The Magnitude, Generality, and Determinants of Flynn Effects on Forms of Declarative Memory and Visuospatial Ability: Time-Sequential Analyses of Data from a Swedish Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronnlund, Michael; Nilsson, Lars-Goran

2008-01-01

To estimate Flynn effects (FEs) on forms of declarative memory (episodic, semantic) and visuospatial ability (Block Design) time-sequential analyses of data for Swedish adult samples (35-80 years) assessed on either of four occasions (1989, 1994, 1999, 2004; n = 2995) were conducted. The results demonstrated cognitive gains across occasions,…

Real-time estimation of incident delay in dynamic and stochastic networks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The ability to predict the link travel times is a necessary requirement for most intelligent transportation systems (ITS) applications such as route guidance systems. In an urban traffic environment, these travel times are dynamic and stochastic and ...

Children with developmental coordination disorder demonstrate a spatial mismatch when estimating coincident-timing ability with tools.

PubMed

Caçola, Priscila; Ibana, Melvin; Ricard, Mark; Gabbard, Carl

2016-01-01

Coincident timing or interception ability can be defined as the capacity to precisely time sensory input and motor output. This study compared accuracy of typically developing (TD) children and those with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) on a task involving estimation of coincident timing with their arm and various tool lengths. Forty-eight (48) participants performed two experiments where they imagined intercepting a target moving toward (Experiment 1) and target moving away (Experiment 2) from them in 5 conditions with their arm and tool lengths: arm, 10, 20, 30, and 40 cm. In Experiment 1, the DCD group overestimated interception points approximately twice as much as the TD group, and both groups overestimated consistently regardless of the tool used. Results for Experiment 2 revealed that those with DCD underestimated about three times as much as the TD group, with the exception of when no tool was used. Overall, these results indicate that children with DCD are less accurate with estimation of coincident-timing; which might in part explain their difficulties with common motor activities such as catching a ball or striking a baseball pitch. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Availability of new drugs and Americans' ability to work.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R

2005-04-01

The objective of this work was the investigation of the extent to which the introduction of new drugs has increased society's ability to produce goods and services by increasing the number of hours worked per member of the working-age population. Econometric models of ability-to-work measures from data on approximately 200,000 individuals with 47 major chronic conditions observed throughout a 15-year period (1982-1996) were estimated. Under very conservative assumptions, the estimates indicate that the value of the increase in ability to work attributable to new drugs is 2.5 times as great as expenditure on new drugs. The potential of drugs to increase employee productivity should be considered in the design of drug-reimbursement policies. Conversely, policies that broadly reduce the development and utilization of new drugs may ultimately reduce our ability to produce other goods and services.

Advanced simulation technology used to reduce accident rates through a better understanding of human behaviors and human perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manser, Michael P.; Hancock, Peter A.

1996-06-01

Human beings and technology have attained a mutually dependent and symbiotic relationship. It is easy to recognize how each depends on the other for survival. It is also easy to see how technology advances due to human activities. However, the role technology plays in advancing humankind is seldom examined. This presentation examines two research areas where the role of advanced visual simulation systems play an integral and essential role in understanding human perception and behavior. The ultimate goal of this research is the betterment of humankind through reduced accident and death rates in transportation environments. The first research area examined involved the estimation of time-to-contact. A high-fidelity wrap-around simulator (RAS) was used to examine people's ability to estimate time-to- contact. The ability of people to estimate the amount of time before an oncoming vehicle will collide with them is a necessary skill for avoiding collisions. A vehicle approached participants at one of three velocities, and while en route to the participant, the vehicle disappeared. The participants' task was to respond when they felt the accuracy of time-to-contact estimates and the practical applications of the result. The second area of research investigates the effects of various visual stimuli on underground transportation tunnel walls for the perception of vehicle speed. A RAS is paramount in creating visual patterns in peripheral vision. Flat-screen or front-screen simulators do not have this ability. Results are discussed in terms of speed perception and the application of these results to real world environments.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans. PMID:27381500

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko

2017-01-01

Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher C.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko

2017-07-01

Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

Estimating Premorbid Cognitive Abilities in Low-Educated Populations

PubMed Central

Apolinario, Daniel; Brucki, Sonia Maria Dozzi; Ferretti, Renata Eloah de Lucena; Farfel, José Marcelo; Magaldi, Regina Miksian; Busse, Alexandre Leopold; Jacob-Filho, Wilson

2013-01-01

Objective To develop an informant-based instrument that would provide a valid estimate of premorbid cognitive abilities in low-educated populations. Methods A questionnaire was drafted by focusing on the premorbid period with a 10-year time frame. The initial pool of items was submitted to classical test theory and a factorial analysis. The resulting instrument, named the Premorbid Cognitive Abilities Scale (PCAS), is composed of questions addressing educational attainment, major lifetime occupation, reading abilities, reading habits, writing abilities, calculation abilities, use of widely available technology, and the ability to search for specific information. The validation sample was composed of 132 older Brazilian adults from the following three demographically matched groups: normal cognitive aging (n = 72), mild cognitive impairment (n = 33), and mild dementia (n = 27). The scores of a reading test and a neuropsychological battery were adopted as construct criteria. Post-mortem inter-informant reliability was tested in a sub-study with two relatives from each deceased individual. Results All items presented good discriminative power, with corrected item-total correlation varying from 0.35 to 0.74. The summed score of the instrument presented high correlation coefficients with global cognitive function (r = 0.73) and reading skills (r = 0.82). Cronbach's alpha was 0.90, showing optimal internal consistency without redundancy. The scores did not decrease across the progressive levels of cognitive impairment, suggesting that the goal of evaluating the premorbid state was achieved. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.96, indicating excellent inter-informant reliability. Conclusion The instrument developed in this study has shown good properties and can be used as a valid estimate of premorbid cognitive abilities in low-educated populations. The applicability of the PCAS, both as an estimate of premorbid intelligence and cognitive reserve, is discussed. PMID:23555894

The evaluation of advanced traveler information services (ATIS) impacts on truck travel time reliability : using the simulated yoked study concept

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-01

The ability of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) to improve the on-time reliability of urban truck movements is evaluated through the application of the Heuristic On-Line Web- : Linked Arrival Time Estimation (HOWLATE) methodology. In HOWL...

Multimodal Likelihoods in Educational Assessment: Will the Real Maximum Likelihood Score Please Stand up?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wothke, Werner; Burket, George; Chen, Li-Sue; Gao, Furong; Shu, Lianghua; Chia, Mike

2011-01-01

It has been known for some time that item response theory (IRT) models may exhibit a likelihood function of a respondent's ability which may have multiple modes, flat modes, or both. These conditions, often associated with guessing of multiple-choice (MC) questions, can introduce uncertainty and bias to ability estimation by maximum likelihood…

Bootstrap Standard Errors for Maximum Likelihood Ability Estimates When Item Parameters Are Unknown

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Jeffrey M.; Cheng, Ying; Yuan, Ke-Hai; Diao, Qi

2014-01-01

When item parameter estimates are used to estimate the ability parameter in item response models, the standard error (SE) of the ability estimate must be corrected to reflect the error carried over from item calibration. For maximum likelihood (ML) ability estimates, a corrected asymptotic SE is available, but it requires a long test and the…

Feedback in Software and a Desktop Manufacturing Context for Learning Estimation Strategies in Middle School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malcolm, Peter

2013-01-01

The ability and to make good estimates is essential, as is the ability to assess the reasonableness of estimates. These abilities are becoming increasingly important as digital technologies transform the ways in which people work. To estimate is to provide an approximation to a problem that is mathematical in nature, and the ability to estimate is…

Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

1997-01-01

Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

Comparing techniques for estimating flame temperature of prescribed fires

Treesearch

Deborah K. Kennard; Kenneth W. Outcalt; David Jones; Joseph J. O' Brien

2005-01-01

A variety of techniques that estimate temperature and/or heat output during fires are available. We assessed the predictive ability of metal and tile pyrometers, calorimeters of different sizes, and fuel consumption to time-temperature metrics derived from thick and thin thermocouples at 140 points distributed over 9 management-scale burns in a longleaf pine forest in...

77 FR 23514 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-19

... purchaser, prior to or at the time of purchase, a signed document acknowledging the restrictions on... with. This requirement enhances the Commission's ability to monitor utilization of and compliance with... does not include in the estimate of average burden hours the time preparing registration statements and...

Human Performance: Sex Differences and the Influence of the Menstrual Cycle (A Selected Bibliography)

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-05-01

22 C. Vigilance/ Attention .. .... ......... .......... 23 D. Reaction Time .. ... ......... ......... .... 24 E. Time Estimation...24 F. Cognitive Skills/Intelligence. .. ....... ........ .... 25 G. Memory .. ........ ........ ......... .. 26 H. Problem...Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities. ..... .... 30 IV. SEX DIFFERENCES IN PERSONALITY .. ..... ........ .... 33 A. Emotional ity/Adaptive Styles

Infant rolling abilities--the same or different 20 years after the back to sleep campaign?

PubMed

Darrah, Johanna; Bartlett, Doreen J

2013-05-01

To compare the order and age of emergence of rolling prone to supine and supine to prone before the introduction of back to sleep guidelines and 20 years after their introduction. The original normative data for the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) were collected just prior to the introduction of back to sleep guidelines in 1992. Currently these norms are being re-evaluated. Data of rolling patterns of infants 36 weeks of age or younger from the original sample (n=1114) and the contemporary sample (n=351) were evaluated to compare the sequence of appearance of prone to supine and supine to prone rolls (proportion of infants passing each roll) and the ages of emergence (estimated age when 50% of infants passed each roll). The sequence of emergence and estimated age of appearance of both rolling directions were similar between the two time periods. The introduction of the supine sleep position to reduce the prevalence of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) has not altered the timing or sequence of infant rolling abilities. This information is valuable to health care providers involved in the surveillance of infants' development. Original normative age estimates for these two motor abilities are still appropriate. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Impact of Uncertainty about Item Parameters on Ability Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming; Xie, Minge; Song, Xiaolan; Lu, Ting

2011-01-01

Asymptotic expansions of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted likelihood estimator (WLE) of an examinee's ability are derived while item parameter estimators are treated as covariates measured with error. The asymptotic formulae present the amount of bias of the ability estimators due to the uncertainty of item parameter estimators.…

Standard cost elements for technology programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, Carisa B.; Wagenfuehrer, Carl

1992-01-01

The suitable structure for an effective and accurate cost estimate for general purposes is discussed in the context of a NASA technology program. Cost elements are defined for research, management, and facility-construction portions of technology programs. Attention is given to the mechanisms for insuring the viability of spending programs, and the need for program managers is established for effecting timely fund disbursement. Formal, structures, and intuitive techniques are discussed for cost-estimate development, and cost-estimate defensibility can be improved with increased documentation. NASA policies for cash management are examined to demonstrate the importance of the ability to obligate funds and the ability to cost contracted funds. The NASA approach to consistent cost justification is set forth with a list of standard cost-element definitions. The cost elements reflect the three primary concerns of cost estimates: the identification of major assumptions, the specification of secondary analytic assumptions, and the status of program factors.

A Comparison of Item Selection Procedures Using Different Ability Estimation Methods in Computerized Adaptive Testing Based on the Generalized Partial Credit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Tsung-Han

2010-01-01

Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a highly efficient alternative to the paper-and-pencil test. By selecting items that match examinees' ability levels, CAT not only can shorten test length and administration time but it can also increase measurement precision and reduce measurement error. In CAT, maximum information (MI) is the most…

The Impact of Non-attempted and Dually-Attempted Items on Person Abilities Using Item Response Theory

PubMed Central

Sideridis, Georgios D.; Tsaousis, Ioannis; Al Harbi, Khaleel

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to relate response strategy with person ability estimates. Two behavioral strategies were examined: (a) the strategy to skip items in order to save time on timed tests, and, (b) the strategy to select two responses on an item, with the hope that one of them may be considered correct. Participants were 4,422 individuals who were administered a standardized achievement measure related to math, biology, chemistry, and physics. In the present evaluation, only the physics subscale was employed. Two analyses were conducted: (a) a person-based one to identify differences between groups and potential correlates of those differences, and, (b) a measure-based analysis in order to identify the parts of the measure that were responsible for potential group differentiation. For (a) person abilities the 2-PL model was employed and later the 3-PL and 4-PL models in order to estimate upper and lower asymptotes of person abilities. For (b) differential item functioning, differential test functioning, and differential distractor functioning were investigated. Results indicated that there were significant differences between groups with completers having the highest ability compared to both non-attempters and dual responders. There were no significant differences between no-attempters and dual responders. The present findings have implications for response strategy efficacy and measure evaluation, revision, and construction. PMID:27790174

The Impact of Non-attempted and Dually-Attempted Items on Person Abilities Using Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Sideridis, Georgios D; Tsaousis, Ioannis; Al Harbi, Khaleel

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to relate response strategy with person ability estimates. Two behavioral strategies were examined: (a) the strategy to skip items in order to save time on timed tests, and, (b) the strategy to select two responses on an item, with the hope that one of them may be considered correct. Participants were 4,422 individuals who were administered a standardized achievement measure related to math, biology, chemistry, and physics. In the present evaluation, only the physics subscale was employed. Two analyses were conducted: (a) a person-based one to identify differences between groups and potential correlates of those differences, and, (b) a measure-based analysis in order to identify the parts of the measure that were responsible for potential group differentiation. For (a) person abilities the 2-PL model was employed and later the 3-PL and 4-PL models in order to estimate upper and lower asymptotes of person abilities. For (b) differential item functioning, differential test functioning, and differential distractor functioning were investigated. Results indicated that there were significant differences between groups with completers having the highest ability compared to both non-attempters and dual responders. There were no significant differences between no-attempters and dual responders. The present findings have implications for response strategy efficacy and measure evaluation, revision, and construction.

Prospective and retrospective time perception are related to mental time travel: evidence from Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

El Haj, Mohamad; Moroni, Christine; Samson, Séverine; Fasotti, Luciano; Allain, Philippe

2013-10-01

Unlike prospective time perception paradigms, in which participants are aware that they have to estimate forthcoming time, little is known about retrospective time perception in normal aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Our paper addresses this shortcoming by comparing prospective and retrospective time estimation in younger adults, older adults, and AD patients. In four prospective tasks (lasting 30s, 60s, 90s, or 120s) participants were asked to read a series of numbers and to provide a verbal estimation of the reading time. In four other retrospective tasks, they were not informed about time judgment until they were asked to provide a verbal estimation of four elapsed time intervals (lasting 30s, 60s, 90s, or 120s). AD participants gave shorter verbal time estimations than older adults and younger participants did, suggesting that time is perceived to pass quickly in these patients. For all participants, the duration of the retrospective tasks was underestimated as compared to the prospective tasks and both estimations were shorter than the real time interval. Prospective time estimation was further correlated with mental time travel, as measured with the Remember/Know paradigm. Mental time travel was even higher correlated with retrospective time estimation. Our findings shed light on the relationship between time perception and the ability to mentally project oneself into time, two skills contributing to human memory functioning. Finally, time perception deficits, as observed in AD patients, can be interpreted in terms of dramatic changes occurring in frontal lobes and hippocampus. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GCLAS: a graphical constituent loading analysis system

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKallip, T.E.; Koltun, G.F.; Gray, J.R.; Glysson, G.D.

2001-01-01

The U. S. Geological Survey has developed a program called GCLAS (Graphical Constituent Loading Analysis System) to aid in the computation of daily constituent loads transported in stream flow. Due to the relative paucity with which most water-quality data are collected, computation of daily constituent loads is moderately to highly dependent on human interpretation of the relation between stream hydraulics and constituent transport. GCLAS provides a visual environment for evaluating the relation between hydraulic and other covariate time series and the constituent chemograph. GCLAS replaces the computer program Sedcalc, which is the most recent USGS sanctioned tool for constructing sediment chemographs and computing suspended-sediment loads. Written in a portable language, GCLAS has an interactive graphical interface that permits easy entry of estimated values and provides new tools to aid in making those estimates. The use of a portable language for program development imparts a degree of computer platform independence that was difficult to obtain in the past, making implementation more straightforward within the USGS' s diverse computing environment. Some of the improvements introduced in GCLAS include (1) the ability to directly handle periods of zero or reverse flow, (2) the ability to analyze and apply coefficient adjustments to concentrations as a function of time, streamflow, or both, (3) the ability to compute discharges of constituents other than suspended sediment, (4) the ability to easily view data related to the chemograph at different levels of detail, and (5) the ability to readily display covariate time series data to provide enhanced visual cues for drawing the constituent chemograph.

Approximate number sense, symbolic number processing, or number-space mappings: what underlies mathematics achievement?

PubMed

Sasanguie, Delphine; Göbel, Silke M; Moll, Kristina; Smets, Karolien; Reynvoet, Bert

2013-03-01

In this study, the performance of typically developing 6- to 8-year-old children on an approximate number discrimination task, a symbolic comparison task, and a symbolic and nonsymbolic number line estimation task was examined. For the first time, children's performances on these basic cognitive number processing tasks were explicitly contrasted to investigate which of them is the best predictor of their future mathematical abilities. Math achievement was measured with a timed arithmetic test and with a general curriculum-based math test to address the additional question of whether the predictive association between the basic numerical abilities and mathematics achievement is dependent on which math test is used. Results revealed that performance on both mathematics achievement tests was best predicted by how well childrencompared digits. In addition, an association between performance on the symbolic number line estimation task and math achievement scores for the general curriculum-based math test measuring a broader spectrum of skills was found. Together, these results emphasize the importance of learning experiences with symbols for later math abilities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heart rate biofeedback fails to enhance children's ability to identify time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity.

PubMed

Conley, Marguerite M; Gastin, Paul B; Brown, Helen; Shaw, Christine

2011-03-01

Physical activity recommendations for children in several countries advise that all young people should accumulate at least 60 min of moderate to vigorous physical activity every day. Perceiving physical activity intensity, however, can be a difficult task for children and it is not clear whether children can identify their levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity in accordance with the recommended guidelines. This study aimed to (1) explore whether children can identify time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity; and (2) investigate whether heart rate biofeedback would improve children's ability to estimate time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity. Thirty seven children (15 boys and 22 girls, mean age 12.6 years) wore data recording Polar E600 heart rate monitors during eight physical education lessons. At the end of each lesson children's estimated time in zone was compared to their actual time in zone. During a six lesson Intervention phase, one class was assigned to a biofeedback group whilst the other class acted as the control group and received no heart rate biofeedback. Post-Intervention, students in the biofeedback group were no better than the control group at estimating time spent in zone (mean relative error of estimation biofeedback group: Pre-Intervention 41±32% to Post-Intervention 28±26%; control group: Pre-Intervention 40±39% to Post-Intervention 31±37%). Thus it seems that identifying time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity remains a complex task for children aged 11-13 even with the help of heart rate biofeedback. Copyright © 2010 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Variation and Combining Ability Analysis of Bruising Sensitivity in Agaricus bisporus

PubMed Central

Gao, Wei; Baars, Johan J. P.; Dolstra, Oene; Visser, Richard G. F.; Sonnenberg, Anton S. M.

2013-01-01

Advanced button mushroom cultivars that are less sensitive to mechanical bruising are required by the mushroom industry, where automated harvesting still cannot be used for the fresh mushroom market. The genetic variation in bruising sensitivity (BS) of Agaricus bisporus was studied through an incomplete set of diallel crosses to get insight in the heritability of BS and the combining ability of the parental lines used and, in this way, to estimate their breeding value. To this end nineteen homokaryotic lines recovered from wild strains and cultivars were inter-crossed in a diallel scheme. Fifty-one successful hybrids were grown under controlled conditions, and the BS of these hybrids was assessed. BS was shown to be a trait with a very high heritability. The results also showed that brown hybrids were generally less sensitive to bruising than white hybrids. The diallel scheme allowed to estimate the general combining ability (GCA) for each homokaryotic parental line and to estimate the specific combining ability (SCA) of each hybrid. The line with the lowest GCA is seen as the most attractive donor for improving resistance to bruising. The line gave rise to hybrids sensitive to bruising having the highest GCA value. The highest negative SCA possibly indicates heterosis effects for resistance to bruising. This study provides a foundation for estimating breeding value of parental lines to further study the genetic factors underlying bruising sensitivity and other quality-related traits, and to select potential parental lines for further heterosis breeding. The approach of studying combining ability in a diallel scheme was used for the first time in button mushroom breeding. PMID:24116171

An Investigation of the Standard Errors of Expected A Posteriori Ability Estimates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Ayala, R. J.; And Others

Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

Effects of Technology on Experienced Job Characteristics and Job Satisfaction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Ability to discriminate between odors (sense of smell) 23. Ability to discriminate between salty , sour, sweet (sense of taste ) 24. Ability to remember...Ability to estimate speed Ability to estimate quality Sense of touch Sense of smell Sense of taste Cognitive .833 Ability to remember names Ability to

Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Ashley J.; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.

2017-08-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

Field performance of three real-time moisture sensors in sandy loam and clay loam soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The study was conducted to evaluate HydraProbe (HyP), Campbell Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) and Watermarks (WM) moisture sensors for their ability to estimate water content based on calibrated neutron probe measurements. The three sensors were in-situ tested under natural weather conditions over ...

Functional dissociation between action and perception of object shape in developmental visual object agnosia.

PubMed

Freud, Erez; Ganel, Tzvi; Avidan, Galia; Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon

2016-03-01

According to the two visual systems model, the cortical visual system is segregated into a ventral pathway mediating object recognition, and a dorsal pathway mediating visuomotor control. In the present study we examined whether the visual control of action could develop normally even when visual perceptual abilities are compromised from early childhood onward. Using his fingers, LG, an individual with a rare developmental visual object agnosia, manually estimated (perceptual condition) the width of blocks that varied in width and length (but not in overall size), or simply picked them up across their width (grasping condition). LG's perceptual sensitivity to target width was profoundly impaired in the manual estimation task compared to matched controls. In contrast, the sensitivity to object shape during grasping, as measured by maximum grip aperture (MGA), the time to reach the MGA, the reaction time and the total movement time were all normal in LG. Further analysis, however, revealed that LG's sensitivity to object shape during grasping emerged at a later time stage during the movement compared to controls. Taken together, these results demonstrate a dissociation between action and perception of object shape, and also point to a distinction between different stages of the grasping movement, namely planning versus online control. Moreover, the present study implies that visuomotor abilities can develop normally even when perceptual abilities developed in a profoundly impaired fashion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The level and nature of autistic intelligence III: Inspection time.

PubMed

Barbeau, Elise B; Soulières, Isabelle; Dawson, Michelle; Zeffiro, Thomas A; Mottron, Laurent

2013-02-01

Across the autism spectrum, level of intelligence is highly dependent on the psychometric instrument used for assessment, and there are conflicting views concerning which measures best estimate autistic cognitive abilities. Inspection time is a processing speed measure associated with general intelligence in typical individuals. We therefore investigated autism spectrum performance on inspection time in relation to two different general intelligence tests. Autism spectrum individuals were divided into autistic and Asperger subgroups according to speech development history. Compared to a typical control group, mean inspection time for the autistic subgroup but not the Asperger subgroup was significantly shorter (by 31%). However, the shorter mean autistic inspection time was evident only when groups were matched on Wechsler IQ and disappeared when they were matched using Raven's Progressive Matrices. When autism spectrum abilities are compared to typical abilities, results may be influenced by speech development history as well as by the instrument used for intelligence matching. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Refinement of a Bias-Correction Procedure for the Weighted Likelihood Estimator of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-07-23

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming; Lu, Ting

2007-01-01

In practical applications of item response theory (IRT), item parameters are usually estimated first from a calibration sample. After treating these estimates as fixed and known, ability parameters are then estimated. However, the statistical inferences based on the estimated abilities can be misleading if the uncertainty of the item parameter…

A space-time look at two-phase estimation for improved annual inventory estimates

Treesearch

Jay Breidt; Jean Opsomer; Xiyue Liao; Gretchen Moisen

2015-01-01

Over the past several years, three sets of new temporal remote sensing data have become available improving FIA’s ability to detect, characterize and forecast land cover changes. First, historic Landsat data has been processed for the conterminous US to provide disturbance history, agents of change, and fitted spectral trajectories annually over the last 30+ years at...

Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

PubMed

Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

2008-12-01

Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

Real-time estimation of differential piston at the LBT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhm, Michael; Pott, Jörg-Uwe; Sawodny, Oliver; Herbst, Tom; Kürster, Martin

2014-07-01

In this paper, we present and compare different strategies to minimize the effects of telescope vibrations to the differential piston (OPD) for LINC/NIRVANA at the LBT using an accelerometer feedforward compensation approach. We summarize why this technology is of importance for LINC/NIRVANA, but also for future telescopes and instruments. We outline the estimation problem in general and its specifics at the LBT. Model based estimation and broadband filtering techniques can be used to solve the estimation task, each having its own advantages and disadvantages, which will be discussed. Simulation results and measurements at the LBT are shown to motivate and support our choice of the estimation algorithm for the instrument LINC/NIRVANA. We explain our laboratory setup aimed at imitating the vibration behaviour at the LBT in general, and the M2 as main contributor in particular, and we demonstrate the controller's ability to suppress vibrations in the frequency range of 8 Hz to 60 Hz. In this range, telescope vibrations are the most dominant disturbance to the optical path. For our measurements, we introduce a disturbance time series which has a frequency spectrum comparable to what can be measured at the LBT on a typical night. We show promising experimental results, indicating the ability to suppress differential piston induced by telescope vibrations by a factor of about 5 (RMS), which is significantly better than any currently commissioned system.

Geodetic positioning of the Aerospace Electronics Research Lab (ERL) Osborne Time Transfer Receiver (TTR) using the GPS NAVSTAR Block I satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Anthony S.

1990-01-01

Aerospace has routinely processed the Osborne Time Transfer Receiver (TTR) data for the purpose of monitoring the performance of ground and GPS atomic clocks in near real-time with on-line residual displays and characterizing clock stability with Allan Variance calculations. Recently, Aerospace added the ability to estimate the TTR's location by differentially correcting the TTR's location in the WGS84 reference system. This new feature is exercised on a set of TTR clock phase data and Sub-meter accurate station location estimates of the TTR at the Aerospace Electronic Research Lab (ERL) are obtained.

Mapping wildfire and clearcut harvest disturbances in boreal forests with Landsat time series data

Treesearch

Todd Schroeder; Michael A. Wulder; Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen

2011-01-01

Information regarding the extent, timing andmagnitude of forest disturbance are key inputs required for accurate estimation of the terrestrial carbon balance. Equally important for studying carbon dynamics is the ability to distinguish the cause or type of forest disturbance occurring on the landscape. Wildfire and timber harvesting are common disturbances occurring in...

Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by discretization and time-averaging in two-fluid model predictions

DOE PAGES

Syamlal, Madhava; Celik, Ismail B.; Benyahia, Sofiane

2017-07-12

The two-fluid model (TFM) has become a tool for the design and troubleshooting of industrial fluidized bed reactors. To use TFM for scale up with confidence, the uncertainty in its predictions must be quantified. Here, we study two sources of uncertainty: discretization and time-averaging. First, we show that successive grid refinement may not yield grid-independent transient quantities, including cross-section–averaged quantities. Successive grid refinement would yield grid-independent time-averaged quantities on sufficiently fine grids. A Richardson extrapolation can then be used to estimate the discretization error, and the grid convergence index gives an estimate of the uncertainty. Richardson extrapolation may not workmore » for industrial-scale simulations that use coarse grids. We present an alternative method for coarse grids and assess its ability to estimate the discretization error. Second, we assess two methods (autocorrelation and binning) and find that the autocorrelation method is more reliable for estimating the uncertainty introduced by time-averaging TFM data.« less

Self-estimation of physical ability in stepping over an obstacle is not mediated by visual height perception: a comparison between young and older adults.

PubMed

Sakurai, Ryota; Fujiwara, Yoshinori; Ishihara, Masami; Yasunaga, Masashi; Ogawa, Susumu; Suzuki, Hiroyuki; Imanaka, Kuniyasu

2017-07-01

Older adults tend to overestimate their step-over ability. However, it is unclear as to whether this is caused by inaccurate self-estimation of physical ability or inaccurate perception of height. We, therefore, measured both visual height perception ability and self-estimation of step-over ability among young and older adults. Forty-seven older and 16 young adults performed a height perception test (HPT) and a step-over test (SOT). Participants visually judged the height of vertical bars from distances of 7 and 1 m away in the HPT, then self-estimated and, subsequently, actually performed a step-over action in the SOT. The results showed no significant difference between young and older adults in visual height perception. In the SOT, young adults tended to underestimate their step-over ability, whereas older adults either overestimated their abilities or underestimated them to a lesser extent than did the young adults. Moreover, visual height perception was not correlated with the self-estimation of step-over ability in both young and older adults. These results suggest that the self-overestimation of step-over ability which appeared in some healthy older adults may not be caused by the nature of visual height perception, but by other factor(s), such as the likely age-related nature of self-estimation of physical ability, per se.

Monitoring tropical forest degradation using time series analysis of Landsat and Sentinel-2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, E.; Woodcock, C. E.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest loss is expected to be contribute 5 to 15% of anthropogenic carbon emissions in the coming century. The wide range of expected emissions is indicative of the large uncertainties that exist in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Total carbon loss from forest conversion consists of loss from deforestation plus loss from degradation. There have been significant improvements in the ability to relate plot-level estimates of carbon stocks to remote sensing-derived calculations of deforestation to estimate total carbon emissions from forest loss. These approaches, however, have been limited in their ability to assess the magnitude, extent, and overall impact of forest degradation. The causes of tropical degradation include selective logging, fuel wood collection, fires, and the development of forest plantations. This study demonstrates a newly developed methodology for detecting subtle changes in forest structure and condition using time series analysis of Landsat and Sentinel-2 data. The research shows how the ability to detect small changes in forest biomass, in addition to changes in forest composition, can be improved by incorporating historical context and multi-sensor data fusion. Results are demonstrated from two climatically unique tropical forests in Thailand and Brazil.

Inversion for Refractivity Parameters Using a Dynamic Adaptive Cuckoo Search with Crossover Operator Algorithm

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhihua; Sheng, Zheng; Shi, Hanqing; Fan, Zhiqiang

2016-01-01

Using the RFC technique to estimate refractivity parameters is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. In this paper, an improved cuckoo search (CS) algorithm is proposed to deal with this problem. To enhance the performance of the CS algorithm, a parameter dynamic adaptive operation and crossover operation were integrated into the standard CS (DACS-CO). Rechenberg's 1/5 criteria combined with learning factor were used to control the parameter dynamic adaptive adjusting process. The crossover operation of genetic algorithm was utilized to guarantee the population diversity. The new hybrid algorithm has better local search ability and contributes to superior performance. To verify the ability of the DACS-CO algorithm to estimate atmospheric refractivity parameters, the simulation data and real radar clutter data are both implemented. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the DACS-CO algorithm can provide an effective method for near-real-time estimation of the atmospheric refractivity profile from radar clutter. PMID:27212938

List of U.S. Army Research Institute Research and Technical Publications for Public Release/Unlimited Distribution, Fiscal Year 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-01

times were shorter, collisions were fewer, and more targets were photographed. Effects of video game experience and spatial ability were also...Control Spatial ability, video game , user-interface, remote control, robot TR 1230 The Perception and Estimation of Egocentric Distance in Real and...development by RDECOM-STTC, and ARI is using the AW-VTT to research challenges in the use of distributed, game -based simulations for training

Improving the detection of tectonic transients in Japan by accounting for Earth's deformation response to surface mass loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, H. R.; Simons, M.; Moore, A. W.; Owen, S. E.; Rivera, L. A.

2016-12-01

We explore the contributions of oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic mass loading to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-inferred observations of surface displacements in Japan. Surface mass loading (SML) generates mm- to cm-level deformation of the solid Earth on time scales of hours to years, which exceeds the measurement uncertainties of most GNSS position estimates. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of the prediction and empirical estimation of SML response, we aim to reduce the variance of GNSS time series and therefore enhance the ability to resolve subtle tectonic signals, such as aseismic transients associated with subduction zone processes. Using the GIPSY software in precise point positioning mode, we estimate time series of sub-daily receiver positions for the GNSS Earth Observation Network System (GEONET) in Japan. We also model the Earth's elastic deformation response to a variety of surface mass loads, including loads of atmospheric (e.g., ECMWF) and oceanic (e.g., TPXO8-Atlas, ECCO2) origin. We extract periodic signals, such as the ocean tides and seasonal variations in hydrological loading, using harmonic analysis. Deformation caused by non-periodic loads, such as non-tidal oceanic and atmospheric loads, can be predicted and removed to further reduce the variance. We seek to streamline the workflow for estimating SML-induced surface displacements from a variety of sources in order to account for loading signals in routine GNSS data processing, thereby improving the ability to assess the mechanics of plate boundaries.

Non-intrusive parameter identification procedure user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, G. D.; Jewell, W. F.

1983-01-01

Written in standard FORTRAN, NAS is capable of identifying linear as well as nonlinear relations between input and output parameters; the only restriction is that the input/output relation be linear with respect to the unknown coefficients of the estimation equations. The output of the identification algorithm can be specified to be in either the time domain (i.e., the estimation equation coefficients) or in the frequency domain (i.e., a frequency response of the estimation equation). The frame length ("window") over which the identification procedure is to take place can be specified to be any portion of the input time history, thereby allowing the freedom to start and stop the identification procedure within a time history. There also is an option which allows a sliding window, which gives a moving average over the time history. The NAS software also includes the ability to identify several assumed solutions simultaneously for the same or different input data.

Effort-reward imbalance and work ability: cross-sectional and longitudinal findings from the Second German Sociomedical Panel of Employees

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although data from longitudinal studies are sparse, effort-reward imbalance (ERI) seems to affect work ability. However, the potential pathway from restricted work ability to ERI must also be considered. Therefore, the aim of our study was to analyse cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ERI and work ability and vice versa. Methods Data come from the Second German Sociomedical Panel of Employees. Logistic regression models were estimated to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations. The sample used to predict new cases of poor or moderate work ability was restricted to cases with good or excellent work ability at baseline. The sample used to predict new cases of ERI was restricted to persons without ERI at baseline. Results The cross-sectional analysis included 1501 full-time employed persons. The longitudinal analyses considered 600 participants with good or excellent baseline work ability and 666 participants without baseline ERI, respectively. After adjustment for socio-demographic variables, health-related behaviour and factors of the work environment, ERI was cross-sectionally associated with poor or moderate work ability (OR = 1.980; 95% CI: 1.428 to 2.747). Longitudinally, persons with ERI had 2.1 times higher odds of poor or moderate work ability after one year (OR = 2.093; 95% CI: 1.047 to 4.183). Conversely, persons with poor or moderate work ability had 2.6 times higher odds of an ERI after one year (OR = 2.573; 95% CI: 1.314 to 5.041). Conclusions Interventions that enable workers to cope with ERI or address indicators of ERI directly could promote the maintenance of work ability. Integration management programmes for persons with poor work ability should also consider their psychosocial demands. PMID:23067110

Implementation Of Fuzzy Approach To Improve Time Estimation [Case Study Of A Thermal Power Plant Is Considered

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Moumita; Pradhan, Dinesh; Bandyopadhyay, G.

2010-10-01

Fuzzy System has demonstrated their ability to solve different kinds of problem in various application domains. There is an increasing interest to apply fuzzy concept to improve tasks of any system. Here case study of a thermal power plant is considered. Existing time estimation represents time to complete tasks. Applying fuzzy linear approach it becomes clear that after each confidence level least time is taken to complete tasks. As time schedule is less than less amount of cost is needed. Objective of this paper is to show how one system becomes more efficient in applying Fuzzy Linear approach. In this paper we want to optimize the time estimation to perform all tasks in appropriate time schedules. For the case study, optimistic time (to), pessimistic time (tp), most likely time(tm) is considered as data collected from thermal power plant. These time estimates help to calculate expected time(te) which represents time to complete particular task to considering all happenings. Using project evaluation and review technique (PERT) and critical path method (CPM) concept critical path duration (CPD) of this project is calculated. This tells that the probability of fifty percent of the total tasks can be completed in fifty days. Using critical path duration and standard deviation of the critical path, total completion of project can be completed easily after applying normal distribution. Using trapezoidal rule from four time estimates (to, tm, tp, te), we can calculate defuzzyfied value of time estimates. For range of fuzzy, we consider four confidence interval level say 0.4, 0.6, 0.8,1. From our study, it is seen that time estimates at confidence level between 0.4 and 0.8 gives the better result compared to other confidence levels.

Does improved decision-making ability reduce the physiological demands of game-based activities in field sport athletes?

PubMed

Gabbett, Tim J; Carius, Josh; Mulvey, Mike

2008-11-01

This study investigated the effects of video-based perceptual training on pattern recognition and pattern prediction ability in elite field sport athletes and determined whether enhanced perceptual skills influenced the physiological demands of game-based activities. Sixteen elite women soccer players (mean +/- SD age, 18.3 +/- 2.8 years) were allocated to either a video-based perceptual training group (N = 8) or a control group (N = 8). The video-based perceptual training group watched video footage of international women's soccer matches. Twelve training sessions, each 15 minutes in duration, were conducted during a 4-week period. Players performed assessments of speed (5-, 10-, and 20-m sprint), repeated-sprint ability (6 x 20-m sprints, with active recovery on a 15-second cycle), estimated maximal aerobic power (V O2 max, multistage fitness test), and a game-specific video-based perceptual test of pattern recognition and pattern prediction before and after the 4 weeks of video-based perceptual training. The on-field assessments included time-motion analysis completed on all players during a standardized 45-minute small-sided training game, and assessments of passing, shooting, and dribbling decision-making ability. No significant changes were detected in speed, repeated-sprint ability, or estimated V O2 max during the training period. However, video-based perceptual training improved decision accuracy and reduced the number of recall errors, indicating improved game awareness and decision-making ability. Importantly, the improvements in pattern recognition and prediction ability transferred to on-field improvements in passing, shooting, and dribbling decision-making skills. No differences were detected between groups for the time spent standing, walking, jogging, striding, and sprinting during the small-sided training game. These findings demonstrate that video-based perceptual training can be used effectively to enhance the decision-making ability of field sport athletes; however, it has no effect on the physiological demands of game-based activities.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate is an early biomarker of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Candela-Toha, Ángel; Pardo, María Carmen; Pérez, Teresa; Muriel, Alfonso; Zamora, Javier

2018-04-20

and objective Acute kidney injury (AKI) diagnosis is still based on serum creatinine and diuresis. However, increases in creatinine are typically delayed 48h or longer after injury. Our aim was to determine the utility of routine postoperative renal function blood tests, to predict AKI one or 2days in advance in a cohort of cardiac surgery patients. Using a prospective database, we selected a sample of patients who had undergone major cardiac surgery between January 2002 and December 2013. The ability of the parameters to predict AKI was based on Acute Kidney Injury Network serum creatinine criteria. A cohort of 3,962 cases was divided into 2groups of similar size, one being exploratory and the other a validation sample. The exploratory group was used to show primary objectives and the validation group to confirm results. The ability to predict AKI of several kidney function parameters measured in routine postoperative blood tests, was measured with time-dependent ROC curves. The primary endpoint was time from measurement to AKI diagnosis. AKI developed in 610 (30.8%) and 623 (31.4%) patients in the exploratory and validation samples, respectively. Estimated glomerular filtration rate using the MDRD-4 equation showed the best AKI prediction capacity, with values for the AUC ROC curves between 0.700 and 0.946. We obtained different cut-off values for estimated glomerular filtration rate depending on the degree of AKI severity and on the time elapsed between surgery and parameter measurement. Results were confirmed in the validation sample. Postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate using the MDRD-4 equation showed good ability to predict AKI following cardiac surgery one or 2days in advance. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Double Bright Band Observations with High-Resolution Vertically Pointing Radar, Lidar, and Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emory, Amber E.; Demoz, Belay; Vermeesch, Kevin; Hicks, Michael

2014-01-01

On 11 May 2010, an elevated temperature inversion associated with an approaching warm front produced two melting layers simultaneously, which resulted in two distinct bright bands as viewed from the ER-2 Doppler radar system, a vertically pointing, coherent X band radar located in Greenbelt, MD. Due to the high temporal resolution of this radar system, an increase in altitude of the melting layer of approximately 1.2 km in the time span of 4 min was captured. The double bright band feature remained evident for approximately 17 min, until the lower atmosphere warmed enough to dissipate the lower melting layer. This case shows the relatively rapid evolution of freezing levels in response to an advancing warm front over a 2 h time period and the descent of an elevated warm air mass with time. Although observations of double bright bands are somewhat rare, the ability to identify this phenomenon is important for rainfall estimation from spaceborne sensors because algorithms employing the restriction of a radar bright band to a constant height, especially when sampling across frontal systems, will limit the ability to accurately estimate rainfall.

Double bright band observations with high-resolution vertically pointing radar, lidar, and profilers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emory, Amber E.; Demoz, Belay; Vermeesch, Kevin; Hicks, Micheal

2014-07-01

On 11 May 2010, an elevated temperature inversion associated with an approaching warm front produced two melting layers simultaneously, which resulted in two distinct bright bands as viewed from the ER-2 Doppler radar system, a vertically pointing, coherent X band radar located in Greenbelt, MD. Due to the high temporal resolution of this radar system, an increase in altitude of the melting layer of approximately 1.2 km in the time span of 4 min was captured. The double bright band feature remained evident for approximately 17 min, until the lower atmosphere warmed enough to dissipate the lower melting layer. This case shows the relatively rapid evolution of freezing levels in response to an advancing warm front over a 2 h time period and the descent of an elevated warm air mass with time. Although observations of double bright bands are somewhat rare, the ability to identify this phenomenon is important for rainfall estimation from spaceborne sensors because algorithms employing the restriction of a radar bright band to a constant height, especially when sampling across frontal systems, will limit the ability to accurately estimate rainfall.

Time-based and event-based prospective memory in autism spectrum disorder: the roles of executive function and theory of mind, and time-estimation.

PubMed

Williams, David; Boucher, Jill; Lind, Sophie; Jarrold, Christopher

2013-07-01

Prospective memory (remembering to carry out an action in the future) has been studied relatively little in ASD. We explored time-based (carry out an action at a pre-specified time) and event-based (carry out an action upon the occurrence of a pre-specified event) prospective memory, as well as possible cognitive correlates, among 21 intellectually high-functioning children with ASD, and 21 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison children. We found impaired time-based, but undiminished event-based, prospective memory among children with ASD. In the ASD group, time-based prospective memory performance was associated significantly with diminished theory of mind, but not with diminished cognitive flexibility. There was no evidence that time-estimation ability contributed to time-based prospective memory impairment in ASD.

Improving cluster-based missing value estimation of DNA microarray data.

PubMed

Brás, Lígia P; Menezes, José C

2007-06-01

We present a modification of the weighted K-nearest neighbours imputation method (KNNimpute) for missing values (MVs) estimation in microarray data based on the reuse of estimated data. The method was called iterative KNN imputation (IKNNimpute) as the estimation is performed iteratively using the recently estimated values. The estimation efficiency of IKNNimpute was assessed under different conditions (data type, fraction and structure of missing data) by the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and the correlation coefficients between estimated and true values, and compared with that of other cluster-based estimation methods (KNNimpute and sequential KNN). We further investigated the influence of imputation on the detection of differentially expressed genes using SAM by examining the differentially expressed genes that are lost after MV estimation. The performance measures give consistent results, indicating that the iterative procedure of IKNNimpute can enhance the prediction ability of cluster-based methods in the presence of high missing rates, in non-time series experiments and in data sets comprising both time series and non-time series data, because the information of the genes having MVs is used more efficiently and the iterative procedure allows refining the MV estimates. More importantly, IKNN has a smaller detrimental effect on the detection of differentially expressed genes.

Real-time imaging of human brain function by near-infrared spectroscopy using an adaptive general linear model

PubMed Central

Abdelnour, A. Farras; Huppert, Theodore

2009-01-01

Near-infrared spectroscopy is a non-invasive neuroimaging method which uses light to measure changes in cerebral blood oxygenation associated with brain activity. In this work, we demonstrate the ability to record and analyze images of brain activity in real-time using a 16-channel continuous wave optical NIRS system. We propose a novel real-time analysis framework using an adaptive Kalman filter and a state–space model based on a canonical general linear model of brain activity. We show that our adaptive model has the ability to estimate single-trial brain activity events as we apply this method to track and classify experimental data acquired during an alternating bilateral self-paced finger tapping task. PMID:19457389

Estimation of the Horizon in Photographed Outdoor Scenes by Human and Machine

PubMed Central

Herdtweck, Christian; Wallraven, Christian

2013-01-01

We present three experiments on horizon estimation. In Experiment 1 we verify the human ability to estimate the horizon in static images from only visual input. Estimates are given without time constraints with emphasis on precision. The resulting estimates are used as baseline to evaluate horizon estimates from early visual processes. Stimuli are presented for only ms and then masked to purge visual short-term memory and enforcing estimates to rely on early processes, only. The high agreement between estimates and the lack of a training effect shows that enough information about viewpoint is extracted in the first few hundred milliseconds to make accurate horizon estimation possible. In Experiment 3 we investigate several strategies to estimate the horizon in the computer and compare human with machine “behavior” for different image manipulations and image scene types. PMID:24349073

A Comparison of a Bayesian and a Maximum Likelihood Tailored Testing Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinley, Robert L.; Reckase, Mark D.

A study was conducted to compare tailored testing procedures based on a Bayesian ability estimation technique and on a maximum likelihood ability estimation technique. The Bayesian tailored testing procedure selected items so as to minimize the posterior variance of the ability estimate distribution, while the maximum likelihood tailored testing…

Blind estimation of reverberation time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnam, Rama; Jones, Douglas L.; Wheeler, Bruce C.; O'Brien, William D.; Lansing, Charissa R.; Feng, Albert S.

2003-11-01

The reverberation time (RT) is an important parameter for characterizing the quality of an auditory space. Sounds in reverberant environments are subject to coloration. This affects speech intelligibility and sound localization. Many state-of-the-art audio signal processing algorithms, for example in hearing-aids and telephony, are expected to have the ability to characterize the listening environment, and turn on an appropriate processing strategy accordingly. Thus, a method for characterization of room RT based on passively received microphone signals represents an important enabling technology. Current RT estimators, such as Schroeder's method, depend on a controlled sound source, and thus cannot produce an online, blind RT estimate. Here, a method for estimating RT without prior knowledge of sound sources or room geometry is presented. The diffusive tail of reverberation was modeled as an exponentially damped Gaussian white noise process. The time-constant of the decay, which provided a measure of the RT, was estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure. The estimates were obtained continuously, and an order-statistics filter was used to extract the most likely RT from the accumulated estimates. The procedure was illustrated for connected speech. Results obtained for simulated and real room data are in good agreement with the real RT values.

Online estimation of room reverberation time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnam, Rama; Jones, Douglas L.; Wheeler, Bruce C.; Feng, Albert S.

2003-04-01

The reverberation time (RT) is an important parameter for characterizing the quality of an auditory space. Sounds in reverberant environments are subject to coloration. This affects speech intelligibility and sound localization. State-of-the-art signal processing algorithms for hearing aids are expected to have the ability to evaluate the characteristics of the listening environment and turn on an appropriate processing strategy accordingly. Thus, a method for the characterization of room RT based on passively received microphone signals represents an important enabling technology. Current RT estimators, such as Schroeder's method or regression, depend on a controlled sound source, and thus cannot produce an online, blind RT estimate. Here, we describe a method for estimating RT without prior knowledge of sound sources or room geometry. The diffusive tail of reverberation was modeled as an exponentially damped Gaussian white noise process. The time constant of the decay, which provided a measure of the RT, was estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure. The estimates were obtained continuously, and an order-statistics filter was used to extract the most likely RT from the accumulated estimates. The procedure was illustrated for connected speech. Results obtained for simulated and real room data are in good agreement with the real RT values.

A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

PubMed

Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

2007-10-01

The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

Prospects for genomic selection in cassava breeding

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop in the tropics. Genomic selection (GS) has been implemented at three breeding institutions in Africa in order to reduce cycle times. Initial studies provided promising estimates of predictive abilities. Here, we expand on p...

On the asymptotic standard error of a class of robust estimators of ability in dichotomous item response models.

PubMed

Magis, David

2014-11-01

In item response theory, the classical estimators of ability are highly sensitive to response disturbances and can return strongly biased estimates of the true underlying ability level. Robust methods were introduced to lessen the impact of such aberrant responses on the estimation process. The computation of asymptotic (i.e., large-sample) standard errors (ASE) for these robust estimators, however, has not yet been fully considered. This paper focuses on a broad class of robust ability estimators, defined by an appropriate selection of the weight function and the residual measure, for which the ASE is derived from the theory of estimating equations. The maximum likelihood (ML) and the robust estimators, together with their estimated ASEs, are then compared in a simulation study by generating random guessing disturbances. It is concluded that both the estimators and their ASE perform similarly in the absence of random guessing, while the robust estimator and its estimated ASE are less biased and outperform their ML counterparts in the presence of random guessing with large impact on the item response process. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Do Self-Efficacy and Ability Self-Estimate Scores Reflect Distinct Facets of Ability Judgments?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Jo-Ida C.; Bubany, Shawn T.

2008-01-01

Vocational psychology has generated a number of concepts and assessment instruments considered to reflect ability self-concept (i.e., one's view of one's own abilities) relevant to career development. These concepts and measures often are categorized as either self efficacy beliefs or self-estimated (i.e., self-rated, self-evaluated) abilities.…

Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alan G.; Weygandt, Stephen S.; Schwartz, Barry; Murphy, James R.

2009-01-01

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty.

System Analysis and Design of a Low-Cost Micromechanical Seeker System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching...who devoted a valuable amount of time to advising me with academic coursework as well as thesis research. Dan, your attention to detail and ability...never have come to be. Many thanks to Sean George, who sacrificed his valuable time to guide me through constructing the projectile flight simulation

A comparison of the abilities of the USLE-M, RUSLE2 and WEPP to model event erosion from bare fallow areas.

PubMed

Kinnell, P I A

2017-10-15

Traditionally, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the revised version of it (RUSLE) have been applied to predicting the long term average soil loss produced by rainfall erosion in many parts of the world. Overtime, it has been recognized that there is a need to predict soil losses over shorter time scales and this has led to the development of WEPP and RUSLE2 which can be used to predict soil losses generated by individual rainfall events. Data currently exists that enables the RUSLE2, WEPP and the USLE-M to estimate historic soil losses from bare fallow runoff and soil loss plots recorded in the USLE database. Comparisons of the abilities of the USLE-M and RUSLE2 to estimate event soil losses from bare fallow were undertaken under circumstances where both models produced the same total soil loss as observed for sets of erosion events on 4 different plots at 4 different locations. Likewise, comparisons of the abilities of the USLE-M and WEPP to model event soil loss from bare fallow were undertaken for sets of erosion events on 4 plots at 4 different locations. Despite being calibrated specifically for each plot, WEPP produced the worst estimates of event soil loss for all the 4 plots. Generally, the USLE-M using measured runoff to calculate the product of the runoff ratio, storm kinetic energy and the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity produced the best estimates. As to be expected, ability of the USLE-M to estimate event soil loss was reduced when runoff predicted by either RUSLE2 or WEPP was used. Despite this, the USLE-M using runoff predicted by WEPP estimated event soil loss better than WEPP. RUSLE2 also outperformed WEPP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation abilities of large numerosities in Kindergartners

PubMed Central

Mejias, Sandrine; Schiltz, Christine

2013-01-01

The approximate number system (ANS) is thought to be a building block for the elaboration of formal mathematics. However, little is known about how this core system develops and if it can be influenced by external factors at a young age (before the child enters formal numeracy education). The purpose of this study was to examine numerical magnitude representations of 5–6 year old children at 2 different moments of Kindergarten considering children's early number competence as well as schools' socio-economic index (SEI). This study investigated estimation abilities of large numerosities using symbolic and non-symbolic output formats (8–64). In addition, we assessed symbolic and non-symbolic early number competence (1–12) at the end of the 2nd (N = 42) and the 3rd (N = 32) Kindergarten grade. By letting children freely produce estimates we observed surprising estimation abilities at a very young age (from 5 year on) extending far beyond children's symbolic explicit knowledge. Moreover, the time of testing has an impact on the ANS accuracy since 3rd Kindergarteners were more precise in both estimation tasks. Additionally, children who presented better exact symbolic knowledge were also those with the most refined ANS. However, this was true only for 3rd Kindergarteners who were a few months from receiving math instructions. In a similar vein, higher SEI positively impacted only the oldest children's estimation abilities whereas it played a role for exact early number competences already in 2nd and 3rd graders. Our results support the view that approximate numerical representations are linked to exact number competence in young children before the start of formal math education and might thus serve as building blocks for mathematical knowledge. Since this core number system was also sensitive to external components such as the SEI this implies that it can most probably be targeted and refined through specific educational strategies from preschool on. PMID:24009591

Validation of the alternating conditional estimation algorithm for estimation of flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model with nonlinear constraints on the parameters.

PubMed

Wynant, Willy; Abrahamowicz, Michal

2016-11-01

Standard optimization algorithms for maximizing likelihood may not be applicable to the estimation of those flexible multivariable models that are nonlinear in their parameters. For applications where the model's structure permits separating estimation of mutually exclusive subsets of parameters into distinct steps, we propose the alternating conditional estimation (ACE) algorithm. We validate the algorithm, in simulations, for estimation of two flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model where the standard maximum partial likelihood estimation does not apply, with simultaneous modeling of (1) nonlinear and time-dependent effects of continuous covariates on the hazard, and (2) nonlinear interaction and main effects of the same variable. We also apply the algorithm in real-life analyses to estimate nonlinear and time-dependent effects of prognostic factors for mortality in colon cancer. Analyses of both simulated and real-life data illustrate good statistical properties of the ACE algorithm and its ability to yield new potentially useful insights about the data structure. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

On the Relationships between Jeffreys Modal and Weighted Likelihood Estimation of Ability under Logistic IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

2012-01-01

This paper focuses on two estimators of ability with logistic item response theory models: the Bayesian modal (BM) estimator and the weighted likelihood (WL) estimator. For the BM estimator, Jeffreys' prior distribution is considered, and the corresponding estimator is referred to as the Jeffreys modal (JM) estimator. It is established that under…

The Martian: Examining Human Physical Judgments across Virtual Gravity Fields.

PubMed

Ye, Tian; Qi, Siyuan; Kubricht, James; Zhu, Yixin; Lu, Hongjing; Zhu, Song-Chun

2017-04-01

This paper examines how humans adapt to novel physical situations with unknown gravitational acceleration in immersive virtual environments. We designed four virtual reality experiments with different tasks for participants to complete: strike a ball to hit a target, trigger a ball to hit a target, predict the landing location of a projectile, and estimate the flight duration of a projectile. The first two experiments compared human behavior in the virtual environment with real-world performance reported in the literature. The last two experiments aimed to test the human ability to adapt to novel gravity fields by measuring their performance in trajectory prediction and time estimation tasks. The experiment results show that: 1) based on brief observation of a projectile's initial trajectory, humans are accurate at predicting the landing location even under novel gravity fields, and 2) humans' time estimation in a familiar earth environment fluctuates around the ground truth flight duration, although the time estimation in unknown gravity fields indicates a bias toward earth's gravity.

