Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

PubMed

Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

2014-01-01

Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

PubMed

Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration--data from Australia and the Netherlands.

PubMed

McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David

2002-04-01

Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.

Association of Internet search trends with suicide death in Taipei City, Taiwan, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Yang, Albert C; Tsai, Shi-Jen; Huang, Norden E; Peng, Chung-Kang

2011-07-01

Although Internet has become an important source for affected people seeking suicide information, the connection between Internet searches for suicide information and suicidal death remains largely unknown. This study aims to evaluate the association between suicide and Internet searches trends for 37 suicide-related terms representing major known risks of suicide. This study analyzes suicide death data in Taipei City, Taiwan and corresponding local Internet search trend data provided by Google Insights for Search during the period from January 2004 to December 2009. The investigation uses cross correlation analysis to estimate the temporal relationship between suicide and Internet search trends and multiple linear regression analysis to identify significant factors associated with suicide from a pool of search trend data that either coincides or precedes the suicide death. Results show that a set of suicide-related search terms, the trends of which either temporally coincided or preceded trends of suicide data, were associated with suicide death. These search factors varied among different suicide samples. Searches for "major depression" and "divorce" accounted for, at most, 30.2% of the variance in suicide data. When considering only leading suicide trends, searches for "divorce" and the pro-suicide term "complete guide of suicide," accounted for 22.7% of variance in suicide data. Appropriate filtering and detection of potentially harmful source in keyword-driven search results by search engine providers may be a reasonable strategy to reduce suicide deaths. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.

An Analysis of Research Trends in Dissertations and Theses Studying Blended Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drysdale, Jeffery S.; Graham, Charles R.; Spring, Kristian J.; Halverson, Lisa R.

2013-01-01

This article analyzes the research of 205 doctoral dissertations and masters' theses in the domain of blended learning. A summary of trends regarding the growth and context of blended learning research is presented. Methodological trends are described in terms of qualitative, inferential statistics, descriptive statistics, and combined approaches…

AR(p) -based detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.

2018-07-01

Autoregressive models are commonly used for modeling time-series from nature, economics and finance. This work explored simple autoregressive AR(p) models to remove long-term trends in detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Crude oil prices and bitcoin exchange rate were considered, with the former corresponding to a mature market and the latter to an emergent market. Results showed that AR(p) -based DFA performs similar to traditional DFA. However, the former DFA provides information on stability of long-term trends, which is valuable for understanding and quantifying the dynamics of complex time series from financial systems.

Pneumonia Mortality in Children Aged <5 Years in 56 Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Trends from 1960 to 2012.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Cao, Qing; Ding, Cheng; Cui, Yuanxia; Zhou, Yuqing; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Xu, Kaijin; Ruan, Bing; Li, Lanjuan

2017-10-30

Pneumonia is now the second leading cause of death for children aged <5 years worldwide. However, analyses of the long-term evolution of under-5 mortality from pneumonia are still scarce in the literature. We aimed to explore long-term trends of under-5 mortality from pneumonia in 56 countries from 1960 to 2012. Data on under-5 mortality from pneumonia were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. Long-term trends were assessed for 56 countries and for 4 national income transition groups. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to detect distinct period segments of long-term trends and estimate the annual percent of changes of each period segment. The average mortality rate from pneumonia for children aged 0-4 years in 56 countries declined from 163.0 per 100000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 119.4 to 212.8) in 1960 to 9.9 per 100000 children (95% CI, 6.4 to 13.4) in 2012, with an average annual percent of change of -5.6% (95% CI, -7.2% to -3.9%). The temporal trends of childhood mortality were different between national income transition groups. Our findings suggest a striking overall downward trend in under-5 mortality from pneumonia between 1960 and 2012. However, the rate and absolute terms of decline differ by national income transition group. These variable patterns between national income transition groups may inform further intervention setting and priority setting. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Text Mining of Journal Articles for Sleep Disorder Terminologies.

PubMed

Lam, Calvin; Lai, Fu-Chih; Wang, Chia-Hui; Lai, Mei-Hsin; Hsu, Nanly; Chung, Min-Huey

2016-01-01

Research on publication trends in journal articles on sleep disorders (SDs) and the associated methodologies by using text mining has been limited. The present study involved text mining for terms to determine the publication trends in sleep-related journal articles published during 2000-2013 and to identify associations between SD and methodology terms as well as conducting statistical analyses of the text mining findings. SD and methodology terms were extracted from 3,720 sleep-related journal articles in the PubMed database by using MetaMap. The extracted data set was analyzed using hierarchical cluster analyses and adjusted logistic regression models to investigate publication trends and associations between SD and methodology terms. MetaMap had a text mining precision, recall, and false positive rate of 0.70, 0.77, and 11.51%, respectively. The most common SD term was breathing-related sleep disorder, whereas narcolepsy was the least common. Cluster analyses showed similar methodology clusters for each SD term, except narcolepsy. The logistic regression models showed an increasing prevalence of insomnia, parasomnia, and other sleep disorders but a decreasing prevalence of breathing-related sleep disorder during 2000-2013. Different SD terms were positively associated with different methodology terms regarding research design terms, measure terms, and analysis terms. Insomnia-, parasomnia-, and other sleep disorder-related articles showed an increasing publication trend, whereas those related to breathing-related sleep disorder showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, experimental studies more commonly focused on hypersomnia and other SDs and less commonly on insomnia, breathing-related sleep disorder, narcolepsy, and parasomnia. Thus, text mining may facilitate the exploration of the publication trends in SDs and the associated methodologies.

Population-based trend analysis of laparoscopic Nissen and Toupet fundoplications for gastroesophageal reflux disease.

PubMed

Zingg, U; Rosella, L; Guller, U

2010-12-01

The Nissen and Toupet fundoplications are the most commonly used techniques for surgical treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease. To date, no population-based trend analysis has been reported examining the choice of procedure and short-term outcomes. This study was designed to analyze trends in the use of Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications, and corresponding short-term outcomes during a 10-year period between 1995 and 2004. A trend analysis was performed of 873 patients (Toupet: 254 patients, Nissen: 619 patients) prospectively enrolled in the database of the Swiss Association for Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery. The frequency of the performed techniques remained stable during the observation period (p value for trend 0.206). The average postoperative and total length of hospital stay both significantly decreased during the 10-year period from 5.6 to 4.0 days and 6.8 to 4.8 days, respectively (both p values for trend <0.001). The average duration of surgery decreased significantly from 141 minutes to 121 minutes (p value for trend <0.001). There was a trend towards less complications in later years (2000-2004) compared to early years (1995-1999, p = 0.058). Conversion rates were significantly lower in later years compared with early years (p = 0.004). This is the first trend analysis in the literature reporting clinical outcomes of 873 prospectively enrolled patients undergoing Nissen and Toupet fundoplications during a 10-year period. The proportion of laparoscopic Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications remained stable over time, indicating that literature reports of the advantages of one procedure over the other had minimal influence on surgeons' choice of technique. Length of hospital stay, duration of surgery, morbidity, and conversion rate decreased over time, reflecting the learning curve. Clearly, patient outcomes have much improved during the 10-year observation period.

Publication trends of Allergy, Pediatric Allergy and Immunology, and Clinical and Translational Allergy journals: a MeSH term-based bibliometric analysis.

PubMed

Martinho-Dias, Daniel; Sousa-Pinto, Bernardo; Botelho-Souza, Júlio; Soares, António; Delgado, Luís; Fonseca, João Almeida

2018-01-01

We performed a MeSH term-based bibliometric analysis aiming to assess the publication trends of EAACI journals, namely Allergy, Pediatric Allergy and Immunology (PAI) (from 1990 to 2015) and Clinical and Translational Allergy (CTA) (from its inception in 2011 to 2015). We also aimed to discuss the impact of the creation of CTA in the publication topics of Allergy and PAI. We analysed a total of 1973 articles and 23,660 MeSH terms. Most MeSH terms in the three journals fell in the category of "basic immunology and molecular biology" (BIMB). During the studied period, we observed an increase in the proportion of MeSH terms on BIMB, and a decreasing proportion of terms on allergic rhinitis and aeroallergens. The observed changes in Allergy and PAI publication topics hint at a possible impact from CTA creation.

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-04-01

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…

The browning of Alaska's boreal forest

Treesearch

Mary Beth Parent; David Verbyla

2010-01-01

We used twelve Landsat scenes from the 1980s-2009 and regional 2000-2009 MODIS data to examine the long-term trend in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within unburned areas of the Alaskan boreal forest. Our analysis shows that there has been a declining trend in NDVI in this region, with the strongest "browning trend" occurring in eastern...

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Internet search trends analysis tools can provide real-time data on kidney stone disease in the United States.

PubMed

Willard, Scott D; Nguyen, Mike M

2013-01-01

To evaluate the utility of using Internet search trends data to estimate kidney stone occurrence and understand the priorities of patients with kidney stones. Internet search trends data represent a unique resource for monitoring population self-reported illness and health information-seeking behavior. The Google Insights for Search analysis tool was used to study searches related to kidney stones, with each search term returning a search volume index (SVI) according to the search frequency relative to the total search volume. SVIs for the term, "kidney stones," were compiled by location and time parameters and compared with the published weather and stone prevalence data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the association of the search interest score with known epidemiologic variations in kidney stone disease, including latitude, temperature, season, and state. The frequency of the related search terms was categorized by theme and qualitatively analyzed. The SVI correlated significantly with established kidney stone epidemiologic predictors. The SVI correlated with the state latitude (R-squared=0.25; P<.001), the state mean annual temperature (R-squared=0.24; P<.001), and state combined sex prevalence (R-squared=0.25; P<.001). Female prevalence correlated more strongly than did male prevalence (R-squared=0.37; P<.001, and R-squared=0.17; P=.003, respectively). The national SVI correlated strongly with the average U.S. temperature by month (R-squared=0.54; P=.007). The search term ranking suggested that Internet users are most interested in the diagnosis, followed by etiology, infections, and treatment. Geographic and temporal variability in kidney stone disease appear to be accurately reflected in Internet search trends data. Internet search trends data might have broader applications for epidemiologic and urologic research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

PubMed

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Emerging Trends on the Topic of Information Technology in the Field of Educational Sciences: A Bibliometric Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

González-Valiente, Carlos Luis

2015-01-01

The paper presents a bibliometric analysis on the topic of Information Technology (IT) in the field of Educational Sciences, aimed at envisioning the research emerging trends. The ERIC database is used as a consultation source; the results were subjected to productivity by authors, journals, and term co-occurrence analysis indicators for the…

History and Trends of "Personal Health Record" Research in PubMed

PubMed Central

Kim, Jeongeun; Bates, David W.

2011-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to review history and trends of personal health record research in PubMed and to provide accurate understanding and categorical analysis of expert opinions. Methods For the search strategy, PubMed was queried for 'personal health record, personal record, and PHR' in the title and abstract fields. Those containing different definitions of the word were removed by one-by-one analysis from the results, 695 articles. In the end, total of 229 articles were analyzed in this research. Results The results show that the changes in terms over the years and the shift to patient centeredness and mixed usage. And we identified history and trend of PHR research in some category that the number of publications by year, topic, methodologies and target diseases. Also from analysis of MeSH terms, we can show the focal interest in regards the PHR boundaries and related subjects. Conclusions For PHRs to be efficiently used by general public, initial understanding of the history and trends of PHR research may be helpful. Simultaneously, accurate understanding and categorical analysis of expert opinions that can lead to the development and growth of PHRs will be valuable to their adoption and expansion. PMID:21818452

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

PubMed

Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Long term trending of engineering data for the Hubble Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, Ross M.

1993-01-01

A major goal in spacecraft engineering analysis is the detection of component failures before the fact. Trending is the process of monitoring subsystem states to discern unusual behaviors. This involves reducing vast amounts of data about a component or subsystem into a form that helps humans discern underlying patterns and correlations. A long term trending system has been developed for the Hubble Space Telescope. Besides processing the data for 988 distinct telemetry measurements each day, it produces plots of 477 important parameters for the entire 24 hours. Daily updates to the trend files also produce 339 thirty day trend plots each month. The total system combines command procedures to control the execution of the C-based data processing program, user-written FORTRAN routines, and commercial off-the-shelf plotting software. This paper includes a discussion the performance of the trending system and of its limitations.

Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Jared; McNichol, Elizabeth C.; Mishel, Lawrence; Zahradnik, Robert

This report examines trends in income distribution from the late 1970s to the late 1990s in the 50 states. It is based on before-tax income for families from the Census Bureau's March Current Population Survey public use files. All figures are expressed in 1997 dollars and adjusted for inflation. The paper examines the long term trend from the…

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to estimate the trend, and 2) the response of carbon uptake to climate change may be more sensitive than the response of land surface phenology itself.

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.

2013-01-01

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the upstrean Hing-she station raise vivestok Sing-She stations are that ammonia on a upward trend, BOD5 no significant change in trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, river pollution index (RPI) a slight downward trend. Dong-gang River Basin , but the progress of sewer construction in slow. To reduce pollation in this river effort shoul be made regulatory reform on livestock waste control and acceleration of sewer construction. Keywords: quantile regression analysis, BOD5, RPI

Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks.

PubMed

Saad, E W; Prokhorov, D V; Wunsch, D C

1998-01-01

Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN. We also discuss different predictability analysis techniques and perform an analysis of predictability based on a history of daily closing price. Our results indicate that all the networks are feasible, the primary preference being one of convenience.

Multi-sensor studies of short-term interannual variations of aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leptoukh, G.; Zubko, V.

2009-04-01

In the present paper, we analyze in details the interannual variability of MODIS (Terra and Aqua) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) for years 2002 - 2008. The AOD anomaly maps of short-term trends exhibit interesting spatial variability with the AOD percent change per year reaching 10% or more in some contiguous areas ("hot" and "cold" spots). These numbers seem to be rather high to reflect the actual changes in aerosol emissions, thus prompting the following questions: Are these changes real, or some of these high trends are in fact artifacts of the analysis methods used? Can they be attributed to trends in aerosol sampling trends? Are they caused by changes in meteorological patterns affecting aerosol transport routs? Is there any relation of these changes to ENSO, NAO, and other known atmospheric cycles? Our analysis (still in progress) provides numerical answers and physical explanation to some of these questions. We investigate alternative methods for trend calculation and provide recommendations for a more robust AOD trend calculation. We correlate AOD spatial and temporal distributions with those of humidity, winds, seas surface temperature, and other geophysical parameters using remote sensing data from various space-based sensors, e.g., MODIS, AIRS, along with reanalysis data. We provide the most likely relation of AOD changes observed in some equatorial areas with the recent phase of ENSO. As a result, we identify regions where AOD short-term trends can be attributed to causes other than drastic changes in local aerosol emission and/or caused by the natural outbreaks (fires, volcano eruptions, etc.). We also identify regions with monotonic change in local pollution where the alternative explanations fail to provide different interpretation for the observed trends.

Variability analysis of the reconstructed daily global solar radiation under all-sky and cloud-free conditions in Madrid during the period 1887-1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Román, R.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Calbó, J.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-07-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the daily global solar radiation (GSR) reconstructed from sunshine duration measurements at Madrid (Spain) from 1887 to 1950. Additionally, cloud cover information recorded simultaneously by human observations for the study period was also analyzed and used to select cloud-free days. First, the day-to-day variability of reconstructed GSR data was evaluated, finding a strong relationship between GSR and cloudiness. The second step was to analyze the long-term evolution of the GSR data which exhibited two clear trends with opposite sign: a marked negative trend of - 36 kJ/m2 per year for 1887-1915 period and a moderate positive trend of + 13 kJ/m2 per year for 1916-1950 period, both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Therefore, there is evidence of "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods in the reconstructed GSR data for all-sky conditions in Madrid from the late 19th to the mid-20th centuries. Unlike the long-term evolution of GSR data, cloud cover showed non-statistically significant trends for the two analyzed sub-periods, 1887-1915 and 1916-1950. Finally, GSR trends were analyzed exclusively under cloud-free conditions in summer by means of the determination of the clearness index for those days with all cloud cover observations equal to zero oktas. The long-term evolution of the clearness index was in accordance with the "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods, showing smaller trends but still statistically significant. This result points out that aerosol load variability could have had a non-negligible influence on the long-term evolution of GSR even as far as from the late 19th century.

Publication trends in the medical informatics literature: 20 years of "Medical Informatics" in MeSH

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to identify publication output, and research areas, as well as descriptively and quantitatively characterize the field of medical informatics through publication trend analysis over a twenty year period (1987–2006). Methods A bibliometric analysis of medical informatics citations indexed in Medline was performed using publication trends, journal frequency, impact factors, MeSH term frequencies and characteristics of citations. Results There were 77,023 medical informatics articles published during this 20 year period in 4,644 unique journals. The average annual article publication growth rate was 12%. The 50 identified medical informatics MeSH terms are rarely assigned together to the same document and are almost exclusively paired with a non-medical informatics MeSH term, suggesting a strong interdisciplinary trend. Trends in citations, journals, and MeSH categories of medical informatics output for the 20-year period are summarized. Average impact factor scores and weighted average impact factor scores increased over the 20-year period with two notable growth periods. Conclusion There is a steadily growing presence and increasing visibility of medical informatics literature over the years. Patterns in research output that seem to characterize the historic trends and current components of the field of medical informatics suggest it may be a maturing discipline, and highlight specific journals in which the medical informatics literature appears most frequently, including general medical journals as well as informatics-specific journals. PMID:19159472

Disentangling forest change from forest inventory change: A case study from the US Interior West

Treesearch

Sara A. Goeking

2015-01-01

Long-term trends in forest attributes are typically assessed using strategic inventories such as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The implicit assumption of any trend analysis is that data are comparable over time. The 1998 Farm Bill tasked FIA with implementing nationally consistent protocols,...

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Trends in biomedical informatics: automated topic analysis of JAMIA articles

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Chao; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Kim, Hyeon-Eui; Sun, Jimeng; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-01-01

Biomedical Informatics is a growing interdisciplinary field in which research topics and citation trends have been evolving rapidly in recent years. To analyze these data in a fast, reproducible manner, automation of certain processes is needed. JAMIA is a “generalist” journal for biomedical informatics. Its articles reflect the wide range of topics in informatics. In this study, we retrieved Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and citations of JAMIA articles published between 2009 and 2014. We use tensors (i.e., multidimensional arrays) to represent the interaction among topics, time and citations, and applied tensor decomposition to automate the analysis. The trends represented by tensors were then carefully interpreted and the results were compared with previous findings based on manual topic analysis. A list of most cited JAMIA articles, their topics, and publication trends over recent years is presented. The analyses confirmed previous studies and showed that, from 2012 to 2014, the number of articles related to MeSH terms Methods, Organization & Administration, and Algorithms increased significantly both in number of publications and citations. Citation trends varied widely by topic, with Natural Language Processing having a large number of citations in particular years, and Medical Record Systems, Computerized remaining a very popular topic in all years. PMID:26555018

Data for Figures and Tables in Journal Article Assessment of the Effects of Horizontal Grid Resolution on Long-Term Air Quality Trends using Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.02.036

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The dataset represents the data depicted in the Figures and Tables of a Journal Manuscript with the following abstract: The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions.This dataset is associated with the following publication

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

The Use of Citation Counting to Identify Research Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothman, Harry; Woodhead, Michael

1971-01-01

The analysis and application of manpower statistics to identify some long-term international research trends in economic entomology and pest conrol are described. Movements in research interests, particularly towards biological methods of control, correlations between these sectors, and the difficulties encountered in the construction of a…

Upward trend in vehicle-miles resumed during 2009 : a time series analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

After a 2-year interruption to a long-term upward trend, the : number of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) on the Nations highways : appears to have resumed a pattern of upward growth in : 2009. While VMT rises and falls seasonally, the years 2007 : an...

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward trends, and total phosphorus and chloride show upward trends.Sanitary sewer overflows (gray infrastructure) and best management practices (green infrastructure) were identified as factors affecting water-quality change. The duration of sanitary sewer overflows was positively correlated with annual loads of nutrients and bacteria, and the drainage area of best management practices was negatively correlated with annual loads of phosphate and sulfate. Results of the study indicate that continued investments in gray and green infrastructure are necessary for urban water-quality improvement. Although this outcome is not unexpected, long-term datasets such as the one used in this study, allow the effects of gray and green infrastructures to be quantified.Results of this study have implications for the Gwynns Falls watershed and its residents and Baltimore City and County managers. Moreover, outcomes are relevant to other watersheds in the metropolitan region that do not have the same long-term dataset. Further, this study has established a framework for ongoing statistical analysis of primary factors affecting urban water-quality trends as regulatory programs mature.

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis

PubMed Central

Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-01-01

Introduction Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. Aim To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends© (GT©). Materials and Methods GT© were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. Results The search volume measured over the time span noted the term “Dental caries” to be the most searched in Japan, “Gingivitis” in Jordan, “Oral Cancer” in Taiwan, “No Teeth” in Australia, “HIV symptoms” in Zimbabwe, “Broken Teeth” in United Kingdom, “Cleft palate” in Philippines, “Toothache” in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the “Gingivitis” with highest search volume. Conclusion The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques. PMID:29207825

Trend analysis of weekly acid rain data, 1978-83

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schertz, Terry L.; Hirsch, Robert M.

1985-01-01

There are 19 stations in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program which operated over the period 1978-83 and were subsequently incorporated into the National Trends Network in 1983. The precipitation chemistry data for these stations for this period were analyzed for trend, spatial correlation, seasonality, and relationship to precipitation volume. The intent of the analysis was to provide insights on the sources of variation in precipitation chemistry and to attempt to ascertain what statistical procedures may be most useful for ongoing analysis of the National Trends Network data. The Seasonal Kendall test was used for detection of trends in raw concentrations of dissolved constituents, pH and specific conductance, and residuals of these parameters from regression analysis. Forty-one percent of the trends detected in the raw concentrations were downtrends, 4 percent were uptrends, and 55 percent showed no trends at a = 0.2. At a more restrictive significance level of a = 0.05, 24 percent of the trends detected were downtrends, 2 percent were uptrends, and 74 percent showed no trends. The two constituents of greatest interest in terms of human generated emissions and environmental effects, sulfate and nitrate, showed only downtrends, and sulfate showed the largest decreases in concentration per year of all the ions tested.

Analysis of water-level fluctuations in Wisconsin wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, G.L.; Zaporozec, A.

1987-01-01

Long-term trends are apparent on hydrographs of wells Br-46, Mr-2S, Pt-276, Ro-3, and Ve-8. The trend of average annual water levels has been generally increasing since the late 1950's and is in general agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation. Hydrographs of well Ve-8, which has the longest period of record in Wisconsin, indicate that the generally rising trend started even earlier at the end of an extensive drought period in the 1930's.

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

Content Analysis of the Increasing Trend of Information Brokers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Luellen

This study tracks the increasing use of the term "information broker" in the professional library literature, and looks at the extent to which the professional literature reflects the increasing trend of information commodification. The content of three online databases was analyzed: LIBRARY LITERATURE, LISA, and ABI/INFORM. Four terms…

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Treesearch

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

2018-05-01

Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Nichols, James D.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of their analysis and suggest that their focus on long-term trends and expansion of the present survey design will provide limited benefits for conservation because it fails to either enhance the credibility of the survey or better tie the survey to regional management activities. A primary innovation claimed by Bart et al. (2004) is the incorporation of bias in estimation of study planning. We question the value of this approach, as it requires reliable estimates of range of future bias. We show that estimates of bias used by Bart et al. (2004) are speculative. Failure to obtain better estimates of this bias is likely to compromise the credibility of future analyses of the survey. We also note that the generic analysis of population trends that they provide is of questionable validity and is unlikely to be relevant for regions and species of management concern.

Trends in biomedical informatics: automated topic analysis of JAMIA articles.

PubMed

Han, Dong; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Chao; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Kim, Hyeon-Eui; Sun, Jimeng; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-11-01

Biomedical Informatics is a growing interdisciplinary field in which research topics and citation trends have been evolving rapidly in recent years. To analyze these data in a fast, reproducible manner, automation of certain processes is needed. JAMIA is a "generalist" journal for biomedical informatics. Its articles reflect the wide range of topics in informatics. In this study, we retrieved Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and citations of JAMIA articles published between 2009 and 2014. We use tensors (i.e., multidimensional arrays) to represent the interaction among topics, time and citations, and applied tensor decomposition to automate the analysis. The trends represented by tensors were then carefully interpreted and the results were compared with previous findings based on manual topic analysis. A list of most cited JAMIA articles, their topics, and publication trends over recent years is presented. The analyses confirmed previous studies and showed that, from 2012 to 2014, the number of articles related to MeSH terms Methods, Organization & Administration, and Algorithms increased significantly both in number of publications and citations. Citation trends varied widely by topic, with Natural Language Processing having a large number of citations in particular years, and Medical Record Systems, Computerized remaining a very popular topic in all years. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to simulate observed rainfall characteristics over the Western Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meher, J. K.; Das, L.

2017-12-01

The Western Himalayan Region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902-2005. Annual and seasonal rainfall change over WHR of India was estimated using 22 rain gauge station rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The performance of 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) and 42 GCMs from CMIP5 was evaluated through multiple analysis: the evaluation of the mean annual cycle, annual cycles of interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends and signal-to-noise ratio. In general, CMIP5 GCMs were more skillful in terms of simulating the annual cycle of interannual variability compared to CMIP3 GCMs. The CMIP3 GCMs failed to reproduce the observed trend whereas 50% of the CMIP5 GCMs reproduced the statistical distribution of short-term (30-years) trend-estimates than for the longer term (99-years). GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were able to simulate the spatial distribution of observed rainfall in pre-monsoon and winter months. Based on performance, each model of CMIP3 and CMIP5 was given an overall rank, which puts the high resolution version of the MIROC3.2 model (MIROC3.2 hires) and MIROC5 at the top in CMIP3 and CMIP5 respectively. Robustness of the ranking was judged through a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that ranks were independent during the process of adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed that trend analysis was not a robust method of judging performances of the model as compared to other methods.

Short-Term Enrollment Forecasting for Accurate Budget Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salley, Charles D.

1979-01-01

Reliance on enrollment trend models for revenue projections has led to a scenario of alternating overbudgeted and underbudgeted years. A study of a large, public university indicates that time series analysis should be used instead to anticipate the orderly seasonal and cyclical patterns that are visible in a period of moderate trend growth.…

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Sources and preparation of data for assessing trends in concentrations of pesticides in streams of the United States, 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Jeffrey D.; Eberle, Michael; Nakagaki, Naomi

2011-01-01

This report updates a previously published water-quality dataset of 44 commonly used pesticides and 8 pesticide degradates suitable for a national assessment of trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the United States. Water-quality samples collected from January 1992 through September 2010 at stream-water sites of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and the National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) were compiled, reviewed, selected, and prepared for trend analysis. The principal steps in data review for trend analysis were to (1) identify analytical schedule, (2) verify sample-level coding, (3) exclude inappropriate samples or results, (4) review pesticide detections per sample, (5) review high pesticide concentrations, and (6) review the spatial and temporal extent of NAWQA pesticide data and selection of analytical methods for trend analysis. The principal steps in data preparation for trend analysis were to (1) select stream-water sites for trend analysis, (2) round concentrations to a consistent level of precision for the concentration range, (3) identify routine reporting levels used to report nondetections unaffected by matrix interference, (4) reassign the concentration value for routine nondetections to the maximum value of the long-term method detection level (maxLT-MDL), (5) adjust concentrations to compensate for temporal changes in bias of recovery of the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GCMS) analytical method, and (6) identify samples considered inappropriate for trend analysis. Samples analyzed at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) by the GCMS analytical method were the most extensive in time and space and, consequently, were selected for trend analysis. Stream-water sites with 3 or more water years of data with six or more samples per year were selected for pesticide trend analysis. The selection criteria described in the report produced a dataset of 21,988 pesticide samples at 212 stream-water sites. Only 21,144 pesticide samples, however, are considered appropriate for trend analysis.

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0.20 ppbv year-1) and winter (0.13 ± 0.10 ppbv year-1), respectively. The HHT spectral analysis identified four different stages with different positive trends, with the largest increase occurring around May 2000 and October 2010. The HHT results suggest that there were 2-4a, 7a and 11a periodicities in the time series of surface ozone at Waliguan. The results of this study can be used for assessments of climate and environment change and in the validation of chemistry-climate models.

The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Lindstrom, D P; Berhanu, B

1999-05-01

We examine recent fertility trends in Ethiopia for evidence of short- and long-term responses to famine, political events, and economic decline. We use retrospective data on children ever born from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey to estimate trends in annual marital conception probabilities, controlling for women's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The results of our analysis provide evidence of significant short-term declines in conception probabilities during years of famine and major political and economic upheaval. In the longer term, marital fertility in both urban and rural areas declined in the 1980s after increasing moderately in the 1970s.

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Temporal changes in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages in streams of the north-central and northeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sullivan, Daniel J.; May, Jason T.; Bell, Amanda H.; Beaulieu, Karen M.; Rice, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Many management agencies seek to evaluate temporal changes in aquatic assemblages at monitoring sites, but few have sites with ecological time series that are long enough for this purpose. Trends in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblage composition were assessed at 27 long-term monitoring sites in the north-central and northeastern United States. Temporal changes were identified using serial trend analysis. Sites with significant serial trends were further evaluated by relating explanatory environmental variables (e.g., streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) to changes in assemblage composition. Significant trends were found at 19 of 27 study sites; however, differences in the sensitivity of the aquatic fauna to environmental stressors were identified. For example, significant trends in fish assemblages were found at more sites (15 of 27) than for aquatic-invertebrate assemblages (10 of 27 sites). In addition, trends in the invertebrate assemblage were most often explained by changes in streamflow processes (e.g., duration and magnitude of low- and high-flows, streamflow variability, and annual rates of change), whereas trends in the fish assemblage were more related to changes in water chemistry. Results illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for the purpose of assessing temporal trends in aquatic assemblages. The ability to detect trends in assemblage composition and to attribute these changes to environmental factors is necessary to understand mechanistic pathways and to further our understanding of how incremental anthropogenic alterations modify aquatic assemblages over time. Finally, this study's approach to trends analysis can be used to better inform the design of monitoring programs as well as support the ongoing management needs of stakeholders, water-resource agencies, and policy makers.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Frequency Analysis of Modis Ndvi Time Series for Determining Hotspot of Land Degradation in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, E.; Sharav, S.; Sanjaa, T.; Lkhamjav, O.; Magsar, E.; Tuvdendorj, B.

2018-04-01

This study examines MODIS NDVI satellite imagery time series can be used to determine hotspot of land degradation area in whole Mongolia. The trend statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall was applied to a 16-year MODIS NDVI satellite imagery record, based on 16-day composited temporal data (from May to September) for growing seasons and from 2000 to 2016. We performed to frequency analysis that resulting NDVI residual trend pattern would enable successful determined of negative and positive changes in photo synthetically health vegetation. Our result showed that negative and positive values and generated a map of significant trends. Also, we examined long-term of meteorological parameters for the same period. The result showed positive and negative NDVI trends concurred with land cover types change representing an improve or a degrade in vegetation, respectively. Also, integrated the climate parameters which were precipitation and air temperature changes in the same time period seem to have had an affecting on huge NDVI trend area. The time series trend analysis approach applied successfully determined hotspot of an improvement and a degraded area due to land degradation and desertification.

Statistical evaluation of rainfall time series in concurrence with agriculture and water resources of Ken River basin, Central India (1901-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Meshram, Chandrashekhar; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Ambade, Balram

2017-12-01

Trend analysis of long-term rainfall records can be used to facilitate better agriculture water management decision and climate risk studies. The main objective of this study was to identify the existing trends in the long-term rainfall time series over the period 1901-2010 utilizing 12 hydrological stations located at the Ken River basin (KRB) in Madhya Pradesh, India. To investigate the different trends, the rainfall time series data were divided into annual and seasonal (i.e., pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter season) sub-sets, and a statistical analysis of data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen's slope approach was applied to identify the nature of the existing trends in rainfall series for the Ken River basin. The obtained results were further interpolated with the aid of the Quantum Geographic Information System (GIS) approach employing the inverse distance weighted approach. The results showed that the monsoon and the winter season exhibited a negative trend in rainfall changes over the period of study, and this was true for all stations, although the changes during the pre- and the post-monsoon seasons were less significant. The outcomes of this research study also suggest significant decreases in the seasonal and annual trends of rainfall amounts in the study period. These findings showing a clear signature of climate change impacts on KRB region potentially have implications in terms of climate risk management strategies to be developed during major growing and harvesting seasons and also to aid in the appropriate water resource management strategies that must be implemented in decision-making process.

Incidence and mortality trends of aspiration pneumonia in Parkinson's disease in the United States, 1979-2010.

PubMed

Akbar, Umer; Dham, Bhavpreet; He, Ying; Hack, Nawaz; Wu, Samuel; Troche, Michelle; Tighe, Patrick; Nelson, Eugene; Friedman, Joseph H; Okun, Michael S

2015-09-01

Careful examination of long-term analyses and trends is essential in understanding the medico-economic burden of this common complication. We sought to describe the long-term (32-year) trends of incidence and mortality in PD patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia (AsPNA). Incidence and mortality of AsPNA in hospitalized PD versus non-PD patients was assessed by logistic regression analysis applied to a national database between the years 1979 and 2010. Covariates such as age-decennium, gender, year AsPNA occurred, and the interactions with PD diagnosis were investigated. Rate of AsPNA and mortality over the 32-years was trended and compared. AsPNA occurred in 3.6% of PD patients and 1.0% of non-PD patients. The average mortality for PD patients was less (17% vs. 22%). Long-term (32-year) trends revealed a nearly 10-fold increase in incidence of AsPNA in PD (0.4% in 1979, 4.9% in 2010), decreasing mortality overtime, higher likelihood in males, and increasing average age of AsPNA patients (steeper increase in PD). All p-values<0.05. In regression analysis, each successive year had a slight increase in odds of AsPNA (OR 1.03 in PD, OR1.06 in non-PD). Trends over 32 years revealed a 10-fold increase in AsPNA among PD and non-PD patients, and an associated decrease in mortality. Our data suggest that PD patients are living longer, have slightly more AsPNA, but a lower mortality than was seen in past decades. Further research should investigate the causes of AsPNA in PD, and also potential interventions to decrease its occurrence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term stormwater quantity and quality analysis using continuous measurements in a French urban catchment.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Barraud, Sylvie; Castebrunet, Hélène; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Marmonier, Pierre

2015-11-15

The assessment of urban stormwater quantity and quality is important for evaluating and controlling the impact of the stormwater to natural water and environment. This study mainly addresses long-term evolution of stormwater quantity and quality in a French urban catchment using continuous measured data from 2004 to 2011. Storm event-based data series are obtained (716 rainfall events and 521 runoff events are available) from measured continuous time series. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to these event-based data series for trend detection. A lack of trend is found in rainfall and an increasing trend in runoff is detected. As a result, an increasing trend is present in the runoff coefficient, likely due to growing imperviousness of the catchment caused by urbanization. The event mean concentration of the total suspended solid (TSS) in stormwater does not present a trend, whereas the event load of TSS has an increasing tendency, which is attributed to the increasing event runoff volume. Uncertainty analysis suggests that the major uncertainty in trend detection results lies in uncertainty due to available data. A lack of events due to missing data leads to dramatically increased uncertainty in trend detection results. In contrast, measurement uncertainty in time series data plays a trivial role. The intra-event distribution of TSS is studied based on both M(V) curves and pollutant concentrations of absolute runoff volumes. The trend detection test reveals no significant change in intra-event distributions of TSS in the studied catchment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Spending on Training: An Analysis of the 1982 through 2008 Training Annual Industry Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carliner, Saul; Bakir, Ingy

2010-01-01

This article explores long-term trends in spending using data compiled from the "Training" magazine Annual Industry Survey from 1982 through 2008. It builds on literature that proposes spending on training is an investment that yields benefits--and that offers methods for demonstrating it. After adjusting for inflation, aggregate spending on…

15 CFR 2007.1 - Information required of interested parties in submitting requests for modifications in the last...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... duty-free treatment under the GSP have on competition and the business of the interest on whose behalf..., total quantity, value and trends in exports; (8) Information on exports to the United States in terms of... beneficiary countries and trends in their production and promotional activities; (9) Analysis of cost...

15 CFR 2007.1 - Information required of interested parties in submitting requests for modifications in the last...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... duty-free treatment under the GSP have on competition and the business of the interest on whose behalf..., total quantity, value and trends in exports; (8) Information on exports to the United States in terms of... beneficiary countries and trends in their production and promotional activities; (9) Analysis of cost...

