The role of ecological theory in microbial ecology.

PubMed

Prosser, James I; Bohannan, Brendan J M; Curtis, Tom P; Ellis, Richard J; Firestone, Mary K; Freckleton, Rob P; Green, Jessica L; Green, Laura E; Killham, Ken; Lennon, Jack J; Osborn, A Mark; Solan, Martin; van der Gast, Christopher J; Young, J Peter W

2007-05-01

Microbial ecology is currently undergoing a revolution, with repercussions spreading throughout microbiology, ecology and ecosystem science. The rapid accumulation of molecular data is uncovering vast diversity, abundant uncultivated microbial groups and novel microbial functions. This accumulation of data requires the application of theory to provide organization, structure, mechanistic insight and, ultimately, predictive power that is of practical value, but the application of theory in microbial ecology is currently very limited. Here we argue that the full potential of the ongoing revolution will not be realized if research is not directed and driven by theory, and that the generality of established ecological theory must be tested using microbial systems.

Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

2017-12-01

The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure facilities to model simulation, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting.

Is the ecological belt zonation of the Swiss Alps relevant for moth diversity and turnover?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Jan; Rüdlinger, Cecil M.; McCain, Christy M.

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are traditionally envisioned as elevational belts of homogenous vegetation, separated by intervening ecotones. Recent research has cast doubt on such predictable layering at least in animal communities. We test the link of two a priori defined ecological belt zonations to noctuid moth distributions in the Swiss Alps. Predictions, in particular, were a coincidence of proposed ecotones with increased range endpoint frequencies and with increased species turnover or species richness between equidistant elevational bands. Using >320,000 distributional records for >500 noctuid species, we found no support for these three predictions despite several contrasting analytical approaches. Concurrent with recently published vertebrate data, we conclude that simple ecological belt zonations are unrelated to the moth communities found along mountain slopes. Rather, species are distributed idiosyncratically following their specific niche requirements. Additional rigorous evidence, particularly comparing insect clades spanning a spectrum of host-plant relationships, may be required to support the relevance of the ecological belt concept in structuring mountain ecosystems beyond tree and plant communities.

Testing for local adaptation and evolutionary potential along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila: beyond laboratory estimates.

PubMed

O'Brien, Eleanor K; Higgie, Megan; Reynolds, Alan; Hoffmann, Ary A; Bridle, Jon R

2017-05-01

Predicting how species will respond to the rapid climatic changes predicted this century is an urgent task. Species distribution models (SDMs) use the current relationship between environmental variation and species' abundances to predict the effect of future environmental change on their distributions. However, two common assumptions of SDMs are likely to be violated in many cases: (i) that the relationship of environment with abundance or fitness is constant throughout a species' range and will remain so in future and (ii) that abiotic factors (e.g. temperature, humidity) determine species' distributions. We test these assumptions by relating field abundance of the rainforest fruit fly Drosophila birchii to ecological change across gradients that include its low and high altitudinal limits. We then test how such ecological variation affects the fitness of 35 D. birchii families transplanted in 591 cages to sites along two altitudinal gradients, to determine whether genetic variation in fitness responses could facilitate future adaptation to environmental change. Overall, field abundance was highest at cooler, high-altitude sites, and declined towards warmer, low-altitude sites. By contrast, cage fitness (productivity) increased towards warmer, lower-altitude sites, suggesting that biotic interactions (absent from cages) drive ecological limits at warmer margins. In addition, the relationship between environmental variation and abundance varied significantly among gradients, indicating divergence in ecological niche across the species' range. However, there was no evidence for local adaptation within gradients, despite greater productivity of high-altitude than low-altitude populations when families were reared under laboratory conditions. Families also responded similarly to transplantation along gradients, providing no evidence for fitness trade-offs that would favour local adaptation. These findings highlight the importance of (i) measuring genetic variation in key traits under ecologically relevant conditions, and (ii) considering the effect of biotic interactions when predicting species' responses to environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting nutrient excretion of aquatic animals with metabolic ecology and ecological stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

PubMed

Vanni, Michael J; McIntyre, Peter B

2016-12-01

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES) are both prominent frameworks for understanding energy and nutrient budgets of organisms. We tested their separate and joint power to predict nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion rates of ectothermic aquatic invertebrate and vertebrate animals (10,534 observations worldwide). MTE variables (body size, temperature) performed better than ES variables (trophic guild, vertebrate classification, body N:P) in predicting excretion rates, but the best models included variables from both frameworks. Size scaling coefficients were significantly lower than predicted by MTE (<0.75), were lower for P than N, and varied greatly among species. Contrary to expectations under ES, vertebrates excreted both N and P at higher rates than invertebrates despite having more nutrient-rich bodies, and primary consumers excreted as much nutrients as carnivores despite having nutrient-poor diets. Accounting for body N:P hardly improved upon predictions from treating vertebrate classification categorically. We conclude that basic data on body size, water temperature, trophic guild, and vertebrate classification are sufficient to make general estimates of nutrient excretion rates for any animal taxon or aquatic ecosystem. Nonetheless, dramatic interspecific variation in size-scaling coefficients and counter-intuitive patterns with respect to diet and body composition underscore the need for field data on consumption and egestion rates. Together, MTE and ES provide a powerful conceptual basis for interpreting and predicting nutrient recycling rates of aquatic animals worldwide. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Activity-specific ecological niche models for planning reintroductions of California condors (Gymnogyps californianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Elia, Jesse; Haig, Susan M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Young, Richard

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models can be a useful tool to identify candidate reintroduction sites for endangered species but have been infrequently used for this purpose. In this paper, we (1) develop activity-specific ecological niche models (nesting, roosting, and feeding) for the critically endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) to aid in reintroduction planning in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, (2) test the accuracy of these models using empirical data withheld from model development, and (3) integrate model results with information on condor movement ecology and biology to produce predictive maps of reintroduction site suitability. Our approach, which disentangles niche models into activity-specific components, has applications for other species where it is routinely assumed (often incorrectly) that individuals fulfill all requirements for life within a single environmental space. Ecological niche models conformed to our understanding of California condor ecology, had good predictive performance when tested with data withheld from model development, and aided in the identification of several candidate reintroduction areas outside of the current distribution of the species. Our results suggest there are large unoccupied regions of the California condor’s historical range that have retained ecological features similar to currently occupied habitats, and thus could be considered for future reintroduction efforts. Combining our activity-specific ENMs with ground reconnaissance and information on other threat factors that could not be directly incorporated into empirical ENMs will ultimately improve our ability to select successful reintroduction sites for the California condor.

Size-Energy Relationships in Ecological Communities

PubMed Central

Sewall, Brent J.; Freestone, Amy L.; Hawes, Joseph E.; Andriamanarina, Ernest

2013-01-01

Hypotheses that relate body size to energy use are of particular interest in community ecology and macroecology because of their potential to facilitate quantitative predictions about species interactions and to clarify complex ecological patterns. One prominent size-energy hypothesis, the energetic equivalence hypothesis, proposes that energy use from shared, limiting resources by populations or size classes of foragers will be independent of body size. Alternative hypotheses propose that energy use will increase with body size, decrease with body size, or peak at an intermediate body size. Despite extensive study, however, size-energy hypotheses remain controversial, due to a lack of directly-measured data on energy use, a tendency to confound distinct scaling relationships, and insufficient attention to the ecological contexts in which predicted relationships are likely to occur. Our goal, therefore, was to directly evaluate size-energy hypotheses while clarifying how results would differ with alternate methods and assumptions. We comprehensively tested size-energy hypotheses in a vertebrate frugivore guild in a tropical forest in Madagascar. Our test of size-energy hypotheses, which is the first to examine energy intake directly, was consistent with the energetic equivalence hypothesis. This finding corresponds with predictions of metabolic theory and models of energy distribution in ecological communities, which imply that body size does not confer an advantage in competition for energy among populations or size classes of foragers. This result was robust to different assumptions about energy regulation. Our results from direct energy measurement, however, contrasted with those obtained with conventional methods of indirect inference from size-density relationships, suggesting that size-density relationships do not provide an appropriate proxy for size-energy relationships as has commonly been assumed. Our research also provides insights into mechanisms underlying local size-energy relationships and has important implications for predicting species interactions and for understanding the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. PMID:23950873

System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

PubMed

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

2015-09-15

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A 3R compliant testing strategy to predict chronic fish toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

To ensure an ecologically relevant basis for environmental quality standards, whole-organism vertebrate tests are considered most suitable. Currently, the fish early life-stage (FELS) test (OECD 210), which involves an exposure up to one - two months, is used to estimate chronic ...

Revisiting the Holy Grail: using plant functional traits to understand ecological processes.

PubMed

Funk, Jennifer L; Larson, Julie E; Ames, Gregory M; Butterfield, Bradley J; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Firn, Jennifer; Laughlin, Daniel C; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E; Williams, Laura; Wright, Justin

2017-05-01

One of ecology's grand challenges is developing general rules to explain and predict highly complex systems. Understanding and predicting ecological processes from species' traits has been considered a 'Holy Grail' in ecology. Plant functional traits are increasingly being used to develop mechanistic models that can predict how ecological communities will respond to abiotic and biotic perturbations and how species will affect ecosystem function and services in a rapidly changing world; however, significant challenges remain. In this review, we highlight recent work and outstanding questions in three areas: (i) selecting relevant traits; (ii) describing intraspecific trait variation and incorporating this variation into models; and (iii) scaling trait data to community- and ecosystem-level processes. Over the past decade, there have been significant advances in the characterization of plant strategies based on traits and trait relationships, and the integration of traits into multivariate indices and models of community and ecosystem function. However, the utility of trait-based approaches in ecology will benefit from efforts that demonstrate how these traits and indices influence organismal, community, and ecosystem processes across vegetation types, which may be achieved through meta-analysis and enhancement of trait databases. Additionally, intraspecific trait variation and species interactions need to be incorporated into predictive models using tools such as Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Finally, existing models linking traits to community and ecosystem processes need to be empirically tested for their applicability to be realized. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Link, W.A.; Hines, J.E.

2004-01-01

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km2. Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km2) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

[Ecology suitability study of Ephedra intermedia].

PubMed

Ma, Xiao-Hui; Lu, You-Yuan; Huang, De-Dong; Zhu, Tian-Tian; Lv, Pei-Lin; Jin, Ling

2017-06-01

The study aims at predicting ecological suitability of Ephedra intermedia in China by using maximum entropy Maxent model combined with GIS, and finding the main ecological factors affecting the distribution of E. intermedia suitability in appropriate growth area. Thirty-eight collected samples of E. intermedia and E. intermedia and 116 distribution information from CVH information using ArcGIS technology were analyzed. MaxEnt model was applied to forecast the E. intermedia in our country's ecology. E. intermedia MaxEnt ROC curve model training data and testing data sets the AUC value was 0.986 and 0.958, respectively, which were greater than 0.9, tending to be 1.The calculated E. intermedia habitat suitability by the model showed a high accuracy and credibility, which indicated that MaxEnt model could well predict the potential distribution area of E. intermedia in China. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Biology and Ecology of Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Middle East, with Special Emphasis on Phlebotomus Papatasi and Phlebotomus Alexandri

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-06

64 Predicted distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in the Middle East 85 Jackknife test of training gain for...P. papatasi 86 Predicted distribution of Phlebotomus alexandri in the Middle East 87 Jackknife test of...epithelial cells by approximately 72 hours post ingestion (Sacks and Kamhawi 2001, Bates 2007). Approximately one week after ingestion, the parasites

A classification of ecological boundaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strayer, D.L.; Power, M.E.; Fagan, W.F.; Pickett, S.T.A.; Belnap, J.

2003-01-01

Ecologists use the term boundary to refer to a wide range of real and conceptual structures. Because imprecise terminology may impede the search for general patterns and theories about ecological boundaries, we present a classification of the attributes of ecological boundaries to aid in communication and theory development. Ecological boundaries may differ in their origin and maintenance, their spatial structure, their function, and their temporal dynamics. A classification system based on these attributes should help ecologists determine whether boundaries are truly comparable. This system can be applied when comparing empirical studies, comparing theories, and testing theoretical predictions against empirical results.

Ecological Effects in Cross-Cultural Differences Between U.S. and Japanese Color Preferences.

PubMed

Yokosawa, Kazuhiko; Schloss, Karen B; Asano, Michiko; Palmer, Stephen E

2016-09-01

We investigated cultural differences between U.S. and Japanese color preferences and the ecological factors that might influence them. Japanese and U.S. color preferences have both similarities (e.g., peaks around blue, troughs around dark-yellow, and preferences for saturated colors) and differences (Japanese participants like darker colors less than U.S. participants do). Complex gender differences were also evident that did not conform to previously reported effects. Palmer and Schloss's (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure was used to test the Ecological Valence Theory's (EVT's) prediction that within-culture WAVE-preference correlations should be higher than between-culture WAVE-preference correlations. The results supported several, but not all, predictions. In the second experiment, we tested color preferences of Japanese-U.S. multicultural participants who could read and speak both Japanese and English. Multicultural color preferences were intermediate between U.S. and Japanese preferences, consistent with the hypothesis that culturally specific personal experiences during one's lifetime influence color preferences. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions.

PubMed

Ikeda, Dana H; Max, Tamara L; Allan, Gerard J; Lau, Matthew K; Shuster, Stephen M; Whitham, Thomas G

2017-01-01

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Damschen, Ellen I; Brudvig, Lars A; Haddad, Nick M; Levey, Douglas J; Orrock, John L; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2008-12-09

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities, and external factors. We modified this framework to generate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersed species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time, whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.

Mass and energy budgets of animals: Behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W.P.

1991-11-01

The two major aims of our lab are as follows: First, to develop and field-test general mechanistic models that predict animal life history characteristics as influenced by climate and the physical, physiological behavioral characteristics of species. This involves: understanding how animal time and energy budgets are affected by climate and animal properties; predicting growth and reproductive potential from time and energy budgets; predicting mortality based on climate and time and energy budgets; and linking these individual based models to population dynamics. Second to conduct empirical studies of animal physiological ecology, particularly the effects of temperature on time and energy budgets.more » The physiological ecology of individual animals is the key link between the physical environment and population-level phenomena. We address the macroclimate to microclimate linkage on a broad spatial scale; address the links between individuals and population dynamics for lizard species; test the endotherm energetics and behavior model using beaver; address the spatial variation in climate and its effects on individual energetics, growth and reproduction; and address patchiness in the environment and constraints they may impose on individual energetics, growth and reproduction. These projects are described individually in the following section. 24 refs., 9 figs.« less

RESPONSE OF PLANT COMMUNITIES TO MULTIPLE STRESSES

EPA Science Inventory

Single species tests lack the ecological realism necessary to predict the effects of toxicants in natural environments. Field tests are expensive and the results can be difficult to interpret. To address these conflicting problems, open top chambers were modified to contain pla...

Latino Adolescents' Academic Motivation: The Role of Siblings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alfaro, Edna C.; Umana-Taylor, Adriana J.

2010-01-01

Guided by an ecological perspective, two competing models were tested to examine how sibling relationship quality directly predicted or interacted with academic support from siblings to predict Latino adolescents' academic motivation (N = 258). Gender differences were examined utilizing multiple group analysis in structural equation modeling.…

Relationship of Temporal Lobe Volumes to Neuropsychological Test Performance in Healthy Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Carolyn T.; Mahone, E. Mark; Matson, Melissa A.; Kates, Wendy R.; Hay, Trisha; Horska, Alena

2008-01-01

Ecological validity of neuropsychological assessment includes the ability of tests to predict real-world functioning and/or covary with brain structures. Studies have examined the relationship between adaptive skills and test performance, with less focus on the association between regional brain volumes and neurobehavioral function in healthy…

Chaos and Forecasting - Proceedings of the Royal Society Discussion Meeting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Howell

1995-04-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Preface * Orthogonal Projection, Embedding Dimension and Sample Size in Chaotic Time Series from a Statistical Perspective * A Theory of Correlation Dimension for Stationary Time Series * On Prediction and Chaos in Stochastic Systems * Locally Optimized Prediction of Nonlinear Systems: Stochastic and Deterministic * A Poisson Distribution for the BDS Test Statistic for Independence in a Time Series * Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance * Paradigm Change in Prediction * Predicting Nonuniform Chaotic Attractors in an Enzyme Reaction * Chaos in Geophysical Fluids * Chaotic Modulation of the Solar Cycle * Fractal Nature in Earthquake Phenomena and its Simple Models * Singular Vectors and the Predictability of Weather and Climate * Prediction as a Criterion for Classifying Natural Time Series * Measuring and Characterising Spatial Patterns, Dynamics and Chaos in Spatially-Extended Dynamical Systems and Ecologies * Non-Linear Forecasting and Chaos in Ecology and Epidemiology: Measles as a Case Study

ESTIMATING ACUTE AND CRONIC TOXICITY OF CHEMICALS FOR ENDANGERED FISHES

EPA Science Inventory

Predictive toxicological models, including estimates of uncertainty, are necessary to perform probability-based ecological risk assessments. This is particularly true for the protection of endangered species that are not prudent to test, other species that have not been tested o...

Social and genetic structure of paper wasp cofoundress associations: tests of reproductive skew models.

PubMed

Field, J; Solís, C R; Queller, D C; Strassmann, J E

1998-06-01

Recent models postulate that the members of a social group assess their ecological and social environments and agree a "social contract" of reproductive partitioning (skew). We tested social contracts theory by using DNA microsatellites to measure skew in 24 cofoundress associations of paper wasps, Polistes bellicosus. In contrast to theoretical predictions, there was little variation in cofoundress relatedness, and relatedness either did not predict skew or was negatively correlated with it; the dominant/subordinate size ratio, assumed to reflect relative fighting ability, did not predict skew; and high skew was associated with decreased aggression by the rank 2 subordinate toward the dominant. High skew was associated with increased group size. A difficulty with measuring skew in real systems is the frequent changes in group composition that commonly occur in social animals. In P. bellicosus, 61% of egg layers and an unknown number of non-egg layers were absent by the time nests were collected. The social contracts models provide an attractive general framework linking genetics, ecology, and behavior, but there have been few direct tests of their predictions. We question assumptions underlying the models and suggest directions for future research.

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

Rates of ecological divergence and body size evolution are correlated with species diversification in scaly tree ferns

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Barrera-Redondo, Josué; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2016-01-01

Variation in species richness across regions and between different groups of organisms is a major feature of evolution. Several factors have been proposed to explain these differences, including heterogeneity in the rates of species diversification and the age of clades. It has been frequently assumed that rapid rates of diversification are coupled to high rates of ecological and morphological evolution, leading to a prediction that remains poorly explored for most species: the positive association between ecological niche divergence, morphological evolution and species diversification. We combined a time-calibrated phylogeny with distribution, ecological and body size data for scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) to test whether rates of species diversification are predicted by the rates at which clades have evolved distinct ecological niches and body sizes. We found that rates of species diversification are positively correlated with rates of ecological and morphological evolution, with rapidly diversifying clades also showing rapidly evolving ecological niches and body sizes. Our results show that rapid diversification of scaly tree ferns is associated with the evolution of species with comparable morphologies that diversified into similar, yet distinct, environments. This suggests parallel evolutionary pathways opening in different tropical regions whenever ecological and geographical opportunities arise. Accordingly, rates of ecological niche and body size evolution are relevant to explain the current patterns of species richness in this ‘ancient’ fern lineage across the tropics. PMID:27412279

Rates of ecological divergence and body size evolution are correlated with species diversification in scaly tree ferns.

PubMed

Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Barrera-Redondo, Josué; Eguiarte, Luis E

2016-07-13

Variation in species richness across regions and between different groups of organisms is a major feature of evolution. Several factors have been proposed to explain these differences, including heterogeneity in the rates of species diversification and the age of clades. It has been frequently assumed that rapid rates of diversification are coupled to high rates of ecological and morphological evolution, leading to a prediction that remains poorly explored for most species: the positive association between ecological niche divergence, morphological evolution and species diversification. We combined a time-calibrated phylogeny with distribution, ecological and body size data for scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) to test whether rates of species diversification are predicted by the rates at which clades have evolved distinct ecological niches and body sizes. We found that rates of species diversification are positively correlated with rates of ecological and morphological evolution, with rapidly diversifying clades also showing rapidly evolving ecological niches and body sizes. Our results show that rapid diversification of scaly tree ferns is associated with the evolution of species with comparable morphologies that diversified into similar, yet distinct, environments. This suggests parallel evolutionary pathways opening in different tropical regions whenever ecological and geographical opportunities arise. Accordingly, rates of ecological niche and body size evolution are relevant to explain the current patterns of species richness in this 'ancient' fern lineage across the tropics. © 2016 The Author(s).

Predicting acute contact toxicity of pesticides in honeybees (Apis mellifera) through a k-nearest neighbor model.

PubMed

Como, F; Carnesecchi, E; Volani, S; Dorne, J L; Richardson, J; Bassan, A; Pavan, M; Benfenati, E

2017-01-01

Ecological risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs) requires an understanding of both the toxicity and the extent of exposure to assess risks for a range of taxa of ecological importance including target and non-target species. Non-target species such as honey bees (Apis mellifera), solitary bees and bumble bees are of utmost importance because of their vital ecological services as pollinators of wild plants and crops. To improve risk assessment of PPPs in bee species, computational models predicting the acute and chronic toxicity of a range of PPPs and contaminants can play a major role in providing structural and physico-chemical properties for the prioritisation of compounds of concern and future risk assessments. Over the last three decades, scientific advisory bodies and the research community have developed toxicological databases and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models that are proving invaluable to predict toxicity using historical data and reduce animal testing. This paper describes the development and validation of a k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model using in-house software for the prediction of acute contact toxicity of pesticides on honey bees. Acute contact toxicity data were collected from different sources for 256 pesticides, which were divided into training and test sets. The k-NN models were validated with good prediction, with an accuracy of 70% for all compounds and of 65% for highly toxic compounds, suggesting that they might reliably predict the toxicity of structurally diverse pesticides and could be used to screen and prioritise new pesticides. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

PubMed

Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

2017-06-01

Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalize community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water plant functional group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 687 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed that models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68-0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

First insights into the social organisation of Goodman's mouse lemur (Microcebus lehilahytsara)--testing predictions from socio-ecological hypotheses in the Masoala hall of Zurich Zoo.

PubMed

Jürges, Vivian; Kitzler, Johanne; Zingg, Robert; Radespiel, Ute

2013-01-01

Following current socio-ecological hypotheses, the social organisation of a species is mainly determined by resource quality and distribution. In the case of Microcebus spp., a taxon-specific socio-ecological model was formulated earlier to explain their variable social organisation. The aim of this study was to test predictions from this model in Goodman's mouse lemur based on a data set from animals living in the semi-free colony of Zurich Zoo. During a 2-month study, we observed 5 females and 5 males using radiotelemetry. We collected data on space use and social behaviour, on sleeping sites and on sleeping group composition. Predictions were only partly confirmed. As expected, Goodman's mouse lemurs were solitary foragers with an increased level of sociality due to crowding effects at the feeding stations. In contrast to the prediction, females and males formed unisexual sleeping groups, which were stable in females and of a fission-fusion type in males. Whereas the formation of sleeping groups by both sexes may be triggered by thermoregulatory benefits, the formation of unisexual sleeping groups may result from divergent interests of the sexes. We conclude that the existing model for the evolution of mouse lemur social organisation needs to be refined. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Distribution drivers and physiological responses in geothermal bryophyte communities.

PubMed

García, Estefanía Llaneza; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Graves, Camille; Shortlidge, Erin E; Eppley, Sarah M

2016-04-01

Our ability to explain community structure rests on our ability to define the importance of ecological niches, including realized ecological niches, in shaping communities, but few studies of plant distributions have combined predictive models with physiological measures. Using field surveys and statistical modeling, we predicted distribution drivers in geothermal bryophyte (moss) communities of Lassen Volcanic National Park (California, USA). In the laboratory, we used drying and rewetting experiments to test whether the strong species-specific effects of relative humidity on distributions predicted by the models were correlated with physiological characters. We found that the three most common bryophytes in geothermal communities were significantly affected by three distinct distribution drivers: temperature, light, and relative humidity. Aulacomnium palustre, whose distribution is significantly affected by relative humidity according to our model, and which occurs in high-humidity sites, showed extreme signs of stress after drying and never recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Campylopus introflexus, whose distribution is not affected by humidity according to our model, was able to maintain optimal values of PSII efficiency for 48 hr at 50% water loss and recovered optimal values of PSII efficiency after rewetting. Our results suggest that species-specific environmental stressors tightly constrain the ecological niches of geothermal bryophytes. Tests of tolerance to drying in two bryophyte species corresponded with model predictions of the comparative importance of relative humidity as distribution drivers for these species. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Predicting ecological effects of pollutants: A role for marine mesocosms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, T.J.

1994-12-31

The major uncertainty in predicting the ecological effects of a pollutant is the relationship between dose and the ecological response. Mesocosms may be used to simulate population-level biological processes and to estimate the nature and shape of dose-related responses to pollutants, for use in predictive evaluations of pollutant impacts. To ensure that responses observed in mesocosm tests are representative it is necessary to confirm that the simulated processes operate at rates similar to those found in the field. Pilot experiments were conducted in small marine mesocosms simulating major processes in two local habitat types: unvegetated sand and sand colonized bymore » the brown macroalga Sargassum. The results showed that for a range of variates (such as the % of egg-bearing harpacticoid copepods, or the chlorophyll a concentration in surface sediments) the mean values for measurements in the tanks over a 9 week period did not consistently converge or diverge from those in the field. Also, for a number of the variates, a modelled decrease of more than about 60% in the mean could be detected with greater than 80% statistical power. This indicates that the effects of a pollutant could be detected with acceptable power. Use of a combination of such variates based on different functional or taxonomic groups for pollutant effects testing could greatly decrease uncertainty about the predicted effects of pollutants discharged to these habitats.« less

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach-A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-06-15

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study-simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan.

Using a Sequence Homology-Based Predictive Strategy to Address Current Demands for Focused Toxicity Testing in Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The lack of resources available for comprehensive toxicity testing, international interest in limiting the quantity of animals used in testing, and a mounting list of anthropogenic chemicals produced world-wide have led to the exploration of innovative means for identifying chemi...

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

The effects of family, school, and classroom ecologies on changes in children's social competence and emotional and behavioral problems in first grade.

PubMed

Hoglund, Wendy L; Leadbeater, Bonnie J

2004-07-01

This study tested the independent and interactive influences of classroom (concentrations of peer prosocial behaviors and victimization), family (household moves, mothers' education), and school (proportion of students receiving income assistance) ecologies on changes in children's social competence (e.g., interpersonal skills, leadership abilities), emotional problems (e.g., anxious, withdrawn behaviors), and behavioral problems (e.g., disruptiveness, aggressiveness) in first grade. Higher classroom concentrations of prosocial behaviors and victimization predicted increases in social competence, and greater school disadvantage predicted decreases. Multiple household moves and greater school disadvantage predicted increases in behavioral problems. Multiple household moves and low levels of mothers' education predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with few prosocial behaviors. Greater school disadvantage predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with low prosocial behaviors and high victimization. Policy implications of these findings are considered. Copyright 2004 APA, all rights reserved

Order of Administration of Math and Verbal Tests: An Ecological Intervention to Reduce Stereotype Threat on Girls' Math Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smeding, Annique; Dumas, Florence; Loose, Florence; Régner, Isabelle

2013-01-01

In 2 field experiments, we relied on the very features of real testing situations--where both math and verbal tests are administered--to examine whether order of test administration can, by itself, create vs. alleviate stereotype threat (ST) effects on girls' math performance. We predicted that taking the math test before the verbal test would be…

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-01-01

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study—simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan. PMID:28617348

Independent evolution of the sexes promotes amphibian diversification

PubMed Central

De Lisle, Stephen P.; Rowe, Locke

2015-01-01

Classic ecological theory predicts that the evolution of sexual dimorphism constrains diversification by limiting morphospace available for speciation. Alternatively, sexual selection may lead to the evolution of reproductive isolation and increased diversification. We test contrasting predictions of these hypotheses by examining the relationship between sexual dimorphism and diversification in amphibians. Our analysis shows that the evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is associated with increased diversification and speciation, contrary to the ecological theory. Further, this result is unlikely to be explained by traditional sexual selection models because variation in amphibian SSD is unlikely to be driven entirely by sexual selection. We suggest that relaxing a central assumption of classic ecological models—that the sexes share a common adaptive landscape—leads to the alternative hypothesis that independent evolution of the sexes may promote diversification. Once the constraints of sexual conflict are relaxed, the sexes can explore morphospace that would otherwise be inaccessible. Consistent with this novel hypothesis, the evolution of SSD in amphibians is associated with reduced current extinction threat status, and an historical reduction in extinction rate. Our work reconciles conflicting predictions from ecological and evolutionary theory and illustrates that the ability of the sexes to evolve independently is associated with a spectacular vertebrate radiation. PMID:25694616

The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes

DOE PAGES

Damschen, Ellen I.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Haddad, Nick M.; ...

2008-12-05

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities,and external factors. We modified this framework togenerate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersedmore » species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time,whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.« less

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Timothy H.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Laney, Christine M.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire K.; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C.; White, Ethan P.

2018-01-01

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges.

PubMed

Dietze, Michael C; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Betancourt, Julio L; Hooten, Mevin B; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Keitt, Timothy H; Kenney, Melissa A; Laney, Christine M; Larsen, Laurel G; Loescher, Henry W; Lunch, Claire K; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Randerson, James T; Read, Emily K; Tredennick, Andrew T; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C; White, Ethan P

2018-02-13

Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals

DOE PAGES

Vanni, Michael J.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Allen, Dennis; ...

2017-03-06

Though their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems, animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES). They also represent an important set of functional traits that may reflect both environmental and phylogenetic influences. Over the past two decades, studies of animal-mediated nutrient cycling have increased dramatically, especially in aquatic ecosystems. Here we present a global compilation of aquatic animal nutrient excretion rates. The dataset includes 10,534 observations from freshwater andmore » marine animals of N and/or P excretion rates. Furthermore, these observations represent 491 species, including most aquatic phyla. Coverage varies greatly among phyla and other taxonomic levels. The dataset includes information on animal body size, ambient temperature, taxonomic affiliations, and animal body N:P. We used this data set to test predictions of MTE and ES, as described in Vanni and McIntyre (2016; Ecology DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1582).« less

A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vanni, Michael J.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Allen, Dennis

Though their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems, animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES). They also represent an important set of functional traits that may reflect both environmental and phylogenetic influences. Over the past two decades, studies of animal-mediated nutrient cycling have increased dramatically, especially in aquatic ecosystems. Here we present a global compilation of aquatic animal nutrient excretion rates. The dataset includes 10,534 observations from freshwater andmore » marine animals of N and/or P excretion rates. Furthermore, these observations represent 491 species, including most aquatic phyla. Coverage varies greatly among phyla and other taxonomic levels. The dataset includes information on animal body size, ambient temperature, taxonomic affiliations, and animal body N:P. We used this data set to test predictions of MTE and ES, as described in Vanni and McIntyre (2016; Ecology DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1582).« less

Associations among hydrologic classifications and fish traits to support environmental flow standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A; Bevelhimer, Mark S; Frimpong, Dr. Emmanuel A,

2014-01-01

Classification systems are valuable to ecological management in that they organize information into consolidated units thereby providing efficient means to achieve conservation objectives. Of the many ways classifications benefit management, hypothesis generation has been discussed as the most important. However, in order to provide templates for developing and testing ecologically relevant hypotheses, classifications created using environmental variables must be linked to ecological patterns. Herein, we develop associations between a recent US hydrologic classification and fish traits in order to form a template for generating flow ecology hypotheses and supporting environmental flow standard development. Tradeoffs in adaptive strategies for fish weremore » observed across a spectrum of stable, perennial flow to unstable intermittent flow. In accordance with theory, periodic strategists were associated with stable, predictable flow, whereas opportunistic strategists were more affiliated with intermittent, variable flows. We developed linkages between the uniqueness of hydrologic character and ecological distinction among classes, which may translate into predictions between losses in hydrologic uniqueness and ecological community response. Comparisons of classification strength between hydrologic classifications and other frameworks suggested that spatially contiguous classifications with higher regionalization will tend to explain more variation in ecological patterns. Despite explaining less ecological variation than other frameworks, we contend that hydrologic classifications are still useful because they provide a conceptual linkage between hydrologic variation and ecological communities to support flow ecology relationships. Mechanistic associations among fish traits and hydrologic classes support the presumption that environmental flow standards should be developed uniquely for stream classes and ecological communities, therein.« less

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change.

PubMed

Garrard, Georgia E; McCarthy, Michael A; Vesk, Peter A; Radford, James Q; Bennett, Andrew F

2012-01-01

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature. 2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable. 3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation. 4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodland-dependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation. 5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon. 6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Mapping environmental dimensions of dengue fever transmission risk in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

PubMed

Arboleda, Sair; Jaramillo-O, Nicolas; Peterson, A Townsend

2009-12-01

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.

Mapping Environmental Dimensions of Dengue Fever Transmission Risk in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia

PubMed Central

Arboleda, Sair; Nicolas, Jaramillo-O.; Peterson, A. Townsend

2009-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities. PMID:20049244

Evaluating the Zebrafish Embryo Toxicity Test for Pesticide Hazard Screening

EPA Science Inventory

Given the numerous chemicals used in society, it is critical to develop tools for accurate and efficient evaluation of potential risks to human and ecological receptors. Fish embryo acute toxicity tests are 1 tool that has been shown to be highly predictive of standard, more reso...

Ecological interactions and the Netflix problem.

PubMed

Desjardins-Proulx, Philippe; Laigle, Idaline; Poisot, Timothée; Gravel, Dominique

2017-01-01

Species interactions are a key component of ecosystems but we generally have an incomplete picture of who-eats-who in a given community. Different techniques have been devised to predict species interactions using theoretical models or abundances. Here, we explore the K nearest neighbour approach, with a special emphasis on recommendation, along with a supervised machine learning technique. Recommenders are algorithms developed for companies like Netflix to predict whether a customer will like a product given the preferences of similar customers. These machine learning techniques are well-suited to study binary ecological interactions since they focus on positive-only data. By removing a prey from a predator, we find that recommenders can guess the missing prey around 50% of the times on the first try, with up to 881 possibilities. Traits do not improve significantly the results for the K nearest neighbour, although a simple test with a supervised learning approach (random forests) show we can predict interactions with high accuracy using only three traits per species. This result shows that binary interactions can be predicted without regard to the ecological community given only three variables: body mass and two variables for the species' phylogeny. These techniques are complementary, as recommenders can predict interactions in the absence of traits, using only information about other species' interactions, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests base their predictions on traits only but do not exploit other species' interactions. Further work should focus on developing custom similarity measures specialized for ecology to improve the KNN algorithms and using richer data to capture indirect relationships between species.

Ecological interactions and the Netflix problem

PubMed Central

Laigle, Idaline; Poisot, Timothée; Gravel, Dominique

2017-01-01

Species interactions are a key component of ecosystems but we generally have an incomplete picture of who-eats-who in a given community. Different techniques have been devised to predict species interactions using theoretical models or abundances. Here, we explore the K nearest neighbour approach, with a special emphasis on recommendation, along with a supervised machine learning technique. Recommenders are algorithms developed for companies like Netflix to predict whether a customer will like a product given the preferences of similar customers. These machine learning techniques are well-suited to study binary ecological interactions since they focus on positive-only data. By removing a prey from a predator, we find that recommenders can guess the missing prey around 50% of the times on the first try, with up to 881 possibilities. Traits do not improve significantly the results for the K nearest neighbour, although a simple test with a supervised learning approach (random forests) show we can predict interactions with high accuracy using only three traits per species. This result shows that binary interactions can be predicted without regard to the ecological community given only three variables: body mass and two variables for the species’ phylogeny. These techniques are complementary, as recommenders can predict interactions in the absence of traits, using only information about other species’ interactions, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests base their predictions on traits only but do not exploit other species’ interactions. Further work should focus on developing custom similarity measures specialized for ecology to improve the KNN algorithms and using richer data to capture indirect relationships between species. PMID:28828250

Ecology and geography of avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) transmission in the Middle East and northeastern Africa

PubMed Central

Williams, Richard AJ; Peterson, A Townsend

2009-01-01

Background The emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 ("HPAI-H5N1") has spread broadly in the past decade, and is now the focus of considerable concern. We tested the hypothesis that spatial distributions of HPAI-H5N1 cases are related consistently and predictably to coarse-scale environmental features in the Middle East and northeastern Africa. We used ecological niche models to relate virus occurrences to 8 km resolution digital data layers summarizing parameters of monthly surface reflectance and landform. Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas. Results In almost all tests, HPAI-H5N1 cases were indeed occurring under predictable sets of environmental conditions, generally predicted absent from areas with low NDVI values and minimal seasonal variation, and present in areas with a broad range of and appreciable seasonal variation in NDVI values. Although we documented significant predictive ability of our models, even between our study region and West Africa, case occurrences in the Arabian Peninsula appear to follow a distinct environmental regime. Conclusion Overall, we documented a variable environmental "fingerprint" for areas suitable for HPAI-H5N1 transmission. PMID:19619336

Beyond the mean: the role of variability in predicting ecological effects of stream temperature on salmon

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Abby Tillotson; Donald A. Larson; Aimee H. Fullerton; Keith P. Denton; Brian R. Beckman

2012-01-01

Alterations in variance of riverine thermal regimes have been observed and are predicted with climate change and human development. We tested whether changes in daily or seasonal thermal variability, aside from changes in mean temperature, could have biological consequences by exposing Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) eggs to eight...

The use of ecological momentary assessment to test appraisal theories of emotion.

PubMed

Tong, Eddie M W; Bishop, George D; Enkelmann, Hwee Chong; Why, Yong Peng; Diong, Siew Maan; Khader, Majeed; Ang, Jansen

2005-12-01

Although appraisal theories have received strong empirical support, there are methodological concerns about the research, including biased recall, heuristic responding, ethical issues, and weak and unrealistic induction of emotions in laboratories. To provide a more ecologically valid test of appraisal theories, the authors used ecological momentary assessment, in which the emotions and appraisals of Singaporean police officers were measured online over the course of an ordinary workday. The research focused on happiness. Support was obtained for predictions, demonstrating the generalizability of appraisal theories to a nonlaboratory setting and circumventing the shortcomings of previously used methodologies. Also, evidence was obtained that happiness was reported primarily in association with a specific combination of 3 relevant appraisals: high pleasantness, high perceived control, and low moral violation. Copyright (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K. J.; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M. J.; Benton, Tim G.

2013-01-01

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. PMID:24089332

Predictive systems ecology.

PubMed

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Novel Covariance-Based Neutrality Test of Time-Series Data Reveals Asymmetries in Ecological and Economic Systems

PubMed Central

Burby, Joshua W.; Lacker, Daniel

2016-01-01

Systems as diverse as the interacting species in a community, alleles at a genetic locus, and companies in a market are characterized by competition (over resources, space, capital, etc) and adaptation. Neutral theory, built around the hypothesis that individual performance is independent of group membership, has found utility across the disciplines of ecology, population genetics, and economics, both because of the success of the neutral hypothesis in predicting system properties and because deviations from these predictions provide information about the underlying dynamics. However, most tests of neutrality are weak, based on static system properties such as species-abundance distributions or the number of singletons in a sample. Time-series data provide a window onto a system’s dynamics, and should furnish tests of the neutral hypothesis that are more powerful to detect deviations from neutrality and more informative about to the type of competitive asymmetry that drives the deviation. Here, we present a neutrality test for time-series data. We apply this test to several microbial time-series and financial time-series and find that most of these systems are not neutral. Our test isolates the covariance structure of neutral competition, thus facilitating further exploration of the nature of asymmetry in the covariance structure of competitive systems. Much like neutrality tests from population genetics that use relative abundance distributions have enabled researchers to scan entire genomes for genes under selection, we anticipate our time-series test will be useful for quick significance tests of neutrality across a range of ecological, economic, and sociological systems for which time-series data are available. Future work can use our test to categorize and compare the dynamic fingerprints of particular competitive asymmetries (frequency dependence, volatility smiles, etc) to improve forecasting and management of complex adaptive systems. PMID:27689714

Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics.

PubMed

Arbour, Jessica Hilary; López-Fernández, Hernán

2016-08-17

Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by 'ecological opportunity' are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram-suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram-suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. © 2016 The Author(s).

Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics

PubMed Central

López-Fernández, Hernán

2016-01-01

Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by ‘ecological opportunity’ are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram–suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram–suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. PMID:27512144

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Predictive Ecotoxicology in the 21st Century

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessments have long relied on apical data on survival, growth/development, and reproduction, generated in animal toxicity tests and the application of uncertainty factors and conservative (typically) assumptions as a basis for decision-making. However, advances ...

Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. This can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide an informative starting point for data assimilation.

Ecology-centered experiences among children and adolescents: A qualitative and quantitative analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, Judy

The present research involved two studies that considered ecology-centered experiences (i.e., experiences with living things) as a factor in children's environmental attitudes and behaviors and adolescents' ecological understanding. The first study (Study 1) examined how a community garden provides children in an urban setting the opportunity to learn about ecology through ecology-centered experiences. To do this, I carried out a yearlong ethnographic study at an urban community garden located in a large city in the Southeastern United States. Through participant observations and informal interviews of community garden staff and participants, I found children had opportunities to learn about ecology through ecology-centered experiences (e.g., interaction with animals) along with other experiences (e.g., playing games, reading books). In light of previous research that shows urban children have diminished ecological thought---a pattern of thought that privileges the relationship between living things---because of their lack of ecology-centered experiences (Coley, 2012), the present study may have implications for urban children to learn about ecology. As an extension of Study 1, I carried out a second study (Study 2) to investigate how ecology-centered experiences contribute to adolescents' environmental attitudes and behaviors in light of other contextual factors, namely environmental responsibility support, ecological thought, age and gender. Study 2 addressed three research questions. First, does ecological thought---a pattern of thought that privileges the relationship between living things---predict environmental attitudes and behaviors (EAB)? Results showed ecological thought did not predict EAB, an important finding considering the latent assumptions of previous research about the relationship between these two factors (e.g., Brugger, Kaiser, & Roczen, 2011). Second, do two types of contextual support, ecology-centered experiences (i.e., experiences with living things) and environmental responsibility support (i.e., support through the availability of environmentally responsible models) predict EAB? As predicted, results showed that ecology-centered experiences predicted EAB; yet, when environmental responsibility support was taken into consideration, ecology-centered experiences no longer predicted EAB. These findings suggested environmental responsibility support was a stronger predictor than ecology-centered experiences. Finally, do age and gender predict EAB? Consistent with previous research (e.g., Alp, Ertepiner, Tekkaya, & Yilmaz, 2006), age and gender significantly predicted EAB.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Independent evolution of the sexes promotes amphibian diversification.

PubMed

De Lisle, Stephen P; Rowe, Locke

2015-03-22

Classic ecological theory predicts that the evolution of sexual dimorphism constrains diversification by limiting morphospace available for speciation. Alternatively, sexual selection may lead to the evolution of reproductive isolation and increased diversification. We test contrasting predictions of these hypotheses by examining the relationship between sexual dimorphism and diversification in amphibians. Our analysis shows that the evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is associated with increased diversification and speciation, contrary to the ecological theory. Further, this result is unlikely to be explained by traditional sexual selection models because variation in amphibian SSD is unlikely to be driven entirely by sexual selection. We suggest that relaxing a central assumption of classic ecological models-that the sexes share a common adaptive landscape-leads to the alternative hypothesis that independent evolution of the sexes may promote diversification. Once the constraints of sexual conflict are relaxed, the sexes can explore morphospace that would otherwise be inaccessible. Consistent with this novel hypothesis, the evolution of SSD in amphibians is associated with reduced current extinction threat status, and an historical reduction in extinction rate. Our work reconciles conflicting predictions from ecological and evolutionary theory and illustrates that the ability of the sexes to evolve independently is associated with a spectacular vertebrate radiation. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damschen, Ellen I.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Haddad, Nick M.

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities,and external factors. We modified this framework togenerate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersedmore » species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time,whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.« less

Assessing Coupled Social Ecological Flood Vulnerability from Uttarakhand, India, to the State of New York with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.

2014-12-01

This talk describes the development of a web application to predict and communicate vulnerability to floods given publicly available data, disaster science, and geotech cloud capabilities. The proof of concept in Google Earth Engine API with initial testing on case studies in New York and Utterakhand India demonstrates the potential of highly parallelized cloud computing to model socio-ecological disaster vulnerability at high spatial and temporal resolution and in near real time. Cloud computing facilitates statistical modeling with variables derived from large public social and ecological data sets, including census data, nighttime lights (NTL), and World Pop to derive social parameters together with elevation, satellite imagery, rainfall, and observed flood data from Dartmouth Flood Observatory to derive biophysical parameters. While more traditional, physically based hydrological models that rely on flow algorithms and numerical methods are currently unavailable in parallelized computing platforms like Google Earth Engine, there is high potential to explore "data driven" modeling that trades physics for statistics in a parallelized environment. A data driven approach to flood modeling with geographically weighted logistic regression has been initially tested on Hurricane Irene in southeastern New York. Comparison of model results with observed flood data reveals a 97% accuracy of the model to predict flooded pixels. Testing on multiple storms is required to further validate this initial promising approach. A statistical social-ecological flood model that could produce rapid vulnerability assessments to predict who might require immediate evacuation and where could serve as an early warning. This type of early warning system would be especially relevant in data poor places lacking the computing power, high resolution data such as LiDar and stream gauges, or hydrologic expertise to run physically based models in real time. As the data-driven model presented relies on globally available data, the only real time data input required would be typical data from a weather service, e.g. precipitation or coarse resolution flood prediction. However, model uncertainty will vary locally depending upon the resolution and frequency of observed flood and socio-economic damage impact data.

