Statistical Measures, Hypotheses, and Tests in Applied Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saville, David J.; Rowarth, Jacqueline S.

2008-01-01

This article reviews and discusses the use of statistical concepts in a natural resources and life sciences journal on the basis of a census of the articles published in a recent issue of the "Agronomy Journal" and presents a flow chart and a graph that display the inter-relationships between the most commonly used statistical terms. It also…

Black Male Labor Force Participation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baer, Roger K.

This study attempts to test (via multiple regression analysis) hypothesized relationships between designated independent variables and age specific incidences of labor force participation for black male subpopulations in 54 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Leading independent variables tested include net migration, earnings, unemployment,…

Why Current Statistics of Complementary Alternative Medicine Clinical Trials is Invalid.

PubMed

Pandolfi, Maurizio; Carreras, Giulia

2018-06-07

It is not sufficiently known that frequentist statistics cannot provide direct information on the probability that the research hypothesis tested is correct. The error resulting from this misunderstanding is compounded when the hypotheses under scrutiny have precarious scientific bases, which, generally, those of complementary alternative medicine (CAM) are. In such cases, it is mandatory to use inferential statistics, considering the prior probability that the hypothesis tested is true, such as the Bayesian statistics. The authors show that, under such circumstances, no real statistical significance can be achieved in CAM clinical trials. In this respect, CAM trials involving human material are also hardly defensible from an ethical viewpoint.

Estimating Statistical Power When Making Adjustments for Multiple Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Kristin E.

2016-01-01

In recent years, there has been increasing focus on the issue of multiple hypotheses testing in education evaluation studies. In these studies, researchers are typically interested in testing the effectiveness of an intervention on multiple outcomes, for multiple subgroups, at multiple points in time or across multiple treatment groups. When…

Multiple hypotheses testing based on ordered p values--a historical survey with applications to medical research.

PubMed

Hommel, Gerhard; Bretz, Frank; Maurer, Willi

2011-07-01

Global tests and multiple test procedures are often based on ordered p values. Such procedures are available for arbitrary dependence structures as well as for specific dependence assumptions of the test statistics. Most of these procedures have been considered as global tests. Multiple test procedures can be obtained by applying the closure principle in order to control the familywise error rate, or by using the false discovery rate as a criterion for type I error rate control. We provide an overview and present examples showing the importance of these procedures in medical research. Finally, we discuss modifications when different weights for the hypotheses of interest are chosen.

Approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factors: A general method for testing informative hypotheses.

PubMed

Gu, Xin; Mulder, Joris; Hoijtink, Herbert

2018-05-01

Informative hypotheses are increasingly being used in psychological sciences because they adequately capture researchers' theories and expectations. In the Bayesian framework, the evaluation of informative hypotheses often makes use of default Bayes factors such as the fractional Bayes factor. This paper approximates and adjusts the fractional Bayes factor such that it can be used to evaluate informative hypotheses in general statistical models. In the fractional Bayes factor a fraction parameter must be specified which controls the amount of information in the data used for specifying an implicit prior. The remaining fraction is used for testing the informative hypotheses. We discuss different choices of this parameter and present a scheme for setting it. Furthermore, a software package is described which computes the approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factor. Using this software package, psychological researchers can evaluate informative hypotheses by means of Bayes factors in an easy manner. Two empirical examples are used to illustrate the procedure. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (in Geology)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeesch, Pieter

2009-11-01

According to Karl Popper's epistemology of critical rationalism, scientists should formulate falsifiable hypotheses rather than produce ad hoc answers to empirical observations. In other words, we should predict and test rather than merely explain [Popper, 1959]. Sometimes, statistical tests such as chi-square, t, or Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to make deductions more “objective.” Such tests are used in a wide range of geological subdisciplines [see Reimann and Filzmoser, 2000; Anderson and Johnson, 1999; Lørup et al., 1998; Sircombe and Hazelton, 2004].

Formulating appropriate statistical hypotheses for treatment comparison in clinical trial design and analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Peng; Ou, Ai-hua; Piantadosi, Steven; Tan, Ming

2014-11-01

We discuss the problem of properly defining treatment superiority through the specification of hypotheses in clinical trials. The need to precisely define the notion of superiority in a one-sided hypothesis test problem has been well recognized by many authors. Ideally designed null and alternative hypotheses should correspond to a partition of all possible scenarios of underlying true probability models P={P(ω):ω∈Ω} such that the alternative hypothesis Ha={P(ω):ω∈Ωa} can be inferred upon the rejection of null hypothesis Ho={P(ω):ω∈Ω(o)} However, in many cases, tests are carried out and recommendations are made without a precise definition of superiority or a specification of alternative hypothesis. Moreover, in some applications, the union of probability models specified by the chosen null and alternative hypothesis does not constitute a completed model collection P (i.e., H(o)∪H(a) is smaller than P). This not only imposes a strong non-validated assumption of the underlying true models, but also leads to different superiority claims depending on which test is used instead of scientific plausibility. Different ways to partition P fro testing treatment superiority often have different implications on sample size, power, and significance in both efficacy and comparative effectiveness trial design. Such differences are often overlooked. We provide a theoretical framework for evaluating the statistical properties of different specification of superiority in typical hypothesis testing. This can help investigators to select proper hypotheses for treatment comparison inclinical trial design. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual Abuse, Family Environment, and Psychological Symptoms: On the Validity of Statistical Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briere, John; Elliott, Diana M.

1993-01-01

Responds to article in which Nash et al. reported on effects of controlling for family environment when studying sexual abuse sequelae. Considers findings in terms of theoretical and statistical constraints placed on analysis of covariance and other partializing procedures. Questions use of covariate techniques to test hypotheses about causal role…

Distinguishing between statistical significance and practical/clinical meaningfulness using statistical inference.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Michael

2014-03-01

Decisions about support for predictions of theories in light of data are made using statistical inference. The dominant approach in sport and exercise science is the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) significance-testing approach. When applied correctly it provides a reliable procedure for making dichotomous decisions for accepting or rejecting zero-effect null hypotheses with known and controlled long-run error rates. Type I and type II error rates must be specified in advance and the latter controlled by conducting an a priori sample size calculation. The N-P approach does not provide the probability of hypotheses or indicate the strength of support for hypotheses in light of data, yet many scientists believe it does. Outcomes of analyses allow conclusions only about the existence of non-zero effects, and provide no information about the likely size of true effects or their practical/clinical value. Bayesian inference can show how much support data provide for different hypotheses, and how personal convictions should be altered in light of data, but the approach is complicated by formulating probability distributions about prior subjective estimates of population effects. A pragmatic solution is magnitude-based inference, which allows scientists to estimate the true magnitude of population effects and how likely they are to exceed an effect magnitude of practical/clinical importance, thereby integrating elements of subjective Bayesian-style thinking. While this approach is gaining acceptance, progress might be hastened if scientists appreciate the shortcomings of traditional N-P null hypothesis significance testing.

A test for patterns of modularity in sequences of developmental events.

PubMed

Poe, Steven

2004-08-01

This study presents a statistical test for modularity in the context of relative timing of developmental events. The test assesses whether sets of developmental events show special phylogenetic conservation of rank order. The test statistic is the correlation coefficient of developmental ranks of the N events of the hypothesized module across taxa. The null distribution is obtained by taking correlation coefficients for randomly sampled sets of N events. This test was applied to two datasets, including one where phylogenetic information was taken into account. The events of limb development in two frog species were found to behave as a module.

Multilevel Factor Analysis by Model Segregation: New Applications for Robust Test Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schweig, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Measures of classroom environments have become central to policy efforts that assess school and teacher quality. This has sparked a wide interest in using multilevel factor analysis to test measurement hypotheses about classroom-level variables. One approach partitions the total covariance matrix and tests models separately on the…

BETTER STATISTICS FOR BETTER DECISIONS: REJECTING NULL HYPOTHESES STATISTICAL TESTS IN FAVOR OF REPLICATION STATISTICS

PubMed Central

SANABRIA, FEDERICO; KILLEEN, PETER R.

2008-01-01

Despite being under challenge for the past 50 years, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) remains dominant in the scientific field for want of viable alternatives. NHST, along with its significance level p, is inadequate for most of the uses to which it is put, a flaw that is of particular interest to educational practitioners who too often must use it to sanctify their research. In this article, we review the failure of NHST and propose prep, the probability of replicating an effect, as a more useful statistic for evaluating research and aiding practical decision making. PMID:19122766

PROUCL 4.0 SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

Statistical inference, including both estimation and hypotheses testing approaches, is routinely used to: estimate environmental parameters of interest, such as exposure point concentration (EPC) terms, not-to-exceed values, and background level threshold values (BTVs) for contam...

Biostatistics primer: part I.

PubMed

Overholser, Brian R; Sowinski, Kevin M

2007-12-01

Biostatistics is the application of statistics to biologic data. The field of statistics can be broken down into 2 fundamental parts: descriptive and inferential. Descriptive statistics are commonly used to categorize, display, and summarize data. Inferential statistics can be used to make predictions based on a sample obtained from a population or some large body of information. It is these inferences that are used to test specific research hypotheses. This 2-part review will outline important features of descriptive and inferential statistics as they apply to commonly conducted research studies in the biomedical literature. Part 1 in this issue will discuss fundamental topics of statistics and data analysis. Additionally, some of the most commonly used statistical tests found in the biomedical literature will be reviewed in Part 2 in the February 2008 issue.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Intraspecific Phylogeography: NCPA versus ABC

PubMed Central

Templeton, Alan R.

2009-01-01

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been used to test phylogeographic hypotheses. Multilocus NCPA tests null hypotheses, whereas ABC discriminates among a finite set of alternatives. The interpretive criteria of NCPA are explicit and allow complex models to be built from simple components. The interpretive criteria of ABC are ad hoc and require the specification of a complete phylogeographic model. The conclusions from ABC are often influenced by implicit assumptions arising from the many parameters needed to specify a complex model. These complex models confound many assumptions so that biological interpretations are difficult. Sampling error is accounted for in NCPA, but ABC ignores important sources of sampling error that creates pseudo-statistical power. NCPA generates the full sampling distribution of its statistics, but ABC only yields local probabilities, which in turn make it impossible to distinguish between a good fitting model, a non-informative model, and an over-determined model. Both NCPA and ABC use approximations, but convergences of the approximations used in NCPA are well defined whereas those in ABC are not. NCPA can analyze a large number of locations, but ABC cannot. Finally, the dimensionality of tested hypothesis is known in NCPA, but not for ABC. As a consequence, the “probabilities” generated by ABC are not true probabilities and are statistically non-interpretable. Accordingly, ABC should not be used for hypothesis testing, but simulation approaches are valuable when used in conjunction with NCPA or other methods that do not rely on highly parameterized models. PMID:19192182

The Relative Importance of Low Significance Level and High Power in Multiple Tests of Significance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westermann, Rainer; Hager, Willi

1983-01-01

Two psychological experiments--Anderson and Shanteau (1970), Berkowitz and LePage (1967)--are reanalyzed to present the problem of the relative importance of low Type 1 error probability and high power when answering a research question by testing several statistical hypotheses. (Author/PN)

An Exercise to Introduce Power

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seier, Edith; Liu, Yali

2013-01-01

In introductory statistics courses, the concept of power is usually presented in the context of testing hypotheses about the population mean. We instead propose an exercise that uses a binomial probability table to introduce the idea of power in the context of testing a population proportion. (Contains 2 tables, and 2 figures.)

Null but not void: considerations for hypothesis testing.

PubMed

Shaw, Pamela A; Proschan, Michael A

2013-01-30

Standard statistical theory teaches us that once the null and alternative hypotheses have been defined for a parameter, the choice of the statistical test is clear. Standard theory does not teach us how to choose the null or alternative hypothesis appropriate to the scientific question of interest. Neither does it tell us that in some cases, depending on which alternatives are realistic, we may want to define our null hypothesis differently. Problems in statistical practice are frequently not as pristinely summarized as the classic theory in our textbooks. In this article, we present examples in statistical hypothesis testing in which seemingly simple choices are in fact rich with nuance that, when given full consideration, make the choice of the right hypothesis test much less straightforward. Published 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Robustness of S1 statistic with Hodges-Lehmann for skewed distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahad, Nor Aishah; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Yin, Lee Ping

2016-10-01

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a common use parametric method to test the differences in means for more than two groups when the populations are normally distributed. ANOVA is highly inefficient under the influence of non- normal and heteroscedastic settings. When the assumptions are violated, researchers are looking for alternative such as Kruskal-Wallis under nonparametric or robust method. This study focused on flexible method, S1 statistic for comparing groups using median as the location estimator. S1 statistic was modified by substituting the median with Hodges-Lehmann and the default scale estimator with the variance of Hodges-Lehmann and MADn to produce two different test statistics for comparing groups. Bootstrap method was used for testing the hypotheses since the sampling distributions of these modified S1 statistics are unknown. The performance of the proposed statistic in terms of Type I error was measured and compared against the original S1 statistic, ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis. The propose procedures show improvement compared to the original statistic especially under extremely skewed distribution.

Ethnicity, Effort, Self-Efficacy, Worry, and Statistics Achievement in Malaysia: A Construct Validation of the State-Trait Motivation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Awang-Hashim, Rosa; O'Neil, Harold F., Jr.; Hocevar, Dennis

2002-01-01

The relations between motivational constructs, effort, self-efficacy and worry, and statistics achievement were investigated in a sample of 360 undergraduates in Malaysia. Both trait (cross-situational) and state (task-specific) measures of each construct were used to test a mediational trait (r) state (r) performance (TSP) model. As hypothesized,…

Testing the Job Demand-Control-Support model with anxiety and depression as outcomes: the Hordaland Health Study.

PubMed

Sanne, Bjarte; Mykletun, Arnstein; Dahl, Alv A; Moen, Bente E; Tell, Grethe S

2005-09-01

To test the strain/iso-strain, interaction and buffer hypotheses of the Job Demand-Control-Support model in relation to anxiety and depression. Five thousand five hundred and sixty-two workers with valid Demand-Control-Support Questionnaire (DCSQ) scores were examined with the sub-scales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale as outcomes. Multiple statistical methods were applied. The strain and iso-strain hypotheses were confirmed. Generally, additive and non-interaction effects were found between psychological demands, control and social support. The buffer hypotheses were refuted. Results from analyses testing different interaction operationalizations were complementary. High demands, low control and low support individually, but particularly combined, are risk factors for anxiety and depression. Support is the DCSQ index most strongly associated with anxiety and depression in women. Assessment of psychosocial work environment may identify workers at risk, and serve as a basis for job-redesign.

Précis of statistical significance: rationale, validity, and utility.

PubMed

Chow, S L

1998-04-01

The null-hypothesis significance-test procedure (NHSTP) is defended in the context of the theory-corroboration experiment, as well as the following contrasts: (a) substantive hypotheses versus statistical hypotheses, (b) theory corroboration versus statistical hypothesis testing, (c) theoretical inference versus statistical decision, (d) experiments versus nonexperimental studies, and (e) theory corroboration versus treatment assessment. The null hypothesis can be true because it is the hypothesis that errors are randomly distributed in data. Moreover, the null hypothesis is never used as a categorical proposition. Statistical significance means only that chance influences can be excluded as an explanation of data; it does not identify the nonchance factor responsible. The experimental conclusion is drawn with the inductive principle underlying the experimental design. A chain of deductive arguments gives rise to the theoretical conclusion via the experimental conclusion. The anomalous relationship between statistical significance and the effect size often used to criticize NHSTP is more apparent than real. The absolute size of the effect is not an index of evidential support for the substantive hypothesis. Nor is the effect size, by itself, informative as to the practical importance of the research result. Being a conditional probability, statistical power cannot be the a priori probability of statistical significance. The validity of statistical power is debatable because statistical significance is determined with a single sampling distribution of the test statistic based on H0, whereas it takes two distributions to represent statistical power or effect size. Sample size should not be determined in the mechanical manner envisaged in power analysis. It is inappropriate to criticize NHSTP for nonstatistical reasons. At the same time, neither effect size, nor confidence interval estimate, nor posterior probability can be used to exclude chance as an explanation of data. Neither can any of them fulfill the nonstatistical functions expected of them by critics.

Co-Educational Tutorial Classes and Their Significance on Gendered Test Scores of Wollo University Students: A Before-After Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gidey, Mu'uz

2015-01-01

This action research is carried out in a practical class room setting to devise an innovative way of administering tutorial classes to improve students' learning competence with particular reference to gendered test scores. A before-after test score analyses of mean and standard deviations along with t-statistical tests of hypotheses of second…

An MDI Model and an Algorithm for Composite Hypotheses Testing and Estimation in Marketing

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

Other, more general, developments in statistics and mathematical programming (duality) theories and methods are also briefly discussed for their possible bearing on further uses in marketing research and management. (Author)

ProUCL Version 4.0 Technical Guide

EPA Science Inventory

Statistical inference, including both estimation and hypotheses testing approaches, is routinely used to: estimate environmental parameters of interest, such as exposure point concentration (EPC) terms, not-to-exceed values, and background level threshold values (BTVs) for contam...

Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Machingambi, Zadzisai

2017-01-01

The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

Determinants of Effective and Ineffective Supervision in Schools: Teachers Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oghuvbu, Enamiroro Patrick

2007-01-01

This study identified determinants of effective and ineffective supervision in schools. A forty-two items questionnaire was administered on 1150 teachers used in this study. Two research questions were raised and answered using percentages. Two null hypotheses were formulated and tested using spearman rho and z-test statistics at 0.05 level of…

An Independent Filter for Gene Set Testing Based on Spectral Enrichment.

PubMed

Frost, H Robert; Li, Zhigang; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Moore, Jason H

2015-01-01

Gene set testing has become an indispensable tool for the analysis of high-dimensional genomic data. An important motivation for testing gene sets, rather than individual genomic variables, is to improve statistical power by reducing the number of tested hypotheses. Given the dramatic growth in common gene set collections, however, testing is often performed with nearly as many gene sets as underlying genomic variables. To address the challenge to statistical power posed by large gene set collections, we have developed spectral gene set filtering (SGSF), a novel technique for independent filtering of gene set collections prior to gene set testing. The SGSF method uses as a filter statistic the p-value measuring the statistical significance of the association between each gene set and the sample principal components (PCs), taking into account the significance of the associated eigenvalues. Because this filter statistic is independent of standard gene set test statistics under the null hypothesis but dependent under the alternative, the proportion of enriched gene sets is increased without impacting the type I error rate. As shown using simulated and real gene expression data, the SGSF algorithm accurately filters gene sets unrelated to the experimental outcome resulting in significantly increased gene set testing power.

Combination of statistical and physically based methods to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.; Lajas, Sara; Melo, Raquel

2017-07-01

Approaches used to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistical or physically based methods. The former are based on the assumption that the same causes are more likely to produce the same effects, whereas the latter are based on the comparison between forces which tend to promote movement along the slope and the counteracting forces that are resistant to motion. Within this general framework, this work tests two hypotheses: (i) although conceptually and methodologically distinct, the statistical and deterministic methods generate similar shallow slide susceptibility results regarding the model's predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the combination of shallow slide susceptibility maps obtained with statistical and physically based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow slide occurrence. These hypotheses were tested at a small test site (13.9 km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal), using a statistical method (the information value method, IV) and a physically based method (the infinite slope method, IS). The landslide susceptibility maps produced with the statistical and deterministic methods were combined into a new landslide susceptibility map. The latter was based on a set of integration rules defined by the cross tabulation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency tables. The results demonstrate a higher predictive capacity of the new shallow slide susceptibility map, which combines the independent results obtained with statistical and physically based models. Moreover, the combination of the two models allowed the identification of areas where the results of the information value and the infinite slope methods are contradictory. Thus, these areas were classified as uncertain and deserve additional investigation at a more detailed scale.

Near-exact distributions for the block equicorrelation and equivariance likelihood ratio test statistic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Carlos A.; Marques, Filipe J.

2013-09-01

In this paper the authors combine the equicorrelation and equivariance test introduced by Wilks [13] with the likelihood ratio test (l.r.t.) for independence of groups of variables to obtain the l.r.t. of block equicorrelation and equivariance. This test or its single block version may find applications in many areas as in psychology, education, medicine, genetics and they are important "in many tests of multivariate analysis, e.g. in MANOVA, Profile Analysis, Growth Curve analysis, etc" [12, 9]. By decomposing the overall hypothesis into the hypotheses of independence of groups of variables and the hypothesis of equicorrelation and equivariance we are able to obtain the expressions for the overall l.r.t. statistic and its moments. From these we obtain a suitable factorization of the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the l.r.t. statistic, which enables us to develop highly manageable and precise near-exact distributions for the test statistic.

Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steidl, R.J.; Hayes, J.P.

1997-01-01

Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be a??0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to be reported, then the I?-level, effect sizes, and sample sizes used in calculations must also be reported.

Global, Local, and Graphical Person-Fit Analysis Using Person-Response Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emons, Wilco H. M.; Sijtsma, Klaas; Meijer, Rob R.

2005-01-01

Person-fit statistics test whether the likelihood of a respondent's complete vector of item scores on a test is low given the hypothesized item response theory model. This binary information may be insufficient for diagnosing the cause of a misfitting item-score vector. The authors propose a comprehensive methodology for person-fit analysis in the…

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting.

PubMed

Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F

2010-07-19

A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression-based alternative to the spatial scan statistic. Across all hypotheses examined in this research, the GAM methods had competing or greater power estimates and sensitivities exceeding that of the spatial scan statistic.

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression-based alternative to the spatial scan statistic. Across all hypotheses examined in this research, the GAM methods had competing or greater power estimates and sensitivities exceeding that of the spatial scan statistic. PMID:20642827

Research on the Hotel Image Based on the Detail Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ban; Shenghua, Zheng; He, Yi

Detail service management, initially developed as marketing programs to enhance customer loyalty, has now become an important part of customer relation strategy. This paper analyzes the critical factors of detail service and its influence on the hotel image. We establish the theoretical model of influencing factors on hotel image and propose corresponding hypotheses. We use applying statistical method to test and verify the above-mentioned hypotheses. This paper provides a foundation for further study of detail service design and planning issues.

Classification image analysis: estimation and statistical inference for two-alternative forced-choice experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2002-01-01

We consider estimation and statistical hypothesis testing on classification images obtained from the two-alternative forced-choice experimental paradigm. We begin with a probabilistic model of task performance for simple forced-choice detection and discrimination tasks. Particular attention is paid to general linear filter models because these models lead to a direct interpretation of the classification image as an estimate of the filter weights. We then describe an estimation procedure for obtaining classification images from observer data. A number of statistical tests are presented for testing various hypotheses from classification images based on some more compact set of features derived from them. As an example of how the methods we describe can be used, we present a case study investigating detection of a Gaussian bump profile.

SPSS and SAS programs for comparing Pearson correlations and OLS regression coefficients.

PubMed

Weaver, Bruce; Wuensch, Karl L

2013-09-01

Several procedures that use summary data to test hypotheses about Pearson correlations and ordinary least squares regression coefficients have been described in various books and articles. To our knowledge, however, no single resource describes all of the most common tests. Furthermore, many of these tests have not yet been implemented in popular statistical software packages such as SPSS and SAS. In this article, we describe all of the most common tests and provide SPSS and SAS programs to perform them. When they are applicable, our code also computes 100 × (1 - α)% confidence intervals corresponding to the tests. For testing hypotheses about independent regression coefficients, we demonstrate one method that uses summary data and another that uses raw data (i.e., Potthoff analysis). When the raw data are available, the latter method is preferred, because use of summary data entails some loss of precision due to rounding.

Which level of evidence does the US National Toxicology Program provide? Statistical considerations using the Technical Report 578 on Ginkgo biloba as an example.

PubMed

Gaus, Wilhelm

2014-09-02

The US National Toxicology Program (NTP) is assessed by a statistician. In the NTP-program groups of rodents are fed for a certain period of time with different doses of the substance that is being investigated. Then the animals are sacrificed and all organs are examined pathologically. Such an investigation facilitates many statistical tests. Technical Report TR 578 on Ginkgo biloba is used as an example. More than 4800 statistical tests are possible with the investigations performed. Due to a thought experiment we expect >240 false significant tests. In actuality, 209 significant pathological findings were reported. The readers of Toxicology Letters should carefully distinguish between confirmative and explorative statistics. A confirmative interpretation of a significant test rejects the null-hypothesis and delivers "statistical proof". It is only allowed if (i) a precise hypothesis was established independently from the data used for the test and (ii) the computed p-values are adjusted for multiple testing if more than one test was performed. Otherwise an explorative interpretation generates a hypothesis. We conclude that NTP-reports - including TR 578 on Ginkgo biloba - deliver explorative statistics, i.e. they generate hypotheses, but do not prove them. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Testing Hypotheses on Risk Factors for Scientific Misconduct via Matched-Control Analysis of Papers Containing Problematic Image Duplications.

PubMed

Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Fang, Ferric C; Casadevall, Arturo; Bik, Elisabeth M

2018-02-19

It is commonly hypothesized that scientists are more likely to engage in data falsification and fabrication when they are subject to pressures to publish, when they are not restrained by forms of social control, when they work in countries lacking policies to tackle scientific misconduct, and when they are male. Evidence to test these hypotheses, however, is inconclusive due to the difficulties of obtaining unbiased data. Here we report a pre-registered test of these four hypotheses, conducted on papers that were identified in a previous study as containing problematic image duplications through a systematic screening of the journal PLoS ONE. Image duplications were classified into three categories based on their complexity, with category 1 being most likely to reflect unintentional error and category 3 being most likely to reflect intentional fabrication. We tested multiple parameters connected to the hypotheses above with a matched-control paradigm, by collecting two controls for each paper containing duplications. Category 1 duplications were mostly not associated with any of the parameters tested, as was predicted based on the assumption that these duplications were mostly not due to misconduct. Categories 2 and 3, however, exhibited numerous statistically significant associations. Results of univariable and multivariable analyses support the hypotheses that academic culture, peer control, cash-based publication incentives and national misconduct policies might affect scientific integrity. No clear support was found for the "pressures to publish" hypothesis. Female authors were found to be equally likely to publish duplicated images compared to males. Country-level parameters generally exhibited stronger effects than individual-level parameters, because developing countries were significantly more likely to produce problematic image duplications. This suggests that promoting good research practices in all countries should be a priority for the international research integrity agenda.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Proceedings of the Conference on the Design of Experiments in Army Research Development and Testing (35th) Held in Monterey California, California on 18-20 October 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

Statistics. John Wiley and Sons , 1980, p. 111. 7. Hanson, D. L. and Koopmans, Lo H.t Tolerance Limits for the Class of Distributions With Increasing...Am. Statis° Assoc., vol. 82, 1987, p. 918. 9. Lehmann, E0 Lot Testing Statistical Hypotheses. John Wiley and Sons , 1959, pp. 274-275. 10. Lemon, G. H...Surfaces," John Wily & Sons , Inc., New York. 3. Box, G. E. P. and Wilson, K. B. (1951), "On the Experimental Attainment of Optimum Conditions," Journal of

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

Comparison of hypertabastic survival model with other unimodal hazard rate functions using a goodness-of-fit test.

PubMed

Tahir, M Ramzan; Tran, Quang X; Nikulin, Mikhail S

2017-05-30

We studied the problem of testing a hypothesized distribution in survival regression models when the data is right censored and survival times are influenced by covariates. A modified chi-squared type test, known as Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic, is applied for the comparison of accelerated failure time models. This statistic is used to test the goodness-of-fit for hypertabastic survival model and four other unimodal hazard rate functions. The results of simulation study showed that the hypertabastic distribution can be used as an alternative to log-logistic and log-normal distribution. In statistical modeling, because of its flexible shape of hazard functions, this distribution can also be used as a competitor of Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions. The results for the real data application are shown. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS OF HYPOTHESES ON MULTIVARIATE POPULATIONS, VOLUME II, TEST OF HYPOTHESIS--STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF EDUCATIONAL CRITERIA. PART 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SAW, J.G.

THIS PAPER DEALS WITH SOME TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DATA. THE TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED IS THAT WHICH THE STATISTICIAN CAN ANSWER IN THE NEGATIVE OR AFFIRMATIVE. THE DOOLITTLE METHOD MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO EVALUATE THE DETERMINANT OF A MATRIX OF HIGH ORDER, TO SOLVE A MATRIX EQUATION, OR TO…

Building Intuitions about Statistical Inference Based on Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane; Chance, Beth

2012-01-01

Formal inference, which makes theoretical assumptions about distributions and applies hypothesis testing procedures with null and alternative hypotheses, is notoriously difficult for tertiary students to master. The debate about whether this content should appear in Years 11 and 12 of the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" has gone on…

The distribution of P-values in medical research articles suggested selective reporting associated with statistical significance.

PubMed

Perneger, Thomas V; Combescure, Christophe

2017-07-01

Published P-values provide a window into the global enterprise of medical research. The aim of this study was to use the distribution of published P-values to estimate the relative frequencies of null and alternative hypotheses and to seek irregularities suggestive of publication bias. This cross-sectional study included P-values published in 120 medical research articles in 2016 (30 each from the BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine). The observed distribution of P-values was compared with expected distributions under the null hypothesis (i.e., uniform between 0 and 1) and the alternative hypothesis (strictly decreasing from 0 to 1). P-values were categorized according to conventional levels of statistical significance and in one-percent intervals. Among 4,158 recorded P-values, 26.1% were highly significant (P < 0.001), 9.1% were moderately significant (P ≥ 0.001 to < 0.01), 11.7% were weakly significant (P ≥ 0.01 to < 0.05), and 53.2% were nonsignificant (P ≥ 0.05). We noted three irregularities: (1) high proportion of P-values <0.001, especially in observational studies, (2) excess of P-values equal to 1, and (3) about twice as many P-values less than 0.05 compared with those more than 0.05. The latter finding was seen in both randomized trials and observational studies, and in most types of analyses, excepting heterogeneity tests and interaction tests. Under plausible assumptions, we estimate that about half of the tested hypotheses were null and the other half were alternative. This analysis suggests that statistical tests published in medical journals are not a random sample of null and alternative hypotheses but that selective reporting is prevalent. In particular, significant results are about twice as likely to be reported as nonsignificant results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distinguishing Positive Selection From Neutral Evolution: Boosting the Performance of Summary Statistics

PubMed Central

Lin, Kao; Li, Haipeng; Schlötterer, Christian; Futschik, Andreas

2011-01-01

Summary statistics are widely used in population genetics, but they suffer from the drawback that no simple sufficient summary statistic exists, which captures all information required to distinguish different evolutionary hypotheses. Here, we apply boosting, a recent statistical method that combines simple classification rules to maximize their joint predictive performance. We show that our implementation of boosting has a high power to detect selective sweeps. Demographic events, such as bottlenecks, do not result in a large excess of false positives. A comparison to other neutrality tests shows that our boosting implementation performs well compared to other neutrality tests. Furthermore, we evaluated the relative contribution of different summary statistics to the identification of selection and found that for recent sweeps integrated haplotype homozygosity is very informative whereas older sweeps are better detected by Tajima's π. Overall, Watterson's θ was found to contribute the most information for distinguishing between bottlenecks and selection. PMID:21041556

Examining the Internal Validity and Statistical Precision of the Comparative Interrupted Time Series Design by Comparison with a Randomized Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St.Clair, Travis; Cook, Thomas D.; Hallberg, Kelly

2014-01-01

Although evaluators often use an interrupted time series (ITS) design to test hypotheses about program effects, there are few empirical tests of the design's validity. We take a randomized experiment on an educational topic and compare its effects to those from a comparative ITS (CITS) design that uses the same treatment group as the experiment…

The Use of Public Enlightenment Campaign Strategy and School Disciplinary Measures in the Management of Cultism in Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Omemu, Felix

2015-01-01

The study investigated the perceptions of staff and students on the use of school disciplinary measures and public awareness campaign strategy in the management of cultism in tertiary institutions in Nigeria. The study is guided by two hypotheses tested using the t-test statistics. An instrument containing 10 items properly validated was used in…

Reporting Practices and Use of Quantitative Methods in Canadian Journal Articles in Psychology.

PubMed

Counsell, Alyssa; Harlow, Lisa L

2017-05-01

With recent focus on the state of research in psychology, it is essential to assess the nature of the statistical methods and analyses used and reported by psychological researchers. To that end, we investigated the prevalence of different statistical procedures and the nature of statistical reporting practices in recent articles from the four major Canadian psychology journals. The majority of authors evaluated their research hypotheses through the use of analysis of variance (ANOVA), t -tests, and multiple regression. Multivariate approaches were less common. Null hypothesis significance testing remains a popular strategy, but the majority of authors reported a standardized or unstandardized effect size measure alongside their significance test results. Confidence intervals on effect sizes were infrequently employed. Many authors provided minimal details about their statistical analyses and less than a third of the articles presented on data complications such as missing data and violations of statistical assumptions. Strengths of and areas needing improvement for reporting quantitative results are highlighted. The paper concludes with recommendations for how researchers and reviewers can improve comprehension and transparency in statistical reporting.

Robust regression for large-scale neuroimaging studies.

PubMed

Fritsch, Virgile; Da Mota, Benoit; Loth, Eva; Varoquaux, Gaël; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Brühl, Rüdiger; Butzek, Brigitte; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Lemaitre, Hervé; Mann, Karl; Nees, Frauke; Paus, Tomas; Schad, Daniel J; Schümann, Gunter; Frouin, Vincent; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Thirion, Bertrand

2015-05-01

Multi-subject datasets used in neuroimaging group studies have a complex structure, as they exhibit non-stationary statistical properties across regions and display various artifacts. While studies with small sample sizes can rarely be shown to deviate from standard hypotheses (such as the normality of the residuals) due to the poor sensitivity of normality tests with low degrees of freedom, large-scale studies (e.g. >100 subjects) exhibit more obvious deviations from these hypotheses and call for more refined models for statistical inference. Here, we demonstrate the benefits of robust regression as a tool for analyzing large neuroimaging cohorts. First, we use an analytic test based on robust parameter estimates; based on simulations, this procedure is shown to provide an accurate statistical control without resorting to permutations. Second, we show that robust regression yields more detections than standard algorithms using as an example an imaging genetics study with 392 subjects. Third, we show that robust regression can avoid false positives in a large-scale analysis of brain-behavior relationships with over 1500 subjects. Finally we embed robust regression in the Randomized Parcellation Based Inference (RPBI) method and demonstrate that this combination further improves the sensitivity of tests carried out across the whole brain. Altogether, our results show that robust procedures provide important advantages in large-scale neuroimaging group studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

PubMed

Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

2018-05-17

This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Information Input and Performance in Small Decision Making Groups.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryland, Edwin Holman

It was hypothesized that increases in the amount and specificity of information furnished to a discussion group would facilitate group decision making and improve other aspects of group and individual performance. Procedures in testing these assumptions included varying the amounts of statistics, examples, testimony, and augmented information…

Effects of the Family Environment: Gene-Environment Interaction and Passive Gene-Environment Correlation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Thomas S.; Jaffee, Sara R.

2008-01-01

The classical twin study provides a useful resource for testing hypotheses about how the family environment influences children's development, including how genes can influence sensitivity to environmental effects. However, existing statistical models do not account for the possibility that children can inherit exposure to family environments…

Influences of environment and disturbance on forest patterns in coastal Oregon watersheds.

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Thomas A. Spies

2001-01-01

Modern ecology often emphasizes the distinction between traditional theories of stable, environmentally structured communities and a new paradigm of disturbance driven, nonequilibrium dynamics. However, multiple hypotheses for observed vegetation patterns have seldom been explicitly tested. We used multivariate statistics and variation partitioning methods to assess...

Preliminary testing of flow-ecology hypotheses developed for the GCP LCC region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewer, Shannon K.; Davis, Mary

2014-01-01

The Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration (ELOHA) framework calls for the development of flow-ecology hypotheses to support protection of the flow regime from ecologically harmful alteration due to human activities. As part of a larger instream flow project for the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCP LCC), regional flow-ecology hypotheses were developed for fish, mussels, birds, and riparian vegetation (Davis and Brewer 20141). The objective of this study was to assess the usefulness of existing ecological and hydrological data to test these hypotheses or others that may be developed in the future. Several databases related to biological collections and hydrologic data from Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana were compiled. State fish-community data from Oklahoma and Louisiana were summarized and paired with existing USGS gage data having at least a 40-year period of record that could be separated into reference and current conditions for comparison. The objective of this study was not to conduct exhaustive analyses of these data, the hypotheses, or analyses interpretation, but rather to use these data to determine if existing data were adequate to statistically test the regional flow-ecology hypotheses. The regional flow-ecology hypotheses were developed for the GCP LCC by a committee chaired by Shannon Brewer and Mary Davis (Davis and Brewer 2014). Existing data were useful for informing the hypotheses and suggest support for some hypotheses, but also highlight the need for additional testing and development as some results contradicted hypotheses. Results presented here suggest existing data are adequate to support some flow-ecology hypotheses; however, lack of sampling effort reported with the fish collections and the need for ecoregion-specific analyses suggest more data would be beneficial to analyses in some ecoregions. Additional fish sampling data from Texas and Louisiana will be available for future analyses and may ameliorate some of the data concerns and improve hypothesis interpretation. If the regional hydrologic model currently under development by the U.S. Geological Survey for the South-Central Climate Science Center is improved to produce daily hydrographs, it will enable use of fish data at ungaged locations. In future efforts, exhaustive analyses using these data, in addition to the development of more complex multivariate hypotheses, would be beneficial to understanding data gaps, particularly as relevant to species of conservation concern.

Suggestions for presenting the results of data analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Link, William A.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

2001-01-01

We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the presentation of results under these alternative procedures and on nontesting aspects of classical frequentists methods of statistical analysis. Null hypothesis testing has come under intense criticism. We recommend less reporting of the results of statistical tests of null hypotheses in cases where the null is surely false anyway, or where the null hypothesis is of little interest to science or management.

Admixture, Population Structure, and F-Statistics.

PubMed

Peter, Benjamin M

2016-04-01

Many questions about human genetic history can be addressed by examining the patterns of shared genetic variation between sets of populations. A useful methodological framework for this purpose isF-statistics that measure shared genetic drift between sets of two, three, and four populations and can be used to test simple and complex hypotheses about admixture between populations. This article provides context from phylogenetic and population genetic theory. I review how F-statistics can be interpreted as branch lengths or paths and derive new interpretations, using coalescent theory. I further show that the admixture tests can be interpreted as testing general properties of phylogenies, allowing extension of some ideas applications to arbitrary phylogenetic trees. The new results are used to investigate the behavior of the statistics under different models of population structure and show how population substructure complicates inference. The results lead to simplified estimators in many cases, and I recommend to replace F3 with the average number of pairwise differences for estimating population divergence. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

A more powerful test based on ratio distribution for retention noninferiority hypothesis.

PubMed

Deng, Ling; Chen, Gang

2013-03-11

Rothmann et al. ( 2003 ) proposed a method for the statistical inference of fraction retention noninferiority (NI) hypothesis. A fraction retention hypothesis is defined as a ratio of the new treatment effect verse the control effect in the context of a time to event endpoint. One of the major concerns using this method in the design of an NI trial is that with a limited sample size, the power of the study is usually very low. This makes an NI trial not applicable particularly when using time to event endpoint. To improve power, Wang et al. ( 2006 ) proposed a ratio test based on asymptotic normality theory. Under a strong assumption (equal variance of the NI test statistic under null and alternative hypotheses), the sample size using Wang's test was much smaller than that using Rothmann's test. However, in practice, the assumption of equal variance is generally questionable for an NI trial design. This assumption is removed in the ratio test proposed in this article, which is derived directly from a Cauchy-like ratio distribution. In addition, using this method, the fundamental assumption used in Rothmann's test, that the observed control effect is always positive, that is, the observed hazard ratio for placebo over the control is greater than 1, is no longer necessary. Without assuming equal variance under null and alternative hypotheses, the sample size required for an NI trial can be significantly reduced if using the proposed ratio test for a fraction retention NI hypothesis.

Testing multiple statistical hypotheses resulted in spurious associations: a study of astrological signs and health.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Juurlink, David N; Hux, Janet E

2006-09-01

To illustrate how multiple hypotheses testing can produce associations with no clinical plausibility. We conducted a study of all 10,674,945 residents of Ontario aged between 18 and 100 years in 2000. Residents were randomly assigned to equally sized derivation and validation cohorts and classified according to their astrological sign. Using the derivation cohort, we searched through 223 of the most common diagnoses for hospitalization until we identified two for which subjects born under one astrological sign had a significantly higher probability of hospitalization compared to subjects born under the remaining signs combined (P<0.05). We tested these 24 associations in the independent validation cohort. Residents born under Leo had a higher probability of gastrointestinal hemorrhage (P=0.0447), while Sagittarians had a higher probability of humerus fracture (P=0.0123) compared to all other signs combined. After adjusting the significance level to account for multiple comparisons, none of the identified associations remained significant in either the derivation or validation cohort. Our analyses illustrate how the testing of multiple, non-prespecified hypotheses increases the likelihood of detecting implausible associations. Our findings have important implications for the analysis and interpretation of clinical studies.

Analyzing Data from a Pretest-Posttest Control Group Design: The Importance of Statistical Assumptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda; Nimon, Kim; Hammack-Brown, Bryn

2016-01-01

Purpose: Among the gold standards in human resource development (HRD) research are studies that test theoretically developed hypotheses and use experimental designs. A somewhat typical experimental design would involve collecting pretest and posttest data on individuals assigned to a control or experimental group. Data from such a design that…

Faculty Status, Longevity, and Salaries among Librarians in LIBRAS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauer, Jonathan D.; And Others

A survey of librarians in LIBRAS, a consortium comprising 16 Chicago-area liberal arts college libraries, tested two hypotheses: (1) the salary level of the group with faculty status is significantly greater than that of the group without faculty status; and (2) there is a statistically significant correlation between the amount of professional…

Intimate Homicide between Asians and Non-Asians: The Impact of Community Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Bohsiu

2009-01-01

This study tests two competing hypotheses regarding the social structural dynamics of intimate homicide: backlash versus collective efficacy. This study also examines the role of race in how social factors specified in each hypothesis affect intimate homicide. Data are from the California Vital Statistics and Homicide Data, 1990-1999. Results from…

Training, Innovation and Business Performance: An Analysis of the Business Longitudinal Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dockery, A. Michael

This paper uses the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Business Longitudinal Survey to explore relationships between training, innovation, and firm performance for Australian businesses with less than 200 employees. The longitudinal nature of the data is used to test various hypotheses about the nature of the link between training, business changes,…

Visualization of Differences in Data Measuring Mathematical Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zoubek, Lukas; Burda, Michal

2009-01-01

Identification of significant differences in sets of data is a common task of data mining. This paper describes a novel visualization technique that allows the user to interactively explore and analyze differences in mean values of analyzed attributes. Statistical tests of hypotheses are used to identify the significant differences and the results…

An astronomer's guide to period searching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2003-03-01

We concentrate on analysis of unevenly sampled time series, interrupted by periodic gaps, as often encountered in astronomy. While some of our conclusions may appear surprising, all are based on classical statistical principles of Fisher & successors. Except for discussion of the resolution issues, it is best for the reader to forget temporarily about Fourier transforms and to concentrate on problems of fitting of a time series with a model curve. According to their statistical content we divide the issues into several sections, consisting of: (ii) statistical numerical aspects of model fitting, (iii) evaluation of fitted models as hypotheses testing, (iv) the role of the orthogonal models in signal detection (v) conditions for equivalence of periodograms (vi) rating sensitivity by test power. An experienced observer working with individual objects would benefit little from formalized statistical approach. However, we demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in evaluation of performance of periodograms and in quantitative design of large variability surveys.

Analysis of Feature Intervisibility and Cumulative Visibility Using GIS, Bayesian and Spatial Statistics: A Study from the Mandara Mountains, Northern Cameroon

PubMed Central

Wright, David K.; MacEachern, Scott; Lee, Jaeyong

2014-01-01

The locations of diy-geδ-bay (DGB) sites in the Mandara Mountains, northern Cameroon are hypothesized to occur as a function of their ability to see and be seen from points on the surrounding landscape. A series of geostatistical, two-way and Bayesian logistic regression analyses were performed to test two hypotheses related to the intervisibility of the sites to one another and their visual prominence on the landscape. We determine that the intervisibility of the sites to one another is highly statistically significant when compared to 10 stratified-random permutations of DGB sites. Bayesian logistic regression additionally demonstrates that the visibility of the sites to points on the surrounding landscape is statistically significant. The location of sites appears to have also been selected on the basis of lower slope than random permutations of sites. Using statistical measures, many of which are not commonly employed in archaeological research, to evaluate aspects of visibility on the landscape, we conclude that the placement of DGB sites improved their conspicuousness for enhanced ritual, social cooperation and/or competition purposes. PMID:25383883

Functional morphology of the bovid astragalus in relation to habitat: controlling phylogenetic signal in ecomorphology.

PubMed

Barr, W Andrew

2014-11-01

Bovid astragali are one of the most commonly preserved bones in the fossil record. Accordingly, astragali are an important target for studies seeking to predict the habitat preferences of fossil bovids based on bony anatomy. However, previous work has not tested functional hypotheses linking astragalar morphology with habitat while controlling for body size and phylogenetic signal. This article presents a functional framework relating the morphology of the bovid astragalus to habitat-specific locomotor ecology and tests four hypotheses emanating from this framework. Highly cursorial bovids living in structurally open habitats are hypothesized to differ from their less cursorial closed-habitat dwelling relatives in having (1) relatively short astragali to maintain rotational speed throughout the camming motion of the rotating astragalus, (2) a greater range of angular excursion at the hock, (3) relatively larger joint surface areas, and (4) a more pronounced "spline-and-groove" morphology promoting lateral joint stability. A diverse sample of 181 astragali from 50 extant species was scanned using a Next Engine laser scanner. Species were assigned to one of four habitat categories based on the published ecological literature. A series of 11 linear measurements and three joint surface areas were measured on each astragalus. A geometric mean body size proxy was used to size-correct the measurement data. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) was used to test for differences between habitat categories while controlling for body size differences and phylogenetic signal. Statistically significant PGLS results support Hypotheses 1 and 2 (which are not mutually exclusive) as well as Hypothesis 3. No support was found for Hypothesis 4. These findings confirm that the morphology of the bovid astragalus is related to habitat-specific locomotor ecology, and that this relationship is statistically significant after controlling for body size and phylogeny. Thus, this study validates the use of this bone as an ecomorphological indicator. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Development of Rhythm at the Age of 6-11 Years: Non-Pitch Rhythmic Improvisation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paananen, Pirkko

2006-01-01

In the statistical and transcriptional analyses reported in this exploratory study, original rhythms of 6-11-year-old children (N=36) were examined. The hypotheses were based on a new model of musical development, and tested empirically using non-pitch rhythmic improvisation in a MIDI-environment. Several representational types were found in…

Comment on "Social Contagion, Adolescent Sexual Behavior, and Pregnancy: A Nonlinear Dynamic EMOSA Model."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoolmiller, Mike

1998-01-01

Examines the Rodgers, Rowe, and Buster (1998) epidemic model of the onset of social activities for adolescent sexuality. Maintains that its strengths include its theoretical potential to generate new hypotheses for further testing at the individual level. Asserts that its limitations include the lack of a well-developed statistical framework and…

Novel statistical tools for management of public databases facilitate community-wide replicability and control of false discovery.

PubMed

Rosset, Saharon; Aharoni, Ehud; Neuvirth, Hani

2014-07-01

Issues of publication bias, lack of replicability, and false discovery have long plagued the genetics community. Proper utilization of public and shared data resources presents an opportunity to ameliorate these problems. We present an approach to public database management that we term Quality Preserving Database (QPD). It enables perpetual use of the database for testing statistical hypotheses while controlling false discovery and avoiding publication bias on the one hand, and maintaining testing power on the other hand. We demonstrate it on a use case of a replication server for GWAS findings, underlining its practical utility. We argue that a shift to using QPD in managing current and future biological databases will significantly enhance the community's ability to make efficient and statistically sound use of the available data resources. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Statistical process control in nursing research.

PubMed

Polit, Denise F; Chaboyer, Wendy

2012-02-01

In intervention studies in which randomization to groups is not possible, researchers typically use quasi-experimental designs. Time series designs are strong quasi-experimental designs but are seldom used, perhaps because of technical and analytic hurdles. Statistical process control (SPC) is an alternative analytic approach to testing hypotheses about intervention effects using data collected over time. SPC, like traditional statistical methods, is a tool for understanding variation and involves the construction of control charts that distinguish between normal, random fluctuations (common cause variation), and statistically significant special cause variation that can result from an innovation. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of SPC and to illustrate its use in a study of a nursing practice improvement intervention. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk analysis in cohort studies with heterogeneous strata. A global chi2-test for dose-response relationship, generalizing the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.

PubMed

Ahlborn, W; Tuz, H J; Uberla, K

1990-03-01

In cohort studies the Mantel-Haenszel estimator ORMH is computed from sample data and is used as a point estimator of relative risk. Test-based confidence intervals are estimated with the help of the asymptotic chi-squared distributed MH-statistic chi 2MHS. The Mantel-extension-chi-squared is used as a test statistic for a dose-response relationship. Both test statistics--the Mantel-Haenszel-chi as well as the Mantel-extension-chi--assume homogeneity of risk across strata, which is rarely present. Also an extended nonparametric statistic, proposed by Terpstra, which is based on the Mann-Whitney-statistics assumes homogeneity of risk across strata. We have earlier defined four risk measures RRkj (k = 1,2,...,4) in the population and considered their estimates and the corresponding asymptotic distributions. In order to overcome the homogeneity assumption we use the delta-method to get "test-based" confidence intervals. Because the four risk measures RRkj are presented as functions of four weights gik we give, consequently, the asymptotic variances of these risk estimators also as functions of the weights gik in a closed form. Approximations to these variances are given. For testing a dose-response relationship we propose a new class of chi 2(1)-distributed global measures Gk and the corresponding global chi 2-test. In contrast to the Mantel-extension-chi homogeneity of risk across strata must not be assumed. These global test statistics are of the Wald type for composite hypotheses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Using eye tracking to test for individual differences in attention to attractive faces

PubMed Central

Valuch, Christian; Pflüger, Lena S.; Wallner, Bernard; Laeng, Bruno; Ansorge, Ulrich

2015-01-01

We assessed individual differences in visual attention toward faces in relation to their attractiveness via saccadic reaction times. Motivated by the aim to understand individual differences in attention to faces, we tested three hypotheses: (a) Attractive faces hold or capture attention more effectively than less attractive faces; (b) men show a stronger bias toward attractive opposite-sex faces than women; and (c) blue-eyed men show a stronger bias toward blue-eyed than brown-eyed feminine faces. The latter test was included because prior research suggested a high effect size. Our data supported hypotheses (a) and (b) but not (c). By conducting separate tests for disengagement of attention and attention capture, we found that individual differences exist at distinct stages of attentional processing but these differences are of varying robustness and importance. In our conclusion, we also advocate the use of linear mixed effects models as the most appropriate statistical approach for studying inter-individual differences in visual attention with naturalistic stimuli. PMID:25698993

Using eye tracking to test for individual differences in attention to attractive faces.

PubMed

Valuch, Christian; Pflüger, Lena S; Wallner, Bernard; Laeng, Bruno; Ansorge, Ulrich

2015-01-01

We assessed individual differences in visual attention toward faces in relation to their attractiveness via saccadic reaction times. Motivated by the aim to understand individual differences in attention to faces, we tested three hypotheses: (a) Attractive faces hold or capture attention more effectively than less attractive faces; (b) men show a stronger bias toward attractive opposite-sex faces than women; and (c) blue-eyed men show a stronger bias toward blue-eyed than brown-eyed feminine faces. The latter test was included because prior research suggested a high effect size. Our data supported hypotheses (a) and (b) but not (c). By conducting separate tests for disengagement of attention and attention capture, we found that individual differences exist at distinct stages of attentional processing but these differences are of varying robustness and importance. In our conclusion, we also advocate the use of linear mixed effects models as the most appropriate statistical approach for studying inter-individual differences in visual attention with naturalistic stimuli.

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music.

PubMed

Miles, Scott A; Rosen, David S; Grzywacz, Norberto M

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of "surprise." This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments.

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Harmonic Surprise and Preference in Popular Music

PubMed Central

Miles, Scott A.; Rosen, David S.; Grzywacz, Norberto M.

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that some musical pieces may preferentially activate reward centers in the brain. Less is known, however, about the structural aspects of music that are associated with this activation. Based on the music cognition literature, we propose two hypotheses for why some musical pieces are preferred over others. The first, the Absolute-Surprise Hypothesis, states that unexpected events in music directly lead to pleasure. The second, the Contrastive-Surprise Hypothesis, proposes that the juxtaposition of unexpected events and subsequent expected events leads to an overall rewarding response. We tested these hypotheses within the framework of information theory, using the measure of “surprise.” This information-theoretic variable mathematically describes how improbable an event is given a known distribution. We performed a statistical investigation of surprise in the harmonic structure of songs within a representative corpus of Western popular music, namely, the McGill Billboard Project corpus. We found that chords of songs in the top quartile of the Billboard chart showed greater average surprise than those in the bottom quartile. We also found that the different sections within top-quartile songs varied more in their average surprise than the sections within bottom-quartile songs. The results of this study are consistent with both the Absolute- and Contrastive-Surprise Hypotheses. Although these hypotheses seem contradictory to one another, we cannot yet discard the possibility that both absolute and contrastive types of surprise play roles in the enjoyment of popular music. We call this possibility the Hybrid-Surprise Hypothesis. The results of this statistical investigation have implications for both music cognition and the human neural mechanisms of esthetic judgments. PMID:28572763

Influence of Family Communication Structure and Vanity Trait on Consumption Behavior: A Case Study of Adolescent Students in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Wei-Lung; Liu, Hsiang-Te; Lin, Tai-An; Wen, Yung-Sung

2008-01-01

The purpose of this research was to study the relationship between family communication structure, vanity trait, and related consumption behavior. The study used an empirical method with adolescent students from the northern part of Taiwan as the subjects. Multiple statistical methods and the SEM model were used for testing the hypotheses. The…

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: Should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

PubMed

Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S

2016-02-01

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harnessing the complexity of gene expression data from cancer: from single gene to structural pathway methods

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

High-dimensional gene expression data provide a rich source of information because they capture the expression level of genes in dynamic states that reflect the biological functioning of a cell. For this reason, such data are suitable to reveal systems related properties inside a cell, e.g., in order to elucidate molecular mechanisms of complex diseases like breast or prostate cancer. However, this is not only strongly dependent on the sample size and the correlation structure of a data set, but also on the statistical hypotheses tested. Many different approaches have been developed over the years to analyze gene expression data to (I) identify changes in single genes, (II) identify changes in gene sets or pathways, and (III) identify changes in the correlation structure in pathways. In this paper, we review statistical methods for all three types of approaches, including subtypes, in the context of cancer data and provide links to software implementations and tools and address also the general problem of multiple hypotheses testing. Further, we provide recommendations for the selection of such analysis methods. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Arcady Mushegian, Byung-Soo Kim and Joel Bader. PMID:23227854

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

PubMed Central

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

Multiple object tracking with non-unique data-to-object association via generalized hypothesis testing. [tracking several aircraft near each other or ships at sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porter, D. W.; Lefler, R. M.

1979-01-01

A generalized hypothesis testing approach is applied to the problem of tracking several objects where several different associations of data with objects are possible. Such problems occur, for instance, when attempting to distinctly track several aircraft maneuvering near each other or when tracking ships at sea. Conceptually, the problem is solved by first, associating data with objects in a statistically reasonable fashion and then, tracking with a bank of Kalman filters. The objects are assumed to have motion characterized by a fixed but unknown deterministic portion plus a random process portion modeled by a shaping filter. For example, the object might be assumed to have a mean straight line path about which it maneuvers in a random manner. Several hypothesized associations of data with objects are possible because of ambiguity as to which object the data comes from, false alarm/detection errors, and possible uncertainty in the number of objects being tracked. The statistical likelihood function is computed for each possible hypothesized association of data with objects. Then the generalized likelihood is computed by maximizing the likelihood over parameters that define the deterministic motion of the object.

Powerful Statistical Inference for Nested Data Using Sufficient Summary Statistics

PubMed Central

Dowding, Irene; Haufe, Stefan

2018-01-01

Hierarchically-organized data arise naturally in many psychology and neuroscience studies. As the standard assumption of independent and identically distributed samples does not hold for such data, two important problems are to accurately estimate group-level effect sizes, and to obtain powerful statistical tests against group-level null hypotheses. A common approach is to summarize subject-level data by a single quantity per subject, which is often the mean or the difference between class means, and treat these as samples in a group-level t-test. This “naive” approach is, however, suboptimal in terms of statistical power, as it ignores information about the intra-subject variance. To address this issue, we review several approaches to deal with nested data, with a focus on methods that are easy to implement. With what we call the sufficient-summary-statistic approach, we highlight a computationally efficient technique that can improve statistical power by taking into account within-subject variances, and we provide step-by-step instructions on how to apply this approach to a number of frequently-used measures of effect size. The properties of the reviewed approaches and the potential benefits over a group-level t-test are quantitatively assessed on simulated data and demonstrated on EEG data from a simulated-driving experiment. PMID:29615885

Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series. On the role of flood events as triggers of epidemic outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J. F.; Donner, R. V.

