The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Temporal genetic stability of Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) populations.

PubMed

Gloria-Soria, A; Kellner, D A; Brown, J E; Gonzalez-Acosta, C; Kamgang, B; Lutwama, J; Powell, J R

2016-06-01

The mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the primary vector of viruses that cause yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya fever. In the absence of effective vaccines, the reduction of these diseases relies on vector control strategies. The success of these strategies is tightly linked to the population dynamics of target populations. In the present study, 14 collections from St. aegypti populations separated by periods of 1-13 years were analysed to determine their temporal genetic stability. Although temporal structure is discernible in most populations, the degree of temporal differentiation is dependent on the population and does not obscure the geographic structure of the various populations. The results suggest that performing detailed studies in the years prior to and after population reduction- or modification-based control interventions at each target field site may be useful in assessing the probability of success. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J.K., Hunter, G.J. (2007) A spatio-temporal population model to support risk assessment and damage analysis for decision-making. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(8), 935-953. Aubrecht, C., Fuchs, S., Neuhold, C. (2013a) Spatio-temporal aspects and dimensions in integrated disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 68(3), 1205-1216. Aubrecht, C., Özceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S. (2013b) Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Natural Hazards, 68(1), 147-163. Bhaduri, B. (2008) Population distribution during the day. In S. Shekhar & X. Hui, eds., Encyclopedia of GIS. Springer US, 880-885. Cockings, S., Martin, D. & Leung, S. (2010) Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models. In M. Haklay, J. Morley, & H. Rahemtulla, eds., Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual conference. GISRUK 2010. London, UK, 41-47. Freire, S., Aubrecht, C. (2012) Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(11), 3533-3543.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

The role of insect dispersal and migration in population processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabb, R. L.; Stinner, R. E.

1979-01-01

Movement functions in the population dynamics of insects are discussed. Modes of movement, movement from a population view, and population patterns are described and predicted. A wide-area of spatial and temporal patterns are presented.

Temporal dynamics and impact of event interactions in cyber-social populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Li, Xiang

2013-03-01

The advance of information technologies provides powerful measures to digitize social interactions and facilitate quantitative investigations. To explore large-scale indoor interactions of a social population, we analyze 18 715 users' Wi-Fi access logs recorded in a Chinese university campus during 3 months, and define event interaction (EI) to characterize the concurrent interactions of multiple users inferred by their geographic coincidences—co-locating in the same small region at the same time. We propose three rules to construct a transmission graph, which depicts the topological and temporal features of event interactions. The vertex dynamics of transmission graph tells that the active durations of EIs fall into the truncated power-law distributions, which is independent on the number of involved individuals. The edge dynamics of transmission graph reports that the transmission durations present a truncated power-law pattern independent on the daily and weekly periodicities. Besides, in the aggregated transmission graph, low-degree vertices previously neglected in the aggregated static networks may participate in the large-degree EIs, which is verified by three data sets covering different sizes of social populations with various rendezvouses. This work highlights the temporal significance of event interactions in cyber-social populations.

Temporal dynamics of linkage disequilibrium in two populations of bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Miller, Joshua M; Poissant, Jocelyn; Malenfant, René M; Hogg, John T; Coltman, David W

2015-01-01

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the nonrandom association of alleles at two markers. Patterns of LD have biological implications as well as practical ones when designing association studies or conservation programs aimed at identifying the genetic basis of fitness differences within and among populations. However, the temporal dynamics of LD in wild populations has received little empirical attention. In this study, we examined the overall extent of LD, the effect of sample size on the accuracy and precision of LD estimates, and the temporal dynamics of LD in two populations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) with different demographic histories. Using over 200 microsatellite loci, we assessed two metrics of multi-allelic LD, D′, and χ′2. We found that both populations exhibited high levels of LD, although the extent was much shorter in a native population than one that was founded via translocation, experienced a prolonged bottleneck post founding, followed by recent admixture. In addition, we observed significant variation in LD in relation to the sample size used, with small sample sizes leading to depressed estimates of the extent of LD but inflated estimates of background levels of LD. In contrast, there was not much variation in LD among yearly cross-sections within either population once sample size was accounted for. Lack of pronounced interannual variability suggests that researchers may not have to worry about interannual variation when estimating LD in a population and can instead focus on obtaining the largest sample size possible. PMID:26380673

Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman; J. B. Dunham

2003-01-01

Metapopulation dynamics have emerged as a key consideration in conservation planning for salmonid fishes. Implicit to many models of spatially structured populations is a degree of synchrony, or correlation, among populations. We used a spatially and temporally extensive database of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central...

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Schindler, Daniel E; Lisi, Peter J; Holtgrieve, Gordon W; Leavitt, Peter R; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P; Selbie, Daniel T; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J; Walsh, Patrick B

2013-01-29

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.; Holtgrieve, Gordon W.; Leavitt, Peter R.; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P.; Selbie, Daniel T.; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J.; Walsh, Patrick B.

2013-01-01

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems. PMID:23322737

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a tree-killing beetle and its predator

Treesearch

Aaron S. Weed; Matthew P. Ayres; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ronald F. Billings

2016-01-01

Resolving linkages between local-scale processes and regional-scale patterns in abundance of interacting species is important for understanding long-term population stability across spatial scales. Landscape patterning in consumer population dynamics may be largely the result of interactions between consumers and their predators, or driven by spatial variation in basal...

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from center to margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Taper, M.L.; Schoenberger, M.; Brandl, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species' ranges and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-temporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in altering birth and death rates, balancing source and sink habitats, and governing expansion or contraction of species' ranges in changing environments. We also showed that the multiple equilibria of metapopulations across a species' range could be easily broken following climatic changes or physical disturbances either or local or regional. Although we refer to our models as describing the population dynamics across whole species' range, they should also apply to small-scale habitats (metapopulations) in which species abundance follows a humped pattern or to any ecosystem or landscape where strong central-marginal (C-M) environmental gradients exist. Conservation of both central and marginal populations would therefore be equally important considerations in making management decisions.

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: From centre to margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Taper, M.; Schoenberger, M.; Brandle, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species' ranges and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-temporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in altering birth and death rates, balancing source and sink habitats, and governing expansion or contraction of species' ranges in changing environments. We also showed that the multiple equilibria of metapopulations across a species' range could be easily broken following climatic changes or physical disturbances either local or regional. Although we refer to our models as describing the population dynamics across whole species' range, they should also apply to small-scale habitats (metapopulations) in which species abundance follows a humped pattern or to any ecosystem or landscape where strong central-marginal (C-M) environmental gradients exist. Conservation of both central and marginal populations would therefore be equally important considerations in making management decisions.

Factors influencing the spatial and temporal dynamics of engelmann spruce mortality during a spruce beetle outbreak on the Markagunt Plateau, Utah

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; James N. Long

2012-01-01

Host conditions are known to influence spruce beetle population levels, but whether they influence the spatial and temporal patterns of beetle-caused mortality during an outbreak is unknown. Using dendrochronological techniques, we quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of a modern (late 1980s through the early 2000s) spruce beetle outbreak in Engelmann spruce on the...

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from centre to margin

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Mark Taper; Michele Schoenberger; J. Brandle

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species'rangs and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-tamporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in...

Estimation of the spatial autocorrelation function: consequences of sampling dynamic populations in space and time

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin

2004-01-01

The estimation of spatial autocorrelation in spatially- and temporally-referenced data is fundamental to understanding an organism's population biology. I used four sets of census field data, and developed an idealized space-time dynamic system, to study the behavior of spatial autocorrelation estimates when a practical method of sampling is employed. Estimates...

Natural image sequences constrain dynamic receptive fields and imply a sparse code.

PubMed

Häusler, Chris; Susemihl, Alex; Nawrot, Martin P

2013-11-06

In their natural environment, animals experience a complex and dynamic visual scenery. Under such natural stimulus conditions, neurons in the visual cortex employ a spatially and temporally sparse code. For the input scenario of natural still images, previous work demonstrated that unsupervised feature learning combined with the constraint of sparse coding can predict physiologically measured receptive fields of simple cells in the primary visual cortex. This convincingly indicated that the mammalian visual system is adapted to the natural spatial input statistics. Here, we extend this approach to the time domain in order to predict dynamic receptive fields that can account for both spatial and temporal sparse activation in biological neurons. We rely on temporal restricted Boltzmann machines and suggest a novel temporal autoencoding training procedure. When tested on a dynamic multi-variate benchmark dataset this method outperformed existing models of this class. Learning features on a large dataset of natural movies allowed us to model spatio-temporal receptive fields for single neurons. They resemble temporally smooth transformations of previously obtained static receptive fields and are thus consistent with existing theories. A neuronal spike response model demonstrates how the dynamic receptive field facilitates temporal and population sparseness. We discuss the potential mechanisms and benefits of a spatially and temporally sparse representation of natural visual input. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) health indicators: linking individual-based indicators to a management-relevant endpoint

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jones, Michael L.; Ebener, Mark P.; Arts, Michael T.; Brenden, Travis O.; Honeyfield, Dale C.; Wright, Gregory M.; Faisal, Mohamed

2010-01-01

We examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of health indicators in four lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) stocks located in northern lakes Michigan and Huron from 2003 to 2006. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify spatial and temporal variability in health indicators; (2) examine relationships among nutritional indicators and stock-specific spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection; and (3) examine relationships between indicators measured on individual fish and stock-specific estimates of natural mortality. The percent of the total variation attributed to spatial and temporal sources varied greatly depending on the health indicator examined. The most notable pattern was a downward trend in the concentration of highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), observed in all stocks, in the polar lipid fraction of lake whitefish dorsal muscle tissue over the three study years. Variation among stocks and years for some indicators were correlated with the prevalence and intensity of the swimbladder nematode Cystidicola farionis, suggesting that our measures of fish health were related, at some level, with disease dynamics. We did not find relationships between spatial patterns in fish health indicators and estimates of natural mortality rates for the stocks. Our research highlights the complexity of the interactions between fish nutritional status, disease dynamics, and natural mortality in wild fish populations. Additional research that identifies thresholds of health indicators, below (or above) which survival may be reduced, will greatly help in understanding the relationship between indicators measured on individual fish and potential population-level effects.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Fellous, Simon; Kaltz, Oliver

2011-01-01

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host–parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range. PMID:21450730

Spatio-Temporal Patterning in Primary Motor Cortex at Movement Onset.

PubMed

Best, Matthew D; Suminski, Aaron J; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Brown, Kevin A; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G

2017-02-01

Voluntary movement initiation involves the engagement of large populations of motor cortical neurons around movement onset. Despite knowledge of the temporal dynamics that lead to movement, the spatial structure of these dynamics across the cortical surface remains unknown. In data from 4 rhesus macaques, we show that the timing of attenuation of beta frequency local field potential oscillations, a correlate of locally activated cortex, forms a spatial gradient across primary motor cortex (MI). We show that these spatio-temporal dynamics are recapitulated in the engagement order of ensembles of MI neurons. We demonstrate that these patterns are unique to movement onset and suggest that movement initiation requires a precise spatio-temporal sequential activation of neurons in MI. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Estay, Sergio A; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Rubilar, Paola; Broutin, Hélène; Chowell-Puente, Gerardo

2015-12-30

The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries. Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952-2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975-1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990-2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. During the first decades, differences in periodic patterns across regions can be explained by the differences in susceptible recruitment. The observed shift in periodicity from the period 1952-1974 to the period 1975-1995 across regions was relatively well predicted by the susceptible recruitment and population size. However, data on vaccination rates was not taken into account in this study. Our findings highlight how demography and population size have interacted with the immunization program in shaping periodicity along a unique latitudinal gradient. Widespread B. pertussis vaccination appears to lead to longer periodic dynamics, which is line with a reduction in B. pertussis transmission, but our findings indicate that regions characterized by both low birth rate and population size decreased in periodicity following immunization efforts.

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment.

PubMed

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-07-03

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range.

Spatio-temporal variation in Helicoverpa egg parasitism by Trichogramma in a tropical Bt-transgenic cotton landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of insects in agroecosystems is crucial when developing effective management strategies that emphasise biological control of pests. Wild populations of Trichogramma Westwood egg parasitoids are utilised for biological suppression of the potentially resistan...

Dynamic imaging in mild traumatic brain injury: support for the theory of medial temporal vulnerability.

PubMed

Umile, Eric M; Sandel, M Elizabeth; Alavi, Abass; Terry, Charles M; Plotkin, Rosette C

2002-11-01

To determine whether patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) and persistent postconcussive symptoms have evidence of temporal lobe injury on dynamic imaging. Case series. An academic medical center. Twenty patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild TBI and persistent postconcussive symptoms were referred for neuropsychologic evaluation and dynamic imaging. Fifteen (75%) had normal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and/or computed tomography (CT) scans at the time of injury. Neuropsychologic testing, positron-emission tomography (PET), and single-photon emission-computed tomography (SPECT). Temporal lobe findings on static imaging (MRI, CT) and dynamic imaging (PET, SPECT); neuropsychologic test findings on measures of verbal and visual memory. Testing documented neurobehavioral deficits in 19 patients (95%). Dynamic imaging documented abnormal findings in 18 patients (90%). Fifteen patients (75%) had temporal lobe abnormalities on PET and SPECT (primarily in medial temporal regions); abnormal findings were bilateral in 10 patients (50%) and unilateral in 5 (25%). Six patients (30%) had frontal abnormalities, and 8 (40%) had nonfrontotemporal abnormalities. Correlations between neuropsychologic testing and dynamic imaging could be established but not consistently across the whole group. Patients with mild TBI and persistent postconcussive symptoms have a high incidence of temporal lobe injury (presumably involving the hippocampus and related structures), which may explain the frequent finding of memory disorders in this population. The abnormal temporal lobe findings on PET and SPECT in humans may be analogous to the neuropathologic evidence of medial temporal injury provided by animal studies after mild TBI. Copyright 2002 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Reproductive responses to spatial and temporal prey availability in a coastal Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Eide, Nina E; Stien, Audun; Prestrud, Pål; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Fuglei, Eva

2012-05-01

1. Input of external subsidies in the Arctic may have substantial effects on predator populations that otherwise would have been limited by low local primary productivity. 2. We explore life-history traits, age-specific fecundity, litter sizes and survival, and the population dynamics of an Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population to explore the influence of the spatial distribution and temporal availability of its main prey; including both resident and migrating (external) prey resources. 3. This study reveals that highly predictable cross-boundary subsidies from the marine food web, acting through seasonal access to seabirds, sustain larger local Arctic fox populations. Arctic fox dens located close to the coast in Svalbard were found to have higher occupancy rates, as expected from both high availability and high temporal and spatial predictability of prey resources (temporally stable external subsidies). Whereas the occupancy rate of inland dens varied between years in relation to the abundance of reindeer carcasses (temporally varying resident prey). 4. With regard to demography, juvenile Arctic foxes in Svalbard have lower survival rates and a high age of first reproduction compared with other populations. We suggest this may be caused by a lack of unoccupied dens and a saturated population. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

High-throughput analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics in Dictyostelium

PubMed Central

Sawai, Satoshi; Guan, Xiao-Juan; Kuspa, Adam; Cox, Edward C

2007-01-01

We demonstrate a time-lapse video approach that allows rapid examination of the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dictyostelium cell populations. Quantitative information was gathered by sampling life histories of more than 2,000 mutant clones from a large mutagenesis collection. Approximately 4% of the clonal lines showed a mutant phenotype at one stage. Many of these could be ordered by clustering into functional groups. The dataset allows one to search and retrieve movies on a gene-by-gene and phenotype-by-phenotype basis. PMID:17659086

Evolutionary history of Daphnia drives divergence in grazing selectivity and alters temporal community dynamics of producers.

PubMed

Park, John S; Post, David M

2018-01-01

Consumers with different seasonal life histories encounter different communities of producers during specific seasonal phases. If consumers evolve to prefer the producers that they encounter, then consumers may reciprocally influence the temporal composition of producer communities. Here, we study the keystone consumer Daphnia ambigua, whose seasonal life history has diverged due to intraspecific predator divergence across lakes of New England. We ask whether grazing preferences of Daphnia have diverged also and test whether any grazing differences influence temporal composition patterns of producers. We reared clonal populations of Daphnia from natural populations representing the two diverged life history types for multiple generations. We conducted short-term (24 hr) and long-term (27 days) grazing experiments in equal polycultures consisting of three diatom and two green algae species, treated with no consumer, Daphnia from lakes with anadromous alewife, or from lakes with landlocked alewife. After 24 hr, life history and grazing preference divergence in Daphnia ambigua drove significant differences in producer composition. However, those differences disappeared at the end of the 27-day experiment. Our results illustrate that, despite potentially more complex long-term dynamics, a multitrophic cascade of evolutionary divergence from a predator can influence temporal community dynamics at the producer level.

Unfair and Anomalous Evolutionary Dynamics from Fluctuating Payoffs.

PubMed

Stollmeier, Frank; Nagler, Jan

2018-02-02

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. Reproduction depends on the payoff a strategy receives. The payoff depends on the environment that may change over time, on intrinsic uncertainties, and on other sources of randomness. These temporal variations in the payoffs can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics that are affected by varying payoffs remains difficult. Here we study the impact of arbitrary amplitudes and covariances of temporally varying payoffs on the dynamics. The evolutionary dynamics may be "unfair," meaning that, on average, two coexisting strategies may persistently receive different payoffs. This mechanism can induce an anomalous coexistence of cooperators and defectors in the prisoner's dilemma, and an unexpected selection reversal in the hawk-dove game.

Unfair and Anomalous Evolutionary Dynamics from Fluctuating Payoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stollmeier, Frank; Nagler, Jan

2018-02-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. Reproduction depends on the payoff a strategy receives. The payoff depends on the environment that may change over time, on intrinsic uncertainties, and on other sources of randomness. These temporal variations in the payoffs can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics that are affected by varying payoffs remains difficult. Here we study the impact of arbitrary amplitudes and covariances of temporally varying payoffs on the dynamics. The evolutionary dynamics may be "unfair," meaning that, on average, two coexisting strategies may persistently receive different payoffs. This mechanism can induce an anomalous coexistence of cooperators and defectors in the prisoner's dilemma, and an unexpected selection reversal in the hawk-dove game.

Long-term dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni among Rattus rattus in patchy environment.

PubMed

Théron, A; Pointier, J P; Morand, S; Imbert-Establet, D; Borel, G

1992-04-01

Dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni were studied during 8 consecutive years among Rattus rattus populations from 8 transmission sites of the marshy forest focus of Guadeloupe (French West Indies). The schistosome population is over-dispersed (k = 0.119) within the murine hosts and ecological factors linked to the patchy environment may be responsible for such aggregated distribution. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variations in prevalences, intensities and abundances showed limited variations of the infection during the 8 years at the level of the whole parasite population but great spatial heterogeneity at the level of local schistosome populations. Inter-populational genetic variability linked to the degree of adaptation of this human parasite to the murine host may explain differences in transmission dynamics between the local populations of S. mansoni.

Vegetation dynamics

Treesearch

Sammy L. King; Terry J. Antrobus; Sarah Billups

2000-01-01

A disturbance can be defined as "any relatively discrete event in time that disrupts ecosystem, community, or population structure and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment" (Pickett and White 1985). Vegetation dynamics are a function of the temporal and spatial patterns of the disturbance regime. Natural disturbance regimes...

Variation in predator foraging behavior changes predator-prey spatio-temporal dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Foraging underlies the ability of all animals to acquire essential resources and, thus, provides a critical link to understanding population dynamics. A key issue is how variation in foraging behavior affects foraging efficiency and predator-prey interactions in spatially-heterogeneous environmen...

Differential dynamics of spatial attention, position, and color coding within the parietofrontal network.

PubMed

Astrand, Elaine; Ibos, Guilhem; Duhamel, Jean-René; Ben Hamed, Suliann

2015-02-18

Despite an ever growing knowledge on how parietal and prefrontal neurons encode low-level spatial and color information or higher-level information, such as spatial attention, an understanding of how these cortical regions process neuronal information at the population level is still missing. A simple assumption would be that the function and temporal response profiles of these neuronal populations match that of its constituting individual cells. However, several recent studies suggest that this is not necessarily the case and that the single-cell approach overlooks dynamic changes in how information is distributed over the neuronal population. Here, we use a time-resolved population pattern analysis to explore how spatial position, spatial attention and color information are differentially encoded and maintained in the macaque monkey prefrontal (frontal eye fields) and parietal cortex (lateral intraparietal area). Overall, our work brings about three novel observations. First, we show that parietal and prefrontal populations operate in two distinct population regimens for the encoding of sensory and cognitive information: a stationary mode and a dynamic mode. Second, we show that the temporal dynamics of a heterogeneous neuronal population brings about complementary information to that of its functional subpopulations. Thus, both need to be investigated in parallel. Last, we show that identifying the neuronal configuration in which a neuronal population encodes given information can serve to reveal this same information in a different context. All together, this work challenges common views on neural coding in the parietofrontal network. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/353174-16$15.00/0.

Sampling methods to detect and estimate populations of Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank) (Sarcoptiformes: Acaridae) infesting dry-cured hams

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial and temporal dynamics of pest populations is an important aspect of effective pest management. However, absolute sampling of some pest populations such as the ham mite, Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank) (Sarcoptiformes: Acaridae), a serious pest of dry-cured ham, can be difficult. Sampling ...

Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

2017-12-01

In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

Investigation of Kibble-Zurek Quench Dynamics in a Spin-1 Ferromagnetic BEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquez, Martin; Robbins, Bryce; Hoang, Thai; Yang, Xiaoyun; Land, Benjamin; Hamley, Christopher; Chapman, Michael

2014-05-01

We study the temporal evolution of spin populations in small spin-1 87Rb condensates following a slow quench. A ferromagnetic spin-1 BEC exhibits a second-order gapless (quantum) phase transition due to a competition between the magnetic and collisional spin interaction energies. The dynamics of slow quenches through the critical point are predicted to exhibit universal power-law scaling as a function of quench speed. In spatially extended condensates, these excitations are revealed as spatial spin domains. In small condensates, the excitations are manifest in the temporal evolution of the spin populations, illustrating a Kibble-Zurek type scaling. We will present the results of our investigation and compare them to full quantum simulations of the system.

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment

PubMed Central

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-01-01

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range. PMID:26138760

Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

PubMed

Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

2017-10-15

The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

PubMed

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

IN-STREAM AND WATERSHED PREDICTORS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY, EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE AND IMMIGRATION ACROSS RIVER-STREAM NETWORKS

EPA Science Inventory

The influence of spatial processes on population dynamics within river-stream networks is poorly understood. Utilizing spatially explicit analyses of temporal genetic variance, we examined whether persistence of Central Stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) reflects differences in h...

The geography of spatial synchrony

Treesearch

Jonathan A. Walter; Lawrence W. Sheppard; Thomas L. Anderson; Jude H. Kastens; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew M. Liebhold; Daniel C. Reuman; Bernd Blasius

2017-01-01

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the...

Modulation of Temporal Precision in Thalamic Population Responses to Natural Visual Stimuli

PubMed Central

Desbordes, Gaëlle; Jin, Jianzhong; Alonso, Jose-Manuel; Stanley, Garrett B.

2010-01-01

Natural visual stimuli have highly structured spatial and temporal properties which influence the way visual information is encoded in the visual pathway. In response to natural scene stimuli, neurons in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) are temporally precise – on a time scale of 10–25 ms – both within single cells and across cells within a population. This time scale, established by non stimulus-driven elements of neuronal firing, is significantly shorter than that of natural scenes, yet is critical for the neural representation of the spatial and temporal structure of the scene. Here, a generalized linear model (GLM) that combines stimulus-driven elements with spike-history dependence associated with intrinsic cellular dynamics is shown to predict the fine timing precision of LGN responses to natural scene stimuli, the corresponding correlation structure across nearby neurons in the population, and the continuous modulation of spike timing precision and latency across neurons. A single model captured the experimentally observed neural response, across different levels of contrasts and different classes of visual stimuli, through interactions between the stimulus correlation structure and the nonlinearity in spike generation and spike history dependence. Given the sensitivity of the thalamocortical synapse to closely timed spikes and the importance of fine timing precision for the faithful representation of natural scenes, the modulation of thalamic population timing over these time scales is likely important for cortical representations of the dynamic natural visual environment. PMID:21151356

Spatial and temporal distribution of the vibrionaceae in coastal waters of Hawaii, Australia, and France.

PubMed

Jones, B W; Maruyama, A; Ouverney, C C; Nishiguchi, M K

2007-08-01

Relatively little is known about large-scale spatial and temporal fluctuations in bacterioplankton, especially within the bacterial families. In general, however, a number of abiotic factors (namely, nutrients and temperature) appear to influence distribution. Community dynamics within the Vibrionaceae are of particular interest to biologists because this family contains a number of important pathogenic, commensal, and mutualist species. Of special interest to this study is the mutualism between sepiolid squids and Vibrio fischeri and Vibrio logei, where host squids seed surrounding waters daily with their bacterial partners. This study seeks to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the Vibrionaceae with respect to V. fischeri and V. logei in Hawaii, southeastern Australia, and southern France sampling sites. In particular, we examine how the presence of sepiolid squid hosts influences community population structure within the Vibrionaceae. We found that abiotic (temperature) and biotic (host distribution) factors both influence population dynamics. In Hawaii, three sites within squid host habitat contained communities of Vibrionaceae with higher proportions of V. fischeri. In Australia, V. fischeri numbers at host collection sites were greater than other populations; however, there were no spatial or temporal patterns seen at other sample sites. In France, host presence did not appear to influence Vibrio communities, although sampled populations were significantly greater in the winter than summer sampling periods. Results of this study demonstrate the importance of understanding how both abiotic and biotic factors interact to influence bacterial community structure within the Vibrionaceae.

Dynamics of an Anthropogenic Fire Regime

Treesearch

R. P. Guyette; R. M. Muzika; D. C. Dey

2002-01-01

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri...

Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; R. M. Muzika; Daniel C. Dey

2002-01-01

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri...

Microsatellite DNA Analysis Revealed a Drastic Genetic Change of Plasmodium vivax Population in the Republic of Korea During 2002 and 2003

PubMed Central

Iwagami, Moritoshi; Hwang, Seung-Young; Kim, So-Hee; Park, So-Jung; Lee, Ga-Young; Matsumoto-Takahashi, Emilie Louise Akiko; Kho, Weon-Gyu; Kano, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

Background Vivax malaria was successfully eliminated in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in the late 1970s, but it was found to have re-emerged from 1993. In order to control malaria and evaluate the effectiveness of malaria controls, it is important to develop a spatiotemporal understanding of the genetic structure of the parasite population. Here, we estimated the population structure and temporal dynamics of the transmission of Plasmodium vivax in South Korea by analyzing microsatellite DNA markers of the parasite. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 14 microsatellite DNA loci of the P. vivax genome from 163 South Korean isolates collected from 1994 to 2008. Allelic data were used to analyze linkage disequilibrium (LD), genetic differentiation and population structure, in order to make a detailed estimate of temporal change in the parasite population. The LD analysis showed a gradual decrease in LD levels, while the levels of genetic differentiation between successive years and analysis of the population structure based on the Bayesian approach suggested that a drastic genetic change occurred in the South Korean population during 2002 and 2003. Conclusions/Significance Although relapse and asymptomatic parasite carriage might influence the population structure to some extent, our results suggested the continual introduction of P. vivax into South Korea through other parasite population sources. One possible source, particularly during 2002 and 2003, is North Korea. Molecular epidemiology using microsatellite DNA of the P. vivax population is effective for assessing the population structure and temporal dynamics of parasite transmission; information that can assist in the elimination of vivax malaria in endemic areas. PMID:24205429

Global Rice Watch: Spatial-temporal dynamics, driving factors, and impacts of paddy rice agriculture in the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Zhang, G.; Xin, F.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Paddy rice croplands account for more than 12% of the global cropland areas, and provide food to feed more than 50% of the world population. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands have changed remarkably in the past decades, driven by growing human population and their changing diet structure, land use (e.g., urbanization, industrialization), climate, markets, and technologies. In this presentation, we will provide a comprehensive review of our current knowledge on (1) the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands from agricultural statistics data and remote sensing approaches; (2) major driving factors for the observed changes in paddy rice areas, including social, economic, climate, land use, markets, crop breeding technology, and farming technology; and (3) major impacts on atmospheric methane concentration, land surface temperature, water resources and use, and so on. We will highlight the results from a few case studies in China and monsoon Asia. We will also call for a global synthesis analysis of paddy rice agriculture, and invite researchers to join the effort to write and edit a book that provides comprehensive and updated knowledge on paddy rice agriculture.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Single-trial dynamics of motor cortex and their applications to brain-machine interfaces

PubMed Central

Kao, Jonathan C.; Nuyujukian, Paul; Ryu, Stephen I.; Churchland, Mark M.; Cunningham, John P.; Shenoy, Krishna V.

2015-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that neural population responses have their own internal drive, or dynamics, that describe how the neural population evolves through time. An important prediction of neural dynamical models is that previously observed neural activity is informative of noisy yet-to-be-observed activity on single-trials, and may thus have a denoising effect. To investigate this prediction, we built and characterized dynamical models of single-trial motor cortical activity. We find these models capture salient dynamical features of the neural population and are informative of future neural activity on single trials. To assess how neural dynamics may beneficially denoise single-trial neural activity, we incorporate neural dynamics into a brain–machine interface (BMI). In online experiments, we find that a neural dynamical BMI achieves substantially higher performance than its non-dynamical counterpart. These results provide evidence that neural dynamics beneficially inform the temporal evolution of neural activity on single trials and may directly impact the performance of BMIs. PMID:26220660

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

PubMed Central

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure.

PubMed

Watts, Alexander G; Schlichting, Peter E; Billerman, Shawn M; Jesmer, Brett R; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Diversity of Fusarium head blight populations and trichothecene toxin types reveals regional differences in pathogen composition and temporal dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Analyses of genetic diversity, trichothecene genotype composition, and population structure were conducted using 4,086 Fusarium graminearum isolates collected from wheat in eight Canadian provinces over a three year period between 2005 and 2007. The results revealed substantial regional differences ...

The efficacy of a panel study for assessing the temporal stability of hunting participation and constraints

Treesearch

Ellen B. Drogin Rodgers; Brett A. Wright; Kenneth F. Backman

2003-01-01

The intent of this study of Virginia hunters/nonhunters was to test the efficacy of panel research for assessing the temporal stability of hunting participation and constraints. Findings suggest that participation/nonparticipation patterns were stable across time periods for the population, yet dynamic at the individual level. Although the structure of perceived...

What tree-ring reconstruction tells us about conifer defoliator outbreaks

Treesearch

Ann M. Lynch

2012-01-01

Our ability to understand the dynamics of forest insect outbreaks is limited by the lack of long-term data describing the temporal and spatial trends of outbreaks, the size and long life span of host plants, and the impracticability of manipulative experiments at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Population responses can be studied across varying site and stand...

Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of isolated emerald ash borer populations

Treesearch

Nathan W. Siegert; Andrew M. Liebhold; Deborah G. McCullough

2008-01-01

The ability to predict the distance and rate of emerald ash borer (EAB) spread in outlier populations is needed to continue development of effective management strategies for improved EAB control. We have developed a coupled map lattice model to estimate the spread and dispersal of isolated emerald ash borer populations. This model creates an artificial environment in...

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (RST = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (RST = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (RST = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m ~ 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view. PMID:22151746

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee Kerkhof

The focus of our research was to provide a comprehensive study of the bacterioplankton populations off the coast of New Jersey near the Rutgers University marine field station using terminal restriction fragment polymorphism analysis (TRFLP) coupled to 16S rRNA genes for large data set studies. Our three revised objectives to this study became: (1) to describe bacterioplankton population dynamics in the Mid Atlantic Bight using TRFLP analysis of 16S rRNA genes. (2) to determine whether spatial and temporal factors are driving bacterioplankton community dynamics in the MAB using monthly samping along our transect line over a 2-year period. (3) tomore » identify dominant members of a coastal bacterioplankton population by clonal library analysis of 16S rDNA genes and sequencing of PCR product corresponding to specific TRFLP peaks in the data set. Although open ocean time-series sites have been areas of microbial research for years, relatively little was known about the population dynamics of bacterioplankton communities in the coastal ocean on kilometer spatial and seasonal temporal scales. To gain a better understanding of microbial community variability, monthly samples of bacterial biomass were collected in 1995-1996 along a 34-km transect near the Long-Term Ecosystem Observatory (LEO-15) off the New Jersey coast. Surface and bottom sampling was performed at seven stations along a transect line with depths ranging from 1 to 35m (n=178). The data revealed distinct temporal patterns among the bacterioplankton communities in the Mid-Atlantic Bight rather than grouping by sample location or depth (figure 2-next page). Principal components analysis models supported the temporal patterns. In addition, partial least squares regression modeling could not discern a significant correlation from traditional oceanographic physical and phytoplankton nutrient parameters on overall bacterial community variability patterns at LEO-15. These results suggest factors not traditionally measured during oceanographic studies are structuring coastal microbial communities.« less

Host-plant relationships and comparative ecology of conifer - feeding budworms (Choristoneura spp.)

Treesearch

V. G. Nealis

2003-01-01

North American budworms are eruptive insect species that form intimate ecological relationships with their host trees. Population data for the eastern spruce budworm and jack pine budworm implicate natural enemies as primary determinants of population collapses. Yet the dynamics of these two species display markedly different temporal and spatial characteristics. One...

Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2015-01-01

Landscape keystone structures associated with roosting habitat emerged as regionally important predictors of bat distributions. The challenges of bat monitoring have constrained previous species distribution modelling efforts to temporally static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends to broader spatial and temporal scales than has been possible in the past for bats, making a substantial increase in capacity for bat conservation.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

Treesearch

Walter D. Koenig; Andrew M. Liebhold

2016-01-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony—the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape—despite the...

Phase coupling and synchrony in the spatiotemporal dynamics of muskrat and mink populations across Canada

PubMed Central

Haydon, D. T.; Stenseth, N. C.; Boyce, M. S.; Greenwood, P. E.

2001-01-01

Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species—declining from west to east—together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located. PMID:11606729

Exploring space-time structure of human mobility in urban space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J. B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, Y.; Si, H. B.; Shan, X. M.

2011-03-01

Understanding of human mobility in urban space benefits the planning and provision of municipal facilities and services. Due to the high penetration of cell phones, mobile cellular networks provide information for urban dynamics with a large spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage in comparison with traditional approaches. The original data investigated in this paper were collected by cellular networks in a southern city of China, recording the population distribution by dividing the city into thousands of pixels. The space-time structure of urban dynamics is explored by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the original data, from temporal and spatial perspectives between which there is a dual relation. Based on the results of the analysis, we have discovered four underlying rules of urban dynamics: low intrinsic dimensionality, three categories of common patterns, dominance of periodic trends, and temporal stability. It implies that the space-time structure can be captured well by remarkably few temporal or spatial predictable periodic patterns, and the structure unearthed by PCA evolves stably over time. All these features play a critical role in the applications of forecasting and anomaly detection.

Synchronization in Random Pulse Oscillator Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kevin; Hermundstad, Ann

Motivated by synchronization phenomena in neural systems, we study synchronization of random networks of coupled pulse oscillators. We begin by considering binomial random networks whose nodes have intrinsic linear dynamics. We quantify order in the network spiking dynamics using a new measure: the normalized Lev-Zimpel complexity (LZC) of the nodes' spike trains. Starting from a globally-synchronized state, we see two broad classes of behaviors. In one (''temporally random''), the LZC is high and nodes spike independently with no coherent pattern. In another (''temporally regular''), the network does not globally synchronize but instead forms coherent, repeating population firing patterns with low LZC. No topological feature of the network reliably predicts whether an individual network will show temporally random or regular behavior; however, we find evidence that degree heterogeneity in binomial networks has a strong effect on the resulting state. To confirm these findings, we generate random networks with independently-adjustable degree mean and variance. We find that the likelihood of temporally-random behavior increases as degree variance increases. Our results indicate the subtle and complex relationship between network structure and dynamics.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti in different districts of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, measured by two types of traps.

PubMed

Honório, N A; Codeço, C T; Alves, F C; Magalhães, M A F M; Lourenço-De-Oliveira, R

2009-09-01

Dengue dynamics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as in many dengue-endemic regions of the world, is seasonal, with peaks during the wet-hot months. This temporal pattern is generally attributed to the dynamics of its mosquito vector Aedes aegypti (L.). The objectives of this study were to characterize the temporal pattern of Ae. aegypti population dynamics in three neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro and its association with local meteorological variables; and to compare positivity and density indices obtained with ovitraps and MosquiTraps. The three neighborhoods are distinct in vegetation coverage, sanitation, water supply, and urbanization. Mosquito sampling was carried out weekly, from September 2006 to March 2008, a period during which large dengue epidemics occurred in the city. Our results show peaks of oviposition in early summer 2007 and late summer 2008, detected by both traps. The ovitrap provided a more sensitive index than MosquiTrap. The MosquiTrap detection threshold showed high variation among areas, corresponding to a mean egg density of approximately 25-52 eggs per ovitrap. Both temperature and rainfall were significantly related to Ae. aegypti indices at a short (1 wk) time lag. Our results suggest that mean weekly temperature above 22-24 degrees C is strongly associated with high Ae. aegypti abundance and consequently with an increased risk of dengue transmission. Understanding the effects of meteorological variables on Ae. aegypti population dynamics will help to target control measures at the times when vector populations are greatest, contributing to the development of climate-based control and surveillance measures for dengue fever in a hyperendemic area.

High temporal resolution aberrometry in a 50-eye population and implications for adaptive optics error budget.

PubMed

Jarosz, Jessica; Mecê, Pedro; Conan, Jean-Marc; Petit, Cyril; Paques, Michel; Meimon, Serge

2017-04-01

We formed a database gathering the wavefront aberrations of 50 healthy eyes measured with an original custom-built Shack-Hartmann aberrometer at a temporal frequency of 236 Hz, with 22 lenslets across a 7-mm diameter pupil, for a duration of 20 s. With this database, we draw statistics on the spatial and temporal behavior of the dynamic aberrations of the eye. Dynamic aberrations were studied on a 5-mm diameter pupil and on a 3.4 s sequence between blinks. We noted that, on average, temporal wavefront variance exhibits a n -2 power-law with radial order n and temporal spectra follow a f -1.5 power-law with temporal frequency f . From these statistics, we then extract guidelines for designing an adaptive optics system. For instance, we show the residual wavefront error evolution as a function of the number of corrected modes and of the adaptive optics loop frame rate. In particular, we infer that adaptive optics performance rapidly increases with the loop frequency up to 50 Hz, with gain being more limited at higher rates.

High temporal resolution aberrometry in a 50-eye population and implications for adaptive optics error budget

PubMed Central

Jarosz, Jessica; Mecê, Pedro; Conan, Jean-Marc; Petit, Cyril; Paques, Michel; Meimon, Serge

2017-01-01

We formed a database gathering the wavefront aberrations of 50 healthy eyes measured with an original custom-built Shack-Hartmann aberrometer at a temporal frequency of 236 Hz, with 22 lenslets across a 7-mm diameter pupil, for a duration of 20 s. With this database, we draw statistics on the spatial and temporal behavior of the dynamic aberrations of the eye. Dynamic aberrations were studied on a 5-mm diameter pupil and on a 3.4 s sequence between blinks. We noted that, on average, temporal wavefront variance exhibits a n−2 power-law with radial order n and temporal spectra follow a f−1.5 power-law with temporal frequency f. From these statistics, we then extract guidelines for designing an adaptive optics system. For instance, we show the residual wavefront error evolution as a function of the number of corrected modes and of the adaptive optics loop frame rate. In particular, we infer that adaptive optics performance rapidly increases with the loop frequency up to 50 Hz, with gain being more limited at higher rates. PMID:28736657

Smart Meter Driven Segmentation: What Your Consumption Says About You

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albert, A; Rajagopal, R

With the rollout of smart metering infrastructure at scale, demand-response (DR) programs may now be tailored based on users' consumption patterns as mined from sensed data. For issuing DR events it is key to understand the inter-temporal consumption dynamics as to appropriately segment the user population. We propose to infer occupancy states from consumption time series data using a hidden Markov model framework. Occupancy is characterized in this model by 1) magnitude, 2) duration, and 3) variability. We show that users may be grouped according to their consumption patterns into groups that exhibit qualitatively different dynamics that may be exploitedmore » for program enrollment purposes. We investigate empirically the information that residential energy consumers' temporal energy demand patterns characterized by these three dimensions may convey about their demographic, household, and appliance stock characteristics. Our analysis shows that temporal patterns in the user's consumption data can predict with good accuracy certain user characteristics. We use this framework to argue that there is a large degree of individual predictability in user consumption at a population level.« less

Analysis of brain patterns using temporal measures

DOEpatents

Georgopoulos, Apostolos

2015-08-11

A set of brain data representing a time series of neurophysiologic activity acquired by spatially distributed sensors arranged to detect neural signaling of a brain (such as by the use of magnetoencephalography) is obtained. The set of brain data is processed to obtain a dynamic brain model based on a set of statistically-independent temporal measures, such as partial cross correlations, among groupings of different time series within the set of brain data. The dynamic brain model represents interactions between neural populations of the brain occurring close in time, such as with zero lag, for example. The dynamic brain model can be analyzed to obtain the neurophysiologic assessment of the brain. Data processing techniques may be used to assess structural or neurochemical brain pathologies.

Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, H D; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Ricca, Mark; Duarte, Adam

2015-01-01

Interactions between large herbivores and their food supply are central to the study of population dynamics. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in meadow plant biomass over a 23-year period for meadow complexes that were spatially linked to three distinct populations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) in northwestern California. Our objectives were to determine whether the plant community exhibited a tolerant or resistant response when elk population growth became irruptive. Plant biomass for the three meadow complexes inhabited by the elk populations was measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery. Elk populations exhibited different patterns of growth through the time series, whereby one population underwent a complete four-stage irruptive growth pattern while the other two did not. Temporal changes in NDVI for the meadow complex used by the irruptive population suggested a decline in forage biomass during the end of the dry season and a temporal decline in spatial variation of NDVI at the peak of plant biomass in May. Conversely, no such patterns were detected in the meadow complexes inhabited by the nonirruptive populations. Our findings suggest that the meadow complex used by the irruptive elk population may have undergone changes in plant community composition favoring plants that were resistant to elk grazing.

An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.

2012-01-01

A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

PubMed Central

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, Peter E.; Billerman, Shawn M.; Jesmer, Brett R.; Micheletti, Steven; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Funk, W. Chris; Hapeman, Paul; Muths, Erin; Murphy, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations. PMID:26442094

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Alexander G.; Schlichting, P; Billerman, S; Jesmer, B; Micheletti, S; Fortin, M.-J.; Funk, W.C.; Hapeman, P; Muths, Erin L.; Murphy, M.A.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Stochastic environmental fluctuations drive epidemiology in experimental host–parasite metapopulations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Kaltz, Oliver

2013-01-01

Environmental fluctuations are important for parasite spread and persistence. However, the effects of the spatial and temporal structure of environmental fluctuations on host–parasite dynamics are not well understood. Temporal fluctuations can be random but positively autocorrelated, such that the environment is similar to the recent past (red noise), or random and uncorrelated with the past (white noise). We imposed red or white temporal temperature fluctuations on experimental metapopulations of Paramecium caudatum, experiencing an epidemic of the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Metapopulations (two subpopulations linked by migration) experienced fluctuations between stressful (5°C) and permissive (23°C) conditions following red or white temporal sequences. Spatial variation in temperature fluctuations was implemented by exposing subpopulations to the same (synchronous temperatures) or different (asynchronous temperatures) temporal sequences. Red noise, compared with white noise, enhanced parasite persistence. Despite this, red noise coupled with asynchronous temperatures allowed infected host populations to maintain sizes equivalent to uninfected populations. It is likely that this occurs because subpopulations in permissive conditions rescue declining subpopulations in stressful conditions. We show how patterns of temporal and spatial environmental fluctuations can impact parasite spread and host population abundance. We conclude that accurate prediction of parasite epidemics may require realistic models of environmental noise. PMID:23966645

77 FR 35431 - Notice of Permit Applications Received Under the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-541)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-13

...-007, Ecology Department, Montana State University, 310 Lewis Hall, Bozeman, MT 59715. Activity for... heterogeneity in life-history tactics of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. A breeding population of... evaluate how temporal variation in the marine environment affects a long-lived mammal's population dynamics...

Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh.