Application of the ELOHA Framework to Regulated Rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin: A Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A; Orth, Dr. Donald J; Dolloff, Dr. Charles A

2013-01-01

In order for habitat restoration in regulated rivers to be effective at large scales, broadly applicable frameworks are needed that provide measurable objectives and contexts for management. The Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework was created as a template to assess hydrologic alterations, develop relationships between altered streamflow and ecology, and establish environmental flow standards. We tested the utility of ELOHA in informing flow restoration applications for fish and riparian communities in regulated rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). We followed the steps of ELOHA to generate flow alteration-ecological response relationships and then determined whether those relationshipsmore » could predict fish and riparian responses to flow restoration in the Cheoah River, a regulated system within the UTRB. Although ELOHA provided a robust template to construct hydrologic information and predict hydrology for ungaged locations, our results do not support the assertion that over-generalized univariate relationships between flow and ecology can produce results sufficient to guide management in regulated rivers. After constructing multivariate models, we successfully developed predictive relationships between flow alterations and fish/riparian responses. In accordance with model predictions, riparian encroachment displayed consistent decreases with increases in flow magnitude in the Cheoah River; however, fish richness did not increase as predicted four years post- restoration. Our results suggest that altered temperature and substrate and the current disturbance regime may have reduced opportunities for fish species colonization. Our case study highlights the need for interdisciplinary science in defining environmental flows for regulated rivers and the need for adaptive management approaches once flows are restored.« less

Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock-paper-scissors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Benjamin; Riley, Margaret A.; Feldman, Marcus W.; Bohannan, Brendan J. M.

2002-07-01

One of the central aims of ecology is to identify mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. Numerous theoretical models have shown that competing species can coexist if ecological processes such as dispersal, movement, and interaction occur over small spatial scales. In particular, this may be the case for non-transitive communities, that is, those without strict competitive hierarchies. The classic non-transitive system involves a community of three competing species satisfying a relationship similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cuts paper, and paper covers rock. Such relationships have been demonstrated in several natural systems. Some models predict that local interaction and dispersal are sufficient to ensure coexistence of all three species in such a community, whereas diversity is lost when ecological processes occur over larger scales. Here, we test these predictions empirically using a non-transitive model community containing three populations of Escherichia coli. We find that diversity is rapidly lost in our experimental community when dispersal and interaction occur over relatively large spatial scales, whereas all populations coexist when ecological processes are localized.

Ecological validity of the five digit test and the oral trails test.

PubMed

Paiva, Gabrielle Chequer de Castro; Fialho, Mariana Braga; Costa, Danielle de Souza; Paula, Jonas Jardim de

2016-01-01

Tests evaluating the attentional-executive system are widely used in clinical practice. However, proximity of an objective cognitive test with real-world situations (ecological validity) is not frequently investigated. The present study evaluate the association between measures of the Five Digit Test (FDT) and the Oral Trails Test (OTT) with self-reported cognitive failures in everyday life as measured by the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (CFQ). Brazilian adults from 18-to-65 years old voluntarily performed the FDT and OTT tests and reported the frequency of cognitive failures in their everyday life through the CFQ. After controlling for the age effect, the measures of controlled attentional processes were associated with cognitive failures, yet the cognitive flexibility of both FDT and OTT accounted for by the majority of variance in most aspects of the CFQ factors. The FDT and the OTT measures were predictive of real-world problems such as cognitive failures in everyday activities/situations.

Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada.

PubMed

Armanini, D G; Monk, W A; Carter, L; Cote, D; Baird, D J

2013-08-01

Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System approach with regional-scale applicability. To achieve this, we used biological monitoring data collected from wadeable streams across Atlantic Canada together with freely available, nationally consistent geographic information system (GIS) environmental data layers. For the first time, we demonstrated that it is possible to use data generated from different studies, even when collected using different sampling methods, to generate a robust predictive model. This model was successfully generated and tested using GIS-based rather than local habitat variables and showed improved performance when compared to a null model. In addition, ecological quality ratio data derived from the model responded to observed stressors in a test dataset. Implications for future large-scale implementation of river biomonitoring using a standardised approach with global application are presented.

The relative importance of regional, local, and evolutionary factors structuring cryptobenthic coral-reef assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadia, Gabby N.; Tornabene, Luke; Smith, David J.; Pezold, Frank L.

2018-03-01

Factors shaping coral-reef fish species assemblages can operate over a wide range of spatial scales (local versus regional) and across both proximate and evolutionary time. Niche theory and neutral theory provide frameworks for testing assumptions and generating insights about the importance of local versus regional processes. Niche theory postulates that species assemblages are an outcome of evolutionary processes at regional scales followed by local-scale interactions, whereas neutral theory presumes that species assemblages are formed by largely random processes drawing from regional species pools. Indo-Pacific cryptobenthic coral-reef fishes are highly evolved, ecologically diverse, temporally responsive, and situated on a natural longitudinal diversity gradient, making them an ideal group for testing predictions from niche and neutral theories and effects of regional and local processes on species assemblages. Using a combination of ecological metrics (fish density, diversity, assemblage composition) and evolutionary analyses (testing for phylogenetic niche conservatism), we demonstrate that the structure of cryptobenthic fish assemblages can be explained by a mixture of regional factors, such as the size of regional species pools and broad-scale barriers to gene flow/drivers of speciation, coupled with local-scale factors, such as the relative abundance of specific microhabitat types. Furthermore, species of cryptobenthic fishes have distinct microhabitat associations that drive significant differences in assemblage community structure between microhabitat types, and these distinct microhabitat associations are phylogenetically conserved over evolutionary timescales. The implied differential fitness of cryptobenthic fishes across varied microhabitats and the conserved nature of their ecology are consistent with predictions from niche theory. Neutral theory predictions may still hold true for early life-history stages, where stochastic factors may be more important in explaining recruitment. Overall, through integration of ecological and evolutionary techniques, and using multiple spatial scales, our study offers a unique perspective on factors determining coral-reef fish assemblages.

[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

2015-06-01

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.

Effect of Ecological Restoration on Body Condition of a Predator

PubMed Central

González-Tokman, Daniel; Martínez-Garza, Cristina

2015-01-01

Ecological restoration attempts to recover the structure and function of ecosystems that have been degraded by human activities. A crucial test of ecosystem recovery would be to determine whether individuals in restored environments are as healthy as those in conserved environments. However, the impact of restoration on physiology of terrestrial animals has never been tested. Here, we evaluated the effect of two restoration methods on body condition measured as body size, body mass, lipid and muscle content of the spider Nephila clavipes in a tropical dry forest that has suffered chronic disturbance due to cattle grazing. We used experimental plots that had been excluded from disturbance by cattle grazing during eight years. Plots were either planted with native trees (i. e. maximal intervention), or only excluded from disturbance (i. e. minimal intervention), and were compared with control conserved (remnants of original forest) and disturbed plots (where cattle is allowed to graze). We predicted (1) better body condition in spiders of conserved and restored sites, compared to disturbed sites, and (2) better body condition in plots with maximal intervention than in plots with minimal intervention. The first prediction was not supported in males or females, and the second prediction was only supported in females: body dry mass was higher in planted than in conserved plots for spiders of both sexes and also higher that in disturbed plots for males, suggesting that plantings are providing more resources. We discuss how different life histories and environmental pressures, such as food availability, parasitism, and competition for resources can explain our contrasting findings in male and female spiders. By studying animal physiology in restoration experiments it is possible to understand the mechanistic basis of ecological and evolutionary processes that determine success of ecological restoration. PMID:26226363

Effect of Ecological Restoration on Body Condition of a Predator.

PubMed

González-Tokman, Daniel; Martínez-Garza, Cristina

2015-01-01

Ecological restoration attempts to recover the structure and function of ecosystems that have been degraded by human activities. A crucial test of ecosystem recovery would be to determine whether individuals in restored environments are as healthy as those in conserved environments. However, the impact of restoration on physiology of terrestrial animals has never been tested. Here, we evaluated the effect of two restoration methods on body condition measured as body size, body mass, lipid and muscle content of the spider Nephila clavipes in a tropical dry forest that has suffered chronic disturbance due to cattle grazing. We used experimental plots that had been excluded from disturbance by cattle grazing during eight years. Plots were either planted with native trees (i. e. maximal intervention), or only excluded from disturbance (i. e. minimal intervention), and were compared with control conserved (remnants of original forest) and disturbed plots (where cattle is allowed to graze). We predicted (1) better body condition in spiders of conserved and restored sites, compared to disturbed sites, and (2) better body condition in plots with maximal intervention than in plots with minimal intervention. The first prediction was not supported in males or females, and the second prediction was only supported in females: body dry mass was higher in planted than in conserved plots for spiders of both sexes and also higher that in disturbed plots for males, suggesting that plantings are providing more resources. We discuss how different life histories and environmental pressures, such as food availability, parasitism, and competition for resources can explain our contrasting findings in male and female spiders. By studying animal physiology in restoration experiments it is possible to understand the mechanistic basis of ecological and evolutionary processes that determine success of ecological restoration.

77 FR 66149 - Significant New Use Rules on Certain Chemical Substances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-02

... ecological structural activity relationship (EcoSAR) analysis of test data on analogous esters, EPA predicts... milligram/cubic meter (mg/m\\3\\) as an 8-hour time-weighted average. In addition, based on EcoSAR analysis of... the PMN substance via the inhalation route. In addition, based on EcoSAR analysis of test data on...

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

PubMed

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid assessments and decisions for efficient conservation.

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

PubMed Central

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33), White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40), and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid assessments and decisions for efficient conservation. PMID:28097060

Testing the hypothesis of hierarchical predictability in ecological restoration and succession.

PubMed

Abella, Scott R; Schetter, Timothy A; Walters, Timothy L

2018-02-01

To advance predictive ecology, the hypothesis of hierarchical predictability proposes that community measures for which species are interchangeable (e.g., structure and species richness) are more predictable than measures for which species identity matters (e.g., community composition). Predictability is hypothesized to decrease for response measures in order of the following categories: structure, species richness, function, and species composition. We tested this hypothesis using a 14-year, oak savanna-prairie restoration experiment that removed non-native pine plantations at 24 sites in northwestern Ohio, USA. Based on 24 response measures, the data showed minimal support for the hypothesis, because response measures varied in predictability within categories. Half of response measures had over half their variability modeled using fixed (restoration treatment and year) and random plot effects, and these "predictable" measures occurred in all four categories. Pine basal area, environment (e.g., soil texture), and antecedent vegetation accounted for over half the variation in change within the first three post-restoration years for 77% of response measures. Change between the 3rd and 14th years was less predictable, but most restoration measures increased favorably via sites achieving them in unique ways. We propose that variation will not conform with the hypothesis of hierarchical predictability in ecosystems with vegetation dynamics driven by stochastic processes such as seed dispersal, or where vegetation structure and species richness are influenced by species composition. The ability to predict a community measure may be more driven by the number of combinations of casual factors affecting a measure than by the number of values it can have.

Applications of ecological concepts and remote sensing technologies in archaeological site reconnaissance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, W. Frank; Sever, Thomas L.; Lee, C. Daniel

1991-01-01

The concept of integrating ecological perspectives on early man's settlement patterns with advanced remote sensing technologies shows promise for predictive site modeling. Early work with aerial imagery and ecosystem analysis is discussed with respect to the development of a major project in Maya archaeology supported by NASA and the National Geographic Society with technical support from the Mississippi State Remote Sensing Center. A preliminary site reconnaissance model will be developed for testing during the 1991 field season.

Improving the ecological relevance of toxicity tests on scleractinian corals: Influence of season, life stage, and seawater temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedouin, Laetitia; Wolf, Ruth E.; Phillips, Jeff; Gates, Ruth D.

2016-01-01

Our data support the paradigm that upward excursions in temperature influence physiological processes in corals that play key roles in regulating metal toxicity. These influences are more pronounced in larva versus adult corals. These findings are important when contextualized climate change-driven warming in the oceans and highlight that predictions of ecological outcomes to metal pollutants will be improved by considering environmental context and the life stages of organism under study.

New High Throughput Methods to Estimate Chemical Exposure

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has made many recent advances in high throughput bioactivity testing. However, concurrent advances in rapid, quantitative prediction of human and ecological exposures have been lacking, despite the clear importance of both measures for a risk-based approach to prioritizing an...

Wild Mammalian Biomonitors for Assessing Impacts of Environmental Contamination on Population and Community Ecology

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-06-01

will be compared to common laboratory bioassay tests (fathea minnow survival, rice seed germination test, etc.), relative to their ability to pre- ’dict...rice seed germination , and Ceriodaphnia assays. At the ecosystem level, in situ small mammal total biomass, sex ratios, reproduction, recruit- ment...bioassay tests (fathead minnow survival, rice seed germination test, etc.), relative to their ability to predict ecotoxicity risks (as indexed by

Interpreting the Process behind Endemism in China by Integrating the Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models of the Stachyridopsis ruficeps

PubMed Central

Liu, Huatao; Wang, Wenjuan; Song, Gang; Qu, Yanhua; Li, Shou-Hsien; Fjeldså, Jon; Lei, Fumin

2012-01-01

An area of endemism (AOE) is a complex expression of the ecological and evolutionary history of a species. Here we aim to address the principal drivers of avian diversification in shaping patterns of endemism in China by integrating genetic, ecological, and distributional data on the Red-headed Tree Babbler (Stachyridopsis ruficeps), which is distributed across the eastern Himalayas and south China. We sequenced two mtDNA markers from 182 individuals representing all three of the primary AOEs in China. Phylogenetic inferences were used to reconstruct intraspecific phylogenetic relationships. Divergence time and population demography were estimated to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the species. We used Ecological niche modeling to predict species’ distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and in the present. Finally, we also used two quantitative tests, an identity test and background test to assess the similarity of ecological niche preferences between adjacent lineages. We found five primary reciprocally monophyletic clades, typically separated approximately 0.2–2.27 MYA, of which three were deeply isolated endemic lineages located in the three AOEs. All phylogroups were detected to have undergone population expansion during the past 0.3 MY. Niche models showed discontinuous habitats, and there were three barriers of less suitable habitat during the LGM and in modern times. Ecoclimatic niches may diverge significantly even over recent timescales, as each phylogroup had a unique distribution, and unique niche characteristics. Vicariant events associated with geographical and ecological barriers, glacial refuges and ecological differentiation may be the main drivers forming the pattern of endemism in China. PMID:23056441

Plant interactions alter the predictions of metabolic scaling theory.

PubMed

Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

2013-01-01

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of -4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms' internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than -4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive.

Central-place foraging and ecological effects of an invasive predator across multiple habitats.

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2016-10-01

Cross-habitat foraging movements of predators can have widespread implications for predator and prey populations, community structure, nutrient transfer, and ecosystem function. Although central-place foraging models and other aspects of optimal foraging theory focus on individual predator behavior, they also provide useful frameworks for understanding the effects of predators on prey populations across multiple habitats. However, few studies have examined both the foraging behavior and ecological effects of nonnative predators across multiple habitats, and none has tested whether nonnative predators deplete prey in a manner predicted by these foraging models. I conducted behavioral observations of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans) to determine whether they exhibit foraging movements similar to other central-place consumers. Then, I used a manipulative field experiment to test whether their effects on prey populations are consistent with three qualitative predictions from optimal foraging models. Specifically, I predicted that the effects of invasive lionfish on native prey will (1) occur at central sites first and then in surrounding habitats, (2) decrease with increasing distance away from their shelter site, and (3) extend to greater distances when prey patches are spaced closer together. Approximately 40% of lionfish exhibited short-term crepuscular foraging movements into surrounding habitats from the coral patch reefs where they shelter during daylight hours. Over the course of 7 weeks, lionfish depleted native fish populations on the coral patch reefs where they reside, and subsequently on small structures in the surrounding habitat. However, their effects did not decrease with increasing distance from the central shelter site and the influence of patch spacing was opposite the prediction. Instead, lionfish always had the greatest effects in areas with the highest prey densities. The differences between the predicted and observed effects of lionfish foraging are likely due to different constraints faced by invasive predators compared to native predators, namely that lionfish do not face increased predation risk with increased movement away from shelter sites. By foraging at greater distances from patch reefs than native predators, lionfish eliminated a spatial refuge from predation used by juveniles of many commercially and ecologically important reef fishes. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Monitoring and Compliance Program 2007 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Dennis; Anderson, David; Derek, Hall

2008-03-01

In accordance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 450.1, 'Environmental Protection Program', the Office of the Assistant Manager for Environmental Management of the DOE, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) requires ecological monitoring and biological compliance support for activities and programs conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), Ecological Services has implemented the Ecological Monitoring and Compliance (EMAC) Program to provide this support. EMAC is designed to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations, delineate and define NTS ecosystems, and provide ecological information that can be used to predict and evaluate themore » potential impacts of proposed projects and programs on those ecosystems. This report summarizes the EMAC activities conducted by NSTec during calendar year 2007. Monitoring tasks during 2007 included eight program areas: (a) biological surveys, (b) desert tortoise compliance, (c) ecosystem mapping and data management, (d) sensitive plant monitoring, (e) sensitive and protected/regulated animal monitoring, (f) habitat monitoring, (g) habitat restoration monitoring, and (h) biological monitoring at the Nonproliferation Test and Evaluation Complex (NPTEC). The following sections of this report describe work performed under these eight areas.« less

Translocations as Experiments in the Ecological Resilience of an Asocial Mega-Herbivore

PubMed Central

Linklater, Wayne L.; Gedir, Jay V.; Law, Peter R.; Swaisgood, Ron R.; Adcock, Keryn; du Preez, Pierre; Knight, Michael H.; Kerley, Graham I. H.

2012-01-01

Species translocations are remarkable experiments in evolutionary ecology, and increasingly critical to biodiversity conservation. Elaborate socio-ecological hypotheses for translocation success, based on theoretical fitness relationships, are untested and lead to complex uncertainty rather than parsimonious solutions. We used an extraordinary 89 reintroduction and 102 restocking events releasing 682 black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) to 81 reserves in southern Africa (1981–2005) to test the influence of interacting socio-ecological and individual characters on post-release survival. We predicted that the socio-ecological context should feature more prominently after restocking than reintroduction because released rhinoceros interact with resident conspecifics. Instead, an interaction between release cohort size and habitat quality explained reintroduction success but only individuals' ages explained restocking outcomes. Achieving translocation success for many species may not be as complicated as theory suggests. Black rhino, and similarly asocial generalist herbivores without substantial predators, are likely to be resilient to ecological challenges and robust candidates for crisis management in a changing world. PMID:22295100

Translocations as experiments in the ecological resilience of an asocial mega-herbivore.

PubMed

Linklater, Wayne L; Gedir, Jay V; Law, Peter R; Swaisgood, Ron R; Adcock, Keryn; du Preez, Pierre; Knight, Michael H; Kerley, Graham I H

2012-01-01

Species translocations are remarkable experiments in evolutionary ecology, and increasingly critical to biodiversity conservation. Elaborate socio-ecological hypotheses for translocation success, based on theoretical fitness relationships, are untested and lead to complex uncertainty rather than parsimonious solutions. We used an extraordinary 89 reintroduction and 102 restocking events releasing 682 black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) to 81 reserves in southern Africa (1981-2005) to test the influence of interacting socio-ecological and individual characters on post-release survival. We predicted that the socio-ecological context should feature more prominently after restocking than reintroduction because released rhinoceros interact with resident conspecifics. Instead, an interaction between release cohort size and habitat quality explained reintroduction success but only individuals' ages explained restocking outcomes. Achieving translocation success for many species may not be as complicated as theory suggests. Black rhino, and similarly asocial generalist herbivores without substantial predators, are likely to be resilient to ecological challenges and robust candidates for crisis management in a changing world.

Ecology of Freedom: Competitive Tests of the Role of Pathogens, Climate, and Natural Disasters in the Development of Socio-Political Freedom

PubMed Central

Kusano, Kodai; Kemmelmeier, Markus

2018-01-01

Many countries around the world embrace freedom and democracy as part of their political culture. However, culture is at least in part a human response to the ecological challenges that a society faces; hence, it should not be surprising that the degree to which societies regulate the level of individual freedom is related to environmental circumstances. Previous research suggests that levels of societal freedom across countries are systematically related to three types of ecological threats: prevalence of pathogens, climate challenges, and natural disaster threat. Though their incidence overlaps, the literature has not yet provided a competitive test. Drawing upon the ecocultural framework, we tested five rival hypotheses, alternately focused on the above ecological factors and their interactions with economic wealth in explaining country variations in socio-political freedom. Focusing on data from 150 countries, we performed a series of linear mixed-effects regressions predicting freedom in the domains of politics, media, and economy. We found that countries with higher pathogen prevalence were more likely to suppress democracy and media freedom. Economic wealth, however, moderated the effect of pathogen prevalence on economic freedom, with the main effect being only found among wealthy countries, but not among poor countries. In contrast, natural disaster threat predicted political freedom and press freedom only among poor countries, consistent with the idea that disaster threat accompanied by poor resources promote socio-political freedom as a means of increasing collective survival. Throughout our analyses, we found no support for hypotheses based on climatic challenges. In addition, our multilevel approach revealed that country scores for socio-political freedom were highly clustered within world regions, accounting for substantial portions of variance. Overall, the present research offers a nuanced view of the interplay between ecology and wealth in the emergence of socio-political freedom. We discuss new directions in future research considering methodological and theoretical contributions of the present findings.

Individual dispersal delays in a cooperative breeder: Ecological constraints, the benefits of philopatry and the social queue for dominance.

PubMed

Nelson-Flower, Martha J; Wiley, Elizabeth M; Flower, Tom P; Ridley, Amanda R

2018-03-20

Delayed dispersal is a key step in the evolution of familial animal societies and cooperative breeding. However, no consensus has been reached on the ecological and social circumstances driving delayed dispersal. Here, we test predictions from the ecological constraints and benefits of philopatry hypotheses as well as the recently proposed dual benefits hypothesis to better understand the evolution of group-living and cooperative breeding. Furthermore, we consider how individual social circumstances within groups affect dispersal decisions. We examine 11 years of life-history information on a wild population of cooperatively breeding southern pied babblers Turdoides bicolor. We investigate the effects of ecological conditions, natal-group membership and individual social context on male and female dispersal delays, disperser survival and acquisition of dominance. Female dispersal decisions are generally unconstrained by ecological or social circumstances. In contrast, males disperse in response to relaxed ecological constraints, decreases in nepotistic tolerance or when low social rank in the queue for dominance decreases their likelihood of gaining a dominant breeding position. Early dispersal by end-of-queue males often leads to a head-of-queue subordinate position in a non-natal group, thereby increasing access to dominant breeding positions. However, males and females remaining in natal groups gain benefits of philopatry via increased survival and, for head-of-queue males, very high likelihood of acquisition of a breeding position. Overall, predictions from the dual benefits hypothesis best describe these results, while some predictions from each of the ecological constraints and benefits of philopatry hypotheses were supported. The benefits of living and working together (collective action benefits) in large stable groups are of central importance in shaping dispersal delays in southern pied babbler societies. In addition, position in the subordinate social queue for dominance is the key in determining access to reproduction, particularly for males. This research highlights the importance of considering the costs and benefits of individual social circumstances in dispersal decisions and illustrates how the dual benefits hypothesis offers new perspectives in understanding delayed dispersal. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Ecological and evolutionary drivers of the elevational gradient of diversity.

PubMed

Laiolo, Paola; Pato, Joaquina; Obeso, José Ramón

2018-05-02

Ecological, evolutionary, spatial and neutral theories make distinct predictions and provide distinct explanations for the mechanisms that control the relationship between diversity and the environment. Here, we test predictions of the elevational diversity gradient focusing on Iberian bumblebees, grasshoppers and birds. Processes mediated by local abundance and regional diversity concur in explaining local diversity patterns along elevation. Effects expressed through variation in abundance were similar among taxa and point to the overriding role of a physical factor, temperature. This determines how energy is distributed among individuals and ultimately how the resulting pattern of abundance affects species incidence. Effects expressed through variation in regional species pools depended instead on taxon-specific evolutionary history, and lead to diverging responses under similar environmental pressures. Local filters and regional variation also explain functional diversity gradients, in line with results from species richness that indicate an (local) ecological and (regional) historical unfolding of diversity-elevation relationships. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Quantifying the adaptive cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Gunderson, Lance H; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Novel covariance-based neutrality test of time-series data reveals asymmetries in ecological and economic systems

DOE PAGES

Washburne, Alex D.; Burby, Joshua W.; Lacker, Daniel; ...

2016-09-30

Systems as diverse as the interacting species in a community, alleles at a genetic locus, and companies in a market are characterized by competition (over resources, space, capital, etc) and adaptation. Neutral theory, built around the hypothesis that individual performance is independent of group membership, has found utility across the disciplines of ecology, population genetics, and economics, both because of the success of the neutral hypothesis in predicting system properties and because deviations from these predictions provide information about the underlying dynamics. However, most tests of neutrality are weak, based on static system properties such as species-abundance distributions or themore » number of singletons in a sample. Time-series data provide a window onto a system’s dynamics, and should furnish tests of the neutral hypothesis that are more powerful to detect deviations from neutrality and more informative about to the type of competitive asymmetry that drives the deviation. Here, we present a neutrality test for time-series data. We apply this test to several microbial time-series and financial time-series and find that most of these systems are not neutral. Our test isolates the covariance structure of neutral competition, thus facilitating further exploration of the nature of asymmetry in the covariance structure of competitive systems. Much like neutrality tests from population genetics that use relative abundance distributions have enabled researchers to scan entire genomes for genes under selection, we anticipate our time-series test will be useful for quick significance tests of neutrality across a range of ecological, economic, and sociological systems for which time-series data are available. Here, future work can use our test to categorize and compare the dynamic fingerprints of particular competitive asymmetries (frequency dependence, volatility smiles, etc) to improve forecasting and management of complex adaptive systems.« less

Novel covariance-based neutrality test of time-series data reveals asymmetries in ecological and economic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washburne, Alex D.; Burby, Joshua W.; Lacker, Daniel

Systems as diverse as the interacting species in a community, alleles at a genetic locus, and companies in a market are characterized by competition (over resources, space, capital, etc) and adaptation. Neutral theory, built around the hypothesis that individual performance is independent of group membership, has found utility across the disciplines of ecology, population genetics, and economics, both because of the success of the neutral hypothesis in predicting system properties and because deviations from these predictions provide information about the underlying dynamics. However, most tests of neutrality are weak, based on static system properties such as species-abundance distributions or themore » number of singletons in a sample. Time-series data provide a window onto a system’s dynamics, and should furnish tests of the neutral hypothesis that are more powerful to detect deviations from neutrality and more informative about to the type of competitive asymmetry that drives the deviation. Here, we present a neutrality test for time-series data. We apply this test to several microbial time-series and financial time-series and find that most of these systems are not neutral. Our test isolates the covariance structure of neutral competition, thus facilitating further exploration of the nature of asymmetry in the covariance structure of competitive systems. Much like neutrality tests from population genetics that use relative abundance distributions have enabled researchers to scan entire genomes for genes under selection, we anticipate our time-series test will be useful for quick significance tests of neutrality across a range of ecological, economic, and sociological systems for which time-series data are available. Here, future work can use our test to categorize and compare the dynamic fingerprints of particular competitive asymmetries (frequency dependence, volatility smiles, etc) to improve forecasting and management of complex adaptive systems.« less

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A; Brandley, Matthew C; Pyron, R Alexander

2012-12-07

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification.

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

PubMed

Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

2017-06-01

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A model of ecological and evolutionary consequences of color polymorphism.

PubMed

Forsman, Anders; Ahnesjö, Jonas; Caesar, Sofia; Karlsson, Magnus

2008-01-01

We summarize direct and indirect effects on fitness components of animal color pattern and present a synthesis of theories concerning the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of chromatic multiple niche polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed primarily at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance of polymorphisms. We consider in a conceptual model also the reciprocal influence of color polymorphism on population processes and propose that polymorphism entails selective advantages that may promote the ecological success of polymorphic species. The model begins with an evolutionary branching event from mono- to polymorphic condition that, under the influence of correlational selection, is predicted to promote the evolution of physical integration of coloration and other traits (cf. multi-trait coevolution and complex phenotypes). We propose that the coexistence within a population of alternative ecomorphs with coadapted gene complexes promotes utilization of diverse environmental resources, population stability and persistence, colonization success, and range expansions, and enhances the evolutionary potential and speciation. Conversely, we predict polymorphic populations to be less vulnerable to environmental change and at lower risk of range contractions and extinctions compared with monomorphic populations. We offer brief suggestions as to how these falsifiable predictions may be tested.

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation

PubMed Central

Burbrink, Frank T.; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A.; Brandley, Matthew C.; Pyron, R. Alexander

2012-01-01

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification. PMID:23034709

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

PubMed

Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

2017-07-07

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

2017-01-01

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

Prediction of Hydrologic Characteristics for Ungauged Catchments to Support Hydroecological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Nick R.; Kennard, Mark J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic variability is a fundamental driver of ecological processes and species distribution patterns within river systems, yet the paucity of gauges in many catchments means that streamflow data are often unavailable for ecological survey sites. Filling this data gap is an important challenge in hydroecological research. To address this gap, we first test the ability to spatially extrapolate hydrologic metrics calculated from gauged streamflow data to ungauged sites as a function of stream distance and catchment area. Second, we examine the ability of statistical models to predict flow regime metrics based on climate and catchment physiographic variables. Our assessment focused on Australia's largest catchment, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). We found that hydrologic metrics were predictable only between sites within ˜25 km of one another. Beyond this, correlations between sites declined quickly. We found less than 40% of fish survey sites from a recent basin-wide monitoring program (n = 777 sites) to fall within this 25 km range, thereby greatly limiting the ability to utilize gauge data for direct spatial transposition of hydrologic metrics to biological survey sites. In contrast, statistical model-based transposition proved effective in predicting ecologically relevant aspects of the flow regime (including metrics describing central tendency, high- and low-flows intermittency, seasonality, and variability) across the entire gauge network (median R2 ˜ 0.54, range 0.39-0.94). Modeled hydrologic metrics thus offer a useful alternative to empirical data when examining biological survey data from ungauged sites. More widespread use of these statistical tools and modeled metrics could expand our understanding of flow-ecology relationships.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

PREDICTING FIELD PERFORMANCE OF HERBACEOUS SPECIES FOR PHYTOREMEDIATION OF PERCHLORATE

EPA Science Inventory

Results of these short-term experiments coupled with ecological knowledge of the nine herbaceous plant species tested suggest that several species may by successful in on-site remediation of perchlorate. The two wetland species which appear to be most suitable for field experimen...

Sensation seeking and executive deficits in relation to alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use frequency among university students: Value of ecologically based measures.

PubMed

Meil, William M; LaPorte, David J; Mills, John A; Sesti, Ann; Collins, Sunshine M; Stiver, Alyssa G

2016-11-01

The development of substance use and addiction has been linked to impaired executive function which relies on systems that converge in the prefrontal cortex. This study examined several measures of executive function as predictors of college student alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use frequency and abuse. College students (N=321) were administered the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) test battery, the Sensation Seeking Scale V (SSSV), the Frontal Systems Behavioral Scale (FrSBe), the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), the Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST), the Fagerstrom Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND). Alcohol use frequency was predicted by sensation seeking and FrSBe Disinhibition scores, but the latter only emerged as a unique predictor for binge drinking frequency. Sex and Disinhibition, Apathy and Executive Function FrSBe subscales predicted the frequency of tobacco use. FrSBe scores uniquely predicted tobacco use among daily users. Marijuana use frequency was predicted by sensation seeking, sex, perceived stress, and FrSBe Disinhibition scores, but only sensation seeking predicted daily use after controlling for other variables. FrSBe Disinhibition scores reached levels considered to be clinically significant for frequent binge drinkers and daily marijuana users. Sensation seeking emerged as the predominate predictor of the early stages of alcohol and tobacco related problems. These results suggest ecologically based self-report measures of frontal lobe function and sensation seeking are significant predictors of use frequency among college students and the extent of frontal dysfunction may be clinically significant among some heavy users. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishment of the Northeast Coastal Watershed Geospatial Data Network (NECWGDN)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hannigan, Robyn

The goals of NECWGDN were to establish integrated geospatial databases that interfaced with existing open-source (water.html) environmental data server technologies (e.g., HydroDesktop) and included ecological and human data to enable evaluation, prediction, and adaptation in coastal environments to climate- and human-induced threats to the coastal marine resources within the Gulf of Maine. We have completed the development and testing of a "test bed" architecture that is compatible with HydroDesktop and have identified key metadata structures that will enable seamless integration and delivery of environmental, ecological, and human data as well as models to predict threats to end-users. Uniquely this databasemore » integrates point as well as model data and so offers capacities to end-users that are unique among databases. Future efforts will focus on the development of integrated environmental-human dimension models that can serve, in near real time, visualizations of threats to coastal resources and habitats.« less

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingying; Wang, Juncheng; Vorontsov, A M; Hou, Guangli; Nikanorova, M N; Wang, Hongliang

2014-01-01

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a "rolling" fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.

Our microbial selves: what ecology can teach us

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Antonio; Clemente, Jose C; Shade, Ashley; Metcalf, Jessica L; Song, Sejin; Prithiviraj, Bharath; Palmer, Brent E; Knight, Rob

2011-01-01

Advances in DNA sequencing have allowed us to characterize microbial communities—including those associated with the human body—at a broader range of spatial and temporal scales than ever before. We can now answer fundamental questions that were previously inaccessible and use well-tested ecological theories to gain insight into changes in the microbiome that are associated with normal development and human disease. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the ecosystems associated with our body follow trends identified in communities at other sites and scales, and thus studies of the microbiome benefit from ecological insight. Here, we assess human microbiome research in the context of ecological principles and models, focusing on diversity, biological drivers of community structure, spatial patterning and temporal dynamics, and suggest key directions for future research that will bring us closer to the goal of building predictive models for personalized medicine. PMID:21720391

Evaluation of the ecological relevance of mysid toxicity tests using population modeling techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhn-Hines, A.; Munns, W.R. Jr.; Lussier, S.

1995-12-31

A number of acute and chronic bioassay statistics are used to evaluate the toxicity and risks of chemical stressors to the mysid shrimp, Mysidopsis bahia. These include LC{sub 50}S from acute tests, NOECs from 7-day and life-cycle tests, and the US EPA Water Quality Criteria Criterion Continuous Concentrations (CCC). Because these statistics are generated from endpoints which focus upon the responses of individual organisms, their relationships to significant effects at higher levels of ecological organization are unknown. This study was conducted to evaluate the quantitative relationships between toxicity test statistics and a concentration-based statistic derived from exposure-response models describing populationmore » growth rate ({lambda}) to stressor concentration. This statistic, C{sup {sm_bullet}} (concentration where {lambda} = I, zero population growth) describes the concentration above which mysid populations are projected to decline in abundance as determined using population modeling techniques. An analysis of M. bahia responses to 9 metals and 9 organic contaminants indicated the NOEC from life-cycle tests to be the best predictor of C{sup {sm_bullet}}, although the acute LC{sub 50} predicted population-level response surprisingly well. These analyses provide useful information regarding uncertainties of extrapolation among test statistics in assessments of ecological risk.« less

Digit Span as a measure of everyday attention: a study of ecological validity.

PubMed

Groth-Marnat, Gary; Baker, Sonya

2003-12-01

This study investigated the effectiveness of the WAIS-III Digit Span subtest to predict the everyday attention of 75 participants with heterogeneous neurological conditions who were administered the Digit Span subtest as well as the ecologically valid Test of Everyday Attention. In addition, the more visually oriented Picture Completion subtest along with the verbally loaded National Adult Reading Test were administered. Analysis indicated that, although Digit Span was a weak but statistically significant predictor of attentional ability (accounting for 12.7% of the unique variance). Picture Completion was a somewhat stronger predictor (accounting for 19% of the unique variance). The weak association of Digit Span and the Test of Everyday Attention, along with the finding that Picture Completion was a better predictor of performance on the Test of Everyday Attention, question the clinical utility of using Digit Span as a measure of everyday attention.

Predicting ecological roles in the rhizosphere using metabolome and transportome modeling

DOE PAGES

Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang; ...

2015-09-02

The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. New algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter ofmore » plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.« less

Predicting Ecological Roles in the Rhizosphere Using Metabolome and Transportome Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang

2015-09-02

The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. However, new algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad's ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promotermore » of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism's transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.« less

Metabolic theory predicts animal self-thinning.

PubMed

Jonsson, Tomas

2017-05-01

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) predicts observed patterns in ecology based on metabolic rates of individuals. The theory is influential but also criticized for a lack of firm empirical evidence confirming MTE's quantitative predictions of processes, e.g. outcome of competition, at population or community level. Self-thinning is a well-known population level phenomenon among plants, but a much less studied phenomenon in animal populations and no consensus exists on what a universal thinning slope for animal populations might be, or if it exists. The goal of this study was to use animal self-thinning as a tool to test population-level predictions from MTE, by analysing (i) if self-thinning can be induced in populations of house crickets (Acheta domesticus) and (ii) if the resulting thinning trajectories can be predicted from metabolic theory, using estimates of the species-specific metabolic rate of A. domesticus. I performed a laboratory study where the growth of A. domesticus was followed, from hatching until emergence as adults, in 71 cohorts of five different starting densities. Ninety-six per cent of all cohorts in the three highest starting densities showed evidence of self-thinning, with estimated thinning slopes in general being remarkably close to that expected under metabolic constraints: A cross-sectional analysis of all data showing evidence of self-thinning produced an ordinary least square (OLS) slope of -1·11, exactly that predicted from specific metabolic allometry of A. domesticus. This result is furthermore supported by longitudinal analyses, allowing for independent responses within cohorts, producing a mean OLS slope across cohorts of -1·13 and a fixed effect linear mixed effects models slope of -1·09. Sensitivity analysis showed that these results are robust to how the criterion for on-going self-thinning was defined. Finally, also as predicted by metabolic theory, temperature had a negative effect on the thinning intercept, producing an estimate of the activation energy identical to that suggested by MTE. This study demonstrates a direct link between the metabolic rate of individuals and a population-level ecological process and as such provides strong support for research that aims to integrate body mass, via its effect on metabolism, consumption and competition, into models of populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Educational and Ecological Correlates of IQ: A Cross-National Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barber, N.

2005-01-01

The new paradigm of evolutionary social science suggests that humans adjust rapidly to changing economic conditions, including cognitive changes in response to the economic significance of education. This research tested the predictions that cross-national differences in IQ scores would be positively correlated with education and negatively…

Genetics of forest trees

Treesearch

Jessica Wright

2014-01-01

Combining data from provenance test studies with our current understanding of predicted climate change can be a powerful tool for informing reforestation efforts. However, the limitations of both sources of data need to be understood to develop an approach to ecological restoration that reduces risk and promotes the highest chance of successful reforestation.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Chetan, Nag; Praveen, Karanth K.; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

2014-01-01

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula. PMID:24498377

Delineating ecological boundaries of Hanuman langur species complex in peninsular India using MaxEnt modeling approach.

PubMed

Nag, Chetan; Chetan, Nag; Karanth, K Praveen; Praveen, Karanth K; Gururaja, Kotambylu Vasudeva; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

2014-01-01

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

PubMed

Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

2011-05-01

It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia

PubMed Central

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. PMID:26856914

Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

PubMed

Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

2016-04-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Divergent host-plant use promotes reproductive isolation among cynipid gall wasp populations

PubMed Central

Egan, Scott P.; Hood, Glen R.; Feder, Jeff L.; Ott, James R.

2012-01-01

Ecological speciation occurs when reproductive isolation evolves as a consequence of divergent natural selection among environments. A direct prediction of this process is that ecologically divergent pairs of populations will exhibit greater reproductive isolation than ecologically similar pairs of populations. By comparing allopatric populations of the cynipid gall wasp Belonocnema treatae infesting Quercus virginiana and Quercus geminata, we tested the role that divergent host use plays in generating ecological divergence and sexual isolation. We found differences in body size and gall structure associated with divergent host use, but no difference in neutral genetic divergence between populations on the same or different host plant. We observed significant assortative mating between populations from alternative host plants but not between allopatric populations on the same host plant. Thus, we provide evidence that divergent host use promotes speciation among gall wasp populations. PMID:22337505

Separating macroecological pattern and process: comparing ecological, economic, and geological systems.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Sloat, Lindsey; Enquist, Brian J; McGill, Brian

2014-01-01

Theories of biodiversity rest on several macroecological patterns describing the relationship between species abundance and diversity. A central problem is that all theories make similar predictions for these patterns despite disparate assumptions. A troubling implication is that these patterns may not reflect anything unique about organizational principles of biology or the functioning of ecological systems. To test this, we analyze five datasets from ecological, economic, and geological systems that describe the distribution of objects across categories in the United States. At the level of functional form ('first-order effects'), these patterns are not unique to ecological systems, indicating they may reveal little about biological process. However, we show that mechanism can be better revealed in the scale-dependency of first-order patterns ('second-order effects'). These results provide a roadmap for biodiversity theory to move beyond traditional patterns, and also suggest ways in which macroecological theory can constrain the dynamics of economic systems.

Evaluating Productivity Predictions Under Elevated CO2 Conditions: Multi-Model Benchmarking Across FACE Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2016-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty.The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an informatics toolbox that wraps around an ecosystem model and can be used to help identify which factors drive uncertainty. We tested a suite of models (LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, GDAY, CLM5, DALEC, ED2), which represent a range from low to high structural complexity, across a range of Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments: the Kennedy Space Center Open Top Chamber Experiment, the Rhinelander FACE experiment, the Duke Forest FACE experiment and the Oak Ridge Experiment on CO2 Enrichment. These tests were implemented in a novel benchmarking workflow that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Observational data from the FACE experiments represent a first test of this flexible, extensible approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation.To identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences we used PEcAn to perform model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, not only to assess the components of NPP, but also to examine system processes such nutrient uptake and and water use. Combining the observed patterns of uncertainty between multiple models with results of the recent FACE-model data synthesis project (FACE-MDS) can help identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. These findings can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide informative starting point for data assimilation.

[Comparison of the Wechsler Memory Scale-III and the Spain-Complutense Verbal Learning Test in acquired brain injury: construct validity and ecological validity].

PubMed

Luna-Lario, P; Pena, J; Ojeda, N

2017-04-16

To perform an in-depth examination of the construct validity and the ecological validity of the Wechsler Memory Scale-III (WMS-III) and the Spain-Complutense Verbal Learning Test (TAVEC). The sample consists of 106 adults with acquired brain injury who were treated in the Area of Neuropsychology and Neuropsychiatry of the Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra and displayed memory deficit as the main sequela, measured by means of specific memory tests. The construct validity is determined by examining the tasks required in each test over the basic theoretical models, comparing the performance according to the parameters offered by the tests, contrasting the severity indices of each test and analysing their convergence. The external validity is explored through the correlation between the tests and by using regression models. According to the results obtained, both the WMS-III and the TAVEC have construct validity. The TAVEC is more sensitive and captures not only the deficits in mnemonic consolidation, but also in the executive functions involved in memory. The working memory index of the WMS-III is useful for predicting the return to work at two years after the acquired brain injury, but none of the instruments anticipates the disability and dependence at least six months after the injury. We reflect upon the construct validity of the tests and their insufficient capacity to predict functionality when the sequelae become chronic.

Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

2016-11-01

A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body stoichiometry, largely by changing levels of energy storage molecules. Our results highlight that two widespread patterns, the trade-off between rapid development and energy storage and the increased investment in reproduction under size-selective predation, cause predictable deviations from current ecological stoichiometry theory. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

The formation of early settled villages and the emergence of leadership: A test of three theoretical models in the Rio Ilave, Lake Titicaca Basin, southern Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Nathan Mcdonald

Despite obvious necessities for understanding later developments in the region, Preceramic cultures in the Titicaca Basin are poorly understood due to lacking empirical data. This dissertation focuses on examination of two processes occurring in the Rio Ilave drainage during the Late 5000--3100 B.C.E. (6000--4400 B.P.) and Terminal 3100--1500 B.C.E. Archaic (4400--3200 B.P.): the formation of settled villages and the emergence of leadership. These processes are tested against theoretical predictions derived from: population resource imbalance, human behavioral ecology, and agency theories. Resource imbalance theory predicts appearance of density dependent adaptive problems prior to major cultural transformations. Human behavioral ecology predicts increased dietary diversity and incorporation of greater processing costs occuring coincidentally with reduced residential mobility. Symbolic mate value advertising is a predicted leadership strategy. Agency theory predicts internal sources of social tension, potentially independent of external forces, as primary causes of cultural change. Feast hosting and the formation political economy are expected to be central to both social processes investigated from this perspective. Local paleoclimatic proxies suggest aridity from ca 4000--2000 B.C.E. Reanalysis of pedestrian survey data indicate population growth during the Late Archaic. Excavation and ground penetrating radar survey at Pirco and Jiskairumoko demonstrate reduced residential mobility and increased evidence for social differentiation appearing during the Late Archaic's (before 3000 B.C.E.) end. New cultural patterns include: pithouses, more groundstone, internal storage, costly non-local artifacts, domesticated plants and animals, costly grave goods, and use of ochre in symbolic contexts. No clear cut evidence for inter-community promotional feasting was identified but some finds suggest intra-community alliance feasts. By the end of the Terminal Archaic ca. 1500 B.C.E., domestic architecture changes to rectangular above ground structures lacking internal storage. Survey and excavation data strongly support population-resource imbalance theory. Excavation results are largely consistent with human behavioral ecology expectations. Evidence for early population growth rejects the expectation from some forms of agency theory asserting social change occurs largely independent of external forces. However, the support for human behavioral ecology suggests conspecific interaction and therefore forces described by agency theory are at play during these cultural transitions.

An Ecological and Conservation Perspective on Advances in the Applied Virology of Zoonoses

PubMed Central

Vandegrift, Kurt J.; Wale, Nina; Epstein, Jonathan H.

2011-01-01

The aim of this manuscript is to describe how modern advances in our knowledge of viruses and viral evolution can be applied to the fields of disease ecology and conservation. We review recent progress in virology and provide examples of how it is informing both empirical research in field ecology and applied conservation. We include a discussion of needed breakthroughs and ways to bridge communication gaps between the field and the lab. In an effort to foster this interdisciplinary effort, we have also included a table that lists the definitions of key terms. The importance of understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir hosts is emphasized as a tool to both assess risk factors for spillover and to test hypotheses related to treatment and/or intervention strategies. In conclusion, we highlight the need for smart surveillance, viral discovery efforts and predictive modeling. A shift towards a predictive approach is necessary in today’s globalized society because, as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic demonstrated, identification post-emergence is often too late to prevent global spread. Integrating molecular virology and ecological techniques will allow for earlier recognition of potentially dangerous pathogens, ideally before they jump from wildlife reservoirs into human or livestock populations and cause serious public health or conservation issues. PMID:21994738

Is the scaling of swim speed in sharks driven by metabolism?

PubMed Central

Jacoby, David M. P.; Siriwat, Penthai; Freeman, Robin; Carbone, Chris

2015-01-01

The movement rates of sharks are intrinsically linked to foraging ecology, predator–prey dynamics and wider ecosystem functioning in marine systems. During ram ventilation, however, shark movement rates are linked not only to ecological parameters, but also to physiology, as minimum speeds are required to provide sufficient water flow across the gills to maintain metabolism. We develop a geometric model predicting a positive scaling relationship between swim speeds in relation to body size and ultimately shark metabolism, taking into account estimates for the scaling of gill dimensions. Empirical data from 64 studies (26 species) were compiled to test our model while controlling for the influence of phylogenetic similarity between related species. Our model predictions were found to closely resemble the observed relationships from tracked sharks, providing a means to infer mobility in particularly intractable species. PMID:26631246

Using NEON Data to Test and Refine Conceptual and Numerical Models of Soil Biogeochemical and Microbial Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weintraub, S. R.; Stanish, L.; Ayers, E.

2017-12-01

Recent conceptual and numerical models have proposed new mechanisms that underpin key biogeochemical phenomena, including soil organic matter storage and ecosystem response to nitrogen deposition. These models seek to explicitly capture the ecological links among biota, especially microbes, and their physical and chemical environment to represent belowground pools and fluxes and how they respond to perturbation. While these models put forth exciting new concepts, their broad predictive abilities are unclear as some have been developed and tested against only small or regional datasets. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) presents new opportunities to test and validate these models with multi-site data that span wide climatic, edaphic, and ecological gradients. NEON is measuring surface soil biogeochemical pools and fluxes along with diversity, abundance, and functional potential of soil microbiota at 47 sites distributed across the United States. This includes co-located measurements of soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stable isotopes, net nitrogen mineralization and nitrification rates, soil moisture, pH, microbial biomass, and community composition via 16S and ITS rRNA sequencing and shotgun metagenomic analyses. Early NEON data demonstrates that these wide edaphic and climatic gradients are related to changes in microbial community structure and functional potential, as well as element pools and process rates. Going forward, NEON's suite of standardized soil data has the potential to advance our understanding of soil communities and processes by allowing us to test the predictions of new soil biogeochemical frameworks and models. Here, we highlight several recently developed models that are ripe for this kind of data validation, and discuss key insights that may result. Further, we explore synergies with other networks, such as (i)LTER and (i)CZO, which may increase our ability to advance the frontiers of soil biogeochemical modeling.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Association Between Air Temperature and Cancer Death Rates in Florida: An Ecological Study.

PubMed

Hart, John

2015-01-01

Proponents of global warming predict adverse events due to a slight warming of the planet in the last 100 years. This ecological study tests one of the possible arguments that might support the global warming theory - that it may increase cancer death rates. Thus, average daily air temperature is compared to cancer death rates at the county level in a U.S. state, while controlling for variables of smoking, race, and land elevation. The study revealed that lower cancer death rates were associated with warmer temperatures. Further study is indicated to verify these findings.

Early Childhood Household Smoke Exposure Predicts Less Task-Oriented Classroom Behavior at Age 10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pagani, Linda S.; Fitzpatrick, Caroline

2016-01-01

Secondhand tobacco smoke is considered a developmental neurotoxicant especially given underdeveloped vital systems in young children. An ecological test of its negative influence on brain development can be made by examining the prospective association between early childhood household smoke exposure and later classroom behavior. Using a…

Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

PubMed

Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to climate change. Range edge studies of ectothermic species that have annual life cycles, long time-series occurrence data, and associated temperature records (ideally at monthly resolutions) could be useful model systems for intraspecific tests of the universal ecological responses to climate change and for exploring interactive effects. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Revising the economic imperative for US STEM education.

PubMed

Donovan, Brian M; Moreno Mateos, David; Osborne, Jonathan F; Bisaccio, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Over the last decade macroeconomic studies have established a clear link between student achievement on science and math tests and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth, supporting the widely held belief that science, technology, engineering, and math(STEM) education are important factors in the production of economic prosperity. We critique studies that use science and math tests to predict GDP growth, arguing that estimates of the future economic value of STEM education involve substantial speculation because they ignore the impacts of economic growth on biodiversity and ecosystem functionality, which, in the long-term, limit the potential for future economic growth. Furthermore, we argue that such ecological impacts can be enabled by STEM education. Therefore, we contend that the real economic imperative for the STEM pipeline is not just raising standardized test scores, but also empowering students to assess, preserve, and restore ecosystems in order to reduce ecological degradation and increase economic welfare.

The relationships between floral traits and specificity of pollination systems in three Scandinavian plant communities.

PubMed

Lázaro, Amparo; Hegland, Stein Joar; Totland, Orjan

2008-08-01

The pollination syndrome hypothesis has provided a major conceptual framework for how plants and pollinators interact. However, the assumption of specialization in pollination systems and the reliability of floral traits in predicting the main pollinators have been questioned recently. In addition, the relationship between ecological and evolutionary specialization in pollination interactions is still poorly understood. We used data of 62 plant species from three communities across southern Norway to test: (1) the relationships between floral traits and the identity of pollinators, (2) the association between floral traits (evolutionary specialization) and ecological generalization, and (3) the consistency of both relationships across communities. Floral traits significantly affected the identity of pollinators in the three communities in a way consistent with the predictions derived from the pollination syndrome concept. However, hover flies and butterflies visited flowers with different shapes in different communities, which we mainly attribute to among-community variation in pollinator assemblages. Interestingly, ecological generalization depended more on the community-context (i.e. the plant and pollinator assemblages in the communities) than on specific floral traits. While open yellow and white flowers were the most generalist in two communities, they were the most specialist in the alpine community. Our results warn against the use of single measures of ecological generalization to question the pollination syndrome concept, and highlight the importance of community comparisons to assess the pollination syndromes, and to understand the relationships between ecological and evolutionary specialization in plant-pollinator interactions.

Molecular biomarkers for chronological age in animal ecology.

PubMed

Jarman, Simon N; Polanowski, Andrea M; Faux, Cassandra E; Robbins, Jooke; De Paoli-Iseppi, Ricardo; Bravington, Mark; Deagle, Bruce E

2015-10-01

The chronological age of an individual animal predicts many of its biological characteristics, and these in turn influence population-level ecological processes. Animal age information can therefore be valuable in ecological research, but many species have no external features that allow age to be reliably determined. Molecular age biomarkers provide a potential solution to this problem. Research in this area of molecular ecology has so far focused on a limited range of age biomarkers. The most commonly tested molecular age biomarker is change in average telomere length, which predicts age well in a small number of species and tissues, but performs poorly in many other situations. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression has recently been shown to cause age-related modifications to DNA and to cause changes in abundance of several RNA types throughout animal lifespans. Age biomarkers based on these epigenetic changes, and other new DNA-based assays, have already been applied to model organisms, humans and a limited number of wild animals. There is clear potential to apply these marker types more widely in ecological studies. For many species, these new approaches will produce age estimates where this was previously impractical. They will also enable age information to be gathered in cross-sectional studies and expand the range of demographic characteristics that can be quantified with molecular methods. We describe the range of molecular age biomarkers that have been investigated to date and suggest approaches for developing the newer marker types as age assays in nonmodel animal species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Work, family and life-course fit

PubMed Central

Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin; Huang, Qinlei

2008-01-01

This study moves from “work-family” to a multi-dimensional “life-course fit” construct (employees’ cognitive assessments of resources, resource deficits, and resource demands), using a combined work-family, demands-control and ecology of the life course framing. It examined (1) impacts of job and home ecological systems on fit dimensions, and (2) whether control over work time predicted and mediated life-course fit outcomes. Using cluster analysis of survey data on a sample of 917 white-collar employees from Best Buy headquarters, we identified four job ecologies (corresponding to the job demands-job control model) and five home ecologies (theorizing an analogous home demands-home control model). Job and home ecologies predicted fit dimensions in an additive, not interactive, fashion. Employees’ work-time control predicted every life-course fit dimension and partially mediated effects of job ecologies, organizational tenure, and job category. PMID:19430546

Modeling species distribution and change using random forest [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Jeffrey S. Evans; Melanie A. Murphy; Zachary A. Holden; Samuel A. Cushman

2011-01-01

Although inference is a critical component in ecological modeling, the balance between accurate predictions and inference is the ultimate goal in ecological studies (Peters 1991; De’ath 2007). Practical applications of ecology in conservation planning, ecosystem assessment, and bio-diversity are highly dependent on very accurate spatial predictions of...

Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

PubMed

Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

2012-12-01

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

The rise of novelty in ecosystems.

PubMed

Radeloff, Volker C; Williams, John W; Bateman, Brooke L; Burke, Kevin D; Carter, Sarah K; Childress, Evan S; Cromwell, Kara J; Gratton, Claudio; Hasley, Andrew O; Kraemer, Benjamin M; Latzka, Alexander W; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Meine, Curt D; Munoz, Samuel E; Neeson, Thomas M; Pidgeon, Anna M; Rissman, Adena R; Rivera, Ricardo J; Szymanski, Laura M; Usinowicz, Jacob

2015-12-01

Rapid and ongoing change creates novelty in ecosystems everywhere, both when comparing contemporary systems to their historical baselines, and predicted future systems to the present. However, the level of novelty varies greatly among places. Here we propose a formal and quantifiable definition of abiotic and biotic novelty in ecosystems, map abiotic novelty globally, and discuss the implications of novelty for the science of ecology and for biodiversity conservation. We define novelty as the degree of dissimilarity of a system, measured in one or more dimensions relative to a reference baseline, usually defined as either the present or a time window in the past. In this conceptualization, novelty varies in degree, it is multidimensional, can be measured, and requires a temporal and spatial reference. This definition moves beyond prior categorical definitions of novel ecosystems, and does not include human agency, self-perpetuation, or irreversibility as criteria. Our global assessment of novelty was based on abiotic factors (temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) plus human population, and shows that there are already large areas with high novelty today relative to the early 20th century, and that there will even be more such areas by 2050. Interestingly, the places that are most novel are often not the places where absolute changes are largest; highlighting that novelty is inherently different from change. For the ecological sciences, highly novel ecosystems present new opportunities to test ecological theories, but also challenge the predictive ability of ecological models and their validation. For biodiversity conservation, increasing novelty presents some opportunities, but largely challenges. Conservation action is necessary along the entire continuum of novelty, by redoubling efforts to protect areas where novelty is low, identifying conservation opportunities where novelty is high, developing flexible yet strong regulations and policies, and establishing long-term experiments to test management approaches. Meeting the challenge of novelty will require advances in the science of ecology, and new and creative. conservation approaches.

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

PubMed

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-30

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015-2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint

PubMed Central

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-01

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015–2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level. PMID:28146086

Competition for nutrients and light: testing advances in resource competition with a natural phytoplankton community.

PubMed

Burson, Amanda; Stomp, Maayke; Greenwell, Emma; Grosse, Julia; Huisman, Jef

2018-05-01

A key challenge in ecology is to understand how nutrients and light affect the biodiversity and community structure of phytoplankton and plant communities. According to resource competition models, ratios of limiting nutrients are major determinants of species composition. At high nutrient levels, however, species interactions may shift to competition for light, which might make nutrient ratios less relevant. The "nutrient-load hypothesis" merges these two perspectives, by extending the classic model of competition for two nutrients to include competition for light. Here, we test five key predictions of the nutrient-load hypothesis using multispecies competition experiments. A marine phytoplankton community sampled from the North Sea was inoculated in laboratory chemostats provided with different nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to induce either single resource limitation or co-limitation of N, P, and light. Four of the five predictions were validated by the experiments. In particular, different resource limitations favored the dominance of different species. Increasing nutrient loads caused changes in phytoplankton species composition, even if the N:P ratio of the nutrient loads remained constant, by shifting the species interactions from competition for nutrients to competition for light. In all treatments, small species became dominant whereas larger species were competitively excluded, supporting the common view that small cell size provides a competitive advantage under resource-limited conditions. Contrary to expectation, all treatments led to coexistence of diatoms, cyanobacteria and green algae, resulting in a higher diversity of species than predicted by theory. Because the coexisting species comprised three phyla with different photosynthetic pigments, we speculate that niche differentiation in the light spectrum might play a role. Our results show that mechanistic resource competition models that integrate nutrient-based and light-based approaches provide an important step forward to understand and predict how changing nutrient loads affect community composition. © 2018 The Authors Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.

Melting barriers to faunal exchange across ocean basins.

PubMed

McKeon, C Seabird; Weber, Michele X; Alter, S Elizabeth; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Crandall, Eric D; Barshis, Daniel J; Fechter-Leggett, Ethan D; Oleson, Kirsten L L

2016-02-01

Accelerated loss of sea ice in the Arctic is opening routes connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for longer periods each year. These changes may increase the ease and frequency with which marine birds and mammals move between the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Indeed, recent observations of birds and mammals suggest these movements have intensified in recent decades. Reconnection of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins will present both challenges to marine ecosystem conservation and an unprecedented opportunity to examine the ecological and evolutionary consequences of interoceanic faunal exchange in real time. To understand these changes and implement effective conservation of marine ecosystems, we need to further develop modeling efforts to predict the rate of dispersal and consequences of faunal exchange. These predictions can be tested by closely monitoring wildlife dispersal through the Arctic Ocean and using modern methods to explore the ecological and evolutionary consequences of these movements. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

More neighborhood retail associated with lower obesity among New York City public high school students.

PubMed

Bader, Michael D M; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Jack, Darby; Weiss, Christopher C; Richards, Catherine A; Quinn, James W; Lovasi, Gina S; Neckerman, Kathryn M; Rundle, Andrew G

2013-09-01

Policies target fast food outlets to curb adolescent obesity. We argue that researchers should examine the entire retail ecology of neighborhoods, not just fast food outlets. We examine the association between the neighborhood retail environment and obesity using Fitnessgram data collected from 94,348 New York City public high school students. In generalized hierarchical linear models, the number of fast food restaurants predicted lower odds of obesity for adolescents (OR:0.972 per establishment; CI:0.957-0.988). In a "placebo test" we found that banks--a measure of neighborhood retail ecology--also predicted lower obesity (OR:0.979 per bank; CI:0.962-0.994). Retail disinvestment might be associated with greater obesity; accordingly, public health research should study the influence of general retail disinvestment not just food-specific investment. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Weapon Carrying in Youth Attending Drop-in Centers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blumberg, Elaine J.; Liles, Sandy; Kelley, Norma J.; Hovell, Melbourne F.; Bousman, Chad A.; Shillington, Audrey M.; Ji, Ming; Clapp, John

2009-01-01

Objective: To test and compare 2 predictive models of weapon carrying in youth (n=308) recruited from 4 drop-in centers in San Diego and Imperial counties. Methods: Both models were based on the Behavioral Ecological Model (BEM). Results: The first and second models significantly explained 39% and 53% of the variance in weapon carrying,…

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Treesearch

J. Firn; J.L. Moore; A.S. MacDougall; E.T. Borer; E.W. Seabloom; J. HilleRisLambers; S. Harpole; E.E. Cleland; C.S. Brown; J.M.H. Knops; S.M. Prober; D.A. Pyke; K.A. Farrell; J.D. Bakker; L.R. O’Halloran; P.B. Adler; S.L. Collins; C.M. D’Antonio; M.J. Crawley; E.M. Wolkovich; K.J. La Pierre; B.A. Melbourne; Y. Hautier; J.W. Morgan; A.D.B. Leakey; A.D. Kay; R.L. McCulley; K.F. Davies; C.J. Stevens; C.J. Chu

2011-01-01

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at...

Predictors of Numeracy Performance in National Testing Programs: Insights from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carmichael, Colin; MacDonald, Amy; McFarland-Piazza, Laura

2014-01-01

This article is based on an exploratory study that examines factors which predict children's performance on the numeracy component of the Australian National Assessment Program--Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). Utilizing an ecological theoretical model, this study examines child, home and school variables which may enable or constrain NAPLAN…

Quantifying dispersal rates and distances in North American martens: a test of enriched isotope labeling

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; Winston P. Smith; Merav Ben-David

2012-01-01

Advances in the application of stable isotopes have allowed the quantitative evaluation of previously cryptic ecological processes. In particular, researchers have utilized the predictable spatial patterning in natural abundance of isotopes to better understand animal dispersal and migration. However, quantifying dispersal via natural abundance alone has proven to be...

Ecological release in lizard assemblages of neotropical savannas.

PubMed

Mesquita, Daniel Oliveira; Colli, Guarino Rinaldi; Vitt, Laurie J

2007-08-01

We compare lizard assemblages of Cerrado and Amazonian savannas to test the ecological release hypothesis, which predicts that niche dimensions and abundance should be greater in species inhabiting isolated habitat patches with low species richness (Amazonian savannas and isolated Cerrado patches) when compared with nonisolated areas in central Cerrado with greater species richness. We calculated microhabitat and diet niche breadths with data from 14 isolated Cerrado patches and Amazon savanna areas and six central Cerrado populations. Morphological data were compared using average Euclidean distances, and lizard abundance was estimated using the number of lizards captured in pitfall traps over an extended time period. We found no evidence of ecological release with respect to microhabitat use, suggesting that historical factors are better microhabitat predictors than ecological factors. However, data from individual stomachs indicate that ecological release occurs in these areas for one species (Tropidurus) but not others (Ameiva ameiva, Anolis, Cnemidophorus, and Micrablepharus), suggesting that evolutionary lineages respond differently to environmental pressures, with tropidurids being more affected by ecological factors than polychrotids, teiids, and gymnophthalmids. We found no evidence that ecological release occurs in these areas using morphological data. Based on abundance data, our results indicate that the ecological release (density compensation) hypothesis is not supported: lizard species are not more abundant in isolated areas than in nonisolated areas. The ecology of species is highly conservative, varying little from assemblage to assemblage. Nevertheless, increases in niche breadth for some species indicate that ecological release occurs as well.

Transferability of species distribution models: a functional habitat approach for two regionally threatened butterflies.

PubMed

Vanreusel, Wouter; Maes, Dirk; Van Dyck, Hans

2007-02-01

Numerous models for predicting species distribution have been developed for conservation purposes. Most of them make use of environmental data (e.g., climate, topography, land use) at a coarse grid resolution (often kilometres). Such approaches are useful for conservation policy issues including reserve-network selection. The efficiency of predictive models for species distribution is usually tested on the area for which they were developed. Although highly interesting from the point of view of conservation efficiency, transferability of such models to independent areas is still under debate. We tested the transferability of habitat-based predictive distribution models for two regionally threatened butterflies, the green hairstreak (Callophrys rubi) and the grayling (Hipparchia semele), within and among three nature reserves in northeastern Belgium. We built predictive models based on spatially detailed maps of area-wide distribution and density of ecological resources. We used resources directly related to ecological functions (host plants, nectar sources, shelter, microclimate) rather than environmental surrogate variables. We obtained models that performed well with few resource variables. All models were transferable--although to different degrees--among the independent areas within the same broad geographical region. We argue that habitat models based on essential functional resources could transfer better in space than models that use indirect environmental variables. Because functional variables can easily be interpreted and even be directly affected by terrain managers, these models can be useful tools to guide species-adapted reserve management.

The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

PubMed

Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Gross, Kevin; Kendig, Amy E; Lacroix, Christelle; Mitchell, Charles E; Mordecai, Erin A; Power, Alison G

2015-04-01

Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology. We use a two-pathogen susceptible-infected (SI) model to fill these gaps in the metacommunity approach; however, SI models can be intractable for examining species-diverse, spatially structured systems. By placing disease into a framework developed for community ecology, our synthesis highlights areas ripe for progress, including a theoretical framework that incorporates host dynamics, spatial structuring and evolutionary processes, as well as the data needed to test the predictions of such a model. Our synthesis points the way for this framework and demonstrates that a deeper understanding of pathogen community dynamics will emerge from approaches working at the interface of disease and community ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Interhost dispersal alters microbiome assembly and can overwhelm host innate immunity in an experimental zebrafish model.

PubMed

Burns, Adam R; Miller, Elizabeth; Agarwal, Meghna; Rolig, Annah S; Milligan-Myhre, Kathryn; Seredick, Steve; Guillemin, Karen; Bohannan, Brendan J M

2017-10-17

The diverse collections of microorganisms associated with humans and other animals, collectively referred to as their "microbiome," are critical for host health, but the mechanisms that govern their assembly are poorly understood. This has made it difficult to identify consistent host factors that explain variation in microbiomes across hosts, despite large-scale sampling efforts. While ecological theory predicts that the movement, or dispersal, of individuals can have profound and predictable consequences on community assembly, its role in the assembly of animal-associated microbiomes remains underexplored. Here, we show that dispersal of microorganisms among hosts can contribute substantially to microbiome variation, and is able to overwhelm the effects of individual host factors, in an experimental test of ecological theory. We manipulated dispersal among wild-type and immune-deficient myd88 knockout zebrafish and observed that interhost dispersal had a large effect on the diversity and composition of intestinal microbiomes. Interhost dispersal was strong enough to overwhelm the effects of host factors, largely eliminating differences between wild-type and immune-deficient hosts, regardless of whether dispersal occurred within or between genotypes, suggesting dispersal can independently alter the ecology of microbiomes. Our observations are consistent with a predictive model that assumes metacommunity dynamics and are likely mediated by dispersal-related microbial traits. These results illustrate the importance of microbial dispersal to animal microbiomes and motivate its integration into the study of host-microbe systems.

The Evolution of Energetic Scaling across the Vertebrate Tree of Life.

PubMed

Uyeda, Josef C; Pennell, Matthew W; Miller, Eliot T; Maia, Rafael; McClain, Craig R

2017-08-01

Metabolism is the link between ecology and physiology-it dictates the flow of energy through individuals and across trophic levels. Much of the predictive power of metabolic theories of ecology derives from the scaling relationship between organismal size and metabolic rate. There is growing evidence that this scaling relationship is not universal, but we have little knowledge of how it has evolved over macroevolutionary time. Here we develop a novel phylogenetic comparative method to investigate how often and in which clades the macroevolutionary dynamics of the metabolic scaling have changed. We find strong evidence that the metabolic scaling relationship has shifted multiple times across the vertebrate phylogeny. However, shifts are rare and otherwise strongly constrained. Importantly, both the estimated slope and intercept values vary widely across regimes, with slopes that spanned across theoretically predicted values such as 2/3 or 3/4. We further tested whether traits such as ecto-/endothermy, genome size, and quadratic curvature with body mass (i.e., energetic constraints at extreme body sizes) could explain the observed pattern of shifts. Though these factors help explain some of the variation in scaling parameters, much of the remaining variation remains elusive. Our results lay the groundwork for further exploration of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of major transitions in metabolic strategy and for harnessing this information to improve macroecological predictions.

In situ genetic association for serotiny, a fire-related trait, in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster).

PubMed

Budde, Katharina B; Heuertz, Myriam; Hernández-Serrano, Ana; Pausas, Juli G; Vendramin, Giovanni G; Verdú, Miguel; González-Martínez, Santiago C

2014-01-01

Wildfire is a major ecological driver of plant evolution. Understanding the genetic basis of plant adaptation to wildfire is crucial, because impending climate change will involve fire regime changes worldwide. We studied the molecular genetic basis of serotiny, a fire-related trait, in Mediterranean maritime pine using association genetics. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set was used to identify genotype : phenotype associations in situ in an unstructured natural population of maritime pine (eastern Iberian Peninsula) under a mixed-effects model framework. RR-BLUP was used to build predictive models for serotiny in this region. Model prediction power outside the focal region was tested using independent range-wide serotiny data. Seventeen SNPs were potentially associated with serotiny, explaining approximately 29% of the trait phenotypic variation in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Similar prediction power was found for nearby geographical regions from the same maternal lineage, but not for other genetic lineages. Association genetics for ecologically relevant traits evaluated in situ is an attractive approach for forest trees provided that traits are under strong genetic control and populations are unstructured, with large phenotypic variability. This will help to extend the research focus to ecological keystone non-model species in their natural environments, where polymorphisms acquired their adaptive value. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Coaching behaviors associated with changes in fear of failure: changes in self-talk and need satisfaction as potential mechanisms.

PubMed

Conroy, David E; Coatsworth, J Douglas

2007-04-01

Cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms may regulate relations between youth perceptions of interpersonal aspects of the social ecology and their fear-of-failure (FF) levels. Youth (N=165) registered for a summer swim league rated their fear of failure at the beginning, middle, and end of the season. Extensive model comparisons indicated that youths' end-of-season ratings of coach behaviors could be reduced to three factors (affiliation, control, blame). Perceived control and blame from coaches predicted residualized change in corresponding aspects of youths' self-talk, but only changes in self-blame positively predicted changes in FF levels during the season. Perceived affiliation from coaches predicted autonomy need satisfaction which, in turn, negatively predicted the rate of change in FF levels during the season. These findings indicate that (a) youth perceptions of coaches were directly and indirectly related to acute socialization of FF and (b) both cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms contributed to this socialization process. Further research is needed to test for developmental differences in these mechanisms to determine whether findings generalize to more heterogeneous and at-risk populations and to investigate other potential social-ecological influences on socialization.

Improving Ecological Forecasting: Data Assimilation Enhances the Ecological Forecast Horizon of a Complex Food Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massoud, E. C.; Huisman, J.; Benincà, E.; Bouten, W.; Vrugt, J. A.

2017-12-01

Species abundances in ecological communities can display chaotic non-equilibrium dynamics. A characteristic feature of chaotic systems is that long-term prediction of the system's trajectory is fundamentally impossible. How then should we make predictions for complex multi-species communities? We explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a long term experiment of a plankton community which displays chaotic dynamics. The results show that DA improves substantially the predictability and ecological forecast horizon of complex community dynamics. In addition, we show that DA helps provide guidance on measurement design, for instance on defining the frequency of observations. The study presented here is highly innovative, because DA methods at the current stage are almost unknown in ecology.

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex

1992-01-01

Detailed summaries of two NASA-funded research projects are provided. The first project was an ecological task analysis of the Star Cruiser model. Star Cruiser is a psychological model designed to test a subject's level of cognitive activity. Ecological task analysis is used as a framework to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The second project is presented in the form of a thesis for the Masters Degree. The thesis discusses the modeling of decision-making through the use of neural network and genetic-algorithm machine learning technologies.

Animal personality and state-behaviour feedbacks: a review and guide for empiricists.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Mathot, Kimberley J; Moirón, María; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Wolf, Max; Dingemanse, Niels J

2015-01-01

An exciting area in behavioural ecology focuses on understanding why animals exhibit consistent among-individual differences in behaviour (animal personalities). Animal personality has been proposed to emerge as an adaptation to individual differences in state variables, leading to the question of why individuals differ consistently in state. Recent theory emphasizes the role that positive feedbacks between state and behaviour can play in producing consistent among-individual covariance between state and behaviour, hence state-dependent personality. We review the role of feedbacks in recent models of adaptive personalities, and provide guidelines for empirical testing of model assumptions and predictions. We discuss the importance of the mediating effects of ecology on these feedbacks, and provide a roadmap for including state-behaviour feedbacks in behavioural ecology research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking removal targets to the ecological effects of invaders: a predictive model and field test.

PubMed

Green, Stephanie J; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Brooks, Annabelle M L; Akins, John L; Cooper, Andrew B; Miller, Skylar; Côté, Isabelle M

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (<6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (>15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by >50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Djursvoll, Per; Simaiakis, Stylianos M.

2016-07-01

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.

The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Hao Chen; Lijun Chen; Qinfeng Guo

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US...

How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.

PubMed

Connell, Sean D; Doubleday, Zoë A; Hamlyn, Sarah B; Foster, Nicole R; Harley, Christopher D G; Helmuth, Brian; Kelaher, Brendan P; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Sarà, Gianluca; Russell, Bayden D

2017-02-06

Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO 2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this calcifier was greater at vent sites (with near-future CO 2 levels). Furthermore, translocation experiments demonstrated that ocean acidification did not drive increases in gastropod abundance directly, but indirectly as a function of increased habitat and food (algal biomass). We conclude that the effect of ocean acidification on algae (primary producers) can have a strong, indirect positive influence on the abundance of some calcifying herbivores, which can overwhelm any direct negative effects. This finding points to the need to understand ecological processes that buffer the negative effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecology has contrasting effects on genetic variation within species versus rates of molecular evolution across species in water beetles.

PubMed

Fujisawa, Tomochika; Vogler, Alfried P; Barraclough, Timothy G

2015-01-22

Comparative analysis is a potentially powerful approach to study the effects of ecological traits on genetic variation and rate of evolution across species. However, the lack of suitable datasets means that comparative studies of correlates of genetic traits across an entire clade have been rare. Here, we use a large DNA-barcode dataset (5062 sequences) of water beetles to test the effects of species ecology and geographical distribution on genetic variation within species and rates of molecular evolution across species. We investigated species traits predicted to influence their genetic characteristics, such as surrogate measures of species population size, latitudinal distribution and habitat types, taking phylogeny into account. Genetic variation of cytochrome oxidase I in water beetles was positively correlated with occupancy (numbers of sites of species presence) and negatively with latitude, whereas substitution rates across species depended mainly on habitat types, and running water specialists had the highest rate. These results are consistent with theoretical predictions from nearly-neutral theories of evolution, and suggest that the comparative analysis using large databases can give insights into correlates of genetic variation and molecular evolution.

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Malaney, Jason L.; Payer, David C.; Cook, J.A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Pro-social behaviour of ants depends on their ecological niche-Rescue actions in species from tropical and temperate regions.

PubMed

Miler, Krzysztof; Yahya, Bakhtiar Effendi; Czarnoleski, Marcin

2017-11-01

Some ants display rescue behaviour, which is performed by nearby nestmates and directed at individuals in danger. Here, using several ant species, we demonstrate that rescue behaviour expression matches predicted occurrences based on certain aspects of species' ecological niches. Rescue occurred in sand-dwelling ants exposed both to co-occurring antlion larvae, representing the threat of being captured by a predator, and to nest cave-ins, representing the threat of being trapped in a collapsed nest chamber. Rescue also occurred in forest groundcover ants exposed to certain entrapment situations. However, rescue never occurred in species associated with open plains, which nest in hardened soils and forage largely on herbaceous plants, or in ants living in close mutualistic relationships with their host plants. In addition, because we tested each species in two types of tests, antlion larva capture tests and artificial entrapment tests, we highlight the importance of accounting for test context in studying rescue behaviour expression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using an Ecological Land Hierarchy to Predict Seasonal-Wetland Abundance in Upland Forests

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Richard Buech; Leanne Egeland

2003-01-01

Hierarchy theory, when applied to landscapes, predicts that broader-scale ecosystems constrain the development of finer-scale, nested ecosystems. This prediction finds application in hierarchical land classifications. Such classifications typically apply to physiognomically similar ecosystems, or ecological land units, e.g., a set of multi-scale forest ecosystems. We...

Estimation and Application of Ecological Memory Functions in Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Dawson, A.

2017-12-01

A common goal in quantitative ecology is the estimation or prediction of ecological processes as a function of explanatory variables (or covariates). Frequently, the ecological process of interest and associated covariates vary in time, space, or both. Theory indicates many ecological processes exhibit memory to local, past conditions. Despite such theoretical understanding, few methods exist to integrate observations from the recent past or within a local neighborhood as drivers of these processes. We build upon recent methodological advances in ecology and spatial statistics to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate so-called ecological memory functions; that is, weight-generating functions that specify the relative importance of local, past covariate observations to ecological processes. Memory functions are estimated using a set of basis functions in time and/or space, allowing for flexible ecological memory based on a reduced set of parameters. Ecological memory functions are entirely data driven under the Bayesian hierarchical framework—no a priori assumptions are made regarding functional forms. Memory function uncertainty follows directly from posterior distributions for model parameters allowing for tractable propagation of error to predictions of ecological processes. We apply the model framework to simulated spatio-temporal datasets generated using memory functions of varying complexity. The framework is also applied to estimate the ecological memory of annual boreal forest growth to local, past water availability. Consistent with ecological understanding of boreal forest growth dynamics, memory to past water availability peaks in the year previous to growth and slowly decays to zero in five to eight years. The Bayesian hierarchical framework has applicability to a broad range of ecosystems and processes allowing for increased understanding of ecosystem responses to local and past conditions and improved prediction of ecological processes.

Land use and the structure of western US stream invertebrate assemblages: Predictive models and ecological traits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, D.M.; Hawkins, C.P.

2008-01-01

Inferences drawn from regional bioassessments could be strengthened by integrating data from different monitoring programs. We combined data from the US Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and the US Environmental Protection Agency Wadeable Streams Assessment (WSA) to expand the scope of an existing River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS)-type predictive model and to assess the biological condition of streams across the western US in a variety of landuse classes. We used model-derived estimates of taxon-specific probabilities of capture and observed taxon occurrences to identify taxa that were absent from sites where they were predicted to occur (decreasers) and taxa that were present at sites where they were not predicted to occur (increasers). Integration of 87 NAWQA reference sites increased the scope of the existing WSA predictive model to include larger streams and later season sampling. Biological condition at 336 NAWQA test sites was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with basin land use and tended to be lower in basins with intensive landuse modification (e.g., mixed, urban, and agricultural basins) than in basins with relatively undisturbed land use (e.g., forested basins). Of the 437 taxa observed among reference and test sites, 180 (41%) were increasers or decreasers. In general, decreasers had a different set of ecological traits (functional traits or tolerance values) than did increasers. We could predict whether a taxon was a decreaser or an increaser based on just a few traits, e.g., desiccation resistance, timing of larval development, habit, and thermal preference, but we were unable to predict the type of basin land use from trait states present in invertebrate assemblages. Refined characterization of traits might be required before bioassessment data can be used routinely to aid in the diagnoses of the causes of biological impairment. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Researchers and natural resource managers need predictions of how multiple global changes (e.g., climate change, rising levels of air pollutants, exotic invasions) will affect landscape composition and ecosystem function. Ecological predictive models used for this purpose are constructed using either a mechanistic (process-based) or a phenomenological (empirical)...

Interactions between plants and primates shape community diversity in a rainforest in Madagascar.

PubMed

Herrera, James P

2016-07-01

Models of ecological community assembly predict how communities of interacting organisms may be shaped by abiotic and biotic factors. Competition and environmental filtering are the predominant factors hypothesized to explain community assembly. This study tested the effects of habitat, phylogenetic and phenotypic trait predictors on species co-occurrence patterns and abundances, with the endemic primates of Madagascar as an empirical system. The abundance of 11 primate species was estimated along gradients of elevation, food resource abundance and anthropogenic habitat disturbance at local scales in south-east Madagascar. Community composition was compared to null models to test for phylogenetic and functional structure, and the effects of phylogenetic relatedness of co-occurring species, their trait similarity and environmental variables on species' abundances were tested using mixed models and quantile regressions. Resource abundance was the strongest predictor of community structure. Where food tree abundance was high, closely related species with similar traits dominated communities. High-elevation communities with lower food tree abundance consisted of species that were distantly related and had divergent traits. Closely related species had dissimilar abundances where they co-occurred, partially driven by trait dissimilarity, indicating character displacement. By integrating local-scale variation in primate community composition, evolutionary relatedness and functional diversity, this study found strong evidence that community assembly in this system can be explained by competition and character displacement along ecological gradients. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Space-for-time substitution in predicting the state of picoplankton and nanoplankton in a changing Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, William K. W.; Carmack, Eddy C.; McLaughlin, Fiona A.; Nelson, R. John; Williams, William J.

2013-10-01

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly but there are no long-term time series observations on the state of the phytoplankton community that could allow a link to be made from physical/chemical pressures to the impact on marine ecosystems. Here, we test the idea that space-for-time (SFT) substitution might predict temporal change in the Canada Basin premised on differences in the present state of phytoplankton in other geographic zones, specifically the ratio in the abundance of picophytoplankton to nanophytoplankton (Pico:Nano). We compared the change in Pico:Nano observed in the Canada Basin from 2004 to 2012 to the different average states of this ratio in 26 other ocean ecological regions. Our results show that as upper ocean nitrate concentration changed in the Canada Basin from year to year, the concomitant change in Pico:Nano was statistically commensurate with the difference that this ratio exhibits between Longhurst ecological provinces in relation to nitrate concentration. Lower average concentration of nitrate in the upper water column is associated with a higher value of Pico:Nano, a result consistent with resource control of phytoplankton size structure in the ocean. We suggest that SFT substitution allows an explanation of temporal progression from spatial pattern as a test of mechanism, but such statistical prediction is not necessarily a projection of future states.

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.

2018-04-10

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration.

PubMed

Stegen, James C

2018-01-01

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modeling frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. We can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

The lepidoptera as predictable communities of herbivores: a test of niche assembly using the moth communities of Morgan-Monroe State Forest

Treesearch

Keith S. Summerville; Michael R. Saunders; Jamie L. Lane

2013-01-01

The response of forest insect communities to disturbances such as timber harvest likely will depend on the underlying ecological assembly rules that affect community structure. Two competing hypotheses are niche assembly, which seeks to demonstrate significant species-environment correlations, and dispersal-assembly, which seeks to demonstrate spatial autocorrelation...

Simulation of quaking aspen potential fire behavior in Northern Utah, USA

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; A. Joshua Leffler

2014-01-01

Current understanding of aspen fire ecology in western North America includes the paradoxical characterization that aspen-dominated stands, although often regenerated following fire, are “fire-proof”. We tested this idea by predicting potential fire behavior across a gradient of aspen dominance in northern Utah using the Forest Vegetation Simulator and the Fire and...

Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect.

PubMed

Borregaard, Michael K; Amorim, Isabel R; Borges, Paulo A V; Cabral, Juliano S; Fernández-Palacios, José M; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J; Olesen, Jens M; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Triantis, Konstantinos A; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J

2017-05-01

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non-equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological-evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space-for-time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local-scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non-native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites

PubMed Central

Karl, Jason W.

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral ‘fingerprint’ of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches. PMID:28414731

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites.

PubMed

Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral 'fingerprint' of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches.

Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Paul C.; Klaver, Robert W.; Brennan, Angela; Creel, Scott; Beckmann, Jon P.; Higgs, Megan D.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

2013-01-01

Abstract. It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (2) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9–2200 km2) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model’s resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model predictions as explanatory or predictor variables.

AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

PubMed

Chesson, Peter

2017-05-01

The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

Toward a community ecology of landscapes: predicting multiple predator-prey interactions across geographic space.

PubMed

Schmitz, Oswald J; Miller, Jennifer R B; Trainor, Anne M; Abrahms, Briana

2017-09-01

Community ecology was traditionally an integrative science devoted to studying interactions between species and their abiotic environments in order to predict species' geographic distributions and abundances. Yet for philosophical and methodological reasons, it has become divided into two enterprises: one devoted to local experimentation on species interactions to predict community dynamics; the other devoted to statistical analyses of abiotic and biotic information to describe geographic distribution. Our goal here is to instigate thinking about ways to reconnect the two enterprises and thereby return to a tradition to do integrative science. We focus specifically on the community ecology of predators and prey, which is ripe for integration. This is because there is active, simultaneous interest in experimentally resolving the nature and strength of predator-prey interactions as well as explaining patterns across landscapes and seascapes. We begin by describing a conceptual theory rooted in classical analyses of non-spatial food web modules used to predict species interactions. We show how such modules can be extended to consideration of spatial context using the concept of habitat domain. Habitat domain describes the spatial extent of habitat space that predators and prey use while foraging, which differs from home range, the spatial extent used by an animal to meet all of its daily needs. This conceptual theory can be used to predict how different spatial relations of predators and prey could lead to different emergent multiple predator-prey interactions such as whether predator consumptive or non-consumptive effects should dominate, and whether intraguild predation, predator interference or predator complementarity are expected. We then review the literature on studies of large predator-prey interactions that make conclusions about the nature of multiple predator-prey interactions. This analysis reveals that while many studies provide sufficient information about predator or prey spatial locations, and thus meet necessary conditions of the habitat domain conceptual theory for drawing conclusions about the nature of the predator-prey interactions, several studies do not. We therefore elaborate how modern technology and statistical approaches for animal movement analysis could be used to test the conceptual theory, using experimental or quasi-experimental analyses at landscape scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Building spatially-explicit model predictions for ecological condition of streams in the Pacific Northwest: An assessment of landscape variables, models, endpoints and prediction scale

EPA Science Inventory

While large-scale, randomized surveys estimate the percentage of a region’s streams in poor ecological condition, identifying particular stream reaches or watersheds in poor condition is an equally important goal for monitoring and management. We built predictive models of strea...

Geographic variation in advertisement calls of a Microhylid frog - testing the role of drift and ecology.

PubMed

Lee, Ko-Huan; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Lin, Yen-Po; Lin, Si-Min

2016-05-01

Acoustic signals for mating are important traits that could drive population differentiation and speciation. Ecology may play a role in acoustic divergence through direct selection (e.g., local adaptation to abiotic environment), constraint of correlated traits (e.g., acoustic traits linked to another trait under selection), and/or interspecific competition (e.g., character displacement). However, genetic drift alone can also drive acoustic divergence. It is not always easy to differentiate the role of ecology versus drift in acoustic divergence. In this study, we tested the role of ecology and drift in shaping geographic variation in the advertisement calls of Microhyla fissipes. We examined three predictions based on ecological processes: (1) the correlation between temperature and call properties across M. fissipes populations; (2) the correlation between call properties and body size across M. fissipes populations; and (3) reproductive character displacement (RCD) in call properties between M. fissipes populations that are sympatric with and allopatric to a congener M. heymonsi. To test genetic drift, we examined correlations among call divergence, geographic distance, and genetic distance across M. fissipes populations. We recorded the advertisement calls from 11 populations of M. fissipes in Taiwan, five of which are sympatrically distributed with M. heymonsi. We found geographic variation in both temporal and spectral properties of the advertisement calls of M. fissipes. However, the call properties were not correlated with local temperature or the callers' body size. Furthermore, we did not detect RCD. By contrast, call divergence, geographic distance, and genetic distance between M. fissipes populations were all positively correlated. The comparisons between phenotypic Q st (P st) and F st values did not show significant differences, suggesting a role of drift. We concluded that genetic drift, rather than ecological processes, is the more likely driver for the geographic variation in the advertisement calls of M. fissipes.

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Quan; Walters, Katie D.

2015-01-01

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Can law foster social-ecological resilience?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2013-01-01

Law plays an essential role in shaping natural resource and environmental policy, but unfortunately, many environmental laws were developed around the prevailing scientific understanding that there was a “balance of nature” that could be managed and sustained. This view assumes that natural resource managers have the capacity to predict the behavior of ecological systems, know what its important functional components are, and successfully predict the outcome of management interventions. This paper takes on this problem by summarizing and synthesizing the contributions to this Special Feature (Law and Social-Ecological Resilience, Part I: Contributions from Resilience 2011), focusing on the interaction of law and social-ecological resilience, and then offering recommendations for the integration of law and social-ecological resilience.

Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Crall, A.W.; Norman, J. B.; Barnett, D.T.

2008-01-01

Predicting suitable habitat and the potential distribution of invasive species is a high priority for resource managers and systems ecologists. Most models are designed to identify habitat characteristics that define the ecological niche of a species with little consideration to individual species' traits. We tested five commonly used modelling methods on two invasive plant species, the habitat generalist Bromus tectorum and habitat specialist Tamarix chinensis, to compare model performances, evaluate predictability, and relate results to distribution traits associated with each species. Most of the tested models performed similarly for each species; however, the generalist species proved to be more difficult to predict than the specialist species. The highest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values with independent validation data sets of B. tectorum and T. chinensis was 0.503 and 0.885, respectively. Similarly, a confusion matrix for B. tectorum had the highest overall accuracy of 55%, while the overall accuracy for T. chinensis was 85%. Models for the generalist species had varying performances, poor evaluations, and inconsistent results. This may be a result of a generalist's capability to persist in a wide range of environmental conditions that are not easily defined by the data, independent variables or model design. Models for the specialist species had consistently strong performances, high evaluations, and similar results among different model applications. This is likely a consequence of the specialist's requirement for explicit environmental resources and ecological barriers that are easily defined by predictive models. Although defining new invaders as generalist or specialist species can be challenging, model performances and evaluations may provide valuable information on a species' potential invasiveness.

Social Ecology of Child Soldiers: Child, Family, and Community Determinants of Mental Health, Psychosocial Wellbeing, and Reintegration in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kohrt, Brandon A.; Jordans, Mark J.D.; Tol, Wietse A.; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2013-01-01

This study employs social ecology to evaluate psychosocial wellbeing in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of function impairment and reintegration. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted fewer reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well-suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels, based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors. PMID:21088102

The redoubtable ecological periodic table

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological periodic tables are repositories of reliable information on quantitative, predictably recurring (periodic) habitat–community patterns and their uncertainty, scaling and transferability. Their reliability derives from their grounding in sound ecological principle...

The importance of motivation, weapons, and foul odors in driving encounter competition in carnivores.

PubMed

Allen, Maximilian L; Wilmers, Christopher C; Elbroch, L Mark; Golla, Julie M; Wittmer, Heiko U

2016-08-01

Encounter competition is interference competition in which animals directly contend for resources. Ecological theory predicts the trait that determines the resource holding potential (RHP), and hence the winner of encounter competition, is most often body size or mass. The difficulties of observing encounter competition in complex organisms in natural environments, however, has limited opportunities to test this theory across diverse species. We studied the outcome of encounter competition contests among mesocarnivores at deer carcasses in California to determine the most important variables for winning these contests. We found some support for current theory in that body mass is important in determining the winner of encounter competition, but we found that other factors including hunger and species-specific traits were also important. In particular, our top models were "strength and hunger" and "size and hunger," with models emphasizing the complexity of variables influencing outcomes of encounter competition. In addition, our wins above predicted (WAP) statistic suggests that an important aspect that determines the winner of encounter competition is species-specific advantages that increase their RHP, as bobcats (Lynx rufus) and spotted skunks (Spilogale gracilis) won more often than predicted based on mass. In complex organisms, such as mesocarnivores, species-specific adaptations, including strategic behaviors, aggressiveness, and weapons, contribute to competitive advantages and may allow certain species to take control or defend resources better than others. Our results help explain how interspecific competition shapes the occurrence patterns of species in ecological communities. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Personalities influence spatial responses to environmental fluctuations in wild fish.

PubMed

Villegas-Ríos, David; Réale, Denis; Freitas, Carla; Moland, Even; Olsen, Esben M

2018-06-11

1.Although growing evidence supports the idea that animal personality can explain plasticity in response to changes in the social environment, it remains to be tested whether it can explain spatial responses of individuals in the face of natural environmental fluctuations. This is a major challenge in ecology and evolution as spatial dynamics link individual- and population-level processes. 2.In this study we investigated the potential of individual personalities to predict differences in fish behaviour in the wild. Specifically, our goal was to answer if individual differences in plasticity of space use to sea surface temperature could be explained by differences in personality along the reactive-proactive axis. 3.To address this question we first conducted repeated standard laboratory assays (i.e. open-field test, novel object test and mirror-stimulation test) to assess the personality type of 76 wild-caught Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Next, we released the fish back into the sea and monitored their spatial behaviour over large temporal (16 months) and spatial (a whole fjord) scales, using high-resolution acoustic tracking. 4. We demonstrate that 1) cod personality traits are structured into a proactive-reactive syndrome (proactive fish being more bold, exploratory and aggressive), 2) mean depth use of individuals is mainly driven by sea temperature and 3) personality is a significant predictor of home range changes in the wild, where reactive, but not proactive, individuals reduced their home range as sea temperature increased. 5. These findings expand our understanding of the ecological consequences of animal personality and the mechanisms shaping spatial dynamics of animals in nature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, M.; Wootton, J.T.; Doak, D.F.; Emmerson, M.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (??25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cryptic diversity in a fig wasp community-morphologically differentiated species are sympatric but cryptic species are parapatric.

PubMed

Darwell, C T; Cook, J M

2017-02-01

A key debate in ecology centres on the relative importance of niche and neutral processes in determining patterns of community assembly with particular focus on whether ecologically similar species with similar functional traits are able to coexist. Meanwhile, molecular studies are increasingly revealing morphologically indistinguishable cryptic species with presumably similar ecological roles. Determining the geographic distribution of such cryptic species provides opportunities to contrast predictions of niche vs. neutral models. Discovery of sympatric cryptic species increases alpha diversity and supports neutral models, while documentation of allopatric/parapatric cryptic species increases beta diversity and supports niche models. We tested these predictions using morphological and molecular data, coupled with environmental niche modelling analyses, of a fig wasp community along its 2700-km latitudinal range. Molecular methods increased previous species diversity estimates from eight to eleven species, revealing morphologically cryptic species in each of the four wasp genera studied. Congeneric species pairs that were differentiated by a key morphological functional trait (ovipositor length) coexisted sympatrically over large areas. In contrast, morphologically similar species, with similar ovipositor lengths, typically showed parapatric ranges with very little overlap. Despite parapatric ranges, environmental niche models of cryptic congeneric pairs indicate large regions of potential sympatry, suggesting that competitive processes are important in determining the distributions of ecologically similar species. Niche processes appear to structure this insect community, and cryptic diversity may typically contribute mostly to beta rather than alpha diversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2011-01-01

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

2003-08-01

The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

A test of reproductive power in snakes.

PubMed

Boback, Scott M; Guyer, Craig

2008-05-01

Reproductive power is a contentious concept among ecologists, and the model has been criticized on theoretical and empirical grounds. Despite these criticisms, the model has successfully predicted the modal (optimal) size in three large taxonomic groups and the shape of the body size distribution in two of these groups. We tested the reproductive power model on snakes, a group that differs markedly in physiology, foraging ecology, and body shape from the endothermic groups upon which the model was derived. Using detailed field data from the published literature, snake-specific constants associated with reproductive power were determined using allometric relationships of energy invested annually in egg production and population productivity. The resultant model accurately predicted the mode and left side of the size distribution for snakes but failed to predict the right side of that distribution. If the model correctly describes what is possible in snakes, observed size diversity is limited, especially in the largest size classes.

Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Mary I.; Piehler, Michael F.; Leech, Dina M.; Anton, Andrea; Bruno, John F.

2009-01-01

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change. PMID:19707271

The evolution of sex roles in birds is related to adult sex ratio.

PubMed

Liker, András; Freckleton, Robert P; Székely, Tamás

2013-01-01

Sex-role reversal represents a formidable challenge for evolutionary biologists, since it is not clear which ecological, life-history or social factors facilitated conventional sex roles (female care and male-male competition for mates) to be reversed (male care and female-female competition). Classic theories suggested ecological or life-history predictors of role reversal, but most studies failed to support these hypotheses. Recent theory however predicts that sex-role reversal should be driven by male-biased adult sex ratio (ASR). Here we test this prediction for the first time using phylogenetic comparative analyses. Consistent with theory, both mating system and parental care are strongly related to ASR in shorebirds: conventional sex roles are exhibited by species with female-biased ASR, whereas sex-role reversal is associated with male-biased ASR. These results suggest that social environment has a strong influence on breeding systems and therefore revealing the causes of ASR variation in wild populations is essential for understanding sex role evolution.

Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

2015-05-01

The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

PubMed

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pennekamp, Frank; Adamson, Matthew; Petchey, Owen L; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Aguiar, Maira; Kooi, Bob W.; Botkin, Daniel B.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2017-01-01

The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

PubMed

Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

2014-07-01

Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population variance. The nature of this variance is only partially consistent with current life-history theory and stimulates expansions of such theory to accommodate complexities in adaptive life history. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Extrapolating non-target risk of Bt crops from laboratory to field.

PubMed

Duan, Jian J; Lundgren, Jonathan G; Naranjo, Steve; Marvier, Michelle

2010-02-23

The tiered approach to assessing ecological risk of insect-resistant transgenic crops assumes that lower tier laboratory studies, which expose surrogate non-target organisms to high doses of insecticidal proteins, can detect harmful effects that might be manifested in the field. To test this assumption, we performed meta-analyses comparing results for non-target invertebrates exposed to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry proteins in laboratory studies with results derived from independent field studies examining effects on the abundance of non-target invertebrates. For Lepidopteran-active Cry proteins, laboratory studies correctly predicted the reduced field abundance of non-target Lepidoptera. However, laboratory studies incorporating tri-trophic interactions of Bt plants, herbivores and parasitoids were better correlated with the decreased field abundance of parasitoids than were direct-exposure assays. For predators, laboratory tri-trophic studies predicted reduced abundances that were not realized in field studies and thus overestimated ecological risk. Exposure to Coleopteran-active Cry proteins did not significantly reduce the laboratory survival or field abundance of any functional group examined. Our findings support the assumption that laboratory studies of transgenic insecticidal crops show effects that are either consistent with, or more conservative than, those found in field studies, with the important caveat that laboratory studies should explore all ecologically relevant routes of exposure.

The study of aquatic macrophytes in Neotropics: a scientometrical view of the main trends and gaps.

PubMed

Padial, A A; Bini, L M; Thomaz, S M

2008-11-01

Aquatic macrophytes comprises a diverse group of organisms including angiosperms, ferns, mosses, liverworts and some macroalgae that occur in seasonally or permanently wet environments. Among other implications, aquatic macrophytes are highly productive and with an important structuring role on aquatic environments. Ecological studies involving aquatic plants substantially increased in the last years. However, a precise view of researches devoted to aquatic macrophytes in Neotropics is necessary to reach a reliable evaluation of the scientific production. In the current study, we performed a scientometrics analysis of the scientific production devoted to Neotropical macrophytes in an attempt to find the main trends and gaps of researches concerning this group. The publication devoted to macrophytes in Neotropics increased conspicuously in the last two decades. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Chile were the most productive among Neotropical countries. Our analyses showed that the studies dealt mostly with the influences of aquatic macrophytes on organisms and abiotic features. Studies with a predictive approach or aiming to test ecological hypothesis are scarce. In addition, researches aiming to describe unknown species are still necessary. This is essential to support conservation efforts and to subsidize further investigations testing ecological hypotheses.

Specialization and generalization in the diversification of phytophagous insects: tests of the musical chairs and oscillation hypotheses

PubMed Central

Hardy, Nate B.; Otto, Sarah P.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary biologists have often assumed that ecological generalism comes at the expense of less intense exploitation of specific resources and that this trade-off will promote the evolution of ecologically specialized daughter species. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with butterflies as a model system, we test hypotheses that incorporate changes in niche breadth and location into explanations of the taxonomic diversification of insect herbivores. Specifically, we compare the oscillation hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant generalists giving rise to specialist daughter species, to the musical chairs hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant switching, without changes in niche breadth. Contrary to the predictions of the oscillation hypothesis, we recover a negative relationship between host-plant breadth and diversification rate and find that changes in host breadth are seldom coupled to speciation events. By contrast, we present evidence for a positive relationship between rates of host switching and butterfly diversification, consonant with the musical chairs hypothesis. These results suggest that the costs of trophic generalism in plant-feeding insects may have been overvalued and that transitions from generalists to ecological specialists may not be an important driver of speciation in general. PMID:25274368

Ecologically-focused Calibration of Hydrological Models for Environmental Flow Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, S. K.; Bledsoe, B. P.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic alteration resulting from watershed urbanization is a common cause of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Developing environmental flow criteria for urbanizing watersheds requires quantitative flow-ecology relationships that describe biological responses to streamflow alteration. Ideally, gaged flow data are used to develop flow-ecology relationships; however, biological monitoring sites are frequently ungaged. For these ungaged locations, hydrologic models must be used to predict streamflow characteristics through calibration and testing at gaged sites, followed by extrapolation to ungaged sites. Physically-based modeling of rainfall-runoff response has frequently utilized "best overall fit" calibration criteria, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), that do not necessarily focus on specific aspects of the flow regime relevant to biota of interest. This study investigates the utility of employing flow characteristics known a priori to influence regional biological endpoints as "ecologically-focused" calibration criteria compared to traditional, "best overall fit" criteria. For this study, 19 continuous HEC-HMS 4.0 models were created in coastal southern California and calibrated to hourly USGS streamflow gages with nearby biological monitoring sites using one "best overall fit" and three "ecologically-focused" criteria: NSE, Richards-Baker Flashiness Index (RBI), percent of time when the flow is < 1 cfs (%<1), and a Combined Calibration (RBI and %<1). Calibrated models were compared using calibration accuracy, environmental flow metric reproducibility, and the strength of flow-ecology relationships. Results indicate that "ecologically-focused" criteria can be calibrated with high accuracy and may provide stronger flow-ecology relationships than "best overall fit" criteria, especially when multiple "ecologically-focused" criteria are used in concert, despite inabilities to accurately reproduce additional types of ecological flow metrics to which the models are not explicitly calibrated.

Effects of antibacterial agents, levofloxacin and clarithromycin, on aquatic organisms.

PubMed

Yamashita, N; Yasojima, M; Nakada, N; Miyajima, K; Komori, K; Suzuki, Y; Tanaka, H

2006-01-01

Contamination of surface waters by pharmaceutical chemicals is an emerging environmental problem. This study evaluated the toxic effects of the antibacterial agents levofloxacin (LVFX) and clarithromycin (CAM), which are widely used in Japan, on aquatic organisms. Ecotoxicity tests using a bacterium, alga and crustacean were conducted. Microtox test using a marine fluorescent bacterium showed that LVFX and CAM have no acute toxicity to the bacterium. From the results of the Daphnia immobilisation test, LVFX and CAM did not show acute toxicity to the crustacean. Meanwhile, an algal growth inhibition test revealed that LVFX and CAM have high toxicity to the microalga. The phytotoxicity of CAM was about 100-fold higher than that of LVFX from a comparison of EC50 (median effective concentration) value. From the Daphnia reproduction test, LVFX and CAM also showed chronic toxicity to the crustacean. Concentrations of LVFX and CAM in the aquatic environment were compared with PNEC (predicted no effect concentration) to evaluate the ecological risk. As a result, the ecological risk of LVFX is considered to be low, but that of CAM is higher, suggesting that CAM discharged into an aquatic environment after therapeutic use may affect organisms in the aquatic environment.

Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

A STATISTICAL MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION, QUANTIFICATION, AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS

EPA Science Inventory

This study will provide a general methodology for integrating threshold information from multiple species ecological metrics, allow for prediction of changes of alternative stable states, and provide a risk assessment tool that can be applied to adaptive management. The integr...

The Bayesian group lasso for confounded spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models for spatial processes are widely used in applied statistics. In many applications of the spatial generalized linear mixed model (SGLMM), the goal is to obtain inference about regression coefficients while achieving optimal predictive ability. When implementing the SGLMM, multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effects can make computation challenging and influence inference. We present a Bayesian group lasso prior with a single tuning parameter that can be chosen to optimize predictive ability of the SGLMM and jointly regularize the regression coefficients and spatial random effect. We implement the group lasso SGLMM using efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and demonstrate how multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effect can be monitored as a derived quantity. To test our method, we compared several parameterizations of the SGLMM using simulated data and two examples from plant ecology and disease ecology. In all examples, problematic levels multicollinearity occurred and influenced sampling efficiency and inference. We found that the group lasso prior resulted in roughly twice the effective sample size for MCMC samples of regression coefficients and can have higher and less variable predictive accuracy based on out-of-sample data when compared to the standard SGLMM.

Extrinsic and Intrinsic Responses to Environmental Change: Insights from Terrestrial Paleoecological Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddon, A. W. R.; Mackay, A. W.

2015-12-01

Current understanding of ecological behaviour indicates that systems can experience sudden and abrupt changes in state, driven either by a large external change in environmental conditions (extrinsically forced), or the result of a set local feedbacks and site-specific interactions (intrinsically mediated responses). Responses mediated by intrinsic processes are notoriously diffi- cult to predict, they can occur as slow environmental variables gradually erode the resilience of the system eventually resulting in threshold transitions between alternative stable states. Finding ways to identify, model and predict such complex ecosystem behavior has been identified as a priority research challenge for both ecology and paleoecology. The paleoecological record can play a role in understanding the processes behind abrupt ecological change because it enables the reconstruction of processes occurring over decadal-centennial timescales or longer. Therefore, paleoecological data can be used to identify the existence of ecological thresholds and to investigate the environmental processes that can lead to loss of resilience and abrupt transitions between alternate states. In addition, incidences of abrupt vegetation changes in the past can serve as palaeoecological model systems; analogues of abrupt dynamics which can be used to test theories surrounding ecological responses to climate change. Here, I present examples from a range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holocene environmental changes from a coastal lagoon in the Galapagos Islands; Northern European vegetation changes since the last deglaciation; the North American hemlock decline) demonstrating evidence of abrupt ecosystem change. For each system I present a set of statistical techniques tailored to distin- guish between extrinsic versus intrinsically mediated ecological responses. Examples are provided from both single sites (i.e. landscape scale) and multiple sites (regional-continental scale). These techniques provide a useful way to identify when and where intrinsically mediated responses to environmental change occurs; the next challenge is to understand and quantify the processes that underlie these intrinsic responses.

Barriers to adaptive reasoning in community ecology.

PubMed

McLachlan, Athol J; Ladle, Richard J

2011-08-01

Recent high-profile calls for a more trait-focused approach to community ecology have the potential to open up novel research areas, generate new insights and to transform community ecology into a more predictive science. However, a renewed emphasis on function and phenotype also requires a fundamental shift in approach and research philosophy within community ecology to more fully embrace evolutionary reasoning. Such a subject-wise transformation will be difficult due to at least four factors: (1) the historical development of the academic discipline of ecology and its roots as a descriptive science; (2) the dominating role of the ecosystem concept in the driving of contemporary ecological thought; (3) the practical difficulties associated with defining and identifying (phenotypic) adaptations, and; (4) scaling effects in ecology; the difficulty of teasing apart the overlapping and shifting hierarchical processes that generate the observed environment-trait correlations in nature. We argue that the ability to predict future ecological conditions through a sufficient understanding of ecological processes will not be achieved without the placement of the concept of adaptation at the centre of ecology, with influence radiating outwards through all the related (and rapidly specializing) sub-disciplines. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Some considerations on the use of ecological models to predict species' geographic distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.

2001-01-01

Peterson (2001) used Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) models to predict distribution patterns from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Evaluations of these models should consider inherent limitations of BBS data: (1) BBS methods may not sample species and habitats equally; (2) using BBS data for both model development and testing may overlook poor fit of some models; and (3) BBS data may not provide the desired spatial resolution or capture temporal changes in species distributions. The predictive value of GARP models requires additional study, especially comparisons with distribution patterns from independent data sets. When employed at appropriate temporal and geographic scales, GARP models show considerable promise for conservation biology applications but provide limited inferences concerning processes responsible for the observed patterns.

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

Spatial patterns of the frog Oophaga pumilio in a plantation system are consistent with conspecific attraction.

PubMed

Folt, Brian; Donnelly, Maureen A; Guyer, Craig

2018-03-01

The conspecific attraction hypothesis predicts that individuals are attracted to conspecifics because conspecifics may be cues to quality habitat and/or colonists may benefit from living in aggregations. Poison frogs (Dendrobatidae) are aposematic, territorial, and visually oriented-three characteristics which make dendrobatids an appropriate model to test for conspecific attraction. In this study, we tested this hypothesis using an extensive mark-recapture dataset of the strawberry poison frog ( Oophaga pumilio ) from La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Data were collected from replicate populations in a relatively homogenous Theobroma cacao plantation, which provided a unique opportunity to test how conspecifics influence the spatial ecology of migrants in a controlled habitat with homogenous structure. We predicted that (1) individuals entering a population would aggregate with resident adults, (2) migrants would share sites with residents at a greater frequency than expected by chance, and (3) migrant home ranges would have shorter nearest-neighbor distances (NND) to residents than expected by chance. The results were consistent with these three predictions: Relative to random simulations, we observed significant aggregation, home-range overlap, and NND distribution functions in four, five, and six, respectively, of the six migrant-resident groups analyzed. Conspecific attraction may benefit migrant O. pumilio by providing cues to suitable home sites and/or increasing the potential for social interactions with conspecifics; if true, these benefits should outweigh the negative effects of other factors associated with aggregation. The observed aggregation between migrant and resident O. pumilio is consistent with conspecific attraction in dendrobatid frogs, and our study provides rare support from a field setting that conspecific attraction may be a relevant mechanism for models of anuran spatial ecology.

Teaching Ecological Principles as a Basis for Understanding Environmental Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Paul; Boltt, Gill

1989-01-01

Using case study data, determines high school pupils' and university students' (n=162) ability to predict possible outcomes of interactions between ecological populations . Results indicate the majority of respondents could predict interactive outcomes within a simple food web but not when the interaction involved multiple routes. (five…

Ecological Structure Activity Relationships

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological Structure Activity Relationships, v1.00a, February 2009
ECOSAR (Ecological Structure Activity Relationships) is a personal computer software program that is used to estimate the toxicity of chemicals used in industry and discharged into water. The program predicts...

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

Treesearch

Lawrence N. Hudson; Joseph Wunderle M.; And Others

2016-01-01

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to...

The next step in health behavior research: the need for ecological moderation analyses - an application to diet and physical activity at childcare.

PubMed

Gubbels, Jessica S; Van Kann, Dave Hh; de Vries, Nanne K; Thijs, Carel; Kremers, Stef Pj

2014-04-17

The ecological perspective holds that human behavior depends on the interaction of different environmental factors and personal characteristics, but it lacks validation and operationalization. In the current paper, an ecological view was adopted to examine the interactive impact of several ecological systems on children's dietary intake and physical activity at childcare or similar facilities. The ecological view was operationalized into three types of interaction: 1) interaction between types of childcare environment (physical, social, political, economic); 2) interaction between micro-systems (the childcare and home environment) in meso-systems; and 3) interaction between childcare environment and child characteristics. The predictive value of each of these interactions was tested based on a systematic review of the literature. Several studies support the hypothesis that the influence of the childcare environment on children's physical activity and diet is moderated by child characteristics (age, gender), but interaction between environmental types as well as between micro-systems is hardly examined in the field of behavioral nutrition and physical activity. Qualitative studies and general child development research provide some valuable insights, but we advocate quantitative research adopting an ecological perspective on environmental influences. Empirical studies operationalizing a true ecological view on diet and physical activity are scarce. Theorizing and assessment of interaction is advocated to become common practice rather than an exception in behavioral nutrition and physical activity research, in order to move the field forward.

The next step in health behavior research: the need for ecological moderation analyses - an application to diet and physical activity at childcare

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The ecological perspective holds that human behavior depends on the interaction of different environmental factors and personal characteristics, but it lacks validation and operationalization. In the current paper, an ecological view was adopted to examine the interactive impact of several ecological systems on children’s dietary intake and physical activity at childcare or similar facilities. The ecological view was operationalized into three types of interaction: 1) interaction between types of childcare environment (physical, social, political, economic); 2) interaction between micro-systems (the childcare and home environment) in meso-systems; and 3) interaction between childcare environment and child characteristics. The predictive value of each of these interactions was tested based on a systematic review of the literature. Discussion Several studies support the hypothesis that the influence of the childcare environment on children’s physical activity and diet is moderated by child characteristics (age, gender), but interaction between environmental types as well as between micro-systems is hardly examined in the field of behavioral nutrition and physical activity. Qualitative studies and general child development research provide some valuable insights, but we advocate quantitative research adopting an ecological perspective on environmental influences. Summary Empirical studies operationalizing a true ecological view on diet and physical activity are scarce. Theorizing and assessment of interaction is advocated to become common practice rather than an exception in behavioral nutrition and physical activity research, in order to move the field forward. PMID:24742167

Morphological adaptation influences the evolution of a mating signal.

PubMed

Ballentine, Barbara

2006-09-01

Theory predicts that forces of natural selection can reduce the intensity of sexually selected traits. In this study, I investigate how morphological adaptation to feeding ecology influences a mating signal. In birds, changes in feeding ecology can cause rapid divergence in bill morphology. Because bills are also important for song production, feeding ecology may influence song divergence. During song, birds can rapidly change vocal tract resonance using bill movement, yet are constrained in rate and magnitude of bill movements resulting in a trade-off between trill rate and frequency bandwidth. Male swamp sparrows vary in their ability to produce rapid, broad-band trills and females prefer more physically demanding songs. Populations of swamp sparrows adapted to the feeding ecology of tidal marshes have larger bills than inland populations. Larger bills should increase the constraints of producing rapid, broad-band trills allowing for a test of how changes in feeding ecology affect a feature of song used in mate choice. I found significant differences in acoustic features of song consistent with the hypothesis that coastal males are less able to meet the physical demands of song production because of the constraints of having larger bills. As possible compensation for decreases in song performance, coastal populations exhibit an increase in song complexity. These changes support the current model of how motor constraints influence song production and suggest a mechanism by which feeding ecology can influence signal evolution.

Context-dependent preferences in starlings: linking ecology, foraging and choice.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Marco; Monteiro, Tiago; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-01-01

Foraging animals typically encounter opportunities that they either pursue or skip, but occasionally meet several alternatives simultaneously. Behavioural ecologists predict preferences using absolute properties of each option, while decision theorists focus on relative evaluations at the time of choice. We use European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to integrate ecological reasoning with decision models, linking and testing hypotheses for value acquisition and choice mechanism. We hypothesise that options' values depend jointly on absolute attributes, learning context, and subject's state. In simultaneous choices, preference could result either from comparing subjective values using deliberation time, or from processing each alternative independently, without relative comparisons. The combination of the value acquisition hypothesis and independent processing at choice time has been called the Sequential Choice Model. We test this model with options equated in absolute properties to exclude the possibility of preference being built at the time of choice. Starlings learned to obtain food by responding to four stimuli in two contexts. In context [AB], they encountered options A5 or B10 in random alternation; in context [CD], they met C10 or D20. Delay to food is denoted, in seconds, by the suffixes. Observed latency to respond (Li) to each option alone (our measure of value) ranked thus: LA≈LC

Heating up relations between cold fish: competition modifies responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Holt, Robert D; Gilman, Sarah E; Tewksbury, Joshua

2011-05-01

Most predictions about species responses to climate change ignore species interactions. Helland and colleagues (2011) test whether this assumption is valid by evaluating whether ice cover affects competition between brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] and Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpines (L.)]. They show that increasing ice cover correlates with lower trout biomass when Arctic charr co-occur, but not in charr's absence. In experiments, charr grew better in the cold, dark environments that typify ice-covered lakes. Decreasing ice cover with warmer winters could mean more trout and fewer charr. More generally, their results provide an excellent example, suggesting that species interactions can strongly modify responses to climate change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Social ecology of child soldiers: child, family, and community determinants of mental health, psychosocial well-being, and reintegration in Nepal.

PubMed

Kohrt, Brandon A; Jordans, Mark J D; Tol, Wietse A; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2010-11-01

This study employed a social ecology framework to evaluate psychosocial well-being in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of functional impairment and reintegration. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the contribution of factors at multiple levels. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted lack of reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Ecological Trait Composition of Freshwater Fish Across Gradients of Environmental Variability in North-Eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennard, M. J.; Pusey, B. J.; Arthington, A. H.

2005-05-01

North-eastern Australia encompasses 18o of latitude, monsoonal/tropical to sub-tropical/temperate climates, geomorphologically diverse rivers, and flow regimes with markedly varied seasonality, constancy and predictability. Fish assemblages in the region vary in relation to the predictability of aquatic habitat availability and other topographic, climatic and/or biogeographic factors. This paper examines how environmental, biogeographic and phylogenetic factors may constrain ecological trait composition at local and regional scales. We derived 17 categories of ecological traits to describe the morphology, behaviour, habitat, life history and trophic characteristics of 114 fish species from 64 river basins. Trait composition varied substantially across the region. The number of riffle dwelling species, maximum size and longevity of fishes was greater in the hydrologically predictable and constant rivers of the Wet Tropics region than in more unpredictable or seasonal environments. The importance of herbivory was also greater in the tropics. Historical biogeographic and phylogenetic factors may confound our ability to understand the role of environmental factors in determining spatial variation in ecological trait composition. Understanding the functional linkages between environmental drivers of fish species distributions via their ecological characteristics should provide a foundation for predicting future impacts of environmental change in a region of Australia subject to increasing human pressures.

Predictive modelling of habitat selection by marine predators with respect to the abundance and depth distribution of pelagic prey.

PubMed

Boyd, Charlotte; Castillo, Ramiro; Hunt, George L; Punt, André E; VanBlaricom, Glenn R; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bertrand, Sophie

2015-11-01

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin species distribution patterns is a fundamental goal in spatial ecology. However, developing predictive models of habitat use is challenging for species that forage in marine environments, as both predators and prey are often highly mobile and difficult to monitor. Consequently, few studies have developed resource selection functions for marine predators based directly on the abundance and distribution of their prey. We analysed contemporaneous data on the diving locations of two seabird species, the shallow-diving Peruvian Booby (Sula variegata) and deeper diving Guanay Cormorant (Phalacrocorax bougainvilliorum), and the abundance and depth distribution of their main prey, Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens). Based on this unique data set, we developed resource selection functions to test the hypothesis that the probability of seabird diving behaviour at a given location is a function of the relative abundance of prey in the upper water column. For both species, we show that the probability of diving behaviour is mostly explained by the distribution of prey at shallow depths. While the probability of diving behaviour increases sharply with prey abundance at relatively low levels of abundance, support for including abundance in addition to the depth distribution of prey is weak, suggesting that prey abundance was not a major factor determining the location of diving behaviour during the study period. The study thus highlights the importance of the depth distribution of prey for two species of seabird with different diving capabilities. The results complement previous research that points towards the importance of oceanographic processes that enhance the accessibility of prey to seabirds. The implications are that locations where prey is predictably found at accessible depths may be more important for surface foragers, such as seabirds, than locations where prey is predictably abundant. Analysis of the relative importance of abundance and accessibility is essential for the design and evaluation of effective management responses to reduced prey availability for seabirds and other top predators in marine systems. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Revisiting the ants of Melanesia and the taxon cycle: historical and human-mediated invasions of a tropical archipelago.

PubMed

Economo, Evan P; Sarnat, Eli M

2012-07-01

Understanding the historical evolution of biotas and the dynamics of contemporary human-mediated species introductions are two central tasks of biology. One hypothesis may address both-the taxon cycle. Taxon cycles are phases of range expansion and contraction coupled to ecological and evolutionary niche shifts. These historical invasion processes resemble human-mediated invasions in pattern and possibly mechanism, but both the existence of historical cycles and the roles of recent introductions are in question. We return to the system that originally inspired the taxon cycle-Melanesian ants-and perform novel tests of the hypothesis. We analyze (i) the habitat distributions of Fiji's entire ant fauna (183 species), (ii) ecological shifts associated with the in situ radiation of Fijian Pheidole in a phylogenetic context, and (iii) the ecological structure of a massive exotic ant invasion of the archipelago. Our analyses indicate lineages shift toward primary habitats, higher elevation, rarity, and ecological specialization with increasing level of endemism, consistent with taxon cycle predictions. The marginal habitats that historically formed a dispersal conduit in the Pacific are now mostly replaced by human-modified habitats dominated by a colonization pulse of exotic species. We propose this may represent the first phase of an incipient global cycle of human-mediated colonization, ecological shifts, and diversification.

The role of Dynamic Energy Budget theory in predictive modeling of stressor impacts on ecological systems. Comment on: ;Physics of metabolic organization; by Marko Jusup et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galic, Nika; Forbes, Valery E.

2017-03-01

Human activities have been modifying ecosystems for centuries, from pressures on wild populations we harvest to modifying habitats through urbanization and agricultural activities. Changes in global climate patterns are adding another layer of, often unpredictable, perturbations to ecosystems on which we rely for life support [1,2]. To ensure the sustainability of ecosystem services, especially at this point in time when the human population is estimated to grow by another 2 billion by 2050 [3], we need to predict possible consequences of our actions and suggest relevant solutions [4,5]. We face several challenges when estimating adverse impacts of our actions on ecosystems. We describe these in the context of ecological risk assessment of chemicals. Firstly, when attempting to assess risk from exposure to chemicals, we base our decisions on a very limited number of species that are easily cultured and kept in the lab. We assume that preventing risk to these species will also protect all of the untested species present in natural ecosystems [6]. Secondly, although we know that chemicals interact with other stressors in the field, the number of stressors that we can test is limited due to logistical and ethical reasons. Similarly, empirical approaches are limited in both spatial and temporal scale due to logistical, financial and ethical reasons [7,8]. To bypass these challenges, we can develop ecological models that integrate relevant life history and other information and make testable predictions across relevant spatial and temporal scales [8-10].

Reconstructing the Mexican Tropical Dry Forests via an Autoecological Niche Approach: Reconsidering the Ecosystem Boundaries

PubMed Central

Prieto-Torres, David A.; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.

2016-01-01

We used Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) of individual species of two taxonomic groups (plants and birds) in order to reconstruct the climatic distribution of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs) in Mexico and to analyze their boundaries with other terrestrial ecosystems. The reconstruction for TDFs’ distribution was analyzed considering the prediction and omission errors based upon the combination of species, obtained from the overlap of individual models (only plants, only birds, and all species combined). Two verifications were used: a primary vegetation map and 100 independent TDFs localities. We performed a Principal Component (PCA) and Discriminant Analysis (DA) to evaluate the variation in the environmental variables and ecological overlap among ecosystems. The modeling strategies showed differences in the ecological patterns and prediction areas, where the “all species combined” model (with a threshold of ≥10 species) was the best strategy to use in the TDFs reconstruction. We observed a concordance of 78% with the primary vegetation map and a prediction of 98% of independent locality records. Although PCA and DA tests explained 75.78% and 97.9% of variance observed, respectively, we observed an important overlap among the TDFs with other adjacent ecosystems, confirming the existence of transition zones among them. We successfully modeled the distribution of Mexican TDFs using a number of bioclimatic variables and co-distributed species. This autoecological niche approach suggests the necessity of rethinking the delimitations of ecosystems based on the recognition of transition zones among them in order to understand the real nature of communities and association patterns of species. PMID:26968031

The multidimensional behavioural hypervolumes of two interacting species predict their space use and survival

PubMed Central

Lichtenstein, James L. L.; Wright, Colin M; McEwen, Brendan; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Pruitt, Jonathan N.

2018-01-01

Individual animals differ consistently in their behaviour, thus impacting a wide variety of ecological outcomes. Recent advances in animal personality research have established the ecological importance of the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by individuals and by multispecies communities. Here, we examine the degree to which the multidimensional behavioural volume of a group predicts the outcome of both intra- and interspecific interactions. In particular, we test the hypothesis that a population of conspecifics will experience low intraspecific competition when the population occupies a large volume in behavioural space. We further hypothesize that populations of interacting species will exhibit greater interspecific competition when one or both species occupy large volumes in behavioural space. We evaluate these hypotheses by studying groups of katydids (Scudderia nymphs) and froghoppers (Philaenus spumarius), which compete for food and space on their shared host plant, Solidago canadensis. We found that individuals in single-species groups of katydids positioned themselves closer to one another, suggesting reduced competition, when groups occupied a large behavioural volume. When both species were placed together, we found that the survival of froghoppers was greatest when both froghoppers and katydids occupied a small volume in behavioural space, particularly at high froghopper densities. These results suggest that groups that occupy large behavioural volumes can have low intraspecific competition but high interspecific competition. Thus, behavioural hypervolumes appear to have ecological consequences at both the level of the population and the community and may help to predict the intensity of competition both within and across species. PMID:29681647

Ecological impacts of lead mining on Ozark streams: toxicity of sediment and pore water.

PubMed

Besser, John M; Brumbaugh, William G; Allert, Ann L; Poulton, Barry C; Schmitt, Christopher J; Ingersoll, Christopher G

2009-02-01

We studied the toxicity of sediments downstream of lead-zinc mining areas in southeast Missouri, using chronic sediment toxicity tests with the amphipod, Hyalella azteca, and pore-water toxicity tests with the daphnid, Ceriodaphnia dubia. Tests conducted in 2002 documented reduced survival of amphipods in stream sediments collected near mining areas and reduced survival and reproduction of daphnids in most pore waters tested. Additional amphipod tests conducted in 2004 documented significant toxic effects of sediments from three streams downstream of mining areas: Strother Creek, West Fork Black River, and Bee Fork. Greatest toxicity occurred in sediments from a 6-km reach of upper Strother Creek, but significant toxic effects occurred in sediments collected at least 14 km downstream of mining in all three watersheds. Toxic effects were significantly correlated with metal concentrations (nickel, zinc, cadmium, and lead) in sediments and pore waters and were generally consistent with predictions of metal toxicity risks based on sediment quality guidelines, although ammonia and manganese may also have contributed to toxicity at a few sites. Responses of amphipods in sediment toxicity tests were significantly correlated with characteristics of benthic invertebrate communities in study streams. These results indicate that toxicity of metals associated with sediments contributes to adverse ecological effects in streams draining the Viburnum Trend mining district.

Ecological impacts of lead mining on Ozark streams: Toxicity of sediment and pore water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Besser, J.M.; Brumbaugh, W.G.; Allert, A.L.; Poulton, B.C.; Schmitt, C.J.; Ingersoll, C.G.

2009-01-01

We studied the toxicity of sediments downstream of lead-zinc mining areas in southeast Missouri, using chronic sediment toxicity tests with the amphipod, Hyalella azteca, and pore-water toxicity tests with the daphnid, Ceriodaphnia dubia. Tests conducted in 2002 documented reduced survival of amphipods in stream sediments collected near mining areas and reduced survival and reproduction of daphnids in most pore waters tested. Additional amphipod tests conducted in 2004 documented significant toxic effects of sediments from three streams downstream of mining areas: Strother Creek, West Fork Black River, and Bee Fork. Greatest toxicity occurred in sediments from a 6-km reach of upper Strother Creek, but significant toxic effects occurred in sediments collected at least 14 km downstream of mining in all three watersheds. Toxic effects were significantly correlated with metal concentrations (nickel, zinc, cadmium, and lead) in sediments and pore waters and were generally consistent with predictions of metal toxicity risks based on sediment quality guidelines, although ammonia and manganese may also have contributed to toxicity at a few sites. Responses of amphipods in sediment toxicity tests were significantly correlated with characteristics of benthic invertebrate communities in study streams. These results indicate that toxicity of metals associated with sediments contributes to adverse ecological effects in streams draining the Viburnum Trend mining district.

A Generic Individual-Based Spatially Explicit Model as a Novel Tool for Investigating Insect-Plant Interactions: A Case Study of the Behavioural Ecology of Frugivorous Tephritidae

PubMed Central

Wang, Ming; Cribb, Bronwen; Clarke, Anthony R.; Hanan, Jim

2016-01-01

Computational modelling of mechanisms underlying processes in the real world can be of great value in understanding complex biological behaviours. Uptake in general biology and ecology has been rapid. However, it often requires specific data sets that are overly costly in time and resources to collect. The aim of the current study was to test whether a generic behavioural ecology model constructed using published data could give realistic outputs for individual species. An individual-based model was developed using the Pattern-Oriented Modelling (POM) strategy and protocol, based on behavioural rules associated with insect movement choices. Frugivorous Tephritidae (fruit flies) were chosen because of economic significance in global agriculture and the multiple published data sets available for a range of species. The Queensland fruit fly (Qfly), Bactrocera tryoni, was identified as a suitable individual species for testing. Plant canopies with modified architecture were used to run predictive simulations. A field study was then conducted to validate our model predictions on how plant architecture affects fruit flies’ behaviours. Characteristics of plant architecture such as different shapes, e.g., closed-canopy and vase-shaped, affected fly movement patterns and time spent on host fruit. The number of visits to host fruit also differed between the edge and centre in closed-canopy plants. Compared to plant architecture, host fruit has less contribution to effects on flies’ movement patterns. The results from this model, combined with our field study and published empirical data suggest that placing fly traps in the upper canopy at the edge should work best. Such a modelling approach allows rapid testing of ideas about organismal interactions with environmental substrates in silico rather than in vivo, to generate new perspectives. Using published data provides a saving in time and resources. Adjustments for specific questions can be achieved by refinement of parameters based on targeted experiments. PMID:26999285

Benchmarking successional progress in a quantitative food web.

PubMed

Boit, Alice; Gaedke, Ursula

2014-01-01

Central to ecology and ecosystem management, succession theory aims to mechanistically explain and predict the assembly and development of ecological communities. Yet processes at lower hierarchical levels, e.g. at the species and functional group level, are rarely mechanistically linked to the under-investigated system-level processes which drive changes in ecosystem properties and functioning and are comparable across ecosystems. As a model system for secondary succession, seasonal plankton succession during the growing season is readily observable and largely driven autogenically. We used a long-term dataset from large, deep Lake Constance comprising biomasses, auto- and heterotrophic production, food quality, functional diversity, and mass-balanced food webs of the energy and nutrient flows between functional guilds of plankton and partly fish. Extracting population- and system-level indices from this dataset, we tested current hypotheses about the directionality of successional progress which are rooted in ecosystem theory, the metabolic theory of ecology, quantitative food web theory, thermodynamics, and information theory. Our results indicate that successional progress in Lake Constance is quantifiable, passing through predictable stages. Mean body mass, functional diversity, predator-prey weight ratios, trophic positions, system residence times of carbon and nutrients, and the complexity of the energy flow patterns increased during succession. In contrast, both the mass-specific metabolic activity and the system export decreased, while the succession rate exhibited a bimodal pattern. The weighted connectance introduced here represents a suitable index for assessing the evenness and interconnectedness of energy flows during succession. Diverging from earlier predictions, ascendency and eco-exergy did not increase during succession. Linking aspects of functional diversity to metabolic theory and food web complexity, we reconcile previously disjoint bodies of ecological theory to form a complete picture of successional progress within a pelagic food web. This comprehensive synthesis may be used as a benchmark for quantifying successional progress in other ecosystems.

Benchmarking Successional Progress in a Quantitative Food Web

PubMed Central

Boit, Alice; Gaedke, Ursula

2014-01-01

Central to ecology and ecosystem management, succession theory aims to mechanistically explain and predict the assembly and development of ecological communities. Yet processes at lower hierarchical levels, e.g. at the species and functional group level, are rarely mechanistically linked to the under-investigated system-level processes which drive changes in ecosystem properties and functioning and are comparable across ecosystems. As a model system for secondary succession, seasonal plankton succession during the growing season is readily observable and largely driven autogenically. We used a long-term dataset from large, deep Lake Constance comprising biomasses, auto- and heterotrophic production, food quality, functional diversity, and mass-balanced food webs of the energy and nutrient flows between functional guilds of plankton and partly fish. Extracting population- and system-level indices from this dataset, we tested current hypotheses about the directionality of successional progress which are rooted in ecosystem theory, the metabolic theory of ecology, quantitative food web theory, thermodynamics, and information theory. Our results indicate that successional progress in Lake Constance is quantifiable, passing through predictable stages. Mean body mass, functional diversity, predator-prey weight ratios, trophic positions, system residence times of carbon and nutrients, and the complexity of the energy flow patterns increased during succession. In contrast, both the mass-specific metabolic activity and the system export decreased, while the succession rate exhibited a bimodal pattern. The weighted connectance introduced here represents a suitable index for assessing the evenness and interconnectedness of energy flows during succession. Diverging from earlier predictions, ascendency and eco-exergy did not increase during succession. Linking aspects of functional diversity to metabolic theory and food web complexity, we reconcile previously disjoint bodies of ecological theory to form a complete picture of successional progress within a pelagic food web. This comprehensive synthesis may be used as a benchmark for quantifying successional progress in other ecosystems. PMID:24587353

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology.

PubMed

Rose, Kevin C; Graves, Rose A; Hansen, Winslow D; Harvey, Brian J; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Wood, Stephen A; Ziter, Carly; Turner, Monica G

2017-02-01

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Phylogenetic analyses provide insights into the historical biogeography and evolution of Brachyrhaphis fishes.