2016-05-01

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.

Dissolution curve comparisons through the F(2) parameter, a Bayesian extension of the f(2) statistic.

PubMed

Novick, Steven; Shen, Yan; Yang, Harry; Peterson, John; LeBlond, Dave; Altan, Stan

2015-01-01

Dissolution (or in vitro release) studies constitute an important aspect of pharmaceutical drug development. One important use of such studies is for justifying a biowaiver for post-approval changes which requires establishing equivalence between the new and old product. We propose a statistically rigorous modeling approach for this purpose based on the estimation of what we refer to as the F2 parameter, an extension of the commonly used f2 statistic. A Bayesian test procedure is proposed in relation to a set of composite hypotheses that capture the similarity requirement on the absolute mean differences between test and reference dissolution profiles. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application. Results of our simulation study comparing the performance of f2 and the proposed method show that our Bayesian approach is comparable to or in many cases superior to the f2 statistic as a decision rule. Further useful extensions of the method, such as the use of continuous-time dissolution modeling, are considered.

Online Updating of Statistical Inference in the Big Data Setting.

PubMed

Schifano, Elizabeth D; Wu, Jing; Wang, Chun; Yan, Jun; Chen, Ming-Hui

2016-01-01

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop iterative estimating algorithms and statistical inferences for linear models and estimating equations that update as new data arrive. These algorithms are computationally efficient, minimally storage-intensive, and allow for possible rank deficiencies in the subset design matrices due to rare-event covariates. Within the linear model setting, the proposed online-updating framework leads to predictive residual tests that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the hypothesized model. We also propose a new online-updating estimator under the estimating equation setting. Theoretical properties of the goodness-of-fit tests and proposed estimators are examined in detail. In simulation studies and real data applications, our estimator compares favorably with competing approaches under the estimating equation setting.

NASA DOE POD NDE Capabilities Data Book

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

This data book contains the Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) analyses of the nondestructive inspection data presented in the NTIAC, Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Capabilities Data Book, 3rd ed., NTIAC DB-97-02. DOEPOD is designed as a decision support system to validate inspection system, personnel, and protocol demonstrating 0.90 POD with 95% confidence at critical flaw sizes, a90/95. The test methodology used in DOEPOD is based on the field of statistical sequential analysis founded by Abraham Wald. Sequential analysis is a method of statistical inference whose characteristic feature is that the number of observations required by the procedure is not determined in advance of the experiment. The decision to terminate the experiment depends, at each stage, on the results of the observations previously made. A merit of the sequential method, as applied to testing statistical hypotheses, is that test procedures can be constructed which require, on average, a substantially smaller number of observations than equally reliable test procedures based on a predetermined number of observations.

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.

1977-01-01

Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

Multi-arm group sequential designs with a simultaneous stopping rule.

PubMed

Urach, S; Posch, M

2016-12-30

Multi-arm group sequential clinical trials are efficient designs to compare multiple treatments to a control. They allow one to test for treatment effects already in interim analyses and can have a lower average sample number than fixed sample designs. Their operating characteristics depend on the stopping rule: We consider simultaneous stopping, where the whole trial is stopped as soon as for any of the arms the null hypothesis of no treatment effect can be rejected, and separate stopping, where only recruitment to arms for which a significant treatment effect could be demonstrated is stopped, but the other arms are continued. For both stopping rules, the family-wise error rate can be controlled by the closed testing procedure applied to group sequential tests of intersection and elementary hypotheses. The group sequential boundaries for the separate stopping rule also control the family-wise error rate if the simultaneous stopping rule is applied. However, we show that for the simultaneous stopping rule, one can apply improved, less conservative stopping boundaries for local tests of elementary hypotheses. We derive corresponding improved Pocock and O'Brien type boundaries as well as optimized boundaries to maximize the power or average sample number and investigate the operating characteristics and small sample properties of the resulting designs. To control the power to reject at least one null hypothesis, the simultaneous stopping rule requires a lower average sample number than the separate stopping rule. This comes at the cost of a lower power to reject all null hypotheses. Some of this loss in power can be regained by applying the improved stopping boundaries for the simultaneous stopping rule. The procedures are illustrated with clinical trials in systemic sclerosis and narcolepsy. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Heteroscedastic Graded Response Model with a Skewed Latent Trait: Testing Statistical and Substantive Hypotheses Related to Skewed Item Category Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Dylan; Dolan, Conor V.; de Boeck, Paul

2012-01-01

The Graded Response Model (GRM; Samejima, "Estimation of ability using a response pattern of graded scores," Psychometric Monograph No. 17, Richmond, VA: The Psychometric Society, 1969) can be derived by assuming a linear regression of a continuous variable, Z, on the trait, [theta], to underlie the ordinal item scores (Takane & de Leeuw in…

The Use of Probability Theory as a Basis for Planning and Controlling Overhead Costs in Education and Industry. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vinson, R. B.

In this report, the author suggests changes in the treatment of overhead costs by hypothesizing that "the effectiveness of standard costing in planning and controlling overhead costs can be increased through the use of probability theory and associated statistical techniques." To test the hypothesis, the author (1) presents an overview of the…

Intrinsic motivation, neurocognition and psychosocial functioning in schizophrenia: testing mediator and moderator effects.

PubMed

Nakagami, Eri; Xie, Bin; Hoe, Maanse; Brekke, John S

2008-10-01

This study examined the nature of the relationships among neurocognition, intrinsic motivation, and psychosocial functioning for persons with schizophrenia. Hypotheses concerning both mediator and moderator mechanisms were tested. 120 individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia were recruited as they entered outpatient psychosocial rehabilitation programs. Measures of psychosocial functioning and intrinsic motivation were administered at baseline. Measures of neurocognition were administered at baseline by testers blind to scores on other study variables. Data were analyzed using latent construct modeling to test for mediator and moderator effects. There were strong bivariate relationships between neurocognition, intrinsic motivation, and psychosocial functioning. The results demonstrated that intrinsic motivation strongly mediated the relationship between neurocognition and psychosocial functioning. This mediation was evidenced by: (i) the direct path from neurocognition to functional outcome no longer being statistically significant after the introduction of motivation into the model, (ii) the statistical significance of the indirect path from neurocognition through motivation to functional outcome. There was no support for the two moderation hypotheses: the level of neurocognition did not influence the relationship between intrinsic motivation and psychosocial functioning, nor did the level of intrinsic motivation influence the relationship between neurocognition and psychosocial functioning. Neurocognition influences psychosocial functioning through its relationship with intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation is a critical mechanism for explaining the relationship between neurocognition and psychosocial functioning. Implications for the theoretical understanding and psychosocial treatment of intrinsic motivation in schizophrenia are discussed.

A two-hypothesis approach to establishing a life detection/biohazard protocol for planetary samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, Catharine; Steele, Andrew

2016-07-01

The COSPAR policy on performing a biohazard assessment on samples brought from Mars to Earth is framed in the context of a concern for false-positive results. However, as noted during the 2012 Workshop for Life Detection in Samples from Mars (ref. Kminek et al., 2014), a more significant concern for planetary samples brought to Earth is false-negative results, because an undetected biohazard could increase risk to the Earth. This is the reason that stringent contamination control must be a high priority for all Category V Restricted Earth Return missions. A useful conceptual framework for addressing these concerns involves two complementary 'null' hypotheses: testing both of them, together, would allow statistical and community confidence to be developed regarding one or the other conclusion. As noted above, false negatives are of primary concern for safety of the Earth, so the 'Earth Safety null hypothesis' -- that must be disproved to assure low risk to the Earth from samples introduced by Category V Restricted Earth Return missions -- is 'There is native life in these samples.' False positives are of primary concern for Astrobiology, so the 'Astrobiology null hypothesis' -- that must be disproved in order to demonstrate the existence of extraterrestrial life is 'There is no life in these samples.' The presence of Earth contamination would render both of these hypotheses more difficult to disprove. Both these hypotheses can be tested following a strict science protocol; analyse, interprete, test the hypotheses and repeat. The science measurements undertaken are then done in an iterative fashion that responds to discovery with both hypotheses testable from interpretation of the scientific data. This is a robust, community involved activity that ensures maximum science return with minimal sample use.

Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A.

1991-01-01

We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against themore » null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.« less

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

One-way ANOVA based on interval information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesamian, Gholamreza

2016-08-01

This paper deals with extending the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to the case where the observed data are represented by closed intervals rather than real numbers. In this approach, first a notion of interval random variable is introduced. Especially, a normal distribution with interval parameters is introduced to investigate hypotheses about the equality of interval means or test the homogeneity of interval variances assumption. Moreover, the least significant difference (LSD method) for investigating multiple comparison of interval means is developed when the null hypothesis about the equality of means is rejected. Then, at a given interval significance level, an index is applied to compare the interval test statistic and the related interval critical value as a criterion to accept or reject the null interval hypothesis of interest. Finally, the method of decision-making leads to some degrees to accept or reject the interval hypotheses. An applied example will be used to show the performance of this method.

Maximum likelihood methods for investigating reporting rates of rings on hunter-shot birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Morgan, B.J.T.; North, P.M.

1985-01-01

It is well known that hunters do not report 100% of the rings that they find on shot birds. Reward studies can be used to estimate what this reporting rate is, by comparison of recoveries of rings offering a monetary reward, to ordinary rings. A reward study of American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes) is used to illustrate the design, and to motivate the development of statistical models for estimation and for testing hypotheses of temporal and geographic variation in reporting rates. The method involves indexing the data (recoveries) and parameters (reporting, harvest, and solicitation rates) by geographic and temporal strata. Estimates are obtained under unconstrained (e.g., allowing temporal variability in reporting rates) and constrained (e.g., constant reporting rates) models, and hypotheses are tested by likelihood ratio. A FORTRAN program, available from the author, is used to perform the computations.

Making work safer: testing a model of social exchange and safety management.

PubMed

DeJoy, David M; Della, Lindsay J; Vandenberg, Robert J; Wilson, Mark G

2010-04-01

This study tests a conceptual model that focuses on social exchange in the context of safety management. The model hypothesizes that supportive safety policies and programs should impact both safety climate and organizational commitment. Further, perceived organizational support is predicted to partially mediate both of these relationships. Study outcomes included traditional outcomes for both organizational commitment (e.g., withdrawal behaviors) as well as safety climate (e.g., self-reported work accidents). Questionnaire responses were obtained from 1,723 employees of a large national retailer. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, all of the model's hypothesized relationships were statistically significant and in the expected directions. The results are discussed in terms of social exchange in organizations and research on safety climate. Maximizing safety is a social-technical enterprise. Expectations related to social exchange and reciprocity figure prominently in creating a positive climate for safety within the organization. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Raybould, Alan; Macdonald, Phil

2018-01-01

We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment. PMID:29755975

Statistical evidence for common ancestry: Application to primates.

PubMed

Baum, David A; Ané, Cécile; Larget, Bret; Solís-Lemus, Claudia; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Boone, Peggy; Drummond, Chloe P; Bontrager, Martin; Hunter, Steven J; Saucier, William

2016-06-01

Since Darwin, biologists have come to recognize that the theory of descent from common ancestry (CA) is very well supported by diverse lines of evidence. However, while the qualitative evidence is overwhelming, we also need formal methods for quantifying the evidential support for CA over the alternative hypothesis of separate ancestry (SA). In this article, we explore a diversity of statistical methods using data from the primates. We focus on two alternatives to CA, species SA (the separate origin of each named species) and family SA (the separate origin of each family). We implemented statistical tests based on morphological, molecular, and biogeographic data and developed two new methods: one that tests for phylogenetic autocorrelation while correcting for variation due to confounding ecological traits and a method for examining whether fossil taxa have fewer derived differences than living taxa. We overwhelmingly rejected both species and family SA with infinitesimal P values. We compare these results with those from two companion papers, which also found tremendously strong support for the CA of all primates, and discuss future directions and general philosophical issues that pertain to statistical testing of historical hypotheses such as CA. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The MAX Statistic is Less Powerful for Genome Wide Association Studies Under Most Alternative Hypotheses.

PubMed

Shifflett, Benjamin; Huang, Rong; Edland, Steven D

2017-01-01

Genotypic association studies are prone to inflated type I error rates if multiple hypothesis testing is performed, e.g., sequentially testing for recessive, multiplicative, and dominant risk. Alternatives to multiple hypothesis testing include the model independent genotypic χ 2 test, the efficiency robust MAX statistic, which corrects for multiple comparisons but with some loss of power, or a single Armitage test for multiplicative trend, which has optimal power when the multiplicative model holds but with some loss of power when dominant or recessive models underlie the genetic association. We used Monte Carlo simulations to describe the relative performance of these three approaches under a range of scenarios. All three approaches maintained their nominal type I error rates. The genotypic χ 2 and MAX statistics were more powerful when testing a strictly recessive genetic effect or when testing a dominant effect when the allele frequency was high. The Armitage test for multiplicative trend was most powerful for the broad range of scenarios where heterozygote risk is intermediate between recessive and dominant risk. Moreover, all tests had limited power to detect recessive genetic risk unless the sample size was large, and conversely all tests were relatively well powered to detect dominant risk. Taken together, these results suggest the general utility of the multiplicative trend test when the underlying genetic model is unknown.

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hinz, Robert L.; Link, William A.

1994-01-01

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Long memory and multifractality: A joint test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, John; Onali, Enrico

2016-06-01

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. Among the nested model specifications that are investigated, in 11 out of 12 cases, daily returns are most appropriately characterized by a variant of the MMAR that applies a multifractal time-deformation process to NIID returns. There is no evidence of long memory.

Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lukacs, P.M.; Thompson, W.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Gould, W.R.; Doherty, P.F.; Burnham, K.P.; Anderson, D.R.

2007-01-01

1. Stephens et al . (2005) argue for `pluralism? in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. `no difference?) is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al . (2005). 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications. I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Observational Word Learning: Beyond Propose-But-Verify and Associative Bean Counting.

PubMed

Roembke, Tanja; McMurray, Bob

2016-04-01

Learning new words is difficult. In any naming situation, there are multiple possible interpretations of a novel word. Recent approaches suggest that learners may solve this problem by tracking co-occurrence statistics between words and referents across multiple naming situations (e.g. Yu & Smith, 2007), overcoming the ambiguity in any one situation. Yet, there remains debate around the underlying mechanisms. We conducted two experiments in which learners acquired eight word-object mappings using cross-situational statistics while eye-movements were tracked. These addressed four unresolved questions regarding the learning mechanism. First, eye-movements during learning showed evidence that listeners maintain multiple hypotheses for a given word and bring them all to bear in the moment of naming. Second, trial-by-trial analyses of accuracy suggested that listeners accumulate continuous statistics about word/object mappings, over and above prior hypotheses they have about a word. Third, consistent, probabilistic context can impede learning, as false associations between words and highly co-occurring referents are formed. Finally, a number of factors not previously considered in prior analysis impact observational word learning: knowledge of the foils, spatial consistency of the target object, and the number of trials between presentations of the same word. This evidence suggests that observational word learning may derive from a combination of gradual statistical or associative learning mechanisms and more rapid real-time processes such as competition, mutual exclusivity and even inference or hypothesis testing.

POWER-ENHANCED MULTIPLE DECISION FUNCTIONS CONTROLLING FAMILY-WISE ERROR AND FALSE DISCOVERY RATES.

PubMed

Peña, Edsel A; Habiger, Joshua D; Wu, Wensong

2011-02-01

Improved procedures, in terms of smaller missed discovery rates (MDR), for performing multiple hypotheses testing with weak and strong control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) are developed and studied. The improvement over existing procedures such as the Šidák procedure for FWER control and the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure for FDR control is achieved by exploiting possible differences in the powers of the individual tests. Results signal the need to take into account the powers of the individual tests and to have multiple hypotheses decision functions which are not limited to simply using the individual p -values, as is the case, for example, with the Šidák, Bonferroni, or BH procedures. They also enhance understanding of the role of the powers of individual tests, or more precisely the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) functions of decision processes, in the search for better multiple hypotheses testing procedures. A decision-theoretic framework is utilized, and through auxiliary randomizers the procedures could be used with discrete or mixed-type data or with rank-based nonparametric tests. This is in contrast to existing p -value based procedures whose theoretical validity is contingent on each of these p -value statistics being stochastically equal to or greater than a standard uniform variable under the null hypothesis. Proposed procedures are relevant in the analysis of high-dimensional "large M , small n " data sets arising in the natural, physical, medical, economic and social sciences, whose generation and creation is accelerated by advances in high-throughput technology, notably, but not limited to, microarray technology.

Conceptual and statistical problems associated with the use of diversity indices in ecology.

PubMed

Barrantes, Gilbert; Sandoval, Luis

2009-09-01

Diversity indices, particularly the Shannon-Wiener index, have extensively been used in analyzing patterns of diversity at different geographic and ecological scales. These indices have serious conceptual and statistical problems which make comparisons of species richness or species abundances across communities nearly impossible. There is often no a single statistical method that retains all information needed to answer even a simple question. However, multivariate analyses could be used instead of diversity indices, such as cluster analyses or multiple regressions. More complex multivariate analyses, such as Canonical Correspondence Analysis, provide very valuable information on environmental variables associated to the presence and abundance of the species in a community. In addition, particular hypotheses associated to changes in species richness across localities, or change in abundance of one, or a group of species can be tested using univariate, bivariate, and/or rarefaction statistical tests. The rarefaction method has proved to be robust to standardize all samples to a common size. Even the simplest method as reporting the number of species per taxonomic category possibly provides more information than a diversity index value.

Statistical learning of novel graphotactic constraints in children and adults.

PubMed

Samara, Anna; Caravolas, Markéta

2014-05-01

The current study explored statistical learning processes in the acquisition of orthographic knowledge in school-aged children and skilled adults. Learning of novel graphotactic constraints on the position and context of letter distributions was induced by means of a two-phase learning task adapted from Onishi, Chambers, and Fisher (Cognition, 83 (2002) B13-B23). Following incidental exposure to pattern-embedding stimuli in Phase 1, participants' learning generalization was tested in Phase 2 with legality judgments about novel conforming/nonconforming word-like strings. Test phase performance was above chance, suggesting that both types of constraints were reliably learned even after relatively brief exposure. As hypothesized, signal detection theory d' analyses confirmed that learning permissible letter positions (d'=0.97) was easier than permissible neighboring letter contexts (d'=0.19). Adults were more accurate than children in all but a strict analysis of the contextual constraints condition. Consistent with the statistical learning perspective in literacy, our results suggest that statistical learning mechanisms contribute to children's and adults' acquisition of knowledge about graphotactic constraints similar to those existing in their orthography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the testing of Hardy-Weinberg proportions and equality of allele frequencies in males and females at biallelic genetic markers.

PubMed

Graffelman, Jan; Weir, Bruce S

2018-02-01

Standard statistical tests for equality of allele frequencies in males and females and tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium are tightly linked by their assumptions. Tests for equality of allele frequencies assume Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, whereas the usual chi-square or exact test for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium assume equality of allele frequencies in the sexes. In this paper, we propose ways to break this interdependence in assumptions of the two tests by proposing an omnibus exact test that can test both hypotheses jointly, as well as a likelihood ratio approach that permits these phenomena to be tested both jointly and separately. The tests are illustrated with data from the 1000 Genomes project. © 2017 The Authors Genetic Epidemiology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-01

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-13

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation ofmore » Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.« less

Rank-based permutation approaches for non-parametric factorial designs.

PubMed

Umlauft, Maria; Konietschke, Frank; Pauly, Markus

2017-11-01

Inference methods for null hypotheses formulated in terms of distribution functions in general non-parametric factorial designs are studied. The methods can be applied to continuous, ordinal or even ordered categorical data in a unified way, and are based only on ranks. In this set-up Wald-type statistics and ANOVA-type statistics are the current state of the art. The first method is asymptotically exact but a rather liberal statistical testing procedure for small to moderate sample size, while the latter is only an approximation which does not possess the correct asymptotic α level under the null. To bridge these gaps, a novel permutation approach is proposed which can be seen as a flexible generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test to all kinds of factorial designs with independent observations. It is proven that the permutation principle is asymptotically correct while keeping its finite exactness property when data are exchangeable. The results of extensive simulation studies foster these theoretical findings. A real data set exemplifies its applicability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Cross-situational statistical word learning in young children.

PubMed

Suanda, Sumarga H; Mugwanya, Nassali; Namy, Laura L

2014-10-01

Recent empirical work has highlighted the potential role of cross-situational statistical word learning in children's early vocabulary development. In the current study, we tested 5- to 7-year-old children's cross-situational learning by presenting children with a series of ambiguous naming events containing multiple words and multiple referents. Children rapidly learned word-to-object mappings by attending to the co-occurrence regularities across these ambiguous naming events. The current study begins to address the mechanisms underlying children's learning by demonstrating that the diversity of learning contexts affects performance. The implications of the current findings for the role of cross-situational word learning at different points in development are discussed along with the methodological implications of employing school-aged children to test hypotheses regarding the mechanisms supporting early word learning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Same or Not the Same: Equivalence as an Issue in Educational Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Scott E.; Lewis, Jennifer E.

2005-09-01

In educational research, particularly in the sciences, a common research design calls for the establishment of a control and experimental group to determine the effectiveness of an intervention. As part of this design, it is often desirable to illustrate that the two groups were equivalent at the start of the intervention, based on measures such as standardized cognitive tests or student grades in prior courses. In this article we use SAT and ACT scores to illustrate a more robust way of testing equivalence. The method incorporates two one-sided t tests evaluating two null hypotheses, providing a stronger claim for equivalence than the standard method, which often does not address the possible problem of low statistical power. The two null hypotheses are based on the construction of an equivalence interval particular to the data, so the article also provides a rationale for and illustration of a procedure for constructing equivalence intervals. Our consideration of equivalence using this method also underscores the need to include sample sizes, standard deviations, and group means in published quantitative studies.

A step-up test procedure to find the minimum effective dose.

PubMed

Wang, Weizhen; Peng, Jianan

2015-01-01

It is of great interest to find the minimum effective dose (MED) in dose-response studies. A sequence of decreasing null hypotheses to find the MED is formulated under the assumption of nondecreasing dose response means. A step-up multiple test procedure that controls the familywise error rate (FWER) is constructed based on the maximum likelihood estimators for the monotone normal means. When the MED is equal to one, the proposed test is uniformly more powerful than Hsu and Berger's test (1999). Also, a simulation study shows a substantial power improvement for the proposed test over four competitors. Three R-codes are provided in Supplemental Materials for this article. Go to the publishers online edition of Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics to view the files.

Introducing StatHand: A Cross-Platform Mobile Application to Support Students' Statistical Decision Making.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Roberts, Lynne D; Baughman, Frank D; Loxton, Natalie J; Van Rooy, Dirk; Rock, Adam J; Finlay, James

2016-01-01

Although essential to professional competence in psychology, quantitative research methods are a known area of weakness for many undergraduate psychology students. Students find selecting appropriate statistical tests and procedures for different types of research questions, hypotheses and data types particularly challenging, and these skills are not often practiced in class. Decision trees (a type of graphic organizer) are known to facilitate this decision making process, but extant trees have a number of limitations. Furthermore, emerging research suggests that mobile technologies offer many possibilities for facilitating learning. It is within this context that we have developed StatHand, a free cross-platform application designed to support students' statistical decision making. Developed with the support of the Australian Government Office for Learning and Teaching, StatHand guides users through a series of simple, annotated questions to help them identify a statistical test or procedure appropriate to their circumstances. It further offers the guidance necessary to run these tests and procedures, then interpret and report their results. In this Technology Report we will overview the rationale behind StatHand, before describing the feature set of the application. We will then provide guidelines for integrating StatHand into the research methods curriculum, before concluding by outlining our road map for the ongoing development and evaluation of StatHand.

An empirical test of Maslow's theory of need hierarchy using hologeistic comparison by statistical sampling.

PubMed

Davis-Sharts, J

1986-10-01

Maslow's hierarchy of basic human needs provides a major theoretical framework in nursing science. The purpose of this study was to empirically test Maslow's need theory, specifically at the levels of physiological and security needs, using a hologeistic comparative method. Thirty cultures taken from the 60 cultural units in the Health Relations Area Files (HRAF) Probability Sample were found to have data available for examining hypotheses about thermoregulatory (physiological) and protective (security) behaviors practiced prior to sleep onset. The findings demonstrate there is initial worldwide empirical evidence to support Maslow's need hierarchy.

Online incidental statistical learning of audiovisual word sequences in adults: a registered report.

PubMed

Kuppuraj, Sengottuvel; Duta, Mihaela; Thompson, Paul; Bishop, Dorothy

2018-02-01

Statistical learning has been proposed as a key mechanism in language learning. Our main goal was to examine whether adults are capable of simultaneously extracting statistical dependencies in a task where stimuli include a range of structures amenable to statistical learning within a single paradigm. We devised an online statistical learning task using real word auditory-picture sequences that vary in two dimensions: (i) predictability and (ii) adjacency of dependent elements. This task was followed by an offline recall task to probe learning of each sequence type. We registered three hypotheses with specific predictions. First, adults would extract regular patterns from continuous stream (effect of grammaticality). Second, within grammatical conditions, they would show differential speeding up for each condition as a factor of statistical complexity of the condition and exposure. Third, our novel approach to measure online statistical learning would be reliable in showing individual differences in statistical learning ability. Further, we explored the relation between statistical learning and a measure of verbal short-term memory (STM). Forty-two participants were tested and retested after an interval of at least 3 days on our novel statistical learning task. We analysed the reaction time data using a novel regression discontinuity approach. Consistent with prediction, participants showed a grammaticality effect, agreeing with the predicted order of difficulty for learning different statistical structures. Furthermore, a learning index from the task showed acceptable test-retest reliability ( r  = 0.67). However, STM did not correlate with statistical learning. We discuss the findings noting the benefits of online measures in tracking the learning process.

Incidence of workers compensation indemnity claims across socio-demographic and job characteristics.

PubMed

Du, Juan; Leigh, J Paul

2011-10-01

We hypothesized that low socioeconomic status, employer-provided health insurance, low wages, and overtime were predictors of reporting workers compensation indemnity claims. We also tested for gender and race disparities. Responses from 17,190 (person-years) Americans participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1997-2005, were analyzed with logistic regressions. The dependent variable indicated whether the subject collected benefits from a claim. Odds ratios for men and African-Americans were relatively large and strongly significant predictors of claims; significance for Hispanics was moderate and confounded by education. Odds ratios for variables measuring education were the largest for all statistically significant covariates. Neither low wages nor employer-provided health insurance was a consistent predictor. Due to confounding from the "not salaried" variable, overtime was not a consistently significant predictor. Few studies use nationally representative longitudinal data to consider which demographic and job characteristics predict reporting workers compensation indemnity cases. This study did and tested some common hypotheses about predictors. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Statistical Power of Alternative Structural Models for Comparative Effectiveness Research: Advantages of Modeling Unreliability.

PubMed

Coman, Emil N; Iordache, Eugen; Dierker, Lisa; Fifield, Judith; Schensul, Jean J; Suggs, Suzanne; Barbour, Russell

2014-05-01

The advantages of modeling the unreliability of outcomes when evaluating the comparative effectiveness of health interventions is illustrated. Adding an action-research intervention component to a regular summer job program for youth was expected to help in preventing risk behaviors. A series of simple two-group alternative structural equation models are compared to test the effect of the intervention on one key attitudinal outcome in terms of model fit and statistical power with Monte Carlo simulations. Some models presuming parameters equal across the intervention and comparison groups were underpowered to detect the intervention effect, yet modeling the unreliability of the outcome measure increased their statistical power and helped in the detection of the hypothesized effect. Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) could benefit from flexible multi-group alternative structural models organized in decision trees, and modeling unreliability of measures can be of tremendous help for both the fit of statistical models to the data and their statistical power.

Research priorities: women in Africa.

PubMed

Okeyo, A P

1979-01-01

In December 1979, an Expert Meeting on Research and Data Collection on Women and Development was convened in Nairobi for the purpose of defining research priorities and methodological approaches for studying the role of African women in development. After reviewing current literature relevant to the subject matter, the participants developed a number of hypotheses regarding the impact of development activities on the role and status of women, and recommended that these hypotheses be tested in future reserach. In general, agrarian reform, mechanization of agriculture, the introduction of cash cropping, and modernization were hypothesized as having a negative impact on the role, status, productive activities, and nutritional standards of women. Other hypotheses stated that development programs and agricultural extension services tended to neglect women. Recommended research methodologies include: 1) efforts to involve the community members in the development and implementation of research projects undertaken in their communities; 2) increased use of local experts and community members in data collection; and 3) interdisciplinary collaboration. The participants also recommended that each country compile a statistical profile on the women in their countries. The profiles should include comparable information on: 1) fertility; 2) educational levels, employment status, and income levels for women; 3) household composition; and 4) types of services available to women.

Earthquake likelihood model testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson (2003) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests.In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses.To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P-axis, declination of P-axis, and inclination of the T-axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger (2007, this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event.As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models.The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson (1995). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Wiemer, S.; Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Naylor, M.; Zhuang, J.; Steacy, S.; Corssa Executive Committee

2010-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the testing of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology - especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy - statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA). CORSSA is a web-based educational platform that is authoritative, up-to-date, prominent, and user-friendly. We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each containing between four and eight articles. The CORSSA web page, www.corssa.org, officially unveiled on September 6, 2010, debuts with an initial set of approximately 10 to 15 articles available online for viewing and commenting with additional articles to be added over the coming months. Each article will be peer-reviewed and will present a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles will include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. A special article will compare and review available statistical seismology software packages.

Good reliability and validity for a new utility instrument measuring the birth experience, the Labor and Delivery Index.

PubMed

Gärtner, Fania R; de Miranda, Esteriek; Rijnders, Marlies E; Freeman, Liv M; Middeldorp, Johanna M; Bloemenkamp, Kitty W M; Stiggelbout, Anne M; van den Akker-van Marle, M Elske

2015-10-01

To validate the Labor and Delivery Index (LADY-X), a new delivery-specific utility measure. In a test-retest design, women were surveyed online, 6 to 8 weeks postpartum and again 1 to 2 weeks later. For reliability testing, we assessed the standard error of measurement (S.E.M.) and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). For construct validity, we tested hypotheses on the association with comparison instruments (Mackey Childbirth Satisfaction Rating Scale and Wijma Delivery Experience Questionnaire), both on domain and total score levels. We assessed known-group differences using eight obstetrical indicators: method and place of birth, induction, transfer, control over pain medication, complications concerning mother and child, and experienced control. The questionnaire was completed by 308 women, 257 (83%) completed the retest. The distribution of LADY-X scores was skewed. The reliability was good, as the ICC exceeded 0.80 and the S.E.M. was 0.76. Requirements for good construct validity were fulfilled: all hypotheses for convergent and divergent validity were confirmed, and six of eight hypotheses for known-group differences were confirmed as all differences were statistically significant (P-values: <0.001-0.023), but for two tests, difference scores did not exceed the S.E.M. The LADY-X demonstrates good reliability and construct validity. Despite its skewed distribution, the LADY-X can discriminate between groups. With the preference weights available, the LADY-X might fulfill the need for a utility measure for cost-effectiveness studies for perinatal care interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Type I and II Familywise Error Rates

PubMed Central

Bartroff, Jay; Song, Jinlin

2014-01-01

This paper addresses the following general scenario: A scientist wishes to perform a battery of experiments, each generating a sequential stream of data, to investigate some phenomenon. The scientist would like to control the overall error rate in order to draw statistically-valid conclusions from each experiment, while being as efficient as possible. The between-stream data may differ in distribution and dimension but also may be highly correlated, even duplicated exactly in some cases. Treating each experiment as a hypothesis test and adopting the familywise error rate (FWER) metric, we give a procedure that sequentially tests each hypothesis while controlling both the type I and II FWERs regardless of the between-stream correlation, and only requires arbitrary sequential test statistics that control the error rates for a given stream in isolation. The proposed procedure, which we call the sequential Holm procedure because of its inspiration from Holm’s (1979) seminal fixed-sample procedure, shows simultaneous savings in expected sample size and less conservative error control relative to fixed sample, sequential Bonferroni, and other recently proposed sequential procedures in a simulation study. PMID:25092948

Investigating the cognitive precursors of emotional response to cancer stress: re-testing Lazarus's transactional model.

PubMed

Hulbert-Williams, N J; Morrison, V; Wilkinson, C; Neal, R D

2013-02-01

Lazarus's Transactional Model of stress and coping underwent significant theoretical development through the 1990s to better incorporate emotional reactions to stress with their appraisal components. Few studies have robustly explored the full model. This study aimed to do so within the context of a major life event: cancer diagnosis. A repeated measures design was used whereby data were collected using self-report questionnaire at baseline (soon after diagnosis), and 3- and 6-month follow-up. A total of 160 recently diagnosed cancer patients were recruited (mean time since diagnosis = 46 days). Their mean age was 64.2 years. Data on appraisals, core-relational themes, and emotions were collected. Data were analysed using both Spearman's correlation tests and multivariate regression modelling. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated weak correlation between change scores of theoretically associated components and some emotions correlated more strongly with cognitions contradicting theoretical expectations. Cross-sectional multivariate testing of the ability of cognitions to explain variance in emotion was largely theory inconsistent. Although data support the generic structure of the Transactional Model, they question the model specifics. Larger scale research is needed encompassing a wider range of emotions and using more complex statistical testing. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT?: • Stress processes are transactional and coping outcome is informed by both cognitive appraisal of the stressor and the individual's emotional response (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). • Lazarus (1999) made specific hypotheses about which particular stress appraisals would determine which emotional response, but only a small number of these relationships have been robustly investigated. • Previous empirical testing of this theory has been limited by design and statistical limitations. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: • This study empirically investigates the cognitive precedents of a much larger range of emotional outcomes than has previously been attempted in the literature. • Support for the model at a general level is established: this study demonstrates that both primary and secondary appraisals, and core-relational themes are important variables in explaining variance in emotional outcome. • The specific hypotheses proposed by Lazarus (1999) are not, however, supported: using data-driven approaches we demonstrate that equally high levels of variance can be explained using entirely different cognitive appraisals than those hypothesized. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

In defence of model-based inference in phylogeography

PubMed Central

Beaumont, Mark A.; Nielsen, Rasmus; Robert, Christian; Hey, Jody; Gaggiotti, Oscar; Knowles, Lacey; Estoup, Arnaud; Panchal, Mahesh; Corander, Jukka; Hickerson, Mike; Sisson, Scott A.; Fagundes, Nelson; Chikhi, Lounès; Beerli, Peter; Vitalis, Renaud; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Huelsenbeck, John; Foll, Matthieu; Yang, Ziheng; Rousset, Francois; Balding, David; Excoffier, Laurent

2017-01-01

Recent papers have promoted the view that model-based methods in general, and those based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in particular, are flawed in a number of ways, and are therefore inappropriate for the analysis of phylogeographic data. These papers further argue that Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis (NCPA) offers the best approach in statistical phylogeography. In order to remove the confusion and misconceptions introduced by these papers, we justify and explain the reasoning behind model-based inference. We argue that ABC is a statistically valid approach, alongside other computational statistical techniques that have been successfully used to infer parameters and compare models in population genetics. We also examine the NCPA method and highlight numerous deficiencies, either when used with single or multiple loci. We further show that the ages of clades are carelessly used to infer ages of demographic events, that these ages are estimated under a simple model of panmixia and population stationarity but are then used under different and unspecified models to test hypotheses, a usage the invalidates these testing procedures. We conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics. PMID:29284924

Testing Hypotheses in Linear Models with Weighted Rank Statistics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-01

18- The resulting weight matrix is Colo -bo" 01 "-bopop (7.2) W - -boJl0 cll I .. -blpJl p - bpp -bplpl.. cI pO pO pi-pi pP where I is an n x n...F(x+a 1 ) and F3 (x) = F(x+a 1 ) . Substituting these into (7.7), differentiating and evaluating at a, 0 yields * 2dU2/dala= = 2nnbl2-n~nb0)2 dU /d

Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

PubMed

Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

2013-09-01

In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

Comparing fist size to heart size is not a viable technique to assess cardiomegaly.

PubMed

Ampanozi, Garyfalia; Krinke, Eileen; Laberke, Patrick; Schweitzer, Wolf; Thali, Michael J; Ebert, Lars C

2018-05-07

Several medical textbooks state that a human heart is approximately the size of that person's fist. Stating that a heart has the size of the corpse's fist is thought to signify that the heart size is normal. We formulate two hypotheses that are tested in this article. First, we hypothesize that in cases without cardiomegaly, volumes of the hand and the heart are not significantly different. Second, we hypothesize that in cases of cardiomegaly, the heart volume statistically significantly exceeds that of the hand. We retrospectively reviewed 130 consecutive postmortem computed tomography datasets from the BLINDED starting from 01/01/2013, covering a period of approximately 3 months. Hands and hearts were segmented and their volumes estimated. We obtained the following information from the postmortem examination reports: age, sex, body length and weight, heart weight, cardiomegaly, and cause of death. When exploring the correlation between mean hand volume and heart volume, only in the group of the females with cardiomegaly (N=8) could a positive, statistically significant correlation be ascertained (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.753, P=.031). In this study, we demonstrated that the commonly used idea that a heart larger than the fist of a patient suggests cardiomegaly might be incorrect. Because this perception is commonly used in autopsy reports, it might lead to avoidable errors. Until further studies confirm this hypothesis, this informal measurement should no longer be taught or used. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Evaluation of CPRA (Cost Performance Report Analysis) Estimate at Completion Techniques Based Upon AFWAL (Air Force Wright Aeronautical Laboratories) Cost/Schedule Control System Criteria Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

4 C/SCSC Terms and Definitions ...... ..... 5 Cost Performance Report Analysis (CPA) Progrra" m 6 Description of CPRA Terms and Formulas...hypotheses are: 1 2 C2: al’ 02 ’ The test statistic is then calculated as: F* (( SSEI + (nI - 2)) / (SSE 2 + (n 2 - 2))] The critical F value is: F(c, nl...353.90767 SIGNIF F = .0000 44 ,1 42 •.4 m . - .TABLE B.4 General Linear Test for EAC1 and EAC5 MEAN STD DEV CASES ECAC 827534.056 1202737.882 1630 EACS

Why Can't We Resolve Recruitment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, S. A.; Payne, M. R.; Hátún, H.; MacKenzie, B. R.; Butenschön, M.; Visser, A. W.

2016-02-01

During the last century, Johan Hjort's work has lead to signicant advances in explaining anomalous year-classes within sheries science. However, distinguishing between the competing mechanisms of year-class regulation (e.g., food conditions, predation, transport) has proved challenging. We use blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in the North-east Atlantic Ocean as a case study, which, during the late 1990s and early 2000s, generated year-classes up to nearly an order of magnitude higher than those seen before or after. There presently exists no models that can quantify past variations in recruitment for this stock. Using modern stock-statistical and observational tools, we catalog a range of environmentally-driven hypotheses relevant for recruitment of blue whiting, including physical and biogeographic conditions, phenology, parental effects and predation. We have run the analyses to test some hypotheses and results will be presented at the session.

Errors in statistical decision making Chapter 2 in Applied Statistics in Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Sciences

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agronomic and Environmental research experiments result in data that are analyzed using statistical methods. These data are unavoidably accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions about hypotheses, based on statistical analyses of these data are therefore subject to error. This error is of three types,...

Factors Influencing Critical Care Nurses' Perception of Their Overall Job Satisfaction: An Empirical Study.

PubMed

Moneke, Ngozi; Umeh, Ogwo J

2015-10-01

The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing critical care nurses’ perception of their overall job satisfaction. Nurses’ job satisfaction is a key issue to consider in the retention of critical care nurses. Shortages of nurses result in unsafe patient care, increased expense, and increased stress levels among other nurses. The Leadership Practices Inventory was used among a sample of critical care nurses to measure perceived leadership practices, the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire measured nurses commitment, and the Job in General scale was used to measure nurses’ overall job satisfaction. Four different hypotheses were tested using bivariate and multivariate statistical analytical techniques. Statistically significant relationships were found among the following hypotheses: (a) perceived leadership and job satisfaction; (b) organizational commitment and job satisfaction; and (c) perceived leadership practices, organizational commitment, and job satisfaction. No significant relationships were found among critical care nurses’ demographic variables and job satisfaction. Organizational commitment was the strongest predictor of job satisfaction. Encourage the heart (B = 0.116, P = .035) and organizational commitment (B = 0.353, P = .000) were found to be significantly associated with job satisfaction. These findings have implications for nurse educators, preceptors, administrators, recruiters, and managers in promoting satisfaction.

Factors influencing critical care nurses' perception of their overall job satisfaction: an empirical study.

PubMed

Moneke, Ngozi; Umeh, Ogwo J

2013-04-01

The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing critical care nurses' perception of their overall job satisfaction. Nurses' job satisfaction is a key issue to consider in the retention of critical care nurses. Shortages of nurses result in unsafe patient care, increased expense, and increased stress levels among other nurses. The Leadership Practices Inventory was used among a sample of critical care nurses to measure perceived leadership practices, the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire measured nurses commitment, and the Job in General scale was used to measure nurses' overall job satisfaction. Four different hypotheses were tested using bivariate and multivariate statistical analytical techniques. Statistically significant relationships were found among the following hypotheses: (a) perceived leadership and job satisfaction; (b) organizational commitment and job satisfaction; and (c) perceived leadership practices, organizational commitment, and job satisfaction. No significant relationships were found among critical care nurses' demographic variables and job satisfaction. Organizational commitment was the strongest predictor of job satisfaction. Encourage the heart (B = 0.116, P = .035) and organizational commitment (B = 0.353, P = .000) were found to be significantly associated with job satisfaction. These findings have implications for nurse educators, preceptors, administrators, recruiters, and managers in promoting satisfaction.

Multilevel structural equation models for assessing moderation within and across levels of analysis.

PubMed

Preacher, Kristopher J; Zhang, Zhen; Zyphur, Michael J

2016-06-01

Social scientists are increasingly interested in multilevel hypotheses, data, and statistical models as well as moderation or interactions among predictors. The result is a focus on hypotheses and tests of multilevel moderation within and across levels of analysis. Unfortunately, existing approaches to multilevel moderation have a variety of shortcomings, including conflated effects across levels of analysis and bias due to using observed cluster averages instead of latent variables (i.e., "random intercepts") to represent higher-level constructs. To overcome these problems and elucidate the nature of multilevel moderation effects, we introduce a multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) logic that clarifies the nature of the problems with existing practices and remedies them with latent variable interactions. This remedy uses random coefficients and/or latent moderated structural equations (LMS) for unbiased tests of multilevel moderation. We describe our approach and provide an example using the publicly available High School and Beyond data with Mplus syntax in Appendix. Our MSEM method eliminates problems of conflated multilevel effects and reduces bias in parameter estimates while offering a coherent framework for conceptualizing and testing multilevel moderation effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Globigerinoides ruber morphotypes in the Gulf of Mexico: a test of null hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Richey, Julie N.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Poore, Richard Z.

2014-01-01

Planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (G. ruber), due to its abundance and ubiquity in the tropical/subtropical mixed layer, has been the workhorse of paleoceanographic studies investigating past sea-surface conditions on a range of timescales. Recent geochemical work on the two principal white G. ruber (W) morphotypes, sensu stricto (ss) and sensu lato (sl), has hypothesized differences in seasonal preferences or calcification depths, implying that reconstructions using a non-selective mixture of morphotypes could potentially be biased. Here, we test these hypotheses by performing stable isotope and abundance measurements on the two morphotypes in sediment trap, core-top, and downcore samples from the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a test of null hypothesis, we perform the same analyses on couplets of G. ruber (W) specimens with attributes intermediate to the holotypic ss and sl morphologies. We find no systematic or significant offsets in coeval ss-sl δ18O, and δ13C. These offsets are no larger than those in the intermediate pairs. Coupling our results with foraminiferal statistical model INFAUNAL, we find that contrary to previous work elsewhere, there is no evidence for discrepancies in ss-sl calcifying depth habitat or seasonality in the Gulf of Mexico.

STOP using just GO: a multi-ontology hypothesis generation tool for high throughput experimentation

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis remains one of the most common methods for hypothesis generation from high throughput datasets. However, we believe that researchers strive to test other hypotheses that fall outside of GO. Here, we developed and evaluated a tool for hypothesis generation from gene or protein lists using ontological concepts present in manually curated text that describes those genes and proteins. Results As a consequence we have developed the method Statistical Tracking of Ontological Phrases (STOP) that expands the realm of testable hypotheses in gene set enrichment analyses by integrating automated annotations of genes to terms from over 200 biomedical ontologies. While not as precise as manually curated terms, we find that the additional enriched concepts have value when coupled with traditional enrichment analyses using curated terms. Conclusion Multiple ontologies have been developed for gene and protein annotation, by using a dataset of both manually curated GO terms and automatically recognized concepts from curated text we can expand the realm of hypotheses that can be discovered. The web application STOP is available at http://mooneygroup.org/stop/. PMID:23409969

Psychology, Science, and Knowledge Construction: Broadening Perspectives from the Replication Crisis.

PubMed

Shrout, Patrick E; Rodgers, Joseph L

2018-01-04

Psychology advances knowledge by testing statistical hypotheses using empirical observations and data. The expectation is that most statistically significant findings can be replicated in new data and in new laboratories, but in practice many findings have replicated less often than expected, leading to claims of a replication crisis. We review recent methodological literature on questionable research practices, meta-analysis, and power analysis to explain the apparently high rates of failure to replicate. Psychologists can improve research practices to advance knowledge in ways that improve replicability. We recommend that researchers adopt open science conventions of preregi-stration and full disclosure and that replication efforts be based on multiple studies rather than on a single replication attempt. We call for more sophisticated power analyses, careful consideration of the various influences on effect sizes, and more complete disclosure of nonsignificant as well as statistically significant findings.

Maximum a posteriori decoder for digital communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altes, Richard A. (Inventor)

1997-01-01

A system and method for decoding by identification of the most likely phase coded signal corresponding to received data. The present invention has particular application to communication with signals that experience spurious random phase perturbations. The generalized estimator-correlator uses a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator to generate phase estimates for correlation with incoming data samples and for correlation with mean phases indicative of unique hypothesized signals. The result is a MAP likelihood statistic for each hypothesized transmission, wherein the highest value statistic identifies the transmitted signal.

Multiple testing and power calculations in genetic association studies.

PubMed

So, Hon-Cheong; Sham, Pak C

2011-01-01

Modern genetic association studies typically involve multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and/or multiple genes. With the development of high-throughput genotyping technologies and the reduction in genotyping cost, investigators can now assay up to a million SNPs for direct or indirect association with disease phenotypes. In addition, some studies involve multiple disease or related phenotypes and use multiple methods of statistical analysis. The combination of multiple genetic loci, multiple phenotypes, and multiple methods of evaluating associations between genotype and phenotype means that modern genetic studies often involve the testing of an enormous number of hypotheses. When multiple hypothesis tests are performed in a study, there is a risk of inflation of the type I error rate (i.e., the chance of falsely claiming an association when there is none). Several methods for multiple-testing correction are in popular use, and they all have strengths and weaknesses. Because no single method is universally adopted or always appropriate, it is important to understand the principles, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods so that they can be applied appropriately in practice. In this article, we review the three principle methods for multiple-testing correction and provide guidance for calculating statistical power.

Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks

PubMed Central

Hoffrage, Ulrich; Krauss, Stefan; Martignon, Laura; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Representing statistical information in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural frequencies has been demonstrated in a variety of applied domains such as medicine, law, and education. Yet all the research and applications so far have been limited to situations where one dichotomous cue is used to infer which of two hypotheses is true. Real-life applications, however, often involve situations where cues (e.g., medical tests) have more than one value, where more than two hypotheses (e.g., diseases) are considered, or where more than one cue is available. In Study 1, we show that natural frequencies, compared to information stated in terms of probabilities, consistently increase the proportion of Bayesian inferences made by medical students in four conditions—three cue values, three hypotheses, two cues, or three cues—by an average of 37 percentage points. In Study 2, we show that teaching natural frequencies for simple tasks with one dichotomous cue and two hypotheses leads to a transfer of learning to complex tasks with three cue values and two cues, with a proportion of 40 and 81% correct inferences, respectively. Thus, natural frequencies facilitate Bayesian reasoning in a much broader class of situations than previously thought. PMID:26528197

The use of imputed sibling genotypes in sibship-based association analysis: on modeling alternatives, power and model misspecification.

PubMed

Minică, Camelia C; Dolan, Conor V; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Willemsen, Gonneke; Vink, Jacqueline M; Boomsma, Dorret I

2013-05-01

When phenotypic, but no genotypic data are available for relatives of participants in genetic association studies, previous research has shown that family-based imputed genotypes can boost the statistical power when included in such studies. Here, using simulations, we compared the performance of two statistical approaches suitable to model imputed genotype data: the mixture approach, which involves the full distribution of the imputed genotypes and the dosage approach, where the mean of the conditional distribution features as the imputed genotype. Simulations were run by varying sibship size, size of the phenotypic correlations among siblings, imputation accuracy and minor allele frequency of the causal SNP. Furthermore, as imputing sibling data and extending the model to include sibships of size two or greater requires modeling the familial covariance matrix, we inquired whether model misspecification affects power. Finally, the results obtained via simulations were empirically verified in two datasets with continuous phenotype data (height) and with a dichotomous phenotype (smoking initiation). Across the settings considered, the mixture and the dosage approach are equally powerful and both produce unbiased parameter estimates. In addition, the likelihood-ratio test in the linear mixed model appears to be robust to the considered misspecification in the background covariance structure, given low to moderate phenotypic correlations among siblings. Empirical results show that the inclusion in association analysis of imputed sibling genotypes does not always result in larger test statistic. The actual test statistic may drop in value due to small effect sizes. That is, if the power benefit is small, that the change in distribution of the test statistic under the alternative is relatively small, the probability is greater of obtaining a smaller test statistic. As the genetic effects are typically hypothesized to be small, in practice, the decision on whether family-based imputation could be used as a means to increase power should be informed by prior power calculations and by the consideration of the background correlation.

The Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and the Randomization Test: A Sampling Taxonomy.

PubMed

Rodgers, J L

1999-10-01

A simple sampling taxonomy is defined that shows the differences between and relationships among the bootstrap, the jackknife, and the randomization test. Each method has as its goal the creation of an empirical sampling distribution that can be used to test statistical hypotheses, estimate standard errors, and/or create confidence intervals. Distinctions between the methods can be made based on the sampling approach (with replacement versus without replacement) and the sample size (replacing the whole original sample versus replacing a subset of the original sample). The taxonomy is useful for teaching the goals and purposes of resampling schemes. An extension of the taxonomy implies other possible resampling approaches that have not previously been considered. Univariate and multivariate examples are presented.

Phycoerythrin evolution and diversification of spectral phenotype in marine Synechococcus and related picocyanobacteria.

PubMed

Everroad, R Craig; Wood, A Michelle

2012-09-01

In marine Synechococcus there is evidence for the adaptive evolution of spectrally distinct forms of the major light harvesting pigment phycoerythrin (PE). Recent research has suggested that these spectral forms of PE have a different evolutionary history than the core genome. However, a lack of explicit statistical testing of alternative hypotheses or for selection on these genes has made it difficult to evaluate the evolutionary relationships between spectral forms of PE or the role horizontal gene transfer (HGT) may have had in the adaptive phenotypic evolution of the pigment system in marine Synechococcus. In this work, PE phylogenies of picocyanobacteria with known spectral phenotypes, including newly co-isolated strains of marine Synechococcus from the Gulf of Mexico, were constructed to explore the diversification of spectral phenotype and PE evolution in this group more completely. For the first time, statistical evaluation of competing evolutionary hypotheses and tests for positive selection on the PE locus in picocyanobacteria were performed. Genes for PEs associated with specific PE spectral phenotypes formed strongly supported monophyletic clades within the PE tree with positive directional selection driving evolution towards higher phycourobilin (PUB) content. The presence of the PUB-lacking phenotype in PE-containing marine picocyanobacteria from cyanobacterial lineages identified as Cyanobium is best explained by HGT into this group from marine Synechococcus. Taken together, these data provide strong examples of adaptive evolution of a single phenotypic trait in bacteria via mutation, positive directional selection and horizontal gene transfer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Michael, A. J.; Naylor, M.; Steacy, S.; Wiemer, S.; Zhuang, J.

2011-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the evaluation of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology-especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy-statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA, www.corssa.org). We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each will contain between four and eight articles. CORSSA now includes seven articles with an additional six in draft form along with forums for discussion, a glossary, and news about upcoming meetings, special issues, and recent papers. Each article is peer-reviewed and presents a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. We have also begun curating a collection of statistical seismology software packages.

A sup-score test for the cure fraction in mixture models for long-term survivors.

PubMed

Hsu, Wei-Wen; Todem, David; Kim, KyungMann

2016-12-01

The evaluation of cure fractions in oncology research under the well known cure rate model has attracted considerable attention in the literature, but most of the existing testing procedures have relied on restrictive assumptions. A common assumption has been to restrict the cure fraction to a constant under alternatives to homogeneity, thereby neglecting any information from covariates. This article extends the literature by developing a score-based statistic that incorporates covariate information to detect cure fractions, with the existing testing procedure serving as a special case. A complication of this extension, however, is that the implied hypotheses are not typical and standard regularity conditions to conduct the test may not even hold. Using empirical processes arguments, we construct a sup-score test statistic for cure fractions and establish its limiting null distribution as a functional of mixtures of chi-square processes. In practice, we suggest a simple resampling procedure to approximate this limiting distribution. Our simulation results show that the proposed test can greatly improve efficiency over tests that neglect the heterogeneity of the cure fraction under the alternative. The practical utility of the methodology is illustrated using ovarian cancer survival data with long-term follow-up from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results registry. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

The t-CWT: a new ERP detection and quantification method based on the continuous wavelet transform and Student's t-statistics.

PubMed

Bostanov, Vladimir; Kotchoubey, Boris

2006-12-01

This study was aimed at developing a method for extraction and assessment of event-related brain potentials (ERP) from single-trials. This method should be applicable in the assessment of single persons' ERPs and should be able to handle both single ERP components and whole waveforms. We adopted a recently developed ERP feature extraction method, the t-CWT, for the purposes of hypothesis testing in the statistical assessment of ERPs. The t-CWT is based on the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and Student's t-statistics. The method was tested in two ERP paradigms, oddball and semantic priming, by assessing individual-participant data on a single-trial basis, and testing the significance of selected ERP components, P300 and N400, as well as of whole ERP waveforms. The t-CWT was also compared to other univariate and multivariate ERP assessment methods: peak picking, area computation, discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and principal component analysis (PCA). The t-CWT produced better results than all of the other assessment methods it was compared with. The t-CWT can be used as a reliable and powerful method for ERP-component detection and testing of statistical hypotheses concerning both single ERP components and whole waveforms extracted from either single persons' or group data. The t-CWT is the first such method based explicitly on the criteria of maximal statistical difference between two average ERPs in the time-frequency domain and is particularly suitable for ERP assessment of individual data (e.g. in clinical settings), but also for the investigation of small and/or novel ERP effects from group data.

Colonization resistance and microbial ecophysiology: using gnotobiotic mouse models and single-cell technology to explore the intestinal jungle.

PubMed

Stecher, Bärbel; Berry, David; Loy, Alexander

2013-09-01

The highly diverse intestinal microbiota forms a structured community engaged in constant communication with itself and its host and is characterized by extensive ecological interactions. A key benefit that the microbiota affords its host is its ability to protect against infections in a process termed colonization resistance (CR), which remains insufficiently understood. In this review, we connect basic concepts of CR with new insights from recent years and highlight key technological advances in the field of microbial ecology. We present a selection of statistical and bioinformatics tools used to generate hypotheses about synergistic and antagonistic interactions in microbial ecosystems from metagenomic datasets. We emphasize the importance of experimentally testing these hypotheses and discuss the value of gnotobiotic mouse models for investigating specific aspects related to microbiota-host-pathogen interactions in a well-defined experimental system. We further introduce new developments in the area of single-cell analysis using fluorescence in situ hybridization in combination with metabolic stable isotope labeling technologies for studying the in vivo activities of complex community members. These approaches promise to yield novel insights into the mechanisms of CR and intestinal ecophysiology in general, and give researchers the means to experimentally test hypotheses in vivo at varying levels of biological and ecological complexity. © 2013 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of drop-off recycling in Norman, Oklahoma: Behavior of recyclers and nonrecyclers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sims, J.L.; Everett, J.W.

