 Å. The approach is implemented in the open-source Integrative Modeling Platform, allowing us to determine macromolecular structures through a combination of in vivo FRETR data and data from other sources, such as electron microscopy and chemical cross-linking. PMID:25139910

Advanced integrated enhanced vision systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, J. R.; Luk, Chiu H.; Hammerstrom, Dan; Pavel, Misha

2003-09-01

In anticipation of its ultimate role in transport, business and rotary wing aircraft, we clarify the role of Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS): how the output data will be utilized, appropriate architecture for total avionics integration, pilot and control interfaces, and operational utilization. Ground-map (database) correlation is critical, and we suggest that "synthetic vision" is simply a subset of the monitor/guidance interface issue. The core of integrated EVS is its sensor processor. In order to approximate optimal, Bayesian multi-sensor fusion and ground correlation functionality in real time, we are developing a neural net approach utilizing human visual pathway and self-organizing, associative-engine processing. In addition to EVS/SVS imagery, outputs will include sensor-based navigation and attitude signals as well as hazard detection. A system architecture is described, encompassing an all-weather sensor suite; advanced processing technology; intertial, GPS and other avionics inputs; and pilot and machine interfaces. Issues of total-system accuracy and integrity are addressed, as well as flight operational aspects relating to both civil certification and military applications in IMC.

Signatures of negative selection in the genetic architecture of human complex traits.

PubMed

Zeng, Jian; de Vlaming, Ronald; Wu, Yang; Robinson, Matthew R; Lloyd-Jones, Luke R; Yengo, Loic; Yap, Chloe X; Xue, Angli; Sidorenko, Julia; McRae, Allan F; Powell, Joseph E; Montgomery, Grant W; Metspalu, Andres; Esko, Tonu; Gibson, Greg; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Yang, Jian

2018-05-01

We develop a Bayesian mixed linear model that simultaneously estimates single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability, polygenicity (proportion of SNPs with nonzero effects), and the relationship between SNP effect size and minor allele frequency for complex traits in conventionally unrelated individuals using genome-wide SNP data. We apply the method to 28 complex traits in the UK Biobank data (N = 126,752) and show that on average, 6% of SNPs have nonzero effects, which in total explain 22% of phenotypic variance. We detect significant (P < 0.05/28) signatures of natural selection in the genetic architecture of 23 traits, including reproductive, cardiovascular, and anthropometric traits, as well as educational attainment. The significant estimates of the relationship between effect size and minor allele frequency in complex traits are consistent with a model of negative (or purifying) selection, as confirmed by forward simulation. We conclude that negative selection acts pervasively on the genetic variants associated with human complex traits.

Spatio-temporal analysis of Modified Omori law in Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezanezhad, V.; Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents a study of the spatio temporal evolution of the modified Omori parameters in southern California in then time period of 1981-2016. A nearest-neighbor approach is applied for earthquake clustering. This study targets small mainshocks and corresponding big aftershocks ( 2.5 ≤ mmainshocks ≤ 4.5 and 1.8 ≤ maftershocks ≤ 2.8 ). We invert for the spatio temporal behavior of c and p values (especially c) all over the area using a MCMC based maximum likelihood estimator. As parameterizing families we use Voronoi cells with randomly distributed cell centers. Considering that c value represents a physical character like stress change we expect to see a coherent c value pattern over seismologically coacting areas. This correlation of c valus can actually be seen for the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Elsinore faults. Moreover, the depth dependency of c value is studied which shows a linear behavior of log(c) with respect to aftershock's depth within 5 to 15 km depth.

Reconstructing plate-motion changes in the presence of finite-rotations noise.

PubMed

Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Bodin, Thomas; Sambridge, Malcolm

2012-01-01

Understanding lithospheric plate motions is of paramount importance to geodynamicists. Much effort is going into kinematic reconstructions featuring progressively finer temporal resolution. However, the challenge of precisely identifying ocean-floor magnetic lineations, and uncertainties in geomagnetic reversal timescales result in substantial finite-rotations noise. Unless some type of temporal smoothing is applied, the scenario arising at the native temporal resolution is puzzling, as plate motions vary erratically and significantly over short periods (<1 Myr). This undermines our ability to make geodynamic inferences, as the rates at which forces need to be built upon plates to explain these kinematics far exceed the most optimistic estimates. Here we show that the largest kinematic changes reconstructed across the Atlantic, Indian and South Pacific ridges arise from data noise. We overcome this limitation using a trans-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian framework. We find that plate-motion changes occur on timescales no shorter than a few million years, yielding simpler kinematic patterns and more plausible dynamics.

Hierarchical regulation of the genome: global changes in nucleosome organization potentiate genome response

PubMed Central

Sexton, Brittany S.; Druliner, Brooke R.; Vera, Daniel L.; Avey, Denis; Zhu, Fanxiu; Dennis, Jonathan H.

2016-01-01

Nucleosome occupancy is critically important in regulating access to the eukaryotic genome. Few studies in human cells have measured genome-wide nucleosome distributions at high temporal resolution during a response to a common stimulus. We measured nucleosome distributions at high temporal resolution following Kaposi's-sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) reactivation using our newly developed mTSS-seq technology, which maps nucleosome distribution at the transcription start sites (TSS) of all human genes. Nucleosomes underwent widespread changes in organization 24 hours after KSHV reactivation and returned to their basal nucleosomal architecture 48 hours after KSHV reactivation. The widespread changes consisted of an indiscriminate remodeling event resulting in the loss of nucleosome rotational phasing signals. Additionally, one in six TSSs in the human genome possessed nucleosomes that are translationally remodeled. 72% of the loci with translationally remodeled nucleosomes have nucleosomes that moved to positions encoded by the underlying DNA sequence. Finally we demonstrated that these widespread alterations in nucleosomal architecture potentiated regulatory factor binding. These descriptions of nucleosomal architecture changes provide a new framework for understanding the role of chromatin in the genomic response, and have allowed us to propose a hierarchical model for chromatin-based regulation of genome response. PMID:26771136

Seeking Temporal Predictability in Speech: Comparing Statistical Approaches on 18 World Languages.

PubMed

Jadoul, Yannick; Ravignani, Andrea; Thompson, Bill; Filippi, Piera; de Boer, Bart

2016-01-01

Temporal regularities in speech, such as interdependencies in the timing of speech events, are thought to scaffold early acquisition of the building blocks in speech. By providing on-line clues to the location and duration of upcoming syllables, temporal structure may aid segmentation and clustering of continuous speech into separable units. This hypothesis tacitly assumes that learners exploit predictability in the temporal structure of speech. Existing measures of speech timing tend to focus on first-order regularities among adjacent units, and are overly sensitive to idiosyncrasies in the data they describe. Here, we compare several statistical methods on a sample of 18 languages, testing whether syllable occurrence is predictable over time. Rather than looking for differences between languages, we aim to find across languages (using clearly defined acoustic, rather than orthographic, measures), temporal predictability in the speech signal which could be exploited by a language learner. First, we analyse distributional regularities using two novel techniques: a Bayesian ideal learner analysis, and a simple distributional measure. Second, we model higher-order temporal structure-regularities arising in an ordered series of syllable timings-testing the hypothesis that non-adjacent temporal structures may explain the gap between subjectively-perceived temporal regularities, and the absence of universally-accepted lower-order objective measures. Together, our analyses provide limited evidence for predictability at different time scales, though higher-order predictability is difficult to reliably infer. We conclude that temporal predictability in speech may well arise from a combination of individually weak perceptual cues at multiple structural levels, but is challenging to pinpoint.

Seeking Temporal Predictability in Speech: Comparing Statistical Approaches on 18 World Languages

PubMed Central

Jadoul, Yannick; Ravignani, Andrea; Thompson, Bill; Filippi, Piera; de Boer, Bart

2016-01-01

Temporal regularities in speech, such as interdependencies in the timing of speech events, are thought to scaffold early acquisition of the building blocks in speech. By providing on-line clues to the location and duration of upcoming syllables, temporal structure may aid segmentation and clustering of continuous speech into separable units. This hypothesis tacitly assumes that learners exploit predictability in the temporal structure of speech. Existing measures of speech timing tend to focus on first-order regularities among adjacent units, and are overly sensitive to idiosyncrasies in the data they describe. Here, we compare several statistical methods on a sample of 18 languages, testing whether syllable occurrence is predictable over time. Rather than looking for differences between languages, we aim to find across languages (using clearly defined acoustic, rather than orthographic, measures), temporal predictability in the speech signal which could be exploited by a language learner. First, we analyse distributional regularities using two novel techniques: a Bayesian ideal learner analysis, and a simple distributional measure. Second, we model higher-order temporal structure—regularities arising in an ordered series of syllable timings—testing the hypothesis that non-adjacent temporal structures may explain the gap between subjectively-perceived temporal regularities, and the absence of universally-accepted lower-order objective measures. Together, our analyses provide limited evidence for predictability at different time scales, though higher-order predictability is difficult to reliably infer. We conclude that temporal predictability in speech may well arise from a combination of individually weak perceptual cues at multiple structural levels, but is challenging to pinpoint. PMID:27994544

Digital visual communications using a Perceptual Components Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Andrew B.

1991-01-01

The next era of space exploration will generate extraordinary volumes of image data, and management of this image data is beyond current technical capabilities. We propose a strategy for coding visual information that exploits the known properties of early human vision. This Perceptual Components Architecture codes images and image sequences in terms of discrete samples from limited bands of color, spatial frequency, orientation, and temporal frequency. This spatiotemporal pyramid offers efficiency (low bit rate), variable resolution, device independence, error-tolerance, and extensibility.

The Salience Network and Its Functional Architecture in a Perceptual Decision: An Effective Connectivity Study.

PubMed

Lamichhane, Bidhan; Dhamala, Mukesh

2015-08-01

The anterior insulae (INSs) are involved in accumulating sensory evidence in perceptual decision-making independent of the motor response, whereas the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) is known to play a role in choosing appropriate behavioral responses. Recent evidence suggests that INSs and dACC are part of the salience network (SN), a key network known to be involved in decision-making and thought to be important for the coordination of behavioral responses. However, how these nodes in the SN contribute to the decision-making process from segregation of stimuli to the generation of an appropriate behavioral response remains unknown. In this study, the authors scanned 33 participants in functional magnetic resonance imaging and asked them to decide whether the presented pairs of audio (a beep of sound) and visual (a flash of light) stimuli were synchronous or asynchronous. Participants reported their perception with a button press. Stimuli were presented in block of eight pairs with a temporal lag (ΔT) between the first (audio) and the second (visual) stimulus in each pair. They used dynamic causal modeling (DCM) and the Bayesian model evidence technique to elucidate the functional architecture between the nodes of SN. Both the synchrony and the asynchrony perception resulted in strong activation in the SN. Most importantly, the DCM analyses demonstrated that the INSs were integrating as well as driving hubs in the SN. The INSs were found to a play an important role in the integration of sensory information; input to the SN is most likely through INSs. Furthermore, significant INSs to dACC intrinsic connectivity established by these task conditions help us conclude that INSs drive the dACC to guide the behavior of choosing the appropriate response. The authors therefore argue that the dACC and INS are part of a system involved in the decision-making process from perception to planning of a motor response, and that this observed functional mechanism might be important during the performance of cognitively demanding goal-directed tasks.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of tree species governs the spatio-temporal interaction of leaf area index and soil moisture across a forested landscape.

PubMed

Naithani, Kusum J; Baldwin, Doug C; Gaines, Katie P; Lin, Henry; Eissenstat, David M

2013-01-01

Quantifying coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of phenology and hydrology and understanding underlying processes is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrology. While variation in phenology and factors influencing it have attracted the attention of ecologists for a long time, the influence of biodiversity on coupled dynamics of phenology and hydrology across a landscape is largely untested. We measured leaf area index (L) and volumetric soil water content (θ) on a co-located spatial grid to characterize forest phenology and hydrology across a forested catchment in central Pennsylvania during 2010. We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of L and θ. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of tree species across the landscape created unique spatio-temporal patterns of L, which created patterns of water demand reflected in variable soil moisture across space and time. We found a lag of about 11 days between increase in L and decline in θ. Vegetation and soil moisture become increasingly homogenized and coupled from leaf-onset to maturity but heterogeneous and uncoupled from leaf maturity to senescence. Our results provide insight into spatio-temporal coupling between biodiversity and soil hydrology that is useful to enhance ecohydrological modeling in humid temperate forests.

Conditional clustering of temporal expression profiles

PubMed Central

Wang, Ling; Montano, Monty; Rarick, Matt; Sebastiani, Paola

2008-01-01

Background Many microarray experiments produce temporal profiles in different biological conditions but common cluster techniques are not able to analyze the data conditional on the biological conditions. Results This article presents a novel technique to cluster data from time course microarray experiments performed across several experimental conditions. Our algorithm uses polynomial models to describe the gene expression patterns over time, a full Bayesian approach with proper conjugate priors to make the algorithm invariant to linear transformations, and an iterative procedure to identify genes that have a common temporal expression profile across two or more experimental conditions, and genes that have a unique temporal profile in a specific condition. Conclusion We use simulated data to evaluate the effectiveness of this new algorithm in finding the correct number of clusters and in identifying genes with common and unique profiles. We also use the algorithm to characterize the response of human T cells to stimulations of antigen-receptor signaling gene expression temporal profiles measured in six different biological conditions and we identify common and unique genes. These studies suggest that the methodology proposed here is useful in identifying and distinguishing uniquely stimulated genes from commonly stimulated genes in response to variable stimuli. Software for using this clustering method is available from the project home page. PMID:18334028

Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the parasite and its vector, but also socio-economic conditions, such as levels of urbanization, poverty and education, which impact human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for the modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Methods A statistical mixed model framework is proposed to model malaria risk at the district level in Malawi, using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases from July 2004 to June 2011. Several climatic, geographic and socio-economic factors thought to influence malaria incidence were tested in an exploratory model. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a generalized linear mixed model was adopted, which included structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Using a stepwise model selection procedure, several explanatory variables were identified to have significant associations with malaria including climatic, cartographic and socio-economic data. Once intervention variations, unobserved confounding factors and spatial correlation were considered in a Bayesian framework, a final model emerged with statistically significant predictor variables limited to average precipitation (quadratic relation) and average temperature during the three months previous to the month of interest. Conclusions When modelling malaria risk in Malawi it is important to account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and correlation between districts. Once observed and unobserved confounding factors are allowed for, precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

Identifying in vivo DCE MRI markers associated with microvessel architecture and gleason grades of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Singanamalli, Asha; Rusu, Mirabela; Sparks, Rachel E; Shih, Natalie N C; Ziober, Amy; Wang, Li-Ping; Tomaszewski, John; Rosen, Mark; Feldman, Michael; Madabhushi, Anant

2016-01-01

To identify computer extracted in vivo dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI markers associated with quantitative histomorphometric (QH) characteristics of microvessels and Gleason scores (GS) in prostate cancer. This study considered retrospective data from 23 biopsy confirmed prostate cancer patients who underwent 3 Tesla multiparametric MRI before radical prostatectomy (RP). Representative slices from RP specimens were stained with vascular marker CD31. Tumor extent was mapped from RP sections onto DCE MRI using nonlinear registration methods. Seventy-seven microvessel QH features and 18 DCE MRI kinetic features were extracted and evaluated for their ability to distinguish low from intermediate and high GS. The effect of temporal sampling on kinetic features was assessed and correlations between those robust to temporal resolution and microvessel features discriminative of GS were examined. A total of 12 microvessel architectural features were discriminative of low and intermediate/high grade tumors with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) > 0.7. These features were most highly correlated with mean washout gradient (WG) (max rho = -0.62). Independent analysis revealed WG to be moderately robust to temporal resolution (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.63) and WG variance, which was poorly correlated with microvessel features, to be predictive of low grade tumors (AUC = 0.77). Enhancement ratio was the most robust (ICC = 0.96) and discriminative (AUC = 0.78) kinetic feature but was moderately correlated with microvessel features (max rho = -0.52). Computer extracted features of prostate DCE MRI appear to be correlated with microvessel architecture and may be discriminative of low versus intermediate and high GS. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A scanner system for high-resolution quantification of variation in root growth dynamics of Brassica rapa genotypes.

PubMed

Adu, Michael O; Chatot, Antoine; Wiesel, Lea; Bennett, Malcolm J; Broadley, Martin R; White, Philip J; Dupuy, Lionel X

2014-05-01

The potential exists to breed for root system architectures that optimize resource acquisition. However, this requires the ability to screen root system development quantitatively, with high resolution, in as natural an environment as possible, with high throughput. This paper describes the construction of a low-cost, high-resolution root phenotyping platform, requiring no sophisticated equipment and adaptable to most laboratory and glasshouse environments, and its application to quantify environmental and temporal variation in root traits between genotypes of Brassica rapa L. Plants were supplied with a complete nutrient solution through the wick of a germination paper. Images of root systems were acquired without manual intervention, over extended periods, using multiple scanners controlled by customized software. Mixed-effects models were used to describe the sources of variation in root traits contributing to root system architecture estimated from digital images. It was calculated that between one and 43 replicates would be required to detect a significant difference (95% CI 50% difference between traits). Broad-sense heritability was highest for shoot biomass traits (>0.60), intermediate (0.25-0.60) for the length and diameter of primary roots and lateral root branching density on the primary root, and lower (<0.25) for other root traits. Models demonstrate that root traits show temporal variations of various types. The phenotyping platform described here can be used to quantify environmental and temporal variation in traits contributing to root system architecture in B. rapa and can be extended to screen the large populations required for breeding for efficient resource acquisition.

Computational memory architectures for autobiographic agents interacting in a complex virtual environment: a working model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Wan Ching; Dautenhahn, Kerstin; Nehaniv, Chrystopher

2008-03-01

In this paper, we discuss the concept of autobiographic agent and how memory may extend an agent's temporal horizon and increase its adaptability. These concepts are applied to an implementation of a scenario where agents are interacting in a complex virtual artificial life environment. We present computational memory architectures for autobiographic virtual agents that enable agents to retrieve meaningful information from their dynamic memories which increases their adaptation and survival in the environment. The design of the memory architectures, the agents, and the virtual environment are described in detail. Next, a series of experimental studies and their results are presented which show the adaptive advantage of autobiographic memory, i.e. from remembering significant experiences. Also, in a multi-agent scenario where agents can communicate via stories based on their autobiographic memory, it is found that new adaptive behaviours can emerge from an individual's reinterpretation of experiences received from other agents whereby higher communication frequency yields better group performance. An interface is described that visualises the memory contents of an agent. From an observer perspective, the agents' behaviours can be understood as individually structured, and temporally grounded, and, with the communication of experience, can be seen to rely on emergent mixed narrative reconstructions combining the experiences of several agents. This research leads to insights into how bottom-up story-telling and autobiographic reconstruction in autonomous, adaptive agents allow temporally grounded behaviour to emerge. The article concludes with a discussion of possible implications of this research direction for future autobiographic, narrative agents.

Coordinating space telescope operations in an integrated planning and scheduling architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Smith, Stephen F.; Cesta, Amedeo; D'Aloisi, Daniela

1992-01-01

The Heuristic Scheduling Testbed System (HSTS), a software architecture for integrated planning and scheduling, is discussed. The architecture has been applied to the problem of generating observation schedules for the Hubble Space Telescope. This problem is representative of the class of problems that can be addressed: their complexity lies in the interaction of resource allocation and auxiliary task expansion. The architecture deals with this interaction by viewing planning and scheduling as two complementary aspects of the more general process of constructing behaviors of a dynamical system. The principal components of the software architecture are described, indicating how to model the structure and dynamics of a system, how to represent schedules at multiple levels of abstraction in the temporal database, and how the problem solving machinery operates. A scheduler for the detailed management of Hubble Space Telescope operations that has been developed within HSTS is described. Experimental performance results are given that indicate the utility and practicality of the approach.

Data-driven Modeling of Metal-oxide Sensors with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosangi, Rakesh; Gutierrez-Osuna, Ricardo

2011-09-01

We present a data-driven probabilistic framework to model the transient response of MOX sensors modulated with a sequence of voltage steps. Analytical models of MOX sensors are usually built based on the physico-chemical properties of the sensing materials. Although building these models provides an insight into the sensor behavior, they also require a thorough understanding of the underlying operating principles. Here we propose a data-driven approach to characterize the dynamical relationship between sensor inputs and outputs. Namely, we use dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), probabilistic models that represent temporal relations between a set of random variables. We identify a set of control variables that influence the sensor responses, create a graphical representation that captures the causal relations between these variables, and finally train the model with experimental data. We validated the approach on experimental data in terms of predictive accuracy and classification performance. Our results show that DBNs can accurately predict the dynamic response of MOX sensors, as well as capture the discriminatory information present in the sensor transients.

Merging daily sea surface temperature data from multiple satellites using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shaolei; Yang, Xiaofeng; Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important variable for understanding interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. SST fusion is crucial for acquiring SST products of high spatial resolution and coverage. This study introduces a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method for blending daily SSTs from multiple satellite sensors. A new spatiotemporal covariance model of an SST field is built to integrate not only single-day SSTs but also time-adjacent SSTs. In addition, AVHRR 30-year SST climatology data are introduced as soft data at the estimation points to improve the accuracy of blended results within the BME framework. The merged SSTs, with a spatial resolution of 4 km and a temporal resolution of 24 hours, are produced in the Western Pacific Ocean region to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed methodology. Comparisons with in situ drifting buoy observations show that the merged SSTs are accurate and the bias and root-mean-square errors for the comparison are 0.15°C and 0.72°C, respectively.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Children with autism spectrum disorder show reduced adaptation to number

PubMed Central

Turi, Marco; Burr, David C.; Igliozzi, Roberta; Aagten-Murphy, David; Muratori, Filippo; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Autism is known to be associated with major perceptual atypicalities. We have recently proposed a general model to account for these atypicalities in Bayesian terms, suggesting that autistic individuals underuse predictive information or priors. We tested this idea by measuring adaptation to numerosity stimuli in children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). After exposure to large numbers of items, stimuli with fewer items appear to be less numerous (and vice versa). We found that children with ASD adapted much less to numerosity than typically developing children, although their precision for numerosity discrimination was similar to that of the typical group. This result reinforces recent findings showing reduced adaptation to facial identity in ASD and goes on to show that reduced adaptation is not unique to faces (social stimuli with special significance in autism), but occurs more generally, for both parietal and temporal functions, probably reflecting inefficiencies in the adaptive interpretation of sensory signals. These results provide strong support for the Bayesian theories of autism. PMID:26056294

Temporal efficiency evaluation and small-worldness characterization in temporal networks

PubMed Central

Dai, Zhongxiang; Chen, Yu; Li, Junhua; Fam, Johnson; Bezerianos, Anastasios; Sun, Yu

2016-01-01

Numerous real-world systems can be modeled as networks. To date, most network studies have been conducted assuming stationary network characteristics. Many systems, however, undergo topological changes over time. Temporal networks, which incorporate time into conventional network models, are therefore more accurate representations of such dynamic systems. Here, we introduce a novel generalized analytical framework for temporal networks, which enables 1) robust evaluation of the efficiency of temporal information exchange using two new network metrics and 2) quantitative inspection of the temporal small-worldness. Specifically, we define new robust temporal network efficiency measures by incorporating the time dependency of temporal distance. We propose a temporal regular network model, and based on this plus the redefined temporal efficiency metrics and widely used temporal random network models, we introduce a quantitative approach for identifying temporal small-world architectures (featuring high temporal network efficiency both globally and locally). In addition, within this framework, we can uncover network-specific dynamic structures. Applications to brain networks, international trade networks, and social networks reveal prominent temporal small-world properties with distinct dynamic network structures. We believe that the framework can provide further insight into dynamic changes in the network topology of various real-world systems and significantly promote research on temporal networks. PMID:27682314

Temporal efficiency evaluation and small-worldness characterization in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Zhongxiang; Chen, Yu; Li, Junhua; Fam, Johnson; Bezerianos, Anastasios; Sun, Yu

2016-09-01

Numerous real-world systems can be modeled as networks. To date, most network studies have been conducted assuming stationary network characteristics. Many systems, however, undergo topological changes over time. Temporal networks, which incorporate time into conventional network models, are therefore more accurate representations of such dynamic systems. Here, we introduce a novel generalized analytical framework for temporal networks, which enables 1) robust evaluation of the efficiency of temporal information exchange using two new network metrics and 2) quantitative inspection of the temporal small-worldness. Specifically, we define new robust temporal network efficiency measures by incorporating the time dependency of temporal distance. We propose a temporal regular network model, and based on this plus the redefined temporal efficiency metrics and widely used temporal random network models, we introduce a quantitative approach for identifying temporal small-world architectures (featuring high temporal network efficiency both globally and locally). In addition, within this framework, we can uncover network-specific dynamic structures. Applications to brain networks, international trade networks, and social networks reveal prominent temporal small-world properties with distinct dynamic network structures. We believe that the framework can provide further insight into dynamic changes in the network topology of various real-world systems and significantly promote research on temporal networks.

Self-Supervised Video Hashing With Hierarchical Binary Auto-Encoder.

PubMed

Song, Jingkuan; Zhang, Hanwang; Li, Xiangpeng; Gao, Lianli; Wang, Meng; Hong, Richang

2018-07-01

Existing video hash functions are built on three isolated stages: frame pooling, relaxed learning, and binarization, which have not adequately explored the temporal order of video frames in a joint binary optimization model, resulting in severe information loss. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised video hashing framework dubbed self-supervised video hashing (SSVH), which is able to capture the temporal nature of videos in an end-to-end learning to hash fashion. We specifically address two central problems: 1) how to design an encoder-decoder architecture to generate binary codes for videos and 2) how to equip the binary codes with the ability of accurate video retrieval. We design a hierarchical binary auto-encoder to model the temporal dependencies in videos with multiple granularities, and embed the videos into binary codes with less computations than the stacked architecture. Then, we encourage the binary codes to simultaneously reconstruct the visual content and neighborhood structure of the videos. Experiments on two real-world data sets show that our SSVH method can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art methods and achieve the current best performance on the task of unsupervised video retrieval.

A Spiking Neural Network System for Robust Sequence Recognition.

PubMed

Yu, Qiang; Yan, Rui; Tang, Huajin; Tan, Kay Chen; Li, Haizhou

2016-03-01

This paper proposes a biologically plausible network architecture with spiking neurons for sequence recognition. This architecture is a unified and consistent system with functional parts of sensory encoding, learning, and decoding. This is the first systematic model attempting to reveal the neural mechanisms considering both the upstream and the downstream neurons together. The whole system is a consistent temporal framework, where the precise timing of spikes is employed for information processing and cognitive computing. Experimental results show that the system is competent to perform the sequence recognition, being robust to noisy sensory inputs and invariant to changes in the intervals between input stimuli within a certain range. The classification ability of the temporal learning rule used in the system is investigated through two benchmark tasks that outperform the other two widely used learning rules for classification. The results also demonstrate the computational power of spiking neurons over perceptrons for processing spatiotemporal patterns. In summary, the system provides a general way with spiking neurons to encode external stimuli into spatiotemporal spikes, to learn the encoded spike patterns with temporal learning rules, and to decode the sequence order with downstream neurons. The system structure would be beneficial for developments in both hardware and software.

Self-Supervised Video Hashing With Hierarchical Binary Auto-Encoder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jingkuan; Zhang, Hanwang; Li, Xiangpeng; Gao, Lianli; Wang, Meng; Hong, Richang

2018-07-01

Existing video hash functions are built on three isolated stages: frame pooling, relaxed learning, and binarization, which have not adequately explored the temporal order of video frames in a joint binary optimization model, resulting in severe information loss. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised video hashing framework dubbed Self-Supervised Video Hashing (SSVH), that is able to capture the temporal nature of videos in an end-to-end learning-to-hash fashion. We specifically address two central problems: 1) how to design an encoder-decoder architecture to generate binary codes for videos; and 2) how to equip the binary codes with the ability of accurate video retrieval. We design a hierarchical binary autoencoder to model the temporal dependencies in videos with multiple granularities, and embed the videos into binary codes with less computations than the stacked architecture. Then, we encourage the binary codes to simultaneously reconstruct the visual content and neighborhood structure of the videos. Experiments on two real-world datasets (FCVID and YFCC) show that our SSVH method can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art methods and achieve the currently best performance on the task of unsupervised video retrieval.