PubMed

Adams, Helen; Adger, W Neil; Ahmad, Sate; Ahmed, Ali; Begum, Dilruba; Lázár, Attila N; Matthews, Zoe; Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2016-11-08

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women's empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Adams, Helen; Adger, W. Neil; Ahmad, Sate; Ahmed, Ali; Begum, Dilruba; Lázár, Attila N.; Matthews, Zoe; Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2016-01-01

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women’s empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries. PMID:27824340

Optical dissection of odor information processing in vivo using GCaMPs expressed in specified cell types of the olfactory bulb

PubMed Central

Wachowiak, Matt; Economo, Michael N.; Díaz-Quesada, Marta; Brunert, Daniela; Wesson, Daniel W.; White, John. A.; Rothermel, Markus

2013-01-01

Understanding central processing requires precise monitoring of neural activity across populations of identified neurons in the intact brain. Here we used recently-optimized variants of the genetically-encoded calcium sensor GCaMP (GCaMP3 and GCaMPG5G) to image activity among genetically- and anatomically-defined neuronal populations in the olfactory bulb (OB), including two types of GABA-ergic interneurons (periglomerular (PG) and short axon (SA) cells) and OB output neurons (mitral/tufted (MT) cells) projecting to piriform cortex. We first established that changes in neuronal spiking can be accurately related to GCaMP fluorescence changes via a simple quantitative relationship over a large dynamic range. We next used in vivo two-photon imaging from individual neurons and epifluorescence signals reflecting population-level activity to investigate the spatiotemporal representation of odorants across these neuron types in anesthetized and awake mice. Under anesthesia, individual PG and SA cells showed temporally simple responses and little spontaneous activity, while MT cells were spontaneously active and showed diverse temporal responses. At the population level, response patterns of PG, SA and MT cells were surprisingly similar to those imaged from sensory inputs, with shared odorant-specific topography across the dorsal OB and inhalation-coupled temporal dynamics. During wakefulness, PG and SA cell responses increased in magnitude but remained temporally simple while those of MT cells changed to complex spatiotemporal patterns reflecting restricted excitation and widespread inhibition. These results point to multiple circuit elements with distinct roles in transforming odor representations in the OB and provide a framework for further dissecting early olfactory processing using optical and genetic tools. PMID:23516293

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

PubMed

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Population Responses to Environmental Change in a Tropical Ant: The Interaction of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics

PubMed Central

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M.

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants’ dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution – a signal of spatial self organization – but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations. PMID:24842117

Long-term dynamics of winter and summer annual communities in the Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Brown, J.H.; Valone, T.J.

2002-01-01

Using 15 years of census data from permanent quadrats, this paper compared the characteristics and temporal dynamics of these two distinct, spatially coexistent but temporally segregated communities. Although the total number of summer annual species recorded during our 15 years observation was higher than winter annuals, the average number of species observed each year was higher in the winter community. The winter community exhibited lower temporal variation in total plant abundance and populations of individual species, lower species turnover rate and higher evenness than the summer community. The higher seasonal species diversity (i.e., number of species observed in each season) in winters rather than the overall special pool (over 15 yrs) may be responsible for the greater community stability of winter annuals. The difference in long-term community dynamics between the two communities of annuals plants are likely due to the differences in total species pool, life history traits (e.g., seed size), and seasonal climatic regimes.

[Interdependence of plankton spatial distribution and plancton biomass temporal oscillations: mathematical simulation].

PubMed

Medvedinskiĭ, A B; Tikhonova, I A; Li, B L; Malchow, H

2003-01-01

The dynamics of aquatic biological communities in a patchy environment is of great interest in respect to interrelations between phenomena at various spatial and time scales. To study the complex plankton dynamics in relation to variations of such a biologically essential parameter as the fish predation rate, we use a simple reaction-diffusion model of trophic interactions between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish. We suggest that plankton is distributed between two habitats one of which is fish-free due to hydrological inhomogeneity, while the other is fish-populated. We show that temporal variations in the fish predation rate do not violate the strong correspondence between the character of spatial distribution of plankton and changes of plankton biomass in time: regular temporal oscillations of plankton biomass correspond to large-scale plankton patches, while chaotic oscillations correspond to small-scale plankton patterns. As in the case of the constant fish predation rate, the chaotic plankton dynamics is characterized by coexistence of the chaotic attractor and limit cycle.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Pacific Oyster Hemolymph Microbiota across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Lokmer, Ana; Goedknegt, M. Anouk; Thieltges, David W.; Fiorentino, Dario; Kuenzel, Sven; Baines, John F.; Wegner, K. Mathias

2016-01-01

Unveiling the factors and processes that shape the dynamics of host associated microbial communities (microbiota) under natural conditions is an important part of understanding and predicting an organism's response to a changing environment. The microbiota is shaped by host (i.e., genetic) factors as well as by the biotic and abiotic environment. Studying natural variation of microbial community composition in multiple host genetic backgrounds across spatial as well as temporal scales represents a means to untangle this complex interplay. Here, we combined a spatially-stratified with a longitudinal sampling scheme within differentiated host genetic backgrounds by reciprocally transplanting Pacific oysters between two sites in the Wadden Sea (Sylt and Texel). To further differentiate contingent site from host genetic effects, we repeatedly sampled the same individuals over a summer season to examine structure, diversity and dynamics of individual hemolymph microbiota following experimental removal of resident microbiota by antibiotic treatment. While a large proportion of microbiome variation could be attributed to immediate environmental conditions, we observed persistent effects of antibiotic treatment and translocation suggesting that hemolymph microbial community dynamics is subject to within-microbiome interactions and host population specific factors. In addition, the analysis of spatial variation revealed that the within-site microenvironmental heterogeneity resulted in high small-scale variability, as opposed to large-scale (between-site) stability. Similarly, considerable within-individual temporal variability was in contrast with the overall temporal stability at the site level. Overall, our longitudinal, spatially-stratified sampling design revealed that variation in hemolymph microbiota is strongly influenced by site and immediate environmental conditions, whereas internal microbiome dynamics and oyster-related factors add to their long-term stability. The combination of small and large scale resolution of spatial and temporal observations therefore represents a crucial but underused tool to study host-associated microbiome dynamics. PMID:27630625

Spatio-temporal genetic variation of the biting midge vector species Culicoides imicola (Ceratopogonidae) Kieffer in France.

PubMed

Jacquet, Stéphanie; Huber, Karine; Guis, Hélène; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Goffredo, Maria; Allène, Xavier; Rakotoarivony, Ignace; Chevillon, Christine; Bouyer, Jérémy; Baldet, Thierry; Balenghien, Thomas; Garros, Claire

2016-03-11

Introduction of vector species into new areas represents a main driver for the emergence and worldwide spread of vector-borne diseases. This poses a substantial threat to livestock economies and public health. Culicoides imicola Kieffer, a major vector species of economically important animal viruses, is described with an apparent range expansion in Europe where it has been recorded in south-eastern continental France, its known northern distribution edge. This questioned on further C. imicola population extension and establishment into new territories. Studying the spatio-temporal genetic variation of expanding populations can provide valuable information for the design of reliable models of future spread. Entomological surveys and population genetic approaches were used to assess the spatio-temporal population dynamics of C. imicola in France. Entomological surveys (2-3 consecutive years) were used to evaluate population abundances and local spread in continental France (28 sites in the Var department) and in Corsica (4 sites). We also genotyped at nine microsatellite loci insects from 3 locations in the Var department over 3 years (2008, 2010 and 2012) and from 6 locations in Corsica over 4 years (2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012). Entomological surveys confirmed the establishment of C. imicola populations in Var department, but indicated low abundances and no apparent expansion there within the studied period. Higher population abundances were recorded in Corsica. Our genetic data suggested the absence of spatio-temporal genetic changes within each region but a significant increase of the genetic differentiation between Corsican and Var populations through time. The lack of intra-region population structure may result from strong gene flow among populations. We discussed the observed temporal variation between Corsica and Var as being the result of genetic drift following introduction, and/or the genetic characteristics of populations at their range edge. Our results suggest that local range expansion of C. imicola in continental France may be slowed by the low population abundances and unsuitable climatic and environmental conditions.

Bacterial predator–prey dynamics in microscale patchy landscapes

PubMed Central

Rotem, Or; Jurkevitch, Edouard; Dekker, Cees

2016-01-01

Soil is a microenvironment with a fragmented (patchy) spatial structure in which many bacterial species interact. Here, we explore the interaction between the predatory bacterium Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus and its prey Escherichia coli in microfabricated landscapes. We ask how fragmentation influences the prey dynamics at the microscale and compare two landscape geometries: a patchy landscape and a continuous landscape. By following the dynamics of prey populations with high spatial and temporal resolution for many generations, we found that the variation in predation rates was twice as large in the patchy landscape and the dynamics was correlated over shorter length scales. We also found that while the prey population in the continuous landscape was almost entirely driven to extinction, a significant part of the prey population in the fragmented landscape persisted over time. We observed significant surface-associated growth, especially in the fragmented landscape and we surmise that this sub-population is more resistant to predation. Our results thus show that microscale fragmentation can significantly influence bacterial interactions. PMID:26865299

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2012-01-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process...

Machine Vision Within The Framework Of Collective Neural Assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Madan M.; Knopf, George K.

1990-03-01

The proposed mechanism for designing a robust machine vision system is based on the dynamic activity generated by the various neural populations embedded in nervous tissue. It is postulated that a hierarchy of anatomically distinct tissue regions are involved in visual sensory information processing. Each region may be represented as a planar sheet of densely interconnected neural circuits. Spatially localized aggregates of these circuits represent collective neural assemblies. Four dynamically coupled neural populations are assumed to exist within each assembly. In this paper we present a state-variable model for a tissue sheet derived from empirical studies of population dynamics. Each population is modelled as a nonlinear second-order system. It is possible to emulate certain observed physiological and psychophysiological phenomena of biological vision by properly programming the interconnective gains . Important early visual phenomena such as temporal and spatial noise insensitivity, contrast sensitivity and edge enhancement will be discussed for a one-dimensional tissue model.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

2016-06-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

Complex Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystem with Nonlinear Harvesting: Application to Chilika Lake in Odisha, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Tiwari, S. K.; Roy, Parimita

2015-06-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial and temporal dynamical interactions among the species of wetland ecosystem through a mathematical model. The model represents the population dynamics of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish species found in Chilika lake, Odisha, India. Nonlinear stability analysis of both the temporal and spatial models has been carried out. Maximum sustainable yield and optimal harvesting policy have been studied for a nonspatial model system. Numerical simulation has been performed to figure out the parameters responsible for the complex dynamics of the wetland system. Significant outcomes of our numerical findings and their interpretations from an ecological point of view are provided in this paper. Numerical simulation of spatial model exhibits some interesting and beautiful patterns. We have also pointed out the parameters that are responsible for the good health of wetland ecosystem.

Temporal scaling in information propagation.

PubMed

Huang, Junming; Li, Chao; Wang, Wen-Qiang; Shen, Hua-Wei; Li, Guojie; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-06-18

For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7% to 2.6% and improving viral marketing with 9.7% incremental customers.

Temporal scaling in information propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Junming; Li, Chao; Wang, Wen-Qiang; Shen, Hua-Wei; Li, Guojie; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-06-01

For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7% to 2.6% and improving viral marketing with 9.7% incremental customers.

Disease Spread and Its Effect on Population Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model in which both species diffuse along a spatial gradient has been shown to exhibit temporal chaos at a fixed point in space. The proposed model is a modification of the model recently presented by Upadhyay and Roy [2014]. The spatial interactions among the species have been represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. The model incorporates the intrinsic growth rate of fish population which varies linearly with the depth of water. Numerical results show that diffusion can drive otherwise stable system into aperiodic behavior with sensitivity to initial conditions. We show that spatially induced chaos plays an important role in spatial pattern formation in heterogeneous environment. Spatiotemporal distributions of species have been simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural eco-epidemic systems. We found that in heterogeneous environment, the temporal dynamics of both the species are drastically different and show chaotic behavior. It was also found that the instability observed in the model is due to spatial heterogeneity and diffusion-driven. Cumulative death rate of predator has an appreciable effect on model dynamics as the spatial distribution of all constituent populations exhibit significant changes when this model parameter is changed and it acts as a regularizing factor.

The influence of lexical statistics on temporal lobe cortical dynamics during spoken word listening

PubMed Central

Cibelli, Emily S.; Leonard, Matthew K.; Johnson, Keith; Chang, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Neural representations of words are thought to have a complex spatio-temporal cortical basis. It has been suggested that spoken word recognition is not a process of feed-forward computations from phonetic to lexical forms, but rather involves the online integration of bottom-up input with stored lexical knowledge. Using direct neural recordings from the temporal lobe, we examined cortical responses to words and pseudowords. We found that neural populations were not only sensitive to lexical status (real vs. pseudo), but also to cohort size (number of words matching the phonetic input at each time point) and cohort frequency (lexical frequency of those words). These lexical variables modulated neural activity from the posterior to anterior temporal lobe, and also dynamically as the stimuli unfolded on a millisecond time scale. Our findings indicate that word recognition is not purely modular, but relies on rapid and online integration of multiple sources of lexical knowledge. PMID:26072003

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

2006-01-01

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

Spatiotemporal distribution of Holocene populations in North America

PubMed Central

Chaput, Michelle A.; Kriesche, Björn; Betts, Matthew; Martindale, Andrew; Kulik, Rafal; Schmidt, Volker; Gajewski, Konrad

2015-01-01

As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 14C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of 14C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem. PMID:26351683

Stabilizing effects in temporal fluctuations: management, traits, and species richness in high-diversity communities.

PubMed

Lepš, Jan; Májeková, Maria; Vítová, Alena; Doležal, Jiří; de Bello, Francesco

2018-02-01

The loss of biodiversity is thought to have adverse effects on multiple ecosystem functions, including the decline of community stability. Decreased diversity reduces the strength of the portfolio effect, a mechanism stabilizing community temporal fluctuations. Community stability is also expected to decrease with greater variability in individual species populations and with synchrony of their fluctuations. In semi-natural meadows, eutrophication is one of the most important drivers of diversity decline; it is expected to increase species fluctuations and synchrony among them, all effects leading to lower community stability. With a 16-year time series of biomass data from a temperate species-rich meadow with fertilization and removal of the dominant species, we assessed population biomass temporal (co)variation under different management types and competition intensity, and in relation to species functional traits and to species diversity. Whereas the effect of dominant removal was relatively small (with a tendency toward lower stability), fertilization markedly decreased community stability (i.e., increased coefficient of variation in the total biomass) and species diversity. On average, the fluctuations of individual populations were mutually independent, with a slight tendency toward synchrony in unfertilized plots, and a tendency toward compensatory dynamics in fertilized plots and no effects of removal. The marked decrease of synchrony with fertilization, contrary to the majority of the results reported previously, follows the predictions of increased compensatory dynamics with increased asymmetric competition for light in a more productive environment. Synchrony increased also with species functional similarity stressing the importance of shared ecological strategies in driving similar species responses to weather fluctuations. As expected, the decrease of temporal stability of total biomass was mainly related to the decrease of species richness, with its effect remaining significant also after accounting for fertilization. The weakening of the portfolio effect with species richness decline is a crucial driver of community destabilization. However, the positive effect of species richness on temporal stability of total biomass was not due to increased compensatory dynamics, since synchrony increased with species richness. This shows that the negative effect of eutrophication on community stability does not operate through increasing synchrony, but through the reduction of diversity. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Schroeder, Barbara A.; Foley, Allen M.; Witherington, Blair E.; Bresette, Michael; Clark, David; Herren, Richard M.; Arendt, Michael D.; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Provancha, Jane A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Bolten, Alan B.

2013-01-01

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics and Synchronized Oscillations of Microbial Populations, Carbon and Oxygen Concentrations, Induced by Root Exudation in the Rhizosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molz, F. J.; Faybishenko, B.; Jenkins, E. W.

2012-12-01

Mass and energy fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum are highly coupled and inherently nonlinear. The main focus of this presentation is to demonstrate the results of numerical modeling of a system of 4 coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are used to describe the long-term, rhizosphere processes of soil microbial dynamics, including the competition between nitrogen-fixing bacteria and those unable to fix nitrogen, along with substrate concentration (nutrient supply) and oxygen concentration. Modeling results demonstrate the synchronized patterns of temporal oscillations of competing microbial populations, which are affected by carbon and oxygen concentrations. The temporal dynamics and amplitude of the root exudation process serve as a driving force for microbial and geochemical phenomena, and lead to the development of the Gompetzian dynamics, synchronized oscillations, and phase-space attractors of microbial populations and carbon and oxygen concentrations. The nonlinear dynamic analysis of time series concentrations from the solution of the ODEs was used to identify several types of phase-space attractors, which appear to be dependent on the parameters of the exudation function and Monod kinetic parameters. This phase space analysis was conducted by means of assessing the global and local embedding dimensions, correlation time, capacity and correlation dimensions, and Lyapunov exponents of the calculated model variables defining the phase space. Such results can be used for planning experimental and theoretical studies of biogeochemical processes in the fields of plant nutrition, phyto- and bio-remediation, and other ecological areas.

Nonlinear Socio-Ecological Dynamics and First Principles ofCollective Choice Behavior of ``Homo Socialis"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonis, M.

Socio-ecological dynamics emerged from the field of Mathematical SocialSciences and opened up avenues for re-examination of classical problems of collective behavior in Social and Spatial sciences. The ``engine" of this collective behavior is the subjective mental evaluation of level of utilities in the future, presenting sets of composite socio-economic-temporal-locational advantages. These dynamics present new laws of collective multi-population behavior which are the meso-level counterparts of the utility optimization individual behavior. The central core of the socio-ecological choice dynamics includes the following first principle of the collective choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" based on the existence of ``collective consciousness": the choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" is a collective meso-level choice behavior such that the relative changes in choice frequencies depend on the distribution of innovation alternatives between adopters of innovations. The mathematical basis of the Socio-Ecological Dynamics includes two complementary analytical approaches both based on the use of computer modeling as a theoretical and simulation tool. First approach is the ``continuous approach" --- the systems of ordinary and partial differential equations reflecting the continuous time Volterra ecological formalism in a form of antagonistic and/or cooperative collective hyper-games between different sub-sets of choice alternatives. Second approach is the ``discrete approach" --- systems of difference equations presenting a new branch of the non-linear discrete dynamics --- the Discrete Relative m-population/n-innovations Socio-Spatial Dynamics (Dendrinos and Sonis, 1990). The generalization of the Volterra formalism leads further to the meso-level variational principle of collective choice behavior determining the balance between the resulting cumulative social spatio-temporal interactions among the population of adopters susceptible to the choice alternatives and the cumulative equalization of the power of elites supporting different choice alternatives. This balance governs the dynamic innovation choice process and constitutes the dynamic meso-level counterpart of the micro-economic individual utility maximization principle.

RELATIONSHIPS OF NATURAL ENEMIES AND NON-PREY FOODS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There are very few entomophagous species so maladapted as to rely on prey as their sole nutritional resource. Although a rich source of nutrients, prey/host availability to predators and parasitoids is restricted temporally by ephemeral population dynamics, spatial differences in microclimate, struc...

Comparative biology and population mixing among local, coastal and offshore Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic

PubMed Central

Slotte, Aril; Johannessen, Arne; Kvamme, Cecilie; Clausen, Lotte Worsøe; Nash, Richard D. M.

2017-01-01

The population structure of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from 13 local, coastal and offshore areas of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic (northeast Atlantic) was studied using biological and environmental data from 1970–2015. The objective was to identify distinct populations by comparing variability in the temporal and spatial phenotypic characteristics and evaluate the potential for mixing of populations in time and space. The populations varied in biological characteristics such as mean vertebral counts (VS), growth and maturity ogives. Generalized additive models indicated temporally stable VS in the North Sea and western Baltic, whereas intra-annual temporal variation of VS occurred in other areas. High variability of VS within a population was not affected by environmental factors such as temperature and salinity. Consequently, seasonal VS variability can be explained by the presence or absence of herring populations as they migrate between areas. The three main populations identified in this paper correspond to the three managed stocks in this area: Norwegian spring spawners (NSS), western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) and North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS). In addition, several local populations were identified in fjords or lakes along the coast, but our analyses could not detect direct mixing of local populations with the three main populations. Our results highlight the importance of recognizing herring dynamics and understanding the mixing of populations as a challenge for management of herring. PMID:29084258

Brain dynamics in ASD during movie-watching show idiosyncratic functional integration and segregation.

PubMed

Bolton, Thomas A W; Jochaut, Delphine; Giraud, Anne-Lise; Van De Ville, Dimitri

2018-06-01

To refine our understanding of autism spectrum disorders (ASD), studies of the brain in dynamic, multimodal and ecological experimental settings are required. One way to achieve this is to compare the neural responses of ASD and typically developing (TD) individuals when viewing a naturalistic movie, but the temporal complexity of the stimulus hampers this task, and the presence of intrinsic functional connectivity (FC) may overshadow movie-driven fluctuations. Here, we detected inter-subject functional correlation (ISFC) transients to disentangle movie-induced functional changes from underlying resting-state activity while probing FC dynamically. When considering the number of significant ISFC excursions triggered by the movie across the brain, connections between remote functional modules were more heterogeneously engaged in the ASD population. Dynamically tracking the temporal profiles of those ISFC changes and tying them to specific movie subparts, this idiosyncrasy in ASD responses was then shown to involve functional integration and segregation mechanisms such as response inhibition, background suppression, or multisensory integration, while low-level visual processing was spared. Through the application of a new framework for the study of dynamic experimental paradigms, our results reveal a temporally localized idiosyncrasy in ASD responses, specific to short-lived episodes of long-range functional interplays. © 2018 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Multi-scale temporal and spatial variation in genotypic composition of Cladophora-borne Escherichia coli populations in Lake Michigan.

PubMed

Badgley, Brian D; Ferguson, John; Vanden Heuvel, Amy; Kleinheinz, Gregory T; McDermott, Colleen M; Sandrin, Todd R; Kinzelman, Julie; Junion, Emily A; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N; Whitman, Richard L; Sadowsky, Michael J

2011-01-01

High concentrations of Escherichia coli in mats of Cladophora in the Great Lakes have raised concern over the continued use of this bacterium as an indicator of microbial water quality. Determining the impacts of these environmentally abundant E. coli, however, necessitates a better understanding of their ecology. In this study, the population structure of 4285 Cladophora-borne E. coli isolates, obtained over multiple three day periods from Lake Michigan Cladophora mats in 2007-2009, was examined by using DNA fingerprint analyses. In contrast to previous studies that have been done using isolates from attached Cladophora obtained over large time scales and distances, the extensive sampling done here on free-floating mats over successive days at multiple sites provided a large dataset that allowed for a detailed examination of changes in population structure over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. While Cladophora-borne E. coli populations were highly diverse and consisted of many unique isolates, multiple clonal groups were also present and accounted for approximately 33% of all isolates examined. Patterns in population structure were also evident. At the broadest scales, E. coli populations showed some temporal clustering when examined by year, but did not show good spatial distinction among sites. E. coli population structure also showed significant patterns at much finer temporal scales. Populations were distinct on an individual mat basis at a given site, and on individual days within a single mat. Results of these studies indicate that Cladophora-borne E. coli populations consist of a mixture of stable, and possibly naturalized, strains that persist during the life of the mat, and more unique, transient strains that can change over rapid time scales. It is clear that further study of microbial processes at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed, and that caution must be taken when interpolating short term microbial dynamics from results obtained from weekly or monthly samples. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale temporal and spatial variation in genotypic composition of Cladophora-borne Escherichia coli populations in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Badgley, B.D.; Ferguson, J.; Heuvel, A.V.; Kleinheinz, G.T.; McDermott, C.M.; Sandrin, T.R.; Kinzelman, J.; Junion, E.A.; Byappanahalli, M.N.; Whitman, R.L.; Sadowsky, M.J.

2011-01-01

High concentrations of Escherichia coli in mats of Cladophora in the Great Lakes have raised concern over the continued use of this bacterium as an indicator of microbial water quality. Determining the impacts of these environmentally abundant E. coli, however, necessitates a better understanding of their ecology. In this study, the population structure of 4285 Cladophora-borne E. coli isolates, obtained over multiple three day periods from Lake Michigan Cladophora mats in 2007-2009, was examined by using DNA fingerprint analyses. In contrast to previous studies that have been done using isolates from attached Cladophora obtained over large time scales and distances, the extensive sampling done here on free-floating mats over successive days at multiple sites provided a large dataset that allowed for a detailed examination of changes in population structure over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. While Cladophora-borne E. coli populations were highly diverse and consisted of many unique isolates, multiple clonal groups were also present and accounted for approximately 33% of all isolates examined. Patterns in population structure were also evident. At the broadest scales, E. coli populations showed some temporal clustering when examined by year, but did not show good spatial distinction among sites. E. coli population structure also showed significant patterns at much finer temporal scales. Populations were distinct on an individual mat basis at a given site, and on individual days within a single mat. Results of these studies indicate that Cladophora-borne E. coli populations consist of a mixture of stable, and possibly naturalized, strains that persist during the life of the mat, and more unique, transient strains that can change over rapid time scales. It is clear that further study of microbial processes at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed, and that caution must be taken when interpolating short term microbial dynamics from results obtained from weekly or monthly samples.

Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

PubMed Central

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441

Applying spatio-temporal models to assess variations across health care areas and regions: Lessons from the decentralized Spanish National Health System.

PubMed

Librero, Julián; Ibañez, Berta; Martínez-Lizaga, Natalia; Peiró, Salvador; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2017-01-01

To illustrate the ability of hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models in capturing different geo-temporal structures in order to explain hospital risk variations using three different conditions: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), Colectomy in Colorectal Cancer (CCC) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This is an observational population-based spatio-temporal study, from 2002 to 2013, with a two-level geographical structure, Autonomous Communities (AC) and Health Care Areas (HA). The Spanish National Health System, a quasi-federal structure with 17 regional governments (AC) with full responsibility in planning and financing, and 203 HA providing hospital and primary care to a defined population. A poisson-log normal mixed model in the Bayesian framework was fitted using the INLA efficient estimation procedure. The spatio-temporal hospitalization relative risks, the evolution of their variation, and the relative contribution (fraction of variation) of each of the model components (AC, HA, year and interaction AC-year). Following PCI-CCC-CODP order, the three conditions show differences in the initial hospitalization rates (from 4 to 21 per 10,000 person-years) and in their trends (upward, inverted V shape, downward). Most of the risk variation is captured by phenomena occurring at the HA level (fraction variance: 51.6, 54.7 and 56.9%). At AC level, the risk of PCI hospitalization follow a heterogeneous ascending dynamic (interaction AC-year: 17.7%), whereas in COPD the AC role is more homogenous and important (37%). In a system where the decisions loci are differentiated, the spatio-temporal modeling allows to assess the dynamic relative role of different levels of decision and their influence on health outcomes.

Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrichsen, D. K.

2011-12-01

Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography, 23: 437-443 Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ and Grenfell BT. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292: 1528-1531 Post, E and Stenseth NC. 1999. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology, 80: 1322-1339 Post E, Pedersen C, Wilmers CC and Forchhammer MC. 2008. Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores. Proc. Roy Soc. B., 275: 2005-2013 Tyler NJC, Forchhammer MC and Øritsland NA. 2008. Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer. Ecology, 89: 1675-1686

Insights into the bacterial community and its temporal succession during the fermentation of wine grapes

PubMed Central

Piao, Hailan; Hawley, Erik; Kopf, Scott; DeScenzo, Richard; Sealock, Steven; Henick-Kling, Thomas; Hess, Matthias

2015-01-01

Grapes harbor complex microbial communities. It is well known that yeasts, typically Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and bacteria, commonly the lactic acid fermenting Oenococcus oeni, work sequentially during primary and secondary wine fermentation. In addition to these main players, several microbes, often with undesirable effects on wine quality, have been found in grapes and during wine fermentation. However, still little is known about the dynamics of the microbial community during the fermentation process. In previous studies culture dependent methods were applied to detect and identify microbial organisms associated with grapes and grape products, which resulted in a picture that neglected the non-culturable fraction of the microbes. To obtain a more complete picture of how microbial communities change during grape fermentation and how different fermentation techniques might affect the microbial community composition, we employed next-generation sequencing (NGS)—a culture-independent method. A better understanding of the microbial dynamics and their effect on the final product is of great importance to help winemakers produce wine styles of consistent and high quality. In this study, we focused on the bacterial community dynamics during wine vinification by amplifying and sequencing the hypervariable V1–V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene—a phylogenetic marker gene that is ubiquitous within prokaryotes. Bacterial communities and their temporal succession was observed for communities associated with organically and conventionally produced wines. In addition, we analyzed the chemical characteristics of the grape musts during the organic and conventional fermentation process. These analyses revealed distinct bacterial population with specific temporal changes as well as different chemical profiles for the organically and conventionally produced wines. In summary these results suggest a possible correlation between the temporal succession of the bacterial population and the chemical wine profiles. PMID:26347718

Evolutionary game theory: Temporal and spatial effects beyond replicator dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roca, Carlos P.; Cuesta, José A.; Sánchez, Angel

2009-12-01

Evolutionary game dynamics is one of the most fruitful frameworks for studying evolution in different disciplines, from Biology to Economics. Within this context, the approach of choice for many researchers is the so-called replicator equation, that describes mathematically the idea that those individuals performing better have more offspring and thus their frequency in the population grows. While very many interesting results have been obtained with this equation in the three decades elapsed since it was first proposed, it is important to realize the limits of its applicability. One particularly relevant issue in this respect is that of non-mean-field effects, that may arise from temporal fluctuations or from spatial correlations, both neglected in the replicator equation. This review discusses these temporal and spatial effects focusing on the non-trivial modifications they induce when compared to the outcome of replicator dynamics. Alongside this question, the hypothesis of linearity and its relation to the choice of the rule for strategy update is also analyzed. The discussion is presented in terms of the emergence of cooperation, as one of the current key problems in Biology and in other disciplines.

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Four Northern Gulf of Mexico Estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

Eutrophication of coastal ecosystems has accelerated in recent decades due to population growth and associated nutrient pollution, resulting in increased incidence of hypoxia. Shallow and highly productive estuaries and embayments are particularly susceptible to diel-cycling hypo...

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness

PubMed Central

Saracco, James F.; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades. PMID:26863013

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

PubMed

Saracco, James F; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities.

PubMed

Xiao, Yandong; Angulo, Marco Tulio; Friedman, Jonathan; Waldor, Matthew K; Weiss, Scott T; Liu, Yang-Yu

2017-12-11

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities is a necessary step toward understanding their assembly rules and predicting their temporal behavior. However, existing methods require assuming a particular population dynamics model, which is not known a priori. Moreover, those methods require fitting longitudinal abundance data, which are often not informative enough for reliable inference. To overcome these limitations, here we develop a new method based on steady-state abundance data. Our method can infer the network topology and inter-taxa interaction types without assuming any particular population dynamics model. Additionally, when the population dynamics is assumed to follow the classic Generalized Lotka-Volterra model, our method can infer the inter-taxa interaction strengths and intrinsic growth rates. We systematically validate our method using simulated data, and then apply it to four experimental data sets. Our method represents a key step towards reliable modeling of complex, real-world microbial communities, such as the human gut microbiota.

Spatially- and Temporally-Resolved Measurements of Roadway Air Pollution Using a Zero-Emission Electric Vehicle

EPA Science Inventory

Vehicle-related air pollution has an intrinsically dynamic nature. Recent field measurements and modeling work have demonstrated that near-road topography may modify levels of air pollutants reaching populations residing and working in close proximity to roadways. However, the ma...

Population dynamics of intertidal oribatid mites (Acari: Cryptostigmata) from the subtropical archipelago of Bermuda.

PubMed

Pfingstl, Tobias

2013-10-01

The population dynamics of the three intertidal oribatid species, Alismobates inexpectatus, Fortuynia atlantica and Carinozetes bermudensis, have been studied on the archipelago of Bermuda over the course of a year. All three species are univoltine, showing a clear seasonal demographic pattern, with reproduction from spring to late autumn and a complete standstill of egg production in winter. A seasonal shift in sex ratio could also be observed in all three species and is supposed to be based on sex-dependent mortality. The subtropical climate of Bermuda allows longer reproductive periods than shown in other intertidal or edaphic temperate species and temperature is supposed to be the main factor influencing the demography of these intertidal dwelling mites. Although all three Bermudian species exhibit the same basic seasonal demographic pattern, there are slight temporal shifts in population dynamics, presumably caused by local microclimatic differences among the populations. Larviparity, shown in other littoral oribatid mites, is clearly absent in the present species.

Self-organization of bacterial communities against environmental pH variation: Controlled chemotactic motility arranges cell population structures in biofilms

PubMed Central

Nakayama, Madoka; Shoji, Wataru

2017-01-01

As with many living organisms, bacteria often live on the surface of solids, such as foods, organisms, buildings and soil. Compared with dispersive behavior in liquid, bacteria on surface environment exhibit significantly restricted mobility. They have access to only limited resources and cannot be liberated from the changing environment. Accordingly, appropriate collective strategies are necessarily required for long-term growth and survival. However, in spite of our deepening knowledge of the structure and characteristics of individual cells, strategic self-organizing dynamics of their community is poorly understood and therefore not yet predictable. Here, we report a morphological change in Bacillus subtilis biofilms due to environmental pH variations, and present a mathematical model for the macroscopic spatio-temporal dynamics. We show that an environmental pH shift transforms colony morphology on hard agar media from notched ‘volcano-like’ to round and front-elevated ‘crater-like’. We discover that a pH-dependent dose-response relationship between nutritional resource level and quantitative bacterial motility at the population level plays a central role in the mechanism of the spatio-temporal cell population structure design in biofilms. PMID:28253348

Distinct spatiotemporal activity in principal neurons of the mouse olfactory bulb in anesthetized and awake states

PubMed Central

Blauvelt, David G.; Sato, Tomokazu F.; Wienisch, Martin; Murthy, Venkatesh N.

2013-01-01

The acquisition of olfactory information and its early processing in mammals are modulated by brain states through sniffing behavior and neural feedback. We imaged the spatiotemporal pattern of odor-evoked activity in a population of output neurons (mitral/tufted cells, MTCs) in the olfactory bulb (OB) of head-restrained mice expressing a genetically-encoded calcium indicator. The temporal dynamics of MTC population activity were relatively simple in anesthetized animals, but were highly variable in awake animals. However, the apparently irregular activity in awake animals could be predicted well using sniff timing measured externally, or inferred through fluctuations in the global responses of MTC population even without explicit knowledge of sniff times. The overall spatial pattern of activity was conserved across states, but odor responses had a diffuse spatial component in anesthetized mice that was less prominent during wakefulness. Multi-photon microscopy indicated that MTC lateral dendrites were the likely source of spatially disperse responses in the anesthetized animal. Our data demonstrate that the temporal and spatial dynamics of MTCs can be significantly modulated by behavioral state, and that the ensemble activity of MTCs can provide information about sniff timing to downstream circuits to help decode odor responses. PMID:23543674

Self-organization of bacterial communities against environmental pH variation: Controlled chemotactic motility arranges cell population structures in biofilms.

PubMed

Tasaki, Sohei; Nakayama, Madoka; Shoji, Wataru

2017-01-01

As with many living organisms, bacteria often live on the surface of solids, such as foods, organisms, buildings and soil. Compared with dispersive behavior in liquid, bacteria on surface environment exhibit significantly restricted mobility. They have access to only limited resources and cannot be liberated from the changing environment. Accordingly, appropriate collective strategies are necessarily required for long-term growth and survival. However, in spite of our deepening knowledge of the structure and characteristics of individual cells, strategic self-organizing dynamics of their community is poorly understood and therefore not yet predictable. Here, we report a morphological change in Bacillus subtilis biofilms due to environmental pH variations, and present a mathematical model for the macroscopic spatio-temporal dynamics. We show that an environmental pH shift transforms colony morphology on hard agar media from notched 'volcano-like' to round and front-elevated 'crater-like'. We discover that a pH-dependent dose-response relationship between nutritional resource level and quantitative bacterial motility at the population level plays a central role in the mechanism of the spatio-temporal cell population structure design in biofilms.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-11-01

We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler-Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

PubMed

Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

2006-11-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Dynamics of Sylvatic Chagas Disease Vectors in Coastal Ecuador Is Driven by Changes in Land Cover

PubMed Central

Grijalva, Mario J.; Terán, David; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts. Conclusion We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio-ecological systems is a crucial, yet poorly considered, issue for the long-term control of Chagas disease. PMID:24968118

Bayesian population decoding of spiking neurons.

PubMed

Gerwinn, Sebastian; Macke, Jakob; Bethge, Matthias

2009-01-01

The timing of action potentials in spiking neurons depends on the temporal dynamics of their inputs and contains information about temporal fluctuations in the stimulus. Leaky integrate-and-fire neurons constitute a popular class of encoding models, in which spike times depend directly on the temporal structure of the inputs. However, optimal decoding rules for these models have only been studied explicitly in the noiseless case. Here, we study decoding rules for probabilistic inference of a continuous stimulus from the spike times of a population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with threshold noise. We derive three algorithms for approximating the posterior distribution over stimuli as a function of the observed spike trains. In addition to a reconstruction of the stimulus we thus obtain an estimate of the uncertainty as well. Furthermore, we derive a 'spike-by-spike' online decoding scheme that recursively updates the posterior with the arrival of each new spike. We use these decoding rules to reconstruct time-varying stimuli represented by a Gaussian process from spike trains of single neurons as well as neural populations.

Visualizing diurnal population change in urban areas for emergency management.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tetsuo; Medina, Richard M; Cova, Thomas J

2011-01-01

There is an increasing need for a quick, simple method to represent diurnal population change in metropolitan areas for effective emergency management and risk analysis. Many geographic studies rely on decennial U.S. Census data that assume that urban populations are static in space and time. This has obvious limitations in the context of dynamic geographic problems. The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes population data at the transportation analysis zone level in fifteen-minute increments. This level of spatial and temporal detail allows for improved dynamic population modeling. This article presents a methodology for visualizing and analyzing diurnal population change for metropolitan areas based on this readily available data. Areal interpolation within a geographic information system is used to create twenty-four (one per hour) population surfaces for the larger metropolitan area of Salt Lake County, Utah. The resulting surfaces represent diurnal population change for an average workday and are easily combined to produce an animation that illustrates population dynamics throughout the day. A case study of using the method to visualize population distributions in an emergency management context is provided using two scenarios: a chemical release and a dirty bomb in Salt Lake County. This methodology can be used to address a wide variety of problems in emergency management.

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

ESTUARINE-OCEAN EXCHANGE IN A NORTH PACIFIC ESTUARY: COMPARISON OF STEADY STATE AND DYNAMIC MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient levels in coastal waters must be accurately assessed to determine the nutrient effects of increasing populations on coastal ecosystems. To accomplish this goal, in-field data with sufficient temporal resolution are required to define nutrient sources and sinks, and to ul...

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Fusarium head blight and Trichothecene toxin types in Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many parts of the world Fusarium graminearum is the primary causal agent of Fusarium head blight (FHB), a disease of cereal crops that adversely affects crop yield, food safety, and animal health. We previously demonstrated population structure associated with differences in trichothecene toxin t...

Temporal dynamics and population genetic structure of Fusarium graminearum in the upper Midwestern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium graminearum sensu stricto causes Fusarium head blight (FHB) in wheat and barley, and contaminates grains with several trichothecene mycotoxins, causing destructive yield losses and economic impact in the United States. Recently, a F. graminearum strain collected from Minnesota (MN) was dete...

Population dynamics of stored maize insect pests in warehouses in two districts of Ghana

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding what insect species are present and their temporal and spatial patterns of distribution is important for developing a successful integrated pest management strategy for food storage in warehouses. Maize in many countries in Africa is stored in bags in warehouses, but little monitoring ...

Local disturbance cycles and the maintenance of heterogeneity across scales in marine metapopulations.

PubMed

Gouhier, Tarik C; Guichard, Frédéric

2007-03-01

In marine systems, the occurrence and implications of disturbance-recovery cycles have been revealed at the landscape level, but only in demographically open or closed systems where landscape-level dynamics are assumed to have no feedback effect on regional dynamics. We present a mussel metapopulation model to elucidate the role of landscape-level disturbance cycles for regional response of mussel populations to onshore productivity and larval transport. Landscape dynamics are generated through spatially explicit rules, and each landscape is connected to its neighbor through unidirectional larval dispersal. The role of landscape disturbance cycles in the regional system behavior is elucidated (1) in demographically open vs. demographically coupled systems, in relation to (2) onshore reproductive output and (3) the temporal scale of landscape disturbance dynamics. By controlling for spatial structure at the landscape and metapopulation levels, we first demonstrate the interaction between landscape and oceanographic connectivity. The temporal scale of disturbance cycles, as controlled by mussel colonization rate, plays a critical role in the regional behavior of the system. Indeed, fast disturbance cycles are responsible for regional synchrony in relation to onshore reproductive output. Slow disturbance cycles, however, lead to increased robustness to changes in productivity and to demographic coupling. These testable predictions indicate that the occurrence and temporal scale of local disturbance-recovery dynamics can drive large-scale variability in demographically open systems, and the response of metapopulations to changes in nearshore productivity.

Regulation of Cortical Dynamic Range by Background Synaptic Noise and Feedforward Inhibition

PubMed Central

Khubieh, Ayah; Ratté, Stéphanie; Lankarany, Milad; Prescott, Steven A.

2016-01-01

The cortex encodes a broad range of inputs. This breadth of operation requires sensitivity to weak inputs yet non-saturating responses to strong inputs. If individual pyramidal neurons were to have a narrow dynamic range, as previously claimed, then staggered all-or-none recruitment of those neurons would be necessary for the population to achieve a broad dynamic range. Contrary to this explanation, we show here through dynamic clamp experiments in vitro and computer simulations that pyramidal neurons have a broad dynamic range under the noisy conditions that exist in the intact brain due to background synaptic input. Feedforward inhibition capitalizes on those noise effects to control neuronal gain and thereby regulates the population dynamic range. Importantly, noise allows neurons to be recruited gradually and occludes the staggered recruitment previously attributed to heterogeneous excitation. Feedforward inhibition protects spike timing against the disruptive effects of noise, meaning noise can enable the gain control required for rate coding without compromising the precise spike timing required for temporal coding. PMID:26209846

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Using Dynamic Time Warping and Data Forensics to Examine Tradeoffs among Land-Energy-Water Networks Across the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManamay, R.; Allen, M. R.; Piburn, J.; Sanyal, J.; Stewart, R.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2017-12-01

Characterizing interdependencies among land-energy-water sectors, their vulnerabilities, and tipping points, is challenging, especially if all sectors are simultaneously considered. Because such holistic system behavior is uncertain, largely unmodeled, and in need of testable hypotheses of system drivers, these dynamics are conducive to exploratory analytics of spatiotemporal patterns, powered by tools, such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). Here, we conduct a retrospective analysis (1950 - 2010) of temporal trends in land use, energy use, and water use within US counties to identify commonalities in resource consumption and adaptation strategies to resource limitations. We combine existing and derived data from statistical downscaling to synthesize a temporally comprehensive land-energy-water dataset at the US county level and apply DTW and subsequent hierarchical clustering to examine similar temporal trends in resource typologies for land, energy, and water sectors. As expected, we observed tradeoffs among water uses (e.g., public supply vs irrigation) and land uses (e.g., urban vs ag). Strong associations between clusters amongst sectors reveal tight system interdependencies, whereas weak associations suggest unique behaviors and potential for human adaptations towards disruptive technologies and less resource-dependent population growth. Our framework is useful for exploring complex human-environmental system dynamics and generating hypotheses to guide subsequent energy-water-nexus research.