The reality of growing negative public opinion to new landfills prompted a newfound popularity for recycling programs as an alternative to traditional waste management in municipalities. The purpose of this research is to examine the behavioral and attitudinal differences between recyclers and nonrecyclers. These differences were tested statistically based on recycling behavior data gathered through two independent questionnaire surveys, one administered through utility bill statements, the other administered directly by the first author. Data were collected on: contact with the recycling organization, demographics, participation, convenience, incentives, ideological agreement, and assessment rationale. Seven hypotheses were tested, addressing most aspects of themore » Environmental Collective Action model (ECA), first proposed by the second author in 1994. The surveys were administered to City of Norman, Oklahoma residents. Norman operates several drop-off centers within the city limits. The results of the analysis indicate that individuals do make the decision to participate based on the principles outlined in the model of participation. All seven hypotheses are supported by the data in both surveys.« less

The Effect of a Zoo-Based Experiential Academic Science Program on High School Students' Math and Science Achievement and Perceptions of School Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulkerrin, Elizabeth A.

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of an 11th-grade and 12th-grade zoo-based academic high school experiential science program compared to a same school-district school-based academic high school experiential science program on students' pretest and posttest science, math, and reading achievement, and student perceptions of program relevance, rigor, and relationships. Science coursework delivery site served as the study's independent variable for the two naturally formed groups representing students (n = 18) who completed a zoo-based experiential academic high school science program and students (n = 18) who completed a school-based experiential academic high school science program. Students in the first group, a zoo-based experiential academic high school science program, completed real world, hands-on projects at the zoo while students in the second group, those students who completed a school-based experiential academic high school science program, completed real world, simulated projects in the classroom. These groups comprised the two research arms of the study. Both groups of students were selected from the same school district. The study's two dependent variables were achievement and school climate. Achievement was analyzed using norm-referenced 11th-grade pretest PLAN and 12th-grade posttest ACT test composite scores. Null hypotheses were rejected in the direction of improved test scores for both science program groups---students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program (p < .001) and students who completed the school-based experiential academic high school science program (p < .001). The posttest-posttest ACT test composite score comparison was not statistically different ( p = .93) indicating program equipoise for students enrolled in both science programs. No overall weighted grade point average score improvement was observed for students in either science group, however, null hypotheses were rejected in the direction of improved science grade point average scores for 11th-grade (p < .01) and 12th-grade (p = .01) students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program. Null hypotheses were not rejected for between group posttest science grade point average scores and school district criterion reference math and reading test scores. Finally, students who completed the zoo-based experiential academic high school science program had statistically improved pretest-posttest perceptions of program relationship scores (p < .05) and compared to students who completed the school-based experiential academic high school science program had statistically greater posttest perceptions of program relevance (p < .001), perceptions of program rigor (p < .001), and perceptions of program relationships (p < .001).

Statistical testing of association between menstruation and migraine.

PubMed

Barra, Mathias; Dahl, Fredrik A; Vetvik, Kjersti G

2015-02-01

To repair and refine a previously proposed method for statistical analysis of association between migraine and menstruation. Menstrually related migraine (MRM) affects about 20% of female migraineurs in the general population. The exact pathophysiological link from menstruation to migraine is hypothesized to be through fluctuations in female reproductive hormones, but the exact mechanisms remain unknown. Therefore, the main diagnostic criterion today is concurrency of migraine attacks with menstruation. Methods aiming to exclude spurious associations are wanted, so that further research into these mechanisms can be performed on a population with a true association. The statistical method is based on a simple two-parameter null model of MRM (which allows for simulation modeling), and Fisher's exact test (with mid-p correction) applied to standard 2 × 2 contingency tables derived from the patients' headache diaries. Our method is a corrected version of a previously published flawed framework. To our best knowledge, no other published methods for establishing a menstruation-migraine association by statistical means exist today. The probabilistic methodology shows good performance when subjected to receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. Quick reference cutoff values for the clinical setting were tabulated for assessing association given a patient's headache history. In this paper, we correct a proposed method for establishing association between menstruation and migraine by statistical methods. We conclude that the proposed standard of 3-cycle observations prior to setting an MRM diagnosis should be extended with at least one perimenstrual window to obtain sufficient information for statistical processing. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Evaluation of interactive teaching for undergraduate medical students using a classroom interactive response system in India.

PubMed

Datta, Rakesh; Datta, Karuna; Venkatesh, M D

2015-07-01

The classical didactic lecture has been the cornerstone of the theoretical undergraduate medical education. Their efficacy however reduces due to reduced interaction and short attention span of the students. It is hypothesized that the interactive response pad obviates some of these drawbacks. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive response system by comparing it with conventional classroom teaching. A prospective comparative longitudinal study was conducted on 192 students who were exposed to either conventional or interactive teaching over 20 classes. Pre-test, Post-test and retentions test (post 8-12 weeks) scores were collated and statistically analysed. An independent observer measured number of student interactions in each class. Pre-test scores from both groups were similar (p = 0.71). There was significant improvement in both post test scores when compared to pre-test scores in either method (p < 0.001). The interactive post-test score was better than conventional post test score (p < 0.001) by 8-10% (95% CI-difference of means - 8.2%-9.24%-10.3%). The interactive retention test score was better than conventional retention test score (p < 0.001) by 15-18% (95% CI-difference of means - 15.0%-16.64%-18.2%). There were 51 participative events in the interactive group vs 25 in the conventional group. The Interactive Response Pad method was efficacious in teaching. Students taught with the interactive method were likely to score 8-10% higher (statistically significant) in the immediate post class time and 15-18% higher (statistically significant) after 8-12 weeks. The number of student-teacher interactions increases when using the interactive response pads.

On the assessment of the added value of new predictive biomarkers.

PubMed

Chen, Weijie; Samuelson, Frank W; Gallas, Brandon D; Kang, Le; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

2013-07-29

The surge in biomarker development calls for research on statistical evaluation methodology to rigorously assess emerging biomarkers and classification models. Recently, several authors reported the puzzling observation that, in assessing the added value of new biomarkers to existing ones in a logistic regression model, statistical significance of new predictor variables does not necessarily translate into a statistically significant increase in the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Vickers et al. concluded that this inconsistency is because AUC "has vastly inferior statistical properties," i.e., it is extremely conservative. This statement is based on simulations that misuse the DeLong et al. method. Our purpose is to provide a fair comparison of the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the Wald test versus diagnostic accuracy (AUC) tests. We present a test to compare ideal AUCs of nested linear discriminant functions via an F test. We compare it with the LR test and the Wald test for the logistic regression model. The null hypotheses of these three tests are equivalent; however, the F test is an exact test whereas the LR test and the Wald test are asymptotic tests. Our simulation shows that the F test has the nominal type I error even with a small sample size. Our results also indicate that the LR test and the Wald test have inflated type I errors when the sample size is small, while the type I error converges to the nominal value asymptotically with increasing sample size as expected. We further show that the DeLong et al. method tests a different hypothesis and has the nominal type I error when it is used within its designed scope. Finally, we summarize the pros and cons of all four methods we consider in this paper. We show that there is nothing inherently less powerful or disagreeable about ROC analysis for showing the usefulness of new biomarkers or characterizing the performance of classification models. Each statistical method for assessing biomarkers and classification models has its own strengths and weaknesses. Investigators need to choose methods based on the assessment purpose, the biomarker development phase at which the assessment is being performed, the available patient data, and the validity of assumptions behind the methodologies.

Attentional control mediates the effect of social anxiety on positive affect☆

PubMed Central

Morrison, Amanda S.; Heimberg, Richard G.

2015-01-01

The goal of the present studies was to examine whether attentional control, a self-regulatory attentional mechanism, mediates the effect of social anxiety on positive affect. We tested this mediation in two studies using undergraduate students selected to represent a broad range of severity of social anxiety. Self-report assessments of social anxiety, attentional control, and positive affect were collected in a cross-sectional design (Study 1) and in a longitudinal design with three assessment points (Study 2). Results of both studies supported the hypothesized mediational model. Specifically, social anxiety was inversely related to attentional control, which itself positively predicted positive affect. This mediation remained significant even when statistically controlling for the effects of depression. Additionally, the hypothesized model provided superior model fit to theoretically-grounded equivalent models in both studies. Implications of these findings for understanding diminished positive affect in social anxiety are discussed. PMID:23254261

Some surprising facts about (the problem of) surprising facts (from the Dusseldorf Conference, February 2011).

PubMed

Mayo, D

2014-03-01

A common intuition about evidence is that if data x have been used to construct a hypothesis H, then x should not be used again in support of H. It is no surprise that x fits H, if H was deliberately constructed to accord with x. The question of when and why we should avoid such "double-counting" continues to be debated in philosophy and statistics. It arises as a prohibition against data mining, hunting for significance, tuning on the signal, and ad hoc hypotheses, and as a preference for predesignated hypotheses and "surprising" predictions. I have argued that it is the severity or probativeness of the test--or lack of it--that should determine whether a double-use of data is admissible. I examine a number of surprising ambiguities and unexpected facts that continue to bedevil this debate.

A quantitative analysis of factors influencing the professional longevity of high school science teachers in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridgley, James Alexander, Jr.

This dissertation is an exploratory quantitative analysis of various independent variables to determine their effect on the professional longevity (years of service) of high school science teachers in the state of Florida for the academic years 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. Data are collected from the Florida Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the National Assessment of Educational Progress databases. The following research hypotheses are examined: H1 - There are statistically significant differences in Level 1 (teacher variables) that influence the professional longevity of a high school science teacher in Florida. H2 - There are statistically significant differences in Level 2 (school variables) that influence the professional longevity of a high school science teacher in Florida. H3 - There are statistically significant differences in Level 3 (district variables) that influence the professional longevity of a high school science teacher in Florida. H4 - When tested in a hierarchical multiple regression, there are statistically significant differences in Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 that influence the professional longevity of a high school science teacher in Florida. The professional longevity of a Floridian high school science teacher is the dependent variable. The independent variables are: (Level 1) a teacher's sex, age, ethnicity, earned degree, salary, number of schools taught in, migration count, and various years of service in different areas of education; (Level 2) a school's geographic location, residential population density, average class size, charter status, and SES; and (Level 3) a school district's average SES and average spending per pupil. Statistical analyses of exploratory MLRs and a HMR are used to support the research hypotheses. The final results of the HMR analysis show a teacher's age, salary, earned degree (unknown, associate, and doctorate), and ethnicity (Hispanic and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander); a school's charter status; and a school district's average SES are all significant predictors of a Florida high school science teacher's professional longevity. Although statistically significant in the initial exploratory MLR analyses, a teacher's ethnicity (Asian and Black), a school's geographic location (city and rural), and a school's SES are not statistically significant in the final HMR model.

Trends in types of dermatology books available over the last ten years.

PubMed

Aquino, Lisa L; Wu, Jashin J

2009-06-15

Shifts in interest toward cosmetic and surgical dermatology and away from medical and academic dermatology have been observed in recent years. We hypothesized that this trend would be evident in the types of books available for purchase from a major medical textbook supplier. Books published from 1998-2008 were categorized by type and statistical testing was performed to determine if this trend has been reflected in books published. The percentage of medical dermatology books decreased over time, whereas the percentage of cosmetic and surgical dermatology books increased over time.

New methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Mokeshrayalu, G.; Balasiddamuni, P.

2017-11-01

This research paper discusses the method of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative Nonlinear Least Squares (NLLS) estimator. Takeshi Amemiya [1] explained this method. However in the present research paper, a modified Wald test statistic due to Engle, Robert [6] is proposed to test the nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator. An alternative method for testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear studentized residuals has been proposed. In this research article an innovative method of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative restricted NLLS estimator is derived. Pesaran and Deaton [10] explained the methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis. This paper uses asymptotic properties of nonlinear least squares estimator proposed by Jenrich [8]. The main purpose of this paper is to provide very innovative methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator, iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear studentized residuals and iterative restricted NLLS estimator. Eakambaram et al. [12] discussed least absolute deviation estimations versus nonlinear regression model with heteroscedastic errors and also they studied the problem of heteroscedasticity with reference to nonlinear regression models with suitable illustration. William Grene [13] examined the interaction effect in nonlinear models disused by Ai and Norton [14] and suggested ways to examine the effects that do not involve statistical testing. Peter [15] provided guidelines for identifying composite hypothesis and addressing the probability of false rejection for multiple hypotheses.

Statistics in biomedical laboratory and clinical science: applications, issues and pitfalls.

PubMed

Ludbrook, John

2008-01-01

This review is directed at biomedical scientists who want to gain a better understanding of statistics: what tests to use, when, and why. In my view, even during the planning stage of a study it is very important to seek the advice of a qualified biostatistician. When designing and analyzing a study, it is important to construct and test global hypotheses, rather than to make multiple tests on the data. If the latter cannot be avoided, it is essential to control the risk of making false-positive inferences by applying multiple comparison procedures. For comparing two means or two proportions, it is best to use exact permutation tests rather then the better known, classical, ones. For comparing many means, analysis of variance, often of a complex type, is the most powerful approach. The correlation coefficient should never be used to compare the performances of two methods of measurement, or two measures, because it does not detect bias. Instead the Altman-Bland method of differences or least-products linear regression analysis should be preferred. Finally, the educational value to investigators of interaction with a biostatistician, before, during and after a study, cannot be overemphasized. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaidi, Waqar H.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2016-01-01

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Accounting for regional background and population size in the detection of spatial clusters and outliers using geostatistical filtering and spatial neutral models: the case of lung cancer in Long Island, New York

PubMed Central

Goovaerts, Pierre; Jacquez, Geoffrey M

2004-01-01

Background Complete Spatial Randomness (CSR) is the null hypothesis employed by many statistical tests for spatial pattern, such as local cluster or boundary analysis. CSR is however not a relevant null hypothesis for highly complex and organized systems such as those encountered in the environmental and health sciences in which underlying spatial pattern is present. This paper presents a geostatistical approach to filter the noise caused by spatially varying population size and to generate spatially correlated neutral models that account for regional background obtained by geostatistical smoothing of observed mortality rates. These neutral models were used in conjunction with the local Moran statistics to identify spatial clusters and outliers in the geographical distribution of male and female lung cancer in Nassau, Queens, and Suffolk counties, New York, USA. Results We developed a typology of neutral models that progressively relaxes the assumptions of null hypotheses, allowing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation, non-uniform risk, and incorporation of spatially heterogeneous population sizes. Incorporation of spatial autocorrelation led to fewer significant ZIP codes than found in previous studies, confirming earlier claims that CSR can lead to over-identification of the number of significant spatial clusters or outliers. Accounting for population size through geostatistical filtering increased the size of clusters while removing most of the spatial outliers. Integration of regional background into the neutral models yielded substantially different spatial clusters and outliers, leading to the identification of ZIP codes where SMR values significantly depart from their regional background. Conclusion The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to assess geographic relationships using appropriate null hypotheses that account for the background variation extant in real-world systems. In particular, this new methodology allows one to identify geographic pattern above and beyond background variation. The implementation of this approach in spatial statistical software will facilitate the detection of spatial disparities in mortality rates, establishing the rationale for targeted cancer control interventions, including consideration of health services needs, and resource allocation for screening and diagnostic testing. It will allow researchers to systematically evaluate how sensitive their results are to assumptions implicit under alternative null hypotheses. PMID:15272930

The gap between knowledge on HIV/AIDS and sexual behavior: a study of teenagers in Vespasiano, Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

PubMed

Moura, Luciana Ramos de; Lamounier, Joyce Romano; Guimarães, Patrícia Regina; Duarte, Júlia Mesquita; Beling, Maria Tereza Cordeiro; Pinto, Jorge Andrade; Goulart, Eugênio Marcos de Andrade; Grillo, Cristiane de Freitas Cunha

2013-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate gaps between knowledge on HIV/AIDS and sexual behavior among teenagers. The study used a cross-sectional design with a representative random sample of 1,158 teenagers (14 to 19 years of age) enrolled in nine public secondary schools and who answered validated questionnaires. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and tests of hypotheses (chi-square, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis, Kendall, and Fisher's exact test). The vast majority of the teenagers (98.7%) expressed doubt on at least one question. Condom use during first sexual intercourse was significantly associated with condom use in sexual relations in the previous six months. There was no statistical association between knowledge on HIV/AIDS and frequency of condom use or number of sexual partners. Health actions are needed that link schools to health services, in addition to not only elaborating appropriate information but also valorizing teenagers' individuality in the development of proposals.

STAPP: Spatiotemporal analysis of plantar pressure measurements using statistical parametric mapping.

PubMed

Booth, Brian G; Keijsers, Noël L W; Sijbers, Jan; Huysmans, Toon

2018-05-03

Pedobarography produces large sets of plantar pressure samples that are routinely subsampled (e.g. using regions of interest) or aggregated (e.g. center of pressure trajectories, peak pressure images) in order to simplify statistical analysis and provide intuitive clinical measures. We hypothesize that these data reductions discard gait information that can be used to differentiate between groups or conditions. To test the hypothesis of null information loss, we created an implementation of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) for dynamic plantar pressure datasets (i.e. plantar pressure videos). Our SPM software framework brings all plantar pressure videos into anatomical and temporal correspondence, then performs statistical tests at each sampling location in space and time. Novelly, we introduce non-linear temporal registration into the framework in order to normalize for timing differences within the stance phase. We refer to our software framework as STAPP: spatiotemporal analysis of plantar pressure measurements. Using STAPP, we tested our hypothesis on plantar pressure videos from 33 healthy subjects walking at different speeds. As walking speed increased, STAPP was able to identify significant decreases in plantar pressure at mid-stance from the heel through the lateral forefoot. The extent of these plantar pressure decreases has not previously been observed using existing plantar pressure analysis techniques. We therefore conclude that the subsampling of plantar pressure videos - a task which led to the discarding of gait information in our study - can be avoided using STAPP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EvolQG - An R package for evolutionary quantitative genetics

PubMed Central

Melo, Diogo; Garcia, Guilherme; Hubbe, Alex; Assis, Ana Paula; Marroig, Gabriel

2016-01-01

We present an open source package for performing evolutionary quantitative genetics analyses in the R environment for statistical computing. Evolutionary theory shows that evolution depends critically on the available variation in a given population. When dealing with many quantitative traits this variation is expressed in the form of a covariance matrix, particularly the additive genetic covariance matrix or sometimes the phenotypic matrix, when the genetic matrix is unavailable and there is evidence the phenotypic matrix is sufficiently similar to the genetic matrix. Given this mathematical representation of available variation, the \\textbf{EvolQG} package provides functions for calculation of relevant evolutionary statistics; estimation of sampling error; corrections for this error; matrix comparison via correlations, distances and matrix decomposition; analysis of modularity patterns; and functions for testing evolutionary hypotheses on taxa diversification. PMID:27785352

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

A basic need theory approach to problematic Internet use and the mediating effect of psychological distress

PubMed Central

Wong, Ting Yat; Yuen, Kenneth S. L.; Li, Wang On

2015-01-01

The Internet provides an easily accessible way to meet certain needs. Over-reliance on it leads to problematic use, which studies show can be predicted by psychological distress. Self-determination theory proposes that we all have the basic need for autonomy, competency, and relatedness. This has been shown to explain the motivations behind problematic Internet use. This study hypothesizes that individuals who are psychologically disturbed because their basic needs are not being met are more vulnerable to becoming reliant on the Internet when they seek such needs satisfaction from online activities, and tests a model in which basic needs predict problematic Internet use, fully mediated by psychological distress. Problematic Internet use, psychological distress, and basic needs satisfaction were psychometrically measured in a sample of 229 Hong Kong University students and structural equation modeling was used to test the hypothesized model. All indices showed the model has a good fit. Further, statistical testing supported a mediation effect for psychological distress between needs satisfaction and problematic Internet use. The results extend our understanding of the development and prevention of problematic Internet use based on the framework of self-determination theory. Psychological distress could be used as an early predictor, while preventing and treating problematic Internet use should emphasize the fulfillment of unmet needs. PMID:25642201

A basic need theory approach to problematic Internet use and the mediating effect of psychological distress.

PubMed

Wong, Ting Yat; Yuen, Kenneth S L; Li, Wang On

2014-01-01

The Internet provides an easily accessible way to meet certain needs. Over-reliance on it leads to problematic use, which studies show can be predicted by psychological distress. Self-determination theory proposes that we all have the basic need for autonomy, competency, and relatedness. This has been shown to explain the motivations behind problematic Internet use. This study hypothesizes that individuals who are psychologically disturbed because their basic needs are not being met are more vulnerable to becoming reliant on the Internet when they seek such needs satisfaction from online activities, and tests a model in which basic needs predict problematic Internet use, fully mediated by psychological distress. Problematic Internet use, psychological distress, and basic needs satisfaction were psychometrically measured in a sample of 229 Hong Kong University students and structural equation modeling was used to test the hypothesized model. All indices showed the model has a good fit. Further, statistical testing supported a mediation effect for psychological distress between needs satisfaction and problematic Internet use. The results extend our understanding of the development and prevention of problematic Internet use based on the framework of self-determination theory. Psychological distress could be used as an early predictor, while preventing and treating problematic Internet use should emphasize the fulfillment of unmet needs.

Willingness to Share Research Data Is Related to the Strength of the Evidence and the Quality of Reporting of Statistical Results

PubMed Central

Wicherts, Jelte M.; Bakker, Marjan; Molenaar, Dylan

2011-01-01

Background The widespread reluctance to share published research data is often hypothesized to be due to the authors' fear that reanalysis may expose errors in their work or may produce conclusions that contradict their own. However, these hypotheses have not previously been studied systematically. Methods and Findings We related the reluctance to share research data for reanalysis to 1148 statistically significant results reported in 49 papers published in two major psychology journals. We found the reluctance to share data to be associated with weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect) and a higher prevalence of apparent errors in the reporting of statistical results. The unwillingness to share data was particularly clear when reporting errors had a bearing on statistical significance. Conclusions Our findings on the basis of psychological papers suggest that statistical results are particularly hard to verify when reanalysis is more likely to lead to contrasting conclusions. This highlights the importance of establishing mandatory data archiving policies. PMID:22073203

Testing deformation hypotheses by constraints on a time series of geodetic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velsink, Hiddo

2018-01-01

In geodetic deformation analysis observations are used to identify form and size changes of a geodetic network, representing objects on the earth's surface. The network points are monitored, often continuously, because of suspected deformations. A deformation may affect many points during many epochs. The problem is that the best description of the deformation is, in general, unknown. To find it, different hypothesised deformation models have to be tested systematically for agreement with the observations. The tests have to be capable of stating with a certain probability the size of detectable deformations, and to be datum invariant. A statistical criterion is needed to find the best deformation model. Existing methods do not fulfil these requirements. Here we propose a method that formulates the different hypotheses as sets of constraints on the parameters of a least-squares adjustment model. The constraints can relate to subsets of epochs and to subsets of points, thus combining time series analysis and congruence model analysis. The constraints are formulated as nonstochastic observations in an adjustment model of observation equations. This gives an easy way to test the constraints and to get a quality description. The proposed method aims at providing a good discriminating method to find the best description of a deformation. The method is expected to improve the quality of geodetic deformation analysis. We demonstrate the method with an elaborate example.

Why Waveform Correlation Sometimes Fails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, J.

2015-12-01

Waveform correlation detectors used in explosion monitoring scan noisy geophysical data to test two competing hypotheses: either (1) an amplitude-scaled version of a template waveform is present, or, (2) no signal is present at all. In reality, geophysical wavefields that are monitored for explosion signatures include waveforms produced by non-target sources that are partially correlated with the waveform template. Such signals can falsely trigger correlation detectors, particularly at low thresholds required to monitor for smaller target explosions. This challenge is particularly formidable when monitoring known test sites for seismic disturbances, since uncatalogued natural seismicity is (generally) more prevalent at lower magnitudes, and could be mistaken for small explosions. To address these challenges, we identify real examples in which correlation detectors targeting explosions falsely trigger on both site-proximal earthquakes (Figure 1, below) and microseismic "noise". Motivated by these examples, we quantify performance loss when applying these detectors, and re-evaluate the correlation-detector's hypothesis test. We thereby derive new detectors from more general hypotheses that admit unknown background seismicity, and apply these to real data. From our treatment, we derive "rules of thumb'' for proper template and threshold selection in heavily cluttered signal environments. Last, we answer the question "what is the probability of falsely detecting an earthquake collocated at a test site?", using correlation detectors that include explosion-triggered templates. Figure Top: An eight-channel data stream (black) recorded from an earthquake near a mine. Red markers indicate a detection. Middle: The correlation statistic computed by scanning the template against the data stream at top. The red line indicates the threshold for event declaration, determined by a false-alarm on noise probability constraint, as computed from the signal-absent distribution using the Neyman Pearson criteria. Bottom: The histogram of the correlation statistic time series (gray) superimposed on the theoretical null distribution (black curve). The line shows the threshold, consistent with a right-tail probability, computed from the black curve.

Identification of differentially expressed genes and false discovery rate in microarray studies.

PubMed

Gusnanto, Arief; Calza, Stefano; Pawitan, Yudi

2007-04-01

To highlight the development in microarray data analysis for the identification of differentially expressed genes, particularly via control of false discovery rate. The emergence of high-throughput technology such as microarrays raises two fundamental statistical issues: multiplicity and sensitivity. We focus on the biological problem of identifying differentially expressed genes. First, multiplicity arises due to testing tens of thousands of hypotheses, rendering the standard P value meaningless. Second, known optimal single-test procedures such as the t-test perform poorly in the context of highly multiple tests. The standard approach of dealing with multiplicity is too conservative in the microarray context. The false discovery rate concept is fast becoming the key statistical assessment tool replacing the P value. We review the false discovery rate approach and argue that it is more sensible for microarray data. We also discuss some methods to take into account additional information from the microarrays to improve the false discovery rate. There is growing consensus on how to analyse microarray data using the false discovery rate framework in place of the classical P value. Further research is needed on the preprocessing of the raw data, such as the normalization step and filtering, and on finding the most sensitive test procedure.

The role of workaholism in the job demands-resources model.

PubMed

Molino, Monica; Bakker, Arnold B; Ghislieri, Chiara

2016-07-01

The present study tries to gain more insight in workaholism by investigating its antecedents and consequences using the job demands-resources model. We hypothesized that job demands would be positively related to workaholism, particularly when job resources are low. In addition, we hypothesized that workaholism would be positively related to negative outcomes in three important life domains: health, family, and work. The research involved 617 Italian workers (employees and self-employed). To test the hypotheses we applied structural equation modeling (SEM) and moderated structural equation modeling (MSEM) using Mplus 6. The results of SEM showed a good model where workload, cognitive demands, emotional demands, and customer-related social stressors were positively related to workaholism and work-family conflict (WFC) (partial mediation). Additionally, workaholism was indirectly related to exhaustion and intentions to change jobs through WFC. Moreover, MSEM analyses confirmed that job resources (job security and opportunities for development) buffered the relationship between job demands and workaholism. Particularly, the interaction effects were statistically significant in five out of eight combinations. These findings suggest that workaholism is a function of a suboptimal work environment and predicts unfavorable employee outcomes. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

Beyond the Sparsity-Based Target Detector: A Hybrid Sparsity and Statistics Based Detector for Hyperspectral Images.

PubMed

Du, Bo; Zhang, Yuxiang; Zhang, Liangpei; Tao, Dacheng

2016-08-18

Hyperspectral images provide great potential for target detection, however, new challenges are also introduced for hyperspectral target detection, resulting that hyperspectral target detection should be treated as a new problem and modeled differently. Many classical detectors are proposed based on the linear mixing model and the sparsity model. However, the former type of model cannot deal well with spectral variability in limited endmembers, and the latter type of model usually treats the target detection as a simple classification problem and pays less attention to the low target probability. In this case, can we find an efficient way to utilize both the high-dimension features behind hyperspectral images and the limited target information to extract small targets? This paper proposes a novel sparsitybased detector named the hybrid sparsity and statistics detector (HSSD) for target detection in hyperspectral imagery, which can effectively deal with the above two problems. The proposed algorithm designs a hypothesis-specific dictionary based on the prior hypotheses for the test pixel, which can avoid the imbalanced number of training samples for a class-specific dictionary. Then, a purification process is employed for the background training samples in order to construct an effective competition between the two hypotheses. Next, a sparse representation based binary hypothesis model merged with additive Gaussian noise is proposed to represent the image. Finally, a generalized likelihood ratio test is performed to obtain a more robust detection decision than the reconstruction residual based detection methods. Extensive experimental results with three hyperspectral datasets confirm that the proposed HSSD algorithm clearly outperforms the stateof- the-art target detectors.

A unified framework for weighted parametric multiple test procedures.

PubMed

Xi, Dong; Glimm, Ekkehard; Maurer, Willi; Bretz, Frank

2017-09-01

We describe a general framework for weighted parametric multiple test procedures based on the closure principle. We utilize general weighting strategies that can reflect complex study objectives and include many procedures in the literature as special cases. The proposed weighted parametric tests bridge the gap between rejection rules using either adjusted significance levels or adjusted p-values. This connection is made by allowing intersection hypotheses of the underlying closed test procedure to be tested at level smaller than α. This may be also necessary to take certain study situations into account. For such cases we introduce a subclass of exact α-level parametric tests that satisfy the consonance property. When the correlation is known only for certain subsets of the test statistics, a new procedure is proposed to fully utilize this knowledge within each subset. We illustrate the proposed weighted parametric tests using a clinical trial example and conduct a simulation study to investigate its operating characteristics. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Effect of Task Presentation on Students' Performances in Introductory Statistics Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tomasetto, Carlo; Matteucci, Maria Cristina; Carugati, Felice; Selleri, Patrizia

2009-01-01

Research on academic learning indicates that many students experience major difficulties with introductory statistics and methodology courses. We hypothesized that students' difficulties may depend in part on the fact that statistics tasks are commonly viewed as related to the threatening domain of math. In two field experiments which we carried…

A closer look at the effect of preliminary goodness-of-fit testing for normality for the one-sample t-test.

PubMed

Rochon, Justine; Kieser, Meinhard

2011-11-01

Student's one-sample t-test is a commonly used method when inference about the population mean is made. As advocated in textbooks and articles, the assumption of normality is often checked by a preliminary goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. In a paper recently published by Schucany and Ng it was shown that, for the uniform distribution, screening of samples by a pretest for normality leads to a more conservative conditional Type I error rate than application of the one-sample t-test without preliminary GOF test. In contrast, for the exponential distribution, the conditional level is even more elevated than the Type I error rate of the t-test without pretest. We examine the reasons behind these characteristics. In a simulation study, samples drawn from the exponential, lognormal, uniform, Student's t-distribution with 2 degrees of freedom (t(2) ) and the standard normal distribution that had passed normality screening, as well as the ingredients of the test statistics calculated from these samples, are investigated. For non-normal distributions, we found that preliminary testing for normality may change the distribution of means and standard deviations of the selected samples as well as the correlation between them (if the underlying distribution is non-symmetric), thus leading to altered distributions of the resulting test statistics. It is shown that for skewed distributions the excess in Type I error rate may be even more pronounced when testing one-sided hypotheses. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

A Robust Semi-Parametric Test for Detecting Trait-Dependent Diversification.

PubMed

Rabosky, Daniel L; Huang, Huateng

2016-03-01

Rates of species diversification vary widely across the tree of life and there is considerable interest in identifying organismal traits that correlate with rates of speciation and extinction. However, it has been challenging to develop methodological frameworks for testing hypotheses about trait-dependent diversification that are robust to phylogenetic pseudoreplication and to directionally biased rates of character change. We describe a semi-parametric test for trait-dependent diversification that explicitly requires replicated associations between character states and diversification rates to detect effects. To use the method, diversification rates are reconstructed across a phylogenetic tree with no consideration of character states. A test statistic is then computed to measure the association between species-level traits and the corresponding diversification rate estimates at the tips of the tree. The empirical value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution that is generated by structured permutations of evolutionary rates across the phylogeny. The test is applicable to binary discrete characters as well as continuous-valued traits and can accommodate extremely sparse sampling of character states at the tips of the tree. We apply the test to several empirical data sets and demonstrate that the method has acceptable Type I error rates. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mapping Quantitative Traits in Unselected Families: Algorithms and Examples

PubMed Central

Dupuis, Josée; Shi, Jianxin; Manning, Alisa K.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Meigs, James B.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Siegmund, David

2009-01-01

Linkage analysis has been widely used to identify from family data genetic variants influencing quantitative traits. Common approaches have both strengths and limitations. Likelihood ratio tests typically computed in variance component analysis can accommodate large families but are highly sensitive to departure from normality assumptions. Regression-based approaches are more robust but their use has primarily been restricted to nuclear families. In this paper, we develop methods for mapping quantitative traits in moderately large pedigrees. Our methods are based on the score statistic which in contrast to the likelihood ratio statistic, can use nonparametric estimators of variability to achieve robustness of the false positive rate against departures from the hypothesized phenotypic model. Because the score statistic is easier to calculate than the likelihood ratio statistic, our basic mapping methods utilize relatively simple computer code that performs statistical analysis on output from any program that computes estimates of identity-by-descent. This simplicity also permits development and evaluation of methods to deal with multivariate and ordinal phenotypes, and with gene-gene and gene-environment interaction. We demonstrate our methods on simulated data and on fasting insulin, a quantitative trait measured in the Framingham Heart Study. PMID:19278016

Enrichment analysis in high-throughput genomics - accounting for dependency in the NULL.

PubMed

Gold, David L; Coombes, Kevin R; Wang, Jing; Mallick, Bani

2007-03-01

Translating the overwhelming amount of data generated in high-throughput genomics experiments into biologically meaningful evidence, which may for example point to a series of biomarkers or hint at a relevant pathway, is a matter of great interest in bioinformatics these days. Genes showing similar experimental profiles, it is hypothesized, share biological mechanisms that if understood could provide clues to the molecular processes leading to pathological events. It is the topic of further study to learn if or how a priori information about the known genes may serve to explain coexpression. One popular method of knowledge discovery in high-throughput genomics experiments, enrichment analysis (EA), seeks to infer if an interesting collection of genes is 'enriched' for a Consortium particular set of a priori Gene Ontology Consortium (GO) classes. For the purposes of statistical testing, the conventional methods offered in EA software implicitly assume independence between the GO classes. Genes may be annotated for more than one biological classification, and therefore the resulting test statistics of enrichment between GO classes can be highly dependent if the overlapping gene sets are relatively large. There is a need to formally determine if conventional EA results are robust to the independence assumption. We derive the exact null distribution for testing enrichment of GO classes by relaxing the independence assumption using well-known statistical theory. In applications with publicly available data sets, our test results are similar to the conventional approach which assumes independence. We argue that the independence assumption is not detrimental.

Enhancing Dairy Manufacturing through customer feedback: A statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vineesh, D.; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Narassima, M. S.

2018-02-01

Dairy products have become inevitable of habitual diet. This study aims to investigate the consumers’ satisfaction towards dairy products so as to provide useful information for the manufacturers which would serve as useful inputs for enriching the quality of products delivered. The study involved consumers of dairy products from various demographical backgrounds across South India. The questionnaire focussed on quality aspects of dairy products and also the service provided. A customer satisfaction model was developed based on various factors identified, with robust hypotheses that govern the use of the product. The developed model proved to be statistically significant as it passed the required statistical tests for reliability, construct validity and interdependency between the constructs. Some major concerns detected were regarding the fat content, taste and odour of packaged milk. A minor proportion of people (15.64%) were unsatisfied with the quality of service provided, which is another issue to be addressed to eliminate the sense of dissatisfaction in the minds of consumers.

Towards a Phylogenetic Approach to the Composition of Species Complexes in the North and Central American Triatoma, Vectors of Chagas Disease

PubMed Central

de la Rúa, Nicholas M.; Bustamante, Dulce M.; Menes, Marianela; Stevens, Lori; Monroy, Carlota; Kilpatrick, William; Rizzo, Donna; Klotz, Stephen A.; Schmidt, Justin; Axen, Heather J.; Dorn, Patricia L.

2014-01-01

Phylogenetic relationships of insect vectors of parasitic diseases are important for understanding the evolution of epidemiologically relevant traits, and may be useful in vector control. The subfamily Triatominae (Hemiptera:Reduviidae) includes ~140 extant species arranged in five tribes comprised of 15 genera. The genus Triatoma is the most species-rich and contains important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease. Triatoma species were grouped into complexes originally by morphology and more recently with the addition of information from molecular phylogenetics (the four-complex hypothesis); however, without a strict adherence to monophyly. To date, the validity of proposed species complexes has not been tested by statistical tests of topology. The goal of this study was to clarify the systematics of 19 Triatoma species from North and Central America. We inferred their evolutionary relatedness using two independent data sets: the complete nuclear Internal Transcribed Spacer-2 ribosomal DNA (ITS-2 rDNA) and head morphometrics. In addition, we used the Shimodaira-Hasegawa statistical test of topology to assess the fit of the data to a set of competing systematic hypotheses (topologies). An unconstrained topology inferred from the ITS-2 data was compared to topologies constrained based on the four-complex hypothesis or one inferred from our morphometry results. The unconstrained topology represents a statistically significant better fit of the molecular data than either the four-complex or the morphometric topology. We propose an update to the composition of species complexes in the North and Central American Triatoma, based on a phylogeny inferred from ITS-2 as a first step towards updating the phylogeny of the complexes based on monophyly and statistical tests of topologies. PMID:24681261

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics. PMID:28173504

Testing hypotheses for differences between linear regression lines

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch

2009-01-01

Five hypotheses are identified for testing differences between simple linear regression lines. The distinctions between these hypotheses are based on a priori assumptions and illustrated with full and reduced models. The contrast approach is presented as an easy and complete method for testing for overall differences between the regressions and for making pairwise...

Multiple comparisons permutation test for image based data mining in radiotherapy.

PubMed

Chen, Chun; Witte, Marnix; Heemsbergen, Wilma; van Herk, Marcel

2013-12-23

: Comparing incidental dose distributions (i.e. images) of patients with different outcomes is a straightforward way to explore dose-response hypotheses in radiotherapy. In this paper, we introduced a permutation test that compares images, such as dose distributions from radiotherapy, while tackling the multiple comparisons problem. A test statistic Tmax was proposed that summarizes the differences between the images into a single value and a permutation procedure was employed to compute the adjusted p-value. We demonstrated the method in two retrospective studies: a prostate study that relates 3D dose distributions to failure, and an esophagus study that relates 2D surface dose distributions of the esophagus to acute esophagus toxicity. As a result, we were able to identify suspicious regions that are significantly associated with failure (prostate study) or toxicity (esophagus study). Permutation testing allows direct comparison of images from different patient categories and is a useful tool for data mining in radiotherapy.

Kinesthetic sensitivity and related measures of hand sensitivity in children with nonproficient handwriting.

PubMed

Brink, Anne O'Leary; Jacobs, Anne Burleigh

2011-01-01

This study compared measures of hand sensitivity and handwriting quality in children aged 10 to 12 years identified by their teachers as having nonproficient or proficient handwriting. We hypothesized that children with nonproficient handwriting have decreased kinesthetic sensitivity of the hands and digits. Sixteen subjects without documented motor or cognitive concerns were tested for kinesthetic sensitivity, discriminate tactile awareness, diadochokinesia, stereognosis, and graphesthesia. Eight children were considered to have nonproficient handwriting; 8 had proficient handwriting. Nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests were used to identify differences between groups on sensory tests. The 2 groups showed a statistically significant difference in handwriting legibility (P = .018). No significant difference was found on tests of kinesthetic sensitivity or other measures of sensation. Children presenting with handwriting difficulty as the only complaint have similar sensitivity in hands and digits as those with proficient handwriting. Failure to detect differences may result from a small sample size.

Investigation of possible causes for human-performance degradation during microgravity flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, James E.; Tuttle, Megan L.

1992-01-01

The results of the first year of a three year study of the effects of microgravity on human performance are given. Test results show support for the hypothesis that the effects of microgravity can be studied indirectly on Earth by measuring performance in an altered gravitational field. The hypothesis was that an altered gravitational field could disrupt performance on previously automated behaviors if gravity was a critical part of the stimulus complex controlling those behaviors. In addition, it was proposed that performance on secondary cognitive tasks would also degrade, especially if the subject was provided feedback about degradation on the previously automated task. In the initial experimental test of these hypotheses, there was little statistical support. However, when subjects were categorized as high or low in automated behavior, results for the former group supported the hypotheses. The predicted interaction between body orientation and level of workload in their joint effect on performance in the secondary cognitive task was significant for the group high in automatized behavior and receiving feedback, but no such interventions were found for the group high in automatized behavior but not receiving feedback, or the group low in automatized behavior.

Are there pollination syndromes in the Australian epacrids (Ericaceae: Styphelioideae)? A novel statistical method to identify key floral traits per syndrome

PubMed Central

Johnson, Karen A.

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Convergent floral traits hypothesized as attracting particular pollinators are known as pollination syndromes. Floral diversity suggests that the Australian epacrid flora may be adapted to pollinator type. Currently there are empirical data on the pollination systems for 87 species (approx. 15 % of Australian epacrids). This provides an opportunity to test for pollination syndromes and their important morphological traits in an iconic element of the Australian flora. Methods Data on epacrid–pollinator relationships were obtained from published literature and field observation. A multivariate approach was used to test whether epacrid floral attributes related to pollinator profiles. Statistical classification was then used to rank floral attributes according to their predictive value. Data sets excluding mixed pollination systems were used to test the predictive power of statistical classification to identify pollination models. Key Results Floral attributes are correlated with bird, fly and bee pollination. Using floral attributes identified as correlating with pollinator type, bird pollination is classified with 86 % accuracy, red flowers being the most important predictor. Fly and bee pollination are classified with 78 and 69 % accuracy, but have a lack of individually important floral predictors. Excluding mixed pollination systems improved the accuracy of the prediction of both bee and fly pollination systems. Conclusions Although most epacrids have generalized pollination systems, a correlation between bird pollination and red, long-tubed epacrids is found. Statistical classification highlights the relative importance of each floral attribute in relation to pollinator type and proves useful in classifying epacrids to bird, fly and bee pollination systems. PMID:23681546

Scientific thinking in young children: theoretical advances, empirical research, and policy implications.

PubMed

Gopnik, Alison

2012-09-28

New theoretical ideas and empirical research show that very young children's learning and thinking are strikingly similar to much learning and thinking in science. Preschoolers test hypotheses against data and make causal inferences; they learn from statistics and informal experimentation, and from watching and listening to others. The mathematical framework of probabilistic models and Bayesian inference can describe this learning in precise ways. These discoveries have implications for early childhood education and policy. In particular, they suggest both that early childhood experience is extremely important and that the trend toward more structured and academic early childhood programs is misguided.

Consider the Alternative: The Effects of Causal Knowledge on Representing and Using Alternative Hypotheses in Judgments under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Brett K.; Hawkins, Guy E.; Newell, Ben R.

2016-01-01

Four experiments examined the locus of impact of causal knowledge on consideration of alternative hypotheses in judgments under uncertainty. Two possible loci were examined; overcoming neglect of the alternative when developing a representation of a judgment problem and improving utilization of statistics associated with the alternative…

Statistical properties of interval mapping methods on quantitative trait loci location: impact on QTL/eQTL analyses

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection on a huge amount of phenotypes, like eQTL detection on transcriptomic data, can be dramatically impaired by the statistical properties of interval mapping methods. One of these major outcomes is the high number of QTL detected at marker locations. The present study aims at identifying and specifying the sources of this bias, in particular in the case of analysis of data issued from outbred populations. Analytical developments were carried out in a backcross situation in order to specify the bias and to propose an algorithm to control it. The outbred population context was studied through simulated data sets in a wide range of situations. The likelihood ratio test was firstly analyzed under the "one QTL" hypothesis in a backcross population. Designs of sib families were then simulated and analyzed using the QTL Map software. On the basis of the theoretical results in backcross, parameters such as the population size, the density of the genetic map, the QTL effect and the true location of the QTL, were taken into account under the "no QTL" and the "one QTL" hypotheses. A combination of two non parametric tests - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test - was used in order to identify the parameters that affected the bias and to specify how much they influenced the estimation of QTL location. Results A theoretical expression of the bias of the estimated QTL location was obtained for a backcross type population. We demonstrated a common source of bias under the "no QTL" and the "one QTL" hypotheses and qualified the possible influence of several parameters. Simulation studies confirmed that the bias exists in outbred populations under both the hypotheses of "no QTL" and "one QTL" on a linkage group. The QTL location was systematically closer to marker locations than expected, particularly in the case of low QTL effect, small population size or low density of markers, i.e. designs with low power. Practical recommendations for experimental designs for QTL detection in outbred populations are given on the basis of this bias quantification. Furthermore, an original algorithm is proposed to adjust the location of a QTL, obtained with interval mapping, which co located with a marker. Conclusions Therefore, one should be attentive when one QTL is mapped at the location of one marker, especially under low power conditions. PMID:22520935

IN VITRO INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LACTIC ACID SOLUTION AND ART GLASS-IONOMER CEMENTS

PubMed Central

Wang, Linda; Cefaly, Daniela Francisca Gigo; dos Santos, Janaína Lima; dos Santos, Jean Rodrigo; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; Mondelli, Rafael Francisco Lia; Atta, Maria Teresa

2009-01-01

Objectives: Production of acids such as lactic acid contributes to establish a cariogenic environment that leads to dental substrate demineralization. Fluoride plays an important role in this case and, as fluoride-releasing materials, glass-ionomer cements are expected to contribute to minimize deleterious reactions. This study evaluated interactions of glass-ionomer cements used in atraumatic restorative treatment (ART-GICs) with an aqueous lactic acid solution, testing the null hypotheses that no changes occur in the pH of the solution or on the surface roughness and mass of the ART-GICs when exposed to lactic acid solution over a 6-week period. Material and Methods: Ketac Molar, Fuji IX, Vitro Molar and Magic Glass were tested, and compared to Filtek Z250 and Ketac Fil Plus as control groups. Six specimens of each material were made according to manufacturers' instructions. The pH of the solution and roughness and mass changes of each specimen were determined over 6 weeks. Each specimen was individually stored in 2 mL of 0.02 M lactic acid solution for 1 week, renewing the solution every week. pH of solution and mass of the specimens were monitored weekly, and surface roughness of the specimens was assessed before and at the end of the 6-week acid challenge. pH and mass data were analyzed statistically by repeated measures using one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post-hoc tests for each material. Paired t-tests were used for roughness analysis. Tukey's post-hoc tests were applied to verify differences of final roughness among the materials. Significance level was set at 5%. Results: The null hypotheses were partially rejected. All materials were able to increase the pH of the lactic acid solution and presented rougher surfaces after immersion, while mass change was minimal and generally not statistically significant. Conclusions: These findings can be helpful to predict the performance of these materials under clinical conditions. A protective action against the carious process with significant surface damage due to erosion may be expected. PMID:19668984

Online incidental statistical learning of audiovisual word sequences in adults: a registered report

PubMed Central

Duta, Mihaela; Thompson, Paul

2018-01-01

Statistical learning has been proposed as a key mechanism in language learning. Our main goal was to examine whether adults are capable of simultaneously extracting statistical dependencies in a task where stimuli include a range of structures amenable to statistical learning within a single paradigm. We devised an online statistical learning task using real word auditory–picture sequences that vary in two dimensions: (i) predictability and (ii) adjacency of dependent elements. This task was followed by an offline recall task to probe learning of each sequence type. We registered three hypotheses with specific predictions. First, adults would extract regular patterns from continuous stream (effect of grammaticality). Second, within grammatical conditions, they would show differential speeding up for each condition as a factor of statistical complexity of the condition and exposure. Third, our novel approach to measure online statistical learning would be reliable in showing individual differences in statistical learning ability. Further, we explored the relation between statistical learning and a measure of verbal short-term memory (STM). Forty-two participants were tested and retested after an interval of at least 3 days on our novel statistical learning task. We analysed the reaction time data using a novel regression discontinuity approach. Consistent with prediction, participants showed a grammaticality effect, agreeing with the predicted order of difficulty for learning different statistical structures. Furthermore, a learning index from the task showed acceptable test–retest reliability (r = 0.67). However, STM did not correlate with statistical learning. We discuss the findings noting the benefits of online measures in tracking the learning process. PMID:29515876

“Magnitude-based Inference”: A Statistical Review

PubMed Central

Welsh, Alan H.; Knight, Emma J.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose We consider “magnitude-based inference” and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. Methods We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how “magnitude-based inference” is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. Results and Conclusions We show that “magnitude-based inference” is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with “magnitude-based inference” and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using “magnitude-based inference,” a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis. PMID:25051387

A supportive-educative telephone program: impact on knowledge and anxiety after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Beckie, T

1989-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of a supportive-educative telephone program on the levels of knowledge and anxiety of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery during the first 6 weeks after hospital discharge. With a posttest-only control group design, the first 74 patients scheduled, between September 1986 and February 1987, for coronary artery bypass graft surgery in a large, western Canadian teaching hospital were randomly assigned to either an experimental or a control group. The effect of the intervention, which was implemented by a cardiac rehabilitation nurse specialist, was assessed by a knowledge test and a state anxiety inventory. Data were collected without knowledge of the participants' group assignment. As hypothesized, data analysis with independent t tests revealed a statistically significant (p less than 0.05) difference between the knowledge level of the experimental and the control group in the areas of coronary artery disease, diet, medications, physical activity restrictions, exercise, and rest. A statistically significant difference between the state anxiety level of the experimental and the control group was also evident, as was a statistically significant inverse relationship between participants' knowledge and anxiety levels. From these findings, several implications and recommendations for nursing practice and research have been generated.

Personality and symptom change in treatment-refractory inpatients: evaluation of the phase model of change using Rorschach,TAT, and DSM-IV Axis V.

PubMed

Fowler, J Christopher; Ackerman, Steven J; Speanburg, Stefanie; Bailey, Adrian; Blagys, Matthew; Conklin, Adam C

2004-12-01

In this study, we examined global treatment outcomes during 16 months of intensive, psychodynamic treatment for 77 inpatients suffering from treatment-refractory disorders. Hypotheses based on the phase model of treatment change (Howard, Lueger, Maling, & Martinovich, 1993; Howard, Moras, Brill, Martinovich, & Lutz, 1996) were supported in the study results. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) Axis V scales assessing behavioral functioning demonstrated large and medium effect size change, whereas stable, enduring personality functioning assessed by psychoanalytic Rorschach scales and the Social Cognition and Object Relations Scale (Westen, 1995) for the Thematic Apperception Test (Murray, 1943) demonstrated small and medium effect size change. We also report assessment of reliable change index and clinical significance. The ecological validity of Rorschach measures is supported by significant validity coefficients (in the hypothesized directions) between implicit measures of personality functioning and behavioral ratings.

Navigating the cancer information environment: The reciprocal relationship between patient-clinician information engagement and information seeking from nonmedical sources.

PubMed

Moldovan-Johnson, Mihaela; Tan, Andy S L; Hornik, Robert C

2014-01-01

Prior theory has argued and empirical studies have shown that cancer patients rely on information from their health care providers as well as lay sources to understand and make decisions about their disease. However, research on the dynamic and interdependent nature of cancer patients' engagement with different information sources is lacking. This study tested the hypotheses that patient-clinician information engagement and information seeking from nonmedical sources influence one another longitudinally among a representative cohort of 1,293 cancer survivors in Pennsylvania. The study hypotheses were supported in a series of lagged multiple regression analyses. Baseline seeking information from nonmedical sources positively predicted subsequent patient-clinician information engagement at 1-year follow-up. The reverse relationship was also statistically significant; baseline patient-clinician information engagement positively predicted information seeking from nonmedical sources at follow-up. These findings suggest that cancer survivors move between nonmedical and clinician sources in a dynamic way to learn about their disease.

Granger causality--statistical analysis under a configural perspective.

PubMed

von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang; Mun, Eun-Young

2014-03-01

The concept of Granger causality can be used to examine putative causal relations between two series of scores. Based on regression models, it is asked whether one series can be considered the cause for the second series. In this article, we propose extending the pool of methods available for testing hypotheses that are compatible with Granger causation by adopting a configural perspective. This perspective allows researchers to assume that effects exist for specific categories only or for specific sectors of the data space, but not for other categories or sectors. Configural Frequency Analysis (CFA) is proposed as the method of analysis from a configural perspective. CFA base models are derived for the exploratory analysis of Granger causation. These models are specified so that they parallel the regression models used for variable-oriented analysis of hypotheses of Granger causation. An example from the development of aggression in adolescence is used. The example shows that only one pattern of change in aggressive impulses over time Granger-causes change in physical aggression against peers.

The stratifying role of job level for sickness absence and the moderating role of gender and occupational gender composition.

PubMed

Kröger, Hannes

2017-08-01

The study investigates whether sickness absence is stratified by job level - understood as the authority and autonomy a worker holds - beyond the association with education, income, and occupation. A second objective is to establish the moderating role of gender and occupational gender composition on this stratification of sickness absence. Four competing hypotheses are developed that predict different patterns of moderation. Associations between job level and sickness absence are estimated for men and women in three groups of differing occupational gender composition, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). For the purpose of moderation analysis, this study employs a new method based on Bayesian statistics, which enables the testing of complex moderation hypotheses. The data support the hypothesis that the stratification of sickness absence by job level is strongest for occupational minorities, meaning men in female-dominated and women in male-dominated occupations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Navigating the cancer information environment: The reciprocal relationship between patient-clinician information engagement and information seeking from nonmedical sources

PubMed Central

Moldovan-Johnson, Mihaela; Tan, Andy SL; Hornik, Robert C

2014-01-01

Prior theory has argued and empirical studies have shown that cancer patients rely on information from their health care providers as well as lay sources to understand and make decisions about their disease. However, research on the dynamic and interdependent nature of cancer patients’ engagement with different information sources is lacking. This study tested the hypotheses that patient-clinician information engagement and information seeking from nonmedical sources influence one another longitudinally among a representative cohort of 1,293 cancer survivors in Pennsylvania. The study hypotheses were supported in a series of lagged multiple regression analyses. Baseline seeking information from nonmedical sources positively predicted subsequent patient-clinician information engagement at one-year follow-up. The reverse relationship was also statistically significant; baseline patient-clinician information engagement positively predicted information seeking from nonmedical sources at follow-up. These findings suggest that cancer survivors move between nonmedical to clinician sources in a dynamic way to learn about their disease. PMID:24359259

The six-minute walk test as a measure of postoperative recovery after colorectal resection: further examination of its measurement properties.

PubMed

Pecorelli, Nicolò; Fiore, Julio F; Gillis, Chelsia; Awasthi, Rashami; Mappin-Kasirer, Benjamin; Niculiseanu, Petru; Fried, Gerald M; Carli, Francesco; Feldman, Liane S

2016-06-01

Patients, clinicians and researchers seek an easy, reproducible and valid measure of postoperative recovery. The six-minute walk test (6MWT) is a low-cost measure of physical function, which is a relevant dimension of recovery. The aim of the present study was to contribute further evidence for the validity of the 6MWT as a measure of postoperative recovery after colorectal surgery. This study involved a sample of 174 patients enrolled in three previous randomized controlled trials. Construct validity was assessed by testing the hypotheses that the distance walked in 6 min (6MWD) at 4 weeks after surgery is greater (1) in younger versus older patients, (2) in patients with higher preoperative physical status versus lower, (3) after laparoscopic versus open surgery, (4) in patients without postoperative complications versus with postoperative complications; and that 6MWD (5) correlates cross-sectionally with self-reported physical activity as measured with a questionnaire (CHAMPS). Statistical analysis was performed using linear regression and Spearman's correlation. The COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist was used to guide the formulation of hypotheses and reporting of results. One hundred and fifty-one patients who completed the 6MWT at 4 weeks after surgery were included in the analysis. All hypotheses tested for construct validity were supported by the data. Older age, poorer physical status, open surgery and occurrence of postoperative complications were associated with clinically relevant reduction in 6MWD (>19 m). There was a moderate positive correlation between 6MWD and patient-reported physical activity (r = 0.46). This study contributes further evidence for the construct validity of the 6MWT as a measure of postoperative recovery after colorectal surgery. Results from this study support the use of the 6MWT as an outcome measure in studies evaluating interventions aimed to improve postoperative recovery.

Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy/Fabricated and Induced Illness: does the diagnosis serve economic vested interests, rather than the interests of children?

PubMed

Wrennall, Lynne

2007-01-01

The discourse of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy/Fabricated and Induced Illness posits the widespread incidence of a highly dangerous form of child abuse in which illness and developmental delay in children, is caused by their parents or carers. The discourse has been linked to false allegations of child abuse, hostile adoptions and miscarriages of justice. It has also stimulated concerns that the children's real medical and developmental needs are neglected when their conditions are misdiagnosed as child abuse. This study examines the critical claims that have been levelled against the Munchausen discourse. They provide explanations of the children's problems that compete with the discourse. The claim of the discourse to scientific validity is thereby shown to be questionable. The explanations have been distilled into specific hypotheses, to stimulate further research. The literature from which the hypotheses were derived, identifies problems in the MSbP/FII discourse in five broad areas of science, regarding: the test validity of techniques; construct validity; statistical methods; evidentiary standards and adverse impacts. The main conclusion is that the detailed critical hypotheses, cohere around the central claim that the discourse of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy/Fabricated and Induced Illness serves economic vested interests, rather than the interests of children. The hypotheses predict adverse health and social outcomes, as a result of the discourse. Consequently, the continued deployment of the discourse would probably be "unsafe and therefore unwise".