The ABCs of Math: A Genetic Analysis of Mathematics and Its Links With Reading Ability and General Cognitive Ability

PubMed Central

Hart, Sara A.; Petrill, Stephen A.; Thompson, Lee A.; Plomin, Robert

2009-01-01

The goal of this first major report from the Western Reserve Reading Project Math component is to explore the etiology of the relationship among tester-administered measures of mathematics ability, reading ability, and general cognitive ability. Data are available on 314 pairs of monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins analyzed across 5 waves of assessment. Univariate analyses provide a range of estimates of genetic (h2 = .00 –.63) and shared (c2 = .15–.52) environmental influences across math calculation, fluency, and problem solving measures. Multivariate analyses indicate genetic overlap between math problem solving with general cognitive ability and reading decoding, whereas math fluency shares significant genetic overlap with reading fluency and general cognitive ability. Further, math fluency has unique genetic influences. In general, math ability has shared environmental overlap with general cognitive ability and decoding. These results indicate that aspects of math that include problem solving have different genetic and environmental influences than math calculation. Moreover, math fluency, a timed measure of calculation, is the only measured math ability with unique genetic influences. PMID:20157630

Career Interests and Self-Estimated Abilities of Young Adults with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Sherri; Unkefer, Lesley Craig; Cichy, Bryan Ervin; Peper, Christine; Juang, Ju-Ping

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to ascertain vocational interests and self-estimated work-relevant abilities of young adults with disabilities. Results showed that young adults with both low incidence and high incidence disabilities have a wide range of interests and self-estimated work-relevant abilities that are comparable to those in the general…

A Note on the Reliability Coefficients for Item Response Model-Based Ability Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seonghoon

2012-01-01

Assuming item parameters on a test are known constants, the reliability coefficient for item response theory (IRT) ability estimates is defined for a population of examinees in two different ways: as (a) the product-moment correlation between ability estimates on two parallel forms of a test and (b) the squared correlation between the true…

Trial-dependent psychometric functions accounting for perceptual learning in 2-AFC discrimination tasks.

PubMed

Kattner, Florian; Cochrane, Aaron; Green, C Shawn

2017-09-01

The majority of theoretical models of learning consider learning to be a continuous function of experience. However, most perceptual learning studies use thresholds estimated by fitting psychometric functions to independent blocks, sometimes then fitting a parametric function to these block-wise estimated thresholds. Critically, such approaches tend to violate the basic principle that learning is continuous through time (e.g., by aggregating trials into large "blocks" for analysis that each assume stationarity, then fitting learning functions to these aggregated blocks). To address this discrepancy between base theory and analysis practice, here we instead propose fitting a parametric function to thresholds from each individual trial. In particular, we implemented a dynamic psychometric function whose parameters were allowed to change continuously with each trial, thus parameterizing nonstationarity. We fit the resulting continuous time parametric model to data from two different perceptual learning tasks. In nearly every case, the quality of the fits derived from the continuous time parametric model outperformed the fits derived from a nonparametric approach wherein separate psychometric functions were fit to blocks of trials. Because such a continuous trial-dependent model of perceptual learning also offers a number of additional advantages (e.g., the ability to extrapolate beyond the observed data; the ability to estimate performance on individual critical trials), we suggest that this technique would be a useful addition to each psychophysicist's analysis toolkit.

Improving the Reliability of Student Scores from Speeded Assessments: An Illustration of Conditional Item Response Theory Using a Computer-Administered Measure of Vocabulary.

PubMed

Petscher, Yaacov; Mitchell, Alison M; Foorman, Barbara R

2015-01-01

A growing body of literature suggests that response latency, the amount of time it takes an individual to respond to an item, may be an important factor to consider when using assessment data to estimate the ability of an individual. Considering that tests of passage and list fluency are being adapted to a computer administration format, it is possible that accounting for individual differences in response times may be an increasingly feasible option to strengthen the precision of individual scores. The present research evaluated the differential reliability of scores when using classical test theory and item response theory as compared to a conditional item response model which includes response time as an item parameter. Results indicated that the precision of student ability scores increased by an average of 5 % when using the conditional item response model, with greater improvements for those who were average or high ability. Implications for measurement models of speeded assessments are discussed.

Improving the Reliability of Student Scores from Speeded Assessments: An Illustration of Conditional Item Response Theory Using a Computer-Administered Measure of Vocabulary

PubMed Central

Petscher, Yaacov; Mitchell, Alison M.; Foorman, Barbara R.

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature suggests that response latency, the amount of time it takes an individual to respond to an item, may be an important factor to consider when using assessment data to estimate the ability of an individual. Considering that tests of passage and list fluency are being adapted to a computer administration format, it is possible that accounting for individual differences in response times may be an increasingly feasible option to strengthen the precision of individual scores. The present research evaluated the differential reliability of scores when using classical test theory and item response theory as compared to a conditional item response model which includes response time as an item parameter. Results indicated that the precision of student ability scores increased by an average of 5 % when using the conditional item response model, with greater improvements for those who were average or high ability. Implications for measurement models of speeded assessments are discussed. PMID:27721568

“Estimating Regional Background Air Quality using Space/Time Ordinary Kriging to Support Exposure Studies”

EPA Science Inventory

Local-scale dispersion models are increasingly being used to perform exposure assessments. These types of models, while able to characterize local-scale air quality at increasing spatial scale, however, lack the ability to include background concentration in their overall estimat...

75 FR 8995 - Agency Information Collection Activities: New Collection, Comments Requested

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-26

... Under Review: New collection; InfraGard Knowledge/Skills/Abilities Profile Questionnaire. The Department... submitting the following information collection requests to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for... contained in this notice, especially the estimated public burden and associated response time, should be...

Effects of spatially variable resolution on field-scale estimates of tracer concentration from electrical inversions using Archie's law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singha, Kamini; Gorelick, Steven M.

2006-01-01

Two important mechanisms affect our ability to estimate solute concentrations quantitatively from the inversion of field-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data: (1) the spatially variable physical processes that govern the flow of current as well as the variation of physical properties in space and (2) the overparameterization of inverse models, which requires the imposition of a smoothing constraint (regularization) to facilitate convergence of the inverse solution. Based on analyses of field and synthetic data, we find that the ability of ERT to recover the 3D shape and magnitudes of a migrating conductive target is spatially variable. Additionally, the application of Archie's law to tomograms from field ERT data produced solute concentrations that are consistently less than 10% of point measurements collected in the field and estimated from transport modeling. Estimates of concentration from ERT using Archie's law only fit measured solute concentrations if the apparent formation factor is varied with space and time and allowed to take on unreasonably high values. Our analysis suggests that the inability to find a single petrophysical relation in space and time between concentration and electrical resistivity is largely an effect of two properties of ERT surveys: (1) decreased sensitivity of ERT to detect the target plume with increasing distance from the electrodes and (2) the smoothing imprint of regularization used in inversion.

Ongoing behavior predicts perceptual report of interval duration

PubMed Central

Gouvêa, Thiago S.; Monteiro, Tiago; Soares, Sofia; Atallah, Bassam V.; Paton, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

The ability to estimate the passage of time is essential for adaptive behavior in complex environments. Yet, it is not known how the brain encodes time over the durations necessary to explain animal behavior. Under temporally structured reinforcement schedules, animals tend to develop temporally structured behavior, and interval timing has been suggested to be accomplished by learning sequences of behavioral states. If this is true, trial to trial fluctuations in behavioral sequences should be predictive of fluctuations in time estimation. We trained rodents in an duration categorization task while continuously monitoring their behavior with a high speed camera. Animals developed highly reproducible behavioral sequences during the interval being timed. Moreover, those sequences were often predictive of perceptual report from early in the trial, providing support to the idea that animals may use learned behavioral patterns to estimate the duration of time intervals. To better resolve the issue, we propose that continuous and simultaneous behavioral and neural monitoring will enable identification of neural activity related to time perception that is not explained by ongoing behavior. PMID:24672473

Gendered Pathways: How Mathematics Ability Beliefs Shape Secondary and Postsecondary Course and Degree Field Choices

PubMed Central

Perez-Felkner, Lara; Nix, Samantha; Thomas, Kirby

2017-01-01

Do mathematics ability beliefs explain gender gaps in the physical science, engineering, mathematics, and computer science fields (PEMC) and other science fields? We leverage U.S. nationally representative longitudinal data to estimate gendered differences in girls' and boys' perceptions of mathematics ability with the most difficult or challenging material. Our analyses examine the potentially interacting effects of gender and these ability beliefs on students' pathways to scientific careers. Specifically, we study how beliefs about ability with challenging mathematics influence girls' and boys' choices to pursue PEMC degrees, evaluating educational milestones over a 6-year period: advanced science course completion in secondary school and postsecondary major retention and selection. Our findings indicate even at the same levels of observed ability, girls' mathematics ability beliefs under challenge are markedly lower than those of boys. These beliefs matter over time, potentially tripling girls' chances of majoring in PEMC sciences, over and above biological science fields, all else being equal. Implications and potential interventions are discussed. PMID:28428762

Gendered Pathways: How Mathematics Ability Beliefs Shape Secondary and Postsecondary Course and Degree Field Choices.

PubMed

Perez-Felkner, Lara; Nix, Samantha; Thomas, Kirby

2017-01-01

Do mathematics ability beliefs explain gender gaps in the physical science, engineering, mathematics, and computer science fields (PEMC) and other science fields? We leverage U.S. nationally representative longitudinal data to estimate gendered differences in girls' and boys' perceptions of mathematics ability with the most difficult or challenging material. Our analyses examine the potentially interacting effects of gender and these ability beliefs on students' pathways to scientific careers. Specifically, we study how beliefs about ability with challenging mathematics influence girls' and boys' choices to pursue PEMC degrees, evaluating educational milestones over a 6-year period: advanced science course completion in secondary school and postsecondary major retention and selection. Our findings indicate even at the same levels of observed ability, girls' mathematics ability beliefs under challenge are markedly lower than those of boys. These beliefs matter over time, potentially tripling girls' chances of majoring in PEMC sciences, over and above biological science fields, all else being equal. Implications and potential interventions are discussed.

Improving the accuracy of burn-surface estimation.

PubMed

Nichter, L S; Williams, J; Bryant, C A; Edlich, R F

1985-09-01

A user-friendly computer-assisted method of calculating total body surface area burned (TBSAB) has been developed. This method is more accurate, faster, and subject to less error than conventional methods. For comparison, the ability of 30 physicians to estimate TBSAB was tested. Parameters studied included the effect of prior burn care experience, the influence of burn size, the ability to accurately sketch the size of burns on standard burn charts, and the ability to estimate percent TBSAB from the sketches. Despite the ability for physicians of all levels of training to accurately sketch TBSAB, significant burn size over-estimation (p less than 0.01) and large interrater variability of potential consequence was noted. Direct benefits of a computerized system are many. These include the need for minimal user experience and the ability for wound-trend analysis, permanent record storage, calculation of fluid and caloric requirements, hemodynamic parameters, and the ability to compare meaningfully the different treatment protocols.

The Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to the Latent Ability Distribution. Research Report. ETS RR-11-40

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Xueli; Jia, Yue

2011-01-01

Estimation of item response model parameters and ability distribution parameters has been, and will remain, an important topic in the educational testing field. Much research has been dedicated to addressing this task. Some studies have focused on item parameter estimation when the latent ability was assumed to follow a normal distribution,…

Tempo Rubato : Animacy Speeds Up Time in the Brain

PubMed Central

Carrozzo, Mauro; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Lacquaniti, Francesco

2010-01-01

Background How do we estimate time when watching an action? The idea that events are timed by a centralized clock has recently been called into question in favour of distributed, specialized mechanisms. Here we provide evidence for a critical specialization: animate and inanimate events are separately timed by humans. Methodology/Principal Findings In different experiments, observers were asked to intercept a moving target or to discriminate the duration of a stationary flash while viewing different scenes. Time estimates were systematically shorter in the sessions involving human characters moving in the scene than in those involving inanimate moving characters. Remarkably, the animate/inanimate context also affected randomly intermingled trials which always depicted the same still character. Conclusions/Significance The existence of distinct time bases for animate and inanimate events might be related to the partial segregation of the neural networks processing these two categories of objects, and could enhance our ability to predict critically timed actions. PMID:21206749

The effect of waiting times on demand and supply for elective surgery: Evidence from Italy.

PubMed

Riganti, Andrea; Siciliani, Luigi; Fiorio, Carlo V

2017-09-01

Waiting times are a major policy concern in publicly funded health systems across OECD countries. Economists have argued that, in the presence of excess demand, waiting times act as nonmonetary prices to bring demand for and supply of health care in equilibrium. Using administrative data disaggregated by region and surgical procedure over 2010-2014 in Italy, we estimate demand and supply elasticities with respect to waiting times. We employ linear regression models with first differences and instrumental variables to deal with endogeneity of waiting times. We find that demand is inelastic to waiting times while supply is more elastic. Estimates of demand elasticity are between -0.15 to -0.24. Our results have implications on the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing supply and their ability to reduce waiting times. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Clock’N Test as a Possible Measure of Emotions: Normative Data Collected on a Non-clinical Population

PubMed Central

Gros, Auriane; Manera, Valeria; Daumas, Anaïs; Guillemin, Sophie; Rouaud, Olivier; Martin, Martine Lemesle; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick

2016-01-01

Objective: At present emotional experience and implicit emotion regulation (IER) abilities are mainly assessed though self-reports, which are subjected to several biases. The aim of the present studies was to validate the Clock’N test, a recently developed time estimation task employing emotional priming to assess implicitly emotional reactivity and IER. Methods: In Study 1, the Clock’N test was administered to 150 healthy participants with different age, laterality and gender, in order to ascertain whether these factors affected the test results. In phase 1 participant were asked to judge the duration of seven sounds. In phase 2, before judging the duration of the same sounds, participants were presented with short arousing video-clip used as emotional priming stimuli. Time warp was calculated as the difference in time estimation between phase 2 and phase 1, and used to assess how emotions affected subjective time estimations. In study 2, a representative sample was selected to provide normative scores to be employed to assess emotional reactivity (Score 1) and IER (Score 2), and to calculate statistical cutoffs, based on the 10th and 90th score distribution percentiles. Results: Converging with previous findings, the results of study 1 suggested that the Clock’N test can be employed to assess both emotional reactivity, as indexed by an initial time underestimation, and IER, as indexed by a progressive shift to time overestimation. No effects of gender, age and laterality were found. Conclusions: These results suggest that the Clock’N test is adapted to assess emotional reactivity and IER. After collection of data on the test discriminant and convergent validity, this test may be employed to assess deficits in these abilities in different clinical populations. PMID:26903825

Long‐term effect of head trauma on intellectual abilities: a 16‐year outcome study

PubMed Central

Wood, R Ll; Rutterford, N A

2006-01-01

Background Intelligence was assessed in a group of 74 people with head injury, 16 years after injury (mean 16.77 years; range 10–32 years), and compared with their performance when assessed at an early stage in recovery (mean 1.05 years). Aims To confirm the presence of long‐term impairment relative to estimates of pre‐accident ability, to confirm signs of deterioration between early (T1) and late (T2) measures, and to examine relationships between severity of injury, time since injury, length of education, sex and age, and performance on intelligence tests at T2. Expected outcomes On the basis of evidence from other studies, a significant difference was expected between estimates of pre‐accident intelligence and abilities measured at T1 and T2. Deterioration in performance between T1 and T2, and relationships between demographic variables, severity of injury and intellectual performance were also expected. Results and conclusion The data supported long‐term intellectual impairment, but there was no deterioration in abilities between T1 and T2. Performance on intelligence tests was associated with years of education but not with other factors. PMID:16772355

75 FR 20346 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection Requests

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-19

... Federal law, or substantially interfere with any agency's ability to perform its statutory obligations... Department; (2) will this information be processed and used in a timely manner; (3) is the estimate of burden... models, approaches, and strategies adopted and implemented by a subset of schools receiving federal...

Practical Formulations of the Latent Growth Item Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Leah Walker

2010-01-01

Growth modeling using longitudinal data seems to be a promising direction for improving the methodology associated with the accountability movement. Longitudinal modeling requires that the measurements of ability are comparable over time and on the same scale. One way to create the vertical scale is through concurrent estimation with…

Estimating density of a territorial species in a dynamic landscape

Treesearch

Elizabeth M. Glenn; Damon B. Lesmeister; Raymond J. Davis; Bruce Hollen; Anne Poopatanapong

2017-01-01

Context Conservation planning for at-risk species requires understanding of where species are likely to occur, how many individuals are likely to be supported on a given landscape, and the ability to monitor those changes through time. Objectives We developed a distribution model for northern spotted owls that...

Do visually salient stimuli reduce children's risky decisions?

PubMed

Schwebel, David C; Lucas, Elizabeth K; Pearson, Alana

2009-09-01

Children tend to overestimate their physical abilities, and that tendency is related to risk for unintentional injury. This study tested whether or not children estimate their physical ability differently when exposed to stimuli that were highly visually salient due to fluorescent coloring. Sixty-nine 6-year-olds judged physical ability to complete laboratory-based physical tasks. Half judged ability using tasks that were painted black; the other half judged the same tasks, but the stimuli were striped black and fluorescent lime-green. Results suggest the two groups judged similarly, but children took longer to judge perceptually ambiguous tasks when those tasks were visually salient. In other words, visual salience increased decision-making time but not accuracy of judgment. These findings held true after controlling for demographic and temperament characteristics.

Improving the Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

2000-01-01

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.

Estimating Ocean Currents from Automatic Identification System Based Ship Drift Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakub, Thomas D.

Ship drift is a technique that has been used over the last century and a half to estimate ocean currents. Several of the shortcomings of the ship drift technique include obtaining the data from multiple ships, the time delay in getting those ship positions to a data center for processing and the limited resolution based on the amount of time between position measurements. These shortcomings can be overcome through the use of the Automatic Identification System (AIS). AIS enables more precise ocean current estimates, the option of finer resolution and more timely estimates. In this work, a demonstration of the use of AIS to compute ocean currents is performed. A corresponding error and sensitivity analysis is performed to help identify under which conditions errors will be smaller. A case study in San Francisco Bay with constant AIS message updates was compared against high frequency radar and demonstrated ocean current magnitude residuals of 19 cm/s for ship tracks in a high signal to noise environment. These ship tracks were only minutes long compared to the normally 12 to 24 hour ship tracks. The Gulf of Mexico case study demonstrated the ability to estimate ocean currents over longer baselines and identified the dependency of the estimates on the accuracy of time measurements. Ultimately, AIS measurements when combined with ship drift can provide another method of estimating ocean currents, particularly when other measurements techniques are not available.

Hydrologic Engineering in Planning,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-04-01

through abstraction of losses 3) Transform precipitation excess to streamflow 4) Estimate other contributions in order to obtain the total runoff...similar to those of surface entry, transmission ability and storage capacity and are illustrated in Figure 4.3. The initial losses are the losses that...AVERAGE CONDITIONS LEGEND w UNIFORM LOSSES 0I SOIL TRANSMISSION RATE A NTECEDENT CONDITIONS U) -~(WET)(DY IL 0 / -J TIME TIME SOIL CHARACTERISTICS 0,0

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

PubMed

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-12-11

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

PubMed Central

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-01-01

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

Monitoring and Modeling Performance of Communications in Computational Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frumkin, Michael A.; Le, Thuy T.

2003-01-01

Computational grids may include many machines located in a number of sites. For efficient use of the grid we need to have an ability to estimate the time it takes to communicate data between the machines. For dynamic distributed grids it is unrealistic to know exact parameters of the communication hardware and the current communication traffic and we should rely on a model of the network performance to estimate the message delivery time. Our approach to a construction of such a model is based on observation of the messages delivery time with various message sizes and time scales. We record these observations in a database and use them to build a model of the message delivery time. Our experiments show presence of multiple bands in the logarithm of the message delivery times. These multiple bands represent multiple paths messages travel between the grid machines and are incorporated in our multiband model.

Calibrated Multiple Event Relocations of the Central and Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Bergman, E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Myers, S. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquake locations are a first-order observable which form the basis of a wide range of seismic analyses. Currently, the ANSS catalog primarily contains published single-event earthquake locations that rely on assumed 1D velocity models. Increasing the accuracy of cataloged earthquake hypocenter locations and origin times and constraining their associated errors can improve our understanding of Earth structure and have a fundamental impact on subsequent seismic studies. Multiple-event relocation algorithms often increase the precision of relative earthquake hypocenters but are hindered by their limited ability to provide realistic location uncertainties for individual earthquakes. Recently, a Bayesian approach to the multiple event relocation problem has proven to have many benefits including the ability to: (1) handle large data sets; (2) easily incorporate a priori hypocenter information; (3) model phase assignment errors; and, (4) correct for errors in the assumed travel time model. In this study we employ bayseloc [Myers et al., 2007, 2009] to relocate earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States from 1964-present. We relocate ~11,000 earthquakes with a dataset of ~439,000 arrival time observations. Our dataset includes arrival-time observations from the ANSS catalog supplemented with arrival-time data from the Reviewed ISC Bulletin (prior to 1981), targeted local studies, and arrival-time data from the TA Array. One significant benefit of the bayesloc algorithm is its ability to incorporate a priori constraints on the probability distributions of specific earthquake locations parameters. To constrain the inversion, we use high-quality calibrated earthquake locations from local studies, including studies from: Raton Basin, Colorado; Mineral, Virginia; Guy, Arkansas; Cheneville, Quebec; Oklahoma; and Mt. Carmel, Illinois. We also add depth constraints to 232 earthquakes from regional moment tensors. Finally, we add constraints from four historic (1964-1973) ground truth events from a verification database. We (1) evaluate our ability to improve our location estimations, (2) use improved locations to evaluate Earth structure in seismically active regions, and (3) examine improvements to the estimated locations of historic large magnitude earthquakes.

Dynamic imaging in electrical impedance tomography of the human chest with online transition matrix identification.

PubMed

Moura, Fernando Silva; Aya, Julio Cesar Ceballos; Fleury, Agenor Toledo; Amato, Marcelo Britto Passos; Lima, Raul Gonzalez

2010-02-01

One of the electrical impedance tomography objectives is to estimate the electrical resistivity distribution in a domain based only on electrical potential measurements at its boundary generated by an imposed electrical current distribution into the boundary. One of the methods used in dynamic estimation is the Kalman filter. In biomedical applications, the random walk model is frequently used as evolution model and, under this conditions, poor tracking ability of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is achieved. An analytically developed evolution model is not feasible at this moment. The paper investigates the identification of the evolution model in parallel to the EKF and updating the evolution model with certain periodicity. The evolution model transition matrix is identified using the history of the estimated resistivity distribution obtained by a sensitivity matrix based algorithm and a Newton-Raphson algorithm. To numerically identify the linear evolution model, the Ibrahim time-domain method is used. The investigation is performed by numerical simulations of a domain with time-varying resistivity and by experimental data collected from the boundary of a human chest during normal breathing. The obtained dynamic resistivity values lie within the expected values for the tissues of a human chest. The EKF results suggest that the tracking ability is significantly improved with this approach.

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario.

PubMed

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-11-22

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals' average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day's WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas.

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario

PubMed Central

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-01-01

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals’ average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day’s WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas. PMID:27879663

Spurious Latent Class Problem in the Mixed Rasch Model: A Comparison of Three Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods under Different Ability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Sedat

2018-01-01

Recent research has shown that over-extraction of latent classes can be observed in the Bayesian estimation of the mixed Rasch model when the distribution of ability is non-normal. This study examined the effect of non-normal ability distributions on the number of latent classes in the mixed Rasch model when estimated with maximum likelihood…

Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

PubMed Central

Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

2013-01-01

Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

Stroboscopic Training Enhances Anticipatory Timing.

PubMed

Smith, Trevor Q; Mitroff, Stephen R

The dynamic aspects of sports often place heavy demands on visual processing. As such, an important goal for sports training should be to enhance visual abilities. Recent research has suggested that training in a stroboscopic environment, where visual experiences alternate between visible and obscured, may provide a means of improving attentional and visual abilities. The current study explored whether stroboscopic training could impact anticipatory timing - the ability to predict where a moving stimulus will be at a specific point in time. Anticipatory timing is a critical skill for both sports and non-sports activities, and thus finding training improvements could have broad impacts. Participants completed a pre-training assessment that used a Bassin Anticipation Timer to measure their abilities to accurately predict the timing of a moving visual stimulus. Immediately after this initial assessment, the participants completed training trials, but in one of two conditions. Those in the Control condition proceeded as before with no change. Those in the Strobe condition completed the training trials while wearing specialized eyewear that had lenses that alternated between transparent and opaque (rate of 100ms visible to 150ms opaque). Post-training assessments were administered immediately after training, 10-minutes after training, and 10-days after training. Compared to the Control group, the Strobe group was significantly more accurate immediately after training, was more likely to respond early than to respond late immediately after training and 10 minutes later, and was more consistent in their timing estimates immediately after training and 10 minutes later.

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

PubMed

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

The influence of purge times on the yields of essential oil components extracted from plants by pressurized liquid extraction.

PubMed

Wianowska, Dorota

2014-01-01

The influence of different purge times on the yield of the main essential oil constituents of rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.), thyme (Thymus vulgaris L.), and chamomile (Chamomilla recutita L.) was investigated. The pressurized liquid extraction process was performed by applying different extraction temperatures and solvents. The results presented in the paper show that the estimated yield of essential oil components extracted from the plants in the pressurized liquid extraction process is purge time-dependent. The differences in the estimated yields are mainly connected with the evaporation of individual essential oil components and the applied solvent during the purge; the more volatile an essential oil constituent is, the greater is its loss during purge time, and the faster the evaporation of the solvent during the purge process is, the higher the concentration of less volatile essential oil components in the pressurized liquid extraction receptacle. The effect of purge time on the estimated yield of individual essential oil constituents is additionally differentiated by the extraction temperature and the extraction ability of the applied solvent.

Dynamic Measurement Modeling: Using Nonlinear Growth Models to Estimate Student Learning Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dumas, Denis G.; McNeish, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

Single-timepoint educational measurement practices are capable of assessing student ability at the time of testing but are not designed to be informative of student capacity for developing in any particular academic domain, despite commonly being used in such a manner. For this reason, such measurement practice systematically underestimates the…

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Detection and Estimation of 2-D Distributions of Greenhouse Gas Source Concentrations and Emissions over Complex Urban Environments and Industrial Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccheo, T. S.; Pernini, T.; Dobler, J. T.; Blume, N.; Braun, M.

2017-12-01

This work highlights the use of the greenhouse-gas laser imaging tomography experiment (GreenLITETM) data in conjunction with a sparse tomography approach to identify and quantify both urban and industrial sources of CO2 and CH4. The GreenLITETM system provides a user-defined set of time-sequenced intersecting chords or integrated column measurements at a fixed height through a quasi-horizontal plane of interest. This plane, with unobstructed views along the lines of sight, may range from complex industrial facilities to a small city scale or urban sector. The continuous time phased absorption measurements are converted to column concentrations and combined with a plume based model to estimate the 2-D distribution of gas concentration over extended areas ranging from 0.04-25 km2. Finally, these 2-D maps of concentration are combined with ancillary meteorological and atmospheric data to identify potential emission sources and provide first order estimates of their associated fluxes. In this presentation, we will provide a brief overview of the systems and results from both controlled release experiments and a long-term system deployment in Paris, FR. These results provide a quantitative assessment of the system's ability to detect and estimate CO2 and CH4 sources, and demonstrate its ability to perform long-term autonomous monitoring and quantification of either persistent or sporadic emissions that may have both health and safety as well as environmental impacts.

Real-time vibration compensation for large telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhm, M.; Pott, J.-U.; Sawodny, O.; Herbst, T.; Kürster, M.

2014-08-01

We compare different strategies for minimizing the effects of telescope vibrations to the differential piston (optical pathway difference) for the Near-InfraRed/Visible Adaptive Camera and INterferometer for Astronomy (LINC-NIRVANA) at the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) using an accelerometer feedforward compensation approach. We summarize, why this technology is important for LINC-NIRVANA, and also for future telescopes and already existing instruments. The main objective is outlining a solution for the estimation problem in general and its specifics at the LBT. Emphasis is put on realistic evaluation of the used algorithms in the laboratory, such that predictions for the expected performance at the LBT can be made. Model-based estimation and broad-band filtering techniques can be used to solve the estimation task, and the differences are discussed. Simulation results and measurements are shown to motivate our choice of the estimation algorithm for LINC-NIRVANA. The laboratory setup is aimed at imitating the vibration behaviour at the LBT in general, and the M2 as main contributor in particular. For our measurements, we introduce a disturbance time series which has a frequency spectrum comparable to what can be measured at the LBT on a typical night. The controllers' ability to suppress vibrations in the critical frequency range of 8-60 Hz is demonstrated. The experimental results are promising, indicating the ability to suppress differential piston induced by telescope vibrations by a factor of about 5 (rms), which is significantly better than any currently commissioned system.

Three estimates of the association between linear growth failure and cognitive ability.

PubMed

Cheung, Y B; Lam, K F

2009-09-01

To compare three estimators of association between growth stunting as measured by height-for-age Z-score and cognitive ability in children, and to examine the extent statistical adjustment for covariates is useful for removing confounding due to socio-economic status. Three estimators, namely random-effects, within- and between-cluster estimators, for panel data were used to estimate the association in a survey of 1105 pairs of siblings who were assessed for anthropometry and cognition. Furthermore, a 'combined' model was formulated to simultaneously provide the within- and between-cluster estimates. Random-effects and between-cluster estimators showed strong association between linear growth and cognitive ability, even after adjustment for a range of socio-economic variables. In contrast, the within-cluster estimator showed a much more modest association: For every increase of one Z-score in linear growth, cognitive ability increased by about 0.08 standard deviation (P < 0.001). The combined model verified that the between-cluster estimate was significantly larger than the within-cluster estimate (P = 0.004). Residual confounding by socio-economic situations may explain a substantial proportion of the observed association between linear growth and cognition in studies that attempt to control the confounding by means of multivariable regression analysis. The within-cluster estimator provides more convincing and modest results about the strength of association.

The legacy of disadvantage: multigenerational neighborhood effects on cognitive ability.

PubMed

Sharkey, Patrick; Elwert, Felix

2011-05-01

This study examines how the neighborhood environments experienced over multiple generations of a family influence children's cognitive ability. Building on recent research showing strong continuity in neighborhood environments across generations of family members, the authors argue for a revised perspective on "neighborhood effects" that considers the ways in which the neighborhood environment in one generation may have a lingering impact on the next generation. To analyze multigenerational effects, the authors use newly developed methods designed to estimate unbiased treatment effects when treatments and confounders vary over time. The results confirm a powerful link between neighborhoods and cognitive ability that extends across generations. A family's exposure to neighborhood poverty across two consecutive generations reduces child cognitive ability by more than half a standard deviation. A formal sensitivity analysis suggests that results are robust to unobserved selection bias.

Flexible nonlinear estimates of the association between height and mental ability in early life.

PubMed

Murasko, Jason E

2014-01-01

To estimate associations between early-life mental ability and height/height-growth in contemporary US children. Structured additive regression models are used to flexibly estimate the associations between height and mental ability at approximately 24 months of age. The sample is taken from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort, a national study whose target population was children born in the US during 2001. A nonlinear association is indicated between height and mental ability at approximately 24 months of age. There is an increasing association between height and mental ability below the mean value of height, but a flat association thereafter. Annualized growth shows the same nonlinear association to ability when controlling for baseline length at 9 months. Restricted growth at lower values of the height distribution is associated with lower measured mental ability in contemporary US children during the first years of life. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Temporal parameter change of human postural control ability during upright swing using recursive least square method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, Akifumi; Ishida, Mizuri; Sagawa, Koichi

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to derive quantitative assessment indicators of the human postural control ability. An inverted pendulum is applied to standing human body and is controlled by ankle joint torque according to PD control method in sagittal plane. Torque control parameters (KP: proportional gain, KD: derivative gain) and pole placements of postural control system are estimated with time from inclination angle variation using fixed trace method as recursive least square method. Eight young healthy volunteers are participated in the experiment, in which volunteers are asked to incline forward as far as and as fast as possible 10 times over 10 [s] stationary intervals with their neck joint, hip joint and knee joint fixed, and then return to initial upright posture. The inclination angle is measured by an optical motion capture system. Three conditions are introduced to simulate unstable standing posture; 1) eyes-opened posture for healthy condition, 2) eyes-closed posture for visual impaired and 3) one-legged posture for lower-extremity muscle weakness. The estimated parameters Kp, KD and pole placements are applied to multiple comparison test among all stability conditions. The test results indicate that Kp, KD and real pole reflect effect of lower-extremity muscle weakness and KD also represents effect of visual impairment. It is suggested that the proposed method is valid for quantitative assessment of standing postural control ability.

The Time Is Up: Compression of Visual Time Interval Estimations of Bimodal Aperiodic Patterns

PubMed Central

Duarte, Fabiola; Lemus, Luis

2017-01-01

The ability to estimate time intervals subserves many of our behaviors and perceptual experiences. However, it is not clear how aperiodic (AP) stimuli affect our perception of time intervals across sensory modalities. To address this question, we evaluated the human capacity to discriminate between two acoustic (A), visual (V) or audiovisual (AV) time intervals of trains of scattered pulses. We first measured the periodicity of those stimuli and then sought for correlations with the accuracy and reaction times (RTs) of the subjects. We found that, for all time intervals tested in our experiment, the visual system consistently perceived AP stimuli as being shorter than the periodic (P) ones. In contrast, such a compression phenomenon was not apparent during auditory trials. Our conclusions are: first, the subjects exposed to P stimuli are more likely to measure their durations accurately. Second, perceptual time compression occurs for AP visual stimuli. Lastly, AV discriminations are determined by A dominance rather than by AV enhancement. PMID:28848406

Utility of the General Ability Index (GAI) and Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) with Survivors of Pediatric Brain Tumors: Comparison to Full Scale IQ and Premorbid IQ Estimates

PubMed Central

Kahalley, Lisa S.; Winter-Greenberg, Amanda; Stancel, Heather; Ris, M. Douglas; Gragert, Marsha

2016-01-01

Introduction Pediatric brain tumor survivors are at risk for working memory and processing speed impairment. The General Ability Index (GAI) provides an estimate of intellectual functioning that is less influenced by working memory and processing speed than a Full Scale IQ (FSIQ). The Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) provides a measure of efficient information processing derived from working memory and processing speed tasks. We examined the utility of the GAI and CPI to quantify neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of pediatric brain tumor survivors. Methods GAI, CPI, and FSIQ scores from the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) were examined for 57 pediatric brain tumor survivors (ages 6–16) treated with cranial radiation therapy (RT). Results GAI scores were higher than FSIQ and CPI scores, both p < .001. Lower CPI scores were associated with history of craniospinal irradiation and time since RT. Lower FSIQ and GAI scores were associated with higher RT dose and time since RT. The rate of clinically significant GAI-FSIQ discrepancies in our sample was greater than observed in the WISC-IV standardization sample, p < .001. Estimated premorbid IQ scores were higher than GAI, p < .01, and FSIQ scores, p < .001. Conclusions Pediatric brain tumor survivors exhibit weaker cognitive proficiency than expected for age, while general reasoning ability remains relatively spared. The GAI may be useful to quantify the intellectual potential of a survivor when appropriate accommodations are in place for relative cognitive proficiency weaknesses. The CPI may be a particularly sensitive outcome measure of treatment-related cognitive change in this population. PMID:27295192

Estimation of effective connectivity using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network.

PubMed

Talebi, Nasibeh; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie; Mohammad-Rezazadeh, Iman

2018-02-01

Studies on interactions between brain regions estimate effective connectivity, (usually) based on the causality inferences made on the basis of temporal precedence. In this study, the causal relationship is modeled by a multi-layer perceptron feed-forward artificial neural network, because of the ANN's ability to generate appropriate input-output mapping and to learn from training examples without the need of detailed knowledge of the underlying system. At any time instant, the past samples of data are placed in the network input, and the subsequent values are predicted at its output. To estimate the strength of interactions, the measure of " Causality coefficient " is defined based on the network structure, the connecting weights and the parameters of hidden layer activation function. Simulation analysis demonstrates that the method, called "CREANN" (Causal Relationship Estimation by Artificial Neural Network), can estimate time-invariant and time-varying effective connectivity in terms of MVAR coefficients. The method shows robustness with respect to noise level of data. Furthermore, the estimations are not significantly influenced by the model order (considered time-lag), and the different initial conditions (initial random weights and parameters of the network). CREANN is also applied to EEG data collected during a memory recognition task. The results implicate that it can show changes in the information flow between brain regions, involving in the episodic memory retrieval process. These convincing results emphasize that CREANN can be used as an appropriate method to estimate the causal relationship among brain signals.

The reliability and internal consistency of one-shot and flicker change detection for measuring individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Pailian, Hrag; Halberda, Justin

2015-04-01

We investigated the psychometric properties of the one-shot change detection task for estimating visual working memory (VWM) storage capacity-and also introduced and tested an alternative flicker change detection task for estimating these limits. In three experiments, we found that the one-shot whole-display task returns estimates of VWM storage capacity (K) that are unreliable across set sizes-suggesting that the whole-display task is measuring different things at different set sizes. In two additional experiments, we found that the one-shot single-probe variant shows improvements in the reliability and consistency of K estimates. In another additional experiment, we found that a one-shot whole-display-with-click task (requiring target localization) also showed improvements in reliability and consistency. The latter results suggest that the one-shot task can return reliable and consistent estimates of VWM storage capacity (K), and they highlight the possibility that the requirement to localize the changed target is what engenders this enhancement. Through a final series of four experiments, we introduced and tested an alternative flicker change detection method that also requires the observer to localize the changing target and that generates, from response times, an estimate of VWM storage capacity (K). We found that estimates of K from the flicker task correlated with estimates from the traditional one-shot task and also had high reliability and consistency. We highlight the flicker method's ability to estimate executive functions as well as VWM storage capacity, and discuss the potential for measuring multiple abilities with the one-shot and flicker tasks.

Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

PubMed

Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

2013-12-01

Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational tools for multi-linked flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Gordon K. F.; Brubaker, Thomas A.; Shults, James R.

1990-01-01

A software module which designs and tests controllers and filters in Kalman Estimator form, based on a polynomial state-space model is discussed. The user-friendly program employs an interactive graphics approach to simplify the design process. A variety of input methods are provided to test the effectiveness of the estimator. Utilities are provided which address important issues in filter design such as graphical analysis, statistical analysis, and calculation time. The program also provides the user with the ability to save filter parameters, inputs, and outputs for future use.

Is there information contained within the sentence-writing component of the mini mental state examination? A retrospective study of community dwelling older people.

PubMed

Shenkin, Susan D; Starr, John M; Dunn, Joanne M; Carter, Samantha; Deary, Ian J

2008-12-01

To investigate the relationship between features of the MMSE written sentence and cognitive function, depression and disability. MMSE sentences from 191 community dwelling individuals without dementia from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 (LBC1921) study were: (a) photocopied and (b) typed as written. Sentences were rated for objective criteria: word number and frequency, first person usage, time orientation, and letter case. Twenty healthy raters (50% male, age 20-26 years), blind to all other data, rated each handwritten and typed sentence for subjective criteria: legibility, 'emotional' tone (positive to negative), estimated age, health, and intelligence. As part of the LBC1921 volunteers had results available for cognitive ability tests (from which we extracted a general cognitive ability factor, g), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS), and Townsend disability scores. 43.5% of subjects were male, mean age 78.6, SD 0.43 years. There was no significant association between the objective sentence criteria, legibility or tone and measured cognitive ability or physical disability. However, estimates of intelligence from the MMSE written sentence correlated significantly with current cognitive ability (r = 0.29, p < 0.001). There was a trend towards sentences with a negative tone being associated with a higher HADS-depression score (rho = -0.12, p = 0.09). In community dwelling people aged around 80 years, despite no association between objectively rated features of the MMSE sentence and intelligence or disability, raters were able to make better-than-chance estimates of subjects' intelligence test scores. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of the residual bromine concentration after disinfection of cooling water by statistical evaluation.

PubMed

Megalopoulos, Fivos A; Ochsenkuehn-Petropoulou, Maria T

2015-01-01

A statistical model based on multiple linear regression is developed, to estimate the bromine residual that can be expected after the bromination of cooling water. Make-up water sampled from a power plant in the Greek territory was used for the creation of the various cooling water matrices under investigation. The amount of bromine fed to the circuit, as well as other important operational parameters such as concentration at the cooling tower, temperature, organic load and contact time are taken as the independent variables. It is found that the highest contribution to the model's predictive ability comes from cooling water's organic load concentration, followed by the amount of bromine fed to the circuit, the water's mean temperature, the duration of the bromination period and finally its conductivity. Comparison of the model results with the experimental data confirms its ability to predict residual bromine given specific bromination conditions.

Surface smoothness: cartilage biomarkers for knee OA beyond the radiologist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tummala, Sudhakar; Dam, Erik B.

2010-03-01

Fully automatic imaging biomarkers may allow quantification of patho-physiological processes that a radiologist would not be able to assess reliably. This can introduce new insight but is problematic to validate due to lack of meaningful ground truth expert measurements. Rather than quantification accuracy, such novel markers must therefore be validated against clinically meaningful end-goals such as the ability to allow correct diagnosis. We present a method for automatic cartilage surface smoothness quantification in the knee joint. The quantification is based on a curvature flow method used on tibial and femoral cartilage compartments resulting from an automatic segmentation scheme. These smoothness estimates are validated for their ability to diagnose osteoarthritis and compared to smoothness estimates based on manual expert segmentations and to conventional cartilage volume quantification. We demonstrate that the fully automatic markers eliminate the time required for radiologist annotations, and in addition provide a diagnostic marker superior to the evaluated semi-manual markers.

Modelling Dominance Hierarchies Under Winner and Loser Effects.

PubMed

Kura, Klodeta; Broom, Mark; Kandler, Anne

2015-06-01

Animals that live in groups commonly form themselves into dominance hierarchies which are used to allocate important resources such as access to mating opportunities and food. In this paper, we develop a model of dominance hierarchy formation based upon the concept of winner and loser effects using a simulation-based model and consider the linearity of our hierarchy using existing and new statistical measures. Two models are analysed: when each individual in a group does not know the real ability of their opponents to win a fight and when they can estimate their opponents' ability every time they fight. This estimation may be accurate or fall within an error bound. For both models, we investigate if we can achieve hierarchy linearity, and if so, when it is established. We are particularly interested in the question of how many fights are necessary to establish a dominance hierarchy.

Nonparametric estimation of stochastic differential equations with sparse Gaussian processes.

PubMed

García, Constantino A; Otero, Abraham; Félix, Paulo; Presedo, Jesús; Márquez, David G

2017-08-01

The application of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudosamples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behavior of complex systems.

Optimal Designs for the Rasch Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grasshoff, Ulrike; Holling, Heinz; Schwabe, Rainer

2012-01-01

In this paper, optimal designs will be derived for estimating the ability parameters of the Rasch model when difficulty parameters are known. It is well established that a design is locally D-optimal if the ability and difficulty coincide. But locally optimal designs require that the ability parameters to be estimated are known. To attenuate this…

The Asymptotic Distribution of Ability Estimates: Beyond Dichotomous Items and Unidimensional IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2015-01-01

The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the ability parameter of an item response theory model with known item parameters was proved to be asymptotically normally distributed under a set of regularity conditions for tests involving dichotomous items and a unidimensional ability parameter (Klauer, 1990; Lord, 1983). This article first considers…

Numerosity but Not Texture-Density Discrimination Correlates with Math Ability in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anobile, Giovanni; Castaldi, Elisa; Turi, Marco; Tinelli, Francesca; Burr, David C.

2016-01-01

Considerable recent work suggests that mathematical abilities in children correlate with the ability to estimate numerosity. Does math correlate only with numerosity estimation, or also with other similar tasks? We measured discrimination thresholds of school-age (6- to 12.5-years-old) children in 3 tasks: numerosity of patterns of relatively…

Non-parametric directionality analysis - Extension for removal of a single common predictor and application to time series.

PubMed

Halliday, David M; Senik, Mohd Harizal; Stevenson, Carl W; Mason, Rob

2016-08-01

The ability to infer network structure from multivariate neuronal signals is central to computational neuroscience. Directed network analyses typically use parametric approaches based on auto-regressive (AR) models, where networks are constructed from estimates of AR model parameters. However, the validity of using low order AR models for neurophysiological signals has been questioned. A recent article introduced a non-parametric approach to estimate directionality in bivariate data, non-parametric approaches are free from concerns over model validity. We extend the non-parametric framework to include measures of directed conditional independence, using scalar measures that decompose the overall partial correlation coefficient summatively by direction, and a set of functions that decompose the partial coherence summatively by direction. A time domain partial correlation function allows both time and frequency views of the data to be constructed. The conditional independence estimates are conditioned on a single predictor. The framework is applied to simulated cortical neuron networks and mixtures of Gaussian time series data with known interactions. It is applied to experimental data consisting of local field potential recordings from bilateral hippocampus in anaesthetised rats. The framework offers a non-parametric approach to estimation of directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and increased flexibility in dealing with both spike train and time series data. The framework offers a novel alternative non-parametric approach to estimate directed interactions in multivariate neuronal recordings, and is applicable to spike train and time series data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of exposure to atmospheric pollutants during pregnancy integrating space-time activity and indoor air levels: does it make a difference?

PubMed Central

Marion, OUIDIR; Lise, GIORGIS-ALLEMAND; Sarah, LYON-CAEN; Xavier, MORELLI; Claire, CRACOWSKI; Sabrina, PONTET; Isabelle, PIN; Johanna, LEPEULE; Valérie, SIROUX; Rémy, SLAMA

2016-01-01

Studies of air pollution effects during pregnancy generally only consider exposure in the outdoor air at the home address. We aimed to compare exposure models differing in their ability to account for the spatial resolution of pollutants, space-time activity and indoor air pollution levels. We recruited 40 pregnant women in the Grenoble urban area, France, who carried a Global Positioning System (GPS) during up to 3 weeks; in a subgroup, indoor measurements of fine particles (PM2.5) were conducted at home (n=9) and personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was assessed using passive air samplers (n=10). Outdoor concentrations of NO2, and PM2.5 were estimated from a dispersion model with a fine spatial resolution. Women spent on average 16 h per day at home. Considering only outdoor levels, for estimates at the home address, the correlation between the estimate using the nearest background air monitoring station and the estimate from the dispersion model was high (r=0.93) for PM2.5 and moderate (r=0.67) for NO2. The model incorporating clean GPS data was less correlated with the estimate relying on raw GPS data (r=0.77) than the model ignoring space-time activity (r=0.93). PM2.5 outdoor levels were not to moderately correlated with estimates from the model incorporating indoor measurements and space-time activity (r=−0.10 to 0.47), while NO2 personal levels were not correlated with outdoor levels (r=−0.42 to 0.03). In this urban area, accounting for space-time activity little influenced exposure estimates; in a subgroup of subjects (n=9), incorporating indoor pollution levels seemed to strongly modify them. PMID:26300245

Bayesian and “Anti-Bayesian” Biases in Sensory Integration for Action and Perception in the Size–Weight Illusion

PubMed Central

Brayanov, Jordan B.

2010-01-01

Which is heavier: a pound of lead or a pound of feathers? This classic trick question belies a simple but surprising truth: when lifted, the pound of lead feels heavier—a phenomenon known as the size–weight illusion. To estimate the weight of an object, our CNS combines two imperfect sources of information: a prior expectation, based on the object's appearance, and direct sensory information from lifting it. Bayes' theorem (or Bayes' law) defines the statistically optimal way to combine multiple information sources for maximally accurate estimation. Here we asked whether the mechanisms for combining these information sources produce statistically optimal weight estimates for both perceptions and actions. We first studied the ability of subjects to hold one hand steady when the other removed an object from it, under conditions in which sensory information about the object's weight sometimes conflicted with prior expectations based on its size. Since the ability to steady the supporting hand depends on the generation of a motor command that accounts for lift timing and object weight, hand motion can be used to gauge biases in weight estimation by the motor system. We found that these motor system weight estimates reflected the integration of prior expectations with real-time proprioceptive information in a Bayesian, statistically optimal fashion that discounted unexpected sensory information. This produces a motor size–weight illusion that consistently biases weight estimates toward prior expectations. In contrast, when subjects compared the weights of two objects, their perceptions defied Bayes' law, exaggerating the value of unexpected sensory information. This produces a perceptual size–weight illusion that biases weight perceptions away from prior expectations. We term this effect “anti-Bayesian” because the bias is opposite that seen in Bayesian integration. Our findings suggest that two fundamentally different strategies for the integration of prior expectations with sensory information coexist in the nervous system for weight estimation. PMID:20089821

Neural pattern change during encoding of a narrative predicts retrospective duration estimates

PubMed Central

Lositsky, Olga; Chen, Janice; Toker, Daniel; Honey, Christopher J; Shvartsman, Michael; Poppenk, Jordan L; Hasson, Uri; Norman, Kenneth A

2016-01-01

What mechanisms support our ability to estimate durations on the order of minutes? Behavioral studies in humans have shown that changes in contextual features lead to overestimation of past durations. Based on evidence that the medial temporal lobes and prefrontal cortex represent contextual features, we related the degree of fMRI pattern change in these regions with people’s subsequent duration estimates. After listening to a radio story in the scanner, participants were asked how much time had elapsed between pairs of clips from the story. Our ROI analyses found that duration estimates were correlated with the neural pattern distance between two clips at encoding in the right entorhinal cortex. Moreover, whole-brain searchlight analyses revealed a cluster spanning the right anterior temporal lobe. Our findings provide convergent support for the hypothesis that retrospective time judgments are driven by 'drift' in contextual representations supported by these regions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16070.001 PMID:27801645

Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

Treesearch

Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

2013-01-01

The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

Mechanisms for the Association between Maternal Employment and Child Cognitive Development. NBER Working Paper No. 13609

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cawley, John; Liu, Feng

2007-01-01

Recent research has found that maternal employment is associated with worse child performance on tests of cognitive ability. This paper explores mechanisms for that correlation. We estimate models of instrumental variables using a unique dataset, the American Time Use Survey, that measure the effect of maternal employment on the mother's…

Age-related self-overestimation of step-over ability in healthy older adults and its relationship to fall risk.

PubMed

Sakurai, Ryota; Fujiwara, Yoshinori; Ishihara, Masami; Higuchi, Takahiro; Uchida, Hayato; Imanaka, Kuniyasu

2013-05-07

Older adults could not safely step over an obstacle unless they correctly estimated their physical ability to be capable of a successful step over action. Thus, incorrect estimation (overestimation) of ability to step over an obstacle could result in severe accident such as falls in older adults. We investigated whether older adults tended to overestimate step-over ability compared with young adults and whether such overestimation in stepping over obstacles was associated with falls. Three groups of adults, young-old (age, 60-74 years; n, 343), old-old (age, >74 years; n, 151), and young (age, 18-35 years; n, 71), performed our original step-over test (SOT). In the SOT, participants observed a horizontal bar at a 7-m distance and estimated the maximum height (EH) that they could step over. After estimation, they performed real SOT trials to measure the actual maximum height (AH). We also identified participants who had experienced falls in the 1 year period before the study. Thirty-nine young-old adults (11.4%) and 49 old-old adults (32.5%) failed to step over the bar at EH (overestimation), whereas all young adults succeeded (underestimation). There was a significant negative correlation between actual performance (AH) and self-estimation error (difference between EH and AH) in the older adults, indicating that older adults with lower AH (SOT ability) tended to overestimate actual ability (EH > AH) and vice versa. Furthermore, the percentage of participants who overestimated SOT ability in the fallers (28%) was almost double larger than that in the non-fallers (16%), with the fallers showing significantly lower SOT ability than the non-fallers. Older adults appear unaware of age-related physical decline and tended to overestimate step-over ability. Both age-related decline in step-over ability, and more importantly, overestimation or decreased underestimation of this ability may raise potential risk of falls.

Age-related self-overestimation of step-over ability in healthy older adults and its relationship to fall risk

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Older adults could not safely step over an obstacle unless they correctly estimated their physical ability to be capable of a successful step over action. Thus, incorrect estimation (overestimation) of ability to step over an obstacle could result in severe accident such as falls in older adults. We investigated whether older adults tended to overestimate step-over ability compared with young adults and whether such overestimation in stepping over obstacles was associated with falls. Methods Three groups of adults, young-old (age, 60–74 years; n, 343), old-old (age, >74 years; n, 151), and young (age, 18–35 years; n, 71), performed our original step-over test (SOT). In the SOT, participants observed a horizontal bar at a 7-m distance and estimated the maximum height (EH) that they could step over. After estimation, they performed real SOT trials to measure the actual maximum height (AH). We also identified participants who had experienced falls in the 1 year period before the study. Results Thirty-nine young-old adults (11.4%) and 49 old-old adults (32.5%) failed to step over the bar at EH (overestimation), whereas all young adults succeeded (underestimation). There was a significant negative correlation between actual performance (AH) and self-estimation error (difference between EH and AH) in the older adults, indicating that older adults with lower AH (SOT ability) tended to overestimate actual ability (EH > AH) and vice versa. Furthermore, the percentage of participants who overestimated SOT ability in the fallers (28%) was almost double larger than that in the non-fallers (16%), with the fallers showing significantly lower SOT ability than the non-fallers. Conclusions Older adults appear unaware of age-related physical decline and tended to overestimate step-over ability. Both age-related decline in step-over ability, and more importantly, overestimation or decreased underestimation of this ability may raise potential risk of falls. PMID:23651772

Low-signal, coronagraphic wavefront estimation with Kalman filtering in the high contrast imaging testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riggs, A. J. Eldorado; Cady, Eric J.; Prada, Camilo M.; Kern, Brian D.; Zhou, Hanying; Kasdin, N. Jeremy; Groff, Tyler D.

2016-07-01

For direct imaging and spectral characterization of cold exoplanets in reflected light, the proposed Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) will carry two types of coronagraphs. The High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been testing both coronagraph types and demonstrated their abilities to achieve high contrast. Focal plane wavefront correction is used to estimate and mitigate aberrations. As the most time-consuming part of correction during a space mission, the acquisition of probed images for electric field estimation needs to be as short as possible. We present results from the HCIT of narrowband, low-signal wavefront estimation tests using a shaped pupil Lyot coronagraph (SPLC) designed for the WFIRST CGI. In the low-flux regime, the Kalman filter and iterated extended Kalman filter provide faster correction, better achievable contrast, and more accurate estimates than batch process estimation.

Male orthopaedic surgeons and anaesthetists: equally good at estimating fluid volumes (and changing light bulbs) but equally poor at estimating procedure duration.

PubMed

Chua, Weiliang; Kong, Chee Hoe; Murphy, Diarmuid Paul

2015-05-01

How many orthopods does it take to change a light bulb? One - to refer to the medics for 'Darkness ?Cause'. Additionally, anaesthetists and surgeons often disagree on the estimated blood loss during surgery and the estimated procedure duration. We designed this study to compare the ability of orthopaedic surgeons and anaesthetists in: (a) estimating fluid volumes; (b) estimating procedure durations; and (c) changing light bulbs. Participants had to either be a specialist in anaesthesia or orthopaedic surgery, or a trainee in that specialty for at least two years. Three different fluid specimens were used for volume estimation (44 mL, 88 mL and 144 mL). Two videos of different lengths (140 seconds and 170 seconds), showing the suturing of a banana skin, were used for procedure duration estimation. To determine the ability at changing light bulbs, the participants had to match eight different light sockets to their respective bulbs. 30 male anaesthetists and trainees and 31 male orthopaedic surgeons and trainees participated in this study. Orthopaedic surgeons underestimated the three fluid volumes by 3.9% and anaesthetists overestimated by 5.1% (p = 0.925). Anaesthetists and orthopaedic surgeons overestimated the duration of the two procedures by 21.2% and 43.1%, respectively (p = 0.006). Anaesthetists had a faster mean time in changing light bulbs (70.1 seconds vs. 74.1 seconds, p = 0.319). In an experimental environment, male orthopaedic surgeons are as good as male anaesthetists in estimating fluid volumes (in commonly seen surgical specimens) and in changing light bulbs. Both groups are poor at estimating procedure durations.

