Association mining of dependency between time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafez, Alaaeldin

2001-03-01

Time series analysis is considered as a crucial component of strategic control over a broad variety of disciplines in business, science and engineering. Time series data is a sequence of observations collected over intervals of time. Each time series describes a phenomenon as a function of time. Analysis on time series data includes discovering trends (or patterns) in a time series sequence. In the last few years, data mining has emerged and been recognized as a new technology for data analysis. Data Mining is the process of discovering potentially valuable patterns, associations, trends, sequences and dependencies in data. Data mining techniques can discover information that many traditional business analysis and statistical techniques fail to deliver. In this paper, we adapt and innovate data mining techniques to analyze time series data. By using data mining techniques, maximal frequent patterns are discovered and used in predicting future sequences or trends, where trends describe the behavior of a sequence. In order to include different types of time series (e.g. irregular and non- systematic), we consider past frequent patterns of the same time sequences (local patterns) and of other dependent time sequences (global patterns). We use the word 'dependent' instead of the word 'similar' for emphasis on real life time series where two time series sequences could be completely different (in values, shapes, etc.), but they still react to the same conditions in a dependent way. In this paper, we propose the Dependence Mining Technique that could be used in predicting time series sequences. The proposed technique consists of three phases: (a) for all time series sequences, generate their trend sequences, (b) discover maximal frequent trend patterns, generate pattern vectors (to keep information of frequent trend patterns), use trend pattern vectors to predict future time series sequences.

Recent age- and gender-specific trends in mortality during stroke hospitalization in the United States.

PubMed

Ovbiagele, Bruce; Markovic, Daniela; Towfighi, Amytis

2011-10-01

Advancements in diagnosis and treatment have resulted in better clinical outcomes after stroke; however, the influence of age and gender on recent trends in death during stroke hospitalization has not been specifically investigated. We assessed the impact of age and gender on nationwide patterns of in-hospital mortality after stroke. Data were obtained from all US states that contributed to the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. All patients admitted to hospitals between 1997 and 1998 (n=1 351 293) and 2005 and 2006 (n=1 202 449), with a discharge diagnosis of stroke (identified by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision procedure codes), were included. Time trends for in-hospital mortality after stroke were evaluated by gender and age group based on 10-year age increments (<55, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, >84) using multivariable logistic regression. Between 1997 and 2006, in-hospital mortality rates decreased across time in all sub-groups (all P<0·01), except in men >84 years. In unadjusted analysis, men aged >84 years in 1997-1998 had poorer mortality outcomes than similarly aged women (odds ratio 0·93, 95% confidence interval=0·88-0·98). This disparity worsened by 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·88, 95% confidence interval=0·84-0·93). After adjusting for confounders, compared with similarly aged women, the mortality outcomes among men aged >84 years were poorer in 1997-1998 (odds ratio 0·97, 95% confidence interval=0·92-1·02) and were poorer in 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·92, 95% confidence interval=0·87-0·96), P=0·04, for gender × time trend. Over the last decade, in-hospital mortality rates after stroke in the United States have declined for every age/gender group, except men aged >84 years. Given the rapidly ageing US population, avenues for boosting in-hospital survival among very elderly men with stroke need to be explored. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2011 World Stroke Organization.

Detection of sedimentary structural elements using formation micro imager technique, a case study from South Mansoura-1 well, Nile Delta, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abd El-Wahed, Ahmed G.; Anan, Tarek I.

2016-12-01

A detailed structure and sedimentology interpretation was performed for the South Mansoura-1 well. The Formation Micro Imager (FMI) is recorded and interpreted over the interval 9100-8009 ft. This interval belongs to Sidi Salem and Qawasim Formations. Based on azimuth trend of manually picked dips (bed boundaries), the interval can be divided into 4 structural dip zones (Zone 1 (9100-8800 ft), variable azimuth direction with the major trends mainly to SW&NE; Zone 2 (8800-8570 ft), bedding dip azimuth is mainly to the NW; Zone 3 (8570-8250 ft), bedding dip azimuth is mainly to the NE; and Zone 4 (8250-8009 ft), bedding dip azimuth is mainly to the NW). Lamination identified over the interval shows a dominant dip azimuth trend toward North North-West direction. The interbedded shale units are highly laminated and show little evidence of bioturbation. Sand exhibits abundant cross bedding showing a dominant dip azimuth trends toward NNE and NE and more locally to the E. Sixteen truncations identified over the interval show variable azimuth trend with the major trend mainly to the North North-West.

The Smoking Habits of Three U. S. Newsmagazines: Surgeon General Be Damned?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsien, Ay-Ling; Ostman, Ronald E.

A trend analysis was conducted to determine the characteristics of news articles, editorials, and advertisements about tobacco that appeared in the magazines "Newsweek,""Time," and "U. S. News and World Report." Nine time periods in three intervals were studied: 1959-1961-1963, 1965-1967-1969, and 1973-1975-1977. An…

40 CFR 53.32 - Test procedures for methods for SO2, CO, O3, and NO2.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... shall have a chart width of at least 25 centimeters, a response time of 1 second or less, a deadband of... appropriate time intervals such that trend plots similar to a strip chart recording may be constructed with a... facilitate visual evaluation of data submitted. (3) Allow adequate warmup or stabilization time as indicated...

Systematic vertical and lateral changes in quality and time resolution of the macrofossil record: insights from Holocene transgressive deposits, Po coastal plain, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzarone, Michele; Scarponi, Daniele; Kusnerik, Kristopher; Amorosi, Alessandro; Bohacs, Kevin M.; Drexler, Tina M.; Kowalewski, Michał

2017-04-01

In siliciclastic marine settings, skeletal concentrations are a characteristic feature of transgressive intervals that provide insights into paleobiology and sequence stratigraphy. To investigate taphonomic signatures of transgressive intervals, we analyzed three cores from a Holocene depositional profile of the Po coastal plain, in northern Italy. Coupled multivariate taphonomic and bathymetric trends delineate spatial and temporal gradients in sediment starvation/bypassing, suggesting that quality and resolution of the fossil record vary predictably along the studied depositional profile. Moreover, joint consideration of taphonomic, bathymetric, and fossil density trends across the study area reveals distinctive signatures that are useful in characterizing facies associations and recognizing surfaces and intervals of sequence stratigraphic significance. Within the southern Po plain succession, taphonomic degradation of macroskeletal remains increases from proximal—nearshore to distal—offshore locations. This trend is discernible for both biologically-driven (bioerosion) and chemically/physically-driven (e.g., dissolution, abrasion) shell alterations. Compared to the up-dip (most proximal) core, the down-dip core is distinguished by shell-rich lithosomes affected by ecological condensation (co-occurrence of environmentally non-overlapping taxa) and by higher taphonomic alteration. The onshore-offshore taphonomic trend likely reflects variation in sediment-supply along the depositional profile of the Holocene Northern Adriatic shelf, with surface/near-surface residence-time of macroskeletal remains increasing down dip due to lower accumulation rates. These results indicate that, during transgressive phases, changes in sea-level (base level) are likely to produce down-dip taphonomic gradients across shelves, where the quality and resolution of the fossil record both deteriorate distally. The amino acid radiometrically calibrated dates on bivalves and the chronostratigraphic framework for this profile suggest that the high levels of taphonomic degradation observed distally developed over millennial time scales ( 8ky). The patterns documented here may be characteristic of siliciclastic-dominated depositional systems that experience high-frequency, base-level fluctuations.

Effective data validation of high-frequency data: time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods.

PubMed

Horn, W; Miksch, S; Egghart, G; Popow, C; Paky, F

1997-09-01

Real-time systems for monitoring and therapy planning, which receive their data from on-line monitoring equipment and computer-based patient records, require reliable data. Data validation has to utilize and combine a set of fast methods to detect, eliminate, and repair faulty data, which may lead to life-threatening conclusions. The strength of data validation results from the combination of numerical and knowledge-based methods applied to both continuously-assessed high-frequency data and discontinuously-assessed data. Dealing with high-frequency data, examining single measurements is not sufficient. It is essential to take into account the behavior of parameters over time. We present time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods for validation and repair. These are complemented by time-independent methods for determining an overall reliability of measurements. The data validation benefits from the temporal data-abstraction process, which provides automatically derived qualitative values and patterns. The temporal abstraction is oriented on a context-sensitive and expectation-guided principle. Additional knowledge derived from domain experts forms an essential part for all of these methods. The methods are applied in the field of artificial ventilation of newborn infants. Examples from the real-time monitoring and therapy-planning system VIE-VENT illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the methods.

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Estimations of evapotranspiration and water balance with uncertainty over the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, Wenping; Liu, Shuguang; Liang, Shunlin; Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Heping; Young, Claudia

2012-01-01

In this study, the revised Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith model (RS-PM) was used to scale up evapotranspiration (ET) over the entire Yukon River Basin (YRB) from three eddy covariance (EC) towers covering major vegetation types. We determined model parameters and uncertainty using a Bayesian-based method in the three EC sites. The 95 % confidence interval for the aggregate ecosystem ET ranged from 233 to 396 mm yr−1 with an average of 319 mm yr−1. The mean difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (W) was 171 mm yr−1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 94–257 mm yr−1. The YRB region showed a slight increasing trend in annual precipitation for the 1982–2009 time period, while ET showed a significant increasing trend of 6.6 mm decade−1. As a whole, annual W showed a drying trend over YRB region.

Finding Intervals of Abrupt Change in Earth Science Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, X.; Shekhar, S.; Liess, S.

2011-12-01

In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset reasonably fast. In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar change pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset fast. In this work, we analyze earth science data using a novel, automated data mining approach to identify spatial/temporal intervals of persistent, abrupt change. We first propose a statistical model to quantitatively evaluate the change abruptness and persistence in an interval. Then we design an algorithm to exhaustively examine all the intervals using this model. Intervals passing a threshold test will be kept as final results. We evaluate the proposed method with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) precipitation data, whereby we focus on the Sahel rainfall index. Results show that this method can find periods of persistent and abrupt value changes with different temporal scales. We also further optimize the algorithm using a smart strategy, which always examines longer intervals before its subsets. By doing this, we reduce the computational cost to only one third of that of the original algorithm for the above test case. More significantly, the optimized algorithm is also proven to scale up well with data volume and number of changes. Particularly, it achieves better performance when dealing with longer change intervals.

Lawn mower injuries in children: a 30-year experience.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anh; Raymond, Simon; Morgan, Vanessa; Peters, Julian; Macgill, Kirstie; Johnstone, Bruce

2008-09-01

Lawn mowers cause severe injuries that are particularly devastating to children. This study analyses the patterns and trends in lawn mower injuries involving children referred to Victoria's principal children's hospital. A retrospective review of the patient medical records at the Royal Children's Hospital (Melbourne) Victoria, Australia was carried out. The series included all patients admitted for lawn mower injury during the 30-year period spanning 1975-2004. Lawn mower injuries treated at Royal Children's Hospital were severe and included partially amputated limbs. Overall, admissions for lawn mower injury generally decreased over time from n = 26 in the 1975-1979 interval to n = 14 in the 2000-2004 interval. However, the frequency of admission for injuries caused by ride-on mowers contradicted the overall trend and generally increased over time from n = 5 in the 1975-1979 interval to n = 11 in the 2000-2004 interval. This is of particular concern. Ride-on lawn mowers caused significantly more severe injuries requiring longer periods of admission and more operations during admission in comparison to standard mowers. Rural location at the time of injury was a risk factor associated with requiring longer periods of admission and more operations during admission. Children injured while operating mowers were generally older than children injured as bystanders. Lawn mower injuries are a significant cause of morbidity. These injuries are particularly devastating to children. The tragedy is keenly felt in the realization that these devastating injuries to children could all be prevented. Strategic preventative measures should be developed through partnership between the medical profession, the media, industry specialists and the wider community.

An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2015-02-01

The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Millisecond Pulsar Observation at CRL

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-11-01

32nd Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Meeting MILLISECOND PULSAR OBSERVATION AT CRL Y. Hanado, Y . Shibuya, M. Hosokawa, M. Sekido...status of millisecond pulsar timing observation at CRL.. Weekly observation of PSR1937+21 using the 34-m antenna at Kashima Space Research Center has...been on going since November 1997. Recently we eliminated systematic trends that were apparent in the data, and estimated the pulsar parameters of

Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Nussaïbah B.; Aydin, Olgu

2018-04-01

This study researched the precipitation variability across 53 meteorological stations in Mauritius and different subregions of the island, over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). Time series was investigated for each 5-year interval and also for the whole study period. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho statistical tests were used to detect trends in annual precipitation. A mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends was highlighted for the 5-year interval analysis. The statistical tests nevertheless agreed on the overall trend for Mauritius and the subregions. Most regions showed a decrease in precipitation during the period 1996-2000. This is attributed to the 1998-2000 drought period which was brought about by a moderate La Niña event. In general, an increase in precipitation levels was observed across the country during the study period. This increase is the result of an increase in extreme precipitation events in the region. On the other hand, two subregions, both located in the highlands, experienced a decline in precipitation levels. Since most of the reservoirs in Mauritius are located in these two subregions, this implies serious consequences for water availability in the country if existing storage capacities are kept.

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

An actual load forecasting methodology by interval grey modeling based on the fractional calculus.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Xue, Dingyü

2017-07-17

The operation processes for thermal power plant are measured by the real-time data, and a large number of historical interval data can be obtained from the dataset. Within defined periods of time, the interval information could provide important information for decision making and equipment maintenance. Actual load is one of the most important parameters, and the trends hidden in the historical data will show the overall operation status of the equipments. However, based on the interval grey parameter numbers, the modeling and prediction process is more complicated than the one with real numbers. In order not lose any information, the geometric coordinate features are used by the coordinates of area and middle point lines in this paper, which are proved with the same information as the original interval data. The grey prediction model for interval grey number by the fractional-order accumulation calculus is proposed. Compared with integer-order model, the proposed method could have more freedom with better performance for modeling and prediction, which can be widely used in the modeling process and prediction for the small amount interval historical industry sequence samples. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fertility time trends in dairy herds in northern Portugal.

PubMed

Rocha, A; Martins, A; Carvalheira, J

2010-10-01

The economics of dairy production are in great part dictated by the reproductive efficiency of the herds. Many studies have reported a widespread decrease in fertility of dairy cows. In a previous work (Rocha et al. 2001), we found a very poor oestrus detection rate (38%), and consequently a delayed calving to 1st AI and calving to conception intervals. However, a good conception rate at 1st AI was noted (51%) resulting in a low number of inseminations per pregnancy (IAP) (1.4). Here, results from a subsequent fertility time trend assessment study carried out in the same region for cows born from 1992 to 2002 are reported. Statistical linear models were used to analyse the data. Estimate linear contrasts of least square means were computed from each model. The number of observations per studied index varied from 12,130 (culling rate) to 57,589 (non-return rate). Mean age at first calving was 28.9 ± 0.14 months, without (p > 0.05) variation over time. There was a small, but significant (p < 0.05), deterioration of all other parameters. Non-return rates at 90 days and calving rate at 1st AI decreased 0.3% per trimester, with a consequent increase of 0.04 IA/parturition. Oestrus detection rate decreased 0.13% per year, and calving at 1st AI and calving-conception intervals increased 0.17 and 0.07 days/year respectively, while intercalving interval increased 1.7 days per year. From 12,130 cows calving, only 1,816 had a 4th lactation (85% culling/losses). The data was not meant to draw conclusions on the causes for the decreased fertility over time, but an increase of milk production from 6537 kg to 8590 kg (305 days) from 1996 to 2002 is probably one factor to take into consideration. Specific measures to revert or slow down this trend of decreasing fertility are warranted. Available strategies are discussed. © 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Effects of sampling interval on spatial patterns and statistics of watershed nitrogen concentration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, S.-S.D.; Usery, E.L.; Finn, M.P.; Bosch, D.D.

2009-01-01

This study investigates how spatial patterns and statistics of a 30 m resolution, model-simulated, watershed nitrogen concentration surface change with sampling intervals from 30 m to 600 m for every 30 m increase for the Little River Watershed (Georgia, USA). The results indicate that the mean, standard deviation, and variogram sills do not have consistent trends with increasing sampling intervals, whereas the variogram ranges remain constant. A sampling interval smaller than or equal to 90 m is necessary to build a representative variogram. The interpolation accuracy, clustering level, and total hot spot areas show decreasing trends approximating a logarithmic function. The trends correspond to the nitrogen variogram and start to level at a sampling interval of 360 m, which is therefore regarded as a critical spatial scale of the Little River Watershed. Copyright ?? 2009 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All right reserved.

Proceedings of the 12th Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Applications and Planning Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardrip, S. C. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The meeting gave PTTI managers, systems engineers, and program planners a transparent view of the state-of-the-art, an opportunity to express needs, a view of important future trends, and a review of relevant past accomplishments. The PTTI users were provided with new and useful applications, procedures, and techniques. Emphasis is placed on military applications and avionics.

Application of an Entropic Approach to Assessing Systems Integration

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

two econometrical measures of information efficiency – Shannon entropy and Hurst exponent . Shannon entropy (which is explained in Chapter III) can be...applied to evaluate long-term correlation of time series, while Hurst exponent can be applied to classify the time series in accordance to existence...of trend. Hurst exponent is the statistical measure of time series long-range dependence, and its value falls in the interval [0, 1] – a value in

Intertrial interval duration and learning in autistic children.

PubMed Central

Koegel, R L; Dunlap, G; Dyer, K

1980-01-01

This study investigated the influence of intertrial interval duration on the performance of autistic children during teaching situations. The children were taught under the same conditions existing in their regular programs, except that the length of time between trials was systematically manipulated. With both multiple baseline and repeated reversal designs, two lengths of intertrial interval were employed; short intervals with the SD for any given trial presented approximately one second following the reinforcer for the previous trial versus long intervals with the SD presented four or more seconds following the reinforcer for the previous trial. The results showed that: (1) the short intertrial intervals always produced higher levels of correct responding than the long intervals; and (2) there were improving trends in performance and rapid acquisition with the short intertrial intervals, in contrast to minimal or no change with the long intervals. The results are discussed in terms of utilizing information about child and task characteristics in terms of selecting optimal intervals. The data suggest that manipulations made between trials have a large influence on autistic children's learning. PMID:7364701

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

PubMed

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is breast compression associated with breast cancer detection and other early performance measures in a population-based breast cancer screening program?

PubMed

Moshina, Nataliia; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Hofvind, Solveig

2017-06-01

We aimed to investigate early performance measures in a population-based breast cancer screening program stratified by compression force and pressure at the time of mammographic screening examination. Early performance measures included recall rate, rates of screen-detected and interval breast cancers, positive predictive value of recall (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, and histopathologic characteristics of screen-detected and interval breast cancers. Information on 261,641 mammographic examinations from 93,444 subsequently screened women was used for analyses. The study period was 2007-2015. Compression force and pressure were categorized using tertiles as low, medium, or high. χ 2 test, t tests, and test for trend were used to examine differences between early performance measures across categories of compression force and pressure. We applied generalized estimating equations to identify the odds ratios (OR) of screen-detected or interval breast cancer associated with compression force and pressure, adjusting for fibroglandular and/or breast volume and age. The recall rate decreased, while PPV and specificity increased with increasing compression force (p for trend <0.05 for all). The recall rate increased, while rate of screen-detected cancer, PPV, sensitivity, and specificity decreased with increasing compression pressure (p for trend <0.05 for all). High compression pressure was associated with higher odds of interval breast cancer compared with low compression pressure (1.89; 95% CI 1.43-2.48). High compression force and low compression pressure were associated with more favorable early performance measures in the screening program.

Retrospective analysis of mercury content in feathers of birds collected from the state of Michigan (1895-2007).

PubMed

Head, Jessica A; DeBofsky, Abigail; Hinshaw, Janet; Basu, Niladri

2011-10-01

Museum specimens were used to analyze temporal trends in feather mercury (Hg) concentrations in birds collected from the state of Michigan between the years 1895 and 2007. Hg was measured in flank and secondary feathers from three species of birds that breed in the Great Lakes region; common terns (n = 32), great blue herons (n = 35), and herring gulls (n = 35). More than 90% of the Hg in feathers should be organic, but some of the heron and gull feathers collected prior to 1936 showed evidence of contamination with inorganic Hg, likely from museum preservatives. The data presented here therefore consist of organic Hg in pre-1936 samples and total Hg in post-1936 samples. Insufficient tissue was available from terns to assess organic Hg content. Mean Hg concentrations ranged from 2.9 ± 2.5 μg/g Hg in tern flank feathers to 12.4 ± 10.6 μg/g Hg in gull flank feathers. No linear trend of Hg contamination over time was detected in herons and gulls. Though a significant decrease was noted for terns, these data are presented with caution given the strong likelihood that earlier samples were preserved with inorganic mercury. When data were separated into 30-year intervals, Hg content in heron and gull feathers collected from birds sampled between 1920 and 1949 were consistently highest but not to a level of statistical significance. For example, Hg concentrations in gull secondary feathers collected in the second time interval (1920-1949) were 11.5 ± 7.8. This value was 67% higher than the first time interval (1890-1919), 44% higher than the third interval (1950-1979), and 187% higher than the fourth interval (1980-2009). Studies on Great Lakes sediments also showed greatest Hg accumulations in the mid-twentieth century. Through the use of museum specimens, these results present a unique snapshot of Hg concentrations in Great Lakes biota in the early part of the twentieth century.

Iron Metabolism Genes, Low-Level Lead Exposure, and QT Interval

PubMed Central

Park, Sung Kyun; Hu, Howard; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Cheng, Yawen; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Weisskopf, Marc G.

2009-01-01

Background Cumulative exposure to lead has been shown to be associated with depression of electrocardiographic conduction, such as QT interval (time from start of the Q wave to end of the T wave). Because iron can enhance the oxidative effects of lead, we examined whether polymorphisms in iron metabolism genes [hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TF) C2, and heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX-1)] increase susceptibility to the effects of lead on QT interval in 613 community-dwelling older men. Methods We used standard 12-lead electrocardiograms, K-shell X-ray fluorescence, and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry to measure QT interval, bone lead, and blood lead levels, respectively. Results A one-interquartile-range increase in tibia lead level (13 μg/g) was associated with a 11.35-msec [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.05–18.65 msec] and a 6.81-msec (95% CI, 1.67–11.95 msec) increase in the heart-rate–corrected QT interval among persons carrying long HMOX-1 alleles and at least one copy of an HFE variant, respectively, but had no effect in persons with short and middle HMOX-1 alleles and the wild-type HFE genotype. The lengthening of the heart-rate–corrected QT interval with higher tibia lead and blood lead became more pronounced as the total number (0 vs. 1 vs. ≥2) of gene variants increased (tibia, p-trend = 0.01; blood, p-trend = 0.04). This synergy seems to be driven by a joint effect between HFE variant and HMOX-1 L alleles. Conclusion We found evidence that gene variants related to iron metabolism increase the impacts of low-level lead exposure on the prolonged QT interval. This is the first such report, so these results should be interpreted cautiously and need to be independently verified. PMID:19165391

Nonlinear analysis of gait kinematics to track changes in oxygen consumption in prolonged load carriage walking: a pilot study.

PubMed

Schiffman, Jeffrey M; Chelidze, David; Adams, Albert; Segala, David B; Hasselquist, Leif

2009-09-18

Linking human mechanical work to physiological work for the purpose of developing a model of physical fatigue is a complex problem that cannot be solved easily by conventional biomechanical analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine if two nonlinear analysis methods can address the fundamental issue of utilizing kinematic data to track oxygen consumption from a prolonged walking trial: we evaluated the effectiveness of dynamical systems and fractal analysis in this study. Further, we selected, oxygen consumption as a measure to represent the underlying physiological measure of fatigue. Three male US Army Soldier volunteers (means: 23.3 yr; 1.80 m; 77.3 kg) walked for 120 min at 1.34 m/s with a 40-kg load on a level treadmill. Gait kinematic data and oxygen consumption (VO(2)) data were collected over the 120-min period. For the fractal analysis, utilizing stride interval data, we calculated fractal dimension. For the dynamical systems analysis, kinematic angle time series were used to estimate phase space warping based features at uniform time intervals: smooth orthogonal decomposition (SOD) was used to extract slowly time-varying trends from these features. Estimated fractal dimensions showed no apparent trend or correlation with independently measured VO(2). While inter-individual difference did exist in the VO(2) data, dominant SOD time trends tracked and correlated with the VO(2) for all volunteers. Thus, dynamical systems analysis using gait kinematics may be suitable to develop a model to predict physiologic fatigue based on biomechanical work.

Spring Snow Melt Timing and Changes over Arctic Lands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. L.; Robinson, D. A.; Hall, D. K.; Estilow, T. W.

2006-01-01

Spring snow cover over Arctic lands has, on average, melted approximately 4-7 days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous 20 years. The earlier disappearance of snow has been identified in non-mountainous regions at the 60 deg and 70 deg N parallels over Eurasia and North America using visible satellite observations of continental snow cover extent (SCE) mapped by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The change was greater in the farthest north continental locations. Northern hemisphere SCE declined by almost 10% (May) to 20% (June) between the two intervals. At latitude 70 deg N, eight segments of longitude (each 10 deg in width) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two longitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, (one positive and one negative). SCE changes coincide with increasing spring warmth and the earlier diminution of sea ice in the last several decades. However, while sea ice has continued to decrease during this recent interval, snowmelt dates in the Arctic changed in a step-like fashion during the mid to late 1980s and have remained much the same since that time.

Trends in risk factor prevalence and management before first stroke: data from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

PubMed

Marshall, Iain J; Wang, Yanzhong; McKevitt, Christopher; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A

2013-07-01

Vascular risk factors are suboptimally managed internationally. This study investigated time trends in risk factors diagnosed before stroke and their treatment, and factors associated with appropriate medication use. A total of 4416 patients with a first stroke were registered in the population-based South London Stroke Register from 1995 to 2011. Previously diagnosed risk factors and usual medications were collected from patients' primary care and hospital records. Trends and associations were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Seventy-two percent of patients were diagnosed previously with 1 or more risk factors; 30% had diagnosed risk factors that were untreated. Hypercholesterolemia increased significantly during the study period; myocardial infarction and transient ischemic attack prevalences decreased. Antiplatelet prescription increased in atrial fibrillation (AF), myocardial infarction, and transient ischemic attack (AF, 37%-51%, P<0.001; myocardial infarction, 48%-69%, P<0.001; transient ischemic attack, 49%-61%, P=0.015). Anticoagulant prescription for AF showed a nonsignificant increase (12%-23%; P=0.059). Fewer older patients with AF were prescribed anticoagulants (age, >85 versus <65 years; adjusted relative risk, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.41). Black ethnicity (adjusted relative risk, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.23) and female sex (adjusted relative risk, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.15) were associated with increased antihypertensive drug prescription; other medications did not vary by ethnicity or sex. Antiplatelet and cholesterol-lowering treatment prescribing have improved significantly over time; however, only a minority with AF received anticoagulants, and this did not improve significantly. Overall, 30% of strokes occurred in patients with previously diagnosed but untreated risk factors.

Metastasis-free interval in breast cancer patients: Thirty-year trends and time dependency of prognostic factors. A retrospective analysis based on a single institution experience.

PubMed

Houzé de l'Aulnoit, A; Rogoz, B; Pinçon, C; Houzé de l'Aulnoit, D

2018-02-01

Breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in French women in spite of continuously improving management. The objectives of this study were to analyse trends in the metastasis-free interval over the past 30 years and to identify the prognostic factors of survival, while accounting for time dependency. A total of 1613 patients diagnosed with invasive non-metastatic breast cancer at Saint Vincent de Paul Hospital, Lille, France between 1977 and 2013, were followed for outcome (metastasis-free interval). Cohort entry time delay, a continuous temporal covariate, was defined to assess improvement of outcome. Data were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and presented as hazard ratio (HR). Metastatic disease developed during follow-up in 446 (27.6%) patients. Cohort entry time delay exhibited strong independent prognostic value while accounting for multiple prognostic factors including: tumour size (HR = 1.62, 95 %CI 1.37-1.91); rapid tumour growth (HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.17-2.16); lymph node ratio (HR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.97-2.66); histological grade (grade 2 was significant only during the first 10 years after diagnosis, grade 3 and progesterone receptor status only during the first 5 years after diagnosis); and oestrogen receptor status (significant only during the first 8 years (HR = 0.75, 95%CI 0.58-0.96)). The current study showed an improvement in the prognosis of breast cancer patients over the past 30 years and pointed to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Frequency of Unhealthy Food Advertising on Mainland Chinese Television (TV) and Children and Adolescents' Risk of Exposure to Them.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhenghua; Diao, Qinqin; Shao, Nan; Liang, Youke; Lin, Li; Lei, Yan; Zheng, Lingmei

2015-01-01

To conduct an analysis of the frequency of unhealthy food advertising on mainland Chinese television (TV) and children and adolescents' risk of exposure to them. The frequencies of all types of advertisements (ads) on forty TV channels in mainland China, the exact ad broadcast times, and the name and brand of all snacks and western fast foods advertised were recorded from 0800 hours to 2400 hours on both a weekday and a weekend day in a week. The difference in the frequencies of the diverse types of ads over eight time intervals (each time interval was 2 hours) were compared, and the trends in ad frequencies during the time intervals were described. The TV channels broadcast 155 (91-183) (expressed as median [P25-P75]) food ads, 87 (38-123) snack ads, 49 (11-85) beverage ads, and 58 (25-76) ads of snacks suitable for limited consumption (SSLCs) in a day. The proportion of snack ads among food ads (SPF%) was 55.5% (40.3%-71.0%), and the proportion of SSLC ads among snack ads (LPS%) was 67.4% (55.4%-79.3%). The ad frequencies for food, snacks, SSLCs, and beverages demonstrated significant differences among the eight time intervals (all P=0.000). TV channels broadcast the most frequent ads for food, snacks, SSLCs, and beverages during the time interval from 2000 hours to 2200 hours among the eight time intervals. Chinese children and adolescents may be at a high risk of exposure to unhealthy food advertising on TV. Reducing the exposure risk strongly requires multisectoral cooperation.

The Frequency of Unhealthy Food Advertising on Mainland Chinese Television (TV) and Children and Adolescents’ Risk of Exposure to Them

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhenghua; Diao, Qinqin; Shao, Nan; Liang, Youke; Lin, Li; Lei, Yan; Zheng, Lingmei

2015-01-01

Objective To conduct an analysis of the frequency of unhealthy food advertising on mainland Chinese television (TV) and children and adolescents’ risk of exposure to them. Methods The frequencies of all types of advertisements (ads) on forty TV channels in mainland China, the exact ad broadcast times, and the name and brand of all snacks and western fast foods advertised were recorded from 0800 hours to 2400 hours on both a weekday and a weekend day in a week. The difference in the frequencies of the diverse types of ads over eight time intervals (each time interval was 2 hours) were compared, and the trends in ad frequencies during the time intervals were described. Results The TV channels broadcast 155 (91-183) (expressed as median [P 25-P 75]) food ads, 87 (38-123) snack ads, 49 (11-85) beverage ads, and 58 (25-76) ads of snacks suitable for limited consumption (SSLCs) in a day. The proportion of snack ads among food ads (SPF%) was 55.5% (40.3%-71.0%), and the proportion of SSLC ads among snack ads (LPS%) was 67.4% (55.4%-79.3%). The ad frequencies for food, snacks, SSLCs, and beverages demonstrated significant differences among the eight time intervals (all P=0.000). TV channels broadcast the most frequent ads for food, snacks, SSLCs, and beverages during the time interval from 2000 hours to 2200 hours among the eight time intervals. Conclusions Chinese children and adolescents may be at a high risk of exposure to unhealthy food advertising on TV. Reducing the exposure risk strongly requires multisectoral cooperation. PMID:26133984

Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

PubMed

Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

2009-04-01

The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drought analysis and water resource availability using standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui-Mean, Foo; Yusop, Zulkifli; Yusof, Fadhilah

2018-03-01

Trend analysis for potential evapotranspiration (PET) and climatic water balance (CWB) is critical in identifying the wetness or dryness episodes with respect to the water surplus or deficit. The PET is computed based on the monthly average temperature for the entire Peninsular Malaysia using Thornthwaite parameterization. The trends and slope's magnitude for the PET and CWB were then investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Thiel-Sen estimator. The 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is applied to determine the drought episodes and the average recurrence interval are calculated based on the SPEI. The results indicate that most of the stations show an upward trend in annual and monthly PET while majority of the regions show an upward trend in annual CWB except for the Pahang state. The increasing trends detected in the CWB describe water is in excess especially during the northeast monsoons while the decreasing trends imply water insufficiency. The excess water is observed mostly in January especially in the west coast, east coast and southwest regions that suggest more water is available for crop requirement. The average recurrence interval for drought episodes is almost the same for the smaller severity with various time scale of SPEI and high probability of drought occurrence is observed for some regions. The findings are useful for policymakers and practitioners to improve water resources planning and management, in particular to minimise drought effects in the future. Future research shall address the influence of topography on drought behaviour using more meteorological stations and to include east Malaysia in the analysis.

Hair relaxer use and risk of uterine leiomyomata in African-American women.

PubMed

Wise, Lauren A; Palmer, Julie R; Reich, David; Cozier, Yvette C; Rosenberg, Lynn

2012-03-01

Hair relaxers are used by millions of black women, possibly exposing them to various chemicals through scalp lesions and burns. In the Black Women's Health Study, the authors assessed hair relaxer use in relation to uterine leiomyomata incidence. In 1997, participants reported on hair relaxer use (age at first use, frequency, duration, number of burns, and type of formulation). From 1997 to 2009, 23,580 premenopausal women were followed for incident uterine leiomyomata. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During 199,991 person-years, 7,146 cases of uterine leiomyomata were reported as confirmed by ultrasound (n = 4,630) or surgery (n = 2,516). The incidence rate ratio comparing ever with never use of relaxers was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.30). Positive trends were observed for frequency of use (P(trend) < 0.001), duration of use (P(trend) = 0.015), and number of burns (P(trend) < 0.001). Among long-term users (≥10 years), the incidence rate ratios for frequency of use categories 3-4, 5-6, and ≥7 versus 1-2 times/year were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.19), 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31), respectively (P(trend) = 0.002). Risk was unrelated to age at first use or type of formulation. These findings raise the hypothesis that hair relaxer use increases uterine leiomyomata risk.

Trends of earlier palliative care consultation in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative radiation therapy.

PubMed

Chang, Sanders; Sigel, Keith; Goldstein, Nathan E; Wisnivesky, Juan; Dharmarajan, Kavita V

2018-06-06

The American Society of Clinical Oncology recommends that all patients with metastatic disease receive dedicated palliative care (PC) services early in their illness, ideally via interdisciplinary care teams. We investigated the time trends of specialty palliative care consultations from the date of metastatic cancer diagnosis among patients receiving palliative radiation therapy (PRT). A shorter time interval between metastatic diagnosis and first PC consultation suggests earlier involvement of palliative care in a patient's life with metastatic cancer. In this IRB-approved retrospective analysis, patients treated with PRT for solid tumors (bone and brain) at a single tertiary care hospital between 2010 and 2016 were included. Cohorts were arbitrarily established by metastatic diagnosis within approximately two-year intervals: (1) 1/1/2010-3/27/2012; (2) 3/28/2012-5/21/2014; and (3) 5/22/2014-12/31/2016. Cox-proportional hazards regression modelling was used to compare trends of PC consultation among cohorts. Of 284 patients identified, 184 patients received PC consultation, whereas 15 patients died before receiving a PC consult. Median follow-up time until an event or censor was 257 days (range: 1,900). Patients in the most recent cohort had a shorter median time to first PC consult (57 days) compared to those in the first (374 days) and second (186 days) cohorts. On multivariable analysis, patients in the third cohort were more likely to undergo a PC consultation earlier in their metastatic illness (HR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2,2.8). Over a six-year period, palliative care consultation occurred earlier for metastatic patients treated with PRT at our institution. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Are EUR and GBP different words for the same currency?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, K.; Ausloos, M.

2002-05-01

The British Pound (GBP) is not part of the Euro (EUR) monetary system. In order to find out arguments on whether GBP should join the EUR or not correlations are calculated between GBP exchange rates with respect to various currencies: USD, JPY, CHF, DKK, the currencies forming EUR and a reconstructed EUR for the time interval from 1993 till June 30, 2000. The distribution of fluctuations of the exchange rates is Gaussian for the central part of the distribution, but has fat tails for the large size fluctuations. Within the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) statistical method the power law behavior describing the root-mean-square deviation from a linear trend of the exchange rate fluctuations is obtained as a function of time for the time interval of interest. The time-dependent exponent evolution of the exchange rate fluctuations is given. Statistical considerations imply that the GBP is already behaving as a true EUR.

Understanding Trends in Kidney Function 1 Year after Kidney Transplant in the United States.

PubMed

Huang, Yihung; Tilea, Anca; Gillespie, Brenda; Shahinian, Vahakn; Banerjee, Tanushree; Grubbs, Vanessa; Powe, Neil; Rios-Burrows, Nilka; Pavkov, Meda; Saran, Rajiv

2017-08-01

Lower eGFR 1 year after kidney transplant is associated with shorter allograft and patient survival. We examined how practice changes in the past decade correlated with time trends in average eGFR at 1 year after kidney transplant in the United States in a cohort of 189,944 patients who received a kidney transplant between 2001 and 2013. We calculated the average eGFR at 1 year after transplant for the recipient cohort of each year using the appropriate Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation depending on the prevailing methodology of creatinine measurement, and used linear regression to model the effects of practice changes on the national post-transplant eGFR trend. Between the 2001-2005 period and the 2011-2013 period, average 1-year post-transplant eGFR remained essentially unchanged, with differences of 1.34 (95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.65) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.32 to 1.01) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 among deceased and living donor kidney transplant recipients, respectively. Over time, the mean age of recipients increased and more marginal organs were used; adjusting for these trends unmasked a larger temporal improvement in post-transplant eGFR. However, changes in immunosuppression practice had a positive effect on average post-transplant eGFR and balanced out the negative effect of recipient/donor characteristics. In conclusion, average 1-year post-transplant eGFR remained stable, despite increasingly unfavorable attributes in recipients and donors. With an aging ESRD population and continued organ shortage, preservation of average post-transplant eGFR will require sustained improvement in immunosuppression and other aspects of post-transplant care. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

Estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests with random lot-to-lot variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Magari, Robert T

2002-03-01

The effect of different lot-to-lot variability levels on the prediction of stability are studied based on two statistical models for estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests. Lot-to-lot variability is considered as random in both models, and is attributed to two sources-variability at time zero, and variability of degradation rate. Real-time stability tests are modeled as a function of time while accelerated stability tests as a function of time and temperatures. Several data sets were simulated, and a maximum likelihood approach was used for estimation. The 95% confidence intervals for the degradation rate depend on the amount of lot-to-lot variability. When lot-to-lot degradation rate variability is relatively large (CV > or = 8%) the estimated confidence intervals do not represent the trend for individual lots. In such cases it is recommended to analyze each lot individually. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 91: 893-899, 2002

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

PubMed

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Roeder, William P.

2010-01-01

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

Tailoring magnetic domains in Gd-Fe thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talapatra, A.; Chelvane, J. Arout; Mohanty, J.

2018-05-01

This paper presents the global modification of magnetic domains and magnetic properties in amorphous Gd19Fe81 thin films with rapid thermal processing at two distinct temperatures (250oC and 450oC), and with different time intervals viz., 2, 5, 10 and 20 minutes. 100 nm thick as-prepared films display nano-scale meandering stripe domains with high magnetic phase contrast which is the signature of perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. The films processed at 250oC for various time intervals show successive reduction in magnetic phase contrast and domain size. The domain pattern completely disappeared, and topography dominated mixed magnetic phase has been obtained for the films processed at 450oC for time intervals greater than 2 minutes. The magnetization measurements indicate the reduction in perpendicular magnetic anisotropy with increase in saturation magnetization for all the rapid thermal processed films. The experimental outputs have been used to simulate the domain pattern. Reduction in uniaxial anisotropy along with the increase in saturation magnetization successfully explain the experimental trend of decrease in domain size and magnetic contrast.

Important Role of Menarche in Development of Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer in African American Women.

PubMed

Ambrosone, Christine B; Zirpoli, Gary; Hong, Chi-Chen; Yao, Song; Troester, Melissa A; Bandera, Elisa V; Schedin, Pepper; Bethea, Traci N; Borges, Virginia; Park, Song-Yi; Chandra, Dhyan; Rosenberg, Lynn; Kolonel, Laurence N; Olshan, Andrew F; Palmer, Julie R

2015-09-01

Menarche is a critical time point for diverging fates of mammary cells of origin. African American women have young age at menarche, which could be associated with their high rates of estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) breast cancer. In the AMBER Consortium, using harmonized data from 4426 African American women with breast cancer and 17 474 controls, we used polytomous logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ages at menarche and first live birth (FLB), and the interval between, in relation to ER+ and ER- breast cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided. Risk of ER- breast cancer was reduced with later age at menarche among both parous and nulliparous women (≥15 vs <11 years OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.81 and OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.29 to 1.10, respectively), with no effect of age at FLB. For ER+ breast cancer, the inverse association was weaker among nulliparous women. While longer intervals between menarche and FLB were associated with increased risk of ER+ breast cancer in a dose-response fashion (OR for 20 year interval = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.79, P trend = .003), ER- risk was only increased for intervals up to 14 years and not beyond (P trend = .33). While ER- breast cancer risk was markedly reduced in women with a late age at menarche, there was not a clear pattern of increased risk with longer interval between menarche and FLB, as was observed for ER+ breast cancer. These findings indicate that etiologic pathways involving adolescence and pregnancy may differ for ER- and ER+ breast cancer. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Age- and gender-specific time trend in risk of death of patients admitted with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Bots, Michiel L; Rinkel, Gabriël J E

2013-10-01

In a meta-analysis of population-based studies, case-fatality rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage have decreased worldwide by 17% between 1973 and 2002. However, age- and gender-specific decreases could not be determined. Because >10% of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage die before reaching the hospital, this suggests that the prognosis for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients has improved even more. We assessed age- and gender-specific time trends of the risk of death for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. From the Dutch hospital discharge register (nationwide coverage), we identified 9403 patients admitted with subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2006. Changes in risk of death within this time frame and influence of age and gender were quantified with Poisson regression. The overall 30-day risk of death was 34.0% (95% confidence interval 33.1 ↔ 35.0%). After adjustment for age and gender, the annual decrease was 1.6% (95% confidence interval 0.5 ↔ 2.6%), which confers to a decrease of 13.4% (95% confidence interval 4.8 ↔ 21.2%) in the study period. The one-year risk of death decreased 2.0% per year (95% confidence interval 1.1 ↔ 2.9%). The decrease in risk of death was mainly found in the period 2003-2005, was not found for patients ≥ 65 years and was statistically significant for men, but not for women. The decrease in risk of death for patients admitted in the Netherlands with subarachnoid hemorrhage is overall considerable, but unevenly distributed over age and gender. Further research should focus on reasons for improved survival (improved diagnostics, improved treatment) and reasons why improvement has not occurred for women and for patients in older age categories. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride concentrations in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran from 2003 to 2010.

PubMed

Amini, Hassan; Haghighat, Gholam Ali; Yunesian, Masud; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Mahvi, Amir Hossein; Dehghani, Mohammad Hadi; Davani, Rahim; Aminian, Abd-Rasool; Shamsipour, Mansour; Hassanzadeh, Naser; Faramarzi, Hossein; Mesdaghinia, Alireza

2016-02-01

There is discrepancy about intervals of fluoride monitoring in groundwater resources by Iranian authorities. Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran were analyzed from 2003 to 2010 using a geospatial information system and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The mean concentrations of fluoride for the 8-year period in the eight cities and 31 villages were 1.6 and 2.0 mg/l, respectively; the maximum values were 2.4 and 3.8 mg/l, respectively. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal variability of fluoride in overall groundwater resources were relatively constant over the years. However, results of the Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a monotonic trend in the time series of one city and 11 villages for the 8-year period. Specifically, one city and three villages showed positive significant Kendall's Tau values, suggesting an upward trend in fluoride concentrations over the 8-year period. In contrast, seven villages displayed negative significant Kendall's Tau values, arguing for a downward trend in fluoride concentrations over the years. From 2003 to 2010, approximately 52 % of the Larestan and Gerash areas have had fluoride concentrations above the maximum permissible Iranian drinking water standard fluoride level (1.4 mg/l), and about 116,000 people were exposed to such excess amounts. Therefore, our study supports for a close monitoring of fluoride concentrations from health authorities in monthly intervals, especially in villages and cities that showed positive trend in fluoride concentrations. Moreover, we recommend simultaneous implementation of cost-effective protective measures or interventions until a standard fluoride level is achieved.

Trends in hospitalizations of pregnant HIV-infected women in the United States: 2004 through 2011.

PubMed

Ewing, Alexander C; Datwani, Hema M; Flowers, Lisa M; Ellington, Sascha R; Jamieson, Denise J; Kourtis, Athena P

2016-10-01

With the development and widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy, HIV-infected women live longer, healthier lives. Previous research has shown that, since the adoption of combination antiretroviral therapy in the United States, rates of morbidity and adverse obstetric outcomes remained higher for HIV-infected pregnant women compared with HIV-uninfected pregnant women. Monitoring trends in the outcomes these women experience is essential, as recommendations for this special population continue to evolve with the progress of HIV treatment and prevention options. We conducted an analysis comparing rates of hospitalizations and associated outcomes among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women in the United States from 2004 through 2011. We used cross-sectional hospital discharge data for girls and women age 15-49 from the 2004, 2007, and 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of US hospital discharges. Demographic characteristics, morbidity outcomes, and time trends were compared using χ(2) tests and multivariate logistic regression. Analyses were weighted to produce national estimates. In 2011, there were 4751 estimated pregnancy hospitalizations and 3855 delivery hospitalizations for HIV-infected pregnant women; neither increased since 2004. Compared with those of HIV-uninfected women, pregnancy hospitalizations of HIV-infected women were more likely to be longer, be in the South and Northeast, be covered by public insurance, and incur higher charges (all P < .005). Hospitalizations among pregnant women with HIV infection had higher rates for many adverse outcomes. Compared to 2004, hospitalizations of HIV-infected pregnant women in 2011 had higher odds of gestational diabetes (adjusted odds ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.84), preeclampsia/hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.24), viral/mycotic/parasitic infections (adjusted odds ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-2.14), and bacterial infections (adjusted odds ratio, 2.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-4.20). Bacterial infections did not increase among hospitalizations of HIV-uninfected pregnant women. The numbers of hospitalizations during pregnancy and delivery have not increased for HIV-infected women since 2004, a departure from previously estimated trends. Pregnancy hospitalizations of HIV-infected women remain more medically complex than those of HIV-uninfected women. An increasing trend in infections among the delivery hospitalizations of HIV-infected pregnant women warrant further attention. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Positive impact of the participation in the ENCHANTED trial in reducing Door-to-Needle Time.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Wang, Xia; Yu, Jian Ping; Hang, Jing; Lavados, Pablo; Robinson, Thompson; Arima, Hisatomi; Lindley, Richard I; Anderson, Craig S; Chalmers, John

2017-10-26

Door-to-needle time (DNT) is a key performance indicator for efficient use of intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We aimed to determine whether DNT improved over time in the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Acute Stroke Study (ENCHANTED) and the clinical predictors of DNT. Temporal trends in DNT were assessed across fourths of time since activation of study centers using generalized linear model. Predictors of long DNT (>60 min) were determined in logistic regression models. Overall mean DNT (min) was 71.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 70.4-73.2), but decreased significantly over time (fourths): 77.9 (74.9-80.9), 69.3 (66.7-72.0), 69.1 (66.5-71.8) and 71.4 (68.7-74.2) (P for trend, 0.003). The reduction in DNT was particularly marked in China (P for trend, 0.001), but was not significant across the other participating countries (P for trend, 0.065). Independent predictors of long DNT were recruitment from China, short onset-to-door time, lower numbers of patients treated per center, higher diastolic blood pressure, off-hour admission, and absence of proximal clot occlusion. DNT in ENCHANTED declined progressively during the trial, especially in China. However, DNT in China is still longer than the key performance parameter of ≤60 minutes recommended in guidelines. Effective national programs are needed to improve DNT in China.

Improving photoprotection attitudes in the tropics: sunburn vs vitamin D.

PubMed

Silva, Abel A

2014-01-01

The ultraviolet radiation of type B (the UVB) stimulates both the production of vitamin D (VD) and the incorporation of erythema dose (ED). The UVA also contributes to ED. The turning point between the benefit of producing VD and the harm of incorporating ED cannot be determined easily. However, the casual behavior regarding the exposure to the Sun can be changed in order to improve the protoprotection attitudes and create a trend towards benefit. In the case, people living in the low latitudes should exposure themselves to the Sun for a determined time interval within the noon time and avoid the Sun in other periods. This would produce an adequate amount of VD through the VD dose (207-214 J m(-2)) against minimum ED (≈105 J m(-2)) for skin type II. For it, unprotected forearms and hands must be exposed to the noon Sun (cloudless) for 11 min (winter) and 5 min (summer). The exposure at other times different from noon can represent increases of up to 24% in ED and up to 12 times in the time interval to be in the Sun in relation to the minimum amounts of both ED and time interval at noon. © 2014 The American Society of Photobiology.

The effect of ageing on the mechanical properties of the silk of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, Emiliano; Isaia, Marco; Mammola, Stefano; Pugno, Nicola

2016-05-01

Spider silk is regarded as one of the best natural polymer fibers especially in terms of low density, high tensile strength and high elongation until breaking. Since only a few bio-engineering studies have been focused on spider silk ageing, we conducted nano-tensile tests on the vertical naturally spun silk fibers of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757) (Arachnida, Araneae) to evaluate changes in the mechanical properties of the silk (ultimate stress and strain, Young’s modulus, toughness) over time. We studied the natural process of silk ageing at different time intervals from spinning (20 seconds up to one month), comparing silk fibers spun from adult spiders collected in the field. Data were analyzed using Linear Mixed Models. We detected a positive trend versus time for the Young’s modulus, indicating that aged silks are stiffer and possibly less effective in catching prey. Moreover, we observed a negative trend for the ultimate strain versus time, attesting a general decrement of the resistance force. These trends are interpreted as being due to the drying of the silk protein chains and the reorientation among the fibers.

Exponential evolution: implications for intelligent extraterrestrial life.

PubMed

Russell, D A

1983-01-01

Some measures of biologic complexity, including maximal levels of brain development, are exponential functions of time through intervals of 10(6) to 10(9) yrs. Biological interactions apparently stimulate evolution but physical conditions determine the time required to achieve a given level of complexity. Trends in brain evolution suggest that other organisms could attain human levels within approximately 10(7) yrs. The number (N) and longevity (L) terms in appropriate modifications of the Drake Equation, together with trends in the evolution of biological complexity on Earth, could provide rough estimates of the prevalence of life forms at specified levels of complexity within the Galaxy. If life occurs throughout the cosmos, exponential evolutionary processes imply that higher intelligence will soon (10(9) yrs) become more prevalent than it now is. Changes in the physical universe become less rapid as time increases from the Big Bang. Changes in biological complexity may be most rapid at such later times. This lends a unique and symmetrical importance to early and late universal times.

New labor management guidelines and changes in cesarean delivery patterns.

PubMed

Rosenbloom, Joshua I; Stout, Molly J; Tuuli, Methodius G; Woolfolk, Candice L; López, Julia D; Macones, George A; Cahill, Alison G

2017-12-01

In 2010 the Consortium on Safe Labor published labor curves. It was proposed that the rate of cesarean delivery could be lowered by avoiding the diagnosis of arrest of dilation before 6 cm. However, there is little information on the uptake of the guidelines and on changes in cesarean delivery rates that may have occurred. The objective of the study was to test the following hypotheses: (1) among patients laboring at term, rates of arrest of dilation disorders have decreased, leading to a decrease in the rate of cesarean delivery; (2) in the second stage, pushing duration prior to diagnosis of arrest of descent has increased, also leading to a reduction in the rate of cesarean delivery for this indication. As a secondary aim, we investigated changes in maternal and neonatal morbidity. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of all patients presenting at ≥37 weeks' gestation from 2010 through 2014 with a nonanomalous vertex singleton and no prior history of cesarean delivery. Rates of cesarean delivery, arrest of dilation, and changes in rates of maternal and neonatal morbidity were calculated in crude and adjusted models. Cervical dilation at diagnosis of the arrest of dilation, time spent at the maximal dilation prior to diagnosis of arrest of dilation, and time in the second stage prior to the diagnosis of arrest of descent were compared over the study period. There were 7845 eligible patients. The cesarean delivery rate in 2010 was 15.8% and, in 2014, 17.7% (P trend = .51). In patients undergoing cesarean delivery for the arrest of dilation, the median cervical dilation at the time of cesarean delivery was at 5.5 cm in 2010 and 6.0 cm in 2014 (P trend = .94). In these patients, there was an increase in the time spent at last dilation: 3.8 hours in 2010 to 5.2 hours in 2014 (P trend = .02). There was no change in the frequency of patients diagnosed with the arrest of dilation at <6 cm: 51.4% in 2010 and 48.6% in 2014 (P trend = .56). However, in these patients, the median time spent at the last cervical dilation was 4.0 hours in 2010 and 6.7 hours in 2014 (P trend = .046). There were 206 cesarean deliveries for the arrest of descent. The median pushing time in these patients increased in multiparous patients from 1.1 hours in 2010 to 3.4 hours in 2014 (P trend = .009); in nulliparous patients these times were 2.7 hours in 2010 and 3.8 hours in 2014 (P trend = .09). There was a significant trend toward increasing adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes (P < .001 for each). The adjusted odds ratio for adverse maternal outcome for 2014 compared with 2010 was 1.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.17); however, considering only transfusion, hemorrhage, or infection, there was no difference (P trend = .96). The adjusted odds ratio of adverse neonatal outcome in 2014 compared with 2010 was 1.80 (95% confidence interval, 1.36-2.36). Despite significant changes in labor management that have occurred over the initial years since publication of the new labor curves and associated guidelines, the primary cesarean delivery rate was not reduced and there has been an increase in maternal and neonatal morbidity in our institution. A randomized controlled trial is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time series models on analysing mortality rates and acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.

PubMed

Kis, Maria

2005-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate applying time series models on medical research. The Hungarian mortality rates were analysed by autoregressive integrated moving average models and seasonal time series models examined the data of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.The mortality data may be analysed by time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. This method is demonstrated by two examples: analysis of the mortality rates of ischemic heart diseases and analysis of the mortality rates of cancer of digestive system. Mathematical expressions are given for the results of analysis. The relationships between time series of mortality rates were studied with ARIMA models. Calculations of confidence intervals for autoregressive parameters by tree methods: standard normal distribution as estimation and estimation of the White's theory and the continuous time case estimation. Analysing the confidence intervals of the first order autoregressive parameters we may conclude that the confidence intervals were much smaller than other estimations by applying the continuous time estimation model.We present a new approach to analysing the occurrence of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia. We decompose time series into components. The periodicity of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia in Hungary was examined using seasonal decomposition time series method. The cyclic trend of the dates of diagnosis revealed that a higher percent of the peaks fell within the winter months than in the other seasons. This proves the seasonal occurrence of the childhood leukaemia in Hungary.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Temporal Trends in Sex Differences With Regard to Stroke Incidence: The Dijon Stroke Registry (1987-2012).

PubMed

Giroud, Marie; Delpont, Benoit; Daubail, Benoit; Blanc, Christelle; Durier, Jérôme; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick

2017-04-01

We evaluated temporal trends in stroke incidence between men and women to determine whether changes in the distribution of vascular risk factors have influenced sex differences in stroke epidemiology. Patients with first-ever stroke including ischemic stroke, spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and undetermined stroke between 1987 and 2012 were identified through the population-based registry of Dijon, France. Incidence rates were calculated for age groups, sex, and stroke subtypes. Sex differences and temporal trends (according to 5-year time periods) were evaluated by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with Poisson regression. Four thousand six hundred and fourteen patients with a first-ever stroke (53.1% women) were recorded. Incidence was lower in women than in men (112 versus 166 per 100 000/y; IRR, 0.68; P <0.001), especially in age group 45 to 84 years, and for both ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. From 1987 to 2012, the lower incidence of overall stroke in women was stable (IRR ranging between 0.63 and 0.72 according to study periods). When considering stroke subtype, a slight increase in the incidence of ischemic stroke was observed in both men (IRR, 1.011; 95% confidence interval, 1.005-1.016; P =0.001) and women (IRR, 1.013; 95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.018; P =0.001). The sex gap in incidence remained unchanged in ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. Conversely, the lower subarachnoid hemorrhage incidence in women vanished with time because of an increasing incidence. The sex gap in stroke incidence did not change with time except for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Despite lower rates, more women than men experience an incident stroke each year because of a longer life expectancy. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, Chie; Tagami, Takashi; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III-V) from the 2004-2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004-2008), phase II (2009-2012), and phase III (2013-2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury.

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Chie; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Background Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. Methods We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III–V) from the 2004–2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004–2008), phase II (2009–2012), and phase III (2013–2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Results Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22–0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). Conclusions In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury. PMID:28910356

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-07-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1-2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non-self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends-much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems.

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

PubMed

Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal trends in serum ferritin levels and associated factors in a national incident hemodialysis cohort.

PubMed

Kim, Taehee; Rhee, Connie M; Streja, Elani; Obi, Yoshitsugu; Brunelli, Steven M; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2017-02-01

The rise in serum ferritin levels among US maintenance hemodialysis patients has been attributed to higher intravenous iron administration and other changes in practice. We examined ferritin trends over time in hemodialysis patients and whether iron utilization patterns and other factors [erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) prescribing patterns, inflammatory markers] were associated with ferritin trajectory. In a 5-year (January 2007–December 2011) cohort of 81 864 incident US hemodialysis patients, we examined changes in ferritin averaged over 3-month intervals using linear mixed effects models adjusted for intravenous iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers. We then examined ferritin trends across strata of baseline ferritin level, dialysis initiation year, cumulative iron and ESA use in the first dialysis year and baseline hemoglobin level. In models adjusted for iron dose, malnutrition and inflammation, mean ferritin levels increased over time in the overall cohort and across the three lower baseline ferritin strata. Among patients initiating dialysis in 2007, mean ferritin levels increased sharply in the first versus second year of dialysis and again abruptly increased in the fifth year independent of iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers; similar trends were observed among patients who initiated dialysis in 2008 and 2009. In analyses stratified by cumulative iron use, mean ferritin increased among groups receiving iron, but decreased in the no iron group. In analyses stratified by cumulative ESA dose and baseline hemoglobin, mean ferritin increased over time. While ferritin trends correlated with patterns of iron use, increases in ferritin over time persisted independent of intravenous iron and ESA exposure, malnutrition and inflammation.

Design tradeoffs for trend assessment in aquatic biological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurtz, Martin E.; Van Sickle, John; Carlisle, Daren M.; Paulsen, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Assessments of long-term (multiyear) temporal trends in biological monitoring programs are generally undertaken without an adequate understanding of the temporal variability of biological communities. When the sources and levels of variability are unknown, managers cannot make informed choices in sampling design to achieve monitoring goals in a cost-effective manner. We evaluated different trend sampling designs by estimating components of both short- and long-term variability in biological indicators of water quality in streams. Invertebrate samples were collected from 32 sites—9 urban, 6 agricultural, and 17 relatively undisturbed (reference) streams—distributed throughout the United States. Between 5 and 12 yearly samples were collected at each site during the period 1993–2008, plus 2 samples within a 10-week index period during either 2007 or 2008. These data allowed calculation of four sources of variance for invertebrate indicators: among sites, among years within sites, interaction among sites and years (site-specific annual variation), and among samples collected within an index period at a site (residual). When estimates of these variance components are known, changes to sampling design can be made to improve trend detection. Design modifications that result in the ability to detect the smallest trend with the fewest samples are, from most to least effective: (1) increasing the number of years in the sampling period (duration of the monitoring program), (2) decreasing the interval between samples, and (3) increasing the number of repeat-visit samples per year (within an index period). This order of improvement in trend detection, which achieves the greatest gain for the fewest samples, is the same whether trends are assessed at an individual site or an average trend of multiple sites. In multiple-site surveys, increasing the number of sites has an effect similar to that of decreasing the sampling interval; the benefit of adding sites is greater when a new set of different sites is selected for each sampling effort than when the same sites are sampled each time. Understanding variance components of the ecological attributes of interest can lead to more cost-effective monitoring designs to detect trends.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

Temporal Variability in the Deglutition Literature

PubMed Central

Molfenter, Sonja M.; Steele, Catriona M.

2013-01-01

A literature review was conducted on temporal measures of swallowing in healthy individuals with the purpose of determining the degree of variability present in such measures within the literature. A total of 46 studies that met inclusion criteria were reviewed. The definitions and descriptive statistics for all reported temporal parameters were compiled for meta-analysis. In total, 119 different temporal parameters were found in the literature. The three most-frequently occurring durational measures were: UES opening, laryngeal closure and hyoid movement. The three most-frequently occurring interval measures were: stage transition duration, pharyngeal transit time and duration from laryngeal closure to UES opening. Subtle variations in operational definitions across studies were noted, making the comparison of data challenging. Analysis of forest plots compiling descriptive statistical data (means and 95% confidence intervals) across studies revealed differing degrees of variability across durations and intervals. Two parameters (UES opening duration and the laryngeal-closure-to-UES-opening interval) demonstrated the least variability, reflected by small ranges for mean values and tight confidence intervals. Trends emerged for factors of bolus size and participant age for some variables. Other potential sources of variability are discussed. PMID:22366761

Emerging Trends in Surgical and Adjuvant Radiation Therapies among Women Diagnosed with Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

PubMed Central

Shiyanbola, Oyewale O.; Sprague, Brian L.; Hampton, John M.; Dittus, Kim; James, Ted A.; Herschorn, Sally; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Weaver, Donald L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The use of surgery and radiation therapy in treating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is directed by treatment guidelines and evidence from research. We sought to investigate recent patterns in DCIS treatment by demographic factors. METHODS Data for women diagnosed with DCIS between 1998 and 2011 (n = 416,232) in the National Cancer Data Base were assessed for trends in treatment patterns by age group, calendar year, ancestral/ethnic group and geographic region. The likelihood of receiving specific treatment modalities was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS DCIS cases were most frequently treated with breast conserving surgery (BCS) and adjuvant radiation (45.6%). After an initial rise, the use of adjuvant radiation following BCS plateaued at around 70% after 2007, with increasing utilization of mastectomy beyond 2005. Additionally, there was an increasing trend in post-mastectomy reconstruction over time, and women of African ancestry (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval,0.66–0.72) and Hispanic women were less likely to undergo reconstruction (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.89) compared to women of European ancestry. A similar trend was observed in contralateral risk reducing mastectomy utilization, with women of European ancestry having a more rapid rise in the utilization of contralateral risk reducing mastectomy among all ancestral/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION Recent trends demonstrate a plateau in radiation therapy administration following BCS, with increasing utilization of mastectomy, reconstruction and contralateral risk reducing mastectomy. There are substantial differences in treatment utilization according to ancestry/ethnicity and geographical region. Further studies examining patient-physician decision making surrounding DCIS treatment are warranted. PMID:27244699

[Environment and health in Taranto, southern Italy: epidemiological studies and public health recommendations].

PubMed

Comba, Pietro; Pirastu, Roberta; Conti, Susanna; De Santis, Marco; Iavarone, Ivano; Marsili, Giovanni; Mincuzzi, Antonia; Minelli, Giada; Manno, Valerio; Minerba, Sante; Musmeci, Loredana; Rashid, Ivan; Soggiu, Eleonora; Zona, Amerigo

2012-01-01

in Taranto IPS (Italian polluted site, made up of 2 municipalities) the Decree defining site boundaries lists the presence of a refinery, a steel plant, a harbour area and waste landfills together with illegal dumping sites. Previous environmental and epidemiological investigations in the area documented the presence of environmental contamination and increased mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as well as a number of cancer sites; for these same health outcomes the cohort study of residents showed increased risk both in terms of mortality and morbidity. to describe the health status of residents in Taranto IPS analyzing different health indicators available at municipal level, i.e. mortality (2003-2009), mortality time trend (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006-2007). the analyses were carried out for residents in Taranto IPS. Mortality update (SENTIERI Project, 2003-2009) regards 63 single or grouped causes (all ages, both genders); for a selection of causes 0-1 and 0-14 age classes were analyzed (both genders combined). Standardized mortality ratio crude (SMR) and deprivation adjusted together with 90% confidence intervals (90%CI) were computed using regional rates for comparison. Mortality time trend (1980-2008, triennial intervals) were analyzed calculating standardized rates (0-99 years, both genders, per 100,000, Italian population at 2001 Census as reference) and 90%CI. Time trends were computed for all causes, all neoplasms (and lung cancer), cardiovascular diseases (and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (also acute and chronic) and all causes infant mortality (both genders combined). For cancer incidence (2006-2007) Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 90%CI were calculated for both genders; incidence rates of cancer registries of the macroarea South and Islands (2005-2007) and rates of Taranto Province excluding SIN municipalities (2006-2007) were used for comparison. in Taranto IPS mortality among men is in excess in both periods (SENTIERI Project 1995-2002 and 2003-2009) for all causes, all neoplasms (including lung and pleural cancer), dementia, cardiovascular diseases (including hypertension and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (including the acute ones) and digestive diseases (including liver cirrhosis). All causes infant mortality is in excess in both periods. Time trends show that Taranto IPS rates are higher than regional average in the majority of time intervals for most causes in both genders. Rates are often higher than national average form any triennial intervals. Among males, over the whole period, mortality in Taranto IPS is higher than regional and national average for causes as lung cancer, diseases of the respiratory system, including the chronic ones. Among females, since the early Nineties, lung cancer and ischemic heart diseases are in excess in Taranto IPS. Also infant mortality is higher for the whole period in Taranto IPS than regional and national averages. Cancer incidence results show excesses for cancer sites already indicated by mortality data. mortality analyzed in the context of SENTIERI Project (1995-2002 and 2003-2009), time trend mortality (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006- 2007) show, in both genders, excesses for causes for which an etiologic role of environmental exposure present in Taranto IPS are either ascertained or suspected on the basis of a priori evaluation of the epidemiological evidence. The finding of excess infant mortality is of the utmost importance in public health terms. Most diseases showing an increased risk have multifactorial etiology, therefore interventions of proven efficacy, such as smoking cessation, food education, measures for cardiovascular risk reduction and breast cancer and colon screening programmes should be planned. To build a climate of confidence and trust between citizens and public institutions study results and public health actions are to be communicated objectively and transparently.

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Persistence of space radiation induced cytogenetic damage in the blood lymphocytes of astronauts.

PubMed

George, K; Chappell, L J; Cucinotta, F A

2010-08-14

Cytogenetic damage was assessed in blood lymphocytes from 16 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of 3 months or more. The frequency of chromosome damage was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting before flight and at various intervals from a few days to many months after return from the mission. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome exchanges measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield. However, some individuals showed a temporal decline in chromosome damage with time after flight. Statistical analysis using combined data for all astronauts indicated a significant overall decreasing trend in total chromosome exchanges with time after flight, although this trend was not seen for all astronauts and the yield of chromosome damage in some individuals actually increased with time after flight. The decreasing trend in total exchanges was slightly more significant when statistical analysis was restricted to data collected more than 220 days after return from flight. When analysis was restricted to data collected within 220 days of return from the mission there was no relationship between total exchanges and time. Translocation yields varied more between astronauts and there was only a slight non-significant decrease with time after flight that was similar for both later and earlier sampling times. Copyright (c) 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Space and time scales of shoreline change at Cape Cod National Seashore, MA, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, J.R.; LaBash, C.L.; List, J.H.; Kraus, Nicholas C.; McDougal, William G.

1999-01-01

Different processes cause patterns of shoreline change which are exhibited at different magnitudes and nested into different spatial and time scale hierarchies. The 77-km outer beach at Cape Cod National Seashore offers one of the few U.S. federally owned portions of beach to study shoreline change within the full range of sediment source and sink relationships, and barely affected by human intervention. 'Mean trends' of shoreline changes are best observed at long time scales but contain much spatial variation thus many sites are not equal in response. Long-term, earlier-noted trends are confirmed but the added quantification and resolution improves greatly the understanding of appropriate spatial and time scales of those processes driving bluff retreat and barrier island changes in both north and south depocenters. Shorter timescales allow for comparison of trends and uncertainty in shoreline change at local scales but are dependent upon some measure of storm intensity and seasonal frequency. Single-event shoreline survey results for one storm at daily intervals after the erosional phase suggest a recovery time for the system of six days, identifies three sites with abnormally large change, and that responses at these sites are spatially coherent for now unknown reasons. Areas near inlets are the most variable at all time scales. Hierarchies in both process and form are suggested.

