Laminar fMRI and computational theories of brain function.

PubMed

Stephan, K E; Petzschner, F H; Kasper, L; Bayer, J; Wellstein, K V; Stefanics, G; Pruessmann, K P; Heinzle, J

2017-11-02

Recently developed methods for functional MRI at the resolution of cortical layers (laminar fMRI) offer a novel window into neurophysiological mechanisms of cortical activity. Beyond physiology, laminar fMRI also offers an unprecedented opportunity to test influential theories of brain function. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian theories of brain function, such as predictive coding, assign specific computational roles to different cortical layers. Combined with computational models, laminar fMRI offers a unique opportunity to test these proposals noninvasively in humans. This review provides a brief overview of predictive coding and related hierarchical Bayesian theories, summarises their predictions with regard to layered cortical computations, examines how these predictions could be tested by laminar fMRI, and considers methodological challenges. We conclude by discussing the potential of laminar fMRI for clinically useful computational assays of layer-specific information processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Periprosthetic infection: where do we stand with regard to Gram stain?

PubMed

Ghanem, Elie; Ketonis, Constantinos; Restrepo, Camilo; Joshi, Ashish; Barrack, Robert; Parvizi, Javad

2009-02-01

One of the routinely used intraoperative tests for diagnosis of periprosthetic infection (PPI) is the Gram stain. It is not known if the result of this test can vary according to the type of joint affected or the number of specimen samples collected. We examined the role of this diagnostic test in a large cohort of patients from a single institution. A positive gram stain was defined as the visualization of bacterial cells or "many neutrophils" (> 5 per high-power field) in the smear. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of each individual diagnostic arm of Gram stain were determined. Combinations were performed in series, which required both tests to be positive to confirm infection, and also in parallel, which necessitated both tests to be negative to rule out infection. The presence of organisms and "many" neutrophils on a Gram smear had high specificity (98-100%) and positive predictive value (89-100%) in both THA and TKA. The sensitivities (30-50%) and negative predictive values (70-79%) of the 2 tests were low for both joint types. When the 2 tests were combined in series, the specificity and positive predictive value were absolute (100%). The sensitivity and the negative predictive value improved for both THA and TKA (43-64% and 82%, respectively). Although the 2 diagnostic arms of Gram staining can be combined to achieve improved negative predictive value (82%), Gram stain continues to have little value in ruling out PPI. With the advances in the field of molecular biology, novel diagnostic modalities need to be designed that can replace these traditional and poor tests.

HPV-testing versus HPV-cytology co-testing to predict the outcome after conization.

PubMed

Bruhn, Laerke Valsøe; Andersen, Sisse Josephine; Hariri, Jalil

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing alone as a prognostic tool to predict recurrent disease within a three-year follow-up period after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2 + . Retrospectively, 128 women with histologically verified CIN2 + who had a conization performed at Southern Jutland Hospital in Denmark between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2013 were included. Histology, cytology and HPV test results were obtained for a three-year follow-up period. 4.7% (6/128) of the cases developed recurrent disease during follow-up. Of the cases without free margins, recurrent dysplasia was detected normal in 10.4% (5/48), whereas in the group with free margins it was 1.3% (1/80). The post-conization HPV test was negative in 67.2% (86/128) and Pap smear normal in 93.7% (120/128). Combining resection margins, cytology and HPV had sensitivity for prediction of recurrent dysplasia of 100%. Specificity was 45.8%, positive predictive value (PPV) 8.5% and negative predictive value (NPV) 100%. Using HPV test alone as a predictor of recurrent dysplasia gave a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity 69.7%, PPV 11.9% and NPV 98.8%. Combining resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity 45.9%, PPV 8.3% and NPV 100%. HPV test at six months control post-conization gave an NPV of 98.8% and can be used as a solitary test to identify women at risk for recurrent disease three years after treatment for precursor lesions. Using both resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100% and NPV 100%. Adding cytology did not increase the predictive value. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of a new in-clinic test system to detect feline immunodeficiency virus and feline leukemia virus infection.

PubMed

Sand, Christina; Englert, Theresa; Egberink, Herman; Lutz, Hans; Hartmann, Katrin

2010-06-01

Many in-house tests for the diagnosis of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) infection are licensed for use in veterinary practice. A new test with unknown performance has recently appeared on the market. The aims of this study were to define the efficacy of a new in-clinic test system, the Anigen Rapid FIV Ab/FeLV Ag Test, and to compare it with the current leading in-clinic test, the SNAP Kombi Plus FeLV Antigen/FIB Antibody Test. Three-hundred serum samples from randomly selected healthy and diseased cats presented to the Clinic of Small Animal Medicine at Ludwig Maximilian University were tested using both the Anigen Rapid Test and the SNAP Kombi Plus Test. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for both tests using Western blot as the gold standard for verification of FIV infection and PCR as the gold standard for FeLV infection. The presence of antibodies against FIV was confirmed by Western blot in 9/300 samples (prevalence 3%). FeLV DNA was detected by PCR in 15/300 samples (prevalence 5%). For FIV infection the Anigen Rapid Test had a sensitivity of 88.9%, specificity of 99.7%, positive predictive value of 88.9%, and negative predictive value of 99.7%. For FeLV infection, the Anigen Rapid Test had a sensitivity of 40.0%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 96.9%. Diagnostic accuracy was similar to that of the SNAP Kombi Plus Test. The new Anigen Rapid FIV Ab/FeLV Ag Test performed very well and can be recommended for use in veterinary practice.

A test of safety, violence prevention, and civility climate domain-specific relationships with relevant workplace hazards.

PubMed

Gazica, Michele W; Spector, Paul E

2016-01-01

Safety climate, violence prevention climate, and civility climate were independently developed and linked to domain-specific workplace hazards, although all three were designed to promote the physical and psychological safety of workers. To test domain specificity between conceptually related workplace climates and relevant workplace hazards. Data were collected from 368 persons employed in various industries and descriptive statistics were calculated for all study variables. Correlational and relative weights analyses were used to test for domain specificity. The three climate domains were similarly predictive of most workplace hazards, regardless of domain specificity. This study suggests that the three climate domains share a common higher order construct that may predict relevant workplace hazards better than any of the scales alone.

A comparative study of the typhidot (Dot-EIA) and Widal tests in blood culture positive cases of typhoid fever.

PubMed

Khoharo, Haji Khan

2011-07-01

Seventy-six blood culture positive typhoid cases and forty-eight controls were studied. The typhidot test was positive in 74 (97.36%) cases, with a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of 96%, 89.5%, and 95%, respectively, compared to the Widal test which was positive in 56 (73.68%) cases with a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 72%, 87%, and 87%, respectively (P = 0.001). In the control group, seven (14.5%) cases tested positive for the Widal test and two (4.16%) for the typhidot (P = 0.001), yielding the sensitivity and specificity for the Widal test and the typhidot test of 63% and 83%, and 85% and 97%, respectively. We conclude that the Dot-EIA (enzyme immunoassay; typhidot) is a more sensitive and specific test which is easy to perform and more reliable compared to the Widal test and that it is useful in early therapy.

Data mining methods in the prediction of Dementia: A real-data comparison of the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and random forests

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Dementia and cognitive impairment associated with aging are a major medical and social concern. Neuropsychological testing is a key element in the diagnostic procedures of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), but has presently a limited value in the prediction of progression to dementia. We advance the hypothesis that newer statistical classification methods derived from data mining and machine learning methods like Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Random Forests can improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of predictions obtained from neuropsychological testing. Seven non parametric classifiers derived from data mining methods (Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Networks, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, CART, CHAID and QUEST Classification Trees and Random Forests) were compared to three traditional classifiers (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression) in terms of overall classification accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, Area under the ROC curve and Press'Q. Model predictors were 10 neuropsychological tests currently used in the diagnosis of dementia. Statistical distributions of classification parameters obtained from a 5-fold cross-validation were compared using the Friedman's nonparametric test. Results Press' Q test showed that all classifiers performed better than chance alone (p < 0.05). Support Vector Machines showed the larger overall classification accuracy (Median (Me) = 0.76) an area under the ROC (Me = 0.90). However this method showed high specificity (Me = 1.0) but low sensitivity (Me = 0.3). Random Forest ranked second in overall accuracy (Me = 0.73) with high area under the ROC (Me = 0.73) specificity (Me = 0.73) and sensitivity (Me = 0.64). Linear Discriminant Analysis also showed acceptable overall accuracy (Me = 0.66), with acceptable area under the ROC (Me = 0.72) specificity (Me = 0.66) and sensitivity (Me = 0.64). The remaining classifiers showed overall classification accuracy above a median value of 0.63, but for most sensitivity was around or even lower than a median value of 0.5. Conclusions When taking into account sensitivity, specificity and overall classification accuracy Random Forests and Linear Discriminant analysis rank first among all the classifiers tested in prediction of dementia using several neuropsychological tests. These methods may be used to improve accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of Dementia predictions from neuropsychological testing. PMID:21849043

Measures of accuracy and performance of diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Drobatz, Kenneth J

2009-05-01

Diagnostic tests are integral to the practice of veterinary cardiology, any other specialty, and general veterinary medicine. Developing and understanding diagnostic tests is one of the cornerstones of clinical research. This manuscript describes the diagnostic test properties including sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, receiver operating characteristic curve. Review of practical book chapters and standard statistics manuscripts. Diagnostics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and receiver operating characteristic curve are described and illustrated. Basic understanding of how diagnostic tests are developed and interpreted is essential in reviewing clinical scientific papers and understanding evidence based medicine.

Differential Prediction Generalization in College Admissions Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aguinis, Herman; Culpepper, Steven A.; Pierce, Charles A.

2016-01-01

We introduce the concept of "differential prediction generalization" in the context of college admissions testing. Specifically, we assess the extent to which predicted first-year college grade point average (GPA) based on high-school grade point average (HSGPA) and SAT scores depends on a student's ethnicity and gender and whether this…

Predictive Accuracy of Exercise Stress Testing the Healthy Adult.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamont, Linda S.

1981-01-01

Exercise stress testing provides information on the aerobic capacity, heart rate, and blood pressure responses to graded exercises of a healthy adult. The reliability of exercise tests as a diagnostic procedure is discussed in relation to sensitivity and specificity and predictive accuracy. (JN)

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test’s attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system. PMID:29209603

Periprosthetic infection: where do we stand with regard to Gram stain?

PubMed Central

Ghanem, Elie; Ketonis, Constantinos; Restrepo, Camilo; Joshi, Ashish; Barrack, Robert

2009-01-01

Background and purpose One of the routinely used intraoperative tests for diagnosis of periprosthetic infection (PPI) is the Gram stain. It is not known if the result of this test can vary according to the type of joint affected or the number of specimen samples collected. We examined the role of this diagnostic test in a large cohort of patients from a single institution. Materials and methods A positive gram stain was defined as the visualization of bacterial cells or “many neutrophils” (> 5 per high-power field) in the smear. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of each individual diagnostic arm of Gram stain were determined. Combinations were performed in series, which required both tests to be positive to confirm infection, and also in parallel, which necessitated both tests to be negative to rule out infection. Results The presence of organisms and “many” neutrophils on a Gram smear had high specificity (98–100%) and positive predictive value (89–100%) in both THA and TKA. The sensitivities (30–50%) and negative predictive values (70–79%) of the 2 tests were low for both joint types. When the 2 tests were combined in series, the specificity and positive predictive value were absolute (100%). The sensitivity and the negative predictive value improved for both THA and TKA (43–64% and 82%, respectively). Interpretation Although the 2 diagnostic arms of Gram staining can be combined to achieve improved negative predictive value (82%), Gram stain continues to have little value in ruling out PPI. With the advances in the field of molecular biology, novel diagnostic modalities need to be designed that can replace these traditional and poor tests. PMID:19297787

Predictive values of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: a clinical study.

PubMed

Villa-Chávez, Carlos E; Patiño-Marín, Nuria; Loyola-Rodríguez, Juan P; Zavala-Alonso, Norma V; Martínez-Castañón, Gabriel A; Medina-Solís, Carlo E

2013-08-01

For a diagnostic test to be useful, it is necessary to determine the probability that the test will provide the correct diagnosis. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the predictive value of diagnostics. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, accuracy, and reproducibility of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. The thermal tests studied were the 1, 1, 1, 2-tetrafluoroethane (cold) and hot gutta-percha (hot) tests. For the electrical test, the Analytic Technology Pulp Tester (Analytic Technology, Redmond, WA) was used. A total of 110 teeth were tested: 60 teeth with vital pulp and 50 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 45%). The ideal standard was established by direct pulp inspection. The sensitivities of the diagnostic tests were 0.88 for the cold test, 0.86 for the heat test, and 0.76 for the electrical test, and the specificity was 1.0 for all 3 tests. The negative predictive value was 0.90 for the cold test, 0.89 for the heat test, and 0.83 for the electrical test, and the positive predictive value was 1.0 for all 3 tests. The highest accuracy (0.94) and reproducibility (0.88) were observed for the cold test. The cold test was the most accurate method for diagnostic testing. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Urabe, Naohisa; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. PMID:28330887

A test of safety, violence prevention, and civility climate domain-specific relationships with relevant workplace hazards

PubMed Central

Spector, Paul E.

2016-01-01

Background Safety climate, violence prevention climate, and civility climate were independently developed and linked to domain-specific workplace hazards, although all three were designed to promote the physical and psychological safety of workers. Purpose To test domain specificity between conceptually related workplace climates and relevant workplace hazards. Methods Data were collected from 368 persons employed in various industries and descriptive statistics were calculated for all study variables. Correlational and relative weights analyses were used to test for domain specificity. Results The three climate domains were similarly predictive of most workplace hazards, regardless of domain specificity. Discussion This study suggests that the three climate domains share a common higher order construct that may predict relevant workplace hazards better than any of the scales alone. PMID:27110930

Accuracy statistics in predicting Independent Activities of Daily Living (IADL) capacity with comprehensive and brief neuropsychological test batteries.

PubMed

Karzmark, Peter; Deutsch, Gayle K

2018-01-01

This investigation was designed to determine the predictive accuracy of a comprehensive neuropsychological and brief neuropsychological test battery with regard to the capacity to perform instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). Accuracy statistics that included measures of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predicted power and positive likelihood ratio were calculated for both types of batteries. The sample was drawn from a general neurological group of adults (n = 117) that included a number of older participants (age >55; n = 38). Standardized neuropsychological assessments were administered to all participants and were comprised of the Halstead Reitan Battery and portions of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-III. A comprehensive test battery yielded a moderate increase over base-rate in predictive accuracy that generalized to older individuals. There was only limited support for using a brief battery, for although sensitivity was high, specificity was low. We found that a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery provided good classification accuracy for predicting IADL capacity.

Prediction of challenge test results by flour-specific IgE and skin prick test in symptomatic bakers.

PubMed

van Kampen, V; Rabstein, S; Sander, I; Merget, R; Brüning, T; Broding, H C; Keller, C; Müsken, H; Overlack, A; Schultze-Werninghaus, G; Walusiak, J; Raulf-Heimsoth, M

2008-07-01

Wheat and rye flours are among the most important allergens causing occupational asthma. Usually, the diagnosis of baker's asthma is based on inhalation challenge tests with flours. To evaluate the relevance of flour-specific serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) and skin prick test (SPT) in the diagnosis of baker's asthma and to define flour-specific IgE concentrations and wheal sizes that allow a prediction of the outcome of challenge testing. Bronchial and nasal challenge tests with wheat (rye) flour were performed in 71 (95) symptomatic bakers. Determinations of flour-specific IgE as well as SPTs were performed in all subjects. Analyses included the calculation of sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) at different IgE concentrations and different wheal sizes, and receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) plots with the challenge result as gold standard. Thirty-seven bakers were positive in the challenge with wheat flour, while 63 were positive with rye flour. Depending on the flour-specific IgE concentrations (wheal size), PPV was 74-100% (74-100%) for wheat and 82-100% (91-100%) for rye flour, respectively. The minimal cut-off values with a PPV of 100% were 2.32 kU/l (5.0 mm) for wheat flour and 9.64 kU/l (4.5 mm) for rye flour. The shapes of the ROC plots were similar for wheat and rye flour. High concentrations of flour-specific IgE and clear SPT results in symptomatic bakers are good predictors for a positive challenge test. Challenge tests with flours may be avoided in strongly sensitized bakers.

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited sound reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. This scale can help clinical staff members to quickly and accurately diagnose cognitive impairment and provide appropriate treatment as early as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating Diagnostic Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests in Assessment of Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

PubMed

Omran, Dalia; Zayed, Rania A; Nabeel, Mohammed M; Mobarak, Lamiaa; Zakaria, Zeinab; Farid, Azza; Hassany, Mohamed; Saif, Sameh; Mostafa, Muhammad; Saad, Omar Khalid; Yosry, Ayman

2018-05-01

Stage of liver fibrosis is critical for treatment decision and prediction of outcomes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of transient elastography (TE)-FibroScan and noninvasive serum markers tests in the assessment of liver fibrosis in CHC patients, in reference to liver biopsy. One-hundred treatment-naive CHC patients were subjected to liver biopsy, TE-FibroScan, and eight serum biomarkers tests; AST/ALT ratio (AAR), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), age-platelet index (AP index), fibrosis quotient (FibroQ), fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), cirrhosis discriminant score (CDS), King score, and Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI). Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of these noninvasive methods in predicting significant fibrosis in CHC patients. TE-FibroScan predicted significant fibrosis at cutoff value 8.5 kPa with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.90, sensitivity 83%, specificity 91.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) 91.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 84.4%. Serum biomarkers tests showed that AP index and FibroQ had the highest diagnostic accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis at cutoff 4.5 and 2.7, AUROC was 0.8 and 0.8 with sensitivity 73.6% and 73.6%, specificity 70.2% and 68.1%, PPV 71.1% and 69.8%, and NPV 72.9% and 72.3%, respectively. Combined AP index and FibroQ had AUROC 0.83 with sensitivity 73.6%, specificity 80.9%, PPV 79.6%, and NPV 75.7% for predicting significant liver fibrosis. APRI, FIB-4, CDS, King score, and GUCI had intermediate accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis with AUROC 0.68, 0.78, 0.74, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively, while AAR had low accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis. TE-FibroScan is the most accurate noninvasive alternative to liver biopsy. AP index and FibroQ, either as individual tests or combined, have good accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis, and are better combined for higher specificity.

Genetic Counselling for Predictive Testing in Huntington's Disease in One Centre since 1993. Gender-Specific Aspects of Decision-Making.

PubMed

Arning, Larissa; Witt, Constantin N; Epplen, Jörg T; Stemmler, Susanne

2015-01-01

The discovery of the mutation causing Huntington's disease (HD) in 1993 allowed direct mutation analysis and predictive testing to identify currently unaffected carriers with a sensitivity and specificity of virtually 100%. The present study was designed to comprehensively profile the participants who sought predictive testing for HD between 1993 and 2009 in our Huntington centre. Using a retrospective design, we analysed the written documentation of the counselling sessions for all referrals for predictive mutation testing in this time span. Six hundred sixty-three individuals at risk for HD requested predictive testing. Roughly half (n = 333) completed the protocol and received their test result. In general our findings are in accordance with other reports: most participants share an a priori risk of 50% (91.1%); more females request testing (58.5%); and those who ask for the result are mostly in their 30 s (mean = 35.1 years). Of those at 50% or 25% prior risks, 47.4% and 22.7%, respectively, tested positive in accordance with the respective risk of inheriting HD. Generally, more participants with an affected mother than father sought genetic testing (52.5% versus 47.5%). Interestingly, this difference was especially evident in the group of females who finally withdrew from testing (59.1%, p = 0.040). Men, in particular those who decided in favour of the test, were more often accompanied by their partner in the pre-test counselling session than vice versa (67.9% versus 44.7%, p = 0.003). On the other hand, significantly more men who were being tested did not have a companion in the pre-test session as compared with men who decided against the test (40.0% versus 25.7%, p = 0.012). During the first four years of predictive testing (1993–1996) more participants completed the protocol and received their test result as in later years. Yet, in this early time span significantly fewer females finally decided in favour of the test (48.4%, p = 0.005). These findings are discussed longitudinally and in the context of the experience in other centres. We present new gender-specific aspects of decision-making for predictive HD tests.

Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values: diagnosing purple mange.

PubMed

Collier, Jill; Huebscher, Roxana

2010-04-01

To shed light on several epidemiological terms for better understanding of diagnostic testing measures by using a mythical condition, "purple mange." Scientific literature related to epidemiology and statistical tests. Nurse practitioners (NPs) use the concepts of sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPEC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) daily in primary care and specialty areas. In addition, PPV and NPV vary with the prevalence of a condition. At times, NPs misunderstand the meaning of these terms. In order to develop appropriate treatment plans, an understanding of the concepts of SEN, SPEC, PPV, and NPV is important for interpreting test results. The authors have used this mythical condition purple mange as a teaching tool for NP students.

Determination of the diagnostic value of the Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in predicting difficult intubation: A prospective descriptive study.

PubMed

Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Soleimanpour, Hassan; Golzari, Samad Ej; Nejabatian, Arezoo; Pourlak, Tannaz; Amani, Masoumeh; Hajmohammadi, Saeed; Hosseinzadeh, Hamzeh; Esfanjani, Robab Mehdizadeh

2017-02-01

Difficult intubation is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity related to anesthesia. We decided to evaluate the value of Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in the prediction of difficult intubation. In a prospective descriptive study, data from 132 patients who were candidates for elective maxillofacial surgeries under general anesthesia were gathered. Facial Angles were measured by a maxillofacial surgeon according to cephalometry. The Modified Mallampati Score and Upper Lip Bite Test were first measured by an anesthesiologist and then another anesthesiologist was assigned to record the Cormack and Lehane score during the intubation. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as difficult intubation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were calculated for all tests. Difficult intubation was reported in 12% of the patients. Facial Angle≤82.5° can predict difficult intubation with 87.5% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity. Among the three tests, a high Modified Mallampati Score had the highest specificity (94.5%) and a high Modified Mallampati Score and Facial Angle (FA≤82.5°) had the highest sensitivity (87.5%). The highest NPV, sensitivity and Youden index were observed when using Facial Angle with the Modified Mallampati Score or with Upper Lip Bite Test. Facial Angle has a high sensitivity, NPV and Youden index for the prediction of difficult intubation, but the best result is achieved when Facial Angle is used in combination with either the Modified Mallampati Score or Upper Lip Bit Test. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

General object recognition is specific: Evidence from novel and familiar objects.

PubMed

Richler, Jennifer J; Wilmer, Jeremy B; Gauthier, Isabel

2017-09-01

In tests of object recognition, individual differences typically correlate modestly but nontrivially across familiar categories (e.g. cars, faces, shoes, birds, mushrooms). In theory, these correlations could reflect either global, non-specific mechanisms, such as general intelligence (IQ), or more specific mechanisms. Here, we introduce two separate methods for effectively capturing category-general performance variation, one that uses novel objects and one that uses familiar objects. In each case, we show that category-general performance variance is unrelated to IQ, thereby implicating more specific mechanisms. The first approach examines three newly developed novel object memory tests (NOMTs). We predicted that NOMTs would exhibit more shared, category-general variance than familiar object memory tests (FOMTs) because novel objects, unlike familiar objects, lack category-specific environmental influences (e.g. exposure to car magazines or botany classes). This prediction held, and remarkably, virtually none of the substantial shared variance among NOMTs was explained by IQ. Also, while NOMTs correlated nontrivially with two FOMTs (faces, cars), these correlations were smaller than among NOMTs and no larger than between the face and car tests themselves, suggesting that the category-general variance captured by NOMTs is specific not only relative to IQ, but also, to some degree, relative to both face and car recognition. The second approach averaged performance across multiple FOMTs, which we predicted would increase category-general variance by averaging out category-specific factors. This prediction held, and as with NOMTs, virtually none of the shared variance among FOMTs was explained by IQ. Overall, these results support the existence of object recognition mechanisms that, though category-general, are specific relative to IQ and substantially separable from face and car recognition. They also add sensitive, well-normed NOMTs to the tools available to study object recognition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What Do Childhood Anxiety Disorders Predict?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bittner, Antje; Egger, Helen L.; Erkanli, Alaattin; Costello, E. Jane; Foley, Debra L.; Angold, Adrian

2007-01-01

Background: Few longitudinal studies of child and adolescent psychopathology have examined the links between specific childhood anxiety disorders and adolescent psychiatric disorder. In this paper we test the predictive specificity of separation anxiety disorder (SAD), overanxious disorder (OAD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and social…

The predictive value of specific immunoglobulin E levels in serum for the outcome of the development of tolerance in cow's milk allergy.

PubMed

Martorell, A; García Ara, M C; Plaza, A M; Boné, J; Nevot, S; Echeverria, L; Alonso, E; Garde, J

2008-01-01

Immunoglobulin E-mediated allergy to cow's milk protein (CMP) tends to subside over years of follow-up. The gold standard for detecting such allergy has been the oral challenge test. The development of some other test for determining the correct timing of the oral challenge test would avoid unnecessary patient discomfort. The aim of this study was to determine whether monitoring cow's milk (CM) specific IgE levels over time can be used as a predictor for determining when patients develop clinical tolerance. A prospective 4-year follow-up study was made of 170 patients with IgE-mediated allergy to CMP, involving periodic evaluations (12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months) with the determination of casein and CM specific IgE on each visit, along with CM challenge testing. ROC curves were used to analyse the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the casein and CM specific IgE levels versus the challenge test outcomes at the different moments of follow-up. In the course of follow-up, 140 infants (82 %) became tolerant. Specific IgE levels to CM: 2.58, 2.5, 2.7, 2.26, 5 kU(A)/l and to casein: 0.97, 1.22, 3, 2.39, 2.73 kU(A)/l, respectively, predicted clinical reactivity (greatest diagnostic efficiency values) at the different analysed moments of follow-up (12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 months). Quantification of CMP specific IgE is a useful test for diagnosing symptomatic allergy to CM in the paediatric population, and could eliminate the need to perform oral challenges tests in a significant number of children.

External validation of a nomogram for prediction of side-specific extracapsular extension at robotic radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Zorn, Kevin C; Gallina, Andrea; Hutterer, Georg C; Walz, Jochen; Shalhav, Arieh L; Zagaja, Gregory P; Valiquette, Luc; Gofrit, Ofer N; Orvieto, Marcelo A; Taxy, Jerome B; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2007-11-01

Several staging tools have been developed for open radical prostatectomy (ORP) patients. However, the validity of these tools has never been formally tested in patients treated with robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP). We tested the accuracy of an ORP-derived nomogram in predicting the rate of extracapsular extension (ECE) in a large RALP cohort. Serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) and side-specific clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum information were used in a previously validated nomogram predicting side-specific ECE. The nomogram-derived predictions were compared with the observed rate of ECE, and the accuracy of the predictions was quantified. Each prostate lobe was analyzed independently. As complete data were available for 576 patients, the analyses targeted 1152 prostate lobes. Median age and serum PSA concentration at radical prostatectomy were 60 years and 5.4 ng/mL, respectively. The majority of side-specific clinical stages were T(1c) (993; 86.2%). Most side-specific biopsy Gleason sums were 6 (572; 49.7%). The median side-specific percentages of positive cores and of cancer were, respectively, 20.0% and 5.0%. At final pathologic review, 107 patients (18.6%) had ECE, and side-specific ECE was present in 117 patients (20.3%). The nomogram was 89% accurate in the RALP cohort v 84% in the previously reported ORP validation. The ORP side-specific ECE nomogram is highly accurate in the RALP population, suggesting that predictive and possibly prognostic tools developed in ORP patients may be equally accurate in their RALP counterparts.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women attending Boo-Ali Hospital Tehran Iran: Urine analysis vs. urine culture.

PubMed

Etminan-Bakhsh, Mina; Tadi, Sima; Darabi, Roksana

2017-11-01

Asymptomatic bacteriuria is one of the common problems in pregnancy. Asymptomatic bacteriuria is associated with pyelonephritis, preterm labor and low birth weight infants. The physiological and anatomical changes in pregnancy facilitate urinary tract infection (UTI) during pregnancy. Several tests are available for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. The urine culture is a gold standard diagnostic test for asymptomatic bacteriuria but it is expensive and time-consuming. Screening methods may be useful in detecting high-risk pregnant women for asymptomatic bacteriuria. The aim of the present study was to compare urine analysis as a rapid screening test to urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. A total of 123 pregnant women attending the obstetrics clinic of Boo-Ali hospital in Tehran, Iran from March 2013 to September 2014 were included in the present diagnostic cross-sectional study. One hundred twenty three mid-stream urine samples were inoculated into cultures and were processed by dipstick (nitrite test and leucocyte esterase test) and microscopic pus cell count. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of nitrite test, leucocyte esterase test and microscopic pus cell count were compared with urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria by using SPSS version 19. Of 123 urine samples, significant asymptomatic bacteriuria (≥10 4 cfu/Ml) was detected in 8 (6.5%) subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of nitrite test were 37% and 100% respectively. The sensitivity of pus cell count alone and leucocyte esterase test alone were 100% but the specificity of them were 64% and 65% respectively. We found high negative predictive value by Pus cell count and the leucocyte esterase test (100%) and low positive predictive value by them (16% and 17% respectively). Urine culture is the most useful test for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None of our screening tests had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, whereas we can only refer the pregnant women with positive leucocyte esterase test and significant pyuria to the urine culture.

HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction based on two-stage feature selection method.

PubMed

Niu, Bing; Yuan, Xiao-Cheng; Roeper, Preston; Su, Qiang; Peng, Chun-Rong; Yin, Jing-Yuan; Ding, Juan; Li, HaiPeng; Lu, Wen-Cong

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the mechanism of HIV protease cleavage specificity is critical to the design of specific and effective HIV inhibitors. Searching for an accurate, robust, and rapid method to correctly predict the cleavage sites in proteins is crucial when searching for possible HIV inhibitors. In this article, HIV-1 protease specificity was studied using the correlation-based feature subset (CfsSubset) selection method combined with Genetic Algorithms method. Thirty important biochemical features were found based on a jackknife test from the original data set containing 4,248 features. By using the AdaBoost method with the thirty selected features the prediction model yields an accuracy of 96.7% for the jackknife test and 92.1% for an independent set test, with increased accuracy over the original dataset by 6.7% and 77.4%, respectively. Our feature selection scheme could be a useful technique for finding effective competitive inhibitors of HIV protease.

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

PubMed

Urabe, Naohisa; Sakamoto, Susumu; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-06-01

We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Kindergarten Predictors of Math Learning Disability

PubMed Central

Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.; Thompson, Richard E.

2009-01-01

The aim of the present study was to address how to effectively predict mathematics learning disability (MLD). Specifically, we addressed whether cognitive data obtained during kindergarten can effectively predict which children will have MLD in third grade, whether an abbreviated test battery could be as effective as a standard psychoeducational assessment at predicting MLD, and whether the abbreviated battery corresponded to the literature on MLD characteristics. Participants were 226 children who enrolled in a 4-year prospective longitudinal study during kindergarten. We administered measures of mathematics achievement, formal and informal mathematics ability, visual-spatial reasoning, and rapid automatized naming and examined which test scores and test items from kindergarten best predicted MLD at grades 2 and 3. Statistical models using standardized scores from the entire test battery correctly classified ~80–83 percent of the participants as having, or not having, MLD. Regression models using scores from only individual test items were less predictive than models containing the standard scores, except for models using a specific subset of test items that dealt with reading numerals, number constancy, magnitude judgments of one-digit numbers, or mental addition of one-digit numbers. These models were as accurate in predicting MLD as was the model including the entire set of standard scores from the battery of tests examined. Our findings indicate that it is possible to effectively predict which kindergartners are at risk for MLD, and thus the findings have implications for early screening of MLD. PMID:20084182

Analysis of the Sensitivity and Specificity of Noninvasive Imaging Tests for the Diagnosis of Renal Artery Stenosis

PubMed Central

Borelli, Flavio Antonio de Oliveira; Pinto, Ibraim M. F.; Amodeo, Celso; Smanio, Paola E. P.; Kambara, Antonio M.; Petisco, Ana Claudia G.; Moreira, Samuel M.; Paiva, Ricardo Calil; Lopes, Hugo Belotti; Sousa, Amanda G. M. R.

2013-01-01

Background Aging and atherosclerosis are related to renovascular hypertension in elderly individuals. Regardless of comorbidities, renal artery stenosis is itself an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Objective To define the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of noninvasive imaging tests used in the diagnosis of renal artery stenosis. Methods In a group of 61 patients recruited, 122 arteries were analized, thus permitting the definition of sensitivity, specificity, and the relative contribution of each imaging study performed (Doppler, scintigraphy and computed tomographic angiography in comparison to renal arteriography). Results The mean age was 65.43 years (standard deviation: 8.7). Of the variables related to the study population that were compared to arteriography, two correlated with renal artery stenosis, renal dysfunction and triglycerides. The median glomerular filtration rate was 52.8 mL/min/m2. Doppler showed sensitivity of 82.90%, specificity of 70%, a positive predictive value of 85% and negative predictive value of 66.70%. For tomography, sensitivity was 66.70%, specificity 80%, positive predictive value 87.50% and negative predictive value 55.20%. With these findings, we could identify the imaging tests that best detected stenosis. Conclusion Tomography and Doppler showed good quality and efficacy in the diagnosis of renal artery stenosis, with Doppler having the advantage of not requiring the use of contrast medium for the assessment of a disease that is common in diabetics and is associated with renal dysfunction and severe left ventricular dysfunction. PMID:24061685

Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. PMID:26109105

Predicting toxic effects of copper on aquatic biota in mineralized areas by using the Biotic Ligand Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kathleen S.; Ranville, James F.; Adams, M.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Church, Stan E.; Fey, David L.; Wanty, Richard B.; Crock, James G.

2006-01-01

The chemical speciation of metals influences their biological effects. The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) is a computational approach to predict chemical speciation and acute toxicological effects of metals on aquatic biota. Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency incorporated the BLM into their regulatory water-quality criteria for copper. Results from three different laboratory copper toxicity tests were compared with BLM predictions for simulated test-waters. This was done to evaluate the ability of the BLM to accurately predict the effects of hardness and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron on aquatic toxicity. In addition, we evaluated whether the BLM and the three toxicity tests provide consistent results. Comparison of BLM predictions with two types of Ceriodaphnia dubia toxicity tests shows that there is fairly good agreement between predicted LC50 values computed by the BLM and LC50 values determined from the two toxicity tests. Specifically, the effect of increasing calcium concentration (and hardness) on copper toxicity appears to be minimal. Also, there is fairly good agreement between the BLM and the two toxicity tests for test solutions containing elevated DOC, for which the LC50 is 3-to-5 times greater (less toxic) than the LC50 for the lower-DOC test water. This illustrates the protective effects of DOC on copper toxicity and demonstrates the ability of the BLM to predict these protective effects. In contrast, for test solutions with added iron there is a decrease in LC50 values (increase in toxicity) in results from the two C. dubia toxicity tests, and the agreement between BLM LC50 predictions and results from these toxicity tests is poor. The inability of the BLM to account for competitive iron binding to DOC or DOC fractionation may be a significant shortcoming of the BLM for predicting site- specific water-quality criteria in streams affected by iron-rich acidic drainage in mined and mineralized areas.

Preseason Functional Movement Screen Component Tests Predict Severe Contact Injuries in Professional Rugby Union Players.

PubMed

Tee, Jason C; Klingbiel, Jannie F G; Collins, Robert; Lambert, Mike I; Coopoo, Yoga

2016-11-01

Tee, JC, Klingbiel, JFG, Collins, R, Lambert, MI, and Coopoo, Y. Preseason Functional Movement Screen component tests predict severe contact injuries in professional rugby union players. J Strength Cond Res 30(11): 3194-3203, 2016-Rugby union is a collision sport with a relatively high risk of injury. The ability of the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) or its component tests to predict the occurrence of severe (≥28 days) injuries in professional players was assessed. Ninety FMS test observations from 62 players across 4 different time periods were compared with severe injuries sustained during 6 months after FMS testing. Mean composite FMS scores were significantly lower in players who sustained severe injury (injured 13.2 ± 1.5 vs. noninjured 14.5 ± 1.4, Effect Size = 0.83, large) because of differences in in-line lunge (ILL) and active straight leg raise scores (ASLR). Receiver-operated characteristic curves and 2 × 2 contingency tables were used to determine that ASLR (cut-off 2/3) was the injury predictor with the greatest sensitivity (0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.79-1.0). Adding the ILL in combination with ASLR (ILL + ASLR) improved the specificity of the injury prediction model (ASLR specificity = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.18-0.43 vs. ASLR + ILL specificity = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.39-0.66, p ≤ 0.05). Further analysis was performed to determine whether FMS tests could predict contact and noncontact injuries. The FMS composite score and various combinations of component tests (deep squat [DS] + ILL, ILL + ASLR, and DS + ILL + ASLR) were all significant predictors of contact injury. The FMS composite score also predicted noncontact injury, but no component test or combination thereof produced a similar result. These findings indicate that low scores on various FMS component tests are risk factors for injury in professional rugby players.

Testing Moral Foundation Theory: Are Specific Moral Emotions Elicited by Specific Moral Transgressions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landmann, Helen; Hess, Ursula

2018-01-01

Moral foundation theory posits that specific moral transgressions elicit specific moral emotions. To test this claim, participants (N = 195) were asked to rate their emotions in response to moral violation vignettes. We found that compassion and disgust were associated with care and purity respectively as predicted by moral foundation theory.…

Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

PubMed

Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

2010-08-01

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of simulations of the deposition of fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands (mid-Pacific), at the Nevada Test Site (U.S.), and at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (Kazakhstan) were performed. The results of the Marshall Islands simulations were used in a limited fashion to support the dose reconstruction described in companion papers within this volume.

PREDICTIONS OF DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION OF FALLOUT FROM NUCLEAR TESTING USING THE NOAA-HYSPLIT METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

PubMed Central

Moroz, Brian E.; Beck, Harold L.; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L.

2013-01-01

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly, where little historical fallout monitoring data is available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particles sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of simulations of the deposition of fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands, at the Nevada Test Site (USA), and at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (Kazakhstan) were performed using reanalysis data composed of historic meteorological observations. The results of the Marshall Islands simulations were used in a limited fashion to support the dose reconstruction described in companion papers within this volume. PMID:20622555

An investigation of new toxicity test method performance in validation studies: 1. Toxicity test methods that have predictive capacity no greater than chance.

PubMed

Bruner, L H; Carr, G J; Harbell, J W; Curren, R D

2002-06-01

An approach commonly used to measure new toxicity test method (NTM) performance in validation studies is to divide toxicity results into positive and negative classifications, and the identify true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) results. After this step is completed, the contingent probability statistics (CPS), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) are calculated. Although these statistics are widely used and often the only statistics used to assess the performance of toxicity test methods, there is little specific guidance in the validation literature on what values for these statistics indicate adequate performance. The purpose of this study was to begin developing data-based answers to this question by characterizing the CPS obtained from an NTM whose data have a completely random association with a reference test method (RTM). Determining the CPS of this worst-case scenario is useful because it provides a lower baseline from which the performance of an NTM can be judged in future validation studies. It also provides an indication of relationships in the CPS that help identify random or near-random relationships in the data. The results from this study of randomly associated tests show that the values obtained for the statistics vary significantly depending on the cut-offs chosen, that high values can be obtained for individual statistics, and that the different measures cannot be considered independently when evaluating the performance of an NTM. When the association between results of an NTM and RTM is random the sum of the complementary pairs of statistics (sensitivity + specificity, NPV + PPV) is approximately 1, and the prevalence (i.e., the proportion of toxic chemicals in the population of chemicals) and PPV are equal. Given that combinations of high sensitivity-low specificity or low specificity-high sensitivity (i.e., the sum of the sensitivity and specificity equal to approximately 1) indicate lack of predictive capacity, an NTM having these performance characteristics should be considered no better for predicting toxicity than by chance alone.

Do children with autism have a theory of mind? A non-verbal test of autism vs. specific language impairment.

PubMed

Colle, Livia; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Hill, Jacqueline

2007-04-01

Children with autism have delays in the development of theory of mind. However, the sub-group of children with autism who have little or no language have gone untested since false belief tests (FB) typically involve language. FB understanding has been reported to be intact in children with specific language impairment (SLI). This raises the possibility that a non-verbal FB test would distinguish children with autism vs. children with SLI. The present study tested two predictions: (1) FB understanding is to some extent independent of language ability; and (2) Children with autism with low language levels show specific impairment in theory of mind. Results confirmed both predictions. Results are discussed in terms of the role of language in the development of mindreading.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies accounting for disease prevalence: alternative parameterizations and model selection.

PubMed

Chu, Haitao; Nie, Lei; Cole, Stephen R; Poole, Charles

2009-08-15

In a meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, the sensitivities and specificities of a diagnostic test may depend on the disease prevalence since the severity and definition of disease may differ from study to study due to the design and the population considered. In this paper, we extend the bivariate nonlinear random effects model on sensitivities and specificities to jointly model the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities using trivariate nonlinear random-effects models. Furthermore, as an alternative parameterization, we also propose jointly modeling the test prevalence and the predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. These models allow investigators to study the complex relationship among the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities; or among test prevalence and the predictive values, which can reveal hidden information about test performance. We illustrate the proposed two approaches by reanalyzing the data from a meta-analysis of radiological evaluation of lymph node metastases in patients with cervical cancer and a simulation study. The latter illustrates the importance of carefully choosing an appropriate normality assumption for the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities, or the test prevalence and the predictive values. In practice, it is recommended to use model selection techniques to identify a best-fitting model for making statistical inference. In summary, the proposed trivariate random effects models are novel and can be very useful in practice for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the ASVAB (Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery) 8/ 9/10 Clerical Composite for Predicting Training School Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

specific predictor such as clerical speed or psychomotor skill , since the AR test would probably predict success equally well in many different areas...to specific occupational skills . Ř? When the aptitude area system was reconstituted in 1958, each composite contained only two tests, one measuring... literacy into each composite was that the composites were highly intercorrelated. The same aptitude composites developed for ACB-73 were also used

13C-methacetin-breath test compared to also noninvasive biochemical blood tests in predicting hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Dinesen, L; Caspary, W F; Chapman, R W; Dietrich, C F; Sarrazin, C; Braden, B

2008-09-01

The (13)C-methacetin-breath test and also several noninvasive blood tests comprising routine laboratory parameters have been proposed to predict fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C. The aim of the study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy between these tests referring to hepatic histology as gold standard. 96 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection underwent percutaneous liver biopsy and the (13)C-methacetin-breath test. The Fibroindex, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index , and the aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio were used as parameters for the staging of fibrosis. The main endpoint was the area under the characteristic curves for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) and cirrhosis (F4) according to the Batts Ludwig criteria. ROC analysis revealed a cut-off <14.6 per thousand best with 92.6% sensitivity and 84.1% specificity for the (13)C-methacetin-breath test, for the Fibroindex >1.82 70.4% sensitivity and 91.3% specificity, for the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio >1.0 a 66.7% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity, and for the aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio >1.0 63.0% sensitivity and 59.4% specificity in predicting liver cirrhosis. The areas under the curve for the breath test, the Fibroindex, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio and the aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio were 0.958, 0.845, 0.799, and 0.688, respectively, when predicting cirrhosis. For identifying patients with advanced fibrosis, the areas under the curve were 0.827, 0.804, 0.779, and 0.561, respectively. Discordances between Fibroindex (21%), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (29%) or aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (37.6%) and liver biopsy were significantly more frequent than between (13)C-breath test (11.6%) and liver biopsy (P<0.05). The (13)C-methacetin-breath test is more reliable in predicting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis than simple biochemical parameters (aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio; aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio).

RFI simulation definition study, exhibit D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, W. R.

1981-01-01

Comparative analyses of experimental and predicted effects of the radio frequency interference (RFI) environment on the Shuttle/TDRSS S-band links were performed. Specifications are defined ad ESTL test requirements are presented. Procedures for using the RFI test generator in the ESTL S-band link tests are presented and performance predictions for these links in the RFI environment are provided.

CON4EI: CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy - EpiOcular™ time-to-toxicity (EpiOcular ET-50) protocols for hazard identification and labelling of eye irritating chemicals.

PubMed

Kandarova, Helena; Letasiova, Silvia; Adriaens, Els; Guest, Robert; Willoughby, Jamin A; Drzewiecka, Agnieszka; Gruszka, Katarzyna; Alépée, Nathalie; Verstraelen, Sandra; Van Rompay, An R

2018-06-01

Assessment of acute eye irritation potential is part of the international regulatory requirements for testing of chemicals. The objective of the CON4EI (CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy) project was to develop tiered testing strategies for eye irritation assessment for all drivers of classification. A set of 80 reference chemicals (38 liquids and 42 solids) was tested with eight different alternative methods. Here, the results obtained with reconstructed human cornea-like epithelium (RhCE) EpiOcular™ in the EpiOcular time-to-toxicity Tests (Neat and Dilution ET-50 protocols) are presented. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether test methods can discriminate chemicals not requiring classification for serious eye damage/eye irritancy (No Category) from chemicals requiring classification and labelling for Category 1 and Category 2. In addition, the predictive capacity in terms of in vivo drivers of classification was investigated. The chemicals were tested in two independent runs by MatTek In Vitro Life Science Laboratories. Results of this study demonstrate very high specificity of both test protocols. With the existing prediction models described in the SOPs, the specificity of the Neat and Dilution method was 87% and 100%, respectively. The Dilution method was able to correctly predicting 66% of GHS Cat 2 chemicals, however, prediction of GHS Cat 1 chemicals was only 47%-55% using the current protocols. In order to achieve optimal prediction for all three classes, a testing strategy was developed which combines the most predictive time-points of both protocols and for tests liquids and solids separately. Using this new testing strategy, the sensitivity for predicting GHS Cat 1 and GHS Cat 2 chemicals was 73% and 64%, respectively and the very high specificity of 97% was maintained. None of the Cat 1 chemicals was underpredicted as GHS No Category. Further combination of the EpiOcular time-to-toxicity protocols with other validated in vitro systems evaluated in this project, should enable significant reduction and even possible replacement of the animal tests for the final assessment of the irritation potential in all of the GHS classes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of tuberculous lymphadenitis fine needle aspiration biopsy confirmed by PCR as gold standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DSuryadi; Delyuzar; Soekimin

2018-03-01

Indonesia is the second country with the TB (tuberculosis) burden in the world. Improvement in controlling TB and reducing the complications can accelerate early diagnosis and correct treatment. PCR test is a gold standard. However, it is quite expensive for routine diagnosis. Therefore, an accurate and cheaper diagnostic method such as fine needle aspiration biopsy is needed. The study aimsto determine the accuracy of fine needle aspiration biopsy cytology in the diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis. A cross-sectional analytic study was conducted to the samples from patients suspected with tuberculous lymphadenitis. The fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB)test was performed and confirmed by PCR test.There is a comparison to the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of both methods. Sensitivity (92.50%), specificity (96.49%), accuracy (94.85%), positive predictive value (94.87%) and negative predictive value (94.83%) were in FNAB test compared to gold standard. We concluded that fine needle aspiration biopsy is a recommendation for a cheaper and accurate diagnostic test for tuberculous lymphadenitis diagnosis.

An automated quantitative DNA image cytometry system detects abnormal cells in cervical cytology with high sensitivity.

PubMed

Wong, O G; Ho, M W; Tsun, O K; Ng, A K; Tsui, E Y; Chow, J N; Ip, P P; Cheung, A N

2018-03-26

To evaluate the performance of an automated DNA-image-cytometry system as a tool to detect cervical carcinoma. Of 384 liquid-based cervical cytology samples with available biopsy follow-up were analyzed by both the Imager System and a high-risk HPV test (Cobas). The sensitivity and specificity of Imager System for detecting biopsy proven high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]2-3) and carcinoma were 89.58% and 56.25%, respectively, compared to 97.22% and 23.33% of HPV test but additional HPV 16/18 genotyping increased the specificity to 69.58%. The sensitivity and specificity of the Imager System for predicting HSIL+ (CIN2-3+) lesions among atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance samples were 80.00% and 70.53%, respectively, compared to 100% and 11.58% of HPV test whilst the HPV 16/18 genotyping increased the specificity to 77.89%. Among atypical squamous cells-cannot exclude HSIL, the sensitivity and specificity of Imager System for predicting HSIL+ (CIN2-3+) lesions upon follow up were 82.86% and 33.33%%, respectively, compared to 97.14% and 4.76% of HPV test and the HPV 16/18 genotyping increased the specificity to 19.05%. Among low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cases, the sensitivity and specificity of the Imager System for predicting HSIL+ (CIN2-3+) lesions were 66.67% and 35.71%%, respectively, compared to 66.67% and 29.76% of HPV test while HPV 16/18 genotyping increased the specificity to 79.76%. The overall results of imager and high-risk HPV test agreed in 69.43% (268) of all samples. The automated imager system and HPV 16/18 genotyping can enhance the specificity of detecting HSIL+ (CIN2-3+) lesions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

PubMed

Oh, Minsik; Rhee, Sungmin; Moon, Ji Hwan; Chae, Heejoon; Lee, Sunwon; Kang, Jaewoo; Kim, Sun

2017-01-01

miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods. In summary, Context-MMIA allows the user to specify a context of the experimental data to predict miRNA targets, and we believe that Context-MMIA is very useful for predicting condition-specific miRNA targets.

Validity of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis to Estimation Fat-Free Mass in the Army Cadets.

PubMed

Langer, Raquel D; Borges, Juliano H; Pascoa, Mauro A; Cirolini, Vagner X; Guerra-Júnior, Gil; Gonçalves, Ezequiel M

2016-03-11

Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) is a fast, practical, non-invasive, and frequently used method for fat-free mass (FFM) estimation. The aims of this study were to validate predictive equations of BIA to FFM estimation in Army cadets and to develop and validate a specific BIA equation for this population. A total of 396 males, Brazilian Army cadets, aged 17-24 years were included. The study used eight published predictive BIA equations, a specific equation in FFM estimation, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Student's t-test (for paired sample), linear regression analysis, and Bland-Altman method were used to test the validity of the BIA equations. Predictive BIA equations showed significant differences in FFM compared to DXA (p < 0.05) and large limits of agreement by Bland-Altman. Predictive BIA equations explained 68% to 88% of FFM variance. Specific BIA equations showed no significant differences in FFM, compared to DXA values. Published BIA predictive equations showed poor accuracy in this sample. The specific BIA equations, developed in this study, demonstrated validity for this sample, although should be used with caution in samples with a large range of FFM.

Utility of urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting mortality with and without HIV: prospective TB cohort from the Thailand Big City TB Research Network.

PubMed

Suwanpimolkul, Gompol; Kawkitinarong, Kamon; Manosuthi, Weerawat; Sophonphan, Jiratchaya; Gatechompol, Sivaporn; Ohata, Pirapon June; Ubolyam, Sasiwimol; Iampornsin, Thatri; Katerattanakul, Pairaj; Avihingsanon, Anchalee; Ruxrungtham, Kiat

2017-06-01

To evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) test in tuberculosis (TB)/HIV co-infected patients and HIV-negative patients with disseminated TB. Frozen urine samples obtained at baseline from patients in the TB research cohort with proven culture-positive TB were selected for blinded urine LAM testing. One hundred and nine patients were categorized into four groups: (1) HIV-positive patients with TB; (2) HIV-negative patients with disseminated TB; (3) HIV-negative immunocompromised patients with TB; and (4) patients with diseases other than TB. The sensitivity of urine LAM testing for culture-positive TB, specificity of urine LAM testing for patients without TB, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed. The sensitivity of the urine LAM test in group 1 patients with a CD4 T-cell count of >100, ≤100, and ≤50 cells/mm 3 was 38.5%, 40.6%, and 45%, respectively. The specificity and PPV of the urine LAM test were >80%. The sensitivity of the test was 20% in group 2 and 12.5% in group 3, and the specificity and PPV were 100% for both groups. A positive urine LAM test result was significantly associated with death. This promising diagnostic tool could increase the yield of TB diagnosis and may predict the mortality rate of TB infection, particularly in TB/HIV co-infected patients. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Prediction of fracture load and stiffness of the proximal femur by CT-based specimen specific finite element analysis: cadaveric validation study.

PubMed

Miura, Michiaki; Nakamura, Junichi; Matsuura, Yusuke; Wako, Yasushi; Suzuki, Takane; Hagiwara, Shigeo; Orita, Sumihisa; Inage, Kazuhide; Kawarai, Yuya; Sugano, Masahiko; Nawata, Kento; Ohtori, Seiji

2017-12-16

Finite element analysis (FEA) of the proximal femur has been previously validated with large mesh size, but these were insufficient to simulate the model with small implants in recent studies. This study aimed to validate the proximal femoral computed tomography (CT)-based specimen-specific FEA model with smaller mesh size using fresh frozen cadavers. Twenty proximal femora from 10 cadavers (mean age, 87.1 years) were examined. CT was performed on all specimens with a calibration phantom. Nonlinear FEA prediction with stance configuration was performed using Mechanical Finder (mesh,1.5 mm tetrahedral elements; shell thickness, 0.2 mm; Poisson's coefficient, 0.3), in comparison with mechanical testing. Force was applied at a fixed vertical displacement rate, and the magnitude of the applied load and displacement were continuously recorded. The fracture load and stiffness were calculated from force-displacement curve, and the correlation between mechanical testing and FEA prediction was examined. A pilot study with one femur revealed that the equations proposed by Keller for vertebra were the most reproducible for calculating Young's modulus and the yield stress of elements of the proximal femur. There was a good linear correlation between fracture loads of mechanical testing and FEA prediction (R 2 = 0.6187) and between the stiffness of mechanical testing and FEA prediction (R 2 = 0.5499). There was a good linear correlation between fracture load and stiffness (R 2 = 0.6345) in mechanical testing and an excellent correlation between these (R 2 = 0.9240) in FEA prediction. CT-based specimen-specific FEA model of the proximal femur with small element size was validated using fresh frozen cadavers. The equations proposed by Keller for vertebra were found to be the most reproducible for the proximal femur in elderly people.

Use of the Abbott Architect HIV antigen/antibody assay in a low incidence population.

PubMed

Dubravac, Terry; Gahan, Thomas F; Pentella, Michael A

2013-12-01

With the availability of 4th generation HIV diagnostic tests which are capable of detecting acute infection, Iowa evaluated the 3rd and 4th generation HIV test and compared the performance of these products in a low incidence population. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of an HIV antigen/antibody combination (4th generation) assay compared to an EIA 3rd generation assay. Over a 4 month period, 2037 specimens submitted for HIV screening were tested by Bio-Rad GS HIV-1/HIV-2 Plus O EIA and the Abbott Architect i1000SR HIV Ag/Ab Combo. The performance characteristics of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were determined. Of the 2037 specimens tested, there were 13 (0.64%) true positives detected. None of the positive specimens were from patients in the acute phase of infection. The Abbott antigen/antibody combo assay had a sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value and negative predictive value of 100%, 99.85%, 81.25%, and 100% respectively. The Bio-Rad EIA assay had a sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value and negative predictive value of 100%, 99.80%, 76.47% and 100%, respectively. The EIA had four false positive results which tested negative by the antigen/antibody assay and western blot. In a low-incidence state where early infections are less commonly encountered, the EIA assay and the antigen/antibody assay performed with near equivalency. The antigen/antibody assay had one less false positive result. While no patients were detected in the acute stage of infection, the use of the antigen/antibody assay presents the opportunity to detect an infected patient sooner and prevent transmission to others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interleukin (IL)-1A and IL-6: Applications to the predictive diagnostic testing of radiation pneumonitis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen Yuhchyau; Hyrien, Ollivier; Williams, Jacqueline

2005-05-01

Purpose: To explore the application of interleukin (IL)-1{alpha} and IL-6 measurements in the predictive diagnostic testing for symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP). Methods and materials: In a prospective protocol investigating RP and cytokines, IL-1{alpha} and IL-6 values were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from serial weekly blood samples of patients receiving chest radiation. We analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) over selected threshold values for both cytokines in the application to diagnostic testing. Results: The average coefficient of variation was 51% of the weekly mean IL-1{alpha} level and 39% of the weekly mean IL-6 value.more » Interleukin 1{alpha} and IL-6 became positively correlated with time. Specificity for both cytokines was better than sensitivity. IL-6 globally outperformed IL-1{alpha} in predicting RP, with higher PPV and NPV. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate the feasibility of applying IL-1{alpha} and IL-6 measurements of blood specimens to predict RP. Interleukin-6 measurements offer stronger positive predictive value than IL-1{alpha}. This application might be further explored in a larger sample of patients.« less

Sensitivity and Specificity of Histoplasma Antigen Detection by Enzyme Immunoassay.

PubMed

Cunningham, Lauren; Cook, Audrey; Hanzlicek, Andrew; Harkin, Kenneth; Wheat, Joseph; Goad, Carla; Kirsch, Emily

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of an antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on urine samples for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs. This retrospective medical records review included canine cases with urine samples submitted for Histoplasma EIA antigen assay between 2007 and 2011 from three veterinary institutions. Cases for which urine samples were submitted for Histoplasma antigen testing were reviewed and compared to the gold standard of finding Histoplasma organisms or an alternative diagnosis on cytology or histopathology. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and the kappa coefficient and associated confidence interval were calculated for the EIA-based Histoplasma antigen assay. Sixty cases met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen cases were considered true positives based on identification of the organism, and 41 cases were considered true negatives with an alternative definitive diagnosis. Two cases were considered false negatives, and there were no false positives. Sensitivity was 89.47% and the negative predictive value was 95.35%. Specificity and the positive predictive value were both 100%. The kappa coefficient was 0.9207 (95% confidence interval, 0.8131-1). The Histoplasma antigen EIA test demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs.

Action perception as hypothesis testing.

PubMed

Donnarumma, Francesco; Costantini, Marcello; Ambrosini, Ettore; Friston, Karl; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2017-04-01

We present a novel computational model that describes action perception as an active inferential process that combines motor prediction (the reuse of our own motor system to predict perceived movements) and hypothesis testing (the use of eye movements to disambiguate amongst hypotheses). The system uses a generative model of how (arm and hand) actions are performed to generate hypothesis-specific visual predictions, and directs saccades to the most informative places of the visual scene to test these predictions - and underlying hypotheses. We test the model using eye movement data from a human action observation study. In both the human study and our model, saccades are proactive whenever context affords accurate action prediction; but uncertainty induces a more reactive gaze strategy, via tracking the observed movements. Our model offers a novel perspective on action observation that highlights its active nature based on prediction dynamics and hypothesis testing. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Expectancy Theory Predictions and Behaviorally Anchored Scales of Motivation: An Empirical Test of Engineers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ivancevich, John M.

1976-01-01

A behaviorally specific motivational effort rating scale was developed and tested. The organizational specific scale results were examined and compared to those generated from the Landy and Guion scale. It was found that the organizationally specific and engineer relevant scale is a better predictor of two types of expectancies. (Author)

Asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women attending Boo-Ali Hospital Tehran Iran: Urine analysis vs. urine culture

PubMed Central

Etminan-Bakhsh, Mina; Tadi, Sima; Darabi, Roksana

2017-01-01

Background Asymptomatic bacteriuria is one of the common problems in pregnancy. Asymptomatic bacteriuria is associated with pyelonephritis, preterm labor and low birth weight infants. The physiological and anatomical changes in pregnancy facilitate urinary tract infection (UTI) during pregnancy. Several tests are available for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. The urine culture is a gold standard diagnostic test for asymptomatic bacteriuria but it is expensive and time-consuming. Screening methods may be useful in detecting high-risk pregnant women for asymptomatic bacteriuria. Objective The aim of the present study was to compare urine analysis as a rapid screening test to urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Methods A total of 123 pregnant women attending the obstetrics clinic of Boo-Ali hospital in Tehran, Iran from March 2013 to September 2014 were included in the present diagnostic cross-sectional study. One hundred twenty three mid-stream urine samples were inoculated into cultures and were processed by dipstick (nitrite test and leucocyte esterase test) and microscopic pus cell count. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of nitrite test, leucocyte esterase test and microscopic pus cell count were compared with urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria by using SPSS version 19. Results Of 123 urine samples, significant asymptomatic bacteriuria (≥104 cfu/Ml) was detected in 8 (6.5%) subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of nitrite test were 37% and 100% respectively. The sensitivity of pus cell count alone and leucocyte esterase test alone were 100% but the specificity of them were 64% and 65% respectively. We found high negative predictive value by Pus cell count and the leucocyte esterase test (100%) and low positive predictive value by them (16% and 17% respectively). Conclusion Urine culture is the most useful test for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None of our screening tests had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, whereas we can only refer the pregnant women with positive leucocyte esterase test and significant pyuria to the urine culture. PMID:29403616

A Novel Approach to Prediction of Mild Obstructive Sleep Disordered Breathing in a Population-Based Sample: The Sleep Heart Health Study

PubMed Central

Caffo, Brian; Diener-West, Marie; Punjabi, Naresh M.; Samet, Jonathan

2010-01-01

This manuscript considers a data-mining approach for the prediction of mild obstructive sleep disordered breathing, defined as an elevated respiratory disturbance index (RDI), in 5,530 participants in a community-based study, the Sleep Heart Health Study. The prediction algorithm was built using modern ensemble learning algorithms, boosting in specific, which allowed for assessing potential high-dimensional interactions between predictor variables or classifiers. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the data were split into training and validation sets for varying thresholds for predicting the probability of a high RDI (≥ 7 events per hour in the given results). Based on a moderate classification threshold from the boosting algorithm, the estimated post-test odds of a high RDI were 2.20 times higher than the pre-test odds given a positive test, while the corresponding post-test odds were decreased by 52% given a negative test (sensitivity and specificity of 0.66 and 0.70, respectively). In rank order, the following variables had the largest impact on prediction performance: neck circumference, body mass index, age, snoring frequency, waist circumference, and snoring loudness. Citation: Caffo B; Diener-West M; Punjabi NM; Samet J. A novel approach to prediction of mild obstructive sleep disordered breathing in a population-based sample: the Sleep Heart Health Study. SLEEP 2010;33(12):1641-1648. PMID:21120126

Triple Test in Carcinoma Breast

PubMed Central

Sameer; Mukherjee, Arindam

2014-01-01

Introduction: The commonest clinical presentation in majority of breast pathology is a lump. A definite diagnosis of breast lump is very important for the surgeon to decide on the final course of treatment and also saves the patient from unnecessary physical, emotional and psychological trauma if there is a definite preoperative diagnosis of benign lesion. The present study was done to evaluate the effectiveness and relevance of “TRIPLE TEST”in diagnosis of carcinoma breast in rural labour class population. Materials and Methods: The present study was a prospective study conducted on patients over 35 years of age having palpable breast lumps presenting in the out patient department of general surgery, ESI Hospital Basaidarapur New Delhi, India. The duration of study was from May 2007 to June 2009 and a total of 100 cases were studied. Each patient was subjected to a detailed history, clinical breast examination ,diagnostic mammography and FNAC. In this study, the results of each modality was divided in three groups: benign, suspicious and malignant. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of each test was calculated individually and as combined. Result: Out of 100 patients enrolled in this study, 60 cases were benign and 40 cases were of malignant breast disease. The age of patients with carcinoma breast in the series varied from 35 years to 70 years. The highest incidence of malignancy noted was 30% in 41-50 years age group (4th decade) followed by 27.5% in 51-60 years age group (5th decade). The sensitivity of clinical examination was found to be 75%, specificity was 83.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75% and diagnostic accuracy of 80%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of mammography was calculated and was found to be 94.9% , 90% , 86% and 92% respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of FNAC was 94.7%, 98.3%, 97.3% and 96.6% respectively. Out of 100 cases triple test was concordant (all three test either benign or malignant) in 80 cases, all the benign cases detected by triple test were benign on final biopsy i.e. 100% specificity and 100% negative predictive value. Conclusion: TTS is an accurate and least invasive diagnostic test based on which definitive treatment can be initiated. PMID:25478391

Tongue Blade Bite Test Predicts Mandible Fractures

PubMed Central

Neiner, John; Free, Rachael; Caldito, Gloria; Moore-Medlin, Tara; Nathan, Cherie-Ann

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to evaluate the utility of a simple tongue blade bite test in predicting mandible fractures and use this test as an alternative screening tool for further workup. This is a retrospective chart review. An institutional review board approved the retrospective review of patients evaluated by the Department of Otolaryngology at a single institution for facial trauma performed from November 1, 2011, to February 27, 2014. Patients who had a bite test documented were included in the study. CT was performed in all cases and was used as the gold standard to diagnose mandible fractures. Variables analyzed included age, sex, fracture type/location on CT, bite test positivity, and operative intervention. A total of 86 patients met the inclusion criteria and of those 12 were pediatric patients. Majority of the patients were male (80.2%) and adult (86.0%; average age: 34.3 years). Fifty-seven patients had a negative bite test and on CT scans had no mandible fracture. Twenty-three patients had a positive bite test and a CT scan confirmed fracture. The bite test revealed a sensitivity of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), specificity of 95.0% (95% CI:86.1–99%), positive predictive value [PPV] of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), and negative predictive value [NPV] of 95.0% (95% CI: 86.1–99.0%). Among pediatric patients, the sensitivity was 100% (95% CI: 29.9–100%), specificity was 88.9% (95% CI: 68.4–100%), PPV was 75.0% (95% CI: 19.4–99.4%), and NPV was 100% (95% CI: 63.1–100%). The tongue blade bite test is a quick inexpensive diagnostic tool for the otolaryngologist with high sensitivity and specificity for predicting mandible fractures. In the pediatric population, where avoidance of unnecessary CT scans is of highest priority, a wider range of data collection should be undertaken to better assess its utility. PMID:27162567

Allergy tests do not predict food triggers in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. A comprehensive prospective study using five modalities.

PubMed

Philpott, H; Nandurkar, S; Royce, S G; Thien, F; Gibson, P R

2016-08-01

The use of allergy tests to guide dietary treatment for eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) is controversial and data are limited. Aeroallergen sensitisation patterns and food triggers have been defined in Northern Hemisphere cohorts only. To determine if allergy tests that are routinely available can predict food triggers in adult patients with EoE. To define the food triggers and aeroallergen sensitisation patterns in a novel Southern Hemisphere (Australian) cohort of patients. Consecutive patients with EoE who elected to undergo dietary therapy were prospectively assessed, demographic details and atopic characteristics recorded, and allergy tests, comprising skin-prick and skin-patch tests, serum allergen-specific IgE, basophil activation test and serum food-specific IgG, were performed. Patients underwent a six-food elimination diet with a structured algorithm that included endoscopic and histological examination of the oesophagus a minimum of 2 weeks after each challenge. Response was defined as <15 eosinophils per HPF. Foods defined as triggers were considered as gold standard and were compared with those identified by allergy testing. No allergy test could accurately predict actual food triggers. Concordance among skin-prick and serum allergen-specific IgE was high for aeroallergens only. Among seasonal aeroallergens, rye-grass sensitisation was predominant. Food triggers were commonly wheat, milk and egg, alone or in combination. None of the currently-available allergy tests predicts food triggers for EoE. Exclusion-rechallenge methodology with oesophageal histological assessment remains the only effective investigation. The same food triggers were identified in this southern hemisphere cohort as previously described. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exercise testing after beta-blockade: improved specificity and predictive value in detecting coronary heart disease.

PubMed Central

Marcomichelakis, J; Donaldson, R; Green, J; Joseph, S; Kelly, H B; Taggart, P; Somerville, W

1980-01-01

The value of exercise testing in detecting myocardial ischaemia resulting from coronary atheroma remains controversial. In order to increase the reliability of exercise testing, all its components (asymptomatic, haemodynamic, and electrocardiographic) have been scrutinised. In this study, concerned only with the electrocardiographic response to exercise, the incorporation of beta-blockade into the standard exercise procedure has improved specificity and predictive value without affecting sensitivity. Fifty patients with anginal pain and 50 asymptomatic subjects with an abnormal electrocardiogram were investigated by exercise testing before and after beta-blockade (oxprenolol). All subjects had coronary arteriograms and left ventriculograms, and the results of exercise testing were related to the presence or absence of obstructive coronary artery disease. Possible causes of false positive exercise tests were eliminated by echocardiography. Though beta-blockade was unreliable in distinguishing ischaemic from non-ischaemic resting electrocardiograms, it eliminated all the false positive electrocardiographic responses to exercise in both groups and did not abolish any of the true positive electrocardiographic responses. Thus, specificity and predictive value were improved without reduction in sensitivity. This technique may not necessarily be applicable to other groups of patients or to a random population, but the results of this study suggest it will be a useful additional routine procedure in the investigation of coronary heart disease. PMID:7437172

Defining thresholds of specific IgE levels to grass pollen and birch pollen allergens improves clinical interpretation.

PubMed

Van Hoeyveld, Erna; Nickmans, Silvie; Ceuppens, Jan L; Bossuyt, Xavier

2015-10-23

Cut-off values and predictive values are used for the clinical interpretation of specific IgE antibody results. However, cut-off levels are not well defined, and predictive values are dependent on the prevalence of disease. The objective of this study was to document clinically relevant diagnostic accuracy of specific IgE for inhalant allergens (grass pollen and birch pollen) based on test result interval-specific likelihood ratios. Likelihood ratios are independent of the prevalence and allow to provide diagnostic accuracy information for test result intervals. In a prospective study we included consecutive adult patients presenting at an allergy clinic with complaints of rhinitis or rhinoconjunctivitis. The standard for diagnosis was a suggestive clinical history of grass or birch pollen allergy and a positive skin test. Specific IgE was determined with the ImmunoCAP Fluorescence Enzyme Immuno-Assay. We established specific IgE test result interval related likelihood ratios for clinical allergy to inhalant allergens (grass pollen, rPhl p 1,5, birch pollen, rBet v 1). The likelihood ratios for allergy increased with increasing specific IgE antibody levels. The likelihood ratio was <0.03 for specific IgE <0.1 kU/L, between 0.1 and 1.4 for specific IgE between 0.1 kU/L and 0.35 kU/L, between 1.4 and 4.2 for specific IgE between 0.35 kU/L and 3.5 kU/L, >6.3 for specific IgE>0.7, and very high (∞) for specific IgE >3.5 kU/L. Test result interval specific likelihood ratios provide a useful tool for the interpretation of specific IgE test results for inhalant allergens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Jackson, D D

1996-04-30

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Jackson, D D

1996-01-01

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions. PMID:11607663

Latex agglutination using the periplasmic proteins antigen of Brucella melitensis is a successful, rapid, and specific serodiagnostic test for ovine brucellosis

PubMed Central

Ismael, Alaa Bassuny; Swelum, Ayman Abdel-Aziz; Mostafa, Salama A-H; Alhumiany, Abdel-Rahman A

2016-01-01

Brucellosis, especially caused by Brucella melitensis, is considered the most-widespread zoonosis in the world, particularly in developing countries. This study was planned to develop an accurate test for diagnosis of ovine brucellosis using a specific hot saline extracted soluble Brucella melitensis periplasmic proteins (SBPPs). The efficacy of the latex agglutination test (LAT) using SBPPs compared to the Rose Bengal test (RBT), buffered plate agglutination test (BPAT), serum agglutination test (SAT), and an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (i-ELISA) was evaluated in the field diagnosis of ovine brucellosis. The test performance was evaluated by estimating sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), disease prevalence (DP), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) using test agreement and bacteriological culture in 1777 samples. The false-positive result was significantly (P ⩽0.05) lower in LAT than RBT, BPAT, SAT, and i-ELISA. With reference to test agreement, the Se, Sp, PPV, and PLR were highest (P ⩽0.05) in LAT 99.33%, 99.88%, 98.68%, and 827.25%, respectively. With reference to bacteriological culture, the LAT and i-ELISA tests showed a significant difference in Se with SAT. However, no significant difference in specificity was detected. The DP was 8.44% in the five tests. In conclusion, LAT using SBPPs of B. melitensis could be a suitable serodiagnostic field test for ovine brucellosis, with high sensitivity and specificity. PMID:27207442

Latex agglutination using the periplasmic proteins antigen of Brucella melitensis is a successful, rapid, and specific serodiagnostic test for ovine brucellosis.