Construct validity of functional capacity tests in healthy workers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Functional Capacity (FC) is a multidimensional construct within the activity domain of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health framework (ICF). Functional capacity evaluations (FCEs) are assessments of work-related FC. The extent to which these work-related FC tests are associated to bio-, psycho-, or social factors is unknown. The aims of this study were to test relationships between FC tests and other ICF factors in a sample of healthy workers, and to determine the amount of statistical variance in FC tests that can be explained by these factors. Methods A cross sectional study. The sample was comprised of 403 healthy workers who completed material handling FC tests (lifting low, overhead lifting, and carrying) and static work FC tests (overhead working and standing forward bend). The explainable variables were; six muscle strength tests; aerobic capacity test; and questionnaires regarding personal factors (age, gender, body height, body weight, and education), psychological factors (mental health, vitality, and general health perceptions), and social factors (perception of work, physical workloads, sport-, leisure time-, and work-index). A priori construct validity hypotheses were formulated and analyzed by means of correlation coefficients and regression analyses. Results Moderate correlations were detected between material handling FC tests and muscle strength, gender, body weight, and body height. As for static work FC tests; overhead working correlated fair with aerobic capacity and handgrip strength, and low with the sport-index and perception of work. For standing forward bend FC test, all hypotheses were rejected. The regression model revealed that 61% to 62% of material handling FC tests were explained by physical factors. Five to 15% of static work FC tests were explained by physical and social factors. Conclusions The current study revealed that, in a sample of healthy workers, material handling FC tests were related to physical factors but not to the psychosocial factors measured in this study. The construct of static work FC tests remained largely unexplained. PMID:23758870

Brain or strain? Symptoms alone do not distinguish physiologic concussion from cervical/vestibular injury.

PubMed

Leddy, John J; Baker, John G; Merchant, Asim; Picano, John; Gaile, Daniel; Matuszak, Jason; Willer, Barry

2015-05-01

To compare symptoms in patients with physiologic postconcussion disorder (PCD) versus cervicogenic/vestibular PCD. We hypothesized that most symptoms would not be equivalent. In particular, we hypothesized that cognitive symptoms would be more often associated with physiologic PCD. Retrospective review of symptom reports from patients who completed a 22-item symptom questionnaire. University-based concussion clinic. Convenience sample of 128 patients who had symptoms after head injury for more than 3 weeks and who had provocative treadmill exercise testing. Subjects were classified as either physiologic PCD (abnormal treadmill performance and a normal cervical/vestibular physical examination) or cervicogenic/vestibular PCD (CGV, normal treadmill performance, and an abnormal cervical/vestibular physical examination). Self-reported symptoms. Univariate and multivariate methods, including t tests, tests of equivalence, a logistic regression model, k-nearest neighbor analysis, multidimensional scaling, and principle components analysis were used to see whether symptoms could distinguish PCD from CGV. None of the statistical methods used to analyze self-reported symptoms was able to adequately distinguish patients with PCD from patients with CGV. Symptoms after head injury, including cognitive symptoms, have traditionally been ascribed to brain injury, but they do not reliably discriminate between physiologic PCD and cervicogenic/vestibular PCD. Clinicians should consider specific testing of exercise tolerance and perform a physical examination of the cervical spine and the vestibular/ocular systems to determine the etiology of postconcussion symptoms. Symptoms after head injury, including cognitive symptoms, do not discriminate between concussion and cervical/vestibular injury.

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; Roseman, Edward F.; O'Brien, Timothy P.

2014-01-01

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Dynamic augmentation restores anterior tibial translation in ACL suture repair: a biomechanical comparison of non-, static and dynamic augmentation techniques.

PubMed

Hoogeslag, Roy A G; Brouwer, Reinoud W; Huis In 't Veld, Rianne; Stephen, Joanna M; Amis, Andrew A

2018-02-03

There is a lack of objective evidence investigating how previous non-augmented ACL suture repair techniques and contemporary augmentation techniques in ACL suture repair restrain anterior tibial translation (ATT) across the arc of flexion, and after cyclic loading of the knee. The purpose of this work was to test the null hypotheses that there would be no statistically significant difference in ATT after non-, static- and dynamic-augmented ACL suture repair, and they will not restore ATT to normal values across the arc of flexion of the knee after cyclic loading. Eleven human cadaveric knees were mounted in a test rig, and knee kinematics from 0° to 90° of flexion were recorded by use of an optical tracking system. Measurements were recorded without load and with 89-N tibial anterior force. The knees were tested in the following states: ACL-intact, ACL-deficient, non-augmented suture repair, static tape augmentation and dynamic augmentation after 10 and 300 loading cycles. Only static tape augmentation and dynamic augmentation restored ATT to values similar to the ACL-intact state directly postoperation, and maintained this after cyclic loading. However, contrary to dynamic augmentation, the ATT after static tape augmentation failed to remain statistically less than for the ACL-deficient state after cyclic loading. Moreover, after cyclic loading, ATT was significantly less with dynamic augmentation when compared to static tape augmentation. In contrast to non-augmented ACL suture repair and static tape augmentation, only dynamic augmentation resulted in restoration of ATT values similar to the ACL-intact knee and decreased ATT values when compared to the ACL-deficient knee immediately post-operation and also after cyclic loading, across the arc of flexion, thus allowing the null hypotheses to be rejected. This may assist healing of the ruptured ACL. Therefore, this study would support further clinical evaluation of dynamic augmentation of ACL repair.

Use of mammal manure by nesting burrowing owls: a test of four functional hypotheses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, M.D.; Conway, C.J.

2007-01-01

Animals have evolved an impressive array of behavioural traits to avoid depredation. Olfactory camouflage of conspicuous odours is a strategy to avoid depredation that has been implicated only in a few species of birds. Burrowing owls, Athene cunicularia, routinely collect dried manure from mammals and scatter it in their nest chamber, in the tunnel leading to their nest and at the entrance to their nesting burrow. This unusual behaviour was thought to reduce nest depredation by concealing the scent of adults and juveniles, but a recent study suggests that manure functions to attract arthropod prey. However, burrowing owls routinely scatter other materials in the same way that they scatter manure, and this fact seems to be at odds with both of these hypotheses. Thus, we examined the function of this behaviour by testing four alternative hypotheses. We found no support for the widely cited olfactory-camouflage hypothesis (manure did not lower the probability of depredation), or for the mate-attraction hypothesis (males collected manure after, not before, pair formation). Predictions of the burrow-occupied hypothesis (manure indicates occupancy to conspecifics and thereby reduces agonistic interactions) were supported, but results were not statistically significant. Our results also supported several predictions of the prey-attraction hypothesis. Pitfall traps at sampling sites with manure collected more arthropod biomass (of taxa common in the diet of burrowing owls) than pitfall traps at sampling sites without manure. Scattering behaviour of burrowing owls appears to function to attract arthropod prey, but may also signal occupancy of a burrow to conspecifics. ?? 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Prior knowledge-based approach for associating ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluating the potential human health and/or ecological risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures in the ambient environment is one of the central challenges of chemical safety assessment and environmental protection. There is a need for approaches that can help to integrate chemical monitoring and bio-effects data to evaluate risks associated with chemicals present in the environment. We used prior knowledge about chemical-gene interactions to develop a knowledge assembly model for detected chemicals at five locations near two wastewater treatment plants. The assembly model was used to generate hypotheses about the biological impacts of the chemicals at each location. The hypotheses were tested using empirical hepatic gene expression data from fathead minnows exposed for 12 d at each location. Empirical gene expression data was also mapped to the assembly models to statistically evaluate the likelihood of a chemical contributing to the observed biological responses. The prior knowledge approach was able reasonably hypothesize the biological impacts at one site but not the other. Chemicals most likely contributing to the observed biological responses were identified at each location. Despite limitations to the approach, knowledge assembly models have strong potential for associating chemical occurrence with potential biological effects and providing a foundation for hypothesis generation to guide research and/or monitoring efforts relat

Evaluation of resveratrol, green tea extract, curcumin, oxaloacetic acid, and medium-chain triglyceride oil on life span of genetically heterogeneous mice.

PubMed

Strong, Randy; Miller, Richard A; Astle, Clinton M; Baur, Joseph A; de Cabo, Rafael; Fernandez, Elizabeth; Guo, Wen; Javors, Martin; Kirkland, James L; Nelson, James F; Sinclair, David A; Teter, Bruce; Williams, David; Zaveri, Nurulain; Nadon, Nancy L; Harrison, David E

2013-01-01

The National Institute on Aging Interventions Testing Program (ITP) was established to evaluate agents that are hypothesized to increase life span and/or health span in genetically heterogeneous mice. Each compound is tested in parallel at three test sites. It is the goal of the ITP to publish all results, negative or positive. We report here on the results of lifelong treatment of mice, beginning at 4 months of age, with each of five agents, that is, green tea extract (GTE), curcumin, oxaloacetic acid, medium-chain triglyceride oil, and resveratrol, on the life span of genetically heterogeneous mice. Each agent was administered beginning at 4 months of age. None of these five agents had a statistically significant effect on life span of male or female mice, by log-rank test, at the concentrations tested, although a secondary analysis suggested that GTE might diminish the risk of midlife deaths in females only.

Evaluation of Resveratrol, Green Tea Extract, Curcumin, Oxaloacetic Acid, and Medium-Chain Triglyceride Oil on Life Span of Genetically Heterogeneous Mice

PubMed Central

Miller, Richard A.; Astle, Clinton M.; Baur, Joseph A.; de Cabo, Rafael; Fernandez, Elizabeth; Guo, Wen; Javors, Martin; Kirkland, James L.; Nelson, James F.; Sinclair, David A.; Teter, Bruce; Williams, David; Zaveri, Nurulain; Nadon, Nancy L.; Harrison, David E.

2013-01-01

The National Institute on Aging Interventions Testing Program (ITP) was established to evaluate agents that are hypothesized to increase life span and/or health span in genetically heterogeneous mice. Each compound is tested in parallel at three test sites. It is the goal of the ITP to publish all results, negative or positive. We report here on the results of lifelong treatment of mice, beginning at 4 months of age, with each of five agents, that is, green tea extract (GTE), curcumin, oxaloacetic acid, medium-chain triglyceride oil, and resveratrol, on the life span of genetically heterogeneous mice. Each agent was administered beginning at 4 months of age. None of these five agents had a statistically significant effect on life span of male or female mice, by log-rank test, at the concentrations tested, although a secondary analysis suggested that GTE might diminish the risk of midlife deaths in females only. PMID:22451473

Replication, lies and lesser-known truths regarding experimental design in environmental microbiology.

PubMed

Lennon, Jay T

2011-06-01

A recent analysis revealed that most environmental microbiologists neglect replication in their science (Prosser, 2010). Of all peer-reviewed papers published during 2009 in the field's leading journals, slightly more than 70% lacked replication when it came to analyzing microbial community data. The paucity of replication is viewed as an 'endemic' and 'embarrassing' problem that amounts to 'bad science', or worse yet, as the title suggests, lying (Prosser, 2010). Although replication is an important component of experimental design, it is possible to do good science without replication. There are various quantitative techniques - some old, some new - that, when used properly, will allow environmental microbiologists to make strong statistical conclusions from experimental and comparative data. Here, I provide examples where unreplicated data can be used to test hypotheses and yield novel information in a statistically robust manner. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Sexual abuse, family environment, and psychological symptoms: on the validity of statistical control.

PubMed

Briere, J; Elliott, D M

1993-04-01

M. R. Nash, T. L. Hulsey, M. C. Sexton, T. L. Harralson, and W. Lambert (1993) reported on the effects of controlling for family environment when studying sexual abuse sequelae. Sexual abuse history was associated with elevated Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory and Rorschach scores in a sample of 105 women, but many of the reported differences disappeared when a Family Functioning Scale score was used as a covariate. The present article considers the findings of Nash et al. in terms of the theoretical and statistical constraints placed on analysis of covariance and other partializing procedures. Because family dysfunction is not always causally antecedent to sexual abuse, and given the quasi-experimental quality of most abuse research, the use of covariate techniques to test hypotheses about the causal role of family environment in the impacts of sexual abuse may be ill advised. Analyses of a 2,964-subject data set illustrate these concerns.

Shallow cloud statistics over Tropical Western Pacific: CAM5 versus ARM Comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, A.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S. A.; Ma, H. Y.; Kollias, P.; Xie, S.

2014-12-01

The role of shallow convection in the tropical convective cloud life cycle has received increasing interest because of its sensitivity to simulate large-scale tropical disturbances such as MJO. Though previous studies have proposed several hypotheses to explain the role of shallow clouds in the convective life cycle, our understanding on the role of shallow clouds is still premature. There are more questions needs to be addressed related to the role of different cloud population, conditions favorable for shallow to deep convection transitions, and their characteristics at different stages of the convective cloud life. The present study aims to improve the understanding of the shallow clouds by documenting the role of different shallow cloud population for the Year of Tropical Convection period using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observations at the Tropical Western Pacific Manus site. The performance of the CAM5 model to simulate shallow clouds are tested using observed cloud statistics.

Enhancing the Biological Relevance of Secretome-Based Proteomics by Linking Tumor Cell Proliferation and Protein Secretion.

PubMed

Gregori, Josep; Méndez, Olga; Katsila, Theodora; Pujals, Mireia; Salvans, Cándida; Villarreal, Laura; Arribas, Joaquin; Tabernero, Josep; Sánchez, Alex; Villanueva, Josep

2014-07-15

Secretome profiling has become a methodology of choice for the identification of tumor biomarkers. We hypothesized that due to the dynamic nature of secretomes cellular perturbations could affect their composition but also change the global amount of protein secreted per cell. We confirmed our hypothesis by measuring the levels of secreted proteins taking into account the amount of proteome produced per cell. Then, we established a correlation between cell proliferation and protein secretion that explained the observed changes in global protein secretion. Next, we implemented a normalization correcting the statistical results of secretome studies by the global protein secretion of cells into a generalized linear model (GLM). The application of the normalization to two biological perturbations on tumor cells resulted in drastic changes in the list of statistically significant proteins. Furthermore, we found that known epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) effectors were only statistically significant when the normalization was applied. Therefore, the normalization proposed here increases the sensitivity of statistical tests by increasing the number of true-positives. From an oncology perspective, the correlation between protein secretion and cellular proliferation suggests that slow-growing tumors could have high-protein secretion rates and consequently contribute strongly to tumor paracrine signaling.

Heterogeneity Between Ducts of the Same Nuclear Grade Involved by Duct Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS) of the Breast

PubMed Central

Miller, Naomi A.; Chapman, Judith-Anne W.; Qian, Jin; Christens-Barry, William A.; Fu, Yuejiao; Yuan, Yan; Lickley, H. Lavina A.; Axelrod, David E.

2010-01-01

Purpose Nuclear grade of breast DCIS is considered during patient management decision-making although it may have only a modest prognostic association with therapeutic outcome. We hypothesized that visual inspection may miss substantive differences in nuclei classified as having the same nuclear grade. To test this hypothesis, we measured subvisual nuclear features by quantitative image cytometry for nuclei with the same grade, and tested for statistical differences in these features. Experimental design and statistical analysis Thirty-nine nuclear digital image features of about 100 nuclei were measured in digital images of H&E stained slides of 81 breast biopsy specimens. One field with at least 5 ducts was evaluated for each patient. We compared features of nuclei with the same grade in multiple ducts of the same patient with ANOVA (or Welch test), and compared features of nuclei with the same grade in two ducts of different patients using 2-sided t-tests (P ≤ 0.05). Also, we compared image features for nuclei in patients with single grade to those with the same grade in patients with multiple grades using t-tests. Results Statistically significant differences were detected in nuclear features between ducts with the same nuclear grade, both in different ducts of the same patient, and between ducts in different patients with DCIS of more than one grade. Conclusion Nuclei in ducts visually described as having the same nuclear grade had significantly different subvisual digital image features. These subvisual differences may be considered additional manifestations of heterogeneity over and above differences that can be observed microscopically. This heterogeneity may explain the inconsistency of nuclear grading as a prognostic factor. PMID:20981137

Flexible alpha allocation strategies for confirmatory adaptive enrichment clinical trials with a prespecified subgroup.

PubMed

Sugitani, Toshifumi; Posch, Martin; Bretz, Frank; Koenig, Franz

2018-06-26

Adaptive enrichment designs have recently received considerable attention as they have the potential to make drug development process for personalized medicine more efficient. Several statistical approaches have been proposed so far in the literature and the operating characteristics of these approaches are extensively investigated using simulation studies. In this paper, we improve on existing adaptive enrichment designs by assigning unequal weights to the significance levels associated with the hypotheses of the overall population and a prespecified subgroup. More specifically, we focus on the standard combination test, a modified combination test, the marginal combination test, and the partial conditional error rate approach and explore the operating characteristics of these approaches by a simulation study. We show that these approaches can lead to power gains, compared to existing approaches, if the weights are chosen carefully. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Search for Cross-Correlations of Ultrahigh-Energy Cosmic Rays with BL Lacertae Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Amann, J. F.; Archbold, G.; Belov, K.; Belz, J. W.; BenZvi, S.; Bergman, D. R.; Blake, S. A.; Boyer, J. H.; Burt, G. W.; Cao, Z.; Connolly, B. M.; Deng, W.; Fedorova, Y.; Findlay, J.; Finley, C. B.; Hanlon, W. F.; Hoffman, C. M.; Holzscheiter, M. H.; Hughes, G. A.; Hüntemeyer, P.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kim, K.; Kirn, M. A.; Knapp, B. C.; Loh, E. C.; Maestas, M. M.; Manago, N.; Mannel, E. J.; Marek, L. J.; Martens, K.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthews, J. N.; O'Neill, A.; Painter, C. A.; Perera, L.; Reil, K.; Riehle, R.; Roberts, M. D.; Rodriguez, D.; Sasaki, M.; Schnetzer, S. R.; Seman, M.; Sinnis, G.; Smith, J. D.; Snow, R.; Sokolsky, P.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Thomas, J. R.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tupa, D.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiencke, L. R.; Zech, A.; HIRES Collaboration

2006-01-01

Data taken in stereo mode by the High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) air fluorescence experiment are analyzed to search for correlations between the arrival directions of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays with the positions of BL Lacertae objects. Several previous claims of significant correlations between BL Lac objects and cosmic rays observed by other experiments are tested. These claims are not supported by the HiRes data. However, we verify a recent analysis of correlations between HiRes events and a subset of confirmed BL Lac objects from the 10th Veron Catalog, and we study this correlation in detail. Due to the a posteriori nature of the search, the significance level cannot be reliably estimated and the correlation must be tested independently before any claim can be made. We identify the precise hypotheses that will be tested with statistically independent data.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Validation through Understanding Test-Taking Strategies: An Illustration With the CELPIP-General Reading Pilot Test Using Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Amery D.; Stone, Jake E.

2016-01-01

This article explores an approach for test score validation that examines test takers' strategies for taking a reading comprehension test. The authors formulated three working hypotheses about score validity pertaining to three types of test-taking strategy (comprehending meaning, test management, and test-wiseness). These hypotheses were…

Spurious correlations and inference in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth

2010-01-01

Reliable interpretation of landscape genetic analyses depends on statistical methods that have high power to identify the correct process driving gene flow while rejecting incorrect alternative hypotheses. Little is known about statistical power and inference in individual-based landscape genetics. Our objective was to evaluate the power of causalmodelling with partial...

A Bifactor Approach to Model Multifaceted Constructs in Statistical Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Oscar; MacKinnon, David P.

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis allows researchers to identify the most important mediating constructs in the causal process studied. Identifying specific mediators is especially relevant when the hypothesized mediating construct consists of multiple related facets. The general definition of the construct and its facets might relate differently to…

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

FADTTS: functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Linglong; Li, Runze; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Lin, Weili; Gilmore, John H

2011-06-01

The aim of this paper is to present a functional analysis of a diffusion tensor tract statistics (FADTTS) pipeline for delineating the association between multiple diffusion properties along major white matter fiber bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these white matter tract properties in various diffusion tensor imaging studies. The FADTTS integrates five statistical tools: (i) a multivariate varying coefficient model for allowing the varying coefficient functions in terms of arc length to characterize the varying associations between fiber bundle diffusion properties and a set of covariates, (ii) a weighted least squares estimation of the varying coefficient functions, (iii) a functional principal component analysis to delineate the structure of the variability in fiber bundle diffusion properties, (iv) a global test statistic to test hypotheses of interest, and (v) a simultaneous confidence band to quantify the uncertainty in the estimated coefficient functions. Simulated data are used to evaluate the finite sample performance of FADTTS. We apply FADTTS to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the splenium of the corpus callosum tract and the right internal capsule tract in a clinical study of neurodevelopment. FADTTS can be used to facilitate the understanding of normal brain development, the neural bases of neuropsychiatric disorders, and the joint effects of environmental and genetic factors on white matter fiber bundles. The advantages of FADTTS compared with the other existing approaches are that they are capable of modeling the structured inter-subject variability, testing the joint effects, and constructing their simultaneous confidence bands. However, FADTTS is not crucial for estimation and reduces to the functional analysis method for the single measure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grey matter volume patterns in thalamic nuclei are associated with familial risk for schizophrenia.

PubMed

Pergola, Giulio; Trizio, Silvestro; Di Carlo, Pasquale; Taurisano, Paolo; Mancini, Marina; Amoroso, Nicola; Nettis, Maria Antonietta; Andriola, Ileana; Caforio, Grazia; Popolizio, Teresa; Rampino, Antonio; Di Giorgio, Annabella; Bertolino, Alessandro; Blasi, Giuseppe

2017-02-01

Previous evidence suggests reduced thalamic grey matter volume (GMV) in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ). However, it is not considered an intermediate phenotype for schizophrenia, possibly because previous studies did not assess the contribution of individual thalamic nuclei and employed univariate statistics. Here, we hypothesized that multivariate statistics would reveal an association of GMV in different thalamic nuclei with familial risk for schizophrenia. We also hypothesized that accounting for the heterogeneity of thalamic GMV in healthy controls would improve the detection of subjects at familial risk for the disorder. We acquired MRI scans for 96 clinically stable SCZ, 55 non-affected siblings of patients with schizophrenia (SIB), and 249 HC. The thalamus was parceled into seven regions of interest (ROIs). After a canonical univariate analysis, we used GMV estimates of thalamic ROIs, together with total thalamic GMV and premorbid intelligence, as features in Random Forests to classify HC, SIB, and SCZ. Then, we computed a Misclassification Index for each individual and tested the improvement in SIB detection after excluding a subsample of HC misclassified as patients. Random Forests discriminated SCZ from HC (accuracy=81%) and SIB from HC (accuracy=75%). Left anteromedial thalamic volumes were significantly associated with both multivariate classifications (p<0.05). Excluding HC misclassified as SCZ improved greatly HC vs. SIB classification (Cohen's d=1.39). These findings suggest that multivariate statistics identify a familial background associated with thalamic GMV reduction in SCZ. They also suggest the relevance of inter-individual variability of GMV patterns for the discrimination of individuals at familial risk for the disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making molehills out of mountains: landscape genetics of the Mojave desert tortoise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagerty, Bridgette E.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Tracy, C. Richard

2010-01-01

Heterogeneity in habitat often influences how organisms traverse the landscape matrix that connects populations. Understanding landscape connectivity is important to determine the ecological processes that influence those movements, which lead to evolutionary change due to gene flow. Here, we used landscape genetics and statistical models to evaluate hypotheses that could explain isolation among locations of the threatened Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). Within a causal modeling framework, we investigated three factors that can influence landscape connectivity: geographic distance, barriers to dispersal, and landscape friction. A statistical model of habitat suitability for the Mojave desert tortoise, based on topography, vegetation, and climate variables, was used as a proxy for landscape friction and barriers to dispersal. We quantified landscape friction with least-cost distances and with resistance distances among sampling locations. A set of diagnostic partial Mantel tests statistically separated the hypotheses of potential causes of genetic isolation. The best-supported model varied depending upon how landscape friction was quantified. Patterns of genetic structure were related to a combination of geographic distance and barriers as defined by least-cost distances, suggesting that mountain ranges and extremely low-elevation valleys influence connectivity at the regional scale beyond the tortoises' ability to disperse. However, geographic distance was the only influence detected using resistance distances, which we attributed to fundamental differences between the two ways of quantifying friction. Landscape friction, as we measured it, did not influence the observed patterns of genetic distances using either quantification. Barriers and distance may be more valuable predictors of observed population structure for species like the desert tortoise, which has high dispersal capability and a long generation time.

Integrative pathway analysis of a genome-wide association study of V̇o2max response to exercise training

PubMed Central

Vivar, Juan C.; Sarzynski, Mark A.; Sung, Yun Ju; Timmons, James A.; Bouchard, Claude; Rankinen, Tuomo

2013-01-01

We previously reported the findings from a genome-wide association study of the response of maximal oxygen uptake (V̇o2max) to an exercise program. Here we follow up on these results to generate hypotheses on genes, pathways, and systems involved in the ability to respond to exercise training. A systems biology approach can help us better establish a comprehensive physiological description of what underlies V̇o2maxtrainability. The primary material for this exploration was the individual single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), SNP-gene mapping, and statistical significance levels. We aimed to generate novel hypotheses through analyses that go beyond statistical association of single-locus markers. This was accomplished through three complementary approaches: 1) building de novo evidence of gene candidacy through informatics-driven literature mining; 2) aggregating evidence from statistical associations to link variant enrichment in biological pathways to V̇o2max trainability; and 3) predicting possible consequences of variants residing in the pathways of interest. We started with candidate gene prioritization followed by pathway analysis focused on overrepresentation analysis and gene set enrichment analysis. Subsequently, leads were followed using in silico analysis of predicted SNP functions. Pathways related to cellular energetics (pantothenate and CoA biosynthesis; PPAR signaling) and immune functions (complement and coagulation cascades) had the highest levels of SNP burden. In particular, long-chain fatty acid transport and fatty acid oxidation genes and sequence variants were found to influence differences in V̇o2max trainability. Together, these methods allow for the hypothesis-driven ranking and prioritization of genes and pathways for future experimental testing and validation. PMID:23990238

Representation of research hypotheses

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hypotheses are now being automatically produced on an industrial scale by computers in biology, e.g. the annotation of a genome is essentially a large set of hypotheses generated by sequence similarity programs; and robot scientists enable the full automation of a scientific investigation, including generation and testing of research hypotheses. Results This paper proposes a logically defined way for recording automatically generated hypotheses in machine amenable way. The proposed formalism allows the description of complete hypotheses sets as specified input and output for scientific investigations. The formalism supports the decomposition of research hypotheses into more specialised hypotheses if that is required by an application. Hypotheses are represented in an operational way – it is possible to design an experiment to test them. The explicit formal description of research hypotheses promotes the explicit formal description of the results and conclusions of an investigation. The paper also proposes a framework for automated hypotheses generation. We demonstrate how the key components of the proposed framework are implemented in the Robot Scientist “Adam”. Conclusions A formal representation of automatically generated research hypotheses can help to improve the way humans produce, record, and validate research hypotheses. Availability http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/cs/research/cb/projects/robotscientist/results/ PMID:21624164

What makes Darwinian hydrology "Darwinian"? Asking a different kind of question about landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.

2014-02-01

There have been repeated calls for a Darwinian approach to hydrologic science, or for a synthesis of Darwinian and Newtonian approaches, to deepen understanding of the hydrologic system in the larger landscape context, and so develop a better basis for predictions now and in an uncertain future. But what exactly makes a Darwinian approach to hydrology "Darwinian"? While there have now been a number of discussions of Darwinian approaches, many referencing Harte (2002), the term is potentially a source of confusion because its connections to Darwin remain allusive rather than explicit. Here we suggest that the Darwinian approach to hydrology follows the example of Charles Darwin by focusing attention on the patterns of variation in populations and seeking hypotheses that explain these patterns in terms of the mechanisms and conditions that determine their historical development. These hypotheses do not simply catalog patterns or predict them statistically - they connect the present structure with processes operating in the past. Nor are they explanations presented without independent evidence or critical analysis - Darwin's hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying present-day variation could be independently tested and validated. With a Darwinian framework in mind, it is easy to see that a great deal of hydrologic research has already been done that contributes to a Darwinian hydrology - whether deliberately or not. We discuss some practical and philosophical issues with this approach to hydrologic science: how are explanatory hypotheses generated? What constitutes a good hypothesis? How are hypotheses tested? "Historical" sciences - including paleohydrology - have long grappled with these questions, as must a Darwinian hydrologic science. We can draw on Darwin's own example for some answers, though there are ongoing debates about the philosophical nature of his methods and reasoning. Darwin used a range of methods of historical reasoning to develop explanatory hypotheses: extrapolating mechanisms, space for time substitution, and looking for signatures of history. Some of these are already in use, while others are not and could be used to develop new insights. He sought explanatory hypotheses that intelligibly unified disparate facts, were testable against evidence, and had fertile implications for further research. He provided evidence to support his hypotheses by deducing corollary conditions ("if explanation A is true, then B will also be true") and comparing these to observations. While a synthesis of the Darwinian and Newtonian approaches remains a goal, the Darwinian approach to hydrologic science has significant value of its own. The Darwinian hydrology that has been conducted already has not been coordinated or linked into a general body of theory and knowledge, but the time is coming when this will be possible.

Comparative symptomatology of burnout and depression.

PubMed

Bianchi, Renzo; Boffy, Claire; Hingray, Coraline; Truchot, Didier; Laurent, Eric

2013-06-01

The link between burnout and depression remains unclear. In this study, we compared depressive symptoms in 46 burned-out workers, 46 outpatients experiencing a major depressive episode, and 453 burnout-free workers to test the distinctiveness of burnout as a clinical entity. Participants with burnout and major depressive episode reported similar, severe levels of overall depressive symptoms. The between-syndrome overlap was further verified for eight of the nine major depressive episode diagnostic criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.). Our findings do not support the view hypothesizing that burnout and depression are separate entities and question the nosological added value of the burnout construct.

Evaluation and statistical inference for human connectomes.

PubMed

Pestilli, Franco; Yeatman, Jason D; Rokem, Ariel; Kay, Kendrick N; Wandell, Brian A

2014-10-01

Diffusion-weighted imaging coupled with tractography is currently the only method for in vivo mapping of human white-matter fascicles. Tractography takes diffusion measurements as input and produces the connectome, a large collection of white-matter fascicles, as output. We introduce a method to evaluate the evidence supporting connectomes. Linear fascicle evaluation (LiFE) takes any connectome as input and predicts diffusion measurements as output, using the difference between the measured and predicted diffusion signals to quantify the prediction error. We use the prediction error to evaluate the evidence that supports the properties of the connectome, to compare tractography algorithms and to test hypotheses about tracts and connections.

Impedance testing on cochlear implants after electroconvulsive therapy.

PubMed

McRackan, Theodore R; Rivas, Alejandro; Hedley-Williams, Andrea; Raj, Vidya; Dietrich, Mary S; Clark, Nathaniel K; Labadie, Robert F

2014-12-01

Cochlear implants (CI) are neural prostheses that restore hearing to individuals with profound sensorineural hearing loss. The surgically implanted component consists of an electrode array, which is threaded into the cochlea, and an electronic processor, which is buried under the skin behind the ear. The Food and Drug Administration and CI manufacturers contend that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is contraindicated in CI recipients owing to risk of damage to the implant and/or the patient. We hypothesized that ECT does no electrical damage to CIs. Ten functional CIs were implanted in 5 fresh cadaveric human heads. Each head then received a consecutive series of 12 unilateral ECT sessions applying maximum full pulse-width energy settings. Electroconvulsive therapy was delivered contralaterally to 5 CIs and ipsilaterally to 5 CIs. Electrical integrity testing (impedance testing) of the electrode array was performed before and after CI insertion, and after the first, third, fifth, seventh, ninth, and 12th ECT sessions. Electroconvulsive therapy was performed by a staff psychiatrist experienced with the technique. Explanted CIs were sent back to the manufacturer for further integrity testing. No electrical damage was identified during impedance testing. Overall, there were statistically significant decreases in impedances (consistent with no electrical damage) when comparing pre-ECT impedance values to those after 12 sessions. There was no statistically significant difference (P > 0.05) in impedance values comparing ipsilateral to contralateral ECT. Manufacturer testing revealed no other electrical damage to the CIs. Electroconvulsive therapy does not seem to cause any detectable electrical injury to CIs.

The relationship between knowledge of leadership and knowledge management practices in the food industry in Kurdistan province, Iran.

PubMed

Jad, Seyyed Mohammad Moosavi; Geravandi, Sahar; Mohammadi, Mohammad Javad; Alizadeh, Rashin; Sarvarian, Mohammad; Rastegarimehr, Babak; Afkar, Abolhasan; Yari, Ahmad Reza; Momtazan, Mahboobeh; Valipour, Aliasghar; Mahboubi, Mohammad; Karimyan, Azimeh; Mazraehkar, Alireza; Nejad, Ali Soleimani; Mohammadi, Hafez

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to identify the relationship between the knowledge of leadership and knowledge management practices. This research strategy, in terms of quantity, procedure and obtain information, is descriptive and correlational. Statistical population, consist of all employees of a food industry in Kurdistan province of Iran, who were engaged in 2016 and their total number is about 1800 people. 316 employees in the Kurdistan food industry (Kurdistan FI) were selected, using Cochran formula. Non-random method and valid questions (standard) for measurement of the data are used. Reliability and validity were confirmed. Statistical analysis of the data was carried out, using SPSS 16. The statistical analysis of collected data showed the relationship between knowledge-oriented of leadership and knowledge management activities as mediator variables. The results of the data and test hypotheses suggest that knowledge management activities play an important role in the functioning of product innovation and the results showed that the activities of Knowledge Management (knowledge transfer, storage knowledge, application of knowledge, creation of knowledge) on performance of product innovation.

Bootstrapping under constraint for the assessment of group behavior in human contact networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tremblay, Nicolas; Barrat, Alain; Forest, Cary; Nornberg, Mark; Pinton, Jean-François; Borgnat, Pierre

2013-11-01

The increasing availability of time- and space-resolved data describing human activities and interactions gives insights into both static and dynamic properties of human behavior. In practice, nevertheless, real-world data sets can often be considered as only one realization of a particular event. This highlights a key issue in social network analysis: the statistical significance of estimated properties. In this context, we focus here on the assessment of quantitative features of specific subset of nodes in empirical networks. We present a method of statistical resampling based on bootstrapping groups of nodes under constraints within the empirical network. The method enables us to define acceptance intervals for various null hypotheses concerning relevant properties of the subset of nodes under consideration in order to characterize by a statistical test its behavior as “normal” or not. We apply this method to a high-resolution data set describing the face-to-face proximity of individuals during two colocated scientific conferences. As a case study, we show how to probe whether colocating the two conferences succeeded in bringing together the two corresponding groups of scientists.

A powerful and flexible statistical framework for testing hypotheses of allele-specific gene expression from RNA-seq data

PubMed Central

Skelly, Daniel A.; Johansson, Marnie; Madeoy, Jennifer; Wakefield, Jon; Akey, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Variation in gene expression is thought to make a significant contribution to phenotypic diversity among individuals within populations. Although high-throughput cDNA sequencing offers a unique opportunity to delineate the genome-wide architecture of regulatory variation, new statistical methods need to be developed to capitalize on the wealth of information contained in RNA-seq data sets. To this end, we developed a powerful and flexible hierarchical Bayesian model that combines information across loci to allow both global and locus-specific inferences about allele-specific expression (ASE). We applied our methodology to a large RNA-seq data set obtained in a diploid hybrid of two diverse Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains, as well as to RNA-seq data from an individual human genome. Our statistical framework accurately quantifies levels of ASE with specified false-discovery rates, achieving high reproducibility between independent sequencing platforms. We pinpoint loci that show unusual and biologically interesting patterns of ASE, including allele-specific alternative splicing and transcription termination sites. Our methodology provides a rigorous, quantitative, and high-resolution tool for profiling ASE across whole genomes. PMID:21873452

An Assessment of Phylogenetic Tools for Analyzing the Interplay Between Interspecific Interactions and Phenotypic Evolution.

PubMed

Drury, J P; Grether, G F; Garland, T; Morlon, H

2018-05-01

Much ecological and evolutionary theory predicts that interspecific interactions often drive phenotypic diversification and that species phenotypes in turn influence species interactions. Several phylogenetic comparative methods have been developed to assess the importance of such processes in nature; however, the statistical properties of these methods have gone largely untested. Focusing mainly on scenarios of competition between closely-related species, we assess the performance of available comparative approaches for analyzing the interplay between interspecific interactions and species phenotypes. We find that many currently used statistical methods often fail to detect the impact of interspecific interactions on trait evolution, that sister-taxa analyses are particularly unreliable in general, and that recently developed process-based models have more satisfactory statistical properties. Methods for detecting predictors of species interactions are generally more reliable than methods for detecting character displacement. In weighing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, we hope to provide a clear guide for empiricists testing hypotheses about the reciprocal effect of interspecific interactions and species phenotypes and to inspire further development of process-based models.

The statistics of Pearce element diagrams and the Chayes closure problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, J.

1988-05-01

Pearce element ratios are defined as having a constituent in their denominator that is conserved in a system undergoing change. The presence of a conserved element in the denominator simplifies the statistics of such ratios and renders them subject to statistical tests, especially tests of significance of the correlation coefficient between Pearce element ratios. Pearce element ratio diagrams provide unambigous tests of petrologic hypotheses because they are based on the stoichiometry of rock-forming minerals. There are three ways to recognize a conserved element: 1. The petrologic behavior of the element can be used to select conserved ones. They are usually the incompatible elements. 2. The ratio of two conserved elements will be constant in a comagmatic suite. 3. An element ratio diagram that is not constructed with a conserved element in the denominator will have a trend with a near zero intercept. The last two criteria can be tested statistically. The significance of the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient can be tested by estimating the probability of obtaining the observed values from a random population of arrays. This population of arrays must satisfy two criteria: 1. The population must contain at least one array that has the means and variances of the array of analytical data for the rock suite. 2. Arrays with the means and variances of the data must not be so abundant in the population that nearly every array selected at random has the properties of the data. The population of random closed arrays can be obtained from a population of open arrays whose elements are randomly selected from probability distributions. The means and variances of these probability distributions are themselves selected from probability distributions which have means and variances equal to a hypothetical open array that would give the means and variances of the data on closure. This hypothetical open array is called the Chayes array. Alternatively, the population of random closed arrays can be drawn from the compositional space available to rock-forming processes. The minerals comprising the available space can be described with one additive component per mineral phase and a small number of exchange components. This space is called Thompson space. Statistics based on either space lead to the conclusion that Pearce element ratios are statistically valid and that Pearce element diagrams depict the processes that create chemical inhomogeneities in igneous rock suites.

Cadmium Exposure and Pancreatic Cancer in South Louisiana

PubMed Central

Luckett, Brian G.; Su, L. Joseph; Rood, Jennifer C.; Fontham, Elizabeth T. H.

2012-01-01

Cadmium has been hypothesized to be a pancreatic carcinogen. We test the hypothesis that cadmium exposure is a risk factor for pancreatic cancer with a population-based case-control study sampled from a population with persistently high rates of pancreatic cancer (south Louisiana). We tested potential dietary and nondietary sources of cadmium for their association with urinary cadmium concentrations which reflect long-term exposure to cadmium due to the accumulation of cadmium in the kidney cortex. Increasing urinary cadmium concentrations were significantly associated with an increasing risk of pancreatic cancer (2nd quartile OR = 3.34, 3rd = 5.58, 4th = 7.70; test for trend P ≤ 0.0001). Potential sources of cadmium exposure, as documented in the scientific literature, found to be statistically significantly associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer included working as a plumber, pipefitter or welder (OR = 5.88) and high consumption levels of red meat (4th quartile OR = 6.18) and grains (4th quartile OR = 3.38). Current cigarette smoking, at least 80 pack years of smoking, occupational exposure to cadmium and paints, working in a shipyard, and high consumption of grains were found to be statistically significantly associated with increased concentrations of urinary cadmium. This study provides epidemiologic evidence that cadmium is a potential human pancreatic carcinogen. PMID:23319964

Black/White Differences in Adolescent Drug Use: A Test of Six Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rote, Sunshine M.; Taylor, John

2014-01-01

Six specific hypotheses have been developed to account for why Caucasians have higher rates of drug use compared to African-Americans. This article utilizes data from a South Florida-based community study of 893 young adults (1998-2002) to test these hypotheses. Specifically, Caucasians (1) initiate drug use at younger ages than African-Americans…

Multiple comparisons permutation test for image based data mining in radiotherapy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Comparing incidental dose distributions (i.e. images) of patients with different outcomes is a straightforward way to explore dose-response hypotheses in radiotherapy. In this paper, we introduced a permutation test that compares images, such as dose distributions from radiotherapy, while tackling the multiple comparisons problem. A test statistic Tmax was proposed that summarizes the differences between the images into a single value and a permutation procedure was employed to compute the adjusted p-value. We demonstrated the method in two retrospective studies: a prostate study that relates 3D dose distributions to failure, and an esophagus study that relates 2D surface dose distributions of the esophagus to acute esophagus toxicity. As a result, we were able to identify suspicious regions that are significantly associated with failure (prostate study) or toxicity (esophagus study). Permutation testing allows direct comparison of images from different patient categories and is a useful tool for data mining in radiotherapy. PMID:24365155

Teaching Statistics from the Operating Table: Minimally Invasive and Maximally Educational

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nowacki, Amy S.

2015-01-01

Statistics courses that focus on data analysis in isolation, discounting the scientific inquiry process, may not motivate students to learn the subject. By involving students in other steps of the inquiry process, such as generating hypotheses and data, students may become more interested and vested in the analysis step. Additionally, such an…

Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring.

PubMed

Deriso, Richard B; Maunder, Mark N; Pearson, Walter H

2008-07-01

We present a framework for evaluating the cause of fishery declines by integrating covariates into a fisheries stock assessment model. This allows the evaluation of fisheries' effects vs. natural and other human impacts. The analyses presented are based on integrating ecological science and statistics and form the basis for environmental decision-making advice. Hypothesis tests are described to rank hypotheses and determine the size of a multiple covariate model. We extend recent developments in integrated analysis and use novel methods to produce effect size estimates that are relevant to policy makers and include estimates of uncertainty. Results can be directly applied to evaluate trade-offs among alternative management decisions. The methods and results are also broadly applicable outside fisheries stock assessment. We show that multiple factors influence populations and that analysis of factors in isolation can be misleading. We illustrate the framework by applying it to Pacific herring of Prince William Sound, Alaska (USA). The Pacific herring stock that spawns in Prince William Sound is a stock that has collapsed, but there are several competing or alternative hypotheses to account for the initial collapse and subsequent lack of recovery. Factors failing the initial screening tests for statistical significance included indicators of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, coho salmon predation, sea lion predation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Northern Oscillation Index, and effects of containment in the herring egg-on-kelp pound fishery. The overall results indicate that the most statistically significant factors related to the lack of recovery of the herring stock involve competition or predation by juvenile hatchery pink salmon on herring juveniles. Secondary factors identified in the analysis were poor nutrition in the winter, ocean (Gulf of Alaska) temperature in the winter, the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus, and the pathogen Ichthyophonus hoferi. The implication of this result to fisheries management in Prince William Sound is that it may well be difficult to simultaneously increase the production of pink salmon and maintain a viable Pacific herring fishery. The impact can be extended to other commercially important fisheries, and a whole ecosystem approach may be needed to evaluate the costs and benefits of salmon hatcheries.

Partial Least Squares Regression Can Aid in Detecting Differential Abundance of Multiple Features in Sets of Metagenomic Samples

PubMed Central

Libiger, Ondrej; Schork, Nicholas J.

2015-01-01

It is now feasible to examine the composition and diversity of microbial communities (i.e., “microbiomes”) that populate different human organs and orifices using DNA sequencing and related technologies. To explore the potential links between changes in microbial communities and various diseases in the human body, it is essential to test associations involving different species within and across microbiomes, environmental settings and disease states. Although a number of statistical techniques exist for carrying out relevant analyses, it is unclear which of these techniques exhibit the greatest statistical power to detect associations given the complexity of most microbiome datasets. We compared the statistical power of principal component regression, partial least squares regression, regularized regression, distance-based regression, Hill's diversity measures, and a modified test implemented in the popular and widely used microbiome analysis methodology “Metastats” across a wide range of simulated scenarios involving changes in feature abundance between two sets of metagenomic samples. For this purpose, simulation studies were used to change the abundance of microbial species in a real dataset from a published study examining human hands. Each technique was applied to the same data, and its ability to detect the simulated change in abundance was assessed. We hypothesized that a small subset of methods would outperform the rest in terms of the statistical power. Indeed, we found that the Metastats technique modified to accommodate multivariate analysis and partial least squares regression yielded high power under the models and data sets we studied. The statistical power of diversity measure-based tests, distance-based regression and regularized regression was significantly lower. Our results provide insight into powerful analysis strategies that utilize information on species counts from large microbiome data sets exhibiting skewed frequency distributions obtained on a small to moderate number of samples. PMID:26734061

Ancestral state reconstructions require biological evidence to test evolutionary hypotheses: A case study examining the evolution of reproductive mode in squamate reptiles.

PubMed

Griffith, Oliver W; Blackburn, Daniel G; Brandley, Matthew C; Van Dyke, James U; Whittington, Camilla M; Thompson, Michael B

2015-09-01

To understand evolutionary transformations it is necessary to identify the character states of extinct ancestors. Ancestral character state reconstruction is inherently difficult because it requires an accurate phylogeny, character state data, and a statistical model of transition rates and is fundamentally constrained by missing data such as extinct taxa. We argue that model based ancestral character state reconstruction should be used to generate hypotheses but should not be considered an analytical endpoint. Using the evolution of viviparity and reversals to oviparity in squamates as a case study, we show how anatomical, physiological, and ecological data can be used to evaluate hypotheses about evolutionary transitions. The evolution of squamate viviparity requires changes to the timing of reproductive events and the successive loss of features responsible for building an eggshell. A reversal to oviparity requires that those lost traits re-evolve. We argue that the re-evolution of oviparity is inherently more difficult than the reverse. We outline how the inviability of intermediate phenotypes might present physiological barriers to reversals from viviparity to oviparity. Finally, we show that ecological data supports an oviparous ancestral state for squamates and multiple transitions to viviparity. In summary, we conclude that the first squamates were oviparous, that frequent transitions to viviparity have occurred, and that reversals to oviparity in viviparous lineages either have not occurred or are exceedingly rare. As this evidence supports conclusions that differ from previous ancestral state reconstructions, our paper highlights the importance of incorporating biological evidence to evaluate model-generated hypotheses. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A novel approach to generating CER hypotheses based on mining clinical data.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuo; Li, Lin; Yu, Yiqin; Sun, Xingzhi; Xu, Linhao; Zhao, Wei; Teng, Xiaofei; Pan, Yue

2013-01-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is a scientific method of investigating the effectiveness of alternative intervention methods. In a CER study, clinical researchers typically start with a CER hypothesis, and aim to evaluate it by applying a series of medical statistical methods. Traditionally, the CER hypotheses are defined manually by clinical researchers. This makes the task of hypothesis generation very time-consuming and the quality of hypothesis heavily dependent on the researchers' skills. Recently, with more electronic medical data being collected, it is highly promising to apply the computerized method for discovering CER hypotheses from clinical data sets. In this poster, we proposes a novel approach to automatically generating CER hypotheses based on mining clinical data, and presents a case study showing that the approach can facilitate clinical researchers to identify potentially valuable hypotheses and eventually define high quality CER studies.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Jackson, D D

1996-04-30

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Jackson, D D

1996-01-01

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions. PMID:11607663

An Open Label Clinical Trial of a Peptide Treatment Serum and Supporting Regimen Designed to Improve the Appearance of Aging Facial Skin.

PubMed

Draelos, Zoe Diana; Kononov, Tatiana; Fox, Theresa

2016-09-01

A 14-week single-center clinical usage study was conducted to test the efficacy of a peptide treatment serum and supporting skincare regimen in 29 women with mild to moderately photodamaged facial skin. The peptide treatment serum contained gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and various peptides with neurotransmitter inhibiting and cell signaling properties. It was hypothesized that the peptide treatment serum would ameliorate eye and facial expression lines including crow's feet and forehead lines. The efficacy of the supporting skincare regimen was also evaluated. An expert investigator examined the subjects at rest and at maximum smile. Additionally, the subjects completed self-assessment questionnaires. At week 14, the expert investigator found a statistically significant improvement in facial lines, facial wrinkles, eye lines, and eye wrinkles at rest when compared to baseline results. The expert investigator also found statistically significant improvement at week 14 in facial lines, eye lines, and eye wrinkles when compared to baseline results at maximum smile. In addition, there was continued highly statistically significant improvement in smoothness, softness, firmness, radiance, luminosity, and overall appearance at rest when compared to baseline results at the 14-week time point. The test regimen was well perceived by the subjects for efficacy and product attributes. The products were well tolerated with no adverse events.

J Drugs Dermatol. 2016;15(9):1100-1106.

Predictors of new graduate nurses' workplace well-being: testing the job demands-resources model.

PubMed

Spence Laschinger, Heather K; Grau, Ashley L; Finegan, Joan; Wilk, Piotr

2012-01-01

New graduate nurses currently experience a stressful transition into the workforce, resulting in high levels of burnout and job turnover in their first year of practice. This study tested a theoretical model of new graduate nurses' worklife derived from the job demands-resources model to better understand how job demands (workload and bullying), job resources (job control and supportive professional practice environments), and a personal resource (psychological capital) combine to influence new graduate experiences of burnout and work engagement and, ultimately, health and job outcomes. A descriptive correlational design was used to test the hypothesized model in a sample of newly graduated nurses (N = 420) working in acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Data were collected from July to November 2009. Participants were mailed questionnaires to their home address using the Total Design Method to improve response rates. All variables were measured using standardized questionnaires, and structural equation modeling was used to test the model. The final model fit statistics partially supported the original hypothesized model. In the final model, job demands (workload and bullying) predicted burnout and, subsequently, poor mental health. Job resources (supportive practice environment and control) predicted work engagement and, subsequently, lower turnover intentions. Burnout also was a significant predictor of turnover intent (a crossover effect). Furthermore, personal resources (psychological capital) significantly influenced both burnout and work engagement. The model suggests that managerial strategies targeted at specific job demands and resources can create workplace environments that promote work engagement and prevent burnout to support the retention and well-being of the new graduate nurse population.

Self-esteem and apparel satisfaction with appropriate clothing: value of product attributes and support groups for mastectomy survivors.

PubMed

Chowdhary, Usha; Ryan, Lenoraann

2003-08-01

The study examined use of appropriately designed clothing for special needs of postmastectomy women, including associations with self-esteem and satisfaction with certain apparel. The study was also designed to identify the person and product attributes valued by postmastectomy women while shopping for apparel items. A pre-posttest research design was used to examine the association of intervention, the self-esteem, and apparel satisfaction of the sample. Descriptive statistics were used for general information, as well as person and product attributes, and t tests were applied to test the two hypotheses. Analysis indicated that the intervention enhanced apparel satisfaction; however, the differences were not significant for self-esteem. The participants used support groups and evaluated several product attributes before making the apparel purchases. Implications for education, research, and service are discussed.

Emotion comprehension: the impact of nonverbal intelligence.

PubMed

Albanese, Ottavia; De Stasio, Simona; Di Chiacchio, Carlo; Fiorilli, Caterina; Pons, Francisco

2010-01-01

A substantial body of research has established that emotion understanding develops throughout early childhood and has identified three hierarchical developmental phases: external, mental, and reflexive. The authors analyzed nonverbal intelligence and its effect on children's improvement of emotion understanding and hypothesized that cognitive level is a consistent predictor of emotion comprehension. In all, 366 children (182 girls, 184 boys) between the ages of 3 and 10 years were tested using the Test of Emotion Comprehension and the Coloured Progressive Matrices. The data obtained by using the path analysis model revealed that nonverbal intelligence was statistically associated with the ability to recognize emotions in the 3 developmental phases. The use of this model showed the significant effect that cognitive aspect plays on the reflexive phase. The authors aim to contribute to the debate about the influence of cognitive factors on emotion understanding.

Hypothesis testing in functional linear regression models with Neyman's truncation and wavelet thresholding for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaowei; Nie, Kun

2008-03-15

Longitudinal data sets in biomedical research often consist of large numbers of repeated measures. In many cases, the trajectories do not look globally linear or polynomial, making it difficult to summarize the data or test hypotheses using standard longitudinal data analysis based on various linear models. An alternative approach is to apply the approaches of functional data analysis, which directly target the continuous nonlinear curves underlying discretely sampled repeated measures. For the purposes of data exploration, many functional data analysis strategies have been developed based on various schemes of smoothing, but fewer options are available for making causal inferences regarding predictor-outcome relationships, a common task seen in hypothesis-driven medical studies. To compare groups of curves, two testing strategies with good power have been proposed for high-dimensional analysis of variance: the Fourier-based adaptive Neyman test and the wavelet-based thresholding test. Using a smoking cessation clinical trial data set, this paper demonstrates how to extend the strategies for hypothesis testing into the framework of functional linear regression models (FLRMs) with continuous functional responses and categorical or continuous scalar predictors. The analysis procedure consists of three steps: first, apply the Fourier or wavelet transform to the original repeated measures; then fit a multivariate linear model in the transformed domain; and finally, test the regression coefficients using either adaptive Neyman or thresholding statistics. Since a FLRM can be viewed as a natural extension of the traditional multiple linear regression model, the development of this model and computational tools should enhance the capacity of medical statistics for longitudinal data.

Consequences of hydraulic trait coordination and their associated uncertainties for tropical forest function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, B. O.; Xu, C.; Koven, C.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Chambers, J. Q.; McDowell, N.

2017-12-01

Recent syntheses of variation in woody plant traits have emphasized how hydraulic traits - those related to the acquisition, transport and retention of water across roots, stems and leaves - are coordinated along a limited set of dimensions or sequence of responses (Reich 2014, Bartlett et al. 2016). However, in many hydraulic trait-trait relationships, there is considerable residual variation, despite the fact that many bivariate relationships are statistically significant. In other instances, such as the relationship between root-stem-leaf vulnerability to embolism, data are so limited that testing the trait coordination hypothesis is not yet possible. The impacts on plant hydraulic function of competing hypotheses regarding trait coordination (or the lack thereof) and residual trait variation have not yet been comprehensively tested and thus remain unknown. We addressed this knowledge gap with a parameter sensitivity analysis using a plant hydraulics model in which all parameters are biologically-interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits, as embedded within a size- and demographically-structured ecosystem model, the `Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator' (FATES). We focused on tropical forests, where co-existing species have been observed to possess large variability in their hydraulic traits. Assembling 10 distinct datasets of hydraulic traits of stomata, leaves, stems, and roots, we determined the best-fit theoretical distribution for each trait and quantified interspecific (between-species) trait-trait coordination in tropical forests as a rank correlation matrix. We imputed missing correlations with values based on competing hypotheses of trait coordination, such as coordinated shifts in embolism vulnerability from roots to shoots (the hydraulic fuse hypothesis). Based on the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test and our correlation matrix, we generated thousands of parameter sets for an ensemble of hydraulics model simulations at a tropical forest site in central Amazonia. We explore the sensitivity of simulated leaf water potential and stem sap flux in the context of hypotheses of trait-trait coordination and their associated uncertainties.

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pawlowsky-Glahn, V.

2009-01-01

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

PubMed Central

Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

2014-01-01

The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing members' neutralization intention to violate information security policy should be emphasized. PMID:24971373

An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

2014-01-01

The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing members' neutralization intention to violate information security policy should be emphasized.

Suicide among young rural Australians 1964-1993: a comparison with metropolitan trends.

PubMed

Dudley, M; Kelk, N; Florio, T; Howard, J; Waters, B; Haski, C; Alcock, M

1997-07-01

The study tested hypotheses that from 1964 to 1993: (1) suicide rates among Australian 15- to 24-year-old males rose more sharply in rural than metropolitan areas; (2) firearm suicide rates among 15- to 24-year-old males, declining throughout Australia recently, rose continuously in rural areas; (3) suicide rates among 15- to 24-year-old females did not change significantly in either metropolitan or rural areas. Suicides of those aged 10-24 years recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) were classified according to the subject's residential grouping. Rates were calculated using ABS population data corresponding to these groupings. Results were analysed using log-linear analysis and chi-square statistics. The results supported the first two hypotheses, but not the third. Suicide rates for 15- to 24-year-old males rose by a factor of 2.2 in metropolitan areas, by 4-fold in towns with populations between 4,000 and 25,000, and by 12-fold in towns with populations less than 4,000. Male firearm suicide rates continued to rise in rural areas, and the greatest proportion of deaths in those locations were by firearms, though male hanging rates increased most in recent years in all locations. Female youth suicide rates did not change overall, but in towns with populations less than 4,000, they increased 4.5-fold. Possible explanations for this epidemic, which are mostly speculative and require confirmation, are discussed.

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.

1978-01-01

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

PubMed

Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

Empirical Models of Social Learning in a Large, Evolving Network.