Long-Term Care for People with Development Disabilities: A Critical Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palley, Howard A.; Van Hollen, Valerie

2000-01-01

Explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. Reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area.…

Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

2018-03-01

Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

Farallon de Medinilla seabird and Tinian moorhen analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Leopold, Christina R.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Juola, Franz

2015-01-01

This report assesses the trends in brown booby (Sula leucogaster), masked booby (S. dactylatra), and red-footed booby (S. sula) counts collected on Farallon de Medinilla and Mariana common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus guami) counts on Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to help elucidate patterns in bird numbers. During either monthly or quarterly surveys between 1997 and 2014 counts of all four bird species were recorded, generating a relatively noisy time series revealing inter-annual variation in index counts by as much as 1,000%. For the purposes of assessing long-term population trends across years we chose a single, species-specific month to assess trends. Doing so reduces the effect of intra-annual variation allowing the analysis to focus on inter-annual variation important to long-term trends assessment. There are clear fluctuations in the counts of all four species. Although the trends were non-significant, there is some evidence that masked and red-footed booby species have declined while brown booby and moorhen have increased.

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Analysis of Water-Quality Trends for Selected Streams in the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program, Michigan, 1998-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.; Fuller, Lori M.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2009-01-01

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began a long-term monitoring program to evaluate the water quality of most watersheds in Michigan. Major goals of this Water-Chemistry Monitoring Program were to identify streams exceeding or not meeting State or Federal water-quality standards and to assess if constituent concentrations reflecting water quality in these streams were increasing or decreasing over time. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2005 were analyzed to identify potential trends. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 31 sites across Michigan, 28 of which had sufficient data to analyze for trends. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test within the computer program ESTREND. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the state was for chloride. Chloride trends were detected at 8 of the 28 sites; trends at 7 sites were increasing and the trend at 1 site was decreasing. Although no trends were detected for various nitrogen species or phosphorus, these constituents were detected at levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations for nutrients in water. The results of the trend analysis will help to establish a baseline to evaluate future changes in water quality in Michigan streams.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

PubMed Central

Hegglin, M. I.; Plummer, D. A.; Shepherd, T. G.; Scinocca, J. F.; Anderson, J.; Froidevaux, L.; Funke, B.; Hurst, D.; Rozanov, A.; Urban, J.; von Clarmann, T.; Walker, K. A.; Wang, H. J.; Tegtmeier, S.; Weigel, K.

2017-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. PMID:29263751

Long Term Trend Analysis and Assessment of Water Quality in the Penchala River, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M. F.; Haris, H. B.; Mohd Sidek, L. B.

2014-12-01

Rapid urban expansion produces negative impacts on the natural environment, especially river water quality. Studies assessing long term changes of water quality have been recognized as a key tool for understanding ongoing processes in watersheds and for providing an essential background for evaluation of rapid changes within industrialized and populated urban areas. Unfortunately, only limited studies are available for developing countries such as Malaysia. Thus, a long term study was conducted to evaluate water quality trends at Pencala river basin that has undergone extensive land use changes related to industrial, agricultural and urban activities. Fifteen physical and chemical variables were analysed in river water samples collected every month over a period of 13 years, between 1997 and 2009. The trend study was performed using the Mann-Kendall Seasonal test and the Sen's Slope estimator. Results revealed that most water quality parameters showed a downward trend for yearly average concentration. The water quality index (WQI) for Pencala River was improved from Class V to Class IV, according to National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia. BOD, COD, NH3-N and SS show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative. Continued long-term and high frequency monitoring is necessary to establish plans and policies for effective water resources management.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data.

PubMed

Hegglin, M I; Plummer, D A; Shepherd, T G; Scinocca, J F; Anderson, J; Froidevaux, L; Funke, B; Hurst, D; Rozanov, A; Urban, J; von Clarmann, T; Walker, K A; Wang, H J; Tegtmeier, S; Weigel, K

2014-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

Long-term analysis of Zostera noltei: A retrospective approach for understanding seagrasses' dynamics.

PubMed

Calleja, Felipe; Galván, Cristina; Silió-Calzada, Ana; Juanes, José A; Ondiviela, Bárbara

2017-09-01

Long-term studies are necessary to establish trends and to understand seagrasses' spatial and temporal dynamic. Nevertheless, this type of research is scarce, as the required databases are often unavailable. The objectives of this study are to create a method for mapping the seagrass Zostera noltei using remote sensing techniques, and to apply it to the characterization of the meadows' extension trend and the potential drivers of change. A time series was created using a novel method based on remote sensing techniques that proved to be adequate for mapping the seagrass in the emerged intertidal. The meadows seem to have a decreasing trend between 1984 and the early 2000s, followed by an increasing tendency that represents a recovery in the extension area of the species. This 30-year analysis demonstrated the Z. noltei's recovery in the study site, similar to that in other estuaries nearby and contrary to the worldwide decreasing behavior of seagrasses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

A Comparison of Bridging Methods in the Analysis of NAEP Trends with the New Race Subgroup Definitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, J. Patrick; Setzer, J. Carl

2009-01-01

Recent changes to federal guidelines for the collection of data on race and ethnicity allow respondents to select multiple race categories. Redefining race subgroups in this manner poses problems for research spanning both sets of definitions. NAEP long-term trends have used the single-race subgroup definitions for over thirty years. Little is…

Trends in University Finances in the New Millennium, 2000/01-2012/13. CAUT Education Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Association of University Teachers, 2015

2015-01-01

Since the turn of the 21st century, universities in Canada have undergone significant changes. Student enrollment has exploded. This issue of the Canadian Association of University Teachers (CAUT) Education Review provides an analysis of the current state of university finances in Canada, as well as longer-term trends in university revenues and…

Progress and Challenges in Reducing Economic Distress in Appalachia: An Analysis of National and Regional Trends since 1960.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Lawrence E.; Bischak, Gregory A.

This report analyzes changes in the number of distressed counties in Appalachia since 1960, identifies macroeconomic trends associated with distress in Appalachia, and examines socioeconomic factors associated with long-term distress as well as factors that predict whether a county moved out of distress. These data are also compared with similar…

How is water-use efficiency of terrestrial ecosystems distributed and changing on Earth?

PubMed

Tang, Xuguang; Li, Hengpeng; Desai, Ankur R; Nagy, Zoltan; Luo, Juhua; Kolb, Thomas E; Olioso, Albert; Xu, Xibao; Yao, Li; Kutsch, Werner; Pilegaard, Kim; Köstner, Barbara; Ammann, Christof

2014-12-15

A better understanding of ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) will help us improve ecosystem management for mitigation as well as adaption to global hydrological change. Here, long-term flux tower observations of productivity and evapotranspiration allow us to detect a consistent latitudinal trend in WUE, rising from the subtropics to the northern high-latitudes. The trend peaks at approximately 51°N, and then declines toward higher latitudes. These ground-based observations are consistent with global-scale estimates of WUE. Global analysis of WUE reveals existence of strong regional variations that correspond to global climate patterns. The latitudinal trends of global WUE for Earth's major plant functional types reveal two peaks in the Northern Hemisphere not detected by ground-based measurements. One peak is located at 20° ~ 30°N and the other extends a little farther north than 51°N. Finally, long-term spatiotemporal trend analysis using satellite-based remote sensing data reveals that land-cover and land-use change in recent years has led to a decline in global WUE. Our study provides a new framework for global research on the interactions between carbon and water cycles as well as responses to natural and human impacts.

Detecting dryland degradation through the use of Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrell, A. L.; Evans, J. P.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Dryland degradation is an issue of international significance as dryland regions play a substantial role in global food production. Remotely sensed data provide the only long term, large scale record of changes within dryland ecosystems. The Residual Trend, or RESTREND, method is applied to satellite observations to detect dryland degradation. Whilst effective in most cases, it has been shown that the RESTREND method can fail to identify degraded pixels if the relationship between vegetation and precipitation has broken-down as a result of severe or rapid degradation. This study presents an extended version of the RESTREND methodology that incorporates the Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method to identify step changes in the time series that are related to significant structural changes in the ecosystem, e.g. land use changes. When applied to Australia, this new methodology, termed Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND), was able to detect degradation in 5.25% of pixels compared to only 2.0% for RESTREND alone. This modified methodology was then assessed in two regions with known histories of degradation where it was found to accurately capture both the timing and directionality of ecosystem change.

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Manlove, Kezia; Hollimon, Cynthia

2012-01-01

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

Trends in nitrate and dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water, Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, 1985-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosen, Michael R.

2003-01-01

Analysis of trends in nitrate and total dissolved-solids concentrations over time in Carson Valley, Nevada, indicates that 56 percent of 27 monitoring wells that have long-term records of nitrate concentrations show increasing trends, 11 percent show decreasing trends, and 33 percent have not changed. Total dissolved-solids concentrations have increased in 52 percent of these wells and are stable in 48 percent. None of these wells show decreasing trends in total dissolved-solids concentrations. The wells showing increasing trends in nitrate and total dissolved-solids concentrations were always in areas that use septic waste-disposal systems. Therefore, the primary cause of these increases is likely the increase in septic-tank usage over the past 40 years.

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

Assessment of the effects of horizontal grid resolution on long ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions. The National Exposure Research Laboratory’s Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA’s mission to protect human health and the environment.

Trend of Occupational Injuries/Diseases in Pakistan: Index Value Analysis of Injured Employed Persons from 2001-02 to 2012-13.

PubMed

Abbas, Mohsin

2015-09-01

The present study aimed to analyze the index value trends of injured employed persons (IEPs) covered in Pakistan Labour Force Surveys from 2001-02 to 2012-13. The index value method based on reference years and reference groups was used to analyze the IEP trends in terms of different criteria such as gender, area, employment status, industry types, occupational groups, types of injury, injured body parts, and treatment received. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was also performed to investigate the inter-relationship of different occupational variables. The values of IEP increased at the end of the studied year in industry divisions such as agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing, followed by in manufacturing and construction industry divisions. People associated with major occupations (such as skilled agricultural and fishery workers) and elementary (unskilled) occupations were found to be at an increasing risk of occupational injuries/diseases with an increasing IEP trend. Types of occupational injuries such as sprain or strain, superficial injury, and dislocation increased during the studied years. Major injured parts of body such as upper limb and lower limb found with increasing trend. Types of treatment received, including hospitalization and no treatment, were found to decrease. Increased IEP can be justified due to inadequate health care facilities, especially in rural areas by increased IEP in terms of gender, areas, received treatment, occupational groups and employment status as results found after Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. The increasing trend in the IEP% of the total employed persons due to agrarian activities shows that there is a need to improve health care setups in rural areas of Pakistan.

Trend of Occupational Injuries/Diseases in Pakistan: Index Value Analysis of Injured Employed Persons from 2001–02 to 2012–13

PubMed Central

Abbas, Mohsin

2015-01-01

Background The present study aimed to analyze the index value trends of injured employed persons (IEPs) covered in Pakistan Labour Force Surveys from 2001–02 to 2012–13. Methods The index value method based on reference years and reference groups was used to analyze the IEP trends in terms of different criteria such as gender, area, employment status, industry types, occupational groups, types of injury, injured body parts, and treatment received. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was also performed to investigate the inter-relationship of different occupational variables. Results The values of IEP increased at the end of the studied year in industry divisions such as agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing, followed by in manufacturing and construction industry divisions. People associated with major occupations (such as skilled agricultural and fishery workers) and elementary (unskilled) occupations were found to be at an increasing risk of occupational injuries/diseases with an increasing IEP trend. Types of occupational injuries such as sprain or strain, superficial injury, and dislocation increased during the studied years. Major injured parts of body such as upper limb and lower limb found with increasing trend. Types of treatment received, including hospitalization and no treatment, were found to decrease. Increased IEP can be justified due to inadequate health care facilities, especially in rural areas by increased IEP in terms of gender, areas, received treatment, occupational groups and employment status as results found after Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. Conclusion The increasing trend in the IEP% of the total employed persons due to agrarian activities shows that there is a need to improve health care setups in rural areas of Pakistan. PMID:26929831

Comparative Analysis of the Long-term Trends of the Surface Ozone Concentration at Elevated Sites in the Alps and in Caucasus Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasova, O. A.; Staehelin, J.; Prevot, A. S.; Senik, I. A.; Sosonkin, M. G.; Cui, J.

2007-12-01

Analysis of the long-term surface ozone records of two mountain sites, namely Kislovodsk High Mountain Station (KHMS) in Caucasus, Russia (43.7°N, 42.7°E, 2070 asl.) and Jungfraujoch (JFJ) in Switzerland (46.5°N, 7.9°E, 3580m asl) will be presented. A strong increase in ozone concentration (up +0.46±0.11ppb/year) was found at JFJ while ozone significantly deceased at KHMS (-0.65 ±0.09 ppb/year) during 1990-2005. We will compare trends values for earlier years (1990-2001) and for the latter ones (1993-2005). Among the possible reasons of the trends difference the impact of atmospheric transport is studied. Both vertical and horizontal components are considered in connection with ozone concentration trends. Transport analysis is based on 3D trajectories using LAGRANTO. There was no substantial difference in trends detected for different PV-levels or PBL filtered cases, while the main difference has been found in the source areas of the air masses at the two locations and inside different advection sectors at the each particular site. Trends will be compared (for the two receptor sites and two periods) for filtered subsets of upper tropospheric/stratospheric cases (based on PV and trajectory altitude), cases impacted by Planetary Boundary Layer (based on PBL height) and in different horizontal advection clusters. The work is financially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (JRP IB7320-110831), European Commission (Marie-Curie IIF project N 039905 - FP6-2005-Mobility-7) and Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects 06-05-64427 and 06-05-65308) and contributes to ACCENT T&TP project.

Water-quality trends in the nation's rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Alexander, R.B.; Wolman, M.G.

1987-01-01

Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U.S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U. S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Impact evaluation of Morgantown PRT 1975-1976 ridership: Interim Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-06-01

An analysis of the ridership levels of the Morgantown PRT system during its : initial period of operation, the 1975-1976 academic year, is presented. PRT ridership : by day, weekly ridership trends in terms of exogeneous events, the influence of : fe...

The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

2017-04-01

Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

Accounting for variation in designing greenhouse experiments with special reference to greenhouses containing plants on conveyor systems

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There are a number of unresolved issues in the design of experiments in greenhouses. They include whether statistical designs should be used and, if so, which designs should be used. Also, are there thigmomorphogenic or other effects arising from the movement of plants on conveyor belts within a greenhouse? A two-phase, single-line wheat experiment involving four tactics was conducted in a conventional greenhouse and a fully-automated phenotyping greenhouse (Smarthouse) to investigate these issues. Results and discussion Analyses of our experiment show that there was a small east–west trend in total area of the plants in the Smarthouse. Analyses of the data from three multiline experiments reveal a large north–south trend. In the single-line experiment, there was no evidence of differences between trios of lanes, nor of movement effects. Swapping plant positions during the trial was found to decrease the east–west trend, but at the cost of increased error variance. The movement of plants in a north–south direction, through a shaded area for an equal amount of time, nullified the north–south trend. An investigation of alternative experimental designs for equally-replicated experiments revealed that generally designs with smaller blocks performed best, but that (nearly) trend-free designs can be effective when blocks are larger. Conclusions To account for variation in microclimate in a greenhouse, using statistical design and analysis is better than rearranging the position of plants during the experiment. For the relocation of plants to be successful requires that plants spend an equal amount of time in each microclimate, preferably during comparable growth stages. Even then, there is no evidence that this will be any more precise than statistical design and analysis of the experiment, and the risk is that it will not be successful at all. As for statistical design and analysis, it is best to use either (i) smaller blocks, (ii) (nearly) trend-free arrangement of treatments with a linear trend term included in the analysis, or, as a last resort, (iii) blocks of several complete rows with trend terms in the analysis. Also, we recommend that the greenhouse arrangement parallel that in the Smarthouse, but with randomization where appropriate. PMID:23391282

Providing long-term trend and gravimetric factor at Chandler period from superconducting gravimeter records by using Singular Spectrum Analysis along with its multivariate extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszczynska, M.; Rosat, S.; Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.

2017-12-01

In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension MSSA (Multichannel SSA) were used to estimate long-term trend and gravimetric factor at the Chandler wobble frequency from superconducting gravimeter (SG) records. We have used data from seven stations located worldwide and contributing to the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service (IGETS). The timespan ranged from 15 to 19 years. Before applying SSA and MSSA, we had removed local tides, atmospheric (ECMWF data), hydrological (MERRA2 products) loadings and non-tidal ocean loading (ECCO2 products) effects. In the first part of analysis, we used the SSA approach in order to estimate the long-term trends from SG observations. We use the technique based on the classical Karhunen-Loève spectral decomposition of time series into long-term trend, oscillations and noise. In the second part, we present the determination of common time-varying pole tide (annual and Chandler wobble) to estimate gravimetric factor from SG time series using the MSSA approach. The presented method takes advantage over traditional methods like Least Squares Estimation by determining common modes of variability which reflect common geophysical field. We adopted a 6-year lag-window as the optimal length to extract common seasonal signals and the Chandler components of the Earth polar motion. The signals characterized by annual and Chandler wobble account for approximately 62% of the total variance of residual SG data. Then, we estimated the amplitude factors and phase lags of Chandler wobble with respect to the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) polar motion observations. The resulting gravimetric factors at the Chandler Wobble period are finally compared with previously estimates. A robust estimate of the gravimetric Earth response to the Chandlerian component of the polar motion is required to better constrain the mantle anelasticity at this frequency and hence the attenuation models of the Earth interior.

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Seasonal trends of light-saturated net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of loblolly pine trees grown in contrasting environments of nutrition, water and carbon dioxide

Treesearch

Ramesh Murthy; Stanley J. Zarnoch; P.M. Dougherty

1997-01-01

Repeated measures analysis was used to evaluate the effect of long-term CO2 enhancement on seasonal trends of light-saturated rates of net photosynthesis (Asat) and stomatal conductance to water vapour (gsat) of 9-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.; trees grown in a 2x2...

State Education Trends: Academic Performance and Spending over the Past 40 Years. Policy Analysis No. 746

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in academic performance and spending are valuable tools for evaluating past education policies and informing current ones. But such data have been scarce at the state level, where the most important education policy decisions are made. State spending data exist reaching back to the 1960s, but the figures have been scattered across…

Timber products output and timber harvests in Alaska: projections for 1997-2010.

Treesearch

David J. Brooks; Richard W. Haynes

1997-01-01

Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for raw material, and timber harvest by owner are developed from a trend-based analysis. These projections are revisions of projections made in 1990 and again in 1994, and reflect the consequences of recent changes in the Alaska forest sector and long-term trends in markets for Alaska products. With the...

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (i) an increase in ELOs and (ii) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (iii) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Text Analysis of Chemistry Thesis and Dissertation Titles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scalfani, Vincent F.

2017-01-01

Programmatic text analysis can be used to understand patterns and reveal trends in data that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to uncover with manual coding methods. This work uses programmatic text analysis, specifically term frequency counts, to study nearly 10,000 chemistry thesis and dissertation titles from 1911-2015. The thesis and…

Eczema, Atopic Dermatitis, or Atopic Eczema: Analysis of Global Search Engine Trends.

PubMed

Xu, Shuai; Thyssen, Jacob P; Paller, Amy S; Silverberg, Jonathan I

The lack of standardized nomenclature for atopic dermatitis (AD) creates challenges for scientific communication, patient education, and advocacy. We sought to determine the relative popularity of the terms eczema, AD, and atopic eczema (AE) using global search engine volumes. A retrospective analysis of average monthly search volumes from 2014 to 2016 of Google, Bing/Yahoo, and Baidu was performed for eczema, AD, and AE in English and 37 other languages. Google Trends was used to determine the relative search popularity of each term from 2006 to 2016 in English and the top foreign languages, German, Turkish, Russian, and Japanese. Overall, eczema accounted for 1.5 million monthly searches (84%) compared with 247 000 searches for AD (14%) and 44 000 searches for AE (2%). For English language, eczema accounted for 93% of searches compared with 6% for AD and 1% for AE. Search popularity for eczema increased from 2006 to 2016 but remained stable for AD and AE. Given the ambiguity of the term eczema, we recommend the universal use of the next most popular term, AD.

An Ongoing Shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheon, S. H.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; Nerem, R. S.; Leben, R. R.; Kim, K. Y.

2016-12-01

According to the satellite altimeter data, local sea level trends have shown considerable diversity spatially as well as temporally. In particular, dramatic changes in sea level in the Pacific have been observed throughout the altimeter record, with high trends in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and comparatively lower trends in the eastern Pacific. In recent years, however, a shift appears to be occurring, with falling trends in the (WTP) and rising trends in the eastern tropical and northeastern Pacific (ETP and NEP). From a planning perspective, it is important to figure out whether these sharp changes are part of a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level. In this study, we distinguish the origins of the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is applied to separate the properties of the recent sea level change in the Pacific Ocean. From the CSEOF analysis results, we point out two dominant modes of sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. The first mode is related to the biennial oscillation associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other is related to lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. Considering a relatively high correlation between recent sea level change and the low-frequency mode, we suggest that the low-frequency mode has played a dominant role in the sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. Using a reconstructed sea level dataset, we examine the variability of this low-frequency mode in the past, and find similar periods of dramatic sea level change in the Pacific. Based on the sea level record of the last five years and according to the analysis, we conclude that in the coming decades, higher sea level trends off the U.S. West Coast should be expected, while reduced trends in the WTP will likely be observed.

Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toro A., Richard; Araya, Consuelo; Labra O., Felipe; Morales, Luis; Morales, Raúl G. E.; Leiva G., Manuel A.

2017-12-01

South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from -0.3 to -4% dec-1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than -10% dec-1 was found at high latitudes (1980-1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of -2.0 ± 0.6% dec-1 at latitudes below 40° S and -6.9 ± 2.0% dec-1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec-1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that at high latitudes, the main driver of interannual variability in the TOC is the total effective amount of halogens, followed by the eddy heat flux.

Bariatric surgery interest around the world: what Google Trends can teach us.

PubMed

Linkov, Faina; Bovbjerg, Dana H; Freese, Kyle E; Ramanathan, Ramesh; Eid, George Michel; Gourash, William

2014-01-01

Bariatric surgery may prove an effective weight loss option for those struggling with severe obesity, but it is difficult to determine levels of interest in such procedures at the population level through traditional approaches. Analysis of Google Trend information may give providers and healthcare systems useful information regarding Internet users' interest in bariatric procedures. The objective of this study was to gather Google Trend information on worldwide Internet searches for "bariatric surgery", "gastric bypass", "gastric sleeve", "gastric plication", and "lap band" from 2004-2012 and to explore temporal relationships with relevant media events, economic variations, and policy modifications. Data were collected using Google Trends. Trend analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel Version 14.3.5 and Minitab V.16.0. Trend analyses showed that total search volume for the term "bariatric surgery" has declined roughly 25% since January 2004, although interest increased approximately 5% from 2011 to 2012. Interest in lap band procedures declined 30% over the past 5 years, while "gastric sleeve" has increased 15%. Spikes in search numbers show an association with events such as changing policy and insurance guidelines and media coverage for bariatric procedures. This report illustrates that variations in Internet search volume for terms related to bariatric surgery are multifactorial in origin. Although it is impossible to ascertain if reported Internet search volume is based on interest in potentially undergoing bariatric surgery or simply general interest, this analysis reveals that search volume appears to mirror real world events. Therefore, Google Trends could be a way to supplement understanding about interest in bariatric procedures. © 2013 American Society for Bariatric Surgery Published by American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery All rights reserved.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Thirty Years of Cloud Cover Patterns from Satellite Data: Fog in California's Central Valley and Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waller, E.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2012-12-01

In an effort to assess long term trends in winter fog in the Central Valley of California, custom maps of daily cloud cover from an approximately 30 year record of AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2012) satellite data were generated. Spatial rules were then used to differentiate between fog and general cloud cover. Differences among the sensors (e.g., spectral content, spatial resolution, overpass time) presented problems of consistency, but concurrent climate station data were used to resolve systematic differences in products, and to confirm long term trends. The frequency and extent of Central Valley ("Tule") fog appear to have some periodic oscillation, but also appear to be on the decline, especially in the Sacramento Valley and in the "shoulder" months of November and February. These results may have strong implications for growers of fruit and nut trees in the Central Valley dependent on winter chill hours that are augmented by the foggy daytime conditions. Conclusions about long term trends in fog are limited to daytime patterns, as results are primarily derived from reflectance-based products. Similar analyses of daytime cloud cover are performed on other areas of concern, such as the coastal fog belt of California. Large area and long term patterns here appear to have periodic oscillation similar to that for the Central Valley. However, the relatively coarse spatial resolution of the AVHRR LTDR (Long Term Data Record) data (~5-km) may be limiting for fine-scale analysis of trends.

Analysis and interpretation of water-quality trends in major U.S. rivers, 1974-81

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Richard A.; Alexander, Richard B.; Wolman, M. Gordon

1987-01-01

Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks are now of sufficient length to permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U.S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 water-quality measures for the period 1974--81 provide evidence of both improvement and deterioration in stream quality during a time of major changes in atmospheric and terrestrial influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in lead and fecal bacteria concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Changes in municipal waste treatment, leaded-gasoline consumption, highway-salt use, and nitrogen-fertilizer application, and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period, appear to be reflected in water-quality changes. There is evidence that atmospheric deposition of a variety of substances has played a surprisingly large role in water-quality changes.

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Public Awareness of Uterine Power Morcellation Through US Food and Drug Administration Communications: Analysis of Google Trends Search Term Patterns

PubMed Central

Jamnagerwalla, Juzar; Markowitz, Melissa A; Thum, D Joseph; McCarty, Philip; Medendorp, Andrew R; Raz, Shlomo; Kim, Ja-Hong

2018-01-01

Background Uterine power morcellation, where the uterus is shred into smaller pieces, is a widely used technique for removal of uterine specimens in patients undergoing minimally invasive abdominal hysterectomy or myomectomy. Complications related to power morcellation of uterine specimens led to US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) communications in 2014 ultimately recommending against the use of power morcellation for women undergoing minimally invasive hysterectomy. Subsequently, practitioners drastically decreased the use of morcellation. Objective We aimed to determine the effect of increased patient awareness on the decrease in use of the morcellator. Google Trends is a public tool that provides data on temporal patterns of search terms, and we correlated this data with the timing of the FDA communication. Methods Weekly relative search volume (RSV) was obtained from Google Trends using the term “morcellation.” Higher RSV corresponds to increases in weekly search volume. Search volumes were divided into 3 groups: the 2 years prior to the FDA communication, a 1-year period following, and thereafter, with the distribution of the weekly RSV over the 3 periods tested using 1-way analysis of variance. Additionally, we analyzed the total number of websites containing the term “morcellation” over this time. Results The mean RSV prior to the FDA communication was 12.0 (SD 15.8), with the RSV being 60.3 (SD 24.7) in the 1-year after and 19.3 (SD 5.2) thereafter (P<.001). The mean number of webpages containing the term “morcellation” in 2011 was 10,800, rising to 18,800 during 2014 and 36,200 in 2017. Conclusions Google search activity about morcellation of uterine specimens increased significantly after the FDA communications. This trend indicates an increased public awareness regarding morcellation and its complications. More extensive preoperative counseling and alteration of surgical technique and clinician practice may be necessary. PMID:29699965

Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Rocco, Stefania Di; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Joerg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; de Backer, Hugo; Koehler, Ulf; Krzyścin, Janusz; Vaníček, Karel

2011-11-01

We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear ‘fingerprints’ of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector.

National Trends in Trace Metals Concentrations in Ambient Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M. C.; Hafner, H. R.; Charrier, J. G.

2007-12-01

Ambient measurements of trace metals identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2006 were analyzed for long-term trends. Trace metals analyzed include lead, manganese, arsenic, chromium, nickel, cadmium, and selenium. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Trend periods were required to be at least five years. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time or spatially. In addition, routine ambient monitoring methods had method detection limits (MDLs) too high to adequately measure concentrations for trends analysis. Differences between measurement methods at urban and rural sites also confound trends analyses. Improvements in MDLs, and a better understanding of comparability between networks, are needed to better quantify trends in trace metal concentrations in the future.

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China

PubMed Central

He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Zeitgeists and development trends in long-term care facility design.

PubMed

Wang, Chia-Hui; Kuo, Nai-Wen

2006-06-01

Through literature analysis, in-depth interviews, and the application of the Delphi survey, this study explored long-term care resident priorities with regard to long-term care facility design in terms of both physical and psychological needs. This study further clarified changing trends in long-term care concepts; illustrated the impact that such changes are having on long-term care facility design; and summarized zeitgeists related to the architectural design of long-term care facilities. Results of our Delphi survey indicated the following top five priorities in long-term care facility design: (1) creating a home-like feeling; (2) adhering to Universal Design concepts; (3) providing well-defined private sleeping areas; (4) providing adequate social space; and (5) decentralizing residents' rooms into clusters. The three major zeitgeists related to long-term care facility design include: (1) modern long-term care facilities should abandon their traditional "hospital" image and gradually reposition facilities into homelike settings; (2) institution-based care for the elderly should be de-institutionalized under the concept of aging-in-place; and (3) living clusters, rather than traditional hospital-like wards, should be designed into long-term care facilities.

Economic Recession and Obesity-Related Internet Search Behavior in Taiwan: Analysis of Google Trends Data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Obesity is highly correlated with the development of chronic diseases and has become a critical public health issue that must be countered by aggressive action. This study determined whether data from Google Trends could provide insight into trends in obesity-related search behaviors in Taiwan. Objective Using Google Trends, we examined how changes in economic conditions—using business cycle indicators as a proxy—were associated with people’s internet search behaviors related to obesity awareness, health behaviors, and fast food restaurants. Methods Monthly business cycle indicators were obtained from the Taiwan National Development Council. Weekly Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) weighted index data were accessed and downloaded from Yahoo Finance. The weekly relative search volumes (RSV) of obesity-related terms were downloaded from Google Trends. RSVs of obesity-related terms and the TWSE from January 2007 to December 2011 (60 months) were analyzed using correlation analysis. Results During an economic recession, the RSV of obesity awareness and health behaviors declined (r=.441, P<.001; r=.593, P<.001, respectively); however, the RSV for fast food restaurants increased (r=−.437, P<.001). Findings indicated that when the economy was faltering, people tended to be less likely to search for information related to health behaviors and obesity awareness; moreover, they were more likely to search for fast food restaurants. Conclusions Macroeconomic conditions can have an impact on people’s health-related internet searches. PMID:29625958

Economic Recession and Obesity-Related Internet Search Behavior in Taiwan: Analysis of Google Trends Data.

PubMed

Wang, Ho-Wei; Chen, Duan-Rung

2018-04-06

Obesity is highly correlated with the development of chronic diseases and has become a critical public health issue that must be countered by aggressive action. This study determined whether data from Google Trends could provide insight into trends in obesity-related search behaviors in Taiwan. Using Google Trends, we examined how changes in economic conditions-using business cycle indicators as a proxy-were associated with people's internet search behaviors related to obesity awareness, health behaviors, and fast food restaurants. Monthly business cycle indicators were obtained from the Taiwan National Development Council. Weekly Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) weighted index data were accessed and downloaded from Yahoo Finance. The weekly relative search volumes (RSV) of obesity-related terms were downloaded from Google Trends. RSVs of obesity-related terms and the TWSE from January 2007 to December 2011 (60 months) were analyzed using correlation analysis. During an economic recession, the RSV of obesity awareness and health behaviors declined (r=.441, P<.001; r=.593, P<.001, respectively); however, the RSV for fast food restaurants increased (r=-.437, P<.001). Findings indicated that when the economy was faltering, people tended to be less likely to search for information related to health behaviors and obesity awareness; moreover, they were more likely to search for fast food restaurants. Macroeconomic conditions can have an impact on people's health-related internet searches. ©Ho-Wei Wang, Duan-Rung Chen. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 06.04.2018.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

Treesearch

Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

2012-01-01

At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and...

Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

PubMed

Hyslop, Nicole P; Trzepla, Krystyna; White, Warren H

2015-08-04

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).

Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before the 1980s over the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerefos, C. S.; Tourpali, K.; Zanis, P.; Eleftheratos, K.; Repapis, C.; Goodman, A.; Wuebbles, D.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Luterbacher, J.

2014-01-01

This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes since 1958 for the region extending from the lower troposphere up to the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses between specific pressure levels. Layer mean temperatures from thickness improve homogeneity in both space and time and reduce uncertainties in the trend analysis. Datasets used include the NCEP/NCAR I reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde datasets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the time interval of our study 1958-2011 can be divided in two distinct sub-periods of long term temperature variability and trends; before and after 1980s. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, non-significant trends or slight cooling trends prevail in the lower troposphere (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade-1 for NCEP and -0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade-1 for RICH). The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming trends (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade-1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a persistent cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980s period (-0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade-1 for NCEP, -0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade-1 for RICH and -0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade-1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980s period (-0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade-1 for NCEP, -0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade-1 for RICH and -0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade-1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere is a persistent feature from the tropics up to 60 north for all months. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes are reducing the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with re-analysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after the 1980s by -0.33 °C decade-1; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere modelled trends are generally lower than re-analysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before the 1980s, which it appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. Hence it may be postulated that the stratosphere could have provided an early warning of man-made climate change. The suitability for early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere vs. the upper troposphere low frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long term tropopause variability related to human induced global warming.

Analysis of Financial Markets' Fluctuation by Textual Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kiyoshi; Goto, Takashi; Matsui, Tohgoroh

In this study, we proposed a new text-mining methods for long-term market analysis. Using our method, we analyzed monthly price data of financial markets; Japanese government bond market, Japanese stock market, and the yen-dollar market. First we extracted feature vectors from monthly reports of Bank of Japan. Then, trends of each market were estimated by regression analysis using the feature vectors. As a result, determination coefficients were over 75%, and market trends were explained well by the information that was extracted from textual data. We compared the predictive power of our method among the markets. As a result, the method could estimate JGB market best and the stock market is the second.

Public Interest in Breast Augmentation: Analysis and Implications of Google Trends Data.

PubMed

Wilson, Stelios C; Daar, David A; Sinno, Sammy; Levine, Steven M

2018-06-01

Breast augmentation is the most common aesthetic surgery performed in the United States (US) annually. Analysis of Google Trends (GT) data may give plastic surgeons useful information regarding worldwide, national, and regional interest for breast augmentation and other commonly performed aesthetic surgeries. Data were collected using GT for breast augmentation and associated search terms from January 2004 to May 2017. Case volume was obtained from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS) annual reports for the calendar year 2005-2016. Trend analysis showed that total search term volume for breast augmentation and breast implants gradually decreased worldwide and in the US over the study period while the search term boob job slowly increased. Univariate linear regression demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation between average annual Google search volume of "breast augmentation" and the annual volume of breast augmentations performed in the US according to ASPS data (R 2  = 0.44, p = 0.018). There was no significant correlation between national volume of breast augmentations performed and search volume using the terms "breast implants" or "boob job" over time (p = 0.84 and p = 0.07, respectively). In addition, there appears to be country specific variation in interest based on time of year and peaks in interest following specific policies. To our knowledge, this is the first and only analysis of GT data in the plastic surgery literature to date. To that end, this study highlights this large and potentially powerful data set for plastic surgeons both in the US and around the world. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2014-09-01

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

PubMed

McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

2015-04-21

A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

Reciprocal Commitment in Academic Careers? Finnish Implications and International Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siekkinen, Taru; Kuoppala, Kari; Pekkola, Elias; Välimaa, Jussi

2017-01-01

This study explores the nature of reciprocal commitment in academic careers. The article is based on a survey conducted in autumn 2013 among fixed-term employees at eight major universities in Finland (N = 810). The analysis is focusing on researchers who have a doctoral degree and who are working on a fixed-term contract at their university (n =…

Analysis of Cracking in Jointed Plain Concrete Pavements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

This paper investigates the trends of longitudinal and transverse cracking in jointed concrete pavements based on Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) Program Strategic Study of Structural Factors for Rigid Pavements (SPS-2) data. The impacts of sla...

Content Analysis of Research Trends in Instructional Design Models: 1999-2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Göksu, Idris; Özcan, Kursat Volkan; Çakir, Recep; Göktas, Yuksel

2017-01-01

This study examines studies on instructional design models by applying content analysis. It covers 113 papers published in 44 international Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) and Science Citation Index (SCI) journals. Studies on instructional design models are explored in terms of journal of publication, preferred model, country where the study…

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

What is the impact of different VLBI analysis setups of the tropospheric delay on precipitable water vapor trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balidakis, Kyriakos; Nilsson, Tobias; Heinkelmann, Robert; Glaser, Susanne; Zus, Florian; Deng, Zhiguo; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The quality of the parameters estimated by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) are distorted by erroneous meteorological observations applied to model the propagation delay in the electrically neutral atmosphere. For early VLBI sessions with poor geometry, unsuitable constraints imposed on the a priori tropospheric gradients is a source of additional hassle of VLBI analysis. Therefore, climate change indicators deduced from the geodetic analysis, such as the long-term precipitable water vapor (PWV) trends, are strongly affected. In this contribution we investigate the impact of different modeling and parameterization of the propagation delay in the troposphere on the estimates of long-term PWV trends from geodetic VLBI analysis results. We address the influence of the meteorological data source, and of the a priori non-hydrostatic delays and gradients employed in the VLBI processing, on the estimated PWV trends. In particular, we assess the effect of employing temperature and pressure from (i) homogenized in situ observations, (ii) the model levels of the ERA Interim reanalysis numerical weather model and (iii) our own blind model in the style of GPT2w with enhanced parameterization, calculated using the latter data set. Furthermore, we utilize non-hydrostatic delays and gradients estimated from (i) a GNSS reprocessing at GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, rigorously considering tropospheric ties, and (ii)) direct ray-tracing through ERA Interim, as additional observations. To evaluate the above, the least-squares module of the VieVS@GFZ VLBI software was appropriately modified. Additionally, we study the noise characteristics of the non-hydrostatic delays and gradients estimated from our VLBI and GNSS analyses as well as from ray-tracing. We have modified the Theil-Sen estimator appropriately to robustly deduce PWV trends from VLBI, GNSS, ray-tracing and direct numerical integration in ERA Interim. We disseminate all our solutions in the latest Tropo-SINEX format.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

2015-03-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

PubMed

Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

2016-03-11

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures, such as restrictions to the access to firearms, which had been implemented in Norway during the relevant time period.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Analysis of Ozone Trends and Spatial Variations in the North American Lower and Middle Troposphere from a Long-term Ozone Climatology Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Tarasick, D. W.; Mao, H.; Li, Y., , Dr; Osman, M.; Zhao, T.; Jung, J.; Fioletov, V.; Moeini, O.