PubMed

Ismael, Alaa Bassuny; Swelum, Ayman Abdel-Aziz; Mostafa, Salama A-H; Alhumiany, Abdel-Rahman A

2016-09-01

Brucellosis, especially caused by Brucella melitensis, is considered the most-widespread zoonosis in the world, particularly in developing countries. This study was planned to develop an accurate test for diagnosis of ovine brucellosis using a specific hot saline extracted soluble Brucella melitensis periplasmic proteins (SBPPs). The efficacy of the latex agglutination test (LAT) using SBPPs compared to the Rose Bengal test (RBT), buffered plate agglutination test (BPAT), serum agglutination test (SAT), and an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (i-ELISA) was evaluated in the field diagnosis of ovine brucellosis. The test performance was evaluated by estimating sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), disease prevalence (DP), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) using test agreement and bacteriological culture in 1777 samples. The false-positive result was significantly (P ⩽0.05) lower in LAT than RBT, BPAT, SAT, and i-ELISA. With reference to test agreement, the Se, Sp, PPV, and PLR were highest (P ⩽0.05) in LAT 99.33%, 99.88%, 98.68%, and 827.25%, respectively. With reference to bacteriological culture, the LAT and i-ELISA tests showed a significant difference in Se with SAT. However, no significant difference in specificity was detected. The DP was 8.44% in the five tests. In conclusion, LAT using SBPPs of B. melitensis could be a suitable serodiagnostic field test for ovine brucellosis, with high sensitivity and specificity. © The Author(s) 2016.

Relationships and Predictive Capabilities of Jump Assessments to Soccer-Specific Field Test Performance in Division I Collegiate Players.

PubMed

Lockie, Robert G; Stage, Alyssa A; Stokes, John J; Orjalo, Ashley J; Davis, DeShaun L; Giuliano, Dominic V; Moreno, Matthew R; Risso, Fabrice G; Lazar, Adrina; Birmingham-Babauta, Samantha A; Tomita, Tricia M

2016-12-03

Leg power is an important characteristic for soccer, and jump tests can measure this capacity. Limited research has analyzed relationships between jumping and soccer-specific field test performance in collegiate male players. Nineteen Division I players completed tests of: leg power (vertical jump (VJ), standing broad jump (SBJ), left- and right-leg triple hop (TH)); linear (30 m sprint; 0⁻5 m, 5⁻10 m, 0⁻10, 0⁻30 m intervals) and change-of-direction (505) speed; soccer-specific fitness (Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 2); and 7 × 30-m sprints to measure repeated-sprint ability (RSA; total time (TT), performance decrement (PD)). Pearson's correlations ( r ) determined jump and field test relationships; stepwise regression ascertained jump predictors of the tests ( p < 0.05). All jumps correlated with the 0⁻5, 0⁻10, and 0⁻30 m sprint intervals ( r = -0.65⁻-0.90). VJ, SBJ, and left- and right-leg TH correlated with RSA TT ( r = -0.51⁻-0.59). Right-leg TH predicted the 0⁻5 and 0⁻10 m intervals (R² = 0.55⁻0.81); the VJ predicted the 0⁻30 m interval and RSA TT (R² = 0.41⁻0.84). Between-leg TH asymmetry correlated with and predicted left-leg 505 and RSA PD ( r = -0.68⁻0.62; R² = 0.39⁻0.46). Improvements in jumping ability could contribute to faster speed and RSA performance in collegiate soccer players.

Laboratory tests for diagnosis of food allergy: advantages, disadvantages and future perspectives.

PubMed

Moneret-Vautrin, D A; Kanny, G; Frémont, S

2003-04-01

Numerous biological tests point to the diagnosis of food sensitization: detection of specific IgEs by Rast techniques, multi-detection assays, immunoblotting, screening of basophil activation (BAT or FAST), assays for leukotriene LTC4 release (CAST), measurement of plasma histamine, serum tryptase, serum ECP, urinary EDN, completed by mannitol-lactulose test evaluating intestinal permeability, assay of fecal IgEs, Rast for specific IgG4. Primary screening for anti-food IgEs by multi-detection assays seeks justification from insufficient clinical data and false positive tests are common in patients sensitized to pollens or latex, on account of in vitro cross reactivities (CR). Multiple CR explain positive Rast to vegetal food allergens in such patients. Biological tests should not be performed as the first line of diagnosis. In vivo sensitisation is assessed by positive prick-tests, demonstrating the bivalence of allergens, as well as the affinity of specific IgEs, two conditions necessary to bridge membrane bound specific IgEs, leading to the release of mediators. Prick-tests are closer to clinical symptoms than biological tests. However, the diagnosis of food allergy is based on standardised oral challenges. Exceptions are high levels of specific IgEs to egg (> 6 kUl/l), peanut (> 15 kUl/l), fish (> 20 kUl/l) and milk (> 32 kUl/l), reaching a 95% predictive positive value. Rast inhibition tests are useful to identify masked allergens in foods. Research developments will have impact on the development of new diagnostic tools: allergen mixes reinforcing a food extract by associated recombinant major allergens, multiple combination of recombinant allergens (chips) or tests with synthetic epitopes aimed a the prediction of recovery. Laboratory tests take place in the decision free for the diagnosis for the food allergy and the follow-up of the levels specific IgEs is a tool to assess outcome and contributes to predict recovery or persistent allergy. Up to now the significance of positive laboratory tests showing the implication of IgEs is at the crossroads of the allergist's and biologist's expertise.

Growth trajectories and intellectual abilities in young adulthood: The Helsinki Birth Cohort study.

PubMed

Räikkönen, Katri; Forsén, Tom; Henriksson, Markus; Kajantie, Eero; Heinonen, Kati; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Leskinen, Jukka T; Laaksonen, Ilmo; Osmond, Clive; Barker, David J P; Eriksson, Johan G

2009-08-15

Slow childhood growth is associated with poorer intellectual ability. The critical periods of growth remain uncertain. Among 2,786 Finnish male military conscripts (1952-1972) born in 1934-1944, the authors tested how specific growth periods from birth to age 20 years predicted verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities at age 20. Small head circumference at birth predicted poorer verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities. The latter 2 measures were also associated with lower weight and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) at birth (for a 1-standard-deviation (SD) decrease in test score per SD decrease in body size > or = 0.05, P's < 0.04). Slow linear growth and weight gain between birth and age 6 months, between ages 6 months and 2 years, or both predicted poorer performance on all 3 tests (for a 1-SD decrease in test score per SD decrease in growth > or = 0.05, P's < 0.03). Reduced linear growth between ages 2 and 7 years predicted worse verbal ability, and between age 11 years and conscription it predicted worse performance on all 3 tests. Prenatal brain growth and linear growth up to 2 years after birth form a first critical period for intellectual development. There is a second critical period, specific for verbal development, between ages 2 and 7 years and a third critical period for all 3 tested outcomes during adolescence.

Sex-Specific Differential Prediction of College Admission Tests: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Franziska T.; Schult, Johannes; Hell, Benedikt

2013-01-01

This is the first meta-analysis that investigates the differential prediction of undergraduate and graduate college admission tests for women and men. Findings on 130 independent samples representing 493,048 students are summarized. The underprediction of women's academic performance (d = 0.14) and the overprediction of men's academic performance…

Family Conflict Interacts with Genetic Liability in Predicting Childhood and Adolescent Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rice, Frances; Harold, Gordon T.; Shelton, Katherine H.; Thapar, Anita

2006-01-01

Objective: To test for gene-environment interaction with depressive symptoms and family conflict. Specifically, to first examine whether the influence of family conflict in predicting depressive symptoms is increased in individuals at genetic risk of depression. Second, to test whether the genetic component of variance in depressive symptoms…

Accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Martinez, Bruno Prata; Gomes, Isabela Barboza; Oliveira, Carolina Santana de; Ramos, Isis Resende; Rocha, Mônica Diniz Marques; Forgiarini Júnior, Luiz Alberto; Camelier, Fernanda Warken Rosa; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção

2015-05-01

The ability of the Timed Up and Go test to predict sarcopenia has not been evaluated previously. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. This cross-sectional study analyzed 68 elderly patients (≥60 years of age) in a private hospital in the city of Salvador-BA, Brazil, between the 1st and 5th day of hospitalization. The predictive variable was the Timed Up and Go test score, and the outcome of interest was the presence of sarcopenia (reduced muscle mass associated with a reduction in handgrip strength and/or weak physical performance in a 6-m gait-speed test). After the descriptive data analyses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of a test using the predictive variable to predict the presence of sarcopenia were calculated. In total, 68 elderly individuals, with a mean age 70.4±7.7 years, were evaluated. The subjects had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5.35±1.97. Most (64.7%) of the subjects had a clinical admission profile; the main reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular disorders (22.1%), pneumonia (19.1%) and abdominal disorders (10.2%). The frequency of sarcopenia in the sample was 22.1%, and the mean length of time spent performing the Timed Up and Go test was 10.02±5.38 s. A time longer than or equal to a cutoff of 10.85 s on the Timed Up and Go test predicted sarcopenia with a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 88.7%. The accuracy of this cutoff for the Timed Up and Go test was good (0.80; IC=0.66-0.94; p=0.002). The Timed Up and Go test was shown to be a predictor of sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

A new test of computational protein design: predicting posttranslational modification specificity for the enzyme SMYD2.

PubMed

Reynolds, Kimberly A

2015-01-06

In this issue of Structure, Lanouette and colleagues use a combination of computation and experiment to define a specificity motif for the lysine methyltransferase SMYD2. Using this motif, they predict and experimentally verify four new SMYD2 substrates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture.

PubMed

Marques, Alexandre Gimenes; Doi, André Mario; Pasternak, Jacyr; Damascena, Márcio Dos Santos; França, Carolina Nunes; Martino, Marinês Dalla Valle

2017-01-01

To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively). A negative urine culture can be predicted by negative dipstick test results. Therefore, this test may be a reliable predictor of negative urine culture. Verificar se a triagem de urina por fitas reativas é capaz de predizer a cultura de urina. Métodos Estudo retrospectivo realizado entre janeiro e dezembro de 2014 com 8.587 pacientes, com solicitação médica de triagem de urina (fita), sedimento urinário e cultura de urina. sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo positivo, valor preditivo negativo e curva ROC. Foram positivas 17,5% das culturas. O nitrito apresentou sensibilidade de 28% e especificidade de 99%. O valor preditivo positivo foi de 89% e o valor preditivo negativo de 87%. Esterase apresentou sensibilidade de 79% e especificidade de 84%. Valor preditivo positivo e valor preditivo negativo foram de 51% e 95%, respectivamente. A combinação de nitrito ou esterase positivos apresentou sensibilidade de 85% e especificidade de 84%. Valor preditivo positivo e valor preditivo negativo foram, respectivamente, 53% e 96%. O sedimento positivo (mais de dez leucócitos por microlitro) apresentou sensibilidade de 92% e especificidade de 71%. O valor preditivo positivo foi 40% e o negativo, 98%. A combinação de nitrito e sedimento urinário positivos apresentou sensibilidade de 82% e especificidade de 99%. Os valores preditivos positivo e negativo foram 91% e 98%, respectivamente. Para o nitrito ou esterase positivos mais os leucócitos positivos, a sensibilidade foi de 94% e a especificidade de 84%. O valor preditivo positivo foi de 58% e o negativo foi de 99%. Com base na curva ROC, o melhor indicador de urocultura positiva foi a associação entre a esterase ou nitrito positivos na fita mais os leucócitos positivos no sedimento, seguido por nitrito e esterase positivos, sedimento urinário positivo isolado, esterase positiva isolada, nitrito positivo isolado e, finalmente, pela associação entre nitrito e sedimento urinário positivos (AUC: 0,845, 0,844, 0,817, 0,814, 0,635 e 0,626, respectivamente). Uma urocultura negativa pode ser prevista com resultados negativos na fita. Portanto, este teste pode ser um preditor confiável de urocultura negativa.

Comparison of wheat and rye flour solutions for skin prick testing: a multi-centre study (Stad 1).

PubMed

van Kampen, V; Merget, R; Rabstein, S; Sander, I; Bruening, T; Broding, H C; Keller, C; Muesken, H; Overlack, A; Schultze-Werninghaus, G; Walusiak, J; Raulf-Heimsoth, M

2009-12-01

Skin prick testing (SPT) is the basic method for diagnosing IgE-mediated allergies. However, skin reactivity is related to the quality of allergen extracts, which are often poorly defined for occupational allergens. To compare wheat and rye flour SPT solutions from different producers. Standardized SPTs were performed in seven allergy centres with wheat and rye flour solutions from four producers in 125 symptomatic bakers. Optimal cut-off levels for weal sizes were assessed with the Youden Index. Comparisons between SPT results of different solutions were made with flour-specific IgE (sIgE) as the gold standard. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values, and test efficiencies were calculated and compared with McNemar and chi(2)-tests. The influence of the choice of the gold standard (sIgE or challenge) test was examined for 95 subjects. Additionally, SPT solutions were analysed for protein and antigen content. The optimal cut-off level for all SPT solutions was a weal size of >or=1.5 mm. While differences between wheat and rye flours were small, differences between producers were important. Variability of sensitivities (0.31-0.96), negative predictive values (0.42-0.91), and test efficiencies (0.54-0.90) were higher than variations of specificities (0.74-1.00) and positive predictive values (0.88-1.00). Similar results were obtained when using challenge test results as the gold standard. Variability could be explained by the different antigen contents of the SPT solutions. There is a wide variability of SPT solutions for wheat and rye flour from different producers, mainly with respect to sensitivities, negative predictive values, and test efficiencies. Improvement and standardization of SPT solutions used for the diagnosis of baker's asthma are highly recommended.

Sesame allergy: role of specific IgE and skin-prick testing in predicting food challenge results.

PubMed

Permaul, Perdita; Stutius, Lisa M; Sheehan, William J; Rangsithienchai, Pitud; Walter, Jolan E; Twarog, Frank J; Young, Michael C; Scott, Jordan E; Schneider, Lynda C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2009-01-01

There are conflicting data regarding the diagnostic value of sesame-specific IgE and sesame skin test. Currently, there are no established thresholds that predict clinical reactivity. We examined the correlation of sesame ImmunoCAP and skin-prick test (SPT) results with oral challenge outcomes in children suspected of having a sesame food allergy. We conducted a retrospective chart review of children, aged 2-12 years, receiving a sesame ImmunoCAP level, SPT, and food challenge from January 2004 to August 2008 at Children's Hospital Boston and affiliated allergy clinics. Food challenges were conducted in cases of questionable clinical history or a negative ImmunoCAP and/or negative SPT despite a convincing history. Thirty-three oral sesame challenges were conducted. Of the 33 challenges performed, 21% (n = 7) failed and 79% (n = 26) passed. A sesame-specific IgE level of > or = 7 kU(A)/L showed specificity of >90%. An SPT wheal size of > or = 6 mm showed specificity of >90%. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for sesame-specific IgE revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.56. ROC curve analysis for SPT wheal size revealed an AUC of 0.67. To our knowledge, this study represents the largest number of sesame challenges performed to evaluate the diagnostic value of both sesame-specific IgE and SPT. Based on our sample, both tests are not good predictors of true sesame allergy as determined by an oral challenge. We were unable to establish a threshold with a 95% positive predictive value for both sesame-specific IgE and SPT.

The meaning of diagnostic test results: a spreadsheet for swift data analysis.

PubMed

Maceneaney, P M; Malone, D E

2000-03-01

To design a spreadsheet program to: (a) analyse rapidly diagnostic test result data produced in local research or reported in the literature; (b) correct reported predictive values for disease prevalence in any population; (c) estimate the post-test probability of disease in individual patients. Microsoft Excel(TM)was used. Section A: a contingency (2 x 2) table was incorporated into the spreadsheet. Formulae for standard calculations [sample size, disease prevalence, sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LRs)] were linked to this table. The results change automatically when the data in the true or false negative and positive cells are changed. Section B: this estimates predictive values in any population, compensating for altered disease prevalence. Sections C-F: Bayes' theorem was incorporated to generate individual post-test probabilities. The spreadsheet generates 95% confidence intervals, LRs and a table and graph of conditional probabilities once the sensitivity and specificity of the test are entered. The latter shows the expected post-test probability of disease for any pre-test probability when a test of known sensitivity and specificity is positive or negative. This spreadsheet can be used on desktop and palmtop computers. The MS Excel(TM)version can be downloaded via the Internet from the URL ftp://radiography.com/pub/Rad-data99.xls A spreadsheet is useful for contingency table data analysis and assessment of the clinical meaning of diagnostic test results. Copyright 2000 The Royal College of Radiologists.

A comparison of cell-free placental messenger ribonucleic acid and color Doppler ultrasound for the prediction of placental invasion in patients with placenta accreta

PubMed Central

Naghshineh, Elham; Khorvash, Elahe; Kamali, Sara

2015-01-01

Background: The aim of the present study was to comparison between cell-free placental messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) and Doppler ultrasound for the prediction of placental invasion in women with placenta accreta. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 50 pregnant women at risk for placenta accreta underwent color Doppler and assessment of cell-free placental mRNA. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction was used for measurement of cell-free placental mRNA in maternal plasma. Based on the findings at cesarean delivery and histological examination, patients were divided into two groups of women with and without placenta accrete. To compare of the mean of mRNA levels between the two groups we used independent t-test and to compare of the mean of age and gestational age at sonography we used Mann-Whitney test. For determination of sensitivity and specificity and the cut-off point of mRNA levels we used the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: A total of 50 women with a mean age of 30.24 ± 4.905 years entered the study and 12 (24%) patients were diagnosed with placenta accreta. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of Doppler ultrasound were 83.3%, 78.9%, 56% and 94%, respectively. Results of our study showed if we consider a cut-off point equal to 3.325, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.917 and 0.789, respectively and the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of mRNA with were cut-off point of 3.325 were 91.7%, 78.9%, 57.9% and 96.8%, respectively. Conclusions: Cell-free mRNA is an acceptable, easy made, functional test with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV more than Doppler ultrasound for diagnosis and prediction of incidence of placenta accrete and we recommend the use of cell-free mRNA test for diagnosis of placenta accreta. PMID:25709996

A comparison of cell-free placental messenger ribonucleic acid and color Doppler ultrasound for the prediction of placental invasion in patients with placenta accreta.

PubMed

Naghshineh, Elham; Khorvash, Elahe; Kamali, Sara

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to comparison between cell-free placental messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) and Doppler ultrasound for the prediction of placental invasion in women with placenta accreta. In this cross-sectional study, 50 pregnant women at risk for placenta accreta underwent color Doppler and assessment of cell-free placental mRNA. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction was used for measurement of cell-free placental mRNA in maternal plasma. Based on the findings at cesarean delivery and histological examination, patients were divided into two groups of women with and without placenta accrete. To compare of the mean of mRNA levels between the two groups we used independent t-test and to compare of the mean of age and gestational age at sonography we used Mann-Whitney test. For determination of sensitivity and specificity and the cut-off point of mRNA levels we used the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 50 women with a mean age of 30.24 ± 4.905 years entered the study and 12 (24%) patients were diagnosed with placenta accreta. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of Doppler ultrasound were 83.3%, 78.9%, 56% and 94%, respectively. Results of our study showed if we consider a cut-off point equal to 3.325, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.917 and 0.789, respectively and the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of mRNA with were cut-off point of 3.325 were 91.7%, 78.9%, 57.9% and 96.8%, respectively. Cell-free mRNA is an acceptable, easy made, functional test with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV more than Doppler ultrasound for diagnosis and prediction of incidence of placenta accrete and we recommend the use of cell-free mRNA test for diagnosis of placenta accreta.

p53 predictive value for pT1-2 N0 disease at radical cystectomy.

PubMed

Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lotan, Yair; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Ashfaq, Raheela; Isbarn, Hendrik; Fradet, Yves; Bastian, Patrick J; Nielsen, Matthew E; Capitanio, Umberto; Jeldres, Claudio; Montorsi, Francesco; Müller, Stefan C; Karam, Jose A; Heukamp, Lukas C; Netto, George; Lerner, Seth P; Sagalowsky, Arthur I; Cote, Richard J

2009-09-01

Approximately 15% to 30% of patients with pT1-2N0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder experience disease progression despite radical cystectomy with curative intent. We determined whether p53 expression would improve the prediction of disease progression after radical cystectomy for pT1-2N0M0 UCB. In a multi-institutional retrospective cohort we identified 324 patients with pT1-2N0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder who underwent radical cystectomy. Analysis focused on a testing cohort of 272 patients and an external validation of 52. Competing risks regression models were used to test the association of variables with cancer specific mortality after accounting for nonbladder cancer caused mortality. In the testing cohort 91 patients (33.5%) had altered p53 expression (p53alt). On multivariate competing risks regression analysis altered p53 achieved independent status for predicting disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality (each p <0.001). Adding p53 increased the accuracy of multivariate competing risks regression models predicting recurrence and cancer specific mortality by 5.7% (62.0% vs 67.7%) and 5.4% (61.6% vs 67.0%), respectively. Alterations in p53 represent a highly promising marker of disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality after radical cystectomy for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. Analysis confirmed previous findings and showed that considering p53 can result in substantial accuracy gains relative to the use of standard predictors. The value and the level of the current evidence clearly exceed previous proof of the independent predictor status of p53 for predicting recurrence and cancer specific mortality.

Fan Noise Prediction with Applications to Aircraft System Noise Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nark, Douglas M.; Envia, Edmane; Burley, Casey L.

2009-01-01

This paper describes an assessment of current fan noise prediction tools by comparing measured and predicted sideline acoustic levels from a benchmark fan noise wind tunnel test. Specifically, an empirical method and newly developed coupled computational approach are utilized to predict aft fan noise for a benchmark test configuration. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to assess the relative merits of the two approaches. The study identifies issues entailed in coupling the source and propagation codes, as well as provides insight into the capabilities of the tools in predicting the fan noise source and subsequent propagation and radiation. In contrast to the empirical method, the new coupled computational approach provides the ability to investigate acoustic near-field effects. The potential benefits/costs of these new methods are also compared with the existing capabilities in a current aircraft noise system prediction tool. The knowledge gained in this work provides a basis for improved fan source specification in overall aircraft system noise studies.

ROC-ing along: Evaluation and interpretation of receiver operating characteristic curves.

PubMed

Carter, Jane V; Pan, Jianmin; Rai, Shesh N; Galandiuk, Susan

2016-06-01

It is vital for clinicians to understand and interpret correctly medical statistics as used in clinical studies. In this review, we address current issues and focus on delivering a simple, yet comprehensive, explanation of common research methodology involving receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. ROC curves are used most commonly in medicine as a means of evaluating diagnostic tests. Sample data from a plasma test for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer were used to generate a prediction model. These are actual, unpublished data that have been used to describe the calculation of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values, and accuracy. The ROC curves were generated to determine the accuracy of this plasma test. These curves are generated by plotting the sensitivity (true-positive rate) on the y axis and 1 - specificity (false-positive rate) on the x axis. Curves that approach closest to the coordinate (x = 0, y = 1) are more highly predictive, whereas ROC curves that lie close to the line of equality indicate that the result is no better than that obtained by chance. The optimum sensitivity and specificity can be determined from the graph as the point where the minimum distance line crosses the ROC curve. This point corresponds to the Youden index (J), a function of sensitivity and specificity used commonly to rate diagnostic tests. The area under the curve is used to quantify the overall ability of a test to discriminate between 2 outcomes. By following these simple guidelines, interpretation of ROC curves will be less difficult and they can then be interpreted more reliably when writing, reviewing, or analyzing scientific papers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study

PubMed Central

Chara, Liaskou; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Maria, Moirasgenti; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-01-01

Background and Aims: Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. Methods: We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack–Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack–Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Results: Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). Conclusions: The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC. PMID:24963183

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

PubMed

Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-03-01

Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

Cognitive flexibility in young children: General or task-specific capacity?

PubMed

Deák, Gedeon O; Wiseheart, Melody

2015-10-01

Cognitive flexibility is the ability to adapt to changing tasks or problems. To test whether cognitive flexibility is a coherent cognitive capacity in young children, we tested 3- to 5-year-olds' performance on two forms of task switching, rule-based (Three Dimension Changes Card Sorting, 3DCCS) and inductive (Flexible Induction of Meaning-Animates and Objects, FIM-Ob and FIM-An), as well as tests of response speed, verbal working memory, inhibition, and reasoning. Results suggest that cognitive flexibility is not a globally coherent trait; only the two inductive word-meaning (FIM) tests showed high inter-test coherence. Task- and knowledge-specific factors also determine children's flexibility in a given test. Response speed, vocabulary size, and causal reasoning skills further predicted individual and age differences in flexibility, although they did not have the same predictive relation with all three flexibility tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent advances in the diagnosis of drug allergy.

PubMed

Primeau, M N; Adkinson, N F

2001-08-01

The diagnosis of immunologic drug reactions is based primarily on a detailed clinical history and historical data on relative immunogenicity of the culprit drugs. Except for a few standardized skin tests, most of the other methods for diagnosing drug allergy have unproven diagnostic or predictive clinical utility. Many tests for drug-specific immune responses are suggestive if positive, but have unknown negative predictive values. The present review addresses the most recent published literature regarding the diagnosis of drug allergy. Recent advances in the use of the lymphocyte transformation test, and delayed intradermal skin tests and patch tests for the diagnosis of delayed cutaneous reactions to penicillins suggest that these tests may have clinical utility, although confirmatory reports are still missing. For the diagnosis of acute vaccine reactions, gelatin-specific IgE as measured by radioallergosorbent test has now been shown to be reliably associated with allergic reactions to gelatin-containing vaccines.

Body Dysmorphic, Obsessive-Compulsive, and Social Anxiety Disorder Beliefs as Predictors of In Vivo Stressor Responding.

PubMed

Parsons, E Marie; Straub, Kelsey T; Smith, April R; Clerkin, Elise M

2017-06-01

This study tested the potential transdiagnostic nature of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and social anxiety disorder (SAD) beliefs, in addition to testing the specificity of those beliefs, in predicting how individuals responded to symptom-specific stressors. Participants included 127 adults (75% women) with a broad range of symptom severity. Path analysis was used to evaluate whether specific maladaptive beliefs predicted distress in response to symptom-relevant stressors over and above other beliefs and baseline distress. SAD beliefs emerged as a significant predictor of distress in response to a mirror gazing (BDD-relevant), a thought (OCD-relevant), and a public speaking (SAD-relevant) task, controlling for other disorder beliefs and baseline distress. BDD beliefs were also a robust predictor of BDD stressor responding. Results suggest that social anxiety-relevant beliefs may function as a transdiagnostic risk factor that predicts in vivo symptoms across a range of problem areas.

Improve SSME power balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Gerald R.

1992-01-01

Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

Reassessment of the positive predictive value and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF: a diagnostic accuracy study in the context of community-wide screening for tuberculosis.

PubMed

Ho, Jennifer; Nguyen, Phuong Thi Bich; Nguyen, Thu Anh; Tran, Khoa Hien; Van Nguyen, Son; Nguyen, Nhung Viet; Nguyen, Hoa Binh; Luu, Khanh Boi; Fox, Greg J; Marks, Guy B

2016-09-01

Community-wide screening for tuberculosis with Xpert MTB/RIF as a primary screening tool overcomes some of the limitations of conventional screening. However, concerns exist about the low positive predictive value of this test in screening settings. We did a cross-sectional assessment of this diagnostic test to directly estimate the actual positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF when used in the setting of community-wide screening for tuberculosis, and to draw an inference about the specificity of the test for tuberculosis detection. Field staff visited households in 60 randomly selected villages in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. We included people aged 15 years or older who provided written informed consent and were able to produce 0·5 mL or more of sputum, irrespective of reported symptoms. Participants were tested with Xpert MTB/RIF, then those with positive results had two further sputum samples tested for smear microscopy and culture, and underwent chest radiography at the provincial TB Health Center. The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was compared against two reference standards for tuberculosis diagnosis-a positive sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and a positive sputum culture or a chest radiograph consistent with active pulmonary tuberculosis. We then calculated the specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis detection on the basis of these positive predictive values and disease prevalence in this setting. 43 435 adults consented to screening with Xpert MTB/RIF. Sputum samples of 0·5 mL or greater were collected from 23 202 participants, producing 22 673 valid results. 169 participants had positive Xpert MTB/RIF results (0·39% of those screened and 0·75% of those with valid sputum results). The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was 61·0% (95% CI 52·8-68·7) when compared against a positive sputum culture and 83·9% (76·8-89·2) when compared against a positive sputum culture or chest radiograph consistent with active tuberculosis. On the basis of these positive predictive values, the specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF was determined to be between 99·78% (95% CI 99·71-99·84) and 99·93% (99·88-99·96). The positive predictive value and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF in the context of community-wide screening for tuberculosis is substantially higher than that predicted in previous studies. Our findings support the potential role of Xpert MTB/RIF as a primary screening tool to detect prevalent cases of tuberculosis in the community. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of an inexpensive, Paracheck test in detecting asymptomatic infectious reservoir of plasmodium falciparum during dry season in an inaccessible terrain in central India.

PubMed

Singh, N; Saxena, A; Sharma, V P

2002-10-01

The performance of a new indigenous rapid diagnostic test, Paracheck Pf was evaluated in detection of Plasmodium falciparum in asymptomatic children in remote forest villages of Mandla district, central India to determine the lower limits of sensitivity and specificity of rapid test. A finger prick blood sample was collected to prepare blood smear and for testing with the Paracheck test. The blood smears were read by an experienced technician blinded to the Paracheck results. The figures for specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and predictive values were calculated using microscopy as gold standard. The new diagnostic test had a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 89%. The positive and negative predictive values were 71% and 98%, respectively. The J -index was 0.83%. The rapid test was found to be very easy to perform and the result could be read reliably by field workers. The field evaluation with this new inexpensive test, ($0.65/test) indicates that it could be used as an epidemiological tool in the management of malaria particularly in areas where microscopy is not operationally feasible to attain the goal of the roll back malaria initiative.

Prediction of heart transplant rejection with a breath test for markers of oxidative stress.

PubMed

Phillips, Michael; Boehmer, John P; Cataneo, Renee N; Cheema, Taseer; Eisen, Howard J; Fallon, John T; Fisher, Peter E; Gass, Alan; Greenberg, Joel; Kobashigawa, Jon; Mancini, Donna; Rayburn, Barry; Zucker, Mark J

2004-12-15

The Heart Allograft Rejection: Detection with Breath Alkanes in Low Levels study evaluated a breath test for oxidative stress in heart transplant recipients, and we report here a mathematical model predicting the probability of grade 3 rejection. The breath test divided the heart transplant recipients into 3 groups: positive for grade 3 rejection, negative for grade 3 rejection, and intermediate. The test was 100% sensitive for grade 3 heart transplant rejection when the p value was >/=0.98, and 100% specific when the p value was

Skill Analysis as a Technique for Predicting Vocational Success of the Mentally Retarded.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Human Resources Center, Albertson, NY.

This study was designed to develop a skill anaysis test battery which would aid in the prediction of achievement in two specific areas of training. A total of forty educable mentally retarded students in work study classes were selected for training. A three part rating scale specifically for this study was used as criterion meansure against the…

Trends in improving the embryonic stem cell test (EST): an overview.

PubMed

Buesen, Roland; Visan, Anke; Genschow, Elke; Slawik, Birgitta; Spielmann, Horst; Seiler, Andrea

2004-01-01

The embryonic stem cell test (EST) is an in vitro assay that has been developed to assess the teratogenic and embryotoxic potential of drugs and chemicals. It is based on the capacity of murine ES cells (cell line D3) to differentiate into contracting myocardial cells under specific cell culture conditions. The appearance of beating cardiomyocytes in embryoid body (EB) outgrowths is used as a toxicological endpoint to assess the embryotoxic potential of a test substance. Applying linear analysis of discriminance, a biostatistical prediction model (PM) was developed to assign test chemicals to three classes of embryotoxicity. In an international validation study the EST predicted the embryotoxic potential of chemicals and drugs with the same reliability as two other in vitro embryotoxicity tests, which employed embryonic cells and tissues from pregnant animals. In a joint research project with German pharmaceutical companies we have successfully improved the EST by establishing molecular endpoints of differentiation in cultured ES cells. The quantification of cardiac-specific protein expression by intracellular flow cytometry has been studied in the presence of chemicals of different embryotoxic potential. The results obtained using molecular endpoints specific for differentiated cardiomyocytes employing FACS (fluorescence-activated cell sorting) analysis will be presented in comparison to the validated endpoint - the microscopic analysis of beating areas. FACS analysis provides a more objective endpoint for predicting the embryotoxic potential of chemicals than the validated method. Furthermore, flow cytometry promises to be suitable for high-throughput screening systems (HTS). In addition, our partners from the joint project have improved the EST by developing protocols that stimulate differentiation of ES cells into neural and endothelial cells, chondrocytes and osteoblasts, because some substances might have embryotoxic effects on specific cell-types other than cardiomyocytes. These protocols have been successfully established at ZEBET and in the participating laboratories. Additionally, molecular endpoints have been established for the detection of specific differentiation pathways. Furthermore, new prediction models (PMs) have been developed using single endpoints of the EST.

Relationships and Predictive Capabilities of Jump Assessments to Soccer-Specific Field Test Performance in Division I Collegiate Players

PubMed Central

Lockie, Robert G.; Stage, Alyssa A.; Stokes, John J.; Orjalo, Ashley J.; Davis, DeShaun L.; Giuliano, Dominic V.; Moreno, Matthew R.; Risso, Fabrice G.; Lazar, Adrina; Birmingham-Babauta, Samantha A.; Tomita, Tricia M.

2016-01-01

Leg power is an important characteristic for soccer, and jump tests can measure this capacity. Limited research has analyzed relationships between jumping and soccer-specific field test performance in collegiate male players. Nineteen Division I players completed tests of: leg power (vertical jump (VJ), standing broad jump (SBJ), left- and right-leg triple hop (TH)); linear (30 m sprint; 0–5 m, 5–10 m, 0–10, 0–30 m intervals) and change-of-direction (505) speed; soccer-specific fitness (Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 2); and 7 × 30-m sprints to measure repeated-sprint ability (RSA; total time (TT), performance decrement (PD)). Pearson’s correlations (r) determined jump and field test relationships; stepwise regression ascertained jump predictors of the tests (p < 0.05). All jumps correlated with the 0–5, 0–10, and 0–30 m sprint intervals (r = −0.65–−0.90). VJ, SBJ, and left- and right-leg TH correlated with RSA TT (r = −0.51–−0.59). Right-leg TH predicted the 0–5 and 0–10 m intervals (R2 = 0.55–0.81); the VJ predicted the 0–30 m interval and RSA TT (R2 = 0.41–0.84). Between-leg TH asymmetry correlated with and predicted left-leg 505 and RSA PD (r = −0.68–0.62; R2 = 0.39–0.46). Improvements in jumping ability could contribute to faster speed and RSA performance in collegiate soccer players. PMID:29910304

Feasibility of Predicting MCI/AD Using Neuropsychological Tests and Serum β-Amyloid

PubMed Central

Luis, Cheryl A.; Abdullah, Laila; Ait-Ghezala, Ghania; Mouzon, Benoit; Keegan, Andrew P.; Crawford, Fiona; Mullan, Michael

2011-01-01

We examined the usefulness of brief neuropsychological tests and serum Aβ as a predictive test for detecting MCI/AD in older adults. Serum Aβ levels were measured from 208 subjects who were cognitively normal at enrollment and blood draw. Twenty-eight of the subjects subsequently developed MCI (n = 18) or AD (n = 10) over the follow-up period. Baseline measures of global cognition, memory, language fluency, and serum Aβ1–42 and the ratio of serum Aβ1–42/Aβ1–40 were significant predictors for future MCI/AD using Cox regression with demographic variables, APOE ε4, vascular risk factors, and specific medication as covariates. An optimal sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 86.5% for predicting MCI/AD was achieved using ROC analyses. Brief neuropsychological tests and measurements of Aβ1–42 obtained via blood warrants further study as a practical and cost effective method for wide-scale screening for identifying older adults who may be at-risk for pathological cognitive decline. PMID:21660215

Sensitivity to Spatiotemporal Percepts Predicts the Perception of Emotion

PubMed Central

Castro, Vanessa L.; Boone, R. Thomas

2015-01-01

The present studies examined how sensitivity to spatiotemporal percepts such as rhythm, angularity, configuration, and force predicts accuracy in perceiving emotion. In Study 1, participants (N = 99) completed a nonverbal test battery consisting of three nonverbal emotion perception tests and two perceptual sensitivity tasks assessing rhythm sensitivity and angularity sensitivity. Study 2 (N = 101) extended the findings of Study 1 with the addition of a fourth nonverbal test, a third configural sensitivity task, and a fourth force sensitivity task. Regression analyses across both studies revealed partial support for the association between perceptual sensitivity to spatiotemporal percepts and greater emotion perception accuracy. Results indicate that accuracy in perceiving emotions may be predicted by sensitivity to specific percepts embedded within channel- and emotion-specific displays. The significance of such research lies in the understanding of how individuals acquire emotion perception skill and the processes by which distinct features of percepts are related to the perception of emotion. PMID:26339111

[Efficacy of stool antigen and serologic tests in the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori in Ecuadorian population].

PubMed

Gómez, Néstor A; Alvarez, Ludwig R; Zapatier, Jorge A; Vargas, Paola E

2005-01-01

To assess the effectiveness in the Ecuadorian population of 2 non-invasive methods for the detection of the Helicobacter pylori: the stool antigens immunoassay (HpSAg) and the determination IgG serum of'antibodies. Eighty six dyspeptic patients were evaluated. In each, Helicobacter pylori presence was investigated with three methods: histology, HpSAg and serology. Sensibility and specificity values were obtained, as well as the positive and negative predictive values. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori with the 3 tests was 89.53%. The sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were: 42.5%, 69.2%, 88.6% and 17.6% with histology; 69.2%, 42.9%, 78.9% and 31% with HpSAg; 64.2%, 47.7%, 81.1% and 27.3% with serology. In the highly prevalent Ecuadorian setting, HpSAg and serology have relative low sensibility and specificity values. Based on our results, it is necessary to assess for conditions that could alter their results, and strategies to increase the sensibility of these tests, including the histology.

Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers.

PubMed

Simon, Richard

2015-08-01

Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Testing Job-Specific Literacy of Industrial Workers: Cooperation between Educators and Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, William W.; Stewart, Oran J.

A test of job-specific literacy, called the McCoy Assessment of Worksite Literacy Abilities (MAWSLA), could not predict the job success of the 100 employees who took it. The 108-item test was based on literary tasks encountered by employees in the course of a routine day at McCoy Electronics Company, a 560-employee firm in Pennsylvania. The…

Artificial neural networks: Predicting head CT findings in elderly patients presenting with minor head injury after a fall.

PubMed

Dusenberry, Michael W; Brown, Charles K; Brewer, Kori L

2017-02-01

To construct an artificial neural network (ANN) model that can predict the presence of acute CT findings with both high sensitivity and high specificity when applied to the population of patients≥age 65years who have incurred minor head injury after a fall. An ANN was created in the Python programming language using a population of 514 patients ≥ age 65 years presenting to the ED with minor head injury after a fall. The patient dataset was divided into three parts: 60% for "training", 20% for "cross validation", and 20% for "testing". Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were determined by comparing the model's predictions to the actual correct answers for each patient. On the "cross validation" data, the model attained a sensitivity ("recall") of 100.00%, specificity of 78.95%, PPV ("precision") of 78.95%, NPV of 100.00%, and accuracy of 88.24% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. On the "test" data, the model attained a sensitivity of 97.78%, specificity of 89.47%, PPV of 88.00%, NPV of 98.08%, and accuracy of 93.14% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. ANNs show great potential for predicting CT findings in the population of patients ≥ 65 years of age presenting with minor head injury after a fall. As a good first step, the ANN showed comparable sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy, with a much higher specificity than the existing decision rules in clinical usage for predicting head CTs with acute intracranial findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Heart Rate at the Ventilatory Threshold for Aerobic Exercise Prescription in Persons With Chronic Stroke.

PubMed

Boyne, Pierce; Buhr, Sarah; Rockwell, Bradley; Khoury, Jane; Carl, Daniel; Gerson, Myron; Kissela, Brett; Dunning, Kari

2015-10-01

Treadmill aerobic exercise improves gait, aerobic capacity, and cardiovascular health after stroke, but a lack of specificity in current guidelines could lead to underdosing or overdosing of aerobic intensity. The ventilatory threshold (VT) has been recommended as an optimal, specific starting point for continuous aerobic exercise. However, VT measurement is not available in clinical stroke settings. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify an accurate method to predict heart rate at the VT (HRVT) for use as a surrogate for VT. A cross-sectional design was employed. Using symptom-limited graded exercise test (GXT) data from 17 subjects more than 6 months poststroke, prediction methods for HRVT were derived by traditional target HR calculations (percentage of HRpeak achieved during GXT, percentage of peak HR reserve [HRRpeak], percentage of age-predicted maximal HR, and percentage of age-predicted maximal HR reserve) and by regression analysis. The validity of the prediction methods was then tested among 8 additional subjects. All prediction methods were validated by the second sample, so data were pooled to calculate refined prediction equations. HRVT was accurately predicted by 80% HRpeak (R, 0.62; standard deviation of error [SDerror], 7 bpm), 62% HRRpeak (R, 0.66; SDerror, 7 bpm), and regression models that included HRpeak (R, 0.62-0.75; SDerror, 5-6 bpm). Derived regression equations, 80% HRpeak and 62% HRRpeak, provide a specific target intensity for initial aerobic exercise prescription that should minimize underdosing and overdosing for persons with chronic stroke. The specificity of these methods may lead to more efficient and effective treatment for poststroke deconditioning.Video Abstract available for more insights from the authors (see Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/JNPT/A114).

10-Minute Delayed Recall from the Modified Mini-Mental State Test Predicts Alzheimer’s Disease Pathology

PubMed Central

Lyness, Scott A.; Lee, Ae Young; Zarow, Chris; Teng, Evelyn L.; Chui, Helena C.

2014-01-01

We compared the sensitivity and specificity of two delayed recall scores from the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) test with consensus clinical diagnosis to differentiate cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) versus non-AD pathologies. At a memory disorders clinic, 117 cognitively impaired patients were administered a baseline 3MS test and received a contemporaneous consensus clinical diagnosis. Their brains were examined after death about 5 years later. Using logistic regression with forward selection to predict pathologically defined AD versus non-AD, 10-min delayed recall entered first (p = 0.001), followed by clinical diagnosis (p = 0.02); 1-min delayed recall did not enter. 10-min delayed recall scores ≤4 (score range = 0–9) were 87% sensitive and 47% specific in predicting AD pathology; consensus clinical diagnosis was 82% sensitive and 45% specific. For the 57 patients whose initial Mini-Mental State Examination scores were ≥19 (the median), 3MS 10-min delayed recall scores ≤4 showed some loss of sensitivity (80%) but a substantial gain in specificity (77%). In conclusion, 10-min delayed recall score on the brief 3MS test distinguished between AD versus non-AD pathology about 5 years before death at least as well as consensus clinical diagnosis that requires much more comprehensive information and complex deliberation. PMID:24240637

10-minute delayed recall from the modified mini-mental state test predicts Alzheimer's disease pathology.

PubMed

Lyness, Scott A; Lee, Ae Young; Zarow, Chris; Teng, Evelyn L; Chui, Helena C

2014-01-01

We compared the sensitivity and specificity of two delayed recall scores from the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) test with consensus clinical diagnosis to differentiate cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) versus non-AD pathologies. At a memory disorders clinic, 117 cognitively impaired patients were administered a baseline 3MS test and received a contemporaneous consensus clinical diagnosis. Their brains were examined after death about 5 years later. Using logistic regression with forward selection to predict pathologically defined AD versus non-AD, 10-min delayed recall entered first (p = 0.001), followed by clinical diagnosis (p = 0.02); 1-min delayed recall did not enter. 10-min delayed recall scores ≤4 (score range = 0-9) were 87% sensitive and 47% specific in predicting AD pathology; consensus clinical diagnosis was 82% sensitive and 45% specific. For the 57 patients whose initial Mini-Mental State Examination scores were ≥19 (the median), 3MS 10-min delayed recall scores ≤4 showed some loss of sensitivity (80%) but a substantial gain in specificity (77%). In conclusion, 10-min delayed recall score on the brief 3MS test distinguished between AD versus non-AD pathology about 5 years before death at least as well as consensus clinical diagnosis that requires much more comprehensive information and complex deliberation.

A new computer program for mass screening of visual defects in preschool children.

PubMed

Briscoe, D; Lifshitz, T; Grotman, M; Kushelevsky, A; Vardi, H; Weizman, S; Biedner, B

1998-04-01

To test the effectiveness of a PC computer program for detecting vision disorders which could be used by non-trained personnel, and to determine the prevalence of visual impairment in a sample population of preschool children in the city of Beer-Sheba, Israel. 292 preschool children, aged 4-6 years, were examined in the kindergarten setting, using the computer system and "gold standard" tests. Visual acuity and stereopsis were tested and compared using Snellen type symbol charts and random dot stereograms respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and kappa test were evaluated. A computer pseudo Worth four dot test was also performed but could not be compared with the standard Worth four dot test owing to the inability of many children to count. Agreement between computer and gold standard tests was 83% and 97.3% for visual acuity and stereopsis respectively. The sensitivity of the computer stereogram was only 50%, but it had a specificity of 98.9%, whereas the sensitivity and specificity of the visual acuity test were 81.5% and 83% respectively. The positive predictive value of both tests was about 63%. 27.7% of children tested had a visual acuity of 6/12 or less and stereopsis was absent in 28% using standard tests. Impairment of fusion was found in 5% of children using the computer pseudo Worth four dot test. The computer program was found to be stimulating, rapid, and easy to perform. The wide availability of computers in schools and at home allow it to be used as an additional screening tool by non-trained personnel, such as teachers and parents, but it is not a replacement for standard testing.

Issues in the Development of the AIDMAN VISION SCREENER

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

relationship between the P-T ratio and disease prevalence . As indicated in the bottom portion of Figure 2, the predictive value of any screening test is...absence of disease/injury The Importance of Disease/Injury Prevalence Disease Prevalence - (TP + FN) / TOTAL The specificity and sensitivity The positive...and negative (and their corresponding inverses) predictive values of a given test of a given test are not affected by disease prevalence ! are affected

Ultrasound as a screening test for genitourinary anomalies in children with UTI.

PubMed

Nelson, Caleb P; Johnson, Emilie K; Logvinenko, Tanya; Chow, Jeanne S

2014-03-01

The 2011 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines state that renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) should be performed after initial febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) in a young child, with voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) performed only if RBUS shows abnormalities. We sought to determine test characteristics and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG findings in this setting. We analyzed 3995 clinical encounters from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010 during which VCUG and RBUS were performed for history of UTI. Patients who had previous postnatal genitourinary imaging or history of prenatal hydronephrosis were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities were determined. We identified 2259 patients age <60 months who had UTI as the indication for imaging. RBUS was reported as "normal" in 75%. On VCUG, any vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) was identified in 41.7%, VUR grade >II in 20.9%, and VUR grade >III in 2.8%. Sensitivity of RBUS for any abnormal findings on VCUG ranged from 5% (specificity: 97%) to 28% (specificity: 77%). Sensitivity for VUR grade >III ranged from 18% (specificity: 97%) to 55% (specificity: 77%). Among the 1203 children aged 2 to 24 months imaged after a first febrile UTI, positive predictive value of RBUS was 37% to 47% for VUR grade >II (13% to 24% for VUR grade >III); negative predictive value was 72% to 74% for VUR grade >II (95% to 96% for VUR grade >III). RBUS is a poor screening test for genitourinary abnormalities. RBUS and VCUG should be considered complementary as they provide important, but different, information.

Ultrasound as a Screening Test for Genitourinary Anomalies in Children With UTI

PubMed Central

Johnson, Emilie K.; Logvinenko, Tanya; Chow, Jeanne S.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The 2011 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines state that renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) should be performed after initial febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) in a young child, with voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) performed only if RBUS shows abnormalities. We sought to determine test characteristics and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG findings in this setting. METHODS: We analyzed 3995 clinical encounters from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010 during which VCUG and RBUS were performed for history of UTI. Patients who had previous postnatal genitourinary imaging or history of prenatal hydronephrosis were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of RBUS for VCUG abnormalities were determined. RESULTS: We identified 2259 patients age <60 months who had UTI as the indication for imaging. RBUS was reported as “normal” in 75%. On VCUG, any vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) was identified in 41.7%, VUR grade >II in 20.9%, and VUR grade >III in 2.8%. Sensitivity of RBUS for any abnormal findings on VCUG ranged from 5% (specificity: 97%) to 28% (specificity: 77%). Sensitivity for VUR grade >III ranged from 18% (specificity: 97%) to 55% (specificity: 77%). Among the 1203 children aged 2 to 24 months imaged after a first febrile UTI, positive predictive value of RBUS was 37% to 47% for VUR grade >II (13% to 24% for VUR grade >III); negative predictive value was 72% to 74% for VUR grade >II (95% to 96% for VUR grade >III). CONCLUSIONS: RBUS is a poor screening test for genitourinary abnormalities. RBUS and VCUG should be considered complementary as they provide important, but different, information. PMID:24515519

[Practical guidelines for genetic testing in cardiovascular diseases].

PubMed

Reinhard, W; Trenkwalder, T; Schunkert, H

2017-08-01

In the last decade, genetic testing for cardiovascular disorders has become more and more relevant. Progress in molecular genetics has led to new opportunities for diagnostics, improved risk prediction and could lead to novel therapeutic approaches. Genetic diagnostic testing is relevant for both confirming a diagnosis as well as deciding on therapeutic consequences, if applicable. Furthermore, predictive testing in family members for specific cardiovascular diseases is now a standard procedure in holistic patient management. The process of genetic testing as well as documentation requirements and discussion of test results with patients are subject to legal regulations. These regulations might be confusing for clinical practitioners/cardiologists. The aim of this article is to provide a clinical framework for genetic testing. First, we explain the legal and ethical background. Second, we illustrate the process of genetic testing step by step and present updates on remuneration. Finally, we discuss the significance of genetic testing and specific disease indications in cardiology.

Reliability of fluorescein dye disappearance test in assessment of adults with nasolacrimal duct obstruction.

PubMed

Kashkouli, Mohsen Bahmani; Mirzajani, Hoora; Jamshidian-Tehrani, Mansooreh; Pakdel, Farzad; Nojomi, Marzieh; Aghaei, Gholam-Hossein

2013-01-01

To evaluate the role of fluorescein dye disappearance test (FDDT) in assessment of adults with primary acquired nasolacrimal duct obstruction (PANDO) and its correlation with age and severity of epiphora. In a prospective, cross-sectional comparative study, FDDT at 2 (2-FDDT), 5 (5-FDDT), and 10 (10-FDDT) minutes were performed in 58 eyes of 58 patients with PANDO (case) and 58 eyes of 58 subjects without epiphora (control) between 2008 and 2010. Exclusion criteria were any disease, trauma, or medications that might have an effect on tear drainage system. Patients with functional or incomplete obstruction and upper lacrimal drainage system obstruction were excluded in the case group. FDDT and severity of epiphora were graded. Case and control groups were matched. 2-FDDT showed a sensitivity of 82.8%, specificity of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 90.6%, and negative predictive value of 84.1%. Sensitivity and negative predictive value decreased to 71.1% and 78.6% in 5-FDDT. 5-FDDT specificity and positive predictive value, however, increased to 94.8% and 93.5%, respectively. There was no statistically significant correlation between severity of epiphora and age with FDDT. FDDT is a simple, reliable, and highly specific test in assessment of adults with PANDO.

LCR testing for gonorrhoea and chlamydia in population surveys and other screenings of low prevalence populations: coping with decreased positive predictive value.

PubMed

Zenilman, J M; Miller, W C; Gaydos, C; Rogers, S M; Turner, C F

2003-04-01

Nucleic acid amplification tests have facilitated field based STD studies and increased screening activities. However, even with highly specific tests, the positive predictive value (PPV) of such tests may be lower than desirable in low prevalence populations. We estimated PPVs for a single LCR test in a population survey in which positive specimens were retested. The Baltimore STD and Behavior Survey (BSBS) was a population based behavioural survey of adults which included collecting urine specimens to assess the prevalence of gonorrhoea and chlamydial infection. Gonorrhoea and chlamydial infection were diagnosed by ligase chain reaction (LCR). Nearly all positive results were retested by LCR. Because of cost considerations, negative results were not confirmed. Predicted curves for the PPV were calculated for a single testing assuming an LCR test sensitivity of 95%, and test specificities in the range 95.0%-99.9%, for disease prevalences between 1% and 10%. Positive specimens were retested to derive empirical estimates of the PPV of a positive result on a single LCR test. 579 participants age 18-35 provided urine specimens. 20 (3.5%) subjects initially tested positive for chlamydial infection, and 39 (6.7%) tested positive for gonococcal infection. If positive results on the repeat LCR are taken as confirmation of a "true" infection, the observed PPV for the first LCR testing was 89.5% for chlamydial infection and 83.3% for gonorrhoea. This is within the range of theoretical PPVs calculated from the assumed sensitivities and specificities of the LCR assays. Empirical performance of a single LCR testing approximated the theoretically predicted PPV in this field study. This result demonstrates the need to take account of the lower PPVs obtained when such tests are used in field studies or clinical screening of low prevalence populations. Repeat testing of specimens, preferably with a different assay (for example, polymerase chain reaction), and disclosure of the non-trivial potential for false positive test results would seem appropriate in all such studies.

Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

PubMed

Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

2013-01-01

This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and predictive validity tests showed that all 4 brief scales-hopelessness (H), anxiety sensitivity (AS), impulsivity (IMP), and sensation seeking (SS)-were related, in theoretically expected ways, to measures of substance use and other behavioral and emotional problems. Results also showed that when using the 4 SURPS subscales to identify adolescents "at risk," one can identify a high number of those who developed problems (high sensitivity scores ranging from 72 to 91%). And, as predicted, because each scale is related to specific substance and mental health problems, good specificity was obtained when using the individual personality subscales (e.g., most adolescents identified at high risk by the IMP scale developed conduct or drug use problems within the next 18 months [a high specificity score of 70 to 80%]). The SURPS is a valuable tool for identifying adolescents at high risk for substance misuse and other emotional and behavioral problems. Implications of findings for the use of this measure in future research and prevention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Establishing a sample-to cut-off ratio for lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus in Indian context.

PubMed

Tiwari, Aseem K; Pandey, Prashant K; Negi, Avinash; Bagga, Ruchika; Shanker, Ajay; Baveja, Usha; Vimarsh, Raina; Bhargava, Richa; Dara, Ravi C; Rawat, Ganesh

2015-01-01

Lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is based on detecting specific antibodies by enzyme immuno-assay (EIA) or chemiluminescence immuno-assay (CIA). Center for Disease Control reported that signal-to-cut-off (s/co) ratios in anti-HCV antibody tests like EIA/CIA can be used to predict the probable result of supplemental test; above a certain s/co value it is most likely to be true-HCV positive result and below that certain s/co it is most likely to be false-positive result. A prospective study was undertaken in patients in tertiary care setting for establishing this "certain" s/co value. The study was carried out in consecutive patients requiring HCV testing for screening/diagnosis and medical management. These samples were tested for anti-HCV on CIA (VITROS(®) Anti-HCV assay, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, New Jersey) for calculating s/co value. The supplemental nucleic acid test used was polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (Abbott). PCR test results were used to define true negatives, false negatives, true positives, and false positives. Performance of different putative s/co ratios versus PCR was measured using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and most appropriate s/co was considered on basis of highest specificity at sensitivity of at least 95%. An s/co ratio of ≥6 worked out to be over 95% sensitive and almost 92% specific in 438 consecutive patient samples tested. The s/co ratio of six can be used for lab-diagnosis of HCV infection; those with s/co higher than six can be diagnosed to have HCV infection without any need for supplemental assays.

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Grade-Point Averages, Satisfaction, and Participation in the College Environment. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln, Yvonna S.; And Others

The ability of Vroom's expectancy motivation theory to predict student satisfaction with the college environment, student participation at school, and student academic performance was studied. Specific objectives of the study were as follows: to test the ability of Vroom's valence model to predict student satisfaction, to test the ability of…

Mallampati test as a predictor of laryngoscopic view.

PubMed

Adamus, Milan; Fritscherova, Sarka; Hrabalek, Lumir; Gabrhelik, Tomas; Zapletalova, Jana; Janout, Vladimir

2010-12-01

To determine the accuracy of the modified Mallampati test for predicting difficult tracheal intubation. A cross-sectional, clinical, observational, non-blinded study. A quality analysis of anesthetic care. Operating theatres and department of anesthesiology in a university hospital. Following the local ethics committee approval and patients' informed consent to anesthesia, all adult patients (> 18 yrs) presenting for any type of non-emergency surgical procedures under general anesthesia requiring endotracheal intubation were enrolled. Prior to anesthesia, Samsoon and Young's modification of the Mallampati test (modified Mallampati test) was performed. Following induction, the anesthesiologist described the laryngoscopic view using the Cormack-Lehane scale. Classes 3 or 4 of the modified Mallampati test were considered a predictor of difficult intubation. Grades 3 or 4 of the Cormack-Lehane classification of the laryngoscopic view were defined as impaired glottic exposure. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, relative risk, likelihood ratio and accuracy of the modified Mallampati test were calculated on 2x2 contingency tables. Of the total 1,518 patients enrolled, 48 had difficult intubation (3.2%). We failed to detect as many as 35.4% patients in whom glottis exposure during direct laryngoscopy was inadequate (sensitivity 0.646). Compared to the original article by Mallampati, we found lower specificity (0.824 vs. 0.995), lower positive predictive value (0.107 vs. 0.933), higher negative predictive value (0.986 vs. 0.928), lower likelihood ratio (3.68 vs. 91.0) and accuracy (0.819 vs. 0.929). When used as a single examination, the modified Mallampati test is of limited value in predicting difficult intubation.

Accuracy of specimen-specific nonlinear finite element analysis for evaluation of radial diaphysis strength in cadaver material.

PubMed

Matsuura, Yusuke; Kuniyoshi, Kazuki; Suzuki, Takane; Ogawa, Yasufumi; Sukegawa, Koji; Rokkaku, Tomoyuki; Thoreson, Andrew Ryan; An, Kai-Nan; Takahashi, Kazuhisa

2015-01-01

The feasibility of a user-specific finite element model for predicting the in situ strength of the radius after implantation of bone plates for open fracture reduction was established. The effect of metal artifact in CT imaging was characterized. The results were verified against biomechanical test data. Fourteen cadaveric radii were divided into two groups: (1) intact radii for evaluating the accuracy of radial diaphysis strength predictions with finite element analysis and (2) radii with a locking plate affixed for evaluating metal artifact. All bones were imaged with CT. In the plated group, radii were first imaged with the plates affixed (for simulating digital plate removal). They were then subsequently imaged with the locking plates and screws removed (actual plate removal). Fracture strength of the radius diaphysis under axial compression was predicted with a three-dimensional, specimen-specific, nonlinear finite element analysis for both the intact and plated bones (bones with and without the plate captured in the scan). Specimens were then loaded to failure using a universal testing machine to verify the actual fracture load. In the intact group, the physical and predicted fracture loads were strongly correlated. For radii with plates affixed, the physical and predicted (simulated plate removal and actual plate removal) fracture loads were strongly correlated. This study demonstrates that our specimen-specific finite element analysis can accurately predict the strength of the radial diaphysis. The metal artifact from CT imaging was shown to produce an overestimate of strength.

Predicting coronary artery disease using different artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Colak, M Cengiz; Colak, Cemil; Kocatürk, Hasan; Sağiroğlu, Seref; Barutçu, Irfan

2008-08-01

Eight different learning algorithms used for creating artificial neural network (ANN) models and the different ANN models in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) are introduced. This work was carried out as a retrospective case-control study. Overall, 124 consecutive patients who had been diagnosed with CAD by coronary angiography (at least 1 coronary stenosis > 50% in major epicardial arteries) were enrolled in the work. Angiographically, the 113 people (group 2) with normal coronary arteries were taken as control subjects. Multi-layered perceptrons ANN architecture were applied. The ANN models trained with different learning algorithms were performed in 237 records, divided into training (n=171) and testing (n=66) data sets. The performance of prediction was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values based on standard definitions. The results have demonstrated that ANN models trained with eight different learning algorithms are promising because of high (greater than 71%) sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values in the prediction of CAD. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values varied between 83.63%-100%, 86.46%-100% and 74.67%-100% for training, respectively. For testing, the values were more than 71% for sensitivity, 76% for specificity and 81% for accuracy. It may be proposed that the use of different learning algorithms other than backpropagation and larger sample sizes can improve the performance of prediction. The proposed ANN models trained with these learning algorithms could be used a promising approach for predicting CAD without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and could help in the prognostic clinical decision.

Suitability of the isolated chicken eye test for classification of extreme pH detergents and cleaning products.

PubMed

Cazelle, Elodie; Eskes, Chantra; Hermann, Martina; Jones, Penny; McNamee, Pauline; Prinsen, Menk; Taylor, Hannah; Wijnands, Marcel V W

2015-04-01

A.I.S.E. investigated the suitability of the regulatory adopted ICE in vitro test method (OECD TG 438) with or without histopathology to identify detergent and cleaning formulations having extreme pH that require classification as EU CLP/UN GHS Category 1. To this aim, 18 extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations were tested covering both alkaline and acidic extreme pHs. The ICE standard test method following OECD Test Guideline 438 showed good concordance with in vivo classification (83%) and good and balanced specificity and sensitivity values (83%) which are in line with the performances of currently adopted in vitro test guidelines, confirming its suitability to identify Category 1 extreme pH detergent and cleaning products. In contrast to previous findings obtained with non-extreme pH formulations, the use of histopathology did not improve the sensitivity of the assay whilst it strongly decreased its specificity for the extreme pH formulations. Furthermore, use of non-testing prediction rules for classification showed poor concordance values (33% for the extreme pH rule and 61% for the EU CLP additivity approach) with high rates of over-prediction (100% for the extreme pH rule and 50% for the additivity approach), indicating that these non-testing prediction rules are not suitable to predict Category 1 hazards of extreme pH detergent and cleaning formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of patch test in children with food allergy.

PubMed

Caglayan Sozmen, Sule; Povesi Dascola, Carlotta; Gioia, Edoardo; Mastrorilli, Carla; Rizzuti, Laura; Caffarelli, Carlo

2015-08-01

The gold standard test for confirming whether a child has clinical hypersensitivity reactions to foods is the oral food challenge. Therefore, there is increasing interest in simpler diagnostic markers of food allergy, especially in children, to avoid oral food challenge. The goal of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of atopy patch test in comparison with oral food challenge. We investigated 243 children (mean age, 51 months) referred for evaluation of suspected egg or cow's milk allergy. Skin prick test and atopy patch test were carried out, and after a 2 weeks elimination diet, oral food challenge was performed. Two hundred and forty-three children underwent OFC to the suspected food. We found clinically relevant food allergies in 40 (65%) children to egg and in 22 (35%) to cow's milk. The sensitivity of skin prick test for both milk and egg was 92%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 35%, and negative predictive value of 93%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of atopy patch test for both milk and egg were 21%, 73%, 20%, and 74%, respectively. Our study suggests that there is insufficient evidence for the routine use of atopy patch test for the evaluation of egg and cow's milk allergy. OFC remains gold standard for the diagnosis of egg and milk allergy even in the presence of high costs in terms of both time and risks during application. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Setting appropriate pass or fail cut-off criteria for tests to reflect real life listening difficulties in children with suspected auditory processing disorder.

PubMed

Ahmmed, Ansar U; Ahmmed, Afsara A

2016-05-01

This paper explores the pass or fail cut-off criteria, the number of test fails, and the nature of tests that are most appropriate in predicting listening difficulties (LiD) in children with suspected APD (SusAPD). One hundred and nine English-speaking children (67 males, 42 females) aged between 6 and 11 years with SusAPD were assessed. The Children's Auditory Performance Scale (CHAPS) scores 2 SD below the mean were taken as markers of LiD in different listening conditions. Binary logistic regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the cut-off criterion (2 SD or 1.5 SD or 1 SD below the mean) of failing at least two tests, from the SCAN-C and IMAP test batteries, which significantly predicted LiD. Analyses were also carried out to assess if the group of auditory processing (AP) or cognitive or combination of AP plus cognitive tests were significant in predicting LiD. Receiver Operative Characteristic (ROC) curves were also explored to evaluate how the sensitivity and specificity in confirming LiD varied with the number of test fails. Filtered Words, Competing Words, Competing Sentences, VCV in ICRA noise, Digit Span, Sight Word Reading and the Cued Auditory Attention tests correlated with one or more of the CHAPS domains. Failing at least two of these tests 1.5 SD below the mean significantly predicted (p<.05) CHAPS Ideal scores 2 SD below the mean, and failing at least two of the tests 1 SD below the mean significantly predicted (p<.05) CHAPS Memory and CHAPS Attention scores 2 SD below the mean. The combination of AP plus cognitive tests had significantly higher ability to predict CHAPS Ideal, Memory and Attention scores, compared to the group of AP or cognitive tests separately. ROC curves showed that failing at least two of the tests was associated with the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting LiD. Of the different CHAPS domains only the CHAPS Ideal, Memory and Attention correlated with the APD tests. Failing at least two APD tests from a combination of AP and cognitive tests 1 SD and 1.5 SD below the mean, but not 2 SD, is more appropriate in confirming LiD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can we improve clinical prediction of at-risk older drivers?

PubMed Central

Bowers, Alex R.; Anastasio, R. Julius; Sheldon, Sarah S.; O’Connor, Margaret G.; Hollis, Ann M.; Howe, Piers D.; Horowitz, Todd S.

2013-01-01

Objectives To conduct a pilot study to evaluate the predictive value of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test (MoCA) and a brief test of multiple object tracking (MOT) relative to other tests of cognition and attention in identifying at-risk older drivers, and to determine which combination of tests provided the best overall prediction. Methods Forty-seven currently-licensed drivers (58 to 95 years), primarily from a clinical driving evaluation program, participated. Their performance was measured on: (1) a screening test battery, comprising MoCA, MOT, MiniMental State Examination (MMSE), Trail-Making Test, visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and Useful Field of View (UFOV); and (2) a standardized road test. Results Eighteen participants were rated at-risk on the road test. UFOV subtest 2 was the best single predictor with an area under the curve (AUC) of .84. Neither MoCA nor MOT was a better predictor of the at-risk outcome than either MMSE or UFOV, respectively. The best four-test combination (MMSE, UFOV subtest 2, visual acuity and contrast sensitivity) was able to identify at-risk drivers with 95% specificity and 80% sensitivity (.91 AUC). Conclusions Although the best four-test combination was much better than a single test in identifying at-risk drivers, there is still much work to do in this field to establish test batteries that have both high sensitivity and specificity. PMID:23954688

Prepharmacy predictors of success in pharmacy school: grade point averages, pharmacy college admissions test, communication abilities, and critical thinking skills.

PubMed

Allen, D D; Bond, C A

2001-07-01

Good admissions decisions are essential for identifying successful students and good practitioners. Various parameters have been shown to have predictive power for academic success. Previous academic performance, the Pharmacy College Admissions Test (PCAT), and specific prepharmacy courses have been suggested as academic performance indicators. However, critical thinking abilities have not been evaluated. We evaluated the connection between academic success and each of the following predictive parameters: the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST) score, PCAT score, interview score, overall academic performance prior to admission at a pharmacy school, and performance in specific prepharmacy courses. We confirmed previous reports but demonstrated intriguing results in predicting practice-based skills. Critical thinking skills predict practice-based course success. Also, the CCTST and PCAT scores (Pearson correlation [pc] = 0.448, p < 0.001) were closely related in our students. The strongest predictors of practice-related courses and clerkship success were PCAT (pc=0.237, p<0.001) and CCTST (pc = 0.201, p < 0.001). These findings and other analyses suggest that PCAT may predict critical thinking skills in pharmacy practice courses and clerkships. Further study is needed to confirm this finding and determine which PCAT components predict critical thinking abilities.

Multistix 10 SG Leukocyte Esterage Dipstick Testing in Rapid Bedside Diagnosis of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Jha, Ashish K; Kumawat, Dal C; Bolya, Yasvant K; Goenka, Mahesh K

2012-09-01

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) requires rapid diagnosis and the initiation of antibiotics. Diagnosis of SBP is usually based on cytobacteriological examination of ascitic fluid. These tests require good laboratory facilities and reporting time of few hours to 1-2 day. However, the 24 h laboratory facilities not widely available in country like India. We evaluated the diagnostic utility of reagent strip (Multistix 10 SG(®)) for rapid diagnosis of SBP. The study was prospectively carried out on patients of cirrhosis with ascites. Bedside leukocyte esterase reagent strip testing was performed on ascitic fluid. Cell count as determined by colorimetric scale of reagent strip was compared with counting chamber method. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Out of 100 patients with cirrhotic ascites, [72 males: 28 female; mean age 44.34 (SD 13.03) years] 18 patients were diagnosed to have SBP by counting chamber method as compared to 14 patients detected to have SBP by reagent strip test ≥++ positive. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of reagent strip ≥++ positive were 77.77%, 95.12%, 77.77%, 95.12% and 92% respectively compared to counting chamber method. Reagent strip to diagnose SBP is very specific but less sensitive as compared to counting chamber method. This can be performed rapidly, easily and efficiently even in remote area of developing countries. This bedside test could be a useful tool for the diagnosis of SBP in country like India.