Identification of Watershed-scale Critical Source Areas Using Bayesian Maximum Entropy Spatiotemporal Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roostaee, M.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

The states' environmental agencies are required by The Clean Water Act to assess all waterbodies and evaluate potential sources of impairments. Spatial and temporal distributions of water quality parameters are critical in identifying Critical Source Areas (CSAs). However, due to limitations in monetary resources and a large number of waterbodies, available monitoring stations are typically sparse with intermittent periods of data collection. Hence, scarcity of water quality data is a major obstacle in addressing sources of pollution through management strategies. In this study spatiotemporal Bayesian Maximum Entropy method (BME) is employed to model the inherent temporal and spatial variability of measured water quality indicators such as Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration for Turkey Creek Watershed. Turkey Creek is located in northern Louisiana and has been listed in 303(d) list for DO impairment since 2014 in Louisiana Water Quality Inventory Reports due to agricultural practices. BME method is proved to provide more accurate estimates than the methods of purely spatial analysis by incorporating space/time distribution and uncertainty in available measured soft and hard data. This model would be used to estimate DO concentration at unmonitored locations and times and subsequently identifying CSAs. The USDA's crop-specific land cover data layers of the watershed were then used to determine those practices/changes that led to low DO concentration in identified CSAs. Primary results revealed that cultivation of corn and soybean as well as urban runoff are main contributing sources in low dissolved oxygen in Turkey Creek Watershed.

Intelligent Hardware-Enabled Sensor and Software Safety and Health Management for Autonomous UAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozier, Kristin Y.; Schumann, Johann; Ippolito, Corey

2015-01-01

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) can only be deployed if they can effectively complete their mission and respond to failures and uncertain environmental conditions while maintaining safety with respect to other aircraft as well as humans and property on the ground. We propose to design a real-time, onboard system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor essential system components such as sensors, software, and hardware systems for detection and diagnosis of failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the ight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on-the- y temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power hardware realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in order to avoid overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certi cation of ight software due to instrumentation. No currently available SHM capabilities (or combinations of currently existing SHM capabilities) come anywhere close to satisfying these three criteria yet NASA will require such intelligent, hardwareenabled sensor and software safety and health management for introducing autonomous UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). We propose a novel approach of creating modular building blocks for combining responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. Our proposed research program includes both developing this novel approach and demonstrating its capabilities using the NASA Swift UAS as a demonstration platform.

Millisecond-timescale local network coding in the rat primary somatosensory cortex.

PubMed

Eldawlatly, Seif; Oweiss, Karim G

2011-01-01

Correlation among neocortical neurons is thought to play an indispensable role in mediating sensory processing of external stimuli. The role of temporal precision in this correlation has been hypothesized to enhance information flow along sensory pathways. Its role in mediating the integration of information at the output of these pathways, however, remains poorly understood. Here, we examined spike timing correlation between simultaneously recorded layer V neurons within and across columns of the primary somatosensory cortex of anesthetized rats during unilateral whisker stimulation. We used bayesian statistics and information theory to quantify the causal influence between the recorded cells with millisecond precision. For each stimulated whisker, we inferred stable, whisker-specific, dynamic bayesian networks over many repeated trials, with network similarity of 83.3±6% within whisker, compared to only 50.3±18% across whiskers. These networks further provided information about whisker identity that was approximately 6 times higher than what was provided by the latency to first spike and 13 times higher than what was provided by the spike count of individual neurons examined separately. Furthermore, prediction of individual neurons' precise firing conditioned on knowledge of putative pre-synaptic cell firing was 3 times higher than predictions conditioned on stimulus onset alone. Taken together, these results suggest the presence of a temporally precise network coding mechanism that integrates information across neighboring columns within layer V about vibrissa position and whisking kinetics to mediate whisker movement by motor areas innervated by layer V.

Evidence for Two Neutrino Bursts from SN1987A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentim, Rodolfo; Horvath, Jorge E.; Rangel, Eraldo M.

The SN1987A in the Giant Magellanic Cloud was an amazing and extraordinary event because it was detected in real time for different neutrinos experiments (νs) around the world. Approximate ˜ 25 events were observed in three different experiments: Kamiokande II (KII) ˜ 12, Irvine-Michigan-Brookhaven (IMB) ˜ 8 e Baksan ˜ 5, plus a contrived burst at Mont Blanc (Liquid Scintillator Detector - LSD) later dismissed because of energetic requirements (Aglietta et al. 1988). The neutrinos have an important play role into the neutron star newborn: at the moment when the supernova explodes the compact object remnant is freezing by neutrinos ( ˜ 99% energy is lost in the few seconds of the explosion). The work is motivated by neutrinos’ event in relation arrival times where there is a temporal gap between set of events ( ˜ 6s). The first part of dataset came from the ordinary mechanism of freezing and the second part suggests different mechanism of neutrinos production. We tested two models of cooling for neutrinos from SN1987A: 1st an exponential cooling is an ordinary model of cooling and 2nd a two-step temperature model that it considers two bursts separated with temporal gap. Our analysis was done with Bayesian tools (Bayesian Information Criterion - BIC) The result showed strong evidence in favor of a two-step model against one single exponential cooling (ln Bij > 5.0), and suggests the existence of two neutrino bursts at the moment the neutron star was born.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Unraveling multiple changes in complex climate time series using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2016-04-01

Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system. The precise detection and basic characterization of underlying changes is therefore of particular importance in environmental sciences. We present a kernel-based Bayesian inference approach to investigate direct as well as indirect climate observations for multiple generic transition events. In order to develop a diagnostic approach designed to capture a variety of natural processes, the basic statistical features of central tendency and dispersion are used to locally approximate a complex time series by a generic transition model. A Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of such a transition. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes occurring at different temporal scales, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. Thus, based on a generic transition model a probability expression is derived that is capable to indicate multiple changes within a complex time series. We discuss the method's performance by investigating direct and indirect climate observations. The approach is applied to environmental time series (about 100 a), from the weather station in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and confirms documented instrumentation changes. Moreover, the approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records from the ODP sites 659, 721/722 and 967 interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period (about 5 Ma). The detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations coinciding with established global climate events.

Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Dwyer, Greg; Dukic, Vanja

2013-01-01

Estimates of a disease’s basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models to a series of 13 smallpox outbreaks. Five outbreaks occurred in populations that had been previously exposed to smallpox, while the remaining eight occurred in Native-American populations that were naïve to the disease at the time. The Native-American outbreaks were close in a spatial and temporal sense. Using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), we show that the best model includes population-specific R0 values. These differences in R0 values may, in part, be due to differences in genetic background, social structure, or food and water availability. As a result of these inter-population differences, the overall uncertainty associated with the “population average” value of smallpox R0 is larger, a finding that can have important consequences for controlling epidemics. In general, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to properly account for the uncertainty associated with multiple epidemics, provide a clearer understanding of variability in epidemic dynamics, and yield a better assessment of the range of potential risks and consequences that decision makers face. PMID:24021521

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Scheme for Estimating Erosion Rates Under Current Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2014-12-01

Computational modeling of surface erosion processes is inherently difficult because of the four-dimensional nature of the problem and the multiple temporal and spatial scales that govern individual mechanisms. Landscapes are modified via surface and fluvial erosion and exhumation, each of which takes place over a range of time scales. Traditional field measurements of erosion/exhumation rates are scale dependent, often valid for a single point-wise location or averaging over large aerial extents and periods with intense and mild erosion. We present a method of remotely estimating erosion rates using a Bayesian hierarchical model based upon the stream power erosion law (SPEL). A Bayesian approach allows for estimating erosion rates using the deterministic relationship given by the SPEL and data on channel slopes and precipitation at the basin and sub-basin scale. The spatial scale associated with this framework is the elevation class, where each class is characterized by distinct morphologic behavior observed through different modes in the distribution of basin outlet elevations. Interestingly, the distributions of first-order outlets are similar in shape and extent to the distribution of precipitation events (i.e. individual storms) over a 14-year period between 1998-2011. We demonstrate an application of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for five basins and one intermontane basin located in the central Andes between 5S and 20S. Using remotely sensed data of current annual precipitation rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and topography from a high resolution (3 arc-seconds) digital elevation map (DEM), our erosion rate estimates are consistent with decadal-scale estimates based on landslide mapping and sediment flux observations and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates from thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides.

A Bayesian procedure for evaluating the frequency of calibration factor updates in highway safety manual (HSM) applications.

PubMed

Saha, Dibakar; Alluri, Priyanka; Gan, Albert

2017-01-01

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) presents statistical models to quantitatively estimate an agency's safety performance. The models were developed using data from only a few U.S. states. To account for the effects of the local attributes and temporal factors on crash occurrence, agencies are required to calibrate the HSM-default models for crash predictions. The manual suggests updating calibration factors every two to three years, or preferably on an annual basis. Given that the calibration process involves substantial time, effort, and resources, a comprehensive analysis of the required calibration factor update frequency is valuable to the agencies. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to evaluate the HSM's recommendation and determine the required frequency of calibration factor updates. A robust Bayesian estimation procedure is used to assess the variation between calibration factors computed annually, biennially, and triennially using data collected from over 2400 miles of segments and over 700 intersections on urban and suburban facilities in Florida. Bayesian model yields a posterior distribution of the model parameters that give credible information to infer whether the difference between calibration factors computed at specified intervals is credibly different from the null value which represents unaltered calibration factors between the comparison years or in other words, zero difference. The concept of the null value is extended to include the range of values that are practically equivalent to zero. Bayesian inference shows that calibration factors based on total crash frequency are required to be updated every two years in cases where the variations between calibration factors are not greater than 0.01. When the variations are between 0.01 and 0.05, calibration factors based on total crash frequency could be updated every three years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Bayesian Geostatistical Aquifer Characterization at the Hanford 300 Area using Tracer Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie S.

2012-06-01

Tracer testing under natural or forced gradient flow holds the potential to provide useful information for characterizing subsurface properties, through monitoring, modeling and interpretation of the tracer plume migration in an aquifer. Non-reactive tracer experiments were conducted at the Hanford 300 Area, along with constant-rate injection tests and electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF) profiling. A Bayesian data assimilation technique, the method of anchored distributions (MAD) [Rubin et al., 2010], was applied to assimilate the experimental tracer test data with the other types of data and to infer the three-dimensional heterogeneous structure of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone of themore » Hanford formation. In this study, the Bayesian prior information on the underlying random hydraulic conductivity field was obtained from previous field characterization efforts using the constant-rate injection tests and the EBF data. The posterior distribution of the conductivity field was obtained by further conditioning the field on the temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves at various observation wells. MAD was implemented with the massively-parallel three-dimensional flow and transport code PFLOTRAN to cope with the highly transient flow boundary conditions at the site and to meet the computational demands of MAD. A synthetic study proved that the proposed method could effectively invert tracer test data to capture the essential spatial heterogeneity of the three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. Application of MAD to actual field data shows that the hydrogeological model, when conditioned on the tracer test data, can reproduce the tracer transport behavior better than the field characterized without the tracer test data. This study successfully demonstrates that MAD can sequentially assimilate multi-scale multi-type field data through a consistent Bayesian framework.« less

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis 10

PubMed Central

de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Yamamura, Mellina; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease. PMID:29742272

Spatial and temporal aspects of navigation in two neurological patients.

PubMed

van der Ham, Ineke J M; van Zandvoort, Martine J E; Meilinger, Tobias; Bosch, Sander E; Kant, Neeltje; Postma, Albert

2010-07-14

We present two cases (A.C. and W.J.) with navigation problems resulting from parieto-occipital right hemisphere damage. For both the cases, performance on the neuropsychological tests did not indicate specific impairments in spatial processing, despite severe subjective complaints of spatial disorientation. Various aspects of navigation were tested in a new virtual reality task, the Virtual Tübingen task. A double dissociation between spatial and temporal deficits was found; A.C. was impaired in route ordering, a temporal test, whereas W.J. was impaired in scene recognition and route continuation, which are spatial in nature. These findings offer important insights in the functional and neural architecture of navigation.

Lip-reading aids word recognition most in moderate noise: a Bayesian explanation using high-dimensional feature space.

PubMed

Ma, Wei Ji; Zhou, Xiang; Ross, Lars A; Foxe, John J; Parra, Lucas C

2009-01-01

Watching a speaker's facial movements can dramatically enhance our ability to comprehend words, especially in noisy environments. From a general doctrine of combining information from different sensory modalities (the principle of inverse effectiveness), one would expect that the visual signals would be most effective at the highest levels of auditory noise. In contrast, we find, in accord with a recent paper, that visual information improves performance more at intermediate levels of auditory noise than at the highest levels, and we show that a novel visual stimulus containing only temporal information does the same. We present a Bayesian model of optimal cue integration that can explain these conflicts. In this model, words are regarded as points in a multidimensional space and word recognition is a probabilistic inference process. When the dimensionality of the feature space is low, the Bayesian model predicts inverse effectiveness; when the dimensionality is high, the enhancement is maximal at intermediate auditory noise levels. When the auditory and visual stimuli differ slightly in high noise, the model makes a counterintuitive prediction: as sound quality increases, the proportion of reported words corresponding to the visual stimulus should first increase and then decrease. We confirm this prediction in a behavioral experiment. We conclude that auditory-visual speech perception obeys the same notion of optimality previously observed only for simple multisensory stimuli.

A new application of the phase-field method for understanding the mechanisms of nuclear architecture reorganization.

PubMed

Lee, S Seirin; Tashiro, S; Awazu, A; Kobayashi, R

2017-01-01

Specific features of nuclear architecture are important for the functional organization of the nucleus, and chromatin consists of two forms, heterochromatin and euchromatin. Conventional nuclear architecture is observed when heterochromatin is enriched at nuclear periphery, and it represents the primary structure in the majority of eukaryotic cells, including the rod cells of diurnal mammals. In contrast to this, inverted nuclear architecture is observed when the heterochromatin is distributed at the center of the nucleus, which occurs in the rod cells of nocturnal mammals. The inverted architecture found in the rod cells of the adult mouse is formed through the reorganization of conventional architecture during terminal differentiation. Although a previous experimental approach has demonstrated the relationship between these two nuclear architecture types at the molecular level, the mechanisms underlying long-range reorganization processes remain unknown. The details of nuclear structures and their spatial and temporal dynamics remain to be elucidated. Therefore, a comprehensive approach, using mathematical modeling, is required, in order to address these questions. Here, we propose a new mathematical approach to the understanding of nuclear architecture dynamics using the phase-field method. We successfully recreated the process of nuclear architecture reorganization, and showed that it is robustly induced by physical features, independent of a specific genotype. Our study demonstrates the potential of phase-field method application in the life science fields.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL YIELD DATA WITH AN APPLICATION TO PRICING CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTS

PubMed Central

Ozaki, Vitor A.; Ghosh, Sujit K.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Shirota, Ricardo

2009-01-01

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Paraná (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited. PMID:19890450

Contextual and temporal clinical guidelines.

PubMed Central

Guarnero, A.; Marzuoli, M.; Molino, G.; Terenziani, P.; Torchio, M.; Vanni, K.

1998-01-01

In this paper, we propose an approach for managing clinical guidelines. We sketch a modular architecture, allowing us to separate conceptually distinct aspects in the management and use of clinical guidelines. In particular, we describe the clinical guidelines knowledge representation module and we sketch the acquisition module. The main focus of the paper is the definition of an expressive formalism for representing clinical guidelines, which allows one to deal with the context dependent character of clinical guidelines and takes into account different temporal aspects. PMID:9929306

Exploring multiple feature combination strategies with a recurrent neural network architecture for off-line handwriting recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioulet, L.; Bideault, G.; Chatelain, C.; Paquet, T.; Brunessaux, S.

2015-01-01

The BLSTM-CTC is a novel recurrent neural network architecture that has outperformed previous state of the art algorithms in tasks such as speech recognition or handwriting recognition. It has the ability to process long term dependencies in temporal signals in order to label unsegmented data. This paper describes different ways of combining features using a BLSTM-CTC architecture. Not only do we explore the low level combination (feature space combination) but we also explore high level combination (decoding combination) and mid-level (internal system representation combination). The results are compared on the RIMES word database. Our results show that the low level combination works best, thanks to the powerful data modeling of the LSTM neurons.

Improving the Accuracy of Planet Occurrence Rates from Kepler Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Danley C.; Ford, Eric B.; Ragozzine, Darin; Morehead, Robert C.

2018-05-01

We present a new framework to characterize the occurrence rates of planet candidates identified by Kepler based on hierarchical Bayesian modeling, approximate Bayesian computing (ABC), and sequential importance sampling. For this study, we adopt a simple 2D grid in planet radius and orbital period as our model and apply our algorithm to estimate occurrence rates for Q1–Q16 planet candidates orbiting solar-type stars. We arrive at significantly increased planet occurrence rates for small planet candidates (R p < 1.25 R ⊕) at larger orbital periods (P > 80 day) compared to the rates estimated by the more common inverse detection efficiency method (IDEM). Our improved methodology estimates that the occurrence rate density of small planet candidates in the habitable zone of solar-type stars is {1.6}-0.5+1.2 per factor of 2 in planet radius and orbital period. Additionally, we observe a local minimum in the occurrence rate for strong planet candidates marginalized over orbital period between 1.5 and 2 R ⊕ that is consistent with previous studies. For future improvements, the forward modeling approach of ABC is ideally suited to incorporating multiple populations, such as planets, astrophysical false positives, and pipeline false alarms, to provide accurate planet occurrence rates and uncertainties. Furthermore, ABC provides a practical statistical framework for answering complex questions (e.g., frequency of different planetary architectures) and providing sound uncertainties, even in the face of complex selection effects, observational biases, and follow-up strategies. In summary, ABC offers a powerful tool for accurately characterizing a wide variety of astrophysical populations.

Implementation of RF Circuitry for Real-Time Digital Beam-Forming SAR Calibration Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horst, Stephen J.; Hoffman, James P.; Perkovic-Martin, Dragana; Shaffer, Scott; Thrivikraman, Tushar; Yates, Phil; Veilleux, Louise

2012-01-01

The SweepSAR architecture for space-borne remote sensing applications is an enabling technology for reducing the temporal baseline of repeat-pass interferometers while maintaining near-global coverage. As part of this architecture, real-time digital beam-forming would be performed on the radar return signals across multiple channels. Preserving the accuracy of the combined return data requires real-time calibration of the transmit and receive RF paths on each channel. This paper covers several of the design considerations necessary to produce a practical implementation of this concept.

Spatio-temporal modeling and optimization of a deformable-grating compressor for short high-energy laser pulses

DOE PAGES

Qiao, Jie; Papa, J.; Liu, X.

2015-09-24

Monolithic large-scale diffraction gratings are desired to improve the performance of high-energy laser systems and scale them to higher energy, but the surface deformation of these diffraction gratings induce spatio-temporal coupling that is detrimental to the focusability and compressibility of the output pulse. A new deformable-grating-based pulse compressor architecture with optimized actuator positions has been designed to correct the spatial and temporal aberrations induced by grating wavefront errors. An integrated optical model has been built to analyze the effect of grating wavefront errors on the spatio-temporal performance of a compressor based on four deformable gratings. Moreover, a 1.5-meter deformable gratingmore » has been optimized using an integrated finite-element-analysis and genetic-optimization model, leading to spatio-temporal performance similar to the baseline design with ideal gratings.« less

Temporal sequence learning in winner-take-all networks of spiking neurons demonstrated in a brain-based device.

PubMed

McKinstry, Jeffrey L; Edelman, Gerald M

2013-01-01

Animal behavior often involves a temporally ordered sequence of actions learned from experience. Here we describe simulations of interconnected networks of spiking neurons that learn to generate patterns of activity in correct temporal order. The simulation consists of large-scale networks of thousands of excitatory and inhibitory neurons that exhibit short-term synaptic plasticity and spike-timing dependent synaptic plasticity. The neural architecture within each area is arranged to evoke winner-take-all (WTA) patterns of neural activity that persist for tens of milliseconds. In order to generate and switch between consecutive firing patterns in correct temporal order, a reentrant exchange of signals between these areas was necessary. To demonstrate the capacity of this arrangement, we used the simulation to train a brain-based device responding to visual input by autonomously generating temporal sequences of motor actions.

Uncertainties in Parameters Estimated with Neural Networks: Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perreault Levasseur, Laurence; Hezaveh, Yashar D.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-11-01

In Hezaveh et al. we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational-lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for obtaining the uncertainties of these parameters. We review the framework of variational inference to obtain approximate posteriors of Bayesian neural networks and apply it to a network trained to estimate the parameters of the Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid plus external shear and total flux magnification. We show that the method can capture the uncertainties due to different levels of noise in the input data, as well as training and architecture-related errors made by the network. To evaluate the accuracy of the resulting uncertainties, we calculate the coverage probabilities of marginalized distributions for each lensing parameter. By tuning a single variational parameter, the dropout rate, we obtain coverage probabilities approximately equal to the confidence levels for which they were calculated, resulting in accurate and precise uncertainty estimates. Our results suggest that the application of approximate Bayesian neural networks to astrophysical modeling problems can be a fast alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chains, allowing orders of magnitude improvement in speed.

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions

PubMed Central

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage. PMID:27468262

The brain ages optimally to model its environment: evidence from sensory learning over the adult lifespan.

PubMed

Moran, Rosalyn J; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl J

2014-01-01

The aging brain shows a progressive loss of neuropil, which is accompanied by subtle changes in neuronal plasticity, sensory learning and memory. Neurophysiologically, aging attenuates evoked responses--including the mismatch negativity (MMN). This is accompanied by a shift in cortical responsivity from sensory (posterior) regions to executive (anterior) regions, which has been interpreted as a compensatory response for cognitive decline. Theoretical neurobiology offers a simpler explanation for all of these effects--from a Bayesian perspective, as the brain is progressively optimized to model its world, its complexity will decrease. A corollary of this complexity reduction is an attenuation of Bayesian updating or sensory learning. Here we confirmed this hypothesis using magnetoencephalographic recordings of the mismatch negativity elicited in a large cohort of human subjects, in their third to ninth decade. Employing dynamic causal modeling to assay the synaptic mechanisms underlying these non-invasive recordings, we found a selective age-related attenuation of synaptic connectivity changes that underpin rapid sensory learning. In contrast, baseline synaptic connectivity strengths were consistently strong over the decades. Our findings suggest that the lifetime accrual of sensory experience optimizes functional brain architectures to enable efficient and generalizable predictions of the world.

Exploring Quantum Dynamics of Continuous Measurement with a Superconducting Qubit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jadbabaie, Arian; Forouzani, Neda; Tan, Dian; Murch, Kater

Weak measurements obtain partial information about a quantum state with minimal backaction. This enables state tracking without immediate collapse to eigenstates, of interest to both experimental and theoretical physics. State tomography and continuous weak measurements may be used to reconstruct the evolution of a single system, known as a quantum trajectory. We examine experimental trajectories of a two-level system at varied measurement strengths with constant unitary drive. Our analysis is applied to a transmon qubit dispersively coupled to a 3D microwave cavity in the circuit QED architecture. The weakly coupled cavity acts as pointer system for QND measurements in the qubit's energy basis. Our results indicate a marked difference in state purity between two approaches for trajectory reconstruction: the Bayesian and Stochastic Master Equation (SME) formalisms. Further, we observe the transition from diffusive to jump-like trajectories, state purity evolution, and a novel, tilted form of the Quantum Zeno effect. This work provides new insight into quantum behavior and prompts further comparison of SME and Bayesian formalisms to understand the nature of quantum systems. Our results are applicable to a variety of fields, from stochastic thermodynamics to quantum control.

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions.

PubMed

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage.

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran.

PubMed

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

PubMed Central

Eybpoosh, Sana; Bahrampour, Abbas; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Azadmanesh, Kayhan; Jahanbakhsh, Fatemeh; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Zolala, Farzaneh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

2016-01-01

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts. PMID:27280293

Methodology for heritage conservation in Belgium based on multi-temporal interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejarano-Urrego, L.; Verstrynge, E.; Shimoni, M.; Lopez, J.; Walstra, J.; Declercq, P.-Y.; Derauw, D.; Hayen, R.; Van Balen, K.

2017-09-01

Soil differential settlements that cause structural damage to heritage buildings are precipitating cultural and economic value losses. Adequate damage assessment as well as protection and preservation of the built patrimony are priorities at national and local levels, so they require advanced integration and analysis of environmental, architectural and historical parameters. The GEPATAR project (GEotechnical and Patrimonial Archives Toolbox for ARchitectural conservation in Belgium) aims to create an online interactive geo-information tool that allows the user to view and to be informed about the Belgian heritage buildings at risk due to differential soil settlements. Multi-temporal interferometry techniques (MTI) have been proven to be a powerful technique for analyzing earth surface deformation patterns through time series of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. These techniques allow to measure ground movements over wide areas at high precision and relatively low cost. In this project, Persistent Scatterer Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (PS-InSAR) and Multidimensional Small Baseline Subsets (MSBAS) are used to measure and monitor the temporal evolution of surface deformations across Belgium. This information is integrated with the Belgian heritage data by means of an interactive toolbox in a GIS environment in order to identify the level of risk. At country scale, the toolbox includes ground deformation hazard maps, geological information, location of patrimony buildings and land use; while at local scale, it includes settlement rates, photographic and historical surveys as well as architectural and geotechnical information. Some case studies are investigated by means of on-site monitoring techniques and stability analysis to evaluate the applied approaches. This paper presents a description of the methodology being implemented in the project together with the case study of the Saint Vincent's church which is located on a former colliery zone. For this building, damage is assessed by means of PSInSAR.

Temporal Dynamics Assessment of Spatial Overlap Pattern of Functional Brain Networks Reveals Novel Functional Architecture of Cerebral Cortex.

PubMed

Jiang, Xi; Li, Xiang; Lv, Jinglei; Zhao, Shijie; Zhang, Shu; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Tuo; Han, Junwei; Guo, Lei; Liu, Tianming

2018-06-01

Various studies in the brain mapping field have demonstrated that there exist multiple concurrent functional networks that are spatially overlapped and interacting with each other during specific task performance to jointly realize the total brain function. Assessing such spatial overlap patterns of functional networks (SOPFNs) based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has thus received increasing interest for brain function studies. However, there are still two crucial issues to be addressed. First, the SOPFNs are assessed over the entire fMRI scan assuming the temporal stationarity, while possibly time-dependent dynamics of the SOPFNs is not sufficiently explored. Second, the SOPFNs are assessed within individual subjects, while group-wise consistency of the SOPFNs is largely unknown. To address the two issues, we propose a novel computational framework of group-wise sparse representation of whole-brain fMRI temporal segments to assess the temporal dynamic spatial patterns of SOPFNs that are consistent across different subjects. Experimental results based on the recently publicly released Human Connectome Project grayordinate task fMRI data demonstrate that meaningful SOPFNs exhibiting dynamic spatial patterns across different time periods are effectively and robustly identified based on the reconstructed concurrent functional networks via the proposed framework. Specifically, those SOPFNs locate significantly more on gyral regions than on sulcal regions across different time periods. These results reveal novel functional architecture of cortical gyri and sulci. Moreover, these results help better understand functional dynamics mechanisms of cerebral cortex in the future.

Complex Processes from Dynamical Architectures with Time-Scale Hierarchy

PubMed Central

Perdikis, Dionysios; Huys, Raoul; Jirsa, Viktor

2011-01-01

The idea that complex motor, perceptual, and cognitive behaviors are composed of smaller units, which are somehow brought into a meaningful relation, permeates the biological and life sciences. However, no principled framework defining the constituent elementary processes has been developed to this date. Consequently, functional configurations (or architectures) relating elementary processes and external influences are mostly piecemeal formulations suitable to particular instances only. Here, we develop a general dynamical framework for distinct functional architectures characterized by the time-scale separation of their constituents and evaluate their efficiency. Thereto, we build on the (phase) flow of a system, which prescribes the temporal evolution of its state variables. The phase flow topology allows for the unambiguous classification of qualitatively distinct processes, which we consider to represent the functional units or modes within the dynamical architecture. Using the example of a composite movement we illustrate how different architectures can be characterized by their degree of time scale separation between the internal elements of the architecture (i.e. the functional modes) and external interventions. We reveal a tradeoff of the interactions between internal and external influences, which offers a theoretical justification for the efficient composition of complex processes out of non-trivial elementary processes or functional modes. PMID:21347363

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel

2016-01-01

Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.