Effect of Maternal–Child Home Visitation on Pregnancy Spacing for First-Time Latina Mothers

PubMed Central

Chesnokova, Arina; Matone, Meredith; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, A. Russell; Rubin, David M.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of a maternal–child home visitation program on birth spacing for first-time Latina mothers, focusing on adolescents and women who identified as Mexican or Puerto Rican. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study. One thousand Latina women enrolled in the Pennsylvania Nurse–Family Partnership between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were matched to nonenrolled Latina women using propensity scores. The primary outcome was the time to second pregnancy that resulted in a live birth (interpregnancy interval). Proportional hazards models and bootstrap methods compared the time to event. Results. Home visitation was associated with a small decrease in the risk of a short interpregnancy interval (≤ 18 months) among Latina women (hazards ratio [HR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75, 0.99). This effect was driven by outcomes among younger adolescent women (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.65, 0.96). There was also a trend toward significance for women of Mexican heritage (HR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.49, 1.07), although this effect might be attributed to individual agency performance. Conclusions. Home visitation using the Nurse–Family Partnership model had measurable effects on birth spacing in Latina women. PMID:24354820

Effect of maternal-child home visitation on pregnancy spacing for first-time Latina mothers.

PubMed

Yun, Katherine; Chesnokova, Arina; Matone, Meredith; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, A Russell; Rubin, David M

2014-02-01

We examined the impact of a maternal-child home visitation program on birth spacing for first-time Latina mothers, focusing on adolescents and women who identified as Mexican or Puerto Rican. This was a retrospective cohort study. One thousand Latina women enrolled in the Pennsylvania Nurse-Family Partnership between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were matched to nonenrolled Latina women using propensity scores. The primary outcome was the time to second pregnancy that resulted in a live birth (interpregnancy interval). Proportional hazards models and bootstrap methods compared the time to event. Home visitation was associated with a small decrease in the risk of a short interpregnancy interval (≤ 18 months) among Latina women (hazards ratio [HR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75, 0.99). This effect was driven by outcomes among younger adolescent women (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.65, 0.96). There was also a trend toward significance for women of Mexican heritage (HR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.49, 1.07), although this effect might be attributed to individual agency performance. Home visitation using the Nurse-Family Partnership model had measurable effects on birth spacing in Latina women.

Dietary Protein and Potassium, Diet-Dependent Net Acid Load, and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones.

PubMed

Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Mandel, Ernest I; Curhan, Gary C; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N

2016-10-07

Protein and potassium intake and the resulting diet-dependent net acid load may affect kidney stone formation. It is not known whether protein type or net acid load is associated with risk of kidney stones. We prospectively examined intakes of protein (dairy, nondairy animal, and vegetable), potassium, and animal protein-to-potassium ratio (an estimate of net acid load) and risk of incident kidney stones in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study ( n =42,919), the Nurses' Health Study I ( n =60,128), and the Nurses' Health Study II ( n =90,629). Multivariable models were adjusted for age, body mass index, diet, and other factors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations with 24-hour urine ( n =6129). During 3,108,264 person-years of follow-up, there were 6308 incident kidney stones. Dairy protein was associated with lower risk in the Nurses' Health Study II (hazard ratio for highest versus lowest quintile, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.96; P value for trend <0.01). The hazard ratios for nondairy animal protein were 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.36; P value for trend =0.04) in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.46; P value for trend =0.06) in the Nurses' Health Study I. Potassium intake was associated with lower risk in all three cohorts (hazard ratios from 0.44 [95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.53] to 0.67 [95% confidence interval, 0.57 to 0.78]; P values for trend <0.001). Animal protein-to-potassium ratio was associated with higher risk ( P value for trend =0.004), even after adjustment for animal protein and potassium. Higher dietary potassium was associated with higher urine citrate, pH, and volume ( P values for trend <0.002). Kidney stone risk may vary by protein type. Diets high in potassium or with a relative abundance of potassium compared with animal protein could represent a means of stone prevention. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Dietary Protein and Potassium, Diet–Dependent Net Acid Load, and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones

PubMed Central

Mandel, Ernest I.; Curhan, Gary C.; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Protein and potassium intake and the resulting diet–dependent net acid load may affect kidney stone formation. It is not known whether protein type or net acid load is associated with risk of kidney stones. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We prospectively examined intakes of protein (dairy, nondairy animal, and vegetable), potassium, and animal protein-to-potassium ratio (an estimate of net acid load) and risk of incident kidney stones in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (n=42,919), the Nurses’ Health Study I (n=60,128), and the Nurses’ Health Study II (n=90,629). Multivariable models were adjusted for age, body mass index, diet, and other factors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations with 24-hour urine (n=6129). Results During 3,108,264 person-years of follow-up, there were 6308 incident kidney stones. Dairy protein was associated with lower risk in the Nurses’ Health Study II (hazard ratio for highest versus lowest quintile, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.96; P value for trend <0.01). The hazard ratios for nondairy animal protein were 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.36; P value for trend =0.04) in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.46; P value for trend =0.06) in the Nurses’ Health Study I. Potassium intake was associated with lower risk in all three cohorts (hazard ratios from 0.44 [95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.53] to 0.67 [95% confidence interval, 0.57 to 0.78]; P values for trend <0.001). Animal protein-to-potassium ratio was associated with higher risk (P value for trend =0.004), even after adjustment for animal protein and potassium. Higher dietary potassium was associated with higher urine citrate, pH, and volume (P values for trend <0.002). Conclusions Kidney stone risk may vary by protein type. Diets high in potassium or with a relative abundance of potassium compared with animal protein could represent a means of stone prevention. PMID:27445166

Variability of higher order wavefront aberrations after blinks.

PubMed

Hagyó, Krisztina; Csákány, Béla; Lang, Zsolt; Németh, János

2009-01-01

To investigate the rapid alterations in value and fluctuation of ocular wavefront aberrations during the interblink interval. Forty-two volunteers were examined with a WASCA Wavefront Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec AG) using modified software. For each subject, 150 images (about 6 frames/second) were registered during an interblink period. The outcome measures were spherical and cylindrical refraction and root-mean-square (RMS) values for spherical, coma, and total higher order aberrations. Fifth order polynomials were fitted to the data and the fluctuation trends of the parameters were determined. We calculated the prevalence of the trends with an early local minimum (type 1). The tear production status (Schirmer test) and tear film break-up time (BUT) were also measured. Fluctuation trends with an early minimum (type 1) were significantly more frequent than trends with an early local maximum (type 2) for total higher order aberrations RMS (P=.036). The incidence of type 1 fluctuation trends was significantly greater for coma and total higher order aberrations RMS (P=.041 and P=.003, respectively) in subjects with normal results in the BUT or Schirmer test than in those with abnormal results. In the normal subjects, the first minimum of type 1 RMS fluctuation trends occurred, on average, between 3.8 and 5.1 seconds after blink. We suggest that wavefront aberrations can be measured most accurately at the time after blink when they exhibit a decreased degree of dispersion. We recommend that a snapshot of wavefront measurements be made 3 to 5 seconds after blink.

A new record of the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum from the Mississippi Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platt, B. F.; Gerweck, E. D.

2017-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene interval is well known as a time of climatic transitions, especially hyperthermals associated with disturbances in the carbon cycle that are used as proxies for impacts of projected anthropogenic global climate change. A recent roadcut in Benton County, Mississippi exposes a disconformity between the Paleocene Naheola Formation and the Eocene Meridian Sand. The disconformity is developed on a thick, kaolinitic paleosol, which we interpret as a mature Oxisol that supported tropical rainforest vegetation (as evidenced by associated well preserved leaf fossils). The nature of the paleosol at the disconformity led us to hypothesize that the strata might contain evidence of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). We sampled two Mississippi Mineral Resources Institute (MMRI) cores from the equivalent stratigraphic interval from Benton and Tippah Counties, Mississippi, for bulk organic carbon stable isotopes at 25-cm intervals. Results showed no evidence of the negative excursion characteristic of the PETM. Instead, we found a gradual upsection enrichment that we interpret as the positive trend characteristic of the lower Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum (PCIM). This is reasonable based on published biostratigraphy and absolute ages from elsewhere in the Naheola Formation. Further analyses will be performed to determine whether the PCIM trend continues throughout the remainder of the core. The identification of the PCIM in Mississippi Embayment (ME) sediments is important because stable carbon isotope data may be useful for improving chronostratigraphy in the ME. Also, the PCIM is associated with a gradual warming trend as indicated by previously published stable oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera. Studying successive ME paleosols throughout the PCIM may yield information about the impacts of gradual atmospheric warming on soils and associated terrestrial systems.

Clinical Use of Tobramycin Inhalation Solution (TOBI®) Shows Sustained Improvement in FEV1 in Cystic Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Konstan, Michael W.; Wagener, Jeffrey S.; Pasta, David J.; Millar, Stefanie J.; Morgan, Wayne J.

2014-01-01

Objectives Tobramycin inhalation solution (TIS; TOBI®) has improved forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in cystic fibrosis (CF) trials. Using data from the Epidemiologic Study of CF (ESCF), we assessed the change in level and trend of FEV1 % predicted (pred) over a 2-year period associated with initiation of TIS during routine clinical practice. Methods Patients age 8–38 years and in ESCF for ≥2 years before treatment with TIS as a chronic therapy were selected if they remained on therapy for 2 years, defined as being on TIS for at least 3 months per year (C-TIS group). Comparator intervals age 8–38 years used TIS <10% of the time. For each interval, we estimated the level and trend (rate of decline) in FEV1 % pred before and after the index using a piecewise linear mixed-effects model adjusted for potential confounders. Results During the 2-year pre-index period the C-TIS group (n = 2,534) had a more rapid decline in FEV1 (−2.49 vs. −1.39 % pred/yr) and a lower FEV1 at index (62.6 vs. 74.7 % pred) than the comparator group (N = 17,656 intervals). After starting chronic TIS, the FEV1 trend line over the 2-year post-index period was higher, but the comparator group’s FEV1 was essentially unchanged (difference 2.22, P < 0.001). Change in slope was not different between groups (0.06, P = 0.82). Conclusions Initiating chronic TIS therapy in the routine clinical care of patients with CF was associated with improvement in FEV1 % pred but no change in rate of decline, which means that this benefit was sustained over the 2 years studied. PMID:24019211

Comparing trends in cancer rates across overlapping regions.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Tiwari, Ram C

2008-12-01

Monitoring and comparing trends in cancer rates across geographic regions or over different time periods have been major tasks of the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program as it profiles healthcare quality as well as decides healthcare resource allocations within a spatial-temporal framework. A fundamental difficulty, however, arises when such comparisons have to be made for regions or time intervals that overlap, for example, comparing the change in trends of mortality rates in a local area (e.g., the mortality rate of breast cancer in California) with a more global level (i.e., the national mortality rate of breast cancer). In view of sparsity of available methodologies, this article develops a simple corrected Z-test that accounts for such overlapping. The performance of the proposed test over the two-sample "pooled"t-test that assumes independence across comparison groups is assessed via the Pitman asymptotic relative efficiency as well as Monte Carlo simulations and applications to the SEER cancer data. The proposed test will be important for the SEER * STAT software, maintained by the NCI, for the analysis of the SEER data.

An investigation of a hypothermic to ischemic ratio in patients following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest presenting with a shockable rhythm.

PubMed

Sawyer, Kelly N; Kurz, Michael C; Elswick, R K

2014-06-01

Targeted temperature management (TTM) improves outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). We hypothesized that there may be a significant relationship between the dose of hypothermia, the time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), and survival to discharge. Retrospective pilot investigation on 99 consecutive OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm, surviving to admission, and undergoing TTM between 2008 and 2011. Dose of hypothermia was defined as the sum of the induction interval (time to target temperature [from ROSC to 33°C]); the controlled hypothermia interval (from reaching 33°C until rewarming); and the rewarming interval (from 33°C to 37°C). Time to ROSC was measured from pulselessness or 911 call time to ROSC. The ratio between the two was termed the hypothermic to ischemic ratio. Purposeful variable selection for logistic regression modeling was used to assess the influence of the hypothermic/ischemic ratio on survival. Odds ratios (OR) were used to examine the effects of predictor variables on survival. Of 99 patients, eight were excluded for deviation from protocol, death during protocol, or missing data. From the univariate models, survivors were more likely to be younger, have a shorter time to ROSC, and have a larger hypothermic/ischemic ratio. Survivors also had a nonsignificant trend toward a longer time to target temperature. In multivariable modeling, the hypothermic/ischemic ratio was the most significant predictor for survival (OR 2.161 [95% confidence interval 1.371, 3.404]). In this pilot study, the hypothermic to ischemic ratio was significantly associated with survival to discharge for patients with an initial shockable rhythm. Further investigation of the relationship between the dose of hypothermia and time to ROSC for postresuscitation TTM is needed.

Shear-wave polarization anisotropy in the mantle wedge beneath the southern part of Tohoku, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, J.; Nakajima, J.; Hasegawa, A.

2003-12-01

We investigated shear-wave polarization anisotropy in the mantle wedge beneath the southern part of Tohoku, Japan, by using waveform data of intermediate depth earthquakes with M>2.5 recorded by the seismic networks of Tohoku University and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). We selected waveform data with ray paths whose incident angles to the surface are 35 degrees or less to avoid contamination of particle motions by converted phases. All the seismograms thus selected were filtered with bandpassed ranges of 2-8 Hz. Cross-correlation method [Ando et al., 1983] was used for determining delay time between the leading and following shear-waves (delay time) and the leading shear-wave polarization direction (fast direction). Two horizontal components of observed seismograms were rotated with the direction from 0 to 180 degrees with an interval of 5 degrees, and shifted one horizontal component by a time lag. The time lag varied from 0 to 1 s with an interval of 0.01 s. The length of time window used to calculate correlation coefficient was set to be nearly equal to one cycle of the shear-wave. We do not use the data whose maximum correlation coefficient is less than 0.8. Obtained results show that most of the fast directions at stations in the back-arc side are nearly E-W, whereas those at stations in the fore-arc side are N-S. We infer that the anisotropy caused by lattice-preferred orientation of olivine, which is probably produced by flow in the mantle wedge, is a likely candidate for the observed shear-wave splitting with E-W trend fast directions in the back-arc side. Although it is not certain what causes the N-S trend fast directions in the for-arc side, the same trend is seen in the previous studies of other areas in Tohoku [Okada et al.,1995; Nakajima, 2002]. Observed delay times are mostly 0.1-0.3 s, which is consistent with the results of Okada et al. [1995] and Nakajima [2002]. Acknowledgments: We are grateful to the staff of the JMA for allowing us to use their data.

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Swieringa, Kurt A.; Capron, William R.

2012-01-01

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Trends in adverse events of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in the USA, 1998 to 2008.

PubMed

Stroup, Sean P; Palazzi-Churas, Kerrin; Kopp, Ryan P; Parsons, J Kellogg

2012-01-01

To determine if the adverse events (AEs) of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) have declined in tandem with increased use of oral therapy. We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a 20% sample of USA community hospitals, weighted to estimate national numbers to characterize the prevalence of AEs of BPH from 1998 to 2008. We calculated the age-adjusted prevalence of BPH and associated conditions and analyzed prevalence trends with regression modelling. Of 134 million estimated eligible discharges during the study period, 7,464,730 (5.6%) had either a primary or secondary diagnosis of BPH. The age-adjusted prevalence of BPH among all hospitalizations, irrespective of primary diagnosis, increased from 4.3% to 8% (P < 0.001) during the study period. The age-adjusted prevalence of BPH as a primary diagnosis decreased from 0.88% to 0.48% (P < 0.001). Discharges for BPH surgery decreased 51% (odds ratio [OR] 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-0.54, P-trend <0.001) over time. Discharges for primary BPH with acute renal failure increased >400% (OR 4.28, 95% CI 3.22-5.71, P-trend <0.001). There were no significant changes in discharges for primary BPH with urinary retention (P-trend = 0.636), bladder stones (P-trend = 0.117), or urinary infection (P-trend = 0.101) over time. Increased hospitalizations for BPH with acute renal failure and stable hospitalizations for other AEs of BPH indicate that severe AEs of BPH persist despite widespread use of oral therapies in the USA. Further studies are needed to explain these trends. © 2011 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality and in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portugal.

PubMed

Morais, Samantha; Ferro, Ana; Bastos, Ana; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Peleteiro, Bárbara

2016-07-01

Portugal has the highest gastric cancer mortality rates in Western Europe, along with high prevalences of Helicobacter pylori infection. Monitoring their trends is essential to predict the burden of this cancer. We aimed to quantify time trends in gastric cancer mortality in Portugal and in each administrative region, and to compute short-term predictions, as well as to describe the prevalence of H. pylori infection, through a systematic review. Joinpoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in sex-specific trends in gastric cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and to estimate annual percent changes (APC). The most recent trends were considered to compute estimates up to 2020 by adjusting Poisson regression models. We searched PubMed and IndexRMP to identify studies carried out in Portugal reporting the prevalence of H. pylori. Gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since 1971 in men (from ASMR=55.3/100 000; APC=-2.4, 95% confidence interval: -2.5 to -2.3) and since 1970 in women (from ASMR=28.0/100 000; APC=-2.8, 95% confidence interval: -2.9 to -2.7), although large regional differences were observed. Predicted ASMR for 2015 and 2020 were 18.8/100 000 and 16.7/100 000 for men and 8.5/100 000 and 7.4/100 000 for women, respectively. The prevalence of H. pylori varied from almost 5% at 0.5-2 years to just over 90% at 70 years or more. No consistent variation was observed since the 1990s. The downward trends in mortality rates are expected to remain in the next decades. The high prevalence of H. pylori infection across age groups and studies from different periods shows a large potential for decrease in the burden of gastric cancer in Portugal.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repeated Cross-Sectional Assessment of Commercial Truck Driver Health.

PubMed

Thiese, Matthew S; Moffitt, Gary; Hanowski, Richard J; Kales, Stefanos N; Porter, Richard J; Hegmann, Kurt T

2015-09-01

To assess relationships and trends over time in individual conditions and multiple conditions among a large sample of independent, nonoverlapping truck drivers using a repeated cross-sectional study design. Commercial driver medical examinations were conducted on 95,567 commercial drivers between January 1, 2005, and October 31, 2012. Specific medical conditions that have been identified by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Medical Review Board as possibly increasing crash risk were examined. Prevalence and trends over time were analyzed. A total of 8 of the 13 conditions significantly increased from 2005 to 2012. Prevalence of multiple concomitant conditions also increased, with prevalence odds ratios as high as 7.39 (95% confidence interval, 3.92 to 13.98) for four or more conditions in 2012 as compared with 2005. Individual and multiple conditions thought to be associated with increased crash risk significantly increased between 2005 and 2012.

Statistical analyses of the results of 25 years of beach litter surveys on the south-eastern North Sea coast.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Clemens, Thomas; Förster, Harald; Harder, Thorsten; Fleet, David; Gaus, Silvia; Grave, Christel; Flegel, Imme; Schrey, Eckart; Hartwig, Eike

2015-08-01

In the North Sea, the amount of litter present in the marine environment represents a severe environmental problem. In order to assess the magnitude of the problem and measure changes in abundance, the results of two beach litter monitoring programmes were compared and analysed for long-term trends applying multivariate techniques. Total beach litter pollution was persistently high. Spatial differences in litter abundance made it difficult to identify long-term trends: Partly more than 8000 litter items year(-1) were recorded on a 100 m long survey site on the island of Scharhörn, while the survey site on the beach on the island of Amrum revealed abundances lower by two orders of magnitude. Beach litter was dominated by plastic with mean proportions of 52%-91% of total beach litter. Non-parametric time series analyses detected many significant trends, which, however, did not show any systematic spatial patterns. Cluster analyses partly led to groupings of beaches according to their expositions to sources of litter, wind and currents. Surveys in short intervals of one to two weeks were found to give higher annual sums of beach litter than the quarterly surveys of the OSPAR method. Surveys at regular intervals of four weeks to five months would make monitoring results more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2000-01-01

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba.  The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions.  This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends.  U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data.  The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements.  The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge.  A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals.  For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration.  The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96.  Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River.  It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season.  In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

[Alcohol consumption trends among Spanish school-aged adolescents in the first decade of the 21(st) century].

PubMed

Sánchez-Queija, Inmaculada; Moreno, Carmen; Rivera, Francisco; Ramos, Pilar

2015-01-01

To determine trends in beer, wine, and liquor consumption among Spanish adolescents in 2002, 2006, and 2010, as well as drunkenness trends during the same period. The study sample was composed of 23,169 adolescents aged 15 to 18 years old: 7,103 in 2002, 10,443 in 2006 and 5,623 in 2010. In the three time points of the study, the data were representative of Spanish adolescent students. We used the alcohol consumption questionnaire designed by the international team of the Health Behavior in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. We estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals through logistic regressions. The main results showed a decrease in frequent consumption of wine and liquor from 2002 to 2010. This decrease was maintained after controlling for the variability due to the participants' gender and age. However, an increasing trend was found in drunkenness episodes in the different cohorts of the adolescents under study. The results of this study are of particular importance in the analysis of the effects of the public health policies implemented during this time period. We also found changes in consumption patterns of the various alcoholic drinks, which may constitute key information in the design of new public health policies. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Properties of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in the time series of RR intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piskorski, J.; Kosmider, M.; Mieszkowski, D.; Krauze, T.; Wykretowicz, A.; Guzik, P.

2018-02-01

Heart rate asymmetry is a phenomenon by which the accelerations and decelerations of heart rate behave differently, and this difference is consistent and unidirectional, i.e. in most of the analyzed recordings the inequalities have the same directions. So far, it has been established for variance and runs based types of descriptors of RR intervals time series. In this paper we apply the newly developed method of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, which so far has mainly been used with economic time series, to the set of 420 stationary 30 min time series of RR intervals from young, healthy individuals aged between 20 and 40. This asymmetric approach introduces separate scaling exponents for rising and falling trends. We systematically study the presence of asymmetry in both global and local versions of this method. In this study global means "applying to the whole time series" and local means "applying to windows jumping along the recording". It is found that the correlation structure of the fluctuations left over after detrending in physiological time series shows strong asymmetric features in both magnitude, with α+ <α-, where α+ is related to heart rate decelerations and α- to heart rate accelerations, and the proportion of the signal in which the above inequality holds. A very similar effect is observed if asymmetric noise is added to a symmetric self-affine function. No such phenomena are observed in the same physiological data after shuffling or with a group of symmetric synthetic time series.

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

PubMed Central

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-01-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1–2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non–self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends—much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems. PMID:23842090

Temporal trends in the occurrence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients with acute myocardial infarction (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Surveillance Study).

PubMed

Bengtson, Lindsay G S; Chen, Lin Y; Chamberlain, Alanna M; Michos, Erin D; Whitsel, Eric A; Lutsey, Pamela L; Duval, Sue; Rosamond, Wayne D; Alonso, Alvaro

2014-09-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexists in the setting of myocardial infarction (MI), being associated with increased mortality. Nonetheless, temporal trends in the occurrence of AF complicating MI and in the prognosis of these patients are not well described. We examined temporal trends in prevalence of AF in the setting of MI and the effect of AF on prognosis in the community. We studied a population-based sample of 20,049 validated first-incident nonfatal hospitalized MIs among 35- to 74-year old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study from 1987 through 2009. Prevalence of AF in the setting of MI increased from 11% to 15% during the 23-year study period. The multivariable adjusted odds ratio for prevalent AF, per 5-year increment, was 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.19). Overall, in patients with MI, AF was associated with increased 1-year case fatality (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.01) compared with those without AF. However, there was no evidence that the impact of AF on MI survival changed over time or differed over time by sex, race, or MI classification (all p values >0.10). In conclusion, co-occurrence of AF in MI slightly increased between 1987 and 2009. The adverse impact of AF on survival in the setting of MI was consistent throughout. In the setting of MI, co-occurrence of AF should be viewed as a critical clinical event, and treatment needs unique to this population should be explored further. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant V; Shiels, Meredith S; McGlynn, Katherine A; Engels, Eric A

2012-12-15

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a concern among individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The authors analyzed population-based registry linkage data from the US HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study (1980-2009) to examine the risk and trends of HCC among individuals with AIDS. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to measure HCC risk relative to the general population, and Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (RR) comparing incidence among individuals with AIDS. People with AIDS were categorized according to their HIV risk group into high and low hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence groups based on their HIV transmission risk category. Among 615,150 individuals with AIDS, HCC risk was elevated almost 4 times compared with the risk in the general population (N = 366; SIR, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.5-4.3). Although HCC incidence increased steadily across calendar periods (P(trend) < .0001; adjusted for sex and age), the excess risk in individuals with AIDS compared with the general population remained somewhat constant (SIRs range, 3.5-3.9) between the monotherapy/dual therapy era (1990-1995) and the recent highly active antiretroviral therapy era (2001-2009). In a multivariate model adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, and attained calendar period, HCC incidence increased with advancing age (P(trend) < .0001) and was associated with HIV risk groups with a known higher prevalence of HCV (adjusted RR, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.8). HCC incidence in individuals with AIDS has increased over time despite improved HIV treatment regimens, likely reflecting prolonged survival with chronic liver disease. The high incidence in older adults suggests that this cancer will increase in importance with aging of the HIV-infected population. Published 2012 American Cancer Society.

Left Ventricular Isovolumetric Relaxation Time Is Prolonged in Fetal Long-QT Syndrome.

PubMed

Clur, Sally-Ann B; Vink, Arja S; Etheridge, Susan P; Robles de Medina, Pascale G; Rydberg, Annika; Ackerman, Michael J; Wilde, Arthur A; Blom, Nico A; Benson, D Woodrow; Herberg, Ulrike; Donofrio, Mary T; Cuneo, Bettina F

2018-04-01

Long-QT syndrome (LQTS), an inherited cardiac repolarization disorder, is an important cause of fetal and neonatal mortality. Detecting LQTS prenatally is challenging. A fetal heart rate (FHR) less than third percentile for gestational age is specific for LQTS, but the sensitivity is only ≈50%. Left ventricular isovolumetric relaxation time (LVIRT) was evaluated as a potential diagnostic marker for fetal LQTS. LV isovolumetric contraction time, LV ejection time, LVIRT, cycle length, and FHR were measured using pulsed Doppler waveforms in fetuses. Time intervals were expressed as percentages of cycle length, and the LV myocardial performance index was calculated. Single measurements were stratified by gestational age and compared between LQTS fetuses and controls. Receiver-operator curves were performed for FHR and normalized LVIRT (N-LVIRT). A linear mixed-effect model including multiple measurements was used to analyze trends in FHR, N-LVIRT, and LV myocardial performance index. There were 33 LQTS fetuses and 469 controls included. In LQTS fetuses, the LVIRT was prolonged in all gestational age groups ( P <0.001), as was the N-LVIRT. The best cutoff to diagnose LQTS was N-LVIRT ≥11.3 at ≤20 weeks (92% sensitivity, 70% specificity). Simultaneous analysis of N-LVIRT and FHR improved the sensitivity and specificity for LQTS (area under the curve=0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.00 at 21-30 weeks). N-LVIRT, LV myocardial performance index, and FHR trends differed significantly between LQTS fetuses and controls through gestation. The LVIRT is prolonged in LQTS fetuses. Findings of a prolonged N-LVIRT and sinus bradycardia can improve the prenatal detection of fetal LQTS. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Analysis of a trial assessing the long-term effectiveness of salicylic acid plasters compared with scalpel debridement in facilitating corn resolution in patients with multiple corns.

PubMed

Stephenson, John; Farndon, Lisa; Concannon, Michael

2016-06-01

This study assesses the effect of salicylic acid plasters on the time to resolution of 324 corns experienced by 201 participants taking part in a randomized controlled trial. While the rate of corn resolution was substantively higher in the treatment group than in the control group, treatment was found to be not significantly related to time to corn recurrence when analyzed over the full 12-month follow-up period. Parametric survival analysis modeling of interval-censored data and incorporating patient-specific frailty terms was utilized, to model correlation of corns within patients (hazard ratio [HR], 1.189; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.780-1.813; P = 0.422). Median resolution times were 10.0 months for corns in the treatment group and 13.4 months for corns in the control group. Controlling for treatment, corn type was found to be related to resolution time, with dorsal/interdigital (ID) corns showing better resolution than plantar corns (HR, 1.670; 95% CI, 1.061-2.630; P = 0.027). Median resolution times were 5.9 months for dorsal/ID corns and 14.9 months for plantar corns. Secondary measures relating to quality of life (QoL) and foot-related disability, using the EQ-5D questionnaire and the Manchester Foot Pain and Disability Index (MFPDI), were also assessed at the patient level in multivariate models. Treatment was not significantly related to any of these measures over the whole period of analysis. However, a trend analysis revealed a quadratic trend in QoL and MFPDI scores, arising from a substantive initial improvement between baseline and 3 months, followed by a gradual decrease between 3 and 12 months. © 2015 Japanese Dermatological Association.

An Examination of the Intonation Tendencies of Wind Instrumentalists Based on Their Performance of Selected Harmonic Musical Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karrick, Brant

1998-01-01

Studies intonation trends of wind instrumentalists with regard to harmonic intervals, including factors such as tuning system, location, interval type, direction of deviation from equal temperament, and group. Compares the performance of two groups, professionals and advanced students. Reports findings and discusses similarities to and differences…

Spatial and temporal trends in fin whale vocalizations recorded in the NE Pacific Ocean between 2003-2013

PubMed Central

Weirathmueller, Michelle J.; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Wilcock, William S. D.; Hilmo, Rose S.; Dziak, Robert P.; Tréhu, Anne M.

2017-01-01

In order to study the long-term stability of fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) singing behavior, the frequency and inter-pulse interval of fin whale 20 Hz vocalizations were observed over 10 years from 2003–2013 from bottom mounted hydrophones and seismometers in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The instrument locations extended from 40°N to 48°N and 130°W to 125°W with water depths ranging from 1500–4000 m. The inter-pulse interval (IPI) of fin whale song sequences was observed to increase at a rate of 0.54 seconds/year over the decade of observation. During the same time period, peak frequency decreased at a rate of 0.17 Hz/year. Two primary call patterns were observed. During the earlier years, the more commonly observed pattern had a single frequency and single IPI. In later years, a doublet pattern emerged, with two dominant frequencies and IPIs. Many call sequences in the intervening years appeared to represent a transitional state between the two patterns. The overall trend was consistent across the entire geographical span, although some regional differences exist. Understanding changes in acoustic behavior over long time periods is needed to help establish whether acoustic characteristics can be used to help determine population identity in a widely distributed, difficult to study species such as the fin whale. PMID:29073230

Spatial and temporal trends in fin whale vocalizations recorded in the NE Pacific Ocean between 2003-2013.

PubMed

Weirathmueller, Michelle J; Stafford, Kathleen M; Wilcock, William S D; Hilmo, Rose S; Dziak, Robert P; Tréhu, Anne M

2017-01-01

In order to study the long-term stability of fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) singing behavior, the frequency and inter-pulse interval of fin whale 20 Hz vocalizations were observed over 10 years from 2003-2013 from bottom mounted hydrophones and seismometers in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The instrument locations extended from 40°N to 48°N and 130°W to 125°W with water depths ranging from 1500-4000 m. The inter-pulse interval (IPI) of fin whale song sequences was observed to increase at a rate of 0.54 seconds/year over the decade of observation. During the same time period, peak frequency decreased at a rate of 0.17 Hz/year. Two primary call patterns were observed. During the earlier years, the more commonly observed pattern had a single frequency and single IPI. In later years, a doublet pattern emerged, with two dominant frequencies and IPIs. Many call sequences in the intervening years appeared to represent a transitional state between the two patterns. The overall trend was consistent across the entire geographical span, although some regional differences exist. Understanding changes in acoustic behavior over long time periods is needed to help establish whether acoustic characteristics can be used to help determine population identity in a widely distributed, difficult to study species such as the fin whale.

Stride-to-stride variability and complexity between novice and experienced runners during a prolonged run at anaerobic threshold speed.

PubMed

Mo, Shiwei; Chow, Daniel H K

2018-05-19

Motor control, related to running performance and running related injuries, is affected by progression of fatigue during a prolonged run. Distance runners are usually recommended to train at or slightly above anaerobic threshold (AT) speed for improving performance. However, running at AT speed may result in accelerated fatigue. It is not clear how one adapts running gait pattern during a prolonged run at AT speed and if there are differences between runners with different training experience. To compare characteristics of stride-to-stride variability and complexity during a prolonged run at AT speed between novice runners (NR) and experienced runners (ER). Both NR (n = 17) and ER (n = 17) performed a treadmill run for 31 min at his/her AT speed. Stride interval dynamics was obtained throughout the run with the middle 30 min equally divided into six time intervals (denoted as T1, T2, T3, T4, T5 and T6). Mean, coefficient of variation (CV) and scaling exponent alpha of stride intervals were calculated for each interval of each group. This study revealed mean stride interval significantly increased with running time in a non-linear trend (p<0.001). The stride interval variability (CV) maintained relatively constant for NR (p = 0.22) and changed nonlinearly for ER (p = 0.023) throughout the run. Alpha was significantly different between groups at T2, T5 and T6, and nonlinearly changed with running time for both groups with slight differences. These findings provided insights into how the motor control system adapts to progression of fatigue and evidences that long-term training enhances motor control. Although both ER and NR could regulate gait complexity to maintain AT speed throughout the prolonged run, ER also regulated stride interval variability to achieve the goal. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

PubMed

Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

2016-01-01

Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where persons at risk for work disability can be identified and early preventive measures initiated.

Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

2016-01-01

Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967–1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26–1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967–1976. In conclusion, health problems—in particular mental problems—during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where persons at risk for work disability can be identified and early preventive measures initiated. PMID:27533052

Burial and thermal history of the Paradox Basin, Utah and Colorado, and petroleum potential of the Middle Pennsylvanian Paradox Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nuccio, Vito F.; Condon, Steven M.

1996-01-01

The Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle of the Alkali Gulch interval of the Middle Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation in the Paradox Basin of Utah and Colorado contain excellent organic-rich source rocks having total organic carbon contents ranging from 0.5 to 11.0 percent. The source rocks in both intervals contain types I, II, and III organic matter and are potential source rocks for both oil and gas. Organic matter in the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle of the Alkali Gulch interval (hereinafter referred to in this report as the ?Cane Creek cycle?) probably is more terrestrial in origin in the eastern part of the basin and is interpreted to have contributed to some of the gas produced there. Thermal maturity increases from southwest to northeast for both the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle, following structural and burial trends throughout the basin. In the northernmost part of the basin, the combination of a relatively thick Tertiary sedimentary sequence and high basinal heat flow has produced very high thermal maturities. Although general thermal maturity trends are similar for both the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle, actual maturity levels are higher for the Cane Creek due to the additional thickness (as much as several thousand feet) of Middle Pennsylvanian section. Throughout most of the basin, the Ismay?Desert Creek interval is mature and in the petroleum-generation window (0.10 to 0.50 production index (PI)), and both oil and gas are produced; in the south-central to southwestern part of the basin, however, the interval is marginally mature (0.10 PI) in the central part of the basin and is overmature (past the petroleum-generation window (>0.50 PI)) throughout most of the eastern part of the basin. The Cane Creek cycle generally produces oil and associated gas throughout the western and central parts of the basin and thermogenic gas in the eastern part of the basin. Burial and thermal-history models were constructed for six different areas of the Paradox Basin. In the Monument upwarp area, the least mature part of the basin, the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle have thermal maturities of 0.10 and 0.20 PI and were buried to 13,400 ft and 14,300 ft, respectively. A constant heat flow through time of 40 mWm?2 (milliwatts per square meter) is postulated for this area. Significant petroleum generation began at 45 Ma for the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and at 69 Ma for the Cane Creek cycle. In the area around the confluence of the Green and Colorado Rivers, the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle have thermal maturities of 0.20 and 0.25 PI and were buried to 13,000 ft and 14,200 ft, respectively. A constant heat flow through time of 42 mWm?2 is postulated for this area. Significant petroleum generation began at 60 Ma for the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and at 75 Ma for the Cane Creek cycle. In the area around the town of Green River, Utah, the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle have thermal maturities of 0.60 and greater and were buried to 14,000 ft and 15,400 ft, respectively. A constant heat flow through time of 53 mWm?2 is proposed for this area. Significant petroleum generation began at 82 Ma for the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and at 85 Ma for the Cane Creek cycle. Around Moab, Utah, in the deeper, eastern part of the basin, the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and Cane Creek cycle have thermal maturities of 0.30 and around 0.35 PI and were buried to 18,250 ft and 22,000 ft, respectively. A constant heat flow through time of 40 mWm?2 is postulated for this area. Significant petroleum generation began at 79 Ma for the Ismay?Desert Creek interval and at 90 Ma for the Cane Creek cycle. At Lisbon Valley, also in the structurally deeper part of the basin, the Ismay?

Twenty-eight-year review of childhood renal diseases from renal biopsy data: A single centre in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Mengjie; Xiao, Zizheng; Rong, Liping; Xu, Yuanyuan; Chen, Lizhi; Mo, Ying; Sun, Liangzhong; Sun, Wei; Jiang, Xiaoyun

2016-12-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinicopathologic characteristics of biopsy-proven childhood renal diseases and to compare the trends and changes during two different time intervals between 1984 and 2011 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in China. We retrospectively analyzed kidney biopsy data from children with renal diseases and compared the data during two time intervals, namely 1984-1997 and 1998-2011. A total of 1313 children were enrolled in the present study. There were 921 children with primary glomerular disease (PGD) and 312 children with secondary glomerular disease (SGD), accounting for 70.1% and 23.8% of participants, respectively. The major clinical manifestation of PGD was nephrotic syndrome (NS), which accounted for 31.2% of cases, while the main aetiology of SGD was lupus nephritis (40.7%). The main biopsy patterns of PGD were IgA nephritis (27.6%), minimal change disease (24.0%), and mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (16.9%). PGD was the major class of disease in both time intervals, but the ratio of PGD decreased over time, while the ratio of SGD and other glomerular diseases increased. PGD was also the major class of disease in each age group; however, the incidence of PGD decreased with increasing age. The incidence patterns of paediatric renal diseases changed over the 28-year period of this study. Our results show that different renal diseases characterize different age intervals. Furthermore, there are several associations between clinical presentation and biopsy features in childhood renal disease. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Investigation of kinetics and absorption isotherm models for hydroponic phytoremediation of waters contaminated with sulfate.

PubMed

Saber, Ali; Tafazzoli, Milad; Mortazavian, Soroosh; James, David E

2018-02-01

Two common wetland plants, Pampas Grass (Cortaderia selloana) and Lucky Bamboo (Dracaena sanderiana), were used in hydroponic cultivation systems for the treatment of simulated high-sulfate wastewaters. Plants in initial experiments at pH 7.0 removed sulfate more efficiently compared to the same experimental conditions at pH 6.0. Results at sulfate concentrations of 50, 200, 300, 600, 900, 1200, 1500 and 3000 mg/L during three consecutive 7-day treatment periods with 1-day rest intervals, showed decreasing trends of both removal efficiencies and uptake rates with increasing sulfate concentrations from the first to the second to the third 7-day treatment periods. Removed sulfate masses per unit dry plant mass, calculated after 23 days, showed highest removal capacity at 600 mg/L sulfate for both plants. A Langmuir-type isotherm best described sulfate uptake capacity of both plants. Kinetic studies showed that compared to pseudo first-order kinetics, pseudo-second order kinetic models slightly better described sulfate uptake rates by both plants. The Elovich kinetic model showed faster rates of attaining equilibrium at low sulfate concentrations for both plants. The dimensionless Elovich model showed that about 80% of sulfate uptake occurred during the first four days' contact time. Application of three 4-day contact times with 2-day rest intervals at high sulfate concentrations resulted in slightly higher uptakes compared to three 7-day contact times with 1-day rest intervals, indicating that pilot-plant scale treatment systems could be sized with shorter contact times and longer rest-intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relaxation of the one child policy and trends in caesarean section rates and birth outcomes in China between 2012 and 2016: observational study of nearly seven million health facility births

PubMed Central

Liang, Juan; Mu, Yi; Li, Xiaohong; Tang, Wen; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Zheng; Huang, Xiaona; Scherpbier, Robert W; Guo, Sufang; Li, Mingrong; Dai, Li; Deng, Kui; Deng, Changfei; Li, Qi; Kang, Leni; Zhu, Jun

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China. Design Observational study. Setting China’s National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS). Participants 6 838 582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight ≥1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016. Main outcome measures Obstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time. Results Caesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government’s policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time. Conclusions China is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China’s success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China’s experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter. PMID:29506980

Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

PubMed

Hyslop, Nicole P; Trzepla, Krystyna; White, Warren H

2015-08-04

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).

Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Soares-Miranda, Luisa; Sattelmair, Jacob; Chaves, Paulo; Duncan, Glen; Siscovick, David S; Stein, Phyllis K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background Cardiac mortality and electrophysiologic dysfunction both increase with age. Heart rate variability (HRV) provides indices of autonomic function and electrophysiology that are associated with cardiac risk. How habitual physical activity (PA) among older adults prospectively relates to HRV, including nonlinear indices of erratic sinus patterns, is not established. We hypothesized that increasing levels of both total leisure-time activity and walking would be prospectively associated with more favorable time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV measures in older adults. Methods and Results We evaluated serial longitudinal measures of both PA and 24-hour Holter HRV over 5 years among 985 older US adults in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study. After multivariable adjustment, greater total leisure-time activity, walking distance, and walking pace were each prospectively associated with specific, more favorable HRV indices, including higher 24-hour standard-deviation-of-all-normal-to-normal-intervals (SDNN, p-trend=0.009, 0.02, 0.06, respectively) and ultra-low-frequency-power (p-trend=0.02, 0.008, 0.16, respectively). Greater walking pace was also associated with higher short-term-fractal-scaling-exponent (p-trend=0.003) and lower Poincare ratio (p-trend=0.02), markers of less erratic sinus patterns. Conclusions Greater total leisure-time activity, as well as walking alone, were prospectively associated with more favorable and specific indices of autonomic function in older adults, including several suggestive of more normal circadian fluctuations and less erratic sinoatrial firing. Our results suggest potential mechanisms that might contribute to lower cardiovascular mortality with habitual PA later in life. PMID:24799513

Patterns in Patient Access and Utilization of Online Medical Records: Analysis of MyChart

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Electronic patient portals provide a new method for sharing personal medical information with individual patients. Objective Our aim was to review utilization patterns of the largest online patient portal in Canada's largest city. Methods We conducted a 4-year time-trend analysis of aggregated anonymous utilization data of the MyChart patient portal at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2015. Prespecified analyses examined trends related to day (weekend vs weekday), season (July vs January), year (2012 vs 2015), and an extreme adverse weather event (ice storm of December 20-26, 2013). Primary endpoints included three measures of patient portal activity: registrations, logins, and pageviews. Results We identified 32,325 patients who registered for a MyChart account during the study interval. Time-trend analysis showed no sign of attenuating registrations over time. Logins were frequent, averaged 734 total per day, and showed an increasing trend over time. Pageviews mirrored logins, averaged about 3029 total per day, and equated to about 5 pageviews during the average login. The most popular pageviews were clinical notes, followed by laboratory results and medical imaging reports. All measures of patient activity were lower on weekends compared to weekdays (P<.001) yet showed no significant changes related to seasons or extreme weather. No major security breach, malware attack, or software failure occurred during the study. Conclusions Online patient portals can provide a popular and reliable system for distributing personal medical information to active patients and may merit consideration for hospitals. PMID:29410386

Space Radiation Induced Cytogenetic Damage in the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts: Persistence of Damage After Flight and the Effects of Repeat Long Duration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Kerry; Rhone, Jordan; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2010-01-01

Cytogenetic damage was assessed in blood lymphocytes from astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more. The frequency of chromosome damage was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting before flight and at various intervals from a few days to many months after return from the mission. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome exchanges measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield. However, some individuals showed a temporal decline in chromosome damage with time after flight. Statistical analysis using combined data for all astronauts indicated a significant overall decreasing trend in total chromosome exchanges with time after flight, although this trend was not seen for all astronauts and the yield of chromosome damage in some individuals actually increased with time after flight. The decreasing trend in total exchanges was slightly more significant when statistical analysis was restricted to data collected more than 220 days after return from flight. In addition, limited data on multiple flights show a lack of correlation between time in space and translocation yields. Data from three crewmembers who has participated in two separate long-duration space missions provide limited information on the effect of repeat flights and show a possible adaptive response to space radiation exposure.

Borehole Volumetric Strainmeters Detect Very Long-period Ocean Level Changes in Tokai Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takanami, T.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, S. I.; Kitagawa, G.; Hirata, N.; Rydelek, P. A.

2015-12-01

We detected a clear very long-period strain signal with a predominant period of about 2 months in the data from Sacks-Evertson borehole volumetric strainmeters. These have been operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) since 1976 in Tokai area, Japan, the area of an expected Tokai eartquake. Earth's surface is always influenced by natural force such as earth tide, air pressure, and precipitation as well as by human induced sources. In order to decompose into their components in the maximum likelihood estimation, state-space modeling (Takanami et al., 2013) is applied to the observed time series data for 15 months before and after the earthquake M6.5 that occurred on 11th August 2009 in Suruga Bay. In the analysis, the strain data are decomposed into trend, air pressure, earth tide, precipitation effects and observation noise. Clear long-period strain signals are seen in the normalized trend component time series. Time series data from JMA tide gages around Suruga Bay are similarly decomposed. Then spectral analyses are applied to the trend components for the same time interval. Comparison of amplitude peaks in spectra for both data sets show all have a peak at period of about 1464 hours. Thus strain changes may be influenced by very long-period ocean level changes; it is necessary to consider this possibility before attributing tectonic significance to such variations.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Kidney Disease Progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chonchol, Michel; Gitomer, Berenice; Isakova, Tamara; Cai, Xuan; Salusky, Isidro; Pereira, Renata; Abebe, Kaleab; Torres, Vicente; Steinman, Theodor I; Grantham, Jared J; Chapman, Arlene B; Schrier, Robert W; Wolf, Myles

2017-09-07

Increases in fibroblast growth factor 23 precede kidney function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease; however, the role of fibroblast growth factor 23 in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease has not been well characterized. We measured intact fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in baseline serum samples from 1002 participants in the HALT-PKD Study A ( n =540; mean eGFR =91±17 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and B ( n =462; mean eGFR =48±12 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We used linear mixed and Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 and eGFR decline, percentage change in height-adjusted total kidney volume, and composite of time to 50% reduction in eGFR, onset of ESRD, or death. Median (interquartile range) intact fibroblast growth factor 23 was 44 (33-56) pg/ml in HALT-PKD Study A and 69 (50-93) pg/ml in Study B. In adjusted models, annualized eGFR decline was significantly faster in the upper fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile (Study A: quartile 4, -3.62; 95% confidence interval, -4.12 to -3.12 versus quartile 1, -2.51; 95% confidence interval, -2.71 to -2.30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001; Study B: quartile 4, -3.74; 95% confidence interval, -4.14 to -3.34 versus quartile 1, -2.78; 95% confidence interval, -2.92 to -2.63 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001). In Study A, higher fibroblast growth factor 23 quartiles were associated with greater longitudinal percentage increase in height-adjusted total kidney volume in adjusted models (quartile 4, 6.76; 95% confidence interval, 5.57 to 7.96 versus quartile 1, 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 5.55 to 6.54; P for trend =0.03). In Study B, compared with the lowest quartile, the highest fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile was associated with elevated risk for the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 5.25). Addition of fibroblast growth factor 23 to a model of annualized decline in eGFR≥3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 did not improve risk prediction. Higher serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was associated with kidney function decline, height-adjusted total kidney volume percentage increase, and death in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. However, fibroblast growth factor 23 did not substantially improve prediction of rapid kidney function decline. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Is the virulence of HIV changing? A meta-analysis of trends in prognostic markers of HIV disease progression and transmission

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Müller, Viktor; Maust, Brandon S.; Ledergerber, Bruno; Torti, Carlo; Di Giambenedetto, Simona; Gras, Luuk; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Mullins, James I.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.

2013-01-01

Objective The potential for changing HIV-1 virulence has significant implications for the AIDS epidemic, including changing HIV transmission rates, rapidity of disease progression, and timing of ART. Published data to date have provided conflicting results. Design We conducted a meta-analysis of changes in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts and set point plasma viral RNA load over time in order to establish whether summary trends are consistent with changing HIV-1 virulence. Methods We searched PubMed for studies of trends in HIV-1 prognostic markers of disease progression and supplemented findings with publications referenced in epidemiological or virulence studies. We identified 12 studies of trends in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts (21 052 total individuals), and eight studies of trends in set point viral loads (10 785 total individuals), spanning the years 1984–2010. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated summary effect sizes for trends in HIV-1 plasma viral loads and CD4+ T-cell counts. Results Baseline CD4+ T-cell counts showed a summary trend of decreasing cell counts [effect=−4.93 cells/µl per year, 95% confidence interval (CI) −6.53 to −3.3]. Set point viral loads showed a summary trend of increasing plasma viral RNA loads (effect=0.013 log10 copies/ml per year, 95% CI −0.001 to 0.03). The trend rates decelerated in recent years for both prognostic markers. Conclusion Our results are consistent with increased virulence of HIV-1 over the course of the epidemic. Extrapolating over the 30 years since the first description of AIDS, this represents a CD4+ T cells loss of approximately 148 cells/µl and a gain of 0.39 log10 copies/ml of viral RNA measured during early infection. These effect sizes would predict increasing rates of disease progression, and need for ART as well as increasing transmission risk. PMID:22089381

[Age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items: mega-data from a Japanese Health Service Association].

PubMed

Suka, Machi; Yoshida, Katsumi; Kawai, Tadashi; Aoki, Yoshikazu; Yamane, Noriyuki; Yamauchi, Kuniaki

2005-07-01

To determine age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items in Japanese adults. Health examination data were accumulated from 24 different prefectural health service associations affiliated with the Japan Association of Health Service. Those who were non-smokers, drank less than 7 days/week, and had a body mass index of 18.5-24.9kg/m2 were sampled as a reference population (n = 737,538; 224,947 men and 512,591 women). After classified by age and sex, reference intervals for 10 health examination items (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, uric acid, AST, ALT, gamma-GT, and hemoglobin) were estimated using the parametric and nonparametric methods. In every item except for hemoglobin, men had higher reference intervals than women. Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glucose showed an upward trend in values with increasing age. Hemoglobin showed a downward trend in values with increasing age. Triglyceride, ALT, and gamma-GT reached a peak in middle age. Overall, parametric estimates showed narrower reference intervals than non-parametric estimates. Reference intervals vary with age and sex. Age- and sex-specific reference intervals may contribute to better assessment of health examination data.

Citation Analysis and Trends in review articles in dentistry.

PubMed

Muniz, Francisco Wilker Mustafa Gomes; Celeste, Roger Keller; Oballe, Harry Juan Rivera; Rösing, Cassiano Kuchenbecker

2018-06-01

This study aimed to describe the trends in dentistry article reviews as well as to compare citation patterns between systematic and narrative reviews. A search strategy was developed, in Scopus database, in order to identify all narrative and systematic reviews published between 2000 and 2015. Original research studies, letters to the editor, editorials, book chapters, and case reports were excluded. From the list of studies available, 30 reviews per year were randomly chosen. The review type, year of publication, number of authors, country of the first author, open access, language, main topic of interest, journal's H index, number of references, and number of citations were extracted by 2 researchers. The number of citations was extracted from the Scopus database. Multivariable regression analysis was used in order to detect the association between citation rate and the independent variables. Overall, 118 and 362 systematic and narrative reviews were included in this study. Throughout the years, the number of systematic reviews has increased from 5.8% to 53.3%. However, the mean number of citations has significantly decreased, and this is affected by the review's year of publication. A trend for lower citation in systematic reviews (Relative risk [RR]: 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.84) has been demonstrated; however, the number of citations of narrative reviews has been increasing over the years (RR: 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.21). From 2000 to 2015, the number of systematic reviews increased substantially. On the other hand, a trend for lower citations of these studies has been observed that is affected over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost trend analysis of initial cancer treatment in Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Tsai-Yun; Hsieh, Jan-Sing; Lee, King-Teh; Hou, Ming-Feng; Wu, Chia-Ling; Kao, Hao-Yun; Shi, Hon-Yi

2014-01-01

Despite the high cost of initial cancer care, that is, care in the first year after diagnosis, limited information is available for specific categories of cancer-related costs, especially costs for specific services. This study purposed to identify causes of change in cancer treatment costs over time and to perform trend analyses of the percentage of cancer patients who had received a specific treatment type and the mean cost of care for patients who had received that treatment. The analysis of trends in initial treatment costs focused on cancer-related surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and treatments other than active treatments. For each cancer-specific trend, slopes were calculated for regression models with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses of patients diagnosed in 2007 showed that the National Health Insurance (NHI) system paid, on average, $10,780 for initial care of a gastric cancer patient and $10,681 for initial care of a lung cancer patient, which were inflation-adjusted increases of $6,234 and $5,522, respectively, over the 1996 care costs. During the same interval, the mean NHI payment for initial care for the five specific cancers increased significantly (p<0.05). Hospitalization costs comprised the largest portion of payments for all cancers. During 1996-2007, the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy significantly increased in all cancer types (p<0.05). In 2007, NHI payments for initial care for these five cancers exceeded $12 billion, and gastric and lung cancers accounted for the largest share. In addition to the growing number of NHI beneficiaries with cancer, treatment costs and the percentage of patients who undergo treatment are growing. Therefore, the NHI must accurately predict the economic burden of new chemotherapy agents and radiation therapies and may need to develop programs for stratifying patients according to their potential benefit from these expensive treatments.

Twenty-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed anogenital warts in Canada.

PubMed

Kliewer, Erich V; Demers, Alain A; Elliott, Lawrence; Lotocki, Robert; Butler, James R G; Brisson, Marc

2009-06-01

A vaccine has recently been licensed in many countries that protects against the human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16, and 18. Types 6 and 11 account for approximately 90% of anogenital warts (AGWs). We describe the 20-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of AGWs in Manitoba, Canada. We used linked population-based hospital and physician databases for Manitoba for 1984 to 2004. Cases were identified using tariff (billing) and ICD codes. A case was considered to be incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval free period of AGWs care. Otherwise, it was deemed to be prevalent. An episode was considered over once a 12-month interval had elapsed without an AGW claim. Approximately 25,000 Manitobans were diagnosed with AGWs between 1985 and 2004. The annual age-standardized incidence rates peaked in 1992 (men, 149.9/100,000; women 170.8/100,000). In recent years, the rates have been increasing again, particularly for men. The male:female incidence rate ratio increased from 0.76 in 1985 to 1.25 in 2004. The highest incidence rate tended to be in those aged 20 to 24 years. Trends in prevalence were similar. Prevalence in 2004 was 165.2/100,000 for men and 128.4/100,000 for women. These population-based findings suggest that AGWs are a substantial burden to Manitobans and that their pattern has changed over time, with incidence and prevalence becoming higher in men than women. Monitoring the future trends in AGWs will provide an early marker of the effectiveness and duration of protection of human papillomavirus vaccination at a population level.

Effect of supplemental oxygen on post-exercise inflammatory response and oxidative stress.

PubMed

White, Jodii; Dawson, Brian; Landers, Grant; Croft, Kevin; Peeling, Peter

2013-04-01

This investigation explored the influence of supplemental oxygen administered during the recovery periods of an interval-based running session on the post-exercise markers of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inflammation. Ten well-trained male endurance athletes completed two sessions of 10 × 3 min running intervals at 85 % of the maximal oxygen consumption velocity (vVO(2)peak) on a motorised treadmill. A 90-s recovery period was given between each interval, during which time the participants were administered either a hyperoxic (HYP) (Fraction of Inspired Oxygen (FIO2) 99.5 %) or normoxic (NORM) (FIO2 21 %) gas, in a randomized, single-blind fashion. Pulse oximetry (SpO(2)), heart rate (HR), blood lactate (BLa), perceived exertion (RPE), and perceived recovery (TQRper) were recorded during each trial. Venous blood samples were taken pre-exercise, post-exercise and 1 h post-exercise to measure Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Isoprostanes (F2-IsoP). The S(p)O(2) was significantly lower than baseline following all interval repetitions in both experimental trials (p < 0.05). The S(p)O(2) recovery time was significantly quicker in the HYP when compared to the NORM (p < 0.05), with a trend for improved perceptual recovery. The IL-6 and F2-IsoP were significantly elevated immediately post-exercise, but had significantly decreased by 1 h post-exercise in both trials (p < 0.05). There were no differences in IL-6 or F2-IsoP levels between trials. Supplemental oxygen provided during the recovery periods of interval based exercise improves the recovery time of SPO(2) but has no effect on post-exercise ROS or inflammatory responses.

Editorial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

The two articles in this issue of the European Physical Journal Special Topics cover topics in Econophysics and GPU computing in the last years. In the first article [1], the formation of market prices for financial assets is described which can be understood as superposition of individual actions of market participants, in which they provide cumulative supply and demand. This concept of macroscopic properties emerging from microscopic interactions among the various subcomponents of the overall system is also well-known in statistical physics. The distribution of price changes in financial markets is clearly non-Gaussian leading to distinct features of the price process, such as scaling behavior, non-trivial correlation functions and clustered volatility. This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Hydrocarbon reservoirs of Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, P.K.

1988-01-01

The statistical distribution of over 12,000 producible hydrocarbon reservoirs from various biostratigraphic intervals of the Gulf of Mexico is presented. The average number, thickness, volume, subsurface depth, and ecozone of depositional environments of the reservoirs are grouped according to biostratigraphic intervals, trends, and geographic areas. The upper Pliocene and Pleistocene reservoirs account for more than 77% of the total number. Within the Miocene trend, Bigenerina H in the western Gulf of Bigenerina A and Bigenerina 2 in the central Gulf show significant concentration of reservoirs. The average depth of production for all trends gets deeper, both from west and east,more » toward Ship Shoal-South Timbalier areas. The average thickness varies slightly between trends; however, variation between areas is more significant. A significant majority of the reservoirs of all trends in the entire Gulf is reported from the outer shelf-upper slope ecozones (E3 and E4). According to volume, the E3-E5 reservoirs can be classified into three groups; larger than 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, 5,000 to 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, and smaller than 5,000 acre-ft/reservoir.« less

A review of national health surveys in India

PubMed Central

Pandey, Anamika; Dandona, Lalit

2016-01-01

Abstract Several rounds of national health surveys have generated a vast amount of data in India since 1992. We describe and compare the key health information gathered, assess the availability of health data in the public domain, and review publications resulting from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the District Level Household Survey (DLHS) and the Annual Health Survey (AHS). We highlight issues that need attention to improve the usefulness of the surveys in monitoring changing trends in India’s disease burden: (i) inadequate coverage of noncommunicable diseases, injuries and some major communicable diseases; (ii) modest comparability between surveys on the key themes of child and maternal mortality and immunization to understand trends over time; (iii) short time intervals between the most recent survey rounds; and (iv) delays in making individual-level data available for analysis in the public domain. We identified 337 publications using NFHS data, in contrast only 48 and three publications were using data from the DLHS and AHS respectively. As national surveys are resource-intensive, it would be prudent to maximize their benefits. We suggest that India plan for a single major national health survey at five-year intervals in consultation with key stakeholders. This could cover additional major causes of the disease burden and their risk factors, as well as causes of death and adult mortality rate estimation. If done in a standardized manner, such a survey would provide useable and timely data to inform health interventions and facilitate assessment of their impact on population health. PMID:27034522

Robots drive the German radical prostatectomy market: a total population analysis from 2006 to 2013.

PubMed

Groeben, C; Koch, R; Baunacke, M; Wirth, M P; Huber, J

2016-12-01

To assess trends in the distribution of patients for radical prostatectomy in Germany from 2006 to 2013 and the impact of robotic surgery on annual caseloads. We hypothesized that the advent of robotics and the establishment of certified prostate cancer centers caused centralization in the German radical prostatectomy market. Using remote data processing we analyzed the nationwide German billing data from 2006 to 2013. We supplemented this database with additional hospital characteristics like the prostate cancer center certification status. Inclusion criteria were a prostate cancer diagnosis combined with radical prostatectomy. Hospitals with certification or a surgical robot in 2009 were defined as 'early' group. Linear covariant-analytic models were applied to describe trends over time. Annual radical prostatectomy numbers declined from 28 374 (2006) to 21 850 (2013). High-volume hospitals (⩾100 cases) decreased from 87 (22.0%) in 2006 to 43 (10.4%) in 2013. Low-volume hospitals (<50 cases) increased from 193 (48.7%) to 280 (67.4%). Mean radical prostatectomy caseloads of hospitals with early vs without certification declined from 155 to 130 vs 77 to 39 (P=0.021 for trend comparison). Early robotic hospitals maintained their volume >200 cases per year contrary to the overall trend (P<0.001 for trend comparison). A multivariate model for caseload numbers of 2013 indicated a robotic system to be the most important factor for higher caseloads (multiplication factor 7.3; 95% confidence interval: 6.6-8.0). A prostate cancer center certification (multiplication factor 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.50-1.59) had a much smaller impact. We found decentralization of radical prostatectomy in Germany. The driving force for this development might consist in the overall decline of radical prostatectomy numbers. The most important factor for achieving higher caseloads was the presence of a robotic system. In order to optimize outcomes of radical prostatectomy additional health policy measures might be necessary.

Switching Phenomena in a System with No Switches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

2010-02-01

It is widely believed that switching phenomena require switches, but this is actually not true. For an intriguing variety of switching phenomena in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. For example, financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("financial collapse"). Such switching occurs on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for a few seconds. We analyze a database containing 13,991,275 German DAX Future transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10 msec. For comparison, a database providing 2,592,531 of all S&P500 daily closing prices is used. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching phenomena have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have properties similar to those of phase transitions. We suggest that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales—such as the most recent financial crisis—are no outliers but single dramatic representatives caused by the switching between upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from very large (≈102 days) down to very small (≈10 ms).

Urinary and dietary analysis of 18,470 bangladeshis reveal a correlation of rice consumption with arsenic exposure and toxicity.

PubMed

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water.

A Coral-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Salinity at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu from 2007 to 1843 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorman, M. K.; Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Dunn, E. M.; Cabioch, G.; Ballu, V.; Maes, C.; Austin, J. A.; Saustrup, S.; Pelletier, B.

2011-12-01

We present a reconstruction of sea surface salinity (SSS) derived from a coral δ18O time series extending from 2007-1843 CE at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (SBV, 166.04° E, 15.94°S). This reconstruction is significant because instrumental records of SSS are rare in time and space, yet the SSS response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is large in many regions of the tropical oceans. There is a strong positive relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region; canonical ENSO signal) and six month lagged sea surface salinity anomalies (SSSA, data from Delcroix et al., 2011) at SBV, which establishes a dynamical link between surface ocean variability at SBV and ENSO variability. We calculate a coral δ18O anomaly time series and note that there is a strong correlation between it and instrumental SSS variations over the period 1970-2007 (r = 0.70, p < 0.01). We compute a linear transfer function that we use to predict SSS variations given observed coral δ18O variations. A calibration-verification exercise conducted over two intervals (1970-1987, 1988-2007) resulted in similar correlations between instrumental and reconstructed SSS for both time periods, which provides confidence in our SSS reconstructions in the pre-1970 interval. We further test our SBV transfer function by applying it to a previously published coral δ18O record from Malo Channel, Vanuatu (Kilbourne et al., 2004b), located 130 km to the east of Sabine Bank. The reconstructed SSS time series from the two locations over their common time interval (1991-1939 CE) are nearly always the same within error, indicating that the ENSO-influenced salinity signal is regional in extent, and can be reconstructed using coral δ18O records from Vanuatu. We observe high salinity excursions (>0.5 psu) pre-1970 corresponding to strong ENSO warm phase events recorded in the SST instrumental record and historical ENSO record (i.e. 1941-42, 1918-19, 1877-78), and an overall freshening trend, demonstrating the ability of our reconstructed dataset to capture interannual variability as well as long-term trends in SSS at Vanuatu.

Assessment of atrial electromechanical interval using echocardiography after catheter ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaodong; Chen, Minglong; Wang, Yingying; Yang, Bing; Ju, Weizhu; Zhang, Fengxiang; Cao, Kejiang

2016-01-01

Abstract We sought to investigate variation of atrial electromechanical interval after catheter ablation procedure in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation using pulse Doppler (PW) and pulse tissue Doppler imaging (PW-TDI). A total of 25 consecutive in-patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, who restored sinus rhythm after ablation procedure, were recruited in our cardiac center. Echocardiography was performed on each patient at 2 hours, 1 day, 5 days, 1 month and 3 months after the ablation therapy, and atrial electromechanical delay was measured simultaneously by PW and PW-TDI. There was no significant difference between PW and TDI in measuring atrial electromechanical delay. However, at postoperative 2 hours, peak A detection rates were mathematically but nonsignificantly greater by PW-TDI than by PW. Second, there was a significant decreasing trend in atrial electromechanical interval from postoperative 2 hours to 3 months, but only postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval was significantly greater than atrial electromechanical interval at other time. Lastly, patients without postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval had a significantly longer duration of atrial fibrillation as compared to those with postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval, by the PW or by PW-TDI, respectively. In patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, atrial electromechanical interval may decrease significantly within the first 24 hours after ablation but remain consistent later, and was significantly related to patients’ duration of atrial fibrillation. Atrial electromechanical interval, as a potential predicted factor, is recommended to be measured by either PW or TDI after 24 hours, when patients had recovered sinus rhythm by radiofrequency ablation. PMID:27924066

Epidemiological data on US coal miners' pneumoconiosis, 1960 to 1988.

PubMed

Attfield, M D; Castellan, R M

1992-07-01

Statistics on prevalence of pneumoconiosis among working underground coal miners based on epidemiologic data collected between 1960 and 1988 are presented. The main intent was to examine the time-related trend in prevalence, particularly after 1969, when substantially lower dust levels were mandated by federal act. Data from studies undertaken between 1960 and 1968 were collected and compared. Information for the period 1969 to 1988 was extracted from a large ongoing national epidemiologic study. Tenure-specific prevalence rates and summary statistics derived from the latter data for four consecutive time intervals within the 19-year period were calculated and compared. The results indicate a reduction in pneumoconiosis over time. The trend is similar to that seen in a large radiologic surveillance program of underground miners operated concurrently. Although such factors as x-ray reader variation, changes in x-ray standards, and worker self-selection for examination may have influenced the findings to some extent, adjusted summary rates reveal a reduction in prevalence concurrent with reductions in coal mine dust levels mandated by federal act in 1969.

The scaling law of climate change and its relevance to assessing (palaeo)biological responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiessling, Wolfgang; Eichenseer, Kilian

2014-05-01

It is often argued that current rates of climate change are unprecedented in the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of change were often much greater in deep time than they are in history. The most severe global warming in the Phanerozoic, with dramatic consequences for life, probably occurred across the Permian-Triassic (P-T) boundary when an increase of tropical water temperatures of 15° C has been observed to occur over a timespan 0.8 myr (Sun et al. 2012), whereas global ocean warming over the last 50 years was 0.35° C (Burrows et al. 2011). When transforming these data into rates of change the P-T rate was roughly 370 times smaller than the current rate. We argue that the smaller rates of change inferred from geological proxy records are due to a scaling effect, that is, rates of climate change generally decrease with timespan of observation. We compiled from the published literature data on measured or inferred temperature changes and the timespans over which these changes were assessed. Our compilation currently comprises 120 values and covers timespans from 20 to 107 years. A log-log plot of timespan versus rate of temperature change depicts a highly significant correlation (r2 = 0.95) of a power-law relationship with an exponent of -0.87. Warming trends show a slightly lower exponent (-0.84) than cooling trends (-0.89) but the explained variance is better for the scaling of warming trends. Importantly, the scaled warming trend across the P-T boundary is higher than the current rates of warming. Similar scaling effects are well explored for sediment accumulation rates (Sadler 1981) and evolutionary rates (Gingerich 1993). These have been interpreted as being due to breaks in sedimentation and periods of stasis or transient reversals, respectively. In case of climate change, transient reversals in general trends are the most likely explanation for the scaling relationship. Even relatively rapid intervals of warming, such as the Pleistocene interglacials, are not monotonic, but punctuated by short-term cooling intervals. The fossil record tells us that biodiversity responded dramatically to ancient intervals of climate warming. We can now see that the apparently slower rates of change in some mass extinctions (Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic) were greater than today when the scaling law is considered. This reassures us that studying deep time patterns of organismic response to climate change is a worthwhile endeavor that is relevant for predicting the future. References Burrows, M. T., Schoeman, D. S., Buckley, L. B., Moore, P., Poloczanska, E. S., Brander, K. M., Brown, C., Bruno, J. F., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Holding, J., Kappel, C. V., Kiessling, W., O'Connor, M. I., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F. B., Sydeman, W. J., and Richardson, A. J.: The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 334, 652-655, 2011. Gingerich, P. D.: Quantification and comparison of evolutionary rates, American Journal of Science, 293A, 453-478, 1993. Sadler, P. M.: Sediment accumulation rates and the completeness of stratigraphic sections, Journal of Geology, 89, 569-584, 1981. Sun, Y., Joachimski, M. M., Wignall, P. B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., and Lai, X.: Lethally hot temperatures during the Early Triassic greenhouse, Science, 338, 366-370, 2012.