How Did a Lack of Strategic and Operational Vision Impair the Army’s Ability to Conduct Tactical Operations in Korea in the Summer of 1950?

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-31

be major participants in policy development and implementation. The result of this was an Army that died by inches each day. By the time it was...recognize that responsibility and to maintain a clear and accurate understanding how good (or bad) we actually are at any given point in time . The...possibility of an attack of such magnitude at such a time . Intelligence estimates frequently commented on the possibility of communist action against the

Taking the Missing Propensity Into Account When Estimating Competence Scores

PubMed Central

Pohl, Steffi; Carstensen, Claus H.

2014-01-01

When competence tests are administered, subjects frequently omit items. These missing responses pose a threat to correctly estimating the proficiency level. Newer model-based approaches aim to take nonignorable missing data processes into account by incorporating a latent missing propensity into the measurement model. Two assumptions are typically made when using these models: (1) The missing propensity is unidimensional and (2) the missing propensity and the ability are bivariate normally distributed. These assumptions may, however, be violated in real data sets and could, thus, pose a threat to the validity of this approach. The present study focuses on modeling competencies in various domains, using data from a school sample (N = 15,396) and an adult sample (N = 7,256) from the National Educational Panel Study. Our interest was to investigate whether violations of unidimensionality and the normal distribution assumption severely affect the performance of the model-based approach in terms of differences in ability estimates. We propose a model with a competence dimension, a unidimensional missing propensity and a distributional assumption more flexible than a multivariate normal. Using this model for ability estimation results in different ability estimates compared with a model ignoring missing responses. Implications for ability estimation in large-scale assessments are discussed. PMID:29795844

Making the Most of What We Have: A Practical Application of Multidimensional Item Response Theory in Test Scoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de la Torre, Jimmy; Patz, Richard J.

2005-01-01

This article proposes a practical method that capitalizes on the availability of information from multiple tests measuring correlated abilities given in a single test administration. By simultaneously estimating different abilities with the use of a hierarchical Bayesian framework, more precise estimates for each ability dimension are obtained.…

Improving the Quality of Ability Estimates through Multidimensional Scoring and Incorporation of Ancillary Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de la Torre, Jimmy

2009-01-01

For one reason or another, various sources of information, namely, ancillary variables and correlational structure of the latent abilities, which are usually available in most testing situations, are ignored in ability estimation. A general model that incorporates these sources of information is proposed in this article. The model has a general…

Developing an Efficient Computational Method that Estimates the Ability of Students in a Web-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Young-Jin

2012-01-01

This paper presents a computational method that can efficiently estimate the ability of students from the log files of a Web-based learning environment capturing their problem solving processes. The computational method developed in this study approximates the posterior distribution of the student's ability obtained from the conventional Bayes…

Cognitive predictors of children's development in mathematics achievement: A latent growth modeling approach.

PubMed

Xenidou-Dervou, Iro; Van Luit, Johannes E H; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H; Friso-van den Bos, Ilona; Jonkman, Lisa M; van der Schoot, Menno; van Lieshout, Ernest C D M

2018-04-24

Research has identified various domain-general and domain-specific cognitive abilities as predictors of children's individual differences in mathematics achievement. However, research into the predictors of children's individual growth rates, namely between-person differences in within-person change in mathematics achievement is scarce. We assessed 334 children's domain-general and mathematics-specific early cognitive abilities and their general mathematics achievement longitudinally across four time-points within the first and second grades of primary school. As expected, a constellation of multiple cognitive abilities contributed to the children's starting level of mathematical success. Specifically, latent growth modeling revealed that WM abilities, IQ, counting skills, nonsymbolic and symbolic approximate arithmetic and comparison skills explained individual differences in the children's initial status on a curriculum-based general mathematics achievement test. Surprisingly, however, only one out of all the assessed cognitive abilities was a unique predictor of the children's individual growth rates in mathematics achievement: their performance in the symbolic approximate addition task. In this task, children were asked to estimate the sum of two large numbers and decide if this estimated sum was smaller or larger compared to a third number. Our findings demonstrate the importance of multiple domain-general and mathematics-specific cognitive skills for identifying children at risk of struggling with mathematics and highlight the significance of early approximate arithmetic skills for the development of one's mathematical success. We argue the need for more research focus on explaining children's individual growth rates in mathematics achievement. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flexible work arrangements and work-family conflict after childbirth.

PubMed

Grice, Mira M; McGovern, Patricia M; Alexander, Bruce H

2008-10-01

Previous research has revealed that work-family conflict negatively influences women's health following childbirth. To examine if flexible work arrangements were associated with work-family conflict among women, 1 year after childbirth. Employed women, aged >or=18, were recruited while hospitalized for childbirth. Flexible work arrangements were measured at 6 months and work-family conflict was measured at 12 months. General linear models estimated the association between flexible work arrangements and work-family conflict. Of 1157 eligible participants, 522 were included in this analysis giving a 45% response rate. Compared to women who reported that taking time off was very hard, those who reported it was not too hard (beta = -0.80, SE = 0.36, P < 0.05) and not at all hard (beta = -1.08, SE = 0.35, P < 0.01) had lower average job spillover scores. There was no association between taking time off and home spillover. The ability to change hours was associated with greater home spillover (beta = 0.46, SE = 0.18, P < 0.05) but not with job spillover. The ability to take work home was associated with increased home spillover (beta = 0.35, SE = 0.14, P < 0.05) but not with job spillover. The ability to change work hours and the ability to take work home were associated with increased home spillover to work. The ability to take time off was associated with decreased job spillover to home. Additional research is needed to examine the intentional and unintentional consequences of flexible work arrangements.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

Predictive model for risk of cesarean section in pregnant women after induction of labor.

PubMed

Hernández-Martínez, Antonio; Pascual-Pedreño, Ana I; Baño-Garnés, Ana B; Melero-Jiménez, María R; Tenías-Burillo, José M; Molina-Alarcón, Milagros

2016-03-01

To develop a predictive model for risk of cesarean section in pregnant women after induction of labor. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 861 induced labors during 2009, 2010, and 2011 at Hospital "La Mancha-Centro" in Alcázar de San Juan, Spain. Multivariate analysis was used with binary logistic regression and areas under the ROC curves to determine predictive ability. Two predictive models were created: model A predicts the outcome at the time the woman is admitted to the hospital (before the decision to of the method of induction); and model B predicts the outcome at the time the woman is definitely admitted to the labor room. The predictive factors in the final model were: maternal height, body mass index, nulliparity, Bishop score, gestational age, macrosomia, gender of fetus, and the gynecologist's overall cesarean section rate. The predictive ability of model A was 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.80] and model B was 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.83). The predictive ability for pregnant women with previous cesarean section with model A was 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.94) and with model B was 0.80 (95% CI 0.64-0.96). For a probability of estimated cesarean section ≥80%, the models A and B presented a positive likelihood ratio (+LR) for cesarean section of 22 and 20, respectively. Also, for a likelihood of estimated cesarean section ≤10%, the models A and B presented a +LR for vaginal delivery of 13 and 6, respectively. These predictive models have a good discriminative ability, both overall and for all subgroups studied. This tool can be useful in clinical practice, especially for pregnant women with previous cesarean section and diabetes.

Efficiency of circulant diallels via mixed models in the selection of papaya genotypes resistant to foliar fungal diseases.

PubMed

Vivas, M; Silveira, S F; Viana, A P; Amaral, A T; Cardoso, D L; Pereira, M G

2014-07-02

Diallel crossing methods provide information regarding the performance of genitors between themselves and their hybrid combinations. However, with a large number of parents, the number of hybrid combinations that can be obtained and evaluated become limited. One option regarding the number of parents involved is the adoption of circulant diallels. However, information is lacking regarding diallel analysis using mixed models. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the method of linear mixed models to estimate, for variable resistance to foliar fungal diseases, components of general and specific combining ability in a circulant table with different s values. Subsequently, 50 diallels were simulated for each s value, and the correlations and estimates of the combining abilities of the different diallel combinations were analyzed. The circulant diallel method using mixed modeling was effective in the classification of genitors regarding their combining abilities relative to the complete diallels. The numbers of crosses in which each genitor(s) will compose the circulant diallel and the estimated heritability affect the combining ability estimates. With three crosses per parent, it is possible to obtain good concordance (correlation above 0.8) between the combining ability estimates.

Deriving Global Discharge Records from SWOT Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

River flows are poorly monitored in many regions of the world, hindering our ability to accurately estimate water global water usage, and thus estimate global water and energy budgets or the variability in the global water cycle. Recent developments in satellite remote sensing, such as water surface elevations from radar altimetry or surface water extents from visible/infrared imagery, aim to fill this void; however, the streamflow estimates derived from these are inherently intermittent in both space and time. There is then a need for new methods that are able to derive spatially and temporally continuous records of discharge from the many available data sources. One particular application of this will be the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time or space. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts our ability to reconstruct discharge records.River flows can be estimated throughout a basin by assimilating SWOT observations using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013]. This method is applied to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model is able to reconstruct basin-wide discharge from SWOT observations alone; however, the performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each, as well as the sensitivity of the reconstruction method to errors in the satellite retrieval. These properties are combined to estimate the "observability" of each basin. We then apply this metric globally and relate it to the discharge reconstruction performance to gain a better understanding of the impact that spatially and temporally sparse observations, such as those from SWOT, may have in basins with limited in-situ observations. Pan, M; Wood, E F 2013 Inverse streamflow routing, HESS 17(11):4577-4588

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

PubMed

Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

2016-01-01

Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

The impact of cognitive load on reward evaluation.

PubMed

Krigolson, Olave E; Hassall, Cameron D; Satel, Jason; Klein, Raymond M

2015-11-19

The neural systems that afford our ability to evaluate rewards and punishments are impacted by a variety of external factors. Here, we demonstrate that increased cognitive load reduces the functional efficacy of a reward processing system within the human medial-frontal cortex. In our paradigm, two groups of participants used performance feedback to estimate the exact duration of one second while electroencephalographic (EEG) data was recorded. Prior to performing the time estimation task, both groups were instructed to keep their eyes still and avoid blinking in line with well established EEG protocol. However, during performance of the time-estimation task, one of the two groups was provided with trial-to-trial-feedback about their performance on the time-estimation task and their eye movements to induce a higher level of cognitive load relative to participants in the other group who were solely provided with feedback about the accuracy of their temporal estimates. In line with previous work, we found that the higher level of cognitive load reduced the amplitude of the feedback-related negativity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with reward evaluation within the medial-frontal cortex. Importantly, our results provide further support that increased cognitive load reduces the functional efficacy of a neural system associated with reward processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beyond Crystal Engineering: Significant Enhancement of C2H2/CO2 Separation by Constructing Composite Material.

PubMed

Wu, Hui Qiong; Yan, Chang Sheng; Luo, Feng; Krishna, Rajamani

2018-04-02

Different from the established crystal engineering method for enhancing gas-separation performance, we demonstrate herein a distinct approach. In contrast to the pristine MOF (metal-organic framework) material, the C 2 H 2 /CO 2 separation ability for the resultant Ag NPs (nanoparticle)@Fe 2 O 3 @MOF composite material, estimated from breakthrough calculations, is greatly enhanced by 2 times, and further magnified up to 3 times under visible light irradiation.

Real-time airborne gamma-ray background estimation using NASVD with MLE and radiation transport for calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulisek, J. A.; Schweppe, J. E.; Stave, S. C.; Bernacki, B. E.; Jordan, D. V.; Stewart, T. N.; Seifert, C. E.; Kernan, W. J.

2015-06-01

Helicopter-mounted gamma-ray detectors can provide law enforcement officials the means to quickly and accurately detect, identify, and locate radiological threats over a wide geographical area. The ability to accurately distinguish radiological threat-generated gamma-ray signatures from background gamma radiation in real time is essential in order to realize this potential. This problem is non-trivial, especially in urban environments for which the background may change very rapidly during flight. This exacerbates the challenge of estimating background due to the poor counting statistics inherent in real-time airborne gamma-ray spectroscopy measurements. To address this challenge, we have developed a new technique for real-time estimation of background gamma radiation from aerial measurements without the need for human analyst intervention. The method can be calibrated using radiation transport simulations along with data from previous flights over areas for which the isotopic composition need not be known. Over the examined measured and simulated data sets, the method generated accurate background estimates even in the presence of a strong, 60Co source. The potential to track large and abrupt changes in background spectral shape and magnitude was demonstrated. The method can be implemented fairly easily in most modern computing languages and environments.

Are Smart People Less Racist? Verbal Ability, Anti-Black Prejudice, and the Principle-Policy Paradox

PubMed Central

Wodtke, Geoffrey T.

2016-01-01

It is commonly hypothesized that higher cognitive abilities promote racial tolerance and a greater commitment to racial equality, but an alternative theoretical framework contends that higher cognitive abilities merely enable members of a dominant racial group to articulate a more refined legitimizing ideology for racial inequality. According to this perspective, ideological refinement occurs in response to shifting patterns of racial conflict and is characterized by rejection of overt prejudice, superficial support for racial equality in principle, and opposition to policies that challenge the dominant group's status. This study estimates the impact of verbal ability on a comprehensive set of racial attitudes, including anti-black prejudice, views about black-white equality in principle, and racial policy support. It also investigates cohort differences in the effects of verbal ability on these attitudes. Results suggest that high-ability whites are less likely than low-ability whites to report prejudicial attitudes and more likely to support racial equality in principle. Despite these liberalizing effects, high-ability whites are no more likely to support a variety of remedial policies for racial inequality. Results also suggest that the ostensibly liberalizing effects of verbal ability on anti-black prejudice and views about racial equality in principle emerged slowly over time, consistent with ideological refinement theory. PMID:27134315

Are Smart People Less Racist? Verbal Ability, Anti-Black Prejudice, and the Principle-Policy Paradox.

PubMed

Wodtke, Geoffrey T

2016-01-08

It is commonly hypothesized that higher cognitive abilities promote racial tolerance and a greater commitment to racial equality, but an alternative theoretical framework contends that higher cognitive abilities merely enable members of a dominant racial group to articulate a more refined legitimizing ideology for racial inequality. According to this perspective, ideological refinement occurs in response to shifting patterns of racial conflict and is characterized by rejection of overt prejudice, superficial support for racial equality in principle, and opposition to policies that challenge the dominant group's status. This study estimates the impact of verbal ability on a comprehensive set of racial attitudes, including anti-black prejudice, views about black-white equality in principle, and racial policy support. It also investigates cohort differences in the effects of verbal ability on these attitudes. Results suggest that high-ability whites are less likely than low-ability whites to report prejudicial attitudes and more likely to support racial equality in principle. Despite these liberalizing effects, high-ability whites are no more likely to support a variety of remedial policies for racial inequality. Results also suggest that the ostensibly liberalizing effects of verbal ability on anti-black prejudice and views about racial equality in principle emerged slowly over time, consistent with ideological refinement theory.

10 CFR Appendix D to Part 30 - Criteria Relating to Use of Financial Tests and Self-Guarantee for Providing Reasonable Assurance...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... based on furnishing its own guarantee that funds will be available for decommissioning costs and on a... or at least 10 times the total current decommissioning cost estimate (or the current amount required... materially adversely affect the company's ability to pay for decommissioning costs. In connection with the...

10 CFR Appendix D to Part 30 - Criteria Relating to Use of Financial Tests and Self-Guarantee for Providing Reasonable Assurance...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... based on furnishing its own guarantee that funds will be available for decommissioning costs and on a... or at least 10 times the total current decommissioning cost estimate (or the current amount required... materially adversely affect the company's ability to pay for decommissioning costs. In connection with the...

Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

Treesearch

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

Toward a Real-Time Measurement-Based System for Estimation of Helicopter Engine Degradation Due to Compressor Erosion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Simo, Donald L.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a preliminary demonstration of an automated health assessment tool, capable of real-time on-board operation using existing engine control hardware. The tool allows operators to discern how rapidly individual turboshaft engines are degrading. As the compressor erodes, performance is lost, and with it the ability to generate power. Thus, such a tool would provide an instant assessment of the engine s fitness to perform a mission, and would help to pinpoint any abnormal wear or performance anomalies before they became serious, thereby decreasing uncertainty and enabling improved maintenance scheduling. The research described in the paper utilized test stand data from a T700-GE-401 turboshaft engine that underwent sand-ingestion testing to scale a model-based compressor efficiency degradation estimation algorithm. This algorithm was then applied to real-time Health Usage and Monitoring System (HUMS) data from a T700-GE-701C to track compressor efficiency on-line. The approach uses an optimal estimator called a Kalman filter. The filter is designed to estimate the compressor efficiency using only data from the engine s sensors as input.

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Effects of Eddy Viscosity on Time Correlations in Large Eddy Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Guowei; Rubinstein, R.; Wang, Lian-Ping; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Subgrid-scale (SGS) models for large. eddy simulation (LES) have generally been evaluated by their ability to predict single-time statistics of turbulent flows such as kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses. Recent application- of large eddy simulation to the evaluation of sound sources in turbulent flows, a problem in which time, correlations determine the frequency distribution of acoustic radiation, suggest that subgrid models should also be evaluated by their ability to predict time correlations in turbulent flows. This paper compares the two-point, two-time Eulerian velocity correlation evaluated from direct numerical simulation (DNS) with that evaluated from LES, using a spectral eddy viscosity, for isotropic homogeneous turbulence. It is found that the LES fields are too coherent, in the sense that their time correlations decay more slowly than the corresponding time. correlations in the DNS fields. This observation is confirmed by theoretical estimates of time correlations using the Taylor expansion technique. Tile reason for the slower decay is that the eddy viscosity does not include the random backscatter, which decorrelates fluid motion at large scales. An effective eddy viscosity associated with time correlations is formulated, to which the eddy viscosity associated with energy transfer is a leading order approximation.

A machine learning method to estimate PM2.5 concentrations across China with remote sensing, meteorological and land use information.

PubMed

Chen, Gongbo; Li, Shanshan; Knibbs, Luke D; Hamm, N A S; Cao, Wei; Li, Tiantian; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Hongyan; Abramson, Michael J; Guo, Yuming

2018-09-15

Machine learning algorithms have very high predictive ability. However, no study has used machine learning to estimate historical concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) at daily time scale in China at a national level. To estimate daily concentrations of PM 2.5 across China during 2005-2016. Daily ground-level PM 2.5 data were obtained from 1479 stations across China during 2014-2016. Data on aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological conditions and other predictors were downloaded. A random forests model (non-parametric machine learning algorithms) and two traditional regression models were developed to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 concentrations. The best-fit model was then utilized to estimate the daily concentrations of PM 2.5 across China with a resolution of 0.1° (≈10 km) during 2005-2016. The daily random forests model showed much higher predictive accuracy than the other two traditional regression models, explaining the majority of spatial variability in daily PM 2.5 [10-fold cross-validation (CV) R 2  = 83%, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) = 28.1 μg/m 3 ]. At the monthly and annual time-scale, the explained variability of average PM 2.5 increased up to 86% (RMSE = 10.7 μg/m 3 and 6.9 μg/m 3 , respectively). Taking advantage of a novel application of modeling framework and the most recent ground-level PM 2.5 observations, the machine learning method showed higher predictive ability than previous studies. Random forests approach can be used to estimate historical exposure to PM 2.5 in China with high accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Kinetic Measurements to Estimate and Predict Protein-Ligand Residence Times.

PubMed

Mollica, Luca; Theret, Isabelle; Antoine, Mathias; Perron-Sierra, Françoise; Charton, Yves; Fourquez, Jean-Marie; Wierzbicki, Michel; Boutin, Jean A; Ferry, Gilles; Decherchi, Sergio; Bottegoni, Giovanni; Ducrot, Pierre; Cavalli, Andrea

2016-08-11

Ligand-target residence time is emerging as a key drug discovery parameter because it can reliably predict drug efficacy in vivo. Experimental approaches to binding and unbinding kinetics are nowadays available, but we still lack reliable computational tools for predicting kinetics and residence time. Most attempts have been based on brute-force molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which are CPU-demanding and not yet particularly accurate. We recently reported a new scaled-MD-based protocol, which showed potential for residence time prediction in drug discovery. Here, we further challenged our procedure's predictive ability by applying our methodology to a series of glucokinase activators that could be useful for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus. We combined scaled MD with experimental kinetics measurements and X-ray crystallography, promptly checking the protocol's reliability by directly comparing computational predictions and experimental measures. The good agreement highlights the potential of our scaled-MD-based approach as an innovative method for computationally estimating and predicting drug residence times.

Efficient Learning of Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu-Ying; Li, Shuang; Li, Fuxin; Song, Le; Rehg, James M.

2016-01-01

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer’s disease dataset. PMID:27019571

Being on sick leave due to heart failure: self-rated health, encounters with healthcare professionals and social insurance officers and self-estimated ability to return to work.

PubMed

Nordgren, Lena; Söderlund, Anne

2015-01-01

Younger people with heart failure often experience poor self-rated health. Furthermore, poor self-rated health is associated with long-term sick leave and disability pension. Socio-demographic factors affect the ability to return to work. However, little is known about people on sick leave due to heart failure. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between self-rated health, mood, socio-demographic factors, sick leave compensation, encounters with healthcare professionals and social insurance officers and self-estimated ability to return to work, for people on sick leave due to heart failure. This population-based investigation had a cross-sectional design. Data were collected in Sweden in 2012 from two official registries and from a postal questionnaire. In total, 590 subjects, aged 23-67, responded (response rate 45.8%). Descriptive statistics, correlation analyses (Spearman bivariate analysis) and logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations. Poor self-rated health was strongly associated with full sick leave compensation (OR = 4.1, p < .001). Compared self-rated health was moderately associated with low income (OR =  .6, p =  .003). Good self-rated health was strongly associated with positive encounters with healthcare professionals (OR = 3.0, p =  .022) and to the impact of positive encounters with healthcare professionals on self-estimated ability to return to work (OR = 3.3, p < .001). People with heart failure are sicklisted for long periods of time and to a great extent receive disability pension. Not being able to work imposes reduced quality of life. Positive encounters with healthcare professionals and social insurance officers can be supportive when people with heart failure struggle to remain in working life.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Space Use and Movement of a Neotropical Top Predator: The Endangered Jaguar

PubMed Central

Stabach, Jared A.; Fleming, Chris H.; Calabrese, Justin M.; De Paula, Rogério C.; Ferraz, Kátia M. P. M.; Kantek, Daniel L. Z.; Miyazaki, Selma S.; Pereira, Thadeu D. C.; Araujo, Gediendson R.; Paviolo, Agustin; De Angelo, Carlos; Di Bitetti, Mario S.; Cruz, Paula; Lima, Fernando; Cullen, Laury; Sana, Denis A.; Ramalho, Emiliano E.; Carvalho, Marina M.; Soares, Fábio H. S.; Zimbres, Barbara; Silva, Marina X.; Moraes, Marcela D. F.; Vogliotti, Alexandre; May, Joares A.; Haberfeld, Mario; Rampim, Lilian; Sartorello, Leonardo; Ribeiro, Milton C.; Leimgruber, Peter

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating home range and understanding movement behavior can provide important information on ecological processes. Advances in data collection and analysis have improved our ability to estimate home range and movement parameters, both of which have the potential to impact species conservation. Fitting continuous-time movement model to data and incorporating the autocorrelated kernel density estimator (AKDE), we investigated range residency of forty-four jaguars fit with GPS collars across five biomes in Brazil and Argentina. We assessed home range and movement parameters of range resident animals and compared AKDE estimates with kernel density estimates (KDE). We accounted for differential space use and movement among individuals, sex, region, and habitat quality. Thirty-three (80%) of collared jaguars were range resident. Home range estimates using AKDE were 1.02 to 4.80 times larger than KDE estimates that did not consider autocorrelation. Males exhibited larger home ranges, more directional movement paths, and a trend towards larger distances traveled per day. Jaguars with the largest home ranges occupied the Atlantic Forest, a biome with high levels of deforestation and high human population density. Our results fill a gap in the knowledge of the species’ ecology with an aim towards better conservation of this endangered/critically endangered carnivore—the top predator in the Neotropics. PMID:28030568

Kriging and local polynomial methods for blending satellite-derived and gauge precipitation estimates to support hydrologic early warning systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William

2016-01-01

Robust estimates of precipitation in space and time are important for efficient natural resource management and for mitigating natural hazards. This is particularly true in regions with developing infrastructure and regions that are frequently exposed to extreme events. Gauge observations of rainfall are sparse but capture the precipitation process with high fidelity. Due to its high resolution and complete spatial coverage, satellite-derived rainfall data are an attractive alternative in data-sparse regions and are often used to support hydrometeorological early warning systems. Satellite-derived precipitation data, however, tend to underrepresent extreme precipitation events. Thus, it is often desirable to blend spatially extensive satellite-derived rainfall estimates with high-fidelity rain gauge observations to obtain more accurate precipitation estimates. In this research, we use two different methods, namely, ordinary kriging and κ-nearest neighbor local polynomials, to blend rain gauge observations with the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates in data-sparse Central America and Colombia. The utility of these methods in producing blended precipitation estimates at pentadal (five-day) and monthly time scales is demonstrated. We find that these blending methods significantly improve the satellite-derived estimates and are competitive in their ability to capture extreme precipitation.

Space Use and Movement of a Neotropical Top Predator: The Endangered Jaguar.

PubMed

Morato, Ronaldo G; Stabach, Jared A; Fleming, Chris H; Calabrese, Justin M; De Paula, Rogério C; Ferraz, Kátia M P M; Kantek, Daniel L Z; Miyazaki, Selma S; Pereira, Thadeu D C; Araujo, Gediendson R; Paviolo, Agustin; De Angelo, Carlos; Di Bitetti, Mario S; Cruz, Paula; Lima, Fernando; Cullen, Laury; Sana, Denis A; Ramalho, Emiliano E; Carvalho, Marina M; Soares, Fábio H S; Zimbres, Barbara; Silva, Marina X; Moraes, Marcela D F; Vogliotti, Alexandre; May, Joares A; Haberfeld, Mario; Rampim, Lilian; Sartorello, Leonardo; Ribeiro, Milton C; Leimgruber, Peter

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating home range and understanding movement behavior can provide important information on ecological processes. Advances in data collection and analysis have improved our ability to estimate home range and movement parameters, both of which have the potential to impact species conservation. Fitting continuous-time movement model to data and incorporating the autocorrelated kernel density estimator (AKDE), we investigated range residency of forty-four jaguars fit with GPS collars across five biomes in Brazil and Argentina. We assessed home range and movement parameters of range resident animals and compared AKDE estimates with kernel density estimates (KDE). We accounted for differential space use and movement among individuals, sex, region, and habitat quality. Thirty-three (80%) of collared jaguars were range resident. Home range estimates using AKDE were 1.02 to 4.80 times larger than KDE estimates that did not consider autocorrelation. Males exhibited larger home ranges, more directional movement paths, and a trend towards larger distances traveled per day. Jaguars with the largest home ranges occupied the Atlantic Forest, a biome with high levels of deforestation and high human population density. Our results fill a gap in the knowledge of the species' ecology with an aim towards better conservation of this endangered/critically endangered carnivore-the top predator in the Neotropics.

I've Fallen and I Can't Get up: Can High-Ability Students Recover from Early Mistakes in CAT?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rulison, Kelly L.; Loken, Eric

2009-01-01

A difficult result to interpret in Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) occurs when an ability estimate initially drops and then ascends continuously until the test ends, suggesting that the true ability may be higher than implied by the final estimate. This study explains why this asymmetry occurs and shows that early mistakes by high-ability…

Macro-organizational factors, the incidence of work disability, and work ability among the total workforce of home care workers in Sweden.

PubMed

Dellve, Lotta; Karlberg, Catarina; Allebeck, Peter; Herloff, Birgitta; Hagberg, Mats

2006-01-01

To investigate the importance of macro-organizational factors, i.e. organizational sociodemographic and socioeconomic preconditions, of the municipal incidence of long-term sick leave, disability pension, and prevalence of workers with long-term work ability among home care workers. In an ecological study design, data from national databases were combined by record linkage. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used to estimate and interpret macro-organizational factors (economic resources, region, unemployment, employment, occupational rehabilitation, return to work, age structures of inhabitants and home care workers). The incidence of long-term sick leave among female home care workers was twice as high as that of male home care workers, and incidence of disability pension was about four times as high for the women. A great variation in municipal incidence of long-term sick leave, disability pension, and long-term work ability (101-264, 0.6-19.6, and 913-1,279 per 1,000 full-time equivalent workers and year) was also found. The strongest single factor for long-term work ability was a high proportion of part-time or hourly paid employees, which explained 35% of the municipal variation. Macro-organizational factors explained long-term work ability (47-62% explained variance) better than long-term sick leave (33% explained variance). There was a low rehabilitation activity; only 2% received occupational rehabilitation and 5% of those on sick leave longer than 2 weeks returned to work within 30 days. The differences in the municipal proportion of work ability incidence indicate a preventive potential, especially related to employment and return to work after sick leave.

Bias Correction for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-05-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinming

2005-01-01

Lord's bias function and the weighted likelihood estimation method are effective in reducing the bias of the maximum likelihood estimate of an examinee's ability under the assumption that the true item parameters are known. This paper presents simulation studies to determine the effectiveness of these two methods in reducing the bias when the item…

Estimation of Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Curves. Research Report 83-1. Mathematical Sciences Technical Report No. 130.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsutakawa, Robert K.

This paper presents a method for estimating certain characteristics of test items which are designed to measure ability, or knowledge, in a particular area. Under the assumption that ability parameters are sampled from a normal distribution, the EM algorithm is used to derive maximum likelihood estimates to item parameters of the two-parameter…

Explaining the increasing heritability of cognitive ability across development: a meta-analysis of longitudinal twin and adoption studies.

PubMed

Briley, Daniel A; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M

2013-09-01

Genes account for increasing proportions of variation in cognitive ability across development, but the mechanisms underlying these increases remain unclear. We conducted a meta-analysis of longitudinal behavioral genetic studies spanning infancy to adolescence. We identified relevant data from 16 articles with 11 unique samples containing a total of 11,500 twin and sibling pairs who were all reared together and measured at least twice between the ages of 6 months and 18 years. Longitudinal behavioral genetic models were used to estimate the extent to which early genetic influences on cognition were amplified over time and the extent to which innovative genetic influences arose with time. Results indicated that in early childhood, innovative genetic influences predominate but that innovation quickly diminishes, and amplified influences account for increasing heritability following age 8 years.

Estimated flood-inundation maps for Cowskin Creek in western Wichita, Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Studley, Seth E.

2003-01-01

The October 31, 1998, flood on Cowskin Creek in western Wichita, Kansas, caused millions of dollars in damages. Emergency management personnel and flood mitigation teams had difficulty in efficiently identifying areas affected by the flooding, and no warning was given to residents because flood-inundation information was not available. To provide detailed information about future flooding on Cowskin Creek, high-resolution estimated flood-inundation maps were developed using geographic information system technology and advanced hydraulic analysis. Two-foot-interval land-surface elevation data from a 1996 flood insurance study were used to create a three-dimensional topographic representation of the study area for hydraulic analysis. The data computed from the hydraulic analyses were converted into geographic information system format with software from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center. The results were overlaid on the three-dimensional topographic representation of the study area to produce maps of estimated flood-inundation areas and estimated depths of water in the inundated areas for 1-foot increments on the basis of stream stage at an index streamflow-gaging station. A Web site (http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/cowskin.floodwatch) was developed to provide the public with information pertaining to flooding in the study area. The Web site shows graphs of the real-time streamflow data for U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in the area and monitors the National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center for Cowskin Creek flood-forecast information. When a flood is forecast for the Cowskin Creek Basin, an estimated flood-inundation map is displayed for the stream stage closest to the National Weather Service's forecasted peak stage. Users of the Web site are able to view the estimated flood-inundation maps for selected stages at any time and to access information about this report and about flooding in general. Flood recovery teams also have the ability to view the estimated flood-inundation map pertaining to the most recent flood. The availability of these maps and the ability to monitor the real-time stream stage through the U.S. Geological Survey Web site provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for evacuation and rescue efforts in the event of a flood as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

A cross-sectional study of mathematics achievement, estimation skills, and academic self-perception in students of varying ability.

PubMed

Montague, Marjorie; van Garderen, Delinda

2003-01-01

This study investigated students' mathematics achievement, estimation ability, use of estimation strategies, and academic self-perception. Students with learning disabilities (LD), average achievers, and intellectually gifted students (N = 135) in fourth, sixth, and eighth grade participated in the study. They were assessed to determine their mathematics achievement, ability to estimate discrete quantities, knowledge and use of estimation strategies, and perception of academic competence. The results indicated that the students with LD performed significantly lower than their peers on the math achievement measures, as expected, but viewed themselves to be as academically competent as the average achievers did. Students with LD and average achievers scored significantly lower than gifted students on all estimation measures, but they differed significantly from one another only on the estimation strategy use measure. Interestingly, even gifted students did not seem to have a well-developed understanding of estimation and, like the other students, did poorly on the first estimation measure. The accuracy of their estimates seemed to improve, however, when students were asked open-ended questions about the strategies they used to arrive at their estimates. Although students with LD did not differ from average achievers in their estimation accuracy, they used significantly fewer effective estimation strategies. Implications for instruction are discussed.

The influence of chronic health problems on work ability and productivity at work: a longitudinal study among older employees.

PubMed

Leijten, Fenna R M; van den Heuvel, Swenne G; Ybema, Jan Fekke; van der Beek, Allard J; Robroek, Suzan J W; Burdorf, Alex

2014-09-01

This study aimed to assess the influence of chronic health problems on work ability and productivity at work among older employees using different methodological approaches in the analysis of longitudinal studies. Data from employees, aged 45-64, of the longitudinal Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation was used (N=8411). Using three annual online questionnaires, we assessed the presence of seven chronic health problems, work ability (scale 0-10), and productivity at work (scale 0-10). Three linear regression generalized estimating equations were used. The time-lag model analyzed the relation of health problems with work ability and productivity at work after one year; the autoregressive model adjusted for work ability and productivity in the preceding year; and the third model assessed the relation of incidence and recovery with changes in work ability and productivity at work within the same year. Workers with health problems had lower work ability at one-year follow-up than workers without these health problems, varying from a 2.0% reduction with diabetes mellitus to a 9.5% reduction with psychological health problems relative to the overall mean (time-lag). Work ability of persons with health problems decreased slightly more during one-year follow-up than that of persons without these health problems, ranging from 1.4% with circulatory to 5.9% with psychological health problems (autoregressive). Incidence related to larger decreases in work ability, from 0.6% with diabetes mellitus to 19.0% with psychological health problems, than recovery related to changes in work ability, from a 1.8% decrease with circulatory to an 8.5% increase with psychological health problems (incidence-recovery). Only workers with musculoskeletal and psychological health problems had lower productivity at work at one-year follow-up than workers without those health problems (1.2% and 5.6%, respectively, time-lag). All methodological approaches indicated that chronic health problems were associated with decreased work ability and, to a much lesser extent, lower productivity at work. The choice for a particular methodological approach considerably influenced the strength of the associations, with the incidence of health problems resulting in the largest decreases in work ability and productivity at work.

Design and Characterization of an Exoskeleton for Perturbing the Knee During Gait.

PubMed

Tucker, Michael R; Shirota, Camila; Lambercy, Olivier; Sulzer, James S; Gassert, Roger

2017-10-01

An improved understanding of mechanical impedance modulation in human joints would provide insights about the neuromechanics underlying functional movements. Experimental estimation of impedance requires specialized tools with highly reproducible perturbation dynamics and reliable measurement capabilities. This paper presents the design and mechanical characterization of the ETH Knee Perturbator: an actuated exoskeleton for perturbing the knee during gait. A novel wearable perturbation device was developed based on specific experimental objectives. Bench-top tests validated the device's torque limiting capability and characterized the time delays of the on-board clutch. Further tests demonstrated the device's ability to perform system identification on passive loads with static initial conditions. Finally, the ability of the device to consistently perturb human gait was evaluated through a pilot study on three unimpaired subjects. The ETH Knee Perturbator is capable of identifying mass-spring systems within 15% accuracy, accounting for over 95% of the variance in the observed torque in 10 out of 16 cases. Five-degree extension and flexion perturbations were executed on human subjects with an onset timing precision of 2.52% of swing phase duration and a rise time of 36.5 ms. The ETH Knee Perturbator can deliver safe, precisely timed, and controlled perturbations, which is a prerequisite for the estimation of knee joint impedance during gait. Tools such as this can enhance models of neuromuscular control, which may improve rehabilitative outcomes following impairments affecting gait and advance the design and control of assistive devices.

Work ability and work-related stress: A cross-sectional study of obstetrical nurses in urban northeastern Ontario.

PubMed

Nowrouzi, Behdin; Lightfoot, Nancy; Carter, Lorraine; Larivière, Michel; Rukholm, Ellen; Schinke, Robert; Belanger-Gardner, Diane

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine: 1) if quality of work life (QWL), location of cross-training, stress variables, and various demographic factors in nurses are associated with work ability, and 2) nursing occupational stress, QWL, and various associated factors are related with nurses' work ability. There is limited research examining the obstetrical nursing environment. Given the amount of time and energy people expend at the workplace, it is crucial for employees to be satisfied with their lives at work. This cross sectional study was conducted in 2012 in four hospitals in northeastern Ontario, Canada. A stratified random sample of registered nurses (n= 111) were selected. The majority of participants were female (94.6%) ranging in age from 24 to 64 years (M = 41.9, s.d. = 10.2). For the stress and QWL model, one variable: QWL (home-work support - see Methods for definition) (p= 0.015), cross-trained (see Methods for definition) nurses (p= 0.048), and having more than 4 patients per shift (p= 0.024) significantly contributed to the variance in work ability scores. In the logistic regression model, the odds of a higher work ability for nurses who received home-work support were estimated to be 1.32 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.66) times the odds of a higher work ability for nurses who did not receive home-work support. Work ability in the work environment of obstetrical nursing is important. To be high functioning, workplaces should maximize the use of their employees' actual and potential skills.

Scene-based nonuniformity correction for focal plane arrays by the method of the inverse covariance form.

PubMed

Torres, Sergio N; Pezoa, Jorge E; Hayat, Majeed M

2003-10-10

What is to our knowledge a new scene-based algorithm for nonuniformity correction in infrared focal-plane array sensors has been developed. The technique is based on the inverse covariance form of the Kalman filter (KF), which has been reported previously and used in estimating the gain and bias of each detector in the array from scene data. The gain and the bias of each detector in the focal-plane array are assumed constant within a given sequence of frames, corresponding to a certain time and operational conditions, but they are allowed to randomly drift from one sequence to another following a discrete-time Gauss-Markov process. The inverse covariance form filter estimates the gain and the bias of each detector in the focal-plane array and optimally updates them as they drift in time. The estimation is performed with considerably higher computational efficiency than the equivalent KF. The ability of the algorithm in compensating for fixed-pattern noise in infrared imagery and in reducing the computational complexity is demonstrated by use of both simulated and real data.

A real time neural net estimator of fatigue life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troudet, T.; Merrill, W.

1990-01-01

A neural network architecture is proposed to estimate, in real-time, the fatigue life of mechanical components, as part of the intelligent Control System for Reusable Rocket Engines. Arbitrary component loading values were used as input to train a two hidden-layer feedforward neural net to estimate component fatigue damage. The ability of the net to learn, based on a local strain approach, the mapping between load sequence and fatigue damage has been demonstrated for a uniaxial specimen. Because of its demonstrated performance, the neural computation may be extended to complex cases where the loads are biaxial or triaxial, and the geometry of the component is complex (e.g., turbopumps blades). The generality of the approach is such that load/damage mappings can be directly extracted from experimental data without requiring any knowledge of the stress/strain profile of the component. In addition, the parallel network architecture allows real-time life calculations even for high-frequency vibrations. Owing to its distributed nature, the neural implementation will be robust and reliable, enabling its use in hostile environments such as rocket engines.

Real-time shear velocity imaging using sonoelastographic techniques.

PubMed

Hoyt, Kenneth; Parker, Kevin J; Rubens, Deborah J

2007-07-01

In this paper, a novel sonoelastographic technique for estimating local shear velocities from propagating shear wave interference patterns (termed crawling waves) is introduced. A relationship between the local crawling wave spatial phase derivatives and local shear wave velocity is derived with phase derivatives estimated using an autocorrelation technique. Results from homogeneous phantoms demonstrate the ability of sonoelastographic shear velocity imaging to quantify the true underlying shear velocity distributions as verified using time-of-flight measurements. Heterogeneous phantom results reveal the capacity for lesion detection and shear velocity quantification as validated from mechanical measurements on phantom samples. Experimental results obtained from a prostate specimen illustrated feasibility for shear velocity imaging in tissue. More importantly, high-contrast visualization of focal carcinomas was demonstrated introducing the clinical potential of this novel sonoelastographic imaging technique.

Equivalent source modeling of the main field using MAGSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The software was considerably enhanced to accommodate a more comprehensive examination of data available for field modeling using the equivalent sources method by (1) implementing a dynamic core allocation capability into the software system for the automatic dimensioning of the normal matrix; (2) implementing a time dependent model for the dipoles; (3) incorporating the capability to input specialized data formats in a fashion similar to models in spherical harmonics; and (4) implementing the optional ability to simultaneously estimate observatory anomaly biases where annual means data is utilized. The time dependence capability was demonstrated by estimating a component model of 21 deg resolution using the 14 day MAGSAT data set of Goddard's MGST (12/80). The equivalent source model reproduced both the constant and the secular variation found in MGST (12/80).

Experimental study and neural network modeling of sugarcane bagasse pretreatment with H2SO4 and O3 for cellulosic material conversion to sugar.

PubMed

Gitifar, Vahid; Eslamloueyan, Reza; Sarshar, Mohammad

2013-11-01

In this study, pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse and subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis is investigated using two categories of pretreatment methods: dilute acid (DA) pretreatment and combined DA-ozonolysis (DAO) method. Both methods are accomplished at different solid ratios, sulfuric acid concentrations, autoclave residence times, bagasse moisture content, and ozonolysis time. The results show that the DAO pretreatment can significantly increase the production of glucose compared to DA method. Applying k-fold cross validation method, two optimal artificial neural networks (ANNs) are trained for estimations of glucose concentrations for DA and DAO pretreatment methods. Comparing the modeling results with experimental data indicates that the proposed ANNs have good estimation abilities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-Based IN SITU Parameter Estimation of Ultrasonic Guided Waves in AN Isotropic Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, James S.; Michaels, Jennifer E.

2010-02-01

Most ultrasonic systems employing guided waves for flaw detection require information such as dispersion curves, transducer locations, and expected propagation loss. Degraded system performance may result if assumed parameter values do not accurately reflect the actual environment. By characterizing the propagating environment in situ at the time of test, potentially erroneous a priori estimates are avoided and performance of ultrasonic guided wave systems can be improved. A four-part model-based algorithm is described in the context of previous work that estimates model parameters whereby an assumed propagation model is used to describe the received signals. This approach builds upon previous work by demonstrating the ability to estimate parameters for the case of single mode propagation. Performance is demonstrated on signals obtained from theoretical dispersion curves, finite element modeling, and experimental data.

Evaluating the Real-time and Offline Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to regional, network-based earthquake early warning (EEW). Bayes' theorem as applied in the VS algorithm states that the most probable source estimates at any given time is a combination of contributions from relatively static prior information that does not change over the timescale of earthquake rupture and a likelihood function that evolves with time to take into account incoming pick and amplitude observations from the on-going earthquake. Potentially useful types of prior information include network topology or station health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. The VS codes provide magnitude and location estimates once picks are available at 4 stations; these source estimates are subsequently updated each second. The algorithm predicts the geographical distribution of peak ground acceleration and velocity using the estimated magnitude and location and appropriate ground motion prediction equations; the peak ground motion estimates are also updated each second. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California and Switzerland is funded by the Seismic Early Warning for Europe (SAFER) project. The VS method is one of three EEW algorithms whose real-time performance is being evaluated and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) EEW project. A crucial component of operational EEW algorithms is the ability to distinguish between noise and earthquake-related signals in real-time. We discuss various empirical approaches that allow the VS algorithm to operate in the presence of noise. Real-time operation of the VS codes at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) began in July 2008. On average, the VS algorithm provides initial magnitude, location, origin time, and ground motion distribution estimates within 17 seconds of the earthquake origin time. These initial estimate times are dominated by the time for 4 acceptable picks to be available, and thus are heavily influenced by the station density in a given region; these initial estimate times also include the effects of telemetry delay, which ranges between 6 and 15 seconds at the SCSN, and processing time (~1 second). Other relevant performance statistics include: 95% of initial real-time location estimates are within 20 km of the actual epicenter, 97% of initial real-time magnitude estimates are within one magnitude unit of the network magnitude. Extension of real-time VS operations to networks in Northern California is an on-going effort. In Switzerland, the VS codes have been run on offline waveform data from over 125 earthquakes recorded by the Swiss Digital Seismic Network (SDSN) and the Swiss Strong Motion Network (SSMS). We discuss the performance of the VS algorithm on these datasets in terms of magnitude, location, and ground motion estimation.

Integrating biology, field logistics, and simulations to optimize parameter estimation for imperiled species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanier, Wendy E.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.

2016-01-01

Conservation of imperiled species often requires knowledge of vital rates and population dynamics. However, these can be difficult to estimate for rare species and small populations. This problem is further exacerbated when individuals are not available for detection during some surveys due to limited access, delaying surveys and creating mismatches between the breeding behavior and survey timing. Here we use simulations to explore the impacts of this issue using four hypothetical boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) populations, representing combinations of logistical access (accessible, inaccessible) and breeding behavior (synchronous, asynchronous). We examine the bias and precision of survival and breeding probability estimates generated by survey designs that differ in effort and timing for these populations. Our findings indicate that the logistical access of a site and mismatch between the breeding behavior and survey design can greatly limit the ability to yield accurate and precise estimates of survival and breeding probabilities. Simulations similar to what we have performed can help researchers determine an optimal survey design(s) for their system before initiating sampling efforts.

A Direction of Arrival Estimation Algorithm Based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Junyao; Cao, Fei; Liu, Lipeng

2018-02-01

The results show that the modified DSM is able to predict local buckling capacity of hot-rolled RHS and SHS accurately. In order to solve the problem of the weak ability of anti-radiation missile against active decoy in modern electronic warfare, a direction of arrival estimation algorithm based on orthogonal matching pursuit is proposed in this paper. The algorithm adopts the compression sensing technology. This paper uses array antennas to receive signals, gets the sparse representation of signals, and then designs the corresponding perception matrix. The signal is reconstructed by orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm to estimate the optimal solution. At the same time, the error of the whole measurement system is analyzed and simulated, and the validity of this algorithm is verified. The algorithm greatly reduces the measurement time, the quantity of equipment and the total amount of the calculation, and accurately estimates the angle and strength of the incoming signal. This technology can effectively improve the angle resolution of the missile, which is of reference significance to the research of anti-active decoy.

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

Improved automation of dissolved organic carbon sampling for organic-rich surface waters.

PubMed

Grayson, Richard P; Holden, Joseph

2016-02-01

In-situ UV-Vis spectrophotometers offer the potential for improved estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes for organic-rich systems such as peatlands because they are able to sample and log DOC proxies automatically through time at low cost. In turn, this could enable improved total carbon budget estimates for peatlands. The ability of such instruments to accurately measure DOC depends on a number of factors, not least of which is how absorbance measurements relate to DOC and the environmental conditions. Here we test the ability of a S::can Spectro::lyser™ for measuring DOC in peatland streams with routinely high DOC concentrations. Through analysis of the spectral response data collected by the instrument we have been able to accurately measure DOC up to 66 mg L(-1), which is more than double the original upper calibration limit for this particular instrument. A linear regression modelling approach resulted in an accuracy >95%. The greatest accuracy was achieved when absorbance values for several different wavelengths were used at the same time in the model. However, an accuracy >90% was achieved using absorbance values for a single wavelength to predict DOC concentration. Our calculations indicated that, for organic-rich systems, in-situ measurement with a scanning spectrophotometer can improve fluvial DOC flux estimates by 6 to 8% compared with traditional sampling methods. Thus, our techniques pave the way for improved long-term carbon budget calculations from organic-rich systems such as peatlands. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle index and work ability.

PubMed

Kaleta, Dorota; Makowiec-Dabrowska, Teresa; Jegier, Anna

2006-01-01

In many countries around the world, negative changes in lifestyles are observed. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of selected lifestyle indicators on work ability among professionally active individuals. The study was performed in the randomly selected group of full-time employees (94 men and 93 women) living in the city of Lódź. Work ability was measured with the work ability index and lifestyle characteristic was assessed with the healthy lifestyle index. We analyzed four lifestyle indicators: non-smoking, healthy weight, fiber intake per day, and regular physical activity. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals to control the effects of lifestyle and work ability. The analysis of lifestyle index indicated that 27.7, 30.9, 27.7 and 11.7% of men and 15.1, 21.5, 35.5 and 26.9% of women scored 0, 1, 2, 3 points, respectively. Only 2.1% of men and 1.1% of women met the criteria for the healthy lifestyle (score 4). Work ability was excellent, good and moderate in 38.3, 46.8 and 14.9% of men, and in 39.8, 14.9 and 19.3% of women, respectively. Poor work ability was found in 9.7% women. Work ability was strongly associated with lifestyle in both men and women. Among men with index score = 0, the risk of moderate work ability was nearly seven times higher than in men whose lifestyle index score exceeded 1 or more points (OR = 6.67; 95% CI: 1.94-22.90). Among women with lifestyle index score = 0, the risk of moderate or lower work ability was also highly elevated as compared to those with lifestyle index = 1 or higher (OR = 14.44; 95% CI: 3.53-59.04). Prophylactic schedules associated with the improvement of lifestyles should be addressed to all adults. Future programs aimed at increasing work ability should consider work- and lifestyle-related factors.

Limiting Regret: Building the Army We Will Need

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response , including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing...NUMBER OF PAGES 23 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298...Army’s ability to help execute the national defense strategy against key threats. The documentation for this analysis was funded by philanthropic

Airman and Family Resilience: Lessons from the Scientific Literature

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

negative emotions, and thus the program could contribute to feelings of self-condemnation and shame , limiting their ability to work through painful...health by reducing dietary fat intake, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and tobacco use. Such programs provide employers a return on investment...intake includes the frequency of consumption, portion size, dietary supplements, fat intake, and restaurant eating; real-time measures or estimates of

Studies of the Ability to Hold the Eye in Eccentric Gaze: Measurements in Normal Subjects with the Head Erect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reschke, Millard F.; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Leigh, R. John; Wood, Scott J.; Paloski, William H.; Kornilova, Ludmila

2006-01-01

We studied the ability to hold the eyes in eccentric horizontal or vertical gaze angles in 68 normal humans, age range 19-56. Subjects attempted to sustain visual fixation of a briefly flashed target located 30 in the horizontal plane and 15 in the vertical plane in a dark environment. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting centripetal eye drifts by exponential curves and calculating the time constant (t(sub c)) of these slow phases of gazeevoked nystagmus. Although the distribution of time-constant measurements (t(sub c)) in our normal subjects was extremely skewed due to occasional test runs that exhibited near-perfect stability (large t(sub c) values), we found that log10(tc) was approximately normally distributed within classes of target direction. Therefore, statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of z identical with log10t(sub c). Subjects showed considerable variation in their eyedrift performance over repeated trials; nonetheless, statistically significant differences emerged: values of tc were significantly higher for gaze elicited to targets in the horizontal plane than for the vertical plane (P less than 10(exp -5), suggesting eccentric gazeholding is more stable in the horizontal than in the vertical plane. Furthermore, centrifugal eye drifts were observed in 13.3, 16.0 and 55.6% of cases for horizontal, upgaze and downgaze tests, respectively. Fifth percentile values of the time constant were estimated to be 10.2 sec, 3.3 sec and 3.8 sec for horizontal, upward and downward gaze, respectively. The difference between horizontal and vertical gazeholding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied in a clinical setting to patients who were exposed to environments that may have modified their central integrators and thus require monitoring. Patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus can be flagged by comparing to the above established normative criteria.

Comparing Different Approaches of Bias Correction for Ability Estimation in IRT Models. Research Report. ETS RR-08-13

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Zhang, Jinming

2008-01-01

The method of maximum-likelihood is typically applied to item response theory (IRT) models when the ability parameter is estimated while conditioning on the true item parameters. In practice, the item parameters are unknown and need to be estimated first from a calibration sample. Lewis (1985) and Zhang and Lu (2007) proposed the expected response…

The effect of gestational diabetes on proliferation capacity and viability of human umbilical cord-derived stromal cells.

PubMed

Wajid, Nadia; Naseem, Rashida; Anwar, Sanam Saiqa; Awan, Sana Javaid; Ali, Muhammad; Javed, Sara; Ali, Fatima

2015-09-01

Stomal cells derived from Wharton's jelly of human umbilical cord (WJMSCs) are considered as the potential therapeutic agents for regeneration and are getting famous for stem cell banking. Our study aims to evaluate the effects of gestational diabetes on proliferation capacity and viability of WJMSCs. Mesenchymal stromal cells were isolated from Wharton's jelly of human umbilical cords from normal and gestational diabetic (DWJMSCs) mothers. Growth patterns of both types of cells were analyzed through MTT assay and population doubling time. Cell survival, cell death and glucose utilization were estimated through trypan blue exclusion assay, LDH assay and glucose detection assay respectively. Angiogenic ability was evaluated by immunocytochemistry and ELISA for VEGF A. Anti-cancerous potential was analyzed on HeLa cells. DWJMSCs exhibited low proliferative rate, increased population doubling time, reduced cell viability and increased cell death. Interestingly, DWJMSCs were found to have a reduced glucose utilization and anti-cancerous ability while enhanced angiogenic ability. Gestational diabetes induces adverse effects on growth, angiogenic and anti-cancerous potential of WJMSCs.

Estimating irradiated nuclear fuel characteristics by nonlinear multivariate regression of simulated gamma-ray emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åberg Lindell, M.; Andersson, P.; Grape, S.; Håkansson, A.; Thulin, M.

2018-07-01

In addition to verifying operator declared parameters of spent nuclear fuel, the ability to experimentally infer such parameters with a minimum of intrusiveness is of great interest and has been long-sought after in the nuclear safeguards community. It can also be anticipated that such ability would be of interest for quality assurance in e.g. recycling facilities in future Generation IV nuclear fuel cycles. One way to obtain information regarding spent nuclear fuel is to measure various gamma-ray intensities using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy. While intensities from a few isotopes obtained from such measurements have traditionally been used pairwise, the approach in this work is to simultaneously analyze correlations between all available isotopes, using multivariate analysis techniques. Based on this approach, a methodology for inferring burnup, cooling time, and initial fissile content of PWR fuels using passive gamma-ray spectroscopy data has been investigated. PWR nuclear fuels, of UOX and MOX type, and their gamma-ray emissions, were simulated using the Monte Carlo code Serpent. Data comprising relative isotope activities was analyzed with decision trees and support vector machines, for predicting fuel parameters and their associated uncertainties. From this work it may be concluded that up to a cooling time of twenty years, the 95% prediction intervals of burnup, cooling time and initial fissile content could be inferred to within approximately 7 MWd/kgHM, 8 months, and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. An attempt aiming to estimate the plutonium content in spent UOX fuel, using the developed multivariate analysis model, is also presented. The results for Pu mass estimation are promising and call for further studies.

Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Sabo, John L

2010-12-31

Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web"). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

Oral and Hand Movement Speeds are Associated with Expressive Language Ability in Children with Speech Sound Disorder

PubMed Central

Peter, Beate

2013-01-01

This study tested the hypothesis that children with speech sound disorder have generalized slowed motor speeds. It evaluated associations among oral and hand motor speeds and measures of speech (articulation and phonology) and language (receptive vocabulary, sentence comprehension, sentence imitation), in 11 children with moderate to severe SSD and 11 controls. Syllable durations from a syllable repetition task served as an estimate of maximal oral movement speed. In two imitation tasks, nonwords and clapped rhythms, unstressed vowel durations and quarter-note clap intervals served as estimates of oral and hand movement speed, respectively. Syllable durations were significantly correlated with vowel durations and hand clap intervals. Sentence imitation was correlated with all three timed movement measures. Clustering on syllable repetition durations produced three clusters that also differed in sentence imitation scores. Results are consistent with limited movement speeds across motor systems and SSD subtypes defined by motor speeds as a corollary of expressive language abilities. PMID:22411590

Relationship Between Auditory Context and Visual Distance Perception: Effect of Musical Expertise in the Ability to Translate Reverberation Cues Into Room-Size Perception.

PubMed

Etchemendy, Pablo E; Spiousas, Ignacio; Vergara, Ramiro

2018-01-01

In a recently published work by our group [ Scientific Reports, 7, 7189 (2017)], we performed experiments of visual distance perception in two dark rooms with extremely different reverberation times: one anechoic ( T ∼ 0.12 s) and the other reverberant ( T ∼ 4 s). The perceived distance of the targets was systematically greater in the reverberant room when contrasted to the anechoic chamber. Participants also provided auditorily perceived room-size ratings which were greater for the reverberant room. Our hypothesis was that distance estimates are affected by room size, resulting in farther responses for the room perceived larger. Of much importance to the task was the subjects' ability to infer room size from reverberation. In this article, we report a postanalysis showing that participants having musical expertise were better able to extract and translate reverberation cues into room-size information than nonmusicians. However, the degree to which musical expertise affects visual distance estimates remains unclear.

Advances and applications of occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Larissa; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Nichols, James D.

2013-01-01

Summary: The past decade has seen an explosion in the development and application of models aimed at estimating species occurrence and occupancy dynamics while accounting for possible non-detection or species misidentification. We discuss some recent occupancy estimation methods and the biological systems that motivated their development. Collectively, these models offer tremendous flexibility, but simultaneously place added demands on the investigator. Unlike many mark–recapture scenarios, investigators utilizing occupancy models have the ability, and responsibility, to define their sample units (i.e. sites), replicate sampling occasions, time period over which species occurrence is assumed to be static and even the criteria that constitute ‘detection’ of a target species. Subsequent biological inference and interpretation of model parameters depend on these definitions and the ability to meet model assumptions. We demonstrate the relevance of these definitions by highlighting applications from a single biological system (an amphibian–pathogen system) and discuss situations where the use of occupancy models has been criticized. Finally, we use these applications to suggest future research and model development.

Oral and hand movement speeds are associated with expressive language ability in children with speech sound disorder.

PubMed

Peter, Beate

2012-12-01

This study tested the hypothesis that children with speech sound disorder have generalized slowed motor speeds. It evaluated associations among oral and hand motor speeds and measures of speech (articulation and phonology) and language (receptive vocabulary, sentence comprehension, sentence imitation), in 11 children with moderate to severe SSD and 11 controls. Syllable durations from a syllable repetition task served as an estimate of maximal oral movement speed. In two imitation tasks, nonwords and clapped rhythms, unstressed vowel durations and quarter-note clap intervals served as estimates of oral and hand movement speed, respectively. Syllable durations were significantly correlated with vowel durations and hand clap intervals. Sentence imitation was correlated with all three timed movement measures. Clustering on syllable repetition durations produced three clusters that also differed in sentence imitation scores. Results are consistent with limited movement speeds across motor systems and SSD subtypes defined by motor speeds as a corollary of expressive language abilities.

Nonparametric estimation of groundwater residence time distributions: What can environmental tracer data tell us about groundwater residence time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCallum, James L.; Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Cook, Peter. G.

2014-03-01

Residence time distributions (RTDs) have been used extensively for quantifying flow and transport in subsurface hydrology. In geochemical approaches, environmental tracer concentrations are used in conjunction with simple lumped parameter models (LPMs). Conversely, numerical simulation techniques require large amounts of parameterization and estimated RTDs are certainly limited by associated uncertainties. In this study, we apply a nonparametric deconvolution approach to estimate RTDs using environmental tracer concentrations. The model is based only on the assumption that flow is steady enough that the observed concentrations are well approximated by linear superposition of the input concentrations with the RTD; that is, the convolution integral holds. Even with large amounts of environmental tracer concentration data, the entire shape of an RTD remains highly nonunique. However, accurate estimates of mean ages and in some cases prediction of young portions of the RTD may be possible. The most useful type of data was found to be the use of a time series of tritium. This was due to the sharp variations in atmospheric concentrations and a short half-life. Conversely, the use of CFC compounds with smoothly varying atmospheric concentrations was more prone to nonuniqueness. This work highlights the benefits and limitations of using environmental tracer data to estimate whole RTDs with either LPMs or through numerical simulation. However, the ability of the nonparametric approach developed here to correct for mixing biases in mean ages appears promising.

The first step toward genetic selection for host tolerance to infectious pathogens: obtaining the tolerance phenotype through group estimates

PubMed Central

Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.; Villanueva, Beatriz; Kyriazakis, Ilias

2012-01-01

Reliable phenotypes are paramount for meaningful quantification of genetic variation and for estimating individual breeding values on which genetic selection is based. In this paper, we assert that genetic improvement of host tolerance to disease, although desirable, may be first of all handicapped by the ability to obtain unbiased tolerance estimates at a phenotypic level. In contrast to resistance, which can be inferred by appropriate measures of within host pathogen burden, tolerance is more difficult to quantify as it refers to change in performance with respect to changes in pathogen burden. For this reason, tolerance phenotypes have only been specified at the level of a group of individuals, where such phenotypes can be estimated using regression analysis. However, few stsudies have raised the potential bias in these estimates resulting from confounding effects between resistance and tolerance. Using a simulation approach, we demonstrate (i) how these group tolerance estimates depend on within group variation and co-variation in resistance, tolerance, and vigor (performance in a pathogen free environment); and (ii) how tolerance estimates are affected by changes in pathogen virulence over the time course of infection and by the timing of measurements. We found that in order to obtain reliable group tolerance estimates, it is important to account for individual variation in vigor, if present, and that all individuals are at the same stage of infection when measurements are taken. The latter requirement makes estimation of tolerance based on cross-sectional field data challenging, as individuals become infected at different time points and the individual onset of infection is unknown. Repeated individual measurements of within host pathogen burden and performance would not only be valuable for inferring the infection status of individuals in field conditions, but would also provide tolerance estimates that capture the entire time course of infection. PMID:23412990

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

PubMed Central

Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

2016-01-01

Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

Revised motion estimation algorithm for PROPELLER MRI.

PubMed

Pipe, James G; Gibbs, Wende N; Li, Zhiqiang; Karis, John P; Schar, Michael; Zwart, Nicholas R

2014-08-01

To introduce a new algorithm for estimating data shifts (used for both rotation and translation estimates) for motion-corrected PROPELLER MRI. The method estimates shifts for all blades jointly, emphasizing blade-pair correlations that are both strong and more robust to noise. The heads of three volunteers were scanned using a PROPELLER acquisition while they exhibited various amounts of motion. All data were reconstructed twice, using motion estimates from the original and new algorithm. Two radiologists independently and blindly compared 216 image pairs from these scans, ranking the left image as substantially better or worse than, slightly better or worse than, or equivalent to the right image. In the aggregate of 432 scores, the new method was judged substantially better than the old method 11 times, and was never judged substantially worse. The new algorithm compared favorably with the old in its ability to estimate bulk motion in a limited study of volunteer motion. A larger study of patients is planned for future work. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Technical note: Mining data from on-farm electronic equipment to identify the time dairy cows spend away from the pen.

PubMed

Thompson, A J; Weary, D M; von Keyserlingk, M A G

2017-05-01

The electronic equipment used on farms can be creatively co-opted to collect data for which it was not originally designed. In the current study, we describe 2 novel algorithms that harvest data from electronic feeding equipment and data loggers used to record standing and lying behavior, to estimate the time that dairy cows spend away from their pen to be milked. Our 2 objectives were to (1) measure the ability of the first algorithm to estimate the time cows spend away from the pen as a group and (2) determine the capability of a second algorithm to estimate the time it takes for individual cows to return to their pen after being milked. To achieve these objectives, we conducted 2 separate experiments: first, to estimate group time away, the feeding behavior of 1 pen of 20 Holstein cows was monitored electronically for 1 mo; second, to measure individual latency to return to the pen, feeding and lying behavior of 12 healthy Holstein cows was monitored electronically from parturition to 21 d in milk. For both experiments, we monitored the time each individual cow exited the pen before each milking and when she returned to the pen after milking using video recordings. Estimates generated by our algorithms were then compared with the times captured from the video recordings. Our first algorithm provided reliable pen-based estimates for the minimum time cows spent away from the pen to be milked in the morning [coefficient of determination (R 2 ) = 0.92] and afternoon (R 2 = 0.96). The second algorithm was able to estimate of the time it took for individual cows to return to the pen after being milked in the morning (R 2 = 0.98), but less so in the afternoon (R 2 = 0.67). This study illustrates how data from electronic systems used to assess feeding and lying behavior can be mined to estimate novel measures. New work is now required to improve the estimates of our algorithm for individuals, for example by adding data from other electronic monitoring systems on the farm. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

Prediction of industrial tomato hybrids from agronomic traits and ISSR molecular markers.

PubMed

Figueiredo, A S T; Resende, J T V; Faria, M V; Da-Silva, P R; Fagundes, B S; Morales, R G F

2016-05-13

Heterosis is a highly relevant phenomenon in plant breeding. This condition is usually established in hybrids derived from crosses of highly divergent parents. The success of a breeder in obtaining heterosis is directly related to the correct identification of genetically contrasting parents. Currently, the diallel cross is the most commonly used methodology to detect contrasting parents; however, it is a time- and cost-consuming procedure. Therefore, new tools capable of performing this task quickly and accurately are required. Thus, the purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic divergence in industrial tomato lines, based on agronomic traits, and to compare with estimates obtained using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) molecular markers. The genetic divergence among 10 industrial tomato lines, based on nine morphological characters and 12 ISSR primers was analyzed. For data analysis, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the genetic dissimilarity measures estimated by Mahalanobis distance and Jaccard's coefficient of genetic dissimilarity from the heterosis estimates, combining ability, and means of important traits of industrial tomato. The ISSR markers efficiently detected contrasting parents for hybrid production in tomato. Parent RVTD-08 was indicated as the most divergent, both by molecular and morphological markers, that positively contributed to increased heterosis and by the specific combining ability in the crosses in which it participated. The genetic dissimilarity estimated by ISSR molecular markers aided the identification of the best hybrids of the experiment in terms of total fruit yield, pulp yield, and soluble solids content.

An exploration of parents' preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Hendry, Gordon J; Turner, Debbie E; Gardner-Medwin, Janet; Lorgelly, Paula K; Woodburn, James

2014-02-06

An increased awareness of patients' and parents' care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents' preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents' monetary valuation of health and service improvements. Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents' preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents' estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05. In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents' preferences.

An exploration of parents’ preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background An increased awareness of patients’ and parents’ care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents’ preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Methods A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents’ monetary valuation of health and service improvements. Results Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents’ preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents’ estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05. Conclusions In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents’ preferences. PMID:24502508

Agreement and Reliability of Tinnitus Loudness Matching and Pitch Likeness Rating

PubMed Central

Hoare, Derek J.; Edmondson-Jones, Mark; Gander, Phillip E.; Hall, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

The ability to reproducibly match tinnitus loudness and pitch is important to research and clinical management. Here we examine agreement and reliability of tinnitus loudness matching and pitch likeness ratings when using a computer-based method to measure the tinnitus spectrum and estimate a dominant tinnitus pitch, using tonal or narrowband sounds. Group level data indicated a significant effect of time between test session 1 and 2 for loudness matching, likely procedural or perceptual learning, which needs to be accounted in study design. Pitch likeness rating across multiple frequencies appeared inherently more variable and with no systematic effect of time. Dominant pitch estimates reached a level of clinical acceptability when sessions were spaced two weeks apart. However when dominant tinnitus pitch assessments were separated by three months, acceptable agreement was achieved only for group mean data, not for individual estimates. This has implications for prescription of some sound-based interventions that rely on accurate measures of individual dominant tinnitus pitch. PMID:25478690

Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

PubMed

Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

2018-01-22

Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

Quantitative Prediction of Stone Fragility From Routine Dual Energy CT: Ex vivo proof of Feasibility.

PubMed

Ferrero, Andrea; Montoya, Juan C; Vaughan, Lisa E; Huang, Alice E; McKeag, Ian O; Enders, Felicity T; Williams, James C; McCollough, Cynthia H

2016-12-01

Previous studies have demonstrated a qualitative relationship between stone fragility and internal stone morphology. The goal of this study was to quantify morphologic features from dual-energy computed tomography (CT) images and assess their relationship to stone fragility. Thirty-three calcified urinary stones were scanned with micro-CT. Next, they were placed within torso-shaped water phantoms and scanned with the dual-energy CT stone composition protocol in routine use at our institution. Mixed low- and high-energy images were used to measure volume, surface roughness, and 12 metrics describing internal morphology for each stone. The ratios of low- to high-energy CT numbers were also measured. Subsequent to imaging, stone fragility was measured by disintegrating each stone in a controlled ex vivo experiment using an ultrasonic lithotripter and recording the time to comminution. A multivariable linear regression model was developed to predict time to comminution. The average stone volume was 300 mm 3 (range: 134-674 mm 3 ). The average comminution time measured ex vivo was 32 seconds (range: 7-115 seconds). Stone volume, dual-energy CT number ratio, and surface roughness were found to have the best combined predictive ability to estimate comminution time (adjusted R 2  = 0.58). The predictive ability of mixed dual-energy CT images, without use of the dual-energy CT number ratio, to estimate comminution time was slightly inferior, with an adjusted R 2 of 0.54. Dual-energy CT number ratios, volume, and morphologic metrics may provide a method for predicting stone fragility, as measured by time to comminution from ultrasonic lithotripsy. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative prediction of stone fragility from routine single and dual energy CT: proof of feasibility

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Andrea; Montoya, Juan C.; Vaughan, Lisa E.; Huang, Alice E.; McKeag, Ian O.; Enders, Felicity T.; Williams, James C.; McCollough, Cynthia H.

2016-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Previous studies have demonstrated a qualitative relationship between stone fragility and internal stone morphology. The goal of this study was to quantify morphological features from dual-energy CT images and assess their relationship to stone fragility. Materials and Methods Thirty-three calcified urinary stones were scanned with micro CT. Next, they were placed within torso-shaped water phantoms and scanned with the dual-energy CT stone composition protocol in routine use at our institution. Mixed low-and high-energy images were used to measure volume, surface roughness, and 12 metrics describing internal morphology for each stone. The ratios of low- to high-energy CT numbers were also measured. Subsequent to imaging, stone fragility was measured by disintegrating each stone in a controlled ex vivo experiment using an ultrasonic lithotripter and recording the time to comminution. A multivariable linear regression model was developed to predict time to comminution. Results The average stone volume was 300 mm3 (range 134–674 mm3). The average comminution time measured ex vivo was 32 s (range 7–115 s). Stone volume, dual-energy CT number ratio and surface roughness were found to have the best combined predictive ability to estimate comminution time (adjusted R2= 0.58). The predictive ability of mixed dual-energy CT images, without use of the dual-energy CT number ratio, to estimate comminution time was slightly inferior, with an adjusted R2 of 0.54. Conclusion Dual-energy CT number ratios, volume, and morphological metrics may provide a method for predicting stone fragility, as measured by time to comminution from ultrasonic lithotripsy. PMID:27717761

The Sensitivity of Measures of Unwanted and Unintended Pregnancy Using Retrospective and Prospective Reporting: Evidence from Malawi

PubMed Central

Sennott, Christie

2015-01-01

A thorough understanding of the health implications of unwanted and unintended pregnancies is constrained by our ability to accurately identify them. Commonly used techniques for measuring such pregnancies are subject to two main sources of error: the ex post revision of preferences after a pregnancy and the difficulty of identifying preferences at the time of conception. This study examines the implications of retrospective and prospective measurement approaches, which are vulnerable to different sources of error, on estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancies. We use eight waves of closely-spaced panel data from young women in southern Malawi to generate estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancies based on fertility preferences measured at various points in time. We then compare estimates using traditional retrospective and prospective approaches to estimates obtained when fertility preferences are measured prospectively within months of conception. The 1,062 young Malawian women in the sample frequently changed their fertility preferences. The retrospective measures slightly underestimated unwanted and unintended pregnancies compared to the time-varying prospective approach; in contrast the fixed prospective measures overestimated them. Nonetheless, most estimates were similar in aggregate, suggesting that frequent changes in fertility preferences need not lead to dramatically different estimates of unwanted and unintended pregnancy. Greater disagreement among measures emerged when classifying individual pregnancies. Carefully designed retrospective measures are not necessarily more problematic for measuring unintended and unwanted fertility than are more expensive fixed prospective ones. PMID:25636647

Investigating the Impact of Item Parameter Drift for Item Response Theory Models with Mixture Distributions.

PubMed

Park, Yoon Soo; Lee, Young-Sun; Xing, Kuan

2016-01-01

This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD) on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results also showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effects on item parameters and examinee ability.

Investigating the Impact of Item Parameter Drift for Item Response Theory Models with Mixture Distributions

PubMed Central

Park, Yoon Soo; Lee, Young-Sun; Xing, Kuan

2016-01-01

This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD) on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results also showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effects on item parameters and examinee ability. PMID:26941699

Rotation otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (ROTTR) hypothesis: a new hypothesis to explain neurovestibular spaceflight adaptation.

PubMed

Merfeld, Daniel M

2003-01-01

Normally, the nervous system must process ambiguous graviceptor (e.g., otolith) cues to estimate tilt and translation. The neural processes that help perform these estimation processes must adapt upon exposure to weightlessness and readapt upon return to Earth. In this paper we present a review of evidence supporting a new hypothesis that explains some aspects of these adaptive processes. This hypothesis, which we label the rotation otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (ROTTR) hypothesis, suggests that the neural processes resulting in spaceflight adaptation include deterioration in the ability of the nervous system to use rotational cues to help accurately estimate the relative orientation of gravity ("tilt"). Changes in the ability to estimate gravity then also influence the ability of the nervous system to estimate linear acceleration ("translation"). We explicitly hypothesize that such changes in the ability to estimate "tilt" and "translation" will be measurable upon return to Earth and will, at least partially, explain the disorientation experienced when astronauts return to Earth. In this paper, we present the details and implications of ROTTR, review data related to ROTTR, and discuss the relationship of ROTTR to the influential otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation (OTTR) hypothesis as well as discuss the distinct differences between ROTTR and OTTR.

Ability Self-Estimates and Self-Efficacy: Meaningfully Distinct?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bubany, Shawn T.; Hansen, Jo-Ida C.

2010-01-01

Conceptual differences between self-efficacy and ability self-estimate scores, used in vocational psychology and career counseling, were examined with confirmatory factor analysis, discriminate relations, and reliability analysis. Results suggest that empirical differences may be due to measurement error or scale content, rather than due to the…

Genome wide selection in Citrus breeding.

PubMed

Gois, I B; Borém, A; Cristofani-Yaly, M; de Resende, M D V; Azevedo, C F; Bastianel, M; Novelli, V M; Machado, M A

2016-10-17

Genome wide selection (GWS) is essential for the genetic improvement of perennial species such as Citrus because of its ability to increase gain per unit time and to enable the efficient selection of characteristics with low heritability. This study assessed GWS efficiency in a population of Citrus and compared it with selection based on phenotypic data. A total of 180 individual trees from a cross between Pera sweet orange (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) and Murcott tangor (Citrus sinensis Osbeck x Citrus reticulata Blanco) were evaluated for 10 characteristics related to fruit quality. The hybrids were genotyped using 5287 DArT_seq TM (diversity arrays technology) molecular markers and their effects on phenotypes were predicted using the random regression - best linear unbiased predictor (rr-BLUP) method. The predictive ability, prediction bias, and accuracy of GWS were estimated to verify its effectiveness for phenotype prediction. The proportion of genetic variance explained by the markers was also computed. The heritability of the traits, as determined by markers, was 16-28%. The predictive ability of these markers ranged from 0.53 to 0.64, and the regression coefficients between predicted and observed phenotypes were close to unity. Over 35% of the genetic variance was accounted for by the markers. Accuracy estimates with GWS were lower than those obtained by phenotypic analysis; however, GWS was superior in terms of genetic gain per unit time. Thus, GWS may be useful for Citrus breeding as it can predict phenotypes early and accurately, and reduce the length of the selection cycle. This study demonstrates the feasibility of genomic selection in Citrus.

Hierarchical State-Space Estimation of Leatherback Turtle Navigation Ability

PubMed Central

Mills Flemming, Joanna; Jonsen, Ian D.; Field, Christopher A.

2010-01-01

Remotely sensed tracking technology has revealed remarkable migration patterns that were previously unknown; however, models to optimally use such data have developed more slowly. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayes state-space framework that allows us to combine tracking data from a collection of animals and make inferences at both individual and broader levels. We formulate models that allow the navigation ability of animals to be estimated and demonstrate how information can be combined over many animals to allow improved estimation. We also show how formal hypothesis testing regarding navigation ability can easily be accomplished in this framework. Using Argos satellite tracking data from 14 leatherback turtles, 7 males and 7 females, during their southward migration from Nova Scotia, Canada, we find that the circle of confusion (the radius around an animal's location within which it is unable to determine its location precisely) is approximately 96 km. This estimate suggests that the turtles' navigation does not need to be highly accurate, especially if they are able to use more reliable cues as they near their destination. Moreover, for the 14 turtles examined, there is little evidence to suggest that male and female navigation abilities differ. Because of the minimal assumptions made about the movement process, our approach can be used to estimate and compare navigation ability for many migratory species that are able to carry electronic tracking devices. PMID:21203382

Economic analysis of the intangible impacts of informal care for people with Alzheimer's disease and other mental disorders.

PubMed

Gervès, Chloé; Bellanger, Martine Marie; Ankri, Joël

2013-01-01

Valuation of the intangible impacts of informal care remains a great challenge for economic evaluation, especially in the framework of care recipients with cognitive impairment. Our main objective was to explore the influence of intangible impacts of caring on both informal caregivers' ability to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to be replaced and their WTP value. We mapped characteristics that influence ability or inability to estimate WTP by using a multiple correspondence analysis. We ran a bivariate probit model with sample selection to further analyze the caregivers' WTP value conditional on their ability to estimate their WTP. A distinction exists between the opportunity costs of the caring dimension and those of the intangible costs and benefits of caring. Informal caregivers' ability to estimate WTP is negatively influenced by both intangible benefits from caring (P < 0.001) and negative intangible impacts of caring (P < 0.05). Caregivers' WTP value is negatively associated with positive intangible impacts of informal care (P < 0.01). Informal caregivers' WTP and their ability to estimate WTP are both influenced by intangible burden and benefit of caring. These results call into question the relevance of a hypothetical generalized financial compensation system as the optimal way to motivate caregivers to continue providing care. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a method estimating real-time individual lysine requirements in two lines of growing-finishing pigs.

PubMed

Cloutier, L; Pomar, C; Létourneau Montminy, M P; Bernier, J F; Pomar, J

2015-04-01

The implementation of precision feeding in growing-finishing facilities requires accurate estimates of the animals' nutrient requirements. The objectives of the current study was to validate a method for estimating the real-time individual standardized ileal digestible (SID) lysine (Lys) requirements of growing-finishing pigs and the ability of this method to estimate the Lys requirements of pigs with different feed intake and growth patterns. Seventy-five pigs from a terminal cross and 72 pigs from a maternal cross were used in two 28-day experimental phases beginning at 25.8 (±2.5) and 73.3 (±5.2) kg BW, respectively. Treatments were randomly assigned to pigs within each experimental phase according to a 2×4 factorial design in which the two genetic lines and four dietary SID Lys levels (70%, 85%, 100% and 115% of the requirements estimated by the factorial method developed for precision feeding) were the main factors. Individual pigs' Lys requirements were estimated daily using a factorial approach based on their feed intake, BW and weight gain patterns. From 25 to 50 kg BW, this method slightly underestimated the pigs' SID Lys requirements, given that maximum protein deposition and weight gain were achieved at 115% of SID Lys requirements. However, the best gain-to-feed ratio (G : F) was obtained at a level of 85% or more of the estimated Lys requirement. From 70 to 100 kg, the method adequately estimated the pigs' individual requirements, given that maximum performance was achieved at 100% of Lys requirements. Terminal line pigs ate more (P=0.04) during the first experimental phase and tended to eat more (P=0.10) during the second phase than the maternal line pigs but both genetic lines had similar ADG and protein deposition rates during the two phases. The factorial method used in this study to estimate individual daily SID Lys requirements was able to accommodate the small genetic differences in feed intake, and it was concluded that this method can be used in precision feeding systems without adjustments. However, the method's ability to accommodate large genetic differences in feed intake and protein deposition patterns needs to be studied further.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a demonstration of equifinality. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error combined with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

A real time neural net estimator of fatigue life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troudet, T.; Merrill, W.

1990-01-01

A neural net architecture is proposed to estimate, in real-time, the fatigue life of mechanical components, as part of the Intelligent Control System for Reusable Rocket Engines. Arbitrary component loading values were used as input to train a two hidden-layer feedforward neural net to estimate component fatigue damage. The ability of the net to learn, based on a local strain approach, the mapping between load sequence and fatigue damage has been demonstrated for a uniaxial specimen. Because of its demonstrated performance, the neural computation may be extended to complex cases where the loads are biaxial or triaxial, and the geometry of the component is complex (e.g., turbopump blades). The generality of the approach is such that load/damage mappings can be directly extracted from experimental data without requiring any knowledge of the stress/strain profile of the component. In addition, the parallel network architecture allows real-time life calculations even for high frequency vibrations. Owing to its distributed nature, the neural implementation will be robust and reliable, enabling its use in hostile environments such as rocket engines. This neural net estimator of fatigue life is seen as the enabling technology to achieve component life prognosis, and therefore would be an important part of life extending control for reusable rocket engines.

Constrained inference in mixed-effects models for longitudinal data with application to hearing loss.

PubMed

Davidov, Ori; Rosen, Sophia

2011-04-01

In medical studies, endpoints are often measured for each patient longitudinally. The mixed-effects model has been a useful tool for the analysis of such data. There are situations in which the parameters of the model are subject to some restrictions or constraints. For example, in hearing loss studies, we expect hearing to deteriorate with time. This means that hearing thresholds which reflect hearing acuity will, on average, increase over time. Therefore, the regression coefficients associated with the mean effect of time on hearing ability will be constrained. Such constraints should be accounted for in the analysis. We propose maximum likelihood estimation procedures, based on the expectation-conditional maximization either algorithm, to estimate the parameters of the model while accounting for the constraints on them. The proposed methods improve, in terms of mean square error, on the unconstrained estimators. In some settings, the improvement may be substantial. Hypotheses testing procedures that incorporate the constraints are developed. Specifically, likelihood ratio, Wald, and score tests are proposed and investigated. Their empirical significance levels and power are studied using simulations. It is shown that incorporating the constraints improves the mean squared error of the estimates and the power of the tests. These improvements may be substantial. The methodology is used to analyze a hearing loss study.

Perceived financial incentives, HMO market penetration, and physicians' practice styles and satisfaction.

PubMed

Hadley, J; Mitchell, J M; Sulmasy, D P; Bloche, M G

1999-04-01

To estimate the effects of physicians' personal financial incentives and other measures of involvement with HMOs on three measures of satisfaction and practice style: overall practice satisfaction, the extent to which prior expectations about professional autonomy and the ability to practice good-quality medicine are met, and several specific measures of practice style. A telephone survey conducted in 1997 of 1,549 physicians who were located in the 75 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 1991. Eligible physicians were under age 52, had between 8 and 17 years of post-residency practice experience, and spent at least 20 hours per week in patient care. The response rate was 74 percent. Multivariate binomial and multinomial ordered logistic regression models were estimated. Independent variables included physicians' self-reported financial incentives, measured by the extent to which their overall financial arrangements created an incentive to either reduce or increase services to patients, the level of HMO penetration in the market, employment setting, medical specialty, exposure to managed care while in medical training, and selected personal characteristics. About 15 percent of survey respondents reported a moderate or strong incentive to reduce services; 70 percent reported a neutral incentive; and 15 percent reported an incentive to increase services. Compared to physicians with a neutral incentive, physicians with an incentive to reduce services were from 1.5 to 3.5 times more likely to be very dissatisfied with their practices and were 0.2 to 0.5 times as likely to report that their expectations regarding professional autonomy and ability to practice good-quality medicine were met. They were also 0.2 to 0.6 times as likely to report having the freedom to care for patients the way they would like along several specific measures of practice style, such as sufficient time with patients, ability to hospitalize, ability to order tests and procedures, and ability to make referrals. These effects were generally reinforced by practicing in an area with a high level of HMO penetration and were offset to some extent by having had exposure to HMOs and the practice of cost-effective medicine while in medical training. Although financial incentives to reduce services are not widespread, there is a legitimate reason to be concerned about possible adverse affects on the quality of care. More research is needed to investigate directly whether changes in patients' health are affected by their physicians' financial incentives.

Perceived financial incentives, HMO market penetration, and physicians' practice styles and satisfaction.

PubMed Central

Hadley, J; Mitchell, J M; Sulmasy, D P; Bloche, M G

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of physicians' personal financial incentives and other measures of involvement with HMOs on three measures of satisfaction and practice style: overall practice satisfaction, the extent to which prior expectations about professional autonomy and the ability to practice good-quality medicine are met, and several specific measures of practice style. DATA SOURCES: A telephone survey conducted in 1997 of 1,549 physicians who were located in the 75 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 1991. Eligible physicians were under age 52, had between 8 and 17 years of post-residency practice experience, and spent at least 20 hours per week in patient care. The response rate was 74 percent. STUDY DESIGN: Multivariate binomial and multinomial ordered logistic regression models were estimated. Independent variables included physicians' self-reported financial incentives, measured by the extent to which their overall financial arrangements created an incentive to either reduce or increase services to patients, the level of HMO penetration in the market, employment setting, medical specialty, exposure to managed care while in medical training, and selected personal characteristics. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: About 15 percent of survey respondents reported a moderate or strong incentive to reduce services; 70 percent reported a neutral incentive; and 15 percent reported an incentive to increase services. Compared to physicians with a neutral incentive, physicians with an incentive to reduce services were from 1.5 to 3.5 times more likely to be very dissatisfied with their practices and were 0.2 to 0.5 times as likely to report that their expectations regarding professional autonomy and ability to practice good-quality medicine were met. They were also 0.2 to 0.6 times as likely to report having the freedom to care for patients the way they would like along several specific measures of practice style, such as sufficient time with patients, ability to hospitalize, ability to order tests and procedures, and ability to make referrals. These effects were generally reinforced by practicing in an area with a high level of HMO penetration and were offset to some extent by having had exposure to HMOs and the practice of cost-effective medicine while in medical training. CONCLUSIONS: Although financial incentives to reduce services are not widespread, there is a legitimate reason to be concerned about possible adverse affects on the quality of care. More research is needed to investigate directly whether changes in patients' health are affected by their physicians' financial incentives. PMID:10199677

Being on sick leave due to heart failure: Encounters with social insurance officers and associations with sociodemographic factors and self-estimated ability to return to work.

PubMed

Nordgren, Lena; Söderlund, Anne

2016-04-01

Little is known about sick leave and the ability to return to work (RTW) for people with heart failure (HF). Previous research findings raise questions about the significance of encounters with social insurance officers (SIOs) and sociodemographics in people sick-listed due to HF. To investigate how people on sick leave due to HF experience encounters with SIOs and associations between sociodemographic factors, experiences of positive/negative encounters with SIOs, and self-estimated ability to RTW. This was a population-based study with a cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of 590 sick-listed people with HF in Sweden. A register-based investigation supplemented with a postal survey questionnaire was conducted. Bivariate correlations and logistic regression analysis was used to test associations between sociodemographic factors, positive and negative encounters, and self-estimated ability to RTW. People with low income were more likely to receive sickness compensation. A majority of the responders experienced encounters with SIOs as positive. Being married was significantly associated with positive encounters. Having a low income was related to negative encounters. More than a third of the responders agreed that positive encounters with SIOs facilitated self-estimated ability to RTW. High income was strongly associated with the impact of positive encounters on self-estimated ability to RTW. Encounters between SIOs and people on sick leave due to HF need to be characterized by a person-centred approach including confidence and trust. People with low income need special attention. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Estimation of Pulse Transit Time as a Function of Blood Pressure Using a Nonlinear Arterial Tube-Load Model.

PubMed

Gao, Mingwu; Cheng, Hao-Min; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Chen, Chen-Huan; Olivier, Nicholas Bari; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2017-07-01

pulse transit time (PTT) varies with blood pressure (BP) throughout the cardiac cycle, yet, because of wave reflection, only one PTT value at the diastolic BP level is conventionally estimated from proximal and distal BP waveforms. The objective was to establish a technique to estimate multiple PTT values at different BP levels in the cardiac cycle. a technique was developed for estimating PTT as a function of BP (to indicate the PTT value for every BP level) from proximal and distal BP waveforms. First, a mathematical transformation from one waveform to the other is defined in terms of the parameters of a nonlinear arterial tube-load model accounting for BP-dependent arterial compliance and wave reflection. Then, the parameters are estimated by optimally fitting the waveforms to each other via the model-based transformation. Finally, PTT as a function of BP is specified by the parameters. The technique was assessed in animals and patients in several ways including the ability of its estimated PTT-BP function to serve as a subject-specific curve for calibrating PTT to BP. the calibration curve derived by the technique during a baseline period yielded bias and precision errors in mean BP of 5.1 ± 0.9 and 6.6 ± 1.0 mmHg, respectively, during hemodynamic interventions that varied mean BP widely. the new technique may permit, for the first time, estimation of PTT values throughout the cardiac cycle from proximal and distal waveforms. the technique could potentially be applied to improve arterial stiffness monitoring and help realize cuff-less BP monitoring.

Soft sensor for real-time cement fineness estimation.

PubMed

Stanišić, Darko; Jorgovanović, Nikola; Popov, Nikola; Čongradac, Velimir

2015-03-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of soft sensors to estimate cement fineness. Soft sensors are mathematical models that use available data to provide real-time information on process variables when the information, for whatever reason, is not available by direct measurement. In this application, soft sensors are used to provide information on process variable normally provided by off-line laboratory tests performed at large time intervals. Cement fineness is one of the crucial parameters that define the quality of produced cement. Providing real-time information on cement fineness using soft sensors can overcome limitations and problems that originate from a lack of information between two laboratory tests. The model inputs were selected from candidate process variables using an information theoretic approach. Models based on multi-layer perceptrons were developed, and their ability to estimate cement fineness of laboratory samples was analyzed. Models that had the best performance, and capacity to adopt changes in the cement grinding circuit were selected to implement soft sensors. Soft sensors were tested using data from a continuous cement production to demonstrate their use in real-time fineness estimation. Their performance was highly satisfactory, and the sensors proved to be capable of providing valuable information on cement grinding circuit performance. After successful off-line tests, soft sensors were implemented and installed in the control room of a cement factory. Results on the site confirm results obtained by tests conducted during soft sensor development. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Estimation of Latent Ability in Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuster, Christof; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2011-01-01

Because of response disturbances such as guessing, cheating, or carelessness, item response models often can only approximate the "true" individual response probabilities. As a consequence, maximum-likelihood estimates of ability will be biased. Typically, the nature and extent to which response disturbances are present is unknown, and, therefore,…

Processing speed, attention, and working memory after treatment for medulloblastoma: an international, prospective, and longitudinal study.

PubMed

Palmer, Shawna L; Armstrong, Carol; Onar-Thomas, Arzu; Wu, Shengjie; Wallace, Dana; Bonner, Melanie J; Schreiber, Jane; Swain, Michelle; Chapieski, Lynn; Mabbott, Donald; Knight, Sarah; Boyle, Robyn; Gajjar, Amar

2013-10-01

The current study prospectively examined processing speed (PS), broad attention (BA), and working memory (WM) ability of patients diagnosed with medulloblastoma over a 5-year period. The study included 126 patients, ages 3 to 21 years at diagnosis, enrolled onto a collaborative protocol for medulloblastoma. Patients were treated with postsurgical risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation (n = 36 high risk [HR]; n = 90 average risk) followed by four cycles of high-dose chemotherapy with stem-cell support. Patients completed 509 neuropsychological evaluations using the Woodcock-Johnson Tests of Cognitive Abilities Third Edition (median of three observations per patient). Linear mixed effects models revealed that younger age at diagnosis, HR classification, and higher baseline scores were significantly associated with poorer outcomes in PS. Patients treated as HR and those with higher baseline scores are estimated to have less favorable outcomes in WM and BA over time. Parent education and marital status were significantly associated with BA and WM baseline scores but not change over time. Of the three key domains, PS was estimated to have the lowest scores at 5 years after diagnosis. Identifying cognitive domains most vulnerable to decline should guide researchers who are aiming to develop efficacious cognitive intervention and rehabilitation programs, thereby improving the quality of survivorship for the pediatric medulloblastoma population.

Pre-natal and post-natal growth trajectories and childhood cognitive ability and mental health.

PubMed

Yang, Seungmi; Tilling, Kate; Martin, Richard; Davies, Neil; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Kramer, Michael S

2011-10-01

Most studies of the associations between pre-natal or post-natal growth and cognitive ability have been based on children with pathologically slow growth measured between two time points only, rather than children with normal growth trajectories estimated from multiple measures of growth. We investigated the associations of pre-natal and post-natal trajectories in both weight and length/height through the first 5 years of life with cognitive ability and mental health at 6.5 years of age among healthy children. Our study is based on 11 899 children who were born healthy at ≥37 completed weeks with birth weight ≥2500 g and had up to 13 measures of weight and length/height from birth to age 5 years and cognitive ability and behaviour measured at 6.5 years. Using a linear spline random-effects model with 2 knots at 3 and 12 months, we estimated growth trajectories for each child from birth to age 5 years in weight and length/height in four periods: gestational age-specific birth weight and length (pre-natal 'growth'), early infancy (0-3 months), late infancy (3-12 months) and early childhood (1-5 years). We used generalized estimating equations to estimate mean differences in IQ and mental health according to pre-natal and post-natal growth trajectory. IQ was measured using the Wechsler Abbreviated Scales of Intelligence, and mental health was assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. A 1 standard deviation (SD) in birth weight was positively associated with cognitive ability (0.82 IQ points, 95% CI: 0.54-1.10) after adjusting for confounders. For post-natal weight gain trajectories, a 1 SD faster weight gain was associated with an increase of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.42-1.11) IQ points for early infancy, 0.30 (95% CI: 0.02-0.58) points for late infancy, and 0.40 (95% CI: 0.04-0.76) for early childhood after adjusting for confounders and for earlier growth. For length/height trajectories, the magnitudes of increase in cognitive ability were similar to each other (~0.6 points) across the four periods. Pre-natal and infancy growth, but not early childhood growth, were associated with reduced externalising behaviours. Although the effect sizes are small and residual confounding cannot be excluded, our results suggest that among healthy children, faster growth from the pre-natal period through age 5 years is positively associated with cognitive ability, whereas faster growth in the pre-natal period and infancy is positively associated with mental health at early school age.

Modified microplate method for rapid and efficient estimation of siderophore produced by bacteria.

PubMed

Arora, Naveen Kumar; Verma, Maya

2017-12-01

In this study, siderophore production by various bacteria amongst the plant-growth-promoting rhizobacteria was quantified by a rapid and efficient method. In total, 23 siderophore-producing bacterial isolates/strains were taken to estimate their siderophore-producing ability by the standard method (chrome azurol sulphonate assay) as well as 96 well microplate method. Production of siderophore was estimated in percent siderophore unit by both the methods. It was observed that data obtained by both methods correlated positively with each other proving the correctness of microplate method. By the modified microplate method, siderophore production by several bacterial strains can be estimated both qualitatively and quantitatively at one go, saving time, chemicals, making it very less tedious, and also being cheaper in comparison with the method currently in use. The modified microtiter plate method as proposed here makes it far easier to screen the plant-growth-promoting character of plant-associated bacteria.

Longitudinal Brain Development of Numerical Skills in Typically Developing Children and Children with Developmental Dyscalculia.

PubMed

McCaskey, Ursina; von Aster, Michael; Maurer, Urs; Martin, Ernst; O'Gorman Tuura, Ruth; Kucian, Karin

2017-01-01

Developmental dyscalculia (DD) is a learning disability affecting the acquisition of numerical-arithmetical skills. Studies report persistent deficits in number processing and aberrant functional activation of the fronto-parietal numerical network in DD. However, the neural development of numerical abilities has been scarcely investigated. The present paper provides a first attempt to investigate behavioral and neural trajectories of numerical abilities longitudinally in typically developing (TD) and DD children. During a study period of 4 years, 28 children (8-11 years) were evaluated twice by means of neuropsychological tests and a numerical order fMRI paradigm. Over time, TD children improved in numerical abilities and showed a consistent and well-developed fronto-parietal network. In contrast, DD children revealed persistent deficits in number processing and arithmetic. Brain imaging results of the DD group showed an age-related activation increase in parietal regions (intraparietal sulcus), pointing to a delayed development of number processing areas. Besides, an activation increase in frontal areas was observed over time, indicating the use of compensatory mechanisms. In conclusion, results suggest a continuation in neural development of number representation in DD, whereas the neural network for simple ordinal number estimation seems to be stable or show only subtle changes in TD children over time.

Longitudinal Brain Development of Numerical Skills in Typically Developing Children and Children with Developmental Dyscalculia

PubMed Central

McCaskey, Ursina; von Aster, Michael; Maurer, Urs; Martin, Ernst; O'Gorman Tuura, Ruth; Kucian, Karin

2018-01-01

Developmental dyscalculia (DD) is a learning disability affecting the acquisition of numerical-arithmetical skills. Studies report persistent deficits in number processing and aberrant functional activation of the fronto-parietal numerical network in DD. However, the neural development of numerical abilities has been scarcely investigated. The present paper provides a first attempt to investigate behavioral and neural trajectories of numerical abilities longitudinally in typically developing (TD) and DD children. During a study period of 4 years, 28 children (8–11 years) were evaluated twice by means of neuropsychological tests and a numerical order fMRI paradigm. Over time, TD children improved in numerical abilities and showed a consistent and well-developed fronto-parietal network. In contrast, DD children revealed persistent deficits in number processing and arithmetic. Brain imaging results of the DD group showed an age-related activation increase in parietal regions (intraparietal sulcus), pointing to a delayed development of number processing areas. Besides, an activation increase in frontal areas was observed over time, indicating the use of compensatory mechanisms. In conclusion, results suggest a continuation in neural development of number representation in DD, whereas the neural network for simple ordinal number estimation seems to be stable or show only subtle changes in TD children over time. PMID:29354041

On the measurement of pilot perceptual workload - A comparison of assessment techniques addressing sensitivity and intrusion issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casali, J. G.; Wierwille, W. W.

1984-01-01

A flight simulator-based study was conducted to examine fourteen distinct mental workload estimation measures, including opinion, secondary task, physiological, and primary task measures. Both the relative sensitivity of the measures to changes in mental workload and the differential intrusion of the changes on primary task performance were assessed. The flight task was varied in difficulty by manipulation of the presentation rate and complexity of a hazard-perception task that required each of 48 licensed pilots to rely heavily on their perceptual abilities. Three rating scales (Modified Cooper-Harper, Multi-descriptor, and Workload-Compensation-Interference/Technical Effectiveness), two secondary task measures (time estimation and tapping regularity), one physiological measure (respiration frequency), and one primary task measure (danger-condition response time) were reliable indicants of workload changes. Recommendations for applying the workload measures are presented.

Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using 15N natural abundance in grain.

PubMed

Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

2016-09-01

Common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of 15 N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used 15 N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential parents to further improve SNF ability of common bean.

Functional test of pedotransfer functions to predict water flow and solute transport with the dual-permeability model MACRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeys, J.; Larsbo, M.; Bergström, L.; Brown, C. D.; Coquet, Y.; Jarvis, N. J.

2012-07-01

Estimating pesticide leaching risks at the regional scale requires the ability to completely parameterise a pesticide fate model using only survey data, such as soil and land-use maps. Such parameterisations usually rely on a set of lookup tables and (pedo)transfer functions, relating elementary soil and site properties to model parameters. The aim of this paper is to describe and test a complete set of parameter estimation algorithms developed for the pesticide fate model MACRO, which accounts for preferential flow in soil macropores. We used tracer monitoring data from 16 lysimeter studies, carried out in three European countries, to evaluate the ability of MACRO and this "blind parameterisation" scheme to reproduce measured solute leaching at the base of each lysimeter. We focused on the prediction of early tracer breakthrough due to preferential flow, because this is critical for pesticide leaching. We then calibrated a selected number of parameters in order to assess to what extent the prediction of water and solute leaching could be improved. Our results show that water flow was generally reasonably well predicted (median model efficiency, ME, of 0.42). Although the general pattern of solute leaching was reproduced well by the model, the overall model efficiency was low (median ME = -0.26) due to errors in the timing and magnitude of some peaks. Preferential solute leaching at early pore volumes was also systematically underestimated. Nonetheless, the ranking of soils according to solute loads at early pore volumes was reasonably well estimated (concordance correlation coefficient, CCC, between 0.54 and 0.72). Moreover, we also found that ignoring macropore flow leads to a significant deterioration in the ability of the model to reproduce the observed leaching pattern, and especially the early breakthrough in some soils. Finally, the calibration procedure showed that improving the estimation of solute transport parameters is probably more important than the estimation of water flow parameters. Overall, the results are encouraging for the use of this modelling set-up to estimate pesticide leaching risks at the regional-scale, especially where the objective is to identify vulnerable soils and "source" areas of contamination.

Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2010-01-01

Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the currentmore » state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.« less

Investigating Time-Varying Drivers of Grid Project Emissions Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barrett, Emily L.; Thayer, Brandon L.; Pal, Seemita

The emissions consequences of smart grid technologies depend heavily on their context and vary not only by geographical location, but by time of year. The same technology operated to meet the same objective may increase the emissions associated with energy generation for part of the year and decrease emissions during other times. The Grid Project Impact Quantification (GridPIQ) tool provides the ability to estimate these seasonal variations and garner insight into the time-varying drivers of grid project emissions impacts. This work leverages GridPIQ to examine the emissions implications across years and seasons of adding energy storage technology to reduce dailymore » peak demand in California and New York.« less

Time delay estimation using new spectral and adaptive filtering methods with applications to underwater target detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Mohammed A.

1997-11-01

In this dissertation, we present several novel approaches for detection and identification of targets of arbitrary shapes from the acoustic backscattered data and using the incident waveform. This problem is formulated as time- delay estimation and sinusoidal frequency estimation problems which both have applications in many other important areas in signal processing. Solving time-delay estimation problem allows the identification of the specular components in the backscattered signal from elastic and non-elastic targets. Thus, accurate estimation of these time delays would help in determining the existence of certain clues for detecting targets. Several new methods for solving these two problems in the time, frequency and wavelet domains are developed. In the time domain, a new block fast transversal filter (BFTF) is proposed for a fast implementation of the least squares (LS) method. This BFTF algorithm is derived by using data-related constrained block-LS cost function to guarantee global optimality. The new soft-constrained algorithm provides an efficient way of transferring weight information between blocks of data and thus it is computationally very efficient compared with other LS- based schemes. Additionally, the tracking ability of the algorithm can be controlled by varying the block length and/or a soft constrained parameter. The effectiveness of this algorithm is tested on several underwater acoustic backscattered data for elastic targets and non-elastic (cement chunk) objects. In the frequency domain, the time-delay estimation problem is converted to a sinusoidal frequency estimation problem by using the discrete Fourier transform. Then, the lagged sample covariance matrices of the resulting signal are computed and studied in terms of their eigen- structure. These matrices are shown to be robust and effective in extracting bases for the signal and noise subspaces. New MUSIC and matrix pencil-based methods are derived these subspaces. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated on the problem of detection of multiple specular components in the acoustic backscattered data. Finally, a method for the estimation of time delays using wavelet decomposition is derived. The sub-band adaptive filtering uses discrete wavelet transform for multi- resolution or sub-band decomposition. Joint time delay estimation for identifying multi-specular components and subsequent adaptive filtering processes are performed on the signal in each sub-band. This would provide multiple 'look' of the signal at different resolution scale which results in more accurate estimates for delays associated with the specular components. Simulation results on the simulated and real shallow water data are provided which show the promise of this new scheme for target detection in a heavy cluttered environment.

A temporal basis for Weber's law in value perception.

PubMed

Namboodiri, Vijay Mohan K; Mihalas, Stefan; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G

2014-01-01

Weber's law-the observation that the ability to perceive changes in magnitudes of stimuli is proportional to the magnitude-is a widely observed psychophysical phenomenon. It is also believed to underlie the perception of reward magnitudes and the passage of time. Since many ecological theories state that animals attempt to maximize reward rates, errors in the perception of reward magnitudes and delays must affect decision-making. Using an ecological theory of decision-making (TIMERR), we analyze the effect of multiple sources of noise (sensory noise, time estimation noise, and integration noise) on reward magnitude and subjective value perception. We show that the precision of reward magnitude perception is correlated with the precision of time perception and that Weber's law in time estimation can lead to Weber's law in value perception. The strength of this correlation is predicted to depend on the reward history of the animal. Subsequently, we show that sensory integration noise (either alone or in combination with time estimation noise) also leads to Weber's law in reward magnitude perception in an accumulator model, if it has balanced Poisson feedback. We then demonstrate that the noise in subjective value of a delayed reward, due to the combined effect of noise in both the perception of reward magnitude and delay, also abides by Weber's law. Thus, in our theory we prove analytically that the perception of reward magnitude, time, and subjective value change all approximately obey Weber's law.

Is Approximate Number Precision a Stable Predictor of Math Ability?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Libertus, Melissa E.; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2013-01-01

Previous research shows that children's ability to estimate numbers of items using their Approximate Number System (ANS) predicts later math ability. To more closely examine the predictive role of early ANS acuity on later abilities, we assessed the ANS acuity, math ability, and expressive vocabulary of preschoolers twice, six months apart. We…

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

Estimating the surface area of birds: using the homing pigeon (Columba livia) as a model.

PubMed

Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A

2014-05-08

Estimation of the surface area of the avian body is valuable for thermoregulation and metabolism studies as well as for assessing exposure to oil and other surface-active organic pollutants from a spill. The use of frozen carcasses for surface area estimations prevents the ability to modify the posture of the bird. The surface area of six live homing pigeons in the fully extended flight position was estimated using a noninvasive method. An equation was derived to estimate the total surface area of a pigeon based on its body weight. A pigeon's surface area in the fully extended flight position is approximately 4 times larger than the surface area of a pigeon in the perching position. The surface area of a bird is dependent on its physical position, and, therefore, the fully extended flight position exhibits the maximum area of a bird and should be considered the true surface area of a bird. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd | Biology Open.

Model-Based Engine Control Architecture with an Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the design and implementation of an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for model-based engine control (MBEC). Previously proposed MBEC architectures feature an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to produce estimates of both unmeasured engine parameters and estimates for the health of the engine. The success of this approach relies on the accuracy of the linear model and the ability of the optimal tuner to update its tuner estimates based on only a few sensors. Advances in computer processing are making it possible to replace the piece-wise linear model, developed off-line, with an on-board nonlinear model running in real-time. This will reduce the estimation errors associated with the linearization process, and is typically referred to as an extended Kalman filter. The non-linear extended Kalman filter approach is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40,000 (C-MAPSS40k) and compared to the previously proposed MBEC architecture. The results show that the EKF reduces the estimation error, especially during transient operation.

Model-Based Engine Control Architecture with an Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Connolly, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

This paper discusses the design and implementation of an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for model-based engine control (MBEC). Previously proposed MBEC architectures feature an optimal tuner Kalman Filter (OTKF) to produce estimates of both unmeasured engine parameters and estimates for the health of the engine. The success of this approach relies on the accuracy of the linear model and the ability of the optimal tuner to update its tuner estimates based on only a few sensors. Advances in computer processing are making it possible to replace the piece-wise linear model, developed off-line, with an on-board nonlinear model running in real-time. This will reduce the estimation errors associated with the linearization process, and is typically referred to as an extended Kalman filter. The nonlinear extended Kalman filter approach is applied to the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40,000 (C-MAPSS40k) and compared to the previously proposed MBEC architecture. The results show that the EKF reduces the estimation error, especially during transient operation.

Item Selection and Ability Estimation Procedures for a Mixed-Format Adaptive Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Tsung-Han; Dodd, Barbara G.

2012-01-01

In this study we compared five item selection procedures using three ability estimation methods in the context of a mixed-format adaptive test based on the generalized partial credit model. The item selection procedures used were maximum posterior weighted information, maximum expected information, maximum posterior weighted Kullback-Leibler…

Tools of Robustness for Item Response Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Douglas H.

This paper briefly demonstrates a few of the possibilities of a systematic application of robustness theory, concentrating on the estimation of ability when the true item response model does and does not fit the data. The definition of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of ability is briefly reviewed. After introducing the notion of…

Shared-environmental contributions to high cognitive ability.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Robert M; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

2009-07-01

Using a combined sample of adolescent twins, biological siblings, and adoptive siblings, we estimated and compared the differential shared-environmentality for high cognitive ability and the shared-environmental variance for the full range of ability during adolescence. Estimates obtained via multiple methods were in the neighborhood of 0.20, and suggest a modest effect of the shared environment on both high and full-range ability. We then examined the association of ability with three measures of the family environment in a subsample of adoptive siblings: parental occupational status, parental education, and disruptive life events. Only parental education showed significant (albeit modest) association with ability in both the biological and adoptive samples. We discuss these results in terms of the need for cognitive-development research to combine genetically sensitive designs and modern statistical methods with broad, thorough environmental measurement.

Real-Time Airborne Gamma-Ray Background Estimation Using NASVD with MLE and Radiation Transport for Calibration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Schweppe, John E.; Stave, Sean C.

2015-06-01

Helicopter-mounted gamma-ray detectors can provide law enforcement officials the means to quickly and accurately detect, identify, and locate radiological threats over a wide geographical area. The ability to accurately distinguish radiological threat-generated gamma-ray signatures from background gamma radiation in real time is essential in order to realize this potential. This problem is non-trivial, especially in urban environments for which the background may change very rapidly during flight. This exacerbates the challenge of estimating background due to the poor counting statistics inherent in real-time airborne gamma-ray spectroscopy measurements. To address this, we have developed a new technique for real-time estimation ofmore » background gamma radiation from aerial measurements. This method is built upon on the noise-adjusted singular value decomposition (NASVD) technique that was previously developed for estimating the potassium (K), uranium (U), and thorium (T) concentrations in soil post-flight. The method can be calibrated using K, U, and T spectra determined from radiation transport simulations along with basis functions, which may be determined empirically by applying maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to previously measured airborne gamma-ray spectra. The method was applied to both measured and simulated airborne gamma-ray spectra, with and without man-made radiological source injections. Compared to schemes based on simple averaging, this technique was less sensitive to background contamination from the injected man-made sources and may be particularly useful when the gamma-ray background frequently changes during the course of the flight.« less

Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure.

