Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

the administration’s plans to de - ploy BMD components in Bulgaria and Romania by 2015, and has fiercely criticized global zero both in terms of the...Military Doctrine, Moscow tried to fight off politically and diplomatically the expanding U.S. BMD program and, in particular, U.S. plans to de - ploy a...has encountered major de - lays and its future remains uncertain. Modernization of the air leg has been postponed—Russia plans to rely on existing

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

The Investment Policy Statement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

2011-01-01

Successful investing for long-term funds requires a strategic plan. This is true despite--indeed, because of--the fact that the future is unknowable. The plan must be specific, embodying in concrete terms the best thinking of the board of trustees about the investment pool, its goals and purposes; but it also needs to be sufficiently flexible to…

An Assessment of Future Educational and Occupational Plans for Brevard Community College Technical Program Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehead, Everett

This practicum studies the future educational and/or occupational plans of 223 technical program students enrolled in Brevard Community College (BCC) during the Fall 1973 term in order to suggest adjustments in college procedures to facilitate student transition to continued college or to their chosen professions. The characteristics of technical…

Everett Transit 1994,Comprehensive Plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-09-07

Everett Transit's Comprehensive Plann provides the long-term framework to guide : the development of public transportation services in Everett over the next : twenty years. In this plan, Everett Transit clearly defines its mission, future : direction...

Planning for future care needs: experiences of unmarried heterosexual and sexual minority women.

PubMed

Clark, Melissa A; Boehmer, Ulrike; Rogers, Michelle L; Sullivan, Mairead

2010-10-01

This study examined the experiences of legally unmarried, middle-aged and older sexual minority (e.g., lesbian, bisexual) and heterosexual women in planning for future care needs and long-term assistance. A total of 215 women (90 sexual minority women and 125 heterosexual women) 41-78 years of age completed a survey about long-term care planning strategies, including: (1) executing a will; (2) naming a health care proxy; (3) purchasing long-term care insurance; and (4) discussing potential living arrangements with at least one family member. Overall, 18.5% of women reported completing zero of the strategies, and 3.4% reported completing all four. Over half (59%) had completed at least two strategies. Women were most likely to have executed a will (68%) and named a health care proxy (61%). Both sexual minority women and heterosexual women were most likely to have talked to a family member of choice, rather than a biological family member about living with them if they were unable to care for themselves. Currently, serving as a health care proxy was an important correlate for having made long-term care plans and was particularly important for sexual minority women. Women who are not in traditional marriage relationships tend to adopt long-term care planning strategies that legally clarify and establish the nature of their important relationships.

Care plans and care planning in long-term conditions: a conceptual model.

PubMed

Burt, Jenni; Rick, Jo; Blakeman, Thomas; Protheroe, Joanne; Roland, Martin; Bower, Pete

2014-10-01

The prevalence and impact of long-term conditions continues to rise. Care planning for people with long-term conditions has been a policy priority for chronic disease management in a number of health-care systems. However, patients and providers appear unclear about the formulation and implementation of care planning. Further work in this area is therefore required to inform the development, implementation and evaluation of future care planning initiatives. We distinguish between 'care planning' (the process by which health-care professionals and patients discuss, agree and review an action plan to achieve the goals or behaviour change of most relevance and concern to the patient) and a 'care plan' (a written document recording the outcome of a care planning process). We propose a typology of care planning and care plans with three core dimensions: perspective (patient or professional), scope (a focus on goals or on behaviours) and networks (confined to the professional-patient dyad or extending to the entire care network). In addition, we draw on psychological models of mediation and moderation to outline potential mechanisms through which care planning and care plans may lead to improved outcomes for both patients and the wider health-care system. The proposed typology of care planning and care plans offered here, along with the model of the process by which care planning may influence outcomes, provide a useful framework for future policy developments and evaluations. Empirical work is required to explore the degree to which current care planning approaches and care plans can be described according to these dimensions, and the factors that determine which types of patients and professionals use which type of care plans.

Carbon Dioxide Removal and the futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, A.; Coffman, D.

2016-12-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for performance on a contract at some later date. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded over-the-counter between two independent parties. Both futures and forward contracts are commonly used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the use of potential use of exchange-traded futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets. We conclude that they have one principal advantage (in that they give near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (in that a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge great caution in the use of this approach. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. Whilst regulation offers generally increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach - finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Looking ahead? Computerized maze task performance by chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta), capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella), and human children (Homo sapiens).

PubMed

Beran, Michael J; Parrish, Audrey E; Futch, Sara E; Evans, Theodore A; Perdue, Bonnie M

2015-05-01

Human and nonhuman primates are not mentally constrained to the present. They can remember the past and-at least to an extent-anticipate the future. Anticipation of the future ranges from long-term prospection such as planning for retirement to more short-term future-oriented cognition such as planning a route through a maze. Here we tested a great ape species (chimpanzees), an Old World monkey species (rhesus macaques), a New World monkey species (capuchin monkeys), and human children on a computerized maze task. All subjects had to move a cursor through a maze to reach a goal at the bottom of the screen. For best performance on the task, subjects had to "plan ahead" to the end of the maze to move the cursor in the correct direction, avoid traps, and reverse directions if necessary. Mazes varied in difficulty. Chimpanzees were better than both monkey species, and monkeys showed a particular deficit when moving away from the goal or changing directions was required. Children showed a similar pattern to monkeys regarding the effects of reversals and moves away from the goal, but their overall performance in terms of correct maze completion was similar to the chimpanzees. The results highlight similarities as well as differences in planning across species and the role that inhibitory control may play in future-oriented cognition in primates. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

77 FR 57637 - Shipping Coordinating Committee; Notice of Committee Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-18

... --Report of the Secretary-General on credentials --Strategy, planning and reform --Resource management... --Recommendations of the External Auditor: implementation action plan --Report on arrears of contributions and of... considerations for 2012 and 2013 --Development of a long-term plan for the future financial sustainability of the...

Care plans and care planning in long term conditions: a conceptual model

PubMed Central

Burt, J; Rick, J; Blakeman, T; Protheroe, J; Roland, M; Bower, P

2013-01-01

The prevalence and impact of long term conditions continues to rise. Care planning for people with long term conditions has been a policy priority for chronic disease management in a number of health care systems. However, patients and providers appear unclear about the formulation and implementation of care planning. Further work in this area is therefore required to inform the development, implementation and evaluation of future care planning initiatives. We distinguish between ‘care planning’ (the process by which health care professionals and patients discuss, agree and review an action plan to achieve the goals or behaviour change of most relevance and concern to the patient) and a ‘care plan’ (a written document recording the outcome of a care planning process). We propose a typology of care planning and care plans with three core dimensions: perspective (patient or professional), scope (a focus on goals or on behaviours) and networks (confined to the professional-patient dyad or extending to the entire care network). In addition, we draw on psychological models of mediation and moderation to outline potential mechanisms through which care planning and care plans may lead to improved outcomes for both patients and the wider health care system. The proposed typology of care planning and care plans offered here, along with the model of the process by which care planning may influence outcomes, provide a useful framework for future policy developments and evaluations. Empirical work is required to explore the degree to which current care planning approaches and care plans can be described according to these dimensions, and the factors that determine which types of patients and professionals use which type of care plans. PMID:23883621

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of windmore » power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.« less

NASA earth science and applications division: The program and plans for FY 1988-1989-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Described here are the Division's research goals, priorities and emphases for the next several years and an outline of longer term plans. Included are highlights of recent accomplishments, current activities in FY 1988, research emphases in FY 1989, and longer term future plans. Data and information systems, the Geodynamics Program, the Land Processes Program, the Oceanic Processes Program, the Atmospheric Dynamics and Radiation Program, the Atmospheric Chemistry Program, and space flight programs are among the topic covered.

The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Perceptions of Learning Organization Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haeffner, Melissa; Leone, Deanna; Coons, Laura; Chermack, Thomas

2012-01-01

Scenario planning is often used by organizations to think about future uncertainties. However, what it does in terms of changing perceptions is difficult to assess and quantify. To address this need, this article builds on previous studies documenting the effectiveness of scenario planning. Specifically, this article contributes to the data on…

Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

Demographic Planning: An Action Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, Harold L.; Smith, Joyce

1974-01-01

Community colleges are in a good position to obtain reliable long-term forecasts of future demand. An approach developed at Johnson County Community College in Overland Park, Kansas, has enabled the college to assist other community institutions in their parallel planning efforts. (Author/MLF)

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit".

PubMed

Boden, Lisa A; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J

2017-01-01

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological "risk factors") and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities.

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of “Brexit”

PubMed Central

Boden, Lisa A.; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J.

2017-01-01

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors”) and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities. PMID:29230402

LaRC 20-Year Center Revitalization Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mangum, Cathy H.; Harris, Charles E.; Allen, Cheryl L.; Craft, Stephen J.; Hope, Drew J.; Kegelman, Jerome T.; Mastaler, Michael D; Weiser, Erik S.

2012-01-01

LaRC has developed a 20-Year Center Revitalization Plan. The objective of this plan is to assure that the center infrastructure is sustainable for the long-term and that the center will have the essential facilities and laboratories to execute the future NASA mission. The plan was developed by a centerwide team, VITAL, and was approved by the Center Leadership Council (CLC) in March 2012. The revitalization plan will be implemented through the Center Master Planning process.

Bottomland hardwood restoration in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley: Looking past the trees to see the forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, R.R.; Oliver, J.M.; Twedt, D.J.; Uihlein, W.B.; Fredrickson, L.H.; King, S.L.; Kaminski, R.M.

2005-01-01

Planned restoration of bottomland hardwoods is important to adequately address negative consequences resulting from the severe loss and fragmentation of forested wetlands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Reforestation efforts have been promoted through government initiatives of state and federal agencies (e.g. Wetland Reserve Program) and private conservation groups. To clarify discussions of forested wetland restoration, we offer definitions of reforestation and restoration, review historic reforestation practices, identify additional needs, and propose a conceptual framework to assist in future reforestation efforts. Future reforestation efforts should include: (1) comprehensive planning among participating agencies, (2) standardized documentation of methods, and (3) short-term and long-term monitoring protocols that permit refinement of methodologies. Implementation of these concepts will promote cooperative planning among participants and facilitate research to evaluate bottomland hardwood restoration efforts.

Producing Distance Learning Materials: Cash and Other Constraints.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehead, Don J.

In order to develop a financial plan for and identify constraints on the production of distance learning materials, a total human resources development (HRD) plan must be produced, and endorsed by the highest level of management. The HRD plan sets out the human resources needed to secure the organization's future in terms of people and their…

Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Zeng, R.; Valocchi, A. J.; Song, J.

2012-12-01

Droughts continue to be a major natural hazard and mounting evidence of global warming confronts society with a pressing question: Will climate change aggravate the risk of drought at local scale? It is important to explore what additional risk will be imposed by climate change and what level of strategic measures should be undertaken now to avoid vulnerable situations in the future, given that tactical measures may not avoid large damage. This study addresses the following key questions on strategic planning for drought mitigation under climate change: What combination of strategic and tactical measures will move the societal system response from a vulnerable situation to a resilient one with minimum cost? Are current infrastructures and their operation enough to mitigate the damage of future drought, or do we need in-advance infrastructure expansion for future drought preparedness? To address these questions, this study presents a decision support framework based on a coupled simulation and optimization model. A quasi-physically based watershed model is established for the Frenchman Creek Basin (FCB), part of the Republic River Basin, where groundwater based irrigation plays a significant role in agriculture production and local hydrological cycle. The physical model is used to train a statistical surrogate model, which predicts the watershed responses under future climate conditions. The statistical model replaces the complex physical model in the simulation-optimization framework, which makes the models computationally tractable. Decisions for drought preparedness include traditional short-term tactical measures (e.g. facility operation) and long-term or in-advance strategic measures, which require capital investment. A scenario based three-stage stochastic optimization model assesses the roles of strategic measures and tactical measures in drought preparedness and mitigation. Two benchmark climate prediction horizons, 2040s and 2090s, represent mid-term and long-term planning, respectively, compared to the baseline of the climate of 1980-2000. To handle uncertainty in climate change projections, outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Climate Model (RCM) for dynamic downscaling (PCM-RCM, Hadley-RCM, and CCSM-RCM) and four CO2 emission scenarios are used to represent the various possible climatic conditions in the mid-term (2040's) and long-term (2090's) time horizons. The model results show the relative roles of mid- and long-term investments and the complementary relationships between wait-and-see decisions and here-and-now decisions on infrastructure expansion. Even the best tactical measures (irrigation operation) alone are not sufficient for drought mitigation in the future. Infrastructure expansion is critical especially for environmental conversation purposes. With increasing budget, investment should be shifted from tactical measures to strategic measures for drought preparedness. Infrastructure expansion is preferred for the long term plan than the mid-term plan, i.e., larger investment is proposed in 2040s than the current, due to a larger likelihood of drought in 2090s than 2040s. Thus larger BMP expansion is proposed in 2040s for droughts preparedness in 2090s.

The Importance of Human Resource Planning in Industrial Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koltnerová, Kristína; Chlpeková, Andrea; Samáková, Jana

2012-12-01

Human resource planning in the business practice should represent generally used and key activity for human resource management because human resource planning helps to make optimum utilisation of the human resources in the enterprise and it helps to avoid wastage of human resources. Human resource planning allows to forecast the future manpower requirements and also to forecast the number and type of employees who will be required by the enterprise in a near future. In the long term period, success of any enterprise depends on whether the right people are in the right places at the right time, which is the nature of human resource planning. The aim of this contribution is to explain the importance of human resource planning and to outline results of questionnaire survey which it was realized in industrial enterprises.

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

PubMed

Stavem, K

2000-01-10

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING THE GLOBAL CARBON FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The atmospheric level of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant variable in the anthropogenic influence of future global climate change. Thus, it is critical to understand the long-term factors affecting its level, especially the longer-range technological considerations. Most rece...

Status of the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET): overview of the network and future plans, new version 3 data products, and the polarized MPL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welton, Ellsworth J.; Stewart, Sebastian A.; Lewis, Jasper R.; Belcher, Larry R.; Campbell, James R.; Lolli, Simone

2018-04-01

The NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) is a global federated network of Micro-Pulse Lidars (MPL) co-located with the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). MPLNET began in 2000, and there are currently 17 long-term sites, numerous field campaigns, and more planned sites on the way. We have developed a new Version 3 processing system including the deployment of polarized MPLs across the network. Here we provide an overview of Version 3, the polarized MPL, and current and future plans.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems - Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamley, John A.; Mccallum, Peter W.; Sandifer, Carl E., II; Sutliff, Thomas J.; Zakrajsek, June F.

2015-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program continues to plan and implement content to enable planetary exploration where such systems could be needed, and to prepare more advanced RPS technology for possible infusion into future power systems. The 2014-2015 period saw significant changes, and strong progress. Achievements of near-term objectives have enabled definition of a clear path forward in which payoffs from research investments and other sustaining efforts can be applied. The future implementation path is expected to yield a higher-performing thermoelectric generator design, a more isotope-fuel efficient system concept design, and a robust RPS infrastructure maintained effectively within both NASA and the Department of Energy. This paper describes recent work with an eye towards the future plans that result from these achievements.

Space transportation systems within ESA programmes: Current status and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delahais, Maurice

1993-03-01

An overview of the space transportation aspects of the ESA (European Space Agency) programs as they result from history, present status, and decisions taken at the ministerial level conference in Granada, Spain is presented. The new factors taken into consideration for the long term plan proposed in Munich, Germany, the three strategic options for the reorientation of the ESA long term plan, and the essential elements of space transportation in the Granada long term plan in three areas of space activities, scientific, and commercial launches with expendable launch vehicles, manned flight and in-orbit infrastructure, and future transportation systems are outlined. The new ESA long term plan, in the field of space transportation systems, constitutes a reorientation of the initial program contemplated in previous councils at ministerial level. It aims at balancing the new economic situation with the new avenues of cooperation, and the outcome will be a new implementation of the space transportation systems policy.

Presidential address, 1995. Surgery 2000: a look back to the future

PubMed Central

Heughan, Christopher

1996-01-01

The present demoralized state of Canadian surgery is due to a number of short-term influences. They include financial restraints, the desire of government agencies to off-load blame for unpopular decisions onto doctors and altered public expectations. The major long-term challenge will be a shortage of physicians and a severe shortage of general surgeons because of the superimposition of longer-term trends in medical demographics on short-term political reactions to a perceived oversupply of doctors. General surgeons need to identify the significant, long-term threats and challenges. If they can do this and plan their responses knowledgably, with some measure of altruism, the future in general surgery will be a bright one for present and future residents and medical students. PMID:8640616

Focus Your Future: A Woman's Guide to Retirement Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Association of Retired Persons, Washington, DC.

This guidebook addresses retirement planning for midlife women. Section 1 presents the woman an opportunity to assess herself today in terms of the roles she plays in various aspects of her life and in her relationships with others. It asks her to consider some of her plans, dreams, and things she would like to do in an ideal retirement situation.…

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Global Climate Data to Inform Long-Term Water Planning Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Water managers throughout the world are working to consider climate change in their long-term water planning processes. The best available information regarding plausible future hydrologic conditions are largely derived from global circulation models and from paleoclimate data. To date there lacks a single approach for (1) utilizing these data in water management planning tools for analysis and (2) evaluating the myriad of possible adaptation options. This talk will describe several approaches being used at RAND to incorporate global projections of climate change into local, regional, and state-wide long-term water planning. It will draw on current work with the California Department of Water Resources and other local Western water agencies, and a recently completed project with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency. Work to date suggests that climate information can be assimilated into local water planning tools to help identify robust climate adaptation water management strategies.

Intergenerational equity and long-term stewardship plans.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hocking, E. K.

2002-02-05

For an untold number of contaminated sites throughout the world, stewardship will be inevitable. For many such sites, stewardship will be a reasonable approach because of the uncertainties associated with present and future site conditions and site contaminants, the limited performance of available technologies, the nonavailability of technologies, and the risk and cost associated with complete cleanup. Regardless of whether stewardship is a realistic approach to site situations or simply a convenient default, it could be required at most contaminated sites for multiple generations. Because the stewardship plan is required to protect the release of hazardous contaminants to the environment,more » some use restrictions will be put in place to provide that protection. These use restrictions will limit access to resources for as long as the protection is required. The intergenerational quality of long-term stewardship plans and their inherent limitations on resource use require that they be designed to achieve equity among the affected generations. Intergenerational equity, defined here as the fairness of access to resources across generations, could be achieved through a well-developed stewardship plan that provides future generations with the information they need to make wise decisions about resource use. Developing and implementing such a plan would take into account the failure mechanisms of the plan's components, feature short stewardship time blocks that would allow for periodic reassessments of the site and of the stewardship program's performance, and provide present and future generations with necessary site information.« less

Current and Future Challenges to Resourcing U.S. Navy Public Shipyards

DTIC Science & Technology

carriers. For this reason, the public shipyards are required to maintain core capabilities that the private sector does not maintain. In addition, they are ...has been on the rise. Direct man-days of work assigned to and executed by the shipyards have increased during that time and are planned to continue to...role in future workforce management as the initiatives are broadened. Planned increases in civilian staffing levels are necessary but not sufficient to mitigate near-term execution risk at the shipyards.

Picture this

Treesearch

Gary Bentrup; Gary Wells

2005-01-01

Despite the use of planting plans and engineering drawings, many landowners find it difficult to conceptualize what a future conservation practice or system will actually look like on their landscape. This lack of understanding can create challenging barriers in the planning process and is exacerbated by the long-term commitment that many conservation systems require...

14 CFR 1216.302 - Definition of key terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... performing in-house R&D and for planning, managing, and supporting contractor and grantee R&D), and for other... related facility equipment; design of facilities projects; and advance planning related to future facilities needs. (4) Space Flight, Control and Data Communications (SFCDC). Has similar scope to R&D but...

14 CFR 1216.302 - Definition of key terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... performing in-house R&D and for planning, managing, and supporting contractor and grantee R&D), and for other... related facility equipment; design of facilities projects; and advance planning related to future facilities needs. (4) Space Flight, Control and Data Communications (SFCDC). Has similar scope to R&D but...

14 CFR 1216.302 - Definition of key terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... performing in-house R&D and for planning, managing, and supporting contractor and grantee R&D), and for other... related facility equipment; design of facilities projects; and advance planning related to future facilities needs. (4) Space Flight, Control and Data Communications (SFCDC). Has similar scope to R&D but...

The Externalities Influencing Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Marcus

2007-01-01

Modern universities fully recognize the importance of strategic planning, but such planning tends to be short term (five years out). As a result, there is a tendency to assume that the future will greatly resemble the immediate present. While this is rational thinking, institutions do change quite dramatically because the alternative is to cease…

Understanding London's Water Supply Tradeoffs When Scheduling Interventions Under Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Matrosov, E. S.; Harou, J. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2015-12-01

Water supply planning in many major world cities faces several challenges associated with but not limited to climate change, population growth and insufficient land availability for infrastructure development. Long-term plans to maintain supply-demand balance and ecosystem services require careful consideration of uncertainties associated with future conditions. The current approach for London's water supply planning utilizes least cost optimization of future intervention schedules with limited uncertainty consideration. Recently, the focus of the long-term plans has shifted from solely least cost performance to robustness and resilience of the system. Identifying robust scheduling of interventions requires optimizing over a statistically representative sample of stochastic inputs which may be computationally difficult to achieve. In this study we optimize schedules using an ensemble of plausible scenarios and assess how manipulating that ensemble influences the different Pareto-approximate intervention schedules. We investigate how a major stress event's location in time as well as the optimization problem formulation influence the Pareto-approximate schedules. A bootstrapping method that respects the non-stationary trend of climate change scenarios and ensures the even distribution of the major stress event in the scenario ensemble is proposed. Different bootstrapped hydrological scenario ensembles are assessed using many-objective scenario optimization of London's future water supply and demand intervention scheduling. However, such a "fixed" scheduling of interventions approach does not aim to embed flexibility or adapt effectively as the future unfolds. Alternatively, making decisions based on the observations of occurred conditions could help planners who prefer adaptive planning. We will show how rules to guide the implementation of interventions based on observations may result in more flexible strategies.

Consumer health plan choice: current knowledge and future directions.

PubMed

Scanlon, D P; Chernew, M; Lave, J R

1997-01-01

A keystone of the competitive strategy in health insurance markets is the assumption that "consumers" can make informed choices based on the costs and quality of competing health plans, and that selection effects are not large. However, little is known about how individuals use information other than price in the decision making process. This review summarizes the state of knowledge about how individuals make choices among health plans and outlines an agenda for future research. We find that the existing literature on health plan choice is no longer sufficient given the widespread growth and acceptance of managed care, and the increased proportion of consumers' income now going toward the purchase of health plans. Instead, today's environment of health plan choice requires better understanding of how plan attributes other than price influence plan choice, how other variables such as health status interact with plan attributes in the decision making process, and how specific populations differ from one another in terms of the sensitivity of their health plan choices to these different types of variables.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the southwest, 2) review of the current state of extreme event climate science, 3) review what information is available about past extreme events in the southwest, 4) report the results of the 2012 workshop on climate change and extreme events, and 5) propose a method for combining this past information with current climate science information to produce estimates of possible future extreme events in sufficient detail to be useful to water resource managers.

Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents an innovative approach for replacement planning for aging water infrastructure given uncertain future conditions. We draw upon two existing methodologies to develop an integrated long-term replacement planning framework. We first expand the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to generate long-term planning timelines that incorporate drivers of investment related to both internal structural processes as well as changes in external operating conditions. Then, we use Engineering Options to explore different actions taken at key moments in this timeline. Contrasting to the traditionally more static approach to infrastructure design, designing the next generation of infrastructure so it can be changed incrementally is a promising method to safeguard current investments given future uncertainty. This up-front inclusion of structural options in the system actively facilitates future adaptation, transforming uncertainty management in infrastructure planning from reactive to more proactive. A two-part model underpins this approach. A simulation model generates diverse future conditions, allowing development of timelines of intervention moments in the structure's life. This feeds into an economic model, evaluating the lifetime performance of different replacement strategies, making explicit the value of different designs and their flexibility. A proof of concept study demonstrates this approach for a pumping station. The strategic planning timelines for this structure demonstrate that moments when capital interventions become necessary due to reduced functionality from structural degradation or changed operating conditions are widely spread over the structure's life. The disparate timing of these necessary interventions supports an incremental, adaptive mindset when considering end-of-life and replacement decisions. The analysis then explores different replacement decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the proposed new structure. Results show that incremental adaptive designs and incorporating options can improve economic performance, as compared to traditional, "build it once & build it big" designs. The benefit from incorporating flexibility varies with structural functionality, future conditions and the specific options examined.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Simulating Mission Command for Planning and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

mission plan. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Mission Planning, CPM , PERT, Simulation, DES, Simkit, Triangle Distribution, Critical Path 15. NUMBER OF...Battalion Task Force CO Company CPM Critical Path Method DES Discrete Event Simulation FA BAT Field Artillery Battalion FEL Future Event List FIST...management tools that can be utilized to find the critical path in military projects. These are the Critical Path Method ( CPM ) and the Program Evaluation and

No Worries about the Future: Young Adults' Perceptions of Risk and Opportunity while Attending Technical College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barabasch, Antje

2006-01-01

In this ever-changing economy, young adults must remain flexible and adaptable as they transition from school to work and plan their future life courses. It is difficult for today's youth to choose training programs which will guarantee them secure, long-term employment. As the future grows less predictable, greater uncertainty and risk are…

Market analysis of construction materials with recommendations for the future of the industry : final report, January 14, 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-14

Due to the volatility of current highway construction commodity prices, owners, contractors, and designers are facing serious challenges in both short-term estimating and long-term planning. Among these challenges is significant uncertainty about the...

Are Baby Boomers Who Care for their Older Parents Planning for their Own Future Long-Term Care Needs?

PubMed Central

FINKELSTEIN, EMILY S.; REID, M. CARRINGTON; KLEPPINGER, ALISON; PILLEMER, KARL; ROBISON, JULIE

2013-01-01

A rapidly expanding number of baby boomers provide care to aging parents. This study examines associations between caregiver status and outcomes related to awareness and anticipation of future long-term care (LTC) needs using 2007 Connecticut Long-Term Care Needs Assessment survey data. Baby boomers who were adult child caregivers (n = 353) vs. baby boomers who were not (n = 1242) were more likely to anticipate some future LTC needs and to have considered certain financing strategies. Although baby boomer adult child caregivers more readily anticipate some future LTC needs, they are not taking specific actions. It is important to address the need for public education directed towards those who are currently (or have recently completed) caring for aging parents. PMID:22239280

Pacific Megatrends in Education. PREL Briefing Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammond, Ormond W.

Organizations can try to see into the future by identifying and describing megatrends--the large social, economic, political, and technological changes that have long-term effects. Recognizing the extensive benefits of considering future shifts and trends in the strategic planning process, Pacific Resources for Education and Learning (PREL)…

The Future of Evaluation in a Climate of Federal Deregulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The future role and importance of educational evaluation are analyzed in terms of the Educational Consolidation and Improvement Act (1981), a block grant whose provisions minimize planning, reporting, evaluation and accountability requirements to ensure that national goals are met. The background in federal and state evaluation programs is…

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia.

PubMed

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M

2017-01-01

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia

PubMed Central

VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moilanen, Atte; Graham, Erin M.

2017-01-01

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species. PMID:28222199

Vincennes University: Pioneer in Cable TV

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beckes, Isaac K.

1972-01-01

The development of cable educational television at Vincennes University (Indiana) is discussed in terms of the financing, securing of franchises, educational goals and plans for future expansion. (RN)

Future time perspective and health behaviors: temporal framing of self-regulatory processes in physical exercise and dietary behaviors.

PubMed

Gellert, Paul; Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2012-04-01

Limitations in perceived lifetime can undermine long-term goal striving. Planning is supposed to translate intentions into health behaviors and to operate as a compensatory strategy to overcome goal striving deficits associated with a limited time perspective. Two longitudinal studies were conducted examining the compensatory role of planning: an online survey on fruit and vegetable consumption (N = 909; 16-78 years; follow-up at 4 months) and a questionnaire study on physical exercise in older adults (N = 289; 60-95 years, over a half-year period). Intentions, planning, and behavior were measured in a behavior-specific, future time perspective in a generic manner. Planning mediated between intentions and both health behaviors. Time perspective operated as a moderator, indicating that in individuals with a more limited time perspective, a stronger effect of planning on health behaviors emerged. Planning as a self-regulatory strategy may compensate for a limited time perspective.

Building a commercial enterprise : FY01-05 financial plan update : investing in the future of passenger rail : long-term capital plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

As we enter the 21st century, the nations transportation system is at a crossroads. After : building highway and aviation networks that are the envy of the world, increasing gridlock threatens to undermine the success of those investments and the ...

A strategic informatics approach to autoverification.

PubMed

Jones, Jay B

2013-03-01

Autoverification is rapidly expanding with increased functionality provided by middleware tools. It is imperative that autoverification of laboratory test results be viewed as a process evolving into a broader, more sophisticated form of decision support, which will require strategic planning to form a foundational tool set for the laboratory. One must strategically plan to expand autoverification in the future to include a vision of instrument-generated order interfaces, reflexive testing, and interoperability with other information systems. It is hoped that the observations, examples, and opinions expressed in this article will stimulate such short-term and long-term strategic planning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Energy Action Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conrad, M. D.; Ness, J. E.

2013-07-01

This document describes the three near-term energy strategies selected by the CNMI Energy Task Force during action planning workshops conducted in March 2013, and outlines the steps being taken to implement those strategies. The three energy strategies selected by the task force are (1) designing a demand-side management program focusing on utility, residential and commercial sectors, (2) developing an outreach and education plan focused on energy conservation in government agencies and businesses, including workplace rules, and (3) exploring waste-to-energy options. The task force also discussed several other medium- and long-term energy strategies that could be explored at a future date.

The future of financing for long-term care: the Own Your Future campaign.

PubMed

Iwasaki, Michiko; McCurry, Susan M; Borson, Soo; Jones, James A

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the outreach effort and impact of a joint federal-state campaign, Own Your Future, promoting awareness and planning for long-term care (LTC) in the state of Washington. The study applied survey methodology to evaluate the extent of campaign dissemination, evidence of its impact on LTC planning behaviors, and barriers to purchasing private LTC insurance. A total of 3,198 survey responses from a randomly selected community sample and a Washington State employee sample (ages 51 to 71) were analyzed. Results indicated that the impact of the campaign was limited, both with respect to awareness of the campaign itself and to initiation of LTC planning behaviors. Quantitative data revealed a high prevalence of health-related problems (e.g., obesity, diabetes), inadequate knowledge of basic LTC-related information (e.g., cost, payers), and negative attitudes toward purchasing LTC insurance among respondents. Qualitative analyses suggested that respondents perceived significant problems related to affordability and accountability within the current LTC insurance industry. These possible barriers to the purchase of LTC insurance suggest targets to be addressed by policy makers seeking to find ways to offset the public costs of LTC.

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space: Rationale for planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonputtkamer, J.

1976-01-01

The goals of NASA's space industralization program include contributing to increased productivity on earth without taxing the environment, generating new values through extraterrestrial productivity, and providing new growth options for the future which include the permanent settlement of space and long-range colonization and exploration projects. In planning the long-range space program based on essentially utilitarian aspects, without losing sight of the more humanistically significant long term, and to forecast associated technology requirements, a realistic approach is obtained by combining extrapolative and normative planning modes so that common stepping stones can be identified. In the extrapolative view, alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies. In the normative view, some ideal state in the far future is envisioned or postulated, and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment.

AGING & HEALTH Expectations About Future Use Of Long-Term Services And Supports Vary By CurrentLiving Arrangement

PubMed Central

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Shippee, Tetyana

2014-01-01

Most Americans know little about options for long-term services and supports and underestimate their likely future needs for such assistance. Using data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey, we examined expectations about future use of long-term services and supports among adults ages 40–65 and how these expectations varied by current living arrangement. We found differences by living arrangement in expectations about both future need for long-term services and supports and who would provide such care if needed. Respondents living with minor children were the least likely to expect to need long-term services and supports and to require paid care if the need arose. In contrast, respondents living alone were the most likely to expect that it was “very likely” that they would need long-term services and supports and to rely on paid care. Overall, we found a disconnect between expectations of use and likely future reality: 60 percent of respondents believed that they were unlikely to need long-term services and supports in the future, whereas the evidence suggests that nearly 70 percent of older adults will need them at some point. These findings both underscore the need for programs that encourage people to plan for long-term services and supports and indicate that information about living arrangements can be useful in developing and targeting such programs. PMID:25561642

Advances in Distributed Operations and Mission Activity Planning for Mars Surface Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, Jason M.; Norris, Jeffrey S.; Powell, Mark W.; Rabe, Kenneth J.; Shams, Khawaja

2006-01-01

A centralized mission activity planning system for any long-term mission, such as the Mars Exploration Rover Mission (MER), is completely infeasible due to budget and geographic constraints. A distributed operations system is key to addressing these constraints; therefore, future system and software engineers must focus on the problem of how to provide a secure, reliable, and distributed mission activity planning system. We will explain how Maestro, the next generation mission activity planning system, with its heavy emphasis on portability and distributed operations has been able to meet these design challenges. MER has been an excellent proving ground for Maestro's new approach to distributed operations. The backend that has been developed for Maestro could benefit many future missions by reducing the cost of centralized operations system architecture.

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Future Seabasing Technology Analysis: Logistics Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

tech- nologies in the MPF(F) and, thus, the sea base will be through back- fit. The lack of backfit plans and engineering-level designs has created...the challenge of backfitting, there are no current plans for funding the backfitting of logistics technologies on the MPF(F) ships. In the absence of...Because of the overlap between the near-term technology develop- ment and the shipbuilding schedule, ONR and the Navy need to plan for incorporating

Challenging Futures Studies To Enhance Participatory River Basin Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Helm, R.

Can the field of futures research help advance participatory management of river basins? This question is supposed to be answered by the present study of which this paper will mainly address the theoretical and conceptual point of view. The 2000 EU Framework directive on water emphasises at least two aspects that will mark the future management of river basins: the need for long-term planning, and a demand for participation. Neither the former nor the latter are new concepts as such, but its combination is in some sense revolutionary. Can long-term plans be made (and implemented) in a participative way, what tools could be useful in this respect, and does this lead to a satisfactory situation in terms of both reaching physical targets and enhancing social-institutional manageability? A possibly rich way to enter the discussion is to challenge futures research as a concept and a practice for enabling multiple stakeholders to design appropriate policies. Futures research is the overall field in which several methods and techniques (like scenario analysis) are mobilised to systematically think through and/or design the future. As such they have proven to be rich exercises to trigger ideas, stimulate debate and design desirable futures (and how to get there). More importantly these exercises have the capability to reconstitute actor relations, and by nature go beyond the institutional boundaries. Arguably the relation between futures research and the planning process is rather distant. Understandably commitments on the direct implementation of the results are hardly ever made, but its impact on changes in the capabilities of the network of actors involved may be large. As a hypothesis we consider that the distant link between an image of the future and the implementation in policy creates sufficient distance for actors to participate (in terms of responsibilities, legal constraints, etc.) and generate potentials, and enough degrees of freedom needed for a successful implementation. However, critical conceptual and design requirements have to be met in order to realise futures research potentials. Since the beginning of the 1990s futures studies are becoming (again) more and more widespread in many different domains (technology, education, urban development, agriculture, environment, etc.). Recently, experiences have been launched and are currently being launched in the water sector (of which the World Water Vision is a well -known - but not necessarily the most representative - example). Although futures studies on a river basin level are still scarce, they will offer already sufficient material for empirical analysis. The research, effectuated within a larger framework study on the implications of futures studies for environmental research, offers at this stage initially a conceptual understanding.

Advance care planning for nursing home residents with dementia: Influence of 'we DECide' on policy and practice.

PubMed

Ampe, Sophie; Sevenants, Aline; Smets, Tinne; Declercq, Anja; Van Audenhove, Chantal

2017-01-01

(1) To pilot 'we DECide' in terms of influence on advance care planning policy and practice in nursing home dementia care units. (2) To investigate barriers and facilitators for implementing 'we DECide'. This was a pre-test-post-test study in 18 nursing homes. Measurements included: compliance with best practice of advance care planning policy (ACP-audit); advance care planning practice (ACP criteria: degree to which advance care planning was discussed, and OPTION scale: degree of involvement of residents and families in conversations). Advance care planning policy was significantly more compliant with best practice after 'we DECide'; policy in the control group was not. Advance care planning was not discussed more frequently, nor were residents and families involved to a higher degree in conversations after 'we DECide'. Barriers to realizing advance care planning included staff's limited responsibilities; facilitators included support by management staff, and involvement of the whole organization. 'We DECide' had a positive influence on advance care planning policy. Daily practice, however, did not change. Future studies should pay more attention to long-term implementation strategies. Long-term implementation of advance care planning requires involvement of the whole organization and a continuing support system for health care professionals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fostering Partnerships between Education, Business and Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyslop, Alisha

2009-01-01

The need for skilled workers to continually innovate and drive economic prosperity lends credence to the idea of planning for the future--and career and technical education (CTE) programs can be at the center of both today's economic recovery and the long-term future of the country's workforce. One way that these two needs can intersect is through…

The Public Community College in America: Its History, Present Condition, and Future Outlook with Special Reference to Finance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Nancy Joan

The development, current status, and future prospects of community colleges are examined in this study with special emphasis on finance and funding concerns. Introductory material outlines study objectives, methodology, and purposes; defines key terms; and emphasizes the importance of college planning. Chapter 1 presents a history of the community…

Robust, Optimal Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty Using Metamodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, H. R.; Beh, E. H. Y.; Zheng, F.; Dandy, G. C.; Kapelan, Z.

2015-12-01

Optimal long-term planning plays an important role in many water infrastructure problems. However, this task is complicated by deep uncertainty about future conditions, such as the impact of population dynamics and climate change. One way to deal with this uncertainty is by means of robustness, which aims to ensure that water infrastructure performs adequately under a range of plausible future conditions. However, as robustness calculations require computationally expensive system models to be run for a large number of scenarios, it is generally computationally intractable to include robustness as an objective in the development of optimal long-term infrastructure plans. In order to overcome this shortcoming, an approach is developed that uses metamodels instead of computationally expensive simulation models in robustness calculations. The approach is demonstrated for the optimal sequencing of water supply augmentation options for the southern portion of the water supply for Adelaide, South Australia. A 100-year planning horizon is subdivided into ten equal decision stages for the purpose of sequencing various water supply augmentation options, including desalination, stormwater harvesting and household rainwater tanks. The objectives include the minimization of average present value of supply augmentation costs, the minimization of average present value of greenhouse gas emissions and the maximization of supply robustness. The uncertain variables are rainfall, per capita water consumption and population. Decision variables are the implementation stages of the different water supply augmentation options. Artificial neural networks are used as metamodels to enable all objectives to be calculated in a computationally efficient manner at each of the decision stages. The results illustrate the importance of identifying optimal staged solutions to ensure robustness and sustainability of water supply into an uncertain long-term future.

Watershed management in the United States in the 21st Century

Treesearch

David B. Thorud; George W. Brown; Brian J. Boyle; Clare M. Ryan

2000-01-01

Views of watershed management in the 21st Century are presented in terms of concept, status, progress and future of watershed planning. The watershed as a unit will increasingly be the basis of planning because the concept is widely understood, many state and federal laws require such a focus, and watersheds are a logical entity for monitoring purposes. Impediments to...

Robustness in practice--the regional planning of health services.

PubMed

Best, G; Parston, G; Rosenhead, J

1986-05-01

Earlier work has criticized the dominant tendencies in operational research contributions to health services planning as characterized by optimization, implausible demands for data, depoliticization, hierarchy and inflexibility. This paper describes an effort which avoids at least some of these pitfalls. The project was to construct a planning system for a regional health council in Ontario, Canada, which would take account of the possible alternative future states of the health-care system's environment and would aim to keep options for future development open. The planning system devised is described in the paper. It is based on robustness analysis, which evaluates alternative initial action sets in terms of the useful flexibility they preserve. Other features include the explicit incorporation of pressures for change generated outside the health-care system, and a satisficing approach to the identification of both initial action sets and alternative future configurations of the health-care system. It was found possible to borrow and radically 're-use' techniques or formulations from the mainstream of O.R. contributions. Thus the 'reference projection' method was used to identify inadequacies in performance which future health-care system configurations must repair. And Delphi analysis, normally a method for generating consensus, was used in conjunction with cluster analysis of responses to generate meaningfully different alternative futures.

Astrophysics science operations - Near-term plans and vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riegler, Guenter R.

1991-01-01

Astrophysics science operations planned by the Science Operations branch of NASA Astrophysics Division for the 1990s for the purpose of gathering spaceborne astronomical data are described. The paper describes the near-future plans of the Science Operations in the areas of the preparation of the proposal; the planning and execution of spaceborne observations; the collection, processing, and analysis data; and the dissemination of results. Also presented are concepts planned for introduction at the beginning of the 20th century, including the concepts of open communications, transparent instrument and observatory operations, a spiral requirements development method, and an automated research assistant.

NASA philosophy concerning space stations as operations centers for construction and maintenance of large orbiting energy systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freitag, R. F.

1976-01-01

Future United States plans for manned space-flight activities are summarized, emphasizing the long-term goals of achieving permanent occupancy and limited self-sufficiency in space. NASA-sponsored studies of earth-orbiting Space Station concepts are reviewed along with lessons learned from the Skylab missions. Descriptions are presented of the Space Transportation System, the Space Construction Base, and the concept of space industrialization (the processing and manufacturing of goods in space). Future plans for communications satellites, solar-power satellites, terrestrial observations from space stations, and manned orbital-transfer vehicles are discussed.

Defense.gov Special Report: Travels With Mullen

Science.gov Websites

. Must Discuss Future Military Relationship BAGHDAD, Dec. 13, 2010 - In a meeting with Iraq's prime Iraq to plan for a normal, long-term military-to-military relationship. Story Mullen Arrives in Baghdad

Time Perspective and Identity Formation: Short-Term Longitudinal Dynamics in College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luyckx, Koen; Lens, Willy; Smits, Ilse; Goossens, Luc

2010-01-01

Planning for the future and developing a personalized identity are conceived of as important developmental tasks that adolescents and emerging adults are confronted with on the pathway to adulthood. The present study set out to examine whether both tasks develop in tandem by using a short-term longitudinal dataset consisting of 371 college…

Higher Education and Peacebuilding--A Bridge between Communities?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rasheed, Rebeen A.; Munoz, Alexander

2016-01-01

As the Syrian civil war enters its fifth year, with over four million refugees and no solution in the near future, the international community must better consider long-term planning in regards to the plight of refugees and services to support them, not just short-term emergency responses. Critically, higher education is all too often ignored when…

The Topological Panorama Camera: A New Tool for Teaching Concepts Related to Space and Time.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelphman, Janet L.; And Others

1992-01-01

Included are the description, operating characteristics, uses, and future plans for the Topological Panorama Camera, which is an experimental, robotic photographic device capable of producing visual renderings of the mathematical characteristics of an equation in terms of position changes of an object or in terms of the shape of the space…

Will Today's Electronic Journals Be Accessible in the 23rd Century: Issues in Long-Term Archiving (SIG STI, IFP)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lippert, Margaret

2000-01-01

This abstract of a planned session on access to scientific and technical journals addresses policy and standard issues related to long-term archives; digital archiving models; economic factors; hardware and software issues; multi-publisher electronic journal content integration; format considerations; and future data migration needs. (LRW)

What Climate Information Do Water Managers Need to Make Robust, Long-Term Plans?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran, R.; Lempert, R.; Groves, D.