Bayesian population decoding of spiking neurons.

PubMed

Gerwinn, Sebastian; Macke, Jakob; Bethge, Matthias

2009-01-01

The timing of action potentials in spiking neurons depends on the temporal dynamics of their inputs and contains information about temporal fluctuations in the stimulus. Leaky integrate-and-fire neurons constitute a popular class of encoding models, in which spike times depend directly on the temporal structure of the inputs. However, optimal decoding rules for these models have only been studied explicitly in the noiseless case. Here, we study decoding rules for probabilistic inference of a continuous stimulus from the spike times of a population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with threshold noise. We derive three algorithms for approximating the posterior distribution over stimuli as a function of the observed spike trains. In addition to a reconstruction of the stimulus we thus obtain an estimate of the uncertainty as well. Furthermore, we derive a 'spike-by-spike' online decoding scheme that recursively updates the posterior with the arrival of each new spike. We use these decoding rules to reconstruct time-varying stimuli represented by a Gaussian process from spike trains of single neurons as well as neural populations.

Temporal Requirements of the Fragile X Mental Retardation Protein in Modulating Circadian Clock Circuit Synaptic Architecture

PubMed Central

Gatto, Cheryl L.; Broadie, Kendal

2009-01-01

Loss of fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1) gene function is the most common cause of inherited mental retardation and autism spectrum disorders, characterized by attention disorder, hyperactivity and disruption of circadian activity cycles. Pursuit of effective intervention strategies requires determining when the FMR1 product (FMRP) is required in the regulation of neuronal circuitry controlling these behaviors. In the well-characterized Drosophila disease model, loss of the highly conserved dFMRP causes circadian arrhythmicity and conspicuous abnormalities in the circadian clock circuitry. Here, a novel Sholl Analysis was used to quantify over-elaborated synaptic architecture in dfmr1-null small ventrolateral neurons (sLNvs), a key subset of clock neurons. The transgenic Gene-Switch system was employed to drive conditional neuronal dFMRP expression in the dfmr1-null mutant background in order to dissect temporal requirements within the clock circuit. Introduction of dFMRP during early brain development, including the stages of neurogenesis, neuronal fate specification and early pathfinding, provided no rescue of dfmr1 mutant phenotypes. Similarly, restoring normal dFMRP expression in the adult failed to restore circadian circuit architecture. In sharp contrast, supplying dFMRP during a transient window of very late brain development, wherein synaptogenesis and substantial subsequent synaptic reorganization (e.g. use-dependent pruning) occur, provided strong morphological rescue to reestablish normal sLNvs synaptic arbors. We conclude that dFMRP plays a developmentally restricted role in sculpting synaptic architecture in these neurons that cannot be compensated for by later reintroduction of the protein at maturity. PMID:19738924

Enzyme-linked DNA dendrimer nanosensors for acetylcholine

PubMed Central

Walsh, Ryan; Morales, Jennifer M.; Skipwith, Christopher G.; Ruckh, Timothy T.; Clark, Heather A.

2015-01-01

It is currently difficult to measure small dynamics of molecules in the brain with high spatial and temporal resolution while connecting them to the bigger picture of brain function. A step towards understanding the underlying neural networks of the brain is the ability to sense discrete changes of acetylcholine within a synapse. Here we show an efficient method for generating acetylcholine-detecting nanosensors based on DNA dendrimer scaffolds that incorporate butyrylcholinesterase and fluorescein in a nanoscale arrangement. These nanosensors are selective for acetylcholine and reversibly respond to levels of acetylcholine in the neurophysiological range. This DNA dendrimer architecture has the potential to overcome current obstacles to sensing in the synaptic environment, including the nanoscale size constraints of the synapse and the ability to quantify the spatio-temporal fluctuations of neurotransmitter release. By combining the control of nanosensor architecture with the strategic placement of fluorescent reporters and enzymes, this novel nanosensor platform can facilitate the development of new selective imaging tools for neuroscience. PMID:26442999

Enzyme-linked DNA dendrimer nanosensors for acetylcholine.

PubMed

Walsh, Ryan; Morales, Jennifer M; Skipwith, Christopher G; Ruckh, Timothy T; Clark, Heather A

2015-10-07

It is currently difficult to measure small dynamics of molecules in the brain with high spatial and temporal resolution while connecting them to the bigger picture of brain function. A step towards understanding the underlying neural networks of the brain is the ability to sense discrete changes of acetylcholine within a synapse. Here we show an efficient method for generating acetylcholine-detecting nanosensors based on DNA dendrimer scaffolds that incorporate butyrylcholinesterase and fluorescein in a nanoscale arrangement. These nanosensors are selective for acetylcholine and reversibly respond to levels of acetylcholine in the neurophysiological range. This DNA dendrimer architecture has the potential to overcome current obstacles to sensing in the synaptic environment, including the nanoscale size constraints of the synapse and the ability to quantify the spatio-temporal fluctuations of neurotransmitter release. By combining the control of nanosensor architecture with the strategic placement of fluorescent reporters and enzymes, this novel nanosensor platform can facilitate the development of new selective imaging tools for neuroscience.

Enzyme-linked DNA dendrimer nanosensors for acetylcholine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Ryan; Morales, Jennifer M.; Skipwith, Christopher G.; Ruckh, Timothy T.; Clark, Heather A.

2015-10-01

It is currently difficult to measure small dynamics of molecules in the brain with high spatial and temporal resolution while connecting them to the bigger picture of brain function. A step towards understanding the underlying neural networks of the brain is the ability to sense discrete changes of acetylcholine within a synapse. Here we show an efficient method for generating acetylcholine-detecting nanosensors based on DNA dendrimer scaffolds that incorporate butyrylcholinesterase and fluorescein in a nanoscale arrangement. These nanosensors are selective for acetylcholine and reversibly respond to levels of acetylcholine in the neurophysiological range. This DNA dendrimer architecture has the potential to overcome current obstacles to sensing in the synaptic environment, including the nanoscale size constraints of the synapse and the ability to quantify the spatio-temporal fluctuations of neurotransmitter release. By combining the control of nanosensor architecture with the strategic placement of fluorescent reporters and enzymes, this novel nanosensor platform can facilitate the development of new selective imaging tools for neuroscience.

Marker chromosome genomic structure and temporal origin implicate a chromoanasynthesis event in a family with pleiotropic psychiatric phenotypes.

PubMed

Grochowski, Christopher M; Gu, Shen; Yuan, Bo; Tcw, Julia; Brennand, Kristen J; Sebat, Jonathan; Malhotra, Dheeraj; McCarthy, Shane; Rudolph, Uwe; Lindstrand, Anna; Chong, Zechen; Levy, Deborah L; Lupski, James R; Carvalho, Claudia M B

2018-04-25

Small supernumerary marker chromosomes (sSMC) are chromosomal fragments difficult to characterize genomically. Here, we detail a proband with schizoaffective disorder and a mother with bipolar disorder with psychotic features who present with a marker chromosome that segregates with disease. We explored the architecture of this marker and investigated its temporal origin. Array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) analysis revealed three duplications and three triplications that spanned the short arm of chromosome 9, suggestive of a chromoanasynthesis-like event. Segregation of marker genotypes, phased using sSMC mosaicism in the mother, provided evidence that it was generated during a germline-level event in the proband's maternal grandmother. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed to resolve the structure and junctions of the chromosomal fragments, revealing further complexities. While structural variations have been previously associated with neuropsychiatric disorders and marker chromosomes, here we detail the precise architecture, human life-cycle genesis, and propose a DNA replicative/repair mechanism underlying formation. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Deep learning architecture for air quality predictions.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Hu, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Chi, Tianhe

2016-11-01

With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, many developing countries are suffering from heavy air pollution. Governments and citizens have expressed increasing concern regarding air pollution because it affects human health and sustainable development worldwide. Current air quality prediction methods mainly use shallow models; however, these methods produce unsatisfactory results, which inspired us to investigate methods of predicting air quality based on deep architecture models. In this paper, a novel spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL)-based air quality prediction method that inherently considers spatial and temporal correlations is proposed. A stacked autoencoder (SAE) model is used to extract inherent air quality features, and it is trained in a greedy layer-wise manner. Compared with traditional time series prediction models, our model can predict the air quality of all stations simultaneously and shows the temporal stability in all seasons. Moreover, a comparison with the spatiotemporal artificial neural network (STANN), auto regression moving average (ARMA), and support vector regression (SVR) models demonstrates that the proposed method of performing air quality predictions has a superior performance.

(abstract) A High Throughput 3-D Inner Product Processor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daud, Tuan

1996-01-01

A particularily challenging image processing application is the real time scene acquisition and object discrimination. It requires spatio-temporal recognition of point and resolved objects at high speeds with parallel processing algorithms. Neural network paradigms provide fine grain parallism and, when implemented in hardware, offer orders of magnitude speed up. However, neural networks implemented on a VLSI chip are planer architectures capable of efficient processing of linear vector signals rather than 2-D images. Therefore, for processing of images, a 3-D stack of neural-net ICs receiving planar inputs and consuming minimal power are required. Details of the circuits with chip architectures will be described with need to develop ultralow-power electronics. Further, use of the architecture in a system for high-speed processing will be illustrated.

Auto-Associative Recurrent Neural Networks and Long Term Dependencies in Novelty Detection for Audio Surveillance Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, A.; Montefoschi, F.; Rizzo, A.; Diligenti, M.; Festucci, C.

2017-10-01

Machine Learning applied to Automatic Audio Surveillance has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. In spite of several investigations based on a large number of different approaches, little attention had been paid to the environmental temporal evolution of the input signal. In this work, we propose an exploration in this direction comparing the temporal correlations extracted at the feature level with the one learned by a representational structure. To this aim we analysed the prediction performances of a Recurrent Neural Network architecture varying the length of the processed input sequence and the size of the time window used in the feature extraction. Results corroborated the hypothesis that sequential models work better when dealing with data characterized by temporal order. However, so far the optimization of the temporal dimension remains an open issue.

Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using a latent space model for bipartite networks

PubMed Central

Friel, Nial; Rastelli, Riccardo; Wyse, Jason; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We analyze the temporal bipartite network of the leading Irish companies and their directors from 2003 to 2013, encompassing the end of the Celtic Tiger boom and the ensuing financial crisis in 2008. We focus on the evolution of company interlocks, whereby a company director simultaneously sits on two or more boards. We develop a statistical model for this dataset by embedding the positions of companies and directors in a latent space. The temporal evolution of the network is modeled through three levels of Markovian dependence: one on the model parameters, one on the companies’ latent positions, and one on the edges themselves. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference. Our analysis reveals that the level of interlocking, as measured by a contraction of the latent space, increased before and during the crisis, reaching a peak in 2009, and has generally stabilized since then. PMID:27247395

A spatial model of bird abundance as adjusted for detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P.M.; Mcmillan, G.P.; Camp, R.J.; Pratt, T.K.

2009-01-01

Modeling the spatial distribution of animals can be complicated by spatial and temporal effects (i.e. spatial autocorrelation and trends in abundance over time) and other factors such as imperfect detection probabilities and observation-related nuisance variables. Recent advances in modeling have demonstrated various approaches that handle most of these factors but which require a degree of sampling effort (e.g. replication) not available to many field studies. We present a two-step approach that addresses these challenges to spatially model species abundance. Habitat, spatial and temporal variables were handled with a Bayesian approach which facilitated modeling hierarchically structured data. Predicted abundance was subsequently adjusted to account for imperfect detection and the area effectively sampled for each species. We provide examples of our modeling approach for two endemic Hawaiian nectarivorous honeycreepers: 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea and 'apapane Himatione sanguinea. ?? 2009 Ecography.

NasoNet, modeling the spread of nasopharyngeal cancer with networks of probabilistic events in discrete time.

PubMed

Galán, S F; Aguado, F; Díez, F J; Mira, J

2002-07-01

The spread of cancer is a non-deterministic dynamic process. As a consequence, the design of an assistant system for the diagnosis and prognosis of the extent of a cancer should be based on a representation method that deals with both uncertainty and time. The ultimate goal is to know the stage of development of a cancer in a patient before selecting the appropriate treatment. A network of probabilistic events in discrete time (NPEDT) is a type of Bayesian network for temporal reasoning that models the causal mechanisms associated with the time evolution of a process. This paper describes NasoNet, a system that applies NPEDTs to the diagnosis and prognosis of nasopharyngeal cancer. We have made use of temporal noisy gates to model the dynamic causal interactions that take place in the domain. The methodology we describe is general enough to be applied to any other type of cancer.

How previous experience shapes perception in different sensory modalities

PubMed Central

Snyder, Joel S.; Schwiedrzik, Caspar M.; Vitela, A. Davi; Melloni, Lucia

2015-01-01

What has transpired immediately before has a strong influence on how sensory stimuli are processed and perceived. In particular, temporal context can have contrastive effects, repelling perception away from the interpretation of the context stimulus, and attractive effects (TCEs), whereby perception repeats upon successive presentations of the same stimulus. For decades, scientists have documented contrastive and attractive temporal context effects mostly with simple visual stimuli. But both types of effects also occur in other modalities, e.g., audition and touch, and for stimuli of varying complexity, raising the possibility that context effects reflect general computational principles of sensory systems. Neuroimaging shows that contrastive and attractive context effects arise from neural processes in different areas of the cerebral cortex, suggesting two separate operations with distinct functional roles. Bayesian models can provide a functional account of both context effects, whereby prior experience adjusts sensory systems to optimize perception of future stimuli. PMID:26582982

Spatiotemporal dynamics of random stimuli account for trial-to-trial variability in perceptual decision making

PubMed Central

Park, Hame; Lueckmann, Jan-Matthis; von Kriegstein, Katharina; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2016-01-01

Decisions in everyday life are prone to error. Standard models typically assume that errors during perceptual decisions are due to noise. However, it is unclear how noise in the sensory input affects the decision. Here we show that there are experimental tasks for which one can analyse the exact spatio-temporal details of a dynamic sensory noise and better understand variability in human perceptual decisions. Using a new experimental visual tracking task and a novel Bayesian decision making model, we found that the spatio-temporal noise fluctuations in the input of single trials explain a significant part of the observed responses. Our results show that modelling the precise internal representations of human participants helps predict when perceptual decisions go wrong. Furthermore, by modelling precisely the stimuli at the single-trial level, we were able to identify the underlying mechanism of perceptual decision making in more detail than standard models. PMID:26752272

Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using a latent space model for bipartite networks.

PubMed

Friel, Nial; Rastelli, Riccardo; Wyse, Jason; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-06-14

We analyze the temporal bipartite network of the leading Irish companies and their directors from 2003 to 2013, encompassing the end of the Celtic Tiger boom and the ensuing financial crisis in 2008. We focus on the evolution of company interlocks, whereby a company director simultaneously sits on two or more boards. We develop a statistical model for this dataset by embedding the positions of companies and directors in a latent space. The temporal evolution of the network is modeled through three levels of Markovian dependence: one on the model parameters, one on the companies' latent positions, and one on the edges themselves. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference. Our analysis reveals that the level of interlocking, as measured by a contraction of the latent space, increased before and during the crisis, reaching a peak in 2009, and has generally stabilized since then.

Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016.

PubMed

Ukawuba, Israel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2018-04-04

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance. We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002-2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection. Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models. The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.

Global Coverage from Ad-Hoc Constellations in Rideshare Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, Armin; Mercury, Michael; Brown, Shannon

2012-01-01

A promising area of small satellite development is in providing higher temporal resolution than larger satellites. Traditional constellations have required specific orbits and dedicated launch vehicles. In this paper we discuss an alternative architecture in which the individual elements of the constellation are launched as rideshare opportunities. We compare the coverage of such an ad-hoc constellation with more traditional constellations. Coverage analysis is based on actual historical data from rideshare opportunities. Our analysis includes ground coverage and temporal revisits for Polar, Tropics, Temperate, and Global regions, comparing ad-hoc and Walker constellation.

Phased laser array with tailored spectral and coherence properties

DOEpatents

Messerly, Michael J [Danville, CA; Dawson, Jay W [Livermore, CA; Beach, Raymond J [Livermore, CA

2011-03-29

Architectures for coherently combining an array of fiber-based lasers are provided. By matching their lengths to within a few integer multiples of a wavelength, the spatial and temporal properties of a single large laser are replicated, while extending the average or peak pulsed power limit.

Phased laser array with tailored spectral and coherence properties

DOEpatents

Messerly, Michael J; Dawson, Jay W; Beach, Raymond J

2014-05-20

Architectures for coherently combining an array of fiber-based lasers are provided. By matching their lengths to within a few integer multiples of a wavelength, the spatial and temporal properties of a single large laser are replicated, while extending the average or peak pulsed power limit.

Asymmetry and basic pathways in sleep-stage transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Chung-Chuan; Bartsch, Ronny P.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2013-04-01

We study dynamical aspects of sleep micro-architecture. We find that sleep dynamics exhibits a high degree of asymmetry, and that the entire class of sleep-stage transition pathways underlying the complexity of sleep dynamics throughout the night can be characterized by two independent asymmetric transition paths. These basic pathways remain stable under sleep disorders, even though the degree of asymmetry is significantly reduced. Our findings demonstrate an intriguing temporal organization in sleep micro-architecture at short time scales that is typical for physical systems exhibiting self-organized criticality (SOC), and indicates nonequilibrium critical dynamics in brain activity during sleep.

Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2016-04-01

The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

Relationships between probabilistic Boolean networks and dynamic Bayesian networks as models of gene regulatory networks

PubMed Central

Lähdesmäki, Harri; Hautaniemi, Sampsa; Shmulevich, Ilya; Yli-Harja, Olli

2006-01-01

A significant amount of attention has recently been focused on modeling of gene regulatory networks. Two frequently used large-scale modeling frameworks are Bayesian networks (BNs) and Boolean networks, the latter one being a special case of its recent stochastic extension, probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). PBN is a promising model class that generalizes the standard rule-based interactions of Boolean networks into the stochastic setting. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) is a general and versatile model class that is able to represent complex temporal stochastic processes and has also been proposed as a model for gene regulatory systems. In this paper, we concentrate on these two model classes and demonstrate that PBNs and a certain subclass of DBNs can represent the same joint probability distribution over their common variables. The major benefit of introducing the relationships between the models is that it opens up the possibility of applying the standard tools of DBNs to PBNs and vice versa. Hence, the standard learning tools of DBNs can be applied in the context of PBNs, and the inference methods give a natural way of handling the missing values in PBNs which are often present in gene expression measurements. Conversely, the tools for controlling the stationary behavior of the networks, tools for projecting networks onto sub-networks, and efficient learning schemes can be used for DBNs. In other words, the introduced relationships between the models extend the collection of analysis tools for both model classes. PMID:17415411

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE PAGES

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.; ...

2017-05-18

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

Signal Detection and Monitoring Based on Longitudinal Healthcare Data

PubMed Central

Suling, Marc; Pigeot, Iris

2012-01-01

Post-marketing detection and surveillance of potential safety hazards are crucial tasks in pharmacovigilance. To uncover such safety risks, a wide set of techniques has been developed for spontaneous reporting data and, more recently, for longitudinal data. This paper gives a broad overview of the signal detection process and introduces some types of data sources typically used. The most commonly applied signal detection algorithms are presented, covering simple frequentistic methods like the proportional reporting rate or the reporting odds ratio, more advanced Bayesian techniques for spontaneous and longitudinal data, e.g., the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network or the Multi-item Gamma-Poisson Shrinker and methods developed for longitudinal data only, like the IC temporal pattern detection. Additionally, the problem of adjustment for underlying confounding is discussed and the most common strategies to automatically identify false-positive signals are addressed. A drug monitoring technique based on Wald’s sequential probability ratio test is presented. For each method, a real-life application is given, and a wide set of literature for further reading is referenced. PMID:24300373

Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, Peter; van Oijen, Marcel; Buys, Gwen; Tomlinson, Sam

2018-03-01

We present a method for estimating land-use change using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. The approach provides a general framework for combining multiple disparate data sources with a simple model. This allows us to constrain estimates of gross land-use change with reliable national-scale census data, whilst retaining the detailed information available from several other sources. Eight different data sources, with three different data structures, were combined in our posterior estimate of land use and land-use change, and other data sources could easily be added in future. The tendency for observations to underestimate gross land-use change is accounted for by allowing for a skewed distribution in the likelihood function. The data structure produced has high temporal and spatial resolution, and is appropriate for dynamic process-based modelling. Uncertainty is propagated appropriately into the output, so we have a full posterior distribution of output and parameters. The data are available in the widely used netCDF file format from http://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/.

Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Niv, Yael

2015-07-01

In reinforcement learning (RL), a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: What is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: How can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and we describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of RL in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional RL algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Novelty and Inductive Generalization in Human Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Gershman, Samuel J.; Niv, Yael

2015-01-01

In reinforcement learning, a decision maker searching for the most rewarding option is often faced with the question: what is the value of an option that has never been tried before? One way to frame this question is as an inductive problem: how can I generalize my previous experience with one set of options to a novel option? We show how hierarchical Bayesian inference can be used to solve this problem, and describe an equivalence between the Bayesian model and temporal difference learning algorithms that have been proposed as models of reinforcement learning in humans and animals. According to our view, the search for the best option is guided by abstract knowledge about the relationships between different options in an environment, resulting in greater search efficiency compared to traditional reinforcement learning algorithms previously applied to human cognition. In two behavioral experiments, we test several predictions of our model, providing evidence that humans learn and exploit structured inductive knowledge to make predictions about novel options. In light of this model, we suggest a new interpretation of dopaminergic responses to novelty. PMID:25808176

Spatial Modernist Architectural Artistic Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gudkova, T. V.; Gudkov, A. A.

2017-11-01

The development of a single spatial modernist conception had continued until the middle of the twentieth century. The first authors who proposed the new conceptual solutions of an architectural space that had the greatest impact on the further development of architecture were Le Corbusier, Frank Lloyd Wright, Mies van der Rohein. They embodied different approaches within the common modernist spatial concept using the language of morphological, symbolic and phenomenological descriptions of space. The concept was based on the simplification of functional links, integration of internal architectural space with the environment due to the vanishing of boundaries between them and expansion of their interrelation. Le Corbusier proposed a spatio-temporal concept based on the movement and tempo-rhythmics of the space “from inside to outside.” Frank Lloyd Wright proposed the concept of integral space where inner and outer spaces were the parts of a whole. Mies van der Rohein was the author of the universal space concept in which the idea of the “dissolution” of the inner space in the outer space was embodied.

Comparing vector-based and Bayesian memory models using large-scale datasets: User-generated hashtag and tag prediction on Twitter and Stack Overflow.

PubMed

Stanley, Clayton; Byrne, Michael D

2016-12-01

The growth of social media and user-created content on online sites provides unique opportunities to study models of human declarative memory. By framing the task of choosing a hashtag for a tweet and tagging a post on Stack Overflow as a declarative memory retrieval problem, 2 cognitively plausible declarative memory models were applied to millions of posts and tweets and evaluated on how accurately they predict a user's chosen tags. An ACT-R based Bayesian model and a random permutation vector-based model were tested on the large data sets. The results show that past user behavior of tag use is a strong predictor of future behavior. Furthermore, past behavior was successfully incorporated into the random permutation model that previously used only context. Also, ACT-R's attentional weight term was linked to an entropy-weighting natural language processing method used to attenuate high-frequency words (e.g., articles and prepositions). Word order was not found to be a strong predictor of tag use, and the random permutation model performed comparably to the Bayesian model without including word order. This shows that the strength of the random permutation model is not in the ability to represent word order, but rather in the way in which context information is successfully compressed. The results of the large-scale exploration show how the architecture of the 2 memory models can be modified to significantly improve accuracy, and may suggest task-independent general modifications that can help improve model fit to human data in a much wider range of domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Identifying causal networks linking cancer processes and anti-tumor immunity using Bayesian network inference and metagene constructs.

PubMed

Kaiser, Jacob L; Bland, Cassidy L; Klinke, David J

2016-03-01

Cancer arises from a deregulation of both intracellular and intercellular networks that maintain system homeostasis. Identifying the architecture of these networks and how they are changed in cancer is a pre-requisite for designing drugs to restore homeostasis. Since intercellular networks only appear in intact systems, it is difficult to identify how these networks become altered in human cancer using many of the common experimental models. To overcome this, we used the diversity in normal and malignant human tissue samples from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database of human breast cancer to identify the topology associated with intercellular networks in vivo. To improve the underlying biological signals, we constructed Bayesian networks using metagene constructs, which represented groups of genes that are concomitantly associated with different immune and cancer states. We also used bootstrap resampling to establish the significance associated with the inferred networks. In short, we found opposing relationships between cell proliferation and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transformation (EMT) with regards to macrophage polarization. These results were consistent across multiple carcinomas in that proliferation was associated with a type 1 cell-mediated anti-tumor immune response and EMT was associated with a pro-tumor anti-inflammatory response. To address the identifiability of these networks from other datasets, we could identify the relationship between EMT and macrophage polarization with fewer samples when the Bayesian network was generated from malignant samples alone. However, the relationship between proliferation and macrophage polarization was identified with fewer samples when the samples were taken from a combination of the normal and malignant samples. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:470-479, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Distributed Bayesian Computation and Self-Organized Learning in Sheets of Spiking Neurons with Local Lateral Inhibition

PubMed Central

Bill, Johannes; Buesing, Lars; Habenschuss, Stefan; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang; Legenstein, Robert

2015-01-01

During the last decade, Bayesian probability theory has emerged as a framework in cognitive science and neuroscience for describing perception, reasoning and learning of mammals. However, our understanding of how probabilistic computations could be organized in the brain, and how the observed connectivity structure of cortical microcircuits supports these calculations, is rudimentary at best. In this study, we investigate statistical inference and self-organized learning in a spatially extended spiking network model, that accommodates both local competitive and large-scale associative aspects of neural information processing, under a unified Bayesian account. Specifically, we show how the spiking dynamics of a recurrent network with lateral excitation and local inhibition in response to distributed spiking input, can be understood as sampling from a variational posterior distribution of a well-defined implicit probabilistic model. This interpretation further permits a rigorous analytical treatment of experience-dependent plasticity on the network level. Using machine learning theory, we derive update rules for neuron and synapse parameters which equate with Hebbian synaptic and homeostatic intrinsic plasticity rules in a neural implementation. In computer simulations, we demonstrate that the interplay of these plasticity rules leads to the emergence of probabilistic local experts that form distributed assemblies of similarly tuned cells communicating through lateral excitatory connections. The resulting sparse distributed spike code of a well-adapted network carries compressed information on salient input features combined with prior experience on correlations among them. Our theory predicts that the emergence of such efficient representations benefits from network architectures in which the range of local inhibition matches the spatial extent of pyramidal cells that share common afferent input. PMID:26284370

Content and Knowledge Management in a Digital Library and Museum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Jian-Hua; Chang, Jia-Yang; Oyang, Yen-Jen

2000-01-01

Discusses the design of the National Taiwan University Digital Library and Museum that addresses both content and knowledge management. Describes a two-tier repository architecture that facilitates content management, includes an object-oriented model to facilitate the management of temporal information, and eliminates the need to manually…

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Côté, Isabelle M.; Watkinson, Andrew R.

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6–20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services. PMID:19515663

Two-Stream Transformer Networks for Video-based Face Alignment.

PubMed

Liu, Hao; Lu, Jiwen; Feng, Jianjiang; Zhou, Jie

2017-08-01

In this paper, we propose a two-stream transformer networks (TSTN) approach for video-based face alignment. Unlike conventional image-based face alignment approaches which cannot explicitly model the temporal dependency in videos and motivated by the fact that consistent movements of facial landmarks usually occur across consecutive frames, our TSTN aims to capture the complementary information of both the spatial appearance on still frames and the temporal consistency information across frames. To achieve this, we develop a two-stream architecture, which decomposes the video-based face alignment into spatial and temporal streams accordingly. Specifically, the spatial stream aims to transform the facial image to the landmark positions by preserving the holistic facial shape structure. Accordingly, the temporal stream encodes the video input as active appearance codes, where the temporal consistency information across frames is captured to help shape refinements. Experimental results on the benchmarking video-based face alignment datasets show very competitive performance of our method in comparisons to the state-of-the-arts.