PubMed

Bener, Ayşe Başar; Çağlayan, Bora; Henry, Adam Douglas; Prałat, Paweł

2016-01-01

This paper advances theories of social learning through an empirical examination of how social networks change over time. Social networks are important for learning because they constrain individuals' access to information about the behaviors and cognitions of other people. Using data on a large social network of mobile device users over a one-month time period, we test three hypotheses: 1) attraction homophily causes individuals to form ties on the basis of attribute similarity, 2) aversion homophily causes individuals to delete existing ties on the basis of attribute dissimilarity, and 3) social influence causes individuals to adopt the attributes of others they share direct ties with. Statistical models offer varied degrees of support for all three hypotheses and show that these mechanisms are more complex than assumed in prior work. Although homophily is normally thought of as a process of attraction, people also avoid relationships with others who are different. These mechanisms have distinct effects on network structure. While social influence does help explain behavior, people tend to follow global trends more than they follow their friends.

A multilevel meta-analysis of single-case and small-n research on interventions for reducing challenging behavior in persons with intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

Heyvaert, M; Maes, B; Van den Noortgate, W; Kuppens, S; Onghena, P

2012-01-01

The effectiveness of different interventions for challenging behavior (CB) in persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) was reviewed by means of a two-phase study. First, a systematic review of 137 meta-analyses and reviews on group-study interventions for CB in persons with ID was conducted. Based on this review, hypotheses concerning the effectiveness of divergent interventions for CB and concerning the impact of variables moderating treatment effectiveness were systematically generated. Second, these hypotheses were tested by means of a multilevel meta-analysis of single-case and small-n research. Two hundred and eighty-five studies reporting on 598 individuals were examined. The average treatment effect was large and statistically significant. However, this effect varied significantly over the included studies and participants. Compared to the meta-analyses and reviews focusing on group-studies in this research domain, the results of the present multilevel meta-analysis of single-case and small-n intervention research provided more detailed knowledge on which specific CB and intervention components moderate the interventions' effectiveness. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing Psychotherapists’ Adoption and Implementation of the Evidence-based Practice of Progress Monitoring

PubMed Central

Persons, Jacqueline B.; Koerner, Kelly; Eidelman, Polina; Thomas, Cannon; Liu, Howard

2015-01-01

Evidence-based practices (EBPs) reach consumers slowly because practitioners are slow to adopt and implement them. We hypothesized that giving psychotherapists a tool + training intervention that was designed to help the therapist integrate the EBP of progress monitoring into his or her usual way of working would be associated with adoption and sustained implementation of the particular progress monitoring tool we trained them to use (the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales on our Online Progress Tracking tool) and would generalize to all types of progress monitoring measures. To test these hypotheses, we developed an online progress monitoring tool and a course that trained psychotherapists to use it, and we assessed progress monitoring behavior in 26 psychotherapists before, during, immediately after, and 12 months after they received the tool and training. Immediately after receiving the tool + training intervention, participants showed statistically significant increases in use of the online tool and of all types of progress monitoring measures. Twelve months later, participants showed sustained use of any type of progress monitoring measure but not the online tool. PMID:26618237

Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

PubMed

Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

2013-08-01

Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Increasing psychotherapists' adoption and implementation of the evidence-based practice of progress monitoring.

PubMed

Persons, Jacqueline B; Koerner, Kelly; Eidelman, Polina; Thomas, Cannon; Liu, Howard

2016-01-01

Evidence-based practices (EBPs) reach consumers slowly because practitioners are slow to adopt and implement them. We hypothesized that giving psychotherapists a tool + training intervention that was designed to help the therapist integrate the EBP of progress monitoring into his or her usual way of working would be associated with adoption and sustained implementation of the particular progress monitoring tool we trained them to use (the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales on our Online Progress Tracking tool) and would generalize to all types of progress monitoring measures. To test these hypotheses, we developed an online progress monitoring tool and a course that trained psychotherapists to use it, and we assessed progress monitoring behavior in 26 psychotherapists before, during, immediately after, and 12 months after they received the tool and training. Immediately after receiving the tool + training intervention, participants showed statistically significant increases in use of the online tool and of all types of progress monitoring measures. Twelve months later, participants showed sustained use of any type of progress monitoring measure but not the online tool. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Empirical Models of Social Learning in a Large, Evolving Network

PubMed Central

Bener, Ayşe Başar; Çağlayan, Bora; Henry, Adam Douglas; Prałat, Paweł

2016-01-01

This paper advances theories of social learning through an empirical examination of how social networks change over time. Social networks are important for learning because they constrain individuals’ access to information about the behaviors and cognitions of other people. Using data on a large social network of mobile device users over a one-month time period, we test three hypotheses: 1) attraction homophily causes individuals to form ties on the basis of attribute similarity, 2) aversion homophily causes individuals to delete existing ties on the basis of attribute dissimilarity, and 3) social influence causes individuals to adopt the attributes of others they share direct ties with. Statistical models offer varied degrees of support for all three hypotheses and show that these mechanisms are more complex than assumed in prior work. Although homophily is normally thought of as a process of attraction, people also avoid relationships with others who are different. These mechanisms have distinct effects on network structure. While social influence does help explain behavior, people tend to follow global trends more than they follow their friends. PMID:27701430

Understanding the heavy-tailed dynamics in human behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Gordon J.; Jones, Tim

2015-06-01

The recent availability of electronic data sets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of data sets, the interevent times between consecutive communication events obey heavy-tailed power law dynamics. Explaining this has proved controversial, and two distinct hypotheses have emerged. The first holds that these power laws are fundamental, and arise from the mechanisms such as priority queuing that humans use to schedule tasks. The second holds that they are statistical artifacts which only occur in aggregated data when features such as circadian rhythms and burstiness are ignored. We use a large social media data set to test these hypotheses, and find that although models that incorporate circadian rhythms and burstiness do explain part of the observed heavy tails, there is residual unexplained heavy-tail behavior which suggests a more fundamental cause. Based on this, we develop a quantitative model of human behavior which improves on existing approaches and gives insight into the mechanisms underlying human interactions.

Brief communication: Skeletal biology past and present: Are we moving in the right direction?

PubMed

Hens, Samantha M; Godde, Kanya

2008-10-01

In 1982, Spencer's edited volume A History of American Physical Anthropology: 1930-1980 allowed numerous authors to document the state of our science, including a critical examination of skeletal biology. Some authors argued that the first 50 years of skeletal biology were characterized by the descriptive-historical approach with little regard for processual problems and that technological and statistical analyses were not rooted in theory. In an effort to determine whether Spencer's landmark volume impacted the field of skeletal biology, a content analysis was carried out for the American Journal of Physical Anthropology from 1980 to 2004. The percentage of skeletal biology articles is similar to that of previous decades. Analytical articles averaged only 32% and are defined by three criteria: statistical analysis, hypothesis testing, and broader explanatory context. However, when these criteria were scored individually, nearly 80% of papers attempted a broader theoretical explanation, 44% tested hypotheses, and 67% used advanced statistics, suggesting that the skeletal biology papers in the journal have an analytical emphasis. Considerable fluctuation exists between subfields; trends toward a more analytical approach are witnessed in the subfields of age/sex/stature/demography, skeletal maturation, anatomy, and nonhuman primate studies, which also increased in frequency, while paleontology and pathology were largely descriptive. Comparisons to the International Journal of Osteoarchaeology indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the two journals in terms of analytical criteria. These data indicate a positive shift in theoretical thinking, i.e., an attempt by most to explain processes rather than present a simple description of events.

Learning Might Not Equal Liking: Research Methods Course Changes Knowledge But Not Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sizemore, O. J.; Lewandowski, Gary W., Jr.

2009-01-01

Students completed surveys at the beginning and end of a sophomore-level course on research and statistics. We hypothesized that the course would produce advances in knowledge of research and statistics and that those changes would be accompanied by more favorable attitudes toward the subject matter. Results showed that knowledge did increase…

Differential Effects of Goal Setting and Value Reappraisal on College Women's Motivation and Achievement in Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Acee, Taylor Wayne

2009-01-01

The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the differential effects of goal setting and value reappraisal on female students' self-efficacy beliefs, value perceptions, exam performance and continued interest in statistics. It was hypothesized that the Enhanced Goal Setting Intervention (GS-E) would positively impact students'…

The Measureable Effects of Closing a Branch Library: Circulation, Instruction, and Service Perception

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lange, Jessica; Lannon, Amber; McKinnon, Dawn

2014-01-01

This article explores the closing of the Howard Ross Library of Management at McGill University, Montreal, Canada. We hypothesized that closing a branch library would result in a decline in the use of library services. We measured library service using circulation statistics, library instruction workshop statistics, and data from the online survey…

Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data.

PubMed

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E

2016-01-01

The evidence compiled in the target article demonstrates that the assumptions of cultural group selection (CGS) theory are often met, and it is therefore a useful framework for generating plausible hypotheses. However, more can be said about how we can test the predictions of CGS hypotheses against competing explanations using historical, archaeological, and anthropological data.

Distinguishing Mediational Models and Analyses in Clinical Psychology: Atemporal Associations Do Not Imply Causation.

PubMed

Winer, E Samuel; Cervone, Daniel; Bryant, Jessica; McKinney, Cliff; Liu, Richard T; Nadorff, Michael R

2016-09-01

A popular way to attempt to discern causality in clinical psychology is through mediation analysis. However, mediation analysis is sometimes applied to research questions in clinical psychology when inferring causality is impossible. This practice may soon increase with new, readily available, and easy-to-use statistical advances. Thus, we here provide a heuristic to remind clinical psychological scientists of the assumptions of mediation analyses. We describe recent statistical advances and unpack assumptions of causality in mediation, underscoring the importance of time in understanding mediational hypotheses and analyses in clinical psychology. Example analyses demonstrate that statistical mediation can occur despite theoretical mediation being improbable. We propose a delineation of mediational effects derived from cross-sectional designs into the terms temporal and atemporal associations to emphasize time in conceptualizing process models in clinical psychology. The general implications for mediational hypotheses and the temporal frameworks from within which they may be drawn are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Plant selection for ethnobotanical uses on the Amalfi Coast (Southern Italy).

PubMed

Savo, V; Joy, R; Caneva, G; McClatchey, W C

2015-07-15

Many ethnobotanical studies have investigated selection criteria for medicinal and non-medicinal plants. In this paper we test several statistical methods using different ethnobotanical datasets in order to 1) define to which extent the nature of the datasets can affect the interpretation of results; 2) determine if the selection for different plant uses is based on phylogeny, or other selection criteria. We considered three different ethnobotanical datasets: two datasets of medicinal plants and a dataset of non-medicinal plants (handicraft production, domestic and agro-pastoral practices) and two floras of the Amalfi Coast. We performed residual analysis from linear regression, the binomial test and the Bayesian approach for calculating under-used and over-used plant families within ethnobotanical datasets. Percentages of agreement were calculated to compare the results of the analyses. We also analyzed the relationship between plant selection and phylogeny, chorology, life form and habitat using the chi-square test. Pearson's residuals for each of the significant chi-square analyses were examined for investigating alternative hypotheses of plant selection criteria. The three statistical analysis methods differed within the same dataset, and between different datasets and floras, but with some similarities. In the two medicinal datasets, only Lamiaceae was identified in both floras as an over-used family by all three statistical methods. All statistical methods in one flora agreed that Malvaceae was over-used and Poaceae under-used, but this was not found to be consistent with results of the second flora in which one statistical result was non-significant. All other families had some discrepancy in significance across methods, or floras. Significant over- or under-use was observed in only a minority of cases. The chi-square analyses were significant for phylogeny, life form and habitat. Pearson's residuals indicated a non-random selection of woody species for non-medicinal uses and an under-use of plants of temperate forests for medicinal uses. Our study showed that selection criteria for plant uses (including medicinal) are not always based on phylogeny. The comparison of different statistical methods (regression, binomial and Bayesian) under different conditions led to the conclusion that the most conservative results are obtained using regression analysis.

Supporting creativity and appreciation of uncertainty in exploring geo-coded public health data.

PubMed

Thew, S L; Sutcliffe, A; de Bruijn, O; McNaught, J; Procter, R; Jarvis, Paul; Buchan, I

2011-01-01

We present a prototype visualisation tool, ADVISES (Adaptive Visualization for e-Science), designed to support epidemiologists and public health practitioners in exploring geo-coded datasets and generating spatial epidemiological hypotheses. The tool is designed to support creative thinking while providing the means for the user to evaluate the validity of the visualization in terms of statistical uncertainty. We present an overview of the application and the results of an evaluation exploring public health researchers' responses to maps as a new way of viewing familiar data, in particular the use of thematic maps with adjoining descriptive statistics and forest plots to support the generation and evaluation of new hypotheses. A series of qualitative evaluations involved one experienced researcher asking 21 volunteers to interact with the system to perform a series of relatively complex, realistic map-building and exploration tasks, using a 'think aloud' protocol, followed by a semi-structured interview The volunteers were academic epidemiologists and UK National Health Service analysts. All users quickly and confidently created maps, and went on to spend substantial amounts of time exploring and interacting with system, generating hypotheses about their maps. Our findings suggest that the tool is able to support creativity and statistical appreciation among public health professionals and epidemiologists building thematic maps. Software such as this, introduced appropriately, could increase the capability of existing personnel for generating public health intelligence.

Statistical learning and probabilistic prediction in music cognition: mechanisms of stylistic enculturation.

PubMed

Pearce, Marcus T

2018-05-11

Music perception depends on internal psychological models derived through exposure to a musical culture. It is hypothesized that this musical enculturation depends on two cognitive processes: (1) statistical learning, in which listeners acquire internal cognitive models of statistical regularities present in the music to which they are exposed; and (2) probabilistic prediction based on these learned models that enables listeners to organize and process their mental representations of music. To corroborate these hypotheses, I review research that uses a computational model of probabilistic prediction based on statistical learning (the information dynamics of music (IDyOM) model) to simulate data from empirical studies of human listeners. The results show that a broad range of psychological processes involved in music perception-expectation, emotion, memory, similarity, segmentation, and meter-can be understood in terms of a single, underlying process of probabilistic prediction using learned statistical models. Furthermore, IDyOM simulations of listeners from different musical cultures demonstrate that statistical learning can plausibly predict causal effects of differential cultural exposure to musical styles, providing a quantitative model of cultural distance. Understanding the neural basis of musical enculturation will benefit from close coordination between empirical neuroimaging and computational modeling of underlying mechanisms, as outlined here. © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

Testing Multiple Outcomes in Repeated Measures Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lix, Lisa M.; Sajobi, Tolulope

2010-01-01

This study investigates procedures for controlling the familywise error rate (FWR) when testing hypotheses about multiple, correlated outcome variables in repeated measures (RM) designs. A content analysis of RM research articles published in 4 psychology journals revealed that 3 quarters of studies tested hypotheses about 2 or more outcome…

The revelation effect: A meta-analytic test of hypotheses.

PubMed

Aßfalg, André; Bernstein, Daniel M; Hockley, William

2017-12-01

Judgments can depend on the activity directly preceding them. An example is the revelation effect whereby participants are more likely to claim that a stimulus is familiar after a preceding task, such as solving an anagram, than without a preceding task. We test conflicting predictions of four revelation-effect hypotheses in a meta-analysis of 26 years of revelation-effect research. The hypotheses' predictions refer to three subject areas: (1) the basis of judgments that are subject to the revelation effect (recollection vs. familiarity vs. fluency), (2) the degree of similarity between the task and test item, and (3) the difficulty of the preceding task. We use a hierarchical multivariate meta-analysis to account for dependent effect sizes and variance in experimental procedures. We test the revelation-effect hypotheses with a model selection procedure, where each model corresponds to a prediction of a revelation-effect hypothesis. We further quantify the amount of evidence for one model compared to another with Bayes factors. The results of this analysis suggest that none of the extant revelation-effect hypotheses can fully account for the data. The general vagueness of revelation-effect hypotheses and the scarcity of data were the major limiting factors in our analyses, emphasizing the need for formalized theories and further research into the puzzling revelation effect.

Bayesian meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha to evaluate informative hypotheses.

PubMed

Okada, Kensuke

2015-12-01

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate informative hypotheses for meta-analysis of Cronbach's coefficient alpha using a Bayesian approach. The coefficient alpha is one of the most widely used reliability indices. In meta-analyses of reliability, researchers typically form specific informative hypotheses beforehand, such as 'alpha of this test is greater than 0.8' or 'alpha of one form of a test is greater than the others.' The proposed method enables direct evaluation of these informative hypotheses. To this end, a Bayes factor is calculated to evaluate the informative hypothesis against its complement. It allows researchers to summarize the evidence provided by previous studies in favor of their informative hypothesis. The proposed approach can be seen as a natural extension of the Bayesian meta-analysis of coefficient alpha recently proposed in this journal (Brannick and Zhang, 2013). The proposed method is illustrated through two meta-analyses of real data that evaluate different kinds of informative hypotheses on superpopulation: one is that alpha of a particular test is above the criterion value, and the other is that alphas among different test versions have ordered relationships. Informative hypotheses are supported from the data in both cases, suggesting that the proposed approach is promising for application. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increased scientific rigor will improve reliability of research and effectiveness of management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Bassing, Sarah B.; Barker, Kristin J.; Forshee, Shannon C.; Keever, Allison; Goerz, James W.; Mitchell, Michael S.

2018-01-01

Rigorous science that produces reliable knowledge is critical to wildlife management because it increases accurate understanding of the natural world and informs management decisions effectively. Application of a rigorous scientific method based on hypothesis testing minimizes unreliable knowledge produced by research. To evaluate the prevalence of scientific rigor in wildlife research, we examined 24 issues of the Journal of Wildlife Management from August 2013 through July 2016. We found 43.9% of studies did not state or imply a priori hypotheses, which are necessary to produce reliable knowledge. We posit that this is due, at least in part, to a lack of common understanding of what rigorous science entails, how it produces more reliable knowledge than other forms of interpreting observations, and how research should be designed to maximize inferential strength and usefulness of application. Current primary literature does not provide succinct explanations of the logic behind a rigorous scientific method or readily applicable guidance for employing it, particularly in wildlife biology; we therefore synthesized an overview of the history, philosophy, and logic that define scientific rigor for biological studies. A rigorous scientific method includes 1) generating a research question from theory and prior observations, 2) developing hypotheses (i.e., plausible biological answers to the question), 3) formulating predictions (i.e., facts that must be true if the hypothesis is true), 4) designing and implementing research to collect data potentially consistent with predictions, 5) evaluating whether predictions are consistent with collected data, and 6) drawing inferences based on the evaluation. Explicitly testing a priori hypotheses reduces overall uncertainty by reducing the number of plausible biological explanations to only those that are logically well supported. Such research also draws inferences that are robust to idiosyncratic observations and unavoidable human biases. Offering only post hoc interpretations of statistical patterns (i.e., a posteriorihypotheses) adds to uncertainty because it increases the number of plausible biological explanations without determining which have the greatest support. Further, post hocinterpretations are strongly subject to human biases. Testing hypotheses maximizes the credibility of research findings, makes the strongest contributions to theory and management, and improves reproducibility of research. Management decisions based on rigorous research are most likely to result in effective conservation of wildlife resources. 

Cluster-level statistical inference in fMRI datasets: The unexpected behavior of random fields in high dimensions.

PubMed

Bansal, Ravi; Peterson, Bradley S

2018-06-01

Identifying regional effects of interest in MRI datasets usually entails testing a priori hypotheses across many thousands of brain voxels, requiring control for false positive findings in these multiple hypotheses testing. Recent studies have suggested that parametric statistical methods may have incorrectly modeled functional MRI data, thereby leading to higher false positive rates than their nominal rates. Nonparametric methods for statistical inference when conducting multiple statistical tests, in contrast, are thought to produce false positives at the nominal rate, which has thus led to the suggestion that previously reported studies should reanalyze their fMRI data using nonparametric tools. To understand better why parametric methods may yield excessive false positives, we assessed their performance when applied both to simulated datasets of 1D, 2D, and 3D Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs) and to 710 real-world, resting-state fMRI datasets. We showed that both the simulated 2D and 3D GRFs and the real-world data contain a small percentage (<6%) of very large clusters (on average 60 times larger than the average cluster size), which were not present in 1D GRFs. These unexpectedly large clusters were deemed statistically significant using parametric methods, leading to empirical familywise error rates (FWERs) as high as 65%: the high empirical FWERs were not a consequence of parametric methods failing to model spatial smoothness accurately, but rather of these very large clusters that are inherently present in smooth, high-dimensional random fields. In fact, when discounting these very large clusters, the empirical FWER for parametric methods was 3.24%. Furthermore, even an empirical FWER of 65% would yield on average less than one of those very large clusters in each brain-wide analysis. Nonparametric methods, in contrast, estimated distributions from those large clusters, and therefore, by construct rejected the large clusters as false positives at the nominal FWERs. Those rejected clusters were outlying values in the distribution of cluster size but cannot be distinguished from true positive findings without further analyses, including assessing whether fMRI signal in those regions correlates with other clinical, behavioral, or cognitive measures. Rejecting the large clusters, however, significantly reduced the statistical power of nonparametric methods in detecting true findings compared with parametric methods, which would have detected most true findings that are essential for making valid biological inferences in MRI data. Parametric analyses, in contrast, detected most true findings while generating relatively few false positives: on average, less than one of those very large clusters would be deemed a true finding in each brain-wide analysis. We therefore recommend the continued use of parametric methods that model nonstationary smoothness for cluster-level, familywise control of false positives, particularly when using a Cluster Defining Threshold of 2.5 or higher, and subsequently assessing rigorously the biological plausibility of the findings, even for large clusters. Finally, because nonparametric methods yielded a large reduction in statistical power to detect true positive findings, we conclude that the modest reduction in false positive findings that nonparametric analyses afford does not warrant a re-analysis of previously published fMRI studies using nonparametric techniques. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using chick forebrain neurons to model neurodegeneration and protection in an undergraduate neuroscience laboratory course.

PubMed

Burdo, Joseph R

2013-01-01

Since 2009 at Boston College, we have been offering a Research in Neuroscience course using cultured neurons in an in vitro model of stroke. The students work in groups to learn how to perform sterile animal cell culture and run several basic bioassays to assess cell viability. They are then tasked with analyzing the scientific literature in an attempt to identify and predict the intracellular pathways involved in neuronal death, and identify dietary antioxidant compounds that may provide protection based on their known effects in other cells. After each group constructs a hypothesis pertaining to the potential neuroprotection, we purchase one compound per group and the students test their hypotheses using a commonly performed viability assay. The groups generate quantitative data and perform basic statistics on that data to analyze it for statistical significance. Finally, the groups compile their data and other elements of their research experience into a poster for our departmental research celebration at the end of the spring semester.

Using Chick Forebrain Neurons to Model Neurodegeneration and Protection in an Undergraduate Neuroscience Laboratory Course

PubMed Central

Burdo, Joseph R.

2013-01-01

Since 2009 at Boston College, we have been offering a Research in Neuroscience course using cultured neurons in an in vitro model of stroke. The students work in groups to learn how to perform sterile animal cell culture and run several basic bioassays to assess cell viability. They are then tasked with analyzing the scientific literature in an attempt to identify and predict the intracellular pathways involved in neuronal death, and identify dietary antioxidant compounds that may provide protection based on their known effects in other cells. After each group constructs a hypothesis pertaining to the potential neuroprotection, we purchase one compound per group and the students test their hypotheses using a commonly performed viability assay. The groups generate quantitative data and perform basic statistics on that data to analyze it for statistical significance. Finally, the groups compile their data and other elements of their research experience into a poster for our departmental research celebration at the end of the spring semester. PMID:23805059

A statistical approach to combining multisource information in one-class classifiers

DOE PAGES

Simonson, Katherine M.; Derek West, R.; Hansen, Ross L.; ...

2017-06-08

A new method is introduced in this paper for combining information from multiple sources to support one-class classification. The contributing sources may represent measurements taken by different sensors of the same physical entity, repeated measurements by a single sensor, or numerous features computed from a single measured image or signal. The approach utilizes the theory of statistical hypothesis testing, and applies Fisher's technique for combining p-values, modified to handle nonindependent sources. Classifier outputs take the form of fused p-values, which may be used to gauge the consistency of unknown entities with one or more class hypotheses. The approach enables rigorousmore » assessment of classification uncertainties, and allows for traceability of classifier decisions back to the constituent sources, both of which are important for high-consequence decision support. Application of the technique is illustrated in two challenge problems, one for skin segmentation and the other for terrain labeling. Finally, the method is seen to be particularly effective for relatively small training samples.« less

A statistical approach to combining multisource information in one-class classifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simonson, Katherine M.; Derek West, R.; Hansen, Ross L.

A new method is introduced in this paper for combining information from multiple sources to support one-class classification. The contributing sources may represent measurements taken by different sensors of the same physical entity, repeated measurements by a single sensor, or numerous features computed from a single measured image or signal. The approach utilizes the theory of statistical hypothesis testing, and applies Fisher's technique for combining p-values, modified to handle nonindependent sources. Classifier outputs take the form of fused p-values, which may be used to gauge the consistency of unknown entities with one or more class hypotheses. The approach enables rigorousmore » assessment of classification uncertainties, and allows for traceability of classifier decisions back to the constituent sources, both of which are important for high-consequence decision support. Application of the technique is illustrated in two challenge problems, one for skin segmentation and the other for terrain labeling. Finally, the method is seen to be particularly effective for relatively small training samples.« less

Reducing child mortality in Nigeria: a case study of immunization and systemic factors.

PubMed

Nwogu, Rufus; Ngowu, Rufus; Larson, James S; Kim, Min Su

2008-07-01

The purpose of the study is to assess the outcome of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Nigeria, as well as to examine systemic factors influencing its high under-five mortality rate (UFMR). The principal objective of the EPI program when it was implemented in 1978 was to reduce mortality, morbidity and disability associated with six vaccine preventable diseases namely tuberculosis, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, pertussis and poliomyelitis. The methodological approach to this study is quantitative, using secondary time series data from 1970 to 2003. The study tested three hypotheses using time series multiple regression analysis with autocorrelation adjustment as a statistical model. The results showed that the EPI program had little effect on UFMR in Nigeria. Only the literacy rate and domestic spending on healthcare had statistically significant effects on the UFMR. The military government was not a significant factor in reducing or increasing the UFMR. It appears that Nigeria needs a unified approach to healthcare delivery, rather than fragmented programs, to overcome cultural and political divisions in society.

Phylogenetic relationships of South American lizards of the genus Stenocercus (Squamata: Iguania): A new approach using a general mixture model for gene sequence data.

PubMed

Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Schulte, James A; Cadle, John E

2006-04-01

The South American iguanian lizard genus Stenocercus includes 54 species occurring mostly in the Andes and adjacent lowland areas from northern Venezuela and Colombia to central Argentina at elevations of 0-4000m. Small taxon or character sampling has characterized all phylogenetic analyses of Stenocercus, which has long been recognized as sister taxon to the Tropidurus Group. In this study, we use mtDNA sequence data to perform phylogenetic analyses that include 32 species of Stenocercus and 12 outgroup taxa. Monophyly of this genus is strongly supported by maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Evolutionary relationships within Stenocercus are further analyzed with a Bayesian implementation of a general mixture model, which accommodates variability in the pattern of evolution across sites. These analyses indicate a basal split of Stenocercus into two clades, one of which receives very strong statistical support. In addition, we test previous hypotheses using non-parametric and parametric statistical methods, and provide a phylogenetic classification for Stenocercus.

Interpreting the gamma statistic in phylogenetic diversification rate studies: a rate decrease does not necessarily indicate an early burst.

PubMed

Fordyce, James A

2010-07-23

Phylogenetic hypotheses are increasingly being used to elucidate historical patterns of diversification rate-variation. Hypothesis testing is often conducted by comparing the observed vector of branching times to a null, pure-birth expectation. A popular method for inferring a decrease in speciation rate, which might suggest an early burst of diversification followed by a decrease in diversification rate is the gamma statistic. Using simulations under varying conditions, I examine the sensitivity of gamma to the distribution of the most recent branching times. Using an exploratory data analysis tool for lineages through time plots, tree deviation, I identified trees with a significant gamma statistic that do not appear to have the characteristic early accumulation of lineages consistent with an early, rapid rate of cladogenesis. I further investigated the sensitivity of the gamma statistic to recent diversification by examining the consequences of failing to simulate the full time interval following the most recent cladogenic event. The power of gamma to detect rate decrease at varying times was assessed for simulated trees with an initial high rate of diversification followed by a relatively low rate. The gamma statistic is extraordinarily sensitive to recent diversification rates, and does not necessarily detect early bursts of diversification. This was true for trees of various sizes and completeness of taxon sampling. The gamma statistic had greater power to detect recent diversification rate decreases compared to early bursts of diversification. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the gamma statistic as an indication of early, rapid diversification.

Adaptive graph-based multiple testing procedures

PubMed Central

Klinglmueller, Florian; Posch, Martin; Koenig, Franz

2016-01-01

Multiple testing procedures defined by directed, weighted graphs have recently been proposed as an intuitive visual tool for constructing multiple testing strategies that reflect the often complex contextual relations between hypotheses in clinical trials. Many well-known sequentially rejective tests, such as (parallel) gatekeeping tests or hierarchical testing procedures are special cases of the graph based tests. We generalize these graph-based multiple testing procedures to adaptive trial designs with an interim analysis. These designs permit mid-trial design modifications based on unblinded interim data as well as external information, while providing strong family wise error rate control. To maintain the familywise error rate, it is not required to prespecify the adaption rule in detail. Because the adaptive test does not require knowledge of the multivariate distribution of test statistics, it is applicable in a wide range of scenarios including trials with multiple treatment comparisons, endpoints or subgroups, or combinations thereof. Examples of adaptations are dropping of treatment arms, selection of subpopulations, and sample size reassessment. If, in the interim analysis, it is decided to continue the trial as planned, the adaptive test reduces to the originally planned multiple testing procedure. Only if adaptations are actually implemented, an adjusted test needs to be applied. The procedure is illustrated with a case study and its operating characteristics are investigated by simulations. PMID:25319733

Is the fish embryo toxicity test (FET) with the zebrafish (Danio rerio) a potential alternative for the fish acute toxicity test?

PubMed

Lammer, E; Carr, G J; Wendler, K; Rawlings, J M; Belanger, S E; Braunbeck, Th

2009-03-01

The fish acute toxicity test is a mandatory component in the base set of data requirements for ecotoxicity testing. The fish acute toxicity test is not compatible with most current animal welfare legislation because mortality is the primary endpoint and it is often hypothesized that fish suffer distress and perhaps pain. Animal alternative considerations have also been incorporated into new European REACH regulations through strong advocacy for the reduction of testing with live animals. One of the most promising alternative approaches to classical acute fish toxicity testing with live fish is the fish embryo toxicity (FET) test. The FET has been a mandatory component in routine whole effluent testing in Germany since 2005 and has already been standardized at the international level. In order to analyze the applicability of the FET also in chemical testing, a comparative re-evaluation of both fish and fish embryo toxicity data was carried out for a total of 143 substances, and statistical approaches were developed to evaluate the correlation between fish and fish embryo toxicity data. Results confirm that fish embryo tests are neither better nor worse than acute fish toxicity tests and provide strong scientific support for the FET as a surrogate for the acute fish toxicity test.

Nursing Theory, Terminology, and Big Data: Data-Driven Discovery of Novel Patterns in Archival Randomized Clinical Trial Data.

PubMed

Monsen, Karen A; Kelechi, Teresa J; McRae, Marion E; Mathiason, Michelle A; Martin, Karen S

The growth and diversification of nursing theory, nursing terminology, and nursing data enable a convergence of theory- and data-driven discovery in the era of big data research. Existing datasets can be viewed through theoretical and terminology perspectives using visualization techniques in order to reveal new patterns and generate hypotheses. The Omaha System is a standardized terminology and metamodel that makes explicit the theoretical perspective of the nursing discipline and enables terminology-theory testing research. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the approach by exploring a large research dataset consisting of 95 variables (demographics, temperature measures, anthropometrics, and standardized instruments measuring quality of life and self-efficacy) from a theory-based perspective using the Omaha System. Aims were to (a) examine the Omaha System dataset to understand the sample at baseline relative to Omaha System problem terms and outcome measures, (b) examine relationships within the normalized Omaha System dataset at baseline in predicting adherence, and (c) examine relationships within the normalized Omaha System dataset at baseline in predicting incident venous ulcer. Variables from a randomized clinical trial of a cryotherapy intervention for the prevention of venous ulcers were mapped onto Omaha System terms and measures to derive a theoretical framework for the terminology-theory testing study. The original dataset was recoded using the mapping to create an Omaha System dataset, which was then examined using visualization to generate hypotheses. The hypotheses were tested using standard inferential statistics. Logistic regression was used to predict adherence and incident venous ulcer. Findings revealed novel patterns in the psychosocial characteristics of the sample that were discovered to be drivers of both adherence (Mental health Behavior: OR = 1.28, 95% CI [1.02, 1.60]; AUC = .56) and incident venous ulcer (Mental health Behavior: OR = 0.65, 95% CI [0.45, 0.93]; Neuro-musculo-skeletal function Status: OR = 0.69, 95% CI [0.47, 1.00]; male: OR = 3.08, 95% CI [1.15, 8.24]; not married: OR = 2.70, 95% CI [1.00, 7.26]; AUC = .76). The Omaha System was employed as ontology, nursing theory, and terminology to bridge data and theory and may be considered a data-driven theorizing methodology. Novel findings suggest a relationship between psychosocial factors and incident venous ulcer outcomes. There is potential to employ this method in further research, which is needed to generate and test hypotheses from other datasets to extend scientific investigations from existing data.

Roles of Abductive Reasoning and Prior Belief in Children's Generation of Hypotheses about Pendulum Motion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Yong-Ju; Jeong, Jin-Su; Park, Yun-Bok

2006-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to test the hypothesis that student's abductive reasoning skills play an important role in the generation of hypotheses on pendulum motion tasks. To test the hypothesis, a hypothesis-generating test on pendulum motion, and a prior-belief test about pendulum motion were developed and administered to a sample of…

L'enseignement d'une langue (non-maternelle ou maternelle) aux apprenants en difficulté et aux enfants issus de milieux socialement défavorisés

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wambach, Michel

1986-06-01

Official statistics reveal a high percentage of school failure at primary-school level in Belgium, notably among children from socially disadvantaged backgrounds, be they francophone or foreign. Furthermore, the percentage of adult illiteracy is rising. These situations share a common root: the methodology of the mother tongue at school and the approach to the written language in particular. After defining the psychological objective of a language course the present study proposes a methodology, a synthesis of up-to-date psycho-pedagogical, linguistic and (neuro) biological trends. The data from this research make it possible to verify the working hypotheses which have been elaborated and revised over the last twenty years. Within the recommended methodology, the libération de la parole (`liberation of speech') occupies an important place. This initial stage increases and reinforces the creative dispositions in the child and prepares for real language activities. These help the child to communicate and enable a functional learning of the language. The methodology of reading takes into account research conducted on the operation of the memory and the selective activity of the brain. A first evaluation of the methodology has verified the working hypotheses. Moreover, the pupils in the experimental classes obtained markedly higher grades in tests such as reading comprehension, elaborating texts and in those tests calling for imagination and creativity.

Effect of phosphorus availability on the selection of species with different ploidy levels and genome sizes in a long-term grassland fertilization experiment.

PubMed

Šmarda, Petr; Hejcman, Michal; Březinová, Alexandra; Horová, Lucie; Steigerová, Helena; Zedek, František; Bureš, Petr; Hejcmanová, Pavla; Schellberg, Jürgen

2013-11-01

Polyploidy and increased genome size are hypothesized to increase organismal nutrient demands, namely of phosphorus (P), which is an essential and abundant component of nucleic acids. Therefore, polyploids and plants with larger genomes are expected to be selectively disadvantaged in P-limited environments. However, this hypothesis has yet to be experimentally tested. We measured the somatic DNA content and ploidy level in 74 vascular plant species in a long-term fertilization experiment. The differences between the fertilizer treatments regarding the DNA content and ploidy level of the established species were tested using phylogeny-based statistics. The percentage and biomass of polyploid species clearly increased with soil P in particular fertilizer treatments, and a similar but weaker trend was observed for the DNA content. These increases were associated with the dominance of competitive life strategy (particularly advantageous in the P-treated plots) in polyploids and the enhanced competitive ability of dominant polyploid grasses at high soil P concentrations, indicating their increased P limitation. Our results verify the hypothesized effect of P availability on the selection of polyploids and plants with increased genome sizes, although the relative contribution of increased P demands vs increased competitiveness as causes of the observed pattern requires further evaluation. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Evaluating Common Hypotheses for Violence in Central America

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

53  Table 6.  Key Police Statistics , 2013 ........................................................................58  Table 7.  Length of...unemployment and the lack of social mobility as a key driver to delinquency , especially for young adult males.5 Some attribute increasing violence in...as well as statistics and other metrics that might reveal correlations between policies and violence rates. 13 II. EVALUATING THE STRUCTURAL

Manipulating the Alpha Level Cannot Cure Significance Testing.

PubMed

Trafimow, David; Amrhein, Valentin; Areshenkoff, Corson N; Barrera-Causil, Carlos J; Beh, Eric J; Bilgiç, Yusuf K; Bono, Roser; Bradley, Michael T; Briggs, William M; Cepeda-Freyre, Héctor A; Chaigneau, Sergio E; Ciocca, Daniel R; Correa, Juan C; Cousineau, Denis; de Boer, Michiel R; Dhar, Subhra S; Dolgov, Igor; Gómez-Benito, Juana; Grendar, Marian; Grice, James W; Guerrero-Gimenez, Martin E; Gutiérrez, Andrés; Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Jaffe, Klaus; Janyan, Armina; Karimnezhad, Ali; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Kosugi, Koji; Lachmair, Martin; Ledesma, Rubén D; Limongi, Roberto; Liuzza, Marco T; Lombardo, Rosaria; Marks, Michael J; Meinlschmidt, Gunther; Nalborczyk, Ladislas; Nguyen, Hung T; Ospina, Raydonal; Perezgonzalez, Jose D; Pfister, Roland; Rahona, Juan J; Rodríguez-Medina, David A; Romão, Xavier; Ruiz-Fernández, Susana; Suarez, Isabel; Tegethoff, Marion; Tejo, Mauricio; van de Schoot, Rens; Vankov, Ivan I; Velasco-Forero, Santiago; Wang, Tonghui; Yamada, Yuki; Zoppino, Felipe C M; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando

2018-01-01

We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance testing altogether. There are alternatives that address study design and sample size much more directly than significance testing does; but none of the statistical tools should be taken as the new magic method giving clear-cut mechanical answers. Inference should not be based on single studies at all, but on cumulative evidence from multiple independent studies. When evaluating the strength of the evidence, we should consider, for example, auxiliary assumptions, the strength of the experimental design, and implications for applications. To boil all this down to a binary decision based on a p -value threshold of 0.05, 0.01, 0.005, or anything else, is not acceptable.

Manipulating the Alpha Level Cannot Cure Significance Testing

PubMed Central

Trafimow, David; Amrhein, Valentin; Areshenkoff, Corson N.; Barrera-Causil, Carlos J.; Beh, Eric J.; Bilgiç, Yusuf K.; Bono, Roser; Bradley, Michael T.; Briggs, William M.; Cepeda-Freyre, Héctor A.; Chaigneau, Sergio E.; Ciocca, Daniel R.; Correa, Juan C.; Cousineau, Denis; de Boer, Michiel R.; Dhar, Subhra S.; Dolgov, Igor; Gómez-Benito, Juana; Grendar, Marian; Grice, James W.; Guerrero-Gimenez, Martin E.; Gutiérrez, Andrés; Huedo-Medina, Tania B.; Jaffe, Klaus; Janyan, Armina; Karimnezhad, Ali; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Kosugi, Koji; Lachmair, Martin; Ledesma, Rubén D.; Limongi, Roberto; Liuzza, Marco T.; Lombardo, Rosaria; Marks, Michael J.; Meinlschmidt, Gunther; Nalborczyk, Ladislas; Nguyen, Hung T.; Ospina, Raydonal; Perezgonzalez, Jose D.; Pfister, Roland; Rahona, Juan J.; Rodríguez-Medina, David A.; Romão, Xavier; Ruiz-Fernández, Susana; Suarez, Isabel; Tegethoff, Marion; Tejo, Mauricio; van de Schoot, Rens; Vankov, Ivan I.; Velasco-Forero, Santiago; Wang, Tonghui; Yamada, Yuki; Zoppino, Felipe C. M.; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando

2018-01-01

We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance testing altogether. There are alternatives that address study design and sample size much more directly than significance testing does; but none of the statistical tools should be taken as the new magic method giving clear-cut mechanical answers. Inference should not be based on single studies at all, but on cumulative evidence from multiple independent studies. When evaluating the strength of the evidence, we should consider, for example, auxiliary assumptions, the strength of the experimental design, and implications for applications. To boil all this down to a binary decision based on a p-value threshold of 0.05, 0.01, 0.005, or anything else, is not acceptable. PMID:29867666

How to get statistically significant effects in any ERP experiment (and why you shouldn't).

PubMed

Luck, Steven J; Gaspelin, Nicholas

2017-01-01

ERP experiments generate massive datasets, often containing thousands of values for each participant, even after averaging. The richness of these datasets can be very useful in testing sophisticated hypotheses, but this richness also creates many opportunities to obtain effects that are statistically significant but do not reflect true differences among groups or conditions (bogus effects). The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how common and seemingly innocuous methods for quantifying and analyzing ERP effects can lead to very high rates of significant but bogus effects, with the likelihood of obtaining at least one such bogus effect exceeding 50% in many experiments. We focus on two specific problems: using the grand-averaged data to select the time windows and electrode sites for quantifying component amplitudes and latencies, and using one or more multifactor statistical analyses. Reanalyses of prior data and simulations of typical experimental designs are used to show how these problems can greatly increase the likelihood of significant but bogus results. Several strategies are described for avoiding these problems and for increasing the likelihood that significant effects actually reflect true differences among groups or conditions. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

How to Get Statistically Significant Effects in Any ERP Experiment (and Why You Shouldn’t)

PubMed Central

Luck, Steven J.; Gaspelin, Nicholas

2016-01-01

Event-related potential (ERP) experiments generate massive data sets, often containing thousands of values for each participant, even after averaging. The richness of these data sets can be very useful in testing sophisticated hypotheses, but this richness also creates many opportunities to obtain effects that are statistically significant but do not reflect true differences among groups or conditions (bogus effects). The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how common and seemingly innocuous methods for quantifying and analyzing ERP effects can lead to very high rates of significant-but-bogus effects, with the likelihood of obtaining at least one such bogus effect exceeding 50% in many experiments. We focus on two specific problems: using the grand average data to select the time windows and electrode sites for quantifying component amplitudes and latencies, and using one or more multi-factor statistical analyses. Re-analyses of prior data and simulations of typical experimental designs are used to show how these problems can greatly increase the likelihood of significant-but-bogus results. Several strategies are described for avoiding these problems and for increasing the likelihood that significant effects actually reflect true differences among groups or conditions. PMID:28000253

Connectopic mapping with resting-state fMRI.

PubMed

Haak, Koen V; Marquand, Andre F; Beckmann, Christian F

2018-04-15

Brain regions are often topographically connected: nearby locations within one brain area connect with nearby locations in another area. Mapping these connection topographies, or 'connectopies' in short, is crucial for understanding how information is processed in the brain. Here, we propose principled, fully data-driven methods for mapping connectopies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired at rest by combining spectral embedding of voxel-wise connectivity 'fingerprints' with a novel approach to spatial statistical inference. We apply the approach in human primary motor and visual cortex, and show that it can trace biologically plausible, overlapping connectopies in individual subjects that follow these regions' somatotopic and retinotopic maps. As a generic mechanism to perform inference over connectopies, the new spatial statistics approach enables rigorous statistical testing of hypotheses regarding the fine-grained spatial profile of functional connectivity and whether that profile is different between subjects or between experimental conditions. The combined framework offers a fundamental alternative to existing approaches to investigating functional connectivity in the brain, from voxel- or seed-pair wise characterizations of functional association, towards a full, multivariate characterization of spatial topography. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistics of Fractionalized Excitations through Threshold Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Morampudi, Siddhardh C; Turner, Ari M; Pollmann, Frank; Wilczek, Frank

2017-06-02

We show that neutral anyonic excitations have a signature in spectroscopic measurements of materials: The low-energy onset of spectral functions near the threshold follows universal power laws with an exponent that depends only on the statistics of the anyons. This provides a route, using experimental techniques such as neutron scattering and tunneling spectroscopy, for detecting anyonic statistics in topologically ordered states such as gapped quantum spin liquids and hypothesized fractional Chern insulators. Our calculations also explain some recent theoretical results in spin systems.

Delinquency and Peer Acceptance in Adolescence: A Within-Person Test of Moffitt's Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rulison, Kelly L.; Kreager, Derek A.; Osgood, D. Wayne

2014-01-01

We tested 2 hypotheses derived from Moffitt's (1993) taxonomic theory of antisocial behavior, both of which are central to her explanation for the rise in delinquency during adolescence. We tested whether persistently delinquent individuals become more accepted by their peers during adolescence and whether individuals who abstain from delinquent…

Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter

2017-03-01

This paper introduces the papers in the "Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology" series. The four articles in the series discuss whether and how the process of testing hypotheses leads to progress in hydrology. Repeated experiments with controlled boundary conditions are rarely feasible in hydrology. Research is therefore not easily aligned with the classical scientific method of testing hypotheses. Hypotheses in hydrology are often enshrined in computer models which are tested against observed data. Testability may be limited due to model complexity and data uncertainty. All four articles suggest that hypothesis testing has contributed to progress in hydrology and is needed in the future. However, the procedure is usually not as systematic as the philosophy of science suggests. A greater emphasis on a creative reasoning process on the basis of clues and explorative analyses is therefore needed.

Is perceived emotional support beneficial? Well-being and health in independent and interdependent cultures.

PubMed

Uchida, Yukiko; Kitayama, Shinobu; Mesquita, Batja; Reyes, Jose Alberto S; Morling, Beth

2008-06-01

Previous studies show there is little or no association between perceived emotional support and well-being in European American culture. The authors hypothesized that this paradoxical absence of any benefit of perceived support is unique to cultural contexts that privilege independence rather than interdependence of the self. Study 1 tested college students and found, as predicted, that among Euro-Americans a positive effect of perceived emotional support on subjective well-being (positive affect) was weak and, moreover, it disappeared entirely once self-esteem was statistically controlled. In contrast, among Asians in Asia (Japanese and Filipinos) perceived emotional support positively predicted subjective well-being even after self-esteem was controlled. Study 2 extended Study 1 by testing both Japanese and American adults in midlife with respect to multiple indicators of well-being and physical health. Overall, the evidence underscores the central significance of culture as a moderator of the effectiveness of perceived emotional support.

A Systematic Review of Strategies for Implementing Empirically Supported Mental Health Interventions

PubMed Central

Powell, Byron J.; Proctor, Enola K.; Glass, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Objective This systematic review examines experimental studies that test the effectiveness of strategies intended to integrate empirically supported mental health interventions into routine care settings. Our goal was to characterize the state of the literature and to provide direction for future implementation studies. Methods A literature search was conducted using electronic databases and a manual search. Results Eleven studies were identified that tested implementation strategies with a randomized (n = 10) or controlled clinical trial design (n = 1). The wide range of clinical interventions, implementation strategies, and outcomes evaluated precluded meta-analysis. However, the majority of studies (n = 7; 64%) found a statistically significant effect in the hypothesized direction for at least one implementation or clinical outcome. Conclusions There is a clear need for more rigorous research on the effectiveness of implementation strategies, and we provide several suggestions that could improve this research area. PMID:24791131

Estimating effects of limiting factors with regression quantiles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.; Schroeder, R.L.

1999-01-01

In a recent Concepts paper in Ecology, Thomson et al. emphasized that assumptions of conventional correlation and regression analyses fundamentally conflict with the ecological concept of limiting factors, and they called for new statistical procedures to address this problem. The analytical issue is that unmeasured factors may be the active limiting constraint and may induce a pattern of unequal variation in the biological response variable through an interaction with the measured factors. Consequently, changes near the maxima, rather than at the center of response distributions, are better estimates of the effects expected when the observed factor is the active limiting constraint. Regression quantiles provide estimates for linear models fit to any part of a response distribution, including near the upper bounds, and require minimal assumptions about the form of the error distribution. Regression quantiles extend the concept of one-sample quantiles to the linear model by solving an optimization problem of minimizing an asymmetric function of absolute errors. Rank-score tests for regression quantiles provide tests of hypotheses and confidence intervals for parameters in linear models with heteroscedastic errors, conditions likely to occur in models of limiting ecological relations. We used selected regression quantiles (e.g., 5th, 10th, ..., 95th) and confidence intervals to test hypotheses that parameters equal zero for estimated changes in average annual acorn biomass due to forest canopy cover of oak (Quercus spp.) and oak species diversity. Regression quantiles also were used to estimate changes in glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum) seedling numbers as a function of lily flower numbers, rockiness, and pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides fossor) activity, data that motivated the query by Thomson et al. for new statistical procedures. Both example applications showed that effects of limiting factors estimated by changes in some upper regression quantile (e.g., 90-95th) were greater than if effects were estimated by changes in the means from standard linear model procedures. Estimating a range of regression quantiles (e.g., 5-95th) provides a comprehensive description of biological response patterns for exploratory and inferential analyses in observational studies of limiting factors, especially when sampling large spatial and temporal scales.

On testing for spatial correspondence between maps of human brain structure and function.

PubMed

Alexander-Bloch, Aaron F; Shou, Haochang; Liu, Siyuan; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Glahn, David C; Shinohara, Russell T; Vandekar, Simon N; Raznahan, Armin

2018-06-01

A critical issue in many neuroimaging studies is the comparison between brain maps. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how one should test hypotheses focused on the overlap or spatial correspondence between two or more brain maps. This "correspondence problem" affects, for example, the interpretation of comparisons between task-based patterns of functional activation, resting-state networks or modules, and neuroanatomical landmarks. To date, this problem has been addressed with remarkable variability in terms of methodological approaches and statistical rigor. In this paper, we address the correspondence problem using a spatial permutation framework to generate null models of overlap by applying random rotations to spherical representations of the cortical surface, an approach for which we also provide a theoretical statistical foundation. We use this method to derive clusters of cognitive functions that are correlated in terms of their functional neuroatomical substrates. In addition, using publicly available data, we formally demonstrate the correspondence between maps of task-based functional activity, resting-state fMRI networks and gyral-based anatomical landmarks. We provide open-access code to implement the methods presented for two commonly-used tools for surface based cortical analysis (https://www.github.com/spin-test). This spatial permutation approach constitutes a useful advance over widely-used methods for the comparison of cortical maps, thereby opening new possibilities for the integration of diverse neuroimaging data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of pH on Prokaryotic Cell Size and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundararajan, D.; Gutierrez, F.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

2015-12-01

The pH of a habitat is essential to an organism's growth and success in its environment. Although most organisms maintain a neutral internal pH, their environmental pH can vary greatly. However, little research has been done concerning an organism's environmental pH across a wide range of taxa. We studied pH tolerance in prokaryotes and its relationship with biovolume, taxonomic classification, and ideal temperature. We had three hypotheses: pH and temperature are not correlated; pH tolerance is similar within taxonomic groups; and extremophiles have small cell sizes. To test these hypotheses, we used pH, size, and taxonomic data from The Prokaryotes. We found that the mean optimum external pH was neutral for prokaryotes as a whole and when divided by domain, phylum, and class. Using ANOVA to test for pH within and among group variances, we found that variation of pH in domains, phyla, classes, and families was greater than between them. pH and size did not show much of a correlation, except that the largest and smallest sized prokaryotes had nearly neutral pH. This seems significant because extremophiles need to divert more of their energy from growth to maintain a neutral internal pH. Acidophiles showed a larger range of optimum pH values than alkaliphiles. A similar result was seen with the minimum and maximum pH values of acidophiles and alkaliphiles. While acidophiles were spread out and had some alkaline maximum values, alkaliphiles had smaller ranges, and unlike some acidophiles that had pH minimums close to zero, alkaliphile pH maximums did not go beyond a pH of 12. No statistically significant differences were found between sizes of acidophiles and alkaliphiles. However, optimum temperatures of acidophiles and alkaliphiles did have a statistically significant difference. pH and temperature had a negative correlation. Therefore, pH seems to have a correlation with cell size, temperature, and taxonomy to some extent.

An exploratory examination of the relationships among emotional intelligence, elementary school science teacher self-efficacy, length of teaching experience, race/ethnicity, gender, and age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okech, Allan P.

The purpose of the study was to examine the relationships among emotional intelligence, teacher self-efficacy, length of teaching experience, and age in a sample of south Texas public school teachers. Additionally, the study examined differences in emotional intelligence between male teachers and female teachers, and among African American, Hispanics, and White teachers. Participants were 180 elementary science teachers from south Texas public schools. The sample was made up of 14 (7.8%) males and 166 (92.2%) females. Regarding race/ethnicity, the study sample consisted of 31 (17.2%) African Americans (3 males and 28 females), 49 (27.2) Hispanics (7 males and 42 females), 98 (54.4%) Whites (3 males and 95 females), and 2 (1.1%) "Other" (1 male and 1 female). Participants ranged in age from 23 years to 65 years. Five hypotheses were proposed and tested to address the relationships under investigation. The study employed a mixed methods---correlational and causal-comparative---research design approach. Three instruments, the Multifactor Emotional Intelligence Scale (Mayer, Caruso, & Salovey, 1999), the Science Teaching Efficacy Beliefs Instrument (Riggs & Enochs, 1990), and a demographics questionnaire were utilized to collect the data. An independent-measures t test, the Pearson r, and the one-way MANOVA were used to analyze the data. A Significant positive relationship was found between "emotional intelligence" and "teacher self-efficacy." Data analyses, however, failed to support hypothesized relationships between "emotional intelligence" and "length of teaching experience," and between "emotional intelligence" and "age". Additionally, statistical analyses of the data collected for this study supported predicted statistically significant differences in "emotional intelligence" between male and female teachers, and among the three race/ethnicity groupings. Based on these findings, recommendations for the application of the construct of "emotional intelligence" in Texas public schools are discussed.

Resampling-Based Empirical Bayes Multiple Testing Procedures for Controlling Generalized Tail Probability and Expected Value Error Rates: Focus on the False Discovery Rate and Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Dudoit, Sandrine; Gilbert, Houston N.; van der Laan, Mark J.

2014-01-01

Summary This article proposes resampling-based empirical Bayes multiple testing procedures for controlling a broad class of Type I error rates, defined as generalized tail probability (gTP) error rates, gTP(q, g) = Pr(g(Vn, Sn) > q), and generalized expected value (gEV) error rates, gEV(g) = E[g(Vn, Sn)], for arbitrary functions g(Vn, Sn) of the numbers of false positives Vn and true positives Sn. Of particular interest are error rates based on the proportion g(Vn, Sn) = Vn/(Vn + Sn) of Type I errors among the rejected hypotheses, such as the false discovery rate (FDR), FDR = E[Vn/(Vn + Sn)]. The proposed procedures offer several advantages over existing methods. They provide Type I error control for general data generating distributions, with arbitrary dependence structures among variables. Gains in power are achieved by deriving rejection regions based on guessed sets of true null hypotheses and null test statistics randomly sampled from joint distributions that account for the dependence structure of the data. The Type I error and power properties of an FDR-controlling version of the resampling-based empirical Bayes approach are investigated and compared to those of widely-used FDR-controlling linear step-up procedures in a simulation study. The Type I error and power trade-off achieved by the empirical Bayes procedures under a variety of testing scenarios allows this approach to be competitive with or outperform the Storey and Tibshirani (2003) linear step-up procedure, as an alternative to the classical Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) procedure. PMID:18932138

Hypothesis testing clarifies the systematics of the main Central American Chagas disease vector, Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811), across its geographic range.

PubMed

Dorn, Patricia L; de la Rúa, Nicholas M; Axen, Heather; Smith, Nicholas; Richards, Bethany R; Charabati, Jirias; Suarez, Julianne; Woods, Adrienne; Pessoa, Rafaela; Monroy, Carlota; Kilpatrick, C William; Stevens, Lori

2016-10-01

The widespread and diverse Triatoma dimidiata is the kissing bug species most important for Chagas disease transmission in Central America and a secondary vector in Mexico and northern South America. Its diversity may contribute to different Chagas disease prevalence in different localities and has led to conflicting systematic hypotheses describing various populations as subspecies or cryptic species. To resolve these conflicting hypotheses, we sequenced a nuclear (internal transcribed spacer 2, ITS-2) and mitochondrial gene (cytochrome b) from an extensive sampling of T. dimidiata across its geographic range. We evaluated the congruence of ITS-2 and cyt b phylogenies and tested the support for the previously proposed subspecies (inferred from ITS-2) by: (1) overlaying the ITS-2 subspecies assignments on a cyt b tree and, (2) assessing the statistical support for a cyt b topology constrained by the subspecies hypothesis. Unconstrained phylogenies inferred from ITS-2 and cyt b are congruent and reveal three clades including two putative cryptic species in addition to T. dimidiata sensu stricto. Neither the cyt b phylogeny nor hypothesis testing support the proposed subspecies inferred from ITS-2. Additionally, the two cryptic species are supported by phylogenies inferred from mitochondrially-encoded genes cytochrome c oxidase I and NADH dehydrogenase 4. In summary, our results reveal two cryptic species. Phylogenetic relationships indicate T. dimidiata sensu stricto is not subdivided into monophyletic clades consistent with subspecies. Based on increased support by hypothesis testing, we propose an updated systematic hypothesis for T. dimidiata based on extensive taxon sampling and analysis of both mitochondrial and nuclear genes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring fit of sequence data to phylogenetic model: gain of power using marginal tests.