Patient-Adaptive Reconstruction and Acquisition in Dynamic Imaging with Sensitivity Encoding (PARADISE)

PubMed Central

Sharif, Behzad; Derbyshire, J. Andrew; Faranesh, Anthony Z.; Bresler, Yoram

2010-01-01

MR imaging of the human heart without explicit cardiac synchronization promises to extend the applicability of cardiac MR to a larger patient population and potentially expand its diagnostic capabilities. However, conventional non-gated imaging techniques typically suffer from low image quality or inadequate spatio-temporal resolution and fidelity. Patient-Adaptive Reconstruction and Acquisition in Dynamic Imaging with Sensitivity Encoding (PARADISE) is a highly-accelerated non-gated dynamic imaging method that enables artifact-free imaging with high spatio-temporal resolutions by utilizing novel computational techniques to optimize the imaging process. In addition to using parallel imaging, the method gains acceleration from a physiologically-driven spatio-temporal support model; hence, it is doubly accelerated. The support model is patient-adaptive, i.e., its geometry depends on dynamics of the imaged slice, e.g., subject’s heart-rate and heart location within the slice. The proposed method is also doubly adaptive as it adapts both the acquisition and reconstruction schemes. Based on the theory of time-sequential sampling, the proposed framework explicitly accounts for speed limitations of gradient encoding and provides performance guarantees on achievable image quality. The presented in-vivo results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the PARADISE method for high resolution non-gated cardiac MRI during a short breath-hold. PMID:20665794

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Recurrent competition explains temporal effects of attention in MSTd

PubMed Central

Layton, Oliver W.; Browning, N. Andrew

2012-01-01

Navigation in a static environment along straight paths without eye movements produces radial optic flow fields. A singularity called the focus of expansion (FoE) specifies the direction of travel (heading) of the observer. Cells in primate dorsal medial superior temporal area (MSTd) respond to radial fields and are therefore thought to be heading-sensitive. Humans frequently shift their focus of attention while navigating, for example, depending on the favorable or threatening context of approaching independently moving objects. Recent neurophysiological studies show that the spatial tuning curves of primate MSTd neurons change based on the difference in visual angle between an attentional prime and the FoE. Moreover, the peak mean population activity in MSTd retreats linearly in time as the distance between the attentional prime and FoE increases. We present a dynamical neural circuit model that demonstrates the same linear temporal peak shift observed electrophysiologically. The model qualitatively matches the neuron tuning curves and population activation profiles. After model MT dynamically pools short-range motion, model MSTd incorporates recurrent competition between units tuned to different radial optic flow templates, and integrates attentional signals from model area frontal eye fields (FEF). In the model, population activity peaks occur when the recurrent competition is most active and uncertainty is greatest about the relative position of the FoE. The nature of attention, multiplicative or non-multiplicative, is largely irrelevant, so long as attention has a Gaussian-like profile. Using an appropriately tuned sigmoidal signal function to modulate recurrent feedback affords qualitative fits of deflections in the population activity that otherwise appear to be low-frequency noise. We predict that these deflections mark changes in the balance of attention between the priming and FoE locations. PMID:23060788

Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

2012-12-01

The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

Resting state networks in empirical and simulated dynamic functional connectivity.

PubMed

Glomb, Katharina; Ponce-Alvarez, Adrián; Gilson, Matthieu; Ritter, Petra; Deco, Gustavo

2017-10-01

It is well-established that patterns of functional connectivity (FC) - measures of correlated activity between pairs of voxels or regions observed in the human brain using neuroimaging - are robustly expressed in spontaneous activity during rest. These patterns are not static, but exhibit complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Over the last years, a multitude of methods have been proposed to reveal these dynamics on the level of the whole brain. One finding is that the brain transitions through different FC configurations over time, and substantial effort has been put into characterizing these configurations. However, the dynamics governing these transitions are more elusive, specifically, the contribution of stationary vs. non-stationary dynamics is an active field of inquiry. In this study, we use a whole-brain approach, considering FC dynamics between 66 ROIs covering the entire cortex. We combine an innovative dimensionality reduction technique, tensor decomposition, with a mean field model which possesses stationary dynamics. It has been shown to explain resting state FC averaged over time and multiple subjects, however, this average FC summarizes the spatial distribution of correlations while hiding their temporal dynamics. First, we apply tensor decomposition to resting state scans from 24 healthy controls in order to characterize spatio-temporal dynamics present in the data. We simultaneously utilize temporal and spatial information by creating tensors that are subsequently decomposed into sets of brain regions ("communities") that share similar temporal dynamics, and their associated time courses. The tensors contain pairwise FC computed inside of overlapping sliding windows. Communities are discovered by clustering features pooled from all subjects, thereby ensuring that they generalize. We find that, on the group level, the data give rise to four distinct communities that resemble known resting state networks (RSNs): default mode network, visual network, control networks, and somatomotor network. Second, we simulate data with our stationary mean field model whose nodes are connected according to results from DTI and fiber tracking. In this model, all spatio-temporal structure is due to noisy fluctuations around the average FC. We analyze the simulated data in the same way as the empirical data in order to determine whether stationary dynamics can explain the emergence of distinct FC patterns (RSNs) which have their own time courses. We find that this is the case for all four networks using the spatio-temporal information revealed by tensor decomposition if nodes in the simulation are connected according to model-based effective connectivity. Furthermore, we find that these results require only a small part of the FC values, namely the highest values that occur across time and ROI pair. Our findings show that stationary dynamics can account for the emergence of RSNs. We provide an innovative method that does not make strong assumptions about the underlying data and is generally applicable to resting state or task data from different subject populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Nicholas H.; Wong, Aaron; Vitolo, Renato; Stolberg, Kristin; Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Mumby, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hantavirus Rodent-Borne Infection by Oligoryzomys fulvescens in the Agua Buena Region - Panama

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Publio; Cumbrera, Alberto; Rivero, Alina; Avila, Mario; Armién, Aníbal G.; Koster, Frederick; Glass, Gregory

2016-01-01

Background Hotspot detection and characterization has played an increasing role in understanding the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Identifying the specific environmental factors (or their correlates) that influence reservoir host abundance help increase understanding of how pathogens are maintained in natural systems and are crucial to identifying disease risk. However, most recent studies are performed at macro-scale and describe broad temporal patterns of population abundances. Few have been conducted at a microscale over short time periods that better capture the dynamical patterns of key populations. These finer resolution studies may better define the likelihood of local pathogen persistence. This study characterizes the landscape distribution and spatio-temporal dynamics of Oligoryzomys fulvescens (O. fulvescens), an important mammalian reservoir in Central America. Methods Information collected in a longitudinal study of rodent populations in the community of Agua Buena in Tonosí, Panama, between April 2006 and December 2009 was analyzed using non-spatial analyses (box plots) and explicit spatial statistical tests (correlograms, SADIE and LISA). A 90 node grid was built (raster format) to design a base map. The area between the nodes was 0.09 km2 and the total study area was 6.43 km2 (2.39 x 2.69 km). The temporal assessment dataset was divided into four periods for each year studied: the dry season, rainy season, and two months-long transitions between seasons (the months of April and December). Results There were heterogeneous patterns in the population densities and degrees of dispersion of O. fulvescens that varied across seasons and among years. The species typically was locally absent during the late transitional months of the season, and re-established locally in subsequent years. These populations re-occurred in the same area during the first three years but subsequently re-established further south in the final year of the study. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated local populations encompassed approximately 300–600 m. The borders between suitable and unsuitable habitats were sharply demarcated over short distances. Conclusion Oligoryzomys fulvescens showed a well-defined spatial pattern that evolved over time, and led to a pattern of changing aggregation. Thus, hot spots of abundance showed a general shifting pattern that helps explain the intermittent risk from pathogens transmitted by this species. This variation was associated with seasonality, as well as anthropogenic pressures that occurred with agricultural activities. These factors help define the characteristics of the occurrence, timing, intensity and duration of synanthropic populations affected by human populations and, consequently, possible exposure that local human populations experience. PMID:26894436

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hantavirus Rodent-Borne Infection by Oligoryzomys fulvescens in the Agua Buena Region--Panama.

PubMed

Armién, Blas; Ortiz, Paulo Lazaro; Gonzalez, Publio; Cumbrera, Alberto; Rivero, Alina; Avila, Mario; Armién, Aníbal G; Koster, Frederick; Glass, Gregory

2016-02-01

Hotspot detection and characterization has played an increasing role in understanding the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Identifying the specific environmental factors (or their correlates) that influence reservoir host abundance help increase understanding of how pathogens are maintained in natural systems and are crucial to identifying disease risk. However, most recent studies are performed at macro-scale and describe broad temporal patterns of population abundances. Few have been conducted at a microscale over short time periods that better capture the dynamical patterns of key populations. These finer resolution studies may better define the likelihood of local pathogen persistence. This study characterizes the landscape distribution and spatio-temporal dynamics of Oligoryzomys fulvescens (O. fulvescens), an important mammalian reservoir in Central America. Information collected in a longitudinal study of rodent populations in the community of Agua Buena in Tonosí, Panama, between April 2006 and December 2009 was analyzed using non-spatial analyses (box plots) and explicit spatial statistical tests (correlograms, SADIE and LISA). A 90 node grid was built (raster format) to design a base map. The area between the nodes was 0.09 km(2) and the total study area was 6.43 km(2) (2.39 x 2.69 km). The temporal assessment dataset was divided into four periods for each year studied: the dry season, rainy season, and two months-long transitions between seasons (the months of April and December). There were heterogeneous patterns in the population densities and degrees of dispersion of O. fulvescens that varied across seasons and among years. The species typically was locally absent during the late transitional months of the season, and re-established locally in subsequent years. These populations re-occurred in the same area during the first three years but subsequently re-established further south in the final year of the study. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated local populations encompassed approximately 300-600 m. The borders between suitable and unsuitable habitats were sharply demarcated over short distances. Oligoryzomys fulvescens showed a well-defined spatial pattern that evolved over time, and led to a pattern of changing aggregation. Thus, hot spots of abundance showed a general shifting pattern that helps explain the intermittent risk from pathogens transmitted by this species. This variation was associated with seasonality, as well as anthropogenic pressures that occurred with agricultural activities. These factors help define the characteristics of the occurrence, timing, intensity and duration of synanthropic populations affected by human populations and, consequently, possible exposure that local human populations experience.

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E

2012-01-01

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025

Time series modeling of live-cell shape dynamics for image-based phenotypic profiling.

PubMed

Gordonov, Simon; Hwang, Mun Kyung; Wells, Alan; Gertler, Frank B; Lauffenburger, Douglas A; Bathe, Mark

2016-01-01

Live-cell imaging can be used to capture spatio-temporal aspects of cellular responses that are not accessible to fixed-cell imaging. As the use of live-cell imaging continues to increase, new computational procedures are needed to characterize and classify the temporal dynamics of individual cells. For this purpose, here we present the general experimental-computational framework SAPHIRE (Stochastic Annotation of Phenotypic Individual-cell Responses) to characterize phenotypic cellular responses from time series imaging datasets. Hidden Markov modeling is used to infer and annotate morphological state and state-switching properties from image-derived cell shape measurements. Time series modeling is performed on each cell individually, making the approach broadly useful for analyzing asynchronous cell populations. Two-color fluorescent cells simultaneously expressing actin and nuclear reporters enabled us to profile temporal changes in cell shape following pharmacological inhibition of cytoskeleton-regulatory signaling pathways. Results are compared with existing approaches conventionally applied to fixed-cell imaging datasets, and indicate that time series modeling captures heterogeneous dynamic cellular responses that can improve drug classification and offer additional important insight into mechanisms of drug action. The software is available at http://saphire-hcs.org.

Day-to-Day Dynamics of Commensal Escherichia coli in Zimbabwean Cows Evidence Temporal Fluctuations within a Host-Specific Population Structure.

PubMed

Massot, Méril; Couffignal, Camille; Clermont, Olivier; D'Humières, Camille; Chatel, Jérémie; Plault, Nicolas; Andremont, Antoine; Caron, Alexandre; Mentré, France; Denamur, Erick

2017-07-01

To get insights into the temporal pattern of commensal Escherichia coli populations, we sampled the feces of four healthy cows from the same herd in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe daily over 25 days. The cows had not received antibiotic treatment during the previous 3 months. We performed viable E. coli counts and characterized the 326 isolates originating from the 98 stool samples at a clonal level, screened them for stx and eae genes, and tested them for their antibiotic susceptibilities. We observed that E. coli counts and dominant clones were different among cows, and very few clones were shared. No clone was shared by three or four cows. Clone richness and evenness were not different between cows. Within each host, the variability in the E. coli count was evidenced between days, and no clone was found to be dominant during the entire sampling period, suggesting the existence of clonal interference. Dominant clones tended to persist longer than subdominant ones and were mainly from phylogenetic groups A and B1. Five E. coli clones were found to contain both the stx 1 and stx 2 genes, representing 6.3% of the studied isolates. All cows harbored at least one Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) strain. Resistance to tetracycline, penicillins, trimethoprim, and sulfonamides was rare and observed in three clones that were shed at low levels in two cows. This study highlights the fact that the commensal E. coli population, including the STEC population, is host specific, is highly dynamic over a short time frame, and rarely carries antibiotic resistance determinants in the absence of antibiotic treatment. IMPORTANCE The literature about the dynamics of commensal Escherichia coli populations is very scarce. Over 25 days, we followed the total E. coli counts daily and characterized the sampled clones in the feces of four cows from the same herd living in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe. This study deals with the day-to-day dynamics of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of E. coli commensal populations, with a focus on both Shiga toxin-producing E. coli and antibiotic-resistant E. coli strains. We show that the structure of these commensal populations was highly specific to the host, even though the cows ate and roamed together, and was highly dynamic between days. Such data are of importance to understand the ecological forces that drive the dynamics of the emergence of E. coli clones of particular interest within the gastrointestinal tract and their transmission between hosts. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

PubMed

Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Spatially cascading effect of perturbations in experimental meta-ecosystems.

PubMed

Harvey, Eric; Gounand, Isabelle; Ganesanandamoorthy, Pravin; Altermatt, Florian

2016-09-14

Ecosystems are linked to neighbouring ecosystems not only by dispersal, but also by the movement of subsidy. Such subsidy couplings between ecosystems have important landscape-scale implications because perturbations in one ecosystem may affect community structure and functioning in neighbouring ecosystems via increased/decreased subsidies. Here, we combine a general theoretical approach based on harvesting theory and a two-patch protist meta-ecosystem experiment to test the effect of regional perturbations on local community dynamics. We first characterized the relationship between the perturbation regime and local population demography on detritus production using a mathematical model. We then experimentally simulated a perturbation gradient affecting connected ecosystems simultaneously, thus altering cross-ecosystem subsidy exchanges. We demonstrate that the perturbation regime can interact with local population dynamics to trigger unexpected temporal variations in subsidy pulses from one ecosystem to another. High perturbation intensity initially led to the highest level of subsidy flows; however, the level of perturbation interacted with population dynamics to generate a crash in subsidy exchange over time. Both theoretical and experimental results show that a perturbation regime interacting with local community dynamics can induce a collapse in population levels for recipient ecosystems. These results call for integrative management of human-altered landscapes that takes into account regional dynamics of both species and resource flows. © 2016 The Author(s).

Environmental fluctuations restrict eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey system.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Ayan, Gökçe B; Becks, Lutz

2015-06-07

Environmental fluctuations, species interactions and rapid evolution are all predicted to affect community structure and their temporal dynamics. Although the effects of the abiotic environment and prey evolution on ecological community dynamics have been studied separately, these factors can also have interactive effects. Here we used bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments to test for eco-evolutionary dynamics in fluctuating environments. Specifically, we followed population dynamics and a prey defence trait over time when populations were exposed to regular changes of bottom-up or top-down stressors, or combinations of these. We found that the rate of evolution of a defence trait was significantly lower in fluctuating compared with stable environments, and that the defence trait evolved to lower levels when two environmental stressors changed recurrently. The latter suggests that top-down and bottom-up changes can have additive effects constraining evolutionary response within populations. The differences in evolutionary trajectories are explained by fluctuations in population sizes of the prey and the predator, which continuously alter the supply of mutations in the prey and strength of selection through predation. Thus, it may be necessary to adopt an eco-evolutionary perspective on studies concerning the evolution of traits mediating species interactions. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Investigation of the Role of Intra-/Intercellular Dynamics in Bacterial Quorum Sensing.

PubMed

Leaman, Eric J; Geuther, Brian Q; Behkam, Bahareh

2018-04-20

Bacteria utilize diffusible signals to regulate population density-dependent coordinated gene expression in a process called quorum sensing (QS). While the intracellular regulatory mechanisms of QS are well-understood, the effect of spatiotemporal changes in the population configuration on the sensitivity and robustness of the QS response remains largely unexplored. Using a microfluidic device, we quantitatively characterized the emergent behavior of a population of swimming E. coli bacteria engineered with the lux QS system and a GFP reporter. We show that the QS activation time follows a power law with respect to bacterial population density, but this trend is disrupted significantly by microscale variations in population configuration and genetic circuit noise. We then developed a computational model that integrates population dynamics with genetic circuit dynamics to enable accurate (less than 7% error) quantitation of the bacterial QS activation time. Through modeling and experimental analyses, we show that changes in spatial configuration of swimming bacteria can drastically alter the QS activation time, by up to 22%. The integrative model developed herein also enables examination of the performance robustness of synthetic circuits with respect to growth rate, circuit sensitivity, and the population's initial size and spatial structure. Our framework facilitates quantitative tuning of microbial systems performance through rational engineering of synthetic ribosomal binding sites. We have demonstrated this through modulation of QS activation time over an order of magnitude. Altogether, we conclude that predictive engineering of QS-based bacterial systems requires not only the precise temporal modulation of gene expression (intracellular dynamics) but also accounting for the spatiotemporal changes in population configuration (intercellular dynamics).

Dynamics of monochromatically generated nonequilibrium phonons in LaF3:Pr3+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolbert, W. A.; Dennis, W. M.; Yen, W. M.

1990-07-01

The temporal evolution of nonequilibrium phonon populations in LaF3:Pr3+ is investigated at low temperatures (1.8 K) utilizing pulsed, tunable, monochromatic generation and time-resolved, tunable, narrow-band detection. High occupation number, narrow-band phonon populations are generated via far-infrared pumping of defect-induced one-phonon absorption. Time-resolved, frequency-selective detection is provided by optical sideband absorption. Nonequilibrium phonon decay times are measured and attributed to anharmonic decay.

Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, W.

2016-12-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

Spatio-temporal Genetic Structuring of Leishmania major in Tunisia by Microsatellite Analysis

PubMed Central

Harrabi, Myriam; Bettaieb, Jihène; Ghawar, Wissem; Toumi, Amine; Zaâtour, Amor; Yazidi, Rihab; Chaâbane, Sana; Chalghaf, Bilel; Hide, Mallorie; Bañuls, Anne-Laure; Ben Salah, Afif

2015-01-01

In Tunisia, cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major are increasing and spreading from the south-west to new areas in the center. To improve the current knowledge on L. major evolution and population dynamics, we performed multi-locus microsatellite typing of human isolates from Tunisian governorates where the disease is endemic (Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates) and collected during two periods: 1991–1992 and 2008–2012. Analysis (F-statistics and Bayesian model-based approach) of the genotyping results of isolates collected in Sidi Bouzid in 1991–1992 and 2008–2012 shows that, over two decades, in the same area, Leishmania parasites evolved by generating genetically differentiated populations. The genetic patterns of 2008–2012 isolates from the three governorates indicate that L. major populations did not spread gradually from the south to the center of Tunisia, according to a geographical gradient, suggesting that human activities might be the source of the disease expansion. The genotype analysis also suggests previous (Bayesian model-based approach) and current (F-statistics) flows of genotypes between governorates and districts. Human activities as well as reservoir dynamics and the effects of environmental changes could explain how the disease progresses. This study provides new insights into the evolution and spread of L. major in Tunisia that might improve our understanding of the parasite flow between geographically and temporally distinct populations. PMID:26302440

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea.

PubMed

Treml, Eric A; Ford, John R; Black, Kerry P; Swearer, Stephen E

2015-01-01

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes. The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics. These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.

Rapid contemporary evolution and clonal food web dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Laura E.; Becks, Lutz; Ellner, Stephen P.; Hairston, Nelson G.; Yoshida, Takehito; Fussmann, Gregor F.

2009-01-01

Character evolution that affects ecological community interactions often occurs contemporaneously with temporal changes in population size, potentially altering the very nature of those dynamics. Such eco-evolutionary processes may be most readily explored in systems with short generations and simple genetics. Asexual and cyclically parthenogenetic organisms such as microalgae, cladocerans and rotifers, which frequently dominate freshwater plankton communities, meet these requirements. Multiple clonal lines can coexist within each species over extended periods, until either fixation occurs or a sexual phase reshuffles the genetic material. When clones differ in traits affecting interspecific interactions, within-species clonal dynamics can have major effects on the population dynamics. We first consider a simple predator–prey system with two prey genotypes, parametrized with data from a well-studied experimental system, and explore how the extent of differences in defence against predation within the prey population determine dynamic stability versus instability of the system. We then explore how increased potential for evolution affects the community dynamics in a more general community model with multiple predator and multiple prey genotypes. These examples illustrate how microevolutionary ‘details’ that enhance or limit the potential for heritable phenotypic change can have significant effects on contemporaneous community-level dynamics and the persistence and coexistence of species. PMID:19414472

Reconstructing the temporal and spatial dynamics of emerald ash borer adults through dendrochronological analyses

Treesearch

Nathan W. Siegert; Deborah G. McCullough; Andrew M. Liebhold; Frank W. Telewski

2007-01-01

Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire; Coleoptera: Buprestidae) was identified in June 2002 as the cause of widespread ash (Fraxinus spp.) mortality in southeastern lower Michigan and Windsor, Ontario. Localized outlier populations have since been discovered across much of lower Michigan and in areas of Indiana, Ohio and...

Demographic and habitat requirements for conservation of bull trout

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; John D. Mclntyre

1993-01-01

Elements in bull trout biology, population dynamics, habitat, and biotic interactions important to conservation of the species are identified. Bull trout appear to have more specific habitat requirements than other salmonids, but no critical thresholds of acceptable habitat condition were found. Size, temporal variation, and spatial distribution are likely to influence...

Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of ear-feeding insect damage in pre-harvest corn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The key ear-feeding insects in the southeastern coastal plain region are the corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), the maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky, and the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say), in recent years. The population dynamics of E. servus and S. zeamais were monitore...

A dynamic neural field model of temporal order judgments.

PubMed

Hecht, Lauren N; Spencer, John P; Vecera, Shaun P

2015-12-01

Temporal ordering of events is biased, or influenced, by perceptual organization-figure-ground organization-and by spatial attention. For example, within a region assigned figural status or at an attended location, onset events are processed earlier (Lester, Hecht, & Vecera, 2009; Shore, Spence, & Klein, 2001), and offset events are processed for longer durations (Hecht & Vecera, 2011; Rolke, Ulrich, & Bausenhart, 2006). Here, we present an extension of a dynamic field model of change detection (Johnson, Spencer, Luck, & Schöner, 2009; Johnson, Spencer, & Schöner, 2009) that accounts for both the onset and offset performance for figural and attended regions. The model posits that neural populations processing the figure are more active, resulting in a peak of activation that quickly builds toward a detection threshold when the onset of a target is presented. This same enhanced activation for some neural populations is maintained when a present target is removed, creating delays in the perception of the target's offset. We discuss the broader implications of this model, including insights regarding how neural activation can be generated in response to the disappearance of information. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigatti, E.; Vieira, M. V.; Kajin, M.; Almeida, P. J. A. L.; de Menezes, M. A.; Cerqueira, R.

2016-02-01

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.

Approximating basins of attraction for dynamical systems via stable radial bases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavoretto, R.; De Rossi, A.; Perracchione, E.

2016-06-08

In applied sciences it is often required to model and supervise temporal evolution of populations via dynamical systems. In this paper, we focus on the problem of approximating the basins of attraction of such models for each stable equilibrium point. We propose to reconstruct the basins via an implicit interpolant using stable radial bases, obtaining the surfaces by partitioning the phase space into disjoint regions. An application to a competition model presenting jointly three stable equilibria is considered.

The Evolution of Phenotypic Switching in Subdivided Populations

PubMed Central

Carja, Oana; Liberman, Uri; Feldman, Marcus W.

2014-01-01

Stochastic switching is an example of phenotypic bet hedging, where offspring can express a phenotype different from that of their parents. Phenotypic switching is well documented in viruses, yeast, and bacteria and has been extensively studied when the selection pressures vary through time. However, there has been little work on the evolution of phenotypic switching under both spatially and temporally fluctuating selection pressures. Here we use a population genetic model to explore the interaction of temporal and spatial variation in determining the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic switching. We find that the stable switching rate is mainly determined by the rate of environmental change and the migration rate. This stable rate is also a decreasing function of the recombination rate, although this is a weaker effect than those of either the period of environmental change or the migration rate. This study highlights the interplay of spatial and temporal environmental variability, offering new insights into how migration can influence the evolution of phenotypic switching rates, mutation rates, or other sources of phenotypic variation. PMID:24496012

Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Reservoir Hosts, Vectors, and Human Hosts of West Nile Virus: A Review of the Recent Literature

PubMed Central

Ozdenerol, Esra; Taff, Gregory N.; Akkus, Cem

2013-01-01

Over the last two decades West Nile Virus (WNV) has been responsible for significant disease outbreaks in humans and animals in many parts of the World. Its extremely rapid global diffusion argues for a better understanding of its geographic extent. The purpose of this inquiry was to explore spatio-temporal patterns of WNV using geospatial technologies to study populations of the reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts, in addition to the spatio-temporal interactions among these populations. Review of the recent literature on spatial WNV disease risk modeling led to the conclusion that numerous environmental factors might be critical for its dissemination. New Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based studies are monitoring occurrence at the macro-level, and helping pinpoint areas of occurrence at the micro-level, where geographically-targeted, species-specific control measures are sometimes taken and more sophisticated methods of surveillance have been used. PMID:24284356

Optogenetic stimulation of a meso-scale human cortical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvaraj, Prashanth; Szeri, Andrew; Sleigh, Jamie; Kirsch, Heidi

2015-03-01

Neurological phenomena like sleep and seizures depend not only on the activity of individual neurons, but on the dynamics of neuron populations as well. Meso-scale models of cortical activity provide a means to study neural dynamics at the level of neuron populations. Additionally, they offer a safe and economical way to test the effects and efficacy of stimulation techniques on the dynamics of the cortex. Here, we use a physiologically relevant meso-scale model of the cortex to study the hypersynchronous activity of neuron populations during epileptic seizures. The model consists of a set of stochastic, highly non-linear partial differential equations. Next, we use optogenetic stimulation to control seizures in a hyperexcited cortex, and to induce seizures in a normally functioning cortex. The high spatial and temporal resolution this method offers makes a strong case for the use of optogenetics in treating meso scale cortical disorders such as epileptic seizures. We use bifurcation analysis to investigate the effect of optogenetic stimulation in the meso scale model, and its efficacy in suppressing the non-linear dynamics of seizures.

Ultrafast Coherent Dynamics of a Photonic Crystal All-Optical Switch.

PubMed

Colman, Pierre; Lunnemann, Per; Yu, Yi; Mørk, Jesper

2016-12-02

We present pump-probe measurements of an all-optical photonic crystal switch based on a nanocavity, resolving fast coherent temporal dynamics. The measurements demonstrate the importance of coherent effects typically neglected when considering nanocavity dynamics. In particular, we report the observation of an idler pulse and more than 10 dB parametric gain. The measurements are in good agreement with a theoretical model that ascribes the observation to oscillations of the free-carrier population in the nanocavity. The effect opens perspectives for the realization of new all-optical photonic crystal switches with unprecedented switching contrast.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

Optimal balance of the striatal medium spiny neuron network.

PubMed

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeffery R

2013-04-01

Slowly varying activity in the striatum, the main Basal Ganglia input structure, is important for the learning and execution of movement sequences. Striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) form cell assemblies whose population firing rates vary coherently on slow behaviourally relevant timescales. It has been shown that such activity emerges in a model of a local MSN network but only at realistic connectivities of 10 ~ 20% and only when MSN generated inhibitory post-synaptic potentials (IPSPs) are realistically sized. Here we suggest a reason for this. We investigate how MSN network generated population activity interacts with temporally varying cortical driving activity, as would occur in a behavioural task. We find that at unrealistically high connectivity a stable winners-take-all type regime is found where network activity separates into fixed stimulus dependent regularly firing and quiescent components. In this regime only a small number of population firing rate components interact with cortical stimulus variations. Around 15% connectivity a transition to a more dynamically active regime occurs where all cells constantly switch between activity and quiescence. In this low connectivity regime, MSN population components wander randomly and here too are independent of variations in cortical driving. Only in the transition regime do weak changes in cortical driving interact with many population components so that sequential cell assemblies are reproducibly activated for many hundreds of milliseconds after stimulus onset and peri-stimulus time histograms display strong stimulus and temporal specificity. We show that, remarkably, this activity is maximized at striatally realistic connectivities and IPSP sizes. Thus, we suggest the local MSN network has optimal characteristics - it is neither too stable to respond in a dynamically complex temporally extended way to cortical variations, nor is it too unstable to respond in a consistent repeatable way. Rather, it is optimized to generate stimulus dependent activity patterns for long periods after variations in cortical excitation.

Optimal Balance of the Striatal Medium Spiny Neuron Network

PubMed Central

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeffery R.

2013-01-01

Slowly varying activity in the striatum, the main Basal Ganglia input structure, is important for the learning and execution of movement sequences. Striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) form cell assemblies whose population firing rates vary coherently on slow behaviourally relevant timescales. It has been shown that such activity emerges in a model of a local MSN network but only at realistic connectivities of and only when MSN generated inhibitory post-synaptic potentials (IPSPs) are realistically sized. Here we suggest a reason for this. We investigate how MSN network generated population activity interacts with temporally varying cortical driving activity, as would occur in a behavioural task. We find that at unrealistically high connectivity a stable winners-take-all type regime is found where network activity separates into fixed stimulus dependent regularly firing and quiescent components. In this regime only a small number of population firing rate components interact with cortical stimulus variations. Around connectivity a transition to a more dynamically active regime occurs where all cells constantly switch between activity and quiescence. In this low connectivity regime, MSN population components wander randomly and here too are independent of variations in cortical driving. Only in the transition regime do weak changes in cortical driving interact with many population components so that sequential cell assemblies are reproducibly activated for many hundreds of milliseconds after stimulus onset and peri-stimulus time histograms display strong stimulus and temporal specificity. We show that, remarkably, this activity is maximized at striatally realistic connectivities and IPSP sizes. Thus, we suggest the local MSN network has optimal characteristics – it is neither too stable to respond in a dynamically complex temporally extended way to cortical variations, nor is it too unstable to respond in a consistent repeatable way. Rather, it is optimized to generate stimulus dependent activity patterns for long periods after variations in cortical excitation. PMID:23592954

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Flora in Forest, Grassland and Common Land Ecosystems of Western Chitwan, Nepal

PubMed Central

DANGOL, Dharma Raj; MAHARJAN, Keshav Lall

2013-01-01

This paper describes changes of species composition and population of flora in space and time in western Chitwan, Nepal. This paper also discusses on the changes in flora due to flood and human activities. To illustrate these changes, we used survey data collected from January to April of 1996, 2000, and 2007 from the Barandabhar forest, National Park forest and the forests along the Narayani River banks, grasslands of National Park and common lands of western Chitwan as a part of longitudinal study on “reciprocal relation of population and the environment”. From these data, density values were calculated to analyze spatial and temporal changes in flora species composition and population. We also noted the changes of top species in time and space in due course of time. If the species and its rank not changed, their densities (population) values of flora species changed. We found that changes in species composition, population, appearance or disappearance of flora from a particular space (research plot) were noted as a result of natural forces or human activities. PMID:25061414

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Flora in Forest, Grassland and Common Land Ecosystems of Western Chitwan, Nepal.

PubMed

Dangol, Dharma Raj; Maharjan, Keshav Lall

2012-06-30

This paper describes changes of species composition and population of flora in space and time in western Chitwan, Nepal. This paper also discusses on the changes in flora due to flood and human activities. To illustrate these changes, we used survey data collected from January to April of 1996, 2000, and 2007 from the Barandabhar forest, National Park forest and the forests along the Narayani River banks, grasslands of National Park and common lands of western Chitwan as a part of longitudinal study on "reciprocal relation of population and the environment". From these data, density values were calculated to analyze spatial and temporal changes in flora species composition and population. We also noted the changes of top species in time and space in due course of time. If the species and its rank not changed, their densities (population) values of flora species changed. We found that changes in species composition, population, appearance or disappearance of flora from a particular space (research plot) were noted as a result of natural forces or human activities.

Localized spatial and temporal attack dynamics of the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine. Forest Service research paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bentz, B.J.; Powell, J.A.; Logan, J.A.

1996-12-01

Colonization of a host tree by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) involves chemical communication that enables a massive aggregation of beetles on a single resource, thereby ensuring host death and subsequent beetle population survival. Beetle populations have evolved a mechanism for termination of colonization on a lodgepole pine tree at optimal beetle densities, with a concomitant switch of attacks to nearby trees. Observations of the daily spatial and temporal attack process of mountain pine beetles (nonepidemic) attacking lodgepole pine suggest that beetles switch attacks to a new host tree before the original focus tree is fully colonized, and thatmore » verbenone, an antiaggregating pheromone, may be acting within a tree rather than between trees.« less

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue 2009 outbreak in Córdoba City, Argentina.

PubMed

Estallo, E L; Carbajo, A E; Grech, M G; Frías-Céspedes, M; López, L; Lanfri, M A; Ludueña-Almeida, F F; Almirón, W R

2014-08-01

During 2009 the biggest dengue epidemic to date occurred in Argentina, affecting almost half the country. We studied the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreak in the second most populated city of the country, Córdoba city. Confirmed cases and the results of an Aedes aegypti monitoring during the outbreak were geolocated. The imported cases began in January, and the autochthonous in March. Thirty-three percent of the 130 confirmed cases were imported, and occurred mainly at the center of the city. The autochthonous cases were more frequent in the outskirts, specially in the NE and SE. Aedes aegypti infestation showed no difference between neighborhoods with or without autochthonous cases, neither between neighborhoods with autochthonous vs. imported cases. The neighborhoods with imported cases presented higher population densities. The majority of autochthonous cases occurred at ages between 25 and 44 years old. Cases formed a spatio-temporal cluster of up to 20 days and 12km. According to a mathematical model that estimates the required number of days needed for transmission according to daily temperature, the number of cases begun to fall when more than 15.5 days were needed. This may be a coarse estimation of mean mosquito survival in the area, provided that the study area is close to the global distribution limit of the vector, and that cases prevalence was very low. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics.

PubMed

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-10-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation.

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics

PubMed Central

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-01-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation. PMID:27699416

Temporally Adaptive Sampling: A Case Study in Rare Species Survey Design with Marbled Salamanders (Ambystoma opacum)

PubMed Central

Charney, Noah D.; Kubel, Jacob E.; Eiseman, Charles S.

2015-01-01

Improving detection rates for elusive species with clumped distributions is often accomplished through adaptive sampling designs. This approach can be extended to include species with temporally variable detection probabilities. By concentrating survey effort in years when the focal species are most abundant or visible, overall detection rates can be improved. This requires either long-term monitoring at a few locations where the species are known to occur or models capable of predicting population trends using climatic and demographic data. For marbled salamanders (Ambystoma opacum) in Massachusetts, we demonstrate that annual variation in detection probability of larvae is regionally correlated. In our data, the difference in survey success between years was far more important than the difference among the three survey methods we employed: diurnal surveys, nocturnal surveys, and dipnet surveys. Based on these data, we simulate future surveys to locate unknown populations under a temporally adaptive sampling framework. In the simulations, when pond dynamics are correlated over the focal region, the temporally adaptive design improved mean survey success by as much as 26% over a non-adaptive sampling design. Employing a temporally adaptive strategy costs very little, is simple, and has the potential to substantially improve the efficient use of scarce conservation funds. PMID:25799224

Corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong-Lak

Spatial dispersion is a main characteristic of insect populations. Dispersion pattern provides useful information for developing effective sampling and scouting programs because it affects sampling accuracy, efficiency, and precision. Insect dispersion, however, is dynamic in space and time and largely dependent upon interactions among insect, plant and environmental factors. This study investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of corn rootworm dispersion at different spatial scales by using the global positioning system, the geographic information system, and geostatistics. Egg dispersion pattern was random or uniform in 8-ha cornfields, but could be aggregated at a smaller scale. Larval dispersion pattern was aggregated regardless of spatial scales used in this study. Soil moisture positively affected corn rootworm egg and larval dispersions. Adult dispersion tended to be aggregated during peak population period and random or uniform early and late in the season and corn plant phenology was a major factor to determine dispersion patterns. The dispersion pattern of root injury by corn rootworm larval feeding was aggregated and the degree of aggregation increased as the root injury increased within the range of root injury observed in microscale study. Between-year relationships in dispersion among eggs, larvae, adult, and environment provided a strategy that could predict potential root damage the subsequent year. The best prediction map for the subsequent year's potential root damage was the dispersion maps of adults during population peaked in the cornfield. The prediction map was used to develop site-specific pest management that can reduce chemical input and increase control efficiency by controlling pests only where management is needed. This study demonstrated the spatio-temporal dynamics of insect population and spatial interactions among insects, plants, and environment.

Long-term dynamics of winter and summer annual communities in the Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Brown, J.H.; Valone, T.J.

2002-01-01

Winter and summer annuals in the Chihuahuan Desert have been intensively studied in recent years but little is known about the similarities and differences in the dynamics between these two communities. Using 15 yr of census data from permanent quadrats, this paper compared the characteristics and temporal dynamics of these two distinct, spatially co-existent but temporally segregated communities. Although the total number of summer annual species recorded during our 15 yr of observation was higher than winter annuals, the mean number of species observed each year was higher in the winter community. The winter community exhibited lower temporal variation in total plant abundance and populations of individual species, lower species turnover rate and higher evenness than the summer community. The rank abundances of species in winter were significantly positively correlated for a period of up to 7 yr while in summer significant positive correlations in rank abundance disappeared after 2 to 3 yr. The higher seasonal species diversity (i.e. number of species observed in each season) in winter rather than the overall special pool (over 15 yr) may be responsible for the greater community stability of winter annuals. The difference in long-term community dynamics between the two communities of annual plants are likely due to the differences in total species pool, life history traits (e.g. seed size), and seasonal climatic regimes.

A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks.

PubMed

Hocking, Daniel J; Thorson, James T; O'Neil, Kyle; Letcher, Benjamin H

2018-06-21

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty under-estimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatio-temporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 years. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the non-spatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatio-temporal model. We applied this model to Brook Trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 years from 1981 - 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatio-temporal autocorrelation best described young-of-the-year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately-high spatio-temporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatio-temporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spectral characteristics of dynamic functional connectivity between resting-state networks reveal information beyond static connectivity

PubMed Central

Yeh, Hsiang J.; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina; Haneef, Zulfi; Stern, John M.

2018-01-01

Estimation of functional connectivity (FC) has become an increasingly powerful tool for investigating healthy and abnormal brain function. Static connectivity, in particular, has played a large part in guiding conclusions from the majority of resting-state functional MRI studies. However, accumulating evidence points to the presence of temporal fluctuations in FC, leading to increasing interest in estimating FC as a dynamic quantity. One central issue that has arisen in this new view of connectivity is the dramatic increase in complexity caused by dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) estimation. To computationally handle this increased complexity, a limited set of dFC properties, primarily the mean and variance, have generally been considered. Additionally, it remains unclear how to integrate the increased information from dFC into pattern recognition techniques for subject-level prediction. In this study, we propose an approach to address these two issues based on a large number of previously unexplored temporal and spectral features of dynamic functional connectivity. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate time-varying patterns of functional connectivity between resting-state networks. Time-frequency analysis is then performed on dFC estimates, and a large number of previously unexplored temporal and spectral features drawn from signal processing literature are extracted for dFC estimates. We apply the investigated features to two neurologic populations of interest, healthy controls and patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, and show that the proposed approach leads to substantial increases in predictive performance compared to both traditional estimates of static connectivity as well as current approaches to dFC. Variable importance is assessed and shows that there are several quantities that can be extracted from dFC signal which are more informative than the traditional mean or variance of dFC. This work illuminates many previously unexplored facets of the dynamic properties of functional connectivity between resting-state networks, and provides a platform for dynamic functional connectivity analysis that facilitates its usage as an investigative measure for healthy as well as abnormal brain function. PMID:29320526

Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

PubMed

Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

2017-11-01

Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studying the Symbiotic Bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila in Individual, Living Steinernema carpocapsae Nematodes Using Microfluidic Systems.

PubMed

Stilwell, Matthew D; Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi; Weibel, Douglas B

2018-01-01

Animal-microbe symbioses are ubiquitous in nature and scientifically important in diverse areas, including ecology, medicine, and agriculture. Steinernema nematodes and Xenorhabdus bacteria compose an established, successful model system for investigating microbial pathogenesis and mutualism. The bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila is a species-specific mutualist of insect-infecting Steinernema carpocapsae nematodes. The bacterium colonizes a specialized intestinal pocket within the infective stage of the nematode, which transports the bacteria between insects that are killed and consumed by the pair for reproduction. Current understanding of the interaction between the infective-stage nematode and its bacterial colonizers is based largely on population-level, snapshot time point studies on these organisms. This limitation arises because investigating temporal dynamics of the bacterium within the nematode is impeded by the difficulty of isolating and maintaining individual living nematodes and tracking colonizing bacterial cells over time. To overcome this challenge, we developed a microfluidic system that enables us to spatially isolate and microscopically observe individual, living Steinernema nematodes and monitor the growth and development of the associated X. nematophila bacterial communities-starting from a single cell or a few cells-over weeks. Our data demonstrate, to our knowledge, the first direct, temporal, in vivo visual analysis of a symbiosis system and the application of this system to reveal continuous dynamics of the symbiont population in the living host animal. IMPORTANCE This paper describes an experimental system for directly investigating population dynamics of a symbiotic bacterium, Xenorhabdus nematophila , in its host-the infective stage of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae . Tracking individual and groups of bacteria in individual host nematodes over days and weeks yielded insight into dynamic growth and topology changes of symbiotic bacterial populations within infective juvenile nematodes. Our approach for studying symbioses between bacteria and nematodes provides a system to investigate long-term host-microbe interactions in individual nematodes and extrapolate the lessons learned to other bacterium-animal interactions.

Concise Review: Stem Cell Population Biology: Insights from Hematopoiesis.

PubMed

MacLean, Adam L; Lo Celso, Cristina; Stumpf, Michael P H

2017-01-01

Stem cells are fundamental to human life and offer great therapeutic potential, yet their biology remains incompletely-or in cases even poorly-understood. The field of stem cell biology has grown substantially in recent years due to a combination of experimental and theoretical contributions: the experimental branch of this work provides data in an ever-increasing number of dimensions, while the theoretical branch seeks to determine suitable models of the fundamental stem cell processes that these data describe. The application of population dynamics to biology is amongst the oldest applications of mathematics to biology, and the population dynamics perspective continues to offer much today. Here we describe the impact that such a perspective has made in the field of stem cell biology. Using hematopoietic stem cells as our model system, we discuss the approaches that have been used to study their key properties, such as capacity for self-renewal, differentiation, and cell fate lineage choice. We will also discuss the relevance of population dynamics in models of stem cells and cancer, where competition naturally emerges as an influential factor on the temporal evolution of cell populations. Stem Cells 2017;35:80-88. © 2016 AlphaMed Press.

Investigating Bacterial-Animal Symbioses with Light Sheet Microscopy

PubMed Central

Taormina, Michael J.; Jemielita, Matthew; Stephens, W. Zac; Burns, Adam R.; Troll, Joshua V.; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer; Guillemin, Karen

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Microbial colonization of the digestive tract is a crucial event in vertebrate development, required for maturation of host immunity and establishment of normal digestive physiology. Advances in genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic technologies are providing a more detailed picture of the constituents of the intestinal habitat, but these approaches lack the spatial and temporal resolution needed to characterize the assembly and dynamics of microbial communities in this complex environment. We report the use of light sheet microscopy to provide high resolution imaging of bacterial colonization of the zebrafish intestine. The methodology allows us to characterize bacterial population dynamics across the entire organ and the behaviors of individual bacterial and host cells throughout the colonization process. The large four-dimensional datasets generated by these imaging approaches require new strategies for image analysis. When integrated with other “omics” datasets, information about the spatial and temporal dynamics of microbial cells within the vertebrate intestine will provide new mechanistic insights into how microbial communities assemble and function within hosts. PMID:22983029

Experimental and theoretical investigation of radiation and dynamics properties in laser-produced carbon plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Qi; Su, Maogen; Wang, Bo; Cao, Shiquan; Sun, Duixiong; Dong, Chenzhong

2018-05-01

The radiation and dynamics properties of laser-produced carbon plasma in vacuum were studied experimentally with aid of a spatio-temporally resolved emission spectroscopy technique. In addition, a radiation hydrodynamics model based on the fluid dynamic equations and the radiative transfer equation was presented, and calculation of the charge states was performed within the time-dependent collisional radiative model. Detailed temporal and spatial evolution behavior about plasma parameters have been analyzed, such as velocity, electron temperature, charge state distribution, energy level population, and various atomic processes. At the same time, the effects of different atomic processes on the charge state distribution were examined. Finally, the validity of assuming a local thermodynamic equilibrium in the carbon plasma expansion was checked, and the results clearly indicate that the assumption was valid only at the initial (<80 ns) stage of plasma expansion. At longer delay times, it was not applicable near the plasma boundary because of a sharp drop of plasma temperature and electron density.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Exploring the temporal effects of seasonal water availability on the snail kite of Florida: Part III

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Martin, Julien; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2007-01-01

The Florida snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) is an endangered raptor that occurs as an isolated population, currently of about 2,000 birds, in the wetlands of southern and central Florida, USA. Its exclusive prey species, the apple snail (Pomacea paludosa) is strongly influenced by seasonal changes in water abundance. Droughts during the snail kite breeding season have a direct negative effect on snail kite survival and reproduction, but droughts are also needed to maintain aquatic vegetation types favorable to snail kite foraging for snails. We used a spatially explicit matrix model to explore the effects of temporal variation in water levels on the viability of the snail kite population under different temporal drought regimes in its wetland breeding habitat. We focused on three aspects of variations in water levels that were likely to affect kites: (1) drought frequency; (2) drought duration; and (3) drought timing within the year. We modeled a 31-year historical scenario using four different scenarios in which the average water level was maintained constant, but the amplitude of water level fluctuations was modified. Our results reveal the complexity of the effects of temporal variation in water levels on snail kite population dynamics. Management implications of these results are discussed. In particular, management decisions should not be based on annual mean water levels alone, but must consider the intra-annual variability.