Network modulation during complex syntactic processing

PubMed Central

den Ouden, Dirk-Bart; Saur, Dorothee; Mader, Wolfgang; Schelter, Björn; Lukic, Sladjana; Wali, Eisha; Timmer, Jens; Thompson, Cynthia K.

2011-01-01

Complex sentence processing is supported by a left-lateralized neural network including inferior frontal cortex and posterior superior temporal cortex. This study investigates the pattern of connectivity and information flow within this network. We used fMRI BOLD data derived from 12 healthy participants reported in an earlier study (Thompson, C. K., Den Ouden, D. B., Bonakdarpour, B., Garibaldi, K., & Parrish, T. B. (2010b). Neural plasticity and treatment-induced recovery of sentence processing in agrammatism. Neuropsychologia, 48(11), 3211-3227) to identify activation peaks associated with object-cleft over syntactically less complex subject-cleft processing. Directed Partial Correlation Analysis was conducted on time series extracted from participant-specific activation peaks and showed evidence of functional connectivity between four regions, linearly between premotor cortex, inferior frontal gyrus, posterior superior temporal sulcus and anterior middle temporal gyrus. This pattern served as the basis for Dynamic Causal Modeling of networks with a driving input to posterior superior temporal cortex, which likely supports thematic role assignment, and networks with a driving input to inferior frontal cortex, a core region associated with syntactic computation. The optimal model was determined through both frequentist and Bayesian model selection and turned out to reflect a network with a primary drive from inferior frontal cortex and modulation of the connection between inferior frontal and posterior superior temporal cortex by complex sentence processing. The winning model also showed a substantive role for a feedback mechanism from posterior superior temporal cortex back to inferior frontal cortex. We suggest that complex syntactic processing is driven by word-order analysis, supported by inferior frontal cortex, in an interactive relation with posterior superior temporal cortex, which supports verb argument structure processing. PMID:21820518

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Vertically integrated photonic multichip module architecture for vision applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanguay, Armand R., Jr.; Jenkins, B. Keith; von der Malsburg, Christoph; Mel, Bartlett; Holt, Gary; O'Brien, John D.; Biederman, Irving; Madhukar, Anupam; Nasiatka, Patrick; Huang, Yunsong

2000-05-01

The development of a truly smart camera, with inherent capability for low latency semi-autonomous object recognition, tracking, and optimal image capture, has remained an elusive goal notwithstanding tremendous advances in the processing power afforded by VLSI technologies. These features are essential for a number of emerging multimedia- based applications, including enhanced augmented reality systems. Recent advances in understanding of the mechanisms of biological vision systems, together with similar advances in hybrid electronic/photonic packaging technology, offer the possibility of artificial biologically-inspired vision systems with significantly different, yet complementary, strengths and weaknesses. We describe herein several system implementation architectures based on spatial and temporal integration techniques within a multilayered structure, as well as the corresponding hardware implementation of these architectures based on the hybrid vertical integration of multiple silicon VLSI vision chips by means of dense 3D photonic interconnections.

Positioning navigation and timing service applications in cyber physical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Yi; Wu, Xiaojing; Zeng, Lingchuan

2017-10-01

The positioning navigation and timing (PNT) architecture was discussed in detail, whose history, evolvement, current status and future plan were presented, main technologies were listed, advantages and limitations of most technologies were compared, novel approaches were introduced, and future capacities were sketched. The concept of cyber-physical system (CPS) was described and their primary features were interpreted. Then the three-layer architecture of CPS was illustrated. Next CPS requirements on PNT services were analyzed, including requirements on position reference and time reference, requirements on temporal-spatial error monitor, requirements on dynamic services, real-time services, autonomous services, security services and standard services. Finally challenges faced by PNT applications in CPS were concluded. The conclusion was expected to facilitate PNT applications in CPS, and furthermore to provide references to the design and implementation of both architectures.

The Essential Complexity of Auditory Receptive Fields

PubMed Central

Thorson, Ivar L.; Liénard, Jean; David, Stephen V.

2015-01-01

Encoding properties of sensory neurons are commonly modeled using linear finite impulse response (FIR) filters. For the auditory system, the FIR filter is instantiated in the spectro-temporal receptive field (STRF), often in the framework of the generalized linear model. Despite widespread use of the FIR STRF, numerous formulations for linear filters are possible that require many fewer parameters, potentially permitting more efficient and accurate model estimates. To explore these alternative STRF architectures, we recorded single-unit neural activity from auditory cortex of awake ferrets during presentation of natural sound stimuli. We compared performance of > 1000 linear STRF architectures, evaluating their ability to predict neural responses to a novel natural stimulus. Many were able to outperform the FIR filter. Two basic constraints on the architecture lead to the improved performance: (1) factorization of the STRF matrix into a small number of spectral and temporal filters and (2) low-dimensional parameterization of the factorized filters. The best parameterized model was able to outperform the full FIR filter in both primary and secondary auditory cortex, despite requiring fewer than 30 parameters, about 10% of the number required by the FIR filter. After accounting for noise from finite data sampling, these STRFs were able to explain an average of 40% of A1 response variance. The simpler models permitted more straightforward interpretation of sensory tuning properties. They also showed greater benefit from incorporating nonlinear terms, such as short term plasticity, that provide theoretical advances over the linear model. Architectures that minimize parameter count while maintaining maximum predictive power provide insight into the essential degrees of freedom governing auditory cortical function. They also maximize statistical power available for characterizing additional nonlinear properties that limit current auditory models. PMID:26683490

Interfacing sensory input with motor output: does the control architecture converge to a serial process along a single channel?

PubMed Central

van de Kamp, Cornelis; Gawthrop, Peter J.; Gollee, Henrik; Lakie, Martin; Loram, Ian D.

2013-01-01

Modular organization in control architecture may underlie the versatility of human motor control; but the nature of the interface relating sensory input through task-selection in the space of performance variables to control actions in the space of the elemental variables is currently unknown. Our central question is whether the control architecture converges to a serial process along a single channel? In discrete reaction time experiments, psychologists have firmly associated a serial single channel hypothesis with refractoriness and response selection [psychological refractory period (PRP)]. Recently, we developed a methodology and evidence identifying refractoriness in sustained control of an external single degree-of-freedom system. We hypothesize that multi-segmental whole-body control also shows refractoriness. Eight participants controlled their whole body to ensure a head marker tracked a target as fast and accurately as possible. Analysis showed enhanced delays in response to stimuli with close temporal proximity to the preceding stimulus. Consistent with our preceding work, this evidence is incompatible with control as a linear time invariant process. This evidence is consistent with a single-channel serial ballistic process within the intermittent control paradigm with an intermittent interval of around 0.5 s. A control architecture reproducing intentional human movement control must reproduce refractoriness. Intermittent control is designed to provide computational time for an online optimization process and is appropriate for flexible adaptive control. For human motor control we suggest that parallel sensory input converges to a serial, single channel process involving planning, selection, and temporal inhibition of alternative responses prior to low dimensional motor output. Such design could aid robots to reproduce the flexibility of human control. PMID:23675342

3D scene reconstruction based on multi-view distributed video coding in the Zernike domain for mobile applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palma, V.; Carli, M.; Neri, A.

2011-02-01

In this paper a Multi-view Distributed Video Coding scheme for mobile applications is presented. Specifically a new fusion technique between temporal and spatial side information in Zernike Moments domain is proposed. Distributed video coding introduces a flexible architecture that enables the design of very low complex video encoders compared to its traditional counterparts. The main goal of our work is to generate at the decoder the side information that optimally blends temporal and interview data. Multi-view distributed coding performance strongly depends on the side information quality built at the decoder. At this aim for improving its quality a spatial view compensation/prediction in Zernike moments domain is applied. Spatial and temporal motion activity have been fused together to obtain the overall side-information. The proposed method has been evaluated by rate-distortion performances for different inter-view and temporal estimation quality conditions.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian networks for malaria prediction.

PubMed

Haddawy, Peter; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; Sa-Angchai, Patiwat; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Singhasivanon, Pratap

2018-01-01

Targeted intervention and resource allocation are essential for effective malaria control, particularly in remote areas, with predictive models providing important information for decision making. While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating village level models with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The networks are learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. Three types of networks are explored: networks for numeric prediction, networks for outbreak prediction, and networks that incorporate spatial autocorrelation. Evaluation of the numeric prediction network shows that the Bayes net has prediction accuracy in terms of mean absolute error of about 1.4 cases for 1 week prediction and 1.7 cases for 6 week prediction. The network for outbreak prediction has an ROC AUC above 0.9 for all prediction horizons. Comparison of prediction accuracy of both Bayes nets against several traditional modeling approaches shows the Bayes nets to outperform the other models for longer time horizon prediction of high incidence transmission. To model spread of malaria over space, we elaborate the models with links between the village networks. This results in some very large models which would be far too laborious to build by hand. So we represent the models as collections of probability logic rules and automatically generate the networks. Evaluation of the models shows that the autocorrelation links significantly improve prediction accuracy for some villages in regions of high incidence. We conclude that spatiotemporal Bayesian networks are a highly promising modeling alternative for prediction of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

2016-09-01

In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

Single and multiple phenotype QTL analyses of downy mildew resistance in interspecific grapevines.

PubMed

Divilov, Konstantin; Barba, Paola; Cadle-Davidson, Lance; Reisch, Bruce I

2018-05-01

Downy mildew resistance across days post-inoculation, experiments, and years in two interspecific grapevine F 1 families was investigated using linear mixed models and Bayesian networks, and five new QTL were identified. Breeding grapevines for downy mildew disease resistance has traditionally relied on qualitative gene resistance, which can be overcome by pathogen evolution. Analyzing two interspecific F 1 families, both having ancestry derived from Vitis vinifera and wild North American Vitis species, across 2 years and multiple experiments, we found multiple loci associated with downy mildew sporulation and hypersensitive response in both families using a single phenotype model. The loci explained between 7 and 17% of the variance for either phenotype, suggesting a complex genetic architecture for these traits in the two families studied. For two loci, we used RNA-Seq to detect differentially transcribed genes and found that the candidate genes at these loci were likely not NBS-LRR genes. Additionally, using a multiple phenotype Bayesian network analysis, we found effects between the leaf trichome density, hypersensitive response, and sporulation phenotypes. Moderate-high heritabilities were found for all three phenotypes, suggesting that selection for downy mildew resistance is an achievable goal by breeding for either physical- or non-physical-based resistance mechanisms, with the combination of the two possibly providing durable resistance.

Applications of Bayesian spectrum representation in acoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botts, Jonathan M.

This dissertation utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to enhance the solution of inverse problems where the forward model maps to acoustic spectra. A Bayesian solution to filter design inverts a acoustic spectra to pole-zero locations of a discrete-time filter model. Spatial sound field analysis with a spherical microphone array is a data analysis problem that requires inversion of spatio-temporal spectra to directions of arrival. As with many inverse problems, a probabilistic analysis results in richer solutions than can be achieved with ad-hoc methods. In the filter design problem, the Bayesian inversion results in globally optimal coefficient estimates as well as an estimate the most concise filter capable of representing the given spectrum, within a single framework. This approach is demonstrated on synthetic spectra, head-related transfer function spectra, and measured acoustic reflection spectra. The Bayesian model-based analysis of spatial room impulse responses is presented as an analogous problem with equally rich solution. The model selection mechanism provides an estimate of the number of arrivals, which is necessary to properly infer the directions of simultaneous arrivals. Although, spectrum inversion problems are fairly ubiquitous, the scope of this dissertation has been limited to these two and derivative problems. The Bayesian approach to filter design is demonstrated on an artificial spectrum to illustrate the model comparison mechanism and then on measured head-related transfer functions to show the potential range of application. Coupled with sampling methods, the Bayesian approach is shown to outperform least-squares filter design methods commonly used in commercial software, confirming the need for a global search of the parameter space. The resulting designs are shown to be comparable to those that result from global optimization methods, but the Bayesian approach has the added advantage of a filter length estimate within the same unified framework. The application to reflection data is useful for representing frequency-dependent impedance boundaries in finite difference acoustic simulations. Furthermore, since the filter transfer function is a parametric model, it can be modified to incorporate arbitrary frequency weighting and account for the band-limited nature of measured reflection spectra. Finally, the model is modified to compensate for dispersive error in the finite difference simulation, from the filter design process. Stemming from the filter boundary problem, the implementation of pressure sources in finite difference simulation is addressed in order to assure that schemes properly converge. A class of parameterized source functions is proposed and shown to offer straightforward control of residual error in the simulation. Guided by the notion that the solution to be approximated affects the approximation error, sources are designed which reduce residual dispersive error to the size of round-off errors. The early part of a room impulse response can be characterized by a series of isolated plane waves. Measured with an array of microphones, plane waves map to a directional response of the array or spatial intensity map. Probabilistic inversion of this response results in estimates of the number and directions of image source arrivals. The model-based inversion is shown to avoid ambiguities associated with peak-finding or inspection of the spatial intensity map. For this problem, determining the number of arrivals in a given frame is critical for properly inferring the state of the sound field. This analysis is effectively compression of the spatial room response, which is useful for analysis or encoding of the spatial sound field. Parametric, model-based formulations of these problems enhance the solution in all cases, and a Bayesian interpretation provides a principled approach to model comparison and parameter estimation. v

Motion camera based on a custom vision sensor and an FPGA architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arias-Estrada, Miguel

1998-09-01

A digital camera for custom focal plane arrays was developed. The camera allows the test and development of analog or mixed-mode arrays for focal plane processing. The camera is used with a custom sensor for motion detection to implement a motion computation system. The custom focal plane sensor detects moving edges at the pixel level using analog VLSI techniques. The sensor communicates motion events using the event-address protocol associated to a temporal reference. In a second stage, a coprocessing architecture based on a field programmable gate array (FPGA) computes the time-of-travel between adjacent pixels. The FPGA allows rapid prototyping and flexible architecture development. Furthermore, the FPGA interfaces the sensor to a compact PC computer which is used for high level control and data communication to the local network. The camera could be used in applications such as self-guided vehicles, mobile robotics and smart surveillance systems. The programmability of the FPGA allows the exploration of further signal processing like spatial edge detection or image segmentation tasks. The article details the motion algorithm, the sensor architecture, the use of the event- address protocol for velocity vector computation and the FPGA architecture used in the motion camera system.

The medial temporal lobe-conduit of parallel connectivity: a model for attention, memory, and perception.

PubMed

Mozaffari, Brian

2014-01-01

Based on the notion that the brain is equipped with a hierarchical organization, which embodies environmental contingencies across many time scales, this paper suggests that the medial temporal lobe (MTL)-located deep in the hierarchy-serves as a bridge connecting supra- to infra-MTL levels. Bridging the upper and lower regions of the hierarchy provides a parallel architecture that optimizes information flow between upper and lower regions to aid attention, encoding, and processing of quick complex visual phenomenon. Bypassing intermediate hierarchy levels, information conveyed through the MTL "bridge" allows upper levels to make educated predictions about the prevailing context and accordingly select lower representations to increase the efficiency of predictive coding throughout the hierarchy. This selection or activation/deactivation is associated with endogenous attention. In the event that these "bridge" predictions are inaccurate, this architecture enables the rapid encoding of novel contingencies. A review of hierarchical models in relation to memory is provided along with a new theory, Medial-temporal-lobe Conduit for Parallel Connectivity (MCPC). In this scheme, consolidation is considered as a secondary process, occurring after a MTL-bridged connection, which eventually allows upper and lower levels to access each other directly. With repeated reactivations, as contingencies become consolidated, less MTL activity is predicted. Finally, MTL bridging may aid processing transient but structured perceptual events, by allowing communication between upper and lower levels without calling on intermediate levels of representation.

Neural, electrophysiological and anatomical basis of brain-network variability and its characteristic changes in mental disorders.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Liu, Zhaowen; Zhang, Kai; Lei, Xu; Yao, Ye; Becker, Benjamin; Liu, Yicen; Kendrick, Keith M; Lu, Guangming; Feng, Jianfeng

2016-08-01

SEE MATTAR ET AL DOI101093/AWW151 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE: Functional brain networks demonstrate significant temporal variability and dynamic reconfiguration even in the resting state. Currently, most studies investigate temporal variability of brain networks at the scale of single (micro) or whole-brain (macro) connectivity. However, the mechanism underlying time-varying properties remains unclear, as the coupling between brain network variability and neural activity is not readily apparent when analysed at either micro or macroscales. We propose an intermediate (meso) scale analysis and characterize temporal variability of the functional architecture associated with a particular region. This yields a topography of variability that reflects the whole-brain and, most importantly, creates an analytical framework to establish the fundamental relationship between variability of regional functional architecture and its neural activity or structural connectivity. We find that temporal variability reflects the dynamical reconfiguration of a brain region into distinct functional modules at different times and may be indicative of brain flexibility and adaptability. Primary and unimodal sensory-motor cortices demonstrate low temporal variability, while transmodal areas, including heteromodal association areas and limbic system, demonstrate the high variability. In particular, regions with highest variability such as hippocampus/parahippocampus, inferior and middle temporal gyrus, olfactory gyrus and caudate are all related to learning, suggesting that the temporal variability may indicate the level of brain adaptability. With simultaneously recorded electroencephalography/functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional magnetic resonance imaging/diffusion tensor imaging data, we also find that variability of regional functional architecture is modulated by local blood oxygen level-dependent activity and α-band oscillation, and is governed by the ratio of intra- to inter-community structural connectivity. Application of the mesoscale variability measure to multicentre datasets of three mental disorders and matched controls involving 1180 subjects reveals that those regions demonstrating extreme, i.e. highest/lowest variability in controls are most liable to change in mental disorders. Specifically, we draw attention to the identification of diametrically opposing patterns of variability changes between schizophrenia and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/autism. Regions of the default-mode network demonstrate lower variability in patients with schizophrenia, but high variability in patients with autism/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, compared with respective controls. In contrast, subcortical regions, especially the thalamus, show higher variability in schizophrenia patients, but lower variability in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The changes in variability of these regions are also closely related to symptom scores. Our work provides insights into the dynamic organization of the resting brain and how it changes in brain disorders. The nodal variability measure may also be potentially useful as a predictor for learning and neural rehabilitation. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Research on Multi-Temporal PolInSAR Modeling and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Wen; Pottier, Eric; Chen, Erxue

2014-11-01

In the study of theory and processing methodology, we apply accurate topographic phase to the Freeman-Durden decomposition for PolInSAR data. On the other hand, we present a TomoSAR imaging method based on convex optimization regularization theory. The target decomposition and reconstruction performance will be evaluated by multi-temporal Land P-band fully polarimetric images acquired in BioSAR campaigns. In the study of hybrid Quad-Pol system performance, we analyse the expression of range ambiguity to signal ratio (RASR) in this architecture. Simulations are used to testify its advantage in the improvement of range ambiguities.

Research on Multi-Temporal PolInSAR Modeling and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Wen; Pottier, Eric; Chen, Erxue

2014-11-01

In the study of theory and processing methodology, we apply accurate topographic phase to the Freeman- Durden decomposition for PolInSAR data. On the other hand, we present a TomoSAR imaging method based on convex optimization regularization theory. The target decomposition and reconstruction performance will be evaluated by multi-temporal L- and P-band fully polarimetric images acquired in BioSAR campaigns. In the study of hybrid Quad-Pol system performance, we analyse the expression of range ambiguity to signal ratio (RASR) in this architecture. Simulations are used to testify its advantage in the improvement of range ambiguities.

Spatio-Temporal Fluctuations of the Earthquake Magnitude Distribution: Robust Estimation and Predictive Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, S.; Zaliapin, I.

2008-12-01

We establish positive correlation between the local spatio-temporal fluctuations of the earthquake magnitude distribution and the occurrence of regional earthquakes. In order to accomplish this goal, we develop a sequential Bayesian statistical estimation framework for the b-value (slope of the Gutenberg-Richter's exponential approximation to the observed magnitude distribution) and for the ratio a(t) between the earthquake intensities in two non-overlapping magnitude intervals. The time-dependent dynamics of these parameters is analyzed using Markov Chain Models (MCM). The main advantage of this approach over the traditional window-based estimation is its "soft" parameterization, which allows one to obtain stable results with realistically small samples. We furthermore discuss a statistical methodology for establishing lagged correlations between continuous and point processes. The developed methods are applied to the observed seismicity of California, Nevada, and Japan on different temporal and spatial scales. We report an oscillatory dynamics of the estimated parameters, and find that the detected oscillations are positively correlated with the occurrence of large regional earthquakes, as well as with small events with magnitudes as low as 2.5. The reported results have important implications for further development of earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment methods.

Widefield compressive multiphoton microscopy.

PubMed

Alemohammad, Milad; Shin, Jaewook; Tran, Dung N; Stroud, Jasper R; Chin, Sang Peter; Tran, Trac D; Foster, Mark A

2018-06-15

A single-pixel compressively sensed architecture is exploited to simultaneously achieve a 10× reduction in acquired data compared with the Nyquist rate, while alleviating limitations faced by conventional widefield temporal focusing microscopes due to scattering of the fluorescence signal. Additionally, we demonstrate an adaptive sampling scheme that further improves the compression and speed of our approach.

Spatial correlation-based side information refinement for distributed video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taieb, Mohamed Haj; Chouinard, Jean-Yves; Wang, Demin

2013-12-01

Distributed video coding (DVC) architecture designs, based on distributed source coding principles, have benefitted from significant progresses lately, notably in terms of achievable rate-distortion performances. However, a significant performance gap still remains when compared to prediction-based video coding schemes such as H.264/AVC. This is mainly due to the non-ideal exploitation of the video sequence temporal correlation properties during the generation of side information (SI). In fact, the decoder side motion estimation provides only an approximation of the true motion. In this paper, a progressive DVC architecture is proposed, which exploits the spatial correlation of the video frames to improve the motion-compensated temporal interpolation (MCTI). Specifically, Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frames are divided into several spatially correlated groups that are then sent progressively to the receiver. SI refinement (SIR) is performed as long as these groups are being decoded, thus providing more accurate SI for the next groups. It is shown that the proposed progressive SIR method leads to significant improvements over the Discover DVC codec as well as other SIR schemes recently introduced in the literature.

Internal cycling, not external loading, decides the nutrient limitation in eutrophic lake: A dynamic model with temporal Bayesian hierarchical inference.

PubMed

Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng

2017-06-01

Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical kinematic source inversion approach based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, Olaf; McDougall, Damon; Mai, Martin; Babuska, Ivo

2014-05-01

Seismic, often augmented with geodetic data, are frequently used to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip along a rupture plane. The resulting images of the slip evolution for a single event, inferred by different research teams, often vary distinctly, depending on the adopted inversion approach and rupture model parameterization. This observation raises the question, which of the provided kinematic source inversion solutions is most reliable and most robust, and — more generally — how accurate are fault parameterization and solution predictions? These issues are not included in "standard" source inversion approaches. Here, we present a statistical inversion approach to constrain kinematic rupture parameters from teleseismic body waves. The approach is based a) on a forward-modeling scheme that computes synthetic (body-)waves for a given kinematic rupture model, and b) on the QUESO (Quantification of Uncertainty for Estimation, Simulation, and Optimization) library that uses MCMC algorithms and Bayes theorem for sample selection. We present Bayesian inversions for rupture parameters in synthetic earthquakes (i.e. for which the exact rupture history is known) in an attempt to identify the cross-over at which further model discretization (spatial and temporal resolution of the parameter space) is no longer attributed to a decreasing misfit. Identification of this cross-over is of importance as it reveals the resolution power of the studied data set (i.e. teleseismic body waves), enabling one to constrain kinematic earthquake rupture histories of real earthquakes at a resolution that is supported by data. In addition, the Bayesian approach allows for mapping complete posterior probability density functions of the desired kinematic source parameters, thus enabling us to rigorously assess the uncertainties in earthquake source inversions.

Predicting BCI subject performance using probabilistic spatio-temporal filters.

PubMed

Suk, Heung-Il; Fazli, Siamac; Mehnert, Jan; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lee, Seong-Whan

2014-01-01

Recently, spatio-temporal filtering to enhance decoding for Brain-Computer-Interfacing (BCI) has become increasingly popular. In this work, we discuss a novel, fully Bayesian-and thereby probabilistic-framework, called Bayesian Spatio-Spectral Filter Optimization (BSSFO) and apply it to a large data set of 80 non-invasive EEG-based BCI experiments. Across the full frequency range, the BSSFO framework allows to analyze which spatio-spectral parameters are common and which ones differ across the subject population. As expected, large variability of brain rhythms is observed between subjects. We have clustered subjects according to similarities in their corresponding spectral characteristics from the BSSFO model, which is found to reflect their BCI performances well. In BCI, a considerable percentage of subjects is unable to use a BCI for communication, due to their missing ability to modulate their brain rhythms-a phenomenon sometimes denoted as BCI-illiteracy or inability. Predicting individual subjects' performance preceding the actual, time-consuming BCI-experiment enhances the usage of BCIs, e.g., by detecting users with BCI inability. This work additionally contributes by using the novel BSSFO method to predict the BCI-performance using only 2 minutes and 3 channels of resting-state EEG data recorded before the actual BCI-experiment. Specifically, by grouping the individual frequency characteristics we have nicely classified them into the subject 'prototypes' (like μ - or β -rhythm type subjects) or users without ability to communicate with a BCI, and then by further building a linear regression model based on the grouping we could predict subjects' performance with the maximum correlation coefficient of 0.581 with the performance later seen in the actual BCI session.

A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

2016-09-01

The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2013-12-01

Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network. Moreover, predictions of water-balance components are reported according to probabilistic metrics (e.g., percentiles, prediction intervals) that include both parameter and model uncertainties. These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics can inform the development of more accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variations in biogeochemical stores and fluxes (e.g., nutrients and carbon) in watersheds.

Strategies for improving approximate Bayesian computation tests for synchronous diversification.

PubMed

Overcast, Isaac; Bagley, Justin C; Hickerson, Michael J

2017-08-24

Estimating the variability in isolation times across co-distributed taxon pairs that may have experienced the same allopatric isolating mechanism is a core goal of comparative phylogeography. The use of hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and coalescent models to infer temporal dynamics of lineage co-diversification has been a contentious topic in recent years. Key issues that remain unresolved include the choice of an appropriate prior on the number of co-divergence events (Ψ), as well as the optimal strategies for data summarization. Through simulation-based cross validation we explore the impact of the strategy for sorting summary statistics and the choice of prior on Ψ on the estimation of co-divergence variability. We also introduce a new setting (β) that can potentially improve estimation of Ψ by enforcing a minimal temporal difference between pulses of co-divergence. We apply this new method to three empirical datasets: one dataset each of co-distributed taxon pairs of Panamanian frogs and freshwater fishes, and a large set of Neotropical butterfly sister-taxon pairs. We demonstrate that the choice of prior on Ψ has little impact on inference, but that sorting summary statistics yields substantially more reliable estimates of co-divergence variability despite violations of assumptions about exchangeability. We find the implementation of β improves estimation of Ψ, with improvement being most dramatic given larger numbers of taxon pairs. We find equivocal support for synchronous co-divergence for both of the Panamanian groups, but we find considerable support for asynchronous divergence among the Neotropical butterflies. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that using sorted summary statistics results in improved estimates of the variability in divergence times, whereas the choice of hyperprior on Ψ has negligible effect. Additionally, we demonstrate that estimating the number of pulses of co-divergence across co-distributed taxon-pairs is improved by applying a flexible buffering regime over divergence times. This improves the correlation between Ψ and the true variability in isolation times and allows for more meaningful interpretation of this hyperparameter. This will allow for more accurate identification of the number of temporally distinct pulses of co-divergence that generated the diversification pattern of a given regional assemblage of sister-taxon-pairs.