2017-12-01

Ozone trends and spatial variations in the North American free troposphere from the 1970s to the 2000s are characterized, based on the newly developed Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST). TOST uses a special domain-filling technique with forward and backward trajectory calculations to fill in spatial gaps in ozonesonde data. TOST is resolved in latitude, longitude, and altitude so it can provide new information on the long-term variations of troposheric ozone in three dimensions. . Global trend calculations with sparse and irregularly-spaced ozonesonde data must contend with the problem of how to properly weight the data in a zonal or regional average. As TOST spreads the data according to dynamic meteorological information, in a zonal or regional average it will therefore weight the data according to the meteorologically-determined area that each site samples. Through four decades, the highest ozone concentrations in the lower and middle troposphere generally appeared over the central midlatitudes of North America. Longitudinally, ozone was lowest over the southern Pacific Ocean, intermediate over the North American continent, and highest in the outflow along the east coast. The overall ozone trends in the four decades averaged over North America are positive. In particular, there has been an increasing trend at high latitudes between 50-90°N in the North American middle troposphere. Our analysis suggests that this may be caused by influences from the stratosphere and from lower latitudes during the period. The trends from TOST are compared with the original ozonesonde data at selected stations and both datasets correlate closely.

Assessment of indexing trends with specific and general terms for herbal medicine.

PubMed

Bartol, Tomaz

2012-12-01

Concepts for medicinal plants are represented by a variety of associated general terms with specific indexing patterns in databases, which may not consistently reflect growth of records. The objectives of this study are to assess the development in databases by identifying general terms that describe herbal medicine with optimal retrieval recall and to identify possible special trends in co-occurrence of specific and general concepts. Different search strategies are tested in cab abstracts, medline and web of science. Specific terms (Origanum and Salvia) are employed. Relevant general terms (e.g. 'Plants, Medicinal', Phytotherapy, Herbal drugs) are identified, along with indexing trends and co-occurrences. Growth trends, in specific (narrower) terms, are similar among databases. General terms, however, exhibit dissimilar trends, sometimes almost opposing one another. Co-occurrence of specific and general terms is changing over time. General terms may not denote definite development of trends as the use of terms differs amongst databases, making it difficult to correctly assess possible numbers of relevant records. Perceived increase can, sometimes, be attributed to an increased occurrence of a more general term alongside the specific one. Thesaurus-controlled databases may yield more hits, because of 'up-posted' (broader) terms. Use of broader terms is helpful as it enhances retrieval of relevant documents. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

Total ozone trends and variability during 1979-2012 from merged data sets of various satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehade, W.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2014-07-01

The study presents a long-term statistical trend analysis of total ozone data sets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors contributing to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The total ozone column data set used here comprises the Solar Backscater Ultraviolet SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data set (MOD) V8.6, the merged data set of the Solar Backscaterr Ultraviolet, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument SBUV/TOMS/OMI (1979-2012) MOD V8.0 and the merged data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) (1995-2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty-six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, and the analysis explained most of the ozone variability to within 70 to 90%. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. The contribution from volcanic aerosols is only prominent during the major eruption periods (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo), and together with the ENSO signal, is more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle covers all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of the 1990s. From the EESC fits, statistically significant upward trends after 1997 were found in the extratropics, which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT) model (known as hockey stick) with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. In case of the SBUV merged V8.6 data the EESC and PWLT trends before and after 1997 are in good agreement (within 2 σ), however, the positive post-1997 linear trends from the PWLT regression are not significant within 2 σ. A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 merged time series (1979-2012) and a merged data set combining SBUV/SBUV-2 (1979-June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995-2012) as well as SBUV/TOMS/OMI MOD V8.0 (1979-2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone data sets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV/SBUV-2 merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite data sets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 with the MOD V8.0 and MOD8.6/GSG data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies as well as the linear EESC trends. On the other hand, the PWLT trends after 1997 show some differences, however, within the 2 σ error bars the PWLT trends agree with each other for all three data sets.

Long-term trends in railroad service and capacity for U.S. agriculture

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-11-01

In this paper, the long-term trends in railroad services and capacity for U.S. agriculture are identified and described, particularly in terms of what these trends portend for agricultural shippers absent any change in the economically deregulated en...

Long-term monitoring of black carbon across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzner, Rebecca D.; von Schneidemesser, Erika; Kuik, Friderike; Quedenau, Jörn; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Schmale, Julia

2018-07-01

Lately, black carbon (BC) has received significant attention due to its climate-warming properties and adverse health effects. Nevertheless, long-term observations in urban areas are scarce, most likely because BC monitoring is not required by environmental legislation. This, however, handicaps the evaluation of air quality models which can be used to assess the effectiveness of policy measures which aim to reduce BC concentrations. Here, we present a new dataset of atmospheric BC measurements from Germany constructed from over six million measurements at over 170 stations. Data covering the period between 1994 and 2014 were collected from twelve German Federal States and the Federal Environment Agency, quality checked and harmonized into a database with comprehensive metadata. The final data in original time resolution are available for download (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.881173) Our analysis focuses on 2009, the year with the largest data coverage with one single methodology, as well as on the relative changes in long-term trends over ten years. For 2009, we find that BC concentrations at traffic sites were at least twice as high as at urban background, industrial and rural sites. Weekly cycles are most prominent at traffic stations, however, the presence of differences in concentrations during the week and on weekends at other station types suggests that traffic plays an important role throughout the full network. Generally higher concentrations and weaker weekly cycles during the winter months point towards the influence of other sources such as domestic heating. Regarding the long-term trends, advanced statistical techniques allow us to account for instrumentation changes and to separate seasonal and long-term changes in our dataset. Analysis shows a downward trend in BC at nearly all locations and in all conditions, with a high level of confidence for the period of 2005-2014. In depth analysis indicates that background BC is decreasing slowly, while the occurrences of high concentrations are decreasing more rapidly. In summary, legislation - both in Europe and locally - to reduce particulate emissions and indirectly BC appear to be working, based on this analysis. Adverse human health and climate impacts are likely to be diminished because of the improvements in air quality.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

Multi-decade Measurements of the Long-Term Trends of Atmospheric Species by High-Spectral-Resolution Infrared Solar Absorption Spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.; Chiou, Linda; Goldman, Aaron; Hannigan, James W.

2010-01-01

Solar absorption spectra were recorded for the first time in 5 years with the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at the US National solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona, USA (31.91 N latitude, 111.61 W longitude, 2.09 km altitude). The solar absorption spectra cover 750-1300 and 1850-5000 cm(sup -1) and were recorded on 20 days during March-June 2009. The measurements mark the continuation of a long-term record of atmospheric chemical composition measurements that have been used to quantify seasonal cycles and long-term trends of both tropospheric and stratospheric species from observations that began i 1977. Fits to the measured spectra have been performed, and they indicate the spectra obtained since return to operational status are nearly free of channeling and the instrument line shape function is well reproduced taking into account the measurement parameters. We report updated time series measurements of total columns for six atmospheric species and their analysis for seasonal cycles and long-term trends. An sn example, the time series fit shows a decrease in the annual increase rate i Montreal-Protocol-regulated chlorofluorocarbon CCL2F2 from 1.51 plus or minus 0.38% yr(sup -1) at the beginning of the time span to -1.54 plus or minus 1.28 yr(sup -1) at the end of the time span, 1 sigma, and hence provides evidence for the impact of those regulations on the trend.

Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

2015-01-01

As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; P<0.001), statin use (0.18% per quarter; P=0.027), physiotherapy/occupational therapy assessment (0.25% per quarter; P<0.001), and 30-day mortality (0.06% per quarter; P<0.001). There are improvement trends in processes and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Brown, Stephen; Harrington, Brian A.; Morrison, R.I. Guy

2007-01-01

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Mining Twitter to Assess the Public Perception of the “Internet of Things”

PubMed Central

Yoshigoe, Kenji; Hicks, Amanda; Yuan, Jiawei; He, Zhe; Xie, Mengjun; Guo, Yi; Prosperi, Mattia; Salloum, Ramzi; Modave, François

2016-01-01

Social media analysis has shown tremendous potential to understand public's opinion on a wide variety of topics. In this paper, we have mined Twitter to understand the public's perception of the Internet of Things (IoT). We first generated the discussion trends of the IoT from multiple Twitter data sources and validated these trends with Google Trends. We then performed sentiment analysis to gain insights of the public’s attitude towards the IoT. As anticipated, our analysis indicates that the public's perception of the IoT is predominantly positive. Further, through topic modeling, we learned that public tweets discussing the IoT were often focused on business and technology. However, the public has great concerns about privacy and security issues toward the IoT based on the frequent appearance of related terms. Nevertheless, no unexpected perceptions were identified through our analysis. Our analysis was challenged by the limited fraction of tweets relevant to our study. Also, the user demographics of Twitter users may not be strongly representative of the population of the general public. PMID:27391760

Mining Twitter to Assess the Public Perception of the "Internet of Things".

PubMed

Bian, Jiang; Yoshigoe, Kenji; Hicks, Amanda; Yuan, Jiawei; He, Zhe; Xie, Mengjun; Guo, Yi; Prosperi, Mattia; Salloum, Ramzi; Modave, François

2016-01-01

Social media analysis has shown tremendous potential to understand public's opinion on a wide variety of topics. In this paper, we have mined Twitter to understand the public's perception of the Internet of Things (IoT). We first generated the discussion trends of the IoT from multiple Twitter data sources and validated these trends with Google Trends. We then performed sentiment analysis to gain insights of the public's attitude towards the IoT. As anticipated, our analysis indicates that the public's perception of the IoT is predominantly positive. Further, through topic modeling, we learned that public tweets discussing the IoT were often focused on business and technology. However, the public has great concerns about privacy and security issues toward the IoT based on the frequent appearance of related terms. Nevertheless, no unexpected perceptions were identified through our analysis. Our analysis was challenged by the limited fraction of tweets relevant to our study. Also, the user demographics of Twitter users may not be strongly representative of the population of the general public.

Comparison and covalidation of ozone anomalies and variability observed in SBUV(/2) and Umkehr northern midlatitude ozone profile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I.; Ahn, Changwoo; Bhartia, P. K.; Flynn, L. E.

2005-03-01

This analysis presents comparisons of upper-stratosphere ozone information observed by two independent systems: the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV and SBUV/2) satellite instruments, and ground-based Dobson spectrophotometers. Both the new SBUV Version 8 and the new UMK04 profile retrieval algorithms are optimized for studying long-term variability and trends in ozone. Trend analyses of the ozone time series from the SBUV(/2) data set are complex because of the multiple instruments involved, changes in the instruments' geo-location, and short periods of overlaps for inter-calibrations among different instruments. Three northern middle latitudes Dobson ground stations (Arosa, Boulder, and Tateno) are used in this analysis to validate the trend quality of the combined 25-year SBUV/2 time series, 1979 to 2003. Generally, differences between the satellite and ground-based data do not suggest any significant time-dependent shifts or trends. The shared features confirm the value of these data sets for studies of ozone variability.

Characteristics and trends of streamflow and dissolved solids in the upper Colorado River Basin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebermann, Timothy D.; Mueller, David K.; Kircher, James E.; Choquette, Anne F.

1989-01-01

Annual and monthly concentrations and loads of dissolved solids and major constituents were estimated for 70 streamflow-gaging stations in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Trends in streamflow, dissolved-solids concentrations, and dissolved-solids loads were identified. Nonparametric trend-analysis techniques were used to determine step trends resulting from human activities upstream and long-term monotonic trends. Results were compared with physical characteristics of the basin and historical water-resource development in the basin to determine source areas of dissolved solids and possible cause of trends. Mean annual dissolved-solids concentration increases from less than 100 milligrams per liter in the headwater streams to more than 500 milligrams per liter in the outflow from the Upper Colorado River Basin. All the major tributaries that have high concentrations of dissolved solids are downstream from extensive areas of irrigated agriculture. However, irrigation predated the period of record for most sites and was not a factor in many identified trends. Significant annual trends were identified for 30 sites. Most of these trends were related to transbasin exports, changes in land use, salinity-control practices, or reservoir development. The primary factor affecting streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration and load has been the construction of large reservoirs. Reservoirs have decreased the seasonal and annual variability of streamflow and dissolved solids in streams that drain the Gunnison and San Juan River basins. Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs have increased the dissolved-solids load in the Green River because of dissolution of mineral salts from the bank material. The largest trends occurred downstream from Lake Powell. However, the period of record since the completion of filling was too short to estimate the long-term effects of that reservoir.

The USGS National Streamflow Information Program and the importance of preserving long-term streamgages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Norris, J. Michael; Lent, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Long-term streamflow information is critical for use in several water-related areas that are important to humans and wildlife, including water management, computation of flood and drought flows for water infrastructure, and analysis of climate-related trends. Specific uses are many and diverse and range from informing water rights across state and international boundaries to designing dams and bridges.

Latent fluctuation periods and long-term forecasting of the level of Markakol lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madibekov, A. S.; Babkin, A. V.; Musakulkyzy, A.; Cherednichenko, A. V.

2018-01-01

The analysis of time series of the level of Markakol Lake by the method of “Periodicities” reveals in its variations the harmonics with the periods of 12 and 14 years, respectively. The verification forecasts of the lake level by the trend tendency and by its combination with these sinusoids were computed with the lead time of 5 and 10 years. The estimation of the forecast results by the new independent data permitted to conclude that forecasts by the combination of the sinusoids and trend tendency are better than by the trend tendency only. They are no worse than the mean value prediction.

Investigating the influence of rice crop irrigation on streamflow in the Ibicui river basin using trend analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, E. M. C. D.; Heatwole, C. H.; Paiva, J. B. D.; Paiva, R. C. D.

2012-04-01

Problems of water shortages and floods are often attributed to the damming of rivers, agriculture, mining, deforestation, forestry, urbanization, and other practices. In the south of Brazil, most river basins experience water deficit problems related to the indiscriminate use of water to irrigate rice. We present a statistical analysis of streamflow data of the Ibicuí Basin, to verify if there are significant trends in water availability related to the withdrawal of water for rice crop irrigation. The Ibicuí basin, located in the southwest of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has ~50,000 km2 drainage area. It is part of the Uruguai basin, and is characteristic of the Pampa biome. This analysis is based on twelve stream gauge stations with data covering the period of rice cultivation between 1970 and 2011. Records of daily flow data were standardized by subtracting the long-term monthly mean and then dividing by the long-term monthly standard deviation. Then for each month we calculated the flow for 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95% and 99% duration. Trends in these series were assessed using Mann Kendall test. The results showed that there are trends of increasing discharge for nine of the twelve analyzed stations, and in six of those nine stations, the increasing trend was statistically significant. Just three stations presented negative trends. The result for six stations that streamflow is increasing is surprising, because historically it has been assumed that there are deficits of water due to major withdrawals for rice irrigation during the growing season of the crop. River discharges are typically low in this withdrawal period of November to February, although precipitation is similar for all months of the year. Also, some studies using physical models have confirmed the impact of irrigation withdrawals on flow. But the decrease in flow due to irrigation withdrawals was not supported with this statistical analysis. However, analyzing the trend values for several time flow durations, it was observed that there was a reduction of the trends with the duration. Only two stations presented increasing trends with duration. Also, it could be verified that in a river with sequential stations, the trends showed that the Mann Kendall Zs decreased with irrigated area. For verifying if it is possible to see the difference with water withdrawals for irrigation of rice, the station that showed the highest increasing trend was chosen for simulating an increasing water withdrawal on up to 5% of the area in 2011. In this analysis, despite the simulated water withdrawals in this basin, the trend of the water flow was still increasing. However, comparing the current situation to one without water withdrawal for irrigation of rice, the increasing trend was lower with the corresponding Mann-Kendall Z value reduced by half. We conclude that for the Ibicuí Basin comparison of trends in the flow data does not clearly reflect the effect of water withdrawals for irrigation of rice.

Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

2017-12-01

The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical signals in crop insurance trends taking into account spatio-temporal characteristics. Based on stakeholder feedback, we also developed a web-based information browser to visualize and assess indemnity trends providing useful and usable knowledge to support informed land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

2010-01-01

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

Understanding Productivity Links: A Research Agenda.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, David

1981-01-01

This paper covers three fundamental aspects of productivity analysis: concepts, measurement issues, and a brief consideration of causal forces. It also explores recent trends in partial labor productivity, building on terms and concepts introduced in the first part of this article. (CT)

Identification of the effective water availability from streamflows in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Oliver; Gassmann, Matthias; Wegerich, Kai; Bauer, Melanie

2010-09-01

SummaryQuantitative estimates of the hydrologic effects of climate change are essential for understanding and solving potential transboundary water conflicts in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia. This paper introduces an identification of runoff generation processes and a detection of changes in hydrological regimes supporting Mann-Kendall trend analysis for streamflows. By this, the effective available and future water resources are identified for the Zerafshan. The results for the subbasins in the upper Zerafshan and for the reference station at the upper catchment outlet indicate that glacier melt is the most significant component of river runoff. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis confirms the regime analysis with the shift in the seasonality of the discharge. Furthermore, the results of the Kendall-Theil Robust Line for predicted long-term discharge trends show a decreasing annual discharge. The experience gained during this study emphasizes the fact that the summer flood, urgently required for the large irrigation projects downstream in Uzbekistan, is reduced and more water will be available in spring. Additionally, following the estimation of future discharges in 50 and 100 years the hydrological changes are affecting the seasonal water availability for irrigation. This analysis highlighted that water availability is decreasing and the timing of availability is changing. Hence, there will be more competition between upstream Tajikistan and downstream Uzbekistan. Planned projects within the basin might have to be reconsidered and the changed scenario of water availability needs to be properly taken into account for long-term basin scale water management.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

2017-12-01

Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

Trends and variations of pH and hardness in a typical semi-arid river in a monsoon climate region during 1985-2009.

PubMed

Hao, Shaonan; Li, Xuyong; Jiang, Yan; Zhao, Hongtao; Yang, Lei

2016-09-01

The rapid growth of urbanization and industrialization, along with dramatic climate change, has strongly influenced hydrochemical characteristics in recent decades in China and thus could cause the variation of pH and general total hardness of a river. To explore such variations and their potential influencing factors in a river of the monsoon climate region, we analyzed a long-term monitoring dataset of pH, SO4 (2-), NOx, general total hardness (GH), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), and Cl(-) in surface water and groundwater in the Luan River basin from 1985 to 2009. The nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to test the long-term trends of pH and GH. Relationship between the affecting factors, pH and GH were discussed. Results showed that pH showed a decreasing trend and that GH had an increasing trend in the long-term. Seasonal variation of pH and GH was mainly due to the typical monsoon climate. Results of correlation analysis showed that the unit area usage amounts of chemical fertilizer, NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were negatively correlated with pH in groundwater. In addition, mining activity affected GH spatial variation. Acid deposition, drought, and increasing the use of chemical fertilizers would contribute to the acidification trend, and mining activities would affect the spatial variation of GH. Variations of precipitation and runoff in semi-arid monsoon climate areas had significant influences on the pH and GH. Our findings implied that human activities played a critical role in river acidification in the semi-arid monsoon climate region of northern China.

Estimation of trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Barbie, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

National Water Quality Laboratory - A Profile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raese, Jon W.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) is a full-service laboratory that specializes in environmental analytical chemistry. The NWQL's primary mission is to support USGS programs requiring environmental analyses that provide consistent methodology for national assessment and trends analysis. The NWQL provides the following: high-quality chemical data; consistent, published, state-of-the-art methodology; extremely low-detection levels; high-volume capability; biological unit for identifying benthic invertebrates; quality assurance for determining long-term water-quality trends; and a professional staff.

Public Awareness of Uterine Power Morcellation Through US Food and Drug Administration Communications: Analysis of Google Trends Search Term Patterns.

PubMed

Wood, Lauren N; Jamnagerwalla, Juzar; Markowitz, Melissa A; Thum, D Joseph; McCarty, Philip; Medendorp, Andrew R; Raz, Shlomo; Kim, Ja-Hong

2018-04-26

Uterine power morcellation, where the uterus is shred into smaller pieces, is a widely used technique for removal of uterine specimens in patients undergoing minimally invasive abdominal hysterectomy or myomectomy. Complications related to power morcellation of uterine specimens led to US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) communications in 2014 ultimately recommending against the use of power morcellation for women undergoing minimally invasive hysterectomy. Subsequently, practitioners drastically decreased the use of morcellation. We aimed to determine the effect of increased patient awareness on the decrease in use of the morcellator. Google Trends is a public tool that provides data on temporal patterns of search terms, and we correlated this data with the timing of the FDA communication. Weekly relative search volume (RSV) was obtained from Google Trends using the term “morcellation.” Higher RSV corresponds to increases in weekly search volume. Search volumes were divided into 3 groups: the 2 years prior to the FDA communication, a 1-year period following, and thereafter, with the distribution of the weekly RSV over the 3 periods tested using 1-way analysis of variance. Additionally, we analyzed the total number of websites containing the term “morcellation” over this time. The mean RSV prior to the FDA communication was 12.0 (SD 15.8), with the RSV being 60.3 (SD 24.7) in the 1-year after and 19.3 (SD 5.2) thereafter (P<.001). The mean number of webpages containing the term “morcellation” in 2011 was 10,800, rising to 18,800 during 2014 and 36,200 in 2017. Google search activity about morcellation of uterine specimens increased significantly after the FDA communications. This trend indicates an increased public awareness regarding morcellation and its complications. More extensive preoperative counseling and alteration of surgical technique and clinician practice may be necessary. ©Lauren N Wood, Juzar Jamnagerwalla, Melissa A Markowitz, D Joseph Thum, Philip McCarty, Andrew R Medendorp, Shlomo Raz, Ja-Hong Kim. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 26.04.2018.

Interannual, solar cycle, and trend terms in middle atmospheric temperature time series from HALOE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remsberg, E. E.; Deaver, L. E.

2005-03-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) have been generated and analyzed for the period of 1991-2004 and for the mesosphere and upper stratosphere for latitude zones from 40N to 40S. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used for the analysis of the seasonal and the significant interannual and solar cycle (or decadal-scale) terms. An 11-yr solar cycle (SC) term of amplitude 0.5 to 1.7 K was found for the middle to upper mesosphere; its phase was determined by a Fourier fit to the de-seasonalized residual. This SC term is largest and has a lag of several years for northern hemisphere middle latitudes of the middle mesosphere, perhaps due to the interfering effects of wintertime wave dissipation. The SC response from the MLR models is weaker but essentially in-phase at low latitudes and in the southern hemisphere. An in-phase SC response term is also significant near the tropical stratopause with an amplitude of about 0.4 to 0.6 K, which is somewhat less than predicted from models. Both sub-biennial (688-dy) and QBO (800-dy) terms are resolved for the mid to upper stratosphere along with a decadal-scale term that is presumed to have a 13.5-yr period due to their predicted modulation. This decadal-scale term is out-of-phase with the SC during 1991-2004. However, the true nature and source of this term is still uncertain, especially at 5 hPa. Significant linear cooling trends ranging from -0.3 K to -1.1 K per decade were found in the tropical upper stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere. Trends have not emerged so far for the tropical mesosphere, so it is concluded that the cooling rates that have been resolved for the subtropics are likely upper limits. As HALOE-like measurements continue and their time series lengthen, it is anticipated that better accuracy can be achieved for these interannual, SC, and trend terms.

Google Trends terms reporting rhinitis and related topics differ in European countries.

PubMed

Bousquet, J; Agache, I; Anto, J M; Bergmann, K C; Bachert, C; Annesi-Maesano, I; Bousquet, P J; D'Amato, G; Demoly, P; De Vries, G; Eller, E; Fokkens, W J; Fonseca, J; Haahtela, T; Hellings, P W; Just, J; Keil, T; Klimek, L; Kuna, P; Lodrup Carlsen, K C; Mösges, R; Murray, R; Nekam, K; Onorato, G; Papadopoulos, N G; Samolinski, B; Schmid-Grendelmeier, P; Thibaudon, M; Tomazic, P; Triggiani, M; Valiulis, A; Valovirta, E; Van Eerd, M; Wickman, M; Zuberbier, T; Sheikh, A

2017-08-01

Google Trends (GT) searches trends of specific queries in Google and reflects the real-life epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. We compared Google Trends terms related to allergy and rhinitis in all European Union countries, Norway and Switzerland from 1 January 2011 to 20 December 2016. The aim was to assess whether the same terms could be used to report the seasonal variations of allergic diseases. Using the Google Trend 5-year graph, an annual and clear seasonality of queries was found in all countries apart from Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Malta. Different terms were found to demonstrate seasonality depending on the country - namely 'hay fever', 'allergy' and 'pollen' - showing cultural differences. A single set of terms cannot be used across all European countries, but allergy seasonality can be compared across Europe providing the above three terms are used. Using longitudinal data in different countries and multiple terms, we identified an awareness-related spike of searches (December 2016). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Satellite and Model Assessment of Regional Aerosol Trends and Potential Impacts on Clouds in the western North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongeward, A.; Li, Z.

2014-12-01

Aerosols and clouds contribute to atmospheric variability and to Earth's radiative balance, and while aerosol-cloud interactions have been studied in the past, long-term assessments of their regional interactions are only beginning to be realized. Changes in emissions and air quality policies as well as socioeconomic factors ultimately lead to changes in AOD (aerosol optical depth) with cascading effects on clouds and ultimately on the combined radiative effects where agreement is yet to be seen. In this work, an assessment of any trends observed in the aerosol loading over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the period of 2000 to 2012 is presented. Monthly mean data from NASA's MODIS instruments onboard both Terra and Aqua satellites are employed. Two aerosol models (GOCART and MERRAero) with the capability to model five individual aerosol species are also used and can separate anthropogenic from natural contributions to the total aerosol load and the aerosol trend. Preliminary results show two distinct regions of opposite trend in the satellite AOD over the western North Atlantic. From analysis of the model trends, the trends in these two regions are also of different origin: the negative AOD trend (ranging from -0.020 to -0.040 per decade) seen just off the eastern coast of the U.S. is of anthropogenic origin while the positive AOD trend (ranging from 0.015 to 0.030 per decade) seen in the south of the domain is of natural origins. Compelling evidence from a ground-based aerosol record (AERONET) as well as EPA emissions records corroborates the anthropogenic origin of the negative trend off the eastern U.S. coast. Finally, any trends seen in the cloud effective radius are explored to examine the presence of the first indirect effect (Twomey effect). The analysis from Aqua appears stronger and more coherent, likely a testament to its calibration stability relative to Terra. Statistical significance tests are performed for the 90% and 95% levels using the Student's t-test. This research can not only provided information for modeling and validation studies of aerosol trends but also act as an initial study into the long-term impacts of air quality improvement policies on the aerosol field, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the combined complex radiative effects.

Analysis on variability and trend in Antarctic sea ice albedo between 1983 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Minji; Kim, Hyun-cheol; Choi, Sungwon; Lee, Kyeong-sang; Han, Kyung-soo

2017-04-01

Sea ice is key parameter in order to understand the cryosphere climate change. Several studies indicate the different trend of sea ice between Antarctica and Arctic. Albedo is important factor for understanding the energy budget and factors for observing of environment changes of Cryosphere such as South Pole, due to it mainly covered by ice and snow with high albedo value. In this study, we analyzed variability and trend of long-term sea ice albedo data to understand the changes of sea ice over Antarctica. In addiction, sea ice albedo researched the relationship with Antarctic oscillation in order to determine the atmospheric influence. We used the sea ice albedo data at The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and Antarctic Oscillation data at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We analyzed the annual trend in albedo using linear regression to understand the spatial and temporal tendency. Antarctic sea ice albedo has two spatial trend. Weddle sea / Ross sea sections represent a positive trend (0.26% ˜ 0.04% yr-1) and Bellingshausen Amundsen sea represents a negative trend (- 0.14 ˜ -0.25%yr-1). Moreover, we performed the correlation analysis between albedo and Antarctic oscillation. As a results, negative area indicate correlation coefficient of - 0.3639 and positive area indicates correlation coefficient of - 0.0741. Theses results sea ice albedo has regional trend according to ocean. Decreasing sea ice trend has negative relationship with Antarctic oscillation, its represent a possibility that sea ice influence atmospheric factor.

Applying Metrological Techniques to Satellite Fundamental Climate Data Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolliams, Emma R.; Mittaz, Jonathan PD; Merchant, Christopher J.; Hunt, Samuel E.; Harris, Peter M.

2018-02-01

Quantifying long-term environmental variability, including climatic trends, requires decadal-scale time series of observations. The reliability of such trend analysis depends on the long-term stability of the data record, and understanding the sources of uncertainty in historic, current and future sensors. We give a brief overview on how metrological techniques can be applied to historical satellite data sets. In particular we discuss the implications of error correlation at different spatial and temporal scales and the forms of such correlation and consider how uncertainty is propagated with partial correlation. We give a form of the Law of Propagation of Uncertainties that considers the propagation of uncertainties associated with common errors to give the covariance associated with Earth observations in different spectral channels.

Climate-induced variations of geyser periodicity in Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurwitz, S.; Kumar, A.; Taylor, R.; Heasler, H.

2008-01-01

The geysers of Yellowstone National Park, United States, attract millions of visitors each year, and their eruption dynamics have been the subject of extensive research for more than a century. Although many of the fundamental aspects associated with the dynamics of geyser eruptions have been elucidated, the relationship between external forcing (Earth tides, barometric pressure, and precipitation) and geyser eruption intervals (GEIs) remains a matter of ongoing debate. We present new instrumental GEI data and demonstrate, through detailed time-series analysis, that geysers respond to both long-term precipitation trends and to the seasonal hydrologic cycle. Responsiveness to long-term trends is reflected by a negative correlation between the annual averages of GEIs and stream flow in the Madison River. This response is probably associated with long-term pressure changes in the underlying hydrothermal reservoir. We relate seasonal GEI lengthening to snowmelt recharge. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak

2018-02-01

Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

Long-term trends and a sustainability transition

PubMed Central

Kates, Robert W.; Parris, Thomas M.

2003-01-01

How do long-term global trends affect a transition to sustainability? We emphasize the “multitrend” nature of 10 classes of trends, which makes them complex, contradictory, and often poorly understood. Each class includes trends that make a sustainability transition more feasible as well as trends that make it more difficult. Taken in their entirety, they serve as a checklist for the consideration of global trends that impact place-based sustainability studies. PMID:12829798

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stets, Edward G.; Kelly, Valerie J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2014-01-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate + sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen–Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate + sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state.

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification.

PubMed

Stets, E G; Kelly, V J; Crawford, C G

2014-08-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate+sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen-Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate+sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A power analysis for multivariate tests of temporal trend in species composition.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Dinger, Eric C; Sarr, Daniel

2011-10-01

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Laparoscopic major hepatectomies: current trends and indications. A comparison with the open technique.

PubMed

Ratti, Francesca; Cipriani, Federica; Ariotti, Riccardo; Giannone, Fabio; Paganelli, Michele; Aldrighetti, Luca

2015-06-01

Diffusion of laparoscopic major hepatectomies is experiencing a steady increasing trend, although slower compared to minor resections. The aim of this single-center study is to discuss current trends and indications in the application of minimally invasive techniques to major hepatic resections. Preoperative patients and disease characteristics of 49 laparoscopic major hepatectomies (LPS group), performed between 2005 and 2015, were compared with 585 open hepatectomies (Open group) to analyze differences in patients recruitment. Factors which were found to be differently distributed between groups were used as covariates in a propensity score-based case-matched analysis with a 1:3 ratio between LPS group and 147 patients from the Open group (constituting Open-mat group). Short-term outcome was analyzed in matched groups. ASA score, previous abdominal surgery, previous interventional procedures, indication, lesion size and associated procedures were significantly different between the LPS and the Open group. Short-term outcome analysis revealed that blood loss (200 vs 350 mL, p = 0.044) and time for functional recovery (3 vs 4 days, p = 0.05) were reduced in the LPS compared to the Open-mat group, in spite of longer length of surgery (260 vs 170 min, p = 0.041) and comparable oncological adequacy. Even though data on technical feasibility of laparoscopic major resections and their benefits in terms of blood loss and functional recovery support the diffusion of minimally invasive approach, the limit of the technique is still represented by the reduced pool of suitable candidates.

Progress in the reduction of carbon monoxide levels in major urban areas in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Sul, Kyung-Hwa; Szulejko, Jan E; Chambers, Scott D; Feng, Xinbin; Lee, Min-Hee

2015-12-01

Long-term trends in observed carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations were analyzed in seven major South Korean cities from 1989 to 2013. Temporal trends were evident on seasonal and annual timescales, as were spatial gradients between the cities. As CO levels in the most polluted cities decreased significantly until the early 2000s, the data were arbitrarily divided into two time periods (I: 1989-2000 and II: 2001-2013) for analysis. The mean CO concentration of period II was about 50% lower than that of period I. Long-term trends of annual mean CO concentrations, examined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method, confirm a consistent reduction in CO levels from 1989 to 2000 (period I). The abrupt reduction in CO levels was attributed to a combination of technological improvements and government administrative/regulatory initiatives (e.g., emission mitigation strategies and a gradual shift in the fuel/energy consumption mix away from coal and oil to natural gas and nuclear power). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent trends in water quality in an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland: elucidating the roles of hydrology and land use.

PubMed

Dunn, S M; Sample, J; Potts, J; Abel, C; Cook, Y; Taylor, C; Vinten, A J A

2014-07-01

Across the EU, programmes of measures have been introduced as part of river basin management planning as a means of tackling problems of diffuse pollution from agriculture. Evidence is required to demonstrate the effectiveness of these measures and with this overarching objective, monitoring of an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland was initiated in 2007. As a precursor to evaluating the effect of new management measures it is essential to understand how other factors, including hydrology and land use changes, could have influenced water quality. This study undertook an analysis of the trends in concentrations and loads of nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), suspended solids (SS) and turbidity measured at six points in the catchment over a six year period. The results identified both differing trends between determinands and differing trends occurring over varying spatial scales. The only direct relationships between land use and water quality that could be identified based on annual data was a positive link between arable cropping and nitrate concentrations. At the sub-catchment scale some temporal changes in land use and management explained short-term trends in nitrate but not in SRP. Lags in the system were identified due to soil adsorption, in-stream/loch processing and groundwater transport making the identification of cause and effect problematic. The results have implications for the demonstration of effectiveness of measures over the shorter term and the timescales of recovery from diffuse pollution. Longer term monitoring at small scales will be important in this regard.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, R. E.; Nishihama, Masahiro

2009-01-01

Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

Effect of environmental factors on Internet searches related to sinusitis.