PubMed

Waddell, Peter J; Ota, Rissa; Penny, David

2009-10-01

Testing fit of data to model is fundamentally important to any science, but publications in the field of phylogenetics rarely do this. Such analyses discard fundamental aspects of science as prescribed by Karl Popper. Indeed, not without cause, Popper (Unended quest: an intellectual autobiography. Fontana, London, 1976) once argued that evolutionary biology was unscientific as its hypotheses were untestable. Here we trace developments in assessing fit from Penny et al. (Nature 297:197-200, 1982) to the present. We compare the general log-likelihood ratio (the G or G (2) statistic) statistic between the evolutionary tree model and the multinomial model with that of marginalized tests applied to an alignment (using placental mammal coding sequence data). It is seen that the most general test does not reject the fit of data to model (P approximately 0.5), but the marginalized tests do. Tests on pairwise frequency (F) matrices, strongly (P < 0.001) reject the most general phylogenetic (GTR) models commonly in use. It is also clear (P < 0.01) that the sequences are not stationary in their nucleotide composition. Deviations from stationarity and homogeneity seem to be unevenly distributed amongst taxa; not necessarily those expected from examining other regions of the genome. By marginalizing the 4( t ) patterns of the i.i.d. model to observed and expected parsimony counts, that is, from constant sites, to singletons, to parsimony informative characters of a minimum possible length, then the likelihood ratio test regains power, and it too rejects the evolutionary model with P < 0.001. Given such behavior over relatively recent evolutionary time, readers in general should maintain a healthy skepticism of results, as the scale of the systematic errors in published trees may really be far larger than the analytical methods (e.g., bootstrap) report.

Molecular engineering and measurements to test hypothesized mechanisms in single molecule conductance switching.

PubMed

Moore, Amanda M; Dameron, Arrelaine A; Mantooth, Brent A; Smith, Rachel K; Fuchs, Daniel J; Ciszek, Jacob W; Maya, Francisco; Yao, Yuxing; Tour, James M; Weiss, Paul S

2006-02-15

Six customized phenylene-ethynylene-based oligomers have been studied for their electronic properties using scanning tunneling microscopy to test hypothesized mechanisms of stochastic conductance switching. Previously suggested mechanisms include functional group reduction, functional group rotation, backbone ring rotation, neighboring molecule interactions, bond fluctuations, and hybridization changes. Here, we test these hypotheses experimentally by varying the molecular designs of the switches; the ability of the molecules to switch via each hypothetical mechanism is selectively engineered into or out of each molecule. We conclude that hybridization changes at the molecule-surface interface are responsible for the switching we observe.

Randomized trials are frequently fragmented in multiple secondary publications.

PubMed

Ebrahim, Shanil; Montoya, Luis; Kamal El Din, Mostafa; Sohani, Zahra N; Agarwal, Arnav; Bance, Sheena; Saquib, Juliann; Saquib, Nazmus; Ioannidis, John P A

2016-11-01

To assess the frequency and features of secondary publications of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). For 191 RCTs published in high-impact journals in 2009, we searched for secondary publications coauthored by at least one same author of the primary trial publication. We evaluated the probability of having secondary publications, characteristics of the primary trial publication that predict having secondary publications, types of secondary analyses conducted, and statistical significance of those analyses. Of 191 primary trials, 88 (46%) had a total of 475 secondary publications by 2/2014. Eight trials had >10 (up to 51) secondary publications each. In multivariable modeling, the risk of having subsequent secondary publications increased 1.32-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.68) per 10-fold increase in sample size, and 1.71-fold (95% CI 1.19-2.45) in the presence of a design article. In a sample of 197 secondary publications examined in depth, 193 tested different hypotheses than the primary publication. Of the 193, 43 tested differences between subgroups, 85 assessed predictive factors associated with an outcome of interest, 118 evaluated different outcomes than the original article, 71 had differences in eligibility criteria, and 21 assessed different durations of follow-up; 176 (91%) presented at least one analysis with statistically significant results. Approximately half of randomized trials in high-impact journals have secondary publications published with a few trials followed by numerous secondary publications. Almost all of these publications report some statistically significant results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MIDAS: Regionally linear multivariate discriminative statistical mapping.

PubMed

Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Davatzikos, Christos

2018-07-01

Statistical parametric maps formed via voxel-wise mass-univariate tests, such as the general linear model, are commonly used to test hypotheses about regionally specific effects in neuroimaging cross-sectional studies where each subject is represented by a single image. Despite being informative, these techniques remain limited as they ignore multivariate relationships in the data. Most importantly, the commonly employed local Gaussian smoothing, which is important for accounting for registration errors and making the data follow Gaussian distributions, is usually chosen in an ad hoc fashion. Thus, it is often suboptimal for the task of detecting group differences and correlations with non-imaging variables. Information mapping techniques, such as searchlight, which use pattern classifiers to exploit multivariate information and obtain more powerful statistical maps, have become increasingly popular in recent years. However, existing methods may lead to important interpretation errors in practice (i.e., misidentifying a cluster as informative, or failing to detect truly informative voxels), while often being computationally expensive. To address these issues, we introduce a novel efficient multivariate statistical framework for cross-sectional studies, termed MIDAS, seeking highly sensitive and specific voxel-wise brain maps, while leveraging the power of regional discriminant analysis. In MIDAS, locally linear discriminative learning is applied to estimate the pattern that best discriminates between two groups, or predicts a variable of interest. This pattern is equivalent to local filtering by an optimal kernel whose coefficients are the weights of the linear discriminant. By composing information from all neighborhoods that contain a given voxel, MIDAS produces a statistic that collectively reflects the contribution of the voxel to the regional classifiers as well as the discriminative power of the classifiers. Critically, MIDAS efficiently assesses the statistical significance of the derived statistic by analytically approximating its null distribution without the need for computationally expensive permutation tests. The proposed framework was extensively validated using simulated atrophy in structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and further tested using data from a task-based functional MRI study as well as a structural MRI study of cognitive performance. The performance of the proposed framework was evaluated against standard voxel-wise general linear models and other information mapping methods. The experimental results showed that MIDAS achieves relatively higher sensitivity and specificity in detecting group differences. Together, our results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach to efficiently map effects of interest in both structural and functional data. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: the multiple problems of multiplicity-whether and how to correct for many statistical tests.

PubMed

Streiner, David L

2015-10-01

Testing many null hypotheses in a single study results in an increased probability of detecting a significant finding just by chance (the problem of multiplicity). Debates have raged over many years with regard to whether to correct for multiplicity and, if so, how it should be done. This article first discusses how multiple tests lead to an inflation of the α level, then explores the following different contexts in which multiplicity arises: testing for baseline differences in various types of studies, having >1 outcome variable, conducting statistical tests that produce >1 P value, taking multiple "peeks" at the data, and unplanned, post hoc analyses (i.e., "data dredging," "fishing expeditions," or "P-hacking"). It then discusses some of the methods that have been proposed for correcting for multiplicity, including single-step procedures (e.g., Bonferroni); multistep procedures, such as those of Holm, Hochberg, and Šidák; false discovery rate control; and resampling approaches. Note that these various approaches describe different aspects and are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For example, resampling methods could be used to control the false discovery rate or the family-wise error rate (as defined later in this article). However, the use of one of these approaches presupposes that we should correct for multiplicity, which is not universally accepted, and the article presents the arguments for and against such "correction." The final section brings together these threads and presents suggestions with regard to when it makes sense to apply the corrections and how to do so. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Examination of Substance Use, Risk Factors, and Protective Factors on Student Academic Test Score Performance.

PubMed

Arthur, Michael W; Brown, Eric C; Briney, John S; Hawkins, J David; Abbott, Robert D; Catalano, Richard F; Becker, Linda; Langer, Michael; Mueller, Martin T

2015-08-01

School administrators and teachers face difficult decisions about how best to use school resources to meet academic achievement goals. Many are hesitant to adopt prevention curricula that are not focused directly on academic achievement. Yet, some have hypothesized that prevention curricula can remove barriers to learning and, thus, promote achievement. We examined relationships among school levels of student substance use and risk and protective factors that predict adolescent problem behaviors and achievement test performance. Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to predict associations involving school-averaged levels of substance use and risk and protective factors and students' likelihood of meeting achievement test standards on the Washington Assessment of Student Learning, statistically controlling for demographic and economic factors known to be associated with achievement. Levels of substance use and risk/protective factors predicted the academic test score performance of students. Many of these effects remained significant even after controlling for model covariates. Implementing prevention programs that target empirically identified risk and protective factors has the potential to have a favorable effect on students' academic achievement. © 2015, American School Health Association.

Access to health care and religion among young American men.

PubMed

Gillum, R Frank; Jarrett, Nicole; Obisesan, Thomas O

2009-12-01

In order to elucidate cultural correlates of utilization of primary health services by young adult men, we investigated religion in which one was raised and service utilization. Using data from a national survey we tested the hypothesis that religion raised predicts access to and utilization of a regular medical care provider, examinations, HIV and other STD testing and counseling at ages 18-44 years in men born between 1958 and 1984. We also hypothesized that religion raised would be more predictive of utilization for Hispanic Americans and non-Hispanic Black Americans than for non-Hispanic White Americans. The study included a national sample of 4276 men aged 18-44 years. Descriptive and multivariate statistics were used to assess the hypotheses using data on religion raised and responses to 14 items assessing health care access and utilization. Compared to those raised in no religion, those raised mainline Protestant were more likely (p < 0.01) to report a usual source of care (67% vs. 79%), health insurance coverage (66% vs. 80%) and physical examination (43% vs. 48%). Religion raised was not associated with testicular exams, STD counseling or HIV testing. In multivariate analyses controlling for confounders, significant associations of religion raised with insurance coverage, a physician as usual source of care and physical examination remained which varied by race/ethnicity. In conclusion, although religion is a core aspect of culture that deserves further study as a possible determinant of health care utilization, we were not able to document any consistent pattern of significant association even in a population with high rates of religious participation.

Access to Health Care and Religion among Young American Men

PubMed Central

Gillum, R. Frank; Jarrett, Nicole; Obisesan, Thomas O.

2009-01-01

In order to elucidate cultural correlates of utilization of primary health services by young adult men, we investigated religion in which one was raised and service utilization. Using data from a national survey we tested the hypothesis that religion raised predicts access to and utilization of a regular medical care provider, examinations, HIV and other STD testing and counseling at ages 18–44 years in men born between 1958 and 1984. We also hypothesized that religion raised would be more predictive of utilization for Hispanic Americans and non-Hispanic Black Americans than for non-Hispanic White Americans. The study included a national sample of 4276 men aged 18–44 years. Descriptive and multivariate statistics were used to assess the hypotheses using data on religion raised and responses to 14 items assessing health care access and utilization. Compared to those raised in no religion, those raised mainline Protestant were more likely (p < 0.01) to report a usual source of care (67% vs. 79%), health insurance coverage (66% vs. 80%) and physical examination (43% vs. 48%). Religion raised was not associated with testicular exams, STD counseling or HIV testing. In multivariate analyses controlling for confounders, significant associations of religion raised with insurance coverage, a physician as usual source of care and physical examination remained which varied by race/ethnicity. In conclusion, although religion is a core aspect of culture that deserves further study as a possible determinant of health care utilization, we were not able to document any consistent pattern of significant association even in a population with high rates of religious participation. PMID:20049258

Human Birth Weight and Reproductive Immunology: Testing for Interactions between Maternal and Offspring KIR and HLA-C Genes.

PubMed

Clark, Michelle M; Chazara, Olympe; Sobel, Eric M; Gjessing, Håkon K; Magnus, Per; Moffett, Ashley; Sinsheimer, Janet S

2016-01-01

Maternal and offspring cell contact at the site of placentation presents a plausible setting for maternal-fetal genotype (MFG) interactions affecting fetal growth. We test hypotheses regarding killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) and HLA-C MFG effects on human birth weight by extending the quantitative MFG (QMFG) test. Until recently, association testing for MFG interactions had limited applications. To improve the ability to test for these interactions, we developed the extended QMFG test, a linear mixed-effect model that can use multi-locus genotype data from families. We demonstrate the extended QMFG test's statistical properties. We also show that if an offspring-only model is fit when MFG effects exist, associations can be missed or misattributed. Furthermore, imprecisely modeling the effects of both KIR and HLA-C could result in a failure to replicate if these loci's allele frequencies differ among populations. To further illustrate the extended QMFG test's advantages, we apply the extended QMFG test to a UK cohort study and the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa) study. We find a significant KIR-HLA-C interaction effect on birth weight. More generally, the QMFG test can detect genetic associations that may be missed by standard genome-wide association studies for quantitative traits. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.

PubMed

Massatti, Rob; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-08-01

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of partial knowledge in statistical word learning

PubMed Central

Fricker, Damian C.; Yu, Chen; Smith, Linda B.

2013-01-01

A critical question about the nature of human learning is whether it is an all-or-none or a gradual, accumulative process. Associative and statistical theories of word learning rely critically on the later assumption: that the process of learning a word's meaning unfolds over time. That is, learning the correct referent for a word involves the accumulation of partial knowledge across multiple instances. Some theories also make an even stronger claim: Partial knowledge of one word–object mapping can speed up the acquisition of other word–object mappings. We present three experiments that test and verify these claims by exposing learners to two consecutive blocks of cross-situational learning, in which half of the words and objects in the second block were those that participants failed to learn in Block 1. In line with an accumulative account, Re-exposure to these mis-mapped items accelerated the acquisition of both previously experienced mappings and wholly new word–object mappings. But how does partial knowledge of some words speed the acquisition of others? We consider two hypotheses. First, partial knowledge of a word could reduce the amount of information required for it to reach threshold, and the supra-threshold mapping could subsequently aid in the acquisition of new mappings. Alternatively, partial knowledge of a word's meaning could be useful for disambiguating the meanings of other words even before the threshold of learning is reached. We construct and compare computational models embodying each of these hypotheses and show that the latter provides a better explanation of the empirical data. PMID:23702980

Comparison of dissection with harmonic scalpel and conventional bipolar electrocautery in deep inferior epigastric perforator flap surgery: A consecutive cohort study.

PubMed

Lee, Yoon Jae; Kim, Hak Young; Han, Hyun Ho; Moon, Suk-Ho; Byeon, Jun Hee; Rhie, Jong Won; Ahn, Sang Tae; Oh, Deuk Young

2017-02-01

Reduced tissue damage is a theoretical advantage of using an ultrasonic harmonic scalpel. We hypothesized that the harmonic scalpel would outperform electrocautery in deep inferior epigastric perforator flap surgery, possibly resulting in a shorter operative time and reduced postoperative drainage and pain. Between January and August 2015, 24 consecutive patients were assigned to immediate deep inferior epigastric perforator flap elevation (12 for bipolar electrocautery and 12 for harmonic scalpel). The main outcome variables were total operative time, flap elevation time (starting from the fascia incision), and drainage volume. We compared the number of perforators isolated and the Moon and Taylor classification of the pedicle. Data were tested for normality using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test before analysis. Continuous variables were compared by Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Data were analyzed using the statistical software SAS, version 9.3 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Both groups were comparable with respect to clinical characteristics (mean age, body mass index, and flap weights). There was a statistically significant difference in the operative time between dissection with the harmonic scalpel and electrocautery (305.2 vs. 380.3 min, respectively, p = 0.002). The flap elevation time was reduced, particularly when using the harmonic scalpel where its usage seems crucial for dissecting deep inferior epigastric perforators (59.8 vs. 145.9 min, respectively, p < 0.0001). No statistical difference was observed in the drainage volume and length of hospital stay between the groups. We conclude that the harmonic scalpel may be more reliable and efficient as an alternative to electrocautery. Copyright © 2016 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the math/science career goals of low-income prospective first-generation college students.

PubMed

Garriott, Patton O; Flores, Lisa Y; Martens, Matthew P

2013-04-01

The present study used social cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) to predict the math/science goal intentions of a sample of low-income prospective first-generation college students (N = 305). Structural equation modeling was used to test a model depicting relationships between contextual (i.e., social class, learning experiences, proximal supports and barriers) and person-cognitive (i.e., self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, goals) variables as hypothesized in SCCT and based on previous literature on low-income first-generation college students. Results indicated that the hypothesized model provided the best representation of the data. All paths in the model were statistically significant, with the exceptions of paths from self-efficacy to goals, outcome expectations to interests, and perceived barriers to self-efficacy. Bootstrapping procedures revealed that the relationships between social class, self-efficacy, and outcome expectations were mediated through learning experiences. Furthermore, the relationship between social supports and goals was mediated by self-efficacy and interests and the relationships between self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals were mediated by interests. Contrary to hypotheses, the relationship between barriers and goals was not mediated by self-efficacy and interests. The hypothesis that proximal contextual supports and barriers would moderate the relationship between interests and goals was not supported. The final model explained 66% and 55% of the variance in math/science interests and goals, respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

Performance map of a cluster detection test using extended power

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Conventional power studies possess limited ability to assess the performance of cluster detection tests. In particular, they cannot evaluate the accuracy of the cluster location, which is essential in such assessments. Furthermore, they usually estimate power for one or a few particular alternative hypotheses and thus cannot assess performance over an entire region. Takahashi and Tango developed the concept of extended power that indicates both the rate of null hypothesis rejection and the accuracy of the cluster location. We propose a systematic assessment method, using here extended power, to produce a map showing the performance of cluster detection tests over an entire region. Methods To explore the behavior of a cluster detection test on identical cluster types at any possible location, we successively applied four different spatial and epidemiological parameters. These parameters determined four cluster collections, each covering the entire study region. We simulated 1,000 datasets for each cluster and analyzed them with Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic. From the area under the extended power curve, we constructed a map for each parameter set showing the performance of the test across the entire region. Results Consistent with previous studies, the performance of the spatial scan statistic increased with the baseline incidence of disease, the size of the at-risk population and the strength of the cluster (i.e., the relative risk). Performance was heterogeneous, however, even for very similar clusters (i.e., similar with respect to the aforementioned factors), suggesting the influence of other factors. Conclusions The area under the extended power curve is a single measure of performance and, although needing further exploration, it is suitable to conduct a systematic spatial evaluation of performance. The performance map we propose enables epidemiologists to assess cluster detection tests across an entire study region. PMID:24156765

Tacit knowledge: A refinement and empirical test of the Academic Tacit Knowledge Scale.

PubMed

Insch, Gary S; McIntyre, Nancy; Dawley, David

2008-11-01

Researchers have linked tacit knowledge to improved organizational performance, but research on how to measure tacit knowledge is scarce. In the present study, the authors proposed and empirically tested a model of tacit knowledge and an accompanying measurement scale of academic tacit knowledge. They present 6 hypotheses that support the proposed tacit knowledge model regarding the role of cognitive (self-motivation, self-organization); technical (individual task, institutional task); and social (task-related, general) skills. The authors tested these hypotheses with 542 responses to the Academic Tacit Knowledge Scale, which included the respondents' grade point average-the performance variable. All 6 hypotheses were supported.

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-08-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

Experiential avoidance as an emotion regulatory function: an empirical analysis of experiential avoidance in relation to behavioral avoidance, cognitive reappraisal, and response suppression.

PubMed

Wolgast, Martin; Lundh, Lars-Gunnar; Viborg, Gardar

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to empirically test the suggestion that experiential avoidance in an emotion regulation context is best understood as an emotion regulatory function of topographically distinct strategies. To do this we examined whether a measure of experiential avoidance could statistically account for the effects of emotion regulation strategies intervening at different points of the emotion-generative process as conceptualized by Gross' (1998) process model of emotion regulation. The strategies under examination were behavioral avoidance, cognitive reappraisal, and response suppression. The specific hypotheses to be tested were (1) that behavioral avoidance, cognitive reappraisal, and response suppression would statistically mediate the differences in measures of psychological well-being between a clinical and nonclinical sample, but that (2) these indirect effects would be reduced to nonsignificant levels when controlling for differences in experiential avoidance. The results provide clear support for the first hypothesis with regard to all the studied strategies. In contrast to the second hypothesis, the results showed the predicted outcome pattern only for the response-focused strategy "response suppression" and not for cognitive reappraisal or behavioral avoidance. The results are interpreted and discussed in relation to theories on experiential avoidance and emotion regulation.

How Quickly Do They React?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ortolano, Girolamo; Finn, Julia; Ortolano, Leonard

2017-01-01

In this activity, students learned scientific practices and evidence-based reasoning by formulating and testing hypotheses about factors affecting human reaction time and examining those hypotheses with data from ruler-drop tests. The project aligns with all eight of the science and engineering practices (SEP) embodied in the "Next Generation…

Beneficial aerodynamic effect of wing scales on the climbing flight of butterflies.

PubMed

Slegers, Nathan; Heilman, Michael; Cranford, Jacob; Lang, Amy; Yoder, John; Habegger, Maria Laura

2017-01-30

It is hypothesized that butterfly wing scale geometry and surface patterning may function to improve aerodynamic efficiency. In order to investigate this hypothesis, a method to measure butterfly flapping kinematics optically over long uninhibited flapping sequences was developed. Statistical results for the climbing flight flapping kinematics of 11 butterflies, based on a total of 236 individual flights, both with and without their wing scales, are presented. Results show, that for each of the 11 butterflies, the mean climbing efficiency decreased after scales were removed. Data was reduced to a single set of differences of climbing efficiency using are paired t-test. Results show a mean decrease in climbing efficiency of 32.2% occurred with a 95% confidence interval of 45.6%-18.8%. Similar analysis showed that the flapping amplitude decreased by 7% while the flapping frequency did not show a significant difference. Results provide strong evidence that butterfly wing scale geometry and surface patterning improve butterfly climbing efficiency. The authors hypothesize that the wing scale's effect in measured climbing efficiency may be due to an improved aerodynamic efficiency of the butterfly and could similarly be used on flapping wing micro air vehicles to potentially achieve similar gains in efficiency.

Investigating niche partitioning of ectomycorrhizal fungi in specialized rooting zones of the monodominant leguminous tree Dicymbe corymbosa.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew E; Henkel, Terry W; Williams, Gwendolyn C; Aime, M Catherine; Fremier, Alexander K; Vilgalys, Rytas

2017-07-01

Temperate ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi show segregation whereby some species dominate in organic layers and others favor mineral soils. Weak layering in tropical soils is hypothesized to decrease niche space and therefore reduce the diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi. The Neotropical ECM tree Dicymbe corymbosa forms monodominant stands and has a distinct physiognomy with vertical crown development, adventitious roots and massive root mounds, leading to multi-stemmed trees with spatially segregated rooting environments: aerial litter caches, aerial decayed wood, organic root mounds and mineral soil. We hypothesized that these microhabitats host distinct fungal assemblages and therefore promote diversity. To test our hypothesis, we sampled D. corymbosa ectomycorrhizal root tips from the four microhabitats and analyzed community composition based on pyrosequencing of fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) barcode markers. Several dominant fungi were ubiquitous but analyses nonetheless suggested that communities in mineral soil samples were statistically distinct from communities in organic microhabitats. These data indicate that distinctive rooting zones of D. corymbosa contribute to spatial segregation of the fungal community and likely enhance fungal diversity. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Contrasting phylogeographic patterns in Sphagnum fimbriatum and Sphagnum squarrosum (Bryophyta, Sphagnopsida) in Europe.

PubMed

Szövényi, Péter; Hock, Zsófia; Urmi, Edwin; Schneller, Jakob J

2006-01-01

The chloroplast phylogeography of two peat mosses (Sphagnum fimbriatum and Sphagnum squarrosum) with similar distributions but different life history characteristics was investigated in Europe. Our main aim was to test whether similar distributions reflect similar phylogeographic and phylodemographic processes. Accessions covering the European distributions of the species were collected and approx. 2000 bp of the chloroplast genome of each species was sequenced. Maximum parsimony, statistical parsimony and phylodemographic analyses were used to address the question of whether these species with similar distributions show evidence of similar phylogeographic and phylodemographic processes. The chloroplast haplotypes of the currently spreading species S. fimbriatum showed strong geographic structure, whereas those of S. squarrosum, which has stable historical population sizes, showed only very weak geographic affinity and were widely distributed. We hypothesize that S. fimbriatum survived the last glaciations along the Atlantic coast of Europe, whereas S. squarrosum had numerous, scattered refugia in Europe. The dominance of one haplotype of S. fimbriatum across almost all of Europe suggests rapid colonization after the last glacial maximum. We hypothesize that high colonizing ability is an inherent characteristic of the species and its recent expansion in Europe is a response to climate change.

Inferring 'weak spots' in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature.

PubMed

Madzia, Daniel; Cau, Andrea

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the 'weak spots' in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the 'traditionally' recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support.

Development of the biology card sorting task to measure conceptual expertise in biology.

PubMed

Smith, Julia I; Combs, Elijah D; Nagami, Paul H; Alto, Valerie M; Goh, Henry G; Gourdet, Muryam A A; Hough, Christina M; Nickell, Ashley E; Peer, Adrian G; Coley, John D; Tanner, Kimberly D

2013-01-01

There are widespread aspirations to focus undergraduate biology education on teaching students to think conceptually like biologists; however, there is a dearth of assessment tools designed to measure progress from novice to expert biological conceptual thinking. We present the development of a novel assessment tool, the Biology Card Sorting Task, designed to probe how individuals organize their conceptual knowledge of biology. While modeled on tasks from cognitive psychology, this task is unique in its design to test two hypothesized conceptual frameworks for the organization of biological knowledge: 1) a surface feature organization focused on organism type and 2) a deep feature organization focused on fundamental biological concepts. In this initial investigation of the Biology Card Sorting Task, each of six analytical measures showed statistically significant differences when used to compare the card sorting results of putative biological experts (biology faculty) and novices (non-biology major undergraduates). Consistently, biology faculty appeared to sort based on hypothesized deep features, while non-biology majors appeared to sort based on either surface features or nonhypothesized organizational frameworks. Results suggest that this novel task is robust in distinguishing populations of biology experts and biology novices and may be an adaptable tool for tracking emerging biology conceptual expertise.

Inferring ‘weak spots’ in phylogenetic trees: application to mosasauroid nomenclature

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mosasauroid squamates represented the apex predators within the Late Cretaceous marine and occasionally also freshwater ecosystems. Proper understanding of the origin of their ecological adaptations or paleobiogeographic dispersals requires adequate knowledge of their phylogeny. The studies assessing the position of mosasauroids on the squamate evolutionary tree and their origins have long given conflicting results. The phylogenetic relationships within Mosasauroidea, however, have experienced only little changes throughout the last decades. Considering the substantial improvements in the development of phylogenetic methodology that have undergone in recent years, resulting, among others, in numerous alterations in the phylogenetic hypotheses of other fossil amniotes, we test the robustness in our understanding of mosasauroid beginnings and their evolutionary history. We re-examined a data set that results from modifications assembled in the course of the last 20 years and performed multiple parsimony analyses and Bayesian tip-dating analysis. Following the inferred topologies and the ‘weak spots’ in the phylogeny of mosasauroids, we revise the nomenclature of the ‘traditionally’ recognized mosasauroid clades, to acknowledge the overall weakness among branches and the alternative topologies suggested previously, and discuss several factors that might have an impact on the differing phylogenetic hypotheses and their statistical support. PMID:28929018

Automatic Bayes Factors for Testing Equality- and Inequality-Constrained Hypotheses on Variances.

PubMed

Böing-Messing, Florian; Mulder, Joris

2018-05-03

In comparing characteristics of independent populations, researchers frequently expect a certain structure of the population variances. These expectations can be formulated as hypotheses with equality and/or inequality constraints on the variances. In this article, we consider the Bayes factor for testing such (in)equality-constrained hypotheses on variances. Application of Bayes factors requires specification of a prior under every hypothesis to be tested. However, specifying subjective priors for variances based on prior information is a difficult task. We therefore consider so-called automatic or default Bayes factors. These methods avoid the need for the user to specify priors by using information from the sample data. We present three automatic Bayes factors for testing variances. The first is a Bayes factor with equal priors on all variances, where the priors are specified automatically using a small share of the information in the sample data. The second is the fractional Bayes factor, where a fraction of the likelihood is used for automatic prior specification. The third is an adjustment of the fractional Bayes factor such that the parsimony of inequality-constrained hypotheses is properly taken into account. The Bayes factors are evaluated by investigating different properties such as information consistency and large sample consistency. Based on this evaluation, it is concluded that the adjusted fractional Bayes factor is generally recommendable for testing equality- and inequality-constrained hypotheses on variances.

Statistical studies of selected trace elements with reference to geology and genesis of the Carlin gold deposit, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Michael; Radtke, Arthur S.

1976-01-01

Linear regression and discriminant analyses techniques were applied to gold, mercury, arsenic, antimony, barium, copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, boron, tellurium, selenium, and tungsten analyses from drill holes into unoxidized gold ore at the Carlin gold mine near Carlin, Nev. The statistical treatments employed were used to judge proposed hypotheses on the origin and geochemical paragenesis of this disseminated gold deposit.

Testing Specific Hypotheses Concerning Latent Group Differences in Multi-group Covariance Structure Analysis with Structured Means.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

In multigroup covariance structure analysis with structured means, the traditional latent selection model is formulated as a special case of phenotypic selection. Illustrations with real and simulated data demonstrate how one can test specific hypotheses concerning selection on latent variables. (SLD)

Interactions between domestic and export markets for softwood lumber and plywood: tests of six hypotheses.

Treesearch

David R. Darr

1981-01-01

Price formation in export markets and available data on export and domestic markets are discussed. The results of tests of several hypotheses about interactions between domestic and export markets are presented and interpreted from the standpoints of trade promotion and trade policy.

Testing for variation in taxonomic extinction probabilities: a suggested methodology and some results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Nichols, J.D.

1984-01-01

Several important questions in evolutionary biology and paleobiology involve sources of variation in extinction rates. In all cases of which we are aware, extinction rates have been estimated from data in which the probability that an observation (e.g., a fossil taxon) will occur is related both to extinction rates and to what we term encounter probabilities. Any statistical method for analyzing fossil data should at a minimum permit separate inferences on these two components. We develop a method for estimating taxonomic extinction rates from stratigraphic range data and for testing hypotheses about variability in these rates. We use this method to estimate extinction rates and to test the hypothesis of constant extinction rates for several sets of stratigraphic range data. The results of our tests support the hypothesis that extinction rates varied over the geologic time periods examined. We also present a test that can be used to identify periods of high or low extinction probabilities and provide an example using Phanerozoic invertebrate data. Extinction rates should be analyzed using stochastic models, in which it is recognized that stratigraphic samples are random varlates and that sampling is imperfect

Right frontal pole cortical thickness and executive functioning in children with traumatic brain injury: the impact on social problems.

PubMed

Levan, Ashley; Black, Garrett; Mietchen, Jonathan; Baxter, Leslie; Brock Kirwan, C; Gale, Shawn D

2016-12-01

Cognitive and social outcomes may be negatively affected in children with a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI). We hypothesized that executive function would mediate the association between right frontal pole cortical thickness and problematic social behaviors. Child participants with a history of TBI were recruited from inpatient admissions for long-term follow-up (n = 23; average age = 12.8, average time post-injury =3.2 years). Three measures of executive function, the Trail Making Test, verbal fluency test, and the Conners' Continuous Performance Test-Second edition (CPT-II), were administered to each participant while caregivers completed the Childhood Behavior Checklist (CBCL). All participants underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging following cognitive testing. Regression analysis demonstrated right frontal pole cortical thickness significantly predicted social problems. Measures of executive functioning also significantly predicted social problems; however, the mediation model testing whether executive function mediated the relationship between cortical thickness and social problems was not statistically significant. Right frontal pole cortical thickness and omission errors on the CPT-II predicted Social Problems on the CBCL. Results did not indicate that the association between cortical thickness and social problems was mediated by executive function.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data.

PubMed

Palero, Ferran; Lopes, Joao; Abelló, Pere; Macpherson, Enrique; Pascual, Marta; Beaumont, Mark A

2009-11-09

Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Why are we not evaluating multiple competing hypotheses in ecology and evolution?

PubMed Central

Avgar, Tal; Fryxell, John M.

2017-01-01

The use of multiple working hypotheses to gain strong inference is widely promoted as a means to enhance the effectiveness of scientific investigation. Only 21 of 100 randomly selected studies from the ecological and evolutionary literature tested more than one hypothesis and only eight tested more than two hypotheses. The surprising rarity of application of multiple working hypotheses suggests that this gap between theory and practice might reflect some fundamental issues. Here, we identify several intellectual and practical barriers that discourage us from using multiple hypotheses in our scientific investigation. While scientists have developed a number of ways to avoid biases, such as the use of double-blind controls, we suspect that few scientists are fully aware of the potential influence of cognitive bias on their decisions and they have not yet adopted many techniques available to overcome intellectual and practical barriers in order to improve scientific investigation. PMID:28280578

Hydrogeologic characterization of an arid zone Radioactive Waste Management Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ginanni, J.M.; O`Neill, L.J.; Hammermeister, D.P.

1994-06-01

An in-depth subsurface site characterization and monitoring program for the soil water migration pathway has been planned, implemented, and completed to satisfy data requirements for a waiver from groundwater monitoring, for an exemption from liner leachate collections systems, and for different regulatory driven performance assessments. A traditional scientific approach has been taken to focus characterization and monitoring efforts. This involved developing a conceptual model of the hydrogeologic system and defining and testing hypotheses about this model. Specific hypotheses tested included: that the system was hydrologically heterogenous and anisotropic, and that recharge was very low or negligible. Mineralogical, physical, and hydrologicmore » data collected to test hypotheses has shown the hydrologic system to be remarkably homogenous and isotropic rather than heterogenous and anisotropic. Both hydrodynamic and environmental tracer approaches for estimating recharge have led to the conclusion that recharge from the Area 5 RWMS is not occurring in the upper region of the vadose zone, and that recharge at depth is extremely small or negligible. This demonstration of ``no migration of hazardous constituents to the water table satisfies a key requirement for both the groundwater monitoring waiver and the exemption from liner leachate collection systems. Data obtained from testing hypotheses concerning the soil water migration pathway have been used to refine the conceptual model of the hydrogeologic system of the site. These data suggest that the soil gas and atmospheric air pathways may be more important for transporting contaminants to the accessible environment than the soil water pathway. New hypotheses have been developed about these pathways, and characterization and monitoring activities designed to collect data to test these hypotheses.« less

A multilocus evaluation of ermine (Mustela erminea) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Natalie G.; Hope, Andrew G.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Cook, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Psychometrics of chronic liver disease questionnaire in Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients.

PubMed

Zhou, Kai-Na; Zhang, Min; Wu, Qian; Ji, Zhen-Hao; Zhang, Xiao-Mei; Zhuang, Gui-Hua

2013-06-14

To evaluate psychometrics of the Chinese (mainland) chronic liver disease questionnaire (CLDQ) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). A cross-sectional sample of 460 Chinese patients with CHB was selected from the Outpatient Department of the Eighth Hospital of Xi'an, including CHB (CHB without cirrhosis) (n = 323) and CHB-related cirrhosis (n = 137). The psychometrics includes reliability, validity and sensitivity. Internal consistency reliability was measured using Cronbach's α. Convergent and discriminant validity was evaluated by item-scale correlation. Factorial validity was explored by principal component analysis with varimax rotation. Sensitivity was assessed using Cohen's effect size (ES), and independent sample t test between CHB and CHB-related cirrhosis groups and between alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normal and abnormal groups after stratifying the disease (CHB and CHB-related cirrhosis). Internal consistency reliability of the CLDQ was 0.83 (range: 0.65-0.90). Most of the hypothesized item-scale correlations were 0.40 or over, and all of such hypothesized correlations were higher than the alternative ones, indicating satisfactory convergent and discriminant validity. Six factors were extracted after varimax rotation from the 29 items of CLDQ. The eligible Cohen's ES with statistically significant independent sample t test was found in the overall CLDQ and abdominal, systematic, activity scales (CHB vs CHB-related cirrhosis), and in the overall CLDQ and abdominal scale in the stratification of patients with CHB (ALT normal vs abnormal). The CLDQ has acceptable reliability, validity and sensitivity in Chinese (mainland) patients with CHB.

Epidemiology: Then and Now.

PubMed

Kuller, Lewis H

2016-03-01

Twenty-five years ago, on the 75th anniversary of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, I noted that epidemiologic research was moving away from the traditional approaches used to investigate "epidemics" and their close relationship with preventive medicine. Twenty-five years later, the role of epidemiology as an important contribution to human population research, preventive medicine, and public health is under substantial pressure because of the emphasis on "big data," phenomenology, and personalized medical therapies. Epidemiology is the study of epidemics. The primary role of epidemiology is to identify the epidemics and parameters of interest of host, agent, and environment and to generate and test hypotheses in search of causal pathways. Almost all diseases have a specific distribution in relation to time, place, and person and specific "causes" with high effect sizes. Epidemiology then uses such information to develop interventions and test (through clinical trials and natural experiments) their efficacy and effectiveness. Epidemiology is dependent on new technologies to evaluate improved measurements of host (genomics), epigenetics, identification of agents (metabolomics, proteomics), new technology to evaluate both physical and social environment, and modern methods of data collection. Epidemiology does poorly in studying anything other than epidemics and collections of numerators and denominators without specific hypotheses even with improved statistical methodologies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Can you sequence ecology? Metagenomics of adaptive diversification.

PubMed

Marx, Christopher J

2013-01-01

Few areas of science have benefited more from the expansion in sequencing capability than the study of microbial communities. Can sequence data, besides providing hypotheses of the functions the members possess, detect the evolutionary and ecological processes that are occurring? For example, can we determine if a species is adapting to one niche, or if it is diversifying into multiple specialists that inhabit distinct niches? Fortunately, adaptation of populations in the laboratory can serve as a model to test our ability to make such inferences about evolution and ecology from sequencing. Even adaptation to a single niche can give rise to complex temporal dynamics due to the transient presence of multiple competing lineages. If there are multiple niches, this complexity is augmented by segmentation of the population into multiple specialists that can each continue to evolve within their own niche. For a known example of parallel diversification that occurred in the laboratory, sequencing data gave surprisingly few obvious, unambiguous signs of the ecological complexity present. Whereas experimental systems are open to direct experimentation to test hypotheses of selection or ecological interaction, the difficulty in "seeing ecology" from sequencing for even such a simple system suggests translation to communities like the human microbiome will be quite challenging. This will require both improved empirical methods to enhance the depth and time resolution for the relevant polymorphisms and novel statistical approaches to rigorously examine time-series data for signs of various evolutionary and ecological phenomena within and between species.

A simple biota removal algorithm for 35 GHz cloud radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalapureddy, Madhu Chandra R.; Sukanya, Patra; Das, Subrata K.; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Pandithurai, Govindan; Pazamany, Andrew L.; Ambuj K., Jha; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Kalekar, Prasad; Krishna Devisetty, Hari; Annam, Sreenivas

2018-03-01

Cloud radar reflectivity profiles can be an important measurement for the investigation of cloud vertical structure (CVS). However, extracting intended meteorological cloud content from the measurement often demands an effective technique or algorithm that can reduce error and observational uncertainties in the recorded data. In this work, a technique is proposed to identify and separate cloud and non-hydrometeor echoes using the radar Doppler spectral moments profile measurements. The point and volume target-based theoretical radar sensitivity curves are used for removing the receiver noise floor and identified radar echoes are scrutinized according to the signal decorrelation period. Here, it is hypothesized that cloud echoes are observed to be temporally more coherent and homogenous and have a longer correlation period than biota. That can be checked statistically using ˜ 4 s sliding mean and standard deviation value of reflectivity profiles. The above step helps in screen out clouds critically by filtering out the biota. The final important step strives for the retrieval of cloud height. The proposed algorithm potentially identifies cloud height solely through the systematic characterization of Z variability using the local atmospheric vertical structure knowledge besides to the theoretical, statistical and echo tracing tools. Thus, characterization of high-resolution cloud radar reflectivity profile measurements has been done with the theoretical echo sensitivity curves and observed echo statistics for the true cloud height tracking (TEST). TEST showed superior performance in screening out clouds and filtering out isolated insects. TEST constrained with polarimetric measurements was found to be more promising under high-density biota whereas TEST combined with linear depolarization ratio and spectral width perform potentially to filter out biota within the highly turbulent shallow cumulus clouds in the convective boundary layer (CBL). This TEST technique is promisingly simple in realization but powerful in performance due to the flexibility in constraining, identifying and filtering out the biota and screening out the true cloud content, especially the CBL clouds. Therefore, the TEST algorithm is superior for screening out the low-level clouds that are strongly linked to the rainmaking mechanism associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon region's CVS.

Diversity patterns amongst herbivorous dinosaurs and plants during the Cretaceous: implications for hypotheses of dinosaur/angiosperm co-evolution.

PubMed

Butler, R J; Barrett, P M; Kenrick, P; Penn, M G

2009-03-01

Palaeobiologists frequently attempt to identify examples of co-evolutionary interactions over extended geological timescales. These hypotheses are often intuitively appealing, as co-evolution is so prevalent in extant ecosystems, and are easy to formulate; however, they are much more difficult to test than their modern analogues. Among the more intriguing deep time co-evolutionary scenarios are those that relate changes in Cretaceous dinosaur faunas to the primary radiation of flowering plants. Demonstration of temporal congruence between the diversifications of co-evolving groups is necessary to establish whether co-evolution could have occurred in such cases, but is insufficient to prove whether it actually did take place. Diversity patterns do, however, provide a means for falsifying such hypotheses. We have compiled a new database of Cretaceous dinosaur and plant distributions from information in the primary literature. This is used as the basis for plotting taxonomic diversity and occurrence curves for herbivorous dinosaurs (Sauropodomorpha, Stegosauria, Ankylosauria, Ornithopoda, Ceratopsia, Pachycephalosauria and herbivorous theropods) and major groups of plants (angiosperms, Bennettitales, cycads, cycadophytes, conifers, Filicales and Ginkgoales) that co-occur in dinosaur-bearing formations. Pairwise statistical comparisons were made between various floral and faunal groups to test for any significant similarities in the shapes of their diversity curves through time. We show that, with one possible exception, diversity patterns for major groups of herbivorous dinosaurs are not positively correlated with angiosperm diversity. In other words, at the level of major clades, there is no support for any diffuse co-evolutionary relationship between herbivorous dinosaurs and flowering plants. The diversification of Late Cretaceous pachycephalosaurs (excluding the problematic taxon Stenopelix) shows a positive correlation, but this might be spuriously related to poor sampling in the Turonian-Santonian interval. Stegosauria shows a significant negative correlation with flowering plants and a significant positive correlation with the nonflowering cycadophytes (cycads, Bennettitales). This interesting pattern is worthy of further investigation, and it reflects the decline of both stegosaurs and cycadophytes during the Early Cretaceous.

Hypothesized eye movements of neurolinguistic programming: a statistical artifact.

PubMed

Farmer, A; Rooney, R; Cunningham, J R

1985-12-01

Neurolinguistic programming's hypothesized eye-movements were measured independently from videotapes of 30 subjects, aged 15 to 76 yr., who were asked to recall visual pictures, recorded audio sounds, and textural objects. chi 2 indicated that subjects' responses were significantly different from those predicted. When chi 2 comparisons were weighted by number of eye positions assigned to each modality (3 visual, 3 auditory, 1 kinesthetic), subjects' responses did not differ significantly from the expected pattern. These data indicate that the eye-movement hypothesis may represent randomly occurring rather than sensory-modality-related positions.

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Comparable Stocks, Boundedly Rational Stock Markets and IPO Entry Rates

PubMed Central

Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

2013-01-01

In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses. PMID:23690924

Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

PubMed

Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

2013-01-01

In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

The Impact of Recreational Marijuana Legislation in Washington, DC on Marijuana Use Cognitions.

PubMed

Clarke, Paige; Dodge, Tonya; Stock, Michelle L

2018-04-13

There is little published research that tests the effect of recreational marijuana legislation on risk-related cognitions and how individuals respond immediately after legislative approval. The objective was to test whether learning about the passage of Initiative 71, a voter referendum that legalized recreational use of marijuana in the District of Columbia, would lead individuals to adopt more favorable marijuana cognitions than they had before the Initiative was passed. Undergraduate students (N = 402) completed two web-based questionnaires in 2014. The first questionnaire was completed prior to the referendum vote and the follow-up questionnaire was completed after voters approved Initiative 71. Attitudes, perceived norms, intentions, prototypes, and willingness were measured at time 1 and time 2. Study hypotheses were tested using repeated-measures analysis of covariance. Results showed that attitudes, intentions, perceived norms, and willingness to use marijuana were more favorable after Initiative 71 was passed. However, the increase in attitudes and willingness was moderated by past experience with marijuana whereby the increases were statistically significant only among those with the least experience. The increase in perceived norms was also moderated by past experience whereby increases were statistically significant among those who were moderate or heavy users. The passage of Initiative 71 had no effect on favorable prototypes. Conclusion/Importance: Legalization may have the unintended outcome of leading to more favorable intentions to use marijuana and might lead abstainers or experimental users to become more frequent users of marijuana via more positive attitudes and willingness towards marijuana use.

An examination of the challenges influencing science instruction in Florida elementary classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

North, Stephanie Gwinn

It has been shown that the mechanical properties of thin films tend to differ from their bulk counterparts. Specifically, the bulge and microtensile testing of thin films used in MEMS have revealed that these films demonstrate an inverse relationship between thickness and strength. A film dimension is not a material property, but it evidently does affect the mechanical performance of materials at very small thicknesses. A hypothetical explanation for this phenomenon is that as the thickness dimension of the film decreases, it is statistically less likely that imperfections exist in the material. It would require a very small thickness (or volume) to limit imperfections in a material, which is why this phenomenon is seen in films with thicknesses on the order of 100 nm to a few microns. Another hypothesized explanation is that the surface tension that exists in bulk material also exists in thin films but has a greater impact at such a small scale. The goal of this research is to identify a theoretical prediction of the strength of thin films based on its microstructural properties such as grain size and film thickness. This would minimize the need for expensive and complicated tests such as the bulge and microtensile tests. In this research, data was collected from the bulge and microtensile testing of copper, aluminum, gold, and polysilicon free-standing thin films. Statistical testing of this data revealed a definitive inverse relationship between thickness and strength, as well as between grain size and strength, as expected. However, due to a lack of a standardized method for either test, there were significant variations in the data. This research compares and analyzes the methods used by other researchers to develop a suggested set of instructions for a standardized bulge test and standardized microtensile test. The most important parameters to be controlled in each test were found to be strain rate, temperature, film deposition method, film length, and strain measurement.

Using Epidemiologic Methods to Test Hypotheses regarding Causal Influences on Child and Adolescent Mental Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lahey, Benjamin B.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Waldman, Irwin D.

2009-01-01

Epidemiology uses strong sampling methods and study designs to test refutable hypotheses regarding the causes of important health, mental health, and social outcomes. Epidemiologic methods are increasingly being used to move developmental psychopathology from studies that catalogue correlates of child and adolescent mental health to designs that…

What plant and soil testing from 16 sites in eight midwestern states tells us about split nitrogen applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is hypothesized that split-nitrogen (N) relative to single near-planting applications improve corn (Zea mays L.) production, N recovery efficiency, and lessen environmental impacts of fertilization. However, these hypotheses have not been fully tested. A 16-site study across eight US Midwestern s...

Bullying Victimization and Adolescent Self-Harm: Testing Hypotheses from General Strain Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hay, Carter; Meldrum, Ryan

2010-01-01

Self-harm is widely recognized as a significant adolescent social problem, and recent research has begun to explore its etiology. Drawing from Agnew's (1992) social psychological strain theory of deviance, this study considers this issue by testing three hypotheses about the effects of traditional and cyber bullying victimization on deliberate…

Testing Alternative Hypotheses Regarding the Association between Behavioral Inhibition and Language Development in Toddlerhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watts, Ashley K. Smith; Patel, Deepika; Corley, Robin P.; Friedman, Naomi P.; Hewitt, John K.; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Rhee, Soo H.

2014-01-01

Studies have reported an inverse association between language development and behavioral inhibition or shyness across childhood, but the direction of this association remains unclear. This study tested alternative hypotheses regarding this association in a large sample of toddlers. Data on behavioral inhibition and expressive and receptive…

A Refined Computer Harassment Paradigm: Validation, and Test of Hypotheses about Target Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siebler, Frank; Sabelus, Saskia; Bohner, Gerd

2008-01-01

A refined computer paradigm for assessing sexual harassment is presented, validated, and used for testing substantive hypotheses. Male participants were given an opportunity to send sexist jokes to a computer-simulated female chat partner. In Study 1 (N = 44), the harassment measure (number of sexist jokes sent) correlated positively with…

Increased fibulin-1 plasma levels in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients: possible contribution to the link between PCOS and cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Scarinci, E; Tropea, A; Russo, G; Notaristefano, G; Messana, C; Alesiani, O; Fabozzi, S M; Lanzone, A; Apa, R

2018-04-21

To investigate a possible relation between fibulin-1 plasma levels and PCOS. ELISA quantitative determination of human fibulin-1. 50 women with PCOS and 40 control patients who attended the Unit of Human Reproductive Pathophysiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, were enrolled. Ultrasonographic pelvic examinations, hormonal profile assays, oral tolerance test OGTT, lipid profile and ELISA quantitative determination of human fibulin-1 were performed. Fibulin-1 levels were found to be statistically significantly higher in PCOS patients than in matched control women. No statistically significant positive correlation was found between fibulin-1 and AUCi, HOMA-IR, total cholesterol, LDL, AMH, androstenedione and FAI, whereas a statistically significant positive correlation was found between fibulin-1 and 17OHP (p = 0.016) in the PCOS group. However, multivariable linear regression analysis showed that 17 OH P did not independently predict fibulin-1 levels (p = 0.089). Our data could contribute to explain the hypothesized increased cardiovascular risk and vascular damage in patients with PCOS. A better understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in cardiometabolic disorders associated with PCOS is mandatory to identify new therapeutic strategies to eventually prevent the progression of cardiovascular diseases in these patients.

An Analysis of High School Students' Performance on Five Integrated Science Process Skills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaumont-Walters, Yvonne; Soyibo, Kola

2001-02-01

This study determined Jamaican high school students' level of performance on five integrated science process skills and if there were statistically significant differences in their performance linked to their gender, grade level, school location, school type, student type and socio-economic background (SEB). The 305 subjects comprised 133 males, 172 females, 146 ninth graders, 159 10th graders, 150 traditional and 155 comprehensive high school students, 164 students from the Reform of Secondary Education (ROSE) project and 141 non-ROSE students, 166 urban and 139 rural students and 110 students from a high SEB and 195 from a low SEB. Data were collected with the authors' constructed integrated science process skills test the results indicated that the subjects' mean score was low and unsatisfactory; their performance in decreasing order was: interpreting data, recording data, generalising, formulating hypotheses and identifying variables; there were statistically significant differences in their performance based on their grade level, school type, student type, and SEB in favour of the 10th graders, traditional high school students, ROSE students and students from a high SEB. There was a positive, statistically significant and fairly strong relationship between their performance and school type, but weak relationships among their student type, grade level and SEB and performance.

A lognormal distribution of the lengths of terminal twigs on self-similar branches of elm trees.

PubMed

Koyama, Kohei; Yamamoto, Ken; Ushio, Masayuki

2017-01-11

Lognormal distributions and self-similarity are characteristics associated with a wide range of biological systems. The sequential breakage model has established a link between lognormal distributions and self-similarity and has been used to explain species abundance distributions. To date, however, there has been no similar evidence in studies of multicellular organismal forms. We tested the hypotheses that the distribution of the lengths of terminal stems of Japanese elm trees (Ulmus davidiana), the end products of a self-similar branching process, approaches a lognormal distribution. We measured the length of the stem segments of three elm branches and obtained the following results: (i) each occurrence of branching caused variations or errors in the lengths of the child stems relative to their parent stems; (ii) the branches showed statistical self-similarity; the observed error distributions were similar at all scales within each branch and (iii) the multiplicative effect of these errors generated variations of the lengths of terminal twigs that were well approximated by a lognormal distribution, although some statistically significant deviations from strict lognormality were observed for one branch. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that statistical self-similarity of an organismal form generates a lognormal distribution of organ sizes. © 2017 The Author(s).

Knowledge Base Refinement as Improving an Incorrect and Incomplete Domain Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-04-01

Ginsberg et al., 1985), and RL (Fu and Buchanan, 1985), which perform empirical induction over a library of test cases. This chapter describes a new...state knowledge. Examples of high-level goals are: to test a hypothesis, to differentiate between several plausible hypotheses, to ask a clarifying...one tuple when we Group Hypotheses Test Hypothesis Applyrule Findout Strategy Metarule Strategy Metarule Strategy Metarule Strategy Metarule goal(group

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

2000-01-01

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

PubMed

Biau, David Jean; Jolles, Brigitte M; Porcher, Raphaël

2010-03-01

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

The frequentist implications of optional stopping on Bayesian hypothesis tests.

PubMed

Sanborn, Adam N; Hills, Thomas T

2014-04-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most commonly used statistical methodology in psychology. The probability of achieving a value as extreme or more extreme than the statistic obtained from the data is evaluated, and if it is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected. However, because common experimental practice often clashes with the assumptions underlying NHST, these calculated probabilities are often incorrect. Most commonly, experimenters use tests that assume that sample sizes are fixed in advance of data collection but then use the data to determine when to stop; in the limit, experimenters can use data monitoring to guarantee that the null hypothesis will be rejected. Bayesian hypothesis testing (BHT) provides a solution to these ills because the stopping rule used is irrelevant to the calculation of a Bayes factor. In addition, there are strong mathematical guarantees on the frequentist properties of BHT that are comforting for researchers concerned that stopping rules could influence the Bayes factors produced. Here, we show that these guaranteed bounds have limited scope and often do not apply in psychological research. Specifically, we quantitatively demonstrate the impact of optional stopping on the resulting Bayes factors in two common situations: (1) when the truth is a combination of the hypotheses, such as in a heterogeneous population, and (2) when a hypothesis is composite-taking multiple parameter values-such as the alternative hypothesis in a t-test. We found that, for these situations, while the Bayesian interpretation remains correct regardless of the stopping rule used, the choice of stopping rule can, in some situations, greatly increase the chance of experimenters finding evidence in the direction they desire. We suggest ways to control these frequentist implications of stopping rules on BHT.

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration-based and theory-based (order-restricted) hypotheses.

PubMed

Kuiper, Rebecca M; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene

2015-05-01

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration-based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory-based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory-based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality-constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order-restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non-null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory-based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number). © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Replication of a gene-environment interaction Via Multimodel inference: additive-genetic variance in adolescents' general cognitive ability increases with family-of-origin socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Robert M; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

2015-03-01

The present study of general cognitive ability attempts to replicate and extend previous investigations of a biometric moderator, family-of-origin socioeconomic status (SES), in a sample of 2,494 pairs of adolescent twins, non-twin biological siblings, and adoptive siblings assessed with individually administered IQ tests. We hypothesized that SES would covary positively with additive-genetic variance and negatively with shared-environmental variance. Important potential confounds unaddressed in some past studies, such as twin-specific effects, assortative mating, and differential heritability by trait level, were found to be negligible. In our main analysis, we compared models by their sample-size corrected AIC, and base our statistical inference on model-averaged point estimates and standard errors. Additive-genetic variance increased with SES-an effect that was statistically significant and robust to model specification. We found no evidence that SES moderated shared-environmental influence. We attempt to explain the inconsistent replication record of these effects, and provide suggestions for future research.

Replication of a Gene-Environment Interaction via Multimodel Inference: Additive-Genetic Variance in Adolescents’ General Cognitive Ability Increases with Family-of-Origin Socioeconomic Status

PubMed Central

Kirkpatrick, Robert M.; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G.

2015-01-01

The present study of general cognitive ability attempts to replicate and extend previous investigations of a biometric moderator, family-of-origin socioeconomic status (SES), in a sample of 2,494 pairs of adolescent twins, non-twin biological siblings, and adoptive siblings assessed with individually administered IQ tests. We hypothesized that SES would covary positively with additive-genetic variance and negatively with shared-environmental variance. Important potential confounds unaddressed in some past studies, such as twin-specific effects, assortative mating, and differential heritability by trait level, were found to be negligible. In our main analysis, we compared models by their sample-size corrected AIC, and base our statistical inference on model-averaged point estimates and standard errors. Additive-genetic variance increased with SES—an effect that was statistically significant and robust to model specification. We found no evidence that SES moderated shared-environmental influence. We attempt to explain the inconsistent replication record of these effects, and provide suggestions for future research. PMID:25539975

Fault detection and diagnosis in a spacecraft attitude determination system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirmoradi, F. N.; Sassani, F.; de Silva, C. W.