Merging Satellite Precipitation Products for Improved Streamflow Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Barbetta, S.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. Therefore, we propose to merge SM2RAIN and the widely used TMPA 3B42RT product across Italy for a 6-year period (2010-2015) at daily/0.25deg temporal/spatial scale. Two conceptually different merging techniques are compared to each other and evaluated in terms of different statistical metrics, including hit bias, threat score, false alarm rates, and missed rainfall volumes. The first is based on the maximization of the temporal correlation with a reference dataset, while the second is based on a Bayesian approach, which provides a probabilistic satellite precipitation estimate derived from the joint probability distribution of observations and satellite estimates. The merged precipitation products show a better performance with respect to the parental satellite-based products in terms of categorical statistics, as well as bias reduction and correlation coefficient, with the Bayesian approach being superior to other methods. A study case in the Tiber river basin is also presented to discuss the performance of forcing a hydrological model with the merged satellite precipitation product to simulate streamflow time series.

Integrating the Web and continuous media through distributed objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labajo, Saul P.; Garcia, Narciso N.

1998-09-01

The Web has rapidly grown to become the standard for documents interchange on the Internet. At the same time the interest on transmitting continuous media flows on the Internet, and its associated applications like multimedia on demand, is also growing. Integrating both kinds of systems should allow building real hypermedia systems where all media objects can be linked from any other, taking into account temporal and spatial synchronization. A way to achieve this integration is using the Corba architecture. This is a standard for open distributed systems. There are also recent efforts to integrate Web and Corba systems. We use this architecture to build a service for distribution of data flows endowed with timing restrictions. We use to integrate it with the Web, by one side Java applets that can use the Corba architecture and are embedded on HTML pages. On the other side, we also benefit from the efforts to integrate Corba and the Web.

GeoCENS: a geospatial cyberinfrastructure for the world-wide sensor web.

PubMed

Liang, Steve H L; Huang, Chih-Yuan

2013-10-02

The world-wide sensor web has become a very useful technique for monitoring the physical world at spatial and temporal scales that were previously impossible. Yet we believe that the full potential of sensor web has thus far not been revealed. In order to harvest the world-wide sensor web's full potential, a geospatial cyberinfrastructure is needed to store, process, and deliver large amount of sensor data collected worldwide. In this paper, we first define the issue of the sensor web long tail followed by our view of the world-wide sensor web architecture. Then, we introduce the Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Environmental Sensing (GeoCENS) architecture and explain each of its components. Finally, with demonstration of three real-world powered-by-GeoCENS sensor web applications, we believe that the GeoCENS architecture can successfully address the sensor web long tail issue and consequently realize the world-wide sensor web vision.

GeoCENS: A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for the World-Wide Sensor Web

PubMed Central

Liang, Steve H.L.; Huang, Chih-Yuan

2013-01-01

The world-wide sensor web has become a very useful technique for monitoring the physical world at spatial and temporal scales that were previously impossible. Yet we believe that the full potential of sensor web has thus far not been revealed. In order to harvest the world-wide sensor web's full potential, a geospatial cyberinfrastructure is needed to store, process, and deliver large amount of sensor data collected worldwide. In this paper, we first define the issue of the sensor web long tail followed by our view of the world-wide sensor web architecture. Then, we introduce the Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Environmental Sensing (GeoCENS) architecture and explain each of its components. Finally, with demonstration of three real-world powered-by-GeoCENS sensor web applications, we believe that the GeoCENS architecture can successfully address the sensor web long tail issue and consequently realize the world-wide sensor web vision. PMID:24152921

Dynamic state estimation based on Poisson spike trains—towards a theory of optimal encoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susemihl, Alex; Meir, Ron; Opper, Manfred

2013-03-01

Neurons in the nervous system convey information to higher brain regions by the generation of spike trains. An important question in the field of computational neuroscience is how these sensory neurons encode environmental information in a way which may be simply analyzed by subsequent systems. Many aspects of the form and function of the nervous system have been understood using the concepts of optimal population coding. Most studies, however, have neglected the aspect of temporal coding. Here we address this shortcoming through a filtering theory of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We derive exact relations for the minimal mean squared error of the optimal Bayesian filter and, by optimizing the encoder, obtain optimal codes for populations of neurons. We also show that a class of non-Markovian, smooth stimuli are amenable to the same treatment, and provide results for the filtering and prediction error which hold for a general class of stochastic processes. This sets a sound mathematical framework for a population coding theory that takes temporal aspects into account. It also formalizes a number of studies which discussed temporal aspects of coding using time-window paradigms, by stating them in terms of correlation times and firing rates. We propose that this kind of analysis allows for a systematic study of temporal coding and will bring further insights into the nature of the neural code.

Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Neighborhood Sociodemographic Characteristics and Food Stores

PubMed Central

Lamichhane, Archana P.; Warren, Joshua L.; Peterson, Marc; Rummo, Pasquale; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2015-01-01

The literature on food stores, neighborhood poverty, and race/ethnicity is mixed and lacks methods of accounting for complex spatial and temporal clustering of food resources. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations from Nielsen TDLinx (Nielsen Holdings N.V., New York, New York) spanning 7 years (2006–2012) and census tract-based neighborhood sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey (2006–2010) to assess associations between neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics and food store distributions in the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) of 4 US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and San Francisco, California). We fitted a space-time Poisson regression model that accounted for the complex spatial-temporal correlation structure of store locations by introducing space-time random effects in an intrinsic conditionally autoregressive model within a Bayesian framework. After accounting for census tract–level area, population, their interaction, and spatial and temporal variability, census tract poverty was significantly and positively associated with increasing expected numbers of supermarkets among tracts in all 4 MSAs. A similar positive association was observed for convenience stores in Birmingham, Minneapolis, and San Francisco; in Chicago, a positive association was observed only for predominantly white and predominantly black tracts. Our findings suggest a positive association between greater numbers of food stores and higher neighborhood poverty, with implications for policy approaches related to food store access by neighborhood poverty. PMID:25515169

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

Three-dimensional Bayesian geostatistical aquifer characterization at the Hanford 300 Area using tracer test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie S.; Hammond, Glenn E.; Rockhold, Mark L.; Zachara, John M.; Rubin, Yoram

2012-06-01

Tracer tests performed under natural or forced gradient flow conditions can provide useful information for characterizing subsurface properties, through monitoring, modeling, and interpretation of the tracer plume migration in an aquifer. Nonreactive tracer experiments were conducted at the Hanford 300 Area, along with constant-rate injection tests and electromagnetic borehole flowmeter tests. A Bayesian data assimilation technique, the method of anchored distributions (MAD) (Rubin et al., 2010), was applied to assimilate the experimental tracer test data with the other types of data and to infer the three-dimensional heterogeneous structure of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone of the Hanford formation.In this study, the Bayesian prior information on the underlying random hydraulic conductivity field was obtained from previous field characterization efforts using constant-rate injection and borehole flowmeter test data. The posterior distribution of the conductivity field was obtained by further conditioning the field on the temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves at various observation wells. MAD was implemented with the massively parallel three-dimensional flow and transport code PFLOTRAN to cope with the highly transient flow boundary conditions at the site and to meet the computational demands of MAD. A synthetic study proved that the proposed method could effectively invert tracer test data to capture the essential spatial heterogeneity of the three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field. Application of MAD to actual field tracer data at the Hanford 300 Area demonstrates that inverting for spatial heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity under transient flow conditions is challenging and more work is needed.

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myer, Mark H.; Campbell, Scott R.; Johnston, John M.

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 usingmore » the R package “R-INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.« less

Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

2000-06-01

It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies behavioral data in pain experiments on freely moving mice subjected to moderate heat delivered by an electric bulb. Summary of new or breakthrough ideas: (1) A new method to estimate probability distribution for measurement of nonlinear hemodynamics of brain from a multi- modal neuronal data. This is the first time that such an idea is tried, to our knowledge. (2) Breakthrough in improvement of time resolution of fMRI signals using (1) above.

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

DOE PAGES

Myer, Mark H.; Campbell, Scott R.; Johnston, John M.

2017-06-15

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 usingmore » the R package “R-INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.« less

A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. Daniel

1990-01-01

We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

How the prior information shapes couplings in neural fields performing optimal multisensory integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, He; Zhang, Wen-Hao; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Wu, Si

Extensive studies suggest that the brain integrates multisensory signals in a Bayesian optimal way. However, it remains largely unknown how the sensory reliability and the prior information shape the neural architecture. In this work, we propose a biologically plausible neural field model, which can perform optimal multisensory integration and encode the whole profile of the posterior. Our model is composed of two modules, each for one modality. The crosstalks between the two modules can be carried out through feedforwad cross-links and reciprocal connections. We found that the reciprocal couplings are crucial to optimal multisensory integration in that the reciprocal coupling pattern is shaped by the correlation in the joint prior distribution of the sensory stimuli. A perturbative approach is developed to illustrate the relation between the prior information and features in coupling patterns quantitatively. Our results show that a decentralized architecture based on reciprocal connections is able to accommodate complex correlation structures across modalities and utilize this prior information in optimal multisensory integration. This work is supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (N_HKUST606/12 and 605813) and National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB846101) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (31261160495).

An Inverse Modeling Plugin for HydroDesktop using the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ames, D. P.; Osorio, C.; Over, M. W.; Rubin, Y.

2011-12-01

The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System (HIS) software stack is based on an open and extensible architecture that facilitates the addition of new functions and capabilities at both the server side (using HydroServer) and the client side (using HydroDesktop). The HydroDesktop client plugin architecture is used here to expose a new scripting based plugin that makes use of the R statistics software as a means for conducting inverse modeling using the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD). MAD is a Bayesian inversion technique for conditioning computational model parameters on relevant field observations yielding probabilistic distributions of the model parameters, related to the spatial random variable of interest, by assimilating multi-type and multi-scale data. The implementation of a desktop software tool for using the MAD technique is expected to significantly lower the barrier to use of inverse modeling in education, research, and resource management. The HydroDesktop MAD plugin is being developed following a community-based, open-source approach that will help both its adoption and long term sustainability as a user tool. This presentation will briefly introduce MAD, HydroDesktop, and the MAD plugin and software development effort.

An architecture for encoding sentence meaning in left mid-superior temporal cortex

PubMed Central

Frankland, Steven M.; Greene, Joshua D.

2015-01-01

Human brains flexibly combine the meanings of words to compose structured thoughts. For example, by combining the meanings of “bite,” “dog,” and “man,” we can think about a dog biting a man, or a man biting a dog. Here, in two functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments using multivoxel pattern analysis (MVPA), we identify a region of left mid-superior temporal cortex (lmSTC) that flexibly encodes “who did what to whom” in visually presented sentences. We find that lmSTC represents the current values of abstract semantic variables (“Who did it?” and “To whom was it done?”) in distinct subregions. Experiment 1 first identifies a broad region of lmSTC whose activity patterns (i) facilitate decoding of structure-dependent sentence meaning (“Who did what to whom?”) and (ii) predict affect-related amygdala responses that depend on this information (e.g., “the baby kicked the grandfather” vs. “the grandfather kicked the baby”). Experiment 2 then identifies distinct, but neighboring, subregions of lmSTC whose activity patterns carry information about the identity of the current “agent” (“Who did it?”) and the current “patient” (“To whom was it done?”). These neighboring subregions lie along the upper bank of the superior temporal sulcus and the lateral bank of the superior temporal gyrus, respectively. At a high level, these regions may function like topographically defined data registers, encoding the fluctuating values of abstract semantic variables. This functional architecture, which in key respects resembles that of a classical computer, may play a critical role in enabling humans to flexibly generate complex thoughts. PMID:26305927

A space-time multiscale modelling of Earth's gravity field variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuo; Panet, Isabelle; Ramillien, Guillaume; Guilloux, Frédéric

2017-04-01

The mass distribution within the Earth varies over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, generating variations in the Earth's gravity field in space and time. These variations are monitored by satellites as the GRACE mission, with a 400 km spatial resolution and 10 days to 1 month temporal resolution. They are expressed in the form of gravity field models, often with a fixed spatial or temporal resolution. The analysis of these models allows us to study the mass transfers within the Earth system. Here, we have developed space-time multi-scale models of the gravity field, in order to optimize the estimation of gravity signals resulting from local processes at different spatial and temporal scales, and to adapt the time resolution of the model to its spatial resolution according to the satellites sampling. For that, we first build a 4D wavelet family combining spatial Poisson wavelets with temporal Haar wavelets. Then, we set-up a regularized inversion of inter-satellites gravity potential differences in a bayesian framework, to estimate the model parameters. To build the prior, we develop a spectral analysis, localized in time and space, of geophysical models of mass transport and associated gravity variations. Finally, we test our approach to the reconstruction of space-time variations of the gravity field due to hydrology. We first consider a global distribution of observations along the orbit, from a simplified synthetic hydrology signal comprising only annual variations at large spatial scales. Then, we consider a regional distribution of observations in Africa, and a larger number of spatial and temporal scales. We test the influence of an imperfect prior and discuss our results.

SpatialEpiApp: A Shiny web application for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data.

PubMed

Moraga, Paula

2017-11-01

During last years, public health surveillance has been facilitated by the existence of several packages implementing statistical methods for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data. However, these methods are still inaccesible for many researchers lacking the adequate programming skills to effectively use the required software. In this paper we present SpatialEpiApp, a Shiny web application that integrate two of the most common approaches in health surveillance: disease mapping and detection of clusters. SpatialEpiApp is easy to use and does not require any programming knowledge. Given information about the cases, population and optionally covariates for each of the areas and dates of study, the application allows to fit Bayesian models to obtain disease risk estimates and their uncertainty by using R-INLA, and to detect disease clusters by using SaTScan. The application allows user interaction and the creation of interactive data visualizations and reports showing the analyses performed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transboundary fisheries science: Meeting the challenges of inland fisheries management in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler; Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Irwin, Brian J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Managing inland fisheries in the 21st century presents several obstacles, including the need to view fisheries from multiple spatial and temporal scales, which usually involves populations and resources spanning sociopolitical boundaries. Though collaboration is not new to fisheries science, inland aquatic systems have historically been managed at local scales and present different challenges than in marine or large freshwater systems like the Laurentian Great Lakes. Therefore, we outline a flexible strategy that highlights organization, cooperation, analytics, and implementation as building blocks toward effectively addressing transboundary fisheries issues. Additionally, we discuss the use of Bayesian hierarchical models (within the analytical stage), due to their flexibility in dealing with the variability present in data from multiple scales. With growing recognition of both ecological drivers that span spatial and temporal scales and the subsequent need for collaboration to effectively manage heterogeneous resources, we expect implementation of transboundary approaches to become increasingly critical for effective inland fisheries management.

Discovering spatio-temporal models of the spread of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Jorgensen, Jane; D'Ambrosio, Bruce; Altendorf, Eric; Rossignol, Philippe A

2006-04-01

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.

The neurobiology of cognitive disorders in temporal lobe epilepsy

PubMed Central

Bell, Brian; Lin, Jack J.; Seidenberg, Michael; Hermann, Bruce

2013-01-01

Cognitive impairment and especially memory disruption is a major complicating feature of the epilepsies. In this review we begin with a focus on the problem of memory impairment in temporal lobe epilepsy. We start with a brief overview of the early development of knowledge regarding the anatomic substrates of memory disorder in temporal lobe epilepsy, followed by discussion of the refinement of that knowledge over time as informed by the outcomes of epilepsy surgery (anterior temporal lobectomy) and the clinical efforts to predict those patients at greatest risk of adverse cognitive outcomes following epilepsy surgery. These efforts also yielded new theoretical insights regarding the function of the human hippocampus and a few examples of these insights are touched on briefly. Finally, the vastly changing view of temporal lobe epilepsy is examined including findings demonstrating that anatomic abnormalities extend far outside the temporal lobe, cognitive impairments extend beyond memory function, with linkage of these distributed cognitive and anatomic abnormalities pointing to a new understanding of the anatomic architecture of cognitive impairment in epilepsy. Challenges remain in understanding the origin of these cognitive and anatomic abnormalities, their progression over time, and most importantly, how to intervene to protect cognitive and brain health in epilepsy. PMID:21304484

Using simulation to interpret experimental data in terms of protein conformational ensembles.

PubMed

Allison, Jane R

2017-04-01

In their biological environment, proteins are dynamic molecules, necessitating an ensemble structural description. Molecular dynamics simulations and solution-state experiments provide complimentary information in the form of atomically detailed coordinates and averaged or distributions of structural properties or related quantities. Recently, increases in the temporal and spatial scale of conformational sampling and comparison of the more diverse conformational ensembles thus generated have revealed the importance of sampling rare events. Excitingly, new methods based on maximum entropy and Bayesian inference are promising to provide a statistically sound mechanism for combining experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anisotropic interaction rules in circular motions of pigeon flocks: An empirical study based on sparse Bayesian learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Duxin; Xu, Bowen; Zhu, Tao; Zhou, Tao; Zhang, Hai-Tao

2017-08-01

Coordination shall be deemed to the result of interindividual interaction among natural gregarious animal groups. However, revealing the underlying interaction rules and decision-making strategies governing highly coordinated motion in bird flocks is still a long-standing challenge. Based on analysis of high spatial-temporal resolution GPS data of three pigeon flocks, we extract the hidden interaction principle by using a newly emerging machine learning method, namely the sparse Bayesian learning. It is observed that the interaction probability has an inflection point at pairwise distance of 3-4 m closer than the average maximum interindividual distance, after which it decays strictly with rising pairwise metric distances. Significantly, the density of spatial neighbor distribution is strongly anisotropic, with an evident lack of interactions along individual velocity. Thus, it is found that in small-sized bird flocks, individuals reciprocally cooperate with a variational number of neighbors in metric space and tend to interact with closer time-varying neighbors, rather than interacting with a fixed number of topological ones. Finally, extensive numerical investigation is conducted to verify both the revealed interaction and decision-making principle during circular flights of pigeon flocks.

Robust Spectral Unmixing of Sparse Multispectral Lidar Waveforms using Gamma Markov Random Fields

DOE PAGES

Altmann, Yoann; Maccarone, Aurora; McCarthy, Aongus; ...

2017-05-10

Here, this paper presents a new Bayesian spectral un-mixing algorithm to analyse remote scenes sensed via sparse multispectral Lidar measurements. To a first approximation, in the presence of a target, each Lidar waveform consists of a main peak, whose position depends on the target distance and whose amplitude depends on the wavelength of the laser source considered (i.e, on the target reflectivity). Besides, these temporal responses are usually assumed to be corrupted by Poisson noise in the low photon count regime. When considering multiple wavelengths, it becomes possible to use spectral information in order to identify and quantify the mainmore » materials in the scene, in addition to estimation of the Lidar-based range profiles. Due to its anomaly detection capability, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model, coupled with an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, allows robust estimation of depth images together with abundance and outlier maps associated with the observed 3D scene. The proposed methodology is illustrated via experiments conducted with real multispectral Lidar data acquired in a controlled environment. The results demonstrate the possibility to unmix spectral responses constructed from extremely sparse photon counts (less than 10 photons per pixel and band).« less

Phylogenetic evidence for cladogenetic polyploidization in land plants.

PubMed

Zhan, Shing H; Drori, Michal; Goldberg, Emma E; Otto, Sarah P; Mayrose, Itay

2016-07-01

Polyploidization is a common and recurring phenomenon in plants and is often thought to be a mechanism of "instant speciation". Whether polyploidization is associated with the formation of new species (cladogenesis) or simply occurs over time within a lineage (anagenesis), however, has never been assessed systematically. We tested this hypothesis using phylogenetic and karyotypic information from 235 plant genera (mostly angiosperms). We first constructed a large database of combined sequence and chromosome number data sets using an automated procedure. We then applied likelihood models (ClaSSE) that estimate the degree of synchronization between polyploidization and speciation events in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Our maximum likelihood analysis indicated that 35 genera supported a model that includes cladogenetic transitions over a model with only anagenetic transitions, whereas three genera supported a model that incorporates anagenetic transitions over one with only cladogenetic transitions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis supported a preponderance of cladogenetic change in four genera but did not support a preponderance of anagenetic change in any genus. Overall, these phylogenetic analyses provide the first broad confirmation that polyploidization is temporally associated with speciation events, suggesting that it is indeed a major speciation mechanism in plants, at least in some genera. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Bayesian Ising approximation for learning dictionaries of multispike timing patterns in premotor neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Lahme, Damian; Sober, Samuel; Nemenman, Ilya

Important questions in computational neuroscience are whether, how much, and how information is encoded in the precise timing of neural action potentials. We recently demonstrated that, in the premotor cortex during vocal control in songbirds, spike timing is far more informative about upcoming behavior than is spike rate (Tang et al, 2014). However, identification of complete dictionaries that relate spike timing patterns with the controled behavior remains an elusive problem. Here we present a computational approach to deciphering such codes for individual neurons in the songbird premotor area RA, an analog of mammalian primary motor cortex. Specifically, we analyze which multispike patterns of neural activity predict features of the upcoming vocalization, and hence are important codewords. We use a recently introduced Bayesian Ising Approximation, which properly accounts for the fact that many codewords overlap and hence are not independent. Our results show which complex, temporally precise multispike combinations are used by individual neurons to control acoustic features of the produced song, and that these code words are different across individual neurons and across different acoustic features. This work was supported, in part, by JSMF Grant 220020321, NSF Grant 1208126, NIH Grant NS084844 and NIH Grant 1 R01 EB022872.

Classification of Maize and Weeds by Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapron, Michel; Oprea, Alina; Sultana, Bogdan; Assemat, Louis

2007-11-01

Precision Agriculture is concerned with all sorts of within-field variability, spatially and temporally, that reduces the efficacy of agronomic practices applied in a uniform way all over the field. Because of these sources of heterogeneity, uniform management actions strongly reduce the efficiency of the resource input to the crop (i.e. fertilization, water) or for the agrochemicals use for pest control (i.e. herbicide). Moreover, this low efficacy means high environmental cost (pollution) and reduced economic return for the farmer. Weed plants are one of these sources of variability for the crop, as they occur in patches in the field. Detecting the location, size and internal density of these patches, along with identification of main weed species involved, open the way to a site-specific weed control strategy, where only patches of weeds would receive the appropriate herbicide (type and dose). Herein, an automatic recognition method of vegetal species is described. First, the pixels of soil and vegetation are classified in two classes, then the vegetation part of the input image is segmented from the distance image by using the watershed method and finally the leaves of the vegetation are partitioned in two parts maize and weeds thanks to the two Bayesian networks.

Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.

2015-11-01

Many geophysical quantities, such as atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long memory (LM). LM implies that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially not only enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LM. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LM. We use the flexible autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model, which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LM, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g., short-memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long-memory parameters and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data and the central England temperature (CET) time series, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators. For CET we also extend our method to seasonal long memory.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Altmann, Yoann; Maccarone, Aurora; McCarthy, Aongus

Here, this paper presents a new Bayesian spectral un-mixing algorithm to analyse remote scenes sensed via sparse multispectral Lidar measurements. To a first approximation, in the presence of a target, each Lidar waveform consists of a main peak, whose position depends on the target distance and whose amplitude depends on the wavelength of the laser source considered (i.e, on the target reflectivity). Besides, these temporal responses are usually assumed to be corrupted by Poisson noise in the low photon count regime. When considering multiple wavelengths, it becomes possible to use spectral information in order to identify and quantify the mainmore » materials in the scene, in addition to estimation of the Lidar-based range profiles. Due to its anomaly detection capability, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model, coupled with an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, allows robust estimation of depth images together with abundance and outlier maps associated with the observed 3D scene. The proposed methodology is illustrated via experiments conducted with real multispectral Lidar data acquired in a controlled environment. The results demonstrate the possibility to unmix spectral responses constructed from extremely sparse photon counts (less than 10 photons per pixel and band).« less

On uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, Niklas; Ginsbourger, David; Irving, James; Nobile, Fabio; Doucet, Arnaud

2017-12-01

Recent advances in sensor technologies, field methodologies, numerical modeling, and inversion approaches have contributed to unprecedented imaging of hydrogeological properties and detailed predictions at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, imaging results and predictions will always remain imprecise, which calls for appropriate uncertainty quantification (UQ). In this paper, we outline selected methodological developments together with pioneering UQ applications in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. The applied mathematics and statistics literature is not easy to penetrate and this review aims at helping hydrogeologists and hydrogeophysicists to identify suitable approaches for UQ that can be applied and further developed to their specific needs. To bypass the tremendous computational costs associated with forward UQ based on full-physics simulations, we discuss proxy-modeling strategies and multi-resolution (Multi-level Monte Carlo) methods. We consider Bayesian inversion for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space problems and discuss how Sequential Monte Carlo may become a practical alternative. We also describe strategies to account for forward modeling errors in Bayesian inversion. Finally, we consider hydrogeophysical inversion, where petrophysical uncertainty is often ignored leading to overconfident parameter estimation. The high parameter and data dimensions encountered in hydrogeological and geophysical problems make UQ a complicated and important challenge that has only been partially addressed to date.

Bayesian data assimilation provides rapid decision support for vector-borne diseases

PubMed Central

Jewell, Chris P.; Brown, Richard G.

2015-01-01

Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Although host population data are typically available, for novel disease introductions there is a high chance of the pathogen using a vector for which data are unavailable. This presents a barrier to estimating the parameters of dynamical models representing host–vector–pathogen interaction, and hence limits their ability to provide quantitative risk forecasts. The Theileria orientalis (Ikeda) outbreak in New Zealand cattle demonstrates this problem: even though the vector has received extensive laboratory study, a high degree of uncertainty persists over its national demographic distribution. Addressing this, we develop a Bayesian data assimilation approach whereby indirect observations of vector activity inform a seasonal spatio-temporal risk surface within a stochastic epidemic model. We provide quantitative predictions for the future spread of the epidemic, quantifying uncertainty in the model parameters, case infection times and the disease status of undetected infections. Importantly, we demonstrate how our model learns sequentially as the epidemic unfolds and provide evidence for changing epidemic dynamics through time. Our approach therefore provides a significant advance in rapid decision support for novel vector-borne disease outbreaks. PMID:26136225

A Bayesian approach to modelling the impact of hydrodynamic shear stress on biofilm deformation

PubMed Central

Wilkinson, Darren J.; Jayathilake, Pahala Gedara; Rushton, Steve P.; Bridgens, Ben; Li, Bowen; Zuliani, Paolo

2018-01-01

We investigate the feasibility of using a surrogate-based method to emulate the deformation and detachment behaviour of a biofilm in response to hydrodynamic shear stress. The influence of shear force, growth rate and viscoelastic parameters on the patterns of growth, structure and resulting shape of microbial biofilms was examined. We develop a statistical modelling approach to this problem, using combination of Bayesian Poisson regression and dynamic linear models for the emulation. We observe that the hydrodynamic shear force affects biofilm deformation in line with some literature. Sensitivity results also showed that the expected number of shear events, shear flow, yield coefficient for heterotrophic bacteria and extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) stiffness per unit EPS mass are the four principal mechanisms governing the bacteria detachment in this study. The sensitivity of the model parameters is temporally dynamic, emphasising the significance of conducting the sensitivity analysis across multiple time points. The surrogate models are shown to perform well, and produced ≈ 480 fold increase in computational efficiency. We conclude that a surrogate-based approach is effective, and resulting biofilm structure is determined primarily by a balance between bacteria growth, viscoelastic parameters and applied shear stress. PMID:29649240

Network reconfiguration and working memory impairment in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

Campo, Pablo; Garrido, Marta I; Moran, Rosalyn J; García-Morales, Irene; Poch, Claudia; Toledano, Rafael; Gil-Nagel, Antonio; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl J

2013-05-15

Mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE) is the most prevalent form of focal epilepsy, and hippocampal sclerosis (HS) is considered the most frequent associated pathological finding. Recent connectivity studies have shown that abnormalities, either structural or functional, are not confined to the affected hippocampus, but can be found in other connected structures within the same hemisphere, or even in the contralesional hemisphere. Despite the role of hippocampus in memory functions, most of these studies have explored network properties at resting state, and in some cases compared connectivity values with neuropsychological memory scores. Here, we measured magnetoencephalographic responses during verbal working memory (WM) encoding in left mTLE patients and controls, and compared their effective connectivity within a frontotemporal network using dynamic causal modelling. Bayesian model comparison indicated that the best model included bilateral, forward and backward connections, linking inferior temporal cortex (ITC), inferior frontal cortex (IFC), and the medial temporal lobe (MTL). Test for differences in effective connectivity revealed that patients exhibited decreased ipsilesional MTL-ITC backward connectivity, and increased bidirectional IFC-MTL connectivity in the contralesional hemisphere. Critically, a negative correlation was observed between these changes in patients, with decreases in ipsilesional coupling among temporal sources associated with increases contralesional frontotemporal interactions. Furthermore, contralesional frontotemporal interactions were inversely related to task performance and level of education. The results demonstrate that unilateral sclerosis induced local and remote changes in the dynamic organization of a distributed network supporting verbal WM. Crucially, pre-(peri) morbid factors (educational level) were reflected in both cognitive performance and (putative) compensatory changes in physiological coupling. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal evolution of female lung cancer mortality in a region of Spain, is it worth taking migration into account?