PubMed

Willson, Thomas J; Lospinoso, Joshua; Weitzel, Erik K; McMains, Kevin C

2015-11-01

Sinusitis significantly affects the population of the United States, exacting direct cost and lost productivity. Patients are likely to search the Internet for information related to their health before seeking care by a healthcare professional. Utilizing data generated from these searches may serve as an epidemiologic surrogate. A retrospective time series analysis was performed. Google search trend data from the Dallas-Fort Worth metro region for the years 2012 and 2013 were collected from www.google.com/trends for terms related to sinusitis based on literature outlining the most important symptoms for diagnosis. Additional terms were selected based on common English language terms used to describe the disease. Twelve months of data from the same time period and location for common pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulates), pollen and mold counts, and influenza-like illness were also collected. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson correlation coefficients, and potential search activity predictors were assessed using autoregressive integrated moving average. Pearson correlation was strongest between the terms congestion and influenza-like illness (r=0.615), and sinus and influenza-like illness (r=0.534) and nitrogen dioxide (r=0.487). Autoregressive integrated moving average analysis revealed ozone, influenza-like illness, and nitrogen dioxide levels to be potential predictors for sinus pressure searches, with estimates of 0.118, 0.349, and 0.438, respectively. Nitrogen dioxide was also a potential predictor for the terms congestion and sinus, with estimates of 0.191 and 0.272, respectively. Google search activity for related terms follow the pattern of seasonal influenza-like illness and nitrogen dioxide. These data highlight the epidemiologic potential of this novel surveillance method. NA. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Theme trends and knowledge structure on choroidal neovascularization: a quantitative and co-word analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Fangkun; Shi, Bei; Liu, Ruixin; Zhou, Wenkai; Shi, Dong; Zhang, Jinsong

2018-04-03

The distribution pattern and knowledge structure of choroidal neovascularization (CNV) was surveyed based on literatures in PubMed. Published scientific papers about CNV were retrieved from Jan 1st, 2012 to May 31st, 2017. Extracted MeSH terms were analyzed quantitatively by using Bibliographic Item Co-Occurrence Matrix Builder (BICOMB) and high-frequency MeSH terms were identified. Hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted by SPSS 19.0 according to the MeSH term-source article matrix. High-frequency MeSH terms co-occurrence matrix was constructed to support strategic diagram and social network analysis (SNA). According to the searching strategy, all together 2366 papers were included, and the number of annual papers changed slightly from Jan 1st, 2012 to May 31st, 2017. Among all the extracted MeSH terms, 44 high-frequency MeSH terms were identified and hotspots were clustered into 6 categories. In the strategic diagram, clinical drug therapy, pathology and diagnosis related researches of CNV were well developed. In contrast, the metabolism, etiology, complications, prevention and control of CNV in animal models, and genetics related researches of CNV were relatively immature, which offers potential research space for future study. As for the SNA result, the position status of each component was described by the centrality values. The studies on CNV are relatively divergent and the 6 research categories concluded from this study could reflect the publication trends on CNV to some extent. By providing a quantitative bibliometric research across a 5-year span, it could help to depict an overall command of the latest topics and provide some hints for researchers when launching new projects.

Long-term analysis and appropriate metrics of climate change in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar

This study addresses three important issues related to long-term climate change study in Mongolia. Mongolia is one of the biggest land-locked countries in Asia and 75--80 percent of the land is rangeland, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate will affect many sectors critical to the country's economic, social, and ecological welfare. Therefore, it is regionally and globally important to evaluate climate change in Mongolia. Chapter 1 discusses the qualitative and descriptive study on exposure characteristics of the 17 Mongolian meteorological stations, which are part of the Global Climate Observing Network (GCON). The global average temperature anomalies are based in part on the GCON stations' meteorological data. To document the possible exposures surrounding the weather stations, the Mongolian meteorological stations were surveyed during July--August 2005. From the total 17 stations, 47 percent were determined strongly influenced by urban character landscape, 41 percent received some anthropogenic influences, and 12 percent had very little to no anthropogenic influences. Even though the Mongolian meteorological stations' exposure characteristics are better than the European and North American stations' the strict adherence in following WMO guidelines is important and urgently needed. Chapter 2 evaluates the long-term (1961--2005) trends in seasonal and annual surface mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, this study compares the long-term mean temperature trends with decadal (1998--2007) trends. This chapter also discusses the extreme climate indices on spatial and temporal scales. According to the results, the long-term linear temperature trends show a clear increasing trend whereas the decadal trends show the decreasing trend mostly in winter and spring. The analysis of extreme indices (1961--2001) indicate that most of the stations frost and icing days are decreased and summer days, tropical nights, monthly maximum value of daily minimum, maximum temperatures and growing season length are increased. Precipitation indices varied substantially and there were no unified temporal and spatial pattern. In addition to that, I am suggesting effective temperature as an appropriate metric to evaluate surface heat change because it counts not only air temperature but also surface humidity. Chapter 3 discusses a case study of grazing intensity on surface energy budgets. To evaluate the land atmospheric interactions over the grassland area depending on the different grazing intensity I conducted the case study over the Shortgrass Steppe Long-Term Ecological Research site on Northern Great Plains of US to imply the findings in semiarid shortgrass steppe of Mongolia. The study site has much of similarities with Mongolian shortgrass steppe and has more frequent, high quality data. This study evaluates the impact of grazing on microclimate and energy budgets in a dry (163 mm) and two near-normal (262 and 260 mm) precipitation years based on continuously measured 20 minute interval data. This study helps to describe surface energy partitioning in semi-arid grasslands that has long history of grazing. The main finding of the study is grazing has a potential impact on the energy partitioning under conditions of higher water availability, but not during dry conditions.

Seasonal trends in sleep-disordered breathing: evidence from Internet search engine query data.

PubMed

Ingram, David G; Matthews, Camilla K; Plante, David T

2015-03-01

The primary aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that there is a seasonal component to snoring and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) through the use of Google search engine query data. Internet search engine query data were retrieved from Google Trends from January 2006 to December 2012. Monthly normalized search volume was obtained over that 7-year period in the USA and Australia for the following search terms: "snoring" and "sleep apnea". Seasonal effects were investigated by fitting cosinor regression models. In addition, the search terms "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were evaluated to examine seasonal effects in pediatric populations. Statistically significant seasonal effects were found using cosinor analysis in both USA and Australia for "snoring" (p < 0.00001 for both countries). Similarly, seasonal patterns were observed for "sleep apnea" in the USA (p = 0.001); however, cosinor analysis was not significant for this search term in Australia (p = 0.13). Seasonal patterns for "snoring children" and "sleep apnea children" were observed in the USA (p = 0.002 and p < 0.00001, respectively), with insufficient search volume to examine these search terms in Australia. All searches peaked in the winter or early spring in both countries, with the magnitude of seasonal effect ranging from 5 to 50 %. Our findings indicate that there are significant seasonal trends for both snoring and sleep apnea internet search engine queries, with a peak in the winter and early spring. Further research is indicated to determine the mechanisms underlying these findings, whether they have clinical impact, and if they are associated with other comorbid medical conditions that have similar patterns of seasonal exacerbation.

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Long-term coffee consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2014-02-11

Considerable controversy exists on the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1 279 804 participants and 36 352 CVD cases. A nonlinear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity=0.09, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median, 0 cups per day), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.03) for the highest category (median, 5 cups per day) category, 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.90) for the second highest category (median, 3.5 cups per day), and 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.94) for the third highest category (median, 1.5 cups per day). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was nonlinearly associated with both coronary heart disease (P for heterogeneity=0.001, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001) and stroke (P for heterogeneity=0.07, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001; P for trend differences >0.05) risks. A nonlinear association between coffee consumption and CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups per day, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk.

Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001) and stroke risks (P for heterogeneity = 0.07, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity< 0.001) (P for trend differences > 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300

Present-Day Influence of English on Swedish as Found in Swedish Job Advertisements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Ben E.

1990-01-01

A brief analysis of job advertisements in Swedish newspapers notes the increasing trend toward the use of English rather than Swedish words for certain terms, attributing such use to the wish to show an international labor perspective. (five references) (CB)

A STUDY OF FRINGE BENEFITS.

DTIC Science & Technology

Fringe benefits as a term was coined by the War Labor Board during World War II to describe the various indirect benefits which industry had devised...trends for the future. The appendix contains an analysis of comparative costs of fringe benefits in industry and the military services. (Author)

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Seasonality in twin birth rates, Denmark, 1936-84.

PubMed

Bonnelykke, B; Søgaard, J; Nielsen, J

1987-12-01

A study was made of seasonality in twin birth rate in Denmark between 1977 and 1984. We studied all twin births (N = 45,550) in all deliveries (N = 3,679,932) during that period. Statistical analysis using a simple harmonic sinusoidal model provided no evidence for seasonality. However, sequential polynomial analysis disclosed a significant fit to a fifth order polynomial curve with peaks in twin birth rates in May-June and December, along with troughs in February and September. A falling trend in twinning rate broke off in Denmark around 1970, and from 1970 to 1984 an increasing trend was found. The results are discussed in terms of possible environmental influences on twinning.

Estimating terrestrial water storage changes in the Tarim River Basin using GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kefei; Li, Xia

2017-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a fundamental role in the arid Tarim River Basin, which is mainly fed by glacier and snow melt water. However, the significant scarcity of ground-based observations, especially in the high-altitude mountain areas, limits our understanding of TWS changes in this region. In this study, TWS variations in the Tarim River Basin were estimated using monthly GRACE Level 2 Release 5 (RL05) products from 2002 to August 2015. The GRACE results were validated against outputs of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) including spatial and temporal correlation analysis. The correlation between the regional TWS time-series of GRACE and GLDAS is 0.7777. It was found that GRACE TWS shows a slightly decreasing trend of -1.4069 ± 0.5060 mm yr-1 in the entire Tarim River Basin during the study period and a significant spatial difference over the study area. An apparent decreasing trend in Tien Shan and the Taklamakan Desert, and a significant increasing trend in the Kunlun Mountains and eastern Pamirs Plateau were also detected. Moreover, seasonal analysis of regional TWS time-series, precipitation and the 0 °C isotherm height in summer showed that detrended TWS variations were consistent with precipitation while long-term trends of TWS were contrary to that of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. It implied that the interannual TWS variations were dominated by precipitation and the long-term trend of TWS changes was affected by changes of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. This information could enrich our knowledge about water storage changes, including glacier mass balance and groundwater, and its response to climate change in this vast but sparse in-situ measurements area.

Dynamic factor analysis of long-term growth trends of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Lin, Hsing-Juh

2010-01-01

We examined environmental factors which are most responsible for the 8-year temporal dynamics of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was applied to identify common trends in a multivariate time series and the relationships between this series and interacting environmental variables. The results of dynamic factor models (DFMs) showed that the leaf growth rate of the seagrass was mainly influenced by salinity (Sal), tidal range (TR), turbidity ( K), and a common trend representing an unexplained variability in the observed time series. Sal was the primary variable that explained the temporal dynamics of the leaf growth rate compared to TR and K. K and TR had larger influences on the leaf growth rate in low- than in high-elevation beds. In addition to K, TR, and Sal, UV-B radiation (UV-B), sediment depth (SD), and a common trend accounted for long-term temporal variations of the above-ground biomass. Thus, K, TR, Sal, UV-B, and SD are the predominant environmental variables that described temporal growth variations of the intertidal seagrass T. hemprichii in southern Taiwan. In addition to environmental variables, human activities may be contributing to negative impacts on the seagrass beds; this human interference may have been responsible for the unexplained common trend in the DFMs. Due to successfully applying the DFA to analyze complicated ecological and environmental data in this study, important environmental variables and impacts of human activities along the coast should be taken into account when managing a coastal environment for the conservation of intertidal seagrass beds.

Comparative study on long-term visibility trend and its affecting factors on both sides of the Taiwan Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Junjun; Xing, Zhenyu; Zhuang, Bingliang; Du, Ke

2014-06-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization has lead to increasing particulate matter pollution in the Cross Taiwan Strait Region, which has significant impacts on atmospheric visibility degradation. Long-term visibility trends in five typical cities over the cross-strait region (i.e., Xiamen and Fuzhou in the Western Taiwan Strait (WTS) region and Taipei, Taichung and Tainan in Taiwan) and its correlation with air quality and meteorological conditions were investigated using visibility and meteorological data during 1973-2011 and air pollution data during 2009-2011. For the entire period, the overall average visibilities in the WTS region were better than those in Taiwan, with an average of 16.8, 16.6, 8.5, 10.3 and 9.0 km in Fuzhou, Xiamen, Taipei, Taichung and Tainan, respectively. Decline trends with decreasing rates of - 0.5-0.1 km/yr existed in all cities except Taipei, which had an improvement in visibility after 1992. All seasons had decreasing trends during the 39-year period except in Taipei. The WTS region had the worse change trend compared with Taiwan. No statistically significant weekend effect in visibility is found over the region. Visibilities were better in summer and autumn, while worse in winter and spring. Correlation analysis revealed that significant negative correlations existed between visibility and NO2 and airborne particles (i.e., PM10 and PM2.5); PM2.5 played an important role in visibility degradation. High temperature and low pressure is beneficial for better visibility. Principal component analysis further confirmed the impacts of high concentrations of air pollutants, stable synoptic systems and humid air with high relative humidity on visibility impairment. In addition, case studies highlighted characteristics and potential causes of typical regional low visibility episodes over the region.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a fixed magnitude are presented. Depending on the indicator selected, the sample variance and trend magnitude very different detection time estimates are obtained and in most cases not within the time required for anticipatory adaptation in the water resources sector. Additionally, the minimum changes in low flow indicators required to be detectable are large and changes are unlikely to be statistically detectable for many years. This means that water management and planning for anticipated future climatic changes will be required to take place without these changes being formally statistically detectable.Waiting for these trends to become formally detectable with the traditional statistical methods might not be an option for water resources management. Within the monitoring network, a considerable difference is apparent between stations in terms of detection times and changes required for detection. The existence of flow monitoring stations showing short detection times for specific indicators confirms the potential for identifying stations that may be first responders to climate induced changes. Identifying sentinel stations can increase the ability to more effectively optimise the deployment of resources for monitoring the influences of climatic change in a hydrometric reference network.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

Long-term care for people with developmental disabilities: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Palley, H A; Van Hollen, V

2000-08-01

This article explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. The article also reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area. The authors conclude that future policies with respect to meeting long-term care needs for people with developmental disabilities must be addressed flexibly on an individual basis, related to individual needs, and must provide a continuum of care services.

Long-term phenotypic evolution of bacteria.

PubMed

Plata, Germán; Henry, Christopher S; Vitkup, Dennis

2015-01-15

For many decades comparative analyses of protein sequences and structures have been used to investigate fundamental principles of molecular evolution. In contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term evolution of species' phenotypic and genetic properties. This represents an important gap in our understanding of evolution, as exactly these proprieties play key roles in natural selection and adaptation to diverse environments. Here we perform a comparative analysis of bacterial growth and gene deletion phenotypes using hundreds of genome-scale metabolic models. Overall, bacterial phenotypic evolution can be described by a two-stage process with a rapid initial phenotypic diversification followed by a slow long-term exponential divergence. The observed average divergence trend, with approximately similar fractions of phenotypic properties changing per unit time, continues for billions of years. We experimentally confirm the predicted divergence trend using the phenotypic profiles of 40 diverse bacterial species across more than 60 growth conditions. Our analysis suggests that, at long evolutionary distances, gene essentiality is significantly more conserved than the ability to utilize different nutrients, while synthetic lethality is significantly less conserved. We also find that although a rapid phenotypic evolution is sometimes observed within the same species, a transition from high to low phenotypic similarity occurs primarily at the genus level.

Hardwood stumpage price trends in New England

Treesearch

D.F. Dennis; P.E. Sendak

1991-01-01

Stumpage price trends in New Hampshire and Vermont varied considerably among species and products. Real stumpage price trends, expressed in 1988 dollars using the Producer Price Index to remove the effect of inflation, are reported for selected species and products. Long-term (1964-1989) trends in average annual prices are reported for New Hampshire and short-term (...

Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901-2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, D. S.; Sridhar, Latha; Badwaik, M. R.; Rajeevan, M.

2015-08-01

In this study, analysis of the long term climatology, variability and trends in the daily rainfall events of ≥5 mm [or daily rainfall (DR) events] during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) over four regions of India; south central India (SCI), north central India (NCI), northeast India (NEI) and west coast (WC) have been presented. For this purpose, a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set covering 110 years (1901-2010) over the Indian main land has been used. The association of monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) with the DR events of various intensities has also been examined. Major portion of the rainfall over these regions during the season was received in the form of medium rainfall (≥5-100 mm) or moderate rainfall (MR) events. The mean seasonal cycle of the daily frequency of heavy rainfall (HR) (≥100-150 mm) or HR events and very heavy rainfall (VHR) (≥150 mm) or VHR events over each of the four regions showed peak at different parts of the season. The peak in the mean daily HR and VHR events occurred during middle of July to middle of August over SCI, during late part of June to early part of July over NCI, during middle of June to early July over NEI, and during late June to middle July over WC. Significant long term trends in the frequency and intensity of the DR events were observed in all the four geographical regions. Whereas the intensity of the DR events over all the four regions showed significant positive trends during the second half and the total period, the signs and magnitude of the long term trends in the frequency of the various categories of DR events during the total period and its two halves differed from the region to the region. The trend analysis revealed increased disaster potential for instant flooding over SCI and NCI during the recent years due to significant increasing trends in the frequency (areal coverage) and intensity of the HR and VHR events during the recent half of the data period. However, there is increased disaster potential over NEI and WC due to the increasing trends in the intensity of the rainfall events. There is strong association between the LPS days and the DR events in both the spatial and temporal scales. In all the four regions, the contributions to the total MR events by the LPS days were nearly equal. On the other hand, there was relatively large regional difference in the number of combined HR and VHR events associated with LPS days particularly that associated with monsoon depression (LPS stronger than monsoon depression) days. The possible reasons for the same have also been discussed. The increasing trend in the monsoon low (low pressure) days post 1970s is the primary reason for the observed significant increasing trends in the HR and VHR events over SCI and NCI and decreasing trend in HR events over NEI during the recent half (1956-2010). This is in spite of the decreasing trend in the MD days.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the southeastern part of Eurasia. The second part of the present study is related with another question. How do well climate model simulations match temperature observations throughout the atmosphere? Estimates of monthly-mean troposphere and stratospheric temperature trends over the past twenty years, from different hydrodynamical models (INM - model of Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RHMC - model of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia) are compared both with each other and with the observed trend analyses using aerological observations. We verified if the agreement is good between models and observations in term of cooling in the lower stratosphere and the tropospheric warming, which are strong indicators of climate change. Spatial inconsistencies between the observed and modelled vertical patterns of temperature change are identified. This work was partially supported by RFFI foundation N 03-05-64312, NATO grant EST.CLG.978911 and INTAS grant 03515296.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishop, L.; Hill, W.J.

A method is proposed to estimate the effect of long-term variations in total ozone on the error incurred in determining a trend in total ozone due to man-made effects. When this method is applied to data from Arosa, Switzerland over the years 1932--1980, a component of the standard error of the trend estimate equal to 0.6 percent per decade is obtained. If this estimate of long-term trend variability at Arosa is not too different from global long-term trend variability, then the threshold ( +- 2 standard errors) for detecting an ozone trend in the 1970's that is outside of whatmore » could be expected from natural variation alone and hence be man-made would range from 1.35% (Reinsel et al, 1981) to 1.8%. The latter value is obtained by combining the Reinsel et al result with the result here, assuming that the error variations that both studies measure are independent and additive. Estimates for long-term trend variation over other time periods are also derived. Simulations that measure the precision of the estimate of long-term variability are reported.« less

Weakened stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation driven by increased tropical mean upwelling.

PubMed

Kawatani, Yoshio; Hamilton, Kevin

2013-05-23

The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months. In the lowermost stratosphere, the vertical structure of this quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) is linked to the mean upwelling, which itself is a key factor in determining stratospheric composition. Evidence for changes in the QBO have until now been equivocal, raising questions as to the extent of stratospheric circulation changes in a global warming context. Here we report an analysis of near-equatorial radiosonde observations for 1953-2012, and reveal a long-term trend of weakening amplitude in the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere. The trend is particularly notable at the 70-hectopascal pressure level (an altitude of about 19 kilometres), where the QBO amplitudes dropped by roughly one-third over the period. This trend is also apparent in the global warming simulations of the four models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that realistically simulate the QBO. The weakening is most reasonably explained as resulting from a trend of increased mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. Almost all comprehensive climate models have projected an intensifying tropical upwelling in global warming scenarios, but attempts to estimate changes in the upwelling by using observational data have yielded ambiguous, inconclusive or contradictory results. Our discovery of a weakening trend in the lower-stratosphere QBO amplitude provides strong support for the existence of a long-term trend of enhanced upwelling near the tropical tropopause.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Anomaly Trends for Missions to Mars: Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Nelson W.; Hoffman, Alan R.

2008-01-01

The long term flight operations of the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey spacecraft give us an excellent chance to examine the operations of two long lived spacecraft in orbit around Mars during overlapping time periods. This study examined the anomalies for each mission maintained for NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. By examining the anomalies each mission encountered during their multiyear missions, trends were identified related to when anomalies occurred during each mission, the types of anomalies encountered, and corrective actions taken to mitigate the effects of the anomalies. As has been discovered in previous studies the numbers of anomalies directly correlate with mission activity and show a decreasing trend with elapsed mission time. Trend analysis also identified a heavy emphasis on software as the source or solution to anomalies for both missions.

Spaceborne estimated long-term trends (1980s - 2013) of albedo and melting season length over the Greenland ice sheet and linkages to climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The length of the melting season and surface albedo modulate the amount of meltwater produced over the Greenland ice sheet. The two quantities are intimately connected through a suite of non-linear processes: for example, early melting can reduce the surface albedo (through constructive grain size metamorphism), hence affecting the surface energy balance and further increasing melting. Over the past years, several studies have highlighted increased melting concurring, with a decrease of mean surface albedo over Greenland. However, few studies have examined the duration of the melting season, its implication for surface processes and linkages to climate drivers. Moreover, the majority (if not all) of the studies assessing albedo trends from spaceborne data over Greenland have focused on the last decade or so (2000 - 2013) because they use data collected over the same period by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Here, we evaluate and synthesize long-term trends in the length of the melting season (1979 - 2013) derived from spaceborne microwave observations together with surface albedo trends for the period 1982 - 2013 using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To our knowledge, this is the first time that trends in Greenland albedo and melt season length are discussed for the periods considered in this study. Our results point to a lengthening of the melting season as a consequence of earlier melt onset and later refreeze and to a decrease of mean albedo (1982 - 2013) over the Greenland ice sheet, with trends being spatially variable. To account for this spatial variability, the results of an analysis at regional scales over 12 different regions (defined by elevation and drainage systems) are also reported. The robustness of the results is evaluated by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained from both AVHRR and MODIS when overlapping data are available (2000 - 2013). Lastly, because large-scale circulation patterns and climate drivers can impact the amount of meltwater produced over Greenland (hence impacting albedo), we discuss the observed trends in the context of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) using a combination of regional climate model outputs and re-analysis data.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Seasonal Trends of Soiling on Photovoltaic Systems: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muller, Matthew T; Ruth, Daniel; Micheli, Leonardo

This work investigates the seasonal variability of PV soiling losses over a 12-month period for sixteen soiling stations deployed in the USA. A new parameter able to rank the sites according to the cumulative losses occurring over 3- and 6- month periods is presented. The relations between soiling losses and particulate matter are briefly discussed as well. Moving from long-term to shorter-term data increases the complexity of the analysis: monthly correlations are found to have lower accuracy than the longer term ones presented in the literature.

Assessment of fire effects based on Forest Inventory and Analysis data and a long-term fire mapping data set

Treesearch

John D. Shaw; Sara A. Goeking; James Menlove; Charles E. Werstak

2017-01-01

Integration of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data with Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) data can provide new information about fire effects on forests. This integration allowed broad-scale assessment of the cover types burned in large fires, the relationship between prefire stand conditions and fire severity, and postfire stand conditions. Of the 42...

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Detecting spatiotemporal changes of peak foliage coloration in deciduous and mixedforests across the Central and Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lingling; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Yu, Yunyue; Donnelly, Alison

2017-02-01

The timing of fall foliage coloration, especially peak coloration, is of great importance to the climate change research community as it has implications for carbon storage in forests. However, its long-term variation and response to climate change are poorly understood. To address this issue, we examined the long-term trends and breakpoints in satellite derived peak coloration onset from 1982 to 2014 using an innovative approach that combines Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). The peak coloration trend was then evaluated using both field foliage coloration observations and flux tower measurements. Finally, interannual changes in peak coloration onset were correlated with temperature and precipitation variation. Results showed that temporal trends in satellite-derived peak coloration onset were comparable with both field observations and flux tower measurements of gross primary productivity. Specifically, a breakpoint in long-term peak coloration onset was detected in 25% of pixels which were mainly distributed at latitudes north of 37°N. The breakpoint tended to occur between 1998 and 2004. Peak coloration onset was delayed before the breakpoint while it was transformed to an early trend after the breakpoint in nearly all pixels. The remaining 75% of pixels exhibited monotonic trends, 35% of which revealed a late trend and 40% an early trend. The results indicate that the onset of peak coloration experienced a late trend during the 1980s and 1990s in most deciduous and mixed forests. However, the trend was reversed during the most recent decade when the timing of peak coloration became earlier. The onset of peak coloration was significantly correlated with late summer and autumn temperature in 55.5% of pixels from 1982 to 2014. This pattern of temperature impacts was also verified using field observations and flux tower measurements. In the remaining 44.5% of pixels, 12.2% of pixels showed significantly positive correlation between the onset of peak coloration and cumulative precipitation during late summer and autumn period from 1982 to 2014. Our findings can improve understanding of the impact of changes in autumn phenology on carbon uptake in forests, which in turn facilitate more reliable measures of carbon dynamics in vegetation-climate interactions models.

Giving patients a starring role in their own care: a bibliometric analysis of the on-going literature debate.

PubMed

Menichetti, Julia; Libreri, Chiara; Lozza, Edoardo; Graffigna, Guendalina

2016-06-01

Patient-centred care has been advocated as a key component of high-quality patient care, yet its meanings and related actions have been difficult to ascertain. To map the use of different terms related to the process of giving patients a starring role in their own care and clarify the possible boundaries between terms that are often mixed. A literature search was conducted using different electronic databases. All records containing the search terms 'patient engagement', 'patient activation', 'patient empowerment', 'patient involvement', 'patient adherence', 'patient compliance' and 'patient participation' were collected. Identified literature was then analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). The number of yearly publications, most productive countries, cross-concepts articles and various scientific fields dealing with the multidisciplinary concepts were identified. Overall, 58 987 papers were analysed. Correspondence analysis revealed three temporal trends. The first period (2002-2004) focused on compliance and adherence, the second period (2006-2009) focused on the relationship between participation and involvement, and the third one (2010-2013) emphasized empowerment. Patient activation and patient engagement followed the temporal development trend connected to the 'immediate future'. The bibliometric trend suggests that the role of patient in the health-care system is changing. In the last years, the patient was viewed as a passive receptor of medical prescription. To date, the need to consider patients as active partners of health-care planning and delivery is growing. In particular, the term patient engagement appears promising, not only for its increasing growth of interest in the scholarly debate, but also because it offers a broader and better systemic conceptualization of the patients' role in the fruition of health care. To build a shared vocabulary of terms and concepts related to the active role of patients in the health-care process may be envisaged as the first operative step towards a concrete innovation of health-care organizations and systems. © 2014 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term trends in metals, PCBs, and pesticides in mussels from San Francisco Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.; Taberski, K.

1995-12-31

Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program in conjunction with the San Francisco Estuary Institute (in the last 2 years) have provided continues funding for the past 15 years to mussel watch studies in San Francisco Bay. Long-term trends have been identified that describe declines in many organics and metals during the last 15 years. There are also some metals and organics that show no specific trends. Themore » declines indicate that the banning or restriction of usage of some of these contaminants has resulted in substantial decreases of these substances in the environment.« less

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

2017-02-01

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The turning point in the number of traffic fatalities: two hypotheses about changes in underlying trends.

PubMed

Brüde, Ulf; Elvik, Rune

2015-01-01

The number of traffic fatalities reached a peak in many highly motorised countries around 1970. Some previous studies have suggested that the turning point in the number of traffic fatalities was inevitable and did not reflect a change in the underlying trends influencing the number of traffic fatalities. Other studies suggest that trends in traffic growth and fatality rate changed from before to after the turning point. This paper proposes two hypotheses about the turning point in the number of traffic fatalities. One hypothesis is that the long-term trends in traffic growth and fatality rate were the same before and after the turning point. The other hypothesis is that the long-term trends in traffic growth and fatality rate were different before and after the turning point was reached, in particular that the annual percentage decline in fatality rate became greater after the turning point than before. Such a change would suggest that road safety policy became more effective. Analysis of data for six countries (Denmark, Great Britain, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United States) lends stronger support to the latter hypothesis than to the former. The lesson for policy makers, in particular in countries where the number of traffic fatalities is still growing, is that they should not expect a turning point to be reached without policy interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

2017-07-01

A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2011-12-01

The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken place in and around existing urban centers with an overall increase in the percentage of forested land. Individual analysis of well sites in areas with documented land-use change from agriculture and forested land cover to urban land use suggests a positive correlation with increasing water levels. Recently, beaver populations been begun to rise that has led to local increases in wetland areas. These regions also show a high positive correlation to the magnitude of water table rise. Local factors such as land-use change and beaver activity appear to overprint and mask the impact of consistent increases in annual precipitation. Rising water tables have major implications for not only water management but also the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism industries as they all depend on the quantity and quality of water resources of the region.

Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, R.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

2014-11-01

Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth's gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass over regional level with accuracies in cm in terms of Water Equivalent Height (WEH). The WEH reflects the changes in the integrated vertically store water including snow cover, surface water, ground water and soil moisture at regional scale. GRACE data are also sensitive towards interior strain variation, surface uplift and surface subsidence cover over a large area. GRACE data was extracted over the three major Indian River basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, in the Himalayas which are perennial source of fresh water throughout the year in Northern Indian Plain. Time series analysis of the GRACE data was carried out from 2003-2012 over the study area. Trends and amplitudes of the regional mass anomalies in the region were estimated using level 3 GRACE data product with a spatial resolution at 10 by 10 grid provided by Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas at Austin. Indus basin has shown a subtle decreasing trend from 2003-2012 however it was observed to be statistically insignificant at 95 % confidence level. Ganga and Brahmaputra basins have shown a clear decreasing trend in WEH which was also observed to be statistically significant. The trend analysis over Ganga and Brahamputra basins have shown an average annual change of -1.28 cm and -1.06 cm in terms of WEH whereas Indus basin has shown a slight annual change of -0.07 cm. This analysis will be helpful to understand the loss of mass in terms of WEH over Indian Himalayas and will be crucial for hydrological and climate applications at regional scale.

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial pattern, viz. an eastward increase in trend magnitudes in the north-south direction. We further identify special cases of statistically significant seasonal trends for the series that otherwise do not exhibit apparent long-term dynamics, i.e. show an insignificant overall trend. A case in point is the NH3 observational record at Mondy station (Russia), for which the spring-summer negative trends are comparable to the winter positive trends, and both significant. Finally, we discuss and compare these first results with an evaluation of changes in acid deposition over region from 2000 provided by WMO PC-SAG in its global wet deposition assessment (Vet et al., 2014). References: Vet, R., Artz, R. S., Carou, S., Shaw, M., Ro, C. U., Aas, W., Baker, A., Bowersox, V. C., Dentener, F., Galy Lacaux, C., Hou, A., Pienaar, J. J., Gillett, R., Forti, M. C., Gromov, S., Hara, H., Khodzher, T., Mahowald, N. M., Nickovic, S., Rao, P. S. P., and Reid, N. W.: A global assessment of precipitation chemistry and deposition of sulfur, nitrogen, sea salt, base cations, organic acids, acidity and pH, and phosphorus. Atmos. Environ., 93, 3-100, 2014.

Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Ay, Murat

2014-05-01

Low, medium and high values of a parameter are very important issues in climatological, meteorological and hydrological events. Moreover these values are used to decide various design parameters based on scientific aspects and real applications everywhere in the world. With this concept, a new trend method recently proposed by Şen was used for water parameters, pH, T, EC, Na+, K+, CO3-2, HCO3-, Cl-, SO4-2, B+3 and Q recorded at five different stations (station numbers and locations: 1535-Sogutluhan (Sivas), 1501-Yamula (Kayseri), 1546-Tuzkoy (Kayseri), 1503-Yahsihan (Kirsehir), and 1533-Inozu (Samsun)) selected from the Kizilirmak River in Turkey. Low, medium and high values of the parameters were graphically evaluated with this method. For comparison purposes, the Mann-Kendall trend test was also applied to the same data. Differences of the two trend tests were also emphasised. It was found that the Şen trend test compared with the MK trend test had several advantages. The results also revealed that the Şen trend test could be successfully used for trend analysis of water parameters especially in terms of evaluation of low, medium and high values of data.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics in Hawaii, 1913-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. In Hawaii, surface-water resources are developed for both offstream uses (for example, drinking water, agriculture, and industrial uses) and instream uses (for example, maintenance of habitat and ecosystems, recreational activities, aesthetic values, maintenance of water quality, conveyance of irrigation and domestic water supplies, and protection of traditional and customary Hawaiian rights). Possible long-term trends in streamflow characteristics have important implications for water users, water suppliers, resource managers, and citizens in the State. Proper management of Hawaii's streams requires an understanding of long-term trends in streamflow characteristics and their potential implications. Effects of long-term downward trends in low flows in streams include potential loss of habitat for native stream fauna and reduced water availability for offstream and instream water uses. Effects of long-term upward trends in high flows in streams include construction of bridges and water-conveyance structures that are potentially unsafe if they are not designed with proper consideration of trends in high flows.

Comparison of GPS tropospheric delays derived from two consecutive EPN reprocessing campaigns from the point of view of climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this research was to acquire information about consistency of ZTD (zenith total delay) linear trends and seasonal components between two consecutive GPS reprocessing campaigns. The analysis concerned two sets of the ZTD time series which were estimated during EUREF (Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe) EPN (Permanent Network) reprocessing campaigns according to 2008 and 2015 MUT AC (Military University of Technology Analysis Centre) scenarios. Firstly, Lomb-Scargle periodograms were generated for 57 EPN stations to obtain a characterisation of oscillations occurring in the ZTD time series. Then, the values of seasonal components and linear trends were estimated using the LSE (least squares estimation) approach. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also carried out to verify the presence of linear long-term ZTD changes. Finally, differences in seasonal signals and linear trends between these two data sets were investigated. All these analyses were conducted for the ZTD time series of two lengths: a shortened 16-year series and a full 18-year one. In the case of spectral analysis, amplitudes of the annual and semi-annual periods were almost exactly the same for both reprocessing campaigns. Exceptions were found for only a few stations and they did not exceed 1 mm. The estimated trends were also similar. However, for the reprocessing performed in 2008, the trends values were usually higher. In general, shortening of the analysed time period by 2 years resulted in a decrease of the linear trends values of about 0.07 mm yr-1. This was confirmed by analyses based on two data sets.

Different trends in extreme and median surface aerosol extinction coefficients over China inferred from quality-controlled visibility data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Li, Chengcai; Zhao, Chunsheng

2018-03-01

Although the temporal changes in aerosol properties have been widely investigated, the majority of studies has focused on average conditions without much emphasis on the extremes. However, the latter can be more important in terms of human health and climate change. This study uses a previously validated, quality-controlled visibility dataset to investigate the long-term trends (expressed in terms of relative changes) in extreme surface aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) over China and compares them with the median trends. Two methods are used to independently evaluate the trends, which arrive at consistent results. The signs of extreme and median trends are generally coherent, whereas their magnitudes show distinct spatial and temporal differences. In the 1980s, an overall positive trend is found throughout China with the extreme trend exceeding the mean trend, except for northwest China and the North China Plain. In the 1990s, AEC over northeast and northwest China started to decline while the rest of the country still exhibited an increase. The extreme trends continued to dominate in the south while they yielded to the mean trend in the north. After the year 2000, the extreme trend became weaker than the mean trend overall in terms of both the magnitude and significance level. The annual trend can be primarily attributed to winter and fall trends. The results suggest that the decadal changes in pollution in China may be governed by different mechanisms. Synoptic conditions that often result in extreme air quality changes might have dominated in the 1980s, whereas emission increase might have been the main factor for the 2000s.

The long-term changes in total ozone, as derived from Dobson measurements at Arosa (1948-2001)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyscin, J. W.

2003-04-01

The longest possible total ozone time series (Arosa, Switzerland) is examined for a detection of trends. Two-step procedure is proposed to estimate the long-term (decadal) variations in the ozone time series. The first step consists of a standard least-squares multiple regression applied to the total ozone monthly means to parameterize "natural" (related to the oscillations in the atmospheric dynamics) variations in the analyzed time series. The standard proxies for the dynamical ozone variations are used including; the 11-year solar activity cycle, and indices of QBO, ENSO and NAO. We use the detrended time series of temperature at 100 hPa and 500 hPa over Arosa to parameterize short-term variations (with time periods<1 year) in total ozone related to local changes in the meteorological conditions over the station. The second step consists of a smooth-curve fitting to the total ozone residuals (original minus modeled "natural" time series), the time derivation applied to this curve to obtain local trends, and bootstrapping of the residual time series to estimate the standard error of local trends. Locally weighted regression and the wavelet analysis methodology are used to extract the smooth component out of the residual time series. The time integral over the local trend values provides the cumulative long-term change since the data beginning. Examining the pattern of the cumulative change we see the periods with total ozone loss (the end of 50s up to early 60s - probably the effect of the nuclear bomb tests), recovery (mid 60s up to beginning of 70s), apparent decrease (beginning of 70s lasting to mid 90s - probably the effect of the atmosphere contamination by anthropogenic substances containing chlorine), and with a kind of stabilization or recovery (starting in the mid of 90s - probably the effect of the Montreal protocol to eliminate substances reducing the ozone layer). We can also estimate that a full ozone recovery (return to the undisturbed total ozone level from the beginning of 70s) is expected around 2050. We propose to calculate both time series of local trends and the cumulative long-term change instead single trend value derived as a slope of straight line fit to the data.