The Kepler Light Curves of V1504 Cygni and V344 Lyrae: A Study of the Outburst Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cannizzo, John K.; Smale, Alan P.; Still, Martin D.; Wood, Matt A.; Howell, Steve B.

2011-01-01

We examine the Kepler light curves of V1504 Cyg and V344 Lyr, encompassing approximately 460 d at 1 min cadence. During this span each system exhibited approximately 40 outbursts, including four superoutbursts. We find that, in both systems, the normal outbursts lying between two superoutbursts increase in duration by a factor approximately 1.2 - 1.7, and then reset to a small value after the following superoutburst. In V344 Lyr the trend of quiescent intervals between normal outbursts is to increase to a local maximum about half way through the supercycle the interval from one superoutburst to the next - and then to decrease back to a small value by the time of the next superoutburst, whereas for V1504 Cyg the quiescent intervals are relatively constant during the supercycle. Both of these trends are inconsistent with the Osaki's thermal-tidal model, which robustly predicts a secular increase in the quiescent intervals between normal outbursts during a supercycle. Also, most of the normal outbursts have an asymmetric, fast-rise/slower-decline shape, which would be consistent with outbursts triggered at large radii. The exponential rate of decay of the plateau phase of the superoutbursts is 8 d mag(sup -1) for approximately 1504 Cyg and 12 d mag(sup -1) for V344 Lyr. This time scale gives a direct measure of the VISCOUS time scale III the outer accretion disk given the expectation that the entire disk is in the hot, viscous state during superoutburst. The resulting constraint on the Shakura-Sunyaev parameter, alpha(sub hot) approximately equal to 0.1, is consistent with the value inferred from the fast dwarf nova decays. By looking at the slow decay rate for superoutbursts, which occur in systems below the period gap, in combination with the slow decay rate in one long outburst above the period gap (in U Gem), we infer a steep dependence of the decay rate on orbital period for long outbursts. We argue that this relation implies a steep dependence of alpha(sub cold) on orbital period, which may be consistent with recent findings of Patterson, and is consistent with tidal torquing as being the dominant angular momentum transport mechanism in quiescent disks in interacting binary systems.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s rs=0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss. PMID:24046155

Energetic Trend in Explosive Activity of Stromboli

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltelli, M.; Cristaldi, A.; Mangiagli, S.; Nunnari, G.; Pecora, E.

2003-12-01

The typical activity of Stromboli consists of intermittent mild explosions lasting a few seconds, which take place at different vents and at variable intervals, the most common time interval being 10-20 minutes. However, the routine activity can be interrupted by more violent, paroxysmal explosions, that eject m-sized scoriaceous bombs and lava blocks to a distance of several hundreds of meters from the craters, endangering the numerous tourists that watch the spectacular activity from the volcano's summit located about two hundreds meters from the active vents. On average, 1-2 paroxysmal explosions occurred per year over the past century, but this statistic may be underestimated in absence of continuous monitoring. For this reason from summer 1996 a remote surveillance camera works on Stromboli recording continuously the volcanic activity. It is located on Pizzo Sopra la Fossa, 100 metres above the crater terrace where are the active vents. Using image analysis we seeks to identify any change of the explosive activity trend that could precede a particular eruptive event, like paroxysmal explosions, fire fountains, lava flows. The analysis include the counting of the explosions occurred at the different craters and the parameterization in classes of intensity for each explosion on the base of tephra dispersion and kinetics energy. Associating at each class a corresponding Index of energy in order to compute an heuristic value of the Average Daily Energy Released (ADER) of the explosive activity at Stromboli and plotting this value for each crater versus time, the diagram shows a cyclic behavior with max and min of explosive activity ranging from a few days to a month. Often the craters show opposite trends so when the activity decreases in a crater, increases in the other. Before every paroxysmal explosions recorded, the crater that produced the event decreased and then stopped its activity from a few days to weeks before. The other crater tried to compensate increasing its activity and when it declined the paroxysmal explosion occurred suddenly at the former site. From September 2001 an on-line image analyzer called VAMOS (Volcanic Activity MOnitoring System) operates detection and classification of explosive events in real-time. The system has automatically recorded and analyzed the change in the energetic trend that preceded the 20 October 2001 paroxysmal explosion that killed a woman and the strong explosive activity that preceded the onset of 28 December 2002 lava flow eruption.

Patterns in Patient Access and Utilization of Online Medical Records: Analysis of MyChart.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Kraus, Nicole C

2018-02-06

Electronic patient portals provide a new method for sharing personal medical information with individual patients. Our aim was to review utilization patterns of the largest online patient portal in Canada's largest city. We conducted a 4-year time-trend analysis of aggregated anonymous utilization data of the MyChart patient portal at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2015. Prespecified analyses examined trends related to day (weekend vs weekday), season (July vs January), year (2012 vs 2015), and an extreme adverse weather event (ice storm of December 20-26, 2013). Primary endpoints included three measures of patient portal activity: registrations, logins, and pageviews. We identified 32,325 patients who registered for a MyChart account during the study interval. Time-trend analysis showed no sign of attenuating registrations over time. Logins were frequent, averaged 734 total per day, and showed an increasing trend over time. Pageviews mirrored logins, averaged about 3029 total per day, and equated to about 5 pageviews during the average login. The most popular pageviews were clinical notes, followed by laboratory results and medical imaging reports. All measures of patient activity were lower on weekends compared to weekdays (P<.001) yet showed no significant changes related to seasons or extreme weather. No major security breach, malware attack, or software failure occurred during the study. Online patient portals can provide a popular and reliable system for distributing personal medical information to active patients and may merit consideration for hospitals. ©Donald A Redelmeier, Nicole C Kraus. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.02.2018.

A Detailed Study of the Delacroix Island Major Fault and Its Role on Stratigraphic Horizons from the Middle Miocene to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levesh, J. L.; McLindon, C.; Kulp, M. A.

2017-12-01

An in-depth field study of the Delacroix Island producing field illustrates the evolution of the main East-West trending Delacroix Island fault over the last thirteen million years. Well log correlation and 3-D seismic interpretation of eighteen bio-stratigraphic horizons across the fault reveal a range of stratigraphic thicknesses. A cross section, created with wells upthrown and downthrown to the fault, visually demonstrates varying degrees of thickening and displacement of the stratigraphic intervals across the fault. One upthrown and one downthrown well, with well log curve data up to 30 meters below the surface, were used to calculate interval thicknesses between the main tops as well as five more Pliocene/Pleistocene biostratigraphic markers. Isopach maps, created with these interval thicknesses, depict two styles of interval thickening both of which indicate differential subsidence across the fault. An interval thickness analysis was plotted in both depth and time as well as plots showing the rate of sediment accumulation and depth versus fault displacement. A lineation on the marsh surface consistent with a projection of the fault plane suggests that the fault movement has been episodically continuous to the present and that recent movement may have played a role in submerging the downthrown side of the surface fault trace.

Computer assisted thermal-vacuum testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrie, W.; Mikk, G.

1977-01-01

In testing complex systems and components under dynamic thermal-vacuum environments, it is desirable to optimize the environment control sequence in order to reduce test duration and cost. This paper describes an approach where a computer is utilized as part of the test control operation. Real time test data is made available to the computer through time-sharing terminals at appropriate time intervals. A mathematical model of the test article and environmental control equipment is then operated on using the real time data to yield current thermal status, temperature analysis, trend prediction and recommended thermal control setting changes to arrive at the required thermal condition. The data acquisition interface and the time-sharing hook-up to an IBM-370 computer is described along with a typical control program and data demonstrating its use.

Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

PubMed

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

2010-10-01

In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

Suicide in Greece 1992-2012: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Papaslanis, Theodoros; Kontaxakis, Vassilis; Christodoulou, Christos; Konstantakopoulos, George; Kontaxaki, Maria-Irini; Papadimitriou, George N

2016-08-01

Since 2008, Greece has entered a long period of economic crisis with adverse effects on various aspects of daily life. In this frame, it is quite important to examine the suicide trends in Greece. Our analysis covered the period 1992-2012. 2012 was the last year for which official suicide data were available. The inclusion of data for pre-crisis period enabled us to assess trends in suicide preceding the economic crisis, starting in 2008. Trends in sex- and age-adjusted standardized suicide rates (SSR) were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Total SSR presented statistically significant annual decrease of 0.89% (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.7, -0.1) during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, the trend in total SSR increased statistically significant annual increase (12.48%; 95% CI: 0.3%, 26.1%). SSR in males presented an initial period of modest annual decrease (-0.84%; 95% CI: -1.6%, -0.1%), during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, an annual increase by 9.25% (95% CI: 2.7%, 16.3%) was revealed. No change in female SSR trend was observed during the studied period. According to the results of this study, there is clear evidence of an increase in the overall SSR and male SSR in Greece during the period of the current financial crisis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Sensitization to Formaldehyde in Northeastern Italy, 1996 to 2012.

PubMed

Prodi, Andrea; Rui, Francesca; Belloni Fortina, Anna; Corradin, Maria Teresa; Larese Filon, Francesca

2016-01-01

Formaldehyde is a widely used organic compound, used in several applications (hard thermoset resins, adhesives, disinfectants, tissue fixatives, etc), in its free form or released by formaldehyde releaser products. Its use is under control due to its toxic, carcinogenic, and allergenic properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of formaldehyde sensitization, time trend, and correlation to occupations. This study is a cross-sectional study on a population of 23,774 patients tested from 1996 to 2012 in Northeastern Italy. Frequency of sensitization was 3.3%, without any significant time trend. Hands (39.8% overall) and face (25.6% females, 15.5% males) were mainly involved. We found a trend toward decrease by age in females (3.11% in first quintile [14-26 years], 2.29% in fifth quintile [59-97 years], P < 0.01). On a logistic regression analysis (control group: white-collar workers), we found associations in health care (odds ratio [OR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.81), wood (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.30-3.51), and textile (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.14-2.79) sectors and professional drivers (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.05-3.60). We found a high rate of cosensitization to formaldehyde in patients with positive patch test reactions to quaternium-15 (OR, 18.7; 95% CI, 12.6-27.7). Sensitization to formaldehyde is relevant in our population, especially in the health care sector, wood and textile industries, and professional drivers. No significant time trend was found.

40-year trends in meal and snack eating behaviors of American adults.

PubMed

Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

2015-01-01

Understanding changes in profiles of eating behaviors over time may provide insights into contributors to upward trajectories of obesity in the US population. Yet little is known about whether or not characteristics of meal and snack eating behaviors reported by adult Americans have changed over time. To examine time trends in the distribution of day's intake into individual meal and snack behaviors and related attributes in the US adult population. The study was observational with cross-sectional data from national surveys fielded over 40 years. Nationally representative dietary data from nine National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted from 1971-1974 to 2009-2010 (N=62,298 participants aged 20-74 years) were used to describe eating behaviors. The respondent-labeled eating behaviors examined included main meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), and snacks (before breakfast, between breakfast and lunch, between lunch and dinner, after dinner, or other). For each eating behavior, percent of reporters, relative contribution to 24-hour energy intake, the clock time of report, and intermeal/snack intervals were examined. Multivariable logistic and linear regression methods for analysis of complex survey data adjusted for characteristics of respondents in each survey. Over the 40-year span examined reports of each individual named main meal (or all three main meals) declined, but reports of only two out of three meals or the same meal more than once increased; the percentage of 24-hour energy from snacks reported between lunch and dinner or snacks that displaced meals increased; clock times of breakfast and lunch were later, and intervals between dinner and after-dinner snack were shorter. Changes in several snack reporting behaviors (eg, report of any snack or ≥2 snacks), were significant in women only. Several meal and snack eating behaviors of American adults changed over time, with a greater change in snack behaviors of women relative to men. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

40-year trends in meal and snack eating behaviors of American adults

PubMed Central

Kant, Ashima K.; Graubard, Barry I.

2014-01-01

Background Understanding of changes in profiles of eating behaviors over time may provide insights into contributors to upward trajectories of obesity in the United States population. Yet, little is known about whether characteristics of meal and snack eating behaviors reported by adult Americans have changed over time. Objective This study examined time trends in the distribution of day’s intake into individual meal and snack behaviors and related attributes in the United States adult population. Design The study was observational with cross-sectional data from national surveys fielded over 40 years. Participant/setting Nationally representative dietary data from nine National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted from 1971–74 to 2009–2010 (n=62298; age 20–74 years) were used to describe eating behaviors. Outcomes examined The respondent-labeled eating behaviors examined included main meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), and snacks (before breakfast, between breakfast and lunch, between lunch and dinner, after dinner, or other). For each eating behavior, percent of reporters; relative contribution to 24-hour energy intake; the clock time of report; and intermeal/snack intervals were examined. Statistical Analysis Multivariable logistic and linear regression methods for analysis of complex survey data adjusted for characteristics of respondents in each survey. Results Over the 40-year span examined: 1) reports of each individual named main meal (or all three main meals) declined, but reports of only two out of three meals or the same meal more than once increased; 2) the percentage of 24-hour energy from snacks reported between lunch and dinner or snacks that displaced meals increased; 3) clock times of breakfast and lunch were later, and intervals between dinner and after dinner snack were shorter. Changes in several snack reporting behaviors (e.g., report of any snack or ≥2 snacks), were significant in women only. Conclusions Several meal and snack eating behaviors of American adults changed over time, with a greater change in snack behaviors of women relative to men. PMID:25088521

Random local temporal structure of category fluency responses.

PubMed

Meyer, David J; Messer, Jason; Singh, Tanya; Thomas, Peter J; Woyczynski, Wojbor A; Kaye, Jeffrey; Lerner, Alan J

2012-04-01

The Category Fluency Test (CFT) provides a sensitive measurement of cognitive capabilities in humans related to retrieval from semantic memory. In particular, it is widely used to assess progress of cognitive impairment in patients with dementia. Previous research shows that, in the first approximation, the intensity of tested individuals' responses within a standard 60-s test period decays exponentially with time, with faster decay rates for more cognitively impaired patients. Such decay rate can then be viewed as a global (macro) diagnostic parameter of each test. In the present paper we focus on the statistical properties of the properly de-trended time intervals between consecutive responses (inter-call times) in the Category Fluency Test. In a sense, those properties reflect the local (micro) structure of the response generation process. We find that a good approximation for the distribution of the de-trended inter-call times is provided by the Weibull Distribution, a probability distribution that appears naturally in this context as a distribution of a minimum of independent random quantities and is the standard tool in industrial reliability theory. This insight leads us to a new interpretation of the concept of "navigating a semantic space" via patient responses.

Integrated stratigraphy and astronomical tuning of Smirra cores, lower Eocene, Umbria-Marche basin, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauretano, Vittoria; Turtù, Antonio; Hilgen, Frits; Galeotti, Simone; Catanzariti, Rita; Reichart, Gert Jan; Lourens, Lucas J.

2016-04-01

The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of increase global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system. During this time interval, the Earth's surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of sustained high temperatures called the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). These perturbations of the ocean-atmosphere system involved the global carbon cycle and global temperatures and have been linked to orbital forcing. Unravelling this complex climatic system strictly depends on the availability of high-quality suitable geological records and accurate age models. However, discrepancies between the astrochronological and radioisotopic dating techniques complicate the development of a robust time scale for the early Eocene (49-54 Ma). Here we present the first magneto-, bio-, chemo- and cyclostratigraphic results of the drilling of the land-based Smirra section, in the Umbria Marche Basin. The sediments recovered at Smirra provide a remarkably well-preserved and undisturbed succession of the early Palaeogene pelagic stratigraphy. Bulk stable carbon isotope and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) scanning records are employed in the construction of an astronomically tuned age model for the time interval between ~49 and ~54 Ma based on the tuning to long-eccentricity. These results are then compared to the astronomical tuning of the benthic carbon isotope record of ODP Site 1263 to evaluate the different age model options and improve the time scale of the early Eocene by assessing the precise number of eccentricity-related cycles comprised in this critical interval.

Relaxation of the one child policy and trends in caesarean section rates and birth outcomes in China between 2012 and 2016: observational study of nearly seven million health facility births.

PubMed

Liang, Juan; Mu, Yi; Li, Xiaohong; Tang, Wen; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Zheng; Huang, Xiaona; Scherpbier, Robert W; Guo, Sufang; Li, Mingrong; Dai, Li; Deng, Kui; Deng, Changfei; Li, Qi; Kang, Leni; Zhu, Jun; Ronsmans, Carine

2018-03-05

To examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China. Observational study. China's National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS). 6 838 582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight ≥1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016. Obstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time. Caesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government's policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time. China is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China's success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China's experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities in life expectancy, reversing a previously increasing trend. Since the strategy ended, inequalities have started to increase again. The strategy may have reduced geographical health inequalities in life expectancy, and future approaches should learn from this experience. The concerns are that current policies are reversing the achievements of the strategy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Evaluating Protocol Lifecycle Time Intervals in HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Schouten, Jeffrey T.; Dixon, Dennis; Varghese, Suresh; Cope, Marie T.; Marci, Joe; Kagan, Jonathan M.

2014-01-01

Background Identifying efficacious interventions for the prevention and treatment of human diseases depends on the efficient development and implementation of controlled clinical trials. Essential to reducing the time and burden of completing the clinical trial lifecycle is determining which aspects take the longest, delay other stages, and may lead to better resource utilization without diminishing scientific quality, safety, or the protection of human subjects. Purpose In this study we modeled time-to-event data to explore relationships between clinical trial protocol development and implementation times, as well as identify potential correlates of prolonged development and implementation. Methods We obtained time interval and participant accrual data from 111 interventional clinical trials initiated between 2006 and 2011 by NIH’s HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials Networks. We determined the time (in days) required to complete defined phases of clinical trial protocol development and implementation. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to assess the rates at which protocols reached specified terminal events, stratified by study purpose (therapeutic, prevention) and phase group (pilot/phase I, phase II, and phase III/ IV). We also examined several potential correlates to prolonged development and implementation intervals. Results Even though phase grouping did not determine development or implementation times of either therapeutic or prevention studies, overall we observed wide variation in protocol development times. Moreover, we detected a trend toward phase III/IV therapeutic protocols exhibiting longer developmental (median 2 ½ years) and implementation times (>3years). We also found that protocols exceeding the median number of days for completing the development interval had significantly longer implementation. Limitations The use of a relatively small set of protocols may have limited our ability to detect differences across phase groupings. Some timing effects present for a specific study phase may have been masked by combining protocols into phase groupings. Presence of informative censoring, such as withdrawal of some protocols from development if they began showing signs of lost interest among investigators, complicates interpretation of Kaplan-Meier estimates. Because this study constitutes a retrospective examination over an extended period of time, it does not allow for the precise identification of relative factors impacting timing. Conclusions Delays not only increase the time and cost to complete clinical trials, but they also diminish their usefulness by failing to answer research questions in time. We believe that research analyzing the time spent traversing defined intervals across the clinical trial protocol development and implementation continuum can stimulate business process analyses and reengineering efforts that could lead to reductions in the time from clinical trial concept to results, thereby accelerating progress in clinical research. PMID:24980279

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Tobacco-Free Pharmacy Laws and Trends in Tobacco Retailer Density in California and Massachusetts.

PubMed

Jin, Yue; Lu, Bo; Klein, Elizabeth G; Berman, Micah; Foraker, Randi E; Ferketich, Amy K

2016-04-01

To examine the impact of local laws prohibiting tobacco sales in pharmacies in California and Massachusetts, the only 2 US states in which such municipal laws exist. We analyzed longitudinally the tobacco retailer density at the city level from tobacco retailer license data in California (2005-2013) and Massachusetts (2004-2014). After adjustments, the reduction in tobacco retailer density over time was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 1.51) to 3.18 (95% CI = 1.11, 5.25) times greater in cities with a tobacco-free pharmacy law than in cities without such a law. Tobacco-free pharmacy laws are associated with a greater reduction in tobacco retailer density over time in California and Massachusetts.

Sedentary lifestyle and emergence of hopelessness in middle-aged men.

PubMed

Valtonen, Maarit; Laaksonen, David E; Laukkanen, Jari; Tolmunen, Tommi; Rauramaa, Rainer; Viinamäki, Heimo; Mursu, Jaakko; Savonen, Kai; Lakka, Timo A; Niskanen, Leo; Kauhanen, Jussi

2010-10-01

A sedentary lifestyle and psychosocial factors such as hopelessness and depression increase cardiovascular risk. Cross-sectional evidence suggests positive effects of physical exercise on psychological well being, but the time order of the relationship between physical activity and hopelessness has not been addressed. Population-based prospective cohort study with 630 middle-aged men participating in the 4-year follow-up and 509 men in the 11-year follow-up. We investigated the association of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with the development of hopelessness during the follow-up. LTPA and hopelessness were quantified with questionnaires. In cross-sectional analyses, LTPA was inversely associated with hopelessness, independently of depression. Among men who did not have feelings of hopelessness at baseline, those who reported engaging in at least 2.5 h/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity had a lower risk (odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-1.09, P for the trend=0.047) to feel hopeless than sedentary men 4 years later after adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, this relationship was not explained by body mass index or maximal oxygen uptake. Adjustment for depressive symptoms slightly weakened the association (odds ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-1.11, P for the trend=0.060). After 11 years, men who reported being physically active at baseline were still less likely to feel hopeless, after adjusting for age. However, after further adjustment for other confounding factors the association was no longer significant. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity seems to prevent development of hopelessness in middle-aged men. This protective effect may diminish over time.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Attendance at Religious Services, Prayer, Religious Coping, and Religious/Spiritual Identity as Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in the Black Women's Health Study.

PubMed

VanderWeele, Tyler J; Yu, Jeffrey; Cozier, Yvette C; Wise, Lauren; Argentieri, M Austin; Rosenberg, Lynn; Palmer, Julie R; Shields, Alexandra E

2017-04-01

Previous longitudinal studies have consistently shown an association between attendance at religious services and lower all-cause mortality, but the literature on associations between other measures of religion and spirituality (R/S) and mortality is limited. We followed 36,613 respondents from the Black Women's Health Study from 2005 through December 31, 2013 to assess the associations between R/S and incident all-cause mortality using proportional hazards models. After control for numerous demographic and health covariates, together with other R/S variables, attending religious services several times per week was associated with a substantially lower mortality rate ratio (mortality rate ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.51, 0.80) relative to never attending services. Engaging in prayer several times per day was not associated with mortality after control for demographic and health covariates, but the association trended towards a higher mortality rate ratio when control was made for other R/S variables (for >2 times/day vs. weekly or less, mortality rate ratio = 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.67; P-trend < 0.01). Religious coping and self-identification as a very religious/spiritual person were associated with lower mortality when adjustment was made only for age, but the association was attenuated when control was made for demographic and health covariates and was almost entirely eliminated when control was made for other R/S variables. The results indicate that service attendance was the strongest R/S predictor of mortality in this cohort. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of atrial electromechanical interval using echocardiography after catheter ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaodong; Chen, Minglong; Wang, Yingying; Yang, Bing; Ju, Weizhu; Zhang, Fengxiang; Cao, Kejiang

2016-11-01

We sought to investigate variation of atrial electromechanical interval after catheter ablation procedure in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation using pulse Doppler (PW) and pulse tissue Doppler imaging (PW-TDI). A total of 25 consecutive in-patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, who restored sinus rhythm after ablation procedure, were recruited in our cardiac center. Echocardiography was performed on each patient at 2 hours, 1 day, 5 days, 1 month and 3 months after the ablation therapy, and atrial electromechanical delay was measured simultaneously by PW and PW-TDI. There was no significant difference between PW and TDI in measuring atrial electromechanical delay. However, at postoperative 2 hours, peak A detection rates were mathematically but nonsignificantly greater by PW-TDI than by PW. Second, there was a significant decreasing trend in atrial electromechanical interval from postoperative 2 hours to 3 months, but only postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval was significantly greater than atrial electromechanical interval at other time. Lastly, patients without postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval had a significantly longer duration of atrial fibrillation as compared to those with postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval, by the PW or by PW-TDI, respectively. In patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, atrial electromechanical interval may decrease significantly within the first 24 hours after ablation but remain consistent later, and was significantly related to patients' duration of atrial fibrillation. Atrial electromechanical interval, as a potential predicted factor, is recommended to be measured by either PW or TDI after 24 hours, when patients had recovered sinus rhythm by radiofrequency ablation. © 2016 by the Journal of Biomedical Research. All rights reserved.

Trends in coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram findings from 1977 to 2009 with 10-year mortality in Japanese elderly males - The Tanushimaru Study.

PubMed

Nakamura, Sachiko; Adachi, Hisashi; Enomoto, Mika; Fukami, Ako; Kumagai, Eita; Nohara, Yume; Kono, Shoko; Nakao, Erika; Sakaue, Akiko; Tsuru, Tomoko; Morikawa, Nagisa; Fukumoto, Yoshihiro

2017-10-01

An understanding of the trends in regard to coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram (ECG) findings has an important role in public health. We investigated the trends in coronary risk factors and main ECG findings in 1977, 1989, 1999, and 2009 in the Japanese cohort of the Seven Countries Study, in Tanushimaru, a typical farming town on Kyushu Island. A total of 1397 subjects (231 in 1977, 332 in 1989, 389 in 1999, and 445 in 2009) were enrolled in this study, and all of them were males aged over 65 years. In coronary risk factors, total cholesterol levels, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and uric acid significantly increased during these 3 decades. The prevalence of smokers markedly decreased from 56.7% in 1977 to 16.8% in 2009. ECG changes during 3 decades were wider QRS interval, increased prevalence of major abnormality, reduced heart rate, shortened PR interval and corrected QT, and decreased prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy. Age, smoking habits, major and minor abnormalities in ECG were associated with mortality in 1977-1987. Age, total cholesterol levels (inversely) and corrected QT were associated with mortality in 1989-1999. Age, smoking habits, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure were associated with mortality in 1999-2009. Predictors of mortality have changed with the times. Coronary risk factors such as smoking, increased heart rate, and elevated blood pressure have been recently associated with mortalities in elderly male Japanese general population. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

PubMed

Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

2011-09-01

Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

Urinary and Dietary Analysis of 18,470 Bangladeshis Reveal a Correlation of Rice Consumption with Arsenic Exposure and Toxicity

PubMed Central

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N.; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I.; Graziano, Joseph H.; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

Background We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). Methods General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Results Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. Conclusions This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water. PMID:24260455

Implementing the measurement interval midpoint method for change estimation

Treesearch

James A. Westfall; Thomas Frieswyk; Douglas M. Griffith

2009-01-01

The adoption of nationally consistent estimation procedures for the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program mandates changes in the methods used to develop resource trend information. Particularly, it is prescribed that changes in tree status occur at the midpoint of the measurement interval to minimize potential bias. The individual-tree characteristics requiring...

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Analysis on the overpressure characterization with respect to depositional environment facies: Case Study in Miri Area, Baram Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mhd Hanapiah, N.; Yusoff, W. I. Wan; Zakariah, M. N. A.

2017-10-01

Overpressure studies in oil and gas exploration and production are carried out in order to mitigate any losses that could happen while drilling. These concerns can be addressed by enhancing the understanding of overpressure characterization in the fields. This research emphasizes in determining the pore pressure trend in Miri area to assist pore pressure prediction for future hydrocarbon exploration and production. Generally, pore pressure trends are related to mechanisms that contribute to the overpressure generation. In the region predominant overpressure are disequilibrium compaction within the prodelta shales meanwhile in outer shelf overpressure generation controlled by fluid expansion in deltaic sequence of inner shelf area. The objective of this research is to analyze the pore pressure profile of wells for determining vertical trends of pore pressure for various depositional environment facies of Miri area. Integration of rock physics and pore pressure analysis and relating the trends to environment depositional environment facies within shale underlying sand interval. Analysis done shows that overpressure top is characterize by depositional environment facies within shale underlying sand interval.

Antarctic ozone loss in 1989-2010: evidence for ozone recovery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Lefèvre, F.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Roscoe, H. K.; Goutail, F.; Pazmiño, A.; Shanklin, J. D.

2012-04-01

We present a detailed estimation of chemical ozone loss in the Antarctic polar vortex from 1989 to 2010. The analyses include ozone loss estimates for 12 Antarctic ground-based (GB) stations. All GB observations show minimum ozone in the late September-early October period. Among the stations, the lowest minimum ozone values are observed at South Pole and the highest at Dumont d'Urville. The ozone loss starts by mid-June at the vortex edge and then progresses towards the vortex core with time. The loss intensifies in August-September, peaks by the end of September-early October, and recovers thereafter. The average ozone loss in the Antarctic is revealed to be about 33-50% in 1989-1992 in agreement with the increase in halogens during this period, and then stayed at around 48% due to saturation of the loss. The ozone loss in the warmer winters (e.g. 2002, and 2004) is lower (37-46%) and in the colder winters (e.g. 2003, and 2006) is higher (52-55%). Because of small inter-annual variability, the correlation between ozone loss and the volume of polar stratospheric clouds yields ~0.51. The GB ozone and ozone loss values are in good agreement with those found from the space-based observations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TOMS/OMI), the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), where the differences are within ±5% and are mostly within the error bars of the measurements. The piece-wise linear trends computed from the September-November vortex average GB and TOMS/OMI ozone show about -4 to -5.6 DU (Dobson Unit) yr-1 in 1989-1996 and about +1 DU yr-1 in 1997-2010. The trend during the former period is significant at 95% confidence intervals, but the trend in 1997-2010 is significant only at 85% confidence intervals. Our analyses suggest a period of about 9-10 yr to get the first detectable ozone recovery signal at the 95% confidence intervals with the current ozone trends in the Antarctic. Thus, this study reveals that the recovery of the Antarctic ozone is well on course.

Exercise in pregnancy: an association with placental weight?

PubMed

Hilde, Gunvor; Eskild, Anne; Owe, Katrine Mari; Bø, Kari; Bjelland, Elisabeth K

2017-02-01

Women with high levels of physical exercise have an increased demand for oxygen and nutrients. Thus, in pregnancies of women with high levels of exercise, it is conceivable that the supply of oxygen and nutrients to the placenta is suboptimal, and growth could be impaired. The objective was to study the association of frequency of exercise during pregnancy with placental weight and placental to birthweight ratio. This was a prospective study of 80,515 singleton pregnancies in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Frequency of exercise was self-reported by a questionnaire at pregnancy weeks 17 and 30. Information on placental weight and birthweight was obtained by linkage to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Placental weight decreased with increasing frequency of exercise (tests for trend, P < .001). For nonexercisers in pregnancy week 17, the crude mean placental weight was 686.1 g compared with 667.3 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 18.8 g; 95% confidence interval, 12.0-25.5). Likewise, in nonexercisers in pregnancy week 30, crude mean placental weight was 684.9 g compared with 661.6 g in women exercising ≥6 times weekly (difference, 23.3 g; 95% confidence interval, 14.9-31.6). The largest difference in crude mean placental weight was seen between nonexercisers at both time points and women exercising ≥6 times weekly at both time points (difference, 31.7 g; 95% confidence interval, 19.2-44.2). Frequency of exercise was not associated with placental to birthweight ratio. We found decreasing placental weight with increasing frequency of exercise in pregnancy. The difference in placental weight between nonexercisers and women with exercising ≥6 times weekly was small and may have no clinical implications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.

A Long-Term Dissipation of the EUV He ii (30.4 nm) Segmentation in Full-Disk Solar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didkovsky, Leonid

2018-06-01

Some quiet-Sun days observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during the time interval in 2010 - 2017 were used to continue our previous analyses reported by Didkovsky and Gurman ( Solar Phys. 289, 153, 2014a) and Didkovsky, Wieman, and Korogodina ( Solar Phys. 292, 32, 2017). The analysis consists of determining and comparing spatial spectral ratios (spectral densities over some time interval) from spatial (segmentation-cell length) power spectra. The ratios were compared using modeled compatible spatial frequencies for spectra from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and from AIA images. With the new AIA data added to the EIT data we analyzed previously, the whole time interval from 1996 to 2017 reported here is approximately the length of two "standard" solar cycles (SC). The spectral ratios of segmentation-cell dimension structures show a significant and steady increase with no detected indication of SC-related returns to the values that characterize the SC minima. This increase in spatial power at high spatial frequencies is interpreted as a dissipation of medium-size EUV network structures to smaller-size structures in the transition region. Each of the latest ratio changes for 2010 through 2017 spectra calculated for a number of consecutive short-term intervals has been converted into monthly mean ratio (MMR) changes. The MMR values demonstrate variable sign and magnitudes, thus confirming the solar nature of the changes. These changes do not follow a "typical" trend of instrumental degradation or a long-term activity profile from the He ii (30.4 nm) irradiance measured by the Extreme ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ESP) either. The ESP is a channel of the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) on-board SDO.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Mobile phone use and incidence of glioma in the Nordic countries 1979-2008: consistency check.

PubMed

Deltour, Isabelle; Auvinen, Anssi; Feychting, Maria; Johansen, Christoffer; Klaeboe, Lars; Sankila, Risto; Schüz, Joachim

2012-03-01

Some case-control studies have reported increased risks of glioma associated with mobile phone use. If true, this would ultimately affect the time trends for incidence rates (IRs). Correspondingly, lack of change in IRs would exclude certain magnitudes of risk. We investigated glioma IR trends in the Nordic countries, and compared the observed with expected incidence rates under various risk scenarios. We analyzed annual age-standardized incidence rates in men and women aged 20 to 79 years during 1979-2008 using joinpoint regression (35,250 glioma cases). Probabilities of detecting various levels of relative risk were computed using simulations. For the period 1979 through 2008, the annual percent change in incidence rates was 0.4% (95% confidence interval = 0.1% to 0.6%) among men and 0.3% (0.1% to 0.5%) among women. Incidence rates have decreased in young men (20-39 years) since 1987, remained stable in middle-aged men (40-59 years) throughout the 30-year study period, and increased slightly in older men (60-79 years). In simulations, assumed relative risks for all users of 2.0 for an induction time of up to 15 years, 1.5 for up to 10 years, and 1.2 for up to 5 years were incompatible with observed incidence time trends. For heavy users of mobile phones, risks of 2.0 for up to 5 years' induction were also incompatible. No clear trend change in glioma incidence rates was observed. Several of the risk increases seen in case-control studies appear to be incompatible with the observed lack of incidence rate increase in middle-aged men. This suggests longer induction periods than currently investigated, lower risks than reported from some case-control studies, or the absence of any association.

Study of twenty preparations of human albumin solution which failed in quality control testing due to elevated sodium content, a poor internal quality control at manufacturing unit.

PubMed

Prasad, J P; Madhu, Y; Singh, Surinder; Soni, G R; Agnihotri, N; Singh, Varsha; Kumar, Pradeep; Jain, Nidhi; Prakash, Anu; Singh, Varun

2016-11-01

Current study is conducted in our laboratory due to failure in quality control testing of twenty batches of Human Albumin solution in which sodium content is higher than the prescribed limit. These batches are received in short duration from indigenous manufacturer and is the first incident of failure of Human albumin preparation in sodium content of manufacturer. On request of manufacturer, study is conducted to rule out the cause. Repeat testing of each out of specification batch is conducted and a trend analysis is drawn between our findings and manufacturer's results, also study of trend analysis of manufacturer for the last one year. Trend analysis data indicated towards poor consistency of batches with major shift at various time intervals in sodium content of human albumin preparation. Further analysis rule out that non-traceable quality of standard used in the internal quality control testing by manufacturer is the root cause of the problem. Copyright © 2016 International Alliance for Biological Standardization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do societal wealth, family affluence and gender account for trends in adolescent cannabis use? A 30 country cross-national study.

PubMed

ter Bogt, Tom F M; de Looze, Margreet; Molcho, Michal; Godeau, Emmanuelle; Hublet, Anne; Kokkevi, Anna; Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Nic Gabhainn, Saoirse; Franelic, Iva Pejnovic; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Sznitman, Sharon; Vieno, Alessio; Vollebergh, Wilma; Pickett, William

2014-02-01

To examine cross-national changes in frequent adolescent cannabis use (40+ times consumed over life-time at age 15) over time and relate these trends to societal wealth, family affluence and gender. Data from three cycles (2002, 2006, 2010) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) Study were used for cross-sectional and trend analyses of adolescent cannabis use. Representative surveys in 30 European and North American countries. A total of 160 606 15-year-old students. Respondents' life-time cannabis use, demographics, family affluence (FAS) and frequency of peer contacts were measured individually. Indicators of wealth (gross domestic product per capita, GDP) and perceived availability of cannabis were obtained from national public data bases. The frequency of life-time cannabis use decreased over time among adolescents in Europe and North America, particularly in western European countries and the United States (relative risk (RR) = 0.86: confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.93). This trend was not observed consistently in rapidly developing countries in eastern, central and southern Europe. Over time (2002-10), cannabis use became: (i) less characteristic of high GDP countries in contrast to lower GDP countries (RR = 0.74: CI 0.57-0.95); (ii) less characteristic of youth from high FAS families in contrast to youth from low FAS families (RR = 0.83: CI 0.72-0.96); and (iii) characterized by an increasing gender gap, i.e. consumption was higher among males (RR 1.26: CI 1.04-1.53). Perceived availability of cannabis and peer contacts remained strong predictors of frequent cannabis use. Among 30 European and North American countries, cannabis use appears to have 'trickled down' over time, with developing countries taking on the former (heavier) use pattern of richer countries, and less affluent youth taking on the former (heavier) use pattern of more affluent youth. Cannabis use continues to be more common among adolescent males than females. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

A comparison of pairs figure skaters in repeated jumps.

PubMed

Sands, William A; Kimmel, Wendy L; McNeal, Jeni R; Murray, Steven Ross; Stone, Michael H

2012-01-01

Trends in pairs figure skating have shown that increasingly difficult jumps have become an essential aspect of high-level performance, especially in the latter part of a competitive program. We compared a repeated jump power index in a 60 s repeated jump test to determine the relationship of repeated jump test to competitive rank and to measure 2D hip, knee, and ankle angles and angular velocities at 0, 20, 40, and 60 s. Eighteen National Team Pairs Figure Skaters performed a 60 s repeated jump test on a large switch-mat with timing of flight and ground durations and digital video recording. Each 60-s period was divided into 6, 10-s intervals, with power indexes (W/kg) calculated for each 10-s interval. Power index by 10-s interval repeated measures ANOVAs (RMANOVA) showed that males exceeded females at all intervals, and the highest power index interval was during 10 to 20 s for both sexes. RMANOVAs of angles and angular velocities showed main effects for time only. Power index and jumping techniques among figure skaters showed rapid and steady declines over the test duration. Power index can predict approximately 50% of competitive rank variance, and sex differences in jumping technique were rare. Key pointsThe repeated jumps test can account for about 50% of the variance in pairs ranks.Changes in technique are largely due to fatigue, but the athletes were able to maintain a maximum flexion knee angle very close to the desired 90 degrees. Changes in angular velocity and jump heights occurred as expected, again probably due to fatigue.As expected from metabolic information, the athletes' power indexes peak around 20s and decline thereafter. Coaches should be aware of this time as a boundary beyond which fatigue becomes more manifest, and use careful choreographic choices to provide rest periods that are disguised as less demanding skating elements to afford recovery.The repeated jumps test may be a helpful off-ice test of power-endurance for figure skaters.

The importance of within-year repeated counts and the influence of scale on long-term monitoring of sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, B.C.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2011-01-01

Long-term population monitoring is the cornerstone of animal conservation and management. The accuracy and precision of models developed using monitoring data can be influenced by the protocols guiding data collection. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of concern that has been monitored over decades, primarily, by counting the number of males that attend lek (breeding) sites. These lek count data have been used to assess long-term population trends and for multiple mechanistic studies. However, some studies have questioned the efficacy of lek counts to accurately identify population trends. In response, monitoring protocols were changed to have a goal of counting lek sites multiple times within a season. We assessed the influence of this change in monitoring protocols on model accuracy and precision applying generalized additive models to describe trends over time. We found that at large spatial scales including >50 leks, the absence of repeated counts within a year did not significantly alter population trend estimates or interpretation. Increasing sample size decreased the model confidence intervals. We developed a population trend model for Wyoming greater sage-grouse from 1965 to 2008, identifying significant changes in the population indices and capturing the cyclic nature of this species. Most sage-grouse declines in Wyoming occurred between 1965 and the 1990s and lek count numbers generally increased from the mid-1990s to 2008. Our results validate the combination of monitoring data collected under different protocols in past and future studies-provided those studies are addressing large-scale questions. We suggest that a larger sample of individual leks is preferable to multiple counts of a smaller sample of leks. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Trends in Inequalities in Induced Abortion According to Educational Level among Urban Women

PubMed Central

García-Subirats, Irene; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Díez, Elia; Borrell, Carme

2010-01-01

This study aims to describe trends in inequalities by women’s socioeconomic position and age in induced abortion in Barcelona (Spain) over 1992–1996 and 2000–2004. Induced abortions occurring in residents in Barcelona aged 20 and 44 years in the study period are included. Variables are age, educational level, and time periods. Induced abortion rates per 1,000 women and absolute differences for educational level, age, and time period are calculated. Poisson regression models are fitted to obtain the relative risk (RR) for trends. Induced abortion rates increased from 10.1 to 14.6 per 1,000 women aged 20–44 (RR = 1.44; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41–1.47) between 1992–1996 and 2000–2004. The abortion rate was highest among women aged 20–24 and 25–34 and changed little among women aged 35–44. Among women aged 20–24 and 25–34, those with a primary education or less had higher rates of induced abortion in the second period. Induced abortion rates also grew in those women with secondary education. In the 35–44 age group, the induced abortion rate declined among women with a secondary education (RR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.60–0.73) and slightly among those with a greater level of education. Induced abortion is rising most among women in poor socioeconomic positions. This study reveals deep inequalities in induced abortion in Barcelona, Spain. The trends identified in this study suggest that policy efforts to reduce unintended pregnancies are failing in Spain. Our study fills an important gap in literature on recent trends in Southern Europe. PMID:20229107

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Cancer Mortality Among Men in Central Serbia: 1985-2006 Survey Study

PubMed Central

Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Vlajinac, Hristina; Živković, Snežana; Miljuš, Dragan

2008-01-01

Aim To analyze cancer mortality trends in men in Central Serbia during 1985-2006 period. Methods Mortality rates and trends for the most frequent cancers in men (lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer) were calculated. Mortality rates for all cancers were adjusted by direct standardization. Percentage changes of the rates were calculated as the percentage difference between the rates of two successive years and then as a mean of these changes for the entire observed period. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. Results Total cancer mortality in men increased, with mean percentage of annual changes being 1.53% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.09-3.16). Lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers represented 58.1% and 61.6% of total cancer deaths in 1985 and 2006, respectively. Increasing trends were observed for all investigated cancers: mean annual percentage change for lung cancer was 2.31%(95% CI, 1.03-3.59), for colorectal cancer 2.23% (95% CI, -0.18-4.65), for prostate cancer 3.06% (95% CI, -2.07-8.18), and for pancreatic cancer 1.58% (95% CI, -2.17-5.32). Stomach cancer mortality significantly decreased in age groups 40-49 and 50-59 years. Conclusion The most frequent cancers in men in Central Serbia, ie, lung, colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, showed an increasing trend. Only stomach cancer mortality decreased over time. PMID:19090604

Asian American Women in California: A Pooled Analysis of Predictors for Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Breen, Nancy; Liu, Benmei; Lee, Richard; Kagawa-Singer, Marjorie

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined patterns of cervical and breast cancer screening among Asian American women in California and assessed their screening trends over time. Methods. We pooled weighted data from 5 cycles of the California Health Interview Survey (2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009) to examine breast and cervical cancer screening trends and predictors among 6 Asian nationalities. We calculated descriptive statistics, bivariate associations, multivariate logistic regressions, predictive margins, and 95% confidence intervals. Results. Multivariate analyses indicated that Papanicolaou test rates did not significantly change over time (77.9% in 2001 vs 81.2% in 2007), but mammography receipt increased among Asian American women overall (75.6% in 2001 vs 81.8% in 2009). Length of time in the United States was associated with increased breast and cervical cancer screening among all nationalities. Sociodemographic and health care access factors had varied effects, with education and insurance coverage significantly predicting screening for certain groups. Overall, we observed striking variation by nationality. Conclusions. Our results underscore the need for intervention and policy efforts that are targeted to specific Asian nationalities, recent immigrants, and individuals without health care access to increase screening rates among Asian women in California. PMID:25521898

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

2012-05-01

Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

The acute effects of outdoor temperature on blood pressure in a panel of elderly hypertensive patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Renjie; Lu, Jianxiong; Yu, Qun; Peng, Li; Yang, Dandan; Wang, Cuicui; Kan, Haidong

2015-12-01

Higher level of blood pressure (BP) in winter than in summer has been observed, but the association between temperature and BP and its potential modifiers with adjustment of individual confounders and time trends was rarely explored. We aimed to investigate the association between outdoor temperature and BP and its potential modification factors in a longitudinal panel study in Shanghai, China. From January 2011 to December 2012, we scheduled 54 follow-ups for BP measurements per subject via home visit every other week for 50 elderly hypertensive patients. We applied linear mixed-effect models to analyze the association between temperature and BP after controlling for individual characteristics, antihypertensive medication, comorbidities, and time trends. We evaluated the potential effect modifiers by stratification analyses. For a 1 °C decrease in the average temperature on concurrent day and previous day, systolic BP increased by 0.19 mmHg (95 % confidence interval = 0.06, 0.31) and diastolic BP increased by 0.12 mmHg (95 % confidence interval = 0.03, 0.21). The effect of temperature on BP was stronger among those with older age, female sex, low socioeconomic status, and obese physique. The effect was weak and even null for those taking the angiotensin receptor blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, or its combination with calcium antagonists. Further, the effect was almost restricted within those having chronic comorbidities. Our results demonstrated that an acute decrease in outdoor temperature was significantly associated with a rise in BP among elderly hypertensive patients, in Shanghai, China. Individual characteristics, antihypertensive medications, and comorbidities may modify this effect.

Trends in utilization of FDA expedited drug development and approval programs, 1987-2014: cohort study.

PubMed

Kesselheim, Aaron S; Wang, Bo; Franklin, Jessica M; Darrow, Jonathan J

2015-09-23

To evaluate the use of special expedited development and review pathways at the US Food and Drug Administration over the past two decades. Cohort study. FDA approved novel therapeutics between 1987 and 2014. Publicly available sources provided each drug's year of approval, their innovativeness (first in class versus not first in class), World Health Organization Anatomic Therapeutic Classification, and which (if any) of the FDA's four primary expedited development and review programs or designations were associated with each drug: orphan drug, fast track, accelerated approval, and priority review. Logistic regression models evaluated trends in the proportion of drugs associated with each of the four expedited development and review programs. To evaluate the number of programs associated with each approved drug over time, Poisson models were employed, with the number of programs as the dependent variable and a linear term for year of approval. The difference in trends was compared between drugs that were first in class and those that were not. The FDA approved 774 drugs during the study period, with one third representing first in class agents. Priority review (43%) was the most prevalent of the four programs, with accelerated approval (9%) the least common. There was a significant increase of 2.6% per year in the number of expedited review and approval programs granted to each newly approved agent (incidence rate ratio 1.026, 95% confidence interval 1.017 to 1.035, P<0.001), and a 2.4% increase in the proportion of drugs associated with at least one such program (odds ratio 1.024, 95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.043, P=0.009). Driving this trend was an increase in the proportion of approved, non-first in class drugs associated with at least one program for drugs (P=0.03 for interaction). In the past two decades, drugs newly approved by the FDA have been associated with an increasing number of expedited development or review programs. Though expedited programs should be strictly limited to drugs providing noticeable clinical advances, this trend is being driven by drugs that are not first in class and thus potentially less innovative. © Kesselheim et al 2015.

Assessing browse trend at the landscape level Part 2: Monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keigley, R.B.; Frisina, M.R.; Fager, C.W.

2002-01-01

In Part 1, we assessed browse trend across a wide geographic area of Mt. Haggin Wildlife Management Area by conducting surveys of browsing-related architectures. Those data were qualitative. Below we describe the periodic collection of quantitative data from permanently marked locations; we refer to this phase of the trend assessment program as "monitoring." Trend was monitored by three methods: 1 Repeat photography. 2 Comparison of the height of live stems with the height of stems killed by browsing (LD Index). 3 Net annual stem growth rate (NAGRL3). The photography provides an assessment of trend from the comparison of photographs taken at intervals of a few years. The LD Index and NAGRL3 measurements provide an immediate assessment of trend.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

2015-12-01

Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.

The time course of face processing: startle eyeblink response modulation by face gender and expression.

PubMed

Duval, Elizabeth R; Lovelace, Christopher T; Aarant, Justin; Filion, Diane L

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of both facial expression and face gender on startle eyeblink response patterns at varying lead intervals (300, 800, and 3500ms) indicative of attentional and emotional processes. We aimed to determine whether responses to affective faces map onto the Defense Cascade Model (Lang et al., 1997) to better understand the stages of processing during affective face viewing. At 300ms, there was an interaction between face expression and face gender with female happy and neutral faces and male angry faces producing inhibited startle. At 3500ms, there was a trend for facilitated startle during angry compared to neutral faces. These findings suggest that affective expressions are perceived differently in male and female faces, especially at short lead intervals. Future studies investigating face processing should take both face gender and expression into account. © 2013.

Reproductive Outcomes Among Women Exposed to a Brominated Flame Retardant In Utero

PubMed Central

Small, Chanley M.; Murray, Deanna; Terrell, Metrecia L.; Marcus, Michele

2014-01-01

The authors studied 194 women exposed to polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in utero when their mothers consumed products accidentally contaminated in Michigan in 1973. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the effect of in utero PBB exposure on adult pregnancy-related outcomes. Compared to those with the lowest exposure (≤1 ppb), those with mid-range (>1–3.16 ppb) and high (≥3.17 ppb) PBB exposure had increased odds of spontaneous abortion with wide confidence intervals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64–11.79, OR = 4.08, 95% CI = 0.94–17.70; respectively; p for trend = .05). Exposure during infancy to PBB-contaminated breast milk further increased this risk. Time to pregnancy and infertility were not associated with in utero exposure to PBB. Future studies should examine the suggested relationship between spontaneous abortion and other brominated flame retardants. PMID:22014192

[Recovery in aphasia (Part 1)].

PubMed

Hojo, K; Watanabe, S; Tasaki, H; Sato, T; Metoki, H; Saito, M

1985-08-01

In order to elucidate the factors which have an influence on the prognosis of aphasia, a correlation was studied in 76 right-handed aphasic patients between recovery rates and various factors: i.e. aphasia type, age, educational level, time between onset of aphasia and institution of therapy and initial severity. Initial evaluations on Standard Language Test of Aphasia (SLTA) were obtained within 5 months after the cerebrovascular accident and reevaluations were obtained 3 months after the initial evaluation. Recovery rates were determined by comparing scores of these 2 tests in order to coincide with clinical impression. The results obtained were as follows: Aphasia type: The highest recovery rates were seen in conduction aphasics, followed by amnestic, Wernicke, and Broca aphasics. Global aphasics had significantly lower recovery rates. It was suggested that anarthria in Broca's aphasia and jargon in Wernicke's aphasia had a significant ratarding effect on recovery rates. Age: Age and recovery rates showed a significant negative correlation: younger patients recovered better, and this trend was remarkable in Wernicke aphasics but not Broca aphasics. Education: Patients with more education tended to improve more, and this trend was most remarkable in amnestic aphasics. Time between onset of aphasia and institution of therapy: Time elapsed from onset and recovery rates showed a significant negative correlation; recovery rates decreased as the time interval from onset increased. Initial severity: Correlation between the initial severity of aphasia, measured by the initial SLTA scores and recovery rates was very high; severily affected aphasics recovered to a lesser extent than mildly affected ones and this trend was remarkable in Wernicke and Broca aphasics.

Climate-induced variations of geyser periodicity in Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurwitz, S.; Kumar, A.; Taylor, R.; Heasler, H.

2008-01-01

The geysers of Yellowstone National Park, United States, attract millions of visitors each year, and their eruption dynamics have been the subject of extensive research for more than a century. Although many of the fundamental aspects associated with the dynamics of geyser eruptions have been elucidated, the relationship between external forcing (Earth tides, barometric pressure, and precipitation) and geyser eruption intervals (GEIs) remains a matter of ongoing debate. We present new instrumental GEI data and demonstrate, through detailed time-series analysis, that geysers respond to both long-term precipitation trends and to the seasonal hydrologic cycle. Responsiveness to long-term trends is reflected by a negative correlation between the annual averages of GEIs and stream flow in the Madison River. This response is probably associated with long-term pressure changes in the underlying hydrothermal reservoir. We relate seasonal GEI lengthening to snowmelt recharge. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Access to kidney transplantation in European adults aged 75-84 years and related outcomes: an analysis of the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association Registry.

PubMed

Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Kramer, Anneke; Abad Diez, Jose M; Aresté-Fosalba, Nuria; Ayav, Carole; Buturovic, Jadranka; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Couchoud, Cécile; De Meester, Johan; Heaf, James G; Helanterä, Ilkka; Hemmelder, Marc H; Kostopoulou, Myrto; Noordzij, Marlies; Pascual, Julio; Palsson, Runolfur; Reisaeter, Anna Varberg; Traynor, Jamie P; Massy, Ziad; Jager, Kitty J

2018-05-01

To what extent access to, and allocation of kidney transplants and survival outcomes in patients aged ≥75 years have changed over time in Europe is unclear. We included patients aged ≥75-84 years (termed older adults) receiving renal replacement therapy in thirteen European countries between 2005 and 2014. Country differences and time trends in access to, and allocation of kidney transplants were examined. Survival outcomes were determined by Cox regression analyses. Between 2005 and 2014, 1392 older adult patients received 1406 transplants. Access to kidney transplantation varied from ~0% (Slovenia, Greece and Denmark) to ~4% (Norway and various Spanish regions) of all older adult dialysis patients, and overall increased from 0.3% (2005) to 0.9% (2014). Allocation of kidney transplants to older adults overall increased from 0.8% (2005) to 3.2% (2014). Seven-year unadjusted patient and graft survival probabilities were 49.1% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 43.6; 54.4) and 41.7% (95% CI: 36.5; 46.8), respectively, with a temporal trend towards improved survival outcomes. In conclusion, in the European dialysis population aged ≥75-84 years access to kidney transplantation is low, and allocation of kidney transplants remains a rare event. Though both are increasing with time and vary considerably between countries. The trend towards improved survival outcomes is encouraging. This information can aid informed decision-making regarding treatment options. © 2018 Steunstichting ESOT.

Discovery of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on temporal gene expression profiling

PubMed Central

Li, Xia; Rao, Shaoqi; Jiang, Wei; Li, Chuanxing; Xiao, Yun; Guo, Zheng; Zhang, Qingpu; Wang, Lihong; Du, Lei; Li, Jing; Li, Li; Zhang, Tianwen; Wang, Qing K

2006-01-01

Background It is one of the ultimate goals for modern biological research to fully elucidate the intricate interplays and the regulations of the molecular determinants that propel and characterize the progression of versatile life phenomena, to name a few, cell cycling, developmental biology, aging, and the progressive and recurrent pathogenesis of complex diseases. The vast amount of large-scale and genome-wide time-resolved data is becoming increasing available, which provides the golden opportunity to unravel the challenging reverse-engineering problem of time-delayed gene regulatory networks. Results In particular, this methodological paper aims to reconstruct regulatory networks from temporal gene expression data by using delayed correlations between genes, i.e., pairwise overlaps of expression levels shifted in time relative each other. We have thus developed a novel model-free computational toolbox termed TdGRN (Time-delayed Gene Regulatory Network) to address the underlying regulations of genes that can span any unit(s) of time intervals. This bioinformatics toolbox has provided a unified approach to uncovering time trends of gene regulations through decision analysis of the newly designed time-delayed gene expression matrix. We have applied the proposed method to yeast cell cycling and human HeLa cell cycling and have discovered most of the underlying time-delayed regulations that are supported by multiple lines of experimental evidence and that are remarkably consistent with the current knowledge on phase characteristics for the cell cyclings. Conclusion We established a usable and powerful model-free approach to dissecting high-order dynamic trends of gene-gene interactions. We have carefully validated the proposed algorithm by applying it to two publicly available cell cycling datasets. In addition to uncovering the time trends of gene regulations for cell cycling, this unified approach can also be used to study the complex gene regulations related to the development, aging and progressive pathogenesis of a complex disease where potential dependences between different experiment units might occurs. PMID:16420705

Tobacco-Free Pharmacy Laws and Trends in Tobacco Retailer Density in California and Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Jin, Yue; Lu, Bo; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Berman, Micah; Foraker, Randi E.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine the impact of local laws prohibiting tobacco sales in pharmacies in California and Massachusetts, the only 2 US states in which such municipal laws exist. Methods. We analyzed longitudinally the tobacco retailer density at the city level from tobacco retailer license data in California (2005–2013) and Massachusetts (2004–2014). Results. After adjustments, the reduction in tobacco retailer density over time was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 1.51) to 3.18 (95% CI = 1.11, 5.25) times greater in cities with a tobacco-free pharmacy law than in cities without such a law. Conclusions. Tobacco-free pharmacy laws are associated with a greater reduction in tobacco retailer density over time in California and Massachusetts. PMID:26890173

Subsidence related to groundwater pumping for breweries in Merchtem area (Belgium), highlighted by Persistent Scaterrer Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declercq, Pierre-Yves; Gerard, Pierre; Pirard, Eric; Perissin, Daniele; Walstra, Jan; Devleeschouwer, Xavier

2017-12-01

ERS, ENVISAT and TerraSAR-X Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes covering the time span 1992-2014 were processed using a Persistent Scatterer technique to study the ground movements in Merchtem (25 km NW of Brussels, Belgium). The processed datasets, covering three consecutive time intervals, reveal that the investigated area is affected by a global subsidence trend related to the extraction of groundwater in the deeper Cambro-Silurian aquifer. Through time the subsidence pattern is reduced and replaced by an uplift related to the rising water table attested by piezometers located in this aquifer. The subsidence is finally reduced to a zone where currently three breweries are very active and pump groundwater in the Ledo-Paniselian aquifer and in the Cambro-Silurian for process water for the production.

Evidence for local and global redox conditions at an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian) mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Cole T.; Fike, David A.; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Lu, Wanyi; Lu, Zunli

2018-01-01

Profound changes in environmental conditions, particularly atmospheric oxygen levels, are thought to be important drivers of several major biotic events (e.g. mass extinctions and diversifications). The early Paleozoic represents a key interval in the oxygenation of the ocean-atmosphere system and evolution of the biosphere. Global proxies (e.g. carbon (δ13C) and sulfur (δ34S) isotopes) are used to diagnose potential changes in oxygenation and infer causes of environmental change and biotic turnover. The Cambrian-Ordovician contains several trilobite extinctions (some are apparently local, but others are globally correlative) that are attributed to anoxia based on coeval positive δ13C and δ34S excursions. These extinction and excursion events have yet to be coupled with more recently developed proxies thought to be more reflective of local redox conditions in the water column (e.g. I/Ca) to confirm whether these extinctions were associated with oxygen crises over a regional or global scale. Here we examine an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian Stage) extinction event previously interpreted to reflect a continuation of recurrent early Paleozoic anoxic events that expanded into nearshore environments. δ13C, δ34S, and I/Ca trends were measured from three sections in the Great Basin region to test whether I/Ca trends support the notion that anoxia was locally present in the water column along the Laurentian margin. Evidence for anoxia is based on coincident, but not always synchronous, positive δ13C and δ34S excursions (mainly from carbonate-associated sulfate and less so from pyrite data), a 30% extinction of standing generic diversity, and near-zero I/Ca values. Although evidence for local water column anoxia from the I/Ca proxy broadly agrees with intervals of global anoxia inferred from δ13C and δ34S trends, a more complex picture is evident where spatially and temporally variable local trends are superimposed on time-averaged global trends. Stratigraphic sections from the distal and deeper part of the basin (Shingle Pass and Meiklejohn Peak) preserve synchronous global (δ13C and δ34S) and water column (I/Ca) evidence for anoxia, but not at the more proximal section (Ibex, UT). Although geochemical and paleontological evidence point toward anoxia as the driver of this Early Ordovician extinction event, differences between I/Ca and δ13C-δ34S signals suggest regional variation in the timing, extent, and persistence of anoxia.

Evaluation of listener-based anuran surveys with automated audio recording devices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shearin, A. F.; Calhoun, A.J.K.; Loftin, C.S.

2012-01-01

Volunteer-based audio surveys are used to document long-term trends in anuran community composition and abundance. Current sampling protocols, however, are not region- or species-specific and may not detect relatively rare or audibly cryptic species. We used automated audio recording devices to record calling anurans during 2006–2009 at wetlands in Maine, USA. We identified species calling, chorus intensity, time of day, and environmental variables when each species was calling and developed logistic and generalized mixed models to determine the time interval and environmental variables that optimize detection of each species during peak calling periods. We detected eight of nine anurans documented in Maine. Individual recordings selected from the sampling period (0.5 h past sunset to 0100 h) described in the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) detected fewer species than were detected in recordings from 30 min past sunset until sunrise. Time of maximum detection of presence and full chorusing for three species (green frogs, mink frogs, pickerel frogs) occurred after the NAAMP sampling end time (0100 h). The NAAMP protocol’s sampling period may result in omissions and misclassifications of chorus sizes for certain species. These potential errors should be considered when interpreting trends generated from standardized anuran audio surveys.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Trends in reasons for non-receipt of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in Georgia, 2004-2011.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Allison T; Berkelman, Ruth L; Ault, Kevin A; Rosenberg, Eli S; Orenstein, Walter A; Omer, Saad B

2016-03-18

Considerable research has identified barriers to antenatal influenza vaccination, yet no research has explored temporal trends in reasons for non-receipt. To examine trends in reasons for non-receipt of influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Serial cross-sectional analyses using 8 years of Georgia Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring Survey (PRAMS) data were conducted. Weighted logistic regression was used to examine trends in the prevalence of citing reasons for non-receipt over time. Between 2004 and 2011, 8300 women reported no influenza vaccination during or immediately before pregnancy. Proportions of women citing "doctor didn't mention vaccination," "in first trimester during influenza season," and "not pregnant during influenza season" decreased significantly over time (Doctor didn't mention: 48.0% vs. 27.1%, test for trend p<0.001; in first trimester: 26.8% vs. 16.3%, test for trend p<0.001; not influenza season: 24.2% vs. 12.7%, test for trend p=0.001). Safety concerns increased over 2004 proportions in 2010 (concern about side effects for me: 40.2% vs. 28.5%, prevalence ratio (PR): 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.71; concern about harming my baby: 38.9% vs. 31.0%, PR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.53) and 2011 (concern about side effects for me: 39.0% vs. 28.5%, PR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.65; concern about harming my baby: 38.8% vs. 31.0%, PR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). Following the 2009/2010 H1N1 pandemic, more Hispanic women cited concern about vaccination harming their baby than other women; in 2011, their concern remained elevated relative to non-Hispanic white women (63% vs. 35%; adjusted PR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.61). Examining trends in reasons for non-receipt of antenatal influenza vaccination can reflect successes related to vaccine promotion and areas for improvement. By highlighting differential impacts of the 2009/2010 H1N1 pandemic, we reveal opportunities for additional research on tailoring vaccine promotion efforts to specific types of women. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

High-intensity interval training has positive effects on performance in ice hockey players.

PubMed

Naimo, M A; de Souza, E O; Wilson, J M; Carpenter, A L; Gilchrist, P; Lowery, R P; Averbuch, B; White, T M; Joy, J

2015-01-01

In spite of the well-known benefits that have been shown, few studies have looked at the practical applications of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on athletic performance. This study investigated the effects of a HIIT program compared to traditional continuous endurance exercise training. 24 hockey players were randomly assigned to either a continuous or high-intensity interval group during a 4-week training program. The interval group (IG) was involved in a periodized HIIT program. The continuous group (CG) performed moderate intensity cycling for 45-60 min at an intensity that was 65% of their calculated heart rate reserve. Body composition, muscle thickness, anaerobic power, and on-ice measures were assessed pre- and post-training. Muscle thickness was significantly greater in IG (p=0.01) when compared to CG. The IG had greater values for both ∆ peak power (p<0.003) and ∆ mean power (p<0.02). Additionally, IG demonstrated a faster ∆ sprint (p<0.02) and a trend (p=0.08) for faster ∆ endurance test time to completion for IG. These results indicate that hockey players may utilize short-term HIIT to elicit positive effects in muscle thickness, power and on-ice performance. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Trends in stage-specific incidence of prostate cancer in Norway, 1980-2010: a population-based study.

PubMed

Møller, Mette H; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Beisland, Christian; Rørvik, Jarle; Støvring, Henrik

2016-10-01

To estimate changes in the stage distribution of prostate cancer during the time period where opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing was introduced. Cancer stage, age, and year of diagnosis were obtained for all men aged >50 years diagnosed with prostate cancer in Norway during the period 1980-2010. Three calendar-time periods (1980-1989, 1990-2000, and 2001-2010) and three age groups (50-65, 66-74, and ≥75 years) were defined. Birth cohorts were categorised into four intervals: ≤1915, 1916-1925, 1926-1940 and ≥1941. We used Poisson regressions to conduct both a time period and cohort-based analysis of trends in the incidence of localised, regional, and distant cancer for each combination of age groups and calendar-time periods or birth cohorts, respectively. Additionally, we explored the effect of cohorts on the stage-specific incidence graphically with a Poisson regression using 5-year age groups, and by estimating cumulative incidence rates for each birth cohort. The annual incidence of localised cancers among men aged 50-65 and 66-74 years rose from 41.4 and 255.2 per 100 000, respectively, before the introduction of PSA testing to 137.9 and 418.7 in 2001-2010 afterwards, corresponding to 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-3.5] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) fold increases. The incidence of regional cancers increased by a factor seven among men aged <75 years. The incidence of distant cancers in men aged ≥75 years decreased by 29% (95% CI 25-33%). These findings were confirmed in the cohort-based approach. Opportunistic PSA testing substantially increased the incidence of localised and regional prostate cancers among men aged 50-74 years, which was not fully compensated by the 30% decrease in incidence of distant prostate cancers in older men. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load: the Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration, 1985-2002.

PubMed

Dorrucci, Maria; Rezza, Giovanni; Porter, Kholoud; Phillips, Andrew

2007-02-15

To determine whether early postseroconversion CD4 cell counts and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) loads have changed over time. Our analysis was based on 22 cohorts of people with known dates of seroconversion from Europe, Australia, and Canada (Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration). We focused on individuals seroconverting between 1985 and 2002 who had the first CD4 cell count (n=3687) or HIV load (n=1584) measured within 2 years of seroconversion and before antiretroviral use. Linear regression models were used to assess time trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load. Trends in time to key thresholds were also assessed, using survival analysis. The overall median initial CD4 cell count was 570 cells/ microL (interquartile range [IQR], 413-780 cells/ microL). The median initial HIV load was 35,542 copies/mL (IQR, 7600-153,050 copies/mL; on log(10) scale, 3.9-5.2 log(10) copies/mL). The postseroconversion CD4 cell count changed by an average of -6.33 cells/ microL/year (95% confidence interval [CI], -8.47 to -4.20 cells/ microL/year; P<.001), whereas an increase was observed in log(10) HIV load (+0.044 log(10) copies/mL/year; 95% CI, +0.034 to +0.053 log(10) copies/mL/year). These trends remained after adjusting for potential confounders. The probability of progressing to a CD4 cell count of <500 cells/ microL by 24 months from seroconversion increased from 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) for individuals who seroconverted before 1991 to 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.84) for those who seroconverted during 1999-2002. These data suggest that, in Europe, there has been a trend of decrease in the early CD4 cell count and of increase in the early HIV load. Additional research will be necessary to determine whether similar trends exist in other geographical areas.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko

2016-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for recurrent earthquakes of inland active faults in Japan. Renewal processes with the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution are applied for over a half of active faults in Japan by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. Long-term forecast with the BPT distribution needs two parameters; the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) for recurrence intervals. The HERP applies a common COV parameter for all of these faults because most of them have very few specified paleoseismic events, which is not enough to estimate reliable COV values for respective faults. However, different COV estimates are proposed for the same paleoseismic catalog by some related works. It can make critical difference in forecast to apply different COV estimates and so COV should be carefully selected for individual faults. Recurrence intervals on a fault are, on the average, determined by the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion but fluctuated by nearby seismicities which influence surrounding stress field. The COVs of recurrence intervals depend on such stress perturbation and so have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus we introduce a spatial structure on its COV parameter by Bayesian modeling with a Gaussian process prior. The COVs on active faults are correlated and take similar values for closely located faults. It is found that the spatial trends in the estimated COV values coincide with the density of active faults in Japan. We also show Bayesian forecasts by the proposed model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our forecasts are different from HERP's forecast especially on the active faults where HERP's forecasts are very high or low.

Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

PubMed

Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

2017-11-01

The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (<30-49, 50-64 and ≥65 years). ER+/HER2- cancers rose, ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat and ER-/HER± cancers declined. Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were like those previously observed. Stratification by HER2± expression did not substantively alter ER± trends. The divergence of ER± incidence rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reconstruction of Middle Eocene - Late Oligocene Southern Ocean paleoclimate through calcareous nannofossils and stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villa, Giuliana; Fioroni, Chiara; Persico, Davide; Pea, Laura; Bohaty, Steve

2010-05-01

The transition from the ice free early Paleogene world to the glaciated conditions of the early Oligocene has been matter of discussion in the last years. This transition has not been monotonic but punctuated by numerous transient cooling and warming events. Here we present a summary of recent studies based on Nannofossil response to climatic changes during the Eocene and Oligocene. Collected data issue from high latitudes ODP Sites 748, 738, 744, 689 and 690. Based on a detailed revision of the biostratigraphy carried out through quantitative analysis, we conducted paleoecological studies on calcareous nannofossils through the late middle Eocene to the - late Oligocene interval to identify abundance variations of selected taxa in response to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and trophic conditions. The nannofossil-based interpretation has been compared with detailed oxygen and carbon stable isotope stratigraphy confirming the climate variability in the Southern Ocean for this time interval. We identify the Middle Eocene Climatic optimum (MECO) event, related with the regional exclusion of Paleogenic warm-water taxa from the Southern Ocean, followed by the progressive cooling trend particularly emphasized during the cooling events at about 39 Ma, 37 Ma and 35.5 Ma. In the earliest Oligocene, marked changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages are strikingly associated with the Oi-1 event recorded in perfect accordance with the oxygen isotope records. For most of the Oligocene we recorded a cold phase, while a warming trend is detected in the late Oligocene. In addiction, a marked increase of taxa thriving in eutrophic conditions coupled with a decrease in oligotrophic taxa, suggests the presence of a time interval (from about 36 Ma to about 26 Ma) with prevailing eutrophic conditions that correspond to an increase of the carbon stable isotope curve. This interval well corresponds with the clay mineral concentration that shows at Site 738 a higher concentration in illite (Ehrmann and Mackensen, 1992). This result can be interpreted as a major influx of weathering in the basin, bringing more nutrients to the surface water. Our data confirm a strong climate variability in the Southern Ocean during the middle Eocene - late Oligocene and nannofossils demonstrate to be useful tools for paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic reconstructions.

Trends and inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality across 7932 English electoral wards, 1982–2006: Bayesian spatial analysis

PubMed Central

Asaria, Perviz; Fortunato, Lea; Fecht, Daniela; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Abellan, Juan Jose; Hambly, Peter; de Hoogh, Kees; Ezzati, Majid; Elliott, Paul

2012-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has more than halved in England since the 1980s, but there are few data on small-area trends. We estimated CVD mortality by ward in 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, and examined trends in relation to starting mortality, region and community deprivation. Methods We analysed CVD death rates using a Bayesian spatial technique for all 7932 English electoral wards in consecutive 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, separately for men and women aged 30–64 years and ≥65 years. Results Age-standardized CVD mortality declined in the majority of wards, but increased in 186 wards for women aged ≥65 years. The decline was larger where starting mortality had been higher. When grouped by deprivation quintile, absolute inequality between most- and least-deprived wards narrowed over time in those aged 30–64 years, but increased in older adults; relative inequalities worsened in all four age–sex groups. Wards with high CVD mortality in 2002–06 fell into two groups: those in and around large metropolitan cities in northern England that started with high mortality in 1982–86 and could not ‘catch up’, despite impressive declines, and those that started with average or low mortality in the 1980s but ‘fell behind’ because of small mortality reductions. Conclusions Improving population health and reducing health inequalities should be treated as related policy and measurement goals. Ongoing analysis of mortality by small area is essential to monitor local effects on health and health inequalities of the public health and healthcare systems. PMID:23129720

Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

PubMed Central

Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

2013-01-01

Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

2002-01-01

The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggest that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2-3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ???5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

Widening educational inequalities in adolescent smoking following national tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Kuipers, Mirte A G; Nagelhout, Gera E; Willemsen, Marc C; Kunst, Anton E

2014-10-01

In 2003, the Netherlands introduced tobacco control policies, including bans on tobacco sales to minors, advertising and sponsoring and tobacco sales in government institutions. We examined the extent to which these policies were associated with a change in educational inequalities in adolescent smoking. Repeated cross-sectional survey. The Netherlands, 1992-2011. A total of 43 527 14-19-year-old adolescents. Data were obtained from the national Youth Smoking Monitor. We used logistic regression analyses to model the immediate change in daily smoking prevalence in 2003, the trends and the changes in trends. Models included interactions between educational level (high versus low, based on the educational track of the respondent) and, respectively, period (after versus before 2003), time and time × period. Before 2003 the smoking trend declined slightly, and the decline was comparable for students of both high and low educational levels. Immediately after tobacco policies were introduced, daily smoking prevalence dropped for the total population [regression coefficient (β) = -0.340, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.445; -0.236]. This drop was larger for high educational level compared to low educational level (β interaction = -0.400, 95% CI = -0.623; -0.176). After 2003, trends in educational inequalities in smoking stabilized. Following the introduction of new tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003, smoking prevalence rates decreased among adolescents of both higher and lower educational levels. However, socio-economic inequalities in adolescent smoking increased. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

PubMed

Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

2015-01-01

What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

The Effect of a Clinical Decision Support System on Improving Adherence to Guideline in the Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

PubMed

Sheibani, Reza; Sheibani, Mehdi; Heidari-Bakavoli, Alireza; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Eslami, Saeid

2017-12-23

To evaluate the effect of a computerized Decision Support System (CDSS) on improving adherence to an anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). This study had an interrupted time series design. The adherence to the guideline was assessed at fortnightly (two weeks) intervals from January 2016 to January 2017, 6 months before and 6 months after intervention. Newly diagnosed patients with AF were included in the offices of ten cardiologists. Stroke and major bleeding risks were calculated by the CDSS which was implemented via a mobile application. Treatment recommendations based on the guideline were shown to cardiologists. The segmented regression model was used to evaluate the effect of CDSS on level and trend of guideline adherence for the treatment of AF. In our analysis, 373 patients were included. The trend of adherence to the anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of AF was stable in the pre-intervention phase. After the CDSS intervention, mean of the adherence to the guideline significantly increased from 48% to 65.5% (P-value < 0.0001). The trend of adherence to the guideline was stable in the post-intervention phase. Our results showed that the CDSS can improve adherence to the anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of AF. Registration ID: IRCT2016052528070N1.

The Epidemiological features of lymphoid malignancies in Benin City, Nigeria: a 15 years study

PubMed Central

Omoti, Caroline Edijana; Nwannadi, Alexander Ikenna; Obieche, Jude Chike; Olu-Eddo, Adesuwa Noma

2012-01-01

Introduction Lymphoid malignancies compose a wide spectrum of different morphologic and clinical syndromes known to vary widely throughout the world. The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence and time trends of lymphoid malignancies. Methods A 15 (May 1st 1996-April 30th 2010) years study of all patients who had lymph node biopsy at the Department of Haematology and Pathology, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria. Results The 391 patients had a male preponderance (M:F; 1.6:1). An increase in the lymphoid malignant cases was noted from 95 cases in the first 5-year interval (1996–2000) to 179 cases in the last 5-year interval (2006–2010) giving an average increase of 84.0%. Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (61.1%) and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (18.2%) were the most frequent followed by Hodgkin's lymphoma and myeloma with equal proportions of 9.0% each. A positive correlation with a significant linear trends was obtained (r=0.1949, p<0.0001). Geographic areas at risk were found mainly in patients residing in Delta State (67.0%) which is a major oil producing state and Edo State (30.4%) where the hospital is located, both in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. Conclusion Future research into environmental agents and genetic makeup/HLA typing of patients can be carried out. PMID:22368753

100,000-year-long terrestrial record of millennial-scale linkage between eastern North American mid-latitude paleovegetation shifts and Greenland ice-core oxygen isotope trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Litwin, Ronald J.; Smoot, Joseph P.; Pavich, Milan J.; Markewich, Helaine Walsh; Brook, George; Durika, Nancy J.

2013-01-01

We document frequent, rapid, strong, millennial-scale paleovegetation shifts throughout the late Pleistocene, within a 100,000+ yr interval (~ 115–15 ka) of terrestrial sediments from the mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of North America. High-resolution analyses of fossil pollen from one core locality revealed a continuously shifting sequence of thermally dependent forest assemblages, ranging between two endmembers: subtropical oak-tupelo-bald cypress-gum forest and high boreal spruce-pine forest. Sedimentary textural evidence indicates fluvial, paludal, and loess deposition, and paleosol formation, representing sequential freshwater to subaerial environments in which this record was deposited. Its total age"depth model, based on radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence ages, ranges from terrestrial oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 6 to 1. The particular core sub-interval presented here is correlative in trend and timing to that portion of the oxygen isotope sequence common among several Greenland ice cores: interstades GI2 to GI24 (≈ OIS2–5 d). This site thus provides the first evidence for an essentially complete series of "Dansgaard"Oeschger" climate events in the MAR. These data reveal that the ~ 100,000 yr preceding the Late Glacial and Holocene in the MAR of North America were characterized by frequently and dynamically changing climate states, and by vegetation shifts that closely tracked the Greenland paleoclimate sequence.

A small-scale randomised controlled trial of home telemonitoring in patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Shany, Tal; Hession, Michael; Pryce, David; Roberts, Mary; Basilakis, Jim; Redmond, Stephen; Lovell, Nigel; Schreier, Guenter

2017-08-01

Introduction This was a pilot study to examine the effects of home telemonitoring (TM) of patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods A randomised controlled 12-month trial of 42 patients with severe COPD was conducted. Home TM of oximetry, temperature, pulse, electrocardiogram, blood pressure, spirometry, and weight with telephone support and home visits was tested against a control group receiving only identical telephone support and home visits. Results The results suggest that TM had a reduction in COPD-related admissions, emergency department presentations, and hospital bed days. TM also seemed to increase the interval between COPD-related exacerbations requiring a hospital visit and prolonged the time to the first admission. The interval between hospital visits was significantly different between the study arms, while the other findings did not reach significance and only suggest a trend. There was a reduction in hospital admission costs. TM was adopted well by most patients and eventually, also by the nursing staff, though it did not seem to change patients' psychological well-being. Discussion Ability to draw firm conclusions is limited due to the small sample size. However the trends of reducing hospital visits warrant a larger study of a similar design. When designing such a trial, one should consider the potential impact of the high quality of care already made available to this patient cohort.

Land-cover trends in the Mojave basin and range ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Raumann, Christian G.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Land-Cover Trends Project aims to estimate the rates of contemporary land-cover change within the conterminous United States between 1972 and 2000. A random sampling approach was used to select a representative sample of 10-km by 10-km sample blocks and to estimate change within +/- 1 percent at an 85-percent confidence interval. Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data were used, and each 60-m pixel was assigned to one of 11 distinct land-cover classes based upon a modified Anderson classification system. Upon completion of land-cover change mapping for five dates, land-cover change statistics were generated and analyzed. This paper presents estimates for the Mojave Basin and Range ecoregion located in the southwestern United States. Our research suggests land-cover change within the Mojave to be relatively rare and highly localized. The primary shift in land cover is unidirectional, with natural desert grass/shrubland being converted to development. We estimate that more than 1,300 km2 have been converted since 1973 and that the conversion is being largely driven by economic and recreational opportunities provided by the Mojave ecoregion. The time interval with the highest rate of change was 1986 to 1992, in which the rate was 0.21 percent (321.9 km2) per year total change.

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Body Size Evolution in Conodonts from the Cambrian through the Triassic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaal, E. K.; Morgan, D. J.; Payne, J.

2013-12-01

The size of an organism exercises tremendous control over its physiology, life history, and ecology, yet the factors that influence body size evolution remain poorly understood. One major limitation is the lack of appropriate datasets spanning long intervals of evolutionary time. Here, we document size trends in conodonts (tooth-like microfossils from marine chordates) because they evolved rapidly and are known to change size during intervals of environmental change. By measuring photographs from the Catalogue of Conodonts (Ziegler 1982), we compiled a database of conodont P1 element measurements for 575 species and subspecies from the Cambrian through Triassic periods. Because tooth size correlates with body size in conodont animals and their extant relatives, conodont element length can serve as a proxy for the size of the conodont animal. We find that mean and maximum size across species increased during the early Paleozoic, peaked during the Devonian-Mississippian, and then generally decreased until conodonts went extinct at the end of the Triassic. We used regression analyses to compare conodont mean size trends to potential environmental predictors, such as changing atmospheric pO2, atmospheric pCO2, and sea level. Conodont size exhibited poor correlation with these environmental factors, suggesting that conodont evolution may have been more strongly influenced by other environmental covariates or ecological variables such as predation and competition.

Development of the USGS national land-cover database over two decades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Yang, Limin; Weng, Qihao

2011-01-01

Land-cover composition and change have profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Land-cover and land-use (LCLU) conditions and their changes can affect social and physical environments by altering ecosystem conditions and services. Information about LCLU change is often used to produce landscape-based metrics and evaluate landscape conditions to monitor LCLU status and trends over a specific time interval (Loveland et al. 2002; Coppin et al. 2004; Lunetta et al. 2006). Continuous, accurate, and up-to-date land-cover data are important for natural resource and ecosystem management and are needed to support consistent monitoring of landscape attributes over time. Large-area land-cover information at regional, national, and global scales is critical for monitoring landscape variations over large areas.

Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

2014-01-01

Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland). Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios. The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country. A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

Combined influence of adjuvant therapy and interval after surgery on peripheral CD4+ T lymphocytes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

LING, YANG; FAN, LIEYING; DONG, CHUNLEI; ZHU, JING; LIU, YONGPING; NI, YAN; ZHU, CHANGTAI; ZHANG, CHANGSONG

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate possible differences in cellular immunity between chemo- and/or radiotherapy groups during a long interval after surgery in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Cellular immunity was assessed as peripheral lymphocyte subsets in response to chemotherapy (CT), radiotherapy (RT) and CT+RT by flow cytometric analysis. There were 139 blood samples obtained at different time points relative to surgery from 73 patients with ESCC. The changes in the absolute and relative proportions of lymphocyte phenotypes were significant among the adjuvant therapy groups. There were significant differences in the absolute counts of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells among the interval groups, and a lower CD4/CD8 ratio was found in patients following a prolonged interval. RT alone had a profound effect on the absolute counts of CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells compared with the other groups. CD4+ T cells exhibited a decreasing trend during a long interval, leading to a prolonged T-cell imbalance after surgery. Univariate analysis revealed that the interaction of the type of adjuvant therapy and the interval after surgery was correlated only with the percentage of CD4+ T cells. The percentage of CD4+ T cells can be used as an indicator of the cellular immunity after surgery in ESCC patients. However, natural killer cells consistently remained suppressed in ESCC patients following adjuvant therapy after surgery. These findings confirm an interaction between adjuvant therapy and the interval after surgery on peripheral CD4+ T cells, and implies that adjuvant therapy may have selective influence on the cellular immunity of ESCC patients after surgery. PMID:23136603

Mammography interval and breast cancer mortality in women over the age of 75.

PubMed

Simon, Michael S; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Thomson, Cynthia A; Ray, Roberta M; Hubbell, F Allan; Lessin, Lawrence; Lane, Dorothy S; Kuller, Lew H

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between mammography interval and breast cancer mortality among older women with breast cancer. The study population included 1,914 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at age 75 or later during their participation in the Women's health initiative, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years (3.1 SD). Cause of death was based on medical record review. Mammography interval was defined as the time between the last self-reported mammogram 7 or more months prior to diagnosis, and the date of diagnosis. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were computed from Cox proportional hazards analyses. Prior mammograms were reported by 73.0 % of women from 7 months to ≤2 year of diagnosis (referent group), 19.4 % (>2 to <5 years), and 7.5 % (≥5 years or no prior mammogram). Women with the longest versus shortest intervals had more poorly differentiated (28.5 % vs. 22.7 %), advanced stage (25.7 % vs. 22.9 %), and estrogen receptor negative tumors (20.9 % vs. 13.1 %). Compared to the referent group, women with intervals of >2 to <5 years or ≥5 years had an increased risk of breast cancer mortality (HR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.03-2.54) and (HR 2.80, 95 % CI 1.57-5.00), respectively, p trend = 0.0002. There was no significant relationship between mammography interval and other causes of death. These results suggest a continued role for screening mammography among women 75 years of age and older.

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Lumbar Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003 to 2013.

PubMed

Bernstein, David N; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

2017-05-01

Retrospective database analysis. The impact of the 2008-2009 economic downtown on elective lumbar spine surgery is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the effect of the economic downturn on the overall trends of elective lumbar spine surgery in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used in conjunction with US Census and macroeconomic data to determine historical trends. The economic downturn was defined as 2008 to 2009. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), were used in order to identify appropriate procedures. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. From 2003 to 2012, there was a 19.8% and 26.1% decrease in the number of lumbar discectomies and laminectomies, respectively. Over the same time period, there was a 56.4% increase in the number of lumbar spinal fusions. The trend of elective lumbar spine surgeries per 100 000 persons in the US population remained consistent from 2008 to 2009. The number of procedures decreased by 4.5% from 2010 to 2011, 7.6% from 2011 to 2012, and 3.1% from 2012 to 2013. The R 2 value between the number of surgeries and the S&P 500 Index was statistically significant ( P ≤ .05). The economic downturn did not affect elective lumbar fusions, which increased in total from 2003 to 2013. The relationship between the S&P 500 Index and surgical trends suggests that during recessions, individuals may utilize other means, such as insurance, to cover procedural costs and reduce out-of-pocket expenditures, accounting for no impact of the economic downturn on surgical trends. These findings can assist multiple stakeholders in better understanding the interconnectedness of macroeconomics, policy, and elective lumbar spine surgery trends.

A fast estimation of shock wave pressure based on trend identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhenjian; Wang, Zhongyu; Wang, Chenchen; Lv, Jing

2018-04-01

In this paper, a fast method based on trend identification is proposed to accurately estimate the shock wave pressure in a dynamic measurement. Firstly, the collected output signal of the pressure sensor is reconstructed by discrete cosine transform (DCT) to reduce the computational complexity for the subsequent steps. Secondly, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to decompose the reconstructed signal into several components with different frequency-bands, and the last few low-frequency components are chosen to recover the trend of the reconstructed signal. In the meantime, the optimal component number is determined based on the correlation coefficient and the normalized Euclidean distance between the trend and the reconstructed signal. Thirdly, with the areas under the gradient curve of the trend signal, the stable interval that produces the minimum can be easily identified. As a result, the stable value of the output signal is achieved in this interval. Finally, the shock wave pressure can be estimated according to the stable value of the output signal and the sensitivity of the sensor in the dynamic measurement. A series of shock wave pressure measurements are carried out with a shock tube system to validate the performance of this method. The experimental results show that the proposed method works well in shock wave pressure estimation. Furthermore, comparative experiments also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing approaches in both estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

The effects of apremilast on the QTc interval in healthy male volunteers: a formal, thorough QT study

PubMed Central

Palmisano, Maria; Wu, Anfan; Assaf, Mahmoud; Liu, Liangang; Park, C. Hyung; Savant, Ishani; Liu, Yong; Zhou, Simon

2016-01-01

Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of apremilast and its major metabolites on the placebo-corrected change-from-baseline QTc interval of an electrocardiogram (ECG). Materials and methods: Healthy male subjects received each of 4 treatments in a randomized, crossover manner. In the 2 active treatment periods, apremilast 30 mg (therapeutic exposure) or 50 mg (supratherapeutic exposure) was administered twice daily for 9 doses. A placebo control was used to ensure double-blind treatment of apremilast, and an open-label, single dose of moxifloxacin 400 mg was administered as a positive control. ECGs were measured using 24-hour digital Holter monitoring. Results: The two-sided 98% confidence intervals (CIs) for ΔΔQTcI of moxifloxacin completely exceeded 5 ms 2 – 4 hours postdose. For both apremilast dose studies, the least-squares mean ΔΔQTcI was < 1 ms at all time points, and the upper limit of two-sided 90% CIs was < 10 ms. There were no QT/QTc values > 480 ms or a change from baseline > 60 ms. Exploratory evaluation of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic data showed no trend between the changes in QT/QTc interval and the concentration of apremilast or its major metabolites M12 and M14. Conclusions: Apremilast did not prolong the QT interval and appears to be safe and well tolerated up to doses of 50 mg twice daily. PMID:27285466

Grenvillian magmatism in the northern Virginia Blue Ridge: Petrologic implications of episodic granitic magma production and the significance of postorogenic A-type charnockite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tollo, R.P.; Aleinikoff, J.N.; Borduas, E.A.; Dickin, A.P.; McNutt, R.H.; Fanning, C.M.

2006-01-01

Grenvillian (1.2 to 1.0 Ga) plutonic rocks in northern Virginia preserve evidence of episodic, mostly granitic magmatism that spanned more than 150 million years (m.y.) of crustal reworking. Crystallization ages determined by sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U-Pb isotopic analyses of zircon and monazite, combined with results from previous studies, define three periods of magmatic activity at 1183-1144 Ma (Magmatic Interval I), 1120-1111 Ma (Magmatic Interval II), and 1078-1028 Ma (Magmatic Interval III). Magmatic activity produced dominantly tholeiitic plutons composed of (1) low-silica charnockite, (2) leucogranite, (3) non-leucocratic granitoid (with or without orthopyroxene (opx)), and (4) intermediate biotite-rich granitoid. Field, petrologic, geochemical, and geochronologic data indicate that charnockite and non-charnockitic granitoids were closely associated in both space and time, indicating that presence of opx is related to magmatic conditions, not metamorphic grade. Geochemical and Nd isotopic data, combined with results from experimental studies, indicate that leucogranites (Magmatic Intervals I and III) and non-leucocratic granitoids (Magmatic Intervals I and II) were derived from parental magmas produced by either a high degree of partial melting of isotopically evolved tonalitic sources or less advanced partial melting of dominantly tonalitic sources that also included a more mafic component. Post-orogenic, circa 1050 Ma low-silica charnockite is characterized by A-type compositional affinity including high FeOt/(FeOt + MgO), Ga/Al, Zr, Nb, Y, and Zn, and was derived from parental magmas produced by partial melting of potassic mafic sources in the lower crust. Linear geochemical trends defined by leucogranites, low-silica charnockite, and biotite-rich monzogranite emplaced during Magmatic Interval III reflect differences in source-related characteristics; these features do not represent an igneous fractionation sequence. A compositional gap between circa 1160 Ma magnesian low-silica charnockite and penecontemporaneous higher silica lithologies likewise precludes a fractionation relationship among plutons intruded during Magmatic Interval I. Correspondence in timing of magmatic activity between the Blue Ridge and neighboring Mesoproterozoic terranes underscores the widespread nature of Grenvillian processes in the region.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The effect of time on CPR and automated external defibrillator skills in the Public Access Defibrillation Trial

PubMed Central

Christenson, Jim; Nafziger, Sarah; Compton, Scott; Vijayaraghavan, Kris; Slater, Brian; Ledingham, Robert; Powell, Judy; McBurnie, Mary Ann

2009-01-01

Background The time to skill deterioration between primary training/retraining and further retraining in Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillation (AED) for lay-persons is unclear. The Public Access Defibrillation (PAD) Trial was a multi-center randomized controlled trial evaluating survival after CPR-only vs. CPR+AED delivered by onsite non-medical volunteer responders in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Aims This sub-study evaluated the relationship of time between primary training/retraining and further retraining on volunteer performance during pretest AED and CPR skill evaluation. Methods Volunteers at 1260 facilities in 24 North American regions underwent training/retraining according to facility randomization, which included an initial session and a refresher session at approximately 6 months. Before the next retraining, a CPR and AED skill test was completed for 2729 volunteers. Primary outcome for the study was assessment of global competence of CPR or AED performance (adequate vs not adequate) using Chi-square tests for trends by time interval (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Confirmatory (GEE) logistic regression analysis, adjusted for site and potential confounders. Results The proportion of volunteers judged to be competent did not diminish by interval (3,6,9,12 months) for either CPR or AED skills. After adjusting for site and potential confounders, longer intervals before to further retraining was associated with a slightly lower likelihood of performing adequate CPR but not with AED scores. Conclusions After primary training/retraining, the CPR skills of targeted lay responders deteriorate nominally but 80% remain competent up to one year. AED skills do not significantly deteriorate and 90% of volunteers remain competent up to one year. PMID:17303309

Use of Self-Matching to Control for Stable Patient Characteristics While Addressing Time-Varying Confounding on Treatment Effect: A Case Study of Older Intensive Care Patients.

PubMed

Han, Ling; Pisani, M A; Araujo, K L B; Allore, Heather G

Exposure-crossover design offers a non-experimental option to control for stable baseline confounding through self-matching while examining causal effect of an exposure on an acute outcome. This study extends this approach to longitudinal data with repeated measures of exposure and outcome using data from a cohort of 340 older medical patients in an intensive care unit (ICU). The analytic sample included 92 patients who received ≥1 dose of haloperidol, an antipsychotic medication often used for patients with delirium. Exposure-crossover design was implemented by sampling the 3-day time segments prior ( Induction) and posterior ( Subsequent) to each treatment episode of receiving haloperidol. In the full cohort, there was a trend of increasing delirium severity scores (Mean±SD: 4.4±1.7) over the course of the ICU stay. After exposure-crossover sampling, the delirium severity score decreased from the Induction (4.9) to the Subsequent (4.1) intervals, with the treatment episode falling in-between (4.5). Based on a GEE Poisson model accounting for self-matching and within-subject correlation, the unadjusted mean delirium severity scores was -0.55 (95% CI: -1.10, -0.01) points lower for the Subsequent than the Induction intervals. The association diminished by 32% (-0.38, 95%CI: -0.99, 0.24) after adjusting only for ICU confounding, while being slightly increased by 7% (-0.60, 95%CI: -1.15, -0.04) when adjusting only for baseline characteristics. These results suggest that longitudinal exposure-crossover design is feasible and capable of partially removing stable baseline confounding through self-matching. Loss of power due to eliminating treatment-irrelevant person-time and uncertainty around allocating person-time to comparison intervals remain methodological challenges.

Risk of metachronous ovarian cancer after ovarian conservation in young women with stage I cervical cancer.

PubMed

Matsuo, Koji; Machida, Hiroko; Horowitz, Max P; Shahzad, Mian M K; Guntupalli, Saketh R; Roman, Lynda D; Wright, Jason D

2017-11-01

While there is an increasing trend of ovarian conservation at the time of surgical treatment for young women with stage I cervical cancer, the risk for subsequent ovarian cancer after ovarian conservation has not been well studied. We sought to examine the incidence of and risk factors for metachronous ovarian cancer among young women with stage I cervical cancer who had ovarian conservation at the time of hysterectomy. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program was used to identify women aged <50 years who underwent hysterectomy with ovarian conservation for stage I cervical cancer from 1983 through 2013 (n = 4365). Time-dependent analysis was performed for ovarian cancer risk after cervical cancer diagnosis. Mean age at cervical cancer diagnosis was 37 years, and the majority of patients had stage IA disease (68.2%) and squamous histology (72.9%). Median follow-up time was 10.8 years, and there were 13 women who developed metachronous ovarian cancer. The 10- and 20-year cumulative incidences of metachronous ovarian cancer were 0.2% (95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.4) and 0.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.8), respectively. Mean age at the time of diagnosis of metachronous ovarian cancer was 47.5 years, and stage III-IV disease was seen in 55.6%. Age (≥45 vs <45 years, hazard ratio, 4.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-15.4; P = .018), ethnicity (non-white vs white, hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-14.0; P = .009), cervical cancer histology (adenocarcinoma or adenosquamous vs squamous, hazard ratio, 3.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-10.5; P = .028), and adjuvant radiotherapy use (yes vs no, hazard ratio, 3.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-13.4; P = .034) were significantly associated with metachronous ovarian cancer risk. The presence of multiple risk factors was associated with a significantly increased risk of metachronous ovarian cancer compared to the no risk factor group: 1 risk factor (hazard ratio range, 2.96-8.43), 2 risk factors (hazard ratio range, 16.6-31.0), and 3-4 risk factors (hazard ratio range, 62.3-109), respectively. Metachronous ovarian cancer risk after ovarian conservation for women with stage I cervical cancer is <1%. Older age, non-white ethnicity, adenocarcinoma or adenosquamous histology, and adjuvant radiotherapy may be associated with an increased metachronous ovarian cancer risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How Well Do They Convert? Trending ASAPS Presentations to Publication From 1995-2010.

PubMed

Williams, Sacha; Pirlamarla, Aneesh; Rahal, William; Weichman, Katie; Garfein, Evan; Jelks, Glenn; Tepper, Oren

2017-02-01

The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ASAPS) sponsors an annual conference that promotes education, advocacy, and care. There, researchers deliver abstracts as podium and poster presentations. Subsequently, ASAPS encourages submitting these research findings for publication. Yet, many never become published manuscripts. To quantify the conversion rates of oral abstract presentations to publication from 1995 to 2010. Secondary objectives included evaluating trends in presentations, publications, time to publication, and published journal distribution. Comprehensive literature search in PubMed cross-referencing oral abstract presentations and determining peer-reviewed publication status. The conversion rate and time to publication was calculated. A total of 569 oral presentations met the inclusion criteria. The mean annual presentations was 35.6. A total of 360 presentations became journal publications. The mean annual publications was 22.5. The mean conversion rate was 63.3% (R 2 , 0.1271; P-value of .23). The mean time to publication was 19.8 months. Most publications occurred within two years of presentation (87.5%). Publications appeared in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (PRS, 48.6%), Aesthetic Surgery Journal (ASJ, 27.8%), Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (APS, 5.6%), Annals of Plastic Surgery (AnnPS, 4.2%), Clinics in Plastic Surgery (CPS, 3.9%), and other journals (10%). Trending ASJ publications vs other journals in five year intervals demonstrated an increase from 18.7% to 58.8%. While the number of presentations and publications declined, the time to publication, and conversion rate remained largely the same. Despite its short existence, ASJ became the predominant journal publishing ASAPS abstracts by the end of the study period. © 2016 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management. PMID:29787562

A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade.

PubMed

Coops, Nicholas C; Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A; White, Joanne C; Bolton, Douglas K

2018-01-01

Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management.

Climate effects on historic bluefin tuna captures in the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganzedo, Unai; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Caballero-Alfonso, Ángela M.; Faria, Sérgio H.; Li, Jianke; Castro-Hernández, José J.

2016-06-01

Historical capture records of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus; BFT hereafter) from the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediterranean show pronounced short- and long-term fluctuations. Some of these fluctuations are believed to be associated with biological and ecological process, as well as distinct climate factors. For the period of study (1700-1936) of this work, we found a long-term increasing trend in the BFT captures and in the climate variables. After applying a statistical time series analysis of relevant climate variables and long-term tuna capture records, it is highlighted the role played by sea-surface temperature (SST) on bluefin population variations. The most relevant result of this study is the strong correlation found between the total solar irradiance (TSI) - an external component of the climate system - and bluefin captures. The solar irradiance could have affected storminess during the period under study, mainly during the time interval 1700-1810. We suggest physico-biological mechanisms that explain the BFT catch fluctuations in two consecutive time intervals. In the first period, from 1700 to 1810, this mechanism could be high storm and wind activity, which would have made the BFT fisheries activities more difficult by reducing their efficacy. In contrast, during the interval from 1810 to 1907, the effects of wind and storms could be on spawning behaviour and larval ecology, and hence on year class strength, rather than on fish or fisherman's behaviour. These findings open up a range of new lines of enquiry that are relevant for both, fisheries and climate change research.

Hydrocarbon reservoirs of Gulf of Mexico: spatial and temporal distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, P.K.

1988-02-01

The statistical distribution of over 12,000 producible hydrocarbon reservoirs from various biostratigraphic intervals of the Gulf of Mexico is presented. The average number, thickness, volume, subsurface depth, and ecozone of depositional environments of the reservoirs are grouped according to biostratigraphic intervals, trends, and geographic areas. The upper Pliocene and Pleistocene reservoirs account for more than 77% of the total number. Within the Miocene trend, Bigenerina H in the western Gulf and Bigenerina A and Bigenerina 2 in the central Gulf show significant concentration of reservoirs. The average depth of production for all trends gets deeper, both from west and east,more » toward Ship Shoal-South Timbalier areas. The average thickness varies slightly between trends; however, variation between areas is more significant. A significant majority of the reservoirs of all trends in the entire Gulf is reported from the outer shelf-upper slope ecozones (E3 and E4). According to volume, the E3-E5 reservoirs can be classified into three groups; (a) larger than 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, (b) 5000 to 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, and (c) smaller than 5000 acre-ft/reservoir. The reservoirs of the middle Miocene trend of the central Gulf and lower Miocene of the western Gulf fall into group a, those of other trends of the western Gulf into group b, and the post-Amphistegina E reservoirs of the central Gulf into group c. Information obtained from this study, in combination with regional and detailed geological information, provides valuable input in further exploration of the matured shelf and scantily explored slope of the Gulf of Mexico.« less

Validation of algorithms to determine incidence of Hirschsprung disease in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study using health administrative data

PubMed Central

Nasr, Ahmed; Sullivan, Katrina J; Chan, Emily W; Wong, Coralie A; Benchimol, Eric I

2017-01-01

Objective Incidence rates of Hirschsprung disease (HD) vary by geographical region, yet no recent population-based estimate exists for Canada. The objective of our study was to validate and use health administrative data from Ontario, Canada to describe trends in incidence of HD between 1991 and 2013. Study design To identify children with HD we tested algorithms consisting of a combination of diagnostic, procedural, and intervention codes against the reference standard of abstracted clinical charts from a tertiary pediatric hospital. The algorithm with the highest positive predictive value (PPV) that could maintain high sensitivity was applied to health administrative data from April 31, 1991 to March 31, 2014 (fiscal years 1991–2013) to determine annual incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated using Poisson regression, controlling for sex as a covariate. Results The selected algorithm was highly sensitive (93.5%) and specific (>99.9%) with excellent predictive abilities (PPV 89.6% and negative predictive value >99.9%). Using the algorithm, a total of 679 patients diagnosed with HD were identified in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. The overall incidence during this time was 2.05 per 10,000 live births (or 1 in 4,868 live births). The incidence did not change significantly over time (odds ratio 0.998, 95% confidence interval 0.983–1.013, p = 0.80). Conclusion Ontario health administrative data can be used to accurately identify cases of HD and describe trends in incidence. There has not been a significant change in HD incidence over time in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. PMID:29180902

Trends in incidence of primary brain cancer in New Zealand, 1995 to 2010.

PubMed

Kim, Stella J-H; Ioannides, Sally J; Elwood, J Mark

2015-04-01

Case-control studies have linked mobile phone use to an increased risk of glioma in the most exposed brain areas, the temporal and parietal lobes, although inconsistently. We examined time trends in the incidence rates of brain malignancies in New Zealand from 1995 to 2010. Data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry was used to calculate incidence rates of primary brain cancer, by age, gender, morphology and anatomical site. Log-linear regression analysis was used to assess trends in the annual incidence of primary brain cancer; annual percentage changes and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. No consistent increases in all primary brain cancer, glioma, or temporal or parietal lobe glioma were seen. At ages 10-69, the incidence of all brain cancers declined significantly. Incidence of glioma increased at ages over 70. In New Zealand, there has been no consistent increase in incidence rates of primary brain cancers. An increase in glioma at ages over 70 is likely to be due to improvements in diagnosis. As with any such studies, a small effect, or one with a latent period of more than 10 to 15 years, cannot be excluded. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

[Mortality from contact with poisonous snakes and lizards in Mexico from 1979 to 2003].

PubMed

Frayre-Torres, María José; Sevilla-Godínez, Elizabeth; Orozco-Valerio, Maria de Jesús; Armas, Jesús; Celis, Alfredo

2006-01-01

To describe the trend of standardized mortality by contact with poisonous snakes and lizards in Mexico from 1979 to 2003. We describe the standardized mortality trend by contact with poisonous snakes and lizards occurring in Mexico from 1979 to 2003, and report the mortality data bases from the INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática). We determined frequencies, percentages, mortality rates, standardized mortality rates and mortality relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. The general trend shows a statistically significant descent of 63.8%. The highest mortality rate within the 2000-2003 period was reported in Quintana Roo (7.47/1,000,000), Oaxaca (4.01/1,000,000), Veracruz (1.56/1,000,000), Chiapas (1.48/1,000,000), Campeche (1.43/1,000,000) and Yucatan (1.29/1,000,000). The groups with the highest risk are those older than 60 years and males. In spite of the detected decrease in mortality, the contact with poisonous snakes and lizards still is a public health problem in Mexico. As timely treatment saves lives, it is necessary to include and offer treatment in all emergency units of the country.

Data series embedding and scale invariant statistics.

PubMed

Michieli, I; Medved, B; Ristov, S

2010-06-01

Data sequences acquired from bio-systems such as human gait data, heart rate interbeat data, or DNA sequences exhibit complex dynamics that is frequently described by a long-memory or power-law decay of autocorrelation function. One way of characterizing that dynamics is through scale invariant statistics or "fractal-like" behavior. For quantifying scale invariant parameters of physiological signals several methods have been proposed. Among them the most common are detrended fluctuation analysis, sample mean variance analyses, power spectral density analysis, R/S analysis, and recently in the realm of the multifractal approach, wavelet analysis. In this paper it is demonstrated that embedding the time series data in the high-dimensional pseudo-phase space reveals scale invariant statistics in the simple fashion. The procedure is applied on different stride interval data sets from human gait measurements time series (Physio-Bank data library). Results show that introduced mapping adequately separates long-memory from random behavior. Smaller gait data sets were analyzed and scale-free trends for limited scale intervals were successfully detected. The method was verified on artificially produced time series with known scaling behavior and with the varying content of noise. The possibility for the method to falsely detect long-range dependence in the artificially generated short range dependence series was investigated. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

2000-01-01

We adapted a removal model to estimate detection probability during point count surveys. The model assumes one factor influencing detection during point counts is the singing frequency of birds. This may be true for surveys recording forest songbirds when most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. We used time intervals of 2, 5, and 10 min to develop a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds during such surveys. We applied this technique to data from bird surveys conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. The overall detection probability for all birds was 75%. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren and Acadian Flycatcher had high detection probabilities (about 90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. This method of estimating detectability during point count surveys offers a promising new approach to using count data to address questions of the bird abundance, density, and population trends.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas of 33 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Gotsens, Mercè; Palència, Laia; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A; Ballesta, Mónica; Calvo, Montse; Cirera, Lluís; Daponte, Antonio; Domínguez-Berjón, Felicitas; Gandarillas, Ana; Goñi, Natividad Izco; Martos, Carmen; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Nolasco, Andreu; Salmerón, Diego; Taracido, Margarita; Borrell, Carme

2016-07-29

In Spain, several ecological studies have analyzed trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from all causes in urban areas over time. However, the results of these studies are quite heterogeneous finding, in general, that inequalities decreased, or remained stable. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (1) to identify trends in geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality in the census tracts of 33 Spanish cities between the two periods 1996-1998 and 2005-2007; (2) to analyse trends in the relationship between these geographical inequalities and socioeconomic deprivation; and (3) to obtain an overall measure which summarises the relationship found in each one of the cities and to analyse its variation over time. Ecological study of trends with 2 cross-sectional cuts, corresponding to two periods of analysis: 1996-1998 and 2005-2007. Units of analysis were census tracts of the 33 Spanish cities. A deprivation index calculated for each census tracts in all cities was included as a covariate. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate smoothed Standardized Mortality Ratios (sSMR) by each census tract and period. The geographical distribution of these sSMR was represented using maps of septiles. In addition, two different Bayesian hierarchical models were used to measure the association between all-cause mortality and the deprivation index in each city and period, and by sex: (1) including the association as a fixed effect for each city; (2) including the association as random effects. In both models the data spatial structure can be controlled within each city. The association in each city was measured using relative risks (RR) and their 95 % credible intervals (95 % CI). For most cities and in both sexes, mortality rates decline over time. For women, the mortality and deprivation patterns are similar in the first period, while in the second they are different for most cities. For men, RRs remain stable over time in 29 cities, in 3 diminish and in 1 increase. For women, in 30 cities, a non-significant change over time in RR is observed. However, in 4 cities RR diminishes. In overall terms, inequalities decrease (with a probability of 0.9) in both men (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15 in the 1st period; RR = 1.11, 95 % CI = 1.09-1.13 in the 2nd period) and women (RR = 1.07, 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08 in the 1st period; RR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06 in the 2nd period). In the future, it is important to conduct further trend studies, allowing to monitoring trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality and to identify (among other things) temporal factors that may influence these inequalities.

Trends of 30-day mortality and morbidities in endovascular repair of intact abdominal aortic aneurysm during the last decade.

PubMed

Yin, Kanhua; Locham, Satinderjit S; Schermerhorn, Marc L; Malas, Mahmoud B

2018-06-15

Significant research efforts have been made to improve the safety and efficacy of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in treating abdominal aortic aneurysm. This study aimed to examine the trends of perioperative outcomes of EVAR in the recent decade using a national validated database. Patients who underwent EVAR for intact abdominal aortic aneurysm between 2006 and 2015 were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and divided into early (2006-2010) and late (2011-2015) periods. The primary outcome of the study was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included operative time, length of hospital stay, and 30-day major complications (renal, cardiopulmonary, and wound infection). A total of 30,076 patients were identified, with 11,539 in the early period and 18,537 in the late period. The 30-day mortality was kept at a low level in both periods (1.2% vs 1.2%; P = .98), whereas both the mean operation time (155.5 ± 72.6 minutes vs 141.9 ± 73.7 minutes; P < .001) and length of hospital stay (3.24 ± 5.32 days vs 2.81 ± 4.30 days; P < .001) were decreased in the late period. The 30-day major complication rate was reduced by 19.6% (5.1% vs 4.1%; P < .0001), with decreased renal failure (1.4% vs 1.0%; P = .003), cardiopulmonary complications (2.2% vs 1.7%; P = .006), and wound complications (2.5% vs 1.8%; P < .001). All the decreasing trends of mortality, any 30-day complication, and each type of major complication were statistically significant. Being treated in the late period was independently associated with decreased 30-day major complications (odds ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.87; P < .001), and this effect was confirmed in the propensity score-matched cohort (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.90; P < .001). Although the 30-day mortality remains similar, postoperative complications in EVAR have decreased significantly during the recent decade. The continuous improvement in endograft technology and surgical skills has resulted in decreased operative time, marked reduction in surgical complications, and shorter hospital length of stay after endovascular repair. Copyright © 2018 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On-line image analysis of the stromboli volcanic activity recorded by the surveillance camera helps the forecasting of the major eruptive events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristaldi, A.; Coltelli, M.; Mangiagli, S.; Pecora, E.

2003-04-01

The typical activity of Stromboli consists of intermittent mild explosions lasting a few seconds, which take place at different vents and at variable intervals, the most common time interval being 10-20 minutes. However, the routine activity can be interrupted by more violent, paroxysmal explosions, that eject m-sized scoriaceous bombs and lava blocks to a distance of several hundreds of meters from the craters, endangering the numerous tourists that watch the spectacular activity from the volcano's summit located about two hundreds meters from the active vents. On average, 1-2 paroxysmal explosions occurred per year over the past century, but this statistic may be underestimated in absence of continuous monitoring. For this reason from summer 1996 a remote surveillance camera works on Stromboli recording continuously the volcanic activity. It is located on Pizzo Sopra la Fossa, 100 metres above the crater terrace where are the active vents. Using image analysis we seeks to identify any change of the explosive activity trend that could precede a particular eruptive event, like paroxysmal explosions, fire fountains, lava flows. From the day of the camera installation up to present 12 paroxysmal events and lava flows occurred. The analysis include the counting of the explosions occurred at the different craters and the parameterization in classes of intensity for each explosion on the base of tephra dispersion and kinetics energy. The plot of dissipated energy by each crater versus time shows a cyclic behavior with max and min of explosive activity ranging from a few days to a month. Often the craters show opposite trends so when the activity decreases in a crater, increases in the other. Before every paroxysmal explosions recorded, the crater that produced the event decreased and then stopped its activity from a few days to weeks before. The other crater tried to compensate increasing its activity and when it declined the paroxysmal explosion occurred suddenly at the former site. From September 2001 an on-line image analyzer called VAMOS (Volcanic Activity MOnitoring System) operates detection and classification of explosive events in quasi real-time. The system has automatically recorded and analyzed the change in the energetic trend that preceded the 20 October 2001 paroxysmal explosion that killed a woman and the strong explosive activity that preceded the onset of 28 December 2002 lava flow eruption.

Long-term coffee consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2014-02-11

Considerable controversy exists on the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1 279 804 participants and 36 352 CVD cases. A nonlinear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity=0.09, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median, 0 cups per day), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.03) for the highest category (median, 5 cups per day) category, 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.90) for the second highest category (median, 3.5 cups per day), and 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.94) for the third highest category (median, 1.5 cups per day). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was nonlinearly associated with both coronary heart disease (P for heterogeneity=0.001, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001) and stroke (P for heterogeneity=0.07, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001; P for trend differences >0.05) risks. A nonlinear association between coffee consumption and CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups per day, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk.

Understanding adolescent personality pathology from growth trajectories of childhood oddity.

PubMed

De Clercq, Barbara; Verbeke, Lize; De Caluwé, Elien; Vercruysse, Tom; Hofmans, Joeri

2017-10-01

Research on developmental trajectories of early maladaptive features for understanding later personality disorders (PDs) is increasingly recognized as an important study area. The course of early odd features is highly relevant in this regard, as only a few researchers have addressed childhood oddity in the context of emerging PDs. Using latent growth modeling, the current study explores growth parameters of odd features in a mixed sample of Flemish community and referred children (N = 485) across three measurement waves with 1-year time intervals. Personality pathology was assessed at a fourth assessment point in adolescence. Beyond a general declining trend in oddity characteristics, the results demonstrated that both an early onset and an increasing trend of oddity-related characteristics over time are independent predictors of adolescent PDs. Childhood oddity tends to be the most manifest precursor for PDs with a core oddity feature (i.e., the schizotypal and borderline PD), but also appears to predict most of the other DSM-5 PDs. Results are discussed from an overarching developmental framework on PDs (Cicchetti, 2014), specifically focusing on the principle of multifinality. From a clinical perspective, the significance of increasing or steady-high childhood oddity trajectories for adolescent PDs highlights the relevance of systematic screening processes across time.

Trends of Second Primary Malignancy in Patients with Thyroid Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Israel.

PubMed

Izkhakov, Elena; Barchana, Micha; Liphshitz, Irena; Silverman, Barbara G; Stern, Naftali; Keinan-Boker, Lital

2017-06-01

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine malignancy. TC patients have a good prognosis and a low disease-related mortality rate. Since such patients are often young, they may be at a higher risk for a second primary malignancy (SPM). This study sought to determine the incidence, risk, and types of SPM between 1980 and 2011, and to assess SPM trends over time among Israeli TC patients. Data were derived from the Israel National Cancer Registry. Primary TC patients diagnosed during 1980-2009 were followed up for SPM incidence until December 31, 2011. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of observed to expected SPM (based on the general population rates) were calculated using Poisson regression. Analyses were stratified by time period of initial TC diagnosis (1980-1995 and 1996-2009). A total of 11,538 TC patients were identified. After exclusion of 107 duplicate cases, records of 1032 patients with SPM were analyzed (an SPM incidence of 8.9%). SIRs for all-site SPMs were 1.23 [confidence interval 1.08-1.35] for males and 1.19 [confidence interval 1.10-1.27] for females. SIRs for tumors of the urinary system and prostate were significantly elevated in males, as were SIRs for tumors of the brain, urinary system, breast, and lung in females. Variables associated with increased risk of developing SPMs included a younger age at TC diagnosis, a shorter latency period, being born in Asia/Africa for both sexes, and being born in Israel for females. Compared with the general population, a subanalysis by TC diagnosis during 1980-1995 and 1996-2009 disclosed a higher SPM incidence for the latter time period in males and for both time periods, with a slightly higher SIR for the latter time period in females. The overall risk of SPM in Israeli TC patients was significantly greater for both sexes compared with the general population, thus identifying TC patients as a high-risk group and calling for caretakers to apply specific follow-up guidelines.

Disparities and Trends in Door-to-Needle Time: The FL-PR CReSD Study (Florida-Puerto Rico Collaboration to Reduce Stroke Disparities).

PubMed

Oluwole, Sofia A; Wang, Kefeng; Dong, Chuanhui; Ciliberti-Vargas, Maria A; Gutierrez, Carolina M; Yi, Li; Romano, Jose G; Perez, Enmanuel; Tyson, Brittany Ann; Ayodele, Maranatha; Asdaghi, Negar; Gardener, Hannah; Rose, David Z; Garcia, Enid J; Zevallos, Juan Carlos; Foster, Dianne; Robichaux, Mary; Waddy, Salina P; Sacco, Ralph L; Rundek, Tatjana

2017-08-01

In the United States, about half of acute ischemic stroke patients treated with tPA (tissue-type plasminogen activator) receive treatment within 60 minutes of hospital arrival. We aimed to determine the proportion of patients receiving tPA within 60 minutes (door-to-needle time [DTNT] ≤60) and 45 minutes (DTNT ≤45) of hospital arrival by race/ethnicity and sex and to identify temporal trends in DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45. Among 65 654 acute ischemic stroke admissions in the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke-funded FL-PR CReSD study (Florida-Puerto Rico Collaboration to Reduce Stroke Disparities) from 2010 to 2015, we included 6181 intravenous tPA-treated cases (9.4%). Generalized estimating equations were used to determine predictors of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45. DTNT ≤60 was achieved in 42% and DTNT ≤45 in 18% of cases. After adjustment, women less likely received DTNT ≤60 (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.92) and DTNT ≤45 (odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.93). Compared with Whites, Blacks less likely had DTNT ≤45 during off hours (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.98). Achievement of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45 was highest in South Florida (50%, 23%) and lowest in West Central Florida (28%, 11%). In the FL-PR CReSD, achievement of DTNT ≤60 and DTNT ≤45 remains low. Compared with Whites, Blacks less likely receive tPA treatment within 45 minutes during off hours. Treatment within 60 and 45 minutes is lower in women compared with men and lowest in West Central Florida compared with other Florida regions and Puerto Rico. Further research is needed to identify reasons for delayed thrombolytic treatment in women and Blacks and factors contributing to regional disparities in DTNT. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Astronomical Pacing of Relative Sea Level through OAE2 from the Expanded SH#1 Core, Southern Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M. M.; Sageman, B. B.; Oakes, R. L.; Bralower, T. J.; Parker, A. L.; Leckie, R. M.

2017-12-01

Proximal marine strata of the North American Western Interior Basin (WIB) preserve a rich record of faunal turnover linked to Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2 - 94 Ma), a pronounced Late Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbation interpreted to reflect global warming and possible ocean acidification. To develop a more robust synthesis of paleobiologic and geochemical datasets spanning this major Earth-life transition, we drilled a 131-meter core (SH#1) on the Kaiparowits Plateau of southern Utah, recovering the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary (CTB) interval of the Tropic Shale. A 17.5-meter positive excursion in high-resolution bulk carbon isotope chemostratigraphy (δ13Corg) of SH#1 characterizes the most expanded and detailed record of OAE2 recovered from the WIB. Additionally, we detect statistically significant evidence for astronomical cycles in a companion δ13Ccarb dataset, using advanced spectral techniques (evolutive average spectral misfit). Bandpass filtering and tracing of the short eccentricity cycle (97 ka) permit development of a floating astronomical time scale (ATS) for the CTB interval. The presence of radioisotopic dates within the time series provides an independent check on astrochronologic interpretations. We attribute some depleted δ13Ccarb values in SH#1, which cyclically punctuate the OAE2 excursion, to preferential carbonate diagenesis driven by periodic sea level oscillations. Accordingly, major flooding surfaces in SH#1 correlate well to an existing sequence stratigraphic framework from shoreface facies of the Markagunt Plateau ( 100 km west). Comparing the ATS and sequence stratigraphic surfaces in SH#1, we observe that stable eccentricity cycles (405 ka) pace stratigraphic sequences and associated saw-toothed trends in sedimentation rate estimates through OAE2. Furthermore, short eccentricity cycles pace nested parasequences. These results confirm astronomical and, therefore, climatic pacing of relative sea level trends during OAE2 in the WIB. The ATS, δ13C chemostratigraphy, and basin-wide correlation of the CTB interval provide an expanded, temporally-resolved record of OAE2 within the chronostratigraphic framework of the WIB, and help to resolve rates of paleobiologic and paleoenvironmental change in the context of oscillating relative sea levels.

A Prospective Observational Comparison Between Arm and Wrist Blood Pressure During Scheduled Cesarean Delivery.

PubMed

Sebbag, Ilana; Massey, Simon R; Albert, Arianne Y K; Dube, Alison; Gunka, Vit; Douglas, M Joanne

2015-09-01

Shivering is common during cesarean delivery (CD) under neuraxial anesthesia and may disrupt the measurement of noninvasive blood pressure (BP). BP measured at the wrist may be less affected by shivering. There have been no studies comparing trends in BP measured on the upper arm and wrist. We hypothesized that wrist systolic blood pressure (sBP) would accurately trend with upper arm sBP measurements (agree within a limit of ±10%) in parturients undergoing elective CD under spinal anesthesia or combined spinal-epidural anesthesia. After initiation of spinal anesthesia, BP measurements were obtained simultaneously from the upper arm and wrist on opposite arms. The interval between measurements was 1 to 2 minutes, and data were collected for 20 minutes or until delivery. The primary outcome was agreement in dynamic changes in sBP measurements between the upper arm and the wrist. Bland-Altman plots indicating the levels of agreement between the methods were drawn for baseline measurements, over multiple measurements, and over multiple measurements on percentage change from baseline. Forty-nine patients were recruited and completed the study. The wrist sBP tended to overestimate the upper sBP for both baseline data (sBP bias = 13.4 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval = +10.4 to +16.4 mm Hg) and data obtained over multiple measurements (sBP bias = 12.8 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval = +9.3 to +16.3 mm Hg). For change in sBP from baseline over multiple measurements, the mean difference between the wrist and the arm sBP was -0.2 percentage points (99% limits of agreement -25 to +25 percentage points). The wrist measurement overestimated the reading relative to the upper arm measurement for multiple measurements over time. However, when the time series for each subject was examined for percentage change from baseline, the 2 methods mirrored each other in most cases. Nevertheless, our hypothesis was rejected as the limits of agreement were higher than ±10%. This finding suggests that wrist BP may not be an accurate method of detecting hypotension or hypertension during spinal or combined spinal-epidural anesthesia for CD.

Evaluation of Growing Season Milestones, Using Eddy Covariance Time-Series of Net Ecosystem Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastorello, G.; Faybishenko, B.; Poindexter, C.; Menzer, O.; Agarwal, D.; Papale, D.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2014-12-01

Common methods for determining timing of plants' developmental events, such as direct observation and remote sensing of NDVI, usually produce data of temporal resolution on the order of one week or more. This limitation can make observing subtle trends across years difficult. The goal of this presentation is to demonstrate a conceptual approach and a computational technique to quantify seasonal, annual and long-term phenological indices and patterns, based on continuous eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at eddy covariance towers in the AmeriFlux network. Using a comprehensive time series analysis of NEE fluxes in different climatic zones, we determined multiple characteristics (and their confidence intervals) of the growing season including: the initiation day—the day when canopy photosynthesis development starts, the photosynthesis stabilization day - the day when the development process of canopy photosynthesis starts to slow down and gradually moves toward stabilization, and the growing season effective termination day. We also determined the spring photosynthetic development velocity and the fall photosynthetic development velocity. The results of calculations using NEE were compared with those from temperature and precipitation data measured at the same AmeriFlux tower stations, as well as with the in-situ directly observed phenological records. The results of calculations of phenological indices from the NEE time-series collected at AmeriFlux sites can be used to constrain the application of other time- and labor-intensive sensing methods and to reduce the uncertainty in identifying trends in the timing of phenological indices.

A 22,000 year record of changing redox conditions from the Peruvian Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ): benthic foraminifera approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdem, Z.; Schönfeld, J.; Glock, N.

2015-12-01

Benthic foraminifera have been used as proxies for the prevailing conditions at the sediment-water interface. Their distribution patterns are thought to facilitate reconstruction of past environmental conditions. Variations of bottom water oxygenation can be traced by the downcore distribution of benthic foraminifera and some of their morphological characters. Being one of the strongest and most pronounced OMZs in today's world oceans, the Peruvian OMZ is a key area to study such variations in relation with changing climate. Spatial changes or an extension of the OMZ through time and space are investigated using sediment cores from the lower OMZ boundary. We focus on time intervals Late Holocene, Early Holocene, Bølling Allerød, Heinrich-Stadial 1 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to investigate changes in bottom-water oxygen and redox conditions. The recent distributions of benthic foraminiferal assemblages provide background data for an interpretation of the past conditions. Living benthic foraminiferal faunas from the Peruvian margin are structured with the prevailing bottom-water oxygen concentrations today (Mallon et al., 2012). Downcore distribution of benthic foraminiferal assemblages showed fluctuations in the abundance of the indicator species depicting variations and a decreasing trend in bottom water oxygen conditions since the LGM. In addition, changes in bottom-water oxygen and nitrate concentrations are reconstructed for the same time intervals by the pore density in tests of Planulina limbata and Bolivina spissa (Glock et al., 2011), respectively. The pore densities also indicate a trend of higher oxygen and nitrate concentrations in the LGM compared to the Holocene. Combination of both proxies provide information on past bottom-water conditions and changes of oxygen concentrations for the Peruvian margin. Glock et al., 2011: Environmental influences on the pore density of Bolivina spissa (Cushman), Journal of Foraminiferal Research, v. 41, no. 1, p. 22-32. Mallon et al., 2012: The response of benthic foraminifera to low-oxygen conditions of the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone, in ANOXIA, pp.305-322.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Impaired clinical utility of sequential patient GEM blood gas measurements associated with calibration schedule.

PubMed

Cembrowski, George S; Xu, Qian; Cembrowski, Adam R; Mei, Junyi; Sadrzadeh, Hossein

2017-11-01

Within- and/or between-instrument variation may falsely indicate patient trends or obscure real trends. We employ a methodology that transforms sequential intra-patient results into estimates of biologic and analytic variation. We previously derived realistic biologic variation (s b ) of blood gas (BG) and hematology analytes. We extend this methodology to derive the imprecision of two GEM 4000 BG analyzers. A laboratory data repository provided arterial BG, electrolyte and metabolite results generated by two GEM 4000s on ICU patients in 2012-2013. We tabulated consecutive pairs of intra-patient results separated by increasing time interval between consecutive tests. The average between pair variations were regressed against time with the y-intercept representing the sum of the biologic variation and short term analytic variation: y o 2 =s b 2 +s a 2 . Using an equivalent equation for the Radiometer ABL, the imprecision of the two GEMs was calculated: s aGEM =(y oGEM 2 -y oABL 2 +s aABL 2 ) 1/2 . This analysis was performed for nearly all measurements, regardless of time as well for values obtained over two 12h mutually exclusive periods, starting either at 2am or 2pm. Regression graphs were derived from 1800 patients' blood gas results with least 10,000 data pairs grouped into 2h intervals. The calculated s aGEM exceed the directly measured s aABL with many GEM sigma ratios of biologic variation/analytic variation being close to unity. All of the afternoon s aGEM exceeded their morning counterparts with pH, pCO 2 , K and bicarbonate being statistically significant. For many analytes, the average analytical variation of tandem GEMs approximates the biologic variation, indicating impaired clinical usefulness of tandem sequential measurements. A significant component of this variation is due to increased variation of the GEMs between 2pm and 2am. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

1995-01-01

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Investigation of the influence of sampling schemes on quantitative dynamic fluorescence imaging

PubMed Central

Dai, Yunpeng; Chen, Xueli; Yin, Jipeng; Wang, Guodong; Wang, Bo; Zhan, Yonghua; Nie, Yongzhan; Wu, Kaichun; Liang, Jimin

2018-01-01

Dynamic optical data from a series of sampling intervals can be used for quantitative analysis to obtain meaningful kinetic parameters of probe in vivo. The sampling schemes may affect the quantification results of dynamic fluorescence imaging. Here, we investigate the influence of different sampling schemes on the quantification of binding potential (BP) with theoretically simulated and experimentally measured data. Three groups of sampling schemes are investigated including the sampling starting point, sampling sparsity, and sampling uniformity. In the investigation of the influence of the sampling starting point, we further summarize two cases by considering the missing timing sequence between the probe injection and sampling starting time. Results show that the mean value of BP exhibits an obvious growth trend with an increase in the delay of the sampling starting point, and has a strong correlation with the sampling sparsity. The growth trend is much more obvious if throwing the missing timing sequence. The standard deviation of BP is inversely related to the sampling sparsity, and independent of the sampling uniformity and the delay of sampling starting time. Moreover, the mean value of BP obtained by uniform sampling is significantly higher than that by using the non-uniform sampling. Our results collectively suggest that a suitable sampling scheme can help compartmental modeling of dynamic fluorescence imaging provide more accurate results and simpler operations. PMID:29675325

Performance of toxicity probability interval based designs in contrast to the continual reassessment method

PubMed Central

Horton, Bethany Jablonski; Wages, Nolan A.; Conaway, Mark R.

2016-01-01

Toxicity probability interval designs have received increasing attention as a dose-finding method in recent years. In this study, we compared the two-stage, likelihood-based continual reassessment method (CRM), modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI), and the Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN) in order to evaluate each method's performance in dose selection for Phase I trials. We use several summary measures to compare the performance of these methods, including percentage of correct selection (PCS) of the true maximum tolerable dose (MTD), allocation of patients to doses at and around the true MTD, and an accuracy index. This index is an efficiency measure that describes the entire distribution of MTD selection and patient allocation by taking into account the distance between the true probability of toxicity at each dose level and the target toxicity rate. The simulation study considered a broad range of toxicity curves and various sample sizes. When considering PCS, we found that CRM outperformed the two competing methods in most scenarios, followed by BOIN, then mTPI. We observed a similar trend when considering the accuracy index for dose allocation, where CRM most often outperformed both the mTPI and BOIN. These trends were more pronounced with increasing number of dose levels. PMID:27435150

A Millennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Record From the North Atlantic Based on Diatoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miettinen, A.; Koc, N.

2008-12-01

Sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) are generated from a 1000-year-long sediment core from the eastern flank of Reykjanes Ridge in the subpolar North Atlantic with a time resolution of 2-10 years. 54.3 cm long box core (Rapid 21-12B) and 370 cm long gravity core (RAPID 21-3K) were recovered from deep-sea sediments (2630 m water depth) during the RRS Charles Darwin cruise 159 in 2004. The box core is dated using the 210Pb method and it is continuously subsampled and investigated at 0.5 cm intervals for the last 230 years with a two years average time resolution. The gravity core is dated 14C AMS method and it is investigated continuously at 1.0 cm intervals with a ten years average resolution for the interval representing 230-1000 cal. years BP. August SSTs are reconstructed using marine planktonic diatom species with the Weighted Averages - Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) method. Results achieved from the box core indicate August SST warming of c. 1 °C from 1773 AD to the present. The interval 1773-1830 represents the cold period at the investigated site. It is followed by warm period between 1830 and 1885. After this the temperature frequency is more stable with short cool events around 1890 and 1930. The last 60 years represent the warm period with a slow warming trend, especially during the past 25 years. However, results do not indicate distinct SST warming since 1870s. The most high-frequency SST variability with amplitude of c. 1 °C appears after 1970 indicating several very warm years, but also coldest years since 1820s.

Consumption of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age: the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Nooyens, Astrid C J; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; van Gelder, Boukje M; van Boxtel, Martin P J; Verschuren, W M Monique

2014-02-01

Accelerated cognitive decline increases the risk of dementia. Slowing down the rate of cognitive decline leads to the preservation of cognitive functioning in the elderly, who can live independently for a longer time. Alcohol consumption may influence the rate of cognitive decline. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the associations between the total consumption of alcoholic beverages and different types of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age. In 2613 men and women of the Doetinchem Cohort Study, aged 43-70 years at baseline (1995-2002), cognitive function (global cognitive function and the domains memory, speed and flexibility) was assessed twice, with a 5-year time interval. In linear regression analyses, the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages was analysed in relation to cognitive decline, adjusting for confounders. We observed that, in women, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function over a 5-year period (P for trend = 0·02), while no association was observed in men. Regarding the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in men and women together, red wine consumption was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function (P for trend < 0·01) as well as memory (P for trend < 0·01) and flexibility (P for trend = 0·03). Smallest declines were observed at a consumption of about 1·5 glasses of red wine per d. No other types of alcoholic beverages were associated with cognitive decline. In conclusion, only (moderate) red wine consumption was consistently associated with less strong cognitive decline. Therefore, it is most likely that non-alcoholic substances in red wine are responsible for any cognition-preserving effects.

Social Inequalities in Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Older Adults in Spain: The Seniors-ENRICA Study.

PubMed

Pérez-Hernández, Bibiana; García-Esquinas, Esther; Graciani, Auxiliadora; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; López-García, Esther; León-Muñoz, Luz M; Banegas, José R; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

2017-03-01

To examine the distribution of the main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) according to socioeconomic level (SEL) among older adults in Spain. A cross-sectional study conducted in 2008-2010 with 2699 individuals representative of the noninstitutionalized Spanish population aged ≥ 60 years. Socioeconomic level was assessed using educational level, occupation, and father's occupation. The CVRF included behavioral and biological factors and were measured under standardized conditions. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, higher educational level was associated with a higher frequency of moderate alcohol consumption and leisure time physical activity, and less time spent watching television. An inverse educational gradient was observed for frequency of obesity (odds ratio [OR] in university vs primary level or below education, 0.44; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 0.33-0.57; P-trend < .01), metabolic syndrome (OR = 0.56; 95%CI, 0.43-0.71; P-trend < .01), diabetes (OR = 0.68; 95%CI, 0.49-0.95; P-trend < .05), and cardiovascular disease (OR = 0.52; 95%CI, 0.29-0.91; P-trend < .05). Compared with a nonmanual occupation, having a manual occupation was associated with a higher frequency of several CVRF; this association was stronger than that observed for father's occupation. Differences in CVRF across SELs were generally greater in women than in men. There are significant social inequalities in CVRF among older adults in Spain. Reducing these inequalities, bringing the levels of CVRF in those from lower SEL in line with the levels seen in higher SEL, could substantially reduce the prevalence of CVRF in the older adult population. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Multimorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome in 2 prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Szentkirályi, András; Völzke, Henry; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Trenkwalder, Claudia; Berger, Klaus

2014-06-03

Our aim was to evaluate the association between the cumulative effect of comorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome (RLS) in 2 population-based German cohort studies. The Dortmund Health Study (DHS) (n = 1,312; median follow-up time: 2.1 years) and the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) (n = 4,308; median follow-up time: 5.0 years) were used for the analyses. RLS was assessed at baseline and follow-up according to the RLS minimal criteria. A comorbidity index was calculated as a sum of the following conditions: diabetes, hypertension, myocardial infarction, obesity, stroke, cancer, renal disease, anemia, depression, thyroid disease, and migraine. The relationship between comorbidity and incident RLS was analyzed with multivariate logistic regression models. An increase in the number of comorbid conditions at baseline predicted prevalent RLS (DHS: trend odds ratio [OR] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.56; SHIP: trend OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.18-1.52) and incident RLS (DHS: trend OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.04-1.68; SHIP: trend OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.37-1.85) after adjustment for several covariates. The ORs for incident RLS associated with 3 or more comorbid diseases (DHS: OR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.18-5.34; SHIP: OR = 4.30, 95% CI 2.60-7.11) were higher than the ORs for any single disease. Multimorbidity was a strong risk factor for RLS in these 2 population-based cohort studies. The results support the hypothesis that cumulative disease burden is more important than the presence of a specific single disease in the pathophysiology of RLS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976–2005: an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Dhillon, P K; Yeole, B B; Dikshit, R; Kurkure, A P; Bray, F

2011-01-01

Background: Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural changes in India have increased longevity, delayed childbearing, decreased parity and resulted in a more westernised lifestyle, contributing to the increasing burden of cancer, especially among women. Methods: We evaluated secular changes in the incidence of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer in Mumbai women aged 30–64 between 1976 and 2005. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated and presented by site and calendar period. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis quantified recent time trends and the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was obtained from the drift parameter, expressing the linear time trend common to both calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30-year study period, the age-standardised rates significantly increased for breast cancer (EAPC: 1.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.3)), significantly decreased for cervical cancer (EAPC: −1.8% (95% CI: −2.0, −1.6)) and there was no statistically significant change for ovarian cancer (EAPC: 0.3% (95% CI: −0.1, 0.6)). For breast and cervical cancer, the best-fitting model was the APC model. Conclusions: The rates of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer remain low in comparison with western countries, and the divergent trends of breast (increasing) and cervical cancer (decreasing) in Mumbai were similar to those observed in several other Asian countries. The changing risk profile in successive generations – improved education, higher socioeconomic status, later age at marriage and at first child, and lower parity – may in combination partially explain the diverging generational changes in breast and cervical cancer in Mumbai in the last decades. PMID:21829198

A review of trends in attrition rates for surgical faculty: a case for a sustainable retention strategy to cope with demographic and economic realities.