2008-12-01

What climate information do water managers need to respond to threat of climate change? Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) completed a long-range water resource management plan in 2005 that addressed expected economic and population growth in their service region, but did not consider the potential impacts of climate change. Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach for policy under deep uncertainty, we recently worked with IEUA to conduct a climate-change vulnerability and response options analysis of the agency's long-range plans. This analysis suggests that IEUA is vulnerable to future climate change, but can significantly reduce this vulnerability by increasing their near-term conservation programs and careful monitoring and updating to adjust their plan in the years ahead. In addition to helping IEUA, this analysis provides important guidance on the types of climate and other information that can be most useful for water managers as they attempt to take robust, near-term actions to increaase their resilience to climate change.

Portraits of Pre-Service Classroom Teachers: Exploring Intentions to Integrate Music through the Lens of the Theory of Planned Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harney, Kristin

2014-01-01

The primary purpose of this short-term study was to examine pre-service classroom teachers' intentions to integrate music in their future classrooms. Using the theory of planned behavior (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) as a framework, and embedded, multiple-case study design, I developed case studies of six pre-service classroom teachers enrolled in…

A Preliminary Research Plan for Development of a Photosynthetic Link in a Closed Ecological Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, P. W.

1979-01-01

The use of higher plants in a closed ecological life support system for long duration space missions involving large numbers of people is considered. The approach to planning and developing both the habitat for a long term space mission and closed ecological life support systems are discussed with emphasis on environmental compatibility and integrated systems design. The requirements of photosynthetic processes are summarized and evaluated in terms of their availability within a closed ecological life support environment. Specific references are recommended as a data base for future research on this topic.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

PubMed

Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-09-01

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing the primary care workforce: a study of nurse practitioner students' plans after graduation.

PubMed

Budd, Geraldine M; Wolf, Andrea; Haas, Richard Eric

2015-03-01

Primary care is a growing area, and nurse practitioners (NPs) hold promise for meeting the need for additional providers. This article reports on the future plans of more than 300 primary care NP students in family, adult, and adult gerontology programs. The sample was obtained through NP faculty, and data were collected via an online survey. Results indicated that although these students chose primary care, only 48% anticipated working in primary care; 26% planned to practice in rural areas, and 16% planned to work in an inner city. Reasons cited as important for pursuing a primary care position included the long-term patient relationship, faculty and preceptor mentors from the NP program, and clinical experiences as a student. Implications include providing more intensive faculty mentoring to increase the number of individuals seeking primary care positions after graduation and help with future career planning to meet personal career and nursing profession needs. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Coding of Stimuli by Animals: Retrospection, Prospection, Episodic Memory and Future Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zentall, Thomas R.

2010-01-01

When animals code stimuli for later retrieval they can either code them in terms of the stimulus presented (as a retrospective memory) or in terms of the response or outcome anticipated (as a prospective memory). Although retrospective memory is typically assumed (as in the form of a memory trace), evidence of prospective coding has been found…

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Psoriasis: the future.

PubMed

Menter, M Alan; Griffiths, Christopher E M

2015-01-01

The umbrella term psoriasis is now understood to incorporate several distinct phenotypes or endotypes along the disease spectrum that in turn will dictate different therapies. A stratified medicine approach to psoriasis using this clinical information coupled with pharmacogenomic and immunologic data will become more widely acceptable in the future. Comorbidities associated with psoriasis, such as diabetes, depression, and Crohn disease, and the debate about the interdependence of psoriasis and cardiovascular disease will also dictate future research and holistic and management plans for this complex disease.

The tough decisions that no one wants to make.

PubMed

Taylor, Joe; Jacobs, Michael

2003-01-01

This article examines prescription drug benefit plan trends: past, current, short-term future and long-term future. It includes a brief discussion of each cost trend and its drivers, then asks the question, "What can be done to protect the pharmacy benefit budget, yet provide what is needed?" from three perspectives: (1) business, (2) stakeholders (management, human resource groups, physicians, employees) and (3) patients (employees and dependents). The article discusses therapeutic guidelines, physician education, reimbursement issues, distribution channels and the impact of business decisions on employees, dependents, stockholders, shareholder value, management, human resources and decision makers' own careers.

Evaluations and Future Plans After Casual Sexual Experiences: Differences Across Partner Type.

PubMed

Wesche, Rose; Claxton, Shannon E; Lefkowitz, Eva S; van Dulmen, Manfred H M

2017-03-24

Casual sexual relationships and experiences (CSREs) are common among emerging adults, and their diversity may contribute to variability in their associations with mental health and future romantic relationship development. The present research used multiple regression analyses to examine how CSRE type (casual dating, friends with benefits [FWB], or booty call/one-night stand) is associated with short-term outcomes of these experiences, including positive and negative evaluations, plans to start a romantic relationship with a CSRE partner, and general plans for future CSREs. College students and non-college-attending emerging adults (N = 192, 80% female, mean age = 22.09 years) reported on recent sexual encounters through daily diaries collected around an alcohol consumption holiday. Individuals with casual dating partners evaluated their experiences more positively and/or less negatively than individuals with booty calls/one-night stands; these associations were moderated by gender and sexual behavior type. Individuals with casual dating partners were more oriented toward pursuing a romantic relationship with their partners than individuals with FWB or booty calls/one-night stands. However, no association was found between CSRE type and plans for future CSREs in general. Results highlight the diversity of CSREs and suggest that casual dating may be more rewarding than FWB and booty calls/one-night stands, particularly for women.

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology.

Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Introduction Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. Method This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. Results The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. Conclusion To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology. PMID:28566991

Strategic planning as a focus for continuous improvement. A case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, John W.; Gordon-Winkler, Lyn

1992-01-01

What do most of the successful people and organizations in our world have in common? Instead of worrying about the future, they work to create it. They have a plan, or a vision of what they want to accomplish and they focus their efforts on success. Strategic planning has been described as a disciplined, ongoing process to produce fundamental decisions and actions that shape what an organization is, what it does, and how it will respond to a changing environment. This case study discussion will evaluate the relationship between strategic planning and Total Quality Management (TQM), or continuous improvement, through the experience of the NASA Johnson Space Center in developing a strategy for the future. That experience clearly illustrates the value of strategic planning in setting the framework and establishing the overall thrust of continuous improvement initiatives. Equally significant, the fundamentals of a quality culture such as strong customer and supplier partnerships, participative involvement, open communications, and ownership were essential in overcoming the challenges inherent in the planning process. A reinforced management commitment to the quality culture was a clear, long-term benefit.

Strategic planning as a focus for continuous improvement. A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oneill, John W.; Gordon-Winkler, Lyn

What do most of the successful people and organizations in our world have in common? Instead of worrying about the future, they work to create it. They have a plan, or a vision of what they want to accomplish and they focus their efforts on success. Strategic planning has been described as a disciplined, ongoing process to produce fundamental decisions and actions that shape what an organization is, what it does, and how it will respond to a changing environment. This case study discussion will evaluate the relationship between strategic planning and Total Quality Management (TQM), or continuous improvement, through the experience of the NASA Johnson Space Center in developing a strategy for the future. That experience clearly illustrates the value of strategic planning in setting the framework and establishing the overall thrust of continuous improvement initiatives. Equally significant, the fundamentals of a quality culture such as strong customer and supplier partnerships, participative involvement, open communications, and ownership were essential in overcoming the challenges inherent in the planning process. A reinforced management commitment to the quality culture was a clear, long-term benefit.

The Future of Electricity Resource Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kahrl, Fredrich; Mills, Andrew; Lavin, Luke

Electricity resource planning is the process of identifying longer-term investments to meet electricity reliability requirements and public policy goals at a reasonable cost. Resource planning processes provide a forum for regulators, electric utilities, and electricity industry stakeholders to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social benefits and costs of different investment options. By facilitating a discussion on future goals, challenges and strategies, resource planning processes often play an important role in shaping utility business decisions. Resource planning emerged more than three decades ago in an era of transition, where declining electricity demand and rising costs spurred fundamental changes in electricity industrymore » regulation and structure. Despite significant changes in the industry, resource planning continues to play an important role in supporting investment decision making. Over the next two decades, the electricity industry will again undergo a period of transition, driven by technological change, shifting customer preferences and public policy goals. This transition will bring about a gradual paradigm shift in resource planning, requiring changes in scope, approaches and methods. Even as it changes, resource planning will continue to be a central feature of the electricity industry. Its functions — ensuring the reliability of high voltage (“bulk”) power systems, enabling oversight of regulated utilities and facilitating low-cost compliance with public policy goals — are likely to grow in importance as the electricity industry enters a new period of technological, economic and regulatory change. This report examines the future of electricity resource planning in the context of a changing electricity industry. The report examines emerging issues and evolving practices in five key areas that will shape the future of resource planning: (1) central-scale generation, (2) distributed generation, (3) demand-side resources, (4) transmission and (5) uncertainty and risk management. The analysis draws on a review of recent resource plans for 10 utilities that reflect some of the U.S. electricity industry’s extensive diversity.« less

Operational planning using Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Alison; Kirtman, Benjamin; Harrison, Scott; Gorman, Joe

2016-05-01

The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that can produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics is designing the Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles, such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We evaluated thirty years of forecasts using machine learning to select predictions for an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process.

Minimum Equipment Lists, Flight Rules and ... Past, Present and Future of Safety Pre-Determined Decisions for Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herd, A.; Wolff, M.

2012-01-01

Extended mission operations, such as human spaceflight to Mars provide an opportunity for take current human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit, such as the operations undertaken on the International Space Station (ISS). This opportunity also presents a challenge in terms of extending what we currently understand as "remote operations" performed on ISS, offering learning beyond that gained from the successful moon- lander expeditions. As such there is a need to assess how the existing operations concept of ground support teams directing (and supporting) on-orbit ISS operations can be applied in the extended mission concept. The current mission support concept involves three interacting operations products - a short term plan, crew procedures and flight rules. Flight rules (for ISS operations) currently provide overall planning, engineering and operations constraints (including those derived from a safety perspective) in the form of a rule book. This paper will focus specifically on flight rules, and describe the current use of them, and assess the future role of flight rules to support exploration, including the deployment of decision support tools (DSTs) to ensure flight rule compliancy for missions with minimal ground support. Taking consideration of the historical development of pre-planned decisions, and their manifestation within the operations environment, combined with the extended remoteness of human exploration missions, we will propose a future development of this product and a platform on which it could be presented.

Transportation planning, policy and climate change : making the long-term connection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

Climate change and variability will have significant impacts on the future mobility of the population in this : country. Previous research has found that the transportation sector is not considering adaptation as a : solution to these potential impac...

IMPROVING THE SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

PETERS, JON S.; SCHNEIDER, RAYMOND C.

GUIDELINES FOR CREATING IMPROVED EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTS ARE PRESENTED WITH SUPPLEMENTARY DRAWINGS, DIAGRAMS, AND PHOTOGRAPHS. POLICY DECISIONS ARE RELATED TO--(1) THE SCHOOL'S RESPONSIBILITY TO THE FUTURE, (2) INDUSTRY'S RULE IN EDUCATION, AND (3) BUILDING PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IS DISCUSSED IN TERMS OF--(1) ART…

Future-proofing nursing education.

PubMed

Keighley, Tom

2014-12-01

The origin of future-proofing seems lost in the mists of recent history. Dictionaries date its use from about 1991, referring to the prevention of obsolescence in information technology manufacturing and occasionally in organizational systems. However, closer analysis in healthcare demonstrates it can be traced back to the Rand Corporation and the studies commissioned there in the 1960s. These aimed at identifying the predictive factors in planning healthcare, including development of the workforce. It is a managerial concept that helps to project a vision of change that is not simply reactive or short-term. It permits a focus on leadership and the maximising of learning opportunities and includes analysis of the policy horizon. It held within it an assumption about the importance of establishing the cognitive frameworks that would influence long-term behaviours and not focus simply on short-term gains. This paper utilises this approach to explore options for future-proofing of nurse education.

Realistic Goals and Processes for Future Space Astronomy Portfolio Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, Jon

2015-08-01

It is generally recognized that international participation and coordination is highly valuable for maximizing the scientific impact of modern space science facilities, as well as for cost-sharing reasons. Indeed, all large space science missions, and most medium and small missions, are international, even if one country or space agency has a clear leadership role and bears most of the development costs. International coordination is a necessary aspect of future mission planning, but how that coordination is done remains debatable. I propose that the community's scientific vision is generally homogeneous enough to permit international coordination of decadal-scale strategic science goals. However, the timing and budget allocation/funding mechanisms of individual countries and/or space agencies are too disparate for effective long-term strategic portfolio planning via a single international process. Rather, I argue that coordinated space mission portfolio planning is a natural consequence of international collaboration on individual strategic missions. I review the process and outcomes of the U.S. 2010 decadal survey in astronomy & astrophysics from the perspective of a government official who helped craft the survey charter and transmitted guidance to the scientific community on behalf of a sponsoring agency (NASA), while continuing to manage the current portfolio that involved ongoing negotiations with other space agencies. I analyze the difficulties associated with projecting long-term budgets, obtaining realistic mission costs (including the additional cost burdens of international partnerships), and developing new (possibly transformational) technologies. Finally, I remark on the future role that privately funded space science missions can have in accomplishing international science community goals.

Intercoder Reliability of Mapping Between Pharmaceutical Dose Forms in the German Medication Plan and EDQM Standard Terms.

PubMed

Sass, Julian; Becker, Kim; Ludmann, Dominik; Pantazoglou, Elisabeth; Dewenter, Heike; Thun, Sylvia

2018-01-01

A nationally uniform medication plan has recently been part of German legislation. The specification for the German medication plan was developed in cooperation between various stakeholders of the healthcare system. Its' goal is to enhance usability and interoperability while also providing patients and physicians with the necessary information they require for a safe and high-quality therapy. Within the research and development project named Medication Plan PLUS, the specification of the medication plan was tested and reviewed for semantic interoperability in particular. In this study, the list of pharmaceutical dose forms provided in the specification was mapped to the standard terms of the European Directorate for the Quality of Medicines & HealthCare by different coders. The level of agreement between coders was calculated using Cohen's Kappa (κ). Results show that less than half of the dose forms could be coded with EDQM standard terms. In addition to that Kappa was found to be moderate, which means rather unconvincing agreement among coders. In conclusion, there is still vast room for improvement in utilization of standardized international vocabulary and unused potential considering cross-border eHealth implementations in the future.

Considerations to Enhance the Florida Domestic Security Strategic Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

In his book, Implementing your Strategic Plan How to Turn “Intent” Into Effective Action for Sustainable Change, C. Davis Fogg suggests that...companies that are long-term, strategic winners faithfully practice 18 keys to strategy implementation (1999). Fogg states to begin, a company must have a...this small group of strategic priority issues will lead one toward an envisioned future ( Fogg , 1999, p. 6). Fogg suggests that it is important

Planning, Development, and Change in Bristol Bay: A High School Curriculum. Teacher Guide and Student Text. Unit III: 1991 and Beyond. Unit IV: International Perspective. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lipka, Jerry; Willer, Cristy

Written with the broad goal of involving high school students in Bristol Bay, Alaska, in the planning and design of their region's future, this combined teacher guide and student text contains the third and fourth units of a seven-unit curriculum. Unit III covers the terms of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act and the complicated issues…

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Pegasus hypersonic flight research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Robert E.; Meyer, Robert R., Jr.; Budd, Gerald D.

1992-01-01

Hypersonic aeronautics research using the Pegasus air-launched space booster is described. Two areas are discussed in the paper: previously obtained results from Pegasus flights 1 and 2, and plans for future programs. Proposed future research includes boundary-layer transition studies on the airplane-like first stage and also use of the complete Pegasus launch system to boost a research vehicle to hypersonic speeds. Pegasus flight 1 and 2 measurements were used to evaluate the results of several analytical aerodynamic design tools applied during the development of the vehicle as well as to develop hypersonic flight-test techniques. These data indicated that the aerodynamic design approach for Pegasus was adequate and showed that acceptable margins were available. Additionally, the correlations provide insight into the capabilities of these analytical tools for more complex vehicles in which design margins may be more stringent. Near-term plans to conduct hypersonic boundary-layer transition studies are discussed. These plans involve the use of a smooth metallic glove at about the mid-span of the wing. Longer-term opportunities are proposed which identify advantages of the Pegasus launch system to boost large-scale research vehicles to the real-gas hypersonic flight regime.

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

2008-09-01

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

Future Marine Polar Research Capacities - Science Planning and Research Services for a Multi-National Research Icebreaker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biebow, N.; Lembke-Jene, L.; Wolff-Boenisch, B.; Bergamasco, A.; De Santis, L.; Eldholm, O.; Mevel, C.; Willmott, V.; Thiede, J.

2011-12-01

Despite significant advances in Arctic and Antarctic marine science over the past years, the polar Southern Ocean remains a formidable frontier due to challenging technical and operational requirements. Thus, key data and observations from this important region are still missing or lack adequate lateral and temporal coverage, especially from time slots outside optimal weather seasons and ice conditions. These barriers combined with the obligation to efficiently use financial resources and funding for expeditions call for new approaches to create optimally equipped, but cost-effective infrastructures. These must serve the international science community in a dedicated long-term mode and enable participation in multi-disciplinary expeditions, with secured access to optimally equipped marine platforms for world-class research in a wide range of Antarctic science topics. The high operational and technical performance capacity of a future joint European Research Icebreaker and Deep-sea Drilling Vessel (the AURORA BOREALIS concept) aims at integrating still separately operating national science programmes with different strategic priorities into joint development of long-term research missions with international cooperation both in Arctic and Antarctica. The icebreaker is planned to enable, as a worldwide first, autonomous year-round operations in the central Arctic and polar Southern Ocean, including severest ice conditions in winter, and serving all polar marine disciplines. It will facilitate the implementation of atmospheric, oceanographic, cryospheric or geophysical observatories for long-term monitoring of the polar environment. Access to the biosphere and hydrosphere e.g. beneath ice shelves or in remote regions is made possible by acting as advanced deployment platform for instruments, robotic and autonomous vehicles and ship-based air operations. In addition to a report on the long-term strategic science and operational planning objectives, we describe foreseen on- and offshore science support infrastructure, recommended operational and scientific support structures and the relevance of AURORA BOREALIS for other present and future Antarctic science programmes and initiatives.

A Technology Plan for Enabling Commercial Space Business

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyles, Garry M.

1997-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program is a customer driven, focused technology program that supports the NASA Strategic Plan and considers future commercial space business projections. The initial cycle of the Advanced Space Transportation Program implementation planning was conducted from December 1995 through February 1996 and represented increased NASA emphasis on broad base technology development with the goal of dramatic reductions in the cost of space transportation. The second planning cycle, conducted in January and February 1997, updated the program implementation plan based on changes in the external environment, increased maturity of advanced concept studies, and current technology assessments. The program has taken a business-like approach to technology development with a balanced portfolio of near, medium, and long-term strategic targets. Strategic targets are influenced by Earth science, space science, and exploration objectives as well as commercial space markets. Commercial space markets include those that would be enhanced by lower cost transportation as well as potential markets resulting in major increases in space business induced by reductions in transportation cost. The program plan addresses earth-to-orbit space launch, earth orbit operations and deep space systems. It also addresses all critical transportation system elements; including structures, thermal protection systems, propulsion, avionics, and operations. As these technologies are matured, integrated technology flight experiments such as the X-33 and X-34 flight demonstrator programs support near-term (one to five years) development or operational decisions. The Advanced Space Transportation Program and the flight demonstrator programs combine business planning, ground-based technology demonstrations and flight demonstrations that will permit industry and NASA to commit to revolutionary new space transportation systems beginning at the turn of the century and continuing far into the future.

Future Visions for Scientific Human Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garvin, James

2002-01-01

Human exploration has always played a vital role within NASA, in spite of current perceptions that today it is adrift as a consequence of the resource challenges associated with construction and operation of the International Space Station (ISS). On the basis of the significance of human spaceflight within NASA's overall mission, periodic evaluation of its strategic position has been conducted by various groups, most recently exemplified by the recent Human Exploration and Development of Space Enterprise Strategic Plan. While such reports paint one potential future pathway, they are necessarily constrained by the ground rules and assumptions under which they are developed. An alternate approach, involving a small team of individuals selected as "brainstormers," has been ongoing within NASA for the past two years in an effort to capture a vision of a long-term future for human spaceflight not limited by nearer-term "point design" solutions. This paper describes the guiding principles and concepts developed by this team. It is not intended to represent an implementation plan, but rather one perspective on what could result as human beings extend their range of experience in spaceflight beyond today's beach-head of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO).

[What type of delivery for twins?].

PubMed

Vendittelli, F; Accoceberry, M; Savary, D; Laurichesse-Delmas, H; Gallot, D; Jacquetin, B; Lémery, D

2009-12-01

To determine if perinatal and neonatal morbidity and mortality is improved by a planned caesarean section for twins before and at term. A systematic search was conducted in Medline between May 2001 and December 2008. Randomised controlled studies and meta-analysis were researched at first. There is no evidence to support a policy of planned caesarean section or vaginal delivery for twins before term or at term whatever the presentation of the first twin. There is also no evidence to support a policy of caesarean section or vaginal delivery for a patient with a history of prior caesarean section. Vaginal delivery must be made in the presence of an obstetrician, an anaesthesiologist, and a paediatrician in a level maternity adapted to the risks of the future newborn. Otherwise, there is no evidence to support a policy of planned caesarean delivery for twins but the type of delivery has to be decided with the informed patient. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Architectural Barriers to the Physically Disabled.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirkland, Sue-Anne

Presented is evidence on the increasing need to plan for the accommodation of the physically handicapped in the design and construction of present and future public buildings and transportation facilities in Canada. Terms such as "architectural barriers" and "disability" are defined. Statistics on disability incidence in Canada…

Environmental Monitoring as Part of Life Support for the Crew Habitat for Lunar and Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.

2010-01-01

Like other crewed space missions, future missions to the moon and Mars will have requirements for monitoring the chemical and microbial status of the crew habitat. Monitoring the crew habitat becomes more critical in such long term missions. This paper will describe the state of technology development for environmental monitoring of lunar lander and lunar outpost missions, and the state of plans for future missions.

Labor force planning issues for allied health in Australia.

PubMed

Smith, C S; Crowley, S

1995-01-01

The aim of this paper is to discuss labor force planning issues for allied health professionals in Australia. Health system reform and changes in the demand for health labor, combined with key characteristics of the professions, will have a profound influence on future needs for career development of allied health professionals. Key issues include the increasing need for allied health professionals to undertake business management and public health training, the growing trend of multiskilling versus specialization, and the need for the professions to diversify their skill base to ensure a range of career options in a changing health care system. The challenge for allied health professions is to improve tools of analysis in relation to labor force planning and to systematically investigate various factors influencing labor force supply and demand, on both a short-term and long-term basis.

Nursing home manager's knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about advance care planning for people with dementia in long-term care settings: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Beck, Esther-Ruth; McIlfatrick, Sonja; Hasson, Felicity; Leavey, Gerry

2017-09-01

To examine nursing home managers' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and current practice regarding advance care planning for people with dementia in long-term care settings informed by the theory of planned behaviour. Internationally, advance care planning is advocated for people with dementia. However, evidence suggests that discussions with people with dementia are rare, particularly in long-term care settings. Whilst nursing home managers can be considered central to implementation in this setting, there is a dearth of research that has examined their perspective. This study reports on their role with regard to advance care planning and the perceived factors which influence this. A cross-sectional postal survey was carried out as part of a larger scale sequential explanatory mixed-methods study between January-March 2015. Nursing home managers in a region in the UK (n = 178). A response rate of 66% (n = 116) was achieved. Nursing home managers demonstrated a lack of knowledge of advance care planning, with negative attitudes underpinned by concerns regarding the capacity and lack of perceived benefits to the person with dementia. Currently, they do not view advance care planning as part of their role, with lack of ownership impacting upon current practice behaviours. Whilst nursing home managers recognise the potential benefits of advance care planning, barriers and challenges create a reluctance to facilitate. Targeted training to address the knowledge deficit is required, with the wider components of advance care planning promoted. There is a need for greater role clarification to ensure nurses in long-term care settings identify with the process in the future. A gap between rhetoric and reality of implementation is evident; therefore, long-term care settings must critically examine system, organisational and individual factors for failure to implement advance care planning for people with dementia. Increased cognisance of the context in which advance care planning takes place is vital for improved implementation in this context. In addition strong nursing leadership is imperative to facilitate initiation, engagement and re-evaluation of the process of advance care planning. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Partnerships for Policy Development: A Case Study From Uganda’s Costed Implementation Plan for Family Planning

PubMed Central

Lipsky, Alyson B; Gribble, James N; Cahaelen, Linda; Sharma, Suneeta

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT In global health, partnerships between practitioners and policy makers facilitate stakeholders in jointly addressing those issues that require multiple perspectives for developing, implementing, and evaluating plans, strategies, and programs. For family planning, costed implementation plans (CIPs) are developed through a strategic government-led consultative process that results in a detailed plan for program activities and an estimate of the funding required to achieve an established set of goals. Since 2009, many countries have developed CIPs. Conventionally, the CIP approach has not been defined with partnerships as a focal point; nevertheless, cooperation between key stakeholders is vital to CIP development and execution. Uganda launched a CIP in November 2014, thus providing an opportunity to examine the process through a partnership lens. This article describes Uganda’s CIP development process in detail, grounded in a framework for assessing partnerships, and provides the findings from 22 key informant interviews. Findings reveal strengths in Uganda’s CIP development process, such as willingness to adapt and strong senior management support. However, the evaluation also highlighted challenges, including district health officers (DHOs), who are a key group of implementers, feeling excluded from the development process. There was also a lack of planning around long-term partnership practices that could help address anticipated execution challenges. The authors recommend that future CIP development efforts use a long-term partnership strategy that fosters accountability by encompassing both the short-term goal of developing the CIP and the longer-term goal of achieving the CIP objectives. Although this study focused on Uganda’s CIP for family planning, its lessons have implications for any policy or strategy development efforts that require multiple stakeholders to ensure successful execution. PMID:27353621

A decision support tool for synchronizing technology advances with strategic mission objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornstein, Rhoda S.; Willoughby, John K.

1992-01-01

Successful accomplishment of the objectives of many long-range future missions in areas such as space systems, land-use planning, and natural resource management requires significant technology developments. This paper describes the development of a decision-support data-derived tool called MisTec for helping strategic planners to determine technology development alternatives and to synchronize the technology development schedules with the performance schedules of future long-term missions. Special attention is given to the operations, concept, design, and functional capabilities of the MisTec. The MisTec was initially designed for manned Mars mission, but can be adapted to support other high-technology long-range strategic planning situations, making it possible for a mission analyst, planner, or manager to describe a mission scenario, determine the technology alternatives for making the mission achievable, and to plan the R&D activity necessary to achieve the required technology advances.

Not planning a sustainable transport system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finnveden, Göran, E-mail: goran.finnveden@abe.kth.se; Åkerman, Jonas

2014-04-01

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and business throughout the country. More specifically, the transport sector shall, among other things, contribute to the achievement of environmental quality objectives in which the development of the transport system plays an important role in the achievement of the objectives. The aim of this study is to analyse if current transport planning supports this policy. This is done by analysing two recent cases: the National Infrastructure Plan 2010–2021, and the planning of Bypass Stockholm, a major road investment.more » Our results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. Another interesting aspect of the planning processes is that the long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes, neither as a clear goal nor as factor that will influence future transport systems. In this way, the long-term sustainability aspects are not present in the planning. We conclude that the two cases do not contribute to a sustainable transport system. Thus, several changes must be made in the processes, including putting up clear targets for emissions. Also, the methodology for the environmental assessments needs to be further developed and discussed. - Highlights: • Two cases are studied to analyse if current planning supports a sustainable transport system. • Results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. • Long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes. • Current practices do not contribute to a sustainable planning processes. • Methodology and process for environmental assessments must be further developed and discussed.« less

Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin

2011-01-01

The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

The Obama plan: more regulation, unsustainable spending.

PubMed

Antos, Joseph; Wilensky, Gail; Kuttner, Hanns

2008-01-01

The health reform plan put forth by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) focuses on expanding insurance coverage and provides new subsidies to individuals, small businesses, and businesses experiencing catastrophic expenses. It greatly increases the federal regulation of private insurance but does not address the core economic incentives that drive health care spending. This omission along with the very substantial short-term savings claimed raise serious questions about its fiscal sustainability. Heavy regulation coupled with a fallback National Health Plan and a play-or-pay financing choice also raise questions about the future of the employer insurance market.

"I Am the Only Child of my Parents:" Perspectives on Future Elder Care for Parents among Chinese only-Children Living overseas.

PubMed

Gui, Tianhan; Koropeckyj-Cox, Tanya

2016-09-01

The 1979 One-Child Policy in China created a generation of only children, leading to increased elder care dilemmas for this generation and its aging parents, particularly for young adults studying or working abroad. The current study used in-depth, semi-structured interviews with Chinese young adults who were currently studying or working in Montreal, Canada (N = 20), whose parents still lived in China. The interviews focused on the following topics: elder care patterns of respondents' grandparents; family values and expectations; perceptions of professional long-term care institutions (in China and Canada); and future plans for taking care of aging parents. Respondents described their grandparents' care as following traditional elder care patterns with multiple familial caregivers, which they appreciated as a positive model that defined their own obligations towards parents. Respondents reported being very close to their parents. Some planned to settle down in Canada and bring their parents, others planned to go back to China. Citing the tradition of filial piety, they expected to take care of their parents in the future, but they also considered the dilemmas involved in caring for aging parents without siblings to share the task, potentially requiring them to find compromises between their personal lives and caring for older parents. Those who planned to settle in Canada raised additional concerns about the challenges of bringing over their parents, including acculturation and access to and communication with health and long-term care providers. The results are discussed in the context of contemporary demographic, economic, and policy concerns about aging, family care, and immigration.

The strategic skills of business continuity managers: putting business continuity management into corporate long-term planning.

PubMed

Wong, Wei Ning Zechariah

2009-11-01

Despite its rapid development in the last two decades, business continuity management (BCM) as a discipline and a profession is still regarded by many as an operational entity of management. Two main issues are discussed in this paper: the role of BCM in strategic management and the strategic skills of business continuity managers. These issues are crucial as they represent the role of BCM in high-level corporate management. The paper discusses the importance of BCM in the long-term planning of organisational success and the preservation of future competitiveness. Finally, salient points that underpin the importance of its role in sustaining organisational performance are addressed.

Temple University Libraries in the Mid-Seventies: A Status Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nitecki, Joseph Z.

Present central library operations are discussed in terms of emerging needs and possible direction for future development. Library objectives include acquiring and organizing relevant records of knowledge, and providing satisfactory information service standards. Issues relating to objectives include the library's involvement in planning and…

Interdisciplinary science for future governance and management of forests.

PubMed

Nordin, Annika; Sandström, Camilla

2016-02-01

The sustainable use of forests constitutes one of the great challenges for the future due to forests' large spatial coverage, long-term planning horizons and inclusion of many ecosystem services. The mission of the Future Forests programme is to provide a scientifically robust knowledge base for sustainable governance and management of forests preparing for a future characterized by globalization and climate change. In this introduction to the Special Issue, we describe the interdisciplinary science approach developed in close collaboration with actors in the Future Forests programme, and discuss the potential impacts of this science on society. In addition, we introduce the 13 scientific articles and present results produced by the programme.

Scripts and information units in future planning: Interactions between a past and a future planning task.

PubMed

Cordonnier, Aline; Barnier, Amanda J; Sutton, John

2016-01-01

Research on future thinking has emphasized how episodic details from memories are combined to create future thoughts, but has not yet examined the role of semantic scripts. In this study, participants recalled how they planned a past camping trip in Australia (past planning task) and imagined how they would plan a future camping trip (future planning task), set either in a familiar (Australia) or an unfamiliar (Antarctica) context. Transcripts were segmented into information units that were coded according to semantic category (e.g., where, when, transport, material, actions). Results revealed a strong interaction between tasks and their presentation order. Starting with the past planning task constrained the future planning task when the context was familiar. Participants generated no new information when the future camping trip was set in Australia and completed second (after the past planning task). Conversely, starting with the future planning task facilitated the past planning task. Participants recalled more information units of their past plan when the past planning task was completed second (after the future planning task). These results shed new light on the role of scripts in past and future thinking and on how past and future thinking processes interact.

Strategic planning in healthcare organizations.

PubMed

Rodríguez Perera, Francisco de Paula; Peiró, Manel

2012-08-01

Strategic planning is a completely valid and useful tool for guiding all types of organizations, including healthcare organizations. The organizational level at which the strategic planning process is relevant depends on the unit's size, its complexity, and the differentiation of the service provided. A cardiology department, a hemodynamic unit, or an electrophysiology unit can be an appropriate level, as long as their plans align with other plans at higher levels. The leader of each unit is the person responsible for promoting the planning process, a core and essential part of his or her role. The process of strategic planning is programmable, systematic, rational, and holistic and integrates the short, medium, and long term, allowing the healthcare organization to focus on relevant and lasting transformations for the future. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Assessing Flood Risks and Planning for Resiliency in New Jersey: A Case Study on the Use of Online Flood Mapping and Resilience Planning Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auermuller, L. M.; Gatto, J.; Huch, C.

2015-12-01

The highly developed nature of New Jersey's coastline, barrier island and lagoon communities make them particularly vulnerable to storm surge, sea level rise and flooding. The impacts of Hurricane Sandy have enlightened coastal communities to these realities. Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the Jacques Cousteau National Research Reserve (JC NERR), Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers Bloustein School and the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) have developed web-based tools to assist NJ's coastal communities in visualizing and planning for future local impacts. NJFloodMapper and NJAdapt are two complementary interactive mapping websites that visualize different current and future flood hazards. These hazard layers can be combined with additional data including critical facilities, evacuation routes, socioeconomic and environmental data. Getting to Resilience is an online self-assessment tool developed to assist communities reduce vulnerability and increase preparedness by linking planning, mitigation, and adaptation. Through this interactive process communities will learn how their preparedness can yield valuable points through voluntary programs like FEMA's Community Rating System and Sustainable Jersey. The assessment process can also increase the community's understanding of where future vulnerabilities should be addressed through hazard mitigation planning. Since Superstorm Sandy, more than thirty communities in New Jersey have been provided technical assistance in assessing their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards, and have begun to understand how to better plan and prepare for short and long-term changes along their shorelines.

Mission to Planet Earth. Strategic enterprise plan, 1995-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-05-01

Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) provides long-term understanding of the earth system needed to protect and improve our environment, now and for future generations. This MTPE Strategic Enterprise Plan states how NASA intends to meet its responsibility to the Nation for developing a long-term, integrated program of environmental observation in support of informed decision-making. This plan implements the NASA Strategic Plan for the MTPE Enterprise; it is the first version of a rolling 5-year plan that will be updated annually. It is consistent with the interagency program developed by the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council and implemented in large part through the U.S. Global Change Research Program. This report consists of the following sections: (1) introduction; (2) scientific foundation; (3) mission (destination and purposes); (4) principle of operation (ethical and quality assurance standards); (5) customer base (to ensure that the right products and services are delivered); (6) internal and external assessments; (7) assumptions; (8) goals, objectives, and strategies; (9) linkages to other strategic enterprises; and (10) summary.

Mission to Planet Earth. Strategic enterprise plan, 1995-2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) provides long-term understanding of the earth system needed to protect and improve our environment, now and for future generations. This MTPE Strategic Enterprise Plan states how NASA intends to meet its responsibility to the Nation for developing a long-term, integrated program of environmental observation in support of informed decision-making. This plan implements the NASA Strategic Plan for the MTPE Enterprise; it is the first version of a rolling 5-year plan that will be updated annually. It is consistent with the interagency program developed by the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council and implemented in large part through the U.S. Global Change Research Program. This report consists of the following sections: (1) introduction; (2) scientific foundation; (3) mission (destination and purposes); (4) principle of operation (ethical and quality assurance standards); (5) customer base (to ensure that the right products and services are delivered); (6) internal and external assessments; (7) assumptions; (8) goals, objectives, and strategies; (9) linkages to other strategic enterprises; and (10) summary.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

Grand Forks - East Grand Forks Urban Water Resources Study. East Grand Forks Flood Fight Manual.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-01

wastewater management, and flood control) were identified, and a "plan of study" was developed. The plan of study outlined the general approach t~i -tiTd...three parts. Part 1 contains a general description and narrative on the need of the unit, Part 2 identifies the Unit Chief, Deputies, and Unit members...other units are discussed only in general terms. Future revisions will hopefully result in a happy medium between detailed specifics and generalities

Measures of Effectiveness-CONUS Reorganization 1973 (As Pertains to FORSCOM, TRADOC, HSC, OTEA and CAA). Volume 2. Detailed Evaluation Plan and Appendixes A to E

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-11-01

management, organization, and operation of activities designed to achieve the mission/function covered by the measure. An important use of the...presents an evaluation plan designed to assist the Army in the overall assessment of its effectiveness in terms of the goals of the CONUS...ongoing operations plus encourage the design and imple- mentation of any needed changes in the future without excessive delav and turbulence

Monitoring and predicting shrink potential and future processing quality of potato tubers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term storage of potato tubers increases risks, which are often attributed to shrink and quality loss. To minimize shrink and ensure high quality tubers, producers must closely monitor the condition of the crop during storage and make necessary adjustments to management plans. Evaluation procedu...

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Future population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki.

PubMed

Yokota, Kenichi; Mine, Mariko; Shibata, Yoshisada

2013-01-01

The Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Survivor Database, which was established in 1978 for elucidating the long-term health effects of the atomic bombing, has registered since 1970 about 120,000 atomic bomb survivors with a history of residence in Nagasaki city. Since the number of atomic bomb survivors has steadily been decreasing, prediction of future population is important for planning future epidemiologic studies, and we tried to predict the population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki city from 2008 to 2030. In addition, we evaluated our estimated population comparing with the actual number from 2008 to 2011.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

2016-09-01

To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Strategic Implications of Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Bret G.

2011-01-01

The current United States Space Policy [1] as articulated by the White House and later confirmed by the Congress [2] calls for [t]he extension of the human presence from low-Earth orbit to other regions of space beyond low-Earth orbit will enable missions to the surface of the Moon and missions to deep space destinations such as near-Earth asteroids and Mars. Human exploration of the Moon and Mars has been the focus of numerous exhaustive studies and planning, but missions to Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) has, by comparison, garnered relatively little attention in terms of mission and systems planning. This paper examines the strategic implications of human exploration of NEAs and how they can fit into the overall exploration strategy. This paper specifically addresses how accessible NEAs are in terms of mission duration, technologies required, and overall architecture construct. Example mission architectures utilizing different propulsion technologies such as chemical, nuclear thermal, and solar electric propulsion were formulated to determine resulting figures of merit including number of NEAs accessible, time of flight, mission mass, number of departure windows, and length of the launch windows. These data, in conjunction with what we currently know about these potential exploration targets (or need to know in the future), provide key insights necessary for future mission and strategic planning.

When should we save the most endangered species?

PubMed

Wilson, Howard B; Joseph, Liana N; Moore, Alana L; Possingham, Hugh P

2011-09-01

At the heart of our efforts to protect threatened species, there is a controversial debate about whether to give priority to cost-effective actions or whether focusing solely on the most endangered species will ultimately lead to preservation of the greatest number of species. By framing this debate within a decision-analytic framework, we show that allocating resources solely to the most endangered species will typically not minimise the number of extinctions in the long-term, as this does not account for the risk of less endangered species going extinct in the future. It is only favoured when our planning timeframe is short or we have a long-term view and we are optimistic about future conditions. Conservation funding tends to be short-term in nature, which biases allocations to more endangered species. Our work highlights the need to consider resource allocation for biodiversity over the long-term; 'preventive conservation', rather than just short-term fire-fighting. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Water Resilience by Design: A water infrastructure planning framework for developing sustainable water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Ray, P. A.; Freeman, S.

2016-12-01

Societal need for improved water management and concerns for the long-term sustainability of water resources systems are prominent around the world. The continued susceptibility of society to the harmful effects of hydrologic variability, pervasive concerns related to climate change and the emergent awareness of devastating effects of current practice on aquatic ecosystems all illustrate our limited understanding of how water ought to be managed in a dynamic world. To address these challenges, new problem solving approaches are required that acknowledge uncertainties, incorporate best available information, and link engineering design principles, typically based on determinism, with our best geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. In this presentation, we present and demonstrate a framework for developing water planning and management strategies that are resilient in the face of future uncertainties and our limited ability to anticipate the future. The approach begins with stakeholder engagement and decision framing to elicit relevant context, uncertainties, choices and connections that drive planning and serve as an entry point to exploring possible futures. The result is the development of water strategies that are informed by the best available predictive information and designed to perform well over a future of change. Examples from around the world are presented to illustrate the methodology.

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

Viewgraph description of Penn State's Propulsion Engineering Research Center: Activity highlights and future plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merkle, Charles L.

1991-01-01

Viewgraphs are presented that describe the progress and status of Penn State's Propulsion Engineering Research Center. The Center was established in Jul. 1988 by a grant from NASA's University Space Engineering Research Centers Program. After two and one-half years of operation, some 16 faculty are participating, and the Center is supporting 39 graduate students plus 18 undergraduates. In reviewing the Center's status, long-term plans and goals are reviewed and then the present status of the Center and the highlights and accomplishments of the past year are summarized. An overview of plans for the upcoming year are presented.

Advanced long term cryogenic storage systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Norman S.

1987-01-01

Long term, cryogenic fluid storage facilities will be required to support future space programs such as the space-based Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), Telescopes, and Laser Systems. An orbital liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen storage system with an initial capacity of approximately 200,000 lb will be required. The storage facility tank design must have the capability of fluid acquisition in microgravity and limit cryogen boiloff due to environmental heating. Cryogenic boiloff management features, minimizing Earth-to-orbit transportation costs, will include advanced thick multilayer insulation/integrated vapor cooled shield concepts, low conductance support structures, and refrigeration/reliquefaction systems. Contracted study efforts are under way to develop storage system designs, technology plans, test article hardware designs, and develop plans for ground/flight testing.

Evaluation of the Dawson College Shooting Psychological Intervention: Moving Toward a Multimodal Extensive Plan

PubMed Central

Séguin, Monique; Chawky, Nadia; Lesage, Alain; Boyer, Richard; Guay, Stéphane; Bleau, Pierre; Miquelon, Paule; Szkrumelak, Nadia; Steiner, Warren; Roy, Denise

2013-01-01

In 2006, following the shooting at Dawson College, the authorities implemented an intervention plan. This provided an opportunity to analyze the responses to services offered, and afforded a learning opportunity, which led to the proposal of an extensive multimodal short- and long-term psychological plan for future needs. Both quantitative and qualitative data were gathered 18 months after the event, involving the participation of 948 students and staff. Mental health problems and the perception of services offered after the shooting were investigated, using standardized measures. Second, focus groups and individual interviews were conducted among a subgroup of participants (support team members; teachers and employees; students and parents) and permitted to gather data on services received and services required. Individual report of events, the extent of psychological impact and services offered and received were analyzed in terms of the following dimensions: intervention philosophy, training, ongoing offer of services and finally, detection and outreach. A significant incidence of disorders and a high rate of exacerbation of preexisting mental disorders were observed within the 18 months following the shooting. Postimmediate and short-term intervention appeared adequate, but the long-term collective vision toward community support and availability of mental health services were lacking. Lessons learned from this evaluation and other school shootings suggest that preparedness and long-term community responses are often overlooked. A multimodal extensive plan is proposed based on a theoretical model from which interventions strategies could be drawn. PMID:24795790

Identification of high-level functional/system requirements for future civil transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swink, Jay R.; Goins, Richard T.