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

Mathematics Skills and NAEP Results over a Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutledge, Zachary; Kloosterman, Peter; Kenney, Patricia Anne

2009-01-01

This article describes the performance of seventeen-year-olds on the Long-Term Trend program of the National Assessment of Educational Progress. The analysis focuses on a selection of questions from the assessment on which performance has changed significantly between 1982 and 2004. (Contains 2 tables and 5 figures.)

Tactics of Interventions: Student Mobility and Human Capital Building in Singapore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koh, Aaron

2012-01-01

Hitherto, research on transnational higher education student mobility tended to narrowly present hard statistics on student mobility, analysing these in terms of "trends" and the implication this has on policy and internationalizing strategies. What is missing from this "big picture" is a close-up analysis of the micropolitics…

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

2018-06-01

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Utilizing Integrated Prediction Error Filter Analysis (INPEFA) to divide base-level cycle of fan-deltas: A case study of the Triassic Baikouquan Formation in Mabei Slope Area, Mahu Depression, Junggar Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Rui; Zhu, Rui; Qu, Jianhua; Wu, Jun; You, Xincai; Sun, Yuqiu; Zhou, Yuanquan (Nancy)

2018-05-01

The Mahu Depression is an important hydrocarbon-bearing foreland sag located at the northwestern margin of the Junggar Basin, China. On the northern slope of the depression, large coarse-grained proximal fan-delta depositional systems developed in the Lower Triassic Baikouquan Formation (T1b). Some lithologic hydrocarbon reservoirs have been found in the conglomerates of the formation since recent years. However, the rapid vertical and horizontal lithology variations make it is difficult to divide the base-level cycle of the formation using the conventional methods. Spectral analysis technologies, such as Integrated Prediction Error Filter Analysis (INPEFA), provide another effective way to overcome this difficultly. In this paper, processed by INPEFA, conventional resistivity logs are utilized to study the base-level cycle of the fan-delta depositional systems. The negative trend of the INPEFA curve indicates the base-level fall semi-cycles, adversely, positive trend suggests the rise semi-cycles. Base-level cycles of Baikouquan Formation are divided in single and correlation wells. One long-term base-level rise semi-cycle, including three medium-term base-level cycles, is identified overall the Baikouquan Formation. The medium-term base-level cycles are characterized as rise semi-cycles mainly in the fan-delta plain, symmetric cycles in the fan-delta front and fall semi-cycles mainly in the pro-fan-delta. The short-term base-level rise semi-cycles most developed in the braided channels, sub-aqueous distributary channels and sheet sands. While, the interdistributary bays and pro-fan-delta mud indicate short-term base-level fall semi-cycles. Finally, based on the method of INPEFA, sequence filling model of Baikouquan formation is established.

Detecting seasonal and cyclical trends in agricultural runoff water quality-hypothesis tests and block bootstrap power analysis.

PubMed

Uddameri, Venkatesh; Singaraju, Sreeram; Hernandez, E Annette

2018-02-21

Seasonal and cyclic trends in nutrient concentrations at four agricultural drainage ditches were assessed using a dataset generated from a multivariate, multiscale, multiyear water quality monitoring effort in the agriculturally dominant Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) River Watershed in South Texas. An innovative bootstrap sampling-based power analysis procedure was developed to evaluate the ability of Mann-Whitney and Noether tests to discern trends and to guide future monitoring efforts. The Mann-Whitney U test was able to detect significant changes between summer and winter nutrient concentrations at sites with lower depths and unimpeded flows. Pollutant dilution, non-agricultural loadings, and in-channel flow structures (weirs) masked the effects of seasonality. The detection of cyclical trends using the Noether test was highest in the presence of vegetation mainly for total phosphorus and oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate) compared to dissolved phosphorus and reduced nitrogen (total Kjeldahl nitrogen-TKN). Prospective power analysis indicated that while increased monitoring can lead to higher statistical power, the effect size (i.e., the total number of trend sequences within a time-series) had a greater influence on the Noether test. Both Mann-Whitney and Noether tests provide complementary information on seasonal and cyclic behavior of pollutant concentrations and are affected by different processes. The results from these statistical tests when evaluated in the context of flow, vegetation, and in-channel hydraulic alterations can help guide future data collection and monitoring efforts. The study highlights the need for long-term monitoring of agricultural drainage ditches to properly discern seasonal and cyclical trends.

An enhanced trend surface analysis equation for regional-residual separation of gravity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obasi, A. I.; Onwuemesi, A. G.; Romanus, O. M.

2016-12-01

Trend surface analysis is a geological term for a mathematical technique which separates a given map set into a regional component and a local component. This work has extended the steps for the derivation of the constants in the trend surface analysis equation from the popularly known matrix and simultaneous form to a more simplified and easily achievable format. To achieve this, matrix inversion was applied to the existing equations and the outcome was tested for suitability using a large volume of gravity data set acquired from the Anambra Basin, south-eastern Nigeria. Tabulation of the field data set was done using the Microsoft Excel spread sheet, while gravity maps were generated from the data set using Oasis Montaj software. A comparison of the residual gravity map produced using the new equations with its software derived counterpart has shown that the former has a higher enhancing capacity than the latter. This equation has shown strong suitability for application in the separation of gravity data sets into their regional and residual components.

Dose-dependent protective effect of breast-feeding against breast cancer among ever-lactated women in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonju; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Park, Sue Kyung; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Noh, Dong-Young; Hong, Yun-Chul; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young

2007-04-01

Lactation might have a crucial role in an extraordinary increase in breast cancer incidence in Korea, as the proportion of mothers who practised breast-feeding fell dramatically. This hospital-based case-control analysis has been carried out since 1997 to evaluate whether lactation is associated with breast cancer risk in Korean women. Among the eligible study participants, a total of 753 histologically confirmed incident cases and an equal number of controls were included in the analysis. The risk was estimated using unconditional logistic regression models. Family history, older at menopause, more full-term pregnancies increased the risk of breast cancer. Breast cancer risk decreased according to the total months of breast-feeding (P for trend=0.03). Average duration of breast-feeding of 11-12 months reduced risk of breast cancer by 54% compared with the duration of 1-4 months (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.70). The decreasing risk trend according to average months of breast-feeding was also statistically significant (P for trend=0.02). Moreover, a reduced risk of breast cancer was apparent when analysis was restricted to the first breast-fed child (P for trend=0.006). This study confirms that lactation has an apparent dose-dependent protective effect against breast cancer in Korean women.

Revisiting AVHRR Tropospheric Aerosol Trends Using Principal Component Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.

2014-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite instruments provide a nearly 25 year continuous record of global aerosol properties over the ocean. It offers valuable insights into the long-term change in global aerosol loading. However, the AVHRR data record is heavily influenced by two volcanic eruptions, El Chichon on March 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on June 1991. The gradual decay of volcanic aerosols may last years after the eruption, which potentially masks the estimation of aerosol trends in the lower troposphere, especially those of anthropogenic origin. In this study, we show that a principal component analysis approach effectively captures the bulk of the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic aerosols into a single mode. The spatial pattern and time series of this mode provide a good match to the global distribution and decay of volcanic aerosols. We further reconstruct the data set by removing the volcanic aerosol component and reestimate the global and regional aerosol trends. Globally, the reconstructed data set reveals an increase of aerosol optical depth from 1985 to 1990 and decreasing trend from 1994 to 2006. Regionally, in the 1980s, positive trends are observed over the North Atlantic and North Arabian Sea, while negative tendencies are present off the West African coast and North Pacific. During the 1994 to 2006 period, the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic close to Europe, and North Africa exhibit negative trends, while the coastal regions of East and South Asia, the Sahel region, and South America show positive trends.

A comparative financial analysis of multi-institutional organizations by ownership type.

PubMed

Coyne, J S

1985-01-01

Concern about future directions in healthcare exists, with corporate consolidation seen as likely and necessary. To understand this transformation, the author examines the financial growth trends among the nation's leading corporate providers. Investor-owned (IO) and not-for-profit (NFP) firms are compared using audited data on four financial accounts (assets, debt, equity and income) and three financial ratios (liquidity, leverage, and profitability). The author analyzes financial trends from 1978 to 1982 and looks beyond the significant differences in the balance sheet and income statement accounts to a significant similarity in ratio trends between the NFP and the IO firms' financial conditions. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of future forms of corporate providers.

Temperature trends and Urban Heat Island intensity mapping of the Las Vegas valley area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Adam Leland

Modified urban climate regions that are warmer than rural areas at night are referred to as Urban Heat Islands or UHI. Islands of warmer air over a city can be 12 degrees Celsius greater than the surrounding cooler air. The exponential growth in Las Vegas for the last two decades provides an opportunity to detect gradual temperature changes influenced by an increasing presence of urban materials. This thesis compares ground based thermometric observations and satellite based remote sensing temperature observations to identify temperature trends and UHI areas caused by urban development. Analysis of temperature trends between 2000 and 2010 at ground weather stations has revealed a general cooling trend in the Las Vegas region. Results show that urban development accompanied by increased vegetation has a cooling effect in arid climates. Analysis of long term temperature trends at McCarran and Nellis weather stations show 2.4 K and 1.2 K rise in temperature over the last 60 years. The ground weather station temperature data is related to the land surface temperature images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper to estimate and evaluate urban heat island intensity for Las Vegas. Results show that spatial and temporal trends of temperature are related to the gradual change in urban landcover. UHI are mainly observed at the airport and in the industrial areas. This research provides useful insight into the temporal behavior of the Las Vegas area.

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2005-01-01

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

2017-12-01

With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the standard deviation (as determined from the slopes of the trend lines for individual CMIP5 members), means, medians (e.g. P50 values) and percent change, trends analysis on time series for each variable, and creation of global maps of trends (% change per year) and changes in capacity factors for both estimated solar and wind power production.

Diabetes research in Middle East countries; a scientometrics study from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Peykari, Niloofar; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Hasannia, Tahereh; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad

2015-03-01

Diabetes burden is a serious warning for urgent action plan across the world. Knowledge production in this context could provide evidences for more efficient interventions. Aimed to that, we quantify the trend of diabetes research outputs of Middle East countries focusing on the scientific publication numbers, citations, and international collaboration. This scientometrics study was performed based on the systematic analysis through three international databases; ISI, PubMed, and Scopus from 1990 to 2012. International collaboration of Middle East countries and citations was analyzed based on Scopus. Diabetes' publications in Iran specifically were assessed, and frequent used terms were mapped by VOSviewer software. Over 23-year period, the number of diabetes publications and related citations in Middle East countries had increasing trend. The number of articles on diabetes in ISI, PubMed, and Scopus were respectively; 13,994, 11,336, and 20,707. Turkey, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have devoted the five top competition positions. In addition, Israel, Turkey, and Iran were leading countries in citation analysis. The most collaborative country with Middle East countries was USA and within the region, the most collaborative country was Saudi Arabia. Iran in all databases stands on third position and produced 12.7% of diabetes publications within region. Regarding diabetes researches, the frequent used terms in Iranian articles were "effect," "woman," and "metabolic syndrome." Ascending trend of diabetes research outputs in Middle East countries is appreciated but encouraging to strategic planning for maintaining this trend, and more collaboration between researchers is needed to regional health promotion.

Algorithmic trends in computational fluid dynamics; The Institute for Computer Applications in Science and Engineering (ICASE)/LaRC Workshop, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, US, Sep. 15-17, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hussaini, M. Y. (Editor); Kumar, A. (Editor); Salas, M. D. (Editor)

1993-01-01

The purpose here is to assess the state of the art in the areas of numerical analysis that are particularly relevant to computational fluid dynamics (CFD), to identify promising new developments in various areas of numerical analysis that will impact CFD, and to establish a long-term perspective focusing on opportunities and needs. Overviews are given of discretization schemes, computational fluid dynamics, algorithmic trends in CFD for aerospace flow field calculations, simulation of compressible viscous flow, and massively parallel computation. Also discussed are accerelation methods, spectral and high-order methods, multi-resolution and subcell resolution schemes, and inherently multidimensional schemes.

Trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia: a qualitative software-based thematic analysis of journal abstracts.

PubMed

Caputo, Andrea

2015-01-01

Euthanasia has received increasing attention in both academic and public debates as one of the most controversial issues. However, the contribution of psychology-related themes to the topic has had little role on these ongoing debates. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to explore the main themes relating to euthanasia as provided by psychology-related research; (2) to analyze the temporal trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia over the last decades. A comprehensive search of academic literature was conducted on PsychINFO database. A qualitative software-based thematic analysis was carried out on 602 journal abstracts published from 1935 to 2014. This study highlighted four different thematic areas which characterized the scientific discourse on euthanasia: (1) moral values, in terms of religious, philosophical, and social implications concerning the individual's decision to die; (2) professional ethics, in terms of health and social workers' legal responsibility in death assistance; (3) end-of-life care, with regard to medical options provided to support individuals nearing death; and (4) patient's right to healthcare, in terms of access to palliative care and better quality of dying. Euthanasia discourse over the last decades seems to be overall characterized by two main dimensions: (1) the increasing trend of social legitimacy and acceptability of euthanasia over time, which moved from ethical to healthcare issues; and (2) the curvilinear temporal trend about the request/provision process in euthanasia, which moved from patient's decision for ending life (mainly characterizing the most past and recent research) to the role of health professionals (with a peak in the 1990s). The results suggest palliative care as a potential future research area which can provide healthcare providers with skills to 'connect' with patients, understand patients' hidden agendas, and grant a good quality of life and dying process.

Benzodiazepine and Z-drug prescribing in Ireland: analysis of national prescribing trends from 2005 to 2015.

PubMed

Cadogan, Cathal A; Ryan, Cristín; Cahir, Caitriona; Bradley, Colin P; Bennett, Kathleen

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to examine prescribing trends for benzodiazepines and Z-drugs to General Medical Services (GMS) patients in Ireland. A repeated cross-sectional analysis of the national pharmacy claims database was conducted for GMS patients aged ≥16 years from 2005 to 2015. Prescribing rates per 1000 eligible GMS population were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Negative binomial regression was used to determine longitudinal trends and compare prescribing rates across years, gender and age groups. Duration of supply and rates of concomitant benzodiazepine and Z-drug prescribing were determined. Age (16-44, 45-64, ≥65 years) and gender trends were investigated. Benzodiazepine prescribing rates decreased significantly from 225.92/1000 population (95% CI 224.94-226.89) in 2005 to 166.07/1000 population (95% CI 165.38-166.75) in 2015 (P < 0.0001). Z-drug prescribing rates increased significantly from 95.36/1000 population (95% CI 94.73-96.00) in 2005 to 109.11/1000 population (95% CI 108.56-109.67) in 2015 (P = 0.048). Approximately one-third of individuals dispensed either benzodiazepines or Z-drugs were receiving long-term prescriptions (>90 days). The proportion of those receiving >1 benzodiazepine and/or Z-drug concomitantly increased from 11.9% in 2005 to 15.3% in 2015. Benzodiazepine and Z-drug prescribing rates were highest for older women (≥65 years) throughout the study period. Benzodiazepine prescribing to the GMS population in Ireland decreased significantly from 2005 to 2015, and was coupled with significant increases in Z-drug prescribing. The study shows that benzodiazepine and Z-drug prescribing is common in this population, with high proportions of individuals receiving long-term prescriptions. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce potentially inappropriate long-term prescribing and use of these medications in Ireland. © 2018 The British Pharmacological Society.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Nonlinear stratospheric variability: multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis and singularity spectra

PubMed Central

Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

2016-01-01

Characterizing the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study, the different scaling laws in the long-term stratospheric variability are studied using multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The analysis is performed comparing four re-analysis products and different realizations of an idealized numerical model, isolating the role of topographic forcing and seasonal variability, as well as the absence of climate teleconnections and small-scale forcing. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) shows a transition of scaling exponents for time scales shorter than about 1 year, for which the variability is multifractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to a red spectrum, to longer time scales, for which the variability is monofractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to white noise. Southern Hemisphere (SH) variability also shows a transition at annual scales. The SH also shows a narrower dynamical range in multifractality than the NH, as seen in the generalized Hurst exponent and in the singularity spectra. The numerical integrations show that the models are able to reproduce the low-frequency variability but are not able to fully capture the shorter term variability of the stratosphere. PMID:27493560

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area.

PubMed

Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul

2018-04-19

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990-2016. Implications Statement The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time-series into: short-term, seasonal and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990-2016 at an urban site in the Greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for, by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the Greater Houston Area.

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

D. D. Davis; R. P. Long

2003-01-01

We examined long-term growth trends of white oak by comparing tree-ring chronologies developed from an old-growth stand, where the average tree age was 222 years, with a second-growth stand where average tree age was 78 years. Evaluation of basal area growth trends suggested that an anomalous decrease in basal area increment trend occurred in both stands during the...

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2006, Featuring Colorectal Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Ward, Elizabeth; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie; Zauber, Ann G.; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Schymura, Maria J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Seeff, Laura C.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Goede, S. Luuk; Ries, Lynn A. G.

2009-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information about cancer occurrence and trends in the United States (U.S.). This year’s report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 U.S. population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2006) trends and short-term fixed interval (1997–2006) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (i.e., lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for two of the 3 leading cancers in women (i.e., breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women showed smaller and smaller increases until 2003 when there was a change to a non-significant decline. Microsimulation modeling shows that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but could be further accelerated with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern. PMID:19998273

Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicol, Samuel; Roach, Jennifer K.; Griffith, Brad

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

Decreased term and postterm birthweight in the United States: impact of labor induction.

PubMed

Zhang, Xun; Joseph, K S; Kramer, Michael S

2010-08-01

We sought to assess recent trends in falling mean birthweight (BW) and gestational age (GA) among US non-Hispanic white singleton live births >or=37 weeks of gestation and the contribution of increased rates of induction to these trends. This was an ecological study based on US vital statistics from 1992 through 2003. From 1992 through 2003, mean BW fell by 37 g, mean GA by 3 days, and macrosomia rates by 25%. Rates of induction nearly doubled from 14% to 27%. Our ecological state-level analysis showed that the increased rate of induction was significantly associated with reduced mean BW (r = -0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.71 to -0.29), mean GA (r = -0.44; 95% CI, -0.65 to -0.17), and rate of macrosomia (r = -0.55; 95% CI, -0.74 to -0.32). Increasing use of induction is a likely cause of the observed recent declines in BW and GA. The impact of these trends on infant and long-term health warrants attention and investigation. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiband optical-IR variability of the blazar PKS 0537-441

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Pan; Wang, Li-Sha; Yang, Cheng; Yang, Hai-yan; Zhou, Li; Xu, Guang-Yang; Shan, Yu-Qiong; Liu, Jie; Luo, Yu-Hui; Zhang, Li

2018-06-01

We have reconsidered the simultaneous and homogeneous optical-IR light curves and the corresponding spectral indices curve of the blazar PKS 0537-441 from January 2011 to May 2015. All the curves show significant fluctuations on various timescales, and the flux variations seem to be more pronounced towards the IR bands. The relation between average fluxes and spectral indices reveals the existence of redder-when-brighter (RWB) and bluer-when-brighter (BWB) trends at different flux levels, along with a long-term achromatic trend and a mild RWB trend on short-term timescales. Cross-correlation analyses present an energy-dependent time delay that the lower-frequency variations follow higher-frequency ones by a few weeks and a hysteresis pattern between spectra and fluxes. Our analysis reveals some potential coherence between low-energy-peaked BL Lacs (LBLs) and FSRQs, and indicates that the observed flux variability and spectral changes could be due to the superposition of a dominant jet emission, an underlying thermal contribution from a more slowly varying disk and/or other geometric effects under the shock-in-jet scenario.

Characterization of Wind Patterns over Texas Using Self-Organizing Maps: Impact on Dallas-Fort Worth Long Term Ozone Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsakis, A.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.; Jeon, W.; Flynn, J. H., III

2017-12-01

From the years 2000 to 2014, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has seen a decrease in ozone exceedances due to decreased emissions of ozone precursors. In this study, a wind pattern analysis was done to gain a better understanding of the meteorological patterns that have historically contributed to ozone exceedances over the DFW area. Long-term trends in ozone and the seasonal distribution of ozone exceedances were analyzed using surface monitoring data. Using a clustering algorithm called self-organizing maps, characteristic regional wind patterns from 2000-2014 were determined. For each of the wind pattern clusters, the frequency over the last 15 years and average ozone from monitors across DFW was analyzed. Finally, model simulations were performed to determine if pollution transported out of Houston affected incoming background ozone into DFW.

A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets.

PubMed

Tittensor, Derek P; Walpole, Matt; Hill, Samantha L L; Boyce, Daniel G; Britten, Gregory L; Burgess, Neil D; Butchart, Stuart H M; Leadley, Paul W; Regan, Eugenie C; Alkemade, Rob; Baumung, Roswitha; Bellard, Céline; Bouwman, Lex; Bowles-Newark, Nadine J; Chenery, Anna M; Cheung, William W L; Christensen, Villy; Cooper, H David; Crowther, Annabel R; Dixon, Matthew J R; Galli, Alessandro; Gaveau, Valérie; Gregory, Richard D; Gutierrez, Nicolas L; Hirsch, Tim L; Höft, Robert; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Karmann, Marion; Krug, Cornelia B; Leverington, Fiona J; Loh, Jonathan; Lojenga, Rik Kutsch; Malsch, Kelly; Marques, Alexandra; Morgan, David H W; Mumby, Peter J; Newbold, Tim; Noonan-Mooney, Kieran; Pagad, Shyama N; Parks, Bradley C; Pereira, Henrique M; Robertson, Tim; Rondinini, Carlo; Santini, Luca; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Schindler, Stefan; Sumaila, U Rashid; Teh, Louise S L; van Kolck, Jennifer; Visconti, Piero; Ye, Yimin

2014-10-10

In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Time series smoother for effect detection.

PubMed

You, Cheng; Lin, Dennis K J; Young, S Stanley

2018-01-01

In environmental epidemiology, it is often encountered that multiple time series data with a long-term trend, including seasonality, cannot be fully adjusted by the observed covariates. The long-term trend is difficult to separate from abnormal short-term signals of interest. This paper addresses how to estimate the long-term trend in order to recover short-term signals. Our case study demonstrates that the current spline smoothing methods can result in significant positive and negative cross-correlations from the same dataset, depending on how the smoothing parameters are chosen. To circumvent this dilemma, three classes of time series smoothers are proposed to detrend time series data. These smoothers do not require fine tuning of parameters and can be applied to recover short-term signals. The properties of these smoothers are shown with both a case study using a factorial design and a simulation study using datasets generated from the original dataset. General guidelines are provided on how to discover short-term signals from time series with a long-term trend. The benefit of this research is that a problem is identified and characteristics of possible solutions are determined.

Time series smoother for effect detection

PubMed Central

Lin, Dennis K. J.; Young, S. Stanley

2018-01-01

In environmental epidemiology, it is often encountered that multiple time series data with a long-term trend, including seasonality, cannot be fully adjusted by the observed covariates. The long-term trend is difficult to separate from abnormal short-term signals of interest. This paper addresses how to estimate the long-term trend in order to recover short-term signals. Our case study demonstrates that the current spline smoothing methods can result in significant positive and negative cross-correlations from the same dataset, depending on how the smoothing parameters are chosen. To circumvent this dilemma, three classes of time series smoothers are proposed to detrend time series data. These smoothers do not require fine tuning of parameters and can be applied to recover short-term signals. The properties of these smoothers are shown with both a case study using a factorial design and a simulation study using datasets generated from the original dataset. General guidelines are provided on how to discover short-term signals from time series with a long-term trend. The benefit of this research is that a problem is identified and characteristics of possible solutions are determined. PMID:29684033

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Pau, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa; Ingersoll, George P.

2011-01-01

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.

A perspective on nonstationarity and water management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, R.M.

2011-01-01

This essay offers some perspectives on climate-related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long-term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long-term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well-trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

PubMed

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Generic trending and analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keehan, Lori; Reese, Jay

1994-01-01

The Generic Trending and Analysis System (GTAS) is a generic spacecraft performance monitoring tool developed by NASA Code 511 and Loral Aerosys. It is designed to facilitate quick anomaly resolution and trend analysis. Traditionally, the job of off-line analysis has been performed using hardware and software systems developed for real-time spacecraft contacts; then, the systems were supplemented with a collection of tools developed by Flight Operations Team (FOT) members. Since the number of upcoming missions is increasing, NASA can no longer afford to operate in this manner. GTAS improves control center productivity and effectiveness because it provides a generic solution across multiple missions. Thus, GTAS eliminates the need for each individual mission to develop duplicate capabilities. It also allows for more sophisticated tools to be developed because it draws resources from several projects. In addition, the GTAS software system incorporates commercial off-the-shelf tools software (COTS) packages and reuses components of other NASA-developed systems wherever possible. GTAS has incorporated lessons learned from previous missions by involving the users early in the development process. GTAS users took a proactive role in requirements analysis, design, development, and testing. Because of user involvement, several special tools were designed and are now being developed. GTAS users expressed considerable interest in facilitating data collection for long term trending and analysis. As a result, GTAS provides easy access to large volumes of processed telemetry data directly in the control center. The GTAS archival and retrieval capabilities are supported by the integration of optical disk technology and a COTS relational database management system.

Automatised data quality monitoring of the LHCb Vertex Locator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bel, L.; Crocombe, A. Ch.; Gersabeck, M.; Pearce, A.; Majewski, M.; Szumlak, T.

2017-10-01

The LHCb Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon strip semiconductor detector operating at just 8mm distance to the LHC beams. Its 172,000 strips are read at a frequency of 1.1 MHz and processed by off-detector FPGAs followed by a PC cluster that reduces the event rate to about 10 kHz. During the second run of the LHC, which lasts from 2015 until 2018, the detector performance will undergo continued change due to radiation damage effects. This necessitates a detailed monitoring of the data quality to avoid adverse effects on the physics analysis performance. The VELO monitoring infrastructure has been re-designed compared to the first run of the LHC when it was based on manual checks. The new system is based around an automatic analysis framework, which monitors the performance of new data as well as long-term trends and using dedicated algorithms flags issues whenever they arise. The new analysis framework then analyses the plots that are produced by these algorithms. One of its tasks is to perform custom comparisons between the newly processed data and that from reference runs. The most-likely scenario in which this analysis would identify an issue is the parameters of the readout electronics no longer being optimal and requiring retuning. The data of the monitoring plots can be reduced further, e.g. by evaluating averages, and these quantities are input to long-term trending. This is used to detect slow variation of quantities, which are not detectable by the comparison of two nearby runs. Such gradual change is what is expected due to radiation damage effects. It is essential to detect these changes early such that measures can be taken, e.g. adjustments of the operating voltage, to prevent any impact on the quality of high-level quantities and thus on physics analyses. The plots as well as the analysis results and trends are made available through graphical user interfaces (GUIs). These GUIs are dynamically configured by a single configuration that determines the choice and arrangement of plots and trends and ensures a common look and feel.

VisualUrText: A Text Analytics Tool for Unstructured Textual Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol, Zuraini; Jaymes, Mohd T. H.; Nohuddin, Puteri N. E.

2018-05-01

The growing amount of unstructured text over Internet is tremendous. Text repositories come from Web 2.0, business intelligence and social networking applications. It is also believed that 80-90% of future growth data is available in the form of unstructured text databases that may potentially contain interesting patterns and trends. Text Mining is well known technique for discovering interesting patterns and trends which are non-trivial knowledge from massive unstructured text data. Text Mining covers multidisciplinary fields involving information retrieval (IR), text analysis, natural language processing (NLP), data mining, machine learning statistics and computational linguistics. This paper discusses the development of text analytics tool that is proficient in extracting, processing, analyzing the unstructured text data and visualizing cleaned text data into multiple forms such as Document Term Matrix (DTM), Frequency Graph, Network Analysis Graph, Word Cloud and Dendogram. This tool, VisualUrText, is developed to assist students and researchers for extracting interesting patterns and trends in document analyses.

Environmental analysis and monitoring for recreational farms in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Wen-Chuan; Lin, Chun-Nan; Wongchai, Anupong

2017-11-01

The rapid growth of recreational farms and leisure industry has fiercely faced competitive in a Taiwan’s market to achieve business development sustainability trends. Effective business development strategy has become a key of the business performance management to help develop and implement growth opportunities. Recreational farms have functional products, culture, and natural resources as essential elements for the business development of local cuisine. The purpose of this study is, based on the SWOT analysis, to understand the current situation of catering business in recreational farms in Taiwan and to analyze the trends in development to discover how to operate local food restaurant business in recreational farms successfully and create long-term value for a business from customers, markets, and related parties. This research collected a total of 300 questionnaires from recreational farm tourists and excellent recreational farm entrepreneurs, as well as on-site staffs in an outstanding recreational farm. The results of this study provided a reference and guidelines of trends in development for the entrepreneurs to create a modern niche market.

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, S.; Böhner, J.; Lucarini, V.

2015-03-01

Largely depending on meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus basin (UIB) contribute to half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, we present a comprehensive hydro-climatic trend analysis over the UIB, including for the first time observations from high-altitude automated weather stations. We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961-2012). We apply Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen's slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July-October (March-May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961-2012). We also find general cooling in Tx and a mixed response in Tavg during the winter season and a year round decrease in DTR, which are in direct contrast to their long term trends. The observed decrease in DTR is stronger and more significant at high altitude stations (above 2200 m a.s.l.), and mostly due to higher cooling in Tx than in Tn. Moreover, we find a field significant decrease (increase) in late-monsoonal precipitation for lower (higher) latitudinal regions of Himalayas (Karakoram and Hindukush), whereas an increase in winter precipitation for Hindukush, western- and whole Karakoram, UIB-Central, UIB-West, UIB-West-upper and whole UIB regions. We find a spring warming (field significant in March) and drying (except for Karakoram and its sub-regions), and subsequent rise in early-melt season flows. Such early melt response together with effective cooling during monsoon period subsequently resulted in a substantial drop (weaker increase) in discharge out of higher (lower) latitudinal regions (Himalaya and UIB-West-lower) during late-melt season, particularly during July. These discharge tendencies qualitatively differ to their long term trends for all regions, except for UIB-West-upper, western-Karakorum and Astore. The observed hydroclimatic trends, being driven by certain changes in the monsoonal system and westerly disturbances, indicate dominance (suppression) of nival (glacial) runoff regime, altering substantially the overall hydrology of UIB in future. These findings largely contribute to address the hydroclimatic explanation of the "Karakoram Anomaly".

Plutonium in the atmosphere: A global perspective.

PubMed

Thakur, P; Khaing, H; Salminen-Paatero, S

2017-09-01

A number of potential source terms have contributed plutonium isotopes to the atmosphere. The atmospheric nuclear weapon tests conducted between 1945 and 1980 and the re-entry of the burned SNAP-9A satellite in 1964, respectively. It is generally believed that current levels of plutonium in the stratosphere are negligible and compared with the levels generally found at surface-level air. In this study, the time trend analysis and long-term behavior of plutonium isotopes ( 239+240 Pu and 238 Pu) in the atmosphere were assessed using historical data collected by various national and international monitoring networks since 1960s. An analysis of historical data indicates that 239+240 Pu concentration post-1984 is still frequently detectable, whereas 238 Pu is detected infrequently. Furthermore, the seasonal and time-trend variation of plutonium concentration in surface air followed the stratospheric trends until the early 1980s. After the last Chinese test of 1980, the plutonium concentrations in surface air dropped to the current levels, suggesting that the observed concentrations post-1984 have not been under stratospheric control, but rather reflect the environmental processes such as resuspension. Recent plutonium atmospheric air concentrations data show that besides resuspension, other environmental processes such as global dust storms and biomass burning/wildfire also play an important role in redistributing plutonium in the atmosphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

2011-01-01

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Tipping point analysis of ocean acoustic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livina, Valerie N.; Brouwer, Albert; Harris, Peter; Wang, Lian; Sotirakopoulos, Kostas; Robinson, Stephen

2018-02-01

We apply tipping point analysis to a large record of ocean acoustic data to identify the main components of the acoustic dynamical system and study possible bifurcations and transitions of the system. The analysis is based on a statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the data using time-series techniques. We analyse long-term and seasonal trends, system states and acoustic fluctuations to reconstruct a one-dimensional stochastic equation to approximate the acoustic dynamical system. We apply potential analysis to acoustic fluctuations and detect several changes in the system states in the past 14 years. These are most likely caused by climatic phenomena. We analyse trends in sound pressure level within different frequency bands and hypothesize a possible anthropogenic impact on the acoustic environment. The tipping point analysis framework provides insight into the structure of the acoustic data and helps identify its dynamic phenomena, correctly reproducing the probability distribution and scaling properties (power-law correlations) of the time series.

The role of philosophy in global bioethics: introducing four trends.

PubMed

Hellsten, Sirkku K

2015-04-01

This article examines the relationship between philosophy and culture in global bioethics. First, it studies what is meant by the term "global" in global bioethics. Second, the author introduces four different types, or recognizable trends, in philosophical inquiry in bioethics today. The main argument is that, in order to make better sense of the complexity of the ethical questions and challenges we face today across the globe, we need to embrace the universal nature of self-critical and analytical philosophical analysis and argumentation, rather than using seemingly philosophical approaches to give unjustified normative emphasis on different cultural approaches to bioethics.

Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

PubMed

Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

2015-08-01

Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

Competencies and Responsibilities of Social Science Data Librarians: An Analysis of Job Descriptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xia, Jingfeng; Wang, Minglu

2014-01-01

This study examines job announcements for social science data librarians and professionals to identify trends in the profession. A collection of 167 job postings in 2005-2012 from the International Association for Social Science Information Services & Technology website was analyzed on the frequencies of term occurrence and co-occurrence in…

Floods, Bottlenecks and Backwaters: An Analysis of Expansion in Higher Education in Norway.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aamodt, Per O.

1995-01-01

Discussion of the pressures for expansion in Norwegian higher education looks at both long-term trends (need for a better-educated workforce and rising level in parents' education) and current demographic, individual, and political forces (a deteriorating labor market, younger students, competition for admission). Whether this situation is unique…

The Application of Geocoded Data to Educational Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIsaac, Donald N.; And Others

The papers presented at a symposium on geocoding describe the preparation of a geocoded data file, some basic applications for education planning, and its use in trend analysis to produce contour maps for any desired characteristic. Geocoding data involves locating each entity, such as students or schools, in terms of grid coordinates on a…

Minority Enrollment Report, Fall Semester 1994. Research Report No. 2-95.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Head, Ronald B.

Each year, Piedmont Virginia Community College (PVCC) examines longitudinal data on fall term minority enrollment to identify trends which may be of interest to those involved in planning student recruitment and retention activities. The analysis for fall 1994 indicated the following: (1) 594 minority students attended PVCC during fall 1994,…

A Computer Simulation Modeling Tool to Assist Colleges in Long-Range Planning. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salmon, Richard; And Others

Long-range planning involves the establishment of educational objectives within a rational philosophy, the design of activities and programs to meet stated objectives, the organization and allocation of resources to implement programs, and the analysis of results in terms of the objectives. Current trends of educational growth and complexity…

Hardwood supply in the Pacific Northwest-a policy perspective.

Treesearch

Terry L. Raettig; Kent P. Connaughton; Glenn R. Ahrens

1995-01-01

The policy framework for the hardwood resource and hardwood industry in western Oregon and Washington is examined. Harvesting trends, harvesting behavior of public and private landowners, and harvesting regulation are presented to complete the analysis of factors affecting short-run hardwood supply. In the short term, the supply of hardwoods is generally favorable, but...

NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY: A 25 YEAR LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS OF THE CATSKILL/DELAWARE WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

A number of water bodies located within the New York City's water supply system are impaired
by nutrients, pathogens and sediment. The objective of this study was to investigate long term
landscape and water quality trends using multiple snap shots in time spanning two deca...

A Comparative Study of Parental and Filial Role Definitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Safilios Rothschild, Constantina; Georgiopoulos, John

1970-01-01

Data analysis for the American and Greek cultures indicate following trends: (1) parents of both sexes tend to define roles in terms of instrumental and expressive components, suggesting that Parsonian typology, if valid at all, applies more to lower and working class; (2) no significant social differences exist; and (3) family modernization along…

The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Fouquet, Roger; Schubert, E. Fred

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, tradedmore » at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.« less

Apprentices and Trainees: Early Trend Estimates, December 2010: Terms and Definitions. Support Document

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2011

2011-01-01

This document covers the data terms used in the "Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics: Apprentices and Trainees--Early Trend Estimates December 2010" publication. The primary purpose of this document is to assist users of the report to understand the specific data terms used within it. Terms that appear in the report…

The utility of Google Trends data to examine interest in cancer screening

PubMed Central

Schootman, M; Toor, A; Cavazos-Rehg, P; Jeffe, D B; McQueen, A; Eberth, J; Davidson, N O

2015-01-01

Objectives We examined the utility of January 2004 to April 2014 Google Trends data from information searches for cancer screenings and preparations as a complement to population screening data, which are traditionally estimated through costly population-level surveys. Setting State-level data across the USA. Participants Persons who searched for terms related to cancer screening using Google, and persons who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Primary and secondary outcome measures (1) State-level Google Trends data, providing relative search volume (RSV) data scaled to the highest search proportion per week (RSV100) for search terms over time since 2004 and across different geographical locations. (2) RSV of new screening tests, free/low-cost screening for breast and colorectal cancer, and new preparations for colonoscopy (Prepopik). (3) State-level breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancer screening rates. Results Correlations between Google Trends and BRFSS data ranged from 0.55 for ever having had a colonoscopy to 0.14 for having a Pap smear within the past 3 years. Free/low-cost mammography and colonoscopy showed higher RSV during their respective cancer awareness months. RSV for Miralax remained stable, while interest in Prepopik increased over time. RSV for lung cancer screening, virtual colonoscopy and three-dimensional mammography was low. Conclusions Google Trends data provides enormous scientific possibilities, but are not a suitable substitute for, but may complement, traditional data collection and analysis about cancer screening and related interests. PMID:26056120

Indicators of AEI applied to the Delaware Estuary.