Performance of rapid tests and algorithms for HIV screening in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

PubMed

Loukou, Y G; Cabran, M A; Yessé, Zinzendorf Nanga; Adouko, B M O; Lathro, S J; Agbessi-Kouassi, K B T

2014-01-01

Seven rapid diagnosis tests (RDTs) of HIV were evaluated by a panel group who collected serum samples from patients in Abidjan (HIV-1 = 203, HIV-2 = 25, HIV-dual = 25, HIV = 305). Kit performances were recorded after the reference techniques (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The following RDTs showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity higher than 99%: Determine, Oraquick, SD Bioline, BCP, and Stat-Pak. These kits were used to establish infection screening strategies. The combination with 2 or 3 of these tests in series or parallel algorithms showed that series combinations with 2 tests (Oraquick and Bioline) and 3 tests (Determine, BCP, and Stat-Pak) gave the best performances (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100%). However, the combination with 2 tests appeared to be more onerous than the combination with 3 tests. The combination with Determine, BCP, and Stat-Pak tests serving as a tiebreaker could be an alternative to the HIV/AIDS serological screening in Abidjan.

Study on validity of a rapid diagnostic test kit versus light microscopy for malaria diagnosis in Ahmedabad city, India.

PubMed

Vyas, S; Puwar, B; Patel, V; Bhatt, G; Kulkarni, S; Fancy, M

2014-05-01

Light microscopy of blood smears for diagnosis of malaria in the field has several limitations, notably delays in diagnosis. This study in Ahmedabad in Gujarat State, India, evaluated the diagnostic performance of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (SD Bioline Malaria Ag P.f/Pan) versus blood smear examination as the gold standard. All fever cases presenting at 13 urban health centres were subjected to rapid diagnostic testing and thick and thin blood smears. A total of 677 cases with fever were examined; 135 (20.0%) tested positive by rapid diagnostic test and 86 (12.7%) by blood smear. The sensitivity of the rapid diagnostic test for malaria was 98.8%, specificity was 91.5%, positive predictive value 63.0% and negative predictive value 99.8%. For detection of Plasmodium falciparum the sensitivity of rapid diagnostic test was 100% and specificity was 97.3%. The results show the acceptability of the rapid test as an alternative to light microscopy in the field setting.

Stereo tests as a screening tool for strabismus: which is the best choice?

PubMed Central

Ancona, Chiara; Stoppani, Monica; Odazio, Veronica; La Spina, Carlo; Corradetti, Giulia; Bandello, Francesco

2014-01-01

Purpose To compare four stereo tests (Lang I, Lang II, Titmus, and TNO) and assess their effectiveness. The main focus of this study is to identify the most useful stereo test as a challenging tool in the screening of strabismus. Patients and methods A total of 143 Caucasian subjects, 74 males (52%) and 69 females (48%), aged between 4 years and 78 years (mean age 19.09±15.12 years) were examined at our Strabismus Service (Scientific Institute San Raffaele Hospital, Milan, Italy) and included in this observational cross-sectional study. Subjects recruited in this study were either affected by strabismus, including microstrabismic patients, or healthy volunteers. Subjects affected by ophthalmological diseases, other than strabismus, were excluded. All patients underwent both ophthalmological and orthoptic examination, including stereo tests, Hirschberg Corneal Light Reflex Test, Worth Four-Dot Test, the 4 Prism Diopter Base-Out Test, Cover Testing, Bruckner Test, visual acuity, automated refraction under 1% tropicamide cycloplegia and thereafter, posterior pole evaluation. Results All data were processed using the IBM SPSS Statistics, Version 2.0, to perform all statistical calculations. The main finding of this study is that Lang I stereo test achieved the highest sensitivity (89.8%) and specificity (95.2%) in detecting strabismus, including microstrabismus as well, compared to all the other stereoacuity tests. Furthermore, Lang I is the stereo test with the highest positive predictive value and negative predictive value, both greater than 90%. Conclusion The stereo test with the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value is Lang I. These results suggest its applicability as a screening test for strabismus in people older than 4 years. PMID:25419114

Determination of hemispheric language dominance using functional magnetic resonance imaging and the Shiritori (Japanese word chain) task in patients with epilepsy: Comparison with the Wada test.

PubMed

Kashida, Yumi; Otsubo, Toshiaki; Hanaya, Ryosuke; Kodabashi, Atsushi; Tsumagari, Noriko; Sugata, Sei; Hosoyama, Hiroshi; Iida, Koji; Nakamura, Katsumi; Tokimura, Hiroshi; Fujimoto, Toshiro; Arita, Kazunori

2016-08-01

The Wada test has been the gold standard for determining hemispheric language dominance (HLD) in the presurgical evaluation of patients scheduled for neurosurgical procedures. As it poses inherent risks associated with intra-arterial catheter techniques and as it occasionally fails to indicate language dominance, an alternative reliable test is needed. We quantitatively assessed the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using the Shiritori task, a Japanese word chain, to identify the threshold for correctly predicting HLD. The subjects were 28 patients with intractable epilepsy scheduled to undergo the Wada test and focus resection. We set the region of interest (ROI) on the bilateral Brodmann areas 44 and 45 (BA 44 and 45). To compare the functional activity at both ROIs we calculated the language laterality index (LI) using the formula: [VL-VR]/[VL+VR]×100, where VL and VR indicated the number of activated voxels in the left and right ROIs, respectively. As 2 patients were excluded due to the lack of activation in either ROI, the final study population consisted of 26 patients. By the Wada test, HLD was left in 20, right in 3, and equivocal in 3. At a cut-off of LI+50, the predictive sensitivity and specificity for left HLD were 85% (17/20) and 100%; right HLD was predicted in a single patient (sensitivity 33.3%, specificity 100%). The fMRI using the Shiritori task showed good activation in ROI of BA 44 and 45. At a cut-off of LI+50, LI of BA 44 and 45 predicted HLD identified by the Wada test with high specificity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using iron studies to predict HFE mutations in New Zealand: implications for laboratory testing.

PubMed

O'Toole, Rebecca; Romeril, Kenneth; Bromhead, Collette

2017-04-01

The diagnosis of hereditary haemochromatosis (HH) is not straightforward because symptoms are often absent or non-specific. Biochemical markers of iron-overloading may be affected by other conditions. To measure the correlation between iron studies and HFE genotype to inform evidence-based recommendations for laboratory testing in New Zealand. Results from 2388 patients genotyped for C282Y, H63D and S65C in Wellington, New Zealand from 2007 to 2013 were compared with their biochemical phenotype as quantified by serum ferritin (SF), transferrin saturation (TS), serum iron (SI) and serum transferrin (ST). The predictive power of these markers was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and if a statistically significant association for a variable was seen, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated. Test ordering patterns showed that 62% of HFE genotyping tests were ordered because of an elevated SF alone and only 11% of these had a C-reactive protein test to rule out an acute phase reaction. The association between SF and significant HFE genotypes SF was low. However, TS values ≥45% predicted HH mutations with the highest sensitivity and specificity. A SF of >1000 µg/L was found in one at-risk patient (C282Y homozygote) who had a TS <45%. Our analysis highlights the need for clear guidelines for investigation of hyperferritinaemia and HH in New Zealand. Using our findings, we developed an evidence-based laboratory testing algorithm based on a TS ≥45%, a SF ≥1000 µg/L and/or a family history of HH which identified all C282Y homozygotes in this study. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players

PubMed Central

Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

2017-01-01

Objective To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Design Retrospective study. Methods Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar’s chi2 test with Yates’s correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. Results 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury detection. The use of 0.47 of Hcon/Qcon as a discriminate value resulted in significantly lower sensitivity when compared to 0.658 threshold (sensitivity of 16.7% vs. 91.7%, respectively; t = 6.125,p = 0.0133). Calculated values of specificity (when three different cut-off were applied) were also significantly different. Threshold of 0.6 of Hcon/Qcon resulted with significantly lower specificity compared to 0.47 value (specificity of 46.9% vs. 94.5%, respectively; t = 153.0,p<0.0001), and significantly higher specificity when compared to 0.658 (specificity of 46.9% vs. 24.1%, respectively; t = 229.0, p<0.0001). Conclusion The use of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic testing. The interpretation of usefulness of isokinetic test as a screening tool in a group of male professional football players to predict hamstring injury occurrence within the next 12 months might be therefore significantly biased due to the different threshold values of Hcon/Qcon. Using one “normative” value as a cut-off (e.g. 0.47 or 0.60, or 0.658) to quantify soccer players (or not) to the group with a higher risk of knee injury might result in biased outcomes due to the natural strength asymmetry that is observed within the group of soccer players. PMID:29216241

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players.

PubMed

Grygorowicz, Monika; Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

2017-01-01

To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Retrospective study. Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar's chi2 test with Yates's correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury detection. The use of 0.47 of Hcon/Qcon as a discriminate value resulted in significantly lower sensitivity when compared to 0.658 threshold (sensitivity of 16.7% vs. 91.7%, respectively; t = 6.125,p = 0.0133). Calculated values of specificity (when three different cut-off were applied) were also significantly different. Threshold of 0.6 of Hcon/Qcon resulted with significantly lower specificity compared to 0.47 value (specificity of 46.9% vs. 94.5%, respectively; t = 153.0,p<0.0001), and significantly higher specificity when compared to 0.658 (specificity of 46.9% vs. 24.1%, respectively; t = 229.0, p<0.0001). The use of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic testing. The interpretation of usefulness of isokinetic test as a screening tool in a group of male professional football players to predict hamstring injury occurrence within the next 12 months might be therefore significantly biased due to the different threshold values of Hcon/Qcon. Using one "normative" value as a cut-off (e.g. 0.47 or 0.60, or 0.658) to quantify soccer players (or not) to the group with a higher risk of knee injury might result in biased outcomes due to the natural strength asymmetry that is observed within the group of soccer players.

Ares I-X Launch Abort System, Crew Module, and Upper Stage Simulator Vibroacoustic Flight Data Evaluation, Comparison to Predictions, and Recommendations for Adjustments to Prediction Methodology and Assumptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; Harrison, Phil

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) has identified a series of tests to provide insight into the design and development of the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Ares I-X was selected as the first suborbital development flight test to help meet CxP objectives. The Ares I-X flight test vehicle (FTV) is an early operational model of CLV, with specific emphasis on CLV and ground operation characteristics necessary to meet Ares I-X flight test objectives. The in-flight part of the test includes a trajectory to simulate maximum dynamic pressure during flight and perform a stage separation of the Upper Stage Simulator (USS) from the First Stage (FS). The in-flight test also includes recovery of the FS. The random vibration response from the ARES 1-X flight will be reconstructed for a few specific locations that were instrumented with accelerometers. This recorded data will be helpful in validating and refining vibration prediction tools and methodology. Measured vibroacoustic environments associated with lift off and ascent phases of the Ares I-X mission will be compared with pre-flight vibration predictions. The measured flight data was given as time histories which will be converted into power spectral density plots for comparison with the maximum predicted environments. The maximum predicted environments are documented in the Vibroacoustics and Shock Environment Data Book, AI1-SYS-ACOv4.10 Vibration predictions made using statistical energy analysis (SEA) VAOne computer program will also be incorporated in the comparisons. Ascent and lift off measured acoustics will also be compared to predictions to assess whether any discrepancies between the predicted vibration levels and measured vibration levels are attributable to inaccurate acoustic predictions. These comparisons will also be helpful in assessing whether adjustments to prediction methodologies are needed to improve agreement between the predicted and measured flight data. Future assessment will incorporate hybrid methods in VAOne analysis (i.e., boundary element methods, BEM and finite element methods, FEM). These hybrid methods will enable the ability to import NASTRAN models providing much more detailed modeling of the underlying beams and support structure of the ARES 1-X test vehicle. Measured acoustic data will be incorporated into these analyses to improve correlation for additional post flight analysis.

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-02-20

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion.

Building predictive in vitro pulmonary toxicity assays using high-throughput imaging and artificial intelligence.

PubMed

Lee, Jia-Ying Joey; Miller, James Alastair; Basu, Sreetama; Kee, Ting-Zhen Vanessa; Loo, Lit-Hsin

2018-06-01

Human lungs are susceptible to the toxicity induced by soluble xenobiotics. However, the direct cellular effects of many pulmonotoxic chemicals are not always clear, and thus, a general in vitro assay for testing pulmonotoxicity applicable to a wide variety of chemicals is not currently available. Here, we report a study that uses high-throughput imaging and artificial intelligence to build an in vitro pulmonotoxicity assay by automatically comparing and selecting human lung-cell lines and their associated quantitative phenotypic features most predictive of in vivo pulmonotoxicity. This approach is called "High-throughput In vitro Phenotypic Profiling for Toxicity Prediction" (HIPPTox). We found that the resulting assay based on two phenotypic features of a human bronchial epithelial cell line, BEAS-2B, can accurately classify 33 reference chemicals with human pulmonotoxicity information (88.8% balance accuracy, 84.6% sensitivity, and 93.0% specificity). In comparison, the predictivity of a standard cell-viability assay on the same set of chemicals is much lower (77.1% balanced accuracy, 84.6% sensitivity, and 69.5% specificity). We also used the assay to evaluate 17 additional test chemicals with unknown/unclear human pulmonotoxicity, and experimentally confirmed that many of the pulmonotoxic reference and predicted-positive test chemicals induce DNA strand breaks and/or activation of the DNA-damage response (DDR) pathway. Therefore, HIPPTox helps us to uncover these common modes-of-action of pulmonotoxic chemicals. HIPPTox may also be applied to other cell types or models, and accelerate the development of predictive in vitro assays for other cell-type- or organ-specific toxicities.

Prediction of non-linear pharmacokinetics in humans of an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) when evaluation of higher doses in animals is limited by tolerability: Case study with an anti-CD33 ADC.

PubMed

Figueroa, Isabel; Leipold, Doug; Leong, Steve; Zheng, Bing; Triguero-Carrasco, Montserrat; Fourie-O'Donohue, Aimee; Kozak, Katherine R; Xu, Keyang; Schutten, Melissa; Wang, Hong; Polson, Andrew G; Kamath, Amrita V

2018-05-14

For antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) that carry a cytotoxic drug, doses that can be administered in preclinical studies are typically limited by tolerability, leading to a narrow dose range that can be tested. For molecules with non-linear pharmacokinetics (PK), this limited dose range may be insufficient to fully characterize the PK of the ADC and limits translation to humans. Mathematical PK models are frequently used for molecule selection during preclinical drug development and for translational predictions to guide clinical study design. Here, we present a practical approach that uses limited PK and receptor occupancy (RO) data of the corresponding unconjugated antibody to predict ADC PK when conjugation does not alter the non-specific clearance or the antibody-target interaction. We used a 2-compartment model incorporating non-specific and specific (target mediated) clearances, where the latter is a function of RO, to describe the PK of anti-CD33 ADC with dose-limiting neutropenia in cynomolgus monkeys. We tested our model by comparing PK predictions based on the unconjugated antibody to observed ADC PK data that was not utilized for model development. Prospective prediction of human PK was performed by incorporating in vitro binding affinity differences between species for varying levels of CD33 target expression. Additionally, this approach was used to predict human PK of other previously tested anti-CD33 molecules with published clinical data. The findings showed that, for a cytotoxic ADC with non-linear PK and limited preclinical PK data, incorporating RO in the PK model and using data from the corresponding unconjugated antibody at higher doses allowed the identification of parameters to characterize monkey PK and enabled human PK predictions.

COMSAT: Residue contact prediction of transmembrane proteins based on support vector machines and mixed integer linear programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Huiling; Huang, Qingsheng; Bei, Zhendong; Wei, Yanjie; Floudas, Christodoulos A

2016-03-01

In this article, we present COMSAT, a hybrid framework for residue contact prediction of transmembrane (TM) proteins, integrating a support vector machine (SVM) method and a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) method. COMSAT consists of two modules: COMSAT_SVM which is trained mainly on position-specific scoring matrix features, and COMSAT_MILP which is an ab initio method based on optimization models. Contacts predicted by the SVM model are ranked by SVM confidence scores, and a threshold is trained to improve the reliability of the predicted contacts. For TM proteins with no contacts above the threshold, COMSAT_MILP is used. The proposed hybrid contact prediction scheme was tested on two independent TM protein sets based on the contact definition of 14 Å between Cα-Cα atoms. First, using a rigorous leave-one-protein-out cross validation on the training set of 90 TM proteins, an accuracy of 66.8%, a coverage of 12.3%, a specificity of 99.3% and a Matthews' correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.184 were obtained for residue pairs that are at least six amino acids apart. Second, when tested on a test set of 87 TM proteins, the proposed method showed a prediction accuracy of 64.5%, a coverage of 5.3%, a specificity of 99.4% and a MCC of 0.106. COMSAT shows satisfactory results when compared with 12 other state-of-the-art predictors, and is more robust in terms of prediction accuracy as the length and complexity of TM protein increase. COMSAT is freely accessible at http://hpcc.siat.ac.cn/COMSAT/. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Benefit of hepatitis C virus core antigen assay in prediction of therapeutic response to interferon and ribavirin combination therapy.

PubMed

Takahashi, Masahiko; Saito, Hidetsugu; Higashimoto, Makiko; Atsukawa, Kazuhiro; Ishii, Hiromasa

2005-01-01

A highly sensitive second-generation hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen assay has recently been developed. We compared viral disappearance and first-phase kinetics between commercially available core antigen (Ag) assays, Lumipulse Ortho HCV Ag (Lumipulse-Ag), and a quantitative HCV RNA PCR assay, Cobas Amplicor HCV Monitor test, version 2 (Amplicor M), to estimate the predictive benefit of a sustained viral response (SVR) and non-SVR in 44 genotype 1b patients treated with interferon (IFN) and ribavirin. HCV core Ag negativity could predict SVR on day 1 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 85.0%, accuracy = 86.4%), whereas RNA negativity could predict SVR on day 7 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 87.2%, accuracy = 88.6%). None of the patients who had detectable serum core Ag or RNA on day 14 achieved SVR (specificity = 100%). The predictive accuracy on day 14 was higher by RNA negativity (93.2%) than that by core Ag negativity (75.0%). The combined predictive criterion of both viral load decline during the first 24 h and basal viral load was also predictive for SVR; the sensitivities of Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were 45.5 and 47.6%, respectively, and the specificity was 100%. Amplicor-M had better predictive accuracy than Lumipulse-Ag in 2-week disappearance tests because it had better sensitivity. On the other hand, estimates of kinetic parameters were similar regardless of the detection method. Although the correlations between Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were good both before and 24 h after IFN administration, HCV core Ag seemed to be relatively lower 24 h after IFN administration than before administration. Lumipulse-Ag seems to be useful for detecting the HCV concentration during IFN therapy; however, we still need to understand the characteristics of the assay.

Inflation-deflation test as a predictor of aditus patency in patients with chronic suppurative otitis media.

PubMed

Kurien, Regi; Chrisolyte, Shipra; Rupa, V

2009-09-01

To assess eustachian tubal function (ETF) preoperatively in patients with chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) with central perforation by performing the inflation-deflation test. To correlate the results of the inflation-deflation test with the finding of aditus patency or block in patients with CSOM STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, cohort Tertiary care hospital Eighty adult patients with chronic suppurative otitis media and central perforation were recruited into the study. There were 45 males and 35 females. All patients underwent preoperative inflation-deflation test followed by cortical mastoidectomy and tympanoplasty. The patency of the aditus was assessed intraoperatively. Equalization of pressure on inflation-deflation test and intraoperative assessment of aditus patency Of a total of 80 patients, 49 patients were found to have discharging ears and 31 had dry ears at the time of surgery. In dry ears the inflation-deflation test had a sensitivity of 93% in predicting aditus patency although the specificity was lower at 67%. In discharging ears the sensitivity in predicting aditus patency was 72% and the specificity was 67%. The eustachian tube inflation-deflation test is a sensitive test for predicting aditus patency in patients with dry ears but less so in patients with discharging ears. Hence, it could be used in the former to avoid unnecessary exploration of the mastoid.

Teachers' Grade Assignment and the Predictive Validity of Criterion-Referenced Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thorsen, Cecilia; Cliffordson, Christina

2012-01-01

Research has found that grades are the most valid instruments for predicting educational success. Why grades have better predictive validity than, for example, standardized tests is not yet fully understood. One possible explanation is that grades reflect not only subject-specific knowledge and skills but also individual differences in other…

A Course Specific Perspective in the Prediction of Academic Success.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaulieu, R. P.

1990-01-01

Students (N=94) enrolled in a senior-level management course over six semesters were used to investigate the ability of four measures from two industrial tests to predict course performance. The resulting multiple regression equation with four predictors could accurately predict achievement of males, but not of females. (Author/TE)

Accuracy of a Mouse Bioassay for the Diagnosis of Botulism in Horses.

PubMed

Johnson, A L; McAdams-Gallagher, S C; Aceto, H

2016-07-01

The laboratory diagnosis of botulism in horses traditionally has relied upon the mouse bioassay (MBA). The accuracy of this test for the diagnosis of botulism in horses is unknown. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the MBA on laboratory-processed fecal and gastrointestinal samples for foals and adult horses. Cases included all horses with a final clinical diagnosis of botulism that were admitted between 1986 and 2011 and had MBA testing performed. Controls included horses without botulism that were admitted during the same time period and had MBA testing performed. Retrospective study. Horses suspected of having botulism had fecal or (less commonly) gastrointestinal content samples tested using MBA. For every hospitalized botulism suspect, control samples were obtained from ≥1 additional hospitalized horses not suspected to have botulism. One hundred and twenty-nine adult horses and 253 adult controls were identified. Overall sensitivity of the MBA was only 32% but specificity was 97%. Forty-three foal cases and 21 foal controls were evaluated; sensitivity of the MBA was 53% and specificity was 100%. Positive predictive value was substantially higher (100% for foals and 89% for adults) than negative predictive value (51% for foals and 67% for adults). Mouse bioassay has low sensitivity but high specificity for the diagnosis of botulism in horses. Positive results are highly suggestive of botulism but negative results do not exclude the diagnosis. Unaffected horses and foals rarely shed C. botulinum in their feces. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Muscle Weakness in the Empty and Full Can Tests Cannot Differentiate Rotator Cuff Tear from Cervical Spondylotic Amyotrophy: Pain Provocation is a Useful Finding.

PubMed

Iwata, Eiichiro; Shigematsu, Hideki; Inoue, Kazuya; Egawa, Takuya; Sakamoto, Yoshihiro; Tanaka, Yasuhito

2017-01-01

Rotator cuff tears and cervical spondylotic amyotrophy (CSA) are often confused as the main symptom in those with difficulty in shoulder elevation. Empty and full can tests are frequently used for the clinical diagnosis of rotator cuff tears. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the empty and full can test results can help differentiate rotator cuff tears from CSA. Twenty-seven consecutive patients with rotator cuff tears and 25 with CSA were enrolled. We prospectively performed empty and full can tests in patients with rotator cuff tears and CSA. The following signs were considered positive: (a) muscle weakness during the empty can test, (b) muscle weakness during the full can test, (c) pain provocation during the empty can test, and (d) pain provocation during the full can test. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of rotator cuff tears for each positive finding. The sensitivity and specificity of each index were as follows (sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV): (a) 77.8%, 0%, 45.7%, 0%; (b) 66.7%, 4.0%, 42.9%, 10.0%; (c) 88.9%, 96.0%, 96.0%, 88.9%; and (d) 74.1%, 96.0%, 95.2%, 77.4%. There were significant differences for each index. Muscle weakness during the empty and full can tests was not useful in differentiating rotator cuff tears from CSA because of low specificity and PPV. However, pain provocation was useful in differentiating these two conditions because of high specificity and PPV.

Subject specific finite element modeling of periprosthetic femoral fracture using element deactivation to simulate bone failure.

PubMed

Miles, Brad; Kolos, Elizabeth; Walter, William L; Appleyard, Richard; Shi, Angela; Li, Qing; Ruys, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Subject-specific finite element (FE) modeling methodology could predict peri-prosthetic femoral fracture (PFF) for cementless hip arthoplasty in the early postoperative period. This study develops methodology for subject-specific finite element modeling by using the element deactivation technique to simulate bone failure and validate with experimental testing, thereby predicting peri-prosthetic femoral fracture in the early postoperative period. Material assignments for biphasic and triphasic models were undertaken. Failure modeling with the element deactivation feature available in ABAQUS 6.9 was used to simulate a crack initiation and propagation in the bony tissue based upon a threshold of fracture strain. The crack mode for the biphasic models was very similar to the experimental testing crack mode, with a similar shape and path of the crack. The fracture load is sensitive to the friction coefficient at the implant-bony interface. The development of a novel technique to simulate bone failure by element deactivation of subject-specific finite element models could aid prediction of fracture load in addition to fracture risk characterization for PFF. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of breath carbon monoxide analyzer in screening for environmental tobacco smoke exposure in Saudi pregnant women.

PubMed

Alzeidan, Rasmieh Ayed; Mandil, Ahmed Amin; Fayed, Amel Ahmed; Wahabi, Hayfaa Abdulmajeed

2013-10-01

Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) has harmful effects on the pregnancy outcomes similar to those observed in actively smoking pregnant women. The aim of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the breath carbon monoxide (BCO) analysis in the assessment of smoking status among Saudi pregnant women, including ETS exposure compared to self-reported tobacco smoke exposure. A cross-sectional design was used during January 2012, 560 pregnant women, irrespective of their gestational age, agreed to undergo BCO testing and completed the data collection sheet for the study. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated to compare the BCO test with self-reported exposure to ETS. Of the study population 151 (27%) women self-reported ETS exposure during the index pregnancy, 409 (73%) self-reported non-exposure. Sensitivity of the test was 32.5% (95% CI; 25.2-40.3%), the Specificity was much higher at 69.2% (95% CI; 64.4-73.5%), the positive predictive value was 28% (95% CI, 21.9-35.1%), and the negative predictive value was 73.5% (95% CI; 68.9-77.7%). The BCO test is an ineffective tool to detect the level of ETS exposure among Saudi pregnant women.

Exploring Cognitive Relations Between Prediction in Language and Music.

PubMed

Patel, Aniruddh D; Morgan, Emily

2017-03-01

The online processing of both music and language involves making predictions about upcoming material, but the relationship between prediction in these two domains is not well understood. Electrophysiological methods for studying individual differences in prediction in language processing have opened the door to new questions. Specifically, we ask whether individuals with musical training predict upcoming linguistic material more strongly and/or more accurately than non-musicians. We propose two reasons why prediction in these two domains might be linked: (a) Musicians may have greater verbal short-term/working memory; (b) music may specifically reward predictions based on hierarchical structure. We provide suggestions as to how to expand upon recent work on individual differences in language processing to test these hypotheses. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Determining predictability and accuracy of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: An in vivo study.

PubMed

Salgar, Avinash Ramchandra; Singh, Shishir H; Podar, Rajesh S; Kulkarni, Gaurav P; Babel, Shashank N

2017-01-01

Pulp sensitivity testing, even with its limitations and shortcomings, has been and still remains a very helpful aid in endodontic diagnosis. Pulp sensitivity tests extrapolate pulpal health from the sensory response. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (NPVs) of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. Pulp tests studied were two cold and heat tests respectively and electrical test. A total of 330 teeth were tested: 198 teeth with vital pulp and 132 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 40%). The ideal standard was established by observing bleeding within the pulp chamber. Sensitivity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.89 and 0.94 for cold test, 0.84 and 0.87 for the heat tests, and 0.75 for electrical pulp test and the specificity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.91 and 0.93 for the cold tests, 0.86 and 0.84 for the heat tests, and 0.90 for electrical pulp test. The NPVs were 0.91 and 0.96 for the cold tests, 0.89 and 0.91 for the heat tests, and 0.84 for electrical pulp test. The positive predictive values were 0.89 and 0.90 for the cold tests, 0.80 and 0.79 for the heat tests and 0.88 for electrical pulp test. The highest accuracy (0.9393) was observed with cold test (icy spray). The cold test done with icy spray was the most accurate method for sensitivity testing.

Usefulness of enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for screening of anti HIV antibodies in urinary specimens: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Sahni, A K; Nagendra, A; Roy, Partha; Patrikar, S

2014-07-01

Standard HIV testing is done using serum or plasma. FDA approved ELISA to screen urine for IgG antibodies to HIV-1 in 1996. It is a simple, noninvasive test and is appropriate for developing countries where health care personnel may not be professionally trained or where clean needles for drawing blood may not always be available. 436 individuals with high-risk behavior and strong clinical suspicion of HIV infection were screened for IgG antibodies to HIV-1 in urine by ELISA. Urine HIV testing was performed by enzyme immunoassay, at the ongoing Voluntary Confidential Counseling and Testing Center (VCCTC) at a large tertiary care microbiology lab. The individuals enrolled for the study had high-risk exposure to the virus and majorities were from a state with a high incidence of HIV infection. In all individuals, both serum and urine were tested for IgG antibodies to HIV-1. Overall, 135 individuals (30.96%) were HIV-positive, of whom 96 (71%) had never previously tested positive; 87% of those who tested positive received their results, and most were referred for medical care. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of HIV-1 urine ELISA test kit were determined. Sensitivity was found to be 89.6%; 95% CI [82.9-94.0], specificity 97.3%; 95% CI [94.6-98.8], positive predictive value 93.8%; 95% CI [87.8-97.1] and negative predictive value 95.4%; 95% CI [92.3-97.4]. Efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of the urine-based screening for HIV-1 test kits were excellent as compared to the reference test.

Prevalidation of an Acute Inhalation Toxicity Test Using the EpiAirway In Vitro Human Airway Model

PubMed Central

Jackson, George R.; Maione, Anna G.; Klausner, Mitchell

2018-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Knowledge of acute inhalation toxicity potential is important for establishing safe use of chemicals and consumer products. Inhalation toxicity testing and classification procedures currently accepted within worldwide government regulatory systems rely primarily on tests conducted in animals. The goal of the current work was to develop and prevalidate a nonanimal (in vitro) test for determining acute inhalation toxicity using the EpiAirway™ in vitro human airway model as a potential alternative for currently accepted animal tests. Materials and Methods: The in vitro test method exposes EpiAirway tissues to test chemicals for 3 hours, followed by measurement of tissue viability as the test endpoint. Fifty-nine chemicals covering a broad range of toxicity classes, chemical structures, and physical properties were evaluated. The in vitro toxicity data were utilized to establish a prediction model to classify the chemicals into categories corresponding to the currently accepted Globally Harmonized System (GHS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) system. Results: The EpiAirway prediction model identified in vivo rat-based GHS Acute Inhalation Toxicity Category 1–2 and EPA Acute Inhalation Toxicity Category I–II chemicals with 100% sensitivity and specificity of 43.1% and 50.0%, for GHS and EPA acute inhalation toxicity systems, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the EpiAirway prediction model for identifying GHS specific target organ toxicity-single exposure (STOT-SE) Category 1 human toxicants were 75.0% and 56.5%, respectively. Corrosivity and electrophilic and oxidative reactivity appear to be the predominant mechanisms of toxicity for the most highly toxic chemicals. Conclusions: These results indicate that the EpiAirway test is a promising alternative to the currently accepted animal tests for acute inhalation toxicity. PMID:29904643

Prevalidation of an Acute Inhalation Toxicity Test Using the EpiAirway In Vitro Human Airway Model.

PubMed

Jackson, George R; Maione, Anna G; Klausner, Mitchell; Hayden, Patrick J

2018-06-01

Introduction: Knowledge of acute inhalation toxicity potential is important for establishing safe use of chemicals and consumer products. Inhalation toxicity testing and classification procedures currently accepted within worldwide government regulatory systems rely primarily on tests conducted in animals. The goal of the current work was to develop and prevalidate a nonanimal ( in vitro ) test for determining acute inhalation toxicity using the EpiAirway™ in vitro human airway model as a potential alternative for currently accepted animal tests. Materials and Methods: The in vitro test method exposes EpiAirway tissues to test chemicals for 3 hours, followed by measurement of tissue viability as the test endpoint. Fifty-nine chemicals covering a broad range of toxicity classes, chemical structures, and physical properties were evaluated. The in vitro toxicity data were utilized to establish a prediction model to classify the chemicals into categories corresponding to the currently accepted Globally Harmonized System (GHS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) system. Results: The EpiAirway prediction model identified in vivo rat-based GHS Acute Inhalation Toxicity Category 1-2 and EPA Acute Inhalation Toxicity Category I-II chemicals with 100% sensitivity and specificity of 43.1% and 50.0%, for GHS and EPA acute inhalation toxicity systems, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the EpiAirway prediction model for identifying GHS specific target organ toxicity-single exposure (STOT-SE) Category 1 human toxicants were 75.0% and 56.5%, respectively. Corrosivity and electrophilic and oxidative reactivity appear to be the predominant mechanisms of toxicity for the most highly toxic chemicals. Conclusions: These results indicate that the EpiAirway test is a promising alternative to the currently accepted animal tests for acute inhalation toxicity.

Comparison of serum specific IgE with skin prick test in the diagnosis of allergy in Malaysia.

PubMed

Asha'ari, Z A; Suhaimi, Y; Yusof, R A; Rushdan, I; Maraina, C H C

2011-08-01

We compared a newer serum specific IgE (SSIgE) test with skin prick testing (SPT) in the diagnosis of allergy in Malaysia. Ninety newly diagnosed allergic patients were enrolled for both tests. Using SPT as a clinical gold standard, the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for SSIgE for each of the common allergens tested. The highest positive results for both SPT and SSIgE were for house dust mite and cat. Compared to SPT, SSIgE showed better sensitivity but poorer specificity, low PPV and good NPV in all the allergens tested. Significant positive correlation was seen between the diameter of wheal and flare of SPT and the SSIgE results.

Testing key predictions of the associative account of mirror neurons in humans using multivariate pattern analysis.

PubMed

Oosterhof, Nikolaas N; Wiggett, Alison J; Cross, Emily S

2014-04-01

Cook et al. overstate the evidence supporting their associative account of mirror neurons in humans: most studies do not address a key property, action-specificity that generalizes across the visual and motor domains. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of neuroimaging data can address this concern, and we illustrate how MVPA can be used to test key predictions of their account.

Furosemide/Fludrocortisone Test and Clinical Parameters to Diagnose Incomplete Distal Renal Tubular Acidosis in Kidney Stone Formers.

PubMed

Dhayat, Nasser A; Gradwell, Michael W; Pathare, Ganesh; Anderegg, Manuel; Schneider, Lisa; Luethi, David; Mattmann, Cedric; Moe, Orson W; Vogt, Bruno; Fuster, Daniel G

2017-09-07

Incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis is a well known cause of calcareous nephrolithiasis but the prevalence is unknown, mostly due to lack of accepted diagnostic tests and criteria. The ammonium chloride test is considered as gold standard for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis, but the furosemide/fludrocortisone test was recently proposed as an alternative. Because of the lack of rigorous comparative studies, the validity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test in stone formers remains unknown. In addition, the performance of conventional, nonprovocative parameters in predicting incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis has not been studied. We conducted a prospective study in an unselected cohort of 170 stone formers that underwent sequential ammonium chloride and furosemide/fludrocortisone testing. Using the ammonium chloride test as gold standard, the prevalence of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis was 8%. Sensitivity and specificity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test were 77% and 85%, respectively, yielding a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 98%. Testing of several nonprovocative clinical parameters in the prediction of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis revealed fasting morning urinary pH and plasma potassium as the most discriminative parameters. The combination of a fasting morning urinary threshold pH <5.3 with a plasma potassium threshold >3.8 mEq/L yielded a negative predictive value of 98% with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 77% for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis. The furosemide/fludrocortisone test can be used for incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis screening in stone formers, but an abnormal furosemide/fludrocortisone test result needs confirmation by ammonium chloride testing. Our data furthermore indicate that incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis can reliably be excluded in stone formers by use of nonprovocative clinical parameters. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

Assessment of HPV-mRNA test to predict recurrent disease in patients previously treated for CIN 2/3.

PubMed

Frega, Antonio; Sesti, Francesco; Lombardi, Danila; Votano, Sergio; Sopracordevole, Francesco; Catalano, Angelica; Milazzo, Giusi Natalia; Lombardo, Riccardo; Assorgi, Chiara; Olivola, Sara; Chiusuri, Valentina; Ricciardi, Enzo; French, Deborah; Moscarini, Massimo

2014-05-01

The use of HPV-mRNA test in the follow-up after LEEP is still matter of debate, with regard to its capacity of prediction relapse. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the reliability of HPV-mRNA test to predict the residual and recurrent disease, and its accuracy in the follow-up of patients treated for CIN 2/3. Multicenter prospective cohort study. Patients who underwent LEEP after a biopsy diagnosing CIN 2/3 were followed at 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Each check up included cytology, colposcopy, HPV-DNA test (LiPA) and HPV-mRNA test (PreTect HPV Proofer Kit NorChip). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), of HPV-DNA test and HPV-mRNA test to predict relapse, recurrent and residual disease. Using multiple logistic regression, the statistical significant variables as assessed in univariate analysis were entered and investigated as predictors of relapse disease. The mRNA-test in predicting a residual disease had a sensitivity of 52% and a NPV of 91%, whereas DNA-test had 100% and 100%, respectively. On the contrary in the prediction of recurrent disease mRNA-test had a sensitivity and a NPV of 73.5% and 97%, whereas DNA-test had 44% and 93%. On the multivariate analysis, age, cytology, HPV DNA and mRNA test achieved the role of independent predictors of relapse. HPV-mRNA test has a higher sensitivity and a higher NPV in predicting recurrent disease, for this reason it should be used in the follow-up of patients treated with LEEP for CIN 2/3 in order to individualize the timing of check up. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of increased thyroid activity during pertechnetate scintigraphy by subcutaneous injection for diagnosing hyperthyroidism in cats.

PubMed

Page, Richard B; Scrivani, Peter V; Dykes, Nathan L; Erb, Hollis N; Hobbs, Jeff M

2006-01-01

Our purpose was to determine the accuracy of increased thyroid activity for diagnosing hyperthyroidism in cats suspected of having that disease during pertechnetate scintigraphy using subcutaneous rather than intravenous radioisotope administration. Increased thyroid activity was determined by two methods: the thyroid:salivary ratio (T:S) and visual inspection. These assessments were made on the ventral scintigram of the head and neck. Scintigraphy was performed by injecting sodium pertechnetate (111 MBq, SQ) in the right-dorsal-lumbar region; static-acquisition images were obtained 20 min after injection. We used 49 cats; 34 (69%) had hyperthyroidism based on serum-chemistry analysis. Using a Wilcoxon's rank-sum test, a significant difference (P < 0.0001) was detected in the T:S between cats with and without hyperthyroidism. Using a decision criterion of 2.0 for the T:S, the test accurately predicted hyperthyroidism in 32/34 cats (sensitivity, 94%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 85-100%) and correctly predicted that hyperthyroidism was absent in 15/15 cats (specificity, 100%; CI, 97-100%). Using visual inspection, the test accurately predicted hyperthyroidism in 34/34 cats (sensitivity, 100%; CI, 99-100%) and correctly predicted that hyperthyroidism was absent in 12/15 cats (specificity, 80%; CI, 56-100%). The positive and negative predictive values were high for a wide range of prevalence of hyperthyroidism. And, the test had excellent agreement within and between examiners. Therefore, detecting increased thyroid activity during pertechnetate scintigraphy by subcutaneous injection is an accurate and reproducible test for feline hyperthyroidism.

Prediction of subcellular localization of eukaryotic proteins using position-specific profiles and neural network with weighted inputs.

PubMed

Zou, Lingyun; Wang, Zhengzhi; Huang, Jiaomin

2007-12-01

Subcellular location is one of the key biological characteristics of proteins. Position-specific profiles (PSP) have been introduced as important characteristics of proteins in this article. In this study, to obtain position-specific profiles, the Position Specific Iterative-Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (PSI-BLAST) has been used to search for protein sequences in a database. Position-specific scoring matrices are extracted from the profiles as one class of characteristics. Four-part amino acid compositions and 1st-7th order dipeptide compositions have also been calculated as the other two classes of characteristics. Therefore, twelve characteristic vectors are extracted from each of the protein sequences. Next, the characteristic vectors are weighed by a simple weighing function and inputted into a BP neural network predictor named PSP-Weighted Neural Network (PSP-WNN). The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is employed to adjust the weight matrices and thresholds during the network training instead of the error back propagation algorithm. With a jackknife test on the RH2427 dataset, PSP-WNN has achieved a higher overall prediction accuracy of 88.4% rather than the prediction results by the general BP neural network, Markov model, and fuzzy k-nearest neighbors algorithm on this dataset. In addition, the prediction performance of PSP-WNN has been evaluated with a five-fold cross validation test on the PK7579 dataset and the prediction results have been consistently better than those of the previous method on the basis of several support vector machines, using compositions of both amino acids and amino acid pairs. These results indicate that PSP-WNN is a powerful tool for subcellular localization prediction. At the end of the article, influences on prediction accuracy using different weighting proportions among three characteristic vector categories have been discussed. An appropriate proportion is considered by increasing the prediction accuracy.

Efficacy of functional movement screening for predicting injuries in coast guard cadets.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; Cosio-Lima, Ludimila M; Reynolds, Katy L; Shumway, Richard S

2015-05-01

Functional movement screening (FMS) examines the ability of individuals to perform highly specific movements with the aim of identifying individuals who have functional limitations or asymmetries. It is assumed that individuals who can more effectively accomplish the required movements have a lower injury risk. This study determined the ability of FMS to predict injuries in the United States Coast Guard (USCG) cadets. Seven hundred seventy male and 275 female USCG freshman cadets were administered the 7 FMS tests before the physically intense 8-week Summer Warfare Annual Basic (SWAB) training. Physical training-related injuries were recorded during SWAB training. Cumulative injury incidence was calculated at various FMS cutpoint scores. The ability of the FMS total score to predict injuries was examined by calculating sensitivity and specificity. Determination of the FMS cutpoint that maximized specificity and sensitivity was determined from the Youden's index (sensitivity + specificity - 1). For men, FMS scores ≤ 12 were associated with higher injury risk than scores >12; for women, FMS scores ≤ 15 were associated with higher injury risk than scores >15. The Youden's Index indicated that the optimal FMS cutpoint was ≤ 11 for men (22% sensitivity, 87% specificity) and ≤ 14 for women (60% sensitivity, 61% specificity). Functional movement screening demonstrated moderate prognostic accuracy for determining injury risk among female Coast Guard cadets but relatively low accuracy among male cadets. Attempting to predict injury risk based on the FMS test seems to have some limited promise based on the present and past investigations.

Blood DNA methylation biomarkers predict clinical reactivity in food-sensitized infants.

PubMed

Martino, David; Dang, Thanh; Sexton-Oates, Alexandra; Prescott, Susan; Tang, Mimi L K; Dharmage, Shyamali; Gurrin, Lyle; Koplin, Jennifer; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Allen, Katrina J; Saffery, Richard

2015-05-01

The diagnosis of food allergy (FA) can be challenging because approximately half of food-sensitized patients are asymptomatic. Current diagnostic tests are excellent makers of sensitization but poor predictors of clinical reactivity. Thus oral food challenges (OFCs) are required to determine a patient's risk of reactivity. We sought to discover genomic biomarkers of clinical FA with utility for predicting food challenge outcomes. Genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) profiling was performed on blood mononuclear cells from volunteers who had undergone objective OFCs, concurrent skin prick tests, and specific IgE tests. Fifty-eight food-sensitized patients (aged 11-15 months) were assessed, half of whom were clinically reactive. Thirteen nonallergic control subjects were also assessed. Reproducibility was assessed in an additional 48 samples by using methylation data from an independent population of patients with clinical FA. Using a supervised learning approach, we discovered a DNAm signature of 96 CpG sites that predict clinical outcomes. Diagnostic scores were derived from these 96 methylation sites, and cutoffs were determined in a sensitivity analysis. Methylation biomarkers outperformed allergen-specific IgE and skin prick tests for predicting OFC outcomes. FA status was correctly predicted in the replication cohort with an accuracy of 79.2%. DNAm biomarkers with clinical utility for predicting food challenge outcomes are readily detectable in blood. The development of this technology in detailed follow-up studies will yield highly innovative diagnostic assays. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Typical intellectual engagement, Big Five personality traits, approaches to learning and cognitive ability predictors of academic performance.

PubMed

Furnham, Adrian; Monsen, Jeremy; Ahmetoglu, Gorkan

2009-12-01

Both ability (measured by power tests) and non-ability (measured by preference tests) individual difference measures predict academic school outcomes. These include fluid as well as crystalized intelligence, personality traits, and learning styles. This paper examines the incremental validity of five psychometric tests and the sex and age of pupils to predict their General Certificate in Secondary Education (GCSE) test results. The aim was to determine how much variance ability and non-ability tests can account for in predicting specific GCSE exam scores. The sample comprised 212 British schoolchildren. Of these, 123 were females. Their mean age was 15.8 years (SD 0.98 years). Pupils completed three self-report tests: the Neuroticism-Extroversion-Openness-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) which measures the 'Big Five' personality traits, (Costa & McCrae, 1992); the Typical Intellectual Engagement Scale (Goff & Ackerman, 1992) and a measure of learning style, the Study Process Questionnaire (SPQ; Biggs, 1987). They also completed two ability tests: the Wonderlic Personnel Test (Wonderlic, 1992) a short measure of general intelligence and the General Knowledge Test (Irving, Cammock, & Lynn, 2001) a measure of crystallized intelligence. Six months later they took their (10th grade) GCSE exams comprising four 'core' compulsory exams as well as a number of specific elective subjects. Correlational analysis suggested that intelligence was the best predictors of school results. Preference test measures accounted for relatively little variance. Regressions indicated that over 50% of the variance in school exams for English (Literature and Language) and Maths and Science combined could be accounted for by these individual difference factors. Data from less than an hour's worth of testing pupils could predict school exam results 6 months later. These tests could, therefore, be used to reliably inform important decisions about how pupils are taught.

Longer-Term Investigation of the Value of 18F-FDG-PET and Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Predicting the Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease: A Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Inui, Yoshitaka; Ito, Kengo; Kato, Takashi

2017-01-01

The value of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting conversion of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in longer-term is unclear. To evaluate longer-term prediction of MCI to AD conversion using 18F-FDG-PET and MRI in a multicenter study. One-hundred and fourteen patients with MCI were followed for 5 years. They underwent clinical and neuropsychological examinations, 18F-FDG-PET, and MRI at baseline. PET images were visually classified into predefined dementia patterns. PET scores were calculated as a semi quantitative index. For structural MRI, z-scores in medial temporal area were calculated by automated volume-based morphometry (VBM). Overall, 72% patients with amnestic MCI progressed to AD during the 5-year follow-up. The diagnostic accuracy of PET scores over 5 years was 60% with 53% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Visual interpretation of PET images predicted conversion to AD with an overall 82% diagnostic accuracy, 94% sensitivity, and 53% specificity. The accuracy of VBM analysis presented little fluctuation through 5 years and it was highest (73%) at the 5-year follow-up, with 79% sensitivity and 63% specificity. The best performance (87.9% diagnostic accuracy, 89.8% sensitivity, and 82.4% specificity) was with a combination identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis that included PET visual interpretation, educational level, and neuropsychological tests as predictors. 18F-FDG-PET visual assessment showed high performance for predicting conversion to AD from MCI, particularly in combination with neuropsychological tests. PET scores showed high diagnostic specificity. Structural MRI focused on the medial temporal area showed stable predictive value throughout the 5-year course.

Can early host responses to mycobacterial infection predict eventual disease outcomes?

PubMed

de Silva, Kumudika; Begg, Douglas J; Plain, Karren M; Purdie, Auriol C; Kawaji, Satoko; Dhand, Navneet K; Whittington, Richard J

2013-11-01

Diagnostic tests used for Johne's disease in sheep either have poor sensitivity and specificity or only detect disease in later stages of infection. Predicting which of the infected sheep are likely to become infectious later in life is currently not feasible and continues to be a major hindrance in disease control. We conducted this longitudinal study to investigate if a suite of diagnostic tests conducted in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) exposed lambs at 4 months post infection can accurately predict their clinical status at 12 months post infection. We tracked cellular and humoral responses and quantity of MAP shedding for up to 12 months post challenge in 20 controls and 37 exposed sheep. Infection was defined at necropsy by tissue culture and disease spectrum by lesion type. Data were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models and a subset of variables from the earliest period post inoculation (4 months) was selected for predicting disease outcomes later on (12 months). Sensitivity and specificity of tests and their combinations in series and parallel were determined. Early elevation in faecal MAP DNA quantity and a lower interferon gamma (IFNγ) response were significantly associated with sheep becoming infectious as well as progressing to severe disease. Conversely, early low faecal MAP DNA and higher interleukin-10 responses were significantly associated with an exposed animal developing protective immunity. Combination of early elevated faecal MAP DNA or lower IFNγ response had the highest sensitivity (75%) and specificity (81%) for identifying sheep that would become infectious. Collectively, these results highlight the potential for combined test interpretation to aid in the early prediction of sheep susceptibility to MAP infection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical Utility of Urinary Cytology to Detect BK Viral Nephropathy.

PubMed

Nankivell, Brian J; Renthawa, Jasveen; Jeoffreys, Neisha; Kable, Kathy; O'Connell, Philip J; Chapman, Jeremy R; Wong, Germaine; Sharma, Raghwa N

2015-08-01

Reactivation of BK polyoma virus can result in destructive viral allograft nephropathy (BKVAN) with limited treatment options. Screening programs using surrogate markers of viral replication are important preventive strategies, guiding immunosuppression reduction. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic test performance of urinary decoy cells and urinary SV40T immunochemistry of exfoliated cells, to screen for BKVAN, (defined by reference histology with SV40 immunohistochemistry, n = 704 samples), compared with quantitative viremia, from 211 kidney and 141 kidney-pancreas transplant recipients. The disease prevalence of BKVAN was 2.6%. Decoy cells occurred in 95 of 704 (13.5%) samples, with a sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 88.6%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 11.7%, and negative predictive value of 98.5% to predict histologically proven BKVAN. Quantification of decoy cells improved the PPV to 32.1% (10 ≥ cells threshold). Immunohistochemical staining of urinary exfoliated cells for SV40T improved sensitivity to 85.7%, detecting atypical or degenerate infected cells (specificity of 92.3% and PPV of 33.3%), but was hampered by technical failures. Viremia occurred in 90 of 704 (12.8%) with sensitivity of 96.3%, specificity of 90.3%, PPV of 31.5%, and negative predictive value of 99.8%. The receiver-operator curve performance of quantitative viremia surpassed decoy cells (area under the curve of 0.95 and 0.79, respectively, P = 0.0018 for differences). Combining decoy cell and BK viremia in a diagnostic matrix improved prediction of BKVAN and diagnostic risk stratification, especially for high-level positive results. Although quantified decoy cells are acceptable surrogate markers of BK viral replication with unexceptional test performances, quantitative viremia displayed superior test characteristics and is suggested as the screening test of choice.

Automatic EMC test system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasai, R.; Abe, T.; Sano, T.

Automated electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) tests for spacecraft hardware are described. EMC tests are divided into three categories: compensating measurement and calibration errors, comparison of test results with specification, and fine-frequency searching using predictive interference analysis. The automated system features an RF receiver and transmitter, a control system, and antennas. Trials are run with conducted and radiated emissions and conducted and radiated susceptibility over a frequency range of 0.1-40 GHz with narrow, broad and random broad band noise. The system meets military specifications 1541, 461, and 462.

Predicting Vasovagal Syncope from Heart Rate and Blood Pressure: A Prospective Study in 140 Subjects.

PubMed

Virag, Nathalie; Erickson, Mark; Taraborrelli, Patricia; Vetter, Rolf; Lim, Phang Boon; Sutton, Richard

2018-04-28

We developed a vasovagal syncope (VVS) prediction algorithm for use during head-up tilt with simultaneous analysis of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). We previously tested this algorithm retrospectively in 1155 subjects, showing sensitivity 95%, specificity 93% and median prediction time of 59s. This study was prospective, single center, on 140 subjects to evaluate this VVS prediction algorithm and assess if retrospective results were reproduced and clinically relevant. Primary endpoint was VVS prediction: sensitivity and specificity >80%. In subjects, referred for 60° head-up tilt (Italian protocol), non-invasive HR and SBP were supplied to the VVS prediction algorithm: simultaneous analysis of RR intervals, SBP trends and their variability represented by low-frequency power generated cumulative risk which was compared with a predetermined VVS risk threshold. When cumulative risk exceeded threshold, an alert was generated. Prediction time was duration between first alert and syncope. Of 140 subjects enrolled, data was usable for 134. Of 83 tilt+ve (61.9%), 81 VVS events were correctly predicted and of 51 tilt-ve subjects (38.1%), 45 were correctly identified as negative by the algorithm. Resulting algorithm performance was sensitivity 97.6%, specificity 88.2%, meeting primary endpoint. Mean VVS prediction time was 2min 26s±3min16s with median 1min 25s. Using only HR and HR variability (without SBP) the mean prediction time reduced to 1min34s±1min45s with median 1min13s. The VVS prediction algorithm, is clinically-relevant tool and could offer applications including providing a patient alarm, shortening tilt-test time, or triggering pacing intervention in implantable devices. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Harnessing the power of personality assessment: subjective assessment predicts behaviour in horses.

PubMed

Ijichi, Carrie; Collins, Lisa M; Creighton, Emma; Elwood, Robert W

2013-06-01

Objective assessment of animal personality is typically time consuming, requiring the repeated measure of behavioural responses. By contrast, subjective assessment of personality allows information to be collected quickly by experienced caregivers. However, subjective assessment must predict behaviour to be valid. Comparisons of subjective assessments and behaviour have been made but often with methodological weaknesses and thus, limited success. Here we test the validity of a subjective assessment against a battery of behaviour tests in 146 horses (Equus caballus). Our first aim was to determine if subjective personality assessment could predict behaviour during behaviour testing. We made specific a priori predictions for how subjectively measured personality should relate to behaviour testing. We found that Extroversion predicted time to complete a handling test and refusal behaviour during this test. It also predicted minimum distance to a novel object. Neuroticism predicted how reactive an individual was to a sudden visual stimulus but not how quickly it recovered from this. Agreeableness did not predict any behaviour during testing. There were several unpredicted correlations between subjective measures and behaviour tests which we explore further. Our second aim was to combine data from the subjective assessment and behaviour tests to gain a more comprehensive understanding of personality. We found that the combination of methods provides new insights into horse behaviour. Furthermore, our data are consistent with the idea of horses showing different coping styles, a novel finding for this species. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical prediction of Gardnerella vaginalis in general practice

PubMed Central

O'Dowd, T.C.; West, R.R.

1987-01-01

In a study of 162 women with vaginal symptoms the clinical features of increased discharge, yellow discharge, 'high cheese' odour and pH greater than 5 were statistically strongly associated with the presence of Gardnerella vaginalis, confirmed by microbiological culture. The sensitivities and specificities of these clinical tests, although not as high as those of previously described sideroom tests using the amine test and microscopy for 'clue cells' nevertheless allow the clinician to predict G. vaginalis reliably and initiate treatment at first consultation. PMID:3499508

Insensitivity of the "Romberg test of standing balance on firm and compliant support surfaces" to the results of caloric and VEMP tests.

PubMed

Jacobson, Gary P; McCaslin, Devin L; Piker, Erin G; Gruenwald, Jill; Grantham, Sarah; Tegel, Lauren

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of the Romberg Test of Standing Balance on Firm and Compliant Support Surfaces (RTSBFCSS) for the identification of patients with vestibular system impairments affecting the horizontal semicircular canal, saccule, and/or inferior and superior vestibular nerves. The RTSBFCSS was developed for the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and was used recently to estimate the numbers of individuals aged 40 yr or older with vestibular system impairments among the general population of the United States. A retrospective analysis of the medical records of 103 consecutive patients aged 40 yr or older (mean age 59 ± 12 yr, 71 females) who had undergone vestibular assessment at the Balance Disorders Clinic at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Patients with complete electro- or videonystagmography testing, cervical vestibular evoked myogenic potential (cVEMP) testing, and the RTSBFCSS screening test were included in the analysis. A series of 2 × 2 tables were created that represented the number of "true positives," "true negatives," "false positives," and "false negatives" of the RTSBFCSS under conditions where the caloric test was abnormal and then separately where the cVEMP test was abnormal. The data were analyzed in a manner such that sensitivity, specificity, and both positive and negative predictive value of the RTSBFCSS could be calculated. When the caloric test was used as the criterion standard and the subject selection criteria in the NHANES study were used (i.e., subjects who were able to maintain postural stability for trials 1-3 of the RTSBFCSS; N = 45), the sensitivity and specificity of the RTSBFCSS to impairment of the horizontal semicircular canal or superior vestibular nerve were 55% and 64%, respectively, yielding positive and negative predictive values of 55% and 64%, respectively. When all patients aged 40 yr or older were evaluated (N = 103), the sensitivity and specificity were 61% and 58%, respectively, yielding positive and negative predictive values of 39% and 78%, respectively. Using the cVEMP test as the criterion standard for the detection of impairment affecting the saccule and/or inferior vestibular nerve did not improve the performance criteria of the NHANES screening measure. The RTSBFCSS should not be used as a screening measure for vestibular impairment.

Stress and Specificity: Reply to Miller (2009)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denson, Thomas F.; Spanovic, Marija; Miller, Norman

2009-01-01

T. F. Denson, M. Spanovic, and N. Miller (2009) meta-analytically tested the hypotheses that specific appraisals and emotions would predict cortisol and immune responses to laboratory stressors and emotion inductions. Although the cortisol data supported the integrated specificity hypothesis, G. E. Miller (2009) raised questions concerning the…

The prediction of human exons by oligonucleotide composition and discriminant analysis of spliceable open reading frames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solovyev, V.V.; Salamov, A.A.; Lawrence, C.B.

1994-12-31

Discriminant analysis is applied to the problem of recognition 5`-, internal and 3`-exons in human DNA sequences. Specific recognition functions were developed for revealing exons of particular types. The method based on a splice site prediction algorithm that uses the linear Fisher discriminant to combine the information about significant triplet frequencies of various functional parts of splice site regions and preferences of oligonucleotide in protein coding and nation regions. The accuracy of our splice site recognition function is about 97%. A discriminant function for 5`-exon prediction includes hexanucleotide composition of upstream region, triplet composition around the ATG codon, ORF codingmore » potential, donor splice site potential and composition of downstream introit region. For internal exon prediction, we combine in a discriminant function the characteristics describing the 5`- intron region, donor splice site, coding region, acceptor splice site and Y-intron region for each open reading frame flanked by GT and AG base pairs. The accuracy of precise internal exon recognition on a test set of 451 exon and 246693 pseudoexon sequences is 77% with a specificity of 79% and a level of pseudoexon ORF prediction of 99.96%. The recognition quality computed at the level of individual nucleotides is 89%, for exon sequences and 98% for intron sequences. A discriminant function for 3`-exon prediction includes octanucleolide composition of upstream nation region, triplet composition around the stop codon, ORF coding potential, acceptor splice site potential and hexanucleotide composition of downstream region. We unite these three discriminant functions in exon predicting program FEX (find exons). FEX exactly predicts 70% of 1016 exons from the test of 181 complete genes with specificity 73%, and 89% exons are exactly or partially predicted. On the average, 85% of nucleotides were predicted accurately with specificity 91%.« less

Selective testing strategies for diagnosing group A streptococcal infection in children with pharyngitis: a systematic review and prospective multicentre external validation study

PubMed Central

Cohen, Jérémie F.; Cohen, Robert; Levy, Corinne; Thollot, Franck; Benani, Mohamed; Bidet, Philippe; Chalumeau, Martin

2015-01-01

Background: Several clinical prediction rules for diagnosing group A streptococcal infection in children with pharyngitis are available. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of rules-based selective testing strategies in a prospective cohort of children with pharyngitis. Methods: We identified clinical prediction rules through a systematic search of MEDLINE and Embase (1975–2014), which we then validated in a prospective cohort involving French children who presented with pharyngitis during a 1-year period (2010–2011). We diagnosed infection with group A streptococcus using two throat swabs: one obtained for a rapid antigen detection test (StreptAtest, Dectrapharm) and one obtained for culture (reference standard). We validated rules-based selective testing strategies as follows: low risk of group A streptococcal infection, no further testing or antibiotic therapy needed; intermediate risk of infection, rapid antigen detection for all patients and antibiotic therapy for those with a positive test result; and high risk of infection, empiric antibiotic treatment. Results: We identified 8 clinical prediction rules, 6 of which could be prospectively validated. Sensitivity and specificity of rules-based selective testing strategies ranged from 66% (95% confidence interval [CI] 61–72) to 94% (95% CI 92–97) and from 40% (95% CI 35–45) to 88% (95% CI 85–91), respectively. Use of rapid antigen detection testing following the clinical prediction rule ranged from 24% (95% CI 21–27) to 86% (95% CI 84–89). None of the rules-based selective testing strategies achieved our diagnostic accuracy target (sensitivity and specificity > 85%). Interpretation: Rules-based selective testing strategies did not show sufficient diagnostic accuracy in this study population. The relevance of clinical prediction rules for determining which children with pharyngitis should undergo a rapid antigen detection test remains questionable. PMID:25487666

Experimental identification of specificity determinants in the domain linker of a LacI/GalR protein: bioinformatics-based predictions generate true positives and false negatives.

PubMed

Meinhardt, Sarah; Swint-Kruse, Liskin

2008-12-01

In protein families, conserved residues often contribute to a common general function, such as DNA-binding. However, unique attributes for each homolog (e.g. recognition of alternative DNA sequences) must arise from variation in other functionally-important positions. The locations of these "specificity determinant" positions are obscured amongst the background of varied residues that do not make significant contributions to either structure or function. To isolate specificity determinants, a number of bioinformatics algorithms have been developed. When applied to the LacI/GalR family of transcription regulators, several specificity determinants are predicted in the 18 amino acids that link the DNA-binding and regulatory domains. However, results from alternative algorithms are only in partial agreement with each other. Here, we experimentally evaluate these predictions using an engineered repressor comprising the LacI DNA-binding domain, the LacI linker, and the GalR regulatory domain (LLhG). "Wild-type" LLhG has altered DNA specificity and weaker lacO(1) repression compared to LacI or a similar LacI:PurR chimera. Next, predictions of linker specificity determinants were tested, using amino acid substitution and in vivo repression assays to assess functional change. In LLhG, all predicted sites are specificity determinants, as well as three sites not predicted by any algorithm. Strategies are suggested for diminishing the number of false negative predictions. Finally, individual substitutions at LLhG specificity determinants exhibited a broad range of functional changes that are not predicted by bioinformatics algorithms. Results suggest that some variants have altered affinity for DNA, some have altered allosteric response, and some appear to have changed specificity for alternative DNA ligands.

Testing the predictive power of cognitive atypicalities in autistic children: evidence from a 3-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Pellicano, Elizabeth

2013-08-01

This follow-up study investigated the predictive power of early cognitive atypicalities. Specifically, it examined whether early individual differences in specific cognitive skills, including theory of mind, executive function, and central coherence, could uniquely account for variation in autistic children's behaviors-social communication, repetitive behaviors, and interests and insistence on sameness-at follow-up. Thirty-seven cognitively able children with an autism spectrum condition were assessed on tests tapping verbal and nonverbal ability, theory of mind (false-belief prediction), executive function (planning ability, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control), and central coherence (local processing) at intake and their behavioral functioning (social communication, repetitive behaviors and interests, insistence on sameness) 3 years later. Individual differences in early executive but not theory of mind skills predicted variation in children's social communication. Individual differences in children's early executive function also predicted the degree of repetitive behaviors and interests at follow-up. There were no predictive relationships between early central coherence and children's insistence on sameness. These findings challenge the notion that distinct cognitive atypicalities map on to specific behavioral features of autism. Instead, early variation in executive function plays a key role in helping to shape autistic children's emerging behaviors, including their social communication and repetitive behaviors and interests. © 2013 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Administrative database code accuracy did not vary notably with changes in disease prevalence.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; English, Shane; Austin, Peter C

2016-11-01

Previous mathematical analyses of diagnostic tests based on the categorization of a continuous measure have found that test sensitivity and specificity varies significantly by disease prevalence. This study determined if the accuracy of diagnostic codes varied by disease prevalence. We used data from two previous studies in which the true status of renal disease and primary subarachnoid hemorrhage, respectively, had been determined. In multiple stratified random samples from the two previous studies having varying disease prevalence, we measured the accuracy of diagnostic codes for each disease using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. Diagnostic code sensitivity and specificity did not change notably within clinically sensible disease prevalence. In contrast, positive and negative predictive values changed significantly with disease prevalence. Disease prevalence had no important influence on the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic codes in administrative databases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of the volume-viscosity swallow test for screening dysphagia in subacute stroke patients in rehabilitation income.

PubMed

Guillén-Solà, Anna; Marco, Ester; Martínez-Orfila, Joan; Donaire Mejías, M Fernanda; Depolo Passalacqua, Marina; Duarte, Esther; Escalada, Ferran

2013-01-01

Swallowing disorders affect up to 35-85% of patients with stroke. Dysphagia complications can lead to malnutrition, dehydration, bronchoaspirative pneumonia and death, and have impact on health care costs. To evaluate the clinical screening capacity of the Volume Viscosity Swallow Test (V-VST) for oropharyngeal dysphagia and aspiration in a homogeneous stroke patient sample. Cohort study of 52 stroke patients in a subacute phase. Piecemeal deglutition and oropharyngeal residue were considered signs of impaired efficacy and cough, fall in oxygen saturation and voice changes, signs of impaired safety. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, accuracy and likelihood ratios were calculated for V-VST results and compared with those of videofluoroscopy (VFS), the gold standard for studies on swallowing disorders. The V-VST is a highly sensitive and specific test to detect aspiration with sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 71.4%; negative predictive value was 92.6%; accuracy index was 0.74. Sensitivity and specificity for penetration were 34.3% and 70.6%, respectively; accuracy was 32%. The V-VST is low in cost, easy to use and very sensitive, meeting the requirements of oropharyngeal dysphagia and aspiration screening test in subacute stroke patients.

Reagent strip testing is not sensitive for the screening of asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women.

PubMed

Lumbiganon, Pisake; Chongsomchai, Chompilas; Chumworathayee, Bundit; Thinkhamrop, Jadsada

2002-08-01

The objective of the study was to assess the diagnostic performance of the reagent strip in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women using urine culture as a gold standard. This study comprised 204 asymptomatic pregnant women who attended their first antenatal care at Srinagarind Hospital, Khon Kaen University from April 1, 1999 to June 30, 1999. Women with symptoms of urinary tract infection, antibiotic treatment within the previous 7 days, pregnancy-induced hypertension, bleeding per vagina and history of urinary tract diseases were excluded. Urine specimens were collected by clean catched midstream urine technique for urinalysis, reagent strip test and urine culture. Diagnostic performance of reagent strip in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value was analyzed. Urine reagent strip test had a sensitivity of 13.9 per cent, a specificity of 95.6 per cent, a positive predictive value of 46.1 per cent, a negative predictive value of 80.6 per cent in detecting asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women.

Attributional style and the generality of learned helplessness.

PubMed

Alloy, L B; Peterson, C; Abramson, L Y; Seligman, M E

1984-03-01

According to the logic of the attribution reformulation of learned helplessness, the interaction of two factors influences whether helplessness experienced in one situation will transfer to a new situation. The model predicts that people who exhibit a style of attributing negative outcomes to global factors will show helplessness deficits in new situations that are either similar or dissimilar to the original situation in which they were helpless. In contrast, people who exhibit a style of attributing negative outcomes to only specific factors will show helplessness deficits in situations that are similar, but not dissimilar, to the original situation in which they were helpless. To test these predictions, we conducted two studies in which undergraduates with either a global or specific attributional style for negative outcomes were given one of three pretreatments in the typical helplessness triadic design: controllable bursts of noise, uncontrollable bursts of noise, or no noise. In Experiment 1, students were tested for helplessness deficits in a test situation similar to the pretreatment setting, whereas in Experiment 2, they were tested in a test situation dissimilar to the pretreatment setting. The findings were consistent with predictions of the reformulated helplessness theory.

Prostate cancer prediction using the random forest algorithm that takes into account transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen.

PubMed

Xiao, Li-Hong; Chen, Pei-Ran; Gou, Zhong-Ping; Li, Yong-Zhong; Li, Mei; Xiang, Liang-Cheng; Feng, Ping

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the random forest algorithm that combines data on transrectal ultrasound findings, age, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen to predict prostate carcinoma. Clinico-demographic data were analyzed for 941 patients with prostate diseases treated at our hospital, including age, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, transrectal ultrasound findings, and pathology diagnosis based on ultrasound-guided needle biopsy of the prostate. These data were compared between patients with and without prostate cancer using the Chi-square test, and then entered into the random forest model to predict diagnosis. Patients with and without prostate cancer differed significantly in age and serum prostate-specific antigen levels (P < 0.001), as well as in all transrectal ultrasound characteristics (P < 0.05) except uneven echo (P = 0.609). The random forest model based on age, prostate-specific antigen and ultrasound predicted prostate cancer with an accuracy of 83.10%, sensitivity of 65.64%, and specificity of 93.83%. Positive predictive value was 86.72%, and negative predictive value was 81.64%. By integrating age, prostate-specific antigen levels and transrectal ultrasound findings, the random forest algorithm shows better diagnostic performance for prostate cancer than either diagnostic indicator on its own. This algorithm may help improve diagnosis of the disease by identifying patients at high risk for biopsy.

Recent advances in the development and use of molecular tests to predict antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

PubMed

Donà, Valentina; Low, Nicola; Golparian, Daniel; Unemo, Magnus

2017-09-01

The number of genetic tests, mostly real-time PCRs, to detect antimicrobial resistance (AMR) determinants and predict AMR in Neisseria gonorrhoeae is increasing. Several of these assays are promising, but there are important shortcomings and few assays have been adequately validated and quality assured. Areas covered: Recent advances, focusing on publications since 2012, in the development and use of molecular tests to predict gonococcal AMR for surveillance and for clinical use, advantages and disadvantages of these tests and of molecular AMR prediction compared with phenotypic AMR testing, and future perspectives for effective use of molecular AMR tests for different purposes. Expert commentary: Several challenges for direct testing of clinical, especially extra-genital, specimens remain. The choice of molecular assay needs to consider the assay target, quality controls, sample types, limitations intrinsic to molecular technologies, and specific to the chosen methodology, and the intended use of the test. Improved molecular- and particularly genome-sequencing-based methods will supplement AMR testing for surveillance purposes, and translate into point-of-care tests that will lead to personalized treatments, while sparing the last available empiric treatment option (ceftriaxone). However, genetic AMR prediction will never completely replace phenotypic AMR testing, which detects also AMR due to unknown AMR determinants.

Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

PubMed

Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

2009-08-01

Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis. Adding sensory data improves the specificity of our test markedly.

Evaluation of dental pulp sensibility tests in a clinical setting.

PubMed

Jespersen, James J; Hellstein, John; Williamson, Anne; Johnson, William T; Qian, Fang

2014-03-01

The goal of this project was to evaluate the performance of dental pulp sensibility testing with Endo Ice (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) and an electric pulp tester (EPT) and to determine the effect of several variables on the reliability of these tests. Data were collected from 656 patients seen in the University of Iowa College of Dentistry Endodontic graduate clinic. The results of pulpal sensibility tests, along with the tooth number, age, sex, number of restored surfaces, presence or absence of clinical or radiographic caries, and reported recent use of analgesic medications, were recorded. The presence of vital tissue within the pulp chamber was used to verify the diagnosis. The Endo Ice results showed accuracy, 0.904; sensitivity, 0.916; specificity, 0.896; positive predictive value, 0.862; and negative predictive value, 0.937. The EPT results showed accuracy, 0.75; sensitivity, 0.84; specificity, 0.74; positive predictive value, 0.58; and negative predictive value, 0.90. Patients aged 21-50 years exhibited a more accurate response to cold testing (P = .0043). Vital teeth with caries responded more accurately to cold testing (P = .0077). There was no statistically significant difference noted with any other variable examined. Pulpal sensibility testing with Endo Ice and EPT are accurate and reliable methods of determining pulpal vitality. Patients aged 21-50 exhibited a more accurate response to cold. Sex, tooth type, number of restored surfaces, presence of caries, and recent analgesic use did not significantly alter the results of pulpal sensibility testing in this study. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermal Mechanical Fatigue of Coated Blade Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

temperature and strain greatly affect TMF life. The temperature-strain phase angle may vary from 180 degrees out of phase, for fast transients at...simplified constitutive technique. The life prediction model was specifically not designed to be a constitutive excercise , and therefore the observed test...the actual test. In one case (S/N 25) the actual tensile stresses were larger than the predicted values. This was caused by intermittent problems with

Evaluation of Two Crew Module Boilerplate Tests Using Newly Developed Calibration Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.

2012-01-01

The paper discusses a application of multi-dimensional calibration metrics to evaluate pressure data from water drop tests of the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) crew module boilerplate. Specifically, three metrics are discussed: 1) a metric to assess the probability of enveloping the measured data with the model, 2) a multi-dimensional orthogonality metric to assess model adequacy between test and analysis, and 3) a prediction error metric to conduct sensor placement to minimize pressure prediction errors. Data from similar (nearly repeated) capsule drop tests shows significant variability in the measured pressure responses. When compared to expected variability using model predictions, it is demonstrated that the measured variability cannot be explained by the model under the current uncertainty assumptions.

Do Maximal Roller Skiing Speed and Double Poling Performance Predict Youth Cross-Country Skiing Performance?

PubMed Central

Stöggl, Roland; Müller, Erich; Stöggl, Thomas

2017-01-01

The aims of the current study were to analyze whether specific roller skiing tests and cycle length are determinants of youth cross-country (XC) skiing performance, and to evaluate sex specific differences by applying non-invasive diagnostics. Forty-nine young XC skiers (33 boys; 13.8 ± 0.6 yrs and 16 girls; 13.4 ± 0.9 yrs) performed roller skiing tests consisting of both shorter (50 m) and longer durations (575 m). Test results were correlated with on snow XC skiing performance (PXC) based on 3 skating and 3 classical distance competitions (3 to 6 km). The main findings of the current study were: 1) Anthropometrics and maturity status were related to boys’, but not to girls’ PXC; 2) Significant moderate to acceptable correlations between girls’ and boys’ short duration maximal roller skiing speed (double poling, V2 skating, leg skating) and PXC were found; 3) Boys’ PXC was best predicted by double poling test performance on flat and uphill, while girls’ performance was mainly predicted by uphill double poling test performance; 4) When controlling for maturity offset, boys’ PXC was still highly associated with the roller skiing tests. The use of simple non-invasive roller skiing tests for determination of PXC represents practicable support for ski clubs, schools or skiing federations in the guidance and evaluation of young talent. Key points Double poling tests on flat and uphill terrain and short duration maximal speed tests were the highest cross-country skiing predicting factors in girls and boys. Only in the boys there was an effect of maturation on the performance outcomes, pointing out that girls seem to be almost fully matured at the age of 13 in contrast to the boys. Roller skiing tests over short distance (50-m) and longer distance 225 m and 350 m are stable and valid measures and suitable for performance prediction in youth cross-country skiers. PMID:28912656

The Andersen aerobic fitness test: New peak oxygen consumption prediction equations in 10 and 16-year olds.

PubMed

Aadland, E; Andersen, L B; Lerum, Ø; Resaland, G K

2018-03-01

Measurement of aerobic fitness by determining peak oxygen consumption (VO 2peak ) is often not feasible in children and adolescents, thus field tests such as the Andersen test are required in many settings, for example in most school-based studies. This study provides cross-validated prediction equations for VO 2peak based on the Andersen test in 10 and 16-year-old children. We included 235 children (n = 113 10-year olds and 122 16-year olds) who performed the Andersen test and a progressive treadmill test to exhaustion to determine VO 2peak . Joint and sex-specific prediction equations were derived and tested in 20 random samples. Performance in terms of systematic (bias) and random error (limits of agreement) was evaluated by means of Bland-Altman plots. Bias varied from -4.28 to 5.25 mL/kg/min across testing datasets, sex, and the 2 age groups. Sex-specific equations (mean bias -0.42 to 0.16 mL/kg/min) performed somewhat better than joint equations (-1.07 to 0.84 mL/kg/min). Limits of agreement were substantial across all datasets, sex, and both age groups, but were slightly lower in 16-year olds (5.84-13.29 mL/kg/min) compared to 10-year olds (9.60-15.15 mL/kg/min). We suggest the presented equations can be used to predict VO 2peak from the Andersen test performance in children and adolescents on a group level. Although the Andersen test appears to be a good measure of aerobic fitness, researchers should interpret cross-sectional individual-level predictions of VO 2peak with caution due to large random measurement errors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transformational leadership, intrinsic motivation, and trust: a moderated-mediated model of workplace safety.

PubMed

Conchie, Stacey M

2013-04-01

Two studies examine the role of motivation and trust in the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behavior. Study 1 tested the prediction that intrinsic and identified regulation motivations mediate the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behaviors. Study 2 further explored this relationship by testing the prediction that the mediating role of intrinsic motivation is dependent on employees' level of trust in their leader. Survey data from the U.K. construction industry supported both predictions. However, the mediating role of intrinsic motivation was found only for challenge safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., voice) and not for affiliative safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., helping). These findings suggest that employees' intrinsic motivation is important to the effectiveness of leaders' efforts to promote some but not all forms of safety behavior.

A Prospective Test of Cognitive Vulnerability Models of Depression With Adolescent Girls

PubMed Central

Bohon, Cara; Stice, Eric; Burton, Emily; Fudell, Molly; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan

2009-01-01

This study sought to provide a more rigorous prospective test of two cognitive vulnerability models of depression with longitudinal data from 496 adolescent girls. Results supported the cognitive vulnerability model in that stressors predicted future increases in depressive symptoms and onset of clinically significant major depression for individuals with a negative attributional style, but not for those with a positive attributional style, although these effects were small. This model appeared to be specific to depression, in that it did not predict future increases in bulimia nervosa or substance abuse symptoms. In contrast, results did not support the integrated cognitive vulnerability self-esteem model that asserts stressors should only predict increased depression for individuals with a confluence of negative attributional style and low self-esteem, and this model did not appear to be specific to depression. PMID:18328873

Development and testing of monoclonal antibody-based rapid immunodiagnostic test kits for direct detection of Vibrio cholerae O139 synonym Bengal.

PubMed

Hasan, J A; Huq, A; Nair, G B; Garg, S; Mukhopadhyay, A K; Loomis, L; Bernstein, D; Colwell, R R

1995-11-01

We report on the development and testing of two monoclonal antibody-based rapid immunodiagnostic test kits, BengalScreen, a coagglutination test, and Bengal DFA, a direct fluorescent-antibody test, for direct detection of Vibrio cholerae O139 synonym Bengal in clinical and environmental specimens. The BengalScreen test requires less than 5 min to complete and can be used in the field. Bengal DFA, being more sensitive than BengalScreen, requires only one reagent and less than 20 min for detection and enumeration of V. cholerae O139 synonym Bengal. In tests for specificity, all 40 strains of V. cholerae O139 reacted with both test kits, whereas 157 strains of heterologous species examined did not, yielding 100% specificity in this study. A field trial was conducted in with both BengalScreen and Bengal DFA, and the results were compared with those obtained by conventional culture methods. BengalScreen demonstrated a sensitivity of 95%, a specificity of 100%, a positive predictive value of 100%, and a negative predictive value of 94%. Results obtained by Bengal DFA, on the other hand, were 100% sensitive and 100% specific and yielded 100% positive and negative predictive values compared with culture methods. In a second evaluation, 93 stool specimens from Mexico that were negative for V. cholerae O139 by culture were also tested with both the BengalScreen and Bengal DFA kits. None of the 93 specimens were positive for V. cholerae O139 by both tests. A concentration method was optimized for screening of environmental water samples for V. cholerae O139 synonym Bengal with rapid test kits. BengalScreen results were unequivocally positive when water samples contained at least 2.0 x 10(3) CFU/ml, whereas Bengal DFA demonstrated an unequivocally positive reaction when the water sample contained at least 1.5 x 10(2) CFU/ml. When Bengal DFA was compared with conventional culture methods for enumeration of V. cholerae O139 synonym Bengal organisms, no difference was observed.

Human papillomavirus DNA testing as an adjunct to cytology in cervical screening programs.

PubMed

Lörincz, Attila T; Richart, Ralph M

2003-08-01

Our objective was to review current large studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as an adjunct to the Papanicolaou test for cervical cancer screening programs. We analyzed 10 large screening studies that used the Hybrid Capture 2 test and 3 studies that used the polymerase chain reaction test in a manner that enabled reliable estimates of accuracy for detecting or predicting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Most studies allowed comparison of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing and estimates of the performance of Papanicolaou and HPV DNA as combined tests. The studies were selected on the basis of a sufficient number of cases of high-grade CIN and cancer to provide meaningful statistical values. Investigators had to demonstrate the ability to generate reasonably reliable Hybrid Capture 2 or polymerase chain reaction data that were either minimally biased by nature of study design or that permitted analytical techniques for addressing issues of study bias to be applied. Studies had to provide data for the calculation of test sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, odds ratios, relative risks, confidence intervals, and other relevant measures. Final data were abstracted directly from published articles or estimated from descriptive statistics presented in the articles. In some studies, new analyses were performed from raw data supplied by the principal investigators. We concluded that HPV DNA testing was a more sensitive indicator for prevalent high-grade CIN than either conventional or liquid cytology. A combination of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing had almost 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. The specificity of the combined tests was slightly lower than the specificity of the Papanicolaou test alone, but this decrease could potentially be offset by greater protection from neoplastic progression and cost savings available from extended screening intervals. One "double-negative" HPV DNA and Papanicolaou test indicated better prognostic assurance against risk of future CIN 3 than 3 subsequent negative conventional Papanicolaou tests and may safely allow 3-year screening intervals for such low-risk women.

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-01-01

Objectives We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. Study eligibility criteria This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. Primary and secondary outcome measures We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. Results We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). Conclusions hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion. PMID:24556243

The Natural History of IgE-Mediated Food Allergy: Can Skin Prick Tests and Serum-Specific IgE Predict the Resolution of Food Allergy?

PubMed Central

Peters, Rachel L.; Gurrin, Lyle C.; Dharmage, Shyamali C.; Koplin, Jennifer J.; Allen, Katrina J.

2013-01-01

IgE-mediated food allergy is a transient condition for some children, however there are few indices to predict when and in whom food allergy will resolve. Skin prick test (SPT) and serum-specific IgE levels (sIgE) are usually monitored in the management of food allergy and are used to predict the development of tolerance or persistence of food allergy. The aim of this article is to review the published literature that investigated the predictive value of SPT and sIgE in development of tolerance in children with a previous diagnosis of peanut, egg and milk allergy. A systematic search identified twenty-six studies, of which most reported SPT or sIgE thresholds which predicted persistent or resolved allergy. However, results were inconsistent between studies. Previous research was hampered by several limitations including the absence of gold standard test to diagnose food allergy or tolerance, biased samples in retrospective audits and lack of systematic protocols for triggering re-challenges. There is a need for population-based, prospective studies that use the gold standard oral food challenge (OFC) to diagnose food allergy at baseline and follow-up to develop SPT and sIgE thresholds that predict the course of food allergy. PMID:24132133

Pneumatosis in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus syndrome.

PubMed

Fischetti, Anthony J; Saunders, H Mark; Drobatz, Kenneth J

2004-01-01

Retrospectively, 243 dogs with radiographic evidence of gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) were studied for radiographic signs of pneumatosis (intramural gas), pneumoperitoneum, splenomegaly, and severity of gastric distention. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of these imaging signs as predictors of gastric wall necrosis, as determined by visual inspection at surgery or necropsy, were determined. The sensitivity and specificity of gastric pneumatosis were 14.1% and 92.7%, respectively. The prevalence of gastric wall necrosis was 26.6%. The positive and negative predictive values of gastric pneumatosis for predicting gastric necrosis were 40.9% and 74.9%, respectively. Gastric pneumatosis and pneumoperitoneum were identified together in four dogs. Pneumoperitoneum, either alone or in conjunction with pneumatosis, yielded similar results as a test for gastric necrosis. Splenomegaly and severity of gastric distention were insensitive and nonspecific for gastric wall necrosis. Splenomegaly did not predict the need for splenectomy at surgery. Although pneumatosis and pneumoperitoneum are relatively specific signs of gastric wall necrosis, the utility of these signs as a test for gastric necrosis is limited in clinical practice. The significance of pneumatosis should be taken into consideration with previous treatments for gastric decompression, as percutaneous gastric trocharization or orogastric intubation may increase the number of false-positive results.

Prostatectomy-based validation of combined urine and plasma test for predicting high grade prostate cancer.

PubMed

Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars; Shahbaba, Babak; Uchio, Edward; Feddersen, Søren; Moylan, Donald; Wojno, Kirk; Shore, Neal

2018-03-01

Distinguishing between low- and high-grade prostate cancers (PCa) is important, but biopsy may underestimate the actual grade of cancer. We have previously shown that urine/plasma-based prostate-specific biomarkers can predict high grade PCa. Our objective was to determine the accuracy of a test using cell-free RNA levels of biomarkers in predicting prostatectomy results. This multicenter community-based prospective study was conducted using urine/blood samples collected from 306 patients. All recruited patients were treatment-naïve, without metastases, and had been biopsied, designated a Gleason Score (GS) based on biopsy, and assigned to prostatectomy prior to participation in the study. The primary outcome measure was the urine/plasma test accuracy in predicting high grade PCa on prostatectomy compared with biopsy findings. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using standard formulas, while comparisons between groups were performed using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum, Kruskal-Wallis, Chi-Square, and Fisher's exact test. GS as assigned by standard 10-12 core biopsies was 3 + 3 in 90 (29.4%), 3 + 4 in 122 (39.8%), 4 + 3 in 50 (16.3%), and > 4 + 3 in 44 (14.4%) patients. The urine/plasma assay confirmed a previous validation and was highly accurate in predicting the presence of high-grade PCa (Gleason ≥3 + 4) with sensitivity between 88% and 95% as verified by prostatectomy findings. GS was upgraded after prostatectomy in 27% of patients and downgraded in 12% of patients. This plasma/urine biomarker test accurately predicts high grade cancer as determined by prostatectomy with a sensitivity at 92-97%, while the sensitivity of core biopsies was 78%. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

PubMed

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

PubMed Central

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models. PMID:29062288

How to use … the Monospot and other heterophile antibody tests.

PubMed

Marshall-Andon, Tess; Heinz, Peter

2017-08-01

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a highly prevalent virus, transmitted via saliva, which often causes asymptomatic infection in children but frequently results in infectious mononucleosis in adolescents. Heterophile antibody tests, including the Monospot test, are red cell or latex agglutination assays, which detect antired cell antibodies produced as part of a polyclonal antibody response occurring during EBV infection. Heterophile antibody tests are rapid, cheap and specific tests that can be performed from the onset of symptoms of infectious mononucleosis. In adolescents, heterophile antibody tests have high specificity and sensitivity in the diagnosis of primary acute EBV infection. However, the tests have low sensitivity and low negative predictive value in young children and are not useful under the age of 4. Heterophile tests may be positive in other viral infections, autoimmune disease and haematological malignancies, but do not appear to be positive in primary bacterial infection. Virus-specific serology is required in children under the age of 4 or if an older child is heterophile negative. Virus-specific serology allows diagnosis and the pattern of positivity and negativity enables the clinician to stage the EBV infection. Virus-specific serology appears to have better sensitivity in young children, but there is cross-reaction with other herpesvirus infections, a longer turnaround time and it is more expensive to perform. Further research is needed to establish which children benefit from and hence require testing for heterophile antibodies, the cost-effectiveness of EBV investigations and whether heterophile titres have predictive value for the severity of infection and the likelihood of complications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Evaluation of the utility of atopy patch testing, skin prick testing, and total and specific IgE assays in the diagnosis of cow's milk allergy.

PubMed

Keskin, Ozlem; Tuncer, Ayfer; Adalioglu, Gonul; Sekerel, Bulent E; Sackesen, Cansin; Kalayci, Omer

2005-05-01

Information on the utility of atopy patch testing (APT) in the diagnosis of food allergy is derived from studies of children with atopic dermatitis. To evaluate the usefulness of APT in the diagnosis of cow's milk allergy (CMA) and to determine interleukin 4 and interferon-gamma production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Thirty-seven children (median age, 11 months) with suspected CMA who had a variety of symptoms that involved many organ systems were evaluated using double-blind placebo-controlled food challenges (DBPCFCs), and the performances of milk specific IgE, skin prick testing (SPT), and APT were determined. To search for a possible relationship between the diagnostic tests and the TH1/TH2 immune response, we measured interferon-gamma and interleukin 4 levels in the supernatants of peripheral blood mononuclear cell cultures. Seventeen children with positive DBPCFC results and 6 with a history of anaphylaxis were diagnosed as having CMA. The combined use of APT and SPT had a sensitivity of 100% and a negative predictive value of 100% but a specificity of 50% and a positive predictive value of 76%. The addition of milk specific IgE assays to APT and SPT did not improve these values. Pattern of cytokine secretion was not associated with APT positivity or a specific response to DBPCFC. Atopy patch testing may be a useful adjunct to SPT in excluding CMA in children who have allergic manifestations other than atopic dermatitis. However, DBPCFCs are still necessary in the presence of positive test results.

Development of a binder fracture test to determine fracture energy.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-01

It has been found that binder testing methods in current specifications do not accurately predict cracking performance at intermediate temperatures. Fracture energy has been determined to be strongly correlated to fracture resistance of asphalt mixtu...

SELDI-TOF-MS proteomic profiling of serum, urine, and amniotic fluid in neural tube defects.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenjiang; Yuan, Zhengwei; Zhao, Qun

2014-01-01

Neural tube defects (NTDs) are common birth defects, whose specific biomarkers are needed. The purpose of this pilot study is to determine whether protein profiling in NTD-mothers differ from normal controls using SELDI-TOF-MS. ProteinChip Biomarker System was used to evaluate 82 maternal serum samples, 78 urine samples and 76 amniotic fluid samples. The validity of classification tree was then challenged with a blind test set including another 20 NTD-mothers and 18 controls in serum samples, and another 19 NTD-mothers and 17 controls in urine samples, and another 20 NTD-mothers and 17 controls in amniotic fluid samples. Eight proteins detected in serum samples were up-regulated and four proteins were down-regulated in the NTD group. Four proteins detected in urine samples were up-regulated and one protein was down-regulated in the NTD group. Six proteins detected in amniotic fluid samples were up-regulated and one protein was down-regulated in the NTD group. The classification tree for serum samples separated NTDs from healthy individuals, achieving a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 97% in the training set, and achieving a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 97% and a positive predictive value of 95% in the test set. The classification tree for urine samples separated NTDs from controls, achieving a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 94% in the training set, and achieving a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 85% in the test set. The classification tree for amniotic fluid samples separated NTDs from controls, achieving a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 89% in the training set, and achieving a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 88% and a positive predictive value of 90% in the test set. These suggest that SELDI-TOF-MS is an additional method for NTDs pregnancies detection.

Predicting protein-binding RNA nucleotides with consideration of binding partners.

PubMed

Tuvshinjargal, Narankhuu; Lee, Wook; Park, Byungkyu; Han, Kyungsook

2015-06-01

In recent years several computational methods have been developed to predict RNA-binding sites in protein. Most of these methods do not consider interacting partners of a protein, so they predict the same RNA-binding sites for a given protein sequence even if the protein binds to different RNAs. Unlike the problem of predicting RNA-binding sites in protein, the problem of predicting protein-binding sites in RNA has received little attention mainly because it is much more difficult and shows a lower accuracy on average. In our previous study, we developed a method that predicts protein-binding nucleotides from an RNA sequence. In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and usefulness of the previous method, we developed a new method that uses both RNA and protein sequence data. In this study, we identified effective features of RNA and protein molecules and developed a new support vector machine (SVM) model to predict protein-binding nucleotides from RNA and protein sequence data. The new model that used both protein and RNA sequence data achieved a sensitivity of 86.5%, a specificity of 86.2%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 72.6%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.8% and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.69 in a 10-fold cross validation; it achieved a sensitivity of 58.8%, a specificity of 87.4%, a PPV of 65.1%, a NPV of 84.2% and MCC of 0.48 in independent testing. For comparative purpose, we built another prediction model that used RNA sequence data alone and ran it on the same dataset. In a 10 fold-cross validation it achieved a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 80.5%, a PPV of 67.7%, a NPV of 92.2% and MCC of 0.63; in independent testing it achieved a sensitivity of 67.7%, a specificity of 78.8%, a PPV of 57.6%, a NPV of 85.2% and MCC of 0.45. In both cross-validations and independent testing, the new model that used both RNA and protein sequences showed a better performance than the model that used RNA sequence data alone in most performance measures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first sequence-based prediction of protein-binding nucleotides in RNA which considers the binding partner of RNA. The new model will provide valuable information for designing biochemical experiments to find putative protein-binding sites in RNA with unknown structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of different balance tests in the prediction of falls in older women with vertebral fractures: a cohort study.

PubMed

Morris, Rob; Harwood, Rowan H; Baker, Ros; Sahota, Opinder; Armstrong, Sarah; Masud, Tahir

2007-01-01

people with vertebral fractures are at high risk of developing hip fractures. Falls risk is important in the pathogenesis of hip fractures. to investigate if balance tests, in conjunction with a falls history, can predict falls in older women with vertebral fractures. a cohort study of community-dwelling women aged over 60 years, with vertebral fractures. Balance tests investigated were: 5 m-timed-up-and-go-test (5 m-TUG), timed 10 m walk, TURN180 test (number of steps to turn 180 degrees ), tandem walk, ability to stand from chair with arms folded. Leg extensor power was also measured. fallers (at least one fall in a 12 month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. one hundred and four women aged 63-91 years [mean=78 +/- 7], were recruited. Eighty-six (83%) completed the study. Four variables were significantly associated with fallers: previous recurrent faller (2+ falls) [OR=6.52; 95% CI=1.69-25.22], 5 m-TUG test [OR=1.03; 1.00-1.06], timed 10 m walk [OR=1.07; 1.01-1.13] and the TURN180 test [OR=1.22; 1.00-1.49] [P <0.05]. Multi-variable analysis showed that only two variables, previous recurrent faller [OR=5.60; 1.40-22.45] and the 5 m-TUG test [OR=1.04; 1.00-1.08], were independently significantly associated with fallers. The optimal cut-off time for performing the 5 m-TUG test in predicting fallers was 30 s (area under ROC=60%). Combining previous recurrent faller with the 5 m-TUG improved prediction of fallers [OR=16.79, specificity=100%, sensitivity=13%]. a previous history of recurrent falls and the inability to perform the 5 m-TUG test within 30 s predicted falls in older women with vertebral fractures. Combining these two measures can predict fallers with a high degree of specificity (although a low sensitivity), allowing the identification of a group of patients suitable for fall and fracture prevention measures.

Attitudes toward emotions.

PubMed

Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Harmon-Jones, Cindy; Amodio, David M; Gable, Philip A

2011-12-01

The present work outlines a theory of attitudes toward emotions, provides a measure of attitudes toward emotions, and then tests several predictions concerning relationships between attitudes toward specific emotions and emotional situation selection, emotional traits, emotional reactivity, and emotion regulation. The present conceptualization of individual differences in attitudes toward emotions focuses on specific emotions and presents data indicating that 5 emotions (anger, sadness, joy, fear, and disgust) load on 5 separate attitude factors (Study 1). Attitudes toward emotions predicted emotional situation selection (Study 2). Moreover, attitudes toward approach emotions (e.g., anger, joy) correlated directly with the associated trait emotions, whereas attitudes toward withdrawal emotions (fear, disgust) correlated inversely with associated trait emotions (Study 3). Similar results occurred when attitudes toward emotions were used to predict state emotional reactivity (Study 4). Finally, attitudes toward emotions predicted specific forms of emotion regulation (Study 5).

Clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying rasch analysis in predicting of cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Yoo, Doo Han; Lee, Jae Shin

2016-07-01

[Purpose] This study examined the clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying Rasch analysis for predicting the level of cognitive impairment. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 187 stroke patients with cognitive impairment were enrolled in this study. The 187 patients were evaluated by the clock drawing test developed through Rasch analysis along with the mini-mental state examination of cognitive evaluation tool. An analysis of the variance was performed to examine the significance of the mini-mental state examination and the clock drawing test according to the general characteristics of the subjects. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the cutoff point for cognitive impairment and to calculate the sensitivity and specificity values. [Results] The results of comparison of the clock drawing test with the mini-mental state showed significant differences in according to gender, age, education, and affected side. A total CDT of 10.5, which was selected as the cutoff point to identify cognitive impairement, showed a sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, positive predictive, and negative predicive values of 86.4%, 91.5%, 0.8, 95%, and 88.2%. [Conclusion] The clock drawing test is believed to be useful in assessments and interventions based on its excellent ability to identify cognitive disorders.

Utility of brief questionnaires of health-related quality of life (Airways Questionnaire 20 and Clinical COPD Questionnaire) to predict exacerbations in patients with asthma and COPD

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is some evidence that quality of life measured by long disease-specific questionnaires may predict exacerbations in asthma and COPD, however brief quality of life tools, such as the Airways Questionnaire 20 (AQ20) or the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), have not yet been evaluated as predictors of hospital exacerbations. Objectives To determine the ability of brief specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires (AQ20 and CCQ) to predict emergency department visits (ED) and hospitalizations in patients with asthma and COPD, and to compare them to longer disease-specific questionnaires, such as the St George´s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire (CRQ) and the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ). Methods We conducted a two-year prospective cohort study of 208 adult patients (108 asthma, 100 COPD). Baseline sociodemographic, clinical, functional and psychological variables were assessed. All patients completed the AQ20 and the SGRQ. COPD patients also completed the CCQ and the CRQ, while asthmatic patients completed the AQLQ. We registered all exacerbations that required ED or hospitalizations in the follow-up period. Differences between groups (zero ED visits or hospitalizations versus ≥ 1 ED visits or hospitalizations) were tested with Pearson´s X2 or Fisher´s exact test for categorical variables, ANOVA for normally distributed continuous variables, and Mann–Whitney U test for non-normally distributed variables. Logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the predictive ability of each HRQoL questionnaire. Results In the first year of follow-up, the AQ20 scores predicted both ED visits (OR: 1.19; p = .004; AUC 0.723) and hospitalizations (OR: 1.21; p = .04; AUC 0.759) for asthma patients, and the CCQ emerged as independent predictor of ED visits in COPD patients (OR: 1.06; p = .036; AUC 0.651), after adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological variables. Among the longer disease-specific questionnaires, only the AQLQ emerged as predictor of ED visits in asthma patients (OR: 0.9; p = .002; AUC 0.727). In the second year of follow-up, none of HRQoL questionnaires predicted exacerbations. Conclusions AQ20 predicts exacerbations in asthma and CCQ predicts ED visits in COPD in the first year of follow-up. Their predictive ability is similar to or even higher than that of longer disease-specific questionnaires. PMID:23706146

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Miller, C. A.; Batson, C. D.; Wood, S. J.; Guined, J. R.; Cohen, H. S.; Buccello-Stout, R.; DeDios, Y. E.;

Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 2: Likelihood ratios.

PubMed

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-01-01

Diagnostic tests are used to identify subjects with and without disease. In a previous article in this series, we examined some attributes of diagnostic tests - sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this second article, we look at likelihood ratios, which are useful for the interpretation of diagnostic test results in everyday clinical practice.

Diagnostic Value of Cerebrospinal Fluid T-SPOT.TB for Tuberculousis Meningitis in China.

PubMed

Li, Xue Lian; Xie, Na; Wang, Song Wang; Wu, Qian Hong; Ma, Yan; Shu, Wei; Chen, Hong Mei; Zhang, Li Qun; Wu, Xiao Guang; Ma, Li Ping; Che, Nan Ying; Gao, Meng Qiu

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) T-SPOT.TB test for the diagnosis of TB meningitis (TBM). A retrospective analysis of 96 patients with manifested meningitis was conducted; T-SPOT.TB test was performed for diagnosing TBM to determine the diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also drawn to assess the diagnostic accuracy. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of CSF T-SPOT.TB test were 97.8%, 78.0%, 80.3%, and 97.5%, respectively, for 52 patients (54.2%) of the 96 enrolled patients. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.910, and the sensitivities of CSF T-SPOT.TB for patients with stages I, II, and III of TBM were 96.7%, 97.2%, and 98.9%, respectively. CSF T-SPOT.TB test is a rapid and accurate diagnostic method with higher sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing TBM. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Science Library of Test Items. Volume Eleven. Mastery Testing Programme. [Mastery Tests Series 3.] Tests M27-M38.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New South Wales Dept. of Education, Sydney (Australia).

As part of a series of tests to measure mastery of specific skills in the natural sciences, copies of tests 27 through 38 include: (27) reading a grid plan; (28) identifying common invertebrates; (29) characteristics of invertebrates; (30) identifying elements; (31) using scientific notation part I; (32) classifying minerals; (33) predicting the…

Evaluating the High Risk Groups for Suicide: A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

AMINI, Payam; AHMADINIA, Hasan; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MOQADDASI AMIRI, Mohammad

2016-01-01

Background: We aimed to assess the high-risk group for suicide using different classification methods includinglogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). Methods: We used the dataset of a study conducted to predict risk factors of completed suicide in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, in 2010. To evaluate the high-risk groups for suicide, LR, SVM, DT and ANN were performed. The applied methods were compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value, accuracy and the area under curve. Cochran-Q test was implied to check differences in proportion among methods. To assess the association between the observed and predicted values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were calculated. Results: Gender, age, and job were the most important risk factors for fatal suicide attempts in common for four methods. SVM method showed the highest accuracy 0.68 and 0.67 for training and testing sample, respectively. However, this method resulted in the highest specificity (0.67 for training and 0.68 for testing sample) and the highest sensitivity for training sample (0.85), but the lowest sensitivity for the testing sample (0.53). Cochran-Q test resulted in differences between proportions in different methods (P<0.001). The association of SVM predictions and observed values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were 0.239, 0.232 and 0.239, respectively. Conclusion: SVM had the best performance to classify fatal suicide attempts comparing to DT, LR and ANN. PMID:27957463

The accuracy of HIV rapid testing in integrated bio-behavioral surveys of men who have sex with men across 5 Provinces in South Africa

PubMed Central

Kufa, Tendesayi; Lane, Tim; Manyuchi, Albert; Singh, Beverley; Isdahl, Zachary; Osmand, Thomas; Grasso, Mike; Struthers, Helen; McIntyre, James; Chipeta, Zawadi; Puren, Adrian

2017-01-01

Abstract We describe the accuracy of serial rapid HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa and discuss the implications for HIV testing and prevention. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted at five stand-alone facilities from five provinces. Demographic, behavioral, and clinical data were collected. Dried blood spots were obtained for HIV-related testing. Participants were offered rapid HIV testing using 2 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series. In the laboratory, reference HIV testing was conducted using a third-generation enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a fourth-generation EIA as confirmatory. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive, and false-negative rates were determined. Between August 2015 and July 2016, 2503 participants were enrolled. Of these, 2343 were tested by RDT on site with a further 2137 (91.2%) having definitive results on both RDT and EIA. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive rates, and false-negative rates were 92.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 89.6–94.8], 99.4% (95% CI 98.9–99.7), 97.4% (95% CI 95.2–98.6), 98.3% (95% CI 97.6–98.8), 0.6% (95% CI 0.3–1.1), and 7.4% (95% CI 5.2–10.4), respectively. False negatives were similar to true positives with respect to virological profiles. Overall accuracy of the RDT algorithm was high, but sensitivity was lower than expected. Post-HIV test counseling should include discussions of possible false-negative results and the need for retesting among HIV negatives. PMID:28700474

Measurement of urinary metanephrines to screen for pheochromocytoma in an unselected hospital referral population.

PubMed

Brain, Keith L; Kay, Jonathan; Shine, Brian

2006-11-01

Despite the rarity of pheochromocytoma, diagnosis is important because of the dangers of uncontrolled severe hypertension and the availability of very effective surgical treatment. Urinary or plasma catecholamines or catecholamine derivatives are commonly used to screen for pheochromocytomas before imaging, but data from 24-h urinary metanephrine results, patient age, and sex may better predict tumors in populations with a low pretest probability. We retrospectively studied outcomes of an unselected population (1819 patients) referred to a tertiary hospital laboratory for urinary metanephrine testing and investigated the usefulness of some simple derivative measures for detecting pheochromocytoma. We normalized values for urinary 24-h excretion of metanephrine, normetanephrine, and 3-methoxytyramine by dividing by an age- and sex-specific reference range. We then compared pheochromocytoma prediction by the use of products of these normalized measures with the gold standard of biopsy-confirmed tumor. The product of the excretion of normalized metanephrine (nMAD) and normalized normetanephrine (nNMT) (nMAD.nNMT) was a highly sensitive (100%) and specific (99.1%) measure, yielding a positive predictive value of 82%. ROC curves were not improved by including the normalized 3-methoxytyramine concentrations in the product. The test for nMAD.nNMT gave higher sensitivity and specificity than the tests for either substance alone. The test for nMAD.nNMT is a useful measure for identifying pheochromocytoma in a population with a low pretest probability.

Task-Specific Response Strategy Selection on the Basis of Recent Training Experience

PubMed Central

Fulvio, Jacqueline M.; Green, C. Shawn; Schrater, Paul R.

2014-01-01

The goal of training is to produce learning for a range of activities that are typically more general than the training task itself. Despite a century of research, predicting the scope of learning from the content of training has proven extremely difficult, with the same task producing narrowly focused learning strategies in some cases and broadly scoped learning strategies in others. Here we test the hypothesis that human subjects will prefer a decision strategy that maximizes performance and reduces uncertainty given the demands of the training task and that the strategy chosen will then predict the extent to which learning is transferable. To test this hypothesis, we trained subjects on a moving dot extrapolation task that makes distinct predictions for two types of learning strategy: a narrow model-free strategy that learns an input-output mapping for training stimuli, and a general model-based strategy that utilizes humans' default predictive model for a class of trajectories. When the number of distinct training trajectories is low, we predict better performance for the mapping strategy, but as the number increases, a predictive model is increasingly favored. Consonant with predictions, subject extrapolations for test trajectories were consistent with using a mapping strategy when trained on a small number of training trajectories and a predictive model when trained on a larger number. The general framework developed here can thus be useful both in interpreting previous patterns of task-specific versus task-general learning, as well as in building future training paradigms with certain desired outcomes. PMID:24391490

Validation of Accelerometer Prediction Equations in Children with Chronic Disease.

PubMed

Stephens, Samantha; Takken, Tim; Esliger, Dale W; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; Beyene, Joseph; Tremblay, Mark; Schneiderman, Jane; Biggar, Doug; Longmuir, Pat; McCrindle, Brian; Abad, Audrey; Ignas, Dan; Van Der Net, Janjaap; Feldman, Brian

2016-02-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the criterion validity of existing accelerometer-based energy expenditure (EE) prediction equations among children with chronic conditions, and to develop new prediction equations. Children with congenital heart disease (CHD), cystic fibrosis (CF), dermatomyositis (JDM), juvenile arthritis (JA), inherited muscle disease (IMD), and hemophilia (HE) completed 7 tasks while EE was measured using indirect calorimetry with counts determined by accelerometer. Agreement between predicted EE and measured EE was assessed. Disease-specific equations and cut points were developed and cross-validated. In total, 196 subjects participated. One participant dropped out before testing due to time constraints, while 15 CHD, 32 CF, 31 JDM, 31 JA, 30 IMD, 28 HE, and 29 healthy controls completed the study. Agreement between predicted and measured EE varied across disease group and ranged from (ICC) .13-.46. Disease-specific prediction equations exhibited a range of results (ICC .62-.88) (SE 0.45-0.78). In conclusion, poor agreement was demonstrated using current prediction equations in children with chronic conditions. Disease-specific equations and cut points were developed.

The predictive value of urinary vanillylmandelic acid testing in the diagnosis of phaeochromocytoma at the University Hospital of the West Indies.

PubMed

Chin, S N; Boyne, M S; McGrowder, D; Gibson, T N; McKenzie, C A

2011-03-01

To investigate the positive predictive value (PPV) of urinary vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) testing in the diagnosis of phaeochromocytoma and to describe the features associated with phaeochromocytoma at the University Hospital of the West Indies (UHWI). There were 551 VMA tests performed from January 2003 to June 2009 and 122 tests in 85 patients were elevated (ie > or = 35 micromol/24 hr). The study patients were categorized as: (i) 'surgical' (5 patients who underwent surgery) or (ii) 'non-surgical' (remaining 80 patients). Forty medical charts (out of 85) were reviewed using a standardized data extraction form. The median age for patients in the non-surgical group (with charts reviewed, n = 35) was 36 years (range 9-70) and the median VMA was 43 micromol/24 hr (IQR 38-51). Of these patients, 83% had one or no symptom typical of phaeochromocytoma. In the surgical group the median VMA was 58 micromol/24 hr (IQR 44-101); phaeochromocytoma was confirmed histologically in 3 patients, all of whom had several symptoms typical of catecholamine excess. VMA testing had a PPV of 8%, specificity of 79% and sensitivity of 100%. VMA testing at UHWI has poor specificity and high sensitivity. These results contrast with international data showing that VMA testing is poorly sensitive but highly specific. The use of assays with higher specificity (eg plasma or urinary metanephrines) may represent a more cost-effective approach to biochemical screening at UHWI.

Challenges in Rotorcraft Acoustic Flight Prediction and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

2003-01-01

Challenges associated with rotorcraft acoustic flight prediction and validation are examined. First, an outline of a state-of-the-art rotorcraft aeroacoustic prediction methodology is presented. Components including rotorcraft aeromechanics, high resolution reconstruction, and rotorcraft acoustic prediction arc discussed. Next, to illustrate challenges and issues involved, a case study is presented in which an analysis of flight data from a specific XV-15 tiltrotor acoustic flight test is discussed in detail. Issues related to validation of methodologies using flight test data are discussed. Primary flight parameters such as velocity, altitude, and attitude are discussed and compared for repeated flight conditions. Other measured steady state flight conditions are examined for consistency and steadiness. A representative example prediction is presented and suggestions are made for future research.

Six rapid tests for direct detection of Clostridium difficile and its toxins in fecal samples compared with the fibroblast cytotoxicity assay.

PubMed

Turgeon, David K; Novicki, Thomas J; Quick, John; Carlson, LaDonna; Miller, Pat; Ulness, Bruce; Cent, Anne; Ashley, Rhoda; Larson, Ann; Coyle, Marie; Limaye, Ajit P; Cookson, Brad T; Fritsche, Thomas R

2003-02-01

Clostridium difficile is one of the most frequent causes of nosocomial gastrointestinal disease. Risk factors include prior antibiotic therapy, bowel surgery, and the immunocompromised state. Direct fecal analysis for C. difficile toxin B by tissue culture cytotoxin B assay (CBA), while only 60 to 85% sensitive overall, is a common laboratory method. We have used 1,003 consecutive, nonduplicate fecal samples to compare six commercially available immunoassays (IA) for C. difficile detection with CBA: Prima System Clostridium difficile Tox A and VIDAS Clostridium difficile Tox A II, which detect C. difficile toxin A; Premier Cytoclone A/B and Techlab Clostridium difficile Tox A/B, which detect toxins A and B; and ImmunoCard Clostridium difficile and Triage Micro C. difficile panels, which detect toxin A and a species-specific antigen. For all tests, Triage antigen was most sensitive (89.1%; negative predictive value [NPV] = 98.7%) while ImmunoCard was most specific (99.7%; positive predictive value [PPV] = 95.0%). For toxin tests only, Prima System had the highest sensitivity (82.2%; NPV = 98.0%) while ImmunoCard had the highest specificity (99.7%; PPV = 95.0%). Hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) patients contributed 44.7% of all samples tested, and no significant differences in sensitivity or specificity were noted between HSCT and non-HSCT patients. IAs, while not as sensitive as direct fecal CBA, produce reasonable predictive values, especially when both antigen and toxin are detected. They also offer significant advantages over CBA in terms of turnaround time and ease of use.

Reduced Autobiographical Memory Specificity Predicts Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder after Recent Trauma

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kleim, Birgit; Ehlers, Anke

2008-01-01

In this prospective longitudinal study, the authors examined the relationship between reduced specificity in autobiographical memory retrieval and the development of depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and specific phobia after injury in an assault. Assault survivors (N = 203) completed the Autobiographical Memory Test (J. M. G.…

Temporal specificity of reward prediction errors signaled by putative dopamine neurons in rat VTA depends on ventral striatum

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Yuji K.; Langdon, Angela J.; Niv, Yael; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Summary Dopamine neurons signal reward prediction errors. This requires accurate reward predictions. It has been suggested that the ventral striatum provides these predictions. Here we tested this hypothesis by recording from putative dopamine neurons in the VTA of rats performing a task in which prediction errors were induced by shifting reward timing or number. In controls, the neurons exhibited error signals in response to both manipulations. However, dopamine neurons in rats with ipsilateral ventral striatal lesions exhibited errors only to changes in number and failed to respond to changes in timing of reward. These results, supported by computational modeling, indicate that predictions about the temporal specificity and the number of expected rewards are dissociable, and that dopaminergic prediction-error signals rely on the ventral striatum for the former but not the latter. PMID:27292535

Nonpalpable testes: Ultrasound and contralateral testicular hypertrophy predict the surgical access, avoiding unnecessary laparoscopy.

PubMed

Berger, Christoph; Haid, Bernhard; Becker, Tanja; Koen, Mark; Roesch, Judith; Oswald, Josef

2018-04-01

In up to 20% of patients presenting with undescended testes, one or both are non-palpable. Whereas the most reliable means to exclude an abdominal testis is laparoscopy, there has been a lot of debate about the role of inguinal ultrasound (US) in detecting non-palpable inguinal testis. While we do not aim to add another paper claiming the benefits of US, we wanted to determine the excess capability of US to determine the correct surgical approach - inguinal or laparoscopy. In the light of avoiding unnecessary diagnostic laparoscopies, even the cost-effectiveness raised in many current papers might be called into question. Of a total of 684 boys who underwent surgery for undescended testes at our department between 2011 and 2014, in 58 (8.5%), one or both testes were neither palpable preoperatively nor under general anesthesia. These boys were examined by two experienced pediatric urologists clinically as well as by US. Besides the size of the contralateral testis, the presence of a testis in the inguinal channel was investigated. The additional impact of US over clinical exam and consideration of the size of the contralateral testis was assessed by means of intra-individual comparisons using Cochran-Q as well as McNemar tests. Clinical exam without considering the size of the contralateral testis had a sensitivity of 9% (95% CI 2-24%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI 86-100%) to accurately predict the surgical approach deemed appropriate postoperatively. The consideration of the size of the contralateral testis - taken as an isolated factor - accurately predicted the surgical approach with a sensitivity of 21% (95% CI 9-38%) and a specificity of 88% (95% CI 68-97%). Ultrasound accounted for a sensitivity of 53% (95% CI 35-70%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI 86-100%). The addition of US increased the sensitivity to correctly predict an inguinal incision from 29% to 71% and specificity slightly increased from 88% to 92%. This difference is significant (p = 0.008) in the bilateral McNemar test (Figure). Inguinal US of non-palpable testes and measurement of the contralateral testis are synergistic in predicting the surgical approach. The addition of ultrasound to a clinical exam, performed also under general anesthesia and by an experienced pediatric urologist significantly increases the prediction of the correct surgical approach. Our results translate into five boys needing an US of the NPT to prevent one laparoscopy. Whereas cost-effectiveness of US might be debatable in regard to different healthcare systems, it is proven to be an effective, non-harmful tool to avoid unnecessary diagnostic laparoscopies. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety testing of lithium cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liberto, Nick

1991-01-01

Safety testing is intended to simulate, under laboratory conditions and controls, situations that will subject a cell to externally induced stress. The stresses can occur at any time during the useful life of the cell, from the time of manufacture until it is expended during mission deployment. Abuse testing can be divided into three major categories: Electrical, Mechanical, and Thermal. Although electrical abuses are generally found to occur during handling or deployment, Mechanical and Thermal stresses can be induced during transportation and storage. Therefore, it would be prudent to include predicted environmental exposure as part of the test plan. In the selection of a test program. specific test requirements should be tailored to meet the predicted mission requirements.

Safety testing of lithium cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberto, Nick

1991-05-01

Safety testing is intended to simulate, under laboratory conditions and controls, situations that will subject a cell to externally induced stress. The stresses can occur at any time during the useful life of the cell, from the time of manufacture until it is expended during mission deployment. Abuse testing can be divided into three major categories: Electrical, Mechanical, and Thermal. Although electrical abuses are generally found to occur during handling or deployment, Mechanical and Thermal stresses can be induced during transportation and storage. Therefore, it would be prudent to include predicted environmental exposure as part of the test plan. In the selection of a test program. specific test requirements should be tailored to meet the predicted mission requirements.

Force Limited Vibration Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scharton, Terry; Chang, Kurng Y.

2005-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the concept and applications of Force Limited Vibration Testing. The goal of vibration testing of aerospace hardware is to identify problems that would result in flight failures. The commonly used aerospace vibration tests uses artificially high shaker forces and responses at the resonance frequencies of the test item. It has become common to limit the acceleration responses in the test to those predicted for the flight. This requires an analysis of the acceleration response, and requires placing accelerometers on the test item. With the advent of piezoelectric gages it has become possible to improve vibration testing. The basic equations have are reviewed. Force limits are analogous and complementary to the acceleration specifications used in conventional vibration testing. Just as the acceleration specification is the frequency spectrum envelope of the in-flight acceleration at the interface between the test item and flight mounting structure, the force limit is the envelope of the in-flight force at the interface . In force limited vibration tests, both the acceleration and force specifications are needed, and the force specification is generally based on and proportional to the acceleration specification. Therefore, force limiting does not compensate for errors in the development of the acceleration specification, e.g., too much conservatism or the lack thereof. These errors will carry over into the force specification. Since in-flight vibratory force data are scarce, force limits are often derived from coupled system analyses and impedance information obtained from measurements or finite element models (FEM). Fortunately, data on the interface forces between systems and components are now available from system acoustic and vibration tests of development test models and from a few flight experiments. Semi-empirical methods of predicting force limits are currently being developed on the basis of the limited flight and system test data. A simple two degree of freedom system is shown and the governing equations for basic force limiting results for this system are reviewed. The design and results of the shuttle vibration forces (SVF) experiments are reviewed. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) also was used to validate force limiting. Test instrumentation and supporting equipment are reviewed including piezo-electric force transducers, signal processing and conditioning systems, test fixtures, and vibration controller systems. Several examples of force limited vibration testing are presented with some results.

A novel QSAR model of Salmonella mutagenicity and its application in the safety assessment of drug impurities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valencia, Antoni; Prous, Josep; Mora, Oscar

As indicated in ICH M7 draft guidance, in silico predictive tools including statistically-based QSARs and expert analysis may be used as a computational assessment for bacterial mutagenicity for the qualification of impurities in pharmaceuticals. To address this need, we developed and validated a QSAR model to predict Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of pharmaceutical impurities using Prous Institute's Symmetry℠, a new in silico solution for drug discovery and toxicity screening, and the Mold2 molecular descriptor package (FDA/NCTR). Data was sourced from public benchmark databases with known Ames assay mutagenicity outcomes for 7300 chemicals (57% mutagens). Of these data, 90%more » was used to train the model and the remaining 10% was set aside as a holdout set for validation. The model's applicability to drug impurities was tested using a FDA/CDER database of 951 structures, of which 94% were found within the model's applicability domain. The predictive performance of the model is acceptable for supporting regulatory decision-making with 84 ± 1% sensitivity, 81 ± 1% specificity, 83 ± 1% concordance and 79 ± 1% negative predictivity based on internal cross-validation, while the holdout dataset yielded 83% sensitivity, 77% specificity, 80% concordance and 78% negative predictivity. Given the importance of having confidence in negative predictions, an additional external validation of the model was also carried out, using marketed drugs known to be Ames-negative, and obtained 98% coverage and 81% specificity. Additionally, Ames mutagenicity data from FDA/CFSAN was used to create another data set of 1535 chemicals for external validation of the model, yielding 98% coverage, 73% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 81% concordance and 84% negative predictivity. - Highlights: • A new in silico QSAR model to predict Ames mutagenicity is described. • The model is extensively validated with chemicals from the FDA and the public domain. • Validation tests show desirable high sensitivity and high negative predictivity. • The model predicted 14 reportedly difficult to predict drug impurities with accuracy. • The model is suitable to support risk evaluation of potentially mutagenic compounds.« less

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Hengartner, M P; Heekeren, K; Dvorsky, D; Walitza, S; Rössler, W; Theodoridou, A

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Altogether n=24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC]=0.65, P<.05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC=0.52, P=.730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC=0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC=0.62 (sensitivity=0.42; specificity=0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC=0.85; sensitivity=0.86; specificity=0.85; positive predictive value=0.54; negative predictive value=0.97). We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The value of negative Chlamydia trachomatis antibody in prediction of normal tubes in infertile women.

PubMed

Raoofi, Z; Barchinegad, M; Haghighi, L

2013-01-01

To evaluate the value of Chlamydia trachomatis antibody testing in prediction of at least one normal tube in infertile women. Eighty infertile women without any history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis were recruited in this cross-sectional study from 2009 to 2010. The patients underwent hysterosalpingography, laparoscopy, and anti Chlamydia trachomatis IgG antibody (CAT) testing. We compared laparoscopy findings and CAT regarding sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predicting value of tubal conditions. The CAT was positive in 50 patients (62.5%) and laparoscopy was positive in 32 patients (40%). The CAT was significantly higher in women with tubal disease (1.88 +/- 0.34) versus in women with normal tubes (1.21 +/- 0.28) (p = 0.003). Five out of 30 sero-negative women had unilateral tubal abnormality and none of them had bilateral tubal obstruction or severe pelvic adhesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and accuracy of the CAT in prediction of one normal tube were 100%, 42.25%, 18%, 100%, and 48.75%, respectively. The negative predictive value of CAT to predict at least one normal tube in infertile women without history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis was 100%.

Flow Test to Predict Early Hypotony and Hypertensive Phase After Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) Surgical Implantation.

PubMed

Cheng, Jason; Beltran-Agullo, Laura; Buys, Yvonne M; Moss, Edward B; Gonzalez, Johanna; Trope, Graham E

2016-06-01

To assess the validity of a preimplantation flow test to predict early hypotony [intraocular pressure (IOP)≤5 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and hypertensive phase (HP) (IOP>21 mm Hg) after Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) implantation. Prospective interventional study on patients receiving an AGV. A preimplantation flow test using a gravity-driven reservoir and an open manometer was performed on all AGVs. Opening pressure (OP) and closing pressure (CP) were defined as the pressure at which fluid was seen to flow or stop flowing through the AGV, respectively. OP and CP were measured twice per AGV. Patients were followed for 12 weeks. In total, 20 eyes from 19 patients were enrolled. At 12 weeks the mean IOP decreased from 29.2±9.1 to 16.8±5.2 mm Hg (P<0.01). The mean AGV OP was 17.5±5.4 mm Hg and the mean CP was 6.7±2.3 mm Hg. Early (within 2 wk postoperative) HP occurred in 37% and hypotony in 16% of cases. An 18 mm Hg cutoff for the OP gave a sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.83, positive predictive value of 0.71, and negative predictive value of 0.83 for predicting an early HP. A 7 mm Hg cutoff for the CP yielded a sensitivity of 1.0, specificity of 0.38, positive predictive value of 0.23, and negative predictive value of 1.0 for predicting hypotony. Preoperative OP and CP may predict early hypotony or HP and may be used as a guide as to which AGV valves to discard before implantation surgery.

Using an On-Line Test To Assess Reading Skills and Predict the Ability To Successfully Pass a Reading SOL Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Katherine P.

Designing a remediation program to meet students' needs involves finding out what a student knows and needs to know. An online testing program, such as eduTest, may provide the answers. This test is a versatile instrument that offers benchmark tests, grade specific tests, and strand tests in the four content areas for grades K through 8. The…

Benefit of Hepatitis C Virus Core Antigen Assay in Prediction of Therapeutic Response to Interferon and Ribavirin Combination Therapy

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Masahiko; Saito, Hidetsugu; Higashimoto, Makiko; Atsukawa, Kazuhiro; Ishii, Hiromasa

2005-01-01

A highly sensitive second-generation hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen assay has recently been developed. We compared viral disappearance and first-phase kinetics between commercially available core antigen (Ag) assays, Lumipulse Ortho HCV Ag (Lumipulse-Ag), and a quantitative HCV RNA PCR assay, Cobas Amplicor HCV Monitor test, version 2 (Amplicor M), to estimate the predictive benefit of a sustained viral response (SVR) and non-SVR in 44 genotype 1b patients treated with interferon (IFN) and ribavirin. HCV core Ag negativity could predict SVR on day 1 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 85.0%, accuracy = 86.4%), whereas RNA negativity could predict SVR on day 7 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 87.2%, accuracy = 88.6%). None of the patients who had detectable serum core Ag or RNA on day 14 achieved SVR (specificity = 100%). The predictive accuracy on day 14 was higher by RNA negativity (93.2%) than that by core Ag negativity (75.0%). The combined predictive criterion of both viral load decline during the first 24 h and basal viral load was also predictive for SVR; the sensitivities of Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were 45.5 and 47.6%, respectively, and the specificity was 100%. Amplicor-M had better predictive accuracy than Lumipulse-Ag in 2-week disappearance tests because it had better sensitivity. On the other hand, estimates of kinetic parameters were similar regardless of the detection method. Although the correlations between Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were good both before and 24 h after IFN administration, HCV core Ag seemed to be relatively lower 24 h after IFN administration than before administration. Lumipulse-Ag seems to be useful for detecting the HCV concentration during IFN therapy; however, we still need to understand the characteristics of the assay. PMID:15634970

Comparison of Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio (ACR) Between ACR Strip Test and Quantitative Test in Prediabetes and Diabetes

PubMed Central

Cho, Seon; Kim, Suyoung; Cho, Han-Ik

2017-01-01

Background Albuminuria is generally known as a sensitive marker of renal and cardiovascular dysfunction. It can be used to help predict the occurrence of nephropathy and cardiovascular disorders in diabetes. Individuals with prediabetes have a tendency to develop macrovascular and microvascular pathology, resulting in an increased risk of retinopathy, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic renal diseases. We evaluated the clinical value of a strip test for measuring the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in prediabetes and diabetes. Methods Spot urine samples were obtained from 226 prediabetic and 275 diabetic subjects during regular health checkups. Urinary ACR was measured by using strip and laboratory quantitative tests. Results The positive rates of albuminuria measured by using the ACR strip test were 15.5% (microalbuminuria, 14.6%; macroalbuminuria, 0.9%) and 30.5% (microalbuminuria, 25.1%; macroalbuminuria, 5.5%) in prediabetes and diabetes, respectively. In the prediabetic population, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy of the ACR strip method were 92.0%, 94.0%, 65.7%, 99.0%, and 93.8%, respectively; the corresponding values in the diabetic population were 80.0%, 91.6%, 81.0%, 91.1%, and 88.0%, respectively. The median [interquartile range] ACR values in the strip tests for measurement ranges of <30, 30-300, and >300 mg/g were 9.4 [6.3-15.4], 46.9 [26.5-87.7], and 368.8 [296.2-575.2] mg/g, respectively, using the laboratory method. Conclusions The ACR strip test showed high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, suggesting that the test can be used to screen for albuminuria in cases of prediabetes and diabetes. PMID:27834062

CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis for the rapid detection of errors in clinical laboratory test results.

PubMed

Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T

2016-02-01

The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Field Programmable Gate Array Single Event Effects Test Guideline Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie D.; LaBel, Kenneth A.

2018-01-01

The following are updated or new subjects added to the FPGA SEE Test Guidelines manual: academic versus mission specific device evaluation, single event latch-up (SEL) test and analysis, SEE response visibility enhancement during radiation testing, mitigation evaluation (embedded and user-implemented), unreliable design and its affects to SEE Data, testing flushable architectures versus non-flushable architectures, intellectual property core (IP Core) test and evaluation (addresses embedded and user-inserted), heavy-ion energy and linear energy transfer (LET) selection, proton versus heavy-ion testing, fault injection, mean fluence to failure analysis, and mission specific system-level single event upset (SEU) response prediction. Most sections within the guidelines manual provide information regarding best practices for test structure and test system development. The scope of this manual addresses academic versus mission specific device evaluation and visibility enhancement in IP Core testing.

NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Single Event Effects (SEE) Test Guideline Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie D.; LaBel, Kenneth A.

2018-01-01

The following are updated or new subjects added to the FPGA SEE Test Guidelines manual: academic versus mission specific device evaluation, single event latch-up (SEL) test and analysis, SEE response visibility enhancement during radiation testing, mitigation evaluation (embedded and user-implemented), unreliable design and its affects to SEE Data, testing flushable architectures versus non-flushable architectures, intellectual property core (IP Core) test and evaluation (addresses embedded and user-inserted), heavy-ion energy and linear energy transfer (LET) selection, proton versus heavy-ion testing, fault injection, mean fluence to failure analysis, and mission specific system-level single event upset (SEU) response prediction. Most sections within the guidelines manual provide information regarding best practices for test structure and test system development. The scope of this manual addresses academic versus mission specific device evaluation and visibility enhancement in IP Core testing.

The prediction of rotor rotational noise using measured fluctuating blade loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hosier, R. N.; Pegg, R. J.; Ramakrishnan, R.

1974-01-01

In tests conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center Helicopter Rotor Test Facility, simultaneous measurements of the high-frequency fluctuating aerodynamic blade loads and far-field radiated noise were made on a full-scale, nontranslating rotor system. After their characteristics were determined, the measured blade loads were used in an existing theory to predict the far-field rotational noise. A comparison of the calculated and measured rotational noise is presented with specific attention given to the effect of blade loading coefficients, chordwise loading distributions, blade loading phases, and observer azimuthal position on the predictions.

A Comparative Study of Skin Prick Test versus Serum-Specific IgE Measurement in Indian Patients with Bronchial Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis.

PubMed

Kumar, Raj; Gupta, Nitesh; Kanuga, Jayesh; Kanuga, Mansi

2015-01-01

Skin prick testing (SPT) is the 'gold standard' in the assessment of allergic sensitivity to inhalant allergens. Serum-specific immunoglobulin E (SSIgE) measurement is a complementary test. SPT is performed with antigen extracts from India while SSIgE utilises extracts derived from European antigens. To evaluate the performance of allergic assessment by SSIgE against cockroach, housefly and mosquito aeroallergens which are frequently implicated in driving respiratory allergies in India considering SPT as the 'gold standard'. Twenty patients (mean age 28.5 years; range 15-50 years) diagnosed to have bronchial asthma and/or rhinitis underwent SPT. The SSIgE levels were obtained at the same visit. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of SSIgE testing were calculated using SPT as the 'gold standard'. The correlation between SPT grading and SSIgE levels was also evaluated. The sensitivity of SSIgE testing to each of the 3 aero-allergens was > 85%. The PPV of cockroach and mosquito SSIgE was > 85%; housefly SSIgE had PPV of 68.7%. The two tests were in agreement in 85% (cockroach), 90% (mosquito) and 55% (housefly). There was a significant correlation between the grades of SPT reactions and SSIgE levels. The SSIgE has higher sensitivity and PPV, but lacks specificity. Higher sensitivity with low specificity leads to increased false positive diagnosis of allergic disease. Unlike allergenic pollens, however, insect antigen extracts from different regions seem to give comparable results, and can thus, reliably be used in the evaluation of allergy.

Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

PubMed

Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

2005-03-01

Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

PubMed

Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

2012-01-01

The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P < or = 0.05) according to quantile regression. Our results largely support a priori hypotheses of relationships between specific flow indices and relative prevalence of fish life history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

Quokka: a comprehensive tool for rapid and accurate prediction of kinase family-specific phosphorylation sites in the human proteome.

PubMed

Li, Fuyi; Li, Chen; Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T; Leier, André; Akutsu, Tatsuya; Purcell, Anthony W; Smith, A Ian; Lithgow, Trevor; Daly, Roger J; Song, Jiangning; Chou, Kuo-Chen

2018-06-27

Kinase-regulated phosphorylation is a ubiquitous type of post-translational modification (PTM) in both eukaryotic and prokaryotic cells. Phosphorylation plays fundamental roles in many signalling pathways and biological processes, such as protein degradation and protein-protein interactions. Experimental studies have revealed that signalling defects caused by aberrant phosphorylation are highly associated with a variety of human diseases, especially cancers. In light of this, a number of computational methods aiming to accurately predict protein kinase family-specific or kinase-specific phosphorylation sites have been established, thereby facilitating phosphoproteomic data analysis. In this work, we present Quokka, a novel bioinformatics tool that allows users to rapidly and accurately identify human kinase family-regulated phosphorylation sites. Quokka was developed by using a variety of sequence scoring functions combined with an optimized logistic regression algorithm. We evaluated Quokka based on well-prepared up-to-date benchmark and independent test datasets, curated from the Phospho.ELM and UniProt databases, respectively. The independent test demonstrates that Quokka improves the prediction performance compared with state-of-the-art computational tools for phosphorylation prediction. In summary, our tool provides users with high-quality predicted human phosphorylation sites for hypothesis generation and biological validation. The Quokka webserver and datasets are freely available at http://quokka.erc.monash.edu/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Comparison of the effectiveness of a PAMG-1 test and standard clinical assessment in the prediction of preterm birth and reduction of unnecessary hospital admissions.

PubMed

Lotfi, Ghassan; Faraz, Saima; Nasir, Razan; Somini, Sreenisha; Abdeldayem, Rasha M; Koratkar, Raghunandini; Alsawalhi, Nadia; Ammar, Abeer

2017-10-26

The purpose of this study is to first compare the performance of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to that of standard clinical assessment (SCA) for the risk assessment of spontaneous preterm delivery (sPTD) among women with symptoms of preterm labor (PTL) and then calculate the potential impact on unnecessary admission reduction. Patients of gestational age 24 0/7 -36 6/7 with PTL symptoms, cervical dilatation ≤3 cm, no intercourse within 24 h, and clinically intact membranes were recruited consecutively into this prospective observational study. Specificity (SP), sensitivity (SN), positive-predictive value (PPV), and negative-predictive value (NPV) for the PAMG-1 test and SCA, for which a positive result was defined as patient admission, for predicting spontaneous delivery ≤7 and ≤14 d of presentation were calculated. One hundred and forty-eight patients were included in the analysis, 132 of which had both SCA and PAMG-1 results available. For the prediction of sPTD ≤7 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 10% and 100%, and 71% and 98%, respectively. For prediction of sPTD ≤14 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 14% and 100%, and 86% and 96%, respectively. Sixty-one per cent (81/132) of patients were admitted for treatment and/or observation. Our study reinforces the critical role of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to aid in risk assessment of imminent spontaneous preterm delivery in patients with symptoms of PTL. The PAMG-1 test was found to be statistically superior to standard clinical assessment alone, with respect to specificity. Based on our data, the introduction of a PAMG-1 test result into clinical decision making could reduce up to 91% of unnecessary admissions for women presenting with threatened preterm labor.

Prediction of Low-Temperature Cracking Using Superpave Binder Specifications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-02-01

Six different AC-20 asphalt cements were used in a Pennsylvania project in September 1976. Two of the six test pavements developed low-temperature cracking in January 1977. The remaining four test pavements started to develop cracks to different degr...

Overgeneral Autobiographical Memory and Chronic Interpersonal Stress as Predictors of the Course of Depression in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Sumner, Jennifer A.; Griffith, James W.; Mineka, Susan; Rekart, Kathleen Newcomb; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Craske, Michelle G.

2012-01-01

This study investigated whether overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) predicts the course of depression in adolescents. As part of a larger longitudinal study of risk for emotional disorders, 55 adolescents with a past history of major depressive disorder or minor depressive disorder completed the Autobiographical Memory Test. Fewer specific memories predicted the subsequent onset of a major depressive episode (MDE) over a 16-month follow-up period, even when covarying baseline depressive symptoms. This main effect was qualified by an interaction between specific memories and chronic interpersonal stress: Fewer specific memories predicted greater risk of MDE onset over follow-up at high (but not low) levels of chronic interpersonal stress. Thus, our findings suggest that OGM, in interaction with chronic interpersonal stress, predicts the course of depression among adolescents, and highlight the importance of measuring interpersonal stress in OGM research. PMID:21432666

The Role of Informal Parent and Teacher Assessment in Diagnosing Learning Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sikora, Darryn M.; Plapinger, Donald S.

1997-01-01

This study compared parent and teacher perceptions of academic performance and cognitive deficits with the standardized test performance of 19 students (ages 7-13) with hearing impairments. Results indicate that parents and educators were equally skilled in predicting academic performance, but had greater difficulty predicting specific cognitive…

Explicit Processing Demands Reveal Language Modality-Specific Organization of Working Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudner, Mary; Ronnberg, Jerker

2008-01-01

The working memory model for Ease of Language Understanding (ELU) predicts that processing differences between language modalities emerge when cognitive demands are explicit. This prediction was tested in three working memory experiments with participants who were Deaf Signers (DS), Hearing Signers (HS), or Hearing Nonsigners (HN). Easily nameable…

Prediction of work metabolism from heart rate measurements in forest work: some practical methodological issues.

PubMed

Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Auger, Isabelle; Leone, Mario

2015-01-01

Individual heart rate (HR) to workload relationships were determined using 93 submaximal step-tests administered to 26 healthy participants attending physical activities in a university training centre (laboratory study) and 41 experienced forest workers (field study). Predicted maximum aerobic capacity (MAC) was compared to measured MAC from a maximal treadmill test (laboratory study) to test the effect of two age-predicted maximum HR Equations (220-age and 207-0.7 × age) and two clothing insulation levels (0.4 and 0.91 clo) during the step-test. Work metabolism (WM) estimated from forest work HR was compared against concurrent work V̇O2 measurements while taking into account the HR thermal component. Results show that MAC and WM can be accurately predicted from work HR measurements and simple regression models developed in this study (1% group mean prediction bias and up to 25% expected prediction bias for a single individual). Clothing insulation had no impact on predicted MAC nor age-predicted maximum HR equations. Practitioner summary: This study sheds light on four practical methodological issues faced by practitioners regarding the use of HR methodology to assess WM in actual work environments. More specifically, the effect of wearing work clothes and the use of two different maximum HR prediction equations on the ability of a submaximal step-test to assess MAC are examined, as well as the accuracy of using an individual's step-test HR to workload relationship to predict WM from HR data collected during actual work in the presence of thermal stress.

Non-linear behaviour of electrical parameters in porous, water-saturated rocks: a model to predict pore size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallbauer-Zadorozhnaya, Valeriya; Santarato, Giovanni; Abu Zeid, Nasser

2015-08-01

In this paper, two separate but related goals are tackled. The first one is to demonstrate that in some saturated rock textures the non-linear behaviour of induced polarization (IP) and the violation of Ohm's law not only are real phenomena, but they can also be satisfactorily predicted by a suitable physical-mathematical model, which is our second goal. This model is based on Fick's second law. As the model links the specific dependence of resistivity and chargeability of a laboratory sample to the injected current and this in turn to its pore size distribution, it is able to predict pore size distribution from laboratory measurements, in good agreement with mercury injection capillary pressure test results. This fact opens up the possibility for hydrogeophysical applications on a macro scale. Mathematical modelling shows that the chargeability acquired in the field under normal conditions, that is at low current, will always be very small and approximately proportional to the applied current. A suitable field test site for demonstrating the possible reliance of both resistivity and chargeability on current was selected and a specific measuring strategy was established. Two data sets were acquired using different injected current strengths, while keeping the charging time constant. Observed variations of resistivity and chargeability are in agreement with those predicted by the mathematical model. These field test data should however be considered preliminary. If confirmed by further evidence, these facts may lead to changing the procedure of acquiring field measurements in future, and perhaps may encourage the design and building of a new specific geo-resistivity meter. This paper also shows that the well-known Marshall and Madden's equations based on Fick's law cannot be solved without specific boundary conditions.

A test of the functional avoidance hypothesis in the development of overgeneral autobiographical memory.

PubMed

Hallford, D J; Austin, D W; Raes, F; Takano, K

2018-04-18

Overgeneral memory (OGM) refers to the failure to recall memories of specific personally experienced events, which occurs in various psychiatric disorders. One pathway through which OGM is theorized to develop is the avoidance of thinking of negative experiences, whereby cumulative avoidance may maladaptively generalize to autobiographical memory (AM) more broadly. We tested this, predicting that negative experiences would interact with avoidance to predict AM specificity. In Study 1 (N = 281), negative life events (over six months) and daily hassles (over one month) were not related to AM specificity, nor was avoidance, and no interaction was found. In Study 2 (N = 318), we revised our measurements and used an increased timeframe of 12 months for both negative life events and daily hassles. The results showed no interaction effect for negative life events, but they did show an interaction for daily hassles, whereby increased hassles and higher avoidance of thinking about them were associated with reduced AM specificity, independent of general cognitive avoidance and depressive symptoms. No evidence was found that cognitive avoidance or AM specificity moderated the effect of negative experiences on depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that life events over 6-12 months are not associated with AM specificity, but chronic daily hassles over 12 months predict reduced AM specificity when individuals avoid thinking about them. The findings provide evidence for the functional-avoidance hypothesis of OGM development and future directions for longitudinal studies.