1992-01-01

In order to accommodate the rapid growth in commercial aviation throughout the remainder of this century, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is faced with a formidable challenge to upgrade and/or modernize the National Airspace System (NAS) without compromising safety or efficiency. A recurring theme in both the Aviation System Capital Investment Plan (CIP), which has replaced the NAS Plan, and the new FAA Plan for Research, Engineering, and Development (RE&D) rely on the application of new technologies and a greater use of automation. Identifying the high-level functional and system impacts of such modernization efforts on future civil transport operational requirements, particularly in terms of cockpit functionality and information transfer, was the primary objective of this project. The FAA planning documents for the NAS of the 2005 era and beyond were surveyed; major aircraft functional capabilities and system components required for such an operating environment were identified. A hierarchical structured analysis of the information processing and flows emanating from such functional/system components were conducted and the results documented in graphical form depicting the relationships between functions and systems.

A Year in the Life of International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uri, John J.

2006-01-01

The past twelve months (October 2005 to September 2006) have been among the busiest in the life of the International Space Station (ISS), both in terms of on-orbit operations as well as future planning, for both ISS systems and research. The Expedition 12 and 13 crews completed their missions successfully, carrying out research for Russia, the United States, Europe and Japan, and bringing continuous ISS occupancy to nearly six years. The European Space Agency's (ESA) first Long Duration Mission on ISS is underway, involving significant international research. The Expedition 14 crew completed its training and is embarking on its own 6-month mission with a full slate of international research. Future crews are in training for their respective assembly and research missions. Shuttle flights resumed after a 10-month hiatus, delivering new research facilities and resuming assembly of ISS. ESA's Columbus research module was delivered to the Kennedy Space Center, joining Japan's Kibo research module already there. Following preflight testing, the two modules will launch in 2007 and 2008, respectively, joining Destiny as ISS's research infrastructure. A revised ISS configuration and assembly sequence were endorsed by all the Partners, with a reduced number of Shuttle flights, but for the first time including plans for post-Shuttle ISS operations after 2010. The new plan will pose significant challenges to the ISS research community. As Europe and Japan build their on-orbit research infrastructure, and long-term plans become firmer, the next 12 months should prove to be equally challenging and exciting.

Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

PubMed

Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

Using foresight methods to anticipate future threats: the case of disease management.

PubMed

Ma, Sai; Seid, Michael

2006-01-01

We describe a unique foresight framework for health care managers to use in longer-term planning. This framework uses scenario-building to envision plausible alternate futures of the U.S. health care system and links those broad futures to business-model-specific "load-bearing" assumptions. Because the framework we describe simultaneously addresses very broad and very specific issues, it can be easily applied to a broad range of health care issues by using the broad framework and business-specific assumptions for the particular case at hand. We illustrate this method using the case of disease management, pointing out that although the industry continues to grow rapidly, its future also contains great uncertainties.

The Protein Data Bank

PubMed Central

Berman, Helen M.; Westbrook, John; Feng, Zukang; Gilliland, Gary; Bhat, T. N.; Weissig, Helge; Shindyalov, Ilya N.; Bourne, Philip E.

2000-01-01

The Protein Data Bank (PDB; http://www.rcsb.org/pdb/ ) is the single worldwide archive of structural data of biological macromolecules. This paper describes the goals of the PDB, the systems in place for data deposition and access, how to obtain further information, and near-term plans for the future development of the resource. PMID:10592235

Multi-model Effort Highlights Progress, Future Needs in Renewable Energy

Science.gov Websites

January 9, 2018 Models of the U.S. electricity sector are relied upon by sector stakeholders and decision of VRE technologies. The report also documents differences in modeling methodologies and shows how long-term planning and decision-making, both for the respective agencies and for other electricity

Empirical yield tables for spruce-fir cut-over lands in the Northeast

Treesearch

Marinus Westveld

1953-01-01

Predicting future timber yields is an unavoidable task for the forest manager who is interested in growing timber as a long-term investment. He must predict yields as a basis for formulating management plans and policies. And he must predict yields from lands that differ greatly in productivity.

76 FR 49324 - National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan; National Priorities List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-10

... boundary. The length of the former rail line is approximately 10,000 feet, and because the land use changes... change in the future. Current land uses within Pine Canyon include residential, agricultural and... study areas termed the ``town,'' ``school''' and ``extension'' sections to reflect different land uses...

Compilation of climate data from heterogeneous networks across the Hawaiian Islands

Treesearch

Ryan J. Longman; Thomas W. Giambelluca; Michael A. Nullet; Abby G. Frazier; Kevin Kodama; Shelley D. Crausbay; Paul D. Krushelnycky; Susan Cordell; Martyn P. Clark; Andy J. Newman; Jeffrey R. Arnold

2018-01-01

Long-term, accurate observations of atmospheric phenomena are essential for a myriad of applications, including historic and future climate assessments, resource management, and infrastructure planning. In Hawai‘i, climate data are available from individual researchers, local, State, and Federal agencies, and from large electronic repositories such as the National...

Language in the Marketplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galloway, Vicki

These materials were developed by the South Carolina Department of Education for use in a public relations (PR) workshop for foreign language teachers. They deal with a grassroots PR campaign in terms of program planning to bridge the gap from present actuality to future possibilities. They also treat the means by which these efforts may be…

The Faculty of the Future: Leaner, Meaner, More Innovative, Less Secure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chronicle of Higher Education, 2009

2009-01-01

The faculty workplace has changed significantly in the last 20 years: More women, minority professors, and adjuncts have joined the professoriate. Information technology has led to new opportunities and expectations. The economic crisis has complicated long-term planning for scholars and institutions alike. Seven scholars from several fields and…

Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change

Treesearch

Brian Buma; Jennifer K Costanza; Kurt Riitters

2017-01-01

The scale of investigation for disturbanceinfluenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact...

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Exploring the relationship between planning and procurement in Western U.S. electric utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo; Sanstad, Alan H.; Larsen, Peter H.

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is an important regulatory process used in many U.S. states to formulate and evaluate least-cost and risk-assessed portfolios to meet future load requirements for electric utilities. In principle, effective implementation of IRP seeks to assure regulators and the public that utility investment decisions, given uncertainty, are as cost-effective as possible. However, to date, there is no empirical assessment on the effectiveness of IRP implementation. In this analysis, we compare planning, procurement processes and actual decisions for a sample of twelve load serving entities (LSEs) across the Western U. S. from 2003-2014. The 2008/2009 recession provides amore » unique “stress test” to the planning process and offers an excellent opportunity to trace how procurement decisions responded to this largely unforeseen event. In aggregate, there is a general alignment between planned and procured supply-side capacity. However, there are significant differences in the choice of supply-side resources and type of ownership for individual LSEs. We develop case studies for three LSEs and find that subsequent plans differ significantly due to changes in the planning environment and that procurement decisions in some cases are impacted by factors that are not accounted for in the planning process. Our results reveal that a limited amount of information produced during the long-term planning process (e.g., forecasts, methods, and least cost/risk portfolios) are ultimately used during the procurement process, and that the latter process relies extensively on the most recent information available for decision making. These findings suggest that states' IRP rules and regulations mandating long-term planning horizons with the same analytical complexity throughout the planning period may not create useful information for the procurement process. The social value of a long-term planning process that departs from procurement and the balance between transparency and complexity of the planning and procurement processes is an open question.« less

Post-Closure Strategy for Use-Restricted Sites on the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada Test and Training Range, and Tonopah Test Range, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silvas, A. J.

The purpose of this Post-Closure Strategy is to provide a consistent methodology for continual evaluation of post-closure requirements for use-restricted areas on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR), and Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to consolidate, modify, or streamline the program. In addition, this document stipulates the creation of a single consolidated Post-Closure Plan that will detail the current post-closure requirements for all active use restrictions (URs) and outlines its implementation and subsequent revision. This strategy will ensure effective management and control of the post-closure sites. There are currently over 200 URs located on themore » NNSS, NTTR, and TTR. Post-closure requirements were initially established in the Closure Report for each site. In some cases, changes to the post-closure requirements have been implemented through addenda, errata sheets, records of technical change, or letters. Post-closure requirements have been collected from these multiple sources and consolidated into several formats, such as summaries and databases. This structure increases the possibility of inconsistencies and uncertainty. As more URs are established and the post-closure program is expanded, the need for a comprehensive approach for managing the program will increase. Not only should the current requirements be obtainable from a single source that supersedes all previous requirements, but the strategy for modifying the requirements should be standardized. This will enable more effective management of the program into the future. This strategy document and the subsequent comprehensive plan are to be implemented under the assumption that the NNSS and outlying sites will be under the purview of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration for the foreseeable future. This strategy was also developed assuming that regulatory control of the sites remains static. The comprehensive plan is not intended to be a permanent long-term stewardship plan. However, it is intended to clarify requirements and identify components to effectively manage the sites until regulatory requirements are met or management of the site changes. The Environmental Management Program is required to manage these sites until the NNSS Environmental Restoration program is completed, currently planned for 2030. Prior to completion of the Environmental Restoration program, additional planning will be conducted to ensure that long-term stewardship of the sites is maintained. A comprehensive post-closure plan can be transitioned effectively into any future site-wide long-term stewardship program that may be developed. Therefore, the post-closure plan will include current aspects of the post-closure program that are also important aspects of long-term stewardship, including the following: • Management of physical and engineering controls such as fences, signs, and soil covers • Management of institutional and administrative controls such as use restrictions and real estate systems • Management of monitoring and maintenance programs • Management of information related to the sites such as geographic information system data and related documentation The strategy will also allow for periodic review and modification of any aspect of the program to ensure continued effectiveness.« less

Approach for environmental baseline water sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, K.S.

2011-01-01

Samples collected during the exploration phase of mining represent baseline conditions at the site. As such, they can be very important in forecasting potential environmental impacts should mining proceed, and can become measurements against which future changes are compared. Constituents in stream water draining mined and mineralized areas tend to be geochemically, spatially, and temporally variable, which presents challenges in collecting both exploration and baseline water-quality samples. Because short-term (daily) variations can complicate long-term trends, it is important to consider recent findings concerning geochemical variability of stream-water constituents at short-term timescales in designing sampling plans. Also, adequate water-quality information is key to forecasting potential ecological impacts from mining. Therefore, it is useful to collect baseline water samples adequate tor geochemical and toxicological modeling. This requires complete chemical analyses of dissolved constituents that include major and minor chemical elements as well as physicochemical properties (including pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen) and dissolved organic carbon. Applying chemical-equilibrium and appropriate toxicological models to water-quality information leads to an understanding of the speciation, transport, sequestration, bioavailability, and aquatic toxicity of potential contaminants. Insights gained from geochemical and toxicological modeling of water-quality data can be used to design appropriate mitigation and for economic planning for future mining activities.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Strategic Plan for the Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venerology (AEDV): FuturAEDV 2013-2017.

PubMed

Ribera Pibernat, M; Moreno Jiménez, J C; Valcuende Cavero, F; Soto de Delás, J; Vázquez Veiga, H; Lázaro Ochaíta, P; Giménez Arnau, A

2014-09-01

The Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (AEDV) has decided that a Strategic Plan is needed to help the association adapt to new circumstances and anticipate future developments. 1) To position the AEDV as a medical association that can exert an influence in everything related to dermatology. 2) To contribute to the development of the specialty, strengthening the prestige and reputation of dermatology and dermatologists. 3) To establish a model for operating and strategic thinking that can be handed on to successive Boards of Directors and will enable the Academy to identify future challenges. The approach used to develop the Strategic Plan was as follows: analysis of trends in the health care system; assessment of the current situation of AEDV and of dermatology in general through an internal analysis based on surveys and interviews with academics; analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; preparation of a mission statement; and identification, development, and implementation of a strategy map prioritizing strategic lines of action. The strategy map set out 16 general goals grouped into 4 main topics (achieving the vision, internal and external customers, internal processes, and innovation) and detailed in an action plan with 19 initiatives, each with specific actions. The plan will be monitored by the Strategic Plan Monitoring Committee, which is made up of the members of the Standing Committee and the chairs of the 9 Technical Committees responsible for implementing the initiatives. The Functional Plan should guide the management of AEDV until 2017, and its implementation will enable the association to contribute to the development and prestige of the specialty and position itself as a reference in terms of its functional model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y AEDV. All rights reserved.

Emerging trends in the finance and delivery of long-term care: public and private opportunities and challenges.

PubMed

Cohen, M A

1998-02-01

A number of key trends are emerging in long-term care related to financing, new models of service delivery, and shifts in consumer expectations and preferences. Taken together, changes occurring in these areas point to a rapidly transforming long-term care landscape. Financing responsibility is shifting away from the federal government to states, individuals, and their families; providers are integrating and managing acute and long-term care services and adding new services to the continuum of care; and consumers are thinking more seriously about how to plan and pay for their future care needs, as well as how to independently navigate the long-term care system.

Strategic Energy Management Plan for the Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davenport, Lars; Smythe, Louisa; Sarquilla, Lindsey

2015-03-27

This plan outlines the Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians’ comprehensive energy management strategy including an assessment of current practices, a commitment to improving energy performance and reducing overall energy use, and recommended actions to achieve these goals. Vision Statement The primary objective of the Strategic Energy Management Plan is to implement energy efficiency, energy security, conservation, education, and renewable energy projects that align with the economic goals and cultural values of the community to improve the health and welfare of the tribe. The intended outcomes of implementing the energy plan include job creation, capacity building, and reduced energy costsmore » for tribal community members, and tribal operations. By encouraging energy independence and local power production the plan will promote self-sufficiency. Mission & Objectives The Strategic Energy Plan will provide information and suggestions to guide tribal decision-making and provide a foundation for effective management of energy resources within the Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians (SYBCI) community. The objectives of developing this plan include; Assess current energy demand and costs of all tribal enterprises, offices, and facilities; Provide a baseline assessment of the SYBCI’s energy resources so that future progress can be clearly and consistently measured, and current usage better understood; Project future energy demand; Establish a system for centralized, ongoing tracking and analysis of tribal energy data that is applicable across sectors, facilities, and activities; Develop a unifying vision that is consistent with the tribe’s long-term cultural, social, environmental, and economic goals; Identify and evaluate the potential of opportunities for development of long-term, cost effective energy sources, such as renewable energy, energy efficiency and conservation, and other feasible supply- and demand-side options; and Build the SYBCI’s capacity for understanding, managing, and developing energy resources by identifying training, distribution of information materials, and community meeting needs and opportunities« less

Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akins, F. R.

1979-01-01

Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

Rapid Geriatric Assessment of Hip Fracture.

PubMed

Zanker, Jesse; Duque, Gustavo

2017-08-01

A comprehensive geriatric assessment, combined with a battery of imaging and blood tests, should be able to identify those hip fracture patients who are at higher risk of short- and long-term complications. This comprehensive assessment should be followed by the implementation of a comprehensive multidimensional care plan aimed to prevent negative outcomes in the postoperative period (short and long term), thus assuring a safe and prompt functional recovery while also preventing future falls and fractures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a Robust Strategy for Implementing a Water Resources Master Plan in Lima, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, N.; Groves, D.; Bonzanigo, L.; Molina-Perez, E.

2015-12-01

Lima, the capital of Peru, faces significant water stress. It is the fifth largest metropolitan area in Latin America, and the second largest desert city in the world. The city has developed a Master Plan of major investment projects to improve water reliability until 2040. Yet key questions remain. Is the Master Plan sufficient for ensuring reliability in the face of deeply uncertain future climate change and demand? How do uncertain budget and project feasibility conditions shape Lima's options? How should the investments in the plan be prioritized, and can some be delayed? Lima is not alone in facing these planning challenges. Governments invest billions of dollars annually in long-term projects. Yet deep uncertainties pose formidable challenges to making near-term decisions that make long-term sense. The World Bank has spearheaded a community of practice on methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMU). This pilot project in Peru is the first in-depth application of DMU techniques to water supply planning in a developing country. It builds on prior analysis done in New York, California, and for the Colorado River, yet shows how these methods can be applied in regions which do not have as advanced data or tools available. The project combines three methods in particular -- Robust Decision Making, Decision Scaling, and Adaptive Pathways -- to help Lima implement its Master Plan in a way that is robust, no-regret, and adaptive. It was done in close partnership with SEDAPAL, the water utility company in Lima, and in coordination with other national WRM and meteorological agencies. This talk will: Present the planning challenges Lima and other cities face, including climate change Describe DMU methodologies and how they were applied in collaboration with SEDAPAL Summarize recommendations for achieving long-term water reliability in Lima Suggest how these methodologies can benefit other investment projects in developing countries.

Using genetic algorithms to optimise current and future health planning--the example of ambulance locations.

PubMed

Sasaki, Satoshi; Comber, Alexis J; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Brunsdon, Chris

2010-01-28

Ambulance response time is a crucial factor in patient survival. The number of emergency cases (EMS cases) requiring an ambulance is increasing due to changes in population demographics. This is decreasing ambulance response times to the emergency scene. This paper predicts EMS cases for 5-year intervals from 2020, to 2050 by correlating current EMS cases with demographic factors at the level of the census area and predicted population changes. It then applies a modified grouping genetic algorithm to compare current and future optimal locations and numbers of ambulances. Sets of potential locations were evaluated in terms of the (current and predicted) EMS case distances to those locations. Future EMS demands were predicted to increase by 2030 using the model (R2 = 0.71). The optimal locations of ambulances based on future EMS cases were compared with current locations and with optimal locations modelled on current EMS case data. Optimising the location of ambulance stations locations reduced the average response times by 57 seconds. Current and predicted future EMS demand at modelled locations were calculated and compared. The reallocation of ambulances to optimal locations improved response times and could contribute to higher survival rates from life-threatening medical events. Modelling EMS case 'demand' over census areas allows the data to be correlated to population characteristics and optimal 'supply' locations to be identified. Comparing current and future optimal scenarios allows more nuanced planning decisions to be made. This is a generic methodology that could be used to provide evidence in support of public health planning and decision making.

Gaudi Evolution for Future Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemencic, M.; Hegner, B.; Leggett, C.

2017-10-01

The LHCb Software Framework Gaudi was initially designed and developed almost twenty years ago, when computing was very different from today. It has also been used by a variety of other experiments, including ATLAS, Daya Bay, GLAST, HARP, LZ, and MINERVA. Although it has been always actively developed all these years, stability and backward compatibility have been favoured, reducing the possibilities of adopting new techniques, like multithreaded processing. R&D efforts like GaudiHive have however shown its potential to cope with the new challenges. In view of the LHC second Long Shutdown approaching and to prepare for the computing challenges for the Upgrade of the collider and the detectors, now is a perfect moment to review the design of Gaudi and plan future developments of the project. To do this LHCb, ATLAS and the Future Circular Collider community joined efforts to bring Gaudi forward and prepare it for the upcoming needs of the experiments. We present here how Gaudi will evolve in the next years and the long term development plans.

Overview of ESA life support activities in preparation of future exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasseur, Christophe; Paille, Christel

2016-07-01

Since 1987, the European Space Agency has been active in the field of Life Support development. When compare to its international colleagues, it is clear that ESA started activities in the field with a "delay of around 25 years. Due to this situation and to avoid duplication, ESA decided to focus more on long term manned missions and to consider more intensively regenerative technologies as well as the associated risks management ( e.g. physical, chemical and contaminants). Fortunately or not, during the same period, no clear plan of exploration and consequently not specific requirements materialized. This force ESA to keep a broader and generic approach of all technologies. Today with this important catalogue of technologies and know-how, ESA is contemplating the different scenario of manned exploration beyond LEO. In this presentation we review the key scenario of future exploration, and identify the key technologies who loo the more relevant. An more detailed status is presented on the key technologies and their development plan for the future.

Polypharmacy among the elderly in the Republic of Srpska: extent and implications for the future.

PubMed

Marković-Peković, Vanda; Škrbić, Ranko; Petrović, Aleksandar; Vlahović-Palčevski, Vera; Mrak, Jana; Bennie, Marion; Fadare, Joseph; Kwon, Hye-Young; Schiffers, Krijn; Truter, Ilse; Godman, Brian

2016-10-01

The prescribing of medicines is a fundamental component of care for the elderly; however, there is increasing concern with polypharmacy and its impact on morbidity, mortality and costs. As a result, long-term prescription-medicine use and the prevalence of polypharmacy in the elderly in the Republic of Srpska were analyzed. The findings were subsequently used to suggest potential future measures. A retrospective study of all elderly patients during 2005-2010 stratified by age group (three groups), sex and long-term medicine use was performed. Polypharmacy (five or more medicines) increased from 1.4% of the elderly taking medicines long-term to 3.6% by 2010, with 53.6% of elderly taking two or more medicines long-term. The most prevalent diseases were cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Most prescriptions were in accordance with recent guidelines; however, there was a concern with appreciable prescribing of digoxin and aminophylline. Whilst polypharmacy rates are low in the Republic, the increasing rate is a concern. Further studies are planned.

Health planning as context-dependent language play.

PubMed

Degeling, P

1996-01-01

The concept of planning as context-dependent language play is proposed as a heuristic device to overcome shortcomings which are traced to the planner centered, means-end and prescriptive orientations of much of the existing literature on health planning. The model proposed suggests that planning should be analysed not simply in terms of the capacities and/or responsibilities that it claims to assign to planners, but also in the way that different planning discourses are mobilized, for strategic effect, by a range of other players in front-stage and back-stage settings. Within this conception, a planning exercise comes to be seen as an episode in dramas which have been running for extended periods of time. What distinguishes planning episodes from others in these dramas, is not simply the entry of players designated as planners, but also the discourses that both planners and other players mobilize as they attempt to structure and contest their relationships with one another. The implications of what this conception of planning holds for future research are then discussed.

Spacelab - Ten years of international cooperation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bignier, M.; Harrington, J. C.; Sander, M. J.

1983-01-01

The history, current status, and future plans of the Spacelab program are reviewed, with a focus on the cooperative relationship between ESA and NASA. The initial decision to undertake the program and the three agreements signed to begin its implementation are examined, and the division of responsibilities and financial contributions is discussed insofar as it affected the management structure. Consideration is given to the major facilities, the 50-mission operational cycle, communications, the currently scheduled activities (through 1985), the prospective later uses, and the ten dedicated discipline laboratories. The importance of continuous mutual support during the planning and development phases is stressed. The program so far is considered a success, in terms of the goals set by the participants and in terms of the resolution of the problems inherent in international technological endeavors.

It's lonely at the top: Biodiversity at risk to loss from climate change

Treesearch

John L. Koprowski; Sandra L. Doumas; Melissa J. Merrick; Brittany Oleson; Erin E. Posthumus; Timothy G. Jessen; R. Nathan Gwinn

2013-01-01

Climate change is a serious immediate and long-term threat to wildlife species. State and federal agencies are working with universities and non-government organizations to predict, plan for, and mitigate such uncertainties in the future. Endemic species may be particularly at-risk as climate-induced changes impact their limited geographic ranges. The Madrean...

The Next Linear Collider Program-News

Science.gov Websites

The Next Linear Collider at SLAC Navbar The Next Linear Collider In The Press The Secretary of Linear Collider is a high-priority goal of this plan. http://www.sc.doe.gov/Sub/Facilities_for_future/20 -term projects in conceputal stages (the Linear Collider is the highest priority project in this

Space Propulsion Synergy Group ETO technology assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, James

There exists within the aerospace community a widely recognized need to improve future space launch systems. While these needs have been expressed by many national committees, potential solutions have not achieved consensus nor have they endured. Facing the challenge to remain competitive with limited national resources, the U.S. must improve its strategic planning efforts. A nationally accepted strategic plan for space would enable a focused research & development program. The Space Propulsion Synergy Group (SPSG), chartered to support long range strategic planning, has achieved several breakthroughs. First, using a broad industry/government team, the SPSG evaluated and achieved consensus on the vehicles, propulsion systems, and propulsion technologies that have the best long term potential for achieving desired system attributes. The breakthrough that enabled broad consensus was developing criteria that are measurable a-priori. Second, realizing that systems having the best long term payoffs can loose support when constraints are tight, the SPSG invented a dual prioritization approach that balances long term strategic thrusts with current programmatic constraints. This breakthrough enables individual program managers to make decisions based on both individual project needs and long term strategic needs. Results indicate that a SSTO using an integrated modular engine has the best long term potential for a 20 Klb class vehicle and that health monitoring and control technologies rank among the highest dual priority liquid rocket technologies.

Advances and Future Directions for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Research: Recommendations from the 2015 Strategic Planning Conference

PubMed Central

Sahin, Mustafa; Henske, Elizabeth P.; Manning, Brendan D.; Ess, Kevin C.; Bissler, John J.; Klann, Eric; Kwiatkowski, David J.; Roberds, Steven L.; Silva, Alcino J.; Hillaire-Clarke, Coryse St.; Young, Lisa R.; Zervas, Mark; Mamounas, Laura A.

2016-01-01

On March 10–12, 2015, the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and the Tuberous Sclerosis Alliance sponsored a workshop in Bethesda, Maryland to assess progress and new opportunities for research in tuberous sclerosis complex with the goal of updating the 2003 Research Plan for Tuberous Sclerosis (http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/tscler_research_plan.htm). In addition to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and Tuberous Sclerosis Alliance, participants in the strategic planning effort and workshop included representatives from six other Institutes of the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Defense Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Research Program and a broad cross-section of basic scientists and clinicians with expertise in tuberous sclerosis complex along with representatives from the pharmaceutical industry. This review summarizes outcomes from the extensive pre-meeting deliberations and final workshop recommendations, and includes: 1) progress in the field since publication of the initial 2003 research plan for tuberous sclerosis complex; 2) the key gaps, needs and challenges that hinder progress in tuberous sclerosis complex research; and 3) a new set of research priorities along with specific recommendations for addressing the major challenges in each priority area. The new research plan is organized around both short-term and long-term goals with the expectation that progress toward specific objectives can be achieved within a five- to ten-year timeframe. PMID:27267556

Use of focus groups in a library's strategic planning process.

PubMed

Higa-Moore, Mori Lou; Bunnett, Brian; Mayo, Helen G; Olney, Cynthia A

2002-01-01

The use of focus groups to determine patron satisfaction with library resources and services is extensive and well established. This article demonstrates how focus groups can also be used to help shape the future direction of a library as part of the strategic planning process. By responding to questions about their long-term library and information needs, focus group participants at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas Library contributed an abundance of qualitative patron data that was previously lacking from this process. The selection and recruitment of these patrons is discussed along with the line of questioning used in the various focus group sessions. Of special interest is the way the authors utilized these sessions to mobilize and involve the staff in creating the library's strategic plan. This was accomplished not only by having staff members participate in one of the sessions but also by sharing the project's major findings with them and instructing them in how these findings related to the library's future. The authors' experience demonstrates that focus groups are an effective strategic planning tool for libraries and emphasizes the need to share information broadly, if active involvement of the staff is desired in both the development and implementation of the library's strategic plan.

Use of focus groups in a library's strategic planning process

PubMed Central

Higa-Moore, Mori Lou; Bunnett, Brian; Mayo, Helen G.; Olney, Cynthia A.

2002-01-01

The use of focus groups to determine patron satisfaction with library resources and services is extensive and well established. This article demonstrates how focus groups can also be used to help shape the future direction of a library as part of the strategic planning process. By responding to questions about their long-term library and information needs, focus group participants at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas Library contributed an abundance of qualitative patron data that was previously lacking from this process. The selection and recruitment of these patrons is discussed along with the line of questioning used in the various focus group sessions. Of special interest is the way the authors utilized these sessions to mobilize and involve the staff in creating the library's strategic plan. This was accomplished not only by having staff members participate in one of the sessions but also by sharing the project's major findings with them and instructing them in how these findings related to the library's future. The authors' experience demonstrates that focus groups are an effective strategic planning tool for libraries and emphasizes the need to share information broadly, if active involvement of the staff is desired in both the development and implementation of the library's strategic plan. PMID:11838465

Psychotherapeutic and work-oriented interventions: employment outcomes among young adults with work disability due to a mental disorder.

PubMed

Mattila-Holappa, Pauliina; Joensuu, Matti; Ahola, Kirsi; Koskinen, Aki; Tuisku, Katinka; Ervasti, Jenni; Virtanen, Marianna

2016-01-01

We examined the extent to which psychotherapeutic and work-oriented interventions were included in a medical treatment and rehabilitation plan and whether they predicted future employment among young adults with work disability due to a mental disorder. Data were obtained from the treatment and rehabilitation plans of 1163 young adults aged 18‒34 years, who in 2008 were granted fixed-term work disability compensation due to a mental disorder and were followed for 5 years. Forty-six percent had no proposal for psychotherapy or a work-oriented intervention in their treatment and rehabilitation plan, 22 % had a plan for only a psychotherapeutic intervention, 23 % had a plan for only a work-oriented intervention, and 10 % had both types of interventions planned. Having a planned psychotherapeutic intervention (HR = 1.35, 95 % CI 1.07-1.69) and of the work-oriented interventions, planned rehabilitative courses and training (HR = 1.34, 95 % CI 1.03-1.70) predicted quicker entry into competitive employment. Having a plan for both a psychotherapeutic and work-oriented intervention was associated with being employed at the end of the follow-up (OR = 1.77, 95 % CI 1.07-2.95). Young adults with a long-term psychiatric work disability episode rarely have a recorded plan for rehabilitation in their treatment and rehabilitation plan although psychotherapeutic interventions and a combination of a psychotherapeutic and work-oriented intervention might help them gain employment.

Development of Download System for Waveform Data Observed at Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System installed in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuboi, Seiji; Horikawa, Hiroki; Takaesu, Morifumi; Sueki, Kentaro; Araki, Eiichiro; Sonoda, Akira; Takahashi, Narumi

2016-04-01

The Nankai Trough in southwest Japan is one of most active subduction zone in the world. Great mega-thrust earthquakes repeatedly occurred every 100 to 150 years in this area, it's anticipated to occur in the not distant future. For the purpose of elucidation of the history of mega-splay fault activity, the physical properties of the geological strata and the internal structure of the accretionary prism, and monitoring of diastrophism in this area, we have a plan, Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiments (NanTroSEIZE), as a part of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP). We have a plan to install the borehole observation system in a few locations by the NanTroSEIZE. This system is called Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System, it consists of various sensors in the borehole such as a broadband seismometer, a tiltmeter, a strainmeter, geophones and accelerometer, thermometer array as well as pressure ports for pore-fluid pressure monitoring. The signal from sensors is transmitted to DONET (Dense Ocean-floor Network System for Earthquake and Tsunamis) in real time. During IODP Exp. 332 in December 2010, the first Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System was installed into the C0002 borehole site located 80 km off the Kii Peninsula, 1938 m water depth in the Nankai Trough. We have developed a web application system for data download, Long-Term Borehole Monitoring Data Site. Based on a term and sensors which user selected on this site, user can download monitoring waveform data (e.g. broadband seismometer data, accelerometer data, strainmeter data, tiltmeter data) in near real-time. This system can make the arbitrary data which user selected a term and sensors, and download it simply. Downloadable continuous data is provided in seed format, which includes sensor informations. In addition, before data download, user can check that data is abailable or not by data check function. In this presentation, we show our web application system and discuss our future plans for developments of monitoring data download system.

Discharge planning in mental health care: an integrative review of the literature.

PubMed

Nurjannah, Intansari; Mills, Jane; Usher, Kim; Park, Tanya

2014-05-01

To identify the evidence base related to discharge planning in the context of acute and community mental healthcare service provision to ascertain the need for future research. Discharge planning is an important activity when preparing consumers to transition from hospital to home. The efficiency of discharge planning for consumers living with a mental health issue can influence both the number of future readmissions to acute-care facilities and their quality of life at home. An integrative review of the peer-reviewed literature. This review uses specific search terms and a 21-year time frame to search two key nursing databases CINAHL (Cinahl Information Systems, Glendale, CA, USA) and PSYCHINFO (American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, USA) for research reports investigating the substantive area of enquiry. Hand searches of reference lists and author searches were also conducted. Nineteen peer-reviewed journal articles met the inclusion criteria for this review. Research findings about discharge planning for people living with a mental health issue identify the importance of communication between health professionals, consumers and their families to maximise the effectiveness of this process. The complexity of consumer's healthcare needs influences the discharge planning process and impacts on aftercare compliance and readmission rates. There is a limited amount of research findings relating to differences between health professionals and families' perceptions of the level of information required for effective discharge planning, and the appropriate level of involvement of individuals living with a mental health issue in their own discharge planning. Results from this integrative review will inform future research related to this topic. Discharge planning for consumers living with a mental health issue involves many stakeholders who have different expectations regarding the type of information required and the necessary level of involvement of people living with a mental health issue in this process. Comprehensive discharge planning can result in reduced readmissions to both acute and community mental health services. Understanding the impact of effective communication on the outcomes of discharge planning is an important step in promoting success. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying the Correlates and Barriers of Future Planning Among Parents of Individuals With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Burke, Meghan; Arnold, Catherine; Owen, Aleksa

2018-04-01

Although individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are living longer lives, fewer than half of parents of individuals with IDD conduct future planning. The correlates and barriers to future planning must be identified to develop targeted interventions to facilitate future planning. In this study, 388 parents of individuals with IDD responded to a national, web-based survey. Participants who were older, more educated, attended more parent training and support activities, and had children with fewer functional abilities, were more likely to engage in future planning. Reported barriers to future planning included: (a) lack of available services, (b) financial challenges, (c) reluctance of family members, (d) lack of time, (e) the emotional nature of future planning, (f) inertia, and (g) a lack of family members to be caregivers. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.

Adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV: emerging behavioral and health needs for long-term survivors.

PubMed

Koenig, Linda J; Nesheim, Steven; Abramowitz, Susan

2011-10-01

Because of widespread availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy in the developed world, a large proportion of children with perinatally acquired HIV have survived to adolescence and young adulthood. Although their survival is remarkable, many now experience the long-term effects of HIV infection and its treatment. Further, as these youths have entered adolescence, more is known about the impact of normative developmental transitions on health maintenance behaviors. Although perinatally infected adolescents are healthier than they were a decade or more ago, they are significantly experienced with antiretroviral therapy, with increased virological resistance and other consequences of extended antiretroviral use. Three behavioral health challenges have been documented in the first cohort of long-term survivors: decreased medication adherence, sexual debut and accompanying pregnancy and transmission risk, and mental health problems. These issues are consistent with a developmental press for autonomy, mature sexual relationships and future planning, but must be carefully managed to preserve health. Adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV require coordinated multidisciplinary support services - including adherence support, reproductive health counseling addressing both pregnancy planning and disease transmission, and mental health and educational/vocational planning - so that they can fully benefit from treatment advances. (C) 2011 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Using operations research to plan the british columbia registered nurses' workforce.

PubMed

Lavieri, Mariel S; Regan, Sandra; Puterman, Martin L; Ratner, Pamela A

2008-11-01

The authors explore the power and flexibility of using an operations research methodology known as linear programming to support health human resources (HHR) planning. The model takes as input estimates of the future need for healthcare providers and, in contrast to simulation, compares all feasible strategies to identify a long-term plan for achieving a balance between supply and demand at the least cost to the system. The approach is illustrated by using it to plan the British Columbia registered nurse (RN) workforce over a 20-year horizon. The authors show how the model can be used for scenario analysis by investigating the impact of decreasing attrition from educational programs, changing RN-to-manager ratios in direct care and exploring how other changes might alter planning recommendations. In addition to HHR policy recommendations, their analysis also points to new research opportunities. Copyright © 2008 Longwoods Publishing.

An Individual Perspective on Risk in a DC (Usually 401(k)) Environment.

PubMed

Rappaport, Anna M

2016-01-01

Traditional benefit packages once typically included defined benefit (DB) pension plans and focused on identifying the key financial risks facing employees, deciding which were more serious and developing strategies to protect employees from those risks. Today, defined contribution (DC) plans often are the primary retirement security vehicle, and much of the risk protection has been taken out of the benefits package. This article focuses on some of the risks facing employees, identifies which are covered by the typical 401(k) plan and which are not and provides ideas for managing risks not covered directly by the typical plan. There is substantial focus on long-term disability and longevity. The discussion spans savings and payout periods and suggests some ideas for the future, including greater integration of 401(k) plans with risk protection approaches. The article does not focus on investment risk and options.

Collaborative Adaptation Planning for Water Security: Preliminary Lessons, Challenges, and the Way Forward for Maipo Basin Adaptation Plan, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Scott, C. A.; Bonelli, S.; Bustos, E.; Meza, F. J.

2014-12-01

The Maipo basin holds 40% of Chile's total population and almost half of the country's Gross Domestic Product. The basin is located in the semiarid central region of the country and, aside from the typical pressures of growth in developing country basins, the Maipo river faces climate change impacts associated with a reduction in total runoff and changes in its seasonality. Surface water is the main water source for human settlements and economic activities including agriculture. In 2012 we started a research project to create a climate variability and climate change adaptation plan for the basin. The pillars of the plan are co-produced by researchers and a Scenario Building Team (SBT) with membership of relevant water and land use stakeholders (including from civil society, public and private sectors) in the basin. Following similar experiences in other regions in the world that have faced the challenges of dealing with long term planning under uncertainty, the project has divided the task of developing the plan into a series of interconnected elements. A critical first component is to work on the desired vision(s) of the basin for the future. In this regards, the "water security" concept has been chosen as a framework that accommodates all objectives of the SBT members. Understanding and quantifying the uncertainties that could affect the future water security of the basin is another critical aspect of the plan. Near and long term climate scenarios are one dimension of these uncertainties that are combined with base development uncertainties such as urban growth scenarios. A third component constructs the models/tools that allows the assessment of impacts on water security that could arise under these scenarios. The final critical component relates to the development of the adaptation measures that could avoid the negative impacts and/or capture the potential opportunities. After two years in the development of the adaptation plan a series of results has been achieved in all critical components that are presented here. The success in the process now poses a series of new challenges, most importantly: how to implement and monitor the evolution of the adaptation process.

Assessing Vulnerability under Uncertainty in the Colorado River Basin: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerla, C.; Adams, P.; Butler, A.; Nowak, K.; Prairie, J. R.

2013-12-01

Spanning parts of the seven states, of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming, the Colorado River is one of the most critical sources of water in the western United States. Colorado River allocations exceed the long-term supply and since the 1950s, there have been a number of years when the annual water use in the Colorado River Basin exceeded the yield. The Basin is entering its second decade of drought conditions which brings challenges that will only be compounded if projections of climate change are realized. It was against this backdrop that the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study was conducted. The Study's objectives are to define current and future imbalances in the Basin over the next 50 years and to develop and analyze adaptation and mitigation strategies to resolve those imbalances. Long-term planning in the Basin involves the integration of uncertainty with respect to a changing climate and other uncertainties such as future demand and how policies may be modified to adapt to changing reliability. The Study adopted a scenario planning approach to address this uncertainty in which thousands of scenarios were developed to encompass a wide range of plausible future water supply and demand conditions. Using Reclamation's long-term planning model, the Colorado River Simulation System, the reliability of the system to meet Basin resource needs under these future conditions was projected both with and without additional future adaptation strategies in place. System reliability metrics were developed in order to define system vulnerabilities, the conditions that lead to those vulnerabilities, and sign posts to indicate if the system is approaching a vulnerable state. Options and strategies that reduce these vulnerabilities and improve system reliability were explored through the development of portfolios. Four portfolios, each with different management strategies, were analyzed to assess their effectiveness at reducing system vulnerabilities and the improving the resiliency of the Basin to vulnerable conditions. The Study is the most comprehensive long-term assessment to date of the Basin and it confirmed that without action, the Colorado River system will become increasingly challenged to sustain the communities and resources that rely on its water supply. The Study was conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation and its consultant team (CH2M Hill, Black & Veatch, and the RAND Corporation) and the seven Colorado River Basin States, in collaboration with a broad range of stakeholders throughout the Basin. The Study's strong technical foundation forms a basis from which important discussions can begin regarding possible actions to resolve future supply and demand imbalances in order to help ensure the sustainability of the Colorado River system. This talk will provide an overview of the Study's approach and findings, with a focus on the Study's assessment and characterization of vulnerability under uncertainty.

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

2014-07-01

Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

Too early to tell, or too late to rescue? Adaptive management under scrutiny.

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

2001-01-01

Key to the long-term success of implementing the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) is adaptive management—the idea of treating management policies as experiments, learning from them, and using them as a basis for changes and adjustments. Although much of the NWFP involves standards and guides that prescribe future management, and restrictive allocations such as...

Numerical Simulation of Ground Coupling of Low Yield Nuclear Detonation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Without nuclear testing, advanced simulation and experimental facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility ( NIF ), are essential to assuring...in planning future experimental work at NIF . 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 93 14. SUBJECT TERMS National Ignition Facility, GEODYN, Ground Coupling...simulation and experimental facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility ( NIF ), are essential to assuring safety, reliability, and effectiveness

Forest futures in the Anthropocene: Can trees and humans survive together?

Treesearch

David Bengston; Michael J. Dockry

2014-01-01

Foresters and futurists share a long-range perspective. The lengthy growing cycle of trees has compelled foresters to plan decades and even hundreds of years ahead, in contrast to the short-term view of most fields. The interconnected nature of forest ecosystems has also given foresters—like futurists—a systems perspective. As the American naturalist...

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

PubMed Central

Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

1994-01-01

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Physics of risk and uncertainty in quantum decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2009-10-01

The Quantum Decision Theory, developed recently by the authors, is applied to clarify the role of risk and uncertainty in decision making and in particular in relation to the phenomenon of dynamic inconsistency. By formulating this notion in precise mathematical terms, we distinguish three types of inconsistency: time inconsistency, planning paradox, and inconsistency occurring in some discounting effects. While time inconsistency is well accounted for in classical decision theory, the planning paradox is in contradiction with classical utility theory. It finds a natural explanation in the frame of the Quantum Decision Theory. Different types of discounting effects are analyzed and shown to enjoy a straightforward explanation within the suggested theory. We also introduce a general methodology based on self-similar approximation theory for deriving the evolution equations for the probabilities of future prospects. This provides a novel classification of possible discount factors, which include the previously known cases (exponential or hyperbolic discounting), but also predicts a novel class of discount factors that decay to a strictly positive constant for very large future time horizons. This class may be useful to deal with very long-term discounting situations associated with intergenerational public policy choices, encompassing issues such as global warming and nuclear waste disposal.

Surface-water investigations at Barrow, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Stanley H.

1972-01-01

The U.S. Public Health Service is currently developing plans for a long-term water supply and sewage treatment system for the village of Barrow, Alaska. To assist in planning, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to initiate a cooperative streamflow data-collection program with the U.S. Public Health Service in June 1972 to determine the availability of surface water and the areal distribution of runoff in the Barrow area. This basic-data report summarizes the streamflow data collected from June 1 through July 10, 1972, at three gaging stations in the Barrow area (fig. 1) and discusses the future data-collection program.

Operations analysis (study 2.1). Contingency analysis. [of failure modes anticipated during space shuttle upper stage planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Future operational concepts for the space transportation system were studied in terms of space shuttle upper stage failure contingencies possible during deployment, retrieval, or space servicing of automated satellite programs. Problems anticipated during mission planning were isolated using a modified 'fault tree' technique, normally used in safety analyses. A comprehensive space servicing hazard analysis is presented which classifies possible failure modes under the catagories of catastrophic collision, failure to rendezvous and dock, servicing failure, and failure to undock. The failure contingencies defined are to be taken into account during design of the upper stage.