Dynamic state estimation based on Poisson spike trains—towards a theory of optimal encoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susemihl, Alex; Meir, Ron; Opper, Manfred

2013-03-01

Neurons in the nervous system convey information to higher brain regions by the generation of spike trains. An important question in the field of computational neuroscience is how these sensory neurons encode environmental information in a way which may be simply analyzed by subsequent systems. Many aspects of the form and function of the nervous system have been understood using the concepts of optimal population coding. Most studies, however, have neglected the aspect of temporal coding. Here we address this shortcoming through a filtering theory of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We derive exact relations for the minimal mean squared error of the optimal Bayesian filter and, by optimizing the encoder, obtain optimal codes for populations of neurons. We also show that a class of non-Markovian, smooth stimuli are amenable to the same treatment, and provide results for the filtering and prediction error which hold for a general class of stochastic processes. This sets a sound mathematical framework for a population coding theory that takes temporal aspects into account. It also formalizes a number of studies which discussed temporal aspects of coding using time-window paradigms, by stating them in terms of correlation times and firing rates. We propose that this kind of analysis allows for a systematic study of temporal coding and will bring further insights into the nature of the neural code.

From stage to age in variable environments: life expectancy and survivorship.

PubMed

Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C

2006-06-01

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation. Our formulas describe the effects of cohort (birth) environmental condition on mortality at all ages, and of the effects on survivorship of environmental variability experienced over the course of life. This paper complements existing methods for time-invariant stage-based data, and adds to the information on population growth and dynamics available from stochastic demography.

Regulation of Cortical Dynamic Range by Background Synaptic Noise and Feedforward Inhibition.

PubMed

Khubieh, Ayah; Ratté, Stéphanie; Lankarany, Milad; Prescott, Steven A

2016-08-01

The cortex encodes a broad range of inputs. This breadth of operation requires sensitivity to weak inputs yet non-saturating responses to strong inputs. If individual pyramidal neurons were to have a narrow dynamic range, as previously claimed, then staggered all-or-none recruitment of those neurons would be necessary for the population to achieve a broad dynamic range. Contrary to this explanation, we show here through dynamic clamp experiments in vitro and computer simulations that pyramidal neurons have a broad dynamic range under the noisy conditions that exist in the intact brain due to background synaptic input. Feedforward inhibition capitalizes on those noise effects to control neuronal gain and thereby regulates the population dynamic range. Importantly, noise allows neurons to be recruited gradually and occludes the staggered recruitment previously attributed to heterogeneous excitation. Feedforward inhibition protects spike timing against the disruptive effects of noise, meaning noise can enable the gain control required for rate coding without compromising the precise spike timing required for temporal coding. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Four-electron model for singlet and triplet excitation energy transfers with inclusion of coherence memory, inelastic tunneling and nuclear quantum effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yosuke; Ebina, Kuniyoshi; Tanaka, Shigenori

2016-08-01

A computational scheme to describe the coherent dynamics of excitation energy transfer (EET) in molecular systems is proposed on the basis of generalized master equations with memory kernels. This formalism takes into account those physical effects in electron-bath coupling system such as the spin symmetry of excitons, the inelastic electron tunneling and the quantum features of nuclear motions, thus providing a theoretical framework to perform an ab initio description of EET through molecular simulations for evaluating the spectral density and the temporal correlation function of electronic coupling. Some test calculations have then been carried out to investigate the dependence of exciton population dynamics on coherence memory, inelastic tunneling correlation time, magnitude of electronic coupling, quantum correction to temporal correlation function, reorganization energy and energy gap.

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Dynamics of Reactive Microbial Hotspots in Concentration Gradient.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubert, A.; Farasin, J.; Tabuteau, H.; Dufresne, A.; Meheust, Y.; Le Borgne, T.

2017-12-01

In subsurface environments, bacteria play a major role in controlling the kinetics of a broad range of biogeochemical reactions. In such environments, nutrients fluxes and solute concentrations needed for bacteria metabolism may be highly variable in space and intermittent in time. This can lead to the formation of reactive hotspots where and when conditions are favorable to particular microorganisms, hence inducing biogeochemical reaction kinetics that differ significantly from those measured in homogeneous model environments. To investigate the impact of chemical gradients on the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of subsurface microorganism populations, we develop microfluidic cells allowing for a precise control of flow and chemical gradient conditions, as well as quantitative monitoring of the bacteria's spatial distribution and biofilm development. Using the non-motile Escherichia coli JW1908-1 strain and Gallionella capsiferriformans ES-2 as model organisms, we investigate the behavior and development of bacteria over a range of single and double concentration gradients in the concentrations of nutrients, electron donors and electron acceptors. We measure bacterial activity and population growth locally in precisely known hydrodynamic and chemical environments. This approach allows time-resolved monitoring of the location and intensity of reactive hotspots in micromodels as a function of the flow and chemical gradient conditions. We compare reactive microbial hotspot dynamics in our micromodels to classic growth laws and well-known growth parameters for the laboratory model bacteria Escherichia coli.We also discuss consequences for the formation and temporal dynamics of biofilms in the subsurface.

A framework for the assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of threatened coastal delphinids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jingzhen; Yang, Yingting; Yang, Feng; Li, Yuelin; Li, Lianjie; Lin, Derun; He, Tangtian; Liang, Bo; Zhang, Tao; Lin, Yao; Li, Ping; Liu, Wenhua

2016-01-01

The massively accelerated biodiversity loss rate in the Anthropocene calls for an efficient and effective way to identify the spatial and temporal dynamics of endangered species. To this end, we developed a useful identification framework based on a case study of locally endangered Sousa chinensis by combining both LEK (local ecological knowledge) evaluation and regional boat-based survey methods. Our study investigated the basic ecological information of Sousa chinensis in the estuaries of eastern Guangdong that had previously been neglected, which could guide the future study and conservation. Based on the statistical testing of reported spatial and temporal dolphins sighting data from fishermen and the ecological monitoring analyses, including sighting rate, site fidelity and residence time estimations, some of the current Sousa chinensis units are likely to be geographically isolated and critically endangered, which calls for much greater conservation efforts. Given the accelerated population extinction rate and increasing budgetary constraints, our survey pattern can be applied in a timely and economically acceptable manner to the spatial and temporal assessment of other threatened coastal delphinids, particularly when population distributions are on a large scale and traditional sampling methods are difficult to implement.

A framework for the assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of threatened coastal delphinids.

PubMed

Wang, Jingzhen; Yang, Yingting; Yang, Feng; Li, Yuelin; Li, Lianjie; Lin, Derun; He, Tangtian; Liang, Bo; Zhang, Tao; Lin, Yao; Li, Ping; Liu, Wenhua

2016-01-25

The massively accelerated biodiversity loss rate in the Anthropocene calls for an efficient and effective way to identify the spatial and temporal dynamics of endangered species. To this end, we developed a useful identification framework based on a case study of locally endangered Sousa chinensis by combining both LEK (local ecological knowledge) evaluation and regional boat-based survey methods. Our study investigated the basic ecological information of Sousa chinensis in the estuaries of eastern Guangdong that had previously been neglected, which could guide the future study and conservation. Based on the statistical testing of reported spatial and temporal dolphins sighting data from fishermen and the ecological monitoring analyses, including sighting rate, site fidelity and residence time estimations, some of the current Sousa chinensis units are likely to be geographically isolated and critically endangered, which calls for much greater conservation efforts. Given the accelerated population extinction rate and increasing budgetary constraints, our survey pattern can be applied in a timely and economically acceptable manner to the spatial and temporal assessment of other threatened coastal delphinids, particularly when population distributions are on a large scale and traditional sampling methods are difficult to implement.

The problem of ecological scaling in spatially complex, nonequilibrium ecological systems [chapter 3

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy Littell; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

In the previous chapter we reviewed the challenges posed by spatial complexity and temporal disequilibrium to efforts to understand and predict the structure and dynamics of ecological systems. The central theme was that spatial variability in the environment and population processes fundamentally alters the interactions between species and their environments, largely...

Temporal dynamics of ‘HoBi’-like pestivirus quasispecies in persistently infected calves generated under experimental conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

‘HoBi’-like virus is an atypical group within the Pestivirus genus that is implicated in economic losses for cattle producers due to both acute and persistent infections. Pestivirus strains exist as quasispecies (swarms of individual viruses) in infected animals and the viral populations making up t...

Dynamics of aerial and terrestrial populations of Phytophthora ramorum in a California watershed under different climatic conditions

Treesearch

Catherine A. Eyre; Melina Kozanitas; Matteo Garbelotto

2013-01-01

We present a study of the epidemiology of sudden oak death (SOD) in California within a watershed based on temporally and spatially replicated surveys of symptoms, viability of the pathogen from symptomatic leaves, and genetic analyses using polymorphic SSR markers.Phytophthora ramorum is sensitive to climate; its...

Spatio-temporal interactions facilitate large carnivore sympatry across a resource gradient

PubMed Central

Karanth, K. Ullas; Srivathsa, Arjun; Puri, Mahi; Parameshwaran, Ravishankar; Kumar, N. Samba

2017-01-01

Species within a guild vary their use of time, space and resources, thereby enabling sympatry. As intra-guild competition intensifies, such behavioural adaptations may become prominent. We assessed mechanisms of facilitating sympatry among dhole (Cuon alpinus), leopard (Panthera pardus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) in tropical forests of India using camera-trap surveys. We examined population-level temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal segregation among them across four reserves representing a gradient of carnivore and prey densities. Temporal and spatial overlaps were higher at lower prey densities. Combined spatio-temporal overlap was minimal, possibly due to chance. We found fine-scale avoidance behaviours at one high-density reserve. Our results suggest that: (i) patterns of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal segregation in sympatric carnivores do not necessarily mirror each other; (ii) carnivores are likely to adopt temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal segregation as alternative mechanisms to facilitate sympatry; and (iii) carnivores show adaptability across a gradient of resource availability, a driver of inter-species competition. We discuss behavioural mechanisms that permit carnivores to co-occupy rather than dominate functional niches, and adaptations to varying intensities of competition that are likely to shape structure and dynamics of carnivore guilds. PMID:28179511

Spatio-temporal interactions facilitate large carnivore sympatry across a resource gradient.

PubMed

Karanth, K Ullas; Srivathsa, Arjun; Vasudev, Divya; Puri, Mahi; Parameshwaran, Ravishankar; Kumar, N Samba

2017-02-08

Species within a guild vary their use of time, space and resources, thereby enabling sympatry. As intra-guild competition intensifies, such behavioural adaptations may become prominent. We assessed mechanisms of facilitating sympatry among dhole ( Cuon alpinus ), leopard ( Panthera pardus ) and tiger ( Panthera tigris ) in tropical forests of India using camera-trap surveys. We examined population-level temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal segregation among them across four reserves representing a gradient of carnivore and prey densities. Temporal and spatial overlaps were higher at lower prey densities. Combined spatio-temporal overlap was minimal, possibly due to chance. We found fine-scale avoidance behaviours at one high-density reserve. Our results suggest that: (i) patterns of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal segregation in sympatric carnivores do not necessarily mirror each other; (ii) carnivores are likely to adopt temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal segregation as alternative mechanisms to facilitate sympatry; and (iii) carnivores show adaptability across a gradient of resource availability, a driver of inter-species competition. We discuss behavioural mechanisms that permit carnivores to co-occupy rather than dominate functional niches, and adaptations to varying intensities of competition that are likely to shape structure and dynamics of carnivore guilds. © 2017 The Author(s).

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

2013-01-01

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of shifting cultivation in the middle-Amazonas river: Expansion and intensification.

PubMed

Jakovac, Catarina Conte; Dutrieux, Loïc Paul; Siti, Latifah; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Bongers, Frans

2017-01-01

Shifting cultivation is the main land-use system transforming landscapes in riverine Amazonia. Increased concentration of the human population around villages and increasing market integration during the last decades may be causing agricultural intensification. Studies have shown that agricultural intensification, i.e. higher number of swidden-fallow cycles and shorter fallow periods, reduces crop productivity of swiddens and the regrowth capacity of fallows, undermining the resilience of the shifting cultivation system as a whole. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of shifting cultivation in Brazilian Amazonia to test the hypotheses that (i) agriculture has become more intensive over time, and (ii) patterns of land-use intensity are related to land accessibility and human population density. We applied a breakpoint-detection algorithm to Landsat time-series spanning three decades (1984-2015) and retrieved the temporal dynamics of shifting cultivation fields, which go through alternating phases of crop production (swidden) and secondary forest regrowth (fallow). We found that fallow-period length has decreased from 6.4 to 5.1 years on average, and that expansion over old-growth forest has slowed down over time. Shorter fallow periods and higher frequency of slash and burn cycles are practiced closer to residences and around larger villages. Our results indicate that shifting cultivation in riverine Amazonia has gone through a process of agricultural intensification in the past three decades. The resulting landscape is predominantly covered by young secondary forests (≤ 12 yrs old), and 20% of it have gone through intensive use. Reversing this trend and avoiding the negative consequences of agricultural intensification requires land use planning that accounts for the constraints of land use in riverine areas.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of shifting cultivation in the middle-Amazonas river: Expansion and intensification

PubMed Central

Dutrieux, Loïc Paul; Siti, Latifah; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Bongers, Frans

2017-01-01

Shifting cultivation is the main land-use system transforming landscapes in riverine Amazonia. Increased concentration of the human population around villages and increasing market integration during the last decades may be causing agricultural intensification. Studies have shown that agricultural intensification, i.e. higher number of swidden-fallow cycles and shorter fallow periods, reduces crop productivity of swiddens and the regrowth capacity of fallows, undermining the resilience of the shifting cultivation system as a whole. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of shifting cultivation in Brazilian Amazonia to test the hypotheses that (i) agriculture has become more intensive over time, and (ii) patterns of land-use intensity are related to land accessibility and human population density. We applied a breakpoint-detection algorithm to Landsat time-series spanning three decades (1984–2015) and retrieved the temporal dynamics of shifting cultivation fields, which go through alternating phases of crop production (swidden) and secondary forest regrowth (fallow). We found that fallow-period length has decreased from 6.4 to 5.1 years on average, and that expansion over old-growth forest has slowed down over time. Shorter fallow periods and higher frequency of slash and burn cycles are practiced closer to residences and around larger villages. Our results indicate that shifting cultivation in riverine Amazonia has gone through a process of agricultural intensification in the past three decades. The resulting landscape is predominantly covered by young secondary forests (≤ 12 yrs old), and 20% of it have gone through intensive use. Reversing this trend and avoiding the negative consequences of agricultural intensification requires land use planning that accounts for the constraints of land use in riverine areas. PMID:28727828

Characterization of the Dispersal of Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata through the Selection of Spatially Explicit Models

PubMed Central

Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2010-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a major parasitic disease in Latin America, prevented in part by vector control programs that reduce domestic populations of triatomines. However, the design of control strategies adapted to non-domiciliated vectors, such as Triatoma dimidiata, remains a challenge because it requires an accurate description of their spatio-temporal distributions, and a proper understanding of the underlying dispersal processes. Methodology/Principal Findings We combined extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by T. dimidiata within a village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models in a selection model approach. Several models were implemented to provide theoretical predictions under different hypotheses on the origin of the dispersers and their dispersal characteristics, which we compared with the spatio-temporal pattern of infestation observed in the field. The best models fitted the dynamic of infestation described by a one year time-series, and also predicted with a very good accuracy the infestation process observed during a second replicate one year time-series. The parameterized models gave key insights into the dispersal of these vectors. i) About 55% of the triatomines infesting houses came from the peridomestic habitat, the rest corresponding to immigration from the sylvatic habitat, ii) dispersing triatomines were 5–15 times more attracted by houses than by peridomestic area, and iii) the moving individuals spread on average over rather small distances, typically 40–60 m/15 days. Conclusion/Significance Since these dispersal characteristics are associated with much higher abundance of insects in the periphery of the village, we discuss the possibility that spatially targeted interventions allow for optimizing the efficacy of vector control activities within villages. Such optimization could prove very useful in the context of limited resources devoted to vector control. PMID:20689823

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

Urban aerosols harbor diverse and dynamic bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Parker, Jordan P. Moberg; Zubietta, Ingrid X.; Piceno, Yvette M.; Andersen, Gary L.

2007-01-01

Considering the importance of its potential implications for human health, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability, surprisingly little is known regarding the composition or dynamics of the atmosphere's microbial inhabitants. Using a custom high-density DNA microarray, we detected and monitored bacterial populations in two U.S. cities over 17 weeks. These urban aerosols contained at least 1,800 diverse bacterial types, a richness approaching that of some soil bacterial communities. We also reveal the consistent presence of bacterial families with pathogenic members including environmental relatives of select agents of bioterrorism significance. Finally, using multivariate regression techniques, we demonstrate that temporal and meteorological influences can be stronger factors than location in shaping the biological composition of the air we breathe. PMID:17182744

Temporally Regular Musical Primes Facilitate Subsequent Syntax Processing in Children with Specific Language Impairment.

PubMed

Bedoin, Nathalie; Brisseau, Lucie; Molinier, Pauline; Roch, Didier; Tillmann, Barbara

2016-01-01

Children with developmental language disorders have been shown to be also impaired in rhythm and meter perception. Temporal processing and its link to language processing can be understood within the dynamic attending theory. An external stimulus can stimulate internal oscillators, which orient attention over time and drive speech signal segmentation to provide benefits for syntax processing, which is impaired in various patient populations. For children with Specific Language Impairment (SLI) and dyslexia, previous research has shown the influence of an external rhythmic stimulation on subsequent language processing by comparing the influence of a temporally regular musical prime to that of a temporally irregular prime. Here we tested whether the observed rhythmic stimulation effect is indeed due to a benefit provided by the regular musical prime (rather than a cost subsequent to the temporally irregular prime). Sixteen children with SLI and 16 age-matched controls listened to either a regular musical prime sequence or an environmental sound scene (without temporal regularities in event occurrence; i.e., referred to as "baseline condition") followed by grammatically correct and incorrect sentences. They were required to perform grammaticality judgments for each auditorily presented sentence. Results revealed that performance for the grammaticality judgments was better after the regular prime sequences than after the baseline sequences. Our findings are interpreted in the theoretical framework of the dynamic attending theory (Jones, 1976) and the temporal sampling (oscillatory) framework for developmental language disorders (Goswami, 2011). Furthermore, they encourage the use of rhythmic structures (even in non-verbal materials) to boost linguistic structure processing and outline perspectives for rehabilitation.

A stochastic-field description of finite-size spiking neural networks

PubMed Central

Longtin, André

2017-01-01

Neural network dynamics are governed by the interaction of spiking neurons. Stochastic aspects of single-neuron dynamics propagate up to the network level and shape the dynamical and informational properties of the population. Mean-field models of population activity disregard the finite-size stochastic fluctuations of network dynamics and thus offer a deterministic description of the system. Here, we derive a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing the temporal evolution of the finite-size refractory density, which represents the proportion of neurons in a given refractory state at any given time. The population activity—the density of active neurons per unit time—is easily extracted from this refractory density. The SPDE includes finite-size effects through a two-dimensional Gaussian white noise that acts both in time and along the refractory dimension. For an infinite number of neurons the standard mean-field theory is recovered. A discretization of the SPDE along its characteristic curves allows direct simulations of the activity of large but finite spiking networks; this constitutes the main advantage of our approach. Linearizing the SPDE with respect to the deterministic asynchronous state allows the theoretical investigation of finite-size activity fluctuations. In particular, analytical expressions for the power spectrum and autocorrelation of activity fluctuations are obtained. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to incorporate multiple interacting populations and quasi-renewal single-neuron dynamics. PMID:28787447

From swing to cane: Sex differences of EEG resting-state temporal patterns during maturation and aging.

PubMed

Tomescu, M I; Rihs, T A; Rochas, V; Hardmeier, M; Britz, J; Allali, G; Fuhr, P; Eliez, S; Michel, C M

2018-06-01

While many insights on brain development and aging have been gained by studying resting-state networks with fMRI, relating these changes to cognitive functions is limited by the temporal resolution of fMRI. In order to better grasp short-lasting and dynamically changing mental activities, an increasing number of studies utilize EEG to define resting-state networks, thereby often using the concept of EEG microstates. These are brief (around 100 ms) periods of stable scalp potential fields that are influenced by cognitive states and are sensitive to neuropsychiatric diseases. Despite the rising popularity of the EEG microstate approach, information about age changes is sparse and nothing is known about sex differences. Here we investigated age and sex related changes of the temporal dynamics of EEG microstates in 179 healthy individuals (6-87 years old, 90 females, 204-channel EEG). We show strong sex-specific changes in microstate dynamics during adolescence as well as at older age. In addition, males and females differ in the duration and occurrence of specific microstates. These results are of relevance for the comparison of studies in populations of different age and sex and for the understanding of the changes in neuropsychiatric diseases. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Subsidence Monitoring in Seville (S Spain) Using Multi-Temporal InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Armenteros, Antonio M.; Ruiz-Constan, Ana; Lamas-Fernandez, Francisco; Galindo-Zaldivar, Jesus; Sousa, Joaquim J.; Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos; Delgado, Manuel J.; Pedrera-Parias, Antonio; Martos-Rosillo, Sergio; Gil, Antonio J.; Caro-Cuenca, Miguel; Hanssen, Ramon F.

2016-08-01

Seville, with a metropolitan population of about 1.5 million, is the capital and largest city of Andalusia (S Spain). It is the 30th most populous municipality in the European Union and contains three UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The Seville harbour, located about 80 km from the Atlantic Ocean, is the only river port in Spain. The city is located on the plain of the Guadalquivir River. Using Multi-Temporal InSAR with ERS-1/2 and Envisat data a subsidence behavior is detected in the period 1992-2010. The geometry of the subsiding areas suggests that it should be conditioned by the fluvial dynamics of the Guadalquivir River and its tributaries. Facies distribution along the fluvial system (paleochannels, flood plains...), with different grain size and matrix proportion, may explain the relative subsidence between the different sectors.

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Sediment Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) Bacteria in Freshwater Lakes.

PubMed

Yang, Yuyin; Dai, Yu; Li, Ningning; Li, Bingxin; Xie, Shuguang; Liu, Yong

2017-02-01

Anaerobic ammonium-oxidizing (anammox) process can play an important role in freshwater nitrogen cycle. However, the distribution of anammox bacteria in freshwater lake and the associated environmental factors remain essentially unclear. The present study investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment anammox bacterial populations in eutrotrophic Dianchi Lake and mesotrophic Erhai Lake on the Yunnan Plateau (southwestern China). The remarkable spatial change of anammox bacterial abundance was found in Dianchi Lake, while the relatively slight spatial shift occurred in Erhai Lake. Dianchi Lake had greater anammox bacterial abundance than Erhai Lake. In both Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake, anammox bacteria were much more abundant in summer than in spring. Anammox bacterial community richness, diversity, and structure in these two freshwater lakes were subjected to temporal and spatial variations. Sediment anammox bacterial communities in Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake were dominated by Candidatus Brocadia and a novel phylotype followed by Candidatus Kuenenia; however, these two lakes had distinct anammox bacterial community structure. In addition, trophic status determined sediment anammox bacterial community structure.

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Analysis of absence seizure generation using EEG spatial-temporal regularity measures.

PubMed

Mammone, Nadia; Labate, Domenico; Lay-Ekuakille, Aime; Morabito, Francesco C

2012-12-01

Epileptic seizures are thought to be generated and to evolve through an underlying anomaly of synchronization in the activity of groups of neuronal populations. The related dynamic scenario of state transitions is revealed by detecting changes in the dynamical properties of Electroencephalography (EEG) signals. The recruitment procedure ending with the crisis can be explored through a spatial-temporal plot from which to extract suitable descriptors that are able to monitor and quantify the evolving synchronization level from the EEG tracings. In this paper, a spatial-temporal analysis of EEG recordings based on the concept of permutation entropy (PE) is proposed. The performance of PE are tested on a database of 24 patients affected by absence (generalized) seizures. The results achieved are compared to the dynamical behavior of the EEG of 40 healthy subjects. Being PE a feature which is dependent on two parameters, an extensive study of the sensitivity of the performance of PE with respect to the parameters' setting was carried out on scalp EEG. Once the optimal PE configuration was determined, its ability to detect the different brain states was evaluated. According to the results here presented, it seems that the widely accepted model of "jump" transition to absence seizure should be in some cases coupled (or substituted) by a gradual transition model characteristic of self-organizing networks. Indeed, it appears that the transition to the epileptic status is heralded before the preictal state, ever since the interictal stages. As a matter of fact, within the limits of the analyzed database, the frontal-temporal scalp areas appear constantly associated to PE levels higher compared to the remaining electrodes, whereas the parieto-occipital areas appear associated to lower PE values. The EEG of healthy subjects neither shows any similar dynamic behavior nor exhibits any recurrent portrait in PE topography.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Internal character dictates transition dynamics between isolation and cohesive grouping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2015-12-01

We show that accounting for internal character among interacting heterogeneous entities generates rich transition behavior between isolation and cohesive dynamical grouping. Our analytical and numerical calculations reveal different critical points arising for different character-dependent grouping mechanisms. These critical points move in opposite directions as the population's diversity decreases. Our analytical theory may help explain why a particular class of universality is so common in the real world, despite the fundamental differences in the underlying entities. It also correctly predicts the nonmonotonic temporal variation in connectivity observed recently in one such system.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

The temporal scaling of Caenorhabditis elegans ageing.

PubMed

Stroustrup, Nicholas; Anthony, Winston E; Nash, Zachary M; Gowda, Vivek; Gomez, Adam; López-Moyado, Isaac F; Apfeld, Javier; Fontana, Walter

2016-02-04

The process of ageing makes death increasingly likely, involving a random aspect that produces a wide distribution of lifespan even in homogeneous populations. The study of this stochastic behaviour may link molecular mechanisms to the ageing process that determines lifespan. Here, by collecting high-precision mortality statistics from large populations, we observe that interventions as diverse as changes in diet, temperature, exposure to oxidative stress, and disruption of genes including the heat shock factor hsf-1, the hypoxia-inducible factor hif-1, and the insulin/IGF-1 pathway components daf-2, age-1, and daf-16 all alter lifespan distributions by an apparent stretching or shrinking of time. To produce such temporal scaling, each intervention must alter to the same extent throughout adult life all physiological determinants of the risk of death. Organismic ageing in Caenorhabditis elegans therefore appears to involve aspects of physiology that respond in concert to a diverse set of interventions. In this way, temporal scaling identifies a novel state variable, r(t), that governs the risk of death and whose average decay dynamics involves a single effective rate constant of ageing, kr. Interventions that produce temporal scaling influence lifespan exclusively by altering kr. Such interventions, when applied transiently even in early adulthood, temporarily alter kr with an attendant transient increase or decrease in the rate of change in r and a permanent effect on remaining lifespan. The existence of an organismal ageing dynamics that is invariant across genetic and environmental contexts provides the basis for a new, quantitative framework for evaluating the manner and extent to which specific molecular processes contribute to the aspect of ageing that determines lifespan.

The temporal scaling of Caenorhabditis elegans ageing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroustrup, Nicholas; Anthony, Winston E.; Nash, Zachary M.; Gowda, Vivek; Gomez, Adam; López-Moyado, Isaac F.; Apfeld, Javier; Fontana, Walter

2016-02-01

The process of ageing makes death increasingly likely, involving a random aspect that produces a wide distribution of lifespan even in homogeneous populations. The study of this stochastic behaviour may link molecular mechanisms to the ageing process that determines lifespan. Here, by collecting high-precision mortality statistics from large populations, we observe that interventions as diverse as changes in diet, temperature, exposure to oxidative stress, and disruption of genes including the heat shock factor hsf-1, the hypoxia-inducible factor hif-1, and the insulin/IGF-1 pathway components daf-2, age-1, and daf-16 all alter lifespan distributions by an apparent stretching or shrinking of time. To produce such temporal scaling, each intervention must alter to the same extent throughout adult life all physiological determinants of the risk of death. Organismic ageing in Caenorhabditis elegans therefore appears to involve aspects of physiology that respond in concert to a diverse set of interventions. In this way, temporal scaling identifies a novel state variable, r(t), that governs the risk of death and whose average decay dynamics involves a single effective rate constant of ageing, kr. Interventions that produce temporal scaling influence lifespan exclusively by altering kr. Such interventions, when applied transiently even in early adulthood, temporarily alter kr with an attendant transient increase or decrease in the rate of change in r and a permanent effect on remaining lifespan. The existence of an organismal ageing dynamics that is invariant across genetic and environmental contexts provides the basis for a new, quantitative framework for evaluating the manner and extent to which specific molecular processes contribute to the aspect of ageing that determines lifespan.

The temporal scaling of Caenorhabditis elegans ageing

PubMed Central

Stroustrup, Nicholas; Anthony, Winston E.; Nash, Zachary M.; Gowda, Vivek; Gomez, Adam; López-Moyado, Isaac F.; Apfeld, Javier; Fontana, Walter

2016-01-01

The process of ageing makes death increasingly likely, but involves a random aspect that produces a wide distribution of lifespan even in homogeneous populations1,2. The study of this stochastic behaviour may link molecular mechanisms to the ageing process that determines lifespan. Here, by collecting high-precision mortality statistics from large populations, we observe that interventions as diverse as changes in diet, temperature, exposure to oxidative stress, and disruption of genes including the heat shock factor hsf-1, the hypoxia-inducible factor hif-1, and the insulin/IGF-1 pathway components daf-2, age-1, and daf-16 all alter lifespan distributions by an apparent stretching or shrinking of time. To produce such temporal scaling, each intervention must alter to the same extent throughout adult life all physiological determinants of the risk of death. Organismic ageing in Caenorhabditis elegans therefore appears to involve aspects of physiology that respond in concert to a diverse set of interventions. In this way, temporal scaling identifies a novel state variable, r(t), that governs the risk of death and whose average decay dynamics involves a single effective rate constant of ageing, kr. Interventions that produce temporal scaling influence lifespan exclusively by altering kr. Such interventions, when applied transiently even in early adulthood, temporarily alter kr with an attendant transient increase or decrease in the rate of change in r and a permanent effect on remaining lifespan. The existence of an organismal ageing dynamics that is invariant across genetic and environmental contexts provides the basis for a new, quantitative framework for evaluating how and how much specific molecular processes contribute to the aspect of ageing that determines lifespan. PMID:26814965

Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-01-01

Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in population dynamics and demography of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacin, D. H.; Switzer, T. S.; Ainsworth, C. H.; Stallings, C. D.

2016-12-01

In estuarine systems, proximity to the ocean has the potential to directly and indirectly drive patterns of fish distribution and population dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-independent data and quantified patterns of density, biomass, and growth rates of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across spatial and temporal scales in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Spatially, the highest density and biomass were found in the outermost regions (closest to the Gulf of Mexico) of the Bay, and these patterns were generally consistent temporally. Inter-annually, Pinfish density and biomass were the highest during periods coinciding with favorable oceanographic conditions (e.g., anomalously intense and prolonged upwelling) for across-shelf transport of larvae from spawning grounds in the Gulf to Tampa Bay. Intra-annually, density and biomass were the highest during spring and summer likely due to the combined effects of spawning timing (and delivery of new settlers), and high somatic growth fueled by increased secondary and primary productivity. Declines in density and biomass during the late summer through early winter were possibly due to high post-settlement mortality and egress to offshore habitats. Pinfish increased predictably in size across the months of the calendar year, and tended to be larger and grew faster in the innermost regions of the Bay, which were located farthest from the Gulf. Pinfish density was related to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, with the outermost regions of the Bay having greater seagrass cover, higher salinity, and being closer to the offshore larval pool where spawning occurs. Thus, this study provided evidence that distance to the ocean was an important driver of biotic and abiotic factors that influenced Pinfish demographic rates across spatial and temporal scales in the largest estuary in Florida.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

2002-03-01

We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Life-stage differences in spatial genetic structure in an irruptive forest insect: implications for dispersal and spatial synchrony

Treesearch

Patrick M.A. James; Barry Cooke; Bryan M.T. Brunet; Lisa M. Lumley; Felix A.H. Sperling; Marie-Josee Fortin; Vanessa S. Quinn; Brian R. Sturtevant

2015-01-01

Dispersal determines the flux of individuals, energy and information and is therefore a key determinant of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Yet, it remains difficult to quantify its importance relative to other factors. This is particularly true in cyclic populations in which demography, drift and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal variability in genetic...

Mapping human temporal and parietal neuronal population activity and functional coupling during mathematical cognition

PubMed Central

Daitch, Amy L.; Foster, Brett L.; Schrouff, Jessica; Rangarajan, Vinitha; Kaşikçi, Itır; Gattas, Sandra; Parvizi, Josef

2016-01-01

Brain areas within the lateral parietal cortex (LPC) and ventral temporal cortex (VTC) have been shown to code for abstract quantity representations and for symbolic numerical representations, respectively. To explore the fast dynamics of activity within each region and the interaction between them, we used electrocorticography recordings from 16 neurosurgical subjects implanted with grids of electrodes over these two regions and tracked the activity within and between the regions as subjects performed three different numerical tasks. Although our results reconfirm the presence of math-selective hubs within the VTC and LPC, we report here a remarkable heterogeneity of neural responses within each region at both millimeter and millisecond scales. Moreover, we show that the heterogeneity of response profiles within each hub mirrors the distinct patterns of functional coupling between them. Our results support the existence of multiple bidirectional functional loops operating between discrete populations of neurons within the VTC and LPC during the visual processing of numerals and the performance of arithmetic functions. These findings reveal information about the dynamics of numerical processing in the brain and also provide insight into the fine-grained functional architecture and connectivity within the human brain. PMID:27821758

Identifying spatio-temporal dynamics of Ebola in Sierra Leone using virus genomes

PubMed Central

Proctor, Joshua L.

2017-01-01

Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Despite recent progress in analysing and modelling EBOV epidemiological data, a complete characterization of the spatio-temporal spread of Ebola cases remains a challenge. In this work, we offer a novel perspective on the EBOV epidemic in Sierra Leone that uses individual virus genome sequences to inform population-level, spatial models. Calibrated to phylogenetic linkages of virus genomes, these spatial models provide unique insight into the disease mobility of EBOV in Sierra Leone without the need for human mobility data. Consistent with other investigations, our results show that the spread of EBOV during the beginning and middle portions of the epidemic strongly depended on the size of and distance between populations. Our phylodynamic analysis also revealed a change in model preference towards a spatial model with power-law characteristics in the latter portion of the epidemic, correlated with the timing of major intervention campaigns. More generally, we believe this framework, pairing molecular diagnostics with a dynamic model selection procedure, has the potential to be a powerful forecasting tool along with offering operationally relevant guidance for surveillance and sampling strategies during an epidemic. PMID:29187639

Comprehensive framework for visualizing and analyzing spatio-temporal dynamics of racial diversity in the entire United States

PubMed Central

Netzel, Pawel

2017-01-01

The United States is increasingly becoming a multi-racial society. To understand multiple consequences of this overall trend to our neighborhoods we need a methodology capable of spatio-temporal analysis of racial diversity at the local level but also across the entire U.S. Furthermore, such methodology should be accessible to stakeholders ranging from analysts to decision makers. In this paper we present a comprehensive framework for visualizing and analyzing diversity data that fulfills such requirements. The first component of our framework is a U.S.-wide, multi-year database of race sub-population grids which is freely available for download. These 30 m resolution grids have being developed using dasymetric modeling and are available for 1990-2000-2010. We summarize numerous advantages of gridded population data over commonly used Census tract-aggregated data. Using these grids frees analysts from constructing their own and allows them to focus on diversity analysis. The second component of our framework is a set of U.S.-wide, multi-year diversity maps at 30 m resolution. A diversity map is our product that classifies the gridded population into 39 communities based on their degrees of diversity, dominant race, and population density. It provides spatial information on diversity in a single, easy-to-understand map that can be utilized by analysts and end users alike. Maps based on subsequent Censuses provide information about spatio-temporal dynamics of diversity. Diversity maps are accessible through the GeoWeb application SocScape (http://sil.uc.edu/webapps/socscape_usa/) for an immediate online exploration. The third component of our framework is a proposal to quantitatively analyze diversity maps using a set of landscape metrics. Because of its form, a grid-based diversity map could be thought of as a diversity “landscape” and analyzed quantitatively using landscape metrics. We give a brief summary of most pertinent metrics and demonstrate how they can be applied to diversity maps. PMID:28358862

Analysis of the Mediterranean fruit fly [Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann)] spatio-temporal distribution in relation to sex and female mating status for precision IPM.

PubMed

Sciarretta, Andrea; Tabilio, Maria Rosaria; Lampazzi, Elena; Ceccaroli, Claudio; Colacci, Marco; Trematerra, Pasquale

2018-01-01

The Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), is a key pest of fruit crops in many tropical, subtropical and mild temperate areas worldwide. The economic importance of this fruit fly is increasing due to its invasion of new geographical areas. Efficient control and eradication efforts require adequate information regarding C. capitata adults in relation to environmental and physiological cues. This would allow effective characterisation of the population spatio-temporal dynamic of the C. capitata population at both the orchard level and the area-wide landscape. The aim of this study was to analyse population patterns of adult medflies caught using two trapping systems in a peach orchard located in central Italy. They were differentiated by adult sex (males or females) and mating status of females (unmated or mated females) to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic and evaluate the effect of cultivar and chemical treatments on trap catches. Female mating status was assessed by spermathecal dissection and a blind test was carried out to evaluate the reliability of the technique. Geostatistical methods, variogram and kriging, were used to produce distributional maps. Results showed a strong correlation between the distribution of males and unmated females, whereas males versus mated females and unmated females versus mated females showed a lower correlation. Both cultivar and chemical treatments had significant effects on trap catches, showing associations with sex and female mating status. Medfly adults showed aggregated distributions in the experimental field, but hot spots locations varied. The spatial pattern of unmated females reflected that of males, whereas mated females were largely distributed around ripening or ripe fruit. The results give relevant insights into pest management. Mated females may be distributed differently to unmated females and the identification of male hot spots through monitoring would allow localisation of virgin female populations. Based on our results, a more precise IPM strategy, coupled with effective sanitation practices, could represent a more effective approach to medfly control.

Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

2001-03-01

We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

Time-frequency analysis of neuronal populations with instantaneous resolution based on noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition.

PubMed

Alegre-Cortés, J; Soto-Sánchez, C; Pizá, Á G; Albarracín, A L; Farfán, F D; Felice, C J; Fernández, E

2016-07-15

Linear analysis has classically provided powerful tools for understanding the behavior of neural populations, but the neuron responses to real-world stimulation are nonlinear under some conditions, and many neuronal components demonstrate strong nonlinear behavior. In spite of this, temporal and frequency dynamics of neural populations to sensory stimulation have been usually analyzed with linear approaches. In this paper, we propose the use of Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (NA-MEMD), a data-driven template-free algorithm, plus the Hilbert transform as a suitable tool for analyzing population oscillatory dynamics in a multi-dimensional space with instantaneous frequency (IF) resolution. The proposed approach was able to extract oscillatory information of neurophysiological data of deep vibrissal nerve and visual cortex multiunit recordings that were not evidenced using linear approaches with fixed bases such as the Fourier analysis. Texture discrimination analysis performance was increased when Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode plus Hilbert transform was implemented, compared to linear techniques. Cortical oscillatory population activity was analyzed with precise time-frequency resolution. Similarly, NA-MEMD provided increased time-frequency resolution of cortical oscillatory population activity. Noise-Assisted Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition plus Hilbert transform is an improved method to analyze neuronal population oscillatory dynamics overcoming linear and stationary assumptions of classical methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2013-03-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and decline as well as the processes that drive it. This study demonstrates clear benefits over traditional seagrass mapping and monitoring approaches, and provides a proof of concept for the use of trend and time-series analysis of remotely sensed seagrass products to benefit current endeavours in seagrass ecology.

Demographic variation across successional stages and their effects on the population dynamics of the neotropical palm Euterpe precatoria.

PubMed

Otárola, Mauricio Fernández; Avalos, Gerardo

2014-06-01

• Premise of the study: Environmental heterogeneity is a strong selective force shaping adaptation and population dynamics across temporal and spatial scales. Natural and anthropogenic gradients influence the variation of environmental and biotic factors, which determine population demography and dynamics. Successional gradients are expected to influence demographic parameters, but the relationship between these gradients and the species life history, habitat requirements, and degree of variation in demographic traits remains elusive.• Methods: We used the palm Euterpe precatoria to test the effect of successional stage on plant demography within a continuous population. We calculated demographic parameters for size stages and performed matrix analyses to investigate the demographic variation within primary and secondary forests of La Selva, Costa Rica.• Key results: We observed differences in mortality and recruitment of small juveniles between primary and secondary forests. Matrix models described satisfactorily the chronosequence of population changes, which were characterized by high population growth rate in disturbed areas, and decreased growth rate in old successional forests until reaching stability.• Conclusions: Different demographic parameters can be expressed in contiguous subpopulations along a gradient of successional stages with important consequences for population dynamics. Demographic variation superimposed on these gradients contributes to generate subpopulations with different demographic composition, density, and ecological properties. Therefore, the effects of spatial variation must be reconsidered in the design of demographic analyses of tropical palms, which are prime examples of subtle local adaptation. These considerations are crucial in the implementation of management plans for palm species within spatially complex and heterogeneous tropical landscapes. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Population shuffling between ground and high energy excited states

PubMed Central

Sabo, T Michael; Trent, John O; Lee, Donghan

2015-01-01

Stochastic processes powered by thermal energy lead to protein motions traversing time-scales from picoseconds to seconds. Fundamental to protein functionality is the utilization of these dynamics for tasks such as catalysis, folding, and allostery. A hierarchy of motion is hypothesized to connect and synergize fast and slow dynamics toward performing these essential activities. Population shuffling predicts a “top-down” temporal hierarchy, where slow time-scale conformational interconversion leads to a shuffling of the free energy landscape for fast time-scale events. Until now, population shuffling was only applied to interconverting ground states. Here, we extend the framework of population shuffling to be applicable for a system interconverting between low energy ground and high energy excited states, such as the SH3 domain mutants G48M and A39V/N53P/V55L from the Fyn tyrosine kinase, providing another tool for accessing the structural dynamics of high energy excited states. Our results indicate that the higher energy gauche− rotameric state for the leucine χ2 dihedral angle contributes significantly to the distribution of rotameric states in both the major and minor forms of the SH3 domain. These findings are corroborated with unrestrained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on both the major and minor states of the SH3 domain demonstrating high correlations between experimental and back-calculated leucine χ2 rotameric populations. Taken together, we demonstrate how fast time-scale rotameric side-chain population distributions can be extracted from slow time-scale conformational exchange data further extending the scope and the applicability of the population shuffling model. PMID:26316263

Population shuffling between ground and high energy excited states.

PubMed

Sabo, T Michael; Trent, John O; Lee, Donghan

2015-11-01

Stochastic processes powered by thermal energy lead to protein motions traversing time-scales from picoseconds to seconds. Fundamental to protein functionality is the utilization of these dynamics for tasks such as catalysis, folding, and allostery. A hierarchy of motion is hypothesized to connect and synergize fast and slow dynamics toward performing these essential activities. Population shuffling predicts a "top-down" temporal hierarchy, where slow time-scale conformational interconversion leads to a shuffling of the free energy landscape for fast time-scale events. Until now, population shuffling was only applied to interconverting ground states. Here, we extend the framework of population shuffling to be applicable for a system interconverting between low energy ground and high energy excited states, such as the SH3 domain mutants G48M and A39V/N53P/V55L from the Fyn tyrosine kinase, providing another tool for accessing the structural dynamics of high energy excited states. Our results indicate that the higher energy gauche - rotameric state for the leucine χ2 dihedral angle contributes significantly to the distribution of rotameric states in both the major and minor forms of the SH3 domain. These findings are corroborated with unrestrained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on both the major and minor states of the SH3 domain demonstrating high correlations between experimental and back-calculated leucine χ2 rotameric populations. Taken together, we demonstrate how fast time-scale rotameric side-chain population distributions can be extracted from slow time-scale conformational exchange data further extending the scope and the applicability of the population shuffling model. © 2015 The Protein Society.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.