[Application of a continual improvement approach to selecting diagnostic markers for acute pancreatitis in an emergency department].

PubMed

Salinas, María; Flores, Emilio; López-Garrigós, Maite; Díaz, Elena; Esteban, Patricia; Leiva-Salinas, Carlos

2017-01-01

To apply a continual improvement model to develop an algorithm for ordering laboratory tests to diagnose acute pancreatitis in a hospital emergency department. Quasi-experimental study using the continual improvement model (plan, do, check, adjust cycles) in 2 consecutive phases in emergency patients: amylase and lipase results were used to diagnose acute pancreatitis in the first phase; in the second, only lipase level was first determined; amylase testing was then ordered only if the lipase level fell within a certain range. We collected demographic data, number amylase and lipase tests ordered and the findings, final diagnosis, and the results of a questionnaire to evaluate satisfaction with emergency care. The first phase included 517 patients, of whom 20 had acute pancreatitis. For amylase testing sensitivity was 0.70; specificity, 0.85; positive predictive value (PPV), 17; and negative predictive value (NPV), 0.31. For lipase testing these values were sensitivity, 0.85; specificity, 0.96; PPV, 21, and NPV, 0.16. When both tests were done, sensitivity was 0.85; specificity 0.99; PPV, 85; and NPV, 0.15. The second phase included data for 4815 patients, 118 of whom had acute pancreatitis. The measures of diagnostic yield for the new algorithm were sensitivity, 0.92; specificity, 0.98; PPV, 46; and NPV, 0.08]. This study demonstrates a process for developing a protocol to guide laboratory testing in acute pancreatitis in the hospital emergency department. The proposed sequence of testing for pancreatic enzyme levels can be effective for diagnosing acute pancreatitis in patients with abdominal pain.

Conjunctivitis and Total IgE in Lacrimal Fluid: Lacrytest Screening

PubMed Central

Monzón, Susana; Arrondo, Elena; Bartra, Joan; Torres, Ferran; Basagaña, María; San Miguel, M. del Mar; Alonso, Rosario; Cisteró-Bahima, Anna

2009-01-01

Total tear IgE has been considered to play an important role in allergic conjunctivitis, and measurement has been considered useful for diagnosis. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether Lacrytest®, a new commercialised method to detect IgE levels in lacrimal fluid, could constitute a screening test for the diagnosis of allergic conjunctivitis. This was a cross-sectional study. Patients with seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis, vernal keratoconjunctivitis and a control group were included. Clinical history, ophthalmic examination, skin prick test and conjunctival provocation test were obtained. Lacrytest® was later performed in all groups. Fifty-four patients were enrolled: thirty with IgE-mediated conjunctivitis and, nine with vernal keratoconjunctivitis and fifteen controls. Lacrytest® was negative in all controls, positive in 20% of the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group and in 88.9% of the vernal keratoconjunctivitis group. Global statistically-significant differences were found among the three groups (P = .003). Sensitivity of the test in the IgE-mediated conjunctivitis group was 20%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 38.46%, while in VKC sensitivity was 88.88%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 93.75%. Our data confirm that this test is not useful for screening allergic conjunctivitis. Lacrytest®, while not providing any useful information to an allergist, could be helpful for ophthalmologists to confirm an IgE-mediated or VKC conjunctivitis. PMID:20975798

Comprehensive analysis of MGMT promoter methylation: correlation with MGMT expression and clinical response in GBM.

PubMed

Shah, Nameeta; Lin, Biaoyang; Sibenaller, Zita; Ryken, Timothy; Lee, Hwahyung; Yoon, Jae-Geun; Rostad, Steven; Foltz, Greg

2011-01-07

O⁶-methylguanine DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been identified as a potential prognostic marker for glioblastoma patients. The relationship between the exact site of promoter methylation and its effect on gene silencing, and the patient's subsequent response to therapy, is still being defined. The aim of this study was to comprehensively characterize cytosine-guanine (CpG) dinucleotide methylation across the entire MGMT promoter and to correlate individual CpG site methylation patterns to mRNA expression, protein expression, and progression-free survival. To best identify the specific MGMT promoter region most predictive of gene silencing and response to therapy, we determined the methylation status of all 97 CpG sites in the MGMT promoter in tumor samples from 70 GBM patients using quantitative bisulfite sequencing. We next identified the CpG site specific and regional methylation patterns most predictive of gene silencing and improved progression-free survival. Using this data, we propose a new classification scheme utilizing methylation data from across the entire promoter and show that an analysis based on this approach, which we call 3R classification, is predictive of progression-free survival (HR  = 5.23, 95% CI [2.089-13.097], p<0.0001). To adapt this approach to the clinical setting, we used a methylation-specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MS-MLPA) test based on the 3R classification and show that this test is both feasible in the clinical setting and predictive of progression free survival (HR  = 3.076, 95% CI [1.301-7.27], p = 0.007). We discuss the potential advantages of a test based on this promoter-wide analysis and compare it to the commonly used methylation-specific PCR test. Further prospective validation of these two methods in a large independent patient cohort will be needed to confirm the added value of promoter wide analysis of MGMT methylation in the clinical setting.

Comprehensive Analysis of MGMT Promoter Methylation: Correlation with MGMT Expression and Clinical Response in GBM

PubMed Central

Shah, Nameeta; Lin, Biaoyang; Sibenaller, Zita; Ryken, Timothy; Lee, Hwahyung; Yoon, Jae-Geun; Rostad, Steven; Foltz, Greg

2011-01-01

O6-methylguanine DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been identified as a potential prognostic marker for glioblastoma patients. The relationship between the exact site of promoter methylation and its effect on gene silencing, and the patient's subsequent response to therapy, is still being defined. The aim of this study was to comprehensively characterize cytosine-guanine (CpG) dinucleotide methylation across the entire MGMT promoter and to correlate individual CpG site methylation patterns to mRNA expression, protein expression, and progression-free survival. To best identify the specific MGMT promoter region most predictive of gene silencing and response to therapy, we determined the methylation status of all 97 CpG sites in the MGMT promoter in tumor samples from 70 GBM patients using quantitative bisulfite sequencing. We next identified the CpG site specific and regional methylation patterns most predictive of gene silencing and improved progression-free survival. Using this data, we propose a new classification scheme utilizing methylation data from across the entire promoter and show that an analysis based on this approach, which we call 3R classification, is predictive of progression-free survival (HR  = 5.23, 95% CI [2.089–13.097], p<0.0001). To adapt this approach to the clinical setting, we used a methylation-specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MS-MLPA) test based on the 3R classification and show that this test is both feasible in the clinical setting and predictive of progression free survival (HR  = 3.076, 95% CI [1.301–7.27], p = 0.007). We discuss the potential advantages of a test based on this promoter-wide analysis and compare it to the commonly used methylation-specific PCR test. Further prospective validation of these two methods in a large independent patient cohort will be needed to confirm the added value of promoter wide analysis of MGMT methylation in the clinical setting. PMID:21249131

The value of a non-sport-specific motor test battery in predicting performance in young female gymnasts.

PubMed

Vandorpe, Barbara; Vandendriessche, Joric B; Vaeyens, Roel; Pion, Johan; Lefevre, Johan; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Lenoir, Matthieu

2012-01-01

Gymnastics talent identification focuses on the identification of young gymnasts who display characteristics for potential success in the future. The aim of this study was to identify which current performance characteristics are related to performance in competition 2 years later. Twenty-three female gymnasts aged 7-8 years completed a multidimensional test battery measuring anthropometric, physical, and coordinative characteristics and were technically evaluated by expert coaches. Two years later, the all-around competition results of those gymnasts now participating in elite (n = 12) and sub-elite (n = 11) competition were obtained. None of the initial measurements significantly correlated with the results of the sub-elite gymnasts 2 years later. For the elite gymnasts, a non-sport-specific motor test battery correlated strongly with the competition result, with more than 40% of the variation in competition performance being explained by the result on that test 2 years earlier. Neither the coaches' judgement nor the anthropometric and physical characteristics were sensitive enough to predict performance. A motor coordination test might be valuable in the early identification of gymnasts, as its discriminative and predictive qualities might be sufficiently powerful for selection within a relatively homogeneous population of gymnasts exhibiting similar anthropometric and physical profiles.

Development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serodiagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle.

PubMed

Bagut, Elena Tatiana; Cambier, Ludivine; Heinen, Marie-Pierre; Cozma, Vasile; Monod, Michel; Mignon, Bernard

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to develop an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serological diagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle. We used available recombinant forms of Trichophyton rubrum dipeptidyl peptidase V (TruDppV) and T. rubrum leucin aminopeptidase 2 (TruLap2), which are 98% identical to Trichophyton verrucosum orthologues. Field serum samples from 135 cattle with ringworm infection, as confirmed by direct microscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and PCR, and from 55 cattle without any apparent skin lesions or history of ringworm infection that served as negative controls were used. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were determined to evaluate the diagnostic value of our ELISA. Overall, the ELISAs based on recombinant TruDppV and TruLap2 discriminated well between infected animals and healthy controls. Highly significant differences (P < 0.0001, Mann-Whitney U test) were noted between optical density values obtained when sera from infected versus control cattle were tested. The ELISA developed for the detection of specific antibodies against DppV gave 89.6% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, a 96.8% positive predictive value, and a 78.4% negative predictive value. The recombinant TruLap2-based ELISA displayed 88.1% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, a 95.9% positive predictive value, and a 75.7% negative predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ELISA based on recombinant antigens for assessing immune responses to ringworm infection in cattle; it is particularly suitable for epidemiological studies and also for the evaluation of vaccines and/or vaccination procedures.

Value of Different Assays for Detection of Human Cytomegalovirus (HCMV) in Predicting the Development of HCMV Disease in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients

PubMed Central

Blank, Brian S. N.; Meenhorst, Pieter L.; Mulder, Jan Willem; Weverling, Gerrit Jan; Putter, Hein; Pauw, Wouter; van Dijk, Willemien C.; Smits, Paul; Lie-A-Ling, Sonja; Reiss, Peter; Lange, Joep M. A.

2000-01-01

In the present prospective study, five blood tests for detection of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) for detection of early (immediate-early antigen) and late (pp67) mRNA, PCR for detection of HCMV DNA (DNA PCR), culture, and pp65 antigenemia assay, and culture and DNA PCR of urine and throat swab specimens were compared for their abilities to predict the development of disease caused by HCMV (HCMV disease). Of 101 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with ≤100 CD4+ lymphocytes per mm3, 25 patients developed HCMV disease. The pp65 antigenemia assay (sensitivity, 50%; specificity, 89%) and DNA PCR of blood (sensitivity, 69%; specificity, 75%) were most accurate in predicting the development of HCMV disease within the next 12 months. Both blood culture and late pp67 mRNA NASBA had high specificities (91 and 90%, respectively) but low sensitivities (25 and 13%, respectively). The sensitivities of urine culture, DNA PCR, throat swab specimen culture, DNA PCR, and NASBA of blood for detection of the immediate-early antigen were 73, 87, 53, 67, and 63%, respectively, and the specificities were 58, 46, 76, 60, and 72%, respectively. The positive predictive values of all tests however, were low and did not exceed 50%. In conclusion, virological screening by these qualitative assays for detection of HCMV is of limited value for prediction of the development of HCMV disease in HIV-infected patients. PMID:10655346

Distress among women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 results: 12-month outcomes.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Rini, Christine; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Cohen, Lawrence H; Schwartz, Marc D

2009-10-01

Few data are available regarding the long-term psychological impact of uninformative BRCA1/2 test results. This study examines change in distress from pretesting to 12-months post-disclosure, with medical, family history, and psychological variables, such as pretesting perceived risk of carrying a deleterious mutation prior to testing and primary and secondary appraisals, as predictors. Two hundred and nine women with uninformative BRCA1/2 test results completed questionnaires at pretesting and 1-, 6-, and 12-month post-disclosure, including measures of anxiety and depression, cancer-specific and genetic testing distress. We used a mixed models approach to predict change in post-disclosure distress. Distress declined from pretesting to 1-month post-disclosure, but remained stable thereafter. Primary appraisals predicted all types of distress at 1-month post-disclosure. Primary and secondary appraisals predicted genetic testing distress at 1-month as well as change over time. Receiving a variant of uncertain clinical significance and entering testing with a high expectation for carrying a deleterious mutation predicted genetic testing distress that persisted through the year after testing. As a whole, women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 test results are a resilient group. For some women, distress experienced in the month after testing does not dissipate. Variables, such as heightened pretesting perceived risk and cognitive appraisals, predict greater likelihood for sustained distress in this group and could be amenable to intervention.

The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

PubMed

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

The Predictive Value of Early Behavioural Assessments in Pet Dogs – A Longitudinal Study from Neonates to Adults

PubMed Central

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2–10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40–50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited. PMID:25003341

Determination of Aerobic Power Through a Specific Test for Taekwondo - A Predictive Equation Model

PubMed Central

Louro, Hugo; Matias, Ricardo; Brito, João; Costa, Aldo M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Our aim was to verify the concurrent validity of a maximal taekwondo specific test (TST) to predict VO2max through an explanatory model. Seventeen elite male taekwondo athletes (age: 17.59 ± 4.34 years; body height: 1.72 ± 6.5 m; body mass: 61.3 ± 8.7 kg) performed two graded maximal exercise tests on different days: a 20 m multistage shuttle run test (SRT) and an incremental TST. We recorded test time, VO2max, ventilation, a heart rate and time to exhaustion. Significant differences were found between observed and estimated VO2max values [F (2, 16) = 5.77, p < 0.01]; post-hoc subgroup analysis revealed the existence of significant differences (p = 0.04) between the estimated VO2max value in the SRT and the observed value recorded in the TST (58.4 ± 6.4 ml/kg/min and 52.6 ± 5.2 ml/kg/min, respectively). Our analysis also revealed a moderate correlation between both testing protocols regarding VO2max (r = 0.70; p = 0.005), test time (r = 0.77; p = 0.02) and ventilation (r = 0.69; p = 0.03). There was no proportional bias in the mean difference (t = -1.04; p = 0.313), and there was a level of agreement between both tests. An equation/model was used to estimate VO2max during the TST based on the mean heart rate, test time, body height and mass, which explained 74.3% of the observed VO2max variability. A moderate correlation was found between the observed and predicted VO2max values in the taekwondo TST (r = 0.74, p = 0.001). Our results suggest that an incremental specific test estimates VO2max of elite taekwondo athletes with acceptable concurrent validity. PMID:28149417

Evaluation of ID-PaGIA syphilis antibody test.

PubMed

Naaber, Paul; Makoid, Ene; Aus, Anneli; Loivukene, Krista; Poder, Airi

2009-01-01

Laboratory diagnosis of syphilis is usually accomplished by serology. There are currently a large number of different commercial treponemal tests available that vary in format, sensitivity and specificity. To evaluate the ID-PaGIA Syphilis Antibody Test as an alternative to other specific treponemal tests for primary screening or confirmation of diagnosis. Serum samples from healthy adults (n = 100) were used for detection of specificity of ID-PaGIA. To evaluate sensitivity of ID-PaGIA serum samples (n = 101) from patients with confirmed or suspected syphilis were tested for syphilis antibodies with FTA-Abs IgM, ID-PaGIA, ELISA IgM and TPHA tests. No false-positive results were found with ID-PaGIA. Sensitivity of various treponemal tests was the following: FTA-Abs IgM: 95.5%, ID-PaGIA and ELISA IgM: 94%, and TPHA 75%. The positive and negative predictive values of ID-PaGIA were 100 and 89.5%, respectively. Compared with other treponemal tests ID-PaGIA has excellent sensitivity and specificity.

Musite, a tool for global prediction of general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites.

PubMed

Gao, Jianjiong; Thelen, Jay J; Dunker, A Keith; Xu, Dong

2010-12-01

Reversible protein phosphorylation is one of the most pervasive post-translational modifications, regulating diverse cellular processes in various organisms. High throughput experimental studies using mass spectrometry have identified many phosphorylation sites, primarily from eukaryotes. However, the vast majority of phosphorylation sites remain undiscovered, even in well studied systems. Because mass spectrometry-based experimental approaches for identifying phosphorylation events are costly, time-consuming, and biased toward abundant proteins and proteotypic peptides, in silico prediction of phosphorylation sites is potentially a useful alternative strategy for whole proteome annotation. Because of various limitations, current phosphorylation site prediction tools were not well designed for comprehensive assessment of proteomes. Here, we present a novel software tool, Musite, specifically designed for large scale predictions of both general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. We collected phosphoproteomics data in multiple organisms from several reliable sources and used them to train prediction models by a comprehensive machine-learning approach that integrates local sequence similarities to known phosphorylation sites, protein disorder scores, and amino acid frequencies. Application of Musite on several proteomes yielded tens of thousands of phosphorylation site predictions at a high stringency level. Cross-validation tests show that Musite achieves some improvement over existing tools in predicting general phosphorylation sites, and it is at least comparable with those for predicting kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. In Musite V1.0, we have trained general prediction models for six organisms and kinase-specific prediction models for 13 kinases or kinase families. Although the current pretrained models were not correlated with any particular cellular conditions, Musite provides a unique functionality for training customized prediction models (including condition-specific models) from users' own data. In addition, with its easily extensible open source application programming interface, Musite is aimed at being an open platform for community-based development of machine learning-based phosphorylation site prediction applications. Musite is available at http://musite.sourceforge.net/.

The reliability and validity of using the urine dipstick test by patient self-assessment for urinary tract infection screening in spinal cord injury patients.

PubMed

Duanngai, Krit; Sirasaporn, Patpiya; Ngaosinchai, Siriwan Surapaitoon

2017-01-01

The aim of this is to evaluate the reliability of the urine dipstick test by patients' self-assessment for urinary tract infection (UTI) screening and to determine the validity of urine dipstick test. Rehabilitation Department, Srinagarind Hospital, Thailand. A diagnostic study. This study compared the urine dipstick test (index test) with the National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research (NIDRR) criteria (gold standard test) in spinal cord injury (SCI) patients. The urine dipstick test informed positive and negative results. Besides the NIDRR criteria classified as UTI and no UTI. The interrater reliability was measured in the sense of Kappa whereas the validity of urine dipstick test was reported in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR) (+LR), negative LR (-LR), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Out of the 56 participants, the kappa of urine dipstick test for leukocyte esterase, nitrite, and combined leukocyte esterase and nitrite were 0.09, 0.21, and 0.52, respectively. The nitrite urine dipstick test showed the highest sensitivity (90%). The combined leukocyte esterase and nitrite urine dipstick test gave the highest specificity (87%), PPV (60%), NPV (93%), and +LR (5.63). The interrater reliability of combined leukocyte esterase and nitrite urine dipstick test was moderate agreement. The combined leukocyte esterase and nitrite urine dipstick test showed high level of both sensitivity and specificity. The combined leukocyte esterase and nitrite urine dipstick test should be promoted for patients' self-assessment for UTI screening in SCI patients.

Combination of serum angiopoietin-2 and uterine artery Doppler for prediction of preeclampsia.

PubMed

Puttapitakpong, Ploynin; Phupong, Vorapong

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of the combination of serum angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) levels and uterine artery Doppler for the detection of preeclampsia in women at 16-18 weeks of gestation and to identify other pregnancy complications that could be predicted with these combined tests. Maternal serum Ang-2 levels were measured, and uterine artery Doppler was performed in 400 pregnant women. The main outcome was preeclampsia. The predictive values of this combination were calculated. Twenty-five women (6.3%) developed preeclampsia. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of uterine artery Doppler combined with serum Ang-2 levels for the prediction of preeclampsia were 24.0%, 94.4%, 22.2% and 94.9%, respectively. For the prediction of early-onset preeclampsia, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 57.1%, 94.1%, 14.8% and 99.2%, respectively. Patients with abnormal uterine artery Doppler and abnormal serum Ang-2 levels (above 19.5 ng ml(-1)) were at higher risk for preterm delivery (relative risk=2.7, 95% confidence interval 1.2-5.8). Our findings revealed that the combination of uterine artery Doppler and serum Ang-2 levels at 16-18 weeks of gestation can be used to predict early-onset preeclampsia but not overall preeclampsia. Thus, this combination may be a useful early second trimester screening test for the prediction of early-onset preeclampsia.

Predicting drug-induced liver injury in human with Naïve Bayes classifier approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Ding, Lan; Zou, Yi; Hu, Shui-Qing; Huang, Hai-Guo; Kong, Wei-Bao; Zhang, Ji

2016-10-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is one of the major safety concerns in drug development. Although various toxicological studies assessing DILI risk have been developed, these methods were not sufficient in predicting DILI in humans. Thus, developing new tools and approaches to better predict DILI risk in humans has become an important and urgent task. In this study, we aimed to develop a computational model for assessment of the DILI risk with using a larger scale human dataset and Naïve Bayes classifier. The established Naïve Bayes prediction model was evaluated by 5-fold cross validation and an external test set. For the training set, the overall prediction accuracy of the 5-fold cross validation was 94.0 %. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 97.1, 89.2, 93.5 and 95.1 %, respectively. The test set with the concordance of 72.6 %, sensitivity of 72.5 %, specificity of 72.7 %, positive predictive value of 80.4 %, negative predictive value of 63.2 %. Furthermore, some important molecular descriptors related to DILI risk and some toxic/non-toxic fragments were identified. Thus, we hope the prediction model established here would be employed for the assessment of human DILI risk, and the obtained molecular descriptors and substructures should be taken into consideration in the design of new candidate compounds to help medicinal chemists rationally select the chemicals with the best prospects to be effective and safe.

Role of learning potential in cognitive remediation: Construct and predictive validity.

PubMed

Davidson, Charlie A; Johannesen, Jason K; Fiszdon, Joanna M

2016-03-01

The construct, convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity of Learning Potential (LP) was evaluated in a trial of cognitive remediation for adults with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. LP utilizes a dynamic assessment approach to prospectively estimate an individual's learning capacity if provided the opportunity for specific related learning. LP was assessed in 75 participants at study entry, of whom 41 completed an eight-week cognitive remediation (CR) intervention, and 22 received treatment-as-usual (TAU). LP was assessed in a "test-train-test" verbal learning paradigm. Incremental predictive validity was assessed as the degree to which LP predicted memory skill acquisition above and beyond prediction by static verbal learning ability. Examination of construct validity confirmed that LP scores reflected use of trained semantic clustering strategy. LP scores correlated with executive functioning and education history, but not other demographics or symptom severity. Following the eight-week active phase, TAU evidenced little substantial change in skill acquisition outcomes, which related to static baseline verbal learning ability but not LP. For the CR group, LP significantly predicted skill acquisition in domains of verbal and visuospatial memory, but not auditory working memory. Furthermore, LP predicted skill acquisition incrementally beyond relevant background characteristics, symptoms, and neurocognitive abilities. Results suggest that LP assessment can significantly improve prediction of specific skill acquisition with cognitive training, particularly for the domain assessed, and thereby may prove useful in individualization of treatment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison between the two-step and the three-step algorithms for the detection of toxigenic Clostridium difficile.

PubMed

Qutub, M O; AlBaz, N; Hawken, P; Anoos, A

2011-01-01

To evaluate usefulness of applying either the two-step algorithm (Ag-EIAs and CCNA) or the three-step algorithm (all three assays) for better confirmation of toxigenic Clostridium difficile. The antigen enzyme immunoassays (Ag-EIAs) can accurately identify the glutamate dehydrogenase antigen of toxigenic and nontoxigenic Clostridium difficile. Therefore, it is used in combination with a toxin-detecting assay [cell line culture neutralization assay (CCNA), or the enzyme immunoassays for toxins A and B (TOX-A/BII EIA)] to provide specific evidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea. A total of 151 nonformed stool specimens were tested by Ag-EIAs, TOX-A/BII EIA, and CCNA. All tests were performed according to the manufacturer's instructions and the results of Ag-EIAs and TOX-A/BII EIA were read using a spectrophotometer at a wavelength of 450 nm. A total of 61 (40.7%), 38 (25.3%), and 52 (34.7%) specimens tested positive with Ag-EIA, TOX-A/BII EIA, and CCNA, respectively. Overall, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value for Ag-EIA were 94%, 87%, 96.6%, and 80.3%, respectively. Whereas for TOX-A/BII EIA, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value were 73.1%, 100%, 87.5%, and 100%, respectively. With the two-step algorithm, all 61 Ag-EIAs-positive cases required 2 days for confirmation. With the three-step algorithm, 37 (60.7%) cases were reported immediately, and the remaining 24 (39.3%) required further testing by CCNA. By applying the two-step algorithm, the workload and cost could be reduced by 28.2% compared with the three-step algorithm. The two-step algorithm is the most practical for accurately detecting toxigenic Clostridium difficile, but it is time-consuming.

Evaluation of surveillance case definition in the diagnosis of leptospirosis, using the Microscopic Agglutination Test: a validation study.

PubMed

Dassanayake, Dinesh L B; Wimalaratna, Harith; Agampodi, Suneth B; Liyanapathirana, Veranja C; Piyarathna, Thibbotumunuwe A C L; Goonapienuwala, Bimba L

2009-04-22

Leptospirosis is endemic in both urban and rural areas of Sri Lanka and there had been many out breaks in the recent past. This study was aimed at validating the leptospirosis surveillance case definition, using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT). The study population consisted of patients with undiagnosed acute febrile illness who were admitted to the medical wards of the Teaching Hospital Kandy, from 1st July 2007 to 31st July 2008. The subjects were screened to diagnose leptospirosis according to the leptospirosis case definition. MAT was performed on blood samples taken from each patient on the 7th day of fever. Leptospirosis case definition was evaluated in regard to sensitivity, specificity and predictive values, using a MAT titre >or= 1:800 for confirming leptospirosis. A total of 123 patients were initially recruited of which 73 had clinical features compatible with the surveillance case definition. Out of the 73 only 57 had a positive MAT result (true positives) leaving 16 as false positives. Out of the 50 who didn't have clinical features compatible with the case definition 45 had a negative MAT as well (true negatives), therefore 5 were false negatives. Total number of MAT positives was 62 out of 123. According to these results the test sensitivity was 91.94%, specificity 73.77%, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 78.08% and 90% respectively. Diagnostic accuracy of the test was 82.93%. This study confirms that the surveillance case definition has a very high sensitivity and negative predictive value with an average specificity in diagnosing leptospirosis, based on a MAT titre of >or= 1: 800.

Identifying students with dyslexia in higher education.

PubMed

Tops, Wim; Callens, Maaike; Lammertyn, Jan; Van Hees, Valérie; Brysbaert, Marc

2012-10-01

An increasing number of students with dyslexia enter higher education. As a result, there is a growing need for standardized diagnosis. Previous research has suggested that a small number of tests may suffice to reliably assess students with dyslexia, but these studies were based on post hoc discriminant analysis, which tends to overestimate the percentage of systematic variance, and were limited to the English language (and the Anglo-Saxon education system). Therefore, we repeated the research in a non-English language (Dutch) and we selected variables on the basis of a prediction analysis. The results of our study confirm that it is not necessary to administer a wide range of tests to diagnose dyslexia in (young) adults. Three tests sufficed: word reading, word spelling and phonological awareness, in line with the proposal that higher education students with dyslexia continue to have specific problems with reading and writing. We also show that a traditional postdiction analysis selects more variables of importance than the prediction analysis. However, these extra variables explain study-specific variance and do not result in more predictive power of the model.

Reinforcement Sensitivity and Risk for Psychopathology Following Exposure to Violence: A Vulnerability-Specificity Model in Latino Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gudino, Omar G.; Nadeem, Erum; Kataoka, Sheryl H.; Lau, Anna S.

2012-01-01

Urban Latino youth are exposed to high rates of violence, which increases risk for diverse forms of psychopathology. The current study aims to increase specificity in predicting responses by testing the hypothesis that youths' reinforcement sensitivity--behavioral inhibition (BIS) and behavioral approach (BAS)--is associated with specific clinical…

Effect of ITE and nozzle exit cone erosion on specific impulse of solid rocket motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith-Kent, Randall; Ridder, Jeffrey P.; Loh, Hai-Tien; Abel, Ralph

1993-06-01

Specific impulse loss due to the use of a slowly eroding integral throat entrance, or a throat insert, with a faster eroding nozzle exit cone is studied. It is suggested that an oblique shock wave produced by step-off erosion results in loss of specific impulse. This is studied by use of a shock capturing CFD method. The shock loss predictions for first-stage Peacekeeper and Castor 25 motors are found to match the trends of the test data. This work suggests that a loss mechanism, previously unaccounted, should be considered in the specific impulse prediction procedure for nozzles with step-off exit cone erosion.

Predicting Stereotype Threat, Test Anxiety, and Cognitive Ability Test Performance: An Examination of Three Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawyer, Jr., Thomas P.; Hollis-Sawyer, Lisa A.

2005-01-01

As the classroom and workplace, among other contexts, become more diverse in their population characteristics, the need to be aware of specific factors impacting testing outcome issues correspondingly increases. The focus in this study, among other purposes, was to identify possible interactions between examinee's individual-difference…

Working alliance and empathy as mediators of brief telephone counseling for cigarette smokers who are not ready to quit

PubMed Central

Klemperer, Elias M.; Hughes, John R.; Callas, Peter W.; Solomon, Laura J.

2016-01-01

Working alliance and empathy are believed to be important components of counseling, though few studies have empirically tested this. We recently conducted a randomized controlled trial in which brief motivational and reduction counseling failed to increase the number of participants who made a quit attempt (QA) in comparison to usual care (i.e., brief advice to quit). Our negative findings could have been due to non-specific factors. This secondary analysis used a subset of participants (n=347) to test a) whether, in comparison to usual care, brief telephone-based motivational or reduction counseling predicted greater working alliance or empathy, b) whether changes in these non-specific factors predicted an increased probability of a QA at a 6-month follow-up, and c) whether counseling affected the probability of a QA via working alliance or empathy (i.e., mediation). Findings were similar for both active counseling conditions (motivational and reduction) vs usual care. In comparison to usual care, active counseling predicted greater working alliance (p<.001) and empathy (p<.05). Greater working alliance predicted a greater probability of a QA (p<.001) but, surprisingly, greater empathy predicted a decreased probability of a QA (p<.05) at the 6-month follow-up. Both working alliance (p<.001) and empathy (p<.05) mediated the active counseling's effects on the probability of a QA. One explanation for our motivational and reduction interventions' failure to influence QAs in comparison to usual care is that working alliance and empathy had opposing effects on quitting. Our analyses illustrate how testing non-specific factors as mediators can help explain why a treatment failed. PMID:28165273

Diagnostic accuracy of uriSed automated urine microscopic sediment analyzer and dipstick parameters in predicting urine culture test results.

PubMed

Huysal, Kağan; Budak, Yasemin U; Karaca, Ayse Ulusoy; Aydos, Murat; Kahvecioğlu, Serdar; Bulut, Mehtap; Polat, Murat

2013-01-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common types of infection. Currently, diagnosis is primarily based on microbiologic culture, which is time- and labor-consuming. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of urinalysis results from UriSed (77 Electronica, Budapest, Hungary), an automated microscopic image-based sediment analyzer, in predicting positive urine cultures. We examined a total of 384 urine specimens from hospitalized patients and outpatients attending our hospital on the same day for urinalysis, dipstick tests and semi-quantitative urine culture. The urinalysis results were compared with those of conventional semiquantitative urine culture. Of 384 urinary specimens, 68 were positive for bacteriuria by culture, and were thus considered true positives. Comparison of these results with those obtained from the UriSed analyzer indicated that the analyzer had a specificity of 91.1%, a sensitivity of 47.0%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 53.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 40.8-65.3), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 88.8% (95% CI = 85.0-91.8%). The accuracy was 83.3% when the urine leukocyte parameter was used, 76.8% when bacteriuria analysis of urinary sediment was used, and 85.1% when the bacteriuria and leukocyturia parameters were combined. The presence of nitrite was the best indicator of culture positivity (99.3% specificity) but had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.7, indicating that it was not a reliable clinical test. Although the specificity of the UriSed analyzer was within acceptable limits, the sensitivity value was low. Thus, UriSed urinalysis resuIts do not accurately predict the outcome of culture.

Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

PubMed Central

Caprariello, Peter A.; Cuddy, Amy J. C.; Fiske, Susan T.

2013-01-01

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices. No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both stereotypes and prejudices. In the present study, participants (n = 120) responded to an immigration scenario depicting a high- or low-status group, competitive or not competitive, and rated their likely stereotype (on warmth and competence) and elicited emotional prejudices (admiration, contempt, envy, and pity). Seven of eight specific predictions are fully confirmed, supporting the SCM's predicted causality for social structural effects on cultural stereotypes and emotional prejudices. PMID:24285928

Preschool Neuropsychological Measures as Predictors of Later Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Breaux, Rosanna P.; Griffith, Shayl F.; Harvey, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

The present study examined preschool neuropsychological measures as predictors of school-age attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Participants included 168 children (91 males) who completed neuropsychological measures at ages 3 and 4, and who were evaluated for ADHD and oppositional defiant disorder at age 6. The Conners’ Kiddie Continuous Performance Test (K-CPT), NEPSY Statue subtest, and a delay aversion task significantly distinguished at-risk children who later did and did not meet criteria for ADHD, with poor to fair overall predictive power, specificity, and sensitivity. However, only the K-CPT ADHD Confidence Index and battery added incremental predictive validity beyond early ADHD symptoms. This battery approach, which required impairment on at least 2 of the 3 significant measures, yielded fair overall predictive power, specificity, and sensitivity, and correctly classified 67% of children. In addition, there was some support for the specificity hypothesis, with evidence that cool executive function measures (K-CPT and Statue subtest) tended to predict inattentive symptoms. These findings suggest that neuropsychological deficits are evident by preschool-age in children with ADHD, but neuropsychological tests may still misclassify approximately one-third of children if used alone. Thus, neuropsychological measures may be a useful component of early ADHD assessments, but should be used with caution and in combination with other assessment methods. PMID:26936037

Model Predictions and Observed Performance of JWST's Cryogenic Position Metrology System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Sharon R.; Rhodes, David; DiAntonio, Andrew; Boland, John; Wells, Conrad; Gigliotti, Trevis; Johanning, Gary

2016-01-01

The James Webb Space Telescope cryogenic testing requires measurement systems that both obtain a very high degree of accuracy and can function in that environment. Close-range photogrammetry was identified as meeting those criteria. Testing the capability of a close-range photogrammetric system prior to its existence is a challenging problem. Computer simulation was chosen over building a scaled mock-up to allow for increased flexibility in testing various configurations. Extensive validation work was done to ensure that the actual as-built system meet accuracy and repeatability requirements. The simulated image data predicted the uncertainty in measurement to be within specification and this prediction was borne out experimentally. Uncertainty at all levels was verified experimentally to be less than 0.1 millimeters.

Performance of the OraQuick HCV rapid antibody test for screening exposed patients in a hepatitis C outbreak investigation.

PubMed

Gao, Fengxiang; Talbot, Elizabeth A; Loring, Carol H; Power, Jill J; Dionne-Odom, Jodie; Alroy-Preis, Sharon; Jackson, Patricia; Bean, Christine L

2014-07-01

During a nosocomial hepatitis C outbreak, emergency public clinics employed the OraQuick HCV rapid antibody test on site, and all results were verified by a standard enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Of 1,157 persons, 1,149 (99.3%) exhibited concordant results between the two tests (16 positive, 1,133 negative). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 94.1%, 99.5%, 72.7%, and 99.9%, respectively. OraQuick performed well as a screening test during an outbreak investigation and could be integrated into future hepatitis C virus (HCV) outbreak testing algorithms. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Improved predictions of saturated and unsaturated zone drawdowns in a heterogeneous unconfined aquifer via transient hydraulic tomography: Laboratory sandbox experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Steven J.; Illman, Walter A.

2012-11-01

SummaryInterpretation of pumping tests in unconfined aquifers has largely been based on analytical solutions that disregard aquifer heterogeneity. In this study, we investigate whether the prediction of drawdown responses in a heterogeneous unconfined aquifer and the unsaturated zone above it with a variably saturated groundwater flow model can be improved by including information on hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss) from transient hydraulic tomography (THT). We also investigate whether these predictions are affected by the use of unsaturated flow parameters estimated through laboratory hanging column experiments or calibration of in situ drainage curves. To investigate these issues, we designed and conducted laboratory sandbox experiments to characterize the saturated and unsaturated properties of a heterogeneous unconfined aquifer. Specifically, we conducted pumping tests under fully saturated conditions and interpreted the drawdown responses by treating the medium to be either homogeneous or heterogeneous. We then conducted another pumping test and allowed the water table to drop, similar to a pumping test in an unconfined aquifer. Simulations conducted using a variably saturated flow model revealed: (1) homogeneous parameters in the saturated and unsaturated zones have a difficult time predicting the responses of the heterogeneous unconfined aquifer; (2) heterogeneous saturated hydraulic parameter distributions obtained via THT yielded significantly improved drawdown predictions in the saturated zone of the unconfined aquifer; and (3) considering heterogeneity of unsaturated zone parameters produced a minor improvement in predictions in the unsaturated zone, but not the saturated zone. These results seem to support the finding by Mao et al. (2011) that spatial variability in the unsaturated zone plays a minor role in the formation of the S-shape drawdown-time curve observed during pumping in an unconfined aquifer.

Femoral neck shaft angle width is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but not independently of femoral neck bone density.

PubMed

Ripamonti, C; Lisi, L; Avella, M

2014-05-01

To investigate the specificity of the neck shaft angle (NSA) to predict hip fracture in males. We consecutively studied 228 males without fracture and 38 with hip fracture. A further 49 males with spine fracture were studied to evaluate the specificity of NSA for hip-fracture prediction. Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (FN-BMD), NSA, hip axis length and FN diameter (FND) were measured in each subject by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Between-mean differences in the studied variables were tested by the unpaired t-test. The ability of NSA to predict hip fracture was tested by logistic regression. Compared with controls, FN-BMD (p < 0.01) was significantly lower in both groups of males with fractures, whereas FND (p < 0.01) and NSA (p = 0.05) were higher only in the hip-fracture group. A significant inverse correlation (p < 0.01) was found between NSA and FN-BMD. By age-, height- and weight-corrected logistic regression, none of the tested geometric parameters, separately considered from FN-BMD, entered the best model to predict spine fracture, whereas NSA (p < 0.03) predicted hip fracture together with age (p < 0.001). When forced into the regression, FN-BMD (p < 0.001) became the only fracture predictor to enter the best model to predict both fracture types. NSA is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but is not independent of FN-BMD. The lack of ability of NSA to predict hip fracture in males independent of FN-BMD should depend on its inverse correlation with FN-BMD by capturing, as the strongest fracture predictor, some of the effects of NSA on the hip fracture. Conversely, NSA in females does not correlate with FN-BMD but independently predicts hip fractures.

Femoral neck shaft angle width is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but not independently of femoral neck bone density

PubMed Central

Lisi, L; Avella, M

2014-01-01

Objective: To investigate the specificity of the neck shaft angle (NSA) to predict hip fracture in males. Methods: We consecutively studied 228 males without fracture and 38 with hip fracture. A further 49 males with spine fracture were studied to evaluate the specificity of NSA for hip-fracture prediction. Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (FN-BMD), NSA, hip axis length and FN diameter (FND) were measured in each subject by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Between-mean differences in the studied variables were tested by the unpaired t-test. The ability of NSA to predict hip fracture was tested by logistic regression. Results: Compared with controls, FN-BMD (p < 0.01) was significantly lower in both groups of males with fractures, whereas FND (p < 0.01) and NSA (p = 0.05) were higher only in the hip-fracture group. A significant inverse correlation (p < 0.01) was found between NSA and FN-BMD. By age-, height- and weight-corrected logistic regression, none of the tested geometric parameters, separately considered from FN-BMD, entered the best model to predict spine fracture, whereas NSA (p < 0.03) predicted hip fracture together with age (p < 0.001). When forced into the regression, FN-BMD (p < 0.001) became the only fracture predictor to enter the best model to predict both fracture types. Conclusion: NSA is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but is not independent of FN-BMD. Advances in knowledge: The lack of ability of NSA to predict hip fracture in males independent of FN-BMD should depend on its inverse correlation with FN-BMD by capturing, as the strongest fracture predictor, some of the effects of NSA on the hip fracture. Conversely, NSA in females does not correlate with FN-BMD but independently predicts hip fractures. PMID:24678889

Prediction of obeche wood-induced asthma by specific skin prick testing.

PubMed

Hannu, T; Lindström, I; Palmroos, P; Kuuliala, O; Sauni, R

2013-09-01

It has previously been shown that a positive skin prick test (SPT) result is a good predictor of a positive specific inhalation challenge (SIC) in patients with occupational asthma (OA) related to wheat or rye flours. This association has not been previously studied in OA attributable to obeche wood. To describe a clinical series of patients with OA induced by obeche wood. To investigate if the SPT result can be used as a predictor for the outcome of SIC tests. OA was diagnosed according to patient history, lung function examinations and SIC tests, as well as the determination of obeche SPTs. We analysed sensitivity, specificity and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) at different wheal sizes of the SPTs and drew receiver-operating characteristic plots using the SIC test result as the gold standard. Obeche wood SIC tests were performed on 34 symptomatic workers. Of these, 27 workers had a positive test result and were diagnosed as having OA. The minimal cut-off value with a PPV of 100% was an SPT wheal of 3.5 mm from obeche wood. This means that all workers with a wheal size of ≥ 3.5 mm from obeche wood had a positive SIC. Positive SPT results in symptomatic workers were good predictors of a positive SIC. SIC with obeche wood may be unnecessary in strongly sensitized workers.

Sex-specific genetic variance and the evolution of sexual dimorphism: a systematic review of cross-sex genetic correlations.

PubMed

Poissant, Jocelyn; Wilson, Alastair J; Coltman, David W

2010-01-01

The independent evolution of the sexes may often be constrained if male and female homologous traits share a similar genetic architecture. Thus, cross-sex genetic covariance is assumed to play a key role in the evolution of sexual dimorphism (SD) with consequent impacts on sexual selection, population dynamics, and speciation processes. We compiled cross-sex genetic correlations (r(MF)) estimates from 114 sources to assess the extent to which the evolution of SD is typically constrained and test several specific hypotheses. First, we tested if r(MF) differed among trait types and especially between fitness components and other traits. We also tested the theoretical prediction of a negative relationship between r(MF) and SD based on the expectation that increases in SD should be facilitated by sex-specific genetic variance. We show that r(MF) is usually large and positive but that it is typically smaller for fitness components. This demonstrates that the evolution of SD is typically genetically constrained and that sex-specific selection coefficients may often be opposite in sign due to sub-optimal levels of SD. Most importantly, we confirm that sex-specific genetic variance is an important contributor to the evolution of SD by validating the prediction of a negative correlation between r(MF) and SD.

Application of Mycobacterium Leprae-specific cellular and serological tests for the differential diagnosis of leprosy from confounding dermatoses.

PubMed

Freitas, Aline Araújo; Hungria, Emerith Mayra; Costa, Maurício Barcelos; Sousa, Ana Lúcia Osório Maroccolo; Castilho, Mirian Lane Oliveira; Gonçalves, Heitor Sá; Pontes, Maria Araci Andrade; Duthie, Malcolm S; Stefani, Mariane Martins Araújo

2016-10-01

Mycobacterium leprae-specific serological and cell-mediated-immunity/CMI test were evaluated for the differential diagnosis of multibacillary/MB, and paucibacillary/PB leprosy from other dermatoses. Whole-blood assay/WBA/IFNγ stimulated with LID-1 antigen and ELISA tests for IgG to LID-1 and IgM to PGL-I were performed. WBA/LID-1/IFNγ production was observed in 72% PB, 11% MB leprosy, 38% dermatoses, 40% healthy endemic controls/EC. The receiver operating curve/ROC for WBA/LID-1 in PB versus other dermatoses showed 72.5% sensitivity, 61.5% specificity and an area-under-the-curve/AUC=0.75; 74% positive predictive value/PPV, 59% negative predictive value/NPV. Anti PGL-I serology was positive in 67% MB, 8% PB leprosy, 6% of other dermatoses; its sensitivity for MB=66%, specificity=93%, AUC=0.89; PPV=91%, NPV=72%. Anti-LID-1 serology was positive in 87% MB, 7% PB leprosy, all other participants were seronegative; 87.5% sensitivity for MB, 100% specificity, AUC=0.97; PPV=100%, NPV=88%. In highly endemic areas anti-LID-1/PGL-I serology and WBA/LID-1-represent useful tools for the differential diagnosis of leprosy from other confounding dermatoses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive genetic testing for complex diseases: a public health perspective

PubMed Central

Marzuillo, C.; De Vito, C.; D’Andrea, E.; Rosso, A.

2014-01-01

From a public health perspective, systematic, evidence-based technology assessments and economic evaluations are needed to guide the incorporation of genomics into clinical and public health practice. However, scientific evidence on the effectiveness of predictive genetic tests is difficult to obtain. This review first highlights the similarities and differences between traditional screening tests and predictive genetic testing for complex diseases and goes on to describe frameworks for the evaluation of genetic testing that have been developed in recent years providing some evidence that currently genetic tests are not used in an appropriate way. Nevertheless, evidence-based recommendations are already available for some genomic applications that can reduce morbidity and mortality and many more are expected to emerge over the next decade. The time is now ripe for the introduction of a range of genetic tests into healthcare practice, but this will require the development of specific health policies, proper public health evaluations, organizational changes within the healthcare systems, capacity building among the healthcare workforce and the education of the public. PMID:24049051

Science Library of Test Items. Volume Twelve. Mastery Testing Programme. [Mastery Tests Series 4.] Tests M39-M50.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New South Wales Dept. of Education, Sydney (Australia).

As part of a series of tests to measure mastery of specific skills in the natural sciences, copies of tests 39 through 50 include: (39) using a code; (40) naming the parts of a microscope; (41) calculating density and predicting flotation; (42) estimating metric length; (43) using SI symbols; (44) using s=vt; (45) applying a novel theory; (46)…

Role of test motivation in intelligence testing.

PubMed

Duckworth, Angela Lee; Quinn, Patrick D; Lynam, Donald R; Loeber, Rolf; Stouthamer-Loeber, Magda

2011-05-10

Intelligence tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance, and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ) scores and later-life outcomes are typically interpreted as unbiased estimates of the effect of intellectual ability on academic, professional, and social life outcomes. The current investigation critically examines these assumptions and finds evidence against both. First, we examined whether motivation is less than maximal on intelligence tests administered in the context of low-stakes research situations. Specifically, we completed a meta-analysis of random-assignment experiments testing the effects of material incentives on intelligence-test performance on a collective 2,008 participants. Incentives increased IQ scores by an average of 0.64 SD, with larger effects for individuals with lower baseline IQ scores. Second, we tested whether individual differences in motivation during IQ testing can spuriously inflate the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes. Trained observers rated test motivation among 251 adolescent boys completing intelligence tests using a 15-min "thin-slice" video sample. IQ score predicted life outcomes, including academic performance in adolescence and criminal convictions, employment, and years of education in early adulthood. After adjusting for the influence of test motivation, however, the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes was significantly diminished, particularly for nonacademic outcomes. Collectively, our findings suggest that, under low-stakes research conditions, some individuals try harder than others, and, in this context, test motivation can act as a third-variable confound that inflates estimates of the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes.

Role of test motivation in intelligence testing

PubMed Central

Duckworth, Angela Lee; Quinn, Patrick D.; Lynam, Donald R.; Loeber, Rolf; Stouthamer-Loeber, Magda

2011-01-01

Intelligence tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance, and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ) scores and later-life outcomes are typically interpreted as unbiased estimates of the effect of intellectual ability on academic, professional, and social life outcomes. The current investigation critically examines these assumptions and finds evidence against both. First, we examined whether motivation is less than maximal on intelligence tests administered in the context of low-stakes research situations. Specifically, we completed a meta-analysis of random-assignment experiments testing the effects of material incentives on intelligence-test performance on a collective 2,008 participants. Incentives increased IQ scores by an average of 0.64 SD, with larger effects for individuals with lower baseline IQ scores. Second, we tested whether individual differences in motivation during IQ testing can spuriously inflate the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes. Trained observers rated test motivation among 251 adolescent boys completing intelligence tests using a 15-min “thin-slice” video sample. IQ score predicted life outcomes, including academic performance in adolescence and criminal convictions, employment, and years of education in early adulthood. After adjusting for the influence of test motivation, however, the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes was significantly diminished, particularly for nonacademic outcomes. Collectively, our findings suggest that, under low-stakes research conditions, some individuals try harder than others, and, in this context, test motivation can act as a third-variable confound that inflates estimates of the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes. PMID:21518867

Measurement of urinary metanephrines to screen for pheochromocytoma in an unselected hospital referral population

PubMed Central

Brain, Keith L.; Kay, Jonathan; Shine, Brian

2009-01-01

Background Despite the rarity of pheochromocytoma, the dangers of uncontrolled severe hypertension and the very effective surgical treatment of this condition mean that diagnosis is important. Urinary or plasma catecholamines or catecholamine-derivatives are commonly used to screen for pheochromocytomas prior to imaging. This study investigates whether derived measures obtained from 24-hour urinary metanephrine results, patient age and sex can better predict tumors in populations with a low pre-test probability. Methods This study takes a pragmatic approach by retrospectively studying the outcomes of an unselected population referred for urinary metanephrine testing (1819 patients) to a tertiary hospital laboratory, and investigates the usefulness of some simple derivative measures for detecting pheochromocytoma. Urinary 24-hour excretion of metanephrine, normetanephrine and 3-methoxytyramine were normalized by dividing by an age- and sex- specific reference range. The ability of products of these normalized measures to predict pheochromocytomas was assessed, compared to a gold standard of biopsy-confirmed tumor. Results The normalized product of urinary metanephrine and normetanephrine excretion (nMAD.nNMT) proved to be a highly sensitive (100%) and specific (99.1%) measure yielding a positive predictive value 82%. Receiver-operator characteristic curves were not improved by including the normalized 3-methoxytyramine concentrations in the product. nMAD.nNMT gave higher sensitivity and specificity than either test alone. Conclusion We suggest that nMAD.nNMT is a useful measure for identifying pheochromocytoma in a population with a low pre-test probability. PMID:16990424

MPT64 antigen detection test improves routine diagnosis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in a low-resource setting: A study from the tertiary care hospital in Zanzibar.

PubMed

Jørstad, Melissa Davidsen; Marijani, Msafiri; Dyrhol-Riise, Anne Ma; Sviland, Lisbet; Mustafa, Tehmina

2018-01-01

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is a diagnostic challenge. An immunochemistry-based MPT64 antigen detection test (MPT64 test) has reported higher sensitivity in the diagnosis of EPTB compared with conventional methods. The objective of this study was to implement and evaluate the MPT64 test in routine diagnostics in a low-resource setting. Patients with presumptive EPTB were prospectively enrolled at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, Zanzibar, and followed to the end of treatment. Specimens collected were subjected to routine diagnostics, GeneXpert® MTB/RIF assay and the MPT64 test. The performance of the MPT64 test was assessed using a composite reference standard, defining the patients as tuberculosis (TB) cases or non-TB cases. Patients (n = 132) were classified as confirmed TB (n = 12), probable TB (n = 34), possible TB (n = 18), non-TB (n = 62) and uncategorized (n = 6) cases. Overall, in comparison to the composite reference standard for diagnosis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the MPT64 test was 69%, 95%, 94%, 75% and 82%, respectively. The MPT64 test performance was best in TB lymphadenitis cases (n = 67, sensitivity 79%, specificity 97%) and in paediatric TB (n = 41, sensitivity 100%, specificity 96%). We show that the MPT64 test can be implemented in routine diagnostics in a low-resource setting and improves the diagnosis of EPTB, especially in TB lymphadenitis and in children.

Simultaneous prediction of binding free energy and specificity for PDZ domain-peptide interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crivelli, Joseph J.; Lemmon, Gordon; Kaufmann, Kristian W.; Meiler, Jens

2013-12-01

Interactions between protein domains and linear peptides underlie many biological processes. Among these interactions, the recognition of C-terminal peptides by PDZ domains is one of the most ubiquitous. In this work, we present a mathematical model for PDZ domain-peptide interactions capable of predicting both affinity and specificity of binding based on X-ray crystal structures and comparative modeling with R osetta. We developed our mathematical model using a large phage display dataset describing binding specificity for a wild type PDZ domain and 91 single mutants, as well as binding affinity data for a wild type PDZ domain binding to 28 different peptides. Structural refinement was carried out through several R osetta protocols, the most accurate of which included flexible peptide docking and several iterations of side chain repacking and backbone minimization. Our findings emphasize the importance of backbone flexibility and the energetic contributions of side chain-side chain hydrogen bonds in accurately predicting interactions. We also determined that predicting PDZ domain-peptide interactions became increasingly challenging as the length of the peptide increased in the N-terminal direction. In the training dataset, predicted binding energies correlated with those derived through calorimetry and specificity switches introduced through single mutations at interface positions were recapitulated. In independent tests, our best performing protocol was capable of predicting dissociation constants well within one order of magnitude of the experimental values and specificity profiles at the level of accuracy of previous studies. To our knowledge, this approach represents the first integrated protocol for predicting both affinity and specificity for PDZ domain-peptide interactions.

Estimating the diagnostic accuracy of rheumatoid factor in UK primary care: a study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PubMed

Miller, Anne; Nightingale, Alison L; Sammon, Cormac J; Mahtani, Kamal R; Holt, Tim A; McHugh, Neil J; Luqmani, Raashid A

2015-10-01

To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of RF as a test for RA in primary care and its impact on referral times using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We identified all patients with a first RF test recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2008 and those diagnosed with RA within 2 years of testing. We calculated likelihood ratios (LRs), sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of RF for a diagnosis of RA. We compared time to hospital referral in those testing positive and negative using Kaplan-Meier failure curves and log-rank tests. Of 62 436 first RF tests, 4679 (7.5%) were positive. There were 1753 incident cases of RA, of which 57.8% were seropositive. The positive LR for RF was 9.5 (95% CI 9.0, 10.0) and the negative LR was 0.5 (95% CI 0.4, 0.5). Sensitivity and specificity were 57.8% (95% CI 55.4%, 60.1%) and 93.9% (95% CI 93.7%, 94.1%) and the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 21.4% (95% CI 20.3%, 22.6%) and 98.7% (95% CI 98.6%, 98.8%), respectively. Median time to first hospital contact after the first RF test in those with seropositive vs seronegative results was 54 days (95% CI 49, 58) vs 150 (95% CI 147, 152). Only 2.8% of patients undergoing RF testing were diagnosed with RA, suggesting that RF is used to screen patients with musculoskeletal symptoms rather than those with more specific features of RA. A positive RF test may be helpful in diagnosing RA in primary care but performs badly in excluding RA and may delay referral. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prospective evaluation of a screening protocol to exclude deep vein thrombosis on the basis of a combination of quantitative D-dimer testing and pretest clinical probability score.

PubMed

Yamaki, Takashi; Nozaki, Motohiro; Sakurai, Hiroyuki; Takeuchi, Masaki; Soejima, Kazutaka; Kono, Taro

2005-11-01

Clinical signs and symptoms such as swelling, pain, and redness are unreliable markers of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Because of this venous duplex scanning (VDS) has been heavily used in DVT detection. The purpose of this study was to determine if a combination of D-dimer testing and pretest clinical score could reduce the use of VDS in symptomatic patients with suspected DVT. One hundred seventy-four consecutive patients with suspected DVT were prospectively evaluated using pretest clinical probability (PCP) score and D-dimer testing before VDS. After calculating clinical probability scores developed by Wells and associates, patients were divided into low risk (or=3 points) PCP. One hundred fifty-eight patients were enrolled. The prevalence of DVT in this study was 37%. Thirty-eight patients (24%) were classified as low risk, 64 (41%) as moderate risk, and 56 (35%) as high risk PCP. DVT was identified in only one patient (2.6%) with low risk PCP. In contrast, DVT was found in 22 (34%) with moderate risk, and 35 (63%) with high risk PCP. In the high and moderate risk PCP groups, positive scan patients had a markedly higher value of D-dimer assay than negative scan patients (p=0.0001 and p=0.0057, respectively). In the low risk PCP patients, D-dimer testing provided 100% sensitivity, 46% specificity, 4.8% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. Similarly, in the moderate risk PCP, the D-dimer testing showed 100% sensitivity, 45% specificity, 49% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. In the high risk group, D-dimer testing achieved 100% sensitivity, 57% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. These results suggested that 36 of 158 patients who had a non-high PCP (low and moderate PCP) and a normal D-dimer concentration were considered to have no additional investigation, so VDS could have been reduced by 23% (36/158). A combination of D-dimer testing and clinical probability score may be effective in avoiding unnecessary VDS in suspected symptomatic DVT in the low and moderate PCP patients. The need for VDS could be reduced by 23% despite a relatively high prevalence of DVT.

Prediction of Dementia in Primary Care Patients

PubMed Central

Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Bickel, Horst; Eiffländer-Gorfer, Sandra; Fuchs, Angela; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Köhler, Mirjam; Luck, Tobias; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.; Wagner, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Maier, Wolfgang; van den Bussche, Hendrik

2011-01-01

Background Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. Conclusions The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs. PMID:21364746

Prediction of dementia in primary care patients.

PubMed

Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Bickel, Horst; Eiffländer-Gorfer, Sandra; Fuchs, Angela; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Köhler, Mirjam; Luck, Tobias; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Wagner, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Maier, Wolfgang; van den Bussche, Hendrik

2011-02-18

Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs.

An intradermal skin test for determination of immunity to varicella

PubMed Central

Somekh, E; Bujanover, Y; Tal, G; Dalal, I; Tanay, A; Lehman, D

2001-01-01

AIMS—To evaluate the usefulness of a diluted, inactivated solution of attenuated varicella vaccine in predicting susceptibility to varicella and its correlation with specific antibody titre to varicella.
METHODS—In a prospective blinded study, 63 healthy subjects (aged 2-43 years) were studied. Skin test solution was prepared from vials of OKA strain virus which was inactivated by exposure of the vials to room temperature for 10 days; solution was diluted at 1/50 with normal saline and kept at 4°C until used for skin testing. The material was injected intradermally. Serum samples were drawn prior to skin testing and kept at −70°C until analysis for antibody assay by the indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) method.
RESULTS—Forty three patients were IFA antibody positive; 41 of them reacted to the skin test. One of the 20 IFA negative patients reacted to the skin test. Sixteen patients had two serological tests performed, one month apart. Four out of these 16 patients tested negative with the skin test. All four had negative serology on both samples. Six of the 12 IFA positive patients showed a boost in the antibody titre one month after application of the skin test. The specificity and sensitivity of the skin test compared to the IFA assay were both 95%, and the positive and negative predictive values were 97% and 90% respectively.
CONCLUSIONS—Results suggest that a varicella skin test prepared using this simple and relatively cheap method is a safe, sensitive, and specific tool by which to assess immunity to varicella.

 PMID:11719333

The predictive value of self-report questions in a clinical decision rule for pediatric lead poisoning screening.

PubMed

Kaplowitz, Stan A; Perlstadt, Harry; D'Onofrio, Gail; Melnick, Edward R; Baum, Carl R; Kirrane, Barbara M; Post, Lori A

2012-01-01

We derived a clinical decision rule for determining which young children need testing for lead poisoning. We developed an equation that combines lead exposure self-report questions with the child's census-block housing and socioeconomic characteristics, personal demographic characteristics, and Medicaid status. This equation better predicts elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than one using ZIP code and Medicaid status. A survey regarding potential lead exposure was administered from October 2001 to January 2003 to Michigan parents at pediatric clinics (n=3,396). These self-report survey data were linked to a statewide clinical registry of blood lead level (BLL) tests. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and then used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the equation. The census-block group prediction equation explained 18.1% of the variance in BLLs. Replacing block group characteristics with the self-report questions and dichotomized ZIP code risk explained only 12.6% of the variance. Adding three self-report questions to the census-block group model increased the variance explained to 19.9% and increased specificity with no loss in sensitivity in detecting EBLLs of ≥ 10 micrograms per deciliter. Relying solely on self-reports of lead exposure predicted BLL less effectively than the block group model. However, adding three of 13 self-report questions to our clinical decision rule significantly improved prediction of which children require a BLL test. Using the equation as the clinical decision rule would annually eliminate more than 7,200 unnecessary tests in Michigan and save more than $220,000.

Diamond Tool Specific Wear Rate Assessment in Granite Machining by Means of Knoop Micro-Hardness and Process Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goktan, R. M.; Gunes Yılmaz, N.

2017-09-01

The present study was undertaken to investigate the potential usability of Knoop micro-hardness, both as a single parameter and in combination with operational parameters, for sawblade specific wear rate (SWR) assessment in the machining of ornamental granites. The sawing tests were performed on different commercially available granite varieties by using a fully instrumented side-cutting machine. During the sawing tests, two fundamental productivity parameters, namely the workpiece feed rate and cutting depth, were varied at different levels. The good correspondence observed between the measured Knoop hardness and SWR values for different operational conditions indicates that it has the potential to be used as a rock material property that can be employed in preliminary wear estimations of diamond sawblades. Also, a multiple regression model directed to SWR prediction was developed which takes into account the Knoop hardness, cutting depth and workpiece feed rate. The relative contribution of each independent variable in the prediction of SWR was determined by using test statistics. The prediction accuracy of the established model was checked against new observations. The strong prediction performance of the model suggests that its framework may be applied to other granites and operational conditions for quantifying or differentiating the relative wear performance of diamond sawblades.

Exercise-induced oxygen desaturation in COPD patients without resting hypoxemia.

PubMed

Andrianopoulos, Vasileios; Franssen, Frits M E; Peeters, Jos P I; Ubachs, Tim J A; Bukari, Halah; Groenen, Miriam; Burtin, Chris; Vogiatzis, Ioannis; Wouters, Emiel F M; Spruit, Martijn A

2014-01-01

Exercise-induced oxygen desaturation (EID) is associated with increased risk of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Several screening tests have been proposed to predict EID, including FEV1, DLCO and baseline-SpO2. We aimed to validate a proposed cut-off of baseline-SpO2 ≤95% as simple screening procedure to predict EID during six-minute walk test (6MWT). In addition, we studied the prevalence and characteristics of patients exhibited EID to SpO2nadir ≤88%. 402 non-hypoxemic COPD patients performed 6MWT. Sensitivity and specificity of baseline SpO2 ≤95% as a cut-off to predict EID and determinants of EID were investigated. 158 patients (39%) exhibited EID. The sensitivity of baseline-SpO2 ≤95% to predict EID was 81.0%, specificity 49.2%, positive and negative predictive values were 50.8% and 80.0%, respectively. In a multivariate model, DLCO <50%, FEV1 <45%, PaO2 <10kPa, baseline-SpO2 <95%, and female sex were the strongest determinants of EID. Baseline oxygen saturation solely is inaccurate to predict EID. A combination of clinical characteristics (DLCO, FEV1, PaO2, baseline-SpO2, sex) increases the odds for EID in COPD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time-to-positivity, type of culture media and oxidase test performed on positive blood culture vials to predict Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli bacteraemia.

PubMed

Cobos-Triguero, N; Zboromyrska, Y; Morata, L; Alejo, I; De La Calle, C; Vergara, A; Cardozo, C; Arcas, M P; Soriano, A; Marco, F; Mensa, J; Almela, M; Martínez, J A

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of oxidase test and time-to-positivity (TTP) in aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vials to detect the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) bacteraemia. TTP was recorded for each aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vial of monomicrobial bacteraemia due to GNB. Oxidase test was performed in a pellet of the centrifuged content of the positive blood culture. An algorithm was developed in order to perform the oxidase test efficiently taking into account TTP and type of vial. A total of 341 episodes of GNB bacteraemia were analysed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the oxidase test performed on positive vials with GNB to predict P. aeruginosa were 95%, 99%, 91%, and 99%, respectively. When growth was first or exclusively detected in anaerobic vials, P. aeruginosa was never identified hence the performance of the oxidase test could be avoided. When growth was only or first detected in aerobic vials, a TTP≥8h predicted P. aeruginosa in 37% or cases (63 of 169), therefore oxidase test is highly recommended. Oxidase test performed onto positive blood culture vials previously selected by TTP and type of vials is an easy and inexpensive way to predict P. aeruginosa. In most cases, this can lead to optimization of treatment in less than 24 hours.

Investigating the Predictive Validity of "TOEFL iBT"® Test Scores and Their Use in Informing Policy in a United Kingdom University Setting. "TOEFL iBT"® Research Report. TOEFL iBT-30. ETS Research Report. RR-17-41

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harsch, Claudia; Ushloda, Ema; Ladroue, Christophe

2017-01-01

The project examined the predictive validity of the "TOEFL iBT"® test with a focus on the relationship between TOEFL iBT scores and students' subsequent academic success in postgraduate studies in one leading university in the United Kingdom, paying specific attention to the role of linguistic preparedness as perceived by students and…

"I'll Remember This!" Effects of Emotionality on Memory Predictions versus Memory Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Carissa A.; Kelley, Colleen M.

2010-01-01

Emotionality is a key component of subjective experience that influences memory. We tested how the emotionality of words affects memory monitoring, specifically, judgments of learning, in both cued recall and free recall paradigms. In both tasks, people predicted that positive and negative emotional words would be recalled better than neutral…

Nonlinear Dynamics: Theoretical Perspectives and Application to Suicidology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schiepek, Gunter; Fartacek, Clemens; Sturm, Josef; Kralovec, Karl; Fartacek, Reinhold; Ploderl, Martin

2011-01-01

Despite decades of research, the prediction of suicidal behavior remains limited. As a result, searching for more specific risk factors and testing their predictive power are central in suicidology. This strategy may be of limited value because it assumes linearity to the suicidal process that is most likely nonlinear by nature and which can be…

Predicting University Performance in Psychology: The Role of Previous Performance and Discipline-Specific Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betts, Lucy R.; Elder, Tracey J.; Hartley, James; Blurton, Anthony

2008-01-01

Recent initiatives to enhance retention and widen participation ensure it is crucial to understand the factors that predict students' performance during their undergraduate degree. The present research used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to test three separate models that examined the extent to which British Psychology students' A-level entry…

Is the Mind Inherently Forward-Looking? Comparing Prediction and Retrodiction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Jason; Pashler, Harold

2007-01-01

It has been suggested that prediction may be an organizing principle of the mind and/or the neocortex, with cognitive machinery specifically engineered to detect forward-looking temporal relationships, rather than merely associating temporally contiguous events. There is a remarkable absence of behavioral tests of this idea, however. To address…

Wind ripples in low density atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, J. S.; Marshall, J. R.; Greeley, R.

1987-01-01

The effect of varying fluid density (rho) on particle transport was examined by conducting tests at atmospheric pressures between 1 and 0.004 bar in the Martian Surface Wind Tunnel (MARSWIT). This study specifically concerns the effect of varying rho on the character of wind ripples, and elicits information concerning generalized ripple models as well as specific geological circumstances for ripple formation such as those prevailing on Mars. Tests were conducted primarily with 95 micron quartz sand, and for each atmospheric pressure chosen, tests were conducted at two freestream wind speeds: 1.1 U*(t) and 1.5 U*(t), where U*(t) is saltation threshold. Preliminary analysis of the data suggests: (1) ballistic ripple wavelength is not at variance with model predictions; (2) an atmospheric pressure of approximately 0.2 bar could represent a discontinuity in ripple behavior; and (4) ripple formation on Mars may not be readily predicted by extrapolation of terrestrial observations.

Diagnosis and monitoring of HCV infection using the cobas® HCV test for use on the cobas® 6800/8800 systems.

PubMed

Yao, Joseph D; Young, Stephen; Heilek, Gabrielle M; Marino, Enrique; Paxinos, Ellen E; Marins, Ed G; Valsamakis, Alexandra

2018-05-01

Accurate, sensitive, and specific tests for detection and monitoring of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA concentrations are essential for diagnosis and management of HCV infections. We evaluated the next-generation reverse-transcription real-time PCR test, cobas ® HCV test for use with the cobas ® 6800/8800 systems ("cobas HCV") by determining its analytical performance characteristics and clinical utility for the diagnosis and therapeutic monitoring of chronic HCV infections. The limit of detection (LOD), linearity, precision, specificity, matrix equivalence of plasma and serum, and quantitative agreement with the COBAS ® AmpliPrep/COBAS ® TaqMan ® HCV Test version 2.0 ("CAP/CTM HCV v2") were evaluated. Clinical utility for the diagnosis of chronic HCV infection was demonstrated by testing plasma from HCV seropositive individuals and comparing results to a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) approved for use in the diagnosis of chronic hepatitis C. Clinical specificity was investigated by testing plasma from HCV antibody negative subjects with non-HCV related liver diseases. Utility for monitoring treatment response was defined by testing plasma collected during treatment of HCV genotypes (GT) 1, 2, and 3 and determining positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and the odds ratio (OR) for predicting cure (sustained virologic response 12 weeks after treatment cessation, "SVR12"). The cobas HCV test demonstrated an LOD of at least 15 IU/mL and measurable range from 15 to at least 1.0E + 08 IU/mL (1.2-8.0 log 10 IU/mL) for GT 1-6, with high accuracy (≤0.16 log 10 difference) and precision (standard deviation 0.04-0.14 log 10 ) throughout the linear range. Paired plasma and serum samples showed highly correlated performance (R 2  = 0.97). Quantification was 100% specific for HCV in analytical studies. Correlation with CAP/CTM HCV v2 was high in patient samples (mean titer difference: 0.05 log 10 with a 95% CI: 0.03-0.06 log 10 ). For the diagnosis of chronic HCV, positive and negative percent agreement between cobas HCV and the comparator NAAT were 98.8-100% on the cobas 6800 and 8800 systems. Clinical specificity of cobas HCV using samples from HCV antibody negative subjects with non-HCV related liver diseases was 99.6% and 100% on cobas 6800 and 8800 systems. In therapeutic monitoring and SVR12 prediction during experimental treatment for chronic HCV GT 1 infections, undetectable HCV RNA by cobas HCV at different on-treatment weeks had a PPV 76.8%-79.4%, NPV 29.9%-100%, and OR 1.64-47.52. During therapy of HCV GT 2 and GT 3, treatment week 4 and 12 results were: PPV, 84.7% and 75.3%; NPV, 47.8% and 50.0%; OR, 5.09 and 3.05. The cobas HCV test is highly sensitive, specific, and accurate HCV RNA test for GT 1-6. It demonstrates excellent correlation with the FDA-approved CAP/CTM HCV v2 test. It is useful clinically for detection of active HCV infection in individuals that have had a positive anti-HCV antibody test result and in monitoring treatment response. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revisiting the rise and fall of false recall: presentation rate effects depend on retention interval.