PubMed

Satiani, Bhagwan; Williams, Thomas E; Brod, Heather; Way, David P; Ellison, E Christopher

2013-05-01

Our aim was to compare trends in retention of academic surgeons by reviewing surgical faculty attrition rates (leaving academic surgery for any reason) of 3 cohorts at 5-year intervals between 1996 and 2011. The Association of American Medical Colleges' Faculty Administrative Management On-Line User System database was queried for a retention report of all tenure/clinical track full-time MD faculty within our academic medical center on July 1, 1996 (group 1), July 1, 2001 (group 2), and July 1, 2006 (group 3). Retention was tracked for 5 years post snapshot. The individual 5-year cohort attrition rates (observed frequencies) were compared with combined attrition rates for all 3 groups (expected frequencies). Overall, attrition trends for groups 2 (lower) and 3 (higher) were significantly different than the trends for all groups combined. Minorities and professors at the full or associate rank in group 3 contributed to this difference. Faculty in group 3 leaving our academic medical center were significantly more likely to transition into nonacademic practice compared with the other 2 groups. Greater attrition in the last 5-year cohort, despite the increase in faculty positions, is worrisome. A continuous retention life cycle is critical if academic medical centers hope to compete for talent. Retention planning should include on-boarding programs for enculturation, monitoring of professional satisfaction, formalized mentoring of younger surgeons, retaining academic couples and a part-time workforce, leadership and talent management, exit interviews, and competitive financial packages. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reactive and anticipatory looking in 6-month-old infants during a visual expectation paradigm.

PubMed

Quan, Jeffry; Bureau, Jean-François; Abdul Malik, Adam B; Wong, Johnny; Rifkin-Graboi, Anne

2017-10-01

This article presents data from 278 six-month-old infants who completed a visual expectation paradigm in which audiovisual stimuli were first presented randomly (random phase), and then in a spatial pattern (pattern phase). Infants' eye gaze behaviour was tracked with a 60 Hz Tobii eye-tracker in order to measure two types of looking behaviour: reactive looking (i.e., latency to shift eye gaze in reaction to the appearance of stimuli) and anticipatory looking (i.e., percentage of time spent looking at the location where the next stimulus is about to appear during the inter-stimulus interval). Data pertaining to missing data and task order effects are presented. Further analyses show that infants' reactive looking was faster in the pattern phase, compared to the random phase, and their anticipatory looking increased from random to pattern phases. Within the pattern phase, infants' reactive looking showed a quadratic trend, with reactive looking time latencies peaking in the middle portion of the phase. Similarly, within the pattern phase, infants' anticipatory looking also showed a quadratic trend, with anticipatory looking peaking during the middle portion of the phase.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Firearm and nonfirearm homicide in 5 South African cities: a retrospective population-based study.

PubMed

Matzopoulos, Richard G; Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E

2014-03-01

We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

Statistical Parameter Study of the Time Interval Distribution for Nonparalyzable, Paralyzable, and Hybrid Dead Time Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syam, Nur Syamsi; Maeng, Seongjin; Kim, Myo Gwang; Lim, Soo Yeon; Lee, Sang Hoon

2018-05-01

A large dead time of a Geiger Mueller (GM) detector may cause a large count loss in radiation measurements and consequently may cause distortion of the Poisson statistic of radiation events into a new distribution. The new distribution will have different statistical parameters compared to the original distribution. Therefore, the variance, skewness, and excess kurtosis in association with the observed count rate of the time interval distribution for well-known nonparalyzable, paralyzable, and nonparalyzable-paralyzable hybrid dead time models of a Geiger Mueller detector were studied using Monte Carlo simulation (GMSIM). These parameters were then compared with the statistical parameters of a perfect detector to observe the change in the distribution. The results show that the behaviors of the statistical parameters for the three dead time models were different. The values of the skewness and the excess kurtosis of the nonparalyzable model are equal or very close to those of the perfect detector, which are ≅2 for skewness, and ≅6 for excess kurtosis, while the statistical parameters in the paralyzable and hybrid model obtain minimum values that occur around the maximum observed count rates. The different trends of the three models resulting from the GMSIM simulation can be used to distinguish the dead time behavior of a GM counter; i.e. whether the GM counter can be described best by using the nonparalyzable, paralyzable, or hybrid model. In a future study, these statistical parameters need to be analyzed further to determine the possibility of using them to determine a dead time for each model, particularly for paralyzable and hybrid models.

Sport and Sex-Specific Reporting Trends in the Epidemiology of Concussions Sustained by High School Athletes.

PubMed

Schallmo, Michael S; Weiner, Joseph A; Hsu, Wellington K

2017-08-02

Approximately 300,000 U.S. adolescents sustain concussions annually while participating in organized athletics. This study aimed to track sex and sport-specific trends among high school sports-related concussions over time, to identify whether a particular sport predisposes athletes to a higher risk, and to assess whether traumatic brain injury law enactments have been successful in improving recognition. Injury data for academic years 2005 to 2014 were collected from annual reports generated by High School RIO (Reporting Information Online). The relative proportions of total estimated concussions to total estimated injuries were compared using an injury proportion ratio. The concussion rate was defined as the number of concussions per 10,000 athlete exposures (1 athlete participating in 1 practice or competition), with rates compared using a rate ratio. To evaluate the impact of legislation on sports-related concussions in this population, trends in concussion rates and proportions were analyzed before enactment (academic years 2005-2009) and after enactment (academic years 2010-2014). Between 2005-2006 and 2014-2015, a significant increase (p < 0.0001) in the overall number of concussions for all sports combined, the overall concussion rate (rate ratio, 2.30 [95% confidence interval, 2.04 to 2.59]), and the overall proportion of concussions (injury proportion ratio, 2.68 [95% confidence interval, 2.66 to 2.70]) was seen. Based on the injury proportion ratio, during the 2014-2015 academic year, concussions were more common in girls' soccer than in any other sport (p < 0.0001). Because of potentially devastating consequences, concussion prevention and recognition measures continue to be emphasized in high school contact sports. The data in our study suggest that significant increases in the overall rate and proportion of reported concussions during the past decade could have been affected by traumatic brain injury legislation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show that girls' soccer players may have an even greater risk of sustaining a concussion than all other sports. Sports-related concussions in adolescent athletes can have devastating consequences, and we now know that female athletes, especially girls' soccer players, may be at an even greater risk for sustaining this injury than all other athletes. Knowledge of the trends identified by this study may help lead to policy and prevention measures that can accommodate each sport effectively and potentially halt these trends.

Ground reaction forces and heart rate profile of aerobic dance instructors during a low and high impact exercise programme.

PubMed

Rousanoglou, E N; Boudolos, K D

2005-06-01

The magnitude of ground reaction forces (GRF) has been associated, although never verified, with the high incidence of lower extremities injuries in aerobic dance (AD) instructors. Moreover, during their working activities AD instructors have demonstrated HR levels, such as 70% HRmax, values, more in training rather in working status. This study was designed to investigate GRF and heart rate (HR) exhibited by AD instructors of both genders, during a simulated AD instruction, from the perspective of accepted occupational workloads. Fourteen females and 14 males instructors performed a 35 min AD exercise programme (warm up--low impact (LI) interval--in high impact (HI) interval--cool down). Four GRF measurements were taken during LI and HI time intervals, respectively. HR was recorded throughout the whole experimental procedure and was synchronised to GRF measurements. All GRF and HR values were significantly increased in HI exercise (p<0.05) with a non significant (p>0.05) time effect for GRF. In both LI and HI exercises, females demonstrated significantly higher vertical but lower lateral GRF (p<0.05) and significantly shorter cycles of movement (p<0.05) while in HI exercise they had significant longer flight times (p<0.05). For both genders, HR was kept at 70% and 80% of HR(max-calc) and RHR was 60% and 70%, during LI and HI intervals respectively, with females showing a trend, though non-significant, for higher HR values. The gender specificity of the significant vertical and lateral GRF pattern differences, may possibly be associated with the significant anthropometric differences of male and female AD instructors. HR(max-calc) and RHR exceeded the accepted occupational levels rising to training status levels. We suggest that AD instructors take up such instructing methods which allow them to minimize the magnitude or the rate of GRF, as well as HR levels, developed in the course of their working hour.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-12-01

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Estimation of the Undiagnosed Intervals of HIV-Infected Individuals by a Modified Back-Calculation Method for Reconstructing the Epidemic Curves.

PubMed

Wong, Ngai Sze; Wong, Ka Hing; Lee, Man Po; Tsang, Owen T Y; Chan, Denise P C; Lee, Shui Shan

2016-01-01

Undiagnosed infections accounted for the hidden proportion of HIV cases that have escaped from public health surveillance. To assess the population risk of HIV transmission, we estimated the undiagnosed interval of each known infection for constructing the HIV incidence curves. We used modified back-calculation methods to estimate the seroconversion year for each diagnosed patient attending any one of the 3 HIV specialist clinics in Hong Kong. Three approaches were used, depending on the adequacy of CD4 data: (A) estimating one's pre-treatment CD4 depletion rate in multilevel model;(B) projecting one's seroconversion year by referencing seroconverters' CD4 depletion rate; or (C) projecting from the distribution of estimated undiagnosed intervals in (B). Factors associated with long undiagnosed interval (>2 years) were examined in univariate analyses. Epidemic curves constructed from estimated seroconversion data were evaluated by modes of transmission. Between 1991 and 2010, a total of 3695 adult HIV patients were diagnosed. The undiagnosed intervals were derived from method (A) (28%), (B) (61%) and (C) (11%) respectively. The intervals ranged from 0 to 10 years, and were shortened from 2001. Heterosexual infection, female, Chinese and age >64 at diagnosis were associated with long undiagnosed interval. Overall, the peaks of the new incidence curves were reached 4-6 years ahead of reported diagnoses, while their contours varied by mode of transmission. Characteristically, the epidemic growth of heterosexual male and female declined after 1998 with slight rebound in 2004-2006, but that of MSM continued to rise after 1998. By determining the time of seroconversion, HIV epidemic curves could be reconstructed from clinical data to better illustrate the trends of new infections. With the increasing coverage of antiretroviral therapy, the undiagnosed interval can add to the measures for assessing HIV transmission risk in the population.

Perceptual basis of evolving Western musical styles

PubMed Central

Rodriguez Zivic, Pablo H.; Shifres, Favio; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2013-01-01

The brain processes temporal statistics to predict future events and to categorize perceptual objects. These statistics, called expectancies, are found in music perception, and they span a variety of different features and time scales. Specifically, there is evidence that music perception involves strong expectancies regarding the distribution of a melodic interval, namely, the distance between two consecutive notes within the context of another. The recent availability of a large Western music dataset, consisting of the historical record condensed as melodic interval counts, has opened new possibilities for data-driven analysis of musical perception. In this context, we present an analytical approach that, based on cognitive theories of music expectation and machine learning techniques, recovers a set of factors that accurately identifies historical trends and stylistic transitions between the Baroque, Classical, Romantic, and Post-Romantic periods. We also offer a plausible musicological and cognitive interpretation of these factors, allowing us to propose them as data-driven principles of melodic expectation. PMID:23716669

Long Term Follow-up of Botulinum Toxin Therapy for Focal Hand Dystonia: Outcome at 10 or More Years

PubMed Central

Lungu, Codrin; Karp, Barbara I; Alter, Katharine; Zolbrod, Regina; Hallett, Mark

2010-01-01

Background Prior studies have explored the efficacy and safety of BoNT treatment for FHD, but none have followed a large number of patients for 10 or more years. Methods Retrospective study, with benefit and weakness assessed on a 0-4 subjective scale. Demographic, clinical and treatment characteristics were analyzed using t-tests and Pearson correlations. Results 20 FHD patients had 10 years or longer treatment. Inter-injection intervals were variable. Musicians were more likely to wait longer between injections and had less complex dystonia. There was a trend for larger benefit in women and with shorter intervals. The dose increased over time. Dystonia characteristics did not predict response or side-effects, but benefit magnitude predicted longer compliance. No serious side-effects or antibody-mediated resistance occurred. Conclusion This is the longest reported period of BoNT treatment in the largest FHD cohort. BoNT therapy for FHD remains safe and effective after more than a decade of treatment. PMID:21506157

Paediatric reference interval and biological variation trends of thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (T4) in an Asian population.

PubMed

Loh, Tze Ping; Sethi, Sunil Kumar; Metz, Michael Patrick

2015-08-01

To describe the reference intervals and biological variation data for thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) in a mixed Asian population using an indirect sampling approach and to compare them with published reports. TSH and FT4 of children measured once or twice over a 7-year period (2008-2014) at primary-care and tertiary-care settings were extracted from the laboratory information system. After excluding outliers, age-related reference intervals were derived using the Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) approach, while age-partitioned biological variation data were obtained according to recommendations by Fraser and Harris. Both TSH and FT4 were very high at birth and declined with age. Similarly within-individual and between-individual biological variations were higher for both TSH and FT4 at birth and also declined with age. Our data were broadly similar to previous studies. Significant heterogeneity in study population and methods prohibited direct numerical comparison between this and previously published studies. This study fills two important gaps in our knowledge of paediatric thyroid function by reporting the centile trends (and reference values) in a mixed Asian population, as well as providing age-partitioned biological variation data. The variation in published reference intervals highlights the difficulty in harmonising paediatric thyroid reference intervals or recommending universal clinical cut-offs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

A trend analysis of laboratory positive propoxyphene workplace urine drug screens before and after the product recall.

PubMed

Price, James

2015-01-01

Propoxyphene was withdrawn from the US market in November 2010. This drug is still tested for in the workplace as part of expanded panel nonregulated testing. A convenience sample of urine specimens (n = 7838) were provided by workers from various industries. The percentage of positive specimens with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for each year of the study. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of the year upon the propoxyphene result. The prevalence of positive propoxyphene tests was much higher before the product's withdrawal from the market. Logistic regression provided evidence of a decreasing linear trend (P < 0.000; β = -0.71). The odds ratio signifies that for every additional year the urine specimens were 0.49 times less likely to be positive for propoxyphene. This favors the determination that the change in propoxyphene positive drug test over the years is not by chance. The conclusion supports no longer performing nonregulated workplace propoxyphene urine drug testing for this population.

[Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015].

PubMed

Li, F Y; Tan, H Z; Ren, G H; Jiang, Q; Wang, H L

2017-03-10

Objective: To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Methods: The changes of infection rates of Schistosoma ( S .) japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S. japonicum , and predict the recent infection rate. Results: The overall infection rates of S. japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion: The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.

Automated data extraction from general practice records in an Australian setting: trends in influenza-like illness in sentinel general practices and emergency departments.

PubMed

Liljeqvist, Gösta T H; Staff, Michael; Puech, Michele; Blom, Hans; Torvaldsen, Siranda

2011-06-06

Influenza intelligence in New South Wales (NSW), Australia is derived mainly from emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital and intensive care admissions, which represent only a portion of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the population. A substantial amount of the remaining data lies hidden in general practice (GP) records. Previous attempts in Australia to gather ILI data from GPs have given them extra work. We explored the possibility of applying automated data extraction from GP records in sentinel surveillance in an Australian setting.The two research questions asked in designing the study were: Can syndromic ILI data be extracted automatically from routine GP data? How do ILI trends in sentinel general practice compare with ILI trends in EDs? We adapted a software program already capable of automated data extraction to identify records of patients with ILI in routine electronic GP records in two of the most commonly used commercial programs. This tool was applied in sentinel sites to gather retrospective data for May-October 2007-2009 and in real-time for the same interval in 2010. The data were compared with that provided by the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (PHREDSS) and with ED data for the same periods. The GP surveillance tool identified seasonal trends in ILI both retrospectively and in near real-time. The curve of seasonal ILI was more responsive and less volatile than that of PHREDSS on a local area level. The number of weekly ILI presentations ranged from 8 to 128 at GP sites and from 0 to 18 in EDs in non-pandemic years. Automated data extraction from routine GP records offers a means to gather data without introducing any additional work for the practitioner. Adding this method to current surveillance programs will enhance their ability to monitor ILI and to detect early warning signals of new ILI events.

Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

PubMed

Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

2014-06-01

Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p < 0.0001). We found increasing trends in collaboration and citation in both general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

2014-01-01

Background The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44–79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%–51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%–94%) and 73% (CI, 48%–86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Conclusions Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006–2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors. PMID:25406083

Trends in added sugar intake and food sources in a cohort of older Australians: 15 years of follow-up from the Blue Mountains Eye Study.

PubMed

Moshtaghian, H; Louie, J C Y; Charlton, K E; Probst, Y C; Gopinath, B; Mitchell, P; Flood, V M

2017-06-01

The trend of added sugar (AS) intake has not been investigated in the Australian population, including in older adults. The present study aimed to assess trends and food sources of AS intake among a cohort of older Australians during 15 years of follow-up. Dietary data from participants of the Blue Mountains Eye Study (1264 men and 1614 women), aged ≥49 years at baseline, were collected. Dietary intakes were assessed at 5-yearly intervals (1992-94 to 2007-09) using a 145-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). AS content of FFQ food items was estimated using a stepwise systematic method. Trends for AS intake between baseline and the three follow-up periods were assessed using linear mixed modelling. In men, the mean (SEM) percentage of energy provided by AS intake (EAS%) declined from 10.4% (0.1%) at baseline to 9.4% (0.2%) at 15-year follow-up (P trend = 0.028). Women's mean (SEM) EAS% intake at baseline and 15-year follow-up was 9.2% (0.1%) and 8.8% (0.2%), respectively (P trend = 0.550). EAS% intake of men was significantly higher than that of women for 10 years (P < 0.05). Sugar products (table sugar, syrup, jam and honey) were the major sources of AS at all-time points and contributed to more than 40% and 35% of AS intake in men and women, respectively. Intake of sugar products decreased in men during follow-up (P trend < 0.001). An overall downward trend was observed in AS intake in both genders, however, was only significant for men during 15 years of follow-up. Table sugar and sugar-containing spreads represent the major source of AS in this cohort of older Australians. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Trends and determinants for early initiation of and exclusive breastfeeding under six months in Vietnam: results from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Bui, Quyen Thi-Tu; Lee, Hwa-Young; Le, Anh Thi-Kim; Van Dung, Do; Vu, Lan Thi-Hoang

2016-01-01

There is strong evidence that breastfeeding (BF) significantly benefits mothers and infants in various ways. Yet the proportion of breastfed babies in Vietnam is low and continues to decline. This study fills an important evidence gap in BF practices in Vietnam. This paper examines the trend of early initiation of BF and exclusive BF from 2000 to 2011 in Vietnam and explores the determinants at individual and contextual levels. Data from three waves of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey were combined to estimate crude and adjusted trends over time for two outcomes - early initiation of BF and exclusive BF. Three-level logistic regressions were fitted to examine the impacts of both individual and contextual characteristics on early initiation of BF and exclusive BF in the 2011 data. Both types of BF showed a decreasing trend over time after controlling for individual-level characteristics but this trend was more evident for early initiation of BF. Apart from child's age, individual-level characteristics were not significant predictors of the BF outcomes, but provincial characteristics had a strong association. When controlling for individual-level characteristics, mothers living in provinces with a higher percentage of mothers with more than three children were more likely to have initiated early BF (odds ratio [OR]: 1.06; confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.11) but less likely to exclusively breastfeed their babies (OR: 0.94; CI: 0.88-1.01). Mothers living in areas with a higher poverty rate were more likely to breastfeed exclusively (OR: 1.07; CI: 1.02-1.13), and those who delivered by Caesarean section were less likely to initiate early BF. Our results suggest that environmental factors are becoming more important for determining BF practices in Vietnam. Intervention programs should therefore not only consider individual factors, but should also consider the potential impact of contextual factors on BF practices.

Aging and death-associated changes in serum albumin variability over the course of chronic hemodialysis treatment.

PubMed

Nakazato, Yuichi; Kurane, Riichi; Hirose, Satoru; Watanabe, Akihisa; Shimoyama, Hiromi

2017-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated associations between variability in a number of biological parameters and adverse outcomes. As the variability may reflect impaired homeostatic regulation, we assessed albumin variability over time in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Data from 1346 subjects who received chronic HD treatment from May 2001 to February 2015 were analyzed according to three phases of HD treatment: post-HD initiation, during maintenance HD treatment, and before death. The serum albumin values were grouped according to the time interval from HD initiation or death, and the yearly trends for both the albumin levels and the intra-individual albumin variability (quantified by the residual coefficient of variation: Alb-rCV) were examined. The HD initiation and death-associated changes were also analyzed using generalized additive mixed models. Furthermore, the long-term trend throughout the maintenance treatment period was evaluated separately using linear regression models. Albumin levels and variability showed distinctive changes during each of the 3 periods. After HD initiation, albumin variability decreased and reached a nadir within a year. During the subsequent maintenance treatment period (interquartile range = 5.2-11.0 years), the log Alb-rCV showed a significant upward trend (mean slope: 0.011 ± 0.035 /year), and its overall mean was -1.49 ± 0.08 (equivalent to an Alb-rCV of 3.22%). During the 1-2 years before death, this upward trend clearly accelerated, and the mean log Alb-rCV in the last year of life was -1.36 ± 0.17. The albumin levels and variability were negatively correlated with each other and exhibited exactly opposite movements throughout the course of chronic HD treatment. Different from the albumin levels, albumin variability was not dependent on chronological age but was independently associated with an individual's aging and death process. The observed upward trend in albumin variability seems to be consistent with a presumed aging-related decline in homeostatic capacity.

Does active dissemination of evidence result in faster knowledge transfer than passive diffusion?: An analysis of trends of the management of pediatric asthma and croup in US emergency departments from 1995 to 2009.

PubMed

Knapp, Jane F; Simon, Stephen D; Sharma, Vidya

2015-03-01

This study aimed to compare knowledge transfer (KT) in the emergency department (ED) management of pediatric asthma and croup by measuring trends in corticosteroid use for both conditions in EDs. A retrospective, cross-sectional study of the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey data between 1995 and 2009 of corticosteroid use at ED visits for asthma or croup was conducted. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression. Trends over time were compared using an interaction term between disease and year and were adjusted for all other covariates in the model. We included children aged 2 to 18 years with asthma who received albuterol and were triaged emergent/urgent. Children aged between 3 months to 6 years with croup were included. The main outcome measure was the administration of corticosteroids in the ED or as a prescription at the ED visit. The corticosteroid use in asthma visits increased from 44% to 67% and from 32% to 56% for croup. After adjusting for patient and hospital factors, this trend was significant both for asthma (OR, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.10) and croup (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12). There was no statistical difference between the 2 trends (P = 0.69). Hospital location in a metropolitan statistical area was associated with increased corticosteroid use in asthma (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.10-2.82). Factors including sex, ethnicity, insurance, or region of the country were not significantly associated with corticosteroid use. During a 15-year period, knowledge transfer by passive diffusion or active guideline dissemination resulted in similar trends of corticosteroid use for the management of pediatric asthma and croup.

Maternal serum perfluoroalkyl substances during pregnancy and duration of breastfeeding

PubMed Central

Romano, Megan E.; Xu, Yingying; Calafat, Antonia M.; Yolton, Kimberly; Chen, Aimin; Webster, Glenys M.; Eliot, Melissa N.; Howard, Cynthia R.; Lanphear, Bruce P.; Braun, Joseph M.

2016-01-01

Background Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may affect breast development and decrease duration of breastfeeding, thus interfering with the health benefits of breastfeeding. We investigated the association between maternal PFAS exposure and breastfeeding duration. Methods We measured PFAS concentrations in maternal serum collected during pregnancy in 2003–2006. After delivery, women (n=336) completed standardized breastfeeding surveys every 3 months until ending breastfeeding or 36 months postpartum. We estimated relative risks (RRs) for ending any breastfeeding within 3 or 6 months postpartum by Poisson regression, adjusted for relevant confounding factors. Results Women in the 4th quartile of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) serum concentration had 1.77 times the risk of ending any breastfeeding by 3 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23, 2.54; p-trend=0.003) and 1.41 times the risk of ending any breastfeeding by 6 months (95%CI: 1.06, 1.87; p-trend=0.038), compared with women in the first quartile. Women in the 4th quartile of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid serum concentration had a marginally increased risk of discontinuing any breastfeeding by 3 months (RR=1.32; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.79; p-trend=0.065). Conclusions Maternal serum PFOA concentrations were inversely related to duration of any breastfeeding in this cohort, even after controlling for prior breastfeeding. These findings suggest that PFOA exposure may adversely affect breastfeeding duration and highlight the need to consider the potential adverse effects of maternal environmental chemical exposure on breastfeeding. PMID:27179585

An Overview of Tracheal Stenosis Research Trends and Hot Topics.

PubMed

Farzanegan, Roya; Feizabadi, Mansoureh; Ghorbani, Fariba; Movassaghi, Masoud; Vaziri, Esmaeil; Zangi, Mahdi; Lajevardi, Seyedamirmohammad; Shadmehr, Mohammad Behgam

2017-09-01

Tracheal stenosis remains a challenge in the thoracic surgery field. Recognizing the hot topics and major concepts in this area would help the health policy makers to determine their own priorities and design the effective research plans. The present study analyzed and mapped the topics and trends of tracheal stenosis studies over time as well as authors' and countries' contributions. Search results were obtained employing Bibexcel. To determine cold and hot topics, co-occurrence analysis was applied using three international databases 'Web of Science', 'PubMed' and 'Scopus'. Appropriately, different categories in the articles such as keywords, authors, and countries were explored via VOSviewer and NetDraw. Afterward, the trends of research topics were depicted in four time-intervals from 1945 to 2015 by ten co-occurrence terms. The majority of articles were limited to case series and retrospective studies. The studies had been conducted less frequently on prevention, risk factors and incidence determination but extensively on treatment and procedures. Based on the articles indexed in WOS, 45 countries and 8,260 authors have contributed to scientific progress in this field. The highest degree of cooperation occurred between the USA and England with 15 common papers. Most of the published literature in tracheal stenosis research field was about surgical and non-surgical treatments. Conducting the screening and prevention studies would diminish the burden of this disease on the health system as well as the patients and their families' well-being.

Long-term survival after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: population-based trends in cure and relapse by clinical characteristics.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley; Glaser, Adam W; Kinsey, Sally E; Greenwood, Darren C; Chilton, Lucy; Moorman, Anthony V; Feltbower, Richard G

2018-05-29

'Cure models' offer additional information to traditional epidemiological approaches to assess survival for cancer patients by simultaneously estimating the proportion cured and the survival of those 'uncured'. The proportion cured is a summary of long-term survival while the median survival time of the uncured provides important information on those who are not long-term survivors. Population-based trends in the cure proportion and survival of the uncured for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) by clinical prognostic risk factors were estimated using flexible parametric cure models, based on overall survival and event-free survival. Children aged 1-17 years diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 in Yorkshire, UK, were included (n = 492). The percentage cured increased from 77% (95% confidence interval 70-84%) in 1990-1997 to 89% (84-93%) in 2003-2011, while the median survival time of the uncured decreased from 3·2 years (2·2-4·1 years) to 0·7 years (0-1·5 years). Models based on event-free survival showed a similar trend. The 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse substantially decreased from 35% in 1990-97 to 9% in 2003-2011. These results show selective improvement in survival between 1990 and 2011 with a significant reduction in the risk of relapse alongside a reduced absolute duration of survival for those destined to be uncured. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of long-term trends of flooding on habitat conditions in lowland riparian wetlands under low antropopression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz

2016-04-01

Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second part of the 20th century. This is considered a challenge for habitat management as the most recent hydrological dynamics of these riparian habitats entail different temporal balance of oxic-anoxic conditions.

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Trends in Rehabilitation Services Use in Chinese Children and Adolescents With Intellectual Disabilities: 2007-2013.

PubMed

He, Ping; Guo, Chao; Luo, Yanan; Wen, Xu; Salas, J M Ian; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2017-12-01

To investigate trends in rehabilitation services use in children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities, and to explore factors potentially contributing to the trends. A population-based study using a multistage, randomized cluster-sampling process to ascertain participants in 2006. A subsample was selected for follow-up surveys from 2007 to 2013. Thirty-one provinces of China. Children (N=5432) aged 0 to 17 years with intellectual disabilities were followed up for 7 years. Not applicable. The outcome variable was whether individuals received at least 1 of the following rehabilitation services in the past 12 months: occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech or communication therapy. Overall, the utilization rates of rehabilitation services significantly increased from 14.4% in 2007 to 37.1% in 2013. The trends were also significant in children aged 0 to 10 and 11 to 17 years, in boys and girls, and in rural participants. From 2007 to 2013, rehabilitation services utilization increased at an annual rate of 22.39% (95% confidence interval, 18.11%-26.82%) in the total sample. The rise was only significant in rural rather than urban individuals, resulting in the urban-rural gap in rehabilitation services use being narrowed. However, minority populations and those without health insurance still received fewer rehabilitation services than their respective counterparts. There were upward trends in rehabilitation services use in participants over time, and the urban-rural gap was narrowed. However, there were still socioeconomic differences on rehabilitation services use among children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of Sleep Telemedicine Protocol in Management of Sleep Apnea: A 5-Year VA Experience.

PubMed

Baig, Mirza M; Antonescu-Turcu, Andrea; Ratarasarn, Kavita

2016-05-01

There is growing evidence that demonstrates an important role for telemedicine technologies in enhancing healthcare delivery. A comprehensive sleep telemedicine protocol was implemented at the Veterans Administration Medical Center (VAMC), Milwaukee, WI, in 2008 in an effort to improve access to sleep specialty care. The telemedicine protocol relied heavily on sleep specialist interventions based on chart review (electronic consult [e-consult]). This was done in response to long wait time for sleep clinic visits as well as delayed sleep study appointments. Since 2008 all consults are screened by sleep service to determine the next step in intervention. Based on chart review, the following steps are undertaken: (1) eligibility for portable versus in-lab sleep study is determined, and a sleep study order is placed accordingly, (2) positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy is prescribed for confirmed sleep apnea, and (3) need for in-person evaluation in the sleep clinic is determined, and the visit is scheduled. This study summarizes the 5-year trend in various aspects of access to sleep care after implementation of sleep telemedicine protocol at the Milwaukee VAMC. This is a retrospective system efficiency study. The electronic medical record was interrogated 5 years after starting the sleep telemedicine protocol to study annual trends in the following outcomes: (1) interval between sleep consult and prescription of PAP equipment, (2) total sleep consults, and (3) sleep clinic wait time. Two part-time sleep physicians provided sleep-related care at the Milwaukee VAMC between 2008 and 2012. During this period, the interval between sleep consult and PAP prescription decreased from ≥60 days to ≤7 days. This occurred in spite of an increase in total sleep consults and sleep studies. There was also a significant increase in data downloads, indicating overall improved follow-up. There was no change in clinic wait time of ≥60 days. Implementation of a sleep telemedicine protocol at the Milwaukee VAMC was associated with increased efficiency of sleep services. Timeliness of sleep management interventions for sleep apnea improved in spite of the increased volume of service.

Influence of the timing of cardiac catheterization and amount of contrast media on acute renal failure after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Mohsen Mirmohammad; Gharipour, Mojgan; Nilforoush, Peiman; Shamsolkotabi, Hamid; Sadeghi, Hamid Mirmohammad; Kiani, Amjad; Sadeghi, Pouya Mirmohammad; Farahmand, Niloufar

2011-04-01

There is limited data about the influence of timing of cardiac surgery in relation to diagnostic angiography and/or the impact of the amount of contrast media used during angiography on the occurance of acute renal failure (ARF). Therefore, in the present study the effect of the time interval between diagnostic angiography and cardiac surgery and also the amount of contrast media used during the diagnostic procedure on the incidence of ARF after cardiac surgery was investigated. Data of 1177 patients who underwent different types of cardiac surgeries after cardiac catheterization were prospectively examined. The influence of time interval between cardiac catheterization and surgery as well as the amount of contrast agent on postoperative ARF were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. The patients who progressed to ARF were more likely to have received a higher dose of contrast agent compared to the mean dose. However, the time interval between cardiac surgery and last catheterization was not significantly different between the patients with and without ARF (p = 0.05). Overall, postoperative peak creatinine was highest on day 0, then decreased and remained significantly unchanged after this period. Overall prevalence of acute renal failure during follow-up period had a changeable trend and had the highest rates in days 1 (53.57%) and 6 (52.17%) after surgery. Combined coronary bypass and valve surgery were the strongest predictor of postoperative ARF (OR: 4.976, CI = 1.613-15.355 and p = 0.002), followed by intra-aortic balloon pump insertion (OR: 6.890, CI = 1.482-32.032 and p = 0.009) and usage of higher doses of contrast media agent (OR: 1.446, CI = 1.033-2.025 and p = 0.031). Minimizing the amount of contrast agent has a potential role in reducing the incidence of postoperative ARF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, but delaying cardiac surgery after exposure to these agents might not have this protective effect.

Changes in genetic selection differentials and generation intervals in US Holstein dairy cattle as a result of genomic selection.

PubMed

García-Ruiz, Adriana; Cole, John B; VanRaden, Paul M; Wiggans, George R; Ruiz-López, Felipe J; Van Tassell, Curtis P

2016-07-12

Seven years after the introduction of genomic selection in the United States, it is now possible to evaluate the impact of this technology on the population. Selection differential(s) (SD) and generation interval(s) (GI) were characterized in a four-path selection model that included sire(s) of bulls (SB), sire(s) of cows (SC), dam(s) of bulls (DB), and dam(s) of cows (DC). Changes in SD over time were estimated for milk, fat, and protein yield; somatic cell score (SCS); productive life (PL); and daughter pregnancy rate (DPR) for the Holstein breed. In the period following implementation of genomic selection, dramatic reductions were seen in GI, especially the SB and SC paths. The SB GI reduced from ∼7 y to less than 2.5 y, and the DB GI fell from about 4 y to nearly 2.5 y. SD were relatively stable for yield traits, although modest gains were noted in recent years. The most dramatic response to genomic selection was observed for the lowly heritable traits DPR, PL, and SCS. Genetic trends changed from close to zero to large and favorable, resulting in rapid genetic improvement in fertility, lifespan, and health in a breed where these traits eroded over time. These results clearly demonstrate the positive impact of genomic selection in US dairy cattle, even though this technology has only been in use for a short time. Based on the four-path selection model, rates of genetic gain per year increased from ∼50-100% for yield traits and from threefold to fourfold for lowly heritable traits.

Changes in genetic selection differentials and generation intervals in US Holstein dairy cattle as a result of genomic selection

PubMed Central

García-Ruiz, Adriana; Cole, John B.; VanRaden, Paul M.; Wiggans, George R.; Ruiz-López, Felipe J.; Van Tassell, Curtis P.

2016-01-01

Seven years after the introduction of genomic selection in the United States, it is now possible to evaluate the impact of this technology on the population. Selection differential(s) (SD) and generation interval(s) (GI) were characterized in a four-path selection model that included sire(s) of bulls (SB), sire(s) of cows (SC), dam(s) of bulls (DB), and dam(s) of cows (DC). Changes in SD over time were estimated for milk, fat, and protein yield; somatic cell score (SCS); productive life (PL); and daughter pregnancy rate (DPR) for the Holstein breed. In the period following implementation of genomic selection, dramatic reductions were seen in GI, especially the SB and SC paths. The SB GI reduced from ∼7 y to less than 2.5 y, and the DB GI fell from about 4 y to nearly 2.5 y. SD were relatively stable for yield traits, although modest gains were noted in recent years. The most dramatic response to genomic selection was observed for the lowly heritable traits DPR, PL, and SCS. Genetic trends changed from close to zero to large and favorable, resulting in rapid genetic improvement in fertility, lifespan, and health in a breed where these traits eroded over time. These results clearly demonstrate the positive impact of genomic selection in US dairy cattle, even though this technology has only been in use for a short time. Based on the four-path selection model, rates of genetic gain per year increased from ∼50–100% for yield traits and from threefold to fourfold for lowly heritable traits. PMID:27354521

DNA and RNA profiling of excavated human remains with varying postmortem intervals.

PubMed

van den Berge, M; Wiskerke, D; Gerretsen, R R R; Tabak, J; Sijen, T

2016-11-01

When postmortem intervals (PMIs) increase such as with longer burial times, human remains suffer increasingly from the taphonomic effects of decomposition processes such as autolysis and putrefaction. In this study, various DNA analysis techniques and a messenger RNA (mRNA) profiling method were applied to examine for trends in nucleic acid degradation and the postmortem interval. The DNA analysis techniques include highly sensitive DNA quantitation (with and without degradation index), standard and low template STR profiling, insertion and null alleles (INNUL) of retrotransposable elements typing and mitochondrial DNA profiling. The used mRNA profiling system targets genes with tissue specific expression for seven human organs as reported by Lindenbergh et al. (Int J Legal Med 127:891-900, 27) and has been applied to forensic evidentiary traces but not to excavated tissues. The techniques were applied to a total of 81 brain, lung, liver, skeletal muscle, heart, kidney and skin samples obtained from 19 excavated graves with burial times ranging from 4 to 42 years. Results show that brain and heart are the organs in which both DNA and RNA remain remarkably stable, notwithstanding long PMIs. The other organ tissues either show poor overall profiling results or vary for DNA and RNA profiling success, with sometimes DNA and other times RNA profiling being more successful. No straightforward relations were observed between nucleic acid profiling results and the PMI. This study shows that not only DNA but also RNA molecules can be remarkably stable and used for profiling of long-buried human remains, which corroborate forensic applications. The insight that the brain and heart tissues tend to provide the best profiling results may change sampling policies in identification cases of degrading cadavers.

Histologic types of gastric cancer among migrants from the former Soviet Union and the general population in Germany: what kind of prevention do we need?

PubMed

Jaehn, Philipp; Holleczek, Bernd; Becher, Heiko; Winkler, Volker

2016-08-01

The incidence of gastric cancer (GC) is high among migrants from Eastern Europe and Asia, but a detailed picture of disease characteristics is missing. Our study examined the incidence of histologic types among resettlers from the former Soviet Union and the general population in Germany to draw conclusions on risk factors and possible prevention strategies. Between 1990 and 2009, all GC diagnoses among a cohort of 18 619 resettlers residing in the Saarland were identified in the Saarland Cancer Registry database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) of the entire Saarland population and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of resettlers compared with the Saarland population were calculated for types according to Laurén. In addition, ASRs and SIRs were modeled using Poisson's regression to investigate time trends. The ASR of intestinal GC in the Saarland population decreased over time, whereas the ASR of diffuse GC remained unchanged. Resettlers' incidence of intestinal GC was elevated among men [SIR: 3.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.05-4.50] and women (SIR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.61-4.79), whereas diffuse GC was elevated only among women (SIR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.07-3.69). No time trends for SIRs could be observed in regression analysis. Different trends of diffuse GC incidence in Germany and the USA underline the importance of environmental risk factors. The continuously elevated risk of GC among male resettlers is probably associated with risk factors affecting exclusively the intestinal type such as a low intake of fruit and vegetables and heavy alcohol consumption. Future prevention programs for resettlers should include dietary measures.

Cost trends among commercially insured and Medicare Advantage-insured patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 2006 through 2009.

PubMed

Dalal, Anand A; Liu, Fang; Riedel, Aylin A

2011-01-01

Few estimates of health care costs related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are available regarding commercially insured patients in the United States. The aims of this retrospective observational analysis of administrative data were to describe and compare health care resource use and costs related to COPD in the United States for patients with commercial insurance or Medicare Advantage with Part D benefits, and to assess cost trends over time. Patient-level and visit-level health care costs in the calendar years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 were assessed for patients with evidence of COPD. Generalized linear models adjusting for sex, age category, and geographic region were used to investigate cost trends over time for patients with Medicare or commercial insurance. Medical costs, which ranged from an annual mean of US$2382 (Medicare 2007) to US$3339 (commercial 2009) per patient, comprised the majority of total costs in all years for patients with either type of insurance. COPD-related costs were less for Medicare than commercial cohorts. In the multivariate analysis, total costs increased by approximately 6% per year for commercial insurance patients (cost ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001) and 5% per year for Medicare patients (cost ratio 1.05; 95% CI 1.03-1.07; P < 0.001). Costs for outpatient and emergency department visits increased significantly over time in both populations. Standard admission costs increased significantly for Medicare patients (cost ratio 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.05; P = 0.03), but not commercial patients, and costs for intensive care unit visits remained stable for both populations. COPD imposed a substantial economic burden on patients and the health care system, with costs increasing significantly in both the Medicare and commercial populations.

Obesity, abdominal obesity, physical activity, and caloric intake in US adults: 1988 to 2010.

PubMed

Ladabaum, Uri; Mannalithara, Ajitha; Myer, Parvathi A; Singh, Gurkirpal

2014-08-01

Obesity and abdominal obesity are associated independently with morbidity and mortality. Physical activity attenuates these risks. We examined trends in obesity, abdominal obesity, physical activity, and caloric intake in US adults from 1988 to 2010. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Average body mass index (BMI) increased by 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30-0.44) per year in both women and men. Average waist circumference increased by 0.37% (95% CI, 0.30-0.43) and 0.27% (95% CI, 0.22-0.32) per year in women and men, respectively. The prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity increased substantially, as did the prevalence of abdominal obesity among overweight adults. Younger women experienced the greatest increases. The proportion of adults who reported no leisure-time physical activity increased from 19.1% (95% CI, 17.3-21.0) to 51.7% (95% CI, 48.9-54.5) in women, and from 11.4% (95% CI, 10.0-12.8) to 43.5% (95% CI, 40.7-46.3) in men. Average daily caloric intake did not change significantly. BMI and waist circumference trends were associated with physical activity level but not caloric intake. The associated changes in adjusted BMIs were 8.3% (95% CI, 6.9-9.6) higher among women and 1.7% (95% CI, 0.68-2.8) higher among men with no leisure-time physical activity compared with those with an ideal level of leisure-time physical activity. Our analyses highlight important dimensions of the public health problem of obesity, including trends in younger women and in abdominal obesity, and lend support to the emphasis placed on physical activity by the Institute of Medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Ancient Glacial Diamictites to Track the Compositional Evolution of the Upper Continental Crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaschnig, R. M.; Rudnick, R. L.; McDonough, W. F.; Kaufman, A. J.; Valley, J. W.; Hu, Z.; Gao, S.

2014-12-01

V.M. Goldschmidt (1933) first suggested the use of Quaternary glacial till and loess to determine the average composition of the upper continental crust (UCC). We extend this approach back in time through the geochemical study of glacial diamictites from intervals of continental glaciation in the Paleozoic, Neoproterozoic, Paleoproterozoic, and Mesoarchean. The diamictites record fundamental changes in the bulk composition of UCC through time, with the largest change occurring at the end of the Archean. Post-Archean diamictites have progressively lower Eu/Eu* and concentrations of 1st row transition metals (Sc, Cr, V, Ni, Co) and higher Th and U concentrations. δ18O whole-rock values steadily increase through the Precambrian, with average values of 6.0 ± 1.6, 8.3 ± 0.4, 12.3 ± 0.9 per mil for the Mesoarchean, Paleoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic, respectively. All of these trends are consistent with production of a progressively more evolved UCC, which may reflect changes in the composition of primary crustal melts, as well as a change in the nature of intracrustal differentiation. Subtle increases in Lu/Hf through time imply the continual addition of juvenile crust from an increasingly depleted mantle reservoir, consistent with continuous continental growth rather than an Armstrong-like no-growth model, and suggesting that intracrustal differentiation is unlikely to be the sole driver of the other trends. In addition to these uni-directional trends, Paleoproterozoic diamictites, which are dominated by 2.8 to 2.6 Ga provenance, show unique chemical characteristics (e.g., lowest Nb/Ta and highest La/Lu and Th/Nb). These features may reflect a distinctive geodynamic setting for the Neoarchean period, which was arguably the largest pulse of crustal growth in Earth's history and was also accompanied by widespread cratonization.

Trends in single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix in United States.

PubMed

Machida, Hiroko; Blake, Erin A; Eckhardt, Sarah E; Takiuchi, Tsuyoshi; Grubbs, Brendan H; Mikami, Mikio; Roman, Lynda D; Matsuo, Koji

2018-03-01

To examine trends and characteristics of single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix. This is a retrospective observational study examining the United States population-based tumor registry (the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program). Time-specific trends in single marital status were examined in 3,294,208 women among 12 common female malignancies including 87,151 women with uterine cervical malignancy between 1973 and 2013. While the proportion of single women in the majority of malignancies increased during the study time, the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy significantly increased more than in other malignancies (29.3% in 2013 from 6.3% in 1973). There was a surge in the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy starting in the early 1990s, exhibiting the largest annual percentage rate change (APC) among all examined malignancies (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.6, 2.0; p<0.001). There was a significant decrease in the proportion of women aged <40 years with cervical malignancy between 1989 and 2013 (APC, -1.2%; 95% CI=-1.4, -1.0; p<0.001). However, when stratified by age, the proportion of single women aged ≥40 years increased significantly during the time (APC, 2.7%; 95% CI=2.3, 3.2; p<0.001) but did not in those who were <40 years (APC, 0.1%; 95% CI=-0.7, 0.6; p=0.850). The proportion of single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix has significantly increased in the past 4 decades. This increase was most dramatic in single women aged ≥40 years. Improving screening strategies in single women aged ≥40 years may help reduce the incidence of this malignancy. Copyright © 2018. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology

Time trends in the incidence of hysterectomy-corrected overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014.

PubMed

Faber, Mette Tuxen; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan; Aarslev, Peter Bo; Kjaer, Susanne K

2017-08-01

To investigate time trends in the incidence of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014, correcting for hysterectomy. Based on the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Registry we calculated hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer. Separate analyses for women <55years (defined as pre- and perimenopausal age) and women aged ≥55years (defined as postmenopausal age) and analyses allowing for different time trends before and after the study period midyear 1996 were performed. Log-linear Poisson models were used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The overall incidence of endometrial cancer decreased slightly from 1978 to 1995, but in the last two decades of the study period the incidence has been stable (APC=0.16; 95% CI: -0.19; 0.50). In the study period (1978-2014) type 1 endometrial cancer incidence decreased slightly (APC=-0.67; 95% CI:-0.83; -0.52), whereas the incidence of type 2 endometrial cancer increased substantially (APC=4.85; 95% CI: 4.47; 5.23). The decrease in type 1 endometrial cancer was most pronounced before 1996 in women younger than 55 years (APC=-2.79; 95% CI: -3.65; -1.91), while the largest increase in type 2 endometrial cancer was observed after 1996 (APC=6.42; 95% CI: 5.72; 7.12). Over a period of more than 35 years, the incidence of type 1 endometrial cancer decreased, mainly in pre- and perimenopausal women, while type 2 endometrial cancer incidence increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-08-01

To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Socioeconomic factors and mortality in emergency general surgery: trends over a 20-year period.

PubMed

Armenia, Sarah J; Pentakota, Sri Ram; Merchant, Aziz M

2017-05-15

Socioeconomic factors such as race, insurance, and income quartiles have been identified as independent risk factors in emergency general surgery (EGS), but this impact has not been studied over time. We sought to identify trends in disparities in EGS-related operative mortality over a 20-y period. The National Inpatient Sample was used to identify patient encounters coded for EGS in 1993, 2003, and 2013. Logistic regression models were used to examine the adjusted relationship between race, primary payer status, and median income quartiles and in-hospital mortality after adjusting for patients' age, gender, Elixhauser comorbidity score, and hospital region, size, and location-cum-teaching status. We identified 391,040 patient encounters. In 1993, Black race was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.20-1.53]) than White race, although this difference dissipated in subsequent years. Medicare, Medicaid, and underinsured patients had a higher odds of mortality than those with private insurance for the entire 20-y period; only the disparity in the underinsured decreased over time (1993, 1.63 [1.35-1.98]; 2013, 1.41 [1.20-1.67]). In 2003 (1.23 [1.10-1.38]) and 2013 (1.23 [1.11-1.37]), patients from the lowest income quartile were more likely to die after EGS than patients from the highest income quartile. Socioeconomic disparities in EGS-related operative morality followed inconsistent trends. Over time, while gaps in in-hospital mortality among Blacks and Whites have narrowed, disparities among patients belonging to lowest income quartile have worsened. Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries continued to experience higher odds of in-hospital mortality relative to those with private insurance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective study of physical activity and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Leitzmann, Michael F; Moore, Steven C; Peters, Tricia M; Lacey, James V; Schatzkin, Arthur; Schairer, Catherine; Brinton, Louise A; Albanes, Demetrius

2008-01-01

Introduction To prospectively examine the relation of total, vigorous and non-vigorous physical activity to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Methods We studied 32,269 women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project Follow-up Study. Usual physical activity (including household, occupational and leisure activities) throughout the previous year was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire. Postmenopausal breast cancer cases were identified through self-reports, death certificates and linkage to state cancer registries. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk and 95% confidence intervals of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with physical activity. Results During 269,792 person-years of follow-up from 1987 to 1998, 1506 new incident cases of postmenopausal breast cancer were ascertained. After adjusting for potential risk factors of breast cancer, a weak inverse association between total physical activity and postmenopausal breast cancer was suggested (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.21). That relation was almost entirely contributed by vigorous activity (relative risk comparing extreme categories = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.08). The inverse association with vigorous activity was limited to women who were lean (ie, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.54 to 0.85). In contrast, no association with vigorous activity was noted among women who were overweight or obese (ie, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 1.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.93 to 1.49; p for interaction = 0.008). Non-vigorous activity showed no relation to breast cancer (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 0.87 to 1.19; p for trend = 0.86). The physical activity and breast cancer relation was not specific to a certain hormone receptor subtype. Conclusions In this cohort of postmenopausal women, breast cancer risk reduction appeared to be limited to vigorous forms of activity; it was apparent among normal weight women but not overweight women, and the relation did not vary by hormone receptor status. Our findings suggest that physical activity acts through underlying biological mechanisms that are independent of body weight control. PMID:18976449

Physical activity and risk of myocardial infarction after the fourth decade of life.

PubMed

Lopes, Carla; Santos, Ana Cristina; Azevedo, Ana; Maciel, Maria Júlia; Barros, Henrique

2005-10-01

Scientific evidence shows that physically active people are protected from developing acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, the effect of the intensity, duration and type of activity remains unclear. To evaluate the relation between physical activity and MI, according to different intensity levels and types, we conducted a community-based case-control study, based on the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease (EPIcardis) study. We evaluated 381 consecutive cases of first MI (297 males; 84 females) and 726 community controls (310 males; 416 females), older than 39 years, selected by random digit dialing (70% participation rate among the controls). Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. For evaluation of physical activity, the questionnaire assessed all professional and leisure-time activities, specifying the type of exercise and the time spent in each activity. Activities were grouped according to intensity using energy expenditure at rest as the baseline (1.0 MET): very light (1.5 MET), light (2.5 MET), moderate (5.0 MET) and strenuous (7.0 MET). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression and separate models for each sex. Among men, after adjusting for age, education, family history of MI, energy intake and smoking, the OR (95% CI) were 0.51 (0.29-0.91), 0.36 (0.19-0.68), 0.53 (0.30-0.93), and 0.68 (0.39-1.20), for increasing quintiles of activity (p for trend = 0.199). Among women, after adjusting for the same variables plus parity and menopausal status, the OR (95% CI) were 0.51 (0.25-1.03), 0.37 (0.17-0.83), and 0.34 (0.14-0.83), for increasing quartiles of activity (p for trend = 0.006). We found a protective effect of leisure-time physical activity in men (p for trend < 0.001) and in women (p for trend = 0.038). In men, the U-shaped effect described for total physical activity was also found for occupational activities. The present study supports an independent protective effect of leisure-time physical activity, but not of occupational activities, for risk of myocardial infarction.

Nutrition surveillance using a small open cohort: experience from Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Altmann, Mathias; Fermanian, Christophe; Jiao, Boshen; Altare, Chiara; Loada, Martin; Myatt, Mark

2016-01-01

Nutritional surveillance remains generally weak and early warning systems are needed in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition. In order to enhance insight into nutritional surveillance, a community-based sentinel sites approach, known as the Listening Posts (LP) Project, was piloted in Burkina Faso by Action Contre la Faim (ACF). This paper presents ACF's experience with the LP approach and investigates potential selection and observational biases. Six primary sampling units (PSUs) were selected in each livelihood zone using the centric systematic area sampling methodology. In each PSU, 22 children aged between 6 and 24 months were selected by proximity sampling. The prevalence of GAM for each month from January 2011 to December 2013 was estimated using a Bayesian normal-normal conjugate analysis followed by PROBIT estimation. To validate the LP approach in detecting changes over time, the time trends of MUAC from LP and from five cross-sectional surveys were modelled using polynomial regression and compared by using a Wald test. The differences between prevalence estimates from the two data sources were used to assess selection and observational biases. The 95 % credible interval around GAM prevalence estimates using LP approach ranged between +6.5 %/-6.0 % on a prevalence of 36.1 % and +3.5 %/-2.9 % on a prevalence of 10.8 %. LP and cross-sectional surveys time trend models were well correlated (p = 0.6337). Although LP showed a slight but significant trend for GAM to decrease over time at a rate of -0.26 %/visit, the prevalence estimates from the two data sources showed good agreement over a 3-year period. The LP methodology has proved to be valid in following trends of GAM prevalence for a period of 3 years without selection bias. However, a slight observational bias was observed, requiring a periodical reselection of the sentinel sites. This kind of surveillance project is suited to use in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition where early warning systems are strongly needed. Advocacy is necessary to develop sustainable nutrition surveillance system and to support the use of surveillance data in guiding nutritional programs.

Analysis of trend changes in Northern African palaeo-climate by using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütz, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2010-05-01

Climate variability of Northern Africa is of high interest due to climate-evolutionary linkages under study. The reconstruction of the palaeo-climate over long time scales, including the expected linkages (> 3 Ma), is mainly accessible by proxy data from deep sea drilling cores. By concentrating on published data sets, we try to decipher rhythms and trends to detect correlations between different proxy time series by advanced mathematical methods. Our preliminary data is dust concentration, as an indicator for climatic changes such as humidity, from the ODP sites 659, 721 and 967 situated around Northern Africa. Our interest is in challenging the available time series with advanced statistical methods to detect significant trend changes and to compare different model assumptions. For that purpose, we want to avoid the rescaling of the time axis to obtain equidistant time steps for filtering methods. Additionally we demand an plausible description of the errors for the estimated parameters, in terms of confidence intervals. Finally, depending on what model we restrict on, we also want an insight in the parameter structure of the assumed models. To gain this information, we focus on Bayesian inference by formulating the problem as a linear mixed model, so that the expectation and deviation are of linear structure. By using the Bayesian method we can formulate the posteriori density as a function of the model parameters and calculate this probability density in the parameter space. Depending which parameters are of interest, we analytically and numerically marginalize the posteriori with respect to the remaining parameters of less interest. We apply a simple linear mixed model to calculate the posteriori densities of the ODP sites 659 and 721 concerning the last 5 Ma at maximum. From preliminary calculations on these data sets, we can confirm results gained by the method of breakfit regression combined with block bootstrapping ([1]). We obtain a significant change point around (1.63 - 1.82) Ma, which correlates with a global climate transition due to the establishment of the Walker circulation ([2]). Furthermore we detect another significant change point around (2.7 - 3.2) Ma, which correlates with the end of the Pliocene warm period (permanent El Niño-like conditions) and the onset of a colder global climate ([3], [4]). The discussion on the algorithm, the results of calculated confidence intervals, the available information about the applied model in the parameter space and the comparison of multiple change point models will be presented. [1] Trauth, M.H., et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 2009 [2] Wara, M.W., et al., Science, Vol. 309, 2005 [3] Chiang, J.C.H., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 37, 2009 [4] deMenocal, P., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 220, 2004

System implications of the ambulance arrival-to-patient contact interval on response interval compliance.

PubMed

Campbell, J P; Gratton, M C; Salomone, J A; Lindholm, D J; Watson, W A

1994-01-01

In some emergency medical services (EMS) system designs, response time intervals are mandated with monetary penalties for noncompliance. These times are set with the goal of providing rapid, definitive patient care. The time interval of vehicle at scene-to-patient access (VSPA) has been measured, but its effect on response time interval compliance has not been determined. To determine the effect of the VSPA interval on the mandated code 1 (< 9 min) and code 2 (< 13 min) response time interval compliance in an urban, public-utility model system. A prospective, observational study used independent third-party riders to collect the VSPA interval for emergency life-threatening (code 1) and emergency nonlife-threatening (code 2) calls. The VSPA interval was added to the 9-1-1 call-to-dispatch and vehicle dispatch-to-scene intervals to determine the total time interval from call received until paramedic access to the patient (9-1-1 call-to-patient access). Compliance with the mandated response time intervals was determined using the traditional time intervals (9-1-1 call-to-scene) plus the VSPA time intervals (9-1-1 call-to-patient access). Chi-square was used to determine statistical significance. Of the 216 observed calls, 198 were matched to the traditional time intervals. Sixty-three were code 1, and 135 were code 2. Of the code 1 calls, 90.5% were compliant using 9-1-1 call-to-scene intervals dropping to 63.5% using 9-1-1 call-to-patient access intervals (p < 0.0005). Of the code 2 calls, 94.1% were compliant using 9-1-1 call-to-scene intervals. Compliance decreased to 83.7% using 9-1-1 call-to-patient access intervals (p = 0.012). The addition of the VSPA interval to the traditional time intervals impacts system response time compliance. Using 9-1-1 call-to-scene compliance as a basis for measuring system performance underestimates the time for the delivery of definitive care. This must be considered when response time interval compliances are defined.

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

PubMed

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries; no changes or increases in prevalence are noted in some African countries. Reasons for time changes need to be investigated further; based on the results, various prevention measures have contributed to reductions, and further tailored HBV prevention is required to combat the disease on a global level. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2013-10-01

National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p < 0.0001). The overall mean residual transmission risk of HIV window phase donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Development of paediatric biochemistry centile charts as a complement to laboratory reference intervals.

PubMed

Loh, Tze Ping; Antoniou, Georgia; Baghurst, Peter; Metz, Michael P

2014-06-01

Age-specific paediatric reference intervals are used in interpretation of laboratory results. However, interpretation may be problematic when a child just crosses an age bracket and the difference between the original and the subsequent age-specific reference interval is large. Moreover, details about the physiological changes with age may be masked. For the 12 months ending 30 September 2013, results of 16 common clinical biochemistry tests of ambulatory paediatric patients aged 0-19, requested by primary care physicians, were retrospectively collected in a large pathology service, and used to construct smoothed centile charts using a penalised maximum likelihood method. From the developed centile charts, the concentrations of sodium, bicarbonate, creatinine, urate, total protein, and albumin all increased with increasing age of the children. In contrast, the concentrations of potassium, chloride, anion gap, calcium, phosphate and lactate dehydrogenase decreased with increasing age of the children. Changes in the concentrations of urea, alkaline phosphatase, glucose, and total cholesterol varied by age. Generally, the boys and girls shared similar trend patterns until 10-15 years of age, when variations in the age of onset of puberty and development caused the trends of some biochemical measures to differ. The paediatric biochemistry centile charts are intuitive tools to use. They complement age-specific reference intervals in the tracking, interpretation and discussion of laboratory results. They also enhance the understanding of underlying physiological changes in biochemistry in children.

Cretaceous system stratigraphy and shallow gas resources on the Fort Peck reservation, northeastern Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Monson, L.M.; Lund, D.F.

1991-06-01

Five shallow gas-bearing Cretaceous intervals have been identified on the Fort Peck Reservation of northeastern Montana. They include the Lower Judith River Sandstone and shaly sandstone intervals in the Gammon, Niobrara, Greenhorn, and Mowry Formations, Stratigraphic correlations have been carried from southwestern Saskatchewan through the Bowdoin gas field to the reservation. Sparse yet widely distributed gas shows confirm this relatively untested resource. Each of these gas-bearing intervals belongs to a recognized stratigraphic cycle characterized by thick shales overlain by progradational shaly sandstones and siltstones. The bottom cycle (Skull Creek to Mowry) contains considerable nonmarine deposits, especially within the Muddy Sandstonemore » interval, which is thickly developed in the eastern part of the reservation as a large valley-fill network. Some individual sandstone units are not continuous across the reservation. These, and those that correlate, appear to be related to paleotectonic features defined by northwest-trending lineament zones, and by lineament zone intersections. Northeast-trending paleotectonic elements exert secondary influence on stratigraphic isopachs. Circular tectonic elements, which carry through to basement, also have anomalous stratigraphic expression. Conventional drilling has not been conducive to properly testing the Cretaceous gas potential on the reservation, but empirical well-log analysis suggests that gas can be identified by various crossover techniques. The Judith River Formation did produce gas for field use at East Poplar.« less

Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

2012-02-01

The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

Mortality and survival patterns of childhood lymphomas: geographic and age-specific patterns in Southern-Eastern European and SEER/US registration data.

PubMed

Karalexi, Maria A; Georgakis, Marios K; Dessypris, Nick; Ryzhov, Anton; Zborovskaya, Anna; Dimitrova, Nadya; Zivkovic, Snezana; Eser, Sultan; Antunes, Luis; Sekerija, Mario; Zagar, Tina; Bastos, Joana; Demetriou, Anna; Agius, Domenic; Florea, Margareta; Coza, Daniela; Bouka, Evdoxia; Dana, Helen; Hatzipantelis, Emmanuel; Kourti, Maria; Moschovi, Maria; Polychronopoulou, Sophia; Stiakaki, Eftichia; Pourtsidis, Apostolos; Petridou, Eleni Th

2017-12-01

Childhood (0-14 years) lymphomas, nowadays, present a highly curable malignancy compared with other types of cancer. We used readily available cancer registration data to assess mortality and survival disparities among children residing in Southern-Eastern European (SEE) countries and those in the United States. Average age-standardized mortality rates and time trends of Hodgkin (HL) and non-Hodgkin (NHL; including Burkitt [BL]) lymphomas in 14 SEE cancer registries (1990-2014) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER, United States; 1990-2012) were calculated. Survival patterns in a total of 8918 cases distinguishing also BL were assessed through Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models. Variable, rather decreasing, mortality trends were noted among SEE. Rates were overall higher than that in SEER (1.02/10 6 ), which presented a sizeable (-4.8%, P = .0001) annual change. Additionally, remarkable survival improvements were manifested in SEER (10 years: 96%, 86%, and 90% for HL, NHL, and BL, respectively), whereas diverse, still lower, rates were noted in SEE. Non-HL was associated with a poorer outcome and an amphi-directional age-specific pattern; specifically, prognosis was inferior in children younger than 5 years than in those who are 10 to 14 years old from SEE (hazard ratio 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.96) and superior in children who are 5 to 9 years old from SEER/United States (hazard ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.88) than in those who are 10 to 14 years old. In conclusion, higher SEE lymphoma mortality rates than those in SEER, but overall decreasing trends, were found. Despite significant survival gains among developed countries, there are still substantial geographic, disease subtype-specific, and age-specific outcome disparities pointing to persisting gaps in the implementation of new treatment modalities and indicating further research needs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An epidemiologic overview of 13 years of firearm hospitalizations in Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Gross, Brian W; Cook, Alan D; Rinehart, Cole D; Lynch, Caitlin A; Bradburn, Eric H; Bupp, Katherine A; Morrison, Chet A; Rogers, Frederick B

2017-04-01

Gun violence is a controversial public health issue plagued by a lack of recent research. We sought to provide a 13-y overview of firearm hospitalizations in Pennsylvania, analyzing trends in mode, intent, and outcome. We hypothesized that no adjusted change in mortality or functional status at discharge (FSD) would be observed for gunshot wound (GSW) victims over the study period. All admissions to the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study database from 2003 to 2015 were queried. GSWs were identified by external cause-of-injury codes. Collected variables included patient demographics, firearm type, intent (assault and attempted suicide), FSD, and mortality. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models and ordinal regression analyses using generalized linear mixed models assessed the impact of admission year (continuous) on adjusted mortality and FSD score, respectively. Significance was set at P < 0.05. Of the 462,081 patients presenting to Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2003 to 2015, 19,342 were GSWs (4.2%). Handguns were the most common weapon of injury (n = 7007; 86.7%) among cases with specified firearm type. Most GSWs were coded as assaults (n = 15,415; 79.7%), with suicide attempts accounting 1866 hospitalizations (9.2%). Suicide attempts were most prevalent among young and middle-aged white males, whereas assaults were more common in young black males. Rates of firearm hospitalizations decreased over time (test of trend P = 0.001); however, admission year was not associated with improved adjusted survival (adjusted odds ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.01; P = 0.353) or FSD (adjusted odds ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.98-1.00; P = 0.089) while controlling for demographic and injury severity covariates. Temporal trends in outcomes suggest rates of firearm hospitalizations are declining in Pennsylvania; however, outcomes remain unchanged. To combat this epidemic, a multidisciplinary, demographic-specific approach to prevention should be the focus of future scientific pursuits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Residential magnetic fields predicted from wiring configurations: II. Relationships To childhood leukemia.

PubMed

Thomas, D C; Bowman, J D; Jiang, L; Jiang, F; Peters, J M

1999-10-01

Case-control data on childhood leukemia in Los Angeles County were reanalyzed with residential magnetic fields predicted from the wiring configurations of nearby transmission and distribution lines. As described in a companion paper, the 24-h means of the magnetic field's magnitude in subjects' homes were predicted by a physically based regression model that had been fitted to 24-h measurements and wiring data. In addition, magnetic field exposures were adjusted for the most likely form of exposure assessment errors: classic errors for the 24-h measurements and Berkson errors for the predictions from wire configurations. Although the measured fields had no association with childhood leukemia (P for trend=.88), the risks were significant for predicted magnetic fields above 1.25 mG (odds ratio=2.00, 95% confidence interval=1.03-3.89), and a significant dose-response was seen (P for trend=.02). When exposures were determined by a combination of predictions and measurements that corrects for errors, the odds ratio (odd ratio=2.19, 95% confidence interval=1.12-4.31) and the trend (p =.007) showed somewhat greater significance. These findings support the hypothesis that magnetic fields from electrical lines are causally related to childhood leukemia but that this association has been inconsistent among epidemiologic studies due to different types of exposure assessment error. In these data, the leukemia risks from a child's residential magnetic field exposure appears to be better assessed by wire configurations than by 24-h area measurements. However, the predicted fields only partially account for the effect of the Wertheimer-Leeper wire code in a multivariate analysis and do not completely explain why these wire codes have been so often associated with childhood leukemia. The most plausible explanation for our findings is that the causal factor is another magnetic field exposure metric correlated to both wire code and the field's time-averaged magnitude. Copyright 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A multicenter dose-escalation study of the analgesic and adverse effects of an oral cannabis extract (Cannador) for postoperative pain management.

PubMed

Holdcroft, Anita; Maze, Mervyn; Doré, Caroline; Tebbs, Susan; Thompson, Simon

2006-05-01

Cannabinoids have dose-related antinociceptive effects in animals. This clinical study aimed to investigate whether a single oral dose of cannabis plant extract (Cannador; Institute for Clinical Research, IKF, Berlin, Germany) could provide pain relief with minimal side effects for postoperative pain. Patients (aged 18-75 yr) were recruited and consented before surgery if patient-controlled analgesia was planned for provision of postoperative pain relief. Each patient received a single dose of 5, 10, or 15 mg Cannador if he or she had at least moderate pain after stopping patient-controlled analgesia. Starting with 5 mg, dose escalation was based on the number of patients requesting rescue analgesia and adverse effects. Pain relief, pain intensity, and side effects were recorded over 6 h and analyzed using tests for trend with dose. Rescue analgesia was requested by all 11 patients (100%) receiving 5 mg, 15 of 30 patient (50%) receiving 10 mg, and 6 of 24 patients (25%) receiving 15 mg Cannador (log rank test for trend in time to rescue analgesia with dose P < 0.001). There were also significant trends across the escalating dose groups for decreasing pain intensity at rest (P = 0.01), increasing sedation (P = 0.03), and more adverse events (P = 0.002). The number needed to treat to prevent one rescue analgesia request for the 10-mg and 15-mg doses, relative to 5 mg, were 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.1) and 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.7), respectively. The study was terminated because of a serious vasovagal adverse event in a patient receiving 15 mg. These significant dose-related improvements in rescue analgesia requirements in the 10 mg and 15 mg groups provide a number needed to treat that is equivalent to many routinely used analgesics without frequent adverse effects.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Trends of preterm birth and low birth weight in Japan: a one hospital-based study.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Naruse, Hiroo; Kashima, Saori; Murakoshi, Takeshi; Kato, Tsuguhiko; Inoue, Sachiko; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kawachi, Ichiro

2012-12-26

The proportions of preterm birth (PTB, ie., delivered before 37 gestational weeks) and low birth weight (LBW, ie., birth weight less than 2500 g at delivery) have been rising in developed countries. We sought to examine the factors contributing to the rise in Japan, with particular focus on the effects of obstetric interventions. We used a database maintained by one large regional hospital in Shizuoka, Japan. We restricted the analysis to mothers who delivered live singleton births from 1997 to 2010 (n = 19,221). We assessed the temporal trends in PTB and LBW, then divided the study period into four intervals and compared the proportions of PTB and LBW. We also compared the newborns' outcomes between the intervals. PTB, in particular medically indicated PTB, increased considerably. The increase was largely explained by changes in caesarean sections. The neonatal outcomes did not worsen, and instead the Apgar scores and proportions requiring neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission improved. In particular, the risks of NICU admission in the interval from 2007 to 2010 were decreased among all births [odds ratio (OR): 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75, 0.95] and medically indicated births (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.68) compared with the interval from 1997 to 2000. Despite the increases in PTB as well as LBW, the present study suggests benefits of obstetric interventions. Rather than simple categorization of PTB or LBW, indicators such as perinatal mortality or other outcomes may be more appropriate for evaluation of perinatal health in developed countries.