Creation of ultracold molecules within the lifetime scale by direct implementation of an optical frequency comb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Gengyuan; Malinovskaya, S. A.

2018-06-01

A method is proposed to create molecules in the ultracold state from the Feshbach molecules by stepwise adiabatic passage using an optical frequency comb without losses due to decoherence. An emphasis is made on the impact of the vibrational state manifold on controllability of the coherent dynamics by including five excited states into the model. The results are compared with recently reported results on a three-level ? system. Sinusoidal modulation across an individual pulse in the pulse train is applied, leading to the creation of a quasi-dark state, which minimizes population of the transitional, vibrational state manifold, and efficiently mitigates decoherence in the system. The parity of the temporal chirp is shown to be an important factor in designing population dynamics in the system.

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. Methods We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. Results The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Conclusions Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. PMID:25733558

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum.

PubMed

Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Haller, Benjamin C

2014-12-01

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population- and individual-based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Brain resting-state networks in adolescents with high-functioning autism: Analysis of spatial connectivity and temporal neurodynamics.

PubMed

Bernas, Antoine; Barendse, Evelien M; Aldenkamp, Albert P; Backes, Walter H; Hofman, Paul A M; Hendriks, Marc P H; Kessels, Roy P C; Willems, Frans M J; de With, Peter H N; Zinger, Svitlana; Jansen, Jacobus F A

2018-02-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is mainly characterized by functional and communication impairments as well as restrictive and repetitive behavior. The leading hypothesis for the neural basis of autism postulates globally abnormal brain connectivity, which can be assessed using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Even in the absence of a task, the brain exhibits a high degree of functional connectivity, known as intrinsic, or resting-state, connectivity. Global default connectivity in individuals with autism versus controls is not well characterized, especially for a high-functioning young population. The aim of this study is to test whether high-functioning adolescents with ASD (HFA) have an abnormal resting-state functional connectivity. We performed spatial and temporal analyses on resting-state networks (RSNs) in 13 HFA adolescents and 13 IQ- and age-matched controls. For the spatial analysis, we used probabilistic independent component analysis (ICA) and a permutation statistical method to reveal the RSN differences between the groups. For the temporal analysis, we applied Granger causality to find differences in temporal neurodynamics. Controls and HFA display very similar patterns and strengths of resting-state connectivity. We do not find any significant differences between HFA adolescents and controls in the spatial resting-state connectivity. However, in the temporal dynamics of this connectivity, we did find differences in the causal effect properties of RSNs originating in temporal and prefrontal cortices. The results show a difference between HFA and controls in the temporal neurodynamics from the ventral attention network to the salience-executive network: a pathway involving cognitive, executive, and emotion-related cortices. We hypothesized that this weaker dynamic pathway is due to a subtle trigger challenging the cognitive state prior to the resting state.

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

qSR: a quantitative super-resolution analysis tool reveals the cell-cycle dependent organization of RNA Polymerase I in live human cells.

PubMed

Andrews, J O; Conway, W; Cho, W -K; Narayanan, A; Spille, J -H; Jayanth, N; Inoue, T; Mullen, S; Thaler, J; Cissé, I I

2018-05-09

We present qSR, an analytical tool for the quantitative analysis of single molecule based super-resolution data. The software is created as an open-source platform integrating multiple algorithms for rigorous spatial and temporal characterizations of protein clusters in super-resolution data of living cells. First, we illustrate qSR using a sample live cell data of RNA Polymerase II (Pol II) as an example of highly dynamic sub-diffractive clusters. Then we utilize qSR to investigate the organization and dynamics of endogenous RNA Polymerase I (Pol I) in live human cells, throughout the cell cycle. Our analysis reveals a previously uncharacterized transient clustering of Pol I. Both stable and transient populations of Pol I clusters co-exist in individual living cells, and their relative fraction vary during cell cycle, in a manner correlating with global gene expression. Thus, qSR serves to facilitate the study of protein organization and dynamics with very high spatial and temporal resolutions directly in live cell.

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

Spatial and temporal features of the growth of a bacterial species colonizing the zebrafish gut.

PubMed

Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael J; Burns, Adam R; Hampton, Jennifer S; Rolig, Annah S; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

2014-12-16

The vertebrate intestine is home to microbial ecosystems that play key roles in host development and health. Little is known about the spatial and temporal dynamics of these microbial communities, limiting our understanding of fundamental properties, such as their mechanisms of growth, propagation, and persistence. To address this, we inoculated initially germ-free zebrafish larvae with fluorescently labeled strains of an Aeromonas species, representing an abundant genus in the zebrafish gut. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy to obtain three-dimensional images spanning the gut, we quantified the entire bacterial load, as founding populations grew from tens to tens of thousands of cells over several hours. The data yield the first ever measurements of the growth kinetics of a microbial species inside a live vertebrate intestine and show dynamics that robustly fit a logistic growth model. Intriguingly, bacteria were nonuniformly distributed throughout the gut, and bacterial aggregates showed considerably higher growth rates than did discrete individuals. The form of aggregate growth indicates intrinsically higher division rates for clustered bacteria, rather than surface-mediated agglomeration onto clusters. Thus, the spatial organization of gut bacteria both relative to the host and to each other impacts overall growth kinetics, suggesting that spatial characterizations will be an important input to predictive models of host-associated microbial community assembly. Our intestines are home to vast numbers of microbes that influence many aspects of health and disease. Though we now know a great deal about the constituents of the gut microbiota, we understand very little about their spatial structure and temporal dynamics in humans or in any animal: how microbial populations establish themselves, grow, fluctuate, and persist. To address this, we made use of a model organism, the zebrafish, and a new optical imaging technique, light sheet fluorescence microscopy, to visualize for the first time the colonization of a live, vertebrate gut by specific bacteria with sufficient resolution to quantify the population over a range from a few individuals to tens of thousands of bacterial cells. Our results provide unprecedented measures of bacterial growth kinetics and also show the influence of spatial structure on bacterial populations, which can be revealed only by direct imaging. Copyright © 2014 Jemielita et al.

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.

1989-01-01

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Characterizing dynamic spatial and temporal residential density patterns from 1940-1990 across the North Central United States

Treesearch

Roger B. Hammer; Susan I. Stewart; Richelle L. Winkler; Volker C. Radeloff; Paul R. Voss

2004-01-01

The spatial deconcentration of population during the 20th century and the resulting expansion of human settlements has been a significant cause of anthropogenic landscape change in the United States and many other countries. In the seven-state North Central Region, as in other regions of the US, changing human settlement patterns are most prominent at the outlying...

The Effect of Dynamic Pitch on Speech Recognition in Temporally Modulated Noise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shen, Jung; Souza, Pamela E.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study investigated the effect of dynamic pitch in target speech on older and younger listeners' speech recognition in temporally modulated noise. First, we examined whether the benefit from dynamic-pitch cues depends on the temporal modulation of noise. Second, we tested whether older listeners can benefit from dynamic-pitch cues for…

Propionibacterium acnes populations involved in deep pathological samples and their dynamics along the cardiac surgical pathway.

PubMed

Romano-Bertrand, S; Beretta, M; Jean-Pierre, H; Frapier, J-M; Calvet, B; Parer, S; Jumas-Bilak, E

2015-02-01

Propionibacterium acnes belongs to the normal skin microbiota, but it is also responsible for acne vulgaris and causes serious infections such as endocarditis and surgical site infections (SSI). The P. acnes population is structured into phylogenetic groups, with phylotype I being associated with acne. Herein, we explore the link between phylotypes and clinical origins in a collection of P. acnes isolated from different body sites, involved in deep infections or healthcare-associated infections (HAI), with particular emphasis on strains from cardiac SSI. Cardiac SSI have been further studied in terms of P. acnes population dynamics during the care pathway. The recA and tly genes phylotypes were compared to hemolytic behavior, susceptibility to antimicrobial agents, and clinical origins. An original approach of recA polymerase chain reaction temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (PCR-TTGE) was developed and applied for the direct identification of P. acnes phylotypes in surgical samples, in order to assess their temporal dynamics during the surgical course. Our results underlined the preferential involvement of IA-2/IB and II phylogroups in HAI and SSI. Unlike IA and II, type IA-2/IB presented a gradual increase with the depth of sampling in the peroperative phase of cardiac surgery. Phylotypes IA and IA-2/IB were both predominant in scar tissues and on postoperative skin, suggesting a specific predisposition to recolonize skin. Particular association of the phylotype IA-2/IB with SSI and its propensity to colonize wounds in cardiac surgery was observed. We assumed that the follow-up of P. acnes phylotypes during pathological processes could give new clues for P. acnes pathogenicity.

Modeling seasonal dynamics of the small fish cohorts in fluctuating freshwater marsh landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jopp, Fred; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.

2010-01-01

Small-bodied fishes constitute an important assemblage in many wetlands. In wetlands that dry periodically except for small permanent waterbodies, these fishes are quick to respond to change and can undergo large fluctuations in numbers and biomasses. An important aspect of landscapes that are mixtures of marsh and permanent waterbodies is that high rates of biomass production occur in the marshes during flooding phases, while the permanent waterbodies serve as refuges for many biotic components during the dry phases. The temporal and spatial dynamics of the small fishes are ecologically important, as these fishes provide a crucial food base for higher trophic levels, such as wading birds. We develop a simple model that is analytically tractable, describing the main processes of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population of small-bodied fish in a seasonal wetland environment, consisting of marsh and permanent waterbodies. The population expands into newly flooded areas during the wet season and contracts during declining water levels in the dry season. If the marsh dries completely during these times (a drydown), the fish need refuge in permanent waterbodies. At least three new and general conclusions arise from the model: (1) there is an optimal rate at which fish should expand into a newly flooding area to maximize population production; (2) there is also a fluctuation amplitude of water level that maximizes fish production, and (3) there is an upper limit on the number of fish that can reach a permanent waterbody during a drydown, no matter how large the marsh surface area is that drains into the waterbody. Because water levels can be manipulated in many wetlands, it is useful to have an understanding of the role of these fluctuations.

Exploring the effect of drought extent and interval on the Florida snail kite: Interplay between spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

The paper aims at exploring the viability of the Florida snail kite population under various drought regimes in its wetland habitat. The population dynamics of snail kites are strongly linked with the hydrology of the system due to the dependence of this bird species on one exclusive prey species, the apple snail, which is negatively affected by a drying out of habitat. Based on empirical evidence, it has been hypothesised that the viability of the snail kite population critically depends not only on the time interval between droughts, but also on the spatial extent of these droughts. A system wide drought is likely to result in reduced reproduction and increased mortality, whereas the birds can respond to local droughts by moving to sites where conditions are still favourable. This paper explores the implications of this hypothesis by means of a spatially-explicit individual-based model. The specific aim of the model is to study in a factorial design the dynamics of the kite population in relation to two scale parameters, the temporal interval between droughts and the spatial correlation between droughts. In the model high drought frequencies led to reduced numbers of kites. Also, habitat degradation due to prolonged periods of inundation led to lower predicted numbers of kites. Another main result was that when the spatial correlation between droughts was low, the model showed little variability in the predicted numbers of kites. But when droughts occurred mostly on a system wide level, environmental stochasticity strongly increased the stochasticity in kite numbers and in the worst case the viability of the kite population was seriously threatened.

Noise-induced hearing loss alters the temporal dynamics of auditory-nerve responses

PubMed Central

Scheidt, Ryan E.; Kale, Sushrut; Heinz, Michael G.

2010-01-01

Auditory-nerve fibers demonstrate dynamic response properties in that they adapt to rapid changes in sound level, both at the onset and offset of a sound. These dynamic response properties affect temporal coding of stimulus modulations that are perceptually relevant for many sounds such as speech and music. Temporal dynamics have been well characterized in auditory-nerve fibers from normal-hearing animals, but little is known about the effects of sensorineural hearing loss on these dynamics. This study examined the effects of noise-induced hearing loss on the temporal dynamics in auditory-nerve fiber responses from anesthetized chinchillas. Post-stimulus time histograms were computed from responses to 50-ms tones presented at characteristic frequency and 30 dB above fiber threshold. Several response metrics related to temporal dynamics were computed from post-stimulus-time histograms and were compared between normal-hearing and noise-exposed animals. Results indicate that noise-exposed auditory-nerve fibers show significantly reduced response latency, increased onset response and percent adaptation, faster adaptation after onset, and slower recovery after offset. The decrease in response latency only occurred in noise-exposed fibers with significantly reduced frequency selectivity. These changes in temporal dynamics have important implications for temporal envelope coding in hearing-impaired ears, as well as for the design of dynamic compression algorithms for hearing aids. PMID:20696230

Temporal efficiency evaluation and small-worldness characterization in temporal networks

PubMed Central

Dai, Zhongxiang; Chen, Yu; Li, Junhua; Fam, Johnson; Bezerianos, Anastasios; Sun, Yu

2016-01-01

Numerous real-world systems can be modeled as networks. To date, most network studies have been conducted assuming stationary network characteristics. Many systems, however, undergo topological changes over time. Temporal networks, which incorporate time into conventional network models, are therefore more accurate representations of such dynamic systems. Here, we introduce a novel generalized analytical framework for temporal networks, which enables 1) robust evaluation of the efficiency of temporal information exchange using two new network metrics and 2) quantitative inspection of the temporal small-worldness. Specifically, we define new robust temporal network efficiency measures by incorporating the time dependency of temporal distance. We propose a temporal regular network model, and based on this plus the redefined temporal efficiency metrics and widely used temporal random network models, we introduce a quantitative approach for identifying temporal small-world architectures (featuring high temporal network efficiency both globally and locally). In addition, within this framework, we can uncover network-specific dynamic structures. Applications to brain networks, international trade networks, and social networks reveal prominent temporal small-world properties with distinct dynamic network structures. We believe that the framework can provide further insight into dynamic changes in the network topology of various real-world systems and significantly promote research on temporal networks. PMID:27682314

Temporal efficiency evaluation and small-worldness characterization in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Zhongxiang; Chen, Yu; Li, Junhua; Fam, Johnson; Bezerianos, Anastasios; Sun, Yu

2016-09-01

Numerous real-world systems can be modeled as networks. To date, most network studies have been conducted assuming stationary network characteristics. Many systems, however, undergo topological changes over time. Temporal networks, which incorporate time into conventional network models, are therefore more accurate representations of such dynamic systems. Here, we introduce a novel generalized analytical framework for temporal networks, which enables 1) robust evaluation of the efficiency of temporal information exchange using two new network metrics and 2) quantitative inspection of the temporal small-worldness. Specifically, we define new robust temporal network efficiency measures by incorporating the time dependency of temporal distance. We propose a temporal regular network model, and based on this plus the redefined temporal efficiency metrics and widely used temporal random network models, we introduce a quantitative approach for identifying temporal small-world architectures (featuring high temporal network efficiency both globally and locally). In addition, within this framework, we can uncover network-specific dynamic structures. Applications to brain networks, international trade networks, and social networks reveal prominent temporal small-world properties with distinct dynamic network structures. We believe that the framework can provide further insight into dynamic changes in the network topology of various real-world systems and significantly promote research on temporal networks.

Long-term variation in influenza A virus prevalence and subtype diversity in migratory mallards in northern Europe

PubMed Central

Latorre-Margalef, Neus; Tolf, Conny; Grosbois, Vladimir; Avril, Alexis; Bengtsson, Daniel; Wille, Michelle; Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Olsen, Björn; Waldenström, Jonas

2014-01-01

Data on long-term circulation of pathogens in wildlife populations are seldom collected, and hence understanding of spatial–temporal variation in prevalence and genotypes is limited. Here, we analysed a long-term surveillance series on influenza A virus (IAV) in mallards collected at an important migratory stopover site from 2002 to 2010, and characterized seasonal dynamics in virus prevalence and subtype diversity. Prevalence dynamics were influenced by year, but retained a common pattern for all years whereby prevalence was low in spring and summer, but increased in early autumn with a first peak in August, and a second more pronounced peak during October–November. A total of 74 haemagglutinin (HA)/neuraminidase (NA) combinations were isolated, including all NA and most HA (H1–H12) subtypes. The most common subtype combinations were H4N6, H1N1, H2N3, H5N2, H6N2 and H11N9, and showed a clear linkage between specific HA and NA subtypes. Furthermore, there was a temporal structuring of subtypes within seasons based on HA phylogenetic relatedness. Dissimilar HA subtypes tended to have different temporal occurrence within seasons, where the subtypes that dominated in early autumn were rare in late autumn, and vice versa. This suggests that build-up of herd immunity affected IAV dynamics in this system. PMID:24573857

Effects of temporal fluctuation in population processes of intertidal Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) aggregations on its ecosystem engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Renata M. S.; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Guarini, Jean-Marc; Vincx, Magda; Van Colen, Carl

2017-03-01

Ecosystem engineers contribute to ecosystem functioning by regulating key environmental attributes, such as habitat availability and sediment biogeochemistry. While autogenic engineers can increase habitat complexity passively and provide physical protection to other species, allogenic engineers can regulate sediment oxygenation and biogeochemistry through bioturbation and/or bioirrigation. Their effects rely on the physical attributes of the engineer and/or its biogenic constructs, such as abundance and/or size. The present study focused on tube aggregations of a sessile, tube-building polychaete that engineers marine sediments, Lanice conchilega. Its tube aggregations modulate water flow by dissipating energy, influencing sedimentary processes and increasing particle retention. These effects can be influenced by temporal fluctuations in population demographic processes. Presently, we investigated the relationship between population processes and ecosystem engineering through an in-situ survey (1.5 years) of L. conchilega aggregations at the sandy beach of Boulogne-sur-Mer (France). We (1) evaluated temporal patterns in population structure, and (2) investigated how these are related to the ecosystem engineering of L. conchilega on marine sediments. During our survey, we assessed tube density, demographic structure, and sediment properties (surficial chl-a, EPS, TOM, median and mode grain size, sorting, and mud and water content) on a monthly basis for 12 intertidal aggregations. We found that the population was mainly composed by short-lived (6-10 months), small-medium individuals. Mass mortality severely reduced population density during winter. However the population persisted, likely due to recruits from other populations, which are associated to short- and long-term population dynamics. Two periods of recruitment were identified: spring/summer and autumn. Population density was highest during the spring recruitment and significantly affected several environmental properties (i.e. EPS, TOM, mode grain size, mud and water content), suggesting that demographic processes may be responsible for periods of pronounced ecosystem engineering with densities of approx. 30 000 ind·m-2.

Ecological drivers of guanaco recruitment: variable carrying capacity and density dependence.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Pascual, Miguel; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-08-01

Ungulates living in predator-free reserves offer the opportunity to study the influence of food limitation on population dynamics without the potentially confounding effects of top-down regulation or livestock competition. We assessed the influence of relative forage availability and population density on guanaco recruitment in two predator-free reserves in eastern Patagonia, with contrasting scenarios of population density. We also explored the relative contribution of the observed recruitment to population growth using a deterministic linear model to test the assumption that the studied populations were closed units. The observed densities increased twice as fast as our theoretical populations, indicating that marked immigration has taken place during the recovery phase experienced by both populations, thus we rejected the closed-population assumption. Regarding the factors driving variation in recruitment, in the low- to medium-density setting, we found a positive linear relationship between recruitment and surrogates of annual primary production, whereas no density dependence was detected. In contrast, in the high-density scenario, both annual primary production and population density showed marked effects, indicating a positive relationship between recruitment and per capita food availability above a food-limitation threshold. Our results support the idea that environmental carrying capacity fluctuates in response to climatic variation, and that these fluctuations have relevant consequences for herbivore dynamics, such as amplifying density dependence in drier years. We conclude that including the coupling between environmental variability in resources and density dependence is crucial to model ungulate population dynamics; to overlook temporal changes in carrying capacity may even mask density dependence as well as other important processes.

Population dynamics of two antilisterial cheese surface consortia revealed by temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Surface contamination of smear cheese by Listeria spp. is of major concern for the industry. Complex smear ecosystems have been shown to harbor antilisterial potential but the microorganisms and mechanisms involved in the inhibition mostly remain unclear, and are likely related to complex interactions than to production of single antimicrobial compounds. Bacterial biodiversity and population dynamics of complex smear ecosystems exhibiting antilisterial properties in situ were investigated by Temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TTGE), a culture independent technique, for two microbial consortia isolated from commercial Raclette type cheeses inoculated with defined commercial ripening cultures (F) or produced with an old-young smearing process (M). Results TTGE revealed nine bacterial species common to both F and M consortia, but consortium F exhibited a higher diversity than consortium M, with thirteen and ten species, respectively. Population dynamics were studied after application of the consortia on fresh-produced Raclette cheeses. TTGE analyses revealed a similar sequential development of the nine species common to both consortia. Beside common cheese surface bacteria (Staphylococcus equorum, Corynebacterium spp., Brevibacterium linens, Microbacterium gubbeenense, Agrococcus casei), the two consortia contained marine lactic acid bacteria (Alkalibacterium kapii, Marinilactibacillus psychrotolerans) that developed early in ripening (day 14 to 20), shortly after the growth of staphylococci (day 7). A decrease of Listeria counts was observed on cheese surface inoculated at day 7 with 0.1-1 × 102 CFU cm-2, when cheeses were smeared with consortium F or M. Listeria counts went below the detection limit of the method between day 14 and 28 and no subsequent regrowth was detected over 60 to 80 ripening days. In contrast, Listeria grew to high counts (105 CFU cm-2) on cheeses smeared with a defined surface culture. Conclusions This work reports the first population dynamics study of complex smear ecosystems exhibiting in situ antilisterial activity. TTGE revealed the presence of marine lactic acid bacteria that are likely related to the strong Listeria inhibition, as their early development in the smear occurred simultaneously with a decrease in Listeria cell count. PMID:20222967

Use of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial statistics to assess spatio-temporal population dynamics of Heterodera glycines and soybean yield quantity and quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Antonio Jose De Araujo

Soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., is an important source of oil and protein worldwide, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines, is among the most important yield-limiting factors in soybean production worldwide. Early detection of SCN is difficult because soybean plants infected by SCN often do not exhibit visible symptoms. It was hypothesized, however, that reflectance data obtained by remote sensing from soybean canopies may be used to detect plant stress caused by SCN infection. Moreover, reflectance measurements may be related to soybean growth and yield. Two field experiments were conducted from 2000 to 2002 to study the relationships among reflectance data, quantity and quality of soybean yield, and SCN population densities. The best relationships between reflectance and the quantity of soybean grain yield occurred when reflectance data were obtained late August to early September. Similarly, reflectance was best related to seed oil and seed protein content and seed size when measured during late August/early September. Grain quality-reflectance relationships varied spatially and temporally. Reflectance measured early or late in the season had the best relationships with SCN population densities measured at planting. Soil properties likely affected reflectance measurements obtained at the beginning of the season and somehow may have been related to SCN population densities at planting. Reflectance data obtained at the end of the growing season likely was affected by early senescence of SCN-infected soybeans. Spatio-temporal aspects of SCN population densities in both experiments were assessed using spatial statistics and regression analyses. In the 2000 and 2001 growing seasons, spring-to-fall changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at planting for both experiments. However, within-season changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at harvest for both experiments in 2002. Variograms were fitted to the data to describe the spatial characteristics of SCN population densities in both fields at planting and at harvest from 2000 to 2003 and these parameters varied within seasons and during overwinter periods in both experiments. Distinct relationships between temporal and spatial changes in SCN population densities were not detected.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; Hines, J.E.; Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert; Niles, Larry

2000-01-01

Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

Parallel paleogenomic transects reveal complex genetic history of early European farmers

PubMed Central

Lipson, Mark; Szécsényi-Nagy, Anna; Mallick, Swapan; Pósa, Annamária; Stégmár, Balázs; Keerl, Victoria; Rohland, Nadin; Stewardson, Kristin; Ferry, Matthew; Michel, Megan; Oppenheimer, Jonas; Broomandkhoshbacht, Nasreen; Harney, Eadaoin; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Llamas, Bastien; Mende, Balázs Gusztáv; Köhler, Kitti; Oross, Krisztián; Bondár, Mária; Marton, Tibor; Osztás, Anett; Jakucs, János; Paluch, Tibor; Horváth, Ferenc; Csengeri, Piroska; Koós, Judit; Sebők, Katalin; Anders, Alexandra; Raczky, Pál; Regenye, Judit; Barna, Judit P.; Fábián, Szilvia; Serlegi, Gábor; Toldi, Zoltán; Nagy, Emese Gyöngyvér; Dani, János; Molnár, Erika; Pálfi, György; Márk, László; Melegh, Béla; Bánfai, Zsolt; Domboróczki, László; Fernández-Eraso, Javier; Mujika-Alustiza, José Antonio; Fernández, Carmen Alonso; Echevarría, Javier Jiménez; Bollongino, Ruth; Orschiedt, Jörg; Schierhold, Kerstin; Meller, Harald; Cooper, Alan; Burger, Joachim; Bánffy, Eszter; Alt, Kurt W.; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; Haak, Wolfgang; Reich, David

2017-01-01

Ancient DNA studies have established that Neolithic European populations were descended from Anatolian migrants1–8 who received a limited amount of admixture from resident hunter-gatherers3–5,9. Many open questions remain, however, about the spatial and temporal dynamics of population interactions and admixture during the Neolithic period. Using the highest-resolution genome-wide ancient DNA data set assembled to date—a total of 180 samples, 130 newly reported here, from the Neolithic and Chalcolithic of Hungary (6000–2900 BCE, n = 100), Germany (5500–3000 BCE, n = 42), and Spain (5500–2200 BCE, n = 38)—we investigate the population dynamics of Neolithization across Europe. We find that genetic diversity was shaped predominantly by local processes, with varied sources and proportions of hunter-gatherer ancestry among the three regions and through time. Admixture between groups with different ancestry profiles was pervasive and resulted in observable population transformation across almost all cultural transitions. Our results shed new light on the ways that gene flow reshaped European populations throughout the Neolithic period and demonstrate the potential of time-series-based sampling and modeling approaches to elucidate multiple dimensions of historical population interactions. PMID:29144465

A Proposed Dynamic Pressure and Temperature Primary Standard

PubMed Central

Rosasco, Gregory J.; Bean, Vern E.; Hurst, Wilbur S.

1990-01-01

Diatomic gas molecules have a fundamental vibrational motion whose frequency is affected by pressure in a simple way. In addition, these molecules have well defined rotational energy levels whose populations provide a reliable measure of the thermodynamic temperature. Since information concerning the frequency of vibration and the relative populations can be determined by laser spectroscopy, the gas molecules themselves can serve as sensors of pressure and temperature. Through measurements under static conditions, the pressure and temperature dependence of the spectra of selected molecules is now understood. As the time required for the spectroscopic measurement can be reduced to nanoseconds, the diatomic gas molecule is an excellent candidate for a dynamic pressure/temperature primary standard. The temporal response in this case will be limited by the equilibration time for the molecules to respond to changes in local thermodynamic variables. Preliminary feasibility studies suggest that by using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy we will be able to measure dynamic pressure up to 108 Pa and dynamic temperature up to 1500 K with an uncertainty of 5%. PMID:28179756

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

PubMed Central

Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew; Adler, Peter H; Urbanek, Richard P; Barzen, Jeb A

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults. PMID:24340185

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

A dynamic appearance descriptor approach to facial actions temporal modeling.

PubMed

Jiang, Bihan; Valstar, Michel; Martinez, Brais; Pantic, Maja

2014-02-01

Both the configuration and the dynamics of facial expressions are crucial for the interpretation of human facial behavior. Yet to date, the vast majority of reported efforts in the field either do not take the dynamics of facial expressions into account, or focus only on prototypic facial expressions of six basic emotions. Facial dynamics can be explicitly analyzed by detecting the constituent temporal segments in Facial Action Coding System (FACS) Action Units (AUs)-onset, apex, and offset. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicit analysis of temporal dynamics of facial actions using the dynamic appearance descriptor Local Phase Quantization from Three Orthogonal Planes (LPQ-TOP). Temporal segments are detected by combining a discriminative classifier for detecting the temporal segments on a frame-by-frame basis with Markov Models that enforce temporal consistency over the whole episode. The system is evaluated in detail over the MMI facial expression database, the UNBC-McMaster pain database, the SAL database, the GEMEP-FERA dataset in database-dependent experiments, in cross-database experiments using the Cohn-Kanade, and the SEMAINE databases. The comparison with other state-of-the-art methods shows that the proposed LPQ-TOP method outperforms the other approaches for the problem of AU temporal segment detection, and that overall AU activation detection benefits from dynamic appearance information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glaser, D.; Connolly, J.; Berghoffen, A.

The resident bald eagles of the lower Columbia River have lower productivity and higher contaminant levels than other bald eagles of the Pacific Northwest. The primary population stressors are believed to be habitat loss, human disturbance, p,p{prime}DDE, PCBs, dioxins and furans. The primary effect of habitat loss is to reduce the carrying capacity of the region for nesting sites, and the primary effects of human disturbance and contamination by organic compounds are to reduce productivity. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of all of, these potential stressors on the bald eagle population dynamics. A modelmore » of the population dynamics was developed. The model structure includes a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) submodel to estimate the degree of contamination, which is linked via a toxicology submodel to a population dynamics submodel. The PBTK submodel is time-variable, incorporating species-specific bioenergetics, as well as contaminant assimilation and excretion rates for each compound of interest. Calculated body burdens and egg concentrations for each compound account for spatial and temporal variations in feeding habits and prey contaminant levels. The population submodel includes fecundity and survival information, as well as a limit to the number of breeding pairs (carrying capacity) and a population of non-breeding subadults and adults (floaters). Model simulations are performed in a Monte Carlo framework. Results include estimates of the persistence, resistance and resilience of the population: the probability of extinction, the relationship between magnitude of stress and change in population size, and the time course of recovery of a population following a reduction in stress.« less

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.

PubMed

Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A

2018-08-14

We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics.

PubMed

Gudmundson, Sara; Eklöf, Anna; Wennergren, Uno

2015-08-07

How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species-species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment. © 2015 The Author(s).

Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gudmundson, Sara; Eklöf, Anna; Wennergren, Uno

2015-01-01

How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species–species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment. PMID:26224705

Annual changes in seasonal river water temperatures in the eastern and western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Midway, Stephen R.; Whittier, Joanna B.; DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Changes in river water temperatures are anticipated to have direct effects on thermal habitat and fish population vital rates, and therefore, understanding temporal trends in water temperatures may be necessary for predicting changes in thermal habitat and how species might respond to such changes. However, many investigations into trends in water temperatures use regression methods that assume long-term monotonic changes in temperature, when in fact changes are likely to be nonmonotonic. Therefore, our objective was to highlight the need and provide an example of an analytical method to better quantify the short-term, nonmonotonic temporal changes in thermal habitat that are likely necessary to determine the effects of changing thermal conditions on fish populations and communities. To achieve this objective, this study uses Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) to examine seasonal trends in river water temperatures from sites located in the eastern and western United States, regions that have dramatically different riverine habitats and fish communities. We estimated the annual rate of change in water temperature and found little evidence of seasonal changes in water temperatures in the eastern U.S. We found more evidence of warming for river sites located in the western U.S., particularly during the fall and winter seasons. Use of DLMs provided a more detailed view of temporal dynamics in river thermal habitat compared to more traditional methods by quantifying year-to-year changes and associated uncertainty, providing managers with the information needed to adapt decision making to short-term changes in habitat conditions that may be necessary for conserving aquatic resources in the face of a changing climate.

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan P.; Ellison, Stephen; Pyare, Sanjay; Tallmon, David

2015-01-01

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities.

PubMed

Frelat, Romain; Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

The Effect of Dynamic Pitch on Speech Recognition in Temporally Modulated Noise.

PubMed

Shen, Jing; Souza, Pamela E

2017-09-18

This study investigated the effect of dynamic pitch in target speech on older and younger listeners' speech recognition in temporally modulated noise. First, we examined whether the benefit from dynamic-pitch cues depends on the temporal modulation of noise. Second, we tested whether older listeners can benefit from dynamic-pitch cues for speech recognition in noise. Last, we explored the individual factors that predict the amount of dynamic-pitch benefit for speech recognition in noise. Younger listeners with normal hearing and older listeners with varying levels of hearing sensitivity participated in the study, in which speech reception thresholds were measured with sentences in nonspeech noise. The younger listeners benefited more from dynamic pitch for speech recognition in temporally modulated noise than unmodulated noise. Older listeners were able to benefit from the dynamic-pitch cues but received less benefit from noise modulation than the younger listeners. For those older listeners with hearing loss, the amount of hearing loss strongly predicted the dynamic-pitch benefit for speech recognition in noise. Dynamic-pitch cues aid speech recognition in noise, particularly when noise has temporal modulation. Hearing loss negatively affects the dynamic-pitch benefit to older listeners with significant hearing loss.

The Effect of Dynamic Pitch on Speech Recognition in Temporally Modulated Noise

PubMed Central

Souza, Pamela E.

2017-01-01

Purpose This study investigated the effect of dynamic pitch in target speech on older and younger listeners' speech recognition in temporally modulated noise. First, we examined whether the benefit from dynamic-pitch cues depends on the temporal modulation of noise. Second, we tested whether older listeners can benefit from dynamic-pitch cues for speech recognition in noise. Last, we explored the individual factors that predict the amount of dynamic-pitch benefit for speech recognition in noise. Method Younger listeners with normal hearing and older listeners with varying levels of hearing sensitivity participated in the study, in which speech reception thresholds were measured with sentences in nonspeech noise. Results The younger listeners benefited more from dynamic pitch for speech recognition in temporally modulated noise than unmodulated noise. Older listeners were able to benefit from the dynamic-pitch cues but received less benefit from noise modulation than the younger listeners. For those older listeners with hearing loss, the amount of hearing loss strongly predicted the dynamic-pitch benefit for speech recognition in noise. Conclusions Dynamic-pitch cues aid speech recognition in noise, particularly when noise has temporal modulation. Hearing loss negatively affects the dynamic-pitch benefit to older listeners with significant hearing loss. PMID:28800370

Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

PubMed Central

Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Hemmer-Hansen, Jakob; Hedeholm, Rasmus Berg; Wisz, Mary S; Pampoulie, Christophe; Meldrup, Dorte; Bonanomi, Sara; Retzel, Anja; Olsen, Steffen Malskær; Nielsen, Einar Eg

2013-01-01

Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78-year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts. PMID:23789034

Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

PubMed

Therkildsen, Nina Overgaard; Hemmer-Hansen, Jakob; Hedeholm, Rasmus Berg; Wisz, Mary S; Pampoulie, Christophe; Meldrup, Dorte; Bonanomi, Sara; Retzel, Anja; Olsen, Steffen Malskær; Nielsen, Einar Eg

2013-06-01

Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78-year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts.

Spatial and temporal optimization in habitat placement for a threatened plant: the case of the western prairie fringed orchid

Treesearch

John Hof; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael Bevers

1999-01-01

This paper investigates an optimization approach to determining the placement and timing of habitat protection for the western prairie fringed orchid. This plant’s population dynamics are complex, creating a challenging optimization problem. The sensitivity of the orchid to random climate conditions is handled probabilistically. The plant’s seed, protocorm and above-...

Ciliates and the rare biosphere-community ecology and population dynamics.

PubMed

Weisse, Thomas

2014-01-01

Application of deep sequencing technologies to environmental samples and some detailed morphological studies suggest that there is a vast, yet unexplored rare ciliate biosphere, tentatively defined in terms of operational taxonomic units. However, very few studies complemented molecular and phylogenetic data with morphological and ecological descriptions of the species inventory. This is mainly because the sampling effort increases strongly with decreasing species abundance. In spite of this limited knowledge, it is clear that species that are rare under certain environmental conditions (temporal rare biosphere) may become abundant when the physical, chemical, and biological variables of their habitat change. Furthermore, some species may always be present in low numbers if their dispersal rates are exceedingly high (accidental rare biosphere). An intriguing question is whether there are some species that are always rare, i.e., in every suitable environment. This permanent rare biosphere is conceptually different from the temporal rare biosphere. This review characterizes typical aquatic habitats of the rare ciliate biosphere, portrays different scenarios under which some or even many species may be permanently rare (background fauna), and identifies some fundamental questions that need to be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the population dynamics of the rare ciliate biosphere. © 2014 The Authors The Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society of Protistologists.

Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics.

PubMed

Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Bjørnstad, O N; Grenfell, B T; Rohani, P

2010-05-06

Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult to measure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-series methods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measles mortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered model to measles mortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

Integrative studies of cultural evolution: crossing disciplinary boundaries to produce new insights

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Culture evolves according to dynamics on multiple temporal scales, from individuals' minute-by-minute behaviour to millennia of cultural accumulation that give rise to population-level differences. These dynamics act on a range of entities—including behavioural sequences, ideas and artefacts as well as individuals, populations and whole species—and involve mechanisms at multiple levels, from neurons in brains to inter-population interactions. Studying such complex phenomena requires an integration of perspectives from a diverse array of fields, as well as bridging gaps between traditionally disparate areas of study. In this article, which also serves as an introduction to the current special issue, we highlight some specific respects in which the study of cultural evolution has benefited and should continue to benefit from an integrative approach. We showcase a number of pioneering studies of cultural evolution that bring together numerous disciplines. These studies illustrate the value of perspectives from different fields for understanding cultural evolution, such as cognitive science and neuroanatomy, behavioural ecology, population dynamics, and evolutionary genetics. They also underscore the importance of understanding cultural processes when interpreting research about human genetics, neuroscience, behaviour and evolution. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution’. PMID:29440515

Pathogen dynamics during invasion and establishment of white-nose syndrome explain mechanisms of host persistence.

PubMed

Frick, Winifred F; Cheng, Tina L; Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Janicki, Amanda F; Parise, Katy L; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-03-01

Disease dynamics during pathogen invasion and establishment determine the impacts of disease on host populations and determine the mechanisms of host persistence. Temporal progression of prevalence and infection intensity illustrate whether tolerance, resistance, reduced transmission, or demographic compensation allow initially declining populations to persist. We measured infection dynamics of the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans that causes white-nose syndrome in bats by estimating pathogen prevalence and load in seven bat species at 167 hibernacula over a decade as the pathogen invaded, became established, and some host populations stabilized. Fungal loads increased rapidly and prevalence rose to nearly 100% at most sites within 2 yr of invasion in six of seven species. Prevalence and loads did not decline over time despite huge reductions in colony sizes, likely due to an extensive environmental reservoir. However, there was substantial variation in fungal load among sites with persisting colonies, suggesting that both tolerance and resistance developed at different sites in the same species. In contrast, one species disappeared from hibernacula within 3 yr of pathogen invasion. Variable host responses to pathogen invasion require different management strategies to prevent disease-induced extinction and to facilitate evolution of tolerance or resistance in persisting populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Integrative studies of cultural evolution: crossing disciplinary boundaries to produce new insights.

PubMed

Kolodny, Oren; Feldman, Marcus W; Creanza, Nicole

2018-04-05

Culture evolves according to dynamics on multiple temporal scales, from individuals' minute-by-minute behaviour to millennia of cultural accumulation that give rise to population-level differences. These dynamics act on a range of entities-including behavioural sequences, ideas and artefacts as well as individuals, populations and whole species-and involve mechanisms at multiple levels, from neurons in brains to inter-population interactions. Studying such complex phenomena requires an integration of perspectives from a diverse array of fields, as well as bridging gaps between traditionally disparate areas of study. In this article, which also serves as an introduction to the current special issue, we highlight some specific respects in which the study of cultural evolution has benefited and should continue to benefit from an integrative approach. We showcase a number of pioneering studies of cultural evolution that bring together numerous disciplines. These studies illustrate the value of perspectives from different fields for understanding cultural evolution, such as cognitive science and neuroanatomy, behavioural ecology, population dynamics, and evolutionary genetics. They also underscore the importance of understanding cultural processes when interpreting research about human genetics, neuroscience, behaviour and evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

The phenology of space: Spatial aspects of bison density dependence in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taper, M.L.; Meagher, M.; Jerde, C.L.

2000-01-01

The Yellowstone bison represent the only bison population in the United States that survived in the wild the near-extermination of the late 1800's. This paper capitalizes on a unique opportunity provided by the record of the bison population of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). This population has been intensely monitored for almost four decades. The analysis of long-term spatio-temporal data from 1970-1997 supports the following conclusions. 1) Even though the Yellowstone bison herd exhibits an extended period of what appears to be linear growth, this pattern can be explained with classical density dependent dynamics if one realizes that perhaps the primary response of the herd to increased density is range expansion. 2) Several spatial aspects of social behavior in the YNP bison may be behavioral adaptations by the bison to environmental changes. These behavioral strategies may buffer, temporarily at least, bison population dynamics from the immediate repercussions of possible environmental stress and habitat deterioration. 3) Bison ecological carrying capacity for YNP is on the order of 2800 to 3200 animals. 4) There do appear to be indications of changes in the bison dynamics that are associated with increasing use of sections of the interior road system in winter. 5) The possibility of habitat degradation is indicated.

Restoration of oyster reefs in an estuarine lake: population dynamics and shell accretion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casas, Sandra M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; La Peyre, Megan K.

2015-01-01

Restoration activities inherently depend on understanding the spatial and temporal variation in basic demographic rates of the species of interest. For species that modify and maintain their own habitat such as the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, understanding demographic rates and their impacts on population and habitat success are crucial to ensuring restoration success. We measured oyster recruitment, density, size distribution, biomass, mortality and Perkinsus marinus infection intensity quarterly for 3 yr on shallow intertidal reefs created with shell cultch in March 2009. All reefs were located within Sister Lake, LA. Reefs were placed in pairs at 3 different locations within the lake; pairs were placed in low and medium energy sites within each location. Restored reefs placed within close proximity (<8 km) experienced very different development trajectories; there was high inter-site and inter-annual variation in recruitment and mortality of oysters, with only slight variation in growth curves. Despite this high variation in population dynamics, all reefs supported dense oyster populations (728 ± 102 ind. m-2) and high live oyster biomass (>14.6 kg m-2) at the end of 3 yr. Shell accretion, on average, exceeded estimated rates required to keep pace with local subsidence and shell loss. Variation in recruitment, growth and survival drives local site-specific population success, which highlights the need to understand local water quality, hydrodynamics, and metapopulation dynamics when planning restoration.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

PubMed Central

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-01-01

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

How many Coccolithovirus genotypes does it take to terminate an Emiliania huxleyi bloom?

PubMed

Highfield, Andrea; Evans, Claire; Walne, Anthony; Miller, Peter I; Schroeder, Declan C

2014-10-01

Giant viruses are known to be significant mortality agents of phytoplankton, often being implicated in the terminations of large Emiliania huxleyi blooms. We have previously shown the high temporal variability of E. huxleyi-infecting coccolithoviruses (EhVs) within a Norwegian fjord mesocosm. In the current study we investigated EhV dynamics within a naturally-occurring E. huxleyi bloom in the Western English Channel. Using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and marker gene sequencing, we uncovered a spatially highly dynamic Coccolithovirus population that was associated with a genetically stable E. huxleyi population as revealed by the major capsid protein gene (mcp) and coccolith morphology motif (CMM), respectively. Coccolithoviruses within the bloom were found to be variable with depth and unique virus populations were detected at different stations sampled indicating a complex network of EhV-host infections. This ultimately will have significant implications to the internal structure and longevity of ecologically important E. huxleyi blooms. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata: model structure and validation for the Turkish context

PubMed Central

SUTTON, A. J.; KARAGENC, T.; BAKIRCI, S.; SARALI, H.; PEKEL, G.; MEDLEY, G. F.

2012-01-01

SUMMARY A mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata is proposed that consists of 2 host components: the Hyalomma tick population and a compartmental model of T. annulata infection in the cattle population. The model was parameterized using data describing tick infestation and the infection status of cattle in Turkey from 2006 to 2008. The tick attachment rates are highly seasonal and because of the temporal separation of infectious and susceptible ticks virtually all ticks are infected by carrier cattle, so that annual peaks of disease in cattle do not impact on infection in the Hyalomma tick population. The impact of intervention measures that target the tick population both on the host and in the environment and their impact on the transmission of T. annulata were investigated. Interventions that have a limited ‘one-off’ impact and interventions that have a more permanent impact were both considered. The results from the model show the importance of targeting ticks during the period when they have left their first host as nymphs but have yet to feed on their second host. PMID:22309815

Biogeography of the Sulfolobus islandicus pan-genome

PubMed Central

Reno, Michael L.; Held, Nicole L.; Fields, Christopher J.; Burke, Patricia V.; Whitaker, Rachel J.