Time evolving multi-city dependencies and robustness tradeoffs for risk-based portfolios of conservation, transfers, and cooperative water supply infrastructure development pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.; Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Water scarcity in historically water-rich regions such as the southeastern United States is becoming a more prevalent concern. It has been shown that cooperative short-term planning that relies on conservation and transfers of existing supplies amongst communities can be used by water utilities to mitigate the effects of water scarcity in the near future. However, in the longer term, infrastructure expansion is likely to be necessary to address imbalances between growing water demands and the available supply capacity. This study seeks to better diagnose and avoid candidate modes for system failure. Although it is becoming more common for water utilities to evaluate the robustness of their water supply, defined as the insensitivity of their systems to errors in deeply uncertain projections or assumptions, defining robustness is particularly challenging in multi-stakeholder regional contexts for decisions that encompass short management actions and long-term infrastructure planning. Planning and management decisions are highly interdependent and strongly shape how a region's infrastructure itself evolves. This research advances the concept of system robustness by making it evolve over time rather than static, so that it is applicable to an adaptive system and therefore more suited for use for combined short and long-term planning efforts. The test case for this research is the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, where the cities of Raleigh, Durham, Cary and Chapel Hill are experiencing rapid population growth and increasing concerns over drought. This study is facilitating their engagement in cooperative and robust regional water portfolio planning. The insights from this work have general merit for regions where adjacent municipalities can benefit from improving cooperative infrastructure investments and more efficient resource management strategies.

The Past, Present, and Future of Public Health Surveillance

PubMed Central

Choi, Bernard C. K.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a review of the past, present, and future of public health surveillance—the ongoing systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of health data for the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health action. Public health surveillance dates back to the first recorded epidemic in 3180 B.C. in Egypt. Hippocrates (460 B.C.–370 B.C.) coined the terms endemic and epidemic, John Graunt (1620–1674) introduced systematic data analysis, Samuel Pepys (1633–1703) started epidemic field investigation, William Farr (1807–1883) founded the modern concept of surveillance, John Snow (1813–1858) linked data to intervention, and Alexander Langmuir (1910–1993) gave the first comprehensive definition of surveillance. Current theories, principles, and practice of public health surveillance are summarized. A number of surveillance dichotomies, such as epidemiologic surveillance versus public health surveillance, are described. Some future scenarios are presented, while current activities that can affect the future are summarized: exploring new frontiers; enhancing computer technology; improving epidemic investigations; improving data collection, analysis, dissemination, and use; building on lessons from the past; building capacity; enhancing global surveillance. It is concluded that learning from the past, reflecting on the present, and planning for the future can further enhance public health surveillance. PMID:24278752

Short-term international migration trends in England and Wales from 2004 to 2009.

PubMed

Whitworth, Simon; Loukas, Konstantinos; McGregor, Ian

2011-01-01

Short-term migration estimates for England and Wales are the latest addition to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics. This article discusses definitions of short-term migration and the methodology that is used to produce the estimates. Some of the estimates and the changes in the estimates over time are then discussed. The article includes previously unpublished short-term migration statistics and therefore helps to give a more complete picture of the size and characteristics of short-term international migration for England and Wales than has previously been possible. ONS have identified a clear user requirement for short-term migration estimates at local authority (LA) level. Consequently, attention is also paid to the progress that has been made and future work that is planned to distribute England and Wales short-term migration estimates to LA level.

Reducing the cost of health care capital.

PubMed

Silberman, R

1984-08-01

Although one may ask four financial experts their opinion on the future of the hospital capital market and receive five answers, the blatant need for financial strategic planning is evident. Clearly, the hospital or system with sound financial management will be better positioned to gain and/or maintain an edge in the competitive environment of the health care sector. The trends of the future include hospitals attempting to: Maximize the efficiency of invested capital. Use the expertise of Board members. Use alternative capital sources. Maximize rate of return on investments. Increase productivity. Adjust to changes in reimbursements. Restructure to use optimal financing for capital needs, i.e., using short-term to build up debt capacity if long-term financing is needed in the future. Take advantage of arbitrage (obtain capital and reinvest it until the funds are needed). Delay actual underwriting until funds are to be used. Better management of accounts receivable and accounts payable to avoid short-term financing for cash flow shortfalls. Use for-profit subsidiaries to obtain venture capital by issuing stock. Use product line management. Use leasing to obtain balance sheet advantages. These trends indicate a need for hospital executives to possess a thorough understanding of the capital formation process. In essence, the bottom line is that the short-term viability and long-term survival of a health care organization will greatly depend on the financial expertise of its decision-makers.

Evaluation of Robustness to Setup and Range Uncertainties for Head and Neck Patients Treated With Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malyapa, Robert; Lowe, Matthew; Christie Medical Physics and Engineering, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester

Purpose: To evaluate the robustness of head and neck plans for treatment with intensity modulated proton therapy to range and setup errors, and to establish robustness parameters for the planning of future head and neck treatments. Methods and Materials: Ten patients previously treated were evaluated in terms of robustness to range and setup errors. Error bar dose distributions were generated for each plan, from which several metrics were extracted and used to define a robustness database of acceptable parameters over all analyzed plans. The patients were treated in sequentially delivered series, and plans were evaluated for both the first seriesmore » and for the combined error over the whole treatment. To demonstrate the application of such a database in the head and neck, for 1 patient, an alternative treatment plan was generated using a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) approach and plans of differing numbers of fields. Results: The robustness database for the treatment of head and neck patients is presented. In an example case, comparison of single and multiple field plans against the database show clear improvements in robustness by using multiple fields. A comparison of sequentially delivered series and an SIB approach for this patient show both to be of comparable robustness, although the SIB approach shows a slightly greater sensitivity to uncertainties. Conclusions: A robustness database was created for the treatment of head and neck patients with intensity modulated proton therapy based on previous clinical experience. This will allow the identification of future plans that may benefit from alternative planning approaches to improve robustness.« less

NASA scheduling technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adair, Jerry R.

1994-01-01

This paper is a consolidated report on ten major planning and scheduling systems that have been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). A description of each system, its components, and how it could be potentially used in private industry is provided in this paper. The planning and scheduling technology represented by the systems ranges from activity based scheduling employing artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to constraint based, iterative repair scheduling. The space related application domains in which the systems have been deployed vary from Space Shuttle monitoring during launch countdown to long term Hubble Space Telescope (HST) scheduling. This paper also describes any correlation that may exist between the work done on different planning and scheduling systems. Finally, this paper documents the lessons learned from the work and research performed in planning and scheduling technology and describes the areas where future work will be conducted.

Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

PubMed

Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

2016-01-01

Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

The Future of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Linton F.

2007-03-01

This paper will examine our plans for the future of the U.S. nuclear weapons program including efforts to ``transform'' the stockpile and supporting infrastructure. We proceed from the premise that the United States will need a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear deterrent for the foreseeable future. Moreover, the Stockpile Stewardship Program is working. Today's stockpile---comprised of legacy warheads left over from the Cold War---is safe and reliable. That said, we see increased risk, absent nuclear testing, in assuring the long-term safety and reliability of our current stockpile. Nor is today's nuclear weapons complex sufficiently ``responsive'' to fixing technical problems in the stockpile, or to potential adverse geopolitical change. Our task is to work to ensure that the U.S. nuclear weapons enterprise, including the stockpile and supporting infrastructure, meets long-term national security needs. Our approach is to develop and field replacement warheads for the legacy stockpile---so-called Reliable Replacement Warheads (RRW)---as a means to transform both the nuclear stockpile and supporting infrastructure.

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

Planning for the sustainability of community-based health programs: conceptual frameworks and future directions for research, practice and policy.

PubMed

Shediac-Rizkallah, M C; Bone, L R

1998-03-01

Attention to the sustainability of health intervention programs both in the US and abroad is increasing, but little consensus exists on the conceptual and operational definitions of sustainability. Moreover, an empirical knowledge base about the determinants of sustainability is still at an early stage. Planning for sustainability requires, first, a clear understanding of the concept of sustainability and operational indicators that may be used in monitoring sustainability over time. Important categories of indicators include: (1) maintenance of health benefits achieved through an initial program, (2) level of institutionalization of a program within an organization and (3) measures of capacity building in the recipient community. Second, planning for sustainability requires the use of programmatic approaches and strategies that favor long-term program maintenance. We suggest that the potential influences on sustainability may derive from three major groups of factors: (1) project design and implementation factors, (2) factors within the organizational setting, and (3) factors in the broader community environment. Future efforts to develop sustainable health intervention programs in communities can build on the concepts and strategies proposed here.

The 6.5-m MMT Telescope: status and plans for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, G. Grant; Ortiz, R.; Goble, W.; Gibson, J. D.

2016-08-01

The MMT Observatory, a joint venture of the Smithsonian Institution and the University of Arizona, operates the 6.5-m MMT telescope on the summit of Mount Hopkins approximately 45 miles south of Tucson, AZ. The upgraded telescope has been in routine operation for nearly fifteen years and, as such, is a very reliable and productive general purpose astronomical instrument. The telescope can be configured with one of three secondary mirrors that feed more than ten instruments at the Cassegrain focus. In this paper we provide an overview of the the telescope, its current capabilities, and its performance. We will review the existing suite of instruments and their different modes of operation. We will describe some of the general operations challenges and strategies for the Observatory. Finally, we will discuss plans for the near-term future including technical upgrades, new instrumentation and routine queue operation of MMIRS and Binospec.

Artificial Intelligent Platform as Decision Tool for Asset Management, Operations and Maintenance.

PubMed

2018-01-04

An Artificial Intelligence (AI) system has been developed and implemented for water, wastewater and reuse plants to improve management of sensors, short and long term maintenance plans, asset and investment management plans. It is based on an integrated approach to capture data from different computer systems and files. It adds a layer of intelligence to the data. It serves as a repository of key current and future operations and maintenance conditions that a plant needs have knowledge of. With this information, it is able to simulate the configuration of processes and assets for those conditions to improve or optimize operations, maintenance and asset management, using the IViewOps (Intelligent View of Operations) model. Based on the optimization through model runs, it is able to create output files that can feed data to other systems and inform the staff regarding optimal solutions to the conditions experienced or anticipated in the future.

Rendezvous, proximity operations and capture quality function deployment report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamkin, Stephen L. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Rendezvous, Proximity Operations, and Capture (RPOC) is a missions operations area which is extremely important to present and future space initiatives and must be well planned and coordinated. To support this, a study team was formed to identify a specific plan of action using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) process. This team was composed of members from a wide spectrum of engineering and operations organizations which are involved in the RPOC technology area. The key to this study's success is an understanding of the needs of potential programmatic customers and the technology base available for system implementation. To this end, the study team conducted interviews with a variety of near term and future programmatic customers and technology development sponsors. The QFD activity led to a thorough understanding of the needs of these customers in the RPOC area, as well as the relative importance of these needs.

Lunar Exploration and Science in ESA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, J.; Houdou, B.; Fisackerly, R.; De Rosa, D.; Espinasse, S.; Hufenbach, B.

2013-09-01

Lunar exploration continues to be a priority for the European Space Agency (ESA) and is recognized as the next step for human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The Moon is also recognized as an important scientific target providing vital information on the history of the inner solar system; Earth and the emergence of life, and fundamental information on the formation and evolution of terrestrial planets. The Moon also provides a platform that can be utilized for fundamental science and to prepare the way for exploration deeper into space and towards a human Mars mission, the ultimate exploration goal. Lunar missions can also provide a means of preparing for a Mars sample return mission, which is an important long term robotic milestone. ESA is preparing for future participation in lunar exploration through a combination of human and robotic activities, in cooperation with international partners. These include activities on the ISS and participation with US led Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, which is planned for a first unmanned lunar flight in 2017. Future activities planned activities also include participation in international robotic missions. These activities are performed with a view to generating the technologies, capabilities, knowledge and heritage that will make Europe an indispensible partner in the exploration missions of the future. We present ESA's plans for Lunar exploration and the current status of activities. In particular we will show that this programme gives rise to unique scientific opportunities and prepares scientifically and technologically for future exploratory steps.

Remembering the past and planning for the future in rats

PubMed Central

Crystal, Jonathon D.

2012-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that rats represent and remember specific earlier events from the past. An important criterion for validating a rodent model of episodic memory is to establish that the content of the representation is about a specific event in the past rather than vague information about remoteness. Recent evidence suggests that rats may also represent events that are anticipated to occur in the future. An important capacity afforded by a representation of the future is the ability to plan for the occurrence of a future event. However, relatively little is known about the content of represented future events and the cognitive mechanisms that may support planning. This article reviews evidence that rats remember specific earlier events from the past, represent events that are anticipated to ccur in the future, and develops criteria for validating a rodent model of future planning. These criteria include representing a specific time in the future, the ability to temporarily disengage from a plan and reactivate the plan at an appropriate time in the future, and flexibility to deploy a plan in novel conditions. PMID:23219951

Business plan writing for physicians.

PubMed

Cohn, Kenneth H; Schwartz, Richard W

2002-08-01

Physicians are practicing in an era in which they are often expected to write business plans in order to acquire, develop, and implement new technology or programs. This task is yet another reminder of the importance of business principles in providing quality patient care amid allocation of increasingly scarce resources. Unfortunately, few physicians receive training during medical school, residencies, or fellowships in performing such tasks. The process of writing business plans follows an established format similar to writing a consultation, in which the risks, benefits, and alternatives to a treatment option are presented. Although administrative assistance may be available in compiling business plans, it is important for physicians to understand the rationale, process, and pitfalls of business planning. Writing a business plan will serve to focus, clarify, and justify a request for scarce resources, and thus, increase its chance of success, both in terms of funding and implementation. A well-written business plan offers a plausible, coherent story of an uncertain future. Therefore, a business plan is not merely an exercise to obtain funding but also a rationale for investment that can help physicians reestablish leadership in health care.

Quadratic electroweak corrections for polarized Moller scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

A. Aleksejevs, S. Barkanova, Y. Kolomensky, E. Kuraev, V. Zykunov

2012-01-01

The paper discusses the two-loop (NNLO) electroweak radiative corrections to the parity violating electron-electron scattering asymmetry induced by squaring one-loop diagrams. The calculations are relevant for the ultra-precise 11 GeV MOLLER experiment planned at Jefferson Laboratory and experiments at high-energy future electron colliders. The imaginary parts of the amplitudes are taken into consideration consistently in both the infrared-finite and divergent terms. The size of the obtained partial correction is significant, which indicates a need for a complete study of the two-loop electroweak radiative corrections in order to meet the precision goals of future experiments.

Identifying the Correlates and Barriers of Future Planning among Parents of Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Meghan; Arnold, Catherine; Owen, Aleksa

2018-01-01

Although individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are living longer lives, fewer than half of parents of individuals with IDD conduct future planning. The correlates and barriers to future planning must be identified to develop targeted interventions to facilitate future planning. In this study, 388 parents of individuals…

Using multiobjective tradeoff sets and Multivariate Regression Trees to identify critical and robust decisions for long term water utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Balaji, R.

2017-12-01

In light of deeply uncertain factors like future climate change and population shifts, responsible resource management will require new types of information and strategies. For water utilities, this entails potential expansion and efficient management of water supply infrastructure systems for changes in overall supply; changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes such as droughts and floods; and variable demands, all while accounting for conflicting long and short term performance objectives. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are emerging decision support tools that have been used by researchers and, more recently, water utilities to efficiently generate and evaluate thousands of planning portfolios. The tradeoffs between conflicting objectives are explored in an automated way to produce (often large) suites of portfolios that strike different balances of performance. Once generated, the sets of optimized portfolios are used to support relatively subjective assertions of priorities and human reasoning, leading to adoption of a plan. These large tradeoff sets contain information about complex relationships between decisions and between groups of decisions and performance that, until now, has not been quantitatively described. We present a novel use of Multivariate Regression Trees (MRTs) to analyze tradeoff sets to reveal these relationships and critical decisions. Additionally, when MRTs are applied to tradeoff sets developed for different realizations of an uncertain future, they can identify decisions that are robust across a wide range of conditions and produce fundamental insights about the system being optimized.

Planning for a Nondriving Future: Behaviors and Beliefs Among Middle-Aged and Older Drivers.

PubMed

Harmon, Annie C; Babulal, Ganesh; Vivoda, Jonathon M; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Carr, David B

2018-01-01

Despite the reality of older adults living many years after driving cessation, few prepare for the eventuality; empirically, planning for a nondriving future has not been directly quantified or explored. The following study quantifies 1) the extent of current drivers' planning, 2) specific planning behaviors, 3) beliefs about benefits of planning, 4) drivers' intention to plan more for future transportation needs, and 5) group differences associated with planning. In a predominantly female, black, urban sample of current drivers ages 53-92, fewer than half (42.1%) had planned at all for a nondriving future, with correspondingly low levels of planning behaviors reported. However, over 80% believed planning would help them meet their needs post-cessation and transition emotionally to being a nondriver. Most (85%) intended to plan more in the future as well, indicating further potential openness to the topic. Drivers who planned were older, drove less frequently, limited their driving to nearby places, reported less difficulty believing they would become a nondriver, and expected to continue driving three years less than non-planners. These findings suggest that drivers' perceived nearness to driving cessation impacts planning for future transportation needs, and existing perceived benefits of planning may provide leverage to motivate action.

Development of Download System for Waveform Data Observed at Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System installed in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horikawa, H.; Takaesu, M.; Sueki, K.; Araki, E.; Sonoda, A.; Takahashi, N.; Tsuboi, S.

2015-12-01

The Nankai Trough in southwest Japan is one of most active subduction zone in the world. Great mega-thrust earthquakes repeatedly occurred every 100 to 150 years in this area, it's anticipated to occur in the not distant future. For the purpose of elucidation of the history of mega-splay fault activity, the physical properties of the geological strata and the internal structure of the accretionary prism, and monitoring of diastrophism in this area, we have a plan, Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiments (NanTroSEIZE), as a part of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP).We have a plan to install the borehole observation system in a few locations by the NanTroSEIZE. This system is called Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System, it consists of various sensors in the borehole such as a broadband seismometer, a tiltmeter, a strainmeter, geophones and accelerometer, thermometer array as well as pressure ports for pore-fluid pressure monitoring. The signal from sensors is transmitted to DONET (Dense Ocean-floor Network System for Earthquake and Tsunamis) in real-time. During IODP Exp. 332 in December 2010, the first Long-Term Borehole Monitoring System was installed into the C0002 borehole site located 80 km off the Kii Peninsula, 1938 m water depth in the Nankai Trough.We have developed a web application system for data download, Long-Term Borehole Monitoring Data Site　(*1). Based on a term and sensors which user selected on this site, user can download monitoring waveform data (e.g. broadband seismometer data, accelerometer data, strainmeter data, tiltmeter data) in near real-time. This system can make the arbitrary data which user selected a term and sensors, and download it simply. Downloadable continuous data is provided in seed format, which includes sensor information. In addition, before data download, user can check that data is available or not by data check function.In this presentation, we briefly introduce NanTroSEIZE and then show our web　application system. We also discuss our future plans for developments of monitoring data download system.*1 Long-Term Borehole Monitoring Data Site http://join-web.jamstec.go.jp/borehole/borehole_top_e.html

Remote science support during MARS2013: testing a map-based system of data processing and utilization for future long-duration planetary missions.

PubMed

Losiak, Anna; Gołębiowska, Izabela; Orgel, Csilla; Moser, Linda; MacArthur, Jane; Boyd, Andrea; Hettrich, Sebastian; Jones, Natalie; Groemer, Gernot

2014-05-01

MARS2013 was an integrated Mars analog field simulation in eastern Morocco performed by the Austrian Space Forum between February 1 and 28, 2013. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the system of data processing and utilization adopted by the Remote Science Support (RSS) team during this mission. The RSS team procedures were designed to optimize operational efficiency of the Flightplan, field crew, and RSS teams during a long-term analog mission with an introduced 10 min time delay in communication between "Mars" and Earth. The RSS workflow was centered on a single-file, easy-to-use, spatially referenced database that included all the basic information about the conditions at the site of study, as well as all previous and planned activities. This database was prepared in Google Earth software. The lessons learned from MARS2013 RSS team operations are as follows: (1) using a spatially referenced database is an efficient way of data processing and data utilization in a long-term analog mission with a large amount of data to be handled, (2) mission planning based on iterations can be efficiently supported by preparing suitability maps, (3) the process of designing cartographical products should start early in the planning stages of a mission and involve representatives of all teams, (4) all team members should be trained in usage of cartographical products, (5) technical problems (e.g., usage of a geological map while wearing a space suit) should be taken into account when planning a work flow for geological exploration, (6) a system that helps the astronauts to efficiently orient themselves in the field should be designed as part of future analog studies.

Planning for the recreational end use of a future LLR waste mound in Canada - Leaving an honourable legacy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleb, H.R.; Zelmer, R.L.

2007-07-01

The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Office was established in 1982 to carry out the federal government's responsibilities for low-level radioactive (LLR) waste management in Canada. In this capacity, the Office operates programs to characterize, delineate, decontaminate and consolidate historic LLR waste for interim and long-term storage. The Office is currently the proponent of the Port Hope Area Initiative; a program directed at the development and implementation of a safe, local long-term management solution for historic LLR waste in the Port Hope area. A legal agreement between the Government of Canada and the host community provides the framework for the implementationmore » of the Port Hope Project. Specifically, the agreement requires that the surface of the long-term LLR waste management facility be 'conducive to passive and active recreational uses such as soccer fields and baseball diamonds'. However, there are currently no examples of licensed LLR waste management facilities in Canada that permit recreational use. Such an end use presents challenges with respect to engineering and design, health and safety and landscape planning. This paper presents the cover system design, the environmental effects assessment and the landscape planning processes that were undertaken in support of the recreational end use of the Port Hope long-term LLR waste management facility. (authors)« less

Advances and Future Directions for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Research: Recommendations From the 2015 Strategic Planning Conference.

PubMed

Sahin, Mustafa; Henske, Elizabeth P; Manning, Brendan D; Ess, Kevin C; Bissler, John J; Klann, Eric; Kwiatkowski, David J; Roberds, Steven L; Silva, Alcino J; Hillaire-Clarke, Coryse St; Young, Lisa R; Zervas, Mark; Mamounas, Laura A

2016-07-01

On March 10 to March 12, 2015, the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and the Tuberous Sclerosis Alliance sponsored a workshop in Bethesda, Maryland, to assess progress and new opportunities for research in tuberous sclerosis complex with the goal of updating the 2003 Research Plan for Tuberous Sclerosis (http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/tscler_research_plan.htm). In addition to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and Tuberous Sclerosis Alliance, participants in the strategic planning effort and workshop included representatives from six other Institutes of the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Defense Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Research Program, and a broad cross-section of basic scientists and clinicians with expertise in tuberous sclerosis complex along with representatives from the pharmaceutical industry. Here we summarize the outcomes from the extensive premeeting deliberations and final workshop recommendations, including (1) progress in the field since publication of the initial 2003 research plan for tuberous sclerosis complex, (2) the key gaps, needs, and challenges that hinder progress in tuberous sclerosis complex research, and (3) a new set of research priorities along with specific recommendations for addressing the major challenges in each priority area. The new research plan is organized around both short-term and long-term goals with the expectation that progress toward specific objectives can be achieved within a five to ten year time frame. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Searching for signposts: Adaptive planning thresholds in long-term water supply projections for the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, B.; Herman, J. D.

2017-12-01

Long-term water supply planning is challenged by highly uncertain streamflow projections across climate models and emissions scenarios. Recent studies have devised infrastructure and policy responses that can withstand or adapt to an ensemble of scenarios, particularly those outside the envelope of historical variability. An important aspect of this process is whether the proposed thresholds for adaptation (i.e., observations that trigger a response) truly represent a trend toward future change. Here we propose an approach to connect observations of annual mean streamflow with long-term projections by filtering GCM-based streamflow ensembles. Visualizations are developed to investigate whether observed changes in mean annual streamflow can be linked to projected changes in end-of-century mean and variance relative to the full ensemble. A key focus is identifying thresholds that point to significant long-term changes in the distribution of streamflow (+/- 20% or greater) as early as possible. The analysis is performed on 87 sites in the Western United States, using streamflow ensembles through 2100 from a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Results focus on three primary questions: (1) how many years of observed data are needed to identify the most extreme scenarios, and by what year can they be identified? (2) are these features different between sites? and (3) using this analysis, do observed flows to date at each site point to significant long-term changes? This study addresses the challenge of severe uncertainty in long-term streamflow projections by identifying key thresholds that can be observed to support water supply planning.

Diversity and Educational Gains: A Plan for a Changing County and Its Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orfield, Gary; Frankenberg, Erica

2011-01-01

This report is a response to the Jefferson County School Board's request for an independent study of the best way to carry successfully into the future its long-term commitment to diversity in its schools. The Board's first principle is preservation of diversity in the schools. The authors' assignment from the board was two-fold: to build on the…

Einstein's Gift: Stellar Mass Black Holes in the LIGO Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadonati, Laura; Georgia Institute of Technology, LIGO-Virgo Collaboration

2017-01-01

The discovery of gravitational waves from the coalescence of black hole binary systems in LIGO has provided the first evidence for heavy stellar mass black holes. In this talk, I will review the observational evidence for black holes in LIGO data, its astrophysical implications and the plans for the near and long term future of ground based gravitational wave detection of black hole binary coalescences.

Humans and Autonomy: Implications of Shared Decision Making for Military Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

and machine learning transparency are identified as future research opportunities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS autonomy, human factors, intelligent agents...network as either the mission changes or an agent becomes disabled (DSB 2012). Fig. 2 Control structures for human agent teams. Robots without tools... learning (ML) algorithms monitor progress. However, operators have final executive authority; they are able to tweak the plan or choose an option

Microgrid Modeling and Simulation Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

will be used to guide DOD M&S strategy and planning, as well as develop a comprehensive microgrid M&S capability and prioritize future efforts...contingencies and sequencing (Short term investment) Peer-to-peer Rapid send- listen techniques M&S is needed to determine an approach for handling...tactical microgrid network with interconnected grids. ○ Rapid Send- Listen Techniques is a specific enabler necessary for communications in a

Exploration Blueprint: Data Book

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Bret G. (Editor)

2007-01-01

The material contained in this report was compiled to capture the work performed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Exploration study team in the late 2002 timeframe. The "Exploration Blueprint Data Book" documents the analyses and findings of the 90-day Agency-wide study conducted from September - November 2002. During the summer of 2002, the NASA Deputy Administrator requested that a study be performed with the following objectives: (1) Develop the rationale for exploration beyond low-Earth orbit (2) Develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps through humans to Mars (3) Develop design reference missions as a basis for the roadmaps 4) Make recommendations on what can be done now to effect this future This planning team, termed the Exploration Blueprint, performed architecture analyses to develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps beyond LEO through the human exploration of Mars. The previous NASA Exploration Team activities laid the foundation and framework for development of NASA's Integrated Space Plan. The reference missions resulting from the analysis performed by the Exploration Blueprint team formed the basis for requirement definition, systems development, technology roadmapping, and risk assessments for future human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. Emphasis was placed on developing recommendations on what could be done now to effect future exploration activities. The Exploration Blueprint team embraced the "Stepping Stone" approach to exploration where human and robotic activities are conducted through progressive expansion outward beyond low-Earth orbit. Results from this study produced a long-term strategy for exploration with near-term implementation plans, program recommendations, and technology investments. Specific results included the development of a common exploration crew vehicle concept, a unified space nuclear strategy, focused bioastronautics research objectives, and an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy. Recommendations from the Exploration Blueprint included the endorsement of the Nuclear Systems Initiative, augmentation of the bioastronautics research, a focused space transportation program including heavy-lift launch and a common exploration vehicle design for ISS and exploration missions, as well as an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy for Mars.

Exploration Blueprint: Data Book

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Bret G.

2007-02-01

The material contained in this report was compiled to capture the work performed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Exploration study team in the late 2002 timeframe. The "Exploration Blueprint Data Book" documents the analyses and findings of the 90-day Agency-wide study conducted from September - November 2002. During the summer of 2002, the NASA Deputy Administrator requested that a study be performed with the following objectives: (1) Develop the rationale for exploration beyond low-Earth orbit (2) Develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps through humans to Mars (3) Develop design reference missions as a basis for the roadmaps 4) Make recommendations on what can be done now to effect this future This planning team, termed the Exploration Blueprint, performed architecture analyses to develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps beyond LEO through the human exploration of Mars. The previous NASA Exploration Team activities laid the foundation and framework for development of NASA's Integrated Space Plan. The reference missions resulting from the analysis performed by the Exploration Blueprint team formed the basis for requirement definition, systems development, technology roadmapping, and risk assessments for future human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. Emphasis was placed on developing recommendations on what could be done now to effect future exploration activities. The Exploration Blueprint team embraced the "Stepping Stone" approach to exploration where human and robotic activities are conducted through progressive expansion outward beyond low-Earth orbit. Results from this study produced a long-term strategy for exploration with near-term implementation plans, program recommendations, and technology investments. Specific results included the development of a common exploration crew vehicle concept, a unified space nuclear strategy, focused bioastronautics research objectives, and an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy. Recommendations from the Exploration Blueprint included the endorsement of the Nuclear Systems Initiative, augmentation of the bioastronautics research, a focused space transportation program including heavy-lift launch and a common exploration vehicle design for ISS and exploration missions, as well as an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy for Mars.

Strategic Planning for the Air Force. Leveraging Business Planning Insights to Create Future Value

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

Strategic Planning for the Air Force Leveraging Business Planning Insights to Create Future Value DEBORAH L. WESTPHAL, RICHARD SZAFRANSKI...SUBTITLE Strategic Planning for the Air Force. Leveraging Business Planning Insights to Create Future Value 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c...can be so, unless leaders and planners are willing to think in the boundary between order and chaos. Long-Range Planning, Strategic Thinking, or

Capacity planning for the future.

PubMed

Johnson, A M

1997-01-01

Managed care is changing the way health care organizations plan for their futures. Traditional planning takes into account history and geography, while the new approach factors in the impact of managed care of future utilization. The new approach also incorporates strategic planning into an organization's broader strategic plan and budgeting process. The result is a more comprehensive planning method that is critical for health care organization's success.

A vision of long-term care. To care for tomorrow's elderly, hospitals must plan now, not react later.

PubMed

Kodner, D L

1989-12-01

In the next two decades, rapid, fundamental changes will take place in the way we finance, organize, and provide long-term care services. Because the elderly make up such a large portion of the patient population, America's hospitals should be concerned--and involved. There are six keys to the future of long-term care: a sharp increase in elderly population, a new generation of elderly, restrained government role, intergenerational strains, growing corporate concern, and the rise of "gerotechnology." These trends and countertrends will result in a new look in the long-term care landscape. By the year 2010, changes will include a true public-private financing system, provider reimbursement on the basis of capitation and prospective payment, coordinated access to services, dominant alternative delivery systems, a different breed of nursing homes, fewer staffing problems, patient-centered care, a new importance in housing, and an emphasis on prevention. For hospitals, this future vision of long-term care means that significant opportunities will open up to meet the needs of the elderly-at-risk and to achieve a competitive position in the burgeoning elderly care industry.

Temporal discounting in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Pulcu, E; Trotter, P D; Thomas, E J; McFarquhar, M; Juhasz, G; Sahakian, B J; Deakin, J F W; Zahn, R; Anderson, I M; Elliott, R

2014-07-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with abnormalities in financial reward processing. Previous research suggests that patients with MDD show reduced sensitivity to frequency of financial rewards. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence from studies investigating the evaluation of financial rewards over time, an important aspect of reward processing that influences the way people plan long-term investments. Beck's cognitive model posits that patients with MDD hold a negative view of the future that may influence the amount of resources patients are willing to invest into their future selves. We administered a delay discounting task to 82 participants: 29 healthy controls, 29 unmedicated participants with fully remitted MDD (rMDD) and 24 participants with current MDD (11 on medication). Patients with current MDD, relative to remitted patients and healthy subjects, discounted large-sized future rewards at a significantly higher rate and were insensitive to changes in reward size from medium to large. There was a main effect of clinical group on discounting rates for large-sized rewards, and discounting rates for large-sized rewards correlated with severity of depressive symptoms, particularly hopelessness. Higher discounting of delayed rewards in MDD seems to be state dependent and may be a reflection of depressive symptoms, specifically hopelessness. Discounting distant rewards at a higher rate means that patients are more likely to choose immediate financial options. Such impairments related to long-term investment planning may be important for understanding value-based decision making in MDD, and contribute to ongoing functional impairment.

The connection between long-term and short-term risk management strategies for flood and landslide hazards: examples from land-use planning and emergency management in four European case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenger-Berninghoff, K.; Cortes, V. J.; Sprague, T.; Aye, Z. C.; Greiving, S.; Głowacki, W.; Sterlacchini, S.

2014-12-01

Adaptation to complex and unforeseen events requires enhancing the links between planning and preparedness phases to reduce future risks in the most efficient way. In this context, the legal-administrative and cultural context has to be taken into account. This is why four case study areas of the CHANGES1 project (Nehoiu Valley in Romania, Ubaye Valley in France, Val Canale in Italy, and Wieprzówka catchment in Poland) serve as examples to highlight currently implemented risk management strategies for land-use planning and emergency preparedness. The focus is particularly on flood and landslide hazards. The strategies described in this paper were identified by means of exploratory and informal interviews in each study site. Results reveal that a dearth or, in very few cases, a weak link exists between spatial planners and emergency managers. Management strategies could benefit from formally intensifying coordination and cooperation between emergency services and spatial planning authorities. Moreover, limited financial funds urge for a more efficient use of resources and better coordination towards long-term activities. The research indicates potential benefits to establishing or, in some cases, strengthening this link through contextual changes, e.g., in organizational or administrative structures, that facilitate proper interaction between risk management and spatial planning. It also provides suggestions for further development in the form of information and decision support systems as a key connection point. 1 Marie Curie ITN CHANGES - Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists

Curating NASA's Astromaterials Collections: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeigler, Ryan

2015-01-01

Planning for the curation of samples from future sample return missions must begin during the initial planning stages of a mission. Waiting until the samples have been returned to Earth, or even when you begin to physically build the spacecraft is too late. A lack of proper planning could lead to irreversible contamination of the samples, which in turn would compromise the scientific integrity of the mission. For example, even though the Apollo missions first returned samples in 1969, planning for the curation facility began in the early 1960s, and construction of the Lunar Receiving Laboratory was completed in 1967. In addition to designing the receiving facility and laboratory that the samples will be characterized and stored in, there are many aspects of contamination that must be addressed during the planning and building of the spacecraft: planetary protection (both outbound and inbound); cataloging, documenting, and preserving the materials used to build spacecraft (also known as coupons); near real-time monitoring of the environment in which the spacecraft is being built using witness plates for critical aspects of contamination (known as contamination control); and long term monitoring and preservation of the environment in which the spacecraft is being built for most aspects of potential contamination through the use of witness plates (known as contamination knowledge). The OSIRIS REx asteroid sample return mission, currently being built, is dealing with all of these aspects of contamination in order to ensure they return the best preserved sample possible. Coupons and witness plates from OSIRIS REx are currently being studied and stored (for future studies) at the Johnson Space Center. Similarly, planning for the clean room facility at Johnson Space Center to house the OSIRIS-REx samples is well advanced, and construction of the facility should begin in early 2017 (despite a nominal 2023 return date for OSIRIS-REx samples). Similar development is being done, in concert with JAXA, for the return of Hayabusa 2 samples (nominally in 2020). We are also actively developing advanced techniques like cold curation and organically clean curation in anticipation of future sample return missions such as comet nucleus sample return and Mars sample return.

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on High Priority Topics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations weremore » developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 13 topics was developed for further analysis; this paper discusses the first five.« less

Strategic issues in performance appraisal: theory and practice.

PubMed

Fombrun, C J; Laud, R L

1983-01-01

Performance appraisal systems have tremendous strategic potential for governing employee behavior and thus corporate direction through their links to selection, training and career planning, and reward systems. Authors Charles J. Fombrun, assistant professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and Robert P. Laud, senior vice-president of Drake Beam Morin, Inc., surveyed appraisal systems of Fortune 1300 corporations to find out how well companies are realizing this potential. Among their conclusions: (1) In most organizations, the typical performance appraisal system is focused on short-term goals. Strengthening the linkage between the appraisal system and the long-term implications of strategic planning could improve organizational effectiveness in the future. (2) The performance appraisal system's most prevalent use is as a feedback mechanism rather than as a management tool. Thus, the authors conclude, the role of the performance appraisal system as a strategic organizational tool is largely unappreciated by U.S. organizations.

Supporting self-care in general practice

PubMed Central

Greaves, Colin J; Campbell, John L

2007-01-01

There is both a clear need and a political will to improve self-care in long-term conditions: demand for self-care support interventions is rising. This article discusses current approaches to supporting self-care in primary care, evidence in favour of self-care support, and issues for GPs to consider in planning self-care support systems. In planning care pathways, important choices need to be made about whether to use individual or group-based approaches and what intensity of intervention is appropriate to match patient needs. Investment may also be needed in both health professional competences and practice systems to optimise their ability to support patient self-care. Self-care support is a key approach for the future of UK health care. Practices that are well trained and well organised to support self-care will respond better to the complex challenges of achieving improvements in the outcomes of long-term conditions. PMID:17925140

Role of theory in space science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The goal of theory is to understand how the fundamental laws of physics laws of physics and chemistry give rise to the features of the universe. It is recommended that NASA establish independent theoretical research programs in planetary sciences and in astrophysics similar to the solar-system plasma-physics theory program, which is characterized by stable, long-term support for theorists in university departments, NASA centers, and other organizations engaged in research in topics relevant to present and future space-derived data. It is recommended that NASA keep these programs under review to full benefit from the resulting research and to assure opportunities for inflow of new ideas and investigators. Also, provisions should be made by NASA for the computing needs of the theorists in the programs. Finally, it is recommended that NASA involve knowledgeable theorists in mission planning activities at all levels, from the formulation of long-term scientific strategies through the planning and operation of specific missions.

An Intelligent Crop Planning Tool for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, Laura O.; Leon, Jorge

1996-01-01

This paper describes a crop planning tool developed for the Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) project which is in the research phases at various NASA facilities. The Crop Planning Tool was developed to assist in the understanding of the long term applications of a CELSS environment. The tool consists of a crop schedule generator as well as a crop schedule simulator. The importance of crop planning tools such as the one developed is discussed. The simulator is outlined in detail while the schedule generator is touched upon briefly. The simulator consists of data inputs, plant and human models, and various other CELSS activity models such as food consumption and waste regeneration. The program inputs such as crew data and crop states are discussed. References are included for all nominal parameters used. Activities including harvesting, planting, plant respiration, and human respiration are discussed using mathematical models. Plans provided to the simulator by the plan generator are evaluated for their 'fitness' to the CELSS environment with an objective function based upon daily reservoir levels. Sample runs of the Crop Planning Tool and future needs for the tool are detailed.

Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices.

PubMed

Lexa, Frank James; Chan, Stephen

2010-05-01

Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using scenario analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat. Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Continual improvement plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

NASA's approach to continual improvement (CI) is a systems-oriented, agency-wide approach that builds on the past accomplishments of NASA Headquarters and its field installations and helps achieve NASA's vision, mission, and values. The NASA of the future will fully use the principles of continual improvement in every aspect of its operations. This NASA CI plan defines a systematic approach and a model for continual improvement throughout NASA, stressing systems integration and optimization. It demonstrates NASA's constancy of purpose for improvement - a consistent vision of NASA as a worldwide leader in top-quality science, technology, and management practices. The CI plan provides the rationale, structures, methods, and steps, and it defines NASA's short term (1-year) objectives for improvement. The CI plan presents the deployment strategies necessary for cascading the goals and objectives throughout the agency. It also provides guidance on implementing continual improvement with participation from top leadership and all levels of employees.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Mystic mountain: an educational alternative futures wildland planning game

Treesearch

Edward C. Thor; James L. Creighton

1978-01-01

Alternative futures planning is a generic name for a number of planning approaches which recognize that the future is uncertain. There is not one future, preordained and universally known, but rather a variety of possible futures, any one of which may occur. Mystic Mountain is an educational game which teaches wildland planners and managers important concepts in...

Longer term consequences of the Short Take-Off and Landing (STOL) aircraft system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laporte, T. R.

1972-01-01

An assessment of the STOL aircraft and the various means of employing it are discussed in the light of a research study to evaluate the efficacy of such analyses. It was determined that current approaches to assessment are generally inadequate for investigating the full social consequences of implementing a new technology. It is stated that a meaningful methodology of technology assessment must reflect mechanisms underlying the relationship of technology to social change. Interrelated methods which are discussed are: (1) gaming and simulation as heurisitic approaches in analysis and inquiry, (2) long range planning and questions of the future, (3) planning theory as a background for critical analysis of policy planning, and (4) social theory, with particular emphasis on social change and systems theories.

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Offshore Sand Resource Needs, Data Availability and Revaluation, and Beach Nourishment Projects in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conery, I.; Walsh, J. P.

2016-12-01

Storms and sea-level rise continue to impact the dynamic coastlines of North Carolina. Since the coastal region is economically critical to the state and yields numerous ecosystem services, many towns have planned beach nourishment projects. However, offshore sands compatible for nourishment are limited, and project costs fluctuate with borrow source proximity to the shoreline. Hurricane Sandy (2012) caused high water levels and waves resulting in localized overwash and erosion in the northeastern part of NC. In response, to effectively meet the rising nourishment demands for recovery after future storm events and for long-term resiliency, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) recognized the need to compile and consolidate all geophysical and geologic information in federal waters (3-8 nm) along the East Coast states. A GIS database was created for NC using bathymetric, seismic reflection, sediment and other relevant data from federal, state and private entities. Information will be accessible to the public, coastal planners and managers to allow for informed decision-making and cost-effective project planning. Priority regions for seismic and core collection were determined based on data gaps and needs across the state. In addition, potential sand resource thickness and volume in northeastern NC were revaluated using comparisons of several overlapping datasets. Shoreline volume losses were calculated using long-term erosion rates and compared to historic and future nourishment projects. Finally, tourism-based revenue by town was evaluated and related to short and long-term nourishment costs.

Mars scientific investigations as a precursor for human exploration.

PubMed

Ahlf, P; Cantwell, E; Ostrach, L; Pline, A

2000-01-01

In the past two years, NASA has begun to develop and implement plans for investigations on robotic Mars missions which are focused toward returning data critical for planning human missions to Mars. The Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander missions will mark the first time that experiments dedicated to preparation for human exploration will be carried out. Investigations on these missions and future missions range from characterization of the physical and chemical environment of Mars, to predicting the response of biology to the Mars environment. Planning for such missions must take into account existing data from previous Mars missions which were not necessarily focused on human exploration preparation. At the same time, plans for near term missions by the international community must be considered to avoid duplication of effort. This paper reviews data requirements for human exploration and applicability of existing data. It will also describe current plans for investigations and place them within the context of related international activities. c 2000 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ready or not, disasters happen.

PubMed

Orr, Martha L

2002-01-01

The New York State Nurses Association was--as was the entire country--plunged into disaster response mode by 9:30 am on the morning of Tuesday, September 11, 2001. Although the association had engaged in limited disaster planning prior to this event, that planning was in terms of an internal disaster such as a fire in our headquarters building. There was no plan for responding to a community catastrophe of the magnitude being experienced. The association faced unique challenges--including the fact that our New York City offices are located near ground zero--but was fortunate in having expert resource persons on staff and available to organize a response. Since September, the association has applied the lessons learned from this experience and developed a comprehensive disaster plan for the future. The purpose of this article is to share those lessons learned with the community of nursing associations in the hope that others can use the information to build effective disaster plans of their own.

Goal clarity and financial planning activities as determinants of retirement savings contributions.