Temporal trends in genital warts among individuals covered by the public prescription drug insurance plan in the province of Quebec, Canada, from 1998 to 2007.

PubMed

Steben, Marc; Ouhoummane, Najwa; Rodier, Caroline; Brassard, Paul

2013-04-01

We assessed temporal trend in the incidence and prevalence of genital warts (GWs) in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1998 and 2007 as a baseline for future assessment of the impact of Quebec human papillomavirus vaccination program. Data on GWs were obtained from the linkage of the physician service claims and the public insurance drug plan databases. Genital warts were identified through a prescription of podofilox, a medical procedure code specific to GWs or a diagnosis code for viral warts followed by a prescription of imiquimod or fluorouracil within 2 weeks. An episode was considered incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval period free of GWs care. During the study period, a total of 27,138 episodes of GWs occurred among 24,267 individuals. The age-standardized incidence rate increased over time in men and women. The highest incidence was observed in women aged 20 to 24 years (391.9/100,000) and in men aged 25 to 29 years (383.3/100,000). Similar trends in prevalence were observed. The incidence and prevalence of GWs has increased among the population covered by the public insurance drug plan in Quebec.

Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in the Americas by region, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho de

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. The aim here was to evaluate trends in mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in three different regions of the Americas. This was a time series study in which mortality data from three different regions in the Americas from 2000 to the latest year available were analyzed. The source of data was the Mortality Information System of the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO). Data from 27 countries were included. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze trends. During the study period, the age-adjusted mortality rates for men were higher than those of females in all regions. North America (NA) showed lower rates than Latin America countries (LAC) and the Non-Latin Caribbean (NLC). Premature deaths (30-69 years old) accounted for 22.8% of all deaths in NA, 38.0% in LAC and 41.8% in NLC. The trend analysis also showed a significant decline in the three regions. NA accumulated the largest decline. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval was -3.9% [-4.2; -3.7] in NA; -1.8% [-2.2; -1.5] in LAC; and -1.8% [-2.7; -0.9] in NLC. Different mortality rates and reductions were observed among the three regions.

[Rising infant mortality in down syndrome in Chile from 1997 to 2013].

PubMed

Donoso, Enrique; Vera, Claudio

2016-11-01

Down syndrome (DS) is associated with higher child mortality especially due to cardiac malformations. To describe the trend in Chilean infant mortality in DS in the period 1997-2013 as compared to the general population without DS. Raw data on infant deaths were extracted from the yearbooks of vital statistics of the National Institute of Statistics. The mortality risk associated to DS, relative to population without DS was estimated. There were 456 deaths in infants with DS during the study period (59 early neonatal deaths, 70 late neonatal deaths and 327 post-neonatal deaths). The trend in infant mortality rate in DS was ascending (r: 0.53, p = 0.03), with an average annual percentage change of 4.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-9.0%; p < 0.01). Compared to the population without DS, the risk of early neonatal death was lower in DS (Odds ratio (OR) 0.14, 95% CI 0.11-0.19; p < 0.01) whereas the risk of post-neonatal death was higher (OR 4.74, 95% CI 3.85-5.85; p < 0.01). Infant mortality in Down syndrome has an increasing trend. We postulate that these children are not accessing timely cardiac surgery, the main therapeutic tool to reduce the death risk in the first year of life.

Monitoring evolving urban cluster systems using DMSP/OLS nighttime light data: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhao; Yang, Shan; Wang, Shuguang; Shen, Yan

2017-10-01

The assessment of the dynamic urban structure has been affected by lack of timely and accurate spatial information for a long period, which has hindered the measurements of structural continuity at the macroscale. Defense meteorological satellite program's operational linescan system (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light (NTL) data provide an ideal source for urban information detection with a long-time span, short-time interval, and wide coverage. In this study, we extracted the physical boundaries of urban clusters from corrected NTL images and quantitatively analyzed the structure of the urban cluster system based on rank-size distribution, spatial metrics, and Mann-Kendall trend test. Two levels of urban cluster systems in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR) were examined. We found that (1) in the entire YRDR, the urban cluster system showed a periodic process, with a significant trend of even distribution before 2007 but an unequal growth pattern after 2007, and (2) at the metropolitan level, vast disparities exist in four metropolitan areas for the fluctuations of Pareto's exponent, the speed of cluster expansion, and the dominance of core cluster. The results suggest that the extracted urban cluster information from NTL data effectively reflect the evolving nature of regional urbanization, which in turn can aid in the planning of cities and help achieve more sustainable regional development.

Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

PubMed

Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

2014-12-01

Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Relative sea level trend and variability in the central Mediterranean in the time span 1872-2014 from tide gauge data: implications for future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzidei, Marco; Vecchio, Antonio

2015-04-01

We used tidal data collected in the time span 1872-2014 from a set of historical and modern stations located in the central Mediterranean, along the coasts of Italy, France, Slovenia and Croatia. The longest records span across the last two or three centuries for the tidal stations of Genova, Marseille, Trieste and Venice. While data from Bakar, Dubrovink, Rovinji and Split, all located along the coast of the Adriatic sea, provide valid records for a time span about 50 years long. In addition to these stations, since 1998 become available for the Italian region new sea level data from the dense national tidal network (www.mareografico.it). These digital stations are collecting data continuously at 10 minute sampling interval with a nominal accuracy at 1 mm. Therefore, in addition to the historical stations, we have the opportunity to analyze a sea level data set that cover about the last 16 years. In this study we show and discuss the results of our analysis of sea level data for the central Mediterranean, providing new insights on sea level trend and variability for about the past 140 years. Finally, based on sea level data and IPCC reports, we provide future sea level projections for this region for the year 2100 with implications for coastal flooding of lowland areas.

Use of mobile phones in Norway and risk of intracranial tumours.

PubMed

Klaeboe, Lars; Blaasaas, Karl Gerhard; Tynes, Tore

2007-04-01

To test the hypothesis that exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields from mobile phones increases the incidence of gliomas, meningiomas and acoustic neuromas in adults. The incident cases were of patients aged 19-69 years who were diagnosed during 2001-2002 in Southern Norway. Population controls were selected and frequency-matched for age, sex, and residential area. Detailed information about mobile phone use was collected from 289 glioma (response rate 77%), 207 meningioma patients (71%), and 45 acoustic neuroma patients (68%) and from 358 (69%) controls. For regular mobile phone use, defined as use on average at least once a week or more for at least 6 months, the odds ratio was 0.6 (95% confidence interval 0.4-0.9) for gliomas, 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.5-1.1) for meningiomas and 0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0) for acoustic neuromas. Similar results were found with mobile phone use for 6 years or more for gliomas and acoustic neuromas. An exception was meningiomas, where the odds ratio was 1.2 (95% confidence interval 0.6-2.2). Furthermore, no increasing trend was observed for gliomas or acoustic neuromas by increasing duration of regular use, the time since first regular use or cumulative use of mobile phones. The results from the present study indicate that use of mobile phones is not associated with an increased risk of gliomas, meningiomas or acoustic neuromas.

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Lumbar Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003 to 2013

PubMed Central

Bernstein, David N.; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T.

2017-01-01

Study Design: Retrospective database analysis. Objective: The impact of the 2008-2009 economic downtown on elective lumbar spine surgery is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the effect of the economic downturn on the overall trends of elective lumbar spine surgery in the United States. Methods: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used in conjunction with US Census and macroeconomic data to determine historical trends. The economic downturn was defined as 2008 to 2009. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), were used in order to identify appropriate procedures. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. Results: From 2003 to 2012, there was a 19.8% and 26.1% decrease in the number of lumbar discectomies and laminectomies, respectively. Over the same time period, there was a 56.4% increase in the number of lumbar spinal fusions. The trend of elective lumbar spine surgeries per 100 000 persons in the US population remained consistent from 2008 to 2009. The number of procedures decreased by 4.5% from 2010 to 2011, 7.6% from 2011 to 2012, and 3.1% from 2012 to 2013. The R 2 value between the number of surgeries and the S&P 500 Index was statistically significant (P ≤ .05). Conclusions: The economic downturn did not affect elective lumbar fusions, which increased in total from 2003 to 2013. The relationship between the S&P 500 Index and surgical trends suggests that during recessions, individuals may utilize other means, such as insurance, to cover procedural costs and reduce out-of-pocket expenditures, accounting for no impact of the economic downturn on surgical trends. These findings can assist multiple stakeholders in better understanding the interconnectedness of macroeconomics, policy, and elective lumbar spine surgery trends. PMID:28660102

Suicide among children and adolescents in Canada: trends and sex differences, 1980-2008.

PubMed

Skinner, Robin; McFaull, Steven

2012-06-12

Suicide is the second leading cause of death for young Canadians (10-19 years of age)--a disturbing trend that has shown little improvement in recent years. Our objective was to examine suicide trends among Canadian children and adolescents. We conducted a retrospective analysis of standardized suicide rates using Statistics Canada mortality data for the period spanning from 1980 to 2008. We analyzed the data by sex and by suicide method over time for two age groups: 10-14 year olds (children) and 15-19 year olds (adolescents). We quantified annual trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC). We found an average annual decrease of 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.5 to -0.4) in the suicide rate for children and adolescents, but stratification by age and sex showed significant variation. We saw an increase in suicide by suffocation among female children (AAPC = 8.1%, 95% CI 6.0 to 10.4) and adolescents (AAPC = 8.0%, 95% CI 6.2 to 9.8). In addition, we noted a decrease in suicides involving poisoning and firearms during the study period. Our results show that suicide rates in Canada are increasing among female children and adolescents and decreasing among male children and adolescents. Limiting access to lethal means has some potential to mitigate risk. However, suffocation, which has become the predominant method for committing suicide for these age groups, is not amenable to this type of primary prevention.

Time-Resolved Influences of Functional DAT1 and COMT Variants on Visual Perception and Post-Processing

PubMed Central

Bender, Stephan; Rellum, Thomas; Freitag, Christine; Resch, Franz; Rietschel, Marcella; Treutlein, Jens; Jennen-Steinmetz, Christine; Brandeis, Daniel; Banaschewski, Tobias; Laucht, Manfred

2012-01-01

Background Dopamine plays an important role in orienting and the regulation of selective attention to relevant stimulus characteristics. Thus, we examined the influences of functional variants related to dopamine inactivation in the dopamine transporter (DAT1) and catechol-O-methyltransferase genes (COMT) on the time-course of visual processing in a contingent negative variation (CNV) task. Methods 64-channel EEG recordings were obtained from 195 healthy adolescents of a community-based sample during a continuous performance task (A-X version). Early and late CNV as well as preceding visual evoked potential components were assessed. Results Significant additive main effects of DAT1 and COMT on the occipito-temporal early CNV were observed. In addition, there was a trend towards an interaction between the two polymorphisms. Source analysis showed early CNV generators in the ventral visual stream and in frontal regions. There was a strong negative correlation between occipito-temporal visual post-processing and the frontal early CNV component. The early CNV time interval 500–1000 ms after the visual cue was specifically affected while the preceding visual perception stages were not influenced. Conclusions Late visual potentials allow the genomic imaging of dopamine inactivation effects on visual post-processing. The same specific time-interval has been found to be affected by DAT1 and COMT during motor post-processing but not motor preparation. We propose the hypothesis that similar dopaminergic mechanisms modulate working memory encoding in both the visual and motor and perhaps other systems. PMID:22844499

Inverse association between yoghurt intake and upper aerodigestive tract cancer risk in a Japanese population.

PubMed

Kawakita, Daisuke; Sato, Fumihito; Hosono, Satoyo; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Watanabe, Miki; Hanai, Nobuhiro; Hatooka, Shunzo; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa; Shinoda, Masayuki; Tajima, Kazuo; Murakami, Shingo; Tanaka, Hideo; Matsuo, Keitaro

2012-09-01

Although the combination of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking account for approximately 80% of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer risk, the role of dietary factors, including dairy products, in the risk of these cancers remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the association between dairy product intake and UADT cancer risk in a Japanese population. We conducted a case-control study in 959 patients with UADT cancer and 2877 sex- and age-matched noncancer control subjects who visited the Aichi Cancer Center in Nagoya, Japan. Data on lifestyle factors, including diet, were obtained by self-administered questionnaire. Associations were assessed by multivariate logistic regression models that considered potential confounders. We found a significant inverse association between yoghurt intake and UADT cancer risk with multivariate-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for <1 time/week, ≥ 1 time/week and <1 time/day, and ≥ 1 time/day consumption of yoghurt of 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.91), 0.67 (0.54-0.84), and 0.73 (0.55-0.95) relative to nonconsumers (P trend=0.005). When stratified by primary tumor site, this association was significant among patients with hypopharyngeal, laryngeal, and esophageal cancer. However, we saw no significant association between milk or butter intake and UADT cancer risk. In this study, we found that a high intake of yoghurt may lower the risk of developing UADT cancer in a Japanese population. Further investigation of this association is warranted.

Time-resolved influences of functional DAT1 and COMT variants on visual perception and post-processing.

PubMed

Bender, Stephan; Rellum, Thomas; Freitag, Christine; Resch, Franz; Rietschel, Marcella; Treutlein, Jens; Jennen-Steinmetz, Christine; Brandeis, Daniel; Banaschewski, Tobias; Laucht, Manfred

2012-01-01

Dopamine plays an important role in orienting and the regulation of selective attention to relevant stimulus characteristics. Thus, we examined the influences of functional variants related to dopamine inactivation in the dopamine transporter (DAT1) and catechol-O-methyltransferase genes (COMT) on the time-course of visual processing in a contingent negative variation (CNV) task. 64-channel EEG recordings were obtained from 195 healthy adolescents of a community-based sample during a continuous performance task (A-X version). Early and late CNV as well as preceding visual evoked potential components were assessed. Significant additive main effects of DAT1 and COMT on the occipito-temporal early CNV were observed. In addition, there was a trend towards an interaction between the two polymorphisms. Source analysis showed early CNV generators in the ventral visual stream and in frontal regions. There was a strong negative correlation between occipito-temporal visual post-processing and the frontal early CNV component. The early CNV time interval 500-1000 ms after the visual cue was specifically affected while the preceding visual perception stages were not influenced. Late visual potentials allow the genomic imaging of dopamine inactivation effects on visual post-processing. The same specific time-interval has been found to be affected by DAT1 and COMT during motor post-processing but not motor preparation. We propose the hypothesis that similar dopaminergic mechanisms modulate working memory encoding in both the visual and motor and perhaps other systems.

Triage sepsis alert and sepsis protocol lower times to fluids and antibiotics in the ED.

PubMed

Hayden, Geoffrey E; Tuuri, Rachel E; Scott, Rachel; Losek, Joseph D; Blackshaw, Aaron M; Schoenling, Andrew J; Nietert, Paul J; Hall, Greg A

2016-01-01

Early identification of sepsis in the emergency department (ED), followed by adequate fluid hydration and appropriate antibiotics, improves patient outcomes. We sought to measure the impact of a sepsis workup and treatment protocol (SWAT) that included an electronic health record (EHR)-based triage sepsis alert, direct communication, mobilization of resources, and standardized order sets. We conducted a retrospective, quasiexperimental study of adult ED patients admitted with suspected sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock. We defined a preimplementation (pre-SWAT) group and a postimplementation (post-SWAT) group and further broke these down into SWAT A (septic shock) and SWAT B (sepsis with normal systolic blood pressure). We performed extensive data comparisons in the pre-SWAT and post-SWAT groups, including demographics, systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, time to intravenous fluids bolus, time to antibiotics, length-of-stay times, and mortality rates. There were 108 patients in the pre-SWAT group and 130 patients in the post-SWAT group. The mean time to bolus was 31 minutes less in the postimplementation group, 51 vs 82 minutes (95% confidence interval, 15-46; P value < .01). The mean time to antibiotics was 59 minutes less in the postimplementation group, 81 vs 139 minutes (95% confidence interval, 44-74; P value < .01). Segmented regression modeling did not identify secular trends in these outcomes. There was no significant difference in mortality rates. An EHR-based triage sepsis alert and SWAT protocol led to a significant reduction in the time to intravenous fluids and time to antibiotics in ED patients admitted with suspected sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs

PubMed Central

Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test. PMID:29538373

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs.

PubMed

Wen, Haoyu; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test.

Monitoring volcano activity through Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassisi, C.; Montalto, P.; Prestifilippo, M.; Aliotta, M.; Cannata, A.; Patanè, D.

2013-12-01

During 2011-2013, Mt. Etna was mainly characterized by cyclic occurrences of lava fountains, totaling to 38 episodes. During this time interval Etna volcano's states (QUIET, PRE-FOUNTAIN, FOUNTAIN, POST-FOUNTAIN), whose automatic recognition is very useful for monitoring purposes, turned out to be strongly related to the trend of RMS (Root Mean Square) of the seismic signal recorded by stations close to the summit area. Since RMS time series behavior is considered to be stochastic, we can try to model the system generating its values, assuming to be a Markov process, by using Hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are a powerful tool in modeling any time-varying series. HMMs analysis seeks to recover the sequence of hidden states from the observed emissions. In our framework, observed emissions are characters generated by the SAX (Symbolic Aggregate approXimation) technique, which maps RMS time series values with discrete literal emissions. The experiments show how it is possible to guess volcano states by means of HMMs and SAX.

Effect of time between x-irradiation and chemotherapy on the growth of three solid mouse tumors. II. Cyclophosphamide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Twentyman, P.R.; Kallman, R.F.; Brown, J.M.

1979-09-01

Experiments have been carried out to determine the effect of different time intervals between the administration of x-radiation (1200 rad) and cyclophosphamide (100 mg/kg) on the growth delay produced in 3 mouse tumors. The tumors used were the EMT6 tumor in BALB/c mice and the KHT and RIF-1 sarcomas in C3H mice. All tumors were grown intramuscularly in the gastrocnemius muscle and treatment was carried out at a mean tumor weight of 450 mg. Time to reach 2X (for KHT) or 4X (for EMT6 and RIF-1) treatment volume was used as the endpoint of response. The drug was administered intraperitoneallymore » either 24, 6, or 2 hr before radiation, immediately before the start of radiation, or 3, 6, or 24 hr after radiation. All irradiations were carried out in unanesthetized mice. For the RIF-1, EMT6, and KHT tumors, the growth delays due to the drug alone were 11, 4.5, and 12 days, respectively. In the RIF-1 system, the growth delays following combination treatment tended to be longer than predicted by the addition of the single agent delays. For the KHT tumor, the opposite trend was seen, whereas in EMT6, there was no significant trend in either direction. No consistent dependence upon the timing between irradiation and drug administration was seen from system to system.« less

Ostracod Body Size Change Across Space and Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolen, L.; Llarena, L. A.; Saux, J.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

2014-12-01

Many factors drive evolution, although it is not always clear which factors are more influential. Miller et al. (2009) found that there is a change in geographic disparity in diversity in marine biotas over time. We tested if there was also geographic disparity in body size during different epochs. We used marine ostracods, which are tiny crustaceans, as a study group for this analysis. We also studied which factor is more influential in body size change: distance or time. We compared the mean body size from different geologic time intervals as well as the mean body size from different locations for each epoch. We grouped ostracod occurrences from the Paleobiology Database into 10º x 10º grid cells on a paleogeographic map. Then we calculated the difference in mean size and the distance between the grid cells containing specimens. Our size data came from the Ellis & Messina"Catalogue of Ostracod" as well as the"Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology". Sizes were calculated by applying the formula for the volume of an ellipsoid to three linear dimensions of the ostracod carapace (anteroposterior, dorsoventral, and right-left lengths). Throughout this analysis we have come to the realization that there is a trend in ostracods towards smaller size over time. Therefore there is also a trend through time of decreasing difference in size between occurrences in different grid cells. However, if time is not taken into account, there is no correlation between size and geographic distance. This may be attributed to the fact that one might not expect a big size difference between locations that are far apart but still at a similar latitude (for example, at the equator). This analysis suggests that distance alone is not the main factor in driving changes in ostracod size over time.

Quantification of fetal magnetoencephalographic activity in low-risk fetuses using burst duration and interburst interval.

PubMed

Vairavan, Srinivasan; Govindan, Rathinaswamy B; Haddad, Naim; Preissl, Hubert; Lowery, Curtis L; Siegel, Eric; Eswaran, Hari

2014-07-01

To identify quantitative MEG indices of spontaneous brain activity for fetal neurological maturation in normal pregnancies and examine the effect of fetal state on these indices. Spontaneous MEG brain activity was examined in 22 low-risk fetal recordings with gestational age (GA) ranging from 30 to 37 weeks. As major quantitative characteristics of spontaneous activity, burst duration (BD) and interburst interval (IBI) were studied in correlation with GA and fetal state. IBI showed a decrease with gestational age (-0.21 s/week, P=0.0031). This trend was only maintained in the quiet-sleep state. With respect to BD, no significant trends were detected with GA and state. IBI can be quantified as a fetal brain maturational parameter. The decrease in IBI over gestation was similar to the trend reported in the preterm neonatal EEG studies. Quiet sleep could be the optimal state to study such MEG maturational indices. With further investigation, indices extracted from spontaneous fetal brain activity may serve as an early warning for fetal neurological distress. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stapler vs suture closure of pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Wei; Lv, Ran; Wang, Xianfa; Mou, Yiping; Cai, Xiujun; Herr, Ingrid

2010-10-01

Suture closure and stapler closure of the pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy are the techniques used most often. The ideal choice remains a matter of debate. Five bibliographic databases covering 1970 to July 2009 were searched. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Stapler closure was performed in 671 patients, while suture closure was conducted in 1,615 patients. The pancreatic fistula rate ranged from 0% to 40.0% for stapler closure of the pancreatic stump and from 9.3% to 45.7% for the suture closure technique. There were no significant difference between the stapler and suture closure groups with respect to the pancreatic fistula formation rate (22.1% vs 31.2%; odds ratio, .85; 95% confidence interval, .66-1.08), although there was a trend toward favoring stapler closure. In 4 studies including 437 patients, stapler closure was associated with a trend (not statistically significant) toward a reduction in intra-abdominal abscess (odds ratio, .53; 95% confidence interval, .24-1.15). No significant differences occur between suture and stapler closure with respect to the pancreatic fistula or intra-abdominal abscess after distal pancreatectomy, though there is a trend favoring stapler closure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental trends in extinction during the Paleozoic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.

1987-01-01

Extinction intensities calculated from 505 Paleozoic marine assemblages divided among six environmental zones and 40 stratigraphic intervals indicate that whole communities exhibit increasing extinction offshore but that genera within individual taxonomic classes tend to have their highest extinction onshore. The offshore trend at the community level results from a concentration of genera in classes with low characteristic extinction rates in nearshore environments. This finding is consistent with the ecologic expectation that organisms inhabiting unpredictably fluctuating environments should suffer more extinction than counterparts living under more predictably equitable conditions.

Rural and urban breastfeeding initiation trends in low-income women in North Carolina from 2003 to 2007.

PubMed

Lynch, Suzanne; Bethel, Jeffrey; Chowdhury, Najmul; Moore, Justin B

2012-05-01

Breastfeeding has extensive health benefits for both infants and mothers. Despite these benefits, a significant number of women, disproportionately low-income women, do not initiate breastfeeding. Previous research has also demonstrated that breastfeeding prevalence varies by urbanicity level. The objective was to examine race/ethnicity and urbanicity trends in breastfeeding initiation among low-income women in North Carolina from 2003 to 2007. Breastfeeding initiation data from the North Carolina Pregnancy Nutrition Surveillance System were utilized, with responses from 240,054 women over the 5-year period. Overall, 65.4% of women in mixed-urban counties and 62.1% of women in urban counties initiated breastfeeding compared to only 49.8% of women in rural counties. The disparity between rural and urban counties widened over time, with urban and mixed-urban counties making significantly greater gains in breastfeeding initiation than rural counties. Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women had 6.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.99-6.36) and 1.4 (95% CI, 1.46-1.53) times the odds of initiating breastfeeding as non-Hispanic blacks, respectively. Finally, stratified multivariate regression models identified that the association between race/ethnicity and breastfeeding varied by urbanicity level. The current study provides a clearer picture of rural and urban breastfeeding trends within North Carolina and has implications for states with similar racial/ethnic and urbanicity levels. The research determined that women in rural areas, particularly non-Hispanic blacks, are less likely to initiate breastfeeding. Increased emphasis should be placed on developing breastfeeding interventions for rural communities, particularly targeting the non-Hispanic black population.

Soil resources, land cover changes and rural areas: towards a spatial mismatch?

PubMed

Ferrara, Agostino; Salvati, Luca; Sabbi, Alberto; Colantoni, Andrea

2014-04-15

The present study analyzes the impact of long-term urban expansion on soil depletion in Emilia-Romagna, an agricultural-specialized region of northern Italy. Using settlement density maps at three points in time (1945, 1971 and 2001) dense and diffused urbanization trends were assessed and correlated with soil quality. Non-urbanized land decreased from 11.8% in 1945 to 6.3% in 2001. Urbanization dynamics between 1945 and 1971 reflect the increase of dense settlements around pre-existing urban centers. To the contrary, a discontinuous, low- and medium-density urban expansion along the road network and in the most fertile lowland areas was observed between 1971 and 2001. Overall, urbanization consumed soils with progressively higher quality. However, a diverging trend was observed in the two investigated time intervals: soil with high quality was occupied by compact and dense settlements during 1945-1971 and by discontinuous, medium- and low-density settlements during 1971-2001. These findings document the polarization in areas with low and high soil capital and may reflect disparities in agricultural production and increasing environmental degradation. Moreover, the analysis shows a diverging trend between land and soil consumption patterns suggesting that the edification of pervious land is an unreliable indicator of soil quality depletion. Taken together, the results of this study illustrate the (increasing) spatial mismatch between agricultural land and high-quality soils as a consequence of urbanization-driven landscape transformations and may inform measures to contain soil depletion driven by economic growth. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

2006-01-01

Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

12 min/week of high-intensity interval training reduces aortic reservoir pressure in individuals with metabolic syndrome: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Ramos, Joyce S; Dalleck, Lance C; Ramos, Maximiano V; Borrani, Fabio; Roberts, Llion; Gomersall, Sjaan; Beetham, Kassia S; Dias, Katrin A; Keating, Shelley E; Fassett, Robert G; Sharman, James E; Coombes, Jeff S

2016-10-01

Decreased aortic reservoir function leads to a rise in aortic reservoir pressure that is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events. Although there is evidence that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) would be useful to improve aortic reservoir pressure, the optimal dose of high-intensity exercise to improve aortic reservoir function has yet to be investigated. Therefore, this study compared the effect of different volumes of HIIT and moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) on aortic reservoir pressure in participants with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Fifty individuals with MetS were randomized into one of the following 16-week training programs: MICT [n = 17, 30 min at 60-70% peak heart rate (HRpeak), five times/week]; 4 × 4-min high-intensity interval training (4HIIT) (n = 15, 4 × 4 min bouts at 85-95% HRpeak, interspersed with 3 min of active recovery at 50-70% HRpeak, three times/week); and 1 × 4-min high-intensity interval training (1HIIT) (n = 18, 1 × 4 min bout at 85-95% HRpeak, three times/week). Aortic reservoir pressure was calculated from radial applanation tonometry. Although not statistically significant, there was a trend for a small-to-medium group × time interaction effect on aortic reservoir pressure, indicating a positive adaptation following 1HIIT compared with 4HIIT and MICT [F (2,46) = 2.9, P = 0.07, η = 0.06]. This is supported by our within-group analysis wherein only 1HIIT significantly decreased aortic reservoir pressure from pre to postintervention (pre-post: 1HIIT 33 ± 16 to 31 ± 13, P = 0.03; MICT 29 ± 9-28 ± 8, P = 0.78; 4HIIT 28 ± 10-30 ± 9 mmHg, P = 0.10). Three sessions of 4 min of high-intensity exercise per week (12 min/week) was sufficient to improve aortic reservoir pressure, and thus may be a time-efficient exercise modality for reducing cardiovascular risk in individuals with MetS.

Meat intake and reproductive parameters among young men.

PubMed

Afeiche, Myriam C; Williams, Paige L; Gaskins, Audrey J; Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Swan, Shanna H; Chavarro, Jorge E

2014-05-01

In the United States, anabolic sex steroids are administered to cattle for growth promotion. There is concern regarding the reproductive consequences of this practice in men who eat beef. We investigated whether meat consumption was associated with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormone levels in young men. Semen samples were obtained from 189 men aged 18-22 years. Diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. We used linear regression to analyze the cross-sectional associations of meat intake with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormones while adjusting for potential confounders. There was an inverse relation between processed red meat intake and total sperm count. The adjusted relative differences in total sperm counts for men in increasing quartiles of processed meat intake were 0 (ref), -3 (95% confidence interval = -67 to 37), -14 (-82 to 28), and -78 (-202 to -5) million (test for trend, P = 0.01). This association was strongest among men with abstinence time less than 2 days and was driven by a strong inverse relation between processed red meat intake and ejaculate volume (test for trend, P = 0.003). In our population of young men, processed meat intake was associated with lower total sperm count. We cannot distinguish whether this association is because of residual confounding by abstinence time or represents a true biological effect.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Language and country preponderance trends in MEDLINE and its causes.

PubMed

Loria, Alvar; Arroyo, Pedro

2005-07-01

The authors characterized the output of MEDLINE papers by language and country of publication during a thirty-four-year time period. We classified MEDLINE's journal articles by country of publication (Anglos/Non-Anglos) and language (English/Non-English) for the years 1966 and from 1970 to 2000 at five-year intervals. Eight English-speaking countries were considered Anglos. Linear regression analysis of number of papers versus time was performed. The global number of papers increased linearly at a rate of 8,142 papers per year. Anglo and English papers also increased linearly (6,740 and 9,199, respectively). Journals of Non-Anglo countries accounted for 25% of the English language increase (2,438 per year). Only Non-English papers decreased at a rate of 1,056 fewer papers per year. These trends have led to overwhelming shares of English and Anglo papers in MEDLINE. In 2000, 68% of all papers were published in the 8 Anglo countries and 90% were written in English. The Anglo and English preponderances appear to be a consequence of at least two phenomena: (1) editorial policy changes in MEDLINE and in some journals from Non-Anglo countries and (2) factors affecting Non-Anglo researchers in the third world (publication constraints, migration, and undersupport). These are tentative conclusions that need confirmation.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide in 5 South African Cities: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E.

2014-01-01

Objective. We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa’s Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. Methods. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. Results. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Conclusions. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period. PMID:24432917

Trends in hysterectomy rates among women veterans in the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Katon, Jodie G; Gray, Kristen; Callegari, Lisa; Gardella, Carolyn; Gibson, Carolyn; Ma, Erica; Lynch, Kristine E; Zephyrin, Laurie

2017-10-01

Prior studies demonstrate a higher prevalence of hysterectomy among veterans compared with nonveterans. While studies identify overall decreasing hysterectomy rates in the United States, none report rates of hysterectomy among women veterans. Given the increasing numbers of women veterans using Veterans Affairs health care, there is an ongoing need to ensure high-quality gynecology care. Therefore, it is important to examine current hysterectomy trends, including proportion of minimally invasive surgeries, among veterans using Veterans Affairs health care. Our objective was to describe hysterectomy trends and utilization of minimally invasive hysterectomy in the Veterans Affairs healthcare system. This longitudinal study used Veterans Affairs clinical and administrative data from fiscal year 2008 to 2014 to identify hysterectomies provided or paid for by Veterans Affairs. Crude and age-adjusted hysterectomy rates were calculated by indication (benign or malignant), mode (abdominal, laparoscopic, vaginal, robotic assisted, unspecified), and source of care (provided vs paid for by Veterans Affairs). Mode and indication for hysterectomy were classified using International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, codes. The distribution of hysterectomy mode in each year was calculated by indication and source of care. Between fiscal year 2008 and fiscal year 2014, the total hysterectomy rate decreased from 4.0 per 1000 to 2.6 per 1000 unique women veteran Veterans Affairs users. Age-adjusted rates of abdominal hysterectomy for benign indications decreased over the study period from 1.54 per 1000 (95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.69) to 0.77 per 1000 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.85) for procedures provided by Veterans Affairs and 0.77 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.85) to 0.29 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.34) for those paid for by Veterans Affairs. Among hysterectomies for benign indications provided by (n = 5296) or paid for (n = 2610) by Veterans Affairs, the percentage of hysterectomies performed abdominally decreased from 67.2% to 46.8% and from 68.9% to 57.6%, respectively. These findings suggest that gynecology care provided within Veterans Affairs has kept pace with national trends in reducing hysterectomy rates and increasing utilization of minimally invasive surgical techniques. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Two Hour Evaluation and Referral Model for Shorter Turnaround Times in the emergency department.

PubMed

Burke, John A; Greenslade, Jaimi; Chabrowska, Jadwiga; Greenslade, Katherine; Jones, Sally; Montana, Jacqueline; Bell, Anthony; O'Connor, Alan

2017-06-01

The objective of this study was to assess the implementation of a novel ED model of care, which combines clinical streaming, team-based assessment and early senior consultation to reduce length of stay. A pre-post-intervention study was used to compare ED performance following an extensive clinical redesign programme. Clinical teams and work sequences were reconfigured to promote the role of the staff specialist, with a focus on earlier decisions regarding disposition. Primary outcome measures were ED length of stay and National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) compliance. Secondary outcomes included referral and workup times, wait times by triage category, ambulance offload times, ward discharges and unit transfers within 24 h of admission, representation within 48 h, and Medical Emergency Response Team (MERT) calls within 24 h of admission. Two seasonally matched 26 week intervals were compared with adjustment for demographics, triage category and arrival by ambulance. Overall, there was an 18.4% rise in NEAT performance (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.7-19.1) while ED length of stay decreased by a total of 86.8 min (95% CI: 83.6-90.1). Time series analysis did not suggest any preexisting trends to explain these results. The average time to referral decreased by 74.7 min (95% CI: 69.8-79.6) and waiting times decreased across all triage categories. Rates of MERT activation and unplanned representation were unchanged. A facilitated team leader role for senior doctors can help to reduce length of stay by via early disposition, without significant risks to the patient. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

The effect of liquor licensing restrictions on assault: a quasi-experimental study in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Menéndez, Patricia; Kypri, Kypros; Weatherburn, Don

2017-02-01

To determine whether restrictions on the availability of alcohol in two inner-city entertainment areas in Sydney, Australia (1) reduced the incidence of assault in those areas, (2) increased the incidence of assault in nearby areas (where the restrictions did not apply), (3) resulted in a net reduction in overall levels of assault (4) and/or whether the reductions in assault were most pronounced during the daily time-periods when liquor trading restrictions were in operation. Structural time-series modelling was used to estimate and compare trends in assault in areas/times affected by the new restrictions on alcohol availability with trends in assault in areas unaffected by the new restrictions. Sydney, Australia. The primary outcome measure was the police-recorded monthly incidence of non-domestic assault in the 78 months between January 2009 and June 2015. Following the reforms, we found reductions in assaults of 45% [beta = -0.599, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.107, -0.091] and 22% (beta =0.260, 95% CI = -0.397, -0.123), respectively, in the Kings Cross and Sydney CBD Entertainment Precincts. In the Kings Cross Entertainment Precinct, reductions in assault were observed in all three daily time-periods. In the Sydney CBD Entertainment Precinct reductions in assault were observed only in the second and third daily time-periods. Assaults did not increase in entertainment areas adjacent to or within easy reach of the target areas. Restrictions on the availability of alcohol appear to reduce the incidence of assault. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

On baseline corrections and uncertainty in response spectrafor baseline variations commonly encountered in digital accelerograph records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akkar, Sinan; Boore, David M.

2009-01-01

Most digital accelerograph recordings are plagued by long-period drifts, best seen in the velocity and displacement time series obtained from integration of the acceleration time series. These drifts often result in velocity values that are nonzero near the end of the record. This is clearly unphysical and can lead to inaccurate estimates of peak ground displacement and long-period spectral response. The source of the long-period noise seems to be variations in the acceleration baseline in many cases. These variations could be due to true ground motion (tilting and rotation, as well as local permanent ground deformation), instrumental effects, or analog-to-digital conversion. Very often the trends in velocity are well approximated by a linear trend after the strong shaking subsides. The linearity of the trend in velocity implies that no variations in the baseline could have occurred after the onset of linearity in the velocity time series. This observation, combined with the lack of any trends in the pre-event motion, allows us to compute the time interval in which any baseline variations could occur. We then use several models of the variations in a Monte Carlo procedure to derive a suite of baseline-corrected accelerations for each noise model using records from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and several earthquakes in Turkey. Comparisons of the mean values of the peak ground displacements, spectral displacements, and residual displacements computed from these corrected accelerations for the different noise models can be used as a guide to the accuracy of the baseline corrections. For many of the records considered here the mean values are similar for each noise model, giving confidence in the estimation of the mean values. The dispersion of the ground-motion measures increases with period and is noise-model dependent. The dispersion of inelastic spectra is greater than the elastic spectra at short periods but approaches that of the elastic spectra at longer periods. The elastic spectra from the most basic processing, in which only the pre-event mean is removed from the acceleration time series, do not diverge from the baseline-corrected spectra until periods of 10-20 sec or more for the records studied here, implying that for many engineering purposes elastic spectra can be used from records with no baseline correction or filtering.

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Cervical Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003-2013.

PubMed

Bernstein, David N; Jain, Amit; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

2016-12-01

To analyze overall trends of elective cervical spine surgery in the United States from 2003 to 2013 with the goal of determining whether the economic downturn had an impact. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification were used to identify elective cervical spine surgery procedures in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003 to 2013. National Health Expenditure, gross domestic product, and S&P 500 Index were used as measures of economic performance. The economic downturn was defined as 2008-2009. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. Linear regressions were completed to determine the association between surgery trends and economic conditions. From 2003 to 2013, posterior cervical fusions saw a 102.7% increase. During the same time frame, there was a 7.4% and 14.7% decrease in the number of anterior cervical diskectomy and fusions (ACDFs) and posterior decompressions, respectively. The trend of elective cervical spine surgeries per 100,000 persons in the U.S. population may have been affected by the economic downturn from 2008 to 2009 (-0.03% growth). The percentage of procedures paid for by private insurance decreased from 2003 to 2013 for all ACDFs, posterior cervical fusions, and posterior decompressions. The linear regression coefficients (β) and R 2 values between the number of surgeries and each of the macroeconomic factors analyzed were not statistically significant. The overall elective cervical spine surgery trend was not likely impacted by the economic downturn. Posterior cervical fusions grew significantly from 2003 to 2013, whereas ACDFs and posterior decompressions decreased. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Emerging trends in surgical and adjuvant radiation therapies among women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ.

PubMed

Shiyanbola, Oyewale O; Sprague, Brian L; Hampton, John M; Dittus, Kim; James, Ted A; Herschorn, Sally; Gangnon, Ronald E; Weaver, Donald L; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2016-09-15

The use of surgery and radiation therapy in treating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is directed by treatment guidelines and evidence from research. This study investigated recent patterns in DCIS treatment by demographic factors. Data for women diagnosed with DCIS between 1998 and 2011 (n = 416,232) in the National Cancer Data Base were assessed for trends in treatment patterns by age group, calendar year, ancestral/ethnic group, and geographic region. The likelihood of receiving specific treatment modalities was analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. DCIS cases were most frequently treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and adjuvant radiation (45.6%). After an initial rise, the use of adjuvant radiation after BCS plateaued at approximately 70% after 2007, with increasing utilization of mastectomy beyond 2005. In addition, there was an increasing trend in postmastectomy reconstruction over time, and women of African ancestry (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.72) and Hispanic women (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89) were less likely to undergo reconstruction in comparison with women of European ancestry. A similar trend was observed in contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy utilization, with women of European ancestry having a more rapid rise in the utilization of contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy in comparison with all other ancestral/ethnic groups. Recent trends demonstrate a plateau in radiation therapy administration after BCS along with increasing utilization of mastectomy, reconstruction, and contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy. There are substantial differences in treatment utilization according to ancestry/ethnicity and geographical region. Further studies examining patient-physician decision making surrounding DCIS treatment are warranted. Cancer 2016. © 2016 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2016;122:2810-2818. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Trends in geographical disparities for cervical cancer mortality in China from 1973 to 2013: a subnational spatio-temporal study

PubMed Central

Xia, Changfa; Ding, Chao; Zheng, Rongshou; Zhang, Siwei; Zeng, Hongmei; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Zhang, Ningxu; Yang, Zhixun; Chen, Wanqing

2017-01-01

Objective This study was designed to explore the time trends in geographical variations of cervical cancer mortality in mainland China over the period 1973 to 2013, to provide subnational spatio-temporal patterns for targeted promotion of human papillomavirus vaccine in China. Methods Data were extracted from three national retrospective death surveys and cancer registry. The rate ratio (RR) was estimated for the aggregated data for seven geographical regions using generalized linear models to evaluate time trends in geographical disparities of cervical cancer mortality. Results There was a significant decrease in cervical cancer mortality in China from 1973–1975 to 2004–2005, but leveled off thereafter to 2011–2013. Compared to the period 1973–1975 the RR for the three last time periods were 0.33 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.30–0.37] for 1990–1992, 0.21 (95% CI: 0.19–0.24) for 2004–2005 and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.22–0.26) for 2011–2013. Females living in the Northwest China and Central China have a high risk of mortality from cervical cancer compared to the nationwide, with the RR being 2.09 (95% CI: 1.83–2.38) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.11–1.44) respectively, while the RRs for South China, Northeast China and Southwest China were below 1.00, indicating the lower death risk. Despite the mortality rate had increased slightly from 2004 to 2013, there was an encouraging sign that the geographical disparities in cervical cancer mortality had gradually narrowed over time across China. Conclusions Although cervical cancer mortality in China has reduced to very low levels, the high risk of cervical cancer in Northwest China and Central China is still noteworthy. Public health policies including the promotion of vaccine should be targeted to further reduction of geographical disparities in cervical cancer mortality. PMID:29353971

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba, Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Last, W.M.; Teller, J.T.; Forester, R.M.

1994-01-01

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (???12-9 ka), ??18O of ostracodes ranged from -16??? to -5??? (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water. Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ??18O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ??18O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such as C. rawsoni or Limnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such as L. staplini or L. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake. ??18O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from -4??? at 8 ka to -11??? at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (-20??? SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ??18O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (-6???) after ???4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After ???2 ka, the ??18O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between -13??? and -7???, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ??13C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka. ?? 1994 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA.

PubMed

Miller, J D; Skinner, C N; Safford, H D; Knapp, E E; Ramirez, C M

2012-01-01

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.

Seabird nest counts: A test of monitoring metrics using Red-tailed Tropicbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seavy, N.E.; Reynolds, M.H.

2009-01-01

Counts of nesting birds are often used to monitor the abundance of breeding pairs at colonies. Mean incubation counts (MICs) are counts of nests with eggs at intervals that correspond to the mean incubation period of a species. The sum of all counts during the nesting season (MICtotal) and the highest single count during the season (MICmax) are metrics that can be generated from this method. However, the utility of these metrics as measures of the number of breeding pairs has not been well tested. We used two approaches to evaluate the bias and precision of MIC metrics for quantifying annual variation in the number of breeding Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda) nesting on two islands in the Papahnaumokukea Marine National Monument in the northwest Hawaiian Islands. First, we used data from nest plots with individually marked birds to generate simulated MIC metrics that we compared to the known number of nesting individuals. The MICtotal overestimated the number of pairs by about 5%, whereas the MICmax underestimated the number of pairs by about 60%. However, both metrics exhibited similar precision. Second, we used a 12-yr time series of island-wide MICs to compare estimates of temporal trend and annual variation using the MICmax and MICtotal. The 95% confidence intervals for the trend estimates were overlapping and the residual standard errors for the two metrics were similar. Our results suggest that both metrics offered similar precision for indices of breeding pairs of Red-tailed Tropicbirds, but that MICtotal was more accurate. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

A QI Initiative to Reduce Hospitalization for Children With Isolated Skull Fractures.

PubMed

Lyons, Todd W; Stack, Anne M; Monuteaux, Michael C; Parver, Stephanie L; Gordon, Catherine R; Gordon, Caroline D; Proctor, Mark R; Nigrovic, Lise E

2016-06-01

Although children with isolated skull fractures rarely require acute interventions, most are hospitalized. Our aim was to safely decrease the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures. We designed and executed this multifaceted quality improvement (QI) initiative between January 2008 and July 2015 to reduce hospitalization rates for children ≤21 years old with isolated skull fractures at a single tertiary care pediatric institution. We defined an isolated skull fracture as a skull fracture without intracranial injury. The QI intervention consisted of 2 steps: (1) development and implementation of an evidence-based guideline, and (2) dissemination of a provider survey designed to reinforce guideline awareness and adherence. Our primary outcome was hospitalization rate and our balancing measure was hospital readmission within 72 hours. We used standard statistical process control methodology to assess change over time. To assess for secular trends, we examined admission rates for children with an isolated skull fracture in the Pediatric Health Information System administrative database. We identified 321 children with an isolated skull fracture with a median age of 11 months (interquartile range 5-16 months). The baseline admission rate was 71% (179/249, 95% confidence interval, 66%-77%) and decreased to 46% (34/72, 95% confidence interval, 35%-60%) after implementation of our QI initiative. No child was readmitted after discharge. The admission rate in our secular trend control group remained unchanged at 78%. We safely reduced the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures without an increase in the readmissions. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Provincial Variation of Cochlear Implantation Surgical Volumes and Cost in Canada.

PubMed

Crowson, Matthew G; Chen, Joseph M; Tucci, Debara

2017-01-01

Objectives To investigate provincial cochlear implantation (CI) annual volume and cost trends. Study Design Database analysis. Setting National surgical volume and cost database. Subjects and Methods Aggregate-level provincial CI volumes and cost data for adult and pediatric CI surgery from 2005 to 2014 were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Population-level aging forecast estimates were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. Linear fit, analysis of variance, and Tukey's analyses were utilized to compare variances and means. Results The national volume of annual CI procedures is forecasted to increase by <30 per year ( R 2 = 0.88). Ontario has the highest mean annual CI volume (282; 95% confidence interval, 258-308), followed by Alberta (92.0; 95% confidence interval, 66.3-118), which are significantly higher than all other provinces ( P < .05 for each). Ontario's annual CI procedure volume is forecasted to increase by <11 per year ( R 2 = 0.62). Newfoundland and Nova Scotia have the highest CI procedures per 100,000 residents as compared with all other provinces ( P < .05). Alberta, Newfoundland, and Manitoba have the highest estimated implantation cost of all provinces ( P < .05). Conclusions Historical trends of CI forecast modest national volume growth. Potential bottlenecks include provincial funding and access to surgical expertise. The proportion of older adult patients who may benefit from a CI will rise, and there may be insufficient capacity to meet this need. Delayed access to CI for pediatric patients is also a concern, given recent reports of long wait times for CI surgery.

Costs and consequences of direct-to-consumer advertising for clopidogrel in Medicaid.

PubMed

Law, Michael R; Soumerai, Stephen B; Adams, Alyce S; Majumdar, Sumit R

2009-11-23

Direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) is assumed to be a major driver of rising pharmaceutical costs. Yet, research on how it affects costs is limited. Therefore, we studied clopidogrel, a commonly used and heavily marketed antiplatelet agent, which was first sold in 1998 and first direct-to-consumer advertised in 2001. We examined pharmacy data from 27 Medicaid programs from 1999 through 2005. We used interrupted time series analysis to analyze changes in the number of units dispensed, cost per unit dispensed, and total pharmacy expenditures after DTCA initiation. In 1999 and 2000, there was no DTCA for clopidogrel; from 2001 through 2005, DTCA spending exceeded $350 million. Direct-to-consumer advertising did not change the preexisting trend in the number of clopidogrel units dispensed per 1000 enrollees (P = .10). However, there was a sudden and sustained increase in cost per unit of $0.40 after DTCA initiation (95% confidence interval, $0.31-$0.49; P < .001), leading to an additional $40.58 of pharmacy costs per 1000 enrollees per quarter thereafter (95% confidence interval, $22.61-$58.56; P < .001). Overall, this change resulted in an additional $207 million in total pharmacy expenditures. Direct-to-consumer advertising was not associated with an increase in clopidogrel use over and above preexisting trends. However, Medicaid pharmacy expenditures increased substantially after the initiation of DTCA because of a concomitant increase in the cost per unit. If drug price increases after DTCA initiation are common, there are important implications for payers and for policy makers in the United States and elsewhere.

Suicidal ideation and Attempts in North American School-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Skay, Carol L.; Hynds, Patricia; Pettingell, Sandra; Bearinger, Linda H.; Resnick, Michael D.; Reis, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

This study explored the prevalence, disparity, and cohort trends in suicidality among bisexual teens vs. heterosexual and gay/lesbian peers in 9 population-based high school surveys in Canada and the U.S. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender; 95% confidence intervals tested cohort trends where surveys were repeated over multiple years. Results showed remarkable consistency: bisexual youth reported higher odds of recent suicidal ideation and attempts vs. heterosexual peers, with increasing odds in most surveys over the past decade. Results compared to gay and lesbian peers were mixed, with varying gender differences in prevalence and disparity trends in the different regions. PMID:19835039

Impact of long-term high-intensity interval and moderate-intensity continuous training on subclinical inflammation in overweight/obese adults.

PubMed

Gerosa-Neto, José; Antunes, Barbara M M; Campos, Eduardo Z; Rodrigues, Jhennyfer; Ferrari, Gustavo D; Rosa Neto, José C; Bueno, Carlos R; Lira, Fábio S

2016-12-01

Obesity is a risk factor able to trigger several inflammatory alterations and the imbalance between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine productions. Physical exercise is an important strategy for reduction of inflammatory established process. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of 16 weeks of three exercise training programs in the inflammatory profile and insulin resistance in overweight/obesity. Thirty two men and women (46.4±10.1 years; 162.0±9.1 cm; 82.0±13.6 kg) were divided into three groups for training on a treadmill: continuous at 70% maximum heart rate (HRmax) 5 times a week (CONT); 1×4 min (1-bout) and 4×4 min (high intensity interval training, HIIT) at 90% HRmax 3 times a week. Interleukin (IL) 6 and IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), insulin and adiponectin levels were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance was calculated. After 16 weeks of training blood concentrations of IL-6 decreased in the HIIT group ( P =0.035), TNF-α decreased in the CONT ( P =0.037) and increased in HIIT ( P =0.001) and adiponectin decreased in the three training models. There was a trend towards decreased body weight and body mass index (BMI) after HIIT only ( P =0.059 and P =0.060, respectively). Despite the decrease of adiponectin and the increase of TNF-α in HIIT group, insulin sensitivity showed a trend for improvement ( P =0.08). HIIT program decreased IL-6 at rest and although not significant was the only who tended to decrease total body weight and BMI. Taken together, our data suggest that both HIIT as well as CONT exercises training program promotes changes in inflammatory profile in overweight/obesity, but dissimilar response is seen in TNF-α levels.

Longitudinal Examination of Links Between Risk Factors for the Metabolic Syndrome and Both Age and Fasting Glucose Levels in Nondiabetic Subjects.

PubMed

Preuss, Harry G; Kaats, Gilbert R; Mrvichin, Nate; Bagchi, Debasis; Swaroop, Anand

2018-01-01

Previous evaluations in nondiabetic subjects revealed statistically significant correlations between fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels used as an estimate of insulin resistance and many components constituting the metabolic syndrome. Similar significant correlations were not found employing chronological age as the independent variable in the same nondiabetic individuals. The major purpose here was to replicate as well as corroborate the previous cross-sectional observations, emphasizing results obtained from data collected longitudinally. Material was assessed from 99 nondiabetic volunteers who had undergone 2 separate baseline measurements carried out over a minimum of 5 and up to a maximum of 20 years. Findings from the starting baseline measurements mimicked many observations perceived in the earlier published cross-sectional material. The following correlations with elements constituting the metabolic syndrome using FBG as an independent variable were once more statistically significantly positive: scale weight, fat mass, circulating levels of triglycerides and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was once again appropriately significant in a negative direction. In contrast, the same correlations were generally nonsignificant when age replaced FBG as the independent variable. Examining the 2 data sets over the 5-20-year intervals, FBG increased statistically significantly over time. However, the average increase clinically was relatively minor: -92.1 mg/dL ± 1.1 (SEM) vs 95.1 mg/dL ± 1.1 (SEM), p < 0.007. When the actual changes (delta) in the dependent parameters were correlated with the individual passages of time (intervals in years), only downward changes in aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were statistically significant. Fat-free mass showed a trend downward, whereas fat mass, trunk fat, and triglycerides merely demonstrated trends upward. Current findings gathered over years are consistent with the original hypothesis that maintaining relatively low, stable circulating glucose levels during aging retards the development and intensity of many common manifestations of the metabolic syndrome.

Multi-decadal frontal change rates of tidewater glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Alison; Copland, Luke; Stokes, Chris; Bentley, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent studies of post-2000 observational data have shown variability in the dynamic ice discharge of tidewater glaciers throughout the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Expanding this to all tidewater glaciers in the region on a decadal time scale using earlier records can help identify when glacier retreat began, and determine longer-term temporal trends in mass balance. Our study shows that over 94% of 300 tidewater glaciers in the CAA (from southern Baffin Island to Ellesmere Island, excluding those on the northern coast) have retreated since the earliest observational records (aerial photographs acquired in 1958-1960). Mean overall length change rate of the 211 glaciers in the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) is -9.3 ma-1 (± 1.38 SE), and of the 89 glaciers on Baffin and Bylot Islands (BBI) is -7.1 ma-1 (± 0.72 SE). Mean frontal widths of tidewater glaciers in the QEI are greater than those on islands to the south, resulting in greater mean area loss from this region. Each glacier has 6 frontal positions digitised from a range of image sources at approximately decadal intervals. Length change rates have been calculated across each time interval for each glacier, based on area changes divided by glacier frontal width. Results indicate a similar temporal pattern throughout the region, whereby glaciers show minimal change in early years with retreat rates slowly increasing, followed by acceleration in retreat rates since the late 1990s. Mean change rates in the QEI and BBI in the 1960s were -6.92 ma-1 and -0.51 ma-1 respectively, increasing to -28.96 ma-1 and -24.84 ma-1 since 2010. The same trend (at differing magnitudes) has been observed within each latitudinal degree band, and for glaciers of differing frontal widths. Further observations of glacier changes and links to climate change are revealed on the poster.

Long-term follow-up of botulinum toxin therapy for focal hand dystonia: outcome at 10 years or more.

PubMed

Lungu, Codrin; Karp, Barbara I; Alter, Katharine; Zolbrod, Regina; Hallett, Mark

2011-03-01

Previous studies have explored the efficacy and safety of botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT) treatment for Focal hand dystonia (FHD), but none have followed a large number of patients for 10 years or more. Retrospective study, with benefit and weakness assessed on a 0 to 4 subjective scale. Demographic, clinical and treatment characteristics were analyzed using t tests and Pearson correlations. Twenty FHD patients had 10 years or longer treatment. Interinjection intervals were variable. Musicians were more likely to wait longer between injections and had less complex dystonia. There was a trend for larger benefit in women and with shorter intervals. The dose increased over time. Dystonia characteristics did not predict response or side-effects, but benefit magnitude predicted longer compliance. No serious side-effects or antibody-mediated resistance occurred. This is the longest reported period of BoNT treatment in the largest FHD cohort. BoNT therapy for FHD remains safe and effective after more than a decade of treatment. Copyright © 2011 Movement Disorder Society.

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

Interval Timing Is Preserved Despite Circadian Desynchrony in Rats: Constant Light and Heavy Water Studies.

PubMed

Petersen, Christian C; Mistlberger, Ralph E

2017-08-01

The mechanisms that enable mammals to time events that recur at 24-h intervals (circadian timing) and at arbitrary intervals in the seconds-to-minutes range (interval timing) are thought to be distinct at the computational and neurobiological levels. Recent evidence that disruption of circadian rhythmicity by constant light (LL) abolishes interval timing in mice challenges this assumption and suggests a critical role for circadian clocks in short interval timing. We sought to confirm and extend this finding by examining interval timing in rats in which circadian rhythmicity was disrupted by long-term exposure to LL or by chronic intake of 25% D 2 O. Adult, male Sprague-Dawley rats were housed in a light-dark (LD) cycle or in LL until free-running circadian rhythmicity was markedly disrupted or abolished. The rats were then trained and tested on 15- and 30-sec peak-interval procedures, with water restriction used to motivate task performance. Interval timing was found to be unimpaired in LL rats, but a weak circadian activity rhythm was apparently rescued by the training procedure, possibly due to binge feeding that occurred during the 15-min water access period that followed training each day. A second group of rats in LL were therefore restricted to 6 daily meals scheduled at 4-h intervals. Despite a complete absence of circadian rhythmicity in this group, interval timing was again unaffected. To eliminate all possible temporal cues, we tested a third group of rats in LL by using a pseudo-randomized schedule. Again, interval timing remained accurate. Finally, rats tested in LD received 25% D 2 O in place of drinking water. This markedly lengthened the circadian period and caused a failure of LD entrainment but did not disrupt interval timing. These results indicate that interval timing in rats is resistant to disruption by manipulations of circadian timekeeping previously shown to impair interval timing in mice.

Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

PubMed

Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

2016-07-20

The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides and hence is the first step to actions to prevent women dying by suicide in the future. Recognising and acknowledging these women's deaths is more important than concerns over the impact reclassification using ICD-MM might have on reported maternal death rates.

Are meat and heme iron intake associated with pancreatic cancer? Results from the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Cohort

PubMed Central

Taunk, Pulkit; Hecht, Eric; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael

2015-01-01

Several studies on pancreatic cancer have reported significant positive associations for intake of red meat but null associations for heme iron. We assessed total, red, white, and processed meat intake, meat cooking methods and doneness, and heme iron and mutagen intake in relation to pancreatic cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort. 322,846 participants (187,265 men; 135,581 women) successfully completed and returned the food frequency questionnaire between 1995–1996. After a mean follow-up of 9.2 years (up to 10.17 years), 1,417 individuals (895 men, 522 women) developed exocrine pancreatic cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and trends were calculated using the median value of each quantile. Models incorporated age as the time metric and were adjusted for smoking history, BMI, self-reported diabetes, and energy-adjusted saturated fat. Pancreatic cancer risk significantly increased with intake of total meat (Q5 vs. Q1 HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42, p-trend=0.03), red meat (HR=1.22, 95% CI 1.01–1.48, p-trend=0.02), high-temperature cooked meat (HR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00–1.45, p-trend=0.02), grilled/barbequed meat (HR=1.24, 95% CI 1.03–1.50, p-trend=0.007), well/very well done meat (HR=1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58, p-trend = 0.005), and heme iron from red meat (Q4 vs. Q1 HR=1.21, 95% CI 1.01–1.45, p-trend=0.04). When stratified by sex, these associations remained significant in men but not women except for white meat intake in women (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.02–1.74, p-trend = 0.04). Additional studies should confirm our findings that consuming heme iron from red meat increases pancreatic cancer risk. PMID:26666579

Are meat and heme iron intake associated with pancreatic cancer? Results from the NIH-AARP diet and health cohort.

PubMed

Taunk, Pulkit; Hecht, Eric; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael

2016-05-01

Several studies on pancreatic cancer have reported significant positive associations for intake of red meat but null associations for heme iron. We assessed total, red, white and processed meat intake, meat cooking methods and doneness and heme iron and mutagen intake in relation to pancreatic cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort. A total of 322,846 participants (187,265 men and 135,581 women) successfully completed and returned the food frequency questionnaire between 1995 and 1996. After a mean follow-up of 9.2 years (up to 10.17 years), 1,417 individuals (895 men and 522 women) developed exocrine pancreatic cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and trends were calculated using the median value of each quantile. Models incorporated age as the time metric and were adjusted for smoking history, body mass index, self-reported diabetes and energy-adjusted saturated fat. Pancreatic cancer risk significantly increased with intake of total meat (Q5 vs. Q1: HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.02-1.42, p-trend = 0.03), red meat (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.01-1.48, p-trend = 0.02), high-temperature cooked meat (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.00-1.45, p-trend = 0.02), grilled/barbequed meat (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.50, p-trend = 0.007), well/very well done meat (HR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.58, p-trend = 0.005) and heme iron from red meat (Q4 vs. Q1: HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.45, p-trend = 0.04). When stratified by sex, these associations remained significant in men but not women except for white meat intake in women (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.02-1.74, p-trend = 0.04). Additional studies should confirm our findings that consuming heme iron from red meat increases pancreatic cancer risk. © 2015 UICC.

Trends in NRMP Data from 2007-2014 for U.S. Seniors Matching into Emergency Medicine.

PubMed

Manthey, David E; Hartman, Nicholas D; Newmyer, Aileen; Gunalda, Jonah C; Hiestand, Brian C; Askew, Kim L; Lefebvre, Cedric

2017-01-01

Since 1978, the National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) has published data demonstrating characteristics of applicants who have matched into their preferred specialty in the NRMP main residency match. These data have been published approximately every two years. There is limited information about trends within these published data for students matching into emergency medicine (EM). Our objective was to investigate and describe trends in NRMP data to include the following: the ratio of applicants to available EM positions; United State Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 scores (compared to the national means); number of programs ranked; and Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society (AOA) membership among U.S. seniors matching into EM. This was a retrospective observational review of NRMP data published between 2007 and 2016. We analyzed the data using analysis of variance (ANOVA) or Kruskal-Wallis testing, and Fischer's exact or chi-squared testing, as appropriate to determine statistical significance. The ratio of applicants to available EM positions remained essentially stable from 2007 to 2014 but did increase slightly in 2016. We observed a net upward trend in overall Step 1 and Step 2 scores for EM applicants. However, this did not outpace the national trend increase in Step 1 and 2 scores overall. There was an increase in the mean number of programs ranked by EM applicants over the years studied from 7.8 (SD4.2) to 9.2 (SD5.0, p<0.001), driven predominantly by the cohort of U.S. students successful in the match. Among time intervals, there was a difference in the number of EM applicants with AOA membership (p=0.043) due to a drop in the number of AOA students in 2011. No sustained statistical trend in AOA membership was identified over the seven-year period studied. NRMP data demonstrate trends among EM applicants that are similar to national trends in other specialties for USMLE board scores, and a modest increase in number of programs ranked. AOA membership was largely stable. EM does not appear to have become more competitive relative to other specialties or previous years in these categories.

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

High-density lipoprotein particle subclass heterogeneity and incident coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Akinkuolie, Akintunde O; Paynter, Nina P; Padmanabhan, Latha; Mora, Samia

2014-01-01

Raising the cholesterol of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles is targeted as a cardiovascular disease prevention strategy. However, HDL particles are heterogeneous in composition and structure, which may relate to differences in antiatherogenic potential. We prospectively evaluated the association of HDL subclasses, defined by a recently proposed nomenclature, with incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Baseline HDL particle concentrations were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and categorized into 5 subclasses (very large, large, medium, small, and very small) among 26 332 initially healthy women. During a median follow-up of 17 years, 969 cases of incident CHD (myocardial infarction, revascularization, and CHD death) were ascertained. In Cox models that adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, blood pressure, smoking, postmenopausal status, and hormone therapy, associations with incident CHD were inverse (P trend<0.0001) for concentrations of very large (hazard ratio for top versus bottom quartile, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.60), large (0.54; 0.45-0.64), and medium (0.69; 0.58-0.83) HDL subclasses. Conversely, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for small and very small HDL were 1.22 (1.01-1.46; P trend=0.08) and 1.67 (1.39-2.02; P trend<0.0001), respectively. However, after additionally adjusting for metabolic and lipoprotein variables, associations for the spectrum of large, medium, and small HDL subclasses were inverse (P trend<0.05 for large and small and 0.07 for medium), whereas subclasses at either end of the spectrum were not associated with CHD (P trend=0.97 for very large and 0.21 for very small HDL). In this prospective study, associations with incident CHD differed by HDL particle subclass, which may be relevant for developing HDL-modulating therapies. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000479.

Trends in preterm birth and perinatal mortality among singletons: United States, 1989 through 2000.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph, K S; Oyelese, Yinka; Demissie, Kitaw; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2005-05-01

Despite the recent increase in preterm birth in the United States, trends in preterm birth subtypes have not been adequately examined. We examined trends in preterm birth among singletons following ruptured membranes, medical indications, and spontaneous preterm birth and evaluated the impact of these trends on perinatal mortality. A population-based, retrospective cohort study comprising 46,375,578 women (16% blacks) who delivered singleton births in the United States, 1989 through 2000, was performed. Rates of preterm birth (< 37 weeks), their subtypes, and associated perinatal mortality (stillbirths at >/= 22 weeks plus neonatal deaths within 28 days), before and after adjustment for potential confounders, were derived from ecological logistic regression models. Preterm birth rates increased by 14% (95% confidence interval 13-15%) among whites from 8.3% to 9.4% and decreased by 15% (95% confidence interval 14-16%) among blacks from 18.5% to 16.2% between 1989 and 2000. Among whites, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 23%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 55%, and spontaneous preterm birth increased by 3%. Among blacks, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 37%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 32%, and spontaneous preterm birth decreased by 27%. The largest decline in perinatal mortality among whites was associated with increases in medically indicated preterm birth, whereas the largest decline in perinatal mortality among blacks was associated with declines in preterm birth following ruptured membranes and spontaneous preterm birth. Temporal trends in preterm birth varied substantially based on underlying subtype and maternal race. The recent increase in medically indicated preterm birth was associated with a favorable reduction in perinatal mortality.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Neuropsychological Profile and Dementia Symptom Recognition in Help-Seekers in a Community Early-Detection Program in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Tang, Jennifer Y-M; Wong, Gloria H-Y; Ng, Carmen K-M; Kwok, Dorothy T-S; Lee, Maggie N-Y; Dai, David L-K; Lum, Terry Y-S

2016-03-01

To examine the neuropsychological and clinical profile of help-seekers in an early-detection community dementia program and to explore any relationship between profiles and time to seek help. Cross-sectional. Early-detection community dementia program. Help-seekers (N = 1,005) with subjective cognitive complaints or complaints from an informant. Neurocognitive testing, including the Cantonese Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clock Drawing Test, Digit Span, and Fuld Object Memory Evaluation and other clinical and functioning assessments, including the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental ADLs (IADLs), and depressive symptoms. Time since the person or an informant reported that they first noticed symptoms. Eighty-six percent of help-seekers had at least very mild dementia (CDR score ≥0.5). Cognitive performance was moderately impaired (mean MMSE score 18.4 ± 6.1). They required some assistance with IADLs, had very mild ADL impairments, and had few depressive symptoms. Median time to seek assessment was 12 months (interquartile range 7-30 months) according to the person or the informant (an adult child in 75% of the sample). Using the median-split method, time to seek assessment was classified as early (0-12 months) and late (>12 months). Worse cognitive and IADL performance but not ADL performance or depressive symptoms were observed in late than in early help-seekers. Longer time intervals between symptom recognition and early assessment showed a trend of further impairments on all measures except ADLs. A time interval of more than 12 months between symptom recognition and early assessment appears to be associated with worse cognitive function upon presentation. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Lack of effect of oral cabotegravir on the pharmacokinetics of a levonorgestrel/ethinyl oestradiol‐containing oral contraceptive in healthy adult women

PubMed Central

Trezza, Christine; Ford, Susan L.; Gould, Elizabeth; Lou, Yu; Huang, Chuyun; Ritter, James M.; Buchanan, Ann M.; Spreen, William

2017-01-01

Aims This study aimed to investigate whether cabotegravir (CAB), an integrase inhibitor in development for treatment and prevention of human immunodeficiency virus‐1, influences the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a levonorgestrel (LNG) and ethinyl oestradiol (EO)–containing oral contraceptive (OC) in healthy women. Methods In this open‐label, fixed‐sequence crossover study, healthy female subjects received LNG 0.15 mg/EO 0.03 mg tablet once daily Days 1–10 alone and with oral CAB 30 mg once daily Days 11–21. At the end of each treatment period, subjects underwent predose sampling for concentrations of follicle‐stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone, and progesterone and serial PK sampling for plasma LNG, EO, and CAB concentrations. Results Twenty women were enrolled, and 19 completed the study. One subject was withdrawn due to an adverse event unrelated to study medications. Geometric least squares mean ratios (90% confidence interval) of LNG + CAB vs. LNG alone for LNG area under the plasma concentration–time curve over the dosing interval of duration τ and maximum observed plasma concentration were 1.12 (1.07–1.18) and 1.05 (0.96–1.15), respectively. Geometric least squares mean ratio (90% confidence interval) of EO + CAB vs. EO alone for EO area under the plasma concentration–time curve over the dosing interval of duration τ and maximum observed plasma concentration were 1.02 (0.97–1.08) and 0.92 (0.83–1.03), respectively. Steady‐state CAB PK parameters were comparable to historical values. There was no apparent difference in mean luteinizing hormone, follicle‐stimulating hormone, and progesterone concentrations between periods. No clinically significant trends in laboratory values, vital signs, or electrocardiography values were observed. Conclusions Repeat doses of oral CAB had no significant effect on LNG/EO PK or pharmacodynamics, which supports CAB coadministration with LNG/EO OCs in clinical practice. PMID:28087972

Endoscopists can sustain high performance for the optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps following standardized and continued training.