PubMed

Barnthouse, Lawrence W; Heimbuch, Douglas G; Anthony, Vaughn C; Hilborn, Ray W; Myers, Ransom A

2002-05-18

We evaluated the impacts of entrainment and impingement at the Salem Generating Station on fish populations and communities in the Delaware Estuary. In the absence of an agreed-upon regulatory definition of "adverse environmental impact" (AEI), we developed three independent benchmarks of AEI based on observed or predicted changes that could threaten the sustainability of a population or the integrity of a community. Our benchmarks of AEI included: (1) disruption of the balanced indigenous community of fish in the vicinity of Salem (the "BIC" analysis); (2) a continued downward trend in the abundance of one or more susceptible fish species (the "Trends" analysis); and (3) occurrence of entrainment/impingement mortality sufficient, in combination with fishing mortality, to jeopardize the future sustainability of one or more populations (the "Stock Jeopardy" analysis). The BIC analysis utilized nearly 30 years of species presence/absence data collected in the immediate vicinity of Salem. The Trends analysis examined three independent data sets that document trends in the abundance of juvenile fish throughout the estuary over the past 20 years. The Stock Jeopardy analysis used two different assessment models to quantify potential long-term impacts of entrainment and impingement on susceptible fish populations. For one of these models, the compensatory capacities of the modeled species were quantified through meta-analysis of spawner-recruit data available for several hundred fish stocks. All three analyses indicated that the fish populations and communities of the Delaware Estuary are healthy and show no evidence of an adverse impact due to Salem. Although the specific models and analyses used at Salem are not applicable to every facility, we believe that a weight of evidence approach that evaluates multiple benchmarks of AEI using both retrospective and predictive methods is the best approach for assessing entrainment and impingement impacts at existing facilities.

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

PubMed

Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-10-15

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

User guide to Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends (EGRET) and dataRetrieval: R packages for hydrologic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.; De Cicco, Laura A.

2015-01-01

Evaluating long-term changes in river conditions (water quality and discharge) is an important use of hydrologic data. To carry out such evaluations, the hydrologist needs tools to facilitate several key steps in the process: acquiring the data records from a variety of sources, structuring it in ways that facilitate the analysis, processing the data with routines that extract information about changes that may be happening, and displaying findings with graphical techniques. A pair of tightly linked R packages, called dataRetrieval and EGRET (Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends), have been developed for carrying out each of these steps in an integrated manner. They are designed to easily accept data from three sources: U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic data, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) STORET data, and user-supplied flat files. The dataRetrieval package not only serves as a “front end” to the EGRET package, it can also be used to easily download many types of hydrologic data and organize it in ways that facilitate many other hydrologic applications. The EGRET package has components oriented towards the description of long-term changes in streamflow statistics (high flow, average flow, and low flow) as well as changes in water quality. For the water-quality analysis, it uses Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS) to describe long-term trends in both concentration and flux. EGRET also creates a wide range of graphical presentations of the water-quality data and of the WRTDS results. This report serves as a user guide to these two R packages, providing detailed guidance on installation and use of the software, documentation of the analysis methods used, as well as guidance on some of the kinds of questions and approaches that the software can facilitate.

Text Stream Trend Analysis using Multiscale Visual Analytics with Applications to Social Media Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steed, Chad A; Beaver, Justin M; BogenII, Paul L.

In this paper, we introduce a new visual analytics system, called Matisse, that allows exploration of global trends in textual information streams with specific application to social media platforms. Despite the potential for real-time situational awareness using these services, interactive analysis of such semi-structured textual information is a challenge due to the high-throughput and high-velocity properties. Matisse addresses these challenges through the following contributions: (1) robust stream data management, (2) automated sen- timent/emotion analytics, (3) inferential temporal, geospatial, and term-frequency visualizations, and (4) a flexible drill-down interaction scheme that progresses from macroscale to microscale views. In addition to describing thesemore » contributions, our work-in-progress paper concludes with a practical case study focused on the analysis of Twitter 1% sample stream information captured during the week of the Boston Marathon bombings.« less

Long-term trends in dissolved iron and DOC concentration linked to nitrate depletion in riparian soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musolff, Andreas; Selle, Benny; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Oosterwoud, Marieke R.; Tittel, Jörg

2016-04-01

The instream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are rising in many catchments of the northern hemisphere. Elevated concentrations of DOC, mainly in the form of colored humic components, increase efforts and costs of drinking water purification. In this study, we evaluated a long-term dataset of 110 catchments draining into German drinking water reservoirs in order to assess sources of DOC and drivers of a potential long-term change. The average DOC concentrations across the wide range of different catchments were found to be well explained by the catchment's topographic wetness index. Higher wetness indices were connected to higher average DOC concentrations, which implies that catchments with shallow topography and pronounced riparian wetlands mobilize more DOC. Overall, 37% of the investigated catchments showed a significant long-term increase in DOC concentrations, while 22% exhibited significant negative trends. Moreover, we found that increasing trends in DOC were positively correlated to trends in dissolved iron concentrations at pH≤6 due to remobilization of DOC previously sorbed to iron minerals. Both, increasing trends in DOC and dissolve iron were found to be connected to decreasing trends and low concentrations of nitrate (below ~6 mg/L). This was especially observed in forested catchments where atmospheric N-depositions were the major source for nitrate availability. In these catchments, we also found long-term increases of phosphate concentrations. Therefore, we argue that dissolved iron, DOC and phosphate were jointly released under iron-reducing conditions when nitrate as a competing electron acceptor was too low in concentrations to prevent the microbial iron reduction. In contrast, we could not explain the observed increasing trends in DOC, iron and phosphate concentrations by the long-term trends of pH, sulfate or precipitation. Altogether this study gives strong evidence that both, source and long-term increases in DOC are primarily controlled by riparian wetland soils within the catchments. Here, the achievement of a long-term reduction in nitrogen deposition may in turn lead to a more pronounced iron reduction and a subsequent release of DOC and other iron-bound substances such as phosphate.

Changes in the long-term hydrological regimes and the impacts of human activities in the main Wei River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Huang, Qiang; Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Lei; Chen, Keyu; Yu, Qijun

2016-03-01

Under the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.

Review of AIDS development. [airborne computers for reliability engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vermeulen, H. C.; Danielsson, S. G.

1981-01-01

The operation and implementation of the aircraft integrated data system AIDS are described. The system is described as an engineering tool with strong emphasis on analysis of recorded information. The AIDS is primarily directed to the monitoring of parameters related to: the safety of the flight; the performance of the aircraft; the performance of the flight guidance system; and the performance and condition of the engines. The system provide short term trend analysis on a trend chart that is updated by the flight engineer on every flight that lasts more than 4 flight hours. Engine data prints are automatically presented during take-off and in the case of limit excedance, e.g., the print shows an automatically reported impending hotstarts on engine nr. 1. Other significant features are reported.

Forecasting Japanese encephalitis incidence from historical morbidity patterns: Statistical analysis with 27 years of observation in Assam, India.

PubMed

Handique, Bijoy K; Khan, Siraj A; Mahanta, J; Sudhakar, S

2014-09-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the dreaded mosquito-borne viral diseases mostly prevalent in south Asian countries including India. Early warning of the disease in terms of disease intensity is crucial for taking adequate and appropriate intervention measures. The present study was carried out in Dibrugarh district in the state of Assam located in the northeastern region of India to assess the accuracy of selected forecasting methods based on historical morbidity patterns of JE incidence during the past 22 years (1985-2006). Four selected forecasting methods, viz. seasonal average (SA), seasonal adjustment with last three observations (SAT), modified method adjusting long-term and cyclic trend (MSAT), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) have been employed to assess the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods. The forecasting methods were validated for five consecutive years from 2007-2012 and accuracy of each method has been assessed. The forecasting method utilising seasonal adjustment with long-term and cyclic trend emerged as best forecasting method among the four selected forecasting methods and outperformed the even statistically more advanced ARIMA method. Peak of the disease incidence could effectively be predicted with all the methods, but there are significant variations in magnitude of forecast errors among the selected methods. As expected, variation in forecasts at primary health centre (PHC) level is wide as compared to that of district level forecasts. The study showed that adopted forecasting techniques could reasonably forecast the intensity of JE cases at PHC level without considering the external variables. The results indicate that the understanding of long-term and cyclic trend of the disease intensity will improve the accuracy of the forecasts, but there is a need for making the forecast models more robust to explain sudden variation in the disease intensity with detail analysis of parasite and host population dynamics.

A modeling approach to assess coastal management effects on benthic habitat quality: A case study on coastal defense and navigability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzoli, Francesco; Smolders, Sven; Eelkema, Menno; Ysebaert, Tom; Escaravage, Vincent; Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Herman, Peter M. J.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2017-01-01

The natural coastal hydrodynamics and morphology worldwide is altered by human interventions such as embankments, shipping and dredging, which may have consequences for ecosystem functionality. To ensure long-term ecological sustainability, requires capability to predict long-term large-scale ecological effects of altered hydromorphology. As empirical data sets at relevant scales are missing, there is need for integrating ecological modeling with physical modeling. This paper presents a case study showing the long-term, large-scale macrozoobenthic community response to two contrasting human alterations of the hydromorphological habitat: deepening of estuarine channels to enhance navigability (Westerschelde) vs. realization of a storm surge barrier to enhance coastal safety (Oosterschelde). A multidisciplinary integration of empirical data and modeling of estuarine morphology, hydrodynamics and benthic ecology was used to reconstruct the hydrological evolution and resulting long-term (50 years) large-scale ecological trends for both estuaries over the last. Our model indicated that hydrodynamic alterations following the deepening of the Westerschelde had negative implications for benthic life, while the realization of the Oosterschelde storm surge barriers had mixed and habitat-dependent responses, that also include unexpected improvement of environmental quality. Our analysis illustrates long-term trends in the natural community caused by opposing management strategies. The divergent human pressures on the Oosterschelde and Westerschelde are examples of what could happen in a near future for many global coastal ecosystems. The comparative analysis of the two basins is a valuable source of information to understand (and communicate) the future ecological consequences of human coastal development.

Metabolomics of prematurity: analysis of patterns of amino acids, enzymes, and endocrine markers by categories of gestational age.

PubMed

Wilson, Kumanan; Hawken, Steven; Ducharme, Robin; Potter, Beth K; Little, Julian; Thébaud, Bernard; Chakraborty, Pranesh

2014-02-01

Prematurity may influence the levels of amino acids, enzymes, and endocrine markers obtained through newborn screening. Identifying which analytes are the most affected by degree of prematurity could provide insight into how prematurity impacts metabolism. Analytes from blood spots assayed by Newborn Screening Ontario between March 2006 and April 2009 were used in this analysis. We examined the associations between the degree of prematurity and the levels of amino acids, enzymes, and endocrine markers in all newborns with and without adjustment for birth weight, feeding status, sample timing, transfusion, and sex. Our analysis included the following cohorts: 373,819 children born at term (>36 wk gestation), 26,483 near-term children (33-36 wk gestation), 4,354 very premature children (28-32 wk gestation), and 1,146 extremely premature children (<28 wk gestation). Of the amino acids showing consistent trends across categories of prematurity, the levels of three amino acids (arginine, leucine, and valine) were at least 50% different between the cohorts of extremely premature and term children. The levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone increased with increasing prematurity, while thyrotropin-stimulating hormone values consistently decreased with increasing prematurity. None of the three enzyme markers we examined showed a trend in levels across categories of prematurity. This study demonstrates that children at different stages of prematurity are metabolically distinct. Future research should focus on the mechanism by which specific analytes are influenced by prematurity.

Bias from two analytical laboratories involved in a long-term air monitoring program measuring organic pollutants in the Arctic: a quality assurance/quality control assessment.

PubMed

Su, Yushan; Hung, Hayley; Stern, Gary; Sverko, Ed; Lao, Randy; Barresi, Enzo; Rosenberg, Bruno; Fellin, Phil; Li, Henrik; Xiao, Hang

2011-11-01

Initiated in 1992, air monitoring of organic pollutants in the Canadian Arctic provided spatial and temporal trends in support of Canada's participation in the Stockholm Convention of Persistent Organic Pollutants. The specific analytical laboratory charged with this task was changed in 2002 while field sampling protocols remained unchanged. Three rounds of intensive comparison studies were conducted in 2004, 2005, and 2008 to assess data comparability between the two laboratories. Analysis was compared for organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in standards, blind samples of mixed standards and extracts of real air samples. Good measurement accuracy was achieved for both laboratories when standards were analyzed. Variation of measurement accuracy over time was found for some OCPs and PCBs in standards on a random and non-systematic manner. Relatively low accuracy in analyzing blind samples was likely related to the process of sample purification. Inter-laboratory measurement differences for standards (<30%) and samples (<70%) were generally less than or comparable to those reported in a previous inter-laboratory study with 21 participating laboratories. Regression analysis showed inconsistent data comparability between the two laboratories during the initial stages of the study. These inter-laboratory differences can complicate abilities to discern long-term trends of pollutants in a given sampling site. It is advisable to maintain long-term measurements with minimal changes in sample analysis.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region.

The DOD Humanitarian and Civic Assistance Program Concepts, Trends, Medical Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-03-01

program improvements; measuring program performance and effectiveness; and defining military roles relevant to training, long term benefits, and the...support conclusions relevant to trends, benefits, challenges, suggested improvements, and suggested areas for future research. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16...a Long Term Medical Benefit ................ 28 CONCLUSION

Trends in HIV Terminology: Text Mining and Data Visualization Assessment of International AIDS Conference Abstracts Over 25 Years

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background The language encompassing health conditions can also influence behaviors that affect health outcomes. Few published quantitative studies have been conducted that evaluate HIV-related terminology changes over time. To expand this research, this study included an analysis of a dataset of abstracts presented at the International AIDS Conference (IAC) from 1989 to 2014. These abstracts reflect the global response to HIV over 25 years. Two powerful methodologies were used to evaluate the dataset: text mining to convert the unstructured information into structured data for analysis and data visualization to represent the data visually to assess trends. Objective The purpose of this project was to evaluate the evolving use of HIV-related language in abstracts presented at the IAC from 1989 to 2014. Methods Over 80,000 abstracts were obtained from the International AIDS Society and imported into a Microsoft SQL Server database for data processing and text mining analyses. A text mining module within the KNIME Analytics Platform, an open source software, was then used to mine the partially processed data to create a terminology corpus of key HIV terms. Subject matter experts grouped the terms into categories. Tableau, a data visualization software, was used to visualize the frequency metrics associated with the terms as line graphs and word clouds. The visualized dashboards were reviewed to discern changes in terminology use across IAC years. Results The major findings identify trends in HIV-related terminology over 25 years. The term “AIDS epidemic” was dominantly used from 1989 to 1991 and then declined in use. In contrast, use of the term “HIV epidemic” increased through 2014. Beginning in the mid-1990s, the term “treatment experienced” appeared with increasing frequency in the abstracts. Use of terms identifying individuals as “carriers or victims” of HIV rarely appeared after 2008. Use of the terms “HIV positive” and “HIV infected” peaked in the early-1990s and then declined in use. The terms “men who have sex with men” and “MSM” were rarely used until 1994; subsequently, use of these terms increased through 2014. The term “sex worker” steadily increased in frequency throughout conference years, whereas the term “prostitute” decreased over time. Conclusions The results of this study highlight changes in HIV terminology use over 25 years, including the addition, disappearance, and changing use of terms that reflect advances in HIV research and medical practice and destigmatization of the disease. Coupled with findings from related quantitative research, HIV-related terminology recommendations based on results of this study are included. Adoption of these recommendations will further efforts to use less stigmatizing language and facilitate effective communication between health professionals and people affected by HIV. PMID:29728344

Decadal and seasonal trends of nutrient concentration and export from highly managed coastal catchments.

PubMed

Wan, Yongshan; Wan, Lei; Li, Yuncong; Doering, Peter

2017-05-15

Understanding anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentrations and export from highly managed catchments often necessitates trend detection using long-term monitoring data. This study analyzed the temporal trend (1979-2014) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and export from four adjacent coastal basins in south Florida where land and water resources are highly managed through an intricate canal network. The method of integrated seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (LOcally weighted regrESSion) was employed for trend detection. The results indicated that long-term trends in TN and TP concentrations (increasing/decreasing) varied with basins and nutrient species, reflecting the influence of basin specific land and water management practices. These long-term trends were intervened by short-term highs driven by high rainfall and discharges and lows associated with regional droughts. Seasonal variations in TP were more apparent than for TN. Nutrient export exhibited a chemostatic behavior for TN from all the basins, largely due to the biogenic nature of organic N associated with the ubiquity of organic materials in the managed canal network. Varying degrees of chemodynamic export was present for TP, reflecting complex biogeochemical responses to the legacy of long-term fertilization, low soil P holding capacity, and intensive stormwater management. The anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentration and export behavior had great implications in nutrient loading abatement strategies for aquatic ecosystem restoration of the downstream receiving waterbody. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multi-decadal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea: Observational evidence of early reef island recovery after the impact of storm waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Thomas; Westphal, Hildegard

2016-03-01

Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and other high-magnitude events are important steering mechanisms in the geomorphic development of coral reef islands. Sandy reef islands located outside the storm belts are strongly sensitive to the impact of occasional high-magnitude events and show abrupt, commonly erosive geomorphic change in response to such events. Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data, it is well known that the process of landform recovery might take several decades or even longer. However, despite the increasing amount of scientific attention towards short- and long-term island dynamics, the lack of data and models often prevent a robust analysis of the timing and nature of recovery initiation. Here we show how natural island recovery starts immediately after the impact of a high-magnitude event. We analyze multi-temporal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea and combine our findings with a unique set of published field observations (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014). Trends of shoreline change since 1943 and changes in planform island area indicate a long-term accretionary mode for most islands. Apparent shoreline instability is detected for the last decade of analysis, however this can be explained by the impact of storm waves in December 2008 that (temporarily?) masked the long-term trend. The transition from negative to positive rates of change in the aftermath of this storm event is indicative of inherent negative feedback processes that counteract short-term changes in energy input and represent the initiation of island recovery. Collectively, our results support the concept of dynamic rather than static reef islands and clearly demonstrate how short-term processes can influence interpretations of medium-term change.

Apprentices and Trainees: Early Trend Estimates. June 2010: Terms and Definitions. Support Document

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2010

2010-01-01

This document covers the data terms used in the "Apprentices and trainees early trend estimates June 2010" publication. The primary purpose of this document is to assist users of the report to understand the specific data terms used within it. Terms that appear in the report are listed in alphabetical order with the following information…

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p < 0.05) of an average 0.06 m year-1. Fifty-one bores (20%) exhibited significant declining groundwater levels (p < 0.05), 25 bores (10%) exhibited significant rising groundwater levels (p < 0.05), and 175 bores (70%) exhibited no significant change in groundwater levels (p > 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

Long-term change analysis of satellite-based evapotranspiration over Indian vegetated surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Shweta; Bhattacharya, Bimal K.; Krishna, Akhouri P.

2016-05-01

In the present study, trend of satellite based annual evapotranspiration (ET) and natural forcing factors responsible for this were analyzed. Thirty years (1981-2010) of ET data at 0.08° grid resolution, generated over Indian region from opticalthermal observations from NOAA PAL and MODIS AQUA satellites, were used. Long-term data on gridded (0.5° x 0.5°) annual rainfall (RF), annual mean surface soil moisture (SSM) ERS scatterometer at 25 km resolution and annual mean incoming shortwave radiation from MERRA-2D reanalysis were also analyzed. Mann-Kendall tests were performed with time series data for trend analysis. Mean annual ET loss from Indian ago-ecosystem was found to be almost double (1100 Cubic Km) than Indian forest ecosystem (550 Cubic Km). Rainfed vegetation systems such as forest, rainfed cropland, grassland showed declining ET trend @ - 4.8, -0.6 &-0.4 Cubic Kmyr-1, respectively during 30 years. Irrigated cropland initially showed ET decline upto 1995 @ -0.8 cubic Kmyr-1 which could possibly be due to solar dimming followed by increasing ET @ 0.9 cubic Kmyr-1 after 1995. A cross-over point was detected between forest ET decline and ET increase in irrigated cropland during 2008. During 2001-2010, the four agriculturally important Indian states eastern, central, western and southern showed significantly increasing ET trend with S-score of 15-25 and Z-score of 1.09-2.9. Increasing ET in western and southern states was found to be coupled with increase in annual rainfall and SSM. But in eastern and central states no significant trend in rainfall was observed though significant increase in ET was noticed. The study recommended to investigate the influence of anthropogenic factors such as increase in area under irrigation, increased use of water for irrigation through ground water pumping, change in cropping pattern and cultivars on increasing ET.

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2011-09-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from 1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m,p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990's, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air collected in the 1999/2000 cohort. Despite some limitations, the NHANES data provides a unique, long term and direct measurement of VOC exposures and trends.

Decrease in tropospheric O3 levels in the Northern Hemisphere observed by IASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Boynard, Anne; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-05-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), onboard the Metop satellite, during the first 9 years of operation (January 2008 to May 2017). Using appropriate multivariate regression methods, we differentiate significant linear trends from other sources of O3 variations captured by IASI. The geographical patterns of the adjusted O3 trends are provided and discussed on the global scale. Given the large contribution of the natural variability in comparison with that of the trend (25-85 % vs. 15-50 %, respectively) to the total O3 variations, we estimate that additional years of IASI measurements are generally required to detect the estimated O3 trends with high precision. Globally, additional 6 months to 6 years of measurements, depending on the regions and the seasons, are needed to detect a trend of |5| DU decade-1. An exception is interestingly found during summer at mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH; ˜ 40 to ˜ 75° N), where the large absolute fitted trend values (˜ |0.5| DU yr-1 on average) combined with the small model residuals (˜ 10 %) allow for detection of a band-like pattern of significant negative trends. Despite no consensus in terms of tropospheric O3 trends having been reached from the available independent datasets (UV or IR satellites, O3 sondes, aircrafts, ground-based measurements, etc.) for the reasons that are discussed in the text, this finding is consistent with the reported decrease in O3 precursor emissions in recent years, especially in Europe and USA. The influence of continental pollution on that latitudinal band is further investigated and supported by the analysis of the O3-CO relationship (in terms of correlation coefficient, regression slope and covariance) that we found to be the strongest at northern midlatitudes in summer.

VIIRS Reflective Solar Band Radiometric and Stability Evaluation Using Deep Convective Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Mu, Qiaozhen

2016-01-01

This work takes advantage of the stable distribution of deep convective cloud (DCC) reflectance measurements to assess the calibration stability and detector difference in Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) reflective bands. VIIRS Sensor Data Records (SDRs) from February 2012 to June 2015 are utilized to analyze the long-term trending, detector difference, and half angle mirror (HAM) side difference. VIIRS has two thermal emissive bands with coverage crossing 11 microns for DCC pixel identification. The comparison of the results of these two processing bands is one of the indicators of analysis reliability. The long-term stability analysis shows downward trends (up to approximately 0.4 per year) for the visible and near-infrared bands and upward trends (up to 0.5per year) for the short- and mid-wave infrared bands. The detector difference for each band is calculated as the difference relative to the average reflectance overall detectors. Except for the slightly greater than 1 difference in the two bands at 1610 nm, the detector difference is less than1 for other solar reflective bands. The detector differences show increasing trends for some short-wave bands with center wavelengths from 400 to 600 nm and remain unchanged for the bands with longer center wavelengths. The HAM side difference is insignificant and stable. Those short-wave bands from 400 to 600 nm also have relatively larger HAM side difference, up to 0.25.Comparing the striped images from SDR and the smooth images after the correction validates the analyses of detector difference and HAM side difference. These analyses are very helpful for VIIRS calibration improvement and thus enhance product quality

Diabetes research in Middle East countries; a scientometrics study from 1990 to 2012

PubMed Central

Peykari, Niloofar; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Hasannia, Tahereh; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad

2015-01-01

Background: Diabetes burden is a serious warning for urgent action plan across the world. Knowledge production in this context could provide evidences for more efficient interventions. Aimed to that, we quantify the trend of diabetes research outputs of Middle East countries focusing on the scientific publication numbers, citations, and international collaboration. Materials and Methods: This scientometrics study was performed based on the systematic analysis through three international databases; ISI, PubMed, and Scopus from 1990 to 2012. International collaboration of Middle East countries and citations was analyzed based on Scopus. Diabetes’ publications in Iran specifically were assessed, and frequent used terms were mapped by VOSviewer software. Results: Over 23-year period, the number of diabetes publications and related citations in Middle East countries had increasing trend. The number of articles on diabetes in ISI, PubMed, and Scopus were respectively; 13,994, 11,336, and 20,707. Turkey, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have devoted the five top competition positions. In addition, Israel, Turkey, and Iran were leading countries in citation analysis. The most collaborative country with Middle East countries was USA and within the region, the most collaborative country was Saudi Arabia. Iran in all databases stands on third position and produced 12.7% of diabetes publications within region. Regarding diabetes researches, the frequent used terms in Iranian articles were “effect,” “woman,” and “metabolic syndrome.” Conclusion: Ascending trend of diabetes research outputs in Middle East countries is appreciated but encouraging to strategic planning for maintaining this trend, and more collaboration between researchers is needed to regional health promotion. PMID:26109972

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Assessment of rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering in the Pacific Northwest: extreme short-term rainfall and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, T.; Kirschbaum, D.; Sobieszczyk, S.; Jasinski, M. F.; Borak, J.; Yatheendradas, S.

2017-12-01

Landslides occur every year in the U.S. Pacific Northwest due to extreme rainfall, snow cover, and rugged topography. Data for 15,000 landslide events in Washington and Oregon were assembled from State Surveys, Departments of Transportation, a Global Landslide Catalog compiled by NASA, and other sources. This new inventory was evaluated against rainfall data from the National Climate Assessment (NCA) Land Data Assimilation System to characterize the regional rainfall conditions that trigger landslides. Analysis of these data sets indicates clear differences in triggering thresholds between extreme weather systems such as a Pineapple Express and the more typical peak seasonal rainfall between November and February. The study also leverages over 30 years of precipitation and land surface information to inform variability of landslide triggering over multiple decades and landslide trends within the region.

A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.

2002-05-01

A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Nutrient and suspended-sediment trends, loads, and yields and development of an indicator of streamwater quality at nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, 1985-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langland, Michael; Blomquist, Joel; Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updates information on loads of, and trends in, nutrients and sediment annually to help the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) investigators assess progress toward improving water-quality conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. CBP scientists and managers have worked since 1983 to improve water quality in the bay. In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay. The TMDL specifies nutrient and sediment load allocations that need to be achieved in the watershed to improve dissolved oxygen, water-clarity, and chlorophyll conditions in the bay. The USEPA, USGS, and state and local jurisdictions in the watershed operate a CBP nontidal water-quality monitoring network and associated database that are used to update load and trend information to help assess progress toward reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to the bay. Data collected from the CBP nontidal network were used to estimate loads and trends for two time periods: a long-term period (1985-2010) at 31 "primary" sites (with storm sampling) and a 10-year period (2001-10) at 33 primary sites and 16 "secondary" sites (without storm sampling). In addition, loads at 64 primary sites were estimated for the period 2006 to 2010. Results indicate improving flow-adjusted trends for nitrogen and phosphorus for 1985 to 2010 at most of the sites in the network. For nitrogen, 21 of the 31 sites showed downward (improving) trends, whereas 2 sites showed upward (degrading) trends, and 8 sites showed no trends. The results for phosphorus were similar: 22 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 5 sites indicated no trends. For sediment, no trend was found at 40 percent of the sites, with 10 sites showing improving trends and 8 sites showing degrading trends. The USGS, working with CBP partners, developed a new water-quality indicator that combines the results of the 10-year trend analysis with results from a greater number of sites (64 primary sites) where loads and yields of total nitrogen and phosphorus and sediment could be calculated. The new indicator shows fewer significant trends for the 10-year time period than for the long-term time period (1985-2010). For 2001-10, total nitrogen trends were downward (improving) at 14 sites and upward (degrading) at 2 sites; no trend was found at 17 sites. For total phosphorus, 12 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 17 sites showed no trend. For total sediment, most sites (21) did not exhibit a significant trend; 3 sites showed improving trends, and 10 sites showed degrading trends. Few significant trends were seen at the 16 secondary sites: improving trends for total nitrogen at 4 sites, improving trends for total phosphorus at 2 sites, and a degrading trend for sediment at 1 site. Total streamflow to the Chesapeake Bay was 20 percent higher in 2010 than in 2009 and is considered to be within the normal range of flow, whereas annual streamflow at 28 sites was greater in 2010 than in 2009. No trends in daily streamflow were detected at the 31 long-term sites. Combined loads for the farthest downstream nontidal monitoring sites (called "River Input Monitoring sites") increased 33 percent for total nitrogen, 120 percent for total phosphorus, and 330 percent for total sediment from 2009 to 2010. The large increase in phosphorus and sediment loads in 2010 was caused in large part by two large storm events that occurred during the spring in the Potomac River Basin. Yields (load per watershed area) of total nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed decreased from north to south (New York to Virginia). No spatial patterns were discernible for total phosphorus or sediment.

Temporal modelling and forecasting of the airborne pollen of Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Silva-Palacios, Inmaculada; Fernández-Rodríguez, Santiago; Durán-Barroso, Pablo; Tormo-Molina, Rafael; Maya-Manzano, José María; Gonzalo-Garijo, Ángela

2016-02-01

Cupressaceae includes species cultivated as ornamentals in the urban environment. This study aims to investigate airborne pollen data for Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula over a 21-year period and to analyse the trends in these data and their relationship with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1993 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain). The main pollen season for Cupressaceae lasted, on average, 58 days, ranging from 55 to 112 days, from 24 January to 22 March. Furthermore, a short-term forecasting model has been developed for daily pollen concentrations. The model proposed to forecast the airborne pollen concentration is described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term is obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological parameters multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Temperature was the main meteorological factor by its influence over daily pollen forecast, being the rain the second most important factor. This model represents a good approach to a continuous balance model of Cupressaceae pollen concentration and is supported by a close agreement between the observed and predicted mean concentrations. The novelty of the proposed model is the analysis of meteorological parameters that are not frequently used in Aerobiology.

Nitrate Trends in Minnesota Rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wall, Dave; Christopherson, Dave; Lorenz, Dave; Martin, Gary

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess long-term trends (30 to 35 years) of flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite+nitrate-N (hereinafter referred to as nitrate) in a way that would allow us to discern changing trends. Recognizing that these trends are commonly different from one river to another river and from one part of the state to another, our objective was to examine as many river monitoring sites across the state as possible for which sufficient long term streamflow and concentration data were available.

Emerging trend prediction in biomedical literature.

PubMed

Moerchen, Fabian; Fradkin, Dmitriy; Dejori, Mathaeus; Wachmann, Bernd

2008-11-06

We present a study on how to predict new emerging trends in the biomedical domain based on textual data. We thereby propose a way of anticipating the transformation of arbitrary information into ground truth knowledge by predicting the inclusion of new terms into the MeSH ontology. We also discuss the preparation of a dataset for the evaluation of emerging trend prediction algorithms that is based on PubMed abstracts and related MeSH terms. The results suggest that early prediction of emerging trends is possible.

Trends in Water Quality in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harned, Douglas A.; Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten M.; Terziotti, Silvia

2009-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, water-quality data for 334 streams in eight States of the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends from 1973 to 2005. Forty-four U.S. Geological Survey sites were examined for trends in pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen, and in concentrations of dissolved solids, suspended sediment, chloride, sodium, sulfate, silica, potassium, dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, total ammonia, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. An additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval database were tested for trends in total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the 1975-2004 and 1993-2004 periods. The seasonal Kendall test or Tobit regression was used to detect trends. Concentrations of dissolved constituents have increased in the Southeast during the last 30 years. Specific conductance increased at 62 percent and decreased at 3 percent of the sites, and pH increased at 31 percent and decreased at 11 percent of the sites. Decreasing trends in total nitrogen were detected at 49 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 10 percent of the sites. Ammonia concentrations decreased at 27 percent of the sites and increased at 6 percent of the sites. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations increased at 29 percent of the sites and decreased at 10 percent of the sites. These results indicate that the changes in stream nitrogen concentrations generally coincided with improved municipal wastewater-treatment methods. Long-term decreasing trends in total phosphorus were detected at 56 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 8 percent of the sites. Concentrations of phosphorus have decreased over the last 35 years, which coincided with phosphate-detergent bans and improvements in wastewater treatment that were implemented beginning in 1972. Multiple regression analysis indicated a relation between changes in atmospheric inputs and agricultural practices, and changes in water quality. A long-term water-quality and landscape trends-assessment network for the Southeast is needed to assess changes in water quality over time in response to variations in population, agricultural, wastewater, and landscape variables.

Effects of trawl selectivity and genetic parameters on fish body length under long-term trawling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Sun, Peng; Cui, He; Sheng, Huaxiang; Zhao, Fenfang; Tang, Yanli; Chen, Zelin

2015-10-01

Long-term fishing pressure affects the biological characteristics of exploited fish stocks. The biological characteristics of hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) in the East China Sea are unable to recover because of long-term trawling. Fishing induces evolutionary effects on the fish's biological characteristics. Evidence of these changes includes small size at age, a shift to earlier age structure, and early maturation. Natural and artificial selection usually affect the fish's life history. Selection can induce different chances of reproduction, and individual fish can give a different genetic contribution to the next generation. In this study, analysis of time-dependent probability of significance and test of sensitivity were used to explore the effects of fish exploitation rate, mesh size, and heritability with long-term trawling. Results showed that fishing parameters were important drivers to exploited fish population. However, genetic traits altered by fishing were slow, and the changes in biological characteristics were weaker than those caused by fishing selection. Exploitation rate and mesh size exhibited similar evolutionary trend tendency under long-term fishing. The time-dependent probability of significance trend showed a gradual growth and tended to be stable. Therefore, the direction of fishing-induced evolution and successful management of fish species require considerable attention to contribute to sustainable fisheries in China.

Global trends in research related to social media in psychology: mapping and bibliometric analysis.

PubMed

Zyoud, Sa'ed H; Sweileh, Waleed M; Awang, Rahmat; Al-Jabi, Samah W

2018-01-01

Social media, defined as interactive Web applications, have been on the rise globally, particularly among adults. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of the literature related to the most used social network worldwide (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Snapchat, and Instagram) in the field of psychology. Specifically, this study will assess the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, author productivity, emerging topics and the mapping of frequent terms in publications pertaining to social media in the field of psychology. Publications related to social media in the field of psychology published between 2004 and 2014 were obtained from the Web of Science. The records extracted were analysed for bibliometric characteristics such as the growth in publications, citation analysis, international collaboration, emerging topics and the mapping of frequent terms in publications pertaining to social media in the field of psychology. VOSviewer v.1.6.5 was used to construct scientific maps. Overall, 959 publications were retrieved during the period between 2004 and 2015. The number of research publications in social media in the field of psychology showed a steady upward growth. Publications from the USA accounted for 57.14% of the total publications and the highest h -index (48).The most common document type was research articles (873; 91.03%). Over 99.06% of the publications were published in English. Computers in Human Behavior was the most prolific journal. The University of Wisconsin - Madison ranked first in terms of the total publications (n = 39). A visualisation analysis showed that personality psychology, experimental psychology, psychological risk factors, and developmental psychology were continual concerns of the research. This is the first study reporting the global trends in the research related to social media in the psychology field. Based on the raw data from the Web of Science, publication characteristics such as quality and quantity were assessed using bibliometric techniques over 12 years. The USA and its institutions play a dominant role in this topic. The most preferred topics related to social media in psychology are personality psychology, experimental psychology, psychological risk factors, and developmental psychology.

Trends and Issues in Educational Technology Research in Saudi Higher Education: A Meta-Analysis Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkraiji, Abdullah; Eidaroos, Abdulhadi

2016-01-01

As Information Technology expands, all industries and fields in Saudi Arabia are experiencing reduced costs and improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of operations in various systems. This has positioned the higher education sector in Saudi Arabia as the land of opportunity in terms of educational technology and its ability to support…

Gender Perspectives on Spatial Tasks in a National Assessment: A Secondary Data Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Logan, Tracy; Lowrie, Tom

2017-01-01

Most large-scale summative assessments present results in terms of cumulative scores. Although such descriptions can provide insights into general trends over time, they do not provide detail of how students solved the tasks. Less restrictive access to raw data from these summative assessments has occurred in recent years, resulting in…

Peering around the Corner: Futures Thinking for Academic Librarians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinchliffe, Lisa Janicke; Malenfant, Kara

2010-01-01

The Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL) has a long history of data collection, environmental scanning, and trends analysis. Its most recent work, "Futures Thinking for Academic Librarians," uses a 15-year horizon to look beyond the worries of the current economic cycle and the short-term future in order to anticipate the changing…

Students' and trained nurses' perceptions of their own interpersonal skills: a report and comparison.