PubMed

Stawski, Robert S; Hershey, Douglas A; Jacobs-Lawson, Joy M

2007-01-01

Retirement counselors, financial service professionals, and retirement intervention specialists routinely emphasize the importance of developing clear goals for the future; however, few empirical studies have focused on the benefits of retirement goal setting. In the present study, the extent to which goal clarity and financial planning activities predict retirement savings practices was examined among 100 working adults. Path analysis techniques were used to test two competing models, both of which were designed to predict savings contributions. Findings provide support for the model in which retirement goal clarity is a significant predictor of planning practices, and planning, in turn, predicts savings tendencies. Two demographic variables-income and age-were also revealed to be important elements of the model, with income accounting for roughly half of the explained variance in savings contributions. The results of this study have implications for the development of age-based models of planning, as well as implications for retirement counselors and financial planners who advise workers on long-term saving strategies.

Mars scientific investigations as a precursor for human exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahlf, P.; Cantwell, E.; Ostrach, L.; Pline, A.

2000-01-01

In the past two years, NASA has begun to develop and implement plans for investigations on robotic Mars missions which are focused toward returning data critical for planning human missions to Mars. The Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander missions will mark the first time that experiments dedicated to preparation for human exploration will be carried out. Investigations on these missions and future missions range from characterization of the physical and chemical environment of Mars, to predicting the response of biology to the Mars environment. Planning for such missions must take into account existing data from previous Mars missions which were not necessarily focused on human exploration preparation. At the same time, plans for near term missions by the international community must be considered to avoid duplication of effort. This paper reviews data requirements for human exploration and applicability of existing data. It will also describe current plans for investigations and place them within the context of related international activities. c 2000 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2007 International Brain Mapping and Intraoperative Surgical Planning Society’s (IBMISPS) Annual World Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

and Stroke Two Long Term Consequences of Penetrating Head Injuries : Exacerbated Decline and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Key Note speaker: Michael L...an intuitively obvious first principle that if modern medicine hopes to repair adult brains (damaged by war injuries , automobile accidents, stroke ...Imaging Animal Models of Brain Disease Background and Animal Model Quantization of Structure Cerebral Blood Flow Mini- Strokes Cancer Future

Five-Year Research and Development Plan, Fiscal Years 2008-2013

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

protect our interior 1.l.1 Deploy a mix of infrastructure, technology, and personnel on the Southwest border to ensure all illegal activity along...requirements into a systems model. FY 2009: • Review the System of Systems model and ensure it correctly addresses SBI requirements. FY 2010... on a ship). This security architecture provides the framework within which DHS will incorporate their near-term CSD and future container security

Induced Insecurity: Understanding the Potential Pitfalls in Developing Theater Campaign Plans

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-11

effective partnerships that meet outlined in higher- level strategic guidance . 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. UMITATION OF... effective partnerships that meet the desired end states outlined in higher-level strategic guidance. DEDICATION To the millions of men and women who...and draw conclusions, it does not always prove to be an effective means of predicting the outcome of current or future events. In addition, the

National Plan for Aeronautics Research and Development and Related Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

change—is not well understood. FUNDAMENTAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME Concerns about aviation’s environmental impacts and...relationships between long-term impacts like CO2 and shorter lived impacts like NOx emissions, contrails and cirrus clouds . ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT R&D GOALS...abling future generations of aircraft (N+1, N+2, and N+3) that permit better management of the energy resources and environmental impact ; and (2

Deep carbon reductions in California require electrification and integration across economic sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Max; Nelson, James H.; Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Ting, Michael; Yang, Christopher; Jones, Chris; McMahon, James E.; Kammen, Daniel M.

2013-03-01

Meeting a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels in the year 2050 requires detailed long-term planning due to complexity, inertia, and path dependency in the energy system. A detailed investigation of supply and demand alternatives is conducted to assess requirements for future California energy systems that can meet the 2050 GHG target. Two components are developed here that build novel analytic capacity and extend previous studies: (1) detailed bottom-up projections of energy demand across the building, industry and transportation sectors; and (2) a high-resolution variable renewable resource capacity planning model (SWITCH) that minimizes the cost of electricity while meeting GHG policy goals in the 2050 timeframe. Multiple pathways exist to a low-GHG future, all involving increased efficiency, electrification, and a dramatic shift from fossil fuels to low-GHG energy. The electricity system is found to have a diverse, cost-effective set of options that meet aggressive GHG reduction targets. This conclusion holds even with increased demand from transportation and heating, but the optimal levels of wind and solar deployment depend on the temporal characteristics of the resulting load profile. Long-term policy support is found to be a key missing element for the successful attainment of the 2050 GHG target in California.

Analyzing Uncertainty and Risk in the Management of Water Resources in the State Of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Hauffpauir, R.; Mishra, S.; Lavenue, M.

2010-12-01

The State of Texas updates its state water plan every five years to determine the water demand required to meet its growing population. The plan compiles forecasts of water deficits from state-wide regional water planning groups as well as the water supply strategies to address these deficits. To date, the plan has adopted a deterministic framework, where reference values (e.g., best estimates, worst-case scenario) are used for key factors such as population growth, demand for water, severity of drought, water availability, etc. These key factors can, however, be affected by multiple sources of uncertainties such as - the impact of climate on surface water and groundwater availability, uncertainty in population projections, changes in sectoral composition of the economy, variability in water usage, feasibility of the permitting process, cost of implementation, etc. The objective of this study was to develop a generalized and scalable methodology for addressing uncertainty and risk in water resources management both at the regional and the local water planning level. The study proposes a framework defining the elements of an end-to-end system model that captures the key components of demand, supply and planning modules along with their associated uncertainties. The framework preserves the fundamental elements of the well-established planning process in the State of Texas, promoting an incremental and stakeholder-driven approach to adding different levels of uncertainty (and risk) into the decision-making environment. The uncertainty in the water planning process is broken down into two primary categories: demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. Uncertainty in Demand is related to the uncertainty in population projections and the per-capita usage rates. Uncertainty in Supply, in turn, is dominated by the uncertainty in future climate conditions. Climate is represented in terms of time series of precipitation, temperature and/or surface evaporation flux for some future time period of interest, which can be obtained as outputs of global climate models (GCMs). These are then linked with hydrologic and water-availability models (WAMs) to estimate water availability for the worst drought conditions under each future climate scenario. Combining the demand scenarios with the water availability scenarios yields multiple scenarios for water shortage (or surplus). Given multiple shortage/surplus scenarios, various water management strategies can be assessed to evaluate the reliability of meeting projected deficits. These reliabilities are then used within a multi-criteria decision-framework to assess trade-offs between various water management objectives, thus helping to make more robust decisions while planning for the water needs of the future.

A hospital response to a soccer stadium stampede in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Madzimbamuto, F

2003-01-01

Method: A literature review was done to establish international standards of best practice in major medical incident response. The hospital disaster plan (major medical incident plan) was reviewed and used as local standard. Written submissions and unstructured interviews technique were used to collect information from staff present on the day and involved in the care of the stampede victims and from staff specified in the hospital disaster plan. This was presented as a report to the Hospital Clinical Audit and Quality Assurance Committee (CAQAC), with recommendations. Results: The hospital's response to the disaster was suboptimal. The initial recommendations were accepted. Implementation is ongoing while discussion is drawing in other people and agencies. An integrated prehospital care system is required. The casualty department needs to develop into a modern accident and emergency department. Individual departments need to develop their own disaster plans that link into the hospital plan. A system for future audits of the hospital's performance after a disaster need to be put in place. Implementation of these recommendations is changing disaster preparedness in and out of the hospital. Conclusions: The exercise was very useful in raising awareness and the value of audit and specific issues were defined for improvement. Long term and short term goals were set. Despite the shortage of resources, change was felt to be necessary and possible. PMID:14623853

Staffing the ISS Control Centers: Lessons Learned from Long-Duration Human Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Carrie D.; Horvath, Timothy J.; Davis, Sally P.

2006-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) has been in operation with a permanent human presence in space for over five years, and plans for continued operations stretch ten years into the future. Ground control and support operations are, likewise, a 15-year enterprise. This long-term, 24-hour per day, 7 day per week support has presented numerous challenges in the areas of ground crew training, initial and continued certification, and console staffing. The Mission Control Center in Houston, Texas and the Payload Operations Center in Huntsville, Alabama have both tackled these challenges, with similar, yet distinct, approaches. This paper describes the evolution of the staffing and training policies of both control centers in a chronological progression. The relative merits and shortcomings of the various policies employed are discussed and a summary of "lessons learned" is presented. Finally, recommendations are made as best practices for future long-term space missions.

Understanding the cryptic nature of Lassa fever in West Africa.

PubMed

Gibb, Rory; Moses, Lina M; Redding, David W; Jones, Kate E

2017-09-01

Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognized by global health institutions as an important rodent-borne disease with severe impacts on some of West Africa's poorest communities. However, our knowledge of LF ecology, epidemiology and distribution is limited, which presents barriers to both short-term disease forecasting and prediction of long-term impacts of environmental change on Lassa virus (LASV) zoonotic transmission dynamics. Here, we synthesize current knowledge to show that extrapolations from past research have produced an incomplete picture of the incidence and distribution of LF, with negative consequences for policy planning, medical treatment and management interventions. Although the recent increase in LF case reports is likely due to improved surveillance, recent studies suggest that future socio-ecological changes in West Africa may drive increases in LF burden. Future research should focus on the geographical distribution and disease burden of LF, in order to improve its integration into public policy and disease control strategies.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene in Haiti: Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Gelting, Richard; Bliss, Katherine; Patrick, Molly; Lockhart, Gabriella; Handzel, Thomas

2013-01-01

Haiti has the lowest rates of access to improved water and sanitation infrastructure in the western hemisphere. This situation was likely exacerbated by the earthquake in 2010 and also contributed to the rapid spread of the cholera epidemic that started later that same year. This report examines the history of the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) sector in Haiti, considering some factors that have influenced WASH conditions in the country. We then discuss the situation sine the earthquake and subsequent cholera epidemic, and the responses to those events. Finally, drawing on Haiti's National Plan of Action for the Elimination of Cholera in Haiti 2013–2022, we suggest some actions that could help bring about long-term WASH improvements for the future. Because the current WASH situation has evolved over decades of limited attention and resources, it will take a long-term, sustained effort to improve the situation. PMID:24106193

Marshall Space Flight Center CFD overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schutzenhofer, Luke A.

1989-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) activities at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been focused on hardware specific and research applications with strong emphasis upon benchmark validation. The purpose here is to provide insight into the MSFC CFD related goals, objectives, current hardware related CFD activities, propulsion CFD research efforts and validation program, future near-term CFD hardware related programs, and CFD expectations. The current hardware programs where CFD has been successfully applied are the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), Alternate Turbopump Development (ATD), and Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE). For the future near-term CFD hardware related activities, plans are being developed that address the implementation of CFD into the early design stages of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME), Space Transportation Booster Engine (STBE), and the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the Space Station. Finally, CFD expectations in the design environment will be delineated.

MS&T'13 Symposium Preview: Metal and Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nikhil; Paramsothy, Muralidharan

2013-08-01

The Metal and Polymer Matrix Composites symposium at Materials Science & Technology 2013 (MS&T'13) conference is planned to provide a platform to researchers working on various aspects of composite materials and capture the state of the art in this area. The dialogue among leading researchers is expected to provide insight into the future of this field and identify the future directions in terms of research, development, and applications of composite materials. In the 2 day program, the symposium includes 34 presentations, including 10 invited presentations. The contributions have come from 16 different countries including USA, Mexico, Switzerland, India, Egypt, and Singapore.

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

The Fram Strait integrated ocean observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahrbach, E.; Beszczynska-Möller, A.; Rettig, S.; Rohardt, G.; Sagen, H.; Sandven, S.; Hansen, E.

2012-04-01

A long-term oceanographic moored array has been operated since 1997 to measure the ocean water column properties and oceanic advective fluxes through Fram Strait. While the mooring line along 78°50'N is devoted to monitoring variability of the physical environment, the AWI Hausgarten observatory, located north of it, focuses on ecosystem properties and benthic biology. Under the EU DAMOCLES and ACOBAR projects, the oceanographic observatory has been extended towards the innovative integrated observing system, combining the deep ocean moorings, multipurpose acoustic system and a network of gliders. The main aim of this system is long-term environmental monitoring in Fram Strait, combining satellite data, acoustic tomography, oceanographic measurements at moorings and glider sections with high-resolution ice-ocean circulation models through data assimilation. In future perspective, a cable connection between the Hausgarten observatory and a land base on Svalbard is planned as the implementation of the ESONET Arctic node. To take advantage of the planned cabled node, different technologies for the underwater data transmission were reviewed and partially tested under the ESONET DM AOEM. The main focus was to design and evaluate available technical solutions for collecting data from different components of the Fram Strait ocean observing system, and an integration of available data streams for the optimal delivery to the future cabled node. The main components of the Fram Strait integrated observing system will be presented and the current status of available technologies for underwater data transfer will be reviewed. On the long term, an initiative of Helmholtz observatories foresees the interdisciplinary Earth-Observing-System FRAM which combines observatories such as the long term deep-sea ecological observatory HAUSGARTEN, the oceanographic Fram Strait integrated observing system and the Svalbard coastal stations maintained by the Norwegian ARCTOS network. A vision of this modular underwater observatory network in Fram Strait will be presented.

Financial effect of instituting Deficit Reduction Act documentation requirements in family planning clinics in Oregon.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Maria Isabel; Angus, Lisa; Elman, Emily; Darney, Philip D; Caughey, Aaron B

2011-06-01

The study was conducted to estimate the long-term costs for implementing citizenship documentation requirements in a Medicaid expansion program for family planning services in Oregon. A decision-analytic model was developed using two perspectives: the state and society. Our primary outcome was future reproductive health care costs due to pregnancy in the next 5 years. A Markov structure was utilized to capture multiple future pregnancies. Model inputs were retrieved from the existing literature and local hospital and Medicaid data related to reimbursements. One-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to simultaneously incorporate uncertainty from all of the model inputs. Screening for citizenship results in a loss of $3119 over 5 years ($39,382 vs. $42,501) for the state and $4209 for society ($63,391 compared to $59,182) for adult women. Among adolescents, requiring proof of identity and citizenship results in a loss of $3123 for the state ($39,378 versus $42,501) and $4214 for society ($63,391 instead of $59,177). Screening for citizenship status in publicly funded family planning clinics leads to financial losses for the state and society. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Your Library's Future: When Leaders Leave, Succession Planning Can Smooth the Transitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singer, Paula; Goodrich, Jeanne; Goldberg, Linda

2004-01-01

The future is around the corner. Succession planning will only happen when the right ingredients are there at the start. This article describes thirteen succession planning ingredients that will aid in the future succession of library systems.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Estimating the Effects of Astronaut Career Ionizing Radiation Dose Limits on Manned Interplanetary Flight Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koontz, Steven L.; Rojdev, Kristina; Valle, Gerard D.; Zipay, John J.; Atwell, William S.

2013-01-01

The Hybrid Inflatable DSH combined with electric propulsion and high power solar-electric power systems offer a near TRL-now solution to the space radiation crew dose problem that is an inevitable aspect of long term manned interplanetary flight. Spreading program development and launch costs over several years can lead to a spending plan that fits with NASA's current and future budgetary limitations, enabling early manned interplanetary operations with space radiation dose control, in the near future while biomedical research, nuclear electric propulsion and active shielding research and development proceed in parallel. Furthermore, future work should encompass laboratory validation of HZETRN calculations, as previous laboratory investigations have not considered large shielding thicknesses and the calculations presented at these thicknesses are currently performed via extrapolation.

Real-Time Interactive Facilities Associated With A 3-D Medical Workstation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldwasser, S. M.; Reynolds, R. A.; Talton, D.; Walsh, E.

1986-06-01

Biomedical workstations of the future will incorporate three-dimensional interactive capabilities which provide real-time response to most common operator requests. Such systems will find application in many areas of medicine including clinical diagnosis, surgical and radiation therapy planning, biomedical research based on functional imaging, and medical education. This paper considers the requirements of these future systems in terms of image quality, performance, and the interactive environment, and examines the relationship of workstation capabilities to specific medical applications. We describe a prototype physician's workstation that we have designed and built to meet many of these requirements (using conventional graphics technology in conjunction with a custom real-time 3-D processor), and give an account of the remaining issues and challenges that future designers of such systems will have to address.

Self-regulation of goal setting: turning free fantasies about the future into binding goals.

PubMed

Oettingen, G; Pak, H; Schnetter, K

2001-05-01

Fantasy realization theory states that when people contrast their fantasies about a desired future with reflections on present reality, a necessity to act is induced that leads to the activation and use of relevant expectations. Strong goal commitment arises in light of favorable expectations, and weak goal commitment arises in light of unfavorable expectations. To the contrary, when people only fantasize about a desired future or only reflect on present reality, expectancy-independent moderate goal commitment emerges. Four experiments pertaining to various life domains supported these hypotheses. Strength of goal commitment was assessed in cognitive (e.g., making plans), affective (e.g., felt attachment), and behavioral terms (e.g., effort expenditure, quality of performance). Implications for theories on goal setting and goal striving are discussed.

An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

[The effectiveness of continuing care models in patients with chronic diseases: a systematic review].

PubMed

Chen, Hsiao-Mei; Han, Tung-Chen; Chen, Ching-Min

2014-04-01

Population aging has caused significant rises in the prevalence of chronic diseases and the utilization of healthcare services in Taiwan. The current healthcare delivery system is fragmented. Integrating medical services may increase the quality of healthcare, enhance patient and patient family satisfaction with healthcare services, and better contain healthcare costs. This article introduces two continuing care models: discharge planning and case management. Further, the effectiveness and essential components of these two models are analyzed using a systematic review method. Articles included in this systematic review were all original articles on discharge-planning or case-management interventions published between February 1999 and March 2013 in any of 6 electronic databases (Medline, PubMed, Cinahl Plus with full Text, ProQuest, Cochrane Library, CEPS and Center for Chinese Studies electronic databases). Of the 70 articles retrieved, only 7 were randomized controlled trial studies. Three types of continuity-of-care models were identified: discharge planning, case management, and a hybrid of these two. All three models used logical and systematic processes to conduct assessment, planning, implementation, coordination, follow-up, and evaluation activities. Both the discharge planning model and the case management model were positively associated with improved self-care knowledge, reduced length of stay, decreased medical costs, and better quality of life. This study cross-referenced all reviewed articles in terms of target clients, content, intervention schedules, measurements, and outcome indicators. Study results may be referenced in future implementations of continuity-care models and may provide a reference for future research.

Healthy, wealthy, and wise: retirement planning predicts employee health improvements.

PubMed

Gubler, Timothy; Pierce, Lamar

2014-09-01

Are poor physical and financial health driven by the same underlying psychological factors? We found that the decision to contribute to a 401(k) retirement plan predicted whether an individual acted to correct poor physical-health indicators revealed during an employer-sponsored health examination. Using this examination as a quasi-exogenous shock to employees' personal-health knowledge, we examined which employees were more likely to improve their health, controlling for differences in initial health, demographics, job type, and income. We found that existing retirement-contribution patterns and future health improvements were highly correlated. Employees who saved for the future by contributing to a 401(k) showed improvements in their abnormal blood-test results and health behaviors approximately 27% more often than noncontributors did. These findings are consistent with an underlying individual time-discounting trait that is both difficult to change and domain interdependent, and that predicts long-term individual behaviors in multiple dimensions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Latest experiences and future plans on NSLS-II insertion devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanabe, T.; Hidaka, Y.; Kitegi, C.

National Synchrotron Light Source-II (NSLS-II) is the latest storage ring of 3 GeV energy at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The horizontal emittance of the electron beam with the currently installed six damping wigglers is 0.9 nm.rad, which could be further reduced to 0.5 nm.rad with more insertion devices (IDs). With only one RF cavity the beam current is restricted to 200 mA. Five hundred mA operation is envisaged for next year with an addition of the second cavity. Six (plus two branches) beamlines have been commissioned in the initial phase of the project. In July 2015, three NIH fundedmore » beamlines called “Advanced Beamlines for Biological Investigations with X-rays” (ABBIX) will be added for operation. This paper describes the experiences of ID development, installation, and commissioning for the NSLS-II project as well as our future plans to improve the performance of the facility in terms of source development.« less

An approach to evaluate the intra-urban thermal variability in summer using an urban indicator.

PubMed

Massetti, Luciano; Petralli, Martina; Brandani, Giada; Orlandini, Simone

2014-09-01

Urban planners and managers need tools to evaluate the performance of the present state and future development of cities in terms of comfort and quality of life. In this paper, an approach to analyse the intra-urban summer thermal variability, using an urban planning indicator, is presented. The proportion of buildings and concrete surfaces in a specific buffer area are calculated. Besides, the relationship between urban and temperature indicators is investigated and used to produce thermal maps of the city. This approach is applied to the analysis of intra-urban variability in Florence (Italy), of two thermal indices (heat index and cooling degree days) used to evaluate impacts on thermal comfort and energy consumption for indoor cooling. Our results suggest that urban planning indicators can describe intra-urban thermal variability in a way that can easily be used by urban planners for evaluating the effects of future urbanization scenarios on human health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkepli, Jafri; Fong, Chan Hwa; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal

2015-12-01

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Life Certification Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusick, Jeffrey J.; Zampino, Edward J.

2013-01-01

An Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) power supply is being developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) in partnership with NASA for potential future deep space science missions. Unlike previous radioisotope power supplies for space exploration, such as the passive MMRTG used recently on the Mars Curiosity rover, the ASRG is an active dynamic power supply with moving Stirling engine mechanical components. Due to the long life requirement of 17 years and the dynamic nature of the Stirling engine, the ASRG project faced some unique challenges trying to establish full confidence that the power supply will function reliably over the mission life. These unique challenges resulted in the development of an overall life certification plan that emphasizes long-term Stirling engine test and inspection when analysis is not practical. The ASRG life certification plan developed is described.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitale, Angelo; Roberts, Frank; Peters, Ronald

Throughout the last century, the cumulative effects of anthropogenic disturbances have caused drastic watershed level landscape changes throughout the Reservation and surrounding areas (Coeur d'Alene Tribe 1998). Changes include stream channelization, wetland draining, forest and palouse prairie conversion for agricultural use, high road density, elimination of old growth timber stands, and denuding riparian communities. The significance of these changes is manifested in the degradation of habitats supporting native flora and fauna. Consequently, populations of native fish, wildlife, and plants, which the Tribe relies on as subsistence resources, have declined or in some instances been extirpated (Apperson et al. 1988; Coeurmore » d'Alene Tribe 1998; Lillengreen et al. 1996; Lillengreen et al. 1993; Gerry Green Coeur d'Alene Tribe wildlife Biologist, personal communication 2002). For example, bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) are not present at detectable levels in Reservation tributaries, westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi) are not present in numbers commensurate with maintaining harvestable fisheries (Lillengreen et al. 1993, 1996), and the Sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) are not present at detectable levels on the Reservation (Gerry Green, Coeur d'Alene Tribe wildlife biologist, personal communication). The Coeur d'Alene Tribe added Fisheries and Wildlife Programs to their Natural Resources Department to address these losses and protect important cultural, and subsistence resources for future generations. The Tribal Council adopted by Resolution 89(94), the following mission statement for the Fisheries Program: 'restore, protect, expand and re-establish fish populations to sustainable levels to provide harvest opportunities'. This mission statement, focused on fisheries restoration and rehabilitation, is a response to native fish population declines throughout the Tribe's aboriginal territory, including the Coeur d'Alene Indian Reservation (Coeur d'Alene Tribe 1998). Implicit in this statement is a commitment to provide native subsistence resources in the present and near future as well as the long-term by employing all the mitigation and conservation measures available to them. The development of this Habitat Protection Plan is intended to provide additional planning level guidance as the implementation of conservation measures moves forward. The purpose of this plan is to develop a systematic approach to habitat restoration that will ultimately lead to self-perpetuating, harvestable populations of native fish, wildlife and botanical species. Specifically, it is our intention to apply the principles and analyses presented in this plan to prioritize future restoration efforts that receive funding under the Northwest Power Planning Council's Resident Fish and Wildlife Mitigation Programs. Using an ecosystem restoration approach based on landscape ecology concepts (Primack 1993), the basic premise of the plan is to (1) protect functioning habitat conditions and (2) restore degraded habitat conditions. This plan focuses on habitat conditions at the watershed scale (macrohabitat) rather than on the needs of single species and/or species guilds. By focusing restoration efforts at a macrohabitat level, restoration efforts target all native species inhabiting that area. This approach marks a paradigm shift that emphasizes ecological based restoration rather than species-specific restoration. Traditionally, fish managers and wildlife managers have approached restoration independently, often dedicating resources to a single species by focusing on specific habitat types on a small spatial scale (microhabitat) (Robinson and Bolen 1989, Marcot et al. 2002). This management technique has done little to curb declines despite large budgets (Pianka 1994). Restoration on a landscape level has shown promising results (Holling 1992) and many riparian and wetland restoration projects throughout the northwest have inadvertently improved habitats for non-targeted species. Landscape level restoration addresses the overall habitat condition of the regional area (macrohabitat), restoring the native species composition, density, and diversity by restoring the native ecosystem function. In the context of the development and implementation of this Habitat Protection Plan, it is important to understand that this is primarily a conservation tool, and is not intended to displace efforts that mitigate for lost resources. This plan is intended to primarily address long-term conservation needs and may not accommodate immediate short-term needs that address lost resources. Therefore, areas selected to address short-term mitigation needs may not be located in the high priority areas identified in this Plan. It needs to be clear that these projects and areas are no less important than those identified in this Plan.« less

Latest Sensors and Data Acquisition Development Efforts at KSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perotti, Jose M.

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation summarizes the characteristics required on sensors by consumers desiring access to space, a long term plan developed at KSC (Kennedy Space Center) to identify promising technologies for NASA's own future sensor needs, and the characteristics of several smart sensors already developed. Also addressed are the computer hardware and architecture used to operate sensors, and generic testing capabilities. Consumers desire sensors which are lightweight, inexpensive, intelligent, and easy to use.

The NLM Indexing Initiative.

PubMed Central

Aronson, A. R.; Bodenreider, O.; Chang, H. F.; Humphrey, S. M.; Mork, J. G.; Nelson, S. J.; Rindflesch, T. C.; Wilbur, W. J.

2000-01-01

The objective of NLM's Indexing Initiative (IND) is to investigate methods whereby automated indexing methods partially or completely substitute for current indexing practices. The project will be considered a success if methods can be designed and implemented that result in retrieval performance that is equal to or better than the retrieval performance of systems based principally on humanly assigned index terms. We describe the current state of the project and discuss our plans for the future. PMID:11079836

Use of Climate Information for Decision-Making and Impacts Research: State of Our Understanding

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

SUMMARY Much of human society and its infrastructure has been designed and built on a key assumption: that future climate conditions at any given...experienced in the past. This assumption affects infrastructure design and maintenance, emergency response management, and long-term investment and planning...our scientific understanding of the climate system in a manner that incorporates user needs into the design of scientific experiments, and that

Fragile Relationships: Japan, High Technology, and U.S. Vital Interests

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-04-04

costs ; better manufacturing techniques; higher quality products; excellent marketing plans; and, direct and indirect government support. 5 Akio...short-term and have not looked to the future, as have the Japanese. The stockholders’ demand for large, quick profits often cost market shares and...grip the country as we use increasing amounts of our wealth to service the national debt. Japan will be our creditor. U.S. market shares, both

Large Hadron Collider commissioning and first operation.

PubMed

Myers, S

2012-02-28

A history of the commissioning and the very successful early operation of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is described. The accident that interrupted the first commissioning, its repair and the enhanced protection system put in place are fully described. The LHC beam commissioning and operational performance are reviewed for the period from 2010 to mid-2011. Preliminary plans for operation and future upgrades for the LHC are given for the short and medium term.

The Practice of Strategic Planning in the Organization of the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-07

or go into steady decline. Books and articles abound offering a variety of prescriptions to deal with the phenomena of continually shrinking markets ...organizations continue to view themselves as external boundary spanners, market strategists, or acquisitioners divorced from the internal culture of the...management team, to act a- guardians of the process. A simple set of definition.s was selected and agreed upon. The onlN imperatives in term-selection were

Equitable PERSTEMPO - The Challenge for Long-Term Deployed Armed Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-07

substantial impact on the operational effectiveness of the Bundeswehr of the future.  Rudolf Scharping Former Federal Minister of Defense The vision...Federal Minister of Defense, Rudolf Scharping, initiated a new force planning by means of the so-called "Cornerstones Paper" on 01 June 2000, the Chief of...Annex 1) 77 Rainer Marr, Timea Biro, and Karin Steiner , Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf des Soldaten – Moeglichkeiten und Grenzen einer

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

The 1990 progress report and future plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedland, Peter; Zweben, Monte; Compton, Michael

1990-01-01

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers.

Toward full life cycle control: Adding maintenance measurement to the SEL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rombach, H. Dieter; Ulery, Bradford T.; Valett, Jon D.

1992-01-01

Organization-wide measurement of software products and processes is needed to establish full life cycle control over software products. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL)--a joint venture between NASA GSFC, the University of Maryland, and Computer Sciences Corporation--started measurement of software development more than 15 years ago. Recently, the measurement of maintenance was added to the scope of the SEL. In this article, the maintenance measurement program is presented as an addition to the already existing and well-established SEL development measurement program and evaluated in terms of its immediate benefits and long-term improvement potential. Immediate benefits of this program for the SEL include an increased understanding of the maintenance domain, the differences and commonalities between development and maintenance, and the cause-effect relationships between development and maintenance. Initial results from a sample maintenance study are presented to substantiate these benefits. The long-term potential of this program includes the use of maintenance baselines to better plan and manage future projects and to improve development and maintenance practices for future projects wherever warranted.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

The NASA Materials Science Research Program: It's New Strategic Goals and Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlagheck, Ronald A.; Stagg, Elizabeth

2004-01-01

In the past year, the NASA s Office of Biological and Physical Research (OBPR) has formulated a long term plan to perform strategical and fundamental research bringing together physics, chemistry, biology, and engineering to solve problems needed for current and future agency mission goals. Materials Science is one of basic disciplines within the Enterprise s Division of Physical Sciences Research. The Materials Science Program participates to utilize effective use of International Space Station (ISS) and various world class ground laboratory facilities to solve new scientific and technology questions and transfer these results for public and agency benefits. The program has recently targeted new investigative research in strategic areas necessary to expand NASA knowledge base for exploration of the universe and some of these experiments will need access to the microgravity of space. The program is implementing a wide variety of traditional ground and flight based research related types of fundamental science related to materials crystallization, fundamental processing, and properties characterization in order to obtain basic understanding of various phenomena effects and relationships to the structures, processing, and properties of materials. , In addition new initiatives in radiation protection, materials for propulsion and In-space fabrication and repair focus on research helping the agency solve problems needed for future transportation into the solar system. A summary of the types and sources for this research is presented including those experiments planned for a low gravity environment. Areas to help expand the science basis for NASA future missions are described. An overview of the program is given including the scope of the current and future NASA Research Announcements with emphasis on new materials science initiatives. A description of the planned flight experiments to be conducted on the International Space Station program along with the planned facility class Materials Science Research Rack (MSRR) and Microgravity Glovebox (MSG) type investigations. Some initial results from the first three materials experiments are given.

[Technology and future ways of thinking related to work from ergonomics points of views in moments of global crisis].

PubMed

Puentes-Lagos, David E; García-Acosta, Gabriel

2012-06-01

Is it possible to establish (at short, medium and long term) future work conditions or expected work conditions for Colombian people considering upcoming work technologies? Is it possible to anticipate future work desirable work conditions for Colombian people in order to plan (foresee?) work technologies? These questions guided this research and they point to an action thesis and to a reaction one in this context of work crisis. Even though a work technology establishes where, when, how, who, who with, and using what element work is done, it also establishes certain work conditions. Besides, multiple forms of considering and deconstructing past have been created from many disciplines. However, in order to foresee or construct work technologies requires a different perspective for looking further. This research has been carried out considering other disciplines points of view regarding Future Studies and Future Thinking Studies. This research has the purpose of finding future paths for Future Thinking Studies from ergonomics point of view in this moment of global work crisis we are going through.

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.

Incorporating operational flexibility into electric generation planning Impacts and methods for system design and policy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmintier, Bryan S.

This dissertation demonstrates how flexibility in hourly electricity operations can impact long-term planning and analysis for future power systems, particularly those with substantial variable renewables (e.g., wind) or strict carbon policies. Operational flexibility describes a power system's ability to respond to predictable and unexpected changes in generation or demand. Planning and policy models have traditionally not directly captured the technical operating constraints that determine operational flexibility. However, as demonstrated in this dissertation, this capability becomes increasingly important with the greater flexibility required by significant renewables (>= 20%) and the decreased flexibility inherent in some low-carbon generation technologies. Incorporating flexibility can significantly change optimal generation and energy mixes, lower system costs, improve policy impact estimates, and enable system designs capable of meeting strict regulatory targets. Methodologically, this work presents a new clustered formulation that tractably combines a range of normally distinct power system models, from hourly unit-commitment operations to long-term generation planning. This formulation groups similar generators into clusters to reduce problem size, while still retaining the individual unit constraints required to accurately capture operating reserves and other flexibility drivers. In comparisons against traditional unit commitment formulations, errors were generally less than 1% while run times decreased by several orders of magnitude (e.g., 5000x). Extensive numerical simulations, using a realistic Texas-based power system show that ignoring flexibility can underestimate carbon emissions by 50% or result in significant load and wind shedding to meet environmental regulations. Contributions of this dissertation include: 1. Demonstrating that operational flexibility can have an important impact on power system planning, and describing when and how these impacts occur; 2. Demonstrating that a failure to account for operational flexibility can result in undesirable outcomes for both utility planners and policy analysts; and 3. Extending the state of the art for electric power system models by introducing a tractable method for incorporating unit commitment based operational flexibility at full 876o hourly resolution directly into planning optimization. Together these results encourage and offer a new flexibility-aware approach for capacity planning and accompanying policy design that can enable cleaner, less expensive electric power systems for the future. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs mit.edu)

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farag, Aida; Larson, Diane L.; Stauber, Jenny; Stahl, Ralph; Isanhart, John; McAbee, Kevin T.; Walsh, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process: Implications for Long-Range Planning in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.; Renfro, William L.

The concepts of long-range planning and strategic planning are explained, and a planning model is proposed. Attention is directed to an environmental scanning model that is congruent with the concept of strategic planning and that emerges from one portion of the futures research community, issues management. A third planning model, the strategic…

Tracking the Short Term Planning (STP) Development Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Melanie; Moore, Alexander

2010-01-01

Part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration?s mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research is enhanced by discovering new scientific tools to improve life on earth. Sequentially, to successfully explore the unknown, there has to be a planning process that organizes certain events in the right priority. Therefore, the planning support team has to continually improve their processes so the ISS Mission Operations can operate smoothly and effectively. The planning support team consists of people in the Long Range Planning area that develop timelines that includes International Partner?s Preliminary STP inputs all the way through to publishing of the Final STP. Planning is a crucial part of the NASA community when it comes to planning the astronaut?s daily schedule in great detail. The STP Process is in need of improvement, because of the various tasks that are required to be broken down in order to get the overall objective of developing a Final STP done correctly. Then a new project came along in order to store various data in a more efficient database. "The SharePoint site is a Web site that provides a central storage and collaboration space for documents, information, and ideas."

Iskuulpa Watershed Management Plan : A Five-Year Plan for Protecting and Enhancing Fish and Wildlife Habitats in the Iskuulpa Watershed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Wildlife Program

The Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) propose to protect, enhance, and mitigate wildlife and wildlife habitat and watershed resources in the Iskuulpa Watershed. The Iskuulpa Watershed Project was approved as a Columbia River Basin Wildlife Fish and Mitigation Project by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Northwest Power Planning Council (NWPPC) in 1998. Iskuulpa will contribute towards meeting BPA's obligation to compensate for wildlife habitat losses resulting from the construction of the John Day and McNary Hydroelectric facilities on the Columbia River. By funding the enhancement and operation and maintenance of the Iskuulpa Watershed, BPA will receivemore » credit towards their mitigation debt. The purpose of the Iskuulpa Watershed management plan update is to provide programmatic and site-specific standards and guidelines on how the Iskuulpa Watershed will be managed over the next three years. This plan provides overall guidance on both short and long term activities that will move the area towards the goals, objectives, and desired future conditions for the planning area. The plan will incorporate managed and protected wildlife and wildlife habitat, including operations and maintenance, enhancements, and access and travel management.« less

Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

2017-12-01

Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

The connection between long-term and short-term risk management strategies: examples from land-use planning and emergency management in four European case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenger-Berninghoff, K.; Cortes, V. J.; Sprague, T.; Aye, Z. C.; Greiving, S.; Głowacki, W.; Sterlacchini, S.

2014-04-01

The need for continuous adaptation to complex and unforeseen events requires enhancing the links between planning and preparedness phases to reduce future risks in the most efficient way. In this context, the legal-administrative and cultural context has to be taken into account. This is why four case study areas of the CHANGES1 project (Nehoiu Valley in Romania, Ubaye Valley in France, Val Canale in Italy, and Wieprzówka catchment in Poland) serve as examples to highlight currently implemented risk management strategies for land-use planning and emergency preparedness. The strategies described in this paper were identified by means of exploratory and informal interviews in each study site. Results reveal that a dearth or, in very few cases, a weak link exists between spatial planners and emergency managers. Management strategies could benefit from formally intensifying coordination and cooperation between emergency services and spatial planning authorities. Moreover, limited financial funds urge for a more efficient use of resources and better coordination towards long-term activities. The research indicates potential benefits to establishing or, in some cases, strengthening this link and provides suggestions for further development in the form of information and decision support systems as a key connection point. Aside from the existent information systems for emergency management, it was found that a common platform, which integrates involvement of these and other relevant actors could enhance this connection and address expressed stakeholder needs. 1 Marie Curie ITN CHANGES - Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists.

Forecasting the Development of the Tourism Industry in the Regions of Russia in Light of Global Climate Change and Environmental Situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evreinov, O. B.; Maksimova, E. M.; Bakanova, A. A.; Yakovleva, M. P.

2014-12-01

Forecasting the development of the tourism industry is a strategic planning for periods ranging from 20 to 50 years. Basis for the development of tourism in the region is the presence of the necessary infrastructure - roads, communications, accommodation facilities and hospitality. Thus, all investments in the tourism industry are very long-term. Current approaches to long-term planning in tourism based on the most efficient use of the region's resources - natural, cultural, etc. But what will happen to these resources in 20-30 years? Global warming and climate change, a change in environmental conditions - all this gives the real impact today. Summer 2010 in Moscow and in the whole of Europe, warm snowless winters in St. Petersburg, monthly temperature records, permafrost thawing in Siberia - all this can affect the characteristics of the tourist regions in the future. In the presentation, the authors have tried to reflect the basic principles of strategic planning with regard to global and regional changes and to show the possible impact of such changes on Tourism industry in specific regions of Russia for the next 30-50 years.

Future Focusing: An Alternative to Long-Range Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peck, Robert D.

Characteristics of small college administration as it applies to the future are described. Consideration is given to the process for anticipating change in the circumstances surrounding colleges, identifying opportunities, and planning to take advantage of positive changes in the environment (i.e., future focused planning). The use of the Planning…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Understanding what asthma plans mean: a linguistic analysis of terminology used in published texts.

PubMed

Ring, Nicola; Pinnock, Hilary; Wilson, Caroline; Hoskins, Gaylor; Jepson, Ruth; Wyke, Sally; Sheikh, Aziz

2011-06-01

To identify from the literature what terms are used for 'asthma plans', with what meaning, and in what context(s). Linguistic analysis of a selected body of asthma literature from 1989-2009. A wide range of asthma plan terminology was evident, with terms such as 'action plans', 'self-management plans' and 'treatment plans' being applied inconsistently and synonymously. For individual patients the term 'asthma plan' can describe a clinically-determined list of prescribed medication, an agreed plan to guide self-management of changing symptoms, or a more holistic 'living with asthma' plan. In some contexts the term 'asthma plan' was also used to describe an organisational system of care, which causes further ambiguity. Within the literature, a plethora of terms is used inconsistently and with varied meaning. This is a potential, but previously unrecognised, barrier to asthma plan implementation. A taxonomy of asthma plans and a standardised definitions of terms is required.

Operational considerations for implementing regional sediment management plans in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Underwood, Steven G.; Khalil, Syed M.; Byrnes, Mark R.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Raynie, Richard C

2015-01-01

Development of a comprehensive and stakeholder-driven Regional Sediment Management plan can provide the basis for long-term sustainable resource use and protection. This paper highlights three operational components that can positively influence sediment management at a regional scale, including (1) integration of an operational sediment budget, (2) development of a monitoring and adaptive management plan, and (3) development of a regional sediment availability and allocation program. These components seek to incorporate science and adaptive management through implementation of an organized and well-documented decision making process. They represent a coordinated framework that could serve as a guide for unifying financial investments in regional sediment management plans. Collectively, they establish an integrated process for addressing uncertainties about future system change in light of shrinking federal and state budgets, competing demands for sediment resources within riverine and marine waters, and policy considerations related to sediment/water use (e.g., navigation and commerce versus environmental management).

Practice Plans of Today's Medical Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Raye Hudson; And Others

1981-01-01

Students' future practice plans were surveyed by questionnaire at three Michigan medical schools to study future physician productivity and its implications for health manpower planning. Results suggested that the students planned to work less than they thought their role models did. (LB)

Addressing psychosocial issues in cancer survivorship: past, present and future.

PubMed

Walsh, Katherine

2016-12-01

With a burgeoning population of cancer survivors, organizations in the USA and around the world are considering how to address the many long-term and late psychosocial effects of cancer and cancer treatment. This article reviews the changing landscape of survivorship care over the past 50 years, from the time when there were relatively few survivors to the future, when the number of cancer survivors in the USA alone is expected to reach close to 20 million. Institute of Medicine Reports, intra-organizational summits and accrediting standards that have influenced the development of survivorship care plans and programs and the roles of the Internet and smartphone applications along with oncology specialist and primary care providers are discussed.

Hearing aids for nursing home residents: current policy and future needs.

PubMed

Cohen-Mansfield, Jiska; Infeld, Donna Lind

2006-11-01

Hearing aids are crucial for people with hearing loss, especially dementia patients in nursing homes. However, the actual use of hearing aids in this population is very low. A major barrier to use is the cost. This paper examines the issue in terms of current financial coverage available through federal and state systems as well as private insurance. We discuss the applicability of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and other federal laws to this problem. There is a need for future policy development to improve both the quality of hearing aids and the financial mechanisms that will allow nursing home residents to use them. Plans to move the policy agenda forward are suggested.

Tank System Integrated Model: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Schnell, A. R.; Moder, J. P.

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants, pressurization rate, and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning for future space exploration missions. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, mixing, and condensation on the tank wall. This TM also includes comparisons of TankSIM program predictions with the test data andexamples of multiphase mission calculations.

Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation

PubMed Central

Pressey, Robert L.; Weeks, Rebecca; Andréfouët, Serge; Moloney, James

2016-01-01

Spatial data characteristics have the potential to influence various aspects of prioritising biodiversity areas for systematic conservation planning. There has been some exploration of the combined effects of size of planning units and level of classification of physical environments on the pattern and extent of priority areas. However, these data characteristics have yet to be explicitly investigated in terms of their interaction with different socioeconomic cost data during the spatial prioritisation process. We quantify the individual and interacting effects of three factors—planning-unit size, thematic resolution of reef classes, and spatial variability of socioeconomic costs—on spatial priorities for marine conservation, in typical marine planning exercises that use reef classification maps as a proxy for biodiversity. We assess these factors by creating 20 unique prioritisation scenarios involving combinations of different levels of each factor. Because output data from these scenarios are analogous to ecological data, we applied ecological statistics to determine spatial similarities between reserve designs. All three factors influenced prioritisations to different extents, with cost variability having the largest influence, followed by planning-unit size and thematic resolution of reef classes. The effect of thematic resolution on spatial design depended on the variability of cost data used. In terms of incidental representation of conservation objectives derived from finer-resolution data, scenarios prioritised with uniform cost outperformed those prioritised with variable cost. Following our analyses, we make recommendations to help maximise the spatial and cost efficiency and potential effectiveness of future marine conservation plans in similar planning scenarios. We recommend that planners: employ the smallest planning-unit size practical; invest in data at the highest possible resolution; and, when planning across regional extents with the intention of incidentally representing fine-resolution features, prioritise the whole region with uniform costs rather than using coarse-resolution data on variable costs. PMID:27829042

Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation.