PubMed

Smith, Troy A; Kimball, Daniel R

2012-01-01

Leading theories of false memory predict that veridical and false recall of lists of semantically associated words can be dissociated by varying the presentation speed during study. Specifically, as presentation rate increases from milliseconds to seconds, veridical recall is predicted to increase monotonically while false recall is predicted to show a rapid rise and then a slow decrease--a pattern shown by McDermott and Watson (2001) in a study using immediate recall tests. In three experiments we tested the generality of the effects of rapid presentation rates on veridical and false memory. In Experiments 1 and 2 participants exhibited high levels of false recall on a delayed recall test, even for very fast stimulus onset asynchronies (SOA)--contrary to predictions from leading theories of false memory. When we switched to an immediate recall test in Experiment 3 we replicated the pattern predicted by the theories and observed by McDermott and Watson. Follow-up analyses further showed that the relative output position of false recalls is not affected by presentation rate, contrary to predictions from fuzzy trace theory. Implications for theories of false memory, including activation monitoring theory and fuzzy trace theory, are discussed.

Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

PubMed

Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

2013-07-01

Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice across the political spectrum, but social issues are most divisive.

PubMed

Crawford, Jarret T; Brandt, Mark J; Inbar, Yoel; Chambers, John R; Motyl, Matt

2017-03-01

Liberals and conservatives both express prejudice toward ideologically dissimilar others (Brandt et al., 2014). Previous work on ideological prejudice did not take advantage of evidence showing that ideology is multidimensional, with social and economic ideologies representing related but separable belief systems. In 5 studies (total N = 4912), we test 3 competing hypotheses of a multidimensional account of ideological prejudice. The dimension-specific symmetry hypothesis predicts that social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice against targets who are perceived to vary on the social and economic political dimensions, respectively. The social primacy hypothesis predicts that such ideological worldview conflict is experienced more strongly along the social than economic dimension. The social-specific asymmetry hypothesis predicts that social conservatives will be more prejudiced than social liberals, with no specific hypotheses for the economic dimension. Using multiple target groups, multiple prejudice measures (e.g., global evaluations, behavior), and multiple social and economic ideology measures (self-placement, issue positions), we found relatively consistent support for the dimension-specific symmetry and social primacy hypotheses, and no support for the social-specific asymmetry hypothesis. These results suggest that worldview conflict and negative intergroup attitudes and behaviors are dimension-specific, but that the social dimension appears to inspire more political conflict than the economic dimension. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Strong claims and weak evidence: reassessing the predictive validity of the IAT.

PubMed

Blanton, Hart; Jaccard, James; Klick, Jonathan; Mellers, Barbara; Mitchell, Gregory; Tetlock, Philip E

2009-05-01

The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies-A. R. McConnell and J. M. Leibold and J. C. Ziegert and P. J. Hanges-that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test. In both of these studies, the inclusion of race Implicit Association Test scores in regression models reduced prediction errors by only tiny amounts, and Implicit Association Test scores did not permit prediction of individual-level behaviors. Furthermore, the results were not robust when the impact of rater reliability, statistical specifications, and/or outliers were taken into account, and reanalysis of A. R. McConnell & J. M. Leibold (2001) revealed a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

2014-12-01

The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

2017-10-01

Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, P<0.01), but different SEE of measured 1RM (2.88 kg or 5.4% and 2.90 kg or 5.5%). All 1RM predictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

Comparison of liver fibrosis blood tests developed for HCV with new specific tests in HIV/HCV co-infection.

PubMed

Calès, Paul; Halfon, Philippe; Batisse, Dominique; Carrat, Fabrice; Perré, Philippe; Penaranda, Guillaume; Guyader, Dominique; d'Alteroche, Louis; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Michelet, Christian; Veillon, Pascal; Lambert, Jérôme; Weiss, Laurence; Salmon, Dominique; Cacoub, Patrice

2010-08-01

We compared 5 non-specific and 2 specific blood tests for liver fibrosis in HCV/HIV co-infection. Four hundred and sixty-seven patients were included into derivation (n=183) or validation (n=284) populations. Within these populations, the diagnostic target, significant fibrosis (Metavir F > or = 2), was found in 66% and 72% of the patients, respectively. Two new fibrosis tests, FibroMeter HICV and HICV test, were constructed in the derivation population. Unadjusted AUROCs in the derivation population were: APRI: 0.716, Fib-4: 0.722, Fibrotest: 0.778, Hepascore: 0.779, FibroMeter: 0.783, HICV test: 0.822, FibroMeter HICV: 0.828. AUROCs adjusted on classification and distribution of fibrosis stages in a reference population showed similar values in both populations. FibroMeter, FibroMeter HICV and HICV test had the highest correct classification rates in F0/1 and F3/4 (which account for high predictive values): 77-79% vs. 70-72% in the other tests (p=0.002). Reliable individual diagnosis based on predictive values > or = 90% distinguished three test categories: poorly reliable: Fib-4 (2.4% of patients), APRI (8.9%); moderately reliable: Fibrotest (25.4%), FibroMeter (26.6%), Hepascore (30.2%); acceptably reliable: HICV test (40.2%), FibroMeter HICV (45.6%) (p<10(-3) between tests). FibroMeter HICV classified all patients into four reliable diagnosis intervals (< or =F1, F1+/-1, > or =F1, > or =F2) with an overall accuracy of 93% vs. 79% (p<10(-3)) for a binary diagnosis of significant fibrosis. Tests designed for HCV infections are less effective in HIV/HCV infections. A specific test, like FibroMeter HICV, was the most interesting test for diagnostic accuracy, correct classification profile, and a reliable diagnosis. With reliable diagnosis intervals, liver biopsy can therefore be avoided in all patients. Copyright 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confirming the cognition of rising scores: Fox and Mitchum (2013) predicts violations of measurement invariance in series completion between age-matched cohorts.

PubMed

Fox, Mark C; Mitchum, Ainsley L

2014-01-01

The trend of rising scores on intelligence tests raises important questions about the comparability of variation within and between time periods. Descriptions of the processes that mediate selection of item responses provide meaningful psychological criteria upon which to base such comparisons. In a recent paper, Fox and Mitchum presented and tested a cognitive theory of rising scores on analogical and inductive reasoning tests that is specific enough to make novel predictions about cohort differences in patterns of item responses for tests such as the Raven's Matrices. In this paper we extend the same proposal in two important ways by (1) testing it against a dataset that enables the effects of cohort to be isolated from those of age, and (2) applying it to two other inductive reasoning tests that exhibit large Flynn effects: Letter Series and Word Series. Following specification and testing of a confirmatory item response model, predicted violations of measurement invariance are observed between two age-matched cohorts that are separated by only 20 years, as members of the later cohort are found to map objects at higher levels of abstraction than members of the earlier cohort who possess the same overall level of ability. Results have implications for the Flynn effect and cognitive aging while underscoring the value of establishing psychological criteria for equating members of distinct groups who achieve the same scores.

A Population-Based Acute Meningitis and Encephalitis Syndromes Surveillance in Guangxi, China, May 2007- June 2012

PubMed Central

Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Wu, Xinghua; Bi, Fuyin; Hadler, Stephen C.; Jiraphongsa, Chuleeporn; Sornsrivichai, Vorasith; Lin, Mei; Quan, Yi

2015-01-01

Objectives Acute meningitis and encephalitis (AME) are common diseases with the main pathogens being viruses and bacteria. As specific treatments are different, it is important to develop clinical prediction rules to distinguish aseptic from bacterial or fungal infection. In this study we evaluated the incidence rates, seasonal variety and the main etiologic agents of AME, and identified factors that could be used to predict the etiologic agents. Methods A population-based AME syndrome surveillance system was set up in Guigang City, Guangxi, involving 12 hospitals serving the study communities. All patients meeting the case definition were investigated. Blood and/or cerebrospinal fluid were tested for bacterial pathogens using culture or RT-PCR and serological tests for viruses using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Laboratory testing variables were grouped using factor analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict the etiology of AME. Results From May 2007 to June 2012, the annual incidence rate of AME syndrome, and disease specifically caused by Japanese encephalitis (JE), other viruses, bacteria and fungi were 12.55, 0.58, 4.57, 0.45 and 0.14 per 100,000 population, respectively. The top three identified viral etiologic agents were enterovirus, mumps virus, and JE virus, and for bacteria/fungi were Streptococcus sp., Cryptococcus neoformans and Staphylococcus sp. The incidence of JE and other viruses affected younger populations and peaked from April to August. Alteration of consciousness and leukocytosis were more likely to be caused by JE, bacteria and fungi whereas CSF inflammation was associated with bacterial/fungal infection. Conclusions With limited predictive validity of symptoms and signs and routine laboratory tests, specific tests for JE virus, mumps virus and enteroviruses are required to evaluate the immunization impact and plan for further intervention. CSF bacterial culture cannot be omitted in guiding clinical decisions regarding patient treatment. PMID:26633824

SU-E-J-92: Validating Dose Uncertainty Estimates Produced by AUTODIRECT, An Automated Program to Evaluate Deformable Image Registration Accuracy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, H; Chen, J; Pouliot, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) is a powerful tool with the potential to deformably map dose from one computed-tomography (CT) image to another. Errors in the DIR, however, will produce errors in the transferred dose distribution. We have proposed a software tool, called AUTODIRECT (automated DIR evaluation of confidence tool), which predicts voxel-specific dose mapping errors on a patient-by-patient basis. This work validates the effectiveness of AUTODIRECT to predict dose mapping errors with virtual and physical phantom datasets. Methods: AUTODIRECT requires 4 inputs: moving and fixed CT images and two noise scans of a water phantom (for noise characterization). Then,more » AUTODIRECT uses algorithms to generate test deformations and applies them to the moving and fixed images (along with processing) to digitally create sets of test images, with known ground-truth deformations that are similar to the actual one. The clinical DIR algorithm is then applied to these test image sets (currently 4) . From these tests, AUTODIRECT generates spatial and dose uncertainty estimates for each image voxel based on a Student’s t distribution. This work compares these uncertainty estimates to the actual errors made by the Velocity Deformable Multi Pass algorithm on 11 virtual and 1 physical phantom datasets. Results: For 11 of the 12 tests, the predicted dose error distributions from AUTODIRECT are well matched to the actual error distributions within 1–6% for 10 virtual phantoms, and 9% for the physical phantom. For one of the cases though, the predictions underestimated the errors in the tail of the distribution. Conclusion: Overall, the AUTODIRECT algorithm performed well on the 12 phantom cases for Velocity and was shown to generate accurate estimates of dose warping uncertainty. AUTODIRECT is able to automatically generate patient-, organ- , and voxel-specific DIR uncertainty estimates. This ability would be useful for patient-specific DIR quality assurance.« less

Apollo 14 mission report. Supplement 5: Descent propulsion system final flight evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avvenire, A. T.; Wood, S. C.

1972-01-01

The performance of the LM-8 descent propulsion system during the Apollo 14 mission was evaluated and found to be satisfactory. The average engine effective specific impulse was 0.1 second higher than predicted, but well within the predicted l sigma uncertainty. The engine performance corrected to standard inlet conditions for the FTP portion of the burn at 43 seconds after ignition was as follows: thrust, 9802, lbf; specific impulse, 304.1 sec; and propellant mixture ratio, 1603. These values are + or - 0.8, -0.06, and + or - 0.3 percent different respectively, from the values reported from engine acceptance tests and were within specification limits.

Doing the counter-regulation shuffle: The importance of flexibility and hunger for predicting food consumption following a preload.

PubMed

Broadbent, Jaclyn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Dennerstein, Michelle; Greenwood, Jesse; Hancock, Naomi; Thavapalan, Nithyyaa; White, Melissa

This study utilised the preload paradigm to evaluate whether trait-like dieting attitudes and behaviours (dietary restraint and flexibility in dieting rules) and context-specific factors (negative mood and hunger) predict food consumption among male and female participants. Following a high calorie preload, 79 participants aged 18-40 completed a deceptive taste test in which they were encouraged to eat as much of the taste test foods as desired, and this ad libitum intake was measured. Although each predictor (except negative mood) predicted consumption when tested individually, regression analyses revealed that dieting flexibility and current hunger were the strongest unique predictors of intake. Mood failed to directly predict food consumption, nor did it moderate the relationship between restraint and food intake. Collectively, findings suggest that emphasis on dietary restraint in preload studies may be misplaced, as other proximal and stable factors may better predict food consumption. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Visual Impairment among 4- to 6-years-old Children in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand.

PubMed

Wongwai, Phanthipha; Anupongongarch, Pacharapan; Suwannaraj, Sirinya; Asawaphureekorn, Somkiat

2016-08-01

To evaluate the prevalence of visual impairment of children aged four to six years in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand. The visual acuity test was performed on 1,286 children in kindergarten schools located in Khon Kaen Municipality. The first test of visual acuity was done by trained teachers and the second test by the pediatric ophthalmologist. The prevalence of visual impairment of both tests was recorded including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and predictive value of the test by teachers. The causes of visual impairment were also recorded. There were 39 children with visual impairment from the test by the teacher and 12 children from the test by the ophthalmologist. Myopia is the single cause of visual impairment. Mean spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (SD = 0.53). Median spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (minimum = 0.5, maximum =4). The detection of visual impairment by trained teachers had a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.76-1.00), specificity of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99), likelihood ratio for a positive test 44.58 (95% CI 30.32-65.54), likelihood ratio for a negative test 0.04 (95% CI 0.003-0.60), positive predictive value of 0.31 (95% CI 0.19-0.47), and negative predictive value of 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.00). The prevalence of visual impairment among children aged four to six year old is 0.9%. Trained teachers can be examiners for screening purpose.

Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

PubMed

Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

2017-05-31

Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

Application of Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell Test to Detect Gender-Specific Effect of Chemicals: A Supplementary Tool for Embryotoxicity Prediction.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei; Zhou, Ren; Liang, Fan; Wei, Hongying; Feng, Yan; Wang, Yan

2016-09-19

Gender effect is an inherent property of chemicals, characterized by variations caused by the chemical-biology interaction. It has widely existed, but the shortage of an appropriate model restricts the study on gender-specific effect. The embryonic stem cell test (EST) has been utilized as an alternative test for developmental toxicity. Despite its numerous improvements, mouse embryonic stem cells with an XX karyotype have not been used in the EST, which restricts the ability of the EST to identify gender-specific effects during high-throughput-screening (HTS) of chemicals to date. To address this, the embryonic stem cell (ESC) SP3 line with an XX karyotype was used to establish a "female" model as a complement to EST. Here, we proposed a "double-objects in unison" (DOU)-EST, which consisted of male ESC and female ESC; a seven-day EST protocol was utilized, and the gender-specific effect of chemicals was determined and discriminated; the replacement of myosin heavy chain (MHC) with myosin light chain (MLC) provided a suitable molecular biomarker in the DOU-EST. New linear discriminant functions were given in the purpose of distinguishing chemicals into three classes, namely, no gender-specific effect, male-susceptive, and female-susceptive. For 15 chemicals in the training set, the concordances of prediction result as no gender effect, male susceptive, and female susceptive were 86.67%, 86.67%, and 93.33%, respectively, the sensitivities were 66.67%, 83.33%, and 83.33%, respectively, and the specificities were 91.67%, 88.89%, and 100%, respectively; the total accuracy of DOU-EST was 86.67%. For three chemicals in the test set, one was incorrectively predicted. The possible reason for misclassification may due to the absence of hormone environment in vitro. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) indicated a mean error rate of 18.34%. Taken together, these data suggested a good performance of the proposed DOU-EST. Emerging chemicals with undiscovered gender-specific effects are anticipated to be screened with the DOU-EST.

Predicting Homework Effort: Support for a Domain-Specific, Multilevel Homework Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Ulrich; Ludtke, Oliver; Schnyder, Inge; Niggli, Alois

2006-01-01

According to the domain-specific, multilevel homework model proposed in the present study, students' homework effort is influenced by expectancy and value beliefs, homework characteristics, parental homework behavior, and conscientiousness. The authors used structural equation modeling and hierarchical linear modeling analyses to test the model in…

Rotator cuff crepitus: could Codman really feel a cuff tear?

PubMed

Ponce, Brent A; Kundukulam, Joseph A; Sheppard, Evan D; Determann, Jason R; McGwin, Gerald; Narducci, Carl A; Crowther, Marshall J

2014-07-01

The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of palpating crepitus to diagnose rotator cuff tears. Seventy consecutive consenting patients who presented with shoulder pain and no previous imaging or surgery on the affected shoulder were prospectively enrolled during a 10-month period. A standardized patient history and examination, including the crepitus test, were recorded in addition to obtaining standard radiographs. Additional imaging after initial evaluation was performed with magnetic resonance imaging and interpreted by a musculoskeletal radiologist blinded to the examination findings. Statistical analysis was used to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the crepitus test in the clinical diagnosis of a rotator cuff tear. Sixty-three patients had histories, examinations, and imaging studies available for analysis. The crepitus test had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 80%, PPV of 91%, and NPV of 43% for all types of rotator cuff tears. The sensitivity and specificity for full-thickness or high-grade partial tears was 82% and 73%, respectively; the PPV and NPV were 77% and 79%. Increasing age improved accuracy as the presence of crepitus in patients older than 55 years had a sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 100%, PPV of 100%, and NPV of 38%. The crepitus test has a favorable sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV to assess the integrity of the rotator cuff and may be a useful examination in the clinical diagnosis of a rotator cuff tear. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Pandemic preparedness in Hawaii: a multicenter verification of real-time RT-PCR for the direct detection of influenza virus types A and B.

PubMed

Whelen, A Christian; Bankowski, Matthew J; Furuya, Glenn; Honda, Stacey; Ueki, Robert; Chan, Amelia; Higa, Karen; Kumashiro, Diane; Moore, Nathaniel; Lee, Roland; Koyamatsu, Terrie; Effler, Paul V

2010-01-01

We integrated multicenter, real-time (RTi) reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) screening into a statewide laboratory algorithm for influenza surveillance and response. Each of three sites developed its own testing strategy and was challenged with one randomized and blinded panel of 50 specimens previously tested for respiratory viruses. Following testing, each participating laboratory reported its results to the Hawaii State Department of Health, State Laboratories Division for evaluation and possible discrepant analysis. Two of three laboratories reported a 100% sensitivity and specificity, resulting in a 100% positive predictive value and a 100% negative predictive value (NPV) for influenza type A. The third laboratory showed a 71% sensitivity for influenza type A (83% NPV) with 100% specificity. All three laboratories were 100% sensitive and specific for the detection of influenza type B. Discrepant analysis indicated that the lack of sensitivity experienced by the third laboratory may have been due to the analyte-specific reagent probe used by that laboratory. Use of a newer version of the product with a secondary panel of 20 specimens resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 100%. All three laboratories successfully verified their ability to conduct clinical testing for influenza using diverse nucleic acid extraction and RTi RT-PCR platforms. Successful completion of the verification by all collaborating laboratories paved the way for the integration of those facilities into a statewide laboratory algorithm for influenza surveillance and response.

Whole blood FPR1 mRNA expression predicts both non‐small cell and small cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Vachani, Anil; Pass, Harvey I.; Rom, William N.; Ryden, Kirk; Weiss, Glen J.; Hogarth, D. K.; Runger, George; Richards, Donald; Shelton, Troy; Mallery, David W.

2018-01-01

While long‐term survival rates for early‐stage lung cancer are high, most cases are diagnosed in later stages that can negatively impact survival rates. We aim to design a simple, single biomarker blood test for early‐stage lung cancer that is robust to preclinical variables and can be readily implemented in the clinic. Whole blood was collected in PAXgene tubes from a training set of 29 patients, and a validation set of 260 patients, of which samples from 58 patients were prospectively collected in a clinical trial specifically for our study. After RNA was extracted, the expressions of FPR1 and a reference gene were quantified by an automated one‐step Taqman RT‐PCR assay. Elevated levels of FPR1 mRNA in whole blood predicted lung cancer status with a sensitivity of 55% and a specificity of 87% on all validation specimens. The prospectively collected specimens had a significantly higher 68% sensitivity and 89% specificity. Results from patients with benign nodules were similar to healthy volunteers. No meaningful correlation was present between our test results and any clinical characteristic other than lung cancer diagnosis. FPR1 mRNA levels in whole blood can predict the presence of lung cancer. Using this as a reflex test for positive lung cancer screening computed tomography scans has the potential to increase the positive predictive value. This marker can be easily measured in an automated process utilizing off‐the‐shelf equipment and reagents. Further work is justified to explain the source of this biomarker. PMID:29313979

The protection motivation theory within the stages of the transtheoretical model - stage-specific interplay of variables and prediction of exercise stage transitions.

PubMed

Lippke, Sonia; Plotnikoff, Ronald C

2009-05-01

Two different theories of health behaviour have been chosen with the aim of theory integration: a continuous theory (protection motivation theory, PMT) and a stage model (transtheoretical model, TTM). This is the first study to test whether the stages of the TTM moderate the interrelation of PMT-variables and the mediation of motivation, as well as PMT-variables' interactions in predicting stage transitions. Hypotheses were tested regarding (1) mean patterns, stage pair-comparisons and nonlinear trends using ANOVAs; (2) prediction-patterns for the different stage groups employing multi-group structural equation modelling (MSEM) and nested model analyses; and (3) stage transitions using binary logistic regression analyses. Adults (N=1,602) were assessed over a 6 month period on their physical activity stages, PMT-variables and subsequent behaviour. (1) Particular mean differences and nonlinear trends in all test variables were found. (2) The PMT adequately fitted the five stage groups. The MSEM revealed that covariances within threat appraisal and coping appraisal were invariant and all other constrains were stage-specific, i.e. stage was a moderator. Except for self-efficacy, motivation fully mediated the relationship between the social-cognitive variables and behaviour. (3) Predicting stage transitions with the PMT-variables underscored the importance of self-efficacy. Only when threat appraisal and coping appraisal were high, stage movement was more likely in the preparation stage. Results emphasize stage-specific differences of the PMT mechanisms, and hence, support the stage construct. The findings may guide further theory building and research integrating different theoretical approaches.

A Mobile Health Application to Predict Postpartum Depression Based on Machine Learning.

PubMed

Jiménez-Serrano, Santiago; Tortajada, Salvador; García-Gómez, Juan Miguel

2015-07-01

Postpartum depression (PPD) is a disorder that often goes undiagnosed. The development of a screening program requires considerable and careful effort, where evidence-based decisions have to be taken in order to obtain an effective test with a high level of sensitivity and an acceptable specificity that is quick to perform, easy to interpret, culturally sensitive, and cost-effective. The purpose of this article is twofold: first, to develop classification models for detecting the risk of PPD during the first week after childbirth, thus enabling early intervention; and second, to develop a mobile health (m-health) application (app) for the Android(®) (Google, Mountain View, CA) platform based on the model with best performance for both mothers who have just given birth and clinicians who want to monitor their patient's test. A set of predictive models for estimating the risk of PPD was trained using machine learning techniques and data about postpartum women collected from seven Spanish hospitals. An internal evaluation was carried out using a hold-out strategy. An easy flowchart and architecture for designing the graphical user interface of the m-health app was followed. Naive Bayes showed the best balance between sensitivity and specificity as a predictive model for PPD during the first week after delivery. It was integrated into the clinical decision support system for Android mobile apps. This approach can enable the early prediction and detection of PPD because it fulfills the conditions of an effective screening test with a high level of sensitivity and specificity that is quick to perform, easy to interpret, culturally sensitive, and cost-effective.

FibroMeters: a family of blood tests for liver fibrosis.

PubMed

Calès, P; Boursier, J; Oberti, F; Hubert, I; Gallois, Y; Rousselet, M-C; Dib, N; Moal, V; Macchi, L; Chevailler, A; Michalak, S; Hunault, G; Chaigneau, J; Sawadogo, A; Lunel, F

2008-09-01

FibroMeters are blood tests for liver fibrosis with several specificities: two main diagnostic targets (fibrosis stage and area of fibrosis); adaptation to specific causes; and results confirmed by an expert system. Thus, FibroMeters comprise six different tests: one for staging and one for quantitation of liver fibrosis in each of the three main causes of chronic liver disease-chronic viral hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). FibroMeters display a high overall diagnostic accuracy and are the only tests to correctly classify 100% of HCV patients without fibrosis or with cirrhosis. They have 90% predictive values in a higher proportion of patients than with other usual blood tests. A 90% correct classification is available in 100% of HCV patients with the following reliable diagnostic intervals: F0/1, F1/2, F2+/-1, F3+/-1. In real-life conditions, the reproducibility of FibroMeters is higher than that of liver biopsy or ultrasonographic elastometry. FibroMeters are robust tests with the most stable diagnostic performance across different centers. Optional tests are also available, such as a specific one for cirrhosis, which has a diagnostic accuracy of 93.0% (AUROC: 0.92) and a 100% positive predictive value for diagnosis of HCV cirrhosis. Determination by FibroMeters of the area of fibrosis - the only direct, non-invasive, quantitative measurement of liver fibrosis - are especially useful for following-up cirrhosis as it correlates well with clinical events. FibroMeters are also very accurate in HVB or HIV-HCV co-infected patients. The tests specific for ALD and NAFLD also have a high diagnostic accuracy (AUROCs: 0.96 and 0.94, respectively, for significant fibrosis).

Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS): protocol for a prospective longitudinal test accuracy study to validate new risk scores in women with symptoms of suspected ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Sundar, Sudha; Rick, Caroline; Dowling, Francis; Au, Pui; Rai, Nirmala; Champaneria, Rita; Stobart, Hilary; Neal, Richard; Davenport, Clare; Mallett, Susan; Sutton, Andrew; Kehoe, Sean; Timmerman, Dirk; Bourne, Tom; Van Calster, Ben; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Deeks, Jon

2016-01-01

Introduction Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with non-specific symptoms such as bloating, making accurate diagnosis challenging: only 1 in 3 women with OC presents through primary care referral. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines recommends sequential testing with CA125 and routine ultrasound in primary care. However, these diagnostic tests have limited sensitivity or specificity. Improving accurate triage in women with vague symptoms is likely to improve mortality by streamlining referral and care pathways. The Refining Ovarian Cancer Test Accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS; HTA 13/13/01) project will derive and validate new tests/risk prediction models that estimate the probability of having OC in women with symptoms. This protocol refers to the prospective study only (phase III). Methods and analysis ROCkeTS comprises four parallel phases. The full ROCkeTS protocol can be found at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/ROCKETS. Phase III is a prospective test accuracy study. The study will recruit 2450 patients from 15 UK sites. Recruited patients complete symptom and anxiety questionnaires, donate a serum sample and undergo ultrasound scored as per International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) criteria. Recruitment is at rapid access clinics, emergency departments and elective clinics. Models to be evaluated include those based on ultrasound derived by the IOTA group and novel models derived from analysis of existing data sets. Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, c-statistic (area under receiver operating curve), positive predictive value and negative predictive value of diagnostic tests are evaluated and a calibration plot for models will be presented. ROCkeTS has received ethical approval from the NHS West Midlands REC (14/WM/1241) and is registered on the controlled trials website (ISRCTN17160843) and the National Institute of Health Research Cancer and Reproductive Health portfolios. PMID:27507231

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

Predicting Success in a Graduate Psychology Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kordinak, S. Thomas; Kercher, Melanie; Harman, Marsha J.; Bruce, A. Jerry

2009-01-01

The Graduate Record Examination (GRE) General Tests and GRE advanced Psychology (PSYGRE) Test were correlated with several measures of success in our graduate program at Sam Houston State University including some specific courses. Significant correlations were obtained for several of these measures, but the PSYGRE provided incremental validity…

Composite structural materials. [aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ansell, G. S.; Loewy, R. G.; Wiberley, S. E.

1981-01-01

The development of composite materials for aircraft applications is addressed with specific consideration of physical properties, structural concepts and analysis, manufacturing, reliability, and life prediction. The design and flight testing of composite ultralight gliders is documented. Advances in computer aided design and methods for nondestructive testing are also discussed.

Estimation of Reliability Coefficients Using the Test Information Function and Its Modifications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

1994-01-01

The reliability coefficient is predicted from the test information function (TIF) or two modified TIF formulas and a specific trait distribution. Examples illustrate the variability of the reliability coefficient across different trait distributions, and results are compared with empirical reliability coefficients. (SLD)

High-Level Prediction Signals in a Low-Level Area of the Macaque Face-Processing Hierarchy.

PubMed

Schwiedrzik, Caspar M; Freiwald, Winrich A

2017-09-27

Theories like predictive coding propose that lower-order brain areas compare their inputs to predictions derived from higher-order representations and signal their deviation as a prediction error. Here, we investigate whether the macaque face-processing system, a three-level hierarchy in the ventral stream, employs such a coding strategy. We show that after statistical learning of specific face sequences, the lower-level face area ML computes the deviation of actual from predicted stimuli. But these signals do not reflect the tuning characteristic of ML. Rather, they exhibit identity specificity and view invariance, the tuning properties of higher-level face areas AL and AM. Thus, learning appears to endow lower-level areas with the capability to test predictions at a higher level of abstraction than what is afforded by the feedforward sweep. These results provide evidence for computational architectures like predictive coding and suggest a new quality of functional organization of information-processing hierarchies beyond pure feedforward schemes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of Skeletal Muscle cis-Regulatory Module Predictions Reveals Nucleotide Composition Bias in Functional Enhancers

PubMed Central

Kwon, Andrew T.; Chou, Alice Yi; Arenillas, David J.; Wasserman, Wyeth W.

2011-01-01

We performed a genome-wide scan for muscle-specific cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) using three computational prediction programs. Based on the predictions, 339 candidate CRMs were tested in cell culture with NIH3T3 fibroblasts and C2C12 myoblasts for capacity to direct selective reporter gene expression to differentiated C2C12 myotubes. A subset of 19 CRMs validated as functional in the assay. The rate of predictive success reveals striking limitations of computational regulatory sequence analysis methods for CRM discovery. Motif-based methods performed no better than predictions based only on sequence conservation. Analysis of the properties of the functional sequences relative to inactive sequences identifies nucleotide sequence composition can be an important characteristic to incorporate in future methods for improved predictive specificity. Muscle-related TFBSs predicted within the functional sequences display greater sequence conservation than non-TFBS flanking regions. Comparison with recent MyoD and histone modification ChIP-Seq data supports the validity of the functional regions. PMID:22144875

Development of an evidence-based approach to external quality assurance for breast cancer hormone receptor immunohistochemistry: comparison of reference values.

PubMed

Makretsov, Nikita; Gilks, C Blake; Alaghehbandan, Reza; Garratt, John; Quenneville, Louise; Mercer, Joel; Palavdzic, Dragana; Torlakovic, Emina E

2011-07-01

External quality assurance and proficiency testing programs for breast cancer predictive biomarkers are based largely on traditional ad hoc design; at present there is no universal consensus on definition of a standard reference value for samples used in external quality assurance programs. To explore reference values for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor immunohistochemistry in order to develop an evidence-based analytic platform for external quality assurance. There were 31 participating laboratories, 4 of which were previously designated as "expert" laboratories. Each participant tested a tissue microarray slide with 44 breast carcinomas for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor and submitted it to the Canadian Immunohistochemistry Quality Control Program for analysis. Nuclear staining in 1% or more of the tumor cells was a positive score. Five methods for determining reference values were compared. All reference values showed 100% agreement for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor scores, when indeterminate results were excluded. Individual laboratory performance (agreement rates, test sensitivity, test specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and κ value) was very similar for all reference values. Identification of suboptimal performance by all methods was identical for 30 of 31 laboratories. Estrogen receptor assessment of 1 laboratory was discordant: agreement was less than 90% for 3 of 5 reference values and greater than 90% with the use of 2 other reference values. Various reference values provide equivalent laboratory rating. In addition to descriptive feedback, our approach allows calculation of technical test sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, agreement rates, and κ values to guide corrective actions.

Performance of an HRP-2 Rapid Diagnostic Test in Nigerian Children Less Than 5 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Ajumobi, Olufemi; Sabitu, Kabir; Nguku, Patrick; Kwaga, Jacob; Ntadom, Godwin; Gitta, Sheba; Elizeus, Rutebemberwa; Oyibo, Wellington; Nsubuga, Peter; Maire, Mark; Poggensee, Gabriele

2015-01-01

The diagnostic performance of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP-2)–based malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was evaluated in a mesoendemic area for malaria, Kaduna, Nigeria. We compared RDT results with expert microscopy results of blood samples from 295 febrile children under 5 years. Overall, 11.9% (35/295) tested positive with RDT compared with 10.5% (31/295) by microscopy: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 100%, 98.5%, 88.6%, and 100%, respectively. The RDT sensitivity was not affected by transmission season, parasite density, and age. Specificity and positive PV decreased slightly during the high-transmission season (97.5% and 83.3%). The RDT test positivity rates in the low- and high-transmission seasons were 9.4% and 13.5%, respectively. Overall, the test performance of this RDT was satisfactory. The findings of a low proportion of RDT false positives, no invalid and no false-negative results should validate the performance of RDTs in this context. PMID:25711608

Field evaluation of a malaria rapid diagnostic test (ICT Pf).

PubMed

Moonasar, Devanand; Goga, Ameena E; Kruger, Philip S; La Cock, Christine; Maharaj, Rajendra; Frean, John; Chandramohan, Daniel

2009-11-01

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (MRDTs) are quick and easy to perform and useful for diagnosing malaria in primary health care settings. In South Africa most malaria infections are due to Plasmodium falciparurrm, and HRPII-based MRDTs have been used since 2001. Previous studies in Africa showed variability in sensitivity and specificity of HRPII-based MRDTs; hence, we conducted a field evaluation in Limpopo province to determine the accuracy of the MRDT currently used in public sector clinics and hospitals. A cross-sectional observational study was conducted to determine the sensitivity and specificity of an ICT Pf MRDT. We tested 405 patients with fever with ICT Pf MRDT and compared the results with blood film microscopy (the gold standard). RESULTS. The overall sensitivity of the ICT Pf MRDT was 99.48% (95% confidence interval (CI) 96.17-100%), while specificity was 96.26% (95% CI 94.7-100%). The positive predictive value of the test was 98.48 (99% CI 98.41-100%), and the negative predictive value was 99.52% (95% CI 96.47-100%). The ICT Pf MRDT is an appropriate test to use in the field in South Africa where laboratory facilities are not available. It has a high degree of sensitivity and acceptable level of specificity in accordance with the World Health Organization criteria. However, sensitivity of MRDT at low levels of parasitaemia (<100 parasites/microl of blood) in field conditions must still be established.

Development and validation of a subject-specific finite element model of the functional spinal unit to predict vertebral strength.

PubMed

Lee, Chu-Hee; Landham, Priyan R; Eastell, Richard; Adams, Michael A; Dolan, Patricia; Yang, Lang

2017-09-01

Finite element models of an isolated vertebral body cannot accurately predict compressive strength of the spinal column because, in life, compressive load is variably distributed across the vertebral body and neural arch. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a patient-specific finite element model of a functional spinal unit, and then use the model to predict vertebral strength from medical images. A total of 16 cadaveric functional spinal units were scanned and then tested mechanically in bending and compression to generate a vertebral wedge fracture. Before testing, an image processing and finite element analysis framework (SpineVox-Pro), developed previously in MATLAB using ANSYS APDL, was used to generate a subject-specific finite element model with eight-node hexahedral elements. Transversely isotropic linear-elastic material properties were assigned to vertebrae, and simple homogeneous linear-elastic properties were assigned to the intervertebral disc. Forward bending loading conditions were applied to simulate manual handling. Results showed that vertebral strengths measured by experiment were positively correlated with strengths predicted by the functional spinal unit finite element model with von Mises or Drucker-Prager failure criteria ( R 2  = 0.80-0.87), with areal bone mineral density measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry ( R 2  = 0.54) and with volumetric bone mineral density from quantitative computed tomography ( R 2  = 0.79). Large-displacement non-linear analyses on all specimens did not improve predictions. We conclude that subject-specific finite element models of a functional spinal unit have potential to estimate the vertebral strength better than bone mineral density alone.

Predicting Persistent Back Symptoms by Psychosocial Risk Factors: Validity Criteria for the ÖMPSQ and the HKF-R 10 in Germany.

PubMed

Riewe, E; Neubauer, E; Pfeifer, A C; Schiltenwolf, M

2016-01-01

10% of all individuals in Germany develop persistent symptoms due to nonspecific back pain (NSBP) causing up to 90% of direct and indirect expenses for health care systems. Evidence indicates a strong relationship between chronic nonspecific back pain and psychosocial risk factors. The Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ) and the German Heidelberger Kurzfragebogen Rückenschmerz (HKF-R 10) are deemed valid in prediction of persistent pain, functional loss or amount of sick leave. This study provides and discusses validity criteria for these questionnaires using ROC-curve analyses. Quality measurements included sensitivity and specificity, likelihood-ratio related test-efficiencies and clinical utility in regard to predictive values. 265 patients recruited from primary and secondary care units completed both questionnaires during the same timeframe. From the total, 133 patients returned a 6-month follow-up questionnaire to assess the validity criteria for outcomes of pain, function and sick leave. Based on heterogeneous cut-offs for the ÖMPSQ, sensitivity and specificity were moderate for outcome of pain (72%/75%). Very high sensitivity was observed for function (97%/57%) and high specificity for sick leave (63%/85%). The latter also applied to the HKF-R 10 (pain 50%/84%). Proportions between sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced except for the ÖMPSQ outcome of pain. Likelihood-ratios and positive predictive values ranged from low to moderate. Although the ÖMPSQ may be considered useful in identification of long-term functional loss or pain, over- and underestimation of patients at risk of chronic noncspecific back pain led to limited test-efficiencies and clinical utility for both questionnaires. Further studies are required to quantify the predictive validity of both questionnaires in Germany.

Prediction of early and late preeclampsia by flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery*

PubMed Central

Brandão, Augusto Henriques Fulgêncio; Evangelista, Aline Aarão; Martins, Raphaela Menin Franco; Leite, Henrique Vítor; Cabral, Antônio Carlos Vieira

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the accuracy in the prediction of both early and late preeclampsia by flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery (FMD), a biophysical marker for endothelial dysfunction. Materials and Methods A total of 91 patients, considered at high risk for development of preeclampsia were submitted to brachial artery FMD between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation. Results Nineteen out of the selected patients developed preeclampsia, 8 in its early form and 11 in the late form. With a cut-off value of 6.5%, the FMD sensitivity for early preeclampsia prediction was 75.0%, with specificity of 73.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 32.4% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 91.9%. For the prediction of late preeclampsia, sensitivity = 83.3%, specificity = 73.2%, PPV = 34.4% and NPV = 96.2% were observed. And for the prediction of all associated forms of preeclampsia, sensitivity = 84.2%, specificity = 73.6%, PPV = 45.7% and NPV = 94.6% were observed. Conclusion FMD of the brachial artery is a test with good accuracy in the prediction of both early and late preeclampsia, which may represent a positive impact on the follow-up of pregnant women at high risk for developing this syndrome. PMID:25741086

Diagnostic value of fecal tumor M2-pyruvate kinase for CRC screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Rui; Liu, Jianjun; Xue, Huiping; Huang, Gang

2012-10-15

The measurement of fecal tumor M2-pyruvate kinase (PKM2), overexpressed in tumor cells, has been proposed as a novel tool for detecting colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the sensitivity and specificity of this test varied among studies. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of fecal PKM2 for CRC and to evaluate its utility in the CRC screening. It was compared to guaiac fecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or immunological fecal occult blood test (iFOBT). Through comprehensive literature search, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included. Summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity were calculated by using the bivariate random effect model. The hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve was also undertaken. The overall sensitivity and specificity of fecal PKM2 for detecting CRC were 79% (95% CI = 75-83%) and 81% (95% CI = 73-87%), respectively. The summary positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 74% (95% CI = 56-87%) and 86% (95% CI = 79-91%), respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 16 (95% CI = 10-26). In head-to-head comparison, the diagnostic odds ratio of PKM2 and gFOBT for CRC were 10.167 (95% CI = 5.992-17.250) and 6.557 (95% CI = 3.467-12.403), respectively. The diagnostic odds ratio of PKM2 and iFOBT for CRC were 9.542 (95% CI = 5.893-15.452) and 67.248 (95% CI = 16.194-279.26), respectively. The fecal PKM2 test was a diagnostic tool with moderate sensitivity and specificity for detecting CRC. Its diagnostic efficiency was similar to that of gFOBT. Because of its relatively low specificity and positive predict value, fecal PKM2 was not recommended used alone as a screening tool for CRC. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

The Danish test battery for auditory processing disorder evaluated with patient and control data.

PubMed

Raben Pedersen, Ellen

2018-06-10

This study evaluates the Danish test battery for auditory processing disorder (APD). The battery consists of four behavioural tests, two speech and two non-speech stimuli tests. The evaluation includes determination of: (1) new cut-off values (pass-fail criteria), (2) the sensitivity and the specificity of the entire test battery and (3) the failure rate of different test combinations. For each test in the battery, cut-off values were determined using the weighted Youden index. Applying the newly derived cut-off values, the distribution of failing specific test combinations was determined. A group of 112 children diagnosed with APD (57 boys, 55 girls, aged 6-16 years) and a control group containing 158 children without auditory problems (75 boys, 83 girls, aged 6-16 years). Cut-off values for different weights of the sensitivity and the specificity have been determined. Using the criterion that at least two tests have to be failed for APD to be suspected, the sensitivity and the specificity of the entire test battery were 95.3% and 91.6%, respectively. Some test combinations were found to have higher failure rates than others. Due to the high sensitivity and specificity the test battery has good predictive value in APD assessment.

Mutations altering the cleavage specificity of a homing endonuclease

PubMed Central

Seligman, Lenny M.; Chisholm, Karen M.; Chevalier, Brett S.; Chadsey, Meggen S.; Edwards, Samuel T.; Savage, Jeremiah H.; Veillet, Adeline L.

2002-01-01

The homing endonuclease I-CreI recognizes and cleaves a particular 22 bp DNA sequence. The crystal structure of I-CreI bound to homing site DNA has previously been determined, leading to a number of predictions about specific protein–DNA contacts. We test these predictions by analyzing a set of endonuclease mutants and a complementary set of homing site mutants. We find evidence that all structurally predicted I-CreI/DNA contacts contribute to DNA recognition and show that these contacts differ greatly in terms of their relative importance. We also describe the isolation of a collection of altered specificity I-CreI derivatives. The in vitro DNA-binding and cleavage properties of two such endonucleases demonstrate that our genetic approach is effective in identifying homing endonucleases that recognize and cleave novel target sequences. PMID:12202772

Detection of HPV related oropharyngeal cancer in oral rinse specimens

PubMed Central

Rosenthal, Matthew; Huang, Bin; Katabi, Nora; Migliacci, Jocelyn; Bryant, Robert; Kaplan, Samuel; Blackwell, Timothy; Patel, Snehal; Yang, Liying; Pei, Zhiheng; Tang, Yi-Wei; Ganly, Ian

2017-01-01

Background The majority of patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) are due to HPV infection. At present, there are no reliable tests for screening HPV in patients with OPSCC. The objective of this study was to assess the Cobas® HPV Test on oral rinse specimens as an early, non-invasive tool for HPV-related OPSCC. Methods Oral rinse specimens were collected from 187 patients (45 with OPSCC, 61 with oral cavity SCC (OCSCC) and 81 control patients who had benign or malignant thyroid nodules) treated at MSKCC. The Cobas® HPV Test was used to detect 14 high-risk HPV types in these samples. Performance of the HPV Test was correlated with p16 tumor immunohistochemistry as gold standard. Results 91.1% of the oropharynx cancer patients had p16 positive tumors compared to 3.3% of oral cavity cancer. Of the 81 control patients, 79 (97.5%) had no HPV in their oral rinse giving a specificity of the HPV test of 98%. For the combined oral cavity oropharynx cancer cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the HPV Test were 79.1%, 90.5%, 85.0% and 86.4% respectively when p16 immunohistochemistry was used as the reference. Conclusion The Cobas® HPV Test on oral rinse is a highly specific and potentially sensitive test for oropharyngeal cancer and may be a potentially useful screening test for early oropharyngeal cancer. Impact We describe an oral rinse test for the detection of HPV related oropharyngeal cancer. PMID:29312616

Cassini RTG acceptance test results and RTG performance on Galileo and Ulysses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, C.E.; Klee, P.M.

Flight acceptance testing has been completed for the RTGs to be used on the Cassini spacecraft which is scheduled for an October 6, 1997 launch to Saturn. The acceptance test program includes vibration tests, magnetic field measurements, mass properties (weight and c.g.) and thermal vacuum test. This paper presents the thermal vacuum test results. Three RTGs are to be used, F-2, F-6, and F-7. F-5 is the backup RTG, as it was for the Galileo and Ulysses missions launched in 1989 and 1990, respectively. RTG performance measured during the thermal vacuum tests carried out at the Mound Laboratory facility metmore » all specification requirements. Beginning of mission (BOM) and end of mission (EOM) power predictions have been made based on these tests results. BOM power is predicted to be 888 watts compared to the minimum requirement of 826 watts. Degradation models predict the EOM power after 16 years is to be 640 watts compared to a minimum requirement of 596 watts. Results of small scale module tests are also shown. The modules contain couples from the qualification and flight production runs. The tests have exceeded 28,000 hours (3.2 years) and are continuing to provide increased confidence in the predicted long term performance of the Cassini RTGs. All test results indicate that the power requirements of the Cassini spacecraft will be met. BOM and EOM power margins of over 5% are predicted. Power output from telemetry for the two Galileo RTGs are shown from the 1989 launch to the recent Jupiter encounter. Comparisons of predicted, measured and required performance are shown. Telemetry data are also shown for the RTG on the Ulysses spacecraft which completed its planned mission in 1995 and is now in the extended mission.« less

Cassini RTG acceptance test results and RTG performance on Galileo and Ulysses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, C.E.; Klee, P.M.

Flight acceptance testing has been completed for the RTGs to be used on the Cassini spacecraft which is scheduled for an October 6, 1997 launch to Saturn. The acceptance test program includes vibration tests, magnetic field measurements, properties (weight and c.g.) and thermal vacuum test. This paper presents The thermal vacuum test results. Three RTGs are to be used, F-2, F-6, and F-7. F-5 is tile back-up RTG, as it was for the Galileo and Ulysses missions launched in 1989 and 1990, respectively. RTG performance measured during the thermal vacuum tests carried out at die Mound Laboratory facility met allmore » specification requirements. Beginning of mission (BOM) and end of mission (EOM) power predictions have been made based on than tests results. BOM power is predicted to be 888 watts compared to the minimum requirement of 826 watts. Degradation models predict the EOM power after 16 years is to be 640 watts compared to a minimum requirement of 596 watts. Results of small scale module tests are also showing. The modules contain couples from the qualification and flight production runs. The tests have exceeded 28,000 hours (3.2 years) and are continuing to provide increased confidence in the predicted long term performance of the Cassini RTGs. All test results indicate that the power requirements of the Cassini spacecraft will be met. BOM and EOM power margins of over five percent are predicted. Power output from telemetry for the two Galileo RTGs are shown from the 1989 launch to the recent Jupiter encounter. Comparisons of predicted, measured and required performance are shown. Telemetry data are also shown for the RTG on the Ulysses spacecraft which completed its planned mission in 1995 and is now in the extended mission.« less

Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2002-01-01

Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

Cassini RTG Acceptance Test Results and RTG Performance on Galileo and Ulysses

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Kelly, C. E.; Klee, P. M.

1997-06-01

Flight acceptance testing has been completed for the RTGs to be used on the Cassini spacecraft which is scheduled for an October 6, 1997 launch to Saturn. The acceptance test program includes vibration tests, magnetic field measurements, properties (weight and c.g.) and thermal vacuum test. This paper presents The thermal vacuum test results. Three RTGs are to be used, F 2, F 6, and F 7. F 5 is tile back up RTG, as it was for the Galileo and Ulysses missions launched in 1989 and 1990, respectively. RTG performance measured during the thermal vacuum tests carried out at die Mound Laboratory facility met all specification requirements. Beginning of mission (BOM) and end of mission (EOM) power predictions have been made based on than tests results. BOM power is predicted to be 888 watts compared to the minimum requirement of 826 watts. Degradation models predict the EOM power after 16 years is to be 640 watts compared to a minimum requirement of 596 watts. Results of small scale module tests are also showing. The modules contain couples from the qualification and flight production runs. The tests have exceeded 28,000 hours (3.2 years) and are continuing to provide increased confidence in the predicted long term performance of the Cassini RTGs. All test results indicate that the power requirements of the Cassini spacecraft will be met. BOM and EOM power margins of over five percent are predicted. Power output from telemetry for the two Galileo RTGs are shown from the 1989 launch to the recent Jupiter encounter. Comparisons of predicted, measured and required performance are shown. Telemetry data are also shown for the RTG on the Ulysses spacecraft which completed its planned mission in 1995 and is now in the extended mission.

Ventral Striatum Functional Connectivity as a Predictor of Adolescent Depressive Disorder in a Longitudinal Community-Based Sample.

PubMed

Pan, Pedro Mario; Sato, João R; Salum, Giovanni A; Rohde, Luis A; Gadelha, Ary; Zugman, Andre; Mari, Jair; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Pine, Daniel S; Leibenluft, Ellen; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Stringaris, Argyris

2017-11-01

Previous studies have implicated aberrant reward processing in the pathogenesis of adolescent depression. However, no study has used functional connectivity within a distributed reward network, assessed using resting-state functional MRI (fMRI), to predict the onset of depression in adolescents. This study used reward network-based functional connectivity at baseline to predict depressive disorder at follow-up in a community sample of adolescents. A total of 637 children 6-12 years old underwent resting-state fMRI. Discovery and replication analyses tested intrinsic functional connectivity (iFC) among nodes of a putative reward network. Logistic regression tested whether striatal node strength, a measure of reward-related iFC, predicted onset of a depressive disorder at 3-year follow-up. Further analyses investigated the specificity of this prediction. Increased left ventral striatum node strength predicted increased risk for future depressive disorder (odds ratio=1.54, 95% CI=1.09-2.18), even after excluding participants who had depressive disorders at baseline (odds ratio=1.52, 95% CI=1.05-2.20). Among 11 reward-network nodes, only the left ventral striatum significantly predicted depression. Striatal node strength did not predict other common adolescent psychopathology, such as anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and substance use. Aberrant ventral striatum functional connectivity specifically predicts future risk for depressive disorder. This finding further emphasizes the need to understand how brain reward networks contribute to youth depression.

Testing the generality of above-ground biomass allometry across plant functional types at the continent scale.

PubMed

Paul, Keryn I; Roxburgh, Stephen H; Chave, Jerome; England, Jacqueline R; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Specht, Alison; Lewis, Tom; Bennett, Lauren T; Baker, Thomas G; Adams, Mark A; Huxtable, Dan; Montagu, Kelvin D; Falster, Daniel S; Feller, Mike; Sochacki, Stan; Ritson, Peter; Bastin, Gary; Bartle, John; Wildy, Dan; Hobbs, Trevor; Larmour, John; Waterworth, Rob; Stewart, Hugh T L; Jonson, Justin; Forrester, David I; Applegate, Grahame; Mendham, Daniel; Bradford, Matt; O'Grady, Anthony; Green, Daryl; Sudmeyer, Rob; Rance, Stan J; Turner, John; Barton, Craig; Wenk, Elizabeth H; Grove, Tim; Attiwill, Peter M; Pinkard, Elizabeth; Butler, Don; Brooksbank, Kim; Spencer, Beren; Snowdon, Peter; O'Brien, Nick; Battaglia, Michael; Cameron, David M; Hamilton, Steve; McAuthur, Geoff; Sinclair, Jenny

2016-06-01

Accurate ground-based estimation of the carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems is critical to quantifying the global carbon budget. Allometric models provide cost-effective methods for biomass prediction. But do such models vary with ecoregion or plant functional type? We compiled 15 054 measurements of individual tree or shrub biomass from across Australia to examine the generality of allometric models for above-ground biomass prediction. This provided a robust case study because Australia includes ecoregions ranging from arid shrublands to tropical rainforests, and has a rich history of biomass research, particularly in planted forests. Regardless of ecoregion, for five broad categories of plant functional type (shrubs; multistemmed trees; trees of the genus Eucalyptus and closely related genera; other trees of high wood density; and other trees of low wood density), relationships between biomass and stem diameter were generic. Simple power-law models explained 84-95% of the variation in biomass, with little improvement in model performance when other plant variables (height, bole wood density), or site characteristics (climate, age, management) were included. Predictions of stand-based biomass from allometric models of varying levels of generalization (species-specific, plant functional type) were validated using whole-plot harvest data from 17 contrasting stands (range: 9-356 Mg ha(-1) ). Losses in efficiency of prediction were <1% if generalized models were used in place of species-specific models. Furthermore, application of generalized multispecies models did not introduce significant bias in biomass prediction in 92% of the 53 species tested. Further, overall efficiency of stand-level biomass prediction was 99%, with a mean absolute prediction error of only 13%. Hence, for cost-effective prediction of biomass across a wide range of stands, we recommend use of generic allometric models based on plant functional types. Development of new species-specific models is only warranted when gains in accuracy of stand-based predictions are relatively high (e.g. high-value monocultures). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accuracy of Prediction Instruments for Diagnosing Large Vessel Occlusion in Individuals With Suspected Stroke: A Systematic Review for the 2018 Guidelines for the Early Management of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Smith, Eric E; Kent, David M; Bulsara, Ketan R; Leung, Lester Y; Lichtman, Judith H; Reeves, Mathew J; Towfighi, Amytis; Whiteley, William N; Zahuranec, Darin B

2018-03-01

Endovascular thrombectomy is a highly efficacious treatment for large vessel occlusion (LVO). LVO prediction instruments, based on stroke signs and symptoms, have been proposed to identify stroke patients with LVO for rapid transport to endovascular thrombectomy-capable hospitals. This evidence review committee was commissioned by the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association to systematically review evidence for the accuracy of LVO prediction instruments. Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched on October 27, 2016. Study quality was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy-2 tool. Thirty-six relevant studies were identified. Most studies (21 of 36) recruited patients with ischemic stroke, with few studies in the prehospital setting (4 of 36) and in populations that included hemorrhagic stroke or stroke mimics (12 of 36). The most frequently studied prediction instrument was the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Most studies had either some risk of bias or unclear risk of bias. Reported discrimination of LVO mostly ranged from 0.70 to 0.85, as measured by the C statistic. In meta-analysis, sensitivity was as high as 87% and specificity was as high as 90%, but no threshold on any instruments predicted LVO with both high sensitivity and specificity. With a positive LVO prediction test, the probability of LVO could be 50% to 60% (depending on the LVO prevalence in the population), but the probability of LVO with a negative test could still be ≥10%. No scale predicted LVO with both high sensitivity and high specificity. Systems that use LVO prediction instruments for triage will miss some patients with LVO and milder stroke. More prospective studies are needed to assess the accuracy of LVO prediction instruments in the prehospital setting in all patients with suspected stroke, including patients with hemorrhagic stroke and stroke mimics. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Second trimester maternal urine for the diagnosis of trisomy 21 and prediction of poor pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, Sílvia O; Barros, António S; Goodfellow, Brian J; Duarte, Iola F; Galhano, Eulália; Pita, Cristina; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Carreira, Isabel M; Gil, Ana M

2013-06-07

Given the recognized lack of prenatal clinical methods for the early diagnosis of preterm delivery, intrauterine growth restriction, preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus, and the continuing need for optimized diagnosis methods for specific chromosomal disorders (e.g., trisomy 21) and fetal malformations, this work sought specific metabolic signatures of these conditions in second trimester maternal urine, using (1)H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ((1)H NMR) metabolomics. Several variable importance to the projection (VIP)- and b-coefficient-based variable selection methods were tested, both individually and through their intersection, and the resulting data sets were analyzed by partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and submitted to Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) and permutation tests to evaluate model predictive power. The NMR data subsets produced significantly improved PLS-DA models for all conditions except for pre-premature rupture of membranes. Specific urinary metabolic signatures were unveiled for central nervous system malformations, trisomy 21, preterm delivery, gestational diabetes, intrauterine growth restriction and preeclampsia, and biochemical interpretations were proposed. This work demonstrated, for the first time, the value of maternal urine profiling as a complementary means of prenatal diagnostics and early prediction of several poor pregnancy outcomes.

Investigating the Interaction Between Sleep Symptoms of Arousal and Acquired Capability in Predicting Suicidality.

PubMed

Hochard, Kevin D; Heym, Nadja; Townsend, Ellen

2017-06-01

Heightened arousal significantly interacts with acquired capability to predict suicidality. We explore this interaction with insomnia and nightmares independently of waking state arousal symptoms, and test predictions of the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide (IPTS) and Escape Theory in relation to these sleep arousal symptoms. Findings from our e-survey (n = 540) supported the IPTS over models of Suicide as Escape. Sleep-specific measurements of arousal (insomnia and nightmares) showed no main effect, yet interacted with acquired capability to predict increased suicidality. The explained variance in suicidality by the interaction (1%-2%) using sleep-specific measures was comparable to variance explained by interactions previously reported in the literature using measurements composed of a mix of waking and sleep state arousal symptoms. Similarly, when entrapment (inability to escape) was included in models, main effects of sleep symptoms arousal were not detected yet interacted with entrapment to predict suicidality. We discuss findings in relation to treatment options suggesting that sleep-specific interventions be considered for the long-term management of at-risk individuals. © 2016 The American Association of Suicidology.

The value of the UK Clinical Aptitude Test in predicting pre-clinical performance: a prospective cohort study at Nottingham Medical School.

PubMed

Yates, Janet; James, David

2010-07-28

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) was introduced in 2006 as an additional tool for the selection of medical students. It tests mental ability in four distinct domains (Quantitative Reasoning, Verbal Reasoning, Abstract Reasoning, and Decision Analysis), and the results are available to students and admissions panels in advance of the selection process. As yet the predictive validity of the test against course performance is largely unknown.The study objective was to determine whether UKCAT scores predict performance during the first two years of the 5-year undergraduate medical course at Nottingham. We studied a single cohort of students, who entered Nottingham Medical School in October 2007 and had taken the UKCAT. We used linear regression analysis to identify independent predictors of marks for different parts of the 2-year preclinical course. Data were available for 204/260 (78%) of the entry cohort. The UKCAT total score had little predictive value. Quantitative Reasoning was a significant independent predictor of course marks in Theme A ('The Cell'), (p = 0.005), and Verbal Reasoning predicted Theme C ('The Community') (p < 0.001), but otherwise the effects were slight or non-existent. This limited study from a single entry cohort at one medical school suggests that the predictive value of the UKCAT, particularly the total score, is low. Section scores may predict success in specific types of course assessment.The ultimate test of validity will not be available for some years, when current cohorts of students graduate. However, if this test of mental ability does not predict preclinical performance, it is arguably less likely to predict the outcome in the clinical years. Further research from medical schools with different types of curriculum and assessment is needed, with longitudinal studies throughout the course.

Summary of Data from the First AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, David W.; Zickuhr, Tom; Vassberg, John; Agrawal, Shreekant; Wahls, Richard A.; Pirzadeh, Shahyar; Hemsch, Michael J.

2002-01-01

The results from the first AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop are summarized. The workshop was designed specifically to assess the state-of-the-art of computational fluid dynamics methods for force and moment prediction. An impartial forum was provided to evaluate the effectiveness of existing computer codes and modeling techniques, and to identify areas needing additional research and development. The subject of the study was the DLR-F4 wing-body configuration, which is representative of transport aircraft designed for transonic flight. Specific test cases were required so that valid comparisons could be made. Optional test cases included constant-C(sub L) drag-rise predictions typically used in airplane design by industry. Results are compared to experimental data from three wind tunnel tests. A total of 18 international participants using 14 different codes submitted data to the workshop. No particular grid type or turbulence model was more accurate, when compared to each other, or to wind tunnel data. Most of the results overpredicted C(sub Lo) and C(sub Do), but induced drag (dC(sub D)/dC(sub L)(exp 2)) agreed fairly well. Drag rise at high Mach number was underpredicted, however, especially at high C(sub L). On average, the drag data were fairly accurate, but the scatter was greater than desired. The results show that well-validated Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD methods are sufficiently accurate to make design decisions based on predicted drag.

Evaluating Prospective Teachers: Testing the Predictive Validity of the EdTPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Cowan, James; Theobald, Roddy

2017-01-01

We use longitudinal data from Washington State to provide estimates of the extent to which performance on the edTPA, a performance-based, subject-specific assessment of teacher candidates, is predictive of the likelihood of employment in the teacher workforce and value-added measures of teacher effectiveness. While edTPA scores are highly…

Do Statistical Segmentation Abilities Predict Lexical-Phonological and Lexical-Semantic Abilities in Children with and without SLI?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mainela-Arnold, Elina; Evans, Julia L.

2014-01-01

This study tested the predictions of the procedural deficit hypothesis by investigating the relationship between sequential statistical learning and two aspects of lexical ability, lexical-phonological and lexical-semantic, in children with and without specific language impairment (SLI). Participants included forty children (ages 8;5-12;3), twenty…

Evaluating Prospective Teachers: Testing the Predictive Validity of the edTPA. Working Paper 157

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Cowan, James; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We use longitudinal data from Washington State to provide estimates of the extent to which performance on the edTPA, a performance-based, subject-specific assessment of teacher candidates, is predictive of the likelihood of employment in the teacher workforce and value-added measures of teacher effectiveness. While edTPA scores are highly…

A spectral clustering search algorithm for predicting shallow landslide size and location

Treesearch

Dino Bellugi; David G. Milledge; William E. Dietrich; Jim A. McKean; J. Taylor Perron; Erik B. Sudderth; Brian Kazian

2015-01-01

The potential hazard and geomorphic significance of shallow landslides depend on their location and size. Commonly applied one-dimensional stability models do not include lateral resistances and cannot predict landslide size. Multi-dimensional models must be applied to specific geometries, which are not known a priori, and testing all possible geometries is...

Generation of Interpersonal Stressful Events: The Role of Poor Social Skills and Early Physical Maturation in Young Adolescents--The TRAILS Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bakker, Martin P.; Ormel, Johan; Lindenberg, Siegwart; Verhulst, Frank C.; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.

2011-01-01

This study developed two specifications of the social skills deficit stress generation hypothesis: the "gender-incongruence" hypothesis to predict peer victimization and the "need for autonomy" hypothesis to predict conflict with authorities. These hypotheses were tested in a prospective large population cohort of 2,064 Dutch…

Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Barall, M.; Andrews, D.J.; Duan, B.; Ma, S.; Dunham, E.M.; Gabriel, A.-A.; Kaneko, Y.; Kase, Y.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Oglesby, D.D.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Hanks, T.C.; Abrahamson, N.

2011-01-01

In situations where seismological data is rare or nonexistent, computer simulations may be used to predict ground motions caused by future earthquakes. This is particularly practical in the case of extreme ground motions, where engineers of special buildings may need to design for an event that has not been historically observed but which may occur in the far-distant future. Once the simulations have been performed, however, they still need to be tested. The SCEC-USGS dynamic rupture code verification exercise provides a testing mechanism for simulations that involve spontaneous earthquake rupture. We have performed this examination for the specific computer code that was used to predict maximum possible ground motion near Yucca Mountain. Our SCEC-USGS group exercises have demonstrated that the specific computer code that was used for the Yucca Mountain simulations produces similar results to those produced by other computer codes when tackling the same science problem. We also found that the 3D ground motion simulations produced smaller ground motions than the 2D simulations.

A Method for WD40 Repeat Detection and Secondary Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

Wang, Yang; Jiang, Fan; Zhuo, Zhu; Wu, Xian-Hui; Wu, Yun-Dong

2013-01-01

WD40-repeat proteins (WD40s), as one of the largest protein families in eukaryotes, play vital roles in assembling protein-protein/DNA/RNA complexes. WD40s fold into similar β-propeller structures despite diversified sequences. A program WDSP (WD40 repeat protein Structure Predictor) has been developed to accurately identify WD40 repeats and predict their secondary structures. The method is designed specifically for WD40 proteins by incorporating both local residue information and non-local family-specific structural features. It overcomes the problem of highly diversified protein sequences and variable loops. In addition, WDSP achieves a better prediction in identifying multiple WD40-domain proteins by taking the global combination of repeats into consideration. In secondary structure prediction, the average Q3 accuracy of WDSP in jack-knife test reaches 93.7%. A disease related protein LRRK2 was used as a representive example to demonstrate the structure prediction. PMID:23776530

Outbreak of scrub typhus in Puducherry & Tamil Nadu during cooler months

PubMed Central

Stephen, Selvaraj; Sangeetha, Balakrishnan; Ambroise, Stanley; Sarangapani, Kengamuthu; Gunasekaran, Dhandapany; Hanifah, Mohamed; Somasundaram, Subramanian

2015-01-01

Background & objectives: The southern part of India has witnessed an increase in scrub typhus (ST) during the past ten years. ST outbreaks occurred during winter months but at intervals of one to three years. With only a few reports of ST in Puducherry, this study was undertaken to look for the persistence of ST cases in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu in the winter months. Methods: During relatively cooler months of September, 2012 to March, 2013, a total of 45 patients with fever and clinical suspicion of ST and who provided both acute and convalescent blood samples were included. Total WBC, platelet counts, serum creatinine, liver enzymes levels and a rapid immunochromatographic test (RICT) for ST were first done. Paired serum samples were analysed by two specific tests - ST IgM and IgG ELISA- and a non-specific, but widely used Weil-Felix (WF) test. Results: Of the 45 patients, 21 adults and seven children were confirmed as ST based on clinical and laboratory findings, and positivity in specific serological test(s). Setting ST IgM and IgG ELISA as reference, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for RICT were 91.67, 85.71 per cent; 90.48, 100 per cent; 91.67, 100 per cent and 90.48, 80.95 per cent, respectively. Similarly, for WF the values were 83.33, 75 per cent; 95.24, 100 per cent; 95.24, 100 per cent and 83.33, 70.83 per cent, respectively. Interpretation & conclusions: ST continues to persist in the cooler months in Puducherry and neighbouring Tamil Nadu with fever and myalgia as prominent features. None of the tests evaluated in this study was found to be ideal, but ST IgM/IgG ELISA was useful for batch testing and the non-specific WF test can be used in resource poor settings. PMID:26658595

Overgeneral autobiographical memory and chronic interpersonal stress as predictors of the course of depression in adolescents.

PubMed

Sumner, Jennifer A; Griffith, James W; Mineka, Susan; Rekart, Kathleen Newcomb; Zinbarg, Richard E; Craske, Michelle G

2011-01-01

This study investigated whether overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) predicts the course of depression in adolescents. As part of a larger longitudinal study of risk for emotional disorders, 55 adolescents with a past history of major depressive disorder or minor depressive disorder completed the Autobiographical Memory Test. Fewer specific memories predicted the subsequent onset of a major depressive episode (MDE) over a 16-month follow-up period, even when covarying baseline depressive symptoms. This main effect was qualified by an interaction between specific memories and chronic interpersonal stress: Fewer specific memories predicted greater risk of MDE onset over follow-up at high (but not low) levels of chronic interpersonal stress. Thus, our findings suggest that OGM, in interaction with chronic interpersonal stress, predicts the course of depression among adolescents, and highlight the importance of measuring interpersonal stress in OGM research. © 2010 Psychology Press, an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

Improved artificial neural networks in prediction of malignancy of lesions in contrast-enhanced MR-mammography.

PubMed

Vomweg, T W; Buscema, M; Kauczor, H U; Teifke, A; Intraligi, M; Terzi, S; Heussel, C P; Achenbach, T; Rieker, O; Mayer, D; Thelen, M

2003-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the capability of improved artificial neural networks (ANN) and additional novel training methods in distinguishing between benign and malignant breast lesions in contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance-mammography (MRM). A total of 604 histologically proven cases of contrast-enhanced lesions of the female breast at MRI were analyzed. Morphological, dynamic and clinical parameters were collected and stored in a database. The data set was divided into several groups using random or experimental methods [Training & Testing (T&T) algorithm] to train and test different ANNs. An additional novel computer program for input variable selection was applied. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and compared with a statistical method and an expert radiologist. After optimization of the distribution of cases among the training and testing sets by the T & T algorithm and the reduction of input variables by the Input Selection procedure a highly sophisticated ANN achieved a sensitivity of 93.6% and a specificity of 91.9% in predicting malignancy of lesions within an independent prediction sample set. The best statistical method reached a sensitivity of 90.5% and a specificity of 68.9%. An expert radiologist performed better than the statistical method but worse than the ANN (sensitivity 92.1%, specificity 85.6%). Features extracted out of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRM and additional clinical data can be successfully analyzed by advanced ANNs. The quality of the resulting network strongly depends on the training methods, which are improved by the use of novel training tools. The best results of an improved ANN outperform expert radiologists.

Force limits measured on a space shuttle flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scharton, T.

2000-01-01

The random vibration forces between a payload and the sidewall of the space shuttle have been measured in flight and compared with the force specifications used in ground vibration tests. The flight data are in agreement with a semi-empirical method, which is widely used to predict vibration test force limits.

Summarising and validating test accuracy results across multiple studies for use in clinical practice.

PubMed

Riley, Richard D; Ahmed, Ikhlaaq; Debray, Thomas P A; Willis, Brian H; Noordzij, J Pieter; Higgins, Julian P T; Deeks, Jonathan J

2015-06-15

Following a meta-analysis of test accuracy studies, the translation of summary results into clinical practice is potentially problematic. The sensitivity, specificity and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of a test may differ substantially from the average meta-analysis findings, because of heterogeneity. Clinicians thus need more guidance: given the meta-analysis, is a test likely to be useful in new populations, and if so, how should test results inform the probability of existing disease (for a diagnostic test) or future adverse outcome (for a prognostic test)? We propose ways to address this. Firstly, following a meta-analysis, we suggest deriving prediction intervals and probability statements about the potential accuracy of a test in a new population. Secondly, we suggest strategies on how clinicians should derive post-test probabilities (PPV and NPV) in a new population based on existing meta-analysis results and propose a cross-validation approach for examining and comparing their calibration performance. Application is made to two clinical examples. In the first example, the joint probability that both sensitivity and specificity will be >80% in a new population is just 0.19, because of a low sensitivity. However, the summary PPV of 0.97 is high and calibrates well in new populations, with a probability of 0.78 that the true PPV will be at least 0.95. In the second example, post-test probabilities calibrate better when tailored to the prevalence in the new population, with cross-validation revealing a probability of 0.97 that the observed NPV will be within 10% of the predicted NPV. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The relative importance of two different mathematical abilities to mathematical achievement.