PubMed

Correa, John B; Apolzan, John W; Shepard, Desti N; Heil, Daniel P; Rood, Jennifer C; Martin, Corby K

2016-07-01

Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland-Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Angiogenesis Imaging by Mutual Information Analysis for Prostate Cancer Localization.

PubMed

Schalk, Stefan G; Demi, Libertario; Bouhouch, Nabil; Kuenen, Maarten P J; Postema, Arnoud W; de la Rosette, Jean J M C H; Wijkstra, Hessel; Tjalkens, Tjalling J; Mischi, Massimo

2017-03-01

The role of angiogenesis in cancer growth has stimulated research aimed at noninvasive cancer detection by blood perfusion imaging. Recently, contrast ultrasound dispersion imaging was proposed as an alternative method for angiogenesis imaging. After the intravenous injection of an ultrasound-contrast-agent bolus, dispersion can be indirectly estimated from the local similarity between neighboring time-intensity curves (TICs) measured by ultrasound imaging. Up until now, only linear similarity measures have been investigated. Motivated by the promising results of this approach in prostate cancer (PCa), we developed a novel dispersion estimation method based on mutual information, thus including nonlinear similarity, to further improve its ability to localize PCa. First, a simulation study was performed to establish the theoretical link between dispersion and mutual information. Next, the method's ability to localize PCa was validated in vivo in 23 patients (58 datasets) referred for radical prostatectomy by comparison with histology. A monotonic relationship between dispersion and mutual information was demonstrated. The in vivo study resulted in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area equal to 0.77, which was superior (p = 0.21-0.24) to that obtained by linear similarity measures (0.74-0.75) and (p <; 0.05) to that by conventional perfusion parameters (≤0.70). Mutual information between neighboring time-intensity curves can be used to indirectly estimate contrast dispersion and can lead to more accurate PCa localization. An improved PCa localization method can possibly lead to better grading and staging of tumors, and support focal-treatment guidance. Moreover, future employment of the method in other types of angiogenic cancer can be considered.

Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure

PubMed Central

Correa, John B.; Apolzan, John W.; Shepard, Desti N.; Heil, Daniel P.; Rood, Jennifer C.; Martin, Corby K.

2016-01-01

Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland–Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity. PMID:27270210

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo; Redder, Christopher

2010-01-01

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

Using MERRA Gridded Innovation for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, A.; Redder, C. R.

2010-12-01

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The Project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

Evaluating sampling strategies for larval cisco (Coregonus artedi)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, J.T.; Stockwell, J.D.; Yule, D.L.; Black, J.A.

2008-01-01

To improve our ability to assess larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) populations in Lake Superior, we conducted a study to compare several sampling strategies. First, we compared density estimates of larval cisco concurrently captured in surface waters with a 2 x 1-m paired neuston net and a 0.5-m (diameter) conical net. Density estimates obtained from the two gear types were not significantly different, suggesting that the conical net is a reasonable alternative to the more cumbersome and costly neuston net. Next, we assessed the effect of tow pattern (sinusoidal versus straight tows) to examine if propeller wash affected larval density. We found no effect of propeller wash on the catchability of larval cisco. Given the availability of global positioning systems, we recommend sampling larval cisco using straight tows to simplify protocols and facilitate straightforward measurements of volume filtered. Finally, we investigated potential trends in larval cisco density estimates by sampling four time periods during the light period of a day at individual sites. Our results indicate no significant trends in larval density estimates during the day. We conclude estimates of larval cisco density across space are not confounded by time at a daily timescale. Well-designed, cost effective surveys of larval cisco abundance will help to further our understanding of this important Great Lakes forage species.

Investigating the Eddy Diffusivity Concept in the Coastal Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypina, I.; Kirincich, A.; Lentz, S. J.; Sundermeyer, M. A.

2016-12-01

We test the validity, utility, and limitations of the lateral eddy diffusivity concept in a coastal environment through analyzing data from coupled drifter and dye releases within the footprint of a high-resolution (800 m) high-frequency radar south of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. Specifically, we investigate how well a combination of radar-based velocities and drifter-derived diffusivities can reproduce observed dye spreading over an 8-h time interval. A drifter-based estimate of an anisotropic diffusivity tensor is used to parameterize small-scale motions that are unresolved and under-resolved by the radar system. This leads to a significant improvement in the ability of the radar to reproduce the observed dye spreading. Our drifter-derived diffusivity estimates are O(10 m2/s), are consistent with the diffusivity inferred from aerial images of the dye taken using the quadcopter-mounted digital camera during the dye release, and are roughly an order of magnitude larger than diffusivity estimates of Okubo (O(1 m2/s)) for similar spatial scales ( 1 km). Despite the fact that the drifter-based diffusivity approach was successful in improving the ability of the radar to reproduce the observed dye spreading, the dispersion of drifters was, for the most part, not consistent with the diffusive spreading regime.

The Scottish way - getting results in soil spectroscopy without spending money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aitkenhead, Matt; Cameron, Clare; Gaskin, Graham; Choisy, Bastien; Coull, Malcolm; Black, Helaina

2016-04-01

Achieving soil characterisation using spectroscopy requires several things. These include soil data to develop or train a calibration model, a method of capturing spectra, the ability to actually develop a calibration model and also additional data to reinforce the model by introducing some form of stratification or site-specific information. Each of these steps requires investment in both time and money. Here we present an approach developed at the James Hutton Institute that achieves the end goal with minimal cost, by making as much use as possible of existing soil and environmental datasets for Scotland. The spectroscopy device that has been developed is PHYLIS (Prototype HYperspectral Low-cost Imaging System) that was constructed using inexpensive optical components, and uses a basic digital camera to produce visible-range spectra. The results show that for a large number of soil parameters, it is possible to estimate values either very well (RSQ > 0.9) (LOI, C, exchangeable H), well (RSQ > 0.75) (N, pH) or moderately (RSQ > 0.5) (Mg, Na, K, Fe, Al, sand, silt, clay). The methods used to achieve these results are described. A number of additional parameters were not well estimated (elemental concentrations), and we describe how work is ongoing to improve our ability to estimate these using similar technology and data.

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

2006-01-01

Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Using Time-Phased Casualty Estimates to Determine Medical Resupply Requirements

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-18

calculated from the list of tasks. The RSVP-planned MTF laydown would be replaced by the reporting MTF with a known location. One advantage of...Another advantage is the ability to adapt quickly to changing requirements. Supplies that are used at a faster than initially forecast rate will...Officer ( GMO ) Platforms. San Diego, Calif: Naval Health Research Center; 2001. Technical Report No. 01-18. 5. Galarneau MR, Pang G, Konoske PJ

Improving the Reliability of Student Scores from Speeded Assessments: An Illustration of Conditional Item Response Theory Using a Computer-Administered Measure of Vocabulary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petscher, Yaacov; Mitchell, Alison M.; Foorman, Barbara R.

2015-01-01

A growing body of literature suggests that response latency, the amount of time it takes an individual to respond to an item, may be an important factor to consider when using assessment data to estimate the ability of an individual. Considering that tests of passage and list fluency are being adapted to a computer administration format, it is…

Occupational stress perception and its potential impact on work ability.

PubMed

Yong, Mei; Nasterlack, Michael; Pluto, Rolf-Peter; Lang, Stefan; Oberlinner, Christoph

2013-01-01

To examine perceived stress across employees with different occupational status, to investigate the impact of stress on work ability and to derive conclusions regarding health promotion activities. A comprehensive survey combining questionnaire and medical examination was offered in one division in BASF Ludwigshafen. Among 867 voluntary participants, 653 returned complete questionnaires. The questions were directed at perception of safety at the workplace, self-rated health status, frequency of stress symptoms, unrealistic job demands, time pressure and maladjustment of work life balance. The outcome of interest was self-estimated health measured by the Work Ability Index (WAI). Occupational stressors were perceived differently across occupational status groups. Frontline operators had more health concerns due to workplace conditions, while professional and managerial staff reported higher frequencies of perceived tension, time pressure, and maladjustment of work life balance. After adjustment for occupational status, demographic and lifestyle factors, perceived stress was associated with a modest to strong decline in WAI scores. While perceived occupational stress had an apparent impact on WAI, and WAI has been demonstrated to be predictive of early retirement, more intensive and employee group-specific stress management interventions are being implemented beyond traditional strategies of routine occupational medical surveillance.

Effects of Differential Item Functioning on Examinees' Test Performance and Reliability of Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Zhang, Jinming

2017-01-01

Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of differential item functioning (DIF) on measurement consequences such as total scores, item response theory (IRT) ability estimates, and test reliability in terms of the ratio of true-score variance to observed-score variance and the standard error of estimation for the IRT ability parameter. The…

Effects of Content Balancing and Item Selection Method on Ability Estimation in Computerized Adaptive Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Alper; Ozbasi, Durmus

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study aims to reveal effects of content balancing and item selection method on ability estimation in computerized adaptive tests by comparing Fisher's maximum information (FMI) and likelihood weighted information (LWI) methods. Research Methods: Four groups of examinees (250, 500, 750, 1000) and a bank of 500 items with 10 different…

The revival of the Baldwin effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontanari, José F.; Santos, Mauro

2017-10-01

The idea that a genetically fixed behavior evolved from the once differential learning ability of individuals that performed the behavior is known as the Baldwin effect. A highly influential paper [G.E. Hinton, S.J. Nowlan, Complex Syst. 1, 495 (1987)] claimed that this effect can be observed in silico, but here we argue that what was actually shown is that the learning ability is easily selected for. Then we demonstrate the Baldwin effect to happen in the in silico scenario by estimating the probability and waiting times for the learned behavior to become innate. Depending on parameter values, we find that learning can increase the chance of fixation of the learned behavior by several orders of magnitude compared with the non-learning situation.

Computing moment to moment BOLD activation for real-time neurofeedback

PubMed Central

Hinds, Oliver; Ghosh, Satrajit; Thompson, Todd W.; Yoo, Julie J.; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Triantafyllou, Christina; Gabrieli, John D.E.

2013-01-01

Estimating moment to moment changes in blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) activation levels from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data has applications for learned regulation of regional activation, brain state monitoring, and brain-machine interfaces. In each of these contexts, accurate estimation of the BOLD signal in as little time as possible is desired. This is a challenging problem due to the low signal-to-noise ratio of fMRI data. Previous methods for real-time fMRI analysis have either sacrificed the ability to compute moment to moment activation changes by averaging several acquisitions into a single activation estimate or have sacrificed accuracy by failing to account for prominent sources of noise in the fMRI signal. Here we present a new method for computing the amount of activation present in a single fMRI acquisition that separates moment to moment changes in the fMRI signal intensity attributable to neural sources from those due to noise, resulting in a feedback signal more reflective of neural activation. This method computes an incremental general linear model fit to the fMRI timeseries, which is used to calculate the expected signal intensity at each new acquisition. The difference between the measured intensity and the expected intensity is scaled by the variance of the estimator in order to transform this residual difference into a statistic. Both synthetic and real data were used to validate this method and compare it to the only other published real-time fMRI method. PMID:20682350

Atmospheric Turbulence Estimates from a Pulsed Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pruis, Matthew J.; Delisi, Donald P.; Ahmad, Nash'at N.; Proctor, Fred H.

2013-01-01

Estimates of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) were obtained from measurements made by a coherent pulsed lidar and compared with estimates from mesoscale model simulations and measurements from an in situ sonic anemometer at the Denver International Airport and with EDR estimates from the last observation time of the trailing vortex pair. The estimates of EDR from the lidar were obtained using two different methodologies. The two methodologies show consistent estimates of the vertical profiles. Comparison of EDR derived from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model with the in situ lidar estimates show good agreement during the daytime convective boundary layer, but the WRF simulations tend to overestimate EDR during the nighttime. The EDR estimates from a sonic anemometer located at 7.3 meters above ground level are approximately one order of magnitude greater than both the WRF and lidar estimates - which are from greater heights - during the daytime convective boundary layer and substantially greater during the nighttime stable boundary layer. The consistency of the EDR estimates from different methods suggests a reasonable ability to predict the temporal evolution of a spatially averaged vertical profile of EDR in an airport terminal area using a mesoscale model during the daytime convective boundary layer. In the stable nighttime boundary layer, there may be added value to EDR estimates provided by in situ lidar measurements.

Do subitizing deficits in developmental dyscalculia involve pattern recognition weakness?

PubMed

Ashkenazi, Sarit; Mark-Zigdon, Nitza; Henik, Avishai

2013-01-01

The abilities of children diagnosed with developmental dyscalculia (DD) were examined in two types of object enumeration: subitizing, and small estimation (5-9 dots). Subitizing is usually defined as a fast and accurate assessment of a number of small dots (range 1 to 4 dots), and estimation is an imprecise process to assess a large number of items (range 5 dots or more). Based on reaction time (RT) and accuracy analysis, our results indicated a deficit in the subitizing and small estimation range among DD participants in relation to controls. There are indications that subitizing is based on pattern recognition, thus presenting dots in a canonical shape in the estimation range should result in a subitizing-like pattern. In line with this theory, our control group presented a subitizing-like pattern in the small estimation range for canonically arranged dots, whereas the DD participants presented a deficit in the estimation of canonically arranged dots. The present finding indicates that pattern recognition difficulties may play a significant role in both subitizing and subitizing deficits among those with DD. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Unscented predictive variable structure filter for satellite attitude estimation with model errors when using low precision sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lu; Li, Hengnian

2016-10-01

For the satellite attitude estimation problem, the serious model errors always exist and hider the estimation performance of the Attitude Determination and Control System (ACDS), especially for a small satellite with low precision sensors. To deal with this problem, a new algorithm for the attitude estimation, referred to as the unscented predictive variable structure filter (UPVSF) is presented. This strategy is proposed based on the variable structure control concept and unscented transform (UT) sampling method. It can be implemented in real time with an ability to estimate the model errors on-line, in order to improve the state estimation precision. In addition, the model errors in this filter are not restricted only to the Gaussian noises; therefore, it has the advantages to deal with the various kinds of model errors or noises. It is anticipated that the UT sampling strategy can further enhance the robustness and accuracy of the novel UPVSF. Numerical simulations show that the proposed UPVSF is more effective and robustness in dealing with the model errors and low precision sensors compared with the traditional unscented Kalman filter (UKF).

Gone to the Beach — Using GIS to infer how people value ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Estimating the non-market value of beaches for saltwater recreation is complex. An individual’s preference for a beach depends on their perception of beach characteristics. When choosing one beach over another, an individual balances these personal preferences with any additional costs including travel time and/or fees to access the beach. This trade-off can be used to infer how people value different beach characteristics; especially when beaches are free to the public, beach value estimates rely heavily on accurate travel times. A current case study focused on public access on Cape Cod, MA will be used to demonstrate how travel costs can be used to determine the service area of different beaches, and model expected use of those beaches based on demographics. We will describe several of the transportation networks and route services available and compare a few based on their ability to meet our specific requirements of scale and seasonal travel time accuracy. We are currently developing a recreational demand model, based on visitation data and beach characteristics, that will allow decision makers to predict the benefits of different levels of water quality improvement. An important part of that model is the time required for potential recreation participants to get to different beaches. This presentation will describe different ways to estimate travel times and the advantages/disadvantages for our particular application. It will go on to outline how freely a

Simple prognostic model for patients with advanced cancer based on performance status.

PubMed

Jang, Raymond W; Caraiscos, Valerie B; Swami, Nadia; Banerjee, Subrata; Mak, Ernie; Kaya, Ebru; Rodin, Gary; Bryson, John; Ridley, Julia Z; Le, Lisa W; Zimmermann, Camilla

2014-09-01

Providing survival estimates is important for decision making in oncology care. The purpose of this study was to provide survival estimates for outpatients with advanced cancer, using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scales, and to compare their ability to predict survival. ECOG, PPS, and KPS were completed by physicians for each new patient attending the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre outpatient Oncology Palliative Care Clinic (OPCC) from April 2007 to February 2010. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test for trend was employed to test for differences in survival curves for each level of performance status (PS), and the concordance index (C-statistic) was used to test the predictive discriminatory ability of each PS measure. Measures were completed for 1,655 patients. PS delineated survival well for all three scales according to the log-rank test for trend (P < .001). Survival was approximately halved for each worsening performance level. Median survival times, in days, for each ECOG level were: EGOG 0, 293; ECOG 1, 197; ECOG 2, 104; ECOG 3, 55; and ECOG 4, 25.5. Median survival times, in days, for PPS (and KPS) were: PPS/KPS 80-100, 221 (215); PPS/KPS 60 to 70, 115 (119); PPS/KPS 40 to 50, 51 (49); PPS/KPS 10 to 30, 22 (29). The C-statistic was similar for all three scales and ranged from 0.63 to 0.64. We present a simple tool that uses PS alone to prognosticate in advanced cancer, and has similar discriminatory ability to more complex models. Copyright © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Psychophysical evidence for the number sense.

PubMed

Burr, David C; Anobile, Giovanni; Arrighi, Roberto

2017-02-19

It is now clear that most animals, including humans, possess an ability to rapidly estimate number. Some have questioned whether this ability arises from dedicated numerosity mechanisms, or is derived indirectly from judgements of density or other attributes. We describe a series of psychophysical experiments, largely using adaptation techniques, which demonstrate clearly the existence of a number sense in humans. The number sense is truly general, extending over space, time and sensory modality, and is closely linked with action. We further show that when multiple cues are present, numerosity emerges as the natural dimension for discrimination. However, when element density increases past a certain level, the elements become too crowded to parse, and the scene is perceived as a texture rather than array of elements. The two different regimes are psychophysically discriminable in that they follow distinct psychophysical laws, and show different dependencies on eccentricity, luminance levels and effects of perceptual grouping. The distinction is important, as the ability to discriminate numerosity, but not texture, correlates with formal maths skills.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The origins of numerical abilities'. © 2017 The Authors.

Child development at 5 years of age predicted mathematics ability and schooling outcomes in Malawian adolescents.

PubMed

Gandhi, Mihir; Teivaanmaki, Tiina; Maleta, Kenneth; Duan, Xiaolian; Ashorn, Per; Cheung, Yin Bun

2013-01-01

This study aimed to examine the association between child development at 5 years of age and mathematics ability and schooling outcomes at 12 years of age in Malawian children. A prospective cohort study looking at 609 rural Malawian children. Outcome measures were percentage of correctly answered mathematics questions, highest school grade completed and number of times repeating school grades at 12 years of age. A child development summary score obtained at 5 years of age was the main exposure variable. Regression analyses were used to estimate the association and adjust for confounders. Sensitivity analysis was performed by handling losses to follow-up with multiple imputation (MI) method. The summary score was positively associated with percentage of correctly answered mathematics questions (p = 0.057; p = 0.031 MI) and with highest school grade completed (p = 0.096; p = 0.070 MI), and negatively associated with number of times repeating school grades (p = 0.834; p = 0.339 MI). Fine motor score at 5 years was independently associated with the mathematic score (p = 0.032; p = 0.011 MI). The association between child development and mathematics ability did not depend on school attendance. Child development at 5 years of age showed signs of positive association with mathematics ability and possibly with highest school grade completed at 12 years of age. © 2012 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2012 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

The longitudinal association between social functioning and theory of mind in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Sullivan, Sarah; Lewis, Glyn; Mohr, Christine; Herzig, Daniela; Corcoran, Rhiannon; Drake, Richard; Evans, Jonathan

2014-01-01

There is some cross-sectional evidence that theory of mind ability is associated with social functioning in those with psychosis but the direction of this relationship is unknown. This study investigates the longitudinal association between both theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome in first-episode psychosis. Fifty-four people with first-episode psychosis were followed up at 6 and 12 months. Random effects regression models were used to estimate the stability of theory of mind over time and the association between baseline theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome. Neither baseline theory of mind ability (regression coefficients: Hinting test 1.07 95% CI -0.74, 2.88; Visual Cartoon test -2.91 95% CI -7.32, 1.51) nor baseline symptoms (regression coefficients: positive symptoms -0.04 95% CI -1.24, 1.16; selected negative symptoms -0.15 95% CI -2.63, 2.32) were associated with social functioning outcome. There was evidence that theory of mind ability was stable over time, (regression coefficients: Hinting test 5.92 95% CI -6.66, 8.92; Visual Cartoon test score 0.13 95% CI -0.17, 0.44). Neither baseline theory of mind ability nor psychotic symptoms are associated with social functioning outcome. Further longitudinal work is needed to understand the origin of social functioning deficits in psychosis.

Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiwu; Buckler, Edward S; Casstevens, Terry M; Bradbury, Peter J

2009-11-01

Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample size and number of markers used for GWAS is increasing dramatically, resulting in greater statistical power to detect those associations. The use of mixed models with increasingly large data sets depends on the availability of software for analyzing those models. While multiple software packages implement the mixed model method, no single package provides the best combination of fast computation, ability to handle large samples, flexible modeling and ease of use. Key elements of association analysis with mixed models are reviewed, including modeling phenotype-genotype associations using mixed models, population stratification, kinship and its estimation, variance component estimation, use of best linear unbiased predictors or residuals in place of raw phenotype, improving efficiency and software-user interaction. The available software packages are evaluated, and suggestions made for future software development.

A Reconstruction Method for the Estimation of Temperatures of Multiple Sources Applied for Nanoparticle-Mediated Hyperthermia.

PubMed

Steinberg, Idan; Tamir, Gil; Gannot, Israel

2018-03-16

Solid malignant tumors are one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Many times complete removal is not possible and alternative methods such as focused hyperthermia are used. Precise control of the hyperthermia process is imperative for the successful application of such treatment. To that end, this research presents a fast method that enables the estimation of deep tissue heat distribution by capturing and processing the transient temperature at the boundary based on a bio-heat transfer model. The theoretical model is rigorously developed and thoroughly validated by a series of experiments. A 10-fold improvement is demonstrated in resolution and visibility on tissue mimicking phantoms. The inverse problem is demonstrated as well with a successful application of the model for imaging deep-tissue embedded heat sources. Thereby, allowing the physician then ability to dynamically evaluate the hyperthermia treatment efficiency in real time.

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies. PMID:24314298

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding.

PubMed

Ould Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar; Ogutu, Joseph O; Schulz-Streeck, Torben; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Gordillo, Andres; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2013-12-06

In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies.

Estimation of work capacity and work ability among plantation workers in South India.

PubMed

Anbazhagan, Suguna; Ramesh, Naveen; Surekha, A; Fathima, Farah N; Melina; Anjali

2016-01-01

Work capacity is the ability to perform real physical work, and work ability is a result of interaction of worker to his or her work that is how good a worker is at present, in near future, and how able is he or she to do his or her work with respect to work demands and health and mental resources. To assess the work capacity and work ability and to study the factors associated with work capacity and work ability of workers at a tea plantation in South India. A cross-sectional study was conducted at a tea plantation in Annamalai, South India, from March to May 2015. Data were collected using a structured interview schedule comprising of three parts as follows: sociodemographic data, work ability questionnaire, and work capacity assessment. Of the 199 subjects participated in the study, majority [90 (45.3%)] were in the age group of 46-55 years, and 128 (64.3%) were females. Of the 199 workers, 12.6% had poor aerobic capacity (by Harvard Step test), 88.4% had an endurance of more than 1 h, 70.9% had better work productivity and energetic efficiency, and the voluntary activity workers spent most time on household chores. Of the 199 workers assessed, only 9.6% had good work ability. There is negative correlation between work ability and body mass index (BMI). Our study found 12.6% workers with poor aerobic capacity and 9.6% of workers with good work ability. Periodic health examinations and other screening procedures should be made as routine in workplace to improve work ability and capacity.

APOSTLE: 11 TRANSIT OBSERVATIONS OF TrES-3b

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kundurthy, P.; Becker, A. C.; Agol, E.

2013-02-10

The Apache Point Survey of Transit Lightcurves of Exoplanets (APOSTLE) observed 11 transits of TrES-3b over two years in order to constrain system parameters and look for transit timing and depth variations. We describe an updated analysis protocol for APOSTLE data, including the reduction pipeline, transit model, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyzer. Our estimates of the system parameters for TrES-3b are consistent with previous estimates to within the 2{sigma} confidence level. We improved the errors (by 10%-30%) on system parameters such as the orbital inclination (i {sub orb}), impact parameter (b), and stellar density ({rho}{sub *}) compared to previousmore » measurements. The near-grazing nature of the system, and incomplete sampling of some transits, limited our ability to place reliable uncertainties on individual transit depths and hence we do not report strong evidence for variability. Our analysis of the transit timing data shows no evidence for transit timing variations and our timing measurements are able to rule out super-Earth and gas giant companions in low-order mean motion resonance with TrES-3b.« less

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

2013-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, M.A.; de Beurs, K. M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; van, Leeuwen; Brown, Jesslyn F.; de Wit, A.; Schaepman, M.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.S.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.

2009-01-01

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Using mean duration and variation of procedure times to plan a list of surgical operations to fit into the scheduled list time.

PubMed

Pandit, Jaideep J; Tavare, Aniket

2011-07-01

It is important that a surgical list is planned to utilise as much of the scheduled time as possible while not over-running, because this can lead to cancellation of operations. We wished to assess whether, theoretically, the known duration of individual operations could be used quantitatively to predict the likely duration of the operating list. In a university hospital setting, we first assessed the extent to which the current ad-hoc method of operating list planning was able to match the scheduled operating list times for 153 consecutive historical lists. Using receiver operating curve analysis, we assessed the ability of an alternative method to predict operating list duration for the same operating lists. This method uses a simple formula: the sum of individual operation times and a pooled standard deviation of these times. We used the operating list duration estimated from this formula to generate a probability that the operating list would finish within its scheduled time. Finally, we applied the simple formula prospectively to 150 operating lists, 'shadowing' the current ad-hoc method, to confirm the predictive ability of the formula. The ad-hoc method was very poor at planning: 50% of historical operating lists were under-booked and 37% over-booked. In contrast, the simple formula predicted the correct outcome (under-run or over-run) for 76% of these operating lists. The calculated probability that a planned series of operations will over-run or under-run was found useful in developing an algorithm to adjust the planned cases optimally. In the prospective series, 65% of operating lists were over-booked and 10% were under-booked. The formula predicted the correct outcome for 84% of operating lists. A simple quantitative method of estimating operating list duration for a series of operations leads to an algorithm (readily created on an Excel spreadsheet, http://links.lww.com/EJA/A19) that can potentially improve operating list planning.

Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bifulco, Robert

2012-01-01

The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

Effects of Calibration Sample Size and Item Bank Size on Ability Estimation in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Alper; Weiss, David J.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of calibration sample size and item bank size on examinee ability estimation in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). For this purpose, a 500-item bank pre-calibrated using the three-parameter logistic model with 10,000 examinees was simulated. Calibration samples of varying sizes (150, 250, 350, 500,…

The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores. NBER Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Karsten; Heckman, James J.; Mullen, Kathleen J.

This study developed two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for the endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. The methods were applied to data on schooling and test scores. Estimates from the two methods are in…

Brief Report: Use of DQ for Estimating Cognitive Ability in Young Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delmolino, Lara M.

2006-01-01

The utility of Developmental Quotients (DQ) from the Psychoeducational Profile--Revised (PEP-R) to estimate cognitive ability in young children with autism was assessed. DQ scores were compared to scores from the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scales--Fourth Edition (SB-FE) for 27 preschool students with autism. Overall and domain DQ's on the PEP-R…

Farewell to life on land - thoracic strength as a new indicator to determine paleoecology in secondary aquatic mammals.

PubMed

Ando, Konami; Fujiwara, Shin-Ichi

2016-12-01

Habitat shifts from land to water have occurred independently in several mammal lineages. However, because we do not know completely about the relationship between skeletal morphology and function, both reliable life reconstructions of each extinct taxon and the timing of those shifts in locomotor strategies are yet to be fully understood. We estimated the strengths of rib cages against vertical compression in 26 extant and four extinct mammal specimens including cetartiodactyls, paenungulates, and carnivorans, representing 11 terrestrial, six semi-aquatic, and nine obligate aquatic taxa. Our analyses of extant taxa showed that strengths were high among terrestrial/semi-aquatic mammals, whose rib cages are subjected to vertical compression during the support on land, whereas strengths were low among obligate aquatic mammals, whose rib cages are not subjected to antigravity force in the water. We therefore propose rib strength as a new index to estimate the ability of an animal to be supported on land while being supported by either the forelimbs or thoracic region. According to our analyses of extinct taxa, this ability to be supported on land was rejected for a basal cetacean (Cetartiodactyla: Ambulocetus) and two desmostylians (Paenungulata: Paleoparadoxia and Neoparadoxia). However, this ability was not rejected for one desmostylian species (Desmostylus). Further study of the ribs of extant/extinct semi-aquatic taxa may help in understanding the ecological shifts in these groups. © 2016 Anatomical Society.

Non-verbal sensorimotor timing deficits in children and adolescents who stutter

PubMed Central

Falk, Simone; Müller, Thilo; Dalla Bella, Simone

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence that motor and speech disorders co-occur during development. In the present study, we investigated whether stuttering, a developmental speech disorder, is associated with a predictive timing deficit in childhood and adolescence. By testing sensorimotor synchronization abilities, we aimed to assess whether predictive timing is dysfunctional in young participants who stutter (8–16 years). Twenty German children and adolescents who stutter and 43 non-stuttering participants matched for age and musical training were tested on their ability to synchronize their finger taps with periodic tone sequences and with a musical beat. Forty percent of children and 90% of adolescents who stutter displayed poor synchronization with both metronome and musical stimuli, falling below 2.5% of the estimated population based on the performance of the group without the disorder. Synchronization deficits were characterized by either lower synchronization accuracy or lower consistency or both. Lower accuracy resulted in an over-anticipation of the pacing event in participants who stutter. Moreover, individual profiles revealed that lower consistency was typical of participants that were severely stuttering. These findings support the idea that malfunctioning predictive timing during auditory–motor coupling plays a role in stuttering in children and adolescents. PMID:26217245

The Measurement of Human Time Estimating Ability Using a Modified Jerison Device.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-01

SCHOOL OF ENGI. D C KINNEY UNLSIIDDEC 84 AFIT/GSO/ENG/84D-2 F/G 5/9 N mhhhhhhhhhmhhl I fllfll|fflfflfflfflf Emmhhmhhhhhhhu IIIIIIIIIIIIII...MODIFIED JERISON DEVICE THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology Air University In Partial...these individuals and others in the laboratory was a key factor in the sucessful completion of this research. I am also grateful to the many subjects

Consolidated National Intelligence Centers: The Potential Impact on the Efficiency and Effectiveness of America’s National Intelligence Community

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

the ability of IC leaders to think and manage jointly, while not diluting the specialized activities of collectors and analysts working within their...organizational model and doctrine that are increasingly relics of Cold-War threats and thinking . As the military has learned , it takes decades to...burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions , searching existing

Alternate retrieval technology demonstrations program - test report (ARD Environmental, Inc.)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berglin, E.J.

A prototype vehicle, control system, and waste and water scavenging system were designed and fabricated with essentially the full capabilities of the vehicle system proposed by ARD Environmental. A test tank mockup, including riser and decontamination chamber were designed and fabricated, and approximately 830 cubic feet of six varieties of waste simulants poured. The tests were performed by ARD Environmental personnel at its site in Laurel, Maryland, from 4/22/97 through 5/2/97. The capabilities tested were deployment and retrieval, extended mobility and productivity, the ability to operate the system using video viewing only, retrieval after simulated failure, and retrieval and decontamination.more » Testing commenced with deployment of the vehicle into the tank. Deployment was accomplished using a crane and auxiliary winch to position the vehicle and lower it through the decontamination chamber, into the 36`` diameter x 6` high riser, and touch down on the waste field in the tank. The initial mobility tests were conducted immediately after deployment, prior to sluicing, as the waste field exhibited the greatest amount of variation at this time. This test demonstrated the ability of the vehicle to maneuver over the simulated waste field, and the ability of the operator to work with only video viewing available. In addition, the ability of the vehicle to right itself after being turned on its side was demonstrated. The production rate was evaluated daily through the testing period by measuring the surface and estimating the amount of material removed. The test demonstrated the ability of the vehicle to reduce the waste surface using 400 psi (nominal) water jets, scavenge water and material from the work area, and move to any location, even in the relatively confined space of the 20` diameter test tank. In addition, the ability to sluice to a remote scavenging module was demonstrated. The failure mode test demonstrated the ability to retrieve a stuck vehicle by pulling on the tether, even if the vehicle wheels were locked or the vehicle was on its side. Line pull required to retrieve the vehicle was measured, and side load on the riser calculated from the line pull and line angles. Finally, the decontamination test demonstrated the ability to effectively clean the umbilical and vehicle. The issues addressed and resolved during the testing were: Feasibility of deploying a vehicle- based system, mobility, production rate and limitation of water in the tank during sluicing, mining strategy, operator efficiency, vehicle recovery, and decontamination. Water usage and waste removal rates were used to estimate the time and water usage requirements for cleaning a Hanford SST.« less

Probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water.

PubMed

Wissler, Eugene H

2003-01-01

Estimating the probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water presents formidable challenges for both theoreticians and empirics. A number of theoretical models have been developed assuming that death occurs when the central body temperature, computed using a mathematical model, falls to a certain level. This paper describes a different theoretical approach to estimating the probability of survival. The human thermal model developed by Wissler is used to compute the central temperature during immersion in cold water. Simultaneously, a survival probability function is computed by solving a differential equation that defines how the probability of survival decreases with increasing time. The survival equation assumes that the probability of occurrence of a fatal event increases as the victim's central temperature decreases. Generally accepted views of the medical consequences of hypothermia and published reports of various accidents provide information useful for defining a "fatality function" that increases exponentially with decreasing central temperature. The particular function suggested in this paper yields a relationship between immersion time for 10% probability of survival and water temperature that agrees very well with Molnar's empirical observations based on World War II data. The method presented in this paper circumvents a serious difficulty with most previous models--that one's ability to survive immersion in cold water is determined almost exclusively by the ability to maintain a high level of shivering metabolism.

Dimension reduction of frequency-based direct Granger causality measures on short time series.

PubMed

Siggiridou, Elsa; Kimiskidis, Vasilios K; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

2017-09-01

The mainstream in the estimation of effective brain connectivity relies on Granger causality measures in the frequency domain. If the measure is meant to capture direct causal effects accounting for the presence of other observed variables, as in multi-channel electroencephalograms (EEG), typically the fit of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the multivariate time series is required. For short time series of many variables, the estimation of VAR may not be stable requiring dimension reduction resulting in restricted or sparse VAR models. The restricted VAR obtained by the modified backward-in-time selection method (mBTS) is adapted to the generalized partial directed coherence (GPDC), termed restricted GPDC (RGPDC). Dimension reduction on other frequency based measures, such the direct directed transfer function (dDTF), is straightforward. First, a simulation study using linear stochastic multivariate systems is conducted and RGPDC is favorably compared to GPDC on short time series in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Then the two measures are tested for their ability to detect changes in brain connectivity during an epileptiform discharge (ED) from multi-channel scalp EEG. It is shown that RGPDC identifies better than GPDC the connectivity structure of the simulated systems, as well as changes in the brain connectivity, and is less dependent on the free parameter of VAR order. The proposed dimension reduction in frequency measures based on VAR constitutes an appropriate strategy to estimate reliably brain networks within short-time windows. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biopsychosocial Characteristics of Community-dwelling Older Adults with Limited Ability to Walk ¼ Mile

PubMed Central

Hardy, Susan E.; McGurl, David J.; Studenski, Stephanie A.; Degenholtz, Howard B.

2010-01-01

Objectives To establish nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of self-reported difficulty and inability to walk ¼ mile among older adults and to identify the characteristics independently associated with difficulty or inability to walk ¼ mile. Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2003 Cost and Use Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Setting Community. Participants 9563 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, representing an estimated total population of 34.2 million older adults. Measurements Self-reported ability to walk ¼ mile, sociodemographics, chronic conditions, body mass index, smoking, and functional status. Results In 2003, an estimated 9.5 million aged Medicare beneficiaries had difficulty walking ¼ mile and 5.9 million were unable. Among the 20.2 million older adults with no difficulty in basic or instrumental activities of daily living (ADL), an estimated 4.3 million (21%) had limited ability to walk ¼ mile. Having difficulty or being unable to walk ¼ mile was independently associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic ethnicity, lower educational level, Medicaid entitlement, most chronic medical conditions, current smoking, and being overweight or obese. Conclusion Almost half of older adults, and 20% of those reporting no ADL limitations, report limited ability to walk ¼ mile. Among functionally independent older adults, reported ability to walk ¼ mile can identify vulnerable older adults with greater medical problems and fewer resources, and may be a valuable clinical marker in planning their care. Future work is needed to determine the association between ¼ mile walk ability and subsequent functional decline and healthcare utilization. PMID:20210817

Genetics and the conservation of natural populations: allozymes to genomes.

PubMed

Allendorf, Fred W

2017-01-01

I consider how the study of genetic variation has influenced efforts to conserve natural populations over the last 50 years. Studies with allozymes in the 1970s provided the first estimates of the amount of genetic variation within and between natural populations at multiple loci. These early studies played an important role in developing plans to conserve species. The description of genetic variation in mitochondrial DNA in the early 1980s laid the foundation for the field of phylogeography, which provided a deeper look in time of the relationships and connectivity among populations. The development of microsatellites in the 1990s provided much more powerful means to describe genetic variation at nuclear loci, including the ability to detect past bottlenecks and estimate current effective population size with a single temporal sample. In the 2000s, single nucleotide polymorphisms presented a cornucopia of loci that has greatly improved power to estimate genetic and population demographic parameters important for conservation. Today, population genomics presents the ability to detect regions of the genome that are affected by natural selection (e.g. local adaptation or inbreeding depression). In addition, the ability to genotype historical samples has provided power to understand how climate change and other anthropogenic phenomena have affected populations. Modern molecular techniques provide unprecedented power to understand genetic variation in natural populations. Nevertheless, application of this information requires sound understanding of population genetics theory. I believe that current training in conservation genetics focuses too much on the latest techniques and too little on understanding the conceptual basis which is needed to interpret these data and ask good questions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tracking of electrochemical impedance of batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piret, H.; Granjon, P.; Guillet, N.; Cattin, V.

2016-04-01

This paper presents an evolutionary battery impedance estimation method, which can be easily embedded in vehicles or nomad devices. The proposed method not only allows an accurate frequency impedance estimation, but also a tracking of its temporal evolution contrary to classical electrochemical impedance spectroscopy methods. Taking into account constraints of cost and complexity, we propose to use the existing electronics of current control to perform a frequency evolutionary estimation of the electrochemical impedance. The developed method uses a simple wideband input signal, and relies on a recursive local average of Fourier transforms. The averaging is controlled by a single parameter, managing a trade-off between tracking and estimation performance. This normalized parameter allows to correctly adapt the behavior of the proposed estimator to the variations of the impedance. The advantage of the proposed method is twofold: the method is easy to embed into a simple electronic circuit, and the battery impedance estimator is evolutionary. The ability of the method to monitor the impedance over time is demonstrated on a simulator, and on a real Lithium ion battery, on which a repeatability study is carried out. The experiments reveal good tracking results, and estimation performance as accurate as the usual laboratory approaches.

Mathematical Ability and Socio-Economic Background: IRT Modeling to Estimate Genotype by Environment Interaction.

PubMed

Schwabe, Inga; Boomsma, Dorret I; van den Berg, Stéphanie M

2017-12-01

Genotype by environment interaction in behavioral traits may be assessed by estimating the proportion of variance that is explained by genetic and environmental influences conditional on a measured moderating variable, such as a known environmental exposure. Behavioral traits of interest are often measured by questionnaires and analyzed as sum scores on the items. However, statistical results on genotype by environment interaction based on sum scores can be biased due to the properties of a scale. This article presents a method that makes it possible to analyze the actually observed (phenotypic) item data rather than a sum score by simultaneously estimating the genetic model and an item response theory (IRT) model. In the proposed model, the estimation of genotype by environment interaction is based on an alternative parametrization that is uniquely identified and therefore to be preferred over standard parametrizations. A simulation study shows good performance of our method compared to analyzing sum scores in terms of bias. Next, we analyzed data of 2,110 12-year-old Dutch twin pairs on mathematical ability. Genetic models were evaluated and genetic and environmental variance components estimated as a function of a family's socio-economic status (SES). Results suggested that common environmental influences are less important in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in families with a high SES than in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in twin pairs with a low or average SES.

Surround-Masking Affects Visual Estimation Ability

PubMed Central

Jastrzebski, Nicola R.; Hugrass, Laila E.; Crewther, Sheila G.; Crewther, David P.

2017-01-01

Visual estimation of numerosity involves the discrimination of magnitude between two distributions or perceptual sets that vary in number of elements. How performance on such estimation depends on peripheral sensory stimulation is unclear, even in typically developing adults. Here, we varied the central and surround contrast of stimuli that comprised a visual estimation task in order to determine whether mechanisms involved with the removal of unessential visual input functionally contributes toward number acuity. The visual estimation judgments of typically developed adults were significantly impaired for high but not low contrast surround stimulus conditions. The center and surround contrasts of the stimuli also differentially affected the accuracy of numerosity estimation depending on whether fewer or more dots were presented. Remarkably, observers demonstrated the highest mean percentage accuracy across stimulus conditions in the discrimination of more elements when the surround contrast was low and the background luminance of the central region containing the elements was dark (black center). Conversely, accuracy was severely impaired during the discrimination of fewer elements when the surround contrast was high and the background luminance of the central region was mid level (gray center). These findings suggest that estimation ability is functionally related to the quality of low-order filtration of unessential visual information. These surround masking results may help understanding of the poor visual estimation ability commonly observed in developmental dyscalculia. PMID:28360845

Fluctuating functions related to quality of life in advanced Parkinson disease: effects of duodenal levodopa infusion.

PubMed

Isacson, D; Bingefors, K; Kristiansen, I S; Nyholm, D

2008-12-01

To assess fluctuations in quality of life (QoL) and motor performance in patients with advanced Parkinson disease (PD) treated with continuous daytime duodenal levodopa/carbidopa infusion or conventional therapy. Of 18 patients completing a 6-week trial (DIREQT), 12 were followed for up to 6 months and assessed using electronic diaries and the PD Questionnaire-39 (PDQ-39). During the trial and follow-up, major diurnal fluctuations were observed, especially for hyperkinesia, 'off' time, ability to walk and depression. Duodenal infusion was associated with significantly more favourable outcomes compared with conventional treatment for satisfaction with overall functioning, 'off' time and ability to walk, with improved outcomes with PDQ-39. Relative to conventional treatment, infusion therapy may stabilize and significantly improve motor function and patient's QoL. The potential for daily fluctuation in PD symptoms means single measures of treatment effectiveness can result in bias in effect estimates and hence repeated measures are recommended.

Voluntary modulation of anterior cingulate response to negative feedback.

PubMed

Shane, Matthew S; Weywadt, Christina R

2014-01-01

Anterior cingulate and medial frontal cortex (dACC/mFC) response to negative feedback represents the actions of a generalized error-monitoring system critical for the management of goal-directed behavior. Magnitude of dACC/mFC response to negative feedback correlates with levels of post-feedback behavioral change, and with proficiency of operant learning processes. With this in mind, it follows that an ability to alter dACC/mFC response to negative feedback may lead to representative changes in operant learning proficiency. To this end, the present study investigated the extent to which healthy individuals would show modulation of their dACC/mFC response when instructed to try to either maximize or minimize their neural response to the presentation of contingent negative feedback. Participants performed multiple runs of a standard time-estimation task, during which they received feedback regarding their ability to accurately estimate a one-second duration. On Watch runs, participants were simply instructed to try to estimate as closely as possible the one second duration. On Increase and Decrease runs, participants performed the same task, but were instructed to "try to increase [decrease] their brain's response every time they received negative feedback". Results indicated that participants showed changes in dACC/mFC response under these differing instructional conditions: dACC/mFC activity following negative feedback was higher in the Increase condition, and dACC activity trended lower in the Decrease condition, compared to the Watch condition. Moreover, dACC activity correlated with post-feedback performance adjustments, and these adjustments were highest in the Increase condition. Potential implications for neuromodulation and facilitated learning are discussed.

Self-Estimation of Blood Alcohol Concentration: A Review

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth R.; Liguori, Anthony

2013-01-01

This article reviews the history of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) estimation training, which trains drinkers to discriminate distinct BAC levels and thus avoid excessive alcohol consumption. BAC estimation training typically combines education concerning alcohol metabolism with attention to subjective internal cues associated with specific concentrations. Estimation training was originally conceived as a component of controlled drinking programs. However, dependent drinkers were unsuccessful in BAC estimation, likely due to extreme tolerance. In contrast, moderate drinkers successfully acquired this ability. A subsequent line of research translated laboratory estimation studies to naturalistic settings by studying large samples of drinkers in their preferred drinking environments. Thus far, naturalistic studies have provided mixed results regarding the most effective form of BAC feedback. BAC estimation training is important because it imparts an ability to perceive individualized impairment that may be present below the legal limit for driving. Consequently, the training can be a useful component for moderate drinkers in drunk driving prevention programs. PMID:23380489

Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.

2016-01-01

Efficient and responsible management of water resources relies on accurate streamflow records. However, many watersheds are ungaged, limiting the ability to assess and understand local hydrology. Several tools have been developed to alleviate this data scarcity, but few provide continuous daily streamflow records at individual streamgages within an entire region. Building on the history of hydrologic mapping, ordinary kriging was extended to predict daily streamflow time series on a regional basis. Pooling parameters to estimate a single, time-invariant characterization of spatial semivariance structure is shown to produce accurate reproduction of streamflow. This approach is contrasted with a time-varying series of variograms, representing the temporal evolution and behavior of the spatial semivariance structure. Furthermore, the ordinary kriging approach is shown to produce more accurate time series than more common, single-index hydrologic transfers. A comparison between topological kriging and ordinary kriging is less definitive, showing the ordinary kriging approach to be significantly inferior in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies while maintaining significantly superior performance measured by root mean squared errors. Given the similarity of performance and the computational efficiency of ordinary kriging, it is concluded that ordinary kriging is useful for first-order approximation of daily streamflow time series in ungaged watersheds.

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

Transient Stability Output Margin Estimation Based on Energy Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miwa, Natsuki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

In this paper, a new method of estimating critical generation margin (CGM) in power systems is proposed from the viewpoint of transient stability diagnostic. The proposed method has the capability to directly compute the stability limit output for a given contingency based on transient energy function method (TEF). Since CGM can be directly obtained by the limit output using estimated P-θ curves and is easy to understand, it is more useful rather than conventional critical clearing time (CCT) of energy function method. The proposed method can also estimate CGM as its negative value that means unstable in present load profile, then negative CGM can be directly utilized as generator output restriction. The proposed method is verified its accuracy and fast solution ability by applying to simple 3-machine model and IEEJ EAST10-machine standard model. Furthermore the useful application to severity ranking of transient stability for a lot of contingency cases is discussed by using CGM.

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

PubMed

Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

2018-01-01

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

(Mis)perception of sleep in insomnia: a puzzle and a resolution.

PubMed

Harvey, Allison G; Tang, Nicole K Y

2012-01-01

Insomnia is prevalent, causing severe distress and impairment. This review focuses on illuminating the puzzling finding that many insomnia patients misperceive their sleep. They overestimate their sleep onset latency (SOL) and underestimate their total sleep time (TST), relative to objective measures. This tendency is ubiquitous (although not universal). Resolving this puzzle has clinical, theoretical, and public health importance. There are implications for assessment, definition, and treatment. Moreover, solving the puzzle creates an opportunity for real-world applications of theories from clinical, perceptual, and social psychology as well as neuroscience. Herein we evaluate 13 possible resolutions to the puzzle. Specifically, we consider the possible contribution, to misperception, of (1) features inherent to the context of sleep (e.g., darkness); (2) the definition of sleep onset, which may lack sensitivity for insomnia patients; (3) insomnia being an exaggerated sleep complaint; (4) psychological distress causing magnification; (5) a deficit in time estimation ability; (6) sleep being misperceived as wake; (7) worry and selective attention toward sleep-related threats; (8) a memory bias influenced by current symptoms and emotions, a confirmation bias/belief bias, or a recall bias linked to the intensity/recency of symptoms; (9) heightened physiological arousal; (10) elevated cortical arousal; (11) the presence of brief awakenings; (12) a fault in neuronal circuitry; and (13) there being 2 insomnia subtypes (one with and one without misperception). The best supported resolutions were misperception of sleep as wake, worry, and brief awakenings. A deficit in time estimation ability was not supported. We conclude by proposing several integrative solutions.

(Mis)Perception of Sleep in Insomnia: A puzzle and a resolution

PubMed Central

Harvey, Allison G.; Tang, Nicole

2011-01-01

Insomnia is prevalent, causing severe distress and impairment. This review focuses on illuminating the puzzling finding that many insomnia patients misperceive their sleep. They overestimate their sleep onset latency (SOL) and underestimate their total sleep time (TST), relative to objective measures. This tendency is ubiquitous (although not universal). Resolving this puzzle has clinical, theoretical, and public health importance. There are implications for assessment, definition, and treatment. Moreover, solving the puzzle creates an opportunity for "real world" applications of theories from clinical, perceptual, and social psychology as well as neuroscience. Herein we evaluate thirteen possible resolutions to the puzzle. Specifically, we consider the possible contribution, to misperception, of: (1) features inherent to the context of sleep (e.g., darkness); (2) the definition of sleep onset which may lack sensitivity for insomnia patients; (3) insomnia being an exaggerated sleep complaint; (4) psychological distress causing magnification; (5) a deficit in time estimation ability; (6) sleep being misperceived as wake; (7) worry and selective attention toward sleep-related threats; (8) a memory bias influenced by current symptoms and emotions, a confirmation bias/belief bias or a recall bias linked to the intensity/recency of symptoms; (9) heightened physiological arousal; (10) elevated cortical arousal; (11) the presence of brief awakenings; (12) a fault in neuronal circuitry; and (13) there being two insomnia subtypes (one with and one without misperception). The best supported resolutions were misperception of sleep as wake, worry, and brief awakenings. A deficit in time estimation ability was not supported. We conclude by proposing several integrative solutions. PMID:21967449

An evaluation of the precision of fin ray, otolith, and scale age determinations for brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stolarski, J.T.; Hartman, K.J.

2008-01-01

The ages of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are typically estimated using scales despite a lack of research documenting the effectiveness of this technique. The use of scales is often preferred because it is nonlethal and is believed to require less effort than alternative methods. To evaluate the relative effectiveness of different age estimation methodologies for brook trout, we measured the precision and processing times of scale, sagittal otolith, and pectoral fin ray age estimation techniques. Three independent readers, age bias plots, coefficients of variation (CV = 100 x SD/mean), and percent agreement (PA) were used to measure within-reader, among-structure bias and within-structure, among-reader precision. Bias was generally minimal; however, the age estimates derived from scales tended to be lower than those derived from otoliths within older (age > 2) cohorts. Otolith, fin ray, and scale age estimates were within 1 year of each other for 95% of the comparisons. The measures of precision for scales (CV = 6.59; PA = 82.30) and otoliths (CV = 7.45; PA = 81.48) suggest higher agreement between these structures than with fin rays (CV = 11.30; PA = 65.84). The mean per-sample processing times were lower for scale (13.88 min) and otolith techniques (12.23 min) than for fin ray techniques (22.68 min). The comparable processing times of scales and otoliths contradict popular belief and are probably a result of the high proportion of regenerated scales within samples and the ability to infer age from whole (as opposed to sectioned) otoliths. This research suggests that while scales produce age estimates rivaling those of otoliths for younger (age > 3) cohorts, they may be biased within older cohorts and therefore should be used with caution. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Evaluation of the information content of long-term wastewater characteristics data in relation to activated sludge model parameters.

PubMed

Alikhani, Jamal; Takacs, Imre; Al-Omari, Ahmed; Murthy, Sudhir; Massoudieh, Arash

2017-03-01

A parameter estimation framework was used to evaluate the ability of observed data from a full-scale nitrification-denitrification bioreactor to reduce the uncertainty associated with the bio-kinetic and stoichiometric parameters of an activated sludge model (ASM). Samples collected over a period of 150 days from the effluent as well as from the reactor tanks were used. A hybrid genetic algorithm and Bayesian inference were used to perform deterministic and parameter estimations, respectively. The main goal was to assess the ability of the data to obtain reliable parameter estimates for a modified version of the ASM. The modified ASM model includes methylotrophic processes which play the main role in methanol-fed denitrification. Sensitivity analysis was also used to explain the ability of the data to provide information about each of the parameters. The results showed that the uncertainty in the estimates of the most sensitive parameters (including growth rate, decay rate, and yield coefficients) decreased with respect to the prior information.

Does feeling respected influence return to work? Cross-sectional study on sick-listed patients' experiences of encounters with social insurance office staff.

PubMed

Lynöe, Niels; Wessel, Maja; Olsson, Daniel; Alexanderson, Kristina; Helgesson, Gert

2013-03-23

Previous research shows that how patients perceive encounters with healthcare staff may affect their health and self-estimated ability to return to work. The aim of the present study was to explore long-term sick-listed patients' encounters with social insurance office staff and the impact of these encounters on self-estimated ability to return to work. A random sample of long-term sick-listed patients (n = 10,042) received a questionnaire containing questions about their experiences of positive and negative encounters and item lists specifying such experiences. Respondents were also asked whether the encounters made them feel respected or wronged and how they estimated the effect of these encounters on their ability to return to work. Statistical analysis was conducted using 95% confidence intervals (CI) for proportions, and attributable risk (AR) with 95% CI. The response rate was 58%. Encounter items strongly associated with feeling respected were, among others: listened to me, believed me, and answered my questions. Encounter items strongly associated with feeling wronged were, among others: did not believe me, doubted my condition, and questioned my motivation to work. Positive encounters facilitated patients' self-estimated ability to return to work [26.9% (CI: 22.1-31.7)]. This effect was significantly increased if the patients also felt respected [49.3% (CI: 47.5-51.1)]. Negative encounters impeded self-estimated ability to return to work [29.1% (CI: 24.6-33.6)]; when also feeling wronged return to work was significantly further impeded [51.3% (CI: 47.1-55.5)]. Long-term sick-listed patients find that their self-reported ability to return to work is affected by positive and negative encounters with social insurance office staff. This effect is further enhanced by feeling respected or wronged, respectively.

Students' tripartite efficacy beliefs in high school physical education: within- and cross-domain relations with motivational processes and leisure-time physical activity.

PubMed

Jackson, Ben; Whipp, Peter R; Chua, K L Peter; Dimmock, James A; Hagger, Martin S

2013-02-01

Within instructional settings, individuals form relational efficacy appraisals that complement their self-efficacy beliefs. In high school physical education (PE), for instance, students develop a level of confidence in their teacher's capabilities, as well as estimating how confident they think their teacher is in their (i.e., the students') ability. Grounded in existing transcontextual work, we examined the motivational pathways through which students' relational efficacy and self-efficacy beliefs in PE were predictive of their leisure-time physical activity. Singaporean students (N = 990; age M = 13.95, SD = 1.02) completed instruments assessing efficacy beliefs, perceptions of teacher relatedness support, and autonomous motivation toward PE, and 2 weeks later they reported their motivation toward, and engagement in, leisure-time physical activity. Structural equation modeling revealed that students reported stronger other-efficacy and RISE beliefs when they felt that their teacher created a highly relatedness-supportive environment. In turn, their relational efficacy beliefs (a) supported their confidence in their own ability, (b) directly and indirectly predicted more autonomous motives for participation in PE, and (c) displayed prospective transcontextual effects in relation to leisure-time variables. By emphasizing the adaptive motivational effects associated with the tripartite constructs, these findings highlight novel pathways linking students' efficacy perceptions with leisure-time outcomes.