2009-01-01

Variation in gene content has been hypothesized to be the primary mode of adaptive evolution in microorganisms; however, very little is known about the spatial and temporal distribution of variable genes. Through population-scale comparative genomics of 7 Sulfolobus islandicus genomes from 3 locations, we demonstrate the biogeographical structure of the pan-genome of this species, with no evidence of gene flow between geographically isolated populations. The evolutionary independence of each population allowed us to assess genome dynamics over very recent evolutionary time, beginning ≈910,000 years ago. On this time scale, genome variation largely consists of recent strain-specific integration of mobile elements. Localized sectors of parallel gene loss are identified; however, the balance between the gain and loss of genetic material suggests that S. islandicus genomes acquire material slowly over time, primarily from closely related Sulfolobus species. Examination of the genome dynamics through population genomics in S. islandicus exposes the process of allopatric speciation in thermophilic Archaea and brings us closer to a generalized framework for understanding microbial genome evolution in a spatial context. PMID:19435847

Study on the Characteristics and Impacts of the Spatial-temporal Urban Sprawl in Chinese Coastal Cities using Ocelet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Lo Seen, D.; Zhang, Z.

2015-12-01

The urban population is expected to rise 67% in developing countries and 86% in developed regions by 2050. As the most populous country in the world, China has been experiencing a remarkable urbanization process since the initialization of the reform and opening-up policies in the late 1970s. During the past several decades, the coastal zone undergone the highest urbanization and motst rapid economic development in China. Accurately understanding the characteristics of the spatial-temporal urban sprawl is helpful for urban planning on optimal land use in the future. Ocelet is an interactive visual interpretation and dynamic coding method that has been designed for studying issues related to space, time and multiple scales that are raised when dynamic landscapes are modelled. Using Ocelet, we aim to study the characteristics of the spatial-temporal urban sprawl in thirteen major Chinese coastal cities and how urban sprawl affects the surrounding land changes. Landsat MSS/TM/ETM/OLI, the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) and Chinese HJ-1A data are adopted to acquire urban built-up areas and their dynamic changes from 1979 to 2013. The results show that the urban built-up area increased gradually from 1979 to 2002 (~105 km²/yr), then accelerated about four times from 2002 to 2010 (~396 km²/yr) in thirteen major Chinese coastal cities. Although the expansion slowed down since 2010, the urban built-up area still increased at a fairly high rate (~210 km²/yr) from 2010 to 2013. The urban sprawl speed and pattern in each coastal city has also been analyzed, and has been grouped in three costal zones geographically. As a result of urban sprawl, large areas of arable land, rural settlements and forests were lost in these coastal cities. The lost non-urban land types and areas are different in the three costal zones and quantified respectively.

Exploring the structure and function of temporal networks with dynamic graphlets

PubMed Central

Hulovatyy, Y.; Chen, H.; Milenković, T.

2015-01-01

Motivation: With increasing availability of temporal real-world networks, how to efficiently study these data? One can model a temporal network as a single aggregate static network, or as a series of time-specific snapshots, each being an aggregate static network over the corresponding time window. Then, one can use established methods for static analysis on the resulting aggregate network(s), but losing in the process valuable temporal information either completely, or at the interface between different snapshots, respectively. Here, we develop a novel approach for studying a temporal network more explicitly, by capturing inter-snapshot relationships. Results: We base our methodology on well-established graphlets (subgraphs), which have been proven in numerous contexts in static network research. We develop new theory to allow for graphlet-based analyses of temporal networks. Our new notion of dynamic graphlets is different from existing dynamic network approaches that are based on temporal motifs (statistically significant subgraphs). The latter have limitations: their results depend on the choice of a null network model that is required to evaluate the significance of a subgraph, and choosing a good null model is non-trivial. Our dynamic graphlets overcome the limitations of the temporal motifs. Also, when we aim to characterize the structure and function of an entire temporal network or of individual nodes, our dynamic graphlets outperform the static graphlets. Clearly, accounting for temporal information helps. We apply dynamic graphlets to temporal age-specific molecular network data to deepen our limited knowledge about human aging. Availability and implementation: http://www.nd.edu/∼cone/DG. Contact: tmilenko@nd.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26072480

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity. PMID:28060865

Dynamic CRM occupancy reflects a temporal map of developmental progression.

PubMed

Wilczyński, Bartek; Furlong, Eileen E M

2010-06-22

Development is driven by tightly coordinated spatio-temporal patterns of gene expression, which are initiated through the action of transcription factors (TFs) binding to cis-regulatory modules (CRMs). Although many studies have investigated how spatial patterns arise, precise temporal control of gene expression is less well understood. Here, we show that dynamic changes in the timing of CRM occupancy is a prevalent feature common to all TFs examined in a developmental ChIP time course to date. CRMs exhibit complex binding patterns that cannot be explained by the sequence motifs or expression of the TFs themselves. The temporal changes in TF binding are highly correlated with dynamic patterns of target gene expression, which in turn reflect transitions in cellular function during different stages of development. Thus, it is not only the timing of a TF's expression, but also its temporal occupancy in refined time windows, which determines temporal gene expression. Systematic measurement of dynamic CRM occupancy may therefore serve as a powerful method to decode dynamic changes in gene expression driving developmental progression.

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif C.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Zhou, Jie; Yang, Jun; Sang, Shaowei; Wang, Ming; Yang, Zhicong; Yan, Ziqiang; Jiang, Tong; Lu, Liang; Yue, Yujuan; Liu, Xiaobo; Lin, Hualiang; Xu, Jianguo; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2017-01-01

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies. PMID:27940911

Recombination dynamics of optically excited charge carriers in bulk MoS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Völzer, Tim; Lütgens, Matthias; Fennel, Franziska; Lochbrunner, Stefan

2017-10-01

Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs), such as MoS2, are promising candidates for optoelectronic or catalytic applications. On that account, a detailed characterization of the electronic dynamics in these materials is of pivotal importance. Here, we investigate the temporal evolution of an excited carrier population by all-optical pump-probe spectroscopy. On the sub-picosecond time scale we observe thermal relaxation of the excited carriers by electron-phonon coupling. The dynamics on the nanosecond time scale can be understood in terms of defect-assisted Auger recombination over a broad carrier density regime spanning more than one order of magnitude. Hence, our results emphasize the importance of defect states for electronic processes in TMDCs at room temperature.

Spatio-Temporal Interdependence of Bacteria and Phytoplankton during a Baltic Sea Spring Bloom

PubMed Central

Bunse, Carina; Bertos-Fortis, Mireia; Sassenhagen, Ingrid; Sildever, Sirje; Sjöqvist, Conny; Godhe, Anna; Gross, Susanna; Kremp, Anke; Lips, Inga; Lundholm, Nina; Rengefors, Karin; Sefbom, Josefin; Pinhassi, Jarone; Legrand, Catherine

2016-01-01

In temperate systems, phytoplankton spring blooms deplete inorganic nutrients and are major sources of organic matter for the microbial loop. In response to phytoplankton exudates and environmental factors, heterotrophic microbial communities are highly dynamic and change their abundance and composition both on spatial and temporal scales. Yet, most of our understanding about these processes comes from laboratory model organism studies, mesocosm experiments or single temporal transects. Spatial-temporal studies examining interactions of phytoplankton blooms and bacterioplankton community composition and function, though being highly informative, are scarce. In this study, pelagic microbial community dynamics (bacteria and phytoplankton) and environmental variables were monitored during a spring bloom across the Baltic Proper (two cruises between North Germany to Gulf of Finland). To test to what extent bacterioplankton community composition relates to the spring bloom, we used next generation amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, phytoplankton diversity analysis based on microscopy counts and population genotyping of the dominating diatom Skeletonema marinoi. Several phytoplankton bloom related and environmental variables were identified to influence bacterial community composition. Members of Bacteroidetes and Alphaproteobacteria dominated the bacterial community composition but the bacterial groups showed no apparent correlation with direct bloom related variables. The less abundant bacterial phyla Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, and Verrucomicrobia, on the other hand, were strongly associated with phytoplankton biomass, diatom:dinoflagellate ratio, and colored dissolved organic matter (cDOM). Many bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) showed high niche specificities. For example, particular Bacteroidetes OTUs were associated with two distinct genetic clusters of S. marinoi. Our study revealed the complexity of interactions of bacterial taxa with inter- and intraspecific genetic variation in phytoplankton. Overall, our findings imply that biotic and abiotic factors during spring bloom influence bacterial community dynamics in a hierarchical manner. PMID:27148206

Importance of Local and Regional Scales in Shaping Mycobacterial Abundance in Freshwater Lakes.

PubMed

Roguet, Adélaïde; Therial, Claire; Catherine, Arnaud; Bressy, Adèle; Varrault, Gilles; Bouhdamane, Lila; Tran, Viet; Lemaire, Bruno J; Vincon-Leite, Brigitte; Saad, Mohamed; Moulin, Laurent; Lucas, Françoise S

2018-05-01

Biogeographical studies considering the entire bacterial community may underestimate mechanisms of bacterial assemblages at lower taxonomic levels. In this context, the study aimed to identify factors affecting the spatial and temporal dynamic of the Mycobacterium, a genus widespread in aquatic ecosystems. Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) density variations were quantified in the water column of freshwater lakes at the regional scale (annual monitoring of 49 lakes in the Paris area) and at the local scale (2-year monthly monitoring in Créteil Lake) by real-time quantitative PCR targeting the atpE gene. At the regional scale, mycobacteria densities in water samples ranged from 6.7 × 10 3 to 1.9 × 10 8 genome units per liter. Density variations were primarily explained by water pH, labile iron, and dispersal processes through the connection of the lakes to a river. In Créteil Lake, no spatial variation of mycobacterial densities was noticed over the 2-year monthly survey, except after large rainfall events. Indeed, storm sewer effluents locally and temporarily increased NTM densities in the water column. The temporal dynamic of the NTM densities in Créteil Lake was associated with suspended solid concentrations. No clear seasonal variation was noticed despite a shift in NTM densities observed over the 2012-2013 winter. Temporal NTM densities fluctuations were well predicted by the neutral community model, suggesting a random balance between loss and gain of mycobacterial taxa within Créteil Lake. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales for understanding the spatio-temporal dynamic of bacterial populations in natural environments.

Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil

PubMed Central

Lewnard, Joseph A.; Jirmanus, Lara; Júnior, Nivison Nery; Machado, Paulo R.; Glesby, Marshall J.; Ko, Albert I.; Carvalho, Edgar M.; Schriefer, Albert; Weinberger, Daniel M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. Significance These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets. PMID:25356734

Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.

PubMed

Lewnard, Joseph A; Jirmanus, Lara; Júnior, Nivison Nery; Machado, Paulo R; Glesby, Marshall J; Ko, Albert I; Carvalho, Edgar M; Schriefer, Albert; Weinberger, Daniel M

2014-10-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.

A dynamic life table model of Psorophora columbiae in the southern Louisiana rice agroecosystem with supporting hydrologic submodel. Part 1. Analysis of literature and model development.

PubMed

Focks, D A; McLaughlin, R E; Smith, B M

1988-09-01

During the past decade, the rice agroecosystem and its associated mosquitoes have been the subject of an extensive research effort directed toward the development and implementation of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. The objective of this work was to synthesize the literature and unpublished data on the rice agroecosystem into a comprehensive simulation model of the key elements of the system known to influence the population dynamics of Psorophora columbiae. Subsequent companion papers will present a validation of these models, provide an in-depth analysis of the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae, and evaluate current and proposed IPM strategies for this mosquito. This paper describes the development of 2 models: WaterMod: Because spatial and temporal distributions of surface water and soil moisture play a decisive role in the dynamics of Ps. columbiae, an essentially hydrological simulator was developed. Its purpose is to provide environmental inputs for a second model (PcSim) which simulates the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae. WaterMod utilizes data on weather, agricultural practices, and soil characteristics for a particular region to generate a data set containing daily estimates of soil moisture and depth of water table for 12 representative areas comprising the rice agroecosystem. This model could be used to provide hydrologic inputs for additional simulation models of other riceland mosquito species. PcSim: This model simulates the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae by using the computer to maintain a daily accounting of the absolute number of mosquitoes within each daily age class for each life stage. The model creates estimates of the number of eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults for a representative l-ha area of a rice agroecosystem.

Individual-based approach to epidemic processes on arbitrary dynamic contact networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Luis E. C.; Masuda, Naoki

2016-08-01

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We develop an individual-based approximation for the susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model applicable to arbitrary dynamic networks. Our framework provides, at the individual-level, the probability flow over time associated with the infection dynamics. This computationally efficient framework discards the correlation between the states of different nodes, yet provides accurate results in approximating direct numerical simulations. It naturally captures the temporal heterogeneities and correlations of contact sequences, fundamental ingredients regulating the timing and size of an epidemic outbreak, and the number of secondary infections. The high accuracy of our approximation further allows us to detect the index individual of an epidemic outbreak in real-life network data.

Local adaptation in transgenerational responses to predators

PubMed Central

Walsh, Matthew R.; Castoe, Todd; Holmes, Julian; Packer, Michelle; Biles, Kelsey; Walsh, Melissa; Munch, Stephan B.; Post, David M.

2016-01-01

Environmental signals can induce phenotypic changes that span multiple generations. Along with phenotypic responses that occur during development (i.e. ‘within-generation’ plasticity), such ‘transgenerational plasticity’ (TGP) has been documented in a diverse array of taxa spanning many environmental perturbations. New theory predicts that temporal stability is a key driver of the evolution of TGP. We tested this prediction using natural populations of zooplankton from lakes in Connecticut that span a large gradient in the temporal dynamics of predator-induced mortality. We reared more than 120 clones of Daphnia ambigua from nine lakes for multiple generations in the presence/absence of predator cues. We found that temporal variation in mortality selects for within-generation plasticity while consistently strong (or weak) mortality selects for increased TGP. Such results provide us the first evidence for local adaptation in TGP and argue that divergent ecological conditions select for phenotypic responses within and across generations. PMID:26817775

Temporal and spatial variability of dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus, and metrics of phosphorus bioavailability in an upwelling-dominated coastal system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruttenberg, Kathleen C.; Dyhrman, Sonya T.

2005-10-01

High-frequency temporal and spatial shifts in the various dissolved P pools (total, inorganic, and organic) are linked to upwelling/relaxation events and to phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the upwelling-dominated Oregon coastal system. The presence and regulation of alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) is apparent in the bulk phytoplankton population and in studies of cell-specific APA using Enzyme Labeled Fluorescence (ELF®). Spatial and temporal variability are also evident in phytoplankton community composition and in APA. The spatial pattern of dissolved phosphorus and APA variability can be explained by bottom-controlled patterns of upwelling, and flushing times of different regions within the study area. The presence of APA in eukaryotic taxa indicates that dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) may contribute to phytoplankton P nutrition in this system, highlighting the need for a more complete understanding of P cycling and bioavailability in the coastal ocean.

How Ebola impacts genetics of Western lowland gorilla populations.

PubMed

Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Vallet, Dominique; David, Laetitia; Bermejo, Magdalena; Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Petit, Eric J; Ménard, Nelly

2009-12-18

Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife are major threats for both human health and biodiversity conservation. Infectious diseases can have serious consequences for the genetic diversity of populations, which could enhance the species' extinction probability. The Ebola epizootic in western and central Africa induced more than 90% mortality in Western lowland gorilla population. Although mortality rates are very high, the impacts of Ebola on genetic diversity of Western lowland gorilla have never been assessed. We carried out long term studies of three populations of Western lowland gorilla in the Republic of the Congo (Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Lossi gorilla sanctuary both affected by Ebola and Lossi's periphery not affected). Using 17 microsatellite loci, we compared genetic diversity and structure of the populations and estimate their effective size before and after Ebola outbreaks. Despite the effective size decline in both populations, we did not detect loss in genetic diversity after the epizootic. We revealed temporal changes in allele frequencies in the smallest population. Immigration and short time elapsed since outbreaks could explain the conservation of genetic diversity after the demographic crash. Temporal changes in allele frequencies could not be explained by genetic drift or random sampling. Immigration from genetically differentiated populations and a non random mortality induced by Ebola, i.e., selective pressure and cost of sociality, are alternative hypotheses. Understanding the influence of Ebola on gorilla genetic dynamics is of paramount importance for human health, primate evolution and conservation biology.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf: Understanding drivers of fleet behavior and the implications for future management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockrell, M.; Murawski, S. A.; Sanchirico, J. N.; O'Farrell, S.; Strelcheck, A.

2016-02-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fishing activity have historically been described over relatively coarse scales or with limited datasets. However, new and innovative approaches for fisheries management will require an understanding of both species population dynamics and fleet behavior at finer spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we describe the spatial and temporal patterns of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) from 2006-14, using a combination of on-board observer, catch logbook, and vessel satellite tracking data. The satellite tracking data is both high resolution (ie, records from each vessel at least once every hour for the duration of a trip), and required of all federally-permitted reef fish vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, making this a uniquely rich and powerful dataset. Along with spatial and temporal fishery dynamics, we quantified concomitant patterns in fishery economics and catch metrics, such as total landings and catch composition. Fishery patterns were correlated to a number of variables across the vessel, trip, and whole fleet scales, including vessel size, distance from home port, number of days at sea, and days available to fish. Notably, changes in management structure during the years examined (eg, establishment of a seasonal closed area in 2009 and implementation of an individual fishing quota system for Grouper-Tilefish in 2010), as well as emergency spatial closures during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, enabled us to examine the impacts of specific management frameworks on the WFS reef-fish fishery. This research highlights the need to better understand the biological, economic, and social impacts within fisheries when managing for conservation and fisheries sustainability. We discuss our results in the context of a changing policy and management landscape for marine and coastal resources in the Gulf of Mexico.

Dynamics of newly established elk populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

2007-01-01

The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

A guide to calculating habitat-quality metrics to inform conservation of highly mobile species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bieri, Joanna A.; Sample, Christine; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Earl, Julia E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Federico, Paula; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Semmens, Darius J.; Skraber, T.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J.

2018-01-01

Many metrics exist for quantifying the relative value of habitats and pathways used by highly mobile species. Properly selecting and applying such metrics requires substantial background in mathematics and understanding the relevant management arena. To address this multidimensional challenge, we demonstrate and compare three measurements of habitat quality: graph-, occupancy-, and demographic-based metrics. Each metric provides insights into system dynamics, at the expense of increasing amounts and complexity of data and models. Our descriptions and comparisons of diverse habitat-quality metrics provide means for practitioners to overcome the modeling challenges associated with management or conservation of such highly mobile species. Whereas previous guidance for applying habitat-quality metrics has been scattered in diversified tracks of literature, we have brought this information together into an approachable format including accessible descriptions and a modeling case study for a typical example that conservation professionals can adapt for their own decision contexts and focal populations.Considerations for Resource ManagersManagement objectives, proposed actions, data availability and quality, and model assumptions are all relevant considerations when applying and interpreting habitat-quality metrics.Graph-based metrics answer questions related to habitat centrality and connectivity, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify basic spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require the least data.Occupancy-based metrics answer questions about likelihood of persistence or colonization, are suitable for populations that undergo localized extinctions, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require a moderate amount of data.Demographic-based metrics answer questions about relative or absolute population size, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify demographic processes and population dynamics, and require the most data.More real-world examples applying occupancy-based, agent-based, and continuous-based metrics to seasonally migratory species are needed to better understand challenges and opportunities for applying these metrics more broadly.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O.; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs. PMID:29136658

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J

2015-03-01

Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Cytonuclear genetics of experimental fish hybrid zones inside Biosphere 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Avise, John C.

1994-01-01

Two species of mosquitofish (family Poeciliidae) known to hybridize in nature were introduced into freshwater habitats inside Biosphere 2, and their population genetics were monitored after 2 years. Within four to six generations, nuclear and cytoplasmic markers characteristic of Gambusia holbrooki had risen greatly in frequency, although some Gambusia affinis alleles and haplotypes were retained primarily in recombinant genotypes, indicative of introgressive hybridization. The temporal cytonuclear dynamics proved similar to population genetic changes observed in replicated experimental hybrid populations outside of Biosphere 2, thus indicating strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes across the range of environments monitored. When interpreted in the context of species-specific population demographies observed previously, results suggest that the extremely rapid evolution in these zones of secondary contact is attributable primarily to species differences in life-history traits.

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Analysis of the Mediterranean fruit fly [Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann)] spatio-temporal distribution in relation to sex and female mating status for precision IPM

PubMed Central

Tabilio, Maria Rosaria; Lampazzi, Elena; Ceccaroli, Claudio; Colacci, Marco; Trematerra, Pasquale

2018-01-01

The Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), is a key pest of fruit crops in many tropical, subtropical and mild temperate areas worldwide. The economic importance of this fruit fly is increasing due to its invasion of new geographical areas. Efficient control and eradication efforts require adequate information regarding C. capitata adults in relation to environmental and physiological cues. This would allow effective characterisation of the population spatio-temporal dynamic of the C. capitata population at both the orchard level and the area-wide landscape. The aim of this study was to analyse population patterns of adult medflies caught using two trapping systems in a peach orchard located in central Italy. They were differentiated by adult sex (males or females) and mating status of females (unmated or mated females) to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic and evaluate the effect of cultivar and chemical treatments on trap catches. Female mating status was assessed by spermathecal dissection and a blind test was carried out to evaluate the reliability of the technique. Geostatistical methods, variogram and kriging, were used to produce distributional maps. Results showed a strong correlation between the distribution of males and unmated females, whereas males versus mated females and unmated females versus mated females showed a lower correlation. Both cultivar and chemical treatments had significant effects on trap catches, showing associations with sex and female mating status. Medfly adults showed aggregated distributions in the experimental field, but hot spots locations varied. The spatial pattern of unmated females reflected that of males, whereas mated females were largely distributed around ripening or ripe fruit. The results give relevant insights into pest management. Mated females may be distributed differently to unmated females and the identification of male hot spots through monitoring would allow localisation of virgin female populations. Based on our results, a more precise IPM strategy, coupled with effective sanitation practices, could represent a more effective approach to medfly control. PMID:29617420

Benefiting from a migratory prey: spatio-temporal patterns in allochthonous subsidization of an Arctic predator.

PubMed

Giroux, Marie-Andrée; Berteaux, Dominique; Lecomte, Nicolas; Gauthier, Gilles; Szor, Guillaume; Bêty, Joël

2012-05-01

1. Flows of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries have the potential to subsidize consumer populations and modify the dynamics of food webs, but how spatio-temporal variations in autochthonous and allochthonous resources affect consumers' subsidization remains largely unexplored. 2. We studied spatio-temporal patterns in the allochthonous subsidization of a predator living in a relatively simple ecosystem. We worked on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), where arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus L.) feed preferentially on lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Traill), and alternatively on colonial greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus L.). Geese migrate annually from their wintering grounds (where they feed on farmlands and marshes) to the Canadian Arctic, thus generating a strong flow of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries. 3. We examined the influence of spatial variations in availability of geese on the diet of fox cubs (2003-2005) and on fox reproductive output (1996-2005) during different phases of the lemming cycle. 4. Using stable isotope analysis and a simple statistical routine developed to analyse the outputs of a multisource mixing model (SIAR), we showed that the contribution of geese to the diet of arctic fox cubs decreased with distance from the goose colony. 5. The probability that a den was used for reproduction by foxes decreased with distance from the subsidized goose colony and increased with lemming abundance. When lemmings were highly abundant, the effect of distance from the colony disappeared. The goose colony thus generated a spatial patterning of reproduction probability of foxes, while the lemming cycle generated a strong temporal variation of reproduction probability of foxes. 6. This study shows how the input of energy owing to the large-scale migration of prey affects the functional and reproductive responses of an opportunistic consumer, and how this input is spatially and temporally modulated through the foraging behaviour of the consumer. Thus, perspectives of both landscape and foraging ecology are needed to fully resolve the effects of subsidies on animal demographic processes and population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

PubMed Central

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.

PubMed

Kühnert, Denise; Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-01

When viruses spread, outbreaks can be spawned in previously unaffected regions. Depending on the time and mode of introduction, each regional outbreak can have its own epidemic dynamics. The migration and phylodynamic processes are often intertwined and need to be taken into account when analyzing temporally and spatially structured virus data. In this article, we present a fully probabilistic approach for the joint reconstruction of phylodynamic history in structured populations (such as geographic structure) based on a multitype birth-death process. This approach can be used to quantify the spread of a pathogen in a structured population. Changes in epidemic dynamics through time within subpopulations are incorporated through piecewise constant changes in transmission parameters.We analyze a global human influenza H3N2 virus data set from a geographically structured host population to demonstrate how seasonal dynamics can be inferred simultaneously with the phylogeny and migration process. Our results suggest that the main migration path among the northern, tropical, and southern region represented in the sample analyzed here is the one leading from the tropics to the northern region. Furthermore, the time-dependent transmission dynamics between and within two HIV risk groups, heterosexuals and injecting drug users, in the Latvian HIV epidemic are investigated. Our analyses confirm that the Latvian HIV epidemic peaking around 2001 was mainly driven by the injecting drug user risk group. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Dynamic Controllability and Dispatchability Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul Henry

2014-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. Recent papers have addressed the question of how to tell whether a temporal network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether the temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. We present a fast algorithm for Dynamic Controllability. We also note a correspondence between the reduction steps in the algorithm and the operations involved in converting the projections to dispatchable form. This has implications for the complexity for sparse networks.

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2016-04-01

Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

Dynamic networks of PTSD symptoms during conflict.

PubMed

Greene, Talya; Gelkopf, Marc; Epskamp, Sacha; Fried, Eiko

2018-02-28

Conceptualizing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms as a dynamic system of causal elements could provide valuable insights into the way that PTSD develops and is maintained in traumatized individuals. We present the first study to apply a multilevel network model to produce an exploratory empirical conceptualization of dynamic networks of PTSD symptoms, using data collected during a period of conflict. Intensive longitudinal assessment data were collected during the Israel-Gaza War in July-August 2014. The final sample (n = 96) comprised a general population sample of Israeli adult civilians exposed to rocket fire. Participants completed twice-daily reports of PTSD symptoms via smartphone for 30 days. We used a multilevel vector auto-regression model to produce contemporaneous and temporal networks, and a partial correlation network model to obtain a between-subjects network. Multilevel network analysis found strong positive contemporaneous associations between hypervigilance and startle response, avoidance of thoughts and avoidance of reminders, and between flashbacks and emotional reactivity. The temporal network indicated the central role of startle response as a predictor of future PTSD symptomatology, together with restricted affect, blame, negative emotions, and avoidance of thoughts. There were some notable differences between the temporal and contemporaneous networks, including the presence of a number of negative associations, particularly from blame. The between-person network indicated flashbacks and emotional reactivity to be the most central symptoms. This study suggests various symptoms that could potentially be driving the development of PTSD. We discuss clinical implications such as identifying particular symptoms as targets for interventions.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

A Structural Characterization of Temporal Dynamic Controllability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul

2006-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. Recent papers have addressed the question of how to tell whether a temporal network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether the temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. Previous work has presented an O(N5) algorithm for testing this property. Here, we introduce a new analysis of temporal cycles that leads to an O(N4) algorithm.

Systems thinking in combating infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xia, Shang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Liu, Jiming

2017-09-11

The transmission of infectious diseases is a dynamic process determined by multiple factors originating from disease pathogens and/or parasites, vector species, and human populations. These factors interact with each other and demonstrate the intrinsic mechanisms of the disease transmission temporally, spatially, and socially. In this article, we provide a comprehensive perspective, named as systems thinking, for investigating disease dynamics and associated impact factors, by means of emphasizing the entirety of a system's components and the complexity of their interrelated behaviors. We further develop the general steps for performing systems approach to tackling infectious diseases in the real-world settings, so as to expand our abilities to understand, predict, and mitigate infectious diseases.

Dynamic Reorganization of Functional Connectivity Reveals Abnormal Temporal Efficiency in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Sun, Yu; Collinson, Simon L; Suckling, John; Sim, Kang

2018-06-07

Emerging evidence suggests that schizophrenia is associated with brain dysconnectivity. Nonetheless, the implicit assumption of stationary functional connectivity (FC) adopted in most previous resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies raises an open question of schizophrenia-related aberrations in dynamic properties of resting-state FC. This study introduces an empirical method to examine the dynamic functional dysconnectivity in patients with schizophrenia. Temporal brain networks were estimated from resting-state fMRI of 2 independent datasets (patients/controls = 18/19 and 53/57 for self-recorded dataset and a publicly available replication dataset, respectively) by the correlation of sliding time-windowed time courses among regions of a predefined atlas. Through the newly introduced temporal efficiency approach and temporal random network models, we examined, for the first time, the 3D spatiotemporal architecture of the temporal brain network. We found that although prominent temporal small-world properties were revealed in both groups, temporal brain networks of patients with schizophrenia in both datasets showed a significantly higher temporal global efficiency, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Specifically, we found localized changes of temporal nodal properties in the left frontal, right medial parietal, and subcortical areas that were associated with clinical features of schizophrenia. Our findings demonstrate that altered dynamic FC may underlie abnormal brain function and clinical symptoms observed in schizophrenia. Moreover, we provide new evidence to extend the dysconnectivity hypothesis in schizophrenia from static to dynamic brain network and highlight the potential of aberrant brain dynamic FC in unraveling the pathophysiologic mechanisms of the disease.

Temporal Dynamic Controllability Revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul H.; Muscettola, Nicola

2005-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. We revisit the question of how to determine whether a given set of temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. In particular, we consider how best to determine whether a network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether a dynamic strategy exists for executing the network that is guaranteed to satisfy the requirements. Previous work has shown the existence of a pseudo-polynomial algorithm for testing Dynamic Controllability. Here, we greatly simplify the previous framework, and present a true polynomial algorithm with a cutoff based only on the number of nodes.

Space Use of African Wild Dogs in Relation to Other Large Carnivores

PubMed Central

Darnell, Angela M.; Graf, Jan A.; Somers, Michael J.; Slotow, Rob; Szykman Gunther, Micaela

2014-01-01

Interaction among species through competition is a principle process structuring ecological communities, affecting behavior, distribution, and ultimately the population dynamics of species. High competition among large African carnivores, associated with extensive diet overlap, manifests in interactions between subordinate African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and dominant lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). Using locations of large carnivores in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we found different responses from wild dogs to their two main competitors. Wild dogs avoided lions, particularly during denning, through a combination of spatial and temporal avoidance. However, wild dogs did not exhibit spatial or temporal avoidance of spotted hyenas, likely because wild dog pack sizes were large enough to adequately defend their kills. Understanding that larger carnivores affect the movements and space use of other carnivores is important for managing current small and fragmented carnivore populations, especially as reintroductions and translocations are essential tools used for the survival of endangered species, as with African wild dogs. PMID:24896638

Space use of African wild dogs in relation to other large carnivores.

PubMed

Darnell, Angela M; Graf, Jan A; Somers, Michael J; Slotow, Rob; Szykman Gunther, Micaela

2014-01-01

Interaction among species through competition is a principle process structuring ecological communities, affecting behavior, distribution, and ultimately the population dynamics of species. High competition among large African carnivores, associated with extensive diet overlap, manifests in interactions between subordinate African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and dominant lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). Using locations of large carnivores in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we found different responses from wild dogs to their two main competitors. Wild dogs avoided lions, particularly during denning, through a combination of spatial and temporal avoidance. However, wild dogs did not exhibit spatial or temporal avoidance of spotted hyenas, likely because wild dog pack sizes were large enough to adequately defend their kills. Understanding that larger carnivores affect the movements and space use of other carnivores is important for managing current small and fragmented carnivore populations, especially as reintroductions and translocations are essential tools used for the survival of endangered species, as with African wild dogs.

Developing an ecosystem perspective from experimental monitoring programs: I. Demographic responses of a rare geothermal grass to soil temperature.

PubMed

Pavlik, B M; Enberg, A

2001-08-01

The geysers panic grass [Dichanthelium lanuginosum Spellenberg var. thermale (Bol.) Spellenberg or DILA] is exclusively associated with surface geothermal manifestations in Sonoma County, California, USA (38 degrees 46'N, 122 degrees 38'W). Steam extraction by power plants could alter the subsurface distribution of heat and water to the site, potentially impacting subpopulations of this rare plant. The purpose of this study was to use demographic monitoring to determine: (1) temporal and spatial patterns of soil temperature in relation to the distribution of established DILA individuals at Little Geysers, (2) in situ response of experimental populations of DILA to spatial variations in soil temperature, and (3) habitat requirements of DILA as an indicator of its tolerance to variations in surficial geothermal features. Thermocouple transects and a datalogger provided data for characterizing the spatial and temporal patterns of soil temperature in four microhabitats (fumarole, DILA stand, Andropogon stand, and cleared). Experimental populations were established by precisely sowing and monitoring DILA seeds in these microhabitats. The results indicated that spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature had significant effects on the processes of germination, growth, survivorship, and reproduction, thus producing a readily observed metapopulation patch dynamic in relation to geothermal activity. Seasonal depressions of soil temperature near the fumaroles by cold air and prolonged rainfall events also promoted the emergence and survival of DILA seedlings in a microhabitat that was previously too hot to occupy. Over longer periods of time, DILA metapopulation dynamism reflected climatic and geothermal variation. Drought years inhibited germination for lack of water, but more importantly for the lack of requisite soil temperature depressions in the fumarole microhabitat. Wet years promoted subpopulation expansion into transition areas that were once too hot and dry. There have also been shifts in the underground distribution of steam into areas distant from known geothermal features. The demographic responses of DILA to spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature indicate that heat is an absolutely essential component of the steam resource. In its absence, germination, seeding survivorship, growth, and maturation are significantly inhibited even if soil conditions are favorable and potential competitors are controlled. Ultimately, persistence of the species depends on maintaining the ecosystem dynamic of colonization and extirpation in response to variations in surficial geothermal features over long spatial and temporal scales. This should shift management perspective from its narrow focus on individual plants to a wider focus on monitoring the essential habitat component of steam.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Power laws governing epidemics in isolated populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, C. J.; Anderson, R. M.

1996-06-01

TEMPORAL changes in the incidence of measles virus infection within large urban communities in the developed world have been the focus of much discussion in the context of the identification and analysis of nonlinear and chaotic patterns in biological time series1-11. In contrast, the measles records for small isolated island populations are highly irregular, because of frequent fade-outs of infection12-14, and traditional analysis15 does not yield useful insight. Here we use measurements of the distribution of epidemic sizes and duration to show that regularities in the dynamics of such systems do become apparent. Specifically, these biological systems are characterized by well-defined power laws in a manner reminiscent of other nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical systems in the physical sciences16-19. We further show that the observed power-law exponents are well described by a simple lattice-based model which reflects the social interaction between individual hosts.

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Deciphering DNA replication dynamics in eukaryotic cell populations in relation with their averaged chromatin conformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldar, A.; Arneodo, A.; Audit, B.; Argoul, F.; Rappailles, A.; Guilbaud, G.; Petryk, N.; Kahli, M.; Hyrien, O.

2016-03-01

We propose a non-local model of DNA replication that takes into account the observed uncertainty on the position and time of replication initiation in eukaryote cell populations. By picturing replication initiation as a two-state system and considering all possible transition configurations, and by taking into account the chromatin’s fractal dimension, we derive an analytical expression for the rate of replication initiation. This model predicts with no free parameter the temporal profiles of initiation rate, replication fork density and fraction of replicated DNA, in quantitative agreement with corresponding experimental data from both S. cerevisiae and human cells and provides a quantitative estimate of initiation site redundancy. This study shows that, to a large extent, the program that regulates the dynamics of eukaryotic DNA replication is a collective phenomenon that emerges from the stochastic nature of replication origins initiation.

Optimal control of a rabies epidemic model with a birth pulse.

PubMed

Clayton, Tim; Duke-Sylvester, Scott; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne; Real, Leslie A

2010-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations describes the population dynamics of a rabies epidemic in raccoons. The model accounts for the dynamics of a vaccine, including loss of vaccine due to animal consumption and loss from factors other than racoon uptake. A control method to reduce the spread of disease is introduced through temporal distribution of vaccine packets. This work incorporates the effect of the seasonal birth pulse in the racoon population and the attendant increase in new-borns which are susceptible to the diseases, analysing the impact of the timing and length of this pulse on the optimal distribution of vaccine packets. The optimization criterion is to minimize the number of infected raccoons while minimizing the cost of distributing the vaccine. Using an optimal control setting, numerical results illustrate strategies for distributing the vaccine depending on the timing of the infection outbreak with respect to the birth pulse.

Response of native insect communities to invasive plants.

PubMed

Bezemer, T Martijn; Harvey, Jeffrey A; Cronin, James T

2014-01-01

Invasive plants can disrupt a range of trophic interactions in native communities. As a novel resource they can affect the performance of native insect herbivores and their natural enemies such as parasitoids and predators, and this can lead to host shifts of these herbivores and natural enemies. Through the release of volatile compounds, and by changing the chemical complexity of the habitat, invasive plants can also affect the behavior of native insects such as herbivores, parasitoids, and pollinators. Studies that compare insects on related native and invasive plants in invaded habitats show that the abundance of insect herbivores is often lower on invasive plants, but that damage levels are similar. The impact of invasive plants on the population dynamics of resident insect species has been rarely examined, but invasive plants can influence the spatial and temporal dynamics of native insect (meta)populations and communities, ultimately leading to changes at the landscape level.

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Incorporating spatial constraint in co-activation pattern analysis to explore the dynamics of resting-state networks: An application to Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Zhuang, Xiaowei; Walsh, Ryan R; Sreenivasan, Karthik; Yang, Zhengshi; Mishra, Virendra; Cordes, Dietmar

2018-05-15

The dynamics of the brain's intrinsic networks have been recently studied using co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis. The CAP method relies on few model assumptions and CAP-based measurements provide quantitative information of network temporal dynamics. One limitation of existing CAP-related methods is that the computed CAPs share considerable spatial overlap that may or may not be functionally distinct relative to specific network dynamics. To more accurately describe network dynamics with spatially distinct CAPs, and to compare network dynamics between different populations, a novel data-driven CAP group analysis method is proposed in this study. In the proposed method, a dominant-CAP (d-CAP) set is synthesized across CAPs from multiple clustering runs for each group with the constraint of low spatial similarities among d-CAPs. Alternating d-CAPs with less overlapping spatial patterns can better capture overall network dynamics. The number of d-CAPs, the temporal fraction and spatial consistency of each d-CAP, and the subject-specific switching probability among all d-CAPs are then calculated for each group and used to compare network dynamics between groups. The spatial dissimilarities among d-CAPs computed with the proposed method were first demonstrated using simulated data. High consistency between simulated ground-truth and computed d-CAPs was achieved, and detailed comparisons between the proposed method and existing CAP-based methods were conducted using simulated data. In an effort to physiologically validate the proposed technique and investigate network dynamics in a relevant brain network disorder, the proposed method was then applied to data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database to compare the network dynamics in Parkinson's disease (PD) and normal control (NC) groups. Fewer d-CAPs, skewed distribution of temporal fractions of d-CAPs, and reduced switching probabilities among final d-CAPs were found in most networks in the PD group, as compared to the NC group. Furthermore, an overall negative association between switching probability among d-CAPs and disease severity was observed in most networks in the PD group as well. These results expand upon previous findings from in vivo electrophysiological recording studies in PD. Importantly, this novel analysis also demonstrates that changes in network dynamics can be measured using resting-state fMRI data from subjects with early stage PD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates.

PubMed

Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth; Alegana, Victor A; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Linard, Catherine; Lourenço, Christoper; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Graupe, Bonita; Bird, Tomas J; Pezzulo, Carla; Wesolowski, Amy; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-01-01

Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities. We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates. We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations. The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets.

Temporal genetic structure in a poecilogonous polychaete: the interplay of developmental mode and environmental stochasticity

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Temporal variation in the genetic structure of populations can be caused by multiple factors, including natural selection, stochastic environmental variation, migration, or genetic drift. In benthic marine species, the developmental mode of larvae may indicate a possibility for temporal genetic variation: species with dispersive planktonic larvae are expected to be more likely to show temporal genetic variation than species with benthic or brooded non-dispersive larvae, due to differences in larval mortality and dispersal ability. We examined temporal genetic structure in populations of Pygospio elegans, a poecilogonous polychaete with within-species variation in developmental mode. P. elegans produces either planktonic, benthic, or intermediate larvae, varying both among and within populations, providing a within-species test of the generality of a relationship between temporal genetic variation and larval developmental mode. Results In contrast to our expectations, our microsatellite analyses of P. elegans revealed temporal genetic stability in the UK population with planktonic larvae, whereas there was variation indicative of drift in temporal samples of the populations from the Baltic Sea, which have predominantly benthic and intermediate larvae. We also detected temporal variation in relatedness within these populations. A large temporal shift in genetic structure was detected in a population from the Netherlands, having multiple developmental modes. This shift could have been caused by local extiction due to extreme environmental conditions and (re)colonization by planktonic larvae from neighboring populations. Conclusions In our study of P. elegans, temporal genetic variation appears to be due to not only larval developmental mode, but also the stochastic environment of adults. Large temporal genetic shifts may be more likely in marine intertidal habitats (e.g. North Sea and Wadden Sea) which are more prone to environmental stochasticity than the sub-tidal Baltic habitats. Sub-tidal and/or brackish (less saline) habitats may support smaller P. elegans populations and these may be more susceptible to the effects of random genetic drift. Moreover, higher frequencies of asexual reproduction and the benthic larval developmental mode in these populations leads to higher relatedness and contributes to drift. Our results indicate that a general relationship between larval developmental mode and temporal genetic variation may not exist. PMID:24447386

Temporal genetic structure in a poecilogonous polychaete: the interplay of developmental mode and environmental stochasticity.

PubMed

Kesäniemi, Jenni E; Mustonen, Marina; Boström, Christoffer; Hansen, Benni W; Knott, K Emily

2014-01-22

Temporal variation in the genetic structure of populations can be caused by multiple factors, including natural selection, stochastic environmental variation, migration, or genetic drift. In benthic marine species, the developmental mode of larvae may indicate a possibility for temporal genetic variation: species with dispersive planktonic larvae are expected to be more likely to show temporal genetic variation than species with benthic or brooded non-dispersive larvae, due to differences in larval mortality and dispersal ability. We examined temporal genetic structure in populations of Pygospio elegans, a poecilogonous polychaete with within-species variation in developmental mode. P. elegans produces either planktonic, benthic, or intermediate larvae, varying both among and within populations, providing a within-species test of the generality of a relationship between temporal genetic variation and larval developmental mode. In contrast to our expectations, our microsatellite analyses of P. elegans revealed temporal genetic stability in the UK population with planktonic larvae, whereas there was variation indicative of drift in temporal samples of the populations from the Baltic Sea, which have predominantly benthic and intermediate larvae. We also detected temporal variation in relatedness within these populations. A large temporal shift in genetic structure was detected in a population from the Netherlands, having multiple developmental modes. This shift could have been caused by local extiction due to extreme environmental conditions and (re)colonization by planktonic larvae from neighboring populations. In our study of P. elegans, temporal genetic variation appears to be due to not only larval developmental mode, but also the stochastic environment of adults. Large temporal genetic shifts may be more likely in marine intertidal habitats (e.g. North Sea and Wadden Sea) which are more prone to environmental stochasticity than the sub-tidal Baltic habitats. Sub-tidal and/or brackish (less saline) habitats may support smaller P. elegans populations and these may be more susceptible to the effects of random genetic drift. Moreover, higher frequencies of asexual reproduction and the benthic larval developmental mode in these populations leads to higher relatedness and contributes to drift. Our results indicate that a general relationship between larval developmental mode and temporal genetic variation may not exist.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Multiple-species extensions to general ‘food networks’ can be classified on the mean-field level, providing both fundamental understanding of ensuing cooperativity and profound insight into the rich spatio-temporal features and coarsening kinetics in the corresponding spatially extended systems. Novel space-time patterns emerge as a result of the formation of competing alliances; e.g. coarsening domains that each incorporate rock-paper-scissors competition games.