PubMed

Ingley, Spencer J; Reina, Ruth G; Bermingham, Eldredge; Johnson, Jerald B

2015-08-01

The livebearing fish genus Brachyrhaphis (Poeciliidae) has become an increasingly important model in evolution and ecology research, yet the phylogeny of this group is not well understood, nor has it been examined thoroughly using modern phylogenetic methods. Here, we present the first comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Brachyrhaphis by using four molecular markers (3mtDNA, 1nucDNA) to infer relationships among species in this genus. We tested the validity of this genus as a monophyletic group using extensive outgroup sampling based on recent phylogenetic hypotheses of Poeciliidae. We also tested the validity of recently described species of Brachyrhaphis that are part of the B. episcopi complex in Panama. Finally, we examined the impact of historical events on diversification of Brachyrhaphis, and made predictions regarding the role of different ecological environments on evolutionary diversification where known historical events apparently fail to explain speciation. Based on our results, we reject the monophyly of Brachyrhaphis, and question the validity of two recently described species (B. hessfeldi and B. roswithae). Historical biogeography of Brachyrhaphis generally agrees with patterns found in other freshwater taxa in Lower Central America, which show that geological barriers frequently predict speciation. Specifically, we find evidence in support of an 'island' model of Lower Central American formation, which posits that the nascent isthmus was partitioned by several marine connections before linking North and South America. In some cases where historic events (e.g., vicariance) fail to explain allopatric species breaks in Brachyrhaphis, ecological processes (e.g., divergent predation environments) offer additional insight into our understanding of phylogenetic diversification in this group. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the Pleistocene history of a semi-aquatic bug (Microvelia douglasi douglasi) in East Asia.

PubMed

Ye, Zhen; Zhu, Gengping; Chen, Pingping; Zhang, Danli; Bu, Wenjun

2014-06-01

This study investigated the Pleistocene history of a semi-aquatic bug, Microvelia douglasi douglasi Scott, 1874 (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in East Asia. We used M. douglasi douglasi as a model species to explore the effects of historical climatic fluctuations on montane semi-aquatic invertebrate species. Two hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENMs). First, we hypothesized that M. douglasi douglasi persisted in suitable habitats in southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan and southeast China during the LIG. After that, the populations expanded (Hypothesis 1). As the spatial prediction in the LGM was significantly larger than in the LIG, we then hypothesized that the population expanded during the LIG to LGM transition (Hypothesis 2). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial data (COI+COII) and nuclear data (ITS1+5.8S+ITS2). Young lineages, relatively deep splits, lineage differentiation among mountain ranges in central, south and southwest China and high genetic diversities were observed in these suitable habitats. Evidence of mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicate that a population expansion occurred in the late Pleistocene. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) revealed an unusual population expansion that likely happened during the cooling transition between LIG and LGM. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM, a finding that can profoundly improve phylogeographic research. The ecological requirements of M. douglasi douglasi, together with the geographical heterogeneity and climatic fluctuations of Pleistocene in East Asia, could have shaped this unusual demographic history. Our study contributes to our knowledge of semi-aquatic bug/invertebrate responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in East Asia. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

2018-05-01

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Big cats as a model system for the study of the evolution of intelligence.

PubMed

Borrego, Natalia

2017-08-01

Currently, carnivores, and felids in particular, are vastly underrepresented in cognitive literature, despite being an ideal model system for tests of social and ecological intelligence hypotheses. Within Felidae, big cats (Panthera) are uniquely suited to studies investigating the evolutionary links between social, ecological, and cognitive complexity. Intelligence likely did not evolve in a unitary way but instead evolved as the result of mutually reinforcing feedback loops within the physical and social environments. The domain-specific social intelligence hypothesis proposes that social complexity drives only the evolution of cognitive abilities adapted only to social domains. The domain-general hypothesis proposes that the unique demands of social life serve as a bootstrap for the evolution of superior general cognition. Big cats are one of the few systems in which we can directly address conflicting predictions of the domain-general and domain-specific hypothesis by comparing cognition among closely related species that face roughly equivalent ecological complexity but vary considerably in social complexity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Competition promotes the evolution of host generalists in obligate parasites

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kevin P.; Malenke, Jael R.; Clayton, Dale H.

2009-01-01

Ecological theory traditionally predicts that interspecific competition selects for an increase in ecological specialization. Specialization, in turn, is often thought to be an evolutionary ‘dead end,’ with specialist lineages unlikely to evolve into generalist lineages. In host–parasite systems, this specialization can take the form of host specificity, with more specialized parasites using fewer hosts. We tested the hypothesis that specialists are evolutionarily more derived, and whether competition favours specialization, using the ectoparasitic feather lice of doves. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that complete host specificity is actually the ancestral condition, with generalists repeatedly evolving from specialist ancestors. These multiple origins of generalists are correlated with the presence of potentially competing species of the same genus. A competition experiment with captive doves and lice confirmed that congeneric species of lice do, in fact, have the potential to compete in ecological time. Taken together, these results suggest that interspecific competition can favour the evolution of host generalists, not specialists, over macroevolutionary time. PMID:19710056

Biodegradability standards for carrier bags and plastic films in aquatic environments: a critical review.

PubMed

Harrison, Jesse P; Boardman, Carl; O'Callaghan, Kenneth; Delort, Anne-Marie; Song, Jim

2018-05-01

Plastic litter is encountered in aquatic ecosystems across the globe, including polar environments and the deep sea. To mitigate the adverse societal and ecological impacts of this waste, there has been debate on whether 'biodegradable' materials should be granted exemptions from plastic bag bans and levies. However, great care must be exercised when attempting to define this term, due to the broad and complex range of physical and chemical conditions encountered within natural ecosystems. Here, we review existing international industry standards and regional test methods for evaluating the biodegradability of plastics within aquatic environments (wastewater, unmanaged freshwater and marine habitats). We argue that current standards and test methods are insufficient in their ability to realistically predict the biodegradability of carrier bags in these environments, due to several shortcomings in experimental procedures and a paucity of information in the scientific literature. Moreover, existing biodegradability standards and test methods for aquatic environments do not involve toxicity testing or account for the potentially adverse ecological impacts of carrier bags, plastic additives, polymer degradation products or small (microscopic) plastic particles that can arise via fragmentation. Successfully addressing these knowledge gaps is a key requirement for developing new biodegradability standard(s) for lightweight carrier bags.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Ecologic and Geographic Distribution of Filovirus Disease

PubMed Central

Bauer, John T.; Mills, James N.

2004-01-01

We used ecologic niche modeling of outbreaks and sporadic cases of filovirus-associated hemorrhagic fever (HF) to provide a large-scale perspective on the geographic and ecologic distributions of Ebola and Marburg viruses. We predicted that filovirus would occur across the Afrotropics: Ebola HF in the humid rain forests of central and western Africa, and Marburg HF in the drier and more open areas of central and eastern Africa. Most of the predicted geographic extent of Ebola HF has been observed; Marburg HF has the potential to occur farther south and east. Ecologic conditions appropriate for Ebola HF are also present in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, where Ebola Reston is hypothesized to be distributed. This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family. PMID:15078595

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

PubMed Central

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics. PMID:19805104

Biological responses of two marine organisms of ecological relevance to on-going ocean acidification and global warming.

PubMed

Gomiero, A; Bellerby, R G J; Manca Zeichen, M; Babbini, L; Viarengo, A

2018-05-01

Recently, there has been a growing concern that climate change may rapidly and extensively alter global ecosystems with unknown consequences for terrestrial and aquatic life. While considerable emphasis has been placed on terrestrial ecology consequences, aquatic environments have received relatively little attention. Limited knowledge is available on the biological effects of increments of seawater temperature and pH decrements on key ecological species, i.e., primary producers and/or organisms representative of the basis of the trophic web. In the present study, we addressed the biological effects of global warming and ocean acidification on two model organisms, the microbenthic marine ciliate Euplotes crassus and the green alga Dunaliella tertiocleta using a suite of high level ecological endpoint tests and sub-lethal stress measures. Organisms were exposed to combinations of pH and temperature (TR1: 7.9 [pH], 25.5 °C and TR2: 7.8 [pH], 27,0 °C) simulating two possible environmental scenarios predicted to occur in the habitats of the selected species before the end of this century. The outcomes of the present study showed that the tested scenarios did not induce a significant increment of mortality on protozoa. Under the most severe exposure conditions, sub-lethal stress indices show that pH homeostatic mechanisms have energetic costs that divert energy from essential cellular processes and functions. The marine protozoan exhibited significant impairment of the lysosomal compartment and early signs of oxidative stress under these conditions. Similarly, significant impairment of photosynthetic efficiency and an increment in lipid peroxidation were observed in the autotroph model organism held under the most extreme exposure condition tested. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating theory into disturbance interaction experiments to better inform ecosystem management.

PubMed

Foster, Claire N; Sato, Chloe F; Lindenmayer, David B; Barton, Philip S

2016-04-01

Managing multiple, interacting disturbances is a key challenge to biodiversity conservation, and one that will only increase as global change drivers continue to alter disturbance regimes. Theoretical studies have highlighted the importance of a mechanistic understanding of stressor interactions for improving the prediction and management of interactive effects. However, many conservation studies are not designed or interpreted in the context of theory and instead focus on case-specific management questions. This is a problem as it means that few studies test the relationships highlighted in theoretical models as being important for ecological management. We explore the extent of this problem among studies of interacting disturbances by reviewing recent experimental studies of the interaction between fire and grazing in terrestrial ecosystems. Interactions between fire and grazing can occur via a number of pathways; one disturbance can modify the other's likelihood, intensity or spatial distribution, or one disturbance can alter the other's impacts on individual organisms. The strength of such interactions will vary depending on disturbance attributes (e.g. size or intensity), and this variation is likely to be nonlinear. We show that few experiments testing fire-grazing interactions are able to identify the mechanistic pathway driving an observed interaction, and most are unable to detect nonlinear effects. We demonstrate how these limitations compromise the ability of experimental studies to effectively inform ecological management. We propose a series of adjustments to the design of disturbance interaction experiments that would enable tests of key theoretical pathways and provide the deeper ecological understanding necessary for effective management. Such considerations are relevant to studies of a broad range of ecological interactions and are critical to informing the management of disturbance regimes in the context of accelerating global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the reliability, uncertainty, scaling and transferability of ecological production functions in ecological periodic tables

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological periodic tables are an information organizing system. Their elements are categorical habitat types. Their attributes are quantitative, predictably recurring (periodic) properties of a target biotic community. Since they translate habitats as inputs into measures of ...

Locating Pleistocene Refugia: Comparing Phylogeographic and Ecological Niche Model Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-01

the nature of the paleoclimatic layers currently available. Mountain ranges or large ice sheets are reflected in climate layers, as they present major...environmental gradients running both north-south (latitu- dinal) and east to west (North American mountain ranges). To assure that the test could be...Conceived and designed the experiments: RG EW. Analyzed the data: RG EW. Other: Contributed to project planning: SP AN. Provided data layers: AP RH

An empirical comparison of knowledge and skill in the context of traditional ecological knowledge.

PubMed

Kightley, Eric P; Reyes-García, Victoria; Demps, Kathryn; Magtanong, Ruth V; Ramenzoni, Victoria C; Thampy, Gayatri; Gueze, Maximilien; Stepp, John Richard

2013-10-16

We test whether traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) about how to make an item predicts a person's skill at making it among the Tsimane' (Bolivia). The rationale for this research is that the failure to distinguish between knowledge and skill might account for some of the conflicting results about the relationships between TEK, human health, and economic development. We test the association between a commonly-used measure of individual knowledge (cultural consensus analysis) about how to make an arrow or a bag and a measure of individual skill at making these items, using ordinary least-squares regression. The study consists of 43 participants from 3 villages. We find no association between our measures of knowledge and skill (core model, p > 0.5, R2 = .132). While we cannot rule out the possibility of a real association between these phenomena, we interpret our findings as support for the claim that researchers should distinguish between methods to measure knowledge and skill when studying trends in TEK.

A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

2016-02-01

Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

The ecological and construct validity of a newly developed measure of executive function: the Virtual Library Task.

PubMed

Renison, Belinda; Ponsford, Jennie; Testa, Renee; Richardson, Barry; Brownfield, Kylie

2012-05-01

Virtual reality (VR) assessment paradigms have the potential to address the limited ecological validity of pen and paper measures of executive function (EF) and the pragmatic and reliability issues associated with functional measures. To investigate the ecological validity and construct validity of a newly developed VR measure of EF, the Virtual Library Task (VLT); a real life analogous task--the Real Library Task (RLT); and five neuropsychological measures of EF were administered to 30 patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and 30 healthy Controls. Significant others for each participant also completed the Dysexecutive Questionnaire (DEX), which is a behavioral rating scale of everyday EF. Performances on the VLT and the RLT were significantly positively correlated indicating that VR performance is similar to real world performance. The TBI group performed significantly worse than the Control group on the VLT and the Modified Six Elements Test (MSET) but the other four neuropsychological measures of EF failed to differentiate the groups. Both the MSET and the VLT significantly predicted everyday EF suggesting that they are both ecologically valid tools for the assessment of EF. The VLT has the advantage over the MSET of providing objective measurement of individual components of EF.

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

PubMed

Feldstein, Leora R; Brownstein, John S; Brady, Oliver J; Hay, Simon I; Johansson, Michael A

2015-05-01

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear. We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks. Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4-16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings. This analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledge of global determinants of dengue risk and provides a basis for understanding the ecology of dengue endemicity. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Using SMS Text Messaging to Assess Moderators of Smoking Reduction: Validating a New Tool for Ecological Measurement of Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Berkman, Elliot T.; Dickenson, Janna; Falk, Emily B.; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Objective Understanding the psychological processes that contribute to smoking reduction will yield population health benefits. Negative mood may moderate smoking lapse during cessation, but this relationship has been difficult to measure in ongoing daily experience. We used a novel form of ecological momentary assessment to test a self-control model of negative mood and craving leading to smoking lapse. Design We validated short message service (SMS) text as a user-friendly and low-cost option for ecologically measuring real-time health behaviors. We sent text messages to cigarette smokers attempting to quit eight times daily for the first 21 days of cessation (N-obs = 3,811). Main outcome measures Approximately every two hours, we assessed cigarette count, mood, and cravings, and examined between- and within-day patterns and time-lagged relationships among these variables. Exhaled carbon monoxide was assessed pre- and posttreatment. Results Negative mood and craving predicted smoking two hours later, but craving mediated the mood–smoking relationship. Also, this mediation relationship predicted smoking over the next two, but not four, hours. Conclusion Results clarify conflicting previous findings on the relation between affect and smoking, validate a new low-cost and user-friendly method for collecting fine-grained health behavior assessments, and emphasize the importance of rapid, real-time measurement of smoking moderators. PMID:21401252

[Dilemma of null hypothesis in ecological hypothesis's experiment test.

PubMed

Li, Ji

2016-06-01

Experimental test is one of the major test methods of ecological hypothesis, though there are many arguments due to null hypothesis. Quinn and Dunham (1983) analyzed the hypothesis deduction model from Platt (1964) and thus stated that there is no null hypothesis in ecology that can be strictly tested by experiments. Fisher's falsificationism and Neyman-Pearson (N-P)'s non-decisivity inhibit statistical null hypothesis from being strictly tested. Moreover, since the null hypothesis H 0 (α=1, β=0) and alternative hypothesis H 1 '(α'=1, β'=0) in ecological progresses are diffe-rent from classic physics, the ecological null hypothesis can neither be strictly tested experimentally. These dilemmas of null hypothesis could be relieved via the reduction of P value, careful selection of null hypothesis, non-centralization of non-null hypothesis, and two-tailed test. However, the statistical null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) should not to be equivalent to the causality logistical test in ecological hypothesis. Hence, the findings and conclusions about methodological studies and experimental tests based on NHST are not always logically reliable.

Considerations for applying digital soil mapping to ecological sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent advancements in the spatial prediction of soil properties are not currently being fully utilized for ecological studies. Linking digital soil mapping (DSM) with ecological sites (ES) has the potential to better land management decisions by improving spatial resolution and precision as well as...

Possibilities of GIS for Plant Introduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Ecological Atlas of Russia and Neighboring Countries was used to predict the distribution of introduced species. Acer negundo was used as an example and an ecological model was developed using the natural distribution of the species in North America and some American ecological variables: namely...

Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Wolkovich, E M; Cook, B I; McLauchlan, K K; Davies, T J

2014-11-01

Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non-stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

2013-01-01

“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Jackson, Stephen T; Ferrier, Simon

2013-06-04

"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Diet and Diversification in the Evolution of Coral Reef Fishes

PubMed Central

Lobato, Fabio L.; Barneche, Diego R.; Siqueira, Alexandre C.; Liedke, Ana M. R.; Lindner, Alberto; Pie, Marcio R.; Bellwood, David R.; Floeter, Sergio R.

2014-01-01

The disparity in species richness among evolutionary lineages is one of the oldest and most intriguing issues in evolutionary biology. Although geographical factors have been traditionally thought to promote speciation, recent studies have underscored the importance of ecological interactions as one of the main drivers of diversification. Here, we test if differences in species richness of closely related lineages match predictions based on the concept of density-dependent diversification. As radiation progresses, ecological niche-space would become increasingly saturated, resulting in fewer opportunities for speciation. To assess this hypothesis, we tested whether reef fish niche shifts toward usage of low-quality food resources (i.e. relatively low energy/protein per unit mass), such as algae, detritus, sponges and corals are accompanied by rapid net diversification. Using available molecular information, we reconstructed phylogenies of four major reef fish clades (Acanthuroidei, Chaetodontidae, Labridae and Pomacentridae) to estimate the timing of radiations of their subclades. We found that the evolution of species-rich clades was associated with a switch to low quality food in three of the four clades analyzed, which is consistent with a density-dependent model of diversification. We suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in understanding the diversification of reef-fish lineages. PMID:25029229

Life History Variation in Invading Applesnails (Pomacea canaliculata) May Pose Ecological Threats to Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marfurt, R. K.; Boland, B. B.; Burks, R. L.

2005-05-01

In native habitats, channeled applesnails (Pomacea canaliculata) graze periphyton. However, casual observations from introduced populations suggest these invaders show variation in feeding ecology, predator response and life history strategies. Attempts to predict this consumer influence on ecosystem function suffer from a lack of basic data. We tested how salinity affected snail mortality. Both adults and hatchlings tolerated salinity levels up to 8 ppt. Adult feeding on lettuce increased significantly at 8 ppt compared to 0 ppt (p = 0.002), while hatchling consumption of algae did not vary (p = 0.284). To see how these consumers responded to predators from the invaded ecosystem, we tested behavioural responses to predatory cues from fish, turtles, crayfish and adult applesnails. Results indicated that fish and crayfish prompted similar predator-avoidance behaviors in hatchlings (p's < 0.05) and that hatchling response changed over time. Consumption rates of juvenile redear sunfish did not vary (x2, p > 0.05) between native (ramshorn) and exotic applesnails, whereas adult fish consumed more applesnails (x2, p < 0.001). Our current efforts focus on examining if predator presence or macrophyte choice alters applesnail feeding rates. Research providing insight into the basic ecology of applesnails can foster management efforts at the ecosystem scale.

Aquatic predicted no-effect concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their ecological risks in surface seawater of Liaodong Bay, China.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Wang, Juying; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Zhen; Cong, Yi; Yao, Ziwei; Lin, Zhongsheng

2016-06-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a class of ubiquitous pollutants in marine environments, exhibit moderate to high adverse effects on aquatic organisms and humans. However, the lack of PAH toxicity data for aquatic organism has limited evaluation of their ecological risks. In the present study, aquatic predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) of 16 priority PAHs were derived based on species sensitivity distribution models, and their probabilistic ecological risks in seawater of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Sea, China, were assessed. A quantitative structure-activity relationship method was adopted to achieve the predicted chronic toxicity data for the PNEC derivation. Good agreement for aquatic PNECs of 8 PAHs based on predicted and experimental chronic toxicity data was observed (R(2)  = 0.746), and the calculated PNECs ranged from 0.011 µg/L to 205.3 µg/L. A significant log-linear relationship also existed between the octanol-water partition coefficient and PNECs derived from experimental toxicity data (R(2)  = 0.757). A similar order of ecological risks for the 16 PAH species in seawater of Liaodong Bay was found by probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve methods. The individual high ecological risk of benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and benz[a]anthracene needs to be determined. The combined ecological risk of PAHs in seawater of Liaodong Bay calculated by the joint probability curve method was 13.9%, indicating a high risk as a result of co-exposure to PAHs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1587-1593. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Wootton, J. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Emmerson, Mark; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Timothy

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (∼25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Environmental risk assessment of a genetically-engineered microorganism: Erwinia carotovora

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orvos, D.R.

1989-01-01

Environmental use of genetically-engineered microorganisms (GEMs) has raised concerns over potential ecological impact. Development of microcosm systems useful in preliminary testing for risk assessment will provide useful information for predicting potential structural, functional, and genetic effects of GEM release. This study was executed to develop techniques that may be useful in risk assessment and microbial ecology, to ascertain which parameters are useful in determining risk and to predict risk from releasing an engineered strain of Erwinia carotovora. A terrestrial microcosm system for use in GEM risk assessment studies was developed for use in assessing alterations of microbial structure and functionmore » that may be caused by introducing the engineered strain of E. carotovora. This strain is being developed for use as a biological control agent for plant soft rot. Parameters that were monitored included survival and intraspecific competition of E. carotovora, structural effects upon both total bacterial populations and numbers of selected bacterial genera, effects upon activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, effects upon soil nutrients, and potential for gene transfer into or out of the engineered strain.« less

The role of ecological opportunity in shaping disparate diversification trajectories in a bicontinental primate radiation.

PubMed

Tran, Lucy A P

2014-04-22

Exceptional species and phenotypic diversity commonly are attributed to ecological opportunity (EO). The conventional EO model predicts that rates of lineage diversification and phenotypic evolution are elevated early in a radiation only to decline later in response to niche availability. Foregut fermentation is hypothesized to be a key innovation that allowed colobine monkeys (subfamily Colobinae), the only primates with this trait, to successfully colonize folivore adaptive zones unavailable to other herbivorous species. Therefore, diversification rates also are expected to be strongly linked with the evolution of traits related to folivory in these monkeys. Using dated molecular phylogenies and a dataset of feeding morphology, I test predictions of the EO model to evaluate the role of EO conferred by foregut fermentation in shaping the African and Asian colobine radiations. Findings from diversification methods coupled with colobine biogeographic history provide compelling evidence that decreasing availability of new adaptive zones during colonization of Asia together with constraints presented by dietary specialization underlie temporal changes in diversification in the Asian but not African clade. Additionally, departures from the EO model likely reflect iterative diversification events in Asia.

Predictors for reproductive isolation in a ring species complex following genetic and ecological divergence.

PubMed

Pereira, Ricardo J; Monahan, William B; Wake, David B

2011-07-06

Reproductive isolation (RI) is widely accepted as an important "check point" in the diversification process, since it defines irreversible evolutionary trajectories. Much less consensus exists about the processes that might drive RI. Here, we employ a formal quantitative analysis of genetic interactions at several stages of divergence within the ring species complex Ensatina eschscholtzii in order to assess the relative contribution of genetic and ecological divergence for the development of RI. By augmenting previous genetic datasets and adding new ecological data, we quantify levels of genetic and ecological divergence between populations and test how they correlate with a restriction of genetic admixture upon secondary contact. Our results indicate that the isolated effect of ecological divergence between parental populations does not result in reproductively isolated taxa, even when genetic transitions between parental taxa are narrow. Instead, processes associated with overall genetic divergence are the best predictors of reproductive isolation, and when parental taxa diverge in nuclear markers we observe a complete cessation of hybridization, even to sympatric occurrence of distinct evolutionary lineages. Although every parental population has diverged in mitochondrial DNA, its degree of divergence does not predict the extent of RI. These results show that in Ensatina, the evolutionary outcomes of ecological divergence differ from those of genetic divergence. While evident properties of taxa may emerge via ecological divergence, such as adaptation to local environment, RI is likely to be a byproduct of processes that contribute to overall genetic divergence, such as time in geographic isolation, rather than being a direct outcome of local adaptation.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Insect herbivores drive real-time ecological and evolutionary change in plant populations.

PubMed

Agrawal, Anurag A; Hastings, Amy P; Johnson, Marc T J; Maron, John L; Salminen, Juha-Pekka

2012-10-05

Insect herbivores are hypothesized to be major factors affecting the ecology and evolution of plants. We tested this prediction by suppressing insects in replicated field populations of a native plant, Oenothera biennis, which reduced seed predation, altered interspecific competitive dynamics, and resulted in rapid evolutionary divergence. Comparative genotyping and phenotyping of nearly 12,000 O. biennis individuals revealed that in plots protected from insects, resistance to herbivores declined through time owing to changes in flowering time and lower defensive ellagitannins in fruits, whereas plant competitive ability increased. This independent real-time evolution of plant resistance and competitive ability in the field resulted from the relaxation of direct selective effects of insects on plant defense and through indirect effects due to reduced herbivory on plant competitors.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Ecological determinants of mean family age of angiosperm trees in forest communities in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Hong; Chen, Shengbin

2016-06-01

Species assemblage in a local community is determined by the interplay of evolutionary and ecological processes. The Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis proposes mechanisms underlying patterns of biodiversity in biological communities along environmental gradients. This hypothesis predicts that, among other things, clades in areas with warm or wet environments are, on average, older than those in areas with cold or dry environments. Focusing on angiosperm trees in forests, this study tested the age-related prediction of the Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis. We related the mean family age of angiosperm trees in 57 local forests from across China with 23 current and paleo-environmental variables, which included all major temperature- and precipitation-related variables. Our study shows that the mean family age of angiosperm trees in local forests was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. This finding is consistent with the age-related prediction of the Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis. Approximately 85% of the variance in the mean family age of angiosperm trees was explained by temperature-related variables, and 81% of the variance in the mean family age of angiosperm trees was explained by precipitation-related variables. Climatic conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum did not explain additional variation in mean family age after accounting for current environmental conditions.

Variation in trait trade-offs allows differentiation among predefined plant functional types: implications for predictive ecology.

PubMed

Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Bönisch, Gerhard; Kattge, Jens; Van Bodegom, Peter M

2016-01-01

Plant functional types (PFTs) aggregate the variety of plant species into a small number of functionally different classes. We examined to what extent plant traits, which reflect species' functional adaptations, can capture functional differences between predefined PFTs and which traits optimally describe these differences. We applied Gaussian kernel density estimation to determine probability density functions for individual PFTs in an n-dimensional trait space and compared predicted PFTs with observed PFTs. All possible combinations of 1-6 traits from a database with 18 different traits (total of 18 287 species) were tested. A variety of trait sets had approximately similar performance, and 4-5 traits were sufficient to classify up to 85% of the species into PFTs correctly, whereas this was 80% for a bioclimatically defined tree PFT classification. Well-performing trait sets included combinations of correlated traits that are considered functionally redundant within a single plant strategy. This analysis quantitatively demonstrates how structural differences between PFTs are reflected in functional differences described by particular traits. Differentiation between PFTs is possible despite large overlap in plant strategies and traits, showing that PFTs are differently positioned in multidimensional trait space. This study therefore provides the foundation for important applications for predictive ecology. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Ecological Forecasting in the Applied Sciences Program and Input to the Decadal Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, Joseph

2015-01-01

Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors. Further, Ecological Forecasting employs observations and models to predict the effects of environmental change on ecosystems. In doing so, it applies information from the physical, biological, and social sciences and promotes a scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. The goal is reliable forecasts that allow decision makers access to science-based tools in order to project changes in living systems. The next decadal survey will direct the development Earth Observation sensors and satellites for the next ten years. It is important that these new sensors and satellites address the requirements for ecosystem models, imagery, and other data for resource management. This presentation will give examples of these model inputs and some resources needed for NASA to continue effective Ecological Forecasting.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

EPA Science Inventory

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

Ecological Impacts of Reverse Speciation in Threespine Stickleback.

PubMed

Rudman, Seth M; Schluter, Dolph

2016-02-22

Young species are highly prone to extinction via increased gene flow after human-caused environmental changes. This mechanism of biodiversity loss, often termed reverse speciation or introgressive extinction, is of exceptional interest because the parent species are typically highly differentiated ecologically. Reverse speciation events are potentially powerful case studies for the role of evolution in driving ecological changes, as the phenotypic shifts associated with introgressive extinction can be large and they occur over particularly short timescales. Furthermore, reverse speciation can lead to novel phenotypes, which may in turn produce novel ecological effects. Here we investigate the ecological shift associated with reverse speciation in threespine stickleback fish using a field study and a replicated experiment. We find that an instance of introgressive extinction had cascading ecological consequences that altered the abundance of both aquatic prey and the pupating aquatic insects that emerged into the terrestrial ecosystem. The community and ecosystem impacts of reverse speciation were novel, and yet they were also predictable based on ecological and morphological considerations. The study suggests that knowledge about the community ecology and changes in functional morphology of a dominant species may lead to some predictive power for the ecological effects of evolutionary change. Moreover, the rapid nature and resultant ecological impacts associated with reverse speciation demonstrates the interplay between biodiversity, evolutionary change, and ecosystem function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancing research on animal-transported subsidies by integrating animal movement and ecosystem modelling.

PubMed

Earl, Julia E; Zollner, Patrick A

2017-09-01

Connections between ecosystems via animals (active subsidies) support ecosystem services and contribute to numerous ecological effects. Thus, the ability to predict the spatial distribution of active subsidies would be useful for ecology and conservation. Previous work modelling active subsidies focused on implicit space or static distributions, which treat passive and active subsidies similarly. Active subsidies are fundamentally different from passive subsidies, because animals can respond to the process of subsidy deposition and ecosystem changes caused by subsidy deposition. We propose addressing this disparity by integrating animal movement and ecosystem ecology to advance active subsidy investigations, make more accurate predictions of subsidy spatial distributions, and enable a mechanistic understanding of subsidy spatial distributions. We review selected quantitative techniques that could be used to accomplish integration and lead to novel insights. The ultimate objective for these types of studies is predictions of subsidy spatial distributions from characteristics of the subsidy and the movement strategy employed by animals that transport subsidies. These advances will be critical in informing the management of ecosystem services, species conservation and ecosystem degradation related to active subsidies. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Vision & Strategy: Predictive Ecotoxicology in the 21st Century

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

their relative abundance or modifications QSARs —Correlation of ecological or toxicological activity with chemical structure to understand or predict...data and collection methods. The dramatic increase in the amount of toxicological data we can collect and analyze is complemented by our improved...diverse disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, molecular biology, toxicology , bioinformatics, and health and environmental risk assess- ment

Scaling environmental change through the community level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants

Treesearch

Katharine N. Suding; Sandra Lavorel; F. Stuart Chapin; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Sandra Diaz; Eric Garnier; Deborah Goldberg; David U. Hooper; Stephen T. Jackson; Marie-Laure Navas

2008-01-01

Predicting ecosystem responses to global change is a major challenge in ecology. A critical step in that challenge is to understand how changing environmental conditions influence processes across levels of ecological organization. While direct scaling from individual to ecosystem dynamics can lead to robust and mechanistic predictions, new approaches are needed to...

Ecological impacts and management strategies for western larch in the face of climate-change

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish

2010-01-01

Approximately 185,000 forest inventory and ecological plots from both USA and Canada were used to predict the contemporary distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) from climate variables. The random forests algorithm, using an 8-variable model, produced an overall error rate of about 2.9 %, nearly all of which consisted of predicting presence at...

Reinforcing loose foundation stones in trait-based plant ecology.

PubMed

Shipley, Bill; De Bello, Francesco; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Laliberté, Etienne; Laughlin, Daniel C; Reich, Peter B

2016-04-01

The promise of "trait-based" plant ecology is one of generalized prediction across organizational and spatial scales, independent of taxonomy. This promise is a major reason for the increased popularity of this approach. Here, we argue that some important foundational assumptions of trait-based ecology have not received sufficient empirical evaluation. We identify three such assumptions and, where possible, suggest methods of improvement: (i) traits are functional to the degree that they determine individual fitness, (ii) intraspecific variation in functional traits can be largely ignored, and (iii) functional traits show general predictive relationships to measurable environmental gradients.

Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

PubMed Central

Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

2009-01-01

Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to examine the community-level effects of ongoing evolution. PMID:19414473

Use and misuse of landscape indices

Treesearch

Harbin Li; Jianguo Wu

2004-01-01

Landscape ecology has generated much excitement in the past two decades. One reason was that it brought spatial analysis and modeling to the forefront of ecological research. However, high expectations for landscape analysis to improve our understanding and prediction of ecological processes have largely been unfulfilled. We identified three kinds of critical issues:...

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Consequences of ecological, evolutionary and biogeochemical uncertainty for coral reef responses to climatic stress.

PubMed

Mumby, Peter J; van Woesik, Robert

2014-05-19

Coral reefs are highly sensitive to the stress associated with greenhouse gas emissions, in particular ocean warming and acidification. While experiments show negative responses of most reef organisms to ocean warming, some autotrophs benefit from ocean acidification. Yet, we are uncertain of the response of coral reefs as systems. We begin by reviewing sources of uncertainty and complexity including the translation of physiological effects into demographic processes, indirect ecological interactions among species, the ability of coral reefs to modify their own chemistry, adaptation and trans-generational plasticity. We then incorporate these uncertainties into two simple qualitative models of a coral reef system under climate change. Some sources of uncertainty are far more problematic than others. Climate change is predicted to have an unambiguous negative effect on corals that is robust to several sources of uncertainty but sensitive to the degree of biogeochemical coupling between benthos and seawater. Macroalgal, zoanthid, and herbivorous fish populations are generally predicted to increase, but the ambiguity (confidence) of such predictions are sensitive to the source of uncertainty. For example, reversing the effect of climate-related stress on macroalgae from being positive to negative had no influence on system behaviour. By contrast, the system was highly sensitive to a change in the stress upon herbivorous fishes. Minor changes in competitive interactions had profound impacts on system behaviour, implying that the outcomes of mesocosm studies could be highly sensitive to the choice of taxa. We use our analysis to identify new hypotheses and suggest that the effects of climatic stress on coral reefs provide an exceptional opportunity to test emerging theories of ecological inheritance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Vegetation Height from WorldView-02 and ArcticDEM Data for Broad Ecological Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meddens, A. J.; Vierling, L. A.; Eitel, J.; Jennewein, J. S.; White, J. C.; Wulder, M.

2017-12-01

Boreal and arctic regions are warming at an unprecedented rate, and at a rate higher than in other regions across the globe. Ecological processes are highly responsive to temperature and therefore substantial changes in these northern ecosystems are expected. Recently, NASA initiated the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), which is a large-scale field campaign that aims to gain a better understanding of how the arctic responds to environmental change. High-resolution data products that quantify vegetation structure and function will improve efforts to assess these environmental change impacts. Our objective was to develop and test an approach that allows for mapping vegetation height at a 5m grid cell resolution across the ABoVE domain. To accomplish this, we selected three study areas across a north-south gradient in Alaska, representing an area of approximately 130 km2. We developed a RandomForest modeling approach for predicting vegetation height using the ArcticDEM (a digital surface model produced across the Arctic by the Polar Geospatial Center) and high-resolution multispectral satellite data (WorldView-2) in conjunction with aerial lidar data for calibration and validation. Vegetation height was successfully predicted across the three study areas and evaluated using an independent dataset, with R2 ranging from 0.58 to 0.76 and RMSEs ranging from 1.8 to 2.4 m. This predicted vegetation height dataset also led to the development of a digital terrain model using the ArcticDEM digital surface model by removing canopy heights from the surface heights. Our results show potential to establish a high resolution pan-arctic vegetation height map, which will provide useful information to a broad range of ongoing and future ecological research in high northern latitudes.

A comparative analysis reveals weak relationships between ecological factors and beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities at two spatial levels.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Melo, Adriano S; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Altermatt, Florian; Al-Shami, Salman A; Angeler, David G; Bonada, Núria; Brand, Cecilia; Callisto, Marcos; Cottenie, Karl; Dangles, Olivier; Dudgeon, David; Encalada, Andrea; Göthe, Emma; Grönroos, Mira; Hamada, Neusa; Jacobsen, Dean; Landeiro, Victor L; Ligeiro, Raphael; Martins, Renato T; Miserendino, María Laura; Md Rawi, Che Salmah; Rodrigues, Marciel E; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Sandin, Leonard; Schmera, Denes; Sgarbi, Luciano F; Simaika, John P; Siqueira, Tadeu; Thompson, Ross M; Townsend, Colin R

2015-03-01

The hypotheses that beta diversity should increase with decreasing latitude and increase with spatial extent of a region have rarely been tested based on a comparative analysis of multiple datasets, and no such study has focused on stream insects. We first assessed how well variability in beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities is predicted by insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties across multiple drainage basins throughout the world. Second, we assessed the relative roles of environmental and spatial factors in driving variation in assemblage composition within each drainage basin. Our analyses were based on a dataset of 95 stream insect metacommunities from 31 drainage basins distributed around the world. We used dissimilarity-based indices to quantify beta diversity for each metacommunity and, subsequently, regressed beta diversity on insect group, latitude, spatial extent, altitudinal range, and dataset properties (e.g., number of sites and percentage of presences). Within each metacommunity, we used a combination of spatial eigenfunction analyses and partial redundancy analysis to partition variation in assemblage structure into environmental, shared, spatial, and unexplained fractions. We found that dataset properties were more important predictors of beta diversity than ecological and geographical factors across multiple drainage basins. In the within-basin analyses, environmental and spatial variables were generally poor predictors of variation in assemblage composition. Our results revealed deviation from general biodiversity patterns because beta diversity did not show the expected decreasing trend with latitude. Our results also call for reconsideration of just how predictable stream assemblages are along ecological gradients, with implications for environmental assessment and conservation decisions. Our findings may also be applicable to other dynamic systems where predictability is low.

Cultural and Environmental Predictors of Pre-European Deforestation on Pacific Islands

PubMed Central

Coomber, Ties; Passmore, Sam; Greenhill, Simon J.; Kushnick, Geoff

2016-01-01

The varied islands of the Pacific provide an ideal natural experiment for studying the factors shaping human impact on the environment. Previous research into pre-European deforestation across the Pacific indicated a major effect of environment but did not account for cultural variation or control for dependencies in the data due to shared cultural ancestry and geographic proximity. The relative importance of environment and culture on Pacific deforestation and forest replacement and the extent to which environmental impact is constrained by cultural ancestry therefore remain unexplored. Here we use comparative phylogenetic methods to model the effect of nine ecological and two cultural variables on pre-European Pacific forest outcomes at 80 locations across 67 islands. We show that some but not all ecological features remain important predictors of forest outcomes after accounting for cultural covariates and non-independence in the data. Controlling for ecology, cultural variation in agricultural intensification predicts deforestation and forest replacement, and there is some evidence that land tenure norms predict forest replacement. These findings indicate that, alongside ecology, cultural factors also predict pre-European Pacific forest outcomes. Although forest outcomes covary with cultural ancestry, this effect disappears after controlling for geographic proximity and ecology. This suggests that forest outcomes were not tightly constrained by colonists’ cultural ancestry, but instead reflect a combination of ecological constraints and the short-term responses of each culture in the face of those constraints. PMID:27232713

Cultural and Environmental Predictors of Pre-European Deforestation on Pacific Islands.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Coomber, Ties; Passmore, Sam; Greenhill, Simon J; Kushnick, Geoff

2016-01-01

The varied islands of the Pacific provide an ideal natural experiment for studying the factors shaping human impact on the environment. Previous research into pre-European deforestation across the Pacific indicated a major effect of environment but did not account for cultural variation or control for dependencies in the data due to shared cultural ancestry and geographic proximity. The relative importance of environment and culture on Pacific deforestation and forest replacement and the extent to which environmental impact is constrained by cultural ancestry therefore remain unexplored. Here we use comparative phylogenetic methods to model the effect of nine ecological and two cultural variables on pre-European Pacific forest outcomes at 80 locations across 67 islands. We show that some but not all ecological features remain important predictors of forest outcomes after accounting for cultural covariates and non-independence in the data. Controlling for ecology, cultural variation in agricultural intensification predicts deforestation and forest replacement, and there is some evidence that land tenure norms predict forest replacement. These findings indicate that, alongside ecology, cultural factors also predict pre-European Pacific forest outcomes. Although forest outcomes covary with cultural ancestry, this effect disappears after controlling for geographic proximity and ecology. This suggests that forest outcomes were not tightly constrained by colonists' cultural ancestry, but instead reflect a combination of ecological constraints and the short-term responses of each culture in the face of those constraints.

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

A Western diet ecological module identified from the 'humanized' mouse microbiota predicts diet in adults and formula feeding in children.

PubMed

Siddharth, Jay; Holway, Nicholas; Parkinson, Scott J

2013-01-01

The interplay between diet and the microbiota has been implicated in the growing frequency of chronic diseases associated with the Western lifestyle. However, the complexity and variability of microbial ecology in humans and preclinical models has hampered identification of the molecular mechanisms underlying the association of the microbiota in this context. We sought to address two key questions. Can the microbial ecology of preclinical models predict human populations? And can we identify underlying principles that surpass the plasticity of microbial ecology in humans? To do this, we focused our study on diet; perhaps the most influential factor determining the composition of the gut microbiota. Beginning with a study in 'humanized' mice we identified an interactive module of 9 genera allied with Western diet intake. This module was applied to a controlled dietary study in humans. The abundance of the Western ecological module correctly predicted the dietary intake of 19/21 top and 21/21 of the bottom quartile samples inclusive of all 5 Western and 'low-fat' diet subjects, respectively. In 98 volunteers the abundance of the Western module correlated appropriately with dietary intake of saturated fatty acids, fat-soluble vitamins and fiber. Furthermore, it correlated with the geographical location and dietary habits of healthy adults from the Western, developing and third world. The module was also coupled to dietary intake in children (and piglets) correlating with formula (vs breast) feeding and associated with a precipitous development of the ecological module in young children. Our study provides a conceptual platform to translate microbial ecology from preclinical models to humans and identifies an ecological network module underlying the association of the gut microbiota with Western dietary habits.

A Western Diet Ecological Module Identified from the ‘Humanized’ Mouse Microbiota Predicts Diet in Adults and Formula Feeding in Children

PubMed Central

Siddharth, Jay; Holway, Nicholas; Parkinson, Scott J.

2013-01-01

The interplay between diet and the microbiota has been implicated in the growing frequency of chronic diseases associated with the Western lifestyle. However, the complexity and variability of microbial ecology in humans and preclinical models has hampered identification of the molecular mechanisms underlying the association of the microbiota in this context. We sought to address two key questions. Can the microbial ecology of preclinical models predict human populations? And can we identify underlying principles that surpass the plasticity of microbial ecology in humans? To do this, we focused our study on diet; perhaps the most influential factor determining the composition of the gut microbiota. Beginning with a study in ‘humanized’ mice we identified an interactive module of 9 genera allied with Western diet intake. This module was applied to a controlled dietary study in humans. The abundance of the Western ecological module correctly predicted the dietary intake of 19/21 top and 21/21 of the bottom quartile samples inclusive of all 5 Western and ‘low-fat’ diet subjects, respectively. In 98 volunteers the abundance of the Western module correlated appropriately with dietary intake of saturated fatty acids, fat-soluble vitamins and fiber. Furthermore, it correlated with the geographical location and dietary habits of healthy adults from the Western, developing and third world. The module was also coupled to dietary intake in children (and piglets) correlating with formula (vs breast) feeding and associated with a precipitous development of the ecological module in young children. Our study provides a conceptual platform to translate microbial ecology from preclinical models to humans and identifies an ecological network module underlying the association of the gut microbiota with Western dietary habits. PMID:24391809

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Barker, Brittany S.; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A.; Cook, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis, is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis, is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis, but not in E. antillensis, supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis, these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis, these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis, a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms. PMID:26508809

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Barker, Brittany S; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A; Cook, Joseph A

2015-08-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis , is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis , is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis , but not in E. antillensis , supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis , these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis , these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis , a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms.

Evolutionary relatedness does not predict competition and co-occurrence in natural or experimental communities of green algae

PubMed Central

Alexandrou, Markos A.; Cardinale, Bradley J.; Hall, John D.; Delwiche, Charles F.; Fritschie, Keith; Narwani, Anita; Venail, Patrick A.; Bentlage, Bastian; Pankey, M. Sabrina; Oakley, Todd H.