PubMed

Zurriaga, Oscar; Vanaclocha, Hermelinda; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

2008-01-31

The Comunitat Valenciana (CV) is a tourist region on the Mediterranean coast of Spain with a high rate of retirement migration. Lung cancer in women is the cancer mortality cause that has increased most in the CV during the period 1991 to 2000. Moreover, the geographical distribution of risk from this cause in the CV has been previously described and a non-homogenous pattern was determined. The present paper studies the spatio-temporal distribution of lung cancer mortality for women in the CV during the period 1987-2004, in order to gain some insight into the factors, such as migration, that have had an influence on these changes. A novel methodology, consisting of a Bayesian hierarchical model, is used in this paper. Such a model allows the handling of data with a very high disaggregation, while at the same time taking advantage of its spatial and temporal structure. The spatio-temporal pattern which was found points to geographical differences in the time trends of risk. In fact, the southern coastal side of the CV has had a higher increase in risk, coinciding with the settlement of a large foreign community in that area, mainly comprised of elderly people from the European Union. Migration has frequently been ignored as a risk factor in the description of the geographical risk of lung cancer and it is suggested that this factor should be considered, especially in tourist regions. The temporal component in disease mapping provides a more accurate depiction of risk factors acting on the population.

An object-oriented software approach for a distributed human tracking motion system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micucci, Daniela L.

2003-06-01

Tracking is a composite job involving the co-operation of autonomous activities which exploit a complex information model and rely on a distributed architecture. Both information and activities must be classified and related in several dimensions: abstraction levels (what is modelled and how information is processed); topology (where the modelled entities are); time (when entities exist); strategy (why something happens); responsibilities (who is in charge of processing the information). A proper Object-Oriented analysis and design approach leads to a modular architecture where information about conceptual entities is modelled at each abstraction level via classes and intra-level associations, whereas inter-level associations between classes model the abstraction process. Both information and computation are partitioned according to level-specific topological models. They are also placed in a temporal framework modelled by suitable abstractions. Domain-specific strategies control the execution of the computations. Computational components perform both intra-level processing and intra-level information conversion. The paper overviews the phases of the analysis and design process, presents major concepts at each abstraction level, and shows how the resulting design turns into a modular, flexible and adaptive architecture. Finally, the paper sketches how the conceptual architecture can be deployed into a concrete distribute architecture by relying on an experimental framework.

A sensorimotor theory of temporal tracking and beat induction.

PubMed

Todd, N P McAngus; Lee, C S; O'Boyle, D J

2002-02-01

In this paper, we develop a theory of the neurobiological basis of temporal tracking and beat induction as a form of sensory-guided action. We propose three principal components for the neurological architecture of temporal tracking: (1) the central auditory system, which represents the temporal information in the input signal in the form of a modulation power spectrum; (2) the musculoskeletal system, which carries out the action and (3) a controller, in the form of a parieto-cerebellar-frontal loop, which carries out the synchronisation between input and output by means of an internal model of the musculoskeletal dynamics. The theory is implemented in the form of a computational algorithm which takes sound samples as input and synchronises a simple linear mass-spring-damper system to simulate audio-motor synchronisation. The model may be applied to both the tracking of isochronous click sequences and beat induction in rhythmic music or speech, and also accounts for the approximate Weberian property of timing.

Discriminating bot accounts based solely on temporal features of microblog behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Junshan; Liu, Ying; Liu, Xiang; Hu, Hanping

2016-05-01

As the largest microblog service in China, Sina Weibo has attracted numerous automated applications (known as bots) due to its popularity and open architecture. We classify the active users from Sina Weibo into human, bot-based and hybrid groups based solely on the study of temporal features of their posting behavior. The anomalous burstiness parameter and time-interval entropy value are exploited to characterize automation. We also reveal different behavior patterns among the three types of users regarding their reposting ratio, daily rhythm and active days. Our findings may help Sina Weibo manage a better community and should be considered for dynamic models of microblog behaviors.

Biomimetic engineering of a generic cell-on-membrane architecture by microfluidic engraving for on-chip bioassays.

PubMed

Lee, Sang-Wook; Noh, Ji-Yoon; Park, Seung Chul; Chung, Jin-Ho; Lee, Byoungho; Lee, Sin-Doo

2012-05-22

We develop a biomimetic cell-on-membrane architecture in close-volume format which allows the interfacial biocompatibility and the reagent delivery capability for on-chip bioassays. The key concept lies in the microfluidic engraving of lipid membranes together with biological cells on a supported substrate with topographic patterns. The simultaneous engraving process of a different class of fluids is promoted by the front propagation of an air-water interface inside a flow-cell. This highly parallel, microfluidic cell-on-membrane approach opens a door to the natural biocompatibility in mimicking cellular stimuli-response behavior essential for diverse on-chip bioassays that can be precisely controlled in the spatial and temporal manner.

Two-photon spectral fluorescence lifetime and second-harmonic generation imaging of the porcine cornea with a 12-femtosecond laser microscope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batista, Ana; Breunig, Hans Georg; Uchugonova, Aisada; Morgado, António Miguel; König, Karsten

2016-03-01

Five dimensional microscopy with a 12-fs laser scanning microscope based on spectrally resolved two-photon autofluorescence lifetime and second-harmonic generation (SHG) imaging was used to characterize all layers of the porcine cornea. This setup allowed the simultaneous excitation of both metabolic cofactors, NAD(P)H and flavins, and their discrimination based on their spectral emission properties and fluorescence decay characteristics. Furthermore, the architecture of the stromal collagen fibrils was assessed by SHG imaging in both forward and backward directions. Information on the metabolic state and the tissue architecture of the porcine cornea were obtained with subcellular resolution, and high temporal and spectral resolutions.

Two-photon spectral fluorescence lifetime and second-harmonic generation imaging of the porcine cornea with a 12-femtosecond laser microscope.

PubMed

Batista, Ana; Breunig, Hans Georg; Uchugonova, Aisada; Morgado, António Miguel; König, Karsten

2016-03-01

Five dimensional microscopy with a 12-fs laser scanning microscope based on spectrally resolved two-photon autofluorescence lifetime and second-harmonic generation (SHG) imaging was used to characterize all layers of the porcine cornea. This setup allowed the simultaneous excitation of both metabolic cofactors, NAD(P)H and flavins, and their discrimination based on their spectral emission properties and fluorescence decay characteristics. Furthermore, the architecture of the stromal collagen fibrils was assessed by SHG imaging in both forward and backward directions. Information on the metabolic state and the tissue architecture of the porcine cornea were obtained with subcellular resolution, and high temporal and spectral resolutions.

An architecture for designing fuzzy logic controllers using neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1991-01-01

Described here is an architecture for designing fuzzy controllers through a hierarchical process of control rule acquisition and by using special classes of neural network learning techniques. A new method for learning to refine a fuzzy logic controller is introduced. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multi-layer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The model learns by updating its prediction of the plant's behavior and is related to the Sutton's Temporal Difference (TD) method. The method proposed here has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine-tuning it through the process of learning. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

Dissociations among judgments do not reflect cognitive priority: an associative explanation of memory for frequency information in contingency learning.

PubMed

Vadillo, Miguel A; Luque, David

2013-03-01

Previous research on causal learning has usually made strong claims about the relative complexity and temporal priority of some processes over others based on evidence about dissociations between several types of judgments. In particular, it has been argued that the dissociation between causal judgments and trial-type frequency information is incompatible with the general cognitive architecture proposed by associative models. In contrast with this view, we conduct an associative analysis of this process showing that this need not be the case. We conclude that any attempt to gain a better insight on the cognitive architecture involved in contingency learning cannot rely solely on data about these dissociations.

A reinforcement learning-based architecture for fuzzy logic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1992-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for learning to refine a rule-based fuzzy logic controller. A reinforcement learning technique is used in conjunction with a multilayer neural network model of a fuzzy controller. The approximate reasoning based intelligent control (ARIC) architecture proposed here learns by updating its prediction of the physical system's behavior and fine tunes a control knowledge base. Its theory is related to Sutton's temporal difference (TD) method. Because ARIC has the advantage of using the control knowledge of an experienced operator and fine tuning it through the process of learning, it learns faster than systems that train networks from scratch. The approach is applied to a cart-pole balancing system.

Multi-dimension feature fusion for action recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Pei; Li, Jie; Dong, Junyu; Qi, Lin

2018-04-01

Typical human actions last several seconds and exhibit characteristic spatio-temporal structure. The challenge for action recognition is to capture and fuse the multi-dimension information in video data. In order to take into account these characteristics simultaneously, we present a novel method that fuses multiple dimensional features, such as chromatic images, depth and optical flow fields. We built our model based on the multi-stream deep convolutional networks with the help of temporal segment networks and extract discriminative spatial and temporal features by fusing ConvNets towers multi-dimension, in which different feature weights are assigned in order to take full advantage of this multi-dimension information. Our architecture is trained and evaluated on the currently largest and most challenging benchmark NTU RGB-D dataset. The experiments demonstrate that the performance of our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

The characteristic patterns of neuronal avalanches in mice under anesthesia and at rest: An investigation using constrained artificial neural networks

PubMed Central

Knöpfel, Thomas; Leech, Robert

2018-01-01

Local perturbations within complex dynamical systems can trigger cascade-like events that spread across significant portions of the system. Cascades of this type have been observed across a broad range of scales in the brain. Studies of these cascades, known as neuronal avalanches, usually report the statistics of large numbers of avalanches, without probing the characteristic patterns produced by the avalanches themselves. This is partly due to limitations in the extent or spatiotemporal resolution of commonly used neuroimaging techniques. In this study, we overcome these limitations by using optical voltage (genetically encoded voltage indicators) imaging. This allows us to record cortical activity in vivo across an entire cortical hemisphere, at both high spatial (~30um) and temporal (~20ms) resolution in mice that are either in an anesthetized or awake state. We then use artificial neural networks to identify the characteristic patterns created by neuronal avalanches in our data. The avalanches in the anesthetized cortex are most accurately classified by an artificial neural network architecture that simultaneously connects spatial and temporal information. This is in contrast with the awake cortex, in which avalanches are most accurately classified by an architecture that treats spatial and temporal information separately, due to the increased levels of spatiotemporal complexity. This is in keeping with reports of higher levels of spatiotemporal complexity in the awake brain coinciding with features of a dynamical system operating close to criticality. PMID:29795654

The medial temporal lobe—conduit of parallel connectivity: a model for attention, memory, and perception

PubMed Central

Mozaffari, Brian

2014-01-01

Based on the notion that the brain is equipped with a hierarchical organization, which embodies environmental contingencies across many time scales, this paper suggests that the medial temporal lobe (MTL)—located deep in the hierarchy—serves as a bridge connecting supra- to infra—MTL levels. Bridging the upper and lower regions of the hierarchy provides a parallel architecture that optimizes information flow between upper and lower regions to aid attention, encoding, and processing of quick complex visual phenomenon. Bypassing intermediate hierarchy levels, information conveyed through the MTL “bridge” allows upper levels to make educated predictions about the prevailing context and accordingly select lower representations to increase the efficiency of predictive coding throughout the hierarchy. This selection or activation/deactivation is associated with endogenous attention. In the event that these “bridge” predictions are inaccurate, this architecture enables the rapid encoding of novel contingencies. A review of hierarchical models in relation to memory is provided along with a new theory, Medial-temporal-lobe Conduit for Parallel Connectivity (MCPC). In this scheme, consolidation is considered as a secondary process, occurring after a MTL-bridged connection, which eventually allows upper and lower levels to access each other directly. With repeated reactivations, as contingencies become consolidated, less MTL activity is predicted. Finally, MTL bridging may aid processing transient but structured perceptual events, by allowing communication between upper and lower levels without calling on intermediate levels of representation. PMID:25426036

Building an ACT-R Reader for Eye-Tracking Corpus Data.

PubMed

Dotlačil, Jakub

2018-01-01

Cognitive architectures have often been applied to data from individual experiments. In this paper, I develop an ACT-R reader that can model a much larger set of data, eye-tracking corpus data. It is shown that the resulting model has a good fit to the data for the considered low-level processes. Unlike previous related works (most prominently, Engelmann, Vasishth, Engbert & Kliegl, ), the model achieves the fit by estimating free parameters of ACT-R using Bayesian estimation and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, rather than by relying on the mix of manual selection + default values. The method used in the paper is generalizable beyond this particular model and data set and could be used on other ACT-R models. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Assessing the effects of architectural variations on light partitioning within virtual wheat–pea mixtures

PubMed Central

Barillot, Romain; Escobar-Gutiérrez, Abraham J.; Fournier, Christian; Huynh, Pierre; Combes, Didier

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Predicting light partitioning in crop mixtures is a critical step in improving the productivity of such complex systems, and light interception has been shown to be closely linked to plant architecture. The aim of the present work was to analyse the relationships between plant architecture and light partitioning within wheat–pea (Triticum aestivum–Pisum sativum) mixtures. An existing model for wheat was utilized and a new model for pea morphogenesis was developed. Both models were then used to assess the effects of architectural variations in light partitioning. Methods First, a deterministic model (L-Pea) was developed in order to obtain dynamic reconstructions of pea architecture. The L-Pea model is based on L-systems formalism and consists of modules for ‘vegetative development’ and ‘organ extension’. A tripartite simulator was then built up from pea and wheat models interfaced with a radiative transfer model. Architectural parameters from both plant models, selected on the basis of their contribution to leaf area index (LAI), height and leaf geometry, were then modified in order to generate contrasting architectures of wheat and pea. Key results By scaling down the analysis to the organ level, it could be shown that the number of branches/tillers and length of internodes significantly determined the partitioning of light within mixtures. Temporal relationships between light partitioning and the LAI and height of the different species showed that light capture was mainly related to the architectural traits involved in plant LAI during the early stages of development, and in plant height during the onset of interspecific competition. Conclusions In silico experiments enabled the study of the intrinsic effects of architectural parameters on the partitioning of light in crop mixtures of wheat and pea. The findings show that plant architecture is an important criterion for the identification/breeding of plant ideotypes, particularly with respect to light partitioning. PMID:24907314

Architecture for a 1-GHz Digital RADAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mallik, Udayan

2011-01-01

An architecture for a Direct RF-digitization Type Digital Mode RADAR was developed at GSFC in 2008. Two variations of a basic architecture were developed for use on RADAR imaging missions using aircraft and spacecraft. Both systems can operate with a pulse repetition rate up to 10 MHz with 8 received RF samples per pulse repetition interval, or at up to 19 kHz with 4K received RF samples per pulse repetition interval. The first design describes a computer architecture for a Continuous Mode RADAR transceiver with a real-time signal processing and display architecture. The architecture can operate at a high pulse repetition rate without interruption for an infinite amount of time. The second design describes a smaller and less costly burst mode RADAR that can transceive high pulse repetition rate RF signals without interruption for up to 37 seconds. The burst-mode RADAR was designed to operate on an off-line signal processing paradigm. The temporal distribution of RF samples acquired and reported to the RADAR processor remains uniform and free of distortion in both proposed architectures. The majority of the RADAR's electronics is implemented in digital CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor), and analog circuits are restricted to signal amplification operations and analog to digital conversion. An implementation of the proposed systems will create a 1-GHz, Direct RF-digitization Type, L-Band Digital RADAR--the highest band achievable for Nyquist Rate, Direct RF-digitization Systems that do not implement an electronic IF downsample stage (after the receiver signal amplification stage), using commercially available off-the-shelf integrated circuits.

Bayesian network analysis reveals alterations to default mode network connectivity in individuals at risk for Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Li, Rui; Yu, Jing; Zhang, Shouzi; Bao, Feng; Wang, Pengyun; Huang, Xin; Li, Juan

2013-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with abnormal functioning of the default mode network (DMN). Functional connectivity (FC) changes to the DMN have been found in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), which is the prodromal stage of AD. However, whether or not aMCI also alters the effective connectivity (EC) of the DMN remains unknown. We employed a combined group independent component analysis (ICA) and Bayesian network (BN) learning approach to resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data from 17 aMCI patients and 17 controls, in order to establish the EC pattern of DMN, and to evaluate changes occurring in aMCI. BN analysis demonstrated heterogeneous regional convergence degree across DMN regions, which were organized into two closely interacting subsystems. Compared to controls, the aMCI group showed altered directed connectivity weights between DMN regions in the fronto-parietal, temporo-frontal, and temporo-parietal pathways. The aMCI group also exhibited altered regional convergence degree in the right inferior parietal lobule. Moreover, we found EC changes in DMN regions in aMCI were correlated with regional FC levels, and the connectivity metrics were associated with patients' cognitive performance. This study provides novel sights into our understanding of the functional architecture of the DMN and adds to a growing body of work demonstrating the importance of the DMN as a mechanism of aMCI.

Dynamic modeling of neuronal responses in fMRI using cubature Kalman filtering

PubMed Central

Havlicek, Martin; Friston, Karl J.; Jan, Jiri; Brazdil, Milan; Calhoun, Vince D.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to inverting (fitting) models of coupled dynamical systems based on state-of-the-art (cubature) Kalman filtering. Crucially, this inversion furnishes posterior estimates of both the hidden states and parameters of a system, including any unknown exogenous input. Because the underlying generative model is formulated in continuous time (with a discrete observation process) it can be applied to a wide variety of models specified with either ordinary or stochastic differential equations. These are an important class of models that are particularly appropriate for biological time-series, where the underlying system is specified in terms of kinetics or dynamics (i.e., dynamic causal models). We provide comparative evaluations with generalized Bayesian filtering (dynamic expectation maximization) and demonstrate marked improvements in accuracy and computational efficiency. We compare the schemes using a series of difficult (nonlinear) toy examples and conclude with a special focus on hemodynamic models of evoked brain responses in fMRI. Our scheme promises to provide a significant advance in characterizing the functional architectures of distributed neuronal systems, even in the absence of known exogenous (experimental) input; e.g., resting state fMRI studies and spontaneous fluctuations in electrophysiological studies. Importantly, unlike current Bayesian filters (e.g. DEM), our scheme provides estimates of time-varying parameters, which we will exploit in future work on the adaptation and enabling of connections in the brain. PMID:21396454

Network discovery with DCM

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Li, Baojuan; Daunizeau, Jean; Stephan, Klaas E.

2011-01-01

This paper is about inferring or discovering the functional architecture of distributed systems using Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM). We describe a scheme that recovers the (dynamic) Bayesian dependency graph (connections in a network) using observed network activity. This network discovery uses Bayesian model selection to identify the sparsity structure (absence of edges or connections) in a graph that best explains observed time-series. The implicit adjacency matrix specifies the form of the network (e.g., cyclic or acyclic) and its graph-theoretical attributes (e.g., degree distribution). The scheme is illustrated using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series to discover functional brain networks. Crucially, it can be applied to experimentally evoked responses (activation studies) or endogenous activity in task-free (resting state) fMRI studies. Unlike conventional approaches to network discovery, DCM permits the analysis of directed and cyclic graphs. Furthermore, it eschews (implausible) Markovian assumptions about the serial independence of random fluctuations. The scheme furnishes a network description of distributed activity in the brain that is optimal in the sense of having the greatest conditional probability, relative to other networks. The networks are characterised in terms of their connectivity or adjacency matrices and conditional distributions over the directed (and reciprocal) effective connectivity between connected nodes or regions. We envisage that this approach will provide a useful complement to current analyses of functional connectivity for both activation and resting-state studies. PMID:21182971

Efficient Implementation of MrBayes on Multi-GPU

PubMed Central

Zhou, Jianfu; Liu, Xiaoguang; Wang, Gang

2013-01-01

MrBayes, using Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC or (MC)3), is a popular program for Bayesian inference. As a leading method of using DNA data to infer phylogeny, the (MC)3 Bayesian algorithm and its improved and parallel versions are now not fast enough for biologists to analyze massive real-world DNA data. Recently, graphics processor unit (GPU) has shown its power as a coprocessor (or rather, an accelerator) in many fields. This article describes an efficient implementation a(MC)3 (aMCMCMC) for MrBayes (MC)3 on compute unified device architecture. By dynamically adjusting the task granularity to adapt to input data size and hardware configuration, it makes full use of GPU cores with different data sets. An adaptive method is also developed to split and combine DNA sequences to make full use of a large number of GPU cards. Furthermore, a new “node-by-node” task scheduling strategy is developed to improve concurrency, and several optimizing methods are used to reduce extra overhead. Experimental results show that a(MC)3 achieves up to 63× speedup over serial MrBayes on a single machine with one GPU card, and up to 170× speedup with four GPU cards, and up to 478× speedup with a 32-node GPU cluster. a(MC)3 is dramatically faster than all the previous (MC)3 algorithms and scales well to large GPU clusters. PMID:23493260

Efficient implementation of MrBayes on multi-GPU.

PubMed

Bao, Jie; Xia, Hongju; Zhou, Jianfu; Liu, Xiaoguang; Wang, Gang

2013-06-01

MrBayes, using Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC or (MC)(3)), is a popular program for Bayesian inference. As a leading method of using DNA data to infer phylogeny, the (MC)(3) Bayesian algorithm and its improved and parallel versions are now not fast enough for biologists to analyze massive real-world DNA data. Recently, graphics processor unit (GPU) has shown its power as a coprocessor (or rather, an accelerator) in many fields. This article describes an efficient implementation a(MC)(3) (aMCMCMC) for MrBayes (MC)(3) on compute unified device architecture. By dynamically adjusting the task granularity to adapt to input data size and hardware configuration, it makes full use of GPU cores with different data sets. An adaptive method is also developed to split and combine DNA sequences to make full use of a large number of GPU cards. Furthermore, a new "node-by-node" task scheduling strategy is developed to improve concurrency, and several optimizing methods are used to reduce extra overhead. Experimental results show that a(MC)(3) achieves up to 63× speedup over serial MrBayes on a single machine with one GPU card, and up to 170× speedup with four GPU cards, and up to 478× speedup with a 32-node GPU cluster. a(MC)(3) is dramatically faster than all the previous (MC)(3) algorithms and scales well to large GPU clusters.

Bayesian Chance-Constrained Hydraulic Barrier Design under Geological Structure Uncertainty.

PubMed

Chitsazan, Nima; Pham, Hai V; Tsai, Frank T-C

2015-01-01

The groundwater community has widely recognized geological structure uncertainty as a major source of model structure uncertainty. Previous studies in aquifer remediation design, however, rarely discuss the impact of geological structure uncertainty. This study combines chance-constrained (CC) programming with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a BMA-CC framework to assess the impact of geological structure uncertainty in remediation design. To pursue this goal, the BMA-CC method is compared with traditional CC programming that only considers model parameter uncertainty. The BMA-CC method is employed to design a hydraulic barrier to protect public supply wells of the Government St. pump station from salt water intrusion in the "1500-foot" sand and the "1700-foot" sand of the Baton Rouge area, southeastern Louisiana. To address geological structure uncertainty, three groundwater models based on three different hydrostratigraphic architectures are developed. The results show that using traditional CC programming overestimates design reliability. The results also show that at least five additional connector wells are needed to achieve more than 90% design reliability level. The total amount of injected water from the connector wells is higher than the total pumpage of the protected public supply wells. While reducing the injection rate can be achieved by reducing the reliability level, the study finds that the hydraulic barrier design to protect the Government St. pump station may not be economically attractive. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

A Bayesian least squares support vector machines based framework for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khawaja, Taimoor Saleem

A high-belief low-overhead Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system is desired for online real-time monitoring of complex non-linear systems operating in a complex (possibly non-Gaussian) noise environment. This thesis presents a Bayesian Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) based framework for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis in nonlinear non-Gaussian systems. The methodology assumes the availability of real-time process measurements, definition of a set of fault indicators and the existence of empirical knowledge (or historical data) to characterize both nominal and abnormal operating conditions. An efficient yet powerful Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) algorithm, set within a Bayesian Inference framework, not only allows for the development of real-time algorithms for diagnosis and prognosis but also provides a solid theoretical framework to address key concepts related to classification for diagnosis and regression modeling for prognosis. SVM machines are founded on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) which tends to find a good trade-off between low empirical risk and small capacity. The key features in SVM are the use of non-linear kernels, the absence of local minima, the sparseness of the solution and the capacity control obtained by optimizing the margin. The Bayesian Inference framework linked with LS-SVMs allows a probabilistic interpretation of the results for diagnosis and prognosis. Additional levels of inference provide the much coveted features of adaptability and tunability of the modeling parameters. The two main modules considered in this research are fault diagnosis and failure prognosis. With the goal of designing an efficient and reliable fault diagnosis scheme, a novel Anomaly Detector is suggested based on the LS-SVM machines. The proposed scheme uses only baseline data to construct a 1-class LS-SVM machine which, when presented with online data is able to distinguish between normal behavior and any abnormal or novel data during real-time operation. The results of the scheme are interpreted as a posterior probability of health (1 - probability of fault). As shown through two case studies in Chapter 3, the scheme is well suited for diagnosing imminent faults in dynamical non-linear systems. Finally, the failure prognosis scheme is based on an incremental weighted Bayesian LS-SVR machine. It is particularly suited for online deployment given the incremental nature of the algorithm and the quick optimization problem solved in the LS-SVR algorithm. By way of kernelization and a Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) scheme, the algorithm can estimate "possibly" non-Gaussian posterior distributions for complex non-linear systems. An efficient regression scheme associated with the more rigorous core algorithm allows for long-term predictions, fault growth estimation with confidence bounds and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation after a fault is detected. The leading contributions of this thesis are (a) the development of a novel Bayesian Anomaly Detector for efficient and reliable Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines, (b) the development of a data-driven real-time architecture for long-term Failure Prognosis using Least Squares Support Vector Machines, (c) Uncertainty representation and management using Bayesian Inference for posterior distribution estimation and hyper-parameter tuning, and finally (d) the statistical characterization of the performance of diagnosis and prognosis algorithms in order to relate the efficiency and reliability of the proposed schemes.

Fast neural solution of a nonlinear wave equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toomarian, Nikzad; Barhen, Jacob

1992-01-01

A neural algorithm for rapidly simulating a certain class of nonlinear wave phenomena using analog VLSI neural hardware is presented and applied to the Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equation. The corresponding neural architecture is obtained from a pseudospectral representation of the spatial dependence, along with a leap-frog scheme for the temporal evolution. Numerical simulations demonstrated the robustness of the proposed approach.

LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Wei Li; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Bo Z. Shang; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

2005-01-01

LANDIS 4.0 is new-generation software that simulates forest landscape change over large spatial and temporal scales. It is used to explore how disturbances, succession, and management interact to determine forest composition and pattern. Also describes software architecture, model assumptions and provides detailed instructions on the use of the model.

Dynamic Analytics-Driven Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Exploitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-15

integration with big data technologies such as Hadoop , nor does it natively support exporting of events to external relational databases. OSSIM supports...power of big data analytics to determine correlations and temporal causality among vulnerabilities and cyber events. The vulnerability dependencies...via the SCAPE (formerly known as LLCySA [6]). This is illustrated as a big data cyber analytic system architecture in

Chromatin Structure and Replication Origins: Determinants Of Chromosome Replication And Nuclear Organization

PubMed Central

Smith, Owen K.; Aladjem, Mirit I.