Temporal Dynamics of Arthropods on Six Tree Species in Dry Woodlands on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Beltrán, William; Wunderle, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Abstract The seasonal dynamics of foliage arthropod populations are poorly studied in tropical dry forests despite the importance of these studies for understanding arthropod population responses to environmental change. We monitored the abundance, temporal distributions, and body size of arthropods in five naturalized alien and one native tree species to characterize arthropod seasonality in dry novel Prosopis–Leucaena woodlands in Puerto Rico. A branch clipping method was used monthly to sample foliage arthropod abundance over 39 mo. Seasonal patterns of rainfall and abundance within various arthropod taxa were highly variable from year to year. Abundance for most taxa did not show significant seasonality over the 3 yr, although most taxa had abundance peaks each year. However, Homoptera displayed high seasonality with significant temporal aggregations in each year. Formicidae, Orthoptera, and Coleoptera showed high variation in abundance between wet and dry periods, whereas Hemiptera were consistently more abundant in the wet period. Seasonal differences in mean abundance were found only in a few taxa on Tamarindus indica L. , Bucida buceras L. , Pithecellobium dulce , and (Roxburgh) Benth. Mean arthropod abundance varied among tree species, with highest numbers on Prosopis juliflora , (Swartz) De Candolle, Pi. dulce , Leucaena leucocephala , and (Lamarck) de Wit. Abundance of Araneae, Orthoptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera larvae, and all arthropods showed weak relationships with one or more climatic variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, or relative humidity). Body size of arthropods was usually largest during the dry periods. Overall, total foliage arthropod abundance showed no consistent seasonality among years, which may become a more common trend in dry forests and woodlands in the Caribbean if seasonality of rainfall becomes less predictable. PMID:25502036

Temporal dynamics of arthropods on six tree species in dry woodlands on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Beltrán, William; Wunderle, Joseph M

2014-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of foliage arthropod populations are poorly studied in tropical dry forests despite the importance of these studies for understanding arthropod population responses to environmental change. We monitored the abundance, temporal distributions, and body size of arthropods in five naturalized alien and one native tree species to characterize arthropod seasonality in dry novel Prosopis-Leucaena woodlands in Puerto Rico. A branch clipping method was used monthly to sample foliage arthropod abundance over 39 mo. Seasonal patterns of rainfall and abundance within various arthropod taxa were highly variable from year to year. Abundance for most taxa did not show significant seasonality over the 3 yr, although most taxa had abundance peaks each year. However, Homoptera displayed high seasonality with significant temporal aggregations in each year. Formicidae, Orthoptera, and Coleoptera showed high variation in abundance between wet and dry periods, whereas Hemiptera were consistently more abundant in the wet period. Seasonal differences in mean abundance were found only in a few taxa on Tamarindus indica L., Bucida buceras L., Pithecellobium dulce, and (Roxburgh) Benth. Mean arthropod abundance varied among tree species, with highest numbers on Prosopis juliflora, (Swartz) De Candolle, Pi. dulce, Leucaena leucocephala, and (Lamarck) de Wit. Abundance of Araneae, Orthoptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera larvae, and all arthropods showed weak relationships with one or more climatic variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, or relative humidity). Body size of arthropods was usually largest during the dry periods. Overall, total foliage arthropod abundance showed no consistent seasonality among years, which may become a more common trend in dry forests and woodlands in the Caribbean if seasonality of rainfall becomes less predictable. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Characterizing the interface between wild ducks and poultry to evaluate the potential of transmission of avian pathogens.

PubMed

Cappelle, Julien; Gaidet, Nicolas; Iverson, Samuel A; Takekawa, John Y; Newman, Scott H; Fofana, Bouba; Gilbert, Marius

2011-11-15

Characterizing the interface between wild and domestic animal populations is increasingly recognized as essential in the context of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that are transmitted by wildlife. More specifically, the spatial and temporal distribution of contact rates between wild and domestic hosts is a key parameter for modeling EIDs transmission dynamics. We integrated satellite telemetry, remote sensing and ground-based surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of indirect contacts between wild and domestic birds to estimate the risk that avian pathogens such as avian influenza and Newcastle viruses will be transmitted between wildlife to poultry. We monitored comb ducks (Sarkidiornis melanotos melanotos) with satellite transmitters for seven months in an extensive Afro-tropical wetland (the Inner Niger Delta) in Mali and characterise the spatial distribution of backyard poultry in villages. We modelled the spatial distribution of wild ducks using 250-meter spatial resolution and 8-days temporal resolution remotely-sensed environmental indicators based on a Maxent niche modelling method. Our results show a strong seasonal variation in potential contact rate between wild ducks and poultry. We found that the exposure of poultry to wild birds was greatest at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season, when comb ducks disperse from natural water bodies to irrigated areas near villages. Our study provides at a local scale a quantitative evidence of the seasonal variability of contact rate between wild and domestic bird populations. It illustrates a GIS-based methodology for estimating epidemiological contact rates at the wildlife and livestock interface integrating high-resolution satellite telemetry and remote sensing data.

SpikeTemp: An Enhanced Rank-Order-Based Learning Approach for Spiking Neural Networks With Adaptive Structure.

PubMed

Wang, Jinling; Belatreche, Ammar; Maguire, Liam P; McGinnity, Thomas Martin

2017-01-01

This paper presents an enhanced rank-order-based learning algorithm, called SpikeTemp, for spiking neural networks (SNNs) with a dynamically adaptive structure. The trained feed-forward SNN consists of two layers of spiking neurons: 1) an encoding layer which temporally encodes real-valued features into spatio-temporal spike patterns and 2) an output layer of dynamically grown neurons which perform spatio-temporal classification. Both Gaussian receptive fields and square cosine population encoding schemes are employed to encode real-valued features into spatio-temporal spike patterns. Unlike the rank-order-based learning approach, SpikeTemp uses the precise times of the incoming spikes for adjusting the synaptic weights such that early spikes result in a large weight change and late spikes lead to a smaller weight change. This removes the need to rank all the incoming spikes and, thus, reduces the computational cost of SpikeTemp. The proposed SpikeTemp algorithm is demonstrated on several benchmark data sets and on an image recognition task. The results show that SpikeTemp can achieve better classification performance and is much faster than the existing rank-order-based learning approach. In addition, the number of output neurons is much smaller when the square cosine encoding scheme is employed. Furthermore, SpikeTemp is benchmarked against a selection of existing machine learning algorithms, and the results demonstrate the ability of SpikeTemp to classify different data sets after just one presentation of the training samples with comparable classification performance.

Temporal estimates of genetic diversity in some Mytilus galloprovincialis populations impacted by the Prestige oil-spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lado-Insua, Tanya; Pérez, Montse; Diz, Angel P.; Presa, Pablo

2011-04-01

The sinking of the tanker Prestige in November 2002 off the coast of Galicia resulted in the release of about 60,000 tons of heavy oil. The oil-spill provoked a serious environmental impact in Spanish and French coasts, which biological consequences are still being assessed. In this study we address the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity in some mussel populations impacted by the oil-spill. Changes in genetic diversity can be measured in natural populations provided that serial samples are available from before (year 2000) and after (years 2003, 2005) the oil-spill. Analyses of seven microsatellites indicate a weak but significant increase of genetic variation after the spill. This phenomenon is interpreted herein in terms of a balance between a enhanced genome mutability on microsatellite variation and a low genetic drift due to toxicants and asphyxia although other stochastic phenomena cannot be ruled out. Per locus annotation showed that in spite of the allelic changes observed in the period 2000-2005, the final size of most allelic series remained quite alike to those of year 2000. Present genetic data suggest that the genotoxic impact of the Prestige spill did not compromise the genetic diversity of studied mussel populations, at least regarding the genetic markers analysed.

In situ dynamics of cyst and vegetative cell populations of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella in Ago Bay, central Japan

PubMed Central

Ishikawa, Akira; Hattori, Mayuko; Ishii, Ken-Ichiro; Kulis, David M.; Anderson, Donald M.; Imai, Ichiro

2014-01-01

Temporal changes in the in situ germination flux of cysts and the abundance of vegetative cells of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella were investigated in Ago Bay, central Japan from July 2003 to December 2004. The in situ germination flux (cells m−2 day−1) was measured using ‘plankton emergence trap/chambers (PET chambers)’. Germination of the cysts in the sediments occurred continuously during the study, ranging from 52 to 1753 cells m−2 day−1, with no temporal trend. This germination pattern appeared to be promoted by a short mandatory dormancy period for newly formed cysts coupled with a broad temperature window for germination. For the vegetative populations, high abundances (>105 cells m−2) were recorded in the water column from spring to summer and from autumn to early winter. The size of the vegetative populations did not correlate with the cyst germination flux but rather larger vegetative populations were often observed when the water temperature was around 20°C, indicating that bloom development was mainly regulated by the temperature. Nonetheless, the continuous germination pattern of A. catenella is advantageous enabling the germinated cells to immediately exploit favorable bloom conditions. PMID:25221373

Daily dynamics of emerging pollutants in a sewer network (région Centre, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebault, Thomas; Réty, Maxime; Jacob, Jérémy; Destandau, Emilie; Fougère, Laetitia; Morio, Cédric

2017-04-01

As any catchment, cities are characterized by important flux of various materials. The specificity of urban socio-ecosystems lies in the nature of these materials that mainly result from human activities or are man-made. An important issue concerns emerging pollutants for which an understanding of their temporal dynamics is crucial to better forecast flux and adapt remediation treatments before waters are released in the environment. This study aims at better understanding the socio-economic drivers of emerging pollutants temporal dynamics by monitoring, on a daily basis during 85 consecutive days, a series of fifty illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals as well as their metabolites in a sewer network that collects wastewater from 90,000 inhabitants and upstream a wastewater plant. Flow-enslaved composite samples were automatically collected over 24h, then filtered, and target compounds were concentrated by solid-phase extraction before quantitation by HPLC-MS. Concentrations were converted into mass loads per population equivalent by several corrections (i) the flow, (ii) the solid/liquid partition and the molar ratio between target residue and parent-compound (iii) the number of population-equivalent on the catchment and (iv) the excretion rate of target residue. The large dataset obtained, combined to a literature survey, allows us discussing several issues. (1) Calculated daily mass loads of pharmaceuticals are in agreement with literature data for comparable cities except for to anti-inflammatory drugs: ketoprofen that shows the highest values and ibuprofen that displays the lowest values. This would attest to local therapeutic preference that remains to be explained. Daily mass loads for illicit drugs are lower than those measured in more populated cities, except for tetrahydrocannabinol that exceeds the highest reported values. (2) Consumption estimates of pharmaceutical based on our approach are very close to theoretical values from the literature. Additionally, ratios of co-consumed antibiotics such as sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim are constant over the study and afford similar estimates for their consumption. For evident reasons, this comparison between theoretical and calculated consumption could not be achieved for illicit drugs. (3) Distinction can clearly be made on the temporal pattern of consumptions. Some compounds (e.g. acetaminophen, atenolol) do not exhibit clear week/week-end pattern whereas it is clearly expressed for cocaine and ecstasy. For the first time, some week/week-end patterns were also found for some pharmaceuticals such as metoprolol. Lower values noticed during week-end days could result from the mobility of the population in the catchment. Our study reveals that monitoring of pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs in wastewaters can bring significant information on the evolution of consumption practices in urban areas. Additional work in engaged to evaluate temporal trends on shorter (hour, minute) and longer (season, year) timescales. Applying this approach to a larger set of cities could reveal useful for developing decision tools for stakeholders and health agencies.

Dynamics of genetic and morphological variability within Neandertals.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2012-01-01

Paleogenomics may suggest changes to the way anthropologists have discussed the dynamics and morphological diversity among Neandertals. Genetic comparisons show that later Neandertals had relatively low autosomal genetic variation compared to recent humans. The known mitochondrial sample from Neandertals covers a broader geographic and temporal range, and shows greater diversity. This review addresses how genetic data compare to morphological and archaeological evidence about Neandertal variation and dynamics. Traditional views emphasized the morphological differences between western and eastern Neandertal populations, and between early and later Neandertals. Genomes broadly support these groupings, without resolving the outstanding question of the affinities of specimens from southwest Asia. However, the pattern of genetic variation appears to reject a long, in situ transformation of Neandertal groups over time, suggesting instead a more rapid process of regional dispersal and partial population replacement. Archaeological indicators sample dynamics on a much finer timescale than morphological or genetic evidence, and point to dispersal and turnover among Neandertals on a regional scale. In this way, genetic evidence may provide a bridge between the timescales relevant to morphological and archaeological comparisons. New ways of looking at the morphology of Neandertals may yield a better picture of their interactions and movements.

Risk and resilience in the late glacial: A case study from the western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. Michael; Aura Tortosa, J. Emili; Garcia-Puchol, Oreto; Riel-Salvatore, Julien G.; Gauthier, Nicolas; Vadillo Conesa, Margarita; Pothier Bouchard, Geneviève

2018-03-01

The period spanning the Last Glacial Maximum through early Holocene encompasses dramatic and rapid environmental changes that offered both increased risk and new opportunities to human populations of the Mediterranean zone. The regional effects of global climate change varied spatially with latitude, topography, and distance from a shifting coastline; and human adaptations to these changes played out at these regional scales. To better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change and human social-ecological-technological systems (or SETS) during the transition from full glacial to interglacial, we carried out a meta-analysis of archaeological and paleoenvironmental datasets across the western Mediterranean region. We compiled information on prehistoric technology, land-use, and hunting strategies from 291 archaeological assemblages, recovered from 122 sites extending from southern Spain, through Mediterranean France, to northern and peninsular Italy, as well as 2,386 radiocarbon dates from across this region. We combine these data on human ecological dynamics with paleoenvironmental information derived from global climate models, proxy data, and estimates of coastlines modeled from sea level estimates and digital terrain. The LGM represents an ecologically predictable period for over much of the western Mediterranean, while the remainder of the Pleistocene was increasingly unpredictable, making it a period of increased ecological risk for hunter-gatherers. In response to increasing spatial and temporal uncertainty, hunter-gatherers reorganized different constituents of their SETS, allowing regional populations to adapt to these conditions up to a point. Beyond this threshold, rapid environmental change resulted in significant demographic change in Mediterranean hunter-gatherer populations.

Hierarchic spatio-temporal dynamics in glycolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinjyo, Takahiro; Nakagawa, Yoshiyuki; Ueda, Tetsuo

Yeast extracts exhibit oscillations when the glycolytic system is far away from equilibrium. Spatio-temporal dynamics in this system was studied in the newly developed gel as well as in the solution. Small regions (about 10 um) with very complex shape with high or low concentrations of NADH appeared, and upon these small structures large-scale dynamics were superimposed. Concentration waves propagated, and the source of wave was induced by contact with high ADP. Sink of waves was generated by contacting the reaction gel to two small gels rich in ADP. Upon these spatio-temporal dynamics were superimposed much slower global oscillations throughout the system with a period of about 40 min. Similar dynamics was seen in a solution of yeast extract, but the size of domains was about ten times larger than that in the gel. In this way, the multi-enzyme system of glycolysis exhibits self-organization of hierarchy in spatio-temporal dynamics.

Dynamic Control of Plans with Temporal Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul; Muscettola, Nicola; Vidal, Thierry

2001-01-01

Certain planning systems that deal with quantitative time constraints have used an underlying Simple Temporal Problem solver to ensure temporal consistency of plans. However, many applications involve processes of uncertain duration whose timing cannot be controlled by the execution agent. These cases require more complex notions of temporal feasibility. In previous work, various "controllability" properties such as Weak, Strong, and Dynamic Controllability have been defined. The most interesting and useful Controllability property, the Dynamic one, has ironically proved to be the most difficult to analyze. In this paper, we resolve the complexity issue for Dynamic Controllability. Unexpectedly, the problem turns out to be tractable. We also show how to efficiently execute networks whose status has been verified.

Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti from a dengue hyperendemic urban setting in Colombia.

PubMed

Ocampo, Clara B; Wesson, Dawn M

2004-10-01

This study evaluated if the Aedes aegypti population in the city of Cali, Colombia was composed of genetically distinct local populations with different levels of insecticide resistance and dengue vector competence. Insecticide resistance was assayed biochemically and was associated with varying levels of mixed-function oxidases and non-specific esterases. The genes encoding those enzymes were under selective pressure from insecticides used to suppress Ae. aegypti populations. Vector competence showed heterogeneity among the vector populations ranging from 19% to 60%. Population genetic analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction products, expressed as genetic distance, Wright's F(st), and migration rate (Nm), demonstrated moderate genetic differentiation among Ae. aegypti from four sites (F(st) = 0.085). The results from all characteristics evaluated in the study demonstrated spatial and temporal variation between Ae. aegypti populations. At any specific time, the local populations of Ae. aegypti were genetically differentiated and unique with respect to insecticide resistance and vector competence. Both characteristics changed independently.

Universal Temporal Profile of Replication Origin Activation in Eukaryotes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldar, Arach

2011-03-01

The complete and faithful transmission of eukaryotic genome to daughter cells involves the timely duplication of mother cell's DNA. DNA replication starts at multiple chromosomal positions called replication origin. From each activated replication origin two replication forks progress in opposite direction and duplicate the mother cell's DNA. While it is widely accepted that in eukaryotic organisms replication origins are activated in a stochastic manner, little is known on the sources of the observed stochasticity. It is often associated to the population variability to enter S phase. We extract from a growing Saccharomyces cerevisiae population the average rate of origin activation in a single cell by combining single molecule measurements and a numerical deconvolution technique. We show that the temporal profile of the rate of origin activation in a single cell is similar to the one extracted from a replicating cell population. Taking into account this observation we exclude the population variability as the origin of observed stochasticity in origin activation. We confirm that the rate of origin activation increases in the early stage of S phase and decreases at the latter stage. The population average activation rate extracted from single molecule analysis is in prefect accordance with the activation rate extracted from published micro-array data, confirming therefore the homogeneity and genome scale invariance of dynamic of replication process. All these observations point toward a possible role of replication fork to control the rate of origin activation.

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Geographical and Temporal Dynamics of Chaetocnema Pulicaria Populations and Their Role in Stewart's Disease of Corn in Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Esker, Paul David

2001-05-01

This thesis is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction and justification, chapters 2 and 3 are journal papers, chapter 4 is a preliminary analysis of winter environmental variables and their use in forecasting for Stewart's disease of corn, and chapter 5 is general conclusions and discussion. References can be found at the end of each chapter, except chapter 5 and are specific to that chapter.

Foraminifera Record the Good Years More than the Bad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hull, P. M.

2014-12-01

Past ocean conditions are primarily discerned from geochemical and community-based analyses of fossilized taxa, each of which have unique environmental niches and dynamics. A key requirement of such paleoceanographic studies is that some unbiased or well-constrained record of the living ecosystem and climate is deposited on the sea floor and preserved through the post-depositional processes that act to distort them. It is widely known that foraminiferal species exhibit varying seasonal preferences and that seasonality is a key variable to account for in paleoceanographic reconstructions. However, on longer time scales (> year), it is generally assumed that species record the 'average' environmental conditions or typical variance (e.g., El Nino intensity) that existed in a given, time-averaged sediment sample. Here I examine planktonic foraminiferal population dynamics on yearly and longer time scales, in order to quantify their effect on paleoceanographic reconstructions. Using a previously published record of >250 years of population dynamics in the Santa Barbara Basin sediments, I find that the majority of individuals in a given species lived during a small subset of the total years (~15- 37% of years depending on the species). Populations of shallow, mixed layer species primarily represent the warmest, youngest years, while thermocline species primarily represent the cooler, older years. Importantly, the seasonality of species does not always predict their interannual dynamics. The general importance of long time-scale population dynamics on paleoceanographic reconstructions will also be considered in a theoretical model parameterized with temporally explicit species co-variances and temperature variability. Such modeling is needed to constrain the relative impact that a very good year can have on our interpretation of the 'average' of hundreds to thousands of years.

Fitted Fourier-pseudospectral methods for solving a delayed reaction-diffusion partial differential equation in biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, A. M. A.; Bashier, E. B. M.; Hashim, M. H. A.; Patidar, K. C.

2017-07-01

In this work, we design and analyze a fitted numerical method to solve a reaction-diffusion model with time delay, namely, a delayed version of a population model which is an extension of the logistic growth (LG) equation for a food-limited population proposed by Smith [F.E. Smith, Population dynamics in Daphnia magna and a new model for population growth, Ecology 44 (1963) 651-663]. Seeing that the analytical solution (in closed form) is hard to obtain, we seek for a robust numerical method. The method consists of a Fourier-pseudospectral semi-discretization in space and a fitted operator implicit-explicit scheme in temporal direction. The proposed method is analyzed for convergence and we found that it is unconditionally stable. Illustrative numerical results will be presented at the conference.

The population dynamics of the parasitic copepode Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) on its definitive host

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Damme, P. A.; Hamerlynck, O.; Ollevier, F.

1996-06-01

The mesoparasitic copepod Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) was recovered from first-year bib ( Trisopterus luscus L.) in the Voordelta (Southern Bight of the North Sea) from May until December 1989. Analysis of the seasonal abundance and of the population structure showed that transmission of infective stages to bib mainly occurred from June to September. From September to December the overall prevalence fluctuated around 70%. Maximum parasite population size (47/104m2) and the highest total egg number were recorded in September and October, respectively. It was found that total parasite mortality was significantly influenced by mortality of hosts carrying parasites. Natural mortality probably contributed a small percentage to total parasite mortality. Calculation of the temporal mean-variance regression equation revealed that the parasites were aggregated within the definitive host population.

Tracking molecular dynamics without tracking: image correlation of photo-activation microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandžić, Elvis; Rossy, Jérémie; Gaus, Katharina

2015-03-01

Measuring protein dynamics in the plasma membrane can provide insights into the mechanisms of receptor signaling and other cellular functions. To quantify protein dynamics on the single molecule level over the entire cell surface, sophisticated approaches such as single particle tracking (SPT), photo-activation localization microscopy (PALM) and fluctuation-based analysis have been developed. However, analyzing molecular dynamics of fluorescent particles with intermittent excitation and low signal-to-noise ratio present at high densities has remained a challenge. We overcame this problem by applying spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy (STICS) analysis to photo-activated (PA) microscopy time series. In order to determine under which imaging conditions this approach is valid, we simulated PA images of diffusing particles in a homogeneous environment and varied photo-activation, reversible blinking and irreversible photo-bleaching rates. Further, we simulated data with high particle densities that populated mobile objects (such as adhesions and vesicles) that often interfere with STICS and fluctuation-based analysis. We demonstrated in experimental measurements that the diffusion coefficient of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) fused to PAGFP in live COS-7 cells can be determined in the plasma membrane and revealed differences in the time-dependent diffusion maps between wild-type and mutant Lck in activated T cells. In summary, we have developed a new analysis approach for live cell photo-activation microscopy data based on image correlation spectroscopy to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of single proteins.

Tracking molecular dynamics without tracking: image correlation of photo-activation microscopy.

PubMed

Pandžić, Elvis; Rossy, Jérémie; Gaus, Katharina

2015-03-09

Measuring protein dynamics in the plasma membrane can provide insights into the mechanisms of receptor signaling and other cellular functions. To quantify protein dynamics on the single molecule level over the entire cell surface, sophisticated approaches such as single particle tracking (SPT), photo-activation localization microscopy (PALM) and fluctuation-based analysis have been developed. However, analyzing molecular dynamics of fluorescent particles with intermittent excitation and low signal-to-noise ratio present at high densities has remained a challenge. We overcame this problem by applying spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy (STICS) analysis to photo-activated (PA) microscopy time series. In order to determine under which imaging conditions this approach is valid, we simulated PA images of diffusing particles in a homogeneous environment and varied photo-activation, reversible blinking and irreversible photo-bleaching rates. Further, we simulated data with high particle densities that populated mobile objects (such as adhesions and vesicles) that often interfere with STICS and fluctuation-based analysis. We demonstrated in experimental measurements that the diffusion coefficient of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) fused to PAGFP in live COS-7 cells can be determined in the plasma membrane and revealed differences in the time-dependent diffusion maps between wild-type and mutant Lck in activated T cells. In summary, we have developed a new analysis approach for live cell photo-activation microscopy data based on image correlation spectroscopy to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of single proteins.

Imaging the Population Dynamics of Bacterial Communities in the Zebrafish Gut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Zac Stephens, W.; Hampton, Jennifer; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

2013-03-01

The vertebrate gut is home to a diverse microbial ecosystem whose composition has a strong influence on the development and health of the host organism. While researchers are increasingly able to identify the constituent members of the microbiome, very little is known about the spatial and temporal dynamics of commensal microbial communities, including the mechanisms by which communities nucleate, grow, and interact. We address these issues using a model organism: the larval zebrafish (Danio rerio) prepared microbe-free and inoculated with controlled compositions of fluorophore-expressing bacteria. Live imaging with light sheet fluorescence microscopy enables visualization of individual bacterial cells as well as growing colonies over the entire volume of the gut over periods up to 24 hours. We analyze the structure and dynamics of imaged bacterial communities, uncovering correlations between population size, growth rates, and the timing of inoculations that suggest the existence of active changes in the host environment induced by early bacterial exposure. Our data provide the first visualizations of gut microbiota development over an extended period of time in a vertebrate.

Human seizures couple across spatial scales through travelling wave dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinet, L.-E.; Fiddyment, G.; Madsen, J. R.; Eskandar, E. N.; Truccolo, W.; Eden, U. T.; Cash, S. S.; Kramer, M. A.

2017-04-01

Epilepsy--the propensity toward recurrent, unprovoked seizures--is a devastating disease affecting 65 million people worldwide. Understanding and treating this disease remains a challenge, as seizures manifest through mechanisms and features that span spatial and temporal scales. Here we address this challenge through the analysis and modelling of human brain voltage activity recorded simultaneously across microscopic and macroscopic spatial scales. We show that during seizure large-scale neural populations spanning centimetres of cortex coordinate with small neural groups spanning cortical columns, and provide evidence that rapidly propagating waves of activity underlie this increased inter-scale coupling. We develop a corresponding computational model to propose specific mechanisms--namely, the effects of an increased extracellular potassium concentration diffusing in space--that support the observed spatiotemporal dynamics. Understanding the multi-scale, spatiotemporal dynamics of human seizures--and connecting these dynamics to specific biological mechanisms--promises new insights to treat this devastating disease.

Cultural-based particle swarm for dynamic optimisation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneshyari, Moayed; Yen, Gary G.

2012-07-01

Many practical optimisation problems are with the existence of uncertainties, among which a significant number belong to the dynamic optimisation problem (DOP) category in which the fitness function changes through time. In this study, we propose the cultural-based particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to solve DOP problems. A cultural framework is adopted incorporating the required information from the PSO into five sections of the belief space, namely situational, temporal, domain, normative and spatial knowledge. The stored information will be adopted to detect the changes in the environment and assists response to the change through a diversity-based repulsion among particles and migration among swarms in the population space, and also helps in selecting the leading particles in three different levels, personal, swarm and global levels. Comparison of the proposed heuristics over several difficult dynamic benchmark problems demonstrates the better or equal performance with respect to most of other selected state-of-the-art dynamic PSO heuristics.

Stochastic modelling of infectious diseases for heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Ming, Rui-Xing; Liu, Ji-Ming; W Cheung, William K; Wan, Xiang

2016-12-22

Infectious diseases such as SARS and H1N1 can significantly impact people's lives and cause severe social and economic damages. Recent outbreaks have stressed the urgency of effective research on the dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, it is difficult to predict when and where outbreaks may emerge and how infectious diseases spread because many factors affect their transmission, and some of them may be unknown. One feasible means to promptly detect an outbreak and track the progress of disease spread is to implement surveillance systems in regional or national health and medical centres. The accumulated surveillance data, including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information can provide valuable information that can be exploited to better understand and model the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The aim of this work is to develop and empirically evaluate a stochastic model that allows the investigation of transmission patterns of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. We test the proposed model on simulation data and apply it to the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. In the simulation experiment, our model achieves high accuracy in parameter estimation (less than 10.0 % mean absolute percentage error). In terms of the forward prediction of case incidence, the mean absolute percentage errors are 17.3 % for the simulation experiment and 20.0 % for the experiment on the real surveillance data. We propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of infectious disease spread in heterogeneous populations from temporal-spatial surveillance data. The proposed model is evaluated using both simulated data and the real data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide valuable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of disease spread and analyse its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.

A genetically distinct hybrid zone occurs for two globally invasive mosquito fish species with striking phenotypic resemblance.

PubMed

Wilk, Rebecca J; Horth, Lisa

2016-12-01

Hybrid zones allow for the investigation of incipient speciation and related evolutionary processes of selection, gene flow, and migration. Interspecific dynamics, like competition, can impact the size, shape, and directional movement of species in hybrid zones. Hybrid zones contribute to a paradox for the biological species concept because interbreeding between species occurs while parental forms remain distinct. A long-standing zone of intergradation or introgression exists for eastern and western mosquito fish ( Gambusia holbrooki and G. affinis ) around Mobile Bay, AL. The region has been studied episodically, over decades, making it perfect for addressing temporal dynamics and for providing a deeper understanding of the genetics of these periodically reclassified fishes (as species or subspecies). We used six microsatellite markers to assess the current population structure and gene flow patterns across 19 populations of mosquito fish and then compared our results with historical data. Genetic evidence demonstrates that the current hybrid zone is located in a similar geographic region as the historical one, even after three decades. Hybrid fish, however, demonstrate relatively low heterozygosity and are genetically distinct from western and eastern mosquito fish populations. Fin ray counts, sometimes used to distinguish the two species from one another, demonstrate more eastern ( G. holbrooki) phenotype fish within the molecular genetic hybrid zone today. Mosquito fish are globally invasive, often found on the leading edge of flooded waters that they colonize, so the impact of hurricanes in the wake of climate change was also evaluated. An increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the hybrid region has occurred, and this point warrants further attention since hurricanes are known to move these aggressive, invasive species into novel territory. This work contributes to our classical understanding of hybrid zone temporal dynamics, refines our understanding of mosquito fish genetics in their native range, evaluates important genotype-phenotype relationships, and identifies a potential new impact of climate change.

Neurofeedback Tunes Scale-Free Dynamics in Spontaneous Brain Activity.

PubMed

Ros, T; Frewen, P; Théberge, J; Michela, A; Kluetsch, R; Mueller, A; Candrian, G; Jetly, R; Vuilleumier, P; Lanius, R A

2017-10-01

Brain oscillations exhibit long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs), which reflect the regularity of their fluctuations: low values representing more random (decorrelated) while high values more persistent (correlated) dynamics. LRTCs constitute supporting evidence that the brain operates near criticality, a state where neuronal activities are balanced between order and randomness. Here, healthy adults used closed-loop brain training (neurofeedback, NFB) to reduce the amplitude of alpha oscillations, producing a significant increase in spontaneous LRTCs post-training. This effect was reproduced in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder, where abnormally random dynamics were reversed by NFB, correlating with significant improvements in hyperarousal. Notably, regions manifesting abnormally low LRTCs (i.e., excessive randomness) normalized toward healthy population levels, consistent with theoretical predictions about self-organized criticality. Hence, when exposed to appropriate training, spontaneous cortical activity reveals a residual capacity for "self-tuning" its own temporal complexity, despite manifesting the abnormal dynamics seen in individuals with psychiatric disorder. Lastly, we observed an inverse-U relationship between strength of LRTC and oscillation amplitude, suggesting a breakdown of long-range dependence at high/low synchronization extremes, in line with recent computational models. Together, our findings offer a broader mechanistic framework for motivating research and clinical applications of NFB, encompassing disorders with perturbed LRTCs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cortical Neural Computation by Discrete Results Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Castejon, Carlos; Nuñez, Angel

2016-01-01

One of the most challenging problems we face in neuroscience is to understand how the cortex performs computations. There is increasing evidence that the power of the cortical processing is produced by populations of neurons forming dynamic neuronal ensembles. Theoretical proposals and multineuronal experimental studies have revealed that ensembles of neurons can form emergent functional units. However, how these ensembles are implicated in cortical computations is still a mystery. Although cell ensembles have been associated with brain rhythms, the functional interaction remains largely unclear. It is still unknown how spatially distributed neuronal activity can be temporally integrated to contribute to cortical computations. A theoretical explanation integrating spatial and temporal aspects of cortical processing is still lacking. In this Hypothesis and Theory article, we propose a new functional theoretical framework to explain the computational roles of these ensembles in cortical processing. We suggest that complex neural computations underlying cortical processing could be temporally discrete and that sensory information would need to be quantized to be computed by the cerebral cortex. Accordingly, we propose that cortical processing is produced by the computation of discrete spatio-temporal functional units that we have called “Discrete Results” (Discrete Results Hypothesis). This hypothesis represents a novel functional mechanism by which information processing is computed in the cortex. Furthermore, we propose that precise dynamic sequences of “Discrete Results” is the mechanism used by the cortex to extract, code, memorize and transmit neural information. The novel “Discrete Results” concept has the ability to match the spatial and temporal aspects of cortical processing. We discuss the possible neural underpinnings of these functional computational units and describe the empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis. We propose that fast-spiking (FS) interneuron may be a key element in our hypothesis providing the basis for this computation. PMID:27807408

Cortical Neural Computation by Discrete Results Hypothesis.

PubMed

Castejon, Carlos; Nuñez, Angel

2016-01-01

One of the most challenging problems we face in neuroscience is to understand how the cortex performs computations. There is increasing evidence that the power of the cortical processing is produced by populations of neurons forming dynamic neuronal ensembles. Theoretical proposals and multineuronal experimental studies have revealed that ensembles of neurons can form emergent functional units. However, how these ensembles are implicated in cortical computations is still a mystery. Although cell ensembles have been associated with brain rhythms, the functional interaction remains largely unclear. It is still unknown how spatially distributed neuronal activity can be temporally integrated to contribute to cortical computations. A theoretical explanation integrating spatial and temporal aspects of cortical processing is still lacking. In this Hypothesis and Theory article, we propose a new functional theoretical framework to explain the computational roles of these ensembles in cortical processing. We suggest that complex neural computations underlying cortical processing could be temporally discrete and that sensory information would need to be quantized to be computed by the cerebral cortex. Accordingly, we propose that cortical processing is produced by the computation of discrete spatio-temporal functional units that we have called "Discrete Results" (Discrete Results Hypothesis). This hypothesis represents a novel functional mechanism by which information processing is computed in the cortex. Furthermore, we propose that precise dynamic sequences of "Discrete Results" is the mechanism used by the cortex to extract, code, memorize and transmit neural information. The novel "Discrete Results" concept has the ability to match the spatial and temporal aspects of cortical processing. We discuss the possible neural underpinnings of these functional computational units and describe the empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis. We propose that fast-spiking (FS) interneuron may be a key element in our hypothesis providing the basis for this computation.

Temporally dynamic habitat suitability predicts genetic relatedness among caribou.

PubMed

Yannic, Glenn; Pellissier, Loïc; Le Corre, Maël; Dussault, Christian; Bernatchez, Louis; Côté, Steeve D

2014-10-07

Landscape heterogeneity plays a central role in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes. While species utilization of the landscape is usually viewed as constant within a year, the spatial distribution of individuals is likely to vary in time in relation to particular seasonal needs. Understanding temporal variation in landscape use and genetic connectivity has direct conservation implications. Here, we modelled the daily use of the landscape by caribou in Quebec and Labrador, Canada and tested its ability to explain the genetic relatedness among individuals. We assessed habitat selection using locations of collared individuals in migratory herds and static occurrences from sedentary groups. Connectivity models based on habitat use outperformed a baseline isolation-by-distance model in explaining genetic relatedness, suggesting that variations in landscape features such as snow, vegetation productivity and land use modulate connectivity among populations. Connectivity surfaces derived from habitat use were the best predictors of genetic relatedness. The relationship between connectivity surface and genetic relatedness varied in time and peaked during the rutting period. Landscape permeability in the period of mate searching is especially important to allow gene flow among populations. Our study highlights the importance of considering temporal variations in habitat selection for optimizing connectivity across heterogeneous landscape and counter habitat fragmentation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Velocity landscape correlation resolves multiple flowing protein populations from fluorescence image time series.

PubMed

Pandžić, Elvis; Abu-Arish, Asmahan; Whan, Renee M; Hanrahan, John W; Wiseman, Paul W

2018-02-16

Molecular, vesicular and organellar flows are of fundamental importance for the delivery of nutrients and essential components used in cellular functions such as motility and division. With recent advances in fluorescence/super-resolution microscopy modalities we can resolve the movements of these objects at higher spatio-temporal resolutions and with better sensitivity. Previously, spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy has been applied to map molecular flows by correlation analysis of fluorescence fluctuations in image series. However, an underlying assumption of this approach is that the sampled time windows contain one dominant flowing component. Although this was true for most of the cases analyzed earlier, in some situations two or more different flowing populations can be present in the same spatio-temporal window. We introduce an approach, termed velocity landscape correlation (VLC), which detects and extracts multiple flow components present in a sampled image region via an extension of the correlation analysis of fluorescence intensity fluctuations. First we demonstrate theoretically how this approach works, test the performance of the method with a range of computer simulated image series with varying flow dynamics. Finally we apply VLC to study variable fluxing of STIM1 proteins on microtubules connected to the plasma membrane of Cystic Fibrosis Bronchial Epithelial (CFBE) cells. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog ( Rana dalmatina)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, Magali; Pinaud, David; Barbraud, Christophe; Trotignon, Jacques; Brischoux, François

2018-02-01

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog ( Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina).

PubMed

Combes, Magali; Pinaud, David; Barbraud, Christophe; Trotignon, Jacques; Brischoux, François

2017-12-19

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog (Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.

Dynamic response and transfer function of social systems: A neuro-inspired model of collective human activity patterns.

PubMed

Lymperopoulos, Ilias N

2017-10-01

The interaction of social networks with the external environment gives rise to non-stationary activity patterns reflecting the temporal structure and strength of exogenous influences that drive social dynamical processes far from an equilibrium state. Following a neuro-inspired approach, based on the dynamics of a passive neuronal membrane, and the firing rate dynamics of single neurons and neuronal populations, we build a state-of-the-art model of the collective social response to exogenous interventions. In this regard, we analyze online activity patterns with a view to determining the transfer function of social systems, that is, the dynamic relationship between external influences and the resulting activity. To this end, first we estimate the impulse response (Green's function) of collective activity, and then we show that the convolution of the impulse response with a time-varying external influence field accurately reproduces empirical activity patterns. To capture the dynamics of collective activity when the generating process is in a state of statistical equilibrium, we incorporate into the model a noisy input convolved with the impulse response function, thus precisely reproducing the fluctuations of stationary collective activity around a resting value. The outstanding goodness-of-fit of the model results to empirical observations, indicates that the model explains human activity patterns generated by time-dependent external influences in various socio-economic contexts. The proposed model can be used for inferring the temporal structure and strength of external influences, as well as the inertia of collective social activity. Furthermore, it can potentially predict social activity patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India

PubMed Central

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-01-01

Background The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Methodology/principal findings Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Conclusion/significance Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission ‘hotspots’. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a “radical cure”. PMID:27906962

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

PubMed

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-12-01

The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission 'hotspots'. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a "radical cure".

How Well Do Students in Secondary School Understand Temporal Development of Dynamical Systems?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forjan, Matej; Grubelnik, Vladimir

2015-01-01

Despite difficulties understanding the dynamics of complex systems only simple dynamical systems without feedback connections have been taught in secondary school physics. Consequently, students do not have opportunities to develop intuition of temporal development of systems, whose dynamics are conditioned by the influence of feedback processes.…

Larval connectivity of pearl oyster through biophysical modelling; evidence of food limitation and broodstock effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Yoann; Dumas, Franck; Andréfouët, Serge

2016-12-01

The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that experiences spatial and temporal variability and needs to be optimized by understanding which factors influence recruitment. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Coupling a validated 3D larval dispersal model, a bioenergetics larval growth model following the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, and a population dynamics model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity patterns and recruitment potential is investigated. The relative contribution of reared and wild broodstock to the lagoon-scale recruitment potential is also investigated. Sensitivity analyses pointed out the major effect of the broodstock population structure as well as the sensitivity to larval mortality rate and inter-individual growth variability to larval supply and to the subsequent settlement potential. The application of the growth model clarifies how trophic conditions determine the larval supply and connectivity patterns. These results provide new cues to understand the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, their recruitment, and discuss how to take advantage of these findings and numerical models for pearl oyster management.

Ising-like patterns of spatial synchrony in population biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Andrew; Hastings, Alan; Machta, Jon

2014-03-01

Systems of coupled dynamical oscillators can undergo a phase transition between synchronous and asynchronous phases. In the case of coupled map lattices, the spontaneous symmetry breaking of a temporal-phase order parameter is known to exhibit Ising-like critical behavior. Here, we investigate a noisy coupled map motivated by the study of spatial synchrony in ecological populations far from the extinction threshold. Ising-like patterns of criticality, as well as spinodal decomposition and homogeneous nucleation, emerge from the nonlinear interactions of environmental fluctuations in habitat quality, local density-dependence in reproduction, and dispersal. In the mean-field limit, the correspondence to the Ising model is exact: the fixed points of our dynamical system are given by the equation of state for Weiss mean-field theory under an appropriate mapping of parameters. We have strong evidence that a quantitative correspondence persists, both near and far from the critical point, in the presence of fluctuations. Our results provide a formal connection between equilibrium statistical physics and population biology. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1344187.

Active tissue stiffness modulation controls valve interstitial cell phenotype and osteogenic potential in 3D culture.

PubMed

Duan, Bin; Yin, Ziying; Hockaday Kang, Laura; Magin, Richard L; Butcher, Jonathan T

2016-05-01

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) progression is a highly dynamic process whereby normally fibroblastic valve interstitial cells (VIC) undergo osteogenic differentiation, maladaptive extracellular matrix (ECM) composition, structural remodeling, and tissue matrix stiffening. However, how VIC with different phenotypes dynamically affect matrix properties and how the altered matrix further affects VIC phenotypes in response to physiological and pathological conditions have not yet been determined. In this study, we develop 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interplay between VIC phenotypes and matrix biomechanics. We find that VIC populated within hydrogels with valve leaflet like stiffness differentiate towards myofibroblasts in osteogenic media, but surprisingly undergo osteogenic differentiation when cultured within lower initial stiffness hydrogels. VIC differentiation progressively stiffens the hydrogel microenvironment, which further upregulates both early and late osteogenic markers. These findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive RhoA/ROCK signaling pathway, delays the osteogenic differentiation process. Therefore, direct ECM biomechanical modulation can affect VIC phenotypes towards and against osteogenic differentiation in 3D culture. These findings highlight the importance of the homeostatic maintenance of matrix stiffness to restrict pathological VIC differentiation. We implement 3D hydrogels with tunable matrix stiffness to investigate the dynamic interaction between valve interstitial cells (VIC, major cell population in heart valve) and matrix biomechanics. This work focuses on how human VIC responses to changing 3D culture environments. Our findings identify a dynamic positive feedback loop that governs acceleration of VIC calcification, which is the hallmark of calcific aortic valve disease. Temporal stiffening of pathologically lower stiffness matrix back to normal level, or blocking the mechanosensitive signaling pathway, delays VIC osteogenic differentiation. Our findings provide an improved understanding of VIC-matrix interactions to aid in interpretation of VIC calcification studies in vitro and suggest that ECM disruption resulting in local tissue stiffness decreases may promote calcific aortic valve disease. Copyright © 2016 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polymer models of interphase chromosomes

PubMed Central

Vasquez, Paula A; Bloom, Kerry

2014-01-01

Clear organizational patterns on the genome have emerged from the statistics of population studies of fixed cells. However, how these results translate into the dynamics of individual living cells remains unexplored. We use statistical mechanics models derived from polymer physics to inquire into the effects that chromosome properties and dynamics have in the temporal and spatial behavior of the genome. Overall, changes in the properties of individual chains affect the behavior of all other chains in the domain. We explore two modifications of chain behavior: single chain motion and chain-chain interactions. We show that there is not a direct relation between these effects, as increase in motion, doesn’t necessarily translate into an increase on chain interaction. PMID:25482191

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Integrating count and detection-nondetection data to model population dynamics.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B; Wiens, J David; Thorson, James T; Davis, Raymond J; Grant, Evan H Campbell

2017-06-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture-recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection-nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection-nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection-nondetection data (1995-2014) with newly collected count data (2015-2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ginkgo biloba's footprint of dynamic Pleistocene history dates back only 390,000 years ago.

PubMed

Hohmann, Nora; Wolf, Eva M; Rigault, Philippe; Zhou, Wenbin; Kiefer, Markus; Zhao, Yunpeng; Fu, Cheng-Xin; Koch, Marcus A

2018-04-27

At the end of the Pliocene and the beginning of Pleistocene glaciation and deglaciation cycles Ginkgo biloba went extinct all over the world, and only few populations remained in China in relict areas serving as sanctuary for Tertiary relict trees. Yet the status of these regions as refuge areas with naturally existing populations has been proven not earlier than one decade ago. Herein we elaborated the hypothesis that during the Pleistocene cooling periods G. biloba expanded its distribution range in China repeatedly. Whole plastid genomes were sequenced, assembled and annotated, and sequence data was analyzed in a phylogenetic framework of the entire gymnosperms to establish a robust spatio-temporal framework for gymnosperms and in particular for G. biloba Pleistocene evolutionary history. Using a phylogenetic approach, we identified that Ginkgoatae stem group age is about 325 million years, whereas crown group radiation of extant Ginkgo started not earlier than 390,000 years ago. During repeated warming phases, Gingko populations were separated and isolated by contraction of distribution range and retreated into mountainous regions serving as refuge for warm-temperate deciduous forests. Diversification and phylogenetic splits correlate with the onset of cooling phases when Ginkgo expanded its distribution range and gene pools merged. Analysis of whole plastid genome sequence data representing the entire spatio-temporal genetic variation of wild extant Ginkgo populations revealed the deepest temporal footprint dating back to approximately 390,000 years ago. Present-day directional West-East admixture of genetic diversity is shown to be the result of pronounced effects of the last cooling period. Our evolutionary framework will serve as a conceptual roadmap for forthcoming genomic sequence data, which can then provide deep insights into the demographic history of Ginkgo.