PubMed

Nunes, Terezinha; Bryant, Peter; Barros, Rossana; Sylva, Kathy

2012-03-01

Two distinct abilities, mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skill, might make separate and specific contributions to mathematical achievement. However, there is little evidence to inform theory and educational practice on this matter. The aims of this study were (1) to assess whether mathematical reasoning and arithmetic make independent contributions to the longitudinal prediction of mathematical achievement over 5 years and (2) to test the specificity of this prediction. Data from Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were available on 2,579 participants for analyses of KS2 achievement and on 1,680 for the analyses of KS3 achievement. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to assess the independence and specificity of the contribution of mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skill to the prediction of achievement in KS2 and KS3 mathematics, science, and English. Age, intelligence, and working memory (WM) were controls in these analyses. Mathematical reasoning and arithmetic did make independent contributions to the prediction of mathematical achievement; mathematical reasoning was by far the stronger predictor of the two. These predictions were specific in so far as these measures were more strongly related to mathematics than to science or English. Intelligence and WM were non-specific predictors; intelligence contributed more to the prediction of science than of maths, and WM predicted maths and English equally well. There is clear justification for making a distinction between mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skills. The implication is that schools must plan explicitly to improve mathematical reasoning as well as arithmetic skills. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Single neuropsychological test scores associated with rate of cognitive decline in early Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Parikh, Mili; Hynan, Linda S; Weiner, Myron F; Lacritz, Laura; Ringe, Wendy; Cullum, C Munro

2014-01-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) characteristically begins with episodic memory impairment followed by other cognitive deficits; however, the course of illness varies, with substantial differences in the rate of cognitive decline. For research and clinical purposes it would be useful to distinguish between persons who will progress slowly from persons who will progress at an average or faster rate. Our objective was to use neurocognitive performance features and disease-specific and health information to determine a predictive model for the rate of cognitive decline in participants with mild AD. We reviewed the records of a series of 96 consecutive participants with mild AD from 1995 to 2011 who had been administered selected neurocognitive tests and clinical measures. Based on Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) of functional and cognitive decline over 2 years, participants were classified as Faster (n = 45) or Slower (n = 51) Progressors. Stepwise logistic regression analyses using neurocognitive performance features, disease-specific, health, and demographic variables were performed. Neuropsychological scores that distinguished Faster from Slower Progressors included Trail Making Test - A, Digit Symbol, and California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) Total Learned and Primacy Recall. No disease-specific, health, or demographic variable predicted rate of progression; however, history of heart disease showed a trend. Among the neuropsychological variables, Trail Making Test - A best distinguished Faster from Slower Progressors, with an overall accuracy of 68%. In an omnibus model including neuropsychological, disease-specific, health, and demographic variables, only Trail Making Test - A distinguished between groups. Several neuropsychological performance features were associated with the rate of cognitive decline in mild AD, with baseline Trail Making Test - A performance best separating those who declined at an average or faster rate from those who showed slower progression.

Does exposure to simulated patient cases improve accuracy of clinicians' predictive value estimates of diagnostic test results? A within-subjects experiment at St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Armstrong, Bonnie; Spaniol, Julia; Persaud, Nav

2018-02-13

Clinicians often overestimate the probability of a disease given a positive test result (positive predictive value; PPV) and the probability of no disease given a negative test result (negative predictive value; NPV). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether experiencing simulated patient cases (ie, an 'experience format') would promote more accurate PPV and NPV estimates compared with a numerical format. Participants were presented with information about three diagnostic tests for the same fictitious disease and were asked to estimate the PPV and NPV of each test. Tests varied with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Information about each test was presented once in the numerical format and once in the experience format. The study used a 2 (format: numerical vs experience) × 3 (diagnostic test: gold standard vs low sensitivity vs low specificity) within-subjects design. The study was completed online, via Qualtrics (Provo, Utah, USA). 50 physicians (12 clinicians and 38 residents) from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, completed the study. All participants had completed at least 1 year of residency. Estimation accuracy was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE; absolute difference between estimate and true predictive value). PPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=32.6%, 95% CI 26.8% to 38.4%) compared with the experience format (MAE=15.9%, 95% CI 11.8% to 20.0%, d =0.697, P<0.001). Likewise, NPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=24.4%, 95% CI 14.5% to 34.3%) than in the experience format (MAE=11.0%, 95% CI 6.5% to 15.5%, d =0.303, P=0.015). Exposure to simulated patient cases promotes accurate estimation of predictive values in clinicians. This finding carries implications for diagnostic training and practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Sensitivity, specificity and comparison of three commercially available immunological tests in the diagnosis of Cryptosporidium species in animals.

PubMed

Danišová, Olga; Halánová, Monika; Valenčáková, Alexandra; Luptáková, Lenka

The study was conducted to compare the specificity of immunological diagnostic methods used for the diagnosis of Cryptosporidium species capable of causing life-threatening infection in both immunosuppressed and immunocompetent patients. For the detection of Cryptosporidium species in 79 animals with diarrhoea, we used three Copro-antigen tests: RIDASCREEN ® Cryptosporidium test, Cryptosporidium 2nd Generation (ELISA) and RIDA ® QUICK Cryptosporidium. For immunoassays we used positive and negative samples detected by means of polymerase chain reaction and validated by sequencing and nested polymerase chain reaction to confirm the presence six different species of Cryptosporidium species. Prevalence of cryptosporidiosis in the entire group determined by enzyme immunoassay, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, immuno-chromatographic test and polymerase chain reaction was 34.17%, 27.84%, 6.33% and 27.84%, respectively. Sensitivity of animal samples with enzyme immunoassay, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, and immuno-chromatographic test was 63.6%, 40.9% and 22.7%, resp., when questionable samples were considered positive, whereas specificity of enzyme immunoassay, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and immuno-chromatographic test was 75.9%, 78.9% and 100%, respectively. Positive predictive values and negative predictive values were different for all the tests. These differences results are controversial and therefore reliability and reproducibility of immunoassays as the only diagnostic method is questionable. The use of various Cryptosporidium species in diagnosis based on immunological testing and different results obtained by individual tests indicate potential differences in Copro-antigens produced by individual Cryptosporidium species. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

A clinical test of stepping and change of direction to identify multiple falling older adults.

PubMed

Dite, Wayne; Temple, Viviene A

2002-11-01

To establish the reliability and validity of a new clinical test of dynamic standing balance, the Four Square Step Test (FSST), to evaluate its sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value in identifying subjects who fall, and to compare it with 3 established balance and mobility tests. A 3-group comparison performed by using 3 validated tests and 1 new test. A rehabilitation center and university medical school in Australia. Eighty-one community-dwelling adults over the age of 65 years. Subjects were age- and gender-matched to form 3 groups: multiple fallers, nonmultiple fallers, and healthy comparisons. Not applicable. Time to complete the FSST and Timed Up and Go test and the number of steps to complete the Step Test and Functional Reach Test distance. High reliability was found for interrater (n=30, intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]=.99) and retest reliability (n=20, ICC=.98). Evidence for validity was found through correlation with other existing balance tests. Validity was supported, with the FSST showing significantly better performance scores (P<.01) for each of the healthier and less impaired groups. The FSST also revealed a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 88% to 100%, and a positive predictive value of 86%. As a clinical test, the FSST is reliable, valid, easy to score, quick to administer, requires little space, and needs no special equipment. It is unique in that it involves stepping over low objects (2.5cm) and movement in 4 directions. The FSST had higher combined sensitivity and specificity for identifying differences between groups in the selected sample population of older adults than the 3 tests with which it was compared. Copyright 2002 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

PubMed

Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

2015-11-22

Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

The predictive value of skin prick testing for challenge-proven food allergy: a systematic review.

PubMed

Peters, Rachel L; Gurrin, Lyle C; Allen, Katrina J

2012-06-01

Immunoglobulin E-mediated (IgE) food allergy affects 6-8% of children, and the prevalence is believed to be increasing. The gold standard of food allergy diagnosis is oral food challenges (OFCs); however, they are resource-consuming and potentially dangerous. Skin prick tests (SPTs) are able to detect the presence of allergen-specific IgE antibodies (sensitization), but they have low specificity for clinically significant food allergy. To reduce the need for OFCs, it has been suggested that children forgo an OFC if their SPT wheal size exceeds a cutoff that has a high predictability for food allergy. Although data for these studies are almost always gathered from high-risk populations, the 95% positive predictive values (PPVs) vary substantially between studies. SPT thresholds with a high probability of food allergy generated from these studies may not be generalizable to other populations, because of highly selective samples and variability in participant's age, test allergens, and food challenge protocol. Standardization of SPT devices and allergens, OFC protocols including standardized cessation criteria, and population-based samples would all help to improve generalizability of PPVs of SPTs. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Contingent use of fetal fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement in women with preterm labour.

PubMed

Audibert, François; Fortin, Suzanne; Delvin, Edgard; Djemli, Anissa; Brunet, Suzanne; Dubé, Johanne; Fraser, William D

2010-04-01

To evaluate the contingent use of fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) measurement to predict preterm delivery, and to validate the use of phosphorylated IGFBP-1 as a predictor of preterm delivery. We recruited 71 women with a clinical diagnosis of preterm labour between 24 and 34 weeks, and tested for the presence of fFN and IGFBP-1 in the cervicovaginal secretions of all women immediately before CL measurement. Among the 66 women with complete outcome, four were excluded from the final analysis as two had assessment for fFN but no CL measurement, and another two had CL measured but no screening for fFN. Among 62 women with complete results, the mean gestational age at recruitment was 29.4 +/- 2.5 weeks. Six women (9.6%) delivered within two weeks of assessment, and 14 (22.5%) delivered before 34 weeks. A positive fFN test resulted in a sensitivity of 83%, a specificity of 84%, a positive predictive value of 36%, and a negative predictive value of 98% for delivery within two weeks; for CL < 25 mm, these figures were 50%, 52%, 10%, and 91%, respectively, and for a positive IGFBP-1, they were 17%, 93%, 20%, and 91%, respectively. A policy of contingent use of fFN (in which the test was assumed to be positive if CL < or = 15 mm, and fFN was only measured if the CL was between 16 and 30 mm) gave sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 80%, 61%, 17%, and 97%, respectively for delivery within two weeks. Using this contingent use protocol, only one third of women needed fFN screening after CL measurement. In this study, IGFBP-1 screening did not predict preterm delivery and fFN screening provided the best predictive capacity. A policy of contingent use of testing for fFN after CL measurement, or contingent use of CL measurement after fFN screening (depending on available resources) is a promising approach to limit use of resources.

Decline in word-finding: The objective cognitive finding most relevant to patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

PubMed

Pauli, Carla; de Oliveira Thais, Maria Emilia Rodrigues; Guarnieri, Ricardo; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Ben, Juliana; Linhares, Marcelo Neves; Markowitsch, Hans Joachim; Wolf, Peter; Wiebe, Samuel; Lin, Katia; Walz, Roger

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the following: i) the objective impairment in neuropsychological tests that were associated with the subjective perception of cognitive function decline in Brazilian patients who underwent mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) surgery and ii) the predictive variables for those impaired objective neuropsychological tests. Forty-eight adults with MTLE (27 right HS and 23 male) were divided according to their perception of changes (Decline or No-decline) of cognitive function domain of the QOLIE-31 questionnaire applied before and 1year after the ATL. The mean (SD) of changes in the raw score difference of the neuropsychological tests before and after the ATL was compared between Decline and No-decline groups. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to assess the optimum cutoff points of neuropsychological test score changes to predict patient-reported subjective cognitive decline. Six (12.5%) patients reported a perception of cognitive function decline after ATL. Among the 25 cognitive tests analyzed, only changes in the Boston Naming Test (BNT) were associated with subjective cognitive decline reported by patients. A reduction of ≥8 points in the raw score of BNT after surgery had 91% of sensitivity and 45% specificity for predicting subjective perception of cognitive function decline by the patient. Left side surgery and age older than 40years were more associated with an important BNT reduction with overall accuracy of 91.7%, 95% predictive ability for no impairment, and 75% for impairment of cognitive function. Impairment in word-finding seems to be the objective cognitive finding most relevant to Brazilian patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. Similar to American patients, the side of surgery and age are good predictors for no decline in the BNT, but shows a lower accuracy to predict its decline. If replicated in other populations, the results may have wider implications for the surgical management of patients with drug-resistant MTLE. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Risk of co-occuring psychopathology: testing a prediction of expectancy theory.

PubMed

Capron, Daniel W; Norr, Aaron M; Schmidt, Norman B

2013-01-01

Despite the high impact of anxiety sensitivity (AS; a fear of anxiety related sensations) research, almost no research attention has been paid to its parent theory, Reiss' expectancy theory (ET). ET has gone largely unexamined to this point, including the prediction that AS is a better predictor of number of fears than current anxiety. To test Reiss' prediction, we used a large (N = 317) clinical sample of anxiety outpatients. Specifically, we examined whether elevated AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety and non-anxiety disorder diagnoses in this sample. Consistent with ET, findings indicated that AS predicted number of comorbid anxiety disorder diagnoses above and beyond current anxiety symptoms. Also, AS did not predict the number of comorbid non-anxiety diagnoses when current anxiety symptoms were accounted for. These findings represent an important examination of a prediction of Reiss' ET and are consistent with the idea that AS may be a useful transdiagnostic treatment target. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SVM-Based System for Prediction of Epileptic Seizures from iEEG Signal

PubMed Central

Cherkassky, Vladimir; Lee, Jieun; Veber, Brandon; Patterson, Edward E.; Brinkmann, Benjamin H.; Worrell, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Objective This paper describes a data-analytic modeling approach for prediction of epileptic seizures from intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recording of brain activity. Even though it is widely accepted that statistical characteristics of iEEG signal change prior to seizures, robust seizure prediction remains a challenging problem due to subject-specific nature of data-analytic modeling. Methods Our work emphasizes understanding of clinical considerations important for iEEG-based seizure prediction, and proper translation of these clinical considerations into data-analytic modeling assumptions. Several design choices during pre-processing and post-processing are considered and investigated for their effect on seizure prediction accuracy. Results Our empirical results show that the proposed SVM-based seizure prediction system can achieve robust prediction of preictal and interictal iEEG segments from dogs with epilepsy. The sensitivity is about 90–100%, and the false-positive rate is about 0–0.3 times per day. The results also suggest good prediction is subject-specific (dog or human), in agreement with earlier studies. Conclusion Good prediction performance is possible only if the training data contain sufficiently many seizure episodes, i.e., at least 5–7 seizures. Significance The proposed system uses subject-specific modeling and unbalanced training data. This system also utilizes three different time scales during training and testing stages. PMID:27362758

Screening for therapeutic trials and treatment indication in clinical practice: MACK-3, a new blood test for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH.

PubMed

Boursier, J; Anty, R; Vonghia, L; Moal, V; Vanwolleghem, T; Canivet, C M; Michalak, S; Bonnafous, S; Michielsen, P; Oberti, F; Iannelli, A; Van Gaal, L; Patouraux, S; Blanchet, O; Verrijken, A; Gual, P; Rousselet, M-C; Driessen, A; Hunault, G; Bertrais, S; Tran, A; Calès, P; Francque, S

2018-05-01

The composite histological endpoint comprising nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and NAFLD activity score ≥4 and advanced fibrosis (F ≥ 2) ("fibrotic NASH") is becoming an important diagnostic target in NAFLD: it is currently used to select patients for inclusion in phase III therapeutic trials and will ultimately be used to indicate treatment in clinical practice once the new drugs are approved. To develop a new blood test specifically dedicated for this new diagnostic target of interest. Eight Hundred and forty-six biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from three centres (Angers, Nice, Antwerp) were randomised into derivation and validation sets. The blood fibrosis tests BARD, NFS and FIB4 had poor accuracy for fibrotic NASH with respective AUROC: 0.566 ± 0.023, 0.654 ± 0.023, 0.732 ± 0.021. In the derivation set, fibrotic NASH was independently predicted by AST, HOMA and CK18; all three were combined in the new blood test MACK-3 (hoMa, Ast, CK18) for which 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity cut-offs were calculated. In the validation set, MACK-3 had a significantly higher AUROC (0.847 ± 0.030, P ≤ 0.002) than blood fibrosis tests. Using liver biopsy in the grey zone between the two cut-offs (36.0% of the patients), MACK-3 provided excellent accuracy for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH with 93.3% well-classified patients, sensitivity: 90.0%, specificity: 94.2%, positive predictive value: 81.8% and negative predictive value: 97.0%. The new blood test MACK-3 accurately diagnoses fibrotic NASH. This new test will facilitate patient screening and inclusion in NAFLD therapeutic trials and will enable the identification of patients who will benefit from the treatments once approved. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combination Testing Using a Single MSH5 Variant alongside HLA Haplotypes Improves the Sensitivity of Predicting Coeliac Disease Risk in the Polish Population.

PubMed

Paziewska, Agnieszka; Cukrowska, Bozena; Dabrowska, Michalina; Goryca, Krzysztof; Piatkowska, Magdalena; Kluska, Anna; Mikula, Michal; Karczmarski, Jakub; Oralewska, Beata; Rybak, Anna; Socha, Jerzy; Balabas, Aneta; Zeber-Lubecka, Natalia; Ambrozkiewicz, Filip; Konopka, Ewa; Trojanowska, Ilona; Zagroba, Malgorzata; Szperl, Malgorzata; Ostrowski, Jerzy

2015-01-01

Assessment of non-HLA variants alongside standard HLA testing was previously shown to improve the identification of potential coeliac disease (CD) patients. We intended to identify new genetic variants associated with CD in the Polish population that would improve CD risk prediction when used alongside HLA haplotype analysis. DNA samples of 336 CD and 264 unrelated healthy controls were used to create DNA pools for a genome wide association study (GWAS). GWAS findings were validated with individual HLA tag single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing of 473 patients and 714 healthy controls. Association analysis using four HLA-tagging SNPs showed that, as was found in other populations, positive predicting genotypes (HLA-DQ2.5/DQ2.5, HLA-DQ2.5/DQ2.2, and HLA-DQ2.5/DQ8) were found at higher frequencies in CD patients than in healthy control individuals in the Polish population. Both CD-associated SNPs discovered by GWAS were found in the CD susceptibility region, confirming the previously-determined association of the major histocompatibility (MHC) region with CD pathogenesis. The two most significant SNPs from the GWAS were rs9272346 (HLA-dependent; localized within 1 Kb of DQA1) and rs3130484 (HLA-independent; mapped to MSH5). Specificity of CD prediction using the four HLA-tagging SNPs achieved 92.9%, but sensitivity was only 45.5%. However, when a testing combination of the HLA-tagging SNPs and the MSH5 SNP was used, specificity decreased to 80%, and sensitivity increased to 74%. This study confirmed that improvement of CD risk prediction sensitivity could be achieved by including non-HLA SNPs alongside HLA SNPs in genetic testing.

Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

PubMed

Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

2018-05-01

To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Relationship-Specific Incentive and Threat Sensitivities: Predicting Satisfaction and Affect in Adult Intimate Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Kleinman, Brighid M.; Kaczynski, Karen J.; Carver, Charles S.

2010-01-01

Self-report scales assessing relationship-specific incentive and threat sensitivity were created. Initial tests of factor structure and associations with relationship quality were conducted in a sample of persons in intimate relationships (Study 1). Associations with conceptually related measures were examined to determine convergent and…

Lexicality and Frequency in Specific Language Impairment: Accuracy and Error Data from Two Nonword Repetition Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Gary; Tamburelli, Marco; Watson, Sarah E.; Gobet, Fernand; Pine, Julian M.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Deficits in phonological working memory and deficits in phonological processing have both been considered potential explanatory factors in specific language impairment (SLI). Manipulations of the lexicality and phonotactic frequency of nonwords enable contrasting predictions to be derived from these hypotheses. Method: Eighteen typically…

Pneumococcal vaccine targeting strategy for older adults: customized risk profiling.

PubMed

Balicer, Ran D; Cohen, Chandra J; Leibowitz, Morton; Feldman, Becca S; Brufman, Ilan; Roberts, Craig; Hoshen, Moshe

2014-02-12

Current pneumococcal vaccine campaigns take a broad, primarily age-based approach to immunization targeting, overlooking many clinical and administrative considerations necessary in disease prevention and resource planning for specific patient populations. We aim to demonstrate the utility of a population-specific predictive model for hospital-treated pneumonia to direct effective vaccine targeting. Data was extracted for 1,053,435 members of an Israeli HMO, age 50 and older, during the study period 2008-2010. We developed and validated a logistic regression model to predict hospital-treated pneumonia using training and test samples, including a set of standard and population-specific risk factors. The model's predictive value was tested for prospectively identifying cases of pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), and was compared to the existing international paradigm for patient immunization targeting. In a multivariate regression, age, co-morbidity burden and previous pneumonia events were most strongly positively associated with hospital-treated pneumonia. The model predicting hospital-treated pneumonia yielded a c-statistic of 0.80. Utilizing the predictive model, the top 17% highest-risk within the study validation population were targeted to detect 54% of those members who were subsequently treated for hospitalized pneumonia in the follow up period. The high-risk population identified through this model included 46% of the follow-up year's IPD cases, and 27% of community-treated pneumonia cases. These outcomes were compared with international guidelines for risk for pneumococcal diseases that accurately identified only 35% of hospitalized pneumonia, 41% of IPD cases and 21% of community-treated pneumonia. We demonstrate that a customized model for vaccine targeting performs better than international guidelines, and therefore, risk modeling may allow for more precise vaccine targeting and resource allocation than current national and international guidelines. Health care managers and policy-makers may consider the strategic potential of utilizing clinical and administrative databases for creating population-specific risk prediction models to inform vaccination campaigns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Predicting Increased Blood Pressure Using Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Golino, Hudson Fernandes; Amaral, Liliany Souza de Brito; Duarte, Stenio Fernando Pimentel; Soares, Telma de Jesus; dos Reis, Luciana Araujo

2014-01-01

The present study investigates the prediction of increased blood pressure by body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumference (HC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) using a machine learning technique named classification tree. Data were collected from 400 college students (56.3% women) from 16 to 63 years old. Fifteen trees were calculated in the training group for each sex, using different numbers and combinations of predictors. The result shows that for women BMI, WC, and WHR are the combination that produces the best prediction, since it has the lowest deviance (87.42), misclassification (.19), and the higher pseudo R 2 (.43). This model presented a sensitivity of 80.86% and specificity of 81.22% in the training set and, respectively, 45.65% and 65.15% in the test sample. For men BMI, WC, HC, and WHC showed the best prediction with the lowest deviance (57.25), misclassification (.16), and the higher pseudo R 2 (.46). This model had a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 86.25% in the training set and, respectively, 58.38% and 69.70% in the test set. Finally, the result from the classification tree analysis was compared with traditional logistic regression, indicating that the former outperformed the latter in terms of predictive power. PMID:24669313

Predicting increased blood pressure using machine learning.

PubMed

Golino, Hudson Fernandes; Amaral, Liliany Souza de Brito; Duarte, Stenio Fernando Pimentel; Gomes, Cristiano Mauro Assis; Soares, Telma de Jesus; Dos Reis, Luciana Araujo; Santos, Joselito

2014-01-01

The present study investigates the prediction of increased blood pressure by body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumference (HC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) using a machine learning technique named classification tree. Data were collected from 400 college students (56.3% women) from 16 to 63 years old. Fifteen trees were calculated in the training group for each sex, using different numbers and combinations of predictors. The result shows that for women BMI, WC, and WHR are the combination that produces the best prediction, since it has the lowest deviance (87.42), misclassification (.19), and the higher pseudo R (2) (.43). This model presented a sensitivity of 80.86% and specificity of 81.22% in the training set and, respectively, 45.65% and 65.15% in the test sample. For men BMI, WC, HC, and WHC showed the best prediction with the lowest deviance (57.25), misclassification (.16), and the higher pseudo R (2) (.46). This model had a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 86.25% in the training set and, respectively, 58.38% and 69.70% in the test set. Finally, the result from the classification tree analysis was compared with traditional logistic regression, indicating that the former outperformed the latter in terms of predictive power.

ANDROMEDA DWARFS IN LIGHT OF MOND. II. TESTING PRIOR PREDICTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGaugh, Stacy; Milgrom, Mordehai

We employ recently published measurements of the velocity dispersions in the newly discovered dwarf satellite galaxies of Andromeda to test our previously published predictions of this quantity. The data are in good agreement with our specific predictions for each dwarf made a priori with modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), with reasonable stellar mass-to-light ratios, and no dark matter, while Newtonian dynamics point to quite large mass discrepancies in these systems. MOND distinguishes between regimes where the internal field of the dwarf, or the external field of the host, dominates. The data appear to recognize this distinction, which is a unique featuremore » of MOND not explicable in ΛCDM.« less

Overgeneral Autobiographical Memory as a Predictor of the Course of Depression: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sumner, Jennifer A.; Griffith, James W.; Mineka, Susan

2010-01-01

Overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) is a robust phenomenon in depression, but the extent to which OGM predicts the course of depression is not well-established. This meta-analysis synthesized data from 15 studies to examine the degree to which OGM 1) correlates with depressive symptoms at follow-up, and 2) predicts depressive symptoms at follow-up over and above initial depressive symptoms. Although the effects are small, specific and categoric/overgeneral memories generated during the Autobiographical Memory Test significantly predicted the course of depression. Fewer specific memories and more categoric/overgeneral memories were associated with higher follow-up depressive symptoms, and predicted higher follow-up symptoms over and above initial symptoms. Potential moderators were also examined. The age and clinical depression status of participants, as well as the length of follow-up between the two depressive symptom assessments, significantly moderated the predictive relationship between OGM and the course of depression. The predictive relationship between specific memories and follow-up depressive symptoms became greater with increasing age and a shorter length of follow-up, and the predictive relationship was stronger for participants with clinical depression diagnoses than for nonclinical participants. These findings highlight OGM as a predictor of the course of depression, and future studies should investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. PMID:20399418

Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

2018-04-27

Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceptual load in sport and the heuristic value of the perceptual load paradigm in examining expertise-related perceptual-cognitive adaptations.

PubMed

Furley, Philip; Memmert, Daniel; Schmid, Simone

2013-03-01

In two experiments, we transferred perceptual load theory to the dynamic field of team sports and tested the predictions derived from the theory using a novel task and stimuli. We tested a group of college students (N = 33) and a group of expert team sport players (N = 32) on a general perceptual load task and a complex, soccer-specific perceptual load task in order to extend the understanding of the applicability of perceptual load theory and further investigate whether distractor interference may differ between the groups, as the sport-specific processing task may not exhaust the processing capacity of the expert participants. In both, the general and the specific task, the pattern of results supported perceptual load theory and demonstrates that the predictions of the theory also transfer to more complex, unstructured situations. Further, perceptual load was the only determinant of distractor processing, as we neither found expertise effects in the general perceptual load task nor the sport-specific task. We discuss the heuristic utility of using response-competition paradigms for studying both general and domain-specific perceptual-cognitive adaptations.

A post audit of a model-designed ground water extraction system.

PubMed

Andersen, Peter F; Lu, Silong

2003-01-01

Model post audits test the predictive capabilities of ground water models and shed light on their practical limitations. In the work presented here, ground water model predictions were used to design an extraction/treatment/injection system at a military ammunition facility and then were re-evaluated using site-specific water-level data collected approximately one year after system startup. The water-level data indicated that performance specifications for the design, i.e., containment, had been achieved over the required area, but that predicted water-level changes were greater than observed, particularly in the deeper zones of the aquifer. Probable model error was investigated by determining the changes that were required to obtain an improved match to observed water-level changes. This analysis suggests that the originally estimated hydraulic properties were in error by a factor of two to five. These errors may have resulted from attributing less importance to data from deeper zones of the aquifer and from applying pumping test results to a volume of material that was larger than the volume affected by the pumping test. To determine the importance of these errors to the predictions of interest, the models were used to simulate the capture zones resulting from the originally estimated and updated parameter values. The study suggests that, despite the model error, the ground water model contributed positively to the design of the remediation system.

Development of a high-specific-speed centrifugal compressor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodgers, C.

1997-07-01

This paper describes the development of a subscale single-stage centrifugal compressor with a dimensionless specific speed (Ns) of 1.8, originally designed for full-size application as a high volume flow, low pressure ratio, gas booster compressor. The specific stage is noteworthy in that it provides a benchmark representing the performance potential of very high-specific-speed compressors, of which limited information is found in the open literature. Stage and component test performance characteristics are presented together with traverse results at the impeller exit. Traverse test results were compared with recent CFD computational predictions for an exploratory analytical calibration of a very high-specific-speed impellermore » geometry. The tested subscale (0.583) compressor essentially satisfied design performance expectations with an overall stage efficiency of 74% including, excessive exit casing losses. It was estimated that stage efficiency could be increased to 81% with exit casing losses halved.« less

New Prediction Model for Probe Specificity in an Allele-Specific Extension Reaction for Haplotype-Specific Extraction (HSE) of Y Chromosome Mixtures

PubMed Central

Rothe, Jessica; Watkins, Norman E.; Nagy, Marion

2012-01-01

Allele-specific extension reactions (ASERs) use 3′ terminus-specific primers for the selective extension of completely annealed matches by polymerase. The ability of the polymerase to extend non-specific 3′ terminal mismatches leads to a failure of the reaction, a process that is only partly understood and predictable, and often requires time-consuming assay design. In our studies we investigated haplotype-specific extraction (HSE) for the separation of male DNA mixtures. HSE is an ASER and provides the ability to distinguish between diploid chromosomes from one or more individuals. Here, we show that the success of HSE and allele-specific extension depend strongly on the concentration difference between complete match and 3′ terminal mismatch. Using the oligonucleotide-modeling platform Visual Omp, we demonstrated the dependency of the discrimination power of the polymerase on match- and mismatch-target hybridization between different probe lengths. Therefore, the probe specificity in HSE could be predicted by performing a relative comparison of different probe designs with their simulated differences between the duplex concentration of target-probe match and mismatches. We tested this new model for probe design in more than 300 HSE reactions with 137 different probes and obtained an accordance of 88%. PMID:23049901

New prediction model for probe specificity in an allele-specific extension reaction for haplotype-specific extraction (HSE) of Y chromosome mixtures.

PubMed

Rothe, Jessica; Watkins, Norman E; Nagy, Marion

2012-01-01

Allele-specific extension reactions (ASERs) use 3' terminus-specific primers for the selective extension of completely annealed matches by polymerase. The ability of the polymerase to extend non-specific 3' terminal mismatches leads to a failure of the reaction, a process that is only partly understood and predictable, and often requires time-consuming assay design. In our studies we investigated haplotype-specific extraction (HSE) for the separation of male DNA mixtures. HSE is an ASER and provides the ability to distinguish between diploid chromosomes from one or more individuals. Here, we show that the success of HSE and allele-specific extension depend strongly on the concentration difference between complete match and 3' terminal mismatch. Using the oligonucleotide-modeling platform Visual Omp, we demonstrated the dependency of the discrimination power of the polymerase on match- and mismatch-target hybridization between different probe lengths. Therefore, the probe specificity in HSE could be predicted by performing a relative comparison of different probe designs with their simulated differences between the duplex concentration of target-probe match and mismatches. We tested this new model for probe design in more than 300 HSE reactions with 137 different probes and obtained an accordance of 88%.

Head-shaking nystagmus predicts greater disability in unilateral peripheral vestibulopathy.

PubMed

Angeli, Simon I; Velandia, Sandra; Snapp, Hillary

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the association of the bedside test of head-shaking nystagmus (HSN) with patients' self-perceived dizziness handicap as well as this test's sensitivity and specificity in unilateral peripheral vestibular hypofunction. A retrospective case-control study was performed. The study was held at an academic, tertiary referral center. Fifty-three adult patients with unilateral peripheral hypofunction defined by the caloric test of the videonystagmography with documented bedside HSN and who had completed questionnaires of self-perceived dizziness handicap were included. The sensitivity and specificity of the bedside HSN in patients and 10 healthy controls in diagnosing unilateral vestibular hypofunction defined by videonystagmographic caloric testing and by abnormal gain and symmetry of the vestibular-ocular reflex by rotary chair testing were determined. Scores of the screening test of the Dizziness Handicap Index and Functional Level Scale questionnaires were taken. When using the caloric irrigation test as the reference standard for unilateral vestibular hypofunction, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of the bedside HSN were 31%, 96%, and 97%, respectively. When comparing with results of rotational chair testing (vestibular-ocular reflex gain and symmetry), the sensitivity of the HSN test increases to 71%. Patients with positive bedside HSN had higher scores (greater self-perceived dizziness handicap) of the Dizziness Handicap Index (P = .049) and higher (worse) scores of the Functional Level Scale (P = .0377) than those with negative bedside HSN (Wilcoxon rank test). Greater perceived handicap was correlated with a positive bedside HSN in patients with unilateral peripheral vestibulopathy. The HSN has sufficient sensitivity to be used as screening test of uncompensated vestibulopathy in this series. However, a negative HSN alone does not rule out the diagnosis of peripheral vestibular dysfunction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-volatile fatty acids in the diagnosis of non-specific vaginitis.

PubMed Central

Ison, C A; Easmon, C S; Dawson, S G; Southerton, G; Harris, J W

1983-01-01

In the vaginal washings of 100 women with symptomatic non-specific vaginitis a succinate/lactate ratio of greater than or equal to 0.4 had a diagnostic sensitivity of 80%, a specificity of 83% for this condition. The predictive value of a positive test was 94%, but that of a negative test was only 55%. A strong association between the presence of Gardnerella vaginalis, anaerobes, a vaginal pH of above 4.5, and amines was found not only in non-specific vaginitis, but also in trichomonal and gonococcal infection. A variety of primary changes may encourage the multiplication of both gardnerellae and anaerobes and their presence in non-specific vaginitis may be a secondary rather than a primary event. PMID:6606653

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

Minimum Performance on Clinical Tests of Physical Function to Predict Walking 6,000 Steps/Day in Knee Osteoarthritis: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Master, Hiral; Thoma, Louise M; Christiansen, Meredith B; Polakowski, Emily; Schmitt, Laura A; White, Daniel K

2018-07-01

Evidence of physical function difficulties, such as difficulty rising from a chair, may limit daily walking for people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). The purpose of this study was to identify minimum performance thresholds on clinical tests of physical function predictive to walking ≥6,000 steps/day. This benchmark is known to discriminate people with knee OA who develop functional limitation over time from those who do not. Using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative, we quantified daily walking as average steps/day from an accelerometer (Actigraph GT1M) worn for ≥10 hours/day over 1 week. Physical function was quantified using 3 performance-based clinical tests: 5 times sit-to-stand test, walking speed (tested over 20 meters), and 400-meter walk test. To identify minimum performance thresholds for daily walking, we calculated physical function values corresponding to high specificity (80-95%) to predict walking ≥6,000 steps/day. Among 1,925 participants (mean ± SD age 65.1 ± 9.1 years, mean ± SD body mass index 28.4 ± 4.8 kg/m 2 , and 55% female) with valid accelerometer data, 54.9% walked ≥6,000 steps/day. High specificity thresholds of physical function for walking ≥6,000 steps/day ranged 11.4-14.0 seconds on the 5 times sit-to-stand test, 1.13-1.26 meters/second for walking speed, or 315-349 seconds on the 400-meter walk test. Not meeting these minimum performance thresholds on clinical tests of physical function may indicate inadequate physical ability to walk ≥6,000 steps/day for people with knee OA. Rehabilitation may be indicated to address underlying impairments limiting physical function. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

Diagnostic value and cost utility analysis for urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination as screening tests for urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Wiwanitkit, Viroj; Udomsantisuk, Nibhond; Boonchalermvichian, Chaiyaporn

2005-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic properties of urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination for screening for urinary tract infection (UTI), and to perform an additional cost utility analysis. This descriptive study was performed on 95 urine samples sent for urine culture to the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University. The first part of the study was to determine the diagnostic properties of two screening tests (urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination). Urine culture was set as the gold standard and the results from both methods were compared to this. The second part of this study was to perform a cost utility analysis. The sensitivity of urine Gram stain was 96.2%, the specificity 93.0%, the positive predictive value 94.3% and the negative predictive value 95.2%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 7.0% and false negatives 3.8%. For the microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 65.4%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 75.6% and negative predictive value 64.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 34.6%. Combining urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 98.1%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 82.3% and negative predictive value 97.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 1.9%. However, the cost per utility of the combined method was higher than either urine microscopic examination or urine Gram stain alone. Urine Gram stain provided the lowest cost per utility. Economically, urine Gram stain is the proper screening tool for presumptive diagnosis of UTI.

Predictors of competitive achievement among pubescent synchronized swimmers: an analysis of the solo-figure competition.

PubMed

Peric, M; Cavar, M; Zenic, N; Sekulic, D; Sajber, D

2014-02-01

This study examined the applicability of sport-specific fitness tests (SSTs), anthropometrics, and respiratory parameters in predicting competitive results among pubescent synchronized swimmers. A total of 25 synchronized swimmers (16-17 years; 166.2 ± 5.4 cm; and 58.4 ± 4.3 kg) volunteered for this study. The independent variables were body mass, body height, Body Mass Index (BMI), body fat percentage (BF%), lean body mass percentage, respiratory variables, and four SSTs (two specific power tests plus one aerobic- and one anaerobic-endurance test). The dependent variable was competitive achievement in the solo figure competition. The reliability analyses, Pearson's correlation coefficient and forward stepwise regression were calculated. The SSTs were reliable for testing fitness status among pubescent synchronized swimmers. The forward stepwise regression retained two SSTs, BF% and forced vital capacity (FVC, relative for age and stature) in a set of predictors of competitive achievement. Significant Beta coefficients are found for aerobic-endurance, SST and FVC. The sport-specific measure of aerobic endurance and FVC appropriately predicted competitive achievement with regard to the figures used in the competition when competitive results (the dependent variable) were obtained. Athletes and coaches should be aware of the probable negative influence of very low body fat levels on competitive achievement.

Typhoid fever in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria: Another look at the Widal agglutination test as a preferred option for diagnosis.

PubMed

Enabulele, Osahon; Awunor, Simeon Nyemike

2016-01-01

Single Widal agglutination test rather than blood culture, is commonly employed to diagnose typhoid fever in Nigeria. We took another look at the Widal agglutination test as a preferred option for diagnosis of typhoid fever by determining the specificity and sensitivity of Widal agglutination test in febrile adult patients. Two hundred and seventy-one blood samples from consecutive adults (>18 years) with febrile illness attending the General Practice Clinic of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital were tested using the Widal agglutination test, blood culture, and malaria parasite test on each sample to establish the diagnosis of typhoid fever. Of the 271 blood samples 124 (45.76%) were positive following a Widal agglutination test, 60 (22.10%) blood samples grew Salmonella organisms on blood culture while 55 (20.29%) blood samples showed a co-infection of typhoid fever and malaria. A sensitivity of 35%, specificity of 51%, positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 73% were observed for Widal agglutination test as a diagnostic modality for typhoid fever infection. A single Widal agglutination test is not a valid diagnostic option for typhoid fever while co-infection with malaria parasite is the preponderant microbiological finding in typhoid fever infections. The severity of malaria parasitemia is associated with positive titers on Widal test.

Typhoid fever in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria: Another look at the Widal agglutination test as a preferred option for diagnosis

PubMed Central

Enabulele, Osahon; Awunor, Simeon Nyemike

2016-01-01

Background: Single Widal agglutination test rather than blood culture, is commonly employed to diagnose typhoid fever in Nigeria. We took another look at the Widal agglutination test as a preferred option for diagnosis of typhoid fever by determining the specificity and sensitivity of Widal agglutination test in febrile adult patients. Materials and Methods: Two hundred and seventy-one blood samples from consecutive adults (>18 years) with febrile illness attending the General Practice Clinic of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital were tested using the Widal agglutination test, blood culture, and malaria parasite test on each sample to establish the diagnosis of typhoid fever. Results: Of the 271 blood samples 124 (45.76%) were positive following a Widal agglutination test, 60 (22.10%) blood samples grew Salmonella organisms on blood culture while 55 (20.29%) blood samples showed a co-infection of typhoid fever and malaria. A sensitivity of 35%, specificity of 51%, positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 73% were observed for Widal agglutination test as a diagnostic modality for typhoid fever infection. Conclusion: A single Widal agglutination test is not a valid diagnostic option for typhoid fever while co-infection with malaria parasite is the preponderant microbiological finding in typhoid fever infections. The severity of malaria parasitemia is associated with positive titers on Widal test. PMID:27397952

Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test

PubMed Central

Ring, Patrick; Neyse, Levent; David-Barett, Tamas; Schmidt, Ulrich

2016-01-01

This paper studies performance predictions in the 7-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and whether they differ by gender. After participants completed the CRT, they predicted their own (i), the other participants’ (ii), men’s (iii), and women’s (iv) number of correct answers. In keeping with existing literature, men scored higher on the CRT than women and both men and women were too optimistic about their own performance. When we compare gender-specific predictions, we observe that men think they perform significantly better than other men and do so significantly more than women. The equality between women’s predictions about their own performance and their female peers cannot be rejected. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the underpinnings of behavior in economics and in psychology by uncovering gender differences in confidence about one’s ability relative to same and opposite sex peers. PMID:27847487

Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test.

PubMed

Ring, Patrick; Neyse, Levent; David-Barett, Tamas; Schmidt, Ulrich

2016-01-01

This paper studies performance predictions in the 7-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and whether they differ by gender. After participants completed the CRT, they predicted their own (i), the other participants' (ii), men's (iii), and women's (iv) number of correct answers. In keeping with existing literature, men scored higher on the CRT than women and both men and women were too optimistic about their own performance. When we compare gender-specific predictions, we observe that men think they perform significantly better than other men and do so significantly more than women. The equality between women's predictions about their own performance and their female peers cannot be rejected. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the underpinnings of behavior in economics and in psychology by uncovering gender differences in confidence about one's ability relative to same and opposite sex peers.

Relative value of diverse brain MRI and blood-based biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, Sarah K.; Ver Steeg, Greg; Daianu, Madelaine; Mezher, Adam; Jahanshad, Neda; Nir, Talia M.; Hua, Xue; Gutman, Boris A.; Galstyan, Aram; Thompson, Paul M.

2016-03-01

Cognitive decline accompanies many debilitating illnesses, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In old age, brain tissue loss also occurs along with cognitive decline. Although blood tests are easier to perform than brain MRI, few studies compare brain scans to standard blood tests to see which kinds of information best predict future decline. In 504 older adults from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we first used linear regression to assess the relative value of different types of data to predict cognitive decline, including 196 blood panel biomarkers, 249 MRI biomarkers obtained from the FreeSurfer software, demographics, and the AD-risk gene APOE. A subset of MRI biomarkers was the strongest predictor. There was no specific blood marker that increased predictive accuracy on its own, we found that a novel unsupervised learning method, CorEx, captured weak correlations among blood markers, and the resulting clusters offered unique predictive power.

[Evaluation of a rapid diagnostic test in the diagnosis of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women in Cotonou (Bénin)].

PubMed

Ogouyèmi-Hounto, A; Agbayahoun-Chokki, F; Sissinto Savi de Tove, Y; Biokou Bankole, B; Adinsi de Souza, V; Assogba, M; Kinde-Gazard, D; Massougbodji, A

2014-05-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the ImmunoComb® Toxo IgG and ImmunoComb® Toxo IgMassays (rapid diagnostic test) in the laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women in Cotonou. We interviewed 266 pregnant women, who first answered an epidemiological questionnaire, and collected blood samples for measurement of IgG and IgM anti T. gondii antibodies with the ImmunoComb toxo assays and with the ARCHITECT CIMA method. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated to determine the performance of the rapid test. The seroprevalences of IgG against T. gondii by CIMA technique and rapid test were respectively 48.9% and 48.5%. The prevalence increased with age. Performances for IgG were: sensitivity 97%, specificity 100%, PPV 100%, NPV = 97.10%. For IgM, Sensitivity: 33.3% Specificity: 100%, PPV 100%, NPV = 99.2%. Seroprevalence obtained shows that about half of the study population is not immune against T. gondii and requires regular serological monitoring until delivery. According to these results, and given the needs of toxoplasmosis diagnosis on the field characterized by an important decrease of immunized women, this test may be recommended in the laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis in peripheral levels of the health pyramid.

The Trail Making test: a study of its ability to predict falls in the acute neurological in-patient population.

PubMed

Mateen, Bilal Akhter; Bussas, Matthias; Doogan, Catherine; Waller, Denise; Saverino, Alessia; Király, Franz J; Playford, E Diane

2018-05-01

To determine whether tests of cognitive function and patient-reported outcome measures of motor function can be used to create a machine learning-based predictive tool for falls. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary neurological and neurosurgical center. In all, 337 in-patients receiving neurosurgical, neurological, or neurorehabilitation-based care. Binary (Y/N) for falling during the in-patient episode, the Trail Making Test (a measure of attention and executive function) and the Walk-12 (a patient-reported measure of physical function). The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay ( n = 54). The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of other variables, did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001). Classical linear statistical modeling methods were then compared with more recent machine learning based strategies, for example, random forests, neural networks, support vector machines. The random forest was the best modeling strategy when utilizing just the Trail Making Test data (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001) with 68% (± 7.7) sensitivity, and 90% (± 2.3) specificity. This study identifies a simple yet powerful machine learning (Random Forest) based predictive model for an in-patient neurological population, utilizing a single neuropsychological test of cognitive function, the Trail Making test.

A Systematic Review of the Reliability and Validity of Behavioural Tests Used to Assess Behavioural Characteristics Important in Working Dogs.

PubMed

Brady, Karen; Cracknell, Nina; Zulch, Helen; Mills, Daniel Simon

2018-01-01

Working dogs are selected based on predictions from tests that they will be able to perform specific tasks in often challenging environments. However, withdrawal from service in working dogs is still a big problem, bringing into question the reliability of the selection tests used to make these predictions. A systematic review was undertaken aimed at bringing together available information on the reliability and predictive validity of the assessment of behavioural characteristics used with working dogs to establish the quality of selection tests currently available for use to predict success in working dogs. The search procedures resulted in 16 papers meeting the criteria for inclusion. A large range of behaviour tests and parameters were used in the identified papers, and so behaviour tests and their underpinning constructs were grouped on the basis of their relationship with positive core affect (willingness to work, human-directed social behaviour, object-directed play tendencies) and negative core affect (human-directed aggression, approach withdrawal tendencies, sensitivity to aversives). We then examined the papers for reports of inter-rater reliability, within-session intra-rater reliability, test-retest validity and predictive validity. The review revealed a widespread lack of information relating to the reliability and validity of measures to assess behaviour and inconsistencies in terminologies, study parameters and indices of success. There is a need to standardise the reporting of these aspects of behavioural tests in order to improve the knowledge base of what characteristics are predictive of optimal performance in working dog roles, improving selection processes and reducing working dog redundancy. We suggest the use of a framework based on explaining the direct or indirect relationship of the test with core affect.

Classification of baseline toxicants for QSAR predictions to replace fish acute toxicity studies.

PubMed

Nendza, Monika; Müller, Martin; Wenzel, Andrea

2017-03-22

Fish acute toxicity studies are required for environmental hazard and risk assessment of chemicals by national and international legislations such as REACH, the regulations of plant protection products and biocidal products, or the GHS (globally harmonised system) for classification and labelling of chemicals. Alternative methods like QSARs (quantitative structure-activity relationships) can replace many ecotoxicity tests. However, complete substitution of in vivo animal tests by in silico methods may not be realistic. For the so-called baseline toxicants, it is possible to predict the fish acute toxicity with sufficient accuracy from log K ow and, hence, valid QSARs can replace in vivo testing. In contrast, excess toxicants and chemicals not reliably classified as baseline toxicants require further in silico, in vitro or in vivo assessments. Thus, the critical task is to discriminate between baseline and excess toxicants. For fish acute toxicity, we derived a scheme based on structural alerts and physicochemical property thresholds to classify chemicals as either baseline toxicants (=predictable by QSARs) or as potential excess toxicants (=not predictable by baseline QSARs). The step-wise approach identifies baseline toxicants (true negatives) in a precautionary way to avoid false negative predictions. Therefore, a certain fraction of false positives can be tolerated, i.e. baseline toxicants without specific effects that may be tested instead of predicted. Application of the classification scheme to a new heterogeneous dataset for diverse fish species results in 40% baseline toxicants, 24% excess toxicants and 36% compounds not classified. Thus, we can conclude that replacing about half of the fish acute toxicity tests by QSAR predictions is realistic to be achieved in the short-term. The long-term goals are classification criteria also for further groups of toxicants and to replace as many in vivo fish acute toxicity tests as possible with valid QSAR predictions.

High performance of a new PCR-based urine assay for HPV-DNA detection and genotyping.

PubMed

Tanzi, Elisabetta; Bianchi, Silvia; Fasolo, Maria Michela; Frati, Elena R; Mazza, Francesca; Martinelli, Marianna; Colzani, Daniela; Beretta, Rosangela; Zappa, Alessandra; Orlando, Giovanna

2013-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has been proposed as a means of replacing or supporting conventional cervical screening (Pap test). However, both methods require the collection of cervical samples. Urine sample is easier and more acceptable to collect and could be helpful in facilitating cervical cancer screening. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of urine testing compared to conventional cervical smear testing using a PCR-based method with a new, designed specifically primer set. Paired cervical and first voided urine samples collected from 107 women infected with HIV were subjected to HPV-DNA detection and genotyping using a PCR-based assay and a restriction fragment length polymorphism method. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) were calculated using the McNemar's test for differences. Concordance between tests was assessed using the Cohen's unweighted Kappa (k). HPV DNA was detected in 64.5% (95% CI: 55.1-73.1%) of both cytobrush and urine samples. High concordance rates of HPV-DNA detection (k = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.0) and of high risk-clade and low-risk genotyping in paired samples (k = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.67-0.92 and k = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.60-0.88, respectively) were observed. HPV-DNA detection in urine versus cervix testing revealed a sensitivity of 98.6% (95% CI: 93.1-99.9%) and a specificity of 97.4% (95% CI: 87.7-99.9%), with a very high NPV (97.4%; 95% CI: 87.7-99.9%). The PCR-based assay utilized in this study proved highly sensitive and specific for HPV-DNA detection and genotyping in urine samples. These data suggest that a urine-based assay would be a suitable and effective tool for epidemiological surveillance and, most of all, screening programs. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictive Accuracy of Sweep Frequency Impedance Technology in Identifying Conductive Conditions in Newborns.

PubMed

Aithal, Venkatesh; Kei, Joseph; Driscoll, Carlie; Murakoshi, Michio; Wada, Hiroshi

2018-02-01

Diagnosing conductive conditions in newborns is challenging for both audiologists and otolaryngologists. Although high-frequency tympanometry (HFT), acoustic stapedial reflex tests, and wideband absorbance measures are useful diagnostic tools, there is performance measure variability in their detection of middle ear conditions. Additional diagnostic sensitivity and specificity measures gained through new technology such as sweep frequency impedance (SFI) measures may assist in the diagnosis of middle ear dysfunction in newborns. The purpose of this study was to determine the test performance of SFI to predict the status of the outer and middle ear in newborns against commonly used reference standards. Automated auditory brainstem response (AABR), HFT (1000 Hz), transient evoked otoacoustic emission (TEOAE), distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE), and SFI tests were administered to the study sample. A total of 188 neonates (98 males and 90 females) with a mean gestational age of 39.4 weeks were included in the sample. Mean age at the time of testing was 44.4 hr. Diagnostic accuracy of SFI was assessed in terms of its ability to identify conductive conditions in neonates when compared with nine different reference standards (including four single tests [AABR, HFT, TEOAE, and DPOAE] and five test batteries [HFT + DPOAE, HFT + TEOAE, DPOAE + TEOAE, DPOAE + AABR, and TEOAE + AABR]), using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and traditional test performance measures such as sensitivity and specificity. The test performance of SFI against the test battery reference standard of HFT + DPOAE and single reference standard of HFT was high with an area under the ROC curve (AROC) of 0.87 and 0.82, respectively. Although the HFT + DPOAE test battery reference standard performed better than the HFT reference standard in predicting middle ear conductive conditions in neonates, the difference in AROC was not significant. Further analysis revealed that the highest sensitivity and specificity for SFI (86% and 88%, respectively) was obtained when compared with the reference standard of HFT + DPOAE. Among the four single reference standards, SFI had the highest sensitivity and specificity (76% and 88%, respectively) when compared against the HFT reference standard. The high test performance of SFI against the HFT and HFT + DPOAE reference standards indicates that the SFI measure has appropriate diagnostic accuracy in detection of conductive conditions in newborns. Hence, the SFI test could be used as adjunct tool to identify conductive conditions in universal newborn hearing screening programs, and can also be used in diagnostic follow-up assessments. American Academy of Audiology

Evaluating Prospective Teachers: Testing the Predictive Validity of the edTPA. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2016-2.2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Cowan, James; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We use longitudinal data from Washington State to provide estimates of the extent to which performance on the edTPA, a performance-based, subject-specific assessment of teacher candidates, is predictive of the likelihood of employment in the teacher workforce and value-added measures of teacher effectiveness. While edTPA scores are highly…

Evaluating Prospective Teachers: Testing the Predictive Validity of the edTPA. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2016-7

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Cowan, James; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We use longitudinal data from Washington State to provide estimates of the extent to which performance on the edTPA, a performance-based, subject-specific assessment of teacher candidates, is predictive of the likelihood of employment in the teacher workforce and value-added measures of teacher effectiveness. While edTPA scores are highly…

Progressive and Regressive Developmental Changes in Neural Substrates for Face Processing: Testing Specific Predictions of the Interactive Specialization Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joseph, Jane E.; Gathers, Ann D.; Bhatt, Ramesh S.

2011-01-01

Face processing undergoes a fairly protracted developmental time course but the neural underpinnings are not well understood. Prior fMRI studies have only examined progressive changes (i.e. increases in specialization in certain regions with age), which would be predicted by both the Interactive Specialization (IS) and maturational theories of…

Family predictors of disease management over one year in Latino and European American patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Chesla, Catherine A; Fisher, Lawrence; Skaff, Marilyn M; Mullan, Joseph T; Gilliss, Catherine L; Kanter, Richard

2003-01-01

Family context is thought to influence chronic disease management but few studies have longitudinally examined these relationships. Research on families and chronic illness has focused almost exclusively on European American families. In this prospective study we tested a multidimensional model of family influence on disease management in type 2 diabetes in a bi-ethnic sample of European Americans and Latinos. Specifically, we tested how baseline family characteristics (structure, world view, and emotion management) predicted change in disease management over one year in 104 European American and 57 Latino patients with type 2 diabetes. We found that emotion management predicted change in disease management in both groups of patients as hypothesized, while family world view predicted change in both ethnic groups but in the predicted direction only for European Americans. Examining family context within ethnic groups is required to elucidate unique cultural patterns. Attending to culturally unique interpretations of constructs and measures is warranted. The import of family emotion management, specifically conflict resolution, in disease management deserves further study to support clinical intervention development. Examining multiple domains of family life and multidimensional health outcomes strengthens our capacity to develop theory about family contexts and individual health.

Predicting preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey.

PubMed

Wang, P; Fu, A Z; Wee, H L; Lee, J; Tai, E S; Thumboo, J; Luo, N

2013-09-01

To develop and test functions for predicting the preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey. This study was a secondary analysis of data collected in a population health survey in which respondents (n = 7,529) completed both the SF-36 and the SF-8 questionnaires. We examined seven ordinary least-square estimators for their performance in predicting SF-6D scores from the SF-8 at both the individual and the group levels. In general, all functions performed similarly well in predicting SF-6D scores, and the predictions at the group level were better than predictions at the individual level. At the individual level, 42.5-51.5% of prediction errors were smaller than the minimally important difference (MID) of the SF-6D scores, depending on the function specifications, while almost all prediction errors of the tested functions were smaller than the MID of SF-6D at the group level. At both individual and group levels, the tested functions predicted lower than actual scores at the higher end of the SF-6D scale. Our study developed functions to generate preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey, the first of its kind. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance and validity of the prediction functions.

Predictive parameters for return to pre-injury level of sport 6 months following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction surgery.

PubMed

Müller, Ulrike; Krüger-Franke, Michael; Schmidt, Michael; Rosemeyer, Bernd

2015-12-01

The aim of the study was to find predictive parameters for a successful resumption of pre-injury level of sport 6 months post anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. In a prospective study, 40 patients with a ruptured ACL were surgically treated with semitendinosus tendon autograft. Six months after surgery, strength of knee extensors and flexors, four single-leg hop tests, Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Return to Sport after Injury Scale (ACL-RSI), subjective International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) 2000 and the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia-11 (TSK-11) were assessed. Seven months post-operatively, a standardized interview was conducted to identify "return to sport" (RS) and "non-return to sport" (nRS) patients. Logistic regression and "Receiver Operating Characteristic" (ROC) analyses were used to determine predictive parameters. No significant differences could be detected between RS and nRS patients concerning socio-demographic data, muscle tests, square hop and TSK-11. In nRS patients, the Limb Symmetry Index (LSI) of single hop for distance (p = 0.005), crossover hop (p = 0.008) and triple hop (p = 0.001) were significantly lower, in addition to the ACL-RSI (p = 0.013) and IKDC 2000 (p = 0.037). The cut-off points for LSI single hop for distance were 75.4 % (sensitivity 0.74; specificity 0.88), and for ACL-RSI 51.3 points (sensitivity 0.97; specificity 0.63). Logistic regression distinguished between RS and nRS subjects (sensitivity 0.97; specificity 0.63). The single hop for distance and ACL-RSI were found to be the strongest predictive parameters, assessing both the objective functional and the subjective psychological aspects of returning to sport. Both tests may help to identify patients at risk of not returning to pre-injury sport. II.

"Stops walking when talking" as a predictor of falls in people with stroke living in the community

PubMed Central

Hyndman, D; Ashburn, A

2004-01-01

Objective: To test "Stops walking when talking" (SWWT) as a predictor of falls among people with stroke living in the community. Methods: People with stroke were identified through hospital records. Mobility, ADL (activites of daily living) ability, mental state, mood, and SWWT were assessed in a single session. Participants were followed prospectively for six months, using falls diaries and regular telephone calls. Results: Sixty three participants (36 men, 27 women; mean (SD) age 68.4 (10.6)) were recruited. Four subjects had a brainstem lesion, 30 had right hemisphere, and 29 left hemisphere infarctions. Mean time since onset of stroke was 20 months (range 2–72). Twenty six subjects stopped walking when a conversation was started and 16 of them fell during the six month follow up period (11 experienced repeated falls). For all fallers (⩾1) the positive predictive value of SWWT was 62% (16/26), the negative predictive value 62% (23/37), specificity 70% (23/33) and sensitivity 53% (16/30). For repeat fallers (⩾2) the positive predictive value of SWWT was 42% (11/26), the negative predictive value 89% (33/37), specificity 69% (33/48) and sensitivity 73% (11/15). Those who stopped walking were significantly more disabled (p<0.001)—that is, they were more dependent in activities of daily living, had worse gross function as well as worse upper and lower limb function, and had depression (p = 0.012). Conclusions: The specificity of the SWWT test was lower but sensitivity was higher than previously reported. Although the SWWT test was easy to use, its clinical usefulness as a single indicator of fall risk in identifying those community dwelling people with stroke most at risk of falls and in need of therapeutic intervention is questionable. PMID:15201358

Strip test for bedside detection of interleukin-6 in cervical secretions is predictive for impending preterm delivery.

PubMed

Trébéden, H; Goffinet, F; Kayem, G; Maillard, F; Lemoine, E; Cabrol, D; Weill, B; Batteux, F

2001-01-01

Inflammatory cytokines in amniotic fluid are markers of prematurity which could characterize preterm labour of infectious origin. To avoid amniocentesis, we analyzed IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and IL-13 by RT-PCR in cervical secretions (CS) of 307 women with preterm labour. IL-6 was detected in 26.3% patients who delivered at less than 34 weeks (specificity: 95.8%). In addition, IL-6 was associated with delivery within 7 days (specificity: 91.6%). To render the detection more rapid and cheaper, a strip test was designed and evaluated comparatively with RT-PCR in 76 women. This bedside strip test was twice more sensitive than RT-PCR, with little decrease in specificity.

Functional Movement Screen for Predicting Running Injuries in 18- to 24-Year-Old Competitive Male Runners.

PubMed

Hotta, Takayuki; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Adachi, Daiki; Morino, Saori; Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nozaki, Yuma; Hirata, Hinako; Yamaguchi, Moe; Aoyama, Tomoki

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the functional movement screen (FMS) could predict running injuries in competitive runners. Eighty-four competitive male runners (average age = 20.0 ± 1.1 years) participated. Each subject performed the FMS, which consisted of 7 movement tests (each score range: 0-3, total score range: 0-21), during the preseason. The incidence of running injuries (time lost because of injury ≤ 4 weeks) was investigated through a follow-up survey during the 6-month season. Mann-Whitney U-tests were used to investigate which movement tests were significantly associated with running injuries. The receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the cutoff. The mean FMS composite score was 14.1 ± 2.3. The ROC analysis determined the cutoff at 14/15 (sensitivity = 0.73, specificity = 0.54), suggesting that the composite score had a low predictability for running injuries. However, the total scores (0-6) from the deep squat (DS) and active straight leg raise (ASLR) tests (DS and ASLR), which were significant with the U-test, had relatively high predictability at the cutoff of 3/4 (sensitivity = 0.73, specificity = 0.74). Furthermore, the multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the DS and ASLR scores of ≤3 significantly influenced the incidence of running injuries after adjusting for subjects' characteristics (odds ratio = 9.7, 95% confidence interval = 2.1-44.4). Thus, the current study identified the DS and ASLR score as a more effective method than the composite score to screen the risk of running injuries in competitive male runners.

Anti-signal recognition particle autoantibody ELISA validation and clinical associations.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Rohit; Oddis, Chester V; Goudeau, Danielle; Fertig, Noreen; Metes, Ilinca; Stephens, Chad; Qi, Zengbiao; Koontz, Diane; Levesque, Marc C

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a quantitative anti-signal recognition particle (SRP) autoantibody serum ELISA in patients with myositis and longitudinal association with myositis disease activity. We developed a serum ELISA using recombinant purified full-length human SRP coated on ELISA plates and a secondary antibody that bound human IgG to detect anti-SRP binding. Protein immunoprecipitation was used as the gold standard for the presence of anti-SRP. Serum samples from three groups were analysed: SRP(+) myositis subjects by immunoprecipitation, SRP(-) myositis subjects by immunoprecipitation and non-myositis controls. The ELISA's sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were evaluated. Percentage agreement and test-retest reliability were assessed. Serial samples from seven SRP immunoprecipitation-positive subjects were also tested, along with serum muscle enzymes and manual muscle testing. Using immunoprecipitation, we identified 26 SRP(+) myositis patients and 77 SRP(-) controls (including 38 patients with necrotizing myopathy). Non-myositis control patients included SLE (n = 4) and SSc (n = 7) patients. Anti-SRP positivity by ELISA showed strong agreement (97.1%) with immunoprecipitation (κ = 0.94). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the anti-SRP ELISA were 88, 100, 100 and 96, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.94, and test-retest reliability was strong (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Serial samples showed that anti-SRP levels paralleled changes in muscle enzymes and manual muscle testing. We developed a quantitative ELISA for detecting serum anti-SRP autoantibodies and validated the assay in myositis. Longitudinal assessment of SRP levels by ELISA may be a useful biomarker for disease activity. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Retrospective Review of Treponema pallidum PCR and Serology Results: Are Both Tests Necessary?

PubMed

Brischetto, Anna; Gassiep, Ian; Whiley, David; Norton, Robert

2018-05-01

There has been a resurgence of syphilis diagnoses in Australia. We investigated whether our Treponema pallidum PCR test provides any additional diagnostic information over syphilis serology (chemiluminescence immunoassay [CMIA], Treponema pallidum particle agglutination [TPPA] assay, and the rapid plasma reagin [RPR] flocculation test). A retrospective audit of all T. pallidum PCR requests that came through our laboratory from January 2010 to June 2017 was conducted; data collected included age, gender, site of swab, and results from T. pallidum PCR, syphilis serology, and herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and HSV-2 PCRs. A total of 441 T. pallidum PCR tests were performed; on average, 3 T. pallidum PCRs per month were requested in 2011, and this rate increased to 17.2 requests per month in 2017. A total of 323 patients had both T. pallidum PCR and syphilis serology performed, with 67% of swabs taken from the genitals. T. pallidum PCR gave positive results for 61/323 (19%) patients; of these 61 patients, 59 (97%) also had positive syphilis serology results ( T. pallidum PCR sensitivity, 68%; specificity, 99%; positive predictive value, 97%; negative predictive value, 89%). Syphilis serology was positive for 91/323 patients (28%); of these 91 patients, 61 (66%) were also T. pallidum PCR positive (syphilis serology sensitivity, 97%; specificity, 88%; positive predictive value, 60%; negative predictive value, 99%). The Cohen's kappa value was 0.74, indicating substantial agreement between the two tests. Our results show that most patients with positive T. pallidum PCR results also had positive syphilis serology. Therefore, T. pallidum PCR adds little clinical value over serology for the diagnosis of syphilis in certain clinical settings. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Combining skin prick, immediate skin application and specific-IgE testing in the diagnosis of peanut allergy in children.

PubMed

Wainstein, Brynn Kevin; Yee, Anthony; Jelley, Donna; Ziegler, Mary; Ziegler, John B

2007-05-01

Previous studies have suggested various diagnostic cut-offs of allergy tests for the diagnosis of clinical peanut allergy in children. There are few data relating to the use of combinations of these tests in children. We aimed to determine the validity of previously reported diagnostic cut-off levels of peanut allergen skin tests and peanut specific-immunoglobulin (Ig) E, as well as the usefulness of combinations of these, for predicting clinical peanut allergy in our Allergy Clinic. Children attending the Allergy Clinic with a positive peanut skin prick test (SPT; n = 84) were included in the study. Immediate skin application food tests (I-SAFT) using 1 g of peanut butter (positive if any wheals were detected at 15 min), peanut specific-IgE levels and open-label peanut food challenges were performed. Fifty-two of 85 peanut challenges were positive. Skin prick test specificity was 67% at >or=8 mm and 100% at >or=15 mm. The I-SAFT was 82% specific. A peanut specific-IgE level of 0.37 kU/l was 98% sensitive but 33% specific. A level of 10 kU/l was 100% specific. Combinations of a SPT of >or=8 mm with a positive I-SAFT and a peanut specific-IgE >or=0.37 kU/l were 88% specific with a sensitivity of 38%. Using challenge outcomes as the standard, available in vitro and in vivo diagnostic tests for peanut allergy have poor sensitivity and specificity and combining them does not significantly improve their clinical usefulness. Previously described diagnostic cut-off levels do not have general applicability. Allergy practitioners may need to interpret results of allergy tests in the context of their own practices.

Falls Risk Prediction for Older Inpatients in Acute Care Medical Wards: Is There an Interest to Combine an Early Nurse Assessment and the Artificial Neural Network Analysis?

PubMed

Beauchet, O; Noublanche, F; Simon, R; Sekhon, H; Chabot, J; Levinoff, E J; Kabeshova, A; Launay, C P

2018-01-01

Identification of the risk of falls is important among older inpatients. This study aims to examine performance criteria (i.e.; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy) for fall prediction resulting from a nurse assessment and an artificial neural networks (ANNs) analysis in older inpatients hospitalized in acute care medical wards. A total of 848 older inpatients (mean age, 83.0±7.2 years; 41.8% female) admitted to acute care medical wards in Angers University hospital (France) were included in this study using an observational prospective cohort design. Within 24 hours after admission of older inpatients, nurses performed a bedside clinical assessment. Participants were separated into non-fallers and fallers (i.e.; ≥1 fall during hospitalization stay). The analysis was conducted using three feed forward ANNs (multilayer perceptron [MLP], averaged neural network, and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]). Seventy-three (8.6%) participants fell at least once during their hospital stay. ANNs showed a high specificity, regardless of which ANN was used, and the highest value reported was with MLP (99.8%). In contrast, sensitivity was lower, with values ranging between 98.4 to 14.8%. MLP had the highest accuracy (99.7). Performance criteria for fall prediction resulting from a bedside nursing assessment and an ANNs analysis was associated with a high specificity but a low sensitivity, suggesting that this combined approach should be used more as a diagnostic test than a screening test when considering older inpatients in acute care medical ward.

Evaluation of a fecal immunochemistry test prior to colonoscopy for outpatients with various indications.

PubMed

Szilagyi, Andrew; Xue, Xiaoqing

2017-01-01

Stool tests can predict advanced neoplasms prior to colonoscopy. Results of immunochemical stool tests to predict findings at colonoscopy for various indications are less often reported. We compared pre-colonoscopy stool tests with findings in patients undergoing colonoscopy for different indications. Charts of patients undergoing elective or semi-urgent colonoscopy were reviewed. Comparison of adenoma detection rates and pathological findings was made between prescreened and non-prescreened, and between stool-positive and stool-negative cases. Demographics, quality of colonoscopy, and pathological findings were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. Statistical significance was accepted at p ≤0.05. Charts of 325 patients were reviewed. Among them, stool tests were done on 144 patients: 114 were negative and 30 were positive. Findings were similar in the pretest and non-pretest groups. Detection of advanced adenomas per patient was higher in the stool-positive group compared to the stool-negative group (23.4% vs 3.5%, p =0.0016, OR =7.6 [95% CI: 2-29.3]). Five advanced adenomas (without high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma) and several cases of multiple adenomas were missed in the negative group. Sensitivity and specificity for advanced polyps was 63.6% and 82.7%, respectively. The negative predictive value was 96.5%. Male gender was independently predictive of any adenoma. The stool immunochemical test best predicted advanced neoplasms and had a high negative predictive value in this small cohort. Whether this test can be applied to determine the need for colonoscopy in groups other than average risk would require more studies.

Distribution of indoor radon concentrations in Pennsylvania, 1990-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, Eliza L.

2013-01-01

Median indoor radon concentrations aggregated according to geologic units and hydrogeologic settings are useful for drawing general conclusions about the occurrence of indoor radon in specific geologic units and hydrogeologic settings, but the associated data and maps have limitations. The aggregated indoor radon data have testing and spatial accuracy limitations due to lack of available information regarding testing conditions and the imprecision of geocoded test locations. In addition, the associated data describing geologic units and hydrogeologic settings have spatial and interpretation accuracy limitations, which are a result of using statewide data to define conditions at test locations and geologic data that represent a broad interpretation of geologic units across the State. As a result, indoor air radon concentration distributions are not proposed for use in predicting individual concentrations at specific sites nor for use as a decision-making tool for property owners to decide whether to test for indoor radon concentrations at specific property locations.