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new scheme for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) in spacecraft attitude determination (AD) sensors. An integrated attitude determination system, which includes measurements of rate and angular position using rate gyros and vector sensors, is developed. Measurement data from all sensors are fused by a linearized Kalman filter, which is designed based on the system kinematics, to provide attitude estimation and the values of the gyro bias. Using this information the erroneous sensor measurements are corrected, and unbounded sensor measurement errors are avoided. The resulting bias-free data are used in the FDD scheme. The FDD algorithm uses model-based state estimation, combining the information from the rotational dynamics and kinematics of a spacecraft with the sensor measurements to predict the future sensor outputs. Fault isolation is performed through extended Kalman filters (EKFs). The innovation sequences of EKFs are monitored by several statistical tests to detect the presence of a failure and to localize the failures in all AD sensors. The isolation procedure is developed in two phases. In the first phase, two EKFs are designed, which use subsets of measurements to provide state estimates and form residuals, which are used to verify the source of the fault. In the second phase of isolation, testing of multiple hypotheses is performed. The generalized likelihood ratio test is utilized to identify the faulty components. In the scheme developed in this paper a relatively small number of hypotheses is used, which results in faster isolation and highly distinguishable fault signatures. An important feature of the developed FDD scheme is that it can provide attitude estimations even if only one type of sensors is functioning properly.

SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect effects in simple mediation models.

PubMed

Preacher, Kristopher J; Hayes, Andrew F

2004-11-01

Researchers often conduct mediation analysis in order to indirectly assess the effect of a proposed cause on some outcome through a proposed mediator. The utility of mediation analysis stems from its ability to go beyond the merely descriptive to a more functional understanding of the relationships among variables. A necessary component of mediation is a statistically and practically significant indirect effect. Although mediation hypotheses are frequently explored in psychological research, formal significance tests of indirect effects are rarely conducted. After a brief overview of mediation, we argue the importance of directly testing the significance of indirect effects and provide SPSS and SAS macros that facilitate estimation of the indirect effect with a normal theory approach and a bootstrap approach to obtaining confidence intervals, as well as the traditional approach advocated by Baron and Kenny (1986). We hope that this discussion and the macros will enhance the frequency of formal mediation tests in the psychology literature. Electronic copies of these macros may be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society's Web archive at www.psychonomic.org/archive/.

More reliable inference for the dissimilarity index of segregation

PubMed Central

Allen, Rebecca; Burgess, Simon; Davidson, Russell; Windmeijer, Frank

2015-01-01

Summary The most widely used measure of segregation is the so‐called dissimilarity index. It is now well understood that this measure also reflects randomness in the allocation of individuals to units (i.e. it measures deviations from evenness, not deviations from randomness). This leads to potentially large values of the segregation index when unit sizes and/or minority proportions are small, even if there is no underlying systematic segregation. Our response to this is to produce adjustments to the index, based on an underlying statistical model. We specify the assignment problem in a very general way, with differences in conditional assignment probabilities underlying the resulting segregation. From this, we derive a likelihood ratio test for the presence of any systematic segregation, and bias adjustments to the dissimilarity index. We further develop the asymptotic distribution theory for testing hypotheses concerning the magnitude of the segregation index and show that the use of bootstrap methods can improve the size and power properties of test procedures considerably. We illustrate these methods by comparing dissimilarity indices across school districts in England to measure social segregation. PMID:27774035

Ecosystem functioning and maximum entropy production: a quantitative test of hypotheses.

PubMed

Meysman, Filip J R; Bruers, Stijn

2010-05-12

The idea that entropy production puts a constraint on ecosystem functioning is quite popular in ecological thermodynamics. Yet, until now, such claims have received little quantitative verification. Here, we examine three 'entropy production' hypotheses that have been forwarded in the past. The first states that increased entropy production serves as a fingerprint of living systems. The other two hypotheses invoke stronger constraints. The state selection hypothesis states that when a system can attain multiple steady states, the stable state will show the highest entropy production rate. The gradient response principle requires that when the thermodynamic gradient increases, the system's new stable state should always be accompanied by a higher entropy production rate. We test these three hypotheses by applying them to a set of conventional food web models. Each time, we calculate the entropy production rate associated with the stable state of the ecosystem. This analysis shows that the first hypothesis holds for all the food webs tested: the living state shows always an increased entropy production over the abiotic state. In contrast, the state selection and gradient response hypotheses break down when the food web incorporates more than one trophic level, indicating that they are not generally valid.

A randomized clinical trial of buprenorphine for prisoners: Findings at 12-months post-release

PubMed Central

Gordon, Michael S.; Kinlock, Timothy W.; Schwartz, Robert P.; O’Grady, Kevin E.; Fitzgerald, Terrence T.; Vocci, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Background This study examined whether starting buprenorphine treatment prior to prison and after release from prison would be associated with better drug treatment outcomes and whether males and females responded differently to the combination of in-prison treatment and post-release service setting. Methods Study design was a 2 (In-Prison Treatment Condition: Buprenorphine Treatment Vs. Counseling Only) X 2 [Post-Release Service Setting Condition: Opioid Treatment Program (OTP) Vs. Community Health Center (CHC)] X 2 (Gender) factorial design. The trial was conducted between September 2008 and July 2012. Follow-up assessments were completed in 2014. Participants were recruited from two Baltimore prerelease prisons (one for men and one for women). Adult pre-release prisoners who were heroin-dependent during the year prior to incarceration were eligible. Post-release assessments were conducted at 1, 3, 6, and 12-month following prison release. Results Participants (N=211) in the in-prison treatment condition effect had a higher mean number of days of community buprenorphine treatment compared to the condition in which participants initiated medication after release (P=.005). However, there were no statistically significant hypothesized effects for the in-prison treatment condition in terms of: days of heroin use and crime, and opioid and cocaine positive urine screening test results (all Ps>.14) and no statistically significant hypothesized gender effects (all Ps>.18). Conclusions Although initiating buprenorphine treatment in prison compared to after-release was associated with more days receiving buprenorphine treatment in the designated community treatment program during the 12-months post-release assessment, it was not associated with superior outcomes in terms of heroin and cocaine use and criminal behavior. PMID:28107680

A randomized clinical trial of buprenorphine for prisoners: Findings at 12-months post-release.

PubMed

Gordon, Michael S; Kinlock, Timothy W; Schwartz, Robert P; O'Grady, Kevin E; Fitzgerald, Terrence T; Vocci, Frank J

2017-03-01

This study examined whether starting buprenorphine treatment prior to prison and after release from prison would be associated with better drug treatment outcomes and whether males and females responded differently to the combination of in-prison treatment and post-release service setting. Study design was a 2 (In-Prison Treatment: Condition: Buprenorphine Treatment: vs. Counseling Only)×2 [Post-Release Service Setting Condition: Opioid Treatment: Program (OTP) vs. Community Health Center (CHC)]×2 (Gender) factorial design. The trial was conducted between September 2008 and July 2012. Follow-up assessments were completed in 2014. Participants were recruited from two Baltimore pre-release prisons (one for men and one for women). Adult pre-release prisoners who were heroin-dependent during the year prior to incarceration were eligible. Post-release assessments were conducted at 1, 3, 6, and 12-month following prison release. Participants (N=211) in the in-prison treatment condition effect had a higher mean number of days of community buprenorphine treatment compared to the condition in which participants initiated medication after release (P=0.005). However, there were no statistically significant hypothesized effects for the in-prison treatment condition in terms of: days of heroin use and crime, and opioid and cocaine positive urine screening test results (all Ps>0.14) and no statistically significant hypothesized gender effects (all Ps>0.18). Although initiating buprenorphine treatment in prison compared to after-release was associated with more days receiving buprenorphine treatment in the designated community treatment program during the 12-months post-release assessment, it was not associated with superior outcomes in terms of heroin and cocaine use and criminal behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for establishing constraints on galactic magnetic field models using ultra high energy cosmic rays and results from the data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Michael Stephen

2010-12-01

The Galactic magnetic field is poorly understood. Essentially the only reliable measurements of its properties are the local orientation and field strength. Its behavior at galactic scales is unknown. Historically, magnetic field measurements have been performed using radio astronomy techniques which are sensitive to certain regions of the Galaxy and rely upon models of the distribution of gas and dust within the disk. However, the deflection of trajectories of ultra high energy cosmic rays arriving from extragalactic sources depends only on the properties of the magnetic field. In this work, a method is developed for determining acceptable global models of the Galactic magnetic field by backtracking cosmic rays through the field model. This method constrains the parameter space of magnetic field models by comparing a test statistic between backtracked cosmic rays and isotropic expectations for assumed cosmic ray source and composition hypotheses. Constraints on Galactic magnetic field models are established using data from the southern site of the Pierre Auger Observatory under various source distribution and cosmic ray composition hypotheses. Field models possessing structure similar to the stellar spiral arms are found to be inconsistent with hypotheses of an iron cosmic ray composition and sources selected from catalogs tracing the local matter distribution in the universe. These field models are consistent with hypothesis combinations of proton composition and sources tracing the local matter distribution. In particular, strong constraints are found on the parameter space of bisymmetric magnetic field models scanned under hypotheses of proton composition and sources selected from the 2MRS-VS, Swift 39-month, and VCV catalogs. Assuming that the Galactic magnetic field is well-described by a bisymmetric model under these hypotheses, the magnetic field strength near the Sun is less than 3-4 muG and magnetic pitch angle is less than -8°. These results comprise the first measurements of the Galactic magnetic field using ultra-high energy cosmic rays and supplement existing radio astronomical measurements of the Galactic magnetic field.

Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, K. R.

2018-03-01

The Bayesian approach allows an intuitive way to derive the methods of statistics. Probability is defined as a measure of the plausibility of statements or propositions. Three rules are sufficient to obtain the laws of probability. If the statements refer to the numerical values of variables, the so-called random variables, univariate and multivariate distributions follow. They lead to the point estimation by which unknown quantities, i.e. unknown parameters, are computed from measurements. The unknown parameters are random variables, they are fixed quantities in traditional statistics which is not founded on Bayes' theorem. Bayesian statistics therefore recommends itself for Monte Carlo methods, which generate random variates from given distributions. Monte Carlo methods, of course, can also be applied in traditional statistics. The unknown parameters, are introduced as functions of the measurements, and the Monte Carlo methods give the covariance matrix and the expectation of these functions. A confidence region is derived where the unknown parameters are situated with a given probability. Following a method of traditional statistics, hypotheses are tested by determining whether a value for an unknown parameter lies inside or outside the confidence region. The error propagation of a random vector by the Monte Carlo methods is presented as an application. If the random vector results from a nonlinearly transformed vector, its covariance matrix and its expectation follow from the Monte Carlo estimate. This saves a considerable amount of derivatives to be computed, and errors of the linearization are avoided. The Monte Carlo method is therefore efficient. If the functions of the measurements are given by a sum of two or more random vectors with different multivariate distributions, the resulting distribution is generally not known. TheMonte Carlo methods are then needed to obtain the covariance matrix and the expectation of the sum.

Computational and Statistical Models: A Comparison for Policy Modeling of Childhood Obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabry, Patricia L.; Hammond, Ross; Ip, Edward Hak-Sing; Huang, Terry T.-K.

As systems science methodologies have begun to emerge as a set of innovative approaches to address complex problems in behavioral, social science, and public health research, some apparent conflicts with traditional statistical methodologies for public health have arisen. Computational modeling is an approach set in context that integrates diverse sources of data to test the plausibility of working hypotheses and to elicit novel ones. Statistical models are reductionist approaches geared towards proving the null hypothesis. While these two approaches may seem contrary to each other, we propose that they are in fact complementary and can be used jointly to advance solutions to complex problems. Outputs from statistical models can be fed into computational models, and outputs from computational models can lead to further empirical data collection and statistical models. Together, this presents an iterative process that refines the models and contributes to a greater understanding of the problem and its potential solutions. The purpose of this panel is to foster communication and understanding between statistical and computational modelers. Our goal is to shed light on the differences between the approaches and convey what kinds of research inquiries each one is best for addressing and how they can serve complementary (and synergistic) roles in the research process, to mutual benefit. For each approach the panel will cover the relevant "assumptions" and how the differences in what is assumed can foster misunderstandings. The interpretations of the results from each approach will be compared and contrasted and the limitations for each approach will be delineated. We will use illustrative examples from CompMod, the Comparative Modeling Network for Childhood Obesity Policy. The panel will also incorporate interactive discussions with the audience on the issues raised here.

Contribution of small and medium enterprises to economic development: Evidence from a transiting economy.

PubMed

Obi, James; Ibidunni, Ayodotun Stephen; Tolulope, Atolagbe; Olokundun, Maxwell Ayodele; Amaihian, Augusta Bosede; Borishade, Taiye Tairat; Fred, Peter

2018-06-01

The focus of this research was to present a data article on the contribution of SMEs to economic development in a transiting economy. Descriptive research design was adopted in this study. Data were obtained from 600 respondents in 60 small-scale enterprises located in different parts of the country (20 small-scale enterprises located in Lagos State, 20 in Anambra State and 20 in Kano State of Nigeria respectively). Data analysis was carried out using tables and percentages and the null hypotheses of the study was tested using chi-square ( X 2 ) inferential statistical model at 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that there is a significant relationship between the operation of small and medium-scale enterprises and economic growth in developing nations.

Protocol Design Challenges in the Detection of Awareness in Aware Subjects Using EEG Signals.

PubMed

Henriques, J; Gabriel, D; Grigoryeva, L; Haffen, E; Moulin, T; Aubry, R; Pazart, L; Ortega, J-P

2016-10-01

Recent studies have evidenced serious difficulties in detecting covert awareness with electroencephalography-based techniques both in unresponsive patients and in healthy control subjects. This work reproduces the protocol design in two recent mental imagery studies with a larger group comprising 20 healthy volunteers. The main goal is assessing if modifications in the signal extraction techniques, training-testing/cross-validation routines, and hypotheses evoked in the statistical analysis, can provide solutions to the serious difficulties documented in the literature. The lack of robustness in the results advises for further search of alternative protocols more suitable for machine learning classification and of better performing signal treatment techniques. Specific recommendations are made using the findings in this work. © EEG and Clinical Neuroscience Society (ECNS) 2014.

Asymptotic Normality of the Maximum Pseudolikelihood Estimator for Fully Visible Boltzmann Machines.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hien D; Wood, Ian A

2016-04-01

Boltzmann machines (BMs) are a class of binary neural networks for which there have been numerous proposed methods of estimation. Recently, it has been shown that in the fully visible case of the BM, the method of maximum pseudolikelihood estimation (MPLE) results in parameter estimates, which are consistent in the probabilistic sense. In this brief, we investigate the properties of MPLE for the fully visible BMs further, and prove that MPLE also yields an asymptotically normal parameter estimator. These results can be used to construct confidence intervals and to test statistical hypotheses. These constructions provide a closed-form alternative to the current methods that require Monte Carlo simulation or resampling. We support our theoretical results by showing that the estimator behaves as expected in simulation studies.

Factors influencing health information system adoption in American hospitals.

PubMed

Wang, Bill B; Wan, Thomas T H; Burke, Darrell E; Bazzoli, Gloria J; Lin, Blossom Y J

2005-01-01

To study the number of health information systems (HISs), applicable to administrative, clinical, and executive decision support functionalities, adopted by acute care hospitals and to examine how hospital market, organizational, and financial factors influence HIS adoption. A cross-sectional analysis was performed with 1441 hospitals selected from metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. Multiple data sources were merged. Six hypotheses were empirically tested by multiple regression analysis. HIS adoption was influenced by the hospital market, organizational, and financial factors. Larger, system-affiliated, and for-profit hospitals with more preferred provider organization contracts are more likely to adopt managerial information systems than their counterparts. Operating revenue is positively associated with HIS adoption. The study concludes that hospital organizational and financial factors influence on hospitals' strategic adoption of clinical, administrative, and managerial information systems.

Does flying present a threat of PBDE exposure?

PubMed Central

Schecter, Arnold; Smith, Sarah; Haffner, Darrah; Colacino, Justin; Malik, Noor; Patel, Keyur; Harris, Robert; Opel, Mathias; Paepke, Olaf

2010-01-01

Objective To investigate possible exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in US professional airline workers. Methods We recruited 30 healthy US professional airline workers who lived in the Dallas, TX area to test their blood PBDE levels. We examined the relationship between hours worked in an airplane to total PBDE blood levels. Results Total PBDE blood levels from the 30 volunteers were unremarkable despite minor elevations of certain congeners in a few volunteers. No statistically significant correlations were noted between hours in airplanes in the past one or five years and levels of individual BDE congeners or total PBDEs. Conclusions We hypothesized that elevated PBDE levels in commercial aviation workers could be found associated with time spent in airliners. Our findings do not support such an association. PMID:21124237

Empirical findings on socioeconomic determinants of fertility differentials in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Carvajal, M J; Geithman, D T

1986-01-01

"This paper seeks to (1) identify socioeconomic variables that are expected to generate fertility differentials; (2) hypothesize the direction and magnitude of the effect of each variable by reference to a demand-for-children model; and (3) test empirically the model using evidence from Costa Rica. The estimates are obtained from a ten-percent systematic random sample of all Costa Rican individual-family households. There are 15,924 families in the sample...." The authors specifically seek "to capture the effects of changing relative prices and available income and time constraints on parental preferences for children. Least-squares estimates show statistically significant relationships between household fertility and opportunity cost of time, parental education, occurrence of an extended family, medical care, household sanitation, economic sector of employment, and household stock of nonhuman capital." excerpt

Delinquency and Peer Acceptance in Adolescence: A Within-Person Test of Moffitt’s Hypotheses

PubMed Central

Rulison, Kelly L; Kreager, Derek A.; Osgood, D. Wayne

2015-01-01

We tested two hypotheses derived from Moffitt’s (1993) taxonomic theory of antisocial behavior, both of which are central to her explanation for the rise in delinquency during adolescence. Specifically, we tested whether persistently delinquent individuals become more accepted by their peers during adolescence and whether individuals who abstain from delinquent behavior become less accepted. Participants were 4,359 adolescents from 14 communities in the PROSPER study, which assessed friendship networks and delinquency from 6th (M = 11.8 years) to 9th (M = 15.3 years) grade. We operationalized peer acceptance as: number of nominations received (indegree centrality), attractiveness as a friend (adjusted indegree centrality), and network bridging potential (betweenness centrality) and tested the hypotheses using multilevel modeling. Contrary to Moffitt’s hypothesis, persistently delinquent youth did not become more accepted between early and middle adolescence, and although abstainers were less accepted in early adolescence, they became more accepted over time. Results were similar for boys and girls; when differences occurred, they provided no support for Moffitt’s hypotheses for boys and were opposite of her hypotheses for girls. Sensitivity analyses using alternative strategies and additional data to identify persistently delinquent adolescents produced similar results. We explore the implications of these results for Moffitt’s assertions that social mimicry of persistently antisocial adolescents leads to increases in delinquency and that social isolation leads to abstention. PMID:25243328

Distributions of Characteristic Roots in Multivariate Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-01

stiidied by various authors, have been briefly discussed. Such distributional ies of four test criteria and a few less important ones which are...functions h. -nots have further been discussed in view of the power comparisons made in co. ion wich tests of three multivariate hypotheses. In addition...one- sample case has also been considered in terms of distributional aspects of the ch. roots and criteria for tests of two hypotheses on the

The relationship between rural community type and attachment to place for older people living in North Wales, UK.

PubMed

Burholt, Vanessa; Naylor, Dawn

2005-06-01

This paper explores the relationship between rural community type and attachment to place for 387 older people aged 70 and over. Six rural settlements in North Wales are characterised according to certain statistics (e.g. age structure, in-migration, strength of local culture, and multiple deprivation) to provide distinct community profiles. It is hypothesised that community type is characterised by particular types of attachment, which are dependent on life course trajectories and changes or stability in the environment. Using a sevenfold classification of attachment to place, the paper tests seven hypotheses. The results support four of the seven hypotheses. Older people living in a retirement destination are more likely to report aesthetic qualities and the appropriateness of the environment. People living in native areas with a strong culture and local language are more likely to note the importance of historical attachment and social integration into the community. Three hypotheses are rejected: older people living in a retirement destination are not less likely to report social support, or a historical perspective in attachment to place, and older people living in areas with high levels of multiple deprivation are not more likely to encounter relocation restraints than are others. Overall, the findings suggest that the taxonomy of attachment to place provides a flexible framework for differentiation by community. The paper concludes that communities are not merely settings-they play a significant role in self-identity and are a vital source of emotional and experiential meaning for the inhabitant.

Scaling, Similarity, and the Fourth Paradigm for Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; van Emmerik, Tim; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Achieng, Kevin; Franz, Trenton E.; Woods, Ross

2017-01-01

In this synthesis paper addressing hydrologic scaling and similarity, we posit that roadblocks in the search for universal laws of hydrology are hindered by our focus on computational simulation (the third paradigm), and assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modelling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological scaling and similarity hypotheses. We summarize important scaling and similarity concepts (hypotheses) that require testing, describe a mutual information framework for testing these hypotheses, describe boundary condition, state flux, and parameter data requirements across scales to support testing these hypotheses, and discuss some challenges to overcome while pursuing the fourth hydrological paradigm. We call upon the hydrologic sciences community to develop a focused effort towards adopting the fourth paradigm and apply this to outstanding challenges in scaling and similarity.

Animal testing is still the best way to find new treatments for patients.

PubMed

Garattini, Silvio; Grignaschi, Giuliano

2017-04-01

Experimental research proceeds by hypotheses formulated on the basis of previous or new knowledge and then tested. If they are accepted, they serve as the basis for further hypotheses, and if they are rejected new hypotheses can be developed. In other words, when we are at the frontiers of knowledge the path is forged by "trial and error". When a trial shows a hypothesis is wrong, this is a step toward making fewer errors. This process also applies to drug development. There is no magic formula at present to predict - at the pre-clinical level - the therapeutic value of a drug for people with a disease. However, pre-clinical studies are needed in order to formulate hypotheses that justify clinical trials. Without these preliminary studies in vitro and in vivo in selected animal species it would be unethical to test still unproven chemicals in humans. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social Development in Six-Year-Old Identical and Fraternal Twins.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schave, Barbara; And Others

Four null hypotheses were formulated to test for relationships between pairs of identical and fraternal twins and their parents on measures of locus of control. Two additional hypotheses were formulated to test for differences between mean scores of identical and fraternal twins and scores of their parents on these same constructs. Twenty pairs of…

Vestigial Biological Structures: A Classroom-Applicable Test of Creationist Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Senter, Phil; Ambrocio, Zenis; Andrade, Julia B.; Foust, Katanya K.; Gaston, Jasmine E.; Lewis, Ryshonda P.; Liniewski, Rachel M.; Ragin, Bobby A.; Robinson, Khanna L.; Stanley, Shane G.

2015-01-01

Lists of vestigial biological structures in biology textbooks are so short that some young-Earth creationist authors claim that scientists have lost confidence in the existence of vestigial structures and can no longer identify any verifiable ones. We tested these hypotheses with a method that is easily adapted to biology classes. We used online…

Factors that Affect the Physical Science Career Interest of Female Students: Testing Five Common Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hazari, Zahra; Potvin, Geoff; Lock, Robynne M.; Lung, Florin; Sonnert, Gerhard; Sadler, Philip M.

2013-01-01

There are many hypotheses regarding factors that may encourage female students to pursue careers in the physical sciences. Using multivariate matching methods on national data drawn from the Persistence Research in Science and Engineering (PRiSE) project ("n" = 7505), we test the following five commonly held beliefs regarding what…

Keeping Our Network Safe: A Model of Online Protection Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Doohwang; Larose, Robert; Rifon, Nora

2008-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop and test a model of online protection behaviour, particularly regarding the use of virus protection. Hypotheses are proposed concerning the predictors of the intention to engage in virus protection behaviour. Using a survey of 273 college students who use the Internet, a test of the hypotheses is conducted…

Learned Helplessness and Depression in a Clinical Population: A Test of Two Behavioral Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

And Others; Price, Kenneth P.

1978-01-01

This study was undertaken to extend the learned helplessness phenomenon to a clinical population and to test the competing hypotheses of Seligman and Lewinsohn. 96 male hospitalized psychiatric and medical patients were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions. Results replicate the learned helplessness phenomenon in a group of…

Testing the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis for Psychopathology Using Family-Based Quasi-Experimental Designs

PubMed Central

D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Class, Quetzal A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Larsson, Henrik

2014-01-01

The Developmental Origin of Health and Disease (DOHaD) hypothesis is a broad theoretical framework that emphasizes how early risk factors have a causal influence on psychopathology. Researchers have raised concerns about the causal interpretation of statistical associations between early risk factors and later psychopathology because most existing studies have been unable to rule out the possibility of environmental and genetic confounding. In this paper we illustrate how family-based quasi-experimental designs can test the DOHaD hypothesis by ruling out alternative hypotheses. We review the logic underlying sibling-comparison, co-twin control, offspring of siblings/twins, adoption, and in vitro fertilization designs. We then present results from studies using these designs focused on broad indices of fetal development (low birth weight and gestational age) and a particular teratogen, smoking during pregnancy. The results provide mixed support for the DOHaD hypothesis for psychopathology, illustrating the critical need to use design features that rule out unmeasured confounding. PMID:25364377

Distributional Analysis in Educational Evaluation: A Case Study from the New York City Voucher Program

PubMed Central

Domina, Thurston; Penner, Emily; Hoynes, Hilary

2014-01-01

We use quantile treatment effects estimation to examine the consequences of the random-assignment New York City School Choice Scholarship Program (NYCSCSP) across the distribution of student achievement. Our analyses suggest that the program had negligible and statistically insignificant effects across the skill distribution. In addition to contributing to the literature on school choice, the paper illustrates several ways in which distributional effects estimation can enrich educational research: First, we demonstrate that moving beyond a focus on mean effects estimation makes it possible to generate and test new hypotheses about the heterogeneity of educational treatment effects that speak to the justification for many interventions. Second, we demonstrate that distributional effects can uncover issues even with well-studied datasets by forcing analysts to view their data in new ways. Finally, such estimates highlight where in the overall national achievement distribution test scores of children exposed to particular interventions lie; this is important for exploring the external validity of the intervention’s effects. PMID:26207158

Using Bayesian regression to test hypotheses about relationships between parameters and covariates in cognitive models.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; Steingroever, Helen; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-06-01

An important tool in the advancement of cognitive science are quantitative models that represent different cognitive variables in terms of model parameters. To evaluate such models, their parameters are typically tested for relationships with behavioral and physiological variables that are thought to reflect specific cognitive processes. However, many models do not come equipped with the statistical framework needed to relate model parameters to covariates. Instead, researchers often revert to classifying participants into groups depending on their values on the covariates, and subsequently comparing the estimated model parameters between these groups. Here we develop a comprehensive solution to the covariate problem in the form of a Bayesian regression framework. Our framework can be easily added to existing cognitive models and allows researchers to quantify the evidential support for relationships between covariates and model parameters using Bayes factors. Moreover, we present a simulation study that demonstrates the superiority of the Bayesian regression framework to the conventional classification-based approach.

Musicians' edge: A comparison of auditory processing, cognitive abilities and statistical learning.

PubMed

Mandikal Vasuki, Pragati Rao; Sharma, Mridula; Demuth, Katherine; Arciuli, Joanne

2016-12-01

It has been hypothesized that musical expertise is associated with enhanced auditory processing and cognitive abilities. Recent research has examined the relationship between musicians' advantage and implicit statistical learning skills. In the present study, we assessed a variety of auditory processing skills, cognitive processing skills, and statistical learning (auditory and visual forms) in age-matched musicians (N = 17) and non-musicians (N = 18). Musicians had significantly better performance than non-musicians on frequency discrimination, and backward digit span. A key finding was that musicians had better auditory, but not visual, statistical learning than non-musicians. Performance on the statistical learning tasks was not correlated with performance on auditory and cognitive measures. Musicians' superior performance on auditory (but not visual) statistical learning suggests that musical expertise is associated with an enhanced ability to detect statistical regularities in auditory stimuli. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examination of Substance Use, Risk Factors, and Protective Factors on Student Academic Test Score Performance

PubMed Central

Arthur, Michael W.; Brown, Eric C.; Briney, John S.; Hawkins, J. David; Abbott, Robert D.; Catalano, Richard F.; Becker, Linda; Langer, Michael; Mueller, Martin T.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND School administrators and teachers face difficult decisions about how best to use school resources in order to meet academic achievement goals. Many are hesitant to adopt prevention curricula that are not focused directly on academic achievement. Yet, some have hypothesized that prevention curricula can remove barriers to learning and, thus, promote achievement. This study examined relationships between school levels of student substance use and risk and protective factors that predict adolescent problem behaviors and achievement test performance in Washington State. METHODS Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models were used to examine predictive associations between school-averaged levels of substance use and risk and protective factors and Washington State students’ likelihood of meeting achievement test standards on the Washington Assessment of Student Learning, statistically controlling for demographic and economic factors known to be associated with achievement. RESULTS Results indicate that levels of substance use and risk/protective factors predicted the academic test score performance of students. Many of these effects remained significant even after controlling for model covariates. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that implementing prevention programs that target empirically identified risk and protective factors have the potential to positively affect students’ academic achievement. PMID:26149305

Darwinian hydrology: can the methodology Charles Darwin pioneered help hydrologic science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.

2013-05-01

There have been repeated calls for a Darwinian approach to hydrologic science or for a synthesis of Darwinian and Newtonian approaches, to deepen understanding the hydrologic system in the larger landscape context, and so develop a better basis for predictions now and in an uncertain future. But what exactly makes a Darwinian approach to hydrology "Darwinian"? While there have now been a number of discussions of Darwinian approaches, many referencing Harte (2002), the term is potentially a source of confusion while its connections to Darwin remain allusive rather than explicit. Here we discuss the methods that Charles Darwin pioneered to understand a variety of complex systems in terms of their historical processes of change. We suggest that the Darwinian approach to hydrology follows his lead by focusing attention on the patterns of variation in populations, seeking hypotheses that explain these patterns in terms of the mechanisms and conditions that determine their historical development, using deduction and modeling to derive consequent hypotheses that follow from a proposed explanation, and critically testing these hypotheses against new observations. It is not sufficient to catalogue the patterns or predict them statistically. Nor is it sufficient for the explanations to amount to a "just-so" story not subject to critical analysis. Darwin's theories linked present-day variation to mechanisms that operated over history, and could be independently test and falsified by comparing new observations to the predictions of corollary hypotheses they generated. With a Darwinian framework in mind it is easy to see that a great deal of hydrologic research has already been done that contributes to a Darwinian hydrology - whether deliberately or not. The various heuristic methods that Darwin used to develop explanatory theories - extrapolating mechanisms, space for time substitution, and looking for signatures of history - have direct application in hydrologic science. Some are already in use, while others are not and could be used to develop new insights. Darwin sought explanatory theories that intelligibly connected disparate facts, that were testable and falsifiable, and that had fertile implications for further research. While a synthesis of the Darwinian and Newtonian approaches remains a goal, the Darwinian approach to hydrologic science has significant value of its own The Darwinian hydrology that has been conducted already has not been coordinated or linked into a general body of theory and knowledge, but the time is ccoming when this will be possible.

Attitudes towards informed consent, confidentiality, and substitute treatment decisions in southern African medical students: a case study from Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Hipshman, L

1999-08-01

This study explored the attitudes of biomedical science students (medical students) in a non-Western setting towards three medical ethics concepts that are based on fundamental Western culture ethical principles. A dichotomous (agree/disagree) response questionnaire was constructed using Western ethnocentric culture (WEC) based perspectives of informed consent, confidentiality, and substitute decision-making. Hypothesized WEC-Biased responses were assigned to the questionnaire's questions or propositions. A number of useful responses (169) were obtained from a large, cross-sectional, convenience sample of the MBChB students at the University of Zimbabwe Medical School. Statistical analysis described the differences in response patterns between the student's responses compared to the hypothesized WEC-Biased response. The effect of the nine independent variables on selected dependent variables (responses to certain questionnaire questions) was analyzed by stepwise logistic regression. Students concurred with the hypothesized WEC-Biased responses for two-thirds of the questionnaire items. This agreement included support for the role of legal advocacy in the substitute decision-making process. The students disagreed with the hypothesized WEC-Biased responses in several important medical ethics aspects. Most notably, the students indicated that persons with mental dysfunctions, as a class, were properly considered incompetent to make treatment decisions. None of the studied independent variables was often associated with students' responses, but training year was more frequently implicated than either ethnicity or gender. In order to develop internationally and culturally relevant medical ethics standards, non-Western perspectives ought to be acknowledged and incorporated. Two main areas for further efforts include: curriculum development in ethics reasoning and related clinical (medico-legal) decision-making processes that would be relevant to medical students from various cultures, and; the testing of models that could increase legal system input in the clinical process in societies with limited jurisprudence resources.

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Author Self-disclosure Compared with Pharmaceutical Company Reporting of Physician Payments.

PubMed

Alhamoud, Hani A; Dudum, Ramzi; Young, Heather A; Choi, Brian G

2016-01-01

Industry manufacturers are required by the Sunshine Act to disclose payments to physicians. These data recently became publicly available, but some manufacturers prereleased their data since 2009. We tested the hypotheses that there would be discrepancies between manufacturers' and physicians' disclosures. The financial disclosures by authors of all 39 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association guidelines between 2009 and 2012 were matched to the public disclosures of 15 pharmaceutical companies during that same period. Duplicate authors across guidelines were assessed independently. Per the guidelines, payments <$10,000 are modest and ≥$10,000 are significant. Agreement was determined using a κ statistic; Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney tests were used to detect statistical significance. The overall agreement between author and company disclosure was poor (κ = 0.238). There was a significant difference in error rates of disclosure among companies and authors (P = .019). Of disclosures by authors, companies failed to match them with an error rate of 71.6%. Of disclosures by companies, authors failed to match them with an error rate of 54.7%. Our analysis shows a concerning level of disagreement between guideline authors' and pharmaceutical companies' disclosures. Without ability for physicians to challenge reports, it is unclear whether these discrepancies reflect undisclosed relationships with industry or errors in reporting, and caution should be advised in interpretation of data from the Sunshine Act. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-01-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is “statistically significant.” On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are “insignificant.” Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

The bucket and the searchlight: formulating and testing risk hypotheses about the weediness and invasiveness potential of transgenic crops.

PubMed

Raybould, Alan

2010-01-01

The bucket and the searchlight are metaphors for opposing theories of the growth of scientific knowledge. The bucket theory proposes that knowledge is gained by observing the world without preconceptions, and that knowledge emerges from the accumulation of observations that support a hypothesis. There are many problems with this theory, the most serious of which is that it does not appear to offer a means to distinguish between the many hypotheses that could explain a particular set of observations. The searchlight theory proposes that preconceptions are unavoidable and that knowledge advances through the improvement of our preconceptions - our hypotheses - by continuous criticism and revision. A hypothesis is a searchlight that illuminates observations that test the hypothesis and reveal its flaws, and knowledge thereby increases through the elimination of false hypotheses. Research into the risks posed by the cultivation of transgenic crops often appears to apply the bucket theory; many data are produced, but knowledge of risk is not advanced. Application of the searchlight theory, whereby risk assessments test hypotheses that transgenic crops will not be harmful, seems to offer a better way to characterise risk. The effectiveness of an environmental risk assessment should not be measured by the size of the bucket of observations on a transgenic crop, but by the power of the risk hypothesis searchlights to clarify the risks that may arise from cultivation of that crop. These points are illustrated by examples of hypotheses that could be tested to assess the risks from transgenic crops and their hybrids becoming weeds or invading non-agricultural habitats. © ISBR, EDP Sciences, 2011.

Anxiety/Depression and Hostility/Suspiciousness in Adolescent Boys: Testing Adherence to Honor Code as Mediator of Callousness and Attachment Insecurity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somech, Lior Y.; Elizur, Yoel

2012-01-01

Research of psychological distress (PD) needs to differentiate between anxiety/depression and hostility/suspiciousness, which are associated with different motivational systems. In this study, structural equation modeling was used to test two hypothesized models for the prediction of each facet of PD. Hypotheses were proposed about the effects of…

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia reactivity of internet addiction abusers in negative and positive emotional states using film clips stimulation.

PubMed

Hsieh, Dai-Ling; Hsiao, Tzu-Chien

2016-07-04

People with internet addiction (IA) suffer from mental, physical, social, and occupational problems. IA includes psychological and physiological syndromes, and among the syndromes, emotion was suggested important mental and physiological expressions of IA. However, few physiologically emotional characters of IA were investigated. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity was a good link between IA and emotion, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) gained from ANS was hypothesized related to IA. An emotional induction experiment using negative and positive emotional films was conducted to validate the hypotheses. Thirty-four participants recruited from college were classified into high-risk IA group (HIA) and low-risk IA group (LIA). The respiratory signals, ECG signals, and self-assessed emotional intensity were acquired. The relationship and difference between IA and RSA was tested using descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The RSA values of HIA were lower than those of LIA both before and after the induction of positive and negative emotions. When participants experienced a negative emotion (anger or fear), their RSA values declined; the decline for HIA was greater than that for LIA. The RSA values of HIA participants before induction of fear, happiness, or surprise, statistically significantly differed from that after induction of those emotions, with p values of 0.007, 0.04 and 0.01 respectively. The difference between the changes in RSA values upon the induction of surprise of HIA and LIA was statistically significant difference (p = 0.03). The interaction between two IA groups among emotional induction states was statistically significant difference. RSA value here was the main variable that reflected ANS activity, and especially vagus nerve regulation. The results revealed that the changes in RSA values were biologically significantly different between HIA and LIA, especially when sadness, happiness, or surprise was induced. HIA people exhibited stronger RSA reactivity following negative emotion than LIA people, but the RSA reactivity following positive emotion was weaker. This study provides more physiological information about IA and assists further investigation on the regulation of the ANS for IA abusers. The results will benefit the further application, early detection, therapy, and even early prevention. Clinical trial registration details This study was approved by the Institution Review Board of the National Taiwan University Hospital, Hsinchu Branch (Hsinchu, Taiwan), under the research project: A study of interactions between cognition, emotion and physiology (contract no.100IRB-32).

Structural Models that Manage IT Portfolio Affecting Business Value of Enterprise Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamogawa, Takaaki

This paper examines the structural relationships between Information Technology (IT) governance and Enterprise Architecture (EA), with the objective of enhancing business value in the enterprise society. Structural models consisting of four related hypotheses reveal the relationship between IT governance and EA in the improvement of business values. We statistically examined the hypotheses by analyzing validated questionnaire items from respondents within firms listed on the Japanese stock exchange who were qualified to answer them. We concluded that firms which have organizational ability controlled by IT governance are more likely to deliver business value based on IT portfolio management.

Integrating ecosystem studies: A Bayesian comparison of hypotheses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, Milo D.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Bodkin, James L.; Holland-Bartels, Leslie E.; Funk, F.; Quinn, T.J.; Heifetz, J.; Ianelli, J.N.; Powers, J.E.; Schweigert, J.F.; Sullivan, P.J.; Zhang, C.-I.

1998-01-01

Ecosystem studies are difficult to interpret because of the complexity and number of pathways that may affect a phenomenon of interest. It is not possible to study all aspects of a problem; thus subjective judgment is required to weigh what has been observed in the context of components that were not studied but may have been important. This subjective judgment is usually a poorly documented and ad hoc addendum to a statistical analysis of the data. We present a Bayesian methodology for documenting, quantifying, and incorporating these necessary subjective elements into an ecosystem study. The end product of this methodology is the probability of each of the competing hypotheses. As an example, this method is applied to an ecosystem study designed to discriminate among competing hypotheses for a low abundance of sea otters at a previously oiled site in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Capturing farm diversity with hypothesis-based typologies: An innovative methodological framework for farming system typology development

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Stéphanie; Timler, Carl J.; Michalscheck, Mirja; Paas, Wim; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Tittonell, Pablo; Andersson, Jens A.; Groot, Jeroen C. J.

2018-01-01

Creating typologies is a way to summarize the large heterogeneity of smallholder farming systems into a few farm types. Various methods exist, commonly using statistical analysis, to create these typologies. We demonstrate that the methodological decisions on data collection, variable selection, data-reduction and clustering techniques can bear a large impact on the typology results. We illustrate the effects of analysing the diversity from different angles, using different typology objectives and different hypotheses, on typology creation by using an example from Zambia’s Eastern Province. Five separate typologies were created with principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), based on three different expert-informed hypotheses. The greatest overlap between typologies was observed for the larger, wealthier farm types but for the remainder of the farms there were no clear overlaps between typologies. Based on these results, we argue that the typology development should be guided by a hypothesis on the local agriculture features and the drivers and mechanisms of differentiation among farming systems, such as biophysical and socio-economic conditions. That hypothesis is based both on the typology objective and on prior expert knowledge and theories of the farm diversity in the study area. We present a methodological framework that aims to integrate participatory and statistical methods for hypothesis-based typology construction. This is an iterative process whereby the results of the statistical analysis are compared with the reality of the target population as hypothesized by the local experts. Using a well-defined hypothesis and the presented methodological framework, which consolidates the hypothesis through local expert knowledge for the creation of typologies, warrants development of less subjective and more contextualized quantitative farm typologies. PMID:29763422

Capturing farm diversity with hypothesis-based typologies: An innovative methodological framework for farming system typology development.

PubMed

Alvarez, Stéphanie; Timler, Carl J; Michalscheck, Mirja; Paas, Wim; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Tittonell, Pablo; Andersson, Jens A; Groot, Jeroen C J

2018-01-01

Creating typologies is a way to summarize the large heterogeneity of smallholder farming systems into a few farm types. Various methods exist, commonly using statistical analysis, to create these typologies. We demonstrate that the methodological decisions on data collection, variable selection, data-reduction and clustering techniques can bear a large impact on the typology results. We illustrate the effects of analysing the diversity from different angles, using different typology objectives and different hypotheses, on typology creation by using an example from Zambia's Eastern Province. Five separate typologies were created with principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), based on three different expert-informed hypotheses. The greatest overlap between typologies was observed for the larger, wealthier farm types but for the remainder of the farms there were no clear overlaps between typologies. Based on these results, we argue that the typology development should be guided by a hypothesis on the local agriculture features and the drivers and mechanisms of differentiation among farming systems, such as biophysical and socio-economic conditions. That hypothesis is based both on the typology objective and on prior expert knowledge and theories of the farm diversity in the study area. We present a methodological framework that aims to integrate participatory and statistical methods for hypothesis-based typology construction. This is an iterative process whereby the results of the statistical analysis are compared with the reality of the target population as hypothesized by the local experts. Using a well-defined hypothesis and the presented methodological framework, which consolidates the hypothesis through local expert knowledge for the creation of typologies, warrants development of less subjective and more contextualized quantitative farm typologies.

Revision of the Malagasy Camponotus edmondi species group (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Formicinae): integrating qualitative morphology and multivariate morphometric analysis.

PubMed

Rakotonirina, Jean Claude; Csősz, Sándor; Fisher, Brian L

2016-01-01

The Malagasy Camponotus edmondi species group is revised based on both qualitative morphological traits and multivariate analysis of continuous morphometric data. To minimize the effect of the scaling properties of diverse traits due to worker caste polymorphism, and to achieve the desired near-linearity of data, morphometric analyses were done only on minor workers. The majority of traits exhibit broken scaling on head size, dividing Camponotus workers into two discrete subcastes, minors and majors. This broken scaling prevents the application of algorithms that uses linear combination of data to the entire dataset, hence only minor workers were analyzed statistically. The elimination of major workers resulted in linearity and the data meet required assumptions. However, morphometric ratios for the subsets of minor and major workers were used in species descriptions and redefinitions. Prior species hypotheses and the goodness of clusters were tested on raw data by confirmatory linear discriminant analysis. Due to the small sample size available for some species, a factor known to reduce statistical reliability, hypotheses generated by exploratory analyses were tested with extreme care and species delimitations were inferred via the combined evidence of both qualitative (morphology and biology) and quantitative data. Altogether, fifteen species are recognized, of which 11 are new to science: Camponotus alamaina sp. n. , Camponotus androy sp. n. , Camponotus bevohitra sp. n. , Camponotus galoko sp. n. , Camponotus matsilo sp. n. , Camponotus mifaka sp. n. , Camponotus orombe sp. n. , Camponotus tafo sp. n. , Camponotus tratra sp. n. , Camponotus varatra sp. n. , and Camponotus zavo sp. n. Four species are redescribed: Camponotus echinoploides Forel, Camponotus edmondi André, Camponotus ethicus Forel, and Camponotus robustus Roger. Camponotus edmondi ernesti Forel, syn. n. is synonymized under Camponotus edmondi . This revision also includes an identification key to species for both minor and major castes, information on geographic distribution and biology, taxonomic discussions, and descriptions of intraspecific variation. Traditional taxonomy and multivariate morphometric analysis are independent sources of information which, in combination, allow more precise species delimitation. Moreover, quantitative characters included in identification keys improve accuracy of determination in difficult cases.

Revision of the Malagasy Camponotus edmondi species group (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Formicinae): integrating qualitative morphology and multivariate morphometric analysis

PubMed Central

Rakotonirina, Jean Claude; Csősz, Sándor; Fisher, Brian L.

2016-01-01

Abstract The Malagasy Camponotus edmondi species group is revised based on both qualitative morphological traits and multivariate analysis of continuous morphometric data. To minimize the effect of the scaling properties of diverse traits due to worker caste polymorphism, and to achieve the desired near-linearity of data, morphometric analyses were done only on minor workers. The majority of traits exhibit broken scaling on head size, dividing Camponotus workers into two discrete subcastes, minors and majors. This broken scaling prevents the application of algorithms that uses linear combination of data to the entire dataset, hence only minor workers were analyzed statistically. The elimination of major workers resulted in linearity and the data meet required assumptions. However, morphometric ratios for the subsets of minor and major workers were used in species descriptions and redefinitions. Prior species hypotheses and the goodness of clusters were tested on raw data by confirmatory linear discriminant analysis. Due to the small sample size available for some species, a factor known to reduce statistical reliability, hypotheses generated by exploratory analyses were tested with extreme care and species delimitations were inferred via the combined evidence of both qualitative (morphology and biology) and quantitative data. Altogether, fifteen species are recognized, of which 11 are new to science: Camponotus alamaina sp. n., Camponotus androy sp. n., Camponotus bevohitra sp. n., Camponotus galoko sp. n., Camponotus matsilo sp. n., Camponotus mifaka sp. n., Camponotus orombe sp. n., Camponotus tafo sp. n., Camponotus tratra sp. n., Camponotus varatra sp. n., and Camponotus zavo sp. n. Four species are redescribed: Camponotus echinoploides Forel, Camponotus edmondi André, Camponotus ethicus Forel, and Camponotus robustus Roger. Camponotus edmondi ernesti Forel, syn. n. is synonymized under Camponotus edmondi. This revision also includes an identification key to species for both minor and major castes, information on geographic distribution and biology, taxonomic discussions, and descriptions of intraspecific variation. Traditional taxonomy and multivariate morphometric analysis are independent sources of information which, in combination, allow more precise species delimitation. Moreover, quantitative characters included in identification keys improve accuracy of determination in difficult cases. PMID:28050160

Determinants of the variations in self-reported health status among recent and more established immigrants in Canada.

PubMed

Subedi, Rajendra Prasad; Rosenberg, Mark Warren

2014-08-01

Studies have shown that immigrants are normally in better health on arrival compared to their Canadian-born counterparts. However, the health conditions of new immigrants deteriorate after a few years of their arrival in Canada. This phenomenon is popularly termed the "healthy immigrant effect" (HIE) in the immigrant health literature. Although different hypotheses have been proposed to understand HIE, the causes are subject to ongoing discussion. Unlike previous studies, this study explored the possible causes behind the variations in the health status of recent and more established immigrants comparing 2001 and 2010 Canadian Community Health Surveys (CCHS). Four different hypotheses - namely lifestyle change, barriers to health care services, poor social determinants of health, and work related stress - were tested to understand variations in health status. The study concludes that there is a statistically significant difference in the socioeconomic characteristics and health outcomes of immigrants having less than and more than 10 years of residency in Canada. Logistic regression models show that the health conditions of immigrants are associated with age, sex, ethnic origin, smoking habit, Body Mass Index (BMI), total household income, number of consultations made with a family doctor per year and work related stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new multidimensional measure of personal resilience and its use: Chinese nurse resilience, organizational socialization and career success.

PubMed

Wei, Wei; Taormina, Robert J

2014-12-01

This study refined the concept of resilience and developed four valid and reliable subscales to measure resilience, namely, Determination, Endurance, Adaptability and Recuperability. The study also assessed their hypothesized relationships with six antecedent variables (worry, physiological needs satisfaction, organizational socialization, conscientiousness, future orientation and Chinese values) and with one outcome variable (nurses' career success). The four new 10-item subscale measures of personal resilience were constructed based on their operational definitions and tested for their validity and reliability. All items were included in a questionnaire completed by 244 full-time nurses at two hospitals in China. All four measures demonstrated concurrent validity and had high reliabilities (from 0.74 to 0.78). The hypothesized correlations with the personality and organizational variables were statistically significant and in the predicted directions. Regression analyses confirmed these relationships, which explained 25-32% of the variance for the four resilience facets and 27% of the variance for the nurses' career success. The results provided strong evidence that organizational socialization facilitates resilience, that resilience engenders career success and that identifying the four resilience facets permits a more complete understanding of personal resilience, which could benefit nurses, help nurse administrators with their work and also help in treating patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of the Biology Card Sorting Task to Measure Conceptual Expertise in Biology

PubMed Central

Smith, Julia I.; Combs, Elijah D.; Nagami, Paul H.; Alto, Valerie M.; Goh, Henry G.; Gourdet, Muryam A. A.; Hough, Christina M.; Nickell, Ashley E.; Peer, Adrian G.; Coley, John D.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

2013-01-01

There are widespread aspirations to focus undergraduate biology education on teaching students to think conceptually like biologists; however, there is a dearth of assessment tools designed to measure progress from novice to expert biological conceptual thinking. We present the development of a novel assessment tool, the Biology Card Sorting Task, designed to probe how individuals organize their conceptual knowledge of biology. While modeled on tasks from cognitive psychology, this task is unique in its design to test two hypothesized conceptual frameworks for the organization of biological knowledge: 1) a surface feature organization focused on organism type and 2) a deep feature organization focused on fundamental biological concepts. In this initial investigation of the Biology Card Sorting Task, each of six analytical measures showed statistically significant differences when used to compare the card sorting results of putative biological experts (biology faculty) and novices (non–biology major undergraduates). Consistently, biology faculty appeared to sort based on hypothesized deep features, while non–biology majors appeared to sort based on either surface features or nonhypothesized organizational frameworks. Results suggest that this novel task is robust in distinguishing populations of biology experts and biology novices and may be an adaptable tool for tracking emerging biology conceptual expertise. PMID:24297290

Managed care, vertical integration strategies and hospital performance.

PubMed

Wang, B B; Wan, T T; Clement, J; Begun, J

2001-09-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the association of managed care with hospital vertical integration strategies, as well as to observe the relationships of different types of vertical integration with hospital efficiency and financial performance. The sample consists of 363 California short-term acute care hospitals in 1994. Linear structure equation modeling is used to test six hypotheses derived from the strategic adaptation model. Several organizational and market factors are controlled statistically. Results suggest that managed care is a driving force for hospital vertical integration. In terms of performance, hospitals that are integrated with physician groups and provide outpatient services (backward integration) have better operating margins, returns on assets, and net cash flows (p < 0.01). These hospitals are not, however, likely to show greater productivity. Forward integration with a long-term-care facility, on the other hand, is positively and significantly related to hospital productivity (p < 0.001). Forward integration is negatively related to financial performance (p < 0.05), however, opposite to the direction hypothesized. Health executives should be responsive to the growth of managed care in their local market and should probably consider providing more backward integrated services rather than forward integrated services in order to improve the hospital's financial performance in today's competitive health care market.

Chemical-gene interaction networks and causal reasoning for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluating the potential human health and ecological risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures in the environment is one of the main challenges of chemical safety assessment and environmental protection. There is a need for approaches that can help to integrate chemical monitoring and biological effects data to evaluate risks associated with chemicals present in the environment. Here, we used prior knowledge about chemical-gene interactions to develop a knowledge assembly model for detected chemicals at five locations near the North Branch and Chisago wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in the St. Croix River Basin, MN and WI. The assembly model was used to generate hypotheses about the biological impacts of the chemicals at each location. The hypotheses were tested using empirical hepatic gene expression data from fathead minnows exposed for 12 d at each location. Empirical gene expression data were also mapped to the assembly models to evaluate the likelihood of a chemical contributing to the observed biological responses using richness and concordance statistics. The prior knowledge approach was able predict the observed biological pathways impacted at one site but not the other. Atrazine was identified as a potential contributor to the observed gene expression responses at a location upstream of the North Branch WTTP. Four chemicals were identified as contributors to the observed biological responses at the effluent and downstream o

Population continuity vs. discontinuity revisited: dental affinities among late Paleolithic through Christian-era Nubians.

PubMed

Irish, Joel D

2005-11-01

The present study revisits a subject that has been a source of long-standing bioarchaeological contention, namely, estimation of Nubian population origins and affinities. Using the Arizona State University dental anthropology system, frequencies of 36 crown, root, and intraoral osseous discrete traits in 12 late Pleistocene through early historic Nubian samples were recorded and analyzed. Specifically, intersample phenetic affinities, and an indication of which traits are most important in driving this variation, were determined through the application of correspondence analysis and the mean measure of divergence distance statistic. The results support previous work by the author and others indicating that population discontinuity, in the form of replacement or significant gene flow into an existing gene pool, occurred sometime after the Pleistocene. This analysis now suggests that the break occurred before the Final Neolithic. Samples from the latter through Christian periods exhibit relative homogeneity, which implies overall post-Pleistocene diachronic and regional population continuity. Yet there are several perceptible trends among these latter samples that: 1) are consistent with documented Nubian population history, 2) enable the testing of several existing peopling hypotheses, and 3) allow the formulation of new hypotheses, including a suggestion of two post-Pleistocene subgroups predicated on an age-based sample dichotomy. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Oral microbial community assembly under the influence of periodontitis.

PubMed

Chen, Hongju; Peng, Shuting; Dai, Lin; Zou, Quan; Yi, Bin; Yang, Xianghong; Ma, Zhanshan Sam

2017-01-01

Several ecological hypotheses (e.g., specific plaque, non-specific plaque and keystone pathogen) regarding the etiology of periodontitis have been proposed since the 1990s, most of which have been centered on the concept of dysbiosis associated with periodontitis. Nevertheless, none of the existing hypotheses have presented mechanistic interpretations on how and why dysbiosis actually occurs. Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity offers a powerful null model to test hypothesis regarding the mechanism of community assembly and diversity maintenance from the metagenomic sequencing data, which can help to understand the forces that shape the community dynamics such as dysbiosis. Here we reanalyze the dataset from Abusleme et al.'s comparative study of the oral microbial communities from periodontitis patients and healthy individuals. Our study demonstrates that 14 out of 61 communities (23%) passed the neutrality test, a percentage significantly higher than the previous reported neutrality rate of 1% in human microbiome (Li & Ma 2016, Scientific Reports). This suggests that, while the niche selection may play a predominant role in the assembly and diversity maintenance in oral microbiome, the effect of neutral dynamics may not be ignored. However, no statistically significant differences in the neutrality passing rates were detected between the periodontitis and healthy treatments with Fisher's exact probability test and multiple testing corrections, suggesting that the mechanism of community assembly is robust against disturbances such as periodontitis. In addition, our study confirmed previous finding that periodontitis patients exhibited higher biodiversity. These findings suggest that while periodontitis may significantly change the community composition measured by diversity (i.e., the exhibition or 'phenotype' of community assembly), it does not seem to cause the 'mutation' of the 'genotype" (mechanism) of community assembly. We argue that the 'phenotypic' changes explain the observed link (not necessarily causal) between periodontitis and community dysbiosis, which is certainly worthy of further investigation.

Peripatric speciation of an endemic species driven by Pleistocene climate change: The case of the Mexican prairie dog (Cynomys mexicanus).