PubMed

Morrison, P; Burnard, P

1989-04-01

The theoretical framework known as Six Category Intervention Analysis is described. This framework has been used in the teaching of interpersonal skills in various settings but there appears to be little or no empirical work to test out the theory. In the present study, an instrument was devised for assessing student nurses' perceptions of their interpersonal skills based on the category analysis. The findings of the study are presented and a quantitative comparison is made with the results of an earlier study of trained nurses' perceptions. Marked similarities were noted between the two sets of findings. The key trend to emerge was that both groups of nurses tended to perceive themselves as being more authoritative and less facilitative in their interpersonal relationships, in terms of the category analysis. This trend and others are discussed and suggestions made for future directions in research and training in the field of interpersonal skills in nursing. Implications for the theory of six category intervention analysis are also discussed.

Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey M.

2004-01-01

Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.

National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David; Richmond, Bruce M.; Ruggiero, Peter; List, Jeff

2006-01-01

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. In the case of this study, the shoreline being measured is the boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the California Coast represents the first of two reports on long-term sandy shoreline change for the western U.S., the second of which will include the coast of the Pacific NW, including Oregon and Washington. A report for the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was completed in 2004 and is available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1043/. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding long-term and short-term trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for only the most recent period (1950s-1970s to lidar shoreline). The rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Due to the geomorphology of the California Coast (rocky coastline instead of beach) as well as to data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 45% of California's 1100 km of coast. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the State of California was 0.2?0.1 m/yr, an accretional trend. This is based on shoreline change rates averaged from 14,562 individual transects, of which 40% were eroding. Of the transects on which the shoreline was eroding, the long-term erosion rates were generally lowest in Southern California where coastal engineering projects have greatly altered the natural shoreline movement. On a regional scale, long-term accretion rates were either equal to (Central California) or greater than (Northern and Southern California) the long-term erosion rates, yielding the net accretional trend for the entire state. This accretional trend is most likely due to changes in the large volumes of sediment that are added to the system from large rivers and to the impact from coastal engineering and beach nourishment projects. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the state was erosional. The net short-term rate as averaged along 16,142 transects was -0.2?0.4 m/yr. Of the transects used to measure short-term change, 66% had erosional trends. In addition erosion rates were higher in the short-term period, possibly related to the localized artificial nourishment that occurred over much of the 20th century but that has recently slowed or stopped (Flick, 1993; Wiegel, 1994). Short-term accretion rates were highest in Northern California where the overall magnitudes of shoreline change are systematically higher than in Central and Southern California. The most stable (low erosion and accretion rates) California beaches were most commonly found in Central California. Seawalls and/or riprap revetments have been constructed in all three sections of California, although many of these structures were built to protect houses and infrastructures from the erosion of coastal cliffs and bluffs rather than to protect against long-term beach erosion. California permits shoreline stabilization structures where homes, buildings or other community infrastructure are imminently threatened by erosion. A second California report that is following this publication will include analyses and reports on long-term coastal cliff erosion, as this hazard is of equal or greater concern to coastal communities in many areas along the California Coast.

Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

2014-11-01

The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

A New Perspective on Increasing Activity of Extratropical Disturbances: Spatial and Temporal Trends of Wave Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, P. C.; Hsu, H. H.

2016-12-01

Changes in extratropical disturbance behavior could play an important role in climate dynamics and be responsible for a part of climate-related damage. However, robust observational evidence for long-term trends in the activity is still lacking, and understanding of how it is linked with climate phenomena is limited. In this study, we define an accumulated perturbation index (API) to quantify the variation in some scalar quantities of atmospheric disturbances. API measures the areas (e.g., % of total surface area of Earth) where a certain perturbation quantity exceeds the long-term mean value plus 0.5 standard deviations. This index reflects more realistically the ensemble impacts of a climate perturbation and/or trend (such as global warming and ENSO) on the extratropical disturbances, even though its impact on different regions might vary from year to year due to stochastic processes. API represents an integrated activity of extratropical disturbances at a given time relative to a long time span. API is calculated for the 5-day running mean and 10-30-day stream function fluctuations during DJF and JJA. The analysis reveals an increasing trend in API and variance of stream function, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The findings suggest that atmospheric extratropical disturbances have strengthened in widening areas during the past six decades, even though there might not be robust trends in wave activity at regional scales. Whether the observed trends in API are associated with certain climate patterns is under investigation. Impact of global warming is likely one of the major sources for the increasing activity. The future change in API under global warming scenarios will be further studied by analyzing the projection of the CMIP5 models.

Trends in ocean colour and chlorophyll concentration from 1889 to 2000, worldwide.

PubMed

Wernand, Marcel R; van der Woerd, Hendrik J; Gieskes, Winfried W C

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major 'greenhouse gas', and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans--but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of 'the' ocean.

Using Time Series of Landsat Data to Improve Understanding of Short- and Long-Term Changes to Vegetation Phenology in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, M. A.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Gray, J. M.

2014-12-01

Phenology, the seasonal progression of organisms through stages of dormancy, active growth, and senescence is a key regulator of ecosystem processes and is widely used as an indicator of vegetation responses to climate change. This is especially true in temperate forests, where seasonal dynamics in canopy development and senescence are tightly coupled to the climate system. Despite this, understanding of climate-phenology interactions is incomplete. A key impediment to improving this understanding is that available datasets are geographically sparse, and in most cases include relatively short time series. Remote sensing has been widely promoted as a useful tool for studies of large-scale phenology, but long-term studies from remote sensing have been limited to AVHRR data, which suffers from limitations related to its coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties in atmospheric corrections and radiometric adjustments that are used to create AVHRR time series. In this study, we used 30 years of Landsat data to quantify the nature and magnitude of long-term trends and short-term variability in the timing of spring leaf emergence and fall senescence. Our analysis focuses on temperate forest locations in the Northeastern United States that are co-located with surface meteorological observations, where we have estimated the timing of leaf emergence and leaf senescence at annual time steps using atmospherically corrected surface reflectances from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Comparison of results from Landsat against ground observations demonstrates that phenological events can be reliably estimated from Landsat time series. More importantly, results from this analysis suggest two main conclusions related to the nature of climate change impacts on temperate forest phenology. First, there is clear evidence of trends towards longer growing seasons in the Landsat record. Second, interannual variability is large, with average year-to-year variability exceeding the magnitude of total changes to the growing season that have occurred over the last three decades. Based on these results we suggest that year-to-year variability in phenology, rather than long-term trends, provides the best basis for predicting future changes in temperate forest phenology in response to climate change.

Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective

PubMed Central

Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.

2008-01-01

Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

Satellite-based Monitoring of global Precipitation using the PERSIANN system: from Weather- to Climate-scales with some application examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, A.; Yap, W.; Lauro, F.; Gouramanis, C.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Labbate, M.

2016-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the PERSIANN precipitation products from the near real time high-resolution (4km, 30 min) PERSIANN-CCS to the most recent 34+-year PERSIANN-CDR (25km, daily). It is widely believed that the hydrologic cycle has been intensifying due to global warming and the frequency and the intensity of hydrologic extremes has also been increasing. Using the long-term historical global high resolution (daily, 0.25 degree) PERSIANN-CDR dataset covering over three decades from 1983 to the present day, we assess changes in global precipitation across different spatial scales. Our results show differences in trends, depending on which spatial scale is used, highlighting the importance of spatial scale in trend analysis. In addition, while there is an easily observable increasing global temperature trend, the global precipitation trend results created by the PERSIANN-CDR dataset used in this study are inconclusive. In addition, we use PERSIANN-CDR to assess the performance of the 32 CMIP5 models in terms of extreme precipitation indices in various continent-climate zones. The assessment can provide a guide for both model developers to target regions and processes that are not yet fully captured in certain climate types, and for climate model output users to be able to select the models and/or the study areas that may best fit their applications of interest.

Satellite-based Monitoring of global Precipitation using the PERSIANN system: from Weather- to Climate-scales with some application examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, S.; Nguyen, P.; Hsu, K. L.

2017-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the PERSIANN precipitation products from the near real time high-resolution (4km, 30 min) PERSIANN-CCS to the most recent 34+-year PERSIANN-CDR (25km, daily). It is widely believed that the hydrologic cycle has been intensifying due to global warming and the frequency and the intensity of hydrologic extremes has also been increasing. Using the long-term historical global high resolution (daily, 0.25 degree) PERSIANN-CDR dataset covering over three decades from 1983 to the present day, we assess changes in global precipitation across different spatial scales. Our results show differences in trends, depending on which spatial scale is used, highlighting the importance of spatial scale in trend analysis. In addition, while there is an easily observable increasing global temperature trend, the global precipitation trend results created by the PERSIANN-CDR dataset used in this study are inconclusive. In addition, we use PERSIANN-CDR to assess the performance of the 32 CMIP5 models in terms of extreme precipitation indices in various continent-climate zones. The assessment can provide a guide for both model developers to target regions and processes that are not yet fully captured in certain climate types, and for climate model output users to be able to select the models and/or the study areas that may best fit their applications of interest.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Statistical analysis of financial returns for a multiagent order book model of asset trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Golke, Sebastian; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J.

2007-07-01

We recently introduced a realistic order book model [T. Preis , Europhys. Lett. 75, 510 (2006)] which is able to generate the stylized facts of financial markets. We analyze this model in detail, explain the consequences of the use of different groups of traders, and focus on the foundation of a nontrivial Hurst exponent based on the introduction of a market trend. Our order book model supports the theoretical argument that a nontrivial Hurst exponent implies not necessarily long-term correlations. A coupling of the order placement depth to the market trend can produce fat tails, which can be described by a truncated Lévy distribution.

Long-term growth trends of red spruce and fraser fir at Mt. Rogers, Virginia and Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina

Treesearch

J.C.G. Goelz; Thomas E. Burk; Shepard M. Zedaker

1999-01-01

Cross-sectional area growth and height growth of Fraser fir and red spruce trees growing in Virginia and North Carolina were analyzed to identify possible long-term growth trends. Cross-sectional area growth provided no evidence of growth decline. The individual discs were classified according to parameter estimates of the growth trend equation. The predominant pattern...

Assessing the influence of small fires on trends in fire regime features at mainland Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-04-01

Small fires, i.e. fires smaller than 1 Ha, represent a huge proportion of total wildfire occurrence in the Mediterranean region. In the case of Spain, around 53% of fires in the period 1988-2013 fall into this category according to the Spanish EGIF statistics. However, the proportion of small fires is not stationary over time. Small fires are usually excluded from most analysis, given the chance of introducing or falling into temporal bias, being almost mandatory in those assessments using data before the 90s. Inconsistences and inhomogeneity problems related to the diversity of criteria and/or registration procedures among Autonomous Regions are found before that date, although it is widely agreed that small fires are consistently registered starting from 1988. Nevertheless, in terms of fire regimen characterization it is important to know to what extent small fires contribute to the overall fire behaviour. The aim of this study is to analyse spatial-temporal trends of several fire features such as total number of fires and burned area, number and burned area of natural and human fires, and the proportion of natural/human cause in the period 1988-2013 at province level (NUTS3). The analysis is conducted at the mainland Spain at annual and seasonal time scales. We are mainly interested in exploring differences in spatial-temporal trends including or excluding small fires and dealing with them separately as well. This allows determining the extent to which small fires may affect fire regime characterization. We employed a Mann-Kendall test for trend detection and Sen's slope to evaluate the magnitude of the change. Both tests were applied for each fire feature aggregated at NUTS3 level for both autumn-winter and spring-summer seasons. Our results show significant changes in the evolution of annual wildfire frequency; especially strong when small fires are accounted for. A similar outcome was observed in natural and human number fires during the spring-summer season. The increase in number of fires seems to be reversed during autumn-winter. At seasonal scale, the inclusion of small fires allows to detect significant trends in all of fire frequency features, except natural fires. In turn, neither burned area features do not significantly affect the trends through incorporating small fires. Therefore, the inclusion/exclusion of small fires do influence observed trends mostly in terms of fire frequency.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, K.; Wolock, D.; Dettinger, M. D.

2014-12-01

There is a great deal of interest in streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have focused on perennial streams, and only a few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objective in this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the semi-arid regions of the western United States. This study was carried out at 45 intermittent streams that had a minimum of 45 years of daily-streamgage record by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results showed strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate. The decadal analysis, in contrast, suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years.

PubMed

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-10-26

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years

PubMed Central

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-01-01

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections. PMID:27782160

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

1993-01-01

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

seawaveQ: an R package providing a model and utilities for analyzing trends in chemical concentrations in streams with a seasonal wave (seawave) and adjustment for streamflow (Q) and other ancillary variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2013-01-01

The seawaveQ R package fits a parametric regression model (seawaveQ) to pesticide concentration data from streamwater samples to assess variability and trends. The model incorporates the strong seasonality and high degree of censoring common in pesticide data and users can incorporate numerous ancillary variables, such as streamflow anomalies. The model is fitted to pesticide data using maximum likelihood methods for censored data and is robust in terms of pesticide, stream location, and degree of censoring of the concentration data. This R package standardizes this methodology for trend analysis, documents the code, and provides help and tutorial information, as well as providing additional utility functions for plotting pesticide and other chemical concentration data.

Overview of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere(LOTUS) SPARC Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Hubert, D.; Godin-Beekman, S.; Damadeo, R. P.; Sofieva, V.; Hassler, B.

2017-12-01

WMO/UNEP Assessments on the state of the ozone layer (aka Ozone Assessments) require an accurate evaluation of both total ozone and ozone profile long-term trends. These trend results are of utmost importance in order to evaluate the success of the Montreal Protocol with regards to the recovery of the ozone layer and the effect of climate change on this recovery, in the main regions of the stratosphere (polar, mid-latitudes, tropics). A previous activity sponsored by SPARC, IO3C, IGACO-O3 and NDACC (SI2N) successfully provided estimates of ozone profile decreasing trend in the period 1979 - 1997 and recovery trend in the period 1998 -2012, from a variety of long term records, however its results were different from those published in the WMO 2014 Ozone Assessment report. For the WMO/UNEP 2018 Ozone Assessment, a clear understanding of ozone trends and their significance as a function of altitude and latitude is still needed, nearly 20 years after the peak of ozone depleting substances in the stratosphere. In the most recent years, new merged satellite data sets and long awaited homogenized ozonesonde data series have been produced. There is thus a strong interest in the scientific community to understand limitations in determining significance of ozone recovery. In order to address the issues left pending after the end of SI2N, a comprehensive evaluation of all long term data sets available together with their relative drifts was performed through the SPARC LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and uncertainties in Stratosphere) activity. Evaluation of consistencies in results from various statistical trend regression models, sensitivity to the selection of predictors, evaluation of sampling-related uncertainties and impact of the measurement error propagation on ozone trend calculation was among subjects of investigation. This presentation will provide overview of the LOTUS project goals, provide highlights of the results and discuss the future goals.

Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II-An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques.

PubMed

Porter, P Steven; Rao, S Trivikrama; Zurbenko, Igor G; Dunker, Alan M; Wolff, George T

2001-02-01

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O 3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O 3 to emission control policies.

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

2018-02-01

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The utility of Google Trends data to examine interest in cancer screening.

PubMed

Schootman, M; Toor, A; Cavazos-Rehg, P; Jeffe, D B; McQueen, A; Eberth, J; Davidson, N O

2015-06-08

We examined the utility of January 2004 to April 2014 Google Trends data from information searches for cancer screenings and preparations as a complement to population screening data, which are traditionally estimated through costly population-level surveys. State-level data across the USA. Persons who searched for terms related to cancer screening using Google, and persons who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). (1) State-level Google Trends data, providing relative search volume (RSV) data scaled to the highest search proportion per week (RSV100) for search terms over time since 2004 and across different geographical locations. (2) RSV of new screening tests, free/low-cost screening for breast and colorectal cancer, and new preparations for colonoscopy (Prepopik). (3) State-level breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancer screening rates. Correlations between Google Trends and BRFSS data ranged from 0.55 for ever having had a colonoscopy to 0.14 for having a Pap smear within the past 3 years. Free/low-cost mammography and colonoscopy showed higher RSV during their respective cancer awareness months. RSV for Miralax remained stable, while interest in Prepopik increased over time. RSV for lung cancer screening, virtual colonoscopy and three-dimensional mammography was low. Google Trends data provides enormous scientific possibilities, but are not a suitable substitute for, but may complement, traditional data collection and analysis about cancer screening and related interests. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...

2018-03-05

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will be further discussed in detail.

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Beta-2 receptor agonist exposure in the uterus associated with subsequent risk of childhood asthma.

PubMed

Ogawa, Kohei; Tanaka, Satomi; Limin, Yang; Arata, Naoko; Sago, Haruhiko; Yamamoto-Hanada, Kiwako; Narita, Masami; Ohya, Yukihiro

2017-12-01

Although the beta-2 receptor agonist (B2RA) is occasionally prescribed in the prenatal period for women with preterm labor, few studies have referred to the long-term effects of intrauterine exposure to B2RA on fetus. We examined the association between intrauterine exposure to B2RA and asthma in the offspring. We obtained data from a hospital-based birth cohort study conducted in Tokyo, Japan. The outcomes of interest were three indicators, consisting of current wheeze, current asthma, and ever asthma at 5 years of age, based on the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between intrauterine B2RA exposure and outcomes. To evaluate dose-dependent risk, we categorized children into three groups according to both the cumulative dose and duration (days) and conducted trend analysis. Of 1158 children, 94 (8.1%) were exposed to B2RA in utero, and 191 (16.5%), 111 (9.6%), and 168 (14.5%) children experienced current wheeze, current asthma, and ever asthma, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, we found an increased risk of current asthma caused by B2RA exposure with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.04 (95% confidence interval: 1.02-4.05). Trend analysis showed that B2RA exposure in utero was associated with a dose-dependent increased risk of current asthma in terms of both cumulative dose and duration (P values for trend were .015 and .017, respectively). These results were similar to those for other outcome measures. Exposure to B2RA in utero could be a risk for childhood asthma. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York

PubMed Central

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children’s blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children’s blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children’s BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children’s blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children’s BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children’s blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children’s BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis. PMID:28182688

Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

PubMed

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children's BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children's blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children's BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children's blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children's BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.

Gained insights from combined high-frequency and long-term water quality monitoring in agricultural catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jomaa, Seifeddine; Dupas, Rémi; Musolff, Andreas; Rozemeijer, Joachim; Borchardt, Dietrich; Rode, Michael

2017-04-01

Despite extensive efforts to reduce nitrate (NO3) transfer in agricultural areas, the NO3 concentration in rivers often changes little. To investigate the reasons for this limited response, NO3 dynamics in a 100 km2 agricultural catchment in eastern Germany was analysed from decadal to infra-hourly time scales. First, Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) analysis of a 32-year (1982-2014) record of NO3 and discharge revealed that i) the long-term trend in NO3 concentration was closely related to that in discharge, suggesting that large-scale weather and climate patterns were masking the effect of improved nitrogen management on NO3 trends; ii) maximum winter and minimum summer concentrations had a persistent seasonal pattern, which was interpreted as a dynamic NO3 concentration from the soil and subsoil columns; and iii) the catchment progressively changed from chemodynamic to more chemostatic behaviour over the three decades of study, which is a sign of long-term homogenisation of NO3 concentrations in the profile. Second, infra-hourly (15 min time interval) analysis of storm-event dynamics during a typical hydrological year (2005-2006) was performed to identify periods of the year with high leaching risk and to link the latter to agricultural management practices in the catchment. Also, intra-hourly data was used to improve NO3 load estimation during storm events. An Event Response Reconstruction (ERR) model was built using NO3 concentration response descriptor variables and predictor variables deduced from discharge and precipitation records. The ERR approach significantly improved NO3 load estimates compared to linear interpolation of grab-sampling data (error was reduced from 10 to 1%). Finally, this study shows that detailed physical understanding of NO3 dynamics across time scales can be obtained only through combined analysis of long-term records and high-resolution sensor data. Hence, a joint effort is advocated between environmental authorities, who usually perform long-term monitoring, and scientific programmes, which usually perform high-resolution monitoring.

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystem Water-use Efficiency to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Peng, S.; Ciais, P.; Cheng, L.; Mao, J.; Poulter, B.; Shi, X.; Yao, Y.; Yang, H.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions, and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2. The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET) and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt, the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m-2 mm-1 yr-1 for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2 and NDEP.

The performance of one belt and one road exchange rate: Based on improved singular spectrum analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Lin; Guo, Kun

2017-10-01

;One Belt and One Road; strategy in China is on push of foreign trade openness at northwest, southwest and northeast, absorption of the excess capacity and new support for economic increase. However, the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate with the countries along the road is unstable so related Chinese enterprises will face high risk of exchange rate. Precise explanation or prediction for exchange rate has been the challengeable hop point in the international finance. This paper decomposed the One Belt One Road Exchange Rate Index (OBORR) and the RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (CNYX) into trend term, market fluctuation term and noise term using improved singular spectrum analysis (SSA). It turns out that the increasing velocity of OBORR is greater than that of CNYX in the long term, and there is dynamic lead-lag structure in the medium term. In the short term, the fluctuation range and frequency of OBORR are greater than those of CNYX, which means there will be more exchange rate risks in One Belt and One Road countries.

Is the economic crisis affecting birth outcome in Spain? Evaluation of temporal trend in underweight at birth (2003-2012).

PubMed

Varea, Carlos; Terán, José Manuel; Bernis, Cristina; Bogin, Barry; González-González, Antonio

2016-01-01

There is growing evidence of the impact of the current European economic crisis on health. In Spain, since 2008, there have been increasing levels of impoverishment and inequality, and important cuts in social services. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the economic crisis on underweight at birth in Spain. Trends in underweight at birth were examined between 2003 and 2012. Underweight at birth is defined as a singleton, term neonatal weight lesser than -2 SD from the median weight at birth for each sex estimated by the WHO Standard Growth Reference. Using data from the Statistical Bulletin of Childbirth, 2 933 485 live births born to Spanish mothers have been analysed. Descriptive analysis, seasonal decomposition analysis and crude and adjusted logistic regression including individual maternal and foetal variables as well as exogenous economic indicators have been performed. Results demonstrate a significant increase in the prevalence of underweight at birth from 2008. All maternal-foetal categories were affected, including those showing the lowest prevalence before the crisis. In the full adjusted logistic regression, year-on-year GDP per capita remains predictive on underweight at birth risk. Previous trends in maternal socio-demographic profiles and a direct impact of the crisis are discussed to explain the trends described.

Trends in prescriptions and costs of drugs for mental disorders in England, 1998-2010.

PubMed

Ilyas, Stephen; Moncrieff, Joanna

2012-05-01

Increasing rates of prescriptions for antidepressants, antipsychotics and stimulants have been reported from various countries. To examine trends in prescriptions and the costs of all classes of psychiatric medication in England. Data from the Prescription Cost Analysis 1998-2010 was examined, using linear regression analysis to examine trends. Prescriptions of drugs used for mental disorders increased by 6.8% (95% CI 6.3-7.4) per year on average, in line with other drugs, but made up an increasing proportion of all prescription drug costs (P = 0.001). There were rising trends in prescriptions of all classes of psychiatric drugs, except anxiolytics and hypnotics (which did not change). Antidepressant prescriptions increased by 10% (95% CI 9.0-11) per year on average, and antipsychotics by 5.1% (95% CI 4.3-5.9). Antipsychotics overtook antidepressants as the most costly class of psychiatric medication, with costs rising 22% (95% CI 17-27) per year. Rising prescriptions may be partly explained by longer-term treatment and increasing population. Nevertheless, it appears that psychiatric drugs make an increasing contribution to total prescription drug costs, with antipsychotics becoming the most costly. Low-dose prescribing of some antipsychotics is consistent with other evidence that their use may not be restricted to those with severe mental illness.

Visualization of e-Health Research Topics and Current Trends Using Social Network Analysis.

PubMed

Son, Youn-Jung; Jeong, Senator; Kang, Byeong-Gwon; Kim, Sun-Hyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

2015-05-01

E-health has been grown rapidly with significant impact on quality and safety of healthcare. However, there is a large gap between the postulated and empirically demonstrated benefits of e-health technologies and a need for a clearer mapping of its conceptual domains. Therefore, this study aimed to critically review the main research topics and trends of international e-health through social network analysis. Medical subject heading terms were used to retrieve 3,023 research articles published from 1979 through 2014 in the PubMed database. We extracted n-grams from the corpus using a text analysis program, generated co-occurrence networks, and then analyzed and visualized the networks using Pajek software. The hub and authority measures identified the most important research topics in e-health. Newly emerging topics by 4-year period units were identified as research trends. The most important research topics in e-health are personal health records (PHR), health information technology, primary care, mobile health, clinical decision support systems (CDSS), and so on. The eight groups obtained through ego network analysis can be divided into four semantically different areas, as follows: information technology, infrastructure, services, and subjects. Also, four historical trends in e-health research are identified: the first focusing on e-health and telemedicine; the second, PHR and monitoring; the third, CDSS and alert; and the fourth, mobile health and health literacy. This study promotes a systematic understanding of e-health by identifying topic networks, thereby contributing to the future direction of e-health research and education.

Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

2018-02-01

Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, N. C.; Gautam, R.; Sayer, A. M.; Bettenhausen, C.; Li, C.; Jeong, M. J.; Tsay, S.-C.; Holben, B. N.

2012-09-01

Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-yr mission. Our correlation analysis between climatic indices (such as ENSO) and AOD suggests strong relationships for Saharan dust export as well as biomass-burning activity in the tropics, associated with large-scale feedbacks. The results also indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On regional scales, distinct tendencies are found for different regions associated with natural and anthropogenic aerosol emission and transport. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Impact of land cover changes and climate on the main airborne pollen types in Southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, Herminia; Oteros, Jose Antonio; Galán, Carmen

2016-04-01

Airborne pollen concentrations strongly correlate with flowering intensity of wind-pollinated species growing at and around monitoring sites. The pollen spectrum, and the variations in its composition and concentrations, is influenced by climatic features and by available nutritional resources but it is also determined by land use and its changes. The first factor influence is well known on aerobiological researches but the impact of land cover changes has been scarcely studied until now. This paper reports on a study carried out in Southern Spain (Córdoba city) examining airborne pollen trends over a 15-year period and it explores the possible links both to changes in land use and to climate variations. The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) which decomposes long-term data series into smaller seasonal component patterns was applied. Trends were compared with recorded changes in land use at varying distances from the city in order to determine their possible influence on pollen-count variations. The influence of climate-related factors was determined by means of non-parametric correlation analysis. The STL method proved highly effective for extracting trend components from pollen time series, because their features vary widely and can change quickly in a short term. Results revealed mixed trends depending on the taxa and reflecting fluctuations in land cover and/or climate. A significant rising trend in Olea pollen counts was observed, attributable both to the increasing olive-growing area but also to changes in temperature and rainfall. Poaceae pollen concentrations also increased, due largely to an expansion of heterogeneous agricultural areas and to an increase in pollen season length positively influenced by rainfall and temperature. By contrast, the significant declining trend observed for pollen from ruderal taxa, such as Amaranthaceae, Rumex, Plantago and Urticaceae, may be linked to changes in urban planning strategies with a higher building pressure. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pervasive hydrologic effects on freshwater mussels and riparian trees in southeastern floodplain ecosystems

Treesearch

Andrew L. Rypel; Wendell R. Haag; Robert H. Findlay

2009-01-01

We present long-term growth trends for 13 freshwater mussel species from two unregulated rivers and one regulated river in the southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain. We also collected baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) tree cores adjacent to mussel collection sites in one river and directly compared tree and mussel chronologies in this river. To extend our analysis...

Long Term Trend Analysis of Geographical Disparity in Aging and Disability: Taiwanese Population Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Yong-Chen; Chou, Yu-Ching; Lin, Lan-Ping; Wu, Chia-Ling; Lin, Jin-Ding

2012-01-01

Purposes of the present paper were to describe the overtime change of disability prevalence among the elderly (65 years and older), and to analyze the geographic disparity of the disability prevalence during the year 2000-2010 in Taiwan. Study data mainly come from two public web-access information: (1) The physically and mentally disabled…

The Effectiveness of Online and Blended Learning: A Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Means, Barbara; Toyama, Yukie; Murphy, Robert F.; Baki, Marianne

2013-01-01

Background/Context: Earlier research on various forms of distance learning concluded that these technologies do not differ significantly from regular classroom instruction in terms of learning outcomes. Now that web-based learning has emerged as a major trend in both K-12 and higher education, the relative efficacy of online and face-to-face…

Trends in Dissertations Involving Technology-Assisted Mathematics Instruction: The Case of Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatar, Enver; Akkaya, Adnan; Kagizmanli, Türkan Berrin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine thesis studies on technology-supported mathematics education in Turkey in terms of the keywords, mathematical areas, technologies and methodology used and results obtained. Data were obtained from 105 graduate theses. At the end of the analysis of the data, it was determined that most used keywords were from…

Interstate 80 freight corridor analysis : current freight traffic, trends and projections in special consideration of Wyoming policy-makers in planning, engineering, highway safety and enforcement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

"This report is the result of a two-part study intended to provide input to WYDOTs long-term planning process for the I-80 facility. The first phase of the study involved an on-the-ground freight survey of over 2,000 truckers traveling eastbound a...

Data Validation for Earth Probe-Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, John L.

1995-01-01

This presentation represents the final report for the NASA grant project. The goal of this project was to provide scientific analysis to aid in validation fo data sets used in detection of long term global trends of total ozone. Ozone data from the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer instrument was compared for validation purposes with features in previous TOMS data. Atmospheric dynamic concepts were used in the analysis. The publications sponsored by the grant are listed along with abstracts.

Computer applications in scientific balloon quality control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seely, Loren G.; Smith, Michael S.

Seal defects and seal tensile strength are primary determinants of product quality in scientific balloon manufacturing; they therefore require a unit of quality measure. The availability of inexpensive and powerful data-processing tools can serve as the basis of a quality-trends-discerning analysis of products. The results of one such analysis are presently given in graphic form for use on the production floor. Software descriptions and their sample outputs are presented, together with a summary of overall and long-term effects of these methods on product quality.

The National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the United States: Strategies for Monitoring Trends and Results from the First Two Decades of Study: 1991-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, B.; McMahon, P.; Rupert, M.; Tesoriero, J.; Starn, J.; Anning, D.; Green, C.

2012-04-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program was implemented in 1991 to provide long-term, consistent, and comparable information on the quality of surface and groundwater resources of the United States. Findings are used to support national, regional, state, and local information needs with respect to water quality. The three main goals of the program are to 1) assess the condition of the nation's streams, rivers, groundwater, and aquatic systems; 2) assess how conditions are changing over time; and 3) determine how natural features and human activities affect these conditions, and where those effects are most pronounced. As data collection progressed into the second decade, the emphasis of the interpretation of the data has shifted from primarily understanding status, to evaluation of trends. The program has conducted national and regional evaluations of change in the quality of water in streams, rivers, groundwater, and health of aquatic systems. Evaluating trends in environmental systems requires complex analytical and statistical methods, and a periodic re-evaluation of the monitoring methods used to collect these data. Examples given herein summarize the lessons learned from the evaluation of changes in water quality during the past two decades with an emphasis on the finding with respect to groundwater. The analysis of trends in groundwater is based on 56 well networks located in 22 principal aquifers of the United States. Analysis has focused on 3 approaches: 1) a statistical analysis of results of sampling over various time scales, 2) studies of factors affecting trends in groundwater quality, and 3) use of models to simulate groundwater trends and forecast future trends. Data collection for analysis of changes in groundwater-quality has focused on decadal resampling of wells. Understanding the trends in groundwater quality and the factors affecting those trends has been conducted using quarterly sampling, biennial sampling, and more recently continuous monitoring of selected parameters in a small number of wells. Models such as MODFLOW have been used for simulation and forecasting of future trends. Important outcomes from the groundwater-trends studies include issues involving statistics, sampling frequency, changes in laboratory analytical methods over time, the need for groundwater age-dating information, the value of understanding geochemical conditions and contaminant degradation, the need to understand groundwater-surface water interaction, and the value of modeling in understanding trends and forecasting potential future conditions. Statistically significant increases in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were found in a large number of well networks over the first decadal sampling period. Statistically significant decreases of chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were found in a very small number of networks. Trends in surface-water are analyzed within 8 large major river basins within the United States with a focus on issues of regional importance. Examples of regional surface-water issues include an analysis of trends in dissolved solids in the Southeastern United States, trends in pesticides in the north-central United States, and trends in nitrate in the Mississippi River Basin. Evaluations of ecological indicators of water quality include temporal changes in stream habitat, and aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages.

Trends in Surface-Water Nitrate-N Concentrations and Loads from Predominantly-Forested Watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshleman, K. N.

2011-12-01

Water quality monitoring data from streams and rivers provide the "gold standard" by which progress toward achieving real reductions in nutrient loadings to Chesapeake Bay must ultimately be assessed. The most recent trend results posted at the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) website reveal that a substantial percentage of tributaries are now showing long-term declines in flow-adjusted concentrations of nutrients and sediments: 22 sites showed statistically significant (p < 0.05) downward trends (1985-2010) in flow-adjusted concentrations, two sites showed upward trends, and eight sites showed no trend. Based on the data, the CBP has drawn the following conclusion: "At many monitored locations, long-term trends indicate that management actions, such as pollution controls for improved wastewater treatment plants and practices to reduce nutrients on farms and suburban lands, have reduced concentrations of nitrogen." But could this conclusion be pre-mature? I recently undertook a comparable analysis of long-term nitrate-N trends for a different group of watersheds (all located in the Chesapeake Bay watershed with long data records); this group includes nine watersheds that are predominantly (i.e., >75%) forested, plus five other Potomac River subwatersheds added for comparison. Based on comparable data and analytical methods to those used by CBP partners and USGS, 13 of the 14 sites-including both Potomac River stations (Chain Bridge at Washington DC and Hancock, Maryland)-showed statistically significant decreasing linear trends in annual flow-weighted nitrate-N concentration. Only one station-the heavily agricultural Upper Monocacy River-did not show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) trend. Five of the predominantly-forested watersheds also showed statistically significant decreasing trends in annual nitrate-N loads, and none of the stations showed a trend in annual runoff presumably due to high inter-annual hydroclimatological variability. While the largest absolute changes in nitrate-N concentration corresponded to the least forested watersheds, the largest percentage changes in nitrate-N concentration were actually observed for those watersheds with the greatest percentages of forestland. This result suggests that the natural dynamics of forests may be playing a very important (and under-appreciated) role in improving water quality throughout the Bay watershed. A second interesting finding was that the statistically significant reductions in annual nitrate-N concentration at the Potomac River RIM station could be entirely explained by commensurate improvements at the upstream (Hancock) station; in fact, no trend in nitrate-N concentration associated with the eastern portion of the basin was found (after subtracting out the influence of the upstream portion). Additional research is needed to understand why nitrogen retention by forested lands may be increasing and thus helping restore water quality throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The results also have obvious implications for meeting local water quality goals as well as the basin-wide goal of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL for nitrogen.

Trends in the Study of Motivation in Schizophrenia: A Bibliometric Analysis of Six Decades of Research (1956-2017).

PubMed

Najas-Garcia, Antonia; Carmona, Viviana R; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2018-01-01

Motivation in schizophrenia has been a key research aim for several decades. Motivation is a very complex process underlying negative symptoms that has been assessed and identified using very different instruments and terminologies. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the growing literature production and highlights an extensive set of variables to better understand the study of motivation. Electronic databases were searched in order to compile relevant studies of motivation in individuals with schizophrenia. The initial search identified 3,248 potentially interesting records, and of these, 161 articles published between 1956 and 2017 were finally included. Information such as year of publication, journal, country, and number of authors was codified. Variables related to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and motivational terms were also extracted. The results revealed a significant growth trend in literature production, especially since the 2000s, with reward as the main term studied. In addition, questionnaires were identified as the preferred instrument to assess motivation in patients with schizophrenia. Other aspects such as country of publication, authors, journals of publication, and co-citation network analysis were also examined. The discussion offers recommendations for future research.