Performance of p16INK4a ELISA as a primary cervical cancer screening test among a large cohort of HIV-infected women in western Kenya: a 2-year cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Wu, Tara J; Smith-McCune, Karen; Reuschenbach, Miriam; von Knebel Doeberitz, Magnus; Maloba, May; Huchko, Megan J

2016-09-13

A biomarker with increased specificity for cervical dysplasia compared with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing would be an attractive option for cervical cancer screening among HIV-infected women in resource-limited settings. p16(INK4a) has been explored as a biomarker for screening in general populations. A 2-year cross-sectional study. 2 large HIV primary care clinics in western Kenya. 1054 HIV-infected women in western Kenya undergoing cervical cancer screening as part of routine HIV care from October 2010 to November 2012. Participants underwent p16(INK4a) specimen collection and colposcopy. Lesions with unsatisfactory colposcopy or suspicious for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ (CIN2+; including CIN2/3 or invasive cervical cancer) were biopsied. Following biopsy, disease status was determined by histopathological diagnosis. We measured the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of p16(INK4a) ELISA for CIN2+ detection among HIV-infected women and compared them to the test characteristics of current screening methods used in general as well as HIV-infected populations. Average p16(INK4a) concentration in cervical samples was 37.4 U/mL. After colposcopically directed biopsy, 127 (12%) women were determined to have CIN2+. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.664 for p16(INK4a) to detect biopsy-proven CIN2+. At a p16(INK4a) cut-off level of 9 U/mL, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were 89.0%, 22.9%, 13.6% and 93.8%, respectively. The overall p16(INK4a) positivity at a cut-off level of 9 U/mL was 828 (78.6%) women. There were 325 (30.8%) cases of correct p16(INK4a) prediction to detect or rule out CIN2+, and 729 (69.2%) cases of incorrect p16(INK4a) prediction. p16(INK4a) ELISA did not perform well as a screening test for CIN2+ detection among HIV-infected women due to low specificity. Our study contributes to the ongoing search for a more specific alternative to HPV testing for CIN2+ detection. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Performance of p16INK4a ELISA as a primary cervical cancer screening test among a large cohort of HIV-infected women in western Kenya: a 2-year cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Wu, Tara J; Smith-McCune, Karen; Reuschenbach, Miriam; von Knebel Doeberitz, Magnus; Maloba, May; Huchko, Megan J

2016-01-01

Objective A biomarker with increased specificity for cervical dysplasia compared with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing would be an attractive option for cervical cancer screening among HIV-infected women in resource-limited settings. p16INK4a has been explored as a biomarker for screening in general populations. Design A 2-year cross-sectional study. Setting 2 large HIV primary care clinics in western Kenya. Participants 1054 HIV-infected women in western Kenya undergoing cervical cancer screening as part of routine HIV care from October 2010 to November 2012. Interventions Participants underwent p16INK4a specimen collection and colposcopy. Lesions with unsatisfactory colposcopy or suspicious for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ (CIN2+; including CIN2/3 or invasive cervical cancer) were biopsied. Following biopsy, disease status was determined by histopathological diagnosis. Primary and secondary outcome measures We measured the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of p16INK4a ELISA for CIN2+ detection among HIV-infected women and compared them to the test characteristics of current screening methods used in general as well as HIV-infected populations. Results Average p16INK4a concentration in cervical samples was 37.4 U/mL. After colposcopically directed biopsy, 127 (12%) women were determined to have CIN2+. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.664 for p16INK4a to detect biopsy-proven CIN2+. At a p16INK4a cut-off level of 9 U/mL, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were 89.0%, 22.9%, 13.6% and 93.8%, respectively. The overall p16INK4a positivity at a cut-off level of 9 U/mL was 828 (78.6%) women. There were 325 (30.8%) cases of correct p16INK4a prediction to detect or rule out CIN2+, and 729 (69.2%) cases of incorrect p16INK4a prediction. Conclusions p16INK4a ELISA did not perform well as a screening test for CIN2+ detection among HIV-infected women due to low specificity. Our study contributes to the ongoing search for a more specific alternative to HPV testing for CIN2+ detection. PMID:27625065

The sensitivity and the specifity of rapid antigen test in streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

Gurol, Yesim; Akan, Hulya; Izbirak, Guldal; Tekkanat, Zuhal Tazegun; Gunduz, Tehlile Silem; Hayran, Osman; Yilmaz, Gulden

2010-06-01

It is aimed to detect the sensitivity and specificity of rapid antigen detection of group A beta hemolytic streptococci from throat specimen compared with throat culture. The other goal of the study is to help in giving clinical decisions in upper respiratory tract infections according to the age group, by detection of sensitivity and positive predictive values of the rapid tests and throat cultures. Rapid antigen detection and throat culture results for group A beta hemolytic streptococci from outpatients attending to our university hospital between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008 were evaluated retrospectively. Throat samples were obtained by swabs from the throat and transported in the Stuart medium and Quickvue Strep A [Quidel, San Diego, USA] cassette test was applied and for culture, specimen was inoculated on 5% blood sheep agar and identified according to bacitracin and trimethoprim-sulphametaxazole susceptibility from beta hemolytic colonies. During the dates between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008, from 453 patients both rapid antigen detection and throat culture were evaluated. Rapid antigen detection sensitivity and specificity were found to be 64.6% and 96.79%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 80.95% whereas negative predictive value was 92.82%. Kappa index was 0.91. When the results were evaluated according to the age groups, the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of rapid antigen detection in children were 70%, 90.3% and in adults 59.4%, 70.4%. When bacterial infection is concerned to prevent unnecessary antibiotic use, rapid streptococcal antigen test (RSAT) is a reliable method to begin immediate treatment. To get the maximum sensitivity of RSAT, the specimen collection technique used and education of the health care workers is important. While giving clinical decision, it must be taken into consideration that the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the RSAT is quite lower in adult age group than in pediatric age group. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 11: Test characteristics.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-07-01

The calculation of various test characteristics may be required as part of a data analysis exercise. This paper explains how to set up these calculations in Microsoft Excel in order to obtain sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic accuracy and prevalence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing Paramedic Students' Resiliency to Stress: Assessing Correlates and the Impact of Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Shirley; Johnson, Andrew

2008-01-01

This pilot study focused on paramedic students in the final year of their college program. Using a randomised controlled pre-test/post-test design, this study sought to determine whether perceived peer support, negative attitude towards emotional expression, and specific coping processes, would be significantly predictive of levels of…

Evaluation of Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur Chlamydia Microplate EIA shortened assay and comparison with cell culture and Syva Chlamydia MicroTrak II EIA in high- and low-risk populations.

PubMed

Chan, E L; Brandt, K; Horsman, G

1995-11-01

Seven hundred thirty-two female urogenital samples were collected for Chlamydia trachomatis testing by both the Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur (Chaska, Minn.) Chlamydia Microplate EIA by the shortened protocol and the Syva (San Jose, Calif.) MicroTrak II EIA, and the results were compared with those obtained by cell culture. For the analysis of samples from female patients, the patients were divided into high- and low-risk categories. An additional 121 male urethral samples were collected and tested by the Sanofi Microplate EIA and cell culture; for the analysis of samples from male patients, the patients were divided into asymptomatic and symptomatic categories. All specimens positive by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were confirmed by a blocking assay following the respective manufacturer's instructions. Specimens negative by EIA that fell within a gray zone 30% below the cutoff and negative cultures with one or more corresponding positive EIA results were tested further by cytocentrifugation and direct immunofluorescent assay. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for Syva versus culture were 94, 98.8, 85.5 and 99.6%, respectively. After resolution, the results were 94.5, 99.6, 94.5, and 99.6%, respectively. The parallel results for the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture were 94.0, 98.7, and 83.9, and 99.6%, respectively, and after being resolved, the results were 94.9, 100, 100, and 99.6%, respectively. In the small male population tested, the resolved results of the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100, 100, 100, and 100%, respectively. The present study demonstrated that the Sanofi Microplate EIA shortened protocol is highly sensitive and specific in comparison with cell culture and the Syva MicroTrak II EIA.

CF6 jet engine performance improvement program. Short core exhaust nozzle performance improvement concept. [specific fuel consumption reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasching, W. A.

1979-01-01

The short core exhaust nozzle was evaluated in CF6-50 engine ground tests including performance, acoustic, and endurance tests. The test results verified the performance predictions from scale model tests. The short core exhaust nozzle provides an internal cruise sfc reduction of 0.9 percent without an increase in engine noise. The nozzle hardware successfully completed 1000 flight cycles of endurance testing without any signs of distress.

Serological Diagnosis of Acute Scrub Typhus in Southern India: Evaluation of InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test and Comparison with other Serological Tests.

PubMed

Anitharaj, Velmurugan; Stephen, Selvaraj; Pradeep, Jothimani; Park, Sungman; Kim, Seung-Han; Kim, Young Jin; Kim, Eun-Ye; Kim, Yoon-Won

2016-11-01

Scrub Typhus (ST) is being reported from different parts of India in the recent past. However, the diagnosis and confirmation of ST cases require specific serological and molecular diagnostic tests. Both rapid and conventional ELISA tests need to be properly evaluated. Evaluation of a new ST IgM Immunochromatography (ICT) test kit (InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test) and compare it with another rapid kit, conventional ELISA kit and Weil-Felix (WF) test. This prospective study was carried out in Mahatma Gandhi Medical College and Research Institute, Puducherry, during November 2015 to June 2016. Clinically suspected 220 ST patients were examined by a new kit, InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test, taking the conventional InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM ELISA as reference. Additional comparison was made with ImmuneMed Scrub Typhus Rapid, and WF test (single OXK titers ≥1:320). Statistical analysis was performed (Chi-square, Spearman's correlation and Kappa) using IBM SPSS Statistics 17 for Windows (SPSS Inc; Chicago, USA). Percentage Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive and Negative Predictive Values for InBios, ImmuneMed and WF were 99.25, 93.02, 95.68, 98.77; 94.87, 94.19, 96.21, 92.05 and 50.38, 95.51, 94.29, 56.67 respectively. A total of 134 patients were positive in reference standard InBios IgM ELISA. This new rapid ST IgM kit validated for the first time in India, showed good sensitivity and specificity. As a Point-of-Care (PoC) test, the kit would be helpful in both urban and remote rural parts of India.

Serological Diagnosis of Acute Scrub Typhus in Southern India: Evaluation of InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test and Comparison with other Serological Tests

PubMed Central

Anitharaj, Velmurugan; Pradeep, Jothimani; Park, Sungman; Kim, Seung-Han; Kim, Young Jin; Kim, Eun-Ye; Kim, Yoon-Won

2016-01-01

Introduction Scrub Typhus (ST) is being reported from different parts of India in the recent past. However, the diagnosis and confirmation of ST cases require specific serological and molecular diagnostic tests. Both rapid and conventional ELISA tests need to be properly evaluated. Aim Evaluation of a new ST IgM Immunochromatography (ICT) test kit (InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test) and compare it with another rapid kit, conventional ELISA kit and Weil-Felix (WF) test. Materials and Methods This prospective study was carried out in Mahatma Gandhi Medical College and Research Institute, Puducherry, during November 2015 to June 2016. Clinically suspected 220 ST patients were examined by a new kit, InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM Rapid Test, taking the conventional InBios Scrub Typhus Detect IgM ELISA as reference. Additional comparison was made with ImmuneMed Scrub Typhus Rapid, and WF test (single OXK titers ≥1:320). Statistical analysis was performed (Chi-square, Spearman’s correlation and Kappa) using IBM SPSS Statistics 17 for Windows (SPSS Inc; Chicago, USA). Results Percentage Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive and Negative Predictive Values for InBios, ImmuneMed and WF were 99.25, 93.02, 95.68, 98.77; 94.87, 94.19, 96.21, 92.05 and 50.38, 95.51, 94.29, 56.67 respectively. A total of 134 patients were positive in reference standard InBios IgM ELISA. Conclusion This new rapid ST IgM kit validated for the first time in India, showed good sensitivity and specificity. As a Point-of-Care (PoC) test, the kit would be helpful in both urban and remote rural parts of India. PMID:28050364

Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

PubMed

Ko, Byuk Sung; Kim, Won Young; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Ahn, Shin; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Jung, Hwoon-Yong

2015-11-01

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Retrospective, observational, single-center study. Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period. Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) within 24 hours after emergency department admission. None. Of the 1,003 patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (p<0.001). Lactate elevation (≥2.5 mmol/L) was associated with 90% specificity and an 84% negative predictive value for hypotension development. When the lactate levels were greater than 5.0 mmol/L, the specificity and negative predictive value increased to 98% and 87%, respectively. Point-of-care testing of lactate can predict in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.

Determination of IgE antibodies to the benzylpenicilloyl determinant: a comparison of the sensitivity and specificity of three radio allergo sorbent test methods.

PubMed

Garcia, J J; Blanca, M; Moreno, F; Vega, J M; Mayorga, C; Fernandez, J; Juarez, C; Romano, A; de Ramon, E

1997-01-01

The quantitation of in vitro IgE antibodies to the benzylpenicilloyl determinant (BPO) is a useful tool for evaluating suspected penicillin allergic subjects. Although many different methods have been employed, few studies have compared their diagnostic specificity and sensitivity. In this study, the sensitivity and specificity of three different radio allergo sorbent test (RAST) methods for quantitating specific IgE antibodies to the BPO determinant were compared. Thirty positive control sera (serum samples from penicillin allergic subjects with a positive clinical history and a positive penicillin skin test) and 30 negative control sera (sera from subjects with no history of penicillin allergy and negative skin tests) were tested for BPO-specific IgE antibodies by RAST using three different conjugates coupled to the solid phase: benzylpenicillin conjugated to polylysine (BPO-PLL), benzylpenicillin conjugated to human serum albumin (BPO-HSA), and benzylpenicillin conjugated to an aminospacer (BPO-SP). Receiver operator control curves (ROC analysis) were carried out by determining different cut-off points between positive and negative values. Contingence tables were constructed and sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values (PV-), and positive predictive values (PV+) were calculated. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were determined and the differences between methods were compared by chi 2 analysis. Analysis of the areas defined by the ROC curves showed statistical differences among the three methods. When cut-off points for optimal sensitivity and specificity were chosen, the BPO-HSA assay was less sensitive and less specific and had a lower PV- and PV+ than the BPO-PLL and BPO-SP assays. Assessment of r and ICC indicated that the correlation was very high, but the concordance between the PLL and SP methods was higher than between the PLL and HSA or SP and HSA methods. We conclude that for quantitating IgE antibodies by RAST to the BPO determinant, BPO-SP or BPO-PLL conjugates offer advantages in sensitivity and specificity compared with BPO-HSA. These results support and extend previous in vitro studies by our group and highlight the importance of the carrier for RAST assays.

Use of extant kinetic parameters to predict effluent concentrations of specific organic compounds at full-scale facilities.

PubMed

Ellis, Timothy G; Eliosov, Boris

2004-01-01

To use the results of kinetic tests to predict effluent concentrations of specific contaminants in activated sludge systems, the fraction of the biomass that has an ability to degrade the test compound (i.e., competent biomass) must be estimated. A calibration procedure was developed to assess the competent biomass concentration because the chemical oxygen demand (COD) fraction tended to underestimate the degrading fraction for three of the four test compounds. Acetone, for instance, had a measured influent COD fraction of 0.08%, and the actual competent fraction was estimated to be 2.3%, based on the model calibration. Once the competent biomass fraction in the mixed liquor was determined, the extant kinetic parameters were subsequently used to predict activated sludge system performance. Predicted effluent concentrations were within 2, 5, and 16% of the average measured concentrations for acetone, linear alkylbenzene sulfonate, and furfural, respectively. Day-to-day predictions for these compounds were less accurate, possibly because of the non-steady-state nature of the activated sludge systems studied. The difference between the fraction of the influent COD contributed by the target compounds and the competent biomass fraction in the mixed liquor was found to be more significant when the target compound contributed less than 1% of the influent organic matter. The chemical structure of the target compound and chemical composition of the influent likely had an effect on the resulting competent biomass concentration. The total maximum growth rate, microX, was observed to be independent of the influent concentration of acetone and furfural, thus suggesting that the competent biomass concentration for these compounds was not affected by the changes in their influent concentrations. Consequently, a majority of competent biomass growth resulted from the degradation of other substrates, resulting in a competent biomass concentration significantly higher than predicted based on the influent COD fraction contributed by the test compound.

Fecal immunochemical test for predicting mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dai, Cong; Jiang, Min; Sun, Ming-Jun; Cao, Qin

2018-05-01

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a promising marker for assessment of inflammatory bowel disease activity. However, the utility of FIT for predicting mucosal healing (MH) of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has yet to be clearly demonstrated. The objective of our study was to perform a diagnostic test accuracy test meta-analysis evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of FIT in predicting MH of UC patients. We systematically searched the databases from inception to November 2017 that evaluated MH in UC. The methodological quality of each study was assessed according to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist. The extracted data were pooled using a summary receiver operating characteristic curve model. Random-effects model was used to summarize the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Six studies comprising 625 UC patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity values for predicting MH in UC were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.81) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85), respectively. The FIT level had a high rule-in value (positive likelihood ratio, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.85-5.03) and a moderate rule-out value (negative likelihood ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43) for predicting MH in UC. The results of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve, 0.88; standard error of the mean, 0.02) and diagnostic odds ratio (18.08; 95% CI, 9.57-34.13) also revealed improved discrimination for identifying MH in UC with FIT concentration. Our meta-analysis has found that FIT is a simple, reliable non-invasive marker for predicting MH in UC patients. © 2018 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Quantitative Sensory Testing Predicts Pregabalin Efficacy in Painful Chronic Pancreatitis

PubMed Central

Olesen, Søren S.; Graversen, Carina; Bouwense, Stefan A. W.; van Goor, Harry; Wilder-Smith, Oliver H. G.; Drewes, Asbjørn M.

2013-01-01

Background A major problem in pain medicine is the lack of knowledge about which treatment suits a specific patient. We tested the ability of quantitative sensory testing to predict the analgesic effect of pregabalin and placebo in patients with chronic pancreatitis. Methods Sixty-four patients with painful chronic pancreatitis received pregabalin (150–300 mg BID) or matching placebo for three consecutive weeks. Analgesic effect was documented in a pain diary based on a visual analogue scale. Responders were defined as patients with a reduction in clinical pain score of 30% or more after three weeks of study treatment compared to baseline recordings. Prior to study medication, pain thresholds to electric skin and pressure stimulation were measured in dermatomes T10 (pancreatic area) and C5 (control area). To eliminate inter-subject differences in absolute pain thresholds an index of sensitivity between stimulation areas was determined (ratio of pain detection thresholds in pancreatic versus control area, ePDT ratio). Pain modulation was recorded by a conditioned pain modulation paradigm. A support vector machine was used to screen sensory parameters for their predictive power of pregabalin efficacy. Results The pregabalin responders group was hypersensitive to electric tetanic stimulation of the pancreatic area (ePDT ratio 1.2 (0.9–1.3)) compared to non-responders group (ePDT ratio: 1.6 (1.5–2.0)) (P = 0.001). The electrical pain detection ratio was predictive for pregabalin effect with a classification accuracy of 83.9% (P = 0.007). The corresponding sensitivity was 87.5% and specificity was 80.0%. No other parameters were predictive of pregabalin or placebo efficacy. Conclusions The present study provides first evidence that quantitative sensory testing predicts the analgesic effect of pregabalin in patients with painful chronic pancreatitis. The method can be used to tailor pain medication based on patient’s individual sensory profile and thus comprises a significant step towards personalized pain medicine. PMID:23469256

Implementation and Test of the Automatic Flight Dynamics Operations for Geostationary Satellite Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sangwook; Lee, Young-Ran; Hwang, Yoola; Javier Santiago Noguero Galilea

2009-12-01

This paper describes the Flight Dynamics Automation (FDA) system for COMS Flight Dynamics System (FDS) and its test result in terms of the performance of the automation jobs. FDA controls the flight dynamics functions such as orbit determination, orbit prediction, event prediction, and fuel accounting. The designed FDA is independent from the specific characteristics which are defined by spacecraft manufacturer or specific satellite missions. Therefore, FDA could easily links its autonomous job control functions to any satellite mission control system with some interface modification. By adding autonomous system along with flight dynamics system, it decreases the operator’s tedious and repeated jobs but increase the usability and reliability of the system. Therefore, FDA is used to improve the completeness of whole mission control system’s quality. The FDA is applied to the real flight dynamics system of a geostationary satellite, COMS and the experimental test is performed. The experimental result shows the stability and reliability of the mission control operations through the automatic job control.

Thermal Vacuum Test Correlation of a Zero Propellant Load Case Thermal Capacitance Propellant Gauging Analytical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckim, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

This thesis describes the development and correlation of a thermal model that forms the foundation of a thermal capacitance spacecraft propellant load estimator. Specific details of creating the thermal model for the diaphragm propellant tank used on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft using ANSYS and the correlation process implemented are presented. The thermal model was correlated to within plus or minus 3 degrees Celsius of the thermal vacuum test data, and was determined sufficient to make future propellant predictions on MMS. The model was also found to be relatively sensitive to uncertainties in applied heat flux and mass knowledge of the tank. More work is needed to improve temperature predictions in the upper hemisphere of the propellant tank where predictions were found to be 2 to 2.5 C lower than the test data. A road map for applying the model to predict propellant loads on the actual MMS spacecraft toward its end of life in 2017-2018 is also presented.

Diagnostic performance of influenza viruses and RSV rapid antigen detection tests in children in tertiary care.

PubMed

Moesker, F M; van Kampen, J J A; Aron, G; Schutten, M; van de Vijver, D A M C; Koopmans, M P G; Osterhaus, A D M E; Fraaij, P L A

2016-06-01

Rapid antigen detection tests (RADTs) are increasingly used to detect influenza viruses and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). However, their sensitivity and specificity are a matter of debate, challenging their clinical usefulness. Comparing diagnostic performances of BinaxNow Influenza AB(®) (BNI) and BinaxNow RSV(®) (BNR), to those of real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR), virus isolation and direct immunofluorescence (D-IF) in paediatric patients. Between November 2005 and September 2013, 521 nasal washings from symptomatic children (age <5 years) attending our tertiary care centre were tested, with a combination of the respective assays using RT-PCR as gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of BNI were 69% (confidence interval [CI] [51-83]), 96% [94-97], 55% [39-70] and 98% [96-99] respectively. Of eleven false-negative samples, RT-PCR Ct-values were higher than all RT-PCR positive test results (27 vs 22, p=0.012). Of twenty false-positive samples, none were culture positive and two tested positive in D-IF. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for BNR were 79% [73-85], 98% [96-99], 97% [93-99] and 88% [84-91]. Of the 42 false-negative samples the median Ct-value was higher than that of all RT-PCR positive samples (31 vs 23, p<0.0001). Five false-positive samples were detected. Three of these tested positive for RSV in virus isolation and D-IF. RADTs have a high specificity with BNR being superior to BNI. However, their relative low sensitivity limits their usefulness for clinical decision making in a tertiary care paediatric hospital. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical flow cytometric screening of SAP and XIAP expression accurately identifies patients with SH2D1A and XIAP/BIRC4 mutations.

PubMed

Gifford, Carrie E; Weingartner, Elizabeth; Villanueva, Joyce; Johnson, Judith; Zhang, Kejian; Filipovich, Alexandra H; Bleesing, Jack J; Marsh, Rebecca A

2014-07-01

X-linked lymphoproliferative disease is caused by mutations in two genes, SH2D1A and XIAP/BIRC4. Flow cytometric methods have been developed to detect the gene products, SAP and XIAP. However, there is no literature describing the accuracy of flow cytometric screening performed in a clinical lab setting. We reviewed the clinical flow cytometric testing results for 656 SAP and 586 XIAP samples tested during a 3-year period. Genetic testing was clinically performed as directed by the managing physician in 137 SAP (21%) and 115 XIAP (20%) samples. We included these samples for analyses of flow cytometric test accuracy. SH2D1A mutations were detected in 15/137 samples. SAP expression was low in 13/15 (sensitivity 87%, CI 61-97%). Of the 122 samples with normal sequencing, SAP was normal in 109 (specificity 89%, CI 82-94%). The positive predictive values (PPVs) and the negative predictive values (NPVs) were 50% and 98%, respectively. XIAP/BIRC4 mutations were detected in 19/115 samples. XIAP expression was low in 18/19 (sensitivity 95%, CI 73-100%). Of the 96 samples with normal sequencing, 59 had normal XIAP expression (specificity 61%, CI 51-71%). The PPVs and NPVs were 33% and 98%, respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was able to improve the specificity to 75%. Clinical flow cytometric screening tests for SAP and XIAP deficiencies offer good sensitivity and specificity for detecting genetic mutations, and are characterized by high NPVs. We recommend these tests for patients suspected of having X-linked lymphoproliferative disease type 1 (XLP1) or XLP2. © 2014 Clinical Cytometry Society.

International variation in the prevalence of preclinical colorectal cancer: Implications for predictive values of noninvasive screening tests and potential target populations for screening

PubMed Central

Stock, Christian; Brenner, Hermann

2017-01-01

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is implemented in an increasing number of countries. We aimed to assess international variation in the prevalence of preclinical CRC and the resulting variation in positive and negative predictive values (PPVs, NPVs) of existing and potential CRC screening tests in various countries. Using age‐ and sex‐specific CRC incidence data and transition rates from preclinical to clinical CRC we estimated overall and age‐ and sex‐specific prevalence of preclinical CRC in the target population aged 50–74 years in different parts of the world. These prevalence estimates were used to derive PPVs and NPVs for existing and potential noninvasive screening tests with varying levels of sensitivity and specificity. Within all regions and countries, prevalence strongly increases with age and is higher in men than in women. In addition, major variation was seen between regions and countries, with overall prevalence varying between 1 and 0.1%. As a result, PPVs are expected to strongly vary between ∼10% for men in high incidence countries, such as Australia and Germany, and 1% for women in low incidence countries, whereas NPVs are expected to be consistently well above 99%. Variation in CRC prevalence profoundly affects expected PPVs of screening tests, and PPVs should be carefully considered when decisions on screening tests and strategies are made for specific populations and health care systems. Here, we provide estimates of preclinical CRC and expected PPVs and NPVs of noninvasive screening tests, which may enhance the empirical basis for planning of population‐based CRC screening strategies. PMID:28670788

[Accuracy of three methods for the rapid diagnosis of oral candidiasis].

PubMed

Lyu, X; Zhao, C; Yan, Z M; Hua, H

2016-10-09

Objective: To explore a simple, rapid and efficient method for the diagnosis of oral candidiasis in clinical practice. Methods: Totally 124 consecutive patients with suspected oral candidiasis were enrolled from Department of Oral Medicine, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology, Beijing, China. Exfoliated cells of oral mucosa and saliva or concentrated oral rinse) obtained from all participants were tested by three rapid smear methods(10% KOH smear, gram-stained smear, Congo red stained smear). The diagnostic efficacy(sensitivity, specificity, Youden's index, likelihood ratio, consistency, predictive value and area under curve(AUC) of each of the above mentioned three methods was assessed by comparing the results with the gold standard(combination of clinical diagnosis, laboratory diagnosis and expert opinion). Results: Gram-stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) demonstrated highest sensitivity(82.3%). Test of 10%KOH smear of exfoliated cells showed highest specificity(93.5%). Congo red stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) displayed highest diagnostic efficacy(79.0% sensitivity, 80.6% specificity, 0.60 Youden's index, 4.08 positive likelihood ratio, 0.26 negative likelihood ratio, 80% consistency, 80.3% positive predictive value, 79.4% negative predictive value and 0.80 AUC). Conclusions: Test of Congo red stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) could be used as a point-of-care tool for the rapid diagnosis of oral candidiasis in clinical practice. Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-DDD-16008118.

Prediction of genotoxic potential of cosmetic ingredients by an in silico battery system consisting of a combination of an expert rule-based system and a statistics-based system.

PubMed

Aiba née Kaneko, Maki; Hirota, Morihiko; Kouzuki, Hirokazu; Mori, Masaaki

2015-02-01

Genotoxicity is the most commonly used endpoint to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) M7 Guideline on Assessment and Control of DNA Reactive (Mutagenic) Impurities in Pharmaceuticals to Limit Potential Carcinogenic Risk offers guidance on (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) methodologies that predict the outcome of bacterial mutagenicity assay for actual and potential impurities. We examined the effectiveness of the (Q)SAR approach with the combination of DEREK NEXUS as an expert rule-based system and ADMEWorks as a statistics-based system for the prediction of not only mutagenic potential in the Ames test, but also genotoxic potential in mutagenicity and clastogenicity tests, using a data set of 342 chemicals extracted from the literature. The prediction of mutagenic potential or genotoxic potential by DEREK NEXUS or ADMEWorks showed high values of sensitivity and concordance, while prediction by the combination of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks (battery system) showed the highest values of sensitivity and concordance among the three methods, but the lowest value of specificity. The number of false negatives was reduced with the battery system. We also separately predicted the mutagenic potential and genotoxic potential of 41 cosmetic ingredients listed in the International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) among the 342 chemicals. Although specificity was low with the battery system, sensitivity and concordance were high. These results suggest that the battery system consisting of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks is useful for prediction of genotoxic potential of chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients.

SMOQ: a tool for predicting the absolute residue-specific quality of a single protein model with support vector machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is important to predict the quality of a protein structural model before its native structure is known. The method that can predict the absolute local quality of individual residues in a single protein model is rare, yet particularly needed for using, ranking and refining protein models. Results We developed a machine learning tool (SMOQ) that can predict the distance deviation of each residue in a single protein model. SMOQ uses support vector machines (SVM) with protein sequence and structural features (i.e. basic feature set), including amino acid sequence, secondary structures, solvent accessibilities, and residue-residue contacts to make predictions. We also trained a SVM model with two new additional features (profiles and SOV scores) on 20 CASP8 targets and found that including them can only improve the performance when real deviations between native and model are higher than 5Å. The SMOQ tool finally released uses the basic feature set trained on 85 CASP8 targets. Moreover, SMOQ implemented a way to convert predicted local quality scores into a global quality score. SMOQ was tested on the 84 CASP9 single-domain targets. The average difference between the residue-specific distance deviation predicted by our method and the actual distance deviation on the test data is 2.637Å. The global quality prediction accuracy of the tool is comparable to other good tools on the same benchmark. Conclusion SMOQ is a useful tool for protein single model quality assessment. Its source code and executable are available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_toolbox/. PMID:24776231

SMOQ: a tool for predicting the absolute residue-specific quality of a single protein model with support vector machines.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Wang, Zheng; Wang, Yiheng; Cheng, Jianlin

2014-04-28

It is important to predict the quality of a protein structural model before its native structure is known. The method that can predict the absolute local quality of individual residues in a single protein model is rare, yet particularly needed for using, ranking and refining protein models. We developed a machine learning tool (SMOQ) that can predict the distance deviation of each residue in a single protein model. SMOQ uses support vector machines (SVM) with protein sequence and structural features (i.e. basic feature set), including amino acid sequence, secondary structures, solvent accessibilities, and residue-residue contacts to make predictions. We also trained a SVM model with two new additional features (profiles and SOV scores) on 20 CASP8 targets and found that including them can only improve the performance when real deviations between native and model are higher than 5Å. The SMOQ tool finally released uses the basic feature set trained on 85 CASP8 targets. Moreover, SMOQ implemented a way to convert predicted local quality scores into a global quality score. SMOQ was tested on the 84 CASP9 single-domain targets. The average difference between the residue-specific distance deviation predicted by our method and the actual distance deviation on the test data is 2.637Å. The global quality prediction accuracy of the tool is comparable to other good tools on the same benchmark. SMOQ is a useful tool for protein single model quality assessment. Its source code and executable are available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_toolbox/.

Changes in end-tidal CO2 could predict fluid responsiveness in the passive leg raising test but not in the mini-fluid challenge test: A prospective and observational study.

PubMed

Xiao-ting, Wang; Hua, Zhao; Da-wei, Liu; Hong-min, Zhang; Huai-wu, He; Yun, Long; Wen-zhao, Chai

2015-10-01

The objective is to explore the value of end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2) in replacing cardiac index for evaluating fluid responsiveness during the passive leg raising (PLR) test and mini-fluid challenge (mini-FC). Patients experiencing septic shock and who were on mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit were divided into responder and nonresponder groups according to whether their cardiac index increased by more than 10% after the FC. Before and after those tests, the changes in ETCO2, central venous pressure, heart rate, mean arterial pressure, pulse pressure, and cardiac output were recorded. Of the 48 patients in the study, 34 had fluid responsiveness according to the changes in cardiac output or stroke volume. The ΔCI and ΔETCO2 in the responder group were larger than the changes in the nonresponder group during the PLR test (1.1 ± 0.7 vs 0.2 ± 0.4 L/min per square meter, 3.0 ± 3.0 vs 0.5 ± 2.5 mm Hg; P < .05) but not during mini-FC. ΔETCO2 greater than or equal to 5% during the PLR test predicted fluid responsiveness with 93.4% specificity and 75.8% sensitivity in a receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve was 0.849 (95% confidence interval, 0.739-0.930). ΔETCO2 greater than or equal to 3% during the mini-FC predicted fluid responsiveness with 93.4% specificity and 33.3% sensitivity in a receiver operating characteristic curve, and the area under the curve was 0.781 (95% confidence interval, 0.646-0.915). The changes in ETCO2 may predict fluid responsiveness during the PLR test in patients with septic shock, but similar results were not found with the mini-FC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Baseline morning cortisol level as a predictor of pituitary-adrenal reserve: a comparison across three assays.

PubMed

Sbardella, Emilia; Isidori, Andrea M; Woods, Conor P; Argese, Nicola; Tomlinson, Jeremy W; Shine, Brian; Jafar-Mohammadi, Bahram; Grossman, Ashley B

2017-02-01

The short ACTH stimulation test (250 μg) is the dynamic test most frequently used to assess adrenal function. It is possible that a single basal cortisol could be used to predict the dynamic response, but research has been hampered by the use of different assays and thresholds. To propose a morning baseline cortisol criterion of three of the most commonly used modern cortisol immunoassays - Advia Centaur (Siemens), Architect (Abbott) and the Roche Modular System (Roche) - that could predict adrenal sufficiency. Observational, retrospective cross-sectional study at two centres. Retrospective analysis of the results of 1019 Short Synacthen tests (SSTs) with the Advia Centaur, 449 SSTs with the Architect and 2050 SSTs with the Roche Modular System assay. Serum cortisol levels were measured prior to injection of 250 μg Synacthen and after 30 min. Overall, we were able to collate data from a total of 3518 SSTs in 3571 patients. Using receiver-operator curve analysis, baseline cortisol levels for predicting passing the SST with 100% specificity were 358 nmol/l for Siemens, 336 nmol/l for Abbott and 506 nmol/l for Roche. Utilizing these criteria, 589, 158 and 578 SSTs, respectively, for Siemens, Abbott and Roche immunoassays could have been avoided. We have defined assay-specific morning cortisol levels that are able to predict the integrity of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis. We propose that this represents a valid tool for the initial assessment of adrenal function and has the potential to obviate the need for dynamic testing in a significant number of patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Incorporation of in silico biodegradability screening in early drug development--a feasible approach?

PubMed

Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Länge, Reinhard; Heuck, Klaus

2011-05-01

The concentration of a pharmaceutical found in the environment is determined by the amount used by the patient, the excretion and metabolism pattern, and eventually by its persistence. Biological degradation or persistence of a pharmaceutical is experimentally tested rather late in the development of a pharmaceutical, often shortly before submission of the dossier to regulatory authorities. To investigate whether the aspect of persistence of a compound could be assessed early during drug development, we investigated whether biodegradation of pharmaceuticals could be predicted with the help of in silico tools. To assess the value of in silico prediction, we collected results for the OECD 301 degradation test ("ready biodegradability") of 42 drugs or drug synthesis intermediates and compared them to the prediction of the in silico tool BIOWIN. Of these compounds, 38 were predictable with BIOWIN, which is a module of the Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite™ provided by the US EPA. The program failed to predict the two drugs which proved to be readily biodegradable in the degradation tests. On the other hand, BIOWIN predicted two compounds to be readily biodegradable which, however, proved to be persistent in the test setting. The comparison of experimental data with the predicted one resulted in a specificity of 94% and a sensitivity of 0%. The results of this study do not indicate that application of the biodegradation prediction tool BIOWIN is a feasible approach to assess the ready biodegradability during early drug development.

The Diagnostic Role of Magnetic Resonance Enterography as a Complementary Test to Colonoscopy in Active Crohn's Disease.

PubMed

Aryan, Arvin; Azizi, Zahra; Teimouri, Azam; Ebrahimi Daryani, Nasser; Aletaha, Najme; Jahanbakhsh, Ali; Nouritaromlou, Mohammad Kazem; Alborzi, Forough; Mami, Masoud; Basirat, Vahid; Javid Anbardan, Sanam

2016-04-01

BACKGROUND According to recent studies comparing magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) with ileocolonoscopy for assessing inflammation of small bowel and colonic segments in adults with active Crohn's disease (CD), we aimed to compare the accuracy of these two diagnostic methods in Iranian population. METHODS During 2013-2014 a follow-up study was done on 30 patients with active CD in a gastroenterology clinic affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences. MRE and ileocolonoscopy were performed for all the patients. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 18) and p-value<0.05 was considered as statistically significant. RESULTS Of the 30 patients with active CD, 11(36.7%) were men and 19 (63.3%) were women with mean age of 37.30±13.66 years (range: 19-67 years). MRE had sensitivity and specificity of 50% and 90% with positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 71.43 and 78.26, respectively for localizing sigmoid lesions and ileum had sensitivity and specificity of 84.21 and 45.45 with PPV and NPV of 72.73 and 62.50, respectively. CONCLUSION While moderate sensitivity and high specificity of MRE in localizing colonic lesions makes it an appropriate confirmatory test after colonoscopy, the reported high sensitivity and moderate specificity of MRE versus colonoscopy in detecting ileal lesions makes it a suitable screening test for ileal lesions. Finally we can conclude that MRE can be an important complementary test to colonoscopy in detecting active disease.

Performance of diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in North American furbearers and implications for surveillance.

PubMed

O'Brien, D J; Fierke, J S; Cooley, T M; Fitzgerald, S D; Cosgrove, M K; Schmitt, S M

2013-11-01

Risks of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) transmission from free-ranging wildlife to livestock remain a concern in the United States, in both known endemic areas and where spillover from recently-infected livestock herds occurs. Federal agriculture officials in the United States (US) have recommended surveillance of non-cervid furbearers to determine whether free-ranging wildlife in the vicinity of cattle herd breakdowns are bTB infected, yet the efficacy of common diagnostic tests in these species is largely unknown. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and positive likelihood ratios for bTB infection in carcasses of sixteen species of furbearers tested via: (i) the presence of gross lesions compatible with bTB; (ii) histopathology consistent with bTB; and (iii) the presence of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) on histopathology. The gold standard comparison test was mycobacterial culture of cranial ± visceral lymph nodes pooled for each animal. Forty-two animals distributed across six species cultured bTB positive from among 1522 furbearers tested over thirteen years. The sensitivity of all three tests was poor (10%, 22% and 24% for gross lesions, AFB and histopathology, respectively), while specificities (all ≥ 99%) and negative predictive values (all ≥ 97%) were high. Positive predictive values varied widely (31-75%). Likelihood ratios for culture positivity given a positive test result showed AFB on histopathology to be the most reliable test, and gross lesions the least, though confidence intervals were wide and overlapping. While non-cervid furbearers may prove useful in North American bTB surveillance, wildlife managers should be aware of factors that may abate their utility and complicate interpretation of surveillance. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Predictive Tool for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bank, Bruce A.; de Groh, Kim K.; Backus, Jane A.

2008-01-01

A predictive tool was developed to estimate the low Earth orbit (LEO) atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on the results of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) Polymers experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2). The MISSE 2 PEACE experiment accurately measured the erosion yield of a wide variety of polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The 40 different materials tested were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The resulting erosion yield data was used to develop a predictive tool which utilizes chemical structure and physical properties of polymers that can be measured in ground laboratory testing to predict the in-space atomic oxygen erosion yield of a polymer. The properties include chemical structure, bonding information, density and ash content. The resulting predictive tool has a correlation coefficient of 0.914 when compared with actual MISSE 2 space data for 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The intent of the predictive tool is to be able to make estimates of atomic oxygen erosion yields for new polymers without requiring expensive and time consumptive in-space testing.

Demagnetization Tests Performed on a Linear Alternator for a Stirling Power Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Steven M.; Niedra, Janis M.; Schwarze, Gene E.

2012-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is conducting in-house research on rare-earth permanent magnets and linear alternators to assist in developing free-piston Stirling convertors for radioisotope space power systems and for developing advanced linear alternator technology. This research continues at GRC, but, with the exception of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator references, the work presented in this paper was conducted in 2005. A special arc-magnet characterization fixture was designed and built to measure the M-H characteristics of the magnets used in Technology Demonstration Convertors developed under the 110-W Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) project. This fixture was used to measure these characteristics of the arc magnets and to predict alternator demagnetization temperatures in the SRG110 application. Demagnetization tests using the TDC alternator on the Alternator Test Rig were conducted for two different magnet grades: Sumitomo Neomax 44AH and 42AH. The purpose of these tests was to determine the demagnetization temperatures of the magnets for the alternator under nominal loads. Measurements made during the tests included the linear alternator terminal voltage, current, average power, magnet temperatures, and stator temperatures. The results of these tests were found to be in good agreement with predictions. Alternator demagnetization temperatures in the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC-developed under the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator project) were predicted as well because the prediction method had been validated through the SRG110 alternator tests. These predictions led to a specification for maximum temperatures of the ASC pressure vessel.

a Sensor Based Automatic Ovulation Prediction System for Dairy Cows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Toby; Hart, John; Pemberton, Roy

2000-12-01

Sensor scientists have been successful in developing detectors for tiny concentrations of rare compounds, but the work is rarely applied in practice. Any but the most trivial application of sensors requires a specification that should include a sampling system, a sensor, a calibration system and a model of how the information is to be used to control the process of interest. The specification of the sensor system should ask the following questions. How will the material to be analysed be sampled? What decision can be made with the information available from a proposed sensor? This project provides a model of a systems approach to the implementation of automatic ovulation prediction in dairy cows. A healthy well managed dairy cow should calve every year to make the best use of forage. As most cows are inseminated artificially it is of vital importance mat cows are regularly monitored for signs of oestrus. The pressure on dairymen to manage more cows often leads to less time being available for observation of cows to detect oestrus. This, together with breeding and feeding for increased yields, has led to a reduction in reproductive performance. In the UK the typical dairy farmer could save € 12800 per year if ovulation could be predicted accurately. Research over a number of years has shown that regular analysis of milk samples with tests based on enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA) can map the ovulation cycle. However, these tests require the farmer to implement a manually operated sampling and analysis procedure and the technique has not been widely taken up. The best potential method of achieving 98% specificity of prediction of ovulation is to adapt biosensor techniques to emulate the ELISA tests automatically in the milking system. An automated ovulation prediction system for dairy cows is specified. The system integrates a biosensor with automatic milk sampling and a herd management database. The biosensor is a screen printed carbon electrode system capable of measuring concentrations of progesterone in milk in the range 0.3-25 ng/ml. The system is operational in the laboratory is described here and will be working on a test farm in the near future to automatically predict the ovulation of dairy cows routinely.

A Randomized Comparative Study Evaluating Various Cough Stress Tests and 24-Hour Pad Test with Urodynamics in the Diagnosis of Stress Urinary Incontinence.

PubMed

Henderson, Joseph W; Kane, Sarah M; Mangel, Jeffrey M; Kikano, Elias G; Garibay, Jorge A; Pollard, Robert R; Mahajan, Sangeeta T; Debanne, Sara M; Hijaz, Adonis K

2018-06-01

The cough stress test is a common and accepted tool to evaluate stress urinary incontinence but there is no agreement on how the test should be performed. We assessed the diagnostic ability of different cough stress tests performed when varying patient position and bladder volume using urodynamic stress urinary incontinence as the gold standard. The 24-hour pad test was also evaluated. We recruited women who presented to specialty outpatient clinics with the complaint of urinary incontinence and who were recommended to undergo urodynamic testing. A total of 140 patients were randomized to 4 cough stress test groups, including group 1-a comfortably full bladder, group 2-an empty bladder, group 3- a bladder infused with 200 cc saline and group 4-a bladder filled to half functional capacity. The sequence of standing and sitting was randomly assigned. The groups were compared by 1-way ANOVA or the generalized Fisher exact test. The κ statistic was used to evaluate agreement between the sitting and standing positions. The 95% CIs of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using the Wilson method. ROC analysis was done to evaluate the performance of the 24-hour pad test. The cough stress test performed with a bladder filled to half functional capacity was the best performing test with 83% sensitivity and 90% specificity. There was no statistically significant evidence that the sensitivity or specificity of 1 cough stress test differed from that of the others. The pad test had no significant predictive ability to diagnose urodynamic stress urinary incontinence (AUC 0.60, p = 0.08). Cough stress tests were accurate to diagnose urodynamic stress urinary incontinence. The 24-hour pad test was not predictive of urodynamic stress urinary incontinence and not helpful when used in conjunction with the cough stress test. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

PubMed

Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

2016-01-01

Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

Accuracy of blood culture for early diagnosis of mediastinitis in febrile patients after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

San Juan, R; Aguado, J M; López, M J; Lumbreras, C; Enriquez, F; Sanz, F; Chaves, F; López-Medrano, F; Lizasoain, M; Rufilanchas, J J

2005-03-01

Postsurgical mediastinitis (PSM) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery procedures. Although prompt diagnosis is crucial in these patients, neither clinical data nor imaging techniques have shown enough sensitivity or specificity for early diagnosis of PSM. The aim of the present study was to assess the validity of blood cultures as a diagnostic test for the early detection of PSM in patients who become febrile after cardiac surgery procedures. During a 4-year period (1999-2002), patients who developed fever (>37.8 degrees C) in the first 60 days after a cardiac surgery procedure were evaluated. Blood cultures were drawn from these patients. PSM was defined as deep infection involving retrosternal tissue and/or the sternal bone directly observed by the surgeon and confirmed microbiologically. Three criteria for positivity of blood cultures were applied: bacteremia, staphylococcal bacteremia, or Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia. For purposes of the analysis, a positive blood culture in patients with PSM was considered a true-positive test and a negative blood culture a false-negative test. Otherwise, in febrile patients without PSM in the postsurgery period, a positive blood culture was considered a false-positive test and a negative blood culture a true-negative test. Blood cultures were drawn from 266 febrile patients in the postsurgery period. PSM occurred in 38 patients (26 cases due to S. aureus, 8 to Staphylococcus epidermidis, 3 to gram-negative enteric bacteria, and one to Pseudomonas aeruginosa). Within the 60-day postsurgical period, blood culture as a diagnostic test was most accurate in patients with S. aureus bacteremia, providing 68% sensitivity, 98% specificity, a positive predictive value of 87%, and a negative predictive value of 95%. If the analysis was limited to the period during which patients are at maximum risk for PSM (day 7-20), the values in patients with S. aureus bacteremia were as follows: 73% sensitivity, 98% specificity, 90% positive predictive value, and 93% negative predictive value. Blood culture is an accurate test for the early diagnosis of PSM in febrile patients after cardiac surgery, particularly in institutions where S. aureus is prevalent in this context. A negative blood culture practically excludes PSM and, during the period of maximum risk for PSM, the presence of S. aureus bacteremia should compel early surgical management.

Predicting Ideological Prejudice

PubMed Central

Brandt, Mark J.

2017-01-01

A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans (N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models’ predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors. PMID:28394693

First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

PubMed

Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

2015-05-01

To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

Electrophysiological evidence for preserved primacy of lexical prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, Shruti; Brothers, Trevor A; Traxler, Matthew J; Ferreira, Fernanda; Henderson, John M; Swaab, Tamara Y

2018-05-28

Young adults show consistent neural benefits of predictable contexts when processing upcoming words, but these benefits are less clear-cut in older adults. Here we disentangle the neural correlates of prediction accuracy and contextual support during word processing, in order to test current theories that suggest that neural mechanisms underlying predictive processing are specifically impaired in older adults. During a sentence comprehension task, older and younger readers were asked to predict passage-final words and report the accuracy of these predictions. Age-related reductions were observed for N250 and N400 effects of prediction accuracy, as well as for N400 effects of contextual support independent of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, temporal primacy of predictive processing (i.e., earlier facilitation for successful predictions) was preserved across the lifespan, suggesting that predictive mechanisms are unlikely to be uniquely impaired in older adults. In addition, older adults showed prediction effects on frontal post-N400 positivities (PNPs) that were similar in amplitude to PNPs in young adults. Previous research has shown correlations between verbal fluency and lexical prediction in older adult readers, suggesting that the production system may be linked to capacity for lexical prediction, especially in aging. The current study suggests that verbal fluency modulates PNP effects of contextual support, but not prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings suggest that aging does not result in specific declines in lexical prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Shuttle SRM development. [Solid Rocket Motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinton, B. C.; Kilminster, J. C.

1979-01-01

The successful static test of the fourth Development Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) in February 1979 concluded the development testing phase of the SRM Project. Qualification and flight motors are currently being fabricated, with the first qualification motor to be static tested. Delivered thrust-time traces on all development motors were very close to predicted values, and both specific and total impulse exceeded specification requirements. 'All-up' static tests conducted with a solid rocket booster equipment on development motors achieved all test objectives. Transportation and support equipment concepts have been proven, baselining is complete, and component reusability has been demonstrated. Evolution of the SRM transportation support equipment, and special test equipment designs are reviewed, and development activities discussed. Handling and processing aspects of large, heavy components are described.

Sensitivity and specificity of the 'knee-up test' for estimation of the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale in patients with acute motor incomplete cervical spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Yugué, Itaru; Okada, Seiji; Maeda, Takeshi; Ueta, Takayoshi; Shiba, Keiichiro

2018-04-01

A retrospective study. Precise classification of the neurological state of patients with acute cervical spinal cord injury (CSCI) can be challenging. This study proposed a useful and simple clinical method to help classify patients with incomplete CSCI. Spinal Injuries Centre, Japan. The sensitivity and specificity of the 'knee-up test' were evaluated in patients with acute CSCI classified as American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) C or D. The result is positive if the patient can lift the knee in one or both legs to an upright position, whereas the result is negative if the patient is unable to lift the knee in either leg to an upright position. The AIS of these patients was classified according to a strict computerised algorithm designed by Walden et al., and the knee-up test was tested by non-expert examiners. Among the 200 patients, 95 and 105 were classified as AIS C and AIS D, respectively. Overall, 126 and 74 patients demonstrated positive and negative results, respectively, when evaluated using the knee-up test. A total of 104 patients with positive results and 73 patients with negative results were classified as AIS D and AIS C, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values of this test for all patients were 99.1, 76.8, 82.5 and 98.7, respectively. The knee-up test may allow easy and highly accurate estimation, without the need for special skills, of AIS classification for patients with incomplete CSCI.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia reactivity to a sad film predicts depression symptom improvement and symptomatic trajectory

PubMed Central

Panaite, Vanessa; Hindash, Alexandra Cowden; Bylsma, Lauren M.; Small, Brent J.; Salomon, Kristen; Rottenberg, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) reactivity, an index of cardiac vagal tone, has been linked to self-regulation and the severity and course of depression (Rottenberg, 2007). Although initial data supports the proposition that RSA withdrawal during a sad film is a specific predictor of depression course (Fraguas, 2007; Rottenberg, 2005), the robustness and specificity of this finding are unclear. To provide a stronger test, RSA reactivity to three emotion films (happy, sad, fear) and to a more robust stressor, a speech task, were examined in currently depressed individuals (n = 37), who were assessed for their degree of symptomatic improvement over 30 weeks. Robust RSA reactivity to the sad film uniquely predicted overall symptom improvement over 30 weeks. RSA reactivity to both sad and stressful stimuli predicted the speed and maintenance of symptomatic improvement. The current analyses provide the most robust support to date that RSA withdrawal to sad stimuli (but not stressful) has specificity in predicting the overall symptomatic improvement. In contrast, RSA reactivity to negative stimuli (both sad and stressful) predicted the trajectory of depression course. Patients’ engagement with sad stimuli may be an important sign to attend to in therapeutic settings. PMID:26681648

Predicting Silk Fiber Mechanical Properties through Multiscale Simulation and Protein Design.

PubMed

Rim, Nae-Gyune; Roberts, Erin G; Ebrahimi, Davoud; Dinjaski, Nina; Jacobsen, Matthew M; Martín-Moldes, Zaira; Buehler, Markus J; Kaplan, David L; Wong, Joyce Y

2017-08-14

Silk is a promising material for biomedical applications, and much research is focused on how application-specific, mechanical properties of silk can be designed synthetically through proper amino acid sequences and processing parameters. This protocol describes an iterative process between research disciplines that combines simulation, genetic synthesis, and fiber analysis to better design silk fibers with specific mechanical properties. Computational methods are used to assess the protein polymer structure as it forms an interconnected fiber network through shearing and how this process affects fiber mechanical properties. Model outcomes are validated experimentally with the genetic design of protein polymers that match the simulation structures, fiber fabrication from these polymers, and mechanical testing of these fibers. Through iterative feedback between computation, genetic synthesis, and fiber mechanical testing, this protocol will enable a priori prediction capability of recombinant material mechanical properties via insights from the resulting molecular architecture of the fiber network based entirely on the initial protein monomer composition. This style of protocol may be applied to other fields where a research team seeks to design a biomaterial with biomedical application-specific properties. This protocol highlights when and how the three research groups (simulation, synthesis, and engineering) should be interacting to arrive at the most effective method for predictive design of their material.

An intelligent clinical decision support system for patient-specific predictions to improve cervical intraepithelial neoplasia detection.

PubMed

Bountris, Panagiotis; Haritou, Maria; Pouliakis, Abraham; Margari, Niki; Kyrgiou, Maria; Spathis, Aris; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos A; Karakitsos, Petros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios-Dionyssios

2014-01-01

Nowadays, there are molecular biology techniques providing information related to cervical cancer and its cause: the human Papillomavirus (HPV), including DNA microarrays identifying HPV subtypes, mRNA techniques such as nucleic acid based amplification or flow cytometry identifying E6/E7 oncogenes, and immunocytochemistry techniques such as overexpression of p16. Each one of these techniques has its own performance, limitations and advantages, thus a combinatorial approach via computational intelligence methods could exploit the benefits of each method and produce more accurate results. In this article we propose a clinical decision support system (CDSS), composed by artificial neural networks, intelligently combining the results of classic and ancillary techniques for diagnostic accuracy improvement. We evaluated this method on 740 cases with complete series of cytological assessment, molecular tests, and colposcopy examination. The CDSS demonstrated high sensitivity (89.4%), high specificity (97.1%), high positive predictive value (89.4%), and high negative predictive value (97.1%), for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). In comparison to the tests involved in this study and their combinations, the CDSS produced the most balanced results in terms of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV. The proposed system may reduce the referral rate for colposcopy and guide personalised management and therapeutic interventions.

An Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System for Patient-Specific Predictions to Improve Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Detection

PubMed Central

Bountris, Panagiotis; Haritou, Maria; Pouliakis, Abraham; Margari, Niki; Kyrgiou, Maria; Spathis, Aris; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos A.; Karakitsos, Petros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios-Dionyssios

2014-01-01

Nowadays, there are molecular biology techniques providing information related to cervical cancer and its cause: the human Papillomavirus (HPV), including DNA microarrays identifying HPV subtypes, mRNA techniques such as nucleic acid based amplification or flow cytometry identifying E6/E7 oncogenes, and immunocytochemistry techniques such as overexpression of p16. Each one of these techniques has its own performance, limitations and advantages, thus a combinatorial approach via computational intelligence methods could exploit the benefits of each method and produce more accurate results. In this article we propose a clinical decision support system (CDSS), composed by artificial neural networks, intelligently combining the results of classic and ancillary techniques for diagnostic accuracy improvement. We evaluated this method on 740 cases with complete series of cytological assessment, molecular tests, and colposcopy examination. The CDSS demonstrated high sensitivity (89.4%), high specificity (97.1%), high positive predictive value (89.4%), and high negative predictive value (97.1%), for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). In comparison to the tests involved in this study and their combinations, the CDSS produced the most balanced results in terms of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV. The proposed system may reduce the referral rate for colposcopy and guide personalised management and therapeutic interventions. PMID:24812614

Determination of photovoltaic concentrator optical design specifications using performance modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschen, Kevin A.; Levy, Sheldon L.

The strategy used to develop an optical design specification for a 500X concentration photovoltaic module to be used with a 28-percent-efficient concentrator photovoltaic cell is reported. The computer modeling code (PVOPTICS) developed for this purpose, a Fresnel lens design strategy, and optical component specification procedures are described. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance and the measured performance of components fabricated to those specifications. An acrylic lens and a reflective secondary optical element have been tested, showing efficiencies exceeding 88 percent.

Molecular allergy diagnostics using IgE singleplex determinations: methodological and practical considerations for use in clinical routine: Part 18 of the Series Molecular Allergology.

PubMed

Kleine-Tebbe, Jörg; Jakob, Thilo

Allergen molecules (synonyms: single allergens, allergen components) open up new horizons for the targeted allergen-specific diagnostics of immunoglobulin E (IgE) in singleplex determination. The following rationales support the targeted use of allergen molecules and, more importantly, improve test properties: (1) increased test sensitivity ("analytical sensitivity"), particularly when important allergens are under-represented or lacking in the extract; (2) improved test selectivity (analytical specificity), particularly when the selected IgE repertoire against an allergen yields additional information on: (a) potential risk, (b) possible cross-reactivity, or (c) primary (species-specific) sensitization. However, the appropriate indication for the use of single allergens can only be established on a case-by-case basis (depending on the clinical context and previous history) and in an allergen-specific manner (depending on the allergen source and the single allergens available), rather than in a standardized way. Numerous investigations on suspected food allergy, insect venom allergy, or sensitization to respiratory allergens have meanwhile demonstrated the successful use of defined molecules for allergen-specific singleplex IgE diagnosis. Specific IgE to single allergens is limited in its suitability to predict the clinical relevance of sensitivity on an individual basis. In food allergies, one can at best identify the relative risk of a clinical reaction on the basis of an IgE profile, but no absolutely reliable prediction on (future) tolerance can be made. Ultimately, the clinical relevance of all IgE findings depends on the presence of corresponding symptoms and can only be assessed on an individual basis (previous history, symptom log, and provocation testing with the relevant allergen source where appropriate). Thus, also in molecular allergology, the treating physician and not the test result should determine the clinical relevance of diagnostic findings. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/s40629-015-0067-z and is accessible for authorized users.

Use of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms with Gene Expression Profiling to Predict Recurrent Nonmuscle Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder.

PubMed

Bartsch, Georg; Mitra, Anirban P; Mitra, Sheetal A; Almal, Arpit A; Steven, Kenneth E; Skinner, Donald G; Fry, David W; Lenehan, Peter F; Worzel, William P; Cote, Richard J

2016-02-01

Due to the high recurrence risk of nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma it is crucial to distinguish patients at high risk from those with indolent disease. In this study we used a machine learning algorithm to identify the genes in patients with nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma at initial presentation that were most predictive of recurrence. We used the genes in a molecular signature to predict recurrence risk within 5 years after transurethral resection of bladder tumor. Whole genome profiling was performed on 112 frozen nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma specimens obtained at first presentation on Human WG-6 BeadChips (Illumina®). A genetic programming algorithm was applied to evolve classifier mathematical models for outcome prediction. Cross-validation based resampling and gene use frequencies were used to identify the most prognostic genes, which were combined into rules used in a voting algorithm to predict the sample target class. Key genes were validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The classifier set included 21 genes that predicted recurrence. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was done for these genes in a subset of 100 patients. A 5-gene combined rule incorporating a voting algorithm yielded 77% sensitivity and 85% specificity to predict recurrence in the training set, and 69% and 62%, respectively, in the test set. A singular 3-gene rule was constructed that predicted recurrence with 80% sensitivity and 90% specificity in the training set, and 71% and 67%, respectively, in the test set. Using primary nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma from initial occurrences genetic programming identified transcripts in reproducible fashion, which were predictive of recurrence. These findings could potentially impact nonmuscle invasive urothelial carcinoma management. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 onto the EQ-5D-3L: assessing the external validity of existing mapping algorithms.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; Lorgelly, Paula

2016-04-01

To determine the external validity of existing mapping algorithms for predicting EQ-5D-3L utility values from EORTC QLQ-C30 responses and to establish their generalizability in different types of cancer. A main analysis (pooled) sample of 3560 observations (1727 patients) and two disease severity patient samples (496 and 93 patients) with repeated observations over time from Cancer 2015 were used to validate the existing algorithms. Errors were calculated between observed and predicted EQ-5D-3L utility values using a single pooled sample and ten pooled tumour type-specific samples. Predictive accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) and standardized root-mean-squared error (RMSE). The association between observed and predicted EQ-5D utility values and other covariates across the distribution was tested using quantile regression. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using observed and predicted values to test responsiveness. Ten 'preferred' mapping algorithms were identified. Two algorithms estimated via response mapping and ordinary least-squares regression using dummy variables performed well on number of validation criteria, including accurate prediction of the best and worst QLQ-C30 health states, predicted values within the EQ-5D tariff range, relatively small MAEs and RMSEs, and minimal differences between estimated QALYs. Comparison of predictive accuracy across ten tumour type-specific samples highlighted that algorithms are relatively insensitive to grouping by tumour type and affected more by differences in disease severity. Two of the 'preferred' mapping algorithms suggest more accurate predictions, but limitations exist. We recommend extensive scenario analyses if mapped utilities are used in cost-utility analyses.

Performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Guo, Rui; Ma, Lu; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-12-01

Hematoma expansion is independently associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Blend sign is a simple predictor for hematoma expansion on non-contrast computed tomography. However, its accuracy for predicting hematoma expansion is inconsistent in previous studies. This meta-analysis is aimed to systematically assess the performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was conducted. Original studies about predictive accuracy of blend sign for hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve was constructed. Publication bias was assessed by Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. A total of 5 studies with 2248 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.28, 0.92, 3.4 and 0.78, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.85. No significant publication bias was found. This meta-analysis demonstrates that blend sign is a useful predictor with high specificity for hematoma expansion in ICH. Further studies with larger sample size are still necessary to verify the accuracy of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attention toward contexts modulates context-specificity of behavior in human predictive learning: Evidence from the n-back task.

PubMed

Uengoer, Metin; Lucke, Sara; Lachnit, Harald

2018-02-20

According to the attentional theory of context processing (ATCP), learning becomes context specific when acquired under conditions that promote attention toward contextual stimuli regardless of whether attention deployment is guided by learning experience or by other factors unrelated to learning. In one experiment with humans, we investigated whether performance in a predictive learning task can be brought under contextual control by means of a secondary task that was unrelated to predictive learning, but supposed to modulate participants' attention toward contexts. Initially, participants acquired cue-outcome relationships presented in contexts that were each composed of two elements from two dimensions. Acquisition training in the predictive learning task was combined with a one-back task that required participants to match across consecutive trials context elements belonging to one of the two dimensions. During a subsequent test, we observed that acquisition behavior in the predictive learning task was disrupted by changing the acquisition context along the dimension that was relevant for the one-back task, while there was no evidence for context specificity of predictive learning when the acquisition context was changed along the dimension that was irrelevant for the one-back task. Our results support the generality of the principles advocated by ATCP.

The Theory of Planned Behavior within the Stages of the Transtheoretical Model: Latent Structural Modeling of Stage-Specific Prediction Patterns in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lippke, Sonia; Nigg, Claudio R.; Maddock, Jay E.

2007-01-01

This is the first study to test whether the stages of change of the transtheoretical model are qualitatively different through exploring discontinuity patterns in theory of planned behavior (TPB) variables using latent multigroup structural equation modeling (MSEM) with AMOS. Discontinuity patterns in terms of latent means and prediction patterns…

Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores Predict Reading Performance throughout the School Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selzam, Saskia; Dale, Philip S.; Wagner, Richard K.; DeFries, John C.; Cederlöf, Martin; O'Reilly, Paul F.; Krapohl, Eva; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

It is now possible to create individual-specific genetic scores, called genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS). We used a GPS for years of education ("EduYears") to predict reading performance assessed at UK National Curriculum Key Stages 1 (age 7), 2 (age 12) and 3 (age 14) and on reading tests administered at ages 7 and 12 in a UK sample…

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement

PubMed Central

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F. -Sophie; Spinath, Frank M.; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students’ academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development. PMID:26347698

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement.

PubMed

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F-Sophie; Spinath, Frank M; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students' academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development.

A predictive software tool for optimal timing in contrast enhanced carotid MR angiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghaddam, Abbas N.; Balawi, Tariq; Habibi, Reza; Panknin, Christoph; Laub, Gerhard; Ruehm, Stefan; Finn, J. Paul

2008-03-01

A clear understanding of the first pass dynamics of contrast agents in the vascular system is crucial in synchronizing data acquisition of 3D MR angiography (MRA) with arrival of the contrast bolus in the vessels of interest. We implemented a computational model to simulate contrast dynamics in the vessels using the theory of linear time-invariant systems. The algorithm calculates a patient-specific impulse response for the contrast concentration from time-resolved images following a small test bolus injection. This is performed for a specific region of interest and through deconvolution of the intensity curve using the long division method. Since high spatial resolution 3D MRA is not time-resolved, the method was validated on time-resolved arterial contrast enhancement in Multi Slice CT angiography. For 20 patients, the timing of the contrast enhancement of the main bolus was predicted by our algorithm from the response to the test bolus, and then for each case the predicted time of maximum intensity was compared to the corresponding time in the actual scan which resulted in an acceptable agreement. Furthermore, as a qualitative validation, the algorithm's predictions of the timing of the carotid MRA in 20 patients with high quality MRA were correlated with the actual timing of those studies. We conclude that the above algorithm can be used as a practical clinical tool to eliminate guesswork and to replace empiric formulae by a priori computation of patient-specific timing of data acquisition for MR angiography.

Diagnostic value of immunoglobulin G antibodies against Candida enolase and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase for candidemia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The yeast Candida is one of the most frequent pathogens isolated from bloodstream infections and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Problems with clinical and microbiological diagnosis of invasive candidiasis (IC) have prompted the development of non-culture-based laboratory methods. Previous reports suggest that serological detection of antibodies might be useful for diagnosing systemic candidiasis. Methods Diagnosis of IC using antibodies against recombinant Candida albicans enolase (Eno) and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase (Fba1) was evaluated. Using recombinant Eno and Fba1 as coating antigens, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to analyze sera from patients with candidemia (n = 101), Candida colonization (n = 50), bacteremia (n = 84), invasive aspergillosis (n = 40); and from healthy controls (n = 200). Results The results demonstrated that ELISA detection of anti-Eno and anti-Fba1 IgG distinguished IC from other pathogenic infections in patients and healthy individuals. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 72.3%, 94.7%, 78.5% and 93% for anti-Eno, and 87.1%, 92.8%, 76.5% and 96.4% for anti-Fba1 antibodies, respectively. Combining these two tests improved sensitivity up to 90.1% and negative predictive value up to 97.1%, with specificity and positive predictive values of 90.6% and 72.2%. The tests were specific to the Candida genus and antibody titers were higher for candidemia patients than for controls. Positive antibody tests were obtained before blood culture results for 42.2% of patients for anti-Eno and 51.1% for anti-Fba1. Conclusion These data suggest that tests that detect IgG antibodies against Candida enolase and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase, especially when used in combination, could be a powerful tool for diagnosing IC. PMID:23725337

Diagnostic value of immunoglobulin G antibodies against Candida enolase and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase for candidemia.

PubMed

Li, Fang-Qiu; Ma, Chun-Fang; Shi, Li-Ning; Lu, Jing-Fen; Wang, Ying; Huang, Mei; Kong, Qian-Qian

2013-05-31

The yeast Candida is one of the most frequent pathogens isolated from bloodstream infections and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Problems with clinical and microbiological diagnosis of invasive candidiasis (IC) have prompted the development of non-culture-based laboratory methods. Previous reports suggest that serological detection of antibodies might be useful for diagnosing systemic candidiasis. Diagnosis of IC using antibodies against recombinant Candida albicans enolase (Eno) and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase (Fba1) was evaluated. Using recombinant Eno and Fba1 as coating antigens, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to analyze sera from patients with candidemia (n = 101), Candida colonization (n = 50), bacteremia (n = 84), invasive aspergillosis (n = 40); and from healthy controls (n = 200). The results demonstrated that ELISA detection of anti-Eno and anti-Fba1 IgG distinguished IC from other pathogenic infections in patients and healthy individuals. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 72.3%, 94.7%, 78.5% and 93% for anti-Eno, and 87.1%, 92.8%, 76.5% and 96.4% for anti-Fba1 antibodies, respectively. Combining these two tests improved sensitivity up to 90.1% and negative predictive value up to 97.1%, with specificity and positive predictive values of 90.6% and 72.2%. The tests were specific to the Candida genus and antibody titers were higher for candidemia patients than for controls. Positive antibody tests were obtained before blood culture results for 42.2% of patients for anti-Eno and 51.1% for anti-Fba1. These data suggest that tests that detect IgG antibodies against Candida enolase and fructose-bisphosphate aldolase, especially when used in combination, could be a powerful tool for diagnosing IC.

Data mining of enzymes using specific peptides

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Predicting the function of a protein from its sequence is a long-standing challenge of bioinformatic research, typically addressed using either sequence-similarity or sequence-motifs. We employ the novel motif method that consists of Specific Peptides (SPs) that are unique to specific branches of the Enzyme Commission (EC) functional classification. We devise the Data Mining of Enzymes (DME) methodology that allows for searching SPs on arbitrary proteins, determining from its sequence whether a protein is an enzyme and what the enzyme's EC classification is. Results We extract novel SP sets from Swiss-Prot enzyme data. Using a training set of July 2006, and test sets of July 2008, we find that the predictive power of SPs, both for true-positives (enzymes) and true-negatives (non-enzymes), depends on the coverage length of all SP matches (the number of amino-acids matched on the protein sequence). DME is quite different from BLAST. Comparing the two on an enzyme test set of July 2008, we find that DME has lower recall. On the other hand, DME can provide predictions for proteins regarded by BLAST as having low homologies with known enzymes, thus supplying complementary information. We test our method on a set of proteins belonging to 10 bacteria, dated July 2008, establishing the usefulness of the coverage-length cutoff to determine true-negatives. Moreover, sifting through our predictions we find that some of them have been substantiated by Swiss-Prot annotations by July 2009. Finally we extract, for production purposes, a novel SP set trained on all Swiss-Prot enzymes as of July 2009. This new set increases considerably the recall of DME. The new SP set is being applied to three metagenomes: Sargasso Sea with over 1,000,000 proteins, producing predictions of over 220,000 enzymes, and two human gut metagenomes. The outcome of these analyses can be characterized by the enzymatic profile of the metagenomes, describing the relative numbers of enzymes observed for different EC categories. Conclusions Employing SPs for predicting enzymatic activity of proteins works well once one utilizes coverage-length criteria. In our analysis, L ≥ 7 has led to highly accurate results. PMID:20034383