Signal detection theory and vestibular perception: III. Estimating unbiased fit parameters for psychometric functions.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Shomesh E; Merfeld, Daniel M

2013-03-01

Psychophysics generally relies on estimating a subject's ability to perform a specific task as a function of an observed stimulus. For threshold studies, the fitted functions are called psychometric functions. While fitting psychometric functions to data acquired using adaptive sampling procedures (e.g., "staircase" procedures), investigators have encountered a bias in the spread ("slope" or "threshold") parameter that has been attributed to the serial dependency of the adaptive data. Using simulations, we confirm this bias for cumulative Gaussian parametric maximum likelihood fits on data collected via adaptive sampling procedures, and then present a bias-reduced maximum likelihood fit that substantially reduces the bias without reducing the precision of the spread parameter estimate and without reducing the accuracy or precision of the other fit parameters. As a separate topic, we explain how to implement this bias reduction technique using generalized linear model fits as well as other numeric maximum likelihood techniques such as the Nelder-Mead simplex. We then provide a comparison of the iterative bootstrap and observed information matrix techniques for estimating parameter fit variance from adaptive sampling procedure data sets. The iterative bootstrap technique is shown to be slightly more accurate; however, the observed information technique executes in a small fraction (0.005 %) of the time required by the iterative bootstrap technique, which is an advantage when a real-time estimate of parameter fit variance is required.

Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

2012-04-01

The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the phenomenon which shows the relationship between the input and output parameters. This study provided new alternatives for solar radiation estimation based on temperatures.

Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using Satellite and Climate Model Data over Southwestern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuejun; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai

Real-time monitoring and predicting drought development with several months in advance is of critical importance for drought risk adaptation and mitigation. In this paper, we present a drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over Southwest China (SW). The satellite precipitation data are used to force VIC model for near real-time estimate of land surface hydrologic conditions. As initialized with satellite-aided monitoring, the climate model-based forecast (CFSv2_VIC) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)-based forecast (ESP_VIC) are both performed and evaluated through their ability in reproducing the evolution of the 2009/2010 severe drought overmore » SW. The results show that the satellite-aided monitoring is able to provide reasonable estimate of forecast initial conditions (ICs) in a real-time manner. Both of CFSv2_VIC and ESP_VIC exhibit comparable performance against the observation-based estimates for the first month, whereas the predictive skill largely drops beyond 1-month. Compared to ESP_VIC, CFSv2_VIC shows better performance as indicated by the smaller ensemble range. This study highlights the value of this operational framework in generating near real-time ICs and giving a reliable prediction with 1-month ahead, which has great implications for drought risk assessment, preparation and relief.« less

Imaging dipole flow sources using an artificial lateral-line system made of biomimetic hair flow sensors

PubMed Central

Dagamseh, Ahmad; Wiegerink, Remco; Lammerink, Theo; Krijnen, Gijs

2013-01-01

In Nature, fish have the ability to localize prey, school, navigate, etc., using the lateral-line organ. Artificial hair flow sensors arranged in a linear array shape (inspired by the lateral-line system (LSS) in fish) have been applied to measure airflow patterns at the sensor positions. Here, we take advantage of both biomimetic artificial hair-based flow sensors arranged as LSS and beamforming techniques to demonstrate dipole-source localization in air. Modelling and measurement results show the artificial lateral-line ability to image the position of dipole sources accurately with estimation error of less than 0.14 times the array length. This opens up possibilities for flow-based, near-field environment mapping that can be beneficial to, for example, biologists and robot guidance applications. PMID:23594816

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

4D ERT-based calibration and prediction of biostimulant induced changes in fluid conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. C.; Versteeg, R. J.; Day-Lewis, F. D.; Major, W. R.; Wright, K. E.

2008-12-01

In-situ bioremediation is an emerging and cost-effective method of removing organic contaminants from groundwater. The performance of bioremedial systems depends on the adequate delivery and distribution of biostimulants to contaminated zones. Monitoring the distribution of biostimulants using monitoring wells is expensive, time consuming, and provides inadequate information between sampling wells. We discuss a Hydrogeophysical Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) deployed to monitor bioremediation efforts at a TCE-contaminated Superfund site in Brandywine MD. The HPMS enables autonomous electrical geophysical data acquisition, processing, quality-assurance/quality-control, and inversion. Our objective is to demonstrate the feasibility and cost effectiveness of the HPMS to provide near real-time information on the spatiotemporal behavior of injected biostimulants. As a first step, we use time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to estimate changes in bulk conductivity caused by the injectate. We demonstrate how ERT-based bulk conductivity estimates can be calibrated with a small number of fluid conductivity measurements to produce ERT-based estimates of fluid conductivity. The calibration procedure addresses the spatially variable resolution of the ERT tomograms. To test the validity of these estimates, we used the ERT results to predict the fluid conductivity at tens of points prior to field sampling of fluid conductivity at the same points. The comparison of ERT-predicted vs. observed fluid conductivity displays a high degree of correlation (correlation coefficient over 0.8), and demonstrates the ability of the HPMS to estimate the four-dimensional (4D) distribution of fluid conductivity caused by the biostimulant injection.

Evaluating rainfall kinetic energy - intensity relationships with observed disdrometric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Begueria, Santiago; Latorre, Borja

2016-04-01

Rainfall kinetic energy is required for determining erosivity, the ability of rainfall to detach soil particles and initiate erosion. Its determination relay on the use of disdrometers, i.e. devices capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. In the absence of such devices, rainfall kinetic energy is usually estimated with empirical expressions relating rainfall energy and intensity. We evaluated the performance of 14 rainfall energy equations in estimating one-minute rainfall energy and event total energy, in comparison with observed data from 821 rainfall episodes (more than 100 thousand one-minute observations) by means of an optical disdrometer. In addition, two sources of bias when using such relationships were evaluated: i) the influence of using theoretical terminal raindrop fall velocities instead of measured values; and ii) the influence of time aggregation (rainfall intensity data every 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minutes). Empirical relationships did a relatively good job when complete events were considered (R2 > 0.82), but offered poorer results for within-event (one-minute resolution) variation. Also, systematic biases where large for many equations. When raindrop size distribution was known, estimating the terminal fall velocities by empirical laws produced good results even at fine time resolution. The influence of time aggregation was very high in the estimated kinetic energy, although linear scaling may allow empirical correction. This results stress the importance of considering all these effects when rainfall energy needs to be estimated from more standard precipitation records. , and recommends the use of disdrometer data to locally determine rainfall kinetic energy.

Time-to-contact estimation errors among older drivers with useful field of view impairments.

PubMed

Rusch, Michelle L; Schall, Mark C; Lee, John D; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Edwards, Samantha V; Rizzo, Matthew

2016-10-01

Previous research indicates that useful field of view (UFOV) decline affects older driver performance. In particular, elderly drivers have difficulty estimating oncoming vehicle time-to-contact (TTC). The objective of this study was to evaluate how UFOV impairments affect TTC estimates in elderly drivers deciding when to make a left turn across oncoming traffic. TTC estimates were obtained from 64 middle-aged (n=17, age=46±6years) and older (n=37, age=75±6years) licensed drivers with a range of UFOV abilities using interactive scenarios in a fixed-base driving simulator. Each driver was situated in an intersection to turn left across oncoming traffic approaching and disappearing at differing distances (1.5, 3, or 5s) and speeds (45, 55, or 65mph). Drivers judged when each oncoming vehicle would collide with them if they were to turn left. Findings showed that TTC estimates across all drivers, on average, were most accurate for oncoming vehicles travelling at the highest velocities and least accurate for those travelling at the slowest velocities. Drivers with the worst UFOV scores had the least accurate TTC estimates, especially for slower oncoming vehicles. Results suggest age-related UFOV decline impairs older driver judgment of TTC with oncoming vehicles in safety-critical left-turn situations. Our results are compatible with national statistics on older driver crash proclivity at intersections. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and dynamics of the spatial distribution of an electron localized at a metal-dielectric interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezel, Ilya; Gaffney, Kelly J.; Garrett-Roe, Sean; Liu, Simon H.; Miller, André D.; Szymanski, Paul; Harris, Charles B.

2004-01-01

The ability of time- and angle-resolved two-photon photoemission to estimate the size distribution of electron localization in the plane of a metal-adsorbate interface is discussed. It is shown that the width of angular distribution of the photoelectric current is inversely proportional to the electron localization size within the most common approximations in the description of image potential states. The localization of the n=1 image potential state for two monolayers of butyronitrile on Ag(111) is used as an example. For the delocalized n=1 state, the shape of the signal amplitude as a function of momentum parallel to the surface changes rapidly with time, indicating efficient intraband relaxation on a 100 fs time scale. For the localized state, little change was observed. The latter is related to the constant size distribution of electron localization, which is estimated to be a Gaussian with a 15±4 Å full width at half maximum in the plane of the interface. A simple model was used to study the effect of a weak localization potential on the overall width of the angular distribution of the photoemitted electrons, which exhibited little sensitivity to the details of the potential. This substantiates the validity of the localization size estimate.

Assessing the sampling strategy in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margirier, Félix; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Heslop, Emma; L'Hévéder, Blandine; Arsouze, Thomas; Houpert, Loic; Mortier, Laurent

2017-04-01

The deployment of numerous autonomous platforms (gliders, argo floats, moorings) added to the repeated ship cruises in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea account for a considerable data coverage of the area through the past 10 years. In this study, we analyse the in-situ observations' ability to assess for the changes in the Northwester Mediterranean basin water masses properties over time. Comparing the observed time series for the different regions and different water masses to that of a glider simulator in the NEMO-Med12 model, we estimate both the quality of the model and the skill of the in-situ observations in reproducing the evolution of the basin properties.

On-Line Identification of Simulation Examples for Forgetting Methods to Track Time Varying Parameters Using the Alternative Covariance Matrix in Matlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachálek, Ján

2011-12-01

The paper compares the abilities of forgetting methods to track time varying parameters of two different simulated models with different types of excitation. The observed parameters in the simulations are the integral sum of the Euclidean norm, deviation of the parameter estimates from their true values and a selected band prediction error count. As supplementary information, we observe the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. In the paper we used a modified method of Regularized Exponential Forgetting with Alternative Covariance Matrix (REFACM) along with Directional Forgetting (DF) and three standard regularized methods.

Methods for estimating dispersal probabilities and related parameters using marked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennetts, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pradel, R.; Lebreton, J.D.; Kitchens, W.M.; Clobert, Jean; Danchin, Etienne; Dhondt, Andre A.; Nichols, James D.

2001-01-01

Deriving valid inferences about the causes and consequences of dispersal from empirical studies depends largely on our ability reliably to estimate parameters associated with dispersal. Here, we present a review of the methods available for estimating dispersal and related parameters using marked individuals. We emphasize methods that place dispersal in a probabilistic framework. In this context, we define a dispersal event as a movement of a specified distance or from one predefined patch to another, the magnitude of the distance or the definition of a `patch? depending on the ecological or evolutionary question(s) being addressed. We have organized the chapter based on four general classes of data for animals that are captured, marked, and released alive: (1) recovery data, in which animals are recovered dead at a subsequent time, (2) recapture/resighting data, in which animals are either recaptured or resighted alive on subsequent sampling occasions, (3) known-status data, in which marked animals are reobserved alive or dead at specified times with probability 1.0, and (4) combined data, in which data are of more than one type (e.g., live recapture and ring recovery). For each data type, we discuss the data required, the estimation techniques, and the types of questions that might be addressed from studies conducted at single and multiple sites.

MOVES (MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION SIMULATOR) MODEL ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A computer model, intended to eventually replace the MOBILE model and to incorporate the NONROAD model, that will provide the ability to estimate criteria and toxic air pollutant emission factors and emission inventories that are specific to the areas and time periods of interest, at scales ranging from local to national. Development of a new emission factor and inventory model for mobile source emissions. The model will be used by air pollution modelers within EPA, and at the State and local levels.

Properties of fiber reinforced plastics about static and dynamic loadings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudinov, Vladimir V.; Korneeva, Natalia V.

2016-05-01

A method for investigation of impact toughness of anisotropic polymer composite materials (reinforced plastics) with the help of CM model sample in the configuration of microplastic (micro plastic) and impact pendulum-type testing machine under static and dynamic loadings has been developed. The method is called "Break by Impact" (Impact Break IB). The estimation of impact resistance CFRP by this method showed that an increase in loading velocity ~104 times the largest changes occurs in impact toughness and deformation ability of a material.

Why do we differ in number sense? Evidence from a genetically sensitive investigation☆

PubMed Central

Tosto, M.G.; Petrill, S.A.; Halberda, J.; Trzaskowski, M.; Tikhomirova, T.N.; Bogdanova, O.Y.; Ly, R.; Wilmer, J.B.; Naiman, D.Q.; Germine, L.; Plomin, R.; Kovas, Y.

2014-01-01

Basic intellectual abilities of quantity and numerosity estimation have been detected across animal species. Such abilities are referred to as ‘number sense’. For human species, individual differences in number sense are detectable early in life, persist in later development, and relate to general intelligence. The origins of these individual differences are unknown. To address this question, we conducted the first large-scale genetically sensitive investigation of number sense, assessing numerosity discrimination abilities in 837 pairs of monozygotic and 1422 pairs of dizygotic 16-year-old twin pairs. Univariate genetic analysis of the twin data revealed that number sense is modestly heritable (32%), with individual differences being largely explained by non-shared environmental influences (68%) and no contribution from shared environmental factors. Sex-Limitation model fitting revealed no differences between males and females in the etiology of individual differences in number sense abilities. We also carried out Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) that estimates the population variance explained by additive effects of DNA differences among unrelated individuals. For 1118 unrelated individuals in our sample with genotyping information on 1.7 million DNA markers, GCTA estimated zero heritability for number sense, unlike other cognitive abilities in the same twin study where the GCTA heritability estimates were about 25%. The low heritability of number sense, observed in this study, is consistent with the directional selection explanation whereby additive genetic variance for evolutionary important traits is reduced. PMID:24696527

Preserved, deteriorated, and premorbidly impaired patterns of intellectual ability in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Ammari, Narmeen; Heinrichs, R Walter; Pinnock, Farena; Miles, Ashley A; Muharib, Eva; McDermid Vaz, Stephanie

2014-05-01

The main purpose of this investigation was to identify patterns of intellectual performance in schizophrenia patients suggesting preserved, deteriorated, and premorbidly impaired ability, and to determine clinical, cognitive, and functional correlates of these patterns. We assessed 101 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 80 non-psychiatric control participants. The "preserved" performance pattern was defined by average-range estimated premorbid and current IQ with no evidence of decline (premorbid-current IQ difference <10 points). The "deteriorated" pattern was defined by a difference between estimated premorbid and current IQ estimates of 10 points or more. The premorbidly "impaired" pattern was defined by below average estimated premorbid and current IQ and no evidence of decline greater than 10 points. Preserved and deteriorated patterns in healthy controls were also identified and studied in comparison to patient findings. The groups were compared on demographic, neurocognitive, clinical and functionality variables. Patients with the preserved pattern outperformed those meeting criteria for deteriorated and compromised intellectual ability on a composite measure of neurocognitive ability as well as in terms of functional competence. Patients demonstrating the deteriorated and compromised patterns were equivalent across all measures. However, "preserved" patients failed to show any advantage in terms of community functioning and demonstrated cognitive impairments relative to control participants. Our results suggest that proposed patterns of intellectual decline and stability exist in both the schizophrenia and general populations, but may not hold true across other cognitive abilities and do not translate into differential functional outcome.

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

2015-01-01

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

A pdf-Free Change Detection Test Based on Density Difference Estimation.

PubMed

Bu, Li; Alippi, Cesare; Zhao, Dongbin

2018-02-01

The ability to detect online changes in stationarity or time variance in a data stream is a hot research topic with striking implications. In this paper, we propose a novel probability density function-free change detection test, which is based on the least squares density-difference estimation method and operates online on multidimensional inputs. The test does not require any assumption about the underlying data distribution, and is able to operate immediately after having been configured by adopting a reservoir sampling mechanism. Thresholds requested to detect a change are automatically derived once a false positive rate is set by the application designer. Comprehensive experiments validate the effectiveness in detection of the proposed method both in terms of detection promptness and accuracy.

Factors associated with self-estimated work ability and musculoskeletal symptoms among male and female workers in cooled food-processing facilities.

PubMed

Sormunen, Erja; Remes, Jouko; Hassi, Juhani; Pienimäki, Tuomo; Rintamäki, Hannu

2009-07-01

This questionnaire study evaluates how work ability and musculoskeletal symptoms associate with physical work factors and individual characteristics of the workers in cooled food-processing facilities. A total of 1,117 workers (response rate 85%) responded to the study. Poor work ability was significantly associated with longer work duration, experience of draught at the workplace, absence from work due to health reasons, and physical inactivity during free time. The amount of local cooling experienced was significantly associated with the risk for musculoskeletal symptoms in the neck-shoulder region, shoulders, wrists and lower back. Additionally, female gender, longer work duration and poor work ability were associated with the increased prevalence of the symptoms. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms was significantly higher among older employees (40 to 64 yr) than among younger employees (18 to 39 yr) for all regions except wrists. Cold discomfort and unpleasant sensations due to the physical factors of work were significantly more common among females than males. The results showed that, in addition to individual characteristics of workers, factors related to work in a cool environment (experience of draught and cooling and long exposure to cold) are associated with poor work ability and musculoskeletal symptoms.

Strategies for Estimating Discrete Quantities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crites, Terry W.

1993-01-01

Describes the benchmark and decomposition-recomposition estimation strategies and presents five techniques to develop students' estimation ability. Suggests situations involving quantities of candy and popcorn in which the teacher can model those strategies for the students. (MDH)

Head pose estimation in computer vision: a survey.

PubMed

Murphy-Chutorian, Erik; Trivedi, Mohan Manubhai

2009-04-01

The capacity to estimate the head pose of another person is a common human ability that presents a unique challenge for computer vision systems. Compared to face detection and recognition, which have been the primary foci of face-related vision research, identity-invariant head pose estimation has fewer rigorously evaluated systems or generic solutions. In this paper, we discuss the inherent difficulties in head pose estimation and present an organized survey describing the evolution of the field. Our discussion focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of each approach and spans 90 of the most innovative and characteristic papers that have been published on this topic. We compare these systems by focusing on their ability to estimate coarse and fine head pose, highlighting approaches that are well suited for unconstrained environments.

Biopsychosocial characteristics of community-dwelling older adults with limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile.

PubMed

Hardy, Susan E; McGurl, David J; Studenski, Stephanie A; Degenholtz, Howard B

2010-03-01

To establish nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of self-reported difficulty and inability of older adults to walk one-quarter of a mile and to identify the characteristics independently associated with difficulty or inability to walk one-quarter of a mile. Cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2003 Cost and Use Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Community. Nine thousand five hundred sixty-three community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older, representing an estimated total population of 34.2 million older adults. Self-reported ability to walk one-quarter of a mile, sociodemographics, chronic conditions, body mass index, smoking, functional status. In 2003, an estimated 9.5 million older Medicare beneficiaries had difficulty walking one-quarter of a mile, and 5.9 million were unable to do so. Of the 20.2 million older adults with no difficulty in activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), an estimated 4.3 million (21%) had limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile. Having difficulty or being unable to walk one-quarter of a mile was independently associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic ethnicity, lower educational level, Medicaid entitlement, most chronic medical conditions, current smoking, and being overweight or obese. Almost half of older adults and 20% of those reporting no ADL or IADL limitations report limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile. For functionally independent older adults, reported ability to walk one-quarter of a mile can identify vulnerable older adults with greater medical problems and fewer resources and may be a valuable clinical marker in planning their care. Future work is needed to determine the association between ability to walk one-quarter of a mile walk and subsequent functional decline and healthcare use.

Estimation of velocity structure around a natural gas reservoir at Yufutsu, Japan, by microtremor survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiraishi, H.; Asanuma, H.; Tezuka, K.

2010-12-01

Seismic reflection survey has been commonly used for exploration and time-lapse monitoring of oil/gas resources. Seismic reflection images typically have reasonable reliability and resolution for commercial production. However, cost consideration sometimes avoids deployment of widely distributed array or repeating survey in cases of time lapse monitoring or exploration of small-scale reservoir. Hence, technologies to estimate structures and physical properties around the reservoir with limited cost would be effectively used. Microtremor survey method (MSM) has an ability to realize long-term monitoring of reservoir with low cost, because this technique has a passive nature and minimum numbers of the monitoring station is four. MSM has been mainly used for earthquake disaster prevention, because velocity structure of S-wave is directly estimated from velocity dispersion of the Rayleigh wave. The authors experimentally investigated feasibility of the MSM survey for exploration of oil/gas reservoir. The field measurement was carried out around natural gas reservoir at Yufutsu, Hokkaido, Japan. Four types of arrays with array radii of 30m, 100m, 300m and 600m are deployed in each area. Dispersion curves of the velocity of Rayleigh wave were estimated from observed microtremors, and S-wave velocity structures were estimated by an inverse analysis of the dispersion curves with genetic algorism (GA). The estimated velocity structures showed good consistency with one dimensional velocity structure by previous reflection surveys up to 4-5 km. We also found from the field experiment that a data of 40min is effective to estimate the velocity structure even the seismometers are deployed along roads with heavy traffic.

The Confounding Effects of Ability, Item Difficulty, and Content Balance within Multiple Dimensions on the Estimation of Unidimensional Thetas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matlock, Ki Lynn

2013-01-01

When test forms that have equal total test difficulty and number of items vary in difficulty and length within sub-content areas, an examinee's estimated score may vary across equivalent forms, depending on how well his or her true ability in each sub-content area aligns with the difficulty of items and number of items within these areas.…

The Utility of Selection for Military and Civilian Jobs

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-01

parsimonious use of information; the relative ease in making threshold (break-even) judgments compared to estimating actual SDy values higher than a... threshold value, even though judges are unlikely to agree on the exact point estimate for the SDy parameter; and greater understanding of how even small...ability, spatial ability, introversion , anxiety) considered to vary or differ across individuals. A construct (sometimes called a latent variable) is not

One leg lateral jumps - a new test for team players evaluation.

PubMed

Taboga, P; Sepulcri, L; Lazzer, S; De Conti, D; Di Prampero, P E

2013-10-01

We assessed the subject's capacity to accelerate himself laterally in monopodalic support, a crucial ability in several team sports, on 22 athletes, during series of 10 subsequent jumps, between two force platforms at predetermined distance. Vertical and horizontal accelerations of the Centre of Mass (CM), contact and flight times were measured by means of force platforms and the Optojump-System®. Individual mean horizontal and vertical powers and their sum (total power) ranged between 7 and 14.5 W/kg. "Push angle", i.e., the angle with the horizontal along which the vectorial sum of all forces is aligned, was calculated from the ratio between vertical and horizontal accelerations: it varied between 38.7 and 49.4 deg and was taken to express the subject technical ability. The horizontal acceleration of CM, indirectly estimated as a function of subject's mass, contact and flight times, was essentially equal to that obtained from force platforms data. Since the vertical displacement can be easily obtained from flight and contact times, this allowed us to assess the Push angle from Optojump data only. The power developed during a standard vertical jump was rather highly correlated with that developed during the lateral jumps for right (R=0.80, N.=12) and left limb (R=0.72, N.=12), but not with the push angle for right (R=0.31, N.=12) and left limb (R=-0.43, N.=12). Hence standard tests cannot be utilised to assess technical ability. Lateral jumps test allows the coach to evaluate separately maximal muscular power and technical ability of the athlete, thus appropriately directing the training program: the optimum, for a team-sport player being high power and low push-angle, that is: being "powerful" and "efficient".

Genetic and environmental contributions to the associations between intraindividual variability in reaction time and cognitive function.

PubMed

Finkel, Deborah; Pedersen, Nancy L

2014-01-01

Intraindividual variability (IIV) in reaction time has been related to cognitive decline, but questions remain about the nature of this relationship. Mean and range in movement and decision time for simple reaction time were available from 241 individuals aged 51-86 years at the fifth testing wave of the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging. Cognitive performance on four factors was also available: verbal, spatial, memory, and speed. Analyses indicated that range in reaction time could be used as an indicator of IIV. Heritability estimates were 35% for mean reaction and 20% for range in reaction. Multivariate analysis indicated that the genetic variance on the memory, speed, and spatial factors is shared with genetic variance for mean or range in reaction time. IIV shares significant genetic variance with fluid ability in late adulthood, over and above and genetic variance shared with mean reaction time.

Effects of Estimation Bias on Multiple-Category Classification with an IRT-Based Adaptive Classification Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.

2006-01-01

The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

Genome-wide estimates of inbreeding in unrelated individuals and their association with cognitive ability.

PubMed

Power, Robert A; Nagoshi, Craig; DeFries, John C; Plomin, Robert

2014-03-01

The consequence of reduced cognitive ability from inbreeding has long been investigated, mainly restricted to cousin-cousin marriages. Molecular genetic techniques now allow us to test the relationship between increased ancestral inbreeding and cognitive ability in a population of traditionally unrelated individuals. In a representative UK sample of 2329 individuals, we used genome-wide SNP data to estimate the percentage of the genome covered by runs of homozygous SNPs (ROH). This was tested for association with general cognitive ability, as well as measures of verbal and non-verbal ability. Further, association was tested between these traits and specific ROH. Burden of ROH was not associated with cognitive ability after correction for multiple testing, although burden of ROH was nominally associated with increased non-verbal cognitive ability (P=0.03). Moreover, although no individual ROH was significantly associated with cognitive ability, there was a significant bias towards increased cognitive ability in carriers of ROH (P=0.002). A potential explanation for these results is increased positive assortative mating in spouses with higher cognitive ability, although we found no evidence in support of this hypothesis in a separate sample. Reduced minor allele frequency across the genome was associated with higher cognitive ability, which could contribute to an apparent increase in ROH. This may reflect minor alleles being more likely to be deleterious.

Genome-wide estimates of inbreeding in unrelated individuals and their association with cognitive ability

PubMed Central

Power, Robert A; Nagoshi, Craig; DeFries, John C; Donnelly, Peter; Barroso, Ines; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Bramon, Elvira; Brown, Matthew A; Casas, Juan P; Corvin, Aiden; Deloukas, Panos; Duncanson, Audrey; Jankowski, Janusz; Markus, Hugh S; Mathew, Christopher G; Palmer, Colin NA; Plomin, Robert; Rautanen, Anna; Sawcer, Stephen J; Trembath, Richard C; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Wood, Nicholas W; Spencer, Chris C A; Band, Gavin; Bellenguez, Céline; Freeman, Colin; Hellenthal, Garrett; Giannoulatou, Eleni; Pirinen, Matti; Pearson, Richard; Strange, Amy; Su, Zhan; Vukcevic, Damjan; Donnelly, Peter; Langford, Cordelia; Hunt, Sarah E; Edkins, Sarah; Gwilliam, Rhian; Blackburn, Hannah; Bumpstead, Suzannah J; Dronov, Serge; Gillman, Matthew; Gray, Emma; Hammond, Naomi; Jayakumar, Alagurevathi; McCann, Owen T; Liddle, Jennifer; Potter, Simon C; Ravindrarajah, Radhi; Ricketts, Michelle; Waller, Matthew; Weston, Paul; Widaa, Sara; Whittaker, Pamela; Barroso, Ines; Deloukas, Panos; Mathew, Christopher G; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Brown, Matthew A; Corvin, Aiden; Spencer, Chris C A; Plomin, Robert

2014-01-01

The consequence of reduced cognitive ability from inbreeding has long been investigated, mainly restricted to cousin–cousin marriages. Molecular genetic techniques now allow us to test the relationship between increased ancestral inbreeding and cognitive ability in a population of traditionally unrelated individuals. In a representative UK sample of 2329 individuals, we used genome-wide SNP data to estimate the percentage of the genome covered by runs of homozygous SNPs (ROH). This was tested for association with general cognitive ability, as well as measures of verbal and non-verbal ability. Further, association was tested between these traits and specific ROH. Burden of ROH was not associated with cognitive ability after correction for multiple testing, although burden of ROH was nominally associated with increased non-verbal cognitive ability (P=0.03). Moreover, although no individual ROH was significantly associated with cognitive ability, there was a significant bias towards increased cognitive ability in carriers of ROH (P=0.002). A potential explanation for these results is increased positive assortative mating in spouses with higher cognitive ability, although we found no evidence in support of this hypothesis in a separate sample. Reduced minor allele frequency across the genome was associated with higher cognitive ability, which could contribute to an apparent increase in ROH. This may reflect minor alleles being more likely to be deleterious. PMID:23860046

Time Intervals in Sequence Sampling, Not Data Modifications, Have a Major Impact on Estimates of HIV Escape Rates

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The ability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to avoid recognition by humoral and cellular immunity (viral escape) is well-documented, but the strength of the immune response needed to cause such a viral escape remains poorly quantified. Several previous studies observed a more rapid escape of HIV from CD8 T cell responses in the acute phase of infection compared to chronic infection. The rate of HIV escape was estimated with the help of simple mathematical models, and results were interpreted to suggest that CD8 T cell responses causing escape in acute HIV infection may be more efficient at killing virus-infected cells than responses that cause escape in chronic infection, or alternatively, that early escapes occur in epitopes mutations in which there is minimal fitness cost to the virus. However, these conclusions were challenged on several grounds, including linkage and interference of multiple escape mutations due to a low population size and because of potential issues associated with modifying the data to estimate escape rates. Here we use a sampling method which does not require data modification to show that previous results on the decline of the viral escape rate with time since infection remain unchanged. However, using this method we also show that estimates of the escape rate are highly sensitive to the time interval between measurements, with longer intervals biasing estimates of the escape rate downwards. Our results thus suggest that data modifications for early and late escapes were not the primary reason for the observed decline in the escape rate with time since infection. However, longer sampling periods for escapes in chronic infection strongly influence estimates of the escape rate. More frequent sampling of viral sequences in chronic infection may improve our understanding of factors influencing the rate of HIV escape from CD8 T cell responses. PMID:29495443

Time Intervals in Sequence Sampling, Not Data Modifications, Have a Major Impact on Estimates of HIV Escape Rates.

PubMed

Ganusov, Vitaly V

2018-02-27

The ability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to avoid recognition by humoral and cellular immunity (viral escape) is well-documented, but the strength of the immune response needed to cause such a viral escape remains poorly quantified. Several previous studies observed a more rapid escape of HIV from CD8 T cell responses in the acute phase of infection compared to chronic infection. The rate of HIV escape was estimated with the help of simple mathematical models, and results were interpreted to suggest that CD8 T cell responses causing escape in acute HIV infection may be more efficient at killing virus-infected cells than responses that cause escape in chronic infection, or alternatively, that early escapes occur in epitopes mutations in which there is minimal fitness cost to the virus. However, these conclusions were challenged on several grounds, including linkage and interference of multiple escape mutations due to a low population size and because of potential issues associated with modifying the data to estimate escape rates. Here we use a sampling method which does not require data modification to show that previous results on the decline of the viral escape rate with time since infection remain unchanged. However, using this method we also show that estimates of the escape rate are highly sensitive to the time interval between measurements, with longer intervals biasing estimates of the escape rate downwards. Our results thus suggest that data modifications for early and late escapes were not the primary reason for the observed decline in the escape rate with time since infection. However, longer sampling periods for escapes in chronic infection strongly influence estimates of the escape rate. More frequent sampling of viral sequences in chronic infection may improve our understanding of factors influencing the rate of HIV escape from CD8 T cell responses.

Retrieval of spatially distributed hydrological properties from satellite observations for spatial evaluation of a national water resources model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendiguren González, G.; Stisen, S.; Koch, J.

2016-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

Initial Assessment of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.

2017-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

Improving Our Ability to Evaluate Underlying Mechanisms of Behavioral Onset and Other Event Occurrence Outcomes: A Discrete-Time Survival Mediation Model

PubMed Central

Fairchild, Amanda J.; Abara, Winston E.; Gottschall, Amanda C.; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Prinz, Ronald J.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce and describe a statistical model that researchers can use to evaluate underlying mechanisms of behavioral onset and other event occurrence outcomes. Specifically, the article develops a framework for estimating mediation effects with outcomes measured in discrete-time epochs by integrating the statistical mediation model with discrete-time survival analysis. The methodology has the potential to help strengthen health research by targeting prevention and intervention work more effectively as well as by improving our understanding of discretized periods of risk. The model is applied to an existing longitudinal data set to demonstrate its use, and programming code is provided to facilitate its implementation. PMID:24296470

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saaban, Azizan; Zainudin, Lutfi; Bakar, Mohd Nazari Abu

This paper intends to reveal the ability of the linear interpolation method to predict missing values in solar radiation time series. Reliable dataset is equally tends to complete time series observed dataset. The absence or presence of radiation data alters long-term variation of solar radiation measurement values. Based on that change, the opportunities to provide bias output result for modelling and the validation process is higher. The completeness of the observed variable dataset has significantly important for data analysis. Occurrence the lack of continual and unreliable time series solar radiation data widely spread and become the main problematic issue. However,more » the limited number of research quantity that has carried out to emphasize and gives full attention to estimate missing values in the solar radiation dataset.« less

If looks could heal: Child health and paternal investment.

PubMed

Tracey, Marlon R; Polachek, Solomon W

2018-01-01

Data from the first two waves of the Fragile Family and Child Wellbeing study indicate that infants who look like their father at birth are healthier one year later. The reason is such father-child resemblance induces a father to spend more time engaged in positive parenting. An extra day (per month) of time-investment by a typical visiting father enhances child health by just over 10% of a standard deviation. This estimate is not biased by the effect of child health on father-involvement or omitted maternal ability, thereby eliminating endogeneity biases that plague existing studies. The result has implications regarding the role of a father's time in enhancing child health, especially in fragile families. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A preliminary study on postmortem interval estimation of suffocated rats by GC-MS/MS-based plasma metabolic profiling.

PubMed

Sato, Takako; Zaitsu, Kei; Tsuboi, Kento; Nomura, Masakatsu; Kusano, Maiko; Shima, Noriaki; Abe, Shuntaro; Ishii, Akira; Tsuchihashi, Hitoshi; Suzuki, Koichi

2015-05-01

Estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) is an important goal in judicial autopsy. Although many approaches can estimate PMI through physical findings and biochemical tests, accurate PMI calculation by these conventional methods remains difficult because PMI is readily affected by surrounding conditions, such as ambient temperature and humidity. In this study, Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats (10 weeks) were sacrificed by suffocation, and blood was collected by dissection at various time intervals (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48 h; n = 6) after death. A total of 70 endogenous metabolites were detected in plasma by gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Each time group was separated from each other on the principal component analysis (PCA) score plot, suggesting that the various endogenous metabolites changed with time after death. To prepare a prediction model of a PMI, a partial least squares (or projection to latent structure, PLS) regression model was constructed using the levels of significantly different metabolites determined by variable importance in the projection (VIP) score and the Kruskal-Wallis test (P < 0.05). Because the constructed PLS regression model could successfully predict each PMI, this model was validated with another validation set (n = 3). In conclusion, plasma metabolic profiling demonstrated its ability to successfully estimate PMI under a certain condition. This result can be considered to be the first step for using the metabolomics method in future forensic casework.

Investigation of speed estimation using single loop detectors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-15

The ability to collect or estimate accurate speed information is of great importance to a large number of : Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications. Estimating speeds from the widely used single : inductive loop sensor has been a diffic...

Work-family conflicts and self-reported work ability: cross-sectional findings in women with chronic musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed

Bethge, Matthias; Borngräber, Yvonne

2015-03-18

Under conditions of gender-specific division of paid employment and unpaid childcare and housework, rising employment of women increases the likelihood that they will be faced with work-family conflicts. As recent research indicates, such conflicts might also contribute to musculoskeletal disorders. However, research in patient samples is needed to clarify how important these conflicts are for relevant health-related measures of functioning (e.g., work ability). We therefore examined, in a sample of women with chronic musculoskeletal disorders, the indirect and direct associations between the indicators of work-family conflicts and self-reported work ability as well as whether the direct effects remained significant after adjustment for covariates. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted. Participants were recruited from five rehabilitation centers. Work-family conflicts were assessed by four scales referring to time- and strain-based work interference with family (WIF) and family interference with work (FIW). Self-reported work ability was measured by the Work Ability Index. A confirmatory factor analysis was performed to approve the anticipated four-factor structure of the work-family conflict measure. Direct and indirect associations between work-family conflict indicators and self-reported work ability were examined by path model analysis. Multivariate regression models were performed to calculate adjusted estimators of the direct effects of strain-based WIF and FIW on work ability. The study included 351 employed women. The confirmatory factor analysis provided support for the anticipated four-factor structure of the work-family conflict measure. The path model analysis identified direct effects of both strain-based scales on self-reported work ability. The time-based scales were indirectly associated with work ability via the strain-based scales. Adjusted regression analyses showed that a five-point increase in strain-based WIF or FIW was associated with a four- and two-point decrease in self-reported work ability, respectively. The standardized regression coefficients were β = 0.35 and β = 0.12. Our findings indicate that work-family conflicts are associated with poor work ability in female patients with chronic musculoskeletal disorders. However, longitudinal research is needed to establish a causal relationship. Better compatibility of work and family life might be an environmental facilitator of better rehabilitation outcomes in female patients with musculoskeletal disorders.

Space, time, and the third dimension (model error)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.

1979-01-01

The space-time tradeoff of hydrologic data collection (the ability to substitute spatial coverage for temporal extension of records or vice versa) is controlled jointly by the statistical properties of the phenomena that are being measured and by the model that is used to meld the information sources. The control exerted on the space-time tradeoff by the model and its accompanying errors has seldom been studied explicitly. The technique, known as Network Analyses for Regional Information (NARI), permits such a study of the regional regression model that is used to relate streamflow parameters to the physical and climatic characteristics of the drainage basin.The NARI technique shows that model improvement is a viable and sometimes necessary means of improving regional data collection systems. Model improvement provides an immediate increase in the accuracy of regional parameter estimation and also increases the information potential of future data collection. Model improvement, which can only be measured in a statistical sense, cannot be quantitatively estimated prior to its achievement; thus an attempt to upgrade a particular model entails a certain degree of risk on the part of the hydrologist.

Real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions.

PubMed

Matsubara, Takamitsu; Hyon, Sang-Ho; Morimoto, Jun

2012-01-01

The ability to predict human motion is crucial in several contexts such as human tracking by computer vision and the synthesis of human-like computer graphics. Previous work has focused on off-line processes with well-segmented data; however, many applications such as robotics require real-time control with efficient computation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions to satisfy these requirements. This approach uses a novel generative model to represent a whole-body human motion including rhythmic motion (e.g., walking) and discrete motion (e.g., jumping). The generative model is composed of a low-dimensional state (phase) dynamics and a two-factor observation model, allowing it to capture the diversity of motion styles in humans. A real-time adaptation algorithm was derived to estimate both state variables and style parameter of the model from non-stationary unlabeled sequential observations. Moreover, with a simple modification, the algorithm allows real-time adaptation even from incomplete (partial) observations. Based on the estimated state and style, a future motion sequence can be accurately predicted. In our implementation, it takes less than 15 ms for both adaptation and prediction at each observation. Our real-time stylistic prediction was evaluated for human walking, running, and jumping behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of rostral prefrontal cortex in prospective memory: a voxel-based lesion study.

PubMed

Volle, Emmanuelle; Gonen-Yaacovi, Gil; Costello, Angela de Lacy; Gilbert, Sam J; Burgess, Paul W

2011-07-01

Patients with lesions in rostral prefrontal cortex (PFC) often experience problems in everyday-life situations requiring multitasking. A key cognitive component that is critical in multitasking situations is prospective memory, defined as the ability to carry out an intended action after a delay period filled with unrelated activity. The few functional imaging studies investigating prospective memory have shown consistent activation in both medial and lateral rostral PFC but also in more posterior prefrontal regions and non-frontal regions. The aim of this study was to determine regions that are necessary for prospective memory performance, using the human lesion approach. We designed an experimental paradigm allowing us to assess time-based (remembering to do something at a particular time) and event-based (remembering to do something in a particular situation) prospective memory, using two types of material, words and pictures. Time estimation tasks and tasks controlling for basic attention, inhibition and multiple instructions processing were also administered. We examined brain-behaviour relationships with a voxelwise lesion method in 45 patients with focal brain lesions and 107 control subjects using this paradigm. The results showed that lesions in the right polar prefrontal region (in Brodmann area 10) were specifically associated with a deficit in time-based prospective memory tasks for both words and pictures. This deficit could not be explained by impairments in basic attention, detection, inhibition or multiple instruction processing, and there was also no deficit in event-based prospective memory conditions. In addition to their prospective memory difficulties, these polar prefrontal patients were significantly impaired in time estimation ability compared to other patients. The same region was found to be involved using both words and pictures, suggesting that right rostral PFC plays a material nonspecific role in prospective memory. This is the first lesion study showing that rostral PFC is crucial for time-based prospective memory. The findings suggest that time-based and event-based prospective memory might be supported at least in part by distinct brain regions. Two particularly plausible explanations for the deficit rest upon a possible role for polar prefrontal structures in supporting in time estimation, and/or in retrieving an intention to act. More broadly, the results are consistent with the view that the deficit of rostral patients in multitasking situations might at least in part be explained by a deficit in prospective memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validity of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) for estimating energy and nutrient intake in near real-time.

PubMed

Martin, Corby K; Correa, John B; Han, Hongmei; Allen, H Raymond; Rood, Jennifer C; Champagne, Catherine M; Gunturk, Bahadir K; Bray, George A

2012-04-01

Two studies are reported; a pilot study to demonstrate feasibility followed by a larger validity study. Study 1's objective was to test the effect of two ecological momentary assessment (EMA) approaches that varied in intensity on the validity/accuracy of estimating energy intake (EI) with the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) over 6 days in free-living conditions. When using the RFPM, Smartphones are used to capture images of food selection and plate waste and to send the images to a server for food intake estimation. Consistent with EMA, prompts are sent to the Smartphones reminding participants to capture food images. During Study 1, EI estimated with the RFPM and the gold standard, doubly labeled water (DLW), were compared. Participants were assigned to receive Standard EMA Prompts (n = 24) or Customized Prompts (n = 16) (the latter received more reminders delivered at personalized meal times). The RFPM differed significantly from DLW at estimating EI when Standard (mean ± s.d. = -895 ± 770 kcal/day, P < 0.0001), but not Customized Prompts (-270 ± 748 kcal/day, P = 0.22) were used. Error (EI from the RFPM minus that from DLW) was significantly smaller with Customized vs. Standard Prompts. The objectives of Study 2 included testing the RFPM's ability to accurately estimate EI in free-living adults (N = 50) over 6 days, and energy and nutrient intake in laboratory-based meals. The RFPM did not differ significantly from DLW at estimating free-living EI (-152 ± 694 kcal/day, P = 0.16). During laboratory-based meals, estimating energy and macronutrient intake with the RFPM did not differ significantly compared to directly weighed intake.

Validity of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) for estimating energy and nutrient intake in near real-time

PubMed Central

Martin, C. K.; Correa, J. B.; Han, H.; Allen, H. R.; Rood, J.; Champagne, C. M.; Gunturk, B. K.; Bray, G. A.

2014-01-01

Two studies are reported; a pilot study to demonstrate feasibility followed by a larger validity study. Study 1’s objective was to test the effect of two ecological momentary assessment (EMA) approaches that varied in intensity on the validity/accuracy of estimating energy intake with the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) over six days in free-living conditions. When using the RFPM, Smartphones are used to capture images of food selection and plate waste and to send the images to a server for food intake estimation. Consistent with EMA, prompts are sent to the Smartphones reminding participants to capture food images. During Study 1, energy intake estimated with the RFPM and the gold standard, doubly labeled water (DLW), were compared. Participants were assigned to receive Standard EMA Prompts (n=24) or Customized Prompts (n=16) (the latter received more reminders delivered at personalized meal times). The RFPM differed significantly from DLW at estimating energy intake when Standard (mean±SD = −895±770 kcal/day, p<.0001), but not Customized Prompts (−270±748 kcal/day, p=.22) were used. Error (energy intake from the RFPM minus that from DLW) was significantly smaller with Customized vs. Standard Prompts. The objectives of Study 2 included testing the RFPM’s ability to accurately estimate energy intake in free-living adults (N=50) over six days, and energy and nutrient intake in laboratory-based meals. The RFPM did not differ significantly from DLW at estimating free-living energy intake (−152±694 kcal/day, p=0.16). During laboratory-based meals, estimating energy and macronutrient intake with the RFPM did not differ significantly compared to directly weighed intake. PMID:22134199

A non-parametric automatic blending methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco-Forero, Carlos A.; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Cassiraga, Eduardo F.; Jaime Gómez-Hernández, J.

2009-07-01

Quantitative estimation of rainfall fields has been a crucial objective from early studies of the hydrological applications of weather radar. Previous studies have suggested that flow estimations are improved when radar and rain gauge data are combined to estimate input rainfall fields. This paper reports new research carried out in this field. Classical approaches for the selection and fitting of a theoretical correlogram (or semivariogram) model (needed to apply geostatistical estimators) are avoided in this study. Instead, a non-parametric technique based on FFT is used to obtain two-dimensional positive-definite correlograms directly from radar observations, dealing with both the natural anisotropy and the temporal variation of the spatial structure of the rainfall in the estimated fields. Because these correlation maps can be automatically obtained at each time step of a given rainfall event, this technique might easily be used in operational (real-time) applications. This paper describes the development of the non-parametric estimator exploiting the advantages of FFT for the automatic computation of correlograms and provides examples of its application on a case study using six rainfall events. This methodology is applied to three different alternatives to incorporate the radar information (as a secondary variable), and a comparison of performances is provided. In particular, their ability to reproduce in estimated rainfall fields (i) the rain gauge observations (in a cross-validation analysis) and (ii) the spatial patterns of radar fields are analyzed. Results seem to indicate that the methodology of kriging with external drift [KED], in combination with the technique of automatically computing 2-D spatial correlograms, provides merged rainfall fields with good agreement with rain gauges and with the most accurate approach to the spatial tendencies observed in the radar rainfall fields, when compared with other alternatives analyzed.

Estimating verbal fluency and naming ability from the test of premorbid functioning and demographic variables: Regression equations derived from a regional UK sample.

PubMed

Jenkinson, Toni-Marie; Muncer, Steven; Wheeler, Miranda; Brechin, Don; Evans, Stephen

2018-06-01

Neuropsychological assessment requires accurate estimation of an individual's premorbid cognitive abilities. Oral word reading tests, such as the test of premorbid functioning (TOPF), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and level of education, provide a reasonable indication of premorbid intelligence, but their ability to predict other related cognitive abilities is less well understood. This study aimed to develop regression equations, based on the TOPF and demographic variables, to predict scores on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. A sample of 119 healthy adults provided demographic information and were tested using the TOPF, FAS, animal naming test (ANT), and graded naming test (GNT). Multiple regression analyses, using the TOPF and demographics as predictor variables, were used to estimate verbal fluency and naming ability test scores. Change scores and cases of significant impairment were calculated for two clinical samples with diagnosed neurological conditions (TBI and meningioma) using the method in Knight, McMahon, Green, and Skeaff (). Demographic variables provided a significant contribution to the prediction of all verbal fluency and naming ability test scores; however, adding TOPF score to the equation considerably improved prediction beyond that afforded by demographic variables alone. The percentage of variance accounted for by demographic variables and/or TOPF score varied from 19 per cent (FAS), 28 per cent (ANT), and 41 per cent (GNT). Change scores revealed significant differences in performance in the clinical groups, particularity the TBI group. Demographic variables, particularly education level, and scores on the TOPF should be taken into consideration when interpreting performance on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Combining computer adaptive testing technology with cognitively diagnostic assessment.

PubMed

McGlohen, Meghan; Chang, Hua-Hua

2008-08-01

A major advantage of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) is that it allows the test to home in on an examinee's ability level in an interactive manner. The aim of the new area of cognitive diagnosis is to provide information about specific content areas in which an examinee needs help. The goal of this study was to combine the benefit of specific feedback from cognitively diagnostic assessment with the advantages of CAT. In this study, three approaches to combining these were investigated: (1) item selection based on the traditional ability level estimate (theta), (2) item selection based on the attribute mastery feedback provided by cognitively diagnostic assessment (alpha), and (3) item selection based on both the traditional ability level estimate (theta) and the attribute mastery feedback provided by cognitively diagnostic assessment (alpha). The results from these three approaches were compared for theta estimation accuracy, attribute mastery estimation accuracy, and item exposure control. The theta- and alpha-based condition outperformed the alpha-based condition regarding theta estimation, attribute mastery pattern estimation, and item exposure control. Both the theta-based condition and the theta- and alpha-based condition performed similarly with regard to theta estimation, attribute mastery estimation, and item exposure control, but the theta- and alpha-based condition has an additional advantage in that it uses the shadow test method, which allows the administrator to incorporate additional constraints in the item selection process, such as content balancing, item type constraints, and so forth, and also to select items on the basis of both the current theta and alpha estimates, which can be built on top of existing 3PL testing programs.

Shared Mechanisms in the Estimation of Self-Generated Actions and the Prediction of Other's Actions by Humans.

PubMed

Ikegami, Tsuyoshi; Ganesh, Gowrishankar

2017-01-01

The question of how humans predict outcomes of observed motor actions by others is a fundamental problem in cognitive and social neuroscience. Previous theoretical studies have suggested that the brain uses parts of the forward model (used to estimate sensory outcomes of self-generated actions) to predict outcomes of observed actions. However, this hypothesis has remained controversial due to the lack of direct experimental evidence. To address this issue, we analyzed the behavior of darts experts in an understanding learning paradigm and utilized computational modeling to examine how outcome prediction of observed actions affected the participants' ability to estimate their own actions. We recruited darts experts because sports experts are known to have an accurate outcome estimation of their own actions as well as prediction of actions observed in others. We first show that learning to predict the outcomes of observed dart throws deteriorates an expert's abilities to both produce his own darts actions and estimate the outcome of his own throws (or self-estimation). Next, we introduce a state-space model to explain the trial-by-trial changes in the darts performance and self-estimation through our experiment. The model-based analysis reveals that the change in an expert's self-estimation is explained only by considering a change in the individual's forward model, showing that an improvement in an expert's ability to predict outcomes of observed actions affects the individual's forward model. These results suggest that parts of the same forward model are utilized in humans to both estimate outcomes of self-generated actions and predict outcomes of observed actions.

The use of propagation path corrections to improve regional seismic event location in western China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steck, L.K.; Cogbill, A.H.; Velasco, A.A.

1999-03-01

In an effort to improve the ability to locate seismic events in western China using only regional data, the authors have developed empirical propagation path corrections (PPCs) and applied such corrections using both traditional location routines as well as a nonlinear grid search method. Thus far, the authors have concentrated on corrections to observed P arrival times for shallow events using travel-time observations available from the USGS EDRs, the ISC catalogs, their own travel-tim picks from regional data, and data from other catalogs. They relocate events with the algorithm of Bratt and Bache (1988) from a region encompassing China. Formore » individual stations having sufficient data, they produce a map of the regional travel-time residuals from all well-located teleseismic events. From these maps, interpolated PPC surfaces have been constructed using both surface fitting under tension and modified Bayesian kriging. The latter method offers the advantage of providing well-behaved interpolants, but requires that the authors have adequate error estimates associated with the travel-time residuals. To improve error estimates for kriging and event location, they separate measurement error from modeling error. The modeling error is defined as the travel-time variance of a particular model as a function of distance, while the measurement error is defined as the picking error associated with each phase. They estimate measurement errors for arrivals from the EDRs based on roundoff or truncation, and use signal-to-noise for the travel-time picks from the waveform data set.« less

Monitoring bruise age using visible diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMurdy, John W.; Duffy, Susan; Crawford, Gregory P.

2007-02-01

The ability to determine the age of a bruise of unknown age mechanism is important in matters of domestic and child abuse and forensics. While physicians are asked to make clinical judgment on the age of a bruise using color and tenderness, studies have shown that a physicians estimate is highly inaccurate and in cases no better than chance alone. We present here the temporal progression of reflection spectrum collected from accidentally inflicted contusions in adult and child study participants with a synopsis of the observed phenomena. Reflection spectra collected using a portable fiber optic reflection spectrometer can track the increase in extravasated hemoglobin from trauma caused blood vessel rupture and subsequent removal of this hemoglobin occurring concurrent with an increase in the absorption attributed to the breakdown product bilirubin. We hypothesize that this time dependent pattern can be used to determine the age of an unknown bruise in an individual provided rate constant information for the patient can be determined in a controlled calibration bruise. Using reflection spectra to estimate bruise age can provide a rapid and noninvasive method to improve the ability of physicians in dating the age of a contusion.

Target-type probability combining algorithms for multisensor tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigren, Torbjorn

2001-08-01

Algorithms for the handing of target type information in an operational multi-sensor tracking system are presented. The paper discusses recursive target type estimation, computation of crosses from passive data (strobe track triangulation), as well as the computation of the quality of the crosses for deghosting purposes. The focus is on Bayesian algorithms that operate in the discrete target type probability space, and on the approximations introduced for computational complexity reduction. The centralized algorithms are able to fuse discrete data from a variety of sensors and information sources, including IFF equipment, ESM's, IRST's as well as flight envelopes estimated from track data. All algorithms are asynchronous and can be tuned to handle clutter, erroneous associations as well as missed and erroneous detections. A key to obtain this ability is the inclusion of data forgetting by a procedure for propagation of target type probability states between measurement time instances. Other important properties of the algorithms are their abilities to handle ambiguous data and scenarios. The above aspects are illustrated in a simulations study. The simulation setup includes 46 air targets of 6 different types that are tracked by 5 airborne sensor platforms using ESM's and IRST's as data sources.

Cues of upper body strength account for most of the variance in men's bodily attractiveness.

PubMed

Sell, Aaron; Lukazsweski, Aaron W; Townsley, Michael

2017-12-20

Evolution equips sexually reproducing species with mate choice mechanisms that function to evaluate the reproductive consequences of mating with different individuals. Indeed, evolutionary psychologists have shown that women's mate choice mechanisms track many cues of men's genetic quality and ability to invest resources in the woman and her offspring. One variable that predicted both a man's genetic quality and his ability to invest is the man's formidability (i.e. fighting ability or resource holding power/potential). Modern women, therefore, should have mate choice mechanisms that respond to ancestral cues of a man's fighting ability. One crucial component of a man's ability to fight is his upper body strength. Here, we test how important physical strength is to men's bodily attractiveness. Three sets of photographs of men's bodies were shown to raters who estimated either their physical strength or their attractiveness. Estimates of physical strength determined over 70% of men's bodily attractiveness. Additional analyses showed that tallness and leanness were also favoured, and, along with estimates of physical strength, accounted for 80% of men's bodily attractiveness. Contrary to popular theories of men's physical attractiveness, there was no evidence of a nonlinear effect; the strongest men were the most attractive in all samples. © 2017 The Author(s).

Optimum sensor placement for microphone arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinkin, Daniel V.