2014-01-01

The DNA replication program is, in part, determined by the epigenetic landscape that governs local chromosome architecture and directs chromosome duplication. Replication must coordinate with other biochemical processes occurring concomitantly on chromatin, such as transcription and remodeling, to insure accurate duplication of both genetic and epigenetic features and to preserve genomic stability. The importance of genome architecture and chromatin looping in coordinating cellular processes on chromatin is illustrated by two recent sets of discoveries. First, chromatin-associated proteins that are not part of the core replication machinery were shown to affect the timing of DNA replication. These chromatin-associated proteins could be working in concert, or perhaps in competition, with the transcriptional machinery and with chromatin modifiers to determine the spatial and temporal organization of replication initiation events. Second, epigenetic interactions are mediated by DNA sequences that determine chromosomal replication. In this review we summarize recent findings and current models linking spatial and temporal regulation of the replication program with epigenetic signaling. We discuss these issues in the context of the genome’s three-dimensional structure with an emphasis on events occurring during the initiation of DNA replication. PMID:24905010

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters Using Surface Flux and Runoff Observations in the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yu; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi

2013-12-10

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) - Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find thatmore » using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent - as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to the different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.« less

Synaptic and nonsynaptic plasticity approximating probabilistic inference

PubMed Central

Tully, Philip J.; Hennig, Matthias H.; Lansner, Anders

2014-01-01

Learning and memory operations in neural circuits are believed to involve molecular cascades of synaptic and nonsynaptic changes that lead to a diverse repertoire of dynamical phenomena at higher levels of processing. Hebbian and homeostatic plasticity, neuromodulation, and intrinsic excitability all conspire to form and maintain memories. But it is still unclear how these seemingly redundant mechanisms could jointly orchestrate learning in a more unified system. To this end, a Hebbian learning rule for spiking neurons inspired by Bayesian statistics is proposed. In this model, synaptic weights and intrinsic currents are adapted on-line upon arrival of single spikes, which initiate a cascade of temporally interacting memory traces that locally estimate probabilities associated with relative neuronal activation levels. Trace dynamics enable synaptic learning to readily demonstrate a spike-timing dependence, stably return to a set-point over long time scales, and remain competitive despite this stability. Beyond unsupervised learning, linking the traces with an external plasticity-modulating signal enables spike-based reinforcement learning. At the postsynaptic neuron, the traces are represented by an activity-dependent ion channel that is shown to regulate the input received by a postsynaptic cell and generate intrinsic graded persistent firing levels. We show how spike-based Hebbian-Bayesian learning can be performed in a simulated inference task using integrate-and-fire (IAF) neurons that are Poisson-firing and background-driven, similar to the preferred regime of cortical neurons. Our results support the view that neurons can represent information in the form of probability distributions, and that probabilistic inference could be a functional by-product of coupled synaptic and nonsynaptic mechanisms operating over several timescales. The model provides a biophysical realization of Bayesian computation by reconciling several observed neural phenomena whose functional effects are only partially understood in concert. PMID:24782758

Bayesian multi-scale smoothing of photon-limited images with applications to astronomy and medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, John

Multi-scale models for smoothing Poisson signals or images have gained much attention over the past decade. A new Bayesian model is developed using the concept of the Chinese restaurant process to find structures in two-dimensional images when performing image reconstruction or smoothing. This new model performs very well when compared to other leading methodologies for the same problem. It is developed and evaluated theoretically and empirically throughout Chapter 2. The newly developed Bayesian model is extended to three-dimensional images in Chapter 3. The third dimension has numerous different applications, such as different energy spectra, another spatial index, or possibly a temporal dimension. Empirically, this method shows promise in reducing error with the use of simulation studies. A further development removes background noise in the image. This removal can further reduce the error and is done using a modeling adjustment and post-processing techniques. These details are given in Chapter 4. Applications to real world problems are given throughout. Photon-based images are common in astronomical imaging due to the collection of different types of energy such as X-Rays. Applications to real astronomical images are given, and these consist of X-ray images from the Chandra X-ray observatory satellite. Diagnostic medicine uses many types of imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography that can also benefit from smoothing techniques such as the one developed here. Reducing the amount of radiation a patient takes will make images more noisy, but this can be mitigated through the use of image smoothing techniques. Both types of images represent the potential real world use for these methods.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Estimation and Application of Ecological Memory Functions in Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Dawson, A.

2017-12-01

A common goal in quantitative ecology is the estimation or prediction of ecological processes as a function of explanatory variables (or covariates). Frequently, the ecological process of interest and associated covariates vary in time, space, or both. Theory indicates many ecological processes exhibit memory to local, past conditions. Despite such theoretical understanding, few methods exist to integrate observations from the recent past or within a local neighborhood as drivers of these processes. We build upon recent methodological advances in ecology and spatial statistics to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate so-called ecological memory functions; that is, weight-generating functions that specify the relative importance of local, past covariate observations to ecological processes. Memory functions are estimated using a set of basis functions in time and/or space, allowing for flexible ecological memory based on a reduced set of parameters. Ecological memory functions are entirely data driven under the Bayesian hierarchical framework—no a priori assumptions are made regarding functional forms. Memory function uncertainty follows directly from posterior distributions for model parameters allowing for tractable propagation of error to predictions of ecological processes. We apply the model framework to simulated spatio-temporal datasets generated using memory functions of varying complexity. The framework is also applied to estimate the ecological memory of annual boreal forest growth to local, past water availability. Consistent with ecological understanding of boreal forest growth dynamics, memory to past water availability peaks in the year previous to growth and slowly decays to zero in five to eight years. The Bayesian hierarchical framework has applicability to a broad range of ecosystems and processes allowing for increased understanding of ecosystem responses to local and past conditions and improved prediction of ecological processes.

Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

2013-12-01

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 1; Method and Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Yang, Song; Petty, Grant W.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Bell, Thomas L.; Braun, Scott A.; Wang, Yansen; Lang, Stephen E.; Johnson, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics. PMID:28173504

Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.

Revealing transient strain in geodetic data with Gaussian process regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hines, T. T.; Hetland, E. A.

2018-03-01

Transient strain derived from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data can be used to detect and understand geophysical processes such as slow slip events and post-seismic deformation. Here we propose using Gaussian process regression (GPR) as a tool for estimating transient strain from GNSS data. GPR is a non-parametric, Bayesian method for interpolating scattered data. In our approach, we assume a stochastic prior model for transient displacements. The prior describes how much we expect transient displacements to covary spatially and temporally. A posterior estimate of transient strain is obtained by differentiating the posterior transient displacements, which are formed by conditioning the prior with the GNSS data. As a demonstration, we use GPR to detect transient strain resulting from slow slip events in the Pacific Northwest. Maximum likelihood methods are used to constrain a prior model for transient displacements in this region. The temporal covariance of our prior model is described by a compact Wendland covariance function, which significantly reduces the computational burden that can be associated with GPR. Our results reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of strain from slow slip events. We verify that the transient strain estimated with GPR is in fact geophysical signal by comparing it to the seismic tremor that is associated with Pacific Northwest slow slip events.

What calls for service tell us about suicide: A 7-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood correlates of suicide-related calls.

PubMed

Marco, Miriam; Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Lila, Marisol

2018-04-30

Previous research has shown that neighborhood-level variables such as social deprivation, social fragmentation or rurality are related to suicide risk, but most of these studies have been conducted in the U.S. or northern European countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of suicide in a southern European city (Valencia, Spain), and determine whether this distribution was related to a set of neighborhood-level characteristics. We used suicide-related calls for service as an indicator of suicide cases (n = 6,537), and analyzed the relationship of the outcome variable with several neighborhood-level variables: economic status, education level, population density, residential instability, one-person households, immigrant concentration, and population aging. A Bayesian autoregressive model was used to study the spatio-temporal distribution at the census block group level for a 7-year period (2010-2016). Results showed that neighborhoods with lower levels of education and population density, and higher levels of residential instability, one-person households, and an aging population had higher levels of suicide-related calls for service. Immigrant concentration and economic status did not make a relevant contribution to the model. These results could help to develop better-targeted community-level suicide prevention strategies.

Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty.

PubMed

Huang, Guowen; Lee, Duncan; Scott, E Marian

2018-03-30

The long-term health effects of air pollution are often estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological areal unit study, but this design leads to the following statistical challenges: (1) how to estimate spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit; (2) how to allow for the uncertainty in these estimated concentrations when estimating their health effects; and (3) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple correlated pollutants. This article proposes a novel 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for addressing these 3 challenges, with inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model for predicting areal level average concentrations of multiple pollutants from both monitored and modelled pollution data. The second stage is a spatio-temporal model for estimating the health impact of multiple correlated pollutants simultaneously, which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations. The novel methodology is motivated by a new study of the impact of both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in Scotland between 2007 and 2011, and the results suggest that both pollutants exhibit substantial and independent health effects. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.

PubMed

Xu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin; Wang, Jinfeng; Zhang, Xiangxue; Liang, Jinjun

2017-12-29

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.

Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China

PubMed Central

Xu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin; Wang, Jinfeng; Zhang, Xiangxue; Liang, Jinjun

2017-01-01

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery. PMID:29286297

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Joint modality fusion and temporal context exploitation for semantic video analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Georgios Th; Mezaris, Vasileios; Kompatsiaris, Ioannis; Strintzis, Michael G.

2011-12-01

In this paper, a multi-modal context-aware approach to semantic video analysis is presented. Overall, the examined video sequence is initially segmented into shots and for every resulting shot appropriate color, motion and audio features are extracted. Then, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are employed for performing an initial association of each shot with the semantic classes that are of interest separately for each modality. Subsequently, a graphical modeling-based approach is proposed for jointly performing modality fusion and temporal context exploitation. Novelties of this work include the combined use of contextual information and multi-modal fusion, and the development of a new representation for providing motion distribution information to HMMs. Specifically, an integrated Bayesian Network is introduced for simultaneously performing information fusion of the individual modality analysis results and exploitation of temporal context, contrary to the usual practice of performing each task separately. Contextual information is in the form of temporal relations among the supported classes. Additionally, a new computationally efficient method for providing motion energy distribution-related information to HMMs, which supports the incorporation of motion characteristics from previous frames to the currently examined one, is presented. The final outcome of this overall video analysis framework is the association of a semantic class with every shot. Experimental results as well as comparative evaluation from the application of the proposed approach to four datasets belonging to the domains of tennis, news and volleyball broadcast video are presented.

Action selection performance of a reconfigurable basal ganglia inspired model with Hebbian–Bayesian Go-NoGo connectivity

PubMed Central

Berthet, Pierre; Hellgren-Kotaleski, Jeanette; Lansner, Anders

2012-01-01

Several studies have shown a strong involvement of the basal ganglia (BG) in action selection and dopamine dependent learning. The dopaminergic signal to striatum, the input stage of the BG, has been commonly described as coding a reward prediction error (RPE), i.e., the difference between the predicted and actual reward. The RPE has been hypothesized to be critical in the modulation of the synaptic plasticity in cortico-striatal synapses in the direct and indirect pathway. We developed an abstract computational model of the BG, with a dual pathway structure functionally corresponding to the direct and indirect pathways, and compared its behavior to biological data as well as other reinforcement learning models. The computations in our model are inspired by Bayesian inference, and the synaptic plasticity changes depend on a three factor Hebbian–Bayesian learning rule based on co-activation of pre- and post-synaptic units and on the value of the RPE. The model builds on a modified Actor-Critic architecture and implements the direct (Go) and the indirect (NoGo) pathway, as well as the reward prediction (RP) system, acting in a complementary fashion. We investigated the performance of the model system when different configurations of the Go, NoGo, and RP system were utilized, e.g., using only the Go, NoGo, or RP system, or combinations of those. Learning performance was investigated in several types of learning paradigms, such as learning-relearning, successive learning, stochastic learning, reversal learning and a two-choice task. The RPE and the activity of the model during learning were similar to monkey electrophysiological and behavioral data. Our results, however, show that there is not a unique best way to configure this BG model to handle well all the learning paradigms tested. We thus suggest that an agent might dynamically configure its action selection mode, possibly depending on task characteristics and also on how much time is available. PMID:23060764

The Role of Frontal Cortical and Medial-Temporal Lobe Brain Areas in Learning a Bayesian Prior Belief on Reversals

PubMed Central

Jang, Anthony I.; Costa, Vincent D.; Rudebeck, Peter H.; Chudasama, Yogita; Murray, Elisabeth A.

2015-01-01

Reversal learning has been extensively studied across species as a task that indexes the ability to flexibly make and reverse deterministic stimulus–reward associations. Although various brain lesions have been found to affect performance on this task, the behavioral processes affected by these lesions have not yet been determined. This task includes at least two kinds of learning. First, subjects have to learn and reverse stimulus–reward associations in each block of trials. Second, subjects become more proficient at reversing choice preferences as they experience more reversals. We have developed a Bayesian approach to separately characterize these two learning processes. Reversal of choice behavior within each block is driven by a combination of evidence that a reversal has occurred, and a prior belief in reversals that evolves with experience across blocks. We applied the approach to behavior obtained from 89 macaques, comprising 12 lesion groups and a control group. We found that animals from all of the groups reversed more quickly as they experienced more reversals, and correspondingly they updated their prior beliefs about reversals at the same rate. However, the initial values of the priors that the various groups of animals brought to the task differed significantly, and it was these initial priors that led to the differences in behavior. Thus, by taking a Bayesian approach we find that variability in reversal-learning performance attributable to different neural systems is primarily driven by different prior beliefs about reversals that each group brings to the task. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The ability to use prior knowledge to adapt choice behavior is critical for flexible decision making. Reversal learning is often studied as a form of flexible decision making. However, prior studies have not identified which brain regions are important for the formation and use of prior beliefs to guide choice behavior. Here we develop a Bayesian approach that formally characterizes learning set as a concept, and we show that, in macaque monkeys, the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex have a role in establishing an initial belief about the stability of the reward environment. PMID:26290251

Information fusion via isocortex-based Area 37 modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, James K.

2004-08-01

A simplified model of information processing in the brain can be constructed using primary sensory input from two modalities (auditory and visual) and recurrent connections to the limbic subsystem. Information fusion would then occur in Area 37 of the temporal cortex. The creation of meta concepts from the low order primary inputs is managed by models of isocortex processing. Isocortex algorithms are used to model parietal (auditory), occipital (visual), temporal (polymodal fusion) cortex and the limbic system. Each of these four modules is constructed out of five cortical stacks in which each stack consists of three vertically oriented six layer isocortex models. The input to output training of each cortical model uses the OCOS (on center - off surround) and FFP (folded feedback pathway) circuitry of (Grossberg, 1) which is inherently a recurrent network type of learning characterized by the identification of perceptual groups. Models of this sort are thus closely related to cognitive models as it is difficult to divorce the sensory processing subsystems from the higher level processing in the associative cortex. The overall software architecture presented is biologically based and is presented as a potential architectural prototype for the development of novel sensory fusion strategies. The algorithms are motivated to some degree by specific data from projects on musical composition and autonomous fine art painting programs, but only in the sense that these projects use two specific types of auditory and visual cortex data. Hence, the architectures are presented for an artificial information processing system which utilizes two disparate sensory sources. The exact nature of the two primary sensory input streams is irrelevant.

Towards a New Assessment of Urban Areas from Local to Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; McKee, J.; Weaver, J.; Bright, E.; Weber, E.

2015-12-01

Since early 2000s, starting with NASA MODIS, satellite based remote sensing has facilitated collection of imagery with medium spatial resolution but high temporal resolution (daily). This trend continues with an increasing number of sensors and data products. Increasing spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data archives, from both public and commercial sources, have significantly enhanced the quality of mapping and change data products. However, even with automation of such analysis on evolving computing platforms, rates of data processing have been suboptimal largely because of the ever-increasing pixel to processor ratio coupled with limitations of the computing architectures. Novel approaches utilizing spatiotemporal data mining techniques and computational architectures have emerged that demonstrates the potential for sustained and geographically scalable landscape monitoring to be operational. We exemplify this challenge with two broad research initiatives on High Performance Geocomputation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: (a) mapping global settlement distribution; (b) developing national critical infrastructure databases. Our present effort, on large GPU based architectures, to exploit high resolution (1m or less) satellite and airborne imagery for extracting settlements at global scale is yielding understanding of human settlement patterns and urban areas at unprecedented resolution. Comparison of such urban land cover database, with existing national and global land cover products, at various geographic scales in selected parts of the world is revealing intriguing patterns and insights for urban assessment. Early results, from the USA, Taiwan, and Egypt, indicate closer agreements (5-10%) in urban area assessments among databases at larger, aggregated geographic extents. However, spatial variability at local scales could be significantly different (over 50% disagreement).

Genetics of Adverse Reactions to Haloperidol in a Mouse Diallel: A Drug–Placebo Experiment and Bayesian Causal Analysis

PubMed Central

Crowley, James J.; Kim, Yunjung; Lenarcic, Alan B.; Quackenbush, Corey R.; Barrick, Cordelia J.; Adkins, Daniel E.; Shaw, Ginger S.; Miller, Darla R.; de Villena, Fernando Pardo-Manuel; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Valdar, William

2014-01-01

Haloperidol is an efficacious antipsychotic drug that has serious, unpredictable motor side effects that limit its utility and cause noncompliance in many patients. Using a drug–placebo diallel of the eight founder strains of the Collaborative Cross and their F1 hybrids, we characterized aggregate effects of genetics, sex, parent of origin, and their combinations on haloperidol response. Treating matched pairs of both sexes with drug or placebo, we measured changes in the following: open field activity, inclined screen rigidity, orofacial movements, prepulse inhibition of the acoustic startle response, plasma and brain drug level measurements, and body weight. To understand the genetic architecture of haloperidol response we introduce new statistical methodology linking heritable variation with causal effect of drug treatment. Our new estimators, “difference of models” and “multiple-impute matched pairs”, are motivated by the Neyman–Rubin potential outcomes framework and extend our existing Bayesian hierarchical model for the diallel (Lenarcic et al. 2012). Drug-induced rigidity after chronic treatment was affected by mainly additive genetics and parent-of-origin effects (accounting for 28% and 14.8% of the variance), with NZO/HILtJ and 129S1/SvlmJ contributions tending to increase this side effect. Locomotor activity after acute treatment, by contrast, was more affected by strain-specific inbreeding (12.8%). In addition to drug response phenotypes, we examined diallel effects on behavior before treatment and found not only effects of additive genetics (10.2–53.2%) but also strong effects of epistasis (10.64–25.2%). In particular: prepulse inhibition showed additivity and epistasis in about equal proportions (26.1% and 23.7%); there was evidence of nonreciprocal epistasis in pretreatment activity and rigidity; and we estimated a range of effects on body weight that replicate those found in our previous work. Our results provide the first quantitative description of the genetic architecture of haloperidol response in mice and indicate that additive, dominance-like inbreeding and parent-of-origin effects contribute strongly to treatment effect heterogeneity for this drug. PMID:24240528

A Space-Time Signal Decomposition Algorithm for Downlink MIMO DS-CDMA Receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yung-Yi; Fang, Wen-Hsien; Chen, Jiunn-Tsair

We propose a dimension reduction algorithm for the receiver of the downlink of direct-sequence code-division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems in which both the transmitters and the receivers employ antenna arrays of multiple elements. To estimate the high order channel parameters, we develop a layered architecture using dimension-reduced parameter estimation algorithms to estimate the frequency-selective multipath channels. In the proposed architecture, to exploit the space-time geometric characteristics of multipath channels, spatial beamformers and constrained (or unconstrained) temporal filters are adopted for clustered-multipath grouping and path isolation. In conjunction with the multiple access interference (MAI) suppression techniques, the proposed architecture jointly estimates the direction of arrivals, propagation delays, and fading amplitudes of the downlink fading multipaths. With the outputs of the proposed architecture, the signals of interest can then be naturally detected by using path-wise maximum ratio combining. Compared to the traditional techniques, such as the Joint-Angle-and-Delay-Estimation (JADE) algorithm for DOA-delay joint estimation and the space-time minimum mean square error (ST-MMSE) algorithm for signal detection, computer simulations show that the proposed algorithm substantially mitigate the computational complexity at the expense of only slight performance degradation.

Deep RNNs for video denoising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xinyuan; Song, Li; Yang, Xiaokang

2016-09-01

Video denoising can be described as the problem of mapping from a specific length of noisy frames to clean one. We propose a deep architecture based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for video denoising. The model learns a patch-based end-to-end mapping between the clean and noisy video sequences. It takes the corrupted video sequences as the input and outputs the clean one. Our deep network, which we refer to as deep Recurrent Neural Networks (deep RNNs or DRNNs), stacks RNN layers where each layer receives the hidden state of the previous layer as input. Experiment shows (i) the recurrent architecture through temporal domain extracts motion information and does favor to video denoising, and (ii) deep architecture have large enough capacity for expressing mapping relation between corrupted videos as input and clean videos as output, furthermore, (iii) the model has generality to learned different mappings from videos corrupted by different types of noise (e.g., Poisson-Gaussian noise). By training on large video databases, we are able to compete with some existing video denoising methods.

A decade of understanding spatio-temporal regulation of DNA repair by the nuclear architecture.

PubMed

Saad, Hicham; Cobb, Jennifer A

2016-10-01

The nucleus is a hub for gene expression and is a highly organized entity. The nucleoplasm is heterogeneous, owing to the preferential localization of specific metabolic factors, which lead to the definition of nuclear compartments or bodies. The genome is organized into chromosome territories, as well as heterochromatin and euchromatin domains. Recent observations have indicated that nuclear organization is important for maintaining genomic stability. For example, nuclear organization has been implicated in stabilizing damaged DNA, repair-pathway choice, and in preventing chromosomal rearrangements. Over the past decade, several studies have revealed that dynamic changes in the nuclear architecture are important during double-strand break repair. Stemming from work in yeast, relocation of a damaged site prior to repair appears to be at least partially conserved in multicellular eukaryotes. In this review, we will discuss genome and nucleoplasm architecture, particularly the importance of the nuclear periphery in genome stability. We will also discuss how the site of relocation regulates repair-pathway choice.

Software Architecture for a Virtual Environment for Nano Scale Assembly (VENSA).

PubMed

Lee, Yong-Gu; Lyons, Kevin W; Feng, Shaw C

2004-01-01

A Virtual Environment (VE) uses multiple computer-generated media to let a user experience situations that are temporally and spatially prohibiting. The information flow between the user and the VE is bidirectional and the user can influence the environment. The software development of a VE requires orchestrating multiple peripherals and computers in a synchronized way in real time. Although a multitude of useful software components for VEs exists, many of these are packaged within a complex framework and can not be used separately. In this paper, an architecture is presented which is designed to let multiple frameworks work together while being shielded from the application program. This architecture, which is called the Virtual Environment for Nano Scale Assembly (VENSA), has been constructed for interfacing with an optical tweezers instrument for nanotechnology development. However, this approach can be generalized for most virtual environments. Through the use of VENSA, the programmer can rely on existing solutions and concentrate more on the application software design.

Software Architecture for a Virtual Environment for Nano Scale Assembly (VENSA)

PubMed Central

Lee, Yong-Gu; Lyons, Kevin W.; Feng, Shaw C.

2004-01-01

A Virtual Environment (VE) uses multiple computer-generated media to let a user experience situations that are temporally and spatially prohibiting. The information flow between the user and the VE is bidirectional and the user can influence the environment. The software development of a VE requires orchestrating multiple peripherals and computers in a synchronized way in real time. Although a multitude of useful software components for VEs exists, many of these are packaged within a complex framework and can not be used separately. In this paper, an architecture is presented which is designed to let multiple frameworks work together while being shielded from the application program. This architecture, which is called the Virtual Environment for Nano Scale Assembly (VENSA), has been constructed for interfacing with an optical tweezers instrument for nanotechnology development. However, this approach can be generalized for most virtual environments. Through the use of VENSA, the programmer can rely on existing solutions and concentrate more on the application software design. PMID:27366610

Characterization of a compliant multi-layer system for tactile sensing with enhanced sensitivity and range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying; Yu, Miao; Bruck, Hugh A.; Smela, Elisabeth

2018-06-01

To allow robots to interact with humans via touch, new sensing concepts are needed that can detect a wide range of potential interactions and cover the body of a robot. In this paper, a skin-inspired multi-layer tactile sensing architecture is presented and characterized. The structure consists of stretchable piezoresistive strain-sensing layers over foam layers of different stiffness, allowing for both sufficient sensitivity and pressure range for human contacts. Strip-shaped sensors were used in this architecture to produce a deformation response proportional to pressure. The roles of the foam layers were elucidated by changing their stiffness and thickness, allowing the development of a geometric model to account for indenter interactions with the structure. The advantage of this architecture over other approaches is the ability to easily tune performance by adjusting the stiffness or thickness of the foams to tailor the response for different applications. Since viscoelastic materials were used, the temporal effects were also investigated.

Ultrafast and versatile spectroscopy by temporal Fourier transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Wei, Xiaoming; Marhic, Michel E.; Wong, Kenneth K. Y.

2014-06-01

One of the most remarkable and useful properties of a spatially converging lens system is its inherent ability to perform the Fourier transform; the same applies for the time-lens system. At the back focal plane of the time-lens, the spectral information can be instantaneously obtained in the time axis. By implementing temporal Fourier transform for spectroscopy applications, this time-lens-based architecture can provide orders of magnitude improvement over the state-of-art spatial-dispersion-based spectroscopy in terms of the frame rate. On the other hand, in addition to the single-lens structure, the multi-lens structures (e.g. telescope or wide-angle scope) will provide very versatile operating conditions. Leveraging the merit of instantaneous response, as well as the flexible lens structure, here we present a 100-MHz frame rate spectroscopy system - the parametric spectro-temporal analyzer (PASTA), which achieves 17 times zoom in/out ratio for different observation ranges.

Coincident Detection Significance in Multimessenger Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashton, G.; Burns, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Dent, T.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Nielsen, A. B.; Prix, R.; Was, M.; Zhu, S. J.

2018-06-01

We derive a Bayesian criterion for assessing whether signals observed in two separate data sets originate from a common source. The Bayes factor for a common versus unrelated origin of signals includes an overlap integral of the posterior distributions over the common-source parameters. Focusing on multimessenger gravitational-wave astronomy, we apply the method to the spatial and temporal association of independent gravitational-wave and electromagnetic (or neutrino) observations. As an example, we consider the coincidence between the recently discovered gravitational-wave signal GW170817 from a binary neutron star merger and the gamma-ray burst GRB 170817A: we find that the common-source model is enormously favored over a model describing them as unrelated signals.

Estimation of under-reporting in epidemics using approximations.

PubMed

Gamado, Kokouvi; Streftaris, George; Zachary, Stan

2017-06-01

Under-reporting in epidemics, when it is ignored, leads to under-estimation of the infection rate and therefore of the reproduction number. In the case of stochastic models with temporal data, a usual approach for dealing with such issues is to apply data augmentation techniques through Bayesian methodology. Departing from earlier literature approaches implemented using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) techniques, we make use of approximations to obtain faster estimation with simple MCMC. Comparisons among the methods developed here, and with the RJMCMC approach, are carried out and highlight that approximation-based methodology offers useful alternative inference tools for large epidemics, with a good trade-off between time cost and accuracy.

Pivotal response treatment prompts a functional rewiring of the brain among individuals with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y-J; Dvornek, Nicha; Staib, Lawrence H; Duncan, James S; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Ventola, Pamela

2016-09-28

Behavioral interventions for autism have gained prominence in recent years; however, the neural-systems-level targets of these interventions remain poorly understood. We use a novel Bayesian framework to extract network-based differences before and after a 16-week pivotal response treatment (PRT) regimen. Our results suggest that the functional changes induced by PRT localize to the posterior cingulate and are marked by a shift in connectivity from the orbitofrontal cortex to the occipital-temporal cortex. Our results illuminate a potential PRT-induced learning mechanism, whereby the neural circuits involved during social perception shift from sensory and attentional systems to higher-level object and face processing areas.