Trends in the Study of Motivation in Schizophrenia: A Bibliometric Analysis of Six Decades of Research (1956–2017)

PubMed Central

Najas-Garcia, Antonia; Carmona, Viviana R.; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2018-01-01

Motivation in schizophrenia has been a key research aim for several decades. Motivation is a very complex process underlying negative symptoms that has been assessed and identified using very different instruments and terminologies. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the growing literature production and highlights an extensive set of variables to better understand the study of motivation. Electronic databases were searched in order to compile relevant studies of motivation in individuals with schizophrenia. The initial search identified 3,248 potentially interesting records, and of these, 161 articles published between 1956 and 2017 were finally included. Information such as year of publication, journal, country, and number of authors was codified. Variables related to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and motivational terms were also extracted. The results revealed a significant growth trend in literature production, especially since the 2000s, with reward as the main term studied. In addition, questionnaires were identified as the preferred instrument to assess motivation in patients with schizophrenia. Other aspects such as country of publication, authors, journals of publication, and co-citation network analysis were also examined. The discussion offers recommendations for future research. PMID:29515471

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle and Cloud Effects on the Surface Radiation Budget of the SURFRAD Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, C. N.; Augustine, J. A.; McComiskey, A. C.

2017-12-01

The NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Monitoring Division (GMD) operates a network of seven surface radiation budget sites (SURFRAD) across the continental United States. The SURFRAD network was established in 1993 with the primary objective to support climate research with accurate, continuous, long-term measurements of the surface radiation budget over the United States and is a major contributor to the WMO international Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The data from the SURFRAD sites have been used in many studies including trend analyses of surface solar brightening (Long et al, 2009; Augustine and Dutton, 2013; Gan et al., 2015). These studies have focused mostly on long term aggregate trends. Here we will present results of studies that take a closer look across the years of the cloud influence on the surface radiation budget components partitioned by seasonal and diurnal analyses, and using derived quantities now available from the SURFRAD data archive produced by the Radiative Flux Analysis value added processing. The results show distinct differences between the sites surface radiative energy budgets and cloud radiative effects due to their differing climates and latitudinal locations.

Relation between annual trends in food pantry use and long-term unemployment in New York State, 2002-2012.

PubMed

Shackman, Gene; Yu, Chengxuan; Edmunds, Lynn S; Clarke, Lewis; Sekhobo, Jackson P

2015-03-01

We examined the correlation between trends in meals provided through food pantries and long-term unemployment from 2002 through 2012. The New York State Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program provided about 192 million meals through food pantries in 2012-double the number before the Great Recession. Annual food pantry use was strongly correlated with long-term unemployment and remained on an upward trend from 2006 through 2012, even after the Great Recession had ended. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce hunger and food insecurity should continue to be priorities.

Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

2014-05-01

A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides compelling evidence for the hypothesis that cold water species are gradually being replaced by more temperate species in the North Atlantic. This may have detrimental effects for the entire marine ecosystem, by affecting on organisms such as fish larva for example. The second group, a phytoplankton subset consisting primarily of diatom species, is primarily influenced by the AMO rather than the average temperature trend. This result highlights the importance of natural oscillations to certain functional groups, in particular those subgroups which are less directly metabolically affected by changes in temperature.

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2015-01-01

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Managed care, networks and trends in hospital care for mental health and substance abuse treatment in Massachusetts: 1994-1999.

PubMed

Fleming, Elaine; Lien, Hsienming; Ma, Ching-To Albert; McGuire, Thomas G

2003-03-01

Rates of inpatient care for mental health and substance abuse treatment have been reported to fall after the introduction of managed care, but the actual decline may be overstated. Almost all managed care impact studies are based on pre-post comparisons, which have two drawbacks: secular downward trends may be attributed to a managed care effect and self-selection may exaggerate the impact of managed care. Therefore it is useful to examine long-term population-based trends in use associated with the growth of managed care. This paper examines trends in inpatient care for mental health and substance abuse treatment in Massachusetts between 1994 and 1999 by service provider and payer. We analyze how managed care impacts the trends in mental health and substance abuse care. We provide an overview of the health market in Massachusetts and compare trends in mental health and substance abuse services with all inpatient services. To analyze the impact of managed care, we compare the per discharge cost of managed care and fee for service plans in Medicare and Medicaid. Finally, we examine the role played by hospital networks in managed care. The reduction in service costs for mental health and substance abuse, about 25% in six years, is mostly due to the decline in the average cost per inpatient episode. This is only slightly greater than the decline in costs for all inpatient care. Managed care has reduced both the quantity (average length of stay) and intensity of health care (expenditure per day). Simulations suggest that the creation of hospital networks by managed care accounts for around 50% of the differential between the average costs of the HMO and FFS sectors. We find that the cost reductions in mental health and substance abuse services are larger than for physical health, but not by much. The average length of stay and average day cost is lower for managed care plans than for FFS plans, and much of this difference is attributable to the hospitals managed care plans select to participate in their networks. The data are limited to inpatient discharges from Massachusetts and therefore our conclusions may not be readily extended to other places. Furthermore, our analysis is based on the estimated cost rather than the actual payments to hospitals. IMPLICATION FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: The analysis highlights the importance of hospital selection and networks in affecting the cost of care. Contrary to popular belief, the analysis shows that the experience of mental health and substance abuse and non-mental health and substance abuse services is similar. Creation of networks is an important strategy in managed care. This paper provides the groundwork for extending the analysis to areas with market characteristics different to those of Massachusetts. Further research should focus on the long-term trends in health outcomes between managed care and fee for service patients.

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007.

PubMed

Zhang, Ju; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Miao, Hong; Wang, Xiaoke

2011-01-01

The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980's using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends: a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate (TSP), as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy efficiency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.

Long-term variation of total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

1988-03-01

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932 1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.

Home drinking in the UK: trends and causes.

PubMed

Foster, John H; Ferguson, Colin S

2012-01-01

To explore the trend in the UK to consume alcohol at home rather than at licensed premises. A Medline search entering the terms 'home drinking', 'alcohol' and 'adult' covering the period 2000-2011 yielded 48 articles, of which 6 met the criteria to be included in the review. Grey literature including survey and market research data were reviewed. In the UK, since 1970 there has been trend for beer to be consumed at home more often than in licensed premises and that the overall trend towards greater home drinking has increased since 2000. The main reasons given are convenience, cost, safety, autonomy and stress relief. There has also been an increase in the practice known as 'pre-loading' (drinking before going out). Adults who drink mainly at home report that they are aware that they run a risk of higher overall alcohol consumption but tend to play down the possibility that increased consumption may lead to longer-term harm. Home drinking trends may have long-term public health consequences. Greater understanding of the drivers of this trend will help policy-makers to respond to these societal changes.

[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Trends in HIV Terminology: Text Mining and Data Visualization Assessment of International AIDS Conference Abstracts Over 25 Years.

PubMed

Dancy-Scott, Nicole; Dutcher, Gale A; Keselman, Alla; Hochstein, Colette; Copty, Christina; Ben-Senia, Diane; Rajan, Sampada; Asencio, Maria Guadalupe; Choi, Jason Jongwon

2018-05-04

The language encompassing health conditions can also influence behaviors that affect health outcomes. Few published quantitative studies have been conducted that evaluate HIV-related terminology changes over time. To expand this research, this study included an analysis of a dataset of abstracts presented at the International AIDS Conference (IAC) from 1989 to 2014. These abstracts reflect the global response to HIV over 25 years. Two powerful methodologies were used to evaluate the dataset: text mining to convert the unstructured information into structured data for analysis and data visualization to represent the data visually to assess trends. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the evolving use of HIV-related language in abstracts presented at the IAC from 1989 to 2014. Over 80,000 abstracts were obtained from the International AIDS Society and imported into a Microsoft SQL Server database for data processing and text mining analyses. A text mining module within the KNIME Analytics Platform, an open source software, was then used to mine the partially processed data to create a terminology corpus of key HIV terms. Subject matter experts grouped the terms into categories. Tableau, a data visualization software, was used to visualize the frequency metrics associated with the terms as line graphs and word clouds. The visualized dashboards were reviewed to discern changes in terminology use across IAC years. The major findings identify trends in HIV-related terminology over 25 years. The term "AIDS epidemic" was dominantly used from 1989 to 1991 and then declined in use. In contrast, use of the term "HIV epidemic" increased through 2014. Beginning in the mid-1990s, the term "treatment experienced" appeared with increasing frequency in the abstracts. Use of terms identifying individuals as "carriers or victims" of HIV rarely appeared after 2008. Use of the terms "HIV positive" and "HIV infected" peaked in the early-1990s and then declined in use. The terms "men who have sex with men" and "MSM" were rarely used until 1994; subsequently, use of these terms increased through 2014. The term "sex worker" steadily increased in frequency throughout conference years, whereas the term "prostitute" decreased over time. The results of this study highlight changes in HIV terminology use over 25 years, including the addition, disappearance, and changing use of terms that reflect advances in HIV research and medical practice and destigmatization of the disease. Coupled with findings from related quantitative research, HIV-related terminology recommendations based on results of this study are included. Adoption of these recommendations will further efforts to use less stigmatizing language and facilitate effective communication between health professionals and people affected by HIV. ©Nicole Dancy-Scott, Gale A Dutcher, Alla Keselman, Colette Hochstein, Christina Copty, Diane Ben-Senia, Sampada Rajan, Maria Guadalupe Asencio, Jason Jongwon Choi. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 04.05.2018.

Longitudinal data analysis in support of functional stability concepts for leachate management at closed municipal landfills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibbons, Robert D., E-mail: rdg@uchicago.edu; Morris, Jeremy W.F., E-mail: jmorris@geosyntec.com; Prucha, Christopher P., E-mail: cprucha@wm.com

2014-09-15

Highlights: • Longitudinal data analysis using a mixed-effects regression model. • Dataset consisted of a total of 1402 samples from 101 closed municipal landfills. • Target analytes and classes generally showed predictable degradation trends. • Validates historical studies focused on macro organic indicators such as BOD. • BOD can serve as “gateway” indicator for planning leachate management. - Abstract: Landfill functional stability provides a target that supports no environmental threat at the relevant point of exposure in the absence of active control systems. With respect to leachate management, this study investigates “gateway” indicators for functional stability in terms of themore » predictability of leachate characteristics, and thus potential threat to water quality posed by leachate emissions. Historical studies conducted on changes in municipal solid waste (MSW) leachate concentrations over time (longitudinal analysis) have concentrated on indicator compounds, primarily chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). However, validation of these studies using an expanded database and larger constituent sets has not been performed. This study evaluated leachate data using a mixed-effects regression model to determine the extent to which leachate constituent degradation can be predicted based on waste age or operational practices. The final dataset analyzed consisted of a total of 1402 samples from 101 MSW landfills. Results from the study indicated that all leachate constituents exhibit a decreasing trend with time in the post-closure period, with 16 of the 25 target analytes and aggregate classes exhibiting a statistically significant trend consistent with well-studied indicators such as BOD. Decreasing trends in BOD concentration after landfill closure can thus be considered representative of trends for many leachate constituents of concern.« less

Water, energy and agricultural landuse trends at Shiroro hydropower station and environs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegun, Olubunmi; Ajayi, Olalekan; Badru, Gbolahan; Odunuga, Shakirudeen

2018-02-01

The study examines the interplay among water resources, hydropower generation and agricultural landuse at the Shiroro hydropower station and its environs, in north-central Nigeria. Non-parametric trend analysis, hydropower footprint estimation, reservoir performance analysis, change detection analysis, and inferential statistics were combined to study the water-energy and food security nexus. Results of Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator for the period 1960 to 2013 showed a declining rainfall trend at Jos, around River Kaduna headwaters at -2.6 mm yr-1, while rainfall at Kaduna and Minna upstream and downstream of the reservoir respectively showed no trend. Estimates of hydropower footprint varied between 130.4 and 704.1 m3 GJ-1 between 1995 and 2013. Power generation reliability and resilience of the reservoir was 31.6 and 38.5 % respectively with year 2011 being the most vulnerable and least satisfactory. In addition to poor reliability and resilience indices, other challenges militating against good performance of hydropower generation includes population growth and climate change issues as exemplified in the downward trend observed at the headwaters. Water inflow and power generation shows a weak positive relationship with correlation coefficient (r) of 0.48, indicating less than optimal power generation. Total area of land cultivated increased from 884.59 km2 in 1986 prior to the commissioning of the hydropower station to 1730.83 km2 in 2016 which signifies an increased contribution of the dam to ensuring food security. The reality of reducing upstream rainfall amount coupled with high water footprint of electricity from the reservoir, therefore requires that a long term roadmap to improve operational coordination and management have to be put in place.

Cumulative Effects of Short-Term Polymetal Contamination on Soil Bacterial Community Structure

PubMed Central

Ranjard, L.; Lignier, L.; Chaussod, R.

2006-01-01

In this study we evaluated the short-term effects of copper, cadmium, and mercury, added singly or in combination at different doses, on soil bacterial community structure using the bacterial automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (B-ARISA) fingerprinting technique. Principal-component analysis of B-ARISA profiles allowed us to deduce the following order of impact: (Cu + Cd + Hg) >> Hg ≥ Cd > Cu. These results demonstrated that there was a cumulative effect of metal toxicity. Furthermore, the trend of modifications was consistent with the “hump-backed” relationships between biological diversity and disturbance described by Giller et al. (K. E. Giller, E. Witler, and S. P. McGrath, Soil Biol. Biochem. 30:1389-1414, 1998). PMID:16461728

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less

Analysis of phosphorus trends and evaluation of sampling designs in the Quinebaug River Basin, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd Trench, Elaine C.

2004-01-01

A time-series analysis approach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to analyze trends in total phosphorus and evaluate optimal sampling designs for future trend detection, using long-term data for two water-quality monitoring stations on the Quinebaug River in eastern Connecticut. Trend-analysis results for selected periods of record during 1971?2001 indicate that concentrations of total phosphorus in the Quinebaug River have varied over time, but have decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. Total phosphorus concentrations at both stations increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but were still substantially lower than historical levels. Drainage areas for both stations are primarily forested, but water quality at both stations is affected by point discharges from municipal wastewater-treatment facilities. Various designs with sampling frequencies ranging from 4 to 11 samples per year were compared to the trend-detection power of the monthly (12-sample) design to determine the most efficient configuration of months to sample for a given annual sampling frequency. Results from this evaluation indicate that the current (2004) 8-sample schedule for the two Quinebaug stations, with monthly sampling from May to September and bimonthly sampling for the remainder of the year, is not the most efficient 8-sample design for future detection of trends in total phosphorus. Optimal sampling schedules for the two stations differ, but in both cases, trend-detection power generally is greater among 8-sample designs that include monthly sampling in fall and winter. Sampling designs with fewer than 8 samples per year generally provide a low level of probability for detection of trends in total phosphorus. Managers may determine an acceptable level of probability for trend detection within the context of the multiple objectives of the state?s water-quality management program and the scientific understanding of the watersheds in question. Managers may identify a threshold of probability for trend detection that is high enough to justify the agency?s investment in the water-quality sampling program. Results from an analysis of optimal sampling designs can provide an important component of information for the decision-making process in which sampling schedules are periodically reviewed and revised. Results from the study described in this report and previous studies indicate that optimal sampling schedules for trend detection may differ substantially for different stations and constituents. A more comprehensive statewide evaluation of sampling schedules for key stations and constituents could provide useful information for any redesign of the schedule for water-quality monitoring in the Quinebaug River Basin and elsewhere in the state.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

Study designs, use of statistical tests, and statistical analysis software choice in 2015: Results from two Pakistani monthly Medline indexed journals.

PubMed

Shaikh, Masood Ali

2017-09-01

Assessment of research articles in terms of study designs used, statistical tests applied and the use of statistical analysis programmes help determine research activity profile and trends in the country. In this descriptive study, all original articles published by Journal of Pakistan Medical Association (JPMA) and Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (JCPSP), in the year 2015 were reviewed in terms of study designs used, application of statistical tests, and the use of statistical analysis programmes. JPMA and JCPSP published 192 and 128 original articles, respectively, in the year 2015. Results of this study indicate that cross-sectional study design, bivariate inferential statistical analysis entailing comparison between two variables/groups, and use of statistical software programme SPSS to be the most common study design, inferential statistical analysis, and statistical analysis software programmes, respectively. These results echo previously published assessment of these two journals for the year 2014.

Region Evolution eXplorer - A tool for discovering evolution trends in ontology regions.

PubMed

Christen, Victor; Hartung, Michael; Groß, Anika

2015-01-01

A large number of life science ontologies has been developed to support different application scenarios such as gene annotation or functional analysis. The continuous accumulation of new insights and knowledge affects specific portions in ontologies and thus leads to their adaptation. Therefore, it is valuable to study which ontology parts have been extensively modified or remained unchanged. Users can monitor the evolution of an ontology to improve its further development or apply the knowledge in their applications. Here we present REX (Region Evolution eXplorer) a web-based system for exploring the evolution of ontology parts (regions). REX provides an analysis platform for currently about 1,000 versions of 16 well-known life science ontologies. Interactive workflows allow an explorative analysis of changing ontology regions and can be used to study evolution trends for long-term periods. REX is a web application providing an interactive and user-friendly interface to identify (un)stable regions in large life science ontologies. It is available at http://www.izbi.de/rex.

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend despite ozone increases in eastern China. Analysis of the Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde data set for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST) and trajectory residence time reveals increases in direct ozone transport from the eastern sector during autumn, which adds to the autumnal ozone increase. We further examine the links of ozone variability at WLG to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the sunspot cycle. Our results suggest that the 2-3-, 3-7-, and 11-year periodicities are linked to the QBO, EASM index, and sunspot cycle, respectively. A multivariate regression analysis is performed to quantify the relative contributions of various factors to surface ozone concentrations at WLG. Through an observational and modelling analysis, this study demonstrates the complex relationships between surface ozone at remote locations and its dynamical and chemical influencing factors.

Asymmetric correlations in the ozone concentration dynamics of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meraz, M.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Echeverria, J. C.

2017-04-01

Mexico City is a megalopolis with severe pollution problems caused by vehicles and industrial activity. This condition imposes important risks to human health and economic activity. Based on hourly-sampled data during the last decade, in a recent work (Meraz et al., 2015) we showed that the pollutant dynamics in Mexico City exhibits long-term and scale-dependent persistence effects resulting from the combination of pollutants generation by vehicles and removal by advection mechanisms. In this work, we analyzed the dynamics of ozone, a key component reflecting the degree of atmospheric contamination, to determine if its long-term correlations are asymmetric in relation to the actual concentration trend (increasing or decreasing). The analysis is conducted with detrended fluctuation analysis. The results showed that the average ozone dynamics is uncorrelated when the concentration is increasing. In contrast, the ozone dynamics shows long-term anti-persistence effects when the concentration is decreasing.

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

PubMed

Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2017-12-01

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domino, Krzysztof

2011-01-01

The local properties of the time series of the evolution of share prices of 126 significant companies traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the period between 1991-2008 have been investigated. The analysis was applied to daily financial returns. I have used the local DFA to obtain the Hurst exponent (diffusion coefficient) while searching for negative correlations by which changes of long-term trends would be effected. A certain evidence, proving that after the signature of anti-correlation-the drop in the Hurst exponent-the change in the trend and in the return rate of an investment is probable, was pointed out. Hence after further investigation this method may be useful as a part of an investment strategy. As the Warsaw Stock Exchange is relatively smaller and younger than other significant world Stock Exchanges-and as the developing market is less efficient-the generalization for others markets needs further investigation.

Chandra monitoring, trends, and response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzbart, Brad D.; Wolk, Scott J.; Isobe, Takashi

2002-12-01

The Chandra X-ray Observatory was launched in July, 1999 and has yielded extraordinary scientific results. Behind the scenes, our Monitoring and Trends Analysis (MTA) system has proven to be a valuable resource. With three years worth of on-orbit data, we have available a vast array of both telescope diagnostic information and analysis of scientific data to access Observatory performance. As part of Chandra's Science Operations Team (SOT), the primary goal of MTA is to provide tools for effective decision making leading to the most efficient production of quality science output from the Observatory. We occupy a middle ground between flight operations, chiefly concerned with the health and safety of the spacecraft, and validation and verification, concerned with the scientific validity of the data taken and whether or not they fulfill the observer's requirements. In that role we provide and receive support from systems engineers, instrument experts, operations managers, and scientific users. MTA tools, products, and services include real-time monitoring and alert generation for the most mission critical components, long term trending of all spacecraft systems, detailed analysis of various subsystems for life expectancy or anomaly resolution, and creating and maintaining a large SQL database of relevant information. This is accomplished through the use of a wide variety of input data sources and flexible, accessible programming and analysis techniques. This paper will discuss the overall design of the system, its evolution and the resources available.

2011 Updates on the Long-term Glacier Monitoring Program in Denali National Park and Preserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrows, R. A.; Adema, G. W.; Herreid, S. J.; Arendt, A. A.; Larsen, C. F.

2011-12-01

The area of Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA) dominated by ice is vast, with glaciers covering 3,780 km^2, approximately one sixth of the park's area. They are integral components of the region's hydrologic, ecologic, and geologic systems - with changes to the glacier systems driving the dependent ecosystems. The National Park Service (NPS) conducts long term monitoring of glaciers in Denali with a variety of methods at a range of spatial and temporal scales. This includes seasonal mass balance and surface movement data collection, annual searches for surging glaciers, and decadal areal extent mapping and volume change estimates of all glaciers in the park. If a glacier surge is detected, the event is documented via photography and surface measurements, when possible. In addition, more intensive ground-based GPS surveys of termini and ice surface elevations are conducted on ten study glaciers every 5-10 years, on a rotating basis. Many of the glaciers are located in designated Wilderness, hence the use of mechanized transport is reduced as much as possible. Monitoring objectives are accomplished by park staff and with cooperative agreements with other agencies and universities. Research to understand the context of the long term data is encouraged and supported as much as possible by the NPS and has recently yielded significant results. The year 2011 marks the 20th anniversary of glacier mass balance monitoring on Kahiltna and Traleika Glaciers, located on the south and north sides of Mt. McKinley respectively. A single "index" site near the ELA of each glacier provides an index of winter, summer, and net balances each year as well as flow velocities and changes in surface elevation. Long-term net balance trends are positive from 1991-2003, and negative since 2003, including the 2009-2010 balance year. The average flow velocity at the Kahiltna index site is 200 +/- 21 m/year with a neutral to slightly negative trend, while on Traleika average velocity is 67 +/- 29 m/year with a positive trend. Monitoring glacier behavior and trends using a variety of techniques provides insight to the complexity of glacier change and increases our ability to distinguish local effects from regional and global trends. Parkwide analysis of glacier extent change since the 1950's shows a consistent trend of retreat, except for glaciers that have surged. Longitudinal surface elevation profiling and comparative photography shows relative stability in larger glaciers, but dramatic long-term mass loss on small, relatively low elevation, valley glaciers characteristic of the eastern portion of DENA. These patterns of ice loss are somewhat unique to the Alaska Range and contrast with big losses of ice mass from large glaciers that border the Gulf of Alaska.

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News

PubMed Central

Nghiem, Le T. P.; Papworth, Sarah K.; Lim, Felix K. S.; Carrasco, Luis R.

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics—approximated using Google search volume—varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public. PMID:27028399

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

PubMed

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds.

PubMed

Chambers, Lynda E; Dann, Peter; Cannell, Belinda; Woehler, Eric J

2014-05-01

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.

Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

2016-10-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values correspond to short and local events, usually with daily β values above 0.5, while the minimum threshold of daily β for catastrophic flash floods is 0.31.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

PubMed Central

Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2015-01-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m, p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m, p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990’s, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air collected in the 1999/2000 cohort. Despite some limitations, the NHANES data provides a unique, long term and direct measurement of VOC exposures and trends. PMID:25705111

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Assessing trends in organochlorine concentrations in Lake Winnipeg fish following the 1997 red river flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, A.R.; Stern, G.A.; Lockhart, W.L.; Kidd, K.A.; Salki, A.G.; Stainton, M.P.; Koczanski, K.; Rosenberg, G.B.; Savoie, D.A.; Billeck, B.N.; Wilkinson, Philip M.; Muir, D.C.G.

2003-01-01

As we move toward the virtual elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment our understanding of how short-term variability affects long-term trends of POPs in natural populations will become increasingly more important. In this study we report short-term trends in organochlorine (OC) levels in fish from Lake Winnipeg in the months and years following the 1997 100-year flood of the Red River ecosystem. Our goal was to understand the effects of an episodic event on OC levels in benthic and pelagic invertebrates and in fish. Despite elevated loading of OCs into the south basin of Lake Winnipeg during the flood there were no differences in OC levels of surface sediments or emergent mayflies. After adjusting for differences in lipid content and length among sample times, we did find significant increases in total DDT (??DDT) and total polychlorinated biphenyl (??PCB) post-flood (March 1999) in top predators including walleye and burbot. Significant increases were also observed in OC concentrations of zooplankton and yellow perch (> 2 fold in ??PCB, ??DDT, total chlordane (??CHL), total chlorobenzenes (??CBZ)) and walleye (1.4 fold ??PCB) over a 2-month period in the summer following the flood. Analysis of specific congener patterns over time suggest that the major changes in fish OC levels pre- and post-flood did not appear to be linked to transport of new compounds into the Lake during the flood, but to species shifts within the plankton community. Our results indicate that short-term variation (???2 months) in OC distributions within biota may be equal to or greater than those resulting from episodic events such as spring floods.

Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

2017-04-01

We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Approaches to Observe Anthropogenic Aerosol-Cloud Interactions.

PubMed

Quaas, Johannes

Anthropogenic aerosol particles exert an-quantitatively very uncertain-effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions via an immediate altering of cloud albedo on the one hand and via rapid adjustments by alteration of cloud processes and by changes in thermodynamic profiles on the other hand. Large variability in cloud cover and properties and the therefore low signal-to-noise ratio for aerosol-induced perturbations hamper the identification of effects in observations. Six approaches are discussed as a means to isolate the impact of anthropogenic aerosol on clouds from natural cloud variability to estimate or constrain the effective forcing. These are (i) intentional cloud modification, (ii) ship tracks, (iii) differences between the hemispheres, (iv) trace gases, (v) weekly cycles and (vi) trends. Ship track analysis is recommendable for detailed process understanding, and the analysis of weekly cycles and long-term trends is most promising to derive estimates or constraints on the effective radiative forcing.

Eigenspace-based fuzzy c-means for sensing trending topics in Twitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muliawati, T.; Murfi, H.

2017-07-01

As the information and communication technology are developed, the fulfillment of information can be obtained through social media, like Twitter. The enormous number of internet users has triggered fast and large data flow, thus making the manual analysis is difficult or even impossible. An automated methods for data analysis is needed, one of which is the topic detection and tracking. An alternative method other than latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a soft clustering approach using Fuzzy C-Means (FCM). FCM meets the assumption that a document may consist of several topics. However, FCM works well in low-dimensional data but fails in high-dimensional data. Therefore, we propose an approach where FCM works on low-dimensional data by reducing the data using singular value decomposition (SVD). Our simulations show that this approach gives better accuracies in term of topic recall than LDA for sensing trending topic in Twitter about an event.

Variability of Solar Radiation under Cloud-Free Skies in China: The Role of Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Qian, Yun; Wang, Weiguo; Leung, L. ruby; Kaiser, Dale P.

2007-01-01

In this study, we analyzed long-term surface global and diffuse solar radiation, aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), and relative humidity (RH) from China. Our analysis reveals that much of China experienced significant decreases in global solar radiation (GSR) and increases in diffuse solar radiation under cloud-free skies between the 1960s and 1980s. With RH and aerosol SSA being rather constant during that time period, we suggest that the increasing aerosol loading from emission of pollutants is responsible for the observed reduced GSR and increased diffuse radiation in cloud-free skies. Although pollutant emissions continue to increase after the 1980s, the increment of aerosol SSA since 1980s can partly explain the transition of GSR from a decreasing trend to no apparent trend around that time. Preliminary analysis is also provided on the potential role of RH in affecting the global and diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth surface.

A historical analysis of the co-evolution of gasoline octane number and spark-ignition engines

DOE PAGES

Splitter, Derek A.; Pawlowski, Alex E.; Wagner, Robert M.

2016-01-06

In our work, the authors reviewed engine, vehicle, and fuel data since 1925 to examine the historical and recent coupling of compression ratio and fuel antiknock properties (i.e., octane number) in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market. The analysis identified historical timeframes, trends, and illustrated how three factors: consumer preferences, technical capabilities, and regulatory legislation, affect personal mobility. Data showed that throughout history these three factors have a complex and time sensitive interplay. Long term trends in the data were identified where interaction and evolution between all three factors was observed. Transportation efficiency per unit power (gal/ton-mi/hp) was found to bemore » a good metric to integrate technical, societal, and regulatory effects into the evolutional pathway of personal mobility. From this framework, discussions of future evolutionary changes to personal mobility are also presented.« less

Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI) Solar Trend Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hubbell, R.; Lowder, T.; Mendelsohn, M.

This report is a summary of the finance trends for small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects (PV <1 MW), large-scale PV projects (PV greater than or equal to 1 MW), and concentrated solar power projects as reported in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI). The report presents REFTI data during the five quarterly periods from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first half of 2011. The REFTI project relies exclusively on the voluntary participation of industry stakeholders for its data; therefore, it does not offer a comprehensive view of the technologies it tracks. Despite thismore » limitation, REFTI is the only publicly available resource for renewable energy project financial terms. REFTI analysis offers usable inputs into the project economic evaluations of developers and investors, as well as the policy assessments of public utility commissions and others in the renewable energy industry.« less

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States From 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

PubMed Central

Joe, Sean

2009-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort analysis. Cohort effects were found for males and females, suggesting that younger generations of Blacks are at higher risk. If younger cohorts carry their increased suicide risk into later life, then the recent decline in Black suicide rates will be reversed. The results of the current study are only interpretable in terms of group-level characteristics and population suicide rates and not individual-level characteristics. The possible explanation and the implications for prevention and future research are discussed. PMID:19759855

Characteristics and trends on global environmental monitoring research: a bibliometric analysis based on Science Citation Index Expanded.

PubMed

Zhang, Di; Fu, Hui-Zhen; Ho, Yuh-Shan

2017-11-01

A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded from Web of Science was carried out to provide insights into research activities and trends of the environmental monitoring from 1993 to 2012. Study emphases covered publication outputs, language, categories, journals, countries/territories, institutions, words, and hot issues. The results indicated that the annual output of environmental monitoring publications increased steadily. The environmental sciences and analytical chemistry were the two most common categories. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment published the most articles. The USA and the UK ranked in the top two in terms of all five indicators. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took the leading position of the institutions in terms of publication output. The synthesized analysis by words in title, author keywords, and KeyWords Plus provided important clues for hot issues. Researchers paid more attention on water environment monitoring than other environmental factors. The contaminants including organic contaminants, heavy metal, and radiation were most common research focuses, and the organic contaminants and heavy metal of the degree of concern were gradually rising. Sensor and biosensor played an important role in the field of environmental monitoring devices. In addition to conventional device detection method, the remote sensing, GIS, and wireless sensor networks were the mainstream environmental monitoring methods. The international organization, social awareness, and the countries' positive and effective political and policies promoted the published articles.

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural, headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Strategies to mitigate agricultural runoff must consider long-term changes in climate. We investigated temperature, precipitation and runoff trends over roughly four decades of monitoring an agricultural watershed in east central Pennsylvania (1968-2012). Temperature data confirmed significant expan...

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Research Trends in Science Education from 2003 to 2007: A Content Analysis of Publications in Selected Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Min-Hsien; Wu, Ying-Tien; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2009-01-01

The present study was a follow-up to Tsai and Wen's (2005) earlier research, in which 802 articles published in the "International Journal of Science Education," "Science Education," and the "Journal of Research in Science Teaching" from 1998 to 2002 were analysed in terms of author's nationality, research type, and research topic. In the present…

Future Choices, Future Trends in Technology in Kinesiology and Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkenberg, Mel E.

2008-01-01

This lecture focuses on recent innovations in technology since the era of Dudley Allen Sargent, with an analysis of contemporary use of technology in the field of human performance, as well as a vision of where it appears we are heading in terms of technology. de la Pena argued that those who maintain sport science began in the 20th century have…

The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passig, David

2009-01-01

Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

Enterprise systems in Russia: 1992-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataev, Michael Yu; Bulysheva, Larisa A.; Emelyanenko, Alexander A.; Emelyanenko, Vladimir A.

2013-05-01

This paper introduces the enterprise systems (ES) development and implementation in Russia in the past three decades. Historic analysis shows that, in terms of time frame, the development of ACS (Automated Control Systems) in the former Soviet Union and the ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) in the West was almost parallel. In this paper, the current status and the major trend of ES in Russia is discussed.

Lake and bulk sampling chemistry, NADP, and IMPROVE air quality data analysis on the Bridger-Teton National Forest (USFS Region 4)

Treesearch

Jill Grenon; Terry Svalberg; Ted Porwoll; Mark Story

2010-01-01

Air quality monitoring data from several programs in and around the Bridger-Teton (B-T) National Forest - National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), longterm lake monitoring, long-term bulk precipitation monitoring (both snow and rain), and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) - were analyzed in this report. Trends were analyzed using...

The wavelet analysis for the assessment of microvascular function with the laser Doppler fluxmetry over the last 20 years. Looking for hidden informations.

PubMed

Martini, Romeo; Bagno, Andrea

2018-04-14

The wavelet analysis has been applied to the Laser Doppler Fluxmetry for assessing the frequency spectrum of the flowmotion to study the microvascular function waves.Although the application of wavelet analysis has allowed a detailed evaluation of the microvascular function, its use does not seem to be yet widespread over the last two decades.Aiming to improve the diffusion of this methodology, we herein present a systematic review of the literature about the application of the wavelet analysis to the laser Doppler fluxmetry signal. A computer research has been performed on PubMed and Scopus databases from January 1990 to December 2017. The used terms for the investigation have been "wavelet analysis", "wavelet transform analysis", "Morlet wavelet transform" along with the terms "laser Doppler", "laserdoppler" and/or "flowmetry" or "fluxmetry". One hundred and eighteen studies have been found. After the scrutiny, 97 studies reporting data on humans have been selected. Fifty-three studies, 54.0% (95% CI 44.2-63.6) pooled rate, have been performed on 892 healthy subjects and 44, 45,9 % (95% CI 36.3-55.7%) pooled rate have been performed on 1679 patients. No significant difference has been found between the two groups (p 0,81). On average, the number of studies published each year was 4.8 (95% CI 3.4-6.2). The trend of studies production has increased significantly from 1998 to 2017, (p 0.0006). But only the studies on patients have shown a significant increase trend along the years (p 0.0003), than the studies on healthy subjects (p 0.09).In conclusion, this review highlights that despite being a promising and interesting methodology for the study of the microcirculatory function, the wavelet analysis has remained still neglected.

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Holmgren, Amanda L.; Wilkerson, Robert L.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Kuntz, Robert C.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John R.; Huff, Mark H.

2014-01-01

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

EPA Science Inventory

The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Operational support for Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) attitude sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, M.; Garber, A.; Lambertson, M.; Raina, P.; Underwood, S.; Woodruff, C.

1994-01-01

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has several sensors that can provide observations for attitude determination: star trackers, Sun sensors (gimbaled as well as fixed), magnetometers, Earth sensors, and gyroscopes. The accuracy of these observations is important for mission success. Analysts on the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) UARS Attitude task monitor these data to evaluate the performance of the sensors taking corrective action when appropriate. Monitoring activities range from examining the data during real-time passes to constructing long-term trend plots. Increasing residuals (differences) between the observed and expected quantities is a prime indicator of sensor problems. Residual increases may be due to alignment shifts and/or degradation in sensor output. Residuals from star tracker data revealed and anomalous behavior that contributes to attitude errors. Compensating for this behavior has significantly reduced the attitude errors. This paper discusses the methods used by the FDF UARS attitude task for maintenance of the attitude sensors, including short- and long-term monitoring, trend analysis, and calibration methods, and presents the results obtained through corrective action.

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tiao, G. C.

1992-01-01

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

2017-11-01

Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2015-01-01

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-01-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-10-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-12-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Long-term trends of surface-water mercury and methylmercury concentrations downstream of historic mining within the Carson River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morway, Eric D.; Thodal, Carl E.; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.

2017-01-01

The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of −0.85% and −1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries.

Hierarchical modeling of population stability and species group attributes from survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2002-01-01

Many ecological studies require analysis of collections of estimates. For example, population change is routinely estimated for many species from surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and the species are grouped and used in comparative analyses. We developed a hierarchical model for estimation of group attributes from a collection of estimates of population trend. The model uses information from predefined groups of species to provide a context and to supplement data for individual species; summaries of group attributes are improved by statistical methods that simultaneously analyze collections of trend estimates. The model is Bayesian; trends are treated as random variables rather than fixed parameters. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to fit the model. Standard assessments of population stability cannot distinguish magnitude of trend and statistical significance of trend estimates, but the hierarchical model allows us to legitimately describe the probability that a trend is within given bounds. Thus we define population stability in terms of the probability that the magnitude of population change for a species is less than or equal to a predefined threshold. We applied the model to estimates of trend for 399 species from the BBS to estimate the proportion of species with increasing populations and to identify species with unstable populations. Analyses are presented for the collection of all species and for 12 species groups commonly used in BBS summaries. Overall, we estimated that 49% of species in the BBS have positive trends and 33 species have unstable populations. However, the proportion of species with increasing trends differs among habitat groups, with grassland birds having only 19% of species with positive trend estimates and wetland birds having 68% of species with positive trend estimates.