PubMed

McGill, Sarah K; Soetikno, Roy; Rastogi, Amit; Rouse, Robert V; Sato, Tohru; Bansal, Ajay; McQuaid, Kenneth; Kaltenbach, Tonya

2015-03-01

The learning curve for optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps with the narrow-band imaging (NBI) is unknown. To forego histological analysis of diminutive polyps diagnosed optically with high confidence, guidelines recommend ≥ 90 % negative predictive value (NPV) and concordance of ≥ 90 % for surveillance intervals predicted optically and histologically. We aimed to study the learning of optical diagnosis for colorectal polyps. We studied five endoscopists as part of a randomized multisite trial comparing near-focus and standard-focus views for optical diagnosis. They trained using a computer-based module, followed by 10 real-time colonoscopies with pathology correlation. Endoscopists then optically diagnosed and resected all the polyps found during 558 consecutive colonoscopies, and diagnoses were compared with pathology. Endoscopists repeated the training module at the study midpoint. NPV and concordance of surveillance intervals for diminutive polyps diagnosed optically with high confidence were measured over time. Endoscopists showed high diagnostic performance, with a nonsignificant trend toward higher NPV in the second half of the study. For the 445 polyps in the standard-view arm, the NPV was 88.0 % (95 %CI 75.7 % - 95.5 %) in the first half and 95.8 % (88.3 % - 99.1 %) in the second; P = 0.7. Three endoscopists in the first half and four in the second achieved > 90 % NPV. Concordance of surveillance intervals was identical in the first and second halves at 98.1 % (95 %CI 93.3 % - 99.8 %). High NPV for the prediction of non-neoplasms with NBI was achieved and maintained in this group of endoscopists who participated in standardized and continued training. Both NPV and surveillance interval agreement indicated high performance in the optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps and exceeded thresholds. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Decreasing mortality and changes in treatment patterns in patients with acromegaly from a nationwide study.

PubMed

Esposito, Daniela; Ragnarsson, Oskar; Granfeldt, Daniel; Marlow, Tom; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Olsson, Daniel S

2018-05-01

New therapeutic strategies have developed for the management of acromegaly over recent decades. Whether this has improved mortality has not been fully elucidated. The primary aim was to investigate mortality in a nationwide unselected cohort of patients with acromegaly. Secondary analyses included time trends in mortality and treatment patterns. A total of 1089 patients with acromegaly were identified in Swedish National Health Registries between 1987 and 2013. To analyse time trends, the cohort was divided into three periods (1987-1995, 1996-2004 and 2005-2013) based on the year of diagnosis. Using the Swedish population as reference, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Overall SMR was 2.79 (95% CI: 2.43-3.15) with 232 observed and 83 expected deaths. Mortality was mainly related to circulatory diseases (SMR: 2.95, 95% CI: 2.35-3.55), including ischemic heart disease (2.00, 1.35-2.66) and cerebrovascular disease (3.99, 2.42-5.55) and malignancy (1.76, 1.27-2.26). Mortality decreased over time, with an SMR of 3.45 (2.87-4.02) and 1.86 (1.04-2.67) during the first and last time period, respectively ( P  = .015). During the same time periods, the frequency of pituitary surgery increased from 58% to 72% ( P  < 0.001) and the prevalence of hypopituitarism decreased from 41% to 23% ( P  < 0.001). Excess mortality was found in this nationwide cohort of patients with acromegaly, mainly related to circulatory and malignant diseases. Although still high, mortality significantly declined over time. This could be explained by the more frequent use of pituitary surgery, decreased prevalence of hypopituitarism and the availability of new medical treatment options. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

PubMed

Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

Wetting and drying of soil in response to precipitation: Data analysis, modeling, and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Basak, Aniruddha; Kulkarni, Chinmay; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Mengshoel, Ole

2016-01-01

This paper investigates methods to analyze and forecast soil moisture time series. We extend an existing Antecedent Water Index (AWI) model, which expresses soil moisture as a function of time and rainfall. Unfortunately, the existing AWI model does not forecast effectively for time periods beyond a few hours. To overcome this limitation, we develop a novel AWI-based model. Our model accumulates rainfall over a time interval and can fit a diverse range of wetting and drying curves. In addition, parameters in our model reflect hydrologic redistribution processes of gravity and suction.We validate our models using experimental soil moisture and rainfall time series data collected from steep gradient post-wildfire sites in Southern California, where rapid landscape change was observed in response to small to moderate rain storms. We found that our novel model fits the data for three distinct soil textures, occurring at different depths below the ground surface (5, 15, and 30 cm). Our model also successfully forecasts soil moisture trends, such as drying and wetting rate.

Changes in academic adjustment and relational self-worth across the transition to middle school.

PubMed

Ryan, Allison M; Shim, Sungok Serena; Makara, Kara A

2013-09-01

Moving from elementary to middle school is a time of great transition for many early adolescents. The present study examined students' academic adjustment and relational self-worth at 6-month intervals for four time points spanning the transition from elementary school to middle school (N = 738 at time 1; 53 % girls; 54 % African American, 46 % European American). Grade point average (G.P.A.), intrinsic value for schoolwork, self-worth around teachers, and self-worth around friends were examined at every time point. The overall developmental trajectory indicated that G.P.A. and intrinsic value for schoolwork declined. The overall decline in G.P.A. was due to changes at the transition and across the first year in middle school. Intrinsic value declined across all time points. Self-worth around teachers was stable. The developmental trends were the same regardless of gender or ethnicity except for self-worth around friends, which was stable for European American students and increased for African American students due to an ascent at the transition into middle school. Implications for the education of early adolescents in middle schools are discussed.

Combining Speed Information Across Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verghese, Preeti; Stone, Leland S.

1995-01-01

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Processed and Unprocessed Red Meat and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Analysis by Tumor Location and Modification by Time

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xuehong; Pan, An; Wang, Molin; Fuchs, Charles S.; Le, Ngoan; Chan, Andrew T.; Willett, Walter C.; Ogino, Shuji; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Wu, Kana

2015-01-01

Although the association between red meat consumption and colorectal cancer (CRC) is well established, the association across subsites of the colon and rectum remains uncertain, as does time of consumption in relation to cancer development. As these relationships are key for understanding the pathogenesis of CRC, they were examined in two large cohorts with repeated dietary measures over time, the Nurses’ Health Study (n = 87,108 women, 1980–2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (n = 47,389 men, 1986–2010). Cox proportional hazards regression models generated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), which were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. In combined cohorts, there were 2,731 CRC cases (1,151 proximal colon, 816 distal colon, and 589 rectum). In pooled analyses, processed red meat was positively associated with CRC risk (per 1 serving/day increase: HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01–1.32; P for trend 0.03) and particularly with distal colon cancer (per 1 serving/day increase; HR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.09–1.69; P for trend 0.006). Recent consumption of processed meat (within the past 4 years) was not associated with distal cancer. Unprocessed red meat was inversely associated with risk of distal colon cancer and a weak non-significant positive association between unprocessed red meat and proximal cancer was observed (per 1 serving/day increase: distal HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.68–0.82; P for trend <0.001; proximal HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.92–1.40; P for trend 0.22). Thus, in these two large cohorts of US health professionals, processed meat intake was positively associated with risk of CRC, particularly distal cancer, with little evidence that higher intake of unprocessed red meat substantially increased risk of CRC. Future studies, particularly those with sufficient sample size to assess associations by subsites across the colon are needed to confirm these findings and elucidate potentially distinct mechanisms underlying the relationship between processed meat and subtypes of unprocessed red meat with CRC. PMID:26305323

Processed and Unprocessed Red Meat and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Analysis by Tumor Location and Modification by Time.

PubMed

Bernstein, Adam M; Song, Mingyang; Zhang, Xuehong; Pan, An; Wang, Molin; Fuchs, Charles S; Le, Ngoan; Chan, Andrew T; Willett, Walter C; Ogino, Shuji; Giovannucci, Edward L; Wu, Kana

2015-01-01

Although the association between red meat consumption and colorectal cancer (CRC) is well established, the association across subsites of the colon and rectum remains uncertain, as does time of consumption in relation to cancer development. As these relationships are key for understanding the pathogenesis of CRC, they were examined in two large cohorts with repeated dietary measures over time, the Nurses' Health Study (n = 87,108 women, 1980-2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (n = 47,389 men, 1986-2010). Cox proportional hazards regression models generated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), which were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. In combined cohorts, there were 2,731 CRC cases (1,151 proximal colon, 816 distal colon, and 589 rectum). In pooled analyses, processed red meat was positively associated with CRC risk (per 1 serving/day increase: HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01-1.32; P for trend 0.03) and particularly with distal colon cancer (per 1 serving/day increase; HR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.09-1.69; P for trend 0.006). Recent consumption of processed meat (within the past 4 years) was not associated with distal cancer. Unprocessed red meat was inversely associated with risk of distal colon cancer and a weak non-significant positive association between unprocessed red meat and proximal cancer was observed (per 1 serving/day increase: distal HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.68-0.82; P for trend <0.001; proximal HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.92-1.40; P for trend 0.22). Thus, in these two large cohorts of US health professionals, processed meat intake was positively associated with risk of CRC, particularly distal cancer, with little evidence that higher intake of unprocessed red meat substantially increased risk of CRC. Future studies, particularly those with sufficient sample size to assess associations by subsites across the colon are needed to confirm these findings and elucidate potentially distinct mechanisms underlying the relationship between processed meat and subtypes of unprocessed red meat with CRC.

The devil is in the details: trends in avoidable hospitalization rates by geography in British Columbia, 1990–2000

PubMed Central

Cloutier-Fisher, Denise; Penning, Margaret J; Zheng, Chi; Druyts, Eric-Bené F

2006-01-01

Background Researchers and policy makers have focussed on the development of indicators to help monitor the success of regionalization, primary care reform and other health sector restructuring initiatives. Certain indicators are useful in examining issues of equity in service provision, especially among older populations, regardless of where they live. AHRs are used as an indicator of primary care system efficiency and thus reveal information about access to general practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in avoidable hospitalization rates (AHRs) during a period of time characterized by several waves of health sector restructuring and regionalization in British Columbia. AHRs are examined in relation to non-avoidable and total hospitalization rates as well as by urban and rural geography across the province. Methods Analyses draw on linked administrative health data from the province of British Columbia for 1990 through 2000 for the population aged 50 and over. Joinpoint regression analyses and t-tests are used to detect and describe trends in the data. Results Generally speaking, non-avoidable hospitalizations constitute the vast majority of hospitalizations in a given year (i.e. around 95%) with AHRs constituting the remaining 5% of hospitalizations. Comparing rural areas and urban areas reveals that standardized rates of avoidable, non-avoidable and total hospitalizations are consistently higher in rural areas. Joinpoint regression results show significantly decreasing trends overall; lines are parallel in the case of avoidable hospitalizations, and lines are diverging for non-avoidable and total hospitalizations, with the gap between rural and urban areas being wider at the end of the time interval than at the beginning. Conclusion These data suggest that access to effective primary care in rural communities remains problematic in BC given that rural areas did not make any gains in AHRs relative to urban areas under recent health sector restructuring initiatives. It remains important to continue to monitor the discrepancy between them as a reflection of inequity in service provision. In addition, it is important to consider alternative explanations for the observed trends paying particular attention to the needs of rural and urban populations and the factors influencing local service provision. PMID:16914056

Trends and determinants for early initiation of and exclusive breastfeeding under six months in Vietnam: results from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Bui, Quyen Thi-Tu; Lee, Hwa-Young; Le, Anh Thi-Kim; Van Dung, Do; Vu, Lan Thi-Hoang

2016-01-01

Background There is strong evidence that breastfeeding (BF) significantly benefits mothers and infants in various ways. Yet the proportion of breastfed babies in Vietnam is low and continues to decline. This study fills an important evidence gap in BF practices in Vietnam. Objective This paper examines the trend of early initiation of BF and exclusive BF from 2000 to 2011 in Vietnam and explores the determinants at individual and contextual levels. Design Data from three waves of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey were combined to estimate crude and adjusted trends over time for two outcomes – early initiation of BF and exclusive BF. Three-level logistic regressions were fitted to examine the impacts of both individual and contextual characteristics on early initiation of BF and exclusive BF in the 2011 data. Results Both types of BF showed a decreasing trend over time after controlling for individual-level characteristics but this trend was more evident for early initiation of BF. Apart from child's age, individual-level characteristics were not significant predictors of the BF outcomes, but provincial characteristics had a strong association. When controlling for individual-level characteristics, mothers living in provinces with a higher percentage of mothers with more than three children were more likely to have initiated early BF (odds ratio [OR]: 1.06; confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.11) but less likely to exclusively breastfeed their babies (OR: 0.94; CI: 0.88–1.01). Mothers living in areas with a higher poverty rate were more likely to breastfeed exclusively (OR: 1.07; CI: 1.02–1.13), and those who delivered by Caesarean section were less likely to initiate early BF. Conclusions Our results suggest that environmental factors are becoming more important for determining BF practices in Vietnam. Intervention programs should therefore not only consider individual factors, but should also consider the potential impact of contextual factors on BF practices. PMID:26950562

Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of changes in rainfall occurred in Italy, especially for extreme events the large variability in space and time precludes robust conclusions despite the long-term records available.

Trends in Timing of Dialysis Initiation within Versus Outside the Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Yu, Margaret K; O'Hare, Ann M; Batten, Adam; Sulc, Christine A; Neely, Emily L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Hebert, Paul L

2015-08-07

The secular trend toward dialysis initiation at progressively higher levels of eGFR is not well understood. This study compared temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation within versus outside the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)-the largest non-fee-for-service health system in the United States. The study used linked data from the US Renal Data System, VA, and Medicare to compare temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation between 2000 and 2009 (n=971,543). Veterans who initiated dialysis within the VA were compared with three groups who initiated dialysis outside the VA: (1) veterans whose dialysis was paid for by the VA, (2) veterans whose dialysis was not paid for by the VA, and (3) nonveterans. Logistic regression was used to estimate average predicted probabilities of dialysis initiation at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). The adjusted probability of starting dialysis at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) increased over time for all groups but was lower for veterans who started dialysis within the VA (0.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.30 to 0.32) than for those starting outside the VA, including veterans whose dialysis was (0.36; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) and was not (0.40; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.40) paid for by the VA and nonveterans (0.39; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.39). Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were most pronounced among older patients (P for interaction <0.001) and those with a higher risk of 1-year mortality (P for interaction <0.001). Temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation within the VA mirrored those in the wider United States dialysis population, but eGFR at initiation was consistently lowest among those who initiated within the VA. Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were especially pronounced in older patients and those with higher 1-year mortality risk. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Trends in Timing of Dialysis Initiation within Versus Outside the Department of Veterans Affairs

PubMed Central

O’Hare, Ann M.; Batten, Adam; Sulc, Christine A.; Neely, Emily L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Hebert, Paul L.

2015-01-01

Background and objectives The secular trend toward dialysis initiation at progressively higher levels of eGFR is not well understood. This study compared temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation within versus outside the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)—the largest non–fee-for-service health system in the United States. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The study used linked data from the US Renal Data System, VA, and Medicare to compare temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation between 2000 and 2009 (n=971,543). Veterans who initiated dialysis within the VA were compared with three groups who initiated dialysis outside the VA: (1) veterans whose dialysis was paid for by the VA, (2) veterans whose dialysis was not paid for by the VA, and (3) nonveterans. Logistic regression was used to estimate average predicted probabilities of dialysis initiation at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Results The adjusted probability of starting dialysis at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m2 increased over time for all groups but was lower for veterans who started dialysis within the VA (0.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.30 to 0.32) than for those starting outside the VA, including veterans whose dialysis was (0.36; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) and was not (0.40; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.40) paid for by the VA and nonveterans (0.39; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.39). Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were most pronounced among older patients (P for interaction <0.001) and those with a higher risk of 1-year mortality (P for interaction <0.001). Conclusions Temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation within the VA mirrored those in the wider United States dialysis population, but eGFR at initiation was consistently lowest among those who initiated within the VA. Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were especially pronounced in older patients and those with higher 1-year mortality risk. PMID:26206891

A Stab in the Dark?: A Research Note on Temporal Patterns of Street Robbery.

PubMed

Tompson, Lisa; Bowers, Kate

2013-11-01

Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature. Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year. Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models. Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study.

PubMed

Hacking, John M; Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-02-15

To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health.

Time trends in incidence and prevalence of carpal tunnel syndrome over eight years according to multiple data sources: Pays de la Loire study.

PubMed

Roquelaure, Yves; Chazelle, Emilie; Gautier, Ludivine; Plaine, Julie; Descatha, Alexis; Evanoff, Bradley; Bodin, Julie; Fouquet, Natacha; Catherine, Buisson

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to describe time trends of incidence/prevalence of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS), one of the most common musculoskeletal disorders, in a French region over an 8-year period. Methods Three independent data sources were analyzed for the population of the Pays de la Loire region aged 20-59 between 2004 and 2011: hospital discharge records for "surgically treated CTS" (SURG-CTS), the social insurance data on "CTS compensated for as an occupational disease" (OD-CTS), and the regional surveillance program of "work-related diseases" (WRD-CTS). Case counts were analyzed using negative binomial regression models and cubic spline curves with year as the main covariate. Results The annual incidence rates of SURG-CTS decreased from 3.35 to 2.98 per 1000 person-years over the 8-year period, with an overall declining trend [-2.00%, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) -3.07- -0.91%), P<0.001]. The annual incidence rate of OD-CTS per 1000 person-years decreased (from 1.52 to 1.01) between 2004 and 2007 and increased after 2007 (from 1.45 to 2.34), with an overall gain of 54% during the study period. The prevalence rate of WRD-CTS decreased from 5.04 (95% CI 3.90-6.13) to 3.08 (95% CI 2.11-4.06) per 1000 employed person-years, with a non-significant trend between 2004 and 2011. Conclusion The study showed declining rates of SURG-CTS and WRD-CTS in the population of working age between 2004 and 2011, contrasting with increasing rate of OD-CTS after 2007. More research and surveillance data are needed to assess whether and to what extent the declining rates of CTS are actually attributable to improvement in working conditions and/or to non-occupational factors.

Trends and Characteristics of Emergency Department Visits for Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Shankar, Kalpana N.; Liu, Shan W.; Ganz, David A.

2017-01-01

Introduction One third of older adults fall each year, and falls are costly to both the patient in terms of morbidity and mortality and to the health system. Given that falls are a preventable cause of injury, our objective was to understand the characteristics and trends of emergency department (ED) fall-related visits among older adults. We hypothesize that falls among older adults are increasing and examine potential factors associated with this rise, such as race, ethnicity, gender, insurance and geography. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) to determine fall trends over time by examining changes in ED visit rates for falls in the United States between 2003 and 2010, detailing differences by gender, sociodemographic characteristics and geographic region. Results Between 2003 and 2010, the visit rate for falls and fall-related injuries among people age ≥ 65 increased from 60.4 (95% confidence interval [CI][51.9–68.8]) to 68.8 (95% CI [57.8–79.8]) per 1,000 population (p=0.03 for annual trend). Among subgroups, visits by patients aged 75–84 years increased from 56.2 to 82.1 per 1,000 (P <.01), visits by women increased from 67.4 to 81.3 (p = 0.04), visits by non-Hispanic Whites increased from 63.1 to 73.4 (p < 0.01), and visits in the South increased from 54.4 to 71.1 (p=0.03). Conclusion ED visit rates for falls are increasing over time. There is a national movement to increase falls awareness and prevention. EDs are in a unique position to engage patients on future fall prevention and should consider ways they can also partake in such initiatives in a manner that is feasible and appropriate for the ED setting. PMID:28874929

The impact of codeine re-scheduling on misuse: a retrospective review of calls to Australia's largest poisons centre.

PubMed

Cairns, Rose; Brown, Jared A; Buckley, Nicholas A

2016-10-01

Codeine is the most commonly used opioid in the world, and is available over the counter (OTC) in many countries, including Australia. Several countries are reconsidering codeine's OTC status due to concerns over addiction and misuse, with serious morbidity and mortality being reported. Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration restricted codeine containing analgesics to 'Pharmacist Only' in 2010, and has recently been considering further up-scheduling to make codeine 'Prescription Only'. This paper estimated Australian trends of codeine misuse over the past 12 years, and examined whether trends changed following previous rescheduling efforts in 2010. A retrospective review of calls regarding codeine misuse made to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre (NSWPIC, Australia's largest poisons centre), 2004-15. Joinpoint software was used to quantify the average annual change in calls, and whether there was a significant change in trend at any time, including following rescheduling. Australia. Four hundred patients about whom a call was made to the NSWPIC. Calls per year, patient age, gender, tablets taken per day, formulation used, symptom disposition. The NSWPIC database contained 400 cases of codeine combination analgesic misuse from 2004 to 2015. Joinpoint analysis showed that the frequency of cases increased significantly from 2004 to 2015, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 19.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 13.8-25.5% P < 0.0001] for paracetamol/codeine and 17.9% (95% CI = 7.9-28.9%, P < 0.01) for ibuprofen/codeine. No significant change in trend was seen at any time, including following 2010 rescheduling. The median age of patients was 34 and 27 years for paracetamol/codeine and ibuprofen/codeine cases, respectively. Gender distribution was approximately equal. Clinical features reported were consistent with codeine, paracetamol and ibuprofen toxicity. Misuse of codeine combination products appears to be increasing in Australia. Limited rescheduling in 2010 failed to curb this increase. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Total insulinlike growth factor 1 and insulinlike growth factor binding protein levels, functional status, and mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Kaplan, Robert C; McGinn, Aileen P; Pollak, Michael N; Kuller, Lewis; Strickler, Howard D; Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, XiaoNan; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Newman, Anne B; Psaty, Bruce M

2008-04-01

To assess the association between total insulinlike growth factor (IGF)-1, IGF binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), and IGFBP-3 levels and functioning and mortality in older adults. Cohort study. One thousand one hundred twenty-two individuals aged 65 and older without prior cardiovascular disease events participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Baseline fasting plasma levels of IGF-1, IGFBP-1, and IGFBP-3 (defined as tertiles, T1-T3) were examined in relationship to handgrip strength, time to walk 15 feet, development of new difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs), and mortality. Higher IGFBP-1 predicted worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)<.01) and slower walking speed (P-trend(T1-T3)=.03), lower IGF-1 had a borderline significant association with worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)=.06), and better grip strength was observed in the middle IGFBP-3 tertile than in the low or high tertiles (P=.03). Adjusted for age, sex, and race, high IGFBP-1 predicted greater mortality (P-trend(T1-T3)<.001, hazard ratio (HR)(T3vsT1)=1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.15-1.90); this association was borderline significant after additional confounder adjustment (P-trend(T1-T3)=.05, HR(T3vsT1)=1.35, 95% CI=0.98-1.87). High IGFBP-1 was associated with greater risk of incident ADL difficulties after adjustment for age, sex, race, and other confounders (P-trend(T1-T3)=.04, HR(T3vsT1)=1.40, CI=1.01-1.94). Neither IGF-1 nor IGFBP-3 level predicted mortality or incident ADL difficulties. In adults aged 65 and older, high IGFBP-1 levels were associated with greater risk of mortality and poorer functional ability, whereas IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 had little association with these outcomes.

Physical activity and lower limb lymphedema among uterine cancer survivors.

PubMed

Brown, Justin C; John, Gabriella M; Segal, Saya; Chu, Christina S; Schmitz, Kathryn H

2013-11-01

Physical activity (PA) is known to provide physical and mental health benefits to uterine cancer survivors. However, it is unknown if PA is associated with lower limb lymphedema (LLL), an accumulation of protein-rich fluid in the lower limbs. Therefore, we sought to examine the association between PA and LLL in uterine cancer survivors, with a focus on walking. We conducted a cross-sectional study using mailed surveys among uterine cancer survivors who received care at a university-based cancer center. We asked about PA, walking, and LLL symptoms using validated self-report questionnaires. PA was calculated using MET-hours per week, and walking was calculated using blocks per day. The response rate to our survey was 43%. Among the 213 uterine cancer survivors in our survey, 36% were classified as having LLL. Compared with participants who reported <3 MET · h · wk of PA, participants who reported ≥ 18.0 MET · h · wk of PA had an odds ratio of LLL of 0.32 (95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.69; P trend = 0.003). Stratified analyses suggested the association between PA and LLL existed only among women with body mass index (BMI) <30 kg · m (P trend = 0.007) compared with women with BMI ≥ 30 kg · m (P trend = 0.47). Compared with participants who reported <4.0 blocks per day of walking, participants who reported ≥ 12 blocks per day of walking had an odds ratio of LLL of 0.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.43; P trend < 0.0001). Stratified analyses suggested the association between walking and LLL was similar among women with BMI <30 kg · m (P trend = 0.007) and women with BMI ≥ 30 kg · m (P trend = 0.03). Participation in higher levels of PA or walking is associated with reduced proportions of LLL in dose-response fashion. These findings should be interpreted as preliminary and should be investigated in future studies.

China: Demographic Billionaire.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tien, H. Yuan

1983-01-01

This document reviews China's population trends and policies since the People's Republic was founded in 1949. Areas addressed include: population growth before 1949, population growth from 1949-1982, and policy responses to population growth (including wan xi shao: later marriages, longer intervals between birth, and fewer children); mortality…

Trends in fatal motor vehicle crashes before and after marijuana commercialization in Colorado*

PubMed Central

Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T.; Thurstone, Christian; Hopfer, Christian

2014-01-01

Background Legal medical marijuana has been commercially available on a widespread basis in Colorado since mid-2009; however, there is a dearth of information about the impact of marijuana commercialization on impaired driving. This study examined if the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive and alcohol-impaired, respectively, have changed in Colorado before and after mid-2009 and then compared changes in Colorado with 34 non-medical marijuana states (NMMS). Methods Thirty-six 6-month intervals (1994–2011) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System were used to examine temporal changes in the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired (≥ 0.08 g/dl) and marijuana-positive, respectively. The pre-commercial marijuana time period in Colorado was defined as 1994–June 2009 while July 2009–2011 represented the post-commercialization period. Results In Colorado, since mid-2009 when medical marijuana became commercially available and prevalent, the trend became positive in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive (change in trend, 2.16 (0.45), p < 0.0001); in contrast, no significant changes were seen in NMMS. For both Colorado and NMMS, no significant changes were seen in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired. Conclusions Prevention efforts and policy changes in Colorado are needed to address this concerning trend in marijuana-positive drivers. In addition, education on the risks of marijuana-positive driving needs to be implemented. PMID:24831752

Agriculture-related trends in groundwater quality of the glacial deposits aquifer, central Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, D.A.

2008-01-01

Measuring and understanding trends in groundwater quality is necessary for determining whether changes in land-management practices have an effect on groundwater quality. This paper describes an approach that was used to measure and understand trends using data from two groundwater studies conducted in central Wisconsin as part of the USGS NAWQA program. One of the key components of this approach, determining the age of sampled groundwater, gave a temporal component to the snapshots of water quality that were obtained through synoptic-sampling efforts. This approach can be used at other locations where groundwater quality data are collected, groundwater age can be determined, and associated temporal data are available. Results of these studies indicate measured concentrations of nitrate and atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to historical patterns of fertilizer and atrazine use. Concentrations of nitrate in groundwater have increased over time; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine increased and then decreased. Concentrations of nitrate also were correlated to screen depth below the water level and concentrations of dissolved O2; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to dissolved O2 and annual precipitation. To measure trends in concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine, the data, collected over a near-decadal period, were adjusted to account for changes in laboratory-reporting levels and analytical recoveries. Only after accounting for these changes was it apparent that the median concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine decreased over the near-decadal interval between sampling efforts. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Trends in diabetes-related visits to US EDs from 1997 to 2007.

PubMed

Menchine, Michael D; Wiechmann, Warren; Peters, Anne L; Arora, Sanjay

2012-06-01

The aims of the study were to describe temporal trends in the number, proportion, and per capita use of diabetes-related emergency department (ED) visits and to examine any racial/ethnic disparity in ED use for diabetes-related reasons. We analyzed the ED portion of the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey from 1997 through 2007. Diabetes-related ED visits were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Descriptive statistics were developed. Weighted linear and logistic regression models were used to determine significance of temporal trends, and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine racial/ethnic disparities. A total of 20.2 million (1.69%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59%-1.78%) ED visits were diabetes-related during the study period. We observed significant increases in the number and proportion of diabetes-related ED visits. Overall, there was a 5.6% relative annual increase in the proportion of ED visits that were diabetes-related during the study period. However, the per capita ED use among the population with diabetes did not change over time (P>.05 for trend). On multivariate analysis, black race (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.7-2.0), Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.8), and advancing age were associated with significantly higher odds of having a diabetes-related visit. Despite a marked increase in number and proportion of diabetes-related ED visits during the study period, the per capita use of ED services for diabetes-related visits among the diabetic population remained stable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season.

Long-term trends in Chlamydia trachomatis infections and related outcomes in a U.S. managed care population.

PubMed

Scholes, Delia; Satterwhite, Catherine L; Yu, Onchee; Fine, David; Weinstock, Hillard; Berman, Stuart

2012-02-01

Given recent increasing case rates of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, we evaluated trends in chlamydia rates and related health outcomes in women and men aged 15 to 44 years who were enrolled in a Pacific Northwest health plan. We identified chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy, and male urethritis cases occurring annually during 1997-2007 using computerized health plan databases, calculating rates per 100,000 person-years (py) by gender and 5-year age groups. We also calculated annual chlamydia testing rates. In women, chlamydia testing rates increased by approximately 23% (220 tests per 1000 py in 1997 to 270 tests per 1000 in 2007). Chlamydia diagnosis rates rose from 449 cases/100,000 py in 1997 to 806/100,000 in 2007, a 79% increase (P = 0.01). Increases were greatest during 2005-2007, also the period of major conversion to nucleic acid amplification test. PID rates in this interval declined steadily from 823 cases/100,000 py to 473/100,000 (P < 0.01). Ectopic pregnancy rates remained unchanged. In men, chlamydia testing rates increased nearly 3.5-fold, from 12 to 42 tests per 1000 py. Chlamydia rates for men also rose significantly throughout the study interval (from 91 cases/100,000 py to 218/100,000; P < 0.01) as did urethritis diagnosis rates (P < 0.01). Between 1997 and 2007, annual health plan chlamydia rates increased significantly for both women and men. These trends may be due in part to increased testing rates and increased use of more sensitive tests, but they likely do not explain the increased urethritis rates. During this same interval, we observed steady declines in PID rates, consistent with other national data sources.

A rising trend in the incidence of advanced gastric cancer in young Hispanic men.

PubMed

Merchant, Shaila J; Kim, Joseph; Choi, Audrey H; Sun, Virginia; Chao, Joseph; Nelson, Rebecca

2017-03-01

Although the incidence of gastric cancer has been decreasing, recent reports suggest an increased rate in select populations. We sought to evaluate trends in gastric cancer incidence to identify high-risk populations. Gastric cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2011 were computed with use of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. We evaluated trends in incidence rates by calculating the annual percent change (APC) across three age groups (20-49 years, 50-64 years, and 65 years or older) and four racial/ethnic groups (Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders). We identified 41,428 patients with gastric cancer. For the entire cohort during the study period, the APC was decreased. When patients were grouped according to sex, the APC was flat or decreased in women regardless of age or race/ethnicity. The APC was also flat or decreased for all men except young Hispanic men (20-49 years), who had an increased APC of nearly 1.6 % (1.55 %, 95 % confidence interval 0.26-2.86 %). Furthermore, young Hispanic men were the only group to have increased incidence of stage IV disease (APC 4.34 %, 95 % confidence interval 2.76-5.94 %) and poorly differentiated tumors (APC 2.08 %, 95 % confidence interval 0.48-3.70 %). The APC of the incidence of gastric cancer in young Hispanic men places it among the top cancers with rising incidence in the USA. This is concomitant with increased incidence of advanced disease at presentation. This major public health concern warrants additional research to determine the cause of the increasing incidence in this group.

Independent and Synergistic Associations of Biomarkers of Vitamin D Status With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

PubMed

Qi, Lu; Ma, Wenjie; Heianza, Yoriko; Zheng, Yan; Wang, Tiange; Sun, Dianjianyi; Rimm, Eric B; Hu, Frank B; Giovannucci, Edward; Albert, Christine M; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Manson, JoAnn E

2017-11-01

To comprehensively evaluate the independent associations and potential interactions of vitamin D-related biomarkers including total and bioavailable 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), VDBP (vitamin D binding protein), and parathyroid hormone (PTH) with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We prospectively identified incident cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD among women in the Nurses' Health Study during 20 years of follow-up (1990-2010). Using risk-set sampling, 1 to 2 matched controls were selected for each case. The analysis of 25OHD and PTH included 382 cases and 575 controls; the analysis of VDBP included 396 cases and 398 controls. After multivariate adjustment, plasma levels of total 25OHD, bioavailable 25OHD, and PTH were not significantly associated with CHD risk. VDBP was associated with a lower CHD risk with an extreme-quartile odds ratio of 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.92; P trend=0.02). When examining the biomarkers jointly, a significant, inverse association between 25OHD and CHD was observed among participants with higher PTH levels ( P for interaction=0.02). The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest quartile of 25OHD to lowest was 0.43 (0.23-0.82; P trend=0.003) when PTH levels were above population median (35.3 pg/mL), whereas among the rest of participants the corresponding odds ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.28 (0.70-2.36; P trend=0.43). Our data suggest that higher 25OHD levels were associated with a lower CHD risk when PTH levels were high, whereas no association was observed for participants with low PTH levels. VDBP but not bioavailable 25OHD was independently associated with lower CHD risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of peripheral differential leukocyte counts with dyslipidemia risk in Chinese patients with hypertension: insight from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial.

PubMed

Liu, Yanhong; Kong, Xiangyi; Wang, Wen; Fan, Fangfang; Zhang, Yan; Zhao, Min; Wang, Yi; Wang, Yupeng; Wang, Yu; Qin, Xianhui; Tang, Genfu; Wang, Binyan; Xu, Xiping; Hou, Fan Fan; Gao, Wei; Sun, Ningling; Li, Jianping; Venners, Scott A; Jiang, Shanqun; Huo, Yong

2017-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the association between peripheral differential leukocyte counts and dyslipidemia in a Chinese hypertensive population. A total of 10,866 patients with hypertension were enrolled for a comprehensive assessment of cardiovascular risk factors using data from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial. Plasma lipid levels and total leukocyte, neutrophil, and lymphocyte counts were determined according to standard methods. Peripheral differential leukocyte counts were consistently and positively associated with serum total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), and TG levels (all P < 0.001 for trend), while inversely associated with HDL cholesterol levels (P < 0.05 for trend). In subsequent analyses where serum lipids were dichotomized (dyslipidemia/normolipidemia), we found that patients in the highest quartile of total leukocyte count (≥7.6 × 10 9 cells/l) had 1.64 times the risk of high TG [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.46, 1.85], 1.34 times the risk of high TC (95% CI: 1.20, 1.50), and 1.24 times the risk of high LDL-C (95% CI: 1.12, 1.39) compared with their counterparts in the lowest quartile of total leukocyte count. Similar patterns were also observed with neutrophils and lymphocytes. In summary, these findings indicate that elevated differential leukocyte counts are directly associated with serum lipid levels and increased odds of dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Attack rates of dengue fever in Swedish travellers.

PubMed

Rocklöv, Joacim; Lohr, Wolfgang; Hjertqvist, Marika; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2014-06-01

Dengue is endemic in many countries visited by Swedish travellers. We aimed to determine the attack rate of dengue in Swedish travellers and analyse the trends over time and the geographical variation. We obtained the following data from the Swedish Institute for Communicable Disease Control for the y 1995-2010: number of Swedish residents with confirmed dengue, the country and year of infection. We also obtained registers on the Swedish annual air traveller arrivals to dengue endemic areas from the United Nations World Tourist Organization for the time period. We estimated attack rates with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In total, 925 Swedish travellers with confirmed dengue were reported. We found an increasing trend over time for most destinations. The majority of the dengue cases were acquired in Thailand (492 out of 925 travellers; 53%), with an attack rate of 13.6 (95% CI 12.7, 14.4) per 100,000 travellers. However, the 2 highest attack rates per 100,000 travellers were found for Sri Lanka (45.3, 95% CI 34.3, 56.4) and Bangladesh (42.6, 95% CI 23.8, 61.5). Information on attack rates in travellers is more helpful in guiding travel medicine practitioners than reports of absolute numbers, as the latter reflect travel preferences rather than the true risk. Although the majority of dengue infections in Swedish travellers were acquired in Thailand, the attack rates for dengue in travellers to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were much higher. These data aid in refining information on the risk of dengue in travellers.

Plasma matrix metalloproteinase 1, 3, and 7 levels and breast cancer risk in the Nurses' Health study.

PubMed

Aroner, Sarah A; Rosner, Bernard A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Tworoger, Shelley S; Baur, Nadja; Joos, Thomas O; Hankinson, Susan E

2014-12-01

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), in particular MMP1, 3, and 7, are believed to be critical to breast cancer invasion and metastasis and also may have important functions earlier in breast carcinogenesis. However, the relationship between circulating levels of MMP1, 3, and 7 and breast cancer risk is uncertain. We examined associations between plasma MMP1, 3, and 7 and breast cancer risk in a prospective case-control study nested within the Nurses' Health Study. Blood samples were collected from 801 cases who developed breast cancer between 1992 and 2000 and 801 matched controls, and MMP levels were measured via immunofluorescence assay. No overall association was observed between any of these MMPs and breast cancer risk [top vs. bottom quintile; MMP1: odds ratio (OR) 0.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.7, 1.3; p-trend = 0.51; MMP3: OR 1.1; 95 % CI 0.8, 1.5; p-trend = 0.88; MMP7: OR = 1.2; 95 % CI 0.8, 1.7; p-trend = 0.18]. Further, findings did not significantly vary by time since blood draw, body mass index, or postmenopausal hormone use, or by breast cancer subtypes. Circulating MMP1, 3, and 7 levels do not appear to be predictive of overall breast cancer risk.

Reservoir sedimentology of the Big Injun sandstone in Granny Creek field, West Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Xiangdong; Donaldson, K.; Donaldson, A.C.

1992-01-01

Big Injun sandstones of Granny Creek oil field (WV) are interpreted as fluvial-deltaic deposits from core and geophysical log data. The reservoir consists of two distinctive lithologies throughout the field; fine-grained sandstones overlain by pebbly and coarse-grained sandstones. Lower fine-grained sandstones were deposited in westward prograding river-mouth bars, where distal, marine-dominant proximal, and fluvial-dominant proximal bar subfacies are recognized. Principal pay is marine-influenced proximal bar, where porosity ranges from 13 to 23% and permeability, up to 24 md. Thin marine transgressive shales and their laterally equivalent low-permeability sandstones bound time-rock sequences generally less than 10 meters thick. Where field mapped,more » width of prograding bar sequence is approximately 2.7 km (dip trend), measured from truncated eastern edge (pre-coarse-grained member erosional surface) to distal western margin. Dip-trending elongate lobes occur within marine-influenced proximal mouth-bar area, representing thickest part of tidally influenced preserved bar. Upper coarse-grained part of reservoir consists of pebbly sandstones of channel fill from bedload streams. Laterally persistent low permeability cemented interval in lower part commonly caps underlying pay zone and probably serves as seal to vertical oil migration. Southwest paleoflow trends based on thickness maps of unit portent emergence of West Virginia dome, which influences erosion patterns of pre-Greenbrier unconformity for this combination oil trap.« less

Miocene stratigraphy and structure of Sabine Pass, West Cameron, and East Cameron outer continental shelf areas, Louisiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, S.Y.; Watkins, J.S.

Mapping of Miocene stratigraphy and structure of the Sabine Pass, West Cameron, and East Cameron areas of the western Louisiana outer continental shelf - based on over 1300 mi of seismic data on a 4-mi grid, paleotops from 60 wells, and logs from 35 wells - resulted in time-structure and isochron maps at six intervals from the upper Pliocene to lower Miocene. The most pronounced structural features are the fault systems, which trend east-northeast to east along the Miocene stratigraphic trend. Isolated normal faults with small displacements characterize the inner inner shelf, whereas interconnected faults with greater displacements characterize themore » outer inner shelf. The inner inner shelf faults exhibit little growth, but expansion across the interconnected outer inner shelf fault ranges up to 1 sec two-way traveltime. The interconnected faults belong to two structurally independent fault families. The innermost shelf faults appear to root in the sediment column. A third set of faults located in the Sabine Pass area trends north-south. This fault set is thought to be related to basement movement and/or basement structure. Very little salt is evident in the area. A single diapir is located in West Cameron Block 110 and vicinity. There is little evidence of deep salt. Overall sediment thickness probably exceeds 20,000 ft, with the middle Miocene accounting for 8000 ft.« less

Temporal Trends in Exposure to Organophosphate Flame Retardants in the United States

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

During the past decade, use of organophosphate compounds as flame retardants and plasticizers has increased. Numerous studies investigating biomarkers (i.e., urinary metabolites) demonstrate ubiquitous human exposure and suggest that human exposure may be increasing. To formally assess temporal trends, we combined data from 14 U.S. epidemiologic studies for which our laboratory group previously assessed exposure to two commonly used organophosphate compounds, tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and triphenyl phosphate (TPHP). Using individual-level data and samples collected between 2002 and 2015, we assessed temporal and seasonal trends in urinary bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BDCIPP) and diphenyl phosphate (DPHP), the metabolites of TDCIPP and TPHP, respectively. Data suggest that BDCIPP concentrations have increased dramatically since 2002. Samples collected in 2014 and 2015 had BDCIPP concentrations that were more than 15 times higher than those collected in 2002 and 2003 (10β = 16.5; 95% confidence interval from 9.64 to 28.3). Our results also demonstrate significant increases in DPHP levels; however, increases were much smaller than for BDCIPP. Additionally, results suggest that exposure varies seasonally, with significantly higher levels of exposure in summer for both TDCIPP and TPHP. Given these increases, more research is needed to determine whether the levels of exposure experienced by the general population are related to adverse health outcomes. PMID:28317001

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.

Is Pedometer-Determined Physical Activity Decreasing in Czech Adults? Findings from 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Pelclová, Jana; Frömel, Karel; Řepka, Emil; Bláha, Ladislav; Suchomel, Aleš; Fojtík, Igor; Feltlová, Dana; Valach, Petr; Horák, Svatopluk; Nykodým, Jiří; Vorlíček, Michal

2016-10-24

Objective measured trend data are important for public health practice. However, these data are rare for an adult population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe time trends in pedometer-determined physical activity of Czech adults (25-65 years) from 2008 to 2013. Participants were Czech national citizens whose physical activity was assessed objectively using a Yamax Digiwalker SW-700 pedometer (Yamax Corporation, Tokyo, Japan) for seven consecutive days in the period 2008 to 2013. The final sample was 4647 Czech adults [M age 41.4 ± 10 years; M body mass index (BMI) 25.1 ± 3.7 kg/m²]. The results showed that men took more steps/day (M (Mean) = 10,014; 95% CI (Confidence Interval) = 9864-10,164) than women (M = 9448; 95% CI = 9322-9673) in all age and BMI groups. Mean steps/day declined from 2008 to 2013 by 852 steps/day in men and 1491 steps/day in women. In the whole sample, the proportion of participants who had a sedentary lifestyle (<5000 steps/day) increased by 5.8%; the proportion taking ≥10,000 steps/day decreased by 15.8%. In 2013, men and women were 2.67 and 2.05 times, respectively, more likely to have a physically inactive lifestyle (<7500 steps/day) than in 2008. Conversely, in 2008, men and women were 1.68 and 2.46 times, respectively, less likely to have very active lifestyle (>12,500 steps/day). In conclusion, this study suggests that there has been a substantial reduction in physical activity in Czech adults over time.

Sequential hand hygiene promotion contributes to a reduced nosocomial bloodstream infection rate among very low-birth weight infants: an interrupted time series over a 10-year period.

PubMed

Helder, Onno K; Brug, Johannes; van Goudoever, Johannes B; Looman, Caspar W N; Reiss, Irwin K M; Kornelisse, René F

2014-07-01

Sustained high compliance with hand hygiene (HH) is needed to reduce nosocomial bloodstream infections (NBSIs). However, over time, a wash out effect often occurs. We studied the long-term effect of sequential HH-promoting interventions. An observational study with an interrupted time series analysis of the occurrence of NBSI was performed in very low-birth weight (VLBW) infants. Interventions consisted of an education program, gain-framed screen saver messages, and an infection prevention week with an introduction on consistent glove use. A total of 1,964 VLBW infants admitted between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2011, were studied. The proportion of infants with ≥1 NBSI decreased from 47.6%-21.2% (P < .01); the number of NBSIs per 1,000 patient days decreased from 16.8-8.9 (P < .01). Preintervention, the number of NBSIs per 1,000 patient days significantly increased by 0.74 per quartile (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-1.22). The first intervention was followed by a significantly declining trend in NBSIs of -1.27 per quartile (95% CI, -2.04 to -0.49). The next interventions were followed by a neutral trend change. The relative contributions of coagulase-negative staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus as causative pathogens decreased significantly over time. Sequential HH promotion seems to contribute to a sustained low NBSI rate. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Initial Development of Transient Volcanic Plumes as a Function of Source Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tournigand, Pierre-Yves; Taddeucci, Jacopo; Gaudin, Damien; Peña Fernández, Juan José; Del Bello, Elisabetta; Scarlato, Piergiorgio; Kueppers, Ulrich; Sesterhenn, Jörn; Yokoo, Akihiko

2017-12-01

Transient volcanic plumes, having similar eruption duration and rise timescales, characterize many unsteady Strombolian to Vulcanian eruptions. Despite being more common, such plumes are less studied than their steady state counterpart from stronger eruptions. Here we investigate the initial dynamics of transient volcanic plumes using high-speed (visible light and thermal) and high-resolution (visible light) videos from Strombolian to Vulcanian eruptions of Stromboli (Italy), Fuego (Guatemala), and Sakurajima (Japan) volcanoes. Physical parameterization of the plumes has been performed by defining their front velocity, velocity field, volume, and apparent surface temperature. We also characterized the ejection of the gas-pyroclast mixture at the vent, in terms of number, location, duration, and frequency of individual ejection pulses and of time-resolved mass eruption rate of the ejecta's ash fraction. Front velocity evolves along two distinct trends related to the initial gas-thrust phase and later buoyant phase. Plumes' velocity field, obtained via optical flow analysis, highlights different features, including initial jets and the formation and/or merging of ring vortexes at different scales. Plume volume increases over time following a power law trend common to all volcanoes and affected by discharge history at the vent. Time-resolved ash eruption rates range between 102 and 107 kg/s and may vary up to 2 orders of magnitude within the first seconds of eruption. Our results help detailing how the number, location, angle, duration, velocity, and time interval between ejection pulses at the vents crucially control the initial (first tens of second), and possibly later, evolution of transient volcanic plumes.

Decorrelation Times of Photospheric Fields and Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welsch, B. T.; Kusano, K.; Yamamoto, T. T.; Muglach, K.

2012-01-01

We use autocorrelation to investigate evolution in flow fields inferred by applying Fourier Local Correlation Tracking (FLCT) to a sequence of high-resolution (0.3 "), high-cadence (approx = 2 min) line-of-sight magnetograms of NOAA active region (AR) 10930 recorded by the Narrowband Filter Imager (NFI) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite over 12 - 13 December 2006. To baseline the timescales of flow evolution, we also autocorrelated the magnetograms, at several spatial binnings, to characterize the lifetimes of active region magnetic structures versus spatial scale. Autocorrelation of flow maps can be used to optimize tracking parameters, to understand tracking algorithms f susceptibility to noise, and to estimate flow lifetimes. Tracking parameters varied include: time interval Delta t between magnetogram pairs tracked, spatial binning applied to the magnetograms, and windowing parameter sigma used in FLCT. Flow structures vary over a range of spatial and temporal scales (including unresolved scales), so tracked flows represent a local average of the flow over a particular range of space and time. We define flow lifetime to be the flow decorrelation time, tau . For Delta t > tau, tracking results represent the average velocity over one or more flow lifetimes. We analyze lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls as functions of magnetic field strength and spatial scale. We find a significant trend of increasing lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls with field strength, consistent with Lorentz forces partially governing flows in the active photosphere, as well as strong trends of increasing flow lifetime and decreasing magnitudes with increases in both spatial scale and Delta t.

Mortality trends in Australian Aboriginal peoples and New Zealand Māori.

PubMed

Phillips, Bronwen; Daniels, John; Woodward, Alistair; Blakely, Tony; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen

2017-01-01

The health status of Indigenous populations of Australia and New Zealand (NZ) Māori manifests as life expectancies substantially lower than the total population. Accurate assessment of time trends in mortality and life expectancy allows evaluation of progress in reduction of health inequalities compared to the national or non-Indigenous population. Age-specific mortality and life expectancy (at birth) (LE) for Indigenous populations (Australia from 1990 and NZ from 1950); and all Australia and non-Māori NZ (from 1890), males (M) and females (F), were obtained from published sources and national statistical agency reports. Period trends were assessed for credible estimates of Indigenous LE, and the LE gap compared to the total population for Australia, and non-Māori for NZ. Period trends in premature adult mortality, as cumulative probability of dying over 15-59 years, were assessed similarly. The relative contribution of differences in age-specific mortality to the LE gap between Indigenous and the all-Australia population, and the non-Māori NZ, was estimated for each country by sex for the most recent period: 2010-2012 for Australia, 2012-2014 for NZ. LE increased for all populations, although LE gaps between Indigenous and all Australia showed little change over time. LE gaps between NZ Māori and non-Māori increased significantly from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and since then have fallen again. Recent LE gaps in Australia (M 12.5; F 12.0 years in 2010-2012) were larger than in NZ (M 7.3; F 6.8 years in 2012-2014). Premature adult mortality (15-59 years) improved for all populations, but mortality ratios show little change since 2000, with Indigenous at 3½-4 times that of all Australians, and Māori 2-3 times that of non-Māori. Using decomposition analysis, the age interval contributing most strongly to differences in LE between Indigenous and all Australia was 35-59 years, but between Māori and non-Māori it was 60-74 years. In Australia and NZ, Indigenous LE and adult mortality are improving in absolute terms, but not relative to the entire or non-Indigenous populations, causing gaps in life expectancy to persist.

The combined effects of forward masking by noise and high click rate on monaural and binaural human auditory nerve and brainstem potentials.

PubMed

Pratt, Hillel; Polyakov, Andrey; Bleich, Naomi; Mittelman, Naomi

2004-07-01

To study effects of forward masking and rapid stimulation on human monaurally- and binaurally-evoked brainstem potentials and suggest their relation to synaptic fatigue and recovery and to neuronal action potential refractoriness. Auditory brainstem evoked potentials (ABEPs) were recorded from 12 normally- and symmetrically hearing adults, in response to each click (50 dB nHL, condensation and rarefaction) in a train of nine, with an inter-click interval of 11 ms, that followed a white noise burst of 100 ms duration (50 dB nHL). Sequences of white noise and click train were repeated at a rate of 2.89 s(-1). The interval between noise and first click in the train was 2, 11, 22, 44, 66 or 88 ms in different runs. ABEPs were averaged (8000 repetitions) using a dwell time of 25 micros/address/channel. The binaural interaction components (BICs) of ABEPs were derived and the single, centrally located equivalent dipoles of ABEP waves I and V and of the BIC major wave were estimated. The latencies of dipoles I and V of ABEP, their inter-dipole interval and the dipole magnitude of component V were significantly affected by the interval between noise and clicks and by the serial position of the click in the train. The latency and dipole magnitude of the major BIC component were significantly affected by the interval between noise and clicks. Interval from noise and the click's serial position in the train interacted to affect dipole V latency, dipole V magnitude, BIC latencies and the V-I inter-dipole latency difference. Most of the effects were fully apparent by the first few clicks in the train, and the trend (increase or decrease) was affected by the interval between noise and clicks. The changes in latency and magnitude of ABEP and BIC components with advancing position in the click train and the interactions of click position in the train with the intervals from noise indicate an interaction of fatigue and recovery, compatible with synaptic depletion and replenishing, respectively. With the 2 ms interval between noise and the first click in the train, neuronal action potential refractoriness may also be involved.

Improvement in Care and Outcomes for Emergency Medical Service-Transported Patients With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) With and Without Prehospital Cardiac Arrest: A Mission: Lifeline STEMI Accelerator Study.

PubMed

Kragholm, Kristian; Lu, Di; Chiswell, Karen; Al-Khalidi, Hussein R; Roettig, Mayme L; Roe, Matthew; Jollis, James; Granger, Christopher B

2017-10-11

Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may benefit from direct transport to a percutaneous cardiac intervention (PCI) hospital but have previously been less likely to bypass local non-PCI hospitals to go to a PCI center. We reported time trends in emergency medical service transport and care of patients with STEMI with and without OHCA included from 171 PCI-capable hospitals in 16 US regions with participation in the Mission: Lifeline STEMI Accelerator program between July 1, 2012, and March 31, 2014. Time trends by quarter were assessed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for hospital clustering. Of 13 189 emergency medical service-transported patients, 88.7% (N=11 703; 10.5% OHCA) were taken directly to PCI hospitals. Among 1486 transfer-in patients, 21.7% had OHCA. Direct transport to a PCI center for OHCA increased from 74.7% (July 1, 2012) to 83.6% (March 31, 2014) (odds ratio per quarter, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.14), versus 89.0% to 91.0% for patients without OHCA (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.07; interaction P =0.23). The proportion with prehospital ECGs increased for patients taken directly to PCI centers (53.9%-61.9% for those with OHCA versus 73.9%-81.9% for those without OHCA; interaction P =0.12). Of 997 patients with OHCA taken directly to PCI hospitals and treated with primary PCI, first medical contact-to-device times within the guideline-recommended goal of ≤90 minutes were met for 34.5% on July 1, 2012, versus 41.8% on March 31, 2014 (51.6% and 56.1%, respectively, for 9352 counterparts without OHCA; interaction P =0.72). Direct transport to PCI hospitals increased for patients with STEMI with and without OHCA during the 2012 to 2014 Mission: Lifeline STEMI Accelerator program. Proportions with prehospital ECGs and timely reperfusion increased for patients taken directly to PCI hospitals. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The Joint Association of Eating Frequency and Diet Quality With Colorectal Cancer Risk in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study

PubMed Central

Mekary, Rania A.; Willett, Walter C.; Chiuve, Stephanie; Wu, Kana; Fuchs, Charles; Fung, Teresa T.; Giovannucci, Edward

2012-01-01

The results of most case-control studies have suggested a positive association between eating frequency and colorectal cancer risk. Because no prospective cohort studies have done so to date, the authors prospectively examined this association. In 1992, eating frequency was assessed in a cohort of 34,968 US men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for various levels of eating frequency. Effect modifications by overall dietary quality (assessed using the Diet Approaches to Stop Hypertension score) and by factors that influence insulin resistance were further assessed. Between 1992 and 2006, a total of 583 cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed. When comparing the highest eating frequency category (5–8 times/day) with the reference category (3 times/day), the authors found no evidence of an increased risk of colorectal cancer (multivariate relative risk = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 1.26) or colon cancer (multivariate relative risk = 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 1.25). There was an implied inverse association with eating frequency among participants who had healthier diets (high Diet Approaches to Stop Hypertension score; P for interaction = 0.01), especially among men in the high-insulin-sensitivity group (body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) <25, ≥2 cups of coffee/day, and more physical activity; P for interaction < 0.01, P for trend = 0.01). There was an implied protective association between increased eating frequency of healthy meals and colorectal cancer risk and in men with factors associated with higher insulin sensitivity. PMID:22387430

Normal variation in sagittal spinal alignment parameters in adult patients: an EOS study using serial imaging.

PubMed

Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis; Tan, Kian Loong Melvin; Moorthy, Vikaesh; Lau, Eugene Tze-Chun; Lau, Leok-Lim; Liu, Gabriel; Wong, Hee-Kit

2018-03-01

To describe normal variations in sagittal spinal radiographic parameters over an interval period and establish physiological norms and guidelines for which these images should be interpreted. Data were prospectively collected from a continuous series of adult patients with first-episode mild low back pain presenting to a single institution. The sagittal parameters of two serial radiographic images taken 6-months apart were obtained with the EOS ® slot scanner. Measured parameters include CL, TK, TL, LL, PI, PT, SS, and end and apical vertebrae. Chi-squared test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank test were used to compare categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Sixty patients with a total of 120 whole-body sagittal X-rays were analysed. Mean age was 52.1 years (SD 21.2). Mean interval between the first and second X-rays was 126.2 days (SD 47.2). Small variations (< 1°) occur for all except PT (1.2°), CL (1.2°), and SVA (2.9 cm). Pelvic tilt showed significant difference between two images (p = 0.035). Subgroup analysis based on the time interval between X-rays, and between the first and second X-rays, did not show significant differences. Consistent findings were found for end and apical vertebrae of the thoracic and lumbar spine between the first and second X-rays for sagittal curve shapes. Radiographic sagittal parameters vary between serial images and reflect dynamism in spinal balancing. SVA and PT are predisposed to the widest variation. SVA has the largest variation between individuals of low pelvic tilt. Therefore, interpretation of these parameters should be patient specific and relies on trends rather than a one-time assessment.

Extracting respiratory information from seismocardiogram signals acquired on the chest using a miniature accelerometer.

PubMed

Pandia, Keya; Inan, Omer T; Kovacs, Gregory T A; Giovangrandi, Laurent

2012-10-01

Seismocardiography (SCG) is a non-invasive measurement of the vibrations of the chest caused by the heartbeat. SCG signals can be measured using a miniature accelerometer attached to the chest, and are thus well-suited for unobtrusive and long-term patient monitoring. Additionally, SCG contains information relating to both cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this work, algorithms were developed for extracting three respiration-dependent features of the SCG signal: intensity modulation, timing interval changes within each heartbeat, and timing interval changes between successive heartbeats. Simultaneously with a reference respiration belt, SCG signals were measured from 20 healthy subjects and a respiration rate was estimated using each of the three SCG features and the reference signal. The agreement between each of the three accelerometer-derived respiration rate measurements was computed with respect to the respiration rate derived from the reference respiration belt. The respiration rate obtained from the intensity modulation in the SCG signal was found to be in closest agreement with the respiration rate obtained from the reference respiration belt: the bias was found to be 0.06 breaths per minute with a 95% confidence interval of -0.99 to 1.11 breaths per minute. The limits of agreement between the respiration rates estimated using SCG (intensity modulation) and the reference were within the clinically relevant ranges given in existing literature, demonstrating that SCG could be used for both cardiovascular and respiratory monitoring. Furthermore, phases of each of the three SCG parameters were investigated at four instances of a respiration cycle-start inspiration, peak inspiration, start expiration, and peak expiration-and during breath hold (apnea). The phases of the three SCG parameters observed during the respiration cycle were congruent with existing literature and physiologically expected trends.

Detrital and oceanic dysoxia influence on OAE2 sediment geochemistry from Tarfaya, SW Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turgeon, S. C.; Kolonic, S.; Brumsack, H.-J.; Wagner, T.

2003-04-01

The Cretaceous "greenhouse" world's stratigraphic record is punctuated by several important organic-rich intervals representing quasi-global "Oceanic Anoxic Events" (OAEs). This study focuses on sediments from Tarfaya in SW Morocco deposited during the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE or OAE2 at 93.5 Ma). These sediments consist of distinctly laminated, carbonate-rich black shales alternating with lighter coloured structureless intervals and sporadic chert lenses. Sediments from three sites representing proximal to distal settings were studied. Samples were analysed for Ctot, Corg, Stot, as well as several major-, minor- and trace elements using XRF and ICP-MS. These sediments are characterised by high Corg, Stot, and CaCO3 contents and consist of a simple two component mixing system ("average shale"-CaCO3). Major element concentrations are low, except for Ca and P, owing in part to the carbonate dilution effect. Most elements plot along "average shale" lines. Elements such as Si, Ti, Fe, K, Rb, and Zr show positive relationships with Al2O3, pointing to homogeneous source area material. Several Al-normalised elements (As, Ba, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sr, U, V, Y, Zn), many of them redox-sensitive or sulphide-residing, are enriched in the sediments indicating an oxygen-depleted environment and potential availability of hydrogen sulfide in the water column at the time of deposition. High Zn concentrations suggest increased submarine volcanism and/or hydrothermal activity during this time interval. High Ba concentrations are possibly indicative of high regional paleoproductivity, which is further supported by the elevated P concentrations hinting at nutrient availability. Basinward trends in the geochemical distribution of some elements are apparent and probably reflect the decreasing influence of terrestrial sediments away from the shoreline.

Timescale- and Sensory Modality-Dependency of the Central Tendency of Time Perception.

PubMed

Murai, Yuki; Yotsumoto, Yuko

2016-01-01

When individuals are asked to reproduce intervals of stimuli that are intermixedly presented at various times, longer intervals are often underestimated and shorter intervals overestimated. This phenomenon may be attributed to the central tendency of time perception, and suggests that our brain optimally encodes a stimulus interval based on current stimulus input and prior knowledge of the distribution of stimulus intervals. Two distinct systems are thought to be recruited in the perception of sub- and supra-second intervals. Sub-second timing is subject to local sensory processing, whereas supra-second timing depends on more centralized mechanisms. To clarify the factors that influence time perception, the present study investigated how both sensory modality and timescale affect the central tendency. In Experiment 1, participants were asked to reproduce sub- or supra-second intervals, defined by visual or auditory stimuli. In the sub-second range, the magnitude of the central tendency was significantly larger for visual intervals compared to auditory intervals, while visual and auditory intervals exhibited a correlated and comparable central tendency in the supra-second range. In Experiment 2, the ability to discriminate sub-second intervals in the reproduction task was controlled across modalities by using an interval discrimination task. Even when the ability to discriminate intervals was controlled, visual intervals exhibited a larger central tendency than auditory intervals in the sub-second range. In addition, the magnitude of the central tendency for visual and auditory sub-second intervals was significantly correlated. These results suggest that a common modality-independent mechanism is responsible for the supra-second central tendency, and that both the modality-dependent and modality-independent components of the timing system contribute to the central tendency in the sub-second range.

Evolution of treatment of fistula in ano.

PubMed

Blumetti, J; Abcarian, A; Quinteros, F; Chaudhry, V; Prasad, L; Abcarian, H

2012-05-01

Fistula-in-ano is a common medical problem affecting thousands of patients annually. In the past, the options for treatment of fistula-in-ano were limited to fistulotomy and/or seton placement. Current treatment options also include muscle-sparing techniques such as a dermal island flap, endorectal advancement flap, fibrin sealent injection, anal fistula plug, and most recently ligation of the intersphincteric fistula tract (procedure). This study seeks to evaluate types and time trends for treatment of fistula-in-ano. A retrospective review from 1975 to 2009 was performed. Data were collected and sorted into 5-year increments for type and time trends of treatment. Fistulotomy and partial fistulotomy were grouped as cutting procedures. Seton placement, fibrin sealant, dermal flap, endorectal flap, and fistula plug were grouped as noncutting procedures. Statistical analysis was performed for each time period to determine trends. With institutional review board approval, the records of 2,267 fistula operations available for analysis were included. Most of the patients were men (74 vs. 26%). Cutting procedures comprised 66.6% (n = 1510) of all procedures. Noncutting procedures were utilized in 33.4% (n = 757), including Seton placement alone 370 (16.3%), fibrin sealant 168 (7.4%), dermal or endorectal flap 147 (6.5%), and fistula plug 72 (3.2%). The distribution of operations grouped in 5-year intervals is as follows: 1975-1979, 78 cutting and one noncutting; 1980-1984, 170 cutting and 10 noncutting; 1985-1989, 54 cutting and five noncutting; 1990-1994, 37 cutting and six noncutting; 1995-1999, 367 cutting and 167 noncutting; 2000-2004, 514 cutting and 283 noncutting; 2005-2009, 290 cutting and 285 noncutting. The percentage of cutting and noncutting procedures significantly differed over time, with cutting procedures decreasing and noncutting procedures increasing proportionally (χ(2) linear-by-linear association, p < 0.05). Fistula-in-ano remains a common complex disease process. Its treatment has evolved to include a variety of noncutting techniques in addition to traditional fistulotomy. With the advent of more sphincter-sparing techniques, the number of patients undergoing fistulotomy should continue to decrease over time. Surgeons should become familiar with various surgical techniques so the treatment can be tailored to the patient.

Evaluation of statistical methods for quantifying fractal scaling in water-quality time series with irregular sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Harman, Ciaran J.; Kirchner, James W.

2018-02-01

River water-quality time series often exhibit fractal scaling, which here refers to autocorrelation that decays as a power law over some range of scales. Fractal scaling presents challenges to the identification of deterministic trends because (1) fractal scaling has the potential to lead to false inference about the statistical significance of trends and (2) the abundance of irregularly spaced data in water-quality monitoring networks complicates efforts to quantify fractal scaling. Traditional methods for estimating fractal scaling - in the form of spectral slope (β) or other equivalent scaling parameters (e.g., Hurst exponent) - are generally inapplicable to irregularly sampled data. Here we consider two types of estimation approaches for irregularly sampled data and evaluate their performance using synthetic time series. These time series were generated such that (1) they exhibit a wide range of prescribed fractal scaling behaviors, ranging from white noise (β = 0) to Brown noise (β = 2) and (2) their sampling gap intervals mimic the sampling irregularity (as quantified by both the skewness and mean of gap-interval lengths) in real water-quality data. The results suggest that none of the existing methods fully account for the effects of sampling irregularity on β estimation. First, the results illustrate the danger of using interpolation for gap filling when examining autocorrelation, as the interpolation methods consistently underestimate or overestimate β under a wide range of prescribed β values and gap distributions. Second, the widely used Lomb-Scargle spectral method also consistently underestimates β. A previously published modified form, using only the lowest 5 % of the frequencies for spectral slope estimation, has very poor precision, although the overall bias is small. Third, a recent wavelet-based method, coupled with an aliasing filter, generally has the smallest bias and root-mean-squared error among all methods for a wide range of prescribed β values and gap distributions. The aliasing method, however, does not itself account for sampling irregularity, and this introduces some bias in the result. Nonetheless, the wavelet method is recommended for estimating β in irregular time series until improved methods are developed. Finally, all methods' performances depend strongly on the sampling irregularity, highlighting that the accuracy and precision of each method are data specific. Accurately quantifying the strength of fractal scaling in irregular water-quality time series remains an unresolved challenge for the hydrologic community and for other disciplines that must grapple with irregular sampling.

High resolution data acquisition

DOEpatents

Thornton, G.W.; Fuller, K.R.

1993-04-06

A high resolution event interval timing system measures short time intervals such as occur in high energy physics or laser ranging. Timing is provided from a clock, pulse train, and analog circuitry for generating a triangular wave synchronously with the pulse train (as seen in diagram on patent). The triangular wave has an amplitude and slope functionally related to the time elapsed during each clock pulse in the train. A converter forms a first digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the start of the event interval and a second digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the end of the event interval. A counter counts the clock pulse train during the interval to form a gross event interval time. A computer then combines the gross event interval time and the first and second digital values to output a high resolution value for the event interval.

High resolution data acquisition

DOEpatents

Thornton, Glenn W.; Fuller, Kenneth R.

1993-01-01

A high resolution event interval timing system measures short time intervals such as occur in high energy physics or laser ranging. Timing is provided from a clock (38) pulse train (37) and analog circuitry (44) for generating a triangular wave (46) synchronously with the pulse train (37). The triangular wave (46) has an amplitude and slope functionally related to the time elapsed during each clock pulse in the train. A converter (18, 32) forms a first digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the start of the event interval and a second digital value of the amplitude and slope of the triangle wave at the end of the event interval. A counter (26) counts the clock pulse train (37) during the interval to form a gross event interval time. A computer (52) then combines the gross event interval time and the first and second digital values to output a high resolution value for the event interval.

Detection of Functional Change Using Cluster Trend Analysis in Glaucoma.

PubMed

Gardiner, Stuart K; Mansberger, Steven L; Demirel, Shaban

2017-05-01

Global analyses using mean deviation (MD) assess visual field progression, but can miss localized changes. Pointwise analyses are more sensitive to localized progression, but more variable so require confirmation. This study assessed whether cluster trend analysis, averaging information across subsets of locations, could improve progression detection. A total of 133 test-retest eyes were tested 7 to 10 times. Rates of change and P values were calculated for possible re-orderings of these series to generate global analysis ("MD worsening faster than x dB/y with P < y"), pointwise and cluster analyses ("n locations [or clusters] worsening faster than x dB/y with P < y") with specificity exactly 95%. These criteria were applied to 505 eyes tested over a mean of 10.5 years, to find how soon each detected "deterioration," and compared using survival models. This was repeated including two subsequent visual fields to determine whether "deterioration" was confirmed. The best global criterion detected deterioration in 25% of eyes in 5.0 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-5.3 years), compared with 4.8 years (95% CI, 4.2-5.1) for the best cluster analysis criterion, and 4.1 years (95% CI, 4.0-4.5) for the best pointwise criterion. However, for pointwise analysis, only 38% of these changes were confirmed, compared with 61% for clusters and 76% for MD. The time until 25% of eyes showed subsequently confirmed deterioration was 6.3 years (95% CI, 6.0-7.2) for global, 6.3 years (95% CI, 6.0-7.0) for pointwise, and 6.0 years (95% CI, 5.3-6.6) for cluster analyses. Although the specificity is still suboptimal, cluster trend analysis detects subsequently confirmed deterioration sooner than either global or pointwise analyses.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006.

PubMed

Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Madeleine, George; Romain, Sarah; Gabriel, Anne; Bovet, Pascal

2008-05-19

Height of individuals has long been considered as a significant index of nutrition and health of a population; still, there is little information regarding the trends of height and weight among developing or transitional countries. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight in children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the Indian Ocean (African region). Height and weight were measured in all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th grades) for the periods 1998-9 (6391 children) and 2005-6 (8582 children). Data for 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were on average 10/13 cm taller and 15/9 kg heavier in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Height increased in boys/girls by 1.62/0.93 cm/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and by 1.14/1.82 cm/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. For weight, the linear increase in boys/girls was 1.38/1.10 kg/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and 2.21/2.50 kg/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. Overall, the relative increase in weight between 1956-7 and 2005-6 was 5-fold higher than the relative increase in height. Height and weight increased markedly over time in children aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50-year interval. The markedly steeper increase in weight than height over time is consistent with an epidemic of overweight and obesity.

The effect of an educational intervention on meperidine use in Nova Scotia, Canada: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Fisher, Judith E; Zhang, Ying; Sketris, Ingrid; Johnston, Grace; Burge, Fred

2012-02-01

To evaluate the impact of a prescriber focused individual educational and audit-feedback intervention undertaken by the Nova Scotia Prescription Monitoring Program (NSPMP) in March/April 2007 to reduce meperidine use. The NSPMP records all prescriptions for controlled substances dispensed in community pharmacies in Nova Scotia, Canada. Oral meperidine use from 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2009 was examined using NSPMP data. Monthly totals for the following were obtained: number of individual patients who filled at least one meperidine prescription, number of prescriptions, and number of tablets dispensed. Data were analyzed graphically to observe overall trends. The intervention effect was estimated on the logarithmic scale with autocorrelations over time modeled by an integrated autoregressive moving average model for each outcome measure. An overall trend toward decreasing use from July 2005 to December 2009 was apparent for all three outcome measures. The intervention was associated with a statistically significant reduction in meperidine use, after adjusting for the overall long-term trend. Compared with the pre-intervention period, the monthly number of patients declined by 12% (p < 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5%-18%), prescriptions by 10% (p < 0.001; 95%CI = 3%-17%), and tablets by 13.5% (p < 0.001, 95%CI = 6%-29%) in the post-intervention period. Given the risks associated with meperidine, determining that this intervention successfully reduced meperidine use is encouraging. This study highlights the potential for using population data such as the NSPMP to evaluate the effectiveness of population-level interventions to improve medication use, including professional, organizational, financial, and regulatory initiatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening.

PubMed

Zicker, F; Martelli, C M; de Andrade, A L; Almeida e Silva, S

1990-01-01

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiánia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hemagglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5%). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Alpine plant community trends on the elk summer range of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado: An analysis of existing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigenfuss, Linda C.

2006-01-01

The majority of the elk (Cervus elaphus) population of Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado summer in the park’s high-elevation alpine and subalpine meadows and willow krummholz. The park’s population of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus altipetens) depends on both dwarf and krummholz willows for food and cover. Concern about the effects of elk herbivory on these communities prompted the monitoring of 12 vegetation transects in these regions from 1971 to 1996. Over this 25-year period, data were collected on plant species cover and frequency and shrub heights. These data have not been statistically analyzed for trends in the measured variables over time to determine changes in species abundance. Krummholz willow species (Salix planifolia, S. brachycarpa) declined 17–20 percent in cover and about 25 centimeters in height over the study period. Graminoids (particularly Deschampsia caespitosa, Carex, and Poa) increased slightly from 1971 to 1996. No significant increases of nonnative plant species were observed. An increase in presence of bare ground over the 25-year period warrants continued measurement of these transects. Lack of good data on elk density, distribution, or use levels precludes correlating changes in plant species cover, frequency, or heights with elk population trends. I recommend development of a more rigorously designed monitoring program that includes these transects as well as others chosen on a random or stratified design and consistent measurement protocol and sampling intervals. Some method of quantifying elk use, either through measurement of plant utilization, pellet counts, or census-type surveys, would allow correlation of changes in plant species over time with changes in elk distribution and density on the park’s alpine and subalpine regions.

Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

PubMed

Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

2011-01-01

Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (<3 MET), moderate LTPA (3-6 MET) and vigorous LTPA (>6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (P<.001) between 1995-2008; for both genders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (P<.001) for total LTPA; -0.1 (P<.001) for light; -0.08 (P<.001) for moderate; and -0.03 (P=.192) for vigorous. This decline is reflected by a shift to the left of the LTPA distribution in the population. Occupational physical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

2017-09-18

We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

Longitudinal evaluation of a World Wide Web-based antimicrobial stewardship program: assessing factors associated with approval patterns and trends over time.

PubMed

Venugopal, Vidya; Lehmann, Christoph U; Diener-West, Marie; Agwu, Allison L

2014-02-01

The Johns Hopkins Children's Medical and Surgery Center developed a Web-based Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in 2005. The present study aimed to assess longitudinal antimicrobial request and approval patterns for this ASP. We analyzed a total of 16,229 antimicrobial requests for 3,542 patients between June 1, 2005, and June 30, 2009. Antimicrobial approval was the outcome of interest. We assessed gaming by studying trends in automatically approved requests. Nonparametric tests for trend were performed to detect changes in approval patterns. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with approval. The vast majority (91.3%) of antimicrobial requests were approved, with an increase of 6.1% over time (P < .01). Renewal requests were more likely than primary requests (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-2.04) to be approved. Antiviral requests had higher odds of approval than antibiotic requests (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-1.56). Compared with requests by medical services, requests by surgical services had lower odds of approval (aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.83), whereas pediatric intensive care requests had higher odds of approval (aOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.00-1.40). The number of auto-approved requests remained consistent. The Web-based ASP allows management of a large number of antimicrobial requests, without apparent gaming. Observed differences in approval patterns based on patient, requestor, and antimicrobial factors may inform the development of ASPs and evaluation of provider education and training. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John; Smith, Lesley

2005-06-01

An analysis and evaluation has been performed of global datasets on column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water). For years before 1996, the Ross and Elliott radiosonde dataset is used for validation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses ERA-40. Only the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) dataset from remote sensing systems (RSS) has credible means, variability and trends for the oceans, but it is available only for the post-1988 period. Major problems are found in the means, variability and trends from 1988 to 2001 for both reanalyses from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the ERA-40 reanalysis over the oceans, and for the NASA water vapor project (NVAP) dataset more generally. NCEP and ERA-40 values are reasonable over land where constrained by radiosondes. Accordingly, users of these data should take great care in accepting results as real. The problems highlight the need for reprocessing of data, as has been done by RSS, and reanalyses that adequately take account of the changing observing system. Precipitable water variability for 1988 2001 is dominated by the evolution of ENSO and especially the structures that occurred during and following the 1997 98 El Niño event. The evidence from SSM/I for the global ocean suggests that recent trends in precipitable water are generally positive and, for 1988 through 2003, average 0.40±0.09 mm per decade or 1.3±0.3% per decade for the ocean as a whole, where the error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Over the oceans, the precipitable water variability relates very strongly to changes in SSTs, both in terms of spatial structure of trends and temporal variability (with a regression coefficient for 30°N 30°S of 7.8% K-1) and is consistent with the assumption of fairly constant relative humidity. In the tropics, the trends are also influenced by changes in rainfall which, in turn, are closely associated with the mean flow and convergence of moisture by the trade winds. The main region where positive trends are not very evident is over Europe, in spite of large and positive trends over the North Atlantic since 1988. A much longer time series is probably required to obtain stable patterns of trends over the oceans, although the main variability could probably be deduced from past SST and associated precipitation variations.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2006, Featuring Colorectal Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Ward, Elizabeth; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie; Zauber, Ann G.; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Schymura, Maria J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Seeff, Laura C.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Goede, S. Luuk; Ries, Lynn A. G.

2009-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information about cancer occurrence and trends in the United States (U.S.). This year’s report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 U.S. population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2006) trends and short-term fixed interval (1997–2006) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (i.e., lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for two of the 3 leading cancers in women (i.e., breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women showed smaller and smaller increases until 2003 when there was a change to a non-significant decline. Microsimulation modeling shows that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but could be further accelerated with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern. PMID:19998273

Time to first take-back operation predicts successful primary fascial closure in patients undergoing damage control laparotomy.

PubMed

Pommerening, Matthew J; DuBose, Joseph J; Zielinski, Martin D; Phelan, Herb A; Scalea, Thomas M; Inaba, Kenji; Velmahos, George C; Whelan, James F; Wade, Charles E; Holcomb, John B; Cotton, Bryan A

2014-08-01

Failure to achieve primary fascial closure (PFC) after damage control laparotomy is costly and carries great morbidity. We hypothesized that time from the initial laparotomy to the first take-back operation would be predictive of successful PFC. Trauma patients managed with open abdominal techniques after damage control laparotomy were prospectively followed at 14 Level 1 trauma centers during a 2-year period. Time to the first take-back was evaluated as a predictor of PFC using hierarchical multivariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 499 patients underwent damage control laparotomy and were included in this analysis. PFC was achieved in 327 (65.5%) patients. Median time to the first take-back operation was 36 hours (interquartile range 24-48). After we adjusted for patient demographics, resuscitation volumes, and operative characteristics, increasing time to the first take-back was associated with a decreased likelihood of PFC. Specifically, each hour delay in return to the operating room (24 hours after initial laparotomy) was associated with a 1.1% decrease in the odds of PFC (odds ratio 0.989; 95% confidence interval 0.978-0.999; P = .045). In addition, there was a trend towards increased intra-abdominal complications in patients returning after 48 hours (odds ratio 1.80; 95% confidence interval 1.00-3.25; P = .05). Data from this prospective, multicenter study demonstrate that delays in returning to the operating room after damage control laparotomy are associated with reductions in PFC. These findings suggest that emphasis should be placed on returning to the operating room within 24 hours after the initial laparotomy if possible (and no later than 48 hours). Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Media Use and Child Sleep: The Impact of Content, Timing, and Environment

PubMed Central

Liekweg, Kimberly; Christakis, Dimitri A.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Media use has been shown to negatively affect a child's sleep, especially in the context of evening use or with a television in the child's bedroom. However, little is known about how content choices and adult co-use affect this relationship. OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of media content, timing, and use behaviors on child sleep. METHODS: These data were collected in the baseline survey and media diary of a randomized controlled trial on media use in children aged 3 to 5 years. Sleep measures were derived from the Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire. Media diaries captured time, content title, and co-use of television, video-game, and computer usage; titles were coded for ratings, violence, scariness, and pacing. Nested linear regression models were built to examine the impact of timing, content, and co-use on the sleep problem score. RESULTS: On average, children consumed 72.9 minutes of media screen time daily, with 14.1 minutes occurring after 7:00 pm. Eighteen percent of parents reported at least 1 sleep problem; children with a bedroom television consumed more media and were more likely to have a sleep problem. In regression models, each additional hour of evening media use was associated with a significant increase in the sleep problem score (0.743 [95% confidence interval: 0.373–1.114]), as was daytime use with violent content (0.398 [95% confidence interval: 0.121–0.676]). There was a trend toward greater impact of daytime violent use in the context of a bedroom television (P = .098) and in low-income children (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: Violent content and evening media use were associated with increased sleep problems. However, no such effects were observed with nonviolent daytime media use. PMID:21708803

Media use and child sleep: the impact of content, timing, and environment.

PubMed

Garrison, Michelle M; Liekweg, Kimberly; Christakis, Dimitri A

2011-07-01

Media use has been shown to negatively affect a child's sleep, especially in the context of evening use or with a television in the child's bedroom. However, little is known about how content choices and adult co-use affect this relationship. To describe the impact of media content, timing, and use behaviors on child sleep. These data were collected in the baseline survey and media diary of a randomized controlled trial on media use in children aged 3 to 5 years. Sleep measures were derived from the Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire. Media diaries captured time, content title, and co-use of television, video-game, and computer usage; titles were coded for ratings, violence, scariness, and pacing. Nested linear regression models were built to examine the impact of timing, content, and co-use on the sleep problem score. On average, children consumed 72.9 minutes of media screen time daily, with 14.1 minutes occurring after 7:00 pm. Eighteen percent of parents reported at least 1 sleep problem; children with a bedroom television consumed more media and were more likely to have a sleep problem. In regression models, each additional hour of evening media use was associated with a significant increase in the sleep problem score (0.743 [95% confidence interval: 0.373-1.114]), as was daytime use with violent content (0.398 [95% confidence interval: 0.121-0.676]). There was a trend toward greater impact of daytime violent use in the context of a bedroom television (P=.098) and in low-income children (P=.07). Violent content and evening media use were associated with increased sleep problems. However, no such effects were observed with nonviolent daytime media use. Copyright © 2011 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis: implications for aetiology and early prevention

PubMed Central

Rudnicka, Alicja R; Kapetanakis, Venediktos V; Wathern, Andrea K; Gilmartin, Bernard; Whincup, Peter H; Cook, Derek G; Owen, Christopher G

2016-01-01

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1–18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention. PMID:26802174

The effect of age at first calving and calving interval on productive life and lifetime profit in korean holsteins.

PubMed

Do, Changhee; Wasana, Nidarshani; Cho, Kwanghyun; Choi, Yunho; Choi, Taejeong; Park, Byungho; Lee, Donghee

2013-11-01

This study was performed to estimate the effect of age at first calving and first two calving intervals on productive life and life time profit in Korean Holsteins. Reproduction data of Korean Holsteins born from 1998 to 2004 and lactation data from 276,573 cows with birth and last dry date that calved between 2000 and 2010 were used for the analysis. Lifetime profit increased with the days of life span. Regression of Life Span on Lifetime profit indicated that there was an increase of 3,800 Won (approximately $3.45) of lifetime profit per day increase in life span. This is evidence that care of each cow is necessary to improve net return and important for farms maintaining profitable cows. The estimates of heritability of age at first calving, first two calving intervals, days in milk for lifetime, lifespan, milk income and lifetime profit were 0.111, 0.088, 0.142, 0.140, 0.143, 0.123, and 0.102, respectively. The low heritabilities indicated that the productive life and economical traits include reproductive and productive characteristics. Age at first calving and interval between first and second calving had negative genetic correlation with lifetime profit (-0.080 and -0.265, respectively). Reducing age at first calving and first calving interval had a positive effect on lifetime profit. Lifetime profit increased to approximately 2,600,000 (2,363.6) from 800,000 Won ($727.3) when age at first calving decreased to (22.3 month) from (32.8 month). Results suggested that reproductive traits such as age at first calving and calving interval might affect various economical traits and consequently influenced productive life and profitability of cows. In conclusion, regard of the age at first calving must be taken with the optimum age at first calving for maximum lifetime profit being 22.5 to 23.5 months. Moreover, considering the negative genetic correlation of first calving interval with lifetime profit, it should be reduced against the present trend of increase.

The Effect of Age at First Calving and Calving Interval on Productive Life and Lifetime Profit in Korean Holsteins

PubMed Central

Do, Changhee; Wasana, Nidarshani; Cho, Kwanghyun; Choi, Yunho; Choi, Taejeong; Park, Byungho; Lee, Donghee

2013-01-01

This study was performed to estimate the effect of age at first calving and first two calving intervals on productive life and life time profit in Korean Holsteins. Reproduction data of Korean Holsteins born from 1998 to 2004 and lactation data from 276,573 cows with birth and last dry date that calved between 2000 and 2010 were used for the analysis. Lifetime profit increased with the days of life span. Regression of Life Span on Lifetime profit indicated that there was an increase of 3,800 Won (approximately $3.45) of lifetime profit per day increase in life span. This is evidence that care of each cow is necessary to improve net return and important for farms maintaining profitable cows. The estimates of heritability of age at first calving, first two calving intervals, days in milk for lifetime, lifespan, milk income and lifetime profit were 0.111, 0.088, 0.142, 0.140, 0.143, 0.123, and 0.102, respectively. The low heritabilities indicated that the productive life and economical traits include reproductive and productive characteristics. Age at first calving and interval between first and second calving had negative genetic correlation with lifetime profit (−0.080 and −0.265, respectively). Reducing age at first calving and first calving interval had a positive effect on lifetime profit. Lifetime profit increased to approximately 2,600,000 (2,363.6) from 800,000 Won ($727.3) when age at first calving decreased to (22.3 month) from (32.8 month). Results suggested that reproductive traits such as age at first calving and calving interval might affect various economical traits and consequently influenced productive life and profitability of cows. In conclusion, regard of the age at first calving must be taken with the optimum age at first calving for maximum lifetime profit being 22.5 to 23.5 months. Moreover, considering the negative genetic correlation of first calving interval with lifetime profit, it should be reduced against the present trend of increase. PMID:25049735

Measuring the EMS patient access time interval and the impact of responding to high-rise buildings.

PubMed

Morrison, Laurie J; Angelini, Mark P; Vermeulen, Marian J; Schwartz, Brian

2005-01-01

To measure the patient access time interval and characterize its contribution to the total emergency medical services (EMS) response time interval; to compare the patient access time intervals for patients located three or more floors above ground with those less than three floors above or below ground, and specifically in the apartment subgroup; and to identify barriers that significantly impede EMS access to patients in high-rise apartments. An observational study of all patients treated by an emergency medical technician paramedics (EMT-P) crew was conducted using a trained independent observer to collect time intervals and identify potential barriers to access. Of 118 observed calls, 25 (21%) originated from patients three or more floors above ground. The overall median and 90th percentile (95% confidence interval) patient access time intervals were 1.61 (1.27, 1.91) and 3.47 (3.08, 4.05) minutes, respectively. The median interval was 2.73 (2.22, 3.03) minutes among calls from patients located three or more stories above ground compared with 1.25 (1.07, 1.55) minutes among those at lower levels. The patient access time interval represented 23.5% of the total EMS response time interval among calls originating less than three floors above or below ground and 32.2% of those located three or more stories above ground. The most frequently encountered barriers to access included security code entry requirements, lack of directional signs, and inability to fit the stretcher into the elevator. The patient access time interval is significantly long and represents a substantial component of the total EMS response time interval, especially among ambulance calls originating three or more floors above ground. A number of barriers appear to contribute to delayed paramedic access.

Plio-Quaternary stress states in NE Iran: Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabanian, Esmaeil; Bellier, Olivier; Abbassi, Mohammad R.; Siame, Lionel; Farbod, Yassaman

2010-01-01

NE Iran, including the Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud deformation domains, comprises the northeastern boundary of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone. This study focuses on the evolution of the Plio-Quaternary tectonic regimes of northeast Iran. We present evidence for drastic temporal changes in the stress state by inversion of both geologically and seismically determined fault slip vectors. The inversions of fault kinematics data reveal distinct temporal changes in states of stress during the Plio-Quaternary (since ˜ 5 Ma). The paleostress state is characterized by a regional transpressional tectonic regime with a mean N140 ± 10°E trending horizontal maximum stress axis ( σ1). The youngest (modern) state of stress shows two distinct strike-slip and compressional tectonic regimes with a regional mean of N030 ± 15°E trending horizontal σ1. The change from the paleostress to modern stress states has occurred through an intermediate stress field characterized by a mean regional N trending σ1. The inversion analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms reveals a homogeneous, transpressional tectonic regime with a regional N023 ± 5°E trending σ1. The modern stress state, deduced from the youngest fault kinematics data, is in close agreement with the present-day stress state given by the inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms. According to our data and the deduced results, in northeast Iran, the Arabia-Eurasia convergence is taken up by strike-slip faulting along NE trending left-lateral and NNW trending right-lateral faults, as well as reverse to oblique-slip reverse faulting along NW trending faults. Such a structural assemblage is involved in a mechanically compatible and homogeneous modern stress field. This implies that no strain and/or stress partitioning or systematic block rotations have occurred in the Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud deformation domains. The Plio-Quaternary stress changes documented in this paper call into question the extrapolation of the present-day seismic and GPS-derived deformation rates over geological time intervals encompassing tens of millions of years.

Modulation of human time processing by subthalamic deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Wojtecki, Lars; Elben, Saskia; Timmermann, Lars; Reck, Christiane; Maarouf, Mohammad; Jörgens, Silke; Ploner, Markus; Südmeyer, Martin; Groiss, Stefan Jun; Sturm, Volker; Niedeggen, Michael; Schnitzler, Alfons

2011-01-01

Timing in the range of seconds referred to as interval timing is crucial for cognitive operations and conscious time processing. According to recent models of interval timing basal ganglia (BG) oscillatory loops are involved in time interval recognition. Parkinsońs disease (PD) is a typical disease of the basal ganglia that shows distortions in interval timing. Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a powerful treatment of PD which modulates motor and cognitive functions depending on stimulation frequency by affecting subcortical-cortical oscillatory loops. Thus, for the understanding of BG-involvement in interval timing it is of interest whether STN-DBS can modulate timing in a frequency dependent manner by interference with oscillatory time recognition processes. We examined production and reproduction of 5 and 15 second intervals and millisecond timing in a double blind, randomised, within-subject repeated-measures design of 12 PD-patients applying no, 10-Hz- and ≥ 130-Hz-STN-DBS compared to healthy controls. We found under(re-)production of the 15-second interval and a significant enhancement of this under(re-)production by 10-Hz-stimulation compared to no stimulation, ≥ 130-Hz-STN-DBS and controls. Milliseconds timing was not affected. We provide first evidence for a frequency-specific modulatory effect of STN-DBS on interval timing. Our results corroborate the involvement of BG in general and of the STN in particular in the cognitive representation of time intervals in the range of multiple seconds.

Modulation of Human Time Processing by Subthalamic Deep Brain Stimulation

PubMed Central

Timmermann, Lars; Reck, Christiane; Maarouf, Mohammad; Jörgens, Silke; Ploner, Markus; Südmeyer, Martin; Groiss, Stefan Jun; Sturm, Volker; Niedeggen, Michael; Schnitzler, Alfons

2011-01-01

Timing in the range of seconds referred to as interval timing is crucial for cognitive operations and conscious time processing. According to recent models of interval timing basal ganglia (BG) oscillatory loops are involved in time interval recognition. Parkinsońs disease (PD) is a typical disease of the basal ganglia that shows distortions in interval timing. Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a powerful treatment of PD which modulates motor and cognitive functions depending on stimulation frequency by affecting subcortical-cortical oscillatory loops. Thus, for the understanding of BG-involvement in interval timing it is of interest whether STN-DBS can modulate timing in a frequency dependent manner by interference with oscillatory time recognition processes. We examined production and reproduction of 5 and 15 second intervals and millisecond timing in a double blind, randomised, within-subject repeated-measures design of 12 PD-patients applying no, 10-Hz- and ≥130-Hz-STN-DBS compared to healthy controls. We found under(re-)production of the 15-second interval and a significant enhancement of this under(re-)production by 10-Hz-stimulation compared to no stimulation, ≥130-Hz-STN-DBS and controls. Milliseconds timing was not affected. We provide first evidence for a frequency-specific modulatory effect of STN-DBS on interval timing. Our results corroborate the involvement of BG in general and of the STN in particular in the cognitive representation of time intervals in the range of multiple seconds. PMID:21931767

Fault-sourced alluvial fans and their interaction with axial fluvial drainage: An example from the Plio-Pleistocene Upper Valdarno Basin (Tuscany, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fidolini, Francesco; Ghinassi, Massimiliano; Aldinucci, Mauro; Billi, Paolo; Boaga, Jacopo; Deiana, Rita; Brivio, Lara

2013-05-01

The present study deals with the fault-sourced, alluvial-fan deposits of the Plio-Pleistocene Upper Valdarno Basin (Northern Apennines, Italy). Different phases of alluvial fan aggradation, progradation and backstep are discussed as possible effects of the interaction among fault-generated accommodation space, sediment supply and discharge variations affecting the axial fluvial drainage. The Upper Valdarno Basin, located about 35 km SE of Florence, is filled with 550 m palustrine, lacustrine and alluvial deposits forming four main unconformity-bounded units (i.e. synthems). The study alluvial-fan deposits belong to the two uppermost synthems (Montevarchi and Torrente Ciuffenna synthems) and are Early to Middle Pleistocene in age. These deposits are sourced from the fault-bounded, NE margin of the basin and interfinger with axial fluvial deposits. Alluvial fan deposits of the Montevarchi Synthem consist of three main intervals: i) a lower interval, which lacks any evidence of a depositional trend and testify balance between the subsidence rate (i.e. fault activity) and the amount of sediment provided from the margin; ii) a coarsening-upward middle interval, pointing to a decrease in subsidence rate associated with an augment in sediment supply; iii) a fining-upward, upper interval (locally preserved), documenting a phase of tectonic quiescence associated with a progressive re-equilibration of the tectonically-induced morphological profile. The basin-scale unconformity, which separates the Montevarchi and Torrente Ciuffenna synthems was due to the entrance of the Arno River into the basin as consequence of a piracy. This event caused a dramatic increase in water discharge of the axial fluvial system, and its consequent embanking. Such an erosional surface started to develop in the axial areas, and propagated along the main tributaries, triggering erosion of the alluvial fan deposits. Alluvial-fan deposits of the Torrente Ciuffenna Synthem accumulated above the unconformity during a phase of tectonic quiescence, and show a fining-upward depositional trend. This trend was generated by a progressive decrease in sediment supply stemming out from upstream migration of the knickpoints developed during the embanking of the axial system.

Circulating Biomarkers of Dairy Fat and Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus Among Men and Women in the United States in Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Shi, Peilin; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Campos, Hannia; Orav, E John; Hu, Frank B; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-04-26

In prospective studies, the relationship of self-reported consumption of dairy foods with risk of diabetes mellitus is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed dairy fat, using circulating biomarkers, and incident diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that circulating fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat, 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, are associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Among 3333 adults aged 30 to 75 years and free of prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, total plasma and erythrocyte fatty acids were measured in blood collected in 1989 to 1990 (Nurses' Health Study) and 1993 to 1994 (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study). Incident diabetes mellitus through 2010 was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire based on symptoms, diagnostic tests, and medications. Risk was assessed by using Cox proportional hazards, with cohort findings combined by meta-analysis. During mean±standard deviation follow-up of 15.2±5.6 years, 277 new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed. In pooled multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, metabolic risk factors, lifestyle, diet, and other circulating fatty acids, individuals with higher plasma 15:0 had a 44% lower risk of diabetes mellitus (quartiles 4 versus 1, hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86; P-trend=0.01); higher plasma 17:0, 43% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.83; P-trend=0.01); and higher t-16:1n-7, 52% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70; P-trend <0.001). Findings were similar for erythrocyte 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, although with broader confidence intervals that only achieved statistical significance for 17:0. In 2 prospective cohorts, higher plasma dairy fatty acid concentrations were associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Results were similar for erythrocyte 17:0. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the potential health effects of dairy fat, and the dietary and metabolic determinants of these fatty acids. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Impact of new-generation agents on antiepileptic drug prescribing patterns in a residential ICF-MR facility.

PubMed

Smith, Stacey Allison; McKee, Jerry R

2004-06-01

Describe the impact of newer antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) on prescribing practices in a large, residential intermediate-care facility for the mentally retarded (ICF-MR), with onsite clinical pharmacist support services, over a 15-year period. All residents at the facility receiving AEDs for management of seizure disorder were included in this retrospective assessment. Number and type of AEDs used per individual were recorded and analyzed over the 15-year interval. Current prescribing practices were evaluated regarding rational polytherapy prescribing trends. 400-bed residential ICF-MR for the severe to profoundly mentally retarded. All individuals residing at the ICF-MR facility receiving AED therapy for a seizure disorder. Residents were primarily in the severe to profound range of developmental disability, with multiple medical comorbidities. Clinical pharmacists actively participate in all treatment teams and monthly neurology clinic to promote and encourage rational pharmacotherapy. Prescribing trends related to AED therapy were followed over a 15-year period. Comparisons were made regarding monotherapy and polytherapy at multiple-year intervals, with specific emphasis on how the newer generation AEDs have affected use of older medications. Overall trend from 1988 suggests more monotherapy and less use of barbiturates. Introduction of a new generation of AEDs has not affected the overall trend toward one- or two-drug regimens over the period in review. The relative stability of the number of AEDs per resident during the introduction of a new generation of AEDs suggests that as new drugs are added, ineffective or problem-prone drugs are discontinued.

Cost trends among commercially insured and Medicare Advantage-insured patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 2006 through 2009

PubMed Central

Dalal, Anand A; Liu, Fang; Riedel, Aylin A

2011-01-01

Background Few estimates of health care costs related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are available regarding commercially insured patients in the United States. The aims of this retrospective observational analysis of administrative data were to describe and compare health care resource use and costs related to COPD in the United States for patients with commercial insurance or Medicare Advantage with Part D benefits, and to assess cost trends over time. Methods Patient-level and visit-level health care costs in the calendar years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 were assessed for patients with evidence of COPD. Generalized linear models adjusting for sex, age category, and geographic region were used to investigate cost trends over time for patients with Medicare or commercial insurance. Results Medical costs, which ranged from an annual mean of US$2382 (Medicare 2007) to US$3339 (commercial 2009) per patient, comprised the majority of total costs in all years for patients with either type of insurance. COPD-related costs were less for Medicare than commercial cohorts. In the multivariate analysis, total costs increased by approximately 6% per year for commercial insurance patients (cost ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.07; P < 0.001) and 5% per year for Medicare patients (cost ratio 1.05; 95% CI 1.03–1.07; P < 0.001). Costs for outpatient and emergency department visits increased significantly over time in both populations. Standard admission costs increased significantly for Medicare patients (cost ratio 1.03; 95% CI 1.00–1.05; P = 0.03), but not commercial patients, and costs for intensive care unit visits remained stable for both populations. Conclusion COPD imposed a substantial economic burden on patients and the health care system, with costs increasing significantly in both the Medicare and commercial populations. PMID:22069365

The impact of harm reduction programs and police interventions on the number of syringes collected from public spaces. A time series analysis in Barcelona, 2004-2014.

PubMed

Espelt, A; Villalbí, J R; Bosque-Prous, M; Parés-Badell, O; Mari-Dell'Olmo, M; Brugal, M T

2017-12-01

To estimate the effect of opening two services for people who use drugs and three police interventions on the number of discarded syringes collected from public spaces in Barcelona between 2004 and 2014. We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis of the monthly number of syringes collected from public spaces during this period. The dependent variable was the number of syringes collected per month. The main independent variables were month and five dummy variables (the opening of two facilities with safe consumption rooms, and three police interventions). To examine which interventions affected the number of syringes collected, we performed an interrupted time-series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model, obtaining relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The number of syringes collected per month in Barcelona decreased from 13,800 in 2004 to 1655 in 2014 after several interventions. For example, following the closure of an open drug scene in District A of the city, we observed a decreasing trend in the number of syringes collected [RR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.82-0.95)], but an increasing trend in the remaining districts [RR=1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99-1.18) for districts B and C, respectively]. Following the opening of a harm reduction facility in District C, we observed an initial increase in the number collected in this district [RR=2.72 (95% CI: 1.57-4.71)] and stabilization of the trend thereafter [RR=0.97 (95% CI: 0.91-1.03)]. The overall number of discarded syringes collected from public spaces has decreased consistently in parallel with a combination of police interventions and the opening of harm reduction facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence of Appendicitis over Time: A Comparative Analysis of an Administrative Healthcare Database and a Pathology-Proven Appendicitis Registry

PubMed Central

Clement, Fiona; Zimmer, Scott; Dixon, Elijah; Ball, Chad G.; Heitman, Steven J.; Swain, Mark; Ghosh, Subrata

2016-01-01

Importance At the turn of the 21st century, studies evaluating the change in incidence of appendicitis over time have reported inconsistent findings. Objectives We compared the differences in the incidence of appendicitis derived from a pathology registry versus an administrative database in order to validate coding in administrative databases and establish temporal trends in the incidence of appendicitis. Design We conducted a population-based comparative cohort study to identify all individuals with appendicitis from 2000 to2008. Setting & Participants Two population-based data sources were used to identify cases of appendicitis: 1) a pathology registry (n = 8,822); and 2) a hospital discharge abstract database (n = 10,453). Intervention & Main Outcome The administrative database was compared to the pathology registry for the following a priori analyses: 1) to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of administrative codes; 2) to compare the annual incidence of appendicitis; and 3) to assess differences in temporal trends. Temporal trends were assessed using a generalized linear model that assumed a Poisson distribution and reported as an annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were stratified by perforated and non-perforated appendicitis. Results The administrative database (PPV = 83.0%) overestimated the incidence of appendicitis (100.3 per 100,000) when compared to the pathology registry (84.2 per 100,000). Codes for perforated appendicitis were not reliable (PPV = 52.4%) leading to overestimation in the incidence of perforated appendicitis in the administrative database (34.8 per 100,000) as compared to the pathology registry (19.4 per 100,000). The incidence of appendicitis significantly increased over time in both the administrative database (APC = 2.1%; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.8) and pathology registry (APC = 4.1; 95% CI: 3.1, 5.0). Conclusion & Relevance The administrative database overestimated the incidence of appendicitis, particularly among perforated appendicitis. Therefore, studies utilizing administrative data to analyze perforated appendicitis should be interpreted cautiously. PMID:27820826

Are There Multiple Populations of Fast Radio Bursts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palaniswamy, Divya; Li, Ye; Zhang, Bing

2018-02-01

The repeating FRB 121102 (the “repeater”) shows repetitive bursting activities and was localized in a host galaxy at z = 0.193. On the other hand, despite dozens of hours of telescope time spent on follow-up observations, no other fast radio bursts (FRBs) have been observed to repeat. Yet, it has been speculated that the repeater is the prototype of FRBs, and that other FRBs should show similar repeating patterns. Using the published data, we compare the repeater with other FRBs in the observed time interval (Δt)–flux ratio (S i /S i+1) plane. We find that whereas other FRBs occupy the upper (large S i /S i+1) and right (large Δt) regions of the plane due to the non-detections of other bursts, some of the repeater bursts fall into the lower left region of the plot (short interval and small flux ratio) excluded by the non-detection data of other FRBs. The trend also exists even if one only selects those bursts detectable by the Parkes radio telescope. If other FRBs were similar to the repeater, our simulations suggest that the probability that none of them have been detected to repeat with the current searches would be ∼(10‑4–10‑3). We suggest that the repeater is not representative of the entire FRB population, and that there is strong evidence of more than one population of FRBs.

Increasing availability of illicit and prescription opioids among people who inject drugs in a Canadian setting, 2010-2014.

PubMed

Ho, Joel; DeBeck, Kora; Milloy, M-J; Dong, Huiru; Wood, Evan; Kerr, Thomas; Hayashi, Kanna

2018-01-01

Nonmedical use of prescription opioid and illicit opioid has been increasing at an alarming rate in North America over the past decade. We sought to examine the temporal trends and correlates of the availability of illicit and prescription opioids among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Vancouver, Canada. Data were derived from three prospective cohort studies of PWID in Vancouver between 2010 and 2014. In semiannual interviews, participants reported the availability of five sets of illicit and prescription opioids: (1) heroin; (2) Percocet (oxycodone/acetaminophen), Vicodin (hydrocodone/acetaminophen), or Demerol (meperidine); (3) Dilaudid (hydromorphone); (4) Morphine; (5) oxycontin/OxyNEO (controlled-release oxycodone). We defined perceived availability as immediate (e.g., available within 10 minutes) versus no availability/available after 10 minutes. The trend and correlation of immediate availability were identified by multivariable generalized estimating equations logistic regression. Among 1584 participants, of which 564 (35.6%) were female, the immediate availability of all illicit and prescribed opioids (except for oxycontin/OxyNEO) increased over time, independent of potential confounders. The Adjusted Odds Ratios of immediate availability associated with every calendar year increase were between 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.05-1.12) (morphine and Dilaudid) and 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.17) (Percocet/Vicodin/Demerol) (all p-values <0.05). The availability of most prescription opioids had continued to increase in recent years among our sample of PWID in Vancouver. Concurrent increases in the availability of heroin were also observed, raising concerns regarding combination of both illicit and prescription opioid use among PWID that could potentially increase the risk of overdose.

Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance

PubMed Central

Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bao, Le

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence. Design Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference. Methods We introduce a variance inflation parameter σinfl2 that accounts for the uncertainty of nonsampling errors in ANC-SS prevalence. It is additive to the sampling error variance. Three approaches are tested for estimating σinfl2 using ANC-SS and household survey data from 40 subnational regions in nine countries in sub-Saharan, as defined in UNAIDS 2016 estimates. Methods were compared using in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of ANC-SS data, fit to household survey prevalence data, and the computational implications. Results Introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2 increased the error variance around ANC-SS prevalence observations by a median of 2.7 times (interquartile range 1.9–3.8). Using only sampling error in ANC-SS prevalence ( σinfl2=0), coverage of 95% prediction intervals was 69% in out-of-sample prediction tests. This increased to 90% after introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2. The revised probabilistic model improved model fit to household survey prevalence and increased epidemic uncertainty intervals most during the early epidemic period before 2005. Estimating σinfl2 did not increase the computational cost of model fitting. Conclusions: We recommend estimating nonsampling error in ANC-SS as an additional parameter in Bayesian inference using the Estimation and Projection Package model. This approach may prove useful for incorporating other data sources such as routine prevalence from Prevention of mother-to-child transmission testing into future epidemic estimates. PMID:28296801

Dietary trace element intake and liver cancer risk: Results from two population-based cohorts in China.

PubMed

Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Li, Hong-Lan; Zheng, Wei; Gao, Jing; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Gong; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xiang, Yong-Bing

2017-03-01

Dietary factors have been hypothesized to affect the risk of liver cancer via various mechanisms, but the influence has been not well studied and the evidence is conflicting. We investigated associations of dietary trace element intake, assessed through a validated food frequency questionnaire, with risk of liver cancer in two prospective cohort studies of 132,765 women (1997-2013) and men (2002-2013) in Shanghai, China. The associations were first evaluated in cohort studies and further assessed in a case-control study nested within these cohorts adjusting for hepatitis B virus infection. For cohort analyses, Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. For nested case-control analyses, conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. After a median follow-up time of 15.2 years for the Shanghai Women's Health Study and 9.3 years for the Shanghai Men's Health Study, 192 women and 344 men developed liver cancer. Dietary intake of manganese was inversely associated with liver cancer risk (highest vs. lowest quintile, HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.35-0.73; p trend  = 0.001). Further adjustment for hepatitis B virus infection in the nested case-control study yielded a similar result (highest vs. lowest quintile, OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21-0.69; p trend  < 0.001). No significant association was found between dietary intake of selenium, iron, zinc, copper and liver cancer risk. The results suggest that higher intake of manganese may be associated with a lower risk of liver cancer in China. © 2016 UICC.

Variation in Hospital Use and Outcomes Associated With Pulmonary Artery Catheterization in Heart Failure in the United States.

PubMed

Khera, Rohan; Pandey, Ambarish; Kumar, Nilay; Singh, Rajeev; Bano, Shah; Golwala, Harsh; Kumbhani, Dharam J; Girotra, Saket; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-11-01

There has been an increase in the use of pulmonary artery (PA) catheters in heart failure (HF) in the United States in recent years. However, patterns of hospital use and trends in patient outcomes are not known. In the National Inpatient Sample 2001 to 2012, using International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes, we identified 11 888 525 adult (≥18 years) HF hospitalizations nationally, of which an estimated 75 209 (SE 0.6%) received a PA catheter. In 2001, the number of hospitals with ≥1 PA catheterization was 1753, decreasing to 1183 in 2011. The mean PA catheter use per hospital trended from 4.9 per year in 2001 (limits 1-133) to 3.8 per year in 2007 (limits 1-46), but increased to 5.5 per year in 2011 (limits 1-70). During 2001 to 2006, PA catheterization declined across hospitals; however, in 2007 to 2012, there was a disproportionate increase at hospitals with large bedsize, teaching programs, and advanced HF capabilities. The overall in-hospital mortality with PA catheter use was higher than without PA catheter use (13.1% versus 3.4%; P<0.0001); however, in propensity-matched analysis, differences in mortality between these groups have attenuated over time-risk-adjusted odds ratio for mortality for PA catheterization, 1.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.60-1.74) in 2001 to 2003 down to 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.12) in 2010 to 2012. There is substantial hospital-level variability in PA catheterization in HF along with increasing volume at fewer hospitals over-represented by large, academic hospitals with advanced HF capabilities. This is accompanied by a decline in excess mortality associated with PA catheterization. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 DNA load in relation to coexistence of other types, particularly those in the same species.

PubMed

Xi, Long Fu; Edelstein, Zoe R; Meyers, Craig; Ho, Jesse; Cherne, Stephen L; Schiffman, Mark

2009-09-01

Infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types is common. However, it is unknown whether viral DNA load is related to the coexistence of other types. Study subjects were 802 and 303 women who were positive for HPV16 and HPV18, respectively, at enrollment into the Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance and Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion Triage Study. HPV16 and HPV18 E7 copies per nanogram of cellular DNA in cervical swab samples were measured by real-time PCR in triplicate. Concurrent coinfection was common in this population of women with minor cervical lesions; multiple HPV types were detected in 573 (71.4%) of 802 HPV16-positive women and 227 (74.9%) of 303 HPV18-positive women. The adjusted odds ratio associating coinfection with per 1 log unit increase in HPV16 DNA load was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.89); it was 0.64 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.79) for a similar analysis of HPV18 DNA load. Women with, compared with without, coinfection of A9 species types possessed a significantly lower HPV16 DNA load (P < 0.001), whereas women with, compared with without, coinfection of A7 species types possessed a significantly lower HPV18 DNA load (P = 0.001). A trend of decrease in HPV16 DNA load with increasing number of the coexisting non-HPV16 A9 species types was statistically significant (P(trend) = 0.001). Coinfection with other types was associated with lower HPV16 and HPV18 DNA load. The extent of reduction was correlated to phylogenetic distance of the coexisting types to HPV16 and HPV18, respectively.

Analysis of rs8067378 Polymorphism in the Risk of Uterine Cervical Cancer from a Polish Population and its Impact on Gasdermin B Expression.

PubMed

Lutkowska, Anna; Roszak, Andrzej; Lianeri, Margarita; Sowińska, Anna; Sotiri, Emianka; Jagodziński, Pawel P

2017-04-01

We studied the role of the NC_000017.10:g.38051348A>G (rs8067378) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) located 9.5 kb downstream of gasdermin B (GSDMB), in the development and progression of cervical squamous cell carcinomas (SCC). Using high-resolution melting curve analysis, we genotyped this SNP in patients with cervical SCC (n = 486) and controls (n = 511) from the Polish Caucasian population. Logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for the effect of confounders such as age, parity, oral contraceptive use, tobacco smoking, and menopausal status. The effect of this SNP on the expression of GSDMB was studied by reverse transcription and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis of GSDMB transcript levels in SCC tissues. For all patients with SCC, the p trend value calculated for rs8067378 was statistically significant (p trend  = 0.0019). The adjusted odds ratio for the G/G vs. A/A genotype was 1.304 (95% confidence interval 1.080-1.574, p = 0.0057) and the adjusted odds ratio for the G/A + G/G vs. A/A genotype was 1.444 (95% confidence interval 1.064-1.959, p = 0.0181). We also found a significant association of the rs8067378 SNP with tumor stages III, IV, and grade of differentiation G3, and with parity, oral contraceptive use, smoking, and women of postmenopausal age. We found increased GSDMB1 isoform transcripts in the cancerous and non-cancerous tissues from carriers of the G allele vs. carriers of the A/A genotype. The rs8067378 SNP variants may increase the expression of GSDMB and the risk of the development and progression of cervical SCC.

Intra-articular hyaluronic acid compared to intra-articular triamcinolone hexacetonide in inflammatory knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Jones, A C; Pattrick, M; Doherty, S; Doherty, M

1995-12-01

The aim of this study was to determine the comparative efficacy and safety of intra-articular (i/a) triamcinolone. hexacetonide (TH) and i/a hyaluronic acid (HA) in inflammatory knee osteoarthritis. A randomized double-blind comparative trail was carried out in a rheumatology outpatient department. There were 63 patients (24 male, 39 female, mean age 70.5 years) with bilateral symptomatic knee osteoarthritis with effusion. Each was given five HA injections at weekly intervals; or 20 mg TH followed by four placebo (saline) injections. Patients were examined weekly during the treatment period and then at monthly intervals for a further 6 months. Assessment included recording of: visual analog scores (VAS) for pain; duration of stiffness; range of movement; joint effusion; local heat; synovial thickening; joint-line and periarticular tenderness. The principal outcome measure was pain on a self-selected activity assessed by Vas. The two groups were comparable at entry and no significant differences between the groups developed at any time during the treatment period. However, there was a high drop-out rate and intention to treat analysis failed to demonstrate statistically significant differences between the groups. In patients remaining in the study, significantly less pain was experienced by the HA group during the 6 month follow-up period. Other parameters showed a similar trend in favor of experienced by the HA group during the 6 month follow-up period. Other parameters showed a similar trend in favor of HA. We could not, however, demonstrate significant differences between the placebo and active treatments. HA may therefore be a useful additional therapy for symptomatic knee osteoarthritis and may have a long duration of action.

Structure, stratigraphy, and hydrocarbons offshore southern Kalimantan, Indonesia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishop, W.F.

1980-01-01

Offshore southern Kalimantan (Borneo), Indonesia, the Sunda Shelf is bounded on the south by the east-west-trending Java-Madura foreland basin and on the north by outcrops of the granitic core of Kalimantan. Major northeast-southwest-trending faults created a basin and ridge province which controlled sedimentation at least until early Miocene time. Just above the unconformity, the oldest pre-CD Limestone clastic strata are fluviatile and lacustrine, the remainder consisting largely of shallow-marine, calcareous shale with interbeds of fine-grained, quartzose sandstone. A flood of terrigenous detritus - Kudjung unit 3 - resulted from post-CD Limestone uplift, and is more widely distributed. Unit 3 consistsmore » largely of fluviatile sandstone interbedded with shale and mudstone, grading upward to marine clastics with a few thin limestones near the top. The resulting Kudjing unit 2 is largely a shallow-basinal deposit, comprising thin, micritic limestones interbedded with calcareous shale and mudstone. Infilling of the basins was nearly complete by the end of Kudjing unit 1 deposition. Eastern equivalents of Kudjing units 1 and 2 are known as the Berai limestone interval (comprising bank, reefal, basinal, and open-marine limestones, and marl). Of the three oil fields in the area, two are shut in, but one has produced nearly 100 million bbl. Gas shows were recorded in most wells of the area, but the maximum flow was 1.8 MMcf methane/day, although larger flows with high percentages of carbon dioxide and nitrogen were reported. Fine-grained clastic strata of unit 3 are continuous with those farther south, where geochemical data indicate good source and hydrocarbon-generating potential. Sandstones with reservoir capability are present in the clastic intervals, and several carbonate facies have sporadically developed porosity. A variety of structural and stratigraphic traps is present. 20 figures, 1 table.« less

Sea-surface temperatures for the last 7200 years from the eastern Sunda Shelf, South China Sea: Climatic inferences from planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodson, Anna Lee; Leorri, Eduardo; Culver, Stephen J.; Mallinson, David J.; Parham, Peter R.; Thunell, Robert C.; Vijayan, V. R.; Curtis, Scott

2017-06-01

To test whether low latitude shallow shelf deposits can provide high resolution paleoclimatic records, we utilized two cores from the Holocene sedimentary fill of incised valleys on the Sunda Shelf off Sarawak, Malaysia. We developed a new sea-surface temperature (SST) record based on planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca for the last 7200 years. This record reveals several significant shifts between warmer and colder conditions. Temperatures averaged 27.5 °C ca. 7200 cal. years BP, then climbed to 28.2 °C from 6500 to 5500 cal. years BP. At 5500-4500 cal. years BP we identified the coldest period (26.8 °C) of the analyzed period. For the last 4500 years SST again averaged 27.5 °C but the profile is rather variable. The last ca. 1000 years recorded the warmest SST averaging 28.5 °C. We record, for the first time in this region, a cool interval, ca. 1000 years in duration, centered on 5000 cal years BP concomitant with a wet period recorded in Borneo. The record also reflects a warm interval from ca. 1000 to 500 cal years BP that may represent the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Variations in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and solar activity are considered as potential drivers of SST trends. However, hydrology changes related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, shifts of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone are more likely to have impacted our SST temporal trend. Our findings indicate that climatic patterns in the region might be in phase with ENSO and out of phase with the EAM.

Comparison of two neonatal indomethacin protocols: efficacy and outcome for patent ductus arteriosus closure.

PubMed

Rosito, G; Sum, K; Chorne, N

2010-10-01

Indomethacin, a non-selective inhibitor of prostaglandin synthesis, is the gold standard treatment for patent ductus arteriosus (PDA). Indomethacin has been shown to permanently close the ductus and when given prophylactically, it reduces the incidence of PDA (1, 2). This study compares PDA closure and surgical ligation rates between patients using two different indomethacin administration protocols. This is a retrospective comparison analysis of 72 neonates, who received one of two indomethacin administration protocols. Our previous protocol suggested an initial dose of 0·2 mg/kg followed by two 0·1 mg/kg, with doses infused over 4 h and a 24-h dosing interval. A new potentially more useful protocol using the same mg/kg dose regimen but with doses infused over 30 min and a 12-h dosing interval, was evaluated. Each neonate was allowed three courses of treatment before surgical ligation was performed for persistent PDA. There were no statistically significant differences between the two protocol groups when comparing percentages of neonates with gestational age≤28 weeks, birth weight≤1000 g, male gender or receiving indomethacin for the indication of PDA prophylaxis vs. treatment. There was a trend towards a higher PDA closure rate and subsequently a lower PDA ligation rate in the new protocol when compared with the previous protocol. In this small population of premature neonates, there was a trend, but no significant difference, towards increasing PDA closure and lower surgical ligation rates in neonates given indomethacin with more frequent dosing and shorter infusion time. A well-powered randomized controlled trial is now needed. Copyright © 2010 The Authors. JCPT © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Reproductive performance of Norwegian cattle from 1985 to 2005: trends and seasonality

PubMed Central

Refsdal, Arne Ola

2007-01-01

Declining reproductive performance is a serious breeding concern in many countries. To reveal the situation in Norwegian cattle, trends in reproductive performance were studied using insemination reports from 1985 to 2005 and data based on herd recording files from 1989 to 2005. The total number of first services was 469.765 in 1985 declining to 335.712 in 2005. The number of recorded herds and animals declined from 21.588 to 14.718 and 360.289 to 309.452 from 1989 to 2005, respectively. Sixty days non-return rate after single inseminations (NR60) increased from 68.1 in 1985 to 72.7% in 2005 (p < 0.001) and the number of services per inseminated animal (NIA) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 (p < 0.001) from 1985 to 2005. However, return rates 0–3 days post insemination (RR0-3) increased from 6 to 12% in the same period (p < 0.001). NR60 was higher and the RR0-3 was lower in the summer season compared to the winter season during the whole period. A fertility index (FS), has been calculated from the herd recording files each year from 1989 to 2005. The average FS-index did not show a significant trend and the calving interval was also fairly constant between 12.4 and 12.6 months during this period. The average interval from calving to first and last insemination, respectively, increased from a low of 79 and 102 days in 1990 to a high of 86 and 108 days in 2005. Both intervals were consistently longer for cows in first lactation than for cows in later lactations. The percentage of inseminated animals reported culled because of poor fertility decreased from 6.0% in 1989 to 4.6% in 1996 and thereafter again increased to 6% in 2005. In conclusion, most fertility measures, mainly comprising the Norwegian Red (NRF) breed, show a relatively high level of reproductive performance with a positive or a relatively constant trend during the last two decades. PMID:17295930

Meat intake and reproductive parameters among young men

PubMed Central

Afeiche, Myriam C; Williams, Paige L; Gaskins, Audrey J; Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Swan, Shanna H

2014-01-01

Background In the United States, anabolic sex steroids are administered to cattle for growth promotion. There is concern regarding the reproductive consequences of this practice for men who eat beef. We investigated whether meat consumption was associated with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormone levels in young men. Methods Semen samples were obtained from 189 men aged 18-22 years. Diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. We used linear regression to analyze the cross-sectional associations of meat intake with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormones, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results There was an inverse relation between processed red meat intake and total sperm count. The adjusted relative differences in total sperm counts for men in increasing quartiles of processed meat intake were 0 (ref), −3 (95% confidence interval = −67 to 37), −14 (−82 to 28), and −78 (−202 to −5) million (test for trend, P = 0.01). This association was strongest among men with abstinence time less than 2 days and was driven by a strong inverse relation between processed red meat intake and ejaculate volume (test for trend, P =0.003). Conclusions In our population of young men, processed meat intake was associated with lower total sperm count. We cannot distinguish whether this association is due to residual confounding by abstinence time or represents a true biological effect. PMID:24681577

Prevalence and Determinants of Metabolic Health in Subjects with Obesity in Chinese Population.

PubMed

Zheng, Ruizhi; Yang, Min; Bao, Yuqian; Li, Hong; Shan, Zhongyan; Zhang, Bo; Liu, Juan; Lv, Qinguo; Wu, Ou; Zhu, Yimin; Lai, Maode

2015-10-28

The study was to investigate the prevalence of metabolic health in subjects with obesity in the Chinese population and to identify the determinants related to metabolic abnormality in obese individuals. 5013 subjects were recruited from seven provincial capitals in China. The obesity and metabolic status were classified based on body mass index (BMI) and the number of abnormalities in common components of metabolic syndrome. 27.9% of individuals with obesity were metabolically healthy. The prevalence of the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype was significantly decreased with age in women (p trend < 0.001), but not significantly in men (p trend = 0.349). Central obesity (odds ratio [OR] = 4.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.93-8.59), longer sedentary time (OR = 1.97, 95%CI = 1.27-3.06), and with a family history of obesity related diseases (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia) (OR = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.26-2.71) were significantly associated with having metabolic abnormality in obese individuals. Higher levels of physical activity and more fruit/vegetable intake had decreased ORs of 0.67 (95%CI = 0.45-0.98) and 0.44 (95%CI = 0.28-0.70), respectively. 27.9% of obese participants are in metabolic health. Central obesity, physical activity, sedentary time, fruits/vegetables intake and family history of diseases are the determinants associated with metabolic status in obesity.

Early-middle Eocene transition in calcareous nannofossil assemblages at IODP Site U1410 (Southeast Newfoundland Ridge, NW Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappelli, Carlotta; Agnini, Claudia; Yamamoto, Yuhji

2017-04-01

The early-middle Eocene interval documents the shift from the warmest greenhouse conditions occurred during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, 52-50 Ma) to the beginning of the cooling phase which led to the Oligocene icehouse regime. This important transition is well expressed as a reversal in the global oxygen and carbonate isotope trends (Zachos et al., 2001). Moreover, this interval was a time of remarkable transformation in the marine biosphere. Communities of calcareous nannoplankton, marine calcifying algae at the base of the oceans food chain, experienced transient and permanent profound changes. Calcareous nannofossil are regarded as remarkable tools both in biostratigraphy and paleoecology, with several taxa that show different responses to changes in physical parameters of surface waters. Here, we aim to document calcareous nannoplankton assemblage changes across the early-middle Eocene transition, in order to upset the biostratigraphic framework and to increase comprehension of how phytoplankton communities responded to paleoenvironmental changes at that time. The sedimentary successions recovered at IODP Site U1410 (Exp. 342; 41˚ 19.6987'N; 49˚ 10.1995'W, Norris et al., 2012) on the Southeast Newfoundland Ridge (NW Atlantic) offer an expanded record of the early-middle Eocene interval that is marked by an increase in accumulation rate related to sedimentation of clay-rich nannofossil oozes. Quantitative analysis of calcareous nannofossil assemblages was conducted, encompassing calcareous nannofossil Zones NP12 -NP15 or CNE4-CNE10 (Martini, 1971; Agnini et al., 2014). The study interval records the appearance and proliferation of Noelaerhabdaceae family (i.e, Reticulofenestra/Dictyococcites group), which can be considered one of the most significant shifts in the assemblage structure of the Paleogene. This change was probably favored by modifications in surface water chemistry. The middle Eocene clay-rich sediments contain well preserved nannofossils, making this Site suitable for a comprehensive taxonomic revision of Nannotetrina and Chiasmolithus. Biohorizons related to species belonging to these two genera are used to mark middle Eocene biozone boundary, a better characterization of their taxonomy would thus improve their reliability as biostratigraphic tools. Furthermore, during the early middle Eocene a new evolutionary lineage, which includes S. kempii - S. perpendicularis- S. furcatholitoides morph. A - S. cuniculus - S. furcatholitoides morph. B occurred among sphenoliths. This plexus is characterized by progressive morphological changes which, if correctly identify, will allow for a very detailed subdivision of this interval. Even more interestingly, we would assess if there is any relationship between this evolutionary trend and the surrounding abiotic conditions. Agnini, C., Fornaciari, E., Raffi, I., Catanzariti, R., Pälike, H., Backman, J., and Rio, D., Newslett. Stratigr., 47, 131-181 (2014). Martini E., in: Farinacci, A. (Ed.), Proceedings 2nd International Conference Planktonic Microfossils Roma: Rome (Ed. Tecnosci.) 2, 739-785 (1971). Norris R.D., Wilson P.A., Blum P. and the IODP Expedition 342 Scientists, Proceedings of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program, 342, 1-148 (2012). Zachos J., Pagani M., Sloan L., Thomas E., Billups K., Science, 292, 686-693 (2001).

What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

2014-05-01

A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the arithmetic mean recurrence, λ, for the full records (λ=0.007 and 0.0125 Myr). This period of inactivity is coincident with a dramatic carbon isotopic excursion (i.e. warmest part of the IETM) and heavily skews statistical analyses for both records. Dramatic global warming appears to exert a strong control on inhibiting turbidity current activity; whereas the effects of sea level change are not shown to be statistically significant. Rapid global warming is often implicated as a potential landslide trigger, due to dissociation of gas hydrates in response to elevated ocean temperatures. Other studies have suggested that intense global warming may actually be attributed to the atmospheric release of gas hydrates following catastrophic failure of large parts of a continental slope. Either way, a greater intensity of landslide and resultant turbidity current activity would be expected during the IETM; however, our findings are to the contrary. We offer some explanations in relation to potential triggers. Our work suggests that previous rapid global warming at the IETM did not trigger more frequent turbidity currents. This has direct relevance to future assessments relating to landslide-triggered tsunami hazard, and breakage of subsea cables by turbidity currents.

Modest overall survival improvements from 1998 to 2009 in metastatic gastric cancer patients: a population-based SEER analysis.

PubMed

Ebinger, Sabrina M; Warschkow, René; Tarantino, Ignazio; Schmied, Bruno M; Güller, Ulrich; Schiesser, Marc

2016-07-01

An increasing fraction of gastric cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. The objective of the present 11-year population-based trend analysis was to assess the survival rates in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. Patients with metastatic gastric cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1998 and 2009. Time trend and impact of palliative gastrectomy on survival were assessed by both a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching. We identified 8249 patients with stage IV gastric cancer. The rate of metastatic disease increased from 31.0 % in 1998 to 37.5 % in 2009 (P < 0.001). The palliative gastrectomy rate dropped from 18.8 to 10.2 % (P = 0.004). The median survival for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (N = 1445, 17.4 %) and for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy (N = 6804, 82.4 %) was 7 and 3 months, respectively. There was an increase in median overall survival from 2 months (1998) to 3 months (2009) in the no-gastrectomy group, and from 6.5 to 8 months in the gastrectomy group. The 3-year cancer-specific survival rates were 2.1 % (95 % confidence interval 1.7-2.5 %) for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy and 9.4 % (95 % confidence interval 7.8-11.2 %) for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (P < 0.001). Palliative gastrectomy was associated with an increased cancer-specific survival in propensity-score-adjusted Cox regression analyses (hazard ratio 0.50, 95 % confidence interval 0.46-0.55, P < 0.001). On a population-based level, only modest improvements in prognosis for metastatic gastric cancer were observed in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. Considering the low rate of midterm survivors in both groups, only a small subgroup of patients benefits from palliative gastrectomy.

Department of Defense Precise Time and Time Interval program improvement plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowser, J. R.

1981-01-01

The United States Naval Observatory is responsible for ensuring uniformity in precise time and time interval operations including measurements, the establishment of overall DOD requirements for time and time interval, and the accomplishment of objectives requiring precise time and time interval with minimum cost. An overview of the objectives, the approach to the problem, the schedule, and a status report, including significant findings relative to organizational relationships, current directives, principal PTTI users, and future requirements as currently identified by the users are presented.

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)

Results of Hydraulic Tests in Miocene Tuffaceous Rocks at the C-Hole Complex, 1995 to 1997, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geldon, Arthur L.; Umari, Amjad M.A.; Fahy, Michael F.; Earle, John D.; Gemmell, James M.; Darnell, Jon

2002-01-01

Four hydraulic tests were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey at the C-hole complex at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, between May 1995 and November 1997. These tests were conducted as part of ongoing investigations to determine the hydrologic and geologic suitability of Yucca Mountain as a potential site for permanent underground storage of high-level nuclear waste. The C-hole complex consists of three 900-meter-deep boreholes that are 30.4 to 76.6 meters apart. The C-holes are completed in fractured, variably welded tuffaceous rocks of Miocene age. Six hydrogeologic intervals occur within the saturated zone in these boreholes - the Calico Hills, Prow Pass, Upper Bullfrog, Lower Bullfrog, Upper Tram, and Lower Tram intervals. The Lower Bullfrog and Upper Tram intervals contributed about 90 percent of the flow during hydraulic tests. The four hydraulic tests conducted from 1995 to 1997 lasted 4 to 553 days. Discharge from the pumping well, UE-25 c #3, ranged from 8.49 to 22.5 liters per second in different tests. Two to seven observation wells, 30 to 3,526 meters from the pumping well, were used in different tests. Observation wells included UE-25 c #1, UE-25 c #2, UE-25 ONC-1, USW H-4, UE-25 WT #14, and UE-25 WT #3 in the tuffaceous rocks and UE-25 p #1 in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. In all hydraulic tests, drawdown in the pumping well was rapid and large (2.9-11 meters). Attributable mostly to frictional head loss and borehole-skin effects, this drawdown could not be used to analyze hydraulic properties. Drawdown and recovery in intervals of UE-25 c #1 and UE-25 c #2 and in other observation wells typically was less than 51 centimeters. These data were analyzed. Hydrogeologic intervals in the C-holes have layered heterogeneity related to faults and fracture zones. Transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and storativity generally increase downhole. Transmissivity ranges from 4 to 1,600 meters squared per day; hydraulic conductivity ranges from 0.1 to 50 meters per day; and storativity ranges from 0.00002 to 0.002. Transmissivity in the Miocene tuffaceous rocks decreases from 2,600 to 700 meters squared per day northwesterly across the 21-square-kilometer area affected by hydraulic tests at the C-hole complex. The average transmissivity of the tuffaceous rocks in this area, as determined from plots of drawdown in most or all observation wells as functions of time or distance from the pumping well, is 2,100 to 2,600 meters squared per day. Average storativity determined from these plot ranges is 0.0005 to 0.002. Hydraulic conductivity ranges from less than 2 to more than 10 meters per day; it is largest where prominent northerly trending faults are closely spaced or intersected by northwesterly trending faults. During hydraulic tests, the Miocene tuffaceous rocks functioned as a single aquifer. Drawdown occurred in all monitored intervals of the C-holes and other observation wells, regardless of the hydrogeologic interval being pumped. This hydraulic connection across geologic and lithostratigraphic contacts is believed to result from interconnected faults, fractures, and intervals with large matrix permeability. Samples of UE-25 c #3 water, analyzed from 1995 to 1997, seem to indicate that changes in the quality of the water pumped from that well are probably due solely to lateral variations in water quality within the tuffaceous rocks.

Intake of individual saturated fatty acids and risk of coronary heart disease in US men and women: two prospective longitudinal cohort studies.

PubMed

Zong, Geng; Li, Yanping; Wanders, Anne J; Alssema, Marjan; Zock, Peter L; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B; Sun, Qi

2016-11-23

 To investigate the association between long term intake of individual saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and the risk of coronary heart disease, in two large cohort studies.  Prospective, longitudinal cohort study.  Health professionals in the United States.  73 147 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2012) and 42 635 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2010), who were free of major chronic diseases at baseline.  Incidence of coronary heart disease (n=7035) was self-reported, and related deaths were identified by searching National Death Index or through report of next of kin or postal authority. Cases were confirmed by medical records review.  Mean intake of SFAs accounted for 9.0-11.3% energy intake over time, and was mainly composed of lauric acid (12:0), myristic acid (14:0), palmitic acid (16:0), and stearic acid (18:0; 8.8-10.7% energy). Intake of 12:0, 14:0, 16:0 and 18:0 were highly correlated, with Spearman correlation coefficients between 0.38 and 0.93 (all P<0.001). Comparing the highest to the lowest groups of individual SFA intakes, hazard ratios of coronary heart disease were 1.07 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.15; P trend =0.05) for 12:0, 1.13 (1.05 to 1.22; P trend <0.001) for 14:0, 1.18 (1.09 to 1.27; P trend <0.001) for 16:0, 1.18 (1.09 to 1.28; P trend <0.001) for 18:0, and 1.18 (1.09 to 1.28; P trend <0.001) for all four SFAs combined (12:0-18:0), after multivariate adjustment of lifestyle factors and total energy intake. Hazard ratios of coronary heart disease for isocaloric replacement of 1% energy from 12:0-18:0 were 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.96; P<0.001) for polyunsaturated fat, 0.95 (0.90 to 1.01; P=0.08) for monounsaturated fat, 0.94 (0.91 to 0.97; P<0.001) for whole grain carbohydrates, and 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97; P=0.001) for plant proteins. For individual SFAs, the lowest risk of coronary heart disease was observed when the most abundant SFA, 16:0, was replaced. Hazard ratios of coronary heart disease for replacing 1% energy from 16:0 were 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96; P=0.002) for polyunsaturated fat, 0.92 (0.83 to 1.02; P=0.10) for monounsaturated fat, 0.90 (0.83 to 0.97; P=0.01) for whole grain carbohydrates, and 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97; P=0.01) for plant proteins.  Higher dietary intakes of major SFAs are associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease. Owing to similar associations and high correlations among individual SFAs, dietary recommendations for the prevention of coronary heart disease should continue to focus on replacing total saturated fat with more healthy sources of energy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Antioxidant compounds of kiwifruit during post-ripening process at ambient temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Lv, X. L.; Wang, J.; Xia, H.; Xie, Y.; Li, M. Z.; Wang, Y. Z.

2017-09-01

Kiwifruit is well-known for an excellent source of antioxidants. In this study, contents of total phenolics (TPC), total flavonoids (TFC), total flavanols (TFAC) and vitamin C were investigated in different fruit tissues during post-ripening process at ambient temperature. The results explored that TPC and TFC showed declining trend with the increase in storage interval in different tissues. TFAC raised with the increase in storage interval in different fruit tissues, while was followed a decrease in later process. Vitamin C content was stable in outer and inner pericarp in prometaphase of post-ripening.