Pivotal Response Treatment Prompts a Functional Rewiring of the Brain amongst Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Dvornek, Nicha; Staib, Lawrence H.; Duncan, James S.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.; Ventola, Pamela

2016-01-01

Behavioral interventions for autism have gained prominence in recent years; however, the neural-systems-level targets of these interventions remain poorly understood. We use a novel Bayesian framework to extract network-based differences before and after a 16-week Pivotal Response Treatment (PRT) regimen. Our results suggest that functional changes induced by PRT localize to the posterior cingulate and are marked by a shift in connectivity from the orbitofrontal cortex to the occipital temporal cortex. Our results illuminate a potential PRT-induced learning mechanism, whereby the neural circuits involved during social perception shift from sensory and attentional systems to higher-level object and face processing areas. PMID:27532879

Topologically Consistent Models for Efficient Big Geo-Spatio Data Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, M. W.; Bradley, P. E.; Doori, M. Al; Breunig, M.

2017-10-01

Geo-spatio-temporal topology models are likely to become a key concept to check the consistency of 3D (spatial space) and 4D (spatial + temporal space) models for emerging GIS applications such as subsurface reservoir modelling or the simulation of energy and water supply of mega or smart cities. Furthermore, the data management for complex models consisting of big geo-spatial data is a challenge for GIS and geo-database research. General challenges, concepts, and techniques of big geo-spatial data management are presented. In this paper we introduce a sound mathematical approach for a topologically consistent geo-spatio-temporal model based on the concept of the incidence graph. We redesign DB4GeO, our service-based geo-spatio-temporal database architecture, on the way to the parallel management of massive geo-spatial data. Approaches for a new geo-spatio-temporal and object model of DB4GeO meeting the requirements of big geo-spatial data are discussed in detail. Finally, a conclusion and outlook on our future research are given on the way to support the processing of geo-analytics and -simulations in a parallel and distributed system environment.

Genomic architecture and evolution of clear cell renal cell carcinomas defined by multiregion sequencing

PubMed Central

Varela, Ignacio; Fisher, Rosalie; McGranahan, Nicholas; Matthews, Nicholas; Santos, Claudio R; Martinez, Pierre; Phillimore, Benjamin; Begum, Sharmin; Rabinowitz, Adam; Spencer-Dene, Bradley; Gulati, Sakshi; Bates, Paul A; Stamp, Gordon; Pickering, Lisa; Gore, Martin; Nicol, David L; Hazell, Steven; Futreal, P Andrew; Stewart, Aengus; Swanton, Charles

2015-01-01

Clear cell renal carcinomas (ccRCCs) can display intratumor heterogeneity (ITH). We applied multiregion exome sequencing (M-seq) to resolve the genetic architecture and evolutionary histories of ten ccRCCs. Ultra-deep sequencing identified ITH in all cases. We found that 73–75% of identified ccRCC driver aberrations were subclonal, confounding estimates of driver mutation prevalence. ITH increased with the number of biopsies analyzed, without evidence of saturation in most tumors. Chromosome 3p loss and VHL aberrations were the only ubiquitous events. The proportion of C>T transitions at CpG sites increased during tumor progression. M-seq permits the temporal resolution of ccRCC evolution and refines mutational signatures occurring during tumor development. PMID:24487277

Emulating short-term synaptic dynamics with memristive devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdan, Radu; Vasilaki, Eleni; Khiat, Ali; Indiveri, Giacomo; Serb, Alexandru; Prodromakis, Themistoklis

2016-01-01

Neuromorphic architectures offer great promise for achieving computation capacities beyond conventional Von Neumann machines. The essential elements for achieving this vision are highly scalable synaptic mimics that do not undermine biological fidelity. Here we demonstrate that single solid-state TiO2 memristors can exhibit non-associative plasticity phenomena observed in biological synapses, supported by their metastable memory state transition properties. We show that, contrary to conventional uses of solid-state memory, the existence of rate-limiting volatility is a key feature for capturing short-term synaptic dynamics. We also show how the temporal dynamics of our prototypes can be exploited to implement spatio-temporal computation, demonstrating the memristors full potential for building biophysically realistic neural processing systems.

The functional architecture of the ventral temporal cortex and its role in categorization

PubMed Central

Grill-Spector, Kalanit; Weiner, Kevin S.

2014-01-01

Visual categorization is thought to occur in the human ventral temporal cortex (VTC), but how this categorization is achieved is still largely unknown. In this Review, we consider the computations and representations that are necessary for categorization and examine how the microanatomical and macroanatomical layout of the VTC might optimize them to achieve rapid and flexible visual categorization. We propose that efficient categorization is achieved by organizing representations in a nested spatial hierarchy in the VTC. This spatial hierarchy serves as a neural infrastructure for the representational hierarchy of visual information in the VTC and thereby enables flexible access to category information at several levels of abstraction. PMID:24962370

Accelerating Astronomy & Astrophysics in the New Era of Parallel Computing: GPUs, Phi and Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Eric B.; Dindar, Saleh; Peters, Jorg

2015-08-01

The realism of astrophysical simulations and statistical analyses of astronomical data are set by the available computational resources. Thus, astronomers and astrophysicists are constantly pushing the limits of computational capabilities. For decades, astronomers benefited from massive improvements in computational power that were driven primarily by increasing clock speeds and required relatively little attention to details of the computational hardware. For nearly a decade, increases in computational capabilities have come primarily from increasing the degree of parallelism, rather than increasing clock speeds. Further increases in computational capabilities will likely be led by many-core architectures such as Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) and Intel Xeon Phi. Successfully harnessing these new architectures, requires significantly more understanding of the hardware architecture, cache hierarchy, compiler capabilities and network network characteristics.I will provide an astronomer's overview of the opportunities and challenges provided by modern many-core architectures and elastic cloud computing. The primary goal is to help an astronomical audience understand what types of problems are likely to yield more than order of magnitude speed-ups and which problems are unlikely to parallelize sufficiently efficiently to be worth the development time and/or costs.I will draw on my experience leading a team in developing the Swarm-NG library for parallel integration of large ensembles of small n-body systems on GPUs, as well as several smaller software projects. I will share lessons learned from collaborating with computer scientists, including both technical and soft skills. Finally, I will discuss the challenges of training the next generation of astronomers to be proficient in this new era of high-performance computing, drawing on experience teaching a graduate class on High-Performance Scientific Computing for Astrophysics and organizing a 2014 advanced summer school on Bayesian Computing for Astronomical Data Analysis with support of the Penn State Center for Astrostatistics and Institute for CyberScience.

All-memristive neuromorphic computing with level-tuned neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantazi, Angeliki; Woźniak, Stanisław; Tuma, Tomas; Eleftheriou, Evangelos

2016-09-01

In the new era of cognitive computing, systems will be able to learn and interact with the environment in ways that will drastically enhance the capabilities of current processors, especially in extracting knowledge from vast amount of data obtained from many sources. Brain-inspired neuromorphic computing systems increasingly attract research interest as an alternative to the classical von Neumann processor architecture, mainly because of the coexistence of memory and processing units. In these systems, the basic components are neurons interconnected by synapses. The neurons, based on their nonlinear dynamics, generate spikes that provide the main communication mechanism. The computational tasks are distributed across the neural network, where synapses implement both the memory and the computational units, by means of learning mechanisms such as spike-timing-dependent plasticity. In this work, we present an all-memristive neuromorphic architecture comprising neurons and synapses realized by using the physical properties and state dynamics of phase-change memristors. The architecture employs a novel concept of interconnecting the neurons in the same layer, resulting in level-tuned neuronal characteristics that preferentially process input information. We demonstrate the proposed architecture in the tasks of unsupervised learning and detection of multiple temporal correlations in parallel input streams. The efficiency of the neuromorphic architecture along with the homogenous neuro-synaptic dynamics implemented with nanoscale phase-change memristors represent a significant step towards the development of ultrahigh-density neuromorphic co-processors.

All-memristive neuromorphic computing with level-tuned neurons.

PubMed

Pantazi, Angeliki; Woźniak, Stanisław; Tuma, Tomas; Eleftheriou, Evangelos

2016-09-02

In the new era of cognitive computing, systems will be able to learn and interact with the environment in ways that will drastically enhance the capabilities of current processors, especially in extracting knowledge from vast amount of data obtained from many sources. Brain-inspired neuromorphic computing systems increasingly attract research interest as an alternative to the classical von Neumann processor architecture, mainly because of the coexistence of memory and processing units. In these systems, the basic components are neurons interconnected by synapses. The neurons, based on their nonlinear dynamics, generate spikes that provide the main communication mechanism. The computational tasks are distributed across the neural network, where synapses implement both the memory and the computational units, by means of learning mechanisms such as spike-timing-dependent plasticity. In this work, we present an all-memristive neuromorphic architecture comprising neurons and synapses realized by using the physical properties and state dynamics of phase-change memristors. The architecture employs a novel concept of interconnecting the neurons in the same layer, resulting in level-tuned neuronal characteristics that preferentially process input information. We demonstrate the proposed architecture in the tasks of unsupervised learning and detection of multiple temporal correlations in parallel input streams. The efficiency of the neuromorphic architecture along with the homogenous neuro-synaptic dynamics implemented with nanoscale phase-change memristors represent a significant step towards the development of ultrahigh-density neuromorphic co-processors.

Time-dependence of graph theory metrics in functional connectivity analysis

PubMed Central

Chiang, Sharon; Cassese, Alberto; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina; Yeh, Hsiang J.; Haneef, Zulfi; Stern, John M.

2016-01-01

Brain graphs provide a useful way to computationally model the network structure of the connectome, and this has led to increasing interest in the use of graph theory to quantitate and investigate the topological characteristics of the healthy brain and brain disorders on the network level. The majority of graph theory investigations of functional connectivity have relied on the assumption of temporal stationarity. However, recent evidence increasingly suggests that functional connectivity fluctuates over the length of the scan. In this study, we investigate the stationarity of brain network topology using a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) approach that estimates the dynamic structure of graph theoretical measures of whole-brain functional connectivity. In addition to extracting the stationary distribution and transition probabilities of commonly employed graph theory measures, we propose two estimators of temporal stationarity: the S-index and N-index. These indexes can be used to quantify different aspects of the temporal stationarity of graph theory measures. We apply the method and proposed estimators to resting-state functional MRI data from healthy controls and patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. Our analysis shows that several graph theory measures, including small-world index, global integration measures, and betweenness centrality, may exhibit greater stationarity over time and therefore be more robust. Additionally, we demonstrate that accounting for subject-level differences in the level of temporal stationarity of network topology may increase discriminatory power in discriminating between disease states. Our results confirm and extend findings from other studies regarding the dynamic nature of functional connectivity, and suggest that using statistical models which explicitly account for the dynamic nature of functional connectivity in graph theory analyses may improve the sensitivity of investigations and consistency across investigations. PMID:26518632

Time-dependence of graph theory metrics in functional connectivity analysis.

PubMed

Chiang, Sharon; Cassese, Alberto; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina; Yeh, Hsiang J; Haneef, Zulfi; Stern, John M

2016-01-15

Brain graphs provide a useful way to computationally model the network structure of the connectome, and this has led to increasing interest in the use of graph theory to quantitate and investigate the topological characteristics of the healthy brain and brain disorders on the network level. The majority of graph theory investigations of functional connectivity have relied on the assumption of temporal stationarity. However, recent evidence increasingly suggests that functional connectivity fluctuates over the length of the scan. In this study, we investigate the stationarity of brain network topology using a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) approach that estimates the dynamic structure of graph theoretical measures of whole-brain functional connectivity. In addition to extracting the stationary distribution and transition probabilities of commonly employed graph theory measures, we propose two estimators of temporal stationarity: the S-index and N-index. These indexes can be used to quantify different aspects of the temporal stationarity of graph theory measures. We apply the method and proposed estimators to resting-state functional MRI data from healthy controls and patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. Our analysis shows that several graph theory measures, including small-world index, global integration measures, and betweenness centrality, may exhibit greater stationarity over time and therefore be more robust. Additionally, we demonstrate that accounting for subject-level differences in the level of temporal stationarity of network topology may increase discriminatory power in discriminating between disease states. Our results confirm and extend findings from other studies regarding the dynamic nature of functional connectivity, and suggest that using statistical models which explicitly account for the dynamic nature of functional connectivity in graph theory analyses may improve the sensitivity of investigations and consistency across investigations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effective connectivity of ascending and descending frontal-thalamic pathways during sustained attention: Complex brain network interactions in adolescence

PubMed Central

Jagtap, Pranav; Diwadkar, Vaibhav A.

2016-01-01

Frontal-thalamic interactions are crucial for bottom-up gating and top-down control, yet have not been well studied from brain network perspectives. We applied network modeling of fMRI signals (Dynamic Causal Modeling; DCM) to investigate frontal-thalamic interactions during an attention task with parametrically varying levels of demand. fMRI was collected while subjects participated in a sustained continuous performance task with low and high attention demands. 162 competing model architectures were employed in DCM to evaluate hypotheses on bilateral frontal-thalamic connections and their modulation by attention demand, selected at a second level using Bayesian Model Selection. The model architecture evinced significant contextual modulation by attention of ascending (thalamus → dPFC) and descending (dPFC → thalamus) pathways. However, modulation of these pathways was asymmetric: While positive modulation of the ascending pathway was comparable across attention demand, modulation of the descending pathway was significantly greater when attention demands were increased. Increased modulation of the (dPFC → thalamus) pathway in response to increased attention demand constitutes novel evidence of attention-related gain in the connectivity of the descending attention pathway. By comparison demand-independent modulation of the ascending (thalamus → dPFC) pathway suggests unbiased thalamic inputs to the cortex in the context of the paradigm. PMID:27145923

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

Planning actions in robot automated operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, A.

1988-01-01

Action planning in robot automated operations requires intelligent task level programming. Invoking intelligence necessiates a typical blackboard based architecture, where, a plan is a vector between the start frame and the goal frame. This vector is composed of partially ordered bases. A partial ordering of bases presents good and bad sides in action planning. Partial ordering demands the use of a temporal data base management system.

Graphics Processing Unit–Enhanced Genetic Algorithms for Solving the Temporal Dynamics of Gene Regulatory Networks

PubMed Central

García-Calvo, Raúl; Guisado, JL; Diaz-del-Rio, Fernando; Córdoba, Antonio; Jiménez-Morales, Francisco

2018-01-01

Understanding the regulation of gene expression is one of the key problems in current biology. A promising method for that purpose is the determination of the temporal dynamics between known initial and ending network states, by using simple acting rules. The huge amount of rule combinations and the nonlinear inherent nature of the problem make genetic algorithms an excellent candidate for finding optimal solutions. As this is a computationally intensive problem that needs long runtimes in conventional architectures for realistic network sizes, it is fundamental to accelerate this task. In this article, we study how to develop efficient parallel implementations of this method for the fine-grained parallel architecture of graphics processing units (GPUs) using the compute unified device architecture (CUDA) platform. An exhaustive and methodical study of various parallel genetic algorithm schemes—master-slave, island, cellular, and hybrid models, and various individual selection methods (roulette, elitist)—is carried out for this problem. Several procedures that optimize the use of the GPU’s resources are presented. We conclude that the implementation that produces better results (both from the performance and the genetic algorithm fitness perspectives) is simulating a few thousands of individuals grouped in a few islands using elitist selection. This model comprises 2 mighty factors for discovering the best solutions: finding good individuals in a short number of generations, and introducing genetic diversity via a relatively frequent and numerous migration. As a result, we have even found the optimal solution for the analyzed gene regulatory network (GRN). In addition, a comparative study of the performance obtained by the different parallel implementations on GPU versus a sequential application on CPU is carried out. In our tests, a multifold speedup was obtained for our optimized parallel implementation of the method on medium class GPU over an equivalent sequential single-core implementation running on a recent Intel i7 CPU. This work can provide useful guidance to researchers in biology, medicine, or bioinformatics in how to take advantage of the parallelization on massively parallel devices and GPUs to apply novel metaheuristic algorithms powered by nature for real-world applications (like the method to solve the temporal dynamics of GRNs). PMID:29662297

Graphics Processing Unit-Enhanced Genetic Algorithms for Solving the Temporal Dynamics of Gene Regulatory Networks.

PubMed

García-Calvo, Raúl; Guisado, J L; Diaz-Del-Rio, Fernando; Córdoba, Antonio; Jiménez-Morales, Francisco

2018-01-01

Understanding the regulation of gene expression is one of the key problems in current biology. A promising method for that purpose is the determination of the temporal dynamics between known initial and ending network states, by using simple acting rules. The huge amount of rule combinations and the nonlinear inherent nature of the problem make genetic algorithms an excellent candidate for finding optimal solutions. As this is a computationally intensive problem that needs long runtimes in conventional architectures for realistic network sizes, it is fundamental to accelerate this task. In this article, we study how to develop efficient parallel implementations of this method for the fine-grained parallel architecture of graphics processing units (GPUs) using the compute unified device architecture (CUDA) platform. An exhaustive and methodical study of various parallel genetic algorithm schemes-master-slave, island, cellular, and hybrid models, and various individual selection methods (roulette, elitist)-is carried out for this problem. Several procedures that optimize the use of the GPU's resources are presented. We conclude that the implementation that produces better results (both from the performance and the genetic algorithm fitness perspectives) is simulating a few thousands of individuals grouped in a few islands using elitist selection. This model comprises 2 mighty factors for discovering the best solutions: finding good individuals in a short number of generations, and introducing genetic diversity via a relatively frequent and numerous migration. As a result, we have even found the optimal solution for the analyzed gene regulatory network (GRN). In addition, a comparative study of the performance obtained by the different parallel implementations on GPU versus a sequential application on CPU is carried out. In our tests, a multifold speedup was obtained for our optimized parallel implementation of the method on medium class GPU over an equivalent sequential single-core implementation running on a recent Intel i7 CPU. This work can provide useful guidance to researchers in biology, medicine, or bioinformatics in how to take advantage of the parallelization on massively parallel devices and GPUs to apply novel metaheuristic algorithms powered by nature for real-world applications (like the method to solve the temporal dynamics of GRNs).

Time-varying spatial data integration and visualization: 4 Dimensions Environmental Observations Platform (4-DEOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paciello, Rossana; Coviello, Irina; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Mazzeo, Giuseppe; Pergola, Nicola; Sileo, Giancanio; Tramutoli, Valerio

2014-05-01

In environmental studies the integration of heterogeneous and time-varying data, is a very common requirement for investigating and possibly visualize correlations among physical parameters underlying the dynamics of complex phenomena. Datasets used in such kind of applications has often different spatial and temporal resolutions. In some case superimposition of asynchronous layers is required. Traditionally the platforms used to perform spatio-temporal visual data analyses allow to overlay spatial data, managing the time using 'snapshot' data model, each stack of layers being labeled with different time. But this kind of architecture does not incorporate the temporal indexing neither the third spatial dimension which is usually given as an independent additional layer. Conversely, the full representation of a generic environmental parameter P(x,y,z,t) in the 4D space-time domain could allow to handle asynchronous datasets as well as less traditional data-products (e.g. vertical sections, punctual time-series, etc.) . In this paper we present the 4 Dimensions Environmental Observation Platform (4-DEOS), a system based on a web services architecture Client-Broker-Server. This platform is a new open source solution for both a timely access and an easy integration and visualization of heterogeneous (maps, vertical profiles or sections, punctual time series, etc.) asynchronous, geospatial products. The innovative aspect of the 4-DEOS system is that users can analyze data/products individually moving through time, having also the possibility to stop the display of some data/products and focus on other parameters for better studying their temporal evolution. This platform gives the opportunity to choose between two distinct display modes for time interval or for single instant. Users can choose to visualize data/products in two ways: i) showing each parameter in a dedicated window or ii) visualize all parameters overlapped in a single window. A sliding time bar, allows to follow the temporal evolution of the selected data/product. With this software, users have the possibility to identify events partially correlated each other not only in the spatial dimension but also in the time domain even at different time lags.

Bayesian spatiotemporal crash frequency models with mixture components for space-time interactions.

PubMed

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhang, Yongping; Cao, Zhong

2018-03-01

The traffic safety research has developed spatiotemporal models to explore the variations in the spatial pattern of crash risk over time. Many studies observed notable benefits associated with the inclusion of spatial and temporal correlation and their interactions. However, the safety literature lacks sufficient research for the comparison of different temporal treatments and their interaction with spatial component. This study developed four spatiotemporal models with varying complexity due to the different temporal treatments such as (I) linear time trend; (II) quadratic time trend; (III) Autoregressive-1 (AR-1); and (IV) time adjacency. Moreover, the study introduced a flexible two-component mixture for the space-time interaction which allows greater flexibility compared to the traditional linear space-time interaction. The mixture component allows the accommodation of global space-time interaction as well as the departures from the overall spatial and temporal risk patterns. This study performed a comprehensive assessment of mixture models based on the diverse criteria pertaining to goodness-of-fit, cross-validation and evaluation based on in-sample data for predictive accuracy of crash estimates. The assessment of model performance in terms of goodness-of-fit clearly established the superiority of the time-adjacency specification which was evidently more complex due to the addition of information borrowed from neighboring years, but this addition of parameters allowed significant advantage at posterior deviance which subsequently benefited overall fit to crash data. The Base models were also developed to study the comparison between the proposed mixture and traditional space-time components for each temporal model. The mixture models consistently outperformed the corresponding Base models due to the advantages of much lower deviance. For cross-validation comparison of predictive accuracy, linear time trend model was adjudged the best as it recorded the highest value of log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML). Four other evaluation criteria were considered for typical validation using the same data for model development. Under each criterion, observed crash counts were compared with three types of data containing Bayesian estimated, normal predicted, and model replicated ones. The linear model again performed the best in most scenarios except one case of using model replicated data and two cases involving prediction without including random effects. These phenomena indicated the mediocre performance of linear trend when random effects were excluded for evaluation. This might be due to the flexible mixture space-time interaction which can efficiently absorb the residual variability escaping from the predictable part of the model. The comparison of Base and mixture models in terms of prediction accuracy further bolstered the superiority of the mixture models as the mixture ones generated more precise estimated crash counts across all four models, suggesting that the advantages associated with mixture component at model fit were transferable to prediction accuracy. Finally, the residual analysis demonstrated the consistently superior performance of random effect models which validates the importance of incorporating the correlation structures to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An AI-based communication system for motor and speech disabled persons: design methodology and prototype testing.

PubMed

Sy, B K; Deller, J R

1989-05-01

An intelligent communication device is developed to assist the nonverbal, motor disabled in the generation of written and spoken messages. The device is centered on a knowledge base of the grammatical rules and message elements. A "belief" reasoning scheme based on both the information from external sources and the embedded knowledge is used to optimize the process of message search. The search for the message elements is conceptualized as a path search in the language graph, and a special frame architecture is used to construct and to partition the graph. Bayesian "belief" reasoning from the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is augmented to cope with time-varying evidence. An "information fusion" strategy is also introduced to integrate various forms of external information. Experimental testing of the prototype system is discussed.

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Dynamic Reorganization of Functional Connectivity Reveals Abnormal Temporal Efficiency in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Sun, Yu; Collinson, Simon L; Suckling, John; Sim, Kang

2018-06-07

Emerging evidence suggests that schizophrenia is associated with brain dysconnectivity. Nonetheless, the implicit assumption of stationary functional connectivity (FC) adopted in most previous resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies raises an open question of schizophrenia-related aberrations in dynamic properties of resting-state FC. This study introduces an empirical method to examine the dynamic functional dysconnectivity in patients with schizophrenia. Temporal brain networks were estimated from resting-state fMRI of 2 independent datasets (patients/controls = 18/19 and 53/57 for self-recorded dataset and a publicly available replication dataset, respectively) by the correlation of sliding time-windowed time courses among regions of a predefined atlas. Through the newly introduced temporal efficiency approach and temporal random network models, we examined, for the first time, the 3D spatiotemporal architecture of the temporal brain network. We found that although prominent temporal small-world properties were revealed in both groups, temporal brain networks of patients with schizophrenia in both datasets showed a significantly higher temporal global efficiency, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Specifically, we found localized changes of temporal nodal properties in the left frontal, right medial parietal, and subcortical areas that were associated with clinical features of schizophrenia. Our findings demonstrate that altered dynamic FC may underlie abnormal brain function and clinical symptoms observed in schizophrenia. Moreover, we provide new evidence to extend the dysconnectivity hypothesis in schizophrenia from static to dynamic brain network and highlight the potential of aberrant brain dynamic FC in unraveling the pathophysiologic mechanisms of the disease.

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Motani, Ryosuke; Jiang, Da-Yong; Tintori, Andrea; Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-Dong

2017-05-17

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Dynamical inference: where phase synchronization and generalized synchronization meet.

PubMed

Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V E; Stefanovska, Aneta

2014-06-01

Synchronization is a widespread phenomenon that occurs among interacting oscillatory systems. It facilitates their temporal coordination and can lead to the emergence of spontaneous order. The detection of synchronization from the time series of such systems is of great importance for the understanding and prediction of their dynamics, and several methods for doing so have been introduced. However, the common case where the interacting systems have time-variable characteristic frequencies and coupling parameters, and may also be subject to continuous external perturbation and noise, still presents a major challenge. Here we apply recent developments in dynamical Bayesian inference to tackle these problems. In particular, we discuss how to detect phase slips and the existence of deterministic coupling from measured data, and we unify the concepts of phase synchronization and general synchronization. Starting from phase or state observables, we present methods for the detection of both phase and generalized synchronization. The consistency and equivalence of phase and generalized synchronization are further demonstrated, by the analysis of time series from analog electronic simulations of coupled nonautonomous van der Pol oscillators. We demonstrate that the detection methods work equally well on numerically simulated chaotic systems. In all the cases considered, we show that dynamical Bayesian inference can clearly identify noise-induced phase slips and distinguish coherence from intrinsic coupling-induced synchronization.

Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter in Taipei Using Landuse Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Methods

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005–2007. PMID:21776223

Estimation of fine particulate matter in Taipei using landuse regression and bayesian maximum entropy methods.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-06-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy Integration of Ozone Observations and Model Predictions: A National Application.

PubMed

Xu, Yadong; Serre, Marc L; Reyes, Jeanette; Vizuete, William

2016-04-19

To improve ozone exposure estimates for ambient concentrations at a national scale, we introduce our novel Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) approach to integrate chemical transport model (CTM) predictions with the available ozone observations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework. The framework models the nonlinear and nonhomoscedastic relation between air pollution observations and CTM predictions and for the first time accounts for variability in CTM model performance. A validation analysis using only noncollocated data outside of a validation radius rv was performed and the R(2) between observations and re-estimated values for two daily metrics, the daily maximum 8-h average (DM8A) and the daily 24-h average (D24A) ozone concentrations, were obtained with the OBS scenario using ozone observations only in contrast with the RAMP and a Constant Air Quality Model Performance (CAMP) scenarios. We show that, by accounting for the spatial and temporal variability in model performance, our novel RAMP approach is able to extract more information in terms of R(2) increase percentage, with over 12 times for the DM8A and over 3.5 times for the D24A ozone concentrations, from CTM predictions than the CAMP approach assuming that model performance does not change across space and time.

The role of peripheral endemism in species diversification: evidence from the coral reef fish genus Anampses (Family: Labridae).

PubMed

Hodge, Jennifer R; Read, Charmaine I; van Herwerden, Lynne; Bellwood, David R

2012-02-01

We examined how peripherally isolated endemic species may have contributed to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago biodiversity hotspot by reconstructing the evolutionary history of the wrasse genus Anampses. We identified three alternate models of diversification: the vicariance-based 'successive division' model, and the dispersal-based 'successive colonisation' and 'peripheral budding' models. The genus was well suited for this study given its relatively high proportion (42%) of endemic species, its reasonably low diversity (12 species), which permitted complete taxon sampling, and its widespread tropical Indo-Pacific distribution. Monophyly of the genus was strongly supported by three phylogenetic analyses: maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference based on mitochondrial CO1 and 12S rRNA and nuclear S7 sequences. Estimates of species divergence times from fossil-calibrated Bayesian inference suggest that Anampses arose in the mid-Eocene and subsequently diversified throughout the Miocene. Evolutionary relationships within the genus, combined with limited spatial and temporal concordance among endemics, offer support for all three alternate models of diversification. Our findings emphasise the importance of peripherally isolated locations in creating and maintaining endemic species and their contribution to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.