Impact of Partial Time Delay on Temporal Dynamics of Watts-Strogatz Small-World Neuronal Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hao; Sun, Xiaojuan

2017-06-01

In this paper, we mainly discuss effects of partial time delay on temporal dynamics of Watts-Strogatz (WS) small-world neuronal networks by controlling two parameters. One is the time delay τ and the other is the probability of partial time delay pdelay. Temporal dynamics of WS small-world neuronal networks are discussed with the aid of temporal coherence and mean firing rate. With the obtained simulation results, it is revealed that for small time delay τ, the probability pdelay could weaken temporal coherence and increase mean firing rate of neuronal networks, which indicates that it could improve neuronal firings of the neuronal networks while destroying firing regularity. For large time delay τ, temporal coherence and mean firing rate do not have great changes with respect to pdelay. Time delay τ always has great influence on both temporal coherence and mean firing rate no matter what is the value of pdelay. Moreover, with the analysis of spike trains and histograms of interspike intervals of neurons inside neuronal networks, it is found that the effects of partial time delays on temporal coherence and mean firing rate could be the result of locking between the period of neuronal firing activities and the value of time delay τ. In brief, partial time delay could have great influence on temporal dynamics of the neuronal networks.

Dynamic Balance of Excitation and Inhibition in Human and Monkey Neocortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehghani, Nima; Peyrache, Adrien; Telenczuk, Bartosz; Le van Quyen, Michel; Halgren, Eric; Cash, Sydney S.; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Destexhe, Alain

2016-03-01

Balance of excitation and inhibition is a fundamental feature of in vivo network activity and is important for its computations. However, its presence in the neocortex of higher mammals is not well established. We investigated the dynamics of excitation and inhibition using dense multielectrode recordings in humans and monkeys. We found that in all states of the wake-sleep cycle, excitatory and inhibitory ensembles are well balanced, and co-fluctuate with slight instantaneous deviations from perfect balance, mostly in slow-wave sleep. Remarkably, these correlated fluctuations are seen for many different temporal scales. The similarity of these computational features with a network model of self-generated balanced states suggests that such balanced activity is essentially generated by recurrent activity in the local network and is not due to external inputs. Finally, we find that this balance breaks down during seizures, where the temporal correlation of excitatory and inhibitory populations is disrupted. These results show that balanced activity is a feature of normal brain activity, and break down of the balance could be an important factor to define pathological states.

Factors associated with the deposition of Cladophora on Lake Michigan beaches in 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Stephen C.; Tucker, Taaja R.; Adams, Jean V.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska

2015-01-01

Deposition of the macroalgae Cladophora spp. was monitored on 18 beaches around Lake Michigan during 2012 at a high temporal frequency. We observed a high degree of spatial variability in Cladophora deposition among beaches on Lake Michigan, even within local regions, with no clear regional pattern in the intensity of Cladophora deposition. A strong seasonal pattern in Cladophora deposition was observed, with the heaviest deposition occurring during mid-summer. Several beaches exhibited high temporal variability in Cladophora deposition over short time scales, suggesting that drifting algal mats may be extremely dynamic in nearshore environments of the Great Lakes. Cladophora deposition on Lake Michigan beaches was primarily related to the presence of nearshore structures, local population density, and nearshore bathymetry. There was relatively little evidence that waves, winds, or currents were associated with Cladophora deposition on beaches, but this may be due to the relatively poor resolution of existing nearshore hydrodynamic data. Developing a predictive understanding of beach-cast Cladophora dynamics in Great Lakes environments may require both intensive Cladophora monitoring and fine-scale local hydrodynamic modeling efforts.

Graph regularized nonnegative matrix factorization for temporal link prediction in dynamic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiaoke; Sun, Penggang; Wang, Yu

2018-04-01

Many networks derived from society and nature are temporal and incomplete. The temporal link prediction problem in networks is to predict links at time T + 1 based on a given temporal network from time 1 to T, which is essential to important applications. The current algorithms either predict the temporal links by collapsing the dynamic networks or collapsing features derived from each network, which are criticized for ignoring the connection among slices. to overcome the issue, we propose a novel graph regularized nonnegative matrix factorization algorithm (GrNMF) for the temporal link prediction problem without collapsing the dynamic networks. To obtain the feature for each network from 1 to t, GrNMF factorizes the matrix associated with networks by setting the rest networks as regularization, which provides a better way to characterize the topological information of temporal links. Then, the GrNMF algorithm collapses the feature matrices to predict temporal links. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the proposed algorithm exhibits significantly improved accuracy by avoiding the collapse of temporal networks. Experimental results of a number of artificial and real temporal networks illustrate that the proposed method is not only more accurate but also more robust than state-of-the-art approaches.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Controlling the Flow of Visual Information through the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus: From Single Cells to Neural Networks.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-10-31

in my laboratory, Drs. Dan Kammen, Ernst Niebur and Florentin Worg6tter, as well as with three outside collaborators, Prof. John Kulli from the...also for experimentally observed cortical column structures ( Niebur and Worg6tter, 1990a,b). Temporal Dynamics of Interacting Neuronal Populations We...Connection Machine to simulate a 128 by 128 grid of 16,384 cells under a variety of stimulation patterns ( Niebur , Kammen & Koch, 1991). To explore

Acoustically regulated optical emission dynamics from quantum dot-like emission centers in GaN/InGaN nanowire heterostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazić, S.; Chernysheva, E.; Hernández-Mínguez, A.; Santos, P. V.; van der Meulen, H. P.

2018-03-01

We report on experimental studies of the effects induced by surface acoustic waves on the optical emission dynamics of GaN/InGaN nanowire quantum dots. We employ stroboscopic optical excitation with either time-integrated or time-resolved photoluminescence detection. In the absence of the acoustic wave, the emission spectra reveal signatures originated from the recombination of neutral exciton and biexciton confined in the probed nanowire quantum dot. When the nanowire is perturbed by the propagating acoustic wave, the embedded quantum dot is periodically strained and its excitonic transitions are modulated by the acousto-mechanical coupling. Depending on the recombination lifetime of the involved optical transitions, we can resolve acoustically driven radiative processes over time scales defined by the acoustic cycle. At high acoustic amplitudes, we also observe distortions in the transmitted acoustic waveform, which are reflected in the time-dependent spectral response of our sensor quantum dot. In addition, the correlated intensity oscillations observed during temporal decay of the exciton and biexciton emission suggest an effect of the acoustic piezoelectric fields on the quantum dot charge population. The present results are relevant for the dynamic spectral and temporal control of photon emission in III-nitride semiconductor heterostructures.

A Molecular Smart Surface for Spatio-Temporal Studies of Cell Mobility

PubMed Central

Lee, Eun-ju; Luo, Wei; Chan, Eugene W. L.; Yousaf, Muhammad N.

2015-01-01

Active migration in both healthy and malignant cells requires the integration of information derived from soluble signaling molecules with positional information gained from interactions with the extracellular matrix and with other cells. How a cell responds and moves involves complex signaling cascades that guide the directional functions of the cytoskeleton as well as the synthesis and release of proteases that facilitate movement through tissues. The biochemical events of the signaling cascades occur in a spatially and temporally coordinated manner then dynamically shape the cytoskeleton in specific subcellular regions. Therefore, cell migration and invasion involve a precise but constantly changing subcellular nano-architecture. A multidisciplinary effort that combines new surface chemistry and cell biological tools is required to understand the reorganization of cytoskeleton triggered by complex signaling during migration. Here we generate a class of model substrates that modulate the dynamic environment for a variety of cell adhesion and migration experiments. In particular, we use these dynamic substrates to probe in real-time how the interplay between the population of cells, the initial pattern geometry, ligand density, ligand affinity and integrin composition affects cell migration and growth. Whole genome microarray analysis indicates that several classes of genes ranging from signal transduction to cytoskeletal reorganization are differentially regulated depending on the nature of the surface conditions. PMID:26030281

Dynamic relations between fast-food restaurant and body weight status: a longitudinal and multilevel analysis of Chinese adults

PubMed Central

Xu, Hongwei; Short, Susan E; Liu, Tao

2013-01-01

Background Mixed findings have been reported on the association between Western fast-food restaurants and body weight status. Results vary across study contexts and are sensitive to the samples, measures and methods used. Most studies have failed to examine the temporally dynamic associations between community exposure to fast-food restaurants and weight changes. Methods Bayesian hierarchical regressions are used to model changes in body mass index, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR) as a function of changes in Western fast-food restaurants in 216 communities for more than 9000 Chinese adults followed up multiple times between 2000 and 2009. Results Number of Western fast-food restaurants is positively associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR among rural population. More fast-food restaurants are positively associated with a future increase in WHpR for urban women. Increased availability of fast food between two waves is related to increased WHtR for urban men over the same period. A past increase in number of fast-food restaurants is associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR for rural population. Conclusions The associations between community exposure to Western fast food and weight changes are temporally dynamic rather than static. Improved measures of exposure to community environment are needed to achieve more precise estimates and better understanding of these relationships. In light of the findings in this study and China’s rapid economic growth, further investigation and increased public health monitoring is warranted since Western fast food is likely to be more accessible and affordable in the near future. PMID:22923769

Dynamic relations between fast-food restaurant and body weight status: a longitudinal and multilevel analysis of Chinese adults.

PubMed

Xu, Hongwei; Short, Susan E; Liu, Tao

2013-03-01

Mixed findings have been reported on the association between Western fast-food restaurants and body weight status. Results vary across study contexts and are sensitive to the samples, measures and methods used. Most studies have failed to examine the temporally dynamic associations between community exposure to fast-food restaurants and weight changes. Bayesian hierarchical regressions are used to model changes in body mass index, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR) as a function of changes in Western fast-food restaurants in 216 communities for more than 9000 Chinese adults followed up multiple times between 2000 and 2009. Number of Western fast-food restaurants is positively associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR among rural population. More fast-food restaurants are positively associated with a future increase in WHpR for urban women. Increased availability of fast food between two waves is related to increased WHtR for urban men over the same period. A past increase in number of fast-food restaurants is associated with subsequent increases in WHtR and WHpR for rural population. The associations between community exposure to Western fast food and weight changes are temporally dynamic rather than static. Improved measures of exposure to community environment are needed to achieve more precise estimates and better understanding of these relationships. In light of the findings in this study and China's rapid economic growth, further investigation and increased public health monitoring is warranted since Western fast food is likely to be more accessible and affordable in the near future.

Information processing in the CNS: a supramolecular chemistry?

PubMed

Tozzi, Arturo

2015-10-01

How does central nervous system process information? Current theories are based on two tenets: (a) information is transmitted by action potentials, the language by which neurons communicate with each other-and (b) homogeneous neuronal assemblies of cortical circuits operate on these neuronal messages where the operations are characterized by the intrinsic connectivity among neuronal populations. In this view, the size and time course of any spike is stereotypic and the information is restricted to the temporal sequence of the spikes; namely, the "neural code". However, an increasing amount of novel data point towards an alternative hypothesis: (a) the role of neural code in information processing is overemphasized. Instead of simply passing messages, action potentials play a role in dynamic coordination at multiple spatial and temporal scales, establishing network interactions across several levels of a hierarchical modular architecture, modulating and regulating the propagation of neuronal messages. (b) Information is processed at all levels of neuronal infrastructure from macromolecules to population dynamics. For example, intra-neuronal (changes in protein conformation, concentration and synthesis) and extra-neuronal factors (extracellular proteolysis, substrate patterning, myelin plasticity, microbes, metabolic status) can have a profound effect on neuronal computations. This means molecular message passing may have cognitive connotations. This essay introduces the concept of "supramolecular chemistry", involving the storage of information at the molecular level and its retrieval, transfer and processing at the supramolecular level, through transitory non-covalent molecular processes that are self-organized, self-assembled and dynamic. Finally, we note that the cortex comprises extremely heterogeneous cells, with distinct regional variations, macromolecular assembly, receptor repertoire and intrinsic microcircuitry. This suggests that every neuron (or group of neurons) embodies different molecular information that hands an operational effect on neuronal computation.

Temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter; Saramäki, Jari

2012-10-01

A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology-from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids-can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via e-mail, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks. The study of temporal networks is very interdisciplinary in nature. Reflecting this, even the object of study has many names-temporal graphs, evolving graphs, time-varying graphs, time-aggregated graphs, time-stamped graphs, dynamic networks, dynamic graphs, dynamical graphs, and so on. This review covers different fields where temporal graphs are considered, but does not attempt to unify related terminology-rather, we want to make papers readable across disciplines.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland

PubMed Central

Spotswood, Erica N.; Bartolome, James W.; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery. PMID:26222069

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

PubMed

Spotswood, Erica N; Bartolome, James W; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Effects of Human-Nature Interactions on Wildlife Habitat Dynamics: The Case of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vina, A.; Tuanmu, M.; Yang, W.; Liu, J.

2012-12-01

Human activities continue to induce the degradation of natural ecosystems, thus threatening not only the long-term survival of many wildlife species around the world, but also the resilience of natural ecosystems to global environmental changes. In response, many conservation efforts are emerging as adaptive strategies for coping with the degradation of natural ecosystems. Among them, the establishment of nature reserves is considered to be the most effective. However the effectiveness of nature reserves depends on the type and intensity of human activities occurring within their boundaries. But many of these activities constitute important livelihood systems for local human populations. Therefore, to enhance the effectiveness of conservation actions without significantly affecting local livelihood systems, it is essential to understand the complexity of human-nature interactions and their effects on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the relation between giant panda habitat dynamics, conservation efforts and human activities in Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas, Sichuan Province, China. This reserve supports ca. 10% of the entire wild giant panda population but is also home to ca. 4,900 local residents. The spatio-temporal dynamics of giant panda habitat over the last four decades were analyzed using a time series of remotely sensed imagery acquired by different satellite sensor systems, including the Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner, the Landsat Thematic Mapper and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our assessment suggests that when local residents were actively involved in conservation efforts (through a payment for ecosystem services scheme established since around 2000) panda habitat started to recover, thus enhancing the resilience capacity of natural ecosystems in the Reserve. This reversed a long-term (> 30 years) trend of panda habitat degradation. The study not only has direct implications for wildlife habitat conservation but also increases our understanding of the complexity of human-nature interactions and their effects on the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

PubMed

McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare opportunity to seek a dynamic understanding of how individual-, group- and population-level processes interact. The wealth of existing data makes it possible to take a more integrative approach to examining how the consequences of individual heterogeneity scale to determine population-level pathogen dynamics and help advance our understanding of the ecological drivers of host-pathogen systems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

The dynamic-stimulus advantage of visual symmetry perception.

PubMed

Niimi, Ryosuke; Watanabe, Katsumi; Yokosawa, Kazuhiko

2008-09-01

It has been speculated that visual symmetry perception from dynamic stimuli involves mechanisms different from those for static stimuli. However, previous studies found no evidence that dynamic stimuli lead to active temporal processing and improve symmetry detection. In this study, four psychophysical experiments investigated temporal processing in symmetry perception using both dynamic and static stimulus presentations of dot patterns. In Experiment 1, rapid successive presentations of symmetric patterns (e.g., 16 patterns per 853 ms) produced more accurate discrimination of orientations of symmetry axes than static stimuli (single pattern presented through 853 ms). In Experiments 2-4, we confirmed that the dynamic-stimulus advantage depended upon presentation of a large number of unique patterns within a brief period (853 ms) in the dynamic conditions. Evidently, human vision takes advantage of temporal processing for symmetry perception from dynamic stimuli.

Input dependent cell assembly dynamics in a model of the striatal medium spiny neuron network.

PubMed

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeff

2012-01-01

The striatal medium spiny neuron (MSN) network is sparsely connected with fairly weak GABAergic collaterals receiving an excitatory glutamatergic cortical projection. Peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTH) of MSN population response investigated in various experimental studies display strong firing rate modulations distributed throughout behavioral task epochs. In previous work we have shown by numerical simulation that sparse random networks of inhibitory spiking neurons with characteristics appropriate for UP state MSNs form cell assemblies which fire together coherently in sequences on long behaviorally relevant timescales when the network receives a fixed pattern of constant input excitation. Here we first extend that model to the case where cortical excitation is composed of many independent noisy Poisson processes and demonstrate that cell assembly dynamics is still observed when the input is sufficiently weak. However if cortical excitation strength is increased more regularly firing and completely quiescent cells are found, which depend on the cortical stimulation. Subsequently we further extend previous work to consider what happens when the excitatory input varies as it would when the animal is engaged in behavior. We investigate how sudden switches in excitation interact with network generated patterned activity. We show that sequences of cell assembly activations can be locked to the excitatory input sequence and outline the range of parameters where this behavior is shown. Model cell population PSTH display both stimulus and temporal specificity, with large population firing rate modulations locked to elapsed time from task events. Thus the random network can generate a large diversity of temporally evolving stimulus dependent responses even though the input is fixed between switches. We suggest the MSN network is well suited to the generation of such slow coherent task dependent response which could be utilized by the animal in behavior.

Input Dependent Cell Assembly Dynamics in a Model of the Striatal Medium Spiny Neuron Network

PubMed Central

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeff

2012-01-01

The striatal medium spiny neuron (MSN) network is sparsely connected with fairly weak GABAergic collaterals receiving an excitatory glutamatergic cortical projection. Peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTH) of MSN population response investigated in various experimental studies display strong firing rate modulations distributed throughout behavioral task epochs. In previous work we have shown by numerical simulation that sparse random networks of inhibitory spiking neurons with characteristics appropriate for UP state MSNs form cell assemblies which fire together coherently in sequences on long behaviorally relevant timescales when the network receives a fixed pattern of constant input excitation. Here we first extend that model to the case where cortical excitation is composed of many independent noisy Poisson processes and demonstrate that cell assembly dynamics is still observed when the input is sufficiently weak. However if cortical excitation strength is increased more regularly firing and completely quiescent cells are found, which depend on the cortical stimulation. Subsequently we further extend previous work to consider what happens when the excitatory input varies as it would when the animal is engaged in behavior. We investigate how sudden switches in excitation interact with network generated patterned activity. We show that sequences of cell assembly activations can be locked to the excitatory input sequence and outline the range of parameters where this behavior is shown. Model cell population PSTH display both stimulus and temporal specificity, with large population firing rate modulations locked to elapsed time from task events. Thus the random network can generate a large diversity of temporally evolving stimulus dependent responses even though the input is fixed between switches. We suggest the MSN network is well suited to the generation of such slow coherent task dependent response which could be utilized by the animal in behavior. PMID:22438838

CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS: DEVELOPMENT OF A GRID-BASED WATERSHED MERCURY LOADING MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A distributed grid-based watershed mercury loading model has been developed to characterize spatial and temporal dynamics of mercury from both point and non-point sources. The model simulates flow, sediment transport, and mercury dynamics on a daily time step across a diverse lan...

Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to urbanization. It can be used by town planner and other stakeholders such as land surveyors and agriculture experts to mitigate the mushrooming of unplanned settlements in many town / villages and loss of land for agriculture which might cause problems in food security.

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate.

PubMed Central

Lima, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Jaksic, F. M.

2001-01-01

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate. PMID:11571053

Temporal growth and spatial distribution of the fast food industry and its relationship with economic development in China - 2005-2012.

PubMed

Xue, Hong; Cheng, Xi; Zhang, Qi; Wang, Huijun; Zhang, Bing; Qu, Weidong; Wang, Youfa

2017-09-01

The fast food (FF) industry has expanded rapidly in China during the past two decades, in parallel with an increase in the prevalence of obesity. Using government-reported longitudinal data from 21 provinces and cities in China, this study examined the growth over time and the spatial distribution patterns of the FF industry as well as the key social economic factors involved. We visualized the temporal and geographic distributions of FF industry development and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal spatial analysis to assess associations between macroeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and the growth and distributional changes of the industry. It grew faster in the southeast coastal (more economically developed) areas since 2005 than in other regions. The industry was: 1) highly correlated with Gross Domestic Product; 2) highly correlated with per capita disposable income for urban residents; 3) moderately correlated with urban population; and 4) not correlated with an increase of population size. The mean center of the FF industry shifted westward as the mean center of the GDP moved in the same direction, while the mean center of the population shifted eastward. The results suggest that the rapid FF industry expansion in China was closely associated with economic growth and that improving the food environment should be a major component in local economic development planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

PubMed

De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

2015-01-21

There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Utilizing the Landsat spectral-temporal domain for improved mapping and monitoring of ecosystem state and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquarella, Valerie J.

Just as the carbon dioxide observations that form the Keeling curve revolutionized the study of the global carbon cycle, free and open access to all available Landsat imagery is fundamentally changing how the Landsat record is being used to study ecosystems and ecological dynamics. This dissertation advances the use of Landsat time series for visualization, classification, and detection of changes in terrestrial ecological processes. More specifically, it includes new examples of how complex ecological patterns manifest in time series of Landsat observations, as well as novel approaches for detecting and quantifying these patterns. Exploration of the complexity of spectral-temporal patterns in the Landsat record reveals both seasonal variability and longer-term trajectories difficult to characterize using conventional bi-temporal or even annual observations. These examples provide empirical evidence of hypothetical ecosystem response functions proposed by Kennedy et al. (2014). Quantifying observed seasonal and phenological differences in the spectral reflectance of Massachusetts' forest communities by combining existing harmonic curve fitting and phenology detection algorithms produces stable feature sets that consistently out-performed more traditional approaches for detailed forest type classification. This study addresses the current lack of species-level forest data at Landsat resolutions, demonstrating the advantages of spectral-temporal features as classification inputs. Development of a targeted change detection method using transformations of time series data improves spatial and temporal information on the occurrence of flood events in landscapes actively modified by recovering North American beaver (Castor canadensis) populations. These results indicate the utility of the Landsat record for the study of species-habitat relationships, even in complex wetland environments. Overall, this dissertation confirms the value of the Landsat archive as a continuous record of terrestrial ecosystem state and dynamics. Given the global coverage of remote sensing datasets, the time series visualization and analysis approaches presented here can be extended to other areas. These approaches will also be improved by more frequent collection of moderate resolution imagery, as planned by the Landsat and Sentinel-2 programs. In the modern era of global environmental change, use of the Landsat spectral-temporal domain presents new and exciting opportunities for the long-term large-scale study of ecosystem extent, composition, condition, and change.

Memory and betweenness preference in temporal networks induced from time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Tongfeng; Zhang, Jie; Small, Michael; Zheng, Rui; Hui, Pan

2017-02-01

We construct temporal networks from time series via unfolding the temporal information into an additional topological dimension of the networks. Thus, we are able to introduce memory entropy analysis to unravel the memory effect within the considered signal. We find distinct patterns in the entropy growth rate of the aggregate network at different memory scales for time series with different dynamics ranging from white noise, 1/f noise, autoregressive process, periodic to chaotic dynamics. Interestingly, for a chaotic time series, an exponential scaling emerges in the memory entropy analysis. We demonstrate that the memory exponent can successfully characterize bifurcation phenomenon, and differentiate the human cardiac system in healthy and pathological states. Moreover, we show that the betweenness preference analysis of these temporal networks can further characterize dynamical systems and separate distinct electrocardiogram recordings. Our work explores the memory effect and betweenness preference in temporal networks constructed from time series data, providing a new perspective to understand the underlying dynamical systems.

Acoustic Cluster Therapy: In Vitro and Ex Vivo Measurement of Activated Bubble Size Distribution and Temporal Dynamics.

PubMed

Healey, Andrew John; Sontum, Per Christian; Kvåle, Svein; Eriksen, Morten; Bendiksen, Ragnar; Tornes, Audun; Østensen, Jonny

2016-05-01

Acoustic cluster technology (ACT) is a two-component, microparticle formulation platform being developed for ultrasound-mediated drug delivery. Sonazoid microbubbles, which have a negative surface charge, are mixed with micron-sized perfluoromethylcyclopentane droplets stabilized with a positively charged surface membrane to form microbubble/microdroplet clusters. On exposure to ultrasound, the oil undergoes a phase change to the gaseous state, generating 20- to 40-μm ACT bubbles. An acoustic transmission technique is used to measure absorption and velocity dispersion of the ACT bubbles. An inversion technique computes bubble size population with temporal resolution of seconds. Bubble populations are measured both in vitro and in vivo after activation within the cardiac chambers of a dog model, with catheter-based flow through an extracorporeal measurement flow chamber. Volume-weighted mean diameter in arterial blood after activation in the left ventricle was 22 μm, with no bubbles >44 μm in diameter. After intravenous administration, 24.4% of the oil is activated in the cardiac chambers. Copyright © 2016 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Temporal Perspective on the Interplay of Demography and Selection on Deleterious Variation in Humans

PubMed Central

Koch, Evan; Novembre, John

2017-01-01

When mutations have small effects on fitness, population size plays an important role in determining the amount and nature of deleterious genetic variation. The extent to which recent population size changes have impacted deleterious variation in humans has been a question of considerable interest and debate. An emerging consensus is that the Out-of-Africa bottleneck and subsequent growth events have been too short to cause meaningful differences in genetic load between populations; though changes in the number and average frequencies of deleterious variants have taken place. To provide more support for this view and to offer additional insight into the divergent evolution of deleterious variation across populations, we numerically solve time-inhomogeneous diffusion equations and study the temporal dynamics of the frequency spectra in models of population size change for modern humans. We observe how the response to demographic change differs by the strength of selection, and we then assess whether similar patterns are observed in exome sequence data from 33,370 and 5203 individuals of non-Finnish European and West African ancestry, respectively. Our theoretical results highlight how even simple summaries of the frequency spectrum can have complex responses to demographic change. These results support the finding that some apparent discrepancies between previous results have been driven by the behaviors of the precise summaries of deleterious variation. Further, our empirical results make clear the difficulty of inferring slight differences in frequency spectra using recent next-generation sequence data. PMID:28159863

Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

PubMed

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let the characteristics of known natural environmental covariates (e.g., colour and distribution shape) guide us in our choice of how to best model the impact of coloured environmental variation on population dynamics.

Regional synchrony in full-scale activated sludge bioreactors due to deterministic microbial community assembly

PubMed Central

Griffin, James S; Wells, George F

2017-01-01

Seasonal community structure and regionally synchronous population dynamics have been observed in natural microbial ecosystems, but have not been well documented in wastewater treatment bioreactors. Few studies of community dynamics in full-scale activated sludge systems facing similar meteorological conditions have been done to compare the importance of deterministic and neutral community assembly mechanisms. We subjected weekly activated sludge samples from six regional full-scale bioreactors at four wastewater treatment plants obtained over 1 year to Illumina sequencing of 16S ribosomal RNA genes, resulting in a library of over 17 million sequences. All samples derived from reactors treating primarily municipal wastewater. Despite variation in operational characteristics and location, communities displayed temporal synchrony at the individual operational taxonomic unit (OTU), broad phylogenetic affiliation and community-wide scale. Bioreactor communities were dominated by 134 abundant and highly regionally synchronized OTU populations that accounted for over 50% of the total reads. Non-core OTUs displayed abundance-dependent population synchrony. Alpha diversity varied by reactor, but showed a highly reproducible and synchronous seasonal fluctuation. Community similarity was dominated by seasonal changes, but individual reactors maintained minor stable differences after 1 year. Finally, the impacts of mass migration driven by direct biomass transfers between reactors was investigated, but had no significant effect on community similarity or diversity in the sink community. Our results show that population dynamics in activated sludge bioreactors are consistent with niche-driven assembly guided by seasonal temperature fluctuations. PMID:27996980

Disrupted dynamic network reconfiguration of the language system in temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

He, Xiaosong; Bassett, Danielle S; Chaitanya, Ganne; Sperling, Michael R; Kozlowski, Lauren; Tracy, Joseph I

2018-05-01

Temporal lobe epilepsy tends to reshape the language system causing maladaptive reorganization that can be characterized by task-based functional MRI, and eventually can contribute to surgical decision making processes. However, the dynamic interacting nature of the brain as a complex system is often neglected, with many studies treating the language system as a static monolithic structure. Here, we demonstrate that as a specialized and integrated system, the language network is inherently dynamic, characterized by rich patterns of regional interactions, whose transient dynamics are disrupted in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. Specifically, we applied tools from dynamic network neuroscience to functional MRI data collected from 50 temporal lobe epilepsy patients and 30 matched healthy controls during performance of a verbal fluency task, as well as during rest. By assigning 16 language-related regions into four subsystems (i.e. bilateral frontal and temporal), we observed regional specialization in both the probability of transient interactions and the frequency of such changes, in both healthy controls and patients during task performance but not rest. Furthermore, we found that both left and right temporal lobe epilepsy patients displayed reduced interactions within the left frontal 'core' subsystem compared to the healthy controls, while left temporal lobe epilepsy patients were unique in showing enhanced interactions between the left frontal 'core' and the right temporal subsystems. Also, both patient groups displayed reduced flexibility in the transient interactions of the left temporal and right frontal subsystems, which formed the 'periphery' of the language network. Importantly, such group differences were again evident only during task condition. Lastly, through random forest regression, we showed that dynamic reconfiguration of the language system tracks individual differences in verbal fluency with superior prediction accuracy compared to traditional activation-based static measures. Our results suggest dynamic network measures may be an effective biomarker for detecting the language dysfunction associated with neurological diseases such as temporal lobe epilepsy, specifying both the type of neuronal communications that are missing in these patients and those that are potentially added but maladaptive. Further advancements along these lines, transforming how we characterize and map language networks in the brain, have a high probability of altering clinical decision making in neurosurgical centres.10.1093/brain/awy042_video1awy042media15754656112001.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact.

PubMed

Stevenson, Christopher M; Puleston, Cedric O; Vitousek, Peter M; Chadwick, Oliver A; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N

2015-01-27

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Christopher M.; Puleston, Cedric O.; Vitousek, Peter M.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N.

2015-01-01

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact. PMID:25561523

Irregular spiking of pyramidal neurons organizes as scale-invariant neuronal avalanches in the awake state

PubMed Central

Bellay, Timothy; Klaus, Andreas; Seshadri, Saurav; Plenz, Dietmar

2015-01-01

Spontaneous fluctuations in neuronal activity emerge at many spatial and temporal scales in cortex. Population measures found these fluctuations to organize as scale-invariant neuronal avalanches, suggesting cortical dynamics to be critical. Macroscopic dynamics, though, depend on physiological states and are ambiguous as to their cellular composition, spatiotemporal origin, and contributions from synaptic input or action potential (AP) output. Here, we study spontaneous firing in pyramidal neurons (PNs) from rat superficial cortical layers in vivo and in vitro using 2-photon imaging. As the animal transitions from the anesthetized to awake state, spontaneous single neuron firing increases in irregularity and assembles into scale-invariant avalanches at the group level. In vitro spike avalanches emerged naturally yet required balanced excitation and inhibition. This demonstrates that neuronal avalanches are linked to the global physiological state of wakefulness and that cortical resting activity organizes as avalanches from firing of local PN groups to global population activity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07224.001 PMID:26151674

Choice-specific sequences in parietal cortex during a virtual-navigation decision task

PubMed Central

Harvey, Christopher D.; Coen, Philip; Tank, David W.

2012-01-01

The posterior parietal cortex (PPC) plays an important role in many cognitive behaviors; however, the neural circuit dynamics underlying PPC function are not well understood. Here we optically imaged the spatial and temporal activity patterns of neuronal populations in mice performing a PPC-dependent task that combined a perceptual decision and memory-guided navigation in a virtual environment. Individual neurons had transient activation staggered relative to one another in time, forming a sequence of neuronal activation spanning the entire length of a task trial. Distinct sequences of neurons were triggered on trials with opposite behavioral choices and defined divergent, choice-specific trajectories through a state space of neuronal population activity. Cells participating in the different sequences and at distinct time points in the task were anatomically intermixed over microcircuit length scales (< 100 micrometers). During working memory decision tasks the PPC may therefore perform computations through sequence-based circuit dynamics, rather than long-lived stable states, implemented using anatomically intermingled microcircuits. PMID:22419153

Integrated management of waterbirds: Beyond the conventional

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.

2002-01-01

Integrated waterbird management over the past few decades has implicitly referred to methods for managing wetlands that usually attempt to enhance habitat for taxonomic groups such as shorebirds and wading birds, in addition to waterfowl, the traditional focus group. Here I describe five elements of integration in management: taxonomic, spatial, temporal, population and habitat, and multiple-use management objectives. Spatial integration simply expands the scale of management concern. Rather than emphasizing management on a very limited number of impoundments or wetlands in small refuges or wildlife management areas, the vision is beginning to shift to connectivity within larger landscapes on the order of many square kilometers as telemetry data on daily and seasonal movements for many species become available. Temporal integration refers to the potential for either simultaneous management for waterbirds and commercial "crops" (e.g., crayfish and rice) or for temporally-staggered management such as row crop production in spring-summer growing seasons and waterbird management on fallow fields in the non-growing (winter) season. Integrating population dynamics with habitats has become a major research focus over the past decade. Identifying which wetlands are "sources" or "sinks" for specific populations provides managers with critical information about effective management. Further, the applications of spatially explicit population models place heavy demands on researchers to identify use patterns for breeding and dispersing individuals by age, sex, and reproductive class. Population viability analysis models require much the same information. Finally, multiple-use management integration refers to trying to optimize the uses of wetlands, when only one (perhaps secondary) use may include waterbird management. Depending upon the ownership and primary land use of a particular parcel of land containing wetlands and/or water bodies, managing for waterbirds may be an "easy sell" (e.g., public natural resource lands) or a very contentious one, where wetlands are created for industrial, aquaculture or urban uses. In the latter case, careful planning and implementation require broad stakeholder participation and education.

Integrated management of waterbirds: Beyond the conventional

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Parsons, Katharine C.; Brown, Stephen C.; Erwin, R. Michael; Czech, Helen A.; Coulson, John C.

2002-01-01

Integrated waterbird management over the past few decades has implicitly referred to methods for managing wetlands that usually attempt to enhance habitat for taxonomic groups such as shorebirds and wading birds, in addition to waterfowl, the traditional focus group. Here I describe five elements of integration in management: taxonomic, spatial, temporal, population and habitat, and multiple-use management objectives. Spatial integration simply expands the scale of management concern. Rather than emphasizing management on a very limited number of impoundments or wetlands in small refuges or wildlife management areas, the vision is beginning to shift to connectivity within larger landscapes on the order of many square kilometers as telemetry data on daily and seasonal movements for many species become available. Temporal integration refers to the potential for either simultaneous management for waterbirds and commercial 'crops' (e.g., crayfish and rice) or for temporally-staggered management such as row crop production in spring-summer growing seasons and waterbird management on fallow fields in the non-growing (winter) season. Integrating population dynamics with habitats has become a major research focus over the past decade. Identifying which wetlands are ?sources? or ?sinks? for specific populations provides managers with critical information about effective management. Further, the applications of spatially explicit population models place heavy demands on researchers to identify use patterns for breeding and dispersing individuals by age, sex, and reproductive class. Population viability analysis models require much the same information. Finally, multiple-use management integration refers to trying to optimize the uses of wetlands, when only one (perhaps secondary) use may include waterbird management. Depending upon the ownership and primary land use of a particular parcel of land containing wetlands and/or water bodies, managing for waterbirds may be an ?easy sell? (e.g., public natural resource lands) or a very contentious one, where wetlands are created for industrial, aquaculture or urban uses. In the latter case, careful planning and implementation require broad stakeholder participation and education.

Hierarchical coarse-graining model for photosystem II including electron and excitation-energy transfer processes.

PubMed

Matsuoka, Takeshi; Tanaka, Shigenori; Ebina, Kuniyoshi

2014-03-01

We propose a hierarchical reduction scheme to cope with coupled rate equations that describe the dynamics of multi-time-scale photosynthetic reactions. To numerically solve nonlinear dynamical equations containing a wide temporal range of rate constants, we first study a prototypical three-variable model. Using a separation of the time scale of rate constants combined with identified slow variables as (quasi-)conserved quantities in the fast process, we achieve a coarse-graining of the dynamical equations reduced to those at a slower time scale. By iteratively employing this reduction method, the coarse-graining of broadly multi-scale dynamical equations can be performed in a hierarchical manner. We then apply this scheme to the reaction dynamics analysis of a simplified model for an illuminated photosystem II, which involves many processes of electron and excitation-energy transfers with a wide range of rate constants. We thus confirm a good agreement between the coarse-grained and fully (finely) integrated results for the population dynamics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of speckle/pixel size ratio on temporal and spatial speckle-contrast analysis of dynamic scattering systems: Implications for measurements of blood-flow dynamics.

PubMed

Ramirez-San-Juan, J C; Mendez-Aguilar, E; Salazar-Hermenegildo, N; Fuentes-Garcia, A; Ramos-Garcia, R; Choi, B

2013-01-01

Laser Speckle Contrast Imaging (LSCI) is an optical technique used to generate blood flow maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. It is well known that in LSCI, the speckle size must exceed the Nyquist criterion to maximize the speckle's pattern contrast. In this work, we study experimentally the effect of speckle-pixel size ratio not only in dynamic speckle contrast, but also on the calculation of the relative flow speed for temporal and spatial analysis. Our data suggest that the temporal LSCI algorithm is more accurate at assessing the relative changes in flow speed than the spatial algorithm.

Alcohol Tax Policy and Related Mortality. An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of a Rapidly Developed Chinese Population, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Chung, Roger Y.; Kim, Jean H.; Yip, Benjamin H.; Wong, Samuel Y. S.; Wong, Martin C. S.; Chung, Vincent C. H.; Griffiths, Sian M.

2014-01-01

To delineate the temporal dynamics between alcohol tax policy changes and related health outcomes, this study examined the age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality in relation to changes in government alcohol policies. We used the age-period-cohort modeling to analyze retrospective mortality data over 30 years from 1981 to 2010 in a rapidly developed Chinese population, Hong Kong. Alcohol-related mortality from 1) chronic causes, 2) acute causes, 3) all (chronic+acute) causes and 4) causes 100% attributable to alcohol, as defined according to the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) criteria developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, were examined. The findings illustrated the possible effects of alcohol policy changes on adult alcohol-related mortality. The age-standardized mortality trends were generally in decline, with fluctuations that coincided with the timing of the alcohol policy changes. The age-period-cohort analyses demonstrated possible temporal dynamics between alcohol policy changes and alcohol-related mortality through the period effects, and also generational impact of alcohol policy changes through the cohort effects. Based on the illustrated association between the dramatic increase of alcohol imports in the mid-1980s and the increased alcohol-related mortality risk of the generations coming of age of majority at that time, attention should be paid to generations coming of drinking age during the 2007–2008 duty reduction. PMID:25153324

Modeling mesoscopic cortical dynamics using a mean-field model of conductance-based networks of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Zerlaut, Yann; Chemla, Sandrine; Chavane, Frederic; Destexhe, Alain

2018-02-01

Voltage-sensitive dye imaging (VSDi) has revealed fundamental properties of neocortical processing at macroscopic scales. Since for each pixel VSDi signals report the average membrane potential over hundreds of neurons, it seems natural to use a mean-field formalism to model such signals. Here, we present a mean-field model of networks of Adaptive Exponential (AdEx) integrate-and-fire neurons, with conductance-based synaptic interactions. We study a network of regular-spiking (RS) excitatory neurons and fast-spiking (FS) inhibitory neurons. We use a Master Equation formalism, together with a semi-analytic approach to the transfer function of AdEx neurons to describe the average dynamics of the coupled populations. We compare the predictions of this mean-field model to simulated networks of RS-FS cells, first at the level of the spontaneous activity of the network, which is well predicted by the analytical description. Second, we investigate the response of the network to time-varying external input, and show that the mean-field model predicts the response time course of the population. Finally, to model VSDi signals, we consider a one-dimensional ring model made of interconnected RS-FS mean-field units. We found that this model can reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns seen in VSDi of awake monkey visual cortex as a response to local and transient visual stimuli. Conversely, we show that the model allows one to infer physiological parameters from the experimentally-recorded spatio-temporal patterns.

Temporal dynamics of the primary human T cell response to yellow fever virus 17D as it matures from an effector- to a memory-type response.

PubMed

Blom, Kim; Braun, Monika; Ivarsson, Martin A; Gonzalez, Veronica D; Falconer, Karolin; Moll, Markus; Ljunggren, Hans-Gustaf; Michaëlsson, Jakob; Sandberg, Johan K

2013-03-01

The live attenuated yellow fever virus (YFV) 17D vaccine provides a good model to study immune responses to an acute viral infection in humans. We studied the temporal dynamics, composition, and character of the primary human T cell response to YFV. The acute YFV-specific effector CD8 T cell response was broad and complex; it was composed of dominant responses that persisted into the memory population, as well as of transient subdominant responses that were not detected at the memory stage. Furthermore, HLA-A2- and HLA-B7-restricted YFV epitope-specific effector cells predominantly displayed a CD45RA(-)CCR7(-)PD-1(+)CD27(high) phenotype, which transitioned into a CD45RA(+)CCR7(-)PD-1(-)CD27(low) memory population phenotype. The functional profile of the YFV-specific CD8 T cell response changed in composition as it matured from an effector- to a memory-type response, and it tended to become less polyfunctional during the course of this transition. Interestingly, activation of CD4 T cells, as well as FOXP3(+) T regulatory cells, in response to YFV vaccination preceded the kinetics of the CD8 T cell response. The present results contribute to our understanding of how immunodominance patterns develop, as well as the phenotypic and functional characteristics of the primary human T cell response to a viral infection as it evolves and matures into memory.

Subjective visual perception: from local processing to emergent phenomena of brain activity.

PubMed

Panagiotaropoulos, Theofanis I; Kapoor, Vishal; Logothetis, Nikos K

2014-05-05

The combination of electrophysiological recordings with ambiguous visual stimulation made possible the detection of neurons that represent the content of subjective visual perception and perceptual suppression in multiple cortical and subcortical brain regions. These neuronal populations, commonly referred to as the neural correlates of consciousness, are more likely to be found in the temporal and prefrontal cortices as well as the pulvinar, indicating that the content of perceptual awareness is represented with higher fidelity in higher-order association areas of the cortical and thalamic hierarchy, reflecting the outcome of competitive interactions between conflicting sensory information resolved in earlier stages. However, despite the significant insights into conscious perception gained through monitoring the activities of single neurons and small, local populations, the immense functional complexity of the brain arising from correlations in the activity of its constituent parts suggests that local, microscopic activity could only partially reveal the mechanisms involved in perceptual awareness. Rather, the dynamics of functional connectivity patterns on a mesoscopic and macroscopic level could be critical for conscious perception. Understanding these emergent spatio-temporal patterns could be informative not only for the stability of subjective perception but also for spontaneous perceptual transitions suggested to depend either on the dynamics of antagonistic ensembles or on global intrinsic activity fluctuations that may act upon explicit neural representations of sensory stimuli and induce perceptual reorganization. Here, we review the most recent results from local activity recordings and discuss the potential role of effective, correlated interactions during perceptual awareness.

Connecting Mobility to Infectious Diseases: The Promise and Limits of Mobile Phone Data.

PubMed

Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Engø-Monsen, Kenth; Metcalf, C J E

2016-12-01

Human travel can shape infectious disease dynamics by introducing pathogens into susceptible populations or by changing the frequency of contacts between infected and susceptible individuals. Quantifying infectious disease-relevant travel patterns on fine spatial and temporal scales has historically been limited by data availability. The recent emergence of mobile phone calling data and associated locational information means that we can now trace fine scale movement across large numbers of individuals. However, these data necessarily reflect a biased sample of individuals across communities and are generally aggregated for both ethical and pragmatic reasons that may further obscure the nuance of individual and spatial heterogeneities. Additionally, as a general rule, the mobile phone data are not linked to demographic or social identifiers, or to information about the disease status of individual subscribers (although these may be made available in smaller-scale specific cases). Combining data on human movement from mobile phone data-derived population fluxes with data on disease incidence requires approaches that can tackle varying spatial and temporal resolutions of each data source and generate inference about dynamics on scales relevant to both pathogen biology and human ecology. Here, we review the opportunities and challenges of these novel data streams, illustrating our examples with analyses of 2 different pathogens in Kenya, and conclude by outlining core directions for future research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.