PubMed

Castellanos-Morales, Gabriela; Gámez, Niza; Castillo-Gámez, Reyna A; Eguiarte, Luis E

2016-01-01

The hypothesis that endemic species could have originated by the isolation and divergence of peripheral populations of widespread species can be tested through the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) and statistical phylogeography. The joint use of these tools provides complementary perspectives on historical dynamics and allows testing hypotheses regarding the origin of endemic taxa. We used this approach to infer the historical processes that have influenced the origin of a species endemic to the Mexican Plateau (Cynomys mexicanus) and its divergence from a widespread ancestor (Cynomys ludovicianus), and to test whether this endemic species originated through peripatric speciation. We obtained genetic data for 295 individuals for two species of black-tailed prairie dogs (C. ludovicianus and C. mexicanus). Genetic data consisted of mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region), and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. We estimated dates of divergence between species and between lineages within each species and performed ecological niche modelling (Present, Last Glacial Maximum and Last Interglacial) to determine changes in the distribution range of both species during the Pleistocene. Finally, we used Bayesian inference methods (DIYABC) to test different hypotheses regarding the divergence and demographic history of these species. Data supported the hypothesis of the origin of C. mexicanus from a peripheral population isolated during the Pleistocene [∼230,000 years ago (0.1-0.43 Ma 95% HPD)], with a Pleistocene-Holocene (∼9,000-11,000 years ago) population expansion (∼10-fold increase in population size). We identified the presence of two possible refugia in the southern area of the distribution range of C. ludovicianus and another, consistent with the distribution range of C. mexicanus. Our analyses suggest that Pleistocene climate change had a strong impact in the distribution of these species, promoting peripatric speciation for the origin of C. mexicanus and lineage divergence within C. ludovicianus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oral microbial community assembly under the influence of periodontitis

PubMed Central

Chen, Hongju; Peng, Shuting; Dai, Lin; Zou, Quan; Yi, Bin; Yang, Xianghong

2017-01-01

Several ecological hypotheses (e.g., specific plaque, non-specific plaque and keystone pathogen) regarding the etiology of periodontitis have been proposed since the 1990s, most of which have been centered on the concept of dysbiosis associated with periodontitis. Nevertheless, none of the existing hypotheses have presented mechanistic interpretations on how and why dysbiosis actually occurs. Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity offers a powerful null model to test hypothesis regarding the mechanism of community assembly and diversity maintenance from the metagenomic sequencing data, which can help to understand the forces that shape the community dynamics such as dysbiosis. Here we reanalyze the dataset from Abusleme et al.’s comparative study of the oral microbial communities from periodontitis patients and healthy individuals. Our study demonstrates that 14 out of 61 communities (23%) passed the neutrality test, a percentage significantly higher than the previous reported neutrality rate of 1% in human microbiome (Li & Ma 2016, Scientific Reports). This suggests that, while the niche selection may play a predominant role in the assembly and diversity maintenance in oral microbiome, the effect of neutral dynamics may not be ignored. However, no statistically significant differences in the neutrality passing rates were detected between the periodontitis and healthy treatments with Fisher’s exact probability test and multiple testing corrections, suggesting that the mechanism of community assembly is robust against disturbances such as periodontitis. In addition, our study confirmed previous finding that periodontitis patients exhibited higher biodiversity. These findings suggest that while periodontitis may significantly change the community composition measured by diversity (i.e., the exhibition or ‘phenotype’ of community assembly), it does not seem to cause the ‘mutation’ of the ‘genotype” (mechanism) of community assembly. We argue that the ‘phenotypic’ changes explain the observed link (not necessarily causal) between periodontitis and community dysbiosis, which is certainly worthy of further investigation. PMID:28813450

Phenoscape: Identifying Candidate Genes for Evolutionary Phenotypes

PubMed Central

Edmunds, Richard C.; Su, Baofeng; Balhoff, James P.; Eames, B. Frank; Dahdul, Wasila M.; Lapp, Hilmar; Lundberg, John G.; Vision, Todd J.; Dunham, Rex A.; Mabee, Paula M.; Westerfield, Monte

2016-01-01

Phenotypes resulting from mutations in genetic model organisms can help reveal candidate genes for evolutionarily important phenotypic changes in related taxa. Although testing candidate gene hypotheses experimentally in nonmodel organisms is typically difficult, ontology-driven information systems can help generate testable hypotheses about developmental processes in experimentally tractable organisms. Here, we tested candidate gene hypotheses suggested by expert use of the Phenoscape Knowledgebase, specifically looking for genes that are candidates responsible for evolutionarily interesting phenotypes in the ostariophysan fishes that bear resemblance to mutant phenotypes in zebrafish. For this, we searched ZFIN for genetic perturbations that result in either loss of basihyal element or loss of scales phenotypes, because these are the ancestral phenotypes observed in catfishes (Siluriformes). We tested the identified candidate genes by examining their endogenous expression patterns in the channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus. The experimental results were consistent with the hypotheses that these features evolved through disruption in developmental pathways at, or upstream of, brpf1 and eda/edar for the ancestral losses of basihyal element and scales, respectively. These results demonstrate that ontological annotations of the phenotypic effects of genetic alterations in model organisms, when aggregated within a knowledgebase, can be used effectively to generate testable, and useful, hypotheses about evolutionary changes in morphology. PMID:26500251

Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling.

PubMed

Anklam, Charles; Kirby, Adam; Sharevski, Filipo; Dietz, J Eric

2015-01-01

Active shooting violence at confined settings, such as educational institutions, poses serious security concerns to public safety. In studying the effects of active shooter scenarios, the common denominator associated with all events, regardless of reason/intent for shooter motives, or type of weapons used, was the location chosen and time expended between the beginning of the event and its culmination. This in turn directly correlates to number of casualties incurred in any given event. The longer the event protracts, the more casualties are incurred until law enforcement or another barrier can react and culminate the situation. Using AnyLogic technology, devise modeling scenarios to test multiple hypotheses against free-agent modeling simulation to determine the best method to reduce casualties associated with active shooter scenarios. Test four possible scenarios of responding to active shooter in a public school setting using agent-based computer modeling techniques-scenario 1: basic scenario where no access control or any type of security is used within the school; scenario 2, scenario assumes that concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent of the work force) are present in the school; scenario 3, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer; scenario 4, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer and concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent) present in the school. Statistical data from modeling scenarios indicating which tested hypothesis resulted in fewer casualties and quicker culmination of event. The use of AnyLogic proved the initial hypothesis that a decrease on response time to an active shooter scenario directly reduced victim casualties. Modeling tests show statistically significant fewer casualties in scenarios where on scene armed responders such as resource officers and concealed carry personnel were present.

Comparison of the effects block and traditional schedules have on the number of students who are proficient on the Biology End-of-Course Test in forty public high schools in the state of North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonner, Tonia Anita

This study examined the difference between the number of overall students, African-American students, and students with disabilities on a semester 4 x 4 block schedule who were proficient on the North Carolina Biology End-of-Course Test and the number of the same group of students on a traditional 45-50 minute yearlong schedule who were proficient on the NC Biology End-of-Course Test in the state of North Carolina during the 2009--2010 school year. A causal-comparative design was used and three null hypotheses were tested using chi-square analysis. Archival data was used. The results showed that there was a significant association between the number of the overall students and African-American students who were proficient on the NC Biology EOC Test when taught biology on a 4 x 4 semester block versus a traditional schedule. However, no statistically significant relationship existed between the number of students with disabilities who were educated on 4 x 4 semester block schedule and those students with disabilities who were educated on a six or seven period traditional schedule in biology. Suggestions for further research are included.

Trends in performance on the psychiatry resident-in-training examination (PRITE®): 10 years of data from a single institution.

PubMed

Cooke, Brian K; Garvan, Cynthia; Hobbs, Jacqueline A

2013-07-01

The purpose of this study was to examine trends in the Psychiatry Resident-In-Training Examination (PRITE®) scores at one institution from 2001 to 2010. The authors hypothesized that two factors, the 2003 implementation of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) duty-hour restrictions and the residency program's 2008 restructuring of its curriculum to a half-day per week of didactics, would lead to improved scores. Residents in the general psychiatry program at the University of Florida College of Medicine from 2001 to 2010 were included in this study. To examine the effect of the 2003 ACGME duty-hours change, the authors compared test results from 2001-2002 and 2003-2010. To examine the effect of the 2008 didactic restructuring, they compared test results from 2001-2007 and 2008-2010. There were 288 PRITE test scores from 2001 to 2010. The authors did not find a statistical difference between test results before and after the 2003 implementation of ACGME duty-hour restrictions or between test results before and after the 2008 restructuring of residency didactics. The hypothesis was rejected. The results of the literature review propose that examination scores are affected by other elements of residency training.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

EFFICIENTLY ESTABLISHING CONCEPTS OF INFERENTIAL STATISTICS AND HYPOTHESIS DECISION MAKING THROUGH CONTEXTUALLY CONTROLLED EQUIVALENCE CLASSES

PubMed Central

Fienup, Daniel M; Critchfield, Thomas S

2010-01-01

Computerized lessons that reflect stimulus equivalence principles were used to teach college students concepts related to inferential statistics and hypothesis decision making. Lesson 1 taught participants concepts related to inferential statistics, and Lesson 2 taught them to base hypothesis decisions on a scientific hypothesis and the direction of an effect. Lesson 3 taught the conditional influence of inferential statistics over decisions regarding the scientific and null hypotheses. Participants entered the study with low scores on the targeted skills and left the study demonstrating a high level of accuracy on these skills, which involved mastering more relations than were taught formally. This study illustrates the efficiency of equivalence-based instruction in establishing academic skills in sophisticated learners. PMID:21358904

Why Bayesian Psychologists Should Change the Way They Use the Bayes Factor.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van Kooten, Pascal; Hulsker, Koenraad

2016-01-01

The discussion following Bem's ( 2011 ) psi research highlights that applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research are not without problems. The first problem is the omission to translate subjective prior knowledge into subjective prior distributions. In the words of Savage ( 1961 ): "they make the Bayesian omelet without breaking the Bayesian egg." The second problem occurs if the Bayesian egg is not broken: the omission to choose default prior distributions such that the ensuing inferences are well calibrated. The third problem is the adherence to inadequate rules for the interpretation of the size of the Bayes factor. The current paper will elaborate these problems and show how to avoid them using the basic hypotheses and statistical model used in the first experiment described in Bem ( 2011 ). It will be argued that a thorough investigation of these problems in the context of more encompassing hypotheses and statistical models is called for if Bayesian psychologists want to add a well-founded Bayes factor to the tool kit of psychological researchers.

Forest clearing in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A study of patterns over space and time

PubMed Central

Pan, William; Carr, David; Barbieri, Alisson; Bilsborrow, Richard; Suchindran, Chirayath

2010-01-01

This study tests four hypotheses related to forest clearing over time in Ecuador’s northern Amazon: (1) a larger increase in population over time on a farm (finca) leads to more deforestation; (2) rates of forest clearing surrounding four primary reference communities differ (spatial heterogeneity); (3) fincas farther from towns/communities experience lower rates of forest clearing over time; and (4) forest clearing differs by finca settlement cohort, viz., by year of establishment of the finca. In this paper, we examine the relationship between forest clearing and key variables over time, and compare three statistical models—OLS, random effects, and spatial regression—to test hypotheses. Descriptive analyses indicate that 7–15% of forest area was cleared on fincas between 1990 and 1999; that more recently established fincas experienced more rapid forest clearing; and that population size and forest clearing are both related to distance from a major community. Controlling for key variables, model results indicate that an increase in population size is significantly related to more forest clearing; rates of forest clearing around the four major communities are not significantly different; distances separating fincas and communities are not significantly related to deforestation; and deforestation rates are higher among more recently established fincas. Key policy implications include the importance of reducing population growth and momentum through measures such as improving information about and provision of family planning services; increasing the low level of girls education to delay and reduce fertility; and expanding credit and agricultural extension services to increase agricultural intensification. PMID:20703367

Psychometrics of chronic liver disease questionnaire in Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients

PubMed Central

Zhou, Kai-Na; Zhang, Min; Wu, Qian; Ji, Zhen-Hao; Zhang, Xiao-Mei; Zhuang, Gui-Hua

2013-01-01

AIM: To evaluate psychometrics of the Chinese (mainland) chronic liver disease questionnaire (CLDQ) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of 460 Chinese patients with CHB was selected from the Outpatient Department of the Eighth Hospital of Xi’an, including CHB (CHB without cirrhosis) (n = 323) and CHB-related cirrhosis (n = 137). The psychometrics includes reliability, validity and sensitivity. Internal consistency reliability was measured using Cronbach’s α. Convergent and discriminant validity was evaluated by item-scale correlation. Factorial validity was explored by principal component analysis with varimax rotation. Sensitivity was assessed using Cohen’s effect size (ES), and independent sample t test between CHB and CHB-related cirrhosis groups and between alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normal and abnormal groups after stratifying the disease (CHB and CHB-related cirrhosis). RESULTS: Internal consistency reliability of the CLDQ was 0.83 (range: 0.65-0.90). Most of the hypothesized item-scale correlations were 0.40 or over, and all of such hypothesized correlations were higher than the alternative ones, indicating satisfactory convergent and discriminant validity. Six factors were extracted after varimax rotation from the 29 items of CLDQ. The eligible Cohen’s ES with statistically significant independent sample t test was found in the overall CLDQ and abdominal, systematic, activity scales (CHB vs CHB-related cirrhosis), and in the overall CLDQ and abdominal scale in the stratification of patients with CHB (ALT normal vs abnormal). CONCLUSION: The CLDQ has acceptable reliability, validity and sensitivity in Chinese (mainland) patients with CHB. PMID:23801844

Balancing Flood Risk and Water Supply in California: Policy Search Combining Short-Term Forecast Ensembles and Groundwater Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J. D.; Steinschneider, S.; Nayak, M. A.

2017-12-01

Short-term weather forecasts are not codified into the operating policies of federal, multi-purpose reservoirs, despite their potential to improve service provision. This is particularly true for facilities that provide flood protection and water supply, since the potential flood damages are often too severe to accept the risk of inaccurate forecasts. Instead, operators must maintain empty storage capacity to mitigate flood risk, even if the system is currently in drought, as occurred in California from 2012-2016. This study investigates the potential for forecast-informed operating rules to improve water supply efficiency while maintaining flood protection, combining state-of-the-art weather hindcasts with a novel tree-based policy optimization framework. We hypothesize that forecasts need only accurately predict the occurrence of a storm, rather than its intensity, to be effective in regions like California where wintertime, synoptic-scale storms dominate the flood regime. We also investigate the potential for downstream groundwater injection to improve the utility of forecasts. These hypotheses are tested in a case study of Folsom Reservoir on the American River. Because available weather hindcasts are relatively short (10-20 years), we propose a new statistical framework to develop synthetic forecasts to assess the risk associated with inaccurate forecasts. The efficiency of operating policies is tested across a range of scenarios that include varying forecast skill and additional groundwater pumping capacity. Results suggest that the combined use of groundwater storage and short-term weather forecasts can substantially improve the tradeoff between water supply and flood control objectives in large, multi-purpose reservoirs in California.

Does job burnout mediate negative effects of job demands on mental and physical health in a group of teachers? Testing the energetic process of Job Demands-Resources model.

PubMed

Baka, Łukasz

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the direct and indirect - mediated by job burnout - effects of job demands on mental and physical health problems. The Job Demands-Resources model was the theoretical framework of the study. Three job demands were taken into account - interpersonal conflicts at work, organizational constraints and workload. Indicators of mental and physical health problems included depression and physical symptoms, respectively. Three hundred and sixteen Polish teachers from 8 schools participated in the study. The hypotheses were tested with the use of tools measuring job demands (Interpersonal Conflicts at Work, Organizational Constraints, Quantitative Workload), job burnout (the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory), depression (the Beck Hopelessness Scale), and physical symptoms (the Physical Symptoms Inventory). The regression analysis with bootstrapping, using the PROCESS macros of Hayes was applied. The results support the hypotheses partially. The indirect effect and to some extent the direct effect of job demands turned out to be statistically important. The negative impact of 3 job demands on mental (hypothesis 1 - H1) and physical (hypothesis 2 - H2) health were mediated by the increasing job burnout. Only organizational constraints were directly associated with mental (and not physical) health. The results partially support the notion of the Job Demands-Resources model and provide further insight into processes leading to the low well-being of teachers in the workplace. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Detecting sexually antagonistic coevolution with population crosses.

PubMed

Rowe, Locke; Cameron, Erin; Day, Troy

2003-10-07

The result of population crosses on traits such as mating rate, oviposition rate and survivorship are increasingly used to distinguish between modes of coevolution between the sexes. Two key hypotheses, erected from a verbal theory of sexually antagonistic coevolution, have been the subject of several recent tests. First, statistical interactions arising in population crosses are suggested to be indicative of a complex signal/receiver system. In the case of oviposition rates, an interaction between populations (x, y and z) would be indicated by the rank order of female oviposition rates achieved by x, y and z males changing depending upon the female (x, y or z) with which they mated. Second, under sexually antagonistic coevolution females will do 'best' when mated with their own males, where best is defined by the weakest response to the signal and the highest fitness. We test these hypotheses by crossing strains generated from a formal model of sexually antagonistic coevolution. Strains differ in the strength of natural selection acting on male and female traits. In our model, we assume sexually antagonistic coevolution of a single male signal and female receptor. The female receptor is treated as a preference function where both the slope and intercept of the function can evolve. Our results suggest that neither prediction is consistently supported. Interactions are not diagnostic of complex signal-receiver systems, and even under sexually antagonistic coevolution, females may do better mating with males of strains other than their own. These results suggest a reinterpretation of several recent experiments and have important implications for developing theories of speciation when sexually antagonistic coevolution is involved.

Sigsearch: a new term for post hoc unplanned search for statistically significant relationships with the intent to create publishable findings.

PubMed

Hashim, Muhammad Jawad

2010-09-01

Post-hoc secondary data analysis with no prespecified hypotheses has been discouraged by textbook authors and journal editors alike. Unfortunately no single term describes this phenomenon succinctly. I would like to coin the term "sigsearch" to define this practice and bring it within the teaching lexicon of statistics courses. Sigsearch would include any unplanned, post-hoc search for statistical significance using multiple comparisons of subgroups. It would also include data analysis with outcomes other than the prespecified primary outcome measure of a study as well as secondary data analyses of earlier research.

Teaching the Fluctuation Test "In Silico" by Using Mutate: A Program to Distinguish between the Adaptive and Spontaneous Mutation Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carvajal-Rodriguez, Antonio

2012-01-01

Mutate is a program developed for teaching purposes to impart a virtual laboratory class for undergraduate students of Genetics in Biology. The program emulates the so-called fluctuation test whose aim is to distinguish between spontaneous and adaptive mutation hypotheses in bacteria. The plan is to train students in certain key multidisciplinary…

A statistical approach for segregating cognitive task stages from multivariate fMRI BOLD time series.

PubMed

Demanuele, Charmaine; Bähner, Florian; Plichta, Michael M; Kirsch, Peter; Tost, Heike; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Durstewitz, Daniel

2015-01-01

Multivariate pattern analysis can reveal new information from neuroimaging data to illuminate human cognition and its disturbances. Here, we develop a methodological approach, based on multivariate statistical/machine learning and time series analysis, to discern cognitive processing stages from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) time series. We apply this method to data recorded from a group of healthy adults whilst performing a virtual reality version of the delayed win-shift radial arm maze (RAM) task. This task has been frequently used to study working memory and decision making in rodents. Using linear classifiers and multivariate test statistics in conjunction with time series bootstraps, we show that different cognitive stages of the task, as defined by the experimenter, namely, the encoding/retrieval, choice, reward and delay stages, can be statistically discriminated from the BOLD time series in brain areas relevant for decision making and working memory. Discrimination of these task stages was significantly reduced during poor behavioral performance in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but not in the primary visual cortex (V1). Experimenter-defined dissection of time series into class labels based on task structure was confirmed by an unsupervised, bottom-up approach based on Hidden Markov Models. Furthermore, we show that different groupings of recorded time points into cognitive event classes can be used to test hypotheses about the specific cognitive role of a given brain region during task execution. We found that whilst the DLPFC strongly differentiated between task stages associated with different memory loads, but not between different visual-spatial aspects, the reverse was true for V1. Our methodology illustrates how different aspects of cognitive information processing during one and the same task can be separated and attributed to specific brain regions based on information contained in multivariate patterns of voxel activity.

Hidden Hearing Loss? No Effect of Common Recreational Noise Exposure on Cochlear Nerve Response Amplitude in Humans

PubMed Central

Grinn, Sarah K.; Wiseman, Kathryn B.; Baker, Jason A.; Le Prell, Colleen G.

2017-01-01

This study tested hypothesized relationships between noise exposure and auditory deficits. Both retrospective assessment of potential associations between noise exposure history and performance on an audiologic test battery and prospective assessment of potential changes in performance after new recreational noise exposure were completed. Methods: 32 participants (13M, 19F) with normal hearing (25-dB HL or better, 0.25–8 kHz) were asked to participate in 3 pre- and post-exposure sessions including: otoscopy, tympanometry, distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) (f2 frequencies 1–8 kHz), pure-tone audiometry (0.25–8 kHz), Words-in-Noise (WIN) test, and electrocochleography (eCochG) measurements at 70, 80, and 90-dB nHL (click and 2–4 kHz tone-bursts). The first session was used to collect baseline data, the second session was collected the day after a loud recreational event, and the third session was collected 1-week later. Of the 32 participants, 26 completed all 3 sessions. Results: The retrospective analysis did not reveal statistically significant relationships between noise exposure history and any auditory deficits. The day after new exposure, there was a statistically significant correlation between noise “dose” and WIN performance overall, and within the 4-dB signal-to-babble ratio. In contrast, there were no statistically significant correlations between noise dose and changes in threshold, DPOAE amplitude, or AP amplitude the day after new noise exposure. Additional analyses revealed a statistically significant relationship between TTS and DPOAE amplitude at 6 kHz, with temporarily decreased DPOAE amplitude observed with increasing TTS. Conclusions: There was no evidence of auditory deficits as a function of previous noise exposure history, and no permanent changes in audiometric, electrophysiologic, or functional measures after new recreational noise exposure. There were very few participants with TTS the day after exposure - a test time selected to be consistent with previous animal studies. The largest observed TTS was approximately 20-dB. The observed pattern of small TTS suggests little risk of synaptopathy from common recreational noise exposure, and that we should not expect to observe changes in evoked potentials for this reason. No such changes were observed in this study. These data do not support suggestions that common, recreational noise exposure is likely to result in “hidden hearing loss”. PMID:28919848

Sequence variants of Toll-like receptor 4 and susceptibility to prostate cancer.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Ching; Giovannucci, Edward; Lazarus, Ross; Kraft, Peter; Ketkar, Shamika; Hunter, David J

2005-12-15

Chronic inflammation has been hypothesized to be a risk factor for prostate cancer. The Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) presents the bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS), which interacts with ligand-binding protein and CD14 (LPS receptor) and activates expression of inflammatory genes through nuclear factor-kappaB and mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling. A previous case-control study found a modest association of a polymorphism in the TLR4 gene [11381G/C, GG versus GC/CC: odds ratio (OR), 1.26] with risk of prostate cancer. We assessed if sequence variants of TLR4 were associated with the risk of prostate cancer. In a nested case-control design within the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we identified 700 participants with prostate cancer diagnosed after they had provided a blood specimen in 1993 and before January 2000. Controls were 700 age-matched men without prostate cancer who had had a prostate-specific antigen test after providing a blood specimen. We genotyped 16 common (>5%) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) discovered in a resequencing study spanning TLR4 to test for association between sequence variation in TLR4 and prostate cancer. Homozygosity for the variant alleles of eight SNPs was associated with a statistically significantly lower risk of prostate cancer (TLR4_1893, TLR4_2032, TLR4_2437, TLR4_7764, TLR4_11912, TLR4_16649, TLR4_17050, and TLR4_17923), but the TLR4_15844 polymorphism corresponding to 11381G/C was not associated with prostate cancer (GG versus CG/CC: OR, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.29). Six common haplotypes (cumulative frequency, 81%) were observed; the global test for association between haplotypes and prostate cancer was statistically significant (chi(2) = 14.8 on 6 degrees of freedom; P = 0.02). Two common haplotypes were statistically significantly associated with altered risk of prostate cancer. Inherited polymorphisms of the innate immune gene TLR4 are associated with risk of prostate cancer.

Outlier Removal and the Relation with Reporting Errors and Quality of Psychological Research

PubMed Central

Bakker, Marjan; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Background The removal of outliers to acquire a significant result is a questionable research practice that appears to be commonly used in psychology. In this study, we investigated whether the removal of outliers in psychology papers is related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), a higher prevalence of reporting errors, and smaller sample sizes in these papers compared to papers in the same journals that did not report the exclusion of outliers from the analyses. Methods and Findings We retrieved a total of 2667 statistical results of null hypothesis significance tests from 153 articles in main psychology journals, and compared results from articles in which outliers were removed (N = 92) with results from articles that reported no exclusion of outliers (N = 61). We preregistered our hypotheses and methods and analyzed the data at the level of articles. Results show no significant difference between the two types of articles in median p value, sample sizes, or prevalence of all reporting errors, large reporting errors, and reporting errors that concerned the statistical significance. However, we did find a discrepancy between the reported degrees of freedom of t tests and the reported sample size in 41% of articles that did not report removal of any data values. This suggests common failure to report data exclusions (or missingness) in psychological articles. Conclusions We failed to find that the removal of outliers from the analysis in psychological articles was related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), sample size, or the prevalence of errors. However, our control sample might be contaminated due to nondisclosure of excluded values in articles that did not report exclusion of outliers. Results therefore highlight the importance of more transparent reporting of statistical analyses. PMID:25072606

A Rejection Principle for Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Familywise Error Rates

PubMed Central

BARTROFF, JAY; SONG, JINLIN

2015-01-01

We present a unifying approach to multiple testing procedures for sequential (or streaming) data by giving sufficient conditions for a sequential multiple testing procedure to control the familywise error rate (FWER). Together we call these conditions a “rejection principle for sequential tests,” which we then apply to some existing sequential multiple testing procedures to give simplified understanding of their FWER control. Next the principle is applied to derive two new sequential multiple testing procedures with provable FWER control, one for testing hypotheses in order and another for closed testing. Examples of these new procedures are given by applying them to a chromosome aberration data set and to finding the maximum safe dose of a treatment. PMID:26985125

Testing Hypotheses about Second Language Acquisition: The Copula and Negative in Three Subjects. Working Papers on Bilingualism, No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cancino, Herlinda; And Others

Three hypotheses are examined in relation to English copula and negative utterances produced by three native Spanish speakers. The hypotheses are interference, interlanguage and L1=L2, which states that acquisition of a language by second language learners will parallel acquisiton of the same language by first language learners. The results of the…

Efficiency of Health Investment: Education or Intelligence?

PubMed

Bijwaard, Govert E; Van Kippersluis, Hans

2016-09-01

In this paper, we hypothesize that education is associated with a higher efficiency of health investment, yet that this efficiency advantage is solely driven by intelligence. We operationalize efficiency of health investment as the probability of dying conditional on a certain hospital diagnosis and estimate a multistate structural equation model with three states: (i) healthy, (ii) hospitalized, and (iii) death. We use data from a Dutch cohort born around 1940 that links intelligence tests at age 12 years to later-life hospitalization and mortality records. The results indicate that intelligent individuals have a clear survival advantage for most hospital diagnoses, while the remaining disparities across education groups are small and not statistically significant. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regression-based statistical mediation and moderation analysis in clinical research: Observations, recommendations, and implementation.

PubMed

Hayes, Andrew F; Rockwood, Nicholas J

2017-11-01

There have been numerous treatments in the clinical research literature about various design, analysis, and interpretation considerations when testing hypotheses about mechanisms and contingencies of effects, popularly known as mediation and moderation analysis. In this paper we address the practice of mediation and moderation analysis using linear regression in the pages of Behaviour Research and Therapy and offer some observations and recommendations, debunk some popular myths, describe some new advances, and provide an example of mediation, moderation, and their integration as conditional process analysis using the PROCESS macro for SPSS and SAS. Our goal is to nudge clinical researchers away from historically significant but increasingly old school approaches toward modifications, revisions, and extensions that characterize more modern thinking about the analysis of the mechanisms and contingencies of effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Business strategy and financial structure: an empirical analysis of acute care hospitals.

PubMed

Ginn, G O; Young, G J; Beekun, R I

1995-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between business strategy and financial structure in the U.S. hospital industry. We studied two dimensions of financial structure--liquidity and leverage. Liquidity was assessed by the acid ratio, and leverage was assessed using the equity funding ratio. Drawing from managerial, finance, and resource dependence perspectives, we developed and tested hypotheses about the relationship between Miles and Snow strategy types and financial structure. Relevant contextual financial and organizational variables were controlled for statistically through the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance technique. The relationship between business strategy and financial structure was found to be significant. Among the Miles and Snow strategy types, defenders were found to have relatively high liquidity and low leverage. Prospectors typically had low liquidity and high leverage. Implications for financial planning, competitive assessment, and reimbursement policy are discussed.

Within-subject mediation analysis for experimental data in cognitive psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Vuorre, Matti; Bolger, Niall

2017-12-15

Statistical mediation allows researchers to investigate potential causal effects of experimental manipulations through intervening variables. It is a powerful tool for assessing the presence and strength of postulated causal mechanisms. Although mediation is used in certain areas of psychology, it is rarely applied in cognitive psychology and neuroscience. One reason for the scarcity of applications is that these areas of psychology commonly employ within-subjects designs, and mediation models for within-subjects data are considerably more complicated than for between-subjects data. Here, we draw attention to the importance and ubiquity of mediational hypotheses in within-subjects designs, and we present a general and flexible software package for conducting Bayesian within-subjects mediation analyses in the R programming environment. We use experimental data from cognitive psychology to illustrate the benefits of within-subject mediation for theory testing and comparison.

Moral Virtue and Practical Wisdom: Theme Comprehension in Children, Youth and Adults

PubMed Central

Narvaez, Darcia; Gleason, Tracy; Mitchell, Christyan

2010-01-01

Three hypotheses were tested about the relation of moral comprehension to prudential comprehension by contrasting comprehension of themes in moral stories with comprehension of themes in prudential stories among third grade, fifth grade and college students (n = 168) in Study 1, and among college students, young and middle aged adults, and older adults (n = 96) in Study 2. In both studies, all groups were statistically significantly better at moral theme comprehension than prudential theme comprehension, suggesting that moral comprehension may develop prior to prudential comprehension. In Study 2, all groups performed equally on moral theme generation whereas both adult groups were significantly better than college students on prudential theme generation. Overall, the findings of these studies provide modest evidence that moral and prudential comprehension each develop separately, and that the latter may develop more slowly. PMID:21171549

Unicorns do exist: a tutorial on "proving" the null hypothesis.

PubMed

Streiner, David L

2003-12-01

Introductory statistics classes teach us that we can never prove the null hypothesis; all we can do is reject or fail to reject it. However, there are times when it is necessary to try to prove the nonexistence of a difference between groups. This most often happens within the context of comparing a new treatment against an established one and showing that the new intervention is not inferior to the standard. This article first outlines the logic of "noninferiority" testing by differentiating between the null hypothesis (that which we are trying to nullify) and the "nill" hypothesis (there is no difference), reversing the role of the null and alternate hypotheses, and defining an interval within which groups are said to be equivalent. We then work through an example and show how to calculate sample sizes for noninferiority studies.

Gene networks and the evolution of plant morphology.

PubMed

Das Gupta, Mainak; Tsiantis, Miltos

2018-06-06

Elaboration of morphology depends on the precise orchestration of gene expression by key regulatory genes. The hierarchy and relationship among the participating genes is commonly known as gene regulatory network (GRN). Therefore, the evolution of morphology ultimately occurs by the rewiring of gene network structures or by the co-option of gene networks to novel domains. The availability of high-resolution expression data combined with powerful statistical tools have opened up new avenues to formulate and test hypotheses on how diverse gene networks influence trait development and diversity. Here we summarize recent studies based on both big-data and genetics approaches to understand the evolution of plant form and physiology. We also discuss recent genome-wide investigations on how studying open-chromatin regions may help study the evolution of gene expression patterns. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Rehabilitation with dental prosthesis can increase cerebral regional blood volume.

PubMed

Miyamoto, Ikuya; Yoshida, Kazuya; Tsuboi, Yoichi; Iizuka, Tadahiko

2005-12-01

Treatment with denture for edentulous people is highly important for maintaining quality of life. However, its effect on the brain is unknown. In this experimental study, we hypothesized that dental prosthesis can recover not only the physical condition of mastication system but also the regional brain activity. We evaluated functional brain imaging of edentulous subjects fixed by dental implant prosthesis with clenching tasks by multi-channel near-infrared optical topography. Results revealed a significantly (P<0.001; paired t-test) increased cerebral regional blood volume during maximum voluntary clenching task by implant-retained prosthesis. There were no statistically significant differences between patients with and without prosthesis in the latency to the maximum regional blood volume after the task. Conclusively, clenching can be effective for increasing cerebral blood volume; accordingly maintenance of normal chewing might prevent the brain from degenerating.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Clinical effectiveness of continuous passive motion (CPM) following femoroacetabular impingement surgery in adolescents.

PubMed

Hosalkar, Harish; Bomar, James D

2012-08-01

This study hypothesizes that the use of continuous passive motion (CPM) following open femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) surgery in the adolescent population improves clinical outcomes in terms of the modified Harris hip score (mHHS). Twenty-nine symptomatic adolescent FAI patients were postoperatively divided into one of three groups; no CPM, two days of inpatient CPM, and two weeks of CPM. mHHS was used preoperatively and postoperatively at six weeks, three months, six months, and nine months in all cases. Kruskal-Wallis (KW) analysis was performed to determine statistical differences in mHHS. mHHS was then re-evaluated using the Mann-Whitney test. There were no statistically significant differences in hip scores between the three groups preoperatively (p = 0.158). There were statistically significant differences (p < 0.001) in mHHS between the three groups at all postoperative time periods. The group that received two weeks of CPM had the best outcome scores. The results of this study suggest that postoperative CPM use following open hip preservation surgery for symptomatic FAI in adolescents improves clinical outcomes. These benefits seem to be related to the duration of CPM. Retrospective comparative study, Level III. Patients treated one way compared with patients treated another way at the same institution.

Synthetic velocity gradient tensors and the identification of statistically significant aspects of the structure of turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keylock, Christopher J.

2017-08-01

A method is presented for deriving random velocity gradient tensors given a source tensor. These synthetic tensors are constrained to lie within mathematical bounds of the non-normality of the source tensor, but we do not impose direct constraints upon scalar quantities typically derived from the velocity gradient tensor and studied in fluid mechanics. Hence, it becomes possible to ask hypotheses of data at a point regarding the statistical significance of these scalar quantities. Having presented our method and the associated mathematical concepts, we apply it to homogeneous, isotropic turbulence to test the utility of the approach for a case where the behavior of the tensor is understood well. We show that, as well as the concentration of data along the Vieillefosse tail, actual turbulence is also preferentially located in the quadrant where there is both excess enstrophy (Q>0 ) and excess enstrophy production (R<0 ). We also examine the topology implied by the strain eigenvalues and find that for the statistically significant results there is a particularly strong relative preference for the formation of disklike structures in the (Q<0 ,R<0 ) quadrant. With the method shown to be useful for a turbulence that is already understood well, it should be of even greater utility for studying complex flows seen in industry and the environment.

The effect of health shocks on smoking and obesity.

PubMed

Sundmacher, Leonie

2012-08-01

To investigate whether negative changes in their own health (i.e. health shocks) or in that of a smoking or obese household member, lead smokers to quit smoking and obese individuals to lose weight. The study is informed by economic models ('rational addiction' and 'demand for health' models) which offer hypotheses on the relationship between health shocks and health-related behaviour. Each hypothesis was tested applying a discrete-time hazard model with random effects using up to ten waves of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP) and statistics on cigarette, food and beverage prices provided by the Federal Statistical Office. Health shocks had a significant positive impact on the probability that smokers quit during the same year in which they experienced the health shock. Health shocks of a smoking household member between year t-2 and t-1 also motivated smoking cessation, although statistical evidence for this was weaker. Health shocks experienced by obese individuals or their household members had, on the other hand, no significant effect on weight loss, as measured by changes in Body Mass Index (BMI). The results of the study suggest that smokers are aware of the risks associated with tobacco consumption, know about effective strategies to quit smoking, and are willing to quit for health-related reasons. In contrast, there was no evidence for changes in health-related behaviour among obese individuals after a health shock.

Statistical characterization of a large geochemical database and effect of sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, C.; Manheim, F.T.; Hinde, J.; Grossman, J.N.

2005-01-01

The authors investigated statistical distributions for concentrations of chemical elements from the National Geochemical Survey (NGS) database of the U.S. Geological Survey. At the time of this study, the NGS data set encompasses 48,544 stream sediment and soil samples from the conterminous United States analyzed by ICP-AES following a 4-acid near-total digestion. This report includes 27 elements: Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, P, Ti, Ba, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Ga, La, Li, Mn, Nb, Nd, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sr, Th, V, Y and Zn. The goal and challenge for the statistical overview was to delineate chemical distributions in a complex, heterogeneous data set spanning a large geographic range (the conterminous United States), and many different geological provinces and rock types. After declustering to create a uniform spatial sample distribution with 16,511 samples, histograms and quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots were employed to delineate subpopulations that have coherent chemical and mineral affinities. Probability groupings are discerned by changes in slope (kinks) on the plots. Major rock-forming elements, e.g., Al, Ca, K and Na, tend to display linear segments on normal Q-Q plots. These segments can commonly be linked to petrologic or mineralogical associations. For example, linear segments on K and Na plots reflect dilution of clay minerals by quartz sand (low in K and Na). Minor and trace element relationships are best displayed on lognormal Q-Q plots. These sensitively reflect discrete relationships in subpopulations within the wide range of the data. For example, small but distinctly log-linear subpopulations for Pb, Cu, Zn and Ag are interpreted to represent ore-grade enrichment of naturally occurring minerals such as sulfides. None of the 27 chemical elements could pass the test for either normal or lognormal distribution on the declustered data set. Part of the reasons relate to the presence of mixtures of subpopulations and outliers. Random samples of the data set with successively smaller numbers of data points showed that few elements passed standard statistical tests for normality or log-normality until sample size decreased to a few hundred data points. Large sample size enhances the power of statistical tests, and leads to rejection of most statistical hypotheses for real data sets. For large sample sizes (e.g., n > 1000), graphical methods such as histogram, stem-and-leaf, and probability plots are recommended for rough judgement of probability distribution if needed. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predation risk, elk, and aspen: tests of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Winnie, John A

2012-12-01

Aspen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem are hypothesized to be recovering from decades of heavy browsing by elk due to a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade (BMTC). Several authors have suggested that wolves interact with certain terrain features, creating places of high predation risk at fine spatial scales, and that elk avoid these places, which creates refugia for plants. This hypothesized BMTC could release aspen from elk browsing pressure, leading to a patchy recovery in places of high risk. I tested whether four specific, hypothesized fine-scale risk factors are correlated with changes in current elk browsing pressure on aspen, or with aspen recruitment since wolf reintroduction, in the Daly Creek drainage in Yellowstone National Park, and near two aspen enclosures outside of the park boundary. Aspen were not responding to hypothesized fine-scale risk factors in ways consistent with the current BMTC hypothesis.

Quantifying and Interpreting Group Differences in Interest Profiles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Fouad, Nadya A.; Rounds, James; Hubert, Lawrence

2010-01-01

Research on group differences in interests has often focused on structural hypotheses and mean-score differences in Holland's (1997) theory, with comparatively little research on basic interest measures. Group differences in interest profiles were examined using statistical methods for matching individuals with occupations, the C-index, Q…

Using Markov Chain Analyses in Counselor Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duys, David K.; Headrick, Todd C.

2004-01-01

This study examined the efficacy of an infrequently used statistical analysis in counselor education research. A Markov chain analysis was used to examine hypothesized differences between students' use of counseling skills in an introductory course. Thirty graduate students participated in the study. Independent raters identified the microskills…

Investigation of Attitudinal Differences among Individuals of Different Employment Status

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-28

be included in order to statistically control for common method variance (see Podsakoff , MacKenzie, Lee, & Podsakoff , 2003). Results Hypotheses 1...social identity theory. Social Psychology Quarterly, 58, 255-269. Podsakoff , P. M., MacKenzie, S. B., Lee, J., & Podsakoff , N. P. (2003). Common method

Effect of Professional Development on Classroom Practices in Some Selected Saudi Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alghamdi, AbdulKhaliq Hajjad; Bin Sihes, Ahmad Johari

2016-01-01

"Scientific studies found the impact of professional development on effective classroom practices in Higher Education." This paper hypothesizes no statistically significant effect of lecturers' professional development on classroom practices in some selected Saudi Universities not as highlighted in the model. Hierarchical multiple…

The Consolidation/Transition Model in Moral Reasoning Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Hennig, Karl H.

2001-01-01

This longitudinal study with 62 children and adolescents examined the validity of the consolidation/transition model in the context of moral reasoning development. Results of standard statistical and Bayesian techniques supported the hypotheses regarding cyclical patterns of change and predictors of stage transition, and demonstrated the utility…

Coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies.

PubMed

Tench, C R; Tanasescu, Radu; Constantinescu, C S; Auer, D P; Cottam, W J

2017-06-01

Low power in neuroimaging studies can make them difficult to interpret, and Coordinate based meta-analysis (CBMA) may go some way to mitigating this issue. CBMA has been used in many analyses to detect where published functional MRI or voxel-based morphometry studies testing similar hypotheses report significant summary results (coordinates) consistently. Only the reported coordinates and possibly t statistics are analysed, and statistical significance of clusters is determined by coordinate density. Here a method of performing coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis and meta-regression is introduced. The algorithm (ClusterZ) analyses both coordinates and reported t statistic or Z score, standardised by the number of subjects. Statistical significance is determined not by coordinate density, but by a random effects meta-analyses of reported effects performed cluster-wise using standard statistical methods and taking account of censoring inherent in the published summary results. Type 1 error control is achieved using the false cluster discovery rate (FCDR), which is based on the false discovery rate. This controls both the family wise error rate under the null hypothesis that coordinates are randomly drawn from a standard stereotaxic space, and the proportion of significant clusters that are expected under the null. Such control is necessary to avoid propagating and even amplifying the very issues motivating the meta-analysis in the first place. ClusterZ is demonstrated on both numerically simulated data and on real data from reports of grey matter loss in multiple sclerosis (MS) and syndromes suggestive of MS, and of painful stimulus in healthy controls. The software implementation is available to download and use freely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mismatch between aspects of hearing impairment and hearing disability/handicap in adult/elderly Cantonese speakers: some hypotheses concerning cultural and linguistic influences.

PubMed

Doyle, J; Wong, L L

1996-12-01

This paper addresses the observation that some Cantonese-speaking adults do not perceive a hearing problem even when hearing screening identifies hearing loss. A sample of 49 Cantonese speakers was surveyed about their self-perceptions of hearing prior to a 25 dB HTL pure-tone screening test. All 49 persons failed the screening test, yet 34 (69.4%) reported that they had no problems hearing during conversations. Persons who admitted hearing difficulties tended to have mean hearing levels in excess of 45 dB HTL. A number of hypotheses concerning cultural and linguistic influences are proposed as explanations for the apparent lack of significance of auditory sensitivity loss for some Cantonese speakers. Ways in which these hypotheses might be tested are suggested.

Some controversial multiple testing problems in regulatory applications.

PubMed

Hung, H M James; Wang, Sue-Jane

2009-01-01

Multiple testing problems in regulatory applications are often more challenging than the problems of handling a set of mathematical symbols representing multiple null hypotheses under testing. In the union-intersection setting, it is important to define a family of null hypotheses relevant to the clinical questions at issue. The distinction between primary endpoint and secondary endpoint needs to be considered properly in different clinical applications. Without proper consideration, the widely used sequential gate keeping strategies often impose too many logical restrictions to make sense, particularly to deal with the problem of testing multiple doses and multiple endpoints, the problem of testing a composite endpoint and its component endpoints, and the problem of testing superiority and noninferiority in the presence of multiple endpoints. Partitioning the null hypotheses involved in closed testing into clinical relevant orderings or sets can be a viable alternative to resolving the illogical problems requiring more attention from clinical trialists in defining the clinical hypotheses or clinical question(s) at the design stage. In the intersection-union setting there is little room for alleviating the stringency of the requirement that each endpoint must meet the same intended alpha level, unless the parameter space under the null hypothesis can be substantially restricted. Such restriction often requires insurmountable justification and usually cannot be supported by the internal data. Thus, a possible remedial approach to alleviate the possible conservatism as a result of this requirement is a group-sequential design strategy that starts with a conservative sample size planning and then utilizes an alpha spending function to possibly reach the conclusion early.

Implementation of jump-diffusion algorithms for understanding FLIR scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanterman, Aaron D.; Miller, Michael I.; Snyder, Donald L.

1995-07-01

Our pattern theoretic approach to the automated understanding of forward-looking infrared (FLIR) images brings the traditionally separate endeavors of detection, tracking, and recognition together into a unified jump-diffusion process. New objects are detected and object types are recognized through discrete jump moves. Between jumps, the location and orientation of objects are estimated via continuous diffusions. An hypothesized scene, simulated from the emissive characteristics of the hypothesized scene elements, is compared with the collected data by a likelihood function based on sensor statistics. This likelihood is combined with a prior distribution defined over the set of possible scenes to form a posterior distribution. The jump-diffusion process empirically generates the posterior distribution. Both the diffusion and jump operations involve the simulation of a scene produced by a hypothesized configuration. Scene simulation is most effectively accomplished by pipelined rendering engines such as silicon graphics. We demonstrate the execution of our algorithm on a silicon graphics onyx/reality engine.

Structural equation modeling: building and evaluating causal models: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, James B.; Scheiner, Samuel M.; Schoolmaster, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Scientists frequently wish to study hypotheses about causal relationships, rather than just statistical associations. This chapter addresses the question of how scientists might approach this ambitious task. Here we describe structural equation modeling (SEM), a general modeling framework for the study of causal hypotheses. Our goals are to (a) concisely describe the methodology, (b) illustrate its utility for investigating ecological systems, and (c) provide guidance for its application. Throughout our presentation, we rely on a study of the effects of human activities on wetland ecosystems to make our description of methodology more tangible. We begin by presenting the fundamental principles of SEM, including both its distinguishing characteristics and the requirements for modeling hypotheses about causal networks. We then illustrate SEM procedures and offer guidelines for conducting SEM analyses. Our focus in this presentation is on basic modeling objectives and core techniques. Pointers to additional modeling options are also given.

The effects of authentic leadership, six areas of worklife, and occupational coping self-efficacy on new graduate nurses' burnout and mental health: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Laschinger, Heather K Spence; Borgogni, Laura; Consiglio, Chiara; Read, Emily

2015-06-01

New nurse burnout has personal and organizational costs. The combined effect of authentic leadership, person-job fit within areas of worklife, and occupational coping self-efficacy on new nurses' burnout and emotional wellbeing has not been investigated. This study tested a model linking authentic leadership, areas of worklife, occupational coping self-efficacy, burnout, and mental health among new graduate nurses. We also tested the validity of the concept of interpersonal strain at work as a facet of burnout. A cross-sectional national survey of Canadian new graduate nurses was conducted. Registered nurses working in direct patient care in acute care settings with less than 3 years of experience were selected from provincial registry databases of 10 Canadian provinces. A total of 1009 of 3743 surveyed new graduate nurses were included in the final sample (useable response rate 27%). Participants received a mail survey package that included a letter of information, study questionnaire, and a $2 coffee voucher. To optimize response rates non-responders received a reminder letter four weeks after the initial mailing, followed by a second survey package four weeks after that. Ethics approval was obtained from the university ethics board prior to starting the study. Descriptive statistics and scale reliabilities were analyzed. Structural equation modelling with maximum likelihood estimation was used to test the fit between the data and the hypothesized model and to assess the factor structure of the expanded burnout measure. The hypothesized model was an acceptable fit for the data (χ(2) (164)=1221.38; χ(2) ratio=7.447; CFI=.921; IFI=.921; RMSEA=.08). All hypothesized paths were significant. Authentic leadership had a positive effect on areas of worklife, which in turn had a positive effect on occupational coping self-efficacy, resulting in lower burnout, which was associated with poor mental health. Authentic leaders may play an important role in creating positive working conditions and strengthening new nurses' confidence that help them cope with job demands, thereby protecting them from developing burnout and poor mental health. Leadership training to develop supervisors' authentic leadership skills may promote the development of person-job fit, thereby increasing occupational self-efficacy and new nurses' wellbeing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical development, Water Resources Research, 47(11).

The impact of chief executive officer personality on top management team dynamics:one mechanism by which leadership affects organizational performance.

PubMed

Peterson, Randall S; Smith, D Brent; Martorana, Paul V; Owens, Pamela D

2003-10-01

This article explores 1 mechanism by which leader personality affects organizational performance. The authors hypothesized and tested the effects of leader personality on the group dynamics of the top management team (TMT) and of TMT dynamics on organizational performance. To test their hypotheses, the authors used the group dynamics q-sort method, which is designed to permit rigorous, quantitative comparisons of data derived from qualitative sources. Results from independent observations of chief executive officer (CEO) personality and TMT dynamics for 17 CEOs supported the authors' hypothesized relationships both between CEO personality and TMT group dynamics and between TMT dynamics and organizational performance.

An Attempt to Determine the Construct Validity of Measures Hypothesized to Represent an Orientation to Right, Left, or Integrated Hemispheric Brain Function for a Sample of Primary School Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dumbrower, Jule; And Others

1981-01-01

This study attempts to obtain evidence of the construct validity of pupil ability tests hypothesized to represent orientation to right, left, or integrated hemispheric function, and of teacher observation subscales intended to reveal behaviors in school setting that were hypothesized to portray preference for right or left brain function. (Author)

Enhancing the effects of a narrative message through experiential information processing: An experimental study.

PubMed

Dillard, Amanda J; Hisler, Garrett

2015-01-01

First-person narratives are becoming a popular means to communicate health risk information. Although studies show they can increase risk perception and motivate health behaviours compared to statistical messages, more research on the conditions in which they are particularly likely to have effects is needed. In this study, we tested a moderator related to how information is processed. Specifically, we hypothesised that thinking in terms of emotions and personal experiences - known as experiential information processing - would increase people's responsiveness to a narrative. Female college students (N = 138) who reported indoor tanning were randomly assigned to read a first-person narrative message or a statistical message about the risks of skin cancer. Prior to reading the message, the women received instructions that would activate either experiential or rational information processing. Participants then reported their risk perceptions of skin cancer, worry about skin cancer and behaviour intentions related to skin cancer. Analyses showed that message type and information processing interacted to influence risk perceptions and worry. Consistent with hypotheses, participants reported the highest risk perception and worry when they used an experiential information system prior to reading the narrative message. There were no effects on behaviour intentions. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Influence of the helicopter environment on patient care capabilities: Flight crew perceptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyers, K. Jeffrey; Rodenberg, Howard; Woodard, Daniel

1994-01-01

Flight crew perceptions of the effect of the rotary wing environment on patient care capabilities have not been subject to statistical analysis. We hypothesized that flight crew perceived significant difficulties in performing patient care tasks during air medical transport. A survey instrument was distributed to a convenience sample of flight crew members from twenty flight programs. Respondents were asked to compare the difficulty of performing patient care tasks in rotary wing and standard (emergency department or intensive care unit) settings. Demographic data collected on respondents included years of flight experience, flights per month, crew duty position, and primary aircraft in which the respondent worked. Statistical analysis was performed as appropriate using Student's t-test, type 111 sum of squares, and analysis of variance. Alpha was defined as p is less than or equal to .05. Fifty-five percent of programs (90 individuals) responded. All tasks were rated significantly more difficult in the rotary wing environment. Ratings were not significantly correlated with flight experience, duty position, flights per month, or aircraft used. We conclude that the performance of patient care tasks are perceived by air medical flight crew to be significantly more difficult during rotary wing air medical transport than in hospital settings.

Nurse executive transformational leadership and organizational commitment.

PubMed

Leach, Linda Searle

2005-05-01

To investigate the relationship between nurse executive leadership and organizational commitment among nurses in acute care hospitals. A key challenge for organizations is to maximize the contributions of all workers by cultivating their commitment. Nurse leaders are in a position to influence organizational commitment among nurses. The theoretical constructs underlying this study are the transformational leadership theory and the Etzioni's organizational theory. A cross-sectional, field survey of nurse executives, nurse managers, and staff nurses was conducted to assess nurse executive transformational and transactional leadership and their relationship to organizational commitment. Hypotheses were tested using correlational analysis, and univariate statistics were used to describe the sample. An inverse relationship between nurse executive transformational and transactional leadership and alienative (highly negative) organizational commitment was statistically significant. A positive association was demonstrated between nurse executive leadership and nurse manager leadership. This study supports the effect of nurse executive leadership on nurse manager leadership and on organizational commitment among nurses despite role distance. To the extent that transformational leadership is present, alienative organizational commitment is reduced. This relationship shows the importance of nurse executive leadership in organizational involvement among nurses in the dynamic context of contemporary hospital settings.

Influence of the helicopter environment on patient care capabilities: flight crew perceptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, K. J.; Rodenberg, H.; Woodard, D.

1995-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Flight crew perceptions of the effect of the rotary-wing environment on patient-care capabilities have not been subject to statistical analysis. We hypothesized that flight crew members perceived significant difficulties in performing patient-care tasks during air medical transport. METHODS: A survey was distributed to a convenience sample of flight crew members from 20 flight programs. Respondents were asked to compare the difficulty of performing patient-care tasks in rotary-wing and standard (emergency department or intensive care unit) settings. Demographic data collected on respondents included years of flight experience, flights per month, crew duty position and primary aircraft in which the respondent worked. Statistical analysis was performed as appropriate using Student's t-test, type III sum of squares, and analysis of variance. Alpha was defined as p < 0.05. RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of programs (90 individuals) responded. All tasks were significantly rated more difficult in the rotary-wing environment. Ratings were not significantly correlated with flight experience, duty position, flights per month or aircraft used. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the performance of patient-care tasks are perceived by air medical flight crew to be significantly more difficult during rotary-wing air medical transport than in hospital settings.

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE)

PubMed Central

Boker, Steven M.; Brick, Timothy R.; Pritikin, Joshua N.; Wang, Yang; von Oertzen, Timo; Brown, Donald; Lach, John; Estabrook, Ryne; Hunter, Michael D.; Maes, Hermine H.; Neale, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE) is a novel paradigm for research in the behavioral, social, and health sciences. The MIDDLE approach is based on the seemingly-impossible idea that data can be privately maintained by participants and never revealed to researchers, while still enabling statistical models to be fit and scientific hypotheses tested. MIDDLE rests on the assumption that participant data should belong to, be controlled by, and remain in the possession of the participants themselves. Distributed likelihood estimation refers to fitting statistical models by sending an objective function and vector of parameters to each participants’ personal device (e.g., smartphone, tablet, computer), where the likelihood of that individual’s data is calculated locally. Only the likelihood value is returned to the central optimizer. The optimizer aggregates likelihood values from responding participants and chooses new vectors of parameters until the model converges. A MIDDLE study provides significantly greater privacy for participants, automatic management of opt-in and opt-out consent, lower cost for the researcher and funding institute, and faster determination of results. Furthermore, if a participant opts into several studies simultaneously and opts into data sharing, these studies automatically have access to individual-level longitudinal data linked across all studies. PMID:26717128

The effect of superior-canal opening on middle-ear input admittance and air-conducted stapes velocity in chinchilla

PubMed Central

Songer, Jocelyn E.; Rosowski, John J.

2009-01-01

The recent discovery of superior semicircular canal (SC) dehiscence syndrome as a clinical entity affecting both the auditory and vestibular systems has led to the investigation of the impact of a SC opening on the mechanics of hearing. It is hypothesized that the hole in the SC acts as a “third window” in the inner ear which shunts sound-induced stapes volume velocity away from the cochlea through the opening in the SC. To test the hypothesis and to understand the third window mechanisms the middle-ear input admittance and sound-induced stapes velocity were measured in chinchilla before and after surgically introducing a SC opening and after patching the opening. The extent to which patching returned the system to the presurgical state is used as a control criterion. In eight chinchilla ears a statistically significant, reversible increase in low-frequency middle-ear input admittance magnitude occurred as a result of opening the SC. In six ears a statistically significant reversible increase in stapes velocity was observed. Both of these changes are consistent with the hole creating a shunt pathway that increases the cochlear input admittance. PMID:16875223

The effect of superior-canal opening on middle-ear input admittance and air-conducted stapes velocity in chinchilla.

PubMed

Songer, Jocelyn E; Rosowski, John J

2006-07-01

The recent discovery of superior semicircular canal (SC) dehiscence syndrome as a clinical entity affecting both the auditory and vestibular systems has led to the investigation of the impact of a SC opening on the mechanics of hearing. It is hypothesized that the hole in the SC acts as a "third window" in the inner ear which shunts sound-induced stapes volume velocity away from the cochlea through the opening in the SC. To test the hypothesis and to understand the third window mechanisms the middle-ear input admittance and sound-induced stapes velocity were measured in chinchilla before and after surgically introducing a SC opening and after patching the opening. The extent to which patching returned the system to the presurgical state is used as a control criterion. In eight chinchilla ears a statistically significant, reversible increase in low-frequency middle-ear input admittance magnitude occurred as a result of opening the SC. In six ears a statistically significant reversible increase in stapes velocity was observed. Both of these changes are consistent with the hole creating a shunt pathway that increases the cochlear input admittance.