2015-01-01

The competition-relatedness hypothesis (CRH) predicts that the strength of competition is the strongest among closely related species and decreases as species become less related. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that common ancestry causes close relatives to share biological traits that lead to greater ecological similarity. Although intuitively appealing, the extent to which phylogeny can predict competition and co-occurrence among species has only recently been rigorously tested, with mixed results. When studies have failed to support the CRH, critics have pointed out at least three limitations: (i) the use of data poor phylogenies that provide inaccurate estimates of species relatedness, (ii) the use of inappropriate statistical models that fail to detect relationships between relatedness and species interactions amidst nonlinearities and heteroskedastic variances, and (iii) overly simplified laboratory conditions that fail to allow eco-evolutionary relationships to emerge. Here, we address these limitations and find they do not explain why evolutionary relatedness fails to predict the strength of species interactions or probabilities of coexistence among freshwater green algae. First, we construct a new data-rich, transcriptome-based phylogeny of common freshwater green algae that are commonly cultured and used for laboratory experiments. Using this new phylogeny, we re-analyse ecological data from three previously published laboratory experiments. After accounting for the possibility of nonlinearities and heterogeneity of variances across levels of relatedness, we find no relationship between phylogenetic distance and ecological traits. In addition, we show that communities of North American green algae are randomly composed with respect to their evolutionary relationships in 99% of 1077 lakes spanning the continental United States. Together, these analyses result in one of the most comprehensive case studies of how evolutionary history influences species interactions and community assembly in both natural and experimental systems. Our results challenge the generality of the CRH and suggest it may be time to re-evaluate the validity and assumptions of this hypothesis. PMID:25473009

Phenemenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, B.

2016-12-01

Predicting species responses to climate change is a central challenge in ecology, with most efforts relying on lab derived phenomenological relationships between temperature and fitness metrics. We tested one of these models using the embryonic stage of a Chinook salmon population. We parameterized the model with laboratory data, applied it to predict survival in the field, and found that it significantly underestimated field-derived estimates of thermal mortality. We used a biophysical model based on mass-transfer theory to show that the discrepancy was due to the differences in water flow velocities between the lab and the field. This mechanistic approach provides testable predictions for how the thermal tolerance of embryos depends on egg size and flow velocity of the surrounding water. We found support for these predictions across more than 180 fish species, suggesting that flow and temperature mediated oxygen limitation is a general mechanism underlying the thermal tolerance of embryos.

Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Vik, Jon Olav; Mysterud, Atle; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Tucker, Compton J; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-09-01

Assessing how environmental changes affect the distribution and dynamics of vegetation and animal populations is becoming increasingly important for terrestrial ecologists to enable better predictions of the effects of global warming, biodiversity reduction or habitat degradation. The ability to predict ecological responses has often been hampered by our rather limited understanding of trophic interactions. Indeed, it has proven difficult to discern direct and indirect effects of environmental change on animal populations owing to limited information about vegetation at large temporal and spatial scales. The rapidly increasing use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecological studies has recently changed this situation. Here, we review the use of the NDVI in recent ecological studies and outline its possible key role in future research of environmental change in an ecosystem context.

Rapid assessment of lamp spectrum to quantify ecological effects of light at night.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rodríguez, Airam; Witherington, Blair; Penniman, Jay F; Herf, Lorna; Herf, Michael

2018-06-12

For many decades, the spectral composition of lighting was determined by the type of lamp, which also influenced potential effects of outdoor lights on species and ecosystems. Light-emitting diode (LED) lamps have dramatically increased the range of spectral profiles of light that is economically viable for outdoor lighting. Because of the array of choices, it is necessary to develop methods to predict the effects of different spectral profiles without conducting field studies, especially because older lighting systems are being replaced rapidly. We describe an approach to predict responses of exemplar organisms and groups to lamps of different spectral output by calculating an index based on action spectra from behavioral or visual characteristics of organisms and lamp spectral irradiance. We calculate relative response indices for a range of lamp types and light sources and develop an index that identifies lamps that minimize predicted effects as measured by ecological, physiological, and astronomical indices. Using these assessment metrics, filtered yellow-green and amber LEDs are predicted to have lower effects on wildlife than high pressure sodium lamps, while blue-rich lighting (e.g., K ≥ 2200) would have greater effects. The approach can be updated with new information about behavioral or visual responses of organisms and used to test new lighting products based on spectrum. Together with control of intensity, direction, and duration, the approach can be used to predict and then minimize the adverse effects of lighting and can be tailored to individual species or taxonomic groups. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Metabolic theory and elevational diversity of vertebrate ectotherms.

PubMed

McCain, Christy M; Sanders, Nathan J

2010-02-01

The Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) posits that the temperature-dependent kinetics of metabolism shape broad-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here we test whether the MTE accounts for patterns of diversity using 102 elevational diversity gradients of reptiles and amphibians. In particular, we examined the support for the two key predictions of the MTE: that the reciprocal of absolute temperature (1/kT) and diversity are linearly related and that the slope of that relationship is -0.65. We also tested two underlying assumptions of the MTE in cases with appropriate data, namely, that abundance is invariant among samples, and that behavioral thermoregulation influences the MTE predictions. We found that few studies supported the predictions of the MTE for the relationship between environmental temperature and elevational diversity using previous methods on individual gradients and using meta-analysis. The predominant relationship was curvilinear, and the slopes were steeper than predicted. In analyses of individual gradients, only 6% followed the MTE predictions in the strictest application, and 25% in the broadest. We found violations of the assumption of invariant abundances in all five test cases. All four herpetofaunal groups, regardless of behavioral thermoregulatory abilities, demonstrated poor fits to the MTE predictions. Even when arid gradients are removed, ameliorating the potential effects of water limitation, the MTE did not account for herpetofaunal elevational diversity. We conclude that an interplay of factors shapes elevational diversity gradients rather than the simple kinetics of biochemical reactions.

Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

2013-07-01

Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

PubMed

Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

2017-12-01

How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

PubMed

Boiffin, Juliette; Badeau, Vincent; Bréda, Nathalie

2017-03-01

Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatial dependence of predictions from image segmentation: A variogram-based method to determine appropriate scales for producing land-management information

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A significant challenge in ecological studies has been defining scales of observation that correspond to the relevant ecological scales for organisms or processes of interest. Remote sensing has become commonplace in ecological studies and management, but the default resolution of imagery often used...

Spatial dependence of predictions from image segmentation: a methods to determine appropriate scales for producing land-management information

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A challenge in ecological studies is defining scales of observation that correspond to relevant ecological scales for organisms or processes. Image segmentation has been proposed as an alternative to pixel-based methods for scaling remotely-sensed data into ecologically-meaningful units. However, to...

Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

Treesearch

Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

2008-01-01

Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

Evolving Approaches and Technologies to Enhance the Role of Ecological Modeling in Decision Making

Treesearch

Eric Gustafson; John Nestler; Louis Gross; Keith M. Reynolds; Daniel Yaussy; Thomas P. Maxwell; Virginia H. Dale

2002-01-01

Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models...

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Covariance and decoupling of floral and vegetative traits in nine Neotropical plants: a re-evaluation of Berg's correlation-pleiades concept.

PubMed

Armbruster, W S; Di Stilio, V S; Tuxill, J D; Flores, T C; Velásquez Runk, J L

1999-01-01

Nearly forty years ago R. L. Berg proposed that plants with specialized pollination ecology evolve genetic and developmental systems that decouple floral morphology from phenotypic variation in vegetative traits. These species evolve separate floral and vegetative trait clusters, or as she termed them, "correlation pleiades." The predictions of this hypothesis have been generally supported, but only a small sample of temperate-zone herb and grass species has been tested. To further evaluate this hypothesis, especially its applicability to plants of other growth forms, we examined the patterns of phenotypic variation and covariation of floral and vegetative traits in nine species of Neotropical plants. We recognized seven specific predictions of Berg's hypothesis. Our results supported some predictions but not others. Species with specialized pollination systems usually had floral traits decoupled (weak correlation; Canna and Eichornia) or buffered (relationship with shallow proportional slope; Calathea and Canna) from variation in vegetative traits. However, the same trend was also observed in three species with unspecialized pollination systems (Echinodorus, Muntingia, and Wedelia). One species with unspecialized pollination (Croton) and one wind-pollinated species (Cyperus) showed no decoupling or buffering, as predicted. While species with specialized pollination usually showed lower coefficients of variation for floral traits than vegetative traits (as predicted), the same was also true of species with unspecialized or wind pollination (unlike our prediction). Species with specialized pollination showed less variation in floral traits than did species with unspecialized or wind pollination, as predicted. However, the same was true of the corresponding vegetative traits, which was unexpected. Also in contrast to our prediction, plants with specialized pollination systems did not exhibit tighter phenotypic integration of floral characters than did species with generalized pollination systems. We conclude that the patterns of morphological integration among floral traits and between floral and vegetative traits tend to be species specific, not easily predicted from pollination ecology, and generally more complicated than R. L. Berg envisaged.

A Mechanistically Informed User-Friendly Model to Predict Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Fluxes and Carbon Storage from Coastal Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul-Aziz, O. I.; Ishtiaq, K. S.

2015-12-01

We present a user-friendly modeling tool on MS Excel to predict the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and estimate potential carbon sequestration from the coastal wetlands. The dominant controls of wetland GHG fluxes and their relative mechanistic linkages with various hydro-climatic, sea level, biogeochemical and ecological drivers were first determined by employing a systematic data-analytics method, including Pearson correlation matrix, principal component and factor analyses, and exploratory partial least squares regressions. The mechanistic knowledge and understanding was then utilized to develop parsimonious non-linear (power-law) models to predict wetland carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes based on a sub-set of climatic, hydrologic and environmental drivers such as the photosynthetically active radiation, soil temperature, water depth, and soil salinity. The models were tested with field data for multiple sites and seasons (2012-13) collected from the Waquoit Bay, MA. The model estimated the annual wetland carbon storage by up-scaling the instantaneous predicted fluxes to an extended growing season (e.g., May-October) and by accounting for the net annual lateral carbon fluxes between the wetlands and estuary. The Excel Spreadsheet model is a simple ecological engineering tool for coastal carbon management and their incorporation into a potential carbon market under a changing climate, sea level and environment. Specifically, the model can help to determine appropriate GHG offset protocols and monitoring plans for projects that focus on tidal wetland restoration and maintenance.

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, R.J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

2011-01-01

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.

PubMed

Thomas, Mridul K; Fontana, Simone; Reyes, Marta; Kehoe, Michael; Pomati, Francesco

2018-05-01

Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R 2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of age on a real-world What-Where-When memory task

PubMed Central

Mazurek, Adèle; Bhoopathy, Raja Meenakshi; Read, Jenny C. A.; Gallagher, Peter; Smulders, Tom V.

2015-01-01

Many cognitive abilities decline with aging, making it difficult to detect pathological changes against a background of natural changes in cognition. Most of the tests to assess cognitive decline are artificial tasks that have little resemblance to the problems faced by people in everyday life. This means both that people may have little practice doing such tasks (potentially contributing to the decline in performance) and that the tasks may not be good predictors of real-world cognitive problems. In this study, we test the performance of young people (18–25 years) and older people (60+-year-olds) on a novel, more ecologically valid test of episodic memory: the real-world What-Where-When (WWW) memory test. We also compare them on a battery of other cognitive tests, including working memory, psychomotor speed, executive function, and episodic memory. Older people show the expected age-related declines on the test battery. In the WWW memory task, older people were more likely to fail to remember any WWW combination than younger people were, although they did not significantly differ in their overall WWW score due to some older people performing as well as or better than most younger people. WWW memory performance was significantly predicted by other measures of episodic memory, such as the single-trial learning and long-term retention in the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning task and Combined Object Location Memory in the Object Relocation task. Self-reported memory complaints also predicted performance on the WWW task. These findings confirm that our real-world WWW memory task is a valid measure of episodic memory, with high ecological validity, which may be useful as a predictor of everyday memory abilities. The task will require a bit more development to improve its sensitivity to cognitive declines in aging and to potentially distinguish between mentally healthy older adults and those with early signs of cognitive pathologies. PMID:26042030

Predictive models of forest dynamics.

PubMed

Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

2008-06-13

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

Biodegradability standards for carrier bags and plastic films in aquatic environments: a critical review

PubMed Central

Boardman, Carl; O'Callaghan, Kenneth; Delort, Anne-Marie; Song, Jim

2018-01-01

Plastic litter is encountered in aquatic ecosystems across the globe, including polar environments and the deep sea. To mitigate the adverse societal and ecological impacts of this waste, there has been debate on whether ‘biodegradable' materials should be granted exemptions from plastic bag bans and levies. However, great care must be exercised when attempting to define this term, due to the broad and complex range of physical and chemical conditions encountered within natural ecosystems. Here, we review existing international industry standards and regional test methods for evaluating the biodegradability of plastics within aquatic environments (wastewater, unmanaged freshwater and marine habitats). We argue that current standards and test methods are insufficient in their ability to realistically predict the biodegradability of carrier bags in these environments, due to several shortcomings in experimental procedures and a paucity of information in the scientific literature. Moreover, existing biodegradability standards and test methods for aquatic environments do not involve toxicity testing or account for the potentially adverse ecological impacts of carrier bags, plastic additives, polymer degradation products or small (microscopic) plastic particles that can arise via fragmentation. Successfully addressing these knowledge gaps is a key requirement for developing new biodegradability standard(s) for lightweight carrier bags. PMID:29892374

Individually assessed boldness predicts Perca fluviatilis behaviour in shoals, but is not associated with the capture order or angling method.

PubMed

Kekäläinen, J; Podgorniak, T; Puolakka, T; Hyvärinen, P; Vainikka, A

2014-11-01

Selectivity of recreational angling on fish behaviour was studied by examining whether capture order or lure type (natural v. artificial bait) in ice-fishing could explain behavioural variation among perch Perca fluviatilis individuals. It was also tested if individually assessed personality predicts fish behaviour in groups, in the presence of natural predators. Perca fluviatilis showed individually repeatable behaviour both in individual and in group tests. Capture order, capture method, condition factor or past growth rate did not explain variation in individual behaviour. Individually determined boldness as well as fish size, however, were positively associated with first entrance to the predator zone (i.e. initial risk taking) in group behaviour tests. Individually determined boldness also explained long-term activity and total time spent in the vicinity of predators in the group. These findings suggest that individual and laboratory-based boldness tests predict boldness of P. fluviatilis in also ecologically relevant conditions, i.e. in shoals and in the presence of natural predators. The present results, however, also indicate that the above-mentioned two angling methods may not be selective for certain behavioural types in comparison to each other. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

PubMed Central

Stillman, Richard A.; Railsback, Steven F.; Giske, Jarl; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker

2014-01-01

Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions—fitness maximization by individual organisms—is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research. PMID:26955076

Shifts in rotifer life history in response to stable isotope enrichment: testing theories of isotope effects on organismal growth

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In ecology, stable isotope labelling is commonly used for tracing material transfer in trophic interactions, nutrient budgets and biogeochemical processes. The main assumption in this approach is that the enrichment with a heavy isotope has no effect on the organism growth and metabolism. This assumption is, however, challenged by theoretical considerations and experimental studies on kinetic isotope effects in vivo. Here, I demonstrate profound changes in life histories of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis fed 15N-enriched algae (0.4–5.0 at%); i.e. at the enrichment levels commonly used in ecological studies. These findings support theoretically predicted effects of heavy isotope enrichment on growth, metabolism and ageing in biological systems and underline the importance of accounting for such effects when using stable isotope labelling in experimental studies. PMID:28405367

The pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation attributes.

PubMed

Rasic, Gordana; Keyghobadi, Nusha

2012-01-01

We investigated the pattern of spatial genetic structure and the extent of gene flow in the pitcher plant flesh fly Fletcherimyia fletcheri, the largest member of the inquiline community of the purple pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Using microsatellite loci, we tested the theoretical predictions of different hypothesized population models (patchy population, metapopulation, or isolated populations) among 11 bogs in Algonquin Provincial Park (Canada). Our results revealed that the pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation characteristics. There is significant differentiation among bogs and limited gene flow at larger spatial scales, but local populations do not experience frequent local extinctions/recolonizations. Our findings suggest a strong dispersal ability and stable population sizes in F. fletcheri, providing novel insights into the ecology of this member of a unique ecological microcosm.

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Green, D. S.; Eco Forecasters

2011-12-01

Ecological prediction of the impacts of physical, chemical, biological, and human-induced change on ecosystems and their components, encompass a wide range of space and time scales, and subject matter. They vary from predicting the occurrence and/or transport of certain species, such harmful algal blooms, or biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentrations, to large-scale ecosystem responses and higher trophic levels. The timescales of ecological prediction, including guidance and forecasts, range from nowcasts and short-term forecasts (days), to intraseasonal and interannual outlooks (weeks to months), to decadal and century projections in climate change scenarios. The spatial scales range from small coastal inlets to basin and global scale biogeochemical and ecological forecasts. The types of models that have been used include conceptual, empirical, mechanistic, and hybrid approaches. This presentation will identify the challenges and progress toward transitioning experimental model-based ecological prediction into operational guidance and forecasting. Recent efforts are targeting integration of regional ocean, hydrodynamic and hydrological models and leveraging weather and water service infrastructure to enable the prototyping of an operational ecological forecast capability for the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. A path finder demonstration predicts the probability of encountering sea nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish. These jellyfish can negatively impact safety and economic activities in the bay and an impact-based forecast that predicts where and when this biotic nuisance occurs may help management effects. The issuance of bay-wide nowcasts and three-day forecasts of sea nettle probability are generated daily by forcing an empirical habitat model (that predicts the probability of sea nettles) with real-time and 3-day forecasts of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). In the first demonstration phase, the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are generated by the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS2), a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model developed and operated by NOAA's National Ocean Service and run operationally at the National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Importantly, this system is readily modified to predict the probability of other important target organisms, such as harmful algal blooms, biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentration, and water-borne pathogens. Extending this initial effort includes advancement of a regional coastal ocean modeling testbed and proving ground. Such formal collaboration is intended to accelerate transition to operations and increase confidence and use of forecast guidance. The outcome will be improved decision making by emergency and resource managers, scientific researchers and the general public. The presentation will describe partnership plans for this testbed as well as the potential implications for the services and research community.

Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts.

PubMed

Vidiella, Blai; Sardanyés, Josep; Solé, Ricard

2018-06-01

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and contain a similar percentage of the human population. Theoretical models and palaeoclimatic data predict a grim future, with rapid shifts towards a desert state, with accelerated diversity losses and ecological collapses. These shifts are a consequence of the special nonlinearities resulting from ecological facilitation. Here, we investigate a simple model of semiarid ecosystems identifying the so-called ghost, which appears after a catastrophic transition from a vegetated to a desert state once a critical rate of soil degradation is overcome. The ghost involves a slowdown of transients towards the desert state, making the ecosystem seem stable even though vegetation extinction is inevitable. We use this model to show how to exploit the ecological ghosts to avoid collapse. Doing so involves the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation capable of maintaining a stable community once the catastrophic shift condition has been achieved. This intervention method is successfully tested under the presence of demographic stochastic fluctuations. © 2018 The Author(s).

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Irons, Rachel D; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P; Hagelin, Julie C; Blake, Tricia; Doak, Daniel F

2017-04-26

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. © 2017 The Author(s).

Applying and Individual-Based Model to Simultaneously Evaluate Net Ecosystem Production and Tree Diameter Increment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, F. J.

2017-12-01

Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

PubMed Central

Irons, Rachel D.; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P.; Hagelin, Julie C.; Blake, Tricia

2017-01-01

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. PMID:28446701

Predicting ecological flow regime at ungaged sites: A comparison of methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Jennifer C.; Knight, Rodney R.; Wolfe, William J.; Gain, W. Scott

2012-01-01

Nineteen ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics were estimated using published rainfall–runoff and regional regression models for six sites with observed daily streamflow records in Kentucky. The regional regression model produced median estimates closer to the observed median for all but two characteristics. The variability of predictions from both models was generally less than the observed variability. The variability of the predictions from the rainfall–runoff model was greater than that from the regional regression model for all but three characteristics. Eight characteristics predicted by the rainfall–runoff model display positive or negative bias across all six sites; biases are not as pronounced for the regional regression model. Results suggest that a rainfall–runoff model calibrated on a single characteristic is less likely to perform well as a predictor of a range of other characteristics (flow regime) when compared with a regional regression model calibrated individually on multiple characteristics used to represent the flow regime. Poor model performance may misrepresent hydrologic conditions, potentially distorting the perceived risk of ecological degradation. Without prior selection of streamflow characteristics, targeted calibration, and error quantification, the widespread application of general hydrologic models to ecological flow studies is problematic. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-03-01

Aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and predict the trend of soil heavy metal pollution around a~coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in an order of E(Cd) > E(Pb) > E(Cu) > E(Cr) > E(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor led to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, and the fixed number of years exceeding standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metal, and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provide some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent and decrease heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump in Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Reproductive success of a keystone herbivore is more variable and responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity.

PubMed

Iles, David T; Rockwell, Robert F; Koons, David N

2018-07-01

The effects of climate on wild populations are often channelled through species interactions. Population responses to climate variation can therefore differ across habitats, owing to variation in the biotic community. Theory predicts that consumer demography should be less variable and less responsive to climate in habitats with greater resource diversity. We tested these predictions using a long-term study of breeding lesser snow geese along the western coast of Hudson Bay, Manitoba, Canada. Reproductive success was measured in 22 years from 114 locations, in either coastal or inland habitat types. We used Bayesian analysis to estimate the response of reproductive success to climate in each habitat type, along with residual variation not explained by climate. We then quantified gosling diet composition in each habitat type to test the prediction that reproductive success would be less variable and more responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity. Reproductive success responded positively to seasonal warmness, but this response was much stronger in inland habitats than in coastal habitats. Site- and year-level random effects were also three to five times more variable in inland habitats. Simultaneously, land cover diversity and gosling diet diversity were lower in inland habitats. Our study illustrates that spatial variation in resource diversity (and thus, species interactions) can have important effects on consumer responses to climate. In this system, climate change is expected to disproportionately increase the reproductive success of snow geese in vast inland habitats, potentially counteracting management efforts to reduce the abundance of this keystone herbivore. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals in fish: developing exposure indicators and predictive models of effects based on mechanism of action.

PubMed

Ankley, Gerald T; Bencic, David C; Breen, Michael S; Collette, Timothy W; Conolly, Rory B; Denslow, Nancy D; Edwards, Stephen W; Ekman, Drew R; Garcia-Reyero, Natalia; Jensen, Kathleen M; Lazorchak, James M; Martinović, Dalma; Miller, David H; Perkins, Edward J; Orlando, Edward F; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wang, Rong-Lin; Watanabe, Karen H

2009-05-05

Knowledge of possible toxic mechanisms (or modes) of action (MOA) of chemicals can provide valuable insights as to appropriate methods for assessing exposure and effects, thereby reducing uncertainties related to extrapolation across species, endpoints and chemical structure. However, MOA-based testing seldom has been used for assessing the ecological risk of chemicals. This is in part because past regulatory mandates have focused more on adverse effects of chemicals (reductions in survival, growth or reproduction) than the pathways through which these effects are elicited. A recent departure from this involves endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), where there is a need to understand both MOA and adverse outcomes. To achieve this understanding, advances in predictive approaches are required whereby mechanistic changes caused by chemicals at the molecular level can be translated into apical responses meaningful to ecological risk assessment. In this paper we provide an overview and illustrative results from a large, integrated project that assesses the effects of EDCs on two small fish models, the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) and zebrafish (Danio rerio). For this work a systems-based approach is being used to delineate toxicity pathways for 12 model EDCs with different known or hypothesized toxic MOA. The studies employ a combination of state-of-the-art genomic (transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic), bioinformatic and modeling approaches, in conjunction with whole animal testing, to develop response linkages across biological levels of organization. This understanding forms the basis for predictive approaches for species, endpoint and chemical extrapolation. Although our project is focused specifically on EDCs in fish, we believe that the basic conceptual approach has utility for systematically assessing exposure and effects of chemicals with other MOA across a variety of biological systems.

The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz

PubMed Central

Yañez-Arenas, Carlos; Peterson, A. Townsend; Mokondoko, Pierre; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2014-01-01

Background Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low). PMID:24963989

An ecological model of intimate partner violence perpetration at different levels of severity.

PubMed

Smith Slep, Amy M; Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E

2014-08-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health concern. This study proposed and tested an ecological model of both general and clinically significant (i.e., injurious or fear-evoking) IPV perpetration (IPVPerp). Risk and promotive factors from multiple ecological levels of influence (i.e., individual, family, workplace, community) were hypothesized to be important in the prediction of IPVPerp. Although clinically significant IPVPerp and general IPVPerp were hypothesized to relate, specific risks for clinically significant IPVPerp were hypothesized. U.S. Air Force active duty members and civilian spouses (N = 34,861 men; 24,331 women) from 82 sites worldwide completed the 2006 Community Assessment, an anonymous online survey assessing IPVPerp along with a variety of potential risk and promotive factors. Final structural equation models for men and women, cross-validated in holdout samples, clearly supported the relevance of an ecological approach to IPVPerp. Factors from all 4 levels were associated with both general IPVPerp and clinically significant IPVPerp, with relatively distal community and workplace factors operating via more proximal individual and family level variables (e.g., relationship satisfaction). The results suggest a variety of both established and novel potential targets for indirectly targeting general and clinically significant IPVPerp by improving risk profiles at the individual, family, workplace, and community levels.

Phylogeography of a semi-aquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae): an evaluation of historical, geographical and ecological factors.

PubMed

Ye, Zhen; Zhu, Gengping; Damgaard, Jakob; Chen, Xin; Chen, Pingping; Bu, Wenjun

2016-02-29

Subtropical China is a centre of speciation and well known for its high biological diversity and endemism. To understand the impact of historical, geographical and ecological factors on the intraspecific lineage divergence of invertebrates, we examined these processes in a semiaquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae). Three hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENM). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial (COI + COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2). The phylogenic analysis revealed a shallow divergence in mitochondrial data. Clade I was mostly confined to the northern region and clade II was nearly restricted to the southern region. The historical process of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations during the LGM promoted divergence, along with such geographical barriers as the Wuyi, Nanling and Xuefeng mountains and ecological factors of temperature and vegetation type, contributed to these shallow genetic divergences and helped maintain them. The north-south population differentiation probably occurred during the transition from LIG to LGM, with post-LGM population expansion. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM. Our study emphasizes the multiple effects influencing genetic population differentiation, and also contributes to our knowledge of the phylogeography of other aquatic organisms in subtropical China.

Why abundant tropical tree species are phylogenetically old.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Chen, Anping; Fang, Jingyun; Pacala, Stephen W

2013-10-01

Neutral models of species diversity predict patterns of abundance for communities in which all individuals are ecologically equivalent. These models were originally developed for Panamanian trees and successfully reproduce observed distributions of abundance. Neutral models also make macroevolutionary predictions that have rarely been evaluated or tested. Here we show that neutral models predict a humped or flat relationship between species age and population size. In contrast, ages and abundances of tree species in the Panamanian Canal watershed are found to be positively correlated, which falsifies the models. Speciation rates vary among phylogenetic lineages and are partially heritable from mother to daughter species. Variable speciation rates in an otherwise neutral model lead to a demographic advantage for species with low speciation rate. This demographic advantage results in a positive correlation between species age and abundance, as found in the Panamanian tropical forest community.

Understanding entrepreneurial intent in late adolescence: the role of intentional self-regulation and innovation.

PubMed

Geldhof, G John; Weiner, Michelle; Agans, Jennifer P; Mueller, Megan K; Lerner, Richard M

2014-01-01

Entrepreneurship represents a form of adaptive developmental regulation through which both entrepreneurs and their ecologies benefit. We describe entrepreneurship from the perspective of relational developmental systems theory, and examine the joint role of personal attributes, contextual attributes, and characteristics of person-context relationships in predicting entrepreneurial intent in a sample 3,461 college students enrolled in colleges and universities in the United States (60 % female; 61 % European American). Specifically, we tested whether personal characteristics (i.e., gender, intentional self-regulation skills, innovation orientation) and contextual factors (i.e., entrepreneurial parents) predicted college students' intentions to pursue an entrepreneurial career. Our findings suggest that self-regulation, innovation orientation, and having entrepreneurial role models (i.e., parents) predict entrepreneurial intent. Limitations and future directions for the study of youth entrepreneurship are discussed.

An Ecological Systems Approach to Bullying Behaviors among Middle School Students in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chang-Hun

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify an ecological prediction model of bullying behaviors. Based on an ecological systems theory, this study identifies significant factors influencing bullying behaviors at different levels of middle and high school. These levels include the microsystem, mesosystem, exosystem, and macrosystem. More specifically,…

The problem of ecological scaling in spatially complex, nonequilibrium ecological systems [chapter 3

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy Littell; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

In the previous chapter we reviewed the challenges posed by spatial complexity and temporal disequilibrium to efforts to understand and predict the structure and dynamics of ecological systems. The central theme was that spatial variability in the environment and population processes fundamentally alters the interactions between species and their environments, largely...

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Thematic and Spatial Resolutions Affect Model-Based Predictions of Tree Species Distribution

PubMed Central

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution. PMID:23861828

Testing basic ecological, evolutionary, and biogeographical principles using invasive species

Treesearch

Cynthia D. Huebner

2006-01-01

Sax et al. argue in Species Invasions: Insights into Ecology, Evolution, and Biogeography that species invasion is an on-going experiment and a research tool with which to test fundamental ecology, evolution, and biogeography tenets.

Corticosterone stress response shows long-term repeatability and links to personality in free-living Nazca boobies.

PubMed

Grace, Jacquelyn K; Anderson, David J

2014-11-01

The concept of "coping styles", or consistently different responses to stressors, is of broad interest in behavioral ecology and biomedicine. Two critical predictions of this concept are individual consistency of neurophysiological and behavioral responses (relative to population variability) and a negative relationship between aggression/proactivity and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis reactivity. Recent studies failed to provide strong support for these predictions, especially outside of strictly controlled conditions, and long-term measures to test the first prediction are rare. Here, we demonstrate individual repeatability across 2-3years of maximum circulating corticosterone concentration [CORT] and area under the [CORT] response curve (AUCI) during a standard capture-restraint test in wild, free-living adult Nazca boobies (Sula granti). We also show that the stress response predicts the personality traits aggression and anxiety in these birds (measured in the wild); however, the strength of these results was weak. Maximum [CORT] and AUCI showed higher repeatability between years than baseline [CORT]. After controlling breeding status, sex, mass, date sampled, and their interactions, baseline [CORT] was most closely related to personality traits, followed by AUCI, and then maximum [CORT]. The direction of these relationships depended on whether the testing context was social or non-social. [CORT] parameters had little to no relationship with cross-context plasticity in personality traits. Our results generally affirm two critical predictions of coping styles, but match the emerging trend that these relationships are weak in the wild, and may depend on testing context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

PubMed

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Testing Bayesian and heuristic predictions of mass judgments of colliding objects

PubMed Central

Sanborn, Adam N.

2014-01-01

Mass judgments of colliding objects have been used to explore people's understanding of the physical world because they are ecologically relevant, yet people display biases that are most easily explained by a small set of heuristics. Recent work has challenged the heuristic explanation, by producing the same biases from a model that copes with perceptual uncertainty by using Bayesian inference with a prior based on the correct combination rules from Newtonian mechanics (noisy Newton). Here I test the predictions of the leading heuristic model (Gilden and Proffitt, 1989) against the noisy Newton model using a novel manipulation of the standard mass judgment task: making one of the objects invisible post-collision. The noisy Newton model uses the remaining information to predict above-chance performance, while the leading heuristic model predicts chance performance when one or the other final velocity is occluded. An experiment using two different types of occlusion showed better-than-chance performance and response patterns that followed the predictions of the noisy Newton model. The results demonstrate that people can make sensible physical judgments even when information critical for the judgment is missing, and that a Bayesian model can serve as a guide in these situations. Possible algorithmic-level accounts of this task that more closely correspond to the noisy Newton model are explored. PMID:25206345

An empirical comparison of knowledge and skill in the context of traditional ecological knowledge

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background We test whether traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) about how to make an item predicts a person’s skill at making it among the Tsimane’ (Bolivia). The rationale for this research is that the failure to distinguish between knowledge and skill might account for some of the conflicting results about the relationships between TEK, human health, and economic development. Methods We test the association between a commonly-used measure of individual knowledge (cultural consensus analysis) about how to make an arrow or a bag and a measure of individual skill at making these items, using ordinary least-squares regression. The study consists of 43 participants from 3 villages. Results We find no association between our measures of knowledge and skill (core model, p > 0.5, R 2  = .132). Conclusions While we cannot rule out the possibility of a real association between these phenomena, we interpret our findings as support for the claim that researchers should distinguish between methods to measure knowledge and skill when studying trends in TEK. PMID:24131733

Rapid evolution mitigates the ecological consequences of an invasive species (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Gillis, Michael K; Walsh, Matthew R

2017-07-12

Invasive species have extensive negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health. Novel species also drive contemporary evolution in many native populations, which could mitigate or amplify their impacts on ecosystems. The predatory zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus invaded lakes in Wisconsin, USA, in 2009. This invasion caused precipitous declines in zooplankton prey ( Daphnia pulicaria ), with cascading impacts on ecosystem services (water clarity). Here, we tested the link between Bythotrephes invasion, evolution in Daphnia and post-invasion ecological dynamics using 15 years of long-term data in conjunction with comparative experiments. Invasion by Bythotrephes is associated with rapid increases in the body size of Daphnia Laboratory experiments revealed that such shifts have a genetic component; third-generation laboratory-reared Daphnia from 'invaded' lakes are significantly larger and exhibit greater reproductive effort than individuals from 'uninvaded' lakes. This trajectory of evolution should accelerate Daphnia population growth and enhance population persistence. We tested this prediction by comparing analyses of long-term data with laboratory-based simulations, and show that rapid evolution in Daphnia is associated with increased population growth in invaded lakes. © 2017 The Authors.

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: A global test using lizards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, L.B.; Rodda, G.H.; Jetz, W.

2008-01-01

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales. ?? 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological constraints influence the emergence of cooperative breeding when population dynamics determine the fitness of helpers.

PubMed

McLeod, David V; Wild, Geoff

2013-11-01

Cooperative breeding is a system in which certain individuals facilitate the production of offspring by others. The ecological constraints hypothesis states that ecological conditions deter individuals from breeding independently, and so individuals breed cooperatively to make the best of a bad situation. Current theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis is lacking. We formulate a mathematical model that emphasizes the underlying ecology of cooperative breeders. Our goal is to derive theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis using an ecological model of population dynamics. We consider a population composed of two kinds of individuals, nonbreeders (auxiliaries) and breeders. We suppose that help provided by an auxiliary increases breeder fecundity, but reduces the probability with which the auxiliary becomes a breeder. Our main result is a condition that guarantees success of auxiliary help. We predict that increasing the cost of dispersal promotes helping, in agreement with verbal theory. We also predict that increasing breeder mortality can either hinder helping (at high population densities), or promote it (at low population densities). We conclude that ecological constraints can exert influence over the evolution of auxiliary help when population dynamics are considered; moreover, that influence need not coincide with direct fitness benefits as previously found. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Simply criminal: predicting burglars' occupancy decisions with a simple heuristic.

PubMed

Snook, Brent; Dhami, Mandeep K; Kavanagh, Jennifer M

2011-08-01

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin's Rule captured burglars' decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars' decisions than Franklin's Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin's Rule. The most important cue in burglars' models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.

Ecological divergence and medial cuneiform morphology in gorillas.

PubMed

Tocheri, Matthew W; Solhan, Christyna R; Orr, Caley M; Femiani, John; Frohlich, Bruno; Groves, Colin P; Harcourt-Smith, William E; Richmond, Brian G; Shoelson, Brett; Jungers, William L

2011-02-01

Gorillas are more closely related to each other than to any other extant primate and are all terrestrial knuckle-walkers, but taxa differ along a gradient of dietary strategies and the frequency of arboreality in their behavioral repertoire. In this study, we test the hypothesis that medial cuneiform morphology falls on a morphocline in gorillas that tracks function related to hallucial abduction ability and relative frequency of arboreality. This morphocline predicts that western gorillas, being the most arboreal, should display a medial cuneiform anatomy that reflects the greatest hallucial abduction ability, followed by grauer gorillas, and then by mountain gorillas. Using a three-dimensional methodology to measure angles between articular surfaces, relative articular and nonarticular areas, and the curvatures of the hallucial articular surface, the functional predictions are partially confirmed in separating western gorillas from both eastern gorillas. Western gorillas are characterized by a more medially oriented, proportionately larger, and more mediolaterally curved hallucial facet than are eastern gorillas. These characteristics follow the predictions for a more prehensile hallux in western gorillas relative to a more stable, plantigrade hallux in eastern gorillas. The characteristics that distinguish eastern gorilla taxa from one another appear unrelated to hallucial abduction ability or frequency of arboreality. In total, this reexamination of medial cuneiform morphology suggests differentiation between eastern and western gorillas due to a longstanding ecological divergence and more recent and possibly non-adaptive differences between eastern taxa. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ecological Factors Predict Transition Readiness/Self-Management in Youth With Chronic Conditions.

PubMed

Javalkar, Karina; Johnson, Meredith; Kshirsagar, Abhijit V; Ocegueda, Sofia; Detwiler, Randal K; Ferris, Maria

2016-01-01

Health care transition readiness or self-management among adolescents and young adults (AYA) with chronic conditions may be influenced by factors related to their surrounding environment. Study participants were AYA diagnosed with a chronic condition and evaluated at pediatric- and adult-focused subspecialty clinics at the University of North Carolina Hospital Systems. All participants were administered a provider-administered self-management/transition-readiness tool, the UNC TRxANSITION Scale. Geographic area and associated characteristics (ecological factors) were identified for each participant's ZIP code using the published U.S. Census data. The Level 1 model of the hierarchical linear regression used individual-level predictors of transition readiness/self-management. The Level 2 model incorporated the ecological factors. We enrolled 511 AYA with different chronic conditions aged 12-31 years with the following characteristics: mean age of 20± 4 years, 45% white, 42% black, and 54% female. Participants represented 214 ZIP codes in or around North Carolina, USA. The Level 1 model showed that age, gender, and race were significant predictors of transition readiness/self-management. On adding the ecological factors in the Level 2 model, race was no longer significant. Participants from a geographic area with a greater percentage of females (β = .114, p = .005) and a higher median income (β = .126, p = .002) had greater overall transition readiness. Ecological factors also predicted subdomains of transition readiness/self-management. In this cohort of adolescents and young adults with different chronic conditions, ecological disparities such as sex composition, median income, and language predict self-management/transition readiness. It is important to take ecological risk factors into consideration when preparing patients for health self-management or transition. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological Assets and Academic Procrastination among Adolescents: The Mediating Role of Commitment to Learning.

PubMed

Chen, Bin-Bin; Han, Wen

2017-01-01

Academic procrastination is defined as a purposive delay of academic tasks that must be completed. Within the framework of the ecological model of resiliency, this study examined how ecological assets were related to academic procrastination among adolescents. Participants in the study were 577 adolescents (53.5% boys) from Shanghai, China. They completed measures of ecological assets, commitment to learning, and academic procrastination. Structural equation modeling revealed that, as predicted, ecological assets were negatively associated with academic procrastination. In addition, commitment to learning fully mediated the association between ecological assets and academic procrastination. Implications of the present findings are discussed.

Ecological Assets and Academic Procrastination among Adolescents: The Mediating Role of Commitment to Learning

PubMed Central

Chen, Bin-Bin; Han, Wen

2017-01-01

Academic procrastination is defined as a purposive delay of academic tasks that must be completed. Within the framework of the ecological model of resiliency, this study examined how ecological assets were related to academic procrastination among adolescents. Participants in the study were 577 adolescents (53.5% boys) from Shanghai, China. They completed measures of ecological assets, commitment to learning, and academic procrastination. Structural equation modeling revealed that, as predicted, ecological assets were negatively associated with academic procrastination. In addition, commitment to learning fully mediated the association between ecological assets and academic procrastination. Implications of the present findings are discussed. PMID:29379451

Deriving predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) for emerging contaminants in the river Po, Italy, using three approaches: Assessment factor, species sensitivity distribution and AQUATOX ecosystem modelling.

PubMed

Gredelj, Andrea; Barausse, Alberto; Grechi, Laura; Palmeri, Luca

2018-06-20

Over the past decades, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) found in environmental matrices worldwide have raised concerns due to their toxicity, ubiquity and persistence. A widespread pollution of groundwater and surface waters caused by PFASs in Northern Italy has been recently discovered, becoming a major environmental issue, also because the exact risk for humans and nature posed by this contamination is unclear. Here, the Po River in Northern Italy was selected as a study area to assess the ecological risk posed by perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), a class of PFASs, considering the noticeable concentration of various PFAAs detected in the Po waters over the past years. Moreover, the Po has a large environmental and socio-economic importance: it is the largest Italian river and drains a densely inhabited, intensely cultivated and heavily industrialized watershed. Predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived using two regulated methodologies, assessment factors (AFs) and species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which rely on published ecotoxicological laboratory tests. Results were compared to those of a novel methodology using the mechanistic ecosystem model AQUATOX to compute PNECs in an ecologically-sound manner, i.e. considering physical, chemical, biological and ecological processes in the river. The model was used to quantify how the biomasses of the modelled taxa in the river food web deviated from natural conditions due to varying inputs of the chemicals. PNEC for each chemical was defined as the lowest chemical concentration causing a non-negligible yearly biomass loss for a simulated taxon with respect to a control simulation. The investigated PFAAs were Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and Perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as long-chained compounds, and Perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) and Perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS) as short-chained homologues. Two emerging contaminants, Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate (LAS) and triclosan, were also studied to assess the performance of the three methodologies for chemicals whose ecotoxicology and environmental fate are well-studied. The most precautionary approach was the use of AFs generally followed by SSD and then AQUATOX, except for PFOS, for which AQUATOX yielded a much lower PNEC compared to the other approaches since, unlike the other two methodologies, it explicitly simulates sublethal toxicity and indirect ecological effects. Our findings highlight that neglecting the role of ecological processes when extrapolating from laboratory tests to ecosystems can result in under-protective threshold concentrations for chemicals. Ecosystem models can complement existing laboratory-based methodologies, and the use of multiple methods for deriving PNECs can help to clarify uncertainty in ecological risk estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the ecological site group concept

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2016 “Ecological Sites for Landscape Management” special issue of Rangelands recommended an update to our thinking of Ecological Sites, suggesting that in our desire to make Ecological Sites more quantitative, we abandoned consideration of Ecological Sites’ spatial context. In response, Ecologic...

[Ecology suitability study of Chinese materia medica Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix].

PubMed

Lu, You-Yuan; Yang, Yan-Mei; Ma, Xiao-Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Zhu, Shou-Dong; Jin, Ling

2016-09-01

This paper is aimed to predict ecology suitability distribution of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix and search the main ecological factors affecting the suitability distribution. The 313 distribution information about G. macrophylla, 186 distribution information about G. straminea, 343 distribution information about G. dauricaand 131 distribution information about G. crasicaulis were collected though investigation and network sharing platform data . The ecology suitable distribution factors for production Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix was analyzed respectively by the software of ArcGIS and MaxEnt with 55 environmental factors. The result of MaxEnt prediction was very well (AUC was above 0.9). The results of predominant factors analysis showed that precipitation and altitude were all the major factors impacting the ecology suitable of Getiana Macrophylla Radix production. G. macrophylla ecology suitable region was mainly concentrated in south of Gansu, Shanxi, central of Shaanxi and east of Qinghai provinces. G. straminea ecology suitable region was mainly concentrated in southwest of Gansu, east of Qinghai, north and northwest of Sichuan, east of Xizang province. G. daurica ecology suitable region was mainly concentrated in south and southwest of Gansu, east of Qinghai, Shanxi and north of Shaanxi province. G. crasicaulis ecology suitable region was mainly concentrated in Sichuan and north of Yunnan, east of Xizang, south of Gansu and east of Qinghai province. The ecological suitability distribution result of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix was consistent with each species actual distribution. The study could provide reference for the collection and protection of wild resources, meanwhile, provide the basis for the selection of cultivation area of Gentiana Macrophylla Radix. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Impact of temperature on performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon, Bradypodion pumilum and B. occidentale.

PubMed

Segall, Marion; Tolley, Krystal A; Vanhooydonck, Bieke; Measey, G John; Herrel, Anthony

2013-10-15

Temperature is an extrinsic factor that influences reptile behavior because of its impact on reptile physiology. Understanding the impact of temperature on performance traits is important as it may affect the ecology and fitness of ectothermic animals such as reptiles. Here, we examined the temperature dependence of performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon (Bradypodion): one adapted to a semi-arid environment and one to a mesic environment. Ecologically relevant performance traits were tested at different temperatures to evaluate their thermal dependence, and temperature-performance breadths for 80% and 90% of each performance trait were calculated. Our results show distinct differences in the thermal dependence of speed- versus force-related performance traits. Moreover, our results show that the semi-arid species is better adapted to higher temperatures and as such has a better chance of coping with the predicted increases in environmental temperature. The mesic area-adapted species seems to be more sensitive to an increase in temperature and could therefore potentially be threatened by the predicted future climate change. However, further studies investigating the potential for acclimation in chameleons are needed to better understand how animals may respond to future climate change.

Defence mechanisms: the role of physiology in current and future environmental protection paradigms

PubMed Central

Glover, Chris N

2018-01-01

Abstract Ecological risk assessments principally rely on simplified metrics of organismal sensitivity that do not consider mechanism or biological traits. As such, they are unable to adequately extrapolate from standard laboratory tests to real-world settings, and largely fail to account for the diversity of organisms and environmental variables that occur in natural environments. However, an understanding of how stressors influence organism health can compensate for these limitations. Mechanistic knowledge can be used to account for species differences in basal biological function and variability in environmental factors, including spatial and temporal changes in the chemical, physical and biological milieu. Consequently, physiological understanding of biological function, and how this is altered by stressor exposure, can facilitate proactive, predictive risk assessment. In this perspective article, existing frameworks that utilize physiological knowledge (e.g. biotic ligand models, adverse outcomes pathways and mechanistic effect models), are outlined, and specific examples of how mechanistic understanding has been used to predict risk are highlighted. Future research approaches and data needs for extending the incorporation of physiological information into ecological risk assessments are discussed. Although the review focuses on chemical toxicants in aquatic systems, physical and biological stressors and terrestrial environments are also briefly considered. PMID:29564135

Historical contingency and ecological determinism interact to prime speciation in sticklebacks, Gasterosteus.

PubMed Central

Taylor, E B; McPhail, J D

2000-01-01

Historical contingency and determinism are often cast as opposing paradigms under which evolutionary diversification operates. It may be, however, that both factors act together to promote evolutionary divergence, although there are few examples of such interaction in nature. We tested phylogenetic predictions of an explicit historical model of divergence (double invasions of freshwater by marine ancestors) in sympatric species of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) where determinism has been implicated as an important factor driving evolutionary novelty. Microsatellite DNA variation at six loci revealed relatively low genetic variation in freshwater populations, supporting the hypothesis that they were derived by colonization of freshwater by more diverse marine ancestors. Phylogenetic and genetic distance analyses suggested that pairs of sympatric species have evolved multiple times, further implicating determinism as a factor in speciation. Our data also supported predictions based on the hypothesis that the evolution of sympatric species was contingent upon 'double invasions' of postglacial lakes by ancestral marine sticklebacks. Sympatric sticklebacks, therefore, provide an example of adaptive radiation by determinism contingent upon historical conditions promoting unique ecological interactions, and illustrate how contingency and determinism may interact to generate geographical variation in species diversity PMID:11133026

The role of ecological opportunity in shaping disparate diversification trajectories in a bicontinental primate radiation

PubMed Central

Tran, Lucy A. P.

2014-01-01

Exceptional species and phenotypic diversity commonly are attributed to ecological opportunity (EO). The conventional EO model predicts that rates of lineage diversification and phenotypic evolution are elevated early in a radiation only to decline later in response to niche availability. Foregut fermentation is hypothesized to be a key innovation that allowed colobine monkeys (subfamily Colobinae), the only primates with this trait, to successfully colonize folivore adaptive zones unavailable to other herbivorous species. Therefore, diversification rates also are expected to be strongly linked with the evolution of traits related to folivory in these monkeys. Using dated molecular phylogenies and a dataset of feeding morphology, I test predictions of the EO model to evaluate the role of EO conferred by foregut fermentation in shaping the African and Asian colobine radiations. Findings from diversification methods coupled with colobine biogeographic history provide compelling evidence that decreasing availability of new adaptive zones during colonization of Asia together with constraints presented by dietary specialization underlie temporal changes in diversification in the Asian but not African clade. Additionally, departures from the EO model likely reflect iterative diversification events in Asia. PMID:24598417

Correlates of androgens in wild male Barbary macaques: Testing the challenge hypothesis.

PubMed

Rincon, Alan V; Maréchal, Laëtitia; Semple, Stuart; Majolo, Bonaventura; MacLarnon, Ann

2017-10-01

Investigating causes and consequences of variation in hormonal expression is a key focus in behavioral ecology. Many studies have explored patterns of secretion of the androgen testosterone in male vertebrates, using the challenge hypothesis (Wingfield, Hegner, Dufty, & Ball, 1990; The American Naturalist, 136(6), 829-846) as a theoretical framework. Rather than the classic association of testosterone with male sexual behavior, this hypothesis predicts that high levels of testosterone are associated with male-male reproductive competition but also inhibit paternal care. The hypothesis was originally developed for birds, and subsequently tested in other vertebrate taxa, including primates. Such studies have explored the link between testosterone and reproductive aggression as well as other measures of mating competition, or between testosterone and aspects of male behavior related to the presence of infants. Very few studies have simultaneously investigated the links between testosterone and male aggression, other aspects of mating competition and infant-related behavior. We tested predictions derived from the challenge hypothesis in wild male Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus), a species with marked breeding seasonality and high levels of male-infant affiliation, providing a powerful test of this theoretical framework. Over 11 months, 251 hr of behavioral observations and 296 fecal samples were collected from seven adult males in the Middle Atlas Mountains, Morocco. Fecal androgen levels rose before the onset of the mating season, during a period of rank instability, and were positively related to group mating activity across the mating season. Androgen levels were unrelated to rates of male-male aggression in any period, but higher ranked males had higher levels in both the mating season and in the period of rank instability. Lower androgen levels were associated with increased rates of male-infant grooming during the mating and unstable periods. Our results generally support the challenge hypothesis and highlight the importance of considering individual species' behavioral ecology when testing this framework. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

From theory to experimental design-Quantifying a trait-based theory of predator-prey dynamics.

PubMed

Laubmeier, A N; Wootton, Kate; Banks, J E; Bommarco, Riccardo; Curtsdotter, Alva; Jonsson, Tomas; Roslin, Tomas; Banks, H T

2018-01-01

Successfully applying theoretical models to natural communities and predicting ecosystem behavior under changing conditions is the backbone of predictive ecology. However, the experiments required to test these models are dictated by practical constraints, and models are often opportunistically validated against data for which they were never intended. Alternatively, we can inform and improve experimental design by an in-depth pre-experimental analysis of the model, generating experiments better targeted at testing the validity of a theory. Here, we describe this process for a specific experiment. Starting from food web ecological theory, we formulate a model and design an experiment to optimally test the validity of the theory, supplementing traditional design considerations with model analysis. The experiment itself will be run and described in a separate paper. The theory we test is that trophic population dynamics are dictated by species traits, and we study this in a community of terrestrial arthropods. We depart from the Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) model and hypothesize that including habitat use, in addition to body mass, is necessary to better model trophic interactions. We therefore formulate new terms which account for micro-habitat use as well as intra- and interspecific interference in the ATN model. We design an experiment and an effective sampling regime to test this model and the underlying assumptions about the traits dominating trophic interactions. We arrive at a detailed sampling protocol to maximize information content in the empirical data obtained from the experiment and, relying on theoretical analysis of the proposed model, explore potential shortcomings of our design. Consequently, since this is a "pre-experimental" exercise aimed at improving the links between hypothesis formulation, model construction, experimental design and data collection, we hasten to publish our findings before analyzing data from the actual experiment, thus setting the stage for strong inference.

Linking manipulative experiments to field data to test the dilution effect.

PubMed

Venesky, Matthew D; Liu, Xuan; Sauer, Erin L; Rohr, Jason R

2014-05-01

The dilution effect, the hypothesis that biodiversity reduces disease risk, has received support in many systems. However, few dilution effect studies have linked mechanistic experiments to field patterns to establish both causality and ecological relevance. We conducted a series of laboratory experiments and tested the dilution effect hypothesis in an amphibian-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system and tested for consistency between our laboratory experiments and field patterns of amphibian species richness, host identity and Bd prevalence. In our laboratory experiments, we show that tadpoles can filter feed Bd zoospores and that the degree of suspension feeding was positively associated with their dilution potential. The obligate suspension feeder, Gastrophryne carolinensis, generally diluted the risk of chytridiomycosis for tadpoles of Bufo terrestris and Hyla cinerea, whereas tadpoles of B. terrestris (an obligate benthos feeder) generally amplified infections for the other species. In addition, G. carolinensis reduced Bd abundance on H. cinerea more so in the presence than absence of B. terrestris and B. terrestris amplified Bd abundance on H. cinerea more so in the absence than presence of G. carolinensis. Also, when ignoring species identity, species richness was a significant negative predictor of Bd abundance. In our analysis of field data, the presence of Bufo spp. and Gastrophryne spp. were significant positive and negative predictors of Bd prevalence, respectively, even after controlling for climate, vegetation, anthropogenic factors (human footprint), species richness and sampling effort. These patterns of dilution and amplification supported our laboratory findings, demonstrating that the results are likely ecologically relevant. The results from our laboratory and field data support the dilution effect hypothesis and also suggest that dilution and amplification are predictable based on host traits. Our study is among the first to link manipulative experiments, in which a potential dilution mechanism is supported, with analyses of field data on species richness, host identity, spatial autocorrelation and disease prevalence. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Reverse Ecology: from systems to environments and back.

PubMed

Levy, Roie; Borenstein, Elhanan

2012-01-01

The structure of complex biological systems reflects not only their function but also the environments in which they evolved and are adapted to. Reverse Ecology-an emerging new frontier in Evolutionary Systems Biology-aims to extract this information and to obtain novel insights into an organism's ecology. The Reverse Ecology framework facilitates the translation of high-throughput genomic data into large-scale ecological data, and has the potential to transform ecology into a high-throughput field. In this chapter, we describe some of the pioneering work in Reverse Ecology, demonstrating how system-level analysis of complex biological networks can be used to predict the natural habitats of poorly characterized microbial species, their interactions with other species, and universal patterns governing the adaptation of organisms to their environments. We further present several studies that applied Reverse Ecology to elucidate various aspects of microbial ecology, and lay out exciting future directions and potential future applications in biotechnology, biomedicine, and ecological engineering.

A dominance-based approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; D. Barry Lyons; Mark Ducey; Klaus Koehler

2012-01-01

Aim Uncertainty has been widely recognized as one of the most critical issues in predicting the expansion of ecological invasions. The uncertainty associated with the introduction and spread of invasive organisms influences how pest management decision makers respond to expanding incursions. We present a model-based approach to map risk of ecological invasions that...

Covariations in ecological scaling laws fostered by community dynamics.

PubMed

Zaoli, Silvia; Giometto, Andrea; Maritan, Amos; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-03

Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and theoreticians. Empirical evidence exists of power laws associated with the number of species inhabiting an ecosystem, their abundances, and traits. Although their functional form appears to be ubiquitous, empirical scaling exponents vary with ecosystem type and resource supply rate. The idea that ecological scaling laws are linked has been entertained before, but the full extent of macroecological pattern covariations, the role of the constraints imposed by finite resource supply, and a comprehensive empirical verification are still unexplored. Here, we propose a theoretical scaling framework that predicts the linkages of several macroecological patterns related to species' abundances and body sizes. We show that such a framework is consistent with the stationary-state statistics of a broad class of resource-limited community dynamics models, regardless of parameterization and model assumptions. We verify predicted theoretical covariations by contrasting empirical data and provide testable hypotheses for yet unexplored patterns. We thus place the observed variability of ecological scaling exponents into a coherent statistical framework where patterns in ecology embed constrained fluctuations.

Management applications of discontinuity theory | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

1.Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. 2.We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. 3.Synthesis and applications. We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation This manuscript provides insight on using discontinuity approaches to aid in managing complex ecological systems. In part

Ecology and geography of transmission of two bat-borne rabies lineages in Chile.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Peterson, A Townsend; Favi, Myriam; Yung, Verónica; Pons, Daniel J; Medina-Vogel, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

Rabies was known to humans as a disease thousands of years ago. In America, insectivorous bats are natural reservoirs of rabies virus. The bat species Tadarida brasiliensis and Lasiurus cinereus, with their respective, host-specific rabies virus variants AgV4 and AgV6, are the principal rabies reservoirs in Chile. However, little is known about the roles of bat species in the ecology and geographic distribution of the virus. This contribution aims to address a series of questions regarding the ecology of rabies transmission in Chile. Analyzing records from 1985-2011 at the Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile (ISP) and using ecological niche modeling, we address these questions to help in understanding rabies-bat ecological dynamics in South America. We found ecological niche identity between both hosts and both viral variants, indicating that niches of all actors in the system are undifferentiated, although the viruses do not necessarily occupy the full geographic distributions of their hosts. Bat species and rabies viruses share similar niches, and our models had significant predictive power even across unsampled regions; results thus suggest that outbreaks may occur under consistent, stable, and predictable circumstances.

Ecology and Geography of Transmission of Two Bat-Borne Rabies Lineages in Chile

PubMed Central

Escobar, Luis E.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Favi, Myriam; Yung, Verónica; Pons, Daniel J.; Medina-Vogel, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

Rabies was known to humans as a disease thousands of years ago. In America, insectivorous bats are natural reservoirs of rabies virus. The bat species Tadarida brasiliensis and Lasiurus cinereus, with their respective, host-specific rabies virus variants AgV4 and AgV6, are the principal rabies reservoirs in Chile. However, little is known about the roles of bat species in the ecology and geographic distribution of the virus. This contribution aims to address a series of questions regarding the ecology of rabies transmission in Chile. Analyzing records from 1985–2011 at the Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile (ISP) and using ecological niche modeling, we address these questions to help in understanding rabies-bat ecological dynamics in South America. We found ecological niche identity between both hosts and both viral variants, indicating that niches of all actors in the system are undifferentiated, although the viruses do not necessarily occupy the full geographic distributions of their hosts. Bat species and rabies viruses share similar niches, and our models had significant predictive power even across unsampled regions; results thus suggest that outbreaks may occur under consistent, stable, and predictable circumstances. PMID:24349592

Potential application of ecological models in the European environmental risk assessment of chemicals. I. Review of protection goals in EU directives and regulations.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; Galic, Nika; van den Brink, Paul J

2010-07-01

Several European directives and regulations address the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. We used the protection of freshwater ecosystems against plant protection products, biocidal products, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals and priority substances under the Water Framework Directive as examples to explore the potential of ecological effect models for a refined risk assessment. Our analysis of the directives, regulations, and related guidance documents lead us to distinguish the following 5 areas for the application of ecological models in chemical risk assessment: 1) Extrapolation of organism-level effects to the population level: The protection goals are formulated in general terms, e.g., avoiding "unacceptable effects" or "adverse impact" on the environment or the "viability of exposed species." In contrast, most of the standard ecotoxicological tests provide data only on organism-level endpoints and are thus not directly linked to the protection goals which focus on populations and communities. 2) Extrapolation of effects between different exposure profiles: Especially for plant protection products, exposure profiles can be very variable and impossible to cover in toxicological tests. 3) Extrapolation of recovery processes: As a consequence of the often short-term exposures to plant protection products, the risk assessment is based on the community recovery principle. On the other hand, assessments under the other directives assume a more or less constant exposure and are based on the ecosystem threshold principle. 4) Analysis and prediction of indirect effects: Because effects on 1 or a few taxa might have consequences on other taxa that are not directly affected by the chemical, such indirect effects on communities have to be considered. 5) Prediction of bioaccumulation within food chains: All directives take the possibility of bioaccumulation, and thus secondary poisoning within the food chain, into account. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Community regulation: the relative importance of recruitment and predation intensity of an intertidal community dominant in a seascape context.

PubMed

Rilov, Gil; Schiel, David R

2011-01-01

Predicting the strength and context-dependency of species interactions across multiple scales is a core area in ecology. This is especially challenging in the marine environment, where populations of most predators and prey are generally open, because of their pelagic larval phase, and recruitment of both is highly variable. In this study we use a comparative-experimental approach on small and large spatial scales to test the relationship between predation intensity and prey recruitment and their relative importance in shaping populations of a dominant rocky intertidal space occupier, mussels, in the context of seascape (availability of nearby subtidal reef habitat). Predation intensity on transplanted mussels was tested inside and outside cages and recruitment was measured with standard larval settlement collectors. We found that on intertidal rocky benches with contiguous subtidal reefs in New Zealand, mussel larval recruitment is usually low but predation on recruits by subtidal consumers (fish, crabs) is intense during high tide. On nearby intertidal rocky benches with adjacent sandy subtidal habitats, larval recruitment is usually greater but subtidal predators are typically rare and predation is weaker. Multiple regression analysis showed that predation intensity accounts for most of the variability in the abundance of adult mussels compared to recruitment. This seascape-dependent, predation-recruitment relationship could scale up to explain regional community variability. We argue that community ecology models should include seascape context-dependency and its effects on recruitment and species interactions for better predictions of coastal community dynamics and structure.

About the Mid-Continent Ecology Division (MED) of EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Mid-Continent Ecology Division (MED) conducts innovative research and predictive modeling to document and forecast the effects of pollutants on the integrity of watersheds and freshwater ecosystems.

How ecology shapes exploitation: a framework to predict the behavioural response of human and animal foragers along exploration-exploitation trade-offs.

PubMed

Monk, Christopher T; Barbier, Matthieu; Romanczuk, Pawel; Watson, James R; Alós, Josep; Nakayama, Shinnosuke; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Levin, Simon A; Arlinghaus, Robert

2018-06-01

Understanding how humans and other animals behave in response to changes in their environments is vital for predicting population dynamics and the trajectory of coupled social-ecological systems. Here, we present a novel framework for identifying emergent social behaviours in foragers (including humans engaged in fishing or hunting) in predator-prey contexts based on the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of a renewable natural resource. A qualitative framework is introduced that predicts when foragers should behave territorially, search collectively, act independently or switch among these states. To validate it, we derived quantitative predictions from two models of different structure: a generic mathematical model, and a lattice-based evolutionary model emphasising exploitation and exclusion costs. These models independently identified that the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of the natural resource controls the social behaviour of resource exploiters. Our theoretical predictions were finally compared to a diverse set of empirical cases focusing on fisheries and aquatic organisms across a range of taxa, substantiating the framework's predictions. Understanding social behaviour for given social-ecological characteristics has important implications, particularly for the design of governance structures and regulations to move exploited systems, such as fisheries, towards sustainability. Our framework provides concrete steps in this direction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Integrating ecology into biotechnology.

PubMed

McMahon, Katherine D; Martin, Hector Garcia; Hugenholtz, Philip

2007-06-01

New high-throughput culture-independent molecular tools are allowing the scientific community to characterize and understand the microbial communities underpinning environmental biotechnology processes in unprecedented ways. By creatively leveraging these new data sources, microbial ecology has the potential to transition from a purely descriptive to a predictive framework, in which ecological principles are integrated and exploited to engineer systems that are biologically optimized for the desired goal. But to achieve this goal, ecology, engineering and microbiology curricula need to be changed from the very root to better promote interdisciplinarity.

Ecological Forecasting of Vibrio sp. in U.S. Coastal Waters Using an Operational Platform, a Pilot Project of the NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap. Development of Web based Tools and Forecasts to Help the Public Avoid Exposure to Vibrio vulnificus and Shell Fish Harvesters Avoid Dangerous Concentrations of Vibrio parahaemolyticus.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, R. M.; Jacobs, J. M.; Paranjpye, R.; Lanerolle, L. W.

2016-02-01

The Pathogens group of the NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap has begun a range of efforts to monitor and predict potential pathogen occurrences in shellfish and in U.S. Coastal waters. NOAA/NCOSS along with NMFS/NWFSC have led the Pathogens group and the development of web based tools and forecasts for both Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. A strong relationship with FDA has allowed the team to develop forecasts that will serve U.S. shellfish harvesters and consumers. NOAA/NOS/CSDL has provided modeling expertise to help the group use the hydrodynamic models and their forecasts of physical variables that drive the ecological predictions. The NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center has enabled these ecological forecasting efforts by providing the infrastructure, computing knowledge and experience in an operational culture. Daily forecasts have been demonstrated and are available from the web for the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Northern Gulf of Mexico, Tampa Bay, Puget Sound and Long Island Sound. The forecast systems run on a daily basis being fed by NOS model data from the NWS/NCEP super computers. New forecast tools including V. parahaemolyticus post harvest growth and doubling time in ambient air temperature will be described.

Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

PubMed Central

Barro, Alassane S.; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K.

2016-01-01

The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. PMID:27280981

Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

PubMed

Barro, Alassane S; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K

2016-06-01

The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

REINFORCEMENT OF STICKLEBACK MATE PREFERENCES: SYMPATRY BREEDS CONTEMPT.

PubMed

Rundle, Howard D; Schluter, Dolph

1998-02-01

Detailed studies of reproductive isolation and how it varies among populations can provide valuable insight into the mechanisms of speciation. Here we investigate how the strength of premating isolation varies between sympatric and allopatric populations of threespine sticklebacks to test a prediction of the hypothesis of reinforcement: that interspecific mate discrimination should be stronger in sympatry than in allopatry. In conducting such tests, it is important to control for ecological character displacement between sympatric species because ecological character divergence may strengthen prezygotic isolation as a by-product. We control for ecological character displacement by comparing mate preferences of females from a sympatric population (benthics) with mate preferences of females from two allopatric populations that most closely resemble the sympatric benthic females in ecology and morphology. No-choice mating trials indicate that sympatric benthic females mate less readily with heterospecific (limnetic) than conspecific (benthic) males, whereas two different populations of allopatric females resembling benthics show no such discrimination. These differences demonstrate reproductive character displacement of benthic female mate choice. Previous studies have established that hybridization between sympatric species occurred in the past in the wild and that hybrid offspring have lower fitness than either parental species, thus providing conditions under which natural selection would favor individuals that do not hybridize. Results are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that female mate preferences have evolved as a response to reduced hybrid fitness (reinforcement), although direct effects of sympatry or a biased extinction process could also produce the pattern. Males of the other sympatric species (limnetics) showed a preference for smaller females, in contrast to the inferred ancestral preference for larger females, suggesting reproductive character displacement of limnetic male mate preferences as well. © 1998 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Does movement behaviour predict population densities? A test with 25 butterfly species.

PubMed

Schultz, Cheryl B; Pe'er, B Guy; Damiani, Christine; Brown, Leone; Crone, Elizabeth E

2017-03-01

Diffusion, which approximates a correlated random walk, has been used by ecologists to describe movement, and forms the basis for many theoretical models. However, it is often criticized as too simple a model to describe animal movement in real populations. We test a key prediction of diffusion models, namely, that animals should be more abundant in land cover classes through which they move more slowly. This relationship between density and diffusion has rarely been tested across multiple species within a given landscape. We estimated diffusion rates and corresponding densities of 25 Israeli butterfly species from flight path data and visual surveys. The data were collected across 19 sites in heterogeneous landscapes with four land cover classes: semi-natural habitat, olive groves, wheat fields and field margins. As expected from theory, species tended to have higher densities in land cover classes through which they moved more slowly and lower densities in land cover classes through which they moved more quickly. Two components of movement (move length and turning angle) were not associated with density, nor was expected net squared displacement. Move time, however, was associated with density, and animals spent more time per move step in areas with higher density. The broad association we document between movement behaviour and density suggests that diffusion is a good first approximation of movement in butterflies. Moreover, our analyses demonstrate that dispersal is not a species-invariant trait, but rather one that depends on landscape context. Thus, land cover classes with high diffusion rates are likely to have low densities and be effective conduits for movement. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Thermal preference predicts animal personality in Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus.

PubMed

Cerqueira, Marco; Rey, Sonia; Silva, Tome; Featherstone, Zoe; Crumlish, Margaret; MacKenzie, Simon

2016-09-01

Environmental temperature gradients provide habitat structure in which fish orientate and individual thermal choice may reflect an essential integrated response to the environment. The use of subtle thermal gradients likely impacts upon specific physiological and behavioural processes reflected as a suite of traits described by animal personality. In this study, we examine the relationship between thermal choice, animal personality and the impact of infection upon this interaction. We predicted that thermal choice in Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus reflects distinct personality traits and that under a challenge individuals exhibit differential thermal distribution. Nile tilapia were screened following two different protocols: 1) a suite of individual behavioural tests to screen for personality and 2) thermal choice in a custom-built tank with a thermal gradient (TCH tank) ranging from 21 to 33 °C. A first set of fish were screened for behaviour and then thermal preference, and a second set were tested in the opposite fashion: thermal then behaviour. The final thermal distribution of the fish after 48 h was assessed reflecting final thermal preferendum. Additionally, fish were then challenged using a bacterial Streptococcus iniae model infection to assess the behavioural fever response of proactive and reactive fish. Results showed that individuals with preference for higher temperatures were also classified as proactive with behavioural tests and reactive contemporaries chose significantly lower water temperatures. All groups exhibited behavioural fever recovering personality-specific thermal preferences after 5 days. Our results show that thermal preference can be used as a proxy to assess personality traits in Nile tilapia and it is a central factor to understand the adaptive meaning of animal personality within a population. Importantly, response to infection by expressing behavioural fever overrides personality-related thermal choice. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Socio-ecological predictors of participation and dropout in organised sports during childhood.

PubMed

Vella, Stewart A; Cliff, Dylan P; Okely, Anthony D

2014-05-13

The purpose of this study was to explore the socio-ecological determinants of participation and dropout in organised sports in a nationally-representative sample of Australian children. Data were drawn from Waves 3 and 4 of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. In total, 4042 children aged 8.25 (SD = 0.44) years at baseline were included, with 24-months between Waves. Socio-ecological predictors were reported by parents and teachers, while cognitive and health measures were assessed by trained professionals. All predictors were assessed at age 8, and used to predict participation and dropout by age 10. Seven variables at age 8 were shown to positively predict participation in organised sports at age 10. These included: sex (boy); fewer people in household; higher household income; main language spoken at home (English); higher parental education; child taken to a sporting event; and, access to a specialist PE teacher during primary school. Four variables predicted dropout from organised sports by age 10: lower household income; main language spoken at home (non-English); lower parental education; and, child not taken to a sporting event. The interplay between child sex, socioeconomic indicators, and parental support is important in predicting children's participation in organised sports. Multilevel and multicomponent interventions to promote participation and prevent dropout should be underpinned by the Socio-Ecological Model and targeted to high risk populations using multiple levels of risk.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System: Oxygen Prediction for the Sustainable Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathukumalli, B.; Long, W.; Zhang, X.; Wood, R.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) is a flexible, end-to-end expert prediction tool for decision makers that will provide customizable, user-specified predictions and projections of the region’s climate, air and water quality, local chemistry, and ecosystems at days to decades. As a part of CBFS, the long-term water quality data were collected and assembled to develop ecological models for the sustainable management of the Chesapeake Bay. Cultural eutrophication depletes oxygen levels in this ecosystem particularly in summer which has several negative implications on the structure and function of ecosystem. In order to understand dynamics and prediction of spatially-explicit oxygen levels in the Bay, an empirical process based ecological model is developed with long-term control variables (water temperature, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). Statistical validation methods were employed to demonstrate usability of predictions for management purposes and the predicted oxygen levels are quite faithful to observations. The predicted oxygen values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the bay (for example, bass fishing). Furthermore, this work can also be used to predict extent of hypoxia/anoxia not only from anthropogenic nutrient pollution, but also from global warming. Some hindcasts and forecasts are discussed along with the ongoing efforts at a mechanistic ecosystem model to provide prognostic oxygen predictions and projections and upper trophic modeling using an energetics approach.

Predicting risk of entry into foster care from early childhood experiences: A survival analysis using LONGSCAN data.

PubMed

English, Diana J; Thompson, Richard; White, Catherine Roller

2015-07-01

This study examined whether a multi-domain model of maltreatment informed by an ecological framework-including factors related to the child, caregiver, family, neighborhood, and dimensions of maltreatment experience-predicted entry into foster care between the ages of 4 and 18 among children with no prior foster care experience. To determine which factors predict entry into foster care, secondary data analyses were conducted utilizing a sub-sample from LONGSCAN (Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect) of 942 children and their primary caregivers. Results demonstrate that there are important predictors for entry into out-of-home placement across multiple ecological domains. Characteristics related to child, caregiver, and family characteristics, and neighborhood context, as well as dimensions of maltreatment (particularly emotional maltreatment), predicted risk of placement in out-of-home care. Implications for child welfare practice are discussed. This examination of the effects of multiple ecological domains adds to our understanding of children's risk of removal and entry into out-of-home placement. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparisons of patch-use models for wintering American tree sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tome, M.W.

1990-01-01

Optimal foraging theory has stimulated numerous theoretical and empirical studies of foraging behavior for >20 years. These models provide a valuable tool for studying the foraging behavior of an organism. As with any other tool, the models are most effective when properly used. For example, to obtain a robust test of a foraging model, Stephens and Krebs (1986) recommend experimental designs in which four questions are answered in the affirmative. First, do the foragers play the same "game" as the model? Sec- ond, are the assumptions of the model met? Third, does the test rule out alternative possibilities? Finally, are the appropriate variables measured? Negative an- swers to any of these questions could invalidate the model and lead to confusion over the usefulness of foraging theory in conducting ecological studies. Gaines (1989) attempted to determine whether American Tree Sparrows (Spizella arborea) foraged by a time (Krebs 1973) or number expectation rule (Gibb 1962), or in a manner consistent with the predictions of Charnov's (1976) marginal value theorem (MVT). Gaines (1989: 118) noted appropriately that field tests of foraging models frequently involve uncontrollable circumstances; thus, it is often difficult to meet the assumptions of the models. Gaines also states (1989: 118) that "violations of the assumptions are also in- formative but do not constitute robust tests of predicted hypotheses," and that "the problem can be avoided by experimental analyses which concurrently test mutually exclusive hypotheses so that alter- native predictions will be eliminated if falsified." There is a problem with this approach because, when major assumptions of models are not satisfied, it is not justifiable to compare a predator's foraging behavior with the model's predictions. I submit that failing to follow the advice offered by Stephens and Krebs (1986) can invalidate tests of foraging models.

Ecological homogenization of residential macrosystems

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Meghan Avolio; Jeannine Cavender-Bares; Neil D. Bettez; J. Morgan Grove; Sharon J. Hall; Sarah E. Hobbie; Kelli L. Larson; Susannah B. Lerman; Dexter H. Locke; James B. Heffernan; Jennifer L. Morse; Christopher Neill; Kristen C. Nelson; Jarlath O' Neil-Dunne; Diane E. Pataki; Colin Polsky; Rinku Roy Chowdhury; Tara L. E. Trammell

2017-01-01

Similarities in planning, development and culture within urban areas may lead to the convergence of ecological processes on continental scales. Transdisciplinary, multi-scale research is now needed to understand and predict the impact of human-dominated landscapes on ecosystem structure and function.

LANDSCAPE METRICS THAT ARE USEFUL FOR EXPLAINING ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES

EPA Science Inventory

We investigated whether land use/cover characteristics of watersheds associated with estuaries exhibit a strong enough signal to make landscape metrics useful for predicting estuarine ecological condition. We used multivariate logistic regression models to discriminate between su...

Management applications of discontinuity theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Barichievy, Chris; Eason, Tarsha; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance H.; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Nelson, R. John; Nystrom, Magnus; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

2015-01-01

Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems.We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity.Synthesis and applications. We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

Integrating fuzzy logic, optimization, and GIS for ecological impact assessments.

PubMed

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

Integrating Fuzzy Logic, Optimization, and GIS for Ecological Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

Pupils' Interest before, during, and after a Curriculum Dealing with Ecological Topics and Its Relationship with Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randler, Christoph; Bogner, Franz X.

2007-01-01

We surveyed interest in ecology prior, during, and after an ecological unit of 14 lessons ("Ecosystem Lake"). Achievement was assessed in a pretest (T-1), a class test (T-2; used for grading), and a retention test (T-3). We found a main effect of stratification on the level of interest in ecology after the educational unit (pupils from…

Trait-based approaches in the analysis of stream fish communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frimpong, Emmanuel; Angermeier, Paul

2010-01-01

Species traits are used to study the functional organization of fish communities for a range of reasons, from simply reducing data dimensionality to providing mechanistic explanations for observed variation in communities. Ecological and life history traits have been used to understand the basic ecology of fishes and predict (1) species and community responses to habitat and climate alteration, and (2) species extinction, species invasion, and community homogenization. Many approaches in this arena have been developed during the past three decades, but they often have not been integrated with related ecological concepts or subdisciplines, which has led to confusion in terminology. We review 102 studies of species traits and then summarize patterns in traits being used and questions being addressed with trait-based approaches. Overall, studies of fish–habitat relationships that apply habitat templates and hierarchical filters dominate our sample; the most frequently used traits are related to feeding. We define and show the relationships among key terms such as fundamental and realized niches; functional traits, performance, and fitness; tactic, trait-state, syndromes, and strategies; and guilds and functional groups. We propose accelerating research to (1) quantify trait plasticity, (2) identify traits useful for testing ecological hypotheses, (3) model habitat and biotic interactions in communities while explicitly accounting for phylogenetic relationships, (4) explore how traits control community assembly, and (5) document the importance of traits in fish– community responses to anthropogenic change and in delivering ecosystem services. Further synthesis of these topics is still needed to develop concepts, models, and principles that can unify the disparate approaches taken in trait-based analysis of fish communities, link fish community ecology to general community ecology, and inform sustainable management of ecosystems.

Biodiversity in environmental assessment-current practice and tools for prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gontier, Mikael; Balfors, Berit; Moertberg, Ulla

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity. Environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment are essential instruments used in physical planning to address such problems. Yet there are no well-developed methods for quantifying and predicting impacts of fragmentation on biodiversity. In this study, a literature review was conducted on GIS-based ecological models that have potential as prediction tools for biodiversity assessment. Further, a review of environmental impact statements for road and railway projects from four European countries was performed, to study how impact prediction concerning biodiversity issues was addressed. The results of the study showed the existing gapmore » between research in GIS-based ecological modelling and current practice in biodiversity assessment within environmental assessment.« less

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Temperature-dependence of biomass accumulation rates during secondary succession.

PubMed

Anderson, Kristina J; Allen, Andrew P; Gillooly, James F; Brown, James H

2006-06-01

Rates of ecosystem recovery following disturbance affect many ecological processes, including carbon cycling in the biosphere. Here, we present a model that predicts the temperature dependence of the biomass accumulation rate following disturbances in forests. Model predictions are derived based on allometric and biochemical principles that govern plant energetics and are tested using a global database of 91 studies of secondary succession compiled from the literature. The rate of biomass accumulation during secondary succession increases with average growing season temperature as predicted based on the biochemical kinetics of photosynthesis in chloroplasts. In addition, the rate of biomass accumulation is greater in angiosperm-dominated communities than in gymnosperm-dominated ones and greater in plantations than in naturally regenerating stands. By linking the temperature-dependence of photosynthesis to the rate of whole-ecosystem biomass accumulation during secondary succession, our model and results provide one example of how emergent, ecosystem-level rate processes can be predicted based on the kinetics of individual metabolic rate.

PREDICTING ESTUARINE SEDIMENT METAL CONCENTRATIONS AND INFERRED ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS: AN INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

Empirically derived values associating sediment metal concentrations with degraded ecological conditions provide important information to assess estuarine condition. However, resources limit the number, magnitude, and frequency of monitoring programs to gather these data. As su...

INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

About the Atlantic Ecology Division (AED) of EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Atlantic Ecology Division (AED), conducts innovative research and predictive modeling to assess and forecast the risks of anthropogenic stressors to near coastal waters and their watersheds, to develop tools to support resilient watersheds.

The structure of parasite communities in fish hosts: ecology meets geography and climate.

PubMed

Poulin, R

2007-09-01

Parasite communities in fish hosts are not uniform in space: their diversity, composition and abundance vary across the geographical range of a host species. Increasingly urgently, we need to understand the geographic component of parasite communities to better predict how they will respond to global climate change. Patterns of geographical variation in the abundance of parasite populations, and in the diversity and composition of parasite communities, are explored here, and the ways in which they may be affected by climate change are discussed. The time has come to transform fish parasite ecology from a mostly descriptive discipline into a predictive science, capable of integrating complex ecological data to generate forecasts about the future state of host-parasite systems.

Hostile attributional bias and aggressive behavior in global context.

PubMed

Dodge, Kenneth A; Malone, Patrick S; Lansford, Jennifer E; Sorbring, Emma; Skinner, Ann T; Tapanya, Sombat; Tirado, Liliana Maria Uribe; Zelli, Arnaldo; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Bacchini, Dario; Bombi, Anna Silvia; Bornstein, Marc H; Chang, Lei; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Di Giunta, Laura; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta

2015-07-28

We tested a model that children's tendency to attribute hostile intent to others in response to provocation is a key psychological process that statistically accounts for individual differences in reactive aggressive behavior and that this mechanism contributes to global group differences in children's chronic aggressive behavior problems. Participants were 1,299 children (mean age at year 1 = 8.3 y; 51% girls) from 12 diverse ecological-context groups in nine countries worldwide, followed across 4 y. In year 3, each child was presented with each of 10 hypothetical vignettes depicting an ambiguous provocation toward the child and was asked to attribute the likely intent of the provocateur (coded as benign or hostile) and to predict his or her own behavioral response (coded as nonaggression or reactive aggression). Mothers and children independently rated the child's chronic aggressive behavior problems in years 2, 3, and 4. In every ecological group, in those situations in which a child attributed hostile intent to a peer, that child was more likely to report that he or she would respond with reactive aggression than in situations when that same child attributed benign intent. Across children, hostile attributional bias scores predicted higher mother- and child-rated chronic aggressive behavior problems, even controlling for prior aggression. Ecological group differences in the tendency for children to attribute hostile intent statistically accounted for a significant portion of group differences in chronic aggressive behavior problems. The findings suggest a psychological mechanism for group differences in aggressive behavior and point to potential interventions to reduce aggressive behavior.

Individual and joint toxicity of the herbicide S-metolachlor and a metabolite, deethylatrazine on aquatic crustaceans: Difference between ecological groups.

PubMed

Maazouzi, C; Coureau, C; Piscart, C; Saplairoles, M; Baran, N; Marmonier, P

2016-12-01

We studied the individual and joint acute toxicity of S-metolachlor (SMOC) and deethylatrazine (DEA - a metabolite of atrazine) on different non-target freshwater crustaceans. We used animals from different ecological groups: two amphipods from surface running water (Gammarus pulex and Gammarus cf. orinos), an isopod from surface stagnant water (Asellus aquaticus) and an amphipod living in groundwater (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis). Organisms were exposed to different levels of SMOC and DEA, alone or in binary mixture. Temperature effect on SMOC toxicity was assessed by exposing G. pulex and N. rhenorhodanensis to SMOC at 11 °C and 15 °C. Studying mortality as the biological endpoint, N. rhenorhodanensis was more resistant than surface water species towards SMOC and DEA. Among surface water species, G. pulex was the most sensitive while Gammarus cf. orinos and A. aquaticus showed similar responses to both compounds. Temperature increase did not change SMOC toxicity but modify the shape and steepness of the dose-response curve. We used a Model Deviation Ratio (MDR) approach to evaluate the predictability of Concentration Addition (CA) and Independent Action (IA) models to mixture toxicity. Results indicated either an additive or an antagonistic or a synergistic interaction depending on the concentrations combination and the test species. Our finding conclusively show the suitability of CA and IA in predicting mixture toxicities but results should be interpreted with caution according to ecological group of exposed species in risk assessment procedures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hostile attributional bias and aggressive behavior in global context

PubMed Central

Dodge, Kenneth A.; Malone, Patrick S.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Sorbring, Emma; Skinner, Ann T.; Tapanya, Sombat; Tirado, Liliana Maria Uribe; Zelli, Arnaldo; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M.; Bacchini, Dario; Bombi, Anna Silvia; Bornstein, Marc H.; Chang, Lei; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Di Giunta, Laura; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta

2015-01-01

We tested a model that children’s tendency to attribute hostile intent to others in response to provocation is a key psychological process that statistically accounts for individual differences in reactive aggressive behavior and that this mechanism contributes to global group differences in children’s chronic aggressive behavior problems. Participants were 1,299 children (mean age at year 1 = 8.3 y; 51% girls) from 12 diverse ecological-context groups in nine countries worldwide, followed across 4 y. In year 3, each child was presented with each of 10 hypothetical vignettes depicting an ambiguous provocation toward the child and was asked to attribute the likely intent of the provocateur (coded as benign or hostile) and to predict his or her own behavioral response (coded as nonaggression or reactive aggression). Mothers and children independently rated the child’s chronic aggressive behavior problems in years 2, 3, and 4. In every ecological group, in those situations in which a child attributed hostile intent to a peer, that child was more likely to report that he or she would respond with reactive aggression than in situations when that same child attributed benign intent. Across children, hostile attributional bias scores predicted higher mother- and child-rated chronic aggressive behavior problems, even controlling for prior aggression. Ecological group differences in the tendency for children to attribute hostile intent statistically accounted for a significant portion of group differences in chronic aggressive behavior problems. The findings suggest a psychological mechanism for group differences in aggressive behavior and point to potential interventions to reduce aggressive behavior. PMID:26170281

Ecological knowledge, leadership, and the evolution of menopause in killer whales.

PubMed

Brent, Lauren J N; Franks, Daniel W; Foster, Emma A; Balcomb, Kenneth C; Cant, Michael A; Croft, Darren P

2015-03-16

Classic life-history theory predicts that menopause should not occur because there should be no selection for survival after the cessation of reproduction [1]. Yet, human females routinely live 30 years after they have stopped reproducing [2]. Only two other species-killer whales (Orcinus orca) and short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) [3, 4]-have comparable postreproductive lifespans. In theory, menopause can evolve via inclusive fitness benefits [5, 6], but the mechanisms by which postreproductive females help their kin remain enigmatic. One hypothesis is that postreproductive females act as repositories of ecological knowledge and thereby buffer kin against environmental hardships [7, 8]. We provide the first test of this hypothesis using a unique long-term dataset on wild resident killer whales. We show three key results. First, postreproductively aged females lead groups during collective movement in salmon foraging grounds. Second, leadership by postreproductively aged females is especially prominent in difficult years when salmon abundance is low. This finding is critical because salmon abundance drives both mortality and reproductive success in resident killer whales [9, 10]. Third, females are more likely to lead their sons than they are to lead their daughters, supporting predictions of recent models [5] of the evolution of menopause based on kinship dynamics. Our results show that postreproductive females may boost the fitness of kin through the transfer of ecological knowledge. The value gained from the wisdom of elders can help explain why female resident killer whales and humans continue to live long after they have stopped reproducing. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Where and When do Species Interactions Set Range Limits?

PubMed

Louthan, Allison M; Doak, Daniel F; Angert, Amy L

2015-12-01

A long-standing theory, originating with Darwin, suggests that abiotic forces set species range limits at high latitude, high elevation, and other abiotically 'stressful' areas, while species interactions set range limits in apparently more benign regions. This theory is of considerable importance for both basic and applied ecology, and while it is often assumed to be a ubiquitous pattern, it has not been clearly defined or broadly tested. We review tests of this idea and dissect how the strength of species interactions must vary across stress gradients to generate the predicted pattern. We conclude by suggesting approaches to better test this theory, which will deepen our understanding of the forces that determine species ranges and govern responses to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecology of the Nevada Test Site. I. Geographic and ecologic distributions of the vascular flora (annotated checklist)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beatley, J C

1965-04-01

A checklist of vascular plants of the Nevada Test Site is presented for use in studies of plant ecology. Data on the occurrence and distribution of plant species are included. Collections were made from both undisturbed and disturbed sites.

Ecological and personal predictors of science achievement in an urban center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidubaldi, John Michael

This study sought to examine selected personal and environmental factors that predict urban students' achievement test scores on the science subject area of the Ohio standardized test. Variables examined were in the general categories of teacher/classroom, student, and parent/home. It assumed that these clusters might add independent variance to a best predictor model, and that discovering relative strength of different predictors might lead to better selection of intervention strategies to improve student performance. This study was conducted in an urban school district and was comprised of teachers and students enrolled in ninth grade science in three of this district's high schools. Consenting teachers (9), students (196), and parents (196) received written surveys with questions designed to examine the predictive power of each variable cluster. Regression analyses were used to determine which factors best correlate with student scores and classroom science grades. Selected factors were then compiled into a best predictive model, predicting success on standardized science tests. Students t tests of gender and racial subgroups confirmed that there were racial differences in OPT scores, and both gender and racial differences in science grades. Additional examinations were therefore conducted for all 12 variables to determine whether gender and race had an impact on the strength of individual variable predictions and on the final best predictor model. Of the 15 original OPT and cluster variable hypotheses, eight showed significant positive relationships that occurred in the expected direction. However, when more broadly based end-of-the-year science class grade was used as a criterion, 13 of the 15 hypotheses showed significant relationships in the expected direction. With both criteria, significant gender and racial differences were observed in the strength of individual predictors and in the composition of best predictor models.

A signature of tree health? Shifts in the microbiome and the ecological drivers of horse chestnut bleeding canker disease.

PubMed

Koskella, Britt; Meaden, Sean; Crowther, William J; Leimu, Roosa; Metcalf, C Jessica E

2017-07-01

Host susceptibility to pathogens can be shaped by genetic, ecological, and evolutionary factors. The ability to predict the spread of disease therefore requires an integrated understanding of these factors, including effects of pests on pathogen growth and competition between pathogens and commensal microbiota for host resources. We examined interactions between the leaf-mining moth Cameraria ohridella, the bacterial causal agent of bleeding canker disease Pseudomonas syringae pv aesculi, and the bark-associated microbiota of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) trees. Through surveys of > 900 trees from 60 sites in the UK, we tested for ecological or life history predictors of leaf miner infestation, bleeding canker, or coinfection. Using culture-independent sequencing, we then compared the bark microbiomes from 46 trees to measure the association between microbiome composition and key ecological variables, including the severity of disease. Both pest and pathogen were found to respond to tree characteristics, but neither explained damage inflicted by the other. However, we found a clear loss of microbial diversity and associated shift in microbiome composition of trees as a function of disease. These results show a link between bark-associated microbiota and tree health that introduces the intriguing possibility that tree microbiota play key roles in the spread of disease. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting the distribution and ecological niche of unexploited snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) populations in Alaskan waters: a first open-access ensemble model.

PubMed

Hardy, Sarah M; Lindgren, Michael; Konakanchi, Hanumantharao; Huettmann, Falk

2011-10-01

Populations of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) are widely distributed on high-latitude continental shelves of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and represent a valuable resource in both the United States and Canada. In US waters, snow crabs are found throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas surrounding Alaska, north of the Aleutian Islands, yet commercial harvest currently focuses on the more southerly population in the Bering Sea. Population dynamics are well-monitored in exploited areas, but few data exist for populations further north where climate trends in the Arctic appear to be affecting species' distributions and community structure on multiple trophic levels. Moreover, increased shipping traffic, as well as fisheries and petroleum resource development, may add additional pressures in northern portions of the range as seasonal ice cover continues to decline. In the face of these pressures, we examined the ecological niche and population distribution of snow crabs in Alaskan waters using a GIS-based spatial modeling approach. We present the first quantitative open-access model predictions of snow-crab distribution, abundance, and biomass in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Multi-variate analysis of environmental drivers of species' distribution and community structure commonly rely on multiple linear regression methods. The spatial modeling approach employed here improves upon linear regression methods in allowing for exploration of nonlinear relationships and interactions between variables. Three machine-learning algorithms were used to evaluate relationships between snow-crab distribution and environmental parameters, including TreeNet, Random Forests, and MARS. An ensemble model was then generated by combining output from these three models to generate consensus predictions for presence-absence, abundance, and biomass of snow crabs. Each algorithm identified a suite of variables most important in predicting snow-crab distribution, including nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations in overlying waters, temperature, salinity, and annual sea-ice cover; this information may be used to develop and test hypotheses regarding the ecology of this species. This is the first such quantitative model for snow crabs, and all GIS-data layers compiled for this project are freely available from the authors, upon request, for public use and improvement.

Rate of egg maturation in marine turtles exhibits 'universal temperature dependence'.

PubMed

Weber, Sam B; Blount, Jonathan D; Godley, Brendan J; Witt, Matthew J; Broderick, Annette C

2011-09-01

1. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) predicts that, after correcting for body mass variation among organisms, the rates of most biological processes will vary as a universal function of temperature. However, empirical support for 'universal temperature dependence' (UTD) is currently equivocal and based on studies of a limited number of traits. 2. In many ectothermic animals, the rate at which females produce mature eggs is temperature dependent and may be an important factor in determining the costs of reproduction. 3. We tested whether the rate of egg maturation in marine turtles varies with environmental temperature as predicted by MTE, using the time separating successive clutches of individual females to estimate the rate at which eggs are formed. We also assessed the phenotypic contribution to this rate, by using radio telemetry to make repeated measurements of interclutch intervals for individual green turtles (Chelonia mydas). 4. Rates of egg maturation increased with seasonally increasing water temperatures in radio-tracked green turtles, but were not repeatable for individual females, and did not vary according to maternal body size or reproductive investment (number and size of eggs produced). 5. Using a collated data set from several different populations and species of marine turtles, we then show that a single relationship with water temperature explains most of the variation in egg maturation rates, with a slope that is statistically indistinguishable from the UTD predicted by MTE. However, several alternative statistical models also described the relationship between temperature and egg maturation rates equally parsimoniously. 6. Our results offer novel support for the MTE's predicted UTD of biological rates, although the underlying mechanisms require further study. The strong temperature dependence of egg maturation combined with the apparently weak phenotypic contribution to this rate has interesting behavioural implications in ectothermic animals. We suggest that maternal thermoregulatory behaviour in marine turtles, and many other reptiles, is consistent with a strategy of adaptively increasing body temperatures to accelerate egg maturation. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

How does cognition evolve? Phylogenetic comparative psychology

PubMed Central

Matthews, Luke J.; Hare, Brian A.; Nunn, Charles L.; Anderson, Rindy C.; Aureli, Filippo; Brannon, Elizabeth M.; Call, Josep; Drea, Christine M.; Emery, Nathan J.; Haun, Daniel B. M.; Herrmann, Esther; Jacobs, Lucia F.; Platt, Michael L.; Rosati, Alexandra G.; Sandel, Aaron A.; Schroepfer, Kara K.; Seed, Amanda M.; Tan, Jingzhi; van Schaik, Carel P.; Wobber, Victoria

2014-01-01

Now more than ever animal studies have the potential to test hypotheses regarding how cognition evolves. Comparative psychologists have developed new techniques to probe the cognitive mechanisms underlying animal behavior, and they have become increasingly skillful at adapting methodologies to test multiple species. Meanwhile, evolutionary biologists have generated quantitative approaches to investigate the phylogenetic distribution and function of phenotypic traits, including cognition. In particular, phylogenetic methods can quantitatively (1) test whether specific cognitive abilities are correlated with life history (e.g., lifespan), morphology (e.g., brain size), or socio-ecological variables (e.g., social system), (2) measure how strongly phylogenetic relatedness predicts the distribution of cognitive skills across species, and (3) estimate the ancestral state of a given cognitive trait using measures of cognitive performance from extant species. Phylogenetic methods can also be used to guide the selection of species comparisons that offer the strongest tests of a priori predictions of cognitive evolutionary hypotheses (i.e., phylogenetic targeting). Here, we explain how an integration of comparative psychology and evolutionary biology will answer a host of questions regarding the phylogenetic distribution and history of cognitive traits, as well as the evolutionary processes that drove their evolution. PMID:21927850

How does cognition evolve? Phylogenetic comparative psychology.

PubMed

MacLean, Evan L; Matthews, Luke J; Hare, Brian A; Nunn, Charles L; Anderson, Rindy C; Aureli, Filippo; Brannon, Elizabeth M; Call, Josep; Drea, Christine M; Emery, Nathan J; Haun, Daniel B M; Herrmann, Esther; Jacobs, Lucia F; Platt, Michael L; Rosati, Alexandra G; Sandel, Aaron A; Schroepfer, Kara K; Seed, Amanda M; Tan, Jingzhi; van Schaik, Carel P; Wobber, Victoria

2012-03-01

Now more than ever animal studies have the potential to test hypotheses regarding how cognition evolves. Comparative psychologists have developed new techniques to probe the cognitive mechanisms underlying animal behavior, and they have become increasingly skillful at adapting methodologies to test multiple species. Meanwhile, evolutionary biologists have generated quantitative approaches to investigate the phylogenetic distribution and function of phenotypic traits, including cognition. In particular, phylogenetic methods can quantitatively (1) test whether specific cognitive abilities are correlated with life history (e.g., lifespan), morphology (e.g., brain size), or socio-ecological variables (e.g., social system), (2) measure how strongly phylogenetic relatedness predicts the distribution of cognitive skills across species, and (3) estimate the ancestral state of a given cognitive trait using measures of cognitive performance from extant species. Phylogenetic methods can also be used to guide the selection of species comparisons that offer the strongest tests of a priori predictions of cognitive evolutionary hypotheses (i.e., phylogenetic targeting). Here, we explain how an integration of comparative psychology and evolutionary biology will answer a host of questions regarding the phylogenetic distribution and history of cognitive traits, as well as the evolutionary processes that drove their evolution.

Review of Nearshore Morphologic Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Dalyander, S.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The evolution of the world's erodible coastlines will determine the balance between the benefits and costs associated with human and ecological utilization of shores, beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and estuaries. So, we would like to predict coastal evolution to guide management and planning of human and ecological response to coastal changes. After decades of research investment in data collection, theoretical and statistical analysis, and model development we have a number of empirical, statistical, and deterministic models that can predict the evolution of the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and wetlands over time scales of hours to decades, and even predict the evolution of geologic strata over the course of millennia. Comparisons of predictions to data have demonstrated that these models can have meaningful predictive skill. But these comparisons also highlight the deficiencies in fundamental understanding, formulations, or data that are responsible for prediction errors and uncertainty. Here, we review a subset of predictive models of the nearshore to illustrate tradeoffs in complexity, predictive skill, and sensitivity to input data and parameterization errors. We identify where future improvement in prediction skill will result from improved theoretical understanding, and data collection, and model-data assimilation.

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography.

PubMed

Johnson, K P; Adler, F R; Cherry, J L

2000-04-01

Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.

Lemur habitat and dental senescence in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.

PubMed

King, Stephen J; Boyer, Doug M; Tecot, Stacey; Strait, Suzanne G; Zohdy, Sarah; Blanco, Marina B; Wright, Patricia C; Jernvall, Jukka

2012-06-01

Not only can teeth provide clues about diet, but they also can be indicators of habitat quality. Conspecific groups living in different habitats with different kinds of foods may exhibit different rates of dental attrition because their teeth are less well adapted to some foods than to others. Ecological disequilibrium describes the situation in which animals live in habitats to which they are relatively poorly adapted. We test whether dental senescence, the wear-related decrease in dental functionality that is associated with decreased survival of infants born to older Propithecus edwardsi females, can be explained by ecological disequilibrium. Specifically, we compare the rates of dental wear in sifaka groups living in nearby habitats that differ in the degree of anthropogenically induced disturbance. We hypothesize that sifakas living in disturbed areas have an unusual rate of tooth wear compared to those living in a more pristine area, and that dental senescence is a consequence of an atypically high wear rate in a degraded habitat. To test whether habitat quality affects tooth wear more generally, we compare rates of use-wear in two subsets of Microcebus rufus living in either relatively undisturbed or disturbed habitats. Contrary to our predictions, we did not detect different rates of tooth wear in disturbed versus undisturbed habitats for either species and consider that reproductively detrimental dental senescence in P. edwardsi females is unlikely to be a pathological consequence of ecological disequilibrium. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing ecological risks to the fish community from residual coal fly ash in Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee

DOE PAGES

Rigg, David K.; Wacksman, Mitch N.; Iannuzzi, Jacqueline; ...

2014-12-18

For this research, extensive site-specific biological and environmental data were collected to support an evaluation of risks to the fish community in Watts Bar Reservoir from residual ash from the December 2008 Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston ash release. This paper describes the approach used and results of the risk assessment for the fish community, which consists of multiple measurement endpoints (measures of exposure and effects) for fish. The lines of evidence included 1) comparing postspill annual fish community assessments with nearby prespill data and data from other TVA reservoirs, 2) evaluating possible effects of exposures of fish eggs andmore » larval fish to ash in controlled laboratory toxicity tests, 3) evaluating reproductive competence of field-exposed fish, 4) assessing individual fish health through physical examination, histopathology, and blood chemistry, 5) comparing fish tissue concentrations with literature-based critical body residues, and 6) comparing concentrations of ash-related contaminants in surface waters with US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Ambient Water Quality Standards for Fish and Aquatic Life. These measurement endpoints were treated as independent lines of evidence that were integrated into an overall weight-of-evidence estimate of risk to the fish community. Collectively, the data and analysis presented here indicate that ash and ash-related constituents pose negligible risks to the fish communities in Watts Bar Reservoir. This conclusion contradicts the predictions by some researchers immediately following the ash release of devastating effects on the aquatic ecology of Watts Bar Reservoir. The information presented in this article reaffirms the wisdom of carefully evaluating the evidence before predicting probable ecological effects of a major event such as the TVA Kingston ash release. Lastly, this study demonstrates that a thorough and detailed investigation using multiple measurement endpoints is needed to properly evaluate ecological effects.« less

Assessing ecological risks to the fish community from residual coal fly ash in Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rigg, David K.; Wacksman, Mitch N.; Iannuzzi, Jacqueline

For this research, extensive site-specific biological and environmental data were collected to support an evaluation of risks to the fish community in Watts Bar Reservoir from residual ash from the December 2008 Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston ash release. This paper describes the approach used and results of the risk assessment for the fish community, which consists of multiple measurement endpoints (measures of exposure and effects) for fish. The lines of evidence included 1) comparing postspill annual fish community assessments with nearby prespill data and data from other TVA reservoirs, 2) evaluating possible effects of exposures of fish eggs andmore » larval fish to ash in controlled laboratory toxicity tests, 3) evaluating reproductive competence of field-exposed fish, 4) assessing individual fish health through physical examination, histopathology, and blood chemistry, 5) comparing fish tissue concentrations with literature-based critical body residues, and 6) comparing concentrations of ash-related contaminants in surface waters with US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Ambient Water Quality Standards for Fish and Aquatic Life. These measurement endpoints were treated as independent lines of evidence that were integrated into an overall weight-of-evidence estimate of risk to the fish community. Collectively, the data and analysis presented here indicate that ash and ash-related constituents pose negligible risks to the fish communities in Watts Bar Reservoir. This conclusion contradicts the predictions by some researchers immediately following the ash release of devastating effects on the aquatic ecology of Watts Bar Reservoir. The information presented in this article reaffirms the wisdom of carefully evaluating the evidence before predicting probable ecological effects of a major event such as the TVA Kingston ash release. Lastly, this study demonstrates that a thorough and detailed investigation using multiple measurement endpoints is needed to properly evaluate ecological effects.« less

Ecological periodic tables: in principle and practice (in OIKOS)

EPA Science Inventory

“Science is organized knowledge.” Immanuel Kant (1724–1804) Ecological periodic tables are an information organizing system with categorical habitat types as elements and predictably recurring (periodic) properties of a target biotic community, such as its relative species rich...

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

What Should We Monitor? Indicators of Human Disturbance and Ecological Impact

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological indicators are physical, chemical, and biological measures of environmental condition that change predictably with levels of human disturbance. Historically, indicators have been used to monitor and assess the status and trends of coastal waters and to diagnose the ma...

Ecological Forecasting: Microbial Contamination and Atmospheric Loadings of Nutrients to Land and Water

EPA Science Inventory

The development of ecological forecasts, namely, methodologies to predict the chemical, biological, and physical changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is desirable so that effective strategies for reducing the adverse impacts of human activities and extreme natural events...

Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

2008-01-01

Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

PubMed

Cressler, Clayton E; Bengtson, Stefan; Nelson, William A

2017-07-01

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Predicting Where a Radiation Will Occur: Acoustic and Molecular Surveys Reveal Overlooked Diversity in Indian Ocean Island Crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius).

PubMed

Warren, Ben H; Baudin, Rémy; Franck, Antoine; Hugel, Sylvain; Strasberg, Dominique

2016-01-01

Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis) can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species). A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between islands.

Predicting Where a Radiation Will Occur: Acoustic and Molecular Surveys Reveal Overlooked Diversity in Indian Ocean Island Crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius)

PubMed Central

Warren, Ben H.; Baudin, Rémy; Franck, Antoine; Hugel, Sylvain; Strasberg, Dominique

2016-01-01

Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis) can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species). A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between islands. PMID:26871932

WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

2013-12-01

Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before, during and after a wildfire. Scalability of the WIFIRE approach allows many sensors to be subjected to user-specified data processing algorithms to generate threshold alerts within seconds. Integration of this sensor data into both rapidly available fire image data and models will better enable situational awareness, responses and decision support at local, state, national, and international levels. The products of WIFIRE will be initially disseminated to our collaborators (SDG&E, CAL FIRE, USFS), covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating values to emergency officials, and consequently to the general public. WIFIRE may be used by government agencies in the future to save lives and property during wildfire events, test the effectiveness of response and evacuation scenarios before they occur and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE's high-density network, therefore, will serve as a testbed for future applications worldwide.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

PubMed

Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

2017-01-01

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Individual to Community-Level Faunal Responses to Environmental Change from a Marine Fossil Record of Early Miocene Global Warming

PubMed Central

Belanger, Christina L.

2012-01-01

Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (∼20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1–4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability. PMID:22558424

Ecology shapes the evolutionary trade-off between predator avoidance and defence in coral reef butterflyfishes.

PubMed

Hodge, Jennifer R; Alim, Chidera; Bertrand, Nick G; Lee, Wesley; Price, Samantha A; Tran, Binh; Wainwright, Peter C

2018-07-01

Antipredator defensive traits are thought to trade-off evolutionarily with traits that facilitate predator avoidance. However, complexity and scale have precluded tests of this prediction in many groups, including fishes. Using a macroevolutionary approach, we test this prediction in butterflyfishes, an iconic group of coral reef inhabitants with diverse social behaviours, foraging strategies and antipredator adaptations. We find that several antipredator traits have evolved adaptively, dependent primarily on foraging strategy. We identify a previously unrecognised axis of diversity in butterflyfishes where species with robust morphological defences have riskier foraging strategies and lack sociality, while species with reduced morphological defences feed in familiar territories, have adaptations for quick escapes and benefit from the vigilance provided by sociality. Furthermore, we find evidence for the constrained evolution of fin spines among species that graze solely on corals, highlighting the importance of corals, as both prey and structural refuge, in shaping fish morphology. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

[The present-day issues of ecology, and possible solutions].

PubMed

Galichiĭ, V A; Stepanova, S I

2005-01-01

Ecology is considered an interdisciplinary bank of knowledge about the relations of humans with nature and anthropogenic environment. The central issue of ecology is prevention of the global catastrophe in consequence of anthropogenic factors. The dire threat of the ecological catastrophe comes from breaching the principle of co-evolution of mankind and nature due to the unilateral prevalence of human interests during formation of the civilization. Issues revealed by the analysis of the present-day knowledge of ecology can be resolved by creating an ecology-oriented ethic system (moral imperative or ecology-focused morals) an ecological imperative (internationally endorsed bans), and taking actions toward the recovery of ruined and preservation of survived eco-systems. Of special concern is analysis of the doctrine of noosphere developed by V.I. Vernadsky. The authors also dwell upon eco-monitoring and prediction with account of the rhythm of animate nature and abiocoen.

Statistical ecology comes of age.

PubMed

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-12-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Statistical ecology comes of age

PubMed Central

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-01-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, B. L.; Chang, J.; Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; DAntoni, Hector (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

High concentrations of protein test substances may have non-toxic effects on Daphnia magna: implications for regulatory study designs and ecological risk assessments for GM crops.

PubMed

Raybould, Alan; Burns, Andrea; Hamer, Mick

2014-01-01

Laboratory testing for possible adverse effects of insecticidal proteins on non-target organisms (NTOs) is an important part of many ecological risk assessments for regulatory decision-making about the cultivation of insect-resistant genetically modified (IRGM) crops. To increase confidence in the risk assessments, regulatory guidelines for effects testing specify that representative surrogate species for NTOs are exposed to concentrations of insecticidal proteins that are in excess of worst-case predicted exposures in the field. High concentrations in effects tests are achieved by using protein test substances produced in microbes, such as Escherichia coli. In a study that exposed Daphnia magna to a single high concentration of a microbial test substance containing Vip3Aa20, the insecticidal protein in MIR162 maize, small reductions in growth were observed. These effects were surprising as many other studies strongly suggest that the activity of Vip3Aa20 is limited to Lepidoptera. A plausible explanation for the effect on growth is that high concentrations of test substance have a non-toxic effect on Daphnia, perhaps by reducing its feeding rate. A follow-up study tested that hypothesis by exposing D. magna to several concentrations of Vip3Aa20, and a high concentration of a non-toxic protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA). Vip3Aa20 and BSA had sporadic effects on the reproduction and growth of D. magna. The pattern of the effects suggests that they result from non-toxic effects of high concentrations of protein, and not from toxicity. The implications of these results for regulatory NTO effects testing and ERA of IRGM crops are discussed.

Long-term species loss and homogenization of moth communities in Central Europe.

PubMed

Valtonen, Anu; Hirka, Anikó; Szőcs, Levente; Ayres, Matthew P; Roininen, Heikki; Csóka, György

2017-07-01

As global biodiversity continues to decline steeply, it is becoming increasingly important to understand diversity patterns at local and regional scales. Changes in land use and climate, nitrogen deposition and invasive species are the most important threats to global biodiversity. Because land use changes tend to benefit a few species but impede many, the expected outcome is generally decreasing population sizes, decreasing species richness at local and regional scales, and increasing similarity of species compositions across sites (biotic homogenization). Homogenization can be also driven by invasive species or effects of soil eutrophication propagating to higher trophic levels. In contrast, in the absence of increasing aridity, climate warming is predicted to generally increase abundances and species richness of poikilotherms at local and regional scales. We tested these predictions with data from one of the few existing monitoring programmes on biodiversity in the world dating to the 1960s, where the abundance of 878 species of macro-moths have been measured daily at seven sites across Hungary. Our analyses revealed a dramatic rate of regional species loss and homogenization of community compositions across sites. Species with restricted distribution range, specialized diet or dry grassland habitat were more likely than others to disappear from the community. In global context, the contrasting effects of climate change and land use changes could explain why the predicted enriching effects from climate warming are not always realized. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Experimental whole-stream warming alters community size structure.

PubMed

Nelson, Daniel; Benstead, Jonathan P; Huryn, Alexander D; Cross, Wyatt F; Hood, James M; Johnson, Philip W; Junker, James R; Gíslason, Gísli M; Ólafsson, Jón S

2017-07-01

How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large-scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here, we report results of a two-year whole-stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community-level metabolic theory. While warming by 3.8 °C decreased invertebrate abundance in the experimental stream by 60% relative to a reference stream, total invertebrate biomass was unchanged. Associated shifts in invertebrate assemblage structure were driven by the arrival of new taxa and a higher proportion of large, warm-adapted species (i.e., snails and predatory dipterans) relative to small-bodied, cold-adapted taxa (e.g., chironomids and oligochaetes). Experimental warming consequently shifted assemblage size spectra in ways that were unexpected, but consistent with thermal optima of taxa in the regional species pool. Higher temperatures increased community-level energy demand, which was presumably satisfied by higher primary production after warming. Our experiment demonstrates how warming reassembles communities within the constraints of energy supply via regional exchange of species that differ in thermal physiological traits. Similar responses will likely mediate impacts of anthropogenic warming on biodiversity and ecosystem function across all ecological communities. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predatory beetles facilitate plant growth by driving earthworms to lower soil layers.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuan; Griffin, John N; Wu, Xinwei; Sun, Shucun

2013-07-01

Theory suggests that predators of soil-improving, plant-facilitating detritivores (e.g. earthworms) should suppress plant growth via a negative tri-trophic cascade, but the empirical evidence is still largely lacking. We tested this prediction in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau by manipulating predatory beetles (presence/absence) and quantifying (i) direct effects on the density and behaviour of earthworms; and (ii) indirect effects on soil properties and above-ground plant biomass. In the absence of predators, earthworms improved soil properties, but did not significantly affect plant biomass. Surprisingly, the presence of predators strengthened the positive effect of earthworms on soil properties leading to the emergence of a positive indirect effect of predators on plant biomass. We attribute this counterintuitive result to: (i) the inability of predators to suppress overall earthworm density; and (ii) the predator-induced earthworm habitat shift from the upper to lower soil layer that enhanced their soil-modifying, plant-facilitating, effects. Our results reveal that plant-level consequences of predators as transmitted through detritivores can hinge on behaviour-mediated indirect interactions that have the potential to overturn predictions based solely on trophic interactions. This work calls for a closer examination of the effects of predators in detritus food webs and the development of spatially explicit theory capable of predicting the occurrence and consequences of predator-induced detritivore behavioural shifts. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Socio-ecological predictors of participation and dropout in organised sports during childhood

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to explore the socio-ecological determinants of participation and dropout in organised sports in a nationally-representative sample of Australian children. Methods Data were drawn from Waves 3 and 4 of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. In total, 4042 children aged 8.25 (SD = 0.44) years at baseline were included, with 24-months between Waves. Socio-ecological predictors were reported by parents and teachers, while cognitive and health measures were assessed by trained professionals. All predictors were assessed at age 8, and used to predict participation and dropout by age 10. Results Seven variables at age 8 were shown to positively predict participation in organised sports at age 10. These included: sex (boy); fewer people in household; higher household income; main language spoken at home (English); higher parental education; child taken to a sporting event; and, access to a specialist PE teacher during primary school. Four variables predicted dropout from organised sports by age 10: lower household income; main language spoken at home (non-English); lower parental education; and, child not taken to a sporting event. Conclusions The interplay between child sex, socioeconomic indicators, and parental support is important in predicting children’s participation in organised sports. Multilevel and multicomponent interventions to promote participation and prevent dropout should be underpinned by the Socio-Ecological Model and targeted to high risk populations using multiple levels of risk. PMID:24885978

Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

1994-12-31

The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Twomore » refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.« less

Extrapolating non-target risk of Bt crops from laboratory to field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The tiered approach to assessing the ecological risk of insect-resistant transgenic crops rests on the assumption that lower-tier laboratory studies, which expose surrogate non-target organisms to insecticidal proteins, accurately predict the ecological effects of these crops under field conditions....

HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS: RISK ASSESSMENT NEEDS

EPA Science Inventory

The symposium session, Indicators for Effects and Predictions of Harmful Algal Blooms, explored the current state of indicators used to assess the human health and ecological risks caused by harmful algal blooms, and highlighted future needs and impediments that must be overcome...

Impact of an Ecohydrology Classroom Activity on Middle School Students' Understanding of Evapotranspiration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villegas, Juan Camilo; Morrison, Clayton T.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Beal, Carole R.; Espeleta, Javier E.; Adamson, Matt

2010-01-01

Current trends in ecological research emphasize interdisciplinary approaches for assessing effects of present and predicted environmental changes. One such emerging interdisciplinary field is the discipline of ecohydrology, which studies the feedbacks and interactions between ecological and hydrological processes. However, interdisciplinary…

Filling gaps in large ecological databases: consequences for the study of global-scale plant functional trait patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrodt, Franziska; Shan, Hanhuai; Fazayeli, Farideh; Karpatne, Anuj; Kattge, Jens; Banerjee, Arindam; Reichstein, Markus; Reich, Peter

2013-04-01

With the advent of remotely sensed data and coordinated efforts to create global databases, the ecological community has progressively become more data-intensive. However, in contrast to other disciplines, statistical ways of handling these large data sets, especially the gaps which are inherent to them, are lacking. Widely used theoretical approaches, for example model averaging based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC), are sensitive to missing values. Yet, the most common way of handling sparse matrices - the deletion of cases with missing data (complete case analysis) - is known to severely reduce statistical power as well as inducing biased parameter estimates. In order to address these issues, we present novel approaches to gap filling in large ecological data sets using matrix factorization techniques. Factorization based matrix completion was developed in a recommender system context and has since been widely used to impute missing data in fields outside the ecological community. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of probabilistic matrix factorization techniques for imputing missing data in ecological matrices using two imputation techniques. Hierarchical Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (HPMF) effectively incorporates hierarchical phylogenetic information (phylogenetic group, family, genus, species and individual plant) into the trait imputation. Advanced Hierarchical Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (aHPMF) on the other hand includes climate and soil information into the matrix factorization by regressing the environmental variables against residuals of the HPMF. One unique opportunity opened up by aHPMF is out-of-sample prediction, where traits can be predicted for specific species at locations different to those sampled in the past. This has potentially far-reaching consequences for the study of global-scale plant functional trait patterns. We test the accuracy and effectiveness of HPMF and aHPMF in filling sparse matrices, using the TRY database of plant functional traits (http://www.try-db.org). TRY is one of the largest global compilations of plant trait databases (750 traits of 1 million plants), encompassing data on morphological, anatomical, biochemical, phenological and physiological features of plants. However, despite of unprecedented coverage, the TRY database is still very sparse, severely limiting joint trait analyses. Plant traits are the key to understanding how plants as primary producers adjust to changes in environmental conditions and in turn influence them. Forming the basis for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), plant traits are also fundamental in global change studies for predicting future ecosystem changes. It is thus imperative that missing data is imputed in as accurate and precise a way as possible. In this study, we show the advantages and disadvantages of applying probabilistic matrix factorization techniques in incorporating hierarchical and environmental information for the prediction of missing plant traits as compared to conventional imputation techniques such as the complete case and mean approaches. We will discuss the implications of using gap-filled data for global-scale studies of plant functional trait - environment relationship as opposed to the above-mentioned conventional techniques, using examples of out-of-sample predictions of foliar Nitrogen across several species' ranges and biomes.

Towards a catchment-scale macro-ecological model to support integrated catchment management in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner, R. N.; Lerner, D. N.; Surridge, B.; Paetzold, A.; Harris, B.; Anderson, C. W.

2005-12-01

In Europe, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) is providing a powerful regulatory driver to adopt integrated catchment management, and so pressurizing researchers to build suitable supporting tools. The WFD requires agencies to drive towards `good ecological quality' by 2015. After the initial step of characterising water bodies and the pressures on them, the next substantive step is the preparation of river basin management plans and proposed programmes of measures by 2009. Ecological quality is a complex concept and poorly defined, unless it is taken as a simple measure such as the abundance of a particular species of organism. There is clearly substantial work to do to build a practical but sound definition of ecological quality; practical in the sense of being easy to measure and explain to stakeholders, and sound in the sense that it reflects ecological complexity within catchments, the variability between catchments, and the conflicts demands for goods and services that human society places upon the ecological system. However ecological quality is defined, it will be driven by four interacting groups of factors. These represent the physical, chemical, ecological and socio-economic environments within and encompassing the catchment. Some of these groupings are better understood than others, for example hydrological processes and the transport of solutes are reasonably understood, even though they remain research areas in their own right. There are much larger gaps in our understanding at the interfaces, i.e. predicting how, for example, hydrological processes such as flow and river morphology influence ecological quality. Overall, it is clear we are not yet in a position to build deterministic models of the overall ecological behaviour of catchment. But we need predictive tools to support catchment management agencies in preparing robust plans. This poster describes our current exploration of soft modelling options to build a comprehensive macro-ecological model of UK catchments. This is taking place within the Catchment Science Centre, a joint venture between the University of Sheffield and the Environment Agency.

Reinterpreting maximum entropy in ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, James P; Rominger, Andrew; Xiao, Xiao

2017-07-01

Simplified mechanistic models in ecology have been criticised for the fact that a good fit to data does not imply the mechanism is true: pattern does not equal process. In parallel, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) has been applied in ecology to make predictions constrained by just a handful of state variables, like total abundance or species richness. But an outstanding question remains: what principle tells us which state variables to constrain? Here we attempt to solve both problems simultaneously, by translating a given set of mechanisms into the state variables to be used in MaxEnt, and then using this MaxEnt theory as a null model against which to compare mechanistic predictions. In particular, we identify the sufficient statistics needed to parametrise a given mechanistic model from data and use them as MaxEnt constraints. Our approach isolates exactly what mechanism is telling us over and above the state variables alone. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Paleoclimatic modeling and phylogeography of least killifish, Heterandria formosa: insights into Pleistocene expansion-contraction dynamics and evolutionary history of North American Coastal Plain freshwater biota.

PubMed

Bagley, Justin C; Sandel, Michael; Travis, Joseph; Lozano-Vilano, María de Lourdes; Johnson, Jerald B

2013-10-09

Climatic and sea-level fluctuations throughout the last Pleistocene glacial cycle (~130-0 ka) profoundly influenced present-day distributions and genetic diversity of Northern Hemisphere biotas by forcing range contractions in many species during the glacial advance and allowing expansion following glacial retreat ('expansion-contraction' model). Evidence for such range dynamics and refugia in the unglaciated Gulf-Atlantic Coastal Plain stems largely from terrestrial species, and aquatic species Pleistocene responses remain relatively uninvestigated. Heterandria formosa, a wide-ranging regional endemic, presents an ideal system to test the expansion-contraction model within this biota. By integrating ecological niche modeling and phylogeography, we infer the Pleistocene history of this livebearing fish (Poeciliidae) and test for several predicted distributional and genetic effects of the last glaciation. Paleoclimatic models predicted range contraction to a single southwest Florida peninsula refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by northward expansion. We inferred spatial-population subdivision into four groups that reflect genetic barriers outside this refuge. Several other features of the genetic data were consistent with predictions derived from an expansion-contraction model: limited intraspecific divergence (e.g. mean mtDNA p-distance = 0.66%); a pattern of mtDNA diversity (mean Hd = 0.934; mean π = 0.007) consistent with rapid, recent population expansion; a lack of mtDNA isolation-by-distance; and clinal variation in allozyme diversity with higher diversity at lower latitudes near the predicted refugium. Statistical tests of mismatch distributions and coalescent simulations of the gene tree lent greater support to a scenario of post-glacial expansion and diversification from a single refugium than to any other model examined (e.g. multiple-refugia scenarios). Congruent results from diverse data indicate H. formosa fits the classic Pleistocene expansion-contraction model, even as the genetic data suggest additional ecological influences on population structure. While evidence for Plio-Pleistocene Gulf Coast vicariance is well described for many freshwater species presently codistributed with H. formosa, this species demography and diversification departs notably from this pattern. Species-specific expansion-contraction dynamics may therefore have figured more prominently in shaping Coastal Plain evolutionary history than previously thought. Our findings bolster growing appreciation for the complexity of phylogeographical structuring within North America's southern refugia, including responses of Coastal Plain freshwater biota to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-06-01

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Digestive capacity predicts diet diversity in Neotropical frugivorous bats.

PubMed

Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Herrera-Alsina, Leonel; Schondube, Jorge E

2015-09-01

1. Predicting the diet diversity of animals is important to basic and applied ecology. Knowledge of diet diversity in animals helps us understand niche partitioning, functional diversity and ecosystem services such as pollination, pest control and seed dispersal. 2. There is a negative relationship between the length of the digestive tract and diet diversity in animals; however, the role of digestive physiology in determining diet diversity has been ignored. This is especially important in vertebrates with powered flight because, unlike non-flying vertebrates, they have limitations that may constrain gut size. 3. Here, we evaluate the relationship between digestive capacity and diet diversity in Carollinae and Stenodermatinae frugivorous bats. These bats disperse the seeds of plants that are key to Neotropical forest regeneration. 4. Our results show that digestive capacity is a good predictor of diet diversity in Carollinae and Stenodermatinae frugivorous bats (R(2) = 0·77). 5. Surprisingly, the most phylogenetically closely related species were not similar in their digestive capacity or diet diversity. The lack of a phylogenetic signal for the traits evaluated implies differences in digestive physiology and diet in closely related species. 6. Our results highlight the predictive usefulness of digestive physiology for understanding the feeding ecology of animals. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Predicting the process of extinction in experimental microcosms and accounting for interspecific interactions in single-species time series.

PubMed

Ferguson, Jake M; Ponciano, José M

2014-02-01

Predicting population extinction risk is a fundamental application of ecological theory to the practice of conservation biology. Here, we compared the prediction performance of a wide array of stochastic, population dynamics models against direct observations of the extinction process from an extensive experimental data set. By varying a series of biological and statistical assumptions in the proposed models, we were able to identify the assumptions that affected predictions about population extinction. We also show how certain autocorrelation structures can emerge due to interspecific interactions, and that accounting for the stochastic effect of these interactions can improve predictions of the extinction process. We conclude that it is possible to account for the stochastic effects of community interactions on extinction when using single-species time series. © 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.

2012-01-01

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Does size matter? An investigation of habitat use across a carnivore assemblage in the Serengeti, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Durant, Sarah M.; Craft, Meggan E.; Foley, Charles; Hampson, Katie; Lobora, Alex L.; Msuha, Maurus; Eblate, Ernest; Bukombe, John; Mchetto, John; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2012-01-01

Summary This study utilizes a unique data set covering over 19 000 georeferenced records of species presence collected between 1993 and 2008, to explore the distribution and habitat selectivity of an assemblage of 26 carnivore species in the Serengeti–Ngorongoro landscape in northern Tanzania. Two species, the large-spotted genet and the bushy-tailed mongoose, were documented for the first time within this landscape. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) was used to examine habitat selectivity for 18 of the 26 carnivore species for which there is sufficient data. Eleven ecogeographical variables (EGVs), such as altitude and habitat type, were used for these analyses. The ENFA demonstrated that species differed in their habitat selectivity, and supported the limited ecological information already available for these species, such as the golden jackals’ preference for grassland and the leopards’ preference for river valleys. Two aggregate scores, marginality and tolerance, are generated by the ENFA, and describe each species’ habitat selectivity in relation to the suite of EGVs. These scores were used to test the hypothesis that smaller species are expected to be more selective than larger species [Science, 1989, 243, 1145]. Two predictions were tested: Marginality should decrease with body mass; and tolerance should increase with body mass. Our study provided no evidence for either prediction. Our results not only support previous analyses of carnivore diet breadth, but also represent a novel approach to the investigation of habitat selection across species assemblages. Our method provides a powerful tool to explore similar questions in other systems and for other taxa. PMID:20646121

Community Regulation: The Relative Importance of Recruitment and Predation Intensity of an Intertidal Community Dominant in a Seascape Context

PubMed Central

Rilov, Gil; Schiel, David R.

2011-01-01

Predicting the strength and context-dependency of species interactions across multiple scales is a core area in ecology. This is especially challenging in the marine environment, where populations of most predators and prey are generally open, because of their pelagic larval phase, and recruitment of both is highly variable. In this study we use a comparative-experimental approach on small and large spatial scales to test the relationship between predation intensity and prey recruitment and their relative importance in shaping populations of a dominant rocky intertidal space occupier, mussels, in the context of seascape (availability of nearby subtidal reef habitat). Predation intensity on transplanted mussels was tested inside and outside cages and recruitment was measured with standard larval settlement collectors. We found that on intertidal rocky benches with contiguous subtidal reefs in New Zealand, mussel larval recruitment is usually low but predation on recruits by subtidal consumers (fish, crabs) is intense during high tide. On nearby intertidal rocky benches with adjacent sandy subtidal habitats, larval recruitment is usually greater but subtidal predators are typically rare and predation is weaker. Multiple regression analysis showed that predation intensity accounts for most of the variability in the abundance of adult mussels compared to recruitment. This seascape-dependent, predation-recruitment relationship could scale up to explain regional community variability. We argue that community ecology models should include seascape context-dependency and its effects on recruitment and species interactions for better predictions of coastal community dynamics and structure. PMID:21887351

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

PubMed Central

Petchey, Owen L; Pontarp, Mikael; Massie, Thomas M; Kéfi, Sonia; Ozgul, Arpat; Weilenmann, Maja; Palamara, Gian Marco; Altermatt, Florian; Matthews, Blake; Levine, Jonathan M; Childs, Dylan Z; McGill, Brian J; Schaepman, Michael E; Schmid, Bernhard; Spaak, Piet; Beckerman, Andrew P; Pennekamp, Frank; Pearse, Ian S; Vasseur, David

2015-01-01

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. PMID:25960188

Bidirectional associations between binge eating and restriction in anorexia nervosa. An ecological momentary assessment study☆

PubMed Central

De Young, Kyle P.; Lavender, Jason M.; Crosby, Ross D.; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Engel, Scott G.; Mitchell, James E.; Crow, Scott J.; Peterson, Carol B.; Le Grange, Daniel

2014-01-01

This study examined the association between restrictive eating behaviors and binge eating in anorexia nervosa (AN) using data collected in the natural environment. Women (N = 118) with DSM-IV full or sub-threshold AN reported eating disorder behaviors, including binge eating episodes, going ≥ 8 waking hours without eating, and skipping meals, during 2 weeks of ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Time-lagged generalized estimating equations tested the following hypotheses: 1) dietary restriction would predict binge eating while controlling for binge eating the previous day; 2) binge eating would predict restriction the subsequent day while controlling for restriction the previous day. After controlling for relevant covariates, the hypotheses were not supported; however, there appeared to be a cumulative effect of repeatedly going 8 consecutive hours without eating (i.e. fasting) on the risk of binge eating among individuals who recently engaged in binge eating. In addition, skipping meals was associated with a lower risk of same day binge eating. The relationship between binge eating and dietary restriction appears to be complex and may vary by type of restrictive eating behavior. Future research should aim to further clarify the nature of the interaction of binge eating and restrictive eating among individuals with AN in order to effectively eliminate these behaviors in treatment. PMID:25134738

Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses (Oenothera).

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Theiss, Kathryn E; Cranston, Karen; Holsinger, Kent E; Donoghue, Michael J

2011-07-01

Competing evolutionary forces shape plant breeding systems (e.g. inbreeding depression, reproductive assurance). Which of these forces prevails in a given population or species is predicted to depend upon such factors as life history, ecological conditions, and geographical context. Here, we examined two such predictions: that self-compatibility should be associated with the annual life history or extreme climatic conditions. We analyzed data from a clade of plants remarkable for variation in breeding system, life history and climatic conditions (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia, Onagraceae). We used a phylogenetic comparative approach and Bayesian or hybrid Bayesian tests to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. Geographic information system (GIS)-based climate data and ecological niche modeling allowed us to quantify climatic conditions. Breeding system and reproductive life span are not correlated in Anogra and Kleinia. Instead, self-compatibility is associated with the extremes of temperature in the coldest part of the year and precipitation in the driest part of the year. In the 60 yr since this pattern was anticipated, this is the first demonstration of a relationship between the evolution of self-compatibility and climatic extremes. We discuss possible explanations for this pattern and possible implications with respect to anthropogenic climate change. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Shifts and disruptions in resource-use trait syndromes during the evolution of herbaceous crops.

PubMed

Milla, Rubén; Morente-López, Javier; Alonso-Rodrigo, J Miguel; Martín-Robles, Nieves; Chapin, F Stuart

2014-10-22

Trait-based ecology predicts that evolution in high-resource agricultural environments should select for suites of traits that enable fast resource acquisition and rapid canopy closure. However, crop breeding targets specific agronomic attributes rather than broad trait syndromes. Breeding for specific traits, together with evolution in high-resource environments, might lead to reduced phenotypic integration, according to predictions from the ecological literature. We provide the first comprehensive test of these hypotheses, based on a trait-screening programme of 30 herbaceous crops and their wild progenitors. During crop evolution plants became larger, which enabled them to compete more effectively for light, but they had poorly integrated phenotypes. In a subset of six herbaceous crop species investigated in greater depth, competitiveness for light increased during early plant domestication, whereas diminished phenotypic integration occurred later during crop improvement. Mass-specific leaf and root traits relevant to resource-use strategies (e.g. specific leaf area or tissue density of fine roots) changed during crop evolution, but in diverse and contrasting directions and magnitudes, depending on the crop species. Reductions in phenotypic integration and overinvestment in traits involved in competition for light may affect the chances of upgrading modern herbaceous crops to face current climatic and food security challenges. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Habitat segregation and ecological character displacement in cryptic African malaria mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Tene Fossog, Billy; Ayala, Diego; Acevedo, Pelayo; Kengne, Pierre; Ngomo Abeso Mebuy, Ignacio; Makanga, Boris; Magnus, Julie; Awono-Ambene, Parfait; Njiokou, Flobert; Pombi, Marco; Antonio-Nkondjio, Christophe; Paupy, Christophe; Besansky, Nora J; Costantini, Carlo

2015-01-01

Understanding how divergent selection generates adaptive phenotypic and population diversification provides a mechanistic explanation of speciation in recently separated species pairs. Towards this goal, we sought ecological gradients of divergence between the cryptic malaria vectors Anopheles coluzzii and An. gambiae and then looked for a physiological trait that may underlie such divergence. Using a large set of occurrence records and eco-geographic information, we built a distribution model to predict the predominance of the two species across their range of sympatry. Our model predicts two novel gradients along which the species segregate: distance from the coastline and altitude. Anopheles coluzzii showed a ‘bimodal’ distribution, predominating in xeric West African savannas and along the western coastal fringe of Africa. To test whether differences in salinity tolerance underlie this habitat segregation, we assessed the acute dose–mortality response to salinity of thirty-two larval populations from Central Africa. In agreement with its coastal predominance, Anopheles coluzzii was overall more tolerant than An. gambiae. Salinity tolerance of both species, however, converged in urban localities, presumably reflecting an adaptive response to osmotic stress from anthropogenic pollutants. When comparing degree of tolerance in conjunction with levels of syntopy, we found evidence of character displacement in this trait. PMID:25926878

Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

PubMed

Tran, Lucy A P

2016-04-01

Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

Tightly congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification identified in a continental ant radiation.

PubMed

Price, Shauna L; Etienne, Rampal S; Powell, Scott

2016-04-01

Adaptive diversification is thought to be shaped by ecological opportunity. A prediction of this ecological process of diversification is that it should result in congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification, but few studies have found this expected association. Here, we study the relationship between rates of lineage diversification and body size evolution in the turtle ants, a diverse Neotropical clade. Using a near complete, time-calibrated phylogeny we investigated lineage diversification dynamics and body size disparity through model fitting analyses and estimation of per-lineage rates of cladogenesis and phenotypic evolution. We identify an exceptionally high degree of congruence between the high rates of lineage and body size diversification in a young clade undergoing renewed diversification in the ecologically distinct Chacoan biogeographical region of South America. It is likely that the region presented turtle ants with novel ecological opportunity, which facilitated a nested burst of diversification and phenotypic evolution within the group. Our results provide a compelling quantitative example of tight congruence between rates of lineage and phenotypic diversification, meeting the key predicted pattern of adaptive diversification shaped by ecological opportunity. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.