PubMed

Cheok, Jessica; Pressey, Robert L; Weeks, Rebecca; Andréfouët, Serge; Moloney, James

2016-01-01

Spatial data characteristics have the potential to influence various aspects of prioritising biodiversity areas for systematic conservation planning. There has been some exploration of the combined effects of size of planning units and level of classification of physical environments on the pattern and extent of priority areas. However, these data characteristics have yet to be explicitly investigated in terms of their interaction with different socioeconomic cost data during the spatial prioritisation process. We quantify the individual and interacting effects of three factors-planning-unit size, thematic resolution of reef classes, and spatial variability of socioeconomic costs-on spatial priorities for marine conservation, in typical marine planning exercises that use reef classification maps as a proxy for biodiversity. We assess these factors by creating 20 unique prioritisation scenarios involving combinations of different levels of each factor. Because output data from these scenarios are analogous to ecological data, we applied ecological statistics to determine spatial similarities between reserve designs. All three factors influenced prioritisations to different extents, with cost variability having the largest influence, followed by planning-unit size and thematic resolution of reef classes. The effect of thematic resolution on spatial design depended on the variability of cost data used. In terms of incidental representation of conservation objectives derived from finer-resolution data, scenarios prioritised with uniform cost outperformed those prioritised with variable cost. Following our analyses, we make recommendations to help maximise the spatial and cost efficiency and potential effectiveness of future marine conservation plans in similar planning scenarios. We recommend that planners: employ the smallest planning-unit size practical; invest in data at the highest possible resolution; and, when planning across regional extents with the intention of incidentally representing fine-resolution features, prioritise the whole region with uniform costs rather than using coarse-resolution data on variable costs.

The past, present, and future of National Aeronautics and Space Administration spaceflight diet in support of microgravity rodent experiments.

PubMed

Sun, Gwo-Shing; Tou, Janet C; Yu, Diane; Girten, Beverly E; Cohen, Jacob

2014-02-01

Rodents have been the most frequently flown animal model used to study physiological responses to the space environment. In support of future of space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) envisions an animal research program focused on rodents. Therefore, the development of a rodent diet that is suitable for the spaceflight environment including long duration spaceflight is a high priority. Recognizing the importance of nutrition in affecting spaceflight physiological responses and ensuring reliable biomedical and biological science return, NASA developed the nutrient-upgraded rodent food bar (NuRFB) as a standard diet for rodent spaceflight. Depending on future animal habitat hardware and planned spaceflight experiments, modification of the NuRFB or development of a new diet formulation may be needed, particularly for long term spaceflights. Research in this area consists primarily of internal technical reports that are not readily accessible. Therefore, the aims of this contribution are to provide a brief history of the development of rodent spaceflight diets, to review the present diet used in rodent spaceflight studies, and to discuss some of the challenges and potential solutions for diets to be used in future long-term rodent spaceflight studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of an emergency hiring plan on the shortage and distribution of nurses in Kenya: the importance of information systems

PubMed Central

Gross, JM; Riley, PL; Kiriinya, R; Rakuom, C; Willy, R; Kamenju, A; Oywer, E; Wambua, D; Waudo, A

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To analyse the effect of Kenya’s Emergency Hiring Plan for nurses on their inequitable distribution in rural and underserved areas. Methods We used data from the Kenya Health Workforce Informatics System on the nursing workforce to determine the effect of the Emergency Hiring Plan on nurse shortages and maldistribution. The total number of nurses, the number of nurses per 100 000 population and the opening of previously closed or new heath facilities were recorded. Findings Of the 18 181 nurses employed in Kenya’s public sector in 2009, 1836 (10%) had been recruited since 2005 through the Emergency Hiring Plan. Nursing staff increased by 7% in hospitals, 13% in health centres and 15% in dispensaries. North Eastern province, which includes some of the most remote areas, benefited most: the number of nurses per 100 000 population increased by 37%. The next greatest increase was in Nyanza province, which has the highest prevalence of HIV infection in Kenya. Emergency Hiring Plan nurses enabled the number of functioning public health facilities to increase by 29%. By February 2010, 94% of the nurses hired under pre-recruitment absorption agreements had entered the civil service. Conclusion The Emergency Hiring Plan for nurses significantly increased health services in Kenya’s rural and underserved areas over the short term. Preliminary indicators of sustainability are promising, as most nurses hired are now civil servants. However, continued monitoring will be necessary over the long term to evaluate future nurse retention. The accurate workforce data provided by the Kenya Health Workforce Informatics System were essential for evaluating the effect of the Emergency Hiring Plan. PMID:21076563

Additional EIPC Study Analysis. Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W; Gotham, Douglas J.; Luciani, Ralph L.

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations weremore » developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 14 topics was developed for further analysis. This paper brings together the earlier interim reports of the first 13 topics plus one additional topic into a single final report.« less

Active Control of Cryogenic Propellants in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Notardonato, William

2011-01-01

A new era of space exploration is being planned. Exploration architectures under consideration require the long term storage of cryogenic propellants in space. This requires development of active control systems to mitigate the effect of heat leak. This work summarizes current state of the art, proposes operational design strategies and presents options for future architectures. Scaling and integration of active systems will be estimated. Ideal long range spacecraft systems will be proposed with Exploration architecture benefits considered.

Progress on plutonium stabilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurt, D.

1996-05-01

The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board has safety oversight responsibility for most of the facilities where unstable forms of plutonium are being processed and packaged for interim storage. The Board has issued recommendations on plutonium stabilization and has has a considerable influence on DOE`s stabilization schedules and priorities. The Board has not made any recommendations on long-term plutonium disposition, although it may get more involved in the future if DOE develops plans to use defense nuclear facilities for disposition activities.

VGOS Observing Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrachenko, Bill; Behrend, Dirk; Gipson, John; Hase, Hayo; Ma, Chopo; MacMillan, Dan; Niell, Arthur; Nothnagel, Axel; Zhang, Xiuzhong

2014-12-01

Over the past several years, the VGOS broadband system has been under development; it is currently undergoing advanced testing. At the same time, commitments were made for a number of antenna projects with as many as 30 stations expected for VGOS observing by 2019. In order to focus activities into the future, a proposal was made by the VPEG for an observing plan with the long term goal of guiding the transition from S/X operations to VGOS operations. The plan anticipates that by the end of 2014 as many as eight antennas will be capable of broadband observing. These antennas will participate in a series of test campaigns during 2015 followed by a VGOS pilot project throughout 2016. Full operations with as many as 16 stations are expected to begin in 2017. The observing plan places a priority on early improvement in the quality of daily products. As a result, the pilot project involves a single weekly 24-hour session with reduced duty cycle sessions on each of the remaining days of the week. Correlator and data transmission requirements for the plan are currently being assessed.

Incremental planning to control a blackboard-based problem solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durfee, E. H.; Lesser, V. R.

1987-01-01

To control problem solving activity, a planner must resolve uncertainty about which specific long-term goals (solutions) to pursue and about which sequences of actions will best achieve those goals. A planner is described that abstracts the problem solving state to recognize possible competing and compatible solutions and to roughly predict the importance and expense of developing these solutions. With this information, the planner plans sequences of problem solving activities that most efficiently resolve its uncertainty about which of the possible solutions to work toward. The planner only details actions for the near future because the results of these actions will influence how (and whether) a plan should be pursued. As problem solving proceeds, the planner adds new details to the plan incrementally, and monitors and repairs the plan to insure it achieves its goals whenever possible. Through experiments, researchers illustrate how these new mechanisms significantly improve problem solving decisions and reduce overall computation. They briefly discuss current research directions, including how these mechanisms can improve a problem solver's real-time response and can enhance cooperation in a distributed problem solving network.

Vaginal breech birth: can we move beyond the Term Breech Trial?

PubMed

Hunter, Linda A

2014-01-01

Since the publication of the Term Breech Trial in 2000, planned cesarean has become the preferred mode of birth for women whose fetus is in a breech presentation. Over the past 20 years, however, subsequent evidence has not shown conclusively that cesarean birth is safer than vaginal birth for a fetus in a breech presentation when certain criteria are met. Many obstetric organizations support the option of planned vaginal birth for women with a breech presentation under strict prelabor selection criteria and intrapartum management guidelines. The growing trend toward cesarean unfortunately has left midwives and other intrapartum care providers in training with dwindling opportunities to competently master skills for vaginal breech birth. Although simulation training offers opportunities to practice infrequently encountered skills such as vaginal breech birth, it is unknown if this alternative will provide sufficient experience for future generations of clinicians. As a result, women with a breech presentation at term who desire a trial of labor often have limited choices. This article reviews the controversies surrounding the ideal mode of birth created by the Term Breech Trial. Criteria for vaginal breech birth are summarized and the role of simulation explored. Implications for midwifery practice when a breech presentation is diagnosed are also included. © 2014 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

77 FR 3635 - Connect America Fund; A National Broadband Plan for Our Future; Establishing Just and Reasonable...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-25

...-208; Report No. 2945] Connect America Fund; A National Broadband Plan for Our Future; Establishing Just and Reasonable Rates for Local Exchange Carriers; High-Cost Universal Service Support et al... applicability. Subject: Connect America Fund: A National Broadband Plan for Our Future; Establishing Just and...

Embedding Self-Determination and Futures Planning within a Schoolwide Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohanon, Hank; Castillo, Jose; Afton, Morgan

2015-01-01

This article illustrates the infusion of self-determination approaches (e.g., futures planning) within a schoolwide context. Unfortunately, some students are not explicitly instructed by school staff to address their plans for the future. This may be a result of school professionals' feelings of inadequacy to address skill sets outside of…

[Educational and occupational expectations of tomorrow's generation of physicians].

PubMed

Weber, A; Strebl, H; Weltle, D; Lehnert, G

1996-12-01

As a result of increased competition on the market for young doctors and the continuing debate on the kind and extent of reforms planned for university courses, it is becoming increasingly difficult for students of human medicine to plan their occupational future. Against this background, the aim of this study was to evaluate the expectations regarding training and occupation of students embarking on their course and to carry out extensive analysis of the results taking socio-demographic variables into consideration. The study was designed as a survey using standardised, anonymous questionnaires, which took place at the beginning of two terms (summer term 95 and winter term 95/96) and was carried out with students attending the lectures on "Occupational opportunities". Sociodemographic factors, the student's educational history, expectations of university training, estimation of occupational opportunities and the medical discipline the student hoped to work in, were all taken into consideration. 212 (female: 110/male: 102) (78%) of the 271 students registered for the course took part in the survey. All the students were in their first term. The median age was 20 (range 18-32). 55% of those taking part in the survey came from academic families, 15% with doctors in the family. On the average, 12 months had elapsed since leaving school and starting university. 21% had taken up another course of study before turning to medicine, 20% had already completed some other occupational training, in particular in non-medical health services. For the great majority (97%) the quality of the course is very important and great emphasis is laid on how knowledge is conveyed in lectures. Correspondingly, 86% regarded personal contact with the lecturers as important. Two-thirds of those taking part in the survey had heard of the concept "problem-oriented learning", 91% could imagine having part of their training abroad. Every second student regarded his own occupational changes skeptically, and 50% of first-term students could imagine their occupational futures outside the classical occupational fields in clinics and general practice. Qualified teaching with personal contact with the lecturers is regarded as particularly important despite the general complaint of mass teaching and anonymity. Bearing this in mind, future reforms should, in particular, aim at strengthening personnel and financial resources. With recognisable occupational flexibility already apparent at the beginning of medical studies, more information should be provided on training for alternative medical occupations.

The future of employer-sponsored retiree medical plans.

PubMed

Rappaport, A M; Kalman, R W

1987-01-01

Complex issues cloud the economic security of people who are covered by employer-sponsored retiree medical plans. The future stability of these plans is especially confusing. In their paper, the authors carefully analyze the current structure of retiree medical plans, including the effect of certain laws. Their clarifications are objective and concise. Of particular timeliness and practicality--particularly for public policy markers--is the authors' four-point strategy to help stabilize the future.

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

Scientifically defensible fish conservation and recovery plans: Addressing diffuse threats and developing rigorous adaptive management plans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maas-Hebner, Kathleen G.; Schreck, Carl B.; Hughes, Robert M.; Yeakley, Alan; Molina, Nancy

2016-01-01

We discuss the importance of addressing diffuse threats to long-term species and habitat viability in fish conservation and recovery planning. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, salmonid management plans have typically focused on degraded freshwater habitat, dams, fish passage, harvest rates, and hatchery releases. However, such plans inadequately address threats related to human population and economic growth, intra- and interspecific competition, and changes in climate, ocean, and estuarine conditions. Based on reviews conducted on eight conservation and/or recovery plans, we found that though threats resulting from such changes are difficult to model and/or predict, they are especially important for wide-ranging diadromous species. Adaptive management is also a critical but often inadequately constructed component of those plans. Adaptive management should be designed to respond to evolving knowledge about the fish and their supporting ecosystems; if done properly, it should help improve conservation efforts by decreasing uncertainty regarding known and diffuse threats. We conclude with a general call for environmental managers and planners to reinvigorate the adaptive management process in future management plans, including more explicitly identifying critical uncertainties, implementing monitoring programs to reduce those uncertainties, and explicitly stating what management actions will occur when pre-identified trigger points are reached.

USGS: Building on leadership in mapping oceans and coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, M.D.

2008-01-01

The US Geological Survey (USGS) offers continuously improving technologies for mapping oceans and coasts providing unique opportunity for characterizing the marine environment and to expand the understanding of coastal and ocean processes, resources, and hazards. USGS, which has been designated as a leader for mapping the Exclusive Economic Zone, has made an advanced strategic plan, Facing Tomorrow's Challenges- US Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007 to 2017. This plan focuses on innovative and transformational themes that serve key clients and customers, expand partnerships, and have long-term national impact. The plan includes several key science directions, including Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem Change, Energy and Minerals for America's Future, and A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program. USGS has also collaborated with diverse partners to incorporate mapping and monitoring within interdisciplinary research programs, addressing the system-scale response of coastal and marine ecosystems.

Hydrologic data and description of a hydrologic monitoring plan for the Borax Lake area, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, Tiffany Rae; McFarland, William D.

1995-01-01

Information from field visits was used to develop a monitoring plan. The plan would include monitoring Borax Lake by measuring discharge, stage, evaporation, temperature, and specific conductance; water-quality sampling and analysis; and monitoring shallow ground-water levels near Borax Lake using shallow piezometers. Minimally, one hot spring in North Borax Lake Spring Group 1 would be monitored for temperature and specific conductance and sampled for water-quality analysis. In addition, two flowing wells would be monitored for water levels, temperature, specific conductance, and discharge and sampled for water-quality analysis. The construction characteristics of these wells must be verified before long-term data collection begins. In the future, it may be helpful to monitor shallow and (or) deep observation wells drilled into the thermal aquifer to understand the possible effects of geothermal development on Borax Lake and nearby springs.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Evaluation of strategies for nature-based solutions to drought: a decision support model at the national scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Mike; Ives, Matthew; Hall, Jim

2016-04-01

There is an increasing body of evidence in support of the use of nature based solutions as a strategy to mitigate drought. Restored or constructed wetlands, grasslands and in some cases forests have been used with success in numerous case studies. Such solutions remain underused in the UK, where they are not considered as part of long-term plans for supply by water companies. An important step is the translation of knowledge on the benefits of nature based solutions at the upland/catchment scale into a model of the impact of these solutions on national water resource planning in terms of financial costs, carbon benefits and robustness to drought. Our project, 'A National Scale Model of Green Infrastructure for Water Resources', addresses this issue through development of a model that can show the costs and benefits associated with a broad roll-out of nature based solutions for water supply. We have developed generalised models of both the hydrological effects of various classes and implementations of nature-based approaches and their economic impacts in terms of construction costs, running costs, time to maturity, land use and carbon benefits. Our next step will be to compare this work with our recent evaluation of conventional water infrastructure, allowing a case to be made in financial terms and in terms of security of water supply. By demonstrating the benefits of nature based solutions under multiple possible climate and population scenarios we aim to demonstrate the potential value of using nature based solutions as a component of future long-term water resource plans. Strategies for decision making regarding the selection of nature based and conventional approaches, developed through discussion with government and industry, will be applied to the final model. Our focus is on keeping our work relevant to the requirements of decision-makers involved in conventional water planning. We propose to present the outcomes of our model for the evaluation of nature-based solutions at catchment scale and ongoing results of our national-scale model.

Status of worldwide Landsat archive

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warriner, Howard W.

1987-01-01

In cooperation with the International Landsat community, and through the Landsat Technical Working Group (LTWG), NOAA is assembling information about the status of the Worldwide Landsat Archive. During LTWG 9, member nations agreed to participate in a survey of International Landsat data holding and of their archive experiences with Landsat data. The goal of the effort was two-fold; one, to document the Landsat archive to date, and, two, to ensure that specific nations' experience with long-term Landsat archival problems were available to others. The survey requested details such as amount of data held, the format of the archive holdings by Spacecraft/Sensor, and acquisition years; the estimated costs to accumulated process, and replace the data (if necessary); the storage space required, and any member nation's plans that would establish the insurance of continuing quality. As a group, the LTWG nations are concerned about the characteristics and reliability of long-term magnetic media storage. Each nation's experience with older data retrieval is solicited in the survey. This information will allow nations to anticipate and plan for required changes to their archival holdings. Also solicited were reports of any upgrades to a nation's archival system that are currently planned and all results of attempts to reduce archive holdings including methodology, current status, and the planned access rates and product support that are anticipated for responding to future archival usage.

Enablers and determinants of the provision of written action plans to patients with asthma: a stratified survey of Canadian physicians.

PubMed

Djandji, Fabienne; Lamontagne, Alexandrine J; Blais, Lucie; Bacon, Simon L; Ernst, Pierre; Grad, Roland; Lavoie, Kim L; McKinney, Martha L; Desplats, Eve; Ducharme, Francine M

2017-03-31

Despite national recommendations, most patients with asthma are not given a written action plan . The objectives were to ascertain physicians' endorsement of potential enablers to providing a written action plan, and the determinants and proportion, of physician-reported use of a written action plan. We surveyed 838 family physicians, paediatricians, and emergency physicians in Quebec. The mailed questionnaire comprised 102 questions on asthma management, 11 of which pertained to written action plan and promising enablers. Physicians also selected a case vignette that best corresponded to their practice and reported their management. The survey was completed by 421 (56%) physicians (250 family physicians, 115 paediatricians and 56 emergency physicians); 43 (5.2%) reported providing a written action plan to ≥70% of their asthmatic patients and 126 (30%) would have used a written action plan in the selected vignette. Most (>60%) physicians highly endorsed the following enablers: patients requesting a written action plan, adding a blank written action plan to the chart, receiving a copy of the written action plan completed by a consultant, receiving a monetary compensation for its completion, and having another healthcare professional explain the completed written action plan to patients. Four determinants were significantly associated with providing a written action plan: being a paediatrician (RR:2.1), treating a child (RR:2.0), aiming for long-term asthma control (RR:2.5), and being aware of national recommendations to provide a written action plan to asthmatic patients (RR:2.9). A small minority of Quebec physicians reported providing a written action plan to most of their patients, revealing a huge care gap. Several enablers to improve uptake, highly endorsed by physicians, should be prioritised in future implementation efforts. ENCOURAGING DOCTORS TO PROVIDE WRITTEN ACTION PLANS: Changes to practice organization and doctors' perceptions should encourage the provision of written action plans for all asthma patients. International guidelines state that effective long-term treatment of asthma requires educated self-management, regular reviews and provision of a written action plan (WAP). However, many patients have poor asthma control and as few as 30 per cent have a WAP. Fabienne Djandji at the Saint-Justine University Central Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and co-workers conducted a survey of 421 doctors to determine their attitudes and provision of WAPs. Only 5.2 per cent of respondents provided WAPs to patients; those treating children or aiming for long-term asthma control were more likely to do so. The doctors said that incentives to provide WAPs would include requests from patients themselves, being paid to complete WAPs and having extra support from specialists or other health care professionals such as pharmacists.

Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol

2008-02-01

The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape,more » methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.« less

The emerging dental workforce: long-term career expectations and influences. A quantitative study of final year dental students' views on their long-term career from one London Dental School

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Research into the motivation and expectations of the emerging workforce and their short-term expectations has already been reported with a view to informing professional and policy decisions. The objective of this component of the research programme was to examine the long-term goals and perceived influences on final year dental students' professional careers. Methods Univariate analysis of a self completed questionnaire survey of all final year dental students from King's College London, comprising questions on demography, long-term career goals and influences, proposed commitment to dentistry, commitment to healthcare systems and the influences thereon. Statistical analysis included Chi Squared tests for linear association. Results Ninety per cent of students responded to this survey (n = 126), the majority of whom were aged 23 years (59%), female (58%) and Asian (70%). Long-term career goals were fairly evenly split between 'dentist with a special interest' (27%), 'primary dental care practitioner' (26%) and 'specialist' (25%), with 19% not certain. Only 60% of total respondents anticipated working full-time in the long-term (79% males cf 52% females; p = 0.00). The vast majority of respondents (≥80%) identified 'work-life balance', 'financial stability' and 'professional development' as 'important' or 'very important' influences on the number of future sessions. Females were significantly more likely to rate childcare commitments as an important influence on their future working capacity compared with males (p = 0.00). A wide range of factors were considered important or very important in making the NHS attractive, led by support for professional development (88%) and feeling valued by patients (88%), as well as funding, time with patients, rewards for prevention and practical issues such as dental materials and premises. Females were significantly more likely than males to be attracted to work within the NHS by 'childcare support' (p = 0.02), 'retraining facilities after career break' (p = 0.01), 'assistance with student debt' (p = 0.01) and 'incentives to work in deprived areas'. Conclusion Long-term career plans of new graduates from this London Dental School commonly embrace opportunities for professional development as well as personal issues such as work/life balance and financial income. Significant differences were identified between male and females long-term plans and influences. The implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:20030814

The emerging dental workforce: long-term career expectations and influences. A quantitative study of final year dental students' views on their long-term career from one London Dental School.

PubMed

Gallagher, Jennifer E; Patel, Resmi; Wilson, Nairn H F

2009-12-23

Research into the motivation and expectations of the emerging workforce and their short-term expectations has already been reported with a view to informing professional and policy decisions. The objective of this component of the research programme was to examine the long-term goals and perceived influences on final year dental students' professional careers. Univariate analysis of a self completed questionnaire survey of all final year dental students from King's College London, comprising questions on demography, long-term career goals and influences, proposed commitment to dentistry, commitment to healthcare systems and the influences thereon. Statistical analysis included Chi Squared tests for linear association. Ninety per cent of students responded to this survey (n = 126), the majority of whom were aged 23 years (59%), female (58%) and Asian (70%). Long-term career goals were fairly evenly split between 'dentist with a special interest' (27%), 'primary dental care practitioner' (26%) and 'specialist' (25%), with 19% not certain. Only 60% of total respondents anticipated working full-time in the long-term (79% males cf 52% females; p = 0.00). The vast majority of respondents (> or =80%) identified 'work-life balance', 'financial stability' and 'professional development' as 'important' or 'very important' influences on the number of future sessions. Females were significantly more likely to rate childcare commitments as an important influence on their future working capacity compared with males (p = 0.00). A wide range of factors were considered important or very important in making the NHS attractive, led by support for professional development (88%) and feeling valued by patients (88%), as well as funding, time with patients, rewards for prevention and practical issues such as dental materials and premises. Females were significantly more likely than males to be attracted to work within the NHS by 'childcare support' (p = 0.02), 'retraining facilities after career break' (p = 0.01), 'assistance with student debt' (p = 0.01) and 'incentives to work in deprived areas'. Long-term career plans of new graduates from this London Dental School commonly embrace opportunities for professional development as well as personal issues such as work/life balance and financial income. Significant differences were identified between male and females long-term plans and influences. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Strategic workforce planning for a multihospital, integrated delivery system.

PubMed

Datz, David; Hallberg, Colleen; Harris, Kathy; Harrison, Lisa; Samples, Patience

2012-01-01

Banner Health has long recognized the need to anticipate, beyond the immediate operational realities or even the annual budgeting projection exercises, the necessary workforce needs of the future. Thus, in 2011, Banner implemented a workforce planning model that included structures, processes, and tools for predicting workforce needs, with particular focus on identified critical systemwide practice areas. The model represents the incorporation of labor management tools and processes with more strategic, broad-view, long-term assessment and planning mechanisms. The sequential tying of the workforce planning lifecycle with the organization's strategy and financial planning process supports alignment of goals, objectives, and resource allocation. Collaboration among strategy, finance, human resources, and operations has provided us with the ability to identify critical position groups based on 3-year strategic priorities. By engaging leaders from across the organization, focusing on activities at facility, regional, and system levels, and building in mechanisms for accountability, we are now engaged in continuous evaluations of our delivery models, the competencies and preparations necessary for the staff to effectively function within those delivery models, and developing and implementing action plans designed to ensure adequate numbers of the staff whose competencies will be suited to the work expected of them.

Integrated Data & Analysis in Support of Informed and Transparent Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guivetchi, K.

2012-12-01

The California Water Plan includes a framework for improving water reliability, environmental stewardship, and economic stability through two initiatives - integrated regional water management to make better use of local water sources by integrating multiple aspects of managing water and related resources; and maintaining and improving statewide water management systems. The Water Plan promotes ways to develop a common approach for data standards and for understanding, evaluating, and improving regional and statewide water management systems, and for common ways to evaluate and select from alternative management strategies and projects. The California Water Plan acknowledges that planning for the future is uncertain and that change will continue to occur. It is not possible to know for certain how population growth, land use decisions, water demand patterns, environmental conditions, the climate, and many other factors that affect water use and supply may change by 2050. To anticipate change, our approach to water management and planning for the future needs to consider and quantify uncertainty, risk, and sustainability. There is a critical need for information sharing and information management to support over-arching and long-term water policy decisions that cross-cut multiple programs across many organizations and provide a common and transparent understanding of water problems and solutions. Achieving integrated water management with multiple benefits requires a transparent description of dynamic linkages between water supply, flood management, water quality, land use, environmental water, and many other factors. Water Plan Update 2013 will include an analytical roadmap for improving data, analytical tools, and decision-support to advance integrated water management at statewide and regional scales. It will include recommendations for linking collaborative processes with technical enhancements, providing effective analytical tools, and improving and sharing data and information. Specifically, this includes achieving better integration and consistency with other planning activities; obtaining consensus on quantitative deliverables; building a common conceptual understanding of the water management system; developing common schematics of the water management system; establishing modeling protocols and standards; and improving transparency and exchange of Water Plan information.

Future states: the axioms underlying prospective, future-oriented, health planning instruments.

PubMed

Koch, T

2001-02-01

Proscriptive planning exercises are critical to and generally accepted as integral to health planning at varying scales. These require specific instruments designed to predict future actions on the basis of present knowledge. At the macro-level of health economics, for example, a number of future-oriented Quality of Life Instruments (QL) are commonly employed. At the level of individual decision making, on the other hand, Advance Directives (AD's) are advanced as a means by which healthy individuals can assure their wishes will be carried out if at some future point they are incapacitated. As proscriptive tools, both instrument classes appear to share an axiomatic set whose individual parts have not been rigorously considered. This paper attempts to first identify and then consider a set of five axioms underlying future oriented health planning instruments. These axioms are then critiqued using data from a pre-test survey designed specifically to address their assumptions. Results appear to challenge the validity of the axioms underlying the proscriptive planning instruments.

76 FR 40817 - Implementation of Section 224 of the Act; A National Broadband Plan for Our Future

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-12

...-50] Implementation of Section 224 of the Act; A National Broadband Plan for Our Future AGENCY... information collection requirements. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) gave approval for these..., Implementation of Section 224 of the Act; A National Broadband Plan for Our Future. DATES: The final rules...

Health sciences library building projects: 1994 survey.

PubMed Central

Ludwig, L

1995-01-01

Designing and building new or renovated space is time consuming and requires politically sensitive discussions concerning a number of both long-term and immediate planning issues. The Medical Library Association's fourth annual survey of library building projects identified ten health sciences libraries that are planning, expanding, or constructing new facilities. Two projects are in predesign stages, four represent new construction, and four involve renovations to existing libraries. The Texas Medical Association Library, the King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre Library, and the Northwestern University Galter Health Sciences Library illustrate how these libraries are being designed for the future and take into account areas of change produced by new information technologies, curricular trends, and new ways to deliver library services. Images PMID:7599586

Neurosciences research in space - Future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sulzman, Frank M.; Wolfe, James W.

1991-01-01

In order to gain a better understanding of the effects of long-duration space missions on the central nervous system, near-term research, to take place from 1990-1995, will be directed at investigating the acute effects of microgravity and the 'space adaptation syndrome'. These include experiments scheduled for the Spacelab Life Sciences 1 which is designed to evaluate changes in the visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive systems. An extensive series of experiments, collectively termed Microgravity Vestibular Investigations (MVI), is also planned for the IML-1 mission to be flown in 1992. The IML-2 mission will emphasize behavior and performance, biological rhythms, and further vestibular studies. Mid-term goals, projected to be achieved from 1995-2000, include the use of new technology such as magnetic recording techniques. Long-term goals are also discussed including studies dealing with neuronal plasticity and sensory substitution, augmentation, and robotic telepresence.

Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-05-31

The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be usedmore » by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic.« less

Towards A Representation of Vertically Resolved Ozone Changes in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Keller, Christoph; McCarty, Will; Coy, Larry

2017-01-01

The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) instruments on NASA and NOAA spacecraft provide a long-term record of total-column ozone and deep-layer partial columns since about 1980. These data have been carefully processed to extract long-term trends and offer a valuable resource for ozone monitoring. Studies assimilating limb-sounding observations in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) demonstrate that vertical ozone gradients in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are much better represented than with the deep-layer SBUV observations. This is exemplified by the use of retrieved ozone from the EOS Microwave Limb Sounder (EOS-MLS) instrument in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, for the period after 2004. This study examines the potential for extending the use of limb-sounding observations at earlier times and into the future, so that future reanalyses may be more applicable to the study of long-term ozone changes.Historical data are available from NASA instruments: the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS: 1978-1979); the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS: 1991-1995); Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER: 2000-onwards). For the post EOS-MLS period, the joint NASA-NOAA Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) instrument was launched on the Suomi-NPP platform in 201x and is planned for future platforms. This study will examine two aspects of these data pertaining to future reanalyses. First, the feasibility of merging the EOS-MLS and OMPS-LP instruments to provide a long-term record that extends beyond the potential lifetime of EOS-MLS. If feasible, this would allow for long-term monitoring of ozone recovery in a three-dimensional reanalysis context. Second, the skill of the GEOS DAS in ingesting historical data types will be investigated. Because these do not overlap with EOS-MLS, use will be made of system statistics and evaluation using independent datasets. Impacts of using a complete ozone chemistry module will also be considered.

Future HEP Accelerators: The US Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhat, Pushpalatha; Shiltsev, Vladimir

2015-11-02

Accelerator technology has advanced tremendously since the introduction of accelerators in the 1930s, and particle accelerators have become indispensable instruments in high energy physics (HEP) research to probe Nature at smaller and smaller distances. At present, accelerator facilities can be classified into Energy Frontier colliders that enable direct discoveries and studies of high mass scale particles and Intensity Frontier accelerators for exploration of extremely rare processes, usually at relatively low energies. The near term strategies of the global energy frontier particle physics community are centered on fully exploiting the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN throughmore » its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC), while the intensity frontier HEP research is focused on studies of neutrinos at the MW-scale beam power accelerator facilities, such as Fermilab Main Injector with the planned PIP-II SRF linac project. A number of next generation accelerator facilities have been proposed and are currently under consideration for the medium- and long-term future programs of accelerator-based HEP research. In this paper, we briefly review the post-LHC energy frontier options, both for lepton and hadron colliders in various regions of the world, as well as possible future intensity frontier accelerator facilities.« less

Future planning in preschool children.

PubMed

Moffett, Lillie; Moll, Henrike; FitzGibbon, Lily

2018-05-01

The capacity to plan ahead and provide the means for future ends is an important part of human practical reasoning. When this capacity develops in ontogeny is the matter of an ongoing debate. In this study, 4- and 5-year-olds performed a future planning task in which they had to create the means (a picture of a particular object, e.g., a banana) that was necessary to address a future end (of completing a game in which such a picture was missing). Children of both ages drew more targets than children in a control condition in which there was no future end to be pursued. Along with prior findings, the results suggest a major progression in children's future thinking between 3 and 5 years. Our findings expand on prior knowledge by showing that young children cannot only identify the probate means to future ends but determine such ends and create the means to achieve them, thus offering compelling evidence for future planning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Examining the support needs of ageing family carers in developing future plans for a relative with an intellectual disability.

PubMed

Taggart, Laurence; Truesdale-Kennedy, Maria; Ryan, Assumpta; McConkey, Roy

2012-09-01

Planning for the future care of adults with an intellectual disability after the main family carer ceases their care, continues to be a sensitive and difficult time posing challenges for service providers internationally. Limited research has been undertaken on this topic because until recently, people with intellectual disability usually pre-deceased their parents. This study examined ageing carers' preferences for future care and the support systems required to make such future plans. The study was conducted in one region of the United Kingdom with a high proportion of family carers. A mixed methods design was employed. In Stage 1, a structured questionnaire was used to collate information on the health, caregiving demands and future planning preferences of 112 parent and sibling carers; aged 60-94 years. In Stage 2, 19 in-depth semistructured interviews were undertaken with a sample of carers to explore a range of issues around future planning. Over half of the carers were lone carers, mainly female, with many reporting a wide range of health problems. A third of these carers reported that their caregiving resulted in high levels of anxiety. The main preference of the carers was for the person to remain in the family home, with either the family and/or paid staff to support them. A minority of parent carers preferred the person to move into the home of a sibling, although some favoured the person moving to a residential facility with other people with intellectual disabilities. The majority of carers did not want their relative to move into an older people's residential/nursing facility. In the qualitative data, four main themes were identified around future planning: unremitting apprehension, the extent of planning, obstacles encountered and solutions for future planning. Avoidance, lack of guidance and a lack of appropriate residential provision were cited as obstacles to making future plans compounded by the emotional upset experienced by carers in thinking about the future. Findings of this study clearly identify the emotional, informational and practical supports required by these ageing family carers. These findings have national and international relevance in influencing how governments and service providers support parent and sibling carers to proactively plan for the future, and in the development of both in-home and out-of-home options when a family carer can no longer provide care. This is more urgent than ever given the growing numbers of older persons with intellectual disabilities in future decades.

Indiana rail plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-08

The 2009 Indiana Rail Plan was developed as part of the Indiana Multimodal Freight and Mobility Plan to direct the State of Indianas future freight and passenger rail policy, provide a framework to guide future decisions regarding rail system inve...

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, M. E.; Perlmutter, M.

1974-01-01

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

Improvement of capabilities of the Distributed Electrochemistry Modeling Tool for investigating SOFC long term performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonzalez Galdamez, Rinaldo A.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.

2012-04-30

This report provides an overview of the work performed for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) modeling during the 2012 Winter/Spring Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internship at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). A brief introduction on the concept, operation basics and applications of fuel cells is given for the general audience. Further details are given regarding the modifications and improvements of the Distributed Electrochemistry (DEC) Modeling tool developed by PNNL engineers to model SOFC long term performance. Within this analysis, a literature review on anode degradation mechanisms is explained and future plans of implementing these into the DEC modeling tool are alsomore » proposed.« less

Advanced research to qualify man for long term weightlessness.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, W. L.

1972-01-01

NASA is in the process of conducting a broad program of research and development of technology to qualify, support, and permit the successful use of man in long-term space flight. The technological tasks include human engineering, extravehicular engineering, life support, and human research to assess the effect of space stresses on human physiology and psychology. Various testing techniques that are being used may have future relevance to world health. These include a biocybernetic approach to the study of cardiovascular stresses, measurement of blood flow by means of the Doppler effect, and a device for simulating radiation dosages similar to those produced in solar flares. The planned program includes a study of both humans and animals.

The GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations: an update on the Space Geodesy Network and the New Implementation Plan for 2017 -18

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearlman, Michael R.; Ma, Chopo; Neilan, Ruth; Noll, Carey; Pavlis, Erricos; Saunier, Jérôme; Schoene, Tilo; Barzaghi, Riccardo; Thaller, Daniela; Bergstrand, Sten; Mueller, Juergen

2017-04-01

Working with the IAG geometric services (VLBI, SLR, GNSS, and DORIS) the Bureau continues to advocate for the expansion and upgrade of the space geodesy networks for the maintenance and improvement of the reference frame and other application, and for the extension and integration with other techniques. New sites are being established following the GGOS concept of "core" and co-location sites; new technologies are being implemented to enhance performance in data yield as well as accuracy. In particular, several groups are undertaking initiatives and seeking partnerships to update existing sites and expand the networks in geographic areas void of coverage. The Bureau continues to meet with organizations to discuss possibilities of new and expanded participation and to promote the concept of partnerships. The Bureau provides the opportunity for representatives from the services to meet and share progress and plans, and to discuss issues of common interest. The Bureau monitors the status and projects the evolution of the network based on information from the current and expected future participants. Of particular interest at the moment is the integration of gravity and tide gauge networks. The Committees and Joint Working Groups play an essential role in the Bureau activity. The Standing Committee on Performance Simulations and Architectural Trade-off (PLATO) uses simulation and analysis techniques to project future network capability and to examine trade-off options. The Committee on Data and Information is working on a strategy for a GGOS metadata system on a near term plan for data products and a more comprehensive longer-term plan for an all-inclusive system. The Committee on Satellite Missions is working to enhance communication with the space missions, to advocate for missions that support GGOS goals and to enhance ground systems support. The IERS Working Group on Site Survey and Co-location (also participating in the Bureau) is working to enhance standardization in procedures, outreach and to encourage new survey groups to participate, and improve procedures to determine systems reference points. The 2017-2018 Implementation Plan for the GGOS Bureau of Networks and Observations has been posted on the GGOS website. We will outline progress over the past two years and discuss the status of the network and updated plan.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my; Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand frommore » the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cort, Katherine A.; Hostick, Donna J.; Belzer, David B.

The purpose of this report is to compile information and conclusions gathered as part of three separate tasks undertaken as part of the overall project, “Modeling EERE Deployment Programs,” sponsored by the Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation office within the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The purpose of the project was to identify and characterize the modeling of deployment programs within the EERE Technology Development (TD) programs, address improvements to modeling in the near term, and note gaps in knowledge where future research is needed.

Mars - The relationship of robotic and human elements in the IAA International Exploration of Mars study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marov, Mikhail YA.; Duke, Michael B.

1993-01-01

The roles of human and robotic missions in Mars exploration are defined in the context of the short- and long-term Mars programs. In particular, it is noted that the currently implemented and planned missions to Mars can be regarded as robotic precursor missions to human exploration. Attention is given to factors that must be considered in formulating the rationale for human flights to Mars and future human Mars settlements and justifying costly projects.

INEL Geothermal Environmental Program. 1979 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thurow, T.L.; Sullivan, J.F.

1980-04-01

The Raft River Geothermal Environmental Program is designed to assess beneficial and detrimental impacts to the ecosystem resulting from the development of moderate temperature geothermal resources in the valley. The results of this research contribute to developing an understanding of Raft River Valley ecology and provide a basis for making management decisions to reduce potential long-term detrimental impacts on the environment. The environmental monitoring and research efforts conducted during the past six years of geothermal development and planned future research are summarized.

Planning in the 90's for Community Colleges: Coping with Rapid Change by Linking Futures Research with Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Diana K.

The rate of the change now occurring outside of community colleges has made long-range planning an especially difficult task. Futures research, which attempts to forecast future scenarios by studying societal, economic, and demographic trends, can be used effectively to facilitate the institutional planning process by anticipating both internal…

Educational Planning for the Future Development of Pasco-Hernando Community College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuffey, C. W.; And Others

The purpose of this study was to develop a long-range educational plan for the future development and expansion of the current program and facilities of Pasco-Hernando Community College. An analysis has been made of available data and related information as a basis for the preparation of a generalized plan to guide the future development of the…

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curry, Judith

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatorymore » environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.« less

Plan demographics, participants' saving behavior, and target-date fund investments.

PubMed

Park, Youngkyun

2009-05-01

This analysis explores (1) whether plan demographic characteristics would affect individual participant contribution rates and target-date fund investments and (2) equity glide paths for participants in relation to plan demographics by considering target replacement income and its success rate. PLAN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN PARTICIPANT CONTRIBUTION RATES: This study finds empirical evidence that 401(k) plan participants' contribution rates differ by plan demographics based on participants' income and/or tenure. In particular, participants in 401(k) plans dominated by those with low income and short tenure tend to contribute less than those in plans dominated by participants with high income and long tenure. Future research will explore how participant contribution behavior may also be influenced by incentives provided by employers through matching formulae. PLAN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN TARGET-DATE FUND INVESTMENTS: The study also finds empirical evidence that participants' investments in target-date funds with different equity allocations differ by plan demographics based on participants' income and/or tenure. In particular, target-date fund users with 90 percent or more of their account balances in target-date funds who are in 401(k) plans dominated by low-income and short-tenure participants tend to hold target-date funds with lower equity allocations, compared with their counterparts in plans dominated by high-income and long-tenure participants. Future research will focus on the extent to which these characteristics might influence the selection of target-date funds by plan sponsors. EQUITY GLIDE PATHS: Several stylized equity glide paths as well as alternative asset allocations are compared for participants at various starting ages to demonstrate the interaction between plan demographics and equity glide paths/asset allocations in terms of success rates in meeting various replacement income targets. The equity glide path/asset allocation providing the highest success rate at a particular replacement rate target will vary with the assumed starting date of the participant (see Figure 17). Given the highly stylized nature of the simulations in this Issue Brief it is important to note that the results are not intended to provide a single equity glide path solution in relation to plan demographics. Instead, they serve as a framework to be considered when plan sponsors make a selection concerning which target-date funds to include in their plan. IMPORTANCE OF PARTICIPANT CONTRIBUTION RATES: This analysis finds that although target-date funds with different equity glide paths affect the retirement income replacement success rate, participant contribution rates corresponding to different plan demographic characteristics have a stronger impact. AUTO FEATURES OF THE PPA: This Issue Brief provides a stylized study using observed contribution rates as of the 2007 plan year. However, with the passage of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 and its likely impact on plan design in the future (increased utilization of automatic enrollment and automatic contribution escalations), it is likely that contribution rates among the participants may become more homogenous. In such a scenario, it may be more likely that a single equity glide path would meet a wide range of demographic profiles.

A community-based, mixed-methods study of the attitudes and behaviors of men regarding modern family planning in Nigeria.