Microphone arrays can be used for high-quality sound pickup in reverberant and noisy environments. Sound capture using conventional single microphone methods suffers severe degradation under these conditions. The beamforming capabilities of microphone array systems allow highly directional sound capture, providing enhanced signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) when compared to single microphone performance. The overall performance of an array system is governed by its ability to locate and track sound sources and its ability to capture sound from desired spatial volumes. These abilities are strongly affected by the spatial placement of microphone sensors. A method is needed to optimize placement for a specified number of sensors in a given acoustical environment. The objective of the optimization is to obtain the greatest average system SNR for sound capture in the region of interest. A two-step sound source location method is presented. In the first step, time delay of arrival (TDOA) estimates for select microphone pairs are determined using a modified version of the Omologo-Svaizer cross-power spectrum phase expression. In the second step, the TDOA estimates are used in a least-mean-squares gradient descent search algorithm to obtain a location estimate. Statistics for TDOA estimate error as a function of microphone pair/sound source geometry and acoustic environment are gathered from a set of experiments. These statistics are used to model position estimation accuracy for a given array geometry. The effectiveness of sound source capture is also dependent on array geometry and the acoustical environment. Simple beamforming and time delay compensation (TDC) methods provide spatial selectivity but suffer performance degradation in reverberant environments. Matched filter array (MFA) processing can mitigate the effects of reverberation. The shape and gain advantage of the capture region for these techniques is described and shown to be highly influenced by the placement of array sensors. A procedure is developed to evaluate a given array configuration based on the above-mentioned metrics. Constrained placement optimizations are performed that maximize SNR for both TDC and MFA capture methods. Results are compared for various acoustic environments and various enclosure sizes. General guidelines are presented for placement strategy and bandwidth dependence, as they relate to reverberation levels, ambient noise, and enclosure geometry. An overall performance function is described based on these metrics. Performance of the microphone array system is also constrained by the design limitations of the supporting hardware. Two newly developed hardware architectures are presented that support the described algorithms. A low- cost 8-channel system with off-the-shelf componentry was designed and its performance evaluated. A massively parallel 512-channel custom-built system is in development-its capabilities and the rationale for its design are described.

A quantitative link between face discrimination deficits and neuronal selectivity for faces in autism☆

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xiong; Bollich, Angela; Cox, Patrick; Hyder, Eric; James, Joette; Gowani, Saqib Ali; Hadjikhani, Nouchine; Blanz, Volker; Manoach, Dara S.; Barton, Jason J.S.; Gaillard, William D.; Riesenhuber, Maximilian

2013-01-01

Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) appear to show a general face discrimination deficit across a range of tasks including social–emotional judgments as well as identification and discrimination. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies probing the neural bases of these behavioral differences have produced conflicting results: while some studies have reported reduced or no activity to faces in ASD in the Fusiform Face Area (FFA), a key region in human face processing, others have suggested more typical activation levels, possibly reflecting limitations of conventional fMRI techniques to characterize neuron-level processing. Here, we test the hypotheses that face discrimination abilities are highly heterogeneous in ASD and are mediated by FFA neurons, with differences in face discrimination abilities being quantitatively linked to variations in the estimated selectivity of face neurons in the FFA. Behavioral results revealed a wide distribution of face discrimination performance in ASD, ranging from typical performance to chance level performance. Despite this heterogeneity in perceptual abilities, individual face discrimination performance was well predicted by neural selectivity to faces in the FFA, estimated via both a novel analysis of local voxel-wise correlations, and the more commonly used fMRI rapid adaptation technique. Thus, face processing in ASD appears to rely on the FFA as in typical individuals, differing quantitatively but not qualitatively. These results for the first time mechanistically link variations in the ASD phenotype to specific differences in the typical face processing circuit, identifying promising targets for interventions. PMID:24179786

The time–emotion paradox

PubMed Central

Droit-Volet, Sylvie; Gil, Sandrine

2009-01-01

The present manuscript discusses the time–emotion paradox in time psychology: although humans are able to accurately estimate time as if they possess a specific mechanism that allows them to measure time (i.e. an internal clock), their representations of time are easily distorted by the context. Indeed, our sense of time depends on intrinsic context, such as the emotional state, and on extrinsic context, such as the rhythm of others' activity. Existing studies on the relationships between emotion and time suggest that these contextual variations in subjective time do not result from the incorrect functioning of the internal clock but rather from the excellent ability of the internal clock to adapt to events in one's environment. Finally, the fact that we live and move in time and that everything, every act, takes more or less time has often been neglected. Thus, there is no unique, homogeneous time but instead multiple experiences of time. Our subjective temporal distortions directly reflect the way our brain and body adapt to these multiple time scales. PMID:19487196

Search for gravitational waves from LIGO-Virgo science run and data interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Rahul

Search for gravitational wave events was performed on data jointly taken during LIGO's fifth science run (S5) and Virgo's first science mn (VSR1). The data taken during this period was broken down into five separate months. I shall report the analysis performed on one of these months. Apart from the search, I shall describe the work related to estimation of rate based on the loudest event in the search. I shall demonstrate methods used in construction of rate intervals at 90% confidence level and combination of rates from multiple experiments of similar duration. To have confidence in our detection, accurate estimation of false alarm probability (F.A.P.) associated with the event candidate is required. Current false alarm estimation techniques limit our ability to measure the F.A.P. to about 1 in 100. I shall describe a method that significantly improves this estimate using information from multiple detectors. Besides accurate knowledge of F.A.P., detection is also dependent on our ability to distinguish real signals to those from noise. Several tests exist which use the quality of the signal to differentiate between real and noise signal. The chi-square test is one such computationally expensive test applied in our search; we shall understand the dependence of the chi-square parameter on the signal to noise ratio (SNR) for a given signal, which will help us to model the chi-square parameter based on SNR. The two detectors at Hanford, WA, H1(4km) and H2(2km), share the same vacuum system and hence their noise is correlated. Our present method of background estimation cannot capture this correlation and often underestimates the background when only H1 and H2 are operating. I shall describe a novel method of time reversed filtering to correctly estimate the background.

Available sight distance on existing highways: Meeting stopping sight distance requirements of an aging population.

PubMed

Gargoum, Suliman A; Tawfeek, Mostafa H; El-Basyouny, Karim; Koch, James C

2018-03-01

An important element of highway design is ensuring that the available sight distance (ASD) on a highway meets driver needs. For instance, if the ASD at any point on a highway is less than the distance required to come to a complete stop after seeing a hazard (i.e. Stopping Sight Distance (SSD)), the driver will not be able to stop in time to avoid a collision. SSD is function of a number of variables which vary depending on the driver, the vehicle driven and surface conditions; examples of such variables include a driver's perception reaction time or PRT (i.e. the time required by the driver to perceive and react to a hazard) and the deceleration rate of the vehicle. Most design guides recommend deterministic values for PRT and deceleration rates. Although these values may serve the needs of the average driver, they may not satisfy the needs of drivers with limited abilities. In other words, even if the ASD exceeds required SSD defined in the design guide, it might not always satisfy the needs of all drivers. While it is impossible to design roads that satisfy the needs of all drivers, the fact that most developed countries suffer from an aging population, means that the number of old drivers on our roads is expected to increase. Since a large proportion of old drivers often have limited abilities, it is expected that the general population of drivers with limited abilities on our roads will increase with time. Accordingly, more efforts are required to ensure that existing road infrastructure is prepared to handle such a change. This paper aims to explore the extent to which ASD on highways satisfies the needs of drivers with limited abilities. The paper first develops MATLAB and Python codes to automatically estimate the ASD on highway point cloud data collected using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing technology. The developed algorithms are then used to estimate ASD on seven different crash prone segments in the Province of Alberta, Canada and the ASD is compared to the required SSD on each highway. Three different levels of SSD are defined (SSD for drivers with limited ability, AASHTOs SSD requirements and SSD for drivers with high skill). The results show that, when compared to SSD requirements which integrate limitations in cognitive abilities, a substantial portion of the analyzed segments do not meet the requirements (up to 20%). Similarly, when compared to AASHTO's SSD requirements, up to 6% of the analyzed segments do not meet the requirements. In an attempt to explore the effects of such design limitations on safety, the paper also explores crash rates in noncompliant regions (i.e. regions that do not provide sufficient SSD) and compares them to crash rates in compliant regions. On average, it was found that noncompliant regions experience crash rates that are 2.15 and 1.25 times higher than compliant regions for AASHTO's SSD requirements and those integrating driver limitations, respectively. Furthermore, the study found that a significantly higher proportion of drivers involved in collisions in the noncompliant regions were old drivers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic postural control and associated attentional demands in contemporary dancers versus non-dancers

PubMed Central

Sirois-Leclerc, Geneviève; Remaud, Anthony

2017-01-01

Postural control is not a fully automatic process, but requires a certain level of attention, particularly as the difficulty of the postural task increases. This study aimed at testing whether experienced contemporary dancers, because of their specialized training involving the control of posture/balance, would present with a dual-task performance suggesting lesser attentional demands associated with dynamic postural control compared with non-dancers. Twenty dancers and 16 non-dancers performed a dynamic postural tracking task in both antero-posterior and side-to-side directions, while standing on a force platform. The postural task was performed, in turn, 1) as a stand-alone task, and concurrently with both 2) a simple reaction time task and 3) a choice reaction time task. Postural control performance was estimated through variables calculated from centre of pressure movements. Although no overall group difference was found in reaction time values, we found a better ability to control the side to side movements of the centre of pressure during the tracking task in dancers compared with non-dancers, which was dependent on the secondary task. This suggests that such increased ability is influenced by available attentional resources. PMID:28323843

Dynamic postural control and associated attentional demands in contemporary dancers versus non-dancers.

PubMed

Sirois-Leclerc, Geneviève; Remaud, Anthony; Bilodeau, Martin

2017-01-01

Postural control is not a fully automatic process, but requires a certain level of attention, particularly as the difficulty of the postural task increases. This study aimed at testing whether experienced contemporary dancers, because of their specialized training involving the control of posture/balance, would present with a dual-task performance suggesting lesser attentional demands associated with dynamic postural control compared with non-dancers. Twenty dancers and 16 non-dancers performed a dynamic postural tracking task in both antero-posterior and side-to-side directions, while standing on a force platform. The postural task was performed, in turn, 1) as a stand-alone task, and concurrently with both 2) a simple reaction time task and 3) a choice reaction time task. Postural control performance was estimated through variables calculated from centre of pressure movements. Although no overall group difference was found in reaction time values, we found a better ability to control the side to side movements of the centre of pressure during the tracking task in dancers compared with non-dancers, which was dependent on the secondary task. This suggests that such increased ability is influenced by available attentional resources.

Learning to Control Actions: Transfer Effects following a Procedural Cognitive Control Computerized Training

PubMed Central

Shahar, Nitzan; Meiran, Nachshon

2015-01-01

Few studies have addressed action control training. In the current study, participants were trained over 19 days in an adaptive training task that demanded constant switching, maintenance and updating of novel action rules. Participants completed an executive functions battery before and after training that estimated processing speed, working memory updating, set-shifting, response inhibition and fluid intelligence. Participants in the training group showed greater improvement than a no-contact control group in processing speed, indicated by reduced reaction times in speeded classification tasks. No other systematic group differences were found across the different pre-post measurements. Ex-Gaussian fitting of the reaction-time distribution revealed that the reaction time reduction observed among trained participants was restricted to the right tail of the distribution, previously shown to be related to working memory. Furthermore, training effects were only found in classification tasks that required participants to maintain novel stimulus-response rules in mind, supporting the notion that the training improved working memory abilities. Training benefits were maintained in a 10-month follow-up, indicating relatively long-lasting effects. The authors conclude that training improved action-related working memory abilities. PMID:25799443

Is Bayesian Estimation Proper for Estimating the Individual's Ability? Research Report 80-3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

The effect of prior information in Bayesian estimation is considered, mainly from the standpoint of objective testing. In the estimation of a parameter belonging to an individual, the prior information is, in most cases, the density function of the population to which the individual belongs. Bayesian estimation was compared with maximum likelihood…

Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

2017-10-01

Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

Movement analyses of wood cricket ( Nemobius sylvestris) (Orthoptera: Gryllidae).

PubMed

Brouwers, N C; Newton, A C

2010-12-01

Information on the dispersal ability of invertebrate species associated with woodland habitats is severely lacking. Therefore, a study was conducted examining the movement patterns of wood cricket (Nemobius sylvestris) (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) on the Isle of Wight, UK. Juvenile (i.e. nymphs) and adult wood crickets were released and observed over time within different ground surface substrates. Their movement paths were recorded and subsequently analysed using random walk models. Nymphs were found to move more slowly than adults did; and, when given a choice, both nymphs and adults showed a preference for moving through or over leaf litter compared to bare soil or grass. A correlated random walk (CRW) model accurately described the movement pattern of adult wood crickets through leaf litter, indicating a level of directional persistence in their movements. The estimated population spread through leaf litter for adults was 17.9 cm min-1. Movements of nymphs through leaf litter could not accurately be described by a random walk model, showing a change in their movement pattern over time from directed to more random movements. The estimated population spread through leaf litter for nymphs was 10.1 cm min-1. The results indicate that wood cricket adults can be considered as more powerful dispersers than nymphs; however, further analysis of how the insects move through natural heterogeneous environments at a range of spatio-temporal scales needs to be performed to provide a complete understanding of the dispersal ability of the species.

What do parents know about their children's comprehension of emotions? accuracy of parental estimates in a community sample of pre-schoolers.

PubMed

Kårstad, S B; Kvello, O; Wichstrøm, L; Berg-Nielsen, T S

2014-05-01

Parents' ability to correctly perceive their child's skills has implications for how the child develops. In some studies, parents have shown to overestimate their child's abilities in areas such as IQ, memory and language. Emotion Comprehension (EC) is a skill central to children's emotion regulation, initially learned from their parents. In this cross-sectional study we first tested children's EC and then asked parents to estimate the child's performance. Thus, a measure of accuracy between child performance and parents' estimates was obtained. Subsequently, we obtained information on child and parent factors that might predict parents' accuracy in estimating their child's EC. Child EC and parental accuracy of estimation was tested by studying a community sample of 882 4-year-olds who completed the Test of Emotion Comprehension (TEC). The parents were instructed to guess their children's responses on the TEC. Predictors of parental accuracy of estimation were child actual performance on the TEC, child language comprehension, observed parent-child interaction, the education level of the parent, and child mental health. Ninety-one per cent of the parents overestimated their children's EC. On average, parents estimated that their 4-year-old children would display the level of EC corresponding to a 7-year-old. Accuracy of parental estimation was predicted by child high performance on the TEC, child advanced language comprehension, and more optimal parent-child interaction. Parents' ability to estimate the level of their child's EC was characterized by a substantial overestimation. The more competent the child, and the more sensitive and structuring the parent was interacting with the child, the more accurate the parent was in the estimation of their child's EC. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

2017-01-01

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

The influence of lapses of attention on working memory capacity.

PubMed

Unsworth, Nash; Robison, Matthew K

2016-02-01

In three experiments, the influence of lapses of attention on working memory (WM) capacity measures was examined. Participants performed various change detection tasks while also reporting whether they were focused on the current task or whether they were unfocused and mind-wandering. Participants reported that they were mind-wandering roughly 27% of the time, and when participants reported mind-wandering, their performance was worse compared to when they reported being on-task. Low WM capacity individuals reported more mind-wandering and lapses of attention than high WM capacity individuals, and mind-wandering and filtering abilities were shown to make independent contributions to capacity estimates. These results provide direct support for the notion that the ability to focus attention on-task and prevent lapses of attention is an important contributor to performance on measures of WM capacity.

Quantum optimization for training support vector machines.

PubMed

Anguita, Davide; Ridella, Sandro; Rivieccio, Fabio; Zunino, Rodolfo

2003-01-01

Refined concepts, such as Rademacher estimates of model complexity and nonlinear criteria for weighting empirical classification errors, represent recent and promising approaches to characterize the generalization ability of Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The advantages of those techniques lie in both improving the SVM representation ability and yielding tighter generalization bounds. On the other hand, they often make Quadratic-Programming algorithms no longer applicable, and SVM training cannot benefit from efficient, specialized optimization techniques. The paper considers the application of Quantum Computing to solve the problem of effective SVM training, especially in the case of digital implementations. The presented research compares the behavioral aspects of conventional and enhanced SVMs; experiments in both a synthetic and real-world problems support the theoretical analysis. At the same time, the related differences between Quadratic-Programming and Quantum-based optimization techniques are considered.

Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David; Corasaniti, Pier Stefano; Liddle, Andrew R.; Kunz, Martin

2006-07-01

A key science goal of upcoming dark energy surveys is to seek time-evolution of the dark energy. This problem is one of model selection, where the aim is to differentiate between cosmological models with different numbers of parameters. However, the power of these surveys is traditionally assessed by estimating their ability to constrain parameters, which is a different statistical problem. In this paper, we use Bayesian model selection techniques, specifically forecasting of the Bayes factors, to compare the abilities of different proposed surveys in discovering dark energy evolution. We consider six experiments - supernova luminosity measurements by the Supernova Legacy Survey, SNAP, JEDI and ALPACA, and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements by WFMOS and JEDI - and use Bayes factor plots to compare their statistical constraining power. The concept of Bayes factor forecasting has much broader applicability than dark energy surveys.

Career Adapt-Abilities Scale--Netherlands Form: Psychometric Properties and Relationships to Ability, Personality, and Regulatory Focus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Vianen, Annelies E. M.; Klehe, Ute-Christine; Koen, Jessie; Dries, Nicky

2012-01-01

The Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS)--Netherlands Form consists of four scales, each with six items, which measure concern, control, curiosity, and confidence as psychosocial resources for managing occupational transitions, developmental tasks, and work traumas. Internal consistency estimates for the subscale and total scores ranged from…

Modification of the USLE K factor for soil erodibility assessment on calcareous soils in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostovari, Yaser; Ghorbani-Dashtaki, Shoja; Bahrami, Hossein-Ali; Naderi, Mehdi; Dematte, Jose Alexandre M.; Kerry, Ruth

2016-11-01

The measurement of soil erodibility (K) in the field is tedious, time-consuming and expensive; therefore, its prediction through pedotransfer functions (PTFs) could be far less costly and time-consuming. The aim of this study was to develop new PTFs to estimate the K factor using multiple linear regression, Mamdani fuzzy inference systems, and artificial neural networks. For this purpose, K was measured in 40 erosion plots with natural rainfall. Various soil properties including the soil particle size distribution, calcium carbonate equivalent, organic matter, permeability, and wet-aggregate stability were measured. The results showed that the mean measured K was 0.014 t h MJ- 1 mm- 1 and 2.08 times less than the estimated mean K (0.030 t h MJ- 1 mm- 1) using the USLE model. Permeability, wet-aggregate stability, very fine sand, and calcium carbonate were selected as independent variables by forward stepwise regression in order to assess the ability of multiple linear regression, Mamdani fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural networks to predict K. The calcium carbonate equivalent, which is not accounted for in the USLE model, had a significant impact on K in multiple linear regression due to its strong influence on the stability of aggregates and soil permeability. Statistical indices in validation and calibration datasets determined that the artificial neural networks method with the highest R2, lowest RMSE, and lowest ME was the best model for estimating the K factor. A strong correlation (R2 = 0.81, n = 40, p < 0.05) between the estimated K from multiple linear regression and measured K indicates that the use of calcium carbonate equivalent as a predictor variable gives a better estimation of K in areas with calcareous soils.

Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the Rothamsted carbon model: a Bayesian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnagl, B.; Vrugt, J. A.; Vereecken, H.; Herbst, M.

2010-02-01

A major drawback of current soil organic carbon (SOC) models is that their conceptually defined pools do not necessarily correspond to measurable SOC fractions in real practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive accurate initial states of the individual carbon pools. In this study, we tested the feasibility of inverse modelling for estimating pools in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC) using mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments. This inverse approach may provide an alternative to existing SOC fractionation methods. To illustrate our approach, we used a time series of synthetically generated mineralization rates using the ROTHC model. We adopted a Bayesian approach using the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to infer probability density functions of the various carbon pools at the start of incubation. The Kullback-Leibler divergence was used to quantify the information content of the mineralization rate data. Our results indicate that measured mineralization rates generally provided sufficient information to reliably estimate all carbon pools in the ROTHC model. The incubation time necessary to appropriately constrain all pools was about 900 days. The use of prior information on microbial biomass carbon significantly reduced the uncertainty of the initial carbon pools, decreasing the required incubation time to about 600 days. Simultaneous estimation of initial carbon pools and decomposition rate constants significantly increased the uncertainty of the carbon pools. This effect was most pronounced for the intermediate and slow pools. Altogether, our results demonstrate that it is particularly difficult to derive reasonable estimates of the humified organic matter pool and the inert organic matter pool from inverse modelling of mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments.

Scalar and Vector Spherical Harmonics for Assimilation of Global Datasets in the Ionosphere and Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miladinovich, D.; Datta-Barua, S.; Bust, G. S.; Ramirez, U.

2017-12-01

Understanding physical processes during storm time in the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system is limited, in part, due to the inability to obtain accurate estimates of IT states on a global scale. One reason for this inability is the sparsity of spatially distributed high quality data sets. Data assimilation is showing promise toward enabling global estimates by blending high quality observational data sets with established climate models. We are continuing development of an algorithm called Estimating Model Parameters for Ionospheric Reverse Engineering (EMPIRE) to enable assimilation of global datasets for storm time estimates of IT drivers. EMPIRE is a data assimilation algorithm that uses a Kalman filtering routine to ingest model and observational data. The EMPIRE algorithm is based on spherical harmonics which provide a spherically symmetric, smooth, continuous, and orthonormal set of basis functions suitable for a spherical domain such as Earth's IT region (200-600 km altitude). Once the basis function coefficients are determined, the newly fitted function represents the disagreement between observational measurements and models. We apply spherical harmonics to study the March 17, 2015 storm. Data sources include Fabry-Perot interferometer neutral wind measurements and global Ionospheric Data Assimilation 4 Dimensional (IDA4D) assimilated total electron content (TEC). Models include Weimer 2000 electric potential, International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) magnetic field, and Horizontal Wind Model 2014 (HWM14) neutral winds. We present the EMPIRE assimilation results of Earth's electric potential and thermospheric winds. We also compare EMPIRE storm time E cross B ion drift estimates to measured drifts produced from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) and Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) measurement datasets. The analysis from these results will enable the generation of globally assimilated storm time IT state estimates for future studies. In particular, the ability to provide data assimilated estimation of the drivers of the IT system from high to low latitudes is a critical step toward forecasting the influence of geomagnetic storms on the near Earth space environment.

Gaussian Process Kalman Filter for Focal Plane Wavefront Correction and Exoplanet Signal Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, He; Kasdin, N. Jeremy

2018-01-01

Currently, the ultimate limitation of space-based coronagraphy is the ability to subtract the residual PSF after wavefront correction to reveal the planet. Called reference difference imaging (RDI), the technique consists of conducting wavefront control to collect the reference point spread function (PSF) by observing a bright star, and then extracting target planet signals by subtracting a weighted sum of reference PSFs. Unfortunately, this technique is inherently inefficient because it spends a significant fraction of the observing time on the reference star rather than the target star with the planet. Recent progress in model based wavefront estimation suggests an alternative approach. A Kalman filter can be used to estimate the stellar PSF for correction by the wavefront control system while simultaneously estimating the planet signal. Without observing the reference star, the (extended) Kalman filter directly utilizes the wavefront correction data and combines the time series observations and model predictions to estimate the stellar PSF and planet signals. Because wavefront correction is used during the entire observation with no slewing, the system has inherently better stability. In this poster we show our results aimed at further improving our Kalman filter estimation accuracy by including not only temporal correlations but also spatial correlations among neighboring pixels in the images. This technique is known as a Gaussian process Kalman filter (GPKF). We also demonstrate the advantages of using a Kalman filter rather than RDI by simulating a real space exoplanet detection mission.

Statistical Indexes for Monitoring Item Behavior under Computer Adaptive Testing Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Renbang; Yu, Feng; Liu, Su

A computerized adaptive test (CAT) administration usually requires a large supply of items with accurately estimated psychometric properties, such as item response theory (IRT) parameter estimates, to ensure the precision of examinee ability estimation. However, an estimated IRT model of a given item in any given pool does not always correctly…

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

A comparison of sap flux-based evapotranspiration estimates with catchment-scale water balance

Treesearch

Chelcy R. Ford; Robert M. Hubbard; Brian D. Kloeppel; James M. Vose

2007-01-01

Many researchers are using sap flux to estimate tree-level transpiration, and to scale to stand- and catchment-level transpiration; yet studies evaluating the comparability of sap flux-based estimates of transpiration (E) with alternative methods for estimating Et at this spatial scale are rare. Our ability to...

Application of the Combination Approach for Estimating Evapotranspiration in Puerto Rico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmsen, Eric; Luvall, Jeffrey; Gonzalez, Jorge

2005-01-01

The ability to estimate short-term fluxes of water vapor from the land surface is important for validating latent heat flux estimates from high resolution remote sensing techniques. A new, relatively inexpensive method is presented for estimating t h e ground-based values of the surface latent heat flux or evapotranspiration.

An Evaluation of Empirical Bayes's Estimation of Value-Added Teacher Performance Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Maxfield, Michelle; Reckase, Mark D.; Thompson, Paul N.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2015-01-01

Empirical Bayes's (EB) estimation has become a popular procedure used to calculate teacher value added, often as a way to make imprecise estimates more reliable. In this article, we review the theory of EB estimation and use simulated and real student achievement data to study the ability of EB estimators to properly rank teachers. We compare the…

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Consensus-based distributed estimation in multi-agent systems with time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelmawgoud, Ahmed

During the last years, research in the field of cooperative control of swarm of robots, especially Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); have been improved due to the increase of UAV applications. The ability to track targets using UAVs has a wide range of applications not only civilian but also military as well. For civilian applications, UAVs can perform tasks including, but not limited to: map an unknown area, weather forecasting, land survey, and search and rescue missions. On the other hand, for military personnel, UAV can track and locate a variety of objects, including the movement of enemy vehicles. Consensus problems arise in a number of applications including coordination of UAVs, information processing in wireless sensor networks, and distributed multi-agent optimization. We consider a widely studied consensus algorithms for processing sensed data by different sensors in wireless sensor networks of dynamic agents. Every agent involved in the network forms a weighted average of its own estimated value of some state with the values received from its neighboring agents. We introduced a novelty of consensus-based distributed estimation algorithms. We propose a new algorithm to reach a consensus given time delay constraints. The proposed algorithm performance was observed in a scenario where a swarm of UAVs measuring the location of a ground maneuvering target. We assume that each UAV computes its state prediction and shares it with its neighbors only. However, the shared information applied to different agents with variant time delays. The entire group of UAVs must reach a consensus on target state. Different scenarios were also simulated to examine the effectiveness and performance in terms of overall estimation error, disagreement between delayed and non-delayed agents, and time to reach a consensus for each parameter contributing on the proposed algorithm.

Synaptic Correlates of Working Memory Capacity.

PubMed

Mi, Yuanyuan; Katkov, Mikhail; Tsodyks, Misha

2017-01-18

Psychological studies indicate that human ability to keep information in readily accessible working memory is limited to four items for most people. This extremely low capacity severely limits execution of many cognitive tasks, but its neuronal underpinnings remain unclear. Here we show that in the framework of synaptic theory of working memory, capacity can be analytically estimated to scale with characteristic time of short-term synaptic depression relative to synaptic current time constant. The number of items in working memory can be regulated by external excitation, enabling the system to be tuned to the desired load and to clear the working memory of currently held items to make room for new ones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spin-wave utilization in a quantum computer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khitun, A.; Ostroumov, R.; Wang, K. L.

2001-12-01

We propose a quantum computer scheme using spin waves for quantum-information exchange. We demonstrate that spin waves in the antiferromagnetic layer grown on silicon may be used to perform single-qubit unitary transformations together with two-qubit operations during the cycle of computation. The most attractive feature of the proposed scheme is the possibility of random access to any qubit and, consequently, the ability to recognize two qubit gates between any two distant qubits. Also, spin waves allow us to eliminate the use of a strong external magnetic field and microwave pulses. By estimate, the proposed scheme has as high as 104 ratio between quantum system coherence time and the time of a single computational step.

Measuring intellectual ability in children with cerebral palsy: can we do better?

PubMed

Sherwell, Sarah; Reid, Susan M; Reddihough, Dinah S; Wrennall, Jacquie; Ong, Ben; Stargatt, Robyn

2014-10-01

Standard intelligence tests such as the WPPSI-III have limitations when testing children with motor impairment. This study aimed to determine the proportion of children with cerebral palsy with sufficient verbal and motor skills to complete the WPPSI-III, to determine their comparative ability to complete tasks with and without a significant motor component, and to investigate short forms of the WPPSI-III as alternatives. Participants were 78 of 235 eligible 4-5 year old children with cerebral palsy resident in the Australian state of Victoria. Verbal IQ (VIQ), Performance IQ (PIQ), and Full-scale IQ (FSIQ) were determined using the WPPSI-III. Initial screening for pointing and verbal abilities determined which tests were attempted. The impact of speed was investigated by comparing scores on the Block Design subtest with and without an imposed time limit. FSIQ scores were calculated from two short forms of the WPPSI-III and compared to the full form. On screening, 16 children had inadequate pointing (14) and verbal abilities (2). FSIQ was obtained in 62 (82%) children. Strong associations were seen between completion of the entire test battery and topographical pattern, level of manual ability and level of gross motor function. Scores on subtests requiring manual ability were depressed relative to other scores. Children performed better using short forms of the WPPSI-III and, for a minority, when time limits were disregarded. In summary, children with cerebral palsy often lack the fine and gross motor skills necessary to complete the WPPSI-III, scoring relatively poorly on tasks requiring a fine motor response. Using short-form estimations of FSIQ comprised of subtests without a significant fine motor component has the potential to increase a child's FSIQ by approximately 5 points. These findings have important clinical implications when assessing a child with both motor and cognitive limitations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared Mechanisms in the Estimation of Self-Generated Actions and the Prediction of Other’s Actions by Humans

PubMed Central

Ganesh, Gowrishankar

2017-01-01

Abstract The question of how humans predict outcomes of observed motor actions by others is a fundamental problem in cognitive and social neuroscience. Previous theoretical studies have suggested that the brain uses parts of the forward model (used to estimate sensory outcomes of self-generated actions) to predict outcomes of observed actions. However, this hypothesis has remained controversial due to the lack of direct experimental evidence. To address this issue, we analyzed the behavior of darts experts in an understanding learning paradigm and utilized computational modeling to examine how outcome prediction of observed actions affected the participants’ ability to estimate their own actions. We recruited darts experts because sports experts are known to have an accurate outcome estimation of their own actions as well as prediction of actions observed in others. We first show that learning to predict the outcomes of observed dart throws deteriorates an expert’s abilities to both produce his own darts actions and estimate the outcome of his own throws (or self-estimation). Next, we introduce a state-space model to explain the trial-by-trial changes in the darts performance and self-estimation through our experiment. The model-based analysis reveals that the change in an expert’s self-estimation is explained only by considering a change in the individual’s forward model, showing that an improvement in an expert’s ability to predict outcomes of observed actions affects the individual’s forward model. These results suggest that parts of the same forward model are utilized in humans to both estimate outcomes of self-generated actions and predict outcomes of observed actions. PMID:29340300

Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

2005-12-01

The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

Loss of ability to work and ability to live independently in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Heckman, Michael G; Wider, Christian; Putzke, John D; Wszolek, Zbigniew K; Uitti, Ryan J

2012-02-01

Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal Treatment of a Thermal Response for Defect Depth Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plotnikov, Y. A.; Winfree, W. P.

2004-01-01

Transient thermography, which employs pulse surface heating of an inspected component followed by acquisition of the thermal decay stage, is gaining wider acceptance as a result of its remoteness and rapidness. Flaws in the component s material may induce a thermal contrast in surface thermograms. An important issue in transient thermography is estimating the depth of a subsurface flaw from the thermal response. This improves the quantitative ability of the thermal evaluation: from one scan it is possible to locate regions of anomalies in thickness (caused by corrosion) and estimate the implications of the flaw on the integrity of the structure. Our research focuses on thick composite aircraft components. A long square heating pulse and several minutes observation period are required to receive an adequate thermal response from such a component. Application of various time-related informative parameters of the thermal response for depth estimation is discussed. A three-dimensional finite difference model of heat propagation in solids in Cartesian coordinates is used to simulate the thermographic process. Typical physical properties of polymer graphite composites are assumed for the model.

Kalman filtered MR temperature imaging for laser induced thermal therapies.

PubMed

Fuentes, D; Yung, J; Hazle, J D; Weinberg, J S; Stafford, R J

2012-04-01

The feasibility of using a stochastic form of Pennes bioheat model within a 3-D finite element based Kalman filter (KF) algorithm is critically evaluated for the ability to provide temperature field estimates in the event of magnetic resonance temperature imaging (MRTI) data loss during laser induced thermal therapy (LITT). The ability to recover missing MRTI data was analyzed by systematically removing spatiotemporal information from a clinical MR-guided LITT procedure in human brain and comparing predictions in these regions to the original measurements. Performance was quantitatively evaluated in terms of a dimensionless L(2) (RMS) norm of the temperature error weighted by acquisition uncertainty. During periods of no data corruption, observed error histories demonstrate that the Kalman algorithm does not alter the high quality temperature measurement provided by MR thermal imaging. The KF-MRTI implementation considered is seen to predict the bioheat transfer with RMS error < 4 for a short period of time, ∆t < 10 s, until the data corruption subsides. In its present form, the KF-MRTI method currently fails to compensate for consecutive for consecutive time periods of data loss ∆t > 10 sec.

Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mrozinski, Joe; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Fox, George; Ball, Gary

2014-01-01

The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

Concentration and flux of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids for monitored tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2014-01-01

Annual and daily concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids were estimated for 18 monitored tributaries to Lake Champlain by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Seasons regression model. Estimates were made for 21 or 23 years, depending on data availability, for the purpose of providing timely and accessible summary reports as stipulated in the 2010 update to the Lake Champlain “Opportunities for Action” management plan. Estimates of concentration and flux were provided for each tributary based on (1) observed daily discharges and (2) a flow-normalizing procedure, which removed the random fluctuations of climate-related variability. The flux bias statistic, an indicator of the ability of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season regression models to provide accurate representations of flux, showed acceptable bias (less than ±10 percent) for 68 out of 72 models for total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, and chloride. Six out of 18 models for total suspended solids had moderate bias (between 10 and 30 percent), an expected result given the frequently nonlinear relation between total suspended solids and discharge. One model for total suspended solids with a very high bias was influenced by a single extreme value; however, removal of that value, although reducing the bias substantially, had little effect on annual fluxes.

Validation of new and existing decision rules for the estimation of beat-to-beat pulse transit time.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaolin; Peng, Rongchao; Ding, Hongxia; Zhang, Ningling; Li, Pan

2015-01-01

Pulse transit time (PTT) is a pivotal marker of vascular stiffness. Because the actual PTT duration in vivo is unknown and the complicated variation in waveform may occur, the robust determination of characteristic point is still a very difficult task in the PTT estimation. Our objective is to devise a method for real-time estimation of PTT duration in pulse wave. It has an ability to reduce the interference caused by both high- and low-frequency noise. The reproducibility and performance of these methods are assessed on both artificial and clinical pulse data. Artificial data are generated to investigate the reproducibility with various signal-to-noise ratios. For all artificial data, the mean biases obtained from all methods are less than 1 ms; collectively, this newly proposed method has minimum standard deviation (SD, <1 ms). A set of data from 33 participants together with the synchronously recorded continuous blood pressure data are used to investigate the correlation coefficient (CC). The statistical analysis shows that our method has maximum values of mean CC (0.5231), sum of CCs (17.26), and median CC (0.5695) and has the minimum SD of CCs (0.1943). Overall, the test results in this study indicate that the newly developed method has advantages over traditional decision rules for the PTT measurement.

Self-contained, low-cost Body-on-a-Chip systems for drug development.

PubMed

Wang, Ying I; Oleaga, Carlota; Long, Christopher J; Esch, Mandy B; McAleer, Christopher W; Miller, Paula G; Hickman, James J; Shuler, Michael L

2017-11-01

Integrated multi-organ microphysiological systems are an evolving tool for preclinical evaluation of the potential toxicity and efficacy of drug candidates. Such systems, also known as Body-on-a-Chip devices, have a great potential to increase the successful conversion of drug candidates entering clinical trials into approved drugs. Systems, to be attractive for commercial adoption, need to be inexpensive, easy to operate, and give reproducible results. Further, the ability to measure functional responses, such as electrical activity, force generation, and barrier integrity of organ surrogates, enhances the ability to monitor response to drugs. The ability to operate a system for significant periods of time (up to 28 d) will provide potential to estimate chronic as well as acute responses of the human body. Here we review progress towards a self-contained low-cost microphysiological system with functional measurements of physiological responses. Impact statement Multi-organ microphysiological systems are promising devices to improve the drug development process. The development of a pumpless system represents the ability to build multi-organ systems that are of low cost, high reliability, and self-contained. These features, coupled with the ability to measure electrical and mechanical response in addition to chemical or metabolic changes, provides an attractive system for incorporation into the drug development process. This will be the most complete review of the pumpless platform with recirculation yet written.

A quick on-line state of health estimation method for Li-ion battery with incremental capacity curves processed by Gaussian filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Abdel-Monem, Mohamed; Gopalakrishnan, Rahul; Berecibar, Maitane; Nanini-Maury, Elise; Omar, Noshin; van den Bossche, Peter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an advanced state of health (SoH) estimation method for high energy NMC lithium-ion batteries based on the incremental capacity (IC) analysis. IC curves are used due to their ability of detect and quantify battery degradation mechanism. A simple and robust smoothing method is proposed based on Gaussian filter to reduce the noise on IC curves, the signatures associated with battery ageing can therefore be accurately identified. A linear regression relationship is found between the battery capacity with the positions of features of interest (FOIs) on IC curves. Results show that the developed SoH estimation function from one single battery cell is able to evaluate the SoH of other batteries cycled under different cycling depth with less than 2.5% maximum errors, which proves the robustness of the proposed method on SoH estimation. With this technique, partial charging voltage curves can be used for SoH estimation and the testing time can be therefore largely reduced. This method shows great potential to be applied in reality, as it only requires static charging curves and can be easily implemented in battery management system (BMS).

Use of heat to estimate streambed fluxes during extreme hydrologic events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Coupe, Richard H.

2009-01-01

Using heat as a tracer, quantitative estimates of streambed fluxes and the critical stage for flow reversal were calculated for high‐flow events that occurred on the Bogue Phalia (a tributary of the Mississippi River) following the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In June 2005, piezometers were installed in the Bogue Phalia upstream from the stream gage near Leland, Mississippi, to monitor temperature. Even with the hurricanes, precipitation in the Bogue Phalia Basin for the months of June to October 2005 was below normal, and consequently, streamflow was below the long‐term average. Temperature profiles from the piezometers indicate that the Bogue Phalia was a gaining stream during most of this time, but relatively static streambed temperatures suggested long‐term data was warranted for heat‐based estimates of flux. However, the hurricanes caused a pair of sharp rises in stream stage over short periods of time, increasing the potential for rapid heat‐based modeling and for identification of the critical stage for flow reversal into the streambed. Heat‐based modeling fits of simulated‐to‐measured sediment temperatures show that once a critical stage was surpassed, flow direction reversed into the streambed. Results of this study demonstrate the ability to constrain estimates of streambed water flux and the critical stage of flow reversal, with little available groundwater head data, by using heat as a tracer during extreme stage events.

Real-time core body temperature estimation from heart rate for first responders wearing different levels of personal protective equipment.

PubMed

Buller, Mark J; Tharion, William J; Duhamel, Cynthia M; Yokota, Miyo

2015-01-01

First responders often wear personal protective equipment (PPE) for protection from on-the-job hazards. While PPE ensembles offer individuals protection, they limit one's ability to thermoregulate, and can place the wearer in danger of heat exhaustion and higher cardiac stress. Automatically monitoring thermal-work strain is one means to manage these risks, but measuring core body temperature (Tc) has proved problematic. An algorithm that estimates Tc from sequential measures of heart rate (HR) was compared to the observed Tc from 27 US soldiers participating in three different chemical/biological training events (45-90 min duration) while wearing PPE. Hotter participants (higher Tc) averaged (HRs) of 140 bpm and reached Tc around 39 °C. Overall the algorithm had a small bias (0.02 °C) and root mean square error (0.21 °C). Limits of agreement (LoA ± 0.48 °C) were similar to comparisons of Tc measured by oesophageal and rectal probes. The algorithm shows promise for use in real-time monitoring of encapsulated first responders. An algorithm to estimate core temperature (Tc) from non-invasive measures of HR was validated. Three independent studies (n = 27) compared the estimated Tc to the observed Tc in humans participating in chemical/ biological hazard training. The algorithm’s bias and variance to observed data were similar to that found from comparisons of oesophageal and rectal measurements.

A Probabilistic Strategy for Understanding Action Selection

PubMed Central

Kim, Byounghoon; Basso, Michele A.

2010-01-01

Brain regions involved in transforming sensory signals into movement commands are the likely sites where decisions are formed. Once formed, a decision must be read-out from the activity of populations of neurons to produce a choice of action. How this occurs remains unresolved. We recorded from four superior colliculus (SC) neurons simultaneously while monkeys performed a target selection task. We implemented three models to gain insight into the computational principles underlying population coding of action selection. We compared the population vector average (PVA), winner-takes-all (WTA) and a Bayesian model, maximum a posteriori estimate (MAP) to determine which predicted choices most often. The probabilistic model predicted more trials correctly than both the WTA and the PVA. The MAP model predicted 81.88% whereas WTA predicted 71.11% and PVA/OLE predicted the least number of trials at 55.71 and 69.47%. Recovering MAP estimates using simulated, non-uniform priors that correlated with monkeys’ choice performance, improved the accuracy of the model by 2.88%. A dynamic analysis revealed that the MAP estimate evolved over time and the posterior probability of the saccade choice reached a maximum at the time of the saccade. MAP estimates also scaled with choice performance accuracy. Although there was overlap in the prediction abilities of all the models, we conclude that movement choice from populations of neurons may be best understood by considering frameworks based on probability. PMID:20147560

Impact of Elevated Core Body Temperature on Attention Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Kai; Jiang, Qingjun; Li, Li; Li, Bo; Yang, Zhen; Qian, Shaowen; Li, Min; Sun, Gang

2015-12-01

Cognitive function can be impaired after passive heat exposure and with an elevation in core body temperature (Tcore). This study examined the dynamic correlation among passive heat exposure, Tcore, and cognition. We gave the Attention Network Test of alerting, orienting, and executive control to five groups of five young men who were being exposed to a hyperthermic condition (50°C, 40% relative humidity) for 0, 10, 20, 30, or 40 minutes. We used the participants' reaction time, accuracy (correct responses), efficiency (accuracy÷reaction time), and Tcore to estimate optimal curve models for best fit of data. We could not estimate an appropriate curve model for either alerting or orienting with Tcore, change in Tcore, or duration of passive heat exposure. We estimated quadratic models for Tcore and duration (adjusted R=0.752), change in Tcore and duration (0.906), executive control score and duration (0.509), and efficiency of executive control and duration (0.293). We estimated linear models for executive control score and Tcore (0.479), efficiency of executive control and Tcore (0.261), executive control score and change in Tcore (0.279), and efficiency of executive control and change in Tcore (0.262). Different attentional abilities had different sensitivities to thermal stress. Executive control of attention deteriorated linearly with a rise in Tcore within the normal physiologic range, but deteriorated nonlinearly with longer passive heat exposure.

Diagnosing turbulence for research aircraft safety using open source toolkits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, T. J.; Guy, N.

Open source software toolkits have been developed and applied to diagnose in-cloud turbulence in the vicinity of Earth science research aircraft, via analysis of ground-based Doppler radar data. Based on multiple retrospective analyses, these toolkits show promise for detecting significant turbulence well prior to cloud penetrations by research aircraft. A pilot study demonstrated the ability to provide mission scientists turbulence estimates in near real time during an actual field campaign, and thus these toolkits are recommended for usage in future cloud-penetrating aircraft field campaigns.

Early Word Decoding Ability as a Longitudinal Predictor of Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordström, Thomas; Jacobson, Christer; Söderberg, Pernilla

2016-01-01

This study, using a longitudinal design with a Swedish cohort of young readers, investigates if children's early word decoding ability in second grade can predict later academic performance. In an effort to estimate the unique effect of early word decoding (grade 2) with academic performance (grade 9), gender and non-verbal cognitive ability were…

The UCSD Shortness of Breath Questionnaire has Longitudinal Construct Validity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Swigris, Jeffrey J.; Han, Meilan; Vij, Rekha; Noth, Imre; Eisenstein, Eric L.; Anstrom, Kevin J.; Brown, Kevin K.; Fairclough, Diane

2012-01-01

Background Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive interstitial lung disease that often causes disabling dyspnea. In IPF and other lung diseases, patient-reported outcomes (PROs)—questionnaires designed to gather information from the patient's perspective—can determine whether therapies affect dyspnea or other outcomes meaningful to patients. Before a PRO can be used confidently as an outcome measure in a longitudinal trial, studies must demonstrate the PRO's ability to capture change over time in the target population. Our goal in this study was to examine whether the UCSD Shortness of Breath Questionnaire does so in patients with IPF. Methods We used data from the Sildenafil Trial of Exercise Performance in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (STEP-IPF) to perform analyses that examined associations between UCSD scores and five external measures (anchors) at baseline and over time. Anchors included the Activity domain from St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ-A), the Physical Functioning domain from the SF-36 (SF36-PF), forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), and distance walked during a timed walk test (6MWD). Linear regression models were used to examine relationships between UCSD scores and anchors over time. Results At baseline, UCSD scores were weakly correlated with percent predicted FVC (−0.21, p=0.005) and percent predicted DLCO (−0.20, p=0.008), moderately correlated with 6MWD (−0.39, p<0.0001) and strongly correlated with SGRQ-A (0.79, p<0.0001) and SF36-PF (−0.72, p<0.0001). Change over time in UCSD scores was associated with change in FVC (estimate=2.54, standard error [SE]=1.23, p=0.04), SGRQ-A (estimate=7.94, SE=1.11, p<0.0001), SF36-PF (estimate=6.00, SE=1.13, p<0.0001), and 6MWD (estimate=4.23, SE=1.18, p=0.0004) but not DLCO (estimate=0.33, SE=1.33, p=0.80). Conclusions These results support the validity of the UCSD to assess change in dyspnea over time in patients with IPF. PMID:22801586

Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

2017-07-01

We estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV’s ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely—from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city’s estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results, we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.

Psychophysical evidence for the number sense

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

It is now clear that most animals, including humans, possess an ability to rapidly estimate number. Some have questioned whether this ability arises from dedicated numerosity mechanisms, or is derived indirectly from judgements of density or other attributes. We describe a series of psychophysical experiments, largely using adaptation techniques, which demonstrate clearly the existence of a number sense in humans. The number sense is truly general, extending over space, time and sensory modality, and is closely linked with action. We further show that when multiple cues are present, numerosity emerges as the natural dimension for discrimination. However, when element density increases past a certain level, the elements become too crowded to parse, and the scene is perceived as a texture rather than array of elements. The two different regimes are psychophysically discriminable in that they follow distinct psychophysical laws, and show different dependencies on eccentricity, luminance levels and effects of perceptual grouping. The distinction is important, as the ability to discriminate numerosity, but not texture, correlates with formal maths skills. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue ‘The origins of numerical abilities’. PMID:29292350

Competitive Abilities in Experimental Microcosms Are Accurately Predicted by a Demographic Index for R*

PubMed Central

Murrell, Ebony G.; Juliano, Steven A.

2012-01-01

Resource competition theory predicts that R*, the equilibrium resource amount yielding zero growth of a consumer population, should predict species' competitive abilities for that resource. This concept has been supported for unicellular organisms, but has not been well-tested for metazoans, probably due to the difficulty of raising experimental populations to equilibrium and measuring population growth rates for species with long or complex life cycles. We developed an index (Rindex) of R* based on demography of one insect cohort, growing from egg to adult in a non-equilibrium setting, and tested whether Rindex yielded accurate predictions of competitive abilities using mosquitoes as a model system. We estimated finite rate of increase (λ′) from demographic data for cohorts of three mosquito species raised with different detritus amounts, and estimated each species' Rindex using nonlinear regressions of λ′ vs. initial detritus amount. All three species' Rindex differed significantly, and accurately predicted competitive hierarchy of the species determined in simultaneous pairwise competition experiments. Our Rindex could provide estimates and rigorous statistical comparisons of competitive ability for organisms for which typical chemostat methods and equilibrium population conditions are impractical. PMID:22970128

Unraveling the barriers to reconceptualization of the problem in chronic pain: the actual and perceived ability of patients and health professionals to understand the neurophysiology.

PubMed

Moseley, Lorimer

2003-05-01

To identify why reconceptualization of the problem is difficult in chronic pain, this study aimed to evaluate whether (1) health professionals and patients can understand currently accurate information about the neurophysiology of pain and (2) health professionals accurately estimate the ability of patients to understand the neurophysiology of pain. Knowledge tests were completed by 276 patients with chronic pain and 288 professionals either before (untrained) or after (trained) education about the neurophysiology of pain. Professionals estimated typical patient performance on the test. Untrained participants performed poorly (mean +/- standard deviation, 55% +/- 19% and 29% +/- 12% for professionals and patients, respectively), compared to their trained counterparts (78% +/- 21% and 61% +/- 19%, respectively). The estimated patient score (46% +/- 18%) was less than the actual patient score (P <.005). The results suggest that professionals and patients can understand the neurophysiology of pain but professionals underestimate patients' ability to understand. The implications are that (1) a poor knowledge of currently accurate information about pain and (2) the underestimation of patients' ability to understand currently accurate information about pain represent barriers to reconceptualization of the problem in chronic pain within the clinical and lay arenas.

Academic abilities and glycaemic control in children and young people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Semenkovich, K; Patel, P P; Pollock, A B; Beach, K A; Nelson, S; Masterson, J J; Hershey, T; Arbeláez, A M

2016-05-01

To determine if children and young people aged < 23 years with Type 1 diabetes differ in academic ability from age-matched control subjects without Type 1 diabetes and whether academic scores are related to glycaemic control. Using a cross-sectional study design, we administered cognitive and academic tests (Woodcock-Johnson III Spatial Relations, General Information, Letter-Word Recognition, Calculation and Spelling tests) to young people with Type 1 diabetes (n=61) and control subjects (n=26) aged 9-22 years. The groups did not differ in age or gender. Participants with Type 1 diabetes had a disease duration of 5-17.7 years. History of glycaemic control (HbA1c , diabetic ketoacidosis and severe hypoglycaemic episodes) was obtained via medical records and interviews. The participants with Type 1 diabetes had a lower mean estimated verbal intelligence (IQ) level compared with those in the control group (P=0.04). Greater exposure to hyperglycaemia over time was associated with lower spelling abilities within the group with Type 1 diabetes (P=0.048), even after controlling for age, gender, socio-economic status, blood glucose level at time of testing and verbal IQ (P=0.01). History of severe hypoglycaemia or ketoacidosis was not associated with differences in academic abilities. In children and young people, Type 1 diabetes was associated with a lower verbal IQ. Moreover, increased exposure to hyperglycaemia was associated with lower spelling performance. These results imply that hyperglycaemia can affect cognitive function and/or learning processes that may affect academic achievement. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Impact of early and concurrent stunting on cognition.

PubMed

Crookston, Benjamin T; Dearden, Kirk A; Alder, Stephen C; Porucznik, Christina A; Stanford, Joseph B; Merrill, Ray M; Dickerson, Ty T; Penny, Mary E

2011-10-01

Undernutrition is associated with poor cognitive development, late entry into school, decreased years of schooling, reduced productivity and smaller adult stature. We use longitudinal data from 1674 Peruvian children participating in the Young Lives study to assess the relative impact of early stunting (stunted at 6-18 months of age) and concurrent stunting (stunted at 4.5-6 years of age) on cognitive ability. Anthropometric data were longitudinally collected for children at 6-18 months of age and 4.5-6 years of age at which time verbal and quantitative ability were also assessed. We estimate that an increase in concurrent height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) by one standard deviation was associated with an increase in a child's score on the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) by 2.35 points [confidence interval (CI): 1.55-3.15] and a 0.16 point increase on the cognitive development assessment (CDA) (CI: 0.05-0.27). Furthermore, we report that the estimate for concurrent HAZ and PPVT is significantly higher than the estimate for early stunting and PPVT. We found no significant difference between early and concurrent estimates for HAZ and CDA. Children from older mothers, children whose mothers had higher education levels, children living in urban areas, children who attended pre-school, children with fewer siblings and children from wealthier backgrounds scored higher on both assessments. Cognitive skills of children entering school were associated with early stunting but the strongest association was found with concurrent stunting suggesting that interventions preventing linear growth faltering should not only focus on the under 2s but include children up to 5 years of age. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data.

PubMed

Hansen, Matthew C; Stehman, Stephen V; Potapov, Peter V; Loveland, Thomas R; Townshend, John R G; DeFries, Ruth S; Pittman, Kyle W; Arunarwati, Belinda; Stolle, Fred; Steininger, Marc K; Carroll, Mark; Dimiceli, Charlene

2008-07-08

Forest cover is an important input variable for assessing changes to carbon stocks, climate and hydrological systems, biodiversity richness, and other sustainability science disciplines. Despite incremental improvements in our ability to quantify rates of forest clearing, there is still no definitive understanding on global trends. Without timely and accurate forest monitoring methods, policy responses will be uninformed concerning the most basic facts of forest cover change. Results of a feasible and cost-effective monitoring strategy are presented that enable timely, precise, and internally consistent estimates of forest clearing within the humid tropics. A probability-based sampling approach that synergistically employs low and high spatial resolution satellite datasets was used to quantify humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005. Forest clearing is estimated to be 1.39% (SE 0.084%) of the total biome area. This translates to an estimated forest area cleared of 27.2 million hectares (SE 2.28 million hectares), and represents a 2.36% reduction in area of humid tropical forest. Fifty-five percent of total biome clearing occurs within only 6% of the biome area, emphasizing the presence of forest clearing "hotspots." Forest loss in Brazil accounts for 47.8% of total biome clearing, nearly four times that of the next highest country, Indonesia, which accounts for 12.8%. Over three-fifths of clearing occurs in Latin America and over one-third in Asia. Africa contributes 5.4% to the estimated loss of humid tropical forest cover, reflecting the absence of current agro-industrial scale clearing in humid tropical Africa.

Basic numerical capacities and prevalence of developmental dyscalculia: the Havana Survey.

PubMed

Reigosa-Crespo, Vivian; Valdés-Sosa, Mitchell; Butterworth, Brian; Estévez, Nancy; Rodríguez, Marisol; Santos, Elsa; Torres, Paul; Suárez, Ramón; Lage, Agustín

2012-01-01

The association of enumeration and number comparison capacities with arithmetical competence was examined in a large sample of children from 2nd to 9th grades. It was found that efficiency on numerical capacities predicted separately more than 25% of the variance in the individual differences on a timed arithmetical test, and this occurred for both younger and older learners. These capacities were also significant predictors of individual variations in an untimed curriculum-based math achievement test and on the teacher scores of math performance over developmental time. Based on these findings, these numerical capacities were used for estimating the prevalence and gender ratio of basic numerical deficits and developmental dyscalculia (DD) over the grade range defined above (N = 11,652 children). The extent to which DD affects the population with poor ability on calculation was also examined. For this purpose, the prevalence and gender ratio of arithmetical dysfluency (AD) were estimated in the same cohort. The estimated prevalence of DD was 3.4%, and the male:female ratio was 4:1. However, the prevalence of AD was almost 3 times as high (9.35%), and no gender differences were found (male:female ratio = 1.07:1). Basic numerical deficits affect 4.54% of school-age population and affect more boys than girls (2.4:1). The differences between the corresponding estimates were highly significant (α < .01). Based on these contrastive findings, it is concluded that DD, defined as a defective sense of numerosity, could be a distinctive disorder that affects only a portion of children with AD.

Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Matthew C.; Stehman, S.V.; Potapov, Peter V.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Townshend, J.R.G.; DeFries, R.S.; Pittman, K.W.; Arunarwati, B.; Stolle, F.; Steininger, M.K.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2008-01-01

Forest cover is an important input variable for assessing changes to carbon stocks, climate and hydrological systems, biodiversity richness, and other sustainability science disciplines. Despite incremental improvements in our ability to quantify rates of forest clearing, there is still no definitive understanding on global trends. Without timely and accurate forest monitoring methods, policy responses will be uninformed concerning the most basic facts of forest cover change. Results of a feasible and cost-effective monitoring strategy are presented that enable timely, precise, and internally consistent estimates of forest clearing within the humid tropics. A probability-based sampling approach that synergistically employs low and high spatial resolution satellite datasets was used to quantify humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005. Forest clearing is estimated to be 1.39% (SE 0.084%) of the total biome area. This translates to an estimated forest area cleared of 27.2 million hectares (SE 2.28 million hectares), and represents a 2.36% reduction in area of humid tropical forest. Fifty-five percent of total biome clearing occurs within only 6% of the biome area, emphasizing the presence of forest clearing “hotspots.” Forest loss in Brazil accounts for 47.8% of total biome clearing, nearly four times that of the next highest country, Indonesia, which accounts for 12.8%. Over three-fifths of clearing occurs in Latin America and over one-third in Asia. Africa contributes 5.4% to the estimated loss of humid tropical forest cover, reflecting the absence of current agro-industrial scale clearing in humid tropical Africa.

Excitations for Rapidly Estimating Flight-Control Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moes, Tim; Smith, Mark; Morelli, Gene

2006-01-01

A flight test on an F-15 airplane was performed to evaluate the utility of prescribed simultaneous independent surface excitations (PreSISE) for real-time estimation of flight-control parameters, including stability and control derivatives. The ability to extract these derivatives in nearly real time is needed to support flight demonstration of intelligent flight-control system (IFCS) concepts under development at NASA, in academia, and in industry. Traditionally, flight maneuvers have been designed and executed to obtain estimates of stability and control derivatives by use of a post-flight analysis technique. For an IFCS, it is required to be able to modify control laws in real time for an aircraft that has been damaged in flight (because of combat, weather, or a system failure). The flight test included PreSISE maneuvers, during which all desired control surfaces are excited simultaneously, but at different frequencies, resulting in aircraft motions about all coordinate axes. The objectives of the test were to obtain data for post-flight analysis and to perform the analysis to determine: 1) The accuracy of derivatives estimated by use of PreSISE, 2) The required durations of PreSISE inputs, and 3) The minimum required magnitudes of PreSISE inputs. The PreSISE inputs in the flight test consisted of stacked sine-wave excitations at various frequencies, including symmetric and differential excitations of canard and stabilator control surfaces and excitations of aileron and rudder control surfaces of a highly modified F-15 airplane. Small, medium, and large excitations were tested in 15-second maneuvers at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speeds. Typical excitations are shown in Figure 1. Flight-test data were analyzed by use of pEst, which is an industry-standard output-error technique developed by Dryden Flight Research Center. Data were also analyzed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR), which was developed for onboard, real-time estimation of the derivatives.

Standard Errors of Estimated Latent Variable Scores with Estimated Structural Parameters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoshino, Takahiro; Shigemasu, Kazuo

2008-01-01

The authors propose a concise formula to evaluate the standard error of the estimated latent variable score when the true values of the structural parameters are not known and must be estimated. The formula can be applied to factor scores in factor analysis or ability parameters in item response theory, without bootstrap or Markov chain Monte…

Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

2013-04-01

National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that estimates of current climate variability and related risks, although also associated with substantial uncertainty, can be interpreted as a baseline for very uncertain future projections.

Using dynamic Brownian bridge movement modelling to measure temporal patterns of habitat selection.

PubMed

Byrne, Michael E; Clint McCoy, J; Hinton, Joseph W; Chamberlain, Michael J; Collier, Bret A

2014-09-01

Accurately describing animal space use is vital to understanding how wildlife use habitat. Improvements in GPS technology continue to facilitate collection of telemetry data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Application of the recently introduced dynamic Brownian bridge movement model (dBBMM) to such data is promising as the method explicitly incorporates the behavioural heterogeneity of a movement path into the estimated utilization distribution (UD). Utilization distributions defining space use are normally estimated for time-scales ranging from weeks to months, obscuring much of the fine-scale information available from high-volume GPS data sets. By accounting for movement heterogeneity, the dBBMM provides a rigorous, behaviourally based estimate of space use between each set of relocations. Focusing on UDs generated between individual sets of locations allows us to quantify fine-scale circadian variation in habitat use. We used the dBBMM to estimate UDs bounding individual time steps for three terrestrial species with different life histories to illustrate how the method can be used to identify fine-scale variations in habitat use. We also demonstrate how dBBMMs can be used to characterize circadian patterns of habitat selection and link fine-scale patterns of habitat use to behaviour. We observed circadian patterns of habitat use that varied seasonally for a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and coyote (Canis latrans). We found seasonal patterns in selection by the white-tailed deer and were able to link use of conifer forests and agricultural fields to behavioural state of the coyote. Additionally, we were able to quantify the date in which a Rio Grande wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) initiated laying as well as when during the day, she was most likely to visit the nest site to deposit eggs. The ability to quantify circadian patterns of habitat use may have important implications for research and management of wildlife. Additionally, the ability to link such patterns to behaviour may aid in the development of mechanistic models of habitat selection. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

New alternatives for reference evapotranspiration estimation in West Africa using limited weather data and ancillary data supply strategies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landeras, Gorka; Bekoe, Emmanuel; Ampofo, Joseph; Logah, Frederick; Diop, Mbaye; Cisse, Madiama; Shiri, Jalal

2018-05-01

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration ( ET 0 ) is essential for the computation of crop water requirements, irrigation scheduling, and water resources management. In this context, having a battery of alternative local calibrated ET 0 estimation methods is of great interest for any irrigation advisory service. The development of irrigation advisory services will be a major breakthrough for West African agriculture. In the case of many West African countries, the high number of meteorological inputs required by the Penman-Monteith equation has been indicated as constraining. The present paper investigates for the first time in Ghana, the estimation ability of artificial intelligence-based models (Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Gene Expression Programing (GEPs)), and ancillary/external approaches for modeling reference evapotranspiration ( ET 0 ) using limited weather data. According to the results of this study, GEPs have emerged as a very interesting alternative for ET 0 estimation at all the locations of Ghana which have been evaluated in this study under different scenarios of meteorological data availability. The adoption of ancillary/external approaches has been also successful, moreover in the southern locations. The interesting results obtained in this study using GEPs and some ancillary approaches could be a reference for future studies about ET 0 estimation in West Africa.

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Primary care physician shortages could be eliminated through use of teams, nonphysicians, and electronic communication.

PubMed

Green, Linda V; Savin, Sergei; Lu, Yina

2013-01-01

Most existing estimates of the shortage of primary care physicians are based on simple ratios, such as one physician for every 2,500 patients. These estimates do not consider the impact of such ratios on patients' ability to get timely access to care. They also do not quantify the impact of changing patient demographics on the demand side and alternative methods of delivering care on the supply side. We used simulation methods to provide estimates of the number of primary care physicians needed, based on a comprehensive analysis considering access, demographics, and changing practice patterns. We show that the implementation of some increasingly popular operational changes in the ways clinicians deliver care-including the use of teams or "pods," better information technology and sharing of data, and the use of nonphysicians-have the potential to offset completely the increase in demand for physician services while improving access to care, thereby averting a primary care physician shortage.

[Perception by teenagers and adults of the changed by amplitude sound sequences used in models of movement of the sound source].

PubMed

Andreeva, I G; Vartanian, I A

2012-01-01

The ability to evaluate direction of amplitude changes of sound stimuli was studied in adults and in the 11-12- and 15-16-year old teenagers. The stimuli representing sequences of fragments of the tone of 1 kHz, whose amplitude is changing with time, are used as model of approach and withdrawal of the sound sources. The 11-12-year old teenagers at estimation of direction of amplitude changes were shown to make the significantly higher number of errors as compared with two other examined groups, including those in repeated experiments. The structure of errors - the ratio of the portion of errors at estimation of increasing and decreasing by amplitude stimulus - turned out to be different in teenagers and in adults. The question is discussed about the effect of unspecific activation of the large hemisphere cortex in teenagers on processes if taking solution about the complex sound stimulus, including a possibility estimation of approach and withdrawal of the sound source.

Generalized shrunken type-GM estimator and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C. Z.; Du, Y. L.

2014-03-01

The parameter estimation problem in linear model is considered when multicollinearity and outliers exist simultaneously. A class of new robust biased estimator, Generalized Shrunken Type-GM Estimation, with their calculated methods are established by combination of GM estimator and biased estimator include Ridge estimate, Principal components estimate and Liu estimate and so on. A numerical example shows that the most attractive advantage of these new estimators is that they can not only overcome the multicollinearity of coefficient matrix and outliers but also have the ability to control the influence of leverage points.

Human behavioral complexity peaks at age 25

PubMed Central

Brugger, Peter

2017-01-01

Random Item Generation tasks (RIG) are commonly used to assess high cognitive abilities such as inhibition or sustained attention. They also draw upon our approximate sense of complexity. A detrimental effect of aging on pseudo-random productions has been demonstrated for some tasks, but little is as yet known about the developmental curve of cognitive complexity over the lifespan. We investigate the complexity trajectory across the lifespan of human responses to five common RIG tasks, using a large sample (n = 3429). Our main finding is that the developmental curve of the estimated algorithmic complexity of responses is similar to what may be expected of a measure of higher cognitive abilities, with a performance peak around 25 and a decline starting around 60, suggesting that RIG tasks yield good estimates of such cognitive abilities. Our study illustrates that very short strings of, i.e., 10 items, are sufficient to have their complexity reliably estimated and to allow the documentation of an age-dependent decline in the approximate sense of complexity. PMID:28406953

Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter

PubMed Central

Reddy, Chinthala P.; Rathi, Yogesh

2016-01-01

Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts. PMID:27147956

Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter.

PubMed

Reddy, Chinthala P; Rathi, Yogesh

2016-01-01

Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts.

Estimating snow water equivalent (SWE) using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deeb, Elias J.

Since the early 1990s, radar interferometry and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) have been used extensively to measure changes in the Earth's surface. Previous research has presented theory for estimating snow properties, including potential for snow water equivalent (SWE) retrieval, using InSAR. The motivation behind using remote sensing to estimate SWE is to provide a more complete, continuous set of "observations" to assist in water management operations, climate change studies, and flood hazard forecasting. The research presented here primarily investigates the feasibility of using the InSAR technique at two different wavelengths (C-Band and L-Band) for SWE retrieval of dry snow within the Kuparuk watershed, North Slope, Alaska. Estimating snow distribution around meteorological towers on the coastal plain using a three-day repeat orbit of C-Band InSAR data was successful (Chapter 2). A longer wavelength L-band SAR is evaluated for SWE retrievals (Chapter 3) showing the ability to resolve larger snow accumulation events over a longer period of time. Comparisons of InSAR estimates and late spring manual sampling of SWE show a R2 = 0.61 when a coherence threshold is used to eliminate noisy SAR data. Qualitative comparisons with a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) highlight areas of scour on windward slopes and areas of deposition on leeward slopes. When compared to a mid-winter transect of manually sampled snow depths, the InSAR SWE estimates yield a RMSE of 2.21cm when a bulk snow density is used and corrections for bracketing the satellite acquisition timing is performed. In an effort to validate the interaction of radar waves with a snowpack, the importance of the "dry snow" assumption for the estimation of SWE using InSAR is tested with an experiment in Little Cottonwood Canyon, Alta, Utah (Chapter 5). Snow wetness is shown to have a significant effect on the velocity of propagation within the snowpack. Despite the radar interaction with the snowpack being complex, the methodology for using InSAR to estimate SWE shows great promise when considering NASA's proposed L-Band, weekly repeat time interval, interferometric DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice) mission.

Test battery for measuring the perception and recognition of facial expressions of emotion

PubMed Central

Wilhelm, Oliver; Hildebrandt, Andrea; Manske, Karsten; Schacht, Annekathrin; Sommer, Werner

2014-01-01

Despite the importance of perceiving and recognizing facial expressions in everyday life, there is no comprehensive test battery for the multivariate assessment of these abilities. As a first step toward such a compilation, we present 16 tasks that measure the perception and recognition of facial emotion expressions, and data illustrating each task's difficulty and reliability. The scoring of these tasks focuses on either the speed or accuracy of performance. A sample of 269 healthy young adults completed all tasks. In general, accuracy and reaction time measures for emotion-general scores showed acceptable and high estimates of internal consistency and factor reliability. Emotion-specific scores yielded lower reliabilities, yet high enough to encourage further studies with such measures. Analyses of task difficulty revealed that all tasks are suitable for measuring emotion perception and emotion recognition related abilities in normal populations. PMID:24860528

Filtering Data Based on Human-Inspired Forgetting.

PubMed

Freedman, S T; Adams, J A

2011-12-01

Robots are frequently presented with vast arrays of diverse data. Unfortunately, perfect memory and recall provides a mixed blessing. While flawless recollection of episodic data allows increased reasoning, photographic memory can hinder a robot's ability to operate in real-time dynamic environments. Human-inspired forgetting methods may enable robotic systems to rid themselves of out-dated, irrelevant, and erroneous data. This paper presents the use of human-inspired forgetting to act as a filter, removing unnecessary, erroneous, and out-of-date information. The novel ActSimple forgetting algorithm has been developed specifically to provide effective forgetting capabilities to robotic systems. This paper presents the ActSimple algorithm and how it was optimized and tested in a WiFi signal strength estimation task. The results generated by real-world testing suggest that human-inspired forgetting is an effective means of improving the ability of mobile robots to move and operate within complex and dynamic environments.

Effects of visual cues of object density on perception and anticipatory control of dexterous manipulation.

PubMed

Crajé, Céline; Santello, Marco; Gordon, Andrew M

2013-01-01

Anticipatory force planning during grasping is based on visual cues about the object's physical properties and sensorimotor memories of previous actions with grasped objects. Vision can be used to estimate object mass based on the object size to identify and recall sensorimotor memories of previously manipulated objects. It is not known whether subjects can use density cues to identify the object's center of mass (CM) and create compensatory moments in an anticipatory fashion during initial object lifts to prevent tilt. We asked subjects (n = 8) to estimate CM location of visually symmetric objects of uniform densities (plastic or brass, symmetric CM) and non-uniform densities (mixture of plastic and brass, asymmetric CM). We then asked whether subjects can use density cues to scale fingertip forces when lifting the visually symmetric objects of uniform and non-uniform densities. Subjects were able to accurately estimate an object's center of mass based on visual density cues. When the mass distribution was uniform, subjects could scale their fingertip forces in an anticipatory fashion based on the estimation. However, despite their ability to explicitly estimate CM location when object density was non-uniform, subjects were unable to scale their fingertip forces to create a compensatory moment and prevent tilt on initial lifts. Hefting object parts in the hand before the experiment did not affect this ability. This suggests a dichotomy between the ability to accurately identify the object's CM location for objects with non-uniform density cues and the ability to utilize this information to correctly scale their fingertip forces. These results are discussed in the context of possible neural mechanisms underlying sensorimotor integration linking visual cues and anticipatory control of grasping.

A Steady-State Kalman Predictor-Based Filtering Strategy for Non-Overlapping Sub-Band Spectral Estimation

PubMed Central

Li, Zenghui; Xu, Bin; Yang, Jian; Song, Jianshe

2015-01-01

This paper focuses on suppressing spectral overlap for sub-band spectral estimation, with which we can greatly decrease the computational complexity of existing spectral estimation algorithms, such as nonlinear least squares spectral analysis and non-quadratic regularized sparse representation. Firstly, our study shows that the nominal ability of the high-order analysis filter to suppress spectral overlap is greatly weakened when filtering a finite-length sequence, because many meaningless zeros are used as samples in convolution operations. Next, an extrapolation-based filtering strategy is proposed to produce a series of estimates as the substitutions of the zeros and to recover the suppression ability. Meanwhile, a steady-state Kalman predictor is applied to perform a linearly-optimal extrapolation. Finally, several typical methods for spectral analysis are applied to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy. PMID:25609038

Estimating Turbulent Surface Fluxes from Small Unmanned Aircraft: Evaluation of Current Abilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, G.; Lawrence, D.; Elston, J.; Cassano, J. J.; Mack, J.; Wildmann, N.; Nigro, M. A.; Ivey, M.; Wolfe, D. E.; Muschinski, A.

2014-12-01

Heat transfer between the atmosphere and Earth's surface represents a key component to understanding Earth energy balance, making it important in understanding and simulating climate. Arguably, the oceanic air-sea interface and Polar sea-ice-air interface are amongst the most challenging in which to measure these fluxes. This difficulty results partially from challenges associated with infrastructure deployment on these surfaces and partially from an inability to obtain spatially representative values over a potentially inhomogeneous surface. Traditionally sensible (temperature) and latent (moisture) fluxes are estimated using one of several techniques. A preferred method involves eddy-correlation where cross-correlation between anomalies in vertical motion (w) and temperature (T) or moisture (q) is used to estimate heat transfer. High-frequency measurements of these quantities can be derived using tower-mounted instrumentation. Such systems have historically been deployed over land surfaces or on ships and buoys to calculate fluxes at the air-land or air-sea interface, but such deployments are expensive and challenging to execute, resulting in a lack of spatially diverse measurements. A second ("bulk") technique involves the observation of horizontal windspeed, temperature and moisture at a given altitude over an extended time period in order to estimate the surface fluxes. Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) represent a unique platform from which to derive these fluxes. These sUAS can be small ( 1 m), lightweight ( 700 g), low cost ( $2000) and relatively easy to deploy to remote locations and over inhomogeneous surfaces. We will give an overview of the ability of sUAS to provide measurements necessary for estimating surface turbulent fluxes. This discussion is based on flights in the vicinity of the 1000 ft. Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) tower, and over the US Department of Energy facility at Oliktok Point, Alaska. We will present initial comparisons between UAS-derived turbulent fluxes and those derived from tower-based instrumentation and discuss differences in the context of sensor technology and flight patterns employed to collect data.

Quantitative Comparison of PET and Bremsstrahlung SPECT for Imaging the In Vivo Yttrium-90 Microsphere Distribution after Liver Radioembolization

PubMed Central

Elschot, Mattijs; Vermolen, Bart J.; Lam, Marnix G. E. H.; de Keizer, Bart; van den Bosch, Maurice A. A. J.; de Jong, Hugo W. A. M.

2013-01-01

Background After yttrium-90 (90Y) microsphere radioembolization (RE), evaluation of extrahepatic activity and liver dosimetry is typically performed on 90Y Bremsstrahlung SPECT images. Since these images demonstrate a low quantitative accuracy, 90Y PET has been suggested as an alternative. The aim of this study is to quantitatively compare SPECT and state-of-the-art PET on the ability to detect small accumulations of 90Y and on the accuracy of liver dosimetry. Methodology/Principal Findings SPECT/CT and PET/CT phantom data were acquired using several acquisition and reconstruction protocols, including resolution recovery and Time-Of-Flight (TOF) PET. Image contrast and noise were compared using a torso-shaped phantom containing six hot spheres of various sizes. The ability to detect extra- and intrahepatic accumulations of activity was tested by quantitative evaluation of the visibility and unique detectability of the phantom hot spheres. Image-based dose estimates of the phantom were compared to the true dose. For clinical illustration, the SPECT and PET-based estimated liver dose distributions of five RE patients were compared. At equal noise level, PET showed higher contrast recovery coefficients than SPECT. The highest contrast recovery coefficients were obtained with TOF PET reconstruction including resolution recovery. All six spheres were consistently visible on SPECT and PET images, but PET was able to uniquely detect smaller spheres than SPECT. TOF PET-based estimates of the dose in the phantom spheres were more accurate than SPECT-based dose estimates, with underestimations ranging from 45% (10-mm sphere) to 11% (37-mm sphere) for PET, and 75% to 58% for SPECT, respectively. The differences between TOF PET and SPECT dose-estimates were supported by the patient data. Conclusions/Significance In this study we quantitatively demonstrated that the image quality of state-of-the-art PET is superior over Bremsstrahlung SPECT for the assessment of the 90Y microsphere distribution after radioembolization. PMID:23405207

Central tendency effects in time interval reproduction in autism

PubMed Central

Karaminis, Themelis; Cicchini, Guido Marco; Neil, Louise; Cappagli, Giulia; Aagten-Murphy, David; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Central tendency, the tendency of judgements of quantities (lengths, durations etc.) to gravitate towards their mean, is one of the most robust perceptual effects. A Bayesian account has recently suggested that central tendency reflects the integration of noisy sensory estimates with prior knowledge representations of a mean stimulus, serving to improve performance. The process is flexible, so prior knowledge is weighted more heavily when sensory estimates are imprecise, requiring more integration to reduce noise. In this study we measure central tendency in autism to evaluate a recent theoretical hypothesis suggesting that autistic perception relies less on prior knowledge representations than typical perception. If true, autistic children should show reduced central tendency than theoretically predicted from their temporal resolution. We tested autistic and age- and ability-matched typical children in two child-friendly tasks: (1) a time interval reproduction task, measuring central tendency in the temporal domain; and (2) a time discrimination task, assessing temporal resolution. Central tendency reduced with age in typical development, while temporal resolution improved. Autistic children performed far worse in temporal discrimination than the matched controls. Computational simulations suggested that central tendency was much less in autistic children than predicted by theoretical modelling, given their poor temporal resolution. PMID:27349722

Inference of Vohradský's Models of Genetic Networks by Solving Two-Dimensional Function Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

Kimura, Shuhei; Sato, Masanao; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko

2013-01-01

The inference of a genetic network is a problem in which mutual interactions among genes are inferred from time-series of gene expression levels. While a number of models have been proposed to describe genetic networks, this study focuses on a mathematical model proposed by Vohradský. Because of its advantageous features, several researchers have proposed the inference methods based on Vohradský's model. When trying to analyze large-scale networks consisting of dozens of genes, however, these methods must solve high-dimensional non-linear function optimization problems. In order to resolve the difficulty of estimating the parameters of the Vohradský's model, this study proposes a new method that defines the problem as several two-dimensional function optimization problems. Through numerical experiments on artificial genetic network inference problems, we showed that, although the computation time of the proposed method is not the shortest, the method has the ability to estimate parameters of Vohradský's models more effectively with sufficiently short computation times. This study then applied the proposed method to an actual inference problem of the bacterial SOS DNA repair system, and succeeded in finding several reasonable regulations. PMID:24386175

Dynamic connectivity regression: Determining state-related changes in brain connectivity

PubMed Central

Cribben, Ivor; Haraldsdottir, Ragnheidur; Atlas, Lauren Y.; Wager, Tor D.; Lindquist, Martin A.

2014-01-01

Most statistical analyses of fMRI data assume that the nature, timing and duration of the psychological processes being studied are known. However, often it is hard to specify this information a priori. In this work we introduce a data-driven technique for partitioning the experimental time course into distinct temporal intervals with different multivariate functional connectivity patterns between a set of regions of interest (ROIs). The technique, called Dynamic Connectivity Regression (DCR), detects temporal change points in functional connectivity and estimates a graph, or set of relationships between ROIs, for data in the temporal partition that falls between pairs of change points. Hence, DCR allows for estimation of both the time of change in connectivity and the connectivity graph for each partition, without requiring prior knowledge of the nature of the experimental design. Permutation and bootstrapping methods are used to perform inference on the change points. The method is applied to various simulated data sets as well as to an fMRI data set from a study (N=26) of a state anxiety induction using a socially evaluative threat challenge. The results illustrate the method’s ability to observe how the networks between different brain regions changed with subjects’ emotional state. PMID:22484408

Heart Rate Variability Can Be Used to Estimate Sleepiness-related Decrements in Psychomotor Vigilance during Total Sleep Deprivation

PubMed Central

Chua, Eric Chern-Pin; Tan, Wen-Qi; Yeo, Sing-Chen; Lau, Pauline; Lee, Ivan; Mien, Ivan Ho; Puvanendran, Kathiravelu; Gooley, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

Study Objectives: To assess whether changes in psychomotor vigilance during sleep deprivation can be estimated using heart rate variability (HRV). Design: HRV, ocular, and electroencephalogram (EEG) measures were compared for their ability to predict lapses on the Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT). Setting: Chronobiology and Sleep Laboratory, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore. Participants: Twenty-four healthy Chinese men (mean age ± SD = 25.9 ± 2.8 years). Interventions: Subjects were kept awake continuously for 40 hours under constant environmental conditions. Every 2 hours, subjects completed a 10-minute PVT to assess their ability to sustain visual attention. Measurements and Results: During each PVT, we examined the electrocardiogram (ECG), EEG, and percentage of time that the eyes were closed (PERCLOS). Similar to EEG power density and PERCLOS measures, the time course of ECG RR-interval power density in the 0.02- 0.08-Hz range correlated with the 40-hour profile of PVT lapses. Based on receiver operating characteristic curves, RR-interval power density performed as well as EEG power density at identifying a sleepiness-related increase in PVT lapses above threshold. RR-interval power density (0.02-0.08 Hz) also classified subject performance with sensitivity and specificity similar to that of PERCLOS. Conclusions: The ECG carries information about a person's vigilance state. Hence, HRV measures could potentially be used to predict when an individual is at increased risk of attentional failure. Our results suggest that HRV monitoring, either alone or in combination with other physiologic measures, could be incorporated into safety devices to warn drowsy operators when their performance is impaired. Citation: Chua ECP; Tan WQ; Yeo SC; Lau P; Lee I; Mien IH; Puvanendran K; Gooley JJ. Heart rate variability can be used to estimate sleepiness-related decrements in psychomotor vigilance during total sleep deprivation. SLEEP 2012;35(3):325-334. PMID:22379238

Estimation of Electrically-Evoked Knee Torque from Mechanomyography Using Support Vector Regression.

PubMed

Ibitoye, Morufu Olusola; Hamzaid, Nur Azah; Abdul Wahab, Ahmad Khairi; Hasnan, Nazirah; Olatunji, Sunday Olusanya; Davis, Glen M

2016-07-19

The difficulty of real-time muscle force or joint torque estimation during neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) in physical therapy and exercise science has motivated recent research interest in torque estimation from other muscle characteristics. This study investigated the accuracy of a computational intelligence technique for estimating NMES-evoked knee extension torque based on the Mechanomyographic signals (MMG) of contracting muscles that were recorded from eight healthy males. Simulation of the knee torque was modelled via Support Vector Regression (SVR) due to its good generalization ability in related fields. Inputs to the proposed model were MMG amplitude characteristics, the level of electrical stimulation or contraction intensity, and knee angle. Gaussian kernel function, as well as its optimal parameters were identified with the best performance measure and were applied as the SVR kernel function to build an effective knee torque estimation model. To train and test the model, the data were partitioned into training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets, respectively. The SVR estimation accuracy, based on the coefficient of determination (R²) between the actual and the estimated torque values was up to 94% and 89% during the training and testing cases, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 9.48 and 12.95, respectively. The knee torque estimations obtained using SVR modelling agreed well with the experimental data from an isokinetic dynamometer. These findings support the realization of a closed-loop NMES system for functional tasks using MMG as the feedback signal source and an SVR algorithm for joint torque estimation.

An Evaluation of Empirical Bayes' Estimation of Value- Added Teacher Performance Measures. Working Paper #31. Revised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Maxfield, Michelle; Reckase, Mark D.; Thompson, Paul; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

Empirical Bayes' (EB) estimation is a widely used procedure to calculate teacher value-added. It is primarily viewed as a way to make imprecise estimates more reliable. In this paper we review the theory of EB estimation and use simulated data to study its ability to properly rank teachers. We compare the performance of EB estimators with that of…

Continuous time-resolved regional methane leak detection with on-line background estimation using a novel combination of dual frequency comb laser spectroscopy and atmospheric inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alden, C. B.; Coburn, S.; Wright, R.; Baumann, E.; Cossel, K.; Sweeney, C.; Ghosh, S.; Newbury, N.; Prasad, K.; Coddington, I.; Rieker, G. B.

2017-12-01

Advances in natural gas extraction technology have led to increased US production and transport activity, and as a consequence, an increased need for monitoring of methane leaks. Current leak detection methods provide time snapshots, and not continuous, time-varying estimates of emissions. Most approaches also require specific atmospheric conditions, operators, or the use of a tracer gas, requiring site access. Given known intermittency in fugitive methane emissions, continuous monitoring is a critical need for emissions mitigation. We present a novel leak detection method that employs dual frequency comb spectrometry to offer continuous, autonomous, leak detection and quantification over square-km scale areas. The spectrometer is situated in a field of natural gas pads, and a series of retroreflectors around the field direct light back to a detector. The laser light spans 1620-1680 nm with 0.002 nm line spacing, measuring thousands of individual absorption features from multiple species. The result is high-stability trace gas (here CH4, CO2, and H2O) measurements over long (1 km+) open paths through the atmosphere. Measurements are used in an atmospheric inversion to estimate the time variability of emissions at each location of interest. Importantly, the measurement framework and inversion solve explicitly for background concentrations, which vary rapidly in fields of active oil and gas production. We present the results of controlled-leak field tests in rural Colorado. We demonstrate the ability to locate and size a leak located 1 km away from the spectrometer and varying in strength from 1.5 to 7.7 g/min, resulting in mean atmospheric enhancements of 20 ppb. The inversion correctly identifies when the leak turned on and off over a 24-hour period, and determines the mean leak strength to within 10% of the true controlled rate. We further demonstrate the ability of the system to correctly locate and size the start and end of simultaneous 2.7 to 4.8 g/min leaks from 2 sources in a field of 5 potential leak locations. Finally, we present the results of leak-detection tests in active oil and gas fields in the Denver Julesburg Basin, where background methane is complex.

Tuning in to Another Person's Action Capabilities: Perceiving Maximal Jumping-Reach Height from Walking Kinematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramenzoni, Veronica; Riley, Michael A.; Davis, Tehran; Shockley, Kevin; Armstrong, Rachel

2008-01-01

Three experiments investigated the ability to perceive the maximum height to which another actor could jump to reach an object. Experiment 1 determined the accuracy of estimates for another actor's maximal reach-with-jump height and compared these estimates to estimates of the actor's standing maximal reaching height and to estimates of the…

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Psychological state estimation from physiological recordings during robot-assisted gait rehabilitation.

PubMed

Koenig, Alexander; Omlin, Ximena; Zimmerli, Lukas; Sapa, Mark; Krewer, Carmen; Bolliger, Marc; Müller, Friedemann; Riener, Robert

2011-01-01

Robot-assisted treadmill training is an established intervention used to improve walking ability in patients with neurological disorders. Although it has been shown that attention to the task is a key factor for successful rehabilitation, the psychological state of patients during robot-assisted gait therapy is often neglected. We presented 17 nondisabled subjects and 10 patients with neurological disorders a virtual-reality task with varying difficulty levels to induce feelings of being bored, excited, and overstressed. We developed an approach to automatically estimate and classify a patient's psychological state, i.e., his or her mental engagement, in real time during gait training. We used psychophysiological measurements to obtain an objective measure of the current psychological state. Automatic classification was performed by a neural network. We found that heart rate, skin conductance responses, and skin temperature can be used as markers for psychological states in the presence of physical effort induced by walking. The classifier achieved a classification error of 1.4% for nondisabled subjects and 2.1% for patients with neurological disorders. Using our new method, we processed the psychological state data in real time. Our method is a first step toward real-time auto-adaptive gait training with potential to improve rehabilitation results by optimally challenging patients at all times during exercise.

Looking at the world with your ears: how do we get the size of an object from its sound?

PubMed

Grassi, Massimo; Pastore, Massimiliano; Lemaitre, Guillaume

2013-05-01

Identifying the properties of on-going events by the sound they produce is crucial for our interaction with the environment when visual information is not available. Here, we investigated the ability of listeners to estimate the size of an object (a ball) dropped on a plate with ecological listening conditions (balls were dropped in real time) and response methods (listeners estimate ball-size by drawing a disk). Previous studies had shown that listeners can veridically estimate the size of objects by the sound they produce, but it is yet unclear which acoustical index listeners use to produce their estimates. In particular, it is unclear whether listeners listen to amplitude (related to loudness) or frequency (related to the sound's brightness) domain cue to produce their estimates. In the current study, in order to understand which cue is used by the listener to recover the size of the object, we manipulated the sound source event in such a way that frequency and amplitude cues provided contrasting size-information (balls were dropped from various heights). Results showed that listeners' estimations were accurate regardless of the experimental manipulations performed in the experiments. In addition, results suggest that listeners were likely integrating frequency and amplitude acoustical cues in order to produce their estimate and although these cues were often providing contrasting size-information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance analysis of a Hartmann wavefront sensor used for sensing atmospheric turbulence statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welsh, Byron M.; Reeves, Toby D.; Roggemann, Michael C.

1997-09-01

The ability to measure atmospheric turbulence characteristics such as Fried's coherence diameter, the outer scale of turbulence, and the turbulence power law are critical for the optimized operation of adaptive optical telescopes. One approach for sensing these turbulence parameters is to use a Hartmann wavefront sensor (H-WFS) array to measure the wavefront slope structure function (SSF) . The SSF is defined as the second moment of the wavefront slope difference between any two subapertures separated in time and/or space. Accurate knowledge of the SSF allows turbulence parameters to be estimated. The H-WFS slope measurements, composed of a true slope signal corrupted by noise, are used to estimate the SSF by computing a mean square difference of slope signals from different subapertures. This computation is typically performed over a large number of H-WFS measurement frames. The quality of the SSF estimate is quantified by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the estimator. The quality of the SSF estimate then can in turn be related to the quality of the atmospheric turbulence parameter estimates. This research develops a theoretical SNR expression for the SSF estimator. This SNR is a function of H-WFS geometry, the number of temporal measurement frames, the outer scale of turbulence, the turbulence spectrum power law, and the temporal properties of the turbulence. Results are presented for various H-WFS configurations and atmospheric turbulence properties.

Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

PubMed

Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

2015-11-01

The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

Measures of rowing performance.

PubMed

Smith, T Brett; Hopkins, Will G

2012-04-01

Accurate measures of performance are important for assessing competitive athletes in practi~al and research settings. We present here a review of rowing performance measures, focusing on the errors in these measures and the implications for testing rowers. The yardstick for assessing error in a performance measure is the random variation (typical or standard error of measurement) in an elite athlete's competitive performance from race to race: ∼1.0% for time in 2000 m rowing events. There has been little research interest in on-water time trials for assessing rowing performance, owing to logistic difficulties and environmental perturbations in performance time with such tests. Mobile ergometry via instrumented oars or rowlocks should reduce these problems, but the associated errors have not yet been reported. Measurement of boat speed to monitor on-water training performance is common; one device based on global positioning system (GPS) technology contributes negligible extra random error (0.2%) in speed measured over 2000 m, but extra error is substantial (1-10%) with other GPS devices or with an impeller, especially over shorter distances. The problems with on-water testing have led to widespread use of the Concept II rowing ergometer. The standard error of the estimate of on-water 2000 m time predicted by 2000 m ergometer performance was 2.6% and 7.2% in two studies, reflecting different effects of skill, body mass and environment in on-water versus ergometer performance. However, well trained rowers have a typical error in performance time of only ∼0.5% between repeated 2000 m time trials on this ergometer, so such trials are suitable for tracking changes in physiological performance and factors affecting it. Many researchers have used the 2000 m ergometer performance time as a criterion to identify other predictors of rowing performance. Standard errors of the estimate vary widely between studies even for the same predictor, but the lowest errors (~1-2%) have been observed for peak power output in an incremental test, some measures of lactate threshold and measures of 30-second all-out power. Some of these measures also have typical error between repeated tests suitably low for tracking changes. Combining measures via multiple linear regression needs further investigation. In summary, measurement of boat speed, especially with a good GPS device, has adequate precision for monitoring training performance, but adjustment for environmental effects needs to be investigated. Time trials on the Concept II ergometer provide accurate estimates of a rower's physiological ability to output power, and some submaximal and brief maximal ergometer performance measures can be used frequently to monitor changes in this ability. On-water performance measured via instrumented skiffs that determine individual power output may eventually surpass measures derived from the Concept II.

A study on the characteristics of silt loading on paved roads in the Seoul metropolitan area using a mobile monitoring system.

PubMed

Han, Sehyun; Jung, Yong-Won

2012-07-01

This study is considered the first attempt to apply a mobile monitoring system to estimating silt loading on paved roads in a megacity such as the Seoul metropolitan area. Using a mobile monitoring system developed in 2005, we estimated silt loadings on representative paved roads in the Seoul metropolitan area, including the city of Incheon, over a period of 3 yr. The temporal and spatial characteristics of silt loading were investigated for the carefully selected roads that may reflect the characteristics of the cities of Seoul and Incheon. In this study, changes in the average silt loading values were investigated in terms of land use, the temporal resolution of data acquisition (i.e., seasonal, daily, three-hour scale), the road width or number of lanes, and rainfall, which may affect the characteristics of the average silt loading significantly. It was found that the advantages of using the mobile monitoring system are its ability to obtain a large quantity of silt loading data in a short period of time and over a wide area and its ability to create a silt loading map showing the relative magnitude of silt loading in relation to a specific location, which makes it possible to easily locate hot spots.

A Framework for Measuring Low-Value Care.

PubMed

Miller, George; Rhyan, Corwin; Beaudin-Seiler, Beth; Hughes-Cromwick, Paul

2018-04-01

It has been estimated that more than 30% of health care spending in the United States is wasteful, and that low-value care, which drives up costs unnecessarily while increasing patient risk, is a significant component of wasteful spending. To address the need for an ability to measure the magnitude of low-value care nationwide, identify the clinical services that are the greatest contributors to waste, and track progress toward eliminating low-value use of these services. Such an ability could provide valuable input to the efforts of policymakers and health systems to improve efficiency. We reviewed existing methods that could contribute to measuring low-value care and developed an integrated framework that combines multiple methods to comprehensively estimate and track the magnitude and principal sources of clinical waste. We also identified a process and needed research for implementing the framework. A comprehensive methodology for measuring and tracking low-value care in the United States would provide an important contribution toward reducing waste. Implementation of the framework described in this article appears feasible, and the proposed research program will allow moving incrementally toward full implementation while providing a near-term capability for measuring low-value care that can be enhanced over time. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in health care database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness.

PubMed

Nelson, Jennifer Clark; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B; Jackson, Lisa A; Jackson, Michael L

2013-08-01

Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased owing to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. We applied two such methods, namely imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method's ability to reduce bias using the control time period before influenza circulation. Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not use the validation sample confounders. Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from health care database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which the data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in healthcare database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness

PubMed Central

Nelson, Jennifer C.; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B.; Jackson, Lisa A.; Jackson, Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased due to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. Study Design and Setting We applied two such methods, imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method’s ability to reduce bias using the control time period prior to influenza circulation. Results Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not utilize the validation sample confounders. Conclusion Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from healthcare database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. PMID:23849144

The effect of response-delay on estimating reachability.

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Ammar, Diala

2008-11-01

The experiment was conducted to compare visual imagery (VI) and motor imagery (MI) reaching tasks in a response-delay paradigm designed to explore the hypothesized dissociation between vision for perception and vision for action. Although the visual systems work cooperatively in motor control, theory suggests that they operate under different temporal constraints. From this perspective, we expected that delay would affect MI but not VI because MI operates in real time and VI is postulated to be memory-driven. Following measurement of actual reach, right-handers were presented seven (imagery) targets at midline in eight conditions: MI and VI with 0-, 1-, 2-, and 4-s delays. Results indicted that delay affected the ability to estimate reachability with MI but not with VI. These results are supportive of a general distinction between vision for perception and vision for action.

Estimation of residual stresses in railroad commuter car wheels following manufacture

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-01

A computer simulation of the manufacturing process of railroad car wheels is described to determine the residual stresses in the wheel following fabrication. Knowledge of, and the ability to predict, these stresses is useful in assessing the ability ...

Number Sense and Mathematics: Which, When and How?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Individual differences in number sense correlate with mathematical ability and performance, although the presence and strength of this relationship differs across studies. Inconsistencies in the literature may stem from heterogeneity of number sense and mathematical ability constructs. Sample characteristics may also play a role as changes in the relationship between number sense and mathematics may differ across development and cultural contexts. In this study, 4,984 16-year-old students were assessed on estimation ability, one aspect of number sense. Estimation was measured using 2 different tasks: number line and dot-comparison. Using cognitive and achievement data previously collected from these students at ages 7, 9, 10, 12, and 14, the study explored for which of the measures and when in development these links are observed, and how strong these links are and how much these links are moderated by other cognitive abilities. The 2 number sense measures correlated modestly with each other (r = .22), but moderately with mathematics at age 16. Both measures were also associated with earlier mathematics; but this association was uneven across development and was moderated by other cognitive abilities. PMID:28758784

Cherenkov radiation-based three-dimensional position-sensitive PET detector: A Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Ota, Ryosuke; Yamada, Ryoko; Moriya, Takahiro; Hasegawa, Tomoyuki

2018-05-01

Cherenkov radiation has recently received attention due to its prompt emission phenomenon, which has the potential to improve the timing performance of radiation detectors dedicated to positron emission tomography (PET). In this study, a Cherenkov-based three-dimensional (3D) position-sensitive radiation detector was proposed, which is composed of a monolithic lead fluoride (PbF 2 ) crystal and a photodetector array of which the signals can be readout independently. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to estimate the performance of the proposed detector. The position- and time resolution were evaluated under various practical conditions. The radiator size and various properties of the photodetector, e.g., readout pitch and single photon timing resolution (SPTR), were parameterized. The single photon time response of the photodetector was assumed to be a single Gaussian for the simplification. The photo detection efficiency of the photodetector was ideally 100% for all wavelengths. Compton scattering was included in simulations, but partly analyzed. To estimate the position at which a γ-ray interacted in the Cherenkov radiator, the center-of-gravity (COG) method was employed. In addition, to estimate the depth-of-interaction (DOI) principal component analysis (PCA), which is a multivariate analysis method and has been used to identify the patterns in data, was employed. The time-space distribution of Cherenkov photons was quantified to perform PCA. To evaluate coincidence time resolution (CTR), the time difference of two independent γ-ray events was calculated. The detection time was defined as the first photon time after the SPTR of the photodetector was taken into account. The position resolution on the photodetector plane could be estimated with high accuracy, by using a small number of Cherenkov photons. Moreover, PCA showed an ability to estimate the DOI. The position resolution heavily depends on the pitch of the photodetector array and the radiator thickness. If the readout pitch were ideally 0 and practically 3 mm, a full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of 0.348 and 1.92 mm was achievable with a 10-mm-thick PbF 2 crystal, respectively. Furthermore, first-order correlation could be observed between the primary principal component and the true DOI. To obtain a coincidence timing resolution better than 100-ps FWHM with a 20-mm-thick PbF 2 crystal, a photodetector with SPTR of better than σ = 30 ps was necessary. From these results, the improvement of SPTR allows us to achieve CTR better than 100-ps FWHM, even in the case where a 20-mm-thick radiator is used. Our proposed detector has the potential to estimate the 3D interaction position of γ-rays in the radiator, using only time and space information of Cherenkov photons. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Use of the Real Time xCelligence System for Purposes of Medical Microbiology.

PubMed

Junka, Adam Feliks; Janczura, Adriana; Smutnicka, Danuta; Mączyńska, Beata; Anna, Secewicz; Nowicka, Joanna; Bartoszewicz, Marzenna; Gościniak, Grażyna

2012-09-28

Roche's xCelligence impedance-measuring instrument is one of a few commercially available systems of such type. According to the best knowledge of authors, instrument was tested so far only for eukaryotic cell research. The aim of this work was to estimate xCELLigence suitability for the microbiological tests, including (i) measurement of morphological changes in eukaryotic cells as a result of bacterial toxin activity, (ii) measurement of bacterial biofilm formation and (iii) impact of antiseptics on the biofilm structure. To test the infuence of bacterial LT enterotoxin on eukaryotic cell lines, Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell line and reference strain Escherichia coli ATTC 35401 were used. To investigate Roche's instrument ability to measure biofilm formation and impact of antiseptics on its development, Staphylococcus aureus ATTC6538 reference strain was used. The data generated during the experiments indicate excellent ability of xCelligence instrument to detect cytopathic effect caused by bacterial LT endotoxin and to detect staphylococcal biofilm formation. However, interpretation of the results obtained during real-time measurement of antiseptic's bactericidal activity against staphylococcal biofilm, caused many difficulties. xCelligence instrument can be used for real-time monitoring of morphological changes in CHO cells treated with bacterial LT enterotoxin and for real-time measurement of staphylococcal biofilm formation in vitro. Further investigation is necessary to confirm suitability of system to analyze antiseptic's antimicrobial activity against biofilm in vitro.

Comparison of americium-241 and technetium-99m as transmission sources for attenuation correction of thallium-201 SPECT imaging of the heart.

PubMed

Ficaro, E P; Fessler, J A; Rogers, W L; Schwaiger, M

1994-04-01

This study compares the ability of 241Am and 99mTc to estimate 201Tl attenuation maps while minimizing the loss in the precision of the emission data. A triple-head SPECT system with either an 241Am or 99mTc line source opposite a fan-beam collimator was used to estimate attenuation maps of the thorax of an anthropomorphic phantom. Linear attenuation values at 75 keV for 201Tl were obtained by linear extrapolation of the measured values from 241Am and 99mTc. Lung and soft-tissue estimates from both isotopes showed excellent agreement to within 3% of the measured values for 201Tl. Linear extrapolation did not yield satisfactory estimates for bone from either 241Am (+11.7%) or 99mTc (-15.3%). Patient data were used to estimate the dependence of crosstalk on patient size. Contamination from 201Tl in the transmission window was 5-6 times greater for 241Am compared to 99mTc, while the contamination in the 201Tl data in the transmission-emission detector head (head 1) was 4-5 times greater for 99mTc compared to 241Am. No contamination was detected in the 201Tl emission data of heads 2 and 3 from 241Am, whereas the 99mTc produced a small crosstalk component giving a signal-to-crosstalk ratio near 20:1. Measurements with a fillable chest phantom estimated the mean error introduced into the data from the removal of the crosstalk. Based on the measured data, 241Am is a suitable transmission source for simultaneous transmission-emission tomography for 201Tl cardiac studies.

Economic evaluation in short bowel syndrome (SBS): an algorithm to estimate utility scores for a patient-reported SBS-specific quality of life scale (SBS-QoL™).

PubMed

Lloyd, Andrew; Kerr, Cicely; Breheny, Katie; Brazier, John; Ortiz, Aurora; Borg, Emma

2014-03-01

Condition-specific preference-based measures can offer utility data where they would not otherwise be available or where generic measures may lack sensitivity, although they lack comparability across conditions. This study aimed to develop an algorithm for estimating utilities from the short bowel syndrome health-related quality of life scale (SBS-QoL™). SBS-QoL™ items were selected based on factor and item performance analysis of a European SBS-QoL™ dataset and consultation with 3 SBS clinical experts. Six-dimension health states were developed using 8 SBS-QoL™ items (2 dimensions combined 2 SBS-QoL™ items). SBS health states were valued by a UK general population sample (N = 250) using the lead-time time trade-off method. Preference weights or 'utility decrements' for each severity level of each dimension were estimated by regression models and used to develop the scoring algorithm. Mean utilities for the SBS health states ranged from -0.46 (worst health state, very much affected on all dimensions) to 0.92 (best health state, not at all affected on all dimensions). The random effects model with maximum likelihood estimation regression had the best predictive ability and lowest root mean squared error and mean absolute error, and was used to develop the scoring algorithm. The preference-weighted scoring algorithm for the SBS-QoL™ developed is able to estimate a wide range of utility values from patient-level SBS-QoL™ data. This allows estimation of SBS HRQL impact for the purpose of economic evaluation of SBS treatment benefits.

The value and limitations of global air-sampling networks for improving our understanding trace gas behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montzka, S. A.

2016-12-01

Measurements from global surface-based air sampling networks provide a fundamental understanding of how and why concentrations of long-lived trace gases are changing over time. Results from these networks are used to quantify trace-gas concentrations and their time-dependent changes on global and smaller scales, and thus provide a means to quantify emission rates, loss frequencies, and mixing processes. Substantial advances in measurement and sampling technologies and the ability of these programs to create and maintain reliable gas standards mean that spatial concentration gradients and time-dependent changes are often very reliably measured. The presence of multiple independent networks allows an assessment of this reliability. Furthermore, recent global `snap-shot' surveys (e.g., HIPPO and ATom) and ongoing atmospheric profiling programs help us assess the ability of surface-based data to describe concentration distributions throughout most of the atmosphere ( 80% of its mass). In this overview talk, I'll explore the usefulness and limitations of existing long-term, ongoing sampling network programs and their advantages and disadvantages for characterizing concentrations on global and regional scales, and how recent advances (and short-term sampling programs) help us assess the accuracy of the surface networks to provide estimates of source and sink magnitudes, and inter-annual variability in both.

Methylene Blue Assay for Estimation of Regenerative Re-Epithelialization In Vivo.

PubMed

Milyavsky, Maresha; Dickie, Renee

2017-02-01

The rapidity with which epithelial cells cover a wound surface helps determine whether scarring or scar-less healing results. As methylene blue is a vital dye that is absorbed by damaged tissue but not undamaged epidermis, it can be used to assess wound closure. We sought to develop a quantitative methylene blue exclusion assay to estimate the timeframe for re-epithelialization in regenerating appendages in zebrafish and axolotls, two classic model systems of regeneration. Following application of methylene blue to the amputation plane and extensive washing, the regenerating tail was imaged in vivo until staining was no longer visible. The percent area of the amputation plane positive for methylene blue, representing the area of the amputation plane not yet re-epithelialized, was measured for each time point. The loss of methylene blue occurred rapidly, within ~2.5 h in larval and juvenile axolotls and <1 h in adult zebrafish, consistent with high rates of re-epithelialization in these models of regeneration. The assay allows simple, rapid estimation of the time course for regenerative re-epithelialization without affecting subsequent regenerative ability. This technique will permit comparison of re-epithelialization across different strains and stages, as well as under the influence of various pharmacological inhibitors that affect regeneration.

Water quality assessment by means of HFNI valvometry and high-frequency data modeling.

PubMed

Sow, Mohamedou; Durrieu, Gilles; Briollais, Laurent; Ciret, Pierre; Massabuau, Jean-Charles

2011-11-01

The high-frequency measurements of valve activity in bivalves (e.g., valvometry) over a long period of time and in various environmental conditions allow a very accurate study of their behaviors as well as a global analysis of possible perturbations due to the environment. Valvometry uses the bivalve's ability to close its shell when exposed to a contaminant or other abnormal environmental conditions as an alarm to indicate possible perturbations in the environment. The modeling of such high-frequency serial valvometry data is statistically challenging, and here, a nonparametric approach based on kernel estimation is proposed. This method has the advantage of summarizing complex data into a simple density profile obtained from each animal at every 24-h period to ultimately make inference about time effect and external conditions on this profile. The statistical properties of the estimator are presented. Through an application to a sample of 16 oysters living in the Bay of Arcachon (France), we demonstrate that this method can be used to first estimate the normal biological rhythms of permanently immersed oysters and second to detect perturbations of these rhythms due to changes in their environment. We anticipate that this approach could have an important contribution to the survey of aquatic systems.

Association between imagined and actual functional reach (FR): a comparison of young and older adults.

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Cordova, Alberto

2013-01-01

Recent studies indicate that the ability to mentally represent action using motor imagery declines with advanced age (>64 years). As the ability to represent action declines, the elderly may experience increasing difficulty with movement planning and execution. Here, we determined the association between estimation of reach via use of motor imagery and actual FR. Young adults (M=22 years) and older adults (M=66 years) estimated reach while standing with targets randomly presented in peripersonal (within actual reach) and extrapersonal (beyond reach) space. Imagined responses were compared to the individual's scaled maximum reach. FR, also while standing, was assessed using the standardized Functional Reach Test (FRT). Results for total score estimation accuracy showed that there was no difference for age; however, results for mean bias and distribution of error revealed that the older group underestimated while the younger group overestimated. In reference to FR, younger adults outperformed older adults (30 versus 14in.) and most prominent, only the younger group showed a significant relationship between estimation and FR. In addition to gaining insight to the effects of advanced age on the ability to mentally represent action and its association with movement execution, these results although preliminary, may have clinical implications based on the question of whether motor imagery training could improve movement estimations and how that might affect actual reach. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploiting Satellite Archives to Estimate Global Glacier Volume Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNabb, R. W.; Nuth, C.; Kääb, A.; Girod, L.

2017-12-01

In the past decade, the availability of, and ability to process, remote sensing data over glaciers has expanded tremendously. Newly opened satellite image archives, combined with new processing techniques as well as increased computing power and storage capacity, have given the glaciological community the ability to observe and investigate glaciological processes and changes on a truly global scale. In particular, the opening of the ASTER archives provides further opportunities to both estimate and monitor glacier elevation and volume changes globally, including potentially on sub-annual timescales. With this explosion of data availability, however, comes the challenge of seeing the forest instead of the trees. The high volume of data available means that automated detection and proper handling of errors and biases in the data becomes critical, in order to properly study the processes that we wish to see. This includes holes and blunders in digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from optical data or penetration of radar signals leading to biases in DEMs derived from radar data, among other sources. Here, we highlight new advances in the ability to sift through high-volume datasets, and apply these techniques to estimate recent glacier volume changes in the Caucasus Mountains, Scandinavia, Africa, and South America. By properly estimating and correcting for these biases, we additionally provide a detailed accounting of the uncertainties in these estimates of volume changes, leading to more reliable results that have applicability beyond the glaciological community.

The nest-concealment hypothesis: New insights from a comparative analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borgmann, Kathi L.; Conway, Courtney J.

2015-01-01

Selection of a breeding site is critical for many animals, especially for birds whose offspring are stationary during development. Thus, birds are often assumed to prefer concealed nest sites. However, 74% of studies (n = 106) that have evaluated this relationship for open-cup nesting songbirds in North America failed to support the nest-concealment hypothesis. We conducted a comparative analysis to identify factors that contribute to variation in the ability of researchers to find support for the nest-concealment hypothesis. We found that some of the discrepancy among studies can be explained by interspecific differences in morphological and extrinsic factors that affect nest predation. Moreover, methods that investigators used to estimate concealment affected whether studies found support for the nest-concealment hypothesis; 33% of the studies that used quantitative estimates found support for the nest-concealment hypothesis whereas only 10% of the studies that used qualitative estimates found support. The timing of measurements also explained some of the ambiguity; studies that provided little information regarding the timing of their foliage density estimates were less likely to support the nest-concealment hypothesis. Species with more conspicuous male plumage were less likely to support the nest-concealment hypothesis when we analyzed studies that used visual estimates. Whereas species with more conspicuous female plumage were more likely to support the nest-concealment hypothesis when we analyzed studies that used quantitative measures. Our results demonstrate that support for the nest-concealment hypothesis has been equivocal, but that some of the ambiguity can be explained by morphological traits and methods used to measure concealment.

Particle swarm optimization and its application in MEG source localization using single time sliced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Juan; Liu, Chenglian; Guo, Yongning

2014-10-01

The estimation of neural active sources from the magnetoencephalography (MEG) data is a very critical issue for both clinical neurology and brain functions research. A widely accepted source-modeling technique for MEG involves calculating a set of equivalent current dipoles (ECDs). Depth in the brain is one of difficulties in MEG source localization. Particle swarm optimization(PSO) is widely used to solve various optimization problems. In this paper we discuss its ability and robustness to find the global optimum in different depths of the brain when using single equivalent current dipole (sECD) model and single time sliced data. The results show that PSO is an effective global optimization to MEG source localization when given one dipole in different depths.