PubMed

Akaba, Godwin; Ketare, Nathaniel; Tile, Wilfred

2016-10-01

To investigate the knowledge, attitudes, and extent of involvement of men in family planning in Nigeria, and to evaluate spousal communication regarding family planning. A community-based, mixed-methods study enrolled participants in Gwagwalada, Abuja, Nigeria between January 11 and June 30, 2012. Quantitative surveys including semi-structured interviews were used to collect information from married men regarding their knowledge and attitudes to modern family planning. The qualitative components constituted focus group discussion sessions and in-depth interviews that included married men, married women, religious leaders, community leaders, and family-planning providers. Quantitative surveys were completed by 152 men; 99 (65.1%) reported that they would accompany their wives to family-planning clinics in the future, 116 (76.3%) reported approving of the use of modern contraception by their wives, and 132 (86.8%) reported wanting to know more about family planning. Both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the study indicated that husbands were the major decision makers regarding family size, choice of contraceptive, and pregnancy timing. In terms of fertility goals and family planning, men were the primary decision makers; consequently, obtaining their support and commitment to family planning is of crucial importance in Nigeria. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy Amchitka, Alaska, Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2008-09-01

This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan describes how the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) intends to fulfill its mission to maintain protection of human health and the environment at the Amchitka, Alaska, Site1. Three underground nuclear tests were conducted on Amchitka Island. The U.S. Department of Defense, in conjunction with the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), conducted the first nuclear test (Long Shot) to provide data that would improve the United States' capability of detecting underground nuclear explosions. The second nuclear test (Milrow) was a weapons-related test conducted by AEC as a means to study the feasibility of detonating amore » much larger device. The final nuclear test (Cannikin), the largest United States underground test, was a weapons-related test. Surface disturbances associated with these tests have been remediated. However, radioactivity remains deep below the surface, contained in and around the test cavities, for which no feasible remediation technology has been identified. In 2006, the groundwater model (Hassan et al. 2002) was updated using 2005 data collected by the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation. Model simulation results indicate there is no breakthrough or seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment within 2,000 years. The Amchitka conceptual model is reasonable; the flow and transport simulation is based on the best available information and data. The simulation results are a quantitative prediction supported by the best available science and technology. This Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan is an additional step intended for the protection of human health and the environment. This plan may be modified from time to time in the future consistent with the mission to protect human health« less

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE PAGES

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; ...

2016-09-12

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions bymore » 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.« less

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends -- in part -- on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 andmore » 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.« less

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions bymore » 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.« less

Water recycling: a major new initiative for Melbourne--crucial for a sustainable future.

PubMed

Arbon, M; Ireland, M

2003-01-01

Melbourne Water has adopted a challenging target of recycling 20 per cent of treated effluent from Melbourne's two major sewerage treatment plants by 2010. This target was adopted in response to key drivers for water recycling in the Melbourne region such as: strong support for conserving water resources and protecting marine environments; acknowledgment of recycled water as a valuable resource; greater emphasis on environmental issues and sustainable management principles; and opportunities to increase demand for recycled water through effective planning mechanisms. Issues that must be effectively addressed to meet the target include: managing public perceptions of recycled water; health and environmental concerns; lack of consensus among government agencies; high up-front costs of infrastructure; and prices of other sources of water supply not currently true costed. Melbourne Water has identified the following factors as critical in determining the success of recycling strategy: ability to demonstrate that water recycling will be important in terms of long term water cycle management; effective stakeholder consultation; gaining government support; establishing long-term, guaranteed markets for recycled water; implementing well planned, large scale recycling schemes; ability to provide a product that meets customer needs; regulatory approval; and implementation of a system that is economically viable. Water recycling initiatives are being investigated on household, local and regional levels. Over 10 proposals that will contribute to the 20 per cent recycled water target from the regional treatment plants are under various stages of development. Melbourne Water's commitment to recycling within a total water cycle management context is a vital component of this major new initiative for Melbourne and is crucial for a sustainable future.

The Future of Water Security in Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo Through Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesualdo, G. C.; Oliveira, P. T. S.; Rodrigues, D. B. B.

2017-12-01

Achieving a balance between water availability and demand is one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the twenty-first century. This challenge is exacerbated by, climate change, which has already affected the water balance of landscapes globally by intensifying runoff, reducing snowpacks, and shifting precipitation regimes. Understanding these changes is crucial to identifying future water availability and developing sustainable management plans, especially in developing countries. Here, we address the developing country water balance challenge by assessing the influence of climate change on the water availability in the Jaguari basin, Southeastern Brazil. The Jaguari basin is one of the main sources of freshwater for 9 million people in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. This region represents about 7% of the Brazil's Gross Domestic Product. The critical importance of the water balance challenge in this area has been highlighted recently when a major drought in southeastern Brazil revealed the vulnerability of current water management systems. Still today, the per capita water availability in the region remains severely limited. To help address this water balance challenge, we use a modeling approach to predict future water vulnerabilities of this region under different climate scenarios. Here, we calibrated and validated a lumped conceptual model using HYMOD to evaluate future scenarios using downscaled climate models resulting from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 GCMs forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We also present future directions which include bias correction from long-term weather station data and an empirical uncertainty assessment. Our results provide an important overview of climate change impacts on streamflow and future water availability in the Jaguari basin, which can be used to guide the basin`s water security plans and strategies.

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on Medium Priority Topics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W.; Gotham, Douglas J.

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a stakeholder steering committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. The first was a 2015–2040 analysis that looked at a broad array of possible future scenarios, while the second focused on a more detailed examination of the grid in 2030. The studies provided a wealth of information on possible future generation, demand, and transmission alternatives. However, at the conclusionmore » there were still unresolved questions and issues. The US Department of Energy, which had sponsored the study, asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers and others who worked on the project to conduct an additional study of the data to provide further insights for stakeholders and the industry. This report documents the second part of that follow-on study [an earlier report (Hadley 2013) covered the first part, and a subsequent report will address the last part].« less

Perspectives on recycling centres and future developments.

PubMed

Engkvist, I-L; Eklund, J; Krook, J; Björkman, M; Sundin, E

2016-11-01

The overall aim of this paper is to draw combined, all-embracing conclusions based on a long-term multidisciplinary research programme on recycling centres in Sweden, focussing on working conditions, environment and system performance. A second aim is to give recommendations for their development of new and existing recycling centres and to discuss implications for the future design and organisation. Several opportunities for improvement of recycling centres were identified, such as design, layout, ease with which users could sort their waste, the work environment, conflicting needs and goals within the industry, and industrialisation. Combining all results from the research, which consisted of different disciplinary aspects, made it possible to analyse and elucidate their interrelations. Waste sorting quality was recognized as the most prominent improvement field in the recycling centre system. The research identified the importance of involving stakeholders with different perspectives when planning a recycling centre in order to get functionality and high performance. Practical proposals of how to plan and build recycling centres are given in a detailed checklist. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Linac Coherent Light Source: Recent Developments and Future Plans

DOE PAGES

Schoenlein, R. W.; Boutet, S.; Minitti, M. P.; ...

2017-08-18

The development of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has launched a new era in X-ray science by providing ultrafast coherent X-ray pulses with a peak brightness that is approximately one billion times higher than previous X-ray sources. The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) facility at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, the world’s first hard X-ray FEL, has already demonstrated a tremendous scientific impact across broad areas of science. Here in this paper, a few of the more recent representative highlights from LCLS are presented in the areas of atomic, molecular, and optical science; chemistry; condensed matter physics; matter in extreme conditions;more » and biology. This paper also outlines the near term upgrade (LCLS-II) and motivating science opportunities for ultrafast X-rays in the 0.25–5 keV range at repetition rates up to 1 MHz. Future plans to extend the X-ray energy reach to beyond 13 keV (<1 Å) at high repetition rate (LCLS-II-HE) are envisioned, motivated by compelling new science of structural dynamics at the atomic scale.« less

Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.

2014-08-01

The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.

Planning for the Future: The Leadership Role of the State Library Agencies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fletcher, Patricia T.

1990-01-01

Discusses the strategic planning role of state library agencies for information resources management (IRM) and presents data from a study on IRM in the 50 state governments. Trends in state plans are identified, the strategic planning process is examined, and challenges for the future are discussed. (20 references) (LRW)

Wired for the Future: Developing Your Library Technology Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayo, Diane; Nelson, Sandra

A technology plan provides a blueprint against which to measure new technologies and applications, assess future needs, and allocate resources to balance technology with the needs of users and staff. This book is a comprehensive and practical guide for librarians preparing a technology plan. The book is divided into five planning steps, each of…

Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept and Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmes, Bruce J.; Durham, Michael H.; Tarry, Scott E.

2005-01-01

This paper summarizes both the vision and the early public-private collaborative research for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS). The paper outlines an operational definition of SATS, describes how SATS conceptually differs from current air transportation capabilities, introduces four SATS operating capabilities, and explains the relation between the SATS operating capabilities and the potential for expanded air mobility. The SATS technology roadmap encompasses on-demand, widely distributed, point-to-point air mobility, through hired-pilot modes in the nearer-term, and through self-operated user modes in the farther-term. The nearer-term concept is based on aircraft and airspace technologies being developed to make the use of smaller, more widely distributed community reliever and general aviation airports and their runways more useful in more weather conditions, in commercial hired-pilot service modes. The farther-term vision is based on technical concepts that could be developed to simplify or automate many of the operational functions in the aircraft and the airspace for meeting future public transportation needs, in personally operated modes. NASA technology strategies form a roadmap between the nearer-term concept and the farther-term vision. This paper outlines a roadmap for scalable, on-demand, distributed air mobility technologies for vehicle and airspace systems. The audiences for the paper include General Aviation manufacturers, small aircraft transportation service providers, the flight training industry, airport and transportation authorities at the Federal, state and local levels, and organizations involved in planning for future National Airspace System advancements.

A mission planning concept and mission planning system for future manned space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickler, Martin

1994-01-01

The international character of future manned space missions will compel the involvement of several international space agencies in mission planning tasks. Additionally, the community of users requires a higher degree of freedom for experiment planning. Both of these problems can be solved by a decentralized mission planning concept using the so-called 'envelope method,' by which resources are allocated to users by distributing resource profiles ('envelopes') which define resource availabilities at specified times. The users are essentially free to plan their activities independently of each other, provided that they stay within their envelopes. The new developments were aimed at refining the existing vague envelope concept into a practical method for decentralized planning. Selected critical functions were exercised by planning an example, founded on experience acquired by the MSCC during the Spacelab missions D-1 and D-2. The main activity regarding future mission planning tasks was to improve the existing MSCC mission planning system, using new techniques. An electronic interface was developed to collect all formalized user inputs more effectively, along with an 'envelope generator' for generation and manipulation of the resource envelopes. The existing scheduler and its data base were successfully replaced by an artificial intelligence scheduler. This scheduler is not only capable of handling resource envelopes, but also uses a new technology based on neuronal networks. Therefore, it is very well suited to solve the future scheduling problems more efficiently. This prototype mission planning system was used to gain new practical experience with decentralized mission planning, using the envelope method. In future steps, software tools will be optimized, and all data management planning activities will be embedded into the scheduler.

Near-field measurement facility plans at Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, R. G.

1983-01-01

The direction of future antenna technology will be toward antennas which are large, both physically and electrically, will operate at frequencies up to 60 GHz, and are non-reciprocal and complex, implementing multiple-beam and scanning beam concepts and monolithic semiconductor devices and techniques. The acquisition of accurate antenna performance measurements is a critical part of the advanced antenna research program and represents a substantial antenna measurement technology challenge, considering the special characteristics of future spacecraft communications antennas. Comparison of various antenna testing techniques and their relative advantages and disadvantages shows that the near-field approach is necessary to meet immediate and long-term testing requirements. The LeRC facilities, the 22 ft x 22 ft horizontal antenna boresight planar scanner and the 60 ft x 60 ft vertical antenna boresight plant scanner (with a 60 GHz frequency and D/lamdba = 3000 electrical size capabilities), will meet future program testing requirements.

Development of Carbon Dioxide Removal Systems for Advanced Exploration Systems 2016-2017

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knox, James C.; Peters, Warren; Cmarik, Gregory E.; Watson, David; Coker, Robert; Miller, Lee

2017-01-01

A long-term goal for NASA is to enable crewed missions to Mars: first to the vicinity of Mars, and then to the Mars surface. These missions present new challenges for all aspects of spacecraft design in comparison with the International Space Station, as resupply is unavailable in the transit phase, and early return is not possible. Additionally, mass, power, and volume must be minimized for all phases to reduce propulsion needs. In this paper we describe current and planned developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions. Activities are also described that apply to both the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA and the design of life support systems for future missions.

Problems experienced and envisioned for dynamical physical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, R. S.

1985-01-01

The use of high performance systems, which is the trend of future space systems, naturally leads to lower margins and a higher sensitivity to parameter variations and, therefore, more problems of dynamical physical systems. To circumvent dynamic problems of these systems, appropriate design, verification analysis, and tests must be planned and conducted. The basic design goal is to define the problem before it occurs. The primary approach for meeting this goal is a good understanding and reviewing of the problems experienced in the past in terms of the system under design. This paper reviews many of the dynamic problems experienced in space systems design and operation, categorizes them as to causes, and envisions future program implications, developing recommendations for analysis and test approaches.

Spaceborne studies of ocean circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patzert, W. C.

1984-01-01

The history and near-term future of ocean remote sensing to study ocean circulation are examined. Seasat provided the first-ever global data sets of sea surface topography (altimeter) and marine winds (scatterometer) and laid the foundation for the next generation of satellite missions planned for the late 1980s. The future missions are the next generation of altimeter and scatterometer to be flown aboard TOPEX (TOPography EXperiment) and NROSS (Navy Remote Sensing System), respectively. The data from these satellites will be coordinated with measurements made at sea to determine the driving forces of ocean circulation and to study the oceans' role in climate variability. The significance of such studies to such matters as climatic changes, fisheries, commerce, waste disposal, and national defense is noted.

The tobacco endgame: a qualitative review and synthesis

PubMed Central

McDaniel, Patricia A; Smith, Elizabeth A; Malone, Ruth E

2016-01-01

The tobacco endgame concept reorients discussion away from the persistent control of tobacco toward plans for ending the tobacco epidemic, and envisions a tobacco-free future. A variety of policy approaches have been proposed, with many offered prior to the introduction of the unifying term ‘endgame’. We conducted a qualitative synthesis of the literature on tobacco control endgames, and drew on media accounts and discussion of analogous ideas for illustrative purposes. We identified proposals focused on the product, user, market/supply or larger institutional structures. Research on public support for these proposals was limited, but suggestive of some public appetite for endgame ideas. Advocates should be encouraged to explore new policy options and consider the goal of a tobacco-free future. PMID:26320149

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Relating Climate Change Risks to Water Supply Planning Assumptions: Recent Applications by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.

2009-12-01

Presentation highlights recent methods carried by Reclamation to incorporate climate change and variability information into water supply assumptions for longer-term planning. Presentation also highlights limitations of these methods, and possible method adjustments that might be made to address these limitations. Reclamation was established more than one hundred years ago with a mission centered on the construction of irrigation and hydropower projects in the Western United States. Reclamation’s mission has evolved since its creation to include other activities, including municipal and industrial water supply projects, ecosystem restoration, and the protection and management of water supplies. Reclamation continues to explore ways to better address mission objectives, often considering proposals to develop new infrastructure and/or modify long-term criteria for operations. Such studies typically feature operations analysis to disclose benefits and effects of a given proposal, which are sensitive to assumptions made about future water supplies, water demands, and operating constraints. Development of these assumptions requires consideration to more fundamental future drivers such as land use, demographics, and climate. On the matter of establishing planning assumptions for water supplies under climate change, Reclamation has applied several methods. This presentation highlights two activities where the first focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate frequencies and the second focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate period-statistics. The first activity took place in the Colorado River Basin where there was interest in the interarrival possibilities of drought and surplus events of varying severity relevant to proposals on new criteria for handling lower basin shortages. The second activity occurred in California’s Central Valley where stakeholders were interested in how projected climate change possibilities translated into changes in hydrologic and water supply statistics relevant to a long-term federal Endangered Species Act consultation. Projected climate change possibilities were characterized by surveying a large ensemble of climate projections for change in period climate-statistics and then selecting a small set of projections featuring a bracketing set of period-changes relative to the those from the complete ensemble. Although both methods served the needs of their respective planning activities, each has limited applicability for other planning activities. First, each method addresses only one climate change aspect and not the other. Some planning activities may need to consider potential changes in both period-statistics and frequencies. Second, neither method addresses CMIP3 projected changes in climate variability. The first method bases frequency possibilities on historical information while the second method only surveys CMIP3 projections for change in period-mean and then superimposes those changes on historical variability. Third, artifacts of CMIP3 design lead to interpretation challenges when implementing the second method (e.g., inconsistent projection initialization, model-dependent expressions of multi-decadal variability). Presentation summarizes these issues and also potential method adjustments to address them when defining planning assumptions for water supplies.

A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweet, W.

2011-12-01

In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near-term superposition of non-tidal residuals and large tide-range changes (i.e., spring tides). - Identifying important regional physical forcing mechanisms (both meteorological and oceanographic) to help explain the conditions - Displaying near-real time and archived information to establish a clear and direct communication with a community in regards to its past, present and future flood patterns. An example is presented for Charleston, SC, an area with little remaining free board in terms of its downtown infrastructure. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues multiple flood watches for Charleston every year that largely result from astronomical (earth-sun-moon system) tide forcing alone and NOAA's Coastal Services Center (CSC) often receives inquiries regarding downtown flooding during sunny, nondescript days. This project will allow for a deeper appreciation of surge-to-seasonal patterns of variability and compliment a community's living memory of sea level elevations/impacts needed to motivate societal adaptation as sea levels rise. Coordination with NWS's local Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO) is planned and the project will expand to other incident-prone regions once demonstration is accepted.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

Applying Psychological Theories to Promote Long-Term Maintenance of Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Joseph, Rodney P.; Daniel, Casey L.; Thind, Herpreet; Benitez, Tanya J.; Pekmezi, Dori

2014-01-01

Behavioral health theory provides a framework for researchers to design, implement, and evaluate the effects of health promotion programs. However, limited research has examined theories used in interventions to promote long-term maintenance of health behaviors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the available literature and identify prominent behavioral health theories used in intervention research to promote maintenance of health behaviors. We reviewed theories used in intervention research assessing long-term maintenance (≥ 6 months post-intervention) of physical activity, weight loss, and smoking cessation. Five prominent behavioral theories were referenced by the 34 studies included in the review: Self-Determination Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Transtheoretical Model, and Social Ecological Model. Descriptions and examples of applications of these theories are provided. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:28217036

NASA's progress in nuclear electric propulsion technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, James R.; Doherty, Michael P.; Peecook, Keith M.

1993-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established a requirement for Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) technology for robotic planetary science mission applications with potential future evolution to systems for piloted Mars vehicles. To advance the readiness of NEP for these challenging missions, a near-term flight demonstration on a meaningful robotic science mission is very desirable. The requirements for both near-term and outer planet science missions are briefly reviewed, and the near-term baseline system established under a recent study jointly conducted by the Lewis Research Center (LeRC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is described. Technology issues are identified where work is needed to establish the technology for the baseline system, and technology opportunities which could provide improvement beyond baseline capabilities are discussed. Finally, the plan to develop this promising technology is presented and discussed.

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Software reuse issues affecting AdaNET

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcbride, John G.

1989-01-01

The AdaNet program is reviewing its long-term goals and strategies. A significant concern is whether current AdaNet plans adequately address the major strategic issues of software reuse technology. The major reuse issues of providing AdaNet services that should be addressed as part of future AdaNet development are identified and reviewed. Before significant development proceeds, a plan should be developed to resolve the aforementioned issues. This plan should also specify a detailed approach to develop AdaNet. A three phased strategy is recommended. The first phase would consist of requirements analysis and produce an AdaNet system requirements specification. It would consider the requirements of AdaNet in terms of mission needs, commercial realities, and administrative policies affecting development, and the experience of AdaNet and other projects promoting the transfer software engineering technology. Specifically, requirements analysis would be performed to better understand the requirements for AdaNet functions. The second phase would provide a detailed design of the system. The AdaNet should be designed with emphasis on the use of existing technology readily available to the AdaNet program. A number of reuse products are available upon which AdaNet could be based. This would significantly reduce the risk and cost of providing an AdaNet system. Once a design was developed, implementation would proceed in the third phase.

Operation and planning of coordinated natural gas and electricity infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaping

Natural gas is becoming rapidly the optimal choice for fueling new generating units in electric power system driven by abundant natural gas supplies and environmental regulations that are expected to cause coal-fired generation retirements. The growing reliance on natural gas as a dominant fuel for electricity generation throughout North America has brought the interaction between the natural gas and power grids into sharp focus. The primary concern and motivation of this research is to address the emerging interdependency issues faced by the electric power and natural gas industry. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the interactions between the two systems regarding the short-term operation and long-term infrastructure planning. Natural gas and renewable energy appear complementary in many respects regarding fuel price and availability, environmental impact, resource distribution and dispatchability. In addition, demand response has also held the promise of making a significant contribution to enhance system operations by providing incentives to customers for a more flat load profile. We investigated the coordination between natural gas-fired generation and prevailing nontraditional resources including renewable energy, demand response so as to provide economical options for optimizing the short-term scheduling with the intense natural gas delivery constraints. As the amount and dispatch of gas-fired generation increases, the long-term interdependency issue is whether there is adequate pipeline capacity to provide sufficient gas to natural gas-fired generation during the entire planning horizon while it is widely used outside the power sector. This thesis developed a co-optimization planning model by incorporating the natural gas transportation system into the multi-year resource and transmission system planning problem. This consideration would provide a more comprehensive decision for the investment and accurate assessment for system adequacy and reliability. With the growing reliance on natural gas and widespread utilization of highly efficient combined heat and power (CHP), it is also questionable that whether the independent design of infrastructures can meet potential challenges of future energy supply. To address this issue, this thesis proposed an optimization framework for a sustainable multiple energy system expansion planning based on an energy hub model while considering the energy efficiency, emission and reliability performance. In addition, we introduced the probabilistic reliability evaluation and flow network analysis into the multiple energy system design in order to obtain an optimal and reliable network topology.

Creating a future for nursing through interactive planning at the bedside.

PubMed

Foust, J B

1994-01-01

Interactive planning is introduced as an approach to planning amidst change that may be useful in clinical practice. The underlying principles and unique characteristics of interactive planning are presented. In addition, clinical studies suggesting its inherent presence in nursing practice are identified. Effective care planning as a developmental process provides nurses with a favorable opportunity to both contribute to individualized patient care and create our own professional future.

From Sky to Archive: Long Term Management of Sky Survey Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darch, Peter T.; Sands, Ashley E.; Borgman, Christine; Golshan, Milena S.; Traweek, Sharon

2017-01-01

Sky survey data may remain scientifically valuable long beyond the end of a survey’s operational period, both for continuing inquiry and for calibrating and testing instruments for subsequent generations of surveys. Astronomy infrastructure has many stakeholders, including those concerned with data management. Research libraries are increasingly partnering with scholars to sustain access to data.The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) was among the first major scientific projects to partner with libraries in this way, embarking on a data transfer process with two university libraries. We report on a qualitative case study of this process.Ideally, long-term sustainability of sky survey data would be a key part of planning and construction, but rarely does this occur. Teams are under pressure to deliver a project on time and on budget that produces high-quality data during its operational period, leaving few resources available to plan long-term data management. The difficulty of planning is further compounded by the complexity of predicting circumstances and needs of the astronomy community in future decades. SDSS team members regarded libraries, long-lived institutions concerned with access to scholarship, as a potential solution to long-term data sustainability.As the SDSS data transfer was the first of this scale attempted - 160 TB of data - astronomers and library staff were faced with scoping the range of activities involved. They spent two years planning this five-year process. While successful overall as demonstration projects, the libraries encountered many obstacles. We found all parties experienced difficulty in articulating their notions of “scientific data,” “archiving,” “serving,” and “providing access” to the datasets. Activities and interpretations of the data transfer process varied by institutional motivations for participation and by available infrastructure. We conclude several, rather than a single, “library solutions” for long-term data management should be considered. Life cycle models popular in the library community are insufficient to conceptualize data management at this scale. We also identify institutional and policy challenges for curating large scientific datasets.

Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

PubMed

Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A; Gensheimer, Kathleen F; Cox, Nancy J; Redd, Stephen C

2013-06-01

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

Nonstationarity RC Workshop Report: Nonstationary Weather Patterns and Extreme Events Informing Design and Planning for Long-Lived Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

magnitude, intensity, and seasonality of climate. For infrastructure projects, relevant design life often exceeds 30 years—a period of time of...uncertainty about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design purposes. Information...about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design , and for assessing future operational

Wind Shear radar program future plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Roy E.

1991-01-01

The status of the Windshear Radar Program at the Collins Air Transport Division of Rockwell International is given in viewgraph form. Topics covered include goals, modifications to the WXR-700 system, flight test plans, technical approaches, design considerations, system considerations, certification, and future plans.

Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

2018-01-01

Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Short-term Hydropower Reservoir Operations in Chile's Central Interconnected System: Tradeoffs between Hydrologic Alteration and Economic Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivares, M. A.

2011-12-01

Hydropower accounts for about 50% of the installed capacity in Chile's Central Interconnected System (CIS) and new developments are envisioned in the near future. Large projects involving reservoirs are perceived negatively by the general public. In terms of operations, hydropower scheduling takes place at monthly, weekly, daily and hourly intervals, and operations at each level affect different environmental processes. Due to its ability to quickly and inexpensively respond to short-term changes in demand, hydropower reservoirs often are operated to provide power during periods of peak demand. This operational scheme, known as hydropeaking, changes the hydrologic regime by altering the rate and frequency of changes in flow magnitude on short time scales. To mitigate impacts on downstream ecosystems, operational constraints -typically minimum instream flows and maximum ramping rates- are imposed on hydropower plants. These operational restrictions limit reduce operational flexibility and can reduce the economic value of energy generation by imposing additional costs on the operation of interconnected power systems. Methods to predict the degree of hydrologic alteration rely on statistical analyses of instream flow time series. Typically, studies on hydrologic alteration use historical operational records for comparison between pre- and post-dam conditions. Efforts to assess hydrologic alteration based on future operational schemes of reservoirs are scarce. This study couples two existing models: a mid-term operations planning and a short-term economic dispatch to simulate short-term hydropower reservoir operations under different future scenarios. Scenarios of possible future configurations of the Chilean CIS are defined with emphasis on the introduction of non-conventional renewables (particularly wind energy) and large hydropower projects in Patagonia. Both models try to reproduce the actual decision making process in the Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS). Chile's CIS is structured as a mandatory pool with audited costs and therefore the economic dispatch can be formulated as a cost minimization problem. Consequently, hydropower reservoir operations are controlled by the ISO. Reservoirs with the most potential to cause short-term hydrologic alteration were identified from existing operational records. These records have also been used to validate our simulated operations. Results in terms of daily and subdaily hydrologic alteration as well as the economic performance of the CIS are presented for alternative energy matrix scenarios. Tradeoff curves representing the compromise between indicators of hydrologic alteration and economic indicators of the CIS operation are developed.

Planning performance in schizophrenia patients: a meta-analysis of the influence of task difficulty and clinical and sociodemographic variables.

PubMed

Knapp, F; Viechtbauer, W; Leonhart, R; Nitschke, K; Kaller, C P

2017-08-01

Despite a large body of research on planning performance in adult schizophrenia patients, results of individual studies are equivocal, suggesting either no, moderate or severe planning deficits. This meta-analysis therefore aimed to quantify planning deficits in schizophrenia and to examine potential sources of the heterogeneity seen in the literature. The meta-analysis comprised outcomes of planning accuracy of 1377 schizophrenia patients and 1477 healthy controls from 31 different studies which assessed planning performance using tower tasks such as the Tower of London, the Tower of Hanoi and the Stockings of Cambridge. A meta-regression analysis was applied to assess the influence of potential moderator variables (i.e. sociodemographic and clinical variables as well as task difficulty). The findings indeed demonstrated a planning deficit in schizophrenia patients (mean effect size: ; 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.78) that was moderated by task difficulty in terms of the minimum number of moves required for a solution. The results did not reveal any significant relationship between the extent of planning deficits and sociodemographic or clinical variables. The current results provide first meta-analytic evidence for the commonly assumed impairments of planning performance in schizophrenia. Deficits are more likely to become manifest in problem items with higher demands on planning ahead, which may at least partly explain the heterogeneity of previous findings. As only a small fraction of studies reported coherent information on sample characteristics, future meta-analyses would benefit from more systematic reports on those variables.

Reducing the Risk of Human Missions to Mars Through Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Bret G.

2007-07-01

During the summer of 2002 the NASA Deputy Administrator charted an internal NASA planning group to develop the rationale for exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. This team, termed the Exploration Blueprint, performed architecture analyses to develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps beyond Low-Earth Orbit through the human exploration of Mars. The previous NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) activities laid the foundation and framework for development of NASA s Integrated Space Plan. The reference missions resulting from the analysis performed by the Exploration Blueprint team formed the basis for requirement definition, systems development, technology roadmapping, and risk assessments for future human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. Emphasis was placed on developing recommendations on what could be done now to effect future exploration activities. The Exploration Blueprint team embraced the Stepping Stone approach to exploration where human and robotic activities are conducted through progressive expansion outward beyond low- Earth orbit. Results from this study produced a long-term strategy for exploration with near-term implementation plans, program recommendations, and technology investments. Specific results included the development of a common exploration crew vehicle concept, a unified space nuclear strategy, focused bioastronautics research objectives, and an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy. Recommendations from the Exploration Blueprint included the endorsement of the Nuclear Systems Initiative, augmentation of the bioastronautics research, a focused space transportation program including heavy-lift launch and a common exploration vehicle design for ISS and exploration missions, as well as an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy for Mars. Following the results of the Exploration Blueprint study, the NASA Administrator has asked for a recommendation by June, 2003 on the next steps in human and robotic exploration in order to put into context an updated Integrated Space Transportation Plan (post- Columbia) and guide Agency planning. NASA was on the verge of committing significant funding in programs that would be better served if longer term goals were better known including the Orbital Space Plane, research on the ISS, National Aerospace Initiative, Shuttle Life Extension Program, Project Prometheus, as well as a wide range of technology development throughout the Agency. Much of the focus during this period was on integrating the results from the previous studies into more concrete implementation strategies in order to understand the relationship between NASA programs, timing, and resulting budgetary implications. This resulted in an integrated approach including lunar surface operations to retire risk of human Mars missions, maximum use of common and modular systems including what was termed the exploration transfer vehicle, Earth orbit and lunar surface demonstrations of long-life systems, collaboration of human and robotic missions to vastly increase mission return, and high-efficiency transportation systems (nuclear) for deep-space transportation and power. The data provided in this summary viewgraph presentation was developed to begin to address one of the key elements of the emerging implementation strategy, namely how lunar missions help retire risk of human missions to Mars. During this process the scope of the activity broadened into the issue of how testing in general, in various venues including the Moon, can help reduce the risk for Mars missions.

Reducing the Risk of Human Missions to Mars Through Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Bret G.

2007-01-01

During the summer of 2002 the NASA Deputy Administrator charted an internal NASA planning group to develop the rationale for exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. This team, termed the Exploration Blueprint, performed architecture analyses to develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps beyond Low-Earth Orbit through the human exploration of Mars. The previous NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) activities laid the foundation and framework for development of NASA s Integrated Space Plan. The reference missions resulting from the analysis performed by the Exploration Blueprint team formed the basis for requirement definition, systems development, technology roadmapping, and risk assessments for future human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. Emphasis was placed on developing recommendations on what could be done now to effect future exploration activities. The Exploration Blueprint team embraced the Stepping Stone approach to exploration where human and robotic activities are conducted through progressive expansion outward beyond low- Earth orbit. Results from this study produced a long-term strategy for exploration with near-term implementation plans, program recommendations, and technology investments. Specific results included the development of a common exploration crew vehicle concept, a unified space nuclear strategy, focused bioastronautics research objectives, and an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy. Recommendations from the Exploration Blueprint included the endorsement of the Nuclear Systems Initiative, augmentation of the bioastronautics research, a focused space transportation program including heavy-lift launch and a common exploration vehicle design for ISS and exploration missions, as well as an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy for Mars. Following the results of the Exploration Blueprint study, the NASA Administrator has asked for a recommendation by June, 2003 on the next steps in human and robotic exploration in order to put into context an updated Integrated Space Transportation Plan (post- Columbia) and guide Agency planning. NASA was on the verge of committing significant funding in programs that would be better served if longer term goals were better known including the Orbital Space Plane, research on the ISS, National Aerospace Initiative, Shuttle Life Extension Program, Project Prometheus, as well as a wide range of technology development throughout the Agency. Much of the focus during this period was on integrating the results from the previous studies into more concrete implementation strategies in order to understand the relationship between NASA programs, timing, and resulting budgetary implications. This resulted in an integrated approach including lunar surface operations to retire risk of human Mars missions, maximum use of common and modular systems including what was termed the exploration transfer vehicle, Earth orbit and lunar surface demonstrations of long-life systems, collaboration of human and robotic missions to vastly increase mission return, and high-efficiency transportation systems (nuclear) for deep-space transportation and power. The data provided in this summary viewgraph presentation was developed to begin to address one of the key elements of the emerging implementation strategy, namely how lunar missions help retire risk of human missions to Mars. During this process the scope of the activity broadened into the issue of how testing in general, in various venues including the Moon, can help reduce the risk for Mars missions.

Air Force Research Laboratory space technology strategic investment model: analysis and outcomes for warfighter capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preiss, Bruce; Greene, Lloyd; Kriebel, Jamie; Wasson, Robert

2006-05-01

The Air Force Research Laboratory utilizes a value model as a primary input for space technology planning and budgeting. The Space Sector at AFRL headquarters manages space technology investment across all the geographically disparate technical directorates and ensures that integrated planning is achieved across the space community. The space investment portfolio must ultimately balance near, mid, and far-term investments across all the critical space mission areas. Investment levels and growth areas can always be identified by a typical capability analysis or gap analysis, but the value model approach goes one step deeper and helps identify the potential payoff of technology investments by linking the technology directly to an existing or potential concept. The value of the technology is then viewed from the enabling performance perspective of the concept that ultimately fulfills the Air Force mission. The process of linking space technologies to future concepts and technology roadmaps will be reviewed in this paper, along with representative results from this planning cycle. The initial assumptions in this process will be identified along with the strengths and weaknesses of this planning methodology.

Reference condition approach to restoration planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nestler, J.M.; Theiling, C.H.; Lubinski, S.J.; Smith, D.L.

2010-01-01

Ecosystem restoration planning requires quantitative rigor to evaluate alternatives, define end states, report progress and perform environmental benefits analysis (EBA). Unfortunately, existing planning frameworks are, at best, semi-quantitative. In this paper, we: (1) describe a quantitative restoration planning approach based on a comprehensive, but simple mathematical framework that can be used to effectively apply knowledge and evaluate alternatives, (2) use the approach to derive a simple but precisely defined lexicon based on the reference condition concept and allied terms and (3) illustrate the approach with an example from the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) using hydrologic indicators. The approach supports the development of a scaleable restoration strategy that, in theory, can be expanded to ecosystem characteristics such as hydraulics, geomorphology, habitat and biodiversity. We identify three reference condition types, best achievable condition (A BAC), measured magnitude (MMi which can be determined at one or many times and places) and desired future condition (ADFC) that, when used with the mathematical framework, provide a complete system of accounts useful for goal-oriented system-level management and restoration. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Indoor Tanning within UK Young Adults: An Extended Theory of Planned Behaviour Approach.

PubMed

Dodd, Lorna J; Forshaw, Mark J; Williams, Stella

2013-01-01

The indoor tanning industry poses a long-term public health risk. Despite the adverse health effects, indoor tanning seems to be gaining considerable popularity. The study examined indoor tanning intentions and behaviour within UK young adults using an extended theory of planned behaviour model, which included variables on "appearance reasons to tan," "perceived susceptibility to damaging appearance," "perceived susceptibility to health consequences," and "tanning knowledge." The model was successful in predicting indoor tanning intentions and behaviour (explained 17% and 71%, resp.). An interesting outcome was the magnitude of the variable "appearance reasons to tan." A current tanned appearance therefore seemed to outweigh any adverse future appearance or health consequences caused by indoor tanning. Appearance-focused interventions to reduce such behaviour may now prove to be efficacious within a UK sample.

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Gornitz, Vivien; Bader, Daniel A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Field Scale Optimization for Long-Term Sustainability of Best Management Practices in Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, A.; Babbar-Sebens, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural and urban land use changes have led to disruption of natural hydrologic processes and impairment of streams and rivers. Multiple previous studies have evaluated Best Management Practices (BMPs) as means for restoring existing hydrologic conditions and reducing impairment of water resources. However, planning of these practices have relied on watershed scale hydrologic models for identifying locations and types of practices at scales much coarser than the actual field scale, where landowners have to plan, design and implement the practices. Field scale hydrologic modeling provides means for identifying relationships between BMP type, spatial location, and the interaction between BMPs at a finer farm/field scale that is usually more relevant to the decision maker (i.e. the landowner). This study focuses on development of a simulation-optimization approach for field-scale planning of BMPs in the School Branch stream system of Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana, USA. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) tool is used as the field scale hydrologic model, and a multi-objective optimization algorithm is used to search for optimal alternatives. Multiple climate scenarios downscaled to the watershed-scale are used to test the long term performance of these alternatives and under extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness of these BMPs under multiple weather conditions are included within the simulation-optimization approach as a criteria/goal to assist landowners in identifying sustainable design of practices. The results from these scenarios will further enable efficient BMP planning for current and future usage.

Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Porter, J.; Sheer, D. P.; Pyke, G.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies more than 1 billion gallons of water per day to over 9 million customers. Recently, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. This presentation describes the technical structure of OST, including the underlying water supply and water quality models, data sources and database management, reservoir inflow forecasts, and the functionalities required to meet the needs of a diverse group of end users. OST is a major upgrade of DEP's current water supply - water quality model, developed to evaluate alternatives for controlling turbidity in NYC's Catskill reservoirs. While the current model relies on historical hydrologic and meteorological data, OST can be driven by forecasted future conditions. It will receive a variety of near-real-time data from a number of sources. OST will support two major types of simulations: long-term, for evaluating policy or infrastructure changes over an extended period of time; and short-term "position analysis" (PA) simulations, consisting of multiple short simulations, all starting from the same initial conditions. Typically, the starting conditions for a PA run will represent those for the current day and traces of forecasted hydrology will drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these simulations will be a distribution of future system states based on system operating rules and the range of input ensemble streamflow predictions. DEP managers will analyze the output distributions and make operation decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill. Currently, in the developmental stages of OST, forecasts are based on antecedent hydrologic conditions and are statistical in nature. The statistical algorithm is a relatively simple and versatile, but lacks short-term skill critical for water quality and spill management. To improve short-term skill, OST will ultimately operate with meteorologically driven hydrologic forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS). OST functionalities will support a wide range of DEP uses, including short term operational projections, outage planning and emergency management, operating rule development, and water supply planning. A core use of OST will be to inform reservoir management strategies to control and mitigate turbidity events while ensuring water supply reliability. OST will also allow DEP to manage its complex reservoir system to meet multiple objectives, including ecological flows, tailwater fisheries and recreational releases, and peak flow mitigation for downstream communities.

Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Field Sampling Plan for 2007

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

T. Haney

2007-07-31

This field sampling plan describes the field investigations planned for the Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Project at the Idaho National Laboratory Site in 2007. This plan and the Quality Assurance Project Plan for Waste Area Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and Removal Actions constitute the sampling and analysis plan supporting long-term ecological monitoring sampling in 2007. The data collected under this plan will become part of the long-term ecological monitoring data set that is being collected annually. The data will be used t determine the requirements for the subsequent long-term ecological monitoring. This plan guides the 2007more » investigations, including sampling, quality assurance, quality control, analytical procedures, and data management. As such, this plan will help to ensure that the resulting monitoring data will be scientifically valid, defensible, and of known and acceptable quality.« less

Educational Planning Past, Present and Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Gareth

1979-01-01

Two contrasting models of educational planning are described: the "technocratic," which dominated educational planning in the past; and the currently utilized "political," in which decisions emerge as the result of interplay between powerful pressure groups. The future is seen as likely to hold still greater conflict in…

Building Futurism into the Institution's Strategic Planning and Human Resource Development Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groff, Warren H.

A process for building futurism into the institution's strategic planning and human resource development model is described. It is an attempt to assist faculty and staff to understand the future and the formulation and revision of professional goals in relation to an image of the future. A conceptual framework about the changing nature of human…

Space Transportation System Payloads Data and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, J. D.; Craft, H. G., Jr.

1975-01-01

The background, current developments and future plans for the Space Transportation System Payloads Data and Analysis (SPDA) activities at Marshall Space Flight Center are reviewed. It is shown how the payload data bank and future planned activities will interface with the payloads community and Space Transportation System designers. The interfaces with the STS data base include NASA planning, international planning, payload design, shuttle design, user agencies planning and information, and OMB, Congress and others.

Sonar equations for planetary exploration.

PubMed

Ainslie, Michael A; Leighton, Timothy G

2016-08-01

The set of formulations commonly known as "the sonar equations" have for many decades been used to quantify the performance of sonar systems in terms of their ability to detect and localize objects submerged in seawater. The efficacy of the sonar equations, with individual terms evaluated in decibels, is well established in Earth's oceans. The sonar equations have been used in the past for missions to other planets and moons in the solar system, for which they are shown to be less suitable. While it would be preferable to undertake high-fidelity acoustical calculations to support planning, execution, and interpretation of acoustic data from planetary probes, to avoid possible errors for planned missions to such extraterrestrial bodies in future, doing so requires awareness of the pitfalls pointed out in this paper. There is a need to reexamine the assumptions, practices, and calibrations that work well for Earth to ensure that the sonar equations can be accurately applied in combination with the decibel to extraterrestrial scenarios. Examples are given for icy oceans such as exist on Europa and Ganymede, Titan's hydrocarbon lakes, and for the gaseous atmospheres of (for example) Jupiter and Venus.

Profile and professional expectations of medical students from 11 Latin American countries: the Red-LIRHUS project.

PubMed

Mayta-Tristán, Percy; Pereyra-Elías, Reneé; Montenegro-Idrogo, Juan José; Mejia, Christian R; Inga-Berrospi, Fiorella; Mezones-Holguín, Edward

2017-04-20

Latin America is undergoing a human resource crisis in health care in terms of labor shortage, misdistribution and poor orientation to primary care. Workforce data are needed to inform the planning of long-term strategies to address this problem. This study aimed to evaluate the academic and motivational profile, as well as the professional expectations, of Latin American medical students. We conducted an observational, cross-sectional, multi-country study evaluating medical students from 11 Spanish-speaking countries in 2011-2012. Motivations to study medicine, migration intentions, intent to enter postgraduate programs, and perceptions regarding primary care were evaluated via a self-administered questionnaire. Outcomes were measured with pilot-tested questions and previously validated scales. A total of 11,072 valid surveys from 63 medical schools were gathered and analyzed. This study describes the profile and expectations of the future workforce being trained in Latin America. The obtained information will be useful for governments and universities in planning strategies to improve their current state of affairs regarding human resources for health care professions.

Nurse manager succession planning: a concept analysis.

PubMed

Titzer, Jennifer L; Shirey, Maria R

2013-01-01

The current nursing leadership pipeline is inadequate and demands strategic succession planning methods. This article provides concept clarification regarding nurse manager succession planning. Attributes common to succession planning include organizational commitment and resource allocation, proactive and visionary leadership approach, and a mentoring and coaching environment. Strategic planning, current and future leadership analysis, high-potential identification, and leadership development are succession planning antecedents. Consequences of succession planning are improved leadership and organizational culture continuity, and increased leadership bench strength. Health care has failed to strategically plan for future leadership. Developing a strong nursing leadership pipeline requires deliberate and strategic succession planning. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Energy future Santa Cruz. A citizens plan for energy self-reliance: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, J.; Stayton, R.

A grassroots energy conservation project which involved more than 3100 residents of Santa Cruz, California, is discussed. Citizens attended forums and town meetings to suggest ideas for solving the community's energy problems. These ideas were then evaluated by the Energy Future Advisory Board and compiled into the Energy Future Plan. The plan covers such topics as new residences, residential retrofit, automobile efficiency, farm efficiency, commercial greenhouses, local food production, commercial efficiency, land use planning, energy eduction and financing, and solar, wind, and ocean energy. If the plan is successfully implemented, the energy that the community is projected to use in 1991 can be lowered by 24 to 35 percent.

Securing your financial future.

PubMed

Kachalia, Parag R

2009-04-01

Securing one's financial future requires dedication and planning. A clear plan must be implemented and continually re-examined to assure an individual remains on track to achieve this security. True success of the plan will be dependent upon taking the appropriate steps to protecting one's assets against unfortunate events along with building assets with a clear end goal in mind. This article will cover the fundamental steps an individual can take to secure their financial future.

Universal Access to HIV prevention, treatment and care: assessing the inclusion of human rights in international and national strategic plans

PubMed Central

Gruskin, Sofia; Tarantola, Daniel

2012-01-01

Rhetorical acknowledgment of the value of human rights for the AIDS response continues, yet practical application of human rights principles to national efforts appears to be increasingly deficient. We assess the ways in which international and national strategic plans and other core documents take into account the commitments made by countries to uphold human rights in their efforts towards achieving Universal Access. Key documents from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria (GFATM) and the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) were reviewed along with 14 national HIV strategic plans chosen for their illustration of the diversity of HIV epidemic patterns, levels of income and geographical location. Whereas human rights concepts overwhelmingly appeared in both international and national strategic documents, their translation into actionable terms or monitoring frameworks was weak, unspecific or absent. Future work should analyse strategic plans, plans of operation, budgets and actual implementation so that full advantage can be taken, not only of the moral and legal value of human rights, but also their instrumental value for achieving Universal Access. PMID:18641464

Preschool children adapt grasping movements to upcoming object manipulations: Evidence from a dial rotation task.

PubMed

Herbort, Oliver; Büschelberger, Juliane; Janczyk, Markus

2018-03-01

In adults, the motor plans for object-directed grasping movements reflects the anticipated requirements of intended future object manipulations. This prospective mode of planning has been termed second-order planning. Surprisingly, second-order planning is thought to be fully developed only by 10 years of age, when children master seemingly more complex motor skills. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that already 5- and 6-year-old children consistently use second-order planning but that this ability does not become apparent in tasks that are traditionally used to probe it. We asked 5- and 6-year-olds and adults to grasp and rotate a circular dial in a clockwise or counterclockwise direction. Although children's grasp selections were less consistent on an intra- and inter-individual level than adults' grasp selections, all children adjusted their grasps to the upcoming dial rotations. By contrast, in an also administered bar rotation task, only a subset of children adjusted their grasps to different bar rotations, thereby replicating previous results. The results indicate that 5- and 6-year-olds consistently use second-order planning in a dial rotation task, although this ability does not become apparent in bar rotation tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overview of NASA Magnet and Linear Alternator Research Efforts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Steven M.; Schwarze, Gene E.; Nieda, Janis M.

2005-01-01

The Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company, and NASA Glenn Research Center are developing a high-efficiency, 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for NASA Space Science missions. NASA Glenn is conducting in-house research on rare earth permanent magnets and on linear alternators to assist in developing a free-piston Stirling convertor for the SRG110 and for developing advanced technology. The permanent magnet research efforts include magnet characterization, short-term magnet aging tests, and long-term magnet aging tests. Linear alternator research efforts have begun just recently at GRC with the characterization of a moving iron type linear alternator using GRC's alternator test rig. This paper reports on the progress and future plans of GRC's magnet and linear alternator research efforts.

Overview of NASA Magnet and Linear Alternator Research Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Steven M.; Niedra, Janis M.; Schwarze, Gene E.

2005-02-01

The Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company, and NASA Glenn Research Center are developing a high-efficiency, 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for NASA Space Science missions. NASA Glenn is conducting in-house research on rare earth permanent magnets and on linear alternators to assist in developing a free-piston Stirling convertor for the SRG110 and for developing advanced technology. The permanent magnet research efforts include magnet characterization, short-term magnet aging tests, and long-term magnet aging tests. Linear alternator research efforts have begun just recently at GRC with the characterization of a moving iron type linear alternator using GRC's alternator test rig. This paper reports on the progress and future plans of GRC's magnet and linear alternator research efforts.

Extension of the IAU Metric to BE Considered for Inner Solar System Laser Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minazzoli, Olivier; Chauvineau, Bertrand

An increasing number of forthcoming spatial experiments will require a description of the solar system gravitational field including all the second order terms in the PN (Post-Newtonian) metric. This will be the case for missions planned or in project, like TIPO, ASTROD, LATOR. However, the solar system metric recommended by the IAU resolution B1.3, during its 24th general assembly in 2000, allows light propagation calculations until order 1.5 only. Hence, it is necessary to generalize this framework to include relevant contributing terms, which indeed are required for a great number of near-future interplanetary space missions. The present paper proposes such an extension for both General Relativity and Scalar-Tensor theories.

Safety Assessment for the Kozloduy National Disposal Facility in Bulgaria - 13507

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biurrun, E.; Haverkamp, B.; Lazaro, A.

2013-07-01

Due to the early decommissioning of four Water-Water Energy Reactors (WWER) 440-V230 reactors at the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) near the city of Kozloduy in Bulgaria, large amounts of low and intermediate radioactive waste will arise much earlier than initially scheduled. In or-der to manage the radioactive waste from the early decommissioning, Bulgaria has intensified its efforts to provide a near surface disposal facility at Radiana with the required capacity. To this end, a project was launched and assigned in international competition to a German-Spanish consortium to provide the complete technical planning including the preparation of the Intermediate Safety Assessmentmore » Report. Preliminary results of operational and long-term safety show compliance with the Bulgarian regulatory requirements. The long-term calculations carried out for the Radiana site are also a good example of how analysis of safety assessment results can be used for iterative improvements of the assessment by pointing out uncertainties and areas of future investigations to reduce such uncertainties in regard to the potential radiological impact. The computer model used to estimate the long-term evolution of the future repository at Radiana predicted a maximum total annual dose for members of the critical group, which is carried to approximately 80 % by C-14 for a specific ingestion pathway. Based on this result and the outcome of the sensitivity analysis, existing uncertainties were evaluated and areas for reasonable future investigations to reduce these uncertainties were identified. (authors)« less

The development of mentoring-relationship quality, future-planning style, and career goal setting among adolescents from a disadvantaged background.

PubMed

Lau, Wendy S Y; Zhou, Xiao-Chun; Lai, Simon M K

2017-03-01

Our behaviors are regulated by our perception of the future based on past experiences and knowledge. Children from a disadvantaged background might encounter obstacles more frequently when they plan their future. It is possible that a good relationship with an adult volunteer who provides assistance and guidance in the disadvantaged youth's development may facilitate their future-planning style and career goal setting. The present study investigated the role of a good mentoring relationship in promoting a disadvantaged youth's future-planning style and goal-setting ability. It focused on children from a disadvantaged background who participated in the Child Development Fund (CDF) in Hong Kong. In the study, 187 CDF participants (93 with high mentoring-relationship quality [MRQ] and 94 with low MRQ) and 208 comparison group participants were able to complete all four times of the survey. Repeated-measures analyses of covariance showed that Group main effects were observed for both future-planning style, F(2, 374) = 5.92, p < .01, and career goal-setting self-efficacy, F(2, 376) = 6.07, p < .01. Main Time effect was also found for the latter, F(3, 1128) = 7.99, p < .01. A significant Group × Time interaction effect was observed for future-planning style only, F(5.78, 1081.21) = 2.17, p < .05. Our results suggest that participants with high MRQ outperformed the comparison group in both future-planning style and career goal-setting self-efficacy. Multiple regression analyses revealed that mean MRQ score accounted for 3.9% (p < .01) of the variance in future-planning style and 4.1% (p < .01) of the variance in career goal-setting self-efficacy, supporting the role of a good mentoring relationship. Mentors have introduced new resources to the disadvantaged youths with high MRQ and have promoted the development of various skills through modeling. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Future of the Middle Rio Grande

Treesearch

Barbara A. Coe

1999-01-01

Because decisions made today about the Middle Rio Grande will influence future conditions, symposium participants - the stakeholders - collaborated in a final session to plan improvements for the watershed and river corridor. The result included several action plans focusing on desired future conditions and actions to achieve them.

Projecting Global Decadal Change in Water Supply for Strategic Planning: Window Size Sensitivity in CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luck, M.; Landis, M.; Gassert, F.; Luo, T.; Reig, P.

2013-12-01

Climate adaptation and strategic planning by states, corporations, and long-term investors require reliable information on the range of possible climatic changes. However, most decision makers are incapable of planning over the century-scale time horizons for which global climate models (GCMs) are developed. Even the most forward-looking actors rarely consider scenarios more than several decades into the future. The mismatch in model design and practical demands poses a challenge in extracting useful information on the decadal scale from global climate change models. Here, we explore options and limitations in generating decadal water supply change projections, as evaluated for the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct project's estimates of future change in water stress. Our approach uses an ensemble of six CMIP5 GCMs, selected to represent a broad lineage of models that best reproduce the mean and standard deviation of recent streamflow records in 18 large river basins, bias corrected to GLDAS-2.0 runoff. We examine sensitivity of point estimates of climate normal supply and water supply variability (interannual and seasonal) at the years 2020, 2030, and 2040, with a focus on using temporal windows of different lengths (11-, 21-, and 31-years) to generate the point estimates. With the aim of creating practical information for non-expert audiences, we will discuss the persistent question of 'how can we balance uncertainty and usability in designing scientific data products?'

Planning Considerations for a Mars Sample Receiving Facility: Summary and Interpretation of Three Design Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaty, David W.; Allen, Carlton C.; Bass, Deborah S.; Buxbaum, Karen L.; Campbell, James K.; Lindstrom, David J.; Miller, Sylvia L.; Papanastassiou, Dimitri A.

2009-10-01

It has been widely understood for many years that an essential component of a Mars Sample Return mission is a Sample Receiving Facility (SRF). The purpose of such a facility would be to take delivery of the flight hardware that lands on Earth, open the spacecraft and extract the sample container and samples, and conduct an agreed-upon test protocol, while ensuring strict containment and contamination control of the samples while in the SRF. Any samples that are found to be non-hazardous (or are rendered non-hazardous by sterilization) would then be transferred to long-term curation. Although the general concept of an SRF is relatively straightforward, there has been considerable discussion about implementation planning. The Mars Exploration Program carried out an analysis of the attributes of an SRF to establish its scope, including minimum size and functionality, budgetary requirements (capital cost, operating costs, cost profile), and development schedule. The approach was to arrange for three independent design studies, each led by an architectural design firm, and compare the results. While there were many design elements in common identified by each study team, there were significant differences in the way human operators were to interact with the systems. In aggregate, the design studies provided insight into the attributes of a future SRF and the complex factors to consider for future programmatic planning.

Planning considerations for a Mars Sample Receiving Facility: summary and interpretation of three design studies.

PubMed

Beaty, David W; Allen, Carlton C; Bass, Deborah S; Buxbaum, Karen L; Campbell, James K; Lindstrom, David J; Miller, Sylvia L; Papanastassiou, Dimitri A

2009-10-01

It has been widely understood for many years that an essential component of a Mars Sample Return mission is a Sample Receiving Facility (SRF). The purpose of such a facility would be to take delivery of the flight hardware that lands on Earth, open the spacecraft and extract the sample container and samples, and conduct an agreed-upon test protocol, while ensuring strict containment and contamination control of the samples while in the SRF. Any samples that are found to be non-hazardous (or are rendered non-hazardous by sterilization) would then be transferred to long-term curation. Although the general concept of an SRF is relatively straightforward, there has been considerable discussion about implementation planning. The Mars Exploration Program carried out an analysis of the attributes of an SRF to establish its scope, including minimum size and functionality, budgetary requirements (capital cost, operating costs, cost profile), and development schedule. The approach was to arrange for three independent design studies, each led by an architectural design firm, and compare the results. While there were many design elements in common identified by each study team, there were significant differences in the way human operators were to interact with the systems. In aggregate, the design studies provided insight into the attributes of a future SRF and the complex factors to consider for future programmatic planning.

Energy future Santa Cruz: A citizens' plan for energy self-reliance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, J.; Stayton, R.

The results of a grassroots energy conservation project which involved more than 3,100 residents of Santa Cruz, California, is discussed. Citizens attended forums and town meetings to suggest ideas for solving the community's energy problems. These ideas were then evaluated by the Energy Future Advisory Board and compiled into the Energy Future Plan. The energy plan covers such topics as new residences, residential retrofit, automobile efficiency, farm efficiency, commercial greenhouses, local food production, commercial efficiency, land use planning, energy education and financing, and solar, wind, and ocean energy. An energy implementation guide and glossary are included.

Future Orbital Power Systems Technology Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

NASA is actively involved in program planning for missions requiring several orders of magnitude, more energy than in the past. Therefore, a two-day symposium was held to review the technology requirements for future orbital power systems. The purpose of the meeting was to give leaders from government and industry a broad view of current government supported technology efforts and future program plans in space power. It provided a forum for discussion, through workshops, to comment on current and planned programs and to identify opportunities for technology investment. Several papers are presented to review the technology status and the planned programs.

76 FR 28493 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-17

... of ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, ProShares Short VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF, ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, ProShares Ultra VIX Mid- Term Futures ETF, ProShares UltraShort VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, and ProShares UltraShort VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF Under NYSE Arca Equities Rule...

Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

2015-10-01

Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.

2014-09-12

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressivemore » Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.« less

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

2014-09-01

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

Characterizing land processes in the biosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, J. D.; Tuyahov, A. J.

1984-01-01

NASA long-term planning for the satellite remote sensing of land areas is discussed from the perspective of a holistic interdisciplinary approach to the study of the biosphere. The earth is characterized as a biogeochemical system; the impact of human activity on this system is considered; and the primary scientific goals for their study are defined. Remote-sensing programs are seen as essential in gaining an improved understanding of energy budgets, the hydrological cycle, other biogeological cycles, and the coupling between these cycles, with the construction of a global data base and eventually the development of predictive simulation models which can be used to assess the impact of planned human activities. Current sensor development at NASA includes a multilinear array for the visible and IR and the L-band Shuttle Imaging Radar B, both to be flown on Shuttle missions in the near future; for the 1990s, a large essentially permanent man-tended interdisciplinary multisensor platform connected to an advanced data network is being planned.

Pensions, tax and the anaesthetist: significant implications for workforce planning.

PubMed

Pandit, J J

2016-08-01

This paper shows how recent tax changes to pensions (i.e. new lifetime and annual allowance contribution limits) mean that NHS consultants will need to adopt one of four rational strategies to work and financial planning. Two of those strategies (termed 'Earn Fast, Drop Out' and 'Never Enter') involve a break between work and pensions. The logical consequence of this break is that consultants may exercise options to maximise their total income, which in turn will result in less work within the NHS and more work in alternative higher paying (e.g. private) sectors. A third strategy ('Go Slow, Stay Low') also involves less-than-full-time NHS work. Only one option ('Do Nothing' as a result of the tax changes) has no effect. In short, the tax changes will predictably lead to future senior consultants devoting proportionately much less of their time to NHS work than before. The article discusses the important implications of this conclusion for NHS workforce planning. © 2016 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Observational evidence of a long-term increase in precipitation due to urbanization effects and its implications for sustainable urban living.

PubMed

Wai, K M; Wang, X M; Lin, T H; Wong, M S; Zeng, S K; He, N; Ng, E; Lau, K; Wang, D H

2017-12-01

Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced Exploration Systems Water Architecture Study Interim Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sargusingh, Miriam J.

2013-01-01

The mission of the Advanced Exploration System (AES) Water Recovery Project (WRP) is to develop advanced water recovery systems that enable NASA human exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The primary objective of the AES WRP is to develop water recovery technologies critical to near-term missions beyond LEO. The secondary objective is to continue to advance mid-readiness-level technologies to support future NASA missions. An effort is being undertaken to establish the architecture for the AES Water Recovery System (WRS) that meets both near- and long-term objectives. The resultant architecture will be used to guide future technical planning, establish a baseline development roadmap for technology infusion, and establish baseline assumptions for integrated ground and on-orbit Environmental Control and Life Support Systems definition. This study is being performed in three phases. Phase I established the scope of the study through definition of the mission requirements and constraints, as well as identifying all possible WRS configurations that meet the mission requirements. Phase II focused on the near-term space exploration objectives by establishing an International Space Station-derived reference schematic for long-duration (>180 day) in-space habitation. Phase III will focus on the long-term space exploration objectives, trading the viable WRS configurations identified in Phase I to identify the ideal exploration WRS. The results of Phases I and II are discussed in this paper.

AES Water Architecture Study Interim Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarguisingh, Miriam J.

2012-01-01

The mission of the Advanced Exploration System (AES) Water Recovery Project (WRP) is to develop advanced water recovery systems in order to enable NASA human exploration missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO). The primary objective of the AES WRP is to develop water recovery technologies critical to near term missions beyond LEO. The secondary objective is to continue to advance mid-readiness level technologies to support future NASA missions. An effort is being undertaken to establish the architecture for the AES Water Recovery System (WRS) that meets both near and long term objectives. The resultant architecture will be used to guide future technical planning, establish a baseline development roadmap for technology infusion, and establish baseline assumptions for integrated ground and on-orbit environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) definition. This study is being performed in three phases. Phase I of this study established the scope of the study through definition of the mission requirements and constraints, as well as indentifying all possible WRS configurations that meet the mission requirements. Phase II of this study focused on the near term space exploration objectives by establishing an ISS-derived reference schematic for long-duration (>180 day) in-space habitation. Phase III will focus on the long term space exploration objectives, trading the viable WRS configurations identified in Phase I to identify the ideal exploration WRS. The results of Phases I and II are discussed in this paper.

Strategic Planning for Independent Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Susan C.

This manual is intended to serve independent schools beginning strategic planning methods. Chapter 1, "The Case for Strategic Planning," suggests replacing the term "long range planning" with the term "strategic planning," which emphasizes change. The strategic planning and policy development process begins with…

Bright Futures and Florida Prepaid Plans Cover Costs of Tuition Increases for Many Students; the Impact Varies by Institution. Information Brief. Volume 4, Issue 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florida Board of Governors, State University System, 2007

2007-01-01

Bright Futures is a Florida-state-funded scholarship program that pays either 75% or 100%, depending on the scholarship level, for up to 132 credits hours in a 120-credit-hour program. Prepaid plans are purchased for a student prior to their attending college, and usually when the future college student is a young child. The plans guarantee the…

Coastal single-beam bathymetry data collected in 2015 from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stalk, Chelsea A.; DeWitt, Nancy T.; Kindinger, Jack L.; Flocks, James G.; Reynolds, Billy J.; Kelso, Kyle W.; Fredericks, Joseph J.; Tuten, Thomas M.

2017-03-10

As part of the Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program (BICM), scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted a nearshore single-beam bathymetry survey along the south-central coast of Louisiana, from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island, in July 2015. The goal of the BICM program is to provide long-term data on Louisiana’s coastline and use this data to plan, design, evaluate, and maintain current and future barrier island restoration projects. The data described in this report will provide baseline bathymetric information for future research investigating island evolution, sediment transport, and recent and long-term geomorphic change, and will support modeling of future changes in response to restoration and storm impacts. The survey area encompasses more than 300 square kilometers of nearshore environment from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island. This data series serves as an archive of processed single-beam bathymetry data, collected from July 22–29, 2015, under USGS Field Activity Number 2015-320-FA. Geographic information system data products include a 200-meter-cell-size interpolated bathymetry grid, trackline maps, and point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata.

Additional Technologies and Investigations for Provision of Future Aeronautical Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilbert, Tricia; Jin, Jenny; Berger, Jason; Henriksen, Steve

2008-01-01

The following NASA Contractor Report documents the in-depth studies on select technologies that could support long-term aeronautical mobile communications operating concepts. This work was performed during the third and final phase of NASA s Technology Assessment for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/EUROCONTROL Future Communications Study (FCS) under a multiyear NASA contract. It includes the associated findings of ITT Corporation and NASA Glenn Research Center to the FAA as of the end of May 2007. The activities documented in this report focus on three final technology candidates identified by the United States, and were completed before sufficient information about two additional technology candidates proposed by EUROCONTROL was made available. A separate report to be published by NASA/CR-2008-215144, entitled Final Report on Technology Investigations for Provision of Future Aeronautical Communications will include an assessment of all five final candidate technologies considered by the U.S. agencies (FAA and NASA) and EUROCONTROL. It will also provide an overview of the entire technology assessment process, including final recommendations. All three phases of this work were performed in compliance with the Terms of Reference for the Action Plan number 17 (AP-17) cooperative research agreement among EUROCONTROL, FAA, and NASA along with the general guidance of the FAA and EUROCONTROL available throughout this study.

How evidence-based workforce planning in Australia is informing policy development in the retention and distribution of the health workforce

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Australia’s health workforce is facing significant challenges now and into the future. Health Workforce Australia (HWA) was established by the Council of Australian Governments as the national agency to progress health workforce reform to address the challenges of providing a skilled, innovative and flexible health workforce in Australia. HWA developed Australia’s first major, long-term national workforce projections for doctors, nurses and midwives over a planning horizon to 2025 (called Health Workforce 2025; HW 2025), which provided a national platform for developing policies to help ensure Australia’s health workforce meets the community’s needs. Methods A review of existing workforce planning methodologies, in concert with the project brief and an examination of data availability, identified that the best fit-for-purpose workforce planning methodology was the stock and flow model for estimating workforce supply and the utilisation method for estimating workforce demand. Scenario modelling was conducted to explore the implications of possible alternative futures, and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to various input parameters. Extensive consultation was conducted to test the methodology, data and assumptions used, and also influenced the scenarios selected for modelling. Additionally, a number of other key principles were adopted in developing HW 2025 to ensure the workforce projections were robust and able to be applied nationally. Results The findings from HW 2025 highlighted that a ‘business as usual’ approach to Australia’s health workforce is not sustainable over the next 10 years, with a need for co-ordinated, long-term reforms by government, professions and the higher education and training sector for a sustainable and affordable health workforce. The main policy levers identified to achieve change were innovation and reform, immigration, training capacity and efficiency and workforce distribution. Conclusion While HW 2025 has provided a national platform for health workforce policy development, it is not a one-off project. It is an ongoing process where HWA will continue to develop and improve health workforce projections incorporating data and methodology improvements to support incremental health workforce changes. PMID:24490586

How evidence-based workforce planning in Australia is informing policy development in the retention and distribution of the health workforce.

PubMed

Crettenden, Ian F; McCarty, Maureen V; Fenech, Bethany J; Heywood, Troy; Taitz, Michelle C; Tudman, Sam

2014-02-03

Australia's health workforce is facing significant challenges now and into the future. Health Workforce Australia (HWA) was established by the Council of Australian Governments as the national agency to progress health workforce reform to address the challenges of providing a skilled, innovative and flexible health workforce in Australia. HWA developed Australia's first major, long-term national workforce projections for doctors, nurses and midwives over a planning horizon to 2025 (called Health Workforce 2025; HW 2025), which provided a national platform for developing policies to help ensure Australia's health workforce meets the community's needs. A review of existing workforce planning methodologies, in concert with the project brief and an examination of data availability, identified that the best fit-for-purpose workforce planning methodology was the stock and flow model for estimating workforce supply and the utilisation method for estimating workforce demand. Scenario modelling was conducted to explore the implications of possible alternative futures, and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to various input parameters. Extensive consultation was conducted to test the methodology, data and assumptions used, and also influenced the scenarios selected for modelling. Additionally, a number of other key principles were adopted in developing HW 2025 to ensure the workforce projections were robust and able to be applied nationally. The findings from HW 2025 highlighted that a 'business as usual' approach to Australia's health workforce is not sustainable over the next 10 years, with a need for co-ordinated, long-term reforms by government, professions and the higher education and training sector for a sustainable and affordable health workforce. The main policy levers identified to achieve change were innovation and reform, immigration, training capacity and efficiency and workforce distribution. While HW 2025 has provided a national platform for health workforce policy development, it is not a one-off project. It is an ongoing process where HWA will continue to develop and improve health workforce projections incorporating data and methodology improvements to support incremental health workforce changes.

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adian; Jones, Sharon Monica

2010-01-01

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

2011-01-01

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Saving in cycles: how to get people to save more money.

PubMed

Tam, Leona; Dholakia, Utpal

2014-02-01

Low personal savings rates are an important social issue in the United States. We propose and test one particular method to get people to save more money that is based on the cyclical time orientation. In contrast to conventional, popular methods that encourage individuals to ignore past mistakes, focus on the future, and set goals to save money, our proposed method frames the savings task in cyclical terms, emphasizing the present. Across the studies, individuals who used our proposed cyclical savings method, compared with individuals who used a linear savings method, provided an average of 74% higher savings estimates and saved an average of 78% more money. We also found that the cyclical savings method was more efficacious because it increased implementation planning and lowered future optimism regarding saving money.

A proposed streamflow-data program for North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crosby, O.A.

1970-01-01

An evaluation of the streamflow data available in North Dakota was made to provide guidelines for planning future programs. The basic steps in the evaluation procedure were (1) definition of the long-term goals of the streamflow data program in quantitative form, (2) examination and analysis of all available data to determine which goals have already been met, and (3) consideration of alternate programs and techniques to meet the remaining objectives. None of the goals could be met by generalization of the data for gaged basins by regression analysis. This fact indicates that significant changes should be made in the present data program to obtain better areal coverage to achieve the goals set. A streamflow data program based on the guidelines developed in this study is proposed for the future.

Requirements Definition for Force Level Command and Control in the Tactical Air Control System: An Evolutionary Approach Toward Meeting Near Term and Future Operational Needs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-01-01

numerous major exercises, such as WINTEX- CIMEX , REFORGER, CRESTED EAGLE, and BRIGHT STAR. USAFE is now actively planning an evolutionary approach toward C2...during WINTEX- CIMEX 85, we have been investigating a number of approaches to enhancing joint air-ground operations and providing a means for better...throughout the ground battle elements. The USAREUR Distributed Decision Aid System (UD[1AS) was initially deployed in Exercise WINTEX- CIMEX 84. During

The Iraq War: Learning from the Past, Adapting to the Present, and Planning for the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

derive a template for victory from any single campaign or national approach. 4 DEFINING TERMS A public fed a steady diet of suicide bombings and...appointment), Sir Gerald Templer, insisted that committees meet at least once a day, if only for “a whiskey and soda .”27 The system worked well in Malaya and...allowed the insurgency to take root, making it far more difficult to eradicate. Even when U.S. forces became aware of the danger , they had great

Hypertext and hypermedia systems in information retrieval

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaye, K. M.; Kuhn, A. D.

1992-01-01

This paper opens with a brief history of hypertext and hypermedia in the context of information management during the 'information age.' Relevant terms are defined and the approach of the paper is explained. Linear and hypermedia information access methods are contrasted. A discussion of hyperprogramming in the handling of complex scientific and technical information follows. A selection of innovative hypermedia systems is discussed. An analysis of the Clinical Practice Library of Medicine NASA STI Program hypermedia application is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the NASA STI Program's future hypermedia project plans.

Social impact evaluation: Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for Anticipatory Project Assessment (ARA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayo, L. H.

1975-01-01

An anticipatory project assessment is discussed which is characterized as the capacity to perform, and the disposition to take into account in relevant decisional areas, the following operations: identification of the significant effects which will result from the introduction of a specified project configuration into alternative projected future social environments during the planning, implementation, and operational states; evaluation of such effects in terms of social impacts on affected participants and social value-institutional processes in accord with specified concepts of social justice.

Nuclear energy: salvation or suicide. [Contains glossary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, C.C.

A collection of 700 editorials and feature articles collected from 125 US newspapers addresses the dominant areas of concern about nuclear power: plant safety, radioactive wastes, proliferation, and cost. The editorial debates present the pros and cons of Three Mile Island and other accidents, ocean dumping, evacuation plans, radioactive waste transport and storage, nuclear fuel processing, the Karen Silkwood case, and breeder reactors. The appendix raises the question of the future for fission and the possibility of nuclear fusion as an alternative. There is a subject index and a glossary of basic terms.

VLBI2010 in NASA's Space Geodesy Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Chopo

2012-01-01

In the summer of 20 11 NASA approved the proposal for the Space Geodesy Project (SGP). A major element is developing at the Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory a prototype of the next generation of integrated stations with co-located VLBI, SLR, GNSS and DORIS instruments as well as a system for monitoring the vector ties. VLBI2010 is a key component of the integrated station. The objectives ofSGP, the role of VLBI20 lOin the context of SGP, near term plans and possible future scenarios will be discussed.

Autonomous System for MISSE Temperature Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, G. A.; Lash, T. J.; Kinard, W. H.; Bull, K.; deGeest, F.

2001-01-01

The Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) is scheduled to be deployed during the summer of 2001. This experiment is a cooperative endeavor by NASA-LaRC, NASA-GRC, NASA MSFC, NASA-JSC, the Materials Laboratory at the Air Force Research Laboratory, and the Boeing Phantom Works. The objective of the experiment is to evaluate performance, stability, and long term survivability of materials and components planned for use by NASA and DOD on future LEO, synchronous orbit, and interplanetary space missions. Temperature is an important parameter in the evaluation of space environmental effects on materials.

BRIC in the Backyard: Brazil’s Economic Rise and What it Means for the United States (CSL Issue Paper, Volume 14-11, July 2011)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

component in the administration’s plans to generate future growth for the country . To develop and optimize export opportunities, the government is...seeking expanded trade ties with developing countries , as well as a strengthening of the Common Market of the South – Mercosul (Mercosur in Spanish...one of these of these geo-political risers and it is perhaps the most underestimated of the so-called BRIC countries . The term BRIC was coined by Jim

A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leblanc, Marc; Tweed, Sarah; Van Dijk, Albert; Timbal, Bertrand

2012-01-01

The Murray-Darling Basin is Australia's food bowl and home to many iconic water bodies that are culturally and ecologically highly valued. The recent Millennium Drought (from mid-1990s to 2009) was the most severe hydrological drought since records started in the late 19th century. It severely impacted on the basin and for many acted as a wake-up call. To address the ongoing declines in water resources and environmental conditions and to prepare the region for climate change, Australia's Governments are currently attempting to introduce a new comprehensive, and integrated approach to the management of the basin's water resources. In this paper, long-term time series of climate, hydrological and environmental data are used to analyze how compounding stresses have gradually affected the hydrological system and its services. Major hydroclimatic stresses considered in this paper include salinity, water use, droughts, and climate change. Other, more localized or minor stresses exist (groundwater extraction, farm dams, afforestation, bush fires, cyanobacterial blooms and pollutants) and are reviewed more briefly. The history of water policy and planning shows that Government actions have been strongly influential on the basin. A shift in the strategic goals from water development to the protection and restoration of environmental assets is noticeable since the mid 1990s. Median climate change projections by 2030 indicate smaller reductions in rainfall and runoff than those observed during the recent Millennium Drought, but have a relatively high uncertainty attached to them. The use of regional approaches to reduce that uncertainty, such as statistical downscaling, points to a sizeable decline in rainfall by the end of the century. Most climate projections used for planning consider greenhouse emission scenarios that have smaller global emission trends than the one observed over the last decade. Other, 'less optimistic' scenarios have to be considered for long-term water planning and food security. Compounding all these stresses, is the naturally high hydroclimatic variability of this semi-arid region, that may have been insufficiently considered during previous water development and planning efforts. Successful water planning will need to balance cultural and ecological values with food production, account for high natural variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, learn from past mistakes and be cognizant of future hydrological changes.

Space facilities: Meeting future needs for research, development, and operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The National Facilities Study (NFS) represents an interagency effort to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for world-class aeronautical and space facilities that meet current and projected needs for commercial and government aerospace research and development and space operations. At the request of NASA and the DOD, the National Research Council's Committee on Space Facilities has reviewed the space related findings of the NFS. The inventory of more than 2800 facilities will be an important resource, especially if it continues to be updated and maintained as the NFS report recommends. The data in the inventory provide the basis for a much better understanding of the resources available in the national facilities infrastructure, as well as extensive information on which to base rational decisions about current and future facilities needs. The working groups have used the inventory data and other information to make a set of recommendations that include estimates of cast savings and steps for implementation. While it is natural that the NFS focused on cost reduction and consolidations, such a study is most useful to future planning if it gives equal weight to guiding the direction of future facilities needed to satisfy legitimate national aspirations. Even in the context of cost reduction through facilities closures and consolidations, the study is timid about recognizing and proposing program changes and realignments of roles and missions to capture what could be significant savings and increased effectiveness. The recommendations of the Committee on Space Facilities are driven by the clear need to be more realistic and precise both in recognizing current incentives and disincentives in the aerospace industry and in forecasting future conditions for U.S. space activities.

Space facilities: Meeting future needs for research, development, and operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Facilities Study (NFS) represents an interagency effort to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for world-class aeronautical and space facilities that meet current and projected needs for commercial and government aerospace research and development and space operations. At the request of NASA and the DOD, the National Research Council's Committee on Space Facilities has reviewed the space related findings of the NFS. The inventory of more than 2800 facilities will be an important resource, especially if it continues to be updated and maintained as the NFS report recommends. The data in the inventory provide the basis for a much better understanding of the resources available in the national facilities infrastructure, as well as extensive information on which to base rational decisions about current and future facilities needs. The working groups have used the inventory data and other information to make a set of recommendations that include estimates of cast savings and steps for implementation. While it is natural that the NFS focused on cost reduction and consolidations, such a study is most useful to future planning if it gives equal weight to guiding the direction of future facilities needed to satisfy legitimate national aspirations. Even in the context of cost reduction through facilities closures and consolidations, the study is timid about recognizing and proposing program changes and realignments of roles and missions to capture what could be significant savings and increased effectiveness. The recommendations of the Committee on Space Facilities are driven by the clear need to be more realistic and precise both in recognizing current incentives and disincentives in the aerospace industry and in forecasting future conditions for U.S. space activities.

Community Data Management and the Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duerr, R.; Pulsifer, P. L.; Strawhacker, C.; Mccann, H. S.

2016-12-01

The mission of the Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA) is to facilitate the collection, preservation, exchange, and use of local observations and knowledge by Indigenous communities in the Arctic by providing data management services and user support, and by fostering collaboration between resident Arctic experts and visiting researchers. ELOKA's overarching philosophy is that Local and Traditional Knowledge (LTK) and scientific data and expertise are complementary and reinforcing ways of understanding the Arctic system. Collecting, documenting, preserving, and sharing knowledge is a cooperative endeavor, and ELOKA is dedicated to fostering ethical knowledge sharing among Arctic residents and communities, scientists, educators, policy makers, and the general public. But what does that mean in practice and what are the next steps for ELOKA in the coming years? In this presentation, we discuss the ethical issues involved with data management for LTK and community-based projects, some of the tools ELOKA has developed for interacting with communities and researchers and for managing LTK data, and our plans for the future. These include a discussion of the considerations local and community-based projects should make when planning and conducting research. It is clear, for example, that research projects should either include Indigenous voices at the outset of the project or have a prominent Indigenous voice so that appropriate methods or approaches can be adopted. Discussion of data access and funder obligations will be included. The data management tools that ELOKA employs and is developing for the future that can manage the wide range of data types typical of a community or LTK project will also be described, as will ELOKA's program for transferring long-term data management skills to communities that wish to take that on. Finally, ELOKA's plans for the future will be described.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Spike: AI scheduling for Hubble Space Telescope after 18 months of orbital operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Mark D.

1992-01-01

This paper is a progress report on the Spike scheduling system, developed by the Space Telescope Science Institute for long-term scheduling of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations. Spike is an activity-based scheduler which exploits artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for constraint representation and for scheduling search. The system has been in operational use since shortly after HST launch in April 1990. Spike was adopted for several other satellite scheduling problems; of particular interest was the demonstration that the Spike framework is sufficiently flexible to handle both long-term and short-term scheduling, on timescales of years down to minutes or less. We describe the recent progress made in scheduling search techniques, the lessons learned from early HST operations, and the application of Spike to other problem domains. We also describe plans for the future evolution of the system.

Medulloblastoma: Long-term follow-up of patients treated with electron irradiation of the spinal field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaspar, L.E.; Dawson, D.J.; Tilley-Gulliford, S.A.

1991-09-01

Thirty-two patients with posterior fossa medulloblastoma underwent treatment with electron irradiation to the spinal field. The 5- and 10-year actuarial survival rates were 57% and 50%, respectively. Late complications observed in the 15 patients followed up for more than 5 years were short stature (six patients), decreased sitting-standing height ratio (four patients), scoliosis (two patients), poor school performance (seven patients), xerostomia (one patient), esophageal stricture (one patient), pituitary dysfunction (four patients), primary hypothyroidism (one patient), bilateral eighth-nerve deafness (one patient), and carcinoma of the thyroid (one patient). Complications following treatment with electrons to a spinal field are compared with reportedmore » complications following treatment with photons to the spinal field. Although short-term reactions were minimal, the authors found no difference in late complications. More sophisticated treatment planning may show such a long-term benefit in the future.« less

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

2018-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

This report covers the activities of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) for calendar year 1998-a year of sharp contrasts and significant successes at NASA. The year opened with the announcement of large workforce cutbacks. The slip in the schedule for launching the International Space Station (ISS) created a five-month hiatus in Space Shuttle launches. This slack period ended with the successful and highly publicized launch of the STS-95 mission. As the year closed, ISS assembly began with the successful orbiting and joining of the Functional Cargo Block (FGB), Zarya, from Russia and the Unity Node from the United States. Throughout the year, the Panel maintained its scrutiny of NASA's safety processes. Of particular interest were the potential effects on safety of workforce reductions and the continued transition of functions to the Space Flight Operations Contractor. Attention was also given to the risk management plans of the Aero-Space Technology programs, including the X-33, X-34, and X-38. Overall, the Panel concluded that safety is well served for the present. The picture is not as clear for the future. Cutbacks have limited the depth of talent available. In many cases, technical specialties are 'one deep.' The extended hiring freeze has resulted in an older workforce that will inevitably suffer significant departures from retirements in the near future. The resulting 'brain drain' could represent a future safety risk unless appropriate succession planning is started expeditiously. This and other topics are covered in the section addressing workforce. The major NASA programs are also limited in their ability to plan property for the future. This is of particular concern for the Space Shuttle and ISS because these programs are scheduled to operate well into the next century. In the case of the Space Shuttle, beneficial and mandatory safety and operational upgrades are being delayed because of a lack of sufficient present funding. Likewise, the ISS has little flexibility to begin long lead-time items for upgrades or contingency planning. For example, the section on computer hardware and software contains specific findings related to required longer range safety-related actions. NASA can be proud of its accomplishments this past year, but must remain ever vigilant, particularly as ISS assembly begins to accelerate. The Panel will continue to focus on both the short- and long-term aspects of risk management and safety planning. This task continues to be made manageable and productive by the excellent cooperation the Panel receives from both NASA and its contractors. Particular emphasis will continue to be directed to longer term workforce and program planning issues as well as the immediate risks associated with ISS assembly and the initial flights of the X-33 and X-34. Section 2 of this report presents specific findings and recommendations generated by ASAP activities during 1998. Section 3 contains more detailed information in support of these findings and recommendations. Appendix A is a current roster of Panel members, consultants, and staff. Appendix B contains NASA's response to the findings and recommendations from the 1997 ASAP Annual Report. Appendix C details the fact-finding activities of the Panel in 1998. During the year, Mr. Richard D. Blomberg was elected chair of the Panel and Vice Admiral (VADM) Robert F Dunn was elected deputy chair. VADM Bernard M. Kauderer moved from consultant to member. Mr. Charles J. Donlan retired from the Panel after many years of meritorious service. Ms. Shirley C. McCarty and Mr. Robert L. ('Hoot') Gibson joined the Panel as consultants.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autism: Diagnosis

MedlinePlus

... Resources Treatment Options Family Issues Autism Friendly Community Inclusion Future Planning How the Autism Society can Help ... Resources Treatment Options Family Issues Autism Friendly Community Inclusion Future Planning How the Autism Society can Help ...

Pandemic Influenza Planning, United States, 1978–2008

PubMed Central

Strikas, Raymond A.; Gensheimer, Kathleen F.; Cox, Nancy J.; Redd, Stephen C.

2013-01-01

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community’s response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises. PMID:23731839

Planning for Future Care and the End of Life: A Qualitative Analysis of Gay, Lesbian, and Heterosexual Couples.

PubMed

Thomeer, Mieke Beth; Donnelly, Rachel; Reczek, Corinne; Umberson, Debra

2017-12-01

Two key components of end-of-life planning are (1) informal discussions about future care and other end-of-life preferences and (2) formal planning via living wills and other legal documents. We leverage previous work on the institutional aspects of marriage and on sexual-minority discrimination to theorize why and how heterosexual, gay, and lesbian married couples engage in informal and formal end-of-life planning. We analyze qualitative dyadic in-depth interviews with 45 midlife gay, lesbian, and heterosexual married couples ( N = 90 spouses). Findings suggest that same-sex spouses devote considerable attention to informal planning conversations and formal end-of-life plans, while heterosexual spouses report minimal formal or informal planning. The primary reasons same-sex spouses give for making end-of-life preparations are related to the absence of legal protections and concerns about discrimination from families. These findings raise questions about future end-of-life planning for same- and different-sex couples given a rapidly shifting legal and social landscape.

Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efird, Cathy M.

The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

Futures Planning--Adult Sibling Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davys, Deborah; Mitchell, Duncan; Haigh, Carol

2015-01-01

A total of 15 adult siblings of people who have a learning disability were interviewed in relation to their future wishes and expectations of care giving. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) was used to analyse transcripts from the interviews where it was demonstrated that futures planning remains an area of difficulty for families of…

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

ISRU Technologies for Mars Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finn, John E.; Sridhar, K. R.

2000-01-01

The primary objectives of the Mars Exploration program are to collect data for planetary science in a quest to answer questions related to Origins, to search for evidence of extinct and extant life, and to expand the human presence in the solar system. The public and political engagement that is critical for support of a Mars exploration program is based on all of these objectives. In order to retain and to build public and political support, it is important for NASA to have an integrated Mars exploration plan, not separate robotic and human plans that exist in parallel or in sequence. The resolution stemming from the current architectural review and prioritization of payloads may be pivotal in determining whether NASA will have such a unified plan and retain public support. There are several potential scientific and technological links between the robotic-only missions that have been flown and planned to date, and the robotic + human missions that will come in the future. Taking advantage of and leveraging those links are central to the idea of a unified Mars exploration plan. One such link is in situ resource utilization (ISRU) as an enabling technology to provide consumables such as fuels, oxygen, sweep and utility gases from the Mars atmosphere. ISRU for propellant production and for generation of life support consumables is a key element of human exploration mission plans because of the tremendous savings that can be realized in terms of launch costs and reduction in overall risk to the mission. The Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) Enterprise has supported ISRU technology development for several years, and is funding the MIP and PROMISE payloads that will serve as the first demonstrations of ISRU technology for Mars. In our discussion and presentation at the workshop, we will highlight how the PROMISE ISRU experiment that has been selected by HEDS for a future Mars flight opportunity can extend and enhance the science experiments on board.

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

PubMed

Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

2016